Putting an end to nuclear energy: why and how

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard

2011-01-01

This short book demonstrates the necessity and possibility to put an end to nuclear energy. First, it sweeps away the fallacious reasoning of nuclear supporters, like the energy independence, the safety and security aspects, the electricity cost, the greenhouse gases abatement. Then, it replaces the ending of nuclear energy in the more general framework of a worldwide energy transition, with its constraints and risks, which has become a necessity considering the geographical disparities of energy consumption. According to the author, the particular energy situation of France would lead the country to isolation and to an energy impasse while other worldwide and regional scenarios exist which would lead to exit the crisis and to reach a new energy civilization. Finally, a reasoned scenario of nuclear energy exit is proposed for France which is based on other power generation means. Such an energy transition will require some political and social conditions which are discussed. (J.S.)

Peculiarities in the distribution of galactic Wolf-Rayet stars: constraints on evolutionary scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez, A.; Lortet, M.-C.; Pitault, A.

1981-01-01

The re-examination of the spatial distribution of 158 Wolf-Rayet stars in the Galaxy may help to define different breeds of Wolf-Rayet stars and put constraints on possible evolutionary scenarios. (Auth.)

Structural characterization of the stringent response related exopolyphosphatase/guanosine pentaphosphate phosphohydrolase protein family

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Ole; Laurberg, Martin; Liljas, Anders

2004-01-01

Exopolyphosphatase/guanosine pentaphosphate phosphohydrolase (PPX/GPPA) enzymes play central roles in the bacterial stringent response induced by starvation. The high-resolution crystal structure of the putative Aquifex aeolicus PPX/GPPA phosphatase from the actin-like ATPase domain superfamily has...

Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

2013-06-01

A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

Synthetic Peptides to Target Stringent Response-Controlled Virulence in a Pseudomonas aeruginosa Murine Cutaneous Infection Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Pletzer

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Microorganisms continuously monitor their surroundings and adaptively respond to environmental cues. One way to cope with various stress-related situations is through the activation of the stringent stress response pathway. In Pseudomonas aeruginosa this pathway is controlled and coordinated by the activity of the RelA and SpoT enzymes that metabolize the small nucleotide secondary messenger molecule (pppGpp. Intracellular ppGpp concentrations are crucial in mediating adaptive responses and virulence. Targeting this cellular stress response has recently been the focus of an alternative approach to fight antibiotic resistant bacteria. Here, we examined the role of the stringent response in the virulence of P. aeruginosa PAO1 and the Liverpool epidemic strain LESB58. A ΔrelA/ΔspoT double mutant showed decreased cytotoxicity toward human epithelial cells, exhibited reduced hemolytic activity, and caused down-regulation of the expression of the alkaline protease aprA gene in stringent response mutants grown on blood agar plates. Promoter fusions of relA or spoT to a bioluminescence reporter gene revealed that both genes were expressed during the formation of cutaneous abscesses in mice. Intriguingly, virulence was attenuated in vivo by the ΔrelA/ΔspoT double mutant, but not the relA mutant nor the ΔrelA/ΔspoT complemented with either gene. Treatment of a cutaneous P. aeruginosa PAO1 infection with anti-biofilm peptides increased animal welfare, decreased dermonecrotic lesion sizes, and reduced bacterial numbers recovered from abscesses, resembling the phenotype of the ΔrelA/ΔspoT infection. It was previously demonstrated by our lab that ppGpp could be targeted by synthetic peptides; here we demonstrated that spoT promoter activity was suppressed during cutaneous abscess formation by treatment with peptides DJK-5 and 1018, and that a peptide-treated relA complemented stringent response double mutant strain exhibited reduced peptide

Ten Year Study of the Stringently Defined Otitis Prone Child in Rochester, NY

Science.gov (United States)

Pichichero, Michael E.

2016-01-01

This review summarizes a prospective, longitudinal 10-year study in Rochester NY with virtually every clinically diagnosed acute otitis media (AOM) confirmed by bacterial culture of middle ear fluid. Children experiencing 3 episodes within 6 months or 4 episodes in 12 months were considered stringently-defined otitis prone (sOP). We found stringent diagnosis compared with clinical diagnosis reduced the frequency of children meeting the OP definition from 27% to 6% resulting in 14.8% and 2.4% receiving tympanostomy tubes, respectively. Significantly more often RSV infection led to AOM in sOP than non-otitis prone (NOP) children that correlated with diminished total RSV-specific serum IgG. sOP children produced low levels of antibody to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae candidate vaccine protein antigens and to routine pediatric vaccines. sOP children generated significantly fewer memory B cells, functional and memory T cells to otopathogens following NP colonization and AOM than NOP children and they had defects in antigen presenting cells. PMID:27273691

Stringent homology-based prediction of H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv protein-protein interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Hufeng; Gao, Shangzhi; Nguyen, Nam Ninh; Fan, Mengyuan; Jin, Jingjing; Liu, Bing; Zhao, Liang; Xiong, Geng; Tan, Min; Li, Shijun; Wong, Limsoon

2014-04-08

H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv protein-protein interaction (PPI) data are essential for understanding the infection mechanism of the formidable pathogen M. tuberculosis H37Rv. Computational prediction is an important strategy to fill the gap in experimental H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPI data. Homology-based prediction is frequently used in predicting both intra-species and inter-species PPIs. However, some limitations are not properly resolved in several published works that predict eukaryote-prokaryote inter-species PPIs using intra-species template PPIs. We develop a stringent homology-based prediction approach by taking into account (i) differences between eukaryotic and prokaryotic proteins and (ii) differences between inter-species and intra-species PPI interfaces. We compare our stringent homology-based approach to a conventional homology-based approach for predicting host-pathogen PPIs, based on cellular compartment distribution analysis, disease gene list enrichment analysis, pathway enrichment analysis and functional category enrichment analysis. These analyses support the validity of our prediction result, and clearly show that our approach has better performance in predicting H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPIs. Using our stringent homology-based approach, we have predicted a set of highly plausible H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPIs which might be useful for many of related studies. Based on our analysis of the H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPI network predicted by our stringent homology-based approach, we have discovered several interesting properties which are reported here for the first time. We find that both host proteins and pathogen proteins involved in the host-pathogen PPIs tend to be hubs in their own intra-species PPI network. Also, both host and pathogen proteins involved in host-pathogen PPIs tend to have longer primary sequence, tend to have more domains, tend to be more hydrophilic, etc. And the protein domains from both

The Stringent Response Induced by Phosphate Limitation Promotes Purine Salvage in Agrobacterium fabrum.

Science.gov (United States)

Sivapragasam, Smitha; Deochand, Dinesh K; Meariman, Jacob K; Grove, Anne

2017-10-31

Agrobacterium fabrum induces tumor growth in susceptible plant species. The upregulation of virulence genes that occurs when the bacterium senses plant-derived compounds is enhanced by acidic pH and limiting inorganic phosphate. Nutrient starvation may also trigger the stringent response, and purine salvage is among the pathways expected to be favored under such conditions. We show here that phosphate limitation induces the stringent response, as evidenced by production of (p)ppGpp, and that the xdhCSML operon encoding the purine salvage enzyme xanthine dehydrogenase is upregulated ∼15-fold. The xdhCSML operon is under control of the TetR family transcription factor XdhR; direct binding of ppGpp to XdhR attenuates DNA binding, and the enhanced xdhCSML expression correlates with increased cellular levels of (p)ppGpp. Xanthine dehydrogenase may also divert purines away from salvage pathways to form urate, the ligand for the transcription factor PecS, which in the plant pathogen Dickeya dadantii is a key regulator of virulence gene expression. However, urate levels remain low under conditions that produce increased levels of xdhCSML expression, and neither acidic pH nor limiting phosphate results in induction of genes under control of PecS. Instead, expression of such genes is induced only by externally supplemented urate. Taken together, our data indicate that purine salvage is favored during the stringent response induced by phosphate starvation, suggesting that control of this pathway may constitute a novel approach to modulating virulence. Because bacterial purine catabolism appears to be unaffected, as evidenced by the absence of urate accumulation, we further propose that the PecS regulon is induced by only host-derived urate.

Convergent Validity of the PUTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valerie Cathérine Brandt

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Premonitory urges are a cardinal feature in Gilles de la Tourette syndrome. Severity of premonitory urges can be assessed with the Premonitory Urge for Tic Disorders Scale (PUTS. However, convergent validity of the measure has been difficult to assess due to the lack of other urge measures.We investigated the relationship between average real-time urge intensity assessed by an in-house developed real-time urge monitor, measuring urge intensity continuously for 5mins on a visual analogue scale, and general urge intensity assessed by the PUTS in 22 adult Tourette patients (mean age 29.8+/- 10.3; 19 male. Additionally, underlying factors of premonitory urges assessed by the PUTS were investigated in the adult sample using factor analysis and were replicated in 40 children and adolescents diagnosed with Tourette syndrome (mean age 12.05 +/- 2.83 SD, 31 male.Cronbach’s alpha for the PUTS10 was acceptable (α = .79 in the adult sample. Convergent validity between average real-time urge intensity scores (as assessed with the real-time urge monitor and the 10-item version of the PUTS (r = .64 and the 9-item version of the PUTS (r = .66 was good. A factor analysis including the 10 items of the PUTS and average real-time urge intensity scores revealed three factors. One factor included the average real-time urge intensity score and appeared to measure urge intensity, while the other two factors can be assumed to reflect the (sensory quality of urges and subjective control, respectively. The factor structure of the 10 PUTS items alone was replicated in a sample of children and adolescents.The results indicate that convergent validity between the PUTS and the real-time urge assessment monitor is good. Furthermore, the results suggest that the PUTS might assess more than one dimension of urges and it may be worthwhile developing different sub-scales of the PUTS assessing premonitory urges in terms of intensity and quality, as well as subjectively

Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Dongjin; Choi, Kwangsoon; Yoon, Hyungjoon; Park, Jungsu [KEPCO-E and C, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage.

Stringent or nonstringent complete remission and prognosis in acute myeloid leukemia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Øvlisen, Andreas K; Oest, Anders; Bendtsen, Mette D

2018-01-01

Stringent complete remission (sCR) of acute myeloid leukemia is defined as normal hematopoiesis after therapy. Less sCR, including non-sCR, was introduced as insufficient blood platelet, neutrophil, or erythrocyte recovery. These latter characteristics were defined retrospectively as postremission...... transfusion dependency and were suggested to be of prognostic value. In the present report, we evaluated the prognostic impact of achieving sCR and non-sCR in the Danish National Acute Leukaemia Registry, including 769 patients registered with classical CR (ie,

Putting instruction sequences into effect

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bergstra, J.A.

2011-01-01

An attempt is made to define the concept of execution of an instruction sequence. It is found to be a special case of directly putting into effect of an instruction sequence. Directly putting into effect of an instruction sequences comprises interpretation as well as execution. Directly putting into

Scenarios and the design process in medical application

OpenAIRE

Rasoulifar , Rahi; Thomann , Guillaume; Villeneuve , François

2009-01-01

6 pages; International audience; How to make healthcare products and systems fit the work they are to support is a question that has received growing attention over the last decade. In most of the studies trying to answer this question, engineers put an effort to provide the best possible technical solution, but they dispose the important position of users. Design studies in different domains indicated a focus on the users and proposed some methodologies and tools. Scenario-based design as a ...

Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Kate; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kim, Sonny; Kopp, Robert; Kyle, Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall

2012-01-01

We explore the implications that alternative pathways for human population and economic development have for the role of Asia in reference no-climate-policy scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different pathways of socioeconomic development, which we refer to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world's future with nearly half of the world's people and more than half of the world's economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asia and the world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved. - Highlights: ► We explore the implications of alternative population and economic pathways for the role of Asia. ► High population world places significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. ► In high population world, the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices. ► The greater level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor people experience. ► The greater the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems preserved.

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

Sensorimotor Rhythm Neurofeedback Enhances Golf Putting Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Ming-Yang; Huang, Chung-Ju; Chang, Yu-Kai; Koester, Dirk; Schack, Thomas; Hung, Tsung-Min

2015-12-01

Sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) activity has been related to automaticity during skilled action execution. However, few studies have bridged the causal link between SMR activity and sports performance. This study investigated the effect of SMR neurofeedback training (SMR NFT) on golf putting performance. We hypothesized that preelite golfers would exhibit enhanced putting performance after SMR NFT. Sixteen preelite golfers were recruited and randomly assigned into either an SMR or a control group. Participants were asked to perform putting while electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded, both before and after intervention. Our results showed that the SMR group performed more accurately when putting and exhibited greater SMR power than the control group after 8 intervention sessions. This study concludes that SMR NFT is effective for increasing SMR during action preparation and for enhancing golf putting performance. Moreover, greater SMR activity might be an EEG signature of improved attention processing, which induces superior putting performance.

The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

2017-12-01

The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin Ten Haaf

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST results indicate that computed tomography (CT lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria.This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP, Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars, and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars per life-year gained

Augmenting the Genetic Toolbox for Sulfolobus islandicus with a Stringent Positive Selectable Marker for Agmatine Prototrophy

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Tara E.; Krause, David J.

2013-01-01

Sulfolobus species have become the model organisms for studying the unique biology of the crenarchaeal division of the archaeal domain. In particular, Sulfolobus islandicus provides a powerful opportunity to explore natural variation via experimental functional genomics. To support these efforts, we further expanded genetic tools for S. islandicus by developing a stringent positive selection for agmatine prototrophs in strains in which the argD gene, encoding arginine decarboxylase, has been deleted. Strains with deletions in argD were shown to be auxotrophic for agmatine even in nutrient-rich medium, but growth could be restored by either supplementation of exogenous agmatine or reintroduction of a functional copy of the argD gene from S. solfataricus P2 into the ΔargD host. Using this stringent selection, a robust targeted gene knockout system was established via an improved next generation of the MID (marker insertion and unmarked target gene deletion) method. Application of this novel system was validated by targeted knockout of the upsEF genes involved in UV-inducible cell aggregation formation. PMID:23835176

Air Quality and Health Benefits of China's Recent Stringent Environmental Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Y.; Xue, T.; Zhang, Q.; Geng, G.; He, K.

2016-12-01

Aggressive emission control measures were taken by China's central and local governments after the promulgation of the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" in 2013. We evaluated the air quality and health benefits of this ever most stringent air pollution control policy during 2013-2015 by utilizing a two-stage data fusion model and newly-developed cause-specific integrated exposure-response functions (IER) developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). The two-stage data fusion model predicts spatiotemporal continuous PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) concentrations by integrating satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements, PM2.5 concentrations from measurement and air quality model, and other ancillary information. During the years of analysis, PM2.5 concentration dropped significantly on national average and over heavily polluted regions as identified by Mann-Kendall analysis. The national PM2.5-attributable mortality decreased by 72.8 (95% CI: 59.4, 85.2) thousand (6%) from 1.23 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.39) million in 2013 to 1.15 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.31) million in 2015 due to considerable reduction (i.e. 18%) of population-weighted PM2.5 from 61.4 to 50.5 µg/m3. Meteorological variations between 2013 and 2015 were estimated to raise the PM2.5 levels by 0.24 µg/m3 and national mortality by 2.1 (95% CI: 1.6, 2.6) thousand through sensitivity tests, which implies the dominant role of anthropogenic impacts on PM2.5 abatement and attributable mortality reduction. Our study affirms the effectiveness of China's recent air quality policy, however, due to the possible supralinear shape of C-R functions, health benefits induced by air quality improvement in these years are limited. We therefore appeal for continuous implementation of current policies and further stringent measures from both air quality improvement and public health protection perspectives.

A negawatt scenario for 2005 - 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salomon, Thierry [Izuba Energies, Meze (France); Couturier, Christian [Solagro, Toulouse (France); Jedliczka, Marc [Hespul, Villeurbanne (France); Letz, Thomas [Asder, Chambery (France); Lebot, Benoit [United Nations Development Programme - Global Environment Facility Unit, New York (United States)

2005-07-01

The sad perspective of climate change combined with the foreseen depletion of fossil energy in the coming decades impose a radical change in the way we collect, transform, distribute, use and save energy in our modern economies. Over the past few years, many European Governments have made calls and announced plans to reduce by 60 to 80% their national Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2050. The present paper summarises the approach, the assumptions and the findings of a scenario performed by an multidisciplinary team for defining a sustainable energy path for a major European country. The scenario uniquely relies on three complementary steps: energy sufficiency, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The analysis clearly indicates the importance of engaging major energy conservation programmes now and in all sectors of the economy if we want to indeed influence greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and longer term. The paper describes and discusses the key policies that need to be put in place for each sector in the short term. The paper concludes on side benefits of renewed energy conservation efforts (like perspective on local employments) as well as the complementarities and the synergies of policies and measures between local, national and European levels.

2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

2013-01-01

emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors...... of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A Current Policy Scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an Ambitious Policy Scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement......In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more...

Simulation scenarios for rapid reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in the western electricity system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ford, Andrew

2008-01-01

This paper describes a computer simulation analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in the electric power system in the western United States. Legislation at both the state and federal level would impose a price on emissions via cap-and-trade in allowances for carbon dioxide emissions. The simulation scenarios for the western system indicate that dramatic reductions in emissions are possible with generating technologies that exist today. Wind and biomass generators play a key role even with conservative assumptions about their future costs. In contrast, generation from advanced technologies provide only a minor contribution by the year 2025. These scenarios provide support to those who argue that the US should move expeditiously to put a price on carbon dixoide emissions

Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

2016-06-01

The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D. Danny

2014-01-01

This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value. - Highlights: • A detailed model for generating global scenarios of building energy use is presented. • Drivers of increasing energy use are population and per capita GDP in 10 regions. • Heating, cooling and ventilation energy uses are projected using a stock turnover model. • Global building fuel demand could decrease by 60–80% by 2100 relative to 2010. • Global building electricity demand could be limited to a 100–200% increase

76 FR 31851 - Safety Zone; Put-in-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock Pier; South Bass Island, Put-in-Bay, OH

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-02

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 [Docket No. USCG-2011-0417] RIN 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Put-in-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock Pier; South Bass Island, Put-in-Bay, OH AGENCY.... Add Sec. 165.T09-0417 as follows: Sec. 165.T09-0417 Safety Zone; Put-In-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock...

Induction of a stringent metabolic response in intracellular stages of Leishmania mexicana leads to increased dependence on mitochondrial metabolism.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eleanor C Saunders

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Leishmania parasites alternate between extracellular promastigote stages in the insect vector and an obligate intracellular amastigote stage that proliferates within the phagolysosomal compartment of macrophages in the mammalian host. Most enzymes involved in Leishmania central carbon metabolism are constitutively expressed and stage-specific changes in energy metabolism remain poorly defined. Using (13C-stable isotope resolved metabolomics and (2H2O labelling, we show that amastigote differentiation is associated with reduction in growth rate and induction of a distinct stringent metabolic state. This state is characterized by a global decrease in the uptake and utilization of glucose and amino acids, a reduced secretion of organic acids and increased fatty acid β-oxidation. Isotopomer analysis showed that catabolism of hexose and fatty acids provide C4 dicarboxylic acids (succinate/malate and acetyl-CoA for the synthesis of glutamate via a compartmentalized mitochondrial tricarboxylic acid (TCA cycle. In vitro cultivated and intracellular amastigotes are acutely sensitive to inhibitors of mitochondrial aconitase and glutamine synthetase, indicating that these anabolic pathways are essential for intracellular growth and virulence. Lesion-derived amastigotes exhibit a similar metabolism to in vitro differentiated amastigotes, indicating that this stringent response is coupled to differentiation signals rather than exogenous nutrient levels. Induction of a stringent metabolic response may facilitate amastigote survival in a nutrient-poor intracellular niche and underlie the increased dependence of this stage on hexose and mitochondrial metabolism.

Securing energy efficiency as a high priority. Scenarios for common appliance electricity consumption in Thailand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foran, T. [Unit for Social and Environmental Research USER, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, P.O. Box 144, Chiang Mai, 50200 (Thailand); Du Pont, P.T. [International Resources Group and Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Bangkok (Thailand); Parinya, P. [The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut' s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok (Thailand); Phumaraphand, N. [Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Nonthaburi (Thailand)

2010-11-15

Between 1995 and 2008, Thailand's energy efficiency programs produced an estimated total of 8,369 GWh/year energy savings and 1,471 MW avoided peak power. Despite these impressive saving figures, relatively little future scenario analysis is available to policy makers. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, electricity planners forecasted 5-6% long-term increases in demand. We explored options for efficiency improvements in Thailand's residential sector, which consumes more than 20% of Thailand's total electricity consumption of 150 TWh/year. We constructed baseline and efficient scenarios for the period 2006-2026, for air conditioners, refrigerators, fans, rice cookers, and compact fluorescent light bulbs. We drew on an appliance database maintained by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand's voluntary labeling program. For the five appliances modeled, the efficiency scenario results in total savings of 12% of baseline consumption after 10 years and 29% of baseline after 20 years. Approximately 80% of savings come from more stringent standards for air conditioners, including phasing out unregulated air conditioner sales within 6 years. Shifting appliance efficiency standards to current best-in-market levels within 6 years produces additional savings. We discuss institutional aspects of energy planning in Thailand that thus far have limited the consideration of energy efficiency as a high-priority resource.

Bi-national Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin climate change and hydrologic scenarios report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavender, B.; Smith, J.V.; Koshida, G.; Mortsch, L.D. [eds.

1998-09-01

Climate experts in government, industry and academic institutions have put together a national assessment of how climate change will affect Canadians and their social, biological and economic environment over the next century. This volume documents the impacts and implications of climate change on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin, and provides an analysis and assessment of various climate and hydrologic scenarios used for the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Basin Project. As part of the analysis and assessment, results from the Canadian Climate Centre second-generation General Circulation Model and four transposition scenarios for both climate and hydrological resources are reviewed. The objective is to provide an indication of sensitivities and vulnerabilities of the region to climate, with a view to improve adaptation to potential climate changes. 25 tabs., 26 figs. figs.

Putting Emotional Intelligence To Work

CERN Document Server

Ryback, David

2012-01-01

Putting Emotional Intelligence to Work offers a new paradigm of communication for the 21st-century workplace. Beginning with the thoughts of communication pioneer Carl Rogers, this book covers the origins and history of emotional intelligence, why it is essential at this point in the changing marketplace, how to delegate and negotiate more effectively, and how to change yourself to become a more effective player. An EQ (Emotional Quotient) survey helps you determine where you are on the scale of executive intelligence. Putting Emotional Intelligence to Work leaves you with a greater understand

Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

2010-12-15

The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Integration of power over fiber on RoF systems in different scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Vázquez, C.; Montero, D. S.; Pinzón, P. J.; López-Cardona, J. D.; Contreras, P.; Tapetado, A.

2017-01-01

Future high capacity of the 5th Generation radio environment will boost transport networks to be adapted. The high bandwidth, together with stringent delay and jitter requirements, make dedicated optical connectivity a preferred solution for fronthaul. Those Radio Access Networks apart from higher capacity and lower latency should have higher energy efficiency. In order to cover this aspect, power over fiber has been pointed out as a key technology for that purpose having in mind that control plane will be centralized on future Cloud RAN and that sometimes Remote Radio Heads should be deployed in places lacking external power supply in order to fulfill the desired coverage. In this paper, different scenarios on potential demanding environments of power over fiber on Radio over Fiber systems such as automotive, in-house and remote mobile fronthaul will be discussed. Some tests on power over fiber systems based on different optical fibers are provided.

2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

2013-01-01

In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A current policy scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an ambitious policy scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement are proposed. The two energy pathways are modeled and compared in terms of technology combination, non-fossil fuel shares of primary energy supply, socioeconomic costs, and CO 2 emissions. The insights from these pathways can provide valuable input for Jiangsu's future energy policies. - Highlights: ► An integrated energy pathway is designed for Jiangsu province by 2050. ► A current policy scenario and an ambitious policy scenario are modeled and assessed. ► The ambitious policy scenario can help stabilize CO 2 emissions and achieve better economy. ► The next 5–10 years would be a key period for Jiangsu's energy system transition. ► Several policy suggestions have been proposed.

Putting an end to nuclear energy: why and how; En finir avec le nucleaire: pourquoi et comment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard

2011-10-06

This short book demonstrates the necessity and possibility to put an end to nuclear energy. First, it sweeps away the fallacious reasoning of nuclear supporters, like the energy independence, the safety and security aspects, the electricity cost, the greenhouse gases abatement. Then, it replaces the ending of nuclear energy in the more general framework of a worldwide energy transition, with its constraints and risks, which has become a necessity considering the geographical disparities of energy consumption. According to the author, the particular energy situation of France would lead the country to isolation and to an energy impasse while other worldwide and regional scenarios exist which would lead to exit the crisis and to reach a new energy civilization. Finally, a reasoned scenario of nuclear energy exit is proposed for France which is based on other power generation means. Such an energy transition will require some political and social conditions which are discussed. (J.S.)

Dual Regulation of Bacillus subtilis kinB Gene Encoding a Sporulation Trigger by SinR through Transcription Repression and Positive Stringent Transcription Control.

Science.gov (United States)

Fujita, Yasutaro; Ogura, Mitsuo; Nii, Satomi; Hirooka, Kazutake

2017-01-01

It is known that transcription of kinB encoding a trigger for Bacillus subtilis sporulation is under repression by SinR, a master repressor of biofilm formation, and under positive stringent transcription control depending on the adenine species at the transcription initiation nucleotide (nt). Deletion and base substitution analyses of the kinB promoter (P kinB ) region using lacZ fusions indicated that either a 5-nt deletion (Δ5, nt -61/-57, +1 is the transcription initiation nt) or the substitution of G at nt -45 with A (G-45A) relieved kinB repression. Thus, we found a pair of SinR-binding consensus sequences (GTTCTYT; Y is T or C) in an inverted orientation (SinR-1) between nt -57/-42, which is most likely a SinR-binding site for kinB repression. This relief from SinR repression likely requires SinI, an antagonist of SinR. Surprisingly, we found that SinR is essential for positive stringent transcription control of P kinB . Electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) analysis indicated that SinR bound not only to SinR-1 but also to SinR-2 (nt -29/-8) consisting of another pair of SinR consensus sequences in a tandem repeat arrangement; the two sequences partially overlap the '-35' and '-10' regions of P kinB . Introduction of base substitutions (T-27C C-26T) in the upstream consensus sequence of SinR-2 affected positive stringent transcription control of P kinB , suggesting that SinR binding to SinR-2 likely causes this positive control. EMSA also implied that RNA polymerase and SinR are possibly bound together to SinR-2 to form a transcription initiation complex for kinB transcription. Thus, it was suggested in this work that derepression of kinB from SinR repression by SinI induced by Spo0A∼P and occurrence of SinR-dependent positive stringent transcription control of kinB might induce effective sporulation cooperatively, implying an intimate interplay by stringent response, sporulation, and biofilm formation.

A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moerkerk, Mike van; Crijns-Graus, Wina

2016-01-01

For many countries, the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running. Oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro-chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves. In this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the European Union, United States, China, Japan and India (being the five largest importers of oil in the world), based on their current supplier portfolio. Scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil-supply projections. It is found that risks increase strongly, when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented, especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account, resulting in major oil supply-disruptions. China faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of India, China and US converge over time due to increasing import dependency of China and India. Japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification. For the EU, all figures are strongly influenced by Russia, accounting for 32% of total imports, and to a lesser extent Norway (11%), with high overall risks. - Highlights: • External oil supply risks are assessed up to 2035 under different scenarios. • Included countries are EU, US, China, Japan and India (largest importers of oil). • India, China and EU show increasing oil supply risks in all scenarios. • Strong climate policies are needed to reduce future risks. • A constructed peak oil scenario predicts major oil supply disruptions.

A Call-Put Duality for Perpetual American Options

OpenAIRE

Alfonsi, Aurélien; Jourdain, Benjamin

2006-01-01

International audience; It is well known that in models with time-homogeneous local volatility functions and constant interest and dividend rates, the European Put prices are transformed into European Call prices by the simultaneous exchanges of the interest and dividend rates and of the strike and spot price of the underlying. This paper investigates such a Call Put duality for perpetual American options. It turns out that the perpetual American Put price is equal to the perpetual American C...

Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Basovníková

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

Putting Flow–Ecology Relationships into Practice: A Decision-Support System to Assess Fish Community Response to Water-Management Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Cartwright

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

2017-01-01

This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dinkelman, G.

1987-11-01

Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michelini, M.

2001-01-01

In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

Stringent limits on the ionized mass loss from A and F dwarfs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, A.; Veale, A.; Judge, P.; Bookbinder, J.A.; Hubeny, I.

1990-01-01

Following the suggestion of Willson et al. (1987) that A- and F-type main-sequence stars might undergo significant mass loss due to pulsationally driven winds, upper limits to the ionized mass loss from A and F dwarfs have been obtained using VLA observations. These stringent upper limits show that the level of ionized mass loss would have at most only a small effect on stellar evolution. Radiative-equilibrium atmospheric and wind models for early A dwarfs indicate that it is highly likely that a wind flowing from such stars would be significantly ionized. In addition, late A and early F dwarfs exhibit chromospheric emission indicative of significant nonradiative heating. The present mass-loss limits are thus representative of the total mass-loss rates for these stars. It is concluded that A and F dwarfs are not losing sufficient mass to cause A dwarfs to evolve into G dwarfs. 24 refs

Privacy-Preserving Data Aggregation Protocol for Fog Computing-Assisted Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanan Chen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I communication enables moving vehicles to upload real-time data about road surface situation to the Internet via fixed roadside units (RSU. Thanks to the resource restriction of mobile vehicles, fog computation-enhanced V2I communication scenario has received increasing attention recently. However, how to aggregate the sensed data from vehicles securely and efficiently still remains open to the V2I communication scenario. In this paper, a light-weight and anonymous aggregation protocol is proposed for the fog computing-based V2I communication scenario. With the proposed protocol, the data collected by the vehicles can be efficiently obtained by the RSU in a privacy-preserving manner. Particularly, we first suggest a certificateless aggregate signcryption (CL-A-SC scheme and prove its security in the random oracle model. The suggested CL-A-SC scheme, which is of independent interest, can achieve the merits of certificateless cryptography and signcryption scheme simultaneously. Then we put forward the anonymous aggregation protocol for V2I communication scenario as one extension of the suggested CL-A-SC scheme. Security analysis demonstrates that the proposed aggregation protocol achieves desirable security properties. The performance comparison shows that the proposed protocol significantly reduces the computation and communication overhead compared with the up-to-date protocols in this field.

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Valuing put options on single stock futures: Does the put-call parity relationship hold in the South African derivatives market?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A Biebuyck

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This study attempts to determine whether mispricing of options on single stock futures is present in the South African derivatives market. The valuation of options on single stock futures is considered through the put-call parity relationship. The theoretical fair values obtained, are compared to the actual market values over a period of three years, that is, from 2009 to 2011. Only put options are considered in this research.The results show that arbitrage put option opportunities do present themselves for the chosen shares. The actual put options were found to be underpriced in 5 out of 6 (83% of the cases considered over the evaluation periods chosen. The mispricing was significant for both the BHP Billiton options with 100% and in the case of Sasol options (66% of the time. Whether profitable arbitrage opportunities is possible, will depend on the magnitude of the mispricing and the transaction fees payable. Further, more extensive research may help identify tendencies which may be of use for the formulation of arbitrage strategies

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Whole-Genome Microarray and Gene Deletion Studies Reveal Regulation of the Polyhydroxyalkanoate Production Cycle by the Stringent Response in Ralstonia eutropha H16

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brigham, CJ; Speth, DR; Rha, C; Sinskey, AJ

2012-10-22

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) production and mobilization in Ralstonia eutropha are well studied, but in only a few instances has PHB production been explored in relation to other cellular processes. We examined the global gene expression of wild-type R. eutropha throughout the PHB cycle: growth on fructose, PHB production using fructose following ammonium depletion, and PHB utilization in the absence of exogenous carbon after ammonium was resupplied. Our results confirm or lend support to previously reported results regarding the expression of PHB-related genes and enzymes. Additionally, genes for many different cellular processes, such as DNA replication, cell division, and translation, are selectively repressed during PHB production. In contrast, the expression levels of genes under the control of the alternative sigma factor sigma(54) increase sharply during PHB production and are repressed again during PHB utilization. Global gene regulation during PHB production is strongly reminiscent of the gene expression pattern observed during the stringent response in other species. Furthermore, a ppGpp synthase deletion mutant did not show an accumulation of PHB, and the chemical induction of the stringent response with DL-norvaline caused an increased accumulation of PHB in the presence of ammonium. These results indicate that the stringent response is required for PHB accumulation in R. eutropha, helping to elucidate a thus-far-unknown physiological basis for this process.

City-specific vehicle emission control strategies to achieve stringent emission reduction targets in China's Yangtze River Delta region.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Zhao, Bin; Wu, Xiaomeng; Shu, Jiawei; Hao, Jiming

2017-01-01

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is one of the most prosperous and densely populated regions in China and is facing tremendous pressure to mitigate vehicle emissions and improve air quality. Our assessment has revealed that mitigating vehicle emissions of NOx would be more difficult than reducing the emissions of other major vehicular pollutants (e.g., CO, HC and PM 2.5 ) in the YRD region. Even in Shanghai, where the emission control implemented are more stringent than in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, we observed little to no reduction in NOx emissions from 2000 to 2010. Emission-reduction targets for HC, NOx and PM 2.5 are determined using a response surface modeling tool for better air quality. We design city-specific emission control strategies for three vehicle-populated cities in the YRD region: Shanghai and Nanjing and Wuxi in Jiangsu. Our results indicate that even if stringent emission control consisting of the Euro 6/VI standards, the limitation of vehicle population and usage, and the scrappage of older vehicles is applied, Nanjing and Wuxi will not be able to meet the NOx emissions target by 2020. Therefore, additional control measures are proposed for Nanjing and Wuxi to further mitigate NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Heterogeneous Deployment to Meet Traffic Demand in a Realistic LTE Urban Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Coletti, Claudio; Hu, Liang; Nguyen, Huan Cong

2012-01-01

growth of mo-bile broadband traffic. Emphasis is put on how to optimally as-sign the spectrum for the different networks layers in an evolved HetNet including outdoor and indoor small cells. The study is conducted for a “Hot-Zone” scenario, i.e. a high-traffic area within a realistic dense urban...... performance with a minimum user data rate of 1 Mbps is achieved when deploying small cells on dedicated channels rather than co-channel deployment. Fur-thermore, the joint pico and femto deployment turns out to be the right trade-off between increased base station density and en-hanced network capacity....

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madlener, Reinhard; Kowalski, Katharina; Stagl, Sigrid

2007-01-01

Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders

Sex Discrimination and Intercollegiate Athletics: Putting Some Muscle on Title IX.

Science.gov (United States)

Yale Law Journal, 1979

1979-01-01

Argues that the general language of the Title IX statute, together with certain specific features of it, strongly suggests that the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare should develop more stringent and demanding regulations based on social policy considerations concerning sex discrimination in intercollegiate sports. Available from Yale…

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

ICRP putting wealth before health

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Green, P.

1990-01-01

Reductions in recommended dose limits for radiation workers set by the International Commission for Radiological Protection do not go far enough. The ICRP has put industry profitability before worker safety, and their recommendations should not be the basis for UK or European law. (author)

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Biophysical investigation of type A PutAs reveals a conserved core oligomeric structure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Korasick, David A. [Department of Biochemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Singh, Harkewal [Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Pemberton, Travis A. [Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Luo, Min [Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Dhatwalia, Richa [Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Tanner, John J. [Department of Biochemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA

2017-08-01

Many enzymes form homooligomers, yet the functional significance of self-association is seldom obvious. Herein, we examine the connection between oligomerization and catalytic function for proline utilization A (PutA) enzymes. PutAs are bifunctional enzymes that catalyze both reactions of proline catabolism. Type A PutAs are the smallest members of the family, possessing a minimal domain architecture consisting of N-terminal proline dehydrogenase and C-terminal l-glutamate-γ-semialdehyde dehydrogenase modules. Type A PutAs form domain-swapped dimers, and in one case (Bradyrhizobium japonicum PutA), two of the dimers assemble into a ring-shaped tetramer. Whereas the dimer has a clear role in substrate channeling, the functional significance of the tetramer is unknown. To address this question, we performed structural studies of four-type A PutAs from two clades of the PutA tree. The crystal structure of Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus PutA covalently inactivated by N-propargylglycine revealed a fold and substrate-channeling tunnel similar to other PutAs. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and analytical ultracentrifugation indicated that Bdellovibrio PutA is dimeric in solution, in contrast to the prediction from crystal packing of a stable tetrameric assembly. SAXS studies of two other type A PutAs from separate clades also suggested that the dimer predominates in solution. To assess whether the tetramer of B. japonicum PutA is necessary for catalytic function, a hot spot disruption mutant that cleanly produces dimeric protein was generated. The dimeric variant exhibited kinetic parameters similar to the wild-type enzyme. These results implicate the domain-swapped dimer as the core structural and functional unit of type A PutAs.

Ribosome•RelA structures reveal the mechanism of stringent response activation

Science.gov (United States)

Loveland, Anna B; Bah, Eugene; Madireddy, Rohini; Zhang, Ying; Brilot, Axel F; Grigorieff, Nikolaus; Korostelev, Andrei A

2016-01-01

Stringent response is a conserved bacterial stress response underlying virulence and antibiotic resistance. RelA/SpoT-homolog proteins synthesize transcriptional modulators (p)ppGpp, allowing bacteria to adapt to stress. RelA is activated during amino-acid starvation, when cognate deacyl-tRNA binds to the ribosomal A (aminoacyl-tRNA) site. We report four cryo-EM structures of E. coli RelA bound to the 70S ribosome, in the absence and presence of deacyl-tRNA accommodating in the 30S A site. The boomerang-shaped RelA with a wingspan of more than 100 Å wraps around the A/R (30S A-site/RelA-bound) tRNA. The CCA end of the A/R tRNA pins the central TGS domain against the 30S subunit, presenting the (p)ppGpp-synthetase domain near the 30S spur. The ribosome and A/R tRNA are captured in three conformations, revealing hitherto elusive states of tRNA engagement with the ribosomal decoding center. Decoding-center rearrangements are coupled with the step-wise 30S-subunit 'closure', providing insights into the dynamics of high-fidelity tRNA decoding. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.17029.001 PMID:27434674

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

Closing in on mass-degenerate dark matter scenarios with antiprotons and direct detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garny, Mathias; Ibarra, Alejandro; Pato, Miguel; Vogl, Stefan

2012-01-01

Over the last years both cosmic-ray antiproton measurements and direct dark matter searches have proved particularly effective in constraining the nature of dark matter candidates. The present work focusses on these two types of constraints in a minimal framework which features a Majorana fermion as the dark matter particle and a scalar that mediates the coupling to quarks. Considering a wide range of coupling schemes, we derive antiproton and direct detection constraints using the latest data and paying close attention to astrophysical and nuclear uncertainties. Both signals are strongly enhanced in the presence of degenerate dark matter and scalar masses, but we show that the effect is especially dramatic in direct detection. Accordingly, the latest direct detection limits take the lead over antiprotons. We find that antiproton and direct detection data set stringent lower limits on the mass splitting, reaching 19% at a 300 GeV dark matter mass for a unity coupling. Interestingly, these limits are orthogonal to ongoing collider searches at the Large Hadron Collider, making it feasible to close in on degenerate dark matter scenarios within the next years

Closing in on mass-degenerate dark matter scenarios with antiprotons and direct detection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garny, Mathias [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Ibarra, Alejandro; Pato, Miguel; Vogl, Stefan [Technische Univ. Muenchen, Garching (Germany). Physik-Department

2012-07-15

Over the last years both cosmic-ray antiproton measurements and direct dark matter searches have proved particularly effective in constraining the nature of dark matter candidates. The present work focusses on these two types of constraints in a minimal framework which features a Majorana fermion as the dark matter particle and a scalar that mediates the coupling to quarks. Considering a wide range of coupling schemes, we derive antiproton and direct detection constraints using the latest data and paying close attention to astrophysical and nuclear uncertainties. Both signals are strongly enhanced in the presence of degenerate dark matter and scalar masses, but we show that the effect is especially dramatic in direct detection. Accordingly, the latest direct detection limits take the lead over antiprotons. We find that antiproton and direct detection data set stringent lower limits on the mass splitting, reaching 19% at a 300 GeV dark matter mass for a unity coupling. Interestingly, these limits are orthogonal to ongoing collider searches at the Large Hadron Collider, making it feasible to close in on degenerate dark matter scenarios within the next years.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

DIST/AVC Out-Put Definition.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, Gene L.

The first stage of development of a management information system for DIST/AVC (Division of Instructional Technology/Audio-Visual Center) is the definition of out-put units. Some constraints on the definition of output units are: 1) they should reflect goals of the organization, 2) they should reflect organizational structure and procedures, and…

Quiet Eye Training Facilitates Competitive Putting Performance in Elite Golfers

Science.gov (United States)

Vine, Samuel J.; Moore, Lee J.; Wilson, Mark R.

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a brief quiet eye (QE) training intervention aimed at optimizing visuomotor control and putting performance of elite golfers under pressure, and in real competition. Twenty-two elite golfers (mean handicap 2.7) recorded putting statistics over 10 rounds of competitive golf before attending training individually. Having been randomly assigned to either a QE training or Control group, participants were fitted with an Applied Science Laboratories Mobile Eye tracker and performed 20 baseline (pre-test) putts from 10 ft. Training consisted of video feedback of their gaze behavior while they completed 20 putts; however the QE-trained group received additional instructions related to maintaining a longer QE period. Participants then recorded their putting statistics over a further 10 competitive rounds and re-visited the laboratory for retention and pressure tests of their visuomotor control and putting performance. Overall, the results were supportive of the efficacy of the QE training intervention. QE duration predicted 43% of the variance in putting performance, underlying its critical role in the visuomotor control of putting. The QE-trained group maintained their optimal QE under pressure conditions, whereas the Control group experienced reductions in QE when anxious, with subsequent effects on performance. Although their performance was similar in the pre-test, the QE-trained group holed more putts and left the ball closer to the hole on missed putts than their Control group counterparts in the pressure test. Importantly, these advantages transferred to the golf course, where QE-trained golfers made 1.9 fewer putts per round, compared to pre-training, whereas the Control group showed no change in their putting statistics. These results reveal that QE training, incorporated into a pre-shot routine, is an effective intervention to help golfers maintain control when anxious. PMID:21713182

TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA PROGENITORS AND CHEMICAL ENRICHMENT IN HYDRODYNAMICAL SIMULATIONS. I. THE SINGLE-DEGENERATE SCENARIO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jiménez, Noelia [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St. Andrews, North Haugh, St. Andrews, KY16 9SS, Scotland (United Kingdom); Tissera, Patricia B. [Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE, CONICET-UBA), CC. 67 Suc. 28, C1428ZAA, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Matteucci, Francesca, E-mail: nj22@st-andrews.ac.uk [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita’ di Trieste, Via G. B. Tiepolo, 11, I-34100, Trieste (Italy)

2015-09-10

The nature of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) progenitors remains uncertain. This is a major issue for galaxy evolution models since both chemical and energetic feedback plays a major role in the gas dynamics, star formation, and therefore the overall stellar evolution. The progenitor models for the SNe Ia available in the literature propose different distributions for regulating the explosion times of these events. These functions are known as the delay time distributions (DTDs). This work is the first one in a series of papers aiming at studying five different DTDs for SNe Ia. Here we implement and analyze the single-degenerate (SD) scenario in galaxies dominated by a rapid quenching of the star formation, displaying the majority of the stars concentrated in the bulge component. We find a good fit to both the present observed SN Ia rates in spheroidal-dominated galaxies and the [O/Fe] ratios shown by the bulge of the Milky Way. Additionally, the SD scenario is found to reproduce a correlation between the specific SN Ia rate and the specific star formation rate (sSFR), which closely resembles the observational trend, at variance with previous works. Our results suggest that SN Ia observations in galaxies with very low and very high sSFRs can help to impose more stringent constraints on the DTDs and therefore on SN Ia progenitors.

The Perpetual American Put Option for Jump-Diffusions

OpenAIRE

Aase, Knut K.

2010-01-01

-This is the author's version of the article"The Perpetual American Put Option for Jump-Diffusions" Energy Systems pp 493-507. We solve a specific optimal stopping problem with an infinite time horizon, when the state variable follows a jump-diffusion. The novelty of the paper is related to the inclusion of a jump component in this stochastic process. Under certain conditions, our solution can be interpreted as the price of an American perpetual put option. We characterize the continuation...

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Direct-to-physician and direct-to-consumer advertising: Time to have stringent regulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kannan, S; Gowri, S; Tyagi, V; Kohli, S; Jain, R; Kapil, P; Bhardwaj, A

2015-01-01

Direct to physician advertisements and direct to consumer advertisement (DTCA) is a well-known marketing strategy of pharmaceutical companies. Studies from the West and also from the Indian sub-continent revealed several lacunae in such advertisements. The present study was carried out to understand the international and national scenario regarding the lacunae in drug advertisements and the opinion of both physicians and patients regarding DTCA. The present study was conducted after obtaining approval from the institutional ethics committee. Warning letters (WLs) issued to pharmaceutical companies by United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) and Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) due to discrepancies in the advertisements were analyzed for reasons that were grouped into one of the following categories: overstatement of efficacy; unapproved indication; lack of adequate directions to use; omission of adverse effects; misleading claims; advertisement made for an unapproved drug (investigational new product). Drug advertisements in Current Index of Medical Specialties (CIMS) April-July 2014 issue was also analyzed for lacunae depending on categories as mentioned above. Physicians and patients in a tertiary care medical college and hospital were administered a validated questionnaire exploring their views about crucial aspects of DTCA. Descriptive statistics was used for each of the categories. A total of 93 WLs issued by USFDA and 36 by TGA were assessed. Majority of the WLs by USFDA were issued for omission of adverse effects (61/93, 65.6%) followed by misleading claims (54/93, 58.1%). Similarly, WLs by TGA were also mainly issued for the presence of misleading claims (35/36, 97.2%) followed by overstatement of efficacy (26/36, 72.2%) and CIMS evaluation had revealed that 78/92 (84.8%) advertisements omitted adverse effects, 20/92 (21.7%) had misleading claims, 9/92 (9.8%) had unapproved indications and 7/92 (7.6%) overstated the efficacy. With regard to

Heating being put into service

CERN Multimedia

2016-01-01

The SMB-SE group would like to inform you that, the central heating will start this year, on Monday 3 October 2016, and will be progressively and depending on the weather forecast put into service throughout. All buildings will have heating within the following few days. Thank you for your understanding. The CERN heating team SMB-SE

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Measurement-based Channel Characterization for 5G Wireless Communications on Campus Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mi, Yang; He, Ruisi; Ai, Bo

2017-01-01

The fifth generation (5G) communication has been a hotspot of research in recent years, and both research institutions and industrial enterprises put a lot of interests for 5G communication at some new frequency bands. In this paper, we investigate the radio channels of 5G communications below 6...... GHz according to the requirements and scenarios of 5G communication. Channel measurements were conducted on campus of Beijing Jiaotong University, China at two key optional frequency bands below 6 GHz. By using the measured data, we analyzed key channel parameters at 460MHz and 3.5GHz, such as power...... delay profile, path loss exponent, shadow fading, and delay spread. The results are helpful for the 5G communication system design....

Enhancing the control of force in putting by video game training.

Science.gov (United States)

Fery, Y A; Ponserre, S

2001-10-10

Even if golf video games provide no proprioceptive afferences on actual putting movement, they may give sufficient substitutive visual cues to enhance force control in this skill. It was hypothesized that this usefulness requires, however, two conditions: the video game must provide reliable demonstrations of actual putts, and the user must want to use the game to make progress in actual putting. Accordingly, a video game was selected on the basis of its fidelity to the real-world game. It allowed two different methods of adjusting the virtual player's putting force in order to hole a putt: an analogue method that consisted of focusing on the virtual player's movement and a symbolic method that consisted of focusing on the movement of a gauge on a scale representing the virtual player's putting force. The participants had to use one of these methods with either the intention of making progress in actual putting or in a second condition to simply enjoy the game. Results showed a positive transfer of video playing to actual putting skill for the learning group and also, to a lesser degree, for the enjoyment group; but only when they used the symbolic method. Results are discussed in the context of how vision may convey force cues in sports video games.

Insulated hsp70B' promoter: stringent heat-inducible activity in replication-deficient, but not replication-competent adenoviruses.

Science.gov (United States)

Rohmer, Stanimira; Mainka, Astrid; Knippertz, Ilka; Hesse, Andrea; Nettelbeck, Dirk M

2008-04-01

Key to the realization of gene therapy is the development of efficient and targeted gene transfer vectors. Therapeutic gene transfer by replication-deficient or more recently by conditionally replication-competent/oncolytic adenoviruses has shown much promise. For specific applications, however, it will be advantageous to provide vectors that allow for external control of gene expression. The efficient cellular heat shock system in combination with available technology for focused and controlled hyperthermia suggests heat-regulated transcription control as a promising tool for this purpose. We investigated the feasibility of a short fragment of the human hsp70B' promoter, with and without upstream insulator elements, for the regulation of transgene expression by replication-deficient or oncolytic adenoviruses. Two novel adenoviral vectors with an insulated hsp70B' promoter were developed and showed stringent heat-inducible gene expression with induction ratios up to 8000-fold. In contrast, regulation of gene expression from the hsp70B' promoter without insulation was suboptimal. In replication-competent/oncolytic adenoviruses regulation of the hsp70B' promoter was lost specifically during late replication in permissive cells and could not be restored by the insulators. We developed novel adenovirus gene transfer vectors that feature improved and stringent regulation of transgene expression from the hsp70B' promoter using promoter insulation. These vectors have potential for gene therapy applications that benefit from external modulation of therapeutic gene expression or for combination therapy with hyperthermia. Furthermore, our study reveals that vector replication can deregulate inserted cellular promoters, an observation which is of relevance for the development of replication-competent/oncolytic gene transfer vectors. (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

What is a natural SUSY scenario?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casas, J. Alberto; Moreno, Jesús M.; Robles, Sandra; Rolbiecki, Krzysztof [Instituto de Física Teórica, IFT-UAM/CSIC, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,Cantoblanco, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Zaldívar, Bryan [Service de Physique Théorique, Université Libre de Bruxelles,Boulevard du Triomphe, CP225, 1050 Brussels (Belgium)

2015-06-11

The idea of “Natural SUSY', understood as a supersymmetric scenario where the fine-tuning is as mild as possible, is a reasonable guide to explore supersymmetric phenomenology. In this paper, we re-examine this issue in the context of the MSSM including several improvements, such as the mixing of the fine-tuning conditions for different soft terms and the presence of potential extra fine-tunings that must be combined with the electroweak one. We give tables and plots that allow to easily evaluate the fine-tuning and the corresponding naturalness bounds for any theoretical model defined at any high-energy (HE) scale. Then, we analyze in detail the complete fine-tuning bounds for the unconstrained MSSM, defined at any HE scale. We show that Natural SUSY does not demand light stops. Actually, an average stop mass below 800 GeV is disfavored, though one of the stops might be very light. Regarding phenomenology, the most stringent upper bound from naturalness is the one on the gluino mass, which typically sets the present level fine-tuning at O(1%). However, this result presents a strong dependence on the HE scale. E.g. if the latter is 10{sup 7} GeV the level of fine-tuning is ∼ four times less severe. Finally, the most robust result of Natural SUSY is by far that Higgsinos should be rather light, certainly below 700 GeV for a fine-tuning of O(1%) or milder. Incidentally, this upper bound is not far from ≃1 TeV, which is the value required if dark matter is made of Higgsinos.

Does dishonesty really invite third-party punishment? Results of a more stringent test.

Science.gov (United States)

Konishi, Naoki; Ohtsubo, Yohsuke

2015-05-01

Many experiments have demonstrated that people are willing to incur cost to punish norm violators even when they are not directly harmed by the violation. Such altruistic third-party punishment is often considered an evolutionary underpinning of large-scale human cooperation. However, some scholars argue that previously demonstrated altruistic third-party punishment against fairness-norm violations may be an experimental artefact. For example, envy-driven retaliatory behaviour (i.e. spite) towards better-off unfair game players may be misidentified as altruistic punishment. Indeed, a recent experiment demonstrated that participants ceased to inflict third-party punishment against an unfair player once a series of key methodological problems were systematically controlled for. Noticing that a previous finding regarding apparently altruistic third-party punishment against honesty-norm violations may have been subject to methodological issues, we used a different and what we consider to be a more sound design to evaluate these findings. Third-party punishment against dishonest players withstood this more stringent test. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

The Influence of Different Recycling Scenarios on the Mechanical Design of an LED Weatherproof Light Fitting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor Camañes

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the high relevance of material selection for the sustainable development of an LED weatherproof light fitting. The research reveals how this choice modifies current and future end of life scenarios and can reduce the overall environmental impact. This life cycle assessment has been carried out with Ecotool, a software program especially developed for designers to assess the environmental performance of their designs at the same time that they are working on them. Results show that special attention can be put on the recycling and reusing of the product from the initial stages of development.

A Scenario Proposal For A Radioactive Waste Transport Accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salama, M.A.; Rashad, S.M.

1999-01-01

In spite of all precautions that being taken during radioactive materials transport accidents to ensure safe transportation of these materials; there is still a probability for accidents to occur which, may be accompanied by injury or death of persons and damage of property So, in response to the increasing possibilities of accidents in Egypt, the government had prepared an emergency response plan for radiological accidents to coordinate the response efforts of all the national agencies. Trends for use of the radioactive materials and sources inside the country for the purpose of medical diagnosis and treatment as well as in industrial applications, are increasing. The radioactive waste resulted from these activities are transported from the centres where these materials being used to the waste management facility where they are treated and finally disposed safely at disposal site. The aim of the emergency exercise scenario is to test not only the main components of the emergency plan but also the level of emergency preparedness; that is the effectiveness with which the actions or combined actions of the different organizations involved in an emergency can be put into practice. The motivation of the present paper was undertaken to give a scenario proposal for the radiological emergency actions taken in case of a transport accident for a radioactive waste material (type A- package ) transported by a vehicle from one of the medical centers to a disposal site, 40 km northeast of cairo

Putting politics first.

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, Jacob S

2008-01-01

The greatest lesson of the failure of comprehensive health reform in the early 1990s is that politics comes first. Even the best-laid policy plans are worthless if they lack the political support to pass. Putting politics first means avoiding the overarching mistake of the Clinton reformers: envisioning a grand policy compromise rather than hammering out a real political compromise. It also means addressing the inevitable fears of those who believe that they are well protected by our eroding employment-based system. And it means formulating political strategies that are premised on the contemporary realities of the hyperpolarized U.S. political environment, rather than wistfully recalled images of the bipartisan politics of old.

Integrative Scenario Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Putting Opportunism in the Back Seat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foss, Nicolai; Weber, Libby

2013-01-01

TCE and its applications in management research put more emphasis on opportunism than on bounded rationality. By augmenting the bounded rationality assumption to include interpretive limitations, we show that there are sources of costly conflict that are not rooted in opportunism. Moreover, we show...

Global transportation scenarios in the multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muehlich, P.; Hamacher, T.

2009-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of the transportation sector on the role of fusion power in the energy system of the 21st century. Key indicators in this context are global passenger and freight transportation activities, consumption levels of fuels used for transportation purposes, the electricity generation mix and greenhouse gas emissions. These quantities are calculated by means of the global multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy system model. For the present study a new transportation module has been linked to the EFDA-TIMES framework in order to arrive at a consistent projection of future transportation demands. Results are discussed implying various global energy scenarios including assumed crossovers of road transportation activities towards hydrogen or electricity infrastructures and atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilization levels at 550 ppm and 450 ppm. Our results show that the penetration of fusion power plants is only slightly sensitive to transportation fuel choices but depends strongly on assumed climate policies. In the most stringent case considered here the contribution of electricity produced by fusion power plants can become as large as about 50% at the end of the 21st century. This statement, however, is still of preliminary nature as the EFDA-TIMES project has not yet reached a final status.

Redesigned purification yields a fully functional PutA protein dimer from Escherichia coli.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, E D; Wood, J M

1992-06-25

Proline utilization by Escherichia coli and Salmonella typhimurium requires expression of genes putP (encoding a proline transporter) and putA. Genetic data indicate that the PutA protein is both put repressor and a respiratory chain-linked dehydrogenase. We report a redesigned purification procedure as well as the physical characteristics and biological activities of the PutA protein purified from E. coli. The purified protein was homogeneous as determined by electrophoresis performed under denaturing and nondenaturing conditions. Its N-terminal sequence corresponded to that predicted by the DNA sequence. We showed copurification of proline and delta 1-pyrroline-5-carboxylate dehydrogenase activities. Purified PutA protein bound put DNA in vitro in an electrophoretic band-shift assay and it could be reconstituted to inverted membrane vesicles, yielding proline dehydrogenase activity. The Stokes radius and Svedberg coefficient of the protein were determined to be 7.1 nm and 9.9 S, respectively. These hydrodynamic data revealed that the protein in our preparation was dimeric with a molecular mass of 293 kDa and that it had an irregular shape indicated by the friction factor (f/f0) of 1.6.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Multicultural Education Course Put into Practice

Science.gov (United States)

Jun, Eun Jeong

2016-01-01

This study examines the ways in which two teachers who have previously taken a multicultural education course put into practice multicultural teaching in a first grade afterschool program. Banks' five dimensions of multicultural education are used as the theoretical framework for analyzing past research on multicultural education courses and for…

Sludge quantification at water treatment plant and its management scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Tarique; Ahmad, Kafeel; Alam, Mehtab

2017-08-15

Large volume of sludge is generated at the water treatment plants during the purification of surface water for potable supplies. Handling and disposal of sludge require careful attention from civic bodies, plant operators, and environmentalists. Quantification of the sludge produced at the treatment plants is important to develop suitable management strategies for its economical and environment friendly disposal. Present study deals with the quantification of sludge using empirical relation between turbidity, suspended solids, and coagulant dosing. Seasonal variation has significant effect on the raw water quality received at the water treatment plants so forth sludge generation also varies. Yearly production of the sludge in a water treatment plant at Ghaziabad, India, is estimated to be 29,700 ton. Sustainable disposal of such a quantity of sludge is a challenging task under stringent environmental legislation. Several beneficial reuses of sludge in civil engineering and constructional work have been identified globally such as raw material in manufacturing cement, bricks, and artificial aggregates, as cementitious material, and sand substitute in preparing concrete and mortar. About 54 to 60% sand, 24 to 28% silt, and 16% clay constitute the sludge generated at the water treatment plant under investigation. Characteristics of the sludge are found suitable for its potential utilization as locally available construction material for safe disposal. An overview of the sustainable management scenario involving beneficial reuses of the sludge has also been presented.

The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Saikawa

2011-09-01

Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NO_x, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O₃ mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM_2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O₃ is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM_2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m⁻³ relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O₃ mixing ratios and PM_2.5 concentrations in

Putting Portugal on the Map

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

João Ferrão

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This paper argues the need to “put Portugal on the map” in a double sense: in a prospective way, in order to place the country on the required map(s, something which entails strategic vision and capacity for action; and in an analytical way – to enable us to understand Portugal from the map(s it is part of, which presupposes a capacity to analyse and understand the current state of affairs. By drawing inspiration from the polymorphic vision on the spatialities of contemporary societies and economies defended by Jessop, Brenner and Jones (2008, we propose the creation of a unifying reference framework to “put Portugal on the map”, using a combination of five elements: territory as a geographic location; territory as a unit of reference of the nation-state; places; geographic scales; and networks. The polymorphic nature of the spatialities that characterize, or should characterize, Portugal’s place in the world reflects several, and even contradictory, ethical values, interests, preferences, and options. Accordingly, the supported polymorphic spatialities ought to stir up controversy based on knowledge and arguments that are solid from a theoretical and empirical stance, and should make explicit the objectives and values they are based on.

Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

2008-01-01

This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

Perpetual American put options in a level-dependent volatility model

OpenAIRE

Ekström, Erik

2003-01-01

We find the explicit value of perpetual American put options in the constant elasticity of variance model using the concept of smooth fit. We show that the price is increasing in the volatility and convex in the underlying stock price. Moreover, as the model converges to the standard Black and Scholes model, the value of the put is shown to approach the `correct' limit.

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

2014-01-01

A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoeoek, Mikael

2010-10-15

Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David

2018-06-01

The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without the inclusion of CO2 fertilization effects, is used to produce ensembles of time series of yield outcomes on a yearly basis over the course of the 21st century, for each scenario. The 21st century is divided into 10 year windows starting from 2020, within which the statistical significance and the magnitude of the differences in yield changes between pairs of scenarios are assessed, thus evaluating if and when benefits of mitigations appear, and how substantial they are. Additionally, a metric of extreme heat tailored to the individual crops (number of days during the growing season above a crop-specific threshold) is used to measure exposure to harmful temperatures under the different scenarios. If CO2 effects are not included, statistically significant differences in yields of both crops appear as early as the 2030s but the magnitude of the differences remains below 3% of the historical baseline in all cases until the second part of the century. In the later decades of the 21st century, differences remain small and eventually stop being statistically significant between the two scenarios stabilizing at 1.5 °C, while differences between these two lower scenarios and the 2.0 °C scenario grow to about 4%. The inclusion of CO2 effects erases all significant benefits of mitigation for wheat, while the significance of differences is maintained for maize yields between the higher and the two lower scenarios, albeit with smaller benefits in magnitude. Changes in extremes are significant within each of the scenarios

IceCube constraints on fast-spinning pulsars as high-energy neutrino sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, Ke [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742 (United States); Kotera, Kumiko [Institut d' Astrophysique de Paris, UMR 7095 – CNRS, Université Pierre $ and $ Marie Curie, 98 bis boulevard Arago, 75014, Paris (France); Murase, Kohta [Department of Physics, Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Center for Particle and Gravitational Astrophysics, The Pennsylvania State University, PA 16802 (United States); Olinto, Angela V., E-mail: kefang@umd.edu, E-mail: kotera@iap.fr, E-mail: murase@psu.edu, E-mail: olinto@kicp.uchicago.edu [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

2016-04-01

Relativistic winds of fast-spinning pulsars have been proposed as a potential site for cosmic-ray acceleration from very high energies (VHE) to ultrahigh energies (UHE). We re-examine conditions for high-energy neutrino production, considering the interaction of accelerated particles with baryons of the expanding supernova ejecta and the radiation fields in the wind nebula. We make use of the current IceCube sensitivity in diffusive high-energy neutrino background, in order to constrain the parameter space of the most extreme neutron stars as sources of VHE and UHE cosmic rays. We demonstrate that the current non-observation of 10{sup 18} eV neutrinos put stringent constraints on the pulsar scenario. For a given model, birthrates, ejecta mass and acceleration efficiency of the magnetar sources can be constrained. When we assume a proton cosmic ray composition and spherical supernovae ejecta, we find that the IceCube limits almost exclude their significant contribution to the observed UHE cosmic-ray flux. Furthermore, we consider scenarios where a fraction of cosmic rays can escape from jet-like structures piercing the ejecta, without significant interactions. Such scenarios would enable the production of UHE cosmic rays and help remove the tension between their EeV neutrino production and the observational data.

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

The science of golf putting a complete guide for researchers, players and coaches

CERN Document Server

Dias, Gonçalo

2015-01-01

This SpringerBrief explores the motor performance and biomechanics of golf putting, providing methodologies, studies and approaches to this concept. Presenting outcomes of research published over the past six years, it offers guidelines from a scientifically oriented perspective, and employs new technologies and mathematical methods to assess golf putting. The chapters cover aspects such as pendulum-like motion in sports, setting up the experimental design, and performance metrics for putting variables. Paving the way for an improved understanding of what leads to failure and success in golf putting, this book offers an invaluable reference source for sports scientists, engineers and mathematicians, as well as golfers.

Scenario? Guilty!

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kyng, Morten

1992-01-01

Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

Effective axial-vector coupling of the gluon and top-quark charge asymmetry at the LHC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gabrielli, E.; Giammanco, A.; Racioppi, A.; Raidal, M.

2012-01-01

We study the top quark charge asymmetry induced by an effective axial-vector coupling of the gluon at the LHC experiments. We showed that rapidity cut-dependent asymmetries are more sensitive to the new physics than the independent ones. We also study the dependence of the asymmetries and variations of the total tt-bar cross sections on the invariant mass of the tt-bar system and show that it would be necessary to measure those quantities as functions of m tt at the LHC. If this is done, in the context of the considered new physics scenario, the 7 TeV LHC has enough sensitivity either to confirm the Tevatron top charge asymmetry anomaly or to rule it out. In the latter case the LHC will be able to put stringent constraint on the new physics scale Λ in this framework. (authors)

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Energy-Climate Scenarios: An Adjustment after the Economic Crisis, Fukushima, Durban and... Shale Gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana; Peytral, Pierre-Olivier; Simon, Jean-Christophe

2012-01-01

In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach - with national objectives set as a function of international objectives formulated at major conferences - and greater implementation of a bottom-up logic based on national policies put in place in the energy field and as part of the battle against global warming. On the basis of this latter logic, the authors were able to elaborate scenarios at a world level. A few days before the publication of that article, the Fukushima accident occurred in japan, lending fresh impetus to the energy debate in most of the countries using nuclear power. Does that event, combined with the persistence of the debt crisis, the increased extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons (shale oil and gas ) and the fact that international negotiations on climate change (Durban) have merely marked time, modify the projected scenarios -and, if so, to what extent ? Patrick Criqui, Silvana Mima, Pierre-Olivier Peytral and jean-Christophe Simon consider this question in detail here. They begin by examining the impact of these recent events and developments on the current energy and climate situation. Then, after reminding us of the four world energy scenarios (to a time-horizon of 2030-2050) that were developed in 2009 (together with two 'discontinuity scenarios'), they propose an updating that takes account of the perceived consequences of the change of context, stressing two crucial scenarios in particular: the probable (leading to warming in the order of 4 deg. C) and the desirable (limiting warming to 2 deg. C). Lastly, they propose various levers aimed at 'making the desirable trajectory possible' (technological agreements, economic instruments

Evaluation of fuel cycle scenarios on MOX fuel recycling in PWRs and SFRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlier, B.; Caron-Charles, M.; Van Den Durpel, L. [AREVA, 1 place Jean Millier, Paris La Defense (France); Senentz, G. [AREVA, 33 rue La Lafayette, 75009 Paris (France); Serpantie, J.P. [AREVA, 10 rue Juliette Recamier, Lyon (France)

2013-07-01

Prospects on advanced fuel cycle scenario are considered for achieving a progressive integration of Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) technology within the current French Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) nuclear fleet, in a view to benefit from fissile material multi-recycling capability. A step by step process is envisioned, and emphasis is put on its potential implementation through the nuclear mass inventory calculations with the COSAC code. The overall time scale is not optimized. The first step, already implemented in several countries, the plutonium coming from the reprocessing of used Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuels is recycled into a small number of LWRs. The second step is the progressive introduction of the first SFRs, in parallel with the continuation of step 1. This second step lets to prepare the optimized multi recycling of MOX fuel which is considered in step 3. Step 3 is characterized by the introduction of a greater number of SFR and MOX management between EPR reactors and SFRs. In the final step 4, all the fleet is formed with SFRs. This study assesses the viability of each step of the overall scenario. The switch from one step to the other one could result from different constrains related to issues such as resources, waste, experience feedback, public acceptance, country policy, etc.

Primordial black holes formation from particle production during inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erfani, Encieh

2016-01-01

We study the possibility that particle production during inflation can source the required power spectrum for dark matter (DM) primordial black holes (PBH) formation. We consider the scalar and the gauge quanta production in inflation models, where in the latter case, we focus in two sectors: inflaton coupled i) directly and ii) gravitationally to a U(1) gauge field. We do not assume any specific potential for the inflaton field. Hence, in the gauge production case, in a model independent way we show that the non-production of DM PBHs puts stronger upper bound on the particle production parameter. Our analysis show that this bound is more stringent than the bounds from the bispectrum and the tensor-to-scalar ratio derived by gauge production in these models. In the scenario where the inflaton field coupled to a scalar field, we put an upper bound on the amplitude of the generated scalar power spectrum by non-production of PBHs. As a by-product we also show that the required scalar power spectrum for PBHs formation is lower when the density perturbations are non-Gaussian in comparison to the Gaussian density perturbations

Putting Petri nets to work in Industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aalst, van der W.M.P.

1994-01-01

Petri nets exist for over 30 years. Especially in the last decade Petri nets have been put into practive extensively. Thanks to several useful extensions and the availability of computer tools, Petri nets have become a mature tool for modelling and analysing industrial systems. This paper describes

Big meeting puts the case for LHC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1990-01-01

It was a workshop on a scale to match the ultimate goal. When some 500 physicists met in Aachen, Germany, in October to put the research case for the proposed Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN, the turnout was among the biggest attendances of the year

Scenarios and innovative systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

CERN Document Server

Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

2016-01-01

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

Assessing groundwater pollution hazard changes under different socio-economic and environmental scenarios in an agricultural watershed

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, M. Lourdes, E-mail: mlima@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Romanelli, Asunción, E-mail: aromanel@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina); Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas y Costeras (IIMyC), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) (Argentina); Massone, Héctor E., E-mail: hmassone@mdp.edu.ar [Instituto de Geología de Costas y del Cuaternario, FCEyN, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Funes 3350, Nivel 1, 7600 Mar del Plata (Argentina)

2015-10-15

This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high–very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high–very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status

Putting to a bigger hole: Golf performance relates to perceived size

Science.gov (United States)

Witt, Jessica K.; Linkenauger, Sally A.; Bakdash, Jonathan Z.; Proffitt, Dennis R.

2011-01-01

When engaged in a skilled behaviour such as occurs in sports, people's perceptions relate optical information to their performance. In current research we demonstrate the effects of performance on size perception in golfers. We found golfers who played better judged the hole to be bigger than golfers who did not play as well (Study 1). In follow-up laboratory experiments, participants putted on a golf mat from a location near or far from the hole then judged the size of the hole. Participants who putted from the near location perceived the hole to be bigger than participants who putted from the far location. Our results demonstrate that perception is influenced by the perceiver's current ability to act effectively in the environment. PMID:18567258

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Putting Knowledge to Work: Collaborating, Influencing and Learning ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2017-02-15

Feb 15, 2017 ... Download PDF ... Putting Knowledge to Work explores how the brains of such ... She previously worked with Statistics Canada, Graybridge Malkam, Citizenship and Immigration Canada, and Human Resources and Skills ...

THE IDIOM OF KRIVI PUT KOD SENJA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ankica Čilaš Šimpraga

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The idiom of Krivi Put kod Senja is part of West-Štokavian dialect. The basics of phonological, morphological, syntactic and lexical characteristics of idiom are considered in this article. Research confirmed common features with idioms of Bunjevo beyond Velebit’s part of hinterland of Senj.

The perpetual American put option for jump-diffusions with applications

OpenAIRE

Aase, Knut K.

2005-01-01

In this paper, we solve an optimal stopping problem with an infinite time horizon, when the state variable follows a jump-diffusion. Under certain conditions our solution can be interpreted as the price of an American perpetual put option, when the underlying asset follows this type of process. We present several examples demonstrating when the solution can be interpreted as a perpetual put price. This takes us into a study of how to risk adjust jump-diffusions. One key observatio...

Effect of Putting Grip on Eye and Head Movements During the Golf Putting Stroke

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

George K. Hung

2003-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this article is to determine the effect of three different putting grips (conventional, cross-hand, and one-handed on variations in eye and head movements during the putting stroke. Seven volunteer novice players, ranging in age from 21 to 22 years, participated in the study. During each experimental session, the subject stood on a specially designed platform covered with artificial turf and putted golf balls towards a standard golf hole. The three different types of grips were tested at two distances: 3 and 9 ft. For each condition, 20 putts were attempted. For each putt, data were recorded over a 3-s interval at a sampling rate of 100 Hz. Eye movements were recorded using a helmet-mounted eye movement monitor. Head rotation about an imaginary axis through the top of the head and its center-of-rotation was measured by means of a potentiometer mounted on a fixed frame and coupled to the helmet. Putter-head motion was measured using a linear array of infrared phototransistors embedded in the platform. The standard deviation (STD, relative to the initial level was calculated for eye and head movements over the duration of the putt (i.e., from the beginning of the backstroke, through the forward stroke, to impact. The averaged STD for the attempted putts was calculated for each subject. Then, the averaged STDs and other data for the seven subjects were statistically compared across the three grip conditions. The STD of eye movements were greater (p < 0.1 for conventional than cross-hand (9 ft and one-handed (3 and 9 ft grips. Also, the STD of head movements were greater (p < 0.1; 3 ft for conventional than cross-hand and one-handed grips. Vestibulo-ocular responses associated with head rotations could be observed in many 9 ft and some 3 ft putts. The duration of the putt was significantly longer (p < 0.05; 3 and 9 ft for the one-handed than conventional and cross-hand grips. Finally, performance, or percentage putts made, was

Learning Through Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose

level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

Integrating ecosystem services trade-offs with paddy land-to-dry land decisions: A scenario approach in Erhai Lake Basin, southwest China.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yi'na; Peng, Jian; Liu, Yanxu; Tian, Lu

2018-06-01

Ecosystem services are the benefits people obtain from ecosystems, and ecosystem services trade-offs have been widely applied to the development of land-use policy. Although previous studies have focused on trade-offs of ecosystem services, a scenario approach has been seldom used. The scenario approach can reveal the changes of ecosystem services for different land-use patterns in the future, and is of great significance for land-use decisions and ecosystem management. Based on the actual situation of deteriorating water quality and dwindling water supply in the Erhai Lake Basin of southwest China, this study put forward to convert paddy land to dry land (PLDL) in the basin, and simulated its potential impact on ecosystem services. Taking environmental pollution, social impact, economic benefit and residential participation into consideration, four scenarios of PLDL were designed. Then, four ecosystem services (water purification, water yield, soil conservation and rice production) were calculated for each scenario. The optimal scenario of PLDL in the Erhai Lake Basin was identified by trade-offs of the four ecosystem services. The results showed that the total nitrogen export could be reduced by 42.07% and water yield can be increased by 5.61% after converting 100% of paddy lands to dry land, thereby greatly improving the water quality and increasing the water yield of Erhai Lake. However, PLDL involving 100% of paddy lands also increased the sediment export by 17.22%, and eliminated rice production in the region. By comparing the four PLDL scenarios for converting just 50% of paddy lands, the residential participation scenario was identified to be the best choice for PLDL implementation because it achieved the best level of water purification and had the smallest negative effect on other ecosystem services. The optimal scenario for each township showed spatial differentiation, and there were conflicts between the optimal scenarios at basin scale and township

Revising scenario map for plant management via interaction of stakeholders' intentions and constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohsawa, Yukio; Taya, Sayuri

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to put knowledge of plant safety together and make a map that will help to understand a system of plant and notice new links among components. This map, called the scenario map, can be used for aiding the chance discoveries - decision of various stakeholders of the system based on their awareness of latent dynamics underlying observed events. The trustworthiness of their analysis will be also reinforced by linking relevant data to the nodes and lines in the graph. In order to have stakeholders be aware of information missed in available data, we invented a method of workshop and moved forward with a rough map of plant safety. The first phase attempts to externalize differences in the bodies of knowledge of each participant. In the second, introducing Tsugo Roulette (TR) – the core component of this paper -, latent dynamics where physical and social causalities emerge is externalized. Then participants revise the scenario map based on their thoughts by the second phase, to finally evaluate the utility of nodes and lines in the graph. In accordance with each phase, participants in the workshop could exchange their tsugoes - views of intentions and constraints - and realize new links or nodes to be evaluated highly by experts in the corresponding domain. (author)

Scenario-based strategizing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

2017-01-01

For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

Global Energy Scenarios to 2040. Understanding our energy future - 2016 Edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

The energy world is in rapid evolution, driven in particular by policy developments (like the INDCs agreed at COP-21) but also economic, geopolitical, technological as well as social considerations. Enerdata regularly produces scenario based energy outlooks to analyze and forecast the supply and demand of energy commodities, energy prices, as well as the impact of climate change and energy policies on energy markets and their consequences for the energy industry. After the COP-21 in Paris, Enerdata has again done such an exercise. The Ener-Blue scenario provides an outlook of energy systems up to 2040 based on the achievement of the 2030 targets defined in the INDCs as announced at the COP-21. Ener-Green explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies to limit the global temperature increase at around 1.5-2 deg. C by the end of the century. Finally, Ener-Brown describes a world with abundant fossil fuel resource and durably low energy prices, affecting the entire energy system over a long period. These different scenarios explore the consequences on energy supply and demand, energy mix, energy prices by fuel and region, as well as the implications on climate issues. In the Ener-Blue scenario, the future energy mix remains dominated by fossil fuels, but INDCs planned policies regarding climate mitigation, energy efficiency and renewable energy sources lead to a diversification towards other sources of energy. Among others, the EU successfully achieves its triple objective of its climate and energy package, while China and India expand their renewable capacities to achieve their renewable targets. Within this international context of climate coordinated policies, CO_2 emission growth slows down. However, the efforts defined in INDCs are not ambitious enough to limit the increase of the average global temperature to 2 deg. C in 2050, but these efforts are compatible with 3-4 deg. C objective. In the Ener-Green scenario, there is a clear

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

A new approach to the study of Gold Putting | Dias | South African ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The aim of this study was to apply non-linear techniques in the analysis of golf putting performance. How players adapt to the variability that emerges from the putting execution and how they self-organize their performance toward the task constraints was investigated. The sample consisted of 10 adult male golfers ...

Putting Opportunism in the Back Seat

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foss, Nicolai; Weber, Libby

2013-01-01

TCE and its applications in management research put more emphasis on opportunism than on bounded rationality. By augmenting the bounded rationality assumption to include interpretive limitations, we show that there are sources of costly conflict that are not rooted in opportunism. Moreover, we show...... that bounded rationality may drive opportunism. All hierarchal forms are inherently subject to specific bounded-rationality-based conflicts, thus have different capacities to mitigate bounded-rationality-based transaction costs....

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

"Big Bang"test put off until May 2008

CERN Multimedia

2007-01-01

"First tests in a scientific project aimed at solving mysteries of the universe and the "Big Bang" which created it have been put off from November to late april or early May next year, an official said yesterday." (2/3 page)

Distance and slope constraints: adaptation and variability in golf putting.

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Gonçalo; Couceiro, Micael S; Barreiros, João; Clemente, Filipe M; Mendes, Rui; Martins, Fernando M

2014-07-01

The main objective of this study is to understand the adaptation to external constraints and the effects of variability in a golf putting task. We describe the adaptation of relevant variables of golf putting to the distance to the hole and to the addition of a slope. The sample consisted of 10 adult male (33.80 ± 11.89 years), volunteers, right handed and highly skilled golfers with an average handicap of 10.82. Each player performed 30 putts at distances of 2, 3 and 4 meters (90 trials in Condition 1). The participants also performed 90 trials, at the same distances, with a constraint imposed by a slope (Condition 2). The results indicate that the players change some parameters to adjust to the task constraints, namely the duration of the backswing phase, the speed of the club head and the acceleration at the moment of impact with the ball. The effects of different golf putting distances in the no-slope condition on different kinematic variables suggest a linear adjustment to distance variation that was not observed when in the slope condition.

Performance and Kinematic Differences in Putting Between Healthy and Disabled Elite Golfers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gryc Tomáš

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Golfers with disability are limited in the execution of the full golf swing, but their performance in putting may be comparable because this stroke does not demand significant strength, balance and range of motion. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare putting performance, kinetic and kinematic consistency between golfers with different disabilities and healthy athletes. The participants consisted of three disabled athletes (perinatal cerebral palsy, multiple sclerosis, below knee lower limb amputee and three healthy golfers (age 34 ± 4.5 years, body height 178 ± 3.3 cm, body mass 83 ± 6.2 kg. The golfers’ movements were recorded by active 3D markers for kinematic analyses; the subjects performed 10 trials of a 6 m putting task while standing on separate force platforms placed under each lower limb. Putting performance was measured by the distance of the final ball position to the centre of the hole. ANOVA analyses did not show any differences in clubhead speed and total ball distance from the hole. The consistency of those two parameters expressed by the coefficient of variation (CV was CV = 0.5% or better in both groups for clubhead speed and ranged from CV = 0.40 to 0.61% in healthy and CV = 0.21 to 0.55% in disabled athletes for total error distance. The main effect ANOVA showed differences in weight shift, hip and shoulder kinematics (p < 0.05 between healthy players and all players with disability. All disabled athletes shifted their weight toward the healthy side (towards the healthy lower limb and alternated the end of the swing. The player with below knee amputation had the lowest range of motion in the shoulder joint during the putting stroke. The players with perinatal cerebral palsy and multiple sclerosis had the largest range of motion in the hips. Putting performance of disabled golfers was similar to healthy athletes. During training of disabled players, coaches should pay attention to the specificity of a

Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

2002-01-01

This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Integration of a modeling task in water policy design - Example of a prospective scenarios approach on an agricultural catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Moreau, P.; Raimbault, T.; Durand, P.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Masson, V.; Cordier, M. O.

2010-05-01

To meet the objectives of the Water Framework Directive in terms of nitrate pollution of surface water, numerous mitigation options have been proposed. To support stakeholders' decision prior to the implementation of regulations, scenario analysis by models can be used as a prospective approach. The work developed an extensive virtual experiment design from an initial basic requirement of catchment managers. Specific objectives were (1) to test the ability of a distributed model (TNT2) to simulate hydrology and hydrochemistry on a watershed with a high diversity of production systems, (2) to analyse a large set of scenarios and their effects on water quality and (3) to propose an effective mode of communication between research scientists and catchment managers. The focus of the scenario, in accord with catchment managers' requirement, is put on winter catch crop (CC). 5 conditions of implantation in rotations, 3 CC durations and 2 CC harvest modes were tested. CC is favoured by managers because of its simplicity to implement on fields and its relative low influence on farm strategy. Calibration and validation periods were run from 1998 to 2007 and scenario simulation period from 2007 to 2020. Results have been provided, for each scenario, by compartment (soil, atmosphere, plant uptake, water) but especially in the form of nitrogen mass balance at the catchment scale. The scenarios were ranked by integrating positive and negative effects of each measure. This 3-step-process: translation of a simple stakeholder question into extensive set of scenarios (complexification) - modeling process and data analysis - restitution to catchments' manager into a simple integrative form (simplification), gives an operational tool for decision support. In term of water quality, the best improvements in nitrate concentrations at the outlet reached a decrease of 0.8 mgL-1 compared to a "business as usual" scenario and were achieved by exporting the CC residue, by extending CC

Energy scenarios for New Zealand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

1977-10-15

Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

Ethical quandaries in spiritual healing and herbal medicine: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Critical look at the worthiness of some advertising strategies used by ... To examine the moral worthiness of the advertising strategies used by traditional medical ... countries to put in place stringent measures to address this mounting problem.

[Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

2013-01-01

Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Lene

2004-01-01

design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

Scenario for a patient at home in health and social care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Winge M

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Monica Winge,1 Eva Lindh-Waterworth2 1Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; 2Department of Informatics, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden Abstract: This paper describes and discusses the situation for a typical patient with multiple illnesses and how his case would benefit from improved coordination, communication, and collaboration among all involved care providers. The paper is built around a patient case presented in a current scenario. The authors identified that for a single patient with several problems and diagnoses and the involvement of several care actors, the common issues concern lack of collaboration, lack of coordination, and awareness of what others have done to assess, plan, perform, and evaluate care. This presumably leads to a lack of care quality and a lack of effective use of care resources. The scenario and the findings are based on a patient-oriented perspective, on an analysis expressed in focus groups, and on interviews with key actors in health and social care. The paper also discusses the fact that an increasing number of patients are treated in their homes by a variety of organizations, and how this fact raises new and more intense demands on the various stakeholders forming the care staff to collaborate and coordinate care. We point to the need for managers in and between organizations to agree on the ways of collaborating at the operational level. Most importantly, by taking a basic set of issues as the starting point for reasoning, we derived a set of related problems and suggest solutions to deal with these. The literature currently lacks scenario descriptions that put the patient's situation into focus with respect to collaboration between health and social care. Finally, the paper presents a future case for collaboration including support by new e-services. Keywords: multisectorial collaboration, coordination, communication, patient-centered care, home care, health

How Does Pricing of Day-ahead Electricity Market Affect Put Option Pricing?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Raouf Sheybani

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncertainty in fuel price, day-ahead market pricing, and elasticity of consumers to strike price, premium price, and day-ahead price are taken into account in these models. By applying the presented models to a test system impact of day-ahead market pricing on equilibrium of joint put option and day-ahead markets are studied.

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Muscular power, neuromuscular activation, and performance in shot put athletes at preseason and at competition period.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyriazis, Thomas A; Terzis, Gerasimos; Boudolos, Konstantinos; Georgiadis, Georgios

2009-09-01

The aim of this study was to investigate changes in shot put performance, muscular power, and neuromuscular activation of the lower extremities, between the preseason and the competition period, in skilled shot put athletes using the rotational technique. Shot put performance was assessed at the start of the pre-season period as well as after 12 weeks, at the competition period, in nine shot putters. Electromyographic (EMG) activity of the right vastus lateralis muscle was recorded during all shot put trials. Maximum squat strength (1RM) and mechanical parameters during the countermovement jump (CMJ) on a force platform were also determined at pre-season and at competition period. Shot put performance increased 4.7% (p phase was increased significantly (p training period. Shot put performance was significantly related with muscular power and takeoff velocity during the CMJ, at competition period (r = 0.66, p competition period.

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Li

2015-04-01

Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

Present and future strategies for neutrinoless double beta decay ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

doubled exposure, with signal shape analysis to discard Compton events, a heavy ... sonable amount to put stringent (and competitive) limits on 0νDBD. ..... with an impressive reduced electronic noise and an almost eliminated risk of de-.

Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contaldi, Mario

2005-01-01

This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Putting lexical constraints in context into the visual-world paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Novick, Jared M; Thompson-Schill, Sharon L; Trueswell, John C

2008-06-01

Prior eye-tracking studies of spoken sentence comprehension have found that the presence of two potential referents, e.g., two frogs, can guide listeners toward a Modifier interpretation of Put the frog on the napkin... despite strong lexical biases associated with Put that support a Goal interpretation of the temporary ambiguity (Tanenhaus, M. K., Spivey-Knowlton, M. J., Eberhard, K. M. & Sedivy, J. C. (1995). Integration of visual and linguistic information in spoken language comprehension. Science, 268, 1632-1634; Trueswell, J. C., Sekerina, I., Hill, N. M. & Logrip, M. L. (1999). The kindergarten-path effect: Studying on-line sentence processing in young children. Cognition, 73, 89-134). This pattern is not expected under constraint-based parsing theories: cue conflict between the lexical evidence (which supports the Goal analysis) and the visuo-contextual evidence (which supports the Modifier analysis) should result in uncertainty about the intended analysis and partial consideration of the Goal analysis. We reexamined these put studies (Experiment 1) by introducing a response time-constraint and a spatial contrast between competing referents (a frog on a napkin vs. a frog in a bowl). If listeners immediately interpret on the... as the start of a restrictive modifier, then their eye movements should rapidly converge on the intended referent (the frog on something). However, listeners showed this pattern only when the phrase was unambiguously a Modifier (Put the frog that's on the...). Syntactically ambiguous trials resulted in transient consideration of the Competitor animal (the frog in something). A reading study was also run on the same individuals (Experiment 2) and performance was compared between the two experiments. Those individuals who relied heavily on lexical biases to resolve a complement ambiguity in reading (The man heard/realized the story had been...) showed increased sensitivity to both lexical and contextual constraints in the put-task; i

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Putting Personal Knowledge Management under the Macroscope of Informing Science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrich Schmitt

2015-08-01

Full Text Available The paper introduces a novel Personal Knowledge Management (PKM concept and prototype system. The system’s objective is to aid life-long-learning, resourcefulness, creativity, and teamwork of individuals throughout their academic and professional life and as contributors and beneficiaries of organizational and societal performance. Such a scope offers appealing and viable opportunities for stakeholders in the educational, professional, and developmental context. To further validate the underlying PKM application design, the systems thinking techniques of the transdiscipline of Informing Science (IS are employed. By applying Cohen’s IS-Framework, Leavitt’s Diamond Model, the IS-Meta Approach, and Gill’s and Murphy’s Three Dimensions of Design Task Complexity, the more specific KM models and methodologies central to the PKMS concept are aligned, introduced, and visualized. The extent of this introduction offers an essential overview, which can be deepened and broadened by using the cited URL and DOI links pointing to the available resources of the author’s prior publications. The paper emphasizes the differences of the proposed meme-based PKM System compared to its traditional organizational document-centric counterparts as well as its inherent complementing synergies. As a result, it shows how the system is closing in on Vannevar Bush’s still unfulfilled vison of the ‘Memex’, an as-close-as-it-gets imaginary ancestor celebrating its 70th anniversary as an inspiring idea never realized. It also addresses the scenario recently put forward by Levy which foresees a decentralizing revolution of knowledge management that gives more power and autonomy to individuals and self-organized groups. Accordingly, it also touches on the PKM potential in terms of Kuhn’s Scientific Revolutions and Disruptive Innovations.

Panorama 2014 - The energy scenarios put forward by the Ancre

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hache, Emmanuel

2014-01-01

The Alliance nationale de coordination de la recherche pour l'energie (Ancre), France's National Alliance for Energy Research Coordination which is made up of all of the country's public bodies involved in energy, wanted to contribute to the discussions that began within the framework of the debate initiated in autumn 2012 and as part of preparations for the law on energy transition. It wanted to do this by shedding some light (sharing its own expertise in research, technological development and innovation) on the various barriers (mainly of a technological nature) that will need to be overcome in order to reach the ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One of the aims was to assess the conditions required and the impacts of the various possible pathways for reaching this target. This approach sets out to shed light on options on the basis of efficiency criteria, both in terms of the energy policy and in terms of France's current economic and industrial situation. (author)

Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov (United States)

Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

Why natural disaster planning scenarios are often so disastrously wrong.

Science.gov (United States)

Verosub, K. L.

2017-12-01

Taken together the four hurricanes that impacted the United States in the summer of 2017 demonstrate the difficulties involved in trying to plan for any natural disaster, not simply a major hurricane. They also highlight the extraordinary degree to which small and/or random variations in initial conditions can have enormous consequences on the outcome of an event and on the ability of a society to respond to it. For example, if Harvey had been moving faster, it would have meant less rainfall and hence less flooding in the Houston area whereas a slight change in the path of Irma would have significantly affected which portions of the Florida peninsula would have experienced greater or lesser devastation. In the case of Marie, hurricane intensity and path as well as the terrain in Puerto Rico and the inherent state of its infrastructure greatly complicated relief and recovery efforts there. An additional factor that makes planning scenarios so difficult to develop is that major natural disasters can often be analyzed as a sequence of events. At each juncture in the sequence, the event might evolve along two or more very different pathways, which can lead to different outcomes. Sometimes, as with Nate, an event evolves more or less "as expected" and the planning scenario does what it was supposed to do, namely, help people respond to the event. But to a much greater extent than is usually recognized, small or random variations can drive an event off its expected trajectory and into a response realm that "no one could have foreseen." Even worse is when those small or random variations allow an event to bifurcate and follow two or more different pathways simultaneously, leading to a cascading disaster that totally overwhelms whatever planning and preparation has been put in place. Perhaps the main lessons to be learned from these storms is that planning for any disaster requires greater recognition of the importance of small or random factors and greater appreciation of

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

2017-01-01

existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

New AgMIP Scenarios: Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions, Geoengineering, or Nuclear War on Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Robock, A.; Xia, L.

2016-12-01

Climate is one of the most important factors determining crop yields and world food supplies. To be well prepared for possible futures, it is necessary to study yield changes of major crops in response to different climate forcings. Previous studies mainly focus on the impact from global warming. Here we propose that the AgMIP community also study the impacts of stratospheric aerosols on agriculture. While nature can load the stratosphere with sulfate aerosols for several years from large volcanic eruptions, humans could also put sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere on purpose through geoengineering or soot as a result of the fires from a nuclear war. Stratospheric aerosols would change the temperature, precipitation, total insolation, and fraction of diffuse radiation due to their radiative impacts, and could produce more ultraviolet radiation by ozone destruction. Surface ozone concentration could also change by changed transport from the stratosphere as well as changed tropospheric chemistry. As a demonstration of these effects, using the crop model in the NCAR Community Land Model (CLM-crop), we have studied sulfate injection geoengineering and nuclear war impacts on global agriculture in response to temperature, precipitation and radiation changes, and found significant changes in patterns of global food production. With the new ozone module in CLM-crop, we simulated how surface ozone concentration change under sulfate injection geoengineering would change the agriculture response. Agriculture would benefit from less surface ozone concentration associated with the specific geoengineering scenario comparing with the global warming scenario. Here, we would like to encourage more crop modelers to improve crop models in terms of crop responses to ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and diffuse radiation. We also invite more global crop modeling groups to use the climate forcing we would be happy to provide to gain a better understanding of global agriculture responses

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-01-01

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

The implementation of modern digital technology in x-ray medical diagnosis in Republic of Moldova - a stringent necessity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosca, Andrei

2011-01-01

The study includes analyses of current technical state of radiodiagnostic equipment from the Public Medico-Sanitary Institution of Ministry of Health of Republic of Moldova (IMSP MS RM). The traditional radiodiagnostic apparatuses were morally and physically outrun at 96,6% (in regional MSPI - 93,5%), inclusive the dental one - 92,0% (in raional MSPI - 97,2%), X-Ray exam -100%, mobile - 84,1% etc. The exploitation of the traditional radiodiagnostic apparatuses with high degree of physical and moral wear essentially diminished the quality of profile investigation, creates premises for diagnostic error perpetrating, increase the collective ionizing irradiation of population etc. In recent years the subvention of MSPI HM RM with digital radiodiagnostic equipment was started. This process is very hard unfold because of grave socio-economic crises in Republic of Moldova. Despite these obstacles the subvention of MSPI HM RM with digital equipment represents a stringent necessity and a time request.

Some particular problems put by operating experimental reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Candiotti, C.; Mabeix, R.; Uguen, R.

1960-01-01

On basis of a six years experience in operating research reactors, the authors explain, first, the difference in their utilization between these piles and another similar ones and, after, in consequence, they set off corresponding servitudes. These servitudes put very particular problems in operating itself, maintenance, modifications or additions on these apparatus. (author) [fr

The rapidly evolving centromere-specific histone has stringent functional requirements in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Science.gov (United States)

Ravi, Maruthachalam; Kwong, Pak N; Menorca, Ron M G; Valencia, Joel T; Ramahi, Joseph S; Stewart, Jodi L; Tran, Robert K; Sundaresan, Venkatesan; Comai, Luca; Chan, Simon W-L

2010-10-01

Centromeres control chromosome inheritance in eukaryotes, yet their DNA structure and primary sequence are hypervariable. Most animals and plants have megabases of tandem repeats at their centromeres, unlike yeast with unique centromere sequences. Centromere function requires the centromere-specific histone CENH3 (CENP-A in human), which replaces histone H3 in centromeric nucleosomes. CENH3 evolves rapidly, particularly in its N-terminal tail domain. A portion of the CENH3 histone-fold domain, the CENP-A targeting domain (CATD), has been previously shown to confer kinetochore localization and centromere function when swapped into human H3. Furthermore, CENP-A in human cells can be functionally replaced by CENH3 from distantly related organisms including Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We have used cenh3-1 (a null mutant in Arabidopsis thaliana) to replace endogenous CENH3 with GFP-tagged variants. A H3.3 tail domain-CENH3 histone-fold domain chimera rescued viability of cenh3-1, but CENH3's lacking a tail domain were nonfunctional. In contrast to human results, H3 containing the A. thaliana CATD cannot complement cenh3-1. GFP-CENH3 from the sister species A. arenosa functionally replaces A. thaliana CENH3. GFP-CENH3 from the close relative Brassica rapa was targeted to centromeres, but did not complement cenh3-1, indicating that kinetochore localization and centromere function can be uncoupled. We conclude that CENH3 function in A. thaliana, an organism with large tandem repeat centromeres, has stringent requirements for functional complementation in mitosis.

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

Marketing support of putting on the own trade marks in the retail sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Firsova S.

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The article summarizes the practical experience of putting own trade mark by the domestic enterprise on the food market of Ukraine. The author has investigated the marketing strategy of putting on the own trade mark and evaluated its results for the enterprise, formed and implemented to the practice the measures for evaluating the attractiveness of company’s own trade mark.

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

2015-02-01

Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

IMPROVING THE STUDENTS’ EFL WRITING ABILITY THROUGH “PUT YOURSELF IN THE PICTURE” STRATEGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Lukman Syafii

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract: This Action research was intended to improve the students’ EFL writing ability through “Put Yourself in the Picture” strategy. This research involved 33 first year managemen major of students A of Muhammadiyah University of Ponorogo in the academic year 2015/2016. This research was conducted in two cycles by following the procedures of the action research, namely, planning, implementing, observing, and reflecting. Each cycle of the research encompassed three meetings. The data of the research were gathered through observation checklists, field notes, questionnaire, and portfolio. The findings of research showed that “Put Yourself in the Picture” strategy has proven effectively to improve the student’ writing ability. The improvement could be seen from the increase of the students’ average writing score. Besides, “Put Yourself in the Picture” strategy can increase the students’ participation during the process of writing. Key words: “Put Yourself in the Picture” strategy, writing ability

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

CHEMICAL LEUCODERMA: INDIAN SCENARIO, PROGNOSIS, AND TREATMENT

Science.gov (United States)

Bajaj, A K; Saraswat, Abir; Srivastav, P K

2010-01-01

Chemical leucoderma is an industrial disorder in developed countries and the common causative chemicals are phenols and catechols. Due to stringent controls and preventive measures the incidence has come down. In the recent past various chemicals in consumer products have also been documented to produce depigmentation. In India due to lax quality control measures chemical leucoderma due to consumer items is not uncommon.The various consumer items documented to cause contact depigmentation are sticker bindis, rain shoes, plastic chappals, hair dye/ black henna(kali mehndi), alta, wallets and even mobile plastic covers. PMID:21063517

Chemical leucoderma: Indian scenario, prognosis, and treatment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bajaj A

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Chemical leucoderma is an industrial disorder in developed countries and the common causative chemicals are phenols and catechols. Due to stringent controls and preventive measures the incidence has come down. In the recent past various chemicals in consumer products have also been documented to produce depigmentation.In India due to lax quality control measures chemical leucoderma due to consumer items is not uncommon.The various consumer items documented to cause contact depigmentation are sticker bindis,rain shoes,plastic chappals,hair dye/ black henna( kali mehndi, alta, wallets and even mobile plastic covers.

Put order picking system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đurđević Dragan D.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays the warehouse is very important logistic component of the supply chain, where order-picking systems have important role. Due to the significant impact on logistics performance permanent goals are to increase efficiency and reduce the cost of these systems. To achieve these goals, there are different researches, and their success is determined by the achieved performances. Performances order picking process are dependent on the applied technology concepts of order-picking system, as well as the ways in which it is organized and managed. In addition to the standard conceptions (the man to good and good to the man is one of the newer, so-called. 'put' system - the inverse order-picking. The aim of this paper is to describe this concept, point out its core strengths and weaknesses and provide a basis that may be of importance in the development of warehouse technological solutions and application of this order-picking systems concept.

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea

2006-01-01

formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Science.gov (United States)

Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-12-18

Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Building an ensemble of climate scenarios for decision-making in hydrology: benefits, pitfalls and uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

2013-04-01

Using climate model output to explore climate change impacts on hydrology requires several considerations, choices and methods in the post treatment of the datasets. In the effort of producing a comprehensive data base of climate change scenarios for over 300 watersheds in the Canadian province of Québec, a selection of state of the art procedures were applied to an ensemble comprising 87 climate simulations. The climate data ensemble is based on global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 3 (CMIP3) and regional climate simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and operational simulations produced at Ouranos. Information on the response of hydrological systems to changing climate conditions can be derived by linking climate simulations with hydrological models. However, the direct use of raw climate model output variables as drivers for hydrological models is limited by issues such as spatial resolution and the calibration of hydro models with observations. Methods for downscaling and bias correcting the data are required to achieve seamless integration of climate simulations with hydro models. The effects on the results of four different approaches to data post processing were explored and compared. We present the lessons learned from building the largest data base yet for multiple stakeholders in the hydro power and water management sector in Québec putting an emphasis on the benefits and pitfalls in choosing simulations, extracting the data, performing bias corrections and documenting the results. A discussion of the sources and significance of uncertainties in the data will also be included. The climatological data base was subsequently used by the state owned hydro power company Hydro-Québec and the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ), the provincial water authority, to simulate future stream flows and analyse the impacts on hydrological indicators. While this

TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchholtz, Mikael

2005-01-01

The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, F.; Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

Are Dutch residents ready for a more stringent policy to enhance the energy performance of their homes?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Middelkoop, Manon van; Vringer, Kees; Visser, Hans

2017-01-01

Investments in the energy performance of houses offer good prospects for reducing energy consumption and CO_2 emissions. However, people are not easily convinced of the need to take measures to improve the energy performance of their houses, even when financial benefits outweigh the costs. This article analyses the factors that influence the decision for improving the energy performance of existing homes, including policy instruments. Subsequently, the article provides policy suggestions on how to stimulate energy performance improvements. Both owners and tenants (50–70%) support government policy on energy performance improvements to existing homes. Nevertheless, people also have strong feelings of autonomy regarding their homes. Our results underline the importance of well-informed and competent decision-makers. Introducing the use of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) into the tax system for energy and residential buildings might therefore be an effective way to increase the interest of owners in the EPC, improve the use and effect of this informative instrument, and make the first step towards bridging the tension between autonomy and more stringent instruments.

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen R. Carpenter

2006-06-01

Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

Evaluation of alternative partitioning/transmutation scenarios using transmutation in light-water reactors (LWRs)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, E.D.; Renier, J.P.; Del Cul, B.; Spencer, B.

2005-01-01

the plutonium and minor actinides would be in process or in storage and only fission products would be put into the repository. Previous results showed this scenario could be operated for more than ten partitioning-transmutation cycles (>300 years). Transition to a fast reactor transmutation scenario would be possible anytime during this time period that fast reactors were needed for other purposes. However, in the event of a cessation of nuclear power, transfer of all of the plutonium and minor actinides from the storage inventory into the repository might become necessary. Thus, continuing studies have been made to evaluate alternatives to the partitioning/transmutation scenario to minimize the effect of such an event onto repository operations. Results of these studies will be presented. (authors)

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Risky Drinking Can Put a Chill on Your Summer Fun

Science.gov (United States)

... on Your Summer Fun Print version Risky Drinking Can Put a Chill on Your Summer Fun Summer ... adults involve the use of alcohol. 1 Swimmers can get in over their heads. Alcohol impairs judgment ...

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

2012-01-01

scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

Flexible Multilingual Education: Putting Children's Needs First

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Jean-Jacques

2014-01-01

This book examines the benefits of multilingual education that puts children's needs and interests above the individual languages involved. It advocates flexible multilingual education, which builds upon children's actual home resources and provides access to both the local and global languages that students need for their educational and…

Deep learning for quality assessment in live video streaming

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Torres Vega, M.; Mocanu, D.C.; Famaey, J.; Stavrou, S.; Liotta, A.

Video content providers put stringent requirements on the quality assessment methods realized on their services. They need to be accurate, real-time, adaptable to new content, and scalable as the video set grows. In this letter, we introduce a novel automated and computationally efficient video

Put reading first: Positive effects of direct instruction and scaffolding ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Put reading first: Positive effects of direct instruction and scaffolding for ESL learners struggling with reading. ... are intended to open up for debate a topic of critical importance to the country's education system. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

MIV Project: Mission scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

1997-01-01

Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

2003-01-01

The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Scenarios of future energy intensities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

Energy scenarios for the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauerman, V.

2002-01-01

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

The role of anxiety in golf putting performance

OpenAIRE

Kenny, Ian; MacNamara, Aine; Shafat, Amir; Dunphy, Orla; Murphy, Sinead; O'Connor, Kenneth; Ryan, Tara; Waldron, Gerry

2009-01-01

peer-reviewed INTRODUCTION: Anxiety???s influence on performance continues to be one of the main research interests for sport psychologists (Hanin, 2000). It is apparent, though, that there is a lack of empirical research characterising the multi-disciplinary effect of anxiety on sports performance. The current study aimed to ascertain biomechanical (accuracy, movement variability) and psychological (anxiety) markers to determine how anxiety affects golf putting. METHOD: 22 healthy s...

Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

2010-01-01

Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios; Syrie, Iran: et maintenant? Trois scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tertrais, Bruno [Fondation pour la recherche strategique, 4 bis rue des Patures 75016 Paris (France)

2013-10-15

Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

Carbon dioxide removal and tradeable put options at scale

Science.gov (United States)

Lockley, Andrew; Coffman, D.’Maris

2018-05-01

Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy (call options) or sell (put options) a given underlying asset at a particular price at a future date. The purchaser of a put option may exercise the right to sell the asset to the issuer at any point in the future before the expiration of the contract. These rights may be contracted directly between two parties (i.e. over-the-counter), or may be sold publicly on formal exchanges, such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange. If the latter, they are called tradeable put options (TPOs) because they can be bought and sold by third-parties via a secondary market. The World Bank has a Pilot Auction Facility for methane and carbon mediation which uses TPOs in carbon-relevant markets, giving producers (of e.g. forest restoration) a floor price for their product [1]. This enables long-term producer planning. We discuss the potentially broader use of these options contracts in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) markets generally and at scale. We conclude that they can, if priced correctly, encourage rapid investment both in CDR technology and in operational capacity. TPOs could do this without creating the same type of systemic risk associated with other instruments (e.g. long-dated futures). Nevertheless, the widespread use of such instruments potentially creates novel risks. These include the political risk of premature closure [2] (conventionally rendered as ‘counting your chickens before they are hatched’) and the economic risk of overpaying for carbon removal services. These instruments require careful structuring, and do not inoculate the CDR market against regulatory disruption, or political pressure. Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of TPO markets in CDR, but we urge caution in respect of identified risks.

Choosing put option parameters based on quantiles from the distribution of portfolio value

OpenAIRE

Bell, Peter Newton

2014-01-01

This paper explores how a put option changes the probability distribution of portfolio value. The paper extends the model introduced in Bell (2014) by allowing both the quantity and strike price to vary. I use the 5% quantile from the portfolio distribution to measure riskiness and compare different put options. I report a so-called ‘quantile surface’ that shows the quantile across different combinations of quantity and strike price. I find that it is possible to maximize the quantile by ...

Introduction of Renewable Energy Certificate in the Indian scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goyal, Mohit; Jha, Rakesh

2009-01-01

Generation deficit in India is in the range of 9% and the scenario is expected to get grimmer in the context of high growth rate of the country. With peak power shortage as high as 15.2% (Source: Annual report FY08, MoP) the nation needs to harness all forms of generation including renewables, which currently has a meager share of 8% of the total generation in the country at present. Shooting price of crude oil reaching up to $135 (May 2008) per barrel along with increasing awareness and concerns about environment, the stage seems to be set for an increased mix of Renewable Energy (RE) into the overall energy requirement in the country. Keeping the concern for environment and energy security for the country in mind, government of India has been putting emphasis on promotion of renewable energy sources. Central and state government policies have always been instrumental in the propagation of capacity additions in renewable energy power. One of the main aims of these policies has been on increasing the private sector participation in this sector. In the pre-reform period, the state governments took policy decisions regarding financial incentives, buy-back tariff and other measures targeting investment in renewable energy. However, the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) are now responsible for many of these tasks. SERCs have come up with a host of initiatives, inline with their functions laid down in the Electricity Act 2003, to increase the share of renewable energy inside their respective States. Despite the efforts of SERCs, large potential of renewable energy generation remains untapped. There is lack of clarity on how to promote renewable energy generation inside states which are not having significant renewable energy generation potential. This paper explores the way in which SERCs can introduce measures to further promote renewable energy generation inside the country. We discuss in detail the framework to promote renewable energy through a

Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

2012-01-01

Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Jakimi

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan - a data integration approach

Science.gov (United States)

Okada, T.; McAneney, K. J.; Chen, K.

2011-12-01

Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data - census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data - this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US 12.5 billion). Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like that presented here have

Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon P. Sadler

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-01

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-15

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Current scenario

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

Transfer of mechanical energy during the shot put

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Błażkiewicz Michalina

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyse transfer of mechanical energy between body segments during the glide shot put. A group of eight elite throwers from the Polish National Team was analysed in the study. Motion analysis of each throw was recorded using an optoelectronic Vicon system composed of nine infrared camcorders and Kistler force plates. The power and energy were computed for the phase of final acceleration of the glide shot put. The data were normalized with respect to time using the algorithm of the fifth order spline and their values were interpolated with respect to the percentage of total time, assuming that the time of the final weight acceleration movement was different for each putter. Statistically significant transfer was found in the study group between the following segments: Right Knee – Right Hip (p = 0.0035, Left Hip - Torso (p = 0.0201, Torso – Right Shoulder (p = 0.0122 and Right Elbow – Right Wrist (p = 0.0001. Furthermore, the results of cluster analysis showed that the kinetic chain used during the final shot acceleration movement had two different models. Differences between the groups were revealed mainly in the energy generated by the hips and trunk.

"Danish women put up with less"

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Leine, Marie; Mikkelsen, Henrik Hvenegaard

2018-01-01

women put up with less”—and that the report was, in effect, invalid. In this article we outline the discursive space that emerges when the mass media seeks to tackle symptoms of inequality in Denmark. We argue that the ideology of gender equality comes to construct a dominant discourse, which silences...... symptoms of inequality. Thereby, gendered violence in Denmark is rendered invisible in public awareness.......Denmark is a country that has been heralded for its high levels of gender equality for decades. One would have expected, then, that the recent EU report that ranked Denmark as the EU-member country with the highest occurrence of physical violence towards women would have created a public uproar...

Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Nicola

2011-01-01

Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

EnerFuture Energy Scenarios to 2035 'Understanding our Energy Future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting - February 2014

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2014-01-01

The EnerFuture service provides projections to 2035 of energy supply and demand across the world, powered by the POLES model, to help you with what to expect in the energy industry in the mid-term. Our energy forecasting team have developed three key energy scenarios (Balance, Emergence and Renaissance) to illustrate possible futures. Balance scenario: Balance provides an outlook of the energy system up to 2035 based on current policies and trends. Sustained growth of China and other emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but confirmed energy policy commitments in several regions play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. However, non-coordinated policies result in soaring CO_2 emissions across the world and energy prices rise. Emergence scenario: This scenario explores the implications of more stringent climate policies, with more ambitious efforts on energy efficiency, initiatives to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and a real emergence of renewable technologies. Europe goes beyond its -20% targets by 2020, and the OECD and emerging countries meet their Copenhagen objectives. Following this, a new green deal is launched to reduce world emissions by a factor of 2 by 2050. Renaissance scenario: With strong efforts in the exploitation and production of unconventional oil and gas resources, the world encounters a fossil fuels renaissance with the appearance of new key actors and ultimately new geopolitical configurations changing the energy independence of several countries. For climate efforts, this new paradigm leads to progressively weaker policies. Further analysis and key findings are available here: - Increasing economic activity and wealth drives energy consumption, in a balance between energy prices and innovation; - As Non-OECD exceeds OECD oil demand, massive financial flows underlie the shifts in global oil trade; - Optimistic resource assumptions and moderate production costs would lead to an oil production Renaissance

PUTTING COMMUNICATION FRONT AND CENTER IN INSTITUTIONAL THEORY AND ANALYSIS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cornelissen, J.P.; Durand, R.; Fiss, P.C.; Lammers, J.C.; Vaara, E.

2015-01-01

We conceptualize the roots of cognitive, linguistic, and communicative theories of institutions and outline the promise and potential of a stronger communication focus for institutional theory. In particular, we outline a theoretical approach that puts communication at the heart of theories of

Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Johns, Kenneth

2004-01-01

.... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

2013-01-01

Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

Swine-Flu Plans Put E-Learning in the Spotlight

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Michelle R.; Ash, Katie

2009-01-01

Last school year, many educators were caught unprepared when schools closed in response to cases of swine flu. This time around, both the federal government and school districts are putting specific online-learning measures in place to get ready for possible closures or waves of teacher and student absences because of a flu outbreak. To prepare…

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

2005-02-01

This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

Resolution of low-velocity control in golf putting differentiates professionals from amateurs.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasegawa, Yumiko; Fujii, Keisuke; Miura, Akito; Yamamoto, Yuji

2017-07-01

It is difficult for humans to apply small amounts of force precisely during motor control. However, experts who have undergone extended training are thought to be able to control low-velocity movement with precision. We investigated the resolution of motor control in golf putting. A total of 10 professional and 10 high-level amateur golfers participated. Putting distances were 0.6-3.3 m, in increments of 0.3 m. We measured the impact velocity and the club-face angle at impact, and the acceleration profile of the downswing. The professionals showed significantly smaller coefficients of variation with respect to impact velocity and smaller root mean square errors in relation to acceleration profiles than did the amateurs. To examine the resolution of motor control for impact velocity, we investigated intra-participant differences in the impact velocity of the club head at two adjacent distances. We found that professionals had higher velocity precision when putting small distance intervals than did amateurs. That is, professionals had higher resolution of low-velocity control than did high-level amateurs. Our results suggest that outstanding performance at a task involves the ability to recognise small distinctions and to produce appropriate movements.

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

Conditions for an optimal safety culture in construction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijer, S.D.; Schaefer, W.F.; Dias, L.M.A.; Coble, R.J.

1997-01-01

This article discusses how much attention construction companies generally pay to the concept of safety and how they perceive it. The presupposition for the argument put forward in this article is that safety is not only the result of clear-cut and stringent measures, but that practical safety on

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

2008-01-01

The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

The variation of the fine-structure constant from disformal couplings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Bruck, Carsten van; Mifsud, Jurgen [Consortium for Fundamental Physics, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Hounsfield Road, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom); Nunes, Nelson J., E-mail: c.vandebruck@sheffield.ac.uk, E-mail: jmifsud1@sheffield.ac.uk, E-mail: njnunes@fc.ul.pt [Instituto de Astrofísica e Ciências do Espaço, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, PT1749-016 Lisboa (Portugal)

2015-12-01

We study a theory in which the electromagnetic field is disformally coupled to a scalar field, in addition to a usual non-minimal electromagnetic coupling. We show that disformal couplings modify the expression for the fine-structure constant, α. As a result, the theory we consider can explain the non-zero reported variation in the evolution of α by purely considering disformal couplings. We also find that if matter and photons are coupled in the same way to the scalar field, disformal couplings itself do not lead to a variation of the fine-structure constant. A number of scenarios are discussed consistent with the current astrophysical, geochemical, laboratory and the cosmic microwave background radiation constraints on the cosmological evolution of α. The models presented are also consistent with the current type Ia supernovae constraints on the effective dark energy equation of state. We find that the Oklo bound in particular puts strong constraints on the model parameters. From our numerical results, we find that the introduction of a non-minimal electromagnetic coupling enhances the cosmological variation in α. Better constrained data is expected to be reported by ALMA and with the forthcoming generation of high-resolution ultra-stable spectrographs such as PEPSI, ESPRESSO, and ELT-HIRES. Furthermore, an expected increase in the sensitivity of molecular and nuclear clocks will put a more stringent constraint on the theory.

The variation of the fine-structure constant from disformal couplings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Bruck, Carsten van; Mifsud, Jurgen; Nunes, Nelson J.

2015-01-01

We study a theory in which the electromagnetic field is disformally coupled to a scalar field, in addition to a usual non-minimal electromagnetic coupling. We show that disformal couplings modify the expression for the fine-structure constant, α. As a result, the theory we consider can explain the non-zero reported variation in the evolution of α by purely considering disformal couplings. We also find that if matter and photons are coupled in the same way to the scalar field, disformal couplings itself do not lead to a variation of the fine-structure constant. A number of scenarios are discussed consistent with the current astrophysical, geochemical, laboratory and the cosmic microwave background radiation constraints on the cosmological evolution of α. The models presented are also consistent with the current type Ia supernovae constraints on the effective dark energy equation of state. We find that the Oklo bound in particular puts strong constraints on the model parameters. From our numerical results, we find that the introduction of a non-minimal electromagnetic coupling enhances the cosmological variation in α. Better constrained data is expected to be reported by ALMA and with the forthcoming generation of high-resolution ultra-stable spectrographs such as PEPSI, ESPRESSO, and ELT-HIRES. Furthermore, an expected increase in the sensitivity of molecular and nuclear clocks will put a more stringent constraint on the theory

When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

2010-01-01

In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

2013-01-01

After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2005-03-30

This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laqua H.P.

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan – a data integration approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Okada

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data – census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data – this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US$ 12.5 billion. Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like

Putting the Fun Back into Fluency Instruction

Science.gov (United States)

Cahill, Mary Ann; Gregory, Anne E.

2011-01-01

Based on recent research in fluency instruction, the authors present a scenario in which a teacher focuses her fluency instruction on authentic fluency tasks based in performance. Beginning with establishing a student-friendly definition of fluency and culminating with student engagement in fun fluency activities, this article explores the…

Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harvey, L.D.D.

2013-01-01

This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

Bounds for the American perpetual put on a stock index

OpenAIRE

Paulsen, V.

2001-01-01

Let us consider n stocks with dependent price processes each following a geometric Brownian motion. We want to investigate the American perpetual put on an index of those stocks. We will provide inner and outer boundaries for its early exercise region by using a decomposition technique for optimal stopping.

Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

2012-01-01

In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

Putting Order into Our Universe: The Concept of Blended Learning—A Methodology within the Concept-based Terminology Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joana Fernandes

2016-06-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at discussing the advantages of a methodology design grounded on a concept-based approach to Terminology applied to the most prominent scenario of current Higher Education: blended learning. Terminology is a discipline that aims at representing, describing and defining specialized knowledge through language, putting order into our universe (Nuopponen, 2011. Concepts, as elements of the structure of knowledge (Sager, 1990 emerge as a complex research object. Can they be found in language? A concept-based approach to Terminology implies a clear-cut view of the role of language in terminological work: though language is postulated as being a fundamental tool to grasp, describe and organize knowledge, an isomorphic relationship between language and knowledge cannot be taken for granted. In other words, the foundational premise of a concept-based approach is that there is no one-to-one correspondence between atomic elements of knowledge and atomic elements of linguistic expression. This is why a methodological approach to Terminology merely based upon specialized text research is regarded as biased (Costa, 2013. As a consequence, we argue that interactional strategies between terminologist and domain expert deserve particular research attention. To our mind, the key to concept-based terminological work is to carry out a concept analysis of data gathered from a specialised text corpora combined with an elicitation process of the tacit knowledge and concept-oriented discursive negotiation. Following such view, we put forward a methodology to answer the question: how is blended learning defined in the Post-Bologna scenario? Even though there are numerous high-quality models and practical descriptions for its implementation (similarly to other concepts related to distance learning, the need to understand, demarcate and harmonize the concept of blended learning against the current Higher Education background results from the premise that

Ethical quandaries in spiritual healing and herbal medicine: A critical analysis of the morality of traditional medicine advertising in southern African urban societies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mawere Munyaradzi

2011-09-01

Full Text Available hat said, the paper urges practitioners to seriously consider the morality of their adverts as in most cases they (adverts do more harm than good. Further to that, the piece recommends the governments of the affected countries to put in place stringent measures to address this mounting problem.

Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

2013-01-01

Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

Climate change scenario data for the national parks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, D.

2003-01-01

This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Colin; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Narasimha D.; McCollum, David; Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan

2016-01-01

Household air pollution from traditional cook stoves presents a greater health hazard than any other environmental factor. Despite government efforts to support clean-burning cooking fuels, over 700 million people in South Asia could still rely on traditional stoves in 2030. This number could rise if climate change mitigation efforts increase energy costs. Here we quantify the costs of support policies to make clean cooking affordable to all South Asians under four increasingly stringent climate policy scenarios. Our most stringent mitigation scenario increases clean fuel costs 38% in 2030 relative to the baseline, keeping 21% more South Asians on traditional stoves or increasing the minimum support policy cost to achieve universal clean cooking by up to 44%. The extent of this increase depends on how policymakers allocate subsidies between clean fuels and stoves. These additional costs are within the range of financial transfers to South Asia estimated in efforts-sharing scenarios of international climate agreements.

Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gracceva, Francesco

2005-01-01

Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

Non-sectarian scenario experiments in socio-ecological knowledge building for multi-use marine environments: Insights from New Zealand's Marine Futures project

KAUST Repository

Le Heron, Richard

2016-01-29

The challenges of managing marine ecosystems for multiple users, while well recognised, has not led to clear strategies, principles or practice. The paper uses novel workshop based thought-experiments to address these concerns. These took the form of trans-disciplinary Non-Sectarian Scenario Experiments (NSSE), involving participants who agreed to put aside their disciplinary interests and commercial and institutional obligations. The NSSE form of co-production of knowledge is a distinctive addition to the participatory and scenario literatures in marine resource management (MRM). Set in the context of resource use conflicts in New Zealand, the workshops assembled diverse participants in the marine economy to co-develop and co-explore the making of socio-ecological knowledge and identify capability required for a new generation of multi-use oriented resource management. The thought-experiments assumed that non-sectarian navigation of scenarios will resource a step-change in marine management by facilitating new connections, relationships, and understandings of potential marine futures. Two questions guided workshop interactions: what science needs spring from pursuing imaginable possibilities and directions in a field of scenarios, and what kinds of institutions would aid the generation of science knowledge, and it application to policy and management solutions. The effectiveness of the thought- experiments helped identify ways of dealing with core problems in multi-use marine management, such as the urgent need to cope with ecological and socio-economic surprise, and define and address cumulative impacts. Discussion focuses on how the workshops offered fresh perspectives and insights into a number of challenges. These challenges include building relations of trust and collective organisation, showing the importance of values-means-ends pathways, developing facilitative legislation to enable initiatives, and the utility of the NSSEs in informing new governance and

Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anniken Enger

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

2003-01-01

A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

Ontario demand response scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-09-01

Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

Carbon emission scenarios of China's power sector: Impact of controlling measures and carbon pricing mechanism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Liu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The study constructs a low-carbon path analysis model of China's power sector based on TIMES model and presents a comparative analysis of carbon emissions under Reference, Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios, and the main difference of the three scenarios is manifested by policy selection and policy strength. The conclusions are drawn as follows: (1 The peak of carbon emission in China's power sector will range from 4.0 GtCO2 to 4.8 GtCO2, which implies an increment of 0.5–1.3 billion or 14%–35% from the 2015 levels. (2 Introducing carbon price is an effective way to inhibit coal power and promote non-fossil fuels and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage applications (CCUS. The carbon emission reduction effects will gradually increase with carbon price. When the carbon price attains to CN¥150 t−1CO2, the CO2 emission can decrease by 36% than that without carbon price. (3 CCUS is one of important contributing factor to reduce CO2 emission in power sector. Generally speaking, the development of non-fossil fuels and energy efficiency improvement are two main drivers for carbon mitigation, but once the carbon price reaches up to CN¥106 t−1CO2, the CCUS will be required to equip with thermal power units and its contribution on carbon emission reduction will remarkably increase. When carbon price increases to CN¥150 t−1CO2 in 2050, the application of CCUS will account for 44% of total emission reduction. (4 In the scenario with carbon price of CN¥150 t−1CO2, power sector would be decarbonized significantly, and the CO2 intensity will be 0.22 kgCO2 (kW h−1, but power sector is far from the goal that achieving net zero emission. In order to realize the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development goal that proposed by the Paris Agreement, more efforts are needed to be put to further reduce the carbon emission reduction of power sector. Based on the above scenario analysis, the study proposes four recommendations

Effects of physical randomness training on virtual and laboratory golf putting performance in novices.

Science.gov (United States)

Pataky, T C; Lamb, P F

2018-06-01

External randomness exists in all sports but is perhaps most obvious in golf putting where robotic putters sink only 80% of 5 m putts due to unpredictable ball-green dynamics. The purpose of this study was to test whether physical randomness training can improve putting performance in novices. A virtual random-physics golf-putting game was developed based on controlled ball-roll data. Thirty-two subjects were assigned a unique randomness gain (RG) ranging from 0.1 to 2.0-times real-world randomness. Putter face kinematics were measured in 5 m laboratory putts before and after five days of virtual training. Performance was quantified using putt success rate and "miss-adjustment correlation" (MAC), the correlation between left-right miss magnitude and subsequent right-left kinematic adjustments. Results showed no RG-success correlation (r = -0.066, p = 0.719) but mildly stronger correlations with MAC for face angle (r = -0.168, p = 0.358) and clubhead path (r = -0.302, p = 0.093). The strongest RG-MAC correlation was observed during virtual training (r = -0.692, p golf putting kinematics. Adaptation to external physical randomness during virtual training may therefore help golfers adapt to external randomness in real-world environments.

Base case and perturbation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmunds, T

1998-10-01

This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

The Posture of Putting One's Palms Together Modulates Visual Motion Event Perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Godai; Gyoba, Jiro

2018-02-01

We investigated the effect of an observer's hand postures on visual motion perception using the stream/bounce display. When two identical visual objects move across collinear horizontal trajectories toward each other in a two-dimensional display, observers perceive them as either streaming or bouncing. In our previous study, we found that when observers put their palms together just below the coincidence point of the two objects, the percentage of bouncing responses increased, mainly depending on the proprioceptive information from their own hands. However, it remains unclear if the tactile or haptic (force) information produced by the postures mostly influences the stream/bounce perception. We solved this problem by changing the tactile and haptic information on the palms of the hands. Experiment 1 showed that the promotion of bouncing perception was observed only when the posture of directly putting one's palms together was used, while there was no effect when a brick was sandwiched between the participant's palms. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the strength of force used when putting the palms together had no effect on increasing bounce perception. Our findings indicate that the hands-induced bounce effect derives from the tactile information produced by the direct contact between both palms.

Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

2006-04-15

This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

NASA Human Spaceflight Scenarios - Do All Our Models Still Say No?

Science.gov (United States)

Zapata, Edgar

2017-01-01

human spaceflight differently. 1) If costs have traditionally been so high that adding them up is discouraging, are there any new facts on the ground offering paths to significantly lower costs? 2) If NASA's spaceflight budget and process is an over-arching constraint, with its planning limitations favoring short-term outlooks, is there a way to step outside the budget box? 3) If life cycle answers have historically been too uncertain to be useful, is there a process where stakeholders gain valuable insights merely from emphasizing a common understanding around questions? We analyze the potential life cycle cost of assorted NASA human spaceflight architectures - an architecture as a sum of individual systems, working together. With the prior questions of high costs, limited budgets and uncertainties in mind, public private partnerships are central in these architectures. The cost data for current commercial public private partnerships is encouraging, as are cost estimates for future partnership approaches beyond low Earth orbit. Private capital, directly or indirectly, an ingredient of public private partnerships, may be a significant factor in finding a path around the limits of the NASA spaceflight budget. Also, understanding and reviewing the pros, cons and uncertainties of assorted architectures can assist in developing a common understanding around key questions as important if not more so than the numbers and answers. Lastly, a scenario planning technique is briefly explored that can mature a common understanding about the agencies situation at hand and how diverse stakeholders can go forward together. Scenario planning, rather than focusing on answers, places emphasis on stakeholders developing a common understanding about the future. Putting aside costs, this is especially true of questions about sustainability and growth, results, benefits and expectations. While efficiency exercises or analysis look to reduce resources in one place to apply them elsewhere

On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

2005-01-01

Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

2012-01-01

Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

2016-01-01

We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty. (paper)

New reactors concepts and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gandini, A.

2001-01-01

In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

Minimizing worst-case and average-case makespan over scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Feuerstein, Esteban; Marchetti-Spaccamela, Alberto; Schalekamp, Frans; Sitters, R.A.; van der Ster, Suzanne; Stougie, Leen; van Zuylen, Anke

2017-01-01

We consider scheduling problems over scenarios where the goal is to find a single assignment of the jobs to the machines which performs well over all scenarios in an explicitly given set. Each scenario is a subset of jobs that must be executed in that scenario. The two objectives that we consider

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

Science.gov (United States)

Sherwin, P.

1981-01-01

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

Managing coherence via put/get windows

Science.gov (United States)

Blumrich, Matthias A [Ridgefield, CT; Chen, Dong [Croton on Hudson, NY; Coteus, Paul W [Yorktown Heights, NY; Gara, Alan G [Mount Kisco, NY; Giampapa, Mark E [Irvington, NY; Heidelberger, Philip [Cortlandt Manor, NY; Hoenicke, Dirk [Ossining, NY; Ohmacht, Martin [Yorktown Heights, NY

2011-01-11

A method and apparatus for managing coherence between two processors of a two processor node of a multi-processor computer system. Generally the present invention relates to a software algorithm that simplifies and significantly speeds the management of cache coherence in a message passing parallel computer, and to hardware apparatus that assists this cache coherence algorithm. The software algorithm uses the opening and closing of put/get windows to coordinate the activated required to achieve cache coherence. The hardware apparatus may be an extension to the hardware address decode, that creates, in the physical memory address space of the node, an area of virtual memory that (a) does not actually exist, and (b) is therefore able to respond instantly to read and write requests from the processing elements.

Managing coherence via put/get windows

Science.gov (United States)

Blumrich, Matthias A [Ridgefield, CT; Chen, Dong [Croton on Hudson, NY; Coteus, Paul W [Yorktown Heights, NY; Gara, Alan G [Mount Kisco, NY; Giampapa, Mark E [Irvington, NY; Heidelberger, Philip [Cortlandt Manor, NY; Hoenicke, Dirk [Ossining, NY; Ohmacht, Martin [Yorktown Heights, NY

2012-02-21

A method and apparatus for managing coherence between two processors of a two processor node of a multi-processor computer system. Generally the present invention relates to a software algorithm that simplifies and significantly speeds the management of cache coherence in a message passing parallel computer, and to hardware apparatus that assists this cache coherence algorithm. The software algorithm uses the opening and closing of put/get windows to coordinate the activated required to achieve cache coherence. The hardware apparatus may be an extension to the hardware address decode, that creates, in the physical memory address space of the node, an area of virtual memory that (a) does not actually exist, and (b) is therefore able to respond instantly to read and write requests from the processing elements.

Clipboard: Putting T cells to sleep: a new paradigm for immune ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2006-11-13

Nov 13, 2006 ... Home; Journals; Journal of Biosciences; Volume 31; Issue 5. Clipboard: Putting T cells to sleep: a new paradigm for immune evasion by persistent viruses. Shweta Dubey Shahid Jameel. Volume 31 Issue 5 December 2006 pp 497-501 ...

Debye shielding revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mak, S.S.

1992-01-01

In deriving the expression for the Debye length, the assumption eφ << kT is often invoked casually. Using a scaling technique this assumption is put in perspective. Furthermore, it is shown that the commonly accepted linearization condition is in fact much more stringent (by two orders of magnitude) than necessary. (author)

SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

2015-12-01

Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathieu, Mathilde

2013-01-01

This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

Science.gov (United States)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

CERN Document Server

Scandale, Walter

2008-01-01

The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

2013-01-01

The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2003-01-01

Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

Validation of EOPs/FRGs Procedures Using LOHS Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bajs, T.; Konjarek, D.; Vukovic, J.

2012-01-01

Validation of EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) and FRGs (Function Restoration Guidelines) can be achieved either through plant full scope simulator or on desk top exercises. The desk top exercise is conducted when for the given scenario plant full scope simulator is not suitable. In either verification cases predefined scenario should be evaluated and possible branching foreseen. The scenario presented is LOHS, with bleed and feed procedure initiated. Best estimate light water reactor transient analysis code RELAP5/mod3.3 was used in calculation. Standardized detailed plant model was used. Operator actions were modelled from beginning of the scenario to its termination.(author).

Putting science on the agenda

CERN Multimedia

2012-01-01

The job of CERN Director-General comes with a lot of responsibility, and that’s particularly true today. We’re living through a period of unique circumstances for science. Positive indicators, such as a renewal of interest in physical sciences at the University level and unprecedented public interest in the LHC, are aligning with storm clouds in the form of a prolonged economic crisis that will put downward pressure on everyone’s budgets.   That means that science has to make its voice heard if it’s to preserve support, and if it wants to be in a position to play the role it must in navigating the major societal challenges of our time. For that reason, I have been a fairly rare sight at CERN of late. Last week, I was in Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. It was my second time at Davos, and I used the opportunity to argue that science should be more closely linked to the political thread of the meeting. I think my argument was he...

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

2001-01-01

visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

Instructions to "put the phone down" do not improve the quality of bystander initiated dispatcher-assisted cardiopulmonary resuscitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Todd B; Saini, Devashish; Pepper, Tracy; Mirza, Muzna; Nandigam, Hari Krishna; Kaza, Niroop; Cofield, Stacey S

2008-02-01

The quality of early bystander CPR appears important in maximizing survival. This trial tests whether explicit instructions to "put the phone down" improve the quality of bystander initiated dispatch-assisted CPR. In a randomized, double-blinded, controlled trial, subjects were randomized to a modified version of the Medical Priority Dispatch System (MPDS) version 11.2 protocol or a simplified protocol, each with or without instruction to "put the phone down" during CPR. Data were recorded from a Laerdal Resusci Anne Skillreporter manikin. A simulated emergency medical dispatcher, contacted by cell phone, delivered standardized instructions. Primary outcome measures included chest compression rate, depth, and the proportion of compressions without error, with correct hand position, adequate depth, and total release. Time was measured in two distinct ways: time required for initiation of CPR and total amount of time hands were off the chest during CPR. Proportions were analyzed by Wilcoxon rank sum tests and time variables with ANOVA. All tests used a two-sided alpha-level of 0.05. Two hundred and fifteen subjects were randomized-107 in the "put the phone down" instruction group and 108 in the group without "put the phone down" instructions. The groups were comparable across demographic and experiential variables. The additional instruction to "put the phone down" had no effect on the proportion of compressions administered without error, with the correct depth, and with the correct hand position. Likewise, "put the phone down" did not affect the average compression depth, the average compression rate, the total hands-off-chest time, or the time to initiate chest compressions. A statistically significant, yet trivial, effect was found in the proportion of compressions with total release of the chest wall. Instructions to "put the phone down" had no effect on the quality of bystander initiated dispatcher-assisted CPR in this trial.

SHOT PUT O’BRIAN TECHNIQUE, EXTENDING THE ANALYSIS OF TECHNIQUE FROM FOUR TO SIX PHASES WITH THE DESCRIPTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zlatan Saračević

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Due to the complexity of the motion, shot put technique is described in phases for easier analysis, easer learning of technique and error correction. It is complete so that in its implementation the transition from phase to phase is not noticed. In aforementioned and described phases of O'Brian spinal shot put technique a large distance, emptiness and disconnection appear between the initial position phase and a phase of overtaking the device, which in the training methods and training technique in primary and secondary education, as well as for students and athletes beginners in shot put represents a major problem regarding connecting, training and technique advancement. Therefore, this work is aimed at facilitating the methods of training of shot put technique, extending from four to six phases, which have been described and include the complete O'Brian technique.

Tobacco consumption prevalence and pattern among residents of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

East African Journal of Public Health ... The prevalence of cigarette smoking was 7.1% and the smokers had smoked for an average of 14.3 ± 5.2 years. ... Stringent policies on smoking including delineation of smoking zone should be put in place to reduce exposure to secondhand smoke and subsequently burdens of ...

Preparedness of Response to Deadly Outbreaks: Lessons Learnt ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

outbreak of Ebola in 2014 in history involving three Mano. River States of Sierra ... (SOPs) in an Ebola setting and experiences gained during ... Ebola virus. In the WHO office compound stringent measures were put in place to restrict the transmission of the Ebola virus. Hand-shakes between staff were not allowed and staff ...

JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, N. S.

2018-04-01

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries r...

The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

2016-11-15

Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

Scenario study on the FBR deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

2000-12-01

This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

Scenarios of land cover in China

Science.gov (United States)

Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

2007-02-01

A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

2002-01-01

Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz

2006-01-01

For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10 -6 per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henrique Dias Blois

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avihay Cohen

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

Necessary, but Not Sufficient: Critiquing the Role of Information and Communication Technology in Putting Knowledge into Use

Science.gov (United States)

Sulaiman V., Rasheed; Hall, Andy; Kalaivani, N. J.; Dorai, Kumuda; Reddy, T. S. Vamsidhar

2012-01-01

Purpose: This article reviews the experience of ICT applications as a tool for putting research derived knowledge into use for innovation in South Asia. Design/methodology/approach: The article uses the contemporary understanding of communication and innovation in reviewing the experience of ICTs in putting new knowledge into use in South Asia.…

Don't Get Rode Hard and Put Away Wet

Science.gov (United States)

Galloway, Robin

2012-01-01

Back in the old days, some folks reckoned an equine was just a disposable tool to get their jobs done. They might ride a horse hard, so it was sweaty, panting, and broken down. When done they would throw it out to pasture without proper grooming. This is probably the origin of the expression to "get rode hard and put away wet." As…

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

2014-01-01

The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bækgaard, Lars

The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

Science.gov (United States)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

2016-01-01

studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

2011-09-01

It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

Future Scenarios of the South China Sea Maritime Disputes

OpenAIRE

Shee, Poon Kim

2014-01-01

The focus of this paper is to analyze three future scenarios in the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. These namely are No War Scenario, Impasse Scenario and Peace Scenario. Ultimately, the way forward towards a viable solution to resolving the South China Sea maritime disputes between China and other claimant states depends on the political wisdom, will and determination of the disputing states. Lofty nationalistic aspirations have to be tempered with a degree of flexibility and pragm...

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Corbett

2010-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO₂ emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

Scenarios and innovative systems; Scenarii et systemes innovants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2001-11-01

The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry D.; Rudisill, Marianne

2010-01-01

This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

1994-01-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

Interaction protocols for cooperative merging and lane reduction scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Semsar-Kazerooni, E.; Ploeg, J.

2015-01-01

This paper presents the interaction protocols developed for execution of two common scenarios in daily traffic using cooperative automated vehicles. The first proposed scenario addresses merging of a (semi-)automated car on a highway within a platoon of (semi-)automated vehicles. The second scenario

Putting Reusability First: A Paradigm Switch in Remote Laboratories Engineering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romain Vérot

2009-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a new devices brought online thanks to our Collaborative Remote Laboratories framework. Whereas previous devices integrated in our remote laboratory belongs to the domain of electronics, such as Vector Network Analyzers, the devices at the concern in this paper are, on one hand, an antenna workbench, and on the other, an homemade switching device, which embeds several electronic components. Because the middleware and framework for our environment were designed to be reusable, we wanted to put it to the test by integrating new and different devices in our Online Engineering catalog. After presenting the devices to be put online, we will expose the software development efforts required in regards to the reusability of the solution. As a consequence, the expose work and results tend to make the Online Engineering software architects to think reusability first, breaking with the current trends to implement Remote Labs one after the other, without much reusability, apart the capitalized experience. In this, we defend a paradigm switch in our current engineering approaches for Remote Laboratories implementations: Reusability should be thought first.

SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

The Scenario Planning Paradox

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

2017-01-01

planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

2014-01-01

This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

2010-01-01

Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

2007-01-01

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

2007-04-15

The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

Performance of some numerical Laplace inversion methods on American put option formula

Science.gov (United States)

Octaviano, I.; Yuniar, A. R.; Anisa, L.; Surjanto, S. D.; Putri, E. R. M.

2018-03-01

Numerical inversion approaches of Laplace transform is used to obtain a semianalytic solution. Some of the mathematical inversion methods such as Durbin-Crump, Widder, and Papoulis can be used to calculate American put options through the optimal exercise price in the Laplace space. The comparison of methods on some simple functions is aimed to know the accuracy and parameters which used in the calculation of American put options. The result obtained is the performance of each method regarding accuracy and computational speed. The Durbin-Crump method has an average error relative of 2.006e-004 with computational speed of 0.04871 seconds, the Widder method has an average error relative of 0.0048 with computational speed of 3.100181 seconds, and the Papoulis method has an average error relative of 9.8558e-004 with computational speed of 0.020793 seconds.

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

Integration of software for scenario exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

1999-03-01

The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

2012-01-01

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

Critical analysis of the stringent complete response in multiple myeloma: contribution of sFLC and bone marrow clonality.

Science.gov (United States)

Martínez-López, Joaquín; Paiva, Bruno; López-Anglada, Lucía; Mateos, María-Victoria; Cedena, Teresa; Vidríales, María-Belén; Sáez-Gómez, María Auxiliadora; Contreras, Teresa; Oriol, Albert; Rapado, Inmaculada; Teruel, Ana-Isabel; Cordón, Lourdes; Blanchard, María Jesús; Bengoechea, Enrique; Palomera, Luis; de Arriba, Felipe; Cueto-Felgueroso, Cecilia; Orfao, Alberto; Bladé, Joan; San Miguel, Jesús F; Lahuerta, Juan José

2015-08-13

Stringent complete response (sCR) criteria are used in multiple myeloma as a deeper response category compared with CR, but prospective validation is lacking, it is not always clear how evaluation of clonality is performed, and is it not known what the relative clinical influence is of the serum free light chain ratio (sFLCr) and bone marrow (BM) clonality to define more sCR. To clarify this controversy, we focused on 94 patients that reached CR, of which 69 (73%) also fulfilled the sCR criteria. Patients with sCR displayed slightly longer time to progression (median, 62 vs 53 months, respectively; P = .31). On analyzing this contribution to the prognosis of sFLCr or clonality, it was found that the sFLCr does not identify patients in CR at distinct risk; by contrast, low-sensitive multiparametric flow cytometry (MFC) immunophenotyping (2 colors), which is equivalent to immunohistochemistry, identifies a small number of patients (5 cases) with high residual tumor burden and dismal outcome; nevertheless, using traditional 4-color MFC, persistent clonal BM disease was detectable in 36% of patients, who, compared with minimal residual disease-negative cases, had a significantly inferior outcome. These results show that the current definition of sCR should be revised. © 2015 by The American Society of Hematology.

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

2009-10-01

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

User constraints for reliable user-defined smart home scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Le Guilly, Thibaut; Nielsen, Michael Kvist; Pedersen, Thomas

2016-01-01

Defining control scenarios in a smart home is a difficult task for end users. In particular, one concern is that user-defined scenarios could lead to unsafe or undesired state of the system. To help them explore scenario specifications, we propose in this paper a system that enables specification...

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCall, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2016-11-01

The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the future direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.

Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Giovinazzo Spers

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

1998-01-01

The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology

Introduction of developing a list of MSO generic scenarios for PHWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae Wan; Park, Jun Hyun; Bae, Hui Soo [STANDARD Testing and Engineering Ing. Ltd, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Multiple Spurious Operation(MSO) scenarios should contain scenarios threatening Post-fire safe shutdown function by MSO of Safe Shutdown Equipments(SSEs) as well as Non-SSEs. The list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) was developed by industrial survey. Although not all scenarios of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) are considered applicable to every reactor type, this list provides an input about MSO identification and treatment process. If NEI 00-01 is applied to other reactor type, analyst should review applicability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) and consider potential MSO scenarios undescribed in the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). Especially, in PHWR case, there is no list of MSO generic scenarios in Canada or internationally. There are substantial physical variations between NPPs. So some generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) would need validation. Nevertheless, industrial stakeholder have not did any MSO work until now. In this paper, results of first stage research that develop the list of MSO generic scenarios for pressurized heavy water reactor(PHWR) is introduced. According to the review results, specific review of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) is required such as how it applies to PHWR. And criteria was established for review of availability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). However there are still many tasks such as potential scenario review, risk model review and expert panel review.

An energy-economic scenario analysis of alternative fuels for personal transport using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guel, Timur; Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal; Barreto, Leonardo

2009-01-01

This paper deals with the long-term prospects of alternative fuels in global personal transport. It aims at assessing key drivers and key bottlenecks for their deployment, focusing particularly on the role of biofuels and hydrogen in meeting climate policy objectives. The analysis is pursued using the Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), a perfect foresight ''bottom-up'' model of the global energy system with a detailed representation of alternative fuel chains, linked to the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC). The analysis shows that biofuels are limited by the regional availability of low-cost biomass, but can be important for meeting mild climate policy targets. If policy-makers intend to pursue more stringent climate policy, then hydrogen becomes a competitive option. However, the analysis finds that the use of hydrogen in personal transport is restricted to very stringent climate policy, as only such policy provides enough incentive to build up the required delivery infrastructure. An analysis of costs additionally shows that ''keeping the hydrogen option open'' does not take considerable investments compared to the investment needs in the power sector within the next decades, but allows the use of hydrogen for the pursuit of stringent climate policy in the second half of the century. (author)

Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

Science.gov (United States)

Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

2014-05-01

Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

2018-04-01

Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

Flipping the Educational System: Putting Teachers at the Heart of Teaching

Science.gov (United States)

Kneyber, René

2014-01-01

This article describes an initiative led by two classroom teachers from the Netherlands to put teachers back at the centre of the educational process. The article argues that the educational system has become inverted, with those who are most influential (teachers) having the least opportunity to influence. The challenge is to "flip the…

Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

2014-01-01

The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

Putting a spin on circulating reference, or how to rediscover the scientific subject.

Science.gov (United States)

Kochan, Jeff

2015-02-01

Bruno Latour claims to have shown that a Kantian model of knowledge, which he describes as seeking to unite a disembodied transcendental subject with an inaccessible thing-in-itself, is dramatically falsified by empirical studies of science in action. Instead, Latour puts central emphasis on scientific practice, and replaces this Kantian model with a model of "circulating reference." Unfortunately, Latour's alternative schematic leaves out the scientific subject. I repair this oversight through a simple mechanical procedure. By putting a slight spin on Latour's diagrammatic representation of his theory, I discover a new space for a post-Kantian scientific subject, a subject brilliantly described by Ludwik Fleck. The neglected subjectivities and ceaseless practices of science are thus re-united. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Іванович Пушкар

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

Relative evaluation on decommissioning accident scenarios of nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Choi, Byung-Seon; Moon, Jei-Kwon; Hyun, Dong-Jun; Kim, Geun-Ho; Kim, Tae-Hyoung; Jo, Kyung-Hwa; Seo, Jae-Seok; Jeong, Seong-Young; Lee, Jung-Jun

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► This paper suggests relative importance on accident scenarios during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. ► The importance of scenarios can be performed by using AHP and Sugeno fuzzy method. ► The AHP and Sugeno fuzzy method guarantee reliability of the importance evaluation. -- Abstract: This paper suggests the evaluation method of relative importance on accident scenarios during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The evaluation method consists of AHP method and Sugeno fuzzy integral method. This method will guarantee the reliability of relative importance evaluation for decommissioning accident scenarios.

Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P

2007-01-15

The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

Importance of the High-Expression of Proline Transporter PutP to the Adaptation of Escherichia coli to High Salinity.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasaki, Hideaki; Sato, Daichi; Oshima, Akinobu

2017-01-01

　The effect of the amount of the proline transporter PutP expression on the mechanism of adaptation of E. coli cells to high salinity was analyzed. The PutP gene derived from the E. coli expression plasmid was introduced into the E. coli cell, and a high PutP expression strain was developed. At 1.2 M NaCl culture condition, the growth of normal E. coli cells was inhibited, whereas high ProP expression cells showed growth under 2.5 M NaCl conditions. The uptake of proline by E. coli as a compatible solute and substrate for metabolization was in good accordance with those seen in cell growth. These data suggested that the amount of the proline transporter PutP expression played an important role in the adaptation of E. coli cells to high saline conditions.

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

2004-01-01

This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beetle, T.M.

1976-01-01

Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

Integrated transportation scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

2014-10-15

One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

2014-01-01

Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

2010-03-01

Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

2004-10-01

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fidje, Audun

2008-07-01

This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

2017-01-01

levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...

Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freynet David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

Will the Convention on Biological Diversity put an end to biological control?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lenteren, van J.C.; Cock, M.J.W.; Brodeur, J.; Barratt, B.I.P.; Bigler, F.; Bolckmans, K.; Haas, F.; Mason, P.G.; Parra, J.R.P.

2011-01-01

Will the Convention on Biological Diversity put an end to biological control? Under the Convention on Biological Diversity countries have sovereign rights over their genetic resources. Agreements governing the access to these resources and the sharing of the benefits arising from their use need to

Some issues in the ghost condensation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anisimov, A.

2004-01-01

In the recently proposed 'ghost condensation' scenario a model of consistent infrared modification of gravity was suggested. We first review the basic ideas of this scenario. We discuss various phenomenological aspects of the ghost condensation, such as stability of the condensate, bounds on the UV cut-off scale of the corresponding effective field theory and other issues. (author)

CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

2015-01-01

The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

2001-01-01

Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

Science.gov (United States)

1999-01-01

The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulme, Mike; Dessai, Suraje

2008-01-01

Scenarios may be understood as products and/or processes. Viewing scenario exercises as productive tends to emphasize their tangibility: scenario products may acquire value unrelated to the processes of their creation. Viewing scenario exercises as procedural tends to emphasize their modes of formation: the process of constructing scenarios may have benefits irrespective of the value of ensuing products. These two framings yield different expectations about how one might evaluate the 'success' or otherwise of scenario exercises. We illustrate three approaches to evaluating the success or otherwise of scenarios using the example of the series of national UK climate scenarios published between 1991 and 2002. These are: predictive success (has the future turned out as envisaged?), decision success (have 'good' decisions subsequently been made?) and learning success (have scenarios proved engaging and enabled learning?). We reflect on the different ways the 'success' of national climate scenarios might be evaluated and on the relationship between the productive and procedural dimensions of scenario exercises.

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-01-01

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

2004-07-01

In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

Scenarios for the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

1995-06-01

This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

Feasibility study of advanced operation scenario in KSTAR using CRONOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.-S.; Na, Y.-S.; Bae, Y.S.; Jeon, Y.M.; Kim, S.H.; Artaud, J.-F.

2014-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of advanced operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the operation windows are produced to explore the KSTAR advanced scenarios in the condition of upgrading H/CD mix. Using METIS code, the rough ranges of operation condition of I_P and B_T to utilize for the development of advanced operation scenario scenario are determined. Secondly, the advanced inductive and the advanced tokamak operation scenario of KSTAR are developing with the scaling based and the physics based transport model by using CRONOS to make a suggestion to on-going KSTAR experiment. Thirdly, the dependency of the time of L-H transition on q_0 an q_m_i_n is investigated for the advanced inductive operation scenario. These reliable results can become the useful database for exploring the advanced regime of KSTAR discharges in the future. (author)

What Trajectory for Energy Transition? The Genealogy of the Energy Transition Law and its Positioning with regard to Pre-existing Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick

2014-01-01

The many lively debates that preceded -and still fuel- discussion of the 'Energy Transition and Green Growth' bill attest to the importance of that law for many French citizens and economic actors. Without going back over the debate on the feasibility or realism of the law's objectives, to which Futuribles contributed through its web site in late September, it is possible to put these matters into some perspective, as Patrick Criqui does here, by reminding us of the genealogy of the bill and the various future scenarios that were developed during the French National Debate on Energy Transition of 2013 before the bill passed into law. Criqui reminds us of the possible scenarios discussed, grouped as they were around four major energy trajectories: 'Energy-saving', 'Efficiency', 'Diversity' and 'Decarbonization'. Among these, the most important sources of divergence were over the level of reduction of energy consumption by 2050 and the relative parts to be played by nuclear power and renewable energies. Basing himself on the target figures included in the bill, Patrick Criqui identifies the image of the future towards which, on the face of it, the law points -namely, the 'Efficiency' trajectory- even if, as he very rightly emphasizes, its implementation will definitely be a dynamic affair, incorporating the various adaptations that might turn out to be necessary between now and 2050. (author)

Putts that get missed on the right: investigating lateralized attentional biases and the nature of putting errors in golf.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Ross; Turnbull, Oliver H

2010-02-01

Although the effects of lateral biases in visual attention ("pseudoneglect") have been examined in real-world settings, this phenomenon has yet to be considered within the realm of sporting performance. In the present study, we investigated the effects of pseudoneglect on putting errors in golf. Novice golfers (n = 30) performed 90 putting trials followed by a series of pseudoneglect tasks: requiring participants to bisect lines manually and with a biomechanical bisection tool. All pseudoneglect measures were performed with both the left and right hands. Results demonstrated a leftward bias for all the pseudoneglect tasks, and a rightward bias for putting error. Moreover, the results revealed that individuals who bisected lines to the left on the Bisection Tool (the typical class of pseudoneglect error for humans) with the left hand (the hand that typically produces the greatest pseudoneglect bias) displayed significantly smaller rightward putting errors. Moreover, these individuals also holed more putts. No other pseudoneglect tasks were shown to impact on putting performance. Our findings suggest that lateralized attentional biases have a significant effect on sport performance; they appear to influence a wide range of precision-based sports (e.g. shooting, archery). Findings are also discussed in terms of the processes that are likely to be involved in this effect.

Designing and Evaluating Conative Game-Based Learning Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schønau-Fog, Henrik

2014-01-01

It is an essential prerequisite to design for motivation in game-based learning applications, tools and activities. However, how is it possible to design and evaluate motivational game-based learning scenarios in a systematic process-oriented manner based on conation and player engagement? While...... of ‘continuation desire’ such as interfacing with the scenario, exploration and socialising. This paper aims to combine the concepts of Player Engagement, Conation and Continuation Desire by focusing on the conative aspects which are the essential drivers for the desire to continue any learning activity......-based learning scenarios....

Access to data and material for research: Putting empirical evidence into perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rodriguez, V.

2009-01-01

The aim of this article is to put into critical perspective the empirical findings on secrecy and withholding in research. In other words, by taking existing empirical literature into account, it is intended that a crucial question is answered: Is secrecy and withholding in research harmful or

Organizations putting in place in case of accident in a french nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noc, B.; Queniart, D.

1987-01-01

In case of accident entraining radiological consequences on or near the site of nuclear power reactor, organizations are putting in place. These organizations include as well as side of operating authority (generally Electricite de France) or public organizations including safety organizations (Service Central de Surete des Installations Nucleaires, Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire), one local organization and one centralized national organization. Informations exchange and coordination necessary between these organizations are governed by protocols. These protocols include particularly, the problems of mobilizing experts and of dealing with the saturation of normal telecommunications channels. The lessons acquired during accident simulation exercises carried out in recent years are progressively put in place in these protocols [fr

Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivtchik, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riccardo Melen

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

High pressure gas - a new approach to calorimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

The high particle collision rate and radiation levels in detectors at the new high energy high luminosity proton colliders (SSC, LHC, UNK) put stringent demands on the design of detector components. In particular the forward calorimeters will have to deal with particle fluxes in excess of 4 x 106 per sq cm per s and high radiation doses (at the MGy level)

An economically reliable scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1996-01-01

Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian G. Cullis

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future......Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects......, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types...

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

1999-01-01

The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

Putting the spiritual into practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia von Boguslawski

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to examine how Rudolf Steiner’s anthroposophical ideas were reflected and put into practice in the lives of the Finnish couple Olly (Olga Donner (1881–1956, neé Sinebrychoff and Uno Donner (1872–1958. They encountered anthroposophy in 1913 and subsequently embraced it as the guiding principle of their lives. Through a close examination of these two people we aim to shed light on how a new worldview like anthroposophy, which was gaining followers in early twentieth-century Finland, was also a manifestation of wider changes in religious culture in Europe. Our perspective could be described as biographical in the sense that it has been characterised by Simone Lässig (2008: 11 who writes that ‘the reconstruction of individual life courses helps to discover more about the context – for example, about daily rituals, pious practices, or kinship relationship’. Thus, the biographical perspective serves as a tool for grasping how something as deeply personal as an anthroposophical worldview was understood and practised, not only by Olly and Uno Donner, but also by a larger group of people who in the early twentieth century were looking for new ways to make sense of the surrounding world.

Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2008-01-01

As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

World Energy Scenarios to 2050: the Europe Region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weeda, E.

2006-01-01

The topic of this paper is an overview of the Energy Policy Scenarios to 2050 study objectives, with emphasis on The Report for the Europe Region. The study is focused on achievement of the 3A's global energy goal (Accessibility, Availability, and Acceptability) by using various policy scenarios. The heart of the study will therefore be Policy Scenarios postulated within the context of two dimensions of government policy uncertainty. One with the dimension indicating whether the world is heading towards increased globalism and co-operation between governments and/or business and industry, or more towards bilateralism and nationalism outside global governance institutions. As outcomes, there is particularly described each of the four predicted scenarios: L'Europe des Patries, Fortress Europe, Confident Europe and Trailer Europe considering five main common indicators: political context, energy security, market forces/competition, environment/climate change, and energy mix/energy technology.(author)

Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

1997-11-01

The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Hanford groundwater scenario studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

1977-05-01

This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

Postprocessing of Accidental Scenarios by Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Di Maio

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis (IDPSA of dynamic systems calls for the development of efficient methods for accidental scenarios generation. The necessary consideration of failure events timing and sequencing along the scenarios requires the number of scenarios to be generated to increase with respect to conventional PSA. Consequently, their postprocessing for retrieving safety relevant information regarding the system behavior is challenged because of the large amount of generated scenarios that makes the computational cost for scenario postprocessing enormous and the retrieved information difficult to interpret. In the context of IDPSA, the interpretation consists in the classification of the generated scenarios as safe, failed, Near Misses (NMs, and Prime Implicants (PIs. To address this issue, in this paper we propose the use of an ensemble of Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps (SSSOMs whose outcomes are combined by a locally weighted aggregation according to two strategies: a locally weighted aggregation and a decision tree based aggregation. In the former, we resort to the Local Fusion (LF principle for accounting the classification reliability of the different SSSOM classifiers, whereas in the latter we build a classification scheme to select the appropriate classifier (or ensemble of classifiers, for the type of scenario to be classified. The two strategies are applied for the postprocessing of the accidental scenarios of a dynamic U-Tube Steam Generator (UTSG.

Discussion of ISV Scenario Scope with Operating Process Element

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yun Goo; Oh, Eungse [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. ltd. Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

NUREG-0711 identifies the sampling dimension of operational conditions which includes normal operation,I and C and HSI failures, transient, and accidents. Because of practical limitation of sampling, ISV scenarios do not include every expected operational condition. To develop a scenario for the ISV, it requires much time and efforts. It takes about 1 month with 3 operating crew team for 7 scenarios for the ISV. Therefore, operational conditions are screened out for integration to scenario. TSV can be used for the evaluation of monitoring, detection, and response implementation about the inventory of information and control. However, validity of operational walkthrough for other operating process element needs to be discussed. For the situation awareness, the general acceptance check list can be derived from the result of representative scenario set of ISV. The check list may contain the number of information, type of information, level of procedure and training program. For the response planning, procedure can be used for evaluation.

Atmospheric composition calculations for evaluation of climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krol, M.S.; Woerd, H.J. van der

1994-01-01

The future radiative forcing by non-CO 2 greenhouse gases depends strongly on the behavior of the OH radical, which represents the primary sink for CH 4 , CO and H(C)FCs in the atmosphere. The authors present a simple model to describe the changes in the concentration of the main greenhouse gases. The focus is on the description of the atmospheric chemistry of OH and the important tropospheric oxidant and greenhouse gas O 3 . Changes in the equilibrium concentrations of these oxidants will change the trends in the concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially CH 4 . The model is applied to the 1992 IPCC emissions scenarios, as well as to an IMAGE 2.0 scenario, based on 'Conventional Wisdom' assumptions. The following major results are found: for the central estimate of emissions assuming no additional policies (IS92a), the concentration of CH 4 keeps rising at rates similar to those observed over the last decades; results for the other IS92 scenarios range from stabilization early in the next century (IS92d) to an ever increasing rate of accumulation of CH 4 in the atmosphere (IS92f), even though these scenarios assume no policy interventions. The IMAGE 2.0 Conventional Wisdom scenario is similar to IS92a before the year 2025; afterwards the expansion of agricultural area significantly decreases the emissions of hydrocarbons and NO x from savanna burning, not represented in the IS92 scenarios. This leads to stable levels of atmospheric CH 4 after 2025

High resolution climate scenarios for snowmelt modelling in small alpine catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Schirmer, M.; Peleg, N.; Burlando, P.; Jonas, T.

2017-12-01

Snow in the Alps is affected by climate change with regard to duration, timing and amount. This has implications with respect to important societal issues as drinking water supply or hydropower generation. In Switzerland, the latter received a lot of attention following the political decision to phase out of nuclear electricity production. An increasing number of authorization requests for small hydropower plants located in small alpine catchments was observed in the recent years. This situation generates ecological conflicts, while the expected climate change poses a threat to water availability thus putting at risk investments in such hydropower plants. Reliable high-resolution climate scenarios are thus required, which account for small-scale processes to achieve realistic predictions of snowmelt runoff and its variability in small alpine catchments. We therefore used a novel model chain by coupling a stochastic 2-dimensional weather generator (AWE-GEN-2d) with a state-of-the-art energy balance snow cover model (FSM). AWE-GEN-2d was applied to generate ensembles of climate variables at very fine temporal and spatial resolution, thus providing all climatic input variables required for the energy balance modelling. The land-surface model FSM was used to describe spatially variable snow cover accumulation and melt processes. The FSM was refined to allow applications at very high spatial resolution by specifically accounting for small-scale processes, such as a subgrid-parametrization of snow covered area or an improved representation of forest-snow processes. For the present study, the model chain was tested for current climate conditions using extensive observational dataset of different spatial and temporal coverage. Small-scale spatial processes such as elevation gradients or aspect differences in the snow distribution were evaluated using airborne LiDAR data. 40-year of monitoring data for snow water equivalent, snowmelt and snow-covered area for entire

Putting the sun to work in Sacramento

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osborn, D.E.

2000-01-01

At dawn this morning, the sun went to work for customers of the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD). The largest photovoltaic (PV) power plant in the world, adjacent to the closed nuclear power plant at Rancho Seco, generated enough electricity for over a thousand customers, rooftop solar water heaters lowered thousands of residential electric bills and rooftop PV systems turned hundreds of Sacramento homes into mini power plants. SMUD, in partnership with their customers-owners, is leading the way in putting the sun to work today. SMUD plans to have at least half of its energy come from energy efficiency, existing hydroelectric plants and renewable resources in this decade. SMUD expects investments made in solar power today to provide its customer-owners with substantial long-term energy, environmental and community benefits. This article describes some of SMUD's efforts

Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

2009-01-01

We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...... subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

Web life: Faraday's Cage Is Where You Put Schrödinger's Cat

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Faraday's Cage Is Where You Put Schrödinger's Cat (FCIWYPSC) is a blog written by Cherish Bauer-Reich, who is pursuing a PhD in geophysics at the University of Minnesota while also working part-time as a research engineer at North Dakota State University (NDSU), some 250 miles away.

HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

Project Icarus: Stakeholder Scenarios for an Interstellar Exploration Program

Science.gov (United States)

Hein, A. M.; Tziolas, A. C.; Osborne, R.

The Project Icarus Study Group's objective is to design a mainly fusion-propelled interstellar probe. The starting point are the results of the Daedalus study, which was conducted by the British Interplanetary Society during the 1970's. As the Daedalus study already indicated, interstellar probes will be the result of a large scale, decade-long development program. To sustain a program over such long periods, the commitment of key stakeholders is vital. Although previous publications identified political and societal preconditions to an interstellar exploration program, there is a lack of more specific scientific and political stakeholder scenarios. This paper develops stakeholder scenarios which allow for a more detailed sustainability assessment of future programs. For this purpose, key stakeholder groups and their needs are identified and scientific and political scenarios derived. Political scenarios are based on patterns of past space programs but unprecedented scenarios are considered as well. Although it is very difficult to sustain an interstellar exploration program, there are scenarios in which this seems to be possible, e.g. the discovery of life within the solar system and on an exoplanet, a global technology development program, and dual-use of technologies for defence and security purposes. This is a submission of the Project Icarus Study Group.

Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

2016-04-01

There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

Global warming factors modelled for 40 generic municipal waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

2009-01-01

Global warming factors (kg CO2-eq.-tonne—1 of waste) have been modelled for 40 different municipal waste management scenarios involving a variety of recycling systems (paper, glass, plastic and organics) and residual waste management by landfilling, incineration or mechanical—biological waste...... treatment. For average European waste composition most waste management scenarios provided negative global warming factors and hence overall savings in greenhouse gas emissions: Scenarios with landfilling saved 0—400, scenarios with incineration saved 200—700, and scenarios with mechanical...

ILC Operating Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

2015-06-15

The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

Launch Velocities in Successful Golf Putting: An Analytical Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John F. Mahoney

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Background: This study is concerned with the special case of a putted ball intersecting a standard golf hole at its diameter. The velocity of the ball at the initial rim of the hole is termed the launch velocity and depending upon its value the ball may either be captured or it may escape capture by jumping over the hole. The critical value of the launch velocity (V is such that lesser values result in capture while greater values produce escape. Purpose: Since the value of the V entered prominently in some theoretical studies of putting, the aim of the current study is to provide an original re-evaluation of V and to contrast our results with existing results. Method: This analytical analysis relies on trigonometry in conjunction with Newtonian mechanics and the mathematics of projectiles. The results of a recent study into the mathematics of a bouncing ball which included the notions of restitution and friction were also employed in the analysis. Results: If bouncing and slipping do not occur when the ball hits the far rim of the hole our analysis produces a value of V of 1.356 m/s. When bouncing and slipping are present we find that V is at least 1.609 m/s but increases beyond this value as slipping and friction become greater. Useful relations which relate the dynamics and geometry of the ball to V are provided. Conclusion: Since ambient conditions may influence the extent of bounce and slippage we conjecture that the value of V is not unique.

Weather scenarios for dose calculations with incomplete meteorological data. V.IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alp, E.; Lam, L.H.; Moran, M.D.

1985-09-01

This report documents a study to substantiate or modify the weather scenarios proposed by the Atomic Energy Control Board Staff Position Paper on meteorological acceptance criteria for estimating the potential radiological consequences of postulated accidents (AECB, 1982) for short-, prolonged-, and long-term releases from ground level and elevated sources. The study examined available meteorological data in Canada to determine whether the AECB-proposed scenarios are sufficiently general that they are appropriate and conservative for any potential nuclear power plant in Canada, but also realistic, i.e., not so conservative that the results of dose calculations using these scenarios would be wholly unrepresentative leading to incorrect design decisions. Three different sets of scenarios were derived using three site-specific data sets from weather stations that are representative of existing nuclear power plants in Canada. When compared, the scenarios for the three sites are not significantly different from each other, especially in terms of trends, considering that they have been based on data from widely differing meteorological regions in Canada. Conservative envelopes of the scenarios for the three sites were taken to give the recommended general weather scenario set. The recommended set was then compared with the AECB proposed scenarios. The recommended scenarios are, in general, conservative

Economic Analysis of Different Electric Vehicle Charging Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Ying, Li; Haiming, Zhou; Xiufan, Ma; Hao, Wang

2017-05-01

Influence of electric vehicles (EV) to grid cannot be ignored. Research on the economy analysis of different charging scenarios is helpful to guide the user to charge or discharge orderly. EV charging models are built such as disordered charging, valley charging, intelligent charging, and V2G (Vehicle to Grid), by which changes of charging load in different scenarios can be seen to analyze the influence to initial load curve, and comparison can be done about user’s average cost. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the electric vehicle charging behavior, cost in different charging scenarios are compared, social cost is introduced in V2G scene, and the relationship between user’s average cost and social cost is analyzed. By test, it is proved that user’s cost is the lowest in V2G scenario, and the larger the scale of vehicles is, the more the social cost can save.

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jesus Vera-Aguilera

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

2017-01-01

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

1992-01-01

The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

Putting Together a Blue Sky: Laying the Foundation for Staff Evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Searcy, Jeny

2012-01-01

Evaluation time can be like putting together a 5,000-piece jigsaw puzzle that is all sky--what, exactly, is the point? When all is said and done, one ends up with a big blue blob--nothing to show for all the effort. However, it doesn't have to be that way. Performance reviews can and should be an effective means of communication for both parties…

The Human Dimension: Putting the Person into Personalised Medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Horne, Rob

2017-04-01

Technological advances enabling us to personalise medical interventions at the biological level must be matched by parallel advances in how we support the informed choices essential to patient and public participation. We cannot take participation for granted. To be truly personalised, medicine must take account of the perceptions and capabilities that shape participation. To do this, we need a better understanding of how people perceive personalised medicine and how they judge its value and risks. To realise the promise of 4P medicine we need to personalise at the psychosocial as well as biological dimension, putting the person into personalised medicine.

Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edyta Bielinska-Dusza

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the study, principal objectives, scope of the investigation, methods employed results and principal conclusion. Uncertainty makes both theoreticians and practicioners face new tasks to fulfil. Enterprises, in order to win the competitive struggle must constantly improve their processes and structures. On the other hand, thinking in the categories of the future becomes really difficult nowadays. This creates particularly convenient conditions to apply scenario methods. In connection with the above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the essence of scenario methods employed in enterprise development. The article addresses the issue of factors conditioning proper selection of methods in the enterprise development process, the principles of scenario planning and the opportunities to apply other techniques and methods in scenario planning.

Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Retèl Valesca P

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

Sustainable energy prices and growth. Comparing macroeconomic and backcasting scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlroth, Sofia; Hoejer, Mattias

2007-01-01

How do results from the sustainability research world of backcasting relate to the macroeconomic scenarios used for policy evaluation and planning? The answer is that they do not, mostly - they come from different scientific traditions and are not used in the same contexts. Yet they often deal with the same issues. We believe that much can be gained by bringing the two systems of thinking together. This paper is a first attempt to do so, by making qualitative comparisons between different scenarios and highlighting benefits and limitations to each of them. Why are the pictures we get of the energy future so different if we use a macroeconomic model from when using a backcasting approach based on sustainable energy use? It is evident that the methods for producing those two kinds of scenarios differ a lot, but the main reason behind the different results are found in the starting points rather than in the methods. Baseline assumptions are quite different, as well as the interpretations and importance attached to signals about the future. In this paper, it is discussed how those two types of scenarios differ and how they approach issues such as energy prices and growth. The discussion is based on a comparison between Swedish economic and sustainability scenarios. The economic scenarios aim at being forecasts of the future and are used as decision support for long-term policies. But are the assumptions in the economic scenarios reasonable? The sustainability scenarios are explicitly normative backcasting scenarios. They do not take the issue of growth and consumption fully into account. Could they be developed in this respect? The comparison between the scenarios is also used to look closer at the issue of energy prices in a society with sustainable energy use. One of the questions raised is if a low energy society calls for high energy prices. Moreover, the effects of tradable permits versus energy taxes is analysed in the context of how energy use could be kept low

Full steady state LH scenarios in Tore Supra

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazarian-Vibert, F.; Litaudon, X.; Arslanbekov, R.; Hoang, G.T.; Moreau, D.; Peysson, Y.

1995-01-01

Lower Hybrid discharge have been realised in Tore Supra using feed-back control of the primary circuit voltage such that the loop voltage was maintained exactly to zero near the plasma surface. This new scenario allows the plasma current to float and quickly reach an equilibrium value determined by the current drive efficiency and Lower Hybrid power. Recent experimental results show that, with the new constant flux scenario the coupled plasma and primary currents reach a steady state in less than 10 s which is a good agreement with theoretical expectations. A complete analysis of this scenario is presented. (authors). 8 refs., 3 figs

A critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2011-01-01

The author proposes a rather radical critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario which is mainly based on the development of the use of solid and liquid biomass produced by forests and farms, and of some marginal resources like wood and urban wastes. He shows that wood resources in France are not sufficient as part of the wood is used for construction. A further exploitation of wood would lead to a dramatic increase of costs. He shows that the scenario overestimates the available wood in France, and moreover, that the promoters of the scenario overstep the physical, biological, social and economic limits of the real world of agriculture

Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

Science.gov (United States)

Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

Premonitory Urge for Tics Scale (PUTS): replication and extension of psychometric properties in youth with chronic tic disorders (CTDs).

Science.gov (United States)

Raines, Jeremy M; Edwards, Kimberly R; Sherman, Martin F; Higginson, Christopher I; Winnick, Joel B; Navin, Kelly; Gettings, Julie M; Conteh, Fatmata; Bennett, Shannon M; Specht, Matthew W

2018-04-01

Individuals with chronic tic disorders (CTDs) frequently describe aversive subjective sensory sensations that precede their tics. The first aim of the present study was to explore the psychometric properties of a standardized self-report measure to assess premonitory urges in CTDs, The Premonitory Urge for Tics Scale (PUTS), by replicating the analyses of Woods et al. (J Dev Behav Pediatr 26:397-403, 2005) using a sample twice the size of theirs. The second aim was to conduct an exploratory factor analysis of the PUTS. Eighty-four youth with CTDs, recruited from a pediatric OCD and tic specialty clinic, completed the PUTS while their caregivers completed The Parent Tic Questionnaire (PTQ) and a demographic measure. Consistent with (Woods et al. J Dev Behav Pediatr 26:397-403, 2005), the PUTS was found to be internally consistent (α = 0.82) and significantly correlated with overall tic severity as measured by the PTQ (r = 0.24, p tics than the frequency or intensity of tics.

Energy perspectives 2035 - Volume 2, scenarios I to IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, A.

2007-01-01

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) takes a look at the four scenarios concerning future developments in Swiss energy supply policy. The four complex scenarios include variants entitled 'business as usual', 'increased co-operation', 'new priorities' and 'on the way to a 2000-Watt society'. These scenarios deal with the development of energy demand and electricity offerings in Switzerland for the period 1990 to 2035. They are reviewed in the light of various sensitivity factors. These sensitivity factors include a high GDP, oil prices of 50 US-dollars per barrel and a warmer climate. The report presents the results of the model calculations made. First of all, the report takes a look at the motivation and aims behind the work and discusses the modelling methods, system limits and conventions used and the possibilities offered by the perspectives as well as the limits encountered. The four scenarios are then presented and discussed in detail. Implementation variants in the private, services, industrial and traffic sectors are discussed and various electricity supply variants are presented, as are the associated environmental issues involved. The scenarios are compared with each other and pricing and security of supply issues are discussed. Finally, a short synopsis of the scenarios is presented and decision criteria are discussed as are implementation instruments. Ethical dilemmas and the risks involved are noted

Discovering the new RCP and SSP scenarios used by the IPCC

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report presents the scenarios defined by a group of experts within the perspective of the 5. IPCC report. This four reference scenarios named RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) have been designed to foresee the evolution of concentrations of greenhouse gases, of ozone, and of aerosol precursors for the 21. century and beyond. The report also evokes the evolution of simulations used by climatologists, and the introduction of a representation of social and economic evolutions (definition of five families of scenario-types: sustainability, middle of the road, fragmentation, inequality, and conventional development). The consistency of these RCP scenarios and social-economical scenarios is outlined

Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

Science.gov (United States)

Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

2017-01-01

The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

Electric Vehicles Scenarios and a Roadmap for India

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Pathak, Minal

This report is an attempt to look at the present EV landscape, recent developments in EV markets and the emergent EV technology research. The report analyses future scenarios of passenger transport in India with a specific focus on the role of EVs. The scenarios span from 2010 to 2035 and are ana...

Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

2008-02-15

The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim

2007-01-01

Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

2008-11-01

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

Complex accident scenarios modelled and analysed by Stochastic Petri Nets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nývlt, Ondřej; Haugen, Stein; Ferkl, Lukáš

2015-01-01

This paper is focused on the usage of Petri nets for an effective modelling and simulation of complicated accident scenarios, where an order of events can vary and some events may occur anywhere in an event chain. These cases are hardly manageable by traditional methods as event trees – e.g. one pivotal event must be often inserted several times into one branch of the tree. Our approach is based on Stochastic Petri Nets with Predicates and Assertions and on an idea, which comes from the area of Programmable Logic Controllers: an accidental scenario is described as a net of interconnected blocks, which represent parts of the scenario. So the scenario is firstly divided into parts, which are then modelled by Petri nets. Every block can be easily interconnected with other blocks by input/output variables to create complex ones. In the presented approach, every event or a part of a scenario is modelled only once, independently on a number of its occurrences in the scenario. The final model is much more transparent then the corresponding event tree. The method is shown in two case studies, where the advanced one contains a dynamic behavior. - Highlights: • Event & Fault trees have problems with scenarios where an order of events can vary. • Paper presents a method for modelling and analysis of dynamic accident scenarios. • The presented method is based on Petri nets. • The proposed method solves mentioned problems of traditional approaches. • The method is shown in two case studies: simple and advanced (with dynamic behavior)

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario for France at the 2020 vista; Un scenario energetique tendanciel pour la France a l'horizon 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Giraud, P.N

2000-01-01

A 'business-as-usual' energy scenario is the most probable scenario where the energy demand follows the trends of the past and where no new energy policy is implemented. This work is a complement to the three contrasted energy scenarios built in 1998 by the 'Energy 2010-2020' prospective group of the French general commission of national development. The scenario built in this study is only a reference which allows the measure the efforts made to reach political goals. The main conclusion of this scenario is the increase of the CO{sub 2} emissions under the double effect of the economic growth and of the cessation of the nuclear program which becomes non-competitive with respect to the gas prices and actualization rates retained in the scenario. The main constraint of the energy future is incontestably the necessary fight against the greenhouse effect. (J.S.)

Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-15

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

2014-04-01

Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

Case Study: Puttin' on the Ritz: How to Put Science into Cases

Science.gov (United States)

Herreid, Clyde Freeman

2017-01-01

There are multiple ways to put science into a case. This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue discusses different ways of presenting science in case studies.

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

Study of hazardous scenario in service stations. Final report; Etude de scenarios dangereux en stations-service. Rapport final

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-10-01

The industrial environment group is working at the elaboration of prescriptions applicable to classed installations submitted to declaration (heading 1434: fill in and distribution of inflammable liquids). In this context the group asked the INERIS to realize a list of possible accidents scenario, to quantify the consequences in terms of safety distances, to identify the most pertinent scenario and to examine the particular cases which allow to reduce the safety distances especially the implementing of a fire break wall of two hours. (A.L.B.)

Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2018-03-01

An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

1998-01-01

Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

1998-07-01

Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

Observations and the Wolf-Rayet evolutionary scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firmani, C.

1982-01-01

Results of a statistical analysis of massive stars and of WR stars show general agreement with the scenario that identifies the majority of the WR stars with the He-burning evolutionary phases. The duplicity, the morphological properties and the galactic distribution of the WR stars are valuable pieces of evidence that suggest correlations between the different WR types and the ''channels'' defined in the scenario. A rough analysis of the ''traffic through each channel'' is attempted. (Auth.)

Fall scenarios In causing older women's hip fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Hägvide, Mona-Lisa; Larsson, Tore J; Borell, Lena

2013-01-01

Falls and fall-related injuries among older women constitute a major public health problem with huge costs for the society and personal suffering. The aim of this study was to describe and illustrate how a number of circumstances, conceptualized as a scenario, that were related to the individual, the environment, and the ongoing occupation contributed to a fall that led to a hip fracture among women. The sample included 48 women over 55 years old. Interviews were conducted during home visits and the analysis provided a descriptive picture of circumstances in the shape of a scenario related to the risk of falling. A number of scenarios were developed based on the data and named to provide an understanding of the interplay between the individual, the environment, and the ongoing occupation at the time of the fall. By applying the concept of a scenario, occupational therapists can increase the awareness of fall risks among older people, and are relevant also for interior designers, architects, and town planners to consider when designing the local environment as well as furniture and other objects.

Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE