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Sample records for scenario development process

  1. Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

    1999-01-01

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited

  2. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  3. Feature, event, and process screening and scenario development for the yucca mountain total system performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swift, P.; Barr, G.; Barnard, R.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Freeze, G.; Burck, P.

    2001-01-01

    Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of postclosure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). To ensure clear documentation of the treatment of potentially relevant future states of the system in the Yucca Mountain license application (LA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) has chosen to adopt a scenario development process based on the methodology developed by Cranwell et al. (1990) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Although the process, described below, has been modified somewhat as a result of experience gained in the last decade, the underlying methodology is consistent with that outlined by the DOE in the 1988 Site Characterization Plan for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) (U.S. DOE, 1988). The approach is fundamentally the same as that used in many performance assessments, including the most recent analysis of the Yucca Mountain repository by the NRC (Wescott et al., 1995). The approach has also been used by the DOE for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) (U.S. DOE, 1996), by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), and by other radioactive waste programs internationally. Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited. (authors)

  4. A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manns PJ

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

  5. A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

    2008-01-01

    The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

  6. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  7. Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

    2014-03-15

    In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  9. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  10. A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris A. Geldenhuys

    2011-02-01

    Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned. Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world. Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’. Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as a change navigation based, scenario planning process (CNBSPP. Practical/managerial implications: CNBSPP is available for use by organisations wishing to apply a strategic planning tool that fits within a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership approach. Contribution/value add: The research makes a unique contribution to the current level of knowledge by integrating two disciplines

  11. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  12. Scientific governance and the process for exposure scenario development in REACH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Money, C.D.; Hemmen, J.J. van; Vermeire, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    The primary process established by the European Commission to address the science needed to define key REACH concepts and to help rationally implement REACH's ambitions is enshrined in a series of activities known as the REACH Implementation Projects (RIPs). These are projects that aim to define the

  13. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Theodor-Heuss-Str. 4, D-38122 Braunschweig (Germany); Lommerzheim, Andre [DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, Eschenstr. 55, D-31224 Peine (Germany); Mrugalla, Sabine [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

  14. Development scenario for laser fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-01-01

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power

  15. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  16. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1997-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  17. From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

    1994-03-01

    The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

  18. Discussion of ISV Scenario Scope with Operating Process Element

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yun Goo; Oh, Eungse [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co. ltd. Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    NUREG-0711 identifies the sampling dimension of operational conditions which includes normal operation,I and C and HSI failures, transient, and accidents. Because of practical limitation of sampling, ISV scenarios do not include every expected operational condition. To develop a scenario for the ISV, it requires much time and efforts. It takes about 1 month with 3 operating crew team for 7 scenarios for the ISV. Therefore, operational conditions are screened out for integration to scenario. TSV can be used for the evaluation of monitoring, detection, and response implementation about the inventory of information and control. However, validity of operational walkthrough for other operating process element needs to be discussed. For the situation awareness, the general acceptance check list can be derived from the result of representative scenario set of ISV. The check list may contain the number of information, type of information, level of procedure and training program. For the response planning, procedure can be used for evaluation.

  19. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  20. Development formalization of the e-learning pedagogical scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олександр Іванович Пушкар

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The place of the pedagogical scenario in development of the e-learning support system has been defined. The process of student's interaction with the system of e-learning in the form of a proper dialogue has been proposed. Peculiarities of constructing typical models of scenarios of academic disciplines have been analyzed. A technique for quantitative assessment of the relationships between the objects of study in the model of a pedagogical scenario has been offered

  1. Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

    2001-01-01

    Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

  2. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  3. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  4. The prosa methodology for scenario development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grupa, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    In this paper a methodology for scenario development is proposed. The method is developed in an effort to convince ourselves (and others) that all conceivable future developments of a waste repository have been covered. To be able to assess all conceivable future developments, the method needs to be comprehensive. To convince us and others the method should be structured in such a way that the treatment of each conceivable future development is traceable. The methodology is currently being applied to two Dutch disposal designs. Preliminary results show that the elaborated method functions better than the original method. However, some elements in the method will need further refinement. (author)

  5. Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anniken Enger

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

  6. Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

    2018-04-29

    This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

  7. The joint SKI/SKB scenario development project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersson, Johan

    1989-12-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Power and Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Co. have carried through a joint scenario development exercise of a hypothetical repository for spent fuel and high level waste based on the KBS-3 concept as disposal method. The starting point has been the 'Sandia methodology', but the actual implementation of the steps in this method has required new strategy development. The work started with a relatively large internationally composed group meeting, which identified an extensive list of features, events and processes (FEPs) that might influence the long term performance of a repository. All these FEPs as well as its possible causes and consequences have been entered into a computer database. The next step in the development was to remove from the list approximately 30 FEPs of low probability or negligible consequence. In a following step a large number of the FEPs on the original list were assigned to the 'PROCESS SYSTEM', comprising the complete set of 'deterministic' chemical and physical processes that might influence the release from the repository to the biosphere. A scenario is defined by a set of external conditions which will influence the processes in the PROCESS SYSTEM. Approximately 50 FEPs were left representing external conditions. The remaining FEPs could all be combined to form scenarios, but it is concluded that it is not meaningful to discuss combinations without first analysing the consequence and probability of the individual conditions. An important aspect of the work is that the developed strategy includes a framework for the documentation of the complete chain of scenario development. Such a transparent documentation makes possible an extensive review and updating of the set of scenarios. A reviewing process, open to very broad groups in the society, is probably the best means of assuring reasonable completeness and of building up a general consensus on what are the critical issues for the safe disposal of radioactive waste

  8. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Retèl Valesca P

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005 until the future (2020. Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY, meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process

  9. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  10. Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

    2002-01-01

    Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

  11. Status of radiation processing: Indian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niyogi, U.K.

    2013-01-01

    Radiation processing is a technique to process different types of materials by way of providing radiations of different energies for various applications. Depending upon the changes, one needs to select the radiations of appropriate energy. The well established mechanism behind the changes occurring in the material is the excitation of electrons in the molecules and atoms. It is a proven technology for more than five decades which results in the modification in materials, both at the bulk and surface levels. While radiations such as IR and UV have low energy and hence affect the surface of the material only, highly energetic radiations such as gamma and e-beam are useful to modify the material at the bulk level. Radiation processing is the most efficient technique for polymerization, sterilization, disinfestations, etc. which are applied in industries such as wires and cables, healthcare, food processing, pet/animal feed, herbal and ayurvedic, artificial jewellery, etc.

  12. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  13. Advanced business process management in networked E-business scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grefen, P.W.P.J.; Türetken, O.

    2017-01-01

    In the modern economy, we see a shift towards networked business scenarios. In many contemporary situations, the operation of multiple organizations is tightly coupled in collaborative business networks. To allow this tightly coupled collaboration, business process management (BPM) in these

  14. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  15. The IIASA'83 scenario of energy development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, H.H.

    1984-01-01

    The prospects for natural gas as a major source of energy supply are good. Spurred by the energy crises of the 'seventies, recent exploration for gas resources as well as technological advances in deep drilling have enhanced the picture of gas as a plentiful fossil resource. Technological improvements in transporting gas over large distances, as piped gas and as a liquid, suggest the strong possibility of gas as an important commodity in energy trade. In addition, gas is a high quality and relatively clean fuel, which is especially attractive in today's world of environmental concern for pollution emissions from energy combustion. Such developments led to the design of the IIASA'83 Scenario of Energy Development, which explored the techno-economic feasibility of the expanded use of gas in energy systems. The work drew on the findings of the IIASA global energy analysis, documented in 'Energy in a Finite World'. All countries of the world were covered in the quantitative analysis, grouped regionally by similarity in energy resources and economic structure and not necessarily on the basis of geographic proximity. The period studied was necessarily the next half century, from 1980 to 2030, in view of the inertia in technological and economic systems and this constraint on the development of energy infrastructures. Global primary energy consumption increases some twofold from 10 TW.a/a to 21.9 TW.a/a over the next 50 years, while economic output globally grows some threefold. The breakdown of global primary energy consumption indicates an absolute increase in the use of all primary energy sources over the study period, with fossil fuels continuing to supply the lion's share of primary energy. The buildup of non-fossil energy sources to global supply levels by 2030 is likely to be constrained by the high capital investments required at a period of modest economic growth and by the sociopolitical controversy surrounding the use of some of these technologies. (author)

  16. Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

  17. Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuzhyk Kateryna

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic simulation of sustainable farm development scenarios using cognitive modeling. The paper presents a dynamic simulation system of sustainable development scenarios on farms using cognitive modeling. The system incorporates relevant variables which affect the sustainable development of farms. Its user provides answers to strategic issues connected with the level of farm sustainability over a long-term perspective of dynamic development. The work contains a description of the model structure as well as the results of simulations carried out on 16 farms in northern Ukraine. The results show that the process of sustainability is based mainly on the potential for innovation in agricultural production and biodiversity. The user is able to simulate various scenarios for the sustainable development of a farm and visualize the influence of factors on the economic and social situation, as well as on environmental aspects. Upon carrying out a series of simulations, it was determined that the development of farms characterized by sustainable development is based on additional profit, which serves as the main motivation for transforming a conventional farm into a sustainable one. Nevertheless, additional profit is not the only driving force in the system of sustainable development. The standard of living, market condition, and legal regulations as well as government support also play a significant motivational role.

  18. Trends in scenario development methodologies and integration in NUMO's approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebashi, Takeshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Kawamura, Hideki; Gaus, Irina; Vomvoris, Stratis; Martin, Andrew J.; Smith, Paul

    2011-01-01

    The development of scenarios for quantitative or qualitative analysis is a key element of the assessment of the safety of geological disposal systems. As an outcome of an international workshop attended by European and the Japanese implementers, a number of features common to current methodologies could be identified, as well as trends in their evolution over time. In the late nineties, scenario development was often described as a bottom-up process, whereby scenarios were said to be developed in essence from FEP databases. Nowadays, it is recognised that, in practice, the approaches actually adopted are better described as top-down or 'hybrid', taking as their starting point an integrated (top-down) understanding of the system under consideration including uncertainties in initial state, sometimes assisted by the development of 'storyboards'. A bottom-up element remains (hence the term 'hybrid') to the extent that FEP databases or FEP catalogues (including interactions) are still used, but the focus is generally on completeness checking, which occurs parallel to the main assessment process. Recent advances focus on the consistent treatment of uncertainties throughout the safety assessment and on the integration of operational safety and long term safety. (author)

  19. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  20. PROCESS INNOVATION: HOLISTIC SCENARIOS TO REDUCE TOTAL LEAD TIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alin POSTEUCĂ

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The globalization of markets requires continuous development of business holistic scenarios to ensure acceptable flexibility to satisfy customers. Continuous improvement of supply chain supposes continuous improvement of materials and products lead time and flow, material stocks and finished products stocks and increasing the number of suppliers close by as possible. The contribution of our study is to present holistic scenarios of total lead time improvement and innovation by implementing supply chain policy.

  1. Process development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuegerl, K

    1984-01-01

    The item 'process development' comprises the production of acetonic/butonal with C. acetobylicum and the yeasting of potato waste. The target is to increase productivity by taking the following measures - optimation of media, on-line process analysis, analysis of reaction, mathematic modelling and identification of parameters, process simulation, development of a state estimator with the help of the on-line process analysis and the model, optimization and adaptive control.

  2. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  3. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  4. Development and sustainability issues - energy scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kakodkar, Anil

    2000-01-01

    The 20th century has seen an unprecedented rise in the rate of consumption of material and energy resources. These patterns of growth and consumption have caused enormous strains on the available natural resources and the environment. Further, the benefits of available natural resources have been shared in a highly inequitable manner with a small fraction of mankind using up a large fraction of resources to a level that environmental concerns have become a global matter and are threatening to jeopardize the development of the larger fraction of humanity on grounds of global sustainability. While it has been seen that major achievements in almost all areas of human endeavour in recent times, enabling improvements in quality of life and better control over environmental degradation, there is a new challenge now of sustainability of the development process for the majority of human population. The environment with its large inertia, flexibility and stabilising mechanisms has so far some how copped up at least on a global scale with the unprecedented consumption. However, the recent trends indicate that most of the environment related cycles may not be able to take the continued abuse without disastrous global consequences. Piloting and sustaining the legitimate development of societies particularly those which are left far behind in the march towards better quality of life has, therefore, become a matter which needs very urgent consideration and action. There is thus a strong need for charting of a well deliberated goal oriented action plan with a vision that ensures due attention to the interests of all sections of society on the basis of their justifiable needs

  5. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  6. Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    OPTIMAL STRESSOR SCENARIOS FOR NEW OPERATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEMS by Geoffrey E. Fastabend December 2017 Thesis Advisor: Alejandro S... ENERGY SYSTEMS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Geoffrey E. Fastabend 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Naval Postgraduate School...developed and tested simulation model for operational energy related systems in order to develop better stressor scenarios for acceptance testing

  7. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  8. Process development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zapata G, G.

    1989-01-01

    Process development: The paper describes the organization and laboratory facilities of the group working on radioactive ore processing studies. Contains a review of the carried research and the plans for the next future. A list of the published reports is also presented

  9. Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2016-01-01

    identification, description of accident scenarios and using the conventional approach to develop static event trees for events following a loss of containment. Modelling the impacts and consequences needs models to describe the release, dispersion and effect of the hazardous material, as well as models...

  10. Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayres, R.U.

    1995-01-01

    Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

  11. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ALGORITHM FOR CHOOSING THE OPTIMAL SCENARIO FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE REGION'S ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. S. Borisova

    2018-01-01

    effect from the implementation of scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region and the specific economic effect per unit of all costs for the scenarios for the development of the economy of the Lipetsk region are analyzed. Methods: the scientific results are based on the main provisions of the neoclassical institutional theory, the principles of sustainable development and the basic postulates of the regional economy. The article uses comparative, tabular, graphical and economic-statistical methods.Results: the stages of the script justification process are developed and a formalized algorithm for selecting the optimal scenario for the development of the regional economy is formed in conditions of the predominance of a particular type of economic activity allowing the executive bodies of the regional government to use the resource potential of the regional economy to ensure the implementation of strategic changes depending on the activity of participants in the region's economy. It was found that the rationale and choice of the optimal scenario is an important stage in the development of the sustainable development program of the regional economy, since it helps to quantify the most probable trajectories of changes in the activities of all participants in the region's economy.Conclusions and Relevance: the practical significance of the developed algorithm lies in the possibility of using it to improve the stability of the development of the economy of specific regions. In particular, for the Lipetsk region, the "base" scenario is the most optimal given the resources available in the regional economy and the general state of the economy.

  12. Integrating VR and knowledge-based technologies to facilitate the development of operator training systems and scenarios to improve process safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shang, X.; Chung, P.W.H.; Vezzadini, L.; Loupos, K.; Hoekstra, W.

    2006-01-01

    Process safety can be regarded of paramount importance since any malfunction or mal-operation of a hazardous processing plant may lead to accidents that will cause damage to properties, injury to people and may even result in fatalities. This project investigates how Virtual Reality (VR) and

  13. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prinn, Ronald [MIT; Webster, Mort [MIT

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  14. Divertor scenario development for NSTX Upgrade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soukhanovskii, V. A.; McLean, A. G.; Meier, E. T.; Rognlien, T. D.; Ryutov, D. D.; Bell, R. E.; Diallo, A.; Gerhardt, S. P.; Kaita, R.; Kolemen, E.; Leblanc, B. P.; Menard, J. E.; Podesta, M.; Scotti, F.

    2012-10-01

    In the NSTX-U tokamak, initial plans for divertor plasma-facing components (PFCs) include lithium and boron coated graphite, with a staged transition to molybdenum. Steady-state peak divertor heat fluxes are projected to reach 20-30 MW/m^2 in 2 MA, 12 MW NBI-heated discharges of up to 5 s duration, thus challenging PFC thermal limits. Based on the recent NSTX divertor experiments and modeling with edge transport code UEDGE, a favorable basis for divertor power handling in NSTX-U is developed. The snowflake divertor geometry and feedback-controlled divertor impurity seeding applied to the lower and upper divertors are presently envisioned. In the NSTX snowflake experiments with lithium-coated graphite PFCs, the peak divertor heat fluxes from Type I ELMs and between ELMs were significantly reduced due to geometry effects, increased volumetric losses and null-point convective redistribution between strike points. H-mode core confinement was maintained at H98(y,2)<=1 albeit the radiative detachment. Additional CD4 seeding demonstrated potential for a further increase of divertor radiation.

  15. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  16. Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fridolin Simon. Brand

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global change. Based on a coupled human-environment system (HES perspective, we carried out a formative scenario analysis to develop a set of scenarios for the future directions of the Visp region. In addition, we linked these regional scenarios to context scenarios developed at the global and Swiss levels via an external consistency analysis. This method allows the coupling of both the scenario building process and the scenarios as such. We used a functional-dynamic approach to theory-practice cooperation, i.e., the involvement of key stakeholders from, for example, tourism, forestry, and administration, differed in type and intensity during the steps of the research process. In our study, we experienced strong problem awareness among the stakeholders concerning the impacts of global change and local challenges. The guiding research question was commonly defined and problem ownership was more or less balanced. We arrived at six multiscale scenarios that open up future trajectories for the Visp region, and present generic strategies to cope with global and local challenges. The results show that local identity, spatial planning, community budget, and demographic development are important steering elements in the region's future development. We suggest that method-guided transdisciplinary processes result in a richer picture and a more systemic understanding, which enable a discussion of critical and surprising issues.

  17. Introduction of developing a list of MSO generic scenarios for PHWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Wan; Park, Jun Hyun; Bae, Hui Soo [STANDARD Testing and Engineering Ing. Ltd, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Multiple Spurious Operation(MSO) scenarios should contain scenarios threatening Post-fire safe shutdown function by MSO of Safe Shutdown Equipments(SSEs) as well as Non-SSEs. The list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) was developed by industrial survey. Although not all scenarios of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) are considered applicable to every reactor type, this list provides an input about MSO identification and treatment process. If NEI 00-01 is applied to other reactor type, analyst should review applicability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) and consider potential MSO scenarios undescribed in the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). Especially, in PHWR case, there is no list of MSO generic scenarios in Canada or internationally. There are substantial physical variations between NPPs. So some generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) would need validation. Nevertheless, industrial stakeholder have not did any MSO work until now. In this paper, results of first stage research that develop the list of MSO generic scenarios for pressurized heavy water reactor(PHWR) is introduced. According to the review results, specific review of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) is required such as how it applies to PHWR. And criteria was established for review of availability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). However there are still many tasks such as potential scenario review, risk model review and expert panel review.

  18. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  19. Using scenario based programming to develop embedded control software

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bettiol, F.

    2015-01-01

    A new paradigm to develop embedded software is waking up the interest of companies. Its name is Scenario Based Programming and it claims to be a good approach to develop embedded software. Live Sequence Charts (LSC), a visual language supporting the paradigm, enables the developers to specify a

  20. Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

    2018-01-01

    As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

  1. Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2008-01-01

    As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

  2. Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

  3. Scenario Development Workshop Synopsis. Integration Group for the Safety Case - June 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Paul; Voinis, Sylvie; Griffault, Lise; De Meredieu, Jean; Kwong, Gloria; ); Van Luik, Abraham; Bailey, Lucy; Capouet, Manuel; Depaus, Christophe; Makino, Hitoshi; Leigh, Christi; Kirkes, Ross; Leino, Jaakko; Niemeyer, Matthias; Wolf, Jens; Watson, Sarah; Franke, Bettina; Ilett, Doug; Pastina, Barbara; Weetjens, Eef

    2016-03-01

    Scenario development and selection describes the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information relevant to the potential paths of evolution of a radioactive waste disposal facility (repository) that is necessary to assess its long-term performance and safety. In 1999, the NEA held its first workshop on scenario development in Madrid, Spain, with the objective to review the methods for developing scenarios in safety assessments and their application. Since then, the process of scenario development and analysis for the disposal of radioactive waste has changed and, in 2015, the NEA Integration Group for the Safety Case (IGSC) held a second workshop on this topic at its offices in Paris to further evaluate the experience acquired in developing scenarios since 1999. To prepare for this workshop, the IGSC also launched a survey in 2014 to gather the latest scenario development and uncertainty management strategies used in IGSC member countries. The purposes of the workshop were to (i) provide a forum to review and discuss methods for scenario development and their contribution to the development of recent safety cases (since the 1999 workshop); (ii) examine the latest methods and compare their scope, consistency and function within the overall safety assessment process, based on practical experience of applications; and (iii) provide a basis for producing the present report summarising the current status of scenario methodologies, identifying where sufficient methods exist and any outstanding problem areas. This report provides an overview of the state of the art in scenario development related to the long-term safety of geological repositories for radioactive waste. In particular, it discusses how potential scenarios are developed in safety assessments of radioactive waste that contains long-lived radionuclides. Safety assessment is the process of quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the safety of a repository, often in support of a

  4. Biosphere scenario development. An interim report of an SKI, SSI, SKB working group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-11-01

    The Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate and the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co have initiated a project for the development of scenarios for the behaviour of radionuclides in high level waste following deep geological disposal. The main objective is to develop a general consensus of scenarios and conceptual models. Within the project a biosphere scenarios working group was initiated to consider specific questions of the biosphere. This report describes the results of the group's deliberations up to the end of July 1989. A methodology is presented for the development of biosphere scenarios which may be considered alongside scenarios for radionuclide behaviour in the near field and geosphere. Two major biosphere elements affecting processes in the surface environment have been recognised, climate and development. Alternative states for climate and level of development are suggested and each combination can be considered with one or more of a range of biosphere receptors, such as a river or a lake. The features, events and processes relevant to each receptor are presented. Consideration is then given to biosphere assumptions for both gradual and direct releases from the geosphere, as well as biosphere effects on the repository near field or geosphere. The amount of screening which can be done at this stage to limit the number of biosphere scenarios is small. However, considerable potential exists once more details are available for geosphere release scenarios. It may be appropriate to further develop biosphere scenarios, specific to each geosphere release scenario. It may also be appropriate to consider scenarios specifically in relation to the individual radionuclides which dominate geosphere releases. Both these possibilities could result in considerably reduced requirements for calculations

  5. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2014-01-01

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability

  6. Development of nuclear spent fuel Maritime transportation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Min; Kang, Hyun Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-08-15

    Spent fuel transportation of South Korea is to be conducted through near sea because it is able to ship a large amount of the spent fuel far from the public comparing to overland transportation. The maritime transportation is expected to be increased and its risk has to be assessed. For the risk assessment, this study utilizes the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method and the notions of the combined event. Risk assessment of maritime transportation of spent fuel is not well developed in comparison with overland transportation. For the assessment, first, the transportation scenario should be developed and categorized. Categories are assorted into the locations, release aspects and exposure aspects. This study deals with accident that happens on voyage and concentrated on ship-ship collision. The collision accident scenario is generated with event tree analysis. The scenario will be exploited for the maritime transportation risk model which includes consequence and accident probability.

  7. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

    1998-01-01

    Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

  8. Systematic approach to scenario development using FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, L.E.E.; Lever, D.A.

    2001-01-01

    UK regulatory requirements require that the 'assessed radiological risk ... to a representative member of the potentially exposed group at greatest risk should be consistent with a risk target of 10 -6 per year' and that risks should be 'summed over all situations that could give rise to exposure to the group'. It is a further requirement that a repository performance assessment provides a 'comprehensive record of the judgements and assumptions on which the risk assessments are based'. In order to meet these requirements, Nirex, working with AEA Technology, has developed an approach to performance assessment based on the identification and analysis of features, events and processes (FEPs). The objectives of the approach are to provide a comprehensive, traceable and clear presentation of a performance assessment for a deep geological radioactive waste repository. The approach to scenario development is fundamental to the overall Nirex strategy for performance assessment, eventually leading to a repository safety case for regulatory submission. This paper outlines the main concepts of the approach, illustrated with examples of work undertaken by Nirex to demonstrate its practicality. Due to the current status of the Nirex repository programme, the approach has not yet been used to conduct a full performance assessment of a repository located at a specific site. (authors)

  9. Design storytelling with future scenario development; envisioning "the museum"

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eggink, Wouter; Albert de la Bruheze, Adri A.

    2015-01-01

    There are different ways to tell stories with design. This paper shows possibilities of telling stories by envisioning the future. Overall, design has the very ability to envision, visualize and express things that do not exist yet. We introduce the Future Scenario Development Design methodology as

  10. Summary of FY-1978 consultation input for Scenario Methodology Development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, B.L.; Benson, G.L.; Craig, R.A.; Harwell, M.A.

    1979-11-01

    The Scenario Methodology Development task is concerned with evaluating the geologic system surrounding an underground repository and describing the phenomena (volcanic, seismic, meteorite, hydrologic, tectonic, climate, etc.) which could perturb the system and possibly cause loss of repository integrity. This document includes 14 individual papers. Separate abstracts were prepared for all 14 papers

  11. Bridging Scales: Developing a Framework to Build a City-Scale Environmental Scenario for Japanese Municipalities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashimoto, S.; Fujita, T.; Nakayama, T.; Xu, K.

    2007-12-01

    There is an ongoing project on establishing environmental scenarios in Japan to evaluate middle to long-term environmental policy and technology options toward low carbon society. In this project, the time horizon of the scenarios is set for 2050 on the ground that a large part of social infrastructure in Japan is likely to be renovated by that time, and cities are supposed to play important roles in building low carbon society in Japan. This belief is held because cities or local governments could implement various policies and programs, such as land use planning and promotion of new technologies with low GHG emissions, which produce an effect in an ununiform manner, taking local socio-economic conditions into account, while higher governments, either national or prefectural, could impose environmental tax on electricity and gas to alleviate ongoing GHG emissions, which uniformly covers their jurisdictions. In order for local governments to devise and implement concrete administrative actions equipped with rational policies and technologies, referring the environmental scenarios developed for the entire nation, we need to localize the national scenarios, both in terms of spatial and temporal extent, so that they could better reflect local socio-economic and institutional conditions. In localizing the national scenarios, the participation of stakeholders is significant because they play major roles in shaping future society. Stakeholder participation in the localization process would bring both creative and realistic inputs on how future unfolds on a city scale. In this research, 1) we reviewed recent efforts on international and domestic scenario development to set a practical time horizon for a city-scale environmental scenario, which would lead to concrete environmental policies and programs, 2) designed a participatory scenario development/localization process, drawing on the framework of the 'Story-and-Simulation' or SAS approach, which Alcamo(2001) proposed

  12. Coordinated Development and Deployment of Scenarios for Sustained Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipschultz, F.; Weaver, C. P.; Leidner, A. K.; Delgado, A.; Grambsch, A.

    2017-12-01

    There has been a clear need for a more coordinated Federal government approach for authoritative, climate-relevant scenarios to support growing demands by decision-makers, to meet stakeholder needs for consistent approaches and guidance, and to better address the needs of the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability community. To begin to satisfy these decision-support needs, in early 2015 the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) began coordinated production of scenario information for use across a suite of USGCRP activities. These have been implemented in the 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), the Climate Science Special Report and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT), all of which are intended to help better organize, summarize, and communicate science to decision-makers as they think about our future. First, USGCRP introduced and implemented an explicit risk-framing approach across the entire scenario enterprise to encourage exploration of tail risks. A suite of scenario products was developed framed around three simplified storylines: `Lower', `Higher', and `Upper Bound' departures from current baselines. Second, USGCRP developed future climate information for the U.S. using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP 4.5, including a weighted mean of Global Climate Models and adoption of an improved statistical downscaling approach across USGCRP products. Additional variables were derived from the downscaled parameters for use across USGCRP reports and in the CRT's Climate Explorer tool. Third, and given the need to address other tightly-coupled global changes in a more integrated way, a set of population, housing density, and impervious surface projections were developed based on global scenarios. In addition, USGCRP and the National Ocean Council developed scenarios of future sea-level rise and coastal-flood hazard for the U.S. and integrated them into existing Federal capabilities to support preparedness planning. To better convey these

  13. Development of a digital mock-up system for selecting a decommissioning scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2006-01-01

    The evaluation of decommissioning scenarios is critical to the successful development and execution of a decommissioning project. In the past, many experts have used a physical mock-up system to find the exact work processes and the working positions. Nowadays, these jobs are being done by a Digital Mock-Up (DMU) system. The DMU, which is a technology to realize an effective work process by using virtual environments through representing the physical and logical schema and the behavior of a real decommissioning work, can save on the cost and time, reduce the risk of making later changes, and develop various decommissioning scenarios. In this research, a decommissioning DMU system was developed for simulating the relevant dismantling processes. Decommissioning data-computing modules which can calculate a dismantling schedule, quantify a radioactive waste, visualize a radioactive inventory, estimate a decommissioning cost, and estimate a worker's exposure were also developed to qualitatively assess the decommissioning information. And an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was developed to evaluate the decommissioning scenarios which reflected the quantitative and qualitative considerations. To establish the proper scenario for the thermal column in KRR-1, the developed decommissioning DMU system was applied to evaluate the two candidate scenarios of it

  14. Ten factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks for health information technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Alissa L; Saleem, Jason J

    2018-02-01

    The quality of usability testing is highly dependent upon the associated usability scenarios. To promote usability testing as part of electronic health record (EHR) certification, the Office of the National Coordinator (ONC) for Health Information Technology requires that vendors test specific capabilities of EHRs with clinical end-users and report their usability testing process - including the test scenarios used - along with the results. The ONC outlines basic expectations for usability testing, but there is little guidance in usability texts or scientific literature on how to develop usability scenarios for healthcare applications. The objective of this article is to outline key factors to consider when developing usability scenarios and tasks to evaluate computer-interface based health information technologies. To achieve this goal, we draw upon a decade of our experience conducting usability tests with a variety of healthcare applications and a wide range of end-users, to include healthcare professionals as well as patients. We discuss 10 key factors that influence scenario development: objectives of usability testing; roles of end-user(s); target performance goals; evaluation time constraints; clinical focus; fidelity; scenario-related bias and confounders; embedded probes; minimize risks to end-users; and healthcare related outcome measures. For each factor, we present an illustrative example. This article is intended to aid usability researchers and practitioners in their efforts to advance health information technologies. The article provides broad guidance on usability scenario development and can be applied to a wide range of clinical information systems and applications. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Engaging Stakeholders through Participatory Mapping and Spatial Analysis in a Scenarios Process for Alaska's North Slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fradkin, B.; Vargas, J. C.; Lee, O. A.; Emperador, S.

    2016-12-01

    A scenarios process was conducted for Alaska's North Slope to consider the wide range of drivers of change and uncertainties that could contribute to shifts in research and monitoring needs over the next 25 years. The project team, consisting of specialists in participatory scenarios and academic researchers, developed an interactive approach that helped facilitate the exploration of a range of plausible changes in the region. Over two years, the team designed and executed a series of workshops to capitalize on the collective expertise of researchers, resource managers, industry representatives, and traditional and local knowledge holders on the North Slope. The goal of this process was to evaluate three energy and resource development scenarios, which incorporated biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, to assess the implications of development on high-priority biophysical resources and the subsistence lifestyle and well-being of its Inupiat residents. Due to the diversity of the stakeholders engaged in the process, the workshop materials and activities had to be carefully designed and executed, in order to provide an adequate platform for discussion of each scenario component, as well as generating products that would provide management-relevant information to the NSSI and its member entities. Each workshop implemented a participatory mapping component, which relied on the best available geospatial datasets to generate informational maps that enabled participants to effectively consider a wide range of variables and outcomes for each of the selected scenarios. In addition, the map sketches produced in each workshop were digitized and incorporated into a spatial analysis that evaluated the level of agreement between stakeholder groups, as well as evaluating the geographic overlap of development features and anticipated implications with terrestrial and marine habitats, subsistence hunting zones, and sensitive landscape elements such as permafrost. This presentation

  16. The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

  17. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

  18. Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Ruge

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

  19. Development of Accident Scenarios and Quantification Methodology for RAON Accelerator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yongjin; Jae, Moosung

    2014-01-01

    The RIsp (Rare Isotope Science Project) plans to provide neutron-rich isotopes (RIs) and stable heavy ion beams. The accelerator is defined as radiation production system according to Nuclear Safety Law. Therefore, it needs strict operate procedures and safety assurance to prevent radiation exposure. In order to satisfy this condition, there is a need for evaluating potential risk of accelerator from the design stage itself. Though some of PSA researches have been conducted for accelerator, most of them focus on not general accident sequence but simple explanation of accident. In this paper, general accident scenarios are developed by Event Tree and deduce new quantification methodology of Event Tree. In this study, some initial events, which may occur in the accelerator, are selected. Using selected initial events, the accident scenarios of accelerator facility are developed with Event Tree. These results can be used as basic data of the accelerator for future risk assessments. After analyzing the probability of each heading, it is possible to conduct quantification and evaluate the significance of the accident result. If there is a development of the accident scenario for external events, risk assessment of entire accelerator facility will be completed. To reduce the uncertainty of the Event Tree, it is possible to produce a reliable data via the presented quantification techniques

  20. Analytical methodology for optimization of waste management scenarios in nuclear installation decommissioning process - 16148

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachar, Matej; Necas, Vladimir; Daniska, Vladimir; Rehak, Ivan; Vasko, Marek

    2009-01-01

    The nuclear installation decommissioning process is characterized by production of large amount of various radioactive and non-radioactive waste that has to be managed, taking into account its physical, chemical, toxic and radiological properties. Waste management is considered to be one of the key issues within the frame of the decommissioning process. During the decommissioning planning period, the scenarios covering possible routes of materials release into the environment and radioactive waste disposal, should be discussed and evaluated. Unconditional and conditional release to the environment, long-term storage at the nuclear site, near surface or deep geological disposal and relevant material management techniques for achieving the final status should be taken into account in the analysed scenarios. At the level of the final decommissioning plan, it is desirable to have the waste management scenario optimized for local specific facility conditions taking into account a national decommissioning background. The analytical methodology for the evaluation of decommissioning waste management scenarios, presented in the paper, is based on the materials and radioactivity flow modelling, which starts from waste generation activities like pre-dismantling decontamination, selected methods of dismantling, waste treatment and conditioning, up to materials release or conditioned radioactive waste disposal. The necessary input data for scenarios, e.g. nuclear installation inventory database (physical and radiological data), waste processing technologies parameters or material release and waste disposal limits, have to be considered. The analytical methodology principles are implemented into the standardised decommissioning parameters calculation code OMEGA, developed in the DECOM company. In the paper the examples of the methodology implementation for the scenarios optimization are presented and discussed. (authors)

  1. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  2. Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each

  3. The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios-Part I: Development of a backcasting methodology with stakeholder participation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mander, Sarah L.; Bows, Alice; Anderson, Kevin L.; Shackley, Simon; Agnolucci, Paolo; Ekins, Paul

    2008-01-01

    The Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios project has outlined alternative pathways whereby a 60% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 1990 levels by 2050, a goal adopted by the UK Government, can be achieved. This paper, Part I of a two part paper, describes the methodology used to develop the scenarios and outlines the motivations for the project. The study utilised a backcasting approach, applied in three phases. In phase one, a set of credible and consistent end-points that described a substantially decarbonised energy system in 2050 were generated and reviewed by stakeholders. In phase two, pathways were developed to achieve the transition to the desired end-point. The impacts of the scenarios were assessed in phase three, by means of a deliberative multi-criteria assessment framework. The scenarios to emerge from this process are elaborated in Part II, and conclusions drawn in relation to the feasibility of achieving the 60% target

  4. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  5. Developing the "Lunar Vicinity" Scenario of the Global Exploration Roadmap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, G.; Neal, C. R.; Crawford, I. A.; Ehrenfreund, P.

    2014-04-01

    The Global Exploration Roadmap (GER, [1]) has been developed by the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG - comprised of 14 space agencies) to define various pathways to getting humans beyond low Earth orbit and eventually to Mars. Such pathways include visiting asteroids or the Moon before going on to Mars. This document has been written at a very high level and many details are still to be determined. However, a number of important papers regarding international space exploration can form a basis for this document (e.g. [2,3]). In this presentation, we focus on developing the "Lunar Vicinity" scenario by adding detail via mapping a number of recent reports/documents into the GER. Precedence for this scenario is given by Szajnfarber et al. [4] who stated "We find that when international partners are considered endogenously, the argument for a "flexible path" approach is weakened substantially. This is because international contributions can make "Moon first" economically feasible". The documents highlighted here are in no way meant to be all encompassing and other documents can and should be added, (e.g., the JAXA Space Exploration Roadmap). This exercise is intended to demonstrate that existing documents can be mapped into the GER despite the major differences in granularity, and that this mapping is a way to promote broader national and international buy-in to the Lunar Vicinity scenario. The documents used here are: the Committee on Space Research (COSPAR) Panel on Exploration report on developing a global space exploration program [5], the Strategic Knowledge Gaps (SKGs) report from the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group (LEAG) [6], the Lunar Exploration Roadmap developed by LEAG [7], the National Research Council report Scientific Context for the Exploration of the Moon (SCEM) [8], the scientific rationale for resuming lunar surface exploration [9], the astrobiological benefits of human space exploration [9,10].

  6. Development of RF Tools and Scenarios for ITER on JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noterdaeme, J.M.; Bobkov, V.; Mantsinen, M.; Salmi, A.; Santala, M.; Rantamaki, K.; Ekedahl, A.; Eriksson, L.G.; Lamalle, P.U.; Lyssoivan, A.; Van Eester, A.D.; Mailloux, J.; Monakhov, I.; Sharapov, S.; Mayoral, M.L.; Meo, F.

    2005-01-01

    The improvement of lower hybrid (LH) coupling with local puffing of D 2 gas, which made operation at ITER relevant distances (10 cm) and with ELMs (edge localized modes) a reality, has been extended to ITER- like plasma shapes with higher triangularity. With ICRF(ion cyclotron resonance frequency), we developed 4 tools such as -1) localized direct electron heating using the He 3 mode conversion scenario for electron heat transport studies, -2) the production of He 4 ions with energies in the MeV range by 3 ω c acceleration of beam injected ions at 120 keV to investigate Alfven instabilities and test α diagnostics, -3) the stabilisation and destabilization of sawteeth and -4) ICRF as as a wall conditioning. Several ITER relevant scenarios were tested. The (He 3 )H minority heating scenario, considered for the non-activated start-up phase of ITER, produces at very low concentration energetic He 3 which heat the electrons indirectly. For n(He 3 )/n e > 2%, the scenario is transformed to a mode conversion scenario where the electrons are heated directly. The (D)H minority heating is not accessible as the concentration of C 6+ dominates the wave propagation and always leads to a mode conversion. The minority heating of T in D is very effective heating for ions and producing neutrons. New results were obtained in several areas of ICRF physics. Experimental evidence confirmed the theoretical prediction that, as the Larmor radius increases beyond 0.5 times the perpendicular wavelength of the wave, the second harmonic acceleration of the ions decreases to very small levels. An exotic fusion reaction (pT) must be taken into account when evaluating neutron rates. The contribution of fast particles accelerated by ICRF to the plasma rotation was clearly identified, but it is only part of an underlying, and not yet understood, co-current plasma rotation. Progress was made in the physics of ELMs while their effect on the ICRF coupling could be minimized with the conjugate

  7. Scenarios and the design process in medical application

    OpenAIRE

    Rasoulifar , Rahi; Thomann , Guillaume; Villeneuve , François

    2009-01-01

    6 pages; International audience; How to make healthcare products and systems fit the work they are to support is a question that has received growing attention over the last decade. In most of the studies trying to answer this question, engineers put an effort to provide the best possible technical solution, but they dispose the important position of users. Design studies in different domains indicated a focus on the users and proposed some methodologies and tools. Scenario-based design as a ...

  8. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-01-01

    Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  9. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-07-01

    Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  10. Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

    2018-03-15

    Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

  11. Development of exploratory approach for scenario analysis in the performance assessment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu; Grindrod, Peter

    1998-01-01

    It becomes difficult to apply the ordinary method for scenario analysis as number of the processes and complexity in their interrelations are increased. For this problem, an exploratory approach, that can perform scenario analysis on wider range of problems, was developed. The approach includes ensemble runs of a mass transport model, that was developed as a generic and flexible model and can cover effects of various processes on the mass transport, and analysis of sensitivity structure among the input and output space of the ensemble runs. The technique of clustering and principal component analysis were applied in the approach. As the result of its test application, applicability of the approach was confirmed to identify important processes from number of the processes in the systematic and objective manner. (author)

  12. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

    2016-10-15

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

  13. A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, In Hyo; Son, Han Seong; Kim, Si Won; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system

  14. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  15. Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

    1994-01-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

  16. Potato processing scenario in India: Industrial constraints, future projections, challenges ahead and remedies - A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marwaha, R S; Pandey, S K; Kumar, Dinesh; Singh, S V; Kumar, Parveen

    2010-03-01

    Indian potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) processing industry has emerged fast due to economic liberalization coupled with growing urbanization, expanding market options and development of indegenous processing varieties. India's first potato processing varieties 'Kufri Chipsona-1' and 'Kufri Chipsona-2' were developed in 1998, followed by an improved processing variety 'Kufri Chipsona-3' in 2005 for the Indian plains and first chipping variety 'Kufri Himsona' for the hills. These varieties have >21% tuber dry matter content, contain low reducing sugars (products. The availability of these varieties and standardization of storage techniques for processing potatoes at 10-12°C with sprout suppressant isopropyl N-(3-chlorophenyl) carbamate have revolutionized the processing scenario within a short span of 10 years. Currently about 4% of total potato produce is being processed in organized and unorganized sector. Potato processing industry mainly comprises 4 segments: potato chips, French fries, potato flakes/powder and other processed products. However, potato chips still continue to be the most popular processed product. The major challenge facing the industries lies in arranging round the year supply of processing varieties at reasonable price for their uninterrupted operation, besides several others which have been discussed at length and addressed with concrete solutions.

  17. Development of regional climate scenarios in the Netherlands - involvement of users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessembinder, Janette; Overbeek, Bernadet

    2013-04-01

    Climate scenarios are consistent and plausible pictures of possible future climates. They are intended for use in studies exploring the impacts of climate change, and to formulate possible adaptation strategies. To ensure that the developed climate scenarios are relevant to the intended users, interaction with the users is needed. As part of the research programmes "Climate changes Spatial Planning" and "Knowledge for Climate" several projects on climate services, tailoring of climate information and communication were conducted. Some of the important lessons learned about user interaction are: *) To be able to deliver relevant climate information in the right format, proper knowledge is required on who will be using the climate information and data, how it will be used and why they use it; *) Users' requirements can be very diverse and requirements may change over time. Therefore, sustained (personal) contact with users is required; *) Organising meetings with climate researchers and users of climate information together, and working together in projects results in mutual understanding on the requirements of users and the limitations to deliver certain types of climate information, which facilitates the communication and results in more widely accepted products; *) Information and communication should be adapted to the type of users (e.g. impact researchers or policy makers) and to the type of problem (unstructured problems require much more contact with the users). In 2001 KNMI developed climate scenarios for the National Commission on Water management in the 21st century (WB21 scenarios). In 2006 these were replaced by a the KNMI'06 scenarios, intended for a broader group of users. The above lessons are now taken into account during the development of the next generation of climate scenarios for the Netherlands, expected at the end of 2013, after the publication of the IPCC WG1 report: *) users' requirements are taken into account explicitly in the whole process

  18. Your Vision or My Model? Lessons from Participatory Land Use Scenario Development on a European Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Volkery, Axel; Ribeiro, Teresa; Henrichs, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    different perspectives. However, this task is all but easy as it requires a careful balancing of approaches and an acceptance of different levels of knowledge and trust in different methods across disciplinary boundaries. In spite of a growing body of literature we are still in the early stages of learning......-term alternative land use scenarios in cooperation with experts and modellers. The scenarios have been used in a formal outreach process with key clients and stakeholders at the European and Member State level afterwards. The aim of this paper is to document the methods used, analyse their strengths and weaknesses...... effectively trigger strategic conversations among policy-makers and key stakeholders about potential future developments and related response strategies. A weak integration with quantitative results can undermine this outcome, which is one of the ultimate objectives of any scenario exercise....

  19. Adaptive Process Management in Highly Dynamic and Pervasive Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimiliano de Leoni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Process Management Systems (PMSs are currently more and more used as a supporting tool for cooperative processes in pervasive and highly dynamic situations, such as emergency situations, pervasive healthcare or domotics/home automation. But in all such situations, designed processes can be easily invalidated since the execution environment may change continuously due to frequent unforeseeable events. This paper aims at illustrating the theoretical framework and the concrete implementation of SmartPM, a PMS that features a set of sound and complete techniques to automatically cope with unplanned exceptions. PMS SmartPM is based on a general framework which adopts the Situation Calculus and Indigolog.

  20. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  1. Methodological progress in the development of scenarios for ENRESA-2000 Performance assessment exercise

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortes Martin, A.

    2000-01-01

    ENRESA is carrying out a new safety assessment exercise for a deep geological spent fuel disposal facility located in granite, known as ENRESA-2000. One of the main objectives of this safety analysis is the integration and implementation of all R and D studies performed to date by ENRESA, as well as the identification of those aspects of the assessment which require further investigation. One of the main activities of this exercise is the selection and development of the scenarios to be quantitatively analysed during the assessment, where a scenario is defined as a sufficient number of FEPs (ie relevant features, events and processes) as well as their influence relationships, which explain the behaviour of the disposal system. As a result of these three methods, a definitive list of FEPs will be obtained for the ENRESA-2000 exercise. Once grouped into scenarios, these FEPs will be used to model and calculate consequences. This process of generation and development of scenarios for the ENRESA-2000 performance assessment exercise is presented in this paper. (Author)

  2. Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohammed, John L; Sorensen, Barbara; Ong, James C; Li, Jian

    2005-01-01

    .... Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method...

  3. Future energy demand in Laos. Scenario alternatives for development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luukkanen, J.; Kouphokham, K.; Panula-Ontto, J. [and others

    2012-07-01

    Energy production in Laos is still dominated by traditional fuels. Fuelwood in the main source of energy and most of the energy is consumed at households for cooking. Increase in the number of cars and motorbikes is rapidly increasing the use of imported petroleum products. Electrification is one of the central targets of the Lao government. The electrification rate has increased fast in Laos and in the year 2010 over 70 % households had electricity supply. The target is to have 90 % access to electricity by the year 2020. The World Bank regards the electrification of Lao PDR to be a success story. This paper deals with the present and future energy consumption in Laos. First the historical trends of energy use in different sectors are analysed. The future scenarios are constructed using LaoLinda model. Four different future alternative development paths are analysed using the model results. The energy use data source for the analysis is from the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) of Lao PDR. Economic and other data is from the Department of Statistics of Lao PDR.

  4. Collaborative development of land use change scenarios for analysing hydro-meteorological risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    of land change, and is transferable to other case study areas with different land use change processes and consequences. The framework starts with the involvement of stakeholders where driving forces of land use change are being studied by performing interviews and group discussions. In order to bridge the gap between qualitative methods and conventional geospatial techniques, we applied cognitive mapping and the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact and Response framework (DPSIR) to develop a conceptual land use change model. This was later transformed into a spatially explicit land use change model based on remote sensing data, GIS and cellular automata spatial allocation. The methodology was developed and applied in a study area in the eastern Italian Alps, where the uncertainties regarding future urban expansion are high. Later, we transferred it to a study area in the Romanian Carpathians, where the identified prevailing process of land use change is deforestation. Both areas are subject to hydro-meteorological risk, posing a need for the analysis of the possible future spatial pattern and locations of land use change. The resulting scenarios enabled us, to point at identifying hot-spots of land use change, serving as a possible input for a risk assessment.

  5. Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

  6. A formal framework for scenario development in support of environmental decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Yajing; Hartmann, H.; Stewart, S.; Wagener, T.; Semmens, D.; Stewart, R.; Gupta, H.; Dominguez, D.; Dominguez, F.; Hulse, D.; Letcher, R.; Rashleigh, Brenda; Smith, C.; Street, R.; Ticehurst, J.; Twery, M.; van, Delden H.; Waldick, R.; White, D.; Winter, L.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions. Often, scenarios are developed in a context relevant to stakeholders involved in their applications since the evaluation of scenario outcomes and implications can enhance decision-making activities. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and proposes a formal approach to scenario development in environmental decision-making. The discussion of current issues in scenario studies includes advantages and obstacles in utilizing a formal scenario development framework, and the different forms of uncertainty inherent in scenario development, as well as how they should be treated. An appendix for common scenario terminology has been attached for clarity. Major recommendations for future research in this area include proper consideration of uncertainty in scenario studies in particular in relation to stakeholder relevant information, construction of scenarios that are more diverse in nature, and sharing of information and resources among the scenario development research community. ?? 2008 Elsevier Ltd.

  7. CONSTRUCTIVE MODEL OF ADAPTATION OF DATA STRUCTURES IN RAM. PART II. CONSTRUCTORS OF SCENARIOS AND ADAPTATION PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Shynkarenko

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose.The second part of the paper completes presentation of constructive and the productive structures (CPS, modeling adaptation of data structures in memory (RAM. The purpose of the second part in the research is to develop a model of process of adaptation data in a RAM functioning in different hardware and software environments and scenarios of data processing. Methodology. The methodology of mathematical and algorithmic constructionism was applied. In this part of the paper, changes were developed the constructors of scenarios and adaptation processes based on a generalized CPS through its transformational conversions. Constructors are interpreted, specialized CPS. Were highlighted the terminal alphabets of the constructor scenarios in the form of data processing algorithms and the constructor of adaptation – in the form of algorithmic components of the adaptation process. The methodology involves the development of substitution rules that determine the output process of the relevant structures. Findings. In the second part of the paper, system is represented by CPS modeling adaptation data placement in the RAM, namely, constructors of scenarios and of adaptation processes. The result of the implementation of constructor of scenarios is a set of data processing operations in the form of text in the language of programming C#, constructor of the adaptation processes – a process of adaptation, and the result the process of adaptation – the adapted binary code of processing data structures. Originality. For the first time proposed the constructive model of data processing – the scenario that takes into account the order and number of calls to the various elements of data structures and adaptation of data structures to the different hardware and software environments. At the same the placement of data in RAM and processing algorithms are adapted. Constructionism application in modeling allows to link data models and algorithms for

  8. Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Land Access Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Aaron L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-04

    Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including access to land. Activities required for accessing land, such as environmental review and private and public leasing can take a considerable amount of time and can delay or prevent project development. This paper discusses the impacts to available geothermal resources and deployment caused by land access challenges, including tribal and cultural resources, environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land ownership, federal and state lease queues, and proximity to military installations. In this analysis, we identified challenges that have the potential to prevent development of identified and undiscovered hydrothermal geothermal resources. We found that an estimated 400 MW of identified geothermal resource potential and 4,000 MW of undiscovered geothermal resource potential were either unallowed for development or contained one or more significant barriers that could prevent development at the site. Potential improvement scenarios that could be employed to overcome these barriers include (1) providing continuous funding to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) for processing geothermal leases and permit applications and (2) the creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures. The model results forecast that continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 80 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 124 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures coupled with continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 97 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 152 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The small impact on potential deployment in these improvement scenarios suggests that these 4,400 MW have other barriers to development in addition to land access. In other words, simply

  9. Scenarios for ITS telecommunications technologies development in Poland for the years 2007-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazimierz BARTCZAK

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The article shows four scenarios for the development of ITS communications technologies in Poland for the years 2007-2013. Global Business Network methodology is used to make up the scenarios. The basic dimensions of the scenarios are (a type of sectors in the national economy (public vs. private, (b type of communications technology (wireline vs. wireless. The scenarios present possible futures.

  10. SITE-94. Scenario development FEP audit list preparation: methodology and presentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenhouse, M.; Chapman, N.; Sumerling, T.

    1993-04-01

    This report concerns a study which is part of the SKI performance assessment project SITE-94. SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. Other important elements of SITE-94 are the development of a practical and defensible methodology for defining, constructing and analyzing scenarios, the development of approaches for treatment of uncertainties , evaluation of canister integrity, and the development and application of an appropriate quality assurance plan for performance assessments

  11. Open Scenario Study, Phase II Report: Assessment and Development of Approaches for Satisfying Unclassified Scenario Needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Oracle) • Mysql (Open Source) • Other What application server software will be needed? • Application Server • CGI PHP /Perl (Open Source...CGI PHP /Perl (Other Open Source software) • ColdFusion (Adobe) • OAS Application Server (Oracle) • .ASP/.NET (Microsoft) • Inmagic DB/textworks I...developers around the world. 9 • Ms Windows® – Microsoft Windows operating system for personal computers • MySQL (Open Source) - the most reliable

  12. Developing Simulated Cyber Attack Scenarios Against Virtualized Adversary Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    enclave, as shown in Figure 11, is a common design for many secure networks. Different variations of a cyber-attack scenario can be rehearsed based...achieved a greater degree of success against multiple variations of an enemy network. E. ATTACK TYPES A primary goal of this thesis is to define and...2013. [33] R. Goldberg , “Architectural principles for virtual computer systems,” Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Comp. Sci., Harvard Univ., Cambridge

  13. The Use of Professionalism Scenarios in the Medical School Interview Process: Faculty and Interviewee Perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Kleshinski, MD

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the impact of professionalism scenarios on the medical school admissions process from applicant and faculty perspectives. Specifically, do completing professionalism scenarios as part of the medical school interview process have an impact on both the interviewee’s and the faculty’s perception of the process and outcome?Method: Ninety-one faculty interviewed 199 applicants from January 2007 through April 2007 at The University of Toledo College of Medicine. All applicants were asked one standard professionalism scenario in each of their two interviews. A total of six scenarios were used for the entire interviewing season in rotation every two months. A survey was administered by an admissions office staff member to both the interviewed applicants as well as faculty who conducted interviews about how these scenarios impacted their interview experience.Results: Asking applicants to respond to professionalism scenarios during the interview was described as having a positive influence on their interview experience. This was also associated with leaving an impression on the applicant about what our institution values in its students and contributed an element of personal reflection about what will be expected of them in the medical profession. Applicants more often reported that asking questions about professionalism was an important aspect of the interview than did faculty. Overall, there was an association between the interviewer’s perception of the applicant’s response and the interviewer’s assessment of professionalism.Conclusions: Professionalism scenarios can be a worthwhile tool for use in the admissions process. The interview process should encourage participation from faculty who value this as an important component in the evaluation of an applicant. Determinants of faculty perception of the role of assessing professionalism in the interview process should be investigated in future

  14. Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

  15. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  16. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (PPGIEN/IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, E.R. de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  17. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, V.M.; Lima, Z.R. de; Andrade, E.R. de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a RDD involving cesium-137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HOTSPOT 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  18. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de; Andrade, Edson Ramos de

    2017-01-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  19. Assessment actions and communication of solid cancer development risk in scenarios RDD based on computational simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bulhosa, Valquiria Miranda; Lima, Zelmo R. de, E-mail: valquiriambrj@gmail.com, E-mail: zelmolima@yahoo.com.br [Instituto de Engenharia Nuclear (IEN/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Andrade, Edson Ramos de, E-mail: fisica.dna@gmail.com [Instituto Militar de Engenharia (IME), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2017-07-01

    The complex scenario involving the disposal of radioactive material into the environment can lead to population exposure and serious issues with its unfolding events. In this context, a methodology capable of providing useful basic information, with the least amount of scenario-specific-information, for immediate and future risk assessment is of relevance. For this work a simulation of a Radiological Dispersal Devices involving cesium 137 will be considered, coupling the results of the Health Physics Code System for Evaluating Accidents Involving Radioactive Materials software (HotSpot 3.0.3) and the epidemiological equations of the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF) to support the decision making process. The results of the simulation will be used to help quantify the number of general individuals allocated to areas of higher radiological risk and of interest to medical care by providing the scientific data to develop a more appropriate approach to risk and its communication to the affected population. (author)

  20. Chemical aspects of cylinder corrosion and a scenario for hole development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barber, E.J. [Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1991-12-31

    In June 1990, two cylinders in the depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder storage yards at Portsmouth were discovered to have holes in their walls at the valve-end stiffening ring at a point below the level of the gas-solid interface of the UF{sub 6}. The cylinder with the larger hole, which extended under the stiffening ring, was stacked in a top row 13 years ago. The cylinder with the smaller hole had been stacked in a bottom row 4 years ago. The lifting lugs of the adjacent cylinders pointed directly at the holes. A Cylinder Investigating Committee was appointed to determine the cause or causes of the holes and to assess the implications of these findings. This report contains a listing of the chemically related facts established by the Investigating Committee with the cooperation of the Operations and Technical Support Divisions at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant, the scenario developed to explain these findings and some implications of this scenario. In summary, the interrelated reactions of water, solid UF{sub 6} and iron presented by R. L. Ritter are used to develop a scenario which explains the observations and deductions made during the investigation. The chemical processes are intimately related to the course of the last three of the four stages of hole development. A simple model is proposed which permits semiquantitative prediction of such information as the HF loss rates as a function of time, the rate of hole enlargement, the time to hydrolyze a cylinder of UF{sub 6} and the approximate size of the hole. The scenario suggests that the environmental consequences associated with a developing hole in a depleted UF{sub 6} cylinder are minimal for the first several years but will become significant if too many years pass before detection. The overall environmental picture is presented in more detail elsewhere.

  1. Supporting conceptual product design by hybrid simulation of use processes with scenario structures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Vegte, W.F.; Horváth, I.

    2007-01-01

    The approach described in this paper aims to offer designers a new way to investigate use processes of products by integrating scenarios of expected user behaviour with simulations of physical artefact behaviour. Use is considered a key process in the life cycle of a product, being the phase in

  2. Scenarios of socio-economic and energy development of the country up to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsvetanov, P.

    1990-01-01

    The scenarios description is given as the first stage of a procedure of an energy-economy interrelations dynamics study, the other two stages being the formulation and the analysis of the development variants. The scenarios reflect quantitatively the policies and the international conditions for the socio-economic, energy demand and energy supply developments of the country. Two economic development scenarios ('high' - official macroeconomic views and 'low' - economic restructuring and decrease of energy intensity) hierarchically preside over the two corresponding energy demand scenarios of different technological evolutions ('traditional' and 'energy efficiency' oriented one) in the industry, the transport and the domestic and services sectors. Four energy supply system scenarios follow, corresponding to different approaches in the development of the energy conversion technologies and energy carriers, thus constituting a scenario tree of the studies. 16 refs., 2 figs., 7 tab., 1 ann. (R.Ts.)

  3. Developing a Robust Strategy Map in Balanced Scorecard Model Using Scenario Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa Jafari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The key to successful strategy implementation in an organization is for people in the organization to understand it, which requires the establishment of complicated but vital processes whereby the intangible assets are converted into tangible outputs. In this regard, a strategy map is a useful tool that helps execute this difficult task. However, such maps are typically developed based on ambiguous cause-effect relationships that result from the extrapolation of past data and flawed links with possible futures. However, if the strategy map is a mere reflection of the status quo but not future conditions and does not embrace real-world uncertainties, it will endanger the organization since it posits that the current situation will continue. In order to compensate for this deficiency, the environmental scenarios affecting an organization were identified in the present study. Then the strategy map was developed in the form of a scenario-based balanced scorecard. Besides, the effect of environmental changes on the components of the strategy map was investigated using the strategy maps illustrated over time together with the corresponding cash flow vectors. Subsequently, a method was proposed to calculate the degree of robustness of every component of the strategy map for the contingency of every scenario. Finally, the results were applied to a post office.

  4. Development of a Tsunami Scenario Database for Marmara Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Necmioglu, Ocal; Meral Ozel, Nurcan

    2016-04-01

    Due to the very short travel times in Marmara Sea, a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) has to be strongly coupled with the earthquake early warning system and should be supported with a pre-computed tsunami scenario database to be queried in near real-time based on the initial earthquake parameters. To address this problem, 30 different composite earthquake scenarios with maximum credible Mw values based on 32 fault segments have been identified to produce a detailed scenario database for all possible earthquakes in the Marmara Sea with a tsunamigenic potential. The bathy/topo data of Marmara Sea was prepared using GEBCO and ASTER data, bathymetric measurements along Bosphorus, Istanbul and Dardanelle, Canakkale and the coastline digitized from satellite images. The coarser domain in 90m-grid size was divided into 11 sub-regions having 30m-grid size in order to increase the data resolution and precision of the calculation results. The analyses were performed in nested domains with numerical model NAMIDANCE using non-linear shallow water equations. In order to cover all the residential areas, industrial facilities and touristic locations, more than 1000 numerical gauge points were selected along the coasts of Marmara Sea, which are located at water depth of 5 to 10m in finer domain. The distributions of tsunami hydrodynamic parameters were investigated together with the change of water surface elevations, current velocities, momentum fluxes and other important parameters at the gauge points. This work is funded by the project MARsite - New Directions in Seismic Hazard assessment through Focused Earth Observation in the Marmara Supersite (FP7-ENV.2012 6.4-2, Grant 308417 - see NH2.3/GMPV7.4/SM7.7) and supported by SATREPS-MarDim Project (Earthquake and Tsunami Disaster Mitigation in the Marmara Region and Disaster Education in Turkey) and JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency). The authors would like to acknowledge Ms. Basak Firat for her assistance in

  5. Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

    2014-01-01

    to infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU......The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising...... of the electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related...

  6. Developing High-Fidelity Health Care Simulation Scenarios: A Guide for Educators and Professionals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alinier, Guillaume

    2011-01-01

    The development of appropriate scenarios is critical in high-fidelity simulation training. They need to be developed to address specific learning objectives, while not preventing other learning points from emerging. Buying a patient simulator, finding a volunteer to act as the patient, or even obtaining ready-made scenarios from another simulation…

  7. Integrated scenarios of regional development in Ceará and Piauí

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.; Fuhr, Dagmar; Gaiser, T.; Krol, M.S; Frischkorn, H.; de Araújo, J.C.

    2003-01-01

    Scenarios of the future are an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid Northeastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative-quantitative scenarios which show potential developments of

  8. The impact of power negotiations on nursing students learning processes in simulation scenario debriefing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Anne; Topperzer, Martha; Sejr Olsen, Pernille

    element to obtain critical reflection and learning (3). During debriefing students and facilitators jointly explore what happened in the scenario, and what should be focus of the prospective learning process (4). The aim of this paper is to explore how the negotiations of power (5) in the simulation...... scenario debriefing have an impact on the learning process for novice nursing students. References: Zapko et al 2015: Interdisciplinary Disaster Drill Simulation: Laying the Groundwork for further Research. Nurse Education Perspective Nov. Dec. 36(6):379-82 Motola et al 2013: Simulation in healthcare......Clinical simulation in nursing improves student`s ability to critical thinking, clinical judgement and clinical decision- making(1). The key elements to success are planning, pre- briefing, engagement, a realistic scenario with interruptions and debriefing (2). Debriefing is highlighted as the key...

  9. Collection and Processing of Data from Wrist Wearable Devices in Heterogeneous and Multiple-User Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco de Arriba-Pérez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Over recent years, we have witnessed the development of mobile and wearable technologies to collect data from human vital signs and activities. Nowadays, wrist wearables including sensors (e.g., heart rate, accelerometer, pedometer that provide valuable data are common in market. We are working on the analytic exploitation of this kind of data towards the support of learners and teachers in educational contexts. More precisely, sleep and stress indicators are defined to assist teachers and learners on the regulation of their activities. During this development, we have identified interoperability challenges related to the collection and processing of data from wearable devices. Different vendors adopt specific approaches about the way data can be collected from wearables into third-party systems. This hinders such developments as the one that we are carrying out. This paper contributes to identifying key interoperability issues in this kind of scenario and proposes guidelines to solve them. Taking into account these topics, this work is situated in the context of the standardization activities being carried out in the Internet of Things and Machine to Machine domains.

  10. Collection and Processing of Data from Wrist Wearable Devices in Heterogeneous and Multiple-User Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Arriba-Pérez, Francisco; Caeiro-Rodríguez, Manuel; Santos-Gago, Juan M

    2016-09-21

    Over recent years, we have witnessed the development of mobile and wearable technologies to collect data from human vital signs and activities. Nowadays, wrist wearables including sensors (e.g., heart rate, accelerometer, pedometer) that provide valuable data are common in market. We are working on the analytic exploitation of this kind of data towards the support of learners and teachers in educational contexts. More precisely, sleep and stress indicators are defined to assist teachers and learners on the regulation of their activities. During this development, we have identified interoperability challenges related to the collection and processing of data from wearable devices. Different vendors adopt specific approaches about the way data can be collected from wearables into third-party systems. This hinders such developments as the one that we are carrying out. This paper contributes to identifying key interoperability issues in this kind of scenario and proposes guidelines to solve them. Taking into account these topics, this work is situated in the context of the standardization activities being carried out in the Internet of Things and Machine to Machine domains.

  11. Long-pulse hybrid scenario development in JT-60U

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyama, N.; Isayama, A.; Matsunaga, G.; Suzuki, T.; Takenaga, H.; Sakamoto, Y.; Nakano, T.; Kamada, Y.; Ide, S.

    2009-01-01

    The performance and sustained duration of long-pulse discharges for the 'ITER hybrid scenario' have been improved in JT-60U. The modification of power supply systems for three perpendicular neutral beam (NB) injections provides a long period of central NB heating up to 30 s, which is important for keeping the internal transport barrier (ITB). The peaked density profile in the core plasma can be maintained even when the density at the pedestal increased in the latter phase of the discharge due to the increase in the divertor recycling. Then, the peaked pressure profile attributed to the ITB can be kept constant through the discharge with the peaked power deposition profile. In these long-pulse discharges, MHD activity with toroidal mode number n = 1 is observed even when neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) are suppressed. When the amplitude of the mode in the peripheral region becomes large, the pedestal pressure is degraded. The mode amplitude is sensitive to the toroidal magnetic field (or edge safety factor) and heating power. After the adjustment of the toroidal magnetic field so as to reduce the mode amplitude, a high normalized beta (β N ) of 2.6 and a high thermal confinement enhancement factor (H H98(y,2) > 1) are sustained for 25 s (∼14τ R , where τ R is the current diffusion time) under the ITER relevant small toroidal rotation condition. The peaked pressure profile in low safety factor plasma (safety factor at 95% flux surface q 95 ∼ 3.2) is stable against NTMs up to β N ∼ 3. A high β N H H98(y,2) of 2.6 gives a high G-factor ( β N H H98(y,2) /q 95 2 ) of 0.25 and a peaked pressure profile gives a large bootstrap current fraction (f BS > 0.43).

  12. Methods for Developing Multiscale Participatory Scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Biggs, R.; Zurek, M.

    2007-01-01

    Scenario planning is increasingly recognized as a useful tool for exploring change in social-ecological systems on decadal to centennial time horizons. In environmental decision making, scenario development tends to include participatory methods for engaging stakeholders and is conducted at multiple

  13. Integrated Scenarios of Regional Development in Two Semi-Arid States of North-Eastern Brazil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Döll, Petra; Krol, Martinus S.

    2002-01-01

    Scenario analysis of the future is an important tool for supporting sustainability-oriented regional planning. To assist regional planning in two federal states in semi-arid North-eastern Brazil, Ceará and Piauí, we developed integrated qualitative¿quantitative scenarios that show potential

  14. Population and development scenarios for EU neighbor countries in the South and East Mediterranean region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groenewold, W.G.F.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents four population and development scenarios for 11 South and East Mediterranean countries (SEMC) for the period 2010-2050. Focus of analysis of scenario results is on working age population prospects, economic consequences, migration pressure in four migrant-sending SEMCs (Algeria,

  15. Model-based scenarios for rural electrification in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, B. van; Schers, J.; Vuuren, D.P. van

    2012-01-01

    Promoting access to modern energy forms in developing countries to replace traditional fuels is high on the political agenda. This paper describes the development and application of a global model for rural electrification. The model is used to assess future trends in electrification, and the

  16. Development of water use scenarios as a tool for adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Jacinto

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerability of its activities to climate change. We used the four scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2 adopted in the Special Report Emissions Scenarios (SRES of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to produce local scenarios of water use. Available population SRES for Portugal were downscaled to the study area using a linear approach. Local land use scenarios were produced using the following steps: (1 characterization of the present land use for each municipality of the study area using Corine Land Cover and adaptation of the CLC classes to those used in the SRES; (2 identification of recent tendencies in land use change for the study area; (3 identification of SRES tendencies for land use change in Europe; and (4 production of local scenarios of land use. Water use scenarios were derived considering both population and land use scenarios as well as scenarios of change in other parameters (technological developments, increases in efficiency, climate changes, or political and behavioural changes. The A2 scenario forecasts an increase in population (+16% in the study area while the other scenarios show a reduction in the resident population (−6 to 8%. All scenarios, but especially A1, show a reduction in agricultural area and an increase in urban area. Regardless of the scenario, water use will progressively be reduced until 2100. These reductions are mainly due to increased water use efficiency and the reduction of irrigated land. The results accord with several projects modelling water use at regional and global level.

  17. The development of area wide traffic management scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Zuylen, H.J.; Lu, S.; Li, J.; Yusen, C.

    2014-01-01

    Traffic management in cities with congestion is a big challenge with still unused opportunities. Intersection control is a corner stone but this should be done in an area-wide context. The dominant traffic process on urban roads is the traffic flow on the intersections. Spill back is a most

  18. Development of scenarios of nanotechnologies: pro et contra

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yaskevich, Ya.S.

    2014-01-01

    Rational forms of the relation to nanotechnology allow to include them in an ethic and humanitarian discourse with installation on development of the relevant codes, recommendations, expert conclusions. (authors)

  19. Electric power for a sustainable development. The italian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barabaschi, S.

    1994-01-01

    After a global energy review in the world, this paper presents the italian national energy plan developed during 1990 and 1991. The most significant aspects were focused on decreasing dependence on imported energy and reducing environmental impacts. In conclusion, the author proposes some recommendations, such as a widest international cooperation in research and development in particular for the field of nuclear energy. (TEC). 7 refs., 6 figs

  20. Scenarios constructed for the effects of tectonic processes on the potential nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Borns, D.J.; Fridrich, C.

    1996-10-01

    A comprehensive collection of scenarios is presented that connect initiating tectonic events with radionuclide releases by logical and physically possible combinations or sequences of features, events and processes. The initiating tectonic events include both discrete faulting and distributed rock deformation developed through the repository and adjacent to it, as well as earthquake-induced ground motion and changes in tectonic stress at the site. The effects of these tectonic events include impacts on the engineered-barrier system, such as container rupture and failure of repository tunnels. These effects also include a wide range of hydrologic effects such as changes in pathways and flow rates in the unsaturated and saturated zones, changes in the water-table configuration, and in the development of perched-water systems. These scenarios are intended go guide performance-assessment analyses and to assist principal investigators in how essential field, laboratory, and calculational studies are used. This suite of scenarios will help ensure that all important aspects of the system disturbance related to a tectonic scenario are captured in numerical analyses. It also provides a record of all options considered by project analysts to provide documentation required for licensing agreement. The final portion of this report discusses issues remaining to be addressed with respect to tectonic activity. 105 refs

  1. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, Valesca; Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; van Harten, Willem H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and

  2. Developing human health exposure scenarios for petroleum substances under REACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, M.; De Wilde, P.; Maksimainen, K.; Margary, A.; Money, C.; Pizzella, G.; Svanehav, T.; Tsang, W.; Urbanus, J.; Rohde, A.

    2012-12-15

    This report describes the approaches that were adopted by CONCAWE to prepare the human exposure estimates in the chemical safety assessments of the REACH registration dossiers for petroleum substances based on all applicable regulatory guidance. Separate exposure estimates were developed for workers and for consumers and included inhalation and dermal routes. The complex nature of petroleum substances required various scientifically justified refinements of the regulatory guidance.

  3. A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambhir, Ajay; Schulz, Niels; Napp, Tamaryn; Tong, Danlu; Munuera, Luis; Faist, Mark; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a hybrid modelling approach to assess the future development of China's energy system, for both a “hypothetical counterfactual baseline” (HCB) scenario and low carbon (“abatement”) scenarios. The approach combines a technology-rich integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) of China's energy system with a set of sector-specific, bottom-up, energy demand models for the transport, buildings and industrial sectors developed by the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. By exploring technology-specific solutions in all major sectors of the Chinese economy, we find that a combination of measures, underpinned by low-carbon power options based on a mix of renewables, nuclear and carbon capture and storage, would fundamentally transform the Chinese energy system, when combined with increasing electrification of demand-side sectors. Energy efficiency options in these demand sectors are also important. - Highlights: • Combining energy supply and demand models reveals low-carbon technology choices across China's economy. • China could reduce its CO 2 emissions to close to 3 Gt in 2050, costing around 2% of GDP. • Decarbonising the power sector underpins the energy system transformation. • Electrification of industrial processes, building heating and transport is required. • Energy efficiency across the demand side is also important

  4. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts in the United States: Four Regional Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Keyser, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores-Espino, F. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miles, J. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Zammit, D. [James Madison Univ., Harrisonburg, VA (United States); Loomis, D. [Great Lakes Wind Network, Cleveland, OH (United States)

    2015-02-01

    This report uses the offshore wind Jobs and Economic Development Impacts (JEDI) model and provides four case studies of potential offshore deployment scenarios in different regions of the United States: the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Gulf Coast, and the Mid-Atlantic. Researchers worked with developers and industry representatives in each region to create potential offshore wind deployment and supply chain growth scenarios, specific to their locations. These scenarios were used as inputs into the offshore JEDI model to estimate jobs and other gross economic impacts in each region.

  5. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schreiner, GO

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three...

  6. Greenhouse Gas reduction for scenarios of power sources development of the Republic of Moldova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comendant I.

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available For the new power market conditions, Moldova power sources development options up to 2033 are evaluated, and for the six scenarios selected the greenhouse gas reduction impact is determined.

  7. The role of the state in sport for development: A South African scenario

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The role of the state in sport for development: A South African scenario. ... African Journal for Physical Activity and Health Sciences ... rendered the triangulation of quantitative and qualitative data in terms of 470 interviews; 479 case studies; ...

  8. District-Scale Green Infrastructure Scenarios for the Zidell Development Site, City of Portland

    Science.gov (United States)

    The report outlines technical assistance to develop green infrastructure scenarios for the Zidell Yards site consistent with the constraints of a recently remediated brownfield that can be implemented within a 15-20 year time horizon.

  9. Process control program development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dameron, H.J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper details the development and implementation of a ''Process Control Program'' at Duke Power's three nuclear stations - Oconee, McGuire, and Catawba. Each station is required by Technical Specification to have a ''Process Control Program'' (PCP) to control all dewatering and/or solidification activities for radioactive wastes

  10. Process Performance Measurement for E-Government: A Case Scenario from the German Ministerial Administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Thomas

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available During the last years, the realization of the E-Government driven benefits was in the center of interest at various public administrations. The article at hand outlines a process driven approach for the evaluation of technology-based performance impacts. From the German perspective, existing concepts of performance evaluation are concretized for the case scenario of the German Plan Approval Procedures.

  11. Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H.J.; Dubus, I.G.; Nolan, B.T.; Hollis, J.M.

    2008-01-01

    A climatic classification for Europe suitable for pesticide fate modelling was constructed using a 3-stage process involving the identification of key climatic variables, the extraction of the dominant modes of spatial variability in those variables and the use of k-means clustering to identify regions with similar climates. The procedure identified 16 coherent zones that reflect the variability of climate across Europe whilst maintaining a manageable number of zones for subsequent modelling studies. An analysis of basic climatic parameters for each zone demonstrates the success of the scheme in identifying distinct climatic regions. Objective criteria were used to identify one representative 26-year daily meteorological series from a European dataset for each zone. The representativeness of each series was then verified against the zonal classifications. These new FOOTPRINT climate zones provide a state-of-the-art objective classification of European climate complete with representative daily data that are suitable for use in pesticide fate modelling. - The FOOTPRINT climatic zones provide an objective climatic classification and daily climate series that may be used for the modelling of pesticide fate across Europe

  12. Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

    OpenAIRE

    Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

    2013-01-01

    The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional a...

  13. Brazilian nuclear renaissance in a sustainable development scenario - 097

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, M.S.; Mattos, J.R.L.

    2010-01-01

    Brazil generated 326 TWh of hydroelectric power in 2005, accounting for ∼81% of the electricity production for that year. The 2005 to 2030 projections for the Brazilian development indicate growths from 2,020 kWh to 4,380 kWh in the per capita electricity consumption and from US$4,300 to US$8,950 in the per capita GDP (in market exchange rate and 2005 US$). The consumption of electricity is to grow from 375 TWh in 2005 to 1,030 TWh in 2030. In simple view and without considerations of aspects related with energy efficiency, this growth means 1.8 times the generation capacity of the 20. century should be built along of 25 years of the 21. century. The Brazilian electricity generation will demand all primary sources to meet the foreseen growth of the electricity consumption. As economical, safe and clean primary energy source for electricity generation, the nuclear energy is one option capable of large-scale and short-term deployment in the Brazilian growth of the electricity consumption. The contribution of nuclear generation in the electricity consumption should evolve from the current 2.6% for amounts over 5% in 2030. The perspective of the Brazilian nuclear sector is evolving to be resumed and present an opportunity for pooling and rationalizing the available skills - technical, cultural and human. The role of business opportunities and the future demands in the value chain of nuclear activities are summarized in this document. Institutions of R and D and Brazilian universities play an important role for the formation of new demanded knowledge and human resources. (authors)

  14. ARAMIS project: A comprehensive methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios in process industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delvosalle, Christian; Fievez, Cecile; Pipart, Aurore; Debray, Bruno

    2006-01-01

    In the frame of the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for Industries (ARAMIS) project, this paper aims at presenting the work carried out in the part of the project devoted to the definition of accident scenarios. This topic is a key-point in risk assessment and serves as basis for the whole risk quantification. The first result of the work is the building of a methodology for the identification of major accident hazards (MIMAH), which is carried out with the development of generic fault and event trees based on a typology of equipment and substances. The term 'major accidents' must be understood as the worst accidents likely to occur on the equipment, assuming that no safety systems are installed. A second methodology, called methodology for the identification of reference accident scenarios (MIRAS) takes into account the influence of safety systems on both the frequencies and possible consequences of accidents. This methodology leads to identify more realistic accident scenarios. The reference accident scenarios are chosen with the help of a tool called 'risk matrix', crossing the frequency and the consequences of accidents. This paper presents both methodologies and an application on an ethylene oxide storage

  15. Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect

  16. THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann; Hernelind, Jan

    2010-03-01

    A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code B right. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

  17. THM modelling of buffer, backfill and other system components. Critical processes and scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aakesson, Mattias; Kristensson, Ola; Boergesson, Lennart; Dueck, Ann (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden)); Hernelind, Jan (5T-Engineering AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden))

    2010-03-15

    A number of critical thermo-hydro-mechanical processes and scenarios for the buffer, tunnel backfill and other filling components in the repository have been identified. These processes and scenarios representing different aspects of the repository evolution have been pinpointed and modelled. In total, 22 cases have been modelled. Most cases have been analysed with finite element (FE) calculations, using primarily the two codes Abaqus and Code-Bright. For some cases analytical methods have been used either to supplement the FE calculations or due to that the scenario has a character that makes it unsuitable or very difficult to use the FE method. Material models and element models and choice of parameters as well as presumptions have been stated for all modelling cases. In addition, the results have been analysed and conclusions drawn for each case. The uncertainties have also been analysed. Besides the information given for all cases studied, the codes and material models have been described in a separate so called data report

  18. [New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

    2012-07-01

    With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

  19. Development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, Michael; Tait, Desiree; Thornton, Frances; Edwards, Mark

    2008-11-01

    This paper describes the development and evaluation of a critical care e-learning scenario for student nurses. At present, there are insufficient opportunities in the United Kingdom (UK) for student nurses to experience clinical placements where their skills in care of the critically-ill can be developed. There is therefore a need for new learning materials that help learners recognise the signs of clinical deterioration and rehearse the management of critically-ill patients. One way of meeting this need is by using electronic care scenarios. Several electronic care scenarios have been developed at Swansea University as part of the eWARD project. This article describes the design and evaluation of a critical care scenario that follows the care of a road casualty (John Macadam) after admission to an intensive care unit. The scenario was designed by an advisory team comprising a clinical lecturer and e-learning specialists. After using the scenario, 144 nursing students completed a Web-based questionnaire that collected demographic and attitudinal data for analysis using SPSS. Nursing students had a strongly positive attitude to the scenario with median scores in excess of 20 compared to maxima of 25 for scales measuring ease-of-use, interactivity, realism and confidence. None of the demographic data collected had a significant effect on these attitudes. The positive attitude of student nurses to this scenario strongly supports its use to help learners to (1) acquire knowledge and awareness when real life placements in these settings are not available and (2) extend their knowledge after coming across similar situations in practice.

  20. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    1992-12-31

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

  1. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

  2. Scenario Approach to the Development and Use of Learning Management System in Universities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martyushova Y.G.,

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The article offers a scenario approach to the design of learning management system (LMS structure. It is argued that the LMS structure and it functional components depend on the scenarios of its use in educational process which, in turn, are determined by the type of subject that is based on the main component of education content. There are three categories of the LMS users in the educational process in university: students, teachers, and administrators, and their roles differ from each other. The article provides detailed scenarios of how the LMS is used by various categories of users and describes the structure of the LMS in relation to these scenarios. On the one hand, the LMS represents a structured base of content: that is, it contains theoretical materials as well as tasks and exercises along with certain scales that reflect their difficulty. The weight of these tasks, initially determined by experts, can then be automatically corrected using the methods of mathematical statistics. On the other hand, implementing the described scenarios requires an electronic operating cover of the LMS, among the functions of which is the organization of control and self-checking, as well as providing storage and processing statistics of the LMS use. These statistics should then be automatically turned into the current rating of users which is important for knowledge evaluation and support of learning motivation in students during a semester.

  3. Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

    2017-04-01

    The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

  4. The implications of future building scenarios for long-term building energy research and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flynn, W.T.

    1986-12-01

    This report presents a discussion of alternative future scenarios of the building environment to the year 2010 and assesses the implications these scenarios present for long-term building energy R and D. The scenarios and energy R and D implications derived from them are intended to serve as the basis from which a strategic plan can be developed for the management of R and D programs conducted by the Office of Buildings and Community Systems, US Department of Energy. The scenarios and analysis presented here have relevance not only for government R and D programs; on the contrary, it is hoped that the results of this effort will be of interest and useful to researchers in both private and public sector organizations that deal with building energy R and D. Making R and D decisions today based on an analysis that attempts to delineate the nexus of events 25 years in the future are clearly decisions made in the face of uncertainty. Yet, the effective management of R and D programs requires a future-directed understanding of markets, technological developments, and environmental factors, as well as their interactions. The analysis presented in this report is designed to serve that need. Although the probability of any particular scenario actually occurring is uncertain, the scenarios to be presented are sufficiently robust to set bounds within which to examine the interaction of forces that will shape the future building environment.

  5. Setting UP a decontamination and dismantling (D and D) scenario - methodology and tools developed leopard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pradoura, F.

    2009-01-01

    At the AREVA NC La Hague site, the former nuclear spent fuel reprocessing plant UP2-400 was shutdown on December 30, 2003. Since then, the cleaning up and dismantling activities have been carried by the DV/PRO project, which is the program management organization settled by AREVA NC, for valorization projects. SGN, part of the AREVA NC Engineering Business Unit, operates as the main contractor of the DV/PRO project and provides project management services related to decommissioning and waste management. Hence, SGN is in charge of building D and D's scenarios for all the facilities of the UP2-400 plant, in compliance with safety, technical and financial requirements. Main outputs are logic diagrams, block flow diagrams, wastes and effluents throughputs. In order to meet with AREVA NC's requirements and expectations, SGN developed specific process and tools methods adapted to the scale and complexity of decommissioning a plant with several facilities, with different kind of processes (chemical, mechanical), some of which are in operation and other being dismantled. Considering the number of technical data and inputs to be managed, this methodology leads to complex outputs such as schedules, throughputs, work packages... The development, the maintenance and the modification of these outputs become more and more difficult with the complexity and the size of the plant considered. To cope with these issues, SGN CDE/DEM UP2-400 project team has developed a dedicated tool to assist and optimize in elaborating D and D scenarios. This tool is named LEOPARD (Logiciel d'Elaboration et d'Optimisation des Programmes d'Assainissement Radiologique et de Demantelement) (Software for the Development and Optimization of Radiological Clean up and Dismantling Programs). The availability of this tool allowed the rapid construction of a test case (demonstrator) that has convinced DV/PRO of its numerous advantages and of the future further development potentials. Presentations of LEOPARD

  6. Innovative method of RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klevas, Valentinas; Biekša, Kestutis; Murauskaitė, Lina

    2014-01-01

    Scarcity or abundance of energy resources usually depends on physical and geographical conditions in the region. However, the energy flow in the region also depends on the efficient use of energy resources, the consumption rate of energy and the possibility to use local renewable and non-renewable energy resources. Production, distribution and the use of energy resources in the region are the challenges for central and local government, business and social service, customers and other stakeholders. Development of regional energy economy should be optimized according to the available energy flow in the region using a network system analysis method, which provides solutions for developing sustainable energy economy models. The network system analysis method enables to optimize the use of local and renewable resources at the regional level and reveals available local energy resources. An efficient use of available regional resources and the use of renewable energy sources (RES) should be the main goals for the development of regional energy system. RES can compete with traditional fossil fuel with the condition that all hidden aspects are revealed. The network system analysis method enables to indicate energy flows in the region as well as indicate pros and cons of using renewable energy technologies. - Highlights: • RES integration into the regional energy development scenarios is done. • Innovative process network system (PNS) analysis method is used. • PNS method is used to optimize the use of local and renewable resources. • Analysis of energy flow in region using PNS method is done

  7. A methodology for scenario development based on understanding of long-term evolution of geological disposal systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Ebashi, Takeshi; Ueda, Hiroyoshi; Koyama, Toshihiro; Shiratsuchi, Hiroshi; Yashio, Shoko; Kawamura, Hideki

    2012-01-01

    We have developed a 'hybrid' scenario development method by combining bottom-up and top-down approaches and applied for the case of geological disposal of high-level waste. This approach provides a top-down perspective, by introducing a concept of safety functions for different periods and 'storyboards', which depict repository evolution with time on a range of spatial scales, and a bottom-up perspective, by identifying relationship between processes related to radionuclide migration and safety functions based on feature, event and process (FEP) management. Based on a trial study, we have specified work descriptions for each step of the hybrid scenario development methodology and confirmed that the storyboard provides a baseline and holistic overview for the FEP management and a common platform to involve close interaction with experts in various disciplines to understand the crossover phenomenological processes. We also confirmed that there is no conflict between the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach and the hybrid scenario development work frame fulfils the specified requirements for traceability, comprehensiveness, ease of understanding, integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and applicability to a staged approach to siting. (author)

  8. Introduction to the first international workshop on process management for highly dynamic and pervasive scenarios (PM4HDPS 2008)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leoni, de M.; Dustdar, S.; Hofstede, ter A.H.M.; Ardagna, D.; Mecella, M.; Yang, J.

    2009-01-01

    Nowadays, process management systems (PMSs) are widely used in many business scenarios, e.g. by government agencies, by insurance companies, and by banks. Despite this widespread usage, the typical application of such systems is predominantly in the context of static scenarios, instead of pervasive

  9. Offshore Wind Jobs and Economic Development Impact: Four Regional Scenarios (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tegen, S.

    2014-11-01

    NREL's Jobs and Economic Development Impact (JEDI) Model for Offshore Wind, is a computer tool for studying the economic impacts of fixed-bottom offshore wind projects in the United States. This presentation provides the results of an analysis of four offshore wind development scenarios in the Southeast Atlantic, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico regions.

  10. Impact modelling of water resources development and climate scenarios on Zambezi River discharge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Kling

    2014-07-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Comparisons between historical and future scenarios show that the biggest changes have already occurred. Construction of Kariba and CahoraBassa dams in the mid 1900s altered the seasonality and flow duration curves. Future irrigation development will cause decreases of a similar magnitude to those caused by current reservoir evaporation losses. The discharge is highly sensitive to small precipitation changes and the two climate models used give different signs for future precipitation change, suggestive of large uncertainty. The river basin model and database are available as anopen-online Decision Support System to facilitate impact assessments of additional climate or development scenarios.

  11. Ethicted (evaluation process model to improve personalised ICT services for independent living and active ageing)--future scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kärki, Anne; Sävel, Jaana; Sallinen, Merja; Kuusinen, Jere

    2013-01-01

    ICT innovations are constantly developed, and there is no lack of elderly customers, as the number of the elderly is dramatically increasing. Elderly are willing to use ICT to increase their own safety and social activity, but they need trust on the reliability, accessibility and other ethical aspects of ICT including the maintenance of privacy and self-determination. Ethical standards for ICT are usually not considered. "Ethicted" characterizes an ICT service or product as ethically evaluated. As a standardized procedure, it will not only increase the acceptability of ICT, but also provide services for ICT developers. In the future scenario, ICT under development should be evaluated by using a process model that is specifically built to find the lacks in ethical aspects. The model would then be tested by end-users, the formal and informal care givers, to receive direct feedback for redeveloping solutions. As final outcomes, there should be standards for ICT in elderly care and a service for ICT developers to utilize the evaluation model. This future scenario work included partners from 6 EU member countries. The combination of academic research and industrial/commercial interest of ICT developers should and can bring new value to assistive ICT for elderly care.

  12. Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

    2012-11-15

    With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. The development of English primary care group governance. A scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheaff, R

    1999-01-01

    At present there is a policy vacuum about what English Primary Care Groups' (PCGs) governance will be when they develop into Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). Draft legislation leaves many options open, so PCT governance is likely to 'emerge' as PCTs are created. It also remains uncertain how general practitioners (GPs) will react to the formation of PCTs and how the UK government will then respond in turn. A scenario analysis suggests three possible lines of development. The base (likeliest) scenario predicts a mainly networked form of PCT governance. An alternative scenario is of PCT governance resembling the former National Health Service internal market. A third scenario predicts 'franchise model' PCTs employing some GPs and subcontracting others. To different degrees all three scenarios predict that PCTs will retain elements of networked governance. If it fails to make GPs as accountable to NHS management as the UK government wishes, networked governance may prove only a transitional stage before English PCTs adopt either quasi-market or hierarchical governance.

  14. Development of groundwater pesticide exposure modeling scenarios for vulnerable spring and winter wheat-growing areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Lauren; Winchell, Michael; Peranginangin, Natalia; Grant, Shanique

    2017-11-01

    Wheat crops and the major wheat-growing regions of the United States are not included in the 6 crop- and region-specific scenarios developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) for exposure modeling with the Pesticide Root Zone Model conceptualized for groundwater (PRZM-GW). The present work augments the current scenarios by defining appropriately vulnerable PRZM-GW scenarios for high-producing spring and winter wheat-growing regions that are appropriate for use in refined pesticide exposure assessments. Initial screening-level modeling was conducted for all wheat areas across the conterminous United States as defined by multiple years of the Cropland Data Layer land-use data set. Soil, weather, groundwater temperature, evaporation depth, and crop growth and management practices were characterized for each wheat area from publicly and nationally available data sets and converted to input parameters for PRZM. Approximately 150 000 unique combinations of weather, soil, and input parameters were simulated with PRZM for an herbicide applied for postemergence weed control in wheat. The resulting postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in a theoretical shallow aquifer were ranked to identify states with the largest regions of relatively vulnerable wheat areas. For these states, input parameters resulting in near 90 th percentile postbreakthrough average concentrations corresponding to significant wheat areas with shallow depth to groundwater formed the basis for 4 new spring wheat scenarios and 4 new winter wheat scenarios to be used in PRZM-GW simulations. Spring wheat scenarios were identified in North Dakota, Montana, Washington, and Texas. Winter wheat scenarios were identified in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Colorado. Compared to the USEPA's original 6 scenarios, postbreakthrough average herbicide concentrations in the new scenarios were lower than all but Florida Potato and Georgia Coastal Peanuts of the original scenarios and better

  15. L. monocytogenes in a cheese processing facility: Learning from contamination scenarios over three years of sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rückerl, I; Muhterem-Uyar, M; Muri-Klinger, S; Wagner, K-H; Wagner, M; Stessl, B

    2014-10-17

    The aim of this study was to analyze the changing patterns of Listeria monocytogenes contamination in a cheese processing facility manufacturing a wide range of ready-to-eat products. Characterization of L. monocytogenes isolates included genotyping by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and multi-locus sequence typing (MLST). Disinfectant-susceptibility tests and the assessment of L. monocytogenes survival in fresh cheese were also conducted. During the sampling period between 2010 and 2013, a total of 1284 environmental samples were investigated. Overall occurrence rates of Listeria spp. and L. monocytogenes were 21.9% and 19.5%, respectively. Identical L. monocytogenes genotypes were found in the food processing environment (FPE), raw materials and in products. Interventions after the sampling events changed contamination scenarios substantially. The high diversity of globally, widely distributed L. monocytogenes genotypes was reduced by identifying the major sources of contamination. Although susceptible to a broad range of disinfectants and cleaners, one dominant L. monocytogenes sequence type (ST) 5 could not be eradicated from drains and floors. Significantly, intense humidity and steam could be observed in all rooms and water residues were visible on floors due to increased cleaning strategies. This could explain the high L. monocytogenes contamination of the FPE (drains, shoes and floors) throughout the study (15.8%). The outcome of a challenge experiment in fresh cheese showed that L. monocytogenes could survive after 14days of storage at insufficient cooling temperatures (8 and 16°C). All efforts to reduce L. monocytogenes environmental contamination eventually led to a transition from dynamic to stable contamination scenarios. Consequently, implementation of systematic environmental monitoring via in-house systems should either aim for total avoidance of FPE colonization, or emphasize a first reduction of L. monocytogenes to sites where

  16. National greenhouse gas emissions baseline scenarios. Learning from experiences in developing countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-04-15

    This report reviews national approaches to preparing baseline scenarios of greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. It does so by describing and comparing in non-technical language existing practices and choices made by ten developing countries - Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand and Vietnam. The review focuses on a number of key elements, including model choices, transparency considerations, choices about underlying assumptions and challenges associated with data management. The aim is to improve overall understanding of baseline scenarios and facilitate their use for policy-making in developing countries more broadly. The findings are based on the results of a collaborative project involving a number of activities undertaken by the Danish Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the UNEP Risoe Centre (URC), including a series of workshops on the subject. The ten contributing countries account for approximately 40% of current global GHG emissions - a share that is expected to increase in the future. The breakdown of emissions by sector varies widely among these countries. In some countries, the energy sector is the leading source of emissions; for others, the land-use sector and/or agricultural sector dominate emissions. The report underscores some common technical and financial capacity gaps faced by developing countries when preparing baseline scenarios. It does not endeavour to propose guidelines for preparing baseline scenarios. Rather, it is hoped that the report will inform any future attempts at preparing such kind of guidelines. (Author)

  17. Developing Learning Scenarios for Educational Web Radio: a Learning Design Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Triantafyllou, Evangelia; Liokou, Effrosyni; Economou, Anastasia

    2018-01-01

    schools. In this paper, we present a survey study that aimed to evaluate a Visual Learning Design (VLD) approach for developing educational scenari-os in web radio. The study results indicated that the VLD approach helped teachers to think about the educational aspects of the web radio production...

  18. Stakeholder and expert-guided scenarios for agriculture and landscape development in a groundwater proction area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vejre, Henrik; Vesterager, Jens Peter; Kristensen, Lone Søderkvist

    2011-01-01

    Nitrate and pesticide leaching led to the designation of groundwater protection zones in Denmark. The protective measures in these zones often clash with local interests in agriculture. Scenarios were used to evaluate the development of a groundwater protection zone in a farming area. Stakeholders...

  19. Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadolski, Rob; Slootmaker, Aad; Hummel, Hans

    2009-01-01

    Nadolski, R. J., Slootmaker, A., & Hummel, H. G. K. (2009). Exploring Architectures for Fast and Easy Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation given at Online Educa. December, 3-4, 2009, Berlin, Germany. [For Powerpoint-version of this presentation. Please

  20. Scenarios for the development of the electricity economy in Continental Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutschi, Christoph; Stigler, Heinz; Jagl, Alexander; Nischler, Gernot; Huber, Christoph; Bachhiesl, Udo

    2010-09-15

    ATLANTIS is a multi purpose scenario model for the investigation of effects in the electricity system of continental Europe. The model consists of a physical part for the simulation of power generation and load flow as well as an economic part for the investigation of power markets and the business development of generation and supply companies.

  1. Future waste treatment and energy production – an example of development of joint scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Münster, Marie; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2012-01-01

    Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. The article gives practical examples of how this has been done in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are m...

  2. Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.; Kok, K.

    2015-01-01

    Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted

  3. Listeria monocytogenes in Food-Processing Facilities, Food Contamination, and Human Listeriosis: The Brazilian Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, Anderson Carlos; Woodward, Joshua John; Call, Douglas Ruben; Nero, Luís Augusto

    2017-11-01

    Listeria monocytogenes is a foodborne pathogen that contaminates food-processing environments and persists within biofilms on equipment, utensils, floors, and drains, ultimately reaching final products by cross-contamination. This pathogen grows even under high salt conditions or refrigeration temperatures, remaining viable in various food products until the end of their shelf life. While the estimated incidence of listeriosis is lower than other enteric illnesses, infections caused by L. monocytogenes are more likely to lead to hospitalizations and fatalities. Despite the description of L. monocytogenes occurrence in Brazilian food-processing facilities and foods, there is a lack of consistent data regarding listeriosis cases and outbreaks directly associated with food consumption. Listeriosis requires rapid treatment with antibiotics and most drugs suitable for Gram-positive bacteria are effective against L. monocytogenes. Only a minority of clinical antibiotic-resistant L. monocytogenes strains have been described so far; whereas many strains recovered from food-processing facilities and foods exhibited resistance to antimicrobials not suitable against listeriosis. L. monocytogenes control in food industries is a challenge, demanding proper cleaning and application of sanitization procedures to eliminate this foodborne pathogen from the food-processing environment and ensure food safety. This review focuses on presenting the L. monocytogenes distribution in food-processing environment, food contamination, and control in the food industry, as well as the consequences of listeriosis to human health, providing a comparison of the current Brazilian situation with the international scenario.

  4. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

    2007-01-01

    Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

  5. Development of a safety decision-making scenario to measure worker safety in agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosher, G A; Keren, N; Freeman, S A; Hurburgh, C R

    2014-04-01

    Human factors play an important role in the management of occupational safety, especially in high-hazard workplaces such as commercial grain-handling facilities. Employee decision-making patterns represent an essential component of the safety system within a work environment. This research describes the process used to create a safety decision-making scenario to measure the process that grain-handling employees used to make choices in a safety-related work task. A sample of 160 employees completed safety decision-making simulations based on a hypothetical but realistic scenario in a grain-handling environment. Their choices and the information they used to make their choices were recorded. Although the employees emphasized safety information in their decision-making process, not all of their choices were safe choices. Factors influencing their choices are discussed, and implications for industry, management, and workers are shared.

  6. Future scenarios for the development of nuclear power. How will nuclear power develop over the next twenty to forty years?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pickett, Susan E.

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear power technology has developed significantly over the past 60 years to the point that today it supplies the world with 15% of its electricity; and there are plans for continued development. However, the continued growth of nuclear power is not without challenges. The nuclear industry must remain competitive in the face of challenges ranging from environmental considerations and proliferation concerns to ensuring safe and often transparent operations. Understanding these and other issues, as well as their underlying causes, can help the industry leaders create more robust strategies and effectively implement nuclear fuel cycle decisions. Robust strategies are ones that can be effective even when circumstances change, due to events such as opposition, new scientific information, changes in resource availability, or introduction of competing technologies. Scenario planning is tool which can help planners and decision makers create a strategic conversation about the future and how to manage and plan in a time of accelerated change and complexity. In this paper, scenario planning is introduced and the development of nuclear power is examined against the back drop of four future scenarios, specifically looking at how variations in environmental quality, resource availability, security and proliferation, and safety may affect the development of nuclear power. The scenarios discussed provide a starting point to improve the understanding of issues and opportunities facing the global nuclear power industry and ultimately, to improve strategies for technology development. Such scenarios may be employed as a basis for collaboration and communication amongst the stakeholders involved in the development of nuclear technology. (author)

  7. Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) activities at the Savannah River Site (SRS) begin with the characterization of inactive hazardous, radioactive and mixed waste disposal areas by a combined Resource Conservation Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA) Remedial Investigation (Rl) followed by evaluation of remedial alternatives in a RCRA Corrective Measures Study (CMS)/CERCLA Feasibility Study (FS). A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed during the RFVRI characterization to determine if there are any potential risks to human health or the environment from the waste unit. If it is determined that there is need for remedial action, a Risk Evaluation of Remedial Alternatives (RERA) is performed as part of the CMS/FS to provide a basis for selecting a remedy that is protective of human health and the environment. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFI/RI and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the seeping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using

  8. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  9. Design and development of driving simulator scenarios for road validation studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dols Ruiz, J.F.

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the number of road-based studies using driving simulators is growing significantly. This allows evaluating controlled situations that otherwise would require disproportionate observations in time and/or cost. The Institute of Design and Manufacturing (IDF) of the Polytechnic University of Valencia (UPV) has developed, in collaboration with the Engineering Research Group Highway (GIIC) of the UPV, a low cost simulator that allows rapid implementation and effectively a new methodology for validation studies of different roads through the implementation in the simulator scenarios of existing roads. This methodology allows the development of new scenarios based on the analysis of a layers-file system. Each layer includes different information from the road, such as mapping, geometry, signaling, aerial photos, etc. The creation of the simulated scenario is very fast based on the geometric design software, making it easier to consulting firms using the system that can evaluate and audit a particular route, obtaining reliable conclusions at minimal cost, even if the road is not actually built. This paper describes the basic structure of the layers generated for developing scenarios and guidelines for the implementation thereof. Finally the application of this methodology to a case of success will be described. (Author)

  10. Integrated municipal solid waste scenario model using advanced pretreatment and waste to energy processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Gabriela; Rada, Elena Cristina; Ragazzi, Marco; Mărculescu, Cosmin; Badea, Adrian; Apostol, Tiberiu

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Appropriate solution for MSW management in new and future EU countries. • Decrease of landfill disposal applying an Integrated MSW approach. • Technological impediments and environmental assessment. - Abstract: In this paper an Integrated Municipal Solid Waste scenario model (IMSW-SM) with a potential practical application in the waste management sector is analyzed. The model takes into account quantification and characterization of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) streams from different sources, selective collection (SC), advanced mechanical sorting, material recovery and advanced thermal treatment. The paper provides a unique chain of advanced waste pretreatment stages of fully commingled waste streams, leading to an original set of suggestions and future contributions to a sustainable IMSWS, taking into account real data and EU principles. The selection of the input data was made on MSW management real case studies from two European regions. Four scenarios were developed varying mainly SC strategies and thermal treatment options. The results offer useful directions for decision makers in order to calibrate modern strategies in different realities

  11. Electricity and heat system development scenarios integrated in the energy system sustainable development in Romania in the period 2005 - 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marin, Otilia; Leca, Aureliu

    2004-01-01

    After 50 years of centralized economy, since 1989, Romania faces many challenges related to the internal conditions and to the new trends in energy markets over the world as: the existing low efficiency and availability, fast structural changes; the decentralization and privatization of the energy sector with new structures and entities; integration in EU and NATO structures. At present, with transition from the national vertical integrated monopolies to an open market, the determination of the global optimum development scenario of the power and heat sector becomes more important in order to find the policy which can lead the own strategies of different companies involved on market to a sustainable development of the society. The paper presents four long term development scenarios of the electricity and heat sector quantified from different points of view: technical, economical, environmental, social criteria, security of supply, risk diminishing etc and it continues by determining the long term global optimum development scenario integrated in the sustainable energy system. (authors)

  12. Use of multitemporal InSAR data to develop geohazard scenarios for Bandung, Western Java, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvi, Stefano; Tolomei, Cristiano; Duro, Javier; Pezzo, Giuseppe; Koudogbo, Fifamè

    2015-04-01

    The Greater Bandung metropolitan area is the second largest urban area in Indonesia, with a population of 8.6 million. It is subject to a variety of geohazards: volcanic hazards from seven active volcanoes within a radius of 50 km; high flood hazards, seismic hazard due to crustal active faults, the best known being the 30-km long Lembang fault, 10 km North of the city centre; subsidence hazards due to strong aquifer depletion; landslide hazard in the surrounding high country. In the framework of the FP7 RASOR project, multitemporal satellite SAR data have been processed over Bandung, Western Java. We used the SBAS InSAR technique (Berardino et al., 2002) to process two ALOS-1 datasets, to investigate the various sources of surface deformation acting in the area in the period 2008-2011. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) has also been applied to achieve ground motion measurements with millimetric precision and high accuracy. The PSI processing technique considers a system of points that reflect the radar signal from the satellite continuously through the time. It makes use of differential interferometric phase measurements to generate long term terrain deformation and digital surface model maps. The GlobalSARTM algorithms developed by Altamira Information are applied to COSMO-SkyMed data acquired to measure ground motion over the area of interest. Strong ground displacements (up to 7 cm/yr) due to groundwater abstraction have been measured in the Bandung basin. The identification of long wavelength signals from tectonic sources is difficult due to the limited InSAR coherence outside of the urban environment. Limited deformation is observed also in the Tangkuban Perahu volcano to the north. The spatial and temporal distribution of the ground motion is important supporting information for the generation of long term subsidence and flood hazard scenarios.

  13. Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-12-01

    This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program

  14. Gas-cooled reactor commercialization study: introduction scenario and commercialization analyses for process heat applications. Final report, July 8, 1977--November 30, 1977

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-12-01

    This report identifies and presents an introduction scenario which can lead to the operation of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor demonstration plants for combined process heat and electric power generation applications, and presents a commercialization analysis relevant to the organizational and management plans which could implement a development program.

  15. Nirex methodology for scenario and conceptual model development. An international peer review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-06-01

    Nirex has responsibilities for nuclear waste management in the UK. The company's top level objectives are to maintain technical credibility on deep disposal, to gain public acceptance for a deep geologic repository, and to provide relevant advice to customers on the safety implications of their waste packaging proposals. Nirex utilizes peer reviews as appropriate to keep its scientific tools up-to-date and to periodically verify the quality of its products. The NEA formed an International Review Team (IRT) consisting of four internationally recognised experts plus a member of the NEA Secretariat. The IRT performed an in-depth analysis of five Nirex scientific reports identified in the terms of reference of the review. The review was to primarily judge whether the Nirex methodology provides an adequate framework to support the building of a future licensing safety case. Another objective was to judge whether the methodology could aid in establishing a better understanding, and, ideally, enhance acceptance of a repository among stakeholders. Methodologies for conducting safety assessments include at a very basic level the identification of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the system at hand, their convolution in scenarios for analysis, and the formulation of conceptual models to be addressed through numerical modelling. The main conclusion of the IRT is that Nirex has developed a potentially sound methodology for the identification and analysis of FEPs and for the identification of conceptual model needs and model requirements. The work is still in progress and is not yet complete. (R.P.)

  16. Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

    2007-02-01

    In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

  17. Scenario development and evaluation for the NPP Krsko revised decommissioning program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levanat, I.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

    2004-01-01

    In this first revision, several integrated scenarios of the NPP Krsko dismantling and waste management were developed and analyzed in order to estimate the decommissioning program (DP) costs and to propose an appropriate funding plan. Most dismantling technologies and cost estimates were derived from the original decommissioning plan adopted in 1996. The LILW disposal cost estimates, however, rely on the tunnel type facility design which was developed in Slovenia a few years ago, whereas the SF repository design for this DP was adapted from the Swedish deep disposal concept. The starting assumptions for this DP were that the LILW repository would be licensed by 2013, the NPP would be permanently shut down in 2023, and the SF repository would become available in 2030. The boundary conditions also specified that DP should first re-evaluate the SID strategy from the original plan (Strategy Immediate Dismantling with immediate SF disposal, but also with a long period of on-site decay storage for the activated components, so that it actually terminates only after 96 years), and then modify it to achieve truly prompt decommissioning in which all planned activities should be completed within about 15 years after the NPP shut-down. In addition, the option of SF export to a third country should be introduced in all DP scenarios, as a realistic alternative to SF disposal into the local repository (in Slovenia or in Croatia). And finally, dry storage of SF for some 30 years before disposal or export, in an independent installation on unspecified location, should be evaluated within the DP sensitivity analysis. After a thorough analysis of the original SID strategy, it became clear that substantial modifications would be necessary in order to meet the boundary conditions while complying with the specified design and technologies of the assumed LILW and SF disposal facilities. Therefore, a systematic procedure for development and financial evaluation of feasible scenarios was

  18. Operation room tool handling and miscommunication scenarios: an object-process methodology conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachs, Juan P; Frenkel, Boaz; Dori, Dov

    2014-11-01

    Errors in the delivery of medical care are the principal cause of inpatient mortality and morbidity, accounting for around 98,000 deaths in the United States of America (USA) annually. Ineffective team communication, especially in the operation room (OR), is a major root of these errors. This miscommunication can be reduced by analyzing and constructing a conceptual model of communication and miscommunication in the OR. We introduce the principles underlying Object-Process Methodology (OPM)-based modeling of the intricate interactions between the surgeon and the surgical technician while handling surgical instruments in the OR. This model is a software- and hardware-independent description of the agents engaged in communication events, their physical activities, and their interactions. The model enables assessing whether the task-related objectives of the surgical procedure were achieved and completed successfully and what errors can occur during the communication. The facts used to construct the model were gathered from observations of various types of operations miscommunications in the operating room and its outcomes. The model takes advantage of the compact ontology of OPM, which is comprised of stateful objects - things that exist physically or informatically, and processes - things that transform objects by creating them, consuming them or changing their state. The modeled communication modalities are verbal and non-verbal, and errors are modeled as processes that deviate from the "sunny day" scenario. Using OPM refinement mechanism of in-zooming, key processes are drilled into and elaborated, along with the objects that are required as agents or instruments, or objects that these processes transform. The model was developed through an iterative process of observation, modeling, group discussions, and simplification. The model faithfully represents the processes related to tool handling that take place in an OR during an operation. The specification is at

  19. Scenarios to prioritize observing activities on the North Slope, Alaska in the context of resource development, climate change and socio-economic uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.; Lassuy, D.

    2014-12-01

    The North Slope of Alaska is experiencing rapid changes in response to interacting climate and socioeconomic drivers. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is using scenarios as a tool to identify plausible, spatially explicit future states of resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040. The objective of the scenarios process is to strategically assess research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The participatory scenarios process involved stakeholder input (including Federal, State, local, academic, industry and non-profit representatives) to identify key drivers of change related to resource extraction activities on the North Slope. While climate change was identified as a key driver in the biophysical system, economic drivers related to oil and gas development were also important. Expert-reviewed informational materials were developed to help stakeholders obtain baseline knowledge and stimulate discussions about interactions between drivers, knowledge gaps and uncertainties. Map-based scenario products will allow mission-oriented agencies to jointly explore where to prioritize research investments and address risk in a complex, changing environment. Scenarios consider multidecadal timescales. However, tracking of indicator variables derived from scenarios can lead to important insights about the trajectory of the North Slope social-environmental system and inform management decisions to reduce risk on much shorter timescales. The inclusion of stakeholders helps provide a broad spectrum of expert viewpoints necessary for considering the range of plausible scenarios. A well-defined focal question, transparency in the participation process and continued outreach about the utility and limitations of scenarios are also important components of the scenarios process.

  20. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  1. Journal Article: Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

    2007-04-01

    Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

  2. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  3. Process research and development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickler, D. B.

    1986-01-01

    The following major processes involved in the production of crystalline-silicon solar cells were discussed: surface preparation, junction formation, metallization, and assembly. The status of each of these processes, and the sequence in which these processes are applied, were described as they were in 1975, as they were in 1985, and what they might be in the future.

  4. Processing of gamma irradiated bone allografts for treatment of injuries in a nuclear scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Durgeshwer; Singh, Antaryami; Singh, Rita; Shah, Om

    2014-01-01

    Bone allografts fill an important void in the surgical practice of orthopaedic surgery, and their use to replace and reconstruct musculoskeletal structures following injury or disease has gained increasing acceptance by orthopaedic surgeons. Serious mechanical injuries in a nuclear scenario involving compression, displacement and missile hit will lead to high incidence of various kinds of bone fractures, spinal injuries and joint injuries apart from lethality, lung damage and eardrum rupture. Bone allografts can be employed for repairing fracture defects, filling in destroyed regions of bone, management of open fractures and joint injuries. Autologous bone grafts, though ideal, have the drawback of secondary surgery for autograft retrieval, complications of infection and donor site morbidity. Bone allografts eliminate additional incision necessary for acquiring an autograft and consequently reduce operating time, blood loss as well as hospital and medical costs. However, disease transmission and bacterial infection in bone allograft transplantation is of significant concern. Sterilization by gamma irradiation is a definitive method for eliminating microorganisms and can prevent life-threatening allograft associated infections. The present study was carried out with the aim of bioburden assessment, radiation sterilization and clinical evaluation of bone allografts processed from femoral heads obtained from living donors. Femoral heads were obtained during surgery at Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, SN Medical College, Jodhpur and processed as freeze-dried bone allografts. Bioburden of bone allografts was found to be in the range of 2.26 to 3.59 log CFU/g. Verification dose for different batches of processing was 7.24±1.27 kGy. Radiological data of processed gamma irradiated bone grafts used in clinical cases of trauma surgery was recorded and has shown successful graft incorporation in allogenic recipients. (author)

  5. Developing multinational radioactive waste repositories: Infrastructural framework and scenarios of cooperation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-10-01

    Currently the management of radioactive wastes centres on national strategies for collection, treatment, interim storage and disposal. This tendency to focus exclusively on national strategies reflects the fact that radioactive waste is a sensitive political issue, making cooperation among countries difficult. It is consistent with the accepted principle that a country that enjoys the benefit of nuclear energy, or the utilization of nuclear technology, should also take full responsibility for managing the generated radioactive waste. However, there are countries whose radioactive waste volumes do not easily justify a national repository, and/or countries that do not have the resources or favourable natural conditions for waste disposal to dedicate to a national repository project or would prefer to collaborate in shared initiatives because of their economic advantages. In such cases it may be appropriate for these countries to engage in a multinational collaborative effort to ensure that they have access to a common repository, in order that they can fulfil their responsibilities for their managing wastes safely. In response to requests from several Member States expressing an interest in multinational disposal options, the IAEA produced in 1998 a TECDOC outlining the important factors to be taken into account in the process of realizing such options. These factors include for example, technical (safety), institutional (legal, safeguards), economic (financial) socio-political (public acceptance) and ethical considerations. The present report reviews the work done in the previous study, taking into account developments since its publication as well as current activities in the field of multinational repositories. The report attempts to define the concepts involved in the creation of multinational repositories, to explore the likely scenarios, to examine the conditions for successful implementation, and to point out the benefits and challenges inherent to

  6. Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

    2008-01-01

    The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

  7. Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-12-01

    Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

  8. Development of internal transport barrier scenarios at ITER-relevant high triangularity in JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rimini, F.G.; Becoulet, M.; Giovannozzi, E.; Lomas, P.J.; Tudisco, O.; Alper, B.; Crisanti, F.; Baar, M. de; Luna, E. de La; Vries, P. de; Ekedahl, A.; Hawkes, N.; Huysmans, G.; Litaudon, X.; Parail, V.; Saibene, G.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zastrow, K.D.

    2005-01-01

    The development of scenarios characterized by H-mode confinement and internal transport barriers (ITBs) in high triangularity, δ ∼ 0.4-0.5, discharges is of particular interest for ITER advanced tokamak operation. Previous JET experiments have shown that high triangularity favours H-modes which are ELM-free or develop type I edge localized mode (ELM) activity, which inhibits long lasting ITBs. The recent experiments reported here concentrate on integrated optimization of edge and core conditions. The stability of the edge pedestal was controlled using gas injection, deuterium or light impurities, and plasma current ramps. Both methods yield more ITB-friendly edge pedestal conditions, varying from small type I to type III ELMs and, in extreme cases, resulting in L-mode. In parallel, the conditions for triggering and sustaining ITBs encompassing a large proportion of the plasma volume (outer ITBs) were optimized, as opposed to less performing ITBs located closer to the plasma centre (inner ITB). These plasmas have deeply reversed target current profiles with q min ∼ 3 and a narrow inner ITB, located typically at a small normalized radius ρ E , at q 95 = 7.5, H 89 β N ∼ 3.5-4 and ∼60% of the Greenwald density limit. In summary, a high triangularity scenario has been developed, which combines the desirable characteristics of controlled edge, long lasting wide ITBs and high performance at density higher than the low triangularity JET scenarios

  9. Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

    2017-12-01

    The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

  10. Development of steady-state scenarios compatible with ITER-like wall conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litaudon, X [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Arnoux, G [Association Euratom-CEA, CEA/DSM/DRFC-Cadarache 13108, St Paul Durance (France); Beurskens, M [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)] (and others)

    2007-12-15

    A key issue for steady-state tokamak operation is to determine the edge conditions that are compatible both with good core confinement and with the power handling and plasma exhaust capabilities of the plasma facing components (PFCs) and divertor systems. A quantitative response to this open question will provide a robust scientific basis for reliable extrapolation of present regimes to an ITER compatible steady-state scenario. In this context, the JET programme addressing steady-state operation is focused on the development of non-inductive, high confinement plasmas with the constraints imposed by the PFCs. A new beryllium main chamber wall and tungsten divertor together with an upgrade of the heating/fuelling capability are currently in preparation at JET. Operation at higher power with this ITER-like wall will impose new constraints on non-inductive scenarios. Recent experiments have focused on the preparation for this new phase of JET operation. In this paper, progress in the development of advanced tokamak (AT) scenarios at JET is reviewed keeping this long-term objective in mind. The approach has consisted of addressing various critical issues separately during the 2006-2007 campaigns with a view to full scenario integration when the JET upgrades are complete. Regimes with internal transport barriers (ITBs) have been developed at q{sub 95} {approx} 5 and high triangularity, {delta} (relevant to the ITER steady-state demonstration) by applying more than 30 MW of additional heating power reaching {beta}{sub N} {approx} 2 at B{sub o} {approx} 3.1 T. Operating at higher {delta} has allowed the edge pedestal and core densities to be increased pushing the ion temperature closer to that of the electrons. Although not yet fully integrated into a performance enhancing ITB scenario, Neon seeding has been successfully explored to increase the radiated power fraction (up to 60%), providing significant reduction of target tile power fluxes (and hence temperatures) and

  11. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  12. Experiments to Further the Understanding of the Triple-Alpha Process in Hot Astrophysical Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, N. R.; Greife, U.; Rehm, K. E.; Greene, J.; Henderson, D.; Jiang, C. L.; Kay, B. P.; Lee, H. Y.; Pardo, R.; Teh, K.; Deibel, C. M.; Notani, M.; Marley, S. T.; Tang, X. D.

    2009-01-01

    In astrophysics, the first excited 0 + state of 12 C at 7.654 MeV (Hoyle state) is the most important in the triple-α process for carbon nucleosynthesis. In explosive scenarios like supernovae, where temperatures of several 10 9 K are achieved, the interference of the Hoyle state with the second 0 + state located at 10.3 MeV in 12 C becomes significant. The recent NACRE compilation of astrophysical reaction rates assumes a 2 + resonance at 9.1 MeV for which no experimental evidence exists. Thus, it is critical to explore in more detail the 7-10 MeV excitation energy region, especially the minimum between the two 0 + resonances for carbon nucleosynthesis. The states in 12 C were populated through the β-decay of 12 B and 12 N produced at the ATLAS (Argonne Tandem Linac Accelerator System) in-flight facility. The decay of 12 C into three alphas is detected in a Frisch grid twin ionization chamber, acting as a low-threshold calorimeter. This minimizes the effects of β-summing and allowed us to investigate the minimum above the Hoyle state with much higher accuracy than previously possible. A detailed data analysis will include an R-matrix fit to determine an upper limit on the 2 + resonance width.

  13. Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Dongjin; Choi, Kwangsoon; Yoon, Hyungjoon; Park, Jungsu [KEPCO-E and C, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage.

  14. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T; Tuomenvirta, H [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  15. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H.; Posch, M.

    1995-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  16. The development of climatic scenarios for assessing impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1995-12-31

    There is a growing recognition that mitigation measures for limiting future global changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are unlikely to prevent some changes from occurring. Thus, if climate changes appear to be unavoidable, there is an increased need to evaluate their likely impacts on natural systems and human activities. Most impacts of climate change need to be examined at a regional scale, and their assessment requires up-to-date information on future regional climate changes. Unfortunately, accurate predictions of regional climate are not yet available. Instead, it is customary to construct climatic scenarios, which are plausible representations of future climate based on the best available information. This presentation outlines seven principles of climatic scenario development for impact studies, briefly describing some of the strengths and weaknesses of available methods and then illustrating one approach adopted in Finland

  17. Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rika Harini Irawati

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

  18. Development of safety assessment method for human intrusion scenario in Japan. Part 1. Drilling scenario database for safety assessment of geological disposal (Contract research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagasawa, Hirokazu; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo; Sasaki, Toshihisa

    2010-11-01

    In deep geological disposal or intermediate depth disposal, human intrusion, i.e. accidental excavation or drilling into the disposal site, may make a direct or an indirect effect on the disposal system. Safety assessment method for the human intrusion scenario, that is, the evaluation code of radiological effect from the human intrusion and the data to examine the reduction of the probability of the human intrusion occurring, is essential for the future safety regulation. Assuming that drilling action into the disposal site leads to the human proximity to the radioactive waste or the damage to the barrier system (drilling scenario), we have collected both the data on borehole drilling implemented in Japan and information on actual situation of drilling activities. Based on the data and information, we provide concrete exposure scenarios associated with borehole drilling in the vicinity of the repository and model for estimating the frequency on borehole reaching the depth of repository. The frequency is characterized with the relation to objective of excavation, geographical features, and region in Japan etc. We have developed an assembly of the information mentioned above as database, including the model parameters used in the code to assess radiation dose for drilling scenario. (author)

  19. Silicon web process development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, C. S.; Seidensticker, R. G.; Mchugh, J. P.; Skutch, M. E.; Driggers, J. M.; Hopkins, R. H.

    1981-01-01

    The silicon web process takes advantage of natural crystallographic stabilizing forces to grow long, thin single crystal ribbons directly from liquid silicon. The ribbon, or web, is formed by the solidification of a liquid film supported by surface tension between two silicon filaments, called dendrites, which border the edges of the growing strip. The ribbon can be propagated indefinitely by replenishing the liquid silicon as it is transformed to crystal. The dendritic web process has several advantages for achieving low cost, high efficiency solar cells. These advantages are discussed.

  20. Nuclear energy development in the 21st century: Global scenarios and regional trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) was launched in 2000, on the basis of a resolution of the IAEA General Conference (GC(44)/RES/21). INPRO helps ensure that sustainable nuclear energy is available in the twenty-first century and seeks to bring together all interested Member States - both technology holders and technology users - to consider joint actions to achieve desired innovations. As of July 2010, 30 countries and the European Commission are members of INPRO. Programme Area B of INPRO, Global Vision - Scenarios and Pathways to Sustainable Nuclear Power Development, is aimed at providing a better understanding of the role of nuclear energy in the context of long term sustainable development. Its objective is to develop global and regional nuclear energy scenarios on the basis of a scientific-technical pathway analysis that lead to a global vision on sustainable nuclear energy development in the twenty-first century, and to support Member States in working towards that vision. This report presents the results of a study undertaken under Programme Area B in INPRO on Nuclear Energy Development in the Twenty-first Century: Global Scenarios and Regional Trends Studies on Nuclear Capacity Growth and Material Flow between Regions. The report does not develop a global vision for nuclear deployment per se, but presents a limited set of technical scenarios of nuclear deployment and considers their implications. It considers a global energy supply system composed of several reactor and fuel cycle types available today and of fast reactors that may be developed in the future to illustrate a possible modelling approach to identify the potential role of interregional transfer of nuclear fuel resources in supporting the global growth of nuclear energy. The study was performed with the participation of sixteen experts from nine INPRO Member States and included a dynamic simulation of material flows in nuclear energy systems using

  1. Development of burning plasma and advanced scenarios in the DIII-D tokamak

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luce, T.C.

    2005-01-01

    Significant progress in the development of burning plasma scenarios, steady-state scenarios at high fusion performance, and basic tokamak physics has been made by the DIII-D Team. Discharges similar to the ITER baseline scenario have demonstrated normalized fusion performance nearly 50% higher than required for Q = 10 in ITER, under stationary conditions. Discharges that extrapolate to Q ∼ 10 for longer than one hour in ITER at reduced current have also been demonstrated in DIII-D under stationary conditions. Proof of high fusion performance with full noninductive operation has been obtained. Underlying this work are studies validating approaches to confinement extrapolation, disruption avoidance and mitigation, tritium retention, ELM avoidance, and operation above the no-wall pressure limit. In addition, the unique capabilities of the DIII-D facility have advanced studies of the sawtooth instability with unprecedented time and space resolution, threshold behavior in the electron heat transport, and rotation in plasmas in the absence of external torque. (author)

  2. Uranium processing developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.Q.

    1977-01-01

    The basic methods for processing ore to recover the contained uranium have not changed significantly since the 1954-62 period. Improvements in mill operations have been the result of better or less expensive reagents, changes in equipment, and in the successful resolvement of many environmental matters. There is also an apparent trend toward large mills that can profitably process lower grade ores. The major thrust in the near future will not be on process technology but on the remaining environmental constraints associated with milling. At this time the main ''spot light'' is on tailings dam and impoundment area construction and reclamation. Plans must provide for an adequate safety factor for stability, no surface or groundwater contamination, and minimal discharge of radionuclides to unrestricted areas, as may be required by law. Solution mining methods must also provide for plans to restore the groundwater back to its original condition as defined by local groundwater regulations. Basic flowsheets (each to finished product) plus modified versions of the basic types are shown

  3. Uncertainties in Amazon Hydropower Development: Risk Scenarios and Environmental Issues around the Belo Monte Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon region is the final frontier and central focus of Brazilian hydro development, which raises a range of environmental concerns. The largest project in the Amazon is the planned Belo Monte Complex on the Xingu river. If constructed it will be the second biggest hydroelectric plant in Brazil, third largest on earth. In this study, we analyse the private and social costs, and benefits of the Belo Monte project. Furthermore, we present risk scenarios, considering fluctuations in the project’s feasibility that would result from variations in total costs and power. For our analysis, we create three scenarios. In the first scenario Belo Monte appears feasible, with a net present value (NPV in the range of US$670 million and a rate of return in excess of the 12% discount rate used in this analysis. The second scenario, where we varied some of the project costs and assumptions based on other economic estimates, shows the project to be infeasible, with a negative NPV of about US$3 billion and external costs around US$330 million. We also conducted a risk analysis, allowing variation in several of the parameters most important to the project’s feasibility. The simulations brought together the risks of cost overruns, construction delays, lower-than-expected generation and rising social costs. The probability of a positive NPV in these circumstances was calculated to be just 28%, or there is a 72% chance that the costs of the Belo Monte dam will be greater than the benefits. Several WCD recommendations are not considered in the project, especially those related to transparency, social participation in the discussion, economic analysis and risk assessment, and licensing of the project. This study underscores the importance of forming a participatory consensus, based on clear, objective information, on whether or not to build the Belo Monte dam.

  4. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  5. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa M Adams

    Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

  6. Development of predictive weather scenarios for early prediction of rice yield in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Y.; Cho, J.; Jung, I.

    2017-12-01

    International grain prices are becoming unstable due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather phenomena caused by climate change. Early prediction of grain yield using weather forecast data is important for stabilization of international grain prices. The APEC Climate Center (APCC) is providing seasonal forecast data based on monthly climate prediction models for global seasonal forecasting services. The 3-month and 6-month seasonal forecast data using the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique are provided in their own website, ADSS (APCC Data Service System, http://adss.apcc21.org/). The spatial resolution of seasonal forecast data for each individual model is 2.5°×2.5°(about 250km) and the time scale is created as monthly. In this study, we developed customized weather forecast scenarios that are combined seasonal forecast data and observational data apply to early rice yield prediction model. Statistical downscale method was applied to produce meteorological input data of crop model because field scale crop model (ORYZA2000) requires daily weather data. In order to determine whether the forecasting data is suitable for the crop model, we produced spatio-temporal downscaled weather scenarios and evaluated the predictability by comparison with observed weather data at 57 ASOS stations in South Korea. The customized weather forecast scenarios can be applied to various application fields not only early rice yield prediction. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development (Project No: PJ012855022017)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

  7. Africa energy future: Alternative scenarios and their implications for sustainable development strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouedraogo, Nadia S.

    2017-01-01

    The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is of prime importance in Africa due to the steady increase in energy requirements, the non-availability of sufficient resources, the high dependence on fossil-fuels to meet these requirements, and the global concerns over the energy-induced environmental issues. This paper is concerned with modelling possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions. Future energy demand is forecasted based on socio-economic variables such as gross domestic product, income per capita, population, and urbanisation. The Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System (LEAP) modelling framework is employed to analyse and project energy demand and the related emissions under alternative strategies for the period of 2010–2040. Results of scenarios including business-as-usual (BAU) policies, moderate energy access and accelerate energy access policies, renewable energies promotion and energy efficiency policies and their environmental implications are provided. The study provides some policy insights and identifies synergies and trade-offs relating to the potential for energy policies to promote universal energy access, enable a transition to renewable energy, and mitigate climate change for a sustainable development. - Highlights: • Possible future paths for Africa's energy future and the related emissions are modelled. • Scenarios using an adaptation of Schwartz's scenario approach, under LEAP are developed. • Under the current energy policies, the universal access to modern energy will not be met by 2030. • Policies to accelerate the changes in energy structure are required for sustainable development. • Investing in Energy efficient strategies has emerged as one of the best solution.

  8. Leaf development of cultivated rice and weedy red rice under elevated temperature scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Streck,Nereu A.; Uhlmann,Lilian O.; Gabriel,Luana F.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to simulate leaf development of cultivated rice genotypes and weedy red rice biotypes in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. A leaf appearance (LAR) model adapted for rice was used to simulate the accumulated leaf number, represented by the Haun Stage, from crop emergence to flag leaf appearance (EM-FL). Three cultivated rice genotypes and two weedy red rice biotypes in six emergence dates were used. The LAR model was run for each emergence dat...

  9. Prototype Development Capabilities of 3D Spatial Interactions and Failures During Scenario Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steven Prescott; Ramprasad Sampath; Curtis Smith; Tony Koonce

    2014-09-01

    Computers have been used for 3D modeling and simulation, but only recently have computational resources been able to give realistic results in a reasonable time frame for large complex models. This report addressed the methods, techniques, and resources used to develop a prototype for using 3D modeling and simulation engine to improve risk analysis and evaluate reactor structures and components for a given scenario. The simulations done for this evaluation were focused on external events, specifically tsunami floods, for a hypothetical nuclear power facility on a coastline.

  10. Evaluating the enablers in solar power developments in the current scenario using fuzzy DEMATEL

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luthra, Sunil; Govindan, Kannan; Kharb, Ravinder K.

    2016-01-01

    Determining solar power initiatives and developments for a country as large as India is difficult due to the involvement of different enablers. The decisions of these enablers will influence the formulation of strategies to encourage solar power development in India. The present research work...... critically analyzes Indian solar power developments to recognize and to evaluate key enablers that will encourage greater usage in Indias current scenario. A literature review that explores the Indian solar power sector is included, with a focus on need potential, and an examination of the key enablers....... This work identifies sixteen solar power enablers based on relevant literature and experts inputs. To evaluate and to categorize the recognized solar power development key enablers, a fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based methodology is utilized. The fuzzy DEMATEL approach...

  11. Indian uranium scenario and a new process technology for alkaline leaching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suri, A.K.; Ghosh, S.K.; Padmanabhan, N.P.H.

    2008-01-01

    The growing demand of uranium for the nuclear power reactors in the country necessitates maximal utilization of the indigenously available uranium resources. In addition to the single operating uranium mine and the mill at Jaduguda, new mines need to be opened to meet the requirements. However, for the exploitation of the various uranium deposits no single elixir process technology is available and needs to necessarily be developed based on the uranium and gangue mineralogy. One such challenge was development of techno-economic process for exploitation of a reasonably vast deposit at Tummalapalle, Andhra Pradesh. The ore characteristics are much different from that of Jaduguda ore and required alkaline pressure leaching technique to bring the uranium values from the ore into solution. Based on the laboratory and pilot plant studies a working flow sheet has been developed and this paper describes the challenges and how they were tackled. (author)

  12. The processes of strategy development

    OpenAIRE

    Bailey, Andy; Johnson, Gerry

    1995-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the processes by which strategy is developed within organisations. It builds on research into the nature of strategy development being undertaken within the Centre for Strategic Management and Organisational Change at Cranfield School of Management. Initially the process of strategy development is discussed, a number of explanations of the process are presented and an integrated framework is developed. This framework is subsequently used to illustra...

  13. Alternative co-digestion scenarios for efficient fixed-dome reactor biomethanation processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fotidis, Ioannis; Laranjeiro, Tiago; Angelidaki, Irini

    2016-01-01

    where low-tech reactors have been abandoned. Thus, the aims of this study were: a) to identify and evaluate alternative biomasses as anaerobic digestion substrates at a remote rural area site in India; b) to propose an efficient continuous biomethanation scenario for low-tech reactors; c) to assess......-digestion scenario with 45% and 13% higher energy recovery from biomasses' utilization and 69% and 25% less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, compared to R30 and R45, respectively. These results indicate that it is possible to operate efficiently low-tech biogas reactors with utilized biomasses as anaerobic digestion...

  14. PSE in Pharmaceutical Process Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Cervera Padrell, Albert Emili; Woodley, John

    2011-01-01

    The pharmaceutical industry is under growing pressure to increase efficiency, both in production and in process development. This paper will discuss the use of Process Systems Engineering (PSE) methods in pharmaceutical process development, and searches for answers to questions such as: Which PSE...

  15. Development of internal transport barrier scenarios at ITER-relevant high triangularity in Jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rimini, F.G.; Becoulet, M.; Ekedahl, A.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Litaudon, X. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d' Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee; Giovannozzi, E.; Tudisco, O.; Crisanti, F. [Association Euratol/ENEA/CNR sulla Fusione, Frascali, Rome (Italy); Lomas, P.J.; Alper, B.; Hawkes, N.; Parail, V.; Zastrow, K.D. [Euratom/UKAEA Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon (United Kingdom); Baar, M. de; Vries, P. de [Association Euratom-Fom, TEC Cluster, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); La Luna, E. de [Association Euratom-Ciemat, Madrid (Spain); Saibene, G. [EFDA CSU, Garching (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    The development of ITB s(Internal Transport Barrier) scenarios in high triangularity discharges is of particular interest for ITER advanced tokamak operation. Previous JET experiments have shown that high triangularity favours ELM (Edge Localized Mode)-Free or type I ELMs, which inhibit long lasting ITBs. The recent experiments reported here concentrate on integrated optimisation of edge and core conditions. Edge pedestal was controlled using gas injection, Deuterium or light impurities, and plasma current ramps. Both methods yield more ITB-friendly edge pedestal conditions, varying from small type I to type III ELMs and, in extreme cases, to L-mode edge. In parallel, the conditions for triggering and sustaining a wide ITB were optimised. This plasmas have deeply reversed target current profiles with g{sub min} 3. A narrow inner ITB, located in the reversed shear region, is routinely observed. Large radius ITBs are only triggered when the input power exceeds 20-22 MW, but they do not usually survive the transition into H-mode. The best results, in terms of sustained high performance, have been obtained with Neon injection: a wide ITB is triggered during the phase with L-mode edge and survives into H-mode for about 2 s at H{sub 89}{beta}{sub N} {approx} 3.5 and {approx} 60% of the Greenwald density limit. In summary, a high triangularity scenario has been developed, which combines the desirable I characteristics of controlled edge, long lasting wide ITBs and high performance at density higher than the low triangularity JET scenarios. (authors)

  16. Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, E.R. Sr.

    1991-01-01

    Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

  17. Structural change in Europe's gas markets: three scenarios for the development of the European gas market to 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, A.; Bowitz, E.; Roland, K.

    2000-01-01

    Against the background of the European Union's Gas Directive, and the emergence of new players and markets in Europe's gas sector, this paper explores how company actions could shape the future for the gas industry. Starting with an examination of company strategies this paper develops three scenarios for the future: a 'Gradual Transformation' scenario where a single European gas market develops that is essentially oligopolistic in nature; a 'Vertical Integration' scenario, where upstream and downstream gas companies merge to form a vertically integrated gas supplier; and a 'Pull the Plug' scenario, where the current market structure decomposes into a competitive market. These scenarios are examined in terms of their impact on gas prices, demand and the distribution of gas rent along the supply chain. The paper highlights the fact that the EU's gas Directive is not sufficient for the introduction of competition into Europe's gas markets, but that company actions will be the key determinant, and they may favour alternative market structures. (Author)

  18. Development of the Role Scenario of the Personnel Management Specialist Activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stolyaruk Khrystyna S.

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted of the issues of development of classification and content of role, which are performed by personnel management specialists in their professional activity. It proves a necessity of development of role scenarios under conditions of application of the competence approach in training and practical activity. Thus, the author offers five key roles in activity of a personnel management specialist, which reflect different vectors of directions of the scenario of professional activity regardless of the performed function and position. The article specifies the following roles in the offered classification: partner, expert, communicator, consultant and curator. It presents results of a sociological study, which demonstrate the degree of co-ordination of opinions of employers and practicing personnel managers with respect to performance of roles in the sphere by their professional activity by the latter. This helps to identify a number of problems, which include the problem of availability of reserves of increase of the level of competence of personnel management specialists. This issue, in its turn, closely deals with main aspects of formation of competitiveness of the said specialists, since the degree of formation of competences is the key condition of formation of competitive advantages.

  19. Constructing Consistent Multiscale Scenarios by Transdisciplinary Processes: the Case of Mountain Regions Facing Global Change

    OpenAIRE

    Fridolin Simon. Brand; Roman Seidl; Quang Bao. Le; Julia Maria. Brändle; Roland Werner. Scholz

    2013-01-01

    Alpine regions in Europe, in particular, face demanding local challenges, e.g., the decline in the agriculture and timber industries, and are also prone to global changes, such as in climate, with potentially severe impacts on tourism. We focus on the Visp region in the Upper Valais, Switzerland, and ask how the process of stakeholder involvement in research practice can contribute to a better understanding of the specific challenges and future development of mountainous regions under global ...

  20. Investigation of key parameters for the development of reliable ITER baseline operation scenarios using CORSICA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Casper, T. A.; Snipes, J. A.

    2018-05-01

    ITER will demonstrate the feasibility of burning plasma operation by operating DT plasmas in the ELMy H-mode regime with a high ratio of fusion power gain Q ~ 10. 15 MA ITER baseline operation scenario has been studied using CORSICA, focusing on the entry to burn, flat-top burning plasma operation and exit from burn. The burning plasma operation for about 400 s of the current flat-top was achieved in H-mode within the various engineering constraints imposed by the poloidal field coil and power supply systems. The target fusion gain (Q ~ 10) was achievable in the 15 MA ITER baseline operation with a moderate amount of the total auxiliary heating power (~50 MW). It has been observed that the tungsten (W) concentration needs to be maintained low level (n w/n e up to the order of 1.0  ×  10-5) to avoid the radiative collapse and uncontrolled early termination of the discharge. The dynamic evolution of the density can modify the H-mode access unless the applied auxiliary heating power is significantly higher than the H-mode threshold power. Several qualitative sensitivity studies have been performed to provide guidance for further optimizing the plasma operation and performance. Increasing the density profile peaking factor was quite effective in increasing the alpha particle self-heating power and fusion power multiplication factor. Varying the combination of auxiliary heating power has shown that the fusion power multiplication factor can be reduced along with the increase in the total auxiliary heating power. As the 15 MA ITER baseline operation scenario requires full capacity of the coil and power supply systems, the operation window for H-mode access and shape modification was narrow. The updated ITER baseline operation scenarios developed in this work will become a basis for further optimization studies necessary along with the improvement in understanding the burning plasma physics.

  1. Generic Regional Development Strategies from Local Stakeholders' Scenarios - an Alpine Village Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Loibl

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the participatory elaboration of strategies for sustainable regional development in an Alpine tourist region in Austria to cope with global change effects evolving locally, considering climate change, economic change as well as (local societal change. Local stakeholders in an Alpine village in the Montafon region contributed in workshops to achieve the final results: participant teams conducted system analyses of the regional system to explore key elements of the region. Narrative scenarios described possible positive and negative development trends and indicated the critical issues controlling future development; 3D-images of landscape transition simulations show the consequences of certain development directions. Alternative development directions supported the local stakeholders to elaborate regional development strategies. In the end, the scientist team derived generic strategies for Alpine regions based on the locally developed strategy bundle. The article presents the intention, progress and outcome of the participatory approach and elaborates the potential to derive generic strategies from local ones and discusses the possibly occurring conflicts regarding cross-scale transfers of these local strategies. Overall, tourism was seen as a key element for future regional development, which can on the one hand derogate Alpine regions and is on the other hand threatened by climate change and diminution of landscape attractiveness. The suggested development strategies will help to cope with global change issues mitigating the negative consequences on the local society and environment.

  2. Climate change, crop yields, and undernutrition: development of a model to quantify the impact of climate scenarios on child undernutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Simon J; Kovats, R Sari; Chalabi, Zaid

    2011-12-01

    Global climate change is anticipated to reduce future cereal yields and threaten food security, thus potentially increasing the risk of undernutrition. The causation of undernutrition is complex, and there is a need to develop models that better quantify the potential impacts of climate change on population health. We developed a model for estimating future undernutrition that accounts for food and nonfood (socioeconomic) causes and can be linked to available regional scenario data. We estimated child stunting attributable to climate change in five regions in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in 2050. We used current national food availability and undernutrition data to parameterize and validate a global model, using a process-driven approach based on estimations of the physiological relationship between a lack of food and stunting. We estimated stunting in 2050 using published modeled national calorie availability under two climate scenarios and a reference scenario (no climate change). We estimated that climate change will lead to a relative increase in moderate stunting of 1-29% in 2050 compared with a future without climate change. Climate change will have a greater impact on rates of severe stunting, which we estimated will increase by 23% (central SSA) to 62% (South Asia). Climate change is likely to impair future efforts to reduce child malnutrition in South Asia and SSA, even when economic growth is taken into account. Our model suggests that to reduce and prevent future undernutrition, it is necessary to both increase food access and improve socioeconomic conditions, as well as reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  3. A Knowledge Management Scenario to Support Knowledge Applications Development in Small and Medium Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ROSU, S. M.

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, in the European countries more than 95% of the companies are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs and majority of the European Union employees work in these companies. In order to develop intelligent business to become competitive, the enterprises must increase the quality and technologic level of products and services, to have permanent new product or to make old products bettering and to have a good prices policy. These activities request first a large amount of data, information and knowledge collected from all sources and then request transferring knowledge at each enterprise level. Therefore, this work analyses the state of art of the knowledge and knowledge management (KM and propose KM scenario to support knowledge applications (KApps development in SMEs. In addition, the paper presents how can be knowledge bases built at the enterprise level.

  4. Scenario development during commissioning operations on the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglia, D. J.; Boyer, M. D.; Gerhardt, S.; Mueller, D.; Myers, C. E.; Guttenfelder, W.; Menard, J. E.; Sabbagh, S. A.; Scotti, F.; Bedoya, F.; Bell, R. E.; Berkery, J. W.; Diallo, A.; Ferraro, N.; Kaye, S. M.; Jaworski, M. A.; LeBlanc, B. P.; Ono, M.; Park, J.-K.; Podesta, M.; Raman, R.; Soukhanovskii, V.; NSTX-U Research, the; Operations; Engineering Team

    2018-04-01

    The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) will advance the physics basis required for achieving steady-state, high-beta, and high-confinement conditions in a tokamak by accessing high toroidal fields (1 T) and plasma currents (1.0-2.0 MA) in a low aspect ratio geometry (A  =  1.6-1.8) with flexible auxiliary heating systems (12 MW NBI, 6 MW HHFW). This paper describes the progress in the development of L- and H-mode discharge scenarios and the commissioning of operational tools in the first ten weeks of operation that enable the scientific mission of NSTX-U. Vacuum field calculations completed prior to operations supported the rapid development and optimization of inductive breakdown at different values of ohmic solenoid current. The toroidal magnetic field (B T0  =  0.65 T) exceeded the maximum values achieved on NSTX and novel long-pulse L-mode discharges with regular sawtooth activity exceeded the longest pulses produced on NSTX (t pulse  >  1.8 s). The increased flux of the central solenoid facilitated the development of stationary L-mode discharges over a range of density and plasma current (I p). H-mode discharges achieved similar levels of stored energy, confinement (H98y,2  >  1) and stability (β N/β N-nowall  >  1) compared to NSTX discharges for I p  ⩽  1 MA. High-performance H-mode scenarios require an L-H transition early in the I p ramp-up phase in order to obtain low internal inductance (l i) throughout the discharge, which is conducive to maintaining vertical stability at high elongation (κ  >  2.2) and achieving long periods of MHD quiescent operations. The rapid progress in developing L- and H-mode scenarios in support of the scientific program was enabled by advances in real-time plasma control, efficient error field identification and correction, effective conditioning of the graphite wall and excellent diagnostic availability.

  5. Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Basovníková

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

  6. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  7. Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A. [Colenco Power Consulting AG, Baden (Switzerland)

    2001-07-01

    This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises.

  8. Climate change and energy scenarios in Asia-Pacific developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddiqi, T.A.; Foell, W.K.; Hills, P.; Nagao, Taiji

    1991-01-01

    Worldwide increases in energy use are the largest source of rising emissions of CO 2 . In the past, Europe and North America were the regions with the largest emissions. The rapid rate of industrialization, combined with population growth, has led to substantial increases in energy use in the developing countries of Asia and the Pacific. If present trends continue, the region will become the largest emitter of CO 2 from the use of fossil fuels within the next two or three decades. In this paper, we examine some alternate energy scenarios for the individual countries of the region and the potential for reducing CO 2 emissions from energy use to the year 2010. (author)

  9. Scenarios for the development of electromobility in Munich; Szenarien zur Entwicklung der Elektromobilitaet in Muenchen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brunnert, Stefan [Hochschule Weihenstephan-Triesdorf (Germany). Studiengang ' ' Management Erneuerbare Energien' '

    2011-07-01

    The change of the individual mobility on environmentally friendly and sustainable approach is not only in Germany an important concern, but also a global challenge. The main reasons for an involvement are dwindling crude oil reserves and the greenhouse effect. Due to the road traffic as one of the largest emitters of CO{sub 2} possibilities are discussed to make mobility more environmentally friendly and energy-politically sustainable. In this context, the electric car is seen as a possible component of the vision for the future of the environment and mobility. The contribution under consideration reports on the possible development of electric vehicles in Munich in 2030 based on three scenarios. The results are based on a fundamental study of the Institute fortiss GmbH (Munich, Federal Republic of Germany) and a recent study by the Research center for Energy Economics (Munich, Federal Republic of Germany) for electric vehicles.

  10. A nonlinear scenario for development of vortex layer instability in gravity field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goncharov, V. P.

    2007-01-01

    A Hamiltonian version of contour dynamics is formulated for models of constant-vorticity plane flows with interfaces. The proposed approach is used as a framework for a nonlinear scenario for instability development. Localized vortex blobs are analyzed as structural elements of a strongly perturbed wall layer of a vorticity-carrying fluid with free boundary in gravity field. Gravity and vorticity effects on the geometry and velocity of vortex structures are examined. It is shown that compactly supported nonlinear solutions (compactons) are candidates for the role of particle-like vortex structures in models of flow breakdown. An analysis of the instability mechanism demonstrates the possibility of a self-similar collapse. It is found that the vortex shape stabilizes at the final stage of the collapse, while the vortex sheet strength on its boundary increases as (t 0 - t) -1 , where t 0 is the collapse time

  11. Development of the New Educational Content "small Uas in Civil Engineering Application Scenarios"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, E.; Vach, K.; Shults, R.

    2017-12-01

    The key point of this paper is presentation of the main idea and some results of the project "Small UAS in civil engineering application scenarios" (SUAS-CAS). This project was proposed by newly established in 2016 ISPRS WG V/7: "Innovative Technologies in Training Civil Engineers and Architects". Here we are presenting our experience in using low-cost UAS in training architects at Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, which was chosen as basic for this project. In the first part of paper, the project outline is presented. Then the first and possible follow project outcomes were described. In some details is described the training module "Small UAS in architecture" which was developed and included as a part of the subject "Architectural photogrammetry".

  12. Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises

  13. Development of damage control training scenarios of naval ships based on simplified vulnerability analysis results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Ki Park

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the growing interest in damage control training for the naval ships and their organizations, expectations for a new concept of training program have also increased. The existing training programs and its concept focus on training crew to be more proficient and skilled so that they can respond better to damage situations, i.e., fires and flooding. This paper suggests a development procedure of damage control training scenarios using the survivability analysis results as a new concept of damage control training programs employing advanced systems such as damage control console, automation system, and kill cards. This approach could help the decision maker not only enhance his or her capability but also improve the reacting capability of crew members for complex situations induced by a weapon hit.

  14. Conceptualizing sustainable development. An assessment methodology connecting values, knowledge, worldviews and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, Bert J.M.; Petersen, Arthur C.

    2009-01-01

    Sustainability science poses severe challenges to classical disciplinary science. To bring the perspectives of diverse disciplines together in a meaningful way, we describe a novel methodology for sustainability assessment of a particular social-ecological system, or country. Starting point is that a sustainability assessment should investigate the ability to continue and develop a desirable way of living vis-a-vis later generations and life elsewhere on the planet. Evidently, people hold different values and beliefs about the way societies sustain quality of life for their members. The first step, therefore, is to analyze people's value orientations and the way in which they interpret sustainability problems i.e. their beliefs. The next step is to translate the resulting worldviews into model-based narratives, i.e. scenarios. The qualitative and quantitative outcomes are then investigated in terms of associated risks and opportunities and robustness of policy options. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has followed this methodology, using extensive surveys among the Dutch population. In its First Sustainability Outlook (2004), the resulting archetypical worldviews became the basis for four different scenarios for policy analysis, with emphases on the domains of transport, energy and food. The goal of the agency's Sustainability Outlooks is to show that choices are inevitable in policy making for sustainable development, to indicate which positive and negative impacts one can expect of these choices (trade-offs), and to identify options that may be robust under several worldviews. The conceptualization proposed here is both clear and applicable in practical sustainability assessments for policy making. (author)

  15. Aquatic environment as an occupational therapeutic scenario for the development of body scheme in Down syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chrystiane Maria Veras Pôrto

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To assess the effect of aquatic environment while an occupational therapeutic scenario in the development of body scheme of a child with Down Syndrome, considering the therapeutic properties of water. Description of the case: An interventionist research, with a qualitative and descriptive approach, conducted in an adapted pool of the Núcleo de Atenção Médica Integrada (NAMI of Fortaleza University (UNIFOR, Ceara, during the period of March to May, 2005. The subject of the study was a female child, aged 10 years old, diagnosed with Down Syndrome. Data collection had as instruments an interview guide for anamnesis, an evaluation form of psychomotor development, besides a field diary to record clinical observations during the sessions. This information was organized and analyzed based on clinical reasoning of occupational therapists and then described as a case study. We observed an evolution in the development of skills related to body scheme, such as the perception of fine parts of her own body, as well as large parts in someone else’s body, the imitation of positions, finishing with more active participation in activities of daily living. Final Considerations: We verified the effectiveness of occupational therapeutic activities conducted in aquatic environment for the development of the body scheme of the child in the study. This may be useful for conducting further research on the subject – whose literature is scarce – and contributing to the crescent update of occupational therapy practices.

  16. Reuse of conditionally released steel; proposals and evaluation of processes for manufacturing of steel elements and processes for construction of selected scenarios - 59130

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezak, Peter; Ondra, Frantisek; Hajkova, Eva; Necas, Vladimir

    2012-01-01

    The project include systematic scenarios analysis of conditionally released materials from the decommissioning of nuclear installations and the creation of new knowledge in this field, which will be used for implementing projects for reuse of these materials. New knowledge includes data about materials from the decommissioning (types of materials and radiological data on the basis of analysis of various scenarios). Scenarios contain information about conditionally released materials, data of the external exposure of personnel who will assemble those structures and who will be use the constructions up to the target scenario. Scenarios assume guarantee that the final products will be placed on the current position for a very long period from 50 to 100 years. The paper presents the review of activities for manufacturing of various steel construction elements made of conditionally released steels and activities for realisation of selected scenarios for reuse of construction elements. The ingots after melting of decommissioned radioactive steel materials are as the starting material for manufacturing of steel components. Ingots from the controlled area will be melted into induction furnace and the mixture of liquid steel will be alloyed for achieve of required chemical parameters. Typical steel products suitable for established scenarios are steel rebar of concrete, steel profiles of various forms, railway rails and rolled steel sheets. Target scenarios include an analysis of staff exposure during installation of steel constructions as well as exposure of individual from critical groups of population during their exploitation. The various scenarios, provided within the scope of the CONRELMAT project are focused at the systematic analysis of the use of conditionally released steel from decommissioning of nuclear facilities. Scenarios are focused on research and development of model situations in constructions in the areas of transport, civil constructions, industry and

  17. Artificial neural network surrogate development of equivalence models for nuclear data uncertainty propagation in scenario studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krivtchik Guillaume

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario studies simulate the whole fuel cycle over a period of time, from extraction of natural resources to geological storage. Through the comparison of different reactor fleet evolutions and fuel management options, they constitute a decision-making support. Consequently uncertainty propagation studies, which are necessary to assess the robustness of the studies, are strategic. Among numerous types of physical model in scenario computation that generate uncertainty, the equivalence models, built for calculating fresh fuel enrichment (for instance plutonium content in PWR MOX so as to be representative of nominal fuel behavior, are very important. The equivalence condition is generally formulated in terms of end-of-cycle mean core reactivity. As this results from a physical computation, it is therefore associated with an uncertainty. A state-of-the-art of equivalence models is exposed and discussed. It is shown that the existing equivalent models implemented in scenario codes, such as COSI6, are not suited to uncertainty propagation computation, for the following reasons: (i existing analytical models neglect irradiation, which has a strong impact on the result and its uncertainty; (ii current black-box models are not suited to cross-section perturbations management; and (iii models based on transport and depletion codes are too time-consuming for stochastic uncertainty propagation. A new type of equivalence model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN has been developed, constructed with data calculated with neutron transport and depletion codes. The model inputs are the fresh fuel isotopy, the irradiation parameters (burnup, core fractionation, etc., cross-sections perturbations and the equivalence criterion (for instance the core target reactivity in pcm at the end of the irradiation cycle. The model output is the fresh fuel content such that target reactivity is reached at the end of the irradiation cycle. Those models are built and

  18. Process developments in gasoil hydrotreating

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lawrence, R.C.; Kinley, D.H.; Wood, M.A. [Davy Process Technology Limited, London (United Kingdom)

    1997-07-01

    Changing demand patterns and legislation increase the pressure upon hydrotreating capacities at many refineries. To meet these pressures, improvements have been and will be necessary not only in catalysts, but also in the hydrotreating process. On the basis of its hydrogenation experience, Davy Process Technology has developed and tested a number of concepts aimed at improving the effectiveness of the basic process - enabling economic deep desulfurisation and opening up the potential for an integrated HDS/HDA flowsheet using sulphur tolerant HDA Catalysts.

  19. Speech reception with different bilateral directional processing schemes: Influence of binaural hearing, audiometric asymmetry, and acoustic scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neher, Tobias; Wagener, Kirsten C; Latzel, Matthias

    2017-09-01

    Hearing aid (HA) users can differ markedly in their benefit from directional processing (or beamforming) algorithms. The current study therefore investigated candidacy for different bilateral directional processing schemes. Groups of elderly listeners with symmetric (N = 20) or asymmetric (N = 19) hearing thresholds for frequencies below 2 kHz, a large spread in the binaural intelligibility level difference (BILD), and no difference in age, overall degree of hearing loss, or performance on a measure of selective attention took part. Aided speech reception was measured using virtual acoustics together with a simulation of a linked pair of completely occluding behind-the-ear HAs. Five processing schemes and three acoustic scenarios were used. The processing schemes differed in the tradeoff between signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) improvement and binaural cue preservation. The acoustic scenarios consisted of a frontal target talker presented against two speech maskers from ±60° azimuth or spatially diffuse cafeteria noise. For both groups, a significant interaction between BILD, processing scheme, and acoustic scenario was found. This interaction implied that, in situations with lateral speech maskers, HA users with BILDs larger than about 2 dB profited more from preserved low-frequency binaural cues than from greater SNR improvement, whereas for smaller BILDs the opposite was true. Audiometric asymmetry reduced the influence of binaural hearing. In spatially diffuse noise, the maximal SNR improvement was generally beneficial. N 0 S π detection performance at 500 Hz predicted the benefit from low-frequency binaural cues. Together, these findings provide a basis for adapting bilateral directional processing to individual and situational influences. Further research is needed to investigate their generalizability to more realistic HA conditions (e.g., with low-frequency vent-transmitted sound). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as

  1. Scenario Development and Delphi Application in Life Cycle Assessment for Assessing Environmental Impact of New Technology Case Study: Removal of Wind Turbines Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devina Fitrika Dewi

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Certain technology is intended to create eco-efficient products or process or is developed as answer to the recent challenge. This kind of technology consequently can also create another impact therefore it shall be assessed and analyzed.The focus of the study is on assessment method namely Life Cycle Analysis (LCA, Scenario development and Delphi application. The objective is to understand benefits and drawbacks of the combined methodology and observe practicality of its implementation for assessing new technology. The distinctive feature comes from the combination of social and technological foresight (as Delphi application and future studies (as Scenario development which are applied in the environmental assessment of a product (by Life Cycle Analysis.The utilization of LCA-Scenario-Delphi case study as an explanatory example is presented in the Removal Wind Turbines Project by the Danish Energy Agency. The wind turbine is considered new technology with some of it phases are yet to occur, for example: removal of turbines after phase out stage. Technology Assessment by LCA-Scenario-Delphi is complicated procedure, but necessary to validate the results. The drawbacks of this procedure are extensive time it consumes and the dependency on public participation and/or expert willingness to participate. Nonetheless, its advantages are due to its interactive feature; integration of knowledge from different areas of expertise and its assessment’s characteristic which focuses on process.

  2. Wood energy x 2 - Scenario for the development of wood energy use in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    This study for the Swiss Agency for the Environment, Forests and Landscapes (SAEFL) and the Swiss wood-energy association (Holzenergie Schweiz) presents the results of a scenario-study that examined if, and under what conditions, doubling the use of wood energy in Switzerland could help reach carbon dioxide reduction targets. Two scenarios are presented that are based on high and low rates of growth for the number of automatic wood-chipping or pellets-fired installations. For both scenarios, figures are presented on the amount of wood used and the heating energy generated. The political and financial prerequisites for the scenarios are discussed and other boundary conditions are defined. The report draws conclusions from the study of the two scenarios and summarises the political action deemed necessary

  3. The MINERVA Software Development Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narkawicz, Anthony; Munoz, Cesar A.; Dutle, Aaron M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a software development process for safety-critical software components of cyber-physical systems. The process is called MINERVA, which stands for Mirrored Implementation Numerically Evaluated against Rigorously Verified Algorithms. The process relies on formal methods for rigorously validating code against its requirements. The software development process uses: (1) a formal specification language for describing the algorithms and their functional requirements, (2) an interactive theorem prover for formally verifying the correctness of the algorithms, (3) test cases that stress the code, and (4) numerical evaluation on these test cases of both the algorithm specifications and their implementations in code. The MINERVA process is illustrated in this paper with an application to geo-containment algorithms for unmanned aircraft systems. These algorithms ensure that the position of an aircraft never leaves a predetermined polygon region and provide recovery maneuvers when the region is inadvertently exited.

  4. Development of flood regressions and climate change scenarios to explore estimates of future peak flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Douglas A.; Smith, Martyn J.; Freehafer, Douglas A.

    2015-12-31

    A new Web-based application, titled “Application of Flood Regressions and Climate Change Scenarios To Explore Estimates of Future Peak Flows”, has been developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the New York State Department of Transportation, that allows a user to apply a set of regression equations to estimate the magnitude of future floods for any stream or river in New York State (exclusive of Long Island) and the Lake Champlain Basin in Vermont. The regression equations that are the basis of the current application were developed in previous investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and are described at the USGS StreamStats Web sites for New York (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/new_york.html) and Vermont (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/Vermont.html). These regression equations include several fixed landscape metrics that quantify aspects of watershed geomorphology, basin size, and land cover as well as a climate variable—either annual precipitation or annual runoff.

  5. Analysis of multiple failure accident scenarios for development of probabilistic safety assessment model for KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Suk, S.D.; Chang, W.P.; Kwon, Y.M.; Jeong, H.Y.; Lee, Y.B.; Ha, K.S.; Kim, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    A sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), KALIMER-600, is under development at KAERI. Its fuel is the metal fuel of U-TRU-Zr and it uses sodium as coolant. Its advantages are found in the aspects of an excellent uranium resource utilization, inherent safety features, and nonproliferation. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) will be one of the initiating subjects for designing it from the aspects of a risk informed design (RID) as well as a technology-neutral licensing (TNL). The core damage is defined as coolant voiding, fuel melting, or cladding damage. Accident scenarios which lead to the core damage should be identified for the development of a Level-1 PSA model. The SSC-K computer code is used to identify the conditions which lead to core damage. KALIMER-600 has passive safety features such as passive shutdown functions, passive pump coast-down features, and passive decay heat removal systems. It has inherent reactivity feedback effects such as Doppler, sodium void, core axial expansion, control rod axial expansion, core radial expansion, etc. The accidents which are analyzed are the multiple failure accidents such as an unprotected transient overpower, a loss of flow, and a loss of heat sink events with degraded safety systems or functions. The safety functions to be considered here are a reactor trip, inherent reactivity feedback features, the pump coast-down, and the passive decay heat removal. (author)

  6. Process Fragment Libraries for Easier and Faster Development of Process-based Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Schumm

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The term “process fragment” is recently gaining momentum in business process management research. We understand a process fragment as a connected and reusable process structure, which has relaxed completeness and consistency criteria compared to executable processes. We claim that process fragments allow for an easier and faster development of process-based applications. As evidence to this claim we present a process fragment concept and show a sample collection of concrete, real-world process fragments. We present advanced application scenarios for using such fragments in development of process-based applications. Process fragments are typically managed in a repository, forming a process fragment library. On top of a process fragment library from previous work, we discuss the potential impact of using process fragment libraries in cross-enterprise collaboration and application integration.

  7. Dynamic plan modelling and visualization : converting an urban development plan into a transition scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vries, de B.; Jessurun, A.J.; Sadowski - Rasters, G.; Tidafy, T; Dorta, T

    2009-01-01

    Application of 3D models in urban planning practice is still limited to visualization of existing or newly designed situations. Municipalities are looking for possibilities to communicate the transition process of the urban development area with the citizens. A prototype system was developed to

  8. Developing Renewable Energy: Comparative Scenarios and Public Policy Perspectives from some Latin American Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Cecilia Lardizabal

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The energy matrix of Latin American and the Caribbean countries has one of the largest renewable energy components when compared to other regions of the world. Nonetheless, by 2009 nearly three-quarters of its structure corresponded to fossil fuels, with most of the countries being net importers of these fuels. This situation marks the region´s dependence on the effects of changes in energy commodities. Therefore, the opportunity lies in higher use of renewable energy sources that contribute to the country´s energy security and represent significant environmental benefits. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative analysis of current energy scenarios of six Latin American countries (Mexico, Honduras, Nicaragua, Brazil, Ecuador and Chile in order to evaluate the policies, programs and strategies implemented in the search for greater participation of renewable energy. Considering the importance of the water-energy nexus that could serve to promote renewables under conditions of water scarcity, a qualitative data comparison was accomplished, considering energy consumption, CO2 emissions, GDP and water withdrawals per country. The authors conclude that, despite technological and financial constraints, all the involved countries are moving towards the substitution of a fossil fuel based matrix to a renewable one. This process could be seen as a result of clear policies and strategies that have been set, which include (but are not limited to price regulations setting, preferential prices to electricity generated through renewable energy technologies and incentives formulated to encourage the production of biofuels.

  9. Effects of New Fossil Fuel Developments on the Possibilities of Meeting 2C Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meindertsma, W.; Blok, K.

    2012-12-15

    Recent years have seen an increasing activity in developing new fossil fuel production capacity. This includes unconventional fossil fuels, such as tar sands and shale gas, fossil fuels from remote locations, and fossil fuels with a very large increase in production in the near future. In this report, the impact of such developments on our ability to mitigate climate change is investigated. Our inventory shows that the new fossil fuel developments currently underway consist of 29,400 billion cubic meters of natural gas, 260,000 million barrels of oil and 49,600 million tonnes of coal. The development of these new fossil fuels would result in emissions of 300 billion tonnes of CO2 -equivalent (CO2e) from 2012 until 2050. Until 2050, a 'carbon budget' of 1550 billion tonnes CO2e is still available if we want to of keep global warming below 2C with a 50% probability. For a 75% probability to stay below 2C this budget is only 1050 billion tonnes CO2e. So, the new fossil fuel developments identified in this report consume 20-33% of the remaining carbon budget until 2050. In a scenario where the new fossil fuels are developed, we need to embark on a rapid emission reductions pathway at the latest in 2019 in order to meet the 50% probability carbon budget. Avoiding the development of new fossil fuels will give us until 2025 to start further rapid emission reductions. These calculations are based on the assumption that the maximum emission reduction rate is 4% per year and that the maximum change in emission trend is 0.5 percentage point per year. The starting year for rapid emission reductions depends on the choice of these parameters. A sensitivity analysis shows that, in all cases, refraining from new fossil fuel development allows for a delay of 5 to 8 years before we should embark on a rapid emission reduction pathway. The high investments required for developing new fossil fuels lead to a lock in effect; once developed, these fossil fuels need to be

  10. Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

  11. Progress on advanced tokamak and steady-state scenario development on DIII-D and NSTX

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doyle, E J [Department of Electrical Engineering and PSTI, University of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States); Garofalo, A M [Columbia University, New York, New York 10027 (United States); Greenfield, C M [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Kaye, S M [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Menard, J E [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Murakami, M [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Sabbagh, S A [Columbia University, New York, New York 10027 (United States); Austin, M E [University of Texas-Austin, Austin, Texas 78712 (United States); Bell, R E [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Burrell, K H [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Ferron, J R [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Gates, D A [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab., Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Groebner, R J; Hyatt, A W; Luce, T C; Petty, C C; Wade, M R; Waltz, R E [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Jayakumar, R J [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., Livermore, California 94550 (United States); Kinsey, J E [Lehigh Univ., Bethlehem, Pennsylvania 18015 (United States); LeBlanc, B P [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab., Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); McKee, G R [Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 (United States); Okabayashi, M [Princeton Plasma Physics Lab., Princeton, New Jersey 08543-0451 (United States); Peng, Y-K M [Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831 (United States); Politzer, P A [General Atomics, San Diego, California 92186-5608 (United States); Rhodes, T L [Dept. of Electrical Engineering and PSTI, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, California 90095 (United States)

    2006-12-15

    Advanced tokamak (AT) research seeks to develop steady-state operating scenarios for ITER and other future devices from a demonstrated scientific basis. Normalized target parameters for steady-state operation on ITER are 100% non-inductive current operation with a bootstrap current fraction f{sub BS} {>=} 60%, q{sub 95} {approx} 4-5 and G {identical_to}{beta}{sub N}H{sub scaling}/q{sub 95}{sup 2} {>=}0.3. Progress in realizing such plasmas is considered in terms of the development of plasma control capabilities and scientific understanding, leading to improved AT performance. NSTX has demonstrated active resistive wall mode stabilization with low, ITER-relevant, rotation rates below the critical value required for passive stabilization. On DIII-D, experimental observations and GYRO simulations indicate that ion internal transport barrier (ITB) formation at rational-q surfaces is due to equilibrium zonal flows generating high local E ? B shear levels. In addition, stability modelling for DIII-D indicates a path to operation at {beta}{sub N} {>=} 4 with q{sub min} {>=} 2, using broad, hollow current profiles to increase the ideal wall stability limit. Both NSTX and DIII-D have optimized plasma performance and expanded AT operational limits. NSTX now has long-pulse, high performance discharges meeting the normalized targets for an spherical torus-based component test facility. DIII-D has developed sustained discharges combining high beta and ITBs, with performance approaching levels required for AT reactor concepts, e.g. {beta}{sub N} = 4, H{sub 89} = 2.5, with f{sub BS} > 60%. Most importantly, DIII-D has developed ITER steady-state demonstration discharges, simultaneously meeting the targets for steady-state Q {>=} 5 operation on ITER set out above, substantially increasing confidence in ITER meeting its steady-state performance objective.

  12. A probabilistic scenario approach for developing improved Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+ baselines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malika Virah-Sawmy

    2015-07-01

    By generating robust probabilistic baseline scenarios, exponential smoothing models can facilitate the effectiveness of REDD+ payments, support a more efficient allocation of scarce conservation resources, and improve our understanding of effective forest conservation investments, also beyond REDD+.

  13. Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musulin, Mike, II

    The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

  14. Participatory Scenario Development to Address Potential Impacts of Land Use Change: An Example from the Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Žiga Malek

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario development can be a useful tool for addressing the high uncertainty regarding modeling future land use changes. Scenarios are not exact forecasts, but images of plausible futures. When studying future land dynamics, emphasis should be given to areas experiencing high rates of socioeconomic change. We have focused on the eastern Italian Alps, which face increasing pressure from tourism development. Identified drivers of local land use change are mostly external and difficult to quantify. This area, characterized by a traditional Alpine landscape, is subject to high levels of hydro-meteorological risk, another reason to study potential future land use changes. We tested a scenario generation method based on existing decisions and assumptions about future tourism development. We aimed to develop a framework leading to plausible scenarios that can overcome data inaccessibility and address external drivers. We combined qualitative methods, such as stakeholder interviews and cognitive mapping, with geospatial methods, such as geographic information systems, geostatistics, and environmental modeling. We involved stakeholders from the beginning to support the steps of generating data, understanding the system of land use change, and developing a land use change model for scenario development. In this way, we generated spatio-temporal scenarios that can assist future spatial planning and improve preparedness for possible undesirable development.

  15. Using Scenario Development to Encourage Tourism Business Resilience in the Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

    2015-12-01

    Tourism is an economic sector anticipated to be greatly affected by climate change, but the potential impacts of climate change on tourism have rarely been examined in detail in existing research. Past research has shown, however, that the small and medium businesses that dominate the tourism sector could be greatly impacted by climate change. We have presented global climate and hydrologic model research results to pre-selected coastal tourism business owners in the Great Lakes region to determine the best methods for delivering user-friendly future climate scenarios, given that existing research suggests that climate change adaptive behaviors and resilience increase with information (message) clarity. Model output analyses completed for this work have focused on temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events due to their economic impact on tourism activities. We have also experimented with the development and use of infographics because of their ability to present information quickly and clearly. Initial findings of this work will be presented as well as lessons learned from stakeholder interactions. Two main results include that (1) extreme weather events may have more meaning to tourism business owners than general trends in climate and (2) long-term planning for climate is extremely difficult for tourism business owners because they operate on a much shorter planning timeline than those generally used for climate change analyses.

  16. Development of Cyber Theater titled "PINOCCHIO" and Cyber Theater Scenario Language: CTSL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroshi Matsuda

    2003-10-01

    Full Text Available In Japan, most of children haven't read the Fairy Tales or tales of old Japan because the high technology video games are more exciting than most of picture books. But they must be effective to bring up the children's cultivation of aesthetic sensitivity. And we have heard from teachers of elementary schools that most of themes of computer education in school are the operation of Painting Tool or Game Software. To improve these problems and to aid the courses of computer-based education in elementary school, we developed new educational support tool named Cyber Theater. Cyber Theater provides the capability of easy making the 3D-CG animation of children's story by using Script language named CTSL (Cyber Theater Scenario Language. We hope schoolteachers will be able to use Cyber Tales as teaching materials in elementary schools. We also hope that upper-aged students (including junior high school students are able to make their original CG-animation stories as the Creative Lesson.

  17. a Novel Methodology for Developing Inundation Maps Under Climate Change Scenarios Using One-Dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.; Raghavan, V. S.; Liew, S. C.

    2011-07-01

    Climate change is expected to cause increases in extreme climatic events such as heavy rainstorms and rising tidal level. Heavy rainstorms are known to be serious causes of flooding problems in big cities. Thus, high density residential and commercial areas along the rivers are facing risks of being flooded. For that reason, inundated area determination is now being considered as one of the most important areas of research focus in flood forecasting. In such a context, this paper presents the development of a floodmap in determining flood-prone areas and its volumes. The areas and volumes of flood are computed by the inundated level using the existing digital elevation model (DEM) of a hypothetical catchment chosen for study. The study focuses on the application of Flood Early Warning System (Delft — FEWS, Deltares), which is designated to work with the SOBEK (Delft) to simulate the extent of stormwater on the ground surface. The results from FEWS consist of time-series of inundation maps in Image file format (PNG) and ASCII format, which are subsequently imported to ArcGIS for further calculations. In addition, FEWS results provide options to export the video clip of water spreading out over the catchment. Consequently, inundated area and volume will be determined by the water level on the ground. Final floodmap is displayed in colors created by ArcGIS. Various flood map results corresponding to climate change scenarios will be displayed in the main part of the paper.

  18. A methodology to modify land uses in a transit oriented development scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahu, Akshay

    2018-05-01

    Developing nations are adopting transit oriented development (TOD) strategies to decongest their transportation systems. These strategies are often adopted after the preparation of land use plans. The goal of this study was to build a methodology to modify these land uses using soft computing. This can help to achieve alternate land use plans relevant to TOD. The methodology incorporates TOD characteristics and objectives. Global TOD parameters (density, diversity, and distance to transit) were studied. Expert opinions gave weights and ranges for the parameters in an Indian TOD scenario. Rules to allocate land use was developed. Objective functions were defined. Four objectives were used. First was to maximize employment density, residential density and percent of mix land use. Second was to shape density and diversity with respect to distance. Third was to minimize degree of land use change, and fourth was to increase compactness of the land use allocation. The methodology was applied to two sectors of Naya Raipur, the new planned administrative capital of the state of Chhattisgarh, India. The city has implemented TOD in the form of Bus rapid transit system (BRTS) over an existing land use. Thousand random plans were generated through the methodology. Top 30 plans were selected as parent population for modifications through genetic algorithm (GA). Alternate plans were generated at the end of GA cycle. The best alternate plan was compared with successful BRTS and TOD land uses for its merits and demerits. It was also compared with the initial land use plan for empirical validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    OpenAIRE

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as challenging and useful, but also highlighted problems of distributed communication. The findings were used to improve the training as well as current use of the technology in the organisation. Research ...

  20. Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Tamara; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Cameron, D. Richard

    2017-01-01

    With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

  1. Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Rothwell

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

  2. Study of the triton-burnup process in different JET scenarios using neutron monitor based on CVD diamond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemtsev, G., E-mail: g.nemtsev@iterrf.ru; Amosov, V.; Meshchaninov, S.; Rodionov, R. [Institution “Project center ITER,” Moscow (Russian Federation); Popovichev, S. [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Collaboration: EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

    2016-11-15

    We present the results of analysis of triton burn-up process using the data from diamond detector. Neutron monitor based on CVD diamond was installed in JET torus hall close to the plasma center. We measure the part of 14 MeV neutrons in scenarios where plasma current varies in a range of 1-3 MA. In this experiment diamond neutron monitor was also able to detect strong gamma bursts produced by runaway electrons arising during the disruptions. We can conclude that CVD diamond detector will contribute to the study of fast particles confinement and help predict the disruption events in future tokamaks.

  3. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  4. Limits to oil pricing: scenario planning as a device to understand oil price developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Austvik, O.G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper underlines that the politicizing of the oil market makes economics, politics and even pure warfare important elements in the formation of the price of oil. The disagreement about which theory to use to analyze the market and the bad record of oil price forecasting indicates that conventional oil market models should be critically re-assessed. The scenario planning methodology presented in this paper may be one alternative approach. SP does not overthrow any other theories of the market. But it claims that no single discipline is able to tell the whole truth about the market. The SP approach stresses and clarifies the role of uncertainty in the development of oil prices and underlines the importance of the understanding of the functioning of the market. It argues that without a cross-disciplinary approach, with an adequate choice of parameters, at the right level of in-depth discussion, the analysis may lose essential input or drown in detail. As an example of the methodology, an analysis of development of oil prices in the nineties is presented. It is shown that lower (indicated as 15-20 S/bbl) and upper (indicated as 30-40 S/bbl) limits of the price in the long run can be constructed, based on economic, political and strategic reasoning. It is also argued that short run 'shocks' outside these limits may have become less likely, because: (1) the strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) will cut off the most extreme prices above the upper limit and (2) the existence of a supply side regulator, like OPEC, will prevent prices from dropping below the lower limit for any longer period of time. Sensitivity analysis tests the 'robustness' of the approach. 10 refs., 1 fig

  5. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  6. Defining project scenarios for the agile requirements engineering product-line development questionnaire

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Kunwu; Lempert, Meli; Tang, Yan; Tian, Kun; Cooper, Kendra M.L.; Franch Gutiérrez, Javier

    2007-01-01

    Current agile methods are focused on practices of small, rapid developing and iteration, more people oriented, less documentation projects, and the use of the methods in large, product line projects are somehow difficult. UTD and GESSI have started a project to develop an expert system that can assist a requirements enginer in selecting a requirements engineering process that is well suited for their project, in particular with respect to the use of agile and product line engineering methods....

  7. Methodology for the development of scenarios for the evaluation of the behaviour of a deep geological repository for high-level radioactive waste in a granite formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortes Martin, A.; Alonso, J.; Gonzalez, E.

    1996-01-01

    In time, deep geological repositories for radioactive waste undergo significant environmental changes caused either by natural processes or by human actions. In view of a long-term safety analysis, it is fundamental to identify all the possible evolutions of the system. This process is denominated scenario development. This paper deals with the methodology used to generate scenarios within the framework of the AGP (Deep Geological Repository) project for assessing behaviour in granite medium. It begins with a brief description of the methodology used to identify the relevant factors for the safety analysis on the system. It then presents the details of the actual scenario-generating methodology which consists of dividing the entire system into barrier states or subsystems a graphic procedure by means of which the factors are represented in relation to their predictable impact or extent of their effect on the subsystems. This methodology is a good tool for displaying and grouping the most significant scenarios for the subsequent analysis of consequences. (Author)

  8. Patterns of Software Development Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro Javier Bolaños Castro

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available "Times New Roman","serif";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">This article presents a set of patterns that can be found to perform best practices in software processes that are directly related to the problem of implementing the activities of the process, the roles involved, the knowledge generated and the inputs and outputs belonging to the process. In this work, a definition of the architecture is encouraged by using different recurrent configurations that strengthen the process and yield efficient results for the development of a software project. The patterns presented constitute a catalog, which serves as a vocabulary for communication among project participants [1], [2], and also can be implemented through software tools, thus facilitating patterns implementation [3]. Additionally, a tool that can be obtained under GPL (General Public license is provided for this purpose

  9. A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

    2017-10-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

  10. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

  11. A Sectoral Micro-Economic Approach to Scenario Selection and Development: The Case of the Greek Power Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandros Flamos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Generating policy-relevant scenarios is instrumental for understanding and developing policy measures. These are especially relevant to the power sector. Practitioners have been working on policy-relevant scenarios for the ex-ante assessment of policy measures in a meaningful way for end-users related to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper presents a method for generating such policy relevant scenarios by focusing on the actor-contingent elements of the scenarios, i.e., the developments that are within the control of system actors to change or bring about. Several scenario techniques focusing on systematic-formalized or quantitative approaches have been published on this front over the past few years. Here, we introduce a methodology that is best suited for the assessment of the expected effect of different policy measures on the involved stakeholders’ behavior as well as for the analysis of the interactions between different policy measures as reflected on their impact on the strength and direction of the provided incentives. The applicability of our methodology is demonstrated for the case of the Greek power market. It was further evaluated in view of the challenges related to the issues of generation capacity adequacy and increased fiscal deficit. The strategic implications of the proposed approach concern the demonstration of the benefits from adopting a policy assessment methodology that focus on stakeholder expectations and interactions.

  12. Laser induced photochemical and photophysical processes in fuel reprocessing: present scenario and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhowmick, G.K.; Sarkar, S.K.; Ramanujam, A.

    2001-01-01

    State-of-art lasers can meet the very stringent requirements of nuclear technology and hence find application in varied areas of nuclear fuel cycle. Here, we discuss two specific applications in nuclear fuel reprocessing namely (a) add-on photochemical modifications of PUREX process where photochemical reactors replace the chemical reactors, and (b) fast, matrix independent sensitive laser analytical techniques. The photochemical modifications based on laser induced valency adjustment offers efficient separation, easy maintenance and over all reduction in the volume of radioactive waste. The analytical technique of time resolved laser induced fluorescence (TRLIF) has several attractive features like excellent sensitivity, element selective, and capability of on line remote process monitoring. For optically opaque solutions, optical excitation is detected by its conversion into thermal energy by non-radiative relaxation processes using the photo-thermal spectroscopic techniques. (author)

  13. Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

    2013-01-01

    A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year

  14. [The contracting process and outsourcing in health: the scenario for dispute between public and private interests].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albuquerque, Maria do Socorro Veloso; Morais, Heloísa Maria Mendonça de; Lima, Luci Praciano

    2015-06-01

    This research analyzed the public-private composition in the municipal health network and aspects of the contracting/outsourcing process for services over the period from 2001 to 2008. The research method used was a case study with documentary research and interviews. The interviewees were former secretaries of health, directors of regulation and district managers. The categories of analysis used were public funds, care networks and public control. The results showed that the contracting was restricted to philanthropic units. With respect to the other private establishments linked to the public care network, non-compliance with programmatic aspects was detected, such as the lack of regulation of bidding processes required for contracting. Management authorities did not actively pursue building up state public services, or the formation of care networks. The contracted establishments conducted their activities without effective external and internal control mechanisms, which are paramount for the proper use of public resources. The authors conclude that the contracting process does not significantly alter the standard of buying and selling of services and indeed does not enhance the empowering process of the role of the public domain.

  15. Process Simulation and Techno-Economic Evaluation of Alternative Biorefinery Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aizpurua Gonzalez, Carlos Ernesto

    A biorefinery is a complex processing facility that uses sustainably produced biomass as feedstock to generate biofuels and chemical products using a wide variety of alternative conversion pathways. The alternative conversion pathways can be generally classified as either biochemical or thermochemical conversion. A biorefinery is commonly based on a core biomass conversion technology (pretreatment, hydrolysis, pyrolysis, etc.) followed by secondary processing stages that determine the specific product, and its recovery. In this study, techno-economic analysis of several different lignocellulosic biomass conversion pathways have been performed. First, a novel biochemical conversion, which used electron beam and steam explosion pretreatments for ethanol production was evaluated. This evaluation include both laboratory work and process modeling. Encouraging experimental results are obtained that showed the biomass had enhanced reactivity to the enzyme hydrolysis. The total sugar recovery for the hardwood species was 72% using 5 FPU/g enzyme dosage. The combination of electron beam and steam explosion provides an improvement in sugar conversion of more than 20% compared to steam explosion alone. This combination of pretreatments was modeled along with a novel ethanol dehydration process that is based on vapor permeation membranes. The economic feasibility of this novel pretreatment-dehydration technology was evaluated and compared with the dilute acid process proposed by NREL in 2011. Overall, the pretreatment-dehydration technology process produces the same ethanol yields (81 gal/bdton). However, the economics of this novel process does not look promising since the minimum ethanol selling price (MESP) to generate an internal rate of return of 10% is of 3.09 /gal, compared to 2.28 /gal for the base case. To enhance the economic potential of a biorefinery, the isolation of value-added co-products was incorporated into the base dilute acid biorefinery process. In this

  16. Electrical demand forecast in two different scenarios of socio-economic development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goni, M.R.

    1996-01-01

    A projection of electrical demand for two different scenarios is presented in the study. The study period is 1993-2010 and 1993 has been taken as base year. In this planning study MAED program was used as well as all available information from INDEC (National Statistical Body), CAMMESA (Electrical Market Company) and Ministery of Economy. The results in the base year achieved an accuracy higher than 98%. The scenarios described two different rates of growth and electrical penetration in energy uses. (author). 3 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

  17. Development process of subjects society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Reshetnichenko

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background due to defining the role of people in the development of society and the almost complete absence of scientific management processes capable of progressive development of both individuals and social communities, and nations, and civilization in general. In order to overcome inherent subjectivist methodology of knowledge, psyholohizatorskyh, hiperpolityzovanyh and utilitarian approach, the authors proposed a three-tier system of business processes of society. The conceptual core of the approach consists in the detection task as logical - mathematical laws of subjects of primary, secondary and higher levels of development, and on the mechanisms of their formation and practice. The solution of the tasks allowed the authors to reveal the structure of both the ascending and descending processes of economic society. Thus, the analysis of individual carriers upward changes as «individual», «individuality», «person» and «personality» showed conditionality determination of their activities with «anthropometric», «ethnic», «demographic» and «ideological» mechanisms. Nature as common carriers downstream changes revealed using correlative related «groups», «group «, «groups» and «communities» whose activity is due to «vitalistic», «education», «professional» and «stratification» mechanisms. To disclose the nature and organization of secondary and higher levels of economic society by the authors introduced the category of «citizen», «heneralista», «human space», «human galactic» ‘formation and development is causing «status», «Persona logical», «humanocentric», «institutional», «cluster», «kontaminatsiyni» and other mechanisms. One of the main achievements of the work, the authors consider the possibility of further development and practical implementation of new quality management processes of economic society based multimodal dialectical logic.

  18. THE UNREASONABLE WEAKNESS OF R -PROCESS COSMIC RAYS IN THE NEUTRON-STAR-MERGER NUCLEOSYNTHESIS SCENARIO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kyutoku, Koutarou [Interdisciplinary Theoretical Science (iTHES) Research Group, RIKEN, Wako, Saitama 351-0198 (Japan); Ioka, Kunihito, E-mail: koutarou.kyutoku@riken.jp [Center for Gravitational Physics, Yukawa Institute for Theoretical Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto, 606-8502 (Japan)

    2016-08-10

    We reach the robust conclusion that, by combining the observed cosmic rays of r -process elements with the fact that the velocity of the neutron-star-merger ejecta is much higher than that of the supernova ejecta, either (1) the reverse shock in the neutron-star-merger ejecta is a very inefficient accelerator that converts less than 0.003% of the ejecta kinetic energy to the cosmic-ray energy or (2) the neutron star merger is not the origin of the Galactic r -process elements. We also find that the acceleration efficiency should be less than 0.1% for the reverse shock of the supernova ejecta with observed cosmic rays lighter than the iron.

  19. 78 FR 64153 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-28

    .... OCC-2012-0016] Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress... the stress test horizon. The variables specified for each scenario generally address economic activity... institutions by November 15th of each year. This document articulates the principles that the OCC will apply to...

  20. 78 FR 72534 - Policy Statement on the Principles for Development and Distribution of Annual Stress Test Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-03

    ... FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE CORPORATION 12 CFR Part 325 Policy Statement on the Principles for... stress test horizon. The variables specified for each scenario generally address economic activity, asset..., 2012, that articulated the principles the FDIC will apply to develop and distribute the stress test...

  1. Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranzelli, Claudia; Vandecasteele, Ine; Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo; Mari i Rivero, Ines; Pelletier, Nathan; Batelaan, Okke; Lavalle, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact. -- Highlights: •A range of scenarios for shale gas development in Poland were modelled. •The impact in terms of land take and competition for land was assessed. •Of land used for industrial purposes, 7–12% was attributed to shale gas extraction. •If unregulated, 24% of well pads were developed within protected areas. •The legislative framework can have a major influence on overall environmental impact

  2. Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildtrup, Jens; Audsley, E.; Fekete-Farkas, M.

    2006-01-01

    Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts...... on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise...... downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. In the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified...

  3. Assessment of post closure radioactive safety for the Korean reference disposal system: development of scenarios and quantitative assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, C. H.; Hwang, Y. S.; Lee, Y. M.

    2005-01-01

    The total system performance assessment (TSPA) on the Korean reference disposal system has been performed for different types of scenarios. Firstly two reference scenarios, the natural discharge and well ones are developed assessed. The natural discharge scenario assumes that a radionuclide is released from a waste container with an average lifetime of 1,000 years by intruding groundwater to a biosphere through a bentonite buffer and a natural barrier composed of a fractured porous rock and a major water conducting feature (MWCF). The well scenario describes that a radionuclide passing through a buffer enters a fractured rock which is intersected with a drinking well. Two scenarios are named as R1 and R2 respectively. The third scenario is for the initial waste container failure case. A waste container is apt to have initial defects during manufacturing and transportation to a deposition hole. The probability function of the ratio of waste container failure is assumed based on the engineering sense. The rest of waste containers are assumed to have full function of isolation of hazardous nuclides during the lifetime. This initial container failure scenario (ICF) has two different variations: one with a lifetime of 1,000 years ana the other with 10,000 years. Two variations are assessed for two different biosphere, natural discharge and well. The forth one is to assess the impact of excavation disturbed zones. Deposition tunnels are excavated by tunnel boring machine (TBM) or controlled blast (CB). The disturbed zone in assumed to be 30 cm and 1 meter for TBN and CB respectively. Six cases are developed for the EDZ scenarios considering all possible combination of changes in permeability a fracture aperture, and a porosity of a fractured rock. The fifth scenario stipulates the change of long term climate (LTC). The ice age assumed to be prevailed again after a few tens of thousand years. The advent of the ice age alters groundwater composition, pathways, and most

  4. Biochemical Process Development and Integration | Bioenergy | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biochemical Process Development and Integration Biochemical Process Development and Integration Our conversion and separation processes to pilot-scale integrated process development and scale up. We also Publications Accounting for all sugar produced during integrated production of ethanol from lignocellulosic

  5. Software Development Standard Processes (SDSP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavin, Milton L.; Wang, James J.; Morillo, Ronald; Mayer, John T.; Jamshidian, Barzia; Shimizu, Kenneth J.; Wilkinson, Belinda M.; Hihn, Jairus M.; Borgen, Rosana B.; Meyer, Kenneth N.; hide

    2011-01-01

    A JPL-created set of standard processes is to be used throughout the lifecycle of software development. These SDSPs cover a range of activities, from management and engineering activities, to assurance and support activities. These processes must be applied to software tasks per a prescribed set of procedures. JPL s Software Quality Improvement Project is currently working at the behest of the JPL Software Process Owner to ensure that all applicable software tasks follow these procedures. The SDSPs are captured as a set of 22 standards in JPL s software process domain. They were developed in-house at JPL by a number of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) residing primarily within the Engineering and Science Directorate, but also from the Business Operations Directorate and Safety and Mission Success Directorate. These practices include not only currently performed best practices, but also JPL-desired future practices in key thrust areas like software architecting and software reuse analysis. Additionally, these SDSPs conform to many standards and requirements to which JPL projects are beholden.

  6. Scenarios about development and implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; Van Arem, B.; Van Wee, G.P.; Homem De Almeida Rodriguez Correia, G.

    2016-01-01

    Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, less is known about when automated vehicles will hit the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transportation technology will affect transportation demand and planning. This study identified through scenario analysis

  7. Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands : Scenarios for 2030 and 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; van Arem, B.; van Wee, G.P.; Homem de Almeida Correia, G.

    2017-01-01

    Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to

  8. Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: Scenarios for 2030 and 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milakis, D.; Snelder, M.; Arem, B. van; Wee, B. van; Almeida Correia, G.H. de

    2017-01-01

    Automated driving technology is emerging. Yet, little is known in the literature about when automated vehicles will reach the market, how penetration rates will evolve and to what extent this new transport technology will affect transport demand and planning. This study uses scenario analysis to

  9. Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I European and Mediterranean scenario development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Patel, M.; Rothman, D.

    2006-01-01

    Desertification in the Northern Mediterranean region can be effectively managed only through an understanding of the principal ecological, socio-cultural and economic drivers. Scenarios can play an important role in the understanding of such a complex system. Following the fundamentals of Integrated

  10. Technology development life cycle processes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beck, David Franklin

    2013-05-01

    This report and set of appendices are a collection of memoranda originally drafted in 2009 for the purpose of providing motivation and the necessary background material to support the definition and integration of engineering and management processes related to technology development. At the time there was interest and support to move from Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) Level One (ad hoc processes) to Level Three. As presented herein, the material begins with a survey of open literature perspectives on technology development life cycles, including published data on %E2%80%9Cwhat went wrong.%E2%80%9D The main thrust of the material presents a rational expose%CC%81 of a structured technology development life cycle that uses the scientific method as a framework, with further rigor added from adapting relevant portions of the systems engineering process. The material concludes with a discussion on the use of multiple measures to assess technology maturity, including consideration of the viewpoint of potential users.

  11. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  12. Scenario development of long-term evolution for deep hydrochemical conditions in Horonobe area, Hokkaido, Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwatsuki, Teruki; Ishii, Eiichi; Niizato, Tadafumi

    2009-01-01

    A methodology to estimate long-term hydrochemical evolution of deep underground is indispensable for the safe geological isolation of high-level radioactive waste (HLW). This study demonstrates the methodology by illustrating scenarios of past geological events, processes, and their interrelationships with present-day hydrochemical conditions. Besides, we infer long-term variations of groundwater chemistry at Horonobe, Hokkaido, Japan. The region is underlain mainly by Neogene to Quaternary marine sedimentary rocks, (the Wakkanai Formation (Fm) and the overlying Koetoi Fm: siliceous and diatomaceous mudstones). During various events in the geological past, such as deposition, compaction, uplift, and denudation, and the more recent Neotectonic activities in this area, highly permeable hydrogeological structures formed at depths not over than 400 m below ground level in the Wakkanai Fm. The hydrogeological system can be subdivided into three hydrogeological sub-systems: (1) overlying, relatively low permeability Koetoi Fm., (2) highly permeable, upper Wakkanai Fm at depths less than 400 m and (3) relatively low permeability Wakkanai Fm, at depths greater than 400 m. The present-day hydrochemical conditions in each sub-system have been influenced by hydrogeological properties and hydraulic conditions over a long period. In subsystems 1 and 2, recharging with meteoric water flushed connate seawater during uplifting and denudation during the last 1 Ma. In contrast, fossil seawater with one-third to one-half the salinity of present-day seawater has been preserved in subsystem 3. The relatively low permeability sequence in sub-system 3 was formed by the compaction of diatomaceous mudstone during subsidence prior to 1.0 Ma. After that, changes of climatic conditions and geographical features would not have influenced groundwater flow. The groundwater chemistry evolved from seawater during long-term geochemical diagenesis in a relatively closed system. The long

  13. Responses in Arctic marine carbon cycle processes: conceptual scenarios and implications for ecosystem function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen S. Findlay

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic Ocean is one of the fastest changing oceans, plays an important role in global carbon cycling and yet is a particularly challenging ocean to study. Hence, observations tend to be relatively sparse in both space and time. How the Arctic functions, geophysically, but also ecologically, can have significant consequences for the internal cycling of carbon, and subsequently influence carbon export, atmospheric CO2 uptake and food chain productivity. Here we assess the major carbon pools and associated processes, specifically summarizing the current knowledge of each of these processes in terms of data availability and ranges of rates and values for four geophysical Arctic Ocean domains originally described by Carmack & Wassmann (2006: inflow shelves, which are Pacific-influenced and Atlantic-influenced; interior, river-influenced shelves; and central basins. We attempt to bring together knowledge of the carbon cycle with the ecosystem within each of these different geophysical settings, in order to provide specialist information in a holistic context. We assess the current state of models and how they can be improved and/or used to provide assessments of the current and future functioning when observational data are limited or sparse. In doing so, we highlight potential links in the physical oceanographic regime, primary production and the flow of carbon within the ecosystem that will change in the future. Finally, we are able to highlight priority areas for research, taking a holistic pan-Arctic approach.

  14. Development and application of a tree-code in simulation scenarios of the plasma-wall interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berberich, Benjamin

    2012-03-01

    Processes in the plasma edge layer of magnetic fusion devices occur on widely disparate length- and time-scales. Also recently developed features in this particular region, such as stochastic magnetic fields, underline the necessity for three dimensional, full-kinetic simulation tools. Contemporary programs often deploy ad hoc assumptions and approximations for microscopic phenomena for which self-consistent ab initio models in principle exist, but are still computationally too expensive or complex to implement. Recently, mesh-free methods have matured into a new class of tools for such first-principles computations which thanks to their geometric flexibility are highly promising for tackling complicated TOKAMAK regions. In this work we have develop the massively parallel Tree-Code PEPC-B (Pretty Efficient Parallel Coulomb solver) into a new tool for plasma material interaction studies. After a brief overview of the working principles of Tree-Codes two main topic groups are addressed: First the leap-frog Boris integration scheme is discussed and its numerical limitations are pointed out. To overcome these limitations the method is enhanced to a guiding-center integrator. As a proof of principal, numerical experiments are conducted reproducing the anticipated drift kinetic aspects of particle orbits. It turns out that this new technique is much less sensitive to large time steps than the original concept was. One major drawback of mesh-free methods which hinders their direct use for plasma-edge simulations is the difficulty in representing solid structures and associated boundary conditions. Therefore, an alternative concept is proposed using charge carrying Wall-Particles, which fits naturally in the mesh-free doctrine. These developments incorporate the second main topic group of this report. To prove the physical correctness of this new idea, a quasi one dimensional plasma-wall interface scenario is chosen. By studying the system with great detail, good agreement

  15. Towards an optimal adaptation of exposure to NOAA assessment methodology in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS): the challenges and the decision-making process

    Science.gov (United States)

    López de Ipiña, JM; Vaquero, C.; Gutierrez-Cañas, C.

    2017-06-01

    It is expected a progressive increase of the industrial processes that manufacture of intermediate (iNEPs) and end products incorporating ENMs (eNEPs) to bring about improved properties. Therefore, the assessment of occupational exposure to airborne NOAA will migrate, from the simple and well-controlled exposure scenarios in research laboratories and ENMs production plants using innovative production technologies, to much more complex exposure scenarios located around processes of manufacture of eNEPs that, in many cases, will be modified conventional production processes. Here will be discussed some of the typical challenging situations in the process of risk assessment of inhalation exposure to NOAA in Multi-Source Industrial Scenarios (MSIS), from the basis of the lessons learned when confronted to those scenarios in the frame of some European and Spanish research projects.

  16. The Process of Trust Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jagd, Søren; Højland, Jeppe

    in management among employees. Trust is found to be higher among employees interacting regularly with managers, as in the project coordination group. It is found that personal relations are very important for the development of trust. The success of the project may be explained by the involvement of an ‘elite...... and discuss with colleagues from other departments and develop personal knowledge of each other....... by high trust and co-operation? In this paper we explore the process of trust development during an organisational change project in a Danish SME by looking at two kinds of trust relations: employee trust in management and trust relations among employees. We find substantial differences in trust...

  17. The forecast scenario of rural territories infrastructure development (on the example of the Volga federal district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery Nikolaevich Zekin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ point of view at the forecast of rural territories infrastructure development in Permskiy krai, Udmurtia and Kirovskaya Oblast by considering of innovative technology implementation is given in this paper. The improvement of rural people life conditions has been planned on the basis of this research. The indexes for life quality of rural people assessment were determined. The main ways for their increasing were defined. An important role in this process belongs to the small innovative enterprises, which develop new technologies and forward them to rural enterprises. It reduces risks because of their implementation and promotes the sustainable development of rural territories. It is planned that on the basis of the authors’ method of innovations application, the subsidized regions using their potential will sell their products on the external market of countries accessed to WTO and thereby will provide population with employment and increase its standard of living.

  18. Climate change impacts on water availability: developing regional scenarios for agriculture of the Former Soviet Union countries of Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.

    2010-12-01

    Water is the major factor, limiting agriculture of the five Former Soviet Union (FSU) of Central Asia. Elevated topography prevents moist and warm air from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from entering the region.With exception of Kazakhstan, agriculture is generally restricted to oases and irrigated lands along the major rivers and canals. Availability of water for irrigation is the major factor constraining agriculture in the region, and conflicts over water are not infrequent. The current water crisis in the region is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. In multiple locations, planned and autonomous adaptations to climate change have already resulted in changes in agriculture, such as a dramatic increase in irrigation, or shift in crops towards the ones better suited for warmer and dryer climate; however, it is hard to differentiate between the effects of overall management improvement and the avoidance of climate-related losses. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and

  19. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  20. Future scenario development within life cycle assessment of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bisinella, Valentina

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is an acknowledged tool for quantifying the sustainability of waste management solutions. However, the use of LCA for decision-making is hindered by the strong dependency of the LCA results on the assumptions regarding the future conditions in which the waste management...... solutions will operate. Future scenario methods from the management engineering field may provide valid approaches for formulating consistent assumptions on future conditions for the waste management system modelled with LCA. However, the standardized LCA procedure currently does not offer much guidance...... field. The quantitative modelling implications were tested within real-scale LCA models focusing on the management of residual waste in Denmark. In a wide range of scenarios, this thesis addressed the influence on the LCA model results of realistic technology and waste composition uncertainties, as well...

  1. Use of simulation to examine operational scenarios in a lathe glovebox for the processing of nuclear materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McQueen, M.; Ashok, P.; Cox, D.J.; Pittman, P.C.; Turner, C.J.; Hollen, R.M.

    2001-01-01

    In the process of dispositioning nuclear materials into storage, the use of a robot eliminates the safety risks to humans and increases productivity. The current process of processing typically uses humans to handle the hazardous material using gloves through glove-ports. This process is not only dangerous, but also costly, because humans can only be subjected to limited exposure to nuclear materials due to the actual Occupational Radiation Exposure (ORE) and thus have a fixed amount of dedicated workload per unit time. Use of robotics reduces ORE to humans and increases productivity. The Robotics Research Group at the University of Texas at Austin has created a simulation model of a conceptual application that uses a robot inside the glovebox to handle hazardous materials for lathe machining process operations in cooperation with Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL). The actions of the robot include preparing the parts for entry into the box, weighing the parts, positioning the parts into the headstock chuck of the lathe, handling the subsequent processed parts, changing and replacing the lathe tools and chuck assemblies are necessary to process the material. The full three-dimensional geometric model of the simulation demonstrates the normal expected operation from beginning to end and verifies the path plans for the robot. The emphasis of this paper is to report additional findings from the simulation model, which is currently being expanded to include failure mode analysis, error recovery, and other what-if scenarios involved in unexpected, or unplanned, operation of the robot and lathe process inside of the glovebox.

  2. Plume dispersion in four pine thinning scenarios: development of a simple pheromone dispersion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holly Peterson; Harold Thistle; Brian Lamb; Gene Allwine; Steve Edburg; Brian Strom

    2010-01-01

    A unique field campaign was conducted in 2004 to examine how changes in stand density may affect dispersion of insect pheromones in forest canopies. Over a l4-day period, 126 tracer tests were performed, and conditions ranged from an unthinned loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) canopy through a series of thinning scenarios with basal areas of32.l, 23.0, and 16.1 m2ha-l.ln...

  3. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  4. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  5. Development of integrated scenarios to attain the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy; Entwicklung von integrierten Szenarien zur Erreichung der umweltbezogenen Ziele der Nationalen Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fink, Alexander; Rammig, Hanna [ScMI AG Paderborn (Germany)

    2013-02-15

    The national sustainability strategy (NHS) shall significantly shape the direction of the sustainable development in Germany. It is aim of the project ''Development of integrated scenarios to attain the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy'' to develop different options, of how to possibly approach the environmental aims of the national sustainability strategy. In a first step external scenarios were developed, which describe the national sustainability strategy. In a first step external scenarios were developed, which describe the external context for the embodiment of sustainability. In a second step, option scenarios which show alternatives for different actor groups were built for the three areas ''Leisure time, living and alimentation''. In a third step the combination of the different external scenarios and internal options has been conducted, how do the different solution areas fit to the external scenarios.

  6. Process Development for Nanostructured Photovoltaics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elam, Jeffrey W.

    2015-01-01

    Photovoltaic manufacturing is an emerging industry that promises a carbon-free, nearly limitless source of energy for our nation. However, the high-temperature manufacturing processes used for conventional silicon-based photovoltaics are extremely energy-intensive and expensive. This high cost imposes a critical barrier to the widespread implementation of photovoltaic technology. Argonne National Laboratory and its partners recently invented new methods for manufacturing nanostructured photovoltaic devices that allow dramatic savings in materials, process energy, and cost. These methods are based on atomic layer deposition, a thin film synthesis technique that has been commercialized for the mass production of semiconductor microelectronics. The goal of this project was to develop these low-cost fabrication methods for the high efficiency production of nanostructured photovoltaics, and to demonstrate these methods in solar cell manufacturing. We achieved this goal in two ways: 1) we demonstrated the benefits of these coatings in the laboratory by scaling-up the fabrication of low-cost dye sensitized solar cells; 2) we used our coating technology to reduce the manufacturing cost of solar cells under development by our industrial partners.

  7. A comparison between the example reference biosphere model ERB 2B and a process-based model: simulation of a natural release scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almahayni, T

    2014-12-01

    The BIOMASS methodology was developed with the objective of constructing defensible assessment biospheres for assessing potential radiological impacts of radioactive waste repositories. To this end, a set of Example Reference Biospheres were developed to demonstrate the use of the methodology and to provide an international point of reference. In this paper, the performance of the Example Reference Biosphere model ERB 2B associated with the natural release scenario, discharge of contaminated groundwater to the surface environment, was evaluated by comparing its long-term projections of radionuclide dynamics and distribution in a soil-plant system to those of a process-based, transient advection-dispersion model (AD). The models were parametrised with data characteristic of a typical rainfed winter wheat crop grown on a sandy loam soil under temperate climate conditions. Three safety-relevant radionuclides, (99)Tc, (129)I and (237)Np with different degree of sorption were selected for the study. Although the models were driven by the same hydraulic (soil moisture content and water fluxes) and radiological (Kds) input data, their projections were remarkably different. On one hand, both models were able to capture short and long-term variation in activity concentration in the subsoil compartment. On the other hand, the Reference Biosphere model did not project any radionuclide accumulation in the topsoil and crop compartments. This behaviour would underestimate the radiological exposure under natural release scenarios. The results highlight the potential role deep roots play in soil-to-plant transfer under a natural release scenario where radionuclides are released into the subsoil. When considering the relative activity and root depth profiles within the soil column, much of the radioactivity was taken up into the crop from the subsoil compartment. Further improvements were suggested to address the limitations of the Reference Biosphere model presented in this paper

  8. Combining integrated models and participatory methods to quantify water and agricultural trade-offs linked to different rural development scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivas, David; Willaarts, Barbara; García, Ángel de Miguel; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2017-04-01

    This study explores the water and agricultural tradeoffs linked to three different rural development scenarios in the Cega-Eresma-Adaja basin (CEA) in Central Spain. Agriculture is a key socioeconomic activity in CEA, and nearly 44% of the basin is devoted to croplands and pastures. Irrigated agriculture accounts for 12% of the cropland area and is currently using over 84% of available water resources. To define the three scenarios for CEA, we conducted a workshop with local stakeholders to infer how contrasting evolutions of EU agricultural, water and environmental policies could affect the local land use and agricultural management using participatory mapping techniques. The three scenarios reflect 1) a business as usual (BAU) rural development; 2) a land sharing strategy (LSH); and 3) a land sparing (LSP) situation. The integrated Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the changes in water use (hm^3/year) and agricultural productivity (ton/year) under each scenario. To account for changes in agricultural land use and management, the model integrates a large set of agricultural patterns obtained from combining high resolution remote sensing images (20m x 20m) for the years 2011-2015, agricultural productivity from survey by municipality and land use information obtained from the national map SIOSE2011 (1:50.000). Model calibration and sensitivity analysis were performed using SWAT-CUP/SUFI2 The period of the years 2005 to 2008 were used for parameter calibration and validation period extending between 2009 and 2014. The predicted daily streamflow presents a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and a NS coefficient of 0.81. The preliminary results reveal that under a BAU and a LSP scenario agricultural production and water demand will increase significantly (>25%) despite the improvements in water use efficiency and agricultural productivity. Under these scenarios, allocated water is likely to exceed the natural renewable water resources compromising the

  9. Developing sustainable management scenarios for Saharan and Arabian aquifer systems using GRACE data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M.; Sultan, M.; Save, H.

    2016-12-01

    Three sources (CSR and JPL Mascons solutions; CSR spherical harmonic fields) of monthly (04/2002 to 03/2016) GRACE-derived TWS estimates were used to develop sustainable utilization scenarios for Saharan and Arabian aquifer systems. These aquifer systems include the Saq Aquifer System in Saudi Arabia (SAS; area: 0.46×106 km2), Nubian Aquifer System in Egypt (NAS; area: 0.66×106 km2), and the Northwestern Saharan Aquifer System in Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya (NWSAS; area: 1.2×106 km2). Piecewise trend analysis of GRACE-derived TWS time series over SAS showed steady-state TWS conditions (0.47 mm/yr; 0.22 km3/yr) during 2002-2006 (Stage I), significant TWS depletion (-13.36 mm/yr; -6.15 km3/yr) during 2006-2012 (Stage II), and signs of replenishment (-3.00 mm/yr; -1.60 km3/yr) during 2012-2016 (Stage III). The pronounced depletion in Stage II is largely related to excessive groundwater extraction mainly for irrigation purposes (2006: irrigated areas/extraction: 502,338 hectare/8.4 km3/yr) compared to those reported in Stage III (2015: irrigated areas/extraction: 326,719 hectare/7.9 km3/yr). Sustainable utilization of SAS waters can be achieved if extraction is reduced to 7.7 km3/yr. The NWSAS showed steady-state conditions (0.02 mm/yr; 0.02 km3/yr) during the 2002-2006 period followed by significant TWS depletions (-4.90 mm/yr; -5.85 km3/yr) due to progressive increase in groundwater extraction (1970: 0.6 km3/yr; 2000: 2.5 km3/yr; 2010: 3 km3/yr). Sustainable utilization of the NWSAS can be achieved if extraction is reduced to 2.5 km3/yr. Trend analysis of GRACE-derived TWS time series over NAS reveals a good correspondence with fluctuations in Lake Nasser Levels (LNL) (2002-2007: LNL/TWS: 177 m/-2.72 mm/yr; 2008-2012: LNL/TWS: 175 m/-7.35 mm/yr; 2013-2016: LNL/TWS: 179 m/11.35 mm/yr) suggesting a causal effect. Given that the average annual (04/2002 to 03/2016) depletion in TWS is -3.24 mm/yr (-2.13 km3/yr), and the average annual extraction is 2.50 km3/yr, we

  10. Development of Scientific Simulation 3D Full Wave ICRF Code for Stellarators and Heating/CD Scenarios Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vdovin V.L.

    2005-08-15

    In this report we describe theory and 3D full wave code description for the wave excitation, propagation and absorption in 3-dimensional (3D) stellarator equilibrium high beta plasma in ion cyclotron frequency range (ICRF). This theory forms a basis for a 3D code creation, urgently needed for the ICRF heating scenarios development for the operated LHD, constructed W7-X, NCSX and projected CSX3 stellarators, as well for re evaluation of ICRF scenarios in operated tokamaks and in the ITER . The theory solves the 3D Maxwell-Vlasov antenna-plasma-conducting shell boundary value problem in the non-orthogonal flux coordinates ({Psi}, {theta}, {var_phi}), {Psi} being magnetic flux function, {theta} and {var_phi} being the poloidal and toroidal angles, respectively. All basic physics, like wave refraction, reflection and diffraction are self consistently included, along with the fundamental ion and ion minority cyclotron resonances, two ion hybrid resonance, electron Landau and TTMP absorption. Antenna reactive impedance and loading resistance are also calculated and urgently needed for an antenna -generator matching. This is accomplished in a real confining magnetic field being varying in a plasma major radius direction, in toroidal and poloidal directions, through making use of the hot dense plasma wave induced currents with account to the finite Larmor radius effects. We expand the solution in Fourier series over the toroidal ({var_phi}) and poloidal ({theta}) angles and solve resulting ordinary differential equations in a radial like {Psi}-coordinate by finite difference method. The constructed discretization scheme is divergent-free one, thus retaining the basic properties of original equations. The Fourier expansion over the angle coordinates has given to us the possibility to correctly construct the ''parallel'' wave number k{sub //}, and thereby to correctly describe the ICRF waves absorption by a hot plasma. The toroidal harmonics are tightly

  11. Perspectives on the Salience and Magnitude of Dam Impacts for Hydro Development Scenarios in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desiree Tullos

    2010-06-01

    Survey results indicate differences in the perceived salience and magnitude of impacts across both expert groups and dam scenarios. Furthermore, surveys indicate that stakeholder perceptions changed as the information provided regarding dam impacts became more specific, suggesting that stakeholder evaluation may be influenced by quality of information. Finally, qualitative comments from the survey reflect some of the challenges of interdisciplinary dam assessment, including cross-disciplinary cooperation, data standardisation and weighting, and the distribution and potential mitigation of impacts. Given the complexity of data and perceptions around dam impacts, decision-support tools that integrate the objective magnitude and perceived salience of impacts are required urgently.

  12. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  13. Improving the policy of public procurements for development of science cities: agent-oriented modeling and scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir I. Abramov

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to assess the impact of policy change scenarios in the sphere of public procurements on the development of science cities. Methods simulation modeling agentoriented modeling. Results depressive trends of singleindustry townsrsquo development are one of the key problems in the development of Russia. At the same time the procedure for identifying suppliers proposed by the system of public procurements does not imply mechanisms that would favor the development of science cities. The article analyzes the approaches to estimate the effectiveness of the public procurements system. It is determined that the agentoriented approach is one of the most promising methods of public procurements management. Through simulation modeling in particular agentoriented approach the article presents the results of scenario experiments. It is established that public procurements can act not only as an instrument of effective expenditure of budgetary funds but also as a mechanism of economic development of territories. Although the presented experiments showed a decrease in the level of savings as a result of competitive procedures additionalnbsp socioeconomic effects were achieved due to the localization of procurements participants in the science citiesrsquo territory. Among other things the scenarios suggest reduction of transportation costs and consequently the traffic flow between Moscow and science cities which would help to reduce the load on the transport networks of megacities. Scientific novelty for the first time it was shown that the tool of public procurements can serve for stimulation and maintenance of the development of science cities and singleindustry towns and become a key factor in their development. The agentoriented model of the public procurements system functioning by the example of Zhukovskiy science city was developed which allows quantitative estimation of the consequences of introducing various mechanisms for improving the

  14. An endothermic chemical process facility coupled to a high temperature reactor. Part I: Proposed accident scenarios within the chemical plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Nicholas R.; Seker, Volkan; Revankar, Shripad T.; Downar, Thomas J.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The paper identifies possible transient and accident scenarios in a coupled PBMR and thermochemical sulfur cycle based hydrogen plant. ► Key accidents scenarios were investigated through qualitative reasoning. ► The accidents were found to constitute loss of heat sink event for the nuclear reactor. - Abstract: Hydrogen generation using a high temperature nuclear reactor as a thermal driving vector is a promising future option for energy carrier production. In this scheme, the heat from the nuclear reactor drives an endothermic water-splitting plant, via coupling, through an intermediate heat exchanger. Quantitative study of the possible operational or accident events within the coupled plant is largely absent from the literature. In this paper, seven unique case studies are proposed based on a thorough review of possible events. The case studies are: (1) feed flow failure from one section of the chemical plant to another with an accompanying parametric study of the temperature in an individual reaction chamber, (2) product flow failure (recycle) within the chemical plant, (3) rupture or explosion within the chemical plant, (4) nuclear reactor helium inlet overcooling due to a process holding tank failure, (5) helium inlet overcooling as an anticipated transient without emergency nuclear reactor shutdown, (6) total failure of the chemical plant, (7) control rod insertion in the nuclear reactor. The qualitative parameters of each case study are outlined as well as the basis in literature. A previously published modeling scheme is described and adapted for application as a simulation platform for these transient events. The results of the quantitative case studies are described within part II of this paper.

  15. Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Chen, Weiping; Liao, Yuehua; Luo, Yueping

    2017-12-01

    Socioeconomic development in lake watersheds is closely related with lake nutrient pollution. As the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake has been experiencing an increase in nutrient loading and a growing risk of eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the likely impacts of the socioeconomic development of the Dongting Lake watershed on the phosphorous pollution in the lake. We estimated the contributions from different sources and sub-watersheds to the total phosphorous (TP) export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed under two most likely socioeconomic development scenarios. Moreover, we predicted the likely permissible and actual TP loadings to the Dongting Lake. Under both two scenarios, three secondary sub-watersheds-the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area-are expected to dominate the contribution to the TP export from the Dongting Lake watershed in 2020. Three primary sub-watersheds-the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds-are predicted to be the major contributors to the TP loading from the entire watershed. The two scenarios are expected to have a slight difference in TP export and lake TP loading. Livestock husbandry is expected to be the predominant anthropogenic TP source in each of the sub-watersheds under both scenarios. Compared to 2010, permissible TP loading is not expected to increase but actual TP loading is predicted to grow significantly in 2020. Our study provides methodologies to identify the key sources and regions of lake nutrient loading from watersheds with complex socioeconomic context, and to reveal the potential influences of socioeconomic development on nutrient pollution in lake watersheds.

  16. The Importance of Animal Source Foods for Nutrient Sufficiency in the Developing World: The Zambia Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhiying; Goldsmith, Peter D; Winter-Nelson, Alex

    2016-05-05

    There have been successful interventions fortifying staple foods to mobilize micronutrients as well as agricultural efforts to raise yields of staple foods to increase food availability. Zambia serves as an interesting case study because since 1961 there has been a notable decline in the availability of animal source foods (ASFs) and pulses and a significant increase in the supply of cassava and vegetable oils. The shift in food availability was partly attributed to the agricultural success in high-yielding and drought-resistant varieties that made cassava and oil crops more affordable and readily available. In this research, we explore another policy strategy that involves ASF as a mechanism to help remedy micronutrient inadequacies in a population. A scenario modeling analysis compares the changes in the nutrient profile of the Zambian diet through adding either staple plant source foods (PSFs) or ASFs. The scenarios under study involve the addition of (1) 18 fl oz of whole cow's milk; (2) 60 g of beef, 30 g of chicken, and 5 g of beef liver; (3) milk plus meat; or (4) 83 g of maize flour, 123 g of cassava, and other staple PSF, that is, isocaloric to the "milk + meat" group. The findings alert program planners and policy makers to the value of increasing the availability, accessibility, and utilization of ASF to simultaneously address multiple nutrient deficiencies, as well as the nutrition challenges that remain when expanding the availability of plant-based staples. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  18. Development of Applicable Test Scenario by the Grid Simulator of a Functional Test Bench

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farajzadehbibalan, Saber

    In this thesis, a data-driven testing procedure for wind turbine generators is developed. The procedure generates a data set for a hardware-in-the-loop testing setup at a test facility. The goal is to shorten validation process, prevent damage from highly dangerous grid tests, and conduct different...... tests. The proposed procedure deploys a multivariate statistical model of the power grid derived from the wind farm's standpoint. A practical data set of an operational wind farm is available which is logged during the years of 2013 and 2014 for model identification and validation, respectively....... The first step of modeling is deriving the model from the standpoint of an arbitrary wind turbine generator utilizing dynamic principal component analysis. The model is the transformed data samples into a new projected space, i.e. latent space, as the combination of the principal components and the scores...

  19. Definition of Storage Complex for the Technological Development Plant and the Evaluation Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recreo, F.; Hurtado, A.; Eguilior, S.

    2015-01-01

    This report intends a geological description of the site for the Technological Development Plant that CIUDEN is conducting in Hontomín (Burgos) for the improvement, both technological and economic, of the key aspects of geological storage of CO2 in deep permeable formations. Safety studies of this site began in 2008 with a preliminary appraisal of several pre-selected areas in the western part of the so-called "Cantabrian Basin". However, the modelling of the processes acting in the permanent sequestration of CO2 requires a much more detailed knowledge of the geological formations that form the complex storage and of its lithologic, petrophysical, hydrogeological, geochemical and geomechanical characteristics. This report presents a summary of the geological and hydrogeological information available from the documentation provided by the Geological Survey of Spain (IGME) and the published studies conducted in the area for oil research campaigns between 1965-68 and 1991–96. This information has allowed to deriving a preliminary conceptualization of what would be the system model of the geological system where the Technological Development Plant will be installed as well as identifying the remaining uncertainties.

  20. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  1. Electronics and telecommunications in Poland, issues and perspectives: Part III. Innovativeness, applications, economy, development scenarios, politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modelski, Józef; Romaniuk, Ryszard

    2010-09-01

    Electronics is under development in this country in an organized and institutional way since the beginning of 30-ties of the previous century. It grew up from electrical engineering of weak currents and its first name used popularly was communications. It was time when television was born and the radio was maturing. Electronics is a branch of research and technology which deals with generation and processing of electrical and electromagnetic signals. A subject of telecommunications is signal transmission for a distance. Electronics and telecommunications (ET) includes or is combined with other branches like: microelectronics, radioelectronics, optoelectronics, photonics, acoustoelectronics, magnetronics, bioelectronics, energoelectronics, material engineering, semiconductor physics, automation and robotics, mechatronics and microsystems, informatics, teleinformatics, software engineering and other. Devices and functional systems of ET such as computers, data warehouses, cell phones, TV sets, Internet, GPS are build of electronic components and circuits. ET is a branch which belongs to hi-tech area, where the products gather a large load of knowledge of value overcoming frequently the price of work and material. ET has recently turned to an active participant of the processes of generation, storing, processing, transportation, distribution and usage of knowledge in the society. ET started to create artificial intelligence, co-creates intellectual property, searches for knowledge in big data sets, aids medicine, extends virtual/augmented reality, builds Internet of persons and things, strengthens security, protects natural environment, facilitates our life, aids our decisions, activates individuals, equalizes chances, provides convenient personal communications and access to data, starts building a penetrating ubiquitous infrastructure, ceases to be only a branch of technology, grows into the social space, touches culture, sociology, psychology and art. Such an

  2. Diagnostic health risk assessment of electronic waste on the general population in developing countries' scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frazzoli, Chiara; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Dragone, Roberto; Mantovani, Alberto

    2010-01-01

    E-waste is the generic name for technological waste. Even though aspects related to e-waste environmental pollution and human exposure are known, scientific assessments are missing so far on the actual risks for health sustainability of the general population exposed to e-waste scenarios, such as illicit dumping, crude recycling and improper treatment and disposal. In fact, further to occupational and direct local exposure, e-waste scenarios may impact on the environment-to-food chain, thus eliciting a widespread and repeated exposure of the general population to mixtures of toxicants, mainly toxic chemical elements, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and persistent organic pollutants. In the absence of any clear policy on e-waste flow management, the situation in the e-waste receiver countries may become quite scary; accordingly, here we address a diagnostic risk assessment of health issues potentially elicited by e-waste related mixtures of toxicants. Scientific evidence available so far (mainly from China) is discussed with special attention to the concept of health sustainability, i.e. the poor health burden heritage perpetuated through the mother-to-child dyad. Endocrine disruption and neurotoxicity are specifically considered as examples of main health burden issues relevant to perpetuation through life cycle and across generations; toxicological information are considered along with available data on environmental and food contamination and human internal exposure. The risk from exposure to e-waste related mixtures of toxicants of vulnerable subpopulation like breast-fed infants is given special attention. The diagnostic risk assessment demonstrates how e-waste exposure poses an actual public health emergency, as it may entrain significant health risks also for generations to come. Exposure scenarios as well as specific chemicals of major concern may vary in different contexts; for instance, only limited information is available on e-waste related exposures in

  3. Dose modelling for 'dirty bomb' scenarios - an ARGOS DSS feature under development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, Kasper Grann; Mikkelsen, Torben; Astrup, Poul

    number of people could become directly affected. Current versions of European decision support systems are inapplicable in this context, as they do not take into account the specific characteristics of ’dirty bomb’ scenarios, with respect to radionuclides (dose conversion factors), initial......The world of today is not only facing the risk of accidents (e.g., in nuclear facilities, as considered in the EURANOS project). Also other types of emergencies, notably involving radiological terrorism, pose a threat. Acts of terror would be most likely to take place in a city, where the greatest...... physicochemical forms, blast contaminant transformations, plume height and propagation, deposition velocities, post-deposition migration and clearance, as well as countermeasure effectiveness. This problem is being addressed for a new version of the ARGOS decision support system....

  4. A 'must-go path' scenario for sustainable development and the role of nuclear energy in the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hae-Yong; Kim, Young-In; Lee, Yong-Bum; Ha, Kwi-Seok; Won, Byung-Chool; Lee, Dong-Uk; Hahn, Dohee

    2010-01-01

    An increase in the world population has accelerated the consumption of fossil fuels and deepened the pollution of global environment. As a result of these human activities, it is now difficult to clearly guarantee the sustainable future of humankind. An intuitional 'must-go path' scenario for the sustainable development of human civilization is proposed by extrapolating the human historical data over 30 years between 1970 and 2000. One of the most important parameters in order to realize the 'must-go path' scenario is the sustainability of energy without further pollution. In some countries an expanded use of nuclear energy is advantageous to increase sustainability, but fast reactor technology and closed fuel cycle have to be introduced to make it sustainable. In other countries, the development of cost-effective renewable energy, and the clean use of coal and oil are urgently needed to reduce pollution. The effect of fast nuclear reactor technology on sustainability as an option for near-term energy source is detailed in this paper. More cooperation between countries and worldwide collaboration coordinated by international organizations are essential to make the 'must-go path' scenario real in the upcoming 20 or 30 years.

  5. Homogeneous groups of plants, development scenarios, and basic configurations on the cogeneration systems optimization from the alcohol sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Walter, A.C. da; Bajay, S.V.; Carrillo, J.L.L.

    1990-01-01

    The evaluation of introducing or diffusing new technologies at a macro economic level using micro economic information can be carried out through the careful selection of a small number of homogeneous groups of plants from the point of view of the main technical parameters being considered. In this paper this concept is applied to the study of cogeneration in sugar and alcohol producing plants. The statistical techniques of Cluster Analysis, regressions and mean value testing are used. Basic cogeneration plant designs are proposed for alternatives development scenarios for this industrial branch. These scenarios are based upon differing assumptions about the expansion of alcohol market, use of surplus sugar cane bagasse as saleable commodity, as a fuel or raw material, and price expectations for the sale of surplus power from the cogeneration plants to the local grid. (author)

  6. The development of contemporary European sea bass larvae (Dicentrarchus labrax) is not affected by projected ocean acidification scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespel, Amélie; Zambonino-Infante, José-Luis; Mazurais, David; Koumoundouros, George; Fragkoulis, Stefanos; Quazuguel, Patrick; Huelvan, Christine; Madec, Laurianne; Servili, Arianna; Claireaux, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Ocean acidification is a recognized consequence of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission in the atmosphere. Despite its threat to marine ecosystems, little is presently known about the capacity for fish to respond efficiently to this acidification. In adult fish, acid-base regulatory capacities are believed to be relatively competent to respond to hypercapnic conditions. However, fish in early life stage could be particularly sensitive to environmental factors as organs and important physiological functions become progressively operational during this period. In this study, the response of European sea bass ( Dicentrarchus labrax ) larvae reared under three ocean acidification scenarios, i.e., control (present condition, [Formula: see text] = 590 µatm, pH total = 7.9), low acidification (intermediate IPCC scenario, [Formula: see text] = 980 µatm, pH total = 7.7), and high acidification (most severe IPCC scenario, [Formula: see text] = 1520 µatm, pH total = 7.5) were compared across multiple levels of biological organizations. From 2 to 45 days-post-hatching, the chronic exposure to the different scenarios had limited influence on the survival and growth of the larvae (in the low acidification condition only) and had no apparent effect on the digestive developmental processes. The high acidification condition induced both faster mineralization and reduction in skeletal deformities. Global (microarray) and targeted (qPCR) analysis of transcript levels in whole larvae did not reveal any significant changes in gene expression across tested acidification conditions. Overall, this study suggests that contemporary sea bass larvae are already capable of coping with projected acidification conditions without having to mobilize specific defense mechanisms.

  7. Understanding flexible and distributed software development processes

    OpenAIRE

    Agerfalk, Par J.; Fitzgerald, Brian

    2006-01-01

    peer-reviewed The minitrack on Flexible and Distributed Software Development Processes addresses two important and partially intertwined current themes in software development: process flexibility and globally distributed software development

  8. Teaching Scenario-Based Planning for Sustainable Landscape Development: An Evaluation of Learning Effects in the Cagliari Studio Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the contributions of an intensive educational workshop to advance students’ understanding and skills for collaborative, scenario-based landscape planning. The research design involves a case study workshop with thirty international students and several regional experts as well as a multi-stage, in-process evaluation. The workshop resulted in six different alternative futures for the region of Cagliari, Italy, and a seventh combined version that was considered best by regional reviewers. The students’ learning evaluation showed substantial advances in their relevant understanding and skills. Key aspects of the workshop pedagogy and the evaluation are discussed, and recommendations for future applications presented.

  9. Results of using the NSTX-U Plasma Control System for scenario development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, M. D.; Battaglia, D. J.; Gates, D. A.; Gerhardt, S.; Menard, J.; Mueller, D.; Myers, C. E.; Ferron, J.; Sabbagh, S.; NSTX-U Team

    2016-10-01

    To best use the new capabilities of NSTX-U (e.g., higher toroidal field and additional, more distributed heating and current drive sources) and to achieve the operational goals of the program, major upgrades to the Plasma Control System have been made. These include improvements to vertical control, real-time equilibrium reconstruction, and plasma boundary shape control and the addition of flexible algorithms for beam modulation and gas injection to control the upgraded actuators in real-time, enabling their use in algorithms for stored energy and profile control. Control system commissioning activities have so far focused on vertical position and shape control. The upgraded controllers have been used to explore the vertical stability limits in inner wall limited and diverted discharges, and control of X-point and strike point locations has been demonstrated and is routinely used. A method for controlling the mid-plane inner gap, a challenge for STs, has also been added to improve reproducible control of diverted discharges. A supervisory shutdown handling algorithm has also been commissioned to ramp the plasma down and safely turn off actuators after an event such as loss of vertical control. Use of the upgrades has contributed to achieving 1MA, 0.65T scenarios with greater than 1s pulse length. Work supported by U.S. D.O.E. Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

  10. Exploring scenarios of light pollution from coastal development reaching sea turtle nesting beaches near Cabo Pulmo, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory M. Verutes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available New coastal development may offer economic benefits to resort builders and even local communities, but these projects can also impact local ecosystems, key wildlife, and the draw for tourists. We explore how light from Cabo Cortés, a proposed coastal development in Baja California Sur, Mexico, may alter natural light cues used by sea turtle hatchlings. We adapt a viewshed approach to model exterior light originating from the resort under plausible zoning scenarios. This spatially explicit information allows stakeholders to evaluate the likely impact of alternative development options. Our model suggests that direct light’s ability to reach sea turtle nesting beaches varies greatly by source location and height—with some plausible development scenarios leading to significantly less light pollution than others. Our light pollution maps can enhance decision-making, offering clear guidance on where to avoid elevated lamps or when to recommend lighting restrictions. Communities can use this information to participate in development planning to mitigate ecological, aesthetic and economic impacts from artificial lighting. Though tested in Mexico, our approach and free, open-source software can be applied in other places around the world to better understand and manage the threats of light pollution to sea turtles. Keywords: Artificial light, Viewshed analysis, Sea turtle conservation, Coastal resort management, InVEST

  11. Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

  12. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Application of scenario development method in evaluation of the Koongarra Analogue. Final Report - Volume 16

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skagius, K. [Kemakta Consultants co., Stockholm (Sweden); Wingefors, S. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1992-12-31

    The study of natural analogues has been established as one of the most important methods for validation of concepts and models applied for the assessment of long-term performance of repositories for nuclear waste. The objectives of such studies range from detailed investigations of processes and features on a small scale to attempts of explaining the evolution of whole sites. For studies of specific processes it may well be as important to consider the larger scale settings as boundary conditions. This appreciation of context and an integrated view may be as important for evaluation of most natural analogues as for performance assessments. This is more evident the more the evaluation depends on a knowledge about the evolution of the natural analogue. The attempted formulation of scenarios of the Koongarra Analogue has been based on the external conditions and external features. A rapid weathering of the host rock, i.e. the chlorite schist, is assumed to have started around the onset of the Pleistocene Ice Age (ca 1.6 Ma BP). The eventual oxidation and mobilization of the uranium ore could then have occurred under unsaturated or saturated conditions. This leads to the following major scenarios: (1) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions, with a periodical evolution of the dispersion fan in conjunction with alternating dry (glacial) and wet (interglacial) periods during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (2) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions as a single event, taking place either early or late during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (3)Uranyl Phosphates formed under saturated conditions, in conjunction with periods of higher and lower flow due to the climatic cycling. Although the original objectives may not have been fully achieved, this work is believed to contribute to a better understanding of the Koongarra Analogue as well as to give a basis for further scenario work

  13. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Application of scenario development method in evaluation of the Koongarra Analogue. Final Report - Volume 16

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skagius, K.; Wingefors, S.

    1992-01-01

    The study of natural analogues has been established as one of the most important methods for validation of concepts and models applied for the assessment of long-term performance of repositories for nuclear waste. The objectives of such studies range from detailed investigations of processes and features on a small scale to attempts of explaining the evolution of whole sites. For studies of specific processes it may well be as important to consider the larger scale settings as boundary conditions. This appreciation of context and an integrated view may be as important for evaluation of most natural analogues as for performance assessments. This is more evident the more the evaluation depends on a knowledge about the evolution of the natural analogue. The attempted formulation of scenarios of the Koongarra Analogue has been based on the external conditions and external features. A rapid weathering of the host rock, i.e. the chlorite schist, is assumed to have started around the onset of the Pleistocene Ice Age (ca 1.6 Ma BP). The eventual oxidation and mobilization of the uranium ore could then have occurred under unsaturated or saturated conditions. This leads to the following major scenarios: (1) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions, with a periodical evolution of the dispersion fan in conjunction with alternating dry (glacial) and wet (interglacial) periods during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (2) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions as a single event, taking place either early or late during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (3)Uranyl Phosphates formed under saturated conditions, in conjunction with periods of higher and lower flow due to the climatic cycling. Although the original objectives may not have been fully achieved, this work is believed to contribute to a better understanding of the Koongarra Analogue as well as to give a basis for further scenario work

  14. Alligator Rivers Analogue project. Application of scenario development method in evaluation of the Koongarra Analogue. Final Report - Volume 16

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skagius, K [Kemakta Consultants co., Stockholm (Sweden); Wingefors, S [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1993-12-31

    The study of natural analogues has been established as one of the most important methods for validation of concepts and models applied for the assessment of long-term performance of repositories for nuclear waste. The objectives of such studies range from detailed investigations of processes and features on a small scale to attempts of explaining the evolution of whole sites. For studies of specific processes it may well be as important to consider the larger scale settings as boundary conditions. This appreciation of context and an integrated view may be as important for evaluation of most natural analogues as for performance assessments. This is more evident the more the evaluation depends on a knowledge about the evolution of the natural analogue. The attempted formulation of scenarios of the Koongarra Analogue has been based on the external conditions and external features. A rapid weathering of the host rock, i.e. the chlorite schist, is assumed to have started around the onset of the Pleistocene Ice Age (ca 1.6 Ma BP). The eventual oxidation and mobilization of the uranium ore could then have occurred under unsaturated or saturated conditions. This leads to the following major scenarios: (1) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions, with a periodical evolution of the dispersion fan in conjunction with alternating dry (glacial) and wet (interglacial) periods during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (2) Uranyl Phosphates formed under unsaturated conditions as a single event, taking place either early or late during the Pleistocene Ice Age; (3)Uranyl Phosphates formed under saturated conditions, in conjunction with periods of higher and lower flow due to the climatic cycling. Although the original objectives may not have been fully achieved, this work is believed to contribute to a better understanding of the Koongarra Analogue as well as to give a basis for further scenario work

  15. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  16. Importance of Intelligence for Strategic Scenario Building: The Information Section Role in Research and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minamizaki, Noriko

    2017-01-01

    Product development of Japanese companies has changed greatly from the post-war revival period, when it was promoted mainly to provide low-cost, high-quality products. In recent years, it has become necessary to develop products and services that correspond to social issues. Research and development has shifted from a technological basis to a…

  17. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  18. Start-up scenario of compact tori based on REB-injection developed in SPAC-group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ikuta, K.

    1981-01-01

    Quasi-static start-up of compact tori without toroidal field coil is reviewed thoroughly in a proposal of the S-1 spheromak. During the formation phase we should note that the rapid heat loss from the plasma will give a bad effect for the generation of the confinement configuration. In the case of fast start-up of the configuration plasma can safely pass over the dangerous state of the instability toward the desirable stable state with a bonus of producing hot plasma. By this reason it is intended to discuss a fast start-up scenario of the compact tori based on REB injection developed in SPAC group

  19. Maximum forseeable accident analysis made by a sodium leak on the BN-800 primary circuit and the more constraining accident development scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanenko, V.N.; Zybin, V.A.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper the different ways of development for the BN-800 maximum credible accident in case of loss and fire of primary sodium are examined. The more constraining scenario is presented. During the scenario analysis the accidental release of radioactive materials in the environment has been studied. These releases are below the authorized values [fr

  20. A comparative study on the clinical decision-making processes of nurse practitioners vs. medical doctors using scenarios in a secondary care environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Stephen; Moorley, Calvin; Barratt, Julian

    2017-05-01

    To investigate the decision-making skills of secondary care nurse practitioners compared with those of medical doctors. A literature review was conducted, searching for articles published from 1990 - 2012. The review found that nurse practitioners are key to the modernization of the National Health Service. Studies have shown that compared with doctors, nurse practitioners can be efficient and cost-effective in consultations. Qualitative research design. The information processing theory and think aloud approach were used to understand the cognitive processes of 10 participants (5 doctors and 5 nurse practitioners). One nurse practitioner was paired with one doctor from the same speciality and they were compared using a structured scenario-based interview. To ensure that all critical and relevant cues were covered by the individual participating in the scenario, a reference model was used to measure the degree of successful diagnosis, management and treatment. This study was conducted from May 2012 - January 2013. The data were processed for 5 months, from July to November 2012. The two groups of practitioners differed in the number of cue acquisitions obtained in the scenarios. In our study, nurse practitioners took 3 minutes longer to complete the scenarios. This study suggests that nurse practitioner consultations are comparable to those of medical doctors in a secondary care environment in terms of correct diagnoses and therapeutic treatments. The information processing theory highlighted that both groups of professionals had similar models for decision-making processes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Developing Optimal Procedure of Emergency Outside Cooling Water Injection for APR1400 Extended SBO Scenario Using MARS Code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Jong Rok; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In this study, we examined optimum operator actions to mitigate extended SBO using MARS code. Particularly, this paper focuses on analyzing outside core cooling water injection scenario, and aimed to develop optimal extended SBO procedure. Supplying outside emergency cooling water is the key feature of flexible strategy in extended SBO situation. An optimum strategy to maintain core cooling is developed for typical extended SBO. MARS APR1400 best estimate model was used to find optimal procedure. Also RCP seal leakage effect was considered importantly. Recent Fukushima accident shows the importance of mitigation capability against extended SBO scenarios. In Korea, all nuclear power plants incorporated various measures against Fukushima-like events. For APR1400 NPP, outside connectors are installed to inject cooling water using fire trucks or portable pumps. Using these connectors, outside cooling water can be provided to reactor, steam generators (SG), containment spray system, and spent fuel pool. In U. S., similar approach is chosen to provide a diverse and flexible means to prevent fuel damage (core and SFP) in external event conditions resulting in extended loss of AC power and loss of ultimate heat sink. Hence, hardware necessary to cope with extended SBO is already available for APR1400. However, considering the complex and stressful condition encountered by operators during extended SBO, it is important to develop guidelines/procedures to best cope with the event.

  2. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  3. The Development of Analogical Reasoning Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sternberg, Robert J.; Rifkin, Bathsheva

    1979-01-01

    Two experiments were conducted to test the generalizability to children of a theory of analogical reasoning processes, originally proposed for adults, and to examine the development of analogical reasoning processes in terms of five proposed sources of cognitive development. (MP)

  4. Networks for Life; scenario development of an ecological network in Cheshire County

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooij, van S.A.M.; Steingröver, E.G.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2003-01-01

    In this report, a vision for ecological networks in Cheshire County is developed and presented. This vision is developed in close interaction with the County Council. The vision contains a proposal for sound ecological networks of meres and mosses, heathland, rivers, woodland and grassland. A

  5. Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

    2013-04-01

    In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

  6. Methodology and emission scenarios employed in the development of the National Energy Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, R.E.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes the steps taken to model the National Energy Strategy (NES). It provides an overview of the NES process including the models used for the project. The National Energy Strategy Environmental Analysis Model (NESEAM), which was used in analyzing environmental impacts, is discussed. The structure of NESEAM, as well as results and analyses are presented

  7. Instrumental development and data processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franzen, J.

    1978-01-01

    A review of recent developments in mass spectrometry instrumentation is presented under the following headings: introduction (scope of mass spectrometry compared with neighbouring fields); ion sources and ionization techniques; spectrometers (instrumental developments); measuring procedures; coupling techniques; data systems; conclusions (that mass spectrometry should have a broader basis and that there would be mutual profit from a better penetration of mass spectrometry into fields of routine application). (U.K.)

  8. A comparison of three development scenarios for a deepwater field in offshore Brazil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whitworth, J. Lynne; Murray, John J. [Technip Offshore Inc., Houston, TX (United States); Villela, Marcos [Brasflex Tubos Flexiveis Ltda., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Coopersmith, Ellen; Burkholder, Kent [Decision Frameworks, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

    2004-07-01

    This paper presents a case study of an ultra-deep water (> 2000 m) Brazil prospect to demonstrate that a dry tree development is feasible and can enhance the economic attractiveness of such a development. Similar area developments have typically employed sub sea tiebacks to a FPSO or Semi submersible Floating Production Unit (FPU). In this case study, dry-tree units based on a new floater design, the Extendable Draft Platform (EDP), are compared to wet-tree developments with FPSO and Semi submersible floaters. The objective is to demonstrate that a dry-tree concept is currently feasible and can add value to the development of deep water fields. The three strategies are framed for a value comparison analysis to examine which approach produces the most favorable economic outcome. Execution schedules and production profiles are also developed for each strategy. The strategies are evaluated on the basis of Expected (or risk-weighted) Net Present Value (ENPV) of each approach. The results of the analyses show that the value enhancement is captured predominantly due to the capability of the EDP to support a flexible dry-tree development. (author)

  9. Pultrusion of a vertical axis wind turbine blade part-II: combining the manufacturing process simulation with a subsequent loading scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baran, Ismet; Hattel, Jesper Henri; Tutum, Cem Celal

    2015-01-01

    This paper in particular deals with the integrated modeling of a pultruded NACA0018 blade profile being a part of EU funded DeepWind project. The manufacturing aspects of the pultrusion process are associated with the preliminary subsequent service loading scenario. A 3D thermochemical analysis...

  10. Pultrusion of a vertical axis wind turbine blade part-II: combining the manufacturing process simulation with a subsequent loading scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baran, Ismet; Hattel, Jesper H.; Tutum, Cem C.; Akkerman, Remko

    2015-01-01

    This paper in particular deals with the integrated modeling of a pultruded NACA0018 blade profile being a part of EU funded DeepWind project. The manufacturing aspects of the pultrusion process are associated with the preliminary subsequent service loading scenario. A 3D thermo-chemical analysis of

  11. Population and sustainable development in China: Population and household scenarios for two regions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, L.

    1999-01-01

    China's notoriously bulging population has challenged the government's and the land's ability to provide sufficient food, employment, housing, education, and the like. The Chinese environment and resources have been further fatigued by rapid economic development and modernisation. This precarious

  12. Energy supply scenarios and sustainable development: A total view on economy and ecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voss, A.

    2000-01-01

    'Sustainable development' is the guiding principle of the ecological, economic and development policy debate. Although the guiding principle of 'sustainable development' meets with unanimous approval as a general rule, there is a broad spectrum of views and interpretations of this guiding principle in terms of its normative and theoretical scientific basis as well as with regard to the aims and line of action to be taken. This applies especially to the energy sector. This lecture endeavours to concretise the guiding principle of 'sustainable development' for the energy sector, or to put in more exact terms, for the sector providing energy services. Major options for the supply of energy are classified and evaluated in terms of their importance for the sustainable provision of energy based on the results of a comprehensive review of materials and different types of energy. (orig.) [de

  13. Development of the scenario-based training system to reduce hazards and prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, KwanSeong; Choi, Jong-Won; Moon, JeiKwon; Choi, ByungSeon; Hyun, Dongjun; Lee, Jonghwan; Kim, IkJune; Kim, GeunHo; Kang, ShinYoung

    2015-01-01

    Decommissioning of nuclear facilities has to be accomplished by assuring the safety of workers. Decommissioning workers need familiarization with working environments because working environment is under high radioactivity and work difficulty during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. On-the-job training of decommissioning works could effectively train decommissioning workers but this training approach could consume much costs and poor modifications of scenarios. The efficiency of virtual training system could be much better than that of physical training system. This paper was intended to develop the training system to prevent accidents for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The requirements for the training system were drawn. The data management modules for the training system were designed. The training system of decommissioning workers was developed on the basis of virtual reality which is flexibly modified. The visualization and measurement in the training system were real-time done according as changes of the decommissioning scenario. It can be concluded that this training system enables the subject to improve his familiarization about working environments and to prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. In the end, the safety during decommissioning of nuclear facilities will be guaranteed under the principle of ALARA

  14. Development of the scenario-based training system to reduce hazards and prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, KwanSeong; Choi, Jong-Won; Moon, JeiKwon; Choi, ByungSeon; Hyun, Dongjun; Lee, Jonghwan; Kim, IkJune; Kim, GeunHo; Kang, ShinYoung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Decommissioning of nuclear facilities has to be accomplished by assuring the safety of workers. Decommissioning workers need familiarization with working environments because working environment is under high radioactivity and work difficulty during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. On-the-job training of decommissioning works could effectively train decommissioning workers but this training approach could consume much costs and poor modifications of scenarios. The efficiency of virtual training system could be much better than that of physical training system. This paper was intended to develop the training system to prevent accidents for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The requirements for the training system were drawn. The data management modules for the training system were designed. The training system of decommissioning workers was developed on the basis of virtual reality which is flexibly modified. The visualization and measurement in the training system were real-time done according as changes of the decommissioning scenario. It can be concluded that this training system enables the subject to improve his familiarization about working environments and to prevent accidents during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. In the end, the safety during decommissioning of nuclear facilities will be guaranteed under the principle of ALARA.

  15. Development of fuzzy multi-criteria approach to prioritize locations of treated wastewater use considering climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Eun-Sung; Kim, Yeonjoo

    2014-12-15

    This study proposed a robust prioritization framework to identify the priorities of treated wastewater (TWW) use locations with consideration of various uncertainties inherent in the climate change scenarios and the decision-making process. First, a fuzzy concept was applied because future forecast precipitation and their hydrological impact analysis results displayed significant variances when considering various climate change scenarios and long periods (e.g., 2010-2099). Second, various multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques including weighted sum method (WSM), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and fuzzy TOPSIS were introduced to robust prioritization because different MCDM methods use different decision philosophies. Third, decision making method under complete uncertainty (DMCU) including maximin, maximax, minimax regret, Hurwicz, and equal likelihood were used to find robust final rankings. This framework is then applied to a Korean urban watershed. As a result, different rankings were obviously appeared between fuzzy TOPSIS and non-fuzzy MCDMs (e.g., WSM and TOPSIS) because the inter-annual variability in effectiveness was considered only with fuzzy TOPSIS. Then, robust prioritizations were derived based on 18 rankings from nine decadal periods of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. For more robust rankings, five DMCU approaches using the rankings from fuzzy TOPSIS were derived. This framework combining fuzzy TOPSIS with DMCU approaches can be rendered less controversial among stakeholders under complete uncertainty of changing environments. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A solution to the water resources crisis in wetlands: development of a scenario-based modeling approach with uncertain features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Ying; Huang, Guohe; Sun, Wei

    2013-01-01

    A scenario-based interval two-phase fuzzy programming (SITF) method was developed for water resources planning in a wetland ecosystem. The SITF approach incorporates two-phase fuzzy programming, interval mathematical programming, and scenario analysis within a general framework. It can tackle fuzzy and interval uncertainties in terms of cost coefficients, resources availabilities, water demands, hydrological conditions and other parameters within a multi-source supply and multi-sector consumption context. The SITF method has the advantage in effectively improving the membership degrees of the system objective and all fuzzy constraints, so that both higher satisfactory grade of the objective and more efficient utilization of system resources can be guaranteed. Under the systematic consideration of water demands by the ecosystem, the SITF method was successfully applied to Baiyangdian Lake, which is the largest wetland in North China. Multi-source supplies (including the inter-basin water sources of Yuecheng Reservoir and Yellow River), and multiple water users (including agricultural, industrial and domestic sectors) were taken into account. The results indicated that, the SITF approach would generate useful solutions to identify long-term water allocation and transfer schemes under multiple economic, environmental, ecological, and system-security targets. It can address a comparative analysis for the system satisfactory degrees of decisions under various policy scenarios. Moreover, it is of significance to quantify the relationship between hydrological change and human activities, such that a scheme on ecologically sustainable water supply to Baiyangdian Lake can be achieved. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Development of Integrated Real-Time Control of Internal Transport Barriers in Advanced Operation Scenarios on JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreau, D.; Crisanti, F.; Laborde, L.

    2005-01-01

    An important experimental programme is in progress on JET to investigate plasma control schemes which, with a limited number of actuators, could eventually enable ITER to sustain steady state burning plasmas in an 'advanced tokamak' operation scenario. A multi-variable model-based technique was recently developed for the simultaneous control of several plasma parameter profiles in discharges with internal transport barriers (ITB), using lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) together with neutral beam injection (NBI) and ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH). The proposed distributed-parameter control scheme relies on the experimental identification of an integral linear response model operator and retains the intrinsic couplings between the plasma parameter profiles. A first set of experiments was performed to control the current density profile in the low-density/low-power LH-driven phase of the JET advanced scenarios, using only one actuator (LHCD) and a simplified (lumped-parameter) version of the control scheme. Several requested steady state magnetic equilibria were thus obtained and sustained for about 7s, up to full relaxation of the ohmic current throughout the plasma. A second set of experiments was dedicated to the control of the q-profile with 3 actuators (LHCD, NBI and ICRH) during the intense heating phase of advanced scenarios. The safety factor profile was also shown to approach a requested profile within about 5s. The achieved plasma equilibrium was close to steady state. Finally, during the recent high power experimental campaign, experiments have been conducted in a 3T/1.7MA plasma, achieving the simultaneous control of the current density and electron temperature profiles in ITB plasmas. Here, the distributed-parameter version of the algorithm was used for the first time, again with 3 actuators. Real-time control was applied during 7s, and allowed to reach successfully different target q-profiles (monotonic and reversed-shear ones) and different ITB

  18. Development of integrated real-time control of internal transport barriers in advanced operation scenarios on Jet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreau, D.; Laborde, L.; Litaudon, X.; Mazon, D.; Zabeo, L.; Joffrin, E.; Lennholm, M. [Association Euratom-CEA, Centre d' Etudes de Cadarache, 13 - Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France). Dept. de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee; Moreau, D. [EFDA-JET CSU, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, OX (United Kingdom); Crisanti, F.; Pericoli-Ridolfini, V.; Riva, M.; Tuccillo, A. [Euratom-ENEA Association, C.R. Frascati (Italy); Murari, A. [Euratom-ENEA Association, Consorzio RFX, Padova (Italy); Tala, T. [Euratom-TEKES Association, VTT Processes (Finland); Albanese, R.; Ariola, M.; Tommasi, G. de; Pironti, A. [Euratom-ENEA Association, CREATE, Napoli (Italy); Felton, R.; Zastrow, K.D. [Euratom-UKAEA Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon(United Kingdom); Baar, M. de; Vries, P. de [Euratom-FOM Association, TEC Cluster, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); La Luna, E. de [Euratom-CIEMAT Association, CIEMAT, Madrid (Spain)

    2004-07-01

    An important experimental programme is in progress on JET to investigate plasma control schemes which, with a limited number of actuators, could eventually enable ITER to sustain steady state burning plasmas in an 'advanced tokamak' operation scenario. A multi-variable model-based technique was recently developed for the simultaneous control of several plasma parameter profiles in discharges with internal transport barriers (ITB), using lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) together with neutral beam injection (NBI) and ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH). The proposed distributed-parameter control scheme relies on the experimental identification of an integral linear response model operator and retains the intrinsic couplings between the plasma parameter profiles. A first set of experiments was performed to control the current density profile in the low-density/low-power LH-driven phase of the JET advanced scenarios, using only one actuator (LHCD) and a simplified (lumped-parameter) version of the control scheme. Several requested steady state magnetic equilibria were thus obtained and sustained for about 7 s, up to full relaxation of the ohmic current throughout the plasma. A second set of experiments was dedicated to the control of the q-profile with 3 actuators (LHCD, NBI and ICRH) during the intense heating phase of advanced scenarios. The safety factor profile was also shown to approach a requested profile within about 5 s. The achieved plasma equilibrium was close to steady state. Finally, during the recent high power experimental campaign, experiments have been conducted in a 3 T / 1.7 MA plasma, achieving the simultaneous control of the current density and electron temperature profiles in ITB plasmas. Here, the distributed-parameter version of the algorithm was used for the first time, again with 3 actuators. Real-time control was applied during 7 s, and allowed to reach successfully different target q-profiles (monotonic and reversed-shear ones

  19. Development of integrated real-time control of internal transport barriers in advanced operation scenarios on Jet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreau, D.; Laborde, L.; Litaudon, X.; Mazon, D.; Zabeo, L.; Joffrin, E.; Lennholm, M.; Crisanti, F.; Pericoli-Ridolfini, V.; Riva, M.; Tuccillo, A.; Murari, A.; Tala, T.; Albanese, R.; Ariola, M.; Tommasi, G. de; Pironti, A.; Felton, R.; Zastrow, K.D.; Baar, M. de; Vries, P. de; La Luna, E. de

    2004-01-01

    An important experimental programme is in progress on JET to investigate plasma control schemes which, with a limited number of actuators, could eventually enable ITER to sustain steady state burning plasmas in an 'advanced tokamak' operation scenario. A multi-variable model-based technique was recently developed for the simultaneous control of several plasma parameter profiles in discharges with internal transport barriers (ITB), using lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) together with neutral beam injection (NBI) and ion cyclotron resonance heating (ICRH). The proposed distributed-parameter control scheme relies on the experimental identification of an integral linear response model operator and retains the intrinsic couplings between the plasma parameter profiles. A first set of experiments was performed to control the current density profile in the low-density/low-power LH-driven phase of the JET advanced scenarios, using only one actuator (LHCD) and a simplified (lumped-parameter) version of the control scheme. Several requested steady state magnetic equilibria were thus obtained and sustained for about 7 s, up to full relaxation of the ohmic current throughout the plasma. A second set of experiments was dedicated to the control of the q-profile with 3 actuators (LHCD, NBI and ICRH) during the intense heating phase of advanced scenarios. The safety factor profile was also shown to approach a requested profile within about 5 s. The achieved plasma equilibrium was close to steady state. Finally, during the recent high power experimental campaign, experiments have been conducted in a 3 T / 1.7 MA plasma, achieving the simultaneous control of the current density and electron temperature profiles in ITB plasmas. Here, the distributed-parameter version of the algorithm was used for the first time, again with 3 actuators. Real-time control was applied during 7 s, and allowed to reach successfully different target q-profiles (monotonic and reversed-shear ones) and

  20. Development and validation of health related quality of life questionnaire (Indian scenario) in diabetic foot ulcer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kateel, Ramya; Augustine, Alfred J; Ullal, Sheetal; Prabhu, Shivananda; Bhat, Rahul; Adhikari, Prabha

    2017-12-01

    To develop and validate Health Related Quality of Life Questionnaire in Diabetic Foot Ulcer Patients (HRQLQDFU) for Indian scenario. This study was conducted in two phases. First phase was Development of HRQLQDFU which included literature search and expert interview. Second phase was validation of HRQLQDFL which included face validation, content validation and construct validation. Face validation was done by ten diabetic foot ulcer patients, ten practicing nurses and ten care givers. They were asked to read and respond to questionnaire and report any difficulty in understanding the questions. Further they were asked to add any item to the questionnaire which according to them has a significant effect on quality of life. Content validation was done by six subject experts who judged the content relevance of questionnaire with score ranging from zero to four; zero being least relevant and four being most relevant. Content validity index was calculated for each question. Questions having content validity index≥0.8 were selected for the study. Reliability was tested by calculating Cronbach's alpha. In the development phase a questionnaire containing 37 questions with six domains was developed. None of patient had difficulty in understanding questions. After content validation a new questionnaire containing 20 questions was developed. Cronbach's alpha was 0.86 which shows good reliability. The new health related quality of life questionnaire on diabetic foot ulcer patients for an Indian scenario is validated and can be a reliably measure for quality of life in diabetic foot ulcer patients. Copyright © 2017 Diabetes India. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Development and production of radiation shielding window (RSW) glass: Indian scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phani, K.K.

    2006-01-01

    Nuclear energy/power and its peaceful applications play an ever increasing role in India. Irradiated nuclear fuels, irradiated structural materials from reactors, nuclear wastes and radio-isotopes emit high energy gamma radiations which are extremely health hazardous. These materials are handled remotely by manipulators inside the hot cells, which are constructed by shielding materials such as lead and concrete walls. The direct visual control of processes in the hot cells during operation demands the windows in the radiation shielding walls. These windows must provide the clear viewing but yet ensure the good protection to the working personnel from the high energy radiation

  2. Education for Sustainable Development in South Africa: A Model Case Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teise, K.; le Roux, A.

    2016-01-01

    Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) is an educational approach that, by being a catalyst of social change, promotes sustainability. Although South African education policy and practice appear to be oriented towards ESD, the concept is contested, and ragged with ambiguity and vagueness. Because the transformation of South African education…

  3. Civil war, climate change, and development: a scenario study for Sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Devitt, C.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war

  4. THE WORLD AGRIBUSINESS DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS AT THE CONTRACTING SYSTEM: THEORY AND PRACTICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Safarbi Mukhamedovich Pshikhachev

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of research could be methods of direct and indirect development in the Agri-Industrial Complex with factor of uncertainty. Most of main aim that is regulated to all Governments is the optimization of production volume. All nationals would like to develop the expansion of complex agrarian policy through international trade. Russia is a fifth world importer of agricultural products after Europe Union, China, the USA and Japan with total import should be going 40,4 bln. dollars. The main aims such policy will have to be the income stabilization for farmers and real growth of economy and good pricing for all counteragents of the market. The state agrarian policy is based on the internal and external standards including international. Domestic standards could be economic including a quality of physical and human capitals, role of state in the technology development and international exchange reserve, tax resource and social and politics. Specially for Russia is more actually it’s being research of the US Extension development, investing and hector payments realizing which are indirect methods in the agriculture. They are so many. These mechanisms are modern state policy in the Agro-Food system and that is the guaranty of Food Safety.

  5. Consequences of a double-ended severance of a steam generator tube and accidental development scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smirnov, M.V.; Titov, V.F.; Poplavskii, V.M.; Baklushin, R.P.

    1988-01-01

    The results of theoretical analysis for accidental sequences in a modular steam generator are presented. The most probable water leak development in sodium in case of steam generator emergency stop faults is examined. In all schemes the reactor safety is preserved [fr

  6. Development scenarios for the national coordination exercise and long-term management after a nuclear emergency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero Prieto, M.; Gallego Diez, E.

    2013-01-01

    Developing a strategy to deal with an emergency situation from the response phase to the recovery can facilitate decision-making organizations to ensure optimum protection of health, the environment and society. It is strengthening the preparedness and response capacity to achieve a high degree of participation of the agents involved. (Author)

  7. Extending the agile development process to develop acceptably secure software

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ben Othmane, L.; Angin, P.; Weffers, H.T.G.; Bhargava, B.

    2013-01-01

    The agile software development approach makes developing secure software challenging. Existing approaches for extending the agile development process, which enables incremental and iterative software development, fall short of providing a method for efficiently ensuring the security of the software

  8. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  9. Erosion scenarios for Wellenberg

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemenz, W.

    1993-09-01

    The proposed Wellenberg site for a radioactive waste repository is located between Altzellen in the Engelberger valley and the Oberrickenbach valley, in a thick Valanginian marl series. The marl is generally overlaid with unconsolidated rocks but reaches to the surface in some places. In contrast to the situation in the Oberbauenstock region this marl complex is not protected by an overlying erosion resistant series and exhibits a marked relief. The question therefore arises with respect to the Wellenberg site, to what extent will the marl (i.e. the repository host rock formation) be removed by erosion processes during the 100,000 years interval under consideration and what overburden will remain at the end of this period. This report presents the results of an investigation of the longterm behaviour of the proposed site in respect of those processes of erosion and deposition which can lead to changes in the terrain surface and its location relative to the repository. A wide range of possible scenarios encompassing different developments of climatic conditions during the 100,000 year period of interest, was investigated. In addition to the continuation of the present climate and the occurrence of a new ice age on the scale of the Wuerm glaciation the consequences of altered climatic conditions on erosion removal of the repository overburden were considered. Within the 100,000 year period of interest none of the scenarios considered leads to the exposure of the repository. (author) figs., tabs, refs

  10. A peek into the drug development scenario of endometriosis - A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goenka, Luxitaa; George, Melvin; Sen, Maitrayee

    2017-06-01

    Endometriosis is a gynaecological disease that is characterised by the presence of endometrium like tissue-epithelium and stroma that develops outside the uterine cavity, which is responsible for pelvic pain and infertility. Even though several medical therapies exist for the treatment of endometriosis, each of the drug class has its own limitations such as cost of treatment, side-effects and its short-term effect on the symptoms of endometriosis. In this review, we have attempted to summarize the current status and challenges of drug development for endometriosis. A systematic review was done and all the RCTs were selected from the identified hits. We included studies that explored the usage of therapeutic drugs on endometriosis patients from inception till November 2016. The search term used was 'Endometriosis' using PubMed and Clinicaltrials.gov. For the final analysis, 60 articles were analyzed and we identified the newly emerging drug therapies for endometriosis treatment and have briefed their current status and challenges in drug development for endometriosis. The quality of the selected studies was assessed based on the degree of bias. The current classes of drugs that have shown promising therapeutic results include Gonadotropin- releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonists, aromatase inhibitors (AI), and selective progesterone and estrogen receptor modulators, dopamine receptor-2-agonists and statins. The drugs that failed midway during development include tanezumab, rosiglitazone, infliximab, pentoxifylline, telapristone acetate, asoprisnil and raloxifene. From the literature review, it appears that the most promising molecules for the treatment of endometriosis in the near future include elagolix, mifepristone, TAK-385, KLH-2109 and ASP1707 and cabergoline. It remains to be seen if these molecules would succeed large phase 3 clinical trials and overcome the regulatory hurdles to become an essential tool in the gynaecologist's armamentarium against endometriosis

  11. Development of functionally-oriented technological processes of electroerosive processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syanov, S. Yu

    2018-03-01

    The stages of the development of functionally oriented technological processes of electroerosive processing from the separation of the surfaces of parts and their service functions to the determination of the parameters of the process of electric erosion, which will provide not only the quality parameters of the surface layer, but also the required operational properties, are described.

  12. GRTgaz 10-year system development plan - Indicative scenario for the period 2006 - 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    GRTgaz is a European leader in natural gas transmission, a world expert in gas transmission networks and systems, and an operator firmly committed to the energy transition. It owns and operates the gas transmission network throughout most of France and it manages the transmission network in Germany, thereby helping to ensure correct operation of the French and European gas market. It contributes to the energy security of regional supply systems and performs a public service mission to ensure the continuity of consumer supply. In accordance with the French Energy Code, GRTgaz publishes a 10-year development plan for its gas distribution network in France every year. This document is produced in line with European and French energy policies. It identifies the transport infrastructure that will need to be built over the next three years, and presents the main infrastructure that is likely to be developed within the next ten years. It incorporates the supply security obligations that TSOs are required to fulfil. It takes account of interested parties' needs and projects at the national, supranational and European levels. It is based on existing gas supply and demand and reasonable medium-term development forecasts for gas infrastructure, consumption and international trade

  13. Changing scenario for promotion and development of Ayurveda--way forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Pulok K; Nema, Neelesh K; Venkatesh, P; Debnath, Pratip K

    2012-09-28

    Ayurveda, derives from the Sanskrit words Ayus (life) and Veda (knowledge) is the most ancient system of traditional medicine of the world. It has been practiced in Indian peninsula since 5000 BC to offer natural ways to treat diseases and to promote healthcare. We reviewed the literature on the history, principles and current status of Ayurveda. The data have been presented systematically including the initiatives from Government of India. Several aspects of administrative management, education, teaching and related aspects for promotion and development of Ayurveda and other Indian systems of traditional medicine have been discussed. This paper reviews on different aspects of development of Ayurveda. Presently, there are 2420 hospitals with about 42271 beds, 15017 dispensaries, 429246 registered practitioners, more than 320 educational institutions, 7699 drug-manufacturing units to promote Ayurveda into the health care delivery system in the country. Ayurvedic Pharmacopoeia of India is the official document for single Ayurvedic drugs (540 monographs) and different formulations (152 monographs). Several aspects in this regard for development of Ayurveda have been discussed. Considering the widespread use and popularity of Ayurveda worldwide, administrative management and infrastructure facilities, indigenous practices and standards for quality control and it's evaluation have been highlighted. In India, all such efforts for integration of Ayurveda provide potential role in the health care benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Managing urban water supplies in developing countries Climate change and water scarcity scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vairavamoorthy, Kala; Gorantiwar, Sunil D.; Pathirana, Assela

    Urban areas of developing countries are facing increasing water scarcity and it is possible that this problem may be further aggravated due to rapid changes in the hydro-environment at different scales, like those of climate and land-cover. Due to water scarcity and limitations to the development of new water resources, it is prudent to shift from the traditional 'supply based management' to a 'demand management' paradigm. Demand management focuses on measures that make better and more efficient use of limited supplies, often at a level significantly below standard service levels. This paper particularly focuses on the intermittent water supplies in the cities of developing countries. Intermittent water supplies need to be adopted due to water scarcity and if not planned properly, results in inequities in water deliveries to consumers and poor levels of service. It is therefore important to recognise these realities when designing and operating such networks. The standard tools available for design of water supply systems often assume a continuous, unlimited supply and the supplied water amount is limited only be the demand, making them unsuitable for designing intermittent supplies that are governed by severely limited water availability. This paper presents details of new guidelines developed for the design and control of intermittent water distribution systems in developing countries. These include a modified network analysis simulation coupled with an optimal design tool. The guidelines are driven by a modified set of design objectives to be met at least cost. These objectives are equity in supply and people driven levels of service (PDLS) expressed in terms of four design parameters namely, duration of the supply; timings of the supply; pressure at the outlet (or flow-rate at outlet); and others such as the type of connection required and the locations of connections (in particular for standpipes). All the four parameters are calculated using methods and

  15. High-Throughput Process Development for Biopharmaceuticals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Abhinav A; Rameez, Shahid; Wolfe, Leslie S; Oien, Nathan

    2017-11-14

    The ability to conduct multiple experiments in parallel significantly reduces the time that it takes to develop a manufacturing process for a biopharmaceutical. This is particularly significant before clinical entry, because process development and manufacturing are on the "critical path" for a drug candidate to enter clinical development. High-throughput process development (HTPD) methodologies can be similarly impactful during late-stage development, both for developing the final commercial process as well as for process characterization and scale-down validation activities that form a key component of the licensure filing package. This review examines the current state of the art for HTPD methodologies as they apply to cell culture, downstream purification, and analytical techniques. In addition, we provide a vision of how HTPD activities across all of these spaces can integrate to create a rapid process development engine that can accelerate biopharmaceutical drug development. Graphical Abstract.

  16. Evaluation of nuclear power development scenarios in romania envisaging the long-term national energy sustainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, C.; Apostol, M.; Visan, I.; Prodea, I.

    2015-01-01

    The paper summarizes the results of RATEN ICN Pitesti experts' activities in the IAEA's Collaborative Project INPRO-SYNERGIES. Romanian study proposes to evaluate and analyze development of the nuclear capacity and increasing of its share in national energy sector, envisaging the long term national and regional energy sustainability by keeping options open for the future while bringing solutions to short/medium-term challenges. The study focused on the modelling of national NES (Nuclear Energy System) development on short and medium-term (time horizon 2050), considering the existing NFC (Nuclear Fuel Cycle) infrastructure and legislation, provisions of strategic documents in force and including also the possibility of regional collaboration regarding U/fresh fuel supply and SF (Spent Fuel) storage, as services provided at international market prices. The energy system modelling was realized by using the IAEA's MESSAGE program. The study results offer a clear image and also the possible answer to several key questions regarding: potential of nuclear energy to participate with an important share in national energy mix, in conditions of cost competitiveness, safety and security of supply; impact on national energy mix portfolio of capacities and electricity production; impact on Uranium domestic resources; economic projection/investments needed for new nuclear capacities addition; fresh fuel requirements for nuclear capacities; SF annually discharged and transferred to interim wet storage for cooling; SF volume in interim dry storage, etc. (authors)

  17. Rural and urban energy scenario of the developing countries and related health assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vohra, K.G.

    1982-01-01

    The pattern of energy use in India is considered in order to assess the impact on health of rural and urban energy sources in the developing countries. The health impact of the 'non-commercial' sources of energy used in India is discussed, with particular reference to the use of firewood and farm wastes for domestic cooking. The commercial energy sources considered include coal, oil and electricity. The generation of electricity from coal, hydro sources and nuclear fuels is discussed with regard to their health impact. The production and use of biogas instead of dried animal dung for domestic cooking in the rural areas of India is proposed in order to reduce the health detriment. On the basis of the past trend in the use of commercial and non-commercial energy in India, projections are made for the future, taking into consideration health detriment and evironmental damage associated with different sources. Finally, bases for changing the energy-use pattern in the developing countries are discussed, with particular emphasis on renewable sources and nuclear energy. (author)

  18. A Reactor Development Scenario for the FUZE Shear-flow Stabilized Z-pinch

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, H. S.; Higginson, D. P.; Schmidt, A.; Tummel, K. K.; Shumlak, U.; Nelson, B. A.; Claveau, E. L.; Golingo, R. P.; Weber, T. R.

    2016-10-01

    We present a conceptual design, scaling calculations, and a development path for a pulsed fusion reactor based on the shear-flow-stabilized Z-pinch device. Experiments performed on the ZaP device have demonstrated stable operation for 40 us at 150 kA total discharge current (with 100 kA in the pinch) for pinches that are 1cm in diameter and 100 cm long. Scaling calculations show that achieving stabilization for a pulse of 100 usec, for discharge current 1.5 MA, in a shortened pinch 50 cm, results in a pinch diameter of 200 um and a reactor plant Q 5 for reasonable assumptions of the various system efficiencies. We propose several key intermediate performance levels in order to justify further development. These include achieving operation at pinch currents of 300 kA, where Te and Ti are calculated to exceed 1 keV, 700 kA where fusion power exceeds pinch input power, and 1 MA where fusion energy per pulse exceeds input energy per pulse. This work funded by USDOE ARPAe ALPHA Program and performed under the auspices of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-697801.

  19. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  20. [Agrarian movements, development alternatives and food security in Central America: scenarios of transition].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez Rojas, R

    1991-01-01

    This article, based on personal experiences with a network of organizations of small and medium agricultural producers in Central America, aims to present the views of peasant organizations concerning agrarian problems in the region. The 3 major sections of work define the place of peasant agriculture in the traditional agrarian structure and the new problems resulting from the structural adjustment programs of the 1980s; separately describe the new peasant movements emerging in Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, identifying common themes an efforts at international collaboration; and explore the positions of the peasant organizations on the optimal strategies for agricultural development and agrarian change. Agriculture remains the backbone of the Central American economies. But because the economic model in the region is 1 of accumulation characterized by dependency, concentration of capital, and social marginalization, the agrarian structure is at the basis of social tensions. Efforts to develop peasant agriculture and to give small producers access to marketing and credit services have been weak and sporadic. The new peasant movements are less inclined than those of the past to employ tactics of confrontation in their efforts to secure access to land and better working conditions. The new movement is the expression of small market producers sometimes grouped into associations who are oriented to production of basic foodstuffs for the internal market. A new concern with adaptation and negotiation is evident. The new organizations have in common a belief in their ability to propose new solutions to regional problems. Their views are founded on a positive assessment of the ability of peasant agriculture to produce food and add dynamism to the regional economy after barriers to credit, technological progress, and modernization in general are removed. Signs of increased cooperation are evident between peasant organizations and other groups

  1. Integrated transportation scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    Regional land usetransportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. : metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues : to track the development and expansion of regional sc...

  2. Fournier′s gangrene developing secondary to infected hydrocele: A unique clinical scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umran Sarwar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We report the first case of Fournier′s gangrene (FG developing secondary to an infected hydrocele worldwide. We present a case report with a brief overview of the literature relating to FG and its aetiology, diagnosis and management. A 70 year-old male was referred by his General Practitioner with a 2 week history of worsening symptoms of scrotal discomfort and swelling. Following clinical examination, an initial diagnosis of an infected right-sided hydrocele was made and treatment, consisting of antibiotics, was initiated. Despite showing good clinical improvement, several days later, necrotic areas were observed over the right hemiscrotum with spreading cellulitis. A diagnosis of FG was made. The patient was started on triple-therapy antibiotics and taken to the operating room for urgent surgical debridement. Necrotic skin and subcutaneous tissue extending over the perineum and lower anterior abdomen was debrided down to healthy tissue. A further debridement took place 2 days later. The patient continued to improve and was eventually discharged under the care of Plastic Surgeons for reconstruction of the soft tissue defect. FG is a type of necrotising fasciitis predominantly affecting the male perineal, perianal, genital and anterior abdominal wall regions. It has a significant mortality rate, and the key to survival is early detection and treatment consisting of antibiotics and surgical debridement of the affected area. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reported case of FG developing secondary to an existing hydrocele without any prior urological intervention. The case highlights the important clinical diagnostic and therapeutic interventions required to prevent complications associated with this, potentially fatal, condition.

  3. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  4. Development of novel microencapsulation processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Weisi

    of polymer solution suspended in water or from a spray. Hollow PS particles were obtained by swelling PS latex with solvent, freezing in liquid nitrogen, and drying in vacuum. It is shown that the particle morphology is due to phase separation in the polymer emulsion droplets upon freezing in liquid nitrogen, and that morphological changes are driven largely by lowering interfacial free energy. The dried hollow particles were resuspended in a dispersing media and exposed to a plasticizer, which imparts mobility to polymer chains, to close the surface opening and form microcapsules surrounding an aqueous core. The interfacial free energy difference between the hydrophobic inside and hydrophilic outside surfaces is the major driving force for closing the hole on the surface. A controlled release biodegradable vehicle for drug was made by encapsulating procaine hydrochloride, a water-soluble drug, into the core of poly(DL-lactide) (PLA) microcapsules, which were made by the freeze-drying and subsequent closing process. The encapsulation efficiency is affected by the hollow particle morphology, amount of closing agent, exposure time, surfactant, and method of dispersing the hollow particles in water. Controlled release of procaine hydrochloride from the microcapsules into phosphate buffer was observed. The use of benign solvents dimethyl carbonate in spray/freeze-drying and CO2 for closing would eliminate concerns of residual harmful solvent in the product. The ease of separation of CO2 from the drug solution may also enable recycling of the drug solution to increase the overall encapsulation efficiency using these novel hollow particles.

  5. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K. [ed.

    1993-12-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

  6. A Reactor Development Scenario for the FuZE Sheared-Flow Stabilized Z-pinch

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Harry S.; Higginson, D. P.; Schmidt, A.; Tummel, K. K.; Shumlak, U.; Nelson, B. A.; Claveau, E. L.; Forbes, E. G.; Golingo, R. P.; Stepanov, A. D.; Weber, T. R.; Zhang, Y.

    2017-10-01

    We present a conceptual design, scaling calculations, and development path for a pulsed fusion reactor based on a flow-stabilized Z-pinch. Experiments performed on the ZaP and ZaP-HD devices have largely demonstrated the basic physics of sheared-flow stabilization at pinch currents up to 100 kA. Initial experiments on the FuZE device, a high-power upgrade of ZaP, have achieved 20 usec of stability at pinch current 100-200 kA and pinch diameter few mm for a pinch length of 50 cm. Scaling calculations based on a quasi-steady-state power balance show that extending stable duration to 100 usec at a pinch current of 1.5 MA and pinch length of 50 cm, results in a reactor plant Q 5. Future performance milestones are proposed for pinch currents of: 300 kA, where Te and Ti are calculated to exceed 1-2 keV; 700 kA, where DT fusion power would be expected to exceed pinch input power; and 1 MA, where fusion energy per pulse exceeds input energy per pulse. This work funded by USDOE ARPA-E and performed under the auspices of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-734770.

  7. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  8. Developing engineering processes through integrated modelling of product and process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jeppe Bjerrum; Hvam, Lars

    2012-01-01

    This article aims at developing an operational tool for integrated modelling of product assortments and engineering processes in companies making customer specific products. Integrating a product model in the design of engineering processes will provide a deeper understanding of the engineering...... activities as well as insight into how product features affect the engineering processes. The article suggests possible ways of integrating models of products with models of engineering processes. The models have been tested and further developed in an action research study carried out in collaboration...... with a major international engineering company....

  9. A methodology for development of biocatalytic processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lima Ramos, Joana

    are available. The first case study presents a rational approach for defining a development strategy for multi-enzymatic processes. The proposed methodology requires a profound and structured knowledge of the multi-enzyme systems, integrating chemistry, biological and process engineering. In order to suggest......). These process metrics can often be attained by improvements in the reaction chemistry, the biocatalyst, and/or by process engineering, which often requires a complex process development strategy. Interestingly this complexity, which arises from the need for integration of biological and process technologies...... and their relationship with the overall process is not clear.The work described in this thesis presents a methodological approach for early stage development of biocatalytic processes, understanding and dealing with the reaction, biocatalyst and process constraints. When applied, this methodology has a decisive role...

  10. An Integrated Modelling System to Predict Hydrological Processes under Climate and Land-Use/Cover Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes an integrated modeling system consisting of the physically-based MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, a cellular automata model, and general circulation models (GCMs scenarios to investigate the independent and combined effects of future climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC changes on the hydrology of a river system. The integrated modelling system is applied to the Elbow River watershed in southern Alberta, Canada in conjunction with extreme GCM scenarios and two LULC change scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s. Results reveal that LULC change substantially modifies the river flow regime in the east sub-catchment, where rapid urbanization is occurring. It is also shown that the change in LULC causes an increase in peak flows in both the 2020s and 2050s. The impacts of climate and LULC change on streamflow are positively correlated in winter and spring, which intensifies their influence and leads to a significant rise in streamflow, and, subsequently, increases the vulnerability of the watershed to spring floods. This study highlights the importance of using an integrated modeling approach to investigate both the independent and combined impacts of climate and LULC changes on the future of hydrology to improve our understanding of how watersheds will respond to climate and LULC changes.

  11. Radioactive Dry Process Material Treatment Technology Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, J. J.; Hung, I. H.; Kim, K. K. (and others)

    2007-06-15

    The project 'Radioactive Dry Process Material Treatment Technology Development' aims to be normal operation for the experiments at DUPIC fuel development facility (DFDF) and safe operation of the facility through the technology developments such as remote operation, maintenance and pair of the facility, treatment of various high level process wastes and trapping of volatile process gases. DUPIC Fuel Development Facility (DFDF) can accommodate highly active nuclear materials, and now it is for fabrication of the oxide fuel by dry process characterizing the proliferation resistance. During the second stage from march 2005 to February 2007, we carried out technology development of the remote maintenance and the DFDF's safe operation, development of treatment technology for process off-gas, and development of treatment technology for PWR cladding hull and the results was described in this report.

  12. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  13. Historical review and insights on the livestock tick-borne disease research of a developing country: The Philippine scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ybañez, Adrian P; Mingala, Claro N; Ybañez, Rochelle Haidee D

    2018-04-01

    Tick-borne diseases (TBDs) remain to be a global animal health threat. Developing countries like the Philippines is not exempt to this. Despite the potential impact TBDs can give to these countries, local government initiatives and researches remain to be limited. In the Philippines, most epidemiological studies were confined only to specific areas, and predominantly in the Northern Area. Due to its unique geography and limited studies, the current nationwide status of most TBDs could not be clearly established. This review mainly covered published studies and presented challenges in the conduct of TBD research in the Philippines, which may be similar to other Southeast Asian or developing countries. To date, reported livestock TBD pathogens in the Philippines include Anaplasma, Babesia, Theileria, and Mycoplasma spp. With the ubiquitous presence of the Rhipicephalus microplus ticks in the country, it is highly probable that other pathogens transmitted by these vectors could be present. Despite studies on different TBDs in the livestock sector, the Philippine government has not yet heightened its efforts to implement tick control measures as part of the routine animal health program for local farmers. Further studies might be needed to determine the nationwide prevalence of TBDs and the presence of other possible tick species and TBD pathogens. The Philippine scenario may present situations that are similar to other developing countries. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  15. Features of the Manufacturing Vision Development Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dukovska-Popovska, Iskra; Riis, Jens Ove; Boer, Harry

    2005-01-01

    of action research. The methodology recommends wide participation of people from different hierarchical and functional positions, who engage in a relatively short, playful and creative process and come up with a vision (concept) for the future manufacturing system in the company. Based on three case studies......This paper discusses the key features of the process of Manufacturing Vision Development, a process that enables companies to develop their future manufacturing concept. The basis for the process is a generic five-phase methodology (Riis and Johansen, 2003) developed as a result of ten years...... of companies going through the initial phases of the methodology, this research identified the key features of the Manufacturing Vision Development process. The paper elaborates the key features by defining them, discussing how and when they can appear, and how they influence the process....

  16. Unified Approach in the DSS Development Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The structure of today's decision support environment become very complex due to new generation of Business Intelligence applications and technologies like Data Warehouse, OLAP (On Line Analytical Processing and Data Mining. In this respect DSS development process are not simple and needs an adequate methodology or framework able to manage different tools and platforms to achieve manager's requirements. The DSS development process must be view like a unified and iterative set of activities and operations. The new techniques based on Unified Process (UP methodology and UML (Unified Modeling Language it seems to be appropriate for DSS development using prototyping and RAD (Rapid Application Development techniques. In this paper we present a conceptual framework for development and integrate Decision Support Systems using Unified Process Methodology and UML.

  17. Developing spatially explicit footprints of plausible land-use scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed, Arizona and Sonora

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Laura M.; Feller, Mark; Villarreal, Miguel L.

    2012-01-01

    The SLEUTH urban growth model is applied to a binational dryland watershed to envision and evaluate plausible future scenarios of land use change into the year 2050. Our objective was to create a suite of geospatial footprints portraying potential land use change that can be used to aid binational decision-makers in assessing the impacts relative to sustainability of natural resources and potential socio-ecological consequences of proposed land-use management. Three alternatives are designed to simulate different conditions: (i) a Current Trends Scenario of unmanaged exponential growth, (ii) a Conservation Scenario with managed growth to protect the environment, and (iii) a Megalopolis Scenario in which growth is accentuated around a defined international trade corridor. The model was calibrated with historical data extracted from a time series of satellite images. Model materials, methodology, and results are presented. Our Current Trends Scenario predicts the footprint of urban growth to approximately triple from 2009 to 2050, which is corroborated by local population estimates. The Conservation Scenario results in protecting 46% more of the Evergreen class (more than 150,000 acres) than the Current Trends Scenario and approximately 95,000 acres of Barren Land, Crops, Deciduous Forest (Mesquite Bosque), Grassland/Herbaceous, Urban/Recreational Grasses, and Wetlands classes combined. The Megalopolis Scenario results also depict the preservation of some of these land-use classes compared to the Current Trends Scenario, most notably in the environmentally important headwaters region. Connectivity and areal extent of land cover types that provide wildlife habitat were preserved under the alternative scenarios when compared to Current Trends.

  18. Development and uptake of scenarios to support water resources planning, development and management: examples from South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Funke, Nicola S

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The international agenda on water resources development reflects societal needs, political agendas, economic realities and the state of resources. The industrial revolution, which started in the 18th century, brought social and economic prosperity...

  19. EUV mask process specifics and development challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesladek, Pavel

    2014-07-01

    EUV lithography is currently the favorite and most promising candidate among the next generation lithography (NGL) technologies. Decade ago the NGL was supposed to be used for 45 nm technology node. Due to introduction of immersion 193nm lithography, double/triple patterning and further techniques, the 193 nm lithography capabilities was greatly improved, so it is expected to be used successfully depending on business decision of the end user down to 10 nm logic. Subsequent technology node will require EUV or DSA alternative technology. Manufacturing and especially process development for EUV technology requires significant number of unique processes, in several cases performed at dedicated tools. Currently several of these tools as e.g. EUV AIMS or actinic reflectometer are not available on site yet. The process development is done using external services /tools with impact on the single unit process development timeline and the uncertainty of the process performance estimation, therefore compromises in process development, caused by assumption about similarities between optical and EUV mask made in experiment planning and omitting of tests are further reasons for challenges to unit process development. Increased defect risk and uncertainty in process qualification are just two examples, which can impact mask quality / process development. The aim of this paper is to identify critical aspects of the EUV mask manufacturing with respect to defects on the mask with focus on mask cleaning and defect repair and discuss the impact of the EUV specific requirements on the experiments needed.

  20. Wind energy scenarios up to 2020. Developments in the Netherlands in the framework of the SDE regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoving, P.

    2009-04-01

    The Dutch government relies heavily on wind energy to reach the renewable energy target. Aim for the onshore installed capacity is 4,000 MW in 2020 and the offshore capacity target is 6,000 MW in 2020. In order to reach these targets, the so-called SDE subsidy mechanism exists. The regulation subsidises the financial gap of wind projects. It is unsure whether this SDE regulation, offers enough support to achieve the above targets. The main research question of this study was formulated as follows: Is it possible for the Dutch government to meet the 2020 targets for wind energy, as a part of the renewable energy targets, with the current SDE regulation or should the regulation be altered to create an improved contribution of wind energy? To answer this question, several sub-questions were formulated concerning cost developments, capacity developments, and possible supporting subsidy strategies and the implementation of other policy measures. The research questions were answered with help of a specific spreadsheet model. Cost and capacity developments are the main elements of the model. Cost developments depend on learning effects, material costs and economic aspects. Long term expectations of these aspects are combined to sketch cost developments. Together with the electricity price (APX day-ahead base load index), the costs determine the financial gap of wind energy, that needs to be subsidised. A distinction is made between different capacity categories: new onshore wind turbines, new offshore wind farms and repowering. Repowering is defined as a combination of renewal projects for older onshore turbines which are renovated or replaced at the end of their economic lifetime. The capacity categories differ on the cost aspect and required subsidy payments, but also the capacity potential that can be achieved. The results show that in the most favourable scenario, the targets can be reached with an annual budget equal to that of the 2008 budget (800 million euro). A

  1. Developing and Testing a High-Fidelity Simulation Scenario for an Uncommon Life-Threatening Disease: Severe Malaria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Kestler

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Severe malaria is prevalent globally, yet it is an uncommon disease posing a challenge to education in nonendemic countries. High-fidelity simulation (sim may be well suited to teaching its management. Objective. To develop and evaluate a teaching tool for severe malaria, using sim. Methods. A severe malaria sim scenario was developed based on 5 learning objectives. Sim sessions, conducted at an academic center, utilized METI ECS mannequin. After sim, participants received standardized debriefing and completed a test assessing learning and a survey assessing views on sim efficacy. Results. 29 participants included 3rd year medical students (65%, 3rd year EM residents (28%, and EM nurses (7%. Participants scored average 85% on questions related to learning objectives. 93% felt that sim was effective or very effective in teaching severe malaria, and 83% rated it most effective. All respondents felt that sim increased their knowledge on malaria. Conclusion. Sim is an effective tool for teaching severe malaria in and may be superior to other modalities.

  2. Long-term scenarios of power reactors and fuel cycle development and the role of reduced moderation water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Osamu; Tatematsu, Kenji; Tanaka, Yoji

    2000-01-01

    Reduced moderation spectrum reactor is one of water cooled type reactors in future, which is based on the advanced technology of conventional nuclear power plants. The reduced moderation water reactor (RMWR) has various advantages, such as effective utilization of uranium resources, high conversion ratio, high burn-up, long-term cycle operation, and multiple recycle of plutonium. The RMWR is expected to be a substitute of fast breeder reactor (FBR) of which the development encounters with some technical and financial difficulties, and discontinues in many countries. The role of the RMWR on long-term scenarios of power reactor and fuel cycle development in Japan is investigated from the point of view of uranium resource needed. The consumption of natural uranium needed up to the year 2200 is calculated on various assumptions for the following three cases: (1) no breeder reactor; plutonium-thermal cycle in conventional light water reactor, (2) introduction of the FBR, and (3) introduction of the RMWR. The amounts of natural uranium consumption depends largely on the conversion ratio and plutonium quantity needed of a reactor type. The RMWR has a possibility as a substitute technology of the FBR with the improvement of conversion ratio and high burn-up. (Suetake, M.)

  3. Long-term scenarios of power reactors and fuel cycle development and the role of reduced moderation water reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sato, Osamu; Tatematsu, Kenji; Tanaka, Yoji [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2000-06-01

    Reduced moderation spectrum reactor is one of water cooled type reactors in future, which is based on the advanced technology of conventional nuclear power plants. The reduced moderation water reactor (RMWR) has various advantages, such as effective utilization of uranium resources, high conversion ratio, high burn-up, long-term cycle operation, and multiple recycle of plutonium. The RMWR is expected to be a substitute of fast breeder reactor (FBR) of which the development encounters with some technical and financial difficulties, and discontinues in many countries. The role of the RMWR on long-term scenarios of power reactor and fuel cycle development in Japan is investigated from the point of view of uranium resource needed. The consumption of natural uranium needed up to the year 2200 is calculated on various assumptions for the following three cases: (1) no breeder reactor; plutonium-thermal cycle in conventional light water reactor, (2) introduction of the FBR, and (3) introduction of the RMWR. The amounts of natural uranium consumption depends largely on the conversion ratio and plutonium quantity needed of a reactor type. The RMWR has a possibility as a substitute technology of the FBR with the improvement of conversion ratio and high burn-up. (Suetake, M.)

  4. Management of Talent Development Process in Sport

    OpenAIRE

    SEVİMLİ, Dilek

    2015-01-01

    In the development of elite athletes, talent identification and education, is a complex and multidimensional process. It is difficult to predict the future performance depending on the increasing amount of technical, tactical, conditioning and psychological needs in a sport. Factors such as children’s developmental stages and levels, gender, athlete development programs, social support, the quality of coaches, access to equipment and facilities can affect talent development process.Phases of ...

  5. Development and Application of an Analyst Process Model for a Search Task Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    Equipment Research was conducted at ATIC located at 2685 Hibiscus Way, Suite 110, Beavercreek, OH 45431. A desktop computer with the GOST...cannot be promised because information bearing on your health may be required to be reported to appropriate medical or command authorities. Your

  6. River Water Pollution Status and Water Policy Scenario in Ethiopia: Raising Awareness for Better Implementation in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awoke, Aymere; Beyene, Abebe; Kloos, Helmut; Goethals, Peter L. M.; Triest, Ludwig

    2016-10-01

    Despite the increasing levels of pollution in many tropical African countries, not much is known about the strength and weaknesses of policy and institutional frameworks to tackle pollution and ecological status of rivers and their impacts on the biota. We investigated the ecological status of four large river basins using physicochemical water quality parameters and bioindicators by collecting samples from forest, agriculture, and urban landscapes of the Nile, Omo-Gibe, Tekeze, and Awash River basins in Ethiopia. We also assessed the water policy scenario to evaluate its appropriateness to prevent and control pollution. To investigate the level of understanding and implementation of regulatory frameworks and policies related to water resources, we reviewed the policy documents and conducted in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Physicochemical and biological data revealed that there is significant water quality deterioration at the impacted sites (agriculture, coffee processing, and urban landscapes) compared to reference sites (forested landscapes) in all four basins. The analysis of legal, policy, and institutional framework showed a lack of cooperation between stakeholders, lack of knowledge of the policy documents, absence of enforcement strategies, unavailability of appropriate working guidelines, and disconnected institutional setup at the grass root level to implement the set strategies as the major problems. In conclusion, river water pollution is a growing challenge and needs urgent action to implement intersectoral collaboration for water resource management that will eventually lead toward integrated watershed management. Revision of policy and increasing the awareness and participation of implementers are vital to improve ecological quality of rivers.

  7. River Water Pollution Status and Water Policy Scenario in Ethiopia: Raising Awareness for Better Implementation in Developing Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awoke, Aymere; Beyene, Abebe; Kloos, Helmut; Goethals, Peter L M; Triest, Ludwig

    2016-10-01

    Despite the increasing levels of pollution in many tropical African countries, not much is known about the strength and weaknesses of policy and institutional frameworks to tackle pollution and ecological status of rivers and their impacts on the biota. We investigated the ecological status of four large river basins using physicochemical water quality parameters and bioindicators by collecting samples from forest, agriculture, and urban landscapes of the Nile, Omo-Gibe, Tekeze, and Awash River basins in Ethiopia. We also assessed the water policy scenario to evaluate its appropriateness to prevent and control pollution. To investigate the level of understanding and implementation of regulatory frameworks and policies related to water resources, we reviewed the policy documents and conducted in-depth interviews of the stakeholders. Physicochemical and biological data revealed that there is significant water quality deterioration at the impacted sites (agriculture, coffee processing, and urban landscapes) compared to reference sites (forested landscapes) in all four basins. The analysis of legal, policy, and institutional framework showed a lack of cooperation between stakeholders, lack of knowledge of the policy documents, absence of enforcement strategies, unavailability of appropriate working guidelines, and disconnected institutional setup at the grass root level to implement the set strategies as the major problems. In conclusion, river water pollution is a growing challenge and needs urgent action to implement intersectoral collaboration for water resource management that will eventually lead toward integrated watershed management. Revision of policy and increasing the awareness and participation of implementers are vital to improve ecological quality of rivers.

  8. Developing scenario-based serious games for complex cognitive skills acquisition: Design, development and evaluation of the EMERGO platform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slootmaker, Aad; Kurvers, Hub; Hummel, Hans; Koper, Rob

    2014-01-01

    Serious games are considered to provide powerful and attractive ways to acquire complex cognitive skills for education and training. But existing platforms for development of game-based e-learning often appear either not to be very user-friendly or too rigid or costly. This article addresses the

  9. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  10. Organizational Development: Values, Process, and Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margulies, Newton; Raia, Anthony P.

    The current state-of-the-art of organizational development is the focus of this book. The five parts into which the book is divided are as follows: Part One--Introduction (Organizational Development in Perspective--the nature, values, process, and technology of organizational development); Part Two--The Components of Organizational Developments…

  11. Robot development for nuclear material processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedrotti, L.R.; Armantrout, G.A.; Allen, D.C.; Sievers, R.H. Sr.

    1991-07-01

    The Department of Energy is seeking to modernize its special nuclear material (SNM) production facilities and concurrently reduce radiation exposures and process and incidental radioactive waste generated. As part of this program, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) lead team is developing and adapting generic and specific applications of commercial robotic technologies to SNM pyrochemical processing and other operations. A working gantry robot within a sealed processing glove box and a telerobot control test bed are manifestations of this effort. This paper describes the development challenges and progress in adapting processing, robotic, and nuclear safety technologies to the application. 3 figs

  12. Safety guides development process in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butragueno, J.L.; Perello, M.

    1979-01-01

    Safety guides have become a major factor in the licensing process of nuclear power plants and related nuclear facilities of the fuel cycle. As far as the experience corroborates better and better engineering methodologies and procedures, the results of these are settled down in form of standards, guides, and similar issues. This paper presents the actual Spanish experience in nuclear standards and safety guides development. The process to develop a standard or safety guide is shown. Up to date list of issued and on development nuclear safety guides is included and comments on the future role of nuclear standards in the licensing process are made. (author)

  13. Adapting the unified software development process for user interface development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Obrenovic, Z.; Starcevic, D.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we describe how existing software developing processes, such as Rational Unified Process, can be adapted in order to allow disciplined and more efficient development of user interfaces. The main objective of this paper is to demonstrate that standard modeling environments, based on the

  14. Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of “Brexit”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisa A. Boden

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological “risk factors” and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and

  15. Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of "Brexit".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Lisa A; Auty, Harriet; Reeves, Aaron; Rydevik, Gustaf; Bessell, Paul; McKendrick, Iain J

    2017-01-01

    Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological "risk factors") and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health

  16. Animal Health Surveillance in Scotland in 2030: Using Scenario Planning to Develop Strategies in the Context of “Brexit”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Lisa A.; Auty, Harriet; Reeves, Aaron; Rydevik, Gustaf; Bessell, Paul; McKendrick, Iain J.

    2017-01-01

    Animal health surveillance is necessary to protect human and animal health, rural economies, and the environment from the consequences of large-scale disease outbreaks. In Scotland, since the Kinnaird review in 2011, efforts have been made to engage with stakeholders to ensure that the strategic goals of surveillance are better aligned with the needs of the end-users and other beneficiaries. The aims of this study were to engage with Scottish surveillance stakeholders and multidisciplinary experts to inform the future long-term strategy for animal health surveillance in Scotland. In this paper, we describe the use of scenario planning as an effective tool for the creation and exploration of five plausible long-term futures; we describe prioritization of critical drivers of change (i.e., international trade policy, data-sharing philosophies, and public versus private resourcing of surveillance capacity) that will unpredictably influence the future implementation of animal health surveillance activities. We present 10 participant-developed strategies to support 3 long-term visions to improve future resilience of animal health surveillance and contingency planning for animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks in Scotland. In the absence of any certainty about the nature of post-Brexit trade agreements for agriculture, participants considered the best investments for long-term resilience to include data collection strategies to improve animal health benchmarking, user-benefit strategies to improve digital literacy in farming communities, and investment strategies to increase veterinary and scientific research capacity in rural areas. This is the first scenario planning study to explore stakeholder beliefs and perceptions about important environmental, technological, societal, political, and legal drivers (in addition to epidemiological “risk factors”) and effective strategies to manage future uncertainties for both the Scottish livestock industry and animal health

  17. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender [Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina (RS); Kabashi, Gazmend [Faculty of Electric Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina (RS); Najdovski, Dimitrij [X3DATA, Novi trg 6, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Zidansek, Aleksander [Jozef Stefan Institute and Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Slaus, Ivo [R. Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka 54, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, NO{sub x}, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO{sub 2}, dust CH{sub x}, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible. (author)

  18. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender; Kabashi, Gazmend; Najdovski, Dimitrij; Zidansek, Aleksander; Slaus, Ivo

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , NO x , etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO 2 , dust CH x , etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible.

  19. Assessment and Development of Engineering Design Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ulrikkeholm, Jeppe Bjerrum

    , the engineering companies need to have efficient engineering design processes in place, so they can design customised product variants faster and more efficiently. It is however not an easy task to model and develop such processes. To conduct engineering design is often a highly iterative, illdefined and complex...... the process can be fully understood and eventually improved. Taking its starting point in this proposition, the outcome of the research is an operational 5-phased procedure for assessing and developing engineering design processes through integrated modelling of product and process, designated IPPM......, and eventually the results are discussed, overall conclusions are made and future research is proposed. The results produced throughout the research project are developed in close collaboration with the Marine Low Speed business unit within the company MAN Diesel & Turbo. The business unit is the world market...

  20. Integrating ergonomics into the product development process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole

    1997-01-01

    and production engineers regarding information sources in problem solving, communication pattern, perception of ergonomics, motivation and requests to support tools and methods. These differences and the social and organizational contexts of the development process must be taken into account when considering......A cross-sectional case study was performed in a large company producing electro-mechanical products for industrial application. The purpose was to elucidate conditions and strategies for integrating ergonomics into the product development process thereby preventing ergonomic problems at the time...... of manufacture of new products. In reality the product development process is not a rational problem solving process and does not proceed in a sequential manner as decribed in engineering models. Instead it is a complex organizational process involving uncertainties, iterative elements and negotiation between...

  1. Developing a CBA Methodology for the Scenario-Based Land-Use Impact Assessment of Proposed Rail Investments in the Leipzig Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ustaoglu, Eda; Williams, Brndan; Petrov, Laura Oana

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a methodological approach to be utilised for the evaluation of transport-land-use impacts of rapid rail investments in the Leipzig Region with the potential for this approach to be used for other European regions. Various land development scenarios are generated from the MOLAN...

  2. Fabrication Process Development for Light Deformable Mirrors

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The project objective is to develop robust, reproductibble fabrication processes to realize functional deformable membrane mirrors (DM) for a space mission in which...

  3. Recent Developments in Abrasive Hybrid Manufacturing Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruszaj Adam

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent dynamic development of abrasive hybrid manufacturing processes results from application of a new difficult for machining materials and improvement of technological indicators of manufacturing processes already applied in practice. This tendency also occurs in abrasive machining processes which are often supported by ultrasonic vibrations, electrochemical dissolution or by electrical discharges. In the paper we present the review of new results of investigations and new practical applications of Abrasive Electrodischarge (AEDM and Electrochemical (AECM Machining.

  4. Itataia project - Development of the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coelho, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    A process for treating the phosphorus uraniferous ore, from Itataia-CE mine in Brazil, was developed, establishing the basic flow chart for recovery two products: uranium concentrate and phosphoric acid. The developed process consists in physical concentration, chemical separation, solvent extraction, and it presented, in laboratory and pilot scales, recovery levels which assure the project viability technicaly and economicaly. The consolidation of project and the description of installations are presented by a documentary film. (M.C.K.) [pt

  5. Itataia project - Development of the process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coelho, S.V.

    1987-01-01

    A process for treating the phosphorous uraniferous ore, from Itataia-CE mine in Brazil, was developed, establishing the basic flow chart for recovery two products: uranium concentrate and phosphoric acid. The developed process consists in physical concentration, chemical separation, solvent extraction, and it presented, in laboratory and pilot scales, recovery leves which assure the project viability technically and economically. The consolidation of project and the description of installations are presented by a documentary film. (M.C.K.) [pt

  6. Teaching Information Systems Development via Process Variants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Wee-Kek; Tan, Chuan-Hoo

    2010-01-01

    Acquiring the knowledge to assemble an integrated Information System (IS) development process that is tailored to the specific needs of a project has become increasingly important. It is therefore necessary for educators to impart to students this crucial skill. However, Situational Method Engineering (SME) is an inherently complex process that…

  7. Biocatalytic process development using microfluidic miniaturized systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krühne, Ulrich; Heintz, Søren; Ringborg, Rolf Hoffmeyer

    2014-01-01

    The increasing interest in biocatalytic processes means there is a clear need for a new systematic development paradigm which encompasses both protein engineering and process engineering. This paper argues that through the use of a new microfluidic platform, data can be collected more rapidly...

  8. Process Consultation: Its Role in Organization Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schein, Edgar H.

    This volume focuses on the process by which the consultant builds readiness for organizational development (OD) programs, actually conducts training, and works with the key individuals of an organization as part of an OD program. Part I describes in some detail the human processes in organizations--communication, functional roles of group members,…

  9. Advances in the Process Development of Biocatalytic Processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tufvesson, Pär; Lima Ramos, Joana; Al-Haque, Naweed

    2013-01-01

    Biocatalysis is already established in chemical synthesis on an industrial scale, in particular in the pharmaceutical sector. However, the wider implementation of biocatalysis is currently hindered by the extensive effort required to develop a competitive process. In order that resources spent...

  10. Process-Based Quality (PBQ) Tools Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cummins, J.L.

    2001-12-03

    The objective of this effort is to benchmark the development of process-based quality tools for application in CAD (computer-aided design) model-based applications. The processes of interest are design, manufacturing, and quality process applications. A study was commissioned addressing the impact, current technologies, and known problem areas in application of 3D MCAD (3-dimensional mechanical computer-aided design) models and model integrity on downstream manufacturing and quality processes. The downstream manufacturing and product quality processes are profoundly influenced and dependent on model quality and modeling process integrity. The goal is to illustrate and expedite the modeling and downstream model-based technologies for available or conceptual methods and tools to achieve maximum economic advantage and advance process-based quality concepts.

  11. Time Processing Impairments in Preschoolers at Risk of Developing Difficulties in Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobia, Valentina; Rinaldi, Luca; Marzocchi, Gian Marco

    2018-01-01

    The occurrence of time processing problems in individuals with Development Dyscalculia (DD) has favored the view of a general magnitude system devoted to both numerical and temporal information. Yet, this scenario has been partially challenged by studies indicating that time difficulties can be attributed to poor calculation or counting skills,…

  12. Identifying bio-physical, social and political challenges to catchment governance for sustainable freshwater fisheries in West Africa: Systems overview through scenario development in the SUSFISH project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sendzimir, Jan; Slezak, Gabriele; Melcher, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Chronic and episodic water scarcity prompted construction of 1400 reservoirs in Burkina Faso since 1950, greatly expanding fisheries production. These fisheries provided an increasingly important protein source for a population that has risen 600% since 1920, but production has plateaued, and dramatic declines in adult fish size suggest these fisheries are not sustainable. The SUSFISH project joined Austrian and Burkinabe scientists to increase local capacities to manage fisheries sustainably. SUSFISH has successfully increased capacity to monitor fish populations, identify endangered species, and use specific fish and macroinvertebrate species as bio-indicators of water and habitat quality as well as anthropogenic pressures. But projects to support sustainable development in Africa have a long history of failure if only based on transfer of technology and theory based on bio-physical sciences. This paper describes the processes and products of knowledge elicitation, scenario development and systems analysis to identify barriers and bridges to long-term sustainable fisheries development that arise from bio-physical, social, political and cultural causes, and, especially, interactions between them. Lessons learned and important on-going research questions are identified for both the natural and social sciences as they apply to managing catchments at multiple scales of governance, from local to national.

  13. New product development processes for ICT-for-development projects

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    McAlister, BN

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available in developing regions of the world is increasing rapidly. A number of methods and practices have been used by organizations to develop and deliver such ICT solutions, but a need exists to formalize product development processes for use in the ICT...

  14. Emergency exercise scenario tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoeblom, K.

    1998-03-01

    Nuclear power plant emergency exercises require a realistically presented accident situation which includes various aspects: plant process, radioactivity, radiation, weather and people. Experiences from nuclear power plant emergency exercises show that preparing accident scenarios even for relatively short exercises is tedious. In the future modern computer technology and past experience could be used for making exercise planning more effective. (au)

  15. Cognitive Process of Development in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boddington, Eulalee N.

    2009-01-01

    In this article we explored the theories of Arnold Gesell, Erik Erickson and Jean Piaget about how human beings development. In this component we will analyze the cognitive processes of how children perceive and develop, in particular children from a cross-cultural background. How learning takes place, and how the influences of culture, and…

  16. Automating Software Development Process using Fuzzy Logic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marcelloni, Francesco; Aksit, Mehmet; Damiani, Ernesto; Jain, Lakhmi C.; Madravio, Mauro

    2004-01-01

    In this chapter, we aim to highlight how fuzzy logic can be a valid expressive tool to manage the software development process. We characterize a software development method in terms of two major components: artifact types and methodological rules. Classes, attributes, operations, and inheritance

  17. Biochemical Changes during Development Process of Anther ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ERCAN

    2012-02-20

    Feb 20, 2012 ... The main metabolic substances changes during the development process of anther-derived embryos in loquat (Eriobotrya japonica Lindl. ... provide energy for the new development phase (Zang et al., 2004; He and Qi, 2002). ... were used for experimental materials (Figure 1) such as embryogenic calluses ...

  18. Scenarios for Development of Scientific and Innovative Potential of Ukraine under Conditions of a New Industrial Revolution and Association with the EU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matyushenko Igor Yu.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of the scenario simulation of scientific and innovative development of Ukraine to determine the appropriate method of its management under conditions of a new industrial revolution and association with the EU. It is shown that the best scenario that in the long run provides a significant improvement in the results of scientific and technological development is a scenario of increasing the level of R&D expenditures to the EU target figure amounting to 4% of GDP. But this scenario is unlikely. It is found that the optimal level of expenditures can be considered as 2.5% of GDP, which can be achieved in the medium term; in this case raising the level of expenditures to 1.7-2% of GDP gives certain results but does not produce sufficient resources for a long-term development. It is proved that in order to achieve significant results in scientific and technological development, the increase in expenditures on R&D should be accompanied by forming clusters, increasing the level of protection of investors, providing development of high-tech industries and employment in this sphere, as well as facilitating the access to ICTs. It is found that a prerequisite for an effective scientific and technological development is stimulation of the population interest in obtaining high-quality professional education, including through the promotion by employers.

  19. Women's Drinking Decisions in Heterosocial Situations: Development and Validation of Scenarios to Assess Influence of Attraction and Risk-Awareness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noel, Nora E; Ogle, Richard L; Maisto, Stephen A; Jackson, Lee A; Loomis, Randi B; Heaton, Jennifer A

    2016-07-01

    These three related studies created a set of ecologically valid scenarios for assessing relative associations of both attraction and sexual coercion risk-recognition in college women's heterosocial situational drinking decisions. The first study constructed nine scenarios using input from heterosexual drinking women in the age cohort (18-30) most likely to experience alcohol-related sexual coercion. In the second study, 50 female undergraduates (ages 18-25) assessed the salience of three important dimensions (attraction, risk, and realism) in these scenarios. The third study was a factor analysis (and a follow-up confirmatory factor analysis) of the elements of coercion-risk as perceived by the target group with two female samples recruited 1 year apart (Sample 1: N = 157, ages 18-29); Sample 2: N = 157, ages 18-30). Results confirmed that the scenarios could be a useful vehicle for assessing how women balance out risk and attraction to make in-the moment heterosocial drinking decisions. The factor analysis showed participants perceived two types of situations, based on whether the male character was "Familiar" or "Just Met" and perceived themselves as happier and more excited with Familiar males. However, in contrast to HIV risk studies, Familiar males were perceived as higher risk for unwanted sex. Future research will use the six scenarios that emerged from the factor analysis to study how attraction and risk perception differentially affect young adult women's social drinking decisions.

  20. Adult Personality Development: Dynamics and Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Diehl, Manfred; Hooker, Karen

    2013-01-01

    The focus of this special issue of Research in Human Development is on adult personality and how personality may contribute to and be involved in adult development. Specifically, the contributions in this issue focus on the links between personality structures (e.g., traits) and personality processes (e.g., goal pursuit, self--regulation) and emphasize the contributions that intensive repeated measurement approaches can make to the understanding of personality and development across the adult...

  1. The software development process in worldwide collaborations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amako, K.

    1998-01-01

    High energy physics experiments in future colliders are inevitably large scale international collaborations. In these experiments, software development has to be done by a large number of physicists, software engineers and computer scientists, dispersed all over the world. The major subject of this paper is to discuss on various aspects of software development in the worldwide environment. These include software engineering and methodology, software development process and management. (orig.)

  2. Developments on uranium enrichment processes in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frejacques, C.; Gelee, M.; Massignon, D.; Plurien, P.

    1977-01-01

    Gaseous diffusion has so far been the main source of supply for enriched uranium and it is only recently that the gas centrifuge came into the picture. Numerous other isotope separation processes have been considered or are being assessed, and there is nothing to exclude the future use of a new process. Developments on likely new processes have been carried out by many organizations both governmental and private. The French Commissariat a l'energie atomique, besides their very extensive endeavours already devoted to gaseous diffusion, have studied and developed the gas centrifuge, chemical exchange, aerodynamic and selective photoexcitation processes. The gaseous diffusion process, selected by Eurodif for the Tricastin plant, and which will also be used by Coredif, is discussed in another paper in these Proceedings. This process is the technico-economic yardstick on which our comparisons are based. Within the limits of their development level, processes are compared on the basis of the separative work cost components: specific investment, specific power consumption and power cost, and specific operating and maintenance costs. (author)

  3. Integrated durability process in product development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pompetzki, M.; Saadetian, H.

    2002-01-01

    This presentation describes the integrated durability process in product development. Each of the major components of the integrated process are described along with a number of examples of how integrated durability assessment has been used in the ground vehicle industry. The durability process starts with the acquisition of loading information, either physically through loads measurement or virtually through multibody dynamics. The loading information is then processed and characterized for further analysis. Durability assessment was historically test based and completed through field or laboratory evaluation. Today, it is common that both the test and CAE environments are used together in durability assessment. Test based durability assessment is used for final design sign-off but is also critically important for correlating CAE models, in order to investigate design alternatives. There is also a major initiative today to integrate the individual components into a process, by linking applications and providing a framework to communicate information as well as manage all the data involved in the entire process. Although a single process is presented, the details of the process can vary significantly for different products and applications. Recent applications that highlight different parts of the durability process are given. As well as an example of how integration of software tools between different disciplines (MBD, FE and fatigue) not only simplifies the process, but also significantly improves it. (author)

  4. Development of synthetic gasoline production process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Imai, T; Fujita, H; Yamada, K; Suzuki, T; Tsuchida, Y

    1986-01-01

    As oil deposits are limited, it is very important to develop techniques for manufacturing petroleum alternatives as substitute energy sources to brighten the outlook for the future. The Research Association for Petroleum Alternatives Development (RAPAD) in Japan is engaged in the research and development of production techniques for light hydrocarbon oils such as gasoline, kerosene, and light oil from synthesis gas (CO, H/sub 2/) obtained from the raw materials of natural gas, coal, etc. Regarding the MTG process of synthesizing gasoline via methanol from synthesis gas and the STG process of directly synthesizing gasoline from synthesis gas, Cosmo Oil Co., Ltd. and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., members of RAPAD, have sought jointly to develop catalysts and processes. As a result of this co-operation, the authors have recently succeeded in developing a new catalyst with a long life span capable of providing a high yield and high selectivity. Additionally, the authors are currently on the verge of putting into effect a unique two-step STG process of synthesizing high octane gasoline via dimethyl ether, referred to as the AMSTG process.

  5. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  6. Development of a real-time simulation tool towards self-consistent scenario of plasma start-up and sustainment on helical fusion reactor FFHR-d1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, T.; Miyazawa, J.; Sakamoto, R.; Suzuki, Y.; Suzuki, C.; Seki, R.; Satake, S.; Huang, B.; Nunami, M.; Yokoyama, M.; Sagara, A.; the FFHR Design Group

    2017-06-01

    This study closely investigates the plasma operation scenario for the LHD-type helical reactor FFHR-d1 in view of MHD equilibrium/stability, neoclassical transport, alpha energy loss and impurity effect. In 1D calculation code that reproduces the typical pellet discharges in LHD experiments, we identify a self-consistent solution of the plasma operation scenario which achieves steady-state sustainment of the burning plasma with a fusion gain of Q ~ 10 was found within the operation regime that has been already confirmed in LHD experiment. The developed calculation tool enables systematic analysis of the operation regime in real time.

  7. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  8. Development of DUMAS data processing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakamoto, Hiroshi

    1982-01-01

    In the field of nuclear experiments, the speed-up of data processing has been required recently along with the increase of the amount of data per event or the rate of event occurrence per unit time. In the DUMAS project of RCNP, the development of data processing system has been required, which can perform the high speed transfer and processing. The system should transfer the data of 5 multiwire proportional counters and other counters from the laboratory to the counting room at the rate of 1000 events every second, and also should perform considerably complex processes such as histogramming, particle identification, calculation of various polarizations as well as dumping to the secondary memory in the counting room. Furthermore, easy start-up, adjustment, inspection and maintenance and non-special hardware and software should be considered. A system presently being investigated for satisfying the above requirements is described. The main points are as follows: to employ CAMAC system for the interface with readout circuit, to transfer data between the laboratory and the counting room by converting the byte-serial transfer to the bit-serial optical fiber communication, and to unify the data processing computers to the PDP-11 family by connecting two miniature computers. Development of such a data processing system seems to be useful as an preparatory research for the development of NUMATRON measuring instruments. (Wakatsuki, Y.)

  9. Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health Benefits of Various Solar Photovoltaic Development Scenarios in China in 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Wagner, F.; Li, X.

    2016-12-01

    Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology can greatly reduce both air pollution and GHG emissions from the power sector. The Chinese government has plans to scale up solar PV installation between now and 2030. However, there is little analysis of how deployment strategies will influence the range of benefits. Here we conduct the first integrated assessment study that quantifies the climate, air quality, and related human health benefits of various solar PV development strategies in 2030 China. Our results indicate that both the location of PV deployment, which coal power plants are replaced, and the extent of inter-provincial transmission greatly influence the co-benefits. We compare CO2 and PM2.5 reductions from two PV installation scenarios both with the 2030 government target of 400 GW national installed capacity. First, we assume all solar PV is utilized within the province in which it is generated and that it can not exceed 30% of total provincial electricity generation. We find that deploying more solar PV in locations near load centers via distributed PV systems has larger benefits and could lead to approximately 20,500 (between 8000 - 32,400, high and low bounds) annual avoided premature deaths, 15% more than building utility-scale solar PV plants in the sunny, yet sparsely populated northwest. The difference occurs because in the northwest a lower population and cleaner air leads to smaller reductions in air pollution related premature mortalities. Also greater potential for PV curtailment exists in the west. In terms of CO2 reduction, deploying PV near load centers leads to 12% greater reductions in CO2 emissions from the power sector - approximately 5% of China's total CO2 emission in 2030. Second, we enable inter-provincial transmission of PV electricity within each of China's six regional grids which allows greater use of abundant sunlight in the northwest. Our results for 2030 show that by expanding to the regional grid, curtailment rates in the northwest

  10. Development of modified FT (MFT) process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jinglai Zhou; Zhixin Zhang; Wenjie Shen [Institute of Coal Chemistry, Taiyuan (China)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    Two-Stage Modified FT (MFT) process has been developed for producing high-octane gasoline from coal-based syngas. The main R&D are focused on the development of catalysts and technologies process. Duration tests were finished in the single-tube reactor, pilot plant (100T/Y), and industrial demonstration plant (2000T/Y). A series of satisfactory results has been obtained in terms of operating reliability of equipments, performance of catalysts, purification of coal - based syngas, optimum operating conditions, properties of gasoline and economics etc. Further scaling - up commercial plant is being considered.

  11. Development of coal partial hydropyrolysis process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hideaki Yabe; Takafumi Kawamura; Kohichiroh Gotoh; Akemitsu Akimoto [Nippon Steel Corporation, Chiba (Japan)

    2005-07-01

    Coal partial hydropyrolysis process aims at co-production of high yield of light oil such as BTX and naphthalene and synthesis gas from a low rank coal under a mild hydropyrolysis condition. The characteristic of this process is in the two-staged entrained hydropyrolysis reactor composed of the reformer and gasifier. This reactor arrangement gives us high heat efficiency of this process. So far, in order to evaluate the process concept a small-scale basic experiment and a 1t/day process development unit study were carried out. The experimental results showed that coal volatiles were partially hydrogenated to increase the light oil and hydrocarbon gases at the condition of partial hydropyrolysis such as pressure of 2-3MPa, temperature of 700-900{sup o}C and hydrogen concentration of 30-50%. This process has a possibility of producing efficiently and economically liquid and gas products as chemicals and fuel for power generation. As a further development in the period of 2003 to 2008, a 20t/day pilot plant study named ECOPRO (efficient co-production with coal flash hydropyrolysis technology) has been started to establish the process technologies for commercialization. 12 refs., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  12. Participatory scenario development to address potential impacts of land use change : An example from the Italian alps

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malek, Žiga; Boerboom, Luc

    2015-01-01

    Changes to land use such as the removal of natural vegetation and expansion of urban areas can result in degradation of the landscape and an increase in hydro-meteorological risk. This has led to higher interest by decision-makers and scientists in the future consequences of these drivers. Scenario

  13. The Scenario Approach to the Development of Regional Waste Management Systems (Implementation Experience in the Regions of Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fomin, Eugene P.; Alekseev, Audrey A.; Fomina, Natalia E.; Dorozhkin, Vladimir E.

    2016-01-01

    The article illustrates a theoretical approach to scenario modeling of economic indicators of regional waste management system. The method includes a three-iterative algorithm that allows the executive authorities and investors to take a decision on logistics, bulk, technological and economic parameters of the formation of the regional long-term…

  14. Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

    2016-01-01

    Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

  15. [Social forces and the communicative scenario in health education: the case of the growth and development program].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peñaranda-Correa, Fernando

    2011-10-01

    to understand how the significance of child rearing is construed in the Growth and Development Monitoring Program as a way of studying health education and enhancing its theoretical and pedagogical framework. an ethnographic study in four health institutions in Medellín, Colombia, developed through observation of sessions and interviews with actors, namely significant adults and health team members. a communicative process based on a behavioral education model is established to modify behavior and to impose cultural values. the pedagogical setting or micro-context is influenced by powerful macro-contextual forces, which are a product of uneven distribution of social, cultural and economic capital. Consequently, significant adults and health team members are situated at two different communicative levels for the construction of significance, which affects communication between them. Understanding this social process from a wider theoretical perspective strengthens critical positions, which is required for achieving more pertinent health education from a socio-cultural dimension.

  16. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. HEALTH SCENARIO IN INDIA. Health Doctor / Hospital Infant expenditure 1000 beds / 1000 mortality / % GDP 1000. India 0.8 0.47 0.8 71. World 2.6 1.5 3.3 54. Developed 6.1 2.8 7.2 6 Countries.

  17. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  18. Development of climate change scenarios to evaluate the impacts of temperature change on the energy demand in south of Quebec

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamount, D.

    2008-01-01

    'Full text': In year 2000, Hydro-Quebec Distribution began to integrate temperature change in the planning of Quebec energy demand. With the evolution of knowledge in climate change science and the availability of larger ensemble of climate projections from GCMs (Global Climate Model), the methodology has progressively improved and uncertainties are now more efficiently taken into account. Inclusion of temperature evolution in the estimation of energy demand covers two issues : 1) the adjustment of climate normals as reference values and 2) integration of the climate change scenario in long term planning (horizon 2040). Recently, the analysis of an ensemble of climate simulations produced from 17 different GCMs forced by 3 emissions scenarios for a total of 39 projections, enabled these two aspects to be effectively addressed. Following the analysis the use of linear temperature increase on a monthly basis is recommended for the needs of addressing climate change impacts on energy demand. Higher slope values are obtained during winter while lower ones are present in summer. Heating and cooling degree days have then been calculated for an optimistic, median and pessimistic climate change scenario to evaluate economic impacts of temperature change on three energy sources: hydro-power, natural gas and heating oil. The evaluation was carried out taking into account not only the temperature change scenario but demographical and economical scenarios as well. Obviously, temperature increase will cause opposite effects for the winter and summer seasons (reducing energy demand for heating purpose during winter while increasing cooling demand during summer). However, comparing energy sources, combustibles might see a more important decrease than hydro-power. Overall, the net effect of temperature change on energy demand is quite small: a reduction of 2 to 3% is projected. (author)

  19. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN PROJECT FEATURE, EVENT, AND PROCESS (FEP) DATABASE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freeze, G.; Swift, P.; Brodsky, N.

    2000-01-01

    A Total System Performance Assessment for Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) has recently been completed (CRWMS M andO, 2000b) for the potential high-level waste repository at the Yucca Mountain site. The TSPA-SR is an integrated model of scenarios and processes relevant to the postclosure performance of the potential repository. The TSPA-SR scenarios and model components in turn include representations of all features, events, and processes (FEPs) identified as being relevant (i.e., screened in) for analysis. The process of identifying, classifying, and screening potentially relevant FEPs thus provides a critical foundation for scenario development and TSPA analyses for the Yucca Mountain site (Swift et al., 1999). The objectives of this paper are to describe (a) the identification and classification of the comprehensive list of FEPs potentially relevant to the postclosure performance of the potential Yucca Mountain repository, and (b) the development, structure, and use of an electronic database for storing and retrieving screening information about the inclusion and/or exclusion of these Yucca Mountain FEPs in TSPA-SR. The FEPs approach to scenario development is not unique to the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). General systematic approaches are summarized in NEA (1992). The application of the FEPs approach in several other international radioactive waste disposal programs is summarized in NEA ( 1999)

  20. WP1 Development of New Standardization Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this work package can be divided into two main areas: 1. Review of existing standardization procedures with focus on leading edge fatigue cracks and recommendations / rules for avoiding leading edge cracks. 2. Development of a new standardization process focusing on leading edge...

  1. L2 Chinese: Grammatical Development and Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mai, Ziyin

    2016-01-01

    Two recent books (Jiang, 2014, "Advances in Chinese as a second language"; Wang, 2013, "Grammatical development of Chinese among non-native speakers") provide new resources for exploring the role of processing in acquiring Chinese as a second language (L2). This review article summarizes, assesses and compares some of the…

  2. Interpartner Legitimacy in the Alliance Development Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kumar, Rajesh; Das, T.K.

    2007-01-01

    We propose a framework to understand interpartner legitimacy in strategic alliances. Interpartner legitimacy is the mutual acknowledgment by the alliance partners that their actions are proper in the developmental processes of the alliance. We argue that interpartner legitimacy is needed...... legitimacy in different alliance types. Finally, we derive propositions for further research, and discuss strategies that alliance managers can adopt to develop interpartner legitimacy....

  3. Academic writing development: a complex, dynamic process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penris, Wouter; Verspoor, Marjolijn; Pfenniger, Simone; Navracsics, Judit

    2017-01-01

    Traditionally we look at learning outcomes by examining single outcomes. A new and future direction is to look at the actual process of development. Imagine an advanced, 17-year-old student of English (L2) who has just finished secondary school in the Netherlands and wants to become an English

  4. Spent fuel storage process equipment development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Jae Sol; Yoo, Jae Hyung

    1990-02-01

    Nuclear energy which is a major energy source of national energy supply entails spent fuels. Spent fuels which are high level radioactive meterials, are tricky to manage and need high technology. The objectives of this study are to establish and develop key elements of spent fuel management technologies: handling equipment and maintenance, process automation technology, colling system, and cleanup system. (author)

  5. Comparing different policy scenarios to reduce the consumption of ultra-processed foods in UK: impact on cardiovascular disease mortality using a modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreira, Patricia V L; Baraldi, Larissa Galastri; Moubarac, Jean-Claude; Monteiro, Carlos Augusto; Newton, Alex; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The global burden of non-communicable diseases partly reflects growing exposure to ultra-processed food products (UPPs). These heavily marketed UPPs are cheap and convenient for consumers and profitable for manufacturers, but contain high levels of salt, fat and sugars. This study aimed to explore the potential mortality reduction associated with future policies for substantially reducing ultra-processed food intake in the UK. We obtained data from the UK Living Cost and Food Survey and from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey. By the NOVA food typology, all food items were categorized into three groups according to the extent of food processing: Group 1 describes unprocessed/minimally processed foods. Group 2 comprises processed culinary ingredients. Group 3 includes all processed or ultra-processed products. Using UK nutrient conversion tables, we estimated the energy and nutrient profile of each food group. We then used the IMPACT Food Policy model to estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality from improved nutrient intakes reflecting shifts from processed or ultra-processed to unprocessed/minimally processed foods. We then conducted probabilistic sensitivity analyses using Monte Carlo simulation. Approximately 175,000 cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths might be expected in 2030 if current mortality patterns persist. However, halving the intake of Group 3 (processed) foods could result in approximately 22,055 fewer CVD related deaths in 2030 (minimum estimate 10,705, maximum estimate 34,625). An ideal scenario in which salt and fat intakes are reduced to the low levels observed in Group 1 and 2 could lead to approximately 14,235 (minimum estimate 6,680, maximum estimate 22,525) fewer coronary deaths and approximately 7,820 (minimum estimate 4,025, maximum estimate 12,100) fewer stroke deaths, comprising almost 13% mortality reduction. This study shows a substantial potential for reducing the cardiovascular disease burden through a healthier food system

  6. Students’ development in the learning process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir D. Shadrikov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A system genetics approach has been employed to study students’ mental development.Ability development is considered in terms of mastering of intellectualoperations. The study endeavors to identify the components of certain abilitiesconsciously acquired by a student in the process of learning. The study was arrangedin two directions: the teaching of students to master intellectual operationsand use them in their work with training materials, and psychological testingof control and experimental student groups before and after training tests todiagnose the level of intellectual development. The study involved teachers andstudents of primary and secondary school.

  7. The Forecast Scenarios of Development of the National Economy in the Context of the Need to Improve the «Cost of Living»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulakov Gennady T.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at elaborating and materialization of the forecast scenarios of development of the national economy in the context of substantiating the feasibility of improving the «cost of living» being the equivalent of the liability of public authorities for the value of human life. The article researches the phenomenon of the «cost of living» in the context of sustainable innovative development of a socially oriented development of economy as an axis for developing its forecast scenarios. Focus has been set on complementarity of the terms of «cost of living» and «sustainable development» in the context of satisfying vital interests of the population of Ukraine. It has been suggested that wages accounting as an equivalent to the «cost of living» should not be included with costs but with the value added, however, the growth rate of wages must not outpace the growth rate of labor productivity. For the first time on the basis of the interdisciplinary and intersectoral approach, as well as the index method, have been elaborated baseline scenarios of development of the national economy on the basis of the upgraded human development index: pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic forecasts.

  8. A multi-criteria assessment of scenarios on thermal processing of infectious hospital wastes: A case study for Central Macedonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karagiannidis, A.; Papageorgiou, A.; Perkoulidis, G.; Sanida, G.; Samaras, P.

    2010-01-01

    In Greece more than 14,000 tonnes of infectious hospital waste are produced yearly; a significant part of it is still mismanaged. Only one off-site licensed incineration facility for hospital wastes is in operation, with the remaining of the market covered by various hydroclave and autoclave units, whereas numerous problems are still generally encountered regarding waste segregation, collection, transportation and management, as well as often excessive entailed costs. Everyday practices still include dumping the majority of solid hospital waste into household disposal sites and landfills after sterilization, still largely without any preceding recycling and separation steps. Discussed in the present paper are the implemented and future treatment practices of infectious hospital wastes in Central Macedonia; produced quantities are reviewed, actual treatment costs are addressed critically, whereas the overall situation in Greece is discussed. Moreover, thermal treatment processes that could be applied for the treatment of infectious hospital wastes in the region are assessed via the multi-criteria decision method Analytic Hierarchy Process. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed and the analysis demonstrated that a centralized autoclave or hydroclave plant near Thessaloniki is the best performing option, depending however on the selection and weighing of criteria of the multi-criteria process. Moreover the study found that a common treatment option for the treatment of all infectious hospital wastes produced in the Region of Central Macedonia, could offer cost and environmental benefits. In general the multi-criteria decision method, as well as the conclusions and remarks of this study can be used as a basis for future planning and anticipation of the needs for investments in the area of medical waste management.

  9. Socio-Spatial Conflicts, Processes of Resistance and Spatial Scenario of Justice In Post- -Conflict in Colombian Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alberto Torres-Tovar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Colombia discussed 2016 Peace Accords with insurgencies (FARC and ELN, which would culmination of more than five decades of social and armed conflict, which began with a predominantly rural country and today is urban. However, the negotiations do not include the city, ignoring the dynamics and conflicts present in this. This situation leads us to think how in a context of post-conflict cities solve the socio-spatial conflicts and give attention to the demands that have marked the processes of urban and territorial resistance and be guaranteed spatial justice and the realization of right to the city. This article discusses some of these tensions.

  10. Development of enhanced sulfur rejection processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, R.H.; Luttrell, G.H.; Adel, G.T.; Richardson, P.E.

    1996-03-01

    Research at Virginia Tech led to the development of two complementary concepts for improving the removal of inorganic sulfur from many eastern U.S. coals. These concepts are referred to as Electrochemically Enhanced Sulfur Rejection (EESR) and Polymer Enhanced Sulfur Rejection (PESR) processes. The EESR process uses electrochemical techniques to suppress the formation of hydrophobic oxidation products believed to be responsible for the floatability of coal pyrite. The PESR process uses polymeric reagents that react with pyrite and convert floatable middlings, i.e., composite particles composed of pyrite with coal inclusions, into hydrophilic particles. These new pyritic-sulfur rejection processes do not require significant modifications to existing coal preparation facilities, thereby enhancing their adoptability by the coal industry. It is believed that these processes can be used simultaneously to maximize the rejection of both well-liberated pyrite and composite coal-pyrite particles. The project was initiated on October 1, 1992 and all technical work has been completed. This report is based on the research carried out under Tasks 2-7 described in the project proposal. These tasks include Characterization, Electrochemical Studies, In Situ Monitoring of Reagent Adsorption on Pyrite, Bench Scale Testing of the EESR Process, Bench Scale Testing of the PESR Process, and Modeling and Simulation.

  11. Process development for scum to biodiesel conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Chong-hao; Min, Min; Nie, Yong; Xie, Qing-long; Lu, Qian; Deng, Xiang-yuan; Anderson, Erik; Li, Dong; Chen, Paul; Ruan, Roger

    2015-06-01

    A novel process was developed for converting scum, a waste material from wastewater treatment facilities, to biodiesel. Scum is an oily waste that was skimmed from the surface of primary and secondary settling tanks in wastewater treatment plants. Currently scum is treated either by anaerobic digestion or landfilling which raised several environmental issues. The newly developed process used a six-step method to convert scum to biodiesel, a higher value product. A combination of acid washing and acid catalyzed esterification was developed to remove soap and impurities while converting free fatty acids to methyl esters. A glycerol washing was used to facilitate the separation of biodiesel and glycerin after base catalyzed transesterification. As a result, 70% of dried and filtered scum was converted to biodiesel which is equivalent to about 134,000 gallon biodiesel per year for the Saint Paul waste water treatment plant in Minnesota. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  13. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    quantitative scoring system for issue areas were applied under the base case, a tractable quantitative decision model incorporating scenarios and their likelihoods could be developed and appli& in the decision process. LLNL has developed four perturbation scenarios that address the following issues: l} low economic growth, 2) high natural gas prices, 3) dysfunctional markets, and 4) a preference for green power. We have proposed a plausible scenario that addresses each issue for discussion and consideration by the CEC. In addition, we have provided an example application of the four perturbation