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Sample records for scenario puts stringent

  1. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  2. Putting Flow–Ecology Relationships into Practice: A Decision-Support System to Assess Fish Community Response to Water-Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Cartwright

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  3. Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  4. Flight Hardware Packaging Design for Stringent EMC Radiated Emission Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lortz, Charlene L.; Huang, Chi-Chien N.; Ravich, Joshua A.; Steiner, Carl N.

    2013-01-01

    This packaging design approach can help heritage hardware meet a flight project's stringent EMC radiated emissions requirement. The approach requires only minor modifications to a hardware's chassis and mainly concentrates on its connector interfaces. The solution is to raise the surface area where the connector is mounted by a few millimeters using a pedestal, and then wrapping with conductive tape from the cable backshell down to the surface-mounted connector. This design approach has been applied to JPL flight project subsystems. The EMC radiated emissions requirements for flight projects can vary from benign to mission critical. If the project's EMC requirements are stringent, the best approach to meet EMC requirements would be to design an EMC control program for the project early on and implement EMC design techniques starting with the circuit board layout. This is the ideal scenario for hardware that is built from scratch. Implementation of EMC radiated emissions mitigation techniques can mature as the design progresses, with minimal impact to the design cycle. The real challenge exists for hardware that is planned to be flown following a built-to-print approach, in which heritage hardware from a past project with a different set of requirements is expected to perform satisfactorily for a new project. With acceptance of heritage, the design would already be established (circuit board layout and components have already been pre-determined), and hence any radiated emissions mitigation techniques would only be applicable at the packaging level. The key is to take a heritage design with its known radiated emissions spectrum and repackage, or modify its chassis design so that it would have a better chance of meeting the new project s radiated emissions requirements.

  5. Circuitry linking the Csr and stringent response global regulatory systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Adrianne N; Patterson-Fortin, Laura M; Vakulskas, Christopher A; Mercante, Jeffrey W; Potrykus, Katarzyna; Vinella, Daniel; Camacho, Martha I; Fields, Joshua A; Thompson, Stuart A; Georgellis, Dimitris; Cashel, Michael; Babitzke, Paul; Romeo, Tony

    2011-06-01

    CsrA protein regulates important cellular processes by binding to target mRNAs and altering their translation and/or stability. In Escherichia coli, CsrA binds to sRNAs, CsrB and CsrC, which sequester CsrA and antagonize its activity. Here, mRNAs for relA, spoT and dksA of the stringent response system were found among 721 different transcripts that copurified with CsrA. Many of the transcripts that copurified with CsrA were previously determined to respond to ppGpp and/or DksA. We examined multiple regulatory interactions between the Csr and stringent response systems. Most importantly, DksA and ppGpp robustly activated csrB/C transcription (10-fold), while they modestly activated csrA expression. We propose that CsrA-mediated regulation is relieved during the stringent response. Gel shift assays confirmed high affinity binding of CsrA to relA mRNA leader and weaker interactions with dksA and spoT. Reporter fusions, qRT-PCR and immunoblotting showed that CsrA repressed relA expression, and (p)ppGpp accumulation during stringent response was enhanced in a csrA mutant. CsrA had modest to negligible effects on dksA and spoT expression. Transcription of dksA was negatively autoregulated via a feedback loop that tended to mask CsrA effects. We propose that the Csr system fine-tunes the stringent response and discuss biological implications of the composite circuitry. © Published 2011. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  6. Is ionizing radiation regulated more stringently than chemical carcinogens

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.; Pack, S.R.; Hattemer-Frey, H.A.

    1989-01-01

    It is widely believed that United States government agencies regulate exposure to ionizing radiation more stringently than exposure to chemical carcinogens. It is difficult to verify this perception, however, because chemical carcinogens and ionizing radiation are regulated using vastly different strategies. Chemical carcinogens are generally regulated individually. Regulators consider the risk of exposure to one chemical rather than the cumulative radiation exposure from all sources. Moreover, standards for chemical carcinogens are generally set in terms of quantities released or resultant environmental concentrations, while standards for ionizing radiation are set in terms of dose to the human body. Since chemicals and ionizing radiation cannot be compared on the basis of equal dose to the exposed individual, standards regulating chemicals and ionizing radiation cannot be compared directly. It is feasible, however, to compare the two sets of standards on the basis of equal risk to the exposed individual, assuming that standards for chemicals and ionizing radiation are equivalent if estimated risk levels are equitable. This paper compares risk levels associated with current standards for ionizing radiation and chemical carcinogens. The authors do not attempt to determine whether either type of risk is regulated too stringently or not stringently enough but endeavor only to ascertain if ionizing radiation is actually regulated more strictly than chemical carcinogens

  7. Comparison of urine iodine/creatinine ratio between patients following stringent and less stringent low iodine diet for radioiodine remnant ablation of thyroid cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roh, Jee Ho; Kim, Byung Il; Ha, Ji Su; Chang, Sei Joong; Shin, Hye Young; Choi, Joon Hyuk; Kim, Do Min; Kim, Chong Soon

    2006-01-01

    A low iodine diet (LID) for 1 ∼ 2 weeks is recommended for patients who undergoing radioiodine remnant ablation. However, the LID educations for patients are different among centers because there is no concrete recommendation for protocol of LID. In this investigation, we compared two representative types of LID protocols performed in several centers in Korea using urine iodine to creatinine tatio (urine I/Cr). From 2006, April to June, patients referred to our center for radioiodine remnant ablation of thyroid cancer from several local hospitals which had different LID protocols were included. We divided into two groups, stringent LID for 1 week and less stringent LID for 2 weeks, then measured their urine I/Cr ratio with spot urine when patients were admitted to the hospital. Total 27 patients were included in this investigation (M:F = 1:26; 13 in one-week stringent LID; 14 in two-week less stringent LID). Average of urine I/Cr ratio was 127.87 ± 78.52 μ g/g in stringent LID for 1 week, and 289.75 ± 188.24 μ g/g in less stringent LID for 2 weeks. It was significantly lower in stringent LID for 1 week group (ρ = 0.008). The number of patients whose urine I/Cr ratios were below 100 μ g/g was 6 of 13 in stringent LID for 1 week group, and 3 of 14 in less stringent LID for 2 weeks group. Stringent LID for 1 week resulted in better urinary I/Cr ratio in our investigation compared with the other protocol. However it still resulted in plenty of inadequate range of I/Cr ratio, so more stringent protocol such as stringent LID for 2 weeks is expected more desirable

  8. Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Frances C.; Diaz, Delavane B.

    2015-02-01

    Integrated assessment models compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth rates in the DICE model through two pathways, total factor productivity growth and capital depreciation. This damage specification, even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, substantially slows GDP growth in poor regions but has more modest effects in rich countries. Optimal climate policy in this model stabilizes global temperature change below 2 °C by eliminating emissions in the near future and implies a social cost of carbon several times larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of climate change impacts on economic growth, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages and GDP are three critical uncertainties requiring further research. In particular, optimal mitigation rates are much lower if countries become less sensitive to climate change impacts as they develop, making this a major source of uncertainty and an important subject for future research.

  9. Stringent Mitigation Policy Implied By Temperature Impacts on Economic Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F.; Turner, D.

    2014-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) compare the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation with damages from climate change in order to evaluate the social welfare implications of climate policy proposals and inform optimal emissions reduction trajectories. However, these models have been criticized for lacking a strong empirical basis for their damage functions, which do little to alter assumptions of sustained GDP growth, even under extreme temperature scenarios. We implement empirical estimates of temperature effects on GDP growth-rates in the Dynamic Integrated Climate and Economy (DICE) model via two pathways, total factor productivity (TFP) growth and capital depreciation. Even under optimistic adaptation assumptions, this damage specification implies that optimal climate policy involves the elimination of emissions in the near future, the stabilization of global temperature change below 2°C, and a social cost of carbon (SCC) an order of magnitude larger than previous estimates. A sensitivity analysis shows that the magnitude of growth effects, the rate of adaptation, and the dynamic interaction between damages from warming and GDP are three critical uncertainties and an important focus for future research.

  10. Panorama 2014 - The energy scenarios put forward by the Ancre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hache, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    The Alliance nationale de coordination de la recherche pour l'energie (Ancre), France's National Alliance for Energy Research Coordination which is made up of all of the country's public bodies involved in energy, wanted to contribute to the discussions that began within the framework of the debate initiated in autumn 2012 and as part of preparations for the law on energy transition. It wanted to do this by shedding some light (sharing its own expertise in research, technological development and innovation) on the various barriers (mainly of a technological nature) that will need to be overcome in order to reach the ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. One of the aims was to assess the conditions required and the impacts of the various possible pathways for reaching this target. This approach sets out to shed light on options on the basis of efficiency criteria, both in terms of the energy policy and in terms of France's current economic and industrial situation. (author)

  11. Put order picking system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurđević Dragan D.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays the warehouse is very important logistic component of the supply chain, where order-picking systems have important role. Due to the significant impact on logistics performance permanent goals are to increase efficiency and reduce the cost of these systems. To achieve these goals, there are different researches, and their success is determined by the achieved performances. Performances order picking process are dependent on the applied technology concepts of order-picking system, as well as the ways in which it is organized and managed. In addition to the standard conceptions (the man to good and good to the man is one of the newer, so-called. 'put' system - the inverse order-picking. The aim of this paper is to describe this concept, point out its core strengths and weaknesses and provide a basis that may be of importance in the development of warehouse technological solutions and application of this order-picking systems concept.

  12. Putting politics first.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Jacob S

    2008-01-01

    The greatest lesson of the failure of comprehensive health reform in the early 1990s is that politics comes first. Even the best-laid policy plans are worthless if they lack the political support to pass. Putting politics first means avoiding the overarching mistake of the Clinton reformers: envisioning a grand policy compromise rather than hammering out a real political compromise. It also means addressing the inevitable fears of those who believe that they are well protected by our eroding employment-based system. And it means formulating political strategies that are premised on the contemporary realities of the hyperpolarized U.S. political environment, rather than wistfully recalled images of the bipartisan politics of old.

  13. Putting instruction sequences into effect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergstra, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    An attempt is made to define the concept of execution of an instruction sequence. It is found to be a special case of directly putting into effect of an instruction sequence. Directly putting into effect of an instruction sequences comprises interpretation as well as execution. Directly putting into

  14. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  15. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  16. Electricity versus hydrogen for passenger cars under stringent climate change control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rösler, H.; van der Zwaan, B.; Keppo, I.; Bruggink, J.

    2014-01-01

    In this article we analyze how passenger car transportation in Europe may change this century under permanent high oil prices and stringent climate control policy. We focus on electricity and hydrogen as principal candidate energy carriers, because these two options are increasingly believed to

  17. Structural characterization of the stringent response related exopolyphosphatase/guanosine pentaphosphate phosphohydrolase protein family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Ole; Laurberg, Martin; Liljas, Anders

    2004-01-01

    Exopolyphosphatase/guanosine pentaphosphate phosphohydrolase (PPX/GPPA) enzymes play central roles in the bacterial stringent response induced by starvation. The high-resolution crystal structure of the putative Aquifex aeolicus PPX/GPPA phosphatase from the actin-like ATPase domain superfamily has...

  18. Convergent Validity of the PUTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Cathérine Brandt

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Premonitory urges are a cardinal feature in Gilles de la Tourette syndrome. Severity of premonitory urges can be assessed with the Premonitory Urge for Tic Disorders Scale (PUTS. However, convergent validity of the measure has been difficult to assess due to the lack of other urge measures.We investigated the relationship between average real-time urge intensity assessed by an in-house developed real-time urge monitor, measuring urge intensity continuously for 5mins on a visual analogue scale, and general urge intensity assessed by the PUTS in 22 adult Tourette patients (mean age 29.8+/- 10.3; 19 male. Additionally, underlying factors of premonitory urges assessed by the PUTS were investigated in the adult sample using factor analysis and were replicated in 40 children and adolescents diagnosed with Tourette syndrome (mean age 12.05 +/- 2.83 SD, 31 male.Cronbach’s alpha for the PUTS10 was acceptable (α = .79 in the adult sample. Convergent validity between average real-time urge intensity scores (as assessed with the real-time urge monitor and the 10-item version of the PUTS (r = .64 and the 9-item version of the PUTS (r = .66 was good. A factor analysis including the 10 items of the PUTS and average real-time urge intensity scores revealed three factors. One factor included the average real-time urge intensity score and appeared to measure urge intensity, while the other two factors can be assumed to reflect the (sensory quality of urges and subjective control, respectively. The factor structure of the 10 PUTS items alone was replicated in a sample of children and adolescents.The results indicate that convergent validity between the PUTS and the real-time urge assessment monitor is good. Furthermore, the results suggest that the PUTS might assess more than one dimension of urges and it may be worthwhile developing different sub-scales of the PUTS assessing premonitory urges in terms of intensity and quality, as well as subjectively

  19. Direct-to-physician and direct-to-consumer advertising: Time to have stringent regulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, S; Gowri, S; Tyagi, V; Kohli, S; Jain, R; Kapil, P; Bhardwaj, A

    2015-01-01

    Direct to physician advertisements and direct to consumer advertisement (DTCA) is a well-known marketing strategy of pharmaceutical companies. Studies from the West and also from the Indian sub-continent revealed several lacunae in such advertisements. The present study was carried out to understand the international and national scenario regarding the lacunae in drug advertisements and the opinion of both physicians and patients regarding DTCA. The present study was conducted after obtaining approval from the institutional ethics committee. Warning letters (WLs) issued to pharmaceutical companies by United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) and Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) due to discrepancies in the advertisements were analyzed for reasons that were grouped into one of the following categories: overstatement of efficacy; unapproved indication; lack of adequate directions to use; omission of adverse effects; misleading claims; advertisement made for an unapproved drug (investigational new product). Drug advertisements in Current Index of Medical Specialties (CIMS) April-July 2014 issue was also analyzed for lacunae depending on categories as mentioned above. Physicians and patients in a tertiary care medical college and hospital were administered a validated questionnaire exploring their views about crucial aspects of DTCA. Descriptive statistics was used for each of the categories. A total of 93 WLs issued by USFDA and 36 by TGA were assessed. Majority of the WLs by USFDA were issued for omission of adverse effects (61/93, 65.6%) followed by misleading claims (54/93, 58.1%). Similarly, WLs by TGA were also mainly issued for the presence of misleading claims (35/36, 97.2%) followed by overstatement of efficacy (26/36, 72.2%) and CIMS evaluation had revealed that 78/92 (84.8%) advertisements omitted adverse effects, 20/92 (21.7%) had misleading claims, 9/92 (9.8%) had unapproved indications and 7/92 (7.6%) overstated the efficacy. With regard to

  20. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  1. Putting Emotional Intelligence To Work

    CERN Document Server

    Ryback, David

    2012-01-01

    Putting Emotional Intelligence to Work offers a new paradigm of communication for the 21st-century workplace. Beginning with the thoughts of communication pioneer Carl Rogers, this book covers the origins and history of emotional intelligence, why it is essential at this point in the changing marketplace, how to delegate and negotiate more effectively, and how to change yourself to become a more effective player. An EQ (Emotional Quotient) survey helps you determine where you are on the scale of executive intelligence. Putting Emotional Intelligence to Work leaves you with a greater understand

  2. Heating being put into service

    CERN Multimedia

    2016-01-01

    The SMB-SE group would like to inform you that, the central heating will start this year, on Monday 3 October 2016, and will be progressively and depending on the weather forecast put into service throughout. All buildings will have heating within the following few days. Thank you for your understanding. The CERN heating team SMB-SE

  3. ICRP putting wealth before health

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, P.

    1990-01-01

    Reductions in recommended dose limits for radiation workers set by the International Commission for Radiological Protection do not go far enough. The ICRP has put industry profitability before worker safety, and their recommendations should not be the basis for UK or European law. (author)

  4. Orphan Toxin OrtT (YdcX) of Escherichia coli Reduces Growth during the Stringent Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-29

    antimicrobials trimethoprim and sulfamethoxazole; these antimicrobials induce the stringent response by inhibiting tetrahydrofolate synthesis...in the presence of both antimicrobials trimethoprim and sulfamethoxazole; these antimicrobials induce the stringent response by inhibiting...level [20]. Toxins 2015, 7 301 Despite these difficulties in determining physiological roles, TA systems are clearly phage inhibition systems

  5. The Stringent Response Induced by Phosphate Limitation Promotes Purine Salvage in Agrobacterium fabrum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapragasam, Smitha; Deochand, Dinesh K; Meariman, Jacob K; Grove, Anne

    2017-10-31

    Agrobacterium fabrum induces tumor growth in susceptible plant species. The upregulation of virulence genes that occurs when the bacterium senses plant-derived compounds is enhanced by acidic pH and limiting inorganic phosphate. Nutrient starvation may also trigger the stringent response, and purine salvage is among the pathways expected to be favored under such conditions. We show here that phosphate limitation induces the stringent response, as evidenced by production of (p)ppGpp, and that the xdhCSML operon encoding the purine salvage enzyme xanthine dehydrogenase is upregulated ∼15-fold. The xdhCSML operon is under control of the TetR family transcription factor XdhR; direct binding of ppGpp to XdhR attenuates DNA binding, and the enhanced xdhCSML expression correlates with increased cellular levels of (p)ppGpp. Xanthine dehydrogenase may also divert purines away from salvage pathways to form urate, the ligand for the transcription factor PecS, which in the plant pathogen Dickeya dadantii is a key regulator of virulence gene expression. However, urate levels remain low under conditions that produce increased levels of xdhCSML expression, and neither acidic pH nor limiting phosphate results in induction of genes under control of PecS. Instead, expression of such genes is induced only by externally supplemented urate. Taken together, our data indicate that purine salvage is favored during the stringent response induced by phosphate starvation, suggesting that control of this pathway may constitute a novel approach to modulating virulence. Because bacterial purine catabolism appears to be unaffected, as evidenced by the absence of urate accumulation, we further propose that the PecS regulon is induced by only host-derived urate.

  6. Stringent or nonstringent complete remission and prognosis in acute myeloid leukemia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øvlisen, Andreas K; Oest, Anders; Bendtsen, Mette D

    2018-01-01

    Stringent complete remission (sCR) of acute myeloid leukemia is defined as normal hematopoiesis after therapy. Less sCR, including non-sCR, was introduced as insufficient blood platelet, neutrophil, or erythrocyte recovery. These latter characteristics were defined retrospectively as postremission...... transfusion dependency and were suggested to be of prognostic value. In the present report, we evaluated the prognostic impact of achieving sCR and non-sCR in the Danish National Acute Leukaemia Registry, including 769 patients registered with classical CR (ie,

  7. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  8. Augmenting the Genetic Toolbox for Sulfolobus islandicus with a Stringent Positive Selectable Marker for Agmatine Prototrophy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Tara E.; Krause, David J.

    2013-01-01

    Sulfolobus species have become the model organisms for studying the unique biology of the crenarchaeal division of the archaeal domain. In particular, Sulfolobus islandicus provides a powerful opportunity to explore natural variation via experimental functional genomics. To support these efforts, we further expanded genetic tools for S. islandicus by developing a stringent positive selection for agmatine prototrophs in strains in which the argD gene, encoding arginine decarboxylase, has been deleted. Strains with deletions in argD were shown to be auxotrophic for agmatine even in nutrient-rich medium, but growth could be restored by either supplementation of exogenous agmatine or reintroduction of a functional copy of the argD gene from S. solfataricus P2 into the ΔargD host. Using this stringent selection, a robust targeted gene knockout system was established via an improved next generation of the MID (marker insertion and unmarked target gene deletion) method. Application of this novel system was validated by targeted knockout of the upsEF genes involved in UV-inducible cell aggregation formation. PMID:23835176

  9. Ten Year Study of the Stringently Defined Otitis Prone Child in Rochester, NY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichichero, Michael E.

    2016-01-01

    This review summarizes a prospective, longitudinal 10-year study in Rochester NY with virtually every clinically diagnosed acute otitis media (AOM) confirmed by bacterial culture of middle ear fluid. Children experiencing 3 episodes within 6 months or 4 episodes in 12 months were considered stringently-defined otitis prone (sOP). We found stringent diagnosis compared with clinical diagnosis reduced the frequency of children meeting the OP definition from 27% to 6% resulting in 14.8% and 2.4% receiving tympanostomy tubes, respectively. Significantly more often RSV infection led to AOM in sOP than non-otitis prone (NOP) children that correlated with diminished total RSV-specific serum IgG. sOP children produced low levels of antibody to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae candidate vaccine protein antigens and to routine pediatric vaccines. sOP children generated significantly fewer memory B cells, functional and memory T cells to otopathogens following NP colonization and AOM than NOP children and they had defects in antigen presenting cells. PMID:27273691

  10. Putting Portugal on the Map

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Ferrão

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues the need to “put Portugal on the map” in a double sense: in a prospective way, in order to place the country on the required map(s, something which entails strategic vision and capacity for action; and in an analytical way – to enable us to understand Portugal from the map(s it is part of, which presupposes a capacity to analyse and understand the current state of affairs. By drawing inspiration from the polymorphic vision on the spatialities of contemporary societies and economies defended by Jessop, Brenner and Jones (2008, we propose the creation of a unifying reference framework to “put Portugal on the map”, using a combination of five elements: territory as a geographic location; territory as a unit of reference of the nation-state; places; geographic scales; and networks. The polymorphic nature of the spatialities that characterize, or should characterize, Portugal’s place in the world reflects several, and even contradictory, ethical values, interests, preferences, and options. Accordingly, the supported polymorphic spatialities ought to stir up controversy based on knowledge and arguments that are solid from a theoretical and empirical stance, and should make explicit the objectives and values they are based on.

  11. Stringent limits on the ionized mass loss from A and F dwarfs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, A.; Veale, A.; Judge, P.; Bookbinder, J.A.; Hubeny, I.

    1990-01-01

    Following the suggestion of Willson et al. (1987) that A- and F-type main-sequence stars might undergo significant mass loss due to pulsationally driven winds, upper limits to the ionized mass loss from A and F dwarfs have been obtained using VLA observations. These stringent upper limits show that the level of ionized mass loss would have at most only a small effect on stellar evolution. Radiative-equilibrium atmospheric and wind models for early A dwarfs indicate that it is highly likely that a wind flowing from such stars would be significantly ionized. In addition, late A and early F dwarfs exhibit chromospheric emission indicative of significant nonradiative heating. The present mass-loss limits are thus representative of the total mass-loss rates for these stars. It is concluded that A and F dwarfs are not losing sufficient mass to cause A dwarfs to evolve into G dwarfs. 24 refs

  12. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

  13. Achieving stringent climate targets. An analysis of the role of transport and variable renewable energies using energy-economy-climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pietzcker, Robert Carl

    2014-07-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is threatening the welfare of mankind. Accordingly, policy makers have repeatedly stated the goal of slowing climate change and limiting the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2 C above pre-industrial times (the so-called ''two degree target''). Stabilizing the temperature requires drastic reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to nearly zero. As the global system of energy supply currently relies on fossil fuels, reducing GHG emissions can only be achieved through a full-scale transformation of the energy system. This thesis investigates the economic requirements and implications of different scenarios that achieve stringent climate mitigation targets. It starts with the analysis of characteristic decarbonization patterns and identifies two particularly relevant aspects of mitigation scenarios: deployment of variable renewable energies (VRE) and decarbonization of the transport sector. After investigating these fields in detail, we turned towards one of the most relevant questions for policy makers and analyzed the trade-off between the stringency of a climate target and its economic requirements and implications. All analyses are based on the improvement, application, comparison, and discussion of large-scale IAMs. The novel ''mitigation share'' metric allowed us to identify the relevance of specific technology groups for mitigation and to improve our understanding of the decarbonization patterns of different energy subsectors. It turned out that the power sector is decarbonized first and reaches lowest emissions, while the transport sector is slowest to decarbonize. For the power sector, non-biomass renewable energies contribute most to emission reductions, while the transport sector strongly relies on liquid fuels and therefore requires biomass in combination with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to reduce emissions. An in-depth investigation of the solar power

  14. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  15. Air Quality and Health Benefits of China's Recent Stringent Environmental Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Xue, T.; Zhang, Q.; Geng, G.; He, K.

    2016-12-01

    Aggressive emission control measures were taken by China's central and local governments after the promulgation of the "Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan" in 2013. We evaluated the air quality and health benefits of this ever most stringent air pollution control policy during 2013-2015 by utilizing a two-stage data fusion model and newly-developed cause-specific integrated exposure-response functions (IER) developed for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD). The two-stage data fusion model predicts spatiotemporal continuous PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) concentrations by integrating satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements, PM2.5 concentrations from measurement and air quality model, and other ancillary information. During the years of analysis, PM2.5 concentration dropped significantly on national average and over heavily polluted regions as identified by Mann-Kendall analysis. The national PM2.5-attributable mortality decreased by 72.8 (95% CI: 59.4, 85.2) thousand (6%) from 1.23 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.39) million in 2013 to 1.15 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.31) million in 2015 due to considerable reduction (i.e. 18%) of population-weighted PM2.5 from 61.4 to 50.5 µg/m3. Meteorological variations between 2013 and 2015 were estimated to raise the PM2.5 levels by 0.24 µg/m3 and national mortality by 2.1 (95% CI: 1.6, 2.6) thousand through sensitivity tests, which implies the dominant role of anthropogenic impacts on PM2.5 abatement and attributable mortality reduction. Our study affirms the effectiveness of China's recent air quality policy, however, due to the possible supralinear shape of C-R functions, health benefits induced by air quality improvement in these years are limited. We therefore appeal for continuous implementation of current policies and further stringent measures from both air quality improvement and public health protection perspectives.

  16. Dark Radiation predictions from general Large Volume Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebecker, Arthur; Mangat, Patrick; Rompineve, Fabrizio; Witkowski, Lukas T.

    2014-09-01

    Recent observations constrain the amount of Dark Radiation (Δ N eff ) and may even hint towards a non-zero value of Δ N eff . It is by now well-known that this puts stringent constraints on the sequestered Large Volume Scenario (LVS), i.e. on LVS realisations with the Standard Model at a singularity. We go beyond this setting by considering LVS models where SM fields are realised on 7-branes in the geometric regime. As we argue, this naturally goes together with high-scale supersymmetry. The abundance of Dark Radiation is determined by the competition between the decay of the lightest modulus to axions, to the SM Higgs and to gauge fields, and leads to strict constraints on these models. Nevertheless, these constructions can in principle meet current DR bounds due to decays into gauge bosons alone. Further, a rather robust prediction for a substantial amount of Dark Radiation can be made. This applies both to cases where the SM 4-cycles are stabilised by D-terms and are small `by accident', i.e. tuning, as well as to fibred models with the small cycles stabilised by loops. In these constructions the DR axion and the QCD axion are the same field and we require a tuning of the initial misalignment to avoid Dark Matter overproduction. Furthermore, we analyse a closely related setting where the SM lives at a singularity but couples to the volume modulus through flavour branes. We conclude that some of the most natural LVS settings with natural values of model parameters lead to Dark Radiation predictions just below the present observational limits. Barring a discovery, rather modest improvements of present Dark Radiation bounds can rule out many of these most simple and generic variants of the LVS.

  17. Ribosome•RelA structures reveal the mechanism of stringent response activation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loveland, Anna B; Bah, Eugene; Madireddy, Rohini; Zhang, Ying; Brilot, Axel F; Grigorieff, Nikolaus; Korostelev, Andrei A

    2016-01-01

    Stringent response is a conserved bacterial stress response underlying virulence and antibiotic resistance. RelA/SpoT-homolog proteins synthesize transcriptional modulators (p)ppGpp, allowing bacteria to adapt to stress. RelA is activated during amino-acid starvation, when cognate deacyl-tRNA binds to the ribosomal A (aminoacyl-tRNA) site. We report four cryo-EM structures of E. coli RelA bound to the 70S ribosome, in the absence and presence of deacyl-tRNA accommodating in the 30S A site. The boomerang-shaped RelA with a wingspan of more than 100 Å wraps around the A/R (30S A-site/RelA-bound) tRNA. The CCA end of the A/R tRNA pins the central TGS domain against the 30S subunit, presenting the (p)ppGpp-synthetase domain near the 30S spur. The ribosome and A/R tRNA are captured in three conformations, revealing hitherto elusive states of tRNA engagement with the ribosomal decoding center. Decoding-center rearrangements are coupled with the step-wise 30S-subunit 'closure', providing insights into the dynamics of high-fidelity tRNA decoding. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.17029.001 PMID:27434674

  18. Does dishonesty really invite third-party punishment? Results of a more stringent test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konishi, Naoki; Ohtsubo, Yohsuke

    2015-05-01

    Many experiments have demonstrated that people are willing to incur cost to punish norm violators even when they are not directly harmed by the violation. Such altruistic third-party punishment is often considered an evolutionary underpinning of large-scale human cooperation. However, some scholars argue that previously demonstrated altruistic third-party punishment against fairness-norm violations may be an experimental artefact. For example, envy-driven retaliatory behaviour (i.e. spite) towards better-off unfair game players may be misidentified as altruistic punishment. Indeed, a recent experiment demonstrated that participants ceased to inflict third-party punishment against an unfair player once a series of key methodological problems were systematically controlled for. Noticing that a previous finding regarding apparently altruistic third-party punishment against honesty-norm violations may have been subject to methodological issues, we used a different and what we consider to be a more sound design to evaluate these findings. Third-party punishment against dishonest players withstood this more stringent test. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  19. Putting science on the agenda

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    The job of CERN Director-General comes with a lot of responsibility, and that’s particularly true today. We’re living through a period of unique circumstances for science. Positive indicators, such as a renewal of interest in physical sciences at the University level and unprecedented public interest in the LHC, are aligning with storm clouds in the form of a prolonged economic crisis that will put downward pressure on everyone’s budgets.   That means that science has to make its voice heard if it’s to preserve support, and if it wants to be in a position to play the role it must in navigating the major societal challenges of our time. For that reason, I have been a fairly rare sight at CERN of late. Last week, I was in Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. It was my second time at Davos, and I used the opportunity to argue that science should be more closely linked to the political thread of the meeting. I think my argument was he...

  20. Putting the spiritual into practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia von Boguslawski

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to examine how Rudolf Steiner’s anthroposophical ideas were reflected and put into practice in the lives of the Finnish couple Olly (Olga Donner (1881–1956, neé Sinebrychoff and Uno Donner (1872–1958. They encountered anthroposophy in 1913 and subsequently embraced it as the guiding principle of their lives. Through a close examination of these two people we aim to shed light on how a new worldview like anthroposophy, which was gaining followers in early twentieth-century Finland, was also a manifestation of wider changes in religious culture in Europe. Our perspective could be described as biographical in the sense that it has been characterised by Simone Lässig (2008: 11 who writes that ‘the reconstruction of individual life courses helps to discover more about the context – for example, about daily rituals, pious practices, or kinship relationship’. Thus, the biographical perspective serves as a tool for grasping how something as deeply personal as an anthroposophical worldview was understood and practised, not only by Olly and Uno Donner, but also by a larger group of people who in the early twentieth century were looking for new ways to make sense of the surrounding world.

  1. Stringent DDI-based prediction of H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv protein-protein interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hufeng; Rezaei, Javad; Hugo, Willy; Gao, Shangzhi; Jin, Jingjing; Fan, Mengyuan; Yong, Chern-Han; Wozniak, Michal; Wong, Limsoon

    2013-01-01

    H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv protein-protein interaction (PPI) data are very important information to illuminate the infection mechanism of M. tuberculosis H37Rv. But current H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPI data are very scarce. This seriously limits the study of the interaction between this important pathogen and its host H. sapiens. Computational prediction of H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPIs is an important strategy to fill in the gap. Domain-domain interaction (DDI) based prediction is one of the frequently used computational approaches in predicting both intra-species and inter-species PPIs. However, the performance of DDI-based host-pathogen PPI prediction has been rather limited. We develop a stringent DDI-based prediction approach with emphasis on (i) differences between the specific domain sequences on annotated regions of proteins under the same domain ID and (ii) calculation of the interaction strength of predicted PPIs based on the interacting residues in their interaction interfaces. We compare our stringent DDI-based approach to a conventional DDI-based approach for predicting PPIs based on gold standard intra-species PPIs and coherent informative Gene Ontology terms assessment. The assessment results show that our stringent DDI-based approach achieves much better performance in predicting PPIs than the conventional approach. Using our stringent DDI-based approach, we have predicted a small set of reliable H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPIs which could be very useful for a variety of related studies. We also analyze the H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPIs predicted by our stringent DDI-based approach using cellular compartment distribution analysis, functional category enrichment analysis and pathway enrichment analysis. The analyses support the validity of our prediction result. Also, based on an analysis of the H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPI network predicted by our stringent DDI-based approach, we have discovered some

  2. The rapidly evolving centromere-specific histone has stringent functional requirements in Arabidopsis thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravi, Maruthachalam; Kwong, Pak N; Menorca, Ron M G; Valencia, Joel T; Ramahi, Joseph S; Stewart, Jodi L; Tran, Robert K; Sundaresan, Venkatesan; Comai, Luca; Chan, Simon W-L

    2010-10-01

    Centromeres control chromosome inheritance in eukaryotes, yet their DNA structure and primary sequence are hypervariable. Most animals and plants have megabases of tandem repeats at their centromeres, unlike yeast with unique centromere sequences. Centromere function requires the centromere-specific histone CENH3 (CENP-A in human), which replaces histone H3 in centromeric nucleosomes. CENH3 evolves rapidly, particularly in its N-terminal tail domain. A portion of the CENH3 histone-fold domain, the CENP-A targeting domain (CATD), has been previously shown to confer kinetochore localization and centromere function when swapped into human H3. Furthermore, CENP-A in human cells can be functionally replaced by CENH3 from distantly related organisms including Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We have used cenh3-1 (a null mutant in Arabidopsis thaliana) to replace endogenous CENH3 with GFP-tagged variants. A H3.3 tail domain-CENH3 histone-fold domain chimera rescued viability of cenh3-1, but CENH3's lacking a tail domain were nonfunctional. In contrast to human results, H3 containing the A. thaliana CATD cannot complement cenh3-1. GFP-CENH3 from the sister species A. arenosa functionally replaces A. thaliana CENH3. GFP-CENH3 from the close relative Brassica rapa was targeted to centromeres, but did not complement cenh3-1, indicating that kinetochore localization and centromere function can be uncoupled. We conclude that CENH3 function in A. thaliana, an organism with large tandem repeat centromeres, has stringent requirements for functional complementation in mitosis.

  3. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  4. Canada puts emphasis on SMR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2017-01-01

    Thanks to hydroelectricity and 16% share of nuclear power, Canada is among the few countries to respect GIEC's 2050 climate objectives: producing 80% of electricity without emitting CO 2 . In the context of a growing power demand, Canada has integrated nuclear energy in its energy scenarios. Small Modular Reactors (SMR) are considered as an efficient means to replace diesel generators used in small isolated communities. Several North America start-ups such as Terrestrial Energy that develops molten salt reactors, have moved to Canada. The British firm Moltex has chosen Canadian Nuclear Safety Authority (CCSN for the certification of its 4. generation reactor. In Ontario, Canada's most populated province, nuclear energy produces 60% of its electricity consumption and has allowed the progressive shutdown of all coal-fed power plants of the province. Between 2000 and 2013 nuclear power increased by 20% whereas the coal share in power production dropped by 27%. The 2014 Toronto Public Health report highlights that since 2004 premature mortality has dropped by 23% and the hospitalization due to air pollution by 41%. (A.C.)

  5. Sensorimotor Rhythm Neurofeedback Enhances Golf Putting Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Ming-Yang; Huang, Chung-Ju; Chang, Yu-Kai; Koester, Dirk; Schack, Thomas; Hung, Tsung-Min

    2015-12-01

    Sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) activity has been related to automaticity during skilled action execution. However, few studies have bridged the causal link between SMR activity and sports performance. This study investigated the effect of SMR neurofeedback training (SMR NFT) on golf putting performance. We hypothesized that preelite golfers would exhibit enhanced putting performance after SMR NFT. Sixteen preelite golfers were recruited and randomly assigned into either an SMR or a control group. Participants were asked to perform putting while electroencephalogram (EEG) was recorded, both before and after intervention. Our results showed that the SMR group performed more accurately when putting and exhibited greater SMR power than the control group after 8 intervention sessions. This study concludes that SMR NFT is effective for increasing SMR during action preparation and for enhancing golf putting performance. Moreover, greater SMR activity might be an EEG signature of improved attention processing, which induces superior putting performance.

  6. Cold dark matter in brane cosmology scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahab, Eiman Abou El; Khalil, Shaaban

    2006-01-01

    We analyze the dark matter problem in the context of brane cosmology. We investigate the impact of the non-conventional brane cosmology on the relic abundance of non-relativistic stable particles in high and low reheating temperature scenarios. We show that in case of high reheating temperature, the brane cosmology may enhance the dark matter relic density by many order of magnitudes and a stringent lower bound on the five dimensional scale is obtained. We also consider low reheating temperature scenarios with chemical equilibrium and non-equilibrium. We emphasize that in non-equilibrium case, the resulting relic density is very small. While with equilibrium, it is increased by a factor of O(10 2 ) with respect to the standard thermal production. Therefore, dark matter particles with large cross section, which is favored by detection expirements, can be consistent with the recent relic density observational limits

  7. Putting an end to nuclear energy: why and how

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard

    2011-01-01

    This short book demonstrates the necessity and possibility to put an end to nuclear energy. First, it sweeps away the fallacious reasoning of nuclear supporters, like the energy independence, the safety and security aspects, the electricity cost, the greenhouse gases abatement. Then, it replaces the ending of nuclear energy in the more general framework of a worldwide energy transition, with its constraints and risks, which has become a necessity considering the geographical disparities of energy consumption. According to the author, the particular energy situation of France would lead the country to isolation and to an energy impasse while other worldwide and regional scenarios exist which would lead to exit the crisis and to reach a new energy civilization. Finally, a reasoned scenario of nuclear energy exit is proposed for France which is based on other power generation means. Such an energy transition will require some political and social conditions which are discussed. (J.S.)

  8. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-01

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  9. SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

    1995-01-01

    Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  10. Induction of a stringent metabolic response in intracellular stages of Leishmania mexicana leads to increased dependence on mitochondrial metabolism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor C Saunders

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Leishmania parasites alternate between extracellular promastigote stages in the insect vector and an obligate intracellular amastigote stage that proliferates within the phagolysosomal compartment of macrophages in the mammalian host. Most enzymes involved in Leishmania central carbon metabolism are constitutively expressed and stage-specific changes in energy metabolism remain poorly defined. Using (13C-stable isotope resolved metabolomics and (2H2O labelling, we show that amastigote differentiation is associated with reduction in growth rate and induction of a distinct stringent metabolic state. This state is characterized by a global decrease in the uptake and utilization of glucose and amino acids, a reduced secretion of organic acids and increased fatty acid β-oxidation. Isotopomer analysis showed that catabolism of hexose and fatty acids provide C4 dicarboxylic acids (succinate/malate and acetyl-CoA for the synthesis of glutamate via a compartmentalized mitochondrial tricarboxylic acid (TCA cycle. In vitro cultivated and intracellular amastigotes are acutely sensitive to inhibitors of mitochondrial aconitase and glutamine synthetase, indicating that these anabolic pathways are essential for intracellular growth and virulence. Lesion-derived amastigotes exhibit a similar metabolism to in vitro differentiated amastigotes, indicating that this stringent response is coupled to differentiation signals rather than exogenous nutrient levels. Induction of a stringent metabolic response may facilitate amastigote survival in a nutrient-poor intracellular niche and underlie the increased dependence of this stage on hexose and mitochondrial metabolism.

  11. Stringent homology-based prediction of H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv protein-protein interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Hufeng; Gao, Shangzhi; Nguyen, Nam Ninh; Fan, Mengyuan; Jin, Jingjing; Liu, Bing; Zhao, Liang; Xiong, Geng; Tan, Min; Li, Shijun; Wong, Limsoon

    2014-04-08

    H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv protein-protein interaction (PPI) data are essential for understanding the infection mechanism of the formidable pathogen M. tuberculosis H37Rv. Computational prediction is an important strategy to fill the gap in experimental H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPI data. Homology-based prediction is frequently used in predicting both intra-species and inter-species PPIs. However, some limitations are not properly resolved in several published works that predict eukaryote-prokaryote inter-species PPIs using intra-species template PPIs. We develop a stringent homology-based prediction approach by taking into account (i) differences between eukaryotic and prokaryotic proteins and (ii) differences between inter-species and intra-species PPI interfaces. We compare our stringent homology-based approach to a conventional homology-based approach for predicting host-pathogen PPIs, based on cellular compartment distribution analysis, disease gene list enrichment analysis, pathway enrichment analysis and functional category enrichment analysis. These analyses support the validity of our prediction result, and clearly show that our approach has better performance in predicting H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPIs. Using our stringent homology-based approach, we have predicted a set of highly plausible H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPIs which might be useful for many of related studies. Based on our analysis of the H. sapiens-M. tuberculosis H37Rv PPI network predicted by our stringent homology-based approach, we have discovered several interesting properties which are reported here for the first time. We find that both host proteins and pathogen proteins involved in the host-pathogen PPIs tend to be hubs in their own intra-species PPI network. Also, both host and pathogen proteins involved in host-pathogen PPIs tend to have longer primary sequence, tend to have more domains, tend to be more hydrophilic, etc. And the protein domains from both

  12. Synthetic Peptides to Target Stringent Response-Controlled Virulence in a Pseudomonas aeruginosa Murine Cutaneous Infection Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Pletzer

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Microorganisms continuously monitor their surroundings and adaptively respond to environmental cues. One way to cope with various stress-related situations is through the activation of the stringent stress response pathway. In Pseudomonas aeruginosa this pathway is controlled and coordinated by the activity of the RelA and SpoT enzymes that metabolize the small nucleotide secondary messenger molecule (pppGpp. Intracellular ppGpp concentrations are crucial in mediating adaptive responses and virulence. Targeting this cellular stress response has recently been the focus of an alternative approach to fight antibiotic resistant bacteria. Here, we examined the role of the stringent response in the virulence of P. aeruginosa PAO1 and the Liverpool epidemic strain LESB58. A ΔrelA/ΔspoT double mutant showed decreased cytotoxicity toward human epithelial cells, exhibited reduced hemolytic activity, and caused down-regulation of the expression of the alkaline protease aprA gene in stringent response mutants grown on blood agar plates. Promoter fusions of relA or spoT to a bioluminescence reporter gene revealed that both genes were expressed during the formation of cutaneous abscesses in mice. Intriguingly, virulence was attenuated in vivo by the ΔrelA/ΔspoT double mutant, but not the relA mutant nor the ΔrelA/ΔspoT complemented with either gene. Treatment of a cutaneous P. aeruginosa PAO1 infection with anti-biofilm peptides increased animal welfare, decreased dermonecrotic lesion sizes, and reduced bacterial numbers recovered from abscesses, resembling the phenotype of the ΔrelA/ΔspoT infection. It was previously demonstrated by our lab that ppGpp could be targeted by synthetic peptides; here we demonstrated that spoT promoter activity was suppressed during cutaneous abscess formation by treatment with peptides DJK-5 and 1018, and that a peptide-treated relA complemented stringent response double mutant strain exhibited reduced peptide

  13. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  14. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  15. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  16. City-specific vehicle emission control strategies to achieve stringent emission reduction targets in China's Yangtze River Delta region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Zhao, Bin; Wu, Xiaomeng; Shu, Jiawei; Hao, Jiming

    2017-01-01

    The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region is one of the most prosperous and densely populated regions in China and is facing tremendous pressure to mitigate vehicle emissions and improve air quality. Our assessment has revealed that mitigating vehicle emissions of NOx would be more difficult than reducing the emissions of other major vehicular pollutants (e.g., CO, HC and PM 2.5 ) in the YRD region. Even in Shanghai, where the emission control implemented are more stringent than in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, we observed little to no reduction in NOx emissions from 2000 to 2010. Emission-reduction targets for HC, NOx and PM 2.5 are determined using a response surface modeling tool for better air quality. We design city-specific emission control strategies for three vehicle-populated cities in the YRD region: Shanghai and Nanjing and Wuxi in Jiangsu. Our results indicate that even if stringent emission control consisting of the Euro 6/VI standards, the limitation of vehicle population and usage, and the scrappage of older vehicles is applied, Nanjing and Wuxi will not be able to meet the NOx emissions target by 2020. Therefore, additional control measures are proposed for Nanjing and Wuxi to further mitigate NOx emissions from heavy-duty diesel vehicles. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  17. Putting Opportunism in the Back Seat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai; Weber, Libby

    2013-01-01

    TCE and its applications in management research put more emphasis on opportunism than on bounded rationality. By augmenting the bounded rationality assumption to include interpretive limitations, we show that there are sources of costly conflict that are not rooted in opportunism. Moreover, we show...

  18. THE IDIOM OF KRIVI PUT KOD SENJA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankica Čilaš Šimpraga

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The idiom of Krivi Put kod Senja is part of West-Štokavian dialect. The basics of phonological, morphological, syntactic and lexical characteristics of idiom are considered in this article. Research confirmed common features with idioms of Bunjevo beyond Velebit’s part of hinterland of Senj.

  19. DIST/AVC Out-Put Definition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Gene L.

    The first stage of development of a management information system for DIST/AVC (Division of Instructional Technology/Audio-Visual Center) is the definition of out-put units. Some constraints on the definition of output units are: 1) they should reflect goals of the organization, 2) they should reflect organizational structure and procedures, and…

  20. Multicultural Education Course Put into Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, Eun Jeong

    2016-01-01

    This study examines the ways in which two teachers who have previously taken a multicultural education course put into practice multicultural teaching in a first grade afterschool program. Banks' five dimensions of multicultural education are used as the theoretical framework for analyzing past research on multicultural education courses and for…

  1. Putting Petri nets to work in Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalst, van der W.M.P.

    1994-01-01

    Petri nets exist for over 30 years. Especially in the last decade Petri nets have been put into practive extensively. Thanks to several useful extensions and the availability of computer tools, Petri nets have become a mature tool for modelling and analysing industrial systems. This paper describes

  2. Big meeting puts the case for LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    It was a workshop on a scale to match the ultimate goal. When some 500 physicists met in Aachen, Germany, in October to put the research case for the proposed Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN, the turnout was among the biggest attendances of the year

  3. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  4. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  5. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  6. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  7. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  8. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  9. Peculiarities in the distribution of galactic Wolf-Rayet stars: constraints on evolutionary scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, A.; Lortet, M.-C.; Pitault, A.

    1981-01-01

    The re-examination of the spatial distribution of 158 Wolf-Rayet stars in the Galaxy may help to define different breeds of Wolf-Rayet stars and put constraints on possible evolutionary scenarios. (Auth.)

  10. The implementation of modern digital technology in x-ray medical diagnosis in Republic of Moldova - a stringent necessity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosca, Andrei

    2011-01-01

    The study includes analyses of current technical state of radiodiagnostic equipment from the Public Medico-Sanitary Institution of Ministry of Health of Republic of Moldova (IMSP MS RM). The traditional radiodiagnostic apparatuses were morally and physically outrun at 96,6% (in regional MSPI - 93,5%), inclusive the dental one - 92,0% (in raional MSPI - 97,2%), X-Ray exam -100%, mobile - 84,1% etc. The exploitation of the traditional radiodiagnostic apparatuses with high degree of physical and moral wear essentially diminished the quality of profile investigation, creates premises for diagnostic error perpetrating, increase the collective ionizing irradiation of population etc. In recent years the subvention of MSPI HM RM with digital radiodiagnostic equipment was started. This process is very hard unfold because of grave socio-economic crises in Republic of Moldova. Despite these obstacles the subvention of MSPI HM RM with digital equipment represents a stringent necessity and a time request.

  11. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  12. Putting Opportunism in the Back Seat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai; Weber, Libby

    2013-01-01

    TCE and its applications in management research put more emphasis on opportunism than on bounded rationality. By augmenting the bounded rationality assumption to include interpretive limitations, we show that there are sources of costly conflict that are not rooted in opportunism. Moreover, we show...... that bounded rationality may drive opportunism. All hierarchal forms are inherently subject to specific bounded-rationality-based conflicts, thus have different capacities to mitigate bounded-rationality-based transaction costs....

  13. Insulated hsp70B' promoter: stringent heat-inducible activity in replication-deficient, but not replication-competent adenoviruses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohmer, Stanimira; Mainka, Astrid; Knippertz, Ilka; Hesse, Andrea; Nettelbeck, Dirk M

    2008-04-01

    Key to the realization of gene therapy is the development of efficient and targeted gene transfer vectors. Therapeutic gene transfer by replication-deficient or more recently by conditionally replication-competent/oncolytic adenoviruses has shown much promise. For specific applications, however, it will be advantageous to provide vectors that allow for external control of gene expression. The efficient cellular heat shock system in combination with available technology for focused and controlled hyperthermia suggests heat-regulated transcription control as a promising tool for this purpose. We investigated the feasibility of a short fragment of the human hsp70B' promoter, with and without upstream insulator elements, for the regulation of transgene expression by replication-deficient or oncolytic adenoviruses. Two novel adenoviral vectors with an insulated hsp70B' promoter were developed and showed stringent heat-inducible gene expression with induction ratios up to 8000-fold. In contrast, regulation of gene expression from the hsp70B' promoter without insulation was suboptimal. In replication-competent/oncolytic adenoviruses regulation of the hsp70B' promoter was lost specifically during late replication in permissive cells and could not be restored by the insulators. We developed novel adenovirus gene transfer vectors that feature improved and stringent regulation of transgene expression from the hsp70B' promoter using promoter insulation. These vectors have potential for gene therapy applications that benefit from external modulation of therapeutic gene expression or for combination therapy with hyperthermia. Furthermore, our study reveals that vector replication can deregulate inserted cellular promoters, an observation which is of relevance for the development of replication-competent/oncolytic gene transfer vectors. (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Nuclear controls are stringent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonnekus, D.

    1983-01-01

    The peace-time application of nuclear power in South Africa, the organisations concerned and certain provisions laid down by the Act on Nuclear Energy, aimed at safeguarding the general public, are discussed

  15. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  16. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  17. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  18. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  19. Putting the Fun Back into Fluency Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Mary Ann; Gregory, Anne E.

    2011-01-01

    Based on recent research in fluency instruction, the authors present a scenario in which a teacher focuses her fluency instruction on authentic fluency tasks based in performance. Beginning with establishing a student-friendly definition of fluency and culminating with student engagement in fun fluency activities, this article explores the…

  20. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  1. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  2. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  3. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  4. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  5. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  6. Critical analysis of the stringent complete response in multiple myeloma: contribution of sFLC and bone marrow clonality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-López, Joaquín; Paiva, Bruno; López-Anglada, Lucía; Mateos, María-Victoria; Cedena, Teresa; Vidríales, María-Belén; Sáez-Gómez, María Auxiliadora; Contreras, Teresa; Oriol, Albert; Rapado, Inmaculada; Teruel, Ana-Isabel; Cordón, Lourdes; Blanchard, María Jesús; Bengoechea, Enrique; Palomera, Luis; de Arriba, Felipe; Cueto-Felgueroso, Cecilia; Orfao, Alberto; Bladé, Joan; San Miguel, Jesús F; Lahuerta, Juan José

    2015-08-13

    Stringent complete response (sCR) criteria are used in multiple myeloma as a deeper response category compared with CR, but prospective validation is lacking, it is not always clear how evaluation of clonality is performed, and is it not known what the relative clinical influence is of the serum free light chain ratio (sFLCr) and bone marrow (BM) clonality to define more sCR. To clarify this controversy, we focused on 94 patients that reached CR, of which 69 (73%) also fulfilled the sCR criteria. Patients with sCR displayed slightly longer time to progression (median, 62 vs 53 months, respectively; P = .31). On analyzing this contribution to the prognosis of sFLCr or clonality, it was found that the sFLCr does not identify patients in CR at distinct risk; by contrast, low-sensitive multiparametric flow cytometry (MFC) immunophenotyping (2 colors), which is equivalent to immunohistochemistry, identifies a small number of patients (5 cases) with high residual tumor burden and dismal outcome; nevertheless, using traditional 4-color MFC, persistent clonal BM disease was detectable in 36% of patients, who, compared with minimal residual disease-negative cases, had a significantly inferior outcome. These results show that the current definition of sCR should be revised. © 2015 by The American Society of Hematology.

  7. Are Dutch residents ready for a more stringent policy to enhance the energy performance of their homes?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Middelkoop, Manon van; Vringer, Kees; Visser, Hans

    2017-01-01

    Investments in the energy performance of houses offer good prospects for reducing energy consumption and CO_2 emissions. However, people are not easily convinced of the need to take measures to improve the energy performance of their houses, even when financial benefits outweigh the costs. This article analyses the factors that influence the decision for improving the energy performance of existing homes, including policy instruments. Subsequently, the article provides policy suggestions on how to stimulate energy performance improvements. Both owners and tenants (50–70%) support government policy on energy performance improvements to existing homes. Nevertheless, people also have strong feelings of autonomy regarding their homes. Our results underline the importance of well-informed and competent decision-makers. Introducing the use of Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) into the tax system for energy and residential buildings might therefore be an effective way to increase the interest of owners in the EPC, improve the use and effect of this informative instrument, and make the first step towards bridging the tension between autonomy and more stringent instruments.

  8. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  9. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  10. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  11. Putting the sun to work in Sacramento

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osborn, D.E.

    2000-01-01

    At dawn this morning, the sun went to work for customers of the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD). The largest photovoltaic (PV) power plant in the world, adjacent to the closed nuclear power plant at Rancho Seco, generated enough electricity for over a thousand customers, rooftop solar water heaters lowered thousands of residential electric bills and rooftop PV systems turned hundreds of Sacramento homes into mini power plants. SMUD, in partnership with their customers-owners, is leading the way in putting the sun to work today. SMUD plans to have at least half of its energy come from energy efficiency, existing hydroelectric plants and renewable resources in this decade. SMUD expects investments made in solar power today to provide its customer-owners with substantial long-term energy, environmental and community benefits. This article describes some of SMUD's efforts

  12. "Danish women put up with less"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leine, Marie; Mikkelsen, Henrik Hvenegaard

    2018-01-01

    women put up with less”—and that the report was, in effect, invalid. In this article we outline the discursive space that emerges when the mass media seeks to tackle symptoms of inequality in Denmark. We argue that the ideology of gender equality comes to construct a dominant discourse, which silences...... symptoms of inequality. Thereby, gendered violence in Denmark is rendered invisible in public awareness.......Denmark is a country that has been heralded for its high levels of gender equality for decades. One would have expected, then, that the recent EU report that ranked Denmark as the EU-member country with the highest occurrence of physical violence towards women would have created a public uproar...

  13. Managing coherence via put/get windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumrich, Matthias A [Ridgefield, CT; Chen, Dong [Croton on Hudson, NY; Coteus, Paul W [Yorktown Heights, NY; Gara, Alan G [Mount Kisco, NY; Giampapa, Mark E [Irvington, NY; Heidelberger, Philip [Cortlandt Manor, NY; Hoenicke, Dirk [Ossining, NY; Ohmacht, Martin [Yorktown Heights, NY

    2011-01-11

    A method and apparatus for managing coherence between two processors of a two processor node of a multi-processor computer system. Generally the present invention relates to a software algorithm that simplifies and significantly speeds the management of cache coherence in a message passing parallel computer, and to hardware apparatus that assists this cache coherence algorithm. The software algorithm uses the opening and closing of put/get windows to coordinate the activated required to achieve cache coherence. The hardware apparatus may be an extension to the hardware address decode, that creates, in the physical memory address space of the node, an area of virtual memory that (a) does not actually exist, and (b) is therefore able to respond instantly to read and write requests from the processing elements.

  14. Managing coherence via put/get windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blumrich, Matthias A [Ridgefield, CT; Chen, Dong [Croton on Hudson, NY; Coteus, Paul W [Yorktown Heights, NY; Gara, Alan G [Mount Kisco, NY; Giampapa, Mark E [Irvington, NY; Heidelberger, Philip [Cortlandt Manor, NY; Hoenicke, Dirk [Ossining, NY; Ohmacht, Martin [Yorktown Heights, NY

    2012-02-21

    A method and apparatus for managing coherence between two processors of a two processor node of a multi-processor computer system. Generally the present invention relates to a software algorithm that simplifies and significantly speeds the management of cache coherence in a message passing parallel computer, and to hardware apparatus that assists this cache coherence algorithm. The software algorithm uses the opening and closing of put/get windows to coordinate the activated required to achieve cache coherence. The hardware apparatus may be an extension to the hardware address decode, that creates, in the physical memory address space of the node, an area of virtual memory that (a) does not actually exist, and (b) is therefore able to respond instantly to read and write requests from the processing elements.

  15. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  16. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  17. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  18. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  19. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  20. Stringent constraints on the dark matter annihilation cross section from subhalo searches with the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berlin, Asher; Hooper, Dan

    2014-01-01

    The dark matter halo of the Milky Way is predicted to contain a very large number of smaller subhalos. As a result of the dark matter annihilations taking place within such objects, the most nearby and massive subhalos could appear as point-like or spatially extended gamma-ray sources, without observable counterparts at other wavelengths. In this paper, we use the results of the Aquarius simulation to predict the distribution of nearby subhalos, and compare this to the characteristics of the unidentified gamma-ray sources observed by the Fermi Gamma-Ray Space Telescope. Focusing on the brightest high latitude sources, we use this comparison to derive limits on the dark matter annihilation cross section. For dark matter particles lighter than ~200 GeV, the resulting limits are the strongest obtained to date, being modestly more stringent than those derived from observations of dwarf galaxies or the Galactic Center. We also derive independent limits based on the lack of unidentified gamma-ray sources with discernible spatial extension, but these limits are a factor of ~2-10 weaker than those based on point-like subhalos. Lastly, we note that four of the ten brightest high-latitude sources exhibit a similar spectral shape, consistent with 30-60 GeV dark matter particles annihilating to b quarks with an annihilation cross section on the order of sigma v ~ (5-10) x 10^-27 cm^3/s, or 8-10 GeV dark matter particles annihilating to taus with sigma v ~ (2.0-2.5) x 10^-27 cm^3/s.

  1. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  2. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  3. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  4. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  5. Tourism's collapse puts Gambian women at risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coker, M S

    1995-06-01

    Despite efforts of the Gambian government, which established a ministry in 1981 that would tackle gender issues, improve women's health, and promote empowerment, women are underrepresented in government and business, and 84% are illiterate. Child mortality is among the highest in Africa; 134 children per 1000 die before their fifth birthday. In the mid-1980s austerity measures adopted by the World Bank and IMF left the ministry without funds. Rice and vegetable production, the main source of income for women, fell in the 1990s. In 1994, paddy production dropped 23% from the previous year; this was due to a lack of technical and financial assistance. The collapse of tourism with Capt. Yahya Jammeh's seizure of power has put prostitutes catering to tourists out of work, but women who have lost jobs in the hotel industry may be pushed into local prostitution to survive. The impact of this on the HIV/AIDS epidemic is unclear. Although Gambia is one of the world's most aid-dependent countries (more than a quarter of the GNP before the coup), corruption and mismanagement in the nongovernmental sector is widespread. The director of the Women in Development Programme, a $15m World Bank project, was forced to resign over allegations of fraud. The political process sidelines women; only village chiefs, who are traditionally men, are allowed to vote when new heads are elected.

  6. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  7. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  8. Scenarios and the design process in medical application

    OpenAIRE

    Rasoulifar , Rahi; Thomann , Guillaume; Villeneuve , François

    2009-01-01

    6 pages; International audience; How to make healthcare products and systems fit the work they are to support is a question that has received growing attention over the last decade. In most of the studies trying to answer this question, engineers put an effort to provide the best possible technical solution, but they dispose the important position of users. Design studies in different domains indicated a focus on the users and proposed some methodologies and tools. Scenario-based design as a ...

  9. Putting Personal Knowledge Management under the Macroscope of Informing Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich Schmitt

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces a novel Personal Knowledge Management (PKM concept and prototype system. The system’s objective is to aid life-long-learning, resourcefulness, creativity, and teamwork of individuals throughout their academic and professional life and as contributors and beneficiaries of organizational and societal performance. Such a scope offers appealing and viable opportunities for stakeholders in the educational, professional, and developmental context. To further validate the underlying PKM application design, the systems thinking techniques of the transdiscipline of Informing Science (IS are employed. By applying Cohen’s IS-Framework, Leavitt’s Diamond Model, the IS-Meta Approach, and Gill’s and Murphy’s Three Dimensions of Design Task Complexity, the more specific KM models and methodologies central to the PKMS concept are aligned, introduced, and visualized. The extent of this introduction offers an essential overview, which can be deepened and broadened by using the cited URL and DOI links pointing to the available resources of the author’s prior publications. The paper emphasizes the differences of the proposed meme-based PKM System compared to its traditional organizational document-centric counterparts as well as its inherent complementing synergies. As a result, it shows how the system is closing in on Vannevar Bush’s still unfulfilled vison of the ‘Memex’, an as-close-as-it-gets imaginary ancestor celebrating its 70th anniversary as an inspiring idea never realized. It also addresses the scenario recently put forward by Levy which foresees a decentralizing revolution of knowledge management that gives more power and autonomy to individuals and self-organized groups. Accordingly, it also touches on the PKM potential in terms of Kuhn’s Scientific Revolutions and Disruptive Innovations.

  10. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  11. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  12. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  13. Quality Risk Management: Putting GMP Controls First.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Kevin; Greene, Anne; Zwitkovits, Michael; Calnan, Nuala

    2012-01-01

    to be any control that is put in place to assure product quality and regulatory compliance. This improved approach is also based on how the detectability of risks is assessed. This is important because when producing medicines, it is not always good practice to place a high reliance upon detection-type controls in the absence of an adequate level of assurance in the manufacturing process that leads to the finished medicine.

  14. Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

  15. A Call-Put Duality for Perpetual American Options

    OpenAIRE

    Alfonsi, Aurélien; Jourdain, Benjamin

    2006-01-01

    International audience; It is well known that in models with time-homogeneous local volatility functions and constant interest and dividend rates, the European Put prices are transformed into European Call prices by the simultaneous exchanges of the interest and dividend rates and of the strike and spot price of the underlying. This paper investigates such a Call Put duality for perpetual American options. It turns out that the perpetual American Put price is equal to the perpetual American C...

  16. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  17. Increasing Vaccination: Putting Psychological Science Into Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Noel T; Chapman, Gretchen B; Rothman, Alexander J; Leask, Julie; Kempe, Allison

    2017-12-01

    Vaccination is one of the great achievements of the 20th century, yet persistent public-health problems include inadequate, delayed, and unstable vaccination uptake. Psychology offers three general propositions for understanding and intervening to increase uptake where vaccines are available and affordable. The first proposition is that thoughts and feelings can motivate getting vaccinated. Hundreds of studies have shown that risk beliefs and anticipated regret about infectious disease correlate reliably with getting vaccinated; low confidence in vaccine effectiveness and concern about safety correlate reliably with not getting vaccinated. We were surprised to find that few randomized trials have successfully changed what people think and feel about vaccines, and those few that succeeded were minimally effective in increasing uptake. The second proposition is that social processes can motivate getting vaccinated. Substantial research has shown that social norms are associated with vaccination, but few interventions examined whether normative messages increase vaccination uptake. Many experimental studies have relied on hypothetical scenarios to demonstrate that altruism and free riding (i.e., taking advantage of the protection provided by others) can affect intended behavior, but few randomized trials have tested strategies to change social processes to increase vaccination uptake. The third proposition is that interventions can facilitate vaccination directly by leveraging, but not trying to change, what people think and feel. These interventions are by far the most plentiful and effective in the literature. To increase vaccine uptake, these interventions build on existing favorable intentions by facilitating action (through reminders, prompts, and primes) and reducing barriers (through logistics and healthy defaults); these interventions also shape behavior (through incentives, sanctions, and requirements). Although identification of principles for changing

  18. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  19. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  20. Mediterranean energy transition: 2040 scenario. Executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben Jannet Allal, Houda; Guarrera, Lisa; Karbuz, Sohbet; Menichetti, Emanuela; Lescoeur, Bruno; El Agrebi, Hassen; Harrouch, Hamdi; Campana, Dominique; Greaume, Francois; Bedes, Christelle; Bolinches, Christine; Meraud, Thierry; Tappero, Denis; Bosseboeuf, Didier; Lechevin, Bruno; Abaach, Hassan; Damasiotis, Markos; Darras, Marc; Hajjaji, Mourad; Keramane, Abdenour; Khalfallah, Ezzedine; Mourtada, Adel; Osman, Nejib

    2016-06-01

    The stakes of embarking upon a Mediterranean Energy Transition is essential for countries from both shores of the Mediterranean, especially taking into account the increasing demographics (+105 million by 2040) and the fast growing energy demand in an increasingly constrained context both in terms of energy availability and environmental impacts of conventional energy sources uses. There is a huge, but yet untapped, potential for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources, especially in the South Mediterranean region. By improving energy efficiency and deploying renewables on a large scale, the Mediterranean region would reduce tensions on energy security for importing countries, improve opportunities for exporting ones and reduce energy costs and environmental damages for the whole region. Embarking on an energy transition path will also help improve social welfare in the region and contribute to job creation, among other positive externalities. OME regularly conducts prospective works to 2040, assessing the impact of prolonging current energy trends. Under this Business-As-Usual or so-called 'Conservative' Scenario the situation would evolve critically on all counts over the next 25 years: doubling of energy demand and tripling of electricity consumption, soaring infrastructure and import bills (+443 GW to be installed and doubling of the fossil-fuel imports) and a critical rise in carbon emissions (+45%). Such a scenario, based essentially on fossil fuels, would put further strain on the environment and exacerbate geopolitical tensions in the region. A change of energy trajectory is therefore necessary for all Mediterranean countries to help change current trends and to increase efforts promoting energy efficiency and renewable energies. In this context, MEDENER and OME, based on the 2030-2050 visions of ADEME and the prospective tools of OME, have decided to jointly investigate a Mediterranean Energy Transition Scenario, an ambitious scenario that

  1. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  2. Neutrons put the brakes on stress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gill, Katynna

    2006-01-01

    Don't you hate it when you're driving along, put your foot on the brake and feel that juddering feeling through the pedal? It happens when the disc brake rotors become distorted through normal use of the brakes. To the car manufacturing industry it's called r unout , and is a multimillion dollar warranty problem each year. Not to mention a pain for drivers! Dr Maurice Ripley and Dr Oliver Kirstein from the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) wanted to figure out whether runout is caused by residual stresses from the manufacturing process or by normal use of the brake, so they decided to test and compare a used and new brake disc. 'To picture what metal looks like at the atomic level, imagine spheres stacked evenly around each other in all three dimensions,' explained Kirstein. T he spheres represent atoms in the metal and the structure is called a metallic lattice.' We're familiar with the idea that metal expands when it gets hot - the atoms get excited with the heat and have the energy to move further away from each other, so spaces between the atoms in the lattice get larger. 'When parts of the metal are heated up and cool down at different rates, you may end up with a distorted lattice with some parts expanded and others not,' explained Kirstein. 'This unevenness in the lattice creates residual stress.' While a bunch of methods were available to test the discs, Kirstein and Ripley picked neutrons from ANSTO's HIFAR (High Flux Australian Reactor) as their tool of choice. 'Neutrons allow us to look at the inside of the metal without damaging it,' said Kirstein. 'They can penetrate through the iron, so we were able to take measurements at a series of points at different depths through the brake disc.' Word around the car industry is that when residual stresses are relaxed through heating of the brake disc during use, the discs could potentially distort, causing the runout and that juddering feeling. But everyone was clueless as to what

  3. Whole-Genome Microarray and Gene Deletion Studies Reveal Regulation of the Polyhydroxyalkanoate Production Cycle by the Stringent Response in Ralstonia eutropha H16

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brigham, CJ; Speth, DR; Rha, C; Sinskey, AJ

    2012-10-22

    Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) (PHB) production and mobilization in Ralstonia eutropha are well studied, but in only a few instances has PHB production been explored in relation to other cellular processes. We examined the global gene expression of wild-type R. eutropha throughout the PHB cycle: growth on fructose, PHB production using fructose following ammonium depletion, and PHB utilization in the absence of exogenous carbon after ammonium was resupplied. Our results confirm or lend support to previously reported results regarding the expression of PHB-related genes and enzymes. Additionally, genes for many different cellular processes, such as DNA replication, cell division, and translation, are selectively repressed during PHB production. In contrast, the expression levels of genes under the control of the alternative sigma factor sigma(54) increase sharply during PHB production and are repressed again during PHB utilization. Global gene regulation during PHB production is strongly reminiscent of the gene expression pattern observed during the stringent response in other species. Furthermore, a ppGpp synthase deletion mutant did not show an accumulation of PHB, and the chemical induction of the stringent response with DL-norvaline caused an increased accumulation of PHB in the presence of ammonium. These results indicate that the stringent response is required for PHB accumulation in R. eutropha, helping to elucidate a thus-far-unknown physiological basis for this process.

  4. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  5. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  6. Effect of Putting Grip on Eye and Head Movements During the Golf Putting Stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George K. Hung

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to determine the effect of three different putting grips (conventional, cross-hand, and one-handed on variations in eye and head movements during the putting stroke. Seven volunteer novice players, ranging in age from 21 to 22 years, participated in the study. During each experimental session, the subject stood on a specially designed platform covered with artificial turf and putted golf balls towards a standard golf hole. The three different types of grips were tested at two distances: 3 and 9 ft. For each condition, 20 putts were attempted. For each putt, data were recorded over a 3-s interval at a sampling rate of 100 Hz. Eye movements were recorded using a helmet-mounted eye movement monitor. Head rotation about an imaginary axis through the top of the head and its center-of-rotation was measured by means of a potentiometer mounted on a fixed frame and coupled to the helmet. Putter-head motion was measured using a linear array of infrared phototransistors embedded in the platform. The standard deviation (STD, relative to the initial level was calculated for eye and head movements over the duration of the putt (i.e., from the beginning of the backstroke, through the forward stroke, to impact. The averaged STD for the attempted putts was calculated for each subject. Then, the averaged STDs and other data for the seven subjects were statistically compared across the three grip conditions. The STD of eye movements were greater (p < 0.1 for conventional than cross-hand (9 ft and one-handed (3 and 9 ft grips. Also, the STD of head movements were greater (p < 0.1; 3 ft for conventional than cross-hand and one-handed grips. Vestibulo-ocular responses associated with head rotations could be observed in many 9 ft and some 3 ft putts. The duration of the putt was significantly longer (p < 0.05; 3 and 9 ft for the one-handed than conventional and cross-hand grips. Finally, performance, or percentage putts made, was

  7. Dual Regulation of Bacillus subtilis kinB Gene Encoding a Sporulation Trigger by SinR through Transcription Repression and Positive Stringent Transcription Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Yasutaro; Ogura, Mitsuo; Nii, Satomi; Hirooka, Kazutake

    2017-01-01

    It is known that transcription of kinB encoding a trigger for Bacillus subtilis sporulation is under repression by SinR, a master repressor of biofilm formation, and under positive stringent transcription control depending on the adenine species at the transcription initiation nucleotide (nt). Deletion and base substitution analyses of the kinB promoter (P kinB ) region using lacZ fusions indicated that either a 5-nt deletion (Δ5, nt -61/-57, +1 is the transcription initiation nt) or the substitution of G at nt -45 with A (G-45A) relieved kinB repression. Thus, we found a pair of SinR-binding consensus sequences (GTTCTYT; Y is T or C) in an inverted orientation (SinR-1) between nt -57/-42, which is most likely a SinR-binding site for kinB repression. This relief from SinR repression likely requires SinI, an antagonist of SinR. Surprisingly, we found that SinR is essential for positive stringent transcription control of P kinB . Electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) analysis indicated that SinR bound not only to SinR-1 but also to SinR-2 (nt -29/-8) consisting of another pair of SinR consensus sequences in a tandem repeat arrangement; the two sequences partially overlap the '-35' and '-10' regions of P kinB . Introduction of base substitutions (T-27C C-26T) in the upstream consensus sequence of SinR-2 affected positive stringent transcription control of P kinB , suggesting that SinR binding to SinR-2 likely causes this positive control. EMSA also implied that RNA polymerase and SinR are possibly bound together to SinR-2 to form a transcription initiation complex for kinB transcription. Thus, it was suggested in this work that derepression of kinB from SinR repression by SinI induced by Spo0A∼P and occurrence of SinR-dependent positive stringent transcription control of kinB might induce effective sporulation cooperatively, implying an intimate interplay by stringent response, sporulation, and biofilm formation.

  8. A negawatt scenario for 2005 - 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salomon, Thierry [Izuba Energies, Meze (France); Couturier, Christian [Solagro, Toulouse (France); Jedliczka, Marc [Hespul, Villeurbanne (France); Letz, Thomas [Asder, Chambery (France); Lebot, Benoit [United Nations Development Programme - Global Environment Facility Unit, New York (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The sad perspective of climate change combined with the foreseen depletion of fossil energy in the coming decades impose a radical change in the way we collect, transform, distribute, use and save energy in our modern economies. Over the past few years, many European Governments have made calls and announced plans to reduce by 60 to 80% their national Greenhouse Gas emissions by 2050. The present paper summarises the approach, the assumptions and the findings of a scenario performed by an multidisciplinary team for defining a sustainable energy path for a major European country. The scenario uniquely relies on three complementary steps: energy sufficiency, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The analysis clearly indicates the importance of engaging major energy conservation programmes now and in all sectors of the economy if we want to indeed influence greenhouse gas emissions in the medium and longer term. The paper describes and discusses the key policies that need to be put in place for each sector in the short term. The paper concludes on side benefits of renewed energy conservation efforts (like perspective on local employments) as well as the complementarities and the synergies of policies and measures between local, national and European levels.

  9. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  10. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  11. Project on National Security Reform: Vision Working Group Report and Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    tive of a traditional interagency space working group. It is hard to put a finger on just when the land grab for the moon began. It might have...scenario, a standing Inter- agency Team has been formed to bridge differences in agency priorities. 93 It is hard to put a finger on just when the Moon...6, 1997, pp. 633-647. 243 14. Stephen Millet , “The future of scenarios: challenges and opportunities,” Strategy & Leadership, Vol. 31, No. 2, 2003

  12. What is a natural SUSY scenario?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casas, J. Alberto; Moreno, Jesús M.; Robles, Sandra; Rolbiecki, Krzysztof [Instituto de Física Teórica, IFT-UAM/CSIC, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid,Cantoblanco, 28049 Madrid (Spain); Zaldívar, Bryan [Service de Physique Théorique, Université Libre de Bruxelles,Boulevard du Triomphe, CP225, 1050 Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-06-11

    The idea of “Natural SUSY', understood as a supersymmetric scenario where the fine-tuning is as mild as possible, is a reasonable guide to explore supersymmetric phenomenology. In this paper, we re-examine this issue in the context of the MSSM including several improvements, such as the mixing of the fine-tuning conditions for different soft terms and the presence of potential extra fine-tunings that must be combined with the electroweak one. We give tables and plots that allow to easily evaluate the fine-tuning and the corresponding naturalness bounds for any theoretical model defined at any high-energy (HE) scale. Then, we analyze in detail the complete fine-tuning bounds for the unconstrained MSSM, defined at any HE scale. We show that Natural SUSY does not demand light stops. Actually, an average stop mass below 800 GeV is disfavored, though one of the stops might be very light. Regarding phenomenology, the most stringent upper bound from naturalness is the one on the gluino mass, which typically sets the present level fine-tuning at O(1%). However, this result presents a strong dependence on the HE scale. E.g. if the latter is 10{sup 7} GeV the level of fine-tuning is ∼ four times less severe. Finally, the most robust result of Natural SUSY is by far that Higgsinos should be rather light, certainly below 700 GeV for a fine-tuning of O(1%) or milder. Incidentally, this upper bound is not far from ≃1 TeV, which is the value required if dark matter is made of Higgsinos.

  13. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  14. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  15. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  16. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  17. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  18. Put reading first: Positive effects of direct instruction and scaffolding ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Put reading first: Positive effects of direct instruction and scaffolding for ESL learners struggling with reading. ... are intended to open up for debate a topic of critical importance to the country's education system. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  19. Risky Drinking Can Put a Chill on Your Summer Fun

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... on Your Summer Fun Print version Risky Drinking Can Put a Chill on Your Summer Fun Summer ... adults involve the use of alcohol. 1 Swimmers can get in over their heads. Alcohol impairs judgment ...

  20. Putting Knowledge to Work: Collaborating, Influencing and Learning ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2017-02-15

    Feb 15, 2017 ... Download PDF ... Putting Knowledge to Work explores how the brains of such ... She previously worked with Statistics Canada, Graybridge Malkam, Citizenship and Immigration Canada, and Human Resources and Skills ...

  1. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  2. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  3. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  4. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  5. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  6. Quiet Eye Training Facilitates Competitive Putting Performance in Elite Golfers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vine, Samuel J.; Moore, Lee J.; Wilson, Mark R.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the effectiveness of a brief quiet eye (QE) training intervention aimed at optimizing visuomotor control and putting performance of elite golfers under pressure, and in real competition. Twenty-two elite golfers (mean handicap 2.7) recorded putting statistics over 10 rounds of competitive golf before attending training individually. Having been randomly assigned to either a QE training or Control group, participants were fitted with an Applied Science Laboratories Mobile Eye tracker and performed 20 baseline (pre-test) putts from 10 ft. Training consisted of video feedback of their gaze behavior while they completed 20 putts; however the QE-trained group received additional instructions related to maintaining a longer QE period. Participants then recorded their putting statistics over a further 10 competitive rounds and re-visited the laboratory for retention and pressure tests of their visuomotor control and putting performance. Overall, the results were supportive of the efficacy of the QE training intervention. QE duration predicted 43% of the variance in putting performance, underlying its critical role in the visuomotor control of putting. The QE-trained group maintained their optimal QE under pressure conditions, whereas the Control group experienced reductions in QE when anxious, with subsequent effects on performance. Although their performance was similar in the pre-test, the QE-trained group holed more putts and left the ball closer to the hole on missed putts than their Control group counterparts in the pressure test. Importantly, these advantages transferred to the golf course, where QE-trained golfers made 1.9 fewer putts per round, compared to pre-training, whereas the Control group showed no change in their putting statistics. These results reveal that QE training, incorporated into a pre-shot routine, is an effective intervention to help golfers maintain control when anxious. PMID:21713182

  7. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  8. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  9. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  10. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  11. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  12. The Perpetual American Put Option for Jump-Diffusions

    OpenAIRE

    Aase, Knut K.

    2010-01-01

    -This is the author's version of the article"The Perpetual American Put Option for Jump-Diffusions" Energy Systems pp 493-507. We solve a specific optimal stopping problem with an infinite time horizon, when the state variable follows a jump-diffusion. The novelty of the paper is related to the inclusion of a jump component in this stochastic process. Under certain conditions, our solution can be interpreted as the price of an American perpetual put option. We characterize the continuation...

  13. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  14. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  15. Flexible Multilingual Education: Putting Children's Needs First

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Jean-Jacques

    2014-01-01

    This book examines the benefits of multilingual education that puts children's needs and interests above the individual languages involved. It advocates flexible multilingual education, which builds upon children's actual home resources and provides access to both the local and global languages that students need for their educational and…

  16. Bounds for the American perpetual put on a stock index

    OpenAIRE

    Paulsen, V.

    2001-01-01

    Let us consider n stocks with dependent price processes each following a geometric Brownian motion. We want to investigate the American perpetual put on an index of those stocks. We will provide inner and outer boundaries for its early exercise region by using a decomposition technique for optimal stopping.

  17. Some particular problems put by operating experimental reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candiotti, C.; Mabeix, R.; Uguen, R.

    1960-01-01

    On basis of a six years experience in operating research reactors, the authors explain, first, the difference in their utilization between these piles and another similar ones and, after, in consequence, they set off corresponding servitudes. These servitudes put very particular problems in operating itself, maintenance, modifications or additions on these apparatus. (author) [fr

  18. "Big Bang"test put off until May 2008

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    "First tests in a scientific project aimed at solving mysteries of the universe and the "Big Bang" which created it have been put off from November to late april or early May next year, an official said yesterday." (2/3 page)

  19. PUTTING COMMUNICATION FRONT AND CENTER IN INSTITUTIONAL THEORY AND ANALYSIS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cornelissen, J.P.; Durand, R.; Fiss, P.C.; Lammers, J.C.; Vaara, E.

    2015-01-01

    We conceptualize the roots of cognitive, linguistic, and communicative theories of institutions and outline the promise and potential of a stronger communication focus for institutional theory. In particular, we outline a theoretical approach that puts communication at the heart of theories of

  20. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  1. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  2. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  3. Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Dongjin; Choi, Kwangsoon; Yoon, Hyungjoon; Park, Jungsu [KEPCO-E and C, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage.

  4. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  5. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  6. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  7. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  8. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  9. Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2018-04-01

    Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

  10. Putting an end to nuclear energy: why and how; En finir avec le nucleaire: pourquoi et comment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard

    2011-10-06

    This short book demonstrates the necessity and possibility to put an end to nuclear energy. First, it sweeps away the fallacious reasoning of nuclear supporters, like the energy independence, the safety and security aspects, the electricity cost, the greenhouse gases abatement. Then, it replaces the ending of nuclear energy in the more general framework of a worldwide energy transition, with its constraints and risks, which has become a necessity considering the geographical disparities of energy consumption. According to the author, the particular energy situation of France would lead the country to isolation and to an energy impasse while other worldwide and regional scenarios exist which would lead to exit the crisis and to reach a new energy civilization. Finally, a reasoned scenario of nuclear energy exit is proposed for France which is based on other power generation means. Such an energy transition will require some political and social conditions which are discussed. (J.S.)

  11. The role of anxiety in golf putting performance

    OpenAIRE

    Kenny, Ian; MacNamara, Aine; Shafat, Amir; Dunphy, Orla; Murphy, Sinead; O'Connor, Kenneth; Ryan, Tara; Waldron, Gerry

    2009-01-01

    peer-reviewed INTRODUCTION: Anxiety???s influence on performance continues to be one of the main research interests for sport psychologists (Hanin, 2000). It is apparent, though, that there is a lack of empirical research characterising the multi-disciplinary effect of anxiety on sports performance. The current study aimed to ascertain biomechanical (accuracy, movement variability) and psychological (anxiety) markers to determine how anxiety affects golf putting. METHOD: 22 healthy s...

  12. Distance and slope constraints: adaptation and variability in golf putting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Gonçalo; Couceiro, Micael S; Barreiros, João; Clemente, Filipe M; Mendes, Rui; Martins, Fernando M

    2014-07-01

    The main objective of this study is to understand the adaptation to external constraints and the effects of variability in a golf putting task. We describe the adaptation of relevant variables of golf putting to the distance to the hole and to the addition of a slope. The sample consisted of 10 adult male (33.80 ± 11.89 years), volunteers, right handed and highly skilled golfers with an average handicap of 10.82. Each player performed 30 putts at distances of 2, 3 and 4 meters (90 trials in Condition 1). The participants also performed 90 trials, at the same distances, with a constraint imposed by a slope (Condition 2). The results indicate that the players change some parameters to adjust to the task constraints, namely the duration of the backswing phase, the speed of the club head and the acceleration at the moment of impact with the ball. The effects of different golf putting distances in the no-slope condition on different kinematic variables suggest a linear adjustment to distance variation that was not observed when in the slope condition.

  13. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  14. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  15. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  16. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  17. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  18. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  19. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  20. Sludge quantification at water treatment plant and its management scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Tarique; Ahmad, Kafeel; Alam, Mehtab

    2017-08-15

    Large volume of sludge is generated at the water treatment plants during the purification of surface water for potable supplies. Handling and disposal of sludge require careful attention from civic bodies, plant operators, and environmentalists. Quantification of the sludge produced at the treatment plants is important to develop suitable management strategies for its economical and environment friendly disposal. Present study deals with the quantification of sludge using empirical relation between turbidity, suspended solids, and coagulant dosing. Seasonal variation has significant effect on the raw water quality received at the water treatment plants so forth sludge generation also varies. Yearly production of the sludge in a water treatment plant at Ghaziabad, India, is estimated to be 29,700 ton. Sustainable disposal of such a quantity of sludge is a challenging task under stringent environmental legislation. Several beneficial reuses of sludge in civil engineering and constructional work have been identified globally such as raw material in manufacturing cement, bricks, and artificial aggregates, as cementitious material, and sand substitute in preparing concrete and mortar. About 54 to 60% sand, 24 to 28% silt, and 16% clay constitute the sludge generated at the water treatment plant under investigation. Characteristics of the sludge are found suitable for its potential utilization as locally available construction material for safe disposal. An overview of the sustainable management scenario involving beneficial reuses of the sludge has also been presented.

  1. Global climate-oriented building energy use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D. Danny

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the extent to which global fuel use in buildings could be reduced, and the growth in global electricity use in buildings limited, by applying stringent (factor of 3–4) improvements to recent building codes for new buildings worldwide and large (factor of 2–3) reductions in the energy use of existing buildings through renovations. The analysis is carried out for 10 different socio-economic regions of the world, taking into account existing building stock and energy intensities in each region and projected changes in population and income, which in most parts of the world will drive large increases in building floor area. A stock turnover model is applied to project changes in heating, cooling, service hot water (SHW) and non-thermal electricity demand with various rates of improvement in standards for new and renovated buildings, and various rates of renovation and demolition of existing buildings. For a scenario in which population peaks at about 9 billion and global average per capita GDP increases to twice the 2010 value by 2100, the global fuel demand could be reduced by a factor of four while limiting maximum annual electricity demand to twice the 2010 value. - Highlights: • A detailed model for generating global scenarios of building energy use is presented. • Drivers of increasing energy use are population and per capita GDP in 10 regions. • Heating, cooling and ventilation energy uses are projected using a stock turnover model. • Global building fuel demand could decrease by 60–80% by 2100 relative to 2010. • Global building electricity demand could be limited to a 100–200% increase

  2. Impact of applying the more stringent validation criteria of the revised European Society of Hypertension International Protocol 2010 on earlier validation studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stergiou, George S; Karpettas, Nikos; Atkins, Neil; O'Brien, Eoin

    2011-04-01

    Since 2002 when the European Society of Hypertension International Protocol (ESH-IP) was published it has become the preferred protocol for validating blood pressure monitors worldwide. In 2010, a revised version of the ESH-IP with more stringent criteria was published. This study assesses the impact of applying the revised ESH-IP criteria. A systematic literature review of ESH-IP studies reported between 2002 and 2010 was conducted. The impact of applying the ESH-IP 2010 criteria retrospectively on the data reported in these studies was investigated. The performance of the oscillometric devices in the last decade was also investigated on the basis of the ESH-IP criteria. Among 119 published studies, 112 with sufficient data were analyzed. According to ESH-IP 2002, the test device failed in 19 studies, whereas by applying the ESH-IP 2010 criteria in 28 additional studies increased the failure rate from 17 to 42%. Of these 28 studies, in 20 (71%) the test device failed at part 1 (accuracy per measurement) and in 22 (79%) at part 2 (accuracy per subject). Most of the failures involved the '5 mmHg or less' criterion. In the last decade there has been a consistent trend toward improved performance of oscillometric devices assessed on the basis of the ESH-IP criteria. This retrospective analysis shows that the stricter revised ESH-IP 2010 criteria will noticeably increase the failure rate of devices being validated. Oscillometric devices are becoming more accurate, and the revised ESH-IP by acknowledging this trend will allow more accurate devices to enter the market.

  3. Carbon dioxide removal and tradeable put options at scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lockley, Andrew; Coffman, D.’Maris

    2018-05-01

    Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy (call options) or sell (put options) a given underlying asset at a particular price at a future date. The purchaser of a put option may exercise the right to sell the asset to the issuer at any point in the future before the expiration of the contract. These rights may be contracted directly between two parties (i.e. over-the-counter), or may be sold publicly on formal exchanges, such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange. If the latter, they are called tradeable put options (TPOs) because they can be bought and sold by third-parties via a secondary market. The World Bank has a Pilot Auction Facility for methane and carbon mediation which uses TPOs in carbon-relevant markets, giving producers (of e.g. forest restoration) a floor price for their product [1]. This enables long-term producer planning. We discuss the potentially broader use of these options contracts in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) markets generally and at scale. We conclude that they can, if priced correctly, encourage rapid investment both in CDR technology and in operational capacity. TPOs could do this without creating the same type of systemic risk associated with other instruments (e.g. long-dated futures). Nevertheless, the widespread use of such instruments potentially creates novel risks. These include the political risk of premature closure [2] (conventionally rendered as ‘counting your chickens before they are hatched’) and the economic risk of overpaying for carbon removal services. These instruments require careful structuring, and do not inoculate the CDR market against regulatory disruption, or political pressure. Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of TPO markets in CDR, but we urge caution in respect of identified risks.

  4. Can operations put the MPS into an unsafe state?

    CERN Document Server

    Ponce, L

    2011-01-01

    During the 2010 run, the MPS have been additionally stressed by the commissioning of operational procedures and systems tests. As requested by the MPS external review committee, human factors have to be further minimized and discipline reinforced when increasing the stored beam energies towards and beyond the 2010 target of 30 MJ. This talk will present a synthesis of the Evian discussion on MPS and human factors, with an emphasis on the tools and procedures to be put in place for the 2011 run in order to ensure the machine safety during standard beam operation and after periods of machine developments or technical stops.

  5. The Human Dimension: Putting the Person into Personalised Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Rob

    2017-04-01

    Technological advances enabling us to personalise medical interventions at the biological level must be matched by parallel advances in how we support the informed choices essential to patient and public participation. We cannot take participation for granted. To be truly personalised, medicine must take account of the perceptions and capabilities that shape participation. To do this, we need a better understanding of how people perceive personalised medicine and how they judge its value and risks. To realise the promise of 4P medicine we need to personalise at the psychosocial as well as biological dimension, putting the person into personalised medicine.

  6. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  7. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  8. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  9. Transfer of mechanical energy during the shot put

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Błażkiewicz Michalina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyse transfer of mechanical energy between body segments during the glide shot put. A group of eight elite throwers from the Polish National Team was analysed in the study. Motion analysis of each throw was recorded using an optoelectronic Vicon system composed of nine infrared camcorders and Kistler force plates. The power and energy were computed for the phase of final acceleration of the glide shot put. The data were normalized with respect to time using the algorithm of the fifth order spline and their values were interpolated with respect to the percentage of total time, assuming that the time of the final weight acceleration movement was different for each putter. Statistically significant transfer was found in the study group between the following segments: Right Knee – Right Hip (p = 0.0035, Left Hip - Torso (p = 0.0201, Torso – Right Shoulder (p = 0.0122 and Right Elbow – Right Wrist (p = 0.0001. Furthermore, the results of cluster analysis showed that the kinetic chain used during the final shot acceleration movement had two different models. Differences between the groups were revealed mainly in the energy generated by the hips and trunk.

  10. Putting Reusability First: A Paradigm Switch in Remote Laboratories Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romain Vérot

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a new devices brought online thanks to our Collaborative Remote Laboratories framework. Whereas previous devices integrated in our remote laboratory belongs to the domain of electronics, such as Vector Network Analyzers, the devices at the concern in this paper are, on one hand, an antenna workbench, and on the other, an homemade switching device, which embeds several electronic components. Because the middleware and framework for our environment were designed to be reusable, we wanted to put it to the test by integrating new and different devices in our Online Engineering catalog. After presenting the devices to be put online, we will expose the software development efforts required in regards to the reusability of the solution. As a consequence, the expose work and results tend to make the Online Engineering software architects to think reusability first, breaking with the current trends to implement Remote Labs one after the other, without much reusability, apart the capitalized experience. In this, we defend a paradigm switch in our current engineering approaches for Remote Laboratories implementations: Reusability should be thought first.

  11. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  12. 76 FR 31851 - Safety Zone; Put-in-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock Pier; South Bass Island, Put-in-Bay, OH

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-06-02

    ... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Coast Guard 33 CFR Part 165 [Docket No. USCG-2011-0417] RIN 1625-AA00 Safety Zone; Put-in-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock Pier; South Bass Island, Put-in-Bay, OH AGENCY.... Add Sec. 165.T09-0417 as follows: Sec. 165.T09-0417 Safety Zone; Put-In-Bay Fireworks, Fox's the Dock...

  13. Earthquake Loss Scenarios in the Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyss, M.; Gupta, S.; Rosset, P.; Chamlagain, D.

    2017-12-01

    We estimate quantitatively that in repeats of the 1555 and 1505 great Himalayan earthquakes the fatalities may range from 51K to 549K, the injured from 157K to 1,700K and the strongly affected population (Intensity≥VI) from 15 to 75 million, depending on the details of the assumed earthquake parameters. For up-dip ruptures in the stressed segments of the M7.8 Gorkha 2015, the M7.9 Subansiri 1947 and the M7.8 Kangra 1905 earthquakes, we estimate 62K, 100K and 200K fatalities, respectively. The numbers of strongly affected people we estimate as 8, 12, 33 million, in these cases respectively. These loss calculations are based on verifications of the QLARM algorithms and data set in the cases of the M7.8 Gorkha 2015, the M7.8 Kashmir 2005, the M6.6 Chamoli 1999, the M6.8 Uttarkashi 1991 and the M7.8 Kangra 1905 earthquakes. The requirement of verification that was fulfilled in these test cases was that the reported intensity field and the fatality count had to match approximately, using the known parameters of the earthquakes. The apparent attenuation factor was a free parameter and ranged within acceptable values. Numbers for population were adjusted for the years in question from the latest census. The hour of day was assumed to be at night with maximum occupation. The assumption that the upper half of the Main Frontal Thrust (MFT) will rupture in companion earthquakes to historic earthquakes in the down-dip half is based on the observations of several meters of displacement in trenches across the MFT outcrop. Among mitigation measures awareness with training and adherence to construction codes rank highest. Retrofitting of schools and hospitals would save lives and prevent injuries. Preparation plans for helping millions of strongly affected people should be put in place. These mitigation efforts should focus on an approximately 7 km wide strip along the MFT on the up-thrown side because the strong motions are likely to be doubled. We emphasize that our estimates

  14. Medical Education and Curriculum Reform: Putting Reform Proposals in Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Kam Yin Chan, MD, MB.BS, MHA

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to elaborate criteria by which the principles of curriculum reform can be judged. To this end, the paper presents an overview of standard critiques of medical education and examines the ways medical curriculum reforms have responded to these critiques. The paper then sets out our assessment of these curriculum reforms along three parameters: pedagogy, educational context, and knowledge status. Following on from this evaluation of recent curriculum reforms, the paper puts forward four criteria with which to gauge the adequacy medical curriculum reform. These criteria enable us to question the extent to which new curricula incorporate methods and approaches for ensuring that its substance: overcomes the traditional opposition between clinical and resource dimensions of care; emphasizes that the clinical work needs to be systematized in so far as that it feasible; promotes multi-disciplinary team work, and balances clinical autonomy with accountability to non-clinical stakeholders.

  15. Putting conflict management into practice: a nursing case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vivar, Cristina García

    2006-04-01

    This paper is intended to put knowledge in conflict management into practice through reflecting on a nursing case study. Nursing organizations are particularly vulnerable to conflict as the context of nurses' work may be difficult and stressful. Power conflict is argued to be an important source of tension within nursing units. Learning to manage conflict at an early stage is therefore crucial to the effective functioning of nursing organizations. A nursing case study that illustrates power conflict in an oncology nursing unit is displayed and reflection on conflict management from the case is provided. There is no appropriate or inappropriate strategy to deal with conflict. However, detecting initial symptoms of conflict and adopting the most effective behaviour to conflict resolution is essential in nursing units. Further nursing education in conflict management for staff nurses and nurse managers is greatly needed.

  16. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  17. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  18. Launch Velocities in Successful Golf Putting: An Analytical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John F. Mahoney

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study is concerned with the special case of a putted ball intersecting a standard golf hole at its diameter. The velocity of the ball at the initial rim of the hole is termed the launch velocity and depending upon its value the ball may either be captured or it may escape capture by jumping over the hole. The critical value of the launch velocity (V is such that lesser values result in capture while greater values produce escape. Purpose: Since the value of the V entered prominently in some theoretical studies of putting, the aim of the current study is to provide an original re-evaluation of V and to contrast our results with existing results. Method: This analytical analysis relies on trigonometry in conjunction with Newtonian mechanics and the mathematics of projectiles. The results of a recent study into the mathematics of a bouncing ball which included the notions of restitution and friction were also employed in the analysis. Results: If bouncing and slipping do not occur when the ball hits the far rim of the hole our analysis produces a value of V of 1.356 m/s. When bouncing and slipping are present we find that V is at least 1.609 m/s but increases beyond this value as slipping and friction become greater. Useful relations which relate the dynamics and geometry of the ball to V are provided. Conclusion: Since ambient conditions may influence the extent of bounce and slippage we conjecture that the value of V is not unique.

  19. Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

  20. New York Marcellus Shale: Industry boom put on hold

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mercurio, Angelique

    2012-01-16

    Key catalysts for Marcellus Shale drilling in New York were identified. New York remains the only state in the nation with a legislative moratorium on high-volume hydraulic fracturing, as regulators and state lawmakers work to balance the advantages of potential economic benefits while protecting public drinking water resources and the environment. New York is being particularly careful to work on implementing sufficiently strict regulations to mitigate the environmental impacts Pennsylvania has already seen, such as methane gas releases, fracturing fluid releases, flowback water and brine controls, and total dissolved solids discharges. In addition to economic and environmental lessons learned, the New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) also acknowledges impacts to housing markets, security, and other local issues, and may impose stringent measures to mitigate potential risks to local communities. Despite the moratorium, New York has the opportunity to take advantage of increased capital investment, tax revenue generation, and job creation opportunities by increasing shale gas activity. The combination of economic benefits, industry pressure, and recent technological advances will drive the pursuit of natural gas drilling in New York. We identify four principal catalysts as follows: Catalyst 1: Pressure from Within the State. Although high-volume hydraulic fracturing has become a nationally controversial technology, shale fracturing activity is common in every U.S. state except New York. The regulatory process has delayed potential economic opportunities for state and local economies, as well as many industry stakeholders. In 2010, shale gas production accounted for $18.6 billion in federal royalty and local, state, and federal tax revenues. (1) This is expected to continue to grow substantially. The DEC is under increased pressure to open the state to the same opportunities that Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana

  1. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  2. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  3. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  4. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  5. Holistic assessment to put mobile radionuclides in perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.

    2009-01-01

    Some radionuclides are inherently more mobile than others in the near- and far-field of repository systems and hence, if long-lived, tend to dominate the calculated doses in normal evolution scenarios. High mobility generally a consequence of high solubility coupled to low sorption does not, however, necessarily mean that a particular radionuclide is problematic in terms of repository safety. A more holistic approach, considering the entire safety case, gives a better indication of the critical nuclides and the R and D required to strengthen the assurance of safety. (author)

  6. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  7. Integration of power over fiber on RoF systems in different scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez, C.; Montero, D. S.; Pinzón, P. J.; López-Cardona, J. D.; Contreras, P.; Tapetado, A.

    2017-01-01

    Future high capacity of the 5th Generation radio environment will boost transport networks to be adapted. The high bandwidth, together with stringent delay and jitter requirements, make dedicated optical connectivity a preferred solution for fronthaul. Those Radio Access Networks apart from higher capacity and lower latency should have higher energy efficiency. In order to cover this aspect, power over fiber has been pointed out as a key technology for that purpose having in mind that control plane will be centralized on future Cloud RAN and that sometimes Remote Radio Heads should be deployed in places lacking external power supply in order to fulfill the desired coverage. In this paper, different scenarios on potential demanding environments of power over fiber on Radio over Fiber systems such as automotive, in-house and remote mobile fronthaul will be discussed. Some tests on power over fiber systems based on different optical fibers are provided.

  8. A Scenario Proposal For A Radioactive Waste Transport Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salama, M.A.; Rashad, S.M.

    1999-01-01

    In spite of all precautions that being taken during radioactive materials transport accidents to ensure safe transportation of these materials; there is still a probability for accidents to occur which, may be accompanied by injury or death of persons and damage of property So, in response to the increasing possibilities of accidents in Egypt, the government had prepared an emergency response plan for radiological accidents to coordinate the response efforts of all the national agencies. Trends for use of the radioactive materials and sources inside the country for the purpose of medical diagnosis and treatment as well as in industrial applications, are increasing. The radioactive waste resulted from these activities are transported from the centres where these materials being used to the waste management facility where they are treated and finally disposed safely at disposal site. The aim of the emergency exercise scenario is to test not only the main components of the emergency plan but also the level of emergency preparedness; that is the effectiveness with which the actions or combined actions of the different organizations involved in an emergency can be put into practice. The motivation of the present paper was undertaken to give a scenario proposal for the radiological emergency actions taken in case of a transport accident for a radioactive waste material (type A- package ) transported by a vehicle from one of the medical centers to a disposal site, 40 km northeast of cairo

  9. Securing energy efficiency as a high priority. Scenarios for common appliance electricity consumption in Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foran, T. [Unit for Social and Environmental Research USER, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, P.O. Box 144, Chiang Mai, 50200 (Thailand); Du Pont, P.T. [International Resources Group and Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Bangkok (Thailand); Parinya, P. [The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut' s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok (Thailand); Phumaraphand, N. [Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Nonthaburi (Thailand)

    2010-11-15

    Between 1995 and 2008, Thailand's energy efficiency programs produced an estimated total of 8,369 GWh/year energy savings and 1,471 MW avoided peak power. Despite these impressive saving figures, relatively little future scenario analysis is available to policy makers. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, electricity planners forecasted 5-6% long-term increases in demand. We explored options for efficiency improvements in Thailand's residential sector, which consumes more than 20% of Thailand's total electricity consumption of 150 TWh/year. We constructed baseline and efficient scenarios for the period 2006-2026, for air conditioners, refrigerators, fans, rice cookers, and compact fluorescent light bulbs. We drew on an appliance database maintained by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand's voluntary labeling program. For the five appliances modeled, the efficiency scenario results in total savings of 12% of baseline consumption after 10 years and 29% of baseline after 20 years. Approximately 80% of savings come from more stringent standards for air conditioners, including phasing out unregulated air conditioner sales within 6 years. Shifting appliance efficiency standards to current best-in-market levels within 6 years produces additional savings. We discuss institutional aspects of energy planning in Thailand that thus far have limited the consideration of energy efficiency as a high-priority resource.

  10. ITER safety and operational scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  11. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  12. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  13. Training in virtual environments: putting theory into practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moskaliuk, Johannes; Bertram, Johanna; Cress, Ulrike

    2013-01-01

    Virtual training environments are used when training in reality is challenging because of the high costs, danger, time or effort involved. In this paper we argue for a theory-driven development of such environments, with the aim of connecting theory to practice and ensuring that the training provided fits the needs of the trained persons and their organisations. As an example, we describe the development of VirtualPolice (ViPOL), a training environment for police officers in a federal state of Germany. We provided the theoretical foundation for ViPOL concerning the feeling of being present, social context, learning motivation and perspective-taking. We developed a framework to put theory into practice. To evaluate our framework we interviewed the stakeholders of ViPOL and surveyed current challenges and limitations of virtual training. The results led to a review of a theory-into-practice framework which is presented in the conclusion. Feeling of presence, social context, learning motivation and perspective-taking are relevant for training in virtual environments. The theory-into-practice framework presented here supports developers and trainers in implementing virtual training tools. The framework was validated with an interview study of stakeholders of a virtual training project. We identified limitations, opportunities and challenges.

  14. Putting science at the heart of European policy

    CERN Multimedia

    2015-01-01

    One year ago, the incoming European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker shocked the scientific world by scrapping the post of Chief Scientific Advisor. This week, the Commission made amends by launching a well-considered Scientific Advisory Mechanism (SAM) that not only puts science back at the heart of policy, but does so in a much more structured and robust way than conferring such responsibility on a single individual.     The SAM has two independent strands: an advisory group of seven scientists, and funding through the Horizon 2020 programme for national academies and learned societies to network and collaborate on policy issues. Both are backed up by a secretariat at Commission headquarters in Brussels. When Mr Juncker scrapped the role of Chief Scientific Advisor, it was against a backdrop of sometimes vitriolic attacks on the incumbent, Anne Glover, due to her outspoken views on GMOs. Mr Juncker’s move was seen by some as simply giving in to a powerful lob...

  15. Case studies in control putting theory to work

    CERN Document Server

    Juričić, Đani

    2013-01-01

    Case Studies in Control presents a framework to facilitate the use of advanced control concepts in real systems based on two decades of research and over 150 successful applications for industrial end-users from various backgrounds. In successive parts the text approaches the problem of putting the theory to work from both ends, theoretical and practical. The first part begins with a stress on solid control theory and the shaping of that theory to solve particular instances of practical problems. It emphasizes the need to establish by experiment whether a model-derived solution will perform properly in reality. The second part focuses on real industrial applications based on the needs and requirements of end-users. Here, the engineering approach is dominant but with theoretical input of varying degree depending on the particular process involved. Following the illustrations of the progress that can be made from either extreme of the well-known theory–practice divide, the text proceeds to a third part relate...

  16. Households facing constraints. Fuel poverty put into context

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dubois, Ute [ISG Business School, Paris (France); Meier, Helena [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.

    2014-02-15

    The present paper discusses the concept of fuel poverty taking into account the arbitrages made by households when they are facing economic constraints. Fuel poverty is still lacking a common definition throughout Europe: while the UK and France have (different) official definitions, there is still no definition in a country like Germany, or at the European level. Where definitions exist, they often consider that fuel poor households have high energy needs. The possibility of being fuel poor even without having high energy needs and the various arbitrage possibilities of households - i.e. to under-spend and use too little energy - are not systematically discussed. Our paper tries to fill that gap by putting fuel poverty into the larger context of constraints faced by households. Based on a graphical analysis, it shows that different situations of fuel poverty might occur. It results in the identification of two distinct fuel poverty problems: an ''energy inequality'' problem, reflected by the fact that some households pay disproportionately high energy bills, and an ''energy affordability'' problem that can affect a larger share of the population. It finally explores the two types of fuel poverty for European countries and discusses policy implications.

  17. Households facing constraints. Fuel poverty put into context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubois, Ute; Meier, Helena

    2014-01-01

    The present paper discusses the concept of fuel poverty taking into account the arbitrages made by households when they are facing economic constraints. Fuel poverty is still lacking a common definition throughout Europe: while the UK and France have (different) official definitions, there is still no definition in a country like Germany, or at the European level. Where definitions exist, they often consider that fuel poor households have high energy needs. The possibility of being fuel poor even without having high energy needs and the various arbitrage possibilities of households - i.e. to under-spend and use too little energy - are not systematically discussed. Our paper tries to fill that gap by putting fuel poverty into the larger context of constraints faced by households. Based on a graphical analysis, it shows that different situations of fuel poverty might occur. It results in the identification of two distinct fuel poverty problems: an ''energy inequality'' problem, reflected by the fact that some households pay disproportionately high energy bills, and an ''energy affordability'' problem that can affect a larger share of the population. It finally explores the two types of fuel poverty for European countries and discusses policy implications.

  18. Don’t put your family at risk

    CERN Multimedia

    Computer Security Team

    2013-01-01

    How easy is it to fall into the trap of cyber-criminals? Get one’s online banking password stolen? Lose photos to third parties? It's easier than you think. One single click to open a malicious attachment or a malicious web page is sufficient to put your family at risk.   Sometimes adversaries even call you in order to get their malicious job done. Once their malware is installed on your home computer, it records all your activity, monitors your online banking activities, steals your passwords, activates your computer’s microphone and camera, and sends all that data back to the adversary. This person can now do whatever they want: take money from your bank account, order books with your Amazon password, deface your Facebook profiles, send strange messages to your peers, or post the captured images of your daughter in front of the computer on dodgy web sites. Not only can you lose (lots of!) money, but having strange messages sent on your b...

  19. Putting Qumran, Jesus and his movement into relief

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eben Scheffler

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available After referring briefly to the fantasies regarding the origins of Christianity as elicited by the discovery of the Dead Sea Scrolls in 1947 (Dupont-Sommer, Allegro, Thiering, the purpose of the contribution is to put the Jesus movement into relief in the context of first-century Judaism. The identity of the Qumranites is argued to be Essene scribes. The identity, ideology and practices of the latter are compared with those of Jesus of Nazareth and the movement he elicited using the following rubrics: (1 Jesus, the teacher of righteousness and the powers that be; (2 asceticism versus itinerary charismaticism; (3 caring versus lack of caring for the sick, poor and marginalised; (4 elitist priests and scribes versus lower-class peasants; (5 the interpretation of the law; (6 religious and daily practices (baptism, ritual meal, sacrifice, prayer, community of possessions, scribal activity; (7 religious views or ideology (kingdom of God, the new covenant, light and darkness, politics. The result is a picture of Jesus (with his focus on human suffering in sharp relief versus Qumran and facets of the early church.

  20. Putting your human resource department to work for you.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, C R

    1991-06-01

    As a staff function, human resources is organized as a service activity. Service activities render no patient care; they do not advance the work of the organization. However, they support the performance of the organization's work and in a practical sense become necessary. For example, if a pure service, such as building maintenance, did not exist, the facility's physical plant would gradually self-destruct. Similarly, without human resources to see to the maintenance of the work force, the overall suitability and capability of that work force will steadily erode. Recognize human resources for what it is--an essential service function required to help the organization run as efficiently as possible. Learn what the HR department does, and especially learn why the department does what it does. Provide input to the human resource department. Forge a continuing working relationship with the HR department, making it clear that you expect service from this essential service department. Challenge the HR department to do more, to do better, and to continually improve service--and put the human resource department to work for you and your employees.

  1. Putting equity center stage: challenging evidence-free reforms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehead, Margaret; Dahlgren, Göran; McIntyre, Di

    2007-01-01

    Do we have an "evidence-free zone" around the health sector reforms that have taken place over the past few decades? Certainly, many of the policy prescriptions have been based on ideology and assumptions about the likely impact of policies, rather than evidence-based. The provision of health care is increasingly treated as a commodity that can be subjected to the same prescription as other goods: privatization, competition, deregulation, decentralization. Evidence has slowly emerged over the 1990s and early 2000s on the adverse effects of these policy prescriptions on equity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, but a shift in policy is barely perceptible. There is a need for a fresh approach that puts equity center stage. A gap that must be filled is on the "demand" or "need" side: in particular, the impact of policy changes on families and communities. This article is the first in a series of eight articles that present the findings of studies that attempt to fill this gap, helping to develop a more evidence-based approach to equity and health sector policy from the users'/potential patients' perspective.

  2. Putting informed and shared decision making into practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towle, Angela; Godolphin, William; Grams, Garry; Lamarre, Amanda

    2006-12-01

    To investigate the practice, experiences and views of motivated and trained family physicians as they attempt to implement informed and shared decision making (ISDM) in routine practice and to identify and understand the barriers they encounter. Patient involvement in decision making about their health care has been the focus of much academic activity. Although significant conceptual and experimental work has been done, ISDM rarely occurs. Physician attitudes and lack of training are identified barriers. Qualitative analysis of transcripts of consultations and key informant group interviews. Six family physicians received training in the ISDM competencies. Audiotapes of office consultations were made before and after training. Transcripts of consultations were examined to identify behavioural markers associated with each competency and the range of expression of the competencies. The physicians attended group interviews at the end of the study to explore experiences of ISDM. The physicians liked the ISDM model and thought that they should put it into practice. Evidence from transcripts indicated they were able to elicit concerns, ideas and expectations (although not about management) and agree an action plan. They did not elicit preferences for role or information. They sometimes offered choices. They had difficulty achieving full expression of any of the competencies and integrating ISDM into their script for the medical interview. The study also identified a variety of competency-specific barriers. A major barrier to the practice of ISDM by motivated physicians appears to be the need to change well-established patterns of communication with patients.

  3. Putting the “dynamic” back into dynamic functional connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart Heitmann

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The study of fluctuations in time-resolved functional connectivity is a topic of substantial current interest. As the term “dynamic functional connectivity” implies, such fluctuations are believed to arise from dynamics in the neuronal systems generating these signals. While considerable activity currently attends to methodological and statistical issues regarding dynamic functional connectivity, less attention has been paid toward its candidate causes. Here, we review candidate scenarios for dynamic (functional connectivity that arise in dynamical systems with two or more subsystems; generalized synchronization, itinerancy (a form of metastability, and multistability. Each of these scenarios arises under different configurations of local dynamics and intersystem coupling: We show how they generate time series data with nonlinear and/or nonstationary multivariate statistics. The key issue is that time series generated by coupled nonlinear systems contain a richer temporal structure than matched multivariate (linear stochastic processes. In turn, this temporal structure yields many of the phenomena proposed as important to large-scale communication and computation in the brain, such as phase-amplitude coupling, complexity, and flexibility. The code for simulating these dynamics is available in a freeware software platform, the Brain Dynamics Toolbox. The study of network fluctuations in time-resolved functional connectivity is a topic of substantial current interest. However, the topic remains hotly disputed, with both positive and negative reports. A number of fundamental issues remain disputed, including statistical benchmarks and putative causes of nonstationarities. Dynamic models of large-scale brain activity can play a key role in this field by proposing the types of instabilities and dynamics that may be present. The purpose of the present paper is to employ simple dynamic models to illustrate the basic processes (“primitives” that

  4. CHEMICAL LEUCODERMA: INDIAN SCENARIO, PROGNOSIS, AND TREATMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajaj, A K; Saraswat, Abir; Srivastav, P K

    2010-01-01

    Chemical leucoderma is an industrial disorder in developed countries and the common causative chemicals are phenols and catechols. Due to stringent controls and preventive measures the incidence has come down. In the recent past various chemicals in consumer products have also been documented to produce depigmentation. In India due to lax quality control measures chemical leucoderma due to consumer items is not uncommon.The various consumer items documented to cause contact depigmentation are sticker bindis, rain shoes, plastic chappals, hair dye/ black henna(kali mehndi), alta, wallets and even mobile plastic covers. PMID:21063517

  5. Chemical leucoderma: Indian scenario, prognosis, and treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bajaj A

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Chemical leucoderma is an industrial disorder in developed countries and the common causative chemicals are phenols and catechols. Due to stringent controls and preventive measures the incidence has come down. In the recent past various chemicals in consumer products have also been documented to produce depigmentation.In India due to lax quality control measures chemical leucoderma due to consumer items is not uncommon.The various consumer items documented to cause contact depigmentation are sticker bindis,rain shoes,plastic chappals,hair dye/ black henna( kali mehndi, alta, wallets and even mobile plastic covers.

  6. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  7. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  8. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  9. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  10. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  11. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  12. Putting informed and shared decision making into practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towle, Angela; Godolphin, William; Grams, Garry; LaMarre, Amanda

    2006-01-01

    Abstract Objective  To investigate the practice, experiences and views of motivated and trained family physicians as they attempt to implement informed and shared decision making (ISDM) in routine practice and to identify and understand the barriers they encounter. Background  Patient involvement in decision making about their health care has been the focus of much academic activity. Although significant conceptual and experimental work has been done, ISDM rarely occurs. Physician attitudes and lack of training are identified barriers. Design  Qualitative analysis of transcripts of consultations and key informant group interviews. Settings and participants  Six family physicians received training in the ISDM competencies. Audiotapes of office consultations were made before and after training. Transcripts of consultations were examined to identify behavioural markers associated with each competency and the range of expression of the competencies. The physicians attended group interviews at the end of the study to explore experiences of ISDM. Results  The physicians liked the ISDM model and thought that they should put it into practice. Evidence from transcripts indicated they were able to elicit concerns, ideas and expectations (although not about management) and agree an action plan. They did not elicit preferences for role or information. They sometimes offered choices. They had difficulty achieving full expression of any of the competencies and integrating ISDM into their script for the medical interview. The study also identified a variety of competency‐specific barriers. Conclusion  A major barrier to the practice of ISDM by motivated physicians appears to be the need to change well‐established patterns of communication with patients. PMID:17083559

  13. Sex Discrimination and Intercollegiate Athletics: Putting Some Muscle on Title IX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yale Law Journal, 1979

    1979-01-01

    Argues that the general language of the Title IX statute, together with certain specific features of it, strongly suggests that the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare should develop more stringent and demanding regulations based on social policy considerations concerning sex discrimination in intercollegiate sports. Available from Yale…

  14. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  15. Biophysical investigation of type A PutAs reveals a conserved core oligomeric structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korasick, David A. [Department of Biochemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Singh, Harkewal [Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Pemberton, Travis A. [Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Luo, Min [Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Dhatwalia, Richa [Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Tanner, John J. [Department of Biochemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA; Department of Chemistry, University of Missouri, Columbia MO USA

    2017-08-01

    Many enzymes form homooligomers, yet the functional significance of self-association is seldom obvious. Herein, we examine the connection between oligomerization and catalytic function for proline utilization A (PutA) enzymes. PutAs are bifunctional enzymes that catalyze both reactions of proline catabolism. Type A PutAs are the smallest members of the family, possessing a minimal domain architecture consisting of N-terminal proline dehydrogenase and C-terminal l-glutamate-γ-semialdehyde dehydrogenase modules. Type A PutAs form domain-swapped dimers, and in one case (Bradyrhizobium japonicum PutA), two of the dimers assemble into a ring-shaped tetramer. Whereas the dimer has a clear role in substrate channeling, the functional significance of the tetramer is unknown. To address this question, we performed structural studies of four-type A PutAs from two clades of the PutA tree. The crystal structure of Bdellovibrio bacteriovorus PutA covalently inactivated by N-propargylglycine revealed a fold and substrate-channeling tunnel similar to other PutAs. Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and analytical ultracentrifugation indicated that Bdellovibrio PutA is dimeric in solution, in contrast to the prediction from crystal packing of a stable tetrameric assembly. SAXS studies of two other type A PutAs from separate clades also suggested that the dimer predominates in solution. To assess whether the tetramer of B. japonicum PutA is necessary for catalytic function, a hot spot disruption mutant that cleanly produces dimeric protein was generated. The dimeric variant exhibited kinetic parameters similar to the wild-type enzyme. These results implicate the domain-swapped dimer as the core structural and functional unit of type A PutAs.

  16. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  17. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  18. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  19. Some issues in the ghost condensation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anisimov, A.

    2004-01-01

    In the recently proposed 'ghost condensation' scenario a model of consistent infrared modification of gravity was suggested. We first review the basic ideas of this scenario. We discuss various phenomenological aspects of the ghost condensation, such as stability of the condensate, bounds on the UV cut-off scale of the corresponding effective field theory and other issues. (author)

  20. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  1. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  2. Putting a Stop to di-Higgs Modifications

    CERN Document Server

    Batell, Brian; Stolarski, Daniel; Verhaaren, Christopher B

    2015-01-01

    Pair production of Higgs bosons at hadron colliders is an enticing channel to search for new physics. New colored particles that couple strongly to the Higgs, such as those most often called upon to address the hierarchy problem, provide well motivated examples in which large enhancements of the di-Higgs rate are possible, at least in principle. However, in such scenarios the di-Higgs production rate is tightly correlated with the single Higgs production rate and, since the latter is observed to be SM-like, one generally expects that only modest enhancements in di-Higgs production are allowed by the LHC Run 1 data. We examine the contribution of top squarks (stops) in a simplified supersymmetry model to di-Higgs production and find that this general expectation is indeed borne out. In particular, the allowed deviations are typically small, but there are tuned regions of parameter space where expectations based on EFT arguments break down in which order 100% enhancements to the di-Higgs production rate are pos...

  3. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  4. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  5. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  6. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  7. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  8. Muscular power, neuromuscular activation, and performance in shot put athletes at preseason and at competition period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyriazis, Thomas A; Terzis, Gerasimos; Boudolos, Konstantinos; Georgiadis, Georgios

    2009-09-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate changes in shot put performance, muscular power, and neuromuscular activation of the lower extremities, between the preseason and the competition period, in skilled shot put athletes using the rotational technique. Shot put performance was assessed at the start of the pre-season period as well as after 12 weeks, at the competition period, in nine shot putters. Electromyographic (EMG) activity of the right vastus lateralis muscle was recorded during all shot put trials. Maximum squat strength (1RM) and mechanical parameters during the countermovement jump (CMJ) on a force platform were also determined at pre-season and at competition period. Shot put performance increased 4.7% (p phase was increased significantly (p training period. Shot put performance was significantly related with muscular power and takeoff velocity during the CMJ, at competition period (r = 0.66, p competition period.

  9. The science of golf putting a complete guide for researchers, players and coaches

    CERN Document Server

    Dias, Gonçalo

    2015-01-01

    This SpringerBrief explores the motor performance and biomechanics of golf putting, providing methodologies, studies and approaches to this concept. Presenting outcomes of research published over the past six years, it offers guidelines from a scientifically oriented perspective, and employs new technologies and mathematical methods to assess golf putting. The chapters cover aspects such as pendulum-like motion in sports, setting up the experimental design, and performance metrics for putting variables. Paving the way for an improved understanding of what leads to failure and success in golf putting, this book offers an invaluable reference source for sports scientists, engineers and mathematicians, as well as golfers.

  10. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  11. Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelini, M.

    2001-01-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

  12. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  13. Exploring the future role of Asia utilizing a Scenario Matrix Architecture and Shared Socio-economic Pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Kate; Clarke, Leon; Edmonds, Jae; Kim, Sonny; Kopp, Robert; Kyle, Page; Luckow, Patrick; Moss, Richard; Patel, Pralit; Wise, Marshall

    2012-01-01

    We explore the implications that alternative pathways for human population and economic development have for the role of Asia in reference no-climate-policy scenarios and scenarios in which climate forcing is limited. We consider three different pathways of socioeconomic development, which we refer to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and four different levels of limitation on climate forcing, which we refer to as Shared Climate Policy Assumptions (SPAs). SSPs are differentiated by population and economic growth assumptions, while SPAs are differentiated on the level of radiative forcing in the year 2100. Regardless of the scenarios we examined Asia plays a central role in shaping the world's future with nearly half of the world's people and more than half of the world's economic activity and energy consumption. The future of Asia and the world are dramatically different across the various combinations of SSPs and SPAs. High population worlds place significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. In high population SSPs the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices and the more stringent the level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor populations experience, though the more stringent the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems that are preserved. - Highlights: ► We explore the implications of alternative population and economic pathways for the role of Asia. ► High population world places significant stress on Asian resources and ecosystems. ► In high population world, the poorest members of the population face high energy and food prices. ► The greater level of emissions mitigation, the more stress poor people experience. ► The greater the emissions mitigation, the larger the area of unmanaged ecosystems preserved.

  14. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  15. The Influence of Different Recycling Scenarios on the Mechanical Design of an LED Weatherproof Light Fitting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Camañes

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the high relevance of material selection for the sustainable development of an LED weatherproof light fitting. The research reveals how this choice modifies current and future end of life scenarios and can reduce the overall environmental impact. This life cycle assessment has been carried out with Ecotool, a software program especially developed for designers to assess the environmental performance of their designs at the same time that they are working on them. Results show that special attention can be put on the recycling and reusing of the product from the initial stages of development.

  16. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  17. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  18. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  19. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  20. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  1. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  2. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  3. Perpetual American put options in a level-dependent volatility model

    OpenAIRE

    Ekström, Erik

    2003-01-01

    We find the explicit value of perpetual American put options in the constant elasticity of variance model using the concept of smooth fit. We show that the price is increasing in the volatility and convex in the underlying stock price. Moreover, as the model converges to the standard Black and Scholes model, the value of the put is shown to approach the `correct' limit.

  4. Marketing support of putting on the own trade marks in the retail sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firsova S.

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The article summarizes the practical experience of putting own trade mark by the domestic enterprise on the food market of Ukraine. The author has investigated the marketing strategy of putting on the own trade mark and evaluated its results for the enterprise, formed and implemented to the practice the measures for evaluating the attractiveness of company’s own trade mark.

  5. A new approach to the study of Gold Putting | Dias | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study was to apply non-linear techniques in the analysis of golf putting performance. How players adapt to the variability that emerges from the putting execution and how they self-organize their performance toward the task constraints was investigated. The sample consisted of 10 adult male golfers ...

  6. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  7. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  8. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  9. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  10. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  11. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  12. Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Basovníková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

  13. 2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2013-01-01

    emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors...... of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A Current Policy Scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an Ambitious Policy Scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement......In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more...

  14. Bi-national Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin climate change and hydrologic scenarios report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavender, B.; Smith, J.V.; Koshida, G.; Mortsch, L.D. [eds.

    1998-09-01

    Climate experts in government, industry and academic institutions have put together a national assessment of how climate change will affect Canadians and their social, biological and economic environment over the next century. This volume documents the impacts and implications of climate change on the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Basin, and provides an analysis and assessment of various climate and hydrologic scenarios used for the Great Lakes - St. Lawrence Basin Project. As part of the analysis and assessment, results from the Canadian Climate Centre second-generation General Circulation Model and four transposition scenarios for both climate and hydrological resources are reviewed. The objective is to provide an indication of sensitivities and vulnerabilities of the region to climate, with a view to improve adaptation to potential climate changes. 25 tabs., 26 figs. figs.

  15. Simulation scenarios for rapid reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in the western electricity system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ford, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes a computer simulation analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in the electric power system in the western United States. Legislation at both the state and federal level would impose a price on emissions via cap-and-trade in allowances for carbon dioxide emissions. The simulation scenarios for the western system indicate that dramatic reductions in emissions are possible with generating technologies that exist today. Wind and biomass generators play a key role even with conservative assumptions about their future costs. In contrast, generation from advanced technologies provide only a minor contribution by the year 2025. These scenarios provide support to those who argue that the US should move expeditiously to put a price on carbon dixoide emissions

  16. Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

  17. Why natural disaster planning scenarios are often so disastrously wrong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verosub, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    Taken together the four hurricanes that impacted the United States in the summer of 2017 demonstrate the difficulties involved in trying to plan for any natural disaster, not simply a major hurricane. They also highlight the extraordinary degree to which small and/or random variations in initial conditions can have enormous consequences on the outcome of an event and on the ability of a society to respond to it. For example, if Harvey had been moving faster, it would have meant less rainfall and hence less flooding in the Houston area whereas a slight change in the path of Irma would have significantly affected which portions of the Florida peninsula would have experienced greater or lesser devastation. In the case of Marie, hurricane intensity and path as well as the terrain in Puerto Rico and the inherent state of its infrastructure greatly complicated relief and recovery efforts there. An additional factor that makes planning scenarios so difficult to develop is that major natural disasters can often be analyzed as a sequence of events. At each juncture in the sequence, the event might evolve along two or more very different pathways, which can lead to different outcomes. Sometimes, as with Nate, an event evolves more or less "as expected" and the planning scenario does what it was supposed to do, namely, help people respond to the event. But to a much greater extent than is usually recognized, small or random variations can drive an event off its expected trajectory and into a response realm that "no one could have foreseen." Even worse is when those small or random variations allow an event to bifurcate and follow two or more different pathways simultaneously, leading to a cascading disaster that totally overwhelms whatever planning and preparation has been put in place. Perhaps the main lessons to be learned from these storms is that planning for any disaster requires greater recognition of the importance of small or random factors and greater appreciation of

  18. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  19. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  20. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  1. Redesigned purification yields a fully functional PutA protein dimer from Escherichia coli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, E D; Wood, J M

    1992-06-25

    Proline utilization by Escherichia coli and Salmonella typhimurium requires expression of genes putP (encoding a proline transporter) and putA. Genetic data indicate that the PutA protein is both put repressor and a respiratory chain-linked dehydrogenase. We report a redesigned purification procedure as well as the physical characteristics and biological activities of the PutA protein purified from E. coli. The purified protein was homogeneous as determined by electrophoresis performed under denaturing and nondenaturing conditions. Its N-terminal sequence corresponded to that predicted by the DNA sequence. We showed copurification of proline and delta 1-pyrroline-5-carboxylate dehydrogenase activities. Purified PutA protein bound put DNA in vitro in an electrophoretic band-shift assay and it could be reconstituted to inverted membrane vesicles, yielding proline dehydrogenase activity. The Stokes radius and Svedberg coefficient of the protein were determined to be 7.1 nm and 9.9 S, respectively. These hydrodynamic data revealed that the protein in our preparation was dimeric with a molecular mass of 293 kDa and that it had an irregular shape indicated by the friction factor (f/f0) of 1.6.

  2. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  3. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  4. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  5. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  6. Privacy-Preserving Data Aggregation Protocol for Fog Computing-Assisted Vehicle-to-Infrastructure Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanan Chen

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I communication enables moving vehicles to upload real-time data about road surface situation to the Internet via fixed roadside units (RSU. Thanks to the resource restriction of mobile vehicles, fog computation-enhanced V2I communication scenario has received increasing attention recently. However, how to aggregate the sensed data from vehicles securely and efficiently still remains open to the V2I communication scenario. In this paper, a light-weight and anonymous aggregation protocol is proposed for the fog computing-based V2I communication scenario. With the proposed protocol, the data collected by the vehicles can be efficiently obtained by the RSU in a privacy-preserving manner. Particularly, we first suggest a certificateless aggregate signcryption (CL-A-SC scheme and prove its security in the random oracle model. The suggested CL-A-SC scheme, which is of independent interest, can achieve the merits of certificateless cryptography and signcryption scheme simultaneously. Then we put forward the anonymous aggregation protocol for V2I communication scenario as one extension of the suggested CL-A-SC scheme. Security analysis demonstrates that the proposed aggregation protocol achieves desirable security properties. The performance comparison shows that the proposed protocol significantly reduces the computation and communication overhead compared with the up-to-date protocols in this field.

  7. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  8. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  9. KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

    2014-10-15

    One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

  10. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  11. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  12. Valuing put options on single stock futures: Does the put-call parity relationship hold in the South African derivatives market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Biebuyck

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to determine whether mispricing of options on single stock futures is present in the South African derivatives market. The valuation of options on single stock futures is considered through the put-call parity relationship. The theoretical fair values obtained, are compared to the actual market values over a period of three years, that is, from 2009 to 2011. Only put options are considered in this research.The results show that arbitrage put option opportunities do present themselves for the chosen shares. The actual put options were found to be underpriced in 5 out of 6 (83% of the cases considered over the evaluation periods chosen. The mispricing was significant for both the BHP Billiton options with 100% and in the case of Sasol options (66% of the time. Whether profitable arbitrage opportunities is possible, will depend on the magnitude of the mispricing and the transaction fees payable. Further, more extensive research may help identify tendencies which may be of use for the formulation of arbitrage strategies

  13. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  14. The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

  15. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  16. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  17. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  18. Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David

    2018-06-01

    The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without the inclusion of CO2 fertilization effects, is used to produce ensembles of time series of yield outcomes on a yearly basis over the course of the 21st century, for each scenario. The 21st century is divided into 10 year windows starting from 2020, within which the statistical significance and the magnitude of the differences in yield changes between pairs of scenarios are assessed, thus evaluating if and when benefits of mitigations appear, and how substantial they are. Additionally, a metric of extreme heat tailored to the individual crops (number of days during the growing season above a crop-specific threshold) is used to measure exposure to harmful temperatures under the different scenarios. If CO2 effects are not included, statistically significant differences in yields of both crops appear as early as the 2030s but the magnitude of the differences remains below 3% of the historical baseline in all cases until the second part of the century. In the later decades of the 21st century, differences remain small and eventually stop being statistically significant between the two scenarios stabilizing at 1.5 °C, while differences between these two lower scenarios and the 2.0 °C scenario grow to about 4%. The inclusion of CO2 effects erases all significant benefits of mitigation for wheat, while the significance of differences is maintained for maize yields between the higher and the two lower scenarios, albeit with smaller benefits in magnitude. Changes in extremes are significant within each of the scenarios

  19. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  20. IMPROVING THE STUDENTS’ EFL WRITING ABILITY THROUGH “PUT YOURSELF IN THE PICTURE” STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Lukman Syafii

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This Action research was intended to improve the students’ EFL writing ability through “Put Yourself in the Picture” strategy. This research involved 33 first year managemen major of students A of Muhammadiyah University of Ponorogo in the academic year 2015/2016. This research was conducted in two cycles by following the procedures of the action research, namely, planning, implementing, observing, and reflecting. Each cycle of the research encompassed three meetings. The data of the research were gathered through observation checklists, field notes, questionnaire, and portfolio. The findings of research showed that “Put Yourself in the Picture” strategy has proven effectively to improve the student’ writing ability. The improvement could be seen from the increase of the students’ average writing score. Besides, “Put Yourself in the Picture” strategy can increase the students’ participation during the process of writing. Key words: “Put Yourself in the Picture” strategy, writing ability

  1. Introduction of Renewable Energy Certificate in the Indian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goyal, Mohit; Jha, Rakesh

    2009-01-01

    Generation deficit in India is in the range of 9% and the scenario is expected to get grimmer in the context of high growth rate of the country. With peak power shortage as high as 15.2% (Source: Annual report FY08, MoP) the nation needs to harness all forms of generation including renewables, which currently has a meager share of 8% of the total generation in the country at present. Shooting price of crude oil reaching up to $135 (May 2008) per barrel along with increasing awareness and concerns about environment, the stage seems to be set for an increased mix of Renewable Energy (RE) into the overall energy requirement in the country. Keeping the concern for environment and energy security for the country in mind, government of India has been putting emphasis on promotion of renewable energy sources. Central and state government policies have always been instrumental in the propagation of capacity additions in renewable energy power. One of the main aims of these policies has been on increasing the private sector participation in this sector. In the pre-reform period, the state governments took policy decisions regarding financial incentives, buy-back tariff and other measures targeting investment in renewable energy. However, the State Electricity Regulatory Commissions (SERCs) are now responsible for many of these tasks. SERCs have come up with a host of initiatives, inline with their functions laid down in the Electricity Act 2003, to increase the share of renewable energy inside their respective States. Despite the efforts of SERCs, large potential of renewable energy generation remains untapped. There is lack of clarity on how to promote renewable energy generation inside states which are not having significant renewable energy generation potential. This paper explores the way in which SERCs can introduce measures to further promote renewable energy generation inside the country. We discuss in detail the framework to promote renewable energy through a

  2. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  3. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  4. A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moerkerk, Mike van; Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2016-01-01

    For many countries, the inflow of energy is essential to keep economies running. Oil is typically considered to be the most critical fuel as an input for the petro-chemical and transportation sector and due to limited and less spread reserves. In this study external oil supply risks are assessed for the period up to 2035 for the European Union, United States, China, Japan and India (being the five largest importers of oil in the world), based on their current supplier portfolio. Scenarios are constructed for several climate policy and oil-supply projections. It is found that risks increase strongly, when stringent climate policies are prevented from being implemented, especially when a peak in oil supply is taken into account, resulting in major oil supply-disruptions. China faces the lowest oil supply risks in most scenarios but the trends of India, China and US converge over time due to increasing import dependency of China and India. Japan faces high risks since the country has the highest oil import dependency combined with a low oil import diversification. For the EU, all figures are strongly influenced by Russia, accounting for 32% of total imports, and to a lesser extent Norway (11%), with high overall risks. - Highlights: • External oil supply risks are assessed up to 2035 under different scenarios. • Included countries are EU, US, China, Japan and India (largest importers of oil). • India, China and EU show increasing oil supply risks in all scenarios. • Strong climate policies are needed to reduce future risks. • A constructed peak oil scenario predicts major oil supply disruptions.

  5. New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madlener, Reinhard; Kowalski, Katharina; Stagl, Sigrid

    2007-01-01

    Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders

  6. The perpetual American put option for jump-diffusions with applications

    OpenAIRE

    Aase, Knut K.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we solve an optimal stopping problem with an infinite time horizon, when the state variable follows a jump-diffusion. Under certain conditions our solution can be interpreted as the price of an American perpetual put option, when the underlying asset follows this type of process. We present several examples demonstrating when the solution can be interpreted as a perpetual put price. This takes us into a study of how to risk adjust jump-diffusions. One key observatio...

  7. Choosing put option parameters based on quantiles from the distribution of portfolio value

    OpenAIRE

    Bell, Peter Newton

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores how a put option changes the probability distribution of portfolio value. The paper extends the model introduced in Bell (2014) by allowing both the quantity and strike price to vary. I use the 5% quantile from the portfolio distribution to measure riskiness and compare different put options. I report a so-called ‘quantile surface’ that shows the quantile across different combinations of quantity and strike price. I find that it is possible to maximize the quantile by ...

  8. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  9. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  10. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  11. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  12. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  13. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...

  14. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  15. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  16. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant

  17. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  18. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  19. Integration of software for scenario exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-03-01

    The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

  20. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  1. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  2. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

    1999-01-01

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  3. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  4. Scenario evaluation of open pond microalgae production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slegers, P.M.; Lösing, M.B.; Wijffels, R.H.; Straten, van G.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate microalgae production in large scale open ponds under different climatologic conditions, a model-based framework is used to study the effect of light conditions, water temperature and reactor design on trends in algae productivity. Scenario analyses have been done for two algae species

  5. Blindness to alternative scenarios in evidence evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.G.C. Rassin (Eric)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractIn order to prevent miscarriages of justice, police, prosecution, and judges must remain open to alternative scenarios in which the suspect is in fact innocent. In recent years, however, several studies have delivered results suggesting that open-mindedness is not always standard in

  6. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with

  7. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  8. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

  9. Enhancing the control of force in putting by video game training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fery, Y A; Ponserre, S

    2001-10-10

    Even if golf video games provide no proprioceptive afferences on actual putting movement, they may give sufficient substitutive visual cues to enhance force control in this skill. It was hypothesized that this usefulness requires, however, two conditions: the video game must provide reliable demonstrations of actual putts, and the user must want to use the game to make progress in actual putting. Accordingly, a video game was selected on the basis of its fidelity to the real-world game. It allowed two different methods of adjusting the virtual player's putting force in order to hole a putt: an analogue method that consisted of focusing on the virtual player's movement and a symbolic method that consisted of focusing on the movement of a gauge on a scale representing the virtual player's putting force. The participants had to use one of these methods with either the intention of making progress in actual putting or in a second condition to simply enjoy the game. Results showed a positive transfer of video playing to actual putting skill for the learning group and also, to a lesser degree, for the enjoyment group; but only when they used the symbolic method. Results are discussed in the context of how vision may convey force cues in sports video games.

  10. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  11. CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

    2015-01-01

    The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

  12. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  13. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  14. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  15. Metagenomic Detection Methods in Biopreparedness Outbreak Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Oskar Erik; Hansen, Trine; Knutsson, Rickard

    2013-01-01

    In the field of diagnostic microbiology, rapid molecular methods are critically important for detecting pathogens. With rapid and accurate detection, preventive measures can be put in place early, thereby preventing loss of life and further spread of a disease. From a preparedness perspective...... of a clinical sample, creating a metagenome, in a single week of laboratory work. As new technologies emerge, their dissemination and capacity building must be facilitated, and criteria for use, as well as guidelines on how to report results, must be established. This article focuses on the use of metagenomics...

  16. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  17. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  18. A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

    1992-01-01

    The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

  19. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  20. 2050 pathway to an active renewable energy scenario for Jiangsu province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Lixuan; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad; Möller, Bernd

    2013-01-01

    In 2009, Jiangsu province of China supplied 99.6 percent of its total energy consumption with fossil fuels, of which 82 percent was imported from other provinces and countries. With rising energy demand, frequent energy shortages, and increasing pollution, it is essential for Jiangsu to put more emphasis on improving its energy efficiency and utilizing its renewable resources in the future. This paper presents the integrated energy pathway for Jiangsu during its social and economic transformation until 2050. EnergyPLAN is the chosen energy system analysis tool, since it accounts for all sectors of the energy system that needs to be considered when integrating large-scale renewable energy. A current policy scenario (CPS) based on current energy policies and an ambitious policy scenario (APS) based on large-scale integration of renewable energy and ambitious measures of energy efficiency improvement are proposed. The two energy pathways are modeled and compared in terms of technology combination, non-fossil fuel shares of primary energy supply, socioeconomic costs, and CO 2 emissions. The insights from these pathways can provide valuable input for Jiangsu's future energy policies. - Highlights: ► An integrated energy pathway is designed for Jiangsu province by 2050. ► A current policy scenario and an ambitious policy scenario are modeled and assessed. ► The ambitious policy scenario can help stabilize CO 2 emissions and achieve better economy. ► The next 5–10 years would be a key period for Jiangsu's energy system transition. ► Several policy suggestions have been proposed.

  1. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  2. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  3. Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

    2010-01-01

    Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

  4. U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderslice, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.

  5. The UFE Prospective scenarios for energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    After an overview of the French energy consumption in 2011 (final energy consumption, distribution of CO 2 emissions related to energy consumption), this Power Point presentation proposes graphs and figures illustrating UFE's prospective scenarios for energy demand. The objective is to foresee energy demand in 2050, to study the impact of possible actions on energy demand, and to assess the impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Hypotheses relate to demographic evolution, economic growth, energy intensity evolution, energy efficiency, and use transfers. Factors of evolution of energy demand are discussed: relationship between demography and energy consumption, new uses of electricity (notably with TICs), relationship between energy intensity and economic growth. Actions on demand are discussed. The results of different scenarios of technical evolution are presented

  6. Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker Grienitz

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

  7. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  8. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  9. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  10. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  11. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  12. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  13. BIOMOVS test scenario model comparison using BIOPATH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grogan, H.A.; Van Dorp, F.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents the results of the irrigation test scenario, presented in the BIOMOVS intercomparison study, calculated by the computer code BIOPATH. This scenario defines a constant release of Tc-99 and Np-237 into groundwater that is used for irrigation. The system of compartments used to model the biosphere is based upon an area in northern Switzerland and is essentially the same as that used in Projekt Gewaehr to assess the radiological impact of a high level waste repository. Two separate irrigation methods are considered, namely ditch and overhead irrigation. Their influence on the resultant activities calculated in the groundwater, soil and different foodproducts, as a function of time, is evaluated. The sensitivity of the model to parameter variations is analysed which allows a deeper understanding of the model chain. These results are assessed subjectively in a first effort to realistically quantify the uncertainty associated with each calculated activity. (author)

  14. 3 Investment Scenarios for Fast Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shoai Tehrani, Bianka; Da Costa, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    Results: • 4 families of scenarios: – In each of them, 3 options for national nuclear policy → 12 scenarios; – 3 favorable to FRs: - “climate constraint” with strong pro-nuclear policy - “climate constraint” with moderate pro-nuclear policy - “totally green” with strong pro-nuclear policy. • Business As Usual is not favorable to Fast Reactors; Fast reactors deployment: - Needs strong climate policy - Is viable in case of important renewable progress as long as climate policy is strong. International perspective: • Results are valid for Europe, other drivers being likely to be more important in other countries : high growth and demand (Asia); • With strong contrasts between European countries. Further research: • Finer modeling of drivers with unclear influence (clustered and excluded variables): Influence of weak signals

  15. TIBER engineering test reactor (ETR) startup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackfield, D.T.; Perkins, L.J.

    1987-01-01

    A time-dependent Tokamak Systems Code (TTSC) has been developed and used to examine various inductively driven startup scenarios for the TIBER reactor. Radially averaged particle and energy balance equations are solved. In addition, time varying currents in the PF and OH coils are determined from MHD equilibrium and volt-seconds considerations. Less than 20 MW of auxiliary power deposited in the electrons is required to obtain steady-state operations. For this scenario, less than 10% of the total volt-seconds capability is consumed during startup and the currents in the PF and OH coils do not appear to exceed stress limits. For every volt-second saved during startup, the burn time can be extended 14 seconds. 4 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs

  16. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M J [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Div. of Applied Sciences; Crouch, E [Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (USA). Energy and Environmental Policy Center

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km/sup 2/ of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the waste are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  17. Extreme scenarios for nuclear waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, M J; Crouch, E

    1982-09-01

    Two extreme scenarios for release of radioactive waste have been constructed. In the first, a volcanic eruption releases 1 km2 of an underground nuclear waste repository, while in the second, waste enters the drinking water reservoir of a major city. With pessimistic assumptions, upper bounds on the number of cancers due to radiation are calculated. In the volcano scenario, the effects of the water are smaller than the effects of natural radioactivity in the volcanic dust if the delay between emplacement and eruption exceeds 2000 yr. The consequences of the waste in drinking water depend on the survival time of the canisters and the rate of leaching of the nuclides from the waste matrix. For a canister life of 400 yr and a leach time of 6300 yr the cancer rate in the affected area would increase by 25%.

  18. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis?(NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  19. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M; Ahmed, Rami

    2016-08-31

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes.

  20. The climatic scenario of global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deque, M.

    2007-01-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  1. Scenarios for the Electrification of Transport

    OpenAIRE

    Kanudia , Amit; Gastineau , Pascal; BACHMANN , Till; PREISS , Philipp; STOFFREGEN , Alexander; VINOT , Simon; CHEZE , Benoît; Tchung-Ming , Stéphane; BOUVART , Frédérique

    2015-01-01

    SCelecTRA - Scenarios for the electrification of Transport is a collaborative project under the ERANET - Electromobility+ call for project and aims at: · identifying the conditions and public policies actions to develop road passenger electromobility in Europe for 2030, · assessing the environmental impacts of such policies via consequential Life Cycle Analysis as well as their external costs.; Sélectionné dans le cadre du programme ERANET- Electromobility+, le projet visait à identifier les ...

  2. A Note on Scenarios of Metastable Water

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jirsák, Jan; Nezbeda, Ivo

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 75, č. 5 (2010), s. 593-605 ISSN 0010-0765 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400720802; GA AV ČR IAA200760905; GA AV ČR IAA400720710 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : metastable water * spinodal * scenarios Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 0.853, year: 2010

  3. Internal wave attractors: different scenarios of instability

    OpenAIRE

    Brouzet, Christophe; Ermanyuk, E. V.; Joubaud, Sylvain; Pillet, Grimaud; Dauxois, Thierry

    2017-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents an experimental study of different instability scenarios in a parallelogram-shaped internal wave attractor in a trapezoidal domain filled with a uniformly stratified fluid.Energy is injected into the system via the oscillatory motion of a vertical wall of the trapezoidal domain. Whole-field velocity measurements are performed with the conventional PIV technique. In the linear regime, the total kinetic energyof the fluid system is used to quantify th...

  4. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software ...Homeland Security under Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0003 with Carnegie Mellon University for the operation of the Software Engineering Institute, a federally...DISTRIBUTES IT “AS IS.” References herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trade mark, manufacturer, or otherwise

  5. Investment scenarios for Chinese power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An analysis is provided of returns for investment in power plants in China and India. Three sample investment scenarios are compared to illustrate the relative merits of each financing arrangement. The best returns would seem to be offered by a mix of debt and equity financing. The potential problem of gradual currency depreciation can be overcome by early cash payments. Foreign investment in China's power generation industry would be more readily forthcoming if easier access to debt finance were available. (UK)

  6. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...... and power to act themselves instead of just being passively adjusted to the ongoing changes of their organisation or community....

  7. The Emissions Scenarios Portal: Visualizing Low-Carbon Pathways for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, R. J.; Friedrich, J.; Ge, M.; Mountford, H.; Fransen, T.; Altamirano, J. C.; Thanawala, Z.; Arcipowska, A.

    2017-12-01

    The Emissions Scenarios Portal (ESP) is a newly developed exploration tool for 21st century low-carbon pathways and investigation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC's) that countries have put forward under the Paris Agreement. It is open to the public and aims to help achieve the goal of limiting global temperature increase to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by enhancing access to high-quality, up-to-date scenario information. It can guide users to set ambitious, realistic emission mitigation goals and understand what these goals imply for different sectors of the economy. Data will be integrated from a wide variety of economic and energy-system models with results from both national models as well as globally integrated assessment models (IAM's) and countries biennial update reports (BUR's). This information can support policy and investment decision making that will lead to a low carbon future. It is designed to help find answers to questions such as "Are the NDC's enough to put the world on a 2DC track?", "What do NDC's imply for different sectors of the economy under different assumptions?" or "What are good ways to increase ambition beyond NDC's?". The portal strives to achieve both inter-comparability across a wide range of different models and nationally reported scenarios, as well as flexibility to allow modelers to bring out the strengths and purpose of their model on the platform. Furthermore, it aims to enhance standardized and transparent reporting of emissions scenarios and relevant metadata, assumptions and results to improve understanding, accessibility and impact of the scenarios. On the data side, these rivaling objectives present interesting challenges for both the collection and communication of the data and in this presentation we will present some of our ideas for tackling these. This project will be part of Climate Watch, a new data platform developed jointly by the World Resources Institute and the NDC

  8. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  9. Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-03-31

    IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  11. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  12. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  13. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

  14. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1997-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  15. Closing in on mass-degenerate dark matter scenarios with antiprotons and direct detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garny, Mathias; Ibarra, Alejandro; Pato, Miguel; Vogl, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    Over the last years both cosmic-ray antiproton measurements and direct dark matter searches have proved particularly effective in constraining the nature of dark matter candidates. The present work focusses on these two types of constraints in a minimal framework which features a Majorana fermion as the dark matter particle and a scalar that mediates the coupling to quarks. Considering a wide range of coupling schemes, we derive antiproton and direct detection constraints using the latest data and paying close attention to astrophysical and nuclear uncertainties. Both signals are strongly enhanced in the presence of degenerate dark matter and scalar masses, but we show that the effect is especially dramatic in direct detection. Accordingly, the latest direct detection limits take the lead over antiprotons. We find that antiproton and direct detection data set stringent lower limits on the mass splitting, reaching 19% at a 300 GeV dark matter mass for a unity coupling. Interestingly, these limits are orthogonal to ongoing collider searches at the Large Hadron Collider, making it feasible to close in on degenerate dark matter scenarios within the next years

  16. Global transportation scenarios in the multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muehlich, P.; Hamacher, T.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of the transportation sector on the role of fusion power in the energy system of the 21st century. Key indicators in this context are global passenger and freight transportation activities, consumption levels of fuels used for transportation purposes, the electricity generation mix and greenhouse gas emissions. These quantities are calculated by means of the global multi-regional EFDA-TIMES energy system model. For the present study a new transportation module has been linked to the EFDA-TIMES framework in order to arrive at a consistent projection of future transportation demands. Results are discussed implying various global energy scenarios including assumed crossovers of road transportation activities towards hydrogen or electricity infrastructures and atmospheric CO 2 concentration stabilization levels at 550 ppm and 450 ppm. Our results show that the penetration of fusion power plants is only slightly sensitive to transportation fuel choices but depends strongly on assumed climate policies. In the most stringent case considered here the contribution of electricity produced by fusion power plants can become as large as about 50% at the end of the 21st century. This statement, however, is still of preliminary nature as the EFDA-TIMES project has not yet reached a final status.

  17. Closing in on mass-degenerate dark matter scenarios with antiprotons and direct detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garny, Mathias [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron (DESY), Hamburg (Germany); Ibarra, Alejandro; Pato, Miguel; Vogl, Stefan [Technische Univ. Muenchen, Garching (Germany). Physik-Department

    2012-07-15

    Over the last years both cosmic-ray antiproton measurements and direct dark matter searches have proved particularly effective in constraining the nature of dark matter candidates. The present work focusses on these two types of constraints in a minimal framework which features a Majorana fermion as the dark matter particle and a scalar that mediates the coupling to quarks. Considering a wide range of coupling schemes, we derive antiproton and direct detection constraints using the latest data and paying close attention to astrophysical and nuclear uncertainties. Both signals are strongly enhanced in the presence of degenerate dark matter and scalar masses, but we show that the effect is especially dramatic in direct detection. Accordingly, the latest direct detection limits take the lead over antiprotons. We find that antiproton and direct detection data set stringent lower limits on the mass splitting, reaching 19% at a 300 GeV dark matter mass for a unity coupling. Interestingly, these limits are orthogonal to ongoing collider searches at the Large Hadron Collider, making it feasible to close in on degenerate dark matter scenarios within the next years.

  18. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  19. A Discussion on the Concept of Water Resources from the Perspective of the Most Stringent Water Management System%最严格水资源管理制度视野下水资源概念探讨

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡德胜

    2015-01-01

    In order to solve the increasingly serious water problems and solve this major bottleneck in China’s sustainable economic and so-cial development,China has decided to establish and implement the most stringent water management system. In order to refine and imple-ment this system,it is necessary to clarify the basic term of“water resources”with its definition and extension according to legal theory. By comparing and analyzing different understandings and/or legal definitions of“water resources”,at home and abroad,from different disci-plines,and from different legal systems in different countries,based on the perspective of the most stringent water management system,the scope of“water resources”should be legitimately delimited in a way of considering the substance of water itself as well as its relevant roles and functions comprehensively,and therefore:(i)in terms of quantity,“water resources”should be limited to freshwater in principle,only surface water and groundwater should be calculated,and atmospheric water,soil water and green water should be excluded;(ii)the man-agement of water quality and self-purification capacity should be emphasized;(iii)the objects of the most stringent water management sys-tem should include hydraulic power resources,water transport resources and those carrier of water resources,such as river/waterway,lake, wetland,reservoir/dam,pond,spring,well,glacier,etc.%为了解决日益严峻的水问题,我国决定建立并正在实施最严格水资源管理制度。为了细化和便于实施最严格水资源管理制度,需要对“水资源”这一基础术语的内涵和外延有一个符合法学理论的界定。通过比较和分析国内外、不同学科、不同国家法律对于水资源的不同认识、理解或者法律界定,基于最严格水资源管理制度的视野,需要综合考虑水物质及与其有关的各种作用和功能,对水资源的范围予以合理界定:在数量方面限

  20. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

    2014-01-01

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  1. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  2. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  3. How Does Pricing of Day-ahead Electricity Market Affect Put Option Pricing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Raouf Sheybani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncertainty in fuel price, day-ahead market pricing, and elasticity of consumers to strike price, premium price, and day-ahead price are taken into account in these models. By applying the presented models to a test system impact of day-ahead market pricing on equilibrium of joint put option and day-ahead markets are studied.

  4. Putting to a bigger hole: Golf performance relates to perceived size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Jessica K.; Linkenauger, Sally A.; Bakdash, Jonathan Z.; Proffitt, Dennis R.

    2011-01-01

    When engaged in a skilled behaviour such as occurs in sports, people's perceptions relate optical information to their performance. In current research we demonstrate the effects of performance on size perception in golfers. We found golfers who played better judged the hole to be bigger than golfers who did not play as well (Study 1). In follow-up laboratory experiments, participants putted on a golf mat from a location near or far from the hole then judged the size of the hole. Participants who putted from the near location perceived the hole to be bigger than participants who putted from the far location. Our results demonstrate that perception is influenced by the perceiver's current ability to act effectively in the environment. PMID:18567258

  5. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  6. Pityriasis Rubra Pilaris In The Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarkar Rashmi

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Pityriasis rubra pilaris (PRP is an uncommon idiopathic papulosqamous disorder characterized by circumscribed follicular keratosis, palmoplantar keratoderma and frequently erythroderma. Seven patients of PRP (five females and two males in the age range of 2 to 50 years seen over a 2-year period are presented with their clinical features, triggering factors, associations and laboratory investigations. The clinical type of PRP was adult onset classical variety in three, juvenile circumscribed variety in two and adult onset atypical variety and juvenile classical variety in one each. The triggering factors were upper respiratory tract infection with nutritional deficiencies in two and folliculitis in one. The histopathology was consistent with PRP in all. Four patients were managed with oral vitamin A while one each was put on methotrexate, etretinate and topical steroids and they showed a good response. More number of cases should be studied over a longer period to substantiate the suggested immunologic mechanism of PRP.

  7. The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1998-04-01

    The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

  8. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO 2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The fundamental assumptions

  9. Future coal production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios: Are they plausible?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-10-15

    Anthropogenic climate change caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to the future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Coal, with its 26% share of world energy, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions and commonly seen as a key contributor to anthropogenic climate change. SRES contains a wide array of different coal production outlooks, ranging from a complete coal phase-out by 2100 to a roughly tenfold increase from present world production levels. Scenarios with high levels of global warming also have high expectations on future fossil fuel production. The assumptions on resource availability are in SRES based on Rogner's assessment of world hydrocarbon resources from 1997, where it is stated that 'the sheer size of the fossil resource base makes fossil sources an energy supply option for many centuries to come'. Regarding the future coal production it is simply assumed to be dependent on economics, accessibility, and environmental acceptance. It is also generally assumed that coal is abundant, and will thus take a dominating part in the future energy system. Depletion, geographical location and geological parameters are not given much influence in the scenario storylines. This study quantifies what the coal production projection in SRES would imply in reality. SRES is riddled with future production projections that would put unreasonable expectation on just a few countries or regions. Is it reasonable to expect that China, among the world's largest coal reserve and resource holder and producer, would increase their production by a factor of 8 over the next 90 years, as implied by certain scenarios? Can massive increases in global coal output really be justified from historical trends or will reality rule out some production outlooks as implausible? The

  10. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  11. Hydrogen energy network start-up scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weingartner, S.; Ellerbrock, H.

    1994-01-01

    Hydrogen is widely discussed as future fuel and energy storage medium either to replace conventional fuels for automobiles, aircrafts and ships or to avoid the necessity of bulky battery systems for electricity storage, especially in connection with solar power systems. These discussions however started more than 25 years ago and up to now hydrogen has failed to achieve a major break-through towards wider application as energy storage medium in civil markets. The main reason is that other fuels are cheaper and very well implemented in our daily life. A study has been performed at Deutsche Aerospace in order to evaluate the boundary conditions, either political or economical, which would give hydrogen the necessary push, i.e. advantage over conventional fuels. The main goal of this study was to identify critical influence factors and specific start-up scenarios which would allow an economical and practically realistic use of hydrogen as fuel and energy medium in certain niche markets outside the space industry. Method and major results of this study are presented in detail in the paper. Certain niche markets could be identified, where with little initial governmental support, either by funding, tax laws or legislation, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels. This however requires a scenario where a lot of small actions have to be taken by a high variety of institutions and industries which today are not interconnected with each other, i.e. it requires a new cooperative and proactive network between e.g. energy utilities, car industries, those who have a sound experience with hydrogen (space industry, chemical industry) and last, but certainly not the least, the government. Based on the developed scenario precise recommendations are drawn as conclusions

  12. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

    2014-01-01

    Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  13. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  14. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2017-03-15

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  15. Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

    2005-01-01

    The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

  16. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  17. Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

    2017-01-01

    To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

  18. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

  19. Optimal neutral beam heating scenario for FED

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hively, L.M.; Houlberg, W.A.; Attenberger, S.E.

    1981-01-01

    Optimal neutral beam heating scenarios are determined for FED based on a 1/one-half/-D transport analysis. Tradeoffs are examined between neutral beam energy, power, and species mix for positive ion systems. A ramped density startup is found to provide the most economical heating. The resulting plasma power requirements are reduced by 10-30% from a constant density startup. For beam energies between 100 and 200 keV, the power needed to heat the plasma does not decrease significantly as beam energy is increased. This is due to reduced ion heating, more power in the fractional energy components, and rising power supply requirements as beam energy increases

  20. The prosa methodology for scenario development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grupa, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper a methodology for scenario development is proposed. The method is developed in an effort to convince ourselves (and others) that all conceivable future developments of a waste repository have been covered. To be able to assess all conceivable future developments, the method needs to be comprehensive. To convince us and others the method should be structured in such a way that the treatment of each conceivable future development is traceable. The methodology is currently being applied to two Dutch disposal designs. Preliminary results show that the elaborated method functions better than the original method. However, some elements in the method will need further refinement. (author)

  1. Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

    2017-02-15

    During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

  2. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  3. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  4. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    combinations of waste recycling, biological treatment, incineration, mechanical–biological treatment and landfilling. The purpose is to compare waste management on a system level and to indentify the steps and treatments within the system contributing the most to the environmental performance of waste...... and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...

  5. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-01-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario

  6. TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA PROGENITORS AND CHEMICAL ENRICHMENT IN HYDRODYNAMICAL SIMULATIONS. I. THE SINGLE-DEGENERATE SCENARIO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiménez, Noelia [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of St. Andrews, North Haugh, St. Andrews, KY16 9SS, Scotland (United Kingdom); Tissera, Patricia B. [Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio (IAFE, CONICET-UBA), CC. 67 Suc. 28, C1428ZAA, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Matteucci, Francesca, E-mail: nj22@st-andrews.ac.uk [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita’ di Trieste, Via G. B. Tiepolo, 11, I-34100, Trieste (Italy)

    2015-09-10

    The nature of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) progenitors remains uncertain. This is a major issue for galaxy evolution models since both chemical and energetic feedback plays a major role in the gas dynamics, star formation, and therefore the overall stellar evolution. The progenitor models for the SNe Ia available in the literature propose different distributions for regulating the explosion times of these events. These functions are known as the delay time distributions (DTDs). This work is the first one in a series of papers aiming at studying five different DTDs for SNe Ia. Here we implement and analyze the single-degenerate (SD) scenario in galaxies dominated by a rapid quenching of the star formation, displaying the majority of the stars concentrated in the bulge component. We find a good fit to both the present observed SN Ia rates in spheroidal-dominated galaxies and the [O/Fe] ratios shown by the bulge of the Milky Way. Additionally, the SD scenario is found to reproduce a correlation between the specific SN Ia rate and the specific star formation rate (sSFR), which closely resembles the observational trend, at variance with previous works. Our results suggest that SN Ia observations in galaxies with very low and very high sSFRs can help to impose more stringent constraints on the DTDs and therefore on SN Ia progenitors.

  7. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Ten Haaf

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST results indicate that computed tomography (CT lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria.This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP, Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars, and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars per life-year gained

  8. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  9. Swine-Flu Plans Put E-Learning in the Spotlight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Michelle R.; Ash, Katie

    2009-01-01

    Last school year, many educators were caught unprepared when schools closed in response to cases of swine flu. This time around, both the federal government and school districts are putting specific online-learning measures in place to get ready for possible closures or waves of teacher and student absences because of a flu outbreak. To prepare…

  10. Case Study: Puttin' on the Ritz: How to Put Science into Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herreid, Clyde Freeman

    2017-01-01

    There are multiple ways to put science into a case. This column provides original articles on innovations in case study teaching, assessment of the method, as well as case studies with teaching notes. This month's issue discusses different ways of presenting science in case studies.

  11. On the Perpetual American Put Options for Level Dependent Volatility Models with Jumps

    OpenAIRE

    Bayraktar, Erhan

    2007-01-01

    We prove that the perpetual American put option price of level dependent volatility model with compound Poisson jumps is convex and is the classical solution of its associated quasi-variational inequality, that it is $C^2$ except at the stopping boundary and that it is $C^1$ everywhere (i.e. the smooth pasting condition always holds).

  12. Clipboard: Putting T cells to sleep: a new paradigm for immune ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2006-11-13

    Nov 13, 2006 ... Home; Journals; Journal of Biosciences; Volume 31; Issue 5. Clipboard: Putting T cells to sleep: a new paradigm for immune evasion by persistent viruses. Shweta Dubey Shahid Jameel. Volume 31 Issue 5 December 2006 pp 497-501 ...

  13. Lurking on the Internet: A Small-Group Assignment that Puts a Human Face on Psychopathology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowman, Joseph; Judge, Abigail M.; Wiss, Charles

    2010-01-01

    Lurking on the Internet aims to put a human face on psychopathology for the abnormal psychology course. Student groups are assigned major diagnostic categories and instructed to search the Internet for discussion forums, individual blogs, or YouTube videos where affected individuals discuss their symptoms and lives. After discussing the ethics of…

  14. Will the Convention on Biological Diversity put an end to biological control?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenteren, van J.C.; Cock, M.J.W.; Brodeur, J.; Barratt, B.I.P.; Bigler, F.; Bolckmans, K.; Haas, F.; Mason, P.G.; Parra, J.R.P.

    2011-01-01

    Will the Convention on Biological Diversity put an end to biological control? Under the Convention on Biological Diversity countries have sovereign rights over their genetic resources. Agreements governing the access to these resources and the sharing of the benefits arising from their use need to

  15. From third degree to third generation interrogation strategies: putting science into the art of criminal interviewing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    tacitly suggest that a confession is the fastest and best way to end the interrogation .73 71 Ibid...Kelly, and Miller found approximately 45 percent of civilian interrogators use it as well.292 Because this percentage suggests the technique is...TO THIRD-GENERATION INTERROGATION STRATEGIES: PUTTING SCIENCE INTO THE ART OF CRIMINAL INTERVIEWING by Desmond S. O’Neill March 2017

  16. "Putting My Man Face on": A Grounded Theory of College Men's Gender Identity Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Keith E.; Jones, Susan R.

    2009-01-01

    The theory that emerged from this constructivist grounded theory study of 10 college men's experiences depicts their gender identity as developed through constant interaction with society's expectations of them as men. In order to try to meet these perceived expectations, participants described putting on a performance that was like wearing a mask…

  17. Effects of physical randomness training on virtual and laboratory golf putting performance in novices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pataky, T C; Lamb, P F

    2018-06-01

    External randomness exists in all sports but is perhaps most obvious in golf putting where robotic putters sink only 80% of 5 m putts due to unpredictable ball-green dynamics. The purpose of this study was to test whether physical randomness training can improve putting performance in novices. A virtual random-physics golf-putting game was developed based on controlled ball-roll data. Thirty-two subjects were assigned a unique randomness gain (RG) ranging from 0.1 to 2.0-times real-world randomness. Putter face kinematics were measured in 5 m laboratory putts before and after five days of virtual training. Performance was quantified using putt success rate and "miss-adjustment correlation" (MAC), the correlation between left-right miss magnitude and subsequent right-left kinematic adjustments. Results showed no RG-success correlation (r = -0.066, p = 0.719) but mildly stronger correlations with MAC for face angle (r = -0.168, p = 0.358) and clubhead path (r = -0.302, p = 0.093). The strongest RG-MAC correlation was observed during virtual training (r = -0.692, p golf putting kinematics. Adaptation to external physical randomness during virtual training may therefore help golfers adapt to external randomness in real-world environments.

  18. Don't Get Rode Hard and Put Away Wet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galloway, Robin

    2012-01-01

    Back in the old days, some folks reckoned an equine was just a disposable tool to get their jobs done. They might ride a horse hard, so it was sweaty, panting, and broken down. When done they would throw it out to pasture without proper grooming. This is probably the origin of the expression to "get rode hard and put away wet." As…

  19. Web life: Faraday's Cage Is Where You Put Schrödinger's Cat

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Faraday's Cage Is Where You Put Schrödinger's Cat (FCIWYPSC) is a blog written by Cherish Bauer-Reich, who is pursuing a PhD in geophysics at the University of Minnesota while also working part-time as a research engineer at North Dakota State University (NDSU), some 250 miles away.

  20. A note on the pricing of the perpetual American capped power put option

    OpenAIRE

    Sakagami, Yoshitaka

    2012-01-01

    We give an explicit solution to the perpetual American capped power put option pricing problem in the Black-Scholes-Merton Model. The approach is mainly based on free-boundary formulation and verification. For completeness we also give an explicit solution to the perpetual American standard power (≥1) option pricing problem.

  1. Putting a Price Tag on the Common Core: How Much Will Smart Implementation Cost?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Patrick; Regenstein, Elliot

    2012-01-01

    The Common Core State Standards (CCSS) for English language arts and mathematics represent a sea change in standards-based reform and their implementation is the movement's next--and greatest--challenge. Yet, while most states have now set forth implementation plans, these tomes seldom address the crucial matter of cost. Putting a Price Tag on the…

  2. Flipping the Educational System: Putting Teachers at the Heart of Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneyber, René

    2014-01-01

    This article describes an initiative led by two classroom teachers from the Netherlands to put teachers back at the centre of the educational process. The article argues that the educational system has become inverted, with those who are most influential (teachers) having the least opportunity to influence. The challenge is to "flip the…

  3. Access to data and material for research: Putting empirical evidence into perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez, V.

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this article is to put into critical perspective the empirical findings on secrecy and withholding in research. In other words, by taking existing empirical literature into account, it is intended that a crucial question is answered: Is secrecy and withholding in research harmful or

  4. ALICE TPC gas system is the first of the LHC experiments to be put on line

    CERN Document Server

    Maximilien Brice

    2006-01-01

    Picture 01 : the Physics Department's DT1 gas systems team in their laboratory. Picture 02 : Chilo Garabatos (ALICE) and Stefan Haider (PH-DT1-GS) in front of the gas system for the ALICE TPC which has just been put on line.

  5. Regularity of the exercise boundary for American put options on assets with discrete dividends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jourdain, B.; Vellekoop, M.

    2009-01-01

    We analyze the regularity of the optimal exercise boundary for the American Put option when the underlying asset pays a discrete dividend at a known time td during the lifetime of the option. The ex-dividend asset price process is assumed to follow Black-Scholes dynamics and the dividend amount is a

  6. Global warming: Climate scenarios and international agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, T.E.; Parry, M.L.

    1991-01-01

    The potential impacts of climatic change on international agriculture are summarized, drawing on results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change impacts working group. The four different climate change scenarios used for investigating impacts: historical studies, artificial scenarios, analogues, and general circulation models, are briefly reviewed. Climate change will affect agriculture in three ways: direct effects of increased carbon dioxide concentration, effects of altered weather patterns, and secondary effects on social and economic situations. The effect of increased carbon dioxide concentration is uncertain, but potentially will enhance plant growth and water use efficiency. The sensitivity of grain maize to incremental changes in annual temperature is described, with the suitable zone expanding from the middle of Europe to southern Scandinavia. Potential damage from insect pests may increase under warmer climates, with northerly movement of insect breeding grounds. Temperature increases are likely to lengthen the growing season where temperature is a limiting factor, especially at higher lattitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Higher temperatures, shorter periods of grain filling, and reduced winter chilling will reduce potential yields in current core grain-growing areas, and changing moisture regimes will shift agricultural patterns. The horn of Africa and parts of western Africa are likely to suffer enhanced food supply vulnerability. 16 refs., 4 figs

  7. SKB/TVO ice age scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlbom, K.; Aeikaes, T.; Ericsson, L.O.

    1991-06-01

    Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the time-span considered for the disposal of nuclear fuel. Based on the present status of knowledge, this report discusses when future ice ages will occur and the possible changes in the geosphere that might be of importance for repository performance. The report is intended to be used as a basis when developing scenarios for safety analysis of final repository for spent nuclear fuel. Both the ACLIN and Imbrie and Imbrie models suggest stadials (glaciations) at c. 20000, 60000 and 100000 years from now. The ACLIN model also suggests a glaciation period around 5000 years ahead. The next interglacial period will occur at c. 75000 years, according to the Imbrie and Imbrie model, while the ACLIN model suggests that interglacial conditions will not appear until 125000 years form now. Other models strongly support the 60000 year glaciation event. To some extent there is also support for the 20000 and 5000 year events. For the purpose of the SKB/TVO scenario it is suggested that smaller or large glaciations will occur at 5000, 20000 and 60000 years form now. Following the last glaciation, interglacial conditions will prevail at 75000 years. Thus after the first glaciation (5000 years) this is the earliest time when most part of Sweden and Finland will once again be resettled by man. (25 refs.)

  8. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R; Hollmann, R; Mueller, J; Stuhlmann, R [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1998-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  9. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  10. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  11. Hybrid Scenarios, Transmedia Storytelling, Expanded Ethnography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Domínguez Figaredo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The transformation of social scenarios due to the impact of digital technologies, introduces new possibilities for ethnographic research. Once the initial approaches focused on the dichotomy of “physical-virtual spaces” have been overcame, it comes a stage of maturity that allows the ethnographers to open new avenues for conceptual and analytical methodology applied in techno-social scenarios. This article discusses the evolution of some key dimensions of ethnography according to the new social and epistemological framework. The discussion is based on the analysis of expanded practices that take place in the new techno-social spaces, defined as hybrid environments, where technologies are embedded in the physical life of the subjects. On the one hand, we consider the production of actions based on the assembly of ideas, meanings and objects through digital mediation devices. It is also analysed the transmedia component of the narratives that make sense to allow the experiments. Underlying the analysis, some elements are introduced for discussion on the scope of expanded ethnographic research, the influence of transmedia phenomenon in the notion of “field” and the methods for determining the significance through digital storytelling.

  12. Probabilistic approach relative to fire scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabot, Jean-Luc

    1998-01-01

    The main objective of this thesis is to develop a calculation method of the occurring probability of the fire scenarios (detection, setting of the intervention, extinction) taking into account the size and the impact of the fire on the surroundings. This new method is called 'hybrid simulation'. It includes in a unique modelling the processing of continuous and discrete phenomenon. Moreover, to correctly represent fire scenarios, it is necessary not to take only into account the 'continuous' growing of the fire itself but of also 'discrete' events like detection, fire fighting and extinction, human behaviour and related faults. For that purpose we couple a code modelling the physical aspects of the fire to Petri nets which is able to model these 'discrete' events, this coupling consists of driving the 'continuous' model by the occurring of the 'discrete' events. This new technique which can be used to cover 'discrete' and 'continuous' events in a single calculation represents a solution to dynamic reliability calculation problems, for which there is a continuously increasing demand for analysing reliability, availability of production and maintainability of complex industrial systems. (author) [fr

  13. Impact of Transmutation Scenarios on Fuel Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saturnin, A.; Duret, B.; Allou, A.; Jasserand, F.; Fillastre, E.; Giffard, F.X.; Chabert, C.; Caron-Charles, M.; Garzenne, C.; Laugier, F.

    2015-01-01

    Minor actinides transmutation scenarios have been studied in the frame of the French Sustainable Radioactive Waste Management Act of 28 June 2006. Transmutation scenarios supposed the introduction of a sodium-cooled fast reactor fleet using homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes for the minor actinides. Americium, neptunium and curium (MA) or americium alone (Am) can be transmuted together in a homogeneous way embedded in FR-MOX fuel or incorporated in MA or Am-Bearing radial Blankets (MABB or AmBB). MA transmutation in Accelerator Driven System has also been studied while plutonium is being recycled in SFR. Assessments and comparisons of these advanced cycles have been performed considering technical and economic criteria. Transportation needs for fresh and used transmutation fuels is one of these criteria. Transmutation fuels have specific characteristics in terms of thermal load and neutron emissions. Thermal, radiation and criticality constraints have been taken into account in this study to suggest cask concepts for routine conditions of transport, to estimate the number of assemblies to be transported in a cask and the number of annual transports. Comparison with the no transmutation option, i.e. management of uranium and plutonium in SFRs, is also presented. Regarding these matters, no high difficulties appear for assemblies with limited content of Am (homogeneous or heterogeneous recycling modes). When fuels contain curium, technical transport uncertainties increase because of the important heat release requiring dividing fresh fuels and technological innovations development (MABB and ADS). (authors)

  14. Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

    2017-12-01

    Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  16. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  17. CP Violation in Heavy MSSM Higgs Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Carena, M; Lee, J S; Pilaftsis, A; Wagner, C E M

    2016-01-01

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M_S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M_H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG...

  18. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  19. Putting Order into Our Universe: The Concept of Blended Learning—A Methodology within the Concept-based Terminology Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joana Fernandes

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at discussing the advantages of a methodology design grounded on a concept-based approach to Terminology applied to the most prominent scenario of current Higher Education: blended learning. Terminology is a discipline that aims at representing, describing and defining specialized knowledge through language, putting order into our universe (Nuopponen, 2011. Concepts, as elements of the structure of knowledge (Sager, 1990 emerge as a complex research object. Can they be found in language? A concept-based approach to Terminology implies a clear-cut view of the role of language in terminological work: though language is postulated as being a fundamental tool to grasp, describe and organize knowledge, an isomorphic relationship between language and knowledge cannot be taken for granted. In other words, the foundational premise of a concept-based approach is that there is no one-to-one correspondence between atomic elements of knowledge and atomic elements of linguistic expression. This is why a methodological approach to Terminology merely based upon specialized text research is regarded as biased (Costa, 2013. As a consequence, we argue that interactional strategies between terminologist and domain expert deserve particular research attention. To our mind, the key to concept-based terminological work is to carry out a concept analysis of data gathered from a specialised text corpora combined with an elicitation process of the tacit knowledge and concept-oriented discursive negotiation. Following such view, we put forward a methodology to answer the question: how is blended learning defined in the Post-Bologna scenario? Even though there are numerous high-quality models and practical descriptions for its implementation (similarly to other concepts related to distance learning, the need to understand, demarcate and harmonize the concept of blended learning against the current Higher Education background results from the premise that

  20. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

  1. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  2. Performance and Kinematic Differences in Putting Between Healthy and Disabled Elite Golfers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gryc Tomáš

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Golfers with disability are limited in the execution of the full golf swing, but their performance in putting may be comparable because this stroke does not demand significant strength, balance and range of motion. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare putting performance, kinetic and kinematic consistency between golfers with different disabilities and healthy athletes. The participants consisted of three disabled athletes (perinatal cerebral palsy, multiple sclerosis, below knee lower limb amputee and three healthy golfers (age 34 ± 4.5 years, body height 178 ± 3.3 cm, body mass 83 ± 6.2 kg. The golfers’ movements were recorded by active 3D markers for kinematic analyses; the subjects performed 10 trials of a 6 m putting task while standing on separate force platforms placed under each lower limb. Putting performance was measured by the distance of the final ball position to the centre of the hole. ANOVA analyses did not show any differences in clubhead speed and total ball distance from the hole. The consistency of those two parameters expressed by the coefficient of variation (CV was CV = 0.5% or better in both groups for clubhead speed and ranged from CV = 0.40 to 0.61% in healthy and CV = 0.21 to 0.55% in disabled athletes for total error distance. The main effect ANOVA showed differences in weight shift, hip and shoulder kinematics (p < 0.05 between healthy players and all players with disability. All disabled athletes shifted their weight toward the healthy side (towards the healthy lower limb and alternated the end of the swing. The player with below knee amputation had the lowest range of motion in the shoulder joint during the putting stroke. The players with perinatal cerebral palsy and multiple sclerosis had the largest range of motion in the hips. Putting performance of disabled golfers was similar to healthy athletes. During training of disabled players, coaches should pay attention to the specificity of a

  3. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  4. Heterogeneous Deployment to Meet Traffic Demand in a Realistic LTE Urban Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coletti, Claudio; Hu, Liang; Nguyen, Huan Cong

    2012-01-01

    growth of mo-bile broadband traffic. Emphasis is put on how to optimally as-sign the spectrum for the different networks layers in an evolved HetNet including outdoor and indoor small cells. The study is conducted for a “Hot-Zone” scenario, i.e. a high-traffic area within a realistic dense urban...... performance with a minimum user data rate of 1 Mbps is achieved when deploying small cells on dedicated channels rather than co-channel deployment. Fur-thermore, the joint pico and femto deployment turns out to be the right trade-off between increased base station density and en-hanced network capacity....

  5. Measurement-based Channel Characterization for 5G Wireless Communications on Campus Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mi, Yang; He, Ruisi; Ai, Bo

    2017-01-01

    The fifth generation (5G) communication has been a hotspot of research in recent years, and both research institutions and industrial enterprises put a lot of interests for 5G communication at some new frequency bands. In this paper, we investigate the radio channels of 5G communications below 6...... GHz according to the requirements and scenarios of 5G communication. Channel measurements were conducted on campus of Beijing Jiaotong University, China at two key optional frequency bands below 6 GHz. By using the measured data, we analyzed key channel parameters at 460MHz and 3.5GHz, such as power...... delay profile, path loss exponent, shadow fading, and delay spread. The results are helpful for the 5G communication system design....

  6. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  7. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

    2008-01-01

    ...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

  8. Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

  9. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  10. Future Scenarios of the South China Sea Maritime Disputes

    OpenAIRE

    Shee, Poon Kim

    2014-01-01

    The focus of this paper is to analyze three future scenarios in the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. These namely are No War Scenario, Impasse Scenario and Peace Scenario. Ultimately, the way forward towards a viable solution to resolving the South China Sea maritime disputes between China and other claimant states depends on the political wisdom, will and determination of the disputing states. Lofty nationalistic aspirations have to be tempered with a degree of flexibility and pragm...

  11. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  12. Interaction protocols for cooperative merging and lane reduction scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Semsar-Kazerooni, E.; Ploeg, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the interaction protocols developed for execution of two common scenarios in daily traffic using cooperative automated vehicles. The first proposed scenario addresses merging of a (semi-)automated car on a highway within a platoon of (semi-)automated vehicles. The second scenario

  13. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  14. User constraints for reliable user-defined smart home scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Nielsen, Michael Kvist; Pedersen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Defining control scenarios in a smart home is a difficult task for end users. In particular, one concern is that user-defined scenarios could lead to unsafe or undesired state of the system. To help them explore scenario specifications, we propose in this paper a system that enables specification...

  15. Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nygren, Emma; Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel. Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post-Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time, aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several percent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.

  16. Energy-Climate Scenarios: An Adjustment after the Economic Crisis, Fukushima, Durban and... Shale Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana; Peytral, Pierre-Olivier; Simon, Jean-Christophe

    2012-01-01

    In an article published in these pages in 2011 (no. 373), Patrick Criqui presented a series of scenarios on possible energy and climate trends, taking note of the agreement on climate change signed in late 2009 at the Copenhagen Conference. He pointed out that a paradigm shift was on the cards, which would mean less use of the top-down approach - with national objectives set as a function of international objectives formulated at major conferences - and greater implementation of a bottom-up logic based on national policies put in place in the energy field and as part of the battle against global warming. On the basis of this latter logic, the authors were able to elaborate scenarios at a world level. A few days before the publication of that article, the Fukushima accident occurred in japan, lending fresh impetus to the energy debate in most of the countries using nuclear power. Does that event, combined with the persistence of the debt crisis, the increased extraction of unconventional hydrocarbons (shale oil and gas ) and the fact that international negotiations on climate change (Durban) have merely marked time, modify the projected scenarios -and, if so, to what extent ? Patrick Criqui, Silvana Mima, Pierre-Olivier Peytral and jean-Christophe Simon consider this question in detail here. They begin by examining the impact of these recent events and developments on the current energy and climate situation. Then, after reminding us of the four world energy scenarios (to a time-horizon of 2030-2050) that were developed in 2009 (together with two 'discontinuity scenarios'), they propose an updating that takes account of the perceived consequences of the change of context, stressing two crucial scenarios in particular: the probable (leading to warming in the order of 4 deg. C) and the desirable (limiting warming to 2 deg. C). Lastly, they propose various levers aimed at 'making the desirable trajectory possible' (technological agreements, economic instruments

  17. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  18. Geoprospective: from the acquired data, to the scenarios; Geoprospective: des donnees acquises, aux scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escalier des Orres, P [CEA Centre d` Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. d` Evaluation de Surete; Blanc, P L [CEA Centre d` Etudes de Fontenay-aux-Roses, 92 (France). Dept. de Protection de l` Environnement et des Installations

    1994-06-01

    The present paper discusses the relationships between the French regulatory safety rule for radwaste deep disposal (RFS no. III.2.f), the geological (external geodynamics) data available when the rule was discussed, and the present geoprospective studies and scenarios to be taken into account in the safety assessment of an underground disposal site. (authors). 11 refs., 3 figs.

  19. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... short period of time. The set-up and the results were discussed with a few experts from the Danish Ministry of the Environment and its value as discussion input recognized. The approach offers a lot of possibilities to discuss urban growth and spatial planning policies, even in a country with a strong...

  20. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedermaier, Max; Reuter, Martin

    2006-01-01

    The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  1. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  2. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  3. Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

    1984-05-01

    This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well

  4. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change......Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...

  5. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  6. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  7. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  8. Analysis of the 2011 Negawatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, Claude; Bacher, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    This document discusses the 2011 Negawatt scenario which, through a 'sobriety and efficiency' approach, divides by two the final energy consumption, and nearly by three the primary energy demand. This decrease concerns all activity sectors, but more particularly the housing and office building sector by means of an extended insulation programme. In the transport sector, the decrease is obtained by a reduction of use, but above all, by technological advances. Fossil energies are nearly discarded. The strong increase of renewable energies is mainly due to biomass which is used for heating purposes, but essentially under the form of methane which replaces oil in transports. Wind and photovoltaic energy ensures 28% of primary energy production and about 60% of electricity production. The feasibility of these measures is analyzed

  9. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niedermaier Max

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  10. Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auvinen, A.; Jokiniemi, J.K.; Laehde, A.; Routamo, T.; Lundstroem, P.; Tuomisto, H.; Dienstbier, J.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.; Dehbi, A.; Slootman, M.; Herranz, L.; Peyres, V.; Polo, J.

    2005-01-01

    The steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios project was carried out in the EU 5th framework programme in the field of nuclear safety during years 2000-2002. The first objective of the project was to generate a comprehensive database on fission product retention in a steam generator. The second objective was to verify and develop predictive models to support accident management interventions in steam generator tube rupture sequences, which either directly lead to severe accident conditions or are induced by other sequences leading to severe accidents. The models developed for fission product retention were to be included in severe accident codes. In addition, it was shown that existing models for turbulent deposition, which is the dominating deposition mechanism in dry conditions and at high flow rates, contain large uncertainties. The results of the project are applicable to various pressurised water reactors, including vertical steam generators (western PWR) and horizontal steam generators (VVER)

  11. Integration of a modeling task in water policy design - Example of a prospective scenarios approach on an agricultural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, P.; Raimbault, T.; Durand, P.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Salmon-Monviola, J.; Masson, V.; Cordier, M. O.

    2010-05-01

    To meet the objectives of the Water Framework Directive in terms of nitrate pollution of surface water, numerous mitigation options have been proposed. To support stakeholders' decision prior to the implementation of regulations, scenario analysis by models can be used as a prospective approach. The work developed an extensive virtual experiment design from an initial basic requirement of catchment managers. Specific objectives were (1) to test the ability of a distributed model (TNT2) to simulate hydrology and hydrochemistry on a watershed with a high diversity of production systems, (2) to analyse a large set of scenarios and their effects on water quality and (3) to propose an effective mode of communication between research scientists and catchment managers. The focus of the scenario, in accord with catchment managers' requirement, is put on winter catch crop (CC). 5 conditions of implantation in rotations, 3 CC durations and 2 CC harvest modes were tested. CC is favoured by managers because of its simplicity to implement on fields and its relative low influence on farm strategy. Calibration and validation periods were run from 1998 to 2007 and scenario simulation period from 2007 to 2020. Results have been provided, for each scenario, by compartment (soil, atmosphere, plant uptake, water) but especially in the form of nitrogen mass balance at the catchment scale. The scenarios were ranked by integrating positive and negative effects of each measure. This 3-step-process: translation of a simple stakeholder question into extensive set of scenarios (complexification) - modeling process and data analysis - restitution to catchments' manager into a simple integrative form (simplification), gives an operational tool for decision support. In term of water quality, the best improvements in nitrate concentrations at the outlet reached a decrease of 0.8 mgL-1 compared to a "business as usual" scenario and were achieved by exporting the CC residue, by extending CC

  12. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  13. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  15. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  16. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  17. Intercode comparison of SBO scenario for AHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivastava, A.; Kumar, Rajesh; Chatterjee, B.; Vijayan, P.K.

    2015-01-01

    This paper outlines the assessment of station blackout scenario for AHWR using last version of the French best estimate computer code CATHARE2/V2.5 2 and its comparison with RELAP5/mod3.2 findings. First, it explains the modelling of main heat transport system of AHWR and isolation Condenser loop along with GDWP in CATHARE2 followed by thermal hydraulic safety assessment of station blackout scenario and comparison of predictions with RELAP5 findings. The proposed Advanced Heavy Water Reactor is a 920 MWth Thorium based vertical pressure tube type boiling light water cooled and heavy water moderated reactor. One of the important passive design features of this reactor is that the heat removal is achieved through natural circulation of primary coolant at all allowed power levels with no primary coolant pumps.The prolonged SBO has been analyzed for AHWR using best estimate code CATHARE and results are compared with already available results of RELAP5 code. The ICs are able to remove decay heat with the help of GDWP and maintain core temperatures well with-in the limit. Decay heat is removed passively by GDWP initially by sensible heating and later by boil off as seen in long term calculation done with RELAP5. It has been found in that analysis, IC system is capable to remove decay heat for more than 7 days. The decay heat removal through IC path along with passive moderator and end shield cooling keeps the integrity of different system and maintains the core temperature well below the acceptance limit

  18. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A.

    2005-07-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  19. A world of differences, the normative EOS-scenarios. Final report of a study to found the normative scenarios of the project Energy research scenarios of the Energy Study Centre (ECN, Petten, Netherlands). Een wereld van verschil, de normatieve EOS-scenario's. Eindrapport van een studie ter onderbouwing van de normatieve scenario's van het project Energie Onderzoek Scenario's van het Energie Studie Centrum (ECN, Petten)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dinkelman, G.

    1987-11-01

    Three competing political and economical 'concepts of control' which underlie three normative energy-scenarios are described. The aim of the literature-research carried out for this report was to make the original scenarios more recognizable, and to find out which groups could be expected to support them. The concepts of control bear the names 'Dynamic and growth', 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' and 'Shared development'. They can be seen, so is argued, as competing perspectives on a so-called 'post-Fordist' world. The three concepts of control differ on what they see as common interests and the way they should be looked after. Topics in the description are: the desired rate of European political and economical integration, the borders of Europe, Europe's position in the world, the acceptance of new technologies, the goals they should be used for, and perceived relationships between energy, environment and economy. The scenarios show what happens if these three concepts of control become hegemonic without being forced to compromises. For all three scenarios a short sketch is given of the corresponding dominating energy- and environmental policy and of future relationships within OECD and between OECD on the one hand and NIC's/LDC's on the other. The conclusion of the report is that the ideological differences between the neoliberalism of 'Dynamic and growth' and the green, direct-democracy-politics of 'Shared development' are not as big as they were in the seventies. Especially on the new policy-areas like technology, energy and environment they get closer. But this does not mean that the concept of 'Dirigation and blockbuilding' can be put completely aside. Its goal of economic equality and its emphasis on government dirigation may become more attractive again if it comes out that market regulation leads to a dual society and that it was state-intervention (by

  20. ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laqua H.P.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

  1. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  2. Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios; Syrie, Iran: et maintenant? Trois scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tertrais, Bruno [Fondation pour la recherche strategique, 4 bis rue des Patures 75016 Paris (France)

    2013-10-15

    Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

  3. Organizations putting in place in case of accident in a french nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noc, B.; Queniart, D.

    1987-01-01

    In case of accident entraining radiological consequences on or near the site of nuclear power reactor, organizations are putting in place. These organizations include as well as side of operating authority (generally Electricite de France) or public organizations including safety organizations (Service Central de Surete des Installations Nucleaires, Institut de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire), one local organization and one centralized national organization. Informations exchange and coordination necessary between these organizations are governed by protocols. These protocols include particularly, the problems of mobilizing experts and of dealing with the saturation of normal telecommunications channels. The lessons acquired during accident simulation exercises carried out in recent years are progressively put in place in these protocols [fr

  4. Putting a spin on circulating reference, or how to rediscover the scientific subject.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochan, Jeff

    2015-02-01

    Bruno Latour claims to have shown that a Kantian model of knowledge, which he describes as seeking to unite a disembodied transcendental subject with an inaccessible thing-in-itself, is dramatically falsified by empirical studies of science in action. Instead, Latour puts central emphasis on scientific practice, and replaces this Kantian model with a model of "circulating reference." Unfortunately, Latour's alternative schematic leaves out the scientific subject. I repair this oversight through a simple mechanical procedure. By putting a slight spin on Latour's diagrammatic representation of his theory, I discover a new space for a post-Kantian scientific subject, a subject brilliantly described by Ludwik Fleck. The neglected subjectivities and ceaseless practices of science are thus re-united. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Performance of some numerical Laplace inversion methods on American put option formula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Octaviano, I.; Yuniar, A. R.; Anisa, L.; Surjanto, S. D.; Putri, E. R. M.

    2018-03-01

    Numerical inversion approaches of Laplace transform is used to obtain a semianalytic solution. Some of the mathematical inversion methods such as Durbin-Crump, Widder, and Papoulis can be used to calculate American put options through the optimal exercise price in the Laplace space. The comparison of methods on some simple functions is aimed to know the accuracy and parameters which used in the calculation of American put options. The result obtained is the performance of each method regarding accuracy and computational speed. The Durbin-Crump method has an average error relative of 2.006e-004 with computational speed of 0.04871 seconds, the Widder method has an average error relative of 0.0048 with computational speed of 3.100181 seconds, and the Papoulis method has an average error relative of 9.8558e-004 with computational speed of 0.020793 seconds.

  6. Putting Together a Blue Sky: Laying the Foundation for Staff Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Searcy, Jeny

    2012-01-01

    Evaluation time can be like putting together a 5,000-piece jigsaw puzzle that is all sky--what, exactly, is the point? When all is said and done, one ends up with a big blue blob--nothing to show for all the effort. However, it doesn't have to be that way. Performance reviews can and should be an effective means of communication for both parties…

  7. Where to put your money to get their money: a bank advertising awareness study

    OpenAIRE

    James B. Bexley; Karen Sherrill

    2017-01-01

    Commercial banks have many options when selecting an advertising medium. Where should a bank put its money in order to obtain the highest return? Should this medium change based on the target audience? This paper examines a number of different mediums for bank advertising and analyzes by age and by gender the efficacy of each. The authors administered a survey to over three hundred participants of varying ages asking them if they have seen bank advertisements on television, social media or th...

  8. The Posture of Putting One's Palms Together Modulates Visual Motion Event Perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Godai; Gyoba, Jiro

    2018-02-01

    We investigated the effect of an observer's hand postures on visual motion perception using the stream/bounce display. When two identical visual objects move across collinear horizontal trajectories toward each other in a two-dimensional display, observers perceive them as either streaming or bouncing. In our previous study, we found that when observers put their palms together just below the coincidence point of the two objects, the percentage of bouncing responses increased, mainly depending on the proprioceptive information from their own hands. However, it remains unclear if the tactile or haptic (force) information produced by the postures mostly influences the stream/bounce perception. We solved this problem by changing the tactile and haptic information on the palms of the hands. Experiment 1 showed that the promotion of bouncing perception was observed only when the posture of directly putting one's palms together was used, while there was no effect when a brick was sandwiched between the participant's palms. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the strength of force used when putting the palms together had no effect on increasing bounce perception. Our findings indicate that the hands-induced bounce effect derives from the tactile information produced by the direct contact between both palms.

  9. Condom use errors and problems among young women who put condoms on their male partners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Stephanie A; Graham, Cynthia A; Yarber, William L; Crosby, Richard A

    2003-01-01

    To comprehensively assess condom use errors and problems reported by women who apply condoms, given the lack of data on this aspect of condom use. Data from a questionnaire survey, using a 3-month recall period, was analyzed for a convenience sample of 102 college women who put condoms on their male partner(s) for sex (vaginal, anal, or oral). The percentage of the sample reporting that an error or problem occurred at least once is presented. Fifty-one percent put the condom on after starting sex, and 15% took the condom off before ending sex. Forty-eight percent wanted a condom but didn't have one, 46% did not leave space at the tip, 30% put the condom on wrong side up and had to flip the condom over, 26% did not use a lubricant, and 15% wanted a water-based lubricant and did not have any available. Twenty-five percent reported that their partners lost erections in association with condom use. Twenty-eight percent reported breakage, slippage, or both. Higher error scores were found for those who reported: 1) breakage or slippage, 2) partner erection problems, 3) use of another form of contraception, and 4) not having received instruction in correct condom use. Educating women as well as men about correct condom use, in addition to promoting consistent condom use, may be an important public health strategy.

  10. Resolution of low-velocity control in golf putting differentiates professionals from amateurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Yumiko; Fujii, Keisuke; Miura, Akito; Yamamoto, Yuji

    2017-07-01

    It is difficult for humans to apply small amounts of force precisely during motor control. However, experts who have undergone extended training are thought to be able to control low-velocity movement with precision. We investigated the resolution of motor control in golf putting. A total of 10 professional and 10 high-level amateur golfers participated. Putting distances were 0.6-3.3 m, in increments of 0.3 m. We measured the impact velocity and the club-face angle at impact, and the acceleration profile of the downswing. The professionals showed significantly smaller coefficients of variation with respect to impact velocity and smaller root mean square errors in relation to acceleration profiles than did the amateurs. To examine the resolution of motor control for impact velocity, we investigated intra-participant differences in the impact velocity of the club head at two adjacent distances. We found that professionals had higher velocity precision when putting small distance intervals than did amateurs. That is, professionals had higher resolution of low-velocity control than did high-level amateurs. Our results suggest that outstanding performance at a task involves the ability to recognise small distinctions and to produce appropriate movements.

  11. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  12. Evaluation of fuel cycle scenarios on MOX fuel recycling in PWRs and SFRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlier, B.; Caron-Charles, M.; Van Den Durpel, L. [AREVA, 1 place Jean Millier, Paris La Defense (France); Senentz, G. [AREVA, 33 rue La Lafayette, 75009 Paris (France); Serpantie, J.P. [AREVA, 10 rue Juliette Recamier, Lyon (France)

    2013-07-01

    Prospects on advanced fuel cycle scenario are considered for achieving a progressive integration of Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) technology within the current French Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) nuclear fleet, in a view to benefit from fissile material multi-recycling capability. A step by step process is envisioned, and emphasis is put on its potential implementation through the nuclear mass inventory calculations with the COSAC code. The overall time scale is not optimized. The first step, already implemented in several countries, the plutonium coming from the reprocessing of used Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuels is recycled into a small number of LWRs. The second step is the progressive introduction of the first SFRs, in parallel with the continuation of step 1. This second step lets to prepare the optimized multi recycling of MOX fuel which is considered in step 3. Step 3 is characterized by the introduction of a greater number of SFR and MOX management between EPR reactors and SFRs. In the final step 4, all the fleet is formed with SFRs. This study assesses the viability of each step of the overall scenario. The switch from one step to the other one could result from different constrains related to issues such as resources, waste, experience feedback, public acceptance, country policy, etc.

  13. Revising scenario map for plant management via interaction of stakeholders' intentions and constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohsawa, Yukio; Taya, Sayuri

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to put knowledge of plant safety together and make a map that will help to understand a system of plant and notice new links among components. This map, called the scenario map, can be used for aiding the chance discoveries - decision of various stakeholders of the system based on their awareness of latent dynamics underlying observed events. The trustworthiness of their analysis will be also reinforced by linking relevant data to the nodes and lines in the graph. In order to have stakeholders be aware of information missed in available data, we invented a method of workshop and moved forward with a rough map of plant safety. The first phase attempts to externalize differences in the bodies of knowledge of each participant. In the second, introducing Tsugo Roulette (TR) – the core component of this paper -, latent dynamics where physical and social causalities emerge is externalized. Then participants revise the scenario map based on their thoughts by the second phase, to finally evaluate the utility of nodes and lines in the graph. In accordance with each phase, participants in the workshop could exchange their tsugoes - views of intentions and constraints - and realize new links or nodes to be evaluated highly by experts in the corresponding domain. (author)

  14. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  15. Rapamycin combined with anti-CD45RB mAb and IL-10 or with G-CSF induces tolerance in a stringent mouse model of islet transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Gagliani

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A large pool of preexisting alloreactive effector T cells can cause allogeneic graft rejection following transplantation. However, it is possible to induce transplant tolerance by altering the balance between effector and regulatory T (Treg cells. Among the various Treg-cell types, Foxp3(+Treg and IL-10-producing T regulatory type 1 (Tr1 cells have frequently been associated with tolerance following transplantation in both mice and humans. Previously, we demonstrated that rapamycin+IL-10 promotes Tr1-cell-associated tolerance in Balb/c mice transplanted with C57BL/6 pancreatic islets. However, this same treatment was unsuccessful in C57BL/6 mice transplanted with Balb/c islets (classified as a stringent transplant model. We accordingly designed a protocol that would be effective in the latter transplant model by simultaneously depleting effector T cells and fostering production of Treg cells. We additionally developed and tested a clinically translatable protocol that used no depleting agent. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Diabetic C57BL/6 mice were transplanted with Balb/c pancreatic islets. Recipient mice transiently treated with anti-CD45RB mAb+rapamycin+IL-10 developed antigen-specific tolerance. During treatment, Foxp3(+Treg cells were momentarily enriched in the blood, followed by accumulation in the graft and draining lymph node, whereas CD4(+IL-10(+IL-4(- T (i.e., Tr1 cells localized in the spleen. In long-term tolerant mice, only CD4(+IL-10(+IL-4(- T cells remained enriched in the spleen and IL-10 was key in the maintenance of tolerance. Alternatively, recipient mice were treated with two compounds routinely used in the clinic (namely, rapamycin and G-CSF; this drug combination promoted tolerance associated with CD4(+IL-10(+IL-4(- T cells. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The anti-CD45RB mAb+rapamycin+IL-10 combined protocol promotes a state of tolerance that is IL-10 dependent. Moreover, the combination of rapamycin+G-CSF induces

  16. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  17. Four Scenarios of Malaysia-Indonesia Migration: From the Status Quo to the Wild Card Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Ladiqi, Suyatno; Bustami, Reevany; Nasruddin, Ellisha

    2017-01-01

    In the context of ASEAN, the number of migrants from Indonesia and Malaysia is the largest. Combining the regular and the irregular migrants, the estimates range from 1.8 million to 3 million people. It is incontrovertible that movement of such magnitude has its impacts, probably both positive and negative. This article aims at providing an analysis based on future scenarios. The purpose is not to make predictions but rather to chart possible paths of critical events that would lead to differ...

  18. Putting lexical constraints in context into the visual-world paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novick, Jared M; Thompson-Schill, Sharon L; Trueswell, John C

    2008-06-01

    Prior eye-tracking studies of spoken sentence comprehension have found that the presence of two potential referents, e.g., two frogs, can guide listeners toward a Modifier interpretation of Put the frog on the napkin... despite strong lexical biases associated with Put that support a Goal interpretation of the temporary ambiguity (Tanenhaus, M. K., Spivey-Knowlton, M. J., Eberhard, K. M. & Sedivy, J. C. (1995). Integration of visual and linguistic information in spoken language comprehension. Science, 268, 1632-1634; Trueswell, J. C., Sekerina, I., Hill, N. M. & Logrip, M. L. (1999). The kindergarten-path effect: Studying on-line sentence processing in young children. Cognition, 73, 89-134). This pattern is not expected under constraint-based parsing theories: cue conflict between the lexical evidence (which supports the Goal analysis) and the visuo-contextual evidence (which supports the Modifier analysis) should result in uncertainty about the intended analysis and partial consideration of the Goal analysis. We reexamined these put studies (Experiment 1) by introducing a response time-constraint and a spatial contrast between competing referents (a frog on a napkin vs. a frog in a bowl). If listeners immediately interpret on the... as the start of a restrictive modifier, then their eye movements should rapidly converge on the intended referent (the frog on something). However, listeners showed this pattern only when the phrase was unambiguously a Modifier (Put the frog that's on the...). Syntactically ambiguous trials resulted in transient consideration of the Competitor animal (the frog in something). A reading study was also run on the same individuals (Experiment 2) and performance was compared between the two experiments. Those individuals who relied heavily on lexical biases to resolve a complement ambiguity in reading (The man heard/realized the story had been...) showed increased sensitivity to both lexical and contextual constraints in the put-task; i

  19. Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

    2018-05-01

    Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

  20. Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios at CGNPC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, Min; Zhou, Zhou; Nie, Li Hong; Mao, Guo Ping; Hao, Si Xiong; Shen, Kang

    2008-01-01

    Established in 1994, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Co. (CGNPC) now owns two power stations GNPS and LNPS Phase I, with approximate 4000 MWe of installed capacity. With plant upgrades, advanced fuel management has been introduced into the two plants to improve the plant economical behavior with the high burnup fuel implemented. For the purpose of sustainable development, some preliminary studies on nuclear fuel cycle, especially on the back-end, have been carried out at CGNPC. According to the nuclear power development plan of China, the timing for operation and the capacity of the reprocessing facility are studied based on the amount of the spent fuel forecast in the future. Furthermore, scenarios of the fuel cycles in the future in China with the next generation of nuclear power were considered. Based on the international experiences on the spent fuel management, several options of spent fuel reprocessing strategies are investigated in detail, for example, MOX fuel recycling in light water reactor, especially in the current reactors of CGNPC, spent fuel intermediated storage, etc. All the investigations help us to draw an overall scheme of the nuclear fuel cycle, and to find a suitable road-map to achieve the sustainable development of nuclear power. (authors)