Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

2006-12-01

The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

The Scenario Planning Paradox

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

2017-01-01

planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz

2006-01-01

For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10 -6 per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Wein, Anne; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Allan Baez,; Sleeter, Rachel

2016-01-01

Local planning is insufficient for regional catastrophes; regional exercises are needed to test emergency plans and decision-making structures. The ARkStorm scenario would trigger a mass evacuation that would be complicated by the social characteristics of populations [e.g., vehicle ownership, age, poverty, English language limitation (ELL), and shelter needs]. Land cover data and dasymetric mapping improves the allocation of residential populations and their social characteristics to the ARkStorm flood zone in 21 counties in California. Numbers and concentrations of county, urban, and rural residents exposed to flooding as well as populations in and out of the scenario flood zone are profiled. The results inform mass evacuation planning by providing a means to (1) examine the sufficiency of mutual aid agreements, (2) underscore planning for carless populations, and (3) tailor multilingual communication strategies. The various geographical distinctions emphasize different challenges throughout the region. It will be important to investigate behavioral responses to warnings, identify evacuation constraints (e.g., shelter capacity versus need), and obtain comparable data on transient populations.

Scenario Planning Analysis for Startup Business Case Study: Kemilau Indonesia Magazine

OpenAIRE

Mulyanto, Frieta Miasari; Sunitiyoso, Yos

2013-01-01

This research explained about the application of scenario planning analysis as solution for Kemilau Indonesia Magazine (KIM) which was born from the opportunities as information and promotion media of tourism. As a new player, KIM has several internal and external issues that impact on its survival. The technique used in this method is to collect data and information to be analyzed in order to generate predictions as a preparation for decision making process. This method give an overview of e...

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ghanem, Mohamed

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

2015-01-01

Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

Gulf Regional Planning Commission scenario planning workshop : sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

This report summarizes noteworthy practices shared during a scenario planning workshop, hosted by the Gulf Regional Planning Commission, on March 15-16, 2016, in Biloxi, Mississippi. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) sponsored this event as p...

Knowledge Management in a Competitive Scenario of an Information Technology Company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Denise de Cuffa

2015-06-01

Full Text Available This research aimed at proposing a knowledge management plan to increase competitiveness in an information technology company. It used qualitative methodology based on a study case, which analyzed the context of internal and external environments in which Intelitech Company operates. The data collection was divided into three steps: (1 application of a questionnaire to the manager and Intelitech employees, which was composed of knowledge management practices (KMPs, aiming at obtaining previous practices from the company and therefore internal critical variables; (2 application of Rojo’s (2005 scenario simulation model in order to identify external critical variables; and (3 formulation of a proposal for KMPs improvements according to simulated scenarios and the internal and external critical variables previously identified. So, this research resulted in the development of an action plan for two scenarios: (C1 case scenario to expansion of the market, therefore the company could hire new employees and expand its physical structure o, enhance IT tools and ask for manager's flexibility towards a new culture; and (C2 also to observe an unfavorable scenario of restricted market, it would be necessary to build customers loyal order to use IT tools, as well as interact and communicate with them. Thus, it was concluded and confirmed the hypothesis that knowledge management can enhance competitiveness of an IT company.

Scenario tree airline fleet planning for demand uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Repko, M.G.J.; Lopes dos Santos, Bruno F.

2017-01-01

This paper proposes an innovative multi-period modeling approach to solve the airline fleet planning problem under demand uncertainty. The problem is modeled using a scenario tree approach. The tree is composed of nodes, which represent points of decision in multiple time stages of the planning

New Orleans Regional Planning Commission scenario planning workshop : sponsored by the Federal Highway Administration

Science.gov (United States)

2016-05-01

This report summarizes noteworthy practices and key recommendations shared during a scenario planning workshop, hosted by the New Orleans Regional Planning Commission, on August 12-13, 2015, in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Federal Highway Administrati...

Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

2013-12-01

Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to

Model-based scenario planning to inform climate change adaptation in the Northern Great Plains—Final report

Science.gov (United States)

Symstad, Amy J.; Miller, Brian W.; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ray, Andrea J.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-12-18

Public SummaryWe worked with managers in two focal areas to plan for the uncertain future by integrating quantitative climate change scenarios and simulation modeling into scenario planning exercises.In our central North Dakota focal area, centered on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site, managers are concerned about how changes in flood severity and growing conditions for native and invasive plants may affect archaeological resources and cultural landscapes associated with the Knife and Missouri Rivers. Climate projections and hydrological modeling based on those projections indicate plausible changes in spring and summer soil moisture ranging from a 7 percent decrease to a 13 percent increase and maximum winter snowpack (important for spring flooding) changes ranging from a 13 percent decrease to a 47 percent increase. Facilitated discussions among managers and scientists exploring the implications of these different climate scenarios for resource management revealed potential conflicts between protecting archeological sites and fostering riparian cottonwood forests. The discussions also indicated the need to prioritize archeological sites for excavation or protection and culturally important plant species for intensive management attention.In our southwestern South Dakota focal area, centered on Badlands National Park, managers are concerned about how changing climate will affect vegetation production, wildlife populations, and erosion of fossils, archeological artifacts, and roads. Climate scenarios explored by managers and scientists in this focal area ranged from a 13 percent decrease to a 33 percent increase in spring precipitation, which is critical to plant growth in the northern Great Plains region, and a slight decrease to a near doubling of intense rain events. Facilitated discussions in this focal area concluded that greater effort should be put into preparing for emergency protection, excavation, and preservation of exposed fossils or

Palestinian-Israeli Scenario Planning - Phase II | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

As currently foreseen, neither the two-state nor the one-state solution offers much hope of resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The Scenario Planning Program of the Strategic Assessments Initiative (SAI) aims to launch a deeper examination of what a sustainable solution requires by shifting the debate from the ...

Dose estimation and evaluation of protector measures for a power plant's accidents scenario, using geographical information system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costa, E.M.; Biagio, R.M.S.; Alves, R.N.

1999-01-01

Since the initial phase of a project of a nuclear plant several environmental studies are carried out, and a considerable amount of relevant information is generated. Therefore, there is an increasing need of an integrated analysis of this information in order to better evaluate the potential impact associated to hypothetical accident scenarios of such plants. This paper presents a case-study, in which a hypothetical accident scenario is analysed taking into account the environmental and populational information of the Brazilian nuclear power plants region by using a geographical information system. Important areas for planning of protective measures are identified to provide a basis for further analysis. (author)

Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.

2015-01-01

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect......, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach...... of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater...

Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

2011-01-01

Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

Using scenario planning to evaluate the impacts of climate change on wildlife populations and communities in the Florida Everglades

Science.gov (United States)

Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.

2015-01-01

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Using Scenario Planning to Evaluate the Impacts of Climate Change on Wildlife Populations and Communities in the Florida Everglades

Science.gov (United States)

Catano, Christopher P.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Beerens, James M.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Brandt, Laura A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Trexler, Joel C.

2015-04-01

It is uncertain how climate change will impact hydrologic drivers of wildlife population dynamics in freshwater wetlands of the Florida Everglades, or how to accommodate this uncertainty in restoration decisions. Using projections of climate scenarios for the year 2060, we evaluated how several possible futures could affect wildlife populations (wading birds, fish, alligators, native apple snails, amphibians, threatened and invasive species) across the Everglades landscape and inform planning already underway. We used data collected from prior research and monitoring to parameterize our wildlife population models. Hydrologic data were simulated using a spatially explicit, regional-scale model. Our scenario evaluations show that expected changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level could significantly alter important ecological functions. All of our wildlife indicators were negatively affected by scenarios with less rainfall and more evapotranspiration. Under such scenarios, habitat suitability was substantially reduced for iconic animals such as wading birds and alligators. Conversely, the increased rainfall scenario benefited aquatic prey productivity and apex predators. Cascading impacts on non-native species is speculative, but increasing temperatures could increase the time between cold events that currently limit expansion and abundance of non-native fishes, amphibians, and reptiles with natural ranges in the tropics. This scenario planning framework underscored the benefits of proceeding with Everglades restoration plans that capture and clean more freshwater with the potential to mitigate rainfall loss and postpone impacts of sea level rise.

Reactive Planning of Autonomous Vehicles for Traffic Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahul Kala

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Autonomous vehicles operate in real time traffic scenarios and aim to reach their destination from their source in the most efficient manner possible. Research in mobile robotics provides a variety of sophisticated means with which to plan the path of these vehicles. Conversely professional human drivers usually drive using instinctive means, which enables them to reach their goal almost optimally whilst still obeying all traffic laws. In this paper we propose the use of fuzzy logic for novel motion planning. The planner is generated using an evolutionary algorithm which resembles the learning stage of professional drivers. Whether to overtake or not, is a decision which affects one’s driving and the decision is made using some deliberation. We further extend the approach to perform decision making regarding overtaking for all vehicles. Further we coordinate the motion of the vehicles at a traffic crossing to avoid any potential jam or collision. Experimental results prove that by using this approach we have been able to make the vehicles move in an optimal manner in a variety of scenarios.

Implications of Contingency Planning Support for Weather and Icing Information

Science.gov (United States)

Vigeant-Langlois, Laurence; Hansman, R. John, Jr.

2003-01-01

A human-centered systems analysis was applied to the adverse aircraft weather encounter problem in order to identify desirable functions of weather and icing information. The importance of contingency planning was identified as emerging from a system safety design methodology as well as from results of other aviation decision-making studies. The relationship between contingency planning support and information on regions clear of adverse weather was investigated in a scenario- based analysis. A rapid prototype example of the key elements in the depiction of icing conditions was developed in a case study, and the implications for the components of the icing information system were articulated.

New Approaches for the Use of the Classical Tools of Scenario Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Balieiro Fischer

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The future is to be built – is multiple and uncertain. Within the social sciences, scenarios can be defined as a description of a future situation and a course of events that allow move from a primary position toward this future situation. Currently, there is a multiplicity of methods and tools available for building scenarios, including methods of an essentially rationalist approach, as Michel Godet’s method. The purpose of this work is to use the hypothetical-deductive method to reduce, starting from Michel Godet’s Scenario Method and its tools, the complexity of the scenario-building process while maintaining the robustness of the findings. For this purpose, it is proposed two different approaches: (1 to integrate, in one step, the structural analysis and the cross-impact matrix so the first one derives automatically while filling the last one; (2 to use the concept of Bayesian networks as a method to integrate the cross-impact matrix and the morphological analysis. Both approaches aim to reduce the amount of information needed to feed the tools and improve the feedback criteria, resulting in greater flexibility during the process and better holistic view of the system. Scientifically, these approaches open a new field of studies in scenario planning as it appropriates the concept of Bayesian networks, widely used in other areas of knowledge (artificial intelligence, geological studies, medical diagnostics, pattern classification, etc., and bring it to the field of social sciences.

Scenario Planning Implementation : A Case of a Malaysian Organisation

OpenAIRE

Lim, Lee Chin

2007-01-01

In this dynamic and ever changing era, uncertainties are inevitable. A successful organisation is one that is able to address the uncertainties in a world that is complex and unpredictable. Scenario planning is a strategic management tool that offers an alternative approach to planning in a world where linear logic does not prevail (Geons, 2001). It is a method for learning about the future by understanding the uncertainties and driving forces affecting an organisation’s future. Its core bene...

Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

2015-04-01

The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

Visions, Scenarios and Action Plans Towards Next Generation Tanzania Power System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alex Kyaruzi

2012-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents strategic visions, scenarios and action plans for enhancing Tanzania Power Systems towards next generation Smart Power Grid. It first introduces the present Tanzanian power grid and the challenges ahead in terms of generation capacity, financial aspect, technical and non-technical losses, revenue loss, high tariff, aging infrastructure, environmental impact and the interconnection with the neighboring countries. Then, the current initiatives undertaken by the Tanzania government in response to the present challenges and the expected roles of smart grid in overcoming these challenges in the future with respect to the scenarios presented are discussed. The developed scenarios along with visions and recommended action plans towards the future Tanzanian power system can be exploited at all governmental levels to achieve public policy goals and help develop business opportunities by motivating domestic and international investments in modernizing the nation’s electric power infrastructure. In return, it should help build the green energy economy.

Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

2009-01-01

This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning: Scenario Case Studies Using the Resource Planning Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-04-01

In this report, we analyze the impacts of model configuration and detail in capacity expansion models, computational tools used by utility planners looking to find the least cost option for planning the system and by researchers or policy makers attempting to understand the effects of various policy implementations. The present analysis focuses on the importance of model configurations — particularly those related to capacity credit, dispatch modeling, and transmission modeling — to the construction of scenario futures. Our analysis is primarily directed toward advanced tools used for utility planning and is focused on those impacts that are most relevant to decisions with respect to future renewable capacity deployment. To serve this purpose, we develop and employ the NREL Resource Planning Model to conduct a case study analysis that explores 12 separate capacity expansion scenarios of the Western Interconnection through 2030.

[GIS and scenario analysis aid to water pollution control planning of river basin].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Shao-ping; Cheng, Sheng-tong; Jia, Hai-feng; Ou, Zhi-dan; Tan, Bin

2004-07-01

The forward and backward algorithms for watershed water pollution control planning were summarized in this paper as well as their advantages and shortages. The spatial databases of water environmental function region, pollution sources, monitoring sections and sewer outlets were built with ARCGIS8.1 as the platform in the case study of Ganjiang valley, Jiangxi province. Based on the principles of the forward algorithm, four scenarios were designed for the watershed pollution control. Under these scenarios, ten sets of planning schemes were generated to implement cascade pollution source control. The investment costs of sewage treatment for these schemes were estimated by means of a series of cost-effective functions; with pollution source prediction, the water quality was modeled with CSTR model for each planning scheme. The modeled results of different planning schemes were visualized through GIS to aid decision-making. With the results of investment cost and water quality attainment as decision-making accords and based on the analysis of the economic endurable capacity for water pollution control in Ganjiang river basin, two optimized schemes were proposed. The research shows that GIS technology and scenario analysis can provide a good guidance to the synthesis, integrity and sustainability aspects for river basin water quality planning.

Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kerry A. Waylen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

Why natural disaster planning scenarios are often so disastrously wrong.

Science.gov (United States)

Verosub, K. L.

2017-12-01

Taken together the four hurricanes that impacted the United States in the summer of 2017 demonstrate the difficulties involved in trying to plan for any natural disaster, not simply a major hurricane. They also highlight the extraordinary degree to which small and/or random variations in initial conditions can have enormous consequences on the outcome of an event and on the ability of a society to respond to it. For example, if Harvey had been moving faster, it would have meant less rainfall and hence less flooding in the Houston area whereas a slight change in the path of Irma would have significantly affected which portions of the Florida peninsula would have experienced greater or lesser devastation. In the case of Marie, hurricane intensity and path as well as the terrain in Puerto Rico and the inherent state of its infrastructure greatly complicated relief and recovery efforts there. An additional factor that makes planning scenarios so difficult to develop is that major natural disasters can often be analyzed as a sequence of events. At each juncture in the sequence, the event might evolve along two or more very different pathways, which can lead to different outcomes. Sometimes, as with Nate, an event evolves more or less "as expected" and the planning scenario does what it was supposed to do, namely, help people respond to the event. But to a much greater extent than is usually recognized, small or random variations can drive an event off its expected trajectory and into a response realm that "no one could have foreseen." Even worse is when those small or random variations allow an event to bifurcate and follow two or more different pathways simultaneously, leading to a cascading disaster that totally overwhelms whatever planning and preparation has been put in place. Perhaps the main lessons to be learned from these storms is that planning for any disaster requires greater recognition of the importance of small or random factors and greater appreciation of

Linking global scenarios to national assessments: Experiences from the Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Linda L. Langner; Peter J. Ince

2012-01-01

The Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment provides a nationally consistent analysis of the status and trends of the Nation's renewable forest resources. A global scenario approach was taken for the 2010 RPA Assessment to provide a shared world view of potential futures. The RPA Assessment scenarios were linked to the global scenarios and climate projections used...

Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

Science.gov (United States)

Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

2013-12-01

Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

Bringing politics back into water planning scenarios in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez, Sara; Bouleau, Gabrielle; Treyer, Sébastien

2014-10-01

The shift from government to governance in European water policies conveys a pluralist conception of stakeholder participation in planning. This article argues that the current Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to the planning of natural resource use, developed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Environmental Agency (EEA) is at odds with a pluralistic conception. The DPSIR approach consists in constructing a single socio-environmental model to address a specific problem in water management, while paying no attention to the existence of conflicts surrounding the definition of the issue at hand, the social, political and spatial delimitation of that issue, and the translation of stakes in terms of quantitative variables. Scenarios produced in this process therefore explore a limited range of policies, i.e. those defining the problem in the same way, as illustrated here with the case of the Garonne River in France. This article presents an alternative method, combining knowledge in social science and natural determinisms to build contrasting socio-hydrological scenarios that do not share the same hypotheses regarding their respective key issues.

Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Decision-Making Style

Science.gov (United States)

Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

2008-01-01

This research examines changes in decision-making styles as a result of participation in scenario planning. A quasi-experimental pretest-posttest design and several nonparametric tests were used to analyze data gathered from research participants in a technology firm in the Northeastern United States. Results show that participants tend to…

Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker Grienitz

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

2013-01-01

Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

Resource management and operations in central North Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary November 12-13, 2015, Bismarck, ND

Science.gov (United States)

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Friedman, Jonathan M.; Miller, Brian; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the central North Dakota focal area, with an emphasis on Knife River Indian Villages National Historic Site. The report explainsscenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the central North Dakota focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held November 12-13, 2015 in Bismarck, ND, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

Science.gov (United States)

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fine-resolution conservation planning with limited climate-change information.

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L; Ando, Amy W; Guntenspergen, Glenn R

2017-04-01

Climate-change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation-related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation-planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk-diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate-change scenarios for carrying out fine-resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk-return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate-change information and full climate-change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate-change forecasts such that the best possible risk-return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate-change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Fine‐resolution conservation planning with limited climate‐change information

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Payal; Mallory, Mindy L.; Ando , Amy W.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2017-01-01

Climate‐change induced uncertainties in future spatial patterns of conservation‐related outcomes make it difficult to implement standard conservation‐planning paradigms. A recent study translates Markowitz's risk‐diversification strategy from finance to conservation settings, enabling conservation agents to use this diversification strategy for allocating conservation and restoration investments across space to minimize the risk associated with such uncertainty. However, this method is information intensive and requires a large number of forecasts of ecological outcomes associated with possible climate‐change scenarios for carrying out fine‐resolution conservation planning. We developed a technique for iterative, spatial portfolio analysis that can be used to allocate scarce conservation resources across a desired level of subregions in a planning landscape in the absence of a sufficient number of ecological forecasts. We applied our technique to the Prairie Pothole Region in central North America. A lack of sufficient future climate information prevented attainment of the most efficient risk‐return conservation outcomes in the Prairie Pothole Region. The difference in expected conservation returns between conservation planning with limited climate‐change information and full climate‐change information was as large as 30% for the Prairie Pothole Region even when the most efficient iterative approach was used. However, our iterative approach allowed finer resolution portfolio allocation with limited climate‐change forecasts such that the best possible risk‐return combinations were obtained. With our most efficient iterative approach, the expected loss in conservation outcomes owing to limited climate‐change information could be reduced by 17% relative to other iterative approaches.

NPP accident scenario. Which emergency measures are planned in Switzerland?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flury, Christoph

2016-01-01

As a consequence of the reactor accident in Fukushima the Swiss government has ordered an extensive analysis of emergency planning in case of a NPP accident Switzerland. A special working group has analyzed the possible improvements of Swiss emergency planning based on the experiences in Japan. Under the special direction of the Bundesamt fuer Bevoelkerungsschutz (BABS) the agreed improvements were integrated into the emergency concept. The reference scenarios have been re-assessed and the zone concept adapted. The emergency measures include shelter-type rooms (basement or window-less rooms), the preventive distribution of iodine pills, measures concerning agriculture, aquatic systems, preventive evacuation, traffic regulations, and delayed evacuation.

Resource management and operations in southwest South Dakota: Climate change scenario planning workshop summary January 20-21, 2016, Rapid City, SD

Science.gov (United States)

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ray, Andrea; Miller, Brian; Cross, Molly; Rowland, Erika

2016-01-01

The Scaling Climate Change Adaptation in the Northern Great Plains through Regional Climate Summaries and Local Qualitative-Quantitative Scenario Planning Workshops project synthesizes climate data into 3-5 distinct but plausible climate summaries for the northern Great Plains region; crafts quantitative summaries of these climate futures for two focal areas; and applies these local summaries by developing climate-resource-management scenarios through participatory workshops and, where possible, simulation models. The two focal areas are central North Dakota and southwest South Dakota (Figure 1). The primary objective of this project is to help resource managers and scientists in a focal area use scenario planning to make management and planning decisions based on assessments of critical future uncertainties.This report summarizes project work for public and tribal lands in the southwest South Dakota grasslands focal area, with an emphasis on Badlands National Park and Buffalo Gap National Grassland. The report explains scenario planning as an adaptation tool in general, then describes how it was applied to the focal area in three phases. Priority resource management and climate uncertainties were identified in the orientation phase. Local climate summaries for relevant, divergent, and challenging climate scenarios were developed in the second phase. In the final phase, a two-day scenario planning workshop held January 20-21, 2016 in Rapid City, South Dakota, featured scenario development and implications, testing management decisions, and methods for operationalizing scenario planning outcomes.

Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, E. Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

2015-01-01

Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

INFORMATION SYSTEM STRATEGIC PLANNING WITH ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE PLANNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lola Yorita Astri

2013-05-01

Full Text Available An integrated information system is needed in an enterprise to support businessprocesses run by an enterprise. Therefore, to develop information system can use enterprisearchitecture approach which can define strategic planning of enterprise information system. SMPNegeri 1 Jambi can be viewed as an enterprise because there are entities that should be managedthrough an integrated information system. Since there has been no unification of different elementsin a unity yet, enterprise architecture model using Enterprise Architecture Planning (EAP isneeded which will obtain strategic planning of enterprise information system in SMP Negeri 1Jambi. The goal of strategic planning of information system with Enterprise Architecture Planning(EAP is to define primary activities run by SMP Negeri 1 Jambi and support activities supportingprimary activities. They can be used as a basis for making data architecture which is the entities ofapplication architecture. At last, technology architecture is designed to describe technology neededto provide environment for data application. The plan of implementation is the activity plan madeto implemented architectures by enterprise.

Subsurface information for risk-sensitive urban spatial planning in Dhaka Metropolitan City, Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Günther, Andreas; Aziz Patwary, Mohammad Abdul; Bahls, Rebecca; Asaduzzaman, Atm; Ludwig, Rüdiger; Ashraful Kamal, Mohammad; Nahar Faruqa, Nurun; Jabeen, Sarwat

2016-04-01

Dhaka Metropolitan City (including Dhaka and five adjacent municipal areas) is one of the fastest developing urban regions in the world. Densely build-up areas in the developed metropolitan area of Dhaka City are subject to extensive restructuring as common six- or lower storied buildings are replaced by higher and heavier constructions. Additional stories are built on existing houses, frequently exceeding the allowable bearing pressure on the subsoil as supported by the foundations. In turn, newly developing city areas are projected in marshy terrains modified by extensive, largely unengineered landfills. In most areas, these terrains bear unfavorable building ground conditions within 30 meters. Within a collaborative technical cooperation project between Bangladesh and Germany, BGR supports GSB in the provision of geo-information for the Capital Development Authority (RAJUK). For general urban planning, RAJUK successively develops a detailed area plan (DAP) at scale 1 : 50000 for the whole Dhaka Metropolitan City area (approx. 1700 km2). Geo-information have not been considered in the present DAP. Within the project, geospatial information in form of a geomorphic map, a digital terrain model and a 3-D subsurface model covering the whole city area have been generated at a scale of 1 : 50000. An extensive engineering geological data base consisting of more than 2200 borehole data with associated Standard Penetration Testing (SPT) and lab data has been compiled. With the field testing (SPT) and engineering geological lab data, the 3-D subsurface model can be parameterized to derive important spatial subsurface information for urban planning like bearing capacity evaluations for different foundation designs or soil liquefaction potential assessments for specific earthquake scenarios. In conjunction with inundation potential evaluations for different flooding scenarios, comprehensive building ground suitability information can be derived to support risk

Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning: Nuclear Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duic, N.; Bogdan, Z.; Juretic, F.; Zeljko, M.

2002-01-01

Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, particularly in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages the construction of mostly nuclear power plants in the future, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level, but that choosing the nuclear option might reduce significantly the cost of compliance. (author)

A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris A. Geldenhuys

2011-02-01

Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned. Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world. Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’. Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as a change navigation based, scenario planning process (CNBSPP. Practical/managerial implications: CNBSPP is available for use by organisations wishing to apply a strategic planning tool that fits within a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership approach. Contribution/value add: The research makes a unique contribution to the current level of knowledge by integrating two disciplines

Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Muhammad

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0 that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

Public Information Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1984-06-01

The Public Information Plan is intended to be used in conjunction with the DOE-UMTRA Project ''Public Participation Plan'' to describe the Department of Energy's plan for involving the public in the decision-making process related to the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. This project was authorized by Congress in the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control of Act of 1978, PL95-604. The Act provides for a cooperative effort with affected states and Indian tribes for the cleanup of designated abandoned or inactive uranium mill tailings sites. The objective of the Public Information Plan of the UMTRA Project is timely and sufficient dissemination of factual information to promote understanding of the project by federal, state, and local officials, the media, special interest groups, and the general public; and thereby to encourage informed participation in the project by the public and government officials. The Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act provides for public involvement in remedial action planning, with special consideration given to landowners, Indian tribes, and the states. According to the Act, the Secretary of Energy shall hold public hearings in the states where processing sites, vicinity properties, and disposal sites are located. Public participation in the UMTRA Project will not, however, be limited to those mechanisms formally required by law. The public may also be involved informally through informational meetings, workshops, and local citizens' task forces. 12 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Discussion of ISV Scenario Scope with Operating Process Element

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yun Goo; Oh, Eungse [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. ltd. Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

NUREG-0711 identifies the sampling dimension of operational conditions which includes normal operation,I and C and HSI failures, transient, and accidents. Because of practical limitation of sampling, ISV scenarios do not include every expected operational condition. To develop a scenario for the ISV, it requires much time and efforts. It takes about 1 month with 3 operating crew team for 7 scenarios for the ISV. Therefore, operational conditions are screened out for integration to scenario. TSV can be used for the evaluation of monitoring, detection, and response implementation about the inventory of information and control. However, validity of operational walkthrough for other operating process element needs to be discussed. For the situation awareness, the general acceptance check list can be derived from the result of representative scenario set of ISV. The check list may contain the number of information, type of information, level of procedure and training program. For the response planning, procedure can be used for evaluation.

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Science.gov (United States)

Michelle L. Johnson; Kathleen P. Bell; Mario F. Teisl

2016-01-01

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the...

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Assessing habitat risk from human activities to inform coastal and marine spatial planning: a demonstration in Belize

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arkema, Katie K; Wood, Spencer A; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Verutes, Gregory; Rosenthal, Amy; Bernhardt, Joanna R; Clarke, Chantalle; Rosado, Samir; Canto, Maritza; McField, Melanie; De Zegher, Joann

2014-01-01

Integrated coastal and ocean management requires transparent and accessible approaches for understanding the influence of human activities on marine environments. Here we introduce a model for assessing the combined risk to habitats from multiple ocean uses. We apply the model to coral reefs, mangrove forests and seagrass beds in Belize to inform the design of the country’s first Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan. Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, review of existing legislation and data collected from diverse sources, we map the current distribution of coastal and ocean activities and develop three scenarios for zoning these activities in the future. We then estimate ecosystem risk under the current and three future scenarios. Current levels of risk vary spatially among the nine coastal planning regions in Belize. Empirical tests of the model are strong—three-quarters of the measured data for coral reef health lie within the 95% confidence interval of interpolated model data and 79% of the predicted mangrove occurrences are associated with observed responses. The future scenario that harmonizes conservation and development goals results in a 20% reduction in the area of high-risk habitat compared to the current scenario, while increasing the extent of several ocean uses. Our results are a component of the ICZM Plan for Belize that will undergo review by the national legislature in 2015. This application of our model to marine spatial planning in Belize illustrates an approach that can be used broadly by coastal and ocean planners to assess risk to habitats under current and future management scenarios. (letter)

A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn Merrick

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

Geotechnical information as an important element when planning and designing civil engineering work Bogotá

OpenAIRE

Denisse Cangrejo Aljure; Carlos Gustavo Infante

2010-01-01

The city of Bogota provides a dynamic scenario re civil construction work; it is thereby essential to have relevant information available for the suitable planning and evaluation of engineering work from both the structural and budgetary points of view. The moisture content of soil has become a most important variable, given its great impact on placing structures in Bogota. This is why this work on city zoning aimed at orientating planning and designing civil engineering work has been done a...

Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

2010-01-01

Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

Science.gov (United States)

Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

2013-01-01

Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

In Hyuck Hwang

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is because the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manually by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was suggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

Automation of block assignment planning using a diagram-based scenario modeling method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hwang In Hyuck

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Most shipbuilding scheduling research so far has focused on the load level on the dock plan. This is be¬cause the dock is the least extendable resource in shipyards, and its overloading is difficult to resolve. However, once dock scheduling is completed, making a plan that makes the best use of the rest of the resources in the shipyard to minimize any additional cost is also important. Block assignment planning is one of the midterm planning tasks; it assigns a block to the facility (factory/shop or surface plate that will actually manufacture the block according to the block characteristics and current situation of the facility. It is one of the most heavily loaded midterm planning tasks and is carried out manu¬ally by experienced workers. In this study, a method of representing the block assignment rules using a diagram was su¬ggested through analysis of the existing manual process. A block allocation program was developed which automated the block assignment process according to the rules represented by the diagram. The planning scenario was validated through a case study that compared the manual assignment and two automated block assignment results.

Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

2018-02-01

The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Scenario-based design: a method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management.

Science.gov (United States)

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-12-01

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Interview analysis identified 25 information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create 25 scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

75 FR 9334 - Multiemployer Pension Plan Information Made Available on Request

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-02

... regulation limit disclosure under paragraph (c)(1)(i) to reports that actuaries produce at regularly... report'' means any actuarial reports prepared by an actuary of the plan and received by the plan at... plan from an actuary of the plan that depict alternative funding scenarios based on a range of...

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

2016-01-01

We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty. (paper)

A Semantic Web-Based Authoring Tool to Facilitate the Planning of Collaborative Learning Scenarios Compliant with Learning Theories

Science.gov (United States)

Isotani, Seiji; Mizoguchi, Riichiro; Isotani, Sadao; Capeli, Olimpio M.; Isotani, Naoko; de Albuquerque, Antonio R. P. L.; Bittencourt, Ig. I.; Jaques, Patricia

2013-01-01

When the goal of group activities is to support long-term learning, the task of designing well-thought-out collaborative learning (CL) scenarios is an important key to success. To help students adequately acquire and develop their knowledge and skills, a teacher can plan a scenario that increases the probability for learning to occur. Such a…

Planning for information systems

CERN Document Server

King, William R

2015-01-01

Edited by one of the best-known and most widely respected figures in the field, ""Planning for Information Systems"" is a comprehensive, single source overview of the myriad ideas and processes that are identified with IS planning. While many chapters deal with high level strategic planning, the book gives equal attention to on-the-ground planning issues.Part I, 'Key Concepts of IS Planning', focuses on how IS planning has evolved over the years; business-IS strategic alignment; and the role of dynamic organizational capabilities in leveraging IS competencies. Part II, 'The Organizational IS P

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

Planning and design of information systems

CERN Document Server

Blokdijk, André

1991-01-01

Planning and Design of Information Systems provides a theoretical base and a practical method of executing the planning of computerized information systems, and the planning and design of individual applications. The book is organized into five parts, covering the non-technical and nonimplementational part of information systems planning, design, and development. Part I gives the theoretical base for the subsequent parts of the book. It discusses modeling, techniques, notations, boundaries, quality issues and aspects, and decomposition techniques and problems. Part II discusses the needs, prob

Public information plan. Version 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Public Information Plan is intended to be used in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project Public Participation Plan. The Public Participation Pion describes the DOE procedure for involving the public in the decision-making process related to the UMTRA Project during the stages at which public participation is required and solicited. This Public Information Plan describes the department's procedure for communicating with the public about project policies, plans, and activities. Together, these complementary plans describe the DOE public affairs program for the UMTRA Project. This project was authorized by Congress in the Uranium Mill Tailings Radiation Control Act (UMTRCA) of 1978, (Public Law (PL) 95-6041), as amended. The Act provides for a cooperative effort with affected states and Indian tribes for the cleanup of designated abandoned or inactive uranium mill tailings sites, which are located in 10 states, 9 of them west of the Mississippi River. The public has a right to know about proposed government actions and to be heard in the planning of activities that influence their lives. The UMTRA Project is unclassified and the DOE provides accurate information about policy and project activities to interested stakeholders, including the news media, in a timely way. The DOE encourages states and local governments, as well as individuals, to join actively in the decision-making process. This is intended to ensure that the resulting decisions are made with full knowledge of the public's views and that these decisions address the public's concerns to the extent possible within the law. The DOE, through the implementation of the Public Information Plan, keeps the public informed on matters such as health concerns, environmental issues, remedial action construction plans, project costs, and specific site activities

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

Science.gov (United States)

Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

2012-01-01

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Tufts academic health information network: concept and scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Stearns, N S

1986-04-01

Tufts University School of Medicine's new health sciences education building, the Arthur M. Sackler Center for Health Communications, will house a modern medical library and computer center, classrooms, auditoria, and media facilities. The building will also serve as the center for an information and communication network linking the medical school and adjacent New England Medical Center, Tufts' primary teaching hospital, with Tufts Associated Teaching Hospitals throughout New England. Ultimately, the Tufts network will join other gateway networks, information resource facilities, health care institutions, and medical schools throughout the world. The center and the network are intended to facilitate and improve the education of health professionals, the delivery of health care to patients, the conduct of research, and the implementation of administrative management approaches that should provide more efficient utilization of resources and save dollars. A model and scenario show how health care delivery and health care education are integrated through better use of information transfer technologies by health information specialists, practitioners, and educators.

Information Value Distance and Crisis Management Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brahim Herbane

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Organizational learning during and post-crisis is well established in the management literature but consideration of learning for crisis and the sources of information perceived to be useful for crisis management planning have not previously been examined. This study evaluates data from 215 U.K.-based small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs about the perceived value of 11 sources of information between planning (i.e., firms with a crisis management plan and non-planning respondents. For planning firms, the information sources considered to be useful are exclusively experience-based, and when information sources become less idiosyncratic and episodic, planning firms’ evaluations of their value begin to approximate the ratings given by non-planning firms. Furthermore, the concepts of relative value distance and value distance from threshold are original features of this study and offer new ways to evaluate the value of information sources for organizations wishing to provide information and support to improve business resilience and business continuity.

Using scenario-based training to promote information literacy among on-call consultant pediatricians.

Science.gov (United States)

Pettersson, Jonas; Bjorkander, Emil; Bark, Sirpa; Holmgren, Daniel; Wekell, Per

2017-07-01

Traditionally, teaching hospital staff to search for medical information relies heavily on educator-defined search methods. In contrast, the authors describe our experiences using real-time scenarios to teach on-call consultant pediatricians information literacy skills as part of a two-year continuing professional development program. Two information-searching workshops were held at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the workshops, pediatricians were presented with medical scenarios that were closely related to their clinical practice. Participants were initially encouraged to solve the problems using their own preferred search methods, followed by group discussions led by clinical educators and a medical librarian in which search problems were identified and overcome. The workshops were evaluated using questionnaires to assess participant satisfaction and the extent to which participants intended to implement changes in their clinical practice and reported actual change. A scenario-based approach to teaching clinicians how to search for medical information is an attractive alternative to traditional lectures. The relevance of such an approach was supported by a high level of participant engagement during the workshops and high scores for participant satisfaction, intended changes to clinical practice, and reported benefits in actual clinical practice.

29 CFR 2520.101-6 - Multiemployer pension plan information made available on request.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... “periodic actuarial report” means any— (i) Actuarial report prepared by an actuary of the plan and received... plan from an actuary of the plan that depicts alternative funding scenarios based on a range of...

A GIS based district information system for water resources management and planning

Science.gov (United States)

Tzabiras, John; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Kokkinos, Kostantinos; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2014-05-01

In many watersheds of the Mediterranean Countries, water resources are presently fully or overcommitted. Irrigators are the largest consumers of fresh water in Mediterranean Countries using up to 80% of all allocated water in some regions. Administrative efforts should be directed towards an integrated policy of water allocation which accounts for the characteristics and specificity of each farm, requiring the availability of data bases and management tools (decision support systems) specifically designed to fulfil the objectives of maximizing water use efficiency. The overall objective of this program was the development of a District Information System (DIS) which could be used by stakeholders at purposes of irrigation district day-to-day management as well as for planning and strategic decision-making. The DIS was developed from a GIS-based modelling approach which integrates a generic crop model, a hydraulic module for the water transfer/distribution system and uses remote sensing information. The main sub-objectives were: (i) the development of an operational algorithm to retrieve crop evapotranspiration from remote sensing data, (ii) the development of an information system with friendly user interface for the data base, the crop module and the hydraulic module and (iii) the analysis and validation of management scenarios from model simulations predicting the respective behaviour. Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to derive monthly actual evapotranspiration (ET) values from Landsat TM imagery. Meteorological data from the archive of the Institute for Research and Technology, Thessaly (I.RE.TE.TH) have also been used. The methodology was developed using high quality Landsat TM images during 2007 growing season. Monthly ET values are then used as an input to CROPWAT model. Outputs of CROPWAT model are then used as input for the hydraylic module consisted of TECHNOLOGISMIKI, WATERCAD and WEAP model. Hence, a reference scenario was

Preparatory Work for a Scenario-Based Electricity Expansion Plan for North Korea after Hypothetical Reunification using WASP-IV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Young Joo; Chang, Choong Koo [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

It is noteworthy that North Korean government itself has demanded other parties' cooperation in the field of power sector as the top priority to deal with North Korean own economic issues. In this light, the researcher consider that how to build power capacity in North Korean area after reunification needs to be studied with priority. A scenario-based approach is being adopted, and three scenarios are proposed: Scenario increasing capacity at 2.4% annual rate, Imitating South Korean electricity expansion history, and reaching 80% of South Korean Annual Peak Load in 35 years. In order to carry out the research, WASP-IV (Wien Automation System Planning-IV) code developed by IAEA is, with reasonable assumptions, being executed. Annual Peak Load prediction for each scenario, load duration curve, and existing power generating facilities in North Korea are presented herein. This research is being conducted as a preparatory work for the further study. IAEA's WASP-IV is adopted for a scenario-based electricity expansion plan for North Korea after hypothetical reunification between Koreas. Input data including Annual Peak Load, load duration curve, and existing facilities are built and presented. Additional future research includes inputting candidate plants data, cost data such as construction period, operation and maintenance costs, and fuel costs, as well as decommissioning of aged power plants in North Korea to complete WASP-IV execution. Assuming reunification, electricity expansion plan would need to integrate North and South Koreas demands and facilities. However, this research narrows down its scope to North Korean demand and facilities only. Such integrated simulation could be the topic for the later research. This work was supported by the 2014 Research Fund of the KINGS.

Preparatory Work for a Scenario-Based Electricity Expansion Plan for North Korea after Hypothetical Reunification using WASP-IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Young Joo; Chang, Choong Koo

2014-01-01

It is noteworthy that North Korean government itself has demanded other parties' cooperation in the field of power sector as the top priority to deal with North Korean own economic issues. In this light, the researcher consider that how to build power capacity in North Korean area after reunification needs to be studied with priority. A scenario-based approach is being adopted, and three scenarios are proposed: Scenario increasing capacity at 2.4% annual rate, Imitating South Korean electricity expansion history, and reaching 80% of South Korean Annual Peak Load in 35 years. In order to carry out the research, WASP-IV (Wien Automation System Planning-IV) code developed by IAEA is, with reasonable assumptions, being executed. Annual Peak Load prediction for each scenario, load duration curve, and existing power generating facilities in North Korea are presented herein. This research is being conducted as a preparatory work for the further study. IAEA's WASP-IV is adopted for a scenario-based electricity expansion plan for North Korea after hypothetical reunification between Koreas. Input data including Annual Peak Load, load duration curve, and existing facilities are built and presented. Additional future research includes inputting candidate plants data, cost data such as construction period, operation and maintenance costs, and fuel costs, as well as decommissioning of aged power plants in North Korea to complete WASP-IV execution. Assuming reunification, electricity expansion plan would need to integrate North and South Koreas demands and facilities. However, this research narrows down its scope to North Korean demand and facilities only. Such integrated simulation could be the topic for the later research. This work was supported by the 2014 Research Fund of the KINGS

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M Adams

Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

European Planning for an Information Society

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Henten, Anders; Skouby, Knud Erik; Falch, Morten

1996-01-01

Article analysing the different programmes and plans for the development of information societies in Europe.......Article analysing the different programmes and plans for the development of information societies in Europe....

SEDAC information gateway plan V(1)

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Robert S. (Compiler)

1995-01-01

This annual update of the Information Gateway Plan incorporates changes recommended by the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) User Working Group (UWG) and reflects comments and suggestions from users, collaborators, and the Contracting Officer Technical Representative (COTR). The Information Gateway Plan is a concise and specific plan that outlines SEDAC activities and services in support of the earth and social sciences and other user communities. The SEDAC Information Gateway effort is a primary means by which the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) can link meaningfully with a broad range of social science data sources and users in ways that lead to tangible benefits to the American people. The SEDAC Information Gateway provides interdisciplinary access to socioeconomic and physical science data and information resources held by SEDAC and numerous other institutions and networks around the world. The Plan describes the areas of research of earth scientists and socioeconomic scientists where interchange of data and information is most needed. It sets guidelines for the continued development of SEDAC's directory of social science datasets and establishes priorities for efforts to make data held by SEDAC or accessible through SEDAC available to the user community. The Plan also describes the means by which the SEDAC user community can access information products specified by the SEDAC Data and Applications Development Plan (DADP). Among other major activities, SEDAC will continue to enhance and operate a directory capability, interoperable with the Global Change Master Directory, that provides the socioeconomic community with information about earth science products and the earth science research community with information about socioeconomic data. The Information Gateway also serves as a unique and powerful access pathway for a wide range of users and potential users of socioeconomic and earth science data, including

Strategic Planning for scenarios in the natural environment. The case of the Nature Outlook 2050 GDP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Urbano Lopez de Meneses, J.

2015-01-01

Forward planning is part of strategic planning. It is a regular tool in management and direction of the companies. Some European countries include it in environmental policy cycle. Scenarios approach is a proved qualitative foresight technique. It is useful in high variability and complexity environments. This paper shows how to implement the tool, mixing theoretical explanation and the practical performance done in project called: Nature Outlook 2050. This project has been done by the Netherlands agency for environmental assessment and foresight (PBL). (Author)

Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gujba, H.; Mulugetta, Y.; Azapagic, A.

2011-01-01

Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms. - Research Highlights: →The power sector in Nigeria is set to grow significantly in near future. →Power sector scenarios are constructed and studied using LCA and economic analysis methods and then compared against the Government's plans. →These include two fossil-fuel and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios. →The results explicitly show the trade-offs between environmental impacts and costs. →Following the fossil fuel paths will reduce capital costs but increase environmental impacts. The renewable energy paths will reduce some environmental impacts but increase the capital costs.

National Waste Terminal Storage Program: information management plan. Volume II. Plan description

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-05-01

A comprehensive information management plan to provide for the systematic processing of large amounts of internally prepared and externally acquired documentation that will accrue to the Office of Waste Isolation (OWI) during the next decade is outlined. The Information Management Plan of the National Waste Terminal Storage (NWTS) Program is based on time proven procedures developed by government and industry for the requirements determination, acquisition, and the administration of documentation. The NWTS Information Management Plan is designed to establish the basis for the planning, development, implemenation, operation and maintenance of the NWTS Information Management System. This plan will help assure that documentation meets required quality standards and that each organization's needs are reflected when soliciting documentation from subcontractors. An example would be the Quality Assurance documentation requirement necessary to comply with eventual NRC licensing regulations. The provisions of the NWTS Information Management Plan will apply to all documentation from OWI contractors, subcontractors, and suppliers, and to OWI organizations for documentation prepared periodically for external dissemination

Bridging information requirements and information needs assessment: do scenarios and vignettes provide a link?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christine Urquhart

2001-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to compare the philosophies of the vignette and critical incident techniques in information behaviour research, with the methodologies used in object oriented analysis such as use case scenarios and CRC (class, responsibility, collaboration cards. The principles of object oriented analysis are outlined, noting the emphasis on obtaining the "storyline" or "scripts" for information requirements analysis through use cases and CRC cards.  The critical incident technique and vignettes are used to obtain valid interpretations of users" information behaviour, using a storyline approach for data collection (and analysis which is similar to that of object oriented analysis. Some examples illustrate how techniques developed in object oriented analysis could be used for data display in information behaviour studies. Concludes that the methods developed by software engineering could be adapted usefully for information behaviour research.

Measuring the Rate of Change in Sea Level and Its Adherence to USACE Sea Level Rise Planning Scenarios Using Timeseries Metrics

Science.gov (United States)

White, K. D.; Huang, N.; Huber, M.; Veatch, W.; Moritz, H.; Obrien, P. S.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

In 2013, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) issued guidance for all Civil Works activities to incorporate the effects of sea level change as described in three distinct planning scenarios.[1] These planning scenarios provided a useful framework to incorporate these effects into Civil Works activities, but required the manual calculation of these scenarios for a given gage and set of datum. To address this need, USACE developed the Sea Level Change Curve Calculator (SLCCC) in 2014 which provided a "simple, web-based tool to provide repeatable analytical results."[2]USACE has been developing a successor to the SLCCC application which retains the same, intuitive functionality to calculate these planning scenarios, but it also allows the comparison of actual sea level change between 1992 and today against the projections, and builds on the user's ability to understand the rate of change using a variety of timeseries metrics (e.g. moving averages, trends) and related visualizations. These new metrics help both illustrate and measure the complexity and nuances of sea level change. [1] ER 1000-2-8162. http://www.publications.usace.army.mil/Portals/76/Publications/EngineerRegulations/ER_1100-2-8162.pdf. [2] SLCC Manual. http://www.corpsclimate.us/docs/SLC_Calculator_Manual_2014_88.pdf.

Limitations and information needs for engineered nanomaterial-specific exposure estimation and scenarios: recommendations for improved reporting practices

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Katherine; van Tongeren, Martie; Christensen, Frans M.; Brouwer, Derk; Nowack, Bernd; Gottschalk, Fadri; Micheletti, Christian; Schmid, Kaspar; Gerritsen, Rianda; Aitken, Rob; Vaquero, Celina; Gkanis, Vasileios; Housiadas, Christos; de Ipiña, Jesús María López; Riediker, Michael

2012-09-01

The aim of this paper is to describe the process and challenges in building exposure scenarios for engineered nanomaterials (ENM), using an exposure scenario format similar to that used for the European Chemicals regulation (REACH). Over 60 exposure scenarios were developed based on information from publicly available sources (literature, books, and reports), publicly available exposure estimation models, occupational sampling campaign data from partnering institutions, and industrial partners regarding their own facilities. The primary focus was on carbon-based nanomaterials, nano-silver (nano-Ag) and nano-titanium dioxide (nano-TiO2), and included occupational and consumer uses of these materials with consideration of the associated environmental release. The process of building exposure scenarios illustrated the availability and limitations of existing information and exposure assessment tools for characterizing exposure to ENM, particularly as it relates to risk assessment. This article describes the gaps in the information reviewed, recommends future areas of ENM exposure research, and proposes types of information that should, at a minimum, be included when reporting the results of such research, so that the information is useful in a wider context.

Limitations and information needs for engineered nanomaterial-specific exposure estimation and scenarios: recommendations for improved reporting practices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clark, Katherine, E-mail: katherine.clark@lkc-ltd.com [LKC (Switzerland); Tongeren, Martie van, E-mail: martie.vantongeren@iom-world.org [Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) (United Kingdom); Christensen, Frans M., E-mail: fmch@cowi.dk [COWI (Denmark); Brouwer, Derk, E-mail: dick.brouwer@tno.nl [TNO (Netherlands); Nowack, Bernd, E-mail: nowack@empa.ch; Gottschalk, Fadri, E-mail: Fadri.Gottschalk@empa.ch [EMPA-Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Switzerland); Micheletti, Christian, E-mail: Christian.micheletti@gmail.com [Veneto NanoTech S.C.p.A (Italy); Schmid, Kaspar, E-mail: kasparschmid@alumni.ethz.ch [Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) (United Kingdom); Gerritsen, Rianda, E-mail: rianda.gerritsen@tno.nl [TNO (Netherlands); Aitken, Rob, E-mail: rob.aitken@iom-world.org [Institute of Occupational Medicine (IOM) (United Kingdom); Vaquero, Celina, E-mail: celina.vaquero@tecnalia.com [TECNALIA Research and Innovation (Spain); Gkanis, Vasileios, E-mail: v_gkanis@hotmail.com; Housiadas, Christos, E-mail: christos@ipta.demokritos.gr [National Center for Scientific Research ' Demokritos' (Greece); Ipina, Jesus Maria Lopez de, E-mail: jesus.lopezdeipina@tecnalia.com [TECNALIA Research and Innovation (Spain); Riediker, Michael, E-mail: michael.riediker@hospvd.ch [Institute for Work and Health (IST) (Switzerland)

2012-09-15

The aim of this paper is to describe the process and challenges in building exposure scenarios for engineered nanomaterials (ENM), using an exposure scenario format similar to that used for the European Chemicals regulation (REACH). Over 60 exposure scenarios were developed based on information from publicly available sources (literature, books, and reports), publicly available exposure estimation models, occupational sampling campaign data from partnering institutions, and industrial partners regarding their own facilities. The primary focus was on carbon-based nanomaterials, nano-silver (nano-Ag) and nano-titanium dioxide (nano-TiO{sub 2}), and included occupational and consumer uses of these materials with consideration of the associated environmental release. The process of building exposure scenarios illustrated the availability and limitations of existing information and exposure assessment tools for characterizing exposure to ENM, particularly as it relates to risk assessment. This article describes the gaps in the information reviewed, recommends future areas of ENM exposure research, and proposes types of information that should, at a minimum, be included when reporting the results of such research, so that the information is useful in a wider context.

Emergency preparedness exercises and information. Annual report 1996. Project plans 1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-12-01

EKO-4, Emergency preparedness exercises and information exchange, consists of two sub projects. In EKO-4.1, Exercises and scenario development, a functional exercise on dose calculation has been arranged and followed up by a seminar. In addition, a seminar for intercomparison of Nordic dispersion models has been arranged bases on results from the international full scale experiment ETEX-1. Both arrangements showed to be useful for the nuclear emergency preparedness in the Nordic countries and contributed to better knowledge about the different models. Such arrangements also strengthen the personal networks. In EKO-4.1, a survey on available tools for scenario development for national and regional exercises in the Nordic country is going on. The needs from the exercise planners point of view will be focused before further development is suggested. In EKO-4.2, Nordic system for exchange of data and information, the working group has evaluated different technical solutions. The results have been presented in a report. The work with implementing the system has been delayed but it will continue next year in close co-operation with the Nordic authorities working group on emergency preparedness (NEP). A new version of the nuclear emergency preparedness handbook has been published. There is a need for further revisions and these are planned for 1997. With the new revision, the handbook will be made available on WWW. (EG)

Use of scenarios in the planning of the energy sector; Uso de escenarios en la planeacion del sector energetico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sacristan Roy, Antonio [Asociacion Mexicana para la Economia Energetica (AMEE), (Mexico)

2004-06-15

A scenario is a logical and congruent narration on the future, which describes the future in terms of the consequences on the surroundings of tendency forces (descriptive scenario) or as a result of caused changes (normative scenario). Unlike an econometric projection, that fundamentally considers economic forces, a scenario takes into consideration the impact of political, technological, social and legal forces, in addition to the economic ones, and the uncertainty of the future can be covered using several different scenarios. The construction of scenarios constitutes an extremely useful tool for long term planning of and the design of governmental policies for the energy sector. In this work an investment to twenty-five years in the national energy sector, with a long term planning of using scenarios, the design of a policy of the possible savings and bases for the future technological development and investigation effort is estimated. [Spanish] Un escenario es una narracion logica y congruente sobre el futuro, la cual describe el futuro en terminos de las consecuencias sobre el entorno de fuerzas tendenciales (escenario descriptivo) o como resultado de cambios provocados (escenario normativo). A diferencia de una proyeccion econometrica, que fundamentalmente considera fuerzas economicos, un escenario toma en consideracion el impacto de fuerzas politicas, tecnologicas, sociales y juridicas, ademas de las economicas, la incertidumbre del futuro se puede cubrir utilizando varios escenarios distintos. La construccion de escenarios constituye una herramienta sumamente util para la planeacion de largo plazo y el diseno de politicas gubernamentales para el sector energetico. En este trabajo se estima una inversion a veinticinco anos en el sector energetico nacional, con una planeacion de largo plazo utilizando escenarios, el diseno de una politica los posibles ahorros y la base para el futuro desarrollo tecnologico y esfuerzo de investigacion.

Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

Science.gov (United States)

Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

2010-03-01

Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

Scenarios of forestry carbon sequestration measures in the Russian Federation and priorities for action plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kokorin, A.O. [Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

1996-12-31

Development of forestry mitigation strategy under Russian transition economy conditions has many difficulties and specific features. The most important factors are: shortage in funds; absence of well defined legislation, rules and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure and export problems. Assessment of economic possibilities, potential, short- and middle-term measures show that strategies have to be focused on improvement and promotion of current carbon sequestration activity. Five baseline forestry scenario (No. 1) and four other scenarios (No. 2 - No. 5) for 2000-2040 were developed. Each scenario covers all forested area but provides separate analysis of 30 `forestry ecoregions`. Three types of forestry management were included in scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation (by scenarios No. 2 and No. 3); selective logging and thinning (No. 4); measures to prevent and manage fires (No. 5). The baseline scenario results in a constant net-sink of about 150 MtC/yr. An increase in clear-cut logging on the basis of current forestry practice will cause a rapid drop of net-sink. Implementation of a modest increase in clear-cut logging with active forest fire and selective logging measures could provide with a slight increase of net-sink. Consideration of scenarios helps identify regional forestry priorities for Russian Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: European-Ural: (1) creation of economy mechanism to increase forestry effectiveness on the same cutting areas, (2) assistance to natural reforestation. Central and North-East Siberia: promotion of forest fire protection system. South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie: limit of clear-cut logging and creation market situation for better forestry efficiency. The proposed Joint Implementation Vologda reforestation project which is being considered now by special bodies of the USA and the Russian Federation is in good agreement with these priorities.

Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

proved false : The “worst case” was much worse than planned for (Bensahel, Oliker, and Peterson, 2009, pp. 233ff). 26 Hoffman, 2009. 27 Ross, 2005...wisdom. Such work often has well-identified threats (named countries or groups), but not stereotyped point-case scenarios. Is such work threat-based...should be used only for narrow purposes and advertised as such. Endnotes 1 Gates, 2010, p. 90. 2 Kendall, 2013. 3 Boerman, 2013; Tompkins, Boerman, and

Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of "Brexit".

Science.gov (United States)

Boden, Lisa A; Auty, Harriet; Reeves, Aaron; Rydevik, Gustaf; Bessell, Paul; McKendrick, Iain J

2017-01-01

Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological "risk factors") and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health

Multicriteria optimization informed VMAT planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Huixiao; Craft, David L.; Gierga, David P., E-mail: dgierga@partners.org

2014-04-01

We developed a patient-specific volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) optimization procedure using dose-volume histogram (DVH) information from multicriteria optimization (MCO) of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) plans. The study included 10 patients with prostate cancer undergoing standard fractionation treatment, 10 patients with prostate cancer undergoing hypofractionation treatment, and 5 patients with head/neck cancer. MCO-IMRT plans using 20 and 7 treatment fields were generated for each patient on the RayStation treatment planning system (clinical version 2.5, RaySearch Laboratories, Stockholm, Sweden). The resulting DVH of the 20-field MCO-IMRT plan for each patient was used as the reference DVH, and the extracted point values of the resulting DVH of the MCO-IMRT plan were used as objectives and constraints for VMAT optimization. Weights of objectives or constraints of VMAT optimization or both were further tuned to generate the best match with the reference DVH of the MCO-IMRT plan. The final optimal VMAT plan quality was evaluated by comparison with MCO-IMRT plans based on homogeneity index, conformity number of planning target volume, and organ at risk sparing. The influence of gantry spacing, arc number, and delivery time on VMAT plan quality for different tumor sites was also evaluated. The resulting VMAT plan quality essentially matched the 20-field MCO-IMRT plan but with a shorter delivery time and less monitor units. VMAT plan quality of head/neck cancer cases improved using dual arcs whereas prostate cases did not. VMAT plan quality was improved by fine gantry spacing of 2 for the head/neck cancer cases and the hypofractionation-treated prostate cancer cases but not for the standard fractionation–treated prostate cancer cases. MCO-informed VMAT optimization is a useful and valuable way to generate patient-specific optimal VMAT plans, though modification of the weights of objectives or constraints extracted from resulting DVH of MCO

Intersection planning in Safer Transportation Network Planning : safety principles, planning framework, and library information.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hummel, T.

2001-01-01

This report is one in a series of publications, used in the development of the network planning tool ‘Safer Transportation Network Planning’ (Safer-TNP). The publications were used to guide the development of planning structures, diagnostic tools, planning recommendations, and research information

Strategic planning for health care management information systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenberger, H R; Kaiser, K M

1985-01-01

Using a planning methodology and a structured design technique for analyzing data and data flow, information requirements can be derived to produce a strategic plan for a management information system. Such a long-range plan classifies information groups and assigns them priorities according to the goals of the organization. The approach emphasizes user involvement.

Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Björkman, B.; Fridell, K.; Tavakol Olofsson, P.

2017-01-01

Introduction: Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025. Method: The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method. Results: Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled “Access to career advancement” and “A sufficient number of radiographers”, were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line. Conclusion: It is suggested that “The dying profession” scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of “happy radiographers” who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by “the assembly line”. - Highlights: • The world of radiography is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. • Future opportunities and threats should be identified and incorporated into the strategic planning. • Appropriate actions can probably change the

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-02-15

Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

Science.gov (United States)

Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

2016-05-01

Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

Integrated modeling of agricultural scenarios (IMAS) to support pesticide action plans: the case of the Coulonge drinking water catchment area (SW France).

Science.gov (United States)

Vernier, Françoise; Leccia-Phelpin, Odile; Lescot, Jean-Marie; Minette, Sébastien; Miralles, André; Barberis, Delphine; Scordia, Charlotte; Kuentz-Simonet, Vanessa; Tonneau, Jean-Philippe

2017-03-01

Non-point source pollution is a cause of major concern within the European Union. This is reflected in increasing public and political focus on a more sustainable use of pesticides, as well as a reduction in diffuse pollution. Climate change will likely to lead to an even more intensive use of pesticides in the future, affecting agriculture in many ways. At the same time, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and associated EU policies called for a "good" ecological and chemical status to be achieved for water bodies by the end of 2015, currently delayed to 2021-2027 due to a lack of efficiency in policies and timescale of resilience for hydrosystems, especially groundwater systems. Water managers need appropriate and user-friendly tools to design agro-environmental policies. These tools should help them to evaluate the potential impacts of mitigation measures on water resources, more clearly define protected areas, and more efficiently distribute financial incentives to farmers who agree to implement alternative practices. At present, a number of reports point out that water managers do not use appropriate information from monitoring or models to make decisions and set environmental action plans. In this paper, we propose an integrated and collaborative approach to analyzing changes in land use, farming systems, and practices and to assess their effects on agricultural pressure and pesticide transfers to waters. The integrated modeling of agricultural scenario (IMAS) framework draws on a range of data and expert knowledge available within areas where a pesticide action plan can be defined to restore the water quality, French "Grenelle law" catchment areas, French Water Development and Management Plan areas, etc. A so-called "reference scenario" represents the actual soil occupation and pesticide-spraying practices used in both conventional and organic farming. A number of alternative scenarios are then defined in cooperation with stakeholders, including socio

Optimizing perioperative decision making: improved information for clinical workflow planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Doebbeling, Bradley N; Burton, Matthew M; Wiebke, Eric A; Miller, Spencer; Baxter, Laurence; Miller, Donald; Alvarez, Jorge; Pekny, Joseph

2012-01-01

Perioperative care is complex and involves multiple interconnected subsystems. Delayed starts, prolonged cases and overtime are common. Surgical procedures account for 40-70% of hospital revenues and 30-40% of total costs. Most planning and scheduling in healthcare is done without modern planning tools, which have potential for improving access by assisting in operations planning support. We identified key planning scenarios of interest to perioperative leaders, in order to examine the feasibility of applying combinatorial optimization software solving some of those planning issues in the operative setting. Perioperative leaders desire a broad range of tools for planning and assessing alternate solutions. Our modeled solutions generated feasible solutions that varied as expected, based on resource and policy assumptions and found better utilization of scarce resources. Combinatorial optimization modeling can effectively evaluate alternatives to support key decisions for planning clinical workflow and improving care efficiency and satisfaction.

Electrical demand forecast in two different scenarios of socio-economic development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goni, M.R.

1996-01-01

A projection of electrical demand for two different scenarios is presented in the study. The study period is 1993-2010 and 1993 has been taken as base year. In this planning study MAED program was used as well as all available information from INDEC (National Statistical Body), CAMMESA (Electrical Market Company) and Ministery of Economy. The results in the base year achieved an accuracy higher than 98%. The scenarios described two different rates of growth and electrical penetration in energy uses. (author). 3 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

Experiments Toward the Application of Multi-Robot Systems to Disaster-Relief Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-01

EW LiDAR15 with a Dynamixel servo . This Hokuyo LiDAR has a 270◦ field of view, 30-m range, and 1-mm resolution. Accurate state information is achieved...in disaster-relief scenarios. 28 8. References 1. Murphy RR. Disaster robotics. MIT Press ; 2014. 2. Guizzo E. Fukushima robot operator writes tell-all...Control Conference; 28. LaValle SM. Planning algorithms. Cambridge university press ; 2006. 29. Likhachev M. Search-Based Planning Library. https

Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elisa Oteros-Rozas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

Information Communication Technology Planning in Developing Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Malapile, Sandy; Keengwe, Jared

2014-01-01

This article explores major issues related to Information Communication Technology (ICT) in education and technology planning. Using the diffusion of innovation theory, the authors examine technology planning opportunities and challenges in Developing countries (DCs), technology planning trends in schools, and existing technology planning models…

A scenario planning approach for disasters on Swiss road network

Science.gov (United States)

Mendes, G. A.; Axhausen, K. W.; Andrade, J. S.; Herrmann, H. J.

2014-05-01

We study a vehicular traffic scenario on Swiss roads in an emergency situation, calculating how sequentially roads block due to excessive traffic load until global collapse (gridlock) occurs and in this way displays the fragilities of the system. We used a database from Bundesamt für Raumentwicklung which contains length and maximum allowed speed of all roads in Switzerland. The present work could be interesting for government agencies in planning and managing for emergency logistics for a country or a big city. The model used to generate the flux on the Swiss road network was proposed by Mendes et al. [Physica A 391, 362 (2012)]. It is based on the conservation of the number of vehicles and allows for an easy and fast way to follow the formation of traffic jams in large systems. We also analyze the difference between a nonlinear and a linear model and the distribution of fluxes on the Swiss road.

Land use planning in Safer Transportation Network Planning : safety principles, planning framework, and library information.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hummel, T.

2001-01-01

This report is one in a series of publications, used in the development of the network planning tool ‘Safer Transportation Network Planning’ (Safer-TNP). The publications were used to guide the development of planning structures, diagnostic tools, planning recommendations, and research information

Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of “Brexit”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lisa A. Boden

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological “risk factors” and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and

Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of “Brexit”

Science.gov (United States)

Boden, Lisa A.; Auty, Harriet; Reeves, Aaron; Rydevik, Gustaf; Bessell, Paul; McKendrick, Iain J.

2017-01-01

Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological “risk factors”) and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health

The strategic planning of health management information systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, J

1995-01-01

This paper discusses the roles and functions of strategic planning of information systems in health services. It selects four specialised methodologies of strategic planning for analysis with respect to their applicability in the health field. It then examines the utilisation of information planning in case studies of three health organisations (two State departments of health and community services and one acute care institution). Issues arising from the analysis concern the planning process, the use to which plans are put, and implications for management.

42 CFR 495.336 - Health information technology planning advance planning document requirements (HIT PAPD).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Health information technology planning advance... STANDARDS FOR THE ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORD TECHNOLOGY INCENTIVE PROGRAM Requirements Specific to the Medicaid Program § 495.336 Health information technology planning advance planning document requirements...

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Information Management for Factory Planning and Design

OpenAIRE

Chen, Danfang

2012-01-01

This thesis is dedicated to the manufacturing industry for the improvement of information management within the factory planningand design domain, and for more efficient factory planning and design. Currently the manufacturing industry lacks sufficient methods for capturing, structuring, and representing information and knowledge for easy access, exchange, integration and reuse within the domain. Therefore the focus of this thesis is on information and knowledge management within factory plan...

Analysing urban planning implications from an electric vehicles scenario for urban structure-, transport- and energy-systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rid, Wolfgang [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl Stadtplanung und Entwerfen; Fachhochschule Erfurt (Germany). Fachgebiet Stadt- und Regionaloekonomie; Pesch, Franz; Wewer, Max; Sperle, Tilman [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl Stadtplanung und Entwerfen

2013-06-01

Depending on scenarios of actual electric vehicles on the road, ''electric mobility'' will heavily affect urban planning and infrastructure. We analyze these effects by developing an ''urban typology for electro-mobility''. By doing so, we seek to demonstrate that both requirements from electric vehicle scenarios (infrastructure, on-site provision of renewable energy etc.) and potential benefits (noise-reduction, NOx-reduction, modal-split etc.) are dependent on the urban context. The typology was developed according to preliminary studies' results recommending to use the GFZ (Gross Floor Area) and residential density to describe different types of urban structure, but additionally makes use of the proportion of public space and number of resident families (per ha net residential area) to extract five different ''urban types for electro-mobility''. Electro-mobility will have a significant climate effect only if 'green' electric power production is able to provide the additional amount of renewable energy needed. On-site power plants must be further developed to reduce externalities from large scale power plants providing C02-free energy (e.g. externalities from offshore wind energy plants). The potential to produce renewable energy from on-site power plants is dependent on the type of the urban context: Advanced ''plus-energy-concepts'' for example, today, are restricted to building scales of low-density residential zones, whereas in inner city zones, buildings have to provide energy for far more people per floorspace or for cooling purposes, as well. On-site renewable energy plants should be placed in urban settings, where they can work most efficiently and where they can be best integrated into the urban context given, hence, electro-mobility needs to be viewed from an urban perspective. Many other projects, so far, have investigated technical solutions to improve

Scenarios of the Oil Industry of Croatia and the Region: Qualitative Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radoslav Barišić

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The oil industry is historically burdened by different turbulences and tremors having the significant impact on the market. In order to anticipate unforeseen and potentially harmful situations, some firms as a part of their long-term strategic plans pay attention to scenario-based planning, which is a useful technique for preparation of appropriate strategy and responses to potential unforeseen emergencies. Scenario planning is used for a detailed analysis of the current situation in the market and potential future development, creating a research framework for creating development scenarios. Scenario planning is especially highlighted in the context of oil industry considering the technique actually originated in this business (it was also used in previous military doctrine, where, because of using a scenario-based planning, some oil companies profited and gained a privileged position. The aim of the paper is to provide an insight into the importance and various approaches in using scenario planning today and explain the potential long-term scenarios in the oil industry of Croatia and the region, obtained by means of qualitative research and in-depth interviews with a number of experts in the field of oil industry.

A life-cycle based decision-making framework for electricity generation system planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Norrie, S.J.; Fang, L. [Ryerson Polytechnic Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada). Environmental Applied Science and Management Graduate Program

2006-07-01

This paper proposed a framework for the consideration of multiple objectives in the long-term planning of electricity generation systems. The framework was comprised of 3 components: (1) information based on life-cycle inventories of electricity generation technologies; (2) a set of alternative scenarios to be evaluated and ranked using the framework; and (3) stakeholder values for decision objectives. Scenarios were developed to represent a set of future conditions, and values were derived through the use of questionnaires. Planning for electricity generation in Ontario was selected as a test case for the DM framework. Three scenarios were presented: (1) a business as usual scenario characterized by large, central power plants; (2) a mix of central power plants, distributed generation, and advanced conventional fuel technologies; and (3) small-scale distributed and renewable energy sources and aggressive demand-side management. The life-cycle based information from the scenario evaluation was used to estimate the performance of each scenario on the established decision criteria. Results showed that scenario 3 was the closest to achieving the fundamental objectives according to the decision criteria. It was concluded that the DM framework showed that the use of holistic environmental information and preferential information for multiple objectives can be integrated into a framework that openly and consistently evaluates a set of alternative scenarios. 31 refs., 7 tabs., 4 figs.

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

Science.gov (United States)

Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

2011-01-07

No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Epstein Richard H

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

Emerging Requirements for Technology Management: A Sector-based Scenario Planning Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Patrick Philbin

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Identifying the emerging requirements for technology management will help organisations to prepare for the future and remain competitive. Indeed technology management as a discipline needs to develop and respond to societal and industrial needs as well as the corresponding technology challenges. Therefore, following a review of technology forecasting methodologies, a sector-based scenario planning approach has been used to derive the emerging requirements for technology management. This structured framework provided an analytical lens to focus on the requirements for managing technology in the healthcare, energy and higher education sectors over the next 5-10 years. These requirements include the need for new business models to support the adoption of technologies; integration of new technologies with existing delivery channels; management of technology options including R&D project management; technology standards, validation and interoperability; and decision-making tools to support technology investment.

Application of Scenario Analysis and Multiagent Technique in Land-Use Planning: A Case Study on Sanjiang Wetlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huan Yu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA method and multiagent system (MAS simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

Application of scenario analysis and multiagent technique in land-use planning: a case study on Sanjiang wetlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Huan; Ni, Shi-Jun; Kong, Bo; He, Zheng-Wei; Zhang, Cheng-Jiang; Zhang, Shu-Qing; Pan, Xin; Xia, Chao-Xu; Li, Xuan-Qiong

2013-01-01

Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA) method and multiagent system (MAS) simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

Science.gov (United States)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

Information Systems for University Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Robert J.

This paper proposes construction of a separate data base environment for university planning information, distinct from data bases and systems supporting operational functioning and management. The data base would receive some of its input from the management information systems (MIS)/transactional data bases and systems through a process of…

Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

Science.gov (United States)

Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

2014-01-01

The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

POT: Planning, Organisation and Tele-Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

1996-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the framwork of a research project carried out at the Technical University of Denmark dealing with 'holistic' and interdisciplinary (systems oriented)methods for strategic planning and organisational re-design in connection with the introduction...... of tele-information technologies and hte new demands of hte so-called information society, the POT proejct. Three specirfic projects are shortly introduced: planning in networked firms, strategic approaches to climate change and strategies for the schools of the future....

Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baležentis, Tomas; Streimikiene, Dalia

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Two advanced optimization models were applied for EU energy policy scenarios development. • Several advanced MCDA were applied for energy policy scenarios ranking: WASPAS, ARAS, TOPSIS. • A Monte Carlo simulation was applied for sensitivity analysis of scenarios ranking. • New policy insights in terms of energy scenarios forecasting were provided based on research conducted. - Abstract: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow

Consultancy on Strategic Information Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Pejova, Zdravka, Ed.; Horton, Forest W., Ed.

At the workshop, better management through strategic planning of information and consultancy was discussed as one way in which developing and Eastern European countries could tackle the complex information problems they are facing during the transition to a market economy. The sixteen papers in this volume are grouped into three basic categories:…

Information security management system planning for CBRN facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lenaeu, Joseph D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); O' Neil, Lori Ross [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Leitch, Rosalyn M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Glantz, Clifford S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Landine, Guy P. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bryant, Janet L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Lewis, John [National Nuclear Lab., Workington (United Kingdom); Mathers, Gemma [National Nuclear Lab., Workington (United Kingdom); Rodger, Robert [National Nuclear Lab., Workington (United Kingdom); Johnson, Christopher [National Nuclear Lab., Workington (United Kingdom)

2015-12-01

The focus of this document is to provide guidance for the development of information security management system planning documents at chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) facilities. It describes a risk-based approach for planning information security programs based on the sensitivity of the data developed, processed, communicated, and stored on facility information systems.

Information security management system planning for CBRN facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lenaeu, Joseph D.; O'Neil, Lori Ross; Leitch, Rosalyn M.; Glantz, Clifford S.; Landine, Guy P.; Bryant, Janet L.; Lewis, John; Mathers, Gemma; Rodger, Robert; Johnson, Christopher

2015-01-01

The focus of this document is to provide guidance for the development of information security management system planning documents at chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) facilities. It describes a risk-based approach for planning information security programs based on the sensitivity of the data developed, processed, communicated, and stored on facility information systems.

Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

2017-12-01

There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

Enterprise Architecture Planning in developing A planning Information System: a Case Study of Semarang State University

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Budiman Kholiq

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This research has applied an integrated design and development of planning information system, which is been designed using Enterprise Architecture Planning. Frequent discrepancy between planning and realization of the budget that has been made, resulted in ineffective planning, is one of the reason for doing this research. The design using EAP aims to keep development aligned and in line with the strategic direction of the organization. In the practice, EAP is carried out in several stages of the planning initiation, identification and definition of business functions, proceeded with architectural design and EA implementation plan that has been built. In addition to the design of the Enterprise Architecture, this research carried out the implementation, and was tested by several methods of black box and white box. Black box testing method is used to test the fundamental aspects of the software, tested by two kinds of testing, first is using User Acceptance Testing and the second is using software functionality testing. White box testing method is used to test the effectiveness of the code in the software, tested using unit testing. Tests conducted using white box and black box on the integrated planning information system, is declared successful. Success in the software testing can not be ascertained if the software built has not shown any distinction from prior circumstance to the development of this integrated planning information system. For ensuring the success of this system implementation, the authors test consistency between the planning of data and the realization of prior-use of the information system, until after-use information system. This consistency test is done by reducing the time data of the planning and realization time. From the tabulated data, the planning information system that has been built reduces the difference between the planning time and the realization time, in which indicates that the planning information system

Enterprise Architecture Planning in developing A planning Information System: a Case Study of Semarang State University

Science.gov (United States)

Budiman, Kholiq; Prahasto, Toni; Kusumawardhani, Amie

2018-02-01

This research has applied an integrated design and development of planning information system, which is been designed using Enterprise Architecture Planning. Frequent discrepancy between planning and realization of the budget that has been made, resulted in ineffective planning, is one of the reason for doing this research. The design using EAP aims to keep development aligned and in line with the strategic direction of the organization. In the practice, EAP is carried out in several stages of the planning initiation, identification and definition of business functions, proceeded with architectural design and EA implementation plan that has been built. In addition to the design of the Enterprise Architecture, this research carried out the implementation, and was tested by several methods of black box and white box. Black box testing method is used to test the fundamental aspects of the software, tested by two kinds of testing, first is using User Acceptance Testing and the second is using software functionality testing. White box testing method is used to test the effectiveness of the code in the software, tested using unit testing. Tests conducted using white box and black box on the integrated planning information system, is declared successful. Success in the software testing can not be ascertained if the software built has not shown any distinction from prior circumstance to the development of this integrated planning information system. For ensuring the success of this system implementation, the authors test consistency between the planning of data and the realization of prior-use of the information system, until after-use information system. This consistency test is done by reducing the time data of the planning and realization time. From the tabulated data, the planning information system that has been built reduces the difference between the planning time and the realization time, in which indicates that the planning information system can motivate the

Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

2008-01-01

...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

Information seeking stopping behavior in online scenarios the impact of task, technology and individual characteristics

CERN Document Server

Hemmer, Erik

2014-01-01

The growing amount of information provided via web-based information technologies forces the users of these technologies to stop seeking for information before having acquired all available information. This stopping decision is either made actively following clear guidelines or subconsciously based on the seeker's intuition. This book analyzes the aforementioned duality by developing and testing a multi-theoretical research model dealing with information seeking stopping behavior in online scenarios. Thus, by delivering insights into the mechanisms that influence information seeking activitie

Social Media Geographic Information in Tourism Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberta Floris

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Social media are playing an increasingly important role as information resource in tourism both for customers (i.e. the tourists, who gather trustworthy information supporting the choice of destinations and services from peers, and for businesses, which can use the same information for improving their marketing strategies. The use of social media data can also offer new opportunities for decision-support in tourism planning. With improved understanding of the motivations of tourists and tailoring tourism service supply, decision making can be facilitated by emphasizing the strengths of tourist destinations for past and potential visitors. However, this kind of information about tourists perceptions and opinions is not always properly analysed by planners. Understanding the user satisfaction, which depends on factors related to both the location and the services that the local industry proposes, may offer valuable information in tourism planning at regional and local level.  In the light of the above premises, the goal of the study presented in this paper is to propose an integrated approach to investigate the relationships between tourists satisfaction, destination resources and tourism industry for supporting design and decision-making in regional tourism planning. The methodology developed in the study includes data collection from popular tourism social media platforms (i.e. Booking.com and TripAdvisor.com.com, and their integration with territorial and tourism data. Spatial and statistical analysis techniques are then applied to elicit insights from tourists perceptions on success factors which may be used in decision-making and planning support. The case study demonstrates the value of social media data and computational social science techniques in tourism planning. The paper concludes with a critical discussion on the potential of using such an approach in more general urban and regional planning setting.

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

National plan for adaptation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

This report first explains the rationale for such a plan, and discusses the costs associated to climate change impacts. It presents two scenarios for climate change in France during the 21. century, highlights the weight of uncertainty for the results of these scenarios, and indicates some current consequences. Then, it presents the Plan content and gives an overview of the Plan governance and evaluation. It proposes a set of action sheets which contain the main adopted measures and briefly describe some implemented or projected actions. These sheets concern the different fields of application of the plan: cross-cutting actions, health, water resources, biodiversity, natural hazards, agriculture, forest, fishery and aquaculture, energy and industry, transport infrastructures and systems, urban planning and built environment, tourism, information, education and training, research, finance and insurance, coasts, mountains, European and international actions, governance

The population program shifts to 'high-scenario' targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Aragon-choudury, P

1986-01-01

The Philippine Population Program would like to achieve a replacement level of 1 daughter per childbearing woman by the year 2000 to reduce the population growth rate to 2% by 1992. Laing projected that high performance by the National Population Program would mean continued increase of sterilization prevalence at an average 1978-1983 rate. Strategies have been adopted to strengthen information-education-communication efforts, to attain higher contraceptive prevalence rates and use-effectiveness, to develop manpower, to achieve self-reliance, and to effect better program coordination, monitoring, research use. Effective service delivery will be a key to achieving the high-scenario targets. Effective use of natural family planning (NFP), will help in achieving the high-scenario goals. Apart from the heavy demand on NFP follow-up, need for prompt delivery of supplies, and lack of doctors and nurses, other factors may impede the high-scenario targets. Saniel believes that program workers should be allowed to insert IUDs and to dispense pills. Under the cost-recovery and cost-sharing schemes of the high-scenario targets, only sterilization will be done for free. It might affect the campaign for increased acceptors, but the start for self-reliance must happen now.

The Hospital Information Planning Study at Groote Schuur Hospital ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Information is an increasingly important resource in an academic hospital. Effective planning and control of this resource are essential in order to maximize its usefulness. Tile HOspital Information Planning Study (HIPS) undertaken at Groote Schuur Hospital, and based on. the Business Systems Planning (BSP) ...

Market-based demand forecasting promotes informed strategic financial planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Beech, A J

2001-11-01

Market-based demand forecasting is a method of estimating future demand for a healthcare organization's services by using a broad range of data that describe the nature of demand within the organization's service area. Such data include the primary and secondary service areas, the service-area populations by various demographic groupings, discharge utilization rates, market size, and market share by service line and organizationwide. Based on observable market dynamics, strategic planners can make a variety of explicit assumptions about future trends regarding these data to develop scenarios describing potential future demand. Financial planners then can evaluate each scenario to determine its potential effect on selected financial and operational measures, such as operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt-service coverage, and develop a strategic financial plan that covers a range of contingencies.

76 FR 58020 - Prescription Drug User Fee Act IV Information Technology Plan

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-19

...] Prescription Drug User Fee Act IV Information Technology Plan AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS. ACTION... information technology (IT) plan entitled ``PDUFA IV Information Technology Plan'' (updated plan) to achieve... Information Technology Plan.'' This plan will meet one of the performance goals agreed to under the 2007...

Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeremy K. Caves

2013-09-01

Full Text Available There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision making and adaptive management (CAM have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We detail the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA, a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM. The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: (1 shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; (2 relevant and reliable scientific information; (3 mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision making; and (4 shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. However, the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control, including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets, with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. Although the CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing the externalities that drive uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: (1 creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives that may be crucial to maintaining ecological resilience from those that may hinder a flexible

Information Security: USDA Needs to Implement Its Departmentwide Information Security Plan

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2000-01-01

USDA has taken positive steps to begin improving its information security by developing its August 1999 Action Plan with recommendations to strengthen department-wide information security and hiring...

International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

1999-01-01

The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

Participative planning and information flow within management control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomasz Dyczkowski

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The paper examines the relationships between two different approaches to planning processes (participa- tive and non-participative and information flows within management control in companies. It augments the existing theoretical and empirical research by coupling management control and management infor- mation with participative planning, not only in operational but also in the strategic perspective. The re- sults presented in the paper stem from two consecutive studies, conducted between November 2010 and January 2012 and between November 2013 and January 2014. The studies comprised 397 and 179 Polish companies respectively. The authors formulated two hypotheses linking participative planning with upward and downward management information flows. The paper employed a quantitative approach, using the Spearman rank correlation analysis and hierarchical clustering using the Ward method, which enabled comparative analyses both in reference to various groups of companies included in particular research samples and over time. The results obtained showed the positive influence of participative plan- ning both on upward and downward information flows in enterprises. In particular, participative planning reduced information imbalances between top (the management and lower (employees of functional departments tiers in organisation structures.

Physics-Aware Informative Coverage Planning for Autonomous Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-01

Physics-Aware Informative Coverage Planning for Autonomous Vehicles Michael J. Kuhlman1, Student Member, IEEE, Petr Švec2, Member, IEEE, Krishnanand...Physics-Aware Informative Coverage Planning for Autonomous Vehicles 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d

Scenario-based transportation planning with involvement of metropolitan planning organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

The Office of Virginia's Secretary of Transportation identified 21 transportation policies and 42 performance criteria in Virginia's long-range multimodal transportation plan, VTrans2025. A subsequent planning effort, VTrans2035, provided direction f...

Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

2015-01-01

This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar......'s contribution is to suggest how scenario planning can engage with design, resulting in new opportunities for research and projects. These modes of engagement provide a framing to explore dialogues between other management disciplines.......This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinary...... management research, which struggles to connect research and practice. The authors describe how they brought the two fields together. We outline how we convened, designed and facilitated the fourth Oxford Futures Forum held in May 2014. This event brought together leading practitioners and researchers...

Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hosmer, Hilary

2000-01-01

.... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Fiscal years 1994--1998 Information Technology Strategic Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-11-01

A team of senior managers from across the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), working with the Office of Information Resources Management (IRM), has completed an NRC Strategic Information Technology (IT) Plan. The Plan addresses three major areas: (1) IT Program Management, (2) IT Infrastructure, and (3) Information and Applications Management. Key recommendations call for accelerating the replacement of Agency workstations, implementing a new document management system, applying business process reengineering to selected Agency work processes, and establishing an Information Technology Council to advise the Director of IRM

FY 1991--FY 1995 Information Technology Resources Long-Range Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1989-12-01

The Department of Energy has consolidated its plans for Information Systems, Computing Resources, and Telecommunications into a single document, the Information Technology Resources Long-Range Plan. The consolidation was done as a joint effort by the Office of ADP Management and the Office of Computer Services and Telecommunications Management under the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Administration, Information, and Facilities Management. This Plan is the product of a long-range planning process used to project both future information technology requirements and the resources necessary to meet those requirements. It encompasses the plans of the various organizational components within the Department and its management and operating contractors over the next 5 fiscal years, 1991 through 1995.

Geographic information system planning and monitoring best ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Poor urbanization policies, inefficient planning and monitoring technologies are evident. The consequences include some of the worst types of environmental hazards. Best urbanization practices require integrated planning approaches that result in environmental conservation. Geographic Information systems (GIS) provide ...

Basic Concepts Required in the Development of a Planning Information System.

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, F. D.

This report, the result of developmental research on a planning information system for North Carolina, describes the planning process at higher levels of State government, defines a general information system and derives a planning information system from various types of planning, provides guidelines for system design and evaluation, and…

33 CFR 151.26 - Shipboard oil pollution emergency plans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... pollution incident has occurred or is likely to occur. The plan contains all information and operational... the plan must contain a discussion of procedures to address the following scenarios: (i) Operational... transferring cargo or bunkers to empty or slack tanks, or readying pumps to transfer the excess ashore; (C...

Preparing strategic information management plans for hospitals: a practical guideline SIM plans for hospitals: a guideline.

Science.gov (United States)

Brigl, B; Ammenwerth, E; Dujat, C; Gräber, S; Grosse, A; Häber, A; Jostes, C; Winter, A

2005-01-01

Systematic information management in hospitals demands for a strategic information management plan (SIM plan). As preparing a SIM plan is a considerable challenge we provide a practical guideline that is directly applicable when a SIM plan is going to be prepared. The guideline recommends a detailed structure of a SIM plan and gives advice about its content and the preparation process. It may be used as template, which can be adapted to the individual demands of any hospital. The guideline was used in several hospitals preparing a SIM plan. Experiences showed that the SIM plans could be prepared very efficiently and timely using the guideline, that the proposed SIM plan structure suited well, that the guideline offers enough flexibility to meet the requirements of the individual hospitals and that the specific recommendations of the guideline were very helpful. Nevertheless, we must strive for a more comprehensive theory of strategic information management planning which -- in the sense of enterprise architecture planning -- represents the intrinsic correlations of the different parts of a SIM plan to a greater extent.

Planning Study Hospital, Cape Town The Hospital Information at ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Tile HOspital Information Plan- ning Study ... Hospital, and based on. the Business Systems Plan- ... technology can be of considerable benefit in dealing with these issues. .... coherenr, flexible information systems with a minimum of data.

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Corporate planning and LAN information systems as forums

CERN Document Server

Sabre, Ru Michael

1992-01-01

Corporate Planning and LAN: Information Systems as Forums provides information pertinent to the Forum Information System (FIS), a conceptual basis for all corporate planning. This book presents an information system which, by means of LAN, organizational development style prototyping, and organizational learning utilization, can open communications among managers, executives, owners, and employees in a corporate setting.Organized into 10 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the four phases to the eventual use of the FIS in a corporate setting. This text then explores FIS as part of a

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

An Evaluation of Dismantling Scenarios Using a Computer Simulation Technology for KRR-1 and 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S.K.; Park, H.S.; Lee, K.W.; Oh, W.Z.; Park, J.H.

2006-01-01

A graphic simulation has been used to design and verify new equipment and has also been expanded to virtual prototyping technology [1∼5]. In the nuclear decommissioning field, this technology has been utilized to validate the design of dismantling processes and to check the interferences and collisions in dismantling scenarios. However, a graphic simulation only provides us with visible result it just provides us with illustrative information of the decommissioning process. A scenario evaluation program has been developed using the computer simulation technology to create an efficient decommissioning plan. In the D and D planning stage, it is important that the scenarios are evaluated from a engineering point of view because the decommissioning work has to be executed economically and safely following the best scenarios. Therefore, we need several modules to evaluate scenarios. We composed the systems like this: 1. Decommissioning DB module for managing the decommissioning activity information (nuclear facility data, worker's data, radioactive inventory date, etc.). Dismantling process evaluation module 3. Visualization module for a radioactive inventory and a dismantling process using 3D CAD and virtual reality technology. 4. Analysis module for the evaluation results of a dismantling process. The evaluation module's capabilities produce a dismantling schedule, quantify radioactive waste, visualize a radioactive inventory, estimate a decommissioning cost, estimate a worker's exposure, and check for interference/collisions. After using the simulation results, the expert ranking system to evaluate scenarios for economics and worker's safety are implemented. The expert ranking system is a powerful and flexible decision making process to help set priorities and make the best decisions when both the qualitative and quantitative aspects of a decision need to be considered. By reducing complex decisions to a series of one-on-one comparisons, then synthesizing the

Information architecture. Volume 1, The foundations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-03-01

The Information Management Planning and Architecture Coordinating Team was formed to establish an information architecture framework to meet DOE`s current and future information needs. This department- wide activity was initiated in accordance with the DOE Information Management Strategic Plan; it also supports the Departmental Strategic Plan. It recognizes recent changes in emphasis as reflected in OMB Circular A-130 and the Information Resources Management Planning Process Improvement Team recommendations. Sections of this document provides the foundation for establishing DOE`s Information Architecture: Background, Business Case (reduced duplication of effort, increased integration of activities, improved operational capabilities), Baseline (technology baseline currently in place within DOE), Vision (guiding principles for future DOE Information Architecture), Standards Process, Policy and Process Integration (describes relations between information architecture and business processes), and Next Steps. Following each section is a scenario. A glossary of terms is provided.

Integrated scenarios of regional development in Ceará and Piauí

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Gaiser, T.; Krol, M.S; Frischkorn, H.; de Araújo, J.C.

2003-01-01

Scenarios of the future are an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative-quantitative scenarios which show potential developments of

Using TELOS for the planning of the information system audit

Science.gov (United States)

Drljaca, D. P.; Latinovic, B.

2018-01-01

This paper intent is to analyse different aspects of information system audit and to synthesise them into the feasibility study report in order to facilitate decision making and planning of information system audit process. The TELOS methodology provides a comprehensive and holistic review for making feasibility study in general. This paper examines the use of TELOS in the identification of possible factors that may influence the decision on implementing information system audit. The research question relates to TELOS provision of sufficient information to decision makers to plan an information system audit. It was found that the TELOS methodology can be successfully applied in the process of approving and planning of information system audit. The five aspects of the feasibility study, if performed objectively, can provide sufficient information to decision makers to commission an information system audit, and also contribute better planning of the audit. Using TELOS methodology can assure evidence-based and cost-effective decision-making process and facilitate planning of the audit. The paper proposes an original approach, not examined until now. It is usual to use TELOS for different purposes and when there is a need for conveying of the feasibility study, but not in the planning of the information system audit. This gives originality to the paper and opens further research questions about evaluation of the feasibility study and possible research on comparative and complementary methodologies.

Planning nature in urbanized countries. An analysis of monetary and non-monetary impacts of conservation policy scenarios in the Netherlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frans J. Sijtsma

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Planning and conserving nature areas are challenging tasks in urbanized and intensively used countries like the Netherlands. This paper supports decision making and public policy debate about these tasks in both an empirical and a methodological way. Empirically, we explore policy alternatives by determining the potential consequences of different nature policy scenarios in the Netherlands. Methodologically, we employ a mixed monetary and non-monetary evaluation method known as multi-criteria cost-benefit analysis (MCCBA. We evaluate four new future directions of Dutch nature policy that address four dominant stakeholder demands: biodiversity conservation, the provision of ecosystem services, recreational potential as well as economic gains. To balance compact presentation of evaluation outcomes on the one hand and information richness of results on the other, we distinguish between two impact indicator sets: three “headline” and ten “elaborate” indicators. Using these indicators we discuss the quantitative assessment of the four nature policy scenarios by comparing them to two other scenarios, reflecting the 2010 stand-still baseline situation (2010 as well as a reference policy (Trend. In total, we evaluate six scenarios; four present new directions and two reflect existing or recently (2010 halted practices. Our findings first of all show that even in an urbanized country like the Netherlands, with its intensive competition among land use functions, serious gains in national and international biodiversity are possible. Second, we find that it is doubtful whether stimulating the provision of regulating ecosystem services in a country which applies intensive and profitable agricultural techniques is beneficial. Other countries or areas that are less suitable for intensive agricultural practices may be more logical for this. Finally we demonstrate that increasing urban recreational green space − a common challenge for many urban areas

Planning nature in urbanized countries. An analysis of monetary and non-monetary impacts of conservation policy scenarios in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Sijtsma, Frans J; van der Bilt, Willem G M; van Hinsberg, Arjen; de Knegt, Bart; van der Heide, Martijn; Leneman, Hans; Verburg, René

2017-03-01

Planning and conserving nature areas are challenging tasks in urbanized and intensively used countries like the Netherlands. This paper supports decision making and public policy debate about these tasks in both an empirical and a methodological way. Empirically, we explore policy alternatives by determining the potential consequences of different nature policy scenarios in the Netherlands. Methodologically, we employ a mixed monetary and non-monetary evaluation method known as multi-criteria cost-benefit analysis (MCCBA). We evaluate four new future directions of Dutch nature policy that address four dominant stakeholder demands: biodiversity conservation, the provision of ecosystem services, recreational potential as well as economic gains. To balance compact presentation of evaluation outcomes on the one hand and information richness of results on the other, we distinguish between two impact indicator sets: three "headline" and ten "elaborate" indicators. Using these indicators we discuss the quantitative assessment of the four nature policy scenarios by comparing them to two other scenarios, reflecting the 2010 stand-still baseline situation (2010) as well as a reference policy (Trend). In total, we evaluate six scenarios; four present new directions and two reflect existing or recently (2010) halted practices. Our findings first of all show that even in an urbanized country like the Netherlands, with its intensive competition among land use functions, serious gains in national and international biodiversity are possible. Second, we find that it is doubtful whether stimulating the provision of regulating ecosystem services in a country which applies intensive and profitable agricultural techniques is beneficial. Other countries or areas that are less suitable for intensive agricultural practices may be more logical for this. Finally we demonstrate that increasing urban recreational green space - a common challenge for many urban areas - can only be achieved at

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

2016-07-24

There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

Robust planning of sanitation services in urban informal settlements: An analytical framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitt, Rafael J P; Morgenroth, Eberhard; Larsen, Tove A

2017-03-01

New types of sanitation services are emerging to tackle the sanitation crisis in informal settlements. These services link toilet facilities to semi-decentralized treatment plants via frequent, road-based transport of excreta. However, information for the planning of such sanitation services is scarce, and their future operating conditions are highly uncertain. The key questions of this paper are therefore: a) what are the drivers behind success or failure of a service-based sanitation system in informal settlements and b) on what scales and under which conditions can such a system operate successfully? To answer these questions, already at an early stage of the planning process, we introduce a stochastic model to analyze a wide range of system designs under varying technical designs, socio-economic factors, and spatial condition. Based on these initial results, we design a sanitation service and use the numeric model to study its reliability and costs over a wide range of scales, i.e., system capacities, from very few to many hundred users per semi-decentralized treatment unit. Key findings are that such a system can only operate within a narrow, but realistic range of conditions. Key requirements are toilet facilities, which can be serviced rapidly, and a flexible workforce. A high density of facilities will also lower the costs. Under these premises, we develop a road-based sanitation service and model its functionality in different settings and under many scenarios. Results show that the developed sanitation system using a single vehicle is scalable (100-700 users), can provide reliable service, and can be cheap (settlements and presents a quantitative framework for designing such systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

20 CFR 668.720 - What information must these planning documents contain?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What information must these planning... 166 Planning/Funding Process § 668.720 What information must these planning documents contain? (a) The... planning instructions issued by the Department, the comprehensive services plan must describe in narrative...

Planning Support Systems (PSS-Based Spatial Plan Alternatives and Environmental Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hee-Sun Choi

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Spatial planning is at the core of national land and urban development. Many countries and cities seek sustainable development through various means such as coordinated environmental planning, environmental assessment, and internalization of environmental analysis and planning. A Planning Support System (PSS is a GIS (Geographic Information System-based, spatial decision-making support system that incorporates a variety of theories and pertinent models. This study adopted the “What if?” model to design an alternative spatial plan that includes generation of predictive scenarios and is relatively easy to use. In the cities studied, we identified a total of six scenarios based on the main drivers of development—namely, population and spatial policies. Subsequently, we assessed the alternatives for their environmental impact, preparing sensitivity maps for each major environmental issue in the target area (natural ecosystem, air and microclimate, natural disasters. One projected advantage of the “What if?” model is that its digital visualization of proposed plans may improve public awareness and involvement. Furthermore, the tool is expected to be highly useful in ensuring the objectivity of quantitative analyses. However, it is necessary to develop a PSS that is both standardized and tailored to the particular needs of each area. Finally, the development of an e-governance system will be beneficial in ensuring public access to the decision making process.

Enhancement on infectious diseases nursing plan information system.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Mei-Lin; Hao, Te-Hui; Hsu, Chien-Yeh

2009-01-01

Based on researches, the most time-consuming nursing activities, in teaching hospital, are: room patrols, the blood pressure survey, the body temperature pulse breath survey, the nursing record maintenance. The nursing record is one way to communicate data. It can allow the medical service team to understand what measures the nursing staff once did for sickness, as well as responses from sickness. Nevertheless, it is the key component to utilize the record with a clinical nursing plan, so as to provide a proficient health management. Since the maintenance of nursing plan is costly and time-consuming, therefore, it is essential to establish the nursing plan information system, which can effectively promote the nursing quality. This research main body comes from one infectious disease division nursing plan information system, which was developed in 1992, and its data base covers entire courtyard compatibility and various faculties characteristic nursing plan. The nursing staff often complained that this system is not user-friendly, its contents are not comprehensive, and sometimes it does not let staff choose the right diagnosis. Therefore this research is based on history analysis and the questionnaire survey procedure first, the infectious disease nursing plan use number of times, the frequency and the project content, then by the literature scientific theory and result of the improvement group discussion together. The original 38 infectious disease division nursing plan will be expanded to 45 nursing plans. Moreover, the common 38 infectious disease code (ICD-9), and its corresponding diagnosis items, shall automatically appear in the disease diagnose code field, so it would be better off for the nursing staff to set up the nursing plan efficiently. Infectious disease division nursing plan information system utilization ratio is promoted 9.6-folds, according to research outcome. Each task consumes 3.68 minutes beforehand-including computer program operation, the

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edyta Bielinska-Dusza

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the study, principal objectives, scope of the investigation, methods employed results and principal conclusion. Uncertainty makes both theoreticians and practicioners face new tasks to fulfil. Enterprises, in order to win the competitive struggle must constantly improve their processes and structures. On the other hand, thinking in the categories of the future becomes really difficult nowadays. This creates particularly convenient conditions to apply scenario methods. In connection with the above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the essence of scenario methods employed in enterprise development. The article addresses the issue of factors conditioning proper selection of methods in the enterprise development process, the principles of scenario planning and the opportunities to apply other techniques and methods in scenario planning.

Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

2014-01-01

The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

Access management in Safer Transportation Network Planning : safety principles, planning framework, and library information.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hummel, T.

2001-01-01

This report is one in a series of publications, used in the development of the network planning tool ‘Safer Transportation Network Planning’ (Safer-TNP). The publications were used to guide the development of planning structures, diagnostic tools, planning recommendations, and research information

Route management in Safer Transportation Network Planning : safety principles, planning framework, and library information.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hummel, T.

2001-01-01

This report is one in a series of publications, used in the development of the network planning tool ‘Safer Transportation Network Planning’ (Safer-TNP). The publications were used to guide the development of planning structures, diagnostic tools, planning recommendations, and research information

Information management in process planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutters, Diederick; Wijnker, T.C.; Kals, H.J.J.

1999-01-01

A recently proposed reference model indicates the use of structured information as the basis for the control of design and manufacturing processes. The model is used as a basis to describe the integration of design and process planning. A differentiation is made between macro- and micro process

Strategic planning: Identifying organization information requirements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moise, C.S.

1993-12-01

Historically, information resource management has been left to the ``data processing`` arm of the organization. With technological movements away from centralized mainframe-based information processing toward distributed client/server-based information processing, almost every part of an organization is becoming more involved with the information technology itself, and certainly more involved with budgeting for the technology. However, users and buyers of information technology frequently remain dependent upon the information systems department for planning what users need and should buy. This paper reviews techniques for identifying requirements throughout an organization and structuring information resources to meet organizational needs. This will include basing information resource needs on meeting business needs, utilizing ``internal`` and ``external`` information resource planners, using information mapping, assessing information resources, and developing partnerships.

'Netherlands in Triplicate' in detail. Comments to the scenario study 'Nederland in Drievoud' (Netherlands in Triplicate) of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamminga, K.J.; Slotegraaf, G.; Van der Knoop, J.

1995-08-01

In 1992 the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) published the scenario studies 'Scanning the Future' and 'Nederland in Drievoud' (Netherlands in Triplicate or NiD). 'Scanning the Future' concerns the development of the world economy in the period 1990-2015, NiD concerns the development of the Dutch economy in the period 1990-2015. In this report comments are made regarding NiD. Chapter 1 focuses on the background and the goals of the NiD scenarios. These scenarios are projective, according to the CPB. The analytical framework or vision is based on the comparative strength analysis of the current state of the world economy and on the expected trends and challenges which might strongly influence the development of the world economy. The first chapter also deals with the assumptions chosen by the CPB. It is concluded that the CPB was searching for a balance between plausibility and provocation. If a scenario becomes too plausible their goal ('shaking up of mental maps') will not be achieved, whereas unreal predictions are irrelevant for policy makers. In chapter 2 the general scenario methodology is discussed and a scenario typology is derived including criteria which a well constructed scenario should meet. A distinction is made between scenarios, that are projective or explorative forecasting, and scenarios that are prospective, or speculative forecasting. Also another distinction is made: autonomous scenarios versus policy scenarios. Chapter 3 contains a closer look at the CPB study, based on the methodological considerations of Chapter 2. It is concluded that in the process of scenario development the goal was to create a coherent picture, fitting the assumptions on economic and human behaviour. The policy measures also had to match these assumptions. However, these assumptions imply certain norms and values. Therefore the NiD scenarios are rather prospective than projective. 3 figs., 1 tab., 26 refs., 2 appendices

A framework for considering climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : lessons learned from an interagency pilot project on Cape Cod.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-01

The Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Pilot Project utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multi-agency transportation- and land use-focused development strategy for Cape Cod, Massachusetts, with the intention of ach...

Development of a district information system for water management planning and strategic decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Loukas, A.; Tzabiras, J.; Spiliotopoulos, M.; Kokkinos, K.; Fafoutis, C.; Mylopoulos, N.

2015-06-01

The overall objective of this work is the development of a District Information System (DIS) which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of a district day-to-day water management as well as for planning and strategic decisionmaking. The DIS was developed from a GIS-based modeling approach, which integrates a generic crop model and a hydraulic model of the transport/distribution system, using land use maps generated by Landsat TM imagery. The main sub-objectives are: (i) the development of an operational algorithm to retrieve crop evapotranspiration from remote sensing data, (ii) the development of an information system with friendly user interface for the data base, the crop module and the hydraulic module and (iii) the analysis and validation of management scenarios from model simulations predicting the respective behavior. The Lake Karla watershed is used in this study, but the overall methodology could be used as a basis for future analysis elsewhere. Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) was used to derive monthly actual evapotranspiration (ET) values from Landsat TM imagery. Meteorological data from the archives of the Institute for Research and Technology, Thessaly (I.RE.TE.TH) has also been used. The methodology was developed using high quality Landsat TM images during 2007 growing season. Monthly ET values are used as an input to CROPWAT model. Outputs of CROPWAT model are then used as input for WEAP model. The developed scenario is based on the actual situation of the surface irrigation network of the Local Administration of Land Reclamation (LALR) of Pinios for the year of 2007. The DIS is calibrated with observed data of this year and the district parameterization is conducted based on the actual operation of the network. The operation of the surface irrigation network of Pinios LALR is simulated using Technologismiki Works, while the operation of closed pipe irrigation network of Lake Karla LALR is simulated using Watercad. Four

The future of AIDS in Africa: lessons from two scenario projects ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Scenario planning or futures studies have their origin in military planning, but have also been used with great success in the private sector, most notably in the energy industry. UNAIDS and the South African financial services group Metropolitan each recently published a set of scenarios regarding the future impact of ...

Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

2005-02-01

This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

Assessment of the Impact of Metropolitan-Scale Urban Planning Scenarios on the Moist Thermal Environment under Global Warming: A Study of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Using Regional Climate Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asuka Suzuki-Parker

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Using a high-resolution regional climate model coupled with urban canopy model, the present study provides the first attempt in quantifying the impact of metropolitan-scale urban planning scenarios on moist thermal environment under global warming. Tokyo metropolitan area is selected as a test case. Three urban planning scenarios are considered: status quo, dispersed city, and compact city. Their impact on the moist thermal environment is assessed using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT. Future projections for the 2070s show a 2–4°C increase in daytime mean WBGT relative to the current climate. The urban scenario impacts are shown to be small, with a −0.4 to +0.4°C range. Relative changes in temperature and humidity as the result of a given urban scenario are shown to be critical in determining the sign of the WBGT changes; however, such changes are not necessarily determined by local changes in urban land surface parameters. These findings indicate that urban land surface changes may improve or worsen the local moist thermal environment and that metropolitan-scale urban planning is inefficient in mitigating heat-related health risks for mature cities like Tokyo.

Feasibility of integrating a multi-camera optical tracking system in intra-operative electron radiation therapy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García-Vázquez, V; Marinetto, E; Santos-Miranda, J A; Calvo, F A; Desco, M; Pascau, J

2013-01-01

Intra-operative electron radiation therapy (IOERT) combines surgery and ionizing radiation applied directly to an exposed unresected tumour mass or to a post-resection tumour bed. The radiation is collimated and conducted by a specific applicator docked to the linear accelerator. The dose distribution in tissues to be irradiated and in organs at risk can be planned through a pre-operative computed tomography (CT) study. However, surgical retraction of structures and resection of a tumour affecting normal tissues significantly modify the patient's geometry. Therefore, the treatment parameters (applicator dimension, pose (position and orientation), bevel angle, and beam energy) may require the original IOERT treatment plan to be modified depending on the actual surgical scenario. We propose the use of a multi-camera optical tracking system to reliably record the actual pose of the IOERT applicator in relation to the patient's anatomy in an environment prone to occlusion problems. This information can be integrated in the radio-surgical treatment planning system in order to generate a real-time accurate description of the IOERT scenario. We assessed the accuracy of the applicator pose by performing a phantom-based study that resembled three real clinical IOERT scenarios. The error obtained (2 mm) was below the acceptance threshold for external radiotherapy practice, thus encouraging future implementation of this approach in real clinical IOERT scenarios. (paper)

Environmental Restoration Information Resource Management Program Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

The Environmental Restoration Information Resources Management (ER IRM) Program Plan defines program requirements, organizational structures and responsibilities, and work breakdown structure and to establish an approved baseline against which overall progress of the program as well as the effectiveness of its management will be measured. This plan will guide ER IRM Program execution and define the program's essential elements. This plan will be routinely updated to incorporate key decisions and programmatic changes and will serve as the project baseline document. Environmental Restoration Waste Management Program intersite procedures and work instructions will be developed to facilitate the implementation of this plan

Environmental Restoration Information Resource Management Program Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-01

The Environmental Restoration Information Resources Management (ER IRM) Program Plan defines program requirements, organizational structures and responsibilities, and work breakdown structure and to establish an approved baseline against which overall progress of the program as well as the effectiveness of its management will be measured. This plan will guide ER IRM Program execution and define the program`s essential elements. This plan will be routinely updated to incorporate key decisions and programmatic changes and will serve as the project baseline document. Environmental Restoration Waste Management Program intersite procedures and work instructions will be developed to facilitate the implementation of this plan.

Modelling command and control for emergency response scenarios: A marine oil spills perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weisman, R.

1993-01-01

Commanders in emergency response scenarios have to rapidly formulate viable plans of action in the face of uncertainty, and on the basis of incomplete information and a constantly changing situation. Automated intelligent decision support systems may be a means of helping the commander to elaborate a plan, producing the operations order, and monitoring the plan's execution. The latter aspect would permit the system to advise a commander when key assumptions upon which the plan is based are no longer valid. Any such system will invariably be complex. The first step is the development of a conceptual model which will provide a sound structure to contain all of the requisite knowledge and information. The subject model is relatively simple and includes a metric for evaluating plans, a practical means of handling uncertainty, and a constraint language to capture expert knowledge precisely. Aspects of the model are illustrated using practical examples from the domain of maritime oil spill response. Results from several computer-based implementations of parts of the model are also discussed. 13 refs., 17 figs

Information resources management long-range plan, FY1994--1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-04-01

This document describes IRM activities and the information technology resources and capabilities of the Department, the future requirements, and the strategies and plans to satisfy the identified requirements. The long-range planning process provides the systematic means to meet this objective and assists the Department in assuring that information technology (IT) support is provided in an efficient, effective, and timely manner so that its programmatic missions can be accomplished. Another important objective of the Plan is to promote better understanding, both within and external to the Department, of its IT environment, requirements, issues, and recommended solutions. This DOE IRM Plan takes into consideration the IRM requirements of approximately 50 different sites. The annual long-range planning cycle for supporting this Plan was initiated by a Call in August 1991 for site plans to be submitted in February 1992 by those Departmental components and contractors with major IRM requirements.

Information resources management long-range plan, FY1994--1998

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-04-01

This document describes IRM activities and the information technology resources and capabilities of the Department, the future requirements, and the strategies and plans to satisfy the identified requirements. The long-range planning process provides the systematic means to meet this objective and assists the Department in assuring that information technology (IT) support is provided in an efficient, effective, and timely manner so that its programmatic missions can be accomplished. Another important objective of the Plan is to promote better understanding, both within and external to the Department, of its IT environment, requirements, issues, and recommended solutions. This DOE IRM Plan takes into consideration the IRM requirements of approximately 50 different sites. The annual long-range planning cycle for supporting this Plan was initiated by a Call in August 1991 for site plans to be submitted in February 1992 by those Departmental components and contractors with major IRM requirements

STRATEGIC PLANNING IN INFORMATION RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cezar VASILESCU

2013-10-01

Full Text Available The field of strategic management has offered a variety of frameworks and concepts for the past years, many with the declared aim of “taking business and its management seriously”. Strategic planning can help an organization to build its sustained competitive advantage in the face of an uncertain marketplace, but it requires new ways of thinking in order to create feasible alternatives. This article examines how the Chief Information Officer (CIO can use strategy and planning as an enabler to meet the mission of an organization. The analysis focuses on some common problems that occur in strategic planning. Managers need to identify these potential issues, so that they can recognize and deal with them if they arise in their own strategic planning. A systems approach is taken which presents planning as an open inclusive process that seeks to produce flexible systems capable of growth and adaptation to meet changing needs and missions.

Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) Plan

Data.gov (United States)

Office of Personnel Management — Executive Order (E.O.) 13,392 mandates that each federal agency shall have a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) working plan with established goals and time frames to...

Establishment of a maintenance plan based on quantitative analysis in the context of RCM in a JIT production scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alebrant Mendes, Angélica; Duarte Ribeiro, José Luis

2014-01-01

This paper presents a quantitative method for supporting the preparation or review of an equipment maintenance plan in a Just-in-time production scenario. The proposed method includes the following steps: (i) identifying the parts that influence reliability; (ii) surveying the failure rates and times to repair the parts; (iii) classification of parts according to the effect of their failures; (iv) surveying the line occupation parameters; (v) identifying the probability distributions for time to failure, time to repair, and line occupation; (vi) simulating the production and maintenance using the Monte Carlo approach; (vii) conducting a sensitivity analysis concerning variations in demand, MTTF, and MTTR; and (viii) establishing optimized intervals for preventive maintenance. The method is illustrated through an application in a labeling and filling gallons line at a paints and dyes production company. This method allowed the identification of critical parts as it relates to the productive scenario in question. The results can support companies in their decision making regarding the need and/or type of maintenance investment that would best fit an expected demand scenario

Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

2009-05-01

Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

2005-09-30

Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

Electricity demand and supply scenarios for Maharashtra (India) for 2030: An application of long range energy alternatives planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kale, Rajesh V.; Pohekar, Sanjay D.

2014-01-01

Forecasting of electricity demand has assumed a lot of importance to provide sustainable solutions to the electricity problems. LEAP has been used to forecast electricity demand for the target year 2030, for the state of Maharashtra (India). Holt’s exponential smoothing method has been used to arrive at suitable growth rates. Probable projections have been generated using uniform gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and different values of elasticity of demands. Three scenarios have been generated which include Business as Usual (BAU), Energy Conservation (EC) and Renewable Energy (REN). Subsequent analysis on the basis of energy, environmental influence and cost has been done. In the target year 2030, the projected electricity demand for BAU and REN has increased by 107.3 per cent over the base year 2012 and EC electricity demand has grown by 54.3 per cent. The estimated values of green house gas (GHG) for BAU and EC, in the year 2030, are 245.2 per cent and 152.4 per cent more than the base year and for REN it is 46.2 per cent less. Sensitivity analysis has been performed to study the effect on the total cost of scenarios. Policy implications in view of the results obtained are also discussed. - Highlights: • Forecasted electricity scenarios by Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP). • Critically analyzed the demand and supply prior to 2012 for a period of six years. • Used Holt’s exponential smoothing method ARIMA (0,1,1) for finding growth rates. • Devised suitable LEAP model for the generated scenarios. • Discussed policy implications for the generated scenarios

42 CFR 423.128 - Dissemination of Part D plan information.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Dissemination of Part D plan information. 423.128... Protections § 423.128 Dissemination of Part D plan information. (a) Detailed description. A Part D sponsor must disclose the information specified in paragraph (b) of this section in the manner specified by CMS...

Comprehensive scenario management of sustainable spatial planning and urban water services.

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Silja; Hoek, Jannis; Kaufmann Alves, Inka; Herz, Sabine

2016-01-01

Adaptations of existing central water supply and wastewater disposal systems to demographic, climatic and socioeconomic changes require a profound knowledge about changing influencing factors. The paper presents a scenario management approach for the identification of future developments of drivers influencing water infrastructures. This method is designed within a research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimisation and decision support system for long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy in rural areas. Drivers of water infrastructures comprise engineering and spatial factors and these are predicted by different methods and techniques. The calculated developments of the drivers are illustrated for a model municipality. The developed scenario-manager enables the generation of comprehensive scenarios by combining different drivers. The scenarios are integrated into the optimisation model as input parameters. Furthermore, the result of the optimisation process - an optimal transformation strategy for water infrastructures - can have impacts on the existing fee system. General adaptation possibilities of the present fee system are presented.

Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

1984-05-01

This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well

Study of information-orientation carry-out plan in energy sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, T W [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1998-04-01

Carrying out an information-orientation plan in the energy sector is indispensable if Korea is to survive in this unlimited competition age and global management system. It is also for maximizing the management efficiency of national energy resources as well as increasing the development of related industries and national welfare. The management of the energy resources sector of Korea, which is becoming diversified escaping from the past simple quantitative management of supplier-orientation, requires versatile and ample high-class information management system and high-level decision support system. In order to satisfy these requests, this study investigated and analyzed overall policies of the energy sector for carrying out information-orientation, neighborhood environment, organizational chart, information transfer method, the current condition of information-orientation, problems and improvements, demand of information-orientation of the future, and also reviewed the information-orientation status of advanced countries. Based on these, an information-orientation carryout plan in the energy sector is broken into three stages of `establishment of information transfer system`, `development of database`, and `establishment of decision support system` and presented per detailed work. It advised manpower, equipment and budget implementation plan, and a development schedule plan required for carrying out information-orientation as well as overall environmental build-up, and policy recommendation for the successful implementation of information-orientation. 24 refs., 27 figs., 15 tabs.

Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2011-01-25

Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

Information System for Land-Use Planning and Management

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YU Xiao; MIAO Fang

2008-01-01

In order to maintain the overall social interest in land use and improve the level of land administration, an information system for land-use planning and management (ISLUPM) was established, which is composed of presentation layer, business logic layer and data layer in the general structure. The application support platform of the ISLUPM, built based on COM, COM+ and .NET standard components, includes data engine, data management, assemblies, components management, operation management, and interface. Then, an elaboration was made on major functions of the ISLUPM, such as planning revision scheme, planning operation flow, digital processing, thematic analysis and inquiry, and preparation of the chart of reserved land resources. The developed system has been successfully applied to the land-use planning and management work of Longquanyi District, Chengdu, China. It may provide a reference for development of geographic information system (GIS) for land and resources.

Energy management information systems - planning manual and tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2010-07-01

An Energy Management Information System (EMIS) provides relevant information that makes energy, performance visible to various levels of an organization, enabling individuals and departments to plan, make decisions and take effective action to manage energy. This manual has two objectives: 1. To enable companies to conduct EMIS audits and prepare EMIS implementation plans; 2. To provide companies with the tools to prepare a financial business case for EMIS implementation. This manual consists of four parts: 1. EMIS Audit is theoretical and provides the methodology to be used by outside or in-house engineers and consultants to do a thorough EMIS Audit. 2. Implementation Plan is to help industry do the work themselves. 3. Appendices is to help the user develop an EMIS Audit, gather data and score their company, prepare a conceptual and detailed design, as well as a business and financial plan for implementation.

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

NPP accident scenario. Which emergency measures are planned in Switzerland?; Szenario KKW-Unfall. Welche Notfallschutzmassnahmen sind in der Schweiz geplant?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flury, Christoph [Bundesamt fuer Bevoelkerungsschutz (BABS), Bern (Switzerland). Eidgenoessisches Departement fuer Verteidigung Bevoelkerungsschutz und Sport (VBS)

2016-07-01

As a consequence of the reactor accident in Fukushima the Swiss government has ordered an extensive analysis of emergency planning in case of a NPP accident Switzerland. A special working group has analyzed the possible improvements of Swiss emergency planning based on the experiences in Japan. Under the special direction of the Bundesamt fuer Bevoelkerungsschutz (BABS) the agreed improvements were integrated into the emergency concept. The reference scenarios have been re-assessed and the zone concept adapted. The emergency measures include shelter-type rooms (basement or window-less rooms), the preventive distribution of iodine pills, measures concerning agriculture, aquatic systems, preventive evacuation, traffic regulations, and delayed evacuation.

Mobile, Collaborative Situated Knowledge Creation for Urban Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelson Baloian

2012-05-01

Full Text Available Geo-collaboration is an emerging research area in computer sciences studying the way spatial, geographically referenced information and communication technologies can support collaborative activities. Scenarios in which information associated to its physical location are of paramount importance are often referred as Situated Knowledge Creation scenarios. To date there are few computer systems supporting knowledge creation that explicitly incorporate physical context as part of the knowledge being managed in mobile face-to-face scenarios. This work presents a collaborative software application supporting visually-geo-referenced knowledge creation in mobile working scenarios while the users are interacting face-to-face. The system allows to manage data information associated to specific physical locations for knowledge creation processes in the field, such as urban planning, identifying specific physical locations, territorial management, etc.; using Tablet-PCs and GPS in order to geo-reference data and information. It presents a model for developing mobile applications supporting situated knowledge creation in the field, introducing the requirements for such an application and the functionalities it should have in order to fulfill them. The paper also presents the results of utility and usability evaluations.

Improving Consumer Information for Higher Education Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Herndon, M. Craig

2012-01-01

It is a historically held principle of microeconomics that in the presence of better information, consumers make better decisions. This chapter focuses on information to guide consumers in making decisions about higher education. It examines the development and implementation of a one-stop career and college planning tool that leverages existing…

Information of the Home Office for the planning of evacuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

This information contains the legal basis, scope and jurisdiction for evacuations in cases of accident. The general evacuation plan must schedule the following: private and public transport, information equipment, supply and care services, evacuation routes and traffic control checkpoints, etc. Particular evacuation plans must be established e.g. for nuclear plants and barrages. The planning is based on a survey of measures represented by a flowchart or a checklist. (HSCH) [de

Consequences of oil spills: a review and framework for informing planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie E. Chang

2014-06-01

Full Text Available As oil transportation worldwide continues to increase, many communities are at risk of oil spill disasters and must anticipate and prepare for them. Factors that influence oil spill consequences are myriad and range from the biophysical to the social. We provide a summary literature review and overview framework to help communities systematically consider the factors and linkages that would influence consequences of a potential oil spill. The focus is on spills from oil tanker accidents. Drawing primarily on empirical studies of previous oil spill disasters, we focused on several main domains of interest: the oil spill itself, disaster management, the physical marine environment, marine biology, human health, economy, and policy. Key variables that influence the severity of consequences are identified, and significant interactions between variables are delineated. The framework can be used to clarify the complexity of oil spill impacts, identify lessons that may be transferable from other oil spill disasters, develop scenarios for planning, and inform risk analysis and policy debates in localities that are seeking to understand and reduce their vulnerability to potential spill disasters. As a case study, the framework is used to consider potential oil spills and consequences in Vancouver, Canada. Major increases in oil tanker traffic are anticipated in this region, creating urgent new demands for risk information, disaster management planning, and policy responses. The case study identifies particular conditions that distinguish the Vancouver context from other historic events; in particular, proximity to a densely populated urban area, the type of oil being transported, financial compensation schemes, and local economic structure. Drawing lessons from other oil spill disasters is important but should be undertaken with recognition of these key differences. Some types of impacts that have been relatively inconsequential in previous events may be

STRATEGIC PLANNING AS A SUPPORTING TOOL TO DETERMINE MILITARY CAPABILITIES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

DAVID VILLACIS PAZOS

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Planning by scenarios, also called prospective, is of great value in high turbulent and volatile environments, as is today, because it permits to visualize the future from a spectrum of possibilities. That visualization is strategic information that provides a competitive edge and facilitates the identification of possible threats in each scenario and in front of those threats determines the required capacities needed. Therefore, prospective planning is an indispensable tool for decision making and determining military capacities. The scenario spectrum could consider an infinite number; however, for a strategic analysis it is basic to visualize at least three options: an optimist, a pessimist, and a tendency. To determine the military capacities, it is a required minimum to consider the traditional and non-traditional threats, as well as “foreseeable” and “feasible” capacities. The present article provides a global vision of prospective planning and its relationship with determining military capacities.

Waterbird habitat in California's Central Valley basins under climate, urbanization, and water management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph

2018-01-01

California's Central Valley provides critical, but threatened habitat and food resources for migrating and wintering waterfowl, shorebirds, and other waterbirds. The Central Valley is comprised of nine basins that were defined by the Central Valley Joint Venture (CVJV) to assist in conservation planning. Basins vary in composition and extent of habitats, which primarily include croplands and wetlands that rely on water supplies shared with other competing human and environmental uses. Changes in climate, urban development, and water supply management are uncertain and could reduce future availability of water supplies supporting waterbird habitats and limit effectiveness of wetland restoration planned by the CVJV to support wintering waterbirds. We modeled 17 plausible scenarios including combinations of three climate projections, three urbanization rates, and five water supply management options to promote agricultural and urban water uses, with and without wetland restoration. Our research examines the reduction in quantity and quality of habitats during the fall migration-wintering period by basin under each scenario, and the efficacy of planned wetland restoration to compensate reductions in flooded areas of wetland habitats. Scenario combinations of projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management options reduced availability of flooded cropland and wetland habitats during fall-winter and degraded the quality of seasonal wetlands (i.e., summer-irrigation for improved forage production), though the extent and frequency of impacts varied by basin. Planned wetland restoration may substantially compensate for scenario-related effects on wetland habitats in each basin. However, results indicate that Colusa, Butte, Sutter, San Joaquin, and Tulare Basins may require additional conservation to support summer-irrigation of seasonal wetlands and winter-flooding of cropland habitats. Still further conservation may be required to provide sufficient areas of

Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

2016-01-01

Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

USGS Information Technology Strategic Plan: Fiscal Years 2007-2011

Science.gov (United States)

,

2006-01-01

Introduction: The acquisition, management, communication, and long-term stewardship of natural science data, information, and knowledge are fundamental mission responsibilities of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). USGS scientists collect, maintain, and exchange raw scientific data and interpret and analyze it to produce a wide variety of science-based products. Managers throughout the Bureau access, summarize, and analyze administrative or business-related information to budget, plan, evaluate, and report on programs and projects. Information professionals manage the extensive and growing stores of irreplaceable scientific information and knowledge in numerous databases, archives, libraries, and other digital and nondigital holdings. Information is the primary currency of the USGS, and it flows to scientists, managers, partners, and a wide base of customers, including local, State, and Federal agencies, private sector organizations, and individual citizens. Supporting these information flows is an infrastructure of computer systems, telecommunications equipment, software applications, digital and nondigital data stores and archives, technical expertise, and information policies and procedures. This infrastructure has evolved over many years and consists of tools and technologies acquired or built to address the specific requirements of particular projects or programs. Developed independently, the elements of this infrastructure were typically not designed to facilitate the exchange of data and information across programs or disciplines, to allow for sharing of information resources or expertise, or to be combined into a Bureauwide and broader information infrastructure. The challenge to the Bureau is to wisely and effectively use its information resources to create a more Integrated Information Environment that can reduce costs, enhance the discovery and delivery of scientific products, and improve support for science. This Information Technology Strategic Plan

Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anniken Enger

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Future scenarios for the development of nuclear power. How will nuclear power develop over the next twenty to forty years?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pickett, Susan E.

2009-01-01

Nuclear power technology has developed significantly over the past 60 years to the point that today it supplies the world with 15% of its electricity; and there are plans for continued development. However, the continued growth of nuclear power is not without challenges. The nuclear industry must remain competitive in the face of challenges ranging from environmental considerations and proliferation concerns to ensuring safe and often transparent operations. Understanding these and other issues, as well as their underlying causes, can help the industry leaders create more robust strategies and effectively implement nuclear fuel cycle decisions. Robust strategies are ones that can be effective even when circumstances change, due to events such as opposition, new scientific information, changes in resource availability, or introduction of competing technologies. Scenario planning is tool which can help planners and decision makers create a strategic conversation about the future and how to manage and plan in a time of accelerated change and complexity. In this paper, scenario planning is introduced and the development of nuclear power is examined against the back drop of four future scenarios, specifically looking at how variations in environmental quality, resource availability, security and proliferation, and safety may affect the development of nuclear power. The scenarios discussed provide a starting point to improve the understanding of issues and opportunities facing the global nuclear power industry and ultimately, to improve strategies for technology development. Such scenarios may be employed as a basis for collaboration and communication amongst the stakeholders involved in the development of nuclear technology. (author)

48 CFR 652.239-70 - Information Technology Security Plan and Accreditation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Information Technology... Clauses 652.239-70 Information Technology Security Plan and Accreditation. As prescribed in 639.107-70(a), insert the following provision: Information Technology Security Plan and Accreditation (SEP 2007) All...

48 CFR 1252.239-71 - Information technology security plan and accreditation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Information technology... Provisions and Clauses 1252.239-71 Information technology security plan and accreditation. As prescribed in (TAR) 48 CFR 1239.70, insert the following provision: Information Technology Security Plan and...

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

Source of information on family planning among married men in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Population in Nigeria is turning into an issue that needs public alertness. Informing men on family planning services and contraceptives is extremely necessary. For this will promote more favorable attitudes and increase their involvement. This study aimed at investigating the source of family planning information for married ...

When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

2010-01-01

In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

Solid waste information and tracking system server conversion project management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MAY, D.L.

1999-01-01

The Project Management Plan governing the conversion of Solid Waste Information and Tracking System (SWITS) to a client-server architecture. The Solid Waste Information and Tracking System Project Management Plan (PMP) describes the background, planning and management of the SWITS conversion. Requirements and specification documentation needed for the SWITS conversion will be released as supporting documents

Corporate plan 1978

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-04-01

The CEGB Corporate Plan is intended as a background document for those in the industry and as a basis for discussions with the Department of Energy on investment programmes and energy policy generally. It contains the most recent information on actions taken or agreed, on remaining problems and an options for further action on these problems. Following an introduction summarising the CEGB's objectives and recent progress the issues are discussed under the following main headings: energy policy background; medium term plans; the year ahead; options, actions and conclusions. Appendices include: three energy scenarios, one a reference case by the Department of Energy, and two CEGB scenarios which identify a credible range of future electricity demands; 1978 capital investment proposals; and medium term forecasts for demand and plant position at winter peak, and for bulk costs and unit sales. The board intends to continue to develop a suitable long term nuclear strategy which includes thermal reactors and the development of the fast reactor as a viable option. (U.K.)

Strategic Planning for Management Information Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Ein-Dor, Phillip; Segev, Eli

1978-01-01

Two factors predominate in determining the appropriateness of strategic plans for management information systems (MIS)--explicitness (the degree to which the process is conscious, formal, and documented) and situational fit (the degree to which the MIS is compatible with the specific organization and its members). (Author/IRT)

Strategic plan for Hanford Site Environmental Restoration Information Management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cowley, P.J.; Beck, J.E.; Gephart, R.E.

1994-06-01

This strategic plan addresses information management for the Environmental Restoration (ER) Program at the Hanford Site. This Program leads the cleanup of the Hanford Site's soil, groundwater, buried waste, and the decontamination and decommissioning of facilities. The vision that drives this strategic plan is to ensure that quality information is available to the people who need it, when they need it, at a convenient location, in a usable form, and at an acceptable cost. Although investments are being made in managing the vast amounts of information, which include data, records and documents associated with the Hanford Site's production history and new cleanup mission, it is widely recognized that efforts to date have not accomplished the vision. Effective information management involves more than the compilation of massive amounts of electronic and non-electronic information. It also involves integrating information management into business processes that support user's needs and decisionmaking. Only then can information management complement and enable environmental restoration priorities and practices, help identify environmental restoration requirements, and enable communication within the Environmental Restoration Program and between the Program and its stakeholders. Successfully accomplishing the Hanford Site mission requires an integrated approach to information management that crosses organizational boundaries, streamlines existing systems, and builds new systems that support the needs of the future. This plan outlines that approach

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

IMPORTANCE OF STRATEGIC INFORMATIONS FOR PLANNING IN BASKETBALL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavle Rubin

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Planning in basketball (like in other sports is one aspect of the job of a sport coach. Every coach while writting (creating, composing the plan and programme of a trainning (trainning proces should have the informations important for achievingsuccess. That kontigent of informations should be hierarchy arranged. Driving the pro- gramme the coach should always barring in mind what is the most important aim which in particular moment he wants to realise. Problem of this work is in fact that difference between coaches is that thay dont give certain importance to the particular informati- ons. Beside the necessity to know wich informations are the most important for solving a problem, it is important to prove their corelations. The aim of the research is to present the importance of identification and using of strategic infomations in planning (and pro- gramming in basketball. According to all infomations colected by coach he creates his strategic koncept. Using the strategic koncept he can create tactical koncept, particular koncept for the particular opponent (tactical plan and to (more or less use intime cer- tain tactical variance on the game (operative tactics. The coach (as the most important in the trainning process should be familiar with the science aspects of sport activities. That way he can overtake expected integral functions and be a lieder who gain the aim.

Integrated Scenarios of Regional Development in Two Semi-Arid States of North-Eastern Brazil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.

2002-01-01

Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative¿quantitative scenarios that show potential

Hanford Environmental Information System Configuration Management Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-06-01

The Hanford Environmental Information System (HEIS) Configuration Management Plan establishes the software and data configuration control requirements for the HEIS and project-related databases maintained within the Environmental Restoration Contractor's data management department

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

2016-01-01

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

Emergency exercise scenario tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sjoeblom, K.

1998-03-01

Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

The response to a worst-case scenario - the national emergency plan for nuclear accidents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cunningham D, John [Radiological Protection Inst. of Ireland (Ireland)

1996-10-01

The Chernobyl accident in 1986 highlighted many deficiencies in the preparedness of countries to deal with a major accident. It demonstrated how vulnerable countries are to transboundary contamination. Ireland had no emergency plan at the time of the accident and only minimal facilities with which to assess the consequences of the accident. Nonetheless, the then Nuclear Energy Board with the assistance of Government Departments and the Civil Defence organisation reacted quickly to assess the situation despite the complete lack of information about the accident from the then USSR. Even countries with advanced nuclear technologies faced similar difficulties. It was quickly recognised by Government that the national laboratory facilities were totally inadequate. The Nuclear Energy Board was provided with additional resources to assist it to cope in the short term with the very large demand for monitoring. In the longer term a new national radiation laboratory was provided and the Board was formally replaced by the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland. It was given statutory responsibility to monitor radiation levels, to advise measures to be taken for the protection of the public and to provide information for the public. An emergency plan based on the Chernobyl experience was drafted in 1987, amended and published in 1992. Certain features of this plan were implemented from 1987 onwards, notably the classification of responsibilities and the installation of a national continuous radiation monitoring system. The paper outlines the responsibilities of those who could be involved in a response to a nuclear incident, the procedures used to evaluate its consequences and the provision of information for the public. The plan provides an integrated management system which has sufficient flexibility to enable a rapid response to be made to a major or minor crisis, either foreseen or unforeseen and whatever its cause.

Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

2013-01-01

For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

TECHNIQUE OF OPTIMAL AUDIT PLANNING FOR INFORMATION SECURITY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. N. Shago

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Complication of information security management systems leads to the necessity of improving the scientific and methodological apparatus for these systems auditing. Planning is an important and determining part of information security management systems auditing. Efficiency of audit will be defined by the relation of the reached quality indicators to the spent resources. Thus, there is an important and urgent task of developing methods and techniques for optimization of the audit planning, making it possible to increase its effectiveness. The proposed technique gives the possibility to implement optimal distribution for planning time and material resources on audit stages on the basis of dynamics model for the ISMS quality. Special feature of the proposed approach is the usage of a priori data as well as a posteriori data for the initial audit planning, and also the plan adjustment after each audit event. This gives the possibility to optimize the usage of audit resources in accordance with the selected criteria. Application examples of the technique are given while planning audit information security management system of the organization. The result of computational experiment based on the proposed technique showed that the time (cost audit costs can be reduced by 10-15% and, consequently, quality assessments obtained through audit resources allocation can be improved with respect to well-known methods of audit planning.

Strategic Planning For The Fire Service

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

jamming, think in time, think in resources, think in life cycles, and think in experiments and bets .”197 Thinking in paradoxes is the strategic...decreasing costs. Futures methodology scenario planning would allow Fire Service leaders to think through plausible “what if” scenarios before they occur...while decreasing costs. Futures methodology scenario planning would allow Fire Service leaders to think through plausible “what if” scenarios before

Spent nuclear fuel project high-level information management plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Main, G.C.

1996-09-13

This document presents the results of the Spent Nuclear Fuel Project (SNFP) Information Management Planning Project (IMPP), a short-term project that identified information management (IM) issues and opportunities within the SNFP and outlined a high-level plan to address them. This high-level plan for the SNMFP IM focuses on specific examples from within the SNFP. The plan`s recommendations can be characterized in several ways. Some recommendations address specific challenges that the SNFP faces. Others form the basis for making smooth transitions in several important IM areas. Still others identify areas where further study and planning are indicated. The team`s knowledge of developments in the IM industry and at the Hanford Site were crucial in deciding where to recommend that the SNFP act and where they should wait for Site plans to be made. Because of the fast pace of the SNFP and demands on SNFP staff, input and interaction were primarily between the IMPP team and members of the SNFP Information Management Steering Committee (IMSC). Key input to the IMPP came from a workshop where IMSC members and their delegates developed a set of draft IM principles. These principles, described in Section 2, became the foundation for the recommendations found in the transition plan outlined in Section 5. Availability of SNFP staff was limited, so project documents were used as a basis for much of the work. The team, realizing that the status of the project and the environment are continually changing, tried to keep abreast of major developments since those documents were generated. To the extent possible, the information contained in this document is current as of the end of fiscal year (FY) 1995. Programs and organizations on the Hanford Site as a whole are trying to maximize their return on IM investments. They are coordinating IM activities and trying to leverage existing capabilities. However, the SNFP cannot just rely on Sitewide activities to meet its IM requirements

Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Nassar, Nedal T.; Wilburn, David R.; Goonan, Thomas G.

2016-01-01

The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, especially under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for additional solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a number of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this analysis, the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technology market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary production. This is especially the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technology market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016–2040, the various CPP scenarios are estimated to require 15–43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary production via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.

Scenario-neutral Food Security Risk Assessment: A livestock Heat Stress Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Broman, D.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hopson, T. M.

2015-12-01

Food security risk assessments can provide decision-makers with actionable information to identify critical system limitations, and alternatives to mitigate the impacts of future conditions. The majority of current risk assessments have been scenario-led and results are limited by the scenarios - selected future states of the world's climate system and socioeconomic factors. A generic scenario-neutral framework for food security risk assessments is presented here that uses plausible states of the world without initially assigning likelihoods. Measures of system vulnerabilities are identified and system risk is assessed for these states. This framework has benefited greatly by research in the water and natural resource fields to adapt their planning to provide better risk assessments. To illustrate the utility of this framework we develop a case study using livestock heat stress risk within the pastoral system of West Africa. Heat stress can have a major impact not only on livestock owners, but on the greater food production system, decreasing livestock growth, milk production, and reproduction, and in severe cases, death. A heat stress index calculated from daily weather is used as a vulnerability measure and is computed from historic daily weather data at several locations in the study region. To generate plausible states, a stochastic weather generator is developed to generate synthetic weather sequences at each location, consistent with the seasonal climate. A spatial model of monthly and seasonal heat stress provide projections of current and future livestock heat stress measures across the study region, and can incorporate in seasonal climate and other external covariates. These models, when linked with empirical thresholds of heat stress risk for specific breeds offer decision-makers with actionable information for use in near-term warning systems as well as for future planning. Future assessment can indicate under which states livestock are at greatest risk

NIF Projects Controls and Information Systems Software Quality Assurance Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fishler, B

2011-03-18

Quality achievement for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the National Ignition Campaign (NIC) is the responsibility of the NIF Projects line organization as described in the NIF and Photon Science Directorate Quality Assurance Plan (NIF QA Plan). This Software Quality Assurance Plan (SQAP) is subordinate to the NIF QA Plan and establishes quality assurance (QA) activities for the software subsystems within Controls and Information Systems (CIS). This SQAP implements an activity level software quality assurance plan for NIF Projects as required by the LLNL Institutional Software Quality Assurance Program (ISQAP). Planned QA activities help achieve, assess, and maintain appropriate quality of software developed and/or acquired for control systems, shot data systems, laser performance modeling systems, business applications, industrial control and safety systems, and information technology systems. The objective of this SQAP is to ensure that appropriate controls are developed and implemented for management planning, work execution, and quality assessment of the CIS organization's software activities. The CIS line organization places special QA emphasis on rigorous configuration control, change management, testing, and issue tracking to help achieve its quality goals.

NIF Projects Controls and Information Systems Software Quality Assurance Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fishler, B.

2011-01-01

Quality achievement for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) and the National Ignition Campaign (NIC) is the responsibility of the NIF Projects line organization as described in the NIF and Photon Science Directorate Quality Assurance Plan (NIF QA Plan). This Software Quality Assurance Plan (SQAP) is subordinate to the NIF QA Plan and establishes quality assurance (QA) activities for the software subsystems within Controls and Information Systems (CIS). This SQAP implements an activity level software quality assurance plan for NIF Projects as required by the LLNL Institutional Software Quality Assurance Program (ISQAP). Planned QA activities help achieve, assess, and maintain appropriate quality of software developed and/or acquired for control systems, shot data systems, laser performance modeling systems, business applications, industrial control and safety systems, and information technology systems. The objective of this SQAP is to ensure that appropriate controls are developed and implemented for management planning, work execution, and quality assessment of the CIS organization's software activities. The CIS line organization places special QA emphasis on rigorous configuration control, change management, testing, and issue tracking to help achieve its quality goals.

Consider the Four-Legged Stool as You Plan for Information Technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Baltzer, Jan A.

2000-01-01

Discusses the need for strategic planning in libraries for the use of information technology that will add value to the library and better serve the users. Explains a model for developing information technology strategic plans that includes vision statements, goals and strategies, and an implementation timeline. (LRW)

Incorporating informality into urban and regional planning education ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

To achieve sustainable development in any society the educational system must be responsive to the dynamics of that society. This article discusses issues on the level of training on informality in African planning schools with emphasis on the Lagos, Nigeria situation. The article reviews the concept of informality, the ...

Case study of information product for strategy research, planning research, and policy research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan Yujun; Zou Lin; Liu Qun; Wang Yongping

2010-01-01

Soft science research is significant and can directly support the decision-making and development. The strategy research, planning research, and policy research each play an important role in soft science research. As the National Strategy of Informatization being implemented and advanced, some progress are made and some special information tools are produced in the process of strengthening the development research with information technologies. At first, the article introduced some cases of information products application, such as the domestic and overseas information products for energy strategy research and planning research and policy research, the governmental management information system for planning and investment, examination and approval and permission system for the planning of the land for construction, China agriculture decision support system and so on, and also gave a brief analysis on the theories and methods, main functions and application status. And then, with a analysis on the features of the works of development planning of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) development, this article gave some suggestions on how to strengthen the development of information system for the development planning of the CNNC. (authors)

Information Technology Investment Strategy Planning: Balance Scorecard Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henny Hendarti

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Purpose of this research are to prepare the IT investment strategy using Balanced Scorecard approach in the company where the appropriate planning of this IT investment strategy can maximize the competitive benefit in the company, and it also to recommended a strategy of IT investment that can be implemented and measure the rate of return from the IT investment in the company. Research Method used book studies, field studies, and analysis system. Book studies from the books and journal. Field studies done by observation, interview, and questioner, and analysis system done by analyzed the ongoing system in the company. The result from this analysis is a recommendation in investment IT such as sales module, payment module, and report module. Then for the conclusion, this information technology investment planning can be develop to another investment implementation such authorized website of the company and using PDA (Personal Digital AssistantIndex Terms - Planning, Information Technology, Investment, Balance Scorecard

Mr. Ngao's proposal: introducing client fees. Case scenarios for training and group discussion.

Science.gov (United States)

1992-01-01

In this supplement to the issue of "The Family Planning Manager" devoted to fees, a hypothetical case scenario is presented to illustrate the introduction of client fees to a family planning program. Managers are instructed to prepare a plan that includes the necessary information for deciding what to charge for, who to charge, and how much to charge; identifies the administrative changes involved in charging fees; and outlines steps that clinic managers should take before introducing client fees. Decisions should be based on factors such as the objectives of fee charging, client willingness and ability to pay, client perception of the quality of current services, services for which clients would be most willing to pay, estimated cost of providing services, and the cost of new administrative procedures inherent in a fee-for-service approach. Administrative procedures for collecting, handling, and accounting for cash; reporting income and expenses; and implementing a fair and flexible system of waivers and exemptions must be defined. Clients should be informed well in advance of fee introduction, and staff trained to manage potential client complaints.

Next generation terminology infrastructure to support interprofessional care planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Collins, Sarah; Klinkenberg-Ramirez, Stephanie; Tsivkin, Kira; Mar, Perry L; Iskhakova, Dina; Nandigam, Hari; Samal, Lipika; Rocha, Roberto A

2017-11-01

Develop a prototype of an interprofessional terminology and information model infrastructure that can enable care planning applications to facilitate patient-centered care, learn care plan linkages and associations, provide decision support, and enable automated, prospective analytics. The study steps included a 3 step approach: (1) Process model and clinical scenario development, and (2) Requirements analysis, and (3) Development and validation of information and terminology models. Components of the terminology model include: Health Concerns, Goals, Decisions, Interventions, Assessments, and Evaluations. A terminology infrastructure should: (A) Include discrete care plan concepts; (B) Include sets of profession-specific concerns, decisions, and interventions; (C) Communicate rationales, anticipatory guidance, and guidelines that inform decisions among the care team; (D) Define semantic linkages across clinical events and professions; (E) Define sets of shared patient goals and sub-goals, including patient stated goals; (F) Capture evaluation toward achievement of goals. These requirements were mapped to AHRQ Care Coordination Measures Framework. This study used a constrained set of clinician-validated clinical scenarios. Terminology models for goals and decisions are unavailable in SNOMED CT, limiting the ability to evaluate these aspects of the proposed infrastructure. Defining and linking subsets of care planning concepts appears to be feasible, but also essential to model interprofessional care planning for common co-occurring conditions and chronic diseases. We recommend the creation of goal dynamics and decision concepts in SNOMED CT to further enable the necessary models. Systems with flexible terminology management infrastructure may enable intelligent decision support to identify conflicting and aligned concerns, goals, decisions, and interventions in shared care plans, ultimately decreasing documentation effort and cognitive burden for clinicians and

Building information deduced

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tamke, Martin; Myrup Jensen, Morten; Beetz, Jakob

2014-01-01

In recent years, Building Information Models have become commonplace in building profession. The extensive use and increasing experience with BIM models offers new perspectives and potentials for design and planning. A recent stakeholder study conducted by the authors of this paper show that in p......In recent years, Building Information Models have become commonplace in building profession. The extensive use and increasing experience with BIM models offers new perspectives and potentials for design and planning. A recent stakeholder study conducted by the authors of this paper show...... that in practice models are no longer solely observed as culmination of knowledge in a 3d representation of future built structures, but as a source of information in itself. Experienced users of BIM want to Find Information within a model or across a set of these and Compare models in order to evaluate states...... of a model, differences in separate models or models from different point of time. Current BIM tools support both modes only in a rudimentary form. This paper discusses current modes of information query within and across BIM models, shows beneficial scenarios for building and planning practice through...

The Quota-Based Compensation Plan in Fashion Retailing Industry under Asymmetric Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mingzhu Yu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We study a compensation plan problem in the fashion retailing industry, which involves a risk-neutral fashion retailer and a risk-neutral salesperson, in a two-stage game framework with asymmetric information. In the first stage, the fashion retailer provides a menu of compensation plans to the salesperson who decides which plan to sign based on his superior market demand information. Confronted with the asymmetric demand information, the fashion retailer could observe market information from the salesperson's response by designing a menu of compensation plans rather than a single one to the salesperson. In the second stage, the fashion retailer then makes production decision and the salesperson determines his selling effort. We consider both adverse selection and moral hazard. We adopt the quota-based plan to derive the fashion retailer’s optimal compensation plan design and the salesperson's best response. We emphasize the impact of the quota level on the system outcomes. The results reveal that a higher quota level is disadvantageous to the fashion retailer but advantageous to the salespersons.

The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User's Guide for Research Libraries

Science.gov (United States)

Association of Research Libraries, 2010

2010-01-01

This user's guide was developed to advance local planning at ARL member libraries. It is written for library leaders writ large and for anyone leading or contributing to research library planning processes. Users do not need advanced facilitation skills to benefit from this guide, but facilitators charged with supporting scenario planning will…

Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

2016-04-01

This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

Large fire scenarios in relation to sabotage of nuclear installations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Contri, P.; Guerpinar, A.; ); Schneider, U.

2005-01-01

The analyses of sabotage scenarios carried out in recent years identified two major damaging mechanisms associated with such scenarios, namely: the mechanical interaction of solid bodies or pressure waves with the installations and the fire-related effects from burning substances. While the former effect may be addressed by available analytical tools developed for accidental scenarios, the latter deserves a new, specific engineering effort. In fact, all nuclear facilities are designed in relation to accidental fires; even so, they need to be assessed in relation to sabotage induced fire scenarios due to the special characteristics of such scenarios, not addressed by the current engineering practice for the design of nuclear installations. Conventional fire hazard analysis is based on the hypothesis of the presence of combustible materials in the buildings and limited number of contemporaneous sources of fire. In addition, conventional fire safety assessment relies upon the presence of mitigation measures and fire related operational procedures. In a sabotage event the validity of all these assumptions need to be checked and if the assumptions cannot be supported, then the analysis should be revised and other alternatives of protection should be developed. Also the implementation of emergency planning should be reviewed to take account of this concern. This paper collects state-of-the-art experience from some Countries, which represents the background information for the development of new IAEA documents in this field. The paper reviews how the current design practice for nuclear installations can cope with large fire scenarios caused by malevolent actions and provides recommendations to designers and operators on how to address these issues in a reasonable framework. (authors)

Social Media Geographic Information: Recent Findings and Opportunities for Smart Spatial Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierangelo Massa

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This paper deals with the opportunities of Social Media Geographic Information (SMGI as valuable support for analysis, design and decision-making in urban and regional planning. In the light of the recent advances in digital geographic information, such as Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI which are fostering innovation in urban and regional planning, the authors focus on the potentialities of Social Media as source of knowledge for the planning practices. The authors argue SMGI may play an important role to inform 'smart city' strategies extending authoritative and sensor data infrastructure with experiential and pluralist citizens knowledge. To support this thesis, an innovative methodology for the advance of Social Media Geographic Information (SMGI Analytics is proposed. To this end, the authors present an original user-friendly tool able to extract information from popular Social Media such as Twitter.com and Youtube.com and to apply Spatial-Temporal Textual (STTx analysis . Some examples are provided at the regional and at the local scale in order to demonstrate the potential of SMGI analytics in regional and urban planning. The results show how SMGI analytics can support design, analysis and decision making in planning, and add the value of pluralism to inform smart city initiatives. The paper ends with some brief conclusions on the opportunities of SMGI analytics for possibly affecting decision-making dynamics and urban and regional planning processes, through citizens’ dialogue and integration of experiential and professional knowledge.

RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

2016-01-01

studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

Ecoregion-Based Conservation Planning in the Mediterranean: Dealing with Large-Scale Heterogeneity

Science.gov (United States)

Giakoumi, Sylvaine; Sini, Maria; Gerovasileiou, Vasilis; Mazor, Tessa; Beher, Jutta; Possingham, Hugh P.; Abdulla, Ameer; Çinar, Melih Ertan; Dendrinos, Panagiotis; Gucu, Ali Cemal; Karamanlidis, Alexandros A.; Rodic, Petra; Panayotidis, Panayotis; Taskin, Ergun; Jaklin, Andrej; Voultsiadou, Eleni; Webster, Chloë; Zenetos, Argyro; Katsanevakis, Stelios

2013-01-01

Spatial priorities for the conservation of three key Mediterranean habitats, i.e. seagrass Posidonia oceanica meadows, coralligenous formations, and marine caves, were determined through a systematic planning approach. Available information on the distribution of these habitats across the entire Mediterranean Sea was compiled to produce basin-scale distribution maps. Conservation targets for each habitat type were set according to European Union guidelines. Surrogates were used to estimate the spatial variation of opportunity cost for commercial, non-commercial fishing, and aquaculture. Marxan conservation planning software was used to evaluate the comparative utility of two planning scenarios: (a) a whole-basin scenario, referring to selection of priority areas across the whole Mediterranean Sea, and (b) an ecoregional scenario, in which priority areas were selected within eight predefined ecoregions. Although both scenarios required approximately the same total area to be protected in order to achieve conservation targets, the opportunity cost differed between them. The whole-basin scenario yielded a lower opportunity cost, but the Alboran Sea ecoregion was not represented and priority areas were predominantly located in the Ionian, Aegean, and Adriatic Seas. In comparison, the ecoregional scenario resulted in a higher representation of ecoregions and a more even distribution of priority areas, albeit with a higher opportunity cost. We suggest that planning at the ecoregional level ensures better representativeness of the selected conservation features and adequate protection of species, functional, and genetic diversity across the basin. While there are several initiatives that identify priority areas in the Mediterranean Sea, our approach is novel as it combines three issues: (a) it is based on the distribution of habitats and not species, which was rarely the case in previous efforts, (b) it considers spatial variability of cost throughout this

Career Planning Modules for the Officer Career Information and Planning System.

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, Susan D.; And Others

This discussion of the modules in an experimental computer-aided system for officer career information and planning system (OCIPS) includes the reasons for its development, a description of the seven modules, and the findings of a preliminary test of four of the modules for feasibility and credibility. Initially developed in response to a need…

Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems for Future Urban Energy Retrofitting Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrizia Lombardi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, there is an increasing concern about sustainable urban energy development taking into account national priorities of each city. Many cities have started to define future strategies and plans to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Urban energy scenarios involve the consideration of a wide range of conflicting criteria, both socio-economic and environmental ones. Moreover, decision-makers (DMs require proper tools that can support their choices in a context of multiple stakeholders and a long-term perspective. In this context, Multicriteria Spatial Decision Support Systems (MC-SDSS are often used in order to define and analyze urban scenarios since they support the comparison of different solutions, based on a combination of multiple factors. The main problem, in relation to urban energy retrofitting scenarios, is the lack of appropriate knowledge and evaluation criteria. The latter are crucial for delivering and assessing urban energy scenarios through a MC-SDSS tool. The main goal of this paper is to analyze and test two different methods for the definition and ranking of the evaluation criteria. More specifically, the paper presents an on-going research study related to the development of a MC-SDSS tool able to identify and evaluate alternative energy urban scenarios in a long-term period perspective. This study refers to two Smart City and Communities research projects, namely: DIMMER (District Information Modeling and Management for Energy Reduction and EEB (Zero Energy Buildings in Smart Urban Districts.

Scenario visualisation for participatory landscape planning - a study from Denmark

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tress, B.; Tress, G.

2003-01-01

Increasingly, different functions must be integrated simultaneously in the Danish countryside, demanding a common effort of planners, decision-makers, researchers, and stakeholders. The study proposes a transdisciplinary method that combines scenario technique, photorealistic visualisation, and

Informal work and formal plans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalsted, Rikke Juul; Hølge-Hazelton, Bibi; Kousgaard, Marius Brostrøm

2012-01-01

trajectories. METHODS AND THEORY: An in-depth case study of patient trajectories at a Danish hospital and surrounding municipality using individual interviews with patients. Theory about trajectory and work by Strauss was included. RESULTS: Patients continuously took initiatives to organize their treatment...... and care. They initiated processes in the trajectories, and acquired information, which they used to form their trajectories. Patients presented problems to the healthcare professionals in order to get proper help when needed. DISCUSSION: Work done by patients was invisible and not perceived as work....... The patients' requests were not sufficiently supported in the professional organisation of work or formal planning. Patients' insertion and use of information in their trajectories challenged professional views and working processes. And the design of the formal pathway models limits the patients' active...

Informal work and formal plans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dalsted, Rikke Juul; Hølge-Hazelton, Bibi; Kousgaard, Marius Brostrøm

2012-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Formal pathways models outline that patients should receive information in order to experience a coherent journey but do not describe an active role for patients or their relatives. The aim of this is paper is to articulate and discuss the active role of patients during their cancer...... trajectories. METHODS AND THEORY: An in-depth case study of patient trajectories at a Danish hospital and surrounding municipality using individual interviews with patients. Theory about trajectory and work by Strauss was included. RESULTS: Patients continuously took initiatives to organize their treatment....... The patients' requests were not sufficiently supported in the professional organisation of work or formal planning. Patients' insertion and use of information in their trajectories challenged professional views and working processes. And the design of the formal pathway models limits the patients' active...

DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION SYSTEM STRATEGIES AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AT PRIVATE UNIVERSITIES IN PRINGSEWU BY USING METHODOLOGY ENTERPRISE ARCHITECTURE PLANNING (EAP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Khumaidi

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The development of information systems and information technology requires planning to complement the direction of the college strategy. Planning is constructed by defining data, application and technology architectures in the use of information to support business processes and then architectural design to identify needs and create architectural schemes and make plans for their implementation. Enterprise Architecture Planning (EAP is a method of data quality planning approach oriented to business needs and how the implementation of the architecture is done in such a way in an effort to support business turnover and achievement of Vision and Mission and the goal of strategic development of SI and IT at college private high. The result of this research is to get the blueprint resulting from Enterprise Architecture Planning (EAP methodology which will be used as a guide for making blueprint in the form of data architecture, application architecture and technology architecture in strategy development Information system and information technology as a whole on High private sector especially in Pringsewu

Do we need an emergency planning for contamination with alpha or beta emitting materials and how should this be?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gellermann, Rainer; Kueppers, Christian; Urbach, Michael; Schnadt, Horst; Lange, Florentin

2016-01-01

The emergency planning up to now was geared to the consequences of accidents in nuclear facilities. There were no planning guidelines like the recommendations for emergency planning in the vicinity of nuclear facilities for other radiological incidents. According to article 98 of the new European radiation protection standards the member states have to take care for the preparation of emergency plans fir the case of emergency exposure scenarios. The study discusses several scenarios that might induce alpha or beta contamination, existing approaches for guiding contamination values, intervention benchmarks, protection strategies including continuing public information, selected radionuclides that might be involved, exposure paths, guidance benchmarks for person decontamination, and recommendations for new emergency plans.

Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

2016-01-01

This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

INFORMATION SYSTEMS IN MARKETING PLANNING: IN SEARCH FOR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela Motta Romeiro Khauaja

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Information is an important input to perform the different activities of marketing administration. This paper presents a study that investigated the opinion of 116 MBA students of Universidade Anhembi-Morumbi, who used to work for Brazilian and multinational organizations from several sectors, in order to discuss the importance of formal, integrated and continuous marketing information systems (MIS to the process of marketing planning in these organizations. The results of the empirical study state the importance of the MIS to marketing planning, as well as the possibility of obtaining competitive edge through the use of the information system.

Value of information-based inspection planning for offshore structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Irman, Arifian Agusta; Thöns, Sebastian; Leira, Bernt J.

2017-01-01

with each inspection strategy. A simplified and generic risk-based inspection planning utilizing pre- posterior Bayesian decision analysis had been proposed by Faber et al. [1] and Straub [2]. This paper provides considerations on the theoretical background and a Value of Information analysis......-based inspection planning. The paper will start out with a review of the state-of-art RBI planning procedure based on Bayesian decision theory and its application in offshore structure integrity management. An example of the Value of Information approach is illustrated and it is pointed to further research......Asset integrity and management is an important part of the oil and gas industry especially for existing offshore structures. With declining oil price, the production rate is an important factor to be maintained that makes integrity of the structures one of the main concerns. Reliability based...

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

2011-01-01

development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change......Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...

Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

1997-11-01

The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Albert

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

World Future Mapping and Scenarios for the 21st Century

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vareikis Egidijus

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this text is to describe the methods of future studies, its possibilities and limitations, as well as to make some predictions about the real picture of the development of the 21st century. However, the planning is still not very reliable, and far from a “road map” framework. Thus, future studies are still balancing between science and scientific/artistic fiction. The set of methods of future investigation permits one to compose a few or even up to dozens of medium term or long term scenarios of the world’s future. There are a few well-proven laws of social and economic development as well as some partially predictable phenomena in the area of environment, biology, human ethic, etc. No future planning is secure from unpredictable phenomena – “black swans” – and their impact, nor secure from “political decisions” that destroy natural developments in society. So no one scenario can pretend to be absolutely right. The most frequent future scenarios are based on the wish to implement a copy of an existing “happy nation”, to fight undesirable trends, and create some kind of “dream society” while stimulating positives and inhibiting negative trends. The final version of a scenario depends also upon the “human factors”, e.g. knowledge, stereotypes of thinking, as well as the wishes of those who are financing the project. Generally they are “happy end” projects. This makes scenarios rather useless. Only the independent experts that present more realistic and reliable scenarios can help in the planning of medium term and long term futures. Currently many scenarios foresee the so-called American or European way of development, which is in fact the continuation of the existing world order. There is a growing number of publications about the emergence of China (and Russia as a great power as well as possibilities of a New Caliphate, New Messiah or new Orwellian style regimes.

Resource Planning Model: An Integrated Resource Planning and Dispatch Tool for Regional Electric Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, T.; Drury, E.; Eurek, K.; Bodington, N.; Lopez, A.; Perry, A.

2013-01-01

This report introduces a new capacity expansion model, the Resource Planning Model (RPM), with high spatial and temporal resolution that can be used for mid- and long-term scenario planning of regional power systems. Although RPM can be adapted to any geographic region, the report describes an initial version of the model adapted for the power system in Colorado. It presents examples of scenario results from the first version of the model, including an example of a 30%-by-2020 renewable electricity penetration scenario.

Implications of Model Structure and Detail for Utility Planning. Scenario Case Studies using the Resource Planning Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barrows, Clayton [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dyson, Mark [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Eurek, Kelly [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-04-23

We examine how model investment decisions change under different model configurations and assumptions related to renewable capacity credit, the inclusion or exclusion of operating reserves, dispatch period sampling, transmission power flow modeling, renewable spur line costs, and the ability of a planning region to import and export power. For all modeled scenarios, we find that under market conditions where new renewable deployment is predominantly driven by renewable portfolio standards, model representations of wind and solar capacity credit and interactions between balancing areas are most influential in avoiding model investments in excess thermal capacity. We also compare computation time between configurations to evaluate tradeoffs between computational burden and model accuracy. From this analysis, we find that certain advanced dispatch representations (e.g., DC optimal power flow) can have dramatic adverse effects on computation time but can be largely inconsequential to model investment outcomes, at least at the renewable penetration levels modeled. Finally, we find that certain underappreciated aspects of new capacity investment decisions and model representations thereof, such as spur lines for new renewable capacity, can influence model outcomes particularly in the renewable technology and location chosen by the model. Though this analysis is not comprehensive and results are specific to the model region, input assumptions, and optimization-modeling framework employed, the findings are intended to provide a guide for model improvement opportunities.

Planning for Crew Exercise for Future Deep Space Mission Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Cherice; Ryder, Jeff

2015-01-01

Providing the necessary exercise capability to protect crew health for deep space missions will bring new sets of engineering and research challenges. Exercise has been found to be a necessary mitigation for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to earth's gravity. Health and exercise data from Apollo, Space Lab, Shuttle, and International Space Station missions have provided insight into crew deconditioning and the types of activities that can minimize the impacts of microgravity on the physiological systems. The hardware systems required to implement exercise can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Exercise system design requires encompassing the hardware required to provide mission specific anthropometrical movement ranges, desired loads, and frequencies of desired movements as well as the supporting control and monitoring systems, crew and vehicle interfaces, and vibration isolation and stabilization subsystems. The number of crew and operational constraints also contribute to defining the what exercise systems will be needed. All of these features require flight vehicle mass and volume integrated with multiple vehicle systems. The International Space Station exercise hardware requires over 1,800 kg of equipment and over 24 m3 of volume for hardware and crew operational space. Improvements towards providing equivalent or better capabilities with a smaller vehicle impact will facilitate future deep space missions. Deep space missions will require more understanding of the physiological responses to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, designing the exercise systems to provide needed mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

Spatial distribution and landuse planning of informal automobile ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Spatial distribution and landuse planning of informal automobile workshops in Osogbo, ... data pertaining to the activities and other related issues of their workshops. ... The study therefore, recommends the establishment of mechanic complex, ...

Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kok, K.; Biggs, R.; Zurek, M.

2007-01-01

Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple

Scenario development and evaluation for the NPP Krsko revised decommissioning program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levanat, I.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

2004-01-01

In this first revision, several integrated scenarios of the NPP Krsko dismantling and waste management were developed and analyzed in order to estimate the decommissioning program (DP) costs and to propose an appropriate funding plan. Most dismantling technologies and cost estimates were derived from the original decommissioning plan adopted in 1996. The LILW disposal cost estimates, however, rely on the tunnel type facility design which was developed in Slovenia a few years ago, whereas the SF repository design for this DP was adapted from the Swedish deep disposal concept. The starting assumptions for this DP were that the LILW repository would be licensed by 2013, the NPP would be permanently shut down in 2023, and the SF repository would become available in 2030. The boundary conditions also specified that DP should first re-evaluate the SID strategy from the original plan (Strategy Immediate Dismantling with immediate SF disposal, but also with a long period of on-site decay storage for the activated components, so that it actually terminates only after 96 years), and then modify it to achieve truly prompt decommissioning in which all planned activities should be completed within about 15 years after the NPP shut-down. In addition, the option of SF export to a third country should be introduced in all DP scenarios, as a realistic alternative to SF disposal into the local repository (in Slovenia or in Croatia). And finally, dry storage of SF for some 30 years before disposal or export, in an independent installation on unspecified location, should be evaluated within the DP sensitivity analysis. After a thorough analysis of the original SID strategy, it became clear that substantial modifications would be necessary in order to meet the boundary conditions while complying with the specified design and technologies of the assumed LILW and SF disposal facilities. Therefore, a systematic procedure for development and financial evaluation of feasible scenarios was

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Practical Problems in Connection with the Planning and Introduction of Information Systems. Technical Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Klose, Traugott

Major reforms brought about in July 1969 at the Free University of Berlin in its organization, planning, and decision making are reviewed. Specific problems are addressed, such as plans for introducing an information system on technical data and space use, plans for an information system on personnel employed by the university, and plans for an…

Pattern-based information portal for business plan co-creation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tanev, Stoyan; Bontchev, Boyan; Ruskov, Petko

2010-01-01

in order to help them in development of effective and efficient business plans. It will facilitate entrepreneurs in co-experimenting and co-learning more frequently and faster. Moreover, the paper focuses on the software architecture of the pattern based portal and explains the functionality of its modules......Creation of business plans helps entrepreneurs in managing identification of business opportunities and committing necessary resources for process evolution. Applying patterns in business plan creation facilitates the identification of effective solutions that were adopted in the past and may...... provide a basis for adopting similar solutions in the future within given business context. The article presents the system design of an information portal for business plan cocreation based on patterns. The portal is going to provide start-up and entrepreneurs with ready-to-modify business plan patterns...

A GIS based watershed information system for water resources management and planning in semi-arid areas

Science.gov (United States)

Tzabiras, John; Spiliotopoulos, Marios; Kokkinos, Kostantinos; Fafoutis, Chrysostomos; Sidiropoulos, Pantelis; Vasiliades, Lampros; Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Mylopoulos, Nikitas

2015-04-01

The overall objective of this work is the development of an Information System which could be used by stakeholders for the purposes of water management as well as for planning and strategic decision-making in semi-arid areas. An integrated modeling system has been developed and applied to evaluate the sustainability of water resources management strategies in Lake Karla watershed, Greece. The modeling system, developed in the framework of "HYDROMENTOR" research project, is based on a GIS modelling approach which uses remote sensing data and includes coupled models for the simulation of surface water and groundwater resources, the operation of hydrotechnical projects (reservoir operation and irrigation works) and the estimation of water demands at several spatial scales. Lake Karla basin was the region where the system was tested but the methodology may be the basis for future analysis elsewhere. Τwo (2) base and three (3) management scenarios were investigated. In total, eight (8) water management scenarios were evaluated: i) Base scenario without operation of the reservoir and the designed Lake Karla district irrigation network (actual situation) • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation ii) Base scenario including the operation of the reservoir and the Lake Karla district irrigation network • Reduction of channel losses • Alteration of irrigation methods • Introduction of greenhouse cultivation The results show that, under the existing water resources management, the water deficit of Lake Karla watershed is very large. However, the operation of the reservoir and the cooperative Lake Karla district irrigation network coupled with water demand management measures, like reduction of water distribution system losses and alteration of irrigation methods, could alleviate the problem and lead to sustainable and ecological use of water resources in the study area. Acknowledgements: This study

Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

2016-08-01

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

Implementing the global plan to stop TB, 2011-2015--optimizing allocations and the Global Fund's contribution: a scenario projections study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eline L Korenromp

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Global Plan to Stop TB estimates funding required in low- and middle-income countries to achieve TB control targets set by the Stop TB Partnership within the context of the Millennium Development Goals. We estimate the contribution and impact of Global Fund investments under various scenarios of allocations across interventions and regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using Global Plan assumptions on expected cases and mortality, we estimate treatment costs and mortality impact for diagnosis and treatment for drug-sensitive and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB, including antiretroviral treatment (ART during DOTS for HIV-co-infected patients, for four country groups, overall and for the Global Fund investments. In 2015, China and India account for 24% of funding need, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA for 33%, sub-Saharan Africa (SSA for 20%, and other low- and middle-income countries for 24%. Scale-up of MDR-TB treatment, especially in EECA, drives an increasing global TB funding need--an essential investment to contain the mortality burden associated with MDR-TB and future disease costs. Funding needs rise fastest in SSA, reflecting increasing coverage need of improved TB/HIV management, which saves most lives per dollar spent in the short term. The Global Fund is expected to finance 8-12% of Global Plan implementation costs annually. Lives saved through Global Fund TB support within the available funding envelope could increase 37% if allocations shifted from current regional demand patterns to a prioritized scale-up of improved TB/HIV treatment and secondly DOTS, both mainly in Africa--with EECA region, which has disproportionately high per-patient costs, funded from alternative resources. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings, alongside country funding gaps, domestic funding and implementation capacity and equity considerations, should inform strategies and policies for international donors, national governments and

Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Mazzorana

2009-02-01

Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

Science.gov (United States)

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

Inter-Firm Information Sharing in Enterprise Resource Planning Systems: a call for timely but limited access to customer information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Busing

2001-11-01

Full Text Available Current trends in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP suggest that supply chain management and tight control over scheduling jobs within the supply chain are key tactical planning issues. Modern ERP software packages, in conjunction with the World Wide Web, allow for automated exchange of information within a company and also between two or more companies (i.e., conveyance of customer information to suppliers of parts and components for the purposes of effective planning and control. While ease of information exchange between a customer and supplier is increasingly critical to the success of modern-day planning and control efforts, the issue of information security is also a very real concern. Suppliers can benefit from gaining access to a customer's dispatch list and material requirements plan (MRP in order to determine real-time priority of jobs in queue at various work centers within their own organization. Other customer information, however, should remain secure and unavailable to supplier firms for competitive reasons such as threat of forward integration. This paper presents a previously tested priority-sequencing rule that explicitly considers downstream shop conditions in determining which job to run next The rule proves to perform well on mean flow time and lateness as well as on variability of these measures. The rule is extended here to incorporate the case where a downstream work center is outside official corporate boundaries. With the call for free exchange of information comes the threat of other, perhaps proprietary, information being accessed by vendors or others outside the official corporate boundaries. The paper will propose information that should be freely exchanged between customers and suppliers and information that should remain secure. Finally, practical measures to manage access to web-enabled ERP information will be proposed.

Solid waste information and tracking system client-server conversion project management plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

May, D.L.

1998-01-01

This Project Management Plan is the lead planning document governing the proposed conversion of the Solid Waste Information and Tracking System (SWITS) to a client-server architecture. This plan presents the content specified by American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) standards for software development, with additional information categories deemed to be necessary to describe the conversion fully. This plan is a living document that will be reviewed on a periodic basis and revised when necessary to reflect changes in baseline design concepts and schedules. This PMP describes the background, planning and management of the SWITS conversion. It does not constitute a statement of product requirements. Requirements and specification documentation needed for the SWITS conversion will be released as supporting documents

Future demand scenarios of Bangladesh power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mondal, Md. Alam Hossain; Boie, Wulf; Denich, Manfred

2010-01-01

Data on the future electricity demand is an essential requirement for planning the expansion of a power system. The purpose of this study is to provide a general overview of electricity consumption in Bangladesh, forecast sector-wise electricity demand up to 2035 considering the base year 2005, and compare the results with official projections. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model with three scenarios, namely low gross domestic product (GDP) growth, average GDP growth and high GDP growth, is applied in this study. In the low to high GDP growth scenarios, the extent of industrial restructuring and technical advancement is gradually increased. The findings have significant implications with respect to energy conservation and economic development. The study also compares the projected per capita electricity consumption in Bangladesh with the historical growth in several other developing countries. Such an evaluation can create awareness among the planners of power system expansion in Bangladesh to meet the high future demand.

SIMULATION OF CARS ACCUMULATION PROCESSES FOR SOLVING TASKS OF OPERATIONAL PLANNING IN CONDITIONS OF INITIAL INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

О. A. Tereshchenko

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The article highlights development of the methodological basis for simulation the processes of cars accumulation in solving operational planning problems under conditions of initial information uncertainty for assessing the sustainability of the adopted planning scenario and calculating the associated technological risks. Methodology. The solution of the problem under investigation is based on the use of general scientific approaches, the apparatus of probability theory and the theory of fuzzy sets. To achieve this purpose, the factors influencing the entropy of operational plans are systematized. It is established that when planning the operational work of railway stations, sections and nodes, the most significant factors that cause uncertainty in the initial information are: a external conditions with respect to the railway ground in question, expressed by the uncertainty of the timing of cars arrivals; b external, hard-to-identify goals for the functioning of other participants in the logistics chain (primarily customers, expressed by the uncertainty of the completion time with the freight cars. These factors are suggested to be taken into account in automated planning through statistical analysis – the establishment and study of the remaining time (prediction errors. As a result, analytical dependencies are proposed for rational representation of the probability density functions of the time residual distribution in the form of point, piecewise-defined and continuous analytic models. The developed models of cars accumulation, the application of which depends on the identified states of the predicted incoming car flow to the accumulation system, are presented below. In addition, the last proposed model is a general case of models of accumulation processes with an arbitrary level of reliability of the initial information for any structure of the incoming flow of cars. In conclusion, a technique for estimating the results of

Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

1996-01-01

This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

Information And Data-Sharing Plan of IPY China Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.; Cheng, W.

2007-12-01

Polar Data-Sharing is an effective resolution to global system and polar science problems and to interdisciplinary and sustainable study, as well as an important means to deal with IPY scientific heritages and realize IPY goals. Corresponding to IPY Data-Sharing policies, Information and Data-Sharing Plan was listed in five sub-plans of IPY Chinese Programme launched in March, 2007,they are Scientific research program of the Prydz Bay, Amery Ice Shelf and Dome A transects(short title:'PANDA'), the Arctic Scientific Research Expedition Plan, International Cooperation Plan, Information and Data-Sharing Plan, Education and Outreach. China, since the foundation of Antarctic Zhongshan Station in 1989, has carried out systematic scientific expeditions and researches in Larsemann Hills, Prydz Bay and the neighbouring sea areas, organized 14 Prydz Bay oceanographic investigations, 3 Amery Ice Shelf expeditions, 4 Grove Mountains expeditions and 5 inland ice cap scientific expeditions. 2 comprehensive oceanographic investigations in the Arctic Ocean were conducted in 1999 and 2003, acquired a large amount of data and samples in PANDA section and fan areas of Pacific Ocean in the Arctic Ocean. A mechanism of basic data submitting ,sharing and archiving has been gradually set up since 2000. Presently, Polar Science Database and Polar Sample Resource Sharing Platform of China with the aim of sharing polar data and samples has been initially established and began to provide sharing service to domestic and oversea users. According to IPY Chinese Activity, 2 scientific expeditions in the Arctic Ocean, 3 in the South Ocean, 2 at Amery Ice Shelf, 1 on Grove Mountains and 2 inland ice cap expeditions on Dome A will be carried out during IPY period. According to the experiences accumulated in the past and the jobs in the future, the Information and Data- Sharing Plan, during 2007-2010, will save, archive, and provide exchange and sharing services upon the data obtained by scientific

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Somoza-Cabrera

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

CH2M Hill Hanford Group Inc (CHG) Information Resource Management (IRM) Strategic Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NELSON, R.L.

2000-05-08

The CH2M Hill Hanford Group, Inc., Information Resource Management Strategic Plan is the top-level planning document for applying information and information resource management to achieve the CHG mission for the management of the River Protection Project

CH2M Hill Hanford Group Inc (CHG) Information Resource Management (IRM) Strategic Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

NELSON, R.L.

2000-01-01

The CH2M Hill Hanford Group, Inc., Information Resource Management Strategic Plan is the top-level planning document for applying information and information resource management to achieve the CHG mission for the management of the River Protection Project

Documentation of databases in the Wilmar Planning tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiviluioma, J.; Meimbom, P.

2006-01-01

The Wilmar Planning tool consists of a number of databases and models as shown in Figure 1. This report documents the design of the following subparts of the Wilmar Planning tool: 1. The Scenario database holding the scenario trees generated from the Scenario Tree Creation model. 2. The Input database holding input data to the Joint Market model and the Long-term model apart from the scenario trees. 3. The output database containing the results of a Joint Market model run. The Wilmar Planning Tool is developed in the project Wind Power Integration in Liberalised Electricity Markets (WILMAR) supported by EU (contract ENK5-CT-2002-00663). (LN)

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

2008-04-01

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of

The importance of realistic dispersal models in conservation planning: application of a novel modelling platform to evaluate management scenarios in an Afrotropical biodiversity hotspot.

Science.gov (United States)

Aben, Job; Bocedi, Greta; Palmer, Stephen C F; Pellikka, Petri; Strubbe, Diederik; Hallmann, Caspar; Travis, Justin M J; Lens, Luc; Matthysen, Erik

2016-08-01

As biodiversity hotspots are often characterized by high human population densities, implementation of conservation management practices that focus only on the protection and enlargement of pristine habitats is potentially unrealistic. An alternative approach to curb species extinction risk involves improving connectivity among existing habitat patches. However, evaluation of spatially explicit management strategies is challenging, as predictive models must account for the process of dispersal, which is difficult in terms of both empirical data collection and modelling.Here, we use a novel, individual-based modelling platform that couples demographic and mechanistic dispersal models to evaluate the effectiveness of realistic management scenarios tailored to conserve forest birds in a highly fragmented biodiversity hotspot. Scenario performance is evaluated based on the spatial population dynamics of a well-studied forest bird species.The largest population increase was predicted to occur under scenarios increasing habitat area. However, the effectiveness was sensitive to spatial planning. Compared to adding one large patch to the habitat network, adding several small patches yielded mixed benefits: although overall population sizes increased, specific newly created patches acted as dispersal sinks, which compromised population persistence in some existing patches. Increasing matrix connectivity by the creation of stepping stones is likely to result in enhanced dispersal success and occupancy of smaller patches. Synthesis and applications . We show that the effectiveness of spatial management is strongly driven by patterns of individual dispersal across landscapes. For species conservation planning, we advocate the use of models that incorporate adequate realism in demography and, particularly, in dispersal behaviours.

Radioactive waste assessment using 'moderate growth in nuclear electricity generation' scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.

1985-05-01

This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation scenario -Scheme 3. Scheme 3 assumes a moderate growth in nuclear generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups: (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants; (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment, and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

Science.gov (United States)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

Environmental Assessment of Possible Future Waste Management Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yevgeniya Arushanyan

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Waste management has developed in many countries and will continue to do so. Changes towards increased recovery of resources in order to meet climate targets and for society to transition to a circular economy are important driving forces. Scenarios are important tools for planning and assessing possible future developments and policies. This paper presents a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA model for environmental assessments of scenarios and waste management policy instruments. It is unique by including almost all waste flows in a country and also allow for including waste prevention. The results show that the environmental impacts from future waste management scenarios in Sweden can differ a lot. Waste management will continue to contribute with environmental benefits, but less so in the more sustainable future scenarios, since the surrounding energy and transportation systems will be less polluting and also because less waste will be produced. Valuation results indicate that climate change, human toxicity and resource depletion are the most important environmental impact categories for the Swedish waste management system. Emissions of fossil CO2 from waste incineration will continue to be a major source of environmental impacts in these scenarios. The model is used for analyzing environmental impacts of several policy instruments including weight based collection fee, incineration tax, a resource tax and inclusion of waste in a green electricity certification system. The effect of the studied policy instruments in isolation are in most cases limited, suggesting that stronger policy instruments as well as combinations are necessary to reach policy goals as set out in for example the EU action plan on circular economy.

CH2M Hill Hanford Group Inc (CHG) Information Resource Management (IRM) Strategic Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NELSON, R.L.

2000-06-06

The CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG), Information Resource Management Strategic Plan is the top-level planning document for applying information and information resource management to achieve the CHG mission for the management of the River Protection Project waste tank farm.

CH2M Hill Hanford Group Inc (CHG) Information Resource Management (IRM) Strategic Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

NELSON, R.L.

2000-01-01

The CH2M HILL Hanford Group, Inc. (CHG), Information Resource Management Strategic Plan is the top-level planning document for applying information and information resource management to achieve the CHG mission for the management of the River Protection Project waste tank farm

Electrical demand forecast in two different scenarios of socio-economic development; Proyeccion de la demanda electrica para dos escenarios de desarrollo socio-economico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goni, M R [Comision Nacional de Energia Atomica, San Martin (Argentina). Unidad de Actividad Reactores y Centrales Nucleares

1997-12-31

A projection of electrical demand for two different scenarios is presented in the study. The study period is 1993-2010 and 1993 has been taken as base year. In this planning study MAED program was used as well as all available information from INDEC (National Statistical Body), CAMMESA (Electrical Market Company) and Ministery of Economy. The results in the base year achieved an accuracy higher than 98%. The scenarios described two different rates of growth and electrical penetration in energy uses. (author). 3 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs.

Contraceptive security, information flow, and local adaptations: family planning Morocco.

Science.gov (United States)

Chandani, Y; Breton, G

2001-12-01

Many developing countries increasingly recognize and acknowledge family planning as a critical part of socio-economic development. However, with few health dollars to go around, countries tend to provide essential drugs for curative care, rather than for family planning products. Donors have historically provided free contraceptives for family planning services. Whether products are donated or purchased by the country, a successful family planning program depends on an uninterrupted supply of products, beginning with the manufacturer and ending with the customer. Any break in the supply chain may cause a family planning program to fail. A well-functioning logistics system can manage the supply chain and ensure that the customers have the products they need, when they need them. Morocco was selected for the case study. The researchers had ready access to key informants and information about the Logistics Management Information System. Because the study had time and resource constraints, research included desktop reviews and interview, rather than data collection in the field. The case study showed that even in a challenging environment an LMIS can be successfully deployed and fully supported by the users. It is critical to customize the system to a country-specific situation to ensure buy-in for the implementation. Significant external support funding and technical expertise are critical components to ensure the initial success of the system. Nonetheless, evidence from the case study shows that, after a system has been implemented, the benefits may not ensure its institutionalization. Other support, including local funding and technical expertise, is required.

Strategic plan for Hanford site information management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

The Hanford Site missions are to clean up the Site, to provide scientific knowledge and technology to meet global needs, and to partner in the economic diversification of the region. To achieve these long-term missions and increase confidence in the quality of the Site's decision making process, a dramatically different information management culture is required, consistent with US Department of Energy (DOE) mandates on increased safety, productivity, and openness at its sites. This plan presents a vision and six strategies that will move the Site toward an information management culture that will support the Site missions and address the mandates of DOE

77 FR 16862 - Proposed Information Collection Request; Training, Training Plans, and Records

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-22

...; Training, Training Plans, and Records AGENCY: Mine Safety and Health Administration, Labor. ACTION: Request... proposed extension of the information collection related to training, training plans, and records at these.... Agency: Mine Safety and Health Administration. Title: Part 46--Training, Training Plans, and Records. OMB...

Scenario Customization for Information Extraction

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Yangarber, Roman

2001-01-01

Information Extraction (IE) is an emerging NLP technology, whose function is to process unstructured, natural language text, to locate specific pieces of information, or facts, in the text, and to use these facts to fill a database...

Preservation of information about the repository for spent nuclear fuels - proposal for action plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowen-Schrire, Monica; Eckerhall, Daniel; Jander, Hans; Waniewska, Katarina

2008-10-01

This report is a proposal for an action plan with the ultimate aim of ensuring that information about the repository for spent nuclear fuel can be preserved and transferred for future generations. The purpose of the proposal for an action plan is to present ideas on tangible measures and guidelines for information preservation and transfer, in the short and long term. The report deals with a number of aspects relating to information preservation as well as risks that can lead to the loss of important information. The proposal for an action plan is based on reasoning about these subjects. The main emphasis is on measures that need to be implemented in the near future to ensure that successive and direct information transfer is handled in a suitable manner. It is suggested that the following measures should be implemented within a five-year period: - Designate a person responsible for information preservation. - Work out guidelines for information preservation and transfer. - Form a network with other organizations in Sweden. - Initiate a dialogue with other countries, especially USA and France. - Participate in seminars, conferences and workgroups on an international level within the IAEA and NEA. In a longer time perspective the following measures should also be implemented: - Implement guidelines for information preservation and transfer. - Document the archiving system. - Establish a communication plan. - Archive information about the repository. - Keep the action plan up to date

10 CFR 719.10 - What information must be included in the legal management plan?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false What information must be included in the legal management plan? 719.10 Section 719.10 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY CONTRACTOR LEGAL MANAGEMENT REQUIREMENTS Legal Management Plan § 719.10 What information must be included in the legal management plan? The legal management...

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

Business plan as a source of information for making business decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boškov Veronika

2016-01-01

Full Text Available For the successful development and business support, it is necessary to inform all interested parties about the structure of the transaction, future development plans, the resources needed for the realization, the effects which we plan to achieve and of course financial outcomes that will follow from that job. The business plan is important precondition for starting any business venture, as well as for realisation of that business. Modern business conditions are characterized by intensive changes in the market, strong competition and increasingly demanding customers. Modern business involves meticulous market research and the possibility of profitable use of capital, which is achieved through the simulation of a business plan. It could be said that a business plan is a map of activities for developing business ideas, with all the necessary activities and resources - a map that has been tested and tested/checked first on paper. The business plan does not guarantee the company success, but is definitely a secure way to increase the likelihood of success and present a set of projected activities through the relevant, understandable and accurate information. The results of these activities are appeling to all stakeholders and motivate them to achieve set goals.

Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

2012-01-01

Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...... short period of time. The set-up and the results were discussed with a few experts from the Danish Ministry of the Environment and its value as discussion input recognized. The approach offers a lot of possibilities to discuss urban growth and spatial planning policies, even in a country with a strong...

A GIS-based tool for an integrated assessment of spatial planning trade-offs with aquaculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Gimpel, Antje; Stelzenmüller, Vanessa; Töpsch, Sandra; Galparsoro, Ibon; Gubbins, Matthew; Miller, David; Murillas, Arantza; Murray, Alexander G; Pınarbaşı, Kemal; Roca, Guillem; Watret, Robert

2018-06-15

The increasing demand for protein from aquaculture will trigger a global expansion of the sector in coastal and offshore waters. While contributing to food security, potential conflicts with other traditional activities such as fisheries or tourism are inevitable, thus calling for decision-support tools to assess aquaculture planning scenarios in a multi-use context. Here we introduce the AquaSpace tool, one of the first Geographic Information System (GIS)-based planning tools empowering an integrated assessment and mapping of 30 indicators reflecting economic, environmental, inter-sectorial and socio-cultural risks and opportunities for proposed aquaculture systems in a marine environment. A bottom-up process consulting more than 350 stakeholders from 10 countries across southern and northern Europe enabled the direct consideration of stakeholder needs when developing the GIS AddIn. The AquaSpace tool is an open source product and builds in the prospective use of open source datasets at a European scale, hence aiming to improve reproducibility and collaboration in aquaculture science and research. Tool outputs comprise detailed reports and graphics allowing key stakeholders such as planners or licensing authorities to evaluate and communicate alternative planning scenarios and to take more informed decisions. With the help of the German North Sea case study we demonstrate here the tool application at multiple spatial scales with different aquaculture systems and under a range of space-related development constraints. The computation of these aquaculture planning scenarios and the assessment of their trade-offs showed that it is entirely possible to identify aquaculture sites, that correspondent to multifarious potential challenges, for instance by a low conflict potential, a low risk of disease spread, a comparable high economic profit and a low impact on touristic attractions. We believe that a transparent visualisation of risks and opportunities of aquaculture

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR ENHANCING STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL PLANNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Akram Jalal Karim

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Management Information Systems (MIS is the key factor to facilitate and attain efficient decision making in an organization. This research explores the extent to which management information systems implemented to make successful decisions at two selected financial organizations. The research examined whether the selected financial institutions of Bahrain vary as to the use of Management Information Systems leadership of decision making for strategic and tactical planning purposes. The research adapted the quantitative research design to examine two research hypotheses. A total of 190 forms were equally distributed to those who are working at different management levels at the selected organizations. The results of the research showed that MIS was primarily used to enhance strategic planning in both financial institutions. The regression analysis revealed that Tactical planning is found to have no effect on Decision Making, while Strategic planning has a clear effect on the Decision Making Effectiveness in both organizations

PM2006: a highly scalable urban planning management information system--Case study: Suzhou Urban Planning Bureau

Science.gov (United States)

Jing, Changfeng; Liang, Song; Ruan, Yong; Huang, Jie

2008-10-01

During the urbanization process, when facing complex requirements of city development, ever-growing urban data, rapid development of planning business and increasing planning complexity, a scalable, extensible urban planning management information system is needed urgently. PM2006 is such a system that can deal with these problems. In response to the status and problems in urban planning, the scalability and extensibility of PM2006 are introduced which can be seen as business-oriented workflow extensibility, scalability of DLL-based architecture, flexibility on platforms of GIS and database, scalability of data updating and maintenance and so on. It is verified that PM2006 system has good extensibility and scalability which can meet the requirements of all levels of administrative divisions and can adapt to ever-growing changes in urban planning business. At the end of this paper, the application of PM2006 in Urban Planning Bureau of Suzhou city is described.

Use of information systems in Air Force medical treatment facilities in strategic planning and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Yap, Glenn A; Platonova, Elena A; Musa, Philip F

2006-02-01

An exploratory study used Ansoff's strategic planning model as a framework to assess perceived effectiveness of information systems in supporting strategic business plan development at Air Force medical treatment facilities (MTFs). Results showed information systems were most effective in supporting historical trend analysis, strategic business plans appeared to be a balance of operational and strategic plans, and facilities perceived a greater need for new clinical, vice administrative, information systems to support strategic planning processes. Administrators believed information systems should not be developed at the local level and perceived information systems have the greatest impact on improving clinical quality outcomes, followed by ability to deliver cost effective care and finally, ability to increase market share.

Describing Long-Term Electricity Demand Scenarios in the Telecommunications Industry: A Case Study of Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yusuke Kishita

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Due to the rapid expansion of information and communication technology (ICT usage, the telecommunications industry is faced with a challenge to promote green ICT toward achieving a low-carbon society. One critical obstacle in planning long-term strategies for green ICT is the uncertainty of various external factors, such as consumers’ lifestyle and technological advancement. To tackle this issue, this paper employs a scenario planning method to analyze electricity consumption in the telecommunications industry, where both changes in various external factors and energy-saving measures are assumed. We propose a model to estimate future electricity consumption of the telecommunications industry using a statistical approach. In a case study, we describe four scenarios that differ in the diffusion of ICT and the technological advancement of ICT equipment in order to analyze the electricity consumption in Japan’s telecommunications industry to 2030. The results reveal that the electricity consumption in 2030 becomes 0.7–1.6-times larger than the 2012 level (10.7 TWh/year. It is also shown that the most effective measures to reduce the electricity consumption include improving the energy efficiency of IP (Internet Protocol communication equipment and mobile communication equipment.

Factors Influencing Laboratory Information System Effectiveness Through Strategic Planning in Shiraz Teaching Hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Bahador, Fateme; Sharifian, Roxana; Farhadi, Payam; Jafari, Abdosaleh; Nematolahi, Mohtram; Shokrpour, Nasrin

This study aimed to develop and test a research model that examined 7effective factors on the effectiveness of laboratory information system (LIS) through strategic planning. This research was carried out on total laboratory staff, information technology staff, and laboratory managers in Shiraz (a city in the south of Iran) teaching hospitals by structural equation modeling approach in 2015. The results revealed that there was no significant positive relationship between decisions based on cost-benefit analysis and LIS functionality with LIS effectiveness, but there was a significant positive relationship between other factors and LIS effectiveness. As expected, high levels of strategic information system planning result in increasing LIS effectiveness. The results also showed that the relationship between cost-benefit analysis, LIS functionality, end-user involvement, and information technology-business alignment with strategic information system planning was significant and positive.

Incorporating informality into urban and regional planning education ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

training on informality in African planning schools with emphasis on the Lagos, Nigeria situation. ..... areas with insufficient basic services, as has been ..... The Lagos Parking. Authority Cap. 95 of 1980 provides for a parking authority to develop truck terminals, horizontal high-rises and off-street parking spaces, and charge.

ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Antonio Conejero

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995 and Schwartz´s (1991 earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i identify the focal issue; ii summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv validate driving forces with specialists; v rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.

Scenario Focus Group Workshop Report (2nd SFG Meeting)

OpenAIRE

Water Futures and Solution Initiative, (WFaS)

2016-01-01

The Scenario Focus Group (SFG) is comprised of water policy and planning decision makers at the national and international level who collaborate within the Water Futures and Solutions Initiative, primarily by identifying key water management challenges, priorities, trends, options, and trade-offs within their regions and advising on where further systems analysis and investigation would be most helpful for understanding externalities and guiding planning decisions. The SFG guides the developm...

Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yang

2017-08-01

User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

ANL site response for the DOE FY1994 information resources management long-range plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boxberger, L.M.

1992-03-01

Argonne National Laboratory's ANL Site Response for the DOE FY1994 Information Resources Management (IRM) Long-Range Plan (ANL/TM 500) is one of many contributions to the DOE information resources management long-range planning process and, as such, is an integral part of the DOE policy and program planning system. The Laboratory has constructed this response according to instructions in a Call issued in September 1991 by the DOE Office of IRM Policy, Plans and Oversight. As one of a continuing series, this Site Response is an update and extension of the Laboratory's previous submissions. The response contains both narrative and tabular material. It covers an eight-year period consisting of the base year (FY1991), the current year (FY1992), the budget year (FY1993), the plan year (FY1994), and the out years (FY1995-FY1998). This Site Response was compiled by Argonne National Laboratory's Computing and Telecommunications Division (CTD), which has the responsibility to provide leadership in optimizing computing and information services and disseminating computer-related technologies throughout the Laboratory. The Site Response consists of 5 parts: (1) a site overview, describes the ANL mission, overall organization structure, the strategic approach to meet information resource needs, the planning process, major issues and points of contact. (2) a software plan for DOE contractors, Part 2B, Software Plan FMS plan for DOE organizations, (3) computing resources telecommunications, (4) telecommunications, (5) printing and publishing.

ANL site response for the DOE FY1994 information resources management long-range plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boxberger, L.M.

1992-03-01

Argonne National Laboratory`s ANL Site Response for the DOE FY1994 Information Resources Management (IRM) Long-Range Plan (ANL/TM 500) is one of many contributions to the DOE information resources management long-range planning process and, as such, is an integral part of the DOE policy and program planning system. The Laboratory has constructed this response according to instructions in a Call issued in September 1991 by the DOE Office of IRM Policy, Plans and Oversight. As one of a continuing series, this Site Response is an update and extension of the Laboratory`s previous submissions. The response contains both narrative and tabular material. It covers an eight-year period consisting of the base year (FY1991), the current year (FY1992), the budget year (FY1993), the plan year (FY1994), and the out years (FY1995-FY1998). This Site Response was compiled by Argonne National Laboratory`s Computing and Telecommunications Division (CTD), which has the responsibility to provide leadership in optimizing computing and information services and disseminating computer-related technologies throughout the Laboratory. The Site Response consists of 5 parts: (1) a site overview, describes the ANL mission, overall organization structure, the strategic approach to meet information resource needs, the planning process, major issues and points of contact. (2) a software plan for DOE contractors, Part 2B, ``Software Plan FMS plan for DOE organizations, (3) computing resources telecommunications, (4) telecommunications, (5) printing and publishing.

Region based route planning - Multi-abstraction route planning based on intermediate level vision processing

Science.gov (United States)

Doshi, Rajkumar S.; Lam, Raymond; White, James E.

1989-01-01

Intermediate and high level processing operations are performed on vision data for the organization of images into more meaningful, higher-level topological representations by means of a region-based route planner (RBRP). The RBRP operates in terrain scenarios where some or most of the terrain is occluded, proceeding without a priori maps on the basis of two-dimensional representations and gradient-and-roughness information. Route planning is accomplished by three successive abstractions and yields a detailed point-by-point path by searching only within the boundaries of relatively small regions.

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

Science.gov (United States)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Roberts, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Funk, C.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2014-01-01

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will

Earthquake Scenarios Based Upon the Data and Methodologies of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

Science.gov (United States)

Rukstales, K. S.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D.; Harmsen, S. C.; Wald, D. J.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Haller, K. M.

2011-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthquake scenarios that are based on the same fault source parameters and empirical ground motion prediction equations used for the probabilistic hazard maps. Unlike the calculated hazard map ground motions, local soil amplification is applied to the scenario calculations based on the best available Vs30 (average shear-wave velocity down to 30 meters) mapping, or in some cases using topographic slope as a proxy. Systematic outputs include all standard USGS ShakeMap products, including GIS, KML, XML, and HAZUS input files. These data are available from the ShakeMap web pages with a searchable archive. The scenarios are being produced within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS) so that alternative scenarios can readily be produced by altering fault source parameters, Vs30 soil amplification, as well as the weighting of ground motion prediction equations used in the calculations. The alternative scenarios can then be used for sensitivity analysis studies to better characterize uncertainty in the source model and convey this information to decision makers. By providing a comprehensive collection of earthquake scenarios based upon the established data and methods of the USGS NSHMP, we hope to provide a well-documented source of data which can be used for visualization, planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and research purposes.

Informal Planning in Depopulating Rural Areas : A resource-based view on informal planning practices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Syssner, Josefina; Meijer, M.

2017-01-01

Planning research has increasingly recognised that planning in depopulating areas differs from planning in growth areas. Several studies have sought to identify planning theories and strategies that are capable of meeting the challenges presented by depopulating areas. However, most of these studies

Information basis for developing comprehensive waste management system-US-Japan joint nuclear energy action plan waste management working group phase I report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nutt, M.; Nuclear Engineering Division

2010-05-25

The activity of Phase I of the Waste Management Working Group under the United States - Japan Joint Nuclear Energy Action Plan started in 2007. The US-Japan JNEAP is a bilateral collaborative framework to support the global implementation of safe, secure, and sustainable, nuclear fuel cycles (referred to in this document as fuel cycles). The Waste Management Working Group was established by strong interest of both parties, which arise from the recognition that development and optimization of waste management and disposal system(s) are central issues of the present and future nuclear fuel cycles. This report summarizes the activity of the Waste Management Working Group that focused on consolidation of the existing technical basis between the U.S. and Japan and the joint development of a plan for future collaborative activities. Firstly, the political/regulatory frameworks related to nuclear fuel cycles in both countries were reviewed. The various advanced fuel cycle scenarios that have been considered in both countries were then surveyed and summarized. The working group established the working reference scenario for the future cooperative activity that corresponds to a fuel cycle scenario being considered both in Japan and the U.S. This working scenario involves transitioning from a once-through fuel cycle utilizing light water reactors to a one-pass uranium-plutonium fuel recycle in light water reactors to a combination of light water reactors and fast reactors with plutonium, uranium, and minor actinide recycle, ultimately concluding with multiple recycle passes primarily using fast reactors. Considering the scenario, current and future expected waste streams, treatment and inventory were discussed, and the relevant information was summarized. Second, the waste management/disposal system optimization was discussed. Repository system concepts were reviewed, repository design concepts for the various classifications of nuclear waste were summarized, and the factors

RE-PLAN: An Extensible Software Architecture to Facilitate Disaster Response Planning

Science.gov (United States)

O’Neill, Martin; Mikler, Armin R.; Indrakanti, Saratchandra; Tiwari, Chetan; Jimenez, Tamara

2014-01-01

Computational tools are needed to make data-driven disaster mitigation planning accessible to planners and policymakers without the need for programming or GIS expertise. To address this problem, we have created modules to facilitate quantitative analyses pertinent to a variety of different disaster scenarios. These modules, which comprise the REsponse PLan ANalyzer (RE-PLAN) framework, may be used to create tools for specific disaster scenarios that allow planners to harness large amounts of disparate data and execute computational models through a point-and-click interface. Bio-E, a user-friendly tool built using this framework, was designed to develop and analyze the feasibility of ad hoc clinics for treating populations following a biological emergency event. In this article, the design and implementation of the RE-PLAN framework are described, and the functionality of the modules used in the Bio-E biological emergency mitigation tool are demonstrated. PMID:25419503

75 FR 79030 - Proposed Extension of Existing Information Collection; Training Plans and Records of Training

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-17

... Extension of Existing Information Collection; Training Plans and Records of Training AGENCY: Mine Safety and... extension of the information collection for Training Plans and Records of Training, 30 CFR 48.3, 48.9, 48.23... require training plans for underground and surface mines, respectively. The standards are intended to...

Pattern-based information portal for business plan co-creation

Science.gov (United States)

Bontchev, Boyan; Ruskov, Petko; Tanev, Stoyan

2011-03-01

Creation of business plans helps entrepreneurs in managing identification of business opportunities and committing necessary resources for process evolution. Applying patterns in business plan creation facilitates the identification of effective solutions that were adopted in the past and may provide a basis for adopting similar solutions in the future within given business context. The article presents the system design of an information portal for business plan co-creation based on patterns. The portal is going to provide start-up and entrepreneurs with ready-to-modify business plan patterns in order to help them in development of effective and efficient business plans. It will facilitate entrepreneurs in co-experimenting and co-learning more frequently and faster. Moreover, the paper focuses on the software architecture of the pattern based portal and explains the functionality of its modules, namely the pattern designer, pattern repository services and agent-based pattern implementers. It explains their role for business process co-creation, storing and managing patterns described formally, and selecting patterns best suited for specific business case. Thus, innovative entrepreneurs will be guided by the portal in co-writing winning business plans and staying competitive in the present day dynamic globalized environment.

A Note on Scenarios of Metastable Water

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Jirsák, Jan; Nezbeda, Ivo

2010-01-01

Roč. 75, č. 5 (2010), s. 593-605 ISSN 0010-0765 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400720802; GA AV ČR IAA200760905; GA AV ČR IAA400720710 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40720504 Keywords : metastable water * spinodal * scenarios Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 0.853, year: 2010

A scenario analysis of the future residential requirements for people with mental health problems in Eindhoven.

Science.gov (United States)

Bierbooms, Joyce J P A; Bongers, Inge M B; van Oers, Hans A M

2011-01-06

Despite large-scale investments in mental health care in the community since the 1990 s, a trend towards reinstitutionalization has been visible since 2002. Since many mental health care providers regard this as an undesirable trend, the question arises: In the coming 5 years, what types of residence should be organized for people with mental health problems? The purpose of this article is to provide mental health care providers, public housing corporations, and local government with guidelines for planning organizational strategy concerning types of residence for people with mental health problems. A scenario analysis was performed in four steps: 1) an exploration of the external environment; 2) the identification of key uncertainties; 3) the development of scenarios; 4) the translation of scenarios into guidelines for planning organizational strategy. To explore the external environment a document study was performed, and 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted. During a workshop, a panel of experts identified two key uncertainties in the external environment, and formulated four scenarios. The study resulted in four scenarios: 1) Integrated and independent living in the community with professional care; 2) Responsible healthcare supported by society; 3) Differentiated provision within the walls of the institution; 4) Residence in large-scale institutions but unmet need for care. From the range of aspects within the different scenarios, the panel was able to work out concrete guidelines for planning organizational strategy. In the context of residence for people with mental health problems, the focus should be on investment in community care and their re-integration into society. A joint effort is needed to achieve this goal. This study shows that scenario analysis leads to useful guidelines for planning organizational strategy in mental health care.

Benchmark accident scenarios for nuclear powered warship visits to Australian ports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frikken, A.J.

1996-01-01

Full text: Port safety arrangements for visits of nuclear powered warships (NPWs) to Australian ports require compliance with a number of Conditions of Entry. One of these Conditions of Entry is the provision of 'an operating safety organisation, competent to produce a suitable radiation monitoring program and able to initiate actions and provide services necessary to safeguard the public in the event of a release of radioactivity following an accident'. The States and Territories which receive NPW visits have the responsibility for this contingency planning, although the Commonwealth provides assistance through the Visiting Ships Panel Nuclear (VSP(N)). The visit of a NPW to an Australian port may only proceed if the VSP(N) is satisfied that the port safety plan has been exercised in sufficient depth to demonstrate its adequacy and efficacy. Emergency exercises are held on a regular basis in Australian ports which have been validated for visits by NPWs to ensure compliance with the Conditions of Entry. Important aspects of these exercises are the procedures for estimating radiation doses to members of the public following an accident, and the process for making decisions on the need for countermeasures based on the results of dose estimates. To exercise these aspects of the emergency response, detailed emergency exercise scenarios, including simulated radiological monitoring data, are required. To date, emergency exercises have usually been based on a severe and highly improbable scenario, termed the Reference Accident, which is used to assess the suitability of ports for visits by NPW's. The repeated adoption of this scenario does not adequately test the flexibility of the emergency plans to cope with all possible accidents, particularly more likely, less severe accidents. At the request of the VSP(N), the Nuclear Safety Bureau has analysed a spectrum of NPW accident scenarios and developed a set of Bench Mark Accident (BMA) scenarios for emergency response

Strategic plans for designing information systems under local government

OpenAIRE

Raman Nair, R.

1998-01-01

In decentralized administration local bodies are concerned with various administrative, educational and development issues. So in local government the planning for use of technology have started to recognize the value of information. This study attempts to evolve technical guidelines for building up an information system under local government that has to provide networking services by connecting various offices and institutions like Block Panchayat Office, Village Panchayat Office, District...

Pilot study on virtual imaging for patient information on radiotherapy planning and delivery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sulé-Suso, J.; Finney, S.; Bisson, J.; Hammersley, S.; Jassel, S.; Knight, R.; Hicks, C.; Sargeant, S.; Lam, K.-P.; Belcher, J.; Collins, D.; Bhana, R.; Adab, F.; O'Donovan, C.; Moloney, A.

2015-01-01

It is widely accepted that health professionals might sometimes underestimate cancer patients' needs for information on the complex process of radiotherapy (RT) planning and delivery. Furthermore, relatives might also feel excluded from the treatment of their loved ones. This pilot study was carried out in order to assess whether both patients and their relatives would welcome further information on RT planning and delivery using the virtual reality (VR) system VERT. One hundred and fifty patients with different types of cancer receiving radical RT were included in the study. Patients and relatives were shown using VERT on a one-to-one basis with an oncologist or a radiographer, a standard room where RT is given, a linear accelerator, and how RT is planned and delivered using their own planning CT Scans. Patients welcomed this information as it helped them to reduce their fears about RT. Relatives felt also more involved in the treatment of their loved one. The results obtained in this pilot study show that VR aids could become an important tool for delivering information on RT to both patients and relatives. - Highlights: • Virtual imaging helps patients to better understand RT planning and delivery. • Virtual imaging reduces the fear factor. • Virtual imaging improves patients and relatives satisfaction

Developing a Robust Strategy Map in Balanced Scorecard Model Using Scenario Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mostafa Jafari

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The key to successful strategy implementation in an organization is for people in the organization to understand it, which requires the establishment of complicated but vital processes whereby the intangible assets are converted into tangible outputs. In this regard, a strategy map is a useful tool that helps execute this difficult task. However, such maps are typically developed based on ambiguous cause-effect relationships that result from the extrapolation of past data and flawed links with possible futures. However, if the strategy map is a mere reflection of the status quo but not future conditions and does not embrace real-world uncertainties, it will endanger the organization since it posits that the current situation will continue. In order to compensate for this deficiency, the environmental scenarios affecting an organization were identified in the present study. Then the strategy map was developed in the form of a scenario-based balanced scorecard. Besides, the effect of environmental changes on the components of the strategy map was investigated using the strategy maps illustrated over time together with the corresponding cash flow vectors. Subsequently, a method was proposed to calculate the degree of robustness of every component of the strategy map for the contingency of every scenario. Finally, the results were applied to a post office.

Integrating Future Land Use Scenarios to Evaluate the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Landscape Ecological Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Lu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Urban ecological security is the basic principle of national ecological security. However, analyses of the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security remain limited, especially those that consider different scenarios of urban development. In this study, an integrated method is proposed that combines the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE-S model with the Pressure–State–Response (P-S-R framework to assess landscape ecological security (LES in Huangshan City, China under two scenarios. Our results suggest the following conclusions: (1 the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological security are closely related to the urbanization process; (2 although the average values of landscape ecological security are similar under different scenarios, the areas of relatively high security levels vary considerably; and (3 spatial heterogeneity in ecological security exists between different districts and counties, and the city center and its vicinity may face relatively serious declines in ecological security in the future. Overall, the proposed method not only illustrates the spatio-temporal dynamics of landscape ecological security under different scenarios but also reveals the anthropogenic effects on ecosystems by differentiating between causes, effects, and human responses at the landscape scale. This information is of great significance to decision-makers for future urban planning and management.

Orange County Transit/traffic Management Integration And Traveler Information Project: Evaluation Plan

OpenAIRE

Hall, R.; Hickman, M.

1996-01-01

This document focuses on a Field Operational Test (FOT) to develop an integrated information system for transit and traffic management and for traveler information that relies on Global Positioning System (GPS) equipped buses as probe vehicles. The document provides the evaluation plan for the FOT. The plan covers three principal elements: 1) Institutional, TMC Operator and Bus Operator, 2) Public Knowledge and Perceptions, and 3) System performance. The document provides an overall evaluatio...

Earth science information: Planning for the integration and use of global change information

Science.gov (United States)

Lousma, Jack R.

1992-01-01

Activities and accomplishments of the first six months of the Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN's) 1992 technical program have focused on four main missions: (1) the development and implementation of plans for initiation of the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) as part of the EOSDIS Program; (2) the pursuit and development of a broad-based global change information cooperative by providing systems analysis and integration between natural science and social science data bases held by numerous federal agencies and other sources; (3) the fostering of scientific research into the human dimensions of global change and providing integration between natural science and social science data and information; and (4) the serving of CIESIN as a gateway for global change data and information distribution through development of the Global Change Research Information Office and other comprehensive knowledge sharing systems.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

2004-01-01

.... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

Windows on the future using scenarios to envision the impact of future uncertainties on utility markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This executive report introduces a creative approach to strategy development that begins with scenarios and ends with responsive customer business strategies. Created by EPRI and its research partners, this guided approach uses examples from a workshop in ''Scenario Planning.'' The workshop was sponsored by the Customer Systems Division (CSD) as part of its forward-looking plan to provide programs and services capable of meeting customer needs, shareholder expectations, and societal concerns in a changing world. To illustrate the approach, scenarios from EPRI's Customer 20/20 project are examined using contrasting views of the future structure of the industry -- ''incremental change'' and ''retail competition.'' The three scenarios-entitled Retreating Forward, American Renaissance, and Industrial Ecology -- are driven by plausible outcomes of economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory uncertainties. The benefits of creating scenarios and developing strategic responses are depicted in drawings that portray this innovative approach

Marketing/Planning Library and Information Services. Second Edition.

Science.gov (United States)

Weingand, Darlene E.

In the first edition of this book, the concepts of marketing and planning library and information services were presented as effective managerial strategies. Several paragraphs from the introduction to the first edition are reproduced, with author commentary, in this edition as an affirmation that the message is still true. In this second edition,…

Don't Plan for the Unexpected: Planning Based on Plausibility Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Mikkel Birkegaard; Bolander, Thomas; Jensen, Martin Holm

2015-01-01

is not computationally feasible. Weak epistemic planning is not satisfactory either, as there is no way to qualify which of two weak plans is more likely to lead to the goal. This seriously limits the practical uses of weak planning, as the planning agent might for instance always choose a plan that relies...... that the agent achieves this goal. Conversely, a weak plan promises only the possibility of leading to the goal. In real-life planning scenarios where the planning agent is faced with a high degree of uncertainty and an almost endless number of possible exogenous events, strong epistemic planning...

Implementation Plan for Qualification of Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Technology Information

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moe, Wayne [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Honma, George [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-03-01

This document identifies and discusses implementation elements that can be used to facilitate consistent and systematic evaluation processes relating to quality attributes of technical information (with focus on SFR technology) that will be used to support licensing of advanced reactor designs. Information may include, but is not limited to, design documents for SFRs, research-and-development (R&D) data and associated documents, test plans and associated protocols, operations and test data, international research data, technical reports, and information associated with past U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) reviews of SFR designs. The approach for determining acceptability of test data, analysis, and/or other technical information is based on guidance provided in INL/EXT-15-35805, “Guidance on Evaluating Historic Technology Information for Use in Advanced Reactor Licensing.” The implementation plan can be adopted into a working procedure at each of the national laboratories performing data qualification, or by applicants seeking future license application for advanced reactor technology.

Using Outreach and Engagement Efforts to Inform the Makah Tribe's Climate Adaptation Plan

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, L. K.; Chang, M.; Howk, F.

2017-12-01

The Makah Tribe views climate change as one of the biggest challenges to their natural resource management, threatening their livelihoods, economy, and culture. As part of their work towards climate adaptation planning, the Makah Tribal Council and tribal natural resource managers prioritized early community outreach and engagement efforts in order to accomplish three goals: continually update and inform the tribal community about the Tribe's climate adaptation efforts; gather community input and priorities for the Makah Climate Adaptation Plan; and provide a series of targeted educational events to inform the tribal community about projected climate change impacts to our resources. Our first community climate event, the Makah Climate Change Awareness Dinner, was held on February 8, 2017. At this event, we provided an overview of the Makah Tribe's Climate Vulnerability Assessment and administered an initial climate survey that gathered information regarding community members' observed environmental changes, knowledge about climate change and impacts, and any concerns and priorities to include in the Tribe's adaptation plan. We developed a framework for incorporating community engagement into climate adaptation planning and used results of our community survey to ensure community concerns were being addressed in the plan in addition to risks identified in western science. We also used survey results to inform a series of educational events to address knowledge gaps in the community and requested topics. These are two of next steps that the Makah Tribe is pursuing towards climate adaptation planning.

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2008-07-01

;reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO{sub 2} emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO{sub 2} emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO{sub 2} emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the

Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Babayev

2010-12-01

Full Text Available A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations, and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA, vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence, and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.

Base case and perturbation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmunds, T

1998-10-01

This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

78 FR 38070 - 30-Day Notice of Proposed Information Collection: Affirmative Fair Housing Marketing (AFHM) Plan

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-25

... Information Collection: Affirmative Fair Housing Marketing (AFHM) Plan AGENCY: Office of the Chief Information Officer, HUD. ACTION: Notice. SUMMARY: HUD has submitted the proposed information collection requirement... Title of Information Collection: Affirmative Fair Housing Marketing (AFHM) Plan. OMB Approval Number...

GIS-Based Approach for Municipal Renewable Energy Planning to Support Post-Earthquake Revitalization: A Japanese Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qianna Wang

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Following a regional-level study conducted in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan (Wang et al., 2014 [1], this paper presents an approach for municipal renewable energy planning and its experimental application in a Japanese municipality using a Geographic Information System (GIS. The proposed approach is comprised of local issue identification, renewable energy potential evaluation and visualization, site comparison and scenario analysis. GIS was used to analyze and visualize solar, wind and biomass (forest and agriculture residue potential within Kawamata Town, Fukushima, Japan. According to local conditions, all potential sites were coded and then compared based on different criteria, such as solar radiation, wind speed, slope and land uses, among others. In the scenario analysis section, two scenarios, “renewable energy prioritized” and ”evacuation area prioritized”, were adopted and compared. The scenarios are altered in terms of placement and the number of renewable energy facilities inside and outside evacuation areas within the town. The results generated through the proposed approach can provide information on local potentials of renewable energy resources, as well as renewable energy development alternatives at the municipal level. They can be used in the interactive dialogue for the municipal renewable energy planning process, to help to fulfill the municipality’s post-earthquake energy developmental vision.

HOW DO YOUNG PEOPLE SELECT INFORMATION TO PLAN A TRIP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oana ŢUGULEA

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the research is to reveal the young tourists preferences in the process of planning a trip. Sources of information used, the utility of Internet/travel agencies in planning travel trip activities, preferred means of transportation and types of accommodation are investigated. As research methods, there used both qualitative and quantitative methods: focus group and survey. Internet is more used by young tourists in planning trips than travel agencies are. Internet is considered more useful in the documentation stage and when buying airline tickets. Young tourists are more influenced by friends when planning a trip. Young tourists prefer cars and planes as means of transportation for a trip and hotels and guesthouses as accommodation when traveling.

Hydropower systems planning in distribution networks based on GIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramirez-Rosado, I.J.; Zorzano-Santamaria, P.; Fernandez-Jiminez, L.A.; Garcia-Garrido, E.; Zorzano-Alba, E.; Lara-Santillan, P.M.; Mendoza-Villena, M. [La Rioja Univ., La Rioja (Spain). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

2005-07-01

Planning models for hydraulic energy systems developed with a new computational geographic information system (GIS) tool were presented. The GIS tool was used to identify sections of rivers that are suitable for small-scale run-of-river hydropower generation in the La Rioja region of Spain. The tool was also used to evaluate economic data related to financing grants, technological costs, installation costs, and forecast demands for various consumption scenarios. Case studies of 2 hydropower systems were used to test the tool. The planning models were based on levelized electric costs (LEC) of run-of-river hydropower systems, and enabled the systems to be analyzed in isolation as well as when connected to an existing electricity network. Results of the modelling studies showed that the tool is capable of analyzing the LEC of potential hydropower systems in a range of different scenarios while maintaining the geographic characteristics and requirements of individual regions. 7 refs., 4 figs.

Influence of the demand information quality on planning process accuracy in supply chain. Case studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalia Szozda

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Identification and analysis of factors that affect the accuracy of demand planning process across the supply chain is one of the most important problems which influence the effectiveness of its material and information flows. Material and methods: On the basis of demand planning process investigation authors define the main elements affecting the right supply chain performance level and investigate the possible connections between demand information quality and demand planning process accuracy. Later, an overview of some recent developments in the analyzed research area is provided. Results: Based on the literature review, there is described the defined factors impact on the accuracy of demand plan in each echelon for case companies. There are considered three cases. The examples illustrate supply chains of different manufacturing companies. The focus is placed on demand planning across the supply chains. The issue of determining the accuracy of future sales plans in each echelon of supply chains and factors affecting it are raised. Taking into account the case companies demand planning process analyses, there are defined possible quality measures, that are possible to be used when forecasting the customer demand. Conclusions: One of the most important and difficult planning area in the companies is becoming planning demand. Errors in planning are reflected not just in the business resource planning but also in the entire supply chain. Presented cases show that many factors affect the proper demand planning process in the supply chain, like e.g.  information technologies, lead-time, or number of supplied materials. As it can be seen from the case studies, the model of collecting information from the market plays an important role in the demand planning process.

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

Scenarios for a urban energy transition. Actors, regulations, technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debizet, Gilles; Blanco, Sylvie; Buclet, Nicolas; Forest, Fabrice; Gauthier, Caroline; La Branche, Stephane; Menanteau, Philippe; Schneuwly, Patrice; Tabourdeau, Antoine

2016-01-01

Cities concentrate populations, consumptions, levers of actions, and are places of various experiments for energy transition. This book aims at giving an overview of possible scenarios of development of renewable energies in urban context. It is based on interviews of actors of the energy, building and urban planning sectors by researchers in town planning, management, technology, political and economic sciences. The authors examine what would occur if large companies would manage entire quarters, if local authorities would supervise production and supply, if the State would take control of all fields of action again, or if consumer cooperatives would exchange energy and pool productions. In its different chapters, the book presents four scenarios of energy coordination in urban context by 2040, discuss energy transition in urban spaces, discuss the perspectives of evolution towards more autonomous cities and quarters from an energetic point of view, and discuss business models and urban energetic innovations

Information system for strategic planning the university sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drevs, Yu.G.

2013-01-01

Issues of designing the information system which helps the University principal's office to take decisions as concerns the strategic planning are discussed. The importance of having the University simulation model is emphasized; model representation in terms of system dynamics is given [ru

Economic study of fuel scenarios for a reload

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz S, J. J.; Castillo M, J. A.; Montes T, J. L.; Perusquia del C, R.

2014-10-01

In this work the results to plan different scenarios for designing a nuclear fuel reload are shown. Given a reload with specific energy requirements, the objective is to verify the feasibility of using either a greater number of fresh fuel with less uranium enrichment, or otherwise reduce the number of fresh fuel assemblies and therefore they have a higher average uranium enrichment. For the study a cycle balance 18-month basis with 112 fresh assemblies divided into two lots, with energy produced of 10,075 Mwd/Tu was used. For the designs under the mentioned scenarios, the heuristic techniques known as taboo search and neural networks were used. To verify the feasibility of obtained reloads an economic study of the reload costs was performed. The results showed that is possible to design reloads under the two scenarios, but was more complicated decrease the amount of fresh fuel assemblies. In both scenarios was possible to reduce manufacturing costs of fuel and according to purely static calculation, it would be possible to increase the energy produced. (Author)

Effective strategy making: Co-designing scenarios as a tool for effective strategic planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Vogelij

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Subject of this study For establishing main lines of their future development, governments on several levels of government prepare spatial development visions, for assessing individual plans and initiatives against the background of a desired direction of development. Such strategic visions help to avoid the necessity to start considering again and again the question which direction long-term development should take. The European Commission promotes making such development strategies, hoping this leads to innovation in the regions and increased competitiveness of Europe. More particularly, the Commission expects a substantial contribution to prosperity of the rich diversity of local characteristics as assets for the development and innovation of the European territory. This study aims to explore the factors for success of strategic spatial planning. Strategy making happens in the different circumstances in European countries, legally regulated or informally, using terms like: Structure plans, structural visions, master plans, development visions and spatial development strategies. Here the term (spatial development vision is used. The central question is: Which aspects of planning processes and place-related conditions support the effectiveness of strategy making? The processes of strategy making and the place related circumstances are intensively interrelated. The diversity of circumstances in the European countries is expressed in the different national and regional planning cultures. That includes the set of procedures, competencies, education of planners and other experts and their resulting attitudes towards strategy making. In a development strategy all interests of society come together. Therefore the constructive working together of representatives of different sectors and interest is key to the success. Because of this crucial issue, we distinguished between co-operation, as just contributing to someone else’s activity, co

Semantic Metadata for Heterogeneous Spatial Planning Documents

Science.gov (United States)

Iwaniak, A.; Kaczmarek, I.; Łukowicz, J.; Strzelecki, M.; Coetzee, S.; Paluszyński, W.

2016-09-01

Spatial planning documents contain information about the principles and rights of land use in different zones of a local authority. They are the basis for administrative decision making in support of sustainable development. In Poland these documents are published on the Web according to a prescribed non-extendable XML schema, designed for optimum presentation to humans in HTML web pages. There is no document standard, and limited functionality exists for adding references to external resources. The text in these documents is discoverable and searchable by general-purpose web search engines, but the semantics of the content cannot be discovered or queried. The spatial information in these documents is geographically referenced but not machine-readable. Major manual efforts are required to integrate such heterogeneous spatial planning documents from various local authorities for analysis, scenario planning and decision support. This article presents results of an implementation using machine-readable semantic metadata to identify relationships among regulations in the text, spatial objects in the drawings and links to external resources. A spatial planning ontology was used to annotate different sections of spatial planning documents with semantic metadata in the Resource Description Framework in Attributes (RDFa). The semantic interpretation of the content, links between document elements and links to external resources were embedded in XHTML pages. An example and use case from the spatial planning domain in Poland is presented to evaluate its efficiency and applicability. The solution enables the automated integration of spatial planning documents from multiple local authorities to assist decision makers with understanding and interpreting spatial planning information. The approach is equally applicable to legal documents from other countries and domains, such as cultural heritage and environmental management.

Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

1999-09-01

Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and

DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO 2 emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO 2 emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO 2 emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the Commission's burden sharing proposal) and to 13.7% in 2030, compared with the 10.3% share observed in 2006

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mill, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Seel, Joachim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dong, Changgui [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Ben [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zuboy, Jarrett [Independent Consultant

2016-08-19

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. 1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. 2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. 3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today’s most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV’s monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. 4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. 5) Accounting for DPV’s location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. 6) Estimating DPV’s impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being

Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mills, Andrew D.; Barbose, Galen L.; Seel, Joachim; Dong, Changgui; Mai, Trieu; Sigrin, Ben; Zuboy, Jarett

2016-08-01

The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. (1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. (2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. (3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today's most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV's monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. (4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. (5) Accounting for DPV's location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. (6) Estimating DPV's impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative

FORMING OF FUNCTIONAL MAINTENANCE OF INFORMATIVE SYSTEM PLANNING OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHES IN NAPN OF UKRAINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tetyana V. Kuznetsova

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Relevance of the material stated in article is caused by urgent needs of society in creation of administrative information systems, in particular Information system of planning of scientific researches in National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine on Internet basis (ІС "Planning". Information and technological support of processes of planning of scientific researches which are carried out in scientific institutions of NAPS of Ukraine is the purpose of creation of this system. The parameters of the functional maintenance of the informative system are pointed in the article, technology of treatment of documents on planning of scientific researches, scheme of routes of working of separate documents, and proper diagrams of their business-processes, on the basis of which using programmatic facilities of Microsoft Sharepoint the functions of programming are automatized, is examined.

COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan Valeriu

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

Production Planning and Planting Pattern Scheduling Information System for Horticulture

Science.gov (United States)

Vitadiar, Tanhella Zein; Farikhin; Surarso, Bayu

2018-02-01

This paper present the production of planning and planting pattern scheduling faced by horticulture farmer using two methods. Fuzzy time series method use to predict demand on based on sales amount, while linear programming is used to assist horticulture farmers in making production planning decisions and determining the schedule of cropping patterns in accordance with demand predictions of the fuzzy time series method, variable use in this paper is size of areas, production advantage, amount of seeds and age of the plants. This research result production planning and planting patterns scheduling information system with the output is recommendations planting schedule, harvest schedule and the number of seeds will be plant.

Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

2012-01-01