Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

2008-01-01

As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

Science.gov (United States)

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Discussion of ISV Scenario Scope with Operating Process Element

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Yun Goo; Oh, Eungse [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. ltd. Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

NUREG-0711 identifies the sampling dimension of operational conditions which includes normal operation,I and C and HSI failures, transient, and accidents. Because of practical limitation of sampling, ISV scenarios do not include every expected operational condition. To develop a scenario for the ISV, it requires much time and efforts. It takes about 1 month with 3 operating crew team for 7 scenarios for the ISV. Therefore, operational conditions are screened out for integration to scenario. TSV can be used for the evaluation of monitoring, detection, and response implementation about the inventory of information and control. However, validity of operational walkthrough for other operating process element needs to be discussed. For the situation awareness, the general acceptance check list can be derived from the result of representative scenario set of ISV. The check list may contain the number of information, type of information, level of procedure and training program. For the response planning, procedure can be used for evaluation.

Scenario Development Workshop Synopsis. Integration Group for the Safety Case - June 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Paul; Voinis, Sylvie; Griffault, Lise; De Meredieu, Jean; Kwong, Gloria; ); Van Luik, Abraham; Bailey, Lucy; Capouet, Manuel; Depaus, Christophe; Makino, Hitoshi; Leigh, Christi; Kirkes, Ross; Leino, Jaakko; Niemeyer, Matthias; Wolf, Jens; Watson, Sarah; Franke, Bettina; Ilett, Doug; Pastina, Barbara; Weetjens, Eef

2016-03-01

Scenario development and selection describes the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information relevant to the potential paths of evolution of a radioactive waste disposal facility (repository) that is necessary to assess its long-term performance and safety. In 1999, the NEA held its first workshop on scenario development in Madrid, Spain, with the objective to review the methods for developing scenarios in safety assessments and their application. Since then, the process of scenario development and analysis for the disposal of radioactive waste has changed and, in 2015, the NEA Integration Group for the Safety Case (IGSC) held a second workshop on this topic at its offices in Paris to further evaluate the experience acquired in developing scenarios since 1999. To prepare for this workshop, the IGSC also launched a survey in 2014 to gather the latest scenario development and uncertainty management strategies used in IGSC member countries. The purposes of the workshop were to (i) provide a forum to review and discuss methods for scenario development and their contribution to the development of recent safety cases (since the 1999 workshop); (ii) examine the latest methods and compare their scope, consistency and function within the overall safety assessment process, based on practical experience of applications; and (iii) provide a basis for producing the present report summarising the current status of scenario methodologies, identifying where sufficient methods exist and any outstanding problem areas. This report provides an overview of the state of the art in scenario development related to the long-term safety of geological repositories for radioactive waste. In particular, it discusses how potential scenarios are developed in safety assessments of radioactive waste that contains long-lived radionuclides. Safety assessment is the process of quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the safety of a repository, often in support of a

Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

2002-01-01

Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pitcher, Hugh M

2009-01-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-11-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objective is to develop a general consensus of scenarios and conceptual models. Within the project a biosphere scenarios working group was initiated to consider specific questions of the biosphere. This report describes the results of the group's deliberations up to the end of July 1989. A methodology is presented for the development of biosphere scenarios which may be considered alongside scenarios for radionuclide behaviour in the near field and geosphere. Two major biosphere elements affecting processes in the surface environment have been recognised, climate and development. Alternative states for climate and level of development are suggested and each combination can be considered with one or more of a range of biosphere receptors, such as a river or a lake. The features, events and processes relevant to each receptor are presented. Consideration is then given to biosphere assumptions for both gradual and direct releases from the geosphere, as well as biosphere effects on the repository near field or geosphere. The amount of screening which can be done at this stage to limit the number of biosphere scenarios is small. However, considerable potential exists once more details are available for geosphere release scenarios. It may be appropriate to further develop biosphere scenarios, specific to each geosphere release scenario. It may also be appropriate to consider scenarios specifically in relation to the individual radionuclides which dominate geosphere releases. Both these possibilities could result in considerably reduced requirements for calculations

Scenario development methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

1994-11-01

In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fridolin Simon. Brand

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of both the scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation, i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensity during the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholders concerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problem ownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region, and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning, community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region's future development. We suggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, which enable a discussion of critical and surprising issues.

Trends in scenario development methodologies and integration in NUMO's approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebashi, Takeshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Kawamura, Hideki; Gaus, Irina; Vomvoris, Stratis; Martin, Andrew J.; Smith, Paul

2011-01-01

The development of scenarios for quantitative or qualitative analysis is a key element of the assessment of the safety of geological disposal systems. As an outcome of an international workshop attended by European and the Japanese implementers, a number of features common to current methodologies could be identified, as well as trends in their evolution over time. In the late nineties, scenario development was often described as a bottom-up process, whereby scenarios were said to be developed in essence from FEP databases. Nowadays, it is recognised that, in practice, the approaches actually adopted are better described as top-down or 'hybrid', taking as their starting point an integrated (top-down) understanding of the system under consideration including uncertainties in initial state, sometimes assisted by the development of 'storyboards'. A bottom-up element remains (hence the term 'hybrid') to the extent that FEP databases or FEP catalogues (including interactions) are still used, but the focus is generally on completeness checking, which occurs parallel to the main assessment process. Recent advances focus on the consistent treatment of uncertainties throughout the safety assessment and on the integration of operational safety and long term safety. (author)

Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

Science.gov (United States)

Payne, J. F.

2016-12-01

Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Caille

2007-11-01

Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

1994-01-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

Science.gov (United States)

Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

2007-12-01

There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1997-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

Introduction of developing a list of MSO generic scenarios for PHWR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jae Wan; Park, Jun Hyun; Bae, Hui Soo [STANDARD Testing and Engineering Ing. Ltd, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

Multiple Spurious Operation(MSO) scenarios should contain scenarios threatening Post-fire safe shutdown function by MSO of Safe Shutdown Equipments(SSEs) as well as Non-SSEs. The list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) was developed by industrial survey. Although not all scenarios of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) are considered applicable to every reactor type, this list provides an input about MSO identification and treatment process. If NEI 00-01 is applied to other reactor type, analyst should review applicability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) and consider potential MSO scenarios undescribed in the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). Especially, in PHWR case, there is no list of MSO generic scenarios in Canada or internationally. There are substantial physical variations between NPPs. So some generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) would need validation. Nevertheless, industrial stakeholder have not did any MSO work until now. In this paper, results of first stage research that develop the list of MSO generic scenarios for pressurized heavy water reactor(PHWR) is introduced. According to the review results, specific review of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) is required such as how it applies to PHWR. And criteria was established for review of availability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). However there are still many tasks such as potential scenario review, risk model review and expert panel review.

Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anniken Enger

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

2018-04-29

This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

CONSTRUCTIVE MODEL OF ADAPTATION OF DATA STRUCTURES IN RAM. PART II. CONSTRUCTORS OF SCENARIOS AND ADAPTATION PROCESSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. I. Shynkarenko

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Purpose.The second part of the paper completes presentation of constructive and the productive structures (CPS, modeling adaptation of data structures in memory (RAM. The purpose of the second part in the research is to develop a model of process of adaptation data in a RAM functioning in different hardware and software environments and scenarios of data processing. Methodology. The methodology of mathematical and algorithmic constructionism was applied. In this part of the paper, changes were developed the constructors of scenarios and adaptation processes based on a generalized CPS through its transformational conversions. Constructors are interpreted, specialized CPS. Were highlighted the terminal alphabets of the constructor scenarios in the form of data processing algorithms and the constructor of adaptation – in the form of algorithmic components of the adaptation process. The methodology involves the development of substitution rules that determine the output process of the relevant structures. Findings. In the second part of the paper, system is represented by CPS modeling adaptation data placement in the RAM, namely, constructors of scenarios and of adaptation processes. The result of the implementation of constructor of scenarios is a set of data processing operations in the form of text in the language of programming C#, constructor of the adaptation processes – a process of adaptation, and the result the process of adaptation – the adapted binary code of processing data structures. Originality. For the first time proposed the constructive model of data processing – the scenario that takes into account the order and number of calls to the various elements of data structures and adaptation of data structures to the different hardware and software environments. At the same the placement of data in RAM and processing algorithms are adapted. Constructionism application in modeling allows to link data models and algorithms for

Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2003-01-01

Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Theodor-Heuss-Str. 4, D-38122 Braunschweig (Germany); Lommerzheim, Andre [DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, Eschenstr. 55, D-31224 Peine (Germany); Mrugalla, Sabine [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover (Germany)

2013-07-01

Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tuzhyk Kateryna

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALGORITHM FOR CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

I. S. Borisova

2018-01-01

effect from the implementation of scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region and the specific economic effect per unit of all costs for the scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region are analyzed. Methods: the scientific results are based on the main provisions of the neoclassical institutional theory, the principles of sustainable development and the basic postulates of the regional economy. The article uses comparative, tabular, graphical and economic-statistical methods.Results: the stages of the script justification process are developed and a formalized algorithm for selecting the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy is formed in conditions of the predominance of a particular type of economic activity allowing the executive bodies of the regional government to use the resource potential of the regional economy to ensure the implementation of strategic changes depending on the activity of participants in the region's economy. It was found that the rationale and choice of the optimal scenario is an important stage in the development of the sustainable development program of the regional economy, since it helps to quantify the most probable trajectories of changes in the activities of all participants in the region's economy.Conclusions and Relevance: the practical significance of the developed algorithm lies in the possibility of using it to improve the stability of the development of the economy of specific regions. In particular, for the Lipetsk region, the "base" scenario is the most optimal given the resources available in the regional economy and the general state of the economy.

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Methodological progress in the development of scenarios for ENRESA-2000 Performance assessment exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortes Martin, A.

2000-01-01

ENRESA is carrying out a new safety assessment exercise for a deep geological spent fuel disposal facility located in granite, known as ENRESA-2000. One of the main objectives of this safety analysis is the integration and implementation of all R and D studies performed to date by ENRESA, as well as the identification of those aspects of the assessment which require further investigation. One of the main activities of this exercise is the selection and development of the scenarios to be quantitatively analysed during the assessment, where a scenario is defined as a sufficient number of FEPs (ie relevant features, events and processes) as well as their influence relationships, which explain the behaviour of the disposal system. As a result of these three methods, a definitive list of FEPs will be obtained for the ENRESA-2000 exercise. Once grouped into scenarios, these FEPs will be used to model and calculate consequences. This process of generation and development of scenarios for the ENRESA-2000 performance assessment exercise is presented in this paper. (Author)

Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ayres, R.U.

1995-01-01

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

2012-01-01

Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

Development of exploratory approach for scenario analysis in the performance assessment of geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makino, Hitoshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu; Grindrod, Peter

1998-01-01

It becomes difficult to apply the ordinary method for scenario analysis as number of the processes and complexity in their interrelations are increased. For this problem, an exploratory approach, that can perform scenario analysis on wider range of problems, was developed. The approach includes ensemble runs of a mass transport model, that was developed as a generic and flexible model and can cover effects of various processes on the mass transport, and analysis of sensitivity structure among the input and output space of the ensemble runs. The technique of clustering and principal component analysis were applied in the approach. As the result of its test application, applicability of the approach was confirmed to identify important processes from number of the processes in the systematic and objective manner. (author)

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

2016-10-15

Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, In Hyo; Son, Han Seong; Kim, Si Won; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system

A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

2009-01-01

Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

2007-08-20

The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

Engaging Stakeholders through Participatory Mapping and Spatial Analysis in a Scenarios Process for Alaska's North Slope

Science.gov (United States)

Fradkin, B.; Vargas, J. C.; Lee, O. A.; Emperador, S.

2016-12-01

A scenarios process was conducted for Alaska's North Slope to consider the wide range of drivers of change and uncertainties that could contribute to shifts in research and monitoring needs over the next 25 years. The project team, consisting of specialists in participatory scenarios and academic researchers, developed an interactive approach that helped facilitate the exploration of a range of plausible changes in the region. Over two years, the team designed and executed a series of workshops to capitalize on the collective expertise of researchers, resource managers, industry representatives, and traditional and local knowledge holders on the North Slope. The goal of this process was to evaluate three energy and resource development scenarios, which incorporated biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, to assess the implications of development on high-priority biophysical resources and the subsistence lifestyle and well-being of its Inupiat residents. Due to the diversity of the stakeholders engaged in the process, the workshop materials and activities had to be carefully designed and executed, in order to provide an adequate platform for discussion of each scenario component, as well as generating products that would provide management-relevant information to the NSSI and its member entities. Each workshop implemented a participatory mapping component, which relied on the best available geospatial datasets to generate informational maps that enabled participants to effectively consider a wide range of variables and outcomes for each of the selected scenarios. In addition, the map sketches produced in each workshop were digitized and incorporated into a spatial analysis that evaluated the level of agreement between stakeholder groups, as well as evaluating the geographic overlap of development features and anticipated implications with terrestrial and marine habitats, subsistence hunting zones, and sensitive landscape elements such as permafrost. This presentation

Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

Science.gov (United States)

Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

2013-04-01

Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

Analytical methodology for optimization of waste management scenarios in nuclear installation decommissioning process - 16148

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zachar, Matej; Necas, Vladimir; Daniska, Vladimir; Rehak, Ivan; Vasko, Marek

2009-01-01

The nuclear installation decommissioning process is characterized by production of large amount of various radioactive and non-radioactive waste that has to be managed, taking into account its physical, chemical, toxic and radiological properties. Waste management is considered to be one of the key issues within the frame of the decommissioning process. During the decommissioning planning period, the scenarios covering possible routes of materials release into the environment and radioactive waste disposal, should be discussed and evaluated. Unconditional and conditional release to the environment, long-term storage at the nuclear site, near surface or deep geological disposal and relevant material management techniques for achieving the final status should be taken into account in the analysed scenarios. At the level of the final decommissioning plan, it is desirable to have the waste management scenario optimized for local specific facility conditions taking into account a national decommissioning background. The analytical methodology for the evaluation of decommissioning waste management scenarios, presented in the paper, is based on the materials and radioactivity flow modelling, which starts from waste generation activities like pre-dismantling decontamination, selected methods of dismantling, waste treatment and conditioning, up to materials release or conditioned radioactive waste disposal. The necessary input data for scenarios, e.g. nuclear installation inventory database (physical and radiological data), waste processing technologies parameters or material release and waste disposal limits, have to be considered. The analytical methodology principles are implemented into the standardised decommissioning parameters calculation code OMEGA, developed in the DECOM company. In the paper the examples of the methodology implementation for the scenarios optimization are presented and discussed. (authors)

Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

2018-03-15

Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L.; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

2008-01-01

The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-01-01

Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-07-01

Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

Science.gov (United States)

Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

2018-02-01

The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A methodology for scenario development based on understanding of long-term evolution of geological disposal systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Ebashi, Takeshi; Ueda, Hiroyoshi; Koyama, Toshihiro; Shiratsuchi, Hiroshi; Yashio, Shoko; Kawamura, Hideki

2012-01-01

We have developed a 'hybrid' scenario development method by combining bottom-up and top-down approaches and applied for the case of geological disposal of high-level waste. This approach provides a top-down perspective, by introducing a concept of safety functions for different periods and 'storyboards', which depict repository evolution with time on a range of spatial scales, and a bottom-up perspective, by identifying relationship between processes related to radionuclide migration and safety functions based on feature, event and process (FEP) management. Based on a trial study, we have specified work descriptions for each step of the hybrid scenario development methodology and confirmed that the storyboard provides a baseline and holistic overview for the FEP management and a common platform to involve close interaction with experts in various disciplines to understand the crossover phenomenological processes. We also confirmed that there is no conflict between the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach and the hybrid scenario development work frame fulfils the specified requirements for traceability, comprehensiveness, ease of understanding, integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and applicability to a staged approach to siting. (author)

Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each

Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

2005-09-07

For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barber, E.J. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

1991-12-31

In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

2015-01-01

This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

Advanced business process management in networked E-business scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grefen, P.W.P.J.; Türetken, O.

2017-01-01

In the modern economy, we see a shift towards networked business scenarios. In many contemporary situations, the operation of multiple organizations is tightly coupled in collaborative business networks. To allow this tightly coupled collaboration, business process management (BPM) in these

Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthias Rosenberg

2014-04-01

Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and �

PROCESS INNOVATION: HOLISTIC SCENARIOS TO REDUCE TOTAL LEAD TIME

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alin POSTEUCĂ

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The globalization of markets requires continuous development of business holistic scenarios to ensure acceptable flexibility to satisfy customers. Continuous improvement of supply chain supposes continuous improvement of materials and products lead time and flow, material stocks and finished products stocks and increasing the number of suppliers close by as possible. The contribution of our study is to present holistic scenarios of total lead time improvement and innovation by implementing supply chain policy.

Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

2017-12-01

There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

2008-11-01

This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

2014-01-01

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-08-15

Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

2011-01-01

The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Learning from global emissions scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2008-01-01

Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

2016-01-01

identification, description of accident scenarios and using the conventional approach to develop static event trees for events following a loss of containment. Modelling the impacts and consequences needs models to describe the release, dispersion and effect of the hazardous material, as well as models...

The prosa methodology for scenario development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grupa, J.B.

2001-01-01

In this paper a methodology for scenario development is proposed. The method is developed in an effort to convince ourselves (and others) that all conceivable future developments of a waste repository have been covered. To be able to assess all conceivable future developments, the method needs to be comprehensive. To convince us and others the method should be structured in such a way that the treatment of each conceivable future development is traceable. The methodology is currently being applied to two Dutch disposal designs. Preliminary results show that the elaborated method functions better than the original method. However, some elements in the method will need further refinement. (author)

Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

OPTIMAL STRESSOR SCENARIOS FOR NEW OPERATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEMS by Geoffrey E. Fastabend December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Alejandro S... ENERGY SYSTEMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Geoffrey E. Fastabend 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School...developed and tested simulation model for operational energy related systems in order to develop better stressor scenarios for acceptance testing

Integrated scenarios of regional development in Ceará and Piauí

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Gaiser, T.; Krol, M.S; Frischkorn, H.; de Araújo, J.C.

2003-01-01

Scenarios of the future are an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative-quantitative scenarios which show potential developments of

The Use of Professionalism Scenarios in the Medical School Interview Process: Faculty and Interviewee Perceptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Kleshinski, MD

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of professionalism scenarios on the medical school admissions process from applicant and faculty perspectives. Specifically, do completing professionalism scenarios as part of the medical school interview process have an impact on both the interviewee’s and the faculty’s perception of the process and outcome?Method: Ninety-one faculty interviewed 199 applicants from January 2007 through April 2007 at The University of Toledo College of Medicine. All applicants were asked one standard professionalism scenario in each of their two interviews. A total of six scenarios were used for the entire interviewing season in rotation every two months. A survey was administered by an admissions office staff member to both the interviewed applicants as well as faculty who conducted interviews about how these scenarios impacted their interview experience.Results: Asking applicants to respond to professionalism scenarios during the interview was described as having a positive influence on their interview experience. This was also associated with leaving an impression on the applicant about what our institution values in its students and contributed an element of personal reflection about what will be expected of them in the medical profession. Applicants more often reported that asking questions about professionalism was an important aspect of the interview than did faculty. Overall, there was an association between the interviewer’s perception of the applicant’s response and the interviewer’s assessment of professionalism.Conclusions: Professionalism scenarios can be a worthwhile tool for use in the admissions process. The interview process should encourage participation from faculty who value this as an important component in the evaluation of an applicant. Determinants of faculty perception of the role of assessing professionalism in the interview process should be investigated in future

Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

2014-12-01

The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

Developing a Robust Strategy Map in Balanced Scorecard Model Using Scenario Planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mostafa Jafari

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The key to successful strategy implementation in an organization is for people in the organization to understand it, which requires the establishment of complicated but vital processes whereby the intangible assets are converted into tangible outputs. In this regard, a strategy map is a useful tool that helps execute this difficult task. However, such maps are typically developed based on ambiguous cause-effect relationships that result from the extrapolation of past data and flawed links with possible futures. However, if the strategy map is a mere reflection of the status quo but not future conditions and does not embrace real-world uncertainties, it will endanger the organization since it posits that the current situation will continue. In order to compensate for this deficiency, the environmental scenarios affecting an organization were identified in the present study. Then the strategy map was developed in the form of a scenario-based balanced scorecard. Besides, the effect of environmental changes on the components of the strategy map was investigated using the strategy maps illustrated over time together with the corresponding cash flow vectors. Subsequently, a method was proposed to calculate the degree of robustness of every component of the strategy map for the contingency of every scenario. Finally, the results were applied to a post office.

Scenarios of socio-economic and energy development of the country up to 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsvetanov, P.

1990-01-01

The scenarios description is given as the first stage of a procedure of an energy-economy interrelations dynamics study, the other two stages being the formulation and the analysis of the development variants. The scenarios reflect quantitatively the policies and the international conditions for the socio-economic, energy demand and energy supply developments of the country. Two economic development scenarios ('high' - official macroeconomic views and 'low' - economic restructuring and decrease of energy intensity) hierarchically preside over the two corresponding energy demand scenarios of different technological evolutions ('traditional' and 'energy efficiency' oriented one) in the industry, the transport and the domestic and services sectors. Four energy supply system scenarios follow, corresponding to different approaches in the development of the energy conversion technologies and energy carriers, thus constituting a scenario tree of the studies. 16 refs., 2 figs., 7 tab., 1 ann. (R.Ts.)

Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

2012-11-15

With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Jakimi

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

SITE-94. Scenario development FEP audit list preparation: methodology and presentation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stenhouse, M.; Chapman, N.; Sumerling, T.

1993-04-01

This report concerns a study which is part of the SKI performance assessment project SITE-94. SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. Other important elements of SITE-94 are the development of a practical and defensible methodology for defining, constructing and analyzing scenarios, the development of approaches for treatment of uncertainties , evaluation of canister integrity, and the development and application of an appropriate quality assurance plan for performance assessments

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

The development of English primary care group governance. A scenario analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheaff, R

1999-01-01

At present there is a policy vacuum about what English Primary Care Groups' (PCGs) governance will be when they develop into Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). Draft legislation leaves many options open, so PCT governance is likely to 'emerge' as PCTs are created. It also remains uncertain how general practitioners (GPs) will react to the formation of PCTs and how the UK government will then respond in turn. A scenario analysis suggests three possible lines of development. The base (likeliest) scenario predicts a mainly networked form of PCT governance. An alternative scenario is of PCT governance resembling the former National Health Service internal market. A third scenario predicts 'franchise model' PCTs employing some GPs and subcontracting others. To different degrees all three scenarios predict that PCTs will retain elements of networked governance. If it fails to make GPs as accountable to NHS management as the UK government wishes, networked governance may prove only a transitional stage before English PCTs adopt either quasi-market or hierarchical governance.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Ruge

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

International bioenergy trade. Scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinimoe, J.; Pakarinen, V.; Ojanen, V.; Kaessi, T.

2007-01-01

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and the second involved an international group. A heuristic, semi structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes. The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial

Using scenario based programming to develop embedded control software

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bettiol, F.

2015-01-01

A new paradigm to develop embedded software is waking up the interest of companies. Its name is Scenario Based Programming and it claims to be a good approach to develop embedded software. Live Sequence Charts (LSC), a visual language supporting the paradigm, enables the developers to specify a

[New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

2012-07-01

With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

Scenarios constructed for the effects of tectonic processes on the potential nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Borns, D.J.; Fridrich, C.

1996-10-01

A comprehensive collection of scenarios is presented that connect initiating tectonic events with radionuclide releases by logical and physically possible combinations or sequences of features, events and processes. The initiating tectonic events include both discrete faulting and distributed rock deformation developed through the repository and adjacent to it, as well as earthquake-induced ground motion and changes in tectonic stress at the site. The effects of these tectonic events include impacts on the engineered-barrier system, such as container rupture and failure of repository tunnels. These effects also include a wide range of hydrologic effects such as changes in pathways and flow rates in the unsaturated and saturated zones, changes in the water-table configuration, and in the development of perched-water systems. These scenarios are intended go guide performance-assessment analyses and to assist principal investigators in how essential field, laboratory, and calculational studies are used. This suite of scenarios will help ensure that all important aspects of the system disturbance related to a tectonic scenario are captured in numerical analyses. It also provides a record of all options considered by project analysts to provide documentation required for licensing agreement. The final portion of this report discusses issues remaining to be addressed with respect to tectonic activity. 105 refs

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Concepts of Scenario Methods in Improvement of an Enterprise

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edyta Bielinska-Dusza

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the study, principal objectives, scope of the investigation, methods employed results and principal conclusion. Uncertainty makes both theoreticians and practicioners face new tasks to fulfil. Enterprises, in order to win the competitive struggle must constantly improve their processes and structures. On the other hand, thinking in the categories of the future becomes really difficult nowadays. This creates particularly convenient conditions to apply scenario methods. In connection with the above, the purpose of this study is to characterize the essence of scenario methods employed in enterprise development. The article addresses the issue of factors conditioning proper selection of methods in the enterprise development process, the principles of scenario planning and the opportunities to apply other techniques and methods in scenario planning.

The impact of power negotiations on nursing students learning processes in simulation scenario debriefing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frandsen, Anne; Topperzer, Martha; Sejr Olsen, Pernille

element to obtain critical reflection and learning (3). During debriefing students and facilitators jointly explore what happened in the scenario, and what should be focus of the prospective learning process (4). The aim of this paper is to explore how the negotiations of power (5) in the simulation...... scenario debriefing have an impact on the learning process for novice nursing students. References: Zapko et al 2015: Interdisciplinary Disaster Drill Simulation: Laying the Groundwork for further Research. Nurse Education Perspective Nov. Dec. 36(6):379-82 Motola et al 2013: Simulation in healthcare......Clinical simulation in nursing improves student`s ability to critical thinking, clinical judgement and clinical decision- making(1). The key elements to success are planning, pre- briefing, engagement, a realistic scenario with interruptions and debriefing (2). Debriefing is highlighted as the key...

THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann; Hernelind, Jan

2010-03-01

A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code B right. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden)); Hernelind, Jan (5T-Engineering AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden))

2010-03-15

A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code-Bright. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

OpenAIRE

Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

2013-01-01

The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional a...

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M Adams

Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Scenarios for ITS telecommunications technologies development in Poland for the years 2007-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kazimierz BARTCZAK

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The article shows four scenarios for the development of ITS communications technologies in Poland for the years 2007-2013. Global Business Network methodology is used to make up the scenarios. The basic dimensions of the scenarios are (a type of sectors in the national economy (public vs. private, (b type of communications technology (wireline vs. wireless. The scenarios present possible futures.

Process Fragment Libraries for Easier and Faster Development of Process-based Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Schumm

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The term “process fragment” is recently gaining momentum in business process management research. We understand a process fragment as a connected and reusable process structure, which has relaxed completeness and consistency criteria compared to executable processes. We claim that process fragments allow for an easier and faster development of process-based applications. As evidence to this claim we present a process fragment concept and show a sample collection of concrete, real-world process fragments. We present advanced application scenarios for using such fragments in development of process-based applications. Process fragments are typically managed in a repository, forming a process fragment library. On top of a process fragment library from previous work, we discuss the potential impact of using process fragment libraries in cross-enterprise collaboration and application integration.

Scenario Approach to the Development and Use of Learning Management System in Universities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martyushova Y.G.,

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The article offers a scenario approach to the design of learning management system (LMS structure. It is argued that the LMS structure and it functional components depend on the scenarios of its use in educational process which, in turn, are determined by the type of subject that is based on the main component of education content. There are three categories of the LMS users in the educational process in university: students, teachers, and administrators, and their roles differ from each other. The article provides detailed scenarios of how the LMS is used by various categories of users and describes the structure of the LMS in relation to these scenarios. On the one hand, the LMS represents a structured base of content: that is, it contains theoretical materials as well as tasks and exercises along with certain scales that reflect their difficulty. The weight of these tasks, initially determined by experts, can then be automatically corrected using the methods of mathematical statistics. On the other hand, implementing the described scenarios requires an electronic operating cover of the LMS, among the functions of which is the organization of control and self-checking, as well as providing storage and processing statistics of the LMS use. These statistics should then be automatically turned into the current rating of users which is important for knowledge evaluation and support of learning motivation in students during a semester.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

Design and development of driving simulator scenarios for road validation studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dols Ruiz, J.F.

2016-07-01

In recent years, the number of road-based studies using driving simulators is growing significantly. This allows evaluating controlled situations that otherwise would require disproportionate observations in time and/or cost. The Institute of Design and Manufacturing (IDF) of the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) has developed, in collaboration with the Engineering Research Group Highway (GIIC) of the UPV, a low cost simulator that allows rapid implementation and effectively a new methodology for validation studies of different roads through the implementation in the simulator scenarios of existing roads. This methodology allows the development of new scenarios based on the analysis of a layers-file system. Each layer includes different information from the road, such as mapping, geometry, signaling, aerial photos, etc. The creation of the simulated scenario is very fast based on the geometric design software, making it easier to consulting firms using the system that can evaluate and audit a particular route, obtaining reliable conclusions at minimal cost, even if the road is not actually built. This paper describes the basic structure of the layers generated for developing scenarios and guidelines for the implementation thereof. Finally the application of this methodology to a case of success will be described. (Author)

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-12-31

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kok, K.; Biggs, R.; Zurek, M.

2007-01-01

Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple

Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas

2008-01-01

different perspectives. However, this task is all but easy as it requires a careful balancing of approaches and an acceptance of different levels of knowledge and trust in different methods across disciplinary boundaries. In spite of a growing body of literature we are still in the early stages of learning......-term alternative land use scenarios in cooperation with experts and modellers. The scenarios have been used in a formal outreach process with key clients and stakeholders at the European and Member State level afterwards. The aim of this paper is to document the methods used, analyse their strengths and weaknesses...... effectively trigger strategic conversations among policy-makers and key stakeholders about potential future developments and related response strategies. A weak integration with quantitative results can undermine this outcome, which is one of the ultimate objectives of any scenario exercise....

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

Overview description of the base scenario derived from FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment - timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD), provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs which form part of the natural evolution of the system and those which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics

Supporting conceptual product design by hybrid simulation of use processes with scenario structures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van der Vegte, W.F.; Horváth, I.

2007-01-01

The approach described in this paper aims to offer designers a new way to investigate use processes of products by integrating scenarios of expected user behaviour with simulations of physical artefact behaviour. Use is considered a key process in the life cycle of a product, being the phase in

Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

Science.gov (United States)

Alinier, Guillaume

2011-01-01

The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

Linking regional stakeholder scenarios and shared socioeconomic pathways

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Palazzo, Amanda; Vervoort, Joost M.; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel

2017-01-01

levels, they have to be connected to an exploration of drivers and challenges informed by regional expertise.In this paper, we present scenarios for West Africa developed by regional stakeholders and quantified using two global economic models, GLOBIOM and IMPACT, in interaction with stakeholder......-generated narratives and scenario trends and SSP assumptions. We present this process as an example of linking comparable scenarios across levels to increase coherence with global contexts, while presenting insights about the future of agriculture and food security under a range of future drivers including climate...... change.In these scenarios, strong economic development increases food security and agricultural development. The latter increases crop and livestock productivity leading to an expansion of agricultural area within the region while reducing the land expansion burden elsewhere. In the context of a global...

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Potato processing scenario in India: Industrial constraints, future projections, challenges ahead and remedies - A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Marwaha, R S; Pandey, S K; Kumar, Dinesh; Singh, S V; Kumar, Parveen

2010-03-01

Indian potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) processing industry has emerged fast due to economic liberalization coupled with growing urbanization, expanding market options and development of indegenous processing varieties. India's first potato processing varieties 'Kufri Chipsona-1' and 'Kufri Chipsona-2' were developed in 1998, followed by an improved processing variety 'Kufri Chipsona-3' in 2005 for the Indian plains and first chipping variety 'Kufri Himsona' for the hills. These varieties have >21% tuber dry matter content, contain low reducing sugars (products. The availability of these varieties and standardization of storage techniques for processing potatoes at 10-12°C with sprout suppressant isopropyl N-(3-chlorophenyl) carbamate have revolutionized the processing scenario within a short span of 10 years. Currently about 4% of total potato produce is being processed in organized and unorganized sector. Potato processing industry mainly comprises 4 segments: potato chips, French fries, potato flakes/powder and other processed products. However, potato chips still continue to be the most popular processed product. The major challenge facing the industries lies in arranging round the year supply of processing varieties at reasonable price for their uninterrupted operation, besides several others which have been discussed at length and addressed with concrete solutions.

Development of Accident Scenarios and Quantification Methodology for RAON Accelerator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yongjin; Jae, Moosung

2014-01-01

The RIsp (Rare Isotope Science Project) plans to provide neutron-rich isotopes (RIs) and stable heavy ion beams. The accelerator is defined as radiation production system according to Nuclear Safety Law. Therefore, it needs strict operate procedures and safety assurance to prevent radiation exposure. In order to satisfy this condition, there is a need for evaluating potential risk of accelerator from the design stage itself. Though some of PSA researches have been conducted for accelerator, most of them focus on not general accident sequence but simple explanation of accident. In this paper, general accident scenarios are developed by Event Tree and deduce new quantification methodology of Event Tree. In this study, some initial events, which may occur in the accelerator, are selected. Using selected initial events, the accident scenarios of accelerator facility are developed with Event Tree. These results can be used as basic data of the accelerator for future risk assessments. After analyzing the probability of each heading, it is possible to conduct quantification and evaluate the significance of the accident result. If there is a development of the accident scenario for external events, risk assessment of entire accelerator facility will be completed. To reduce the uncertainty of the Event Tree, it is possible to produce a reliable data via the presented quantification techniques

Development of steady-state scenarios compatible with ITER-like wall conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litaudon, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Arnoux, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Beurskens, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)] (and others)

2007-12-15

A key issue for steady-state tokamak operation is to determine the edge conditions that are compatible both with good core confinement and with the power handling and plasma exhaust capabilities of the plasma facing components (PFCs) and divertor systems. A quantitative response to this open question will provide a robust scientific basis for reliable extrapolation of present regimes to an ITER compatible steady-state scenario. In this context, the JET programme addressing steady-state operation is focused on the development of non-inductive, high confinement plasmas with the constraints imposed by the PFCs. A new beryllium main chamber wall and tungsten divertor together with an upgrade of the heating/fuelling capability are currently in preparation at JET. Operation at higher power with this ITER-like wall will impose new constraints on non-inductive scenarios. Recent experiments have focused on the preparation for this new phase of JET operation. In this paper, progress in the development of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios at JET is reviewed keeping this long-term objective in mind. The approach has consisted of addressing various critical issues separately during the 2006-2007 campaigns with a view to full scenario integration when the JET upgrades are complete. Regimes with internal transport barriers (ITBs) have been developed at q{sub 95} {approx} 5 and high triangularity, {delta} (relevant to the ITER steady-state demonstration) by applying more than 30 MW of additional heating power reaching {beta}{sub N} {approx} 2 at B{sub o} {approx} 3.1 T. Operating at higher {delta} has allowed the edge pedestal and core densities to be increased pushing the ion temperature closer to that of the electrons. Although not yet fully integrated into a performance enhancing ITB scenario, Neon seeding has been successfully explored to increase the radiated power fraction (up to 60%), providing significant reduction of target tile power fluxes (and hence temperatures) and

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

Science.gov (United States)

Sherwin, P.

1981-01-01

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

2005-01-01

The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

2009-01-01

Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

Development scenario for laser fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

1976-01-01

This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

Systematic approach to scenario development using FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, L.E.E.; Lever, D.A.

2001-01-01

UK regulatory requirements require that the 'assessed radiological risk ... to a representative member of the potentially exposed group at greatest risk should be consistent with a risk target of 10 -6 per year' and that risks should be 'summed over all situations that could give rise to exposure to the group'. It is a further requirement that a repository performance assessment provides a 'comprehensive record of the judgements and assumptions on which the risk assessments are based'. In order to meet these requirements, Nirex, working with AEA Technology, has developed an approach to performance assessment based on the identification and analysis of features, events and processes (FEPs). The objectives of the approach are to provide a comprehensive, traceable and clear presentation of a performance assessment for a deep geological radioactive waste repository. The approach to scenario development is fundamental to the overall Nirex strategy for performance assessment, eventually leading to a repository safety case for regulatory submission. This paper outlines the main concepts of the approach, illustrated with examples of work undertaken by Nirex to demonstrate its practicality. Due to the current status of the Nirex repository programme, the approach has not yet been used to conduct a full performance assessment of a repository located at a specific site. (authors)

Scenario development and evaluation for the NPP Krsko revised decommissioning program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Levanat, I.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

2004-01-01

In this first revision, several integrated scenarios of the NPP Krsko dismantling and waste management were developed and analyzed in order to estimate the decommissioning program (DP) costs and to propose an appropriate funding plan. Most dismantling technologies and cost estimates were derived from the original decommissioning plan adopted in 1996. The LILW disposal cost estimates, however, rely on the tunnel type facility design which was developed in Slovenia a few years ago, whereas the SF repository design for this DP was adapted from the Swedish deep disposal concept. The starting assumptions for this DP were that the LILW repository would be licensed by 2013, the NPP would be permanently shut down in 2023, and the SF repository would become available in 2030. The boundary conditions also specified that DP should first re-evaluate the SID strategy from the original plan (Strategy Immediate Dismantling with immediate SF disposal, but also with a long period of on-site decay storage for the activated components, so that it actually terminates only after 96 years), and then modify it to achieve truly prompt decommissioning in which all planned activities should be completed within about 15 years after the NPP shut-down. In addition, the option of SF export to a third country should be introduced in all DP scenarios, as a realistic alternative to SF disposal into the local repository (in Slovenia or in Croatia). And finally, dry storage of SF for some 30 years before disposal or export, in an independent installation on unspecified location, should be evaluated within the DP sensitivity analysis. After a thorough analysis of the original SID strategy, it became clear that substantial modifications would be necessary in order to meet the boundary conditions while complying with the specified design and technologies of the assumed LILW and SF disposal facilities. Therefore, a systematic procedure for development and financial evaluation of feasible scenarios was

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Land Access Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Levine, Aaron L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-10-04

Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including access to land. Activities required for accessing land, such as environmental review and private and public leasing can take a considerable amount of time and can delay or prevent project development. This paper discusses the impacts to available geothermal resources and deployment caused by land access challenges, including tribal and cultural resources, environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land ownership, federal and state lease queues, and proximity to military installations. In this analysis, we identified challenges that have the potential to prevent development of identified and undiscovered hydrothermal geothermal resources. We found that an estimated 400 MW of identified geothermal resource potential and 4,000 MW of undiscovered geothermal resource potential were either unallowed for development or contained one or more significant barriers that could prevent development at the site. Potential improvement scenarios that could be employed to overcome these barriers include (1) providing continuous funding to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) for processing geothermal leases and permit applications and (2) the creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures. The model results forecast that continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 80 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 124 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures coupled with continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 97 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 152 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The small impact on potential deployment in these improvement scenarios suggests that these 4,400 MW have other barriers to development in addition to land access. In other words, simply

Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

2015-01-01

There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as

Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

1997-11-01

The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN PROJECT FEATURE, EVENT, AND PROCESS (FEP) DATABASE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freeze, G.; Swift, P.; Brodsky, N.

2000-01-01

A Total System Performance Assessment for Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) has recently been completed (CRWMS M andO, 2000b) for the potential high-level waste repository at the Yucca Mountain site. The TSPA-SR is an integrated model of scenarios and processes relevant to the postclosure performance of the potential repository. The TSPA-SR scenarios and model components in turn include representations of all features, events, and processes (FEPs) identified as being relevant (i.e., screened in) for analysis. The process of identifying, classifying, and screening potentially relevant FEPs thus provides a critical foundation for scenario development and TSPA analyses for the Yucca Mountain site (Swift et al., 1999). The objectives of this paper are to describe (a) the identification and classification of the comprehensive list of FEPs potentially relevant to the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository, and (b) the development, structure, and use of an electronic database for storing and retrieving screening information about the inclusion and/or exclusion of these Yucca Mountain FEPs in TSPA-SR. The FEPs approach to scenario development is not unique to the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). General systematic approaches are summarized in NEA (1992). The application of the FEPs approach in several other international radioactive waste disposal programs is summarized in NEA ( 1999)

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miles, J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Zammit, D. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Loomis, D. [Great Lakes Wind Network, Cleveland, OH (United States)

2015-02-01

This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sayers, Nicola

2011-01-01

Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

Ethicted (evaluation process model to improve personalised ICT services for independent living and active ageing)--future scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Kärki, Anne; Sävel, Jaana; Sallinen, Merja; Kuusinen, Jere

2013-01-01

ICT innovations are constantly developed, and there is no lack of elderly customers, as the number of the elderly is dramatically increasing. Elderly are willing to use ICT to increase their own safety and social activity, but they need trust on the reliability, accessibility and other ethical aspects of ICT including the maintenance of privacy and self-determination. Ethical standards for ICT are usually not considered. "Ethicted" characterizes an ICT service or product as ethically evaluated. As a standardized procedure, it will not only increase the acceptability of ICT, but also provide services for ICT developers. In the future scenario, ICT under development should be evaluated by using a process model that is specifically built to find the lacks in ethical aspects. The model would then be tested by end-users, the formal and informal care givers, to receive direct feedback for redeveloping solutions. As final outcomes, there should be standards for ICT in elderly care and a service for ICT developers to utilize the evaluation model. This future scenario work included partners from 6 EU member countries. The combination of academic research and industrial/commercial interest of ICT developers should and can bring new value to assistive ICT for elderly care.

The 2 oC scenario-A sustainable world energy perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krewitt, Wolfram; Simon, Sonja; Graus, Wina; Teske, Sven; Zervos, Arthouros; Schaefer, Oliver

2007-01-01

A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 o C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 o C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%

Development of a safety decision-making scenario to measure worker safety in agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosher, G A; Keren, N; Freeman, S A; Hurburgh, C R

2014-04-01

Human factors play an important role in the management of occupational safety, especially in high-hazard workplaces such as commercial grain-handling facilities. Employee decision-making patterns represent an essential component of the safety system within a work environment. This research describes the process used to create a safety decision-making scenario to measure the process that grain-handling employees used to make choices in a safety-related work task. A sample of 160 employees completed safety decision-making simulations based on a hypothetical but realistic scenario in a grain-handling environment. Their choices and the information they used to make their choices were recorded. Although the employees emphasized safety information in their decision-making process, not all of their choices were safe choices. Factors influencing their choices are discussed, and implications for industry, management, and workers are shared.

Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

2008-01-01

The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

Science.gov (United States)

Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

2017-10-01

Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

Challenges and opportunities of international biomass market: Findings from a scenario study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinimoe, J. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Mikkeli (Finland)); Ojanen, V.; Koessi, T. (Lappeenranta University of Technology, Lappeenranta (Finland))

2007-07-01

The markets of biomass are developing rapidly and becoming more international. Although biomass has potential to become a more important source of energy, the remarkable increase in biomass use for energy needs parallel and positive development in several sectors and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. To support the positive development of market and to make the most of the development it is needed to have understanding about the market dynamics. The objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020 and based on the scenario process to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. A heuristic semi structured approach was applied in the scenario processes. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The scenario analysis shows the key issues on the field: global economic growth including the growing need of energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of the technological development to solve the global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for the global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. (orig.)

Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Jacinto

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

Exploring scenarios for more sustainable heating: The case of Niš, Serbia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zivkovic, Marija; Pereverza, Kateryna; Pasichnyi, Oleksii; Madzarevic, Aleksandar; Ivezic, Dejan; Kordas, Olga

2016-01-01

Sustainability transformation of the heating sector is recognised as being essential for reaching climate and environmental targets while improving the quality of life in cities worldwide. Participatory strategic planning enabled by scenario methods can be an important tool to guide this transformation, but methods for qualitative scenario analysis supporting stakeholder participation must be further developed and tested in the context of different cities. This paper presents results from integration of urban energy system modelling into the participatory strategic planning process implemented in the city of Niš, which suffers problems typical of the heating sector in Serbia and the Western Balkans. The aim was to explore how the scenarios developed by local stakeholders could transform the Niš heating system by 2030. Five scenarios developed within participatory backcasting project and a BAU scenario were analysed in terms of decarbonisation, energy security and energy efficiency using Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP). A final scenario “Efficiency for the green future” designed by the stakeholders for implementation in the city included high standards of energy efficiency in buildings, increased share of renewables in the heating energy mix, expanding the district heating system, deploying smart technologies and green architecture. The LEAP model demonstrated that this final scenario could lead to achievement of the desirable future vision developed by stakeholders for Niš, through substantial improvements in energy efficiency and energy security, and to considerable emissions decreases by 2030 in comparison with the base year (2010) and the BAU scenario. - Highlights: • Energy system modelling is integrated into the participatory backcasting process. • Five scenarios and BAU for heating system in Niš by 2030 are analysed in LEAP. • The final scenario is based on EE, RES, DH, smart technologies and green architecture. • The

Scenario Development and Delphi Application in Life Cycle Assessment for Assessing Environmental Impact of New Technology Case Study: Removal of Wind Turbines Project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Devina Fitrika Dewi

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Certain technology is intended to create eco-efficient products or process or is developed as answer to the recent challenge. This kind of technology consequently can also create another impact therefore it shall be assessed and analyzed.The focus of the study is on assessment method namely Life Cycle Analysis (LCA, Scenario development and Delphi application. The objective is to understand benefits and drawbacks of the combined methodology and observe practicality of its implementation for assessing new technology. The distinctive feature comes from the combination of social and technological foresight (as Delphi application and future studies (as Scenario development which are applied in the environmental assessment of a product (by Life Cycle Analysis.The utilization of LCA-Scenario-Delphi case study as an explanatory example is presented in the Removal Wind Turbines Project by the Danish Energy Agency. The wind turbine is considered new technology with some of it phases are yet to occur, for example: removal of turbines after phase out stage. Technology Assessment by LCA-Scenario-Delphi is complicated procedure, but necessary to validate the results. The drawbacks of this procedure are extensive time it consumes and the dependency on public participation and/or expert willingness to participate. Nonetheless, its advantages are due to its interactive feature; integration of knowledge from different areas of expertise and its assessment’s characteristic which focuses on process.

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

2014-04-01

The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

Integrated Scenarios of Regional Development in Two Semi-Arid States of North-Eastern Brazil

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.

2002-01-01

Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative¿quantitative scenarios that show potential

Future scenarios for the development of nuclear power. How will nuclear power develop over the next twenty to forty years?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pickett, Susan E.

2009-01-01

Nuclear power technology has developed significantly over the past 60 years to the point that today it supplies the world with 15% of its electricity; and there are plans for continued development. However, the continued growth of nuclear power is not without challenges. The nuclear industry must remain competitive in the face of challenges ranging from environmental considerations and proliferation concerns to ensuring safe and often transparent operations. Understanding these and other issues, as well as their underlying causes, can help the industry leaders create more robust strategies and effectively implement nuclear fuel cycle decisions. Robust strategies are ones that can be effective even when circumstances change, due to events such as opposition, new scientific information, changes in resource availability, or introduction of competing technologies. Scenario planning is tool which can help planners and decision makers create a strategic conversation about the future and how to manage and plan in a time of accelerated change and complexity. In this paper, scenario planning is introduced and the development of nuclear power is examined against the back drop of four future scenarios, specifically looking at how variations in environmental quality, resource availability, security and proliferation, and safety may affect the development of nuclear power. The scenarios discussed provide a starting point to improve the understanding of issues and opportunities facing the global nuclear power industry and ultimately, to improve strategies for technology development. Such scenarios may be employed as a basis for collaboration and communication amongst the stakeholders involved in the development of nuclear technology. (author)

Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1977-12-01

This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program

Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1977-12-01

This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program.

Scenarios for the Strategic Planning of Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volker Grienitz

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Manufacturing based corporations often find themselves confronted with complexities of increased pressures to innovate in order to ensure their comparative market positions. In order to react to various exogenous changes corporations need to develop strategies that match their manufacturing resources as well as products with the markets requirements. Technology scenarios represent a holistic approach for managing innovation processes and technologies efficiently. A multidimensional requirement catalogue for specific product- market- combinations represents the fundamental building block for the ranking of particular material- components and technologies. The following analysis through evolutionary algorithms for compatibility between and amongst them provides the necessary information about their suitability. The resulting scenarios and roadmap and a regular monitoring process are prerequisite for the managerial decision making process and the implementation technology strategies.

A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gambhir, Ajay; Schulz, Niels; Napp, Tamaryn; Tong, Danlu; Munuera, Luis; Faist, Mark; Riahi, Keywan

2013-01-01

This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important. - Highlights: • Combining energy supply and demand models reveals low-carbon technology choices across China's economy. • China could reduce its CO 2 emissions to close to 3 Gt in 2050, costing around 2% of GDP. • Decarbonising the power sector underpins the energy system transformation. • Electrification of industrial processes, building heating and transport is required. • Energy efficiency across the demand side is also important

Journal Article: Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

2007-04-01

Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

2009-01-01

This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tegen, S.

2014-11-01

NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

Summary of FY-1978 consultation input for Scenario Methodology Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, B.L.; Benson, G.L.; Craig, R.A.; Harwell, M.A.

1979-11-01

The Scenario Methodology Development task is concerned with evaluating the geologic system surrounding an underground repository and describing the phenomena (volcanic, seismic, meteorite, hydrologic, tectonic, climate, etc.) which could perturb the system and possibly cause loss of repository integrity. This document includes 14 individual papers. Separate abstracts were prepared for all 14 papers

Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nadolski, Rob; Slootmaker, Aad; Hummel, Hans

2009-01-01

Nadolski, R. J., Slootmaker, A., & Hummel, H. G. K. (2009). Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation given at Online Educa. December, 3-4, 2009, Berlin, Germany. [For Powerpoint-version of this presentation. Please

Base case and perturbation scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmunds, T

1998-10-01

quantitative scoring system for issue areas were applied under the base case, a tractable quantitative decision model incorporating scenarios and their likelihoods could be developed and appli& in the decision process. LLNL has developed four perturbation scenarios that address the following issues: l} low economic growth, 2) high natural gas prices, 3) dysfunctional markets, and 4) a preference for green power. We have proposed a plausible scenario that addresses each issue for discussion and consideration by the CEC. In addition, we have provided an example application of the four perturbation scenarios in a qualitative framework for evaluation of issue areas developed for the PIEPC program. A description of each of the perturbation scenarios and a discussion of how they could effect decisions about today' s R&D funding is included. The scenarios attempt to cover a broad spectrum of plausible outcomes in a deregulated market environment. Nowever, Vhey are not a comprehensive and rigorously defined list of the most probable scenarios, but rather a qualitative inference based upon knowledge and expertise in the energy field.

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey; Cabrall, Chris; Homola, Jeff; Callantine, Todd

2013-01-01

Within the Human Factors Division at NASA Ames Research Center the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) is developing advanced automation concepts that help to transform the National Airspace System into NextGen, the Next Generation Air Transportation System. High-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations are used as a means to investigate and develop roles, responsibilities, support tools, and requirements for human operators and automation. This paper describes the traffic scenario design process and strategies as used by AOL researchers. Details are presented on building scenarios for specific simulation objectives using various design strategies. A focus is set on creating scenarios based on recorded real world traffic for terminal-area simulations.

Integration of software for scenario exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

1999-03-01

The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Schreiner, GO

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Romem

2007-07-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flynn, W.T.

1986-12-01

This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

2017-01-01

existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

Sensitivity of Transmutation Capability to Recycling Scenarios in KALIMER-600 TRU Burner

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong Kyo; Kim, Myung Hyun

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to test transmutation and design feasibility of KALIMER burner caused from many limitations in recycling options; such as low recovery factors and external feed. Design impact from many recycling options will be tested as a sensitivity to various recycling process parameters under many recycling scenarios. Through this study, possibilities when Pyro-processing is realized with SFR can be expected in the recycling scenarios. For the development of sodium-cooled fast reactor(SFR) technology, prototype KALIMER plant is now under R and D stage in Korea. For the future application of SFR for waste transmutation, KALIMER core was designed for TRU burner by KAERI. Feasibility of TRU burner cannot be evaluated exactly because overall functional parameters in pyro-processing recycling process has not been verified yet. There is great possibility to accept undesirable process functions in pyro-processing. Only TRU nuclides composition a little differs between PWR SF and CANDU SF so first scenario has no problem operating SFR. In second scenario, the radiotoxicity of waste at 99% of TRU RF have to be confirmed whether it is proper level to reposit as Low and Intermediate Level Wastes or not. And the reactor safety at high RF of RE must be inspected. Not only third scenario but also several scenarios for good measure are being calculated and will be evaluated

Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

Science.gov (United States)

Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

Introduction to the first international workshop on process management for highly dynamic and pervasive scenarios (PM4HDPS 2008)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leoni, de M.; Dustdar, S.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Ardagna, D.; Mecella, M.; Yang, J.

2009-01-01

Nowadays, process management systems (PMSs) are widely used in many business scenarios, e.g. by government agencies, by insurance companies, and by banks. Despite this widespread usage, the typical application of such systems is predominantly in the context of static scenarios, instead of pervasive

Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groenewold, W.G.F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

2014-01-01

This paper presents four population and development scenarios for 11 South and East Mediterranean countries (SEMC) for the period 2010-2050. Focus of analysis of scenario results is on working age population prospects, economic consequences, migration pressure in four migrant-sending SEMCs (Algeria,

Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Žiga Malek

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

2015-04-01

The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

2000-01-01

Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

Electricity and heat system development scenarios integrated in the energy system sustainable development in Romania in the period 2005 - 2025

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marin, Otilia; Leca, Aureliu

2004-01-01

After 50 years of centralized economy, since 1989, Romania faces many challenges related to the internal conditions and to the new trends in energy markets over the world as: the existing low efficiency and availability, fast structural changes; the decentralization and privatization of the energy sector with new structures and entities; integration in EU and NATO structures. At present, with transition from the national vertical integrated monopolies to an open market, the determination of the global optimum development scenario of the power and heat sector becomes more important in order to find the policy which can lead the own strategies of different companies involved on market to a sustainable development of the society. The paper presents four long term development scenarios of the electricity and heat sector quantified from different points of view: technical, economical, environmental, social criteria, security of supply, risk diminishing etc and it continues by determining the long term global optimum development scenario integrated in the sustainable energy system. (authors)

Towards an optimal adaptation of exposure to NOAA assessment methodology in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS): the challenges and the decision-making process

Science.gov (United States)

López de Ipiña, JM; Vaquero, C.; Gutierrez-Cañas, C.

2017-06-01

It is expected a progressive increase of the industrial processes that manufacture of intermediate (iNEPs) and end products incorporating ENMs (eNEPs) to bring about improved properties. Therefore, the assessment of occupational exposure to airborne NOAA will migrate, from the simple and well-controlled exposure scenarios in research laboratories and ENMs production plants using innovative production technologies, to much more complex exposure scenarios located around processes of manufacture of eNEPs that, in many cases, will be modified conventional production processes. Here will be discussed some of the typical challenging situations in the process of risk assessment of inhalation exposure to NOAA in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS), from the basis of the lessons learned when confronted to those scenarios in the frame of some European and Spanish research projects.

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

2014-01-01

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harald Kling

2014-07-01

New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1991-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Even tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, we discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Comprehensive scenario management of sustainable spatial planning and urban water services.

Science.gov (United States)

Baron, Silja; Hoek, Jannis; Kaufmann Alves, Inka; Herz, Sabine

2016-01-01

Adaptations of existing central water supply and wastewater disposal systems to demographic, climatic and socioeconomic changes require a profound knowledge about changing influencing factors. The paper presents a scenario management approach for the identification of future developments of drivers influencing water infrastructures. This method is designed within a research project with the objective of developing an innovative software-based optimisation and decision support system for long-term transformations of existing infrastructures of water supply, wastewater and energy in rural areas. Drivers of water infrastructures comprise engineering and spatial factors and these are predicted by different methods and techniques. The calculated developments of the drivers are illustrated for a model municipality. The developed scenario-manager enables the generation of comprehensive scenarios by combining different drivers. The scenarios are integrated into the optimisation model as input parameters. Furthermore, the result of the optimisation process - an optimal transformation strategy for water infrastructures - can have impacts on the existing fee system. General adaptation possibilities of the present fee system are presented.

KTM Tokamak operation scenarios software infrastructure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pavlov, V.; Baystrukov, K.; Golobkov, YU.; Ovchinnikov, A.; Meaentsev, A.; Merkulov, S.; Lee, A. [National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk (Russian Federation); Tazhibayeva, I.; Shapovalov, G. [National Nuclear Center (NNC), Kurchatov (Kazakhstan)

2014-10-15

One of the largest problems for tokamak devices such as Kazakhstan Tokamak for Material Testing (KTM) is the operation scenarios' development and execution. Operation scenarios may be varied often, so a convenient hardware and software solution is required for scenario management and execution. Dozens of diagnostic and control subsystems with numerous configuration settings may be used in an experiment, so it is required to automate the subsystem configuration process to coordinate changes of the related settings and to prevent errors. Most of the diagnostic and control subsystems software at KTM was unified using an extra software layer, describing the hardware abstraction interface. The experiment sequence was described using a command language. The whole infrastructure was brought together by a universal communication protocol supporting various media, including Ethernet and serial links. The operation sequence execution infrastructure was used at KTM to carry out plasma experiments.

Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de; Andrade, E.R. de

2017-01-01

The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, E.R. de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, Edson Ramos de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de

2017-01-01

The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

Setting UP a decontamination and dismantling (D and D) scenario - methodology and tools developed leopard

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pradoura, F.

2009-01-01

At the AREVA NC La Hague site, the former nuclear spent fuel reprocessing plant UP2-400 was shutdown on December 30, 2003. Since then, the cleaning up and dismantling activities have been carried by the DV/PRO project, which is the program management organization settled by AREVA NC, for valorization projects. SGN, part of the AREVA NC Engineering Business Unit, operates as the main contractor of the DV/PRO project and provides project management services related to decommissioning and waste management. Hence, SGN is in charge of building D and D's scenarios for all the facilities of the UP2-400 plant, in compliance with safety, technical and financial requirements. Main outputs are logic diagrams, block flow diagrams, wastes and effluents throughputs. In order to meet with AREVA NC's requirements and expectations, SGN developed specific process and tools methods adapted to the scale and complexity of decommissioning a plant with several facilities, with different kind of processes (chemical, mechanical), some of which are in operation and other being dismantled. Considering the number of technical data and inputs to be managed, this methodology leads to complex outputs such as schedules, throughputs, work packages... The development, the maintenance and the modification of these outputs become more and more difficult with the complexity and the size of the plant considered. To cope with these issues, SGN CDE/DEM UP2-400 project team has developed a dedicated tool to assist and optimize in elaborating D and D scenarios. This tool is named LEOPARD (Logiciel d'Elaboration et d'Optimisation des Programmes d'Assainissement Radiologique et de Demantelement) (Software for the Development and Optimization of Radiological Clean up and Dismantling Programs). The availability of this tool allowed the rapid construction of a test case (demonstrator) that has convinced DV/PRO of its numerous advantages and of the future further development potentials. Presentations of LEOPARD

Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

2007-01-01

Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

Developing Learning Scenarios for Educational Web Radio: a Learning Design Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Triantafyllou, Evangelia; Liokou, Effrosyni; Economou, Anastasia

2018-01-01

schools. In this paper, we present a survey study that aimed to evaluate a Visual Learning Design (VLD) approach for developing educational scenari-os in web radio. The study results indicated that the VLD approach helped teachers to think about the educational aspects of the web radio production...

Research study for extremely unlikely scenario of high level waste disposal: Part 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohkubo, Hiroo

1999-02-01

In this research, first, event and process relevant to the key words (or scenario initiator) such as volcanism have been identified and, especially a middle-scale eruption scenario including pyroclastic flows has been analyzed as the catastrophic scenario, which inspires ordinary people to have tremendous concern. Secondly, based upon the characteristic events and processes of each scenario considered in the above and through the research of existing model of such risk, quantitative concept (release amount magnitude, release mode, release form, frequency of release, probability etc.) and impact on repository system, facility and environment have been analyzed, defended and defined. Model which can assess and analyze such impact has been built. Using these models, risks directly or indirectly caused by HLW repository have been calculated. Finally, the process for assessing the consequence of volcanism scenario and its risk calculated by the model developed in the above have been visualized, and presented by comparing with other risks. (author)

Methodology for the development of scenarios for the evaluation of the behaviour of a deep geological repository for high-level radioactive waste in a granite formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortes Martin, A.; Alonso, J.; Gonzalez, E.

1996-01-01

In time, deep geological repositories for radioactive waste undergo significant environmental changes caused either by natural processes or by human actions. In view of a long-term safety analysis, it is fundamental to identify all the possible evolutions of the system. This process is denominated scenario development. This paper deals with the methodology used to generate scenarios within the framework of the AGP (Deep Geological Repository) project for assessing behaviour in granite medium. It begins with a brief description of the methodology used to identify the relevant factors for the safety analysis on the system. It then presents the details of the actual scenario-generating methodology which consists of dividing the entire system into barrier states or subsystems a graphic procedure by means of which the factors are represented in relation to their predictable impact or extent of their effect on the subsystems. This methodology is a good tool for displaying and grouping the most significant scenarios for the subsequent analysis of consequences. (Author)

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1990-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Basovníková

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Development of burning plasma and advanced scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luce, T.C.

2005-01-01

Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q ∼ 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque. (author)

Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

Forecasting Actions of Baltic elites: A Scenario Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smirnov Vadim A.

2016-09-01

Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of different approaches to forecasting the future of the three Baltic States. The author’s theoretical approach to studying Baltic elites is used to forecast changes in the action models of the Baltic elites. The article stresses the scarcity of internal political processes in the Baltics. However, a significant number of scenarios focusing on military aspects in the Baltics have recently been published. The author distinguishes between inertia, confrontation, and cooperation scenarios and examines their prerequisites and possible consequences. The scenarios are developed based on an analysis of geographic, economic, and political factors. The decisive factor is a state-controlled foreign policy, which is affected by the international situation as well as relations between the state and the external resources exploited by political elites. The paper contributes to the general debate about the factors of political development and the role of political elites in it. The author pr ovides additional material for analysing possible developments in the domestic policies of the Baltic States in view of external factors.

FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serhiy Nozhenko

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

Project SAFE. Update of the SFR-1 safety assessment. Phase 1. Appendix A2: Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M.

1998-01-01

This appendix gives a short description of the scenario methodology adopted in the previous safety assessment of SFR. Since then new methodologies for developing structured descriptions of how processes and interactions between processes affect the evolution of a repository system. Two such methods are briefly described. These methods are very similar, but they differ in the way the system is graphically structured. One of the methods is based on Process Influence Diagrams, PID, and the other on Interaction matrices. It is proposed that the method based on Interaction matrices is used for the scenario work in project SAFE. The main reason for this is that the method already has been applied by SKB, which means that it will be possible to use already existing procedures and documentation systems. The proposed procedure involves the development of Interaction matrices for a defined Reference scenario and the use of these matrices to illustrate the effect of different Scenario initiating FEPs. The proposed procedure is described in this appendix

Collection and Processing of Data from Wrist Wearable Devices in Heterogeneous and Multiple-User Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco de Arriba-Pérez

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Over recent years, we have witnessed the development of mobile and wearable technologies to collect data from human vital signs and activities. Nowadays, wrist wearables including sensors (e.g., heart rate, accelerometer, pedometer that provide valuable data are common in market. We are working on the analytic exploitation of this kind of data towards the support of learners and teachers in educational contexts. More precisely, sleep and stress indicators are defined to assist teachers and learners on the regulation of their activities. During this development, we have identified interoperability challenges related to the collection and processing of data from wearable devices. Different vendors adopt specific approaches about the way data can be collected from wearables into third-party systems. This hinders such developments as the one that we are carrying out. This paper contributes to identifying key interoperability issues in this kind of scenario and proposes guidelines to solve them. Taking into account these topics, this work is situated in the context of the standardization activities being carried out in the Internet of Things and Machine to Machine domains.

Collection and Processing of Data from Wrist Wearable Devices in Heterogeneous and Multiple-User Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

de Arriba-Pérez, Francisco; Caeiro-Rodríguez, Manuel; Santos-Gago, Juan M

2016-09-21

Over recent years, we have witnessed the development of mobile and wearable technologies to collect data from human vital signs and activities. Nowadays, wrist wearables including sensors (e.g., heart rate, accelerometer, pedometer) that provide valuable data are common in market. We are working on the analytic exploitation of this kind of data towards the support of learners and teachers in educational contexts. More precisely, sleep and stress indicators are defined to assist teachers and learners on the regulation of their activities. During this development, we have identified interoperability challenges related to the collection and processing of data from wearable devices. Different vendors adopt specific approaches about the way data can be collected from wearables into third-party systems. This hinders such developments as the one that we are carrying out. This paper contributes to identifying key interoperability issues in this kind of scenario and proposes guidelines to solve them. Taking into account these topics, this work is situated in the context of the standardization activities being carried out in the Internet of Things and Machine to Machine domains.

Learning Through Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Balarezo, Jose

level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

Mars base buildup scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blacic, J.D.

1985-01-01

Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

Development of RF Tools and Scenarios for ITER on JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noterdaeme, J.M.; Bobkov, V.; Mantsinen, M.; Salmi, A.; Santala, M.; Rantamaki, K.; Ekedahl, A.; Eriksson, L.G.; Lamalle, P.U.; Lyssoivan, A.; Van Eester, A.D.; Mailloux, J.; Monakhov, I.; Sharapov, S.; Mayoral, M.L.; Meo, F.

2005-01-01

The improvement of lower hybrid (LH) coupling with local puffing of D 2 gas, which made operation at ITER relevant distances (10 cm) and with ELMs (edge localized modes) a reality, has been extended to ITER- like plasma shapes with higher triangularity. With ICRF(ion cyclotron resonance frequency), we developed 4 tools such as -1) localized direct electron heating using the He 3 mode conversion scenario for electron heat transport studies, -2) the production of He 4 ions with energies in the MeV range by 3 ω c acceleration of beam injected ions at 120 keV to investigate Alfven instabilities and test α diagnostics, -3) the stabilisation and destabilization of sawteeth and -4) ICRF as as a wall conditioning. Several ITER relevant scenarios were tested. The (He 3 )H minority heating scenario, considered for the non-activated start-up phase of ITER, produces at very low concentration energetic He 3 which heat the electrons indirectly. For n(He 3 )/n e > 2%, the scenario is transformed to a mode conversion scenario where the electrons are heated directly. The (D)H minority heating is not accessible as the concentration of C 6+ dominates the wave propagation and always leads to a mode conversion. The minority heating of T in D is very effective heating for ions and producing neutrons. New results were obtained in several areas of ICRF physics. Experimental evidence confirmed the theoretical prediction that, as the Larmor radius increases beyond 0.5 times the perpendicular wavelength of the wave, the second harmonic acceleration of the ions decreases to very small levels. An exotic fusion reaction (pT) must be taken into account when evaluating neutron rates. The contribution of fast particles accelerated by ICRF to the plasma rotation was clearly identified, but it is only part of an underlying, and not yet understood, co-current plasma rotation. Progress was made in the physics of ELMs while their effect on the ICRF coupling could be minimized with the conjugate

Politics scenarios for climatic protection V - On the way to structural change, scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions up to the year 2030; Politikszenarien V - auf dem Weg zum Strukturwandel, Treibhausgas-Emissionsszenarien bis zum Jahr 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, P.; Matthes, F.C. (eds.)

2010-07-01

For the project 'Politics scenarios for climate protection V' (Politics scenarios V), two scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions in Germany for the period 2005 to 2030 were developed: (a) a 'With-Measure-scenario'; (b) a 'structural-change-scenario'. In the context of the scenario analyses a detailed evaluation of the respective climatic political and energy political measures is performed regarding to their effects on the development of the greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Methane, laughing gas, halogenated hydrocarbons, perfluorinated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride are considered for the source sectors energy, industrial processes, product application, agriculture and waste management are considered. Sector-specific model analyses are used in the development of the scenarios. These model analyses are summarized to consistent and complete quantity structure for the power requirement and the emissions of greenhouse gases. Specific investigations are accomplished for the areas space heating and warm water, electrical devices, industry, trade and services, traffic, power generation from renewable energies and the fossil power generation as well as for the volatile emissions of the energy sector, process-related emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides. For other selected sources (emissions of halogenated hydrocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride as well as the agriculture) results of other investigations were taken over and processed. In the case of an integration and determination of emissions a system integration module and an emission computation model are used in order to consolidate the detailed sector results to a quantity structure. This quantity structure completely is compatible to the German greenhouse gas inventories (according to the conditions of the inventory report 2008).

Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freynet David

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

Process Performance Measurement for E-Government: A Case Scenario from the German Ministerial Administration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliver Thomas

2007-06-01

Full Text Available During the last years, the realization of the E-Government driven benefits was in the center of interest at various public administrations. The article at hand outlines a process driven approach for the evaluation of technology-based performance impacts. From the German perspective, existing concepts of performance evaluation are concretized for the case scenario of the German Plan Approval Procedures.

Scenarios for the development of the electricity economy in Continental Europe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gutschi, Christoph; Stigler, Heinz; Jagl, Alexander; Nischler, Gernot; Huber, Christoph; Bachhiesl, Udo

2010-09-15

ATLANTIS is a multi purpose scenario model for the investigation of effects in the electricity system of continental Europe. The model consists of a physical part for the simulation of power generation and load flow as well as an economic part for the investigation of power markets and the business development of generation and supply companies.

Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

2017-01-01

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

2007-02-01

In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

2010-12-01

Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

1993-12-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily through the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Houser, G.M.

1990-07-01

In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

Exposure scenarios for workers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

2007-01-01

The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

Proposal for the classification of scenarios for deep geological repositories in probability classes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beuth, Thomas

2013-03-01

The provided report was elaborated in the framework of the project 3609R03210 ''Research and Development for Proof of the long-term Safety of Deep Geological Repositories''. It contains a proposal for a methodology that enables the assignment of developed scenarios in the frame of Safety Cases to defined probability classes. The assignment takes place indirectly through the categorization of the defining relevant factors (so-called FEP: Features, Events and Processes) of the respective scenarios also in probability classes. Therefore, decision trees and criteria were developed for the categorization of relevant factors in classes. Besides the description of the methodology another focal point of the work was the application of the method taking into account a defined scenario. By means of the scenario the different steps of the method and the decision criteria were documented, respectively. In addition, potential subjective influences along the path of decisions regarding the assignment of scenarios in probability classes were identified.

Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rika Harini Irawati

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

Scenarios constructed for basaltic igneous activity at Yucca Mountain and vicinity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.; Dockery, H.; Barnard, R.; Valentine, G.; Crowe, B.

1993-08-01

Basaltic volcanism has been identified as a possible future event initiating a release of radionuclides from a potential repository at the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository site. The performance assessment method set forth in the Site Characterization Plan (DOE, 1988) requires that a set of scenarios encompassing all significant radionuclide release paths to the accessible environment be described. This report attempts to catalogue the details of the interactions between the features and processes produced by basaltic volcanism in the presence of the presumed groundwater flow system and a repository structure, the engineered barrier system (EBS), and waste. This catalogue is developed in the form of scenarios. We define a scenario as a well-posed problem, starting from an initiating event or process and proceeding through a logically connected and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes (FEPs) to the release of contaminants

Development and application of a processing model for the Irish dairy industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Geary, U; Lopez-Villalobos, N; Garrick, D J; Shalloo, L

2010-11-01

A processing-sector model was developed that simulates (i) milk collection, (ii) standardization, and (iii) product manufacture. The model estimates the product yield, net milk value, and component values of milk based on milk quantity, composition, product portfolio, and product values. Product specifications of cheese, butter, skim and whole milk powders, liquid milk, and casein are met through milk separation followed by reconstitution in appropriate proportions. Excess cream or skim milk are used in other product manufacture. Volume-related costs, including milk collection, standardization, and processing costs, and product-related costs, including processing costs per tonne, packaging, storage, distribution, and marketing, are quantified. Operating costs, incurred irrespective of milk received and processing activities, are included in the model on a fixed-rate basis. The net milk value is estimated as sale value less total costs. The component values of fat and protein were estimated from net milk value using the marginal rate of technical substitution. Two product portfolio scenarios were examined: scenario 1 was representative of the Irish product mix in 2000, in which 27, 39, 13, and 21% of the milk pool was processed into cheese (€ 3,291.33/t), butter (€ 2,766.33/t), whole milk powder (€ 2,453.33/t), and skim milk powder (€ 2,017.00/t), respectively, and scenario 2 was representative of the 2008 product mix, in which 43, 30, 14, and 13% was processed into cheese, butter, whole milk powder, and skim milk powder, respectively, and sold at the same market prices. Within both scenarios 3 milk compositions were considered, which were representative of (i) typical Irish Holstein-Friesian, (ii) Jersey, and (iii) the New Zealand strain of Holstein-Friesian, each of which had differing milk constituents. The effect each milk composition had on product yield, processing costs, total revenue, component values of milk, and the net value of milk was examined

Speech reception with different bilateral directional processing schemes: Influence of binaural hearing, audiometric asymmetry, and acoustic scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Neher, Tobias; Wagener, Kirsten C; Latzel, Matthias

2017-09-01

Hearing aid (HA) users can differ markedly in their benefit from directional processing (or beamforming) algorithms. The current study therefore investigated candidacy for different bilateral directional processing schemes. Groups of elderly listeners with symmetric (N = 20) or asymmetric (N = 19) hearing thresholds for frequencies below 2 kHz, a large spread in the binaural intelligibility level difference (BILD), and no difference in age, overall degree of hearing loss, or performance on a measure of selective attention took part. Aided speech reception was measured using virtual acoustics together with a simulation of a linked pair of completely occluding behind-the-ear HAs. Five processing schemes and three acoustic scenarios were used. The processing schemes differed in the tradeoff between signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) improvement and binaural cue preservation. The acoustic scenarios consisted of a frontal target talker presented against two speech maskers from ±60° azimuth or spatially diffuse cafeteria noise. For both groups, a significant interaction between BILD, processing scheme, and acoustic scenario was found. This interaction implied that, in situations with lateral speech maskers, HA users with BILDs larger than about 2 dB profited more from preserved low-frequency binaural cues than from greater SNR improvement, whereas for smaller BILDs the opposite was true. Audiometric asymmetry reduced the influence of binaural hearing. In spatially diffuse noise, the maximal SNR improvement was generally beneficial. N 0 S π detection performance at 500 Hz predicted the benefit from low-frequency binaural cues. Together, these findings provide a basis for adapting bilateral directional processing to individual and situational influences. Further research is needed to investigate their generalizability to more realistic HA conditions (e.g., with low-frequency vent-transmitted sound). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2011-11-15

In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

District-Scale Green Infrastructure Scenarios for the Zidell Development Site, City of Portland

Science.gov (United States)

The report outlines technical assistance to develop green infrastructure scenarios for the Zidell Yards site consistent with the constraints of a recently remediated brownfield that can be implemented within a 15-20 year time horizon.

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

1995-01-01

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

Scenarios constructed for nominal flow in the presence of a repository at Yucca Mountain and vicinity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Hunter, R.L.; Dunn, E.; Flint, A.

1995-03-01

Scenario development for the system performance assessment of the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project defines a scenario as a well-posed problem connecting an initiating event with radionuclide release to the accessible environment by a logical and physically possible combination or sequence of features, events, and processes. Drawing on the advice and assistance of the Project's principal investigators (PIs), a collection of release scenarios initiated by the nominal ground-water flow occurring in the vicinity of the potential Yucca Mountain high-level-waste repository is developed and described in pictorial form. This collection of scenarios is intended to provide a framework to assist PIs in recognizing essential field and calculational analyses, to assist performance assessment in providing guidance to site characterization, and to continue the effort to exhaustively identify all features, events, and processes important to releases. It represents a step in the iterative process of identifying what details of the potential site are important for safe disposal. 67 refs

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

2015-01-01

Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

2009-01-01

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

ARAMIS project: A comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cecile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

2006-01-01

In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term 'major accidents' must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called 'risk matrix', crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage

Probabilistic construction of inflow scenarios at a reservoir; Construction probabiliste de scenarios d'apports a un reservoir

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seidou, O.; Robert, B.; Marche, C.; Rousselle, J. [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Departement des Genies Civil, Geologique et des Mines, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Lefebvre, M. [Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal, Departement de Mathematiques et de Genie Industriel, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

2004-02-01

Development of risk indicators to aid in decisions affecting the operation of hydric systems is described. The significant part of the risk affecting hydric systems is the uncertainty surrounding future inflows. A method to construct inflow scenarios starting from an arbitrary date 'y' of the year is developed using a Markovian process which also has been used to model short-term uncertainty in stream flow. The text is divided in five parts: (1) methodology, (2) terminology, (3) theory, (4) application, and (5) results. The scenarios are built to reproduce the statistical behaviour of the river or reservoir and have the shape of an event tree whose structure is defined by the user before application of the method. Application of the method is illustrated by two examples, one involving the Harricana River, the other the Cabonga Reservoir, both situated in the province of Quebec. 11 refs., 4 tabs., 4 figs.

Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional activity regardless of the performed function and position. The article specifies the following roles in the offered classification: partner, expert, communicator, consultant and curator. It presents results of a sociological study, which demonstrate the degree of co-ordination of opinions of employers and practicing personnel managers with respect to performance of roles in the sphere by their professional activity by the latter. This helps to identify a number of problems, which include the problem of availability of reserves of increase of the level of competence of personnel management specialists. This issue, in its turn, closely deals with main aspects of formation of competitiveness of the said specialists, since the degree of formation of competences is the key condition of formation of competitive advantages.

Development of internal transport barrier scenarios at ITER-relevant high triangularity in JET

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimini, F.G.; Becoulet, M.; Giovannozzi, E.; Lomas, P.J.; Tudisco, O.; Alper, B.; Crisanti, F.; Baar, M. de; Luna, E. de La; Vries, P. de; Ekedahl, A.; Hawkes, N.; Huysmans, G.; Litaudon, X.; Parail, V.; Saibene, G.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zastrow, K.D.

2005-01-01

The development of scenarios characterized by H-mode confinement and internal transport barriers (ITBs) in high triangularity, δ ∼ 0.4-0.5, discharges is of particular interest for ITER advanced tokamak operation. Previous JET experiments have shown that high triangularity favours H-modes which are ELM-free or develop type I edge localized mode (ELM) activity, which inhibits long lasting ITBs. The recent experiments reported here concentrate on integrated optimization of edge and core conditions. The stability of the edge pedestal was controlled using gas injection, deuterium or light impurities, and plasma current ramps. Both methods yield more ITB-friendly edge pedestal conditions, varying from small type I to type III ELMs and, in extreme cases, resulting in L-mode. In parallel, the conditions for triggering and sustaining ITBs encompassing a large proportion of the plasma volume (outer ITBs) were optimized, as opposed to less performing ITBs located closer to the plasma centre (inner ITB). These plasmas have deeply reversed target current profiles with q min ∼ 3 and a narrow inner ITB, located typically at a small normalized radius ρ E , at q 95 = 7.5, H 89 β N ∼ 3.5-4 and ∼60% of the Greenwald density limit. In summary, a high triangularity scenario has been developed, which combines the desirable characteristics of controlled edge, long lasting wide ITBs and high performance at density higher than the low triangularity JET scenarios

The role of the state in sport for development: A South African scenario

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The role of the state in sport for development: A South African scenario. ... African Journal for Physical Activity and Health Sciences ... rendered the triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data in terms of 470 interviews; 479 case studies; ...

Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

2000-01-01

The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

Structural change in Europe's gas markets: three scenarios for the development of the European gas market to 2020

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellis, A.; Bowitz, E.; Roland, K.

2000-01-01

Against the background of the European Union's Gas Directive, and the emergence of new players and markets in Europe's gas sector, this paper explores how company actions could shape the future for the gas industry. Starting with an examination of company strategies this paper develops three scenarios for the future: a 'Gradual Transformation' scenario where a single European gas market develops that is essentially oligopolistic in nature; a 'Vertical Integration' scenario, where upstream and downstream gas companies merge to form a vertically integrated gas supplier; and a 'Pull the Plug' scenario, where the current market structure decomposes into a competitive market. These scenarios are examined in terms of their impact on gas prices, demand and the distribution of gas rent along the supply chain. The paper highlights the fact that the EU's gas Directive is not sufficient for the introduction of competition into Europe's gas markets, but that company actions will be the key determinant, and they may favour alternative market structures. (Author)

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

Time Processing Impairments in Preschoolers at Risk of Developing Difficulties in Mathematics

Science.gov (United States)

Tobia, Valentina; Rinaldi, Luca; Marzocchi, Gian Marco

2018-01-01

The occurrence of time processing problems in individuals with Development Dyscalculia (DD) has favored the view of a general magnitude system devoted to both numerical and temporal information. Yet, this scenario has been partially challenged by studies indicating that time difficulties can be attributed to poor calculation or counting skills,…

Innovative method of RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klevas, Valentinas; Biekša, Kestutis; Murauskaitė, Lina

2014-01-01

Scarcity or abundance of energy resources usually depends on physical and geographical conditions in the region. However, the energy flow in the region also depends on the efficient use of energy resources, the consumption rate of energy and the possibility to use local renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Production, distribution and the use of energy resources in the region are the challenges for central and local government, business and social service, customers and other stakeholders. Development of regional energy economy should be optimized according to the available energy flow in the region using a network system analysis method, which provides solutions for developing sustainable energy economy models. The network system analysis method enables to optimize the use of local and renewable resources at the regional level and reveals available local energy resources. An efficient use of available regional resources and the use of renewable energy sources (RES) should be the main goals for the development of regional energy system. RES can compete with traditional fossil fuel with the condition that all hidden aspects are revealed. The network system analysis method enables to indicate energy flows in the region as well as indicate pros and cons of using renewable energy technologies. - Highlights: • RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios is done. • Innovative process network system (PNS) analysis method is used. • PNS method is used to optimize the use of local and renewable resources. • Analysis of energy flow in region using PNS method is done

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

2013-01-01

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year

Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Selin, Cynthia Lea

2006-01-01

formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

Scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

2015-01-01

We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

Shell energy scenarios to 2050

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

Science.gov (United States)

Musulin, Mike, II

The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

Greenhouse Gas reduction for scenarios of power sources development of the Republic of Moldova

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Comendant I.

2010-04-01

Full Text Available For the new power market conditions, Moldova power sources development options up to 2033 are evaluated, and for the six scenarios selected the greenhouse gas reduction impact is determined.

Scenario development during commissioning operations on the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade

Science.gov (United States)

Battaglia, D. J.; Boyer, M. D.; Gerhardt, S.; Mueller, D.; Myers, C. E.; Guttenfelder, W.; Menard, J. E.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Scotti, F.; Bedoya, F.; Bell, R. E.; Berkery, J. W.; Diallo, A.; Ferraro, N.; Kaye, S. M.; Jaworski, M. A.; LeBlanc, B. P.; Ono, M.; Park, J.-K.; Podesta, M.; Raman, R.; Soukhanovskii, V.; NSTX-U Research, the; Operations; Engineering Team

2018-04-01

The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) will advance the physics basis required for achieving steady-state, high-beta, and high-confinement conditions in a tokamak by accessing high toroidal fields (1 T) and plasma currents (1.0-2.0 MA) in a low aspect ratio geometry (A  =  1.6-1.8) with flexible auxiliary heating systems (12 MW NBI, 6 MW HHFW). This paper describes the progress in the development of L- and H-mode discharge scenarios and the commissioning of operational tools in the first ten weeks of operation that enable the scientific mission of NSTX-U. Vacuum field calculations completed prior to operations supported the rapid development and optimization of inductive breakdown at different values of ohmic solenoid current. The toroidal magnetic field (B T0  =  0.65 T) exceeded the maximum values achieved on NSTX and novel long-pulse L-mode discharges with regular sawtooth activity exceeded the longest pulses produced on NSTX (t pulse  >  1.8 s). The increased flux of the central solenoid facilitated the development of stationary L-mode discharges over a range of density and plasma current (I p). H-mode discharges achieved similar levels of stored energy, confinement (H98y,2  >  1) and stability (β N/β N-nowall  >  1) compared to NSTX discharges for I p  ⩽  1 MA. High-performance H-mode scenarios require an L-H transition early in the I p ramp-up phase in order to obtain low internal inductance (l i) throughout the discharge, which is conducive to maintaining vertical stability at high elongation (κ  >  2.2) and achieving long periods of MHD quiescent operations. The rapid progress in developing L- and H-mode scenarios in support of the scientific program was enabled by advances in real-time plasma control, efficient error field identification and correction, effective conditioning of the graphite wall and excellent diagnostic availability.

Development of safety assessment method for human intrusion scenario in Japan. Part 1. Drilling scenario database for safety assessment of geological disposal (Contract research)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagasawa, Hirokazu; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo; Sasaki, Toshihisa

2010-11-01

In deep geological disposal or intermediate depth disposal, human intrusion, i.e. accidental excavation or drilling into the disposal site, may make a direct or an indirect effect on the disposal system. Safety assessment method for the human intrusion scenario, that is, the evaluation code of radiological effect from the human intrusion and the data to examine the reduction of the probability of the human intrusion occurring, is essential for the future safety regulation. Assuming that drilling action into the disposal site leads to the human proximity to the radioactive waste or the damage to the barrier system (drilling scenario), we have collected both the data on borehole drilling implemented in Japan and information on actual situation of drilling activities. Based on the data and information, we provide concrete exposure scenarios associated with borehole drilling in the vicinity of the repository and model for estimating the frequency on borehole reaching the depth of repository. The frequency is characterized with the relation to objective of excavation, geographical features, and region in Japan etc. We have developed an assembly of the information mentioned above as database, including the model parameters used in the code to assess radiation dose for drilling scenario. (author)

A comparative study on the clinical decision-making processes of nurse practitioners vs. medical doctors using scenarios in a secondary care environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Stephen; Moorley, Calvin; Barratt, Julian

2017-05-01

To investigate the decision-making skills of secondary care nurse practitioners compared with those of medical doctors. A literature review was conducted, searching for articles published from 1990 - 2012. The review found that nurse practitioners are key to the modernization of the National Health Service. Studies have shown that compared with doctors, nurse practitioners can be efficient and cost-effective in consultations. Qualitative research design. The information processing theory and think aloud approach were used to understand the cognitive processes of 10 participants (5 doctors and 5 nurse practitioners). One nurse practitioner was paired with one doctor from the same speciality and they were compared using a structured scenario-based interview. To ensure that all critical and relevant cues were covered by the individual participating in the scenario, a reference model was used to measure the degree of successful diagnosis, management and treatment. This study was conducted from May 2012 - January 2013. The data were processed for 5 months, from July to November 2012. The two groups of practitioners differed in the number of cue acquisitions obtained in the scenarios. In our study, nurse practitioners took 3 minutes longer to complete the scenarios. This study suggests that nurse practitioner consultations are comparable to those of medical doctors in a secondary care environment in terms of correct diagnoses and therapeutic treatments. The information processing theory highlighted that both groups of professionals had similar models for decision-making processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reuse of conditionally released steel; proposals and evaluation of processes for manufacturing of steel elements and processes for construction of selected scenarios - 59130

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bezak, Peter; Ondra, Frantisek; Hajkova, Eva; Necas, Vladimir

2012-01-01

The project include systematic scenarios analysis of conditionally released materials from the decommissioning of nuclear installations and the creation of new knowledge in this field, which will be used for implementing projects for reuse of these materials. New knowledge includes data about materials from the decommissioning (types of materials and radiological data on the basis of analysis of various scenarios). Scenarios contain information about conditionally released materials, data of the external exposure of personnel who will assemble those structures and who will be use the constructions up to the target scenario. Scenarios assume guarantee that the final products will be placed on the current position for a very long period from 50 to 100 years. The paper presents the review of activities for manufacturing of various steel construction elements made of conditionally released steels and activities for realisation of selected scenarios for reuse of construction elements. The ingots after melting of decommissioned radioactive steel materials are as the starting material for manufacturing of steel components. Ingots from the controlled area will be melted into induction furnace and the mixture of liquid steel will be alloyed for achieve of required chemical parameters. Typical steel products suitable for established scenarios are steel rebar of concrete, steel profiles of various forms, railway rails and rolled steel sheets. Target scenarios include an analysis of staff exposure during installation of steel constructions as well as exposure of individual from critical groups of population during their exploitation. The various scenarios, provided within the scope of the CONRELMAT project are focused at the systematic analysis of the use of conditionally released steel from decommissioning of nuclear facilities. Scenarios are focused on research and development of model situations in constructions in the areas of transport, civil constructions, industry and

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

[Prediction and simulation of urban area expansion in Pearl River Delta Region under the RCPs climate scenarios].

Science.gov (United States)

Jiang, Oun-ou; Deng, Xiang-zheng; Ke, Xin-li; Zhao, Chun-hong; Zhang, Wei

2014-12-01

The sizes and number of cities in China are increasing rapidly and complicated changes of urban land use system have occurred as the social economy develops rapidly. This study took the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delta Region as the study area to explore the driving mechanism of dynamic changes of urban area in the urbanization process under the joint influence of natural environment and social economic conditions. Then the CA (cellular automata) model was used to predict and simulate the urban area changes until 2030 under the designed scenarios of planning and RCPs (representative concentration pathways). The results indicated that urbanization was mainly driven by the non-agricultural population growth and social-economic development, and the transportation had played a fundamental role in the whole process, while the areas with high elevation or steep slope restricted the urbanization. Besides, the urban area would keep an expanding trend regardless of the scenarios, however, the expanding speed would slow down with different inflection points under different scenarios. The urban expansion speed increased in the sequence of the planning scenario, MESSAGE scenario and AIM scenario, and that under the MESSAGE climate scenario was more consistent with the current urban development trend. In addition, the urban expansion would mainly concentrate in regions with the relatively high urbanization level, e.g., Guangzhou, Dongguan, Foshan, Shenzhen, Zhanjiang and Chaoshan.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

Science.gov (United States)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

2017-01-01

We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

Scenarios for the hierarchical evaluation of the global sustainability of electric generator plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roldan A, M.C.; Martinez F, M.

2007-01-01

The AHP multi criteria method was applied (Analytic Hierarchy Process-Analytic process of Hierarchization) to evaluate the sustainability in the whole life cycle of the electricity generation technologies (hydroelectric, carboelectric, thermoelectric natural fuel oil, natural gas thermoelectric, geothermal, nucleo electric, wind electric, photo thermic and photovoltaic) with the purpose of offering an useful method in the taking of decisions to impel the sustainable development. Eight scenarios are analyzed. The results in most of the scenarios reflect the benefit of the renewable energy: the hydroelectric energy, photo thermic and wind driven its are those more sustainable. To reach the sustainable development in Mexico, the energy politicians should be more near to the use of the renewable energy. (Author)

Using scenarios for dissemination - Experiences from the IMS GLOBEMEN project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ollus, Martin; Hartel, Ingo; Tølle, Martin

2002-01-01

due to the complexities of the interdisciplinary field addressed. As an instrument for communication to the non-specialist public the IMS GLOBEMEN project produces a web-based scenario as part of its dissemination activities. It is aimed at giving a practical overview of specific challenges...... in the field and contributions from the project. Based upon a generic Virtual Enterprise Reference Architecture (called VERA) the partners in the project have developed a set of protypes to be implemeted in their own business processes. The results will be illutrated in one integrated scenario....

Assessment of post closure radioactive safety for the Korean reference disposal system: development of scenarios and quantitative assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, C. H.; Hwang, Y. S.; Lee, Y. M.

2005-01-01

The total system performance assessment (TSPA) on the Korean reference disposal system has been performed for different types of scenarios. Firstly two reference scenarios, the natural discharge and well ones are developed assessed. The natural discharge scenario assumes that a radionuclide is released from a waste container with an average lifetime of 1,000 years by intruding groundwater to a biosphere through a bentonite buffer and a natural barrier composed of a fractured porous rock and a major water conducting feature (MWCF). The well scenario describes that a radionuclide passing through a buffer enters a fractured rock which is intersected with a drinking well. Two scenarios are named as R1 and R2 respectively. The third scenario is for the initial waste container failure case. A waste container is apt to have initial defects during manufacturing and transportation to a deposition hole. The probability function of the ratio of waste container failure is assumed based on the engineering sense. The rest of waste containers are assumed to have full function of isolation of hazardous nuclides during the lifetime. This initial container failure scenario (ICF) has two different variations: one with a lifetime of 1,000 years ana the other with 10,000 years. Two variations are assessed for two different biosphere, natural discharge and well. The forth one is to assess the impact of excavation disturbed zones. Deposition tunnels are excavated by tunnel boring machine (TBM) or controlled blast (CB). The disturbed zone in assumed to be 30 cm and 1 meter for TBN and CB respectively. Six cases are developed for the EDZ scenarios considering all possible combination of changes in permeability a fracture aperture, and a porosity of a fractured rock. The fifth scenario stipulates the change of long term climate (LTC). The ice age assumed to be prevailed again after a few tens of thousand years. The advent of the ice age alters groundwater composition, pathways, and most

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hulme, Mike; Dessai, Suraje

2008-01-01

Scenarios may be understood as products and/or processes. Viewing scenario exercises as productive tends to emphasize their tangibility: scenario products may acquire value unrelated to the processes of their creation. Viewing scenario exercises as procedural tends to emphasize their modes of formation: the process of constructing scenarios may have benefits irrespective of the value of ensuing products. These two framings yield different expectations about how one might evaluate the 'success' or otherwise of scenario exercises. We illustrate three approaches to evaluating the success or otherwise of scenarios using the example of the series of national UK climate scenarios published between 1991 and 2002. These are: predictive success (has the future turned out as envisaged?), decision success (have 'good' decisions subsequently been made?) and learning success (have scenarios proved engaging and enabled learning?). We reflect on the different ways the 'success' of national climate scenarios might be evaluated and on the relationship between the productive and procedural dimensions of scenario exercises.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

2017-01-01

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Energy scenarios for the 21. century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauerman, V.

2002-01-01

The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alison Rothwell

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

2017-11-01

Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

2001-01-01

What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

Global Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schrattenholzer, L.

2005-01-01

-climate policy scenarios; Emissions mitigation scenarios; and Sustainable-development scenarios. It seems useful to be explicit about the definition of s ustainable development . At IIASA-ECS we use the non-quantitative definition coined originally by the Brundtland Commission: 'development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs' (WCED, 1987) as a point of departure. We then refer to sustainable-development scenarios (1) if economic growth (GDP/capita) is sustained throughout the whole time horizon, (2) if socio-economic equity (GDP/capita) among regions is enhanced significantly over the next century, (3) if reserves(resources)-to-production ratios do not decline over the scenario's time horizon, and if (4) carbon emissions at the end of the century are roughly at or below today's emissions level. This review includes all scenarios that IIASA-ECS contributed to the database of greenhouse gas emission scenarios, which was developed as part of the process of compiling the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES, 2000; Morita and Lee, 1998; www-cger.nies.go.jp/cger-e/db/ipcc.html) and classifies them into these three groups.(author)

Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

2016-01-01

Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

2017-01-01

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentham, Jeremy

2014-01-01

Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

2003-01-01

In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

Applying the global RCP-SSP-SPA scenario framework at sub-national scale: A multi-scale and participatory scenario approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kebede, Abiy S; Nicholls, Robert J; Allan, Andrew; Arto, Iñaki; Cazcarro, Ignacio; Fernandes, Jose A; Hill, Chris T; Hutton, Craig W; Kay, Susan; Lázár, Attila N; Macadam, Ian; Palmer, Matthew; Suckall, Natalie; Tompkins, Emma L; Vincent, Katharine; Whitehead, Paul W

2018-09-01

To better anticipate potential impacts of climate change, diverse information about the future is required, including climate, society and economy, and adaptation and mitigation. To address this need, a global RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways), and SPA (Shared climate Policy Assumptions) (RCP-SSP-SPA) scenario framework has been developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5). Application of this full global framework at sub-national scales introduces two key challenges: added complexity in capturing the multiple dimensions of change, and issues of scale. Perhaps for this reason, there are few such applications of this new framework. Here, we present an integrated multi-scale hybrid scenario approach that combines both expert-based and participatory methods. The framework has been developed and applied within the DECCMA 1 project with the purpose of exploring migration and adaptation in three deltas across West Africa and South Asia: (i) the Volta delta (Ghana), (ii) the Mahanadi delta (India), and (iii) the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta (Bangladesh/India). Using a climate scenario that encompasses a wide range of impacts (RCP8.5) combined with three SSP-based socio-economic scenarios (SSP2, SSP3, SSP5), we generate highly divergent and challenging scenario contexts across multiple scales against which robustness of the human and natural systems within the deltas are tested. In addition, we consider four distinct adaptation policy trajectories: Minimum intervention, Economic capacity expansion, System efficiency enhancement, and System restructuring, which describe alternative future bundles of adaptation actions/measures under different socio-economic trajectories. The paper highlights the importance of multi-scale (combined top-down and bottom-up) and participatory (joint expert-stakeholder) scenario methods for addressing uncertainty in adaptation decision

Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

2006-01-01

Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

A scenario for interstellar exploration and its financing

CERN Document Server

Bignami, Giovanni F

2013-01-01

This book develops a credible scenario for interstellar exploration and colonization. In so doing, it examines: • the present situation and prospects for interstellar exploration technologies; • where to go: the search for habitable planets; • the motivations for space travel and colonization; • the financial mechanisms required to fund such enterprises. The final section of the book analyzes the uncertainties surrounding the presented scenario. The purpose of building a scenario is not only to pinpoint future events but also to highlight the uncertainties that may propel the future in different directions. Interstellar travel and colonization requires a civilization in which human beings see themselves as inhabitants of a single planet and in which global governance of these processes is conducted on a cooperative basis. The key question is, then, whether our present civilization is ready for such an endeavor, reflecting the fact that the critical uncertainties are political and cultural in nature. I...

Biodiversity scenarios neglect future land-use changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Titeux, Nicolas; Henle, Klaus; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Regos, Adrián; Geijzendorffer, Ilse R; Cramer, Wolfgang; Verburg, Peter H; Brotons, Lluís

2016-07-01

Efficient management of biodiversity requires a forward-looking approach based on scenarios that explore biodiversity changes under future environmental conditions. A number of ecological models have been proposed over the last decades to develop these biodiversity scenarios. Novel modelling approaches with strong theoretical foundation now offer the possibility to integrate key ecological and evolutionary processes that shape species distribution and community structure. Although biodiversity is affected by multiple threats, most studies addressing the effects of future environmental changes on biodiversity focus on a single threat only. We examined the studies published during the last 25 years that developed scenarios to predict future biodiversity changes based on climate, land-use and land-cover change projections. We found that biodiversity scenarios mostly focus on the future impacts of climate change and largely neglect changes in land use and land cover. The emphasis on climate change impacts has increased over time and has now reached a maximum. Yet, the direct destruction and degradation of habitats through land-use and land-cover changes are among the most significant and immediate threats to biodiversity. We argue that the current state of integration between ecological and land system sciences is leading to biased estimation of actual risks and therefore constrains the implementation of forward-looking policy responses to biodiversity decline. We suggest research directions at the crossroads between ecological and environmental sciences to face the challenge of developing interoperable and plausible projections of future environmental changes and to anticipate the full range of their potential impacts on biodiversity. An intergovernmental platform is needed to stimulate such collaborative research efforts and to emphasize the societal and political relevance of taking up this challenge. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

2015-01-01

Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

A Sectoral Micro-Economic Approach to Scenario Selection and Development: The Case of the Greek Power Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexandros Flamos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Generating policy-relevant scenarios is instrumental for understanding and developing policy measures. These are especially relevant to the power sector. Practitioners have been working on policy-relevant scenarios for the ex-ante assessment of policy measures in a meaningful way for end-users related to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper presents a method for generating such policy relevant scenarios by focusing on the actor-contingent elements of the scenarios, i.e., the developments that are within the control of system actors to change or bring about. Several scenario techniques focusing on systematic-formalized or quantitative approaches have been published on this front over the past few years. Here, we introduce a methodology that is best suited for the assessment of the expected effect of different policy measures on the involved stakeholders’ behavior as well as for the analysis of the interactions between different policy measures as reflected on their impact on the strength and direction of the provided incentives. The applicability of our methodology is demonstrated for the case of the Greek power market. It was further evaluated in view of the challenges related to the issues of generation capacity adequacy and increased fiscal deficit. The strategic implications of the proposed approach concern the demonstration of the benefits from adopting a policy assessment methodology that focus on stakeholder expectations and interactions.

Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klemenz, W.

1993-09-01

The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

Methodology implementation for multi objective optimisation for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freynet, David

2016-01-01

The issue of the evolution French nuclear fleet can be considered through the study of nuclear transition scenarios. These studies are of paramount importance as their results can greatly affect the decision making process, given that they take into account industrial concerns, investments, time, and nuclear system complexity. Such studies can be performed with the COSI code (developed at the CEA/DEN), which enables the calculation of matter inventories and fluxes across the fuel cycle (nuclear reactors and associated facilities), especially when coupled with the CESAR depletion code. The studies today performed with COSI require the definition of the various scenarios' input parameters, in order to fulfil different objectives such as minimising natural uranium consumption, waste production and so on. These parameters concern the quantities and the scheduling of spent fuel destined for reprocessing, and the number, the type and the commissioning dates of deployed reactors.This work aims to develop, validate and apply an optimisation methodology coupled with COSI, in order to determine optimal nuclear transition scenarios for a multi-objective platform. Firstly, this methodology is based on the acceleration of scenario evaluation, enabling the use of optimisation methods in a reasonable time-frame. With this goal in mind, artificial neural network irradiation surrogate models are created with the URANIE platform (developed at the CEA/DEN) and are implemented within COSI. The next step in this work is to use, adapt and compare different optimisation methods, such as URANIE's genetic algorithm and particle swarm methods, in order to define a methodology suited to this type of study. This methodology development is based on an incremental approach which progressively adds objectives, constraints and decision variables to the optimisation problem definition. The variables added, which are related to reactor deployment and spent fuel reprocessing strategies, are chosen

Mise en Scene: Conversion of Scenarios to CSP Traces for the Requirements-to-Design-to-Code Project

Science.gov (United States)

Carter. John D.; Gardner, William B.; Rash, James L.; Hinchey, Michael G.

2007-01-01

The "Requirements-to-Design-to-Code" (R2D2C) project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is based on deriving a formal specification expressed in Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) notation from system requirements supplied in the form of CSP traces. The traces, in turn, are to be extracted from scenarios, a user-friendly medium often used to describe the required behavior of computer systems under development. This work, called Mise en Scene, defines a new scenario medium (Scenario Notation Language, SNL) suitable for control-dominated systems, coupled with a two-stage process for automatic translation of scenarios to a new trace medium (Trace Notation Language, TNL) that encompasses CSP traces. Mise en Scene is offered as an initial solution to the problem of the scenarios-to-traces "D2" phase of R2D2C. A survey of the "scenario" concept and some case studies are also provided.

Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmid, Eva; Knopf, Brigitte

2012-01-01

This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

1978-03-01

This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

The use of concept maps during knowledge elicitation in ontology development processes – the nutrigenomics use case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taylor Chris

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Incorporation of ontologies into annotations has enabled 'semantic integration' of complex data, making explicit the knowledge within a certain field. One of the major bottlenecks in developing bio-ontologies is the lack of a unified methodology. Different methodologies have been proposed for different scenarios, but there is no agreed-upon standard methodology for building ontologies. The involvement of geographically distributed domain experts, the need for domain experts to lead the design process, the application of the ontologies and the life cycles of bio-ontologies are amongst the features not considered by previously proposed methodologies. Results Here, we present a methodology for developing ontologies within the biological domain. We describe our scenario, competency questions, results and milestones for each methodological stage. We introduce the use of concept maps during knowledge acquisition phases as a feasible transition between domain expert and knowledge engineer. Conclusion The contributions of this paper are the thorough description of the steps we suggest when building an ontology, example use of concept maps, consideration of applicability to the development of lower-level ontologies and application to decentralised environments. We have found that within our scenario conceptual maps played an important role in the development process.

Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shawn R. Francis

2011-12-01

We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, Stefano; Santoro, Mattia

2010-05-01

In the last years, scientific community is producing great efforts in order to study the effects of climate change on life on Earth. In this general framework, a key role is played by the impact of climate change on biodiversity. To assess this, several use scenarios require the modeling of climatological change impact on the regional distribution of biodiversity species. Designing and developing interoperability infrastructures which enable scientists to search, discover, access and use multi-disciplinary resources (i.e. datasets, services, models, etc.) is currently one of the main research fields for the Earth and Space Science Informatics. This presentation introduces and discusses an interoperability infrastructure which implements the discovery, access, and chaining of loosely-coupled resources in the climatology and biodiversity domains. This allows to set up and run forecast and processing models. The presented framework was successfully developed and experimented in the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2) Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group. This interoperability infrastructure is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components

European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Ertug Ercin

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

Development of predictive weather scenarios for early prediction of rice yield in South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Y.; Cho, J.; Jung, I.

2017-12-01

International grain prices are becoming unstable due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather phenomena caused by climate change. Early prediction of grain yield using weather forecast data is important for stabilization of international grain prices. The APEC Climate Center (APCC) is providing seasonal forecast data based on monthly climate prediction models for global seasonal forecasting services. The 3-month and 6-month seasonal forecast data using the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique are provided in their own website, ADSS (APCC Data Service System, http://adss.apcc21.org/). The spatial resolution of seasonal forecast data for each individual model is 2.5°×2.5°(about 250km) and the time scale is created as monthly. In this study, we developed customized weather forecast scenarios that are combined seasonal forecast data and observational data apply to early rice yield prediction model. Statistical downscale method was applied to produce meteorological input data of crop model because field scale crop model (ORYZA2000) requires daily weather data. In order to determine whether the forecasting data is suitable for the crop model, we produced spatio-temporal downscaled weather scenarios and evaluated the predictability by comparison with observed weather data at 57 ASOS stations in South Korea. The customized weather forecast scenarios can be applied to various application fields not only early rice yield prediction. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development (Project No: PJ012855022017)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

Future waste treatment and energy production – an example of development of joint scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2012-01-01

Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. The article gives practical examples of how this has been done in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are m...

Development of internal transport barrier scenarios at ITER-relevant high triangularity in Jet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimini, F.G.; Becoulet, M.; Ekedahl, A.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Litaudon, X. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d' Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee; Giovannozzi, E.; Tudisco, O.; Crisanti, F. [Association Euratol/ENEA/CNR sulla Fusione, Frascali, Rome (Italy); Lomas, P.J.; Alper, B.; Hawkes, N.; Parail, V.; Zastrow, K.D. [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Baar, M. de; Vries, P. de [Association Euratom-Fom, TEC Cluster, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); La Luna, E. de [Association Euratom-Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Saibene, G. [EFDA CSU, Garching (Germany)

2004-07-01

The development of ITB s(Internal Transport Barrier) scenarios in high triangularity discharges is of particular interest for ITER advanced tokamak operation. Previous JET experiments have shown that high triangularity favours ELM (Edge Localized Mode)-Free or type I ELMs, which inhibit long lasting ITBs. The recent experiments reported here concentrate on integrated optimisation of edge and core conditions. Edge pedestal was controlled using gas injection, Deuterium or light impurities, and plasma current ramps. Both methods yield more ITB-friendly edge pedestal conditions, varying from small type I to type III ELMs and, in extreme cases, to L-mode edge. In parallel, the conditions for triggering and sustaining a wide ITB were optimised. This plasmas have deeply reversed target current profiles with g{sub min} 3. A narrow inner ITB, located in the reversed shear region, is routinely observed. Large radius ITBs are only triggered when the input power exceeds 20-22 MW, but they do not usually survive the transition into H-mode. The best results, in terms of sustained high performance, have been obtained with Neon injection: a wide ITB is triggered during the phase with L-mode edge and survives into H-mode for about 2 s at H{sub 89}{beta}{sub N} {approx} 3.5 and {approx} 60% of the Greenwald density limit. In summary, a high triangularity scenario has been developed, which combines the desirable I characteristics of controlled edge, long lasting wide ITBs and high performance at density higher than the low triangularity JET scenarios. (authors)

Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guo, Z.

1992-01-01

Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1995-12-31

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-01-01

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

1995-01-01

This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

Improving the policy of public procurements for development of science cities: agent-oriented modeling and scenario analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir I. Abramov

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Objective to assess the impact of policy change scenarios in the sphere of public procurements on the development of science cities. Methods simulation modeling agentoriented modeling. Results depressive trends of singleindustry townsrsquo development are one of the key problems in the development of Russia. At the same time the procedure for identifying suppliers proposed by the system of public procurements does not imply mechanisms that would favor the development of science cities. The article analyzes the approaches to estimate the effectiveness of the public procurements system. It is determined that the agentoriented approach is one of the most promising methods of public procurements management. Through simulation modeling in particular agentoriented approach the article presents the results of scenario experiments. It is established that public procurements can act not only as an instrument of effective expenditure of budgetary funds but also as a mechanism of economic development of territories. Although the presented experiments showed a decrease in the level of savings as a result of competitive procedures additionalnbsp socioeconomic effects were achieved due to the localization of procurements participants in the science citiesrsquo territory. Among other things the scenarios suggest reduction of transportation costs and consequently the traffic flow between Moscow and science cities which would help to reduce the load on the transport networks of megacities. Scientific novelty for the first time it was shown that the tool of public procurements can serve for stimulation and maintenance of the development of science cities and singleindustry towns and become a key factor in their development. The agentoriented model of the public procurements system functioning by the example of Zhukovskiy science city was developed which allows quantitative estimation of the consequences of introducing various mechanisms for improving the

Modeling urban expansion policy scenarios using an agent-based approach for Guangzhou Metropolitan Region of China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangjin Tian

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Policy makers and the human decision processes of urban planning have an impact on urban expansion. The behaviors and decision modes of regional authority, real estate developer, resident, and farmer agents and their interactions can be simulated by the analytical hierarchy process (AHP method. The driving factors are regressed with urban dynamics instead of static land-use types. Agents' behaviors and decision modes have an impact on the urban dynamic pattern by adjusting parameter weights. We integrate an agent-based model (ABM with AHP to investigate a complex decision-making process and future urban dynamic processes. Three policy scenarios for baseline development, rapid development, and green land protection have been applied to predict the future development patterns of the Guangzhou metropolitan region. A future policy scenario analysis can help policy makers to understand the possible results. These individuals can adjust their policies and decisions according to their different objectives.

Equity in climate-economy scenarios: the importance of subnational income distribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baer, Paul

2009-01-01

It is widely accepted that climate change raises equity considerations, and this has been addressed in various explicit and implicit ways in scenario-based climate and climate-policy research. In this paper I look in particular at the IPCC's well-known 'Special Report on Emissions Scenarios', in which equity is primarily quantified as the distribution of income between countries, and highlight the need for more explicit treatment of equity both within and across national borders. I apply an existing method for modeling subnational income distributions and show that this affects the results of welfare calculations of the type used in economic analyses of climate policy. Additionally, I suggest ways in which this kind of equity analysis could be applied to questions that address broader considerations of climate policy and development, such as burden sharing in the allocation of obligations, and conclude with remarks that frame the scenario development process in the context of what I call 'the contested storyline of the present'.

Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Mehta

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa [KTH Royal Institute of Technology, School of Architecture and the Built Environment, Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Drottning Kristinas väg 30, 10044 Stockholm (Sweden); KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications (CESC), Lindstedtsvägen 5, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

2017-03-15

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya; Ekener, Elisabeth; Moberg, Åsa

2017-01-01

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach, and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.

Deployment Effects of Marine Renewable Energy Technologies: Wave Energy Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mirko Previsic

2010-06-17

Given proper care in siting, design, deployment, operation and maintenance, wave energy conversion could become one of the more environmentally benign sources of electricity generation. In order to accelerate the adoption of these emerging hydrokinetic and marine energy technologies, navigational and environmental concerns must be identified and addressed. All developing hydrokinetic projects involve a wide variety of stakeholders. One of the key issues that site developers face as they engage with this range of stakeholders is that, due to a lack of technical certainty, many of the possible conflicts (e.g., shipping and fishing) and environmental issues are not well-understood,. In September 2008, re vision consulting, LLC was selected by the Department of Energy (DoE) to apply a scenario-based assessment to the emerging hydrokinetic technology sector in order to evaluate the potential impact of these technologies on the marine environment and navigation constraints. The project’s scope of work includes the establishment of baseline scenarios for wave and tidal power conversion at potential future deployment sites. The scenarios capture variations in technical approaches and deployment scales to properly identify and characterize environmental effects and navigational effects. The goal of the project is to provide all stakeholders with an improved understanding of the potential range of technical attributes and potential effects of these emerging technologies and focus all stakeholders on the critical issues that need to be addressed. By identifying and addressing navigational and environmental concerns in the early stages of the industry’s development, serious mistakes that could potentially derail industry-wide development can be avoided. This groundwork will also help in streamlining siting and associated permitting processes, which are considered key hurdles for the industry’s development in the U.S. today. Re vision is coordinating its efforts with two

The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User's Guide for Research Libraries

Science.gov (United States)

Association of Research Libraries, 2010

2010-01-01

This user's guide was developed to advance local planning at ARL member libraries. It is written for library leaders writ large and for anyone leading or contributing to research library planning processes. Users do not need advanced facilitation skills to benefit from this guide, but facilitators charged with supporting scenario planning will…

xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

Scenarios and the design process in medical application

OpenAIRE

Rasoulifar , Rahi; Thomann , Guillaume; Villeneuve , François

2009-01-01

6 pages; International audience; How to make healthcare products and systems fit the work they are to support is a question that has received growing attention over the last decade. In most of the studies trying to answer this question, engineers put an effort to provide the best possible technical solution, but they dispose the important position of users. Design studies in different domains indicated a focus on the users and proposed some methodologies and tools. Scenario-based design as a ...

Scientific governance and the process for exposure scenario development in REACH

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Money, C.D.; Hemmen, J.J. van; Vermeire, T.G.

2007-01-01

The primary process established by the European Commission to address the science needed to define key REACH concepts and to help rationally implement REACH's ambitions is enshrined in a series of activities known as the REACH Implementation Projects (RIPs). These are projects that aim to define the

Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

Science.gov (United States)

Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

2011-12-01

Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Alternative co-digestion scenarios for efficient fixed-dome reactor biomethanation processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fotidis, Ioannis; Laranjeiro, Tiago; Angelidaki, Irini

2016-01-01

where low-tech reactors have been abandoned. Thus, the aims of this study were: a) to identify and evaluate alternative biomasses as anaerobic digestion substrates at a remote rural area site in India; b) to propose an efficient continuous biomethanation scenario for low-tech reactors; c) to assess......-digestion scenario with 45% and 13% higher energy recovery from biomasses' utilization and 69% and 25% less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, compared to R30 and R45, respectively. These results indicate that it is possible to operate efficiently low-tech biogas reactors with utilized biomasses as anaerobic digestion...

Regional climate change scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Somot, S.

2005-01-01

Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

Development program for the high-temperature nuclear process heat system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiacoletti, R.J.

1975-09-01

A comprehensive development program plan for a high-temperature nuclear process heat system with a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor heat source is presented. The system would provide an interim substitute for fossil-fired sources and ultimately the vehicle for the production of substitute and synthetic fuels to replace petroleum and natural gas. The dwindling domestic reserves of petroleum and natural gas dictate major increases in the utilization of coal and nuclear sources to meet the national energy demand. The nuclear process heat system has significant potential in a unique combination of the two sources that is environmentally and economically attractive and technically sound: the production of synthetic fuels from coal. In the longer term, it could be the key component in hydrogen production from water processes that offer a substitute fuel and chemical feedstock free of dependence on fossil-fuel reserves. The proposed development program is threefold: a process studies program, a demonstration plant program, and a supportive research and development program. Optional development scenarios are presented and evaluated, and a selection is proposed and qualified. The interdependence of the three major program elements is examined, but particular emphasis is placed on the supportive research and development activities. A detailed description of proposed activities in the supportive research and development program with tentative costs and schedules is presented as an appendix with an assessment of current status and planning

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

2006-07-01

control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

2006-01-01

control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)

Method-Based Higher Education in Sustainability: The Potential of the Scenario Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Beecroft

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Both sustainability and education are challenging process-oriented objectives. When the aim is to combine both notions, as in Higher Education in Sustainability (HES, it is indispensable to first establish a common ground between them. In this paper, we characterise this common ground in terms of four aspects: future orientation, normativity, global perspective, and theory engaged in practice. Based on an analysis of the common ground, one method that is well-established in a wide range of sustainability sciences shows high potential for use in HES because it covers all four aspects in detail: the scenario method. We argue that a didactical reconstruction of the scenario method is necessary to utilise its potential and develop adequate forms of teaching in higher education. The scenario method is used to construct and analyse a set of alternative future developments to support decisions that have to be made in the present. Didactical reconstruction reveals a spectrum of objectives for which the scenario method can be employed: (1 projection; (2 teleological planning and (3 an explorative search for possibilities not yet considered. By studying and experimenting with this spectrum of objectives, students in HES can develop fundamental reflexive competencies in addressing the future in different ways that are relevant for both sustainability and education.

Climate change and energy scenarios in Asia-Pacific developing countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddiqi, T.A.; Foell, W.K.; Hills, P.; Nagao, Taiji

1991-01-01

Worldwide increases in energy use are the largest source of rising emissions of CO 2 . In the past, Europe and North America were the regions with the largest emissions. The rapid rate of industrialization, combined with population growth, has led to substantial increases in energy use in the developing countries of Asia and the Pacific. If present trends continue, the region will become the largest emitter of CO 2 from the use of fossil fuels within the next two or three decades. In this paper, we examine some alternate energy scenarios for the individual countries of the region and the potential for reducing CO 2 emissions from energy use to the year 2010. (author)

Development of integrated scenarios to attain the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy; Entwicklung von integrierten Szenarien zur Erreichung der umweltbezogenen Ziele der Nationalen Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fink, Alexander; Rammig, Hanna [ScMI AG Paderborn (Germany)

2013-02-15

The national sustainability strategy (NHS) shall significantly shape the direction of the sustainable development in Germany. It is aim of the project ''Development of integrated scenarios to attain the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy'' to develop different options, of how to possibly approach the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy. In a first step external scenarios were developed, which describe the national sustainability strategy. In a first step external scenarios were developed, which describe the external context for the embodiment of sustainability. In a second step, option scenarios which show alternatives for different actor groups were built for the three areas ''Leisure time, living and alimentation''. In a third step the combination of the different external scenarios and internal options has been conducted, how do the different solution areas fit to the external scenarios.

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

2016-02-11

We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

2012-01-01

Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

2011-01-01

development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change......Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...

Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

2013-09-01

This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Mohammed, John L; Sorensen, Barbara; Ong, James C; Li, Jian

2005-01-01

.... Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method...

New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, R. J.

2015-12-01

Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

Strategies and Tools for Eco-Efficient Local Food Supply Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paola Caputo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Considering the wide demand for daily meals, the issue of the institutional food system has become very important in highly developed societies and, also, how it affects the flow of energy and matter within a territory. This research originates from a wide multi-disciplinary project aimed at developing a self-sufficient approach to improve the institutional food system in an area of Northern Italy. Thus, the aim of this research is to give some guidelines to implement ideal scenarios of food production, processing, consumption, and waste management at the local level. To that end, the organization of the supply and demand within the local institutional food system is inquired. A methodology has been developed to analyze the main energy flows and matter related to this catering, and to outline possible optimal scenarios. This methodology also allows to analyze case studies and to formulate improvements in order to reduce their energy consumption while exploring all the steps of the supply chain (considering the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA approach. The use of quantitative indicators allows a comparison of the impacts related to the different steps characterizing the suggested scenarios. This paper presents results related to a test in the context of institutional catering in public schools.

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future......Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects......, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types...

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1996-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Possible future climates. The IPCC-scenarios simulated by dialogue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoekstra, J. [KEMA-KES, Arnheim (Netherlands)

1995-12-31

Global warming is an environmental problem that increasingly attracts the attention of governments, (inter)national organizations and the general public. Policymakers that want to attack this problem need to understand the causes and effects of all related aspects. For this reason integrated assessment tools are developed that allow policymakers to analyze and evaluate climate change scenarios. Dialogue is such an integrated assessment tool. This article presents the results of Dialogue when the socio-economic parameters of the six well-known IPCC-scenarios, IS92a-f (IPCC 1992) are taken as a point of departure. Using as input, variables as population growth and the energy intensity of an economy, Dialogue goes through a chain of processes and finally determines climatic changes in temperature and precipitation

Decarbonization scenarios in the electricity sector in Vietnam

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dang, Van Thanh

2016-01-01

shift in policy choices to face the needs of an accelerated but sustainable economic development. Six scenarios were constructed on the basis of a reference scenario, focusing successively on energy efficiency, nuclear, CCS, renewables and a more balanced electricity mix. Environmental constraints (CO_2 emissions reduction) have priority in the scenario building process. This multi-criteria approach is very new in Vietnam, a country more familiar with supply cost-based approach. Scenarios analyzed here take into account the carbon intensity reduction of Vietnam's power sector. It is proposed as the benchmark threshold, the emission level of 50-80 g/kWh (similar to reference level studied in two of Vietnam's neighboring Asian economies such as Indonesia and India). In our research, the different mix of electricity generation offer relevant solutions. They allow meeting the economic and environmental challenges related to the expansion of the Vietnam's electricity sector. The analysis takes into account several dimensions such as the increasing demand pressure, fuels supply security with alternative choices, reduced high electrical production total costs, control of external bill, considered social impact (especially on health of citizens) and land use and, finally, compliance with standards related to the regional, national and global environment/climate protection. (author) [fr

Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goodwin, B W; Stephens, M E; Davison, C C; Johnson, L H; Zach, R

1994-12-01

AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada`s nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices.

Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodwin, B.W.; Stephens, M.E.; Davison, C.C.; Johnson, L.H.; Zach, R.

1994-12-01

AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices

Stakeholder and expert-guided scenarios for agriculture and landscape development in a groundwater proction area

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vejre, Henrik; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Kristensen, Lone Søderkvist

2011-01-01

Nitrate and pesticide leaching led to the designation of groundwater protection zones in Denmark. The protective measures in these zones often clash with local interests in agriculture. Scenarios were used to evaluate the development of a groundwater protection zone in a farming area. Stakeholders...

Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vliet, van M.; Kok, K.

2015-01-01

Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted

Standard Establishment Through Scenarios (SETS): A new technique for occupational fitness standards.

Science.gov (United States)

Blacklock, R E; Reilly, T J; Spivock, M; Newton, P S; Olinek, S M

2015-01-01

An objective and scientific task analysis provides the basis for establishing legally defensible Physical Employment Standards (PES), based on common and essential occupational tasks. Infrequent performance of these tasks creates challenges when developing PES based on criterion, or content validity. Develop a systematic approach using Subject Matter Experts (SME) to provide tasks with 1) an occupationally relevant scenario considered common to all personnel; 2) a minimum performance standard defined by time, distance, load or work. Examples provided here relate to the development of a new PES for the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). SME of various experience are selected based on their eligibility criteria. SME are required to define a reasonable scenario for each task from personal experience, provide occupational performance requirements of the scenario in sub-groups, and discuss and agree by consensus vote on the final standard based on the definition of essential. A common and essential task for the CAF is detailed as a case example of process application. Techniques to avoid common SME rating errors are discussed and advantages to the method described. The SETS method was developed as a systematic approach to setting occupational performance standards and qualifying information from SME.

GEOSS AIP-2 Climate Change and Biodiversity Use Scenarios: Interoperability Infrastructures (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Nativi, S.; Santoro, M.

2009-12-01

Currently, one of the major challenges for scientific community is the study of climate change effects on life on Earth. To achieve this, it is crucial to understand how climate change will impact on biodiversity and, in this context, several application scenarios require modeling the impact of climate change on distribution of individual species. In the context of GEOSS AIP-2 (Global Earth Observation System of Systems, Architecture Implementation Pilot- Phase 2), the Climate Change & Biodiversity thematic Working Group developed three significant user scenarios. A couple of them make use of a GEOSS-based framework to study the impact of climate change factors on regional species distribution. The presentation introduces and discusses this framework which provides an interoperability infrastructures to loosely couple standard services and components to discover and access climate and biodiversity data, and run forecast and processing models. The framework is comprised of the following main components and services: a)GEO Portal: through this component end user is able to search, find and access the needed services for the scenario execution; b)Graphical User Interface (GUI): this component provides user interaction functionalities. It controls the workflow manager to perform the required operations for the scenario implementation; c)Use Scenario controller: this component acts as a workflow controller implementing the scenario business process -i.e. a typical climate change & biodiversity projection scenario; d)Service Broker implementing Mediation Services: this component realizes a distributed catalogue which federates several discovery and access components (exposing them through a unique CSW standard interface). Federated components publish climate, environmental and biodiversity datasets; e)Ecological Niche Model Server: this component is able to run one or more Ecological Niche Models (ENM) on selected biodiversity and climate datasets; f)Data Access

Knowledge Brokerage for Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China: Extending and Testing the FoPIA Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannes J. König

2015-04-01

Full Text Available While land serves numerous societal functions and contributes to sustainable development, it is often unclear how these functions are affected by political decisions and common drivers of land use change, such as economic development, climate change and demographic change. This study evaluates alternative land use scenarios in reference to a rural region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (China, where various processes and decisions have historically triggered unsustainable development. The scientifically tested “Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA” method is developed further to address specific features of the case study region, and its function as a knowledge-brokerage (KB tool is evaluated. Three scenarios are developed and analysed in expert workshops. “Land intensification: Agriculture” and “Land intensification: Mining” scenarios are found to have mainly negative environmental and social effects and positive economic impacts, while the “Environmental conservation and tourism” scenario is found to more positively affect all three sustainability dimensions. Assessments of methodological phases show that the FoPIA primarily serves to establish the KB process and that the framework particularly benefits from early examinations of scientific results by policy makers.

Ontario demand response scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-09-01

Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morales, J.M.; Conejo, A.J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Univ. Castilla - La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Minguez, R. [Environmental Hydraulics Institute ' ' IH Cantabria' ' , Univ. Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander (Spain)

2010-03-15

Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (author)

A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morales, J.M.; Minguez, R.; Conejo, A.J.

2010-01-01

Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.

Integrated municipal solid waste scenario model using advanced pretreatment and waste to energy processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionescu, Gabriela; Rada, Elena Cristina; Ragazzi, Marco; Mărculescu, Cosmin; Badea, Adrian; Apostol, Tiberiu

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Appropriate solution for MSW management in new and future EU countries. • Decrease of landfill disposal applying an Integrated MSW approach. • Technological impediments and environmental assessment. - Abstract: In this paper an Integrated Municipal Solid Waste scenario model (IMSW-SM) with a potential practical application in the waste management sector is analyzed. The model takes into account quantification and characterization of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) streams from different sources, selective collection (SC), advanced mechanical sorting, material recovery and advanced thermal treatment. The paper provides a unique chain of advanced waste pretreatment stages of fully commingled waste streams, leading to an original set of suggestions and future contributions to a sustainable IMSWS, taking into account real data and EU principles. The selection of the input data was made on MSW management real case studies from two European regions. Four scenarios were developed varying mainly SC strategies and thermal treatment options. The results offer useful directions for decision makers in order to calibrate modern strategies in different realities

Development and application of a tree-code in simulation scenarios of the plasma-wall interaction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berberich, Benjamin

2012-03-01

Processes in the plasma edge layer of magnetic fusion devices occur on widely disparate length- and time-scales. Also recently developed features in this particular region, such as stochastic magnetic fields, underline the necessity for three dimensional, full-kinetic simulation tools. Contemporary programs often deploy ad hoc assumptions and approximations for microscopic phenomena for which self-consistent ab initio models in principle exist, but are still computationally too expensive or complex to implement. Recently, mesh-free methods have matured into a new class of tools for such first-principles computations which thanks to their geometric flexibility are highly promising for tackling complicated TOKAMAK regions. In this work we have develop the massively parallel Tree-Code PEPC-B (Pretty Efficient Parallel Coulomb solver) into a new tool for plasma material interaction studies. After a brief overview of the working principles of Tree-Codes two main topic groups are addressed: First the leap-frog Boris integration scheme is discussed and its numerical limitations are pointed out. To overcome these limitations the method is enhanced to a guiding-center integrator. As a proof of principal, numerical experiments are conducted reproducing the anticipated drift kinetic aspects of particle orbits. It turns out that this new technique is much less sensitive to large time steps than the original concept was. One major drawback of mesh-free methods which hinders their direct use for plasma-edge simulations is the difficulty in representing solid structures and associated boundary conditions. Therefore, an alternative concept is proposed using charge carrying Wall-Particles, which fits naturally in the mesh-free doctrine. These developments incorporate the second main topic group of this report. To prove the physical correctness of this new idea, a quasi one dimensional plasma-wall interface scenario is chosen. By studying the system with great detail, good agreement

Hydrological Scenario Using Tools and Applications Available in enviroGRIDS Portal

Science.gov (United States)

Bacu, V.; Mihon, D.; Stefanut, T.; Rodila, D.; Cau, P.; Manca, S.; Soru, C.; Gorgan, D.

2012-04-01

Nowadays the decision makers but also citizens are concerning with the sustainability and vulnerability of land management practices on various aspects and in particular on water quality and quantity in complex watersheds. The Black Sea Catchment is an important watershed in the Central and East Europe. In the FP7 project enviroGRIDS [1] was developed a Web Portal that incorporates different tools and applications focused on geospatial data management, hydrologic model calibration, execution and visualization and training activities. This presentation highlights, from the end-user point of view, the scenario related with hydrological models using the tools and applications available in the enviroGRIDS Web Portal [2]. The development of SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) hydrological models is a well known procedure for the hydrological specialists [3]. Starting from the primary data (information related to weather, soil properties, topography, vegetation, and land management practices of the particular watershed) that are used to develop SWAT hydrological models, to specific reports, about the water quality in the studied watershed, the hydrological specialist will use different applications available in the enviroGRIDS portal. The tools and applications available through the enviroGRIDS portal are not dealing with the building up of the SWAT hydrological models. They are mainly focused on: calibration procedure (gSWAT [4]) - uses the GRID computational infrastructure to speed-up the calibration process; development of specific scenarios (BASHYT [5]) - starts from an already calibrated SWAT hydrological model and defines new scenarios; execution of scenarios (gSWATSim [6]) - executes the scenarios exported from BASHYT; visualization (BASHYT) - displays charts, tables and maps. Each application is built-up as a stack of functional layers. We combine different layers of applications by vertical interoperability in order to build the desired complex functionality. On

Scenario of strongly nonequilibrated Bose-Einstein condensation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berloff, Natalia G.; Svistunov, Boris V.

2002-01-01

Large scale numerical simulations of the Gross-Pitaevskii equation are used to elucidate the self-evolution of a Bose gas from a strongly nonequilibrium initial state. The stages of the process confirm and refine the theoretical scenario of Bose-Einstein condensation developed by Svistunov and co-workers [J. Mosc. Phys. Soc. 1, 373 (1991); Sov. Phys. JETP 75, 387 (1992); 78, 187 (1994)]: the system evolves from the regime of weak turbulence to superfluid turbulence via states of strong turbulence in the long-wavelength region of energy space

Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

2005-03-30

This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Dongjin; Choi, Kwangsoon; Yoon, Hyungjoon; Park, Jungsu [KEPCO-E and C, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage.

The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogner, H.H.

1984-01-01

The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

Science.gov (United States)

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

Sustainable energy-economic-environmental scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2002-03-31

IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) Project has proposed a quantitative 'working definition' of sustainable development E3 (energy-economic-environmental) scenarios. ECS has proposed four criteria for sustainability: economic growth is sustained throughout the time horizon; socioeconomic inequity among world regions is reduced over the 21st century; reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio for exhaustible primary energy resources do not decline; and long-term environmental stress is mitigated. Using these criteria, 40 long-term E3 scenarios generated by ECS models were reviewed and analyzed. Amongst the conclusions drawn were: slow population growth or stabilization of global population appears to be prerequisite for sustainable development; economic growth alone does not guarantee a sustainable future; carbon intensities of total primary energy must decrease faster than the historical trend; strategies for fossil fuel consumption must aim at non-decreasing R/P ratios; and carbon emissions must be near or below today's levels at the end of this century. The analysis of sustainable development scenarios is an important step towards formulating long-term strategies aimed at climate stabilization. 6 figs., 1 tab.

Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

2013-01-01

Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

2011-07-15

There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Almahayni, T

2014-12-01

The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

Cosmogonic scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

1985-05-01

A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erik Miranda Lopez

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Olivier JGJ; LAE

1995-01-01

An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

Evaluation of Spent Fuel Recycling Scenario using Pyro-SFR related System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong Kyo; Kim, Sang Ji; Kim, Young Jin

2014-01-01

It is needed to validate whether the recycling scenario connecting pyro-processing and sodium-cooled fast reactor(SFR) is promising or not. The latest technologies of pyro-processing are applied to SFR and the recycling scenario is evaluated through the SFR's performance analysis. The analyzed SFR is KALIMER-600 TRU burner which purpose is to transmute transuranics (TRU). National policy of CANDU SF management has not been decided yet. However, the stored quantity of this SF is large enough not to be neglected. So this study includes additionally the recycling scenario of CANDU SF. Adopting the mass ratio of TRU and RE recovered in pyro-processing is 4 to 1 on PWR SF recycling, the sodium void reactivity is higher than design basis of metal fuel. So the current pyro-processing technology is may not be acceptable. If pyro-processing technology of CANDU SF is assumed to be the same as PWR's case, CANDU recycling scenario is acceptable. Transmutation performance is worse than PWR's, while the sodium void reactivity is within design limit

Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

2013-09-24

Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

An Evaluation of Dismantling Scenarios Using a Computer Simulation Technology for KRR-1 and 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, S.K.; Park, H.S.; Lee, K.W.; Oh, W.Z.; Park, J.H.

2006-01-01

A graphic simulation has been used to design and verify new equipment and has also been expanded to virtual prototyping technology [1∼5]. In the nuclear decommissioning field, this technology has been utilized to validate the design of dismantling processes and to check the interferences and collisions in dismantling scenarios. However, a graphic simulation only provides us with visible result it just provides us with illustrative information of the decommissioning process. A scenario evaluation program has been developed using the computer simulation technology to create an efficient decommissioning plan. In the D and D planning stage, it is important that the scenarios are evaluated from a engineering point of view because the decommissioning work has to be executed economically and safely following the best scenarios. Therefore, we need several modules to evaluate scenarios. We composed the systems like this: 1. Decommissioning DB module for managing the decommissioning activity information (nuclear facility data, worker's data, radioactive inventory date, etc.). Dismantling process evaluation module 3. Visualization module for a radioactive inventory and a dismantling process using 3D CAD and virtual reality technology. 4. Analysis module for the evaluation results of a dismantling process. The evaluation module's capabilities produce a dismantling schedule, quantify radioactive waste, visualize a radioactive inventory, estimate a decommissioning cost, estimate a worker's exposure, and check for interference/collisions. After using the simulation results, the expert ranking system to evaluate scenarios for economics and worker's safety are implemented. The expert ranking system is a powerful and flexible decision making process to help set priorities and make the best decisions when both the qualitative and quantitative aspects of a decision need to be considered. By reducing complex decisions to a series of one-on-one comparisons, then synthesizing the

Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

2010-01-01

Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

Preliminary identification of scenarios that may affect the escape and transport of radionuclides from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Southeastern New Mexico

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guzowski, R V [Science Applications International Corporation, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

1990-04-15

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is being evaluated as a location for the disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. One of the criteria to be used to determine the suitability of the disposal system is compliance with the Containment Requirements established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify the combinations of events and processes (scenarios) defining possible future states of the disposal system that may affect the escape of radionuclides from the repository and transport to the accessible environment. A list of previously identified events and processes was adapted to a scenario-selection procedure that develops a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios through the use of a logic diagram. Four events resulted in the development of 16 scenarios. Preliminary analyses indicate that four scenarios result in no releases. Six scenarios consist of combinations of drilling into a room, drilling into a room and a brine reservoir, and emplacement of withdrawal wells downgradient from the repository. Six additional scenarios consist of these same six combinations with the addition of potash mining and the associated surface subsidence. The 12 retained scenarios will be screened based on consequence and/or probability of occurrence. During the course of performance assessment, additional data and information will be used to revise and update these preliminary scenarios where appropriate. (author)

Preliminary identification of scenarios that may affect the escape and transport of radionuclides from the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant, Southeastern New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.

1990-04-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is being evaluated as a location for the disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste. One of the criteria to be used to determine the suitability of the disposal system is compliance with the Containment Requirements established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify the combinations of events and processes (scenarios) defining possible future states of the disposal system that may affect the escape of radionuclides from the repository and transport to the accessible environment. A list of previously identified events and processes was adapted to a scenario-selection procedure that develops a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios through the use of a logic diagram. Four events resulted in the development of 16 scenarios. Preliminary analyses indicate that four scenarios result in no releases. Six scenarios consist of combinations of drilling into a room, drilling into a room and a brine reservoir, and emplacement of withdrawal wells downgradient from the repository. Six additional scenarios consist of these same six combinations with the addition of potash mining and the associated surface subsidence. The 12 retained scenarios will be screened based on consequence and/or probability of occurrence. During the course of performance assessment, additional data and information will be used to revise and update these preliminary scenarios where appropriate. (author)

SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

New ways for the integrated appraisal of national energy scenarios: The case of renewable energy use in Austria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madlener, Reinhard; Kowalski, Katharina; Stagl, Sigrid

2007-01-01

Increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources in heat and electricity production is a nationally and internationally acknowledged aim for sustainable development. In this context, the participatory development and appraisal of energy scenarios can be useful for enabling stakeholders to explore future energy options and for supporting the national policy discourse. The five renewable energy scenarios considered refer to Austria in the year 2020. The innovative methodology applied, which was developed as part of the ARTEMIS project, examines possible energy futures paths by combining (1) scenario development; (2) multi-criteria evaluation; and (3) a participatory process with stakeholders and energy experts on the national level. Economic, social, environmental and technological impacts as well as revealed social preferences are used for the ranking of the scenarios. Due to the paramount importance of bioenergy in Austria, special emphasis in the scenario development is put on the contribution of biomass. Two main bioenergy issues and their consideration in the ARTEMIS project are explicitly addressed in this paper: the cascadic utilisation of biomass resources and the demand for land area and land area conflicts. Overall, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied in practice and what insights policy-makers can gain from it. We also explore the methodology's limitations, especially regarding the effort required for participatory scenario building and the availability of stakeholders