WorldWideScience

Sample records for scenario generation realm

  1. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  2. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  3. Scenarios of Expansion to Electric Generation Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Somoza-Cabrera

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We show the building scenarios of expansion to electric generation capacity enough to supply the demand to 2050. We were using the LEAP facility (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System, to simulate dispatch of electricity at minimum cost. Finally, we show the cost-benefice analysis of the technologies availability, included externality and CO2 emission limited. However that we included the externals cost in this analysis, it results insufficient to closed gap between fossil and renewable technologies of electric generation. Nevertheless, in some opportunities the renewable options had very important participations in the minimal cost scenario of expansion.

  4. Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auvinen, A.; Jokiniemi, J.K.; Laehde, A.; Routamo, T.; Lundstroem, P.; Tuomisto, H.; Dienstbier, J.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.; Dehbi, A.; Slootman, M.; Herranz, L.; Peyres, V.; Polo, J.

    2005-01-01

    The steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenarios project was carried out in the EU 5th framework programme in the field of nuclear safety during years 2000-2002. The first objective of the project was to generate a comprehensive database on fission product retention in a steam generator. The second objective was to verify and develop predictive models to support accident management interventions in steam generator tube rupture sequences, which either directly lead to severe accident conditions or are induced by other sequences leading to severe accidents. The models developed for fission product retention were to be included in severe accident codes. In addition, it was shown that existing models for turbulent deposition, which is the dominating deposition mechanism in dry conditions and at high flow rates, contain large uncertainties. The results of the project are applicable to various pressurised water reactors, including vertical steam generators (western PWR) and horizontal steam generators (VVER)

  5. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  6. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  7. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand...

  8. Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-Tolerant Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-tolerant Diagnostics (HSG) is an algorithm being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial- intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. By incorporating prognostic capabilities along with advanced diagnostic capabilities, these developments hold promise to increase the safety and affordability of the affected engineering systems by making it possible to obtain timely and accurate information on the statuses of the systems and predicting impending failures well in advance. The HSG is a specific instance of a hypothetical- scenario generator that implements an innovative approach for performing diagnostic reasoning when data are missing. The special purpose served by the HSG is to (1) look for all possible ways in which the present state of the engineering system can be mapped with respect to a given model and (2) generate a prioritized set of future possible states and the scenarios of which they are parts.

  9. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  10. A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morales, J.M.; Conejo, A.J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Univ. Castilla - La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Minguez, R. [Environmental Hydraulics Institute ' ' IH Cantabria' ' , Univ. Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander (Spain)

    2010-03-15

    Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (author)

  11. A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morales, J.M.; Minguez, R.; Conejo, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.

  12. Reactor Emergency Action Level Monitor: Volume 2, REALM user's reference guide: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touchton, R.A.

    1988-09-01

    A User Manual for the Reactor Emergency Action Level Monitor (REALM) expert system prototype is provided in this volume. REALM has been designed to provide expert assistance in the identification of a nuclear power plant emergency situation and the determination of its severity. REALM has been developed as an expert system which can provide sensor interpretation and situation assessment in a real-time processing environment. In its state of development at project completion, these capabilities are used in an off-line (i.e., stand-alone, desktop) fashion to provide emergency preparedness assistance in the areas of emergency classification training and emergency exercise scenario generation. REALM also serves a prototype and stepping-stone for the possible connection to the plant for on-line use. In order to distinguish the off-line system (now complete) from the on-line system (now moving from a research prototype to an installed system), the term ''REALM'' is used to indicate the on-line version, with users in the control room, technical support center, and the emergency operations facility, The off-line version is referred to as ''uREALM.''

  13. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  14. Design and evaluation of a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luo, L.; Yin, H.; Cai, W.; Zhong, J.; Lees, M.

    Generating suitable game scenarios that can cater for individual players has become an emerging challenge in procedural content generation. In this paper, we propose a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training. An evolutionary scenario generation process is designed with a

  15. Investigating conceptions of intentional action by analyzing participant generated scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skulmowski, Alexander; Bunge, Andreas; Cohen, Bret R.; Kreilkamp, Barbara A. K.; Troxler, Nicole

    2015-01-01

    We describe and report on results of employing a new method for analyzing lay conceptions of intentional and unintentional action. Instead of asking people for their conceptual intuitions with regard to construed scenarios, we asked our participants to come up with their own scenarios and to explain why these are examples of intentional or unintentional actions. By way of content analysis, we extracted contexts and components that people associated with these action types. Our participants associated unintentional actions predominantly with bad outcomes for all persons involved and linked intentional actions more strongly to positive outcomes, especially concerning the agent. People’s conceptions of intentional action seem to involve more aspects than commonly assumed in philosophical models of intentional action that solely stress the importance of intentions, desires, and beliefs. The additional aspects include decisions and thoughts about the action. In addition, we found that the criteria that participants generated for unintentional actions are not a mere inversion of those used in explanations for intentional actions. Associations between involuntariness and unintentional action seem to be stronger than associations between aspects of voluntariness and intentional action. PMID:26594182

  16. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  17. Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    , which were normally crossing targets, was to test the efficiency of the track splitting algorithm for different situations. However this approach only gives a measure of performance for a specific, possibly unrealistic, scenario and it was felt appropriate to develop procedures that would enable a more...... general performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is used and a couple of tracking performance parameters are computed to investigate such random scenarios....

  18. Power generation scenarios for Nigeria: An environmental and cost assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gujba, H.; Mulugetta, Y.; Azapagic, A.

    2011-01-01

    Exploratory scenarios for the power sector in Nigeria are analysed in this paper using possible pathways within the Nigerian context and then compared against the Government's power expansion plan in the short to medium term. They include two fossil-fuel (FF and CCGT) and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios (SD1 and SD2). The results from the FF scenarios indicate this is the preferred outcome if the aim is to expand electricity access at the lowest capital costs. However, the annual costs and environmental impacts increase significantly as a consequence. The SD1 scenario, characterised by increased penetration of renewables, leads to a reduction of a wide range of environmental impacts while increasing the annual costs slightly. The SD2 scenario, also with an increased share of renewables, is preferred if the aim is to reduce GHG emissions; however, this comes at an increased annual cost. Both the SD1 and SD2 scenarios also show significant increases in the capital investment compared to the Government's plans. These results can be used to help inform future policy in the Nigerian electricity sector by showing explicitly the range of possible trade-offs between environmental impacts and economic costs both in the short and long terms. - Research Highlights: →The power sector in Nigeria is set to grow significantly in near future. →Power sector scenarios are constructed and studied using LCA and economic analysis methods and then compared against the Government's plans. →These include two fossil-fuel and two sustainable-development-driven scenarios. →The results explicitly show the trade-offs between environmental impacts and costs. →Following the fossil fuel paths will reduce capital costs but increase environmental impacts. The renewable energy paths will reduce some environmental impacts but increase the capital costs.

  19. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

  20. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

    2007-04-15

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

  1. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  2. Stress scenario generation for solvency and risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Marcus Christian; Henriksen, Lars Frederik Brandt; Schomacker, Kristian Juul

    2016-01-01

    We derive worst-case scenarios in a life insurance model in the case where the interest rate and the various transition intensities are mutually dependent. Examples of this dependence are that (a) surrender intensities and interest rates are high at the same time, (b) mortality intensities of a p...

  3. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    Publications. Field, A. (2005). Discovering statistics using SPSS (2nd ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Fisher, S. D., Gettys, C. F...therefore, subsequent F statistics are reported using the Huynh-Feldt correction (Greenhouse-Geisser Epsilon > .775). Experienced and inexperienced...change in hypothesis using experience and initial confidence as predictors. In the Dog Day scenario, the regression was not statistically

  4. Renewable Energy Generation in India: Present Scenario and Future Prospects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Sri Niwas; Singh, Bharat; Østergaard, Jacob

    2009-01-01

    The development of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) is necessary for the sustainable development of any country due to depleting fossil fuel level, climbing fossil fuel prices across the world and more recently pressure for reduction emission level. In India, several schemes and policies are launched...... by the government to support the use of RES to achieve energy security and self-sufficiency. This paper discusses the present scenario and future prospects of RES in India. Various schemes such as financial assistance, tax holiday etc for promoting RESs development and utilization are also discussed. The present...

  5. A Model for Generating Multi-hazard Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Jacomo, A.; Han, D.; Champneys, A.

    2017-12-01

    Communities in mountain areas are often subject to risk from multiple hazards, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Each hazard has its own different rate of onset, duration, and return period. Multiple hazards tend to complicate the combined risk due to their interactions. Prioritising interventions for minimising risk in this context is challenging. We developed a probabilistic multi-hazard model to help inform decision making in multi-hazard areas. The model is applied to a case study region in the Sichuan province in China, using information from satellite imagery and in-situ data. The model is not intended as a predictive model, but rather as a tool which takes stakeholder input and can be used to explore plausible hazard scenarios over time. By using a Monte Carlo framework and varrying uncertain parameters for each of the hazards, the model can be used to explore the effect of different mitigation interventions aimed at reducing the disaster risk within an uncertain hazard context.

  6. Generation of electronic waste in India: Current scenario, dilemmas ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper tries to quantify the amount of E-waste generated in India with the related stakeholder involvement. Electronic waste (E-waste) or waste electrical and electronic equipments (WEEE), which is relatively a recent addition to the hazardous waste stream, is drawing rapid attention across the globe as the quantity ...

  7. A sustainable scenario for Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050 and its costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bautista, Santiago

    2012-01-01

    The present research study used the quantitative approach to analyze the present and future situation of the Venezuelan power generation sector; to achieve that, the total energy generation costs and GHG emissions of four scenarios in 2050 were estimated and compared, considering two demand groups, high and low demand. For each demand scenario, two supply matrix were considered, a generation matrix based on the existing national power generation plans and trends (these scenarios were referred as BAU) and a configuration based on the renewable energy resources available in Venezuela and without the use of either nuclear or CCS technologies, and these scenarios are referred as Sustainable Scenarios (SUS). In the first section, the present situation is presented, followed by an explanation of the applied methodology and the implemented tools. In the third and fourth sections the available recourses and the applied basic assumptions for the four of scenarios are presented and discussed, respectively, followed by the results. In this study it is shown that Venezuela has all the resources it needs to achieve sustainable development in the power generation sector. It is also proved that an energy efficiency improvement is the easiest path to reduce GHG emissions. - Highlights: ► Venezuela has enough energy resources to supply the energy require for its development. ► A sustainable scenario is posible in Venezuelan power generation sector in 2050. ► The sustainable scenario is technically possible without nuclear power or carbon capture storage technologies. ► The impact over the depleatable resources is higher under the BAU assumptions.

  8. A look into the future. Scenarios for distributed generation in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheepers, M.J.J.; Timpe, C.

    2003-12-01

    Based on the analysis of the long-term historical and future technical, socio-economic and institutional dynamics of European electricity supply systems and markets, the SUSTELNET project developed scenarios for future electricity supply systems in EU Member States and Newly Associated States (NAS). These scenarios provide a background for the development of regulatory road maps, which can be used as a tool to map out a regulatory strategy, facilitating the transition of current regulation into a regulatory framework that is required for future sustainable electricity supply systems. This report describes four different scenarios for the future of electricity systems and distributed generation (DG) in Europe in a qualitative manner. Moreover, the methodology used to develop these scenarios is described as well as the impact that disruptive events may have on these scenarios

  9. Using MFM methodology to generate and define major accident scenarios for quantitative risk assessment studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hua, Xinsheng; Wu, Zongzhi; Lind, Morten

    2017-01-01

    to calculate likelihood of each MAS. Combining the likelihood of each scenario with a qualitative risk matrix, each major accident scenario is thereby ranked for consideration for detailed consequence analysis. The methodology is successfully highlighted using part of BMA-process for production of hydrogen......Generating and defining Major Accident Scenarios (MAS) are commonly agreed as the key step for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). The aim of the study is to explore the feasibility of using Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) methodology to formulating MAS. Traditionally this is usually done based...

  10. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinson, P.; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.

  11. Reflection on Migration Scenarios 2G and 3G Mobile Networks to Fourth Generation in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio A. Sepúlveda-Leiva

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In the development of the following article is an analysis of some of the migration scenarios third generation mobile technologies for fourth generation mobile technologies, in order to select which is the most suitable migration scenario for mobile operators Colombia, taking into account the characteristics of the market and the needs that are more optimally suited for the needs of mobile operators in the country, the whole development of the article is based on operators with own infrastructure is not analyzed migration characteristics of mobile virtual network operators.

  12. Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

    2017-01-01

    We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

  13. External costs from electricity generation of China up to 2030 in energy and abatement scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qingyu; Weili, Tian; Yumei, Wei; Yingxu, Chen

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents estimated external costs of electricity generation in China under different scenarios of long-term energy and environmental policies. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) software is used to develop a simple model of electricity demand and to estimate gross electricity generation in China up to 2030 under these scenarios. Because external costs for unit of electricity from fossil fuel will vary in different government regulation periods, airborne pollutant external costs of SO 2 , NO x , PM 10 , and CO 2 from fired power plants are then estimated based on emission inventories and environmental cost for unit of pollutants, while external costs of non-fossil power generation are evaluated with external cost for unit of electricity. The developed model is run to study the impact of different energy efficiency and environmental abatement policy initiatives that would reduce total energy requirement and also reduce external costs of electricity generation. It is shown that external costs of electricity generation may reduce 24-55% with three energy policies scenarios and may further reduce by 20.9-26.7% with two environmental policies scenarios. The total reduction of external costs may reach 58.2%. (author)

  14. Visions, Scenarios and Action Plans Towards Next Generation Tanzania Power System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Kyaruzi

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents strategic visions, scenarios and action plans for enhancing Tanzania Power Systems towards next generation Smart Power Grid. It first introduces the present Tanzanian power grid and the challenges ahead in terms of generation capacity, financial aspect, technical and non-technical losses, revenue loss, high tariff, aging infrastructure, environmental impact and the interconnection with the neighboring countries. Then, the current initiatives undertaken by the Tanzania government in response to the present challenges and the expected roles of smart grid in overcoming these challenges in the future with respect to the scenarios presented are discussed. The developed scenarios along with visions and recommended action plans towards the future Tanzanian power system can be exploited at all governmental levels to achieve public policy goals and help develop business opportunities by motivating domestic and international investments in modernizing the nation’s electric power infrastructure. In return, it should help build the green energy economy.

  15. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from...... their use in decision-making. So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well...... as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools....

  16. Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ......-dominated solutions, demonstrating their trade-offs. Finally, the best compromise solution can be selected depending on the decision maker's requirement....

  17. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

  18. Logs Analysis of Adapted Pedagogical Scenarios Generated by a Simulation Serious Game Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callies, Sophie; Gravel, Mathieu; Beaudry, Eric; Basque, Josianne

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an architecture designed for simulation serious games, which automatically generates game-based scenarios adapted to learner's learning progression. We present three central modules of the architecture: (1) the learner model, (2) the adaptation module and (3) the logs module. The learner model estimates the progression of the…

  19. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

    2018-02-01

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  20. Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

    2017-08-31

    Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

  1. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-01

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO 2 prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a review

  2. Key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in energy technology scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruoss, F.; Turton, H.; Hirschberg, S.

    2009-12-15

    This report presents the findings of a survey of key factors affecting the deployment of electricity generation technologies in selected energy scenarios. The assumptions and results of scenarios, and the different models used in their construction, are compared. Particular attention is given to technology assumptions, such as investment cost or capacity factors, and their impact on technology deployment. We conclude that the deployment of available technologies, i.e. their market shares, can only be explained from a holistic perspective, and that there are strong interactions between driving forces and competing technology options within a certain scenario. Already the design of a scenario analysis has important impacts on the deployment of technologies: the choice of the set of available technologies, the modeling approach and the definition of the storylines determine the outcome. Furthermore, the quantification of these storylines into input parameters and cost assumptions drives technology deployment, even though differences across the scenarios in cost assumptions are not observed to account for many of the observed differences in electricity technology deployment. The deployment can only be understood after a consideration of the interplay of technology options and the scale of technology deployment, which is determined by economic growth, end-use efficiency, and electrification. Some input parameters are of particular importance for certain technologies: CO{sub 2} prices, fuel prices and the availability of carbon capture and storage appear to be crucial for the deployment of fossil-fueled power plants; maximum construction rates and safety concerns determine the market share of nuclear power; the availability of suitable sites represents the most important factor for electricity generation from hydro and wind power plants; and technology breakthroughs are needed for solar photovoltaics to become cost-competitive. Finally, this analysis concludes with a

  3. Framing scenarios of electricity generation and gas use: EPRI report series on gas demands for power generation. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thumb, S.; Glover, W.; Hughes, W.R.

    1996-07-01

    Results of three EPRI projects have been combined to analyze power industry consumption of gas and other generating fuels. The report's capstone is a scenario analysis of power industry generation and fuel consumption. The Utility Fuel Consumption Model (UFCM), developed for the project, predicts generating capacity and generation by region and fuel through 2015, based on load duration curves, generation dispatch, and expected capacity additions. Scenarios embody uncertain factors, such as electricity demand growth, fuel switching, coal-gas competition, the merit order of gas-coal dispatch, and retirement of nuclear units, that substantially affect gas consumption. Some factors, especially electricity demand have very large effects. The report includes a consistent database on NUG (non-utility generation) capacity and generation and assesses historical and prospective trends in NUG generation. The report shows that NUG capacity growth will soon decline substantially. The study assesses industry capability for price-induced fuel switching from gas to oil and coal, documenting conversions of coal units to dual coal-gas capability and determining that gas-to-oil switching remains a strong influence on fuel availability and gas prices, though regulation and taxation have increased trigger prices for switching. 61 tabs

  4. A novel method for energy harvesting simulation based on scenario generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhe; Li, Taoshen; Xiao, Nan; Ye, Jin; Wu, Min

    2018-06-01

    Energy harvesting network (EHN) is a new form of computer networks. It converts ambient energy into usable electric energy and supply the electrical energy as a primary or secondary power source to the communication devices. However, most of the EHN uses the analytical probability distribution function to describe the energy harvesting process, which cannot accurately identify the actual situation for the lack of authenticity. We propose an EHN simulation method based on scenario generation in this paper. Firstly, instead of setting a probability distribution in advance, it uses optimal scenario reduction technology to generate representative scenarios in single period based on the historical data of the harvested energy. Secondly, it uses homogeneous simulated annealing algorithm to generate optimal daily energy harvesting scenario sequences to get a more accurate simulation of the random characteristics of the energy harvesting network. Then taking the actual wind power data as an example, the accuracy and stability of the method are verified by comparing with the real data. Finally, we cite an instance to optimize the network throughput, which indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method we proposed from the optimal solution and data analysis in energy harvesting simulation.

  5. Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2007-01-01

    Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform...... on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind...

  6. The origin of the first and third generation fermion masses in a technicolor scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doff, A.; Natale, A.A.

    2004-01-01

    We argue that the masses of the first and third fermionic generations, which are respectively of the order of a few MeV up to a hundred GeV, originate from a dynamical symmetry breaking mechanism leading to masses of the order αμ, where α is a small coupling constant, and μ, in the case of the first fermionic generation, is the scale of the dynamical quark mass (∼250 MeV). For the third fermion generation μ is the value of the dynamical techniquark mass (∼250 GeV). We discuss how this possibility can be implemented in a technicolor scenario, and how the mass of the intermediate generation is generated. (orig.)

  7. Generation of large-scale PV scenarios using aggregated power curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuño Martinez, Edgar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    The contribution of solar photovoltaic (PV) power to the generation is becoming more relevant in modern power system. Therefore, there is a need to model the variability large-scale PV generation accurately. This paper presents a novel methodology to generate regional PV scenarios based...... on aggregated power curves rather than traditional physical PV conversion models. Our approach is based on hourly mesoscale reanalysis irradiation data and power measurements and do not require additional variables such as ambient temperature or wind speed. It was used to simulate the PV generation...... on the German system between 2012 and 2015 showing high levels of correlation with actual measurements (93.02–97.60%) and small deviations from the expected capacity factors (0.02–1.80%). Therefore, we are confident about the ability of the proposed model to accurately generate realistic large-scale PV...

  8. Calibration and validation of a phenomenological influent pollutant disturbance scenario generator using full-scale data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores Alsina, Xavier; Saagi, Ramesh; Lindblom, Erik Ulfson

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the full-scale feasibility of the phenomenological dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenario generator (DIPDSG) that was originally used to create the influent data of the International Water Association (IWA) Benchmark Simulation Model No. 2 (BSM...... rainfall patterns (climate change) or influent biodegradability (process uncertainty) on the generated time series; 2) a demonstration of how to reduce the cost/workload of measuring campaigns by filling the gaps due to missing data in the influent profiles; and, 3) a critical discussion of the presented...

  9. The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG: a distributed environmental data archive analysis tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E A Kihn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG is a network distributed software system designed to allow a user to interact with archives of environmental data for the purpose of scenario extraction, data analysis and integration with existing models that require environmental input. The ESG uses fuzzy-logic based search tools to allow a user to look for specific environmental scenarios in vast archives by specifying the search in human linguistic terms. For example, the user can specify a scenario such as a "cloud free week" or "high winds and low pressure" and then search relevant archives available across the network to get a list of matching events. The ESG hooks to existing archives of data by providing a simple communication framework and an efficient data model for exchanging data. Once data has been delivered by the distributed archives in the ESG data model, it can easily be accessed by the visualization, integration and analysis components to meet specific user requests. The ESG implementation provides a framework which can be taken as a pattern applicable to other distributed archive systems.

  10. Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

  11. Municipal Solid Waste to Energy Generation in Bangladesh: Possible Scenarios to Generate Renewable Electricity in Dhaka and Chittagong City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Nazmul Islam

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Increased generation of methane (CH4 from municipal solid wastes (MSW alarms the world to take proper initiative for the sustainable management of MSW, because it is 34 times stronger than carbon dioxide (CO2. Mounting land scarcity issue around the world brands the waste to energy (WtE strategy for MSW management in urban areas as a promising option, because WtE not only reduces the land pressure problem, but also generates electricity, heat, and green jobs. The goal of this study is to evaluate the renewable electricity generation potential and associated carbon reduction of MSW management in Bangladesh using WtE strategies. The study is conducted in two major cities of Bangladesh: Dhaka and Chittagong. Six different WtE scenarios are evaluated consisting of mixed MSW incineration and landfill gas (LFG recovery system. Energy potential of different WtE strategy is assessed using standard energy conversion model and subsequent GHGs emissions models. Scenario A1 results in highest economic and energy potential and net negative GHGs emission. Sensitivity analysis by varying MSW moisture content reveals higher energy potential and less GHGs emissions from MSW possessing low moisture content. The study proposes mixed MSW incineration that could be a potential WtE strategy for renewable electricity generation in Bangladesh.

  12. Emissions implications of downscaled electricity generation scenarios for the western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nsanzineza, Rene; O’Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory; Milford, Jana B.

    2017-10-01

    This study explores how emissions from electricity generation in the Western Interconnection region of the U.S. might respond in circa 2030 to contrasting scenarios for fuel prices and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions fees. We examine spatial and temporal variations in generation mix across the region and year using the PLEXOS unit commitment and dispatch model with a production cost model database adapted from the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. Emissions estimates are computed by combining the dispatch model results with unit-specific, emissions-load relationships. Wind energy displaces natural gas and coal in scenarios with relatively expensive natural gas or with GHG fees. Correspondingly, annual emissions of NOx, SO2, and CO2 are reduced by 20-40% in these cases. NOx emissions, which are a concern as a precursor of ground-level ozone, are relatively high and consistent across scenarios during summer, when peak electricity loads occur and wind resources in the region are comparatively weak. Accounting for the difference in start-up versus stabilized NOx emissions rates for natural gas plants had little impact on region-wide emissions estimates due to the dominant contribution from coal-fired plants, but would be more important in the vicinity of the natural gas units.

  13. The once-through mode of steam generator reflux condensation in loss of coolant accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Y.; Guentay, S.; Suckow, D.

    2009-01-01

    The once-through mode of steam generator reflux condensation in the presence of noncondensable gases and/or aerosols for LOCA scenarios is introduced. This phenomenon is planned to be investigated at Paul Scherrer Institute in the ARTIST/RFLX experimental program. The plausible accident scenarios associated with the once-through reflux condensation are analyzed with MELCOR to study the safety significance and the boundary conditions of this phenomenon. This work presents the recent PSI experimental and analytical work on reflux condensation: the progress of modification to the ARTIST test facility for the purpose to study reflux condensation, and the analytical model for the once-through reflux condensation in the presence of noncondensable gas using the heat and mass transfer analogy approach. Future experimental and analytical work on reflux condensation is also outlined. (author)

  14. Scenarios for the hierarchical evaluation of the global sustainability of electric generator plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roldan A, M.C.; Martinez F, M.

    2007-01-01

    The AHP multi criteria method was applied (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Analytic process of Hierarchization) to evaluate the sustainability in the whole life cycle of the electricity generation technologies (hydroelectric, carboelectric, thermoelectric natural fuel oil, natural gas thermoelectric, geothermal, nucleo electric, wind electric, photo thermic and photovoltaic) with the purpose of offering an useful method in the taking of decisions to impel the sustainable development. Eight scenarios are analyzed. The results in most of the scenarios reflect the benefit of the renewable energy: the hydroelectric energy, photo thermic and wind driven its are those more sustainable. To reach the sustainable development in Mexico, the energy politicians should be more near to the use of the renewable energy. (Author)

  15. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  16. Radioactive waste assessment using 'moderate growth in nuclear electricity generation' scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.

    1985-05-01

    This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation scenario -Scheme 3. Scheme 3 assumes a moderate growth in nuclear generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups: (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants; (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment, and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)

  17. Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

    2014-12-01

    The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

  18. Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Heppelmann, Tobias; Theis, Susanne E.

    2016-01-01

    the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new...... approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product...

  19. Automatic generation control of TCPS based hydrothermal system under open market scenario: A fuzzy logic approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, C. Srinivasa [EEE Department, G. Pulla Reddy Engineering College, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh (India); Nagaraju, S. Siva [EEE Department, J.N.T.U College of Engg., Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh (India); Raju, P. Sangameswara [EEE Department, S.V. University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh (India)

    2009-09-15

    This paper presents the analysis of automatic generation control of a two-area interconnected thyristor controlled phase shifter based hydrothermal system in the continuous mode using fuzzy logic controller under open market scenario. Open transmission access and the evolving of more socialized companies for generation, transmission and distribution affects the formulation of AGC problem. So the traditional AGC two-area system is modified to take into account the effect of bilateral contracts on the dynamics. It is possible to stabilize the system frequency and tie-power oscillations by controlling the phase angle of TCPS which is expected to provide a new ancillary service for the future power systems. A control strategy using TCPS is proposed to provide active control of system frequency. Further dynamic responses for small perturbation considering fuzzy logic controller and PI controller (dual mode controller) have been observed and the superior performance of fuzzy logic controller has been reported analytically and also through simulation. (author)

  20. Selecting Days for Concept and Technology Evaluation in SMART-NAS Test-Bed Scenario Generation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...

  1. Space-time scenarios of wind power generation produced using a Gaussian copula with parametrized precision matrix

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tastu, Julija; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    The emphasis in this work is placed on generating space-time trajectories (also referred to as scenarios) of wind power generation. This calls for prediction of multivariate densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. ...

  2. Tsunami Generation and Propagation by 3D deformable Landslides and Application to Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, Brian C.; Fritz, Hermann M.

    2014-05-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse account for some of the most catastrophic natural disasters recorded and can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. The bathymetric and topographic scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1

  3. Dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenario generation using a phenomenological modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Rosen, Christian

    2011-01-01

    : the larger the simulated sewer network, the smoother the simulated diurnal flow rate and concentration variations. In the discussion, it is pointed out how the proposed phenomenological models can be expanded to other applications, for example to represent heavy metal or organic micro-pollutant loads......Activated Sludge Models are widely used for simulation-based evaluation of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) performance. However, due to the high workload and cost of a measuring campaign on a full-scale WWTP, many simulation studies suffer from lack of sufficiently long influent flow rate...... and concentration time series representing realistic wastewater influent dynamics. In this paper, a simple phenomenological modelling approach is proposed as an alternative to generate dynamic influent pollutant disturbance scenarios. The presented set of models is constructed following the principles of parsimony...

  4. Scenario generation for electric vehicles' uncertain behavior in a smart city environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soares, João; Borges, Nuno; Fotouhi Ghazvini, Mohammad Ali; Vale, Zita; Moura Oliveira, P.B. de

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a framework and methods to estimate electric vehicles' possible states, regarding their demand, location and grid connection periods. The proposed methods use the Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the probability of occurrence for each state and a fuzzy logic probabilistic approach to characterize the uncertainty of electric vehicles' demand. Day-ahead and hour-ahead methodologies are proposed to support the smart grids' operational decisions. A numerical example is presented using an electric vehicles fleet in a smart city environment to obtain each electric vehicle possible states regarding their grid location. - Highlights: • New concept/framework in smart cities context to estimate the states of electric vehicles and energy demand. • Monte Carlo Simulation and fuzzy logic probabilistic approach to support the envisaged concept. • A day-ahead and an hour-ahead stochastic scenarios generation to support the smart grid's operational decisions.

  5. A self-consistent turbulence generated scenario for L-H transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Y.Z.; Mahajan, S.M.

    1992-10-01

    The turbulence-induced ion banana polarization current associated with steep ion temperature gradients is explored as a possible mechanism for generating poloidal momentum at the tokamak edge. In the light of a recently developed two-dimensional turbulence theory, one can obtain a simple closed expression relating this current (determined by turbulence levels) to the derivatives of the poloidal rotation speed. A self-consistent system, then, emerges, if we balance the turbulence-induced poloidal momentum with that dissipated by viscosity. Under suitable conditions this system may show a bifurcation controlled by a parameter dependent on temperature gradients. Both the bifurcation point, and the shear layer width are predicted for a prescribed flow in terms of a scale characterizing the nonlinearity of viscosity. The crucial relevance of the flow parity with the turbulence scenario is analyzed

  6. Radioactive waste assessment using 'minimum waste generation' scenario - summary report March 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, J.A.; Goodill, D.R.; Tymons, B.J.

    1984-11-01

    This report describes an assessment of radioactive waste management arisings from a defined nuclear power generation - Scheme 1. Scheme 1 assumes a minimum waste generation scenario with raw waste arisings from 3 main groups; (i) existing and committed commercial reactors; (ii) fuel reprocessing plants, (iii) research, industry and medicine. No decommissioning wastes are considered except for arisings from the final fuel cores from decommissioned reactors. The study uses the SIMULATION2 code which models waste material flows through the system. With a knowledge of the accumulations and average production rates of the raw wastes and their isotopic compositions (or total activities), the rates at which conditioned wastes become available for transportation and disposal are calculated, with specific activity levels. The data bases for the inventory calculations and the assumptions concerning future operation of nuclear facilities were those current in 1983. Both the inventory data and plans for the future of existing nuclear installations have been updated since these calculations were completed. Therefore the results from this assessment do not represent the most up-to-date information available. The report does, however, illustrate the methodology of assessment and indicates the type of information that can be generated. (author)

  7. Energy assessment of second generation (2G) ethanol production from wheat straw in Indian scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Archana; Kumar, Akash; Ghosh, Sanjoy

    2018-03-01

    Impact of second-generation ethanol (2G) use in transportation sector mainly depends upon energy efficiency of entire production process. The objective of present study was to determine energy efficiency of a potential lignocellulosic feedstock; wheat straw and its conversion into cellulosic ethanol in Indian scenario. Energy efficiency was determined by calculating Net energy ratio (NER), i.e. ratio of output energy obtained by ethanol and input energy used in ethanol production. Energy consumption and generation at each step is calculated briefly (11,837.35 MJ/ha during Indian dwarf irrigated variety of wheat crop production and 7.1148 MJ/kg straw during ethanol production stage). Total energy consumption is calculated as 8.2988 MJ/kg straw whereas energy generation from ethanol is 15.082 MJ/kg straw; resulting into NER > 1. Major portion of agricultural energy input is contributed by diesel and fertilisers whereas refining process of wheat straw feedstock to ethanol and by-products require mainly in the form of steam and electricity. On an average, 1671.8 kg water free ethanol, 930 kg lignin rich biomass (for combustion), and 561 kg C5-molasses (for fodder) per hectare are produced. Findings of this study, net energy ratio (1.81) and figure of merit (14.8028 MJ/nil kg carbon) proves wheat straw as highest energy efficient lignocellulosic feedstock for the country.

  8. Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazmi, Dildar Hussain; Li, Jianping; Rasul, Ghulam; Tong, Jiang; Ali, Gohar; Cheema, Sohail Babar; Liu, Luliu; Gemmer, Marco; Fischer, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Finer climate change information on spatial scale is required for impact studies than that presently provided by global or regional climate models. It is especially true for regions like South Asia with complex topography, coastal or island locations, and the areas of highly heterogeneous land-cover. To deal with the situation, an inexpensive method (statistical downscaling) has been adopted. Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) employed for downscaling of daily minimum and maximum temperature data of 44 national stations for base time (1961-1990) and then the future scenarios generated up to 2099. Observed as well as Predictors (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) data were calibrated and tested on individual/multiple basis through linear regression. Future scenario was generated based on HadCM3 daily data for A2 and B2 story lines. The downscaled data has been tested, and it has shown a relatively strong relationship with the observed in comparison to ECHAM5 data. Generally, the southern half of the country is considered vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures, but the results of this study projects that in future, the northern belt in particular would have a possible threat of increasing tendency in air temperature. Especially, the northern areas (hosting the third largest ice reserves after the Polar Regions), an important feeding source for Indus River, are projected to be vulnerable in terms of increasing temperatures. Consequently, not only the hydro-agricultural sector but also the environmental conditions in the area may be at risk, in future.

  9. Escape from Freedom: Towards the Political Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Katrina

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the author contends that the ability to create a political realm is dependent upon one's state of freedom. She questions what it means to be free and whether assumptions of the definitions of this concept are always good or beneficial. After discussing some of the known theories about freedom, she states that schools are some…

  10. Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.

    2008-01-01

    A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are

  11. Appendix 2. Guide for Running AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation Tools with R in Windows, Version 2.3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Nicholas; Ruane, Alexander Clark

    2013-01-01

    This Guide explains how to create climate series and climate change scenarios by using the AgMip Climate team's methodology as outlined in the AgMIP Guide for Regional Assessment: Handbook of Methods and Procedures. It details how to: install R and the required packages to run the AgMIP Climate Scenario Generation scripts, and create climate scenarios from CMIP5 GCMs using a 30-year baseline daily weather dataset. The Guide also outlines a workflow that can be modified for application to your own climate data.

  12. Wind power scenario generation through state-space specifications for uncertainty analysis of wind power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Díaz, Guzmán; Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier; Coto, José

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • State space representations for simulating wind power plant output are proposed. • The representation of wind speed in state space allows structural analysis. • The joint model incorporates the temporal and spatial dependence structure. • The models are easily integrable into a backward/forward sweep algorithm. • Results evidence the remarkable differences between joint and marginal models. - Abstract: This paper proposes the use of state space models to generate scenarios for the analysis of wind power plant (WPP) generation capabilities. The proposal is rooted on the advantages that state space models present for dealing with stochastic processes; mainly their structural definition and the use of Kalman filter to naturally tackle some involved operations. The specification proposed in this paper comprises a structured representation of individual Box–Jenkins models, with indications about further improvements that can be easily performed. These marginal models are combined to form a joint model in which the dependence structure is easily handled. Indications about the procedure to calibrate and check the model, as well as a validation of its statistical appropriateness, are provided. Application of the proposed state space models provides insight on the need to properly specify the structural dependence between wind speeds. In this paper the joint and marginal models are smoothly integrated into a backward–forward sweep algorithm to determine the performance indicators (voltages and powers) of a WPP through simulation. As a result, visibly heavy tails emerge in the generated power probability distribution through the use of the joint model—incorporating a detailed description of the dependence structure—in contrast with the normally distributed power yielded by the margin-based model.

  13. User's guide for MAGIC-Meteorologic and hydrologic genscn (generate scenarios) input converter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortel, Terry W.; Martin, Angel

    2010-01-01

    Meteorologic and hydrologic data used in watershed modeling studies are collected by various agencies and organizations, and stored in various formats. Data may be in a raw, un-processed format with little or no quality control, or may be checked for validity before being made available. Flood-simulation systems require data in near real-time so that adequate flood warnings can be made. Additionally, forecasted data are needed to operate flood-control structures to potentially mitigate flood damages. Because real-time data are of a provisional nature, missing data may need to be estimated for use in floodsimulation systems. The Meteorologic and Hydrologic GenScn (Generate Scenarios) Input Converter (MAGIC) can be used to convert data from selected formats into the Hydrologic Simulation System-Fortran hourly-observations format for input to a Watershed Data Management database, for use in hydrologic modeling studies. MAGIC also can reformat the data to the Full Equations model time-series format, for use in hydraulic modeling studies. Examples of the application of MAGIC for use in the flood-simulation system for Salt Creek in northeastern Illinois are presented in this report.

  14. Simulating forensic casework scenarios in experimental studies: The generation of footwear marks in blood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McElhone, Rachel L; Meakin, Georgina E; French, James C; Alexander, Tracy; Morgan, Ruth M

    2016-07-01

    A study was designed to investigate the effects of external variables, including blood type, flooring surface, footwear tread depth and blood dryness, on the appearance of blood-based footwear marks, with particular reference to simulating a specific casework scenario. Results showed that footwear marks left in human blood tended to be of greater quality than those in equine blood, highlighting a potential issue in applying data generated with equine blood to human bloodstains in casework. Footwear tread effects were also dependent on blood type, but the type of flooring surface did not affect the appearance of the mark. Under some conditions, as the blood dried, the amount of detail retained from footwear contact decreased. These results provide the beginnings of an empirical evidence base to allow a more accurate interpretation of blood-based footwear marks in forensic casework. When applied to a disputed bloodstain in a specific case, these results also demonstrate the importance of such experiments in narrowing the range of explanations possible in the interpretation of forensic evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Hydroelectric power generation in an Alpine basin: future water-energy scenarios in a run-of-the-river plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongio, Marco; Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate scenarios of hydroelectric power generation for an Alpine run-of-the-river plant in 2050. To this end, we include a conversion from streamflow to energy in a hydrological model of the basin, and we introduce a set of benchmark climate scenarios to evaluate expected future production. These are a "future-like-present" scenario assuming future precipitation and temperature inputs to be statistically equivalent to those observed during the recent past at the same location, a "warmer-future" scenario, which considers an additional increase in temperature, and a "liquid-only" scenario where only liquid precipitation is admitted. In addition, two IPCC-like climatic scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are considered. Uncertainty in glaciers' volume is accounted by initializing the hydrological model with two different inventories of glaciers. Ensemble results reveal that 1) an average decrease between -40% and -19% of hydroelectric power generation in 2050 is predicted at the plant considered (with respect to present condition); 2) an average decrease between -20% and -38% of cumulative incoming streamflow volume at the plant is also predicted, again with respect to present condition; 3) these effects are associated with a strong average decrease of the volume of glaciers (between -76% and -96%, depending on the initial value considered). However, Monte Carlo simulations show that results are also prone to high uncertainties. Implications of these results for run-of-the-river plants are discussed.

  16. Simulated Performance Evaluation of a Selective Tracker Through Random Scenario Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the proposed selective track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is investigated through a number of performance parameters which gives the activity profile of the tracking scenario......  The paper presents a simulation study on the performance of a target tracker using selective track splitting filter algorithm through a random scenario implemented on a digital signal processor.  In a typical track splitting filter all the observation which fall inside a likelihood ellipse...... are used for update, however, in our proposed selective track splitting filter less number of observations are used for track update.  Much of the previous performance work [1] has been done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios, which were...

  17. Is there a water–energy nexus in electricity generation? Long-term scenarios for the western United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerman, Frank; Fisher, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Water is required for energy supply, and energy is required for water supply, creating problems as demand for both resources grows. We analyze this “water–energy nexus” as it affects long-run electricity planning in the western United States. We develop four scenarios assuming: no new constraints; limits on carbon emissions; limits on water use; and combined carbon and water limits. We evaluate these scenarios through 2100 under a range of carbon and water prices. The carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of about $50–$70 per ton of CO 2 , moderately high but plausible within the century. In contrast, the water-conserving scenarios are not cost-effective until water prices reach thousands of dollars per acre-foot, well beyond foreseeable levels. This is due in part to the modest available water savings: our most and least water-intensive scenarios differ by less than 1% of the region's water consumption. Under our assumptions, Western electricity generation could be reshaped by the cost of carbon emissions, but not by the cost of water, over the course of this century. Both climate change and water scarcity are of critical importance, but only in the former is electricity generation central to the problem and its solutions. - Highlights: • We model long-run electricity supply and demand for the western United States. • We evaluate the costs of carbon-reducing and water-conserving scenarios. • Carbon-reducing scenarios become cost-effective at carbon prices of $50–70 per ton CO 2 . • Water-conserving scenarios are only cost-effective above $4000/acre-foot of water. • Electricity planning is central to climate policy, but much less so to water planning

  18. Report to the NRC on guidance for preparing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear generating stations. Draft report for comment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, G.F.; Hickey, E.E.; Moeller, M.P.; Schultz, D.H.; Bethke, G.W.

    1986-03-01

    A scenario guidance handbook was prepared to assist emergency planners in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises at nuclear power plants. The handbook provides guidance for the development of the objectives of an exercise, the descriptions of scenario events and responses, and the instructions to the participants. Information concerning implementation of the scenario, critiques and findings, and generation and format of scenario data are also included. Finally, examples of manual calculational techniques for producing radiological data are included as an appendix

  19. Space-time scenarios of wind power generation produced using a Gaussian copula with parametrized precision matrix

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tastu, J.; Pinson, P.; Madsen, Henrik

    2013-09-01

    The emphasis in this work is placed on generating space-time trajectories (also referred to as scenarios) of wind power generation. This calls for prediction of multivariate densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. A modelling approach taking advantage of sparsity of precision matrices is introduced for the description of the underlying space-time dependence structure. The proposed parametrization of the dependence structure accounts for such important process characteristics as non-constant conditional precisions and direction-dependent cross-correlations. Accounting for the space-time effects is shown to be crucial for generating high quality scenarios. (Author)

  20. Unlabored system motion by specially conditioned electromagnetic fields in higher dimensional realms

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Froning, H.; Meholic, Gregory V.

    2010-01-01

    This third of three papers explores the possibility of swift, stress-less system transitions between slower-than-light and faster-than-light speeds with negligible net expenditure of system energetics. The previous papers derived a realm of higher dimensionality than 4-D spacetime that enabled such unlabored motion; and showed that fields that could propel and guide systems on unlabored paths in the higher dimensional realm must be fields that have been conditioned to SU(2) (or higher) Lie group symmetry. This paper shows that the system's surrounding vacuum dielectric ɛμ, within the higher dimensional realm's is a vector (not scalar) quantity with fixed magnitude ɛ0μ0 and changing direction within the realm with changing system speed. Thus, ɛμ generated by the system's EM field must remain tuned to vacuum ɛ0μ0 in both magnitude and direction during swift, unlabored system transitions between slower and faster than light speeds. As a result, the system's changing path and speed is such that the magnitude of the higher dimensional realm's ɛ0μ0 is not disturbed. And it is shown that a system's flight trajectories associated with its swift, unlabored transitions between zero and infinite speed can be represented by curved paths traced-out within the higher dimensional realm.

  1. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  2. Bootstrapping the economy -- a non-parametric method of generating consistent future scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, Ulrich A; Bürgi, Roland; Dacorogna, Michel M

    2004-01-01

    The fortune and the risk of a business venture depends on the future course of the economy. There is a strong demand for economic forecasts and scenarios that can be applied to planning and modeling. While there is an ongoing debate on modeling economic scenarios, the bootstrapping (or resampling) approach presented here has several advantages. As a non-parametric method, it directly relies on past market behaviors rather than debatable assumptions on models and parameters. Simultaneous dep...

  3. SICILIAN JURASSIC PHYSIOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGIC REALMS (ITALY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BENEDETTO ABATE

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Two tectono-sedimentary domains, which were deformed during the Neogene and evolved into two large structural sectors, characterize the Sicilian Jurassic: the Maghrebides and Peloritani. Africa margin sediments, passing downward to Triassic successions and perhaps originally to Paleozoic deposits, characterize the former. The latter belongs to the European "Calabrian Arc", where the Jurassic transgressively rests on a continental substrate (i.e. the crystalline Variscan basement. These domains are characterized by four sedimentary facies: shallow platform-derived limestones; condensed seamount-type red limestones; nodular limestones with ammonites; deep radiolarites and shales. These facies are illustrated in a dozen of stratigraphic logs. The drowning of most Triassic-Liassic carbonate platforms or ramps and the deepening of adjacent basins came with inferred Jurassic strike-slip tectonics, connected to the relative movement of Africa (Gondwanan part vs Europe (Laurasian part; the same strike-slip tectonics may have caused scattered intraplate volcanic seamounts found in Maghrebides. During the Jurassic the Maghrebide realm was characterized by the interfingering of basins and carbonate platforms. During the Early and Middle Liassic, carbonate platforms and ramps were dominant. Since Toarcian either radiolarites in some basins or Ammonite-bearing calcareous muds developed with intervening basaltic flows, and were accompanied by condensed pelagic carbonates on the ensialic seamount-type highs. The Peloritani realm displays similar characteristics, but with later transgression on the basement, several strike-slip basins and without any volcanoes.

  4. Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baležentis, Tomas; Streimikiene, Dalia

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Two advanced optimization models were applied for EU energy policy scenarios development. • Several advanced MCDA were applied for energy policy scenarios ranking: WASPAS, ARAS, TOPSIS. • A Monte Carlo simulation was applied for sensitivity analysis of scenarios ranking. • New policy insights in terms of energy scenarios forecasting were provided based on research conducted. - Abstract: Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are omnipresent in energy policy analysis. Even though IAMs can successfully handle uncertainty pertinent to energy planning problems, they render multiple variables as outputs of the modelling. Therefore, policy makers are faced with multiple energy development scenarios and goals. Specifically, technical, environmental, and economic aspects are represented by multiple criteria, which, in turn, are related to conflicting objectives. Preferences of decision makers need to be taken into account in order to facilitate effective energy planning. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are relevant in aggregating diverse information and thus comparing alternative energy planning options. The paper aims at ranking European Union (EU) energy development scenarios based on several IAMs with respect to multiple criteria. By doing so, we account for uncertainty surrounding policy priorities outside the IAM. In order to follow a sustainable approach, the ranking of policy options is based on EU energy policy priorities: energy efficiency improvements, increased use of renewables, reduction in and low mitigations costs of GHG emission. The ranking of scenarios is based on the estimates rendered by the two advanced IAMs relying on different approaches, namely TIAM and WITCH. The data are fed into the three MCDM techniques: the method of weighted aggregated sum/product assessment (WASPAS), the Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS) method, and technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS). As MCDM techniques allow

  5. Logistics Reduction: RFID Enabled Autonomous Logistics Management (REALM)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Logistics Reduction (LR) project Radio-frequency identification (RFID) Enabled Autonomous Logistics Management (REALM) task...

  6. Consequences of a double-ended severance of a steam generator tube and accidental development scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnov, M.V.; Titov, V.F.; Poplavskii, V.M.; Baklushin, R.P.

    1988-01-01

    The results of theoretical analysis for accidental sequences in a modular steam generator are presented. The most probable water leak development in sodium in case of steam generator emergency stop faults is examined. In all schemes the reactor safety is preserved [fr

  7. Analysis of a Spanish energy scenario with Generation IV nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa, Raquel; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Perez-Martin, Sara

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Spanish energy scenario for the hypothetical deployment of Gen-IV SFR reactors. • Availability of national resources is assessed, considering SFR’s breeding. • An assessment of the impact of transmuting MA on the final repository. • SERPENT code with own pre- and post-processing tools were employed. • The employed SFR core design is based on the specifications of the CP-ESFR. - Abstract: The advantages of fast-spectrum reactors consist not only of an efficient use of fuel through the breeding of fissile material and the use of natural or depleted uranium, but also of the potential reduction of the amount of actinides such as americium and neptunium contained in the irradiated fuel. The first aspect means a guaranteed future nuclear fuel supply. The second fact is key for high-level radioactive waste management, because these elements are the main responsible for the radioactivity of the irradiated fuel in the long term. The present study aims to analyze the hypothetical deployment of a Gen-IV Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) fleet in Spain. A nuclear fleet of fast reactors would enable a fuel cycle strategy different than the open cycle, currently adopted by most of the countries with nuclear power. A transition from the current Gen-II to Gen-IV fleet is envisaged through an intermediate deployment of Gen-III reactors. Fuel reprocessing from the Gen-II and Gen-III Light Water Reactors (LWR) has been considered. In the so-called advanced fuel cycle, the reprocessed fuel used to produce energy will breed new fissile fuel and transmute minor actinides at the same time. A reference case scenario has been postulated and further sensitivity studies have been performed to analyze the impact of the different parameters on the required reactor fleet. The potential capability of Spain to supply the required fleet for the reference scenario using national resources has been verified. Finally, some consequences on irradiated final fuel inventory are assessed

  8. Developing long-term scenario forecasts to support electricity generation investment decisions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Koen, Renée

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Many decisions regarding capital investment in electricity generation technologies need to be made well in advance, usually when there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding the favourability of future conditions. There may be uncertainty...

  9. Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario-generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: Chapter D in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Open-File report presents a compilation of tsunami modeling studies for the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario. These modeling studies are based on an earthquake source specified by the SAFRR tsunami source working group (Kirby and others, 2013). The modeling studies in this report are organized into three groups. The first group relates to tsunami generation. The effects that source discretization and horizontal displacement have on tsunami initial conditions are examined in section 1 (Whitmore and others). In section 2 (Ryan and others), dynamic earthquake rupture models are explored in modeling tsunami generation. These models calculate slip distribution and vertical displacement of the seafloor as a result of realistic fault friction, physical properties of rocks surrounding the fault, and dynamic stresses resolved on the fault. The second group of papers relates to tsunami propagation and inundation modeling. Section 3 (Thio) presents a modeling study for the entire California coast that includes runup and inundation modeling where there is significant exposure and estimates of maximum velocity and momentum flux at the shoreline. In section 4 (Borrero and others), modeling of tsunami propagation and high-resolution inundation of critical locations in southern California is performed using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST) model and NOAA’s Community Model Interface for Tsunamis (ComMIT) modeling tool. Adjustments to the inundation line owing to fine-scale structures such as levees are described in section 5 (Wilson). The third group of papers relates to modeling of hydrodynamics in ports and harbors. Section 6 (Nicolsky and Suleimani) presents results of the model used at the Alaska Earthquake Information Center for the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, as well as synthetic time series of the modeled tsunami for other selected

  10. Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

    2014-05-01

    The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

  11. The sacred realm: domain of new threats and challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gaay Fortman, B. de

    2006-01-01

    This chapter looks at the sacred realm –as distinct from both the public and the private realm- as a contested space, full of old and new threats and challenges. As to conventional inter-religious violence the challenge today is to preserve both a culture of tolerance and the rule of law as basic

  12. PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF SCENARIO-GENERATION METHODS APPLIED TO A STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION ASSET-LIABILITY MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Delgado de Oliveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper, we provide an empirical discussion of the differences among some scenario tree-generation approaches for stochastic programming. We consider the classical Monte Carlo sampling and Moment matching methods. Moreover, we test the Resampled average approximation, which is an adaptation of Monte Carlo sampling and Monte Carlo with naive allocation strategy as the benchmark. We test the empirical effects of each approach on the stability of the problem objective function and initial portfolio allocation, using a multistage stochastic chance-constrained asset-liability management (ALM model as the application. The Moment matching and Resampled average approximation are more stable than the other two strategies.

  13. KOVEC studies of radioisotope thermoelectric generator response (In connection with possible NASA space shuttle accident explosion scenarios)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walton, J.; Weston, A.; Lee, E.

    1984-06-26

    The Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned a study leading to a final report (NUS-4543, Report of the Shuttle Transportation System (STS) Explosion Working Group (EWG), June 8, 1984), concerned with PuO/sub 2/ dispersal should the NASA space shuttle explode during the proposed Galileo and ISPN launches planned for 1986. At DOE's request, LLNL furnished appendices that describe hydrocode KOVEC calculations of potential damage to the Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators, fueled by PuO/sub 2/, should certain explosion scenarios occur. These appendices are contained in this report.

  14. The scenario of power generation in Brazil; O cenario da geracao de energia no Brasil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dupim, Ivaldete da Silva [Universidade Federal do ABC, Santo Andre, SP (Brazil); Abreu Junior, Otavio Castor de; Moreira, Joao Manoel Losada; Carajilescov, Pedro; Leite, Patricia Teixeira; Cicogna, Marcelo A.

    2008-07-01

    The values concerning to the production of national power today, the evolution of composition and the installed capacity of electric matrix between the years 1980-2005, the outlook for demand and supply of energy according to the 'Plano Decenal de Energia' (2006-2015) were used as information basis for this study and analysis of some peculiar characteristics of the management of the energy sector in Brazil. The main objective was to highlight the importance of hydroelectric generation in Brazil. Finally we tried to make the comparison of the costs of hydroelectric generation in relation to other alternative sources available in the country.

  15. Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework. PMID:29533657

  16. Scenarios for Demand Growth of Metals in Electricity Generation Technologies, Cars, and Electronic Appliances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deetman, Sebastiaan; Pauliuk, Stefan; van Vuuren, Detlef P; van der Voet, Ester; Tukker, Arnold

    2018-04-17

    This study provides scenarios toward 2050 for the demand of five metals in electricity production, cars, and electronic appliances. The metals considered are copper, tantalum, neodymium, cobalt, and lithium. The study shows how highly technology-specific data on products and material flows can be used in integrated assessment models to assess global resource and metal demand. We use the Shared Socio-economic Pathways as implemented by the IMAGE integrated assessment model as a starting point. This allows us to translate information on the use of electronic appliances, cars, and renewable energy technologies into quantitative data on metal flows, through application of metal content estimates in combination with a dynamic stock model. Results show that total demand for copper, neodymium, and tantalum might increase by a factor of roughly 2 to 3.2, mostly as a result of population and GDP growth. The demand for lithium and cobalt is expected to increase much more, by a factor 10 to more than 20, as a result of future (hybrid) electric car purchases. This means that not just demographics, but also climate policies can strongly increase metal demand. This shows the importance of studying the issues of climate change and resource depletion together, in one modeling framework.

  17. New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Qiang [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China); Shi, Minjun [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Jiang, Kejun [Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)

    2009-06-15

    Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies. (author)

  18. New power generation technology options under the greenhouse gases mitigation scenario in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qiang, Liu [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)], E-mail: liuqiang@eri.org.cn; Minjun, Shi [Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Science, 19A Yu Quan Road, Beijing 100049 (China); Kejun, Jiang [Energy Research Institute, Guohong Mansion, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038 (China)

    2009-06-15

    Climate change has become a global issue. Almost all countries, including China, are now considering adopting policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The power generation sector, as a key source of GHG emissions, will also have significant potential for GHG mitigation. One of the key options is to use new energy technologies with higher energy efficiencies and lower carbon emissions. In this article, we use an energy technology model, MESSAGE-China, to analyze the trend of key new power generation technologies and their contributions to GHG mitigation in China. We expect that the traditional renewable technologies, high-efficiency coal power generation and nuclear power will contribute substantially to GHG mitigation in the short term, and that solar power, biomass energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) will become more important in the middle and long term. In the meantime, in order to fully bring the role of technology progress into play, China needs to enhance the transfer and absorption of international advanced technologies and independently strengthen her ability in research, demonstration and application of new power generation technologies.

  19. Modelling cross-scale relationships between climate, hydrology, and individual animals: Generating scenarios for stream salamanders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe eGirard

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid modelling provides a unique opportunity to study cross-scale relationships in environmental systems by linking together models of global, regional, landscape, and local-scale processes, yet the approach is rarely applied to address conservation and management questions. Here, we demonstrate how a hybrid modelling approach can be used to assess the effect of cross-scale interactions on the survival of the Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamander (Desmognathus ochrophaeus in response to changes in temperature and water availability induced by climate change at the northern limits of its distribution. To do so, we combine regional climate modelling with a landscape-scale integrated surface-groundwater flow model and an individual-based model of stream salamanders. On average, climate scenarios depict a warmer and wetter environment for the 2050 horizon. The increase in average annual temperature and extended hydrological activity time series in the future, combined with a better synchronization with the salamanders’ reproduction period, result in a significant increase in the long-term population viability of the salamanders. This indicates that climate change may not necessarily limit the survivability of small, stream-dwelling animals in headwater basins located in cold and humid regions. This new knowledge suggests that habitat conservation initiatives for amphibians with large latitudinal distributions in Eastern North America should be prioritized at the northern limits of their ranges to facilitate species migration and persistence in the face of climate change. This example demonstrates how hybrid models can serve as powerful tools for informing management and conservation decisions.

  20. Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system configuration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. Requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated. - Highlights: • Computational model to synthesize artificial wind speed data with consistent characteristics with database. • Fourier series to capture seasonal trends in the database. • Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems. • Investigation of the effect of battery in smoothing variability of wind power generation.

  1. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  2. Power Generation Expansion Optimization Model Considering Multi-Scenario Electricity Demand Constraints: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Wang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Reasonable and effective power planning contributes a lot to energy efficiency improvement, as well as the formulation of future economic and energy policies for a region. Since only a few provinces in China have nuclear power plants so far, nuclear power plants were not considered in many provincial-level power planning models. As an extremely important source of power generation in the future, the role of nuclear power plants can never be overlooked. In this paper, a comprehensive and detailed optimization model of provincial-level power generation expansion considering biomass and nuclear power plants is established from the perspective of electricity demand uncertainty. This model has been successfully applied to the case study of Zhejiang Province. The findings suggest that the nuclear power plants will contribute 9.56% of the total installed capacity, and it will become the second stable electricity source. The lowest total discounted cost is 1033.28 billion RMB and the fuel cost accounts for a large part of the total cost (about 69%. Different key performance indicators (KPI differentiate electricity demand in scenarios that are used to test the model. Low electricity demand in the development mode of the comprehensive adjustment scenario (COML produces the optimal power development path, as it provides the lowest discounted cost.

  3. Integrated doses calculation in evacuation scenarios of the neutron generator facility at Missouri S&T

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, Manish K.; Alajo, Ayodeji B., E-mail: alajoa@mst.edu

    2016-08-11

    Any source of ionizing radiations could lead to considerable dose acquisition to individuals in a nuclear facility. Evacuation may be required when elevated levels of radiation is detected within a facility. In this situation, individuals are more likely to take the closest exit. This may not be the most expedient decision as it may lead to higher dose acquisition. The strategy followed in preventing large dose acquisitions should be predicated on the path that offers least dose acquisition. In this work, the neutron generator facility at Missouri University of Science and Technology was analyzed. The Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code was used to model the entire floor of the generator's building. The simulated dose rates in the hallways were used to estimate the integrated doses for different paths leading to exits. It was shown that shortest path did not always lead to minimum dose acquisition and the approach was successful in predicting the expedient path as opposed to the approach of taking the nearest exit.

  4. Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sungjun; Chung, Yanghon; Woo, Chungwon

    2015-01-01

    South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment

  5. Generation of higher derivatives operators and electromagnetic wave propagation in a Lorentz-violation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Borges, L.H.C., E-mail: luizhenriqueunifei@yahoo.com.br [Universidade Federal do ABC, Centro de Ciências Naturais e Humanas, Av. dos Estados, 5001, Santo André, SP, 09210-580 (Brazil); Dias, A.G., E-mail: alex.dias@ufabc.edu.br [Universidade Federal do ABC, Centro de Ciências Naturais e Humanas, Av. dos Estados, 5001, Santo André, SP, 09210-580 (Brazil); Ferrari, A.F., E-mail: alysson.ferrari@ufabc.edu.br [Universidade Federal do ABC, Centro de Ciências Naturais e Humanas, Av. dos Estados, 5001, Santo André, SP, 09210-580 (Brazil); Nascimento, J.R., E-mail: jroberto@fisica.ufpb.br [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, Caixa Postal 5008, João Pessoa, Paraíba, 58051-970 (Brazil); Petrov, A.Yu., E-mail: petrov@fisica.ufpb.br [Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal da Paraíba, Caixa Postal 5008, João Pessoa, Paraíba, 58051-970 (Brazil)

    2016-05-10

    We study the perturbative generation of higher-derivative Lorentz violating operators as quantum corrections to the photon effective action, originated from a specific Lorentz violation background, which has already been studied in connection with the physics of light pseudoscalars. We calculate the complete one loop effective action of the photon field through the proper-time method, using the zeta function regularization. This result can be used as a starting point to study possible effects of the Lorentz violating background we are considering in photon physics. As an example, we focus on the lowest order corrections and investigate whether they could influence the propagation of electromagnetic waves through the vacuum. We show, however, that no effects of the kind of Lorentz violation we consider can be detected in such a context, so that other aspects of photon physics have to be studied.

  6. Needs for Flexibility in Energy Systems Caused by the Increasing Share of Variable Renewable Energy Generation in 2020, 2030 and 2050 Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Maule, Petr

    scenarios are the baseline scenarios from3. Variable renewable energy generation is analysed using the CorWind tool developed at DTU Wind Energya. In addition to analysing VRE generation, the variability of net load (electricity consumption subtracted by VRE generation) is analysed. Compared to 2014...... consumption). However, there is always some probability that the aggregate VRE generation is zero, so the highest possible net load is determined by peak consumption. This may raise questions considering the incentives to hold enough other generation capacity to meet the rare peak net load. Compared...... to the hourly ramp rates in consumption, the increasing VRE generation increases the ramp rates in the aggregate net load only moderately in the future scenarios; STD of the net load ramp rate in 2050 is expected to be 14% higher than in 2014. However, while ramp rates in consumption happen usually at well...

  7. Physical Modeling of Tsunamis Generated By 3D Deformable Landslides in Various Scenarios From Fjords to Conical Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFall, B. C.; Fritz, H. M.

    2013-12-01

    Tsunamis generated by landslides and volcano flank collapse can be particularly devastative in the near field region due to locally high wave amplitudes and runup. The events of 1958 Lituya Bay, 1963 Vajont reservoir, 1980 Spirit Lake, 2002 Stromboli and 2010 Haiti demonstrate the danger of tsunamis generated by landslides or volcano flank collapses. Unfortunately critical field data from these events is lacking. Source and runup scenarios based on real world events are physically modeled using generalized Froude similarity in the three dimensional NEES tsunami wave basin at Oregon State University. A novel pneumatic landslide tsunami generator (LTG) was deployed to simulate landslides with varying geometry and kinematics. Two different materials are used to simulate landslides to study the granulometry effects: naturally rounded river gravel and cobble mixtures. The LTG consists of a sliding box filled with 1,350 kg of landslide material which is accelerated by means of four pneumatic pistons down a 2H:1V slope. The landslide is launched from the sliding box and continues to accelerate by gravitational forces up to velocities of 5 m/s. The landslide Froude number at impact with the water is in the range 1 scenarios tested with the LTG are the basin-wide propagation and runup, fjord, curved headland fjord and a conical island setting representing a landslide off an island or a volcano flank collapse. Water surface elevations are recorded by an array of resistance wave gauges. The landslide deformation is measured from above and underwater camera recordings. The landslide deposit is measured on the basin floor with a multiple transducer acoustic array (MTA). Landslide surface reconstruction and kinematics are determined with a stereo particle image velocimetry (PIV) system. Wave runup is recorded with resistance wave gauges along the slope and verified with video image processing. The measured landslide and wave parameters are

  8. Potential decline in geothermal energy generation due to rising temperatures under climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angel, E.; Ortega, S.; Gonzalez-Duque, D.; Ruiz-Carrascal, D.

    2016-12-01

    Geothermal energy production depends on the difference between air temperature and the geothermal fluid temperature. The latter remains approximately constant over time, so the power generation varies according to local atmospheric conditions. Projected changes in near-surface air temperatures in the upper levels of the tropical belt are likely to exceed the projected temperature anomalies across many other latitudes, which implies that geothermal plants located in these regions may be affected, reducing their energy output. This study focuses on a hypothetical geothermal power plant, located in the headwaters of the Claro River watershed, a key high-altitude basin in Los Nevados Natural Park, on the El Ruiz-Tolima volcanic massif, in the Colombian Central Andes, a region with a known geothermal potential. Four different Atmospheric General Circulation Models where used to project temperature anomalies for the 2040-2069 prospective period. Their simulation outputs were merged in a differentially-weighted multi-model ensemble, whose weighting factors were defined according to the capability of individual models to reproduce ground truth data from a set of digital data-loggers installed in the basin since 2008 and from weather stations gathering climatic variables since the early 50s. Projected anomalies were computed for each of the Representative Concentration Pathways defined by the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report in the studied region. These climate change projections indicate that air temperatures will likely reach positive anomalies in the range +1.27 ºC to +3.47 ºC, with a mean value of +2.18 ºC. Under these conditions, the annual energy output declines roughly 1% per each degree of increase in near-surface temperature. These results must be taken into account in geothermal project evaluations in the region.

  9. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Noël, Thomas; Jerez, Sonia; Thais, Françoise; Van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Nikulin, Grigory; Teichmann, Claas

    2016-01-01

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales. (letter)

  10. REVISED (REALM-R) TO THE

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-09-02

    Sep 2, 2010 ... patient education. In South Africa, no current instrument is available to assess the literacy levels of .... and palliative care, health promotion and nursing research ..... Polit, F.D. & Beck, C.T., 2008, Nursing research: Generating and assessing evidence for nursing practice, 8th edn., Philadelphia,. Lippincott ...

  11. Electricity Generation - National scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Surendar, C [Nuclear Power Corp. of India, Mumbai (India)

    1997-12-01

    The activities of Nuclear Power Corporation of India on implementation of the India`s nuclear power programme are described. The parameters of Tarapur, Rajasthan, Madras, Narora, Kakrapar nuclear power plants are presented, including issues of safety management.

  12. Actores sociales y ambitos de construccion de politicas ambientales Social actors and scenarios in the generation of environmental politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Gudynas

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Se analiza el concepto de "actores claves" en la generación de políticas ambientales. Independientemente de la definición de actor social que se maneje, el asumir la existencia de actores claves ofrece limitaciones conceptuales y prácticas, ya que éstos son coyunturales a cada situación específica. Todos pueden ser actores claves en generar políticas ambientales cumpliendo papeles diferenciales. Como alternativa se utiliza el término de "actores destacados" y se revisan aspectos sobresalientes de varios de ellos en América Latina. Seguidamente se postula que el análisis se debe centrar en los escenarios sociales donde esos actores se pueden manifestar. Se ofrece una distinción preliminar de escenarios que permite integrar a nuevos y viejos movimientos sociales y establecer relaciones de articulación y equivalencia.The concept of "key actors" in the field of environmental politics is analyzed. Beyond the definition of social actor, the assumption of the existence of key actors implies conceptual and practical limitations, as it depends of each specific situation. Everyone could be a key actor under differential roles in the generation of environmental politics. As an alternative, the term "noteworthy actors" is used and a brief review of them in Latin America is presented. The relevant question should address the social scenarios from where these actors can express themselves. A preliminary distinction of scenarios is presented, in which old and new social movements could be integrated and relationships of articulation and equivalence could be established.

  13. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. CityZoom UP (Urban Pollution): a computational tool for the fast generation and setup of urban scenarios for CFD and dispersion modelling simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Grazziotin, Pablo Colossi

    2016-01-01

    This research presents the development of CityZoom UP, the first attempt to extend existing urban planning software in order to assist in modelling urban scenarios and setting up simulation parameters for Gaussian dispersion and CFD models. Based on the previous capabilities and graphic user interfaces of CityZoom to model and validate urban scenarios based on Master Plan regulations, new graphic user interfaces, automatic mesh generation and data conversion algorithms have been created to se...

  15. The use of multi criteria analysis to compare the operating scenarios of the hybrid generation system of wind turbines, photovoltaic modules and a fuel cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceran, Bartosz

    2017-11-01

    The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.

  16. Final Technical Report: Sparse Grid Scenario Generation and Interior Algorithms for Stochastic Optimization in a Parallel Computing Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mehrotra, Sanjay [Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)

    2016-09-07

    The support from this grant resulted in seven published papers and a technical report. Two papers are published in SIAM J. on Optimization [87, 88]; two papers are published in IEEE Transactions on Power Systems [77, 78]; one paper is published in Smart Grid [79]; one paper is published in Computational Optimization and Applications [44] and one in INFORMS J. on Computing [67]). The works in [44, 67, 87, 88] were funded primarily by this DOE grant. The applied papers in [77, 78, 79] were also supported through a subcontract from the Argonne National Lab. We start by presenting our main research results on the scenario generation problem in Sections 1–2. We present our algorithmic results on interior point methods for convex optimization problems in Section 3. We describe a new ‘central’ cutting surface algorithm developed for solving large scale convex programming problems (as is the case with our proposed research) with semi-infinite number of constraints in Section 4. In Sections 5–6 we present our work on two application problems of interest to DOE.

  17. Limno-terrestrial Tardigrada of the Nearctic Realm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana G. HINTON

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available We examined all available records of limno-terrestrial tardigrade distribution in the Nearctic realm (Greenland, Canada, Alaska, the continental United States of America, and northern Mexico, both to compare this fauna with other realms and to investigate distribution within North America. We included only those records in which tardigrades had been identified to species. Of 204 Nearctic limno-terrestrial tardigrade species, 38 were cosmopolitan, while 55 were unique to the Nearctic realm. The Nearctic tardigrade fauna is most similar to the Palearctic, with 135 species in common, 39 of which have not been reported elsewhere. The Nearctic realm shares 82 species with the Neotropical realm, only 10 which are not also Palearctic. These data are consistent with the geological history of the three realms, and indicate a distinction between Laurasian and Gondwanan tardigrade faunas. Although little is known about limno-terrestrial tardigrade distribution in much of North America, there are several excellent regional or local surveys. Many species are distributed widely throughout the continent, but 30.0% of Nearctic species have been reported from a single site. Cluster analysis of the fauna of 11 Nearctic regions shows that the Arctic and sub-Arctic fauna constitute a regional fauna distinct from the rest of the continent. Ecological analysis is hampered by inconsistent reporting of tardigrade substrate, though available data suggest little substrate specificity in terrestrial tardigrades. Most species are found in both mosses and lichens. Many are also present in soil and leaf litter, but few are found only in these substrates.

  18. Byproduct metal requirements for U.S. wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation up to the year 2040 under various Clean Power Plan scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nassar, Nedal T.; Wilburn, David R.; Goonan, Thomas G.

    2016-01-01

    The United States has and will likely continue to obtain an increasing share of its electricity from solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind power, especially under the Clean Power Plan (CPP). The need for additional solar PV modules and wind turbines will, among other things, result in greater demand for a number of minor metals that are produced mainly or only as byproducts. In this analysis, the quantities of 11 byproduct metals (Ag, Cd, Te, In, Ga, Se, Ge, Nd, Pr, Dy, and Tb) required for wind turbines with rare-earth permanent magnets and four solar PV technologies are assessed through the year 2040. Three key uncertainties (electricity generation capacities, technology market shares, and material intensities) are varied to develop 42 scenarios for each byproduct metal. The results indicate that byproduct metal requirements vary significantly across technologies, scenarios, and over time. In certain scenarios, the requirements are projected to become a significant portion of current primary production. This is especially the case for Te, Ge, Dy, In, and Tb under the more aggressive scenarios of increasing market share and conservative material intensities. Te and Dy are, perhaps, of most concern given their substitution limitations. In certain years, the differences in byproduct metal requirements between the technology market share and material intensity scenarios are greater than those between the various CPP and No CPP scenarios. Cumulatively across years 2016–2040, the various CPP scenarios are estimated to require 15–43% more byproduct metals than the No CPP scenario depending on the specific byproduct metal and scenario. Increasing primary production via enhanced recovery rates of the byproduct metals during the beneficiation and enrichment operations, improving end-of-life recycling rates, and developing substitutes are important strategies that may help meet the increased demand for these byproduct metals.

  19. Geophysical and geodynamic studies of the North Atlantic Realm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiffer, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The geology of the North Atlantic Realm (NAR), including the North Atlantic, Greenland, the Arctic, Iceland, Scandinavia, Northern Europe and Northeast America has been studied for more than a century and inspired some of the most fundamental theories in geoscience, such as plate tectonics, the s...

  20. Intertextual Realms: Towards a Chronotopic Model of Intertextuality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgit Spengler

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Since the 1966 publication of Jean Rhys's Wide Sargasso Sea, it has become a literary fashion to re-imagine well-known, and often canonical, fictional texts from the perspective of 'the minor,' a character whose marginalized existence within the literary classic tends to reflect relations of power and privilege in the extra-fictional realm.

  1. What Makes Informal Mentorship in the Medical Realm Effective?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtady, Heba A.; Könings, Karen D.; van Merriënboer, Jeroen J. G.

    2016-01-01

    Informal mentoring is based on a natural match between a junior individual and a senior one who share mutual interests. It usually aids in the professional and personal development of both parties involved. We reviewed the literature regarding factors that make informal mentoring effective within the medical realm, by searching a major academic…

  2. Evaluation of a weather generator-based method for statistically downscaling non-stationary climate scenarios for impact assessment at a point scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    The non-stationarity is a major concern for statistically downscaling climate change scenarios for impact assessment. This study is to evaluate whether a statistical downscaling method is fully applicable to generate daily precipitation under non-stationary conditions in a wide range of climatic zo...

  3. Research and development of system to utilize photovoltaic energy. Study on the scenario for the diffusion of photovoltaic power generating systems; Taiyoko hatsuden riyo sytem no kenkyu kaihatsu. Taiyoko hatsuden donyu fukyu scenario sakusei no tame no chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tatsuta, M [New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, Tokyo (Japan)

    1994-12-01

    This paper reports the result obtained during fiscal 1994 on a survey to prepare scenario for the diffusion of photovoltaic power generating systems. Introduction target planned with help of a diffusion simulation was verified by calculations using simulation models. The calculations made the following points clear: facility costs and power generation costs for photovoltaic power generation systems, amount of introduced photovoltaic power generation systems, number of facilities introducing photovoltaic power generation systems, policy cost to achieve the target, annual power generation amount, oil substituting effect, carbon dioxide reducing effect, and market sizes. Power generation cost in fiscal 2000 would drop down to 53 yen per kWh in new installation in independent houses and down to 31 yen per kWh in systems used in schools. These reductions are the result of progress in mass production as a result of positively implementing the aiding policies. The required diffusion aiding policies revealed from the simulation results include expansion of subsidy operations for house construction, introduction of the systems into public facilities performed by public organizations, aid to system introduction into private business entities, subsidy to facility investments, and enforcement of power purchase institutions. 3 figs.

  4. DInSAR time series generation within a cloud computing environment: from ERS to Sentinel-1 scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casu, Francesco; Elefante, Stefano; Imperatore, Pasquale; Lanari, Riccardo; Manunta, Michele; Zinno, Ivana; Mathot, Emmanuel; Brito, Fabrice; Farres, Jordi; Lengert, Wolfgang

    2013-04-01

    requests of processing resources linked to disaster events. This work aims at presenting a parallel computational model for the widely used DInSAR algorithm named as Small BAseline Subset (SBAS), which has been implemented within the cloud computing environment provided by the ESA-CIOP platform. This activity has resulted in developing a scalable, unsupervised, portable, and widely accessible (through a web portal) parallel DInSAR computational tool. The activity has rewritten and developed the SBAS application algorithm within a parallel system environment, i.e., in a form that allows us to benefit from multiple processing units. This requires the devising a parallel version of the SBAS algorithm and its subsequent implementation, implying additional complexity in algorithm designing and an efficient multi processor programming, with the final aim of a parallel performance optimization. Although the presented algorithm has been designed to work with Sentinel-1 data, it can also process other satellite SAR data (ERS, ENVISAT, CSK, TSX, ALOS). Indeed, the performance analysis of the implemented SBAS parallel version has been tested on the full ASAR archive (64 acquisitions) acquired over the Napoli Bay, a volcanic and densely urbanized area in Southern Italy. The full processing - from the raw data download to the generation of DInSAR time series - has been carried out by engaging 4 nodes, each one with 2 cores and 16 GB of RAM, and has taken about 36 hours, with respect to about 135 hours of the sequential version. Extensive analysis on other test areas significant from DInSAR and geophysical viewpoint will be presented. Finally, preliminary performance evaluation of the presented approach within the Sentinel-1 scenario will be provided.

  5. Application of portfolio analysis to the Dutch generating mix. Reference case and two renewables cases, year 2030, SE and GE scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jansen, J.C.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; Van Tilburg, X.

    2006-02-01

    This report presents results of an application of Markowitz Portfolio Theory (MPT) to the future portfolio of electricity generating technologies in the Netherlands in year 2030. Projections are made based on two specific scenarios constructed by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), i.e. 'Strong Europe (SE)' and 'Global Economy (GE)'. This study zooms in on the electricity cost risk dimension of the Dutch portfolio of generating technologies. Major results of this study are: (a) In both scenarios, the base variant is not very efficient. Graphical analysis suggests that diversification may yield up to 20% risk reduction at no extra cost; (b) Promotion of renewable energy can greatly decrease the portfolio risk. Defining mixes without renewables results in significantly riskier mixes with relatively small impact on portfolio costs; (c) Because of its relative low risk and high potential, large-scale implementation of offshore wind can reduce cost risk of the Dutch generating portfolio while only in the GE scenario a (small) upward effect on the projected Dutch electricity cost in year 2030 is foreseen. In a SE world large-scale implementation of offshore wind is projected to have a downward effect on Dutch electricity prices by the year 2030

  6. Nearby, Well Known. The Parochial Realm of Neighborhoods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarethe Kusenbach

    2011-03-01

    urba neighborhoods often fail to notice that their research areas are typically slices of the parochial realm, meaning a social territory that is not unique to cities but also common in suburbs and even small towns. Of course, there can be huge differences between an urban hood and a small town quarter yet both share important characteristics which some urban scholars overlook in their belief that city boundaries, density and diversity, or a certain look and feel guarantee the urban-ness of their research areas.

  7. Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

    Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

  8. Future residential loads profiles : scenario-based analysis of high penetration of heavy loads and distributed generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asare-Bediako, B.; Kling, W.L.; Ribeiro, P.F.

    2014-01-01

    Electric load profiles are useful for accurate load forecasting, network planning and optimal generation capacity. They represent electricity demand patterns and are to a large extent predictable. However, new and heavier loads (heat pumps and electric vehicles), distributed generation, and home

  9. Scenarios for the hierarchical evaluation of the global sustainability of electric generator plants; Escenarios para la evaluacion jerarquica de la sustentabilidad global de plantas generadoras de electricidad

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roldan A, M.C.; Martinez F, M. [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, UNAM, A.P. 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)]. e-mail: mcra@cie.unam.mx

    2007-07-01

    The AHP multi criteria method was applied (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Analytic process of Hierarchization) to evaluate the sustainability in the whole life cycle of the electricity generation technologies (hydroelectric, carboelectric, thermoelectric natural fuel oil, natural gas thermoelectric, geothermal, nucleo electric, wind electric, photo thermic and photovoltaic) with the purpose of offering an useful method in the taking of decisions to impel the sustainable development. Eight scenarios are analyzed. The results in most of the scenarios reflect the benefit of the renewable energy: the hydroelectric energy, photo thermic and wind driven its are those more sustainable. To reach the sustainable development in Mexico, the energy politicians should be more near to the use of the renewable energy. (Author)

  10. Rethinking Data Sharing and Human Participant Protection in Social Science Research: Applications from the Qualitative Realm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dessi Kirilova

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available While data sharing is becoming increasingly common in quantitative social inquiry, qualitative data are rarely shared. One factor inhibiting data sharing is a concern about human participant protections and privacy. Protecting the confidentiality and safety of research participants is a concern for both quantitative and qualitative researchers, but it raises specific concerns within the epistemic context of qualitative research. Thus, the applicability of emerging protection models from the quantitative realm must be carefully evaluated for application to the qualitative realm. At the same time, qualitative scholars already employ a variety of strategies for human-participant protection implicitly or informally during the research process. In this practice paper, we assess available strategies for protecting human participants and how they can be deployed. We describe a spectrum of possible data management options, such as de-identification and applying access controls, including some already employed by the Qualitative Data Repository (QDR in tandem with its pilot depositors. Throughout the discussion, we consider the tension between modifying data or restricting access to them, and retaining their analytic value. We argue that developing explicit guidelines for sharing qualitative data generated through interaction with humans will allow scholars to address privacy concerns and increase the secondary use of their data.

  11. Carbon capture and storage in power generation and wind energy. Flexibility and reliability issues in scenarios for Northwest Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Deurzen, J.; Seebregts, A.

    2011-01-01

    The Netherlands is both heavily dependent on the success of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and renewable electricity for its decarbonisation policy. The same holds for the EU and some of its Member States like the United Kingdom. This paper discusses several scenarios for the Netherlands within the context of a liberalized and a more and more connected energy market in Northwest-Europe. The research reported here shows that CCS on new coal fired power plants does not pose a threat to the increase in the electricity production by large quantities of wind energy in the electricity system, and vice versa. For renewable energy, several additional policies are in place mainly in the form of financial support as long as these renewable options are not yet profitable. For CCS, financial support is only granted now for a selection of the first demonstration projects now planned in the EU. It is not yet clear if large scale CCS and high shares of wind energy can be incorporated in a balanced way in the electricity system. This paper shows that from a technical and economic point of view, there is room for both, and under which conditions such a two fold growth will be feasible.

  12. The generation of three-dimensional petroleum reservoirs scenarios; Geracao de cenarios tridimensionais de reservatorios petroliferos canalizados

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alves, Andre Luiz F. [Universidade Federal de Campina Grande (UFCG), PB (Brazil)]. E-mail: andre.alfa@gmail.com; Silva, Rosana M. da [Universidade Federal de Campo Grande (UFCG), PB (Brazil). Unidade Academica de Matematica e Estatistica]. E-mail: rosana@dme.ufcg.edu.br

    2008-07-01

    This paper presents a prototype of a modeler aimed to obtain 3-dimensional geologic scenarios which simulate canalized petroleum reservoirs from information about the geometry of the geologic units that compound them and the wells' profiles, using as a base the 'Namorado' Field (Campos Basin, Rio de Janeiro). The connected volumes that form a reservoir have proper shapes, which can be hardly modeled by known surfaces with parametric description (or implicit). The geologic units implemented by the prototype are formed by turbidity canals, which are represented by poliedric surfaces through triangulated webs. The 3-dimensional models that represent the reservoir geometry were obtained using the method of superposition of geologic units, according to the natural depositional sequence, through intersection operations between the geologic units modeled as poliedric surfaces. Limit boxes are used to optimize the calculus of intersections in the triangulated webs, using the algorithm proposed by Lo and Wang (2004). The validation of the 3-dimensional model, that models the reservoir, is done through the calculus of interiority, obtained from the implicit equations that describe the transversal sections of the canal's surface, whose domains include the identified intervals as reservoir in the data of previously informed wells. (author)

  13. Discussing Landscape Compositional Scenarios Generated with Maximization of Non-Expected Utility Decision Models Based on Weighted Entropies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Pinto Casquilho

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The search for hypothetical optimal solutions of landscape composition is a major issue in landscape planning and it can be outlined in a two-dimensional decision space involving economic value and landscape diversity, the latter being considered as a potential safeguard to the provision of services and externalities not accounted in the economic value. In this paper, we use decision models with different utility valuations combined with weighted entropies respectively incorporating rarity factors associated to Gini-Simpson and Shannon measures. A small example of this framework is provided and discussed for landscape compositional scenarios in the region of Nisa, Portugal. The optimal solutions relative to the different cases considered are assessed in the two-dimensional decision space using a benchmark indicator. The results indicate that the likely best combination is achieved by the solution using Shannon weighted entropy and a square root utility function, corresponding to a risk-averse behavior associated to the precautionary principle linked to safeguarding landscape diversity, anchoring for ecosystem services provision and other externalities. Further developments are suggested, mainly those relative to the hypothesis that the decision models here outlined could be used to revisit the stability-complexity debate in the field of ecological studies.

  14. Needs for Flexibility Caused by the Variability and Uncertainty in Wind and Solar Generation in 2020, 2030 and 2050 Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Maule, Petr

    The growing share of variable renewable energy sources (VRE) in Nordic and Baltic countries is expected to increase the need for flexibility in the energy systems. VRE generation is highly variable because it is determined by weather conditions, and it is uncertain due to forecasting errors. Both...

  15. Global screening for Critical Habitat in the terrestrial realm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauneder, Kerstin M; Montes, Chloe; Blyth, Simon; Bennun, Leon; Butchart, Stuart H M; Hoffmann, Michael; Burgess, Neil D; Cuttelod, Annabelle; Jones, Matt I; Kapos, Val; Pilgrim, John; Tolley, Melissa J; Underwood, Emma C; Weatherdon, Lauren V; Brooks, Sharon E

    2018-01-01

    Critical Habitat has become an increasingly important concept used by the finance sector and businesses to identify areas of high biodiversity value. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) defines Critical Habitat in their highly influential Performance Standard 6 (PS6), requiring projects in Critical Habitat to achieve a net gain of biodiversity. Here we present a global screening layer of Critical Habitat in the terrestrial realm, derived from global spatial datasets covering the distributions of 12 biodiversity features aligned with guidance provided by the IFC. Each biodiversity feature is categorised as 'likely' or 'potential' Critical Habitat based on: 1. Alignment between the biodiversity feature and the IFC Critical Habitat definition; and 2. Suitability of the spatial resolution for indicating a feature's presence on the ground. Following the initial screening process, Critical Habitat must then be assessed in-situ by a qualified assessor. This analysis indicates that a total of 10% and 5% of the global terrestrial environment can be considered as likely and potential Critical Habitat, respectively, while the remaining 85% did not overlap with any of the biodiversity features assessed and was classified as 'unknown'. Likely Critical Habitat was determined principally by the occurrence of Key Biodiversity Areas and Protected Areas. Potential Critical Habitat was predominantly characterised by data representing highly threatened and unique ecosystems such as ever-wet tropical forests and tropical dry forests. The areas we identified as likely or potential Critical Habitat are based on the best available global-scale data for the terrestrial realm that is aligned with IFC's Critical Habitat definition. Our results can help businesses screen potential development sites at the early project stage based on a range of biodiversity features. However, the study also demonstrates several important data gaps and highlights the need to incorporate new and

  16. Downscale climate change scenarios over the Western Himalayan region of India using multi-generation CMIP experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Lalu; Meher, Jitendra K.; Akhter, Javed

    2017-04-01

    Assessing climate change information over the Western Himalayan Region (WHR) of India is crucial but challenging task due to its limited numbers of station data containing huge missing values. The issues of missing values of station data were replaced the Multiple Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) technique. Finally 22 numbers of rain gauge stations having continuous data during 1901-2005 and 16 numbers stations having continuous temperature data during 1969-2009 were considered as " reference stations for assessing rainfall and temperature trends in addition to evaluation of the GCMs available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) over WRH. Station data indicates that the winter warming is higher and rapid (1.05oC) than other seasons and less warming in the post monsoon season in the last 41 years. Area averaged using 22 station data indicates that monsoon and winter rainfall has decreased by -5 mm and -320 mm during 1901-2000 while pre-monsoon and post monsoon showed an increasing trends of 21 mm and 13 mm respectively. Present study is constructed the downscaled climate change information at station locations (22 and 16 stations for rainfall and temperature respectively) over the WHR from the GCMs commonly available in the IPCC's different generations assessment reports namely 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th thereafter known as SAR, TAR, AR4 and AR5 respectively. Once the downscaled results are obtained for each generation model outputs, then a comparison of studies is carried out from the results of each generation. Finally an overall model improvement index (OMII) is developed using the downscaling results which is used to investigate the model improvement across generations as well as the improvement of downscaling results obtained from the empirical statistical downscaling (ESD) methods. In general, the results indicate that there is a gradual improvement of GCMs simulations as well as downscaling results across generation

  17. Super long-term scenario of world nuclear power generation and uranium supply and demand until 2030 and further 2100

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Kakinoki, Tatsuro

    2007-01-01

    Based on latest nuclear policy and development trend in each country in the world, quantity of nuclear power generation and the uranium supply and demand until 2030 and further 2100 were predicted. As a result, the introduction of nuclear power stations spreads around Asia until 2030. The limitation on the uranium resources clearly does not exist until 2030, but a development period of around 10 years is necessary for exploitation of uranium resources. If timely development investment does not advance, it may invite shortage of uranium supply and promote a remarkable rise of uranium supply price. If the reinforcement of the anti-global warming measure and the diversification of the energy source advance at the super long-term time span called 2100, the world coal power largely decreases and the introduction of the nuclear power enlarges steadily. Introduction of the light water reactor (LWR) extends until 2080 since the fuel uses uranium resources of about 70 year ratio of reserves to production, but quantity of LWR power stations and power generation changes for the decrease due to the limitation of uranium resources after it. On the other hand, sustained expansion of the plutonium utilization by the fuel cycle technology and the introduction of the fast breeder reactor (FBR) advance after 2050. Then the sustained expansion of nuclear power is surely expected to occupy the first share of power generation in 2100. On this account it is necessary to push forward the plutonium use, backend technology and FBR development globally, and Japan is expected to carry a positive role to lead international nuclear energy technology development as a nuclear energy developed nation. (T. Tanaka)

  18. The blossoms of loss: Ovid's floral metamorphoses and Poussin's realm of flora.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tutter, Adele

    2014-07-01

    Alluring and fertile, the flower connotes a locus of desire. The floral metamorphic myths narrated in Ovid's Metamorphoses (AD 8a) thematize the price of desire--the shame, grief, and rage of rejection and rivalrous defeat--and symbolize the generative transformation that frustrated desire and competitive loss can promote. In the deceptively beautiful painting Realm of Flora of 1631, Nicolas Poussin enlists these myths as allegories of his own great creative leap, an aesthetic metamorphosis that followed shattering defeats. Extending the association between creativity and object loss to competitive loss, Poussin holds a mirror to our powerful drive to prevail and create anew from the ashes of loss. © 2014 The Psychoanalytic Quarterly, Inc.

  19. Phenotype characterization of embryoid body structures generated by a crystal comet effect tail in an intercellular cancer collision scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diaz JA

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Jairo A Diaz, Mauricio F MurilloDepartment of Pathology, Hospital Departmental Villavicencio, Hospital Departmental Granada, Medicine School, University Cooperative of Colombia, Villavicencio, Meta, ColombiaAbstract: Cancer is, by definition, the uncontrolled growth of autonomous cells that eventually destroy adjacent tissues and generate architectural disorder. However, this concept cannot be totally true. In three well documented studies, we have demonstrated that cancer tissues produce order zones that evolve over time and generate embryoid body structures in a space-time interval. The authors decided to revise the macroscopic and microscopic material in well-developed malignant tumors in which embryoid bodies were identified to determine the phenotype characterization that serves as a guideline for easy recognition. The factors responsible for this morphogenesis are physical, bioelectric, and magnetic susceptibilities produced by crystals that act as molecular designers for the topographic gradients that guide the surrounding silhouette and establish tissue head-tail positional identities. The structures are located in amniotic-like cavities and show characteristic somite-like embryologic segmentation. Immunophenotypic study has demonstrated exclusion factor positional identity in relation to enolase-immunopositive expression of embryoid body and human chorionic gonadotropin immunopositivity exclusion factor expression in the surrounding tissues. The significance of these observations is that they can also be predicted by experimental image data collected by the Large Hadron Collider (LHC accelerator at the European Organization for Nuclear Research, in which two-beam subatomic collision particles in the resulting debris show hyperorder domains similar to those identified by us in intercellular cancer collisions. Our findings suggest that we are dealing with true reverse biologic system information in an activated collective cancer stem cell

  20. Decarbonization scenarios for the EU and MENA power system: Considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haller, Markus; Ludig, Sylvie; Bauer, Nico

    2012-01-01

    We use the multi-scale power system model LIMES-EU + to explore coordinated long term expansion pathways for Renewable Energy (RE) generation, long distance transmission and storage capacities for the power sector of the Europe and Middle East/North Africa (MENA) regions that lead to a low emission power system. We show that ambitious emission reduction targets can be achieved at moderate costs by a nearly complete switch to RE sources until 2050, if transmission and storage capacities are expanded adequately. Limiting transmission capacities to current levels leads to higher storage requirements, higher curtailments, and to an increase in temporal and spatial electricity price variations. Results show an escalation of electricity prices if emission reductions exceed a critical value. Adequate expansion of transmission and storage capacities shift this threshold from 70% to 90% emission reductions in 2050 relative to 2010. - Highlights: ► We present an EU+MENA power system model that considers long term investments and integration of renewables. ► For low emission targets, renewable integration issues lead to escalating electricity prices. ► The feasibility frontier can be pushed by adequate transmission and storage investments. ► The transformation from wind/fossil to wind/solar regime changes integration requirements. ► Low emission targets can be reached without significant interconnections between EU and MENA regions.

  1. Phenomena identification and ranking tables for Westinghouse AP600 small break loss-of-coolant accident, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, G.E.; Fletcher, C.D.; Davis, C.B. [and others

    1997-06-01

    This report revision incorporates new experimental evidence regarding AP600 behavior during small break loss-of-coolant accidents. This report documents the results of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) efforts for the Westinghouse AP600 reactor. The purpose of this PIRT is to identify important phenomena so that they may be addressed in both the experimental programs and the RELAP5/MOD3 systems analysis computer code. In Revision of this report, the responses of AP600 during small break loss-of-coolant accident, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture accident scenarios were evaluated by a committee of thermal-hydraulic experts. Committee membership included Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory staff and recognized thermal-hydraulic experts from outside of the laboratory. Each of the accident scenarios was subdivided into separate, sequential periods or phases. Within each phase, the plant behavior is controlled by, at most, a few thermal-hydraulic processes. The committee identified the phenomena influencing those processes, and ranked & influences as being of high, medium, low, or insignificant importance. The primary product of this effort is a series of tables, one for each phase of each accident scenario, describing the thermal-hydraulic phenomena judged by the committee to be important, and the relative ranking of that importance. The rationales for the phenomena selected and their rankings are provided. This document issue incorporates an update of the small break loss-of-coolant accident portion of the report. This revision is the result of the release of experimental evidence from AP600-related integral test facilities (ROSA/AP600, OSU, and SPES) and thermal-hydraulic expert review. The activities associated with this update were performed during the period from June 1995 through November 1996. 8 refs., 26 figs., 42 tabs.

  2. Phenomena identification and ranking tables for Westinghouse AP600 small break loss-of-coolant accident, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Fletcher, C.D.; Davis, C.B.

    1997-06-01

    This report revision incorporates new experimental evidence regarding AP600 behavior during small break loss-of-coolant accidents. This report documents the results of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) efforts for the Westinghouse AP600 reactor. The purpose of this PIRT is to identify important phenomena so that they may be addressed in both the experimental programs and the RELAP5/MOD3 systems analysis computer code. In Revision of this report, the responses of AP600 during small break loss-of-coolant accident, main steam line break, and steam generator tube rupture accident scenarios were evaluated by a committee of thermal-hydraulic experts. Committee membership included Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory staff and recognized thermal-hydraulic experts from outside of the laboratory. Each of the accident scenarios was subdivided into separate, sequential periods or phases. Within each phase, the plant behavior is controlled by, at most, a few thermal-hydraulic processes. The committee identified the phenomena influencing those processes, and ranked ampersand influences as being of high, medium, low, or insignificant importance. The primary product of this effort is a series of tables, one for each phase of each accident scenario, describing the thermal-hydraulic phenomena judged by the committee to be important, and the relative ranking of that importance. The rationales for the phenomena selected and their rankings are provided. This document issue incorporates an update of the small break loss-of-coolant accident portion of the report. This revision is the result of the release of experimental evidence from AP600-related integral test facilities (ROSA/AP600, OSU, and SPES) and thermal-hydraulic expert review. The activities associated with this update were performed during the period from June 1995 through November 1996. 8 refs., 26 figs., 42 tabs

  3. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  4. Nuclear imaging in the realm of medical imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deconinck, Frank

    2003-01-01

    In medical imaging, information concerning the anatomy or biological processes of a patient is detected and presented on film or screen for interpretation by a reader. The information flow from patient to reader optimally implies: - the emission, transmission or reflection of information carriers, typically photons or sound waves, which have to be correctly modulated by patient information through interactions in the patient; - their detection by adequate imaging equipment preserving essential spectral, spatial and/or temporal information; - the presentation of the information in the most perceivable way; - the observation by an unbiased and trained expert. In reality, only an approximation to this optimal situation is achieved. It is the goal of R and D in the medical imaging field to approach the optimum as much as possible within societal constraints such as patient risk and comfort, economics, etc. First, the basic physical concepts underlying the imaging process will be introduced. Different imaging modalities will then be situated in the realm of medical imaging with some emphasis on nuclear imaging

  5. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  6. Promising lines of investigations in the realms of laboratory astrophysics with the aid of powerful lasers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belyaev, V. S.; Batishchev, P. A.; Bolshakov, V. V.; Elkin, K. S.; Karabadzhak, G. F.; Kovkov, D. V.; Matafonov, A. P.; Raykunov, G. G.; Yakhin, R. A.; Pikuz, S. A.; Skobelev, I. Yu.; Faenov, A. Ya.; Fortov, V. E.; Krainov, V. P.; Rozanov, V. B.

    2013-01-01

    The results of work on choosing and substantiating promising lines of research in the realms of laboratory astrophysics with the aid of powerful lasers are presented. These lines of research are determined by the possibility of simulating, under laboratory conditions, problematic processes of presentday astrophysics, such as (i) the generation and evolution of electromagnetic fields in cosmic space and the role of magnetic fields there at various spatial scales; (ii) the mechanisms of formation and evolution of cosmic gamma-ray bursts and relativistic jets; (iii) plasma instabilities in cosmic space and astrophysical objects, plasma jets, and shock waves; (iv) supernova explosions and mechanisms of the explosion of supernovae featuring a collapsing core; (v) nuclear processes in astrophysical objects; (vi) cosmic rays and mechanisms of their production and acceleration to high energies; and (vii) astrophysical sources of x-ray radiation. It is shown that the use of existing powerful lasers characterized by an intensity in the range of 10 18 –10 22 W/cm 2 and a pulse duration of 0.1 to 1 ps and high-energy lasers characterized by an energy in excess of 1 kJ and a pulse duration of 1 to 10 ns makes it possible to perform investigations in laboratory astrophysics along all of the chosen promising lines. The results obtained by experimentally investigating laser plasma with the aid of the laser facility created at Central Research Institute of Machine Building (TsNIIMash) and characterized by a power level of 10 TW demonstrate the potential of such facilities for performing a number of experiments in the realms of laboratory astrophysics.

  7. 77 FR 12103 - Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: “Colorful Realm: Japanese...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-28

    ... DEPARTMENT OF STATE [Public Notice: 7807] Culturally Significant Objects Imported for Exhibition Determinations: ``Colorful Realm: Japanese Bird-and-Flower Paintings by It[omacr] Jakuch[umacr] (1716-1800... determine that the objects to be included in the exhibition ``Colorful Realm: Japanese Bird-and-Flower...

  8. Fiscal 2000 survey on electrical power supply system for the purpose of reducing greenhouse effect gas. Three scenarios for spread of distributed power generation by 2010; 2000 nendo onshitsu koka gas sakugen no tame no denryoku kyokyu system ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. 2010 nen made no bunsangata dengen fukyu ni kansuru mittsu no scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    An examination was conducted concerning the course of spread of distributed power generation (on-site power generation of 2,000 kW or less) by the year 2010, with three scenarios prepared. In the scenario 1, the government will completely deregulates the power market and take no other steps, leaving the matter to market competition. The universal service will be abandoned, which means higher power prices for remote regions, contributing to the spread of home power generation. In the scenario 2, the government, having reached the limits of the nuclear propulsion policy, will adopt natural gas as the center of its electrical power policy, providing preferential treatments such as subsidies and tax exemptions and requesting the power companies to increase their usage. This will lead to higher transmission charges, with distributed power generation more advantageous to the IPPs in terms of cost. In the scenario 3, environmental awareness will make increase in the capacity quite difficult including power generation facilities and transmission/distribution network, and will invite a power crisis in the long run through insufficient capacity in power generation and transmission/distribution volume. Distributed power generation requiring no reinforcement to the grid will spread such as household-use type without system interconnection, solar cells or small fuel cells. (NEDO)

  9. Commercialization scenarios of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell applications for stationary power generation in the United States by the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millett, Stephen; Mahadevan, Kathya

    Battelle is identifying the most likely markets and economic impacts of stationary polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells in the range of 1-250 kW in the U.S. by the year 2015. For this task, Battelle is using the Interactive Future Simulations (IFS™), an analytical modeling and forecasting tool that uses expert judgment, trend analysis, and cross-impact analysis methods to generate most likely future conditions for PEM fuel cell applications, market acceptance, commercial viability, and economic impacts. The cross-impact model contains 28 descriptors including commercial and technological advances in both polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells and fossil fuel technologies, sources of hydrogen, investments, public policy, environmental regulation, value to consumers, commercialization leadership, modes of generation, and the reliability and prices of grid electricity. One likely scenario to the year 2015 is that the PEM fuel cells will be limited to commercial and industrial customers in the range of 50-200 kW with a market size less than US$ 5 billion a year.

  10. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  11. Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

    2017-04-01

    Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic

  12. Current generation by helicons and LH waves in modern tokamaks and reactors FNSF-AT, ITER and DEMO. Scenarios, modeling and antennae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vdovin, V.

    2014-02-01

    The Innovative concept and 3D full wave code modeling Off-axis current drive by RF waves in large scale tokamaks, reactors FNSF-AT, ITER and DEMO for steady state operation with high efficiency was proposed [1] to overcome problems well known for LH method [2]. The scheme uses the helicons radiation (fast magnetosonic waves at high (20-40) IC frequency harmonics) at frequencies of 500-1000 MHz, propagating in the outer regions of the plasmas with a rotational transform. It is expected that the current generated by Helicons will help to have regimes with negative magnetic shear and internal transport barrier to ensure stability at high normalized plasma pressure βN > 3 (the so-called Advanced scenarios) of interest for FNSF and the commercial reactor. Modeling with full wave three-dimensional codes PSTELION and STELEC2 showed flexible control of the current profile in the reactor plasmas of ITER, FNSF-AT and DEMO [2,3], using multiple frequencies, the positions of the antennae and toroidal waves slow down. Also presented are the results of simulations of current generation by helicons in tokamaks DIII-D, T-15MD and JT-60SA [3]. In DEMO and Power Plant antenna is strongly simplified, being some analoge of mirrors based ECRF launcher, as will be shown. For spherical tokamaks the Helicons excitation scheme does not provide efficient Off-axis CD profile flexibility due to strong coupling of helicons with O-mode, also through the boundary conditions in low aspect machines, and intrinsic large amount of trapped electrons, as is shown by STELION modeling for the NSTX tokamak. Brief history of Helicons experimental and modeling exploration in straight plasmas, tokamaks and tokamak based fusion Reactors projects is given, including planned joint DIII-D - Kurchatov Institute experiment on helicons CD [1].

  13. Current generation by helicons and LH waves in modern tokamaks and reactors FNSF-AT, ITER and DEMO. Scenarios, modeling and antennae

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vdovin, V. [NRC Kurchatov Institute Tokamak Physics Institute, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2014-02-12

    The Innovative concept and 3D full wave code modeling Off-axis current drive by RF waves in large scale tokamaks, reactors FNSF-AT, ITER and DEMO for steady state operation with high efficiency was proposed [1] to overcome problems well known for LH method [2]. The scheme uses the helicons radiation (fast magnetosonic waves at high (20–40) IC frequency harmonics) at frequencies of 500–1000 MHz, propagating in the outer regions of the plasmas with a rotational transform. It is expected that the current generated by Helicons will help to have regimes with negative magnetic shear and internal transport barrier to ensure stability at high normalized plasma pressure β{sub N} > 3 (the so-called Advanced scenarios) of interest for FNSF and the commercial reactor. Modeling with full wave three-dimensional codes PSTELION and STELEC2 showed flexible control of the current profile in the reactor plasmas of ITER, FNSF-AT and DEMO [2,3], using multiple frequencies, the positions of the antennae and toroidal waves slow down. Also presented are the results of simulations of current generation by helicons in tokamaks DIII-D, T-15MD and JT-60SA [3]. In DEMO and Power Plant antenna is strongly simplified, being some analoge of mirrors based ECRF launcher, as will be shown. For spherical tokamaks the Helicons excitation scheme does not provide efficient Off-axis CD profile flexibility due to strong coupling of helicons with O-mode, also through the boundary conditions in low aspect machines, and intrinsic large amount of trapped electrons, as is shown by STELION modeling for the NSTX tokamak. Brief history of Helicons experimental and modeling exploration in straight plasmas, tokamaks and tokamak based fusion Reactors projects is given, including planned joint DIII-D – Kurchatov Institute experiment on helicons CD [1].

  14. Socio-economic well-to-wheel analysis of biofuels. Scenarios for rapeseed diesel (RME) and 1. and 2. generation bioethanol; Samfundsoekonomisk well-to-wheel-analyse af biobraendstoffer. Scenarieberegninger for rapsdiesel (RME) og 1.- og 2.-generations bioethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slentoe, E.; Moeller, F.; Winther, M.; Hjort Mikkelsen, M.

    2010-10-15

    The report examines in an integrated form, the energy, emissions and welfare economic implications of introducing Danish produced biodiesel, i.e. rapeseed diesel (RME) and the first and second generation wheat ethanol in two scenarios with low and high rate of blending with fossil fuel based automotive fuels. Within this project's, analytical framework and assumptions the welfare economic analysis shows, that it would be beneficial for society to realize the biofuel scenarios to some extent by oil prices above $ 100 a barrel, while it will cause losses by oil prices at $ 65. In all cases, the fossil fuel consumption and the emissions CO2eq emissions are reduced, the effect of which is priced and included in the welfare economic analysis. The implementation of biofuels in Denmark will be dependent on market price. As it stands now, it is not favorable in terms of biofuels. The RME is currently produced in Denmark is exported to other European countries where there are state subsidies. Subsidies would also be a significant factor in Denmark to achieve objectives for biofuel blending. (ln)

  15. Automata learning algorithms and processes for providing more complete systems requirements specification by scenario generation, CSP-based syntax-oriented model construction, and R2D2C system requirements transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinchey, Michael G. (Inventor); Margaria, Tiziana (Inventor); Rash, James L. (Inventor); Rouff, Christopher A. (Inventor); Steffen, Bernard (Inventor)

    2010-01-01

    Systems, methods and apparatus are provided through which in some embodiments, automata learning algorithms and techniques are implemented to generate a more complete set of scenarios for requirements based programming. More specifically, a CSP-based, syntax-oriented model construction, which requires the support of a theorem prover, is complemented by model extrapolation, via automata learning. This may support the systematic completion of the requirements, the nature of the requirement being partial, which provides focus on the most prominent scenarios. This may generalize requirement skeletons by extrapolation and may indicate by way of automatically generated traces where the requirement specification is too loose and additional information is required.

  16. New storage ring at DESY's. HERA's realm in the shades. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Habermann, A.

    1987-01-01

    The venture into the smallest dimensions of the microcosm requires gigantic machines. The HERA storage ring, due for completion in 1989, shall help the scientists at DESY in their venture into new realms of high-energy physics. (orig.) [de

  17. A Need for Education in Water Sustainability in the Agricultural Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krajewski, J.

    2015-12-01

    This study draws upon the definition of water sustainability from the National Water Research Institute as the continual supply of clean water for human uses and for other living beings without compromising the water welfare of future generations. Currently, the greatest consumer of water resources worldwide is irrigation. The move from small-scale, family farms towards corporately owned and market driven, mass scale operations have drastically increased corn production and large-scale factory hog farming in the American Midwest—and the water quality related costs associated with this shift are well-documented. In the heart of the corn belt, the state of Iowa has dealt with issues over the past two decades ranging from flooding of historic proportions, to yield destroying droughts. Most recently, the state's water quality is intensely scrutinized due to nutrient levels higher than almost anywhere else in the world. While the changed agricultural landscape is ultimately responsible for these environmental costs, they can be mitigated if the farmers adopt practices that support water sustainability. However, many Iowa farmers have yet to embrace these necessary practices because of a lack of proper education in this context. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to explore how water sustainability is being conceptualized within the agricultural realm, and ultimately, how the issues are being communicated and understood within various subgroups in Iowa, such as the farmers, the college students, and the general public.

  18. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  19. Dynamic generation of socio-economic scenarios for climate change adaptation: methods, building blocks and examples; Dynamisk generering av socioekonomiska scenarier foer klimatanpassning: metod, byggstenar och exempel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlsen, Henrik; Dreborg, Karl Henrik

    2008-05-15

    There is a need for socio-economic scenarios in climate change adaptation work in order to help planners cope with uncertainty of the long term development of society. The United Nations' Panel of climate change (IPCC) has developed climate scenarios with substantially different climatic characteristics in a hundred years' perspective. However, in a 25-30 years' perspective, which is very long term in societal planning, the difference between the scenarios is small, while society may develop in different directions. Since measures of adaptation to a changing climate may have different impacts depending on future socio-economic conditions, there is a need for scenarios that describe different possible developments. With a time frame of 25 years scenarios are more useful than projections of single factors such as GDP or demography, because scenarios can capture structural changes of society. This report presents results from a first step of the development of a scenario tool for climate adaptation work in municipalities, regions, and sectors of society in Sweden. The tool is to be further developed in regional case studies with the aim to make it adaptable to the specific focus of interest of various planning agencies. Therefore, we primarily concentrate on developing external factors and different possible future states for these, and a methodology for combining them into scenarios. The report presents the main steps of the scenario methodology and building blocks for the scenario construction consisting of socio-economic factors of special importance for climate adaptation work. The 13 socio-economic factors are: Demography; International mitigation policy; International climate change adaptation policy, Swedish economy; Ideology and social cohesion; Climate change perception; Swedish governance; Environmental policy; Global energy paradigm; Swedish energy paradigm; Land use; Built environment; Transportation. For each factor different possible

  20. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  1. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  2. Applying the PR and PP Methodology for a qualitative assessment of a misuse scenario in a notional Generation IV Example Sodium Fast Reactor. Assessing design variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cojazzi, G.G.M.; Renda, G. [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, TP 210, Via E. Fermi 2749, I-21027, Ispra - Va (Italy); Hassberger, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (United States)

    2009-06-15

    The Generation IV International Forum (GIF) Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR and PP) Working Group has developed a methodology for the PR and PP evaluation of advanced nuclear energy systems. The methodology is organised as a progressive approach applying alternative methods at different levels of thoroughness as more design information becomes available and research improves the depth of technical knowledge. The GIF Proliferation Resistance and Physical Protection (PR and PP) Working Group developed a notional sodium cooled fast neutron nuclear reactor, named the Example Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR), for use in developing and testing the methodology. The ESFR is a hypothetical nuclear energy system consisting of four sodium-cooled fast reactors of medium size, co-located with an on-site dry fuel storage facility and a Fuel Cycle Facility with pyrochemical processing of the spent fuel and re-fabrication of new ESFR fuel elements. The baseline design is an actinide burner, with LWR spent fuel elements as feed material processed on the site. In the years 2007 and 2008 the GIF PR and PP Working Group performed a case study designed to both test the methodology and demonstrate how it can provide useful feedback to designers even during pre-conceptual design. The Study analysed the response of the entire ESFR system to different proliferation and theft strategies. Three proliferation threats were considered: Concealed diversion, Concealed Misuse and Abrogation. An overt theft threat was also studied. One of the objectives of the case study is to confirm the capability of the methodology to capture PR and PP differences among varied design configurations. To this aim Design Variations (DV) have been also defined corresponding respectively to a) a small variation of the baseline design (DV0), b) a deep burner configuration (DV1), c) a self sufficient core (DV2), and c) a breeder configuration (DV3). This paper builds on the approach followed for the

  3. The Inner Meaning of Outer Space: Human Nature and the Celestial Realm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy L. Hubbard

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Kant argued that humans possess a priori knowledge of space; although his argument focused on a physics of bodies, it also has implications for a psychology of beings. Many human cultures organize stars in the night sky into constellations (i.e., impose structure; attribute properties, behaviors, and abilities to objects in the celestial realm (i.e., impose meaning; and use perceived regularity in the celestial realms in development of calendars, long-range navigation, agriculture, and astrology (i.e., seek predictability and control. The physical inaccessibility of the celestial realm allows a potent source of metaphor, and also allows projection of myths regarding origin and ascension, places of power, and dwelling places of gods, immortals, and other souls. Developments in astronomy and cosmology infl uenced views of human nature and the place of humanity in the universe, and these changes parallel declines in egocentrism with human development. Views regarding alleged beings (e.g., angels, extraterrestrials from the celestial realm (and to how communicate with such beings are anthropocentric and ignore evolutionary factors in physical and cognitive development. It is suggested that in considering views and uses of the celestial realm, we learn not just about the universe, but also about ourselves. *

  4. A comparison of fuel savings in the residential and commercial sectors generated by the installation of solar heating and cooling systems under three tax credit scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moden, R.

    An analysis of expected energy savings between 1977 and 1980 under three different solar tax credit scenarios is presented. The results were obtained through the solar heating and cooling of buildings (SHACOB) commercialization model. This simulation provides projected savings of conventional fuels through the installation of solar heating and cooling systems on buildings in the residential and commercial sectors. The three scenarios analyzed considered the tax credits contained in the Windfall Profits Tax of April 1980, the National Tax Act of November 1978, and a case where no tax credit is in effect.

  5. Invisible waves and hidden realms: augmented reality and experimental art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruzanka, Silvia

    2012-03-01

    Augmented reality is way of both altering the visible and revealing the invisible. It offers new opportunities for artistic exploration through virtual interventions in real space. In this paper, the author describes the implementation of two art installations using different AR technologies, one using optical marker tracking on mobile devices and one integrating stereoscopic projections into the physical environment. The first artwork, De Ondas y Abejas (The Waves and the Bees), is based on the widely publicized (but unproven) hypothesis of a link between cellphone radiation and the phenomenon of bee colony collapse disorder. Using an Android tablet, viewers search out small fiducial markers in the shape of electromagnetic waves hidden throughout the gallery, which reveal swarms of bees scattered on the floor. The piece also creates a generative soundscape based on electromagnetic fields. The second artwork, Urban Fauna, is a series of animations in which features of the urban landscape become plants and animals. Surveillance cameras become flocks of birds while miniature cellphone towers, lampposts, and telephone poles grow like small seedlings in time-lapse animation. The animations are presented as small stereoscopic projections, integrated into the physical space of the gallery. These two pieces explore the relationship between nature and technology through the visualization of invisible forces and hidden alternate realities.

  6. Smart-DS: Synthetic Models for Advanced, Realistic Testing: Distribution Systems and Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palmintier, Bryan S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hale, Elaine T [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Elgindy, Tarek [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bugbee, Bruce [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rossol, Michael N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lopez, Anthony J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnamurthy, Dheepak [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Vergara, Claudio [MIT; Domingo, Carlos Mateo [IIT Comillas; Postigo, Fernando [IIT Comillas; de Cuadra, Fernando [IIT Comillas; Gomez, Tomas [IIT Comillas; Duenas, Pablo [MIT; Luke, Max [MIT; Li, Vivian [MIT; Vinoth, Mohan [GE Grid Solutions; Kadankodu, Sree [GE Grid Solutions

    2017-08-09

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) in collaboration with Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Universidad Pontificia Comillas (Comillas-IIT, Spain) and GE Grid Solutions, is working on an ARPA-E GRID DATA project, titled Smart-DS, to create: 1) High-quality, realistic, synthetic distribution network models, and 2) Advanced tools for automated scenario generation based on high-resolution weather data and generation growth projections. Through these advancements, the Smart-DS project is envisioned to accelerate the development, testing, and adoption of advanced algorithms, approaches, and technologies for sustainable and resilient electric power systems, especially in the realm of U.S. distribution systems. This talk will present the goals and overall approach of the Smart-DS project, including the process of creating the synthetic distribution datasets using reference network model (RNM) and the comprehensive validation process to ensure network realism, feasibility, and applicability to advanced use cases. The talk will provide demonstrations of early versions of synthetic models, along with the lessons learnt from expert engagements to enhance future iterations. Finally, the scenario generation framework, its development plans, and co-ordination with GRID DATA repository teams to house these datasets for public access will also be discussed.

  7. How to Use the Marine Realms Information Bank (MRIB) Digital Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lightsom, Frances L.; Allwardt, Alan O.

    2009-01-01

    Marine Realms Information Bank (MRIB) digital libraries provide access to free online scientific resources about oceans, coasts, and coastal watersheds. MRIB allows category, geographic, and keyword searching, alone or in combination. Instructions for searching the three MRIB libraries and for refining the searches are explained in detail.

  8. The application of somputer and network technology in the realm of petroleum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Wei

    2003-01-01

    In the our country petroleum industry inside, the computer and network technology have become the important tools of exploring and developing new oil fields. Using jumped-up and most advanced computer and network technology will carve out wider foreground for the development of the petroleum realm. (authors)

  9. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  10. Uncanny Realm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beloff, Laura

    2017-01-01

    One of the typical binaries existing in western society is the division between natural and artificial. But similarly biological and technological are often seen as oppositions. In today’s world, it is increasingly difficult to tell the difference between natural-biological entities from artifici...

  11. Implications for anomalous mantle pressure and dynamic topography from lithospheric stress patterns in the North Atlantic Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffer, Christian; Nielsen, Søren Bom

    2016-08-01

    With convergent plate boundaries at some distance, the sources of the lithospheric stress field of the North Atlantic Realm are mainly mantle tractions at the base of the lithosphere, lithospheric density structure and topography. Given this, we estimate horizontal deviatoric stresses using a well-established thin sheet model in a global finite element representation. We adjust the lithospheric thickness and the sub-lithospheric pressure iteratively, comparing modelled in plane stress with the observations of the World Stress Map. We find that an anomalous mantle pressure associated with the Iceland and Azores melt anomalies, as well as topography are able to explain the general pattern of the principle horizontal stress directions. The Iceland melt anomaly overprints the classic ridge push perpendicular to the Mid Atlantic ridge and affects the conjugate passive margins in East Greenland more than in western Scandinavia. The dynamic support of topography shows a distinct maximum of c. 1000 m in Iceland and amounts <150 m along the coast of south-western Norway and 250-350 m along the coast of East Greenland. Considering that large areas of the North Atlantic Realm have been estimated to be sub-aerial during the time of break-up, two components of dynamic topography seem to have affected the area: a short-lived, which affected a wider area along the rift system and quickly dissipated after break-up, and a more durable in the close vicinity of Iceland. This is consistent with the appearance of a buoyancy anomaly at the base of the North Atlantic lithosphere at or slightly before continental breakup, relatively fast dissipation of the fringes of this, and continued melt generation below Iceland.

  12. National Implications: Implementing the "Ways of Knowing through the Realms of Meaning" for the Improvement of Ethical Conduct

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloud, Michelle; Kritsonis, William Allan

    2007-01-01

    The intent of this article is to illustrate the effectiveness of using the tenets described in the Ways of Knowing Through the Realms of Meaning by Dr. William Allan Kritsonis (2007) to improve ethical conduct. Ten recommendations to implement the Ways of Knowing Through the Realms of Meaning for the improvement of ethical conduct are provided.…

  13. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  14. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  15. INTERACTIONS OF REALM BOUNDARIES AND END-TO-ENG NETWORK APPLICATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. FISK; W. FENG

    2000-08-01

    One of the design principles of the Internet is that the network is made more flexible, and therefore useful, by placing functionality in end applications rather than in network infrastructure. Network gateways that violate this principle are considered harmful. This paper demonstrates that such upper-level gateways exist because of realm-specific performance, security, and protocol needs of certain portions of the Internet. Placing this functionality in end hosts is, conversely, harmful to the flexibility of using the Internet to link disparate networks. Requirements are developed for a protocol to allow end-hosts and gateways to negotiate the functionality of these gateways in terms of the needs of both end applications and network realms.

  16. Towards a standard Tithonian to Valanginian calpionellid zonation of the Tethyan Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lakova, Iskra; Petrova, Silviya

    2013-06-01

    Lakova, I. and Petrowa, S. 2013. Towards a standard Tithonian to Valanginian calpionellid zonation of the Tethyan Realm. Acta Geologica Polonica, 63 (2), 201-221. Warszawa. A calpionellid zonal scheme is proposed for the Tithonian through Valanginian pelagic carbonates of the Western Balkan Unit, based on the vertical ranges of 57 chitinoidellid and calpionellid species recognized. This zonal scheme consists of calpionellid zones that are widely accepted in the Mediterranean Realm, such as the zones of Chitinoidella, Praetintinnopsella, Crassicollaria, Calpionella, Calpionellopsis, Calpionellites and Tintinnopsella. Subzonal divisions are comparable to those in the Carpathians. Direct correlations between ammonite and calpionellid ranges suggest that the base of the Upper Tithonian corresponds to the FO of Chitinoidella boneti; that of the Upper Berriasian to the FO of the genus Calpionellopsis; and the base and top of the Lower Valanginian to the FO and LO of the genus Calpionellites respectively. Correlations of the calpionellid zonation in the study area with zonations in other areas are discussed.

  17. Constructing Uniform Resource Locators (URLs) for Searching the Marine Realms Information Bank

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linck, Guthrie A.; Allwardt, Alan O.; Lightsom, Frances L.

    2009-01-01

    The Marine Realms Information Bank (MRIB) is a digital library that provides access to free online scientific information about the oceans and coastal regions. To search its collection, MRIB uses a Common Gateway Interface (CGI) program, which allows automated search requests using Uniform Resource Locators (URLs). This document provides an overview of how to construct URLs to execute MRIB queries. The parameters listed allow detailed control of which records are retrieved, how they are returned, and how their display is formatted.

  18. Challenges and Possibilities for Accommodating Wild Animals in the Realm of Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Björnegran, Amalia

    2017-01-01

    Abstract: This research seeks to investigate the possibilities and inadequacies of including wild animals within the justice realm. It bases this research on the reasons and rationales of representatives within environmental non- governmental organizations (ENGOs), non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and public agency working with animal- rights and welfare or environmental protection. These representatives reason from a personal and organizational perspective concerning justice, ethics and...

  19. Challenges in the Protection of US Critical Infrastructure in the Cyber Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-22

    means.37 When nations begin to discuss cyber warfare they need to clarify what they mean. Examples of significant differences in meanings are Germany ...and the United States. Germany defines a cyber attack as an IT attack in the cyber realm directed against one or several other IT systems and aimed at...electrical power. However, the grids themselves suffer from the consequences of underinvestment and deregulation . Newer industrial control systems use

  20. Promising lines of research in the realms of laboratory nuclear astrophysics by means of powerful lasers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belyaev, V. S., E-mail: belyaev@tsniimash.ru; Zagreev, B. V.; Kedrov, A. Yu.; Lobanov, A. V.; Matafonov, A. P. [Russian Space Agency, Pionerskaya, Central Research Institute for Machine Building (TsNIIMash) (Russian Federation); Bolshakov, V. V.; Savel’ev, A. B.; Mordvintsev, I. M.; Tsymbalov, I. N.; Shulyapov, S. A. [Moscow State University, International Laser Center (Russian Federation); Pikuz, S. A.; Skobelev, I. Yu.; Filippov, E. D.; Faenov, A. Ya. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Joint Institute for High Temperatures (Russian Federation); Krainov, V. P. [Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University) (Russian Federation)

    2016-09-15

    Basic nuclear-astrophysics problems that can be studied under laboratory conditions at a laserradiation intensity of 10{sup 18} W/cm{sup 2} or more are specified. These are the lithium problem, the problem of determining neutron sources for s-processes of heavy-element formation, the formation of bypassed stable p-nuclei, and nuclear reactions involving isotopes used by astronomers for diagnostics purposes. The results of experiments at the Neodym laser facility are presented, and proposals for further studies in these realms are formulated.

  1. Protomedetera, a new genus from the Oriental and Australasian realms (Diptera, Dolichopodidae, Medeterinae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Chufei; Grootaert, Patrick; Yang, Ding

    2018-01-01

    Protomedetera gen. n. (Diptera: Dolichopodidae), a new genus of the subfamily Medeterinae, is described from the Oriental and Australasian realms based on four new species. Protomedetera singaporensis Grootaert & Tang, sp. n. is designated as type of the new genus. The genus is peculiar because of the small body size, the small globular first flagellomere (postpedicel), the simple male genitalia with indistinct or small epandrial lobe and half-hidden cercus. The following four new species are described and illustrated: P. biconvexa sp. n. , P. biseta sp. n. , P. glabra sp. n. , and P. singaporensis sp. n. A key to the species of the new genus is provided.

  2. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  3. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  4. Permian-Triassic Tethyan realm reorganization: Implications for the outward Pangea margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riel, Nicolas; Jaillard, Etienne; Martelat, Jean-Emmanuel; Guillot, Stéphane; Braun, Jean

    2018-01-01

    We present a new conceptual model to explain the first order Permian-Triassic evolution of the whole > 30 000 km long Pangea margin facing the Panthalassa ocean. Compilation of available geological, geochemical, geochronogical and paleomagnetic data all along this system allowed us to distinguish three part of the margin: western Laurentia, western Gondwana and eastern Gondwana. These segments record distinct tectonic and magmatic events, which all occur synchronously along the whole margin and correlate well with the main geodynamic events of this period, i.e. subduction of the Paleotethys mid-ocean ridge at 310-280 Ma, opening of the Neotethys at 280-260 Ma, counterclockwise rotation of Pangea at 260-230 Ma and closure of the Paleotethys at 230-220 Ma. Between 260 and 230 Ma, the reorganization of the Tethyan realm triggered the up to 35° rotation of Pangea around an Euler pole located in northernmost South America. This implied both an increase and a decrease of the convergence rate between the margin and the Panthalassa ocean, north and south of the Euler pole, respectively. Thus, the Permian-Triassic Pangean margin was marked: in western Laurentia by marginal sea closure, in western Gondwana by widespread bimodal magmatic and volcanic activity, in eastern Gondwana by transpressive orogenic phase. Therefore, we propose that the Permian-Triassic evolution of the outward margin of Pangea was controlled by the Tethyan realm reorganization.

  5. Czesław Miłosz’s Migrant Perspective in Rodzinna Europa [Native Realm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kołodziejczyk Ewa

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The article traces the impact of Czesław Miłosz’s first American stay on his image of Central Europe in Rodzinna Europa [Native Realm]. In the United States, the post-war immigrant from Vilnius learned to perceive, understand and evaluate American culture; he also gained a new perspective on his region of Europe and Slavic immigrants. This experience enabled him to adopt an American point of view in his autobiographical essay. Following William Faulkner, Miłosz carries on an analysis of Eastern and Central Europe’s history and identities. The uses Western historical and sociological glossary to describe processes that formed his “native realm.” Analogically, the poet from pre-war Vilnius reflects on American multi-ethnicity and religious diversity from a Central European perspective. In Rodzinna Europa, Miłosz takes the position of a migrant translator and a two-way mediator between East and West.

  6. Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Grosfeld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960. Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.

  7. An age-calibrated record of upper Campanian – Maastrichtian climate change in the Boreal Realm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thibault, Nicolas Rudolph; Schovsbo, Niels; Harlou, Rikke

    nannofossil chalk is in agreement with planktic biotic events of the latest Cretaceous and matches well with climatic trends of intermediate- and deep-waters from other oceanic basins recorded through benthic foraminiferal d18O (Barrera and Savin, 1999). However, most planktic foraminiferal d18O data do......The latest Cretaceous climate of the Boreal Realm was recorded through high-resolution bulk carbon- and oxygen-stable isotopes and a nannofossil temperature index (NTI) on the Stevns-1 core (Denmark) which recovered 456 m of upper Campanian to basal Danian chalk with ~100% recovery and an excellent...... temperatures (SSTs) in the Boreal Realm. Three warming events punctuate the overall cooling trend of the latest Cretaceous: (1) the late Campanian climatic optimum (73.9–71.6 Ma) is characterized by maximum SSTs of 20°C, (2) the mid-Maastrichtian warming (69.7–68 Ma) is characterized by stable SSTs around 17°C...

  8. Measuring benefits of protected area management: trends across realms and research gaps for freshwater systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Vanessa M; Setterfield, Samantha A; Douglas, Michael M; Kennard, Mark J; Ferdinands, Keith

    2015-11-05

    Protected areas remain a cornerstone for global conservation. However, their effectiveness at halting biodiversity decline is not fully understood. Studies of protected area benefits have largely focused on measuring their impact on halting deforestation and have neglected to measure the impacts of protected areas on other threats. Evaluations that measure the impact of protected area management require more complex evaluation designs and datasets. This is the case across realms (terrestrial, freshwater, marine), but measuring the impact of protected area management in freshwater systems may be even more difficult owing to the high level of connectivity and potential for threat propagation within systems (e.g. downstream flow of pollution). We review the potential barriers to conducting impact evaluation for protected area management in freshwater systems. We contrast the barriers identified for freshwater systems to terrestrial systems and discuss potential measurable outcomes and confounders associated with protected area management across the two realms. We identify key research gaps in conducting impact evaluation in freshwater systems that relate to three of their major characteristics: variability, connectivity and time lags in outcomes. Lastly, we use Kakadu National Park world heritage area, the largest national park in Australia, as a case study to illustrate the challenges of measuring impacts of protected area management programmes for environmental outcomes in freshwater systems. © 2015 The Author(s).

  9. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  10. Study of the non inductive current generation in Tore Supra and application to the operational scenario of a continuous tokamak; Etude de la generation de courant non inductive dans Tore Supra et application aux scenarios operationnels d`un tokamak continu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazarian-Vibert, F.

    1996-07-05

    Lower Hybrid Current Drive in tokamak plasmas allows to obtain continuous operations, which constitute a necessary step towards a definition of a thermonuclear fusion reactor. The objectives of this work is to define and study fully non inductive steady-state scenarios on Tore Supra. The current diffusion equation is solved to determined precisely the inductive and non inductive current density profiles and their influence on thee time evolution of a discharge. Then, a new operation mode is studied theoretically and experimentally. In this scenario, the transformer primary circuit voltage is controlled in such a way that the flux consumption vanishes. It allows to achieve full steady-state discharges in a fast and reproducible manner. A theoretical flux consumption scaling law during plasma current ramp-up assisted by Lower-Hybrid waves is presented and validated by experimental data, in view to minimized this consumption. The influence of a non monotonic current profile on the confinement and the transport of energy in the plasma is also clearly illustrated by experiments. (author). 138 refs., 16 figs., 1 tab.

  11. New aspects of the physical scenario at origin of self-organisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanduloviciu, M.

    1994-01-01

    Plasma devices are able to generate space-temporal space charge structures displaying a body of phenomena usually attributed to systems traditionally placed outside of the realm of the physics. These structures reveal all of the essential characteristics considered as typical of self-organisation. After its birth the self-organized system is able by itself to sustain its autonomous state by a rhythmic exchange of matter and energy evidenced by the generation of ordered (and disordered) temporal structures. Electrical and spectral investigations of such structures have evidenced that microscopically at the origin of self-organisation is the symmetry-breaking and nonlinearity (determined by its quantum nature) of the excitation and ionization cross-section functions that assure the double-layer electrical charge arrangement and also the induced electrostatic forces which assure a spontaneous transition to a mechanical stability (long range correlations). Starting from this experimental result obtained in plasma it becomes possible to understand the self-organization phenomenon considering a new physical scenario very probably valid. (Author)

  12. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  13. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Multimedia

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  14. Where the waters meet: sharing ideas and experiences between inland and marine realms to promote sustainable fisheries management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooke, Steven J.; Arlinghaus, Robert; Bartley, Devin M.; Beard, T. Douglas; Cowx, Ian G.; Essington, Timothy E.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; Watson, Reg

    2014-01-01

    Although inland and marine environments, their fisheries, fishery managers, and the realm-specific management approaches are often different, there are a surprising number of similarities that frequently go unrecognized. We contend that there is much to be gained by greater cross-fertilization and exchange of ideas and strategies between realms and the people who manage them. The purpose of this paper is to provide examples of the potential or demonstrated benefits of working across aquatic boundaries for enhanced sustainable management of the world’s fisheries resources. Examples include the need to (1) engage in habitat management and protection as the foundation for fisheries, (2) rethink institutional arrangements and management for open-access fisheries systems, (3) establish “reference points” and harvest control rules, (4) engage in integrated management approaches, (5) reap conservation benefits from the link to fish as food, and (6) reframe conservation and management of fish to better engage the public and industry. Cross-fertilization and knowledge transfer between realms could be realized using environment-independent curricula and symposia, joint scientific advisory councils for management, integrated development projects, and cross-realm policy dialogue. Given the interdependence of marine and inland fisheries, promoting discussion between the realms has the potential to promote meaningful advances in managing global fisheries.

  15. National scenario of biogas generation: an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Sudha; Katiyar, M.K.; Khan, M.A.; Singh, Amarik

    1995-01-01

    Many developing countries are encouraging the installation of biogas plant in rural sector and industrial sector to meet the demand of energy. India is one of the pioneer countries in the world who initiated adaptation of biogas technology in rural sector about 35 years ago. In India Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Energy and Planning Commission are promoting the research and popularization programme, related to biogas technology. 4 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

  16. Multiple Scenario Generation of Subsurface Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cordua, Knud Skou

    of information is obeyed such that no unknown assumptions and biases influence the solution to the inverse problem. This involves a definition of the probabilistically formulated inverse problem, a discussion about how prior models can be established based on statistical information from sample models...... of the probabilistic formulation of the inverse problem. This function is based on an uncertainty model that describes the uncertainties related to the observed data. In a similar way, a formulation of the prior probability distribution that takes into account uncertainties related to the sample model statistics...... similar to observation uncertainties. We refer to the effect of these approximations as modeling errors. Examples that show how the modeling error is estimated are provided. Moreover, it is shown how these effects can be taken into account in the formulation of the posterior probability distribution...

  17. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

    2008-01-01

    ...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

  18. Refined control of cell stemness allowed animal evolution in the oxic realm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hammarlund, Emma U; von Stedingk, Kristoffer; Påhlman, Sven

    2018-01-01

    Animal diversification on Earth has long been presumed to be associated with the increasing extent of oxic niches. Here, we challenge that view. We start with the fact that hypoxia (cells continuously-and paradoxically......-regenerate animal tissue in oxygenated settings. Novel insights from tumour biology illuminate how cell stemness nevertheless can be achieved through the action of oxygen-sensing transcription factors in oxygenated, regenerating tissue. We suggest that these hypoxia-inducible transcription factors provided animals...... with unprecedented control over cell stemness that allowed them to cope with fluctuating oxygen concentrations. Thus, a refinement of the cellular hypoxia-response machinery enabled cell stemness at oxic conditions and, then, animals to evolve into the oxic realm. This view on the onset of animal diversification...

  19. TACKLED - THE IMMERSION OF SOCIAL WORK PROFESSION INTOTHE REALM OF HIGH COLLISION SPORTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiffanie-Victoria Jones

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Imagine a day when social work is tackled by high collision sports. Athletesactually seek services from social workers becausesocial work profession isthoroughly immersed in the realm of these sports.Presently, that image is justthat – a remote idea that, if realized, would alterthe landscape of the field ofmental health, for the benefit of professional athletes who play high collisionsports. Undergirding this paper is a case study ofa professional athlete whoexperienced the worst case of sports-related braindamage presently documented.This paper includes a detailed analysis of social work core values as applied toathletes. As well, mental illness and psychosocialfactors, specific to athletes isanalyzed. Ultimately, this paper seeks to explorethe social workers’ role inserving the mental health needs of an unconventional clientele – professionalathletes in high collision sports.

  20. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  1. Old Nordic and Christian elements in Saami ideas about the realm of the dead

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olof Pettersson

    1987-01-01

    Full Text Available The fact that a word or concept has been borrowed from outside does not mean that the original content, the original ideas which the loan word in question expresses, have also been adopted. This is by no means the case when it is a question of abstract words and notions, such as the afterlife. A word, an idea, a custom is taken over but filled with new content; in its new context it acquires a genuinely Saami conceptual load, which has its original domiciliary rights in Saami, north Eurasian culture. The present brief notes on the Nordic and Christian influence on Saami ideas about the realm of the dead proceed from the Saami religion as a whole, examining and explaining it from an external perspective: what connecting-points are there in the "original" mother tradition for the new ideas which have been adopted over the course of time and which have been grafted on to the old? The first and fundamental starting-point for the study of the meeting of the Saami religion with the old Nordic and Christian ones will be the Saami religion itself in its Finno-Ugric and North Euroasiancontext and not the old Norse or Christian beliefs. The question is what has inspired ideas: Are they ideas which have emerged from the Saamis' own religion, or are these ideas the result of old Norse/Christian influence? As far as old Norse influence is concerned, its relevance seems to be limited to the saivo concept. The sources for Saami religion which we possess are not primary sources, which go back to the Lapps themselves; they have been assembled by outsiders. Those who compiled these records were "children of their time" and bound by the conceptual models of the day and by the frames of reference of their religion—Christianity. The Saami realm of death, Jabmeaimo, is Saami in character, with certain Christian elements (purgatory, heaven–hell, heavenly god–devil.

  2. G-REALM: A lake/reservoir monitoring tool for drought monitoring and water resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkett, C. M.; Ricko, M.; Beckley, B. D.; Yang, X.; Tetrault, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    G-REALM is a NASA/USDA funded operational program offering water-level products for lakes and reservoirs and these are currently derived from the NASA/CNES Topex/Jason series of satellite radar altimeters. The main stakeholder is the USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) though many other end-users utilize the products for a variety of interdisciplinary science and operational programs. The FAS utilize the products within their CropExplorer Decision Support System (DSS) to help assess irrigation potential, and to monitor both short-term (agricultural) and longer-term (hydrological) drought conditions. There is increasing demand for a more global monitoring service that in particular, captures the variations in the smallest (1 to 100km2) reservoirs and water holdings in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, water resources are critical to both agriculture and regional security. A recent G-REALM 10-day resolution product upgrade and expansion has allowed for more accurate lake level products to be released and for a greater number of water bodies to be monitored. The next program phase focuses on the exploration of the enhanced radar altimeter data sets from the Cryosat-2 and Sentinel-3 missions with their improved spatial resolution, and the expansion of the system to the monitoring of 1,000 water bodies across the globe. In addition, a new element, the monitoring of surface water levels in wetland zones, is also being introduced. This aims to satisfy research and stakeholder requirements with respect to programs examining the links between inland fisheries catch potential and declining water levels, and to those monitoring the delicate balance between water resources, agriculture, and fisheries management in arid basins.

  3. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  4. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  5. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  6. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  7. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  8. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  9. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  10. Implications for anomalous mantle pressure and dynamic topography from lithospheric stress patterns in the North Atlantic Realm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiffer, Christian; Nielsen, Søren Bom

    2016-01-01

    With convergent plate boundaries at some distance, the sources of the lithospheric stress field of the North Atlantic Realm are mainly mantle tractions at the base of the lithosphere, lithospheric density structure and topography. Given this, we estimate horizontal deviatoric stresses using a wel...

  11. Utilizing the Six Realms of Meaning in Improving Campus Standardized Test Scores through Team Teaching and Strategic Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Rosnisha D.; Kritsonis, William Allan

    2009-01-01

    This article will seek to utilize Dr. William Allan Kritsonis' book "Ways of Knowing Through the Realms of Meaning" (2007) as a framework to improve a campus's standardized test scores, more specifically, their TAKS (Texas Assessment of Knowledge and Skills) scores. Many campuses have an improvement plan, also known as a Campus…

  12. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  13. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  14. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  15. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  16. Landscape and Urban Governance: Participatory Planning of the Public Realm in Saida, Lebanon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jala Makhzoumi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The political shift in Lebanon since the 1990s towards market-led development has encouraged the incremental appropriation of public spaces and state lands, and their conversion into gated, monitored enclaves that serve a privileged few. The process disregards the role of the urban public realm and undermines its potential as an inclusive space and enabling platform for urban governance. This article advocates a participatory approach to urban development, one that engages local stakeholders, institutions, and the public at large as active partners working towards sustainable urban futures. We draw on a case study in Saida, Lebanon, to illustrate participatory planning methods and demonstrate the role of landscape architects in enabling community-led development that is place responsive and sensitive to local narratives of heritage and identity. The project’s participatory methodology and landscape architecture’s expansive framing, the paper argues, democratizes the planning process and contributes to urban governance that empowers local authorities and local stakeholders in the face of privatization and market-led development.

  17. High-precision mass measurements in the realm of the deformed shell closure N=152

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eibach, Martin Andreas

    2013-12-04

    The nuclear masses reflect the sum of all interactions inside a nucleus. Their precise knowledge can be used to benchmark nuclear mass models and to gain nuclear structure information. Penning-trap mass spectrometers have proven their potential to obtain lowest uncertainties. Uniquely located at a nuclear reactor, the double Penning-trap mass spectrometer TRIGA-TRAP is dedicated to measurements in the neutron-rich region. For a gain in sensitivity a non-destructive detection system for single ion mass measurements was adopted. This includes the implementation of a narrow band-pass filter tuned to the heavy ion cyclotron frequency as well as a cryogenic low-noise amplifier. For on-line mass measurements, the laser ablation ion source was equipped with a newly developed miniature radiofrequency quadrupole trap in order to improve the extraction efficiency. A more economic use of the radioactive material enabled mass measurements using only 10{sup 15} atoms of target material. New mass measurements were performed within this work in the realm of the deformed shell closure N=152. Their implementation into the atomic-mass evaluation improved the uncertainty of more than 80 nuclides in the heavy mass region and simultaneously shifted the absolute mass of two α decay chains.

  18. Quirky quarks. A cartoon guide to the fascinating realm of physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahr, Benjamin; Lemmer, Boris; Piccolo, Rina

    2016-07-01

    Do you love quantum physics, cosmology, and the humor behind the popular television show The Big Bang Theory? Have you been on the lookout for a fun, non-technical explanation of the science behind things like time travel, wormholes, antimatter, and dark energy? You'll find all of that, and more, inside this fact-filled, cartoon-packed book. In Quirky Quarks: A Cartoon Guide to the Fascinating Realm of Physics you'll get: The latest science behind the mysteries of our universe explained in common everyday language. A major dose of cartoons, comics, and humor. A good grasp on the often-bizarre nature of reality. Start reading and you'll find that hard science does not have to be hard. Whether you're a teacher, a physicist, or just a lover of the curious, this is the book that delivers the facts in an engaging and entertaining cartoon world inhabited by two dogs, a cat, and some very quirky quarks which you might know from The Particle Zoo. With cutting edge science articles by physicists Boris Lemmer and Benjamin Bahr, and drawings by cartoonist Rina Piccolo, this may be the most fun science reading you're likely to find out there.

  19. Quirky quarks. A cartoon guide to the fascinating realm of physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahr, Benjamin; Lemmer, Boris; Piccolo, Rina

    2016-01-01

    Do you love quantum physics, cosmology, and the humor behind the popular television show The Big Bang Theory? Have you been on the lookout for a fun, non-technical explanation of the science behind things like time travel, wormholes, antimatter, and dark energy? You'll find all of that, and more, inside this fact-filled, cartoon-packed book. In Quirky Quarks: A Cartoon Guide to the Fascinating Realm of Physics you'll get: The latest science behind the mysteries of our universe explained in common everyday language. A major dose of cartoons, comics, and humor. A good grasp on the often-bizarre nature of reality. Start reading and you'll find that hard science does not have to be hard. Whether you're a teacher, a physicist, or just a lover of the curious, this is the book that delivers the facts in an engaging and entertaining cartoon world inhabited by two dogs, a cat, and some very quirky quarks which you might know from The Particle Zoo. With cutting edge science articles by physicists Boris Lemmer and Benjamin Bahr, and drawings by cartoonist Rina Piccolo, this may be the most fun science reading you're likely to find out there.

  20. Climate science and the transfer of knowledge to public and political realms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bray, D. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik; Storch, H. von

    1999-11-01

    This paper presents the results of a survey of the perspectives of climate scientists on the topic of global warming. It addresses both internal and external elements of the science. A total of 412 responses from climate scientists in Canada. USA and Germany are analyzed. Differences among those groups with higher levels of involvement with policy makers, with the media, and the less vocal members of the scientific community are the focus of this paper. Statistically significant differences were found among these three groups on a number of pertinent issues. These differences were more often among those areas which were beyond the areas of the scientists` areas of expertise. More precisely differences were found in: The assessment that global warming is a process already underway, the nature of the impacts of climate change, the knowledge transfer process, and the conduct of the climate sciences. These perspectives are of considerable importance for they relate to the transfer of scientific knowledge to the public and political realms. In short, this paper contributes to the discussion of the socio-scientific construction of the climate change issue. (orig.) 11 refs.

  1. Synthetic biology stretching the realms of possibility in wine yeast research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagtap, Umesh B; Jadhav, Jyoti P; Bapat, Vishwas A; Pretorius, Isak S

    2017-07-03

    It took several millennia to fully understand the scientific intricacies of the process through which grape juice is turned into wine. This yeast-driven fermentation process is still being perfected and advanced today. Motivated by ever-changing consumer preferences and the belief that the 'best' wine is yet to be made, numerous approaches are being pursued to improve the process of yeast fermentation and the quality of wine. Central to recent enhancements in winemaking processes and wine quality is the development of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast strains with improved robustness, fermentation efficiencies and sensory properties. The emerging science of Synthetic Biology - including genome engineering and DNA editing technologies - is taking yeast strain development into a totally new realm of possibility. The first example of how future wine strain development might be impacted by these new 'history-making' Synthetic Biology technologies, is the de novo production of the raspberry ketone aroma compound, 4-[4-hydroxyphenyl]butan-2-one, in a wine yeast containing a synthetic DNA cassette. This article explores how this breakthrough and the imminent outcome of the international Yeast 2.0 (or Sc2.0) project, aimed at the synthesis of the entire genome of a laboratory strain of S. cerevisiae, might accelerate the design of improved wine yeasts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  3. Potential power density and power generation of wind parks. Share of regional wind power generation in consumption for a ''2% scenario''; Potenzielle Leistungsdichte und Stromerzeugung von Windparks. Anteil der regionalen Windstromerzeugung am Verbrauch fuer ein ''2 %-Szenario''

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konetschny, Claudia; Schmid, Tobias; Jetter, Fabian [Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft (FfE) e.V., Muenchen (Germany)

    2017-05-15

    Targets for wind energy use are given in different units. In addition to the number of plants, the power and the annual electricity generation, an information of a surface to be used for the use of wind power has become increasingly established. However, the relationships between area consumption, installed power and generated current are not approximately linear. On the basis of a small-scale modeling of the addition of wind energy installations using the wind resource tools WiSTl developed by the Research Center for Energy Economics (FfE), the article provides recommendations for the conversion of the area identified. In addition, the share of electricity generation based on a 2% scenario of power generation from wind power plants of the electricity consumption will be determined for each Federal State. [German] Ziele zur Windenergienutzung werden in verschiedenen Einheiten angegeben. Neben der Anzahl an Anlagen, der Leistung und der jaehrlichen Stromerzeugung hat sich zunehmend die Angabe einer fuer die Windkraftnutzung auszuweisenden Flaeche etabliert. Die Zusammenhaenge zwischen Flaechenverbrauch, installierter Leistung und erzeugter Strommenge sind jedoch nicht annaehernd linear. Anhand einer kleinteiligen Modeliierung des Zubaus von Windenergieanlagen mithilfe des von der Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft (FfE) entwickelten Windszenario-Tools WiSTl gibt der Artikel Empfehlungen zur Umrechnung der ausgewiesenen Flaeche. Zusaetzlich wird basierend auf einem 2 %-Szenario der Anteil der Stromerzeugung aus Windenergieanlagen am Stromverbrauch je Bundesland bestimmt.

  4. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  5. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  6. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  7. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  8. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  9. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  10. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  11. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  12. Climate change scenario data for the national parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

  13. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  14. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  15. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  16. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  17. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  18. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  19. Hanford groundwater scenario studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnett, R.C.; Gephart, R.E.; Deju, R.A.; Cole, C.R.; Ahlstrom, S.W.

    1977-05-01

    This report documents the results of two Hanford groundwater scenario studies. The first study examines the hydrologic impact of increased groundwater recharge resulting from agricultural development in the Cold Creek Valley located west of the Hanford Reservation. The second study involves recovering liquid radioactive waste which has leaked into the groundwater flow system from a hypothetical buried tank containing high-level radioactive waste. The predictive and control capacity of the onsite Hanford modeling technology is used to evaluate both scenarios. The results of the first study indicate that Cold Creek Valley irrigationis unlikely to cause significant changes in the water table underlying the high-level waste areas or in the movement of radionuclides already in the groundwater. The hypothetical tank leak study showed that an active response (in this case waste recovery) can be modeled and is a possible alternative to passive monitoring of radionuclide movement in the unlikely event that high-level waste is introduced into the groundwater

  20. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  1. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  2. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  3. Comparing recent uranium supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, N.; Gufler, K.

    2014-01-01

    For more than one decade – even after the Fukushima accidents - an increase in global nuclear energy generation capacity is widely expected. At the same time a variety of uranium supply scenarios were published by industry, academics or international organizations, drawing different pictures of future uranium supply. They were created with the background of a uranium market facing several challenges. First an excursion in the uranium market price, in 2007, then reduced nuclear growth expectations after 2011, at least in non-Asian countries, also implying considerable changes to the supply side. For this publication a meta-study was carried out identifying, evaluating and comparing different recent scenarios on the availability of uranium. While there are some differences in the frame conditions (e.g. the expected uranium demand, the time fame, the considered mining projects,..), there are also notable similarities in these scenarios. This concerns long lead times for mine openings as well as the dependence on large mining projects (e.g. Olympic Dam, Cigar Lake). Generally, a decline in production in about 10 years is assumed, and thus the necessity of the timely development of mining projects is pointed out. In addition the omission of uranium from Russian nuclear weapons and the chances of keeping the changes in secondary supplies in balance with primary production have been widely discussed. Here, the production growth in Kazakhstan but also the role of the current market situation are central aspects. As another aspect the possible contribution from unconventional resources is of interest, particularly against the background of rising production costs for conventional resources. Finally, it shall be reflected how well older scenarios were able to map the reality and which trends could or could not be anticipated. It is relevant to identify which aspects in the development of mining capacities are essential for security of supply, and can therefore be regarded

  4. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  5. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  6. Scenarios for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: 'Technology on the throne' (market rule/high growth); 'Intense competition' (market rule/low growth); 'Monopoly takes over' (political rule/high growth); and 'Green local society' (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  7. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  8. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  9. Electro-generating renewable energies: which potential by 2025/2030? The Ademe's scenario: is its treatment of the electric mix credible for the treatment of the intermittency of renewable energies, is its cost acceptable, are its consumption predictions realistic?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flocard, Hubert; Nifenecker, Herve; Perves, Jean Pierre

    2012-01-01

    This document proposes a critical point of view on the scenario developed by the ADEME on the potential of electricity production by renewable energies by 2025/2030. According to this scenario, nuclear power is divided by two and the fleet of intermittent renewable energies (wind and photovoltaic) is multiplied by seven. This report assesses the investments costs associated with this intermittent fleet and with a necessary adaptation of the high voltage and distribution grids. It also outlines that massive imports of energy could be necessary when the production of these renewable sources is at its low point. It notices that stopping half of the nuclear fleet will entail a loss of revenues which will not take benefit of a reduction of greenhouse gas

  10. ILC Operating Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barklow, T.; Brau, J.; Fujii, K.; Gao, J.; List, J.; Walker, N.; Yokoya, K.; Collaboration: ILC Parameters Joint Working Group

    2015-06-15

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision energy of the ILC and expand the scientific impact of the ILC physics program. It is envisioned that a decision on a possible energy upgrade would be taken near the end of the twenty year period considered in this report.

  11. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  12. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  13. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  14. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  15. How demographic patterns and social policies shape interdependence among lives in the family realm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dykstra Pearl A.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Our starting point is that a social psychological approach dominates the literature on interdependent or “linked” lives (Elder, 1994. We argue that interdependence is not only social-psychological, but is also structured on a macro-level. More specifically, we illustrate ways in which demographic change, such as increased co-longevity, creates different opportunities for interdependence for men and women. In addition, we draw attention to the role of national policies, distinguishing ways in which legislation mandates generational interdependence (e.g., legal obligations to provide financial support, blocks generational interdependence (e.g., grandparents not granted the right to raise grandchildren when parents cannot provide adequate care; migration laws not granting temporary visits to enable the provision of care, generates generational interdependence (e.g., daddy quota, and lightens generational interdependence (e.g., less reliance on grandparental care in Northern and Western Europe due to public support to parents of young children. We pay specific attention to childless men and women, questioning the primacy assigned to kinship ties in health care and long-term support policies. Gender receives consistent consideration throughout the paper.

  16. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  17. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  18. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  19. Investment scenarios for Chinese power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    An analysis is provided of returns for investment in power plants in China and India. Three sample investment scenarios are compared to illustrate the relative merits of each financing arrangement. The best returns would seem to be offered by a mix of debt and equity financing. The potential problem of gradual currency depreciation can be overcome by early cash payments. Foreign investment in China's power generation industry would be more readily forthcoming if easier access to debt finance were available. (UK)

  20. The changing nutrition scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalan, C

    2013-09-01

    The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and 'Green Revolution fatigue'. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  1. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  2. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  3. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  4. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

  5. Launching the chaotic realm of iso-fractals: A short remark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Schmidt, Nathan [Department of Mathematics, Boise State University, 1910 University Drive, Boise, ID 83725 (United States); Katebi, Reza [Department of Physics, California State University in Fullerton, 800 North State College Boulevard, Fullerton, CA 92831 (United States); Corda, Christian [Institute for Theoretical Physics and Advanced Mathematics Einstein-Galilei (IFM), Via Santa Gonda 14, 59100 Prato (Italy)

    2015-03-10

    In this brief note, we introduce the new, emerging sub-discipline of iso-fractals by highlighting and discussing the preliminary results of recent works. First, we note the abundance of fractal, chaotic, non-linear, and self-similar structures in nature while emphasizing the importance of studying such systems because fractal geometry is the language of chaos. Second, we outline the iso-fractal generalization of the Mandelbrot set to exemplify the newly generated Mandelbrot iso-sets. Third, we present the cutting-edge notion of dynamic iso-spaces and explain how a mathematical space can be iso-topically lifted with iso-unit functions that (continuously or discretely) change; in the discrete case examples, we mention that iteratively generated sequences like Fibonacci’s numbers and (the complex moduli of) Mandelbrot’s numbers can supply a deterministic chain of iso-units to construct an ordered series of (magnified and/or de-magnified) iso-spaces that are locally iso-morphic. Fourth, we consider the initiation of iso-fractals with Inopin’s holographic ring (IHR) topology and fractional statistics for 2D and 3D iso-spaces. In total, the reviewed iso-fractal results are a significant improvement over traditional fractals because the application of Santilli’s iso-mathematics arms us an extra degree of freedom for attacking problems in chaos. Finally, we conclude by proposing some questions and ideas for future research work.

  6. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  7. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  8. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  9. Under consumers' scrutiny - an investigation into consumers' attitudes and concerns about nudging in the realm of health behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junghans, Astrid F; Cheung, Tracy T L; De Ridder, Denise D T

    2015-04-09

    Nudging strategies have recently attracted attention from scholars and policy makers for their potential in influencing people's behaviors on large scales. But is the fact that nudges do not forbid any choice-options or significantly alter people's economic incentives sufficient to conclude that nudges should be implemented? While this is discussed amongst scholars from various disciplines the voices of consumers, the target-group of nudges, remain unheard. Since understanding their knowledge about nudging and their opinions on being nudged are crucial for the evaluation of the moral appropriateness of nudging, the current study examines consumers' knowledge of and attitudes toward nudging in general and the realm of health behavior. In this qualitative investigation in-depth semi-structured interviews with UK consumers were conducted to examine consumers' attitudes to four domains of inquiry around which the scholarly discussions about nudging have revolved: consumers' approval of nudging, consumers' views on the origin of nudges, consumers' perceived effectiveness of nudging, and consumers' concerns about manipulative aspects of nudging. Interviews revealed that consumers are largely unfamiliar with the concept of nudging altogether. Once defined and explained to them most consumers approve of the concept, especially in the realm of health behavior, given particular conditions: 1. Nudges should be designed for benefiting individuals and society; 2. consumers comprehend the decision-making context and the reasoning behind the promotion of the targeted behavior. Interviews revealed very limited concerns with manipulative aspects of nudges. These findings call for better information-management to ensure consumers knowledge of nudges and awareness of their current implementation. Under that condition the findings encourage the implementation of nudges benefitting individuals and society in domains that consumers comprehend, such as health behaviors. Further research

  10. The new socio-economic scenarios for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guivarch, C.; Rozenberg, J.

    2013-01-01

    The scientific community is developing a new generation of scenarios to inform the choices we have to make when it comes to responding to climate change. This new generation of scenarios integrates more fully the mechanisms that regulate climate and provides insights to spatial and temporal resolutions unexplored in previous exercises. In addition, it gives a framework for integrating explicit climate policies for mitigation and adaptation, which allows assessing the benefits and costs of climate policies in different socio-economic scenarios. Finally, it introduces a new way of working that strengthens the collaboration between different research communities on climate change. (authors)

  11. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-01-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario

  12. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  13. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  14. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  15. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  16. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  17. International scenarios of the Venezuelan oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinoso, Felipe; Irsay, Jorge E.

    1999-01-01

    The times of stability of the energy business, which characterized the 50s and the 60s came to their end in the 70s. From that moment on, new times have become times of quick changes and high uncertainty. In order to minimize the impact of the surprises that the future may bring, and so decrease the managers' decision making risk, many companies use the scenario planning process. The end purpose of scenario planning is the creation of an organization that will adapted to changes, a learning organization, that is able to identify the business environment un knows and to use this knowledge as one of its advantages. The present article shows the scenarios generated for the Venezuelan oil industry's strategic planning exercise for the 1999-2015 period. Theses scenarios are Consensus and Harmony, Regions and Environment, Conflicts and Decadence and Pragmatic Community. It is concluded from them that oil business success would be supported by differentiation as a secure, trusted and low cost producer; early oil and gas opportunities identification; Hemispherical integration and/or bilateral commercial agreements; oil and gas business portfolio diversification; and diversification to state-of-the-art technologies for renewable forms of energy

  18. Dispersal similarly shapes both population genetics and community patterns in the marine realm

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem

    2016-06-27

    Dispersal plays a key role to connect populations and, if limited, is one of the main processes to maintain and generate regional biodiversity. According to neutral theories of molecular evolution and biodiversity, dispersal limitation of propagules and population stochasticity are integral to shaping both genetic and community structure. We conducted a parallel analysis of biological connectivity at genetic and community levels in marine groups with different dispersal traits. We compiled large data sets of population genetic structure (98 benthic macroinvertebrate and 35 planktonic species) and biogeographic data (2193 benthic macroinvertebrate and 734 planktonic species). We estimated dispersal distances from population genetic data (i.e., FST vs. geographic distance) and from β-diversity at the community level. Dispersal distances ranked the biological groups in the same order at both genetic and community levels, as predicted by organism dispersal ability and seascape connectivity: macrozoobenthic species without dispersing larvae, followed by macrozoobenthic species with dispersing larvae and plankton (phyto- and zooplankton). This ranking order is associated with constraints to the movement of macrozoobenthos within the seabed compared with the pelagic habitat. We showed that dispersal limitation similarly determines the connectivity degree of communities and populations, supporting the predictions of neutral theories in marine biodiversity patterns.

  19. Pangea break-up: from passive to active margin in the Colombian Caribbean Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Cristhian; Kammer, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The break-up of Western Pangea has lead to a back-arc type tectonic setting along the periphery of Gondwana, with the generation of syn-rift basins filled with sedimentary and volcanic sequences during the Middle to Late Triassic. The Indios and Corual formations in the Santa Marta massif of Northern Andes were deposited in this setting. In this contribution we elaborate a stratigraphic model for both the Indios and Corual formations, based on the description and classification of sedimentary facies and their architecture and a provenance analysis. Furthermore, geotectonic environments for volcanic and volcanoclastic rock of both units are postulated. The Indios Formation is a shallow-marine syn-rift basin fill and contains gravity flows deposits. This unit is divided into three segments; the lower and upper segments are related to fan-deltas, while the middle segment is associated to offshore deposits with lobe incursions of submarine fans. Volcanoclastic and volcanic rocks of the Indios and Corual formations are bimodal in composition and are associated to alkaline basalts. Volcanogenic deposits comprise debris, pyroclastic and lava flows of both effusive and explosive eruptions. These units record multiple phases of rifting and reveal together a first stage in the break-up of Pangea during Middle and Late Triassic in North Colombia.

  20. Dispersal similarly shapes both population genetics and community patterns in the marine realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chust, Guillem; Villarino, Ernesto; Chenuil, Anne; Irigoien, Xabier; Bizsel, Nihayet; Bode, Antonio; Broms, Cecilie; Claus, Simon; Fernández de Puelles, María L.; Fonda-Umani, Serena; Hoarau, Galice; Mazzocchi, Maria G.; Mozetič, Patricija; Vandepitte, Leen; Veríssimo, Helena; Zervoudaki, Soultana; Borja, Angel

    2016-06-01

    Dispersal plays a key role to connect populations and, if limited, is one of the main processes to maintain and generate regional biodiversity. According to neutral theories of molecular evolution and biodiversity, dispersal limitation of propagules and population stochasticity are integral to shaping both genetic and community structure. We conducted a parallel analysis of biological connectivity at genetic and community levels in marine groups with different dispersal traits. We compiled large data sets of population genetic structure (98 benthic macroinvertebrate and 35 planktonic species) and biogeographic data (2193 benthic macroinvertebrate and 734 planktonic species). We estimated dispersal distances from population genetic data (i.e., FST vs. geographic distance) and from β-diversity at the community level. Dispersal distances ranked the biological groups in the same order at both genetic and community levels, as predicted by organism dispersal ability and seascape connectivity: macrozoobenthic species without dispersing larvae, followed by macrozoobenthic species with dispersing larvae and plankton (phyto- and zooplankton). This ranking order is associated with constraints to the movement of macrozoobenthos within the seabed compared with the pelagic habitat. We showed that dispersal limitation similarly determines the connectivity degree of communities and populations, supporting the predictions of neutral theories in marine biodiversity patterns.

  1. Dispersal similarly shapes both population genetics and community patterns in the marine realm

    KAUST Repository

    Chust, Guillem; Villarino, Ernesto; Chenuil, Anne; Irigoien, Xabier; Bizsel, Nihayet; Bode, Antonio; Broms, Cecilie; Claus, Simon; Ferná ndez de Puelles, Marí a L.; Fonda-Umani, Serena; Hoarau, Galice; Mazzocchi, Maria G.; Mozetič, Patricija; Vandepitte, Leen; Verí ssimo, Helena; Zervoudaki, Soultana; Borja, Angel

    2016-01-01

    Dispersal plays a key role to connect populations and, if limited, is one of the main processes to maintain and generate regional biodiversity. According to neutral theories of molecular evolution and biodiversity, dispersal limitation of propagules and population stochasticity are integral to shaping both genetic and community structure. We conducted a parallel analysis of biological connectivity at genetic and community levels in marine groups with different dispersal traits. We compiled large data sets of population genetic structure (98 benthic macroinvertebrate and 35 planktonic species) and biogeographic data (2193 benthic macroinvertebrate and 734 planktonic species). We estimated dispersal distances from population genetic data (i.e., FST vs. geographic distance) and from β-diversity at the community level. Dispersal distances ranked the biological groups in the same order at both genetic and community levels, as predicted by organism dispersal ability and seascape connectivity: macrozoobenthic species without dispersing larvae, followed by macrozoobenthic species with dispersing larvae and plankton (phyto- and zooplankton). This ranking order is associated with constraints to the movement of macrozoobenthos within the seabed compared with the pelagic habitat. We showed that dispersal limitation similarly determines the connectivity degree of communities and populations, supporting the predictions of neutral theories in marine biodiversity patterns.

  2. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  3. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  4. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  5. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  6. U. S. electricity shortfall: three scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanderslice, T.A.

    1979-01-01

    Scenarios in which no nuclear-generating capacity is added between 1981 and 1985 and the goal of doubling coal utilization is only 50% successful show electric power shortfalls over most of the U.S. by 1985, with the industrial central regions the hardest hit. Since conservation alone cannot carry the nation through a transition from oil dependence to coal and nuclear, the author stresses the importance of identifying the consequences of such a shortfall. General Electric's scenarios are projected for shortfalls in energy supply, electric power, and oil and natural gas to determine the effect on gross national product, business investment, production growth, inflation foreign exchange rates, and employment levels. Near-term crises in power plant shortages are indicated by the energy models.

  7. Hydrological scenarios for two selected Alpine catchments for the 21st century using a stochastic weather generator and enhanced process understanding for modelling of seasonal snow and glacier melt for improved water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strasser, Ulrich; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dabhi, Hetal; Dubrovsky, Martin; Hanzer, Florian; Marke, Thomas; Oberguggenberger, Michael; Rössler, Ole; Schmieder, Jan; Rotach, Mathias; Stötter, Johann; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    The overall objective of HydroGeM³ is to quantify and assess both water demand and water supply in two coupled human-environment mountain systems, i.e. Lütschine in Switzerland and Ötztaler Ache in Austria. Special emphasis is laid on the analysis of possible future seasonal water scarcity. The hydrological response of high Alpine catchments is characterised by a strong seasonal variability with low runoff in winter and high runoff in spring and summer. Climate change is expected to cause a seasonal shift of the runoff regime and thus it has significant impact on both amount and timing of the release of the available water resources, and thereof, possible future water conflicts. In order to identify and quantify the contribution of snow and ice melt as well as rain to runoff, streamflow composition will be analysed with natural tracers. The results of the field investigations will help to improve the snow and ice melt and runoff modules of two selected hydrological models (i.e. AMUNDSEN and WaSiM) which are used to investigate the seasonal water availability under current and future climate conditions. Together, they comprise improved descriptions of boundary layer and surface melt processes (AMUNDSEN), and of streamflow runoff generation (WaSiM). Future meteorological forcing for the modelling until the end of the century will be provided by both a stochastic multi-site weather generator, and downscaled climate model output. Both approches will use EUROCORDEX data as input. The water demand in the selected study areas is quantified for the relevant societal sectors, e.g. agriculture, hydropower generation and (winter) tourism. The comparison of water availability and water demand under current and future climate conditions will allow the identification of possible seasonal bottlenecks of future water supply and resulting conflicts. Thus these investigations can provide a quantitative basis for the development of strategies for sustainable water management in

  8. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  9. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  10. CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

    2015-01-01

    The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

  11. Reading between the lines. Czesław Miłosz’s Native Realm. A Search for Self-Definition and its English/American translation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bartłomiej Biegajło

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to discuss the problem of translating Polish prose, based on an analysis of a selection of samples taken from Czesław Miłosz’s Native Realm. A Search for Self-Definition translated by Catherine S. Leach. The book documents specific relations between the Western and the Eastern Europe determined by historical provenance of the realms in question. The dichotomy of the collective European history has a profound influence on the reception of Polish literature among the Western audience. Native Realm showcases the issue perfectly – it is interesting in terms of its careful account of the historical and social development of the Continent. The perception of reality is conditioned by an inherent dissimilarity of experiences between the West and the East. The intention of Miłosz was to provide an analysis of them and produce an insightful book addressed specifically to the Western readership. My discussion is an attempt to prove that the endeavour is doomed to failure due to the intrinsic differences between the cultures involved, as cultural inheritance determines the interpretation of historical facts and prompts dissimilar connotations. In the case of Native Realm, on the one hand, we encounter Miłosz’s vision/imagination that is irreversibly rooted in the Slavic way of looking at things and, on the other, the distinctively dissimilar Western vantage point. Translating these differences appears to be a major challenge for any translator.

  12. Palaeoenvironments and palaeoceanography changes across the Jurassic/Cretaceous boundary in the Arctic realm: case study of the Nordvik section (north Siberia, Russia)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zakharov, V. A.; Rogov, M. A.; Dzyuba, O. S.; Žák, Karel; Košťák, M.; Pruner, Petr; Skupien, P.; Chadima, Martin; Mazuch, M.; Nikitenko, B. L.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 33, 25 March (2014) ISSN 0800-0395 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/07/1365 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30130516 Institutional support: RVO:67985831 Keywords : biodiversity * stable isotopes * J/K boundary * Arctic Realm * palaeoceanography Subject RIV: DB - Geology ; Mineralogy Impact factor: 1.141, year: 2014

  13. National Agenda: A Holistic Approach towards Development of the Campus Improvement Plan Using "Ways of Knowing through the Realms of Meaning" as the Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloud, Michelle; Kritsonis, William Allan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to examine "Ways of Knowing Through the Realms of Meaning" (2007) by Dr. William Allan Kritsonis as a framework that transformational educational leaders can use to guide members of the Site Based Decision Making Team through development of the Campus Improvement Plan. The Campus Improvement Plan serves as a blueprint for…

  14. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  15. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  16. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  17. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  18. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  19. Seeking a Utopia in the Past to Endure the Present: A Jungian Reading of The Realms of Gold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram R. Sistani

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts a Jungian approach to Margaret Drabble’s novel The Realms of Gold. Jungian reading has been taken up to unravel the distinctive characteristics which make this novel so unique and popular. The focus of the paper is to classify the main characters of the novel in terms of their psychological types.  In this novel from the beginning the reader is introduced to an atmosphere which is related to the personality of the main character Frances Wingate. Her thoughts are introduced to the readers in form of monologues. By the usage of these monologues and the narrator’s judgments on the characters their psychological types can be implied. The protagonist is compared with the other major characters to illuminate to what extent different types can get along with each other. In Jungian psychology knowing about our psychological type is a crucial issue in the process of individuation. It gets more significance when it comes to opposite sex relationships or generally any kinds of interaction.

  20. From the Consulting Room to the Court Room? Taking the Clinical Model of Responsibility Without Blame into the Legal Realm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Nicola; Pickard, Hanna

    2013-03-01

    Within contemporary penal philosophy, the view that punishment can only be justified if the offender is a moral agent who is responsible and hence blameworthy for their offence is one of the few areas on which a consensus prevails. In recent literature, this precept is associated with the retributive tradition, in the modern form of 'just deserts'. Turning its back on the rehabilitative ideal, this tradition forges a strong association between the justification of punishment, the attribution of responsible agency in relation to the offence, and the appropriateness of blame. By contrast, effective clinical treatment of disorders of agency employs a conceptual framework in which ideas of responsibility and blameworthiness are clearly separated from what we call 'affective blame': the range of hostile, negative attitudes and emotions that are typical human responses to criminal or immoral conduct. We argue that taking this clinical model of 'responsibility without blame' into the legal realm offers new possibilities. Theoretically, it allows for the reconciliation of the idea of 'just deserts' with a rehabilitative ideal in penal philosophy. Punishment can be reconceived as consequences-typically negative but occasionally not, so long as they are serious and appropriate to the crime and the context-imposed in response to, by reason of, and in proportion to responsibility and blameworthiness, but without the hard treatment and stigma typical of affective blame. Practically, it suggests how sentencing and punishment can better avoid affective blame and instead further rehabilitative and related ends, while yet serving the demands of justice.

  1. Distribution of mammal functional diversity in the Neotropical realm: Influence of land-use and extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José F González-Maya

    Full Text Available Functional diversity represents a measure of diversity that incorporates the role of species in an ecosystem, and therefore its dynamics and resilience. Assessing its drivers and spatial variation represents an important step forward in our understanding of functional ecosystem dynamics and it is also necessary to achieve a comprehensive conservation planning. In this paper, we assessed mammal functional diversity for the 218 ecoregions within the Neotropical realm. We evaluated the overall influence and spatial variation of species richness, ecoregion extent, intervention and species at risk on functional diversity. Using ordinary least squares and geographically weighted regression modeling approaches, we found that intervened areas and threatened and non-threatened species are the most influential overall drivers of functional diversity. However, we also detected that these variables do not operate equally across scales. Our local analyses indicated both that the variation explained and local coefficients vary spatially depending on the ecoregion and major habitat type. As estimates of functional diversity are based on current distribution of all mammals, negative influence of intervened areas and positive influence of non-threatened species may reflect a potential degradation of functional processes for some ecosystems. Most generally, the negative influence of intervention together with the influence of threatened species indicates that some areas are currently more susceptible to functional diversity loss. Our results help to pinpoint key areas requiring urgent conservation action to reduce natural land-cover loss and areas where threatened species play influential roles on ecosystem functioning.

  2. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  3. From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

    1994-03-01

    The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

  4. Search for pair-produced third-generation squarks decaying via charm quarks or in compressed supersymmetric scenarios in $pp$ collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Aad, Georges; Abdallah, Jalal; Abdel Khalek, Samah; Abdinov, Ovsat; Aben, Rosemarie; Abi, Babak; Abolins, Maris; AbouZeid, Ossama; Abramowicz, Halina; Abreu, Henso; Abreu, Ricardo; Abulaiti, Yiming; Acharya, Bobby Samir; Adamczyk, Leszek; Adams, David; Adelman, Jahred; Adomeit, Stefanie; Adye, Tim; Agatonovic-Jovin, Tatjana; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Agustoni, Marco; Ahlen, Steven; Ahmadov, Faig; Aielli, Giulio; Akerstedt, Henrik; Åkesson, Torsten Paul Ake; Akimoto, Ginga; Akimov, Andrei; Alberghi, Gian Luigi; Albert, Justin; Albrand, Solveig; Alconada Verzini, Maria Josefina; Aleksa, Martin; Aleksandrov, Igor; Alexa, Calin; Alexander, Gideon; Alexandre, Gauthier; Alexopoulos, Theodoros; Alhroob, Muhammad; Alimonti, Gianluca; Alio, Lion; Alison, John; Allbrooke, Benedict; Allison, Lee John; Allport, Phillip; Almond, John; Aloisio, Alberto; Alonso, Alejandro; Alonso, Francisco; Alpigiani, Cristiano; Altheimer, Andrew David; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Alviggi, Mariagrazia; Amako, Katsuya; Amaral Coutinho, Yara; Amelung, Christoph; Amidei, Dante; Amor Dos Santos, Susana Patricia; Amorim, Antonio; Amoroso, Simone; Amram, Nir; Amundsen, Glenn; Anastopoulos, Christos; Ancu, Lucian Stefan; Andari, Nansi; Andeen, Timothy; Anders, Christoph Falk; Anders, Gabriel; Anderson, Kelby; Andreazza, Attilio; Andrei, George Victor; Anduaga, Xabier; Angelidakis, Stylianos; Angelozzi, Ivan; Anger, Philipp; Angerami, Aaron; Anghinolfi, Francis; Anisenkov, Alexey; Anjos, Nuno; Annovi, Alberto; Antonaki, Ariadni; Antonelli, Mario; Antonov, Alexey; Antos, Jaroslav; Anulli, Fabio; Aoki, Masato; Aperio Bella, Ludovica; Apolle, Rudi; Arabidze, Giorgi; Aracena, Ignacio; Arai, Yasuo; Araque, Juan Pedro; Arce, Ayana; Arguin, Jean-Francois; Argyropoulos, Spyridon; Arik, Metin; Armbruster, Aaron James; Arnaez, Olivier; Arnal, Vanessa; Arnold, Hannah; Arratia, Miguel; Arslan, Ozan; Artamonov, Andrei; Artoni, Giacomo; Asai, Shoji; Asbah, Nedaa; Ashkenazi, Adi; Åsman, Barbro; Asquith, Lily; Assamagan, Ketevi; Astalos, Robert; Atkinson, Markus; Atlay, Naim Bora; Auerbach, Benjamin; Augsten, Kamil; Aurousseau, Mathieu; Avolio, Giuseppe; Azuelos, Georges; Azuma, Yuya; Baak, Max; Baas, Alessandra; Bacci, Cesare; Bachacou, Henri; Bachas, Konstantinos; Backes, Moritz; Backhaus, Malte; Backus Mayes, John; Badescu, Elisabeta; Bagiacchi, Paolo; Bagnaia, Paolo; Bai, Yu; Bain, Travis; Baines, John; Baker, Oliver Keith; Balek, Petr; Balli, Fabrice; Banas, Elzbieta; Banerjee, Swagato; Bannoura, Arwa A E; Bansal, Vikas; Bansil, Hardeep Singh; Barak, Liron; Baranov, Sergei; Barberio, Elisabetta Luigia; Barberis, Dario; Barbero, Marlon; Barillari, Teresa; Barisonzi, Marcello; Barklow, Timothy; Barlow, Nick; Barnett, Bruce; Barnett, Michael; Barnovska, Zuzana; Baroncelli, Antonio; Barone, Gaetano; Barr, Alan; Barreiro, Fernando; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, João; Bartoldus, Rainer; Barton, Adam Edward; Bartos, Pavol; Bartsch, Valeria; Bassalat, Ahmed; Basye, Austin; Bates, Richard; Batley, Richard; Battaglia, Marco; Battistin, Michele; Bauer, Florian; Bawa, Harinder Singh; Beattie, Michael David; Beau, Tristan; Beauchemin, Pierre-Hugues; Beccherle, Roberto; Bechtle, Philip; Beck, Hans Peter; Becker, Anne Kathrin; Becker, Sebastian; Beckingham, Matthew; Becot, Cyril; Beddall, Andrew; Beddall, Ayda; Bedikian, Sourpouhi; Bednyakov, Vadim; Bee, Christopher; Beemster, Lars; Beermann, Thomas; Begel, Michael; Behr, Katharina; Belanger-Champagne, Camille; Bell, Paul; Bell, William; Bella, Gideon; Bellagamba, Lorenzo; Bellerive, Alain; Bellomo, Massimiliano; Belotskiy, Konstantin; Beltramello, Olga; Benary, Odette; Benchekroun, Driss; Bendtz, Katarina; Benekos, Nektarios; Benhammou, Yan; Benhar Noccioli, Eleonora; Benitez Garcia, Jorge-Armando; Benjamin, Douglas; Bensinger, James; Benslama, Kamal; Bentvelsen, Stan; Berge, David; Bergeaas Kuutmann, Elin; Berger, Nicolas; Berghaus, Frank; Beringer, Jürg; Bernard, Clare; Bernat, Pauline; Bernius, Catrin; Bernlochner, Florian Urs; Berry, Tracey; Berta, Peter; Bertella, Claudia; Bertoli, Gabriele; Bertolucci, Federico; Bertsche, Carolyn; Bertsche, David; Besana, Maria Ilaria; Besjes, Geert-Jan; Bessidskaia, Olga; Bessner, Martin Florian; Besson, Nathalie; Betancourt, Christopher; Bethke, Siegfried; Bhimji, Wahid; Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; Bianchini, Louis; Bianco, Michele; Biebel, Otmar; Bieniek, Stephen Paul; Bierwagen, Katharina; Biesiada, Jed; Biglietti, Michela; Bilbao De Mendizabal, Javier; Bilokon, Halina; Bindi, Marcello; Binet, Sebastien; Bingul, Ahmet; Bini, Cesare; Black, Curtis; Black, James; Black, Kevin; Blackburn, Daniel; Blair, Robert; Blanchard, Jean-Baptiste; Blazek, Tomas; Bloch, Ingo; Blocker, Craig; Blum, Walter; Blumenschein, Ulrike; Bobbink, Gerjan; Bobrovnikov, Victor; Bocchetta, Simona Serena; Bocci, Andrea; Bock, Christopher; Boddy, Christopher Richard; Boehler, Michael; Boek, Thorsten Tobias; Bogaerts, Joannes Andreas; Bogdanchikov, Alexander; Bogouch, Andrei; Bohm, Christian; Bohm, Jan; Boisvert, Veronique; Bold, Tomasz; Boldea, Venera; Boldyrev, Alexey; Bomben, Marco; Bona, Marcella; Boonekamp, Maarten; Borisov, Anatoly; Borissov, Guennadi; Borri, Marcello; Borroni, Sara; Bortfeldt, Jonathan; Bortolotto, Valerio; Bos, Kors; Boscherini, Davide; Bosman, Martine; Boterenbrood, Hendrik; Boudreau, Joseph; Bouffard, Julian; Bouhova-Thacker, Evelina Vassileva; Boumediene, Djamel Eddine; Bourdarios, Claire; Bousson, Nicolas; Boutouil, Sara; Boveia, Antonio; Boyd, James; Boyko, Igor; Bracinik, Juraj; Brandt, Andrew; Brandt, Gerhard; Brandt, Oleg; Bratzler, Uwe; Brau, Benjamin; Brau, James; Braun, Helmut; Brazzale, Simone Federico; Brelier, Bertrand; Brendlinger, Kurt; Brennan, Amelia Jean; Brenner, Richard; Bressler, Shikma; Bristow, Kieran; Bristow, Timothy Michael; Britton, Dave; Brochu, Frederic; Brock, Ian; Brock, Raymond; Bromberg, Carl; Bronner, Johanna; Brooijmans, Gustaaf; Brooks, Timothy; Brooks, William; Brosamer, Jacquelyn; Brost, Elizabeth; Brown, Jonathan; Bruckman de Renstrom, Pawel; Bruncko, Dusan; Bruneliere, Renaud; Brunet, Sylvie; Bruni, Alessia; Bruni, Graziano; Bruschi, Marco; Bryngemark, Lene; Buanes, Trygve; Buat, Quentin; Bucci, Francesca; Buchholz, Peter; Buckingham, Ryan; Buckley, Andrew; Buda, Stelian Ioan; Budagov, Ioulian; Buehrer, Felix; Bugge, Lars; Bugge, Magnar Kopangen; Bulekov, Oleg; Bundock, Aaron Colin; Burckhart, Helfried; Burdin, Sergey; Burghgrave, Blake; Burke, Stephen; Burmeister, Ingo; Busato, Emmanuel; Büscher, Daniel; Büscher, Volker; Bussey, Peter; Buszello, Claus-Peter; Butler, Bart; Butler, John; Butt, Aatif Imtiaz; Buttar, Craig; Butterworth, Jonathan; Butti, Pierfrancesco; Buttinger, William; Buzatu, Adrian; Byszewski, Marcin; Cabrera Urbán, Susana; Caforio, Davide; Cakir, Orhan; Calafiura, Paolo; Calandri, Alessandro; Calderini, Giovanni; Calfayan, Philippe; Calkins, Robert; Caloba, Luiz; Calvet, David; Calvet, Samuel; Camacho Toro, Reina; Camarda, Stefano; Cameron, David; Caminada, Lea Michaela; Caminal Armadans, Roger; Campana, Simone; Campanelli, Mario; Campoverde, Angel; Canale, Vincenzo; Canepa, Anadi; Cano Bret, Marc; Cantero, Josu; Cantrill, Robert; Cao, Tingting; Capeans Garrido, Maria Del Mar; Caprini, Irinel; Caprini, Mihai; Capua, Marcella; Caputo, Regina; Cardarelli, Roberto; Carli, Tancredi; Carlino, Gianpaolo; Carminati, Leonardo; Caron, Sascha; Carquin, Edson; Carrillo-Montoya, German D; Carter, Janet; Carvalho, João; Casadei, Diego; Casado, Maria Pilar; Casolino, Mirkoantonio; Castaneda-Miranda, Elizabeth; Castelli, Angelantonio; Castillo Gimenez, Victoria; Castro, Nuno Filipe; Catastini, Pierluigi; Catinaccio, Andrea; Catmore, James; Cattai, Ariella; Cattani, Giordano; Caughron, Seth; Cavaliere, Viviana; Cavalli, Donatella; Cavalli-Sforza, Matteo; Cavasinni, Vincenzo; Ceradini, Filippo; Cerio, Benjamin; Cerny, Karel; Santiago Cerqueira, Augusto; Cerri, Alessandro; Cerrito, Lucio; Cerutti, Fabio; Cerv, Matevz; Cervelli, Alberto; Cetin, Serkant Ali; Chafaq, Aziz; Chakraborty, Dhiman; Chalupkova, Ina; Chang, Philip; Chapleau, Bertrand; Chapman, John Derek; Charfeddine, Driss; Charlton, Dave; Chau, Chav Chhiv; Chavez Barajas, Carlos Alberto; Cheatham, Susan; Chegwidden, Andrew; Chekanov, Sergei; Chekulaev, Sergey; Chelkov, Gueorgui; Chelstowska, Magda Anna; Chen, Chunhui; Chen, Hucheng; Chen, Karen; Chen, Liming; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Xin; Chen, Ye; Chen, Yujiao; Cheng, Hok Chuen; Cheng, Yangyang; Cheplakov, Alexander; Cherkaoui El Moursli, Rajaa; Chernyatin, Valeriy; Cheu, Elliott; Chevalier, Laurent; Chiarella, Vitaliano; Chiefari, Giovanni; Childers, John Taylor; Chilingarov, Alexandre; Chiodini, Gabriele; Chisholm, Andrew; Chislett, Rebecca Thalatta; Chitan, Adrian; Chizhov, Mihail; Chouridou, Sofia; Chow, Bonnie Kar Bo; Chromek-Burckhart, Doris; Chu, Ming-Lee; Chudoba, Jiri; Chwastowski, Janusz; Chytka, Ladislav; Ciapetti, Guido; Ciftci, Abbas Kenan; Ciftci, Rena; Cinca, Diane; Cindro, Vladimir; Ciocio, Alessandra; Cirkovic, Predrag; Citron, Zvi Hirsh; Citterio, Mauro; Ciubancan, Mihai; Clark, Allan G; Clark, Philip James; Clarke, Robert; Cleland, Bill; Clemens, Jean-Claude; Clement, Christophe; Coadou, Yann; Cobal, Marina; Coccaro, Andrea; Cochran, James H; Coffey, Laurel; Cogan, Joshua Godfrey; Coggeshall, James; Cole, Brian; Cole, Stephen; Colijn, Auke-Pieter; Collot, Johann; Colombo, Tommaso; Colon, German; Compostella, Gabriele; Conde Muiño, Patricia; Coniavitis, Elias; Conidi, Maria Chiara; Connell, Simon Henry; Connelly, Ian; Consonni, Sofia Maria; Consorti, Valerio; Constantinescu, Serban; Conta, Claudio; Conti, Geraldine; Conventi, Francesco; Cooke, Mark; Cooper, Ben; Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; Cooper-Smith, Neil; Copic, Katherine; Cornelissen, Thijs; Corradi, Massimo; Corriveau, Francois; Corso-Radu, Alina; Cortes-Gonzalez, Arely; Cortiana, Giorgio; Costa, Giuseppe; Costa, María José; Costanzo, Davide; Côté, David; Cottin, Giovanna; Cowan, Glen; Cox, Brian; Cranmer, Kyle; Cree, Graham; Crépé-Renaudin, Sabine; Crescioli, Francesco; Cribbs, Wayne Allen; Crispin Ortuzar, Mireia; Cristinziani, Markus; Croft, Vince; Crosetti, Giovanni; Cuciuc, Constantin-Mihai; Cuhadar Donszelmann, Tulay; Cummings, Jane; Curatolo, Maria; Cuthbert, Cameron; Czirr, Hendrik; Czodrowski, Patrick; Czyczula, Zofia; D'Auria, Saverio; D'Onofrio, Monica; Da Cunha Sargedas De Sousa, Mario Jose; Da Via, Cinzia; Dabrowski, Wladyslaw; Dafinca, Alexandru; Dai, Tiesheng; Dale, Orjan; Dallaire, Frederick; Dallapiccola, Carlo; Dam, Mogens; Daniells, Andrew Christopher; Dano Hoffmann, Maria; Dao, Valerio; Darbo, Giovanni; Darmora, Smita; Dassoulas, James; Dattagupta, Aparajita; Davey, Will; David, Claire; Davidek, Tomas; Davies, Eleanor; Davies, Merlin; Davignon, Olivier; Davison, Adam; Davison, Peter; Davygora, Yuriy; Dawe, Edmund; Dawson, Ian; Daya-Ishmukhametova, Rozmin; De, Kaushik; de Asmundis, Riccardo; De Castro, Stefano; De Cecco, Sandro; De Groot, Nicolo; de Jong, Paul; De la Torre, Hector; De Lorenzi, Francesco; De Nooij, Lucie; De Pedis, Daniele; De Salvo, Alessandro; De Sanctis, Umberto; De Santo, Antonella; De Vivie De Regie, Jean-Baptiste; Dearnaley, William James; Debbe, Ramiro; Debenedetti, Chiara; Dechenaux, Benjamin; Dedovich, Dmitri; Deigaard, Ingrid; Del Peso, Jose; Del Prete, Tarcisio; Deliot, Frederic; Delitzsch, Chris Malena; Deliyergiyev, Maksym; Dell'Acqua, Andrea; Dell'Asta, Lidia; Dell'Orso, Mauro; Della Pietra, Massimo; della Volpe, Domenico; Delmastro, Marco; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Deluca, Carolina; Demers, Sarah; Demichev, Mikhail; Demilly, Aurelien; Denisov, Sergey; Derendarz, Dominik; Derkaoui, Jamal Eddine; Derue, Frederic; Dervan, Paul; Desch, Klaus Kurt; Deterre, Cecile; Deviveiros, Pier-Olivier; Dewhurst, Alastair; Dhaliwal, Saminder; Di Ciaccio, Anna; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Domenico, Antonio; Di Donato, Camilla; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Di Girolamo, Beniamino; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Di Micco, Biagio; Di Nardo, Roberto; Di Simone, Andrea; Di Sipio, Riccardo; Di Valentino, David; Dias, Flavia; Diaz, Marco Aurelio; Diehl, Edward; Dietrich, Janet; Dietzsch, Thorsten; Diglio, Sara; Dimitrievska, Aleksandra; Dingfelder, Jochen; Dionisi, Carlo; Dita, Petre; Dita, Sanda; Dittus, Fridolin; Djama, Fares; Djobava, Tamar; Barros do Vale, Maria Aline; Do Valle Wemans, André; Doan, Thi Kieu Oanh; Dobos, Daniel; Doglioni, Caterina; Doherty, Tom; Dohmae, Takeshi; Dolejsi, Jiri; Dolezal, Zdenek; Dolgoshein, Boris; Donadelli, Marisilvia; Donati, Simone; Dondero, Paolo; Donini, Julien; Dopke, Jens; Doria, Alessandra; Dova, Maria-Teresa; Doyle, Tony; Dris, Manolis; Dubbert, Jörg; Dube, Sourabh; Dubreuil, Emmanuelle; Duchovni, Ehud; Duckeck, Guenter; Ducu, Otilia Anamaria; Duda, Dominik; Dudarev, Alexey; Dudziak, Fanny; Duflot, Laurent; Duguid, Liam; Dührssen, Michael; Dunford, Monica; Duran Yildiz, Hatice; Düren, Michael; Durglishvili, Archil; Dwuznik, Michal; Dyndal, Mateusz; Ebke, Johannes; Edson, William; Edwards, Nicholas Charles; Ehrenfeld, Wolfgang; Eifert, Till; Eigen, Gerald; Einsweiler, Kevin; Ekelof, Tord; El Kacimi, Mohamed; Ellert, Mattias; Elles, Sabine; Ellinghaus, Frank; Ellis, Nicolas; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Elsing, Markus; Emeliyanov, Dmitry; Enari, Yuji; Endner, Oliver Chris; Endo, Masaki; Engelmann, Roderich; Erdmann, Johannes; Ereditato, Antonio; Eriksson, Daniel; Ernis, Gunar; Ernst, Jesse; Ernst, Michael; Ernwein, Jean; Errede, Deborah; Errede, Steven; Ertel, Eugen; Escalier, Marc; Esch, Hendrik; Escobar, Carlos; Esposito, Bellisario; Etienvre, Anne-Isabelle; Etzion, Erez; Evans, Hal; Ezhilov, Alexey; Fabbri, Laura; Facini, Gabriel; Fakhrutdinov, Rinat; Falciano, Speranza; Falla, Rebecca Jane; Faltova, Jana; Fang, Yaquan; Fanti, Marcello; Farbin, Amir; Farilla, Addolorata; Farooque, Trisha; Farrell, Steven; Farrington, Sinead; Farthouat, Philippe; Fassi, Farida; Fassnacht, Patrick; Fassouliotis, Dimitrios; Favareto, Andrea; Fayard, Louis; Federic, Pavol; Fedin, Oleg; Fedorko, Wojciech; Fehling-Kaschek, Mirjam; Feigl, Simon; Feligioni, Lorenzo; Feng, Cunfeng; Feng, Eric; Feng, Haolu; Fenyuk, Alexander; Fernandez Perez, Sonia; Ferrag, Samir; Ferrando, James; Ferrari, Arnaud; Ferrari, Pamela; Ferrari, Roberto; Ferreira de Lima, Danilo Enoque; Ferrer, Antonio; Ferrere, Didier; Ferretti, Claudio; Ferretto Parodi, Andrea; Fiascaris, Maria; Fiedler, Frank; Filipčič, Andrej; Filipuzzi, Marco; Filthaut, Frank; Fincke-Keeler, Margret; Finelli, Kevin Daniel; Fiolhais, Miguel; Fiorini, Luca; Firan, Ana; Fischer, Adam; Fischer, Julia; Fisher, Wade Cameron; Fitzgerald, Eric Andrew; Flechl, Martin; Fleck, Ivor; Fleischmann, Philipp; Fleischmann, Sebastian; Fletcher, Gareth Thomas; Fletcher, Gregory; Flick, Tobias; Floderus, Anders; Flores Castillo, Luis; Florez Bustos, Andres Carlos; Flowerdew, Michael; Formica, Andrea; Forti, Alessandra; Fortin, Dominique; Fournier, Daniel; Fox, Harald; Fracchia, Silvia; Francavilla, Paolo; Franchini, Matteo; Franchino, Silvia; Francis, David; Franconi, Laura; Franklin, Melissa; Franz, Sebastien; Fraternali, Marco; French, Sky; Friedrich, Conrad; Friedrich, Felix; Froidevaux, Daniel; Frost, James; Fukunaga, Chikara; Fullana Torregrosa, Esteban; Fulsom, Bryan Gregory; Fuster, Juan; Gabaldon, Carolina; Gabizon, Ofir; Gabrielli, Alessandro; Gabrielli, Andrea; Gadatsch, Stefan; Gadomski, Szymon; Gagliardi, Guido; Gagnon, Pauline; Galea, Cristina; Galhardo, Bruno; Gallas, Elizabeth; Gallo, Valentina Santina; Gallop, Bruce; Gallus, Petr; Galster, Gorm Aske Gram Krohn; Gan, KK; Gao, Jun; Gao, Yongsheng; Garay Walls, Francisca; Garberson, Ford; García, Carmen; García Navarro, José Enrique; Garcia-Sciveres, Maurice; Gardner, Robert; Garelli, Nicoletta; Garonne, Vincent; Gatti, Claudio; Gaudio, Gabriella; Gaur, Bakul; Gauthier, Lea; Gauzzi, Paolo; Gavrilenko, Igor; Gay, Colin; Gaycken, Goetz; Gazis, Evangelos; Ge, Peng; Gecse, Zoltan; Gee, Norman; Geerts, Daniël Alphonsus Adrianus; Geich-Gimbel, Christoph; Gellerstedt, Karl; Gemme, Claudia; Gemmell, Alistair; Genest, Marie-Hélène; Gentile, Simonetta; George, Matthias; George, Simon; Gerbaudo, Davide; Gershon, Avi; Ghazlane, Hamid; Ghodbane, Nabil; Giacobbe, Benedetto; Giagu, Stefano; Giangiobbe, Vincent; Giannetti, Paola; Gianotti, Fabiola; Gibbard, Bruce; Gibson, Stephen; Gilchriese, Murdock; Gillam, Thomas; Gillberg, Dag; Gilles, Geoffrey; Gingrich, Douglas; Giokaris, Nikos; Giordani, MarioPaolo; Giordano, Raffaele; Giorgi, Filippo Maria; Giorgi, Francesco Michelangelo; Giraud, Pierre-Francois; Giugni, Danilo; Giuliani, Claudia; Giulini, Maddalena; Gjelsten, Børge Kile; Gkaitatzis, Stamatios; Gkialas, Ioannis; Gladilin, Leonid; Glasman, Claudia; Glatzer, Julian; Glaysher, Paul; Glazov, Alexandre; Glonti, George; Goblirsch-Kolb, Maximilian; Goddard, Jack Robert; Godfrey, Jennifer; Godlewski, Jan; Goeringer, Christian; Goldfarb, Steven; Golling, Tobias; Golubkov, Dmitry; Gomes, Agostinho; Gomez Fajardo, Luz Stella; Gonçalo, Ricardo; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, Joao; Gonella, Laura; González de la Hoz, Santiago; Gonzalez Parra, Garoe; Gonzalez-Sevilla, Sergio; Goossens, Luc; Gorbounov, Petr Andreevich; Gordon, Howard; Gorelov, Igor; Gorini, Benedetto; Gorini, Edoardo; Gorišek, Andrej; Gornicki, Edward; Goshaw, Alfred; Gössling, Claus; Gostkin, Mikhail Ivanovitch; Gouighri, Mohamed; Goujdami, Driss; Goulette, Marc Phillippe; Goussiou, Anna; Goy, Corinne; Gozpinar, Serdar; Grabas, Herve Marie Xavier; Graber, Lars; Grabowska-Bold, Iwona; Grafström, Per; Grahn, Karl-Johan; Gramling, Johanna; Gramstad, Eirik; Grancagnolo, Sergio; Grassi, Valerio; Gratchev, Vadim; Gray, Heather; Graziani, Enrico; Grebenyuk, Oleg; Greenwood, Zeno Dixon; Gregersen, Kristian; Gregor, Ingrid-Maria; Grenier, Philippe; Griffiths, Justin; Grillo, Alexander; Grimm, Kathryn; Grinstein, Sebastian; Gris, Philippe Luc Yves; Grishkevich, Yaroslav; Grivaz, Jean-Francois; Grohs, Johannes Philipp; Grohsjean, Alexander; Gross, Eilam; Grosse-Knetter, Joern; Grossi, Giulio Cornelio; Groth-Jensen, Jacob; Grout, Zara Jane; Guan, Liang; Guescini, Francesco; Guest, Daniel; Gueta, Orel; Guicheney, Christophe; Guido, Elisa; Guillemin, Thibault; Guindon, Stefan; Gul, Umar; Gumpert, Christian; Gunther, Jaroslav; Guo, Jun; Gupta, Shaun; Gutierrez, Phillip; Gutierrez Ortiz, Nicolas Gilberto; Gutschow, Christian; Guttman, Nir; Guyot, Claude; Gwenlan, Claire; Gwilliam, Carl; Haas, Andy; Haber, Carl; Hadavand, Haleh Khani; Haddad, Nacim; Haefner, Petra; Hageböck, Stephan; Hajduk, Zbigniew; Hakobyan, Hrachya; Haleem, Mahsana; Hall, David; Halladjian, Garabed; Hamacher, Klaus; Hamal, Petr; Hamano, Kenji; Hamer, Matthias; Hamilton, Andrew; Hamilton, Samuel; Hamity, Guillermo Nicolas; Hamnett, Phillip George; Han, Liang; Hanagaki, Kazunori; Hanawa, Keita; Hance, Michael; Hanke, Paul; Hanna, Remie; Hansen, Jørgen Beck; Hansen, Jorn Dines; Hansen, Peter Henrik; Hara, Kazuhiko; Hard, Andrew; Harenberg, Torsten; Hariri, Faten; Harkusha, Siarhei; Harper, Devin; Harrington, Robert; Harris, Orin; Harrison, Paul Fraser; Hartjes, Fred; Hasegawa, Makoto; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hasegawa, Yoji; Hasib, A; Hassani, Samira; Haug, Sigve; Hauschild, Michael; Hauser, Reiner; Havranek, Miroslav; Hawkes, Christopher; Hawkings, Richard John; Hawkins, Anthony David; Hayashi, Takayasu; Hayden, Daniel; Hays, Chris; Hayward, Helen; Haywood, Stephen; Head, Simon; Heck, Tobias; Hedberg, Vincent; Heelan, Louise; Heim, Sarah; Heim, Timon; Heinemann, Beate; Heinrich, Lukas; Hejbal, Jiri; Helary, Louis; Heller, Claudio; Heller, Matthieu; Hellman, Sten; Hellmich, Dennis; Helsens, Clement; Henderson, James; Henderson, Robert; Heng, Yang; Hengler, Christopher; Henrichs, Anna; Henriques Correia, Ana Maria; Henrot-Versille, Sophie; Hensel, Carsten; Herbert, Geoffrey Henry; Hernández Jiménez, Yesenia; Herrberg-Schubert, Ruth; Herten, Gregor; Hertenberger, Ralf; Hervas, Luis; Hesketh, Gavin Grant; Hessey, Nigel; Hickling, Robert; Higón-Rodriguez, Emilio; Hill, Ewan; Hill, John; Hiller, Karl Heinz; Hillert, Sonja; Hillier, Stephen; Hinchliffe, Ian; Hines, Elizabeth; Hirose, Minoru; Hirschbuehl, Dominic; Hobbs, John; Hod, Noam; Hodgkinson, Mark; Hodgson, Paul; Hoecker, Andreas; Hoeferkamp, Martin; Hoenig, Friedrich; Hoffman, Julia; Hoffmann, Dirk; Hofmann, Julia Isabell; Hohlfeld, Marc; Holmes, Tova Ray; Hong, Tae Min; Hooft van Huysduynen, Loek; Horii, Yasuyuki; Hostachy, Jean-Yves; Hou, Suen; Hoummada, Abdeslam; Howard, Jacob; Howarth, James; Hrabovsky, Miroslav; Hristova, Ivana; Hrivnac, Julius; Hryn'ova, Tetiana; Hsu, Catherine; Hsu, Pai-hsien Jennifer; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Hu, Diedi; Hu, Xueye; Huang, Yanping; Hubacek, Zdenek; Hubaut, Fabrice; Huegging, Fabian; Huffman, Todd Brian; Hughes, Emlyn; Hughes, Gareth; Huhtinen, Mika; Hülsing, Tobias Alexander; Hurwitz, Martina; Huseynov, Nazim; Huston, Joey; Huth, John; Iacobucci, Giuseppe; Iakovidis, Georgios; Ibragimov, Iskander; Iconomidou-Fayard, Lydia; Ideal, Emma; Iengo, Paolo; Igonkina, Olga; Iizawa, Tomoya; Ikegami, Yoichi; Ikematsu, Katsumasa; Ikeno, Masahiro; Ilchenko, Iurii; Iliadis, Dimitrios; Ilic, Nikolina; Inamaru, Yuki; Ince, Tayfun; Ioannou, Pavlos; Iodice, Mauro; Iordanidou, Kalliopi; Ippolito, Valerio; Irles Quiles, Adrian; Isaksson, Charlie; Ishino, Masaya; Ishitsuka, Masaki; Ishmukhametov, Renat; Issever, Cigdem; Istin, Serhat; Iturbe Ponce, Julia Mariana; Iuppa, Roberto; Ivarsson, Jenny; Iwanski, Wieslaw; Iwasaki, Hiroyuki; Izen, Joseph; Izzo, Vincenzo; Jackson, Brett; Jackson, Matthew; Jackson, Paul; Jaekel, Martin; Jain, Vivek; Jakobs, Karl; Jakobsen, Sune; Jakoubek, Tomas; Jakubek, Jan; Jamin, David Olivier; Jana, Dilip; Jansen, Eric; Jansen, Hendrik; Janssen, Jens; Janus, Michel; Jarlskog, Göran; Javadov, Namig; Javůrek, Tomáš; Jeanty, Laura; Jejelava, Juansher; Jeng, Geng-yuan; Jennens, David; Jenni, Peter; Jentzsch, Jennifer; Jeske, Carl; Jézéquel, Stéphane; Ji, Haoshuang; Jia, Jiangyong; Jiang, Yi; Jimenez Belenguer, Marcos; Jin, Shan; Jinaru, Adam; Jinnouchi, Osamu; Joergensen, Morten Dam; Johansson, Erik; Johansson, Per; Johns, Kenneth; Jon-And, Kerstin; Jones, Graham; Jones, Roger; Jones, Tim; Jongmanns, Jan; Jorge, Pedro; Joshi, Kiran Daniel; Jovicevic, Jelena; Ju, Xiangyang; Jung, Christian; Jungst, Ralph Markus; Jussel, Patrick; Juste Rozas, Aurelio; Kaci, Mohammed; Kaczmarska, Anna; Kado, Marumi; Kagan, Harris; Kagan, Michael; Kajomovitz, Enrique; Kalderon, Charles William; Kama, Sami; Kamenshchikov, Andrey; Kanaya, Naoko; Kaneda, Michiru; Kaneti, Steven; Kantserov, Vadim; Kanzaki, Junichi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Kapliy, Anton; Kar, Deepak; Karakostas, Konstantinos; Karastathis, Nikolaos; Karnevskiy, Mikhail; Karpov, Sergey; Karpova, Zoya; Karthik, Krishnaiyengar; Kartvelishvili, Vakhtang; Karyukhin, Andrey; Kashif, Lashkar; Kasieczka, Gregor; Kass, Richard; Kastanas, Alex; Kataoka, Yousuke; Katre, Akshay; Katzy, Judith; Kaushik, Venkatesh; Kawagoe, Kiyotomo; Kawamoto, Tatsuo; Kawamura, Gen; Kazama, Shingo; Kazanin, Vassili; Kazarinov, Makhail; Keeler, Richard; Kehoe, Robert; Keil, Markus; Keller, John; Kempster, Jacob Julian; Keoshkerian, Houry; Kepka, Oldrich; Kerševan, Borut Paul; Kersten, Susanne; Kessoku, Kohei; Keung, Justin; Khalil-zada, Farkhad; Khandanyan, Hovhannes; Khanov, Alexander; Khodinov, Alexander; Khomich, Andrei; Khoo, Teng Jian; Khoriauli, Gia; Khoroshilov, Andrey; Khovanskiy, Valery; Khramov, Evgeniy; Khubua, Jemal; Kim, Hee Yeun; Kim, Hyeon Jin; Kim, Shinhong; Kimura, Naoki; Kind, Oliver; King, Barry; King, Matthew; King, Robert Steven Beaufoy; King, Samuel Burton; Kirk, Julie; Kiryunin, Andrey; Kishimoto, Tomoe; Kisielewska, Danuta; Kiss, Florian; Kittelmann, Thomas; Kiuchi, Kenji; Kladiva, Eduard; Klein, Max; Klein, Uta; Kleinknecht, Konrad; Klimek, Pawel; Klimentov, Alexei; Klingenberg, Reiner; Klinger, Joel Alexander; Klioutchnikova, Tatiana; Klok, Peter; Kluge, Eike-Erik; Kluit, Peter; Kluth, Stefan; Kneringer, Emmerich; Knoops, Edith; Knue, Andrea; Kobayashi, Dai; Kobayashi, Tomio; Kobel, Michael; Kocian, Martin; Kodys, Peter; Koevesarki, Peter; Koffas, Thomas; Koffeman, Els; Kogan, Lucy Anne; Kohlmann, Simon; Kohout, Zdenek; Kohriki, Takashi; Koi, Tatsumi; Kolanoski, Hermann; Koletsou, Iro; Koll, James; Komar, Aston; Komori, Yuto; Kondo, Takahiko; Kondrashova, Nataliia; Köneke, Karsten; König, Adriaan; König, Sebastian; Kono, Takanori; Konoplich, Rostislav; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Kopeliansky, Revital; Koperny, Stefan; Köpke, Lutz; Kopp, Anna Katharina; Korcyl, Krzysztof; Kordas, Kostantinos; Korn, Andreas; Korol, Aleksandr; Korolkov, Ilya; Korolkova, Elena; Korotkov, Vladislav; Kortner, Oliver; Kortner, Sandra; Kostyukhin, Vadim; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotwal, Ashutosh; Kourkoumelis, Christine; Kouskoura, Vasiliki; Koutsman, Alex; Kowalewski, Robert Victor; Kowalski, Tadeusz; Kozanecki, Witold; Kozhin, Anatoly; Kral, Vlastimil; Kramarenko, Viktor; Kramberger, Gregor; Krasnopevtsev, Dimitriy; Krasny, Mieczyslaw Witold; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Kraus, Jana; Kravchenko, Anton; Kreiss, Sven; Kretz, Moritz; Kretzschmar, Jan; Kreutzfeldt, Kristof; Krieger, Peter; Kroeninger, Kevin; Kroha, Hubert; Kroll, Joe; Kroseberg, Juergen; Krstic, Jelena; Kruchonak, Uladzimir; Krüger, Hans; Kruker, Tobias; Krumnack, Nils; Krumshteyn, Zinovii; Kruse, Amanda; Kruse, Mark; Kruskal, Michael; Kubota, Takashi; Kuday, Sinan; Kuehn, Susanne; Kugel, Andreas; Kuhl, Andrew; Kuhl, Thorsten; Kukhtin, Victor; Kulchitsky, Yuri; Kuleshov, Sergey; Kuna, Marine; Kunkle, Joshua; Kupco, Alexander; Kurashige, Hisaya; Kurochkin, Yurii; Kurumida, Rie; Kus, Vlastimil; Kuwertz, Emma Sian; Kuze, Masahiro; Kvita, Jiri; La Rosa, Alessandro; La Rotonda, Laura; Lacasta, Carlos; Lacava, Francesco; Lacey, James; Lacker, Heiko; Lacour, Didier; Lacuesta, Vicente Ramón; Ladygin, Evgueni; Lafaye, Remi; Laforge, Bertrand; Lagouri, Theodota; Lai, Stanley; Laier, Heiko; Lambourne, Luke; Lammers, Sabine; Lampen, Caleb; Lampl, Walter; Lançon, Eric; Landgraf, Ulrich; Landon, Murrough; Lang, Valerie Susanne; Lankford, Andrew; Lanni, Francesco; Lantzsch, Kerstin; Laplace, Sandrine; Lapoire, Cecile; Laporte, Jean-Francois; Lari, Tommaso; Lassnig, Mario; Laurelli, Paolo; Lavrijsen, Wim; Law, Alexander; Laycock, Paul; Le Dortz, Olivier; Le Guirriec, Emmanuel; Le Menedeu, Eve; LeCompte, Thomas; Ledroit-Guillon, Fabienne Agnes Marie; Lee, Claire Alexandra; Lee, Hurng-Chun; Lee, Jason; Lee, Shih-Chang; Lee, Lawrence; Lefebvre, Guillaume; Lefebvre, Michel; Legger, Federica; Leggett, Charles; Lehan, Allan; Lehmacher, Marc; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Lei, Xiaowen; Leight, William Axel; Leisos, Antonios; Leister, Andrew Gerard; Leite, Marco Aurelio Lisboa; Leitner, Rupert; Lellouch, Daniel; Lemmer, Boris; Leney, Katharine; Lenz, Tatjana; Lenzen, Georg; Lenzi, Bruno; Leone, Robert; Leone, Sandra; Leonhardt, Kathrin; Leonidopoulos, Christos; Leontsinis, Stefanos; Leroy, Claude; Lester, Christopher; Lester, Christopher Michael; Levchenko, Mikhail; Levêque, Jessica; Levin, Daniel; Levinson, Lorne; Levy, Mark; Lewis, Adrian; Lewis, George; Leyko, Agnieszka; Leyton, Michael; Li, Bing; Li, Bo; Li, Haifeng; Li, Ho Ling; Li, Lei; Li, Liang; Li, Shu; Li, Yichen; Liang, Zhijun; Liao, Hongbo; Liberti, Barbara; Lichard, Peter; Lie, Ki; Liebal, Jessica; Liebig, Wolfgang; Limbach, Christian; Limosani, Antonio; Lin, Simon; Lin, Tai-Hua; Linde, Frank; Lindquist, Brian Edward; Linnemann, James; Lipeles, Elliot; Lipniacka, Anna; Lisovyi, Mykhailo; Liss, Tony; Lissauer, David; Lister, Alison; Litke, Alan; Liu, Bo; Liu, Dong; Liu, Jianbei; Liu, Kun; Liu, Lulu; Liu, Miaoyuan; Liu, Minghui; Liu, Yanwen; Livan, Michele; Livermore, Sarah; Lleres, Annick; Llorente Merino, Javier; Lloyd, Stephen; Lo Sterzo, Francesco; Lobodzinska, Ewelina; Loch, Peter; Lockman, William; Loddenkoetter, Thomas; Loebinger, Fred; Loevschall-Jensen, Ask Emil; Loginov, Andrey; Lohse, Thomas; Lohwasser, Kristin; Lokajicek, Milos; Lombardo, Vincenzo Paolo; Long, Brian Alexander; Long, Jonathan; Long, Robin Eamonn; Lopes, Lourenco; Lopez Mateos, David; Lopez Paredes, Brais; Lopez Paz, Ivan; Lorenz, Jeanette; Lorenzo Martinez, Narei; Losada, Marta; Loscutoff, Peter; Lou, XinChou; Lounis, Abdenour; Love, Jeremy; Love, Peter; Lowe, Andrew; Lu, Feng; Lu, Nan; Lubatti, Henry; Luci, Claudio; Lucotte, Arnaud; Luehring, Frederick; Lukas, Wolfgang; Luminari, Lamberto; Lundberg, Olof; Lund-Jensen, Bengt; Lungwitz, Matthias; Lynn, David; Lysak, Roman; Lytken, Else; Ma, Hong; Ma, Lian Liang; Maccarrone, Giovanni; Macchiolo, Anna; Machado Miguens, Joana; Macina, Daniela; Madaffari, Daniele; Madar, Romain; Maddocks, Harvey Jonathan; Mader, Wolfgang; Madsen, Alexander; Maeno, Mayuko; Maeno, Tadashi; Magradze, Erekle; Mahboubi, Kambiz; Mahlstedt, Joern; Mahmoud, Sara; Maiani, Camilla; Maidantchik, Carmen; Maier, Andreas Alexander; Maio, Amélia; Majewski, Stephanie; Makida, Yasuhiro; Makovec, Nikola; Mal, Prolay; Malaescu, Bogdan; Malecki, Pawel; Maleev, Victor; Malek, Fairouz; Mallik, Usha; Malon, David; Malone, Caitlin; Maltezos, Stavros; Malyshev, Vladimir; Malyukov, Sergei; Mamuzic, Judita; Mandelli, Beatrice; Mandelli, Luciano; Mandić, Igor; Mandrysch, Rocco; Maneira, José; Manfredini, Alessandro; Manhaes de Andrade Filho, Luciano; Manjarres Ramos, Joany Andreina; Mann, Alexander; Manning, Peter; Manousakis-Katsikakis, Arkadios; Mansoulie, Bruno; Mantifel, Rodger; Mapelli, Livio; March, Luis; Marchand, Jean-Francois; Marchiori, Giovanni; Marcisovsky, Michal; Marino, Christopher; Marjanovic, Marija; Marques, Carlos; Marroquim, Fernando; Marsden, Stephen Philip; Marshall, Zach; Marti, Lukas Fritz; Marti-Garcia, Salvador; Martin, Brian; Martin, Brian Thomas; Martin, Tim; Martin, Victoria Jane; Martin dit Latour, Bertrand; Martinez, Homero; Martinez, Mario; Martin-Haugh, Stewart; Martyniuk, Alex; Marx, Marilyn; Marzano, Francesco; Marzin, Antoine; Masetti, Lucia; Mashimo, Tetsuro; Mashinistov, Ruslan; Masik, Jiri; Maslennikov, Alexey; Massa, Ignazio; Massa, Lorenzo; Massol, Nicolas; Mastrandrea, Paolo; Mastroberardino, Anna; Masubuchi, Tatsuya; Mättig, Peter; Mattmann, Johannes; Maurer, Julien; Maxfield, Stephen; Maximov, Dmitriy; Mazini, Rachid; Mazzaferro, Luca; Mc Goldrick, Garrin; Mc Kee, Shawn Patrick; McCarn, Allison; McCarthy, Robert; McCarthy, Tom; McCubbin, Norman; McFarlane, Kenneth; Mcfayden, Josh; Mchedlidze, Gvantsa; McMahon, Steve; McPherson, Robert; Meade, Andrew; Mechnich, Joerg; Medinnis, Michael; Meehan, Samuel; Mehlhase, Sascha; Mehta, Andrew; Meier, Karlheinz; Meineck, Christian; Meirose, Bernhard; Melachrinos, Constantinos; Mellado Garcia, Bruce Rafael; Meloni, Federico; Mengarelli, Alberto; Menke, Sven; Meoni, Evelin; Mercurio, Kevin Michael; Mergelmeyer, Sebastian; Meric, Nicolas; Mermod, Philippe; Merola, Leonardo; Meroni, Chiara; Merritt, Frank; Merritt, Hayes; Messina, Andrea; Metcalfe, Jessica; Mete, Alaettin Serhan; Meyer, Carsten; Meyer, Christopher; Meyer, Jean-Pierre; Meyer, Jochen; Middleton, Robin; Migas, Sylwia; Mijović, Liza; Mikenberg, Giora; Mikestikova, Marcela; Mikuž, Marko; Milic, Adriana; Miller, David; Mills, Corrinne; Milov, Alexander; Milstead, David; Milstein, Dmitry; Minaenko, Andrey; Minashvili, Irakli; Mincer, Allen; Mindur, Bartosz; Mineev, Mikhail; Ming, Yao; Mir, Lluisa-Maria; Mirabelli, Giovanni; Mitani, Takashi; Mitrevski, Jovan; Mitsou, Vasiliki A; Mitsui, Shingo; Miucci, Antonio; Miyagawa, Paul; Mjörnmark, Jan-Ulf; Moa, Torbjoern; Mochizuki, Kazuya; Mohapatra, Soumya; Mohr, Wolfgang; Molander, Simon; Moles-Valls, Regina; Mönig, Klaus; Monini, Caterina; Monk, James; Monnier, Emmanuel; Montejo Berlingen, Javier; Monticelli, Fernando; Monzani, Simone; Moore, Roger; Morange, Nicolas; Moreno, Deywis; Moreno Llácer, María; Morettini, Paolo; Morgenstern, Marcus; Morii, Masahiro; Moritz, Sebastian; Morley, Anthony Keith; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Morris, John; Morvaj, Ljiljana; Moser, Hans-Guenther; Mosidze, Maia; Moss, Josh; Motohashi, Kazuki; Mount, Richard; Mountricha, Eleni; Mouraviev, Sergei; Moyse, Edward; Muanza, Steve; Mudd, Richard; Mueller, Felix; Mueller, James; Mueller, Klemens; Mueller, Thibaut; Mueller, Timo; Muenstermann, Daniel; Munwes, Yonathan; Murillo Quijada, Javier Alberto; Murray, Bill; Musheghyan, Haykuhi; Musto, Elisa; Myagkov, Alexey; Myska, Miroslav; Nackenhorst, Olaf; Nadal, Jordi; Nagai, Koichi; Nagai, Ryo; Nagai, Yoshikazu; Nagano, Kunihiro; Nagarkar, Advait; Nagasaka, Yasushi; Nagel, Martin; Nairz, Armin Michael; Nakahama, Yu; Nakamura, Koji; Nakamura, Tomoaki; Nakano, Itsuo; Namasivayam, Harisankar; Nanava, Gizo; Narayan, Rohin; Nattermann, Till; Naumann, Thomas; Navarro, Gabriela; Nayyar, Ruchika; Neal, Homer; Nechaeva, Polina; Neep, Thomas James; Nef, Pascal Daniel; Negri, Andrea; Negri, Guido; Negrini, Matteo; Nektarijevic, Snezana; Nelson, Andrew; Nelson, Timothy Knight; Nemecek, Stanislav; Nemethy, Peter; Nepomuceno, Andre Asevedo; Nessi, Marzio; Neubauer, Mark; Neumann, Manuel; Neves, Ricardo; Nevski, Pavel; Newman, Paul; Nguyen, Duong Hai; Nickerson, Richard; Nicolaidou, Rosy; Nicquevert, Bertrand; Nielsen, Jason; Nikiforou, Nikiforos; Nikiforov, Andriy; Nikolaenko, Vladimir; Nikolic-Audit, Irena; Nikolics, Katalin; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Nilsson, Paul; Ninomiya, Yoichi; Nisati, Aleandro; Nisius, Richard; Nobe, Takuya; Nodulman, Lawrence; Nomachi, Masaharu; Nomidis, Ioannis; Norberg, Scarlet; Nordberg, Markus; Novgorodova, Olga; Nowak, Sebastian; Nozaki, Mitsuaki; Nozka, Libor; Ntekas, Konstantinos; Nunes Hanninger, Guilherme; Nunnemann, Thomas; Nurse, Emily; Nuti, Francesco; O'Brien, Brendan Joseph; O'grady, Fionnbarr; O'Neil, Dugan; O'Shea, Val; Oakham, Gerald; Oberlack, Horst; Obermann, Theresa; Ocariz, Jose; Ochi, Atsuhiko; Ochoa, Ines; Oda, Susumu; Odaka, Shigeru; Ogren, Harold; Oh, Alexander; Oh, Seog; Ohm, Christian; Ohman, Henrik; Okamura, Wataru; Okawa, Hideki; Okumura, Yasuyuki; Okuyama, Toyonobu; Olariu, Albert; Olchevski, Alexander; Olivares Pino, Sebastian Andres; Oliveira Damazio, Denis; Oliver Garcia, Elena; Olszewski, Andrzej; Olszowska, Jolanta; Onofre, António; Onyisi, Peter; Oram, Christopher; Oreglia, Mark; Oren, Yona; Orestano, Domizia; Orlando, Nicola; Oropeza Barrera, Cristina; Orr, Robert; Osculati, Bianca; Ospanov, Rustem; Otero y Garzon, Gustavo; Otono, Hidetoshi; Ouchrif, Mohamed; Ouellette, Eric; Ould-Saada, Farid; Ouraou, Ahmimed; Oussoren, Koen Pieter; Ouyang, Qun; Ovcharova, Ana; Owen, Mark; Ozcan, Veysi Erkcan; Ozturk, Nurcan; Pachal, Katherine; Pacheco Pages, Andres; Padilla Aranda, Cristobal; Pagáčová, Martina; Pagan Griso, Simone; Paganis, Efstathios; Pahl, Christoph; Paige, Frank; Pais, Preema; Pajchel, Katarina; Palacino, Gabriel; Palestini, Sandro; Palka, Marek; Pallin, Dominique; Palma, Alberto; Palmer, Jody; Pan, Yibin; Panagiotopoulou, Evgenia; Panduro Vazquez, William; Pani, Priscilla; Panikashvili, Natalia; Panitkin, Sergey; Pantea, Dan; Paolozzi, Lorenzo; Papadopoulou, Theodora; Papageorgiou, Konstantinos; Paramonov, Alexander; Paredes Hernandez, Daniela; Parker, Michael Andrew; Parodi, Fabrizio; Parsons, John; Parzefall, Ulrich; Pasqualucci, Enrico; Passaggio, Stefano; Passeri, Antonio; Pastore, Fernanda; Pastore, Francesca; Pásztor, Gabriella; Pataraia, Sophio; Patel, Nikhul; Pater, Joleen; Patricelli, Sergio; Pauly, Thilo; Pearce, James; Pedersen, Maiken; Pedraza Lopez, Sebastian; Pedro, Rute; Peleganchuk, Sergey; Pelikan, Daniel; Peng, Haiping; Penning, Bjoern; Penwell, John; Perepelitsa, Dennis; Perez Codina, Estel; Pérez García-Estañ, María Teresa; Perez Reale, Valeria; Perini, Laura; Pernegger, Heinz; Perrino, Roberto; Peschke, Richard; Peshekhonov, Vladimir; Peters, Krisztian; Peters, Yvonne; Petersen, Brian; Petersen, Troels; Petit, Elisabeth; Petridis, Andreas; Petridou, Chariclia; Petrolo, Emilio; Petrucci, Fabrizio; Pettersson, Nora Emilia; Pezoa, Raquel; Phillips, Peter William; Piacquadio, Giacinto; Pianori, Elisabetta; Picazio, Attilio; Piccaro, Elisa; Piccinini, Maurizio; Piegaia, Ricardo; Pignotti, David; Pilcher, James; Pilkington, Andrew; Pina, João Antonio; Pinamonti, Michele; Pinder, Alex; Pinfold, James; Pingel, Almut; Pinto, Belmiro; Pires, Sylvestre; Pitt, Michael; Pizio, Caterina; Plazak, Lukas; Pleier, Marc-Andre; Pleskot, Vojtech; Plotnikova, Elena; Plucinski, Pawel; Poddar, Sahill; Podlyski, Fabrice; Poettgen, Ruth; Poggioli, Luc; Pohl, David-leon; Pohl, Martin; Polesello, Giacomo; Policicchio, Antonio; Polifka, Richard; Polini, Alessandro; Pollard, Christopher Samuel; Polychronakos, Venetios; Pommès, Kathy; Pontecorvo, Ludovico; Pope, Bernard; Popeneciu, Gabriel Alexandru; Popovic, Dragan; Poppleton, Alan; Portell Bueso, Xavier; Pospisil, Stanislav; Potamianos, Karolos; Potrap, Igor; Potter, Christina; Potter, Christopher; Poulard, Gilbert; Poveda, Joaquin; Pozdnyakov, Valery; Pralavorio, Pascal; Pranko, Aliaksandr; Prasad, Srivas; Pravahan, Rishiraj; Prell, Soeren; Price, Darren; Price, Joe; Price, Lawrence; Prieur, Damien; Primavera, Margherita; Proissl, Manuel; Prokofiev, Kirill; Prokoshin, Fedor; Protopapadaki, Eftychia-sofia; Protopopescu, Serban; Proudfoot, James; Przybycien, Mariusz; Przysiezniak, Helenka; Ptacek, Elizabeth; Puddu, Daniele; Pueschel, Elisa; Puldon, David; Purohit, Milind; Puzo, Patrick; Qian, Jianming; Qin, Gang; Qin, Yang; Quadt, Arnulf; Quarrie, David; Quayle, William; Queitsch-Maitland, Michaela; Quilty, Donnchadha; Qureshi, Anum; Radeka, Veljko; Radescu, Voica; Radhakrishnan, Sooraj Krishnan; Radloff, Peter; Rados, Pere; Ragusa, Francesco; Rahal, Ghita; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Rammensee, Michael; Randle-Conde, Aidan Sean; Rangel-Smith, Camila; Rao, Kanury; Rauscher, Felix; Rave, Tobias Christian; Ravenscroft, Thomas; Raymond, Michel; Read, Alexander Lincoln; Readioff, Nathan Peter; Rebuzzi, Daniela; Redelbach, Andreas; Redlinger, George; Reece, Ryan; Reeves, Kendall; Rehnisch, Laura; Reisin, Hernan; Relich, Matthew; Rembser, Christoph; Ren, Huan; Ren, Zhongliang; Renaud, Adrien; Rescigno, Marco; Resconi, Silvia; Rezanova, Olga; Reznicek, Pavel; Rezvani, Reyhaneh; Richter, Robert; Ridel, Melissa; Rieck, Patrick; Rieger, Julia; Rijssenbeek, Michael; Rimoldi, Adele; Rinaldi, Lorenzo; Ritsch, Elmar; Riu, Imma; Rizatdinova, Flera; Rizvi, Eram; Robertson, Steven; Robichaud-Veronneau, Andree; Robinson, Dave; Robinson, James; Robson, Aidan; Roda, Chiara; Rodrigues, Luis; Roe, Shaun; Røhne, Ole; Rolli, Simona; Romaniouk, Anatoli; Romano, Marino; Romero Adam, Elena; Rompotis, Nikolaos; Ronzani, Manfredi; Roos, Lydia; Ros, Eduardo; Rosati, Stefano; Rosbach, Kilian; Rose, Matthew; Rose, Peyton; Rosendahl, Peter Lundgaard; Rosenthal, Oliver; Rossetti, Valerio; Rossi, Elvira; Rossi, Leonardo Paolo; Rosten, Rachel; Rotaru, Marina; Roth, Itamar; Rothberg, Joseph; Rousseau, David; Royon, Christophe; Rozanov, Alexandre; Rozen, Yoram; Ruan, Xifeng; Rubbo, Francesco; Rubinskiy, Igor; Rud, Viacheslav; Rudolph, Christian; Rudolph, Matthew Scott; Rühr, Frederik; Ruiz-Martinez, Aranzazu; Rurikova, Zuzana; Rusakovich, Nikolai; Ruschke, Alexander; Rutherfoord, John; Ruthmann, Nils; Ryabov, Yury; Rybar, Martin; Rybkin, Grigori; Ryder, Nick; Saavedra, Aldo; Sacerdoti, Sabrina; Saddique, Asif; Sadeh, Iftach; Sadrozinski, Hartmut; Sadykov, Renat; Safai Tehrani, Francesco; Sakamoto, Hiroshi; Sakurai, Yuki; Salamanna, Giuseppe; Salamon, Andrea; Saleem, Muhammad; Salek, David; Sales De Bruin, Pedro Henrique; Salihagic, Denis; Salnikov, Andrei; Salt, José; Salvatore, Daniela; Salvatore, Pasquale Fabrizio; Salvucci, Antonio; Salzburger, Andreas; Sampsonidis, Dimitrios; Sanchez, Arturo; Sánchez, Javier; Sanchez Martinez, Victoria; Sandaker, Heidi; Sandbach, Ruth Laura; Sander, Heinz Georg; Sanders, Michiel; Sandhoff, Marisa; Sandoval, Tanya; Sandoval, Carlos; Sandstroem, Rikard; Sankey, Dave; Sansoni, Andrea; Santoni, Claudio; Santonico, Rinaldo; Santos, Helena; Santoyo Castillo, Itzebelt; Sapp, Kevin; Sapronov, Andrey; Saraiva, João; Sarrazin, Bjorn; Sartisohn, Georg; Sasaki, Osamu; Sasaki, Yuichi; Sauvage, Gilles; Sauvan, Emmanuel; Savard, Pierre; Savu, Dan Octavian; Sawyer, Craig; Sawyer, Lee; Saxon, David; Saxon, James; Sbarra, Carla; Sbrizzi, Antonio; Scanlon, Tim; Scannicchio, Diana; Scarcella, Mark; Scarfone, Valerio; Schaarschmidt, Jana; Schacht, Peter; Schaefer, Douglas; Schaefer, Ralph; Schaepe, Steffen; Schaetzel, Sebastian; Schäfer, Uli; Schaffer, Arthur; Schaile, Dorothee; Schamberger, R. Dean; Scharf, Veit; Schegelsky, Valery; Scheirich, Daniel; Schernau, Michael; Scherzer, Max; Schiavi, Carlo; Schieck, Jochen; Schillo, Christian; Schioppa, Marco; Schlenker, Stefan; Schmidt, Evelyn; Schmieden, Kristof; Schmitt, Christian; Schmitt, Sebastian; Schneider, Basil; Schnellbach, Yan Jie; Schnoor, Ulrike; Schoeffel, Laurent; Schoening, Andre; Schoenrock, Bradley Daniel; Schorlemmer, Andre Lukas; Schott, Matthias; Schouten, Doug; Schovancova, Jaroslava; Schramm, Steven; Schreyer, Manuel; Schroeder, Christian; Schuh, Natascha; Schultens, Martin Johannes; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Schulz, Holger; Schumacher, Markus; Schumm, Bruce; Schune, Philippe; Schwanenberger, Christian; Schwartzman, Ariel; Schwegler, Philipp; Schwemling, Philippe; Schwienhorst, Reinhard; Schwindling, Jerome; Schwindt, Thomas; Schwoerer, Maud; Sciacca, Gianfranco; Scifo, Estelle; Sciolla, Gabriella; Scott, Bill; Scuri, Fabrizio; Scutti, Federico; Searcy, Jacob; Sedov, George; Sedykh, Evgeny; Seidel, Sally; Seiden, Abraham; Seifert, Frank; Seixas, José; Sekhniaidze, Givi; Sekula, Stephen; Selbach, Karoline Elfriede; Seliverstov, Dmitry; Sellers, Graham; Semprini-Cesari, Nicola; Serfon, Cedric; Serin, Laurent; Serkin, Leonid; Serre, Thomas; Seuster, Rolf; Severini, Horst; Sfiligoj, Tina; Sforza, Federico; Sfyrla, Anna; Shabalina, Elizaveta; Shamim, Mansoora; Shan, Lianyou; Shang, Ruo-yu; Shank, James; Shapiro, Marjorie; Shatalov, Pavel; Shaw, Kate; Shehu, Ciwake Yusufu; Sherwood, Peter; Shi, Liaoshan; Shimizu, Shima; Shimmin, Chase Owen; Shimojima, Makoto; Shiyakova, Mariya; Shmeleva, Alevtina; Shochet, Mel; Short, Daniel; Shrestha, Suyog; Shulga, Evgeny; Shupe, Michael; Shushkevich, Stanislav; Sicho, Petr; Sidiropoulou, Ourania; Sidorov, Dmitri; Sidoti, Antonio; Siegert, Frank; Sijacki, Djordje; Silva, José; Silver, Yiftah; Silverstein, Daniel; Silverstein, Samuel; Simak, Vladislav; Simard, Olivier; Simic, Ljiljana; Simion, Stefan; Simioni, Eduard; Simmons, Brinick; Simoniello, Rosa; Simonyan, Margar; Sinervo, Pekka; Sinev, Nikolai; Sipica, Valentin; Siragusa, Giovanni; Sircar, Anirvan; Sisakyan, Alexei; Sivoklokov, Serguei; Sjölin, Jörgen; Sjursen, Therese; Skottowe, Hugh Philip; Skovpen, Kirill; Skubic, Patrick; Slater, Mark; Slavicek, Tomas; Sliwa, Krzysztof; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Smart, Ben; Smestad, Lillian; Smirnov, Sergei; Smirnov, Yury; Smirnova, Lidia; Smirnova, Oxana; Smith, Kenway; Smizanska, Maria; Smolek, Karel; Snesarev, Andrei; Snidero, Giacomo; Snyder, Scott; Sobie, Randall; Socher, Felix; Soffer, Abner; Soh, Dart-yin; Solans, Carlos; Solar, Michael; Solc, Jaroslav; Soldatov, Evgeny; Soldevila, Urmila; Solodkov, Alexander; Soloshenko, Alexei; Solovyanov, Oleg; Solovyev, Victor; Sommer, Philip; Song, Hong Ye; Soni, Nitesh; Sood, Alexander; Sopczak, Andre; Sopko, Bruno; Sopko, Vit; Sorin, Veronica; Sosebee, Mark; Soualah, Rachik; Soueid, Paul; Soukharev, Andrey; South, David; Spagnolo, Stefania; Spanò, Francesco; Spearman, William Robert; Spettel, Fabian; Spighi, Roberto; Spigo, Giancarlo; Spiller, Laurence Anthony; Spousta, Martin; Spreitzer, Teresa; Spurlock, Barry; St Denis, Richard Dante; Staerz, Steffen; Stahlman, Jonathan; Stamen, Rainer; Stamm, Soren; Stanecka, Ewa; Stanek, Robert; Stanescu, Cristian; Stanescu-Bellu, Madalina; Stanitzki, Marcel Michael; Stapnes, Steinar; Starchenko, Evgeny; Stark, Jan; Staroba, Pavel; Starovoitov, Pavel; Staszewski, Rafal; Stavina, Pavel; Steinberg, Peter; Stelzer, Bernd; Stelzer, Harald Joerg; Stelzer-Chilton, Oliver; Stenzel, Hasko; Stern, Sebastian; Stewart, Graeme; Stillings, Jan Andre; Stockton, Mark; Stoebe, Michael; Stoicea, Gabriel; Stolte, Philipp; Stonjek, Stefan; Stradling, Alden; Straessner, Arno; Stramaglia, Maria Elena; Strandberg, Jonas; Strandberg, Sara; Strandlie, Are; Strauss, Emanuel; Strauss, Michael; Strizenec, Pavol; Ströhmer, Raimund; Strom, David; Stroynowski, Ryszard; Struebig, Antonia; Stucci, Stefania Antonia; Stugu, Bjarne; Styles, Nicholas Adam; Su, Dong; Su, Jun; Subramaniam, Rajivalochan; Succurro, Antonella; Sugaya, Yorihito; Suhr, Chad; Suk, Michal; Sulin, Vladimir; Sultansoy, Saleh; Sumida, Toshi; Sun, Siyuan; Sun, Xiaohu; Sundermann, Jan Erik; Suruliz, Kerim; Susinno, Giancarlo; Sutton, Mark; Suzuki, Yu; Svatos, Michal; Swedish, Stephen; Swiatlowski, Maximilian; Sykora, Ivan; Sykora, Tomas; Ta, Duc; Taccini, Cecilia; Tackmann, Kerstin; Taenzer, Joe; Taffard, Anyes; Tafirout, Reda; Taiblum, Nimrod; Takai, Helio; Takashima, Ryuichi; Takeda, Hiroshi; Takeshita, Tohru; Takubo, Yosuke; Talby, Mossadek; Talyshev, Alexey; Tam, Jason; Tan, Kong Guan; Tanaka, Junichi; Tanaka, Reisaburo; Tanaka, Satoshi; Tanaka, Shuji; Tanasijczuk, Andres Jorge; Tannenwald, Benjamin Bordy; Tannoury, Nancy; Tapprogge, Stefan; Tarem, Shlomit; Tarrade, Fabien; Tartarelli, Giuseppe Francesco; Tas, Petr; Tasevsky, Marek; Tashiro, Takuya; Tassi, Enrico; Tavares Delgado, Ademar; Tayalati, Yahya; Taylor, Frank; Taylor, Geoffrey; Taylor, Wendy; Teischinger, Florian Alfred; Teixeira Dias Castanheira, Matilde; Teixeira-Dias, Pedro; Temming, Kim Katrin; Ten Kate, Herman; Teng, Ping-Kun; Teoh, Jia Jian; Terada, Susumu; Terashi, Koji; Terron, Juan; Terzo, Stefano; Testa, Marianna; Teuscher, Richard; Therhaag, Jan; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothée; Thomas, Juergen; Thomas-Wilsker, Joshuha; Thompson, Emily; Thompson, Paul; Thompson, Peter; Thompson, Ray; Thompson, Stan; Thomsen, Lotte Ansgaard; Thomson, Evelyn; Thomson, Mark; Thong, Wai Meng; Thun, Rudolf; Tian, Feng; Tibbetts, Mark James; Tikhomirov, Vladimir; Tikhonov, Yury; Timoshenko, Sergey; Tiouchichine, Elodie; Tipton, Paul; Tisserant, Sylvain; Todorov, Theodore; Todorova-Nova, Sharka; Toggerson, Brokk; Tojo, Junji; Tokár, Stanislav; Tokushuku, Katsuo; Tollefson, Kirsten; Tomlinson, Lee; Tomoto, Makoto; Tompkins, Lauren; Toms, Konstantin; Topilin, Nikolai; Torrence, Eric; Torres, Heberth; Torró Pastor, Emma; Toth, Jozsef; Touchard, Francois; Tovey, Daniel; Tran, Huong Lan; Trefzger, Thomas; Tremblet, Louis; Tricoli, Alessandro; Trigger, Isabel Marian; Trincaz-Duvoid, Sophie; Tripiana, Martin; Trischuk, William; Trocmé, Benjamin; Troncon, Clara; Trottier-McDonald, Michel; Trovatelli, Monica; True, Patrick; Trzebinski, Maciej; Trzupek, Adam; Tsarouchas, Charilaos; Tseng, Jeffrey; Tsiareshka, Pavel; Tsionou, Dimitra; Tsipolitis, Georgios; Tsirintanis, Nikolaos; Tsiskaridze, Shota; Tsiskaridze, Vakhtang; Tskhadadze, Edisher; Tsukerman, Ilya; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Tsuno, Soshi; Tsybychev, Dmitri; Tudorache, Alexandra; Tudorache, Valentina; Tuna, Alexander Naip; Tupputi, Salvatore; Turchikhin, Semen; Turecek, Daniel; Turk Cakir, Ilkay; Turra, Ruggero; Tuts, Michael; Tykhonov, Andrii; Tylmad, Maja; Tyndel, Mike; Uchida, Kirika; Ueda, Ikuo; Ueno, Ryuichi; Ughetto, Michael; Ugland, Maren; Uhlenbrock, Mathias; Ukegawa, Fumihiko; Unal, Guillaume; Undrus, Alexander; Unel, Gokhan; Ungaro, Francesca; Unno, Yoshinobu; Unverdorben, Christopher; Urbaniec, Dustin; Urquijo, Phillip; Usai, Giulio; Usanova, Anna; Vacavant, Laurent; Vacek, Vaclav; Vachon, Brigitte; Valencic, Nika; Valentinetti, Sara; Valero, Alberto; Valery, Loic; Valkar, Stefan; Valladolid Gallego, Eva; Vallecorsa, Sofia; Valls Ferrer, Juan Antonio; Van Den Wollenberg, Wouter; Van Der Deijl, Pieter; van der Geer, Rogier; van der Graaf, Harry; Van Der Leeuw, Robin; van der Ster, Daniel; van Eldik, Niels; van Gemmeren, Peter; Van Nieuwkoop, Jacobus; van Vulpen, Ivo; van Woerden, Marius Cornelis; Vanadia, Marco; Vandelli, Wainer; Vanguri, Rami; Vaniachine, Alexandre; Vankov, Peter; Vannucci, Francois; Vardanyan, Gagik; Vari, Riccardo; Varnes, Erich; Varol, Tulin; Varouchas, Dimitris; Vartapetian, Armen; Varvell, Kevin; Vazeille, Francois; Vazquez Schroeder, Tamara; Veatch, Jason; Veloso, Filipe; Veneziano, Stefano; Ventura, Andrea; Ventura, Daniel; Venturi, Manuela; Venturi, Nicola; Venturini, Alessio; Vercesi, Valerio; Verducci, Monica; Verkerke, Wouter; Vermeulen, Jos; Vest, Anja; Vetterli, Michel; Viazlo, Oleksandr; Vichou, Irene; Vickey, Trevor; Vickey Boeriu, Oana Elena; Viehhauser, Georg; Viel, Simon; Vigne, Ralph; Villa, Mauro; Villaplana Perez, Miguel; Vilucchi, Elisabetta; Vincter, Manuella; Vinogradov, Vladimir; Virzi, Joseph; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Vives Vaque, Francesc; Vlachos, Sotirios; Vladoiu, Dan; Vlasak, Michal; Vogel, Adrian; Vogel, Marcelo; Vokac, Petr; Volpi, Guido; Volpi, Matteo; von der Schmitt, Hans; von Radziewski, Holger; von Toerne, Eckhard; Vorobel, Vit; Vorobev, Konstantin; Vos, Marcel; Voss, Rudiger; Vossebeld, Joost; Vranjes, Nenad; Vranjes Milosavljevic, Marija; Vrba, Vaclav; Vreeswijk, Marcel; Vu Anh, Tuan; Vuillermet, Raphael; Vukotic, Ilija; Vykydal, Zdenek; Wagner, Peter; Wagner, Wolfgang; Wahlberg, Hernan; Wahrmund, Sebastian; Wakabayashi, Jun; Walder, James; Walker, Rodney; Walkowiak, Wolfgang; Wall, Richard; Waller, Peter; Walsh, Brian; Wang, Chao; Wang, Chiho; Wang, Fuquan; Wang, Haichen; Wang, Hulin; Wang, Jike; Wang, Jin; Wang, Kuhan; Wang, Rui; Wang, Song-Ming; Wang, Tan; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Wanotayaroj, Chaowaroj; Warburton, Andreas; Ward, Patricia; Wardrope, David Robert; Warsinsky, Markus; Washbrook, Andrew; Wasicki, Christoph; Watkins, Peter; Watson, Alan; Watson, Ian; Watson, Miriam; Watts, Gordon; Watts, Stephen; Waugh, Ben; Webb, Samuel; Weber, Michele; Weber, Stefan Wolf; Webster, Jordan S; Weidberg, Anthony; Weigell, Philipp; Weinert, Benjamin; Weingarten, Jens; Weiser, Christian; Weits, Hartger; Wells, Phillippa; Wenaus, Torre; Wendland, Dennis; Weng, Zhili; Wengler, Thorsten; Wenig, Siegfried; Wermes, Norbert; Werner, Matthias; Werner, Per; Wessels, Martin; Wetter, Jeffrey; Whalen, Kathleen; White, Andrew; White, Martin; White, Ryan; White, Sebastian; Whiteson, Daniel; Wicke, Daniel; Wickens, Fred; Wiedenmann, Werner; Wielers, Monika; Wienemann, Peter; Wiglesworth, Craig; Wiik-Fuchs, Liv Antje Mari; Wijeratne, Peter Alexander; Wildauer, Andreas; Wildt, Martin Andre; Wilkens, Henric George; Will, Jonas Zacharias; Williams, Hugh; Williams, Sarah; Willis, Christopher; Willocq, Stephane; Wilson, Alan; Wilson, John; Wingerter-Seez, Isabelle; Winklmeier, Frank; Winter, Benedict Tobias; Wittgen, Matthias; Wittig, Tobias; Wittkowski, Josephine; Wollstadt, Simon Jakob; Wolter, Marcin Wladyslaw; Wolters, Helmut; Wosiek, Barbara; Wotschack, Jorg; Woudstra, Martin; Wozniak, Krzysztof; Wright, Michael; Wu, Mengqing; Wu, Sau Lan; Wu, Xin; Wu, Yusheng; Wulf, Evan; Wyatt, Terry Richard; Wynne, Benjamin; Xella, Stefania; Xiao, Meng; Xu, Da; Xu, Lailin; Yabsley, Bruce; Yacoob, Sahal; Yakabe, Ryota; Yamada, Miho; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Yamaguchi, Yohei; Yamamoto, Akira; Yamamoto, Kyoko; Yamamoto, Shimpei; Yamamura, Taiki; Yamanaka, Takashi; Yamauchi, Katsuya; Yamazaki, Yuji; Yan, Zhen; Yang, Haijun; Yang, Hongtao; Yang, Un-Ki; Yang, Yi; Yanush, Serguei; Yao, Liwen; Yao, Weiming; Yasu, Yoshiji; Yatsenko, Elena; Yau Wong, Kaven Henry; Ye, Jingbo; Ye, Shuwei; Yeletskikh, Ivan; Yen, Andy L; Yildirim, Eda; Yilmaz, Metin; Yoosoofmiya, Reza; Yorita, Kohei; Yoshida, Rikutaro; Yoshihara, Keisuke; Young, Charles; Young, Christopher John; Youssef, Saul; Yu, David Ren-Hwa; Yu, Jaehoon; Yu, Jiaming; Yu, Jie; Yuan, Li; Yurkewicz, Adam; Yusuff, Imran; Zabinski, Bartlomiej; Zaidan, Remi; Zaitsev, Alexander; Zaman, Aungshuman; Zambito, Stefano; Zanello, Lucia; Zanzi, Daniele; Zeitnitz, Christian; Zeman, Martin; Zemla, Andrzej; Zengel, Keith; Zenin, Oleg; Ženiš, Tibor; Zerwas, Dirk; Zevi della Porta, Giovanni; Zhang, Dongliang; Zhang, Fangzhou; Zhang, Huaqiao; Zhang, Jinlong; Zhang, Lei; Zhang, Xueyao; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zhao, Zhengguo; Zhemchugov, Alexey; Zhong, Jiahang; Zhou, Bing; Zhou, Lei; Zhou, Ning; Zhu, Cheng Guang; Zhu, Hongbo; Zhu, Junjie; Zhu, Yingchun; Zhuang, Xuai; Zhukov, Konstantin; Zibell, Andre; Zieminska, Daria; Zimine, Nikolai; Zimmermann, Christoph; Zimmermann, Robert; Zimmermann, Simone; Zimmermann, Stephanie; Zinonos, Zinonas; Ziolkowski, Michael; Zobernig, Georg; Zoccoli, Antonio; zur Nedden, Martin; Zurzolo, Giovanni; Zutshi, Vishnu; Zwalinski, Lukasz

    2014-09-24

    Results of a search for supersymmetry via direct production of third-generation squarks are reported, using $20.3$ fb$^{-1}$ of proton-proton collision data at $\\sqrt{s}$=8 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC in 2012. Two different analysis strategies based on monojet-like and $c$-tagged event selections are carried out to optimize the sensitivity for direct top squark pair production in the decay channel to a charm quark and the lightest neutralino ($\\tilde{t}_1 \\to c + \\tilde{\\chi}_{1}^{0}$) across the top squark--neutralino mass parameter space. No excess above the Standard Model background expectation is observed. The results are interpreted in the context of direct pair production of top squarks and presented in terms of exclusion limits in the ($m_{\\tilde{t}_1}$, $m_{\\tilde{\\chi}_{1}^{0}}$) parameter space. A top squark of mass up to about 240 GeV is excluded at 95$\\%$ confidence level for arbitrary neutralino masses, within the kinematic boundaries. Top squark masses up to 270 GeV are exclu...

  5. Miocene Antarctic Terrestrial Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashworth, A. C.; Lewis, A.; Marchant, D. R.

    2009-12-01

    The discovery of several locations in the Transantarctic Mountains that contain macrofossils and pollen is transforming our understanding of late Cenozoic Antarctica. The most southerly location is on the Beardmore Glacier (85.1°S) about 500 km from the South Pole. The environment was an active glacial margin in which plants, insects and freshwater mollusks inhabited the sand and gravel bars and small lakes on an outwash plain. In addition to leaves and wood of dwarf Nothofagus (Southern Beech) shrubs, achenes of Ranunculus (Buttercup), in situ cushion growth forms of mosses and a vascular plant, the assemblages contains various exoskeletal parts of carabid and curculionid beetles and a cyclorrhaphan fly, the shells of freshwater bivalve and gastropod species and a fish tooth. Initially the deposits were assigned a Pliocene age (3.5 Ma) but a mid- to early Miocene age is more probable (c. 14 - 25 Ma) based on correlation of fossil pollen from the deposits with 39Ar/40Ar dated pollen assemblages from the McMurdo Dry Valleys locations. The oldest location within the Dry Valleys also involved an active ice margin but was part of a valley system that was completely deglaciated for intervals long enough for thick paleosols to develop. The Friis Hills fossil deposits of the Taylor Valley region (77.8°S) are at least 19.76 Ma based on the 39Ar/40Ar age of a volcanic ash bed. The valley floor during the non-glacial phases had poorly-drained soils and the extensive development of mossy mires. Wood and leaves of Nothofagus are abundant in lacustrine deposits. The silts of shallow fluvial channels contain abundant megaspores and spiky leaves of the aquatic lycopod Isoetes (Quillwort). Fossils of beetles are also present in these deposits. During the glacial phases, proglacial lakes were surrounded by dwarfed, deciduous Nothofagus shrubs. The youngest fossils recovered from the Dry Valleys are from the Olympus Range (77.5°S) with an age of 14.07 Ma. The environment was an alpine lake that formed behind a recessional moraine. The fossils are mostly those of freshwater organisms including numerous species of diatoms and an ostracod species in which the soft anatomy is preserved. The base of the lake is marked by a moss bed with exceptionally well-preserved stems and leaves of the extant species Drepanocladus longifolius. Pollen evidence from the Cape Roberts borehole in the Ross Sea basin suggests that tundra existed from the Oligocene to the Early Miocene. Fossil evidence from the Dry Valleys locations indicates that organisms that could not inhabit Antarctica today persisted until c. 14 Ma. At 14 Ma there was a shift in glacial regimes from wet- to cold-based, marking a profound and abrupt climatic shift. We hypothesize that this climate change from warmer and wetter to colder and drier conditions caused the extinction of the tundra biota. It seems probable that at least some of the mid-Miocene fossils are of organisms whose descendants evolved in Antarctica during the Paleogene or earlier. An important consequence of this hypothesis is that the Cenozoic climate of Antarctica was warm enough until the mid-Miocene to support vascular plants and insects. This research was funded by NSF OPP 0739693.

  6. Realm of Matrices

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    harmonic analysis and complex analysis, in ... gebra describes not only the study of linear transforma- tions and .... special case of the Jordan canonical form of matrices. ..... Richard Bronson, Schaum's Outline Series Theory And Problems Of.

  7. Exploring ambiguous realms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemensen, Nana

    2016-01-01

    In Hang'ombe Village in rural Zambia, the relative lack of physical boundaries between the activities of family members allow children to observe the actions and discussions of adults on close hand, exposing them to the ambiguities of daily life. Children explore these ambiguities in their intera...... in their interactions, testing social roles and conventions. This article explores the vigilance and creative agency displayed by Hang'ombe children, in an environment spurring their acquisition of distinct social and discursive skills.......In Hang'ombe Village in rural Zambia, the relative lack of physical boundaries between the activities of family members allow children to observe the actions and discussions of adults on close hand, exposing them to the ambiguities of daily life. Children explore these ambiguities...

  8. Realm of the comets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weissman, P.R.

    1987-01-01

    Studies of Jovian perturbations of the orbits of long-period comets led to the concept of the Oort cloud of 180 billion comets at 50,000-150,000 AU from the sun. Several comets are induced to move toward the sun every million years by the passage of a star at a distance of a few light years. The location of the cloud has since been revised to 20,000-100,000 AU, and comets are now accepted as remnant material fron the proto-solar system epoch. The galactic disk and random, close-passing stars may also cause rare, large perturbations in the orbits of the cloud comets, sending large numbers of comets through the inner solar system. The resulting cometary storm is a candidate cause for the wholesale extinction of dinosaurs in the Cretaceous-Terniary transition due to large number of planetesimals, or one large comet, striking the earth, in a short period of time. The IRAS instruments have detected similar clouds of material around other stars

  9. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  10. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  11. Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-03-31

    IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

  12. Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

    2018-03-06

    The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

  13. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  14. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  15. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  16. From the Consulting Room to the Court Room? Taking the Clinical Model of Responsibility Without Blame into the Legal Realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Nicola; Pickard, Hanna

    2013-01-01

    Within contemporary penal philosophy, the view that punishment can only be justified if the offender is a moral agent who is responsible and hence blameworthy for their offence is one of the few areas on which a consensus prevails. In recent literature, this precept is associated with the retributive tradition, in the modern form of ‘just deserts’. Turning its back on the rehabilitative ideal, this tradition forges a strong association between the justification of punishment, the attribution of responsible agency in relation to the offence, and the appropriateness of blame. By contrast, effective clinical treatment of disorders of agency employs a conceptual framework in which ideas of responsibility and blameworthiness are clearly separated from what we call ‘affective blame’: the range of hostile, negative attitudes and emotions that are typical human responses to criminal or immoral conduct. We argue that taking this clinical model of ‘responsibility without blame’ into the legal realm offers new possibilities. Theoretically, it allows for the reconciliation of the idea of ‘just deserts’ with a rehabilitative ideal in penal philosophy. Punishment can be reconceived as consequences—typically negative but occasionally not, so long as they are serious and appropriate to the crime and the context—imposed in response to, by reason of, and in proportion to responsibility and blameworthiness, but without the hard treatment and stigma typical of affective blame. Practically, it suggests how sentencing and punishment can better avoid affective blame and instead further rehabilitative and related ends, while yet serving the demands of justice. PMID:24771953

  17. Customer Satisfaction versus Infrastructural Facilities in the Realm of Higher Education--A Case Study of Sri Venkateswara University Tirupati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janardhana, G.; Rajasekhar, Mamilla

    2012-01-01

    This article analyses the levels of students' satisfaction and how institution provides infrastructure facilities in the field of higher education. Infrastructure is the fastest growing segment of the higher education scenario. Universities play a very vital role in a country in terms of their potential. It contributes to employment and growth.…

  18. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  19. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  20. Macro-economic and energy scenarios for Japan through the long-term

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankin, Shuichi

    1986-03-01

    As one of studies and systems analyses on the role of VHTR and process heat utilization in future energy systems, long-term macro economic and energy scenarios of Japan until the year 2030 have been generated. This paper presents,; 1) the outline of the long-term macro econometric model and the energy system dynamics model by which these scenarios were generated, 2) back grounds and prospects on future societies of Japan and exogeneous assumptions for calculations, and 3) macro energy and economic scenarios generated. Reflecting the present economic prospects, these scenarios are seemed to be of extremely low-growth type, however, the role of VHTR and its energy systems could be prospected clealy to play a large and important role within these scenario regions. Basic philosophies of scenario generations are also mentioned in this paper. (author)

  1. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  2. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  3. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  4. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rosa, IMD

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available & Evolution, vol. 1: 1416-1419 Multiscale scenarios for nature futures Rosa IMD Pereira HM Ferrier S Alkemade R Acosta LA Akcakaya HR den Belder E Fazel AM Fujimori S Sitas NE ABSTRACT: Targets for human development are increasingly...

  5. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  6. Mars Scenario-Based Visioning: Logistical Optimization of Transportation Architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this conceptual design investigation is to examine transportation forecasts for future human Wu missions to Mars. - Scenario-Based Visioning is used to generate possible future demand projections. These scenarios are then coupled with availability, cost, and capacity parameters for indigenously designed Mars Transfer Vehicles (solar electric, nuclear thermal, and chemical propulsion types) and Earth-to-Orbit launch vehicles (current, future, and indigenous) to provide a cost-conscious dual-phase launch manifest to meet such future demand. A simulator named M-SAT (Mars Scenario Analysis Tool) is developed using this method. This simulation is used to examine three specific transportation scenarios to Mars: a limited "flaus and footprints" mission, a More ambitious scientific expedition similar to an expanded version of the Design Reference Mission from NASA, and a long-term colonization scenario. Initial results from the simulation indicate that chemical propulsion systems might be the architecture of choice for all three scenarios. With this mind, "what if' analyses were performed which indicated that if nuclear production costs were reduced by 30% for the colonization scenario, then the nuclear architecture would have a lower life cycle cost than the chemical. Results indicate that the most cost-effective solution to the Mars transportation problem is to plan for segmented development, this involves development of one vehicle at one opportunity and derivatives of that vehicle at subsequent opportunities.

  7. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  8. Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...

  9. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

  10. Nuclear Power Generation and CO2 Abatement Scenarios in Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Chang-Bin Huang; Fu-Kuang Ko

    2009-01-01

    Taiwan was the first country in Asia to announce "Nuclear-Free Homeland" in 2002. In 2008, the new government released the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines to lower the nationwide CO2 emissions some time between 2016 and 2020 back to the level of year 2008, further abatement of CO2 emissions is planed in year 2025 when CO2 emissions will decrease to the level of year 2000. Besides, under consideration of the issues of energy, environment and economics (3E), the new go...

  11. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  12. Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

    2013-01-01

    For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

  13. Comparing long term energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cumo, M.; Simbolotti, G.

    2001-01-01

    Major projection studies by international organizations and senior analysts have been compared with reference to individual key parameters (population, energy demand/supply, resources, technology, emissions and global warming) to understand trends and implications of the different scenarios. Then, looking at the long term (i.e., 2050 and beyond), parameters and trends have been compared together to understand and quantify whether and when possible crisis or market turbulence might occur due to shortage of resources or environmental problems [it

  14. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  15. Advanced scenarios for ITER operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sips, A.C.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Plasmaphysik, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    In thermonuclear fusion research using magnetic confinement, the tokamak is the leading candidate for achieving conditions required for a reactor. An international experiment, ITER is proposed as the next essential and critical step on the path to demonstrating the scientific and technological feasibility of fusion energy. ITER is to produce and study plasmas dominated by self heating. This would give unique opportunities to explore, in reactor relevant conditions, the physics of {alpha}-particle heating, plasma turbulence and turbulent transport, stability limits to the plasma pressure and exhaust of power and particles. Important new results obtained in experiments, theory and modelling, enable an improved understanding of the physical processes occurring in tokamak plasmas and give enhanced confidence in ITER achieving its goals. In particular, progress has been made in research to raise the performance of tokamaks, aimed to extend the discharge pulse length towards steady-state operation (advanced scenarios). Standard tokamak discharges have a current density increasing monotonically towards the centre of the plasma. Advanced scenarios on the other hand use a modified current density profile. Different advanced scenarios range from (i) plasmas that sustain a central region with a flat current density profile (zero magnetic shear), capable of operating stationary at high plasma pressure, to (ii) discharges with an off axis maximum of the current density profile (reversed magnetic shear in the core), able to form internal transport barriers, to increase the confinement of the plasma. The physics of advanced tokamak discharges is described, together with an overview of recent results from different tokamak experiments. International collaboration between experiments aims to provide a better understanding, control and optimisation of these plasmas. The ability to explore advanced scenarios in ITER is very desirable, in order to verify the result obtained in

  16. Table 1: Biofuels simulation scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — A spreadsheet containing information used to generate Table 1. Agricultural Market sector results presented in the spreadsheet were generated elsewhere (non-EPA) and...

  17. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  18. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

    2014-01-01

    Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  19. Why natural disaster planning scenarios are often so disastrously wrong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verosub, K. L.

    2017-12-01

    Taken together the four hurricanes that impacted the United States in the summer of 2017 demonstrate the difficulties involved in trying to plan for any natural disaster, not simply a major hurricane. They also highlight the extraordinary degree to which small and/or random variations in initial conditions can have enormous consequences on the outcome of an event and on the ability of a society to respond to it. For example, if Harvey had been moving faster, it would have meant less rainfall and hence less flooding in the Houston area whereas a slight change in the path of Irma would have significantly affected which portions of the Florida peninsula would have experienced greater or lesser devastation. In the case of Marie, hurricane intensity and path as well as the terrain in Puerto Rico and the inherent state of its infrastructure greatly complicated relief and recovery efforts there. An additional factor that makes planning scenarios so difficult to develop is that major natural disasters can often be analyzed as a sequence of events. At each juncture in the sequence, the event might evolve along two or more very different pathways, which can lead to different outcomes. Sometimes, as with Nate, an event evolves more or less "as expected" and the planning scenario does what it was supposed to do, namely, help people respond to the event. But to a much greater extent than is usually recognized, small or random variations can drive an event off its expected trajectory and into a response realm that "no one could have foreseen." Even worse is when those small or random variations allow an event to bifurcate and follow two or more different pathways simultaneously, leading to a cascading disaster that totally overwhelms whatever planning and preparation has been put in place. Perhaps the main lessons to be learned from these storms is that planning for any disaster requires greater recognition of the importance of small or random factors and greater appreciation of

  20. Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico

    2018-04-01

    A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Efficient renewable energy scenarios study for Victoria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, Graham

    1991-01-01

    This study examines the possible evolution of Victorian energy markets over the 1998-2030 period from technical, economic and environmental perspectives. The focus is on the technical and economic potential over the study period for renewable energy and energy efficiency to increase their share of energy markets, through their economic competitiveness with the non-renewables of oil, gas and fossil fulled electricity. The study identifies a range of energy options that have a lower impact on carbon dioxide emissions that current projections for the Victorian energy sector, together with the savings in energy, dollars and carbon dioxide emissions. In addition the macroeconomic implications of the energy paths are estimated. Specifically it examines a scenario (R-efficient renewable) where energy efficiency and renewable energy sources realise their estimated economic potential to displace non-renewable energy over the 1988-2030 period. In addition, a scenario (T-Toronto) is examined where energy markets are pushed somewhat harder, but again on an economic basis, so that what is called the Toronto target of reducing 1988 carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions by 20 per cent by 2005 is attained. It is concluded that over the next forty years there is substantial economic potential in Victoria for significant gains from energy efficiency in all sectors - residential, commercial, industrial and transport - and contributions from renewable energy both in those sectors and in electricity generations. 7 figs., 5 tabs

  2. Environmental evaluation of waste management scenarios - significance of the boundaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghinea, C.; Petraru, M.; Bressers, Johannes T.A.; Gavrilescu, M.

    2012-01-01

    Life cycle concept was applied to analyse and assess some municipal solid waste (MSW) management scenarios in terms of environmental impacts, particularised for Iasi city, Romania, where approximately 380 kg/cap/yr of waste are generated. Currently, the management processes include temporary

  3. Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

    2017-02-15

    During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

  4. Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghanadan, Rebecca; Koomey, J.G.

    2005-01-01

    This paper develops and analyzes four energy scenarios for California that are both exploratory and quantitative. The business-as-usual scenario represents a pathway guided by outcomes and expectations emerging from California's energy crisis. Three alternative scenarios represent contexts where clean energy plays a greater role in California's energy system: Split Public is driven by local and individual activities; Golden State gives importance to integrated state planning; Patriotic Energy represents a national drive to increase energy independence. Future energy consumption, composition of electricity generation, energy diversity, and greenhouse gas emissions are analyzed for each scenario through 2035. Energy savings, renewable energy, and transportation activities are identified as promising opportunities for achieving alternative energy pathways in California. A combined approach that brings together individual and community activities with state and national policies leads to the largest energy savings, increases in energy diversity, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Critical challenges in California's energy pathway over the next decades identified by the scenario analysis include dominance of the transportation sector, dependence on fossil fuels, emissions of greenhouse gases, accounting for electricity imports, and diversity of the electricity sector. The paper concludes with a set of policy lessons revealed from the California energy scenarios

  5. Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali

    2010-01-01

    Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

  6. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H; Bergmark, M

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  7. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

  8. A new genus and species of winter stoneflies (Plecoptera: Capniidae) from Southwest China, with a commented checklist of the family in the Oriental Realm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murányi, Dávid; Li, Weihai; Yang, Ding

    2015-12-22

    A new genus and species of the family Capniidae (Plecoptera), Sinocapnia kuankuoshui gen. n., sp. n. is described from the adult male and a female collected in Guizhou Province of southwest China. The new taxon is distinguished from all extant Capniidae genera and the assemblage of species currently included in Capnia sensu lato by combination of unique genitalic, wing, and thoracic sclerites characters. No closely related taxon is indicated on the basis of morphological characters. An annotated checklist of the family Capniidae from the Oriental Realm is given.

  9. Postprocessing of Accidental Scenarios by Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Di Maio

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis (IDPSA of dynamic systems calls for the development of efficient methods for accidental scenarios generation. The necessary consideration of failure events timing and sequencing along the scenarios requires the number of scenarios to be generated to increase with respect to conventional PSA. Consequently, their postprocessing for retrieving safety relevant information regarding the system behavior is challenged because of the large amount of generated scenarios that makes the computational cost for scenario postprocessing enormous and the retrieved information difficult to interpret. In the context of IDPSA, the interpretation consists in the classification of the generated scenarios as safe, failed, Near Misses (NMs, and Prime Implicants (PIs. To address this issue, in this paper we propose the use of an ensemble of Semi-Supervised Self-Organizing Maps (SSSOMs whose outcomes are combined by a locally weighted aggregation according to two strategies: a locally weighted aggregation and a decision tree based aggregation. In the former, we resort to the Local Fusion (LF principle for accounting the classification reliability of the different SSSOM classifiers, whereas in the latter we build a classification scheme to select the appropriate classifier (or ensemble of classifiers, for the type of scenario to be classified. The two strategies are applied for the postprocessing of the accidental scenarios of a dynamic U-Tube Steam Generator (UTSG.

  10. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  11. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO 2 emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO 2 emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO 2 emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the Commission's burden sharing proposal) and to 13.7% in 2030, compared with the 10.3% share observed in 2006

  12. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  13. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-01-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  14. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  15. Simulation of regional day-ahead PV power forecast scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nuno, Edgar; Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2017-01-01

    Uncertainty associated with Photovoltaic (PV) generation can have a significant impact on real-time planning and operation of power systems. This obstacle is commonly handled using multiple forecast realizations, obtained using for example forecast ensembles and/or probabilistic forecasts, often...... at the expense of a high computational burden. Alternatively, some power system applications may require realistic forecasts rather than actual estimates; able to capture the uncertainty of weatherdriven generation. To this end, we propose a novel methodology to generate day-ahead forecast scenarios of regional...... PV production matching the spatio-temporal characteristics while preserving the statistical properties of actual records....

  16. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2014-01-01

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

  17. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

  18. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  19. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  20. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  1. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  3. Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

    2002-01-01

    Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

  4. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

  5. Kyoto Protocol Objectives in Croatia Energy Planning: Nuclear Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duic, N.; Bogdan, Z.; Juretic, F.; Zeljko, M.

    2002-01-01

    Croatia as an Annex I country of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and a country that has pledged in the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol to reduce its greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions by 5% from the pre-transition level by the budget period 2008-12, will have to envisage a new energy strategy. Compared to the energy consumption collapse in some transitional countries like Russia and Ukraine, Croatia has passed through a relatively limited long term reduction of GHG emissions since 1990 because of higher efficiency of its pre-transition economy. It is expected that in case of business as usual scenario it will breach the Kyoto target in 2003 since the demand for energy will be high, especially as the income continues to rise, particularly in domestic use for heating, for transport and for electricity generation. Several scenarios of developing energy system are compared from the point of view of GHG emissions. The energy sector that will most probably be the most influenced by the UNFCCC objectives is electricity generation. Several scenarios are compared. The cost-effective scenario expects a mixture of coal and gas fired power plants to be built to satisfy the new demand and to replace the old power plants that are being decommissioned. More Kyoto friendly scenario envisages the construction of mostly nuclear power plants in the future, while decommissioning the old ones as planned, and is compared to the others from the GHG emissions point of view. The conclusion is that by measures tackling only electricity generation it will not be possible to keep GHG emission under the Kyoto target level, but that choosing the nuclear option might reduce significantly the cost of compliance. (author)

  6. Cooling methods of station blackout scenario for LWR plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    The objective of this study is to analyze the cooling method of station blackout scenario for both the BWR and PWR plants by RELAP5 code and to check the validity of the cooling method proposed by the utilities. In the BWR plant cooling scenario, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC), which is operated with high pressure steam from the reactor, injects cooling water into the reactor to keep the core water level. The steam generated in the core is released into the suppression pool at containment vessel to condense. To restrict the containment vessel pressure rising, the ventilation from the wet-well is operated. The scenario is analyzed by RELAP5 code. In the PWR plant scenario, the primary pressure is decreased by the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system operated with secondary side steam of the steam generators (SGs). And the core cooling is kept by the natural circulation flow at the primary loop. From the RELAP5 code analysis, it was shown that the primary system cooling was practicable by using the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system. (author)

  7. Cooling methods of station blackout scenario for LWR plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the cooling method of station blackout scenario for both the BWR and PWR plants by RELAP5 code and to check the validity of the cooling method proposed by the utilities. In the BWR plant cooling scenario, the Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System (RCIC), which is operated with high pressure steam from the reactor, injects cooling water into the reactor to keep the core water level. The steam generated in the core is released into the suppression pool at containment vessel to condense. To restrict the containment vessel pressure rising, the ventilation from the wet-well is operated. The scenario is analyzed by RELAP5 and CONTEMPT-LT code. In the PWR plant scenario, the primary pressure is decreased by the turbine-driven auxiliary feed water system operated with secondary side steam of the steam generators (SGs). And the core cooling is kept by the natural circulation flow at the primary loop. The analytical method of un-uniform flow behavior among the SG U-tubes, which affects the natural circulation flow rate, is developed. (author)

  8. Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, Edward R.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

  9. ITER safety and operational scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  10. Project scenarios for bitumen upgrading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koppel, P.E.; Mazurek, W.L.; Harji, A.

    2002-01-01

    The established reserves of Alberta's heavy oil resources are 178 billion barrels, and potential recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels. The challenge of production includes the logistics of recovery, upgrading and transportation to market. Utilization of the bitumen is not simple because bitumen is too viscous to transport by pipeline. In addition, it is not processable by most existing refineries unless it can be upgraded through dilution. This paper examined different factors regarding the economic viability of various upgrading methods of a wide range of bitumen feedstocks. The study also examined the sensitivity of refinery demand to the prices of these feedstocks, along with the competitiveness among bitumen-based feedstock and conventional crudes. Western Canada, Ontario and the PADD II district in the United States are the 3 major markets for western Canadian bitumen based feedstock, the demand for which depends on refinery configurations and asphalt demand. This paper described the following 4 generic scenarios that describe Alberta bitumen upgrading projects: (1) adjacent to open pit mines, (2) adjacent to steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) facilities, (3) remotely located from resource production at an existing refinery, and (4) pipeline bitumen. It was noted that producers should determine the best way to upgrade the bitumen to ensure there is an economic market for the product, but they should also be aware not to over process the bitumen so as not to leave existing refinery facilities under-utilized. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

  11. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  12. Scenarios and activities (Chapter 1)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available , the construction of access roads and traffic (especially heavy-duty vehicles using these and public roads throughout operations), rail and road transport of equipment and materials, water use, noise, light and gas emissions, visual impact, generated waste...

  13. A probabilistic scenario approach for developing improved Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+ baselines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malika Virah-Sawmy

    2015-07-01

    By generating robust probabilistic baseline scenarios, exponential smoothing models can facilitate the effectiveness of REDD+ payments, support a more efficient allocation of scarce conservation resources, and improve our understanding of effective forest conservation investments, also beyond REDD+.

  14. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  15. An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

  16. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  17. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role. - Highlights: • A scenario that incorporates mitigation measures considered most feasible by relevant Argentinean stakeholders generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 16% compared to BAU. • This scenario has a total additional cumulative cost of $22.8 Billion (2005 USD) along the period 2010–2050 • A high CO_2 price scenario in LEAP generates a CO_2e emissions reduction of 11.3% compared to the baseline • A high CO_2 price scenario in TIAM-ECN and GCAM generates reductions in CO_2e emissions of 37% and 94% respectively. The main reason for this difference between models includes varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. • Under climate policy, natural gas remains an important part of the energy mix, and although models agree that aggregate and proportional fossil fuel use declines, predictions vary as to the extent coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role moving forward.

  18. Radioactive waste management and disposal scenario for fusion power reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tabara, Takashi; Yamano, Naoki [Sumitomo Atomic Energy Industries Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Seki, Yasushi; Aoki, Isao

    1997-10-01

    The environmental and economic impact of radioactive waste (radwaste) generated from fusion power reactors using five types of structural materials and a light water reactor (LWR) have been evaluated and compared. At first, the amount and the radioactive level of the radwaste generated in five fusion reactors ware evaluated by an activation calculation code. Next, a possible radwaste disposal scenario applicable to fusion radwaste in Japan is considered and the disposal cost evaluated under certain assumptions. The exposure doses are evaluated for the skyshine of gamma-rays during the disposal operation, groundwater migration scenario during the institutional control period of 300 years and future site use scenario after the institutional period. The radwaste generated from a typical LWR was estimated based on a literature survey and the disposal cost was evaluated using the same assumptions as for the fusion reactors. It is found that the relative cost of disposal is strongly dependent on the cost for interim storage of medium level waste of fusion reactors and the cost of high level waste for the LWR. (author)

  19. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  20. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  1. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hosmer, Hilary

    2000-01-01

    .... Visual attack scenarios help defenders see system ambiguities, imprecision, vulnerabilities and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic...

  2. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  3. Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios at CGNPC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, Min; Zhou, Zhou; Nie, Li Hong; Mao, Guo Ping; Hao, Si Xiong; Shen, Kang

    2008-01-01

    Established in 1994, China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holding Co. (CGNPC) now owns two power stations GNPS and LNPS Phase I, with approximate 4000 MWe of installed capacity. With plant upgrades, advanced fuel management has been introduced into the two plants to improve the plant economical behavior with the high burnup fuel implemented. For the purpose of sustainable development, some preliminary studies on nuclear fuel cycle, especially on the back-end, have been carried out at CGNPC. According to the nuclear power development plan of China, the timing for operation and the capacity of the reprocessing facility are studied based on the amount of the spent fuel forecast in the future. Furthermore, scenarios of the fuel cycles in the future in China with the next generation of nuclear power were considered. Based on the international experiences on the spent fuel management, several options of spent fuel reprocessing strategies are investigated in detail, for example, MOX fuel recycling in light water reactor, especially in the current reactors of CGNPC, spent fuel intermediated storage, etc. All the investigations help us to draw an overall scheme of the nuclear fuel cycle, and to find a suitable road-map to achieve the sustainable development of nuclear power. (authors)

  4. Inflationary scenario from higher curvature warped spacetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banerjee, Narayan; Paul, Tanmoy

    2017-01-01

    We consider a five dimensional warped spacetime, in presence of the higher curvature term like F(R) = R + αR 2 in the bulk, in the context of the two-brane model. Our universe is identified with the TeV scale brane and emerges as a four dimensional effective theory. From the perspective of this effective theory, we examine the possibility of ''inflationary scenario'' by considering the on-brane metric ansatz as an FRW one. Our results reveal that the higher curvature term in the five dimensional bulk spacetime generates a potential term for the radion field. Due to the presence of radion potential, the very early universe undergoes a stage of accelerated expansion and, moreover, the accelerating period of the universe terminates in a finite time. We also find the spectral index of curvature perturbation (n s ) and the tensor to scalar ratio (r) in the present context, which match with the observational results based on the observations of Planck (Astron. Astrophys. 594, A20, 2016). (orig.)

  5. Inflationary scenario from higher curvature warped spacetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banerjee, Narayan [Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata, Department of Physical Sciences, Nadia, West Bengal (India); Paul, Tanmoy [Indian Association for the Cultivation of Science, Department of Theoretical Physics, Kolkata (India)

    2017-10-15

    We consider a five dimensional warped spacetime, in presence of the higher curvature term like F(R) = R + αR{sup 2} in the bulk, in the context of the two-brane model. Our universe is identified with the TeV scale brane and emerges as a four dimensional effective theory. From the perspective of this effective theory, we examine the possibility of ''inflationary scenario'' by considering the on-brane metric ansatz as an FRW one. Our results reveal that the higher curvature term in the five dimensional bulk spacetime generates a potential term for the radion field. Due to the presence of radion potential, the very early universe undergoes a stage of accelerated expansion and, moreover, the accelerating period of the universe terminates in a finite time. We also find the spectral index of curvature perturbation (n{sub s}) and the tensor to scalar ratio (r) in the present context, which match with the observational results based on the observations of Planck (Astron. Astrophys. 594, A20, 2016). (orig.)

  6. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2013-01-01

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  7. Different scenarios to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of thermal power stations in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zabihian, F.; Fung, A.S.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to examine greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction potentials in the Canadian electricity generation sector through fuel switching and the adoption of advanced power generation systems. To achieve this purpose, six different scenarios were introduced. In the first scenario existing power stations' fuel was switched to natural gas. Existing power plants were replaced by natural gas combined cycle (NGCC), integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC), solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC), hybrid SOFC, and SOFC-IGCC hybrid power stations in scenarios number 2 to 6, respectively. (author)

  8. Trichospirura aethiopica n. sp. (Nematoda: Rhabdochonidae from Malacomys longipes (Rodentia: Muridae in Gabon, first record of the genus in the Ethiopian Realm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bain Odile

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Trichospirura aethiopica n. sp. is described from unidentified tubular structures (pancreatic ducts? near the stomach of the murid Malacomys longipes Milne-Edwards, 1877 in Gabon. The extremely long and narrow buccal capsule, posterior position of the vulva, unequal spicules and absence of caudal alae readily identified the specimens as belonging to Trichospirura Smith & Chitwood, 1967, but a combination of several characters distinguished them from the described species in this genus. Males of the new species are characterized by the absence of precloacal papillae, the presence of four pairs of postcloacal papillae and a left spicule length of 165–200 μm. With only five nominal and one unnamed species, the host range of Trichospirura extends into the Neotropical, Indo-Malayan and Ethiopian Realms and comprises three classes of vertebrates, Amphibia, Reptilia and Mammalia, suggesting a larger species diversity than that currently recorded. Detection is difficult as predilection sites are often outside the gut lumen. It was noted that, irrespective of their geographic origin, species from mammals share certain characters (shorter left spicule and absence of precloacal papillae that oppose them to those from amphibians and reptiles. A hypothesis for the origin of Trichospirura in mammals through a remote host-switching event in tupaiids in southern Asia, likely facilitated by the intermediate hosts, and for their subsequent migration to the Ethiopian and finally Neotropical Realm is proposed. Regarding the two species from anurans and saurians in the Antilles, one or two host-switching events are considered equally possible, based on morphological characters.

  9. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  10. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  11. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  12. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  13. Some issues in the ghost condensation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anisimov, A.

    2004-01-01

    In the recently proposed 'ghost condensation' scenario a model of consistent infrared modification of gravity was suggested. We first review the basic ideas of this scenario. We discuss various phenomenological aspects of the ghost condensation, such as stability of the condensate, bounds on the UV cut-off scale of the corresponding effective field theory and other issues. (author)

  14. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  15. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  16. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  17. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  18. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  19. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  20. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  1. An overview of alternative fossil fuel price and carbon regulation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark

    2004-10-01

    The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oil prices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oil prices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2

  2. Scenario forecasting changes in the water balance components of the Olenek and Iindigirka river basins due to possible climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye. M. Gusev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario projections of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics for the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate change scenarios of SRES family which correspond to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The projections have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model for heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.

  3. Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc

    2013-01-01

    By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is

  4. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  5. Nuclear power: An evolving scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ElBaradei, Mohamed

    2004-01-01

    The past two years have found the IAEA often in the spotlight - primarily because of our role as the world's 'nuclear watchdog', as we are sometimes referred to on the evening news. The most visible, and often controversial, peaceful nuclear application is the generation of electricity, the focus of this article largely from a European perspective. At the end of last year there were 440 nuclear power units operating worldwide. Together, they supply about 16% of the world's electricity. That percentage has remained relatively steady for almost 20 years. Expansion and growth prospects for nuclear power are centred in Asia. Of the 31 units under construction worldwide, 18 are located in India, Japan, South Korea and China, including Taiwan. Twenty of the last 29 reactors to be connected to the grid are also in the Far East and South Asia. That is probably more active construction than most Europeans would guess, given how little recent growth has occurred in the West. For Western Europe and North America, nuclear construction has been a frozen playing field - the last plant to be completed being Civaux-2 in France in 1999. That should raise a question: with little to no new construction, how has nuclear power been able to keep up with other energy sources, to maintain its share of electricity generation? Interestingly enough, the answer is tied directly to efforts to improve safety performance. The accident at Chernobyl in 1986 prompted the creation of the World Association of Nuclear Operators (WANO), and revolutionized the IAEA approach to nuclear power plant safety. Some analysts believe the case for new nuclear construction in Europe is gaining new ground, for a number of reasons: efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the risk of climate change; security of energy supply; Comparative Public Health Risk; different set of variables when choosing Each country's and region energy strategy. Looking to the future, certain key challenges are, of direct

  6. Water within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: Constraints and the Impact on Future Global Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Davies, E. G.; Calvin, K. V.; Kim, S. H.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

    2017-12-01

    The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) represent the next generation of future global change scenarios and their inclusion in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios reinforces the importance of a complete understanding of the SSPs. This study uses the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to investigate the effects of limited water supplies on future withdrawals at regional and water basin scales across all SSPs in combination with various climate mitigation scenarios. Water supply is calculated using a global hydrologic model and water data from five ISI-MIP models across the four RCP scenarios. When water constraints are incorporated, our results show that water withdrawals are reduced by as much as 40% across all SSP scenarios without climate policies. As climate policies are imposed and become more stringent, water withdrawals increase in regions already affected by water stress in order to allow for greater biomass production. The results of this research show the importance of including water resource constraints within the SSP scenarios for establishing water withdrawal scenarios under a wide range of scenarios including different climate policies. The results will also provide data products - such as gridded land use and water demand estimates - of potential interest to the impact, adaptation, and vulnerability community following the SSP scenarios.

  7. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  8. Climate change scenarios and Technology Transfer Protocols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kypreos, Socrates; Turton, Hal

    2011-01-01

    We apply a specific version of MERGE-ETL, an integrated assessment model, to study global climate policies supported by Technology Transfer Protocols (TTPs). We model a specific formulation of such a TTP where donor countries finance via carbon tax revenues, the diffusion of carbon-free technologies in developing countries (DCs) and quantify its benefits. Industrialized countries profit from increased technology exports, global diffusion of advanced technology (leading to additional technology learning and cost reductions) and reduced climate damages through the likelihood of greater global participation in a new international agreement. DCs experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and expected secondary benefits of carbon abatement (such as reduced local and regional air pollution). The analysis identifies potential candidate technologies that could be supported under a TTP, and the impact of a TTP on economic development (including the flow of transfer subsidies) and global emissions. Although a TTP may encourage additional participation, such a proposal is only likely to be successful if an increased willingness to pay to avoid climate damages is accepted, first by the present and future generations of the industrialized world and later on, when sufficient economic growth is accumulated, by today's developing countries. - Research Highlights: → Climate policy scenarios are assessed with differentiated commitments in carbon emission control supported by Technology Transfer Protocols. → Donor countries finance, via carbon-tax revenues, the exports of carbon-free technologies in developing countries helping to get a new international agreement. → Developing countries experience increased welfare from access to subsidized technology, and profit from the reduction of damages related to climate change and secondary benefits. → Under Technology Protocols alone and

  9. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  10. Occult hepatitis B infection: an evolutionary scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukashov Vladimir V

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occult or latent hepatitis B virus (HBV infection is defined as infection with detectable HBV DNA and undetectable surface antigen (HBsAg in patients' blood. The cause of an overt HBV infection becoming an occult one is unknown. To gain insight into the mechanism of the development of occult infection, we compared the full-length HBV genome from a blood donor carrying an occult infection (d4 with global genotype D genomes. Results The phylogenetic analysis of polymerase, core and X protein sequences did not distinguish d4 from other genotype D strains. Yet, d4 surface protein formed the evolutionary outgroup relative to all other genotype D strains. Its evolutionary branch was the only one where accumulation of substitutions suggests positive selection (dN/dS = 1.3787. Many of these substitutiions accumulated specifically in regions encoding the core/surface protein interface, as revealed in a 3D-modeled protein complex. We identified a novel RNA splicing event (deleting nucleotides 2986-202 that abolishes surface protein gene expression without affecting polymerase, core and X-protein related functions. Genotype D strains differ in their ability to perform this 2986-202 splicing. Strains prone to 2986-202 splicing constitute a separate clade in a phylogenetic tree of genotype D HBVs. A single substitution (G173T that is associated with clade membership alters the local RNA secondary structure and is proposed to affect splicing efficiency at the 202 acceptor site. Conclusion We propose an evolutionary scenario for occult HBV infection, in which 2986-202 splicing generates intracellular virus particles devoid of surface protein, which subsequently accumulates mutations due to relaxation of coding constraints. Such viruses are deficient of autonomous propagation and cannot leave the host cell until it is lysed.

  11. Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Ruge

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

  12. Energy technology perspectives - scenarios and strategies to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-11-03

    At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

  13. Energy technology perspectives: scenarios and strategies to 2050 [Russian version

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    At their 2005 summit in Gleneagles, G8 leaders confronted questions of energy security and supply and lowering of CO{sub 2} emissions and decided to act with resolve and urgency. They called upon the International Energy Agency to provide advice on scenarios and strategies for a clean and secure energy future. Energy Technology Perspectives is a response to the G8 request. This work demonstrates how energy technologies can make a difference in a series of global scenarios to 2050. It reviews in detail the status and prospects of key energy technologies in electricity generation, buildings, industry and transport. It assesses ways the world can enhance energy security and contain growth in CO{sub 2} emissions by using a portfolio of current and emerging technologies. Major strategic elements of a successful portfolio are energy efficiency, CO{sub 2} capture and storage, renewables and nuclear power. 110 figs., 4 annexes.

  14. Dark matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac gauginos

    CERN Document Server

    Goodsell, Mark D.; Müller, Tobias; Porod, Werner; Staub, Florian

    2015-01-01

    We perform the first analysis of Dark Matter scenarios in a constrained model with Dirac Gauginos. The model under investigation is the Constrained Minimal Dirac Gaugino Supersymmetric Standard model (CMDGSSM) where the Majorana mass terms of gauginos vanish. However, $R$-symmetry is broken in the Higgs sector by an explicit and/or effective $B_\\mu$-term. This causes a mass splitting between Dirac states in the fermion sector and the neutralinos, which provide the dark matter candidate, become pseudo-Dirac states. We discuss two scenarios: the universal case with all scalar masses unified at the GUT scale, and the case with non-universal Higgs soft-terms. We identify different regions in the parameter space which fullfil all constraints from the dark matter abundance, the limits from SUSY and direct dark matter searches and the Higgs mass. Most of these points can be tested with the next generation of direct dark matter detection experiments.

  15. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  16. Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayres, R.U.

    1995-01-01

    Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

  17. The future of nuclear power in China: Long-term scenarios - 5129

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear power will play an important role in reaching China government's 2020 goal of raising the proportion of energy produced by non-fossil fuel to 15 percent and stabilizing carbon emissions by 2030. It will also contribute to lower air pollution emissions. In the medium scenario, nuclear power development is constrained by the available sites verified in preliminary explorations. The installed nuclear power capacity reaches 160 GW by 2050. Nuclear generation grows ten times relative to the current capacity, but a share of nuclear power is still only 10% of total electricity generation in China by 2050. In the high scenario, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050, which provides about 30% of electricity by 2050. In the low scenario of no licensing for new sites, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 95 GW by 2050. For environmental impacts, in 2050 high scenario leads to about 20% reduction in total China's CO 2 emissions and about 25% reduction in a major air pollutant SO 2 relative to medium scenario. Availability of relatively cheap natural gas for electricity mostly replaces coal-based generation while keeping similar profiles for nuclear generation as in the high cost natural gas scenarios. (authors)

  18. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  19. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  20. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  1. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  2. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  3. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  4. Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

    2011-01-01

    Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

  5. Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

  6. Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

  7. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    OpenAIRE

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to ide...

  8. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  9. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchetti, M.; Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P.

    1998-01-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  10. Intrusion scenarios in fusion waste disposal sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchetti, M. [European Commission, JRC, Institute for Advanced Material, Ispra, Vatican City State, Holy See (Italy); Zucchetti, M.; Rocco, P. [Energetics Dept., Polytechnic of Turin (Italy)

    1998-07-01

    Results of analyses on human intrusions into repositories of fusion radioactive waste are presented. The main topics are: duration of the institutional control, occurrence of intrusion, intrusion scenarios, acceptable risk limits and probabilistic data. Application to fusion waste repositories is implemented with a computational model: wells drilling is considered as the possible scenario. Doses and risks to intruder for different SEAFP-2 cases turn out to be very small. No intervention to reduce the hazard is necessary. (authors)

  11. Quantifying scenarios to check statistical procedures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beetle, T.M.

    1976-01-01

    Ways of diverting nuclear material are presented in a form that reflects the effects of the diversions on a select set of statistical accounting procedures. Twelve statistics are examined for changes in mean values under sixty diversion scenarios. Several questions about the statistics are answered using a table of quantification results. Findings include a smallest, proper subset of the set of statistics which has one or more changed mean values under each of the diversion scenarios

  12. The Social Cost Of Electricity. Scenarios and Policy Implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markandya, A.; Bigano, A.; Porchia, R.

    2010-01-01

    This book reports and rationalizes the state-of-the-art concerning the social costs of electricity generation. Social costs are assessed by adding to the private generation costs, the external costs associated with damages to human health, the environment, crops, materials, and those related to the consequences of climate change. The authors consider the evolution of these costs up to 2030 for major electricity generating technologies and, using these estimates, evaluate policy options for external cost internalization, providing quantitative scenarios by country and primary fuel for 2010, 2020 and 2030. While mainly focusing on European countries, the book also examines the situation in key emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Turkey. With an analysis of the policies for external costs internalization, this book will appeal to energy policymakers, research institutions focusing on energy, environmental and energy NGOs and trade associations, as well as energy companies.

  13. Scenarios for the development of the electricity economy in Continental Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutschi, Christoph; Stigler, Heinz; Jagl, Alexander; Nischler, Gernot; Huber, Christoph; Bachhiesl, Udo

    2010-09-15

    ATLANTIS is a multi purpose scenario model for the investigation of effects in the electricity system of continental Europe. The model consists of a physical part for the simulation of power generation and load flow as well as an economic part for the investigation of power markets and the business development of generation and supply companies.

  14. Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2006-07-15

    The waste sector is an important contributor to climate change. CH{sub 4} produced at solid waste disposal sites contributes approximately 3.4 percent to the annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from solid waste disposal are expected to increase with increasing global population and GDP. On the other hand, many cost-efficient emission reduction options are available. The rate of waste degradation in landfills depends on waste composition, climate and conditions in the landfill. Because the duration of CH{sub 4} generation is several decades, estimation of emissions from landfills requires modelling of waste disposal prior to the year whose emissions are of interest. In this study, country- or region-specific first-order decay (FOD) models based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines are used to estimate emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in landfills. In addition, IPCC methodology is used to estimate emissions from waste incineration. Five global scenarios are compiled from 1990 to 2050. These scenarios take into account political decision making and changes in the waste management system. In the Baseline scenario, waste generation is assumed to follow past and current trends using population and GDP as drivers. In the other scenarios, effects of increased incineration, increased recycling and increased landfill gas recovery on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are assessed. Economic maximum emission reduction potentials for these waste management options are estimated at different marginal cost levels for the year 2030 by using the Global TIMES model. Global emissions from landfills are projected to increase from 340 Tg CO{sub 2} eq in 1990 to 1500 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2030 and 2900 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2050 in the Baseline scenario. The emission reduction scenarios give emissions reductions from 5% (9%) to 21% (27%) compared to the Baseline in 2030 (2050). As each scenario considered one mitigation option, the results are largely additive, and

  15. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  16. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  17. Entering 'A NEW REALM' of KIBO Payload Operations - Continuous efforts for microgravity experiment environment and lessons learned from real time experiment operations in KIBO -

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakagami, K; Goto, M; Matsumoto, S; Ohkuma, H

    2011-01-01

    On January 22nd, 2011(JST), KOUNOTORI2 (H-II Transfer Vehicle: HTV2) was successfully launched from Tanegashima Space Center toward the International Space Station (ISS) and two new JAXA payload racks, Kobairo rack and MSPR (Multi-purpose Small Payload Rack) were transferred to ISS/KIBO (Japanese Experiment Module: JEM). In addition to Saibo rack and Ryutai rack which are already in operation in KIBO, in total 4 Japanese experiment payload racks start operations in KIBO. Then KIBO payload operations embark on a new realm, full utilization phase. While the number and variety of microgravity experiments become increasing, simultaneous operation constraints should be considered to achieve multitask payload operations in ISS/KIBO and ever more complicated cooperative operations between crewmember and flight control team/science team are required. Especially for g-jitter improvement in ISS/KIBO, we have greatly advanced cooperative operations with crewmember in the recent increment based on the microgravity data analysis results. In this paper, newly operating Japanese experiment payloads characteristics and some methods to improve g-jitter environment are introduced from the front line of KIBO payload operations.

  18. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  19. Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim

    2007-01-01

    Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

  20. Scenario guidance handbook for emergency-preparedness exercises at nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laughlin, G.J.; Martin, G.F.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-01-01

    As part of the Emergency Preparedness Implementation Appraisal Program conducted by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) with the technical assistance of the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), emergency preparedness exercises are observed on an annual basis at all licensed reactor facilities. One of the significant findings to arise from these observations was that a large number of the commonly observed problems originated in the design of the scenarios used as a basis for each exercise. In an effort to help eliminate some of these problems a scenario guidance handbook has been generated by PNL for the NRC to assist nuclear power plant licensees in developing scenarios for emergency preparedness exercises

  1. Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each

  2. Energy scenario in India and strategy for sustainable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, K.; Bhagat, S.K.; Thakur, T.

    1998-01-01

    Although India has a fairly large interconnected power system among the developing countries, it accounts for tremendously high losses occurring in the system, and hence resulting in an inefficient operation. With the ever increasing cost of inflation and several other financial constraints, it is of paramount importance to maximise/optimise the continuity and quality of electric power supply at minimum investment. Also, this calls upon planning for optimum generating capacity and maintaining adequate spinning reserves. This article discusses the Indian scenario and deals with some strategic issues keeping in mind the problems concerning the future growth of the power industry. (author)

  3. Experience of soil rehabilitation in the scenario of Chernobyl

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millan Gomez, R.; Ronero, L.; Jouve, A.

    1996-01-01

    The Chernobyl post-accident scenario became nowadays a natural radioecology laboratory, where a wide range of decontamination methods can be applied, validated or developed. This paper presents the application of a soil rehabilitation technique, the removal of vegetation and associated soil, in the experimental fields of Bourakovka and Chistogalovka surrounding the Chernobyl NPP. The results obtained have shown soil decontamination factors higher than 90% for caesium and strontium. This technique involves the removal of deposited hot particles released at the accident, and the experience allowed a detailed study of one of them corresponding to a nuclear fuel fragment, probably generated at the beginning of the breakdown. 16 refs. (Author)

  4. Climate protection scenario 2050. Summary; Klimaschutzszenario 2050. Zusammenfassung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Repenning, Julia; Emele, Lukas [Oeko-Institut e.V. - Institut fuer Angewandte Oekologie, Berlin (Germany); Braungardt, Sibylle; Eichhammer, Wolfgang [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2014-04-15

    The report on the meeting of the experts on modeling of the climate protection scenario 2050 summarizes the substantial results: 80-90% reduction the greenhouse gas emissions means a reduction of fossil energy carriers by up to 98%. The electricity generation industry has to provide most of the reduction since esp. agriculture cannot reduce the CO2 emissions. The amount of renewable energy for electricity production has to increase to about 95%. The economic analysis shows that a strategy of energy efficiency and electricity production from renewable energy sources plus product innovation is a no-regret strategy that will be advantageous for Germany in a long-term.

  5. The realm of the vacuum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchholz, D.; Wanzenberg, R.

    1992-01-01

    The spacelike asymptotic structure of physical states in local quantum theory is analysed. It is shown that this structure can be described in terms of a vacuum state if the theory satisfies a condition of timelike asymptotic abelianess. Theories which violate this condition can have an involved asymptotic vacuum structure as is illustrated by a simple example. (orig.)

  6. Life in the oceanic realms

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Raghukumar, C.

    Keywords Phytoplankton,zooplankton,pri- mary and secondary producers, zooxanthellae. Chandralata Raghukumar is an emeritus scientist at the National Institute of Oceanography, Goa. After obtaining a PhD in plant pathology, she worked for 5 years on fungal... marine animals and plants were collected during such voyages by the researchers onboardthe vesselsandsystematicallydescribed. The HMS Beagle with Charles Darwin on board sailed around different oceans for nearly 4 years and this was the beginning...

  7. Life in the Oceanic Realms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    May this song by the Beatles be an inspiration to a career in biological ..... can remain residual inside their body and cause toxicity to human beings in the food ..... and nonliving resources, oceanography, coastal environment and related social ... marine habitats; 10) understanding biodiversity for management, conservation ...

  8. Scenarios for economy and environment in Central and Eastern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bollen, J.; Hettelingh, J.-P.; Maas, R.

    1993-01-01

    This draft report was produced within the framework of the Environmental Action Plant for Central and Eastern Europe on the request of the World Bank. A number of scenarios for this environment; Western Europe, Central Europe (the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary and Poland) and Eastern Europe (the former USSR) were developed. The environmental results related to scenarios applying future Western European techniques in future CEE (Environmental Action Plan for Central and Eastern Europe) investments were predicted - based on estimates of differences of energy efficiency and emission factors of techniques currently applied in CEE and Western Europe. The focus of the analysis is to reflect the effects on environmental quality in CEE assuming a gradual introduction of Western control technology. The results (in the form of maps, graphs and tables) of the analysis are given in detail, preceded by sections on socio-economic background and descriptions of scenarios and models. It is concluded that the main problem for Central and Eastern Europe will be to generate funds to restart economic growth after a difficult transition process. A more efficient use of energy should be encouraged and installations and industrial complexes should be retrofitted to help achieve this aim. Episodic peak concentrations of energy consumption should be reduced. (AB)

  9. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo [Department of Physics, Swansea University,Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom); Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth,Portsmouth, PO1 3FX (United Kingdom)

    2015-03-23

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  10. A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tasinato, Gianmassimo, E-mail: gianmassimo.tasinato@port.ac.uk [Department of Physics, Swansea University, Swansea, SA2 8PP U.K. (United Kingdom)

    2015-03-01

    Cosmological magnetic fields pervade the entire universe, from small to large scales. Since they apparently extend into the intergalactic medium, it is tantalizing to believe that they have a primordial origin, possibly being produced during inflation. However, finding consistent scenarios for inflationary magnetogenesis is a challenging theoretical problem. The requirements to avoid an excessive production of electromagnetic energy, and to avoid entering a strong coupling regime characterized by large values for the electromagnetic coupling constant, typically allow one to generate only a tiny amplitude of magnetic field during inflation. We propose a scenario for building gauge-invariant models of inflationary magnetogenesis potentially free from these issues. The idea is to derivatively couple a dynamical scalar, not necessarily the inflaton, to fermionic and electromagnetic fields during the inflationary era. Such couplings give additional freedom to control the time-dependence of the electromagnetic coupling constant during inflation. This fact allows us to find conditions to avoid the strong coupling problems that affect many of the existing models of magnetogenesis. We do not need to rely on a particular inflationary set-up for developing our scenario, that might be applied to different realizations of inflation. On the other hand, specific requirements have to be imposed on the dynamics of the scalar derivatively coupled to fermions and electromagnetism, that we are able to satisfy in an explicit realization of our proposal.

  11. Computer enhanced release scenario analysis for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Mullen, M.F.

    1979-01-01

    An interactive (user-oriented) computer tool is being developed at PNL to assist in the analysis of release scenarios for long-term safety assessment of a continental geologic nuclear waste repository. Emphasis is on characterizing the various ways the geologic and hydrologic system surrounding a repository might vary over the 10 6 to 10 7 years subsequent to final closure of the cavern. The potential disruptive phenomena are categorized as natural geologic and man-caused and tend to be synergistic in nature. The computer tool is designed to permit simulation of the system response as a function of the ongoing disruptive phenomena and time. It is designed to be operated in a determinatic manner, i.e., user selection of the desired scenarios and associated rate, magnitude, and lag time data; or in a stochastic mode. The stochastic mode involves establishing distributions for individual phenomena occurrence probabilities, rates, magnitudes, and phase relationships. A Monte-Carlo technique is then employed to generate a multitude of disruptive event scenarios, scan for breaches of the repository isolation, and develop input to the release consequence analysis task. To date, only a simplified one-dimensional version of the code has been completed. Significant modification and development is required to expand its dimensionality and apply the tool to any specific site

  12. Scenarios for low carbon and low water electric power plant ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In the water-energy nexus, water use for the electric power sector is critical. Currently, the operational phase of electric power production dominates the electric sector's life cycle withdrawal and consumption of fresh water resources. Water use associated with the fuel cycle and power plant equipment manufacturing phase is substantially lower on a life cycle basis. An outstanding question is: how do regional shifts to lower carbon electric power mixes affect the relative contribution of the upstream life cycle water use? To test this, we examine a range of scenarios comparing a baseline with scenarios of carbon reduction and water use constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy systems model with ORD's 2014 U.S. 9-region database (EPAUS9r). The results suggest that moving toward a low carbon and low water electric power mix may increase the non-operational water use. In particular, power plant manufacturing water use for concentrating solar power, and fuel cycle water use for biomass feedstock, could see sharp increases under scenarios of high deployment of these low carbon options. Our analysis addresses the following questions. First, how does moving to a lower carbon electricity generation mix affect the overall regional electric power water use from a life cycle perspective? Second, how does constraining the operational water use for power plants affect the mix, if at all? Third, how does the life cycle water use differ among regions under

  13. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  14. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  15. Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40 years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia. - Highlights: • In the Reference scenario exports of natural gas grow from Russia’s current 7 Tcf to 11–12 Tcf in 2030 and 13–14 Tcf in 2050. • In alternative scenarios a share of Russian exports to Asian markets is rising to about 30% by 2030 and 50 % in 2050. • Cheap shale gas in China can sufficiently alter Russian natural gas export. • Reduction in nuclear generation in Europe can lead to increased exports of natural gas from

  16. Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dang, Van Thanh

    2016-01-01

    Reduction of CO_2 emissions issue is clearly a world challenge today and COP21 highlighted the international requirements for countries to address related issues in the short and long term. The fundamental objective of the thesis is to contribute to the identification of possible climate policy solutions related to growing electricity production in a developing country, namely Vietnam, taking into account the need to reduce carbon energy sources. For this purpose several scenarios for electricity sector development are constructed in order to measure effects of choices related to the electricity production on CO_2 emissions. The thesis presents an overview of the energy situation in Vietnam and highlights the rapid increase in electricity consumption due to population pressure and new needs. It also considers major issues of coal and gas imports, new energy sources, in light of economic constraints but also environmental challenges. The theoretical and analytical chapter reviews the analyses of electricity master plans construction, major available economic tools for energy demand forecast models. This forms the framework to understanding the complexity of the 'electric bet' which Vietnam faces. After a presentation of potential quantitative simulation instruments, ELECsim was chosen for modeling the electricity sector in Vietnam. This leads to a comprehensive scenario approach; Scenarios are based on several assumptions about the evolution of economic growth and demographics, energy prices, the power generation technology development, the declared carbon value, discount rates and change rate. As a first step in energy and climate policy Vietnam can control the demand growth by strong action on energy efficiency, while reducing parallel to both the electricity production costs and CO_2 emissions. Several scenarios are then proposed, highlighting both the need to search for higher energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon energies. Research envisages a rapid

  17. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  18. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  19. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  20. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  1. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    ;reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in the CAS scenarios relies primarily on 2000 data, despite the existence of sufficiently complete statistics through to 2005. The DGEMP on the other hand used a study by the BIPE (Office for Economic Information and Forecasting) provided by the SESP, the Ministry for Ecology, Energy, Sustainable Development and Spatial Planning's economic statistics and forecasting department. On the basis of the study's macro-economic projections of the French economy to 2020, the DGEMP was able to re-evaluate the prospects for activity in the industrial and tertiary sectors. In several respects (e.g. supply security, CO{sub 2} emissions, energy efficiency), the baseline scenario proposed here is clearly not a scenario conducive to satisfying French energy policy objectives. This is not a surprising conclusion in that it implies the need to implement new policies and measures in addition to those already in place or approved. In particular, this scenario would lead to importing 66 billion cubic meters of gas (59 Mtoe) in 2020 and 78 billion cubic meters (70 Mtoe) in 2030, compared with the present 44 billion cubic meters. In addition to the resulting CO{sub 2} emissions, the near doubling of gas imports would pose a twofold problem as to the geographic origin of the gas imported (under appropriate supply contracts) and the infrastructure (LNG terminals, gas pipelines) required to transport it. Finally, the baseline scenario is of course a long way from achieving the Community targets, whether for CO{sub 2} emissions, projected to rise continually until 2020 and then even faster until 2030 (due to transport and electric power generation), or for the share of renewable energy in the energy mix. In that regard, the share of renewable energy in 'enlarged' final energy consumption, as it is described in the 'energy and climate change package', would grow to 13.4% in 2020 (versus 23% in the

  2. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  3. KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

    2014-10-15

    One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

  4. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  5. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  6. Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.

    1999-01-01

    The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

  7. The Impact of Gamification - Recommending Education Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Erenli

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many students play (computer games in their leisure time, thus acquiring skills which can easily be utilized when it comes to teaching more sophisticated knowledge. Nevertheless many educators today are wasting this opportunity. Some have evaluated gaming scenarios and methods for teaching students and have created the term “gamification”. This paper describes the history of this new term and explains the possible impact on teaching. It will take well-researched facts into consideration to discuss the potential of games. Moreover, scenarios will be illustrated and evaluated for educators to adopt and use on their own.

  8. The other radios: Alternative scenario in Peru

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rivadeneyra-Olcese

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Peruvian radio shows a huge diversity in direct proportion to its multiculturality, the same which shows a process full of different influences of social actor which have produced a complex and extremely rich scenario, that is also filled with opportunities and challenges. Beyond the great capital commercial radio are the other radios, small companies, provincial, from church or the mayor or small business owners sons of folkloric melomania, different actors with a passion to establish a new media. The multiple motivations produce a scenario with many types of radio that we wishes to start knowing.

  9. Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riccardo Melen

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

  10. Continental weathering as a driver of Late Cretaceous cooling: new insights from clay mineralogy of Campanian sediments from the southern Tethyan margin to the Boreal realm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenot, Elise; Deconinck, Jean-François; Pucéat, Emmanuelle; Pellenard, Pierre; Guiraud, Michel; Jaubert, Maxime; Jarvis, Ian; Thibault, Nicolas; Cocquerez, Théophile; Bruneau, Ludovic; Razmjooei, Mohammad J.; Boussaha, Myriam; Richard, James; Sizun, Jean-Pierre; Stemmerik, Lars

    2018-03-01

    New clay mineralogical analyses have been performed on Campanian sediments from the Tethyan and Boreal realms along a palaeolatitudinal transect from 45° to 20°N (Danish Basin, North Sea, Paris Basin, Mons Basin, Aquitaine Basin, Umbria-Marche Basin and Tunisian Atlas). Significant terrigenous inputs are evidenced by increasing proportions of detrital clay minerals such as illite, kaolinite and chlorite at various levels in the mid- to upper Campanian, while smectitic minerals predominate and represented the background of the Late Cretaceous clay sedimentation. Our new results highlight a distinct latitudinal distribution of clay minerals, with the occurrence of kaolinite in southern sections and an almost total absence of this mineral in northern areas. This latitudinal trend points to an at least partial climatic control on clay mineral sedimentation, with a humid zone developed between 20° and 35°N. The association and co-evolution of illite, chlorite and kaolinite in most sections suggest a reworking of these minerals from basement rocks weathered by hydrolysis, which we link to the formation of relief around the Tethys due to compression associated with incipient Tethyan closure. Diachronism in the occurrence of detrital minerals between sections, with detrital input starting earlier during the Santonian in the south than in the north, highlights the northward progression of the deformation related to the anticlockwise rotation of Africa. Increasing continental weathering and erosion, evidenced by our clay mineralogical data through the Campanian, may have resulted in enhanced CO2 consumption by silicate weathering, thereby contributing to Late Cretaceous climatic cooling.

  11. Long-term scenario alternatives and their implications: LEAP model application of Panama's electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McPherson, Madeleine; Karney, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama's electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform ‘Long-range Energy Alternative Planning’ (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail. - Highlights: • This paper models Panama's electricity sector using the LEAP model platform. • Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. • Impact analysis includes: system cost, global warming potential, resource diversity index. • Panama can achieve a sustainable grid with existing technologies and costs. • There is an tradeoff between the resource diversity and global warming potential

  12. Realistic training scenario simulations and simulation techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunlop, William H.; Koncher, Tawny R.; Luke, Stanley John; Sweeney, Jerry Joseph; White, Gregory K.

    2017-12-05

    In one embodiment, a system includes a signal generator operatively coupleable to one or more detectors; and a controller, the controller being both operably coupled to the signal generator and configured to cause the signal generator to: generate one or more signals each signal being representative of at least one emergency event; and communicate one or more of the generated signal(s) to a detector to which the signal generator is operably coupled. In another embodiment, a method includes: receiving data corresponding to one or more emergency events; generating at least one signal based on the data; and communicating the generated signal(s) to a detector.

  13. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  14. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  15. Scenario aggregation and analysis via Mean-Shift Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandelli, D.; Yilmaz, A.; Metzroth, K.; Aldemir, T.; Denning, R.

    2010-01-01

    A new generation of dynamic methodologies is being developed for nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) which explicitly account for the time element in modeling the probabilistic system evolution and use numerical simulation tools to account for possible dependencies between failure events. The dynamic event tree (DET) approach is one of these methodologies. One challenge with dynamic PRA methodologies is the large amount of data they produce which may be difficult to analyze without appropriate software tools. The concept of 'data mining' is well known in the computer science community and several methodologies have been developed in order to extract useful information from a dataset with a large number of records. Using the dataset generated by the DET analysis of the reactor vessel auxiliary cooling system (RVACS) of an ABR-1000 for an aircraft crash recovery scenario and the Mean-Shift Methodology for data mining, it is shown how clusters of transients with common characteristics can be identified and classified. (authors)

  16. Scenarios for energy forecasting: papers of the symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    Energy planning is important for every developed country and therefore also for South Africa. However, during 1984 it was felt by interested parties that the work in this field should be coordinated through mutual discussion. With this in mind a 'Task Team for Energy Forecasting' was formed with the task to generate acceptable forecasts of the energy set-up in South Africa. Knowledge of the relationship between energy and variables such as the economy and the population is necessary to the Task Team. However, the Task Team also needs some insight into the future paths of such variables if it has to generate energy forecasts. It is the purpose of this symposium to improve this insight through having experts in all relevant fields to set out and develop their possible future scenarios independently of energy forecasting

  17. Hydrological Responses to Land-Use Change Scenarios under Constant and Changed Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Yu, Wenjun; Ge, Yingchun

    2016-02-01

    This study quantified the hydrological responses to land-use change scenarios in the upper and middle Heihe River basin (HRB), northwest China, under constant and changed climatic conditions by combining a land-use/cover change model (dynamic conversion of land use and its effects, Dyna-CLUE) and a hydrological model (soil and water assessment tool, SWAT). Five land-use change scenarios, i.e., historical trend (HT), ecological protection (EP), strict ecological protection (SEP), economic development (ED), and rapid economic development (RED) scenarios, were established. Under constant climatic condition, hydrological variations are only induced by land-use changes in different scenarios. The changes in mean streamflow at the outlets of the upper and the middle HRB are not pronounced, although the different scenarios produce different outcomes. However, more pronounced changes are observed on a subbasin level. The frequency of extreme flood is projected to decrease under the SEP scenario, while under the other scenarios, no changes can be found. Two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) of three general circulation models (HadCM3, CGCM3, and CCSM3) were employed to generate future possible climatic conditions. Under changed climatic condition, hydrological variations are induced by the combination of land-use and climatic changes. The results indicate that the impacts of land-use changes become secondary when the changed climatic conditions have been considered. The frequencies of extreme flood and drought are projected to decrease and increase, respectively, under all climate scenarios. Although some agreements can be reached, pronounced difference of hydrological responses can be observed for different climate scenarios of different GCMs.

  18. Scenarios for solar thermal energy applications in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martins, F.R.; Abreu, S.L.; Pereira, E.B.

    2012-01-01

    The Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment (SWERA) database is used to prepare and discuss scenarios for solar thermal applications in Brazil. The paper discusses low temperature applications (small and large scale water heating) and solar power plants for electricity production (concentrated solar power plants and solar chimney plants) in Brazil. The results demonstrate the feasibility of large-scale application of solar energy for water heating and electricity generation in Brazil. Payback periods for water heating systems are typically below 4 years if they were used to replace residential electric showerheads in low-income families. Large-scale water heating systems also present high feasibility and many commercial companies are adopting this technology to reduce operational costs. The best sites to set up CSP plants are in the Brazilian semi-arid region where the annual energy achieves 2.2 MW h/m 2 and averages of daily solar irradiation are larger than 5.0 kW h/m 2 /day. The western area of Brazilian Northeastern region meets all technical requirements to exploit solar thermal energy for electricity generation based on solar chimney technology. Highlights: ► Scenarios for solar thermal applications are presented. ► Payback is typically below 4 years for small scale water heating systems. ► Large-scale water heating systems also present high feasibility. ► The Brazilian semi-arid region is the best sites for CSP and chimney tower plants.

  19. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  20. Variability of tsunami inundation footprints considering stochastic scenarios based on a single rupture model: Application to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    KAUST Repository

    Goda, Katsuichiro; Yasuda, Tomohiro; Mori, Nobuhito; Mai, Paul Martin

    2015-01-01

    distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry

  1. A new methodology for building local climate change scenarios : A case study of monthly temperature projections for Mexico City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Estrada, Francisco; Guerrero, VíCtor M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology for generating climate change scenarios at the local scale based on multivariate time series models and restricted forecasting techniques. This methodology offers considerable advantages over the current statistical downscaling techniques such as: (i) it

  2. Impacts of high energy prices on long-term energy-economic scenarios for Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krey, V.; Markewitz, P. [Research Center Juelich, Inst. of Energy Res., Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation, Juelich (Germany); Horn, M. [DIW Berlin, Berlin (Germany); Matthes, C.; Graichen, V.; Harthan, R.O.; Repenning, J. [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany)

    2007-05-15

    Prices of oil and other fossil fuels on global markets have reached a high level in recent years. These levels were not able to be reproduced on the basis of scenarios and prognoses that were published in the past. New scenarios, based on higher energy price trajectories, have appeared only recently. The future role of various energy carriers and technologies in energy-economic scenarios will greatly depend on the level of energy prices. Therefore, an analysis of the impact of high energy prices on long-term scenarios for Germany was undertaken. Based on a reference scenario with moderate prices, a series of consistent high price scenarios for primary and secondary energy carriers were developed. Two scenarios with (i) continuously rising price trajectories and (ii) a price shock with a price peak during the period 2010-15 and a subsequent decline to the reference level are analysed. Two types of models have been applied in the analysis. The IKARUS energy systems optimisation model covers the whole of the German energy system from primary energy supply down to the end-use sectors. Key results in both high price scenarios include a replacement of natural gas by hard coal and renewable energy sources in electricity and heat generation. Backstop technologies like coal liquefaction begin to play a role under such conditions. Up to 10% of final energy consumption is saved in the end-use sectors, with the residential and transport sector being the greatest contributors. Even without additional restrictions, CO{sub 2} emissions significantly drop in comparison to the reference scenario. The ELIAS electricity investment analysis model focuses on the power sector. In the reference scenario with current allocation rules in the emissions trading scheme, the CO{sub 2} emissions decrease relatively steadily. The development is characterised by the phaseout of nuclear energy which is counterweighted by the increase of renewable. In the high price scenario, the CO{sub 2

  3. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

  4. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  5. SO2 emission scenarios of eastern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, L.; Hao, J.; Lu, M.

    1995-01-01

    Under the National Key Project in Eighth Five-year Plan, a study was carried out on forecasting SO 2 emission from coal combustion in China, with a special emphasis on the eastern area. 3 scenarios, i.e. 'Optimistic', 'Pessimistic' and 'Business as Usual' scenarios were developed trying to cover changing scale of coal consumption and SO 2 emission from 1990 to 2020. A 'Top-down' approach was employed, and coal consumption elasticity was defined to project future economic growth and coal consumption. SO 2 emission scenarios were outlined, based on coal consumption, estimated sulfur content level and prospective SO 2 control situation. Emission level for each 1 degree longitude x 1 degree latitude grid cell within eastern China was also estimated to show geographical distribution of SO 2 sources. The results show that SO 2 emission in China will increase rapidly, if the current situation for energy saving and SO 2 control is maintained without improvement; measures enhanced reasonably with economic growth could stop further increase of emission by 2010. Realization of more encouraging objective to keep emission at even below 1990 level needs, however, more stringent options. The share of eastern China in the country's total emission would increase until 2000, while the general changing tendency would principally follow the scenarios of the whole country. 4 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  6. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  7. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  8. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  9. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...

  10. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  11. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  12. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant

  13. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  14. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  15. Integration of software for scenario exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-03-01

    The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

  16. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  17. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would dec