Designing and Evaluating Conative Game-Based Learning Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schønau-Fog, Henrik

2014-01-01

It is an essential prerequisite to design for motivation in game-based learning applications, tools and activities. However, how is it possible to design and evaluate motivational game-based learning scenarios in a systematic process-oriented manner based on conation and player engagement? While...... of ‘continuation desire’ such as interfacing with the scenario, exploration and socialising. This paper aims to combine the concepts of Player Engagement, Conation and Continuation Desire by focusing on the conative aspects which are the essential drivers for the desire to continue any learning activity......-based learning scenarios....

Verifying real-time systems against scenario-based requirements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Li, Shuhao; Nielsen, Brian

2009-01-01

We propose an approach to automatic verification of real-time systems against scenario-based requirements. A real-time system is modeled as a network of Timed Automata (TA), and a scenario-based requirement is specified as a Live Sequence Chart (LSC). We define a trace-based semantics for a kernel...... subset of the LSC language. By equivalently translating an LSC chart into an observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original system model, the problem of verifying a real-time system against a scenario-based requirement reduces to a classical real-time model checking...

OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

2001-01-01

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

Virtual screening applications: a study of ligand-based methods and different structure representations in four different scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Hristozov, Dimitar P; Oprea, Tudor I; Gasteiger, Johann

2007-01-01

Four different ligand-based virtual screening scenarios are studied: (1) prioritizing compounds for subsequent high-throughput screening (HTS); (2) selecting a predefined (small) number of potentially active compounds from a large chemical database; (3) assessing the probability that a given structure will exhibit a given activity; (4) selecting the most active structure(s) for a biological assay. Each of the four scenarios is exemplified by performing retrospective ligand-based virtual screening for eight different biological targets using two large databases--MDDR and WOMBAT. A comparison between the chemical spaces covered by these two databases is presented. The performance of two techniques for ligand--based virtual screening--similarity search with subsequent data fusion (SSDF) and novelty detection with Self-Organizing Maps (ndSOM) is investigated. Three different structure representations--2,048-dimensional Daylight fingerprints, topological autocorrelation weighted by atomic physicochemical properties (sigma electronegativity, polarizability, partial charge, and identity) and radial distribution functions weighted by the same atomic physicochemical properties--are compared. Both methods were found applicable in scenario one. The similarity search was found to perform slightly better in scenario two while the SOM novelty detection is preferred in scenario three. No method/descriptor combination achieved significant success in scenario four.

A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

2006-12-01

A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

Process Performance Measurement for E-Government: A Case Scenario from the German Ministerial Administration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oliver Thomas

2007-06-01

Full Text Available During the last years, the realization of the E-Government driven benefits was in the center of interest at various public administrations. The article at hand outlines a process driven approach for the evaluation of technology-based performance impacts. From the German perspective, existing concepts of performance evaluation are concretized for the case scenario of the German Plan Approval Procedures.

Performance evaluation in competence-based learning model in higher education scenarios using social network: a case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katherina Edith GALLARDO CÓRDOVA

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A research about performance evaluation was conducted in a graduate online course designed in the Based-Competency Model. Facebook was used as a social and interactive tool that would permit sharing information to illustrate various aspects of diverse educational contexts as well as the impacts of the implementation of improvement projects seen from the beneficiaries’ perspective. Case Study was the methodology selected. Postgraduate students got the task to work on certain improvements on learning assessment matters. The educational scenarios were located in Mexico and Colombia. 7 units of analysis were chosen among 34 possible. The findings pointed out that students worked on their contexts in alignment with the stipulated academic competencies. The use of video materials posted and shared using Facebook allowed get a deeper understanding of the way the benefits influenced in each of the educational communities. Besides, these products evidenced students’ appropriate performance. In conclusion, the use of social networks for fortifying performance assessment is highly recommended. Moreover, it is expected that these benefits also influence some of the curricular and instructional design aspects.

Creative Classrooms through Game-Based Role-Play Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjedde, Lisa

2014-01-01

studies a framework that anchors the curriculum in game-based role-play scenarios and offers affordances for the learners to immerse themselves in the multiple perspectives of the roles. In this way of introducing problem based learning in immersive narrative environments, the learners are provided......-based role-play scenarios as a learning tool that can integrate the curriculum in meaningful context, and how it has impacted on the interaction and creative learning experiences in the class....

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

2006-07-01

control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)

Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

2006-01-01

control systems, perpetrators will attempt to control and defeat automation systems, engineering access, control systems and protective systems implemented in today's critical infrastructures. Major systems such as supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems are likely targets for attack. Not all attack scenarios have the same expected frequency or consequence. The attacks will be directed and structured and thus, are not be characterized as random events when one considers failure probabilities. Attack types differ in their consequence as a function of the probability associated with various sub events in the presence of specific system configurations. Ideally, a series of generic scenarios can be identified for each of the major critical infrastructure (CI) sectors. A scenario-based approach to risk assessment allows decision makers to place financial and personnel resources in-place for attacks that truly matter: e.g. attacks that generate physical and economic damage. The use of scenario-based analysis allows risk reduction goals to be informed by more than consequence analysis alone. The key CI targets used in the present study were identified previously as part of a mid-level consequence analysis performed at INL by the Control System Security Program (CSSP) for the National Cyber Security Div. (NCSD) of the Dept. of Homeland Security (DHS). This paper discusses the process for and results associated with the development of scenario-based cyber attacks upon control systems including the information and personnel requirements for scenario development. Challenges to scenario development including completeness and uncertainty characterization are discussed as well. Further, the scenario discussed herein, is one of a number of scenarios for infrastructures currently under review. (authors)

Multi-Scenario Use Case based Demonstration of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework Webtool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.; Mylrea, Michael E.; Gervais, Easton L.; Bhadra, Sraddhanjoli

2017-11-27

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the cybersecurity and software capabilities of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework (BCF) webtool. The webtool is designed based on BCF document and existing NIST standards. It’s capabilities and features are depicted through a building usecase with four different investment scenarios geared towards improving the cybersecurity posture of the building. BCF webtool also facilitates implementation of the goals outlined in Presidential Executive Order (EO) on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure (May 2017. In realization of the EO goals, BCF includes five core elements: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover, to help determine various policy and process level vulnerabilities and provide mitigation strategies. With the BCF webtool, an organization can perform a cybersecurity self-assessment; determine the current cybersecurity posture; define investment based goals to achieve a target state; connect the cybersecurity posture with business processes, functions, and continuity; and finally, develop plans to answer critical organizational cybersecurity questions. In this paper, the webtool and its core capabilities are depicted by performing an extensive comparative assessment over four different scenarios.

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

Science.gov (United States)

Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

2011-01-07

No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Epstein Richard H

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

Scenario-based table top simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

2012-01-01

This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...

Construct and face validity of the educational computer-based environment (ECE) assessment scenarios for basic endoneurosurgery skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Cagiltay, Nergiz Ercil; Ozcelik, Erol; Sengul, Gokhan; Berker, Mustafa

2017-11-01

In neurosurgery education, there is a paradigm shift from time-based training to criterion-based model for which competency and assessment becomes very critical. Even virtual reality simulators provide alternatives to improve education and assessment in neurosurgery programs and allow for several objective assessment measures, there are not many tools for assessing the overall performance of trainees. This study aims to develop and validate a tool for assessing the overall performance of participants in a simulation-based endoneurosurgery training environment. A training program was developed in two levels: endoscopy practice and beginning surgical practice based on four scenarios. Then, three experiments were conducted with three corresponding groups of participants (Experiment 1, 45 (32 beginners, 13 experienced), Experiment 2, 53 (40 beginners, 13 experienced), and Experiment 3, 26 (14 novices, 12 intermediate) participants). The results analyzed to understand the common factors among the performance measurements of these experiments. Then, a factor capable of assessing the overall skill levels of surgical residents was extracted. Afterwards, the proposed measure was tested to estimate the experience levels of the participants. Finally, the level of realism of these educational scenarios was assessed. The factor formed by time, distance, and accuracy on simulated tasks provided an overall performance indicator. The prediction correctness was very high for the beginners than the one for experienced surgeons in Experiments 1 and 2. When non-dominant hand is used in a surgical procedure-based scenario, skill levels of surgeons can be better predicted. The results indicate that the scenarios in Experiments 1 and 2 can be used as an assessment tool for the beginners, and scenario-2 in Experiment 3 can be used as an assessment tool for intermediate and novice levels. It can be concluded that forming the balance between perceived action capacities and skills is

Quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in the prevention of domino scenarios triggered by fire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Argenti, Francesca; Tugnoli, Alessandro; Cozzani, Valerio

2015-01-01

The evolution of domino scenarios triggered by fire critically depends on the presence and the performance of safety barriers that may have the potential to prevent escalation, delaying or avoiding the heat-up of secondary targets. The aim of the present study is the quantitative assessment of safety barrier performance in preventing the escalation of fired domino scenarios. A LOPA (layer of protection analysis) based methodology, aimed at the definition and quantification of safety barrier performance in the prevention of escalation was developed. Data on the more common types of safety barriers were obtained in order to characterize the effectiveness and probability of failure on demand of relevant safety barriers. The methodology was exemplified with a case study. The results obtained define a procedure for the estimation of safety barrier performance in the prevention of fire escalation in domino scenarios. - Highlights: • We developed a methodology for the quantitative assessment of safety barriers. • We focused on safety barriers aimed at preventing domino effect triggered by fire. • We obtained data on effectiveness and availability of the safety barriers. • The methodology was exemplified with a case study of industrial interest. • The results showed the role of safety barriers in preventing fired domino escalation

Feature, event, and process screening and scenario development for the yucca mountain total system performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swift, P.; Barr, G.; Barnard, R.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Freeze, G.; Burck, P.

2001-01-01

Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of postclosure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). To ensure clear documentation of the treatment of potentially relevant future states of the system in the Yucca Mountain license application (LA), the US Department of Energy (DOE) has chosen to adopt a scenario development process based on the methodology developed by Cranwell et al. (1990) for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Although the process, described below, has been modified somewhat as a result of experience gained in the last decade, the underlying methodology is consistent with that outlined by the DOE in the 1988 Site Characterization Plan for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) (U.S. DOE, 1988). The approach is fundamentally the same as that used in many performance assessments, including the most recent analysis of the Yucca Mountain repository by the NRC (Wescott et al., 1995). The approach has also been used by the DOE for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) (U.S. DOE, 1996), by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD), and by other radioactive waste programs internationally. Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited. (authors)

Performance Analysis of Relays in LTE for a Realistic Suburban Deployment Scenario

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Coletti, Claudio; Mogensen, Preben; Irmer, Ralf

2011-01-01

Relays are likely to play an important role in the deployment of Beyond 3G networks, such as LTE-Advanced, thanks to the possibility of effectively extending Macro network coverage and fulfilling the expected high data-rate requirements. Up until now, the relay technology potential and its cost......-effectiveness have been widely investigated in the literature, considering mainly statistical deployment scenarios, like regular networks with uniform traffic distribution. This paper is envisaged to illustrate the performances of different relay technologies (In-Band/Out-band) in a realistic suburban network...... scenario with real Macro site positions, user density map and spectrum band availability. Based on a proposed heuristic deployment algorithm, results show that deploying In-band relays can significantly reduce the user outage if high backhaul link quality is ensured, whereas Out-band relaying and the usage...

Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

Science.gov (United States)

Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

2017-01-01

The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

The feasibility of sharing simulation-based evaluation scenarios in anesthesiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Berkenstadt, Haim; Kantor, Gareth S; Yusim, Yakov; Gafni, Naomi; Perel, Azriel; Ezri, Tiberiu; Ziv, Amitai

2005-10-01

We prospectively assessed the feasibility of international sharing of simulation-based evaluation tools despite differences in language, education, and anesthesia practice, in an Israeli study, using validated scenarios from a multi-institutional United States (US) study. Thirty-one Israeli junior anesthesia residents performed four simulation scenarios. Training sessions were videotaped and performance was assessed using two validated scoring systems (Long and Short Forms) by two independent raters. Subjects scored from 37 to 95 (70 +/- 12) of 108 possible points with the "Long Form" and "Short Form" scores ranging from 18 to 35 (28.2 +/- 4.5) of 40 possible points. Scores >70% of the maximal score were achieved by 61% of participants in comparison to only 5% in the original US study. The scenarios were rated as very realistic by 80% of the participants (grade 4 on a 1-4 scale). Reliability of the original assessment tools was demonstrated by internal consistencies of 0.66 for the Long and 0.75 for the Short Form (Cronbach alpha statistic). Values in the original study were 0.72-0.76 for the Long and 0.71-0.75 for the Short Form. The reliability did not change when a revised Israeli version of the scoring was used. Interrater reliability measured by Pearson correlation was 0.91 for the Long and 0.96 for the Short Form (P Israel. The higher scores achieved by Israeli residents may be related to the fact that most Israeli residents are immigrants with previous training in anesthesia. Simulation-based assessment tools developed in a multi-institutional study in the United States can be used in Israel despite the differences in language, education, and medical system.

An ontology for automated scenario-based training

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Peeters, M.M.M.; Bosch, K. van den; Neerincx, M.A.; Meyer, J.J.Ch.

2014-01-01

An intelligent system for automated scenario-based training (SBT) needs knowledge about the training domain, events taking place in the simulated environment, the behaviour of the participating characters, and teaching strategies for effective learning. This knowledge base should be theoretically

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanchez-Iborra, Ramon; Sanchez-Gomez, Jesus; Ballesta-Viñas, Juan; Cano, Maria-Dolores; Skarmeta, Antonio F

2018-03-03

New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN) in terms of coverage, end-node's power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution known as Low Power - Wide Area Network (LP-WAN) has emerged as a promising alternative to provide with low-cost and low-power-consumption connectivity to end-nodes spread in a wide area. Concretely, the Long-Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN) technology is one of the LP-WAN platforms that is receiving greater attention from both the industry and the academia. For that reason, in this work, a comprehensive performance evaluation of LoRaWAN under different environmental conditions is presented. The results are obtained from three real scenarios, namely, urban, suburban, and rural, considering both dynamic and static conditions, hence a discussion about the most proper LoRaWAN physical-layer configuration for each scenario is provided. Besides, a theoretical coverage study is also conducted by the use of a radio planning tool considering topographic maps and a precise propagation model. From the attained results, it can be concluded that it is necessary to evaluate the propagation conditions of the deployment scenario prior to the system implantation in order to reach a compromise between the robustness of the network and the transmission data-rate.

Evaluating the Hydrologic Performance of Low Impact Development Scenarios in a Micro Urban Catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chunlin; Liu, Miao; Hu, Yuanman; Han, Rongqing; Shi, Tuo; Qu, Xiuqi; Wu, Yilin

2018-01-01

As urbanization progresses, increasingly impervious surfaces have changed the hydrological processes in cities and resulted in a major challenge for urban stormwater control. This study uses the urban stormwater model to evaluate the performance and costs of low impact development (LID) scenarios in a micro urban catchment. Rainfall-runoff data of three rainfall events were used for model calibration and validation. The pre-developed (PreDev) scenario, post-developed (PostDev) scenario, and three LID scenarios were used to evaluate the hydrologic performance of LID measures. Using reduction in annual runoff as the goal, the best solutions for each LID scenario were selected using cost-effectiveness curves. The simulation results indicated that the three designed LID scenarios could effectively reduce annual runoff volumes and pollutant loads compared with the PostDev scenario. The most effective scenario (MaxPerf) reduced annual runoff by 53.4%, followed by the sponge city (SpoPerf, 51.5%) and economy scenarios (EcoPerf, 43.1%). The runoff control efficiency of the MaxPerf and SpoPerf scenarios increased by 23.9% and 19.5%, respectively, when compared with the EcoPerf scenario; however, the costs increased by 104% and 83.6%. The reduction rates of four pollutants (TSS, TN, TP, and COD) under the MaxPerf scenario were 59.8–61.1%, followed by SpoPerf (53.9–58.3%) and EcoPerf (42.3–45.4%), and the costs of the three scenarios were 3.74, 3.47 and 1.83 million yuan, respectively. These results can provide guidance to urban stormwater managers in future urban planning to improve urban water security. PMID:29401747

Development of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenarios for the city of Tehran

Science.gov (United States)

Zolfaghari, M. R.; Peyghaleh, E.

2016-01-01

This paper presents the methodology and practical example for the application of optimization process to select earthquake scenarios which best represent probabilistic earthquake hazard in a given region. The method is based on simulation of a large dataset of potential earthquakes, representing the long-term seismotectonic characteristics in a given region. The simulation process uses Monte-Carlo simulation and regional seismogenic source parameters to generate a synthetic earthquake catalogue consisting of a large number of earthquakes, each characterized with magnitude, location, focal depth and fault characteristics. Such catalogue provides full distributions of events in time, space and size; however, demands large computation power when is used for risk assessment, particularly when other sources of uncertainties are involved in the process. To reduce the number of selected earthquake scenarios, a mixed-integer linear program formulation is developed in this study. This approach results in reduced set of optimization-based probabilistic earthquake scenario, while maintaining shape of hazard curves and full probabilistic picture by minimizing the error between hazard curves driven by full and reduced sets of synthetic earthquake scenarios. To test the model, the regional seismotectonic and seismogenic characteristics of northern Iran are used to simulate a set of 10,000-year worth of events consisting of some 84,000 earthquakes. The optimization model is then performed multiple times with various input data, taking into account probabilistic seismic hazard for Tehran city as the main constrains. The sensitivity of the selected scenarios to the user-specified site/return period error-weight is also assessed. The methodology could enhance run time process for full probabilistic earthquake studies like seismic hazard and risk assessment. The reduced set is the representative of the contributions of all possible earthquakes; however, it requires far less

Mobility Performance in Slow- and High-Speed LTE Real Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gimenez, Lucas Chavarria; Cascino, Maria Carmela; Stefan, Maria

2016-01-01

Mobility performance and handover data interruption times in real scenarios are studied by means of field measurements in an operational LTE network. Both slow- and high-speed scenarios are analyzed by collecting results from two different areas: Aalborg downtown and the highway which encircles...... in the city center as cells on the same site often cover different non-crossing street canyons. Moreover, no handover failures are experienced in the measurements which confirms robust LTE mobility performance. The average interruption time, which is at least equal to the handover execution time, lays within...... the same city. Measurements reveal that the terminal is configured by the network with different handover parametrization depending on the serving cell, which indicates the use of mobility robustness optimization. Although the network is dominated by three sector sites, no intra-site handovers are observed...

Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ramon Sanchez-Iborra

2018-03-01

Full Text Available New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN in terms of coverage, end-node’s power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution known as Low Power - Wide Area Network (LP-WAN has emerged as a promising alternative to provide with low-cost and low-power-consumption connectivity to end-nodes spread in a wide area. Concretely, the Long-Range Wide Area Network (LoRaWAN technology is one of the LP-WAN platforms that is receiving greater attention from both the industry and the academia. For that reason, in this work, a comprehensive performance evaluation of LoRaWAN under different environmental conditions is presented. The results are obtained from three real scenarios, namely, urban, suburban, and rural, considering both dynamic and static conditions, hence a discussion about the most proper LoRaWAN physical-layer configuration for each scenario is provided. Besides, a theoretical coverage study is also conducted by the use of a radio planning tool considering topographic maps and a precise propagation model. From the attained results, it can be concluded that it is necessary to evaluate the propagation conditions of the deployment scenario prior to the system implantation in order to reach a compromise between the robustness of the network and the transmission data-rate.

Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banano, E.J.; Baca, R.G.

1995-08-01

The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ''scenario approach,'' while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ''ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ''scenario'' and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository

Review of scenario selection approaches for performance assessment of high-level waste repositories and related issues.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banano, E.J. [Beta Corporation International, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Baca, R.G. [Southwest Research Inst., San Antonio, TX (United States). Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses

1995-08-01

The selection of scenarios representing plausible realizations of the future conditions-with associated probabilities of occurrence-that can affect the long-term performance of a high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repository is the commonly used method for treating the uncertainty in the prediction of the future states of the system. This method, conventionally referred to as the ``scenario approach,`` while common is not the only method to deal with this uncertainty; other method ``ch as the environmental simulation approach (ESA), have also been proposed. Two of the difficulties with the scenario approach are the lack of uniqueness in the definition of the term ``scenario`` and the lack of uniqueness in the approach to formulate scenarios, which relies considerably on subjective judgments. Consequently, it is difficult to assure that a complete and unique set of scenarios can be defined for use in a performance assessment. Because scenarios are key to the determination of the long-term performance of the repository system, this lack of uniqueness can present a considerable challenge when attempting to reconcile the set of scenarios, and their level of detail, obtained using different approaches, particularly among proponents and regulators of a HLW repository.

Comparison of traditional advanced cardiac life support (ACLS) course instruction vs. a scenario-based, performance oriented team instruction (SPOTI) method for Korean paramedic students.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Christopher C; Im, Mark; Kim, Tae Min; Stapleton, Edward R; Kim, Kyuseok; Suh, Gil Joon; Singer, Adam J; Henry, Mark C

2010-01-01

Current Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) course instruction involves a 2-day course with traditional lectures and limited team interaction. We wish to explore the advantages of a scenario-based performance-oriented team instruction (SPOTI) method to implement core ACLS skills for non-English-speaking international paramedic students. The objective of this study was to determine if scenario-based, performance-oriented team instruction (SPOTI) improves educational outcomes for the ACLS instruction of Korean paramedic students. Thirty Korean paramedic students were randomly selected into two groups. One group of 15 students was taught the traditional ACLS course. The other 15 students were instructed using a SPOTI method. Each group was tested using ACLS megacode examinations endorsed by the American Heart Association. All 30 students passed the ACLS megacode examination. In the traditional ACLS study group an average of 85% of the core skills were met. In the SPOTI study group an average of 93% of the core skills were met. In particular, the SPOTI study group excelled at physical examination skills such as airway opening, assessment of breathing, signs of circulation, and compression rates. In addition, the SPOTI group performed with higher marks on rhythm recognition compared to the traditional group. The traditional group performed with higher marks at providing proper drug dosages compared to the SPOTI students. However, the students enrolled in the SPOTI method resulted in higher megacode core compliance scores compared to students trained in traditional ACLS course instruction. These differences did not achieve statistical significance due to the small sample size. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative energy and exergy performance assessments of a microcogenerator unit in different electricity mix scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonçalves, Pedro; Angrisani, Giovanni; Roselli, Carlo; Gaspar, Adélio R.; Gameiro da Silva, Manuel

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Experimental and energy–exergy modelling of a 6 kW micro-combined heat and power unit. • Evaluation of energy and exergy efficiencies for performance assessment. • Use of exergy and energy indicators for comparison with a reference system. • Use of different renewables supply options into the electric and heat reference system. • The electric grid mix of Portugal and Italy is used and discussed. - Abstract: The Directive 2004/8/EC on the promotion of cogeneration proposes a comparative indicator based on primary energy savings, neglecting some important thermodynamic aspects, such as exergy. This study aims to compare and discuss the usefulness of a set of complementary indicators for performance assessments of cogeneration systems, concerning thermodynamic principles based on first and second law (the exergy approach). As case study, a 6 kW electric output micro-combined heat and power unit was experimentally tested and a model of the unit was developed in TRNSYS. Considering as reference a set of different heat and electricity scenarios, including the actual electric mixes of Portugal and Italy, the indicators case incon (PES) and Primary and Total Irreversibilities Savings (PIS and TIS), as well as energy and exergy renewability ratios were assessed and discussed. The results show that the use of MCHP has higher advantages for the Italian electric grid, than an equivalent scenario considering the Portuguese electric network as reference. As result, for a particular scenario analysed, PES and PIS have 3% and 6% for Portugal, and 10% and 18% for Italy, respectively. Furthermore, for one particular scenario evaluated, the indicators energetic and exergetic renewability ratios have 23% and 14%, respectively for the Portuguese electric grid, and 19% and 10% for the Italian electric system

Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

2009-01-01

This paper focuses on short-range distribution system planning using a probabilistic approach. Empirical probabilistic distributions of load demand and distributed generations are derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated into the system planning. Simulations with various...... feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved....

Feature, Event, and Process Screening and Scenario Development for the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnard, R.; Barr, G.; Burch, P.; Freeze, G.; Rechard, R.; Schenker, A.; Swift, P.

1999-01-01

Scenario development has two primary purposes in the design and documentation of post-closure performance assessments in a regulatory setting. First, scenario development ensures a sufficiently comprehensive consideration of the possible future states of the system. Second, scenario development identifies the important scenarios that must be considered in quantitative analyses of the total system performance assessment (TSPA). Section 2.0 of this report describes the scenario development process. Steps in the process are described in Section 2.1, and terms introduced in this section are defined in Section 2.2. The electronic database used to document the process is described in Section 3, and Section 4 provides a summary of the current status of the YMP scenario development work. Section 5 contains acknowledgments, and Section 6 contains a list of the references cited

Scenario sensitivity analyses performed on the PRESTO-EPA LLW risk assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bandrowski, M.S.

1988-01-01

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is currently developing standards for the land disposal of low-level radioactive waste. As part of the standard development, EPA has performed risk assessments using the PRESTO-EPA codes. A program of sensitivity analysis was conducted on the PRESTO-EPA codes, consisting of single parameter sensitivity analysis and scenario sensitivity analysis. The results of the single parameter sensitivity analysis were discussed at the 1987 DOE LLW Management Conference. Specific scenario sensitivity analyses have been completed and evaluated. Scenario assumptions that were analyzed include: site location, disposal method, form of waste, waste volume, analysis time horizon, critical radionuclides, use of buffer zones, and global health effects

Based on user interest level of modeling scenarios and browse content

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yang

2017-08-01

User interest modeling is the core of personalized service, taking into account the impact of situational information on user preferences, the user behavior days of financial information. This paper proposes a method of user interest modeling based on scenario information, which is obtained by calculating the similarity of the situation. The user's current scene of the approximate scenario set; on the "user - interest items - scenarios" three-dimensional model using the situation pre-filtering method of dimension reduction processing. View the content of the user interested in the theme, the analysis of the page content to get each topic of interest keywords, based on the level of vector space model user interest. The experimental results show that the user interest model based on the scenario information is within 9% of the user's interest prediction, which is effective.

Methodological progress in the development of scenarios for ENRESA-2000 Performance assessment exercise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortes Martin, A.

2000-01-01

ENRESA is carrying out a new safety assessment exercise for a deep geological spent fuel disposal facility located in granite, known as ENRESA-2000. One of the main objectives of this safety analysis is the integration and implementation of all R and D studies performed to date by ENRESA, as well as the identification of those aspects of the assessment which require further investigation. One of the main activities of this exercise is the selection and development of the scenarios to be quantitatively analysed during the assessment, where a scenario is defined as a sufficient number of FEPs (ie relevant features, events and processes) as well as their influence relationships, which explain the behaviour of the disposal system. As a result of these three methods, a definitive list of FEPs will be obtained for the ENRESA-2000 exercise. Once grouped into scenarios, these FEPs will be used to model and calculate consequences. This process of generation and development of scenarios for the ENRESA-2000 performance assessment exercise is presented in this paper. (Author)

Performance of aged cement - polymer composite immobilizing borate waste simulates during flooding scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eskander, S.B.; Bayoumi, T.A.; Saleh, H.M.

2012-01-01

An advanced composite of cement and water extended polyester based on the recycled Poly(ethylene terephthalate) waste was developed to incorporate the borate waste. Previous studies have reported the characterizations of the waste composite (cement-polymer composite immobilizing borate waste simulates) after 28 days of curing time. The current work studied the performance of waste composite aged for seven years and subjected to flooding scenario during 260 days using three types of water. The state of waste composite was assessed at the end of each definite interval of the water infiltration through visual examination and mechanical measurement. Scanning electron microscopy, infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and thermal analyses were used to investigate the changes that may occur in the microstructure of the waste composite under aging and flooding effects. The actual experimental results indicated reasonable evidence for the waste composite. Acceptable consistency was confirmed for the waste composite even after aging seven years and exposure to flooding scenario for 260 days.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [University of Texas at Dallas; Feng, Cong [University of Texas at Dallas; Wang, Zhenke [University of Texas at Dallas; Zhang, Jie [University of Texas at Dallas

2018-02-01

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power and currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start-time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

Performance of Agricultural Enterprises With Specialization Livestock Production After Year 2013 in the Context of CAP Development Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Basovníková

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Joining the EU, among others meant that Czech Republic has gained opportunity to draw financial funds of the EU. In the context of profitability and overall economic performance of agricultural enterprises, the most serious threat is currently reduction or even elimination of agricultural subsidies as came out from discussions about future development of the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP already in 2011. In 2011, the CAP was a point of interest especially because of approaching the end of programme period of 2007–2013. During the last decade, the CAP has been reformed substantially while these reforms and changes reflect requirements of society connected to environment, to food quality and safety, and to developing needs of the EU´s economy. Based on these discussions across all the EU countries, three principal scenarios have been formulated in order to solve the main political objectives of future CAP. In each scenario, different stress is put on single objectives of the CAP. These three scenarios are the adjustment scenario, the integration scenario and the re-focus scenario. Changes of CAP, which were covered by single scenarios have been focused on market interventions, direct payment and on policy of rural areas development.

Introducing a performance-based objective clinical examination into ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Purpose: To describe how a formative Objective Structured Clinical Examination was applied to fourth year pharmacy students at a university in Northern Cyprus. Methods: A blueprint-guided performance-based objective clinical examination was implemented. Group-prepared case scenarios based on course objectives ...

Development and application of a methodology for identifying and characterising scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Billington, D.; Bailey, L.

1998-01-01

This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base, scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. A variant scenario defined by a single initiating FEP is characterised by a sequence of events. This is represented as a 'timeline' which forms the basis for modelling that scenario. To generate a variant scenario defined by two initiating FEPs, a methodology is presented for combining the timelines for the two underlying 'single-FEP' variants. The resulting series of event sequences can be generated automatically. These sequences are then reviewed, in order to reduce the number of timelines requiring detailed consideration. This is achieved in two ways: by aggregating sequences which have similar consequence in terms of safety performance; and by combining successive intervals along a timeline where appropriate. In the context of a performance assessment, the aim is to determine the conditional risk and appropriate weight for each

Loose and Tight GNSS/INS Integrations: Comparison of Performance Assessed in Real Urban Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Falco, Gianluca; Pini, Marco; Marucco, Gianluca

2017-01-29

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSSs) remain the principal mean of positioning in many applications and systems, but in several types of environment, the performance of standalone receivers is degraded. Although many works show the benefits of the integration between GNSS and Inertial Navigation Systems (INSs), tightly-coupled architectures are mainly implemented in professional devices and are based on high-grade Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). This paper investigates the performance improvements enabled by the tight integration, using low-cost sensors and a mass-market GNSS receiver. Performance is assessed through a series of tests carried out in real urban scenarios and is compared against commercial modules, operating in standalone mode or featuring loosely-coupled integrations. The paper describes the developed tight-integration algorithms with a terse mathematical model and assesses their efficacy from a practical perspective.

An Architectural Decision Tool Based on Scenarios and Non-functional Requirements

OpenAIRE

Mr. Mahesh Parmar; Prof. W.U. Khan; Dr. Binod Kumar

2011-01-01

Software architecture design is often based on architects intuition and previous experience. Little methodological support is available, but there are still no effective solutions to guide the architectural design. The most difficult activity is the transformation from non-functional requirement specification into software architecture. To achieve above things proposed “An Architectural Decision Tool Based on Scenarios and Nonfunctional Requirementsâ€. In this proposed tool scenarios are fi...

Kalman filter for speech enhancement in cocktail party scenarios using a codebook-based approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kavalekalam, Mathew Shaji; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Gran, Fredrik

2016-01-01

Enhancement of speech in non-stationary background noise is a challenging task, and conventional single channel speech enhancement algorithms have not been able to improve the speech intelligibility in such scenarios. The work proposed in this paper investigates a single channel Kalman filter based...... trained codebook over a generic speech codebook in relation to the performance of the speech enhancement system....

Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

2016-05-01

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

The effects of scenario-based simulation course training on nurses' communication competence and self-efficacy: a randomized controlled trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Li-Ling; Chang, Wen-Hui; Hsieh, Suh-Ing

2015-01-01

Studies have shown that an underappreciation of the importance of person-centered communication and inappropriate communication training could result in unsatisfactory communication performance from nurses. There are a large number of studies about communication training for nurses, but not so many about communication training in early stages of nursing career. The purpose of this study is to compare the effect of a traditional course versus scenario-based simulation training on nurses' communication competency, communication self-efficacy, and communication performance in discharge planning Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE). A randomized controlled trial was used with a pretest and two posttests. The experimental group underwent the scenario-based simulation course, whereas the control group received the traditional course. A convenience sample of 116 nurses with qualifications ranging from N0 level (novice nurses) to N2 level (competent nurses) in Taiwan's clinical nursing ladder system was recruited from a medical center in northern Taiwan. Analysis of covariance was used to determine between-subjects effects on communication competency and self-efficacy, whereas independent t test and Mann-Whitney U test were used to examine between-subjects effects on learner satisfaction and discharge planning communication performance. Paired t test was used to determine communication self-efficacy. In this study, the nurses and independent raters found scenario-based simulation training more effective than traditional communication course. However, standardized patients reported no significant difference in communication performance between the two groups of nurses. Despite that traditional classroom lectures and simulation-based communication training could both produce enhanced communication competency and self-efficacy among nurses, this study has established that the latter may be better than the former in terms of learner satisfaction and communication

The potential of clustering methods to define intersection test scenarios: Assessing real-life performance of AEB.

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, Ulrich; Lubbe, Nils

2018-04-01

Intersection accidents are frequent and harmful. The accident types 'straight crossing path' (SCP), 'left turn across path - oncoming direction' (LTAP/OD), and 'left-turn across path - lateral direction' (LTAP/LD) represent around 95% of all intersection accidents and one-third of all police-reported car-to-car accidents in Germany. The European New Car Assessment Program (Euro NCAP) have announced that intersection scenarios will be included in their rating from 2020; however, how these scenarios are to be tested has not been defined. This study investigates whether clustering methods can be used to identify a small number of test scenarios sufficiently representative of the accident dataset to evaluate Intersection Automated Emergency Braking (AEB). Data from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) and the GIDAS-based Pre-Crash Matrix (PCM) from 1999 to 2016, containing 784 SCP and 453 LTAP/OD accidents, were analyzed with principal component methods to identify variables that account for the relevant total variances of the sample. Three different methods for data clustering were applied to each of the accident types, two similarity-based approaches, namely Hierarchical Clustering (HC) and Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), and the probability-based Latent Class Clustering (LCC). The optimum number of clusters was derived for HC and PAM with the silhouette method. The PAM algorithm was both initiated with random start medoid selection and medoids from HC. For LCC, the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was used to determine the optimal number of clusters. Test scenarios were defined from optimal cluster medoids weighted by their real-life representation in GIDAS. The set of variables for clustering was further varied to investigate the influence of variable type and character. We quantified how accurately each cluster variation represents real-life AEB performance using pre-crash simulations with PCM data and a generic algorithm for AEB intervention. The

Probabilistic Wind Power Ramp Forecasting Based on a Scenario Generation Method: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Qin [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Florita, Anthony R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Hodge, Brian S [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cui, Mingjian [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Feng, Cong [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Wang, Zhenke [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States); Zhang, Jie [Univ. of Texas-Dallas, Richardson, TX (United States)

2017-08-31

Wind power ramps (WPRs) are particularly important in the management and dispatch of wind power, and they are currently drawing the attention of balancing authorities. With the aim to reduce the impact of WPRs for power system operations, this paper develops a probabilistic ramp forecasting method based on a large number of simulated scenarios. An ensemble machine learning technique is first adopted to forecast the basic wind power forecasting scenario and calculate the historical forecasting errors. A continuous Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to fit the probability distribution function (PDF) of forecasting errors. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is analytically deduced. The inverse transform method based on Monte Carlo sampling and the CDF is used to generate a massive number of forecasting error scenarios. An optimized swinging door algorithm is adopted to extract all the WPRs from the complete set of wind power forecasting scenarios. The probabilistic forecasting results of ramp duration and start time are generated based on all scenarios. Numerical simulations on publicly available wind power data show that within a predefined tolerance level, the developed probabilistic wind power ramp forecasting method is able to predict WPRs with a high level of sharpness and accuracy.

Scenario-based resilience assessment framework for critical infrastructure systems: Case study for seismic resilience of seaports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shafieezadeh, Abdollah; Ivey Burden, Lindsay

2014-01-01

A number of metrics in the past have been proposed and numerically implemented to assess the overall performance of large systems during natural disasters and their recovery in the aftermath of the events. Among such performance measures, resilience is a reliable metric. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework for scenario-based resilience assessment of infrastructure systems. The method accounts for uncertainties in the process including the correlation of the earthquake intensity measures, fragility assessment of structural components, estimation of repair requirements, the repair process, and finally the service demands. The proposed method is applied to a hypothetical seaport terminal and the system level performance of the seaport is assessed using various performance metrics. Results of this analysis have shown that medium to large seismic events may significantly disrupt the operation of seaports right after the event and the recovery process may take months. The proposed framework will enable port stakeholders to systematically assess the most-likely performance of the system during expected future earthquake events. - Highlights: • A scenario-based framework for seismic resilience assessment of systems is presented. • Seismic resilience of a hypothetical seaport with realistic settings is studied. • Berth availability is found to govern seaport functionality following earthquakes

Rapid Development of Scenario-Based Simulations and Tutoring Systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Mohammed, John L; Sorensen, Barbara; Ong, James C; Li, Jian

2005-01-01

.... Scenario-based training, in which trainees practice handling specific situations using faithful simulations of the equipment they will use on the job has proven to be an extremely effective method...

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luo, Wei; Steptoe, Michael; Chang, Zheng; Link, Robert; Clarke, Leon; Maciejewski, Ross

2017-01-01

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

Scenario-based verification of real-time systems using UPPAAL

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Shuhao; Belaguer, Sandie; David, Alexandre

2010-01-01

Abstract This paper proposes two approaches to tool-supported automatic verification of dense real-time systems against scenario-based requirements, where a system is modeled as a network of timed automata (TAs) or as a set of driving live sequence charts (LSCs), and a requirement is specified...... as a separate monitored LSC chart. We make timed extensions to a kernel subset of the LSC language and define a trace-based semantics. By translating a monitored LSC chart to a behavior-equivalent observer TA and then non-intrusively composing this observer with the original TA modeled real-time system......, the problem of scenario-based verification reduces to a computation tree logic (CTL) real-time model checking problem. In case the real time system is modeled as a set of driving LSC charts, we translate these driving charts and the monitored chart into a behavior-equivalent network of TAs by using a “one...

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin Ten Haaf

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST results indicate that computed tomography (CT lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria.This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP, Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars, and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars per life-year gained

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

Science.gov (United States)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

A scenario based approach for flexible resource loading under uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wullink, Gerhard; Gademann, Noud; Hans, Elias W.; van Harten, Aart

2003-01-01

Order acceptance decisions in manufacture-to-order environments are often made based on incomplete or uncertain information. To promise reliable due dates and to manage resource capacity adequately, resource capacity loading is an indispensable supporting tool. We propose a scenario based approach

Design and evaluation of a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Luo, L.; Yin, H.; Cai, W.; Zhong, J.; Lees, M.

Generating suitable game scenarios that can cater for individual players has become an emerging challenge in procedural content generation. In this paper, we propose a data-driven scenario generation framework for game-based training. An evolutionary scenario generation process is designed with a

Scenario-based teaching in undergraduate medical education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patel K

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Kunj Patel, Omar El Tokhy Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UKWe read with great interest the study by Frost et al1 which highlights the importance of scenario-based teaching (SBT of clinical communication in medical undergraduate pediatrics teaching. SBT involves students navigating a storyline based around a complex problem, running in parallel with case-based learning. We were impressed by the results of the SBT program at Cardiff University School of Medicine. As medical students currently on our pediatric rotation at Imperial College London, we have experienced at first hand the benefits of SBT. Throughout the placement, it continues to help us tackle the complexities which arise when communicating with children and their families. We have noted its particular benefit in breaking bad news to families. Without effective teaching on this particular scenario, a failure to grasp this skill could exacerbate patient and parent concerns. Much like the authors of this study highlight,1 we believe specific teaching on communication skills should be a mandatory part of medical undergraduate education at every institution. Imperial College School of Medicine has developed a similar teaching style which has been unparalleled in its benefit to us during our pediatric rotation. Although there is scant literature available specifically addressing communicating with children and parents at undergraduate level, the use of SBT throughout undergraduate medical teaching should not be underestimated. Read the original paper by Frost et al

A Scenario-Based Protocol Checker for Public-Key Authentication Scheme

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Takamichi

Security protocol provides communication security for the internet. One of the important features of it is authentication with key exchange. Its correctness is a requirement of the whole of the communication security. In this paper, we introduce three attack models realized as their attack scenarios, and provide an authentication-protocol checker for applying three attack-scenarios based on the models. We also utilize it to check two popular security protocols: Secure SHell (SSH) and Secure Socket Layer/Transport Layer Security (SSL/TLS).

A novel method for energy harvesting simulation based on scenario generation

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhe; Li, Taoshen; Xiao, Nan; Ye, Jin; Wu, Min

2018-06-01

Energy harvesting network (EHN) is a new form of computer networks. It converts ambient energy into usable electric energy and supply the electrical energy as a primary or secondary power source to the communication devices. However, most of the EHN uses the analytical probability distribution function to describe the energy harvesting process, which cannot accurately identify the actual situation for the lack of authenticity. We propose an EHN simulation method based on scenario generation in this paper. Firstly, instead of setting a probability distribution in advance, it uses optimal scenario reduction technology to generate representative scenarios in single period based on the historical data of the harvested energy. Secondly, it uses homogeneous simulated annealing algorithm to generate optimal daily energy harvesting scenario sequences to get a more accurate simulation of the random characteristics of the energy harvesting network. Then taking the actual wind power data as an example, the accuracy and stability of the method are verified by comparing with the real data. Finally, we cite an instance to optimize the network throughput, which indicate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method we proposed from the optimal solution and data analysis in energy harvesting simulation.

Exploring Young Children's Performance on and Acceptance of an Educational Scenario-Based Digital Game for Teaching Route-Planning Strategies: A Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yi-Hui; Hou, Huei-Tse

2016-01-01

Researchers suggest that game-based learning (GBL) can be used to facilitate mathematics learning. However, empirical GBL research that targets young children is still limited. The purposes of the study is to develop a scenario-based digital game to promote children's route-planning ability, to empirically explore children's learning performance…

Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

2001-01-01

Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

Scenarios for waste management involving innovative systems (ADS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tommasi, J.; Bottollier-Curtet, H.; Massara, S.; Varaine, F.; Delpech, M.

2001-01-01

The global performance of reactor park scenarios based on innovative systems (Accelerator-Driven Systems, ADS) for transmutation is studied, based either on equilibrium recycling states or on high burn-up systems. The results of these first studies are preliminary but allow to assess the main parameters of the fuel cycle (inventories, mass balances, mass flows...), to evaluate the specific contributions of ADS on the main scenario parameters, and to compare subcritical systems to critical ones. (author)

Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Xu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Anggreeni, Irene

2010-01-01

The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

Scenario-based stochastic optimal operation of wind, photovoltaic, pump-storage hybrid system in frequency- based pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zare Oskouei, Morteza; Sadeghi Yazdankhah, Ahmad

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Two-stage objective function is proposed for optimization problem. • Hourly-based optimal contractual agreement is calculated. • Scenario-based stochastic optimization problem is solved. • Improvement of system frequency by utilizing PSH unit. - Abstract: This paper proposes the operating strategy of a micro grid connected wind farm, photovoltaic and pump-storage hybrid system. The strategy consists of two stages. In the first stage, the optimal hourly contractual agreement is determined. The second stage corresponds to maximizing its profit by adapting energy management strategy of wind and photovoltaic in coordination with optimum operating schedule of storage device under frequency based pricing for a day ahead electricity market. The pump-storage hydro plant is utilized to minimize unscheduled interchange flow and maximize the system benefit by participating in frequency control based on energy price. Because of uncertainties in power generation of renewable sources and market prices, generation scheduling is modeled by a stochastic optimization problem. Uncertainties of parameters are modeled by scenario generation and scenario reduction method. A powerful optimization algorithm is proposed using by General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS)/CPLEX. In order to verify the efficiency of the method, the algorithm is applied to various scenarios with different wind and photovoltaic power productions in a day ahead electricity market. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Land use change modeling through scenario-based cellular automata Markov: improving spatial forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Jahanishakib, Fatemeh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Poodat, Fatemeh

2018-05-08

Efficient land use management requires awareness of past changes, present actions, and plans for future developments. Part of these requirements is achieved using scenarios that describe a future situation and the course of changes. This research aims to link scenario results with spatially explicit and quantitative forecasting of land use development. To develop land use scenarios, SMIC PROB-EXPERT and MORPHOL methods were used. It revealed eight scenarios as the most probable. To apply the scenarios, we considered population growth rate and used a cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC) model to implement the quantified changes described by each scenario. For each scenario, a set of landscape metrics was used to assess the ecological integrity of land use classes in terms of fragmentation and structural connectivity. The approach enabled us to develop spatial scenarios of land use change and detect their differences for choosing the most integrated landscape pattern in terms of landscape metrics. Finally, the comparison between paired forecasted scenarios based on landscape metrics indicates that scenarios 1-1, 2-2, 3-2, and 4-1 have a more suitable integrity. The proposed methodology for developing spatial scenarios helps executive managers to create scenarios with many repetitions and customize spatial patterns in real world applications and policies.

Identification performance of homeland security pocket and fixed devices for masking scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulcz, Francis; Gunnink, Ray; Giribaldi, Vincent; Ellenboegen, Michal

2008-01-01

Full text: The paper presents the principle and results of recent tests of the spectrometric pocket radiation detector PDS100GN/ID and of the spectrometric portal SPIR-Ident. We have first considered the masking scenarios listed in the relevant standards of illicit trafficking. Then we considered a larger choice of realistic masking scenarios in particular, popular medical isotopes mixed with special nuclear material. We estimated through direct measurements or by simulation based on recorded or synthesized spectra the limit of imbalance that can be detected. The consequences about the use and settings of the detection and identification devices are discussed. (author)

Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES B2 Scenario, 1990-2100

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 Scenario, 1990-2100, were based on the UN 1998...

Investigating the Efficiency of Scenario Based Learning and Reflective Learning Approaches in Teacher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Hursen, Cigdem; Fasli, Funda Gezer

2017-01-01

The main purpose of this research is to investigate the efficiency of scenario based learning and reflective learning approaches in teacher education. The impact of applications of scenario based learning and reflective learning on prospective teachers' academic achievement and views regarding application and professional self-competence…

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, Lauren A

2015-01-01

Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lauren A Freeman

Full Text Available Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.

THE SCENARIOS APPROACH TO ATTENUATION-BASED REMEDIES FOR INORGANIC AND RADIONUCLIDE CONTAMINANTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vangelas, K.; Rysz, M.; Truex, M.; Brady, P.; Newell, C.; Denham, M.

2011-08-04

Guidance materials based on use of conceptual model scenarios were developed to assist evaluation and implementation of attenuation-based remedies for groundwater and vadose zones contaminated with inorganic and radionuclide contaminants. The Scenarios approach is intended to complement the comprehensive information provided in the US EPA's Technical Protocol for Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) of Inorganic Contaminants by providing additional information on site conceptual models and extending the evaluation to consideration of Enhanced Attenuation approaches. The conceptual models incorporate the notion of reactive facies, defined as units with hydrogeochemical properties that are different from surrounding units and that react with contaminants in distinct ways. The conceptual models also incorporate consideration of biogeochemical gradients, defined as boundaries between different geochemical conditions that have been induced by waste disposal or other natural phenomena. Gradients can change over time when geochemical conditions from one area migrate into another, potentially affecting contaminant mobility. A recognition of gradients allows the attenuation-affecting conditions of a site to be projected into the future. The Scenarios approach provides a stepwise process to identify an appropriate category of conceptual model and refine it for a specific site. Scenario materials provide links to pertinent sections in the EPA technical protocol and present information about contaminant mobility and important controlling mechanism for attenuation-based remedies based on the categories of conceptual models.

Scenario development methods and practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

Analysis of cloud-based solutions on EHRs systems in different scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Cardeñosa, Gonzalo; de la Torre-Díez, Isabel; López-Coronado, Miguel; Rodrigues, Joel J P C

2012-12-01

Nowadays with the growing of the wireless connections people can access all the resources hosted in the Cloud almost everywhere. In this context, organisms can take advantage of this fact, in terms of e-Health, deploying Cloud-based solutions on e-Health services. In this paper two Cloud-based solutions for different scenarios of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) management system are proposed. We have researched articles published between the years 2005 and 2011 about the implementation of e-Health services based on the Cloud in Medline. In order to analyze the best scenario for the deployment of Cloud Computing two solutions for a large Hospital and a network of Primary Care Health centers have been studied. Economic estimation of the cost of the implementation for both scenarios has been done via the Amazon calculator tool. As a result of this analysis two solutions are suggested depending on the scenario: To deploy a Cloud solution for a large Hospital a typical Cloud solution in which are hired just the needed services has been assumed. On the other hand to work with several Primary Care Centers it's suggested the implementation of a network, which interconnects these centers with just one Cloud environment. Finally it's considered the fact of deploying a hybrid solution: in which EHRs with images will be hosted in the Hospital or Primary Care Centers and the rest of them will be migrated to the Cloud.

Immersive virtual reality-based training improves response in a simulated operating room fire scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Sankaranarayanan, Ganesh; Wooley, Lizzy; Hogg, Deborah; Dorozhkin, Denis; Olasky, Jaisa; Chauhan, Sanket; Fleshman, James W; De, Suvranu; Scott, Daniel; Jones, Daniel B

2018-01-25

SAGES FUSE curriculum provides didactic knowledge on OR fire prevention. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of an immersive virtual reality (VR)-based OR fire training simulation system in combination with FUSE didactics. The study compared a control with a simulation group. After a pre-test questionnaire that assessed the baseline knowledge, both groups were given didactic material that consists of a 10-min presentation and reading materials about precautions and stopping an OR fire from the FUSE manual. The simulation group practiced on the OR fire simulation for one session that consisted of five trials within a week from the pre-test. One week later, both groups were reassessed using a questionnaire. A week after the post-test both groups also participated in a simulated OR fire scenario while their performance was videotaped for assessment. A total of 20 subjects (ten per group) participated in this IRB approved study. Median test scores for the control group increased from 5.5 to 9.00 (p = 0.011) and for the simulation group it increased from 5.0 to 8.5 (p = 0.005). Both groups started at the same baseline (pre-test, p = 0.529) and reached similar level in cognitive knowledge (post-test, p = 0.853). However, when tested in the mock OR fire scenario, 70% of the simulation group subjects were able to perform the correct sequence of steps in extinguishing the simulated fire whereas only 20% subjects in the control group were able to do so (p = 0.003). The simulation group was better than control group in correctly identifying the oxidizer (p = 0.03) and ignition source (p = 0.014). Interactive VR-based hands-on training was found to be a relatively inexpensive and effective mode for teaching OR fire prevention and management scenarios.

Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

2017-01-01

The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

Increasing Interest in Cognitive Psychology Using Scenario-Based Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Cormack, Sophie

2014-01-01

Students often perceive cognitive psychology as an abstract and difficult subject with little intrinsic interest. When student feedback identified problems with the traditional essay assessment in a cognitive psychology module, action research led to the development of a forensic scenario-based assessment which successfully increased student…

Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

1994-01-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

Science.gov (United States)

Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

2018-02-01

In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

2009-01-01

Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as

SCENARIO-BASED eLEARNING AND STEM EDUCATION: A QUALITATIVE STUDY EXPLORING THE PERSPECTIVES OF EDUCATORS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David E. Proudfoot

2017-06-01

Full Text Available There are a variety of extra curricular activities and programs that aim to promote Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM education, but there are limited examples of extending STEM curriculum by employing scenario-based eLearning opportunities in a mobile lab learning environment. Following students participation in a first of its kind STEM Mobile Lab program that uses a scenario-based eLearning approach for instruction, twelve educators from four Title I elementary schools were asked about their perceptions of the influence of the Mobile Lab program on the STEM education of their students. The semi-structured interview protocol contained questions intended to explore participants’ perceptions regarding the influence of a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab program on the STEM interest and achievement of students. The study found that a scenario-based eLearning Mobile STEM Lab can influence STEM interest and achievement of elementary students. This promising finding leads to a recommendation for educators to use this approach and similar programs to make students more interested in science and improve their grades. Efforts by educators to design and implement scenario-based eLearning opportunities lead to increased learner engagement.

Using scenario based programming to develop embedded control software

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bettiol, F.

2015-01-01

A new paradigm to develop embedded software is waking up the interest of companies. Its name is Scenario Based Programming and it claims to be a good approach to develop embedded software. Live Sequence Charts (LSC), a visual language supporting the paradigm, enables the developers to specify a

Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

2000-02-14

The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

2012-01-01

Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

The QoS Indicators Analysis of Integrated EUHT Wireless Communication System Based on Urban Rail Transit in High-Speed Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoxuan Wang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, in urban rail transit systems, train wayside communication system uses Wireless Local Area Network (WLAN as wireless technologies to achieve safety-related information exchange between trains and wayside equipment. However, according to the high speed mobility of trains and the limitations of frequency band, WLAN is unable to meet the demands of future intracity and intercity rail transit. And although the Time Division-Long Term Evolution (TD-LTE technology has high performance compared with WLAN, only 20 MHz bandwidth can be used at most. Moreover, in high-speed scenario over 300 km/h, TD-LTE can hardly meet the future requirement as well. The equipment based on Enhanced Ultra High Throughput (EUHT technology can achieve a better performance in high-speed scenario compared with WLAN and TD-LTE. Furthermore, it allows using the frequency resource flexibly based on 5.8 GHz, such as 20 MHz, 40 MHz, and 80 MHz. In this paper, we set up an EUHT wireless communication system for urban rail transit in high-speed scenario integrated all the traffics of it. An outdoor testing environment in Beijing-Tianjin High-speed Railway is set up to measure the performance of integrated EUHT wireless communication system based on urban rail transit. The communication delay, handoff latency, and throughput of this system are analyzed. Extensive testing results show that the Quality of Service (QoS of the designed integrated EUHT wireless communication system satisfies the requirements of urban rail transit system in high-speed scenario. Moreover, compared with testing results of TD-LTE which we got before, the maximum handoff latency of safety-critical traffics can be decreased from 225 ms to 150 ms. The performance of throughput-critical traffics can achieve 2-way 2 Mbps CCTV and 1-way 8 Mbps PIS which are much better than 2-way 1 Mbps CCTV and 1-way 2 Mbps PIS in TD-LTE.

Stochastic Unit Commitment Based on Multi-Scenario Tree Method Considering Uncertainty

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Kyu-Hyung Jo

2018-03-01

Full Text Available With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, it is difficult to schedule unit commitment (UC in a power system because of the uncertainty associated with various factors. In this paper, a new solution procedure based on a multi-scenario tree method (MSTM is presented and applied to the proposed stochastic UC problem. In this process, the initial input data of load and wind power are modeled as different levels using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. The load and wind scenarios are generated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS that considers forecasting errors. These multiple scenarios are applied in the MSTM for solving the stochastic UC problem, including not only the load and wind power uncertainties, but also sudden outages of the thermal unit. When the UC problem has been formulated, the simulation is conducted for 24-h period by using the short-term UC model, and the operating costs and additional reserve requirements are thus obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approach is demonstrated through a case study based on a modified IEEE-118 bus test system.

Performance of Narrowband Signal Detection under Correlated Rayleigh Fading Based on Synthetic Array

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Broumandan

2009-01-01

design parameters of probability of detection (Pd and probability of false alarm (Pfa. An optimum detector based on Estimator-Correlator (EC is developed, and its performance is compared with that of suboptimal Equal-Gain (EG combiner in different channel correlation scenarios. It is shown that in moderate channel correlation scenarios the detection performance of EC and EG is identical. The sensitivity of the proposed method to knowledge of motion parameters is also investigated. An extensive set of measurements based on CDMA-2000 pilot signals using the static antenna and synthetic array are used to experimentally verify these theoretical findings.

Integrative Scenario Development

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Joerg A. Priess

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

ABM and GIS-based multi-scenarios volcanic evacuation modelling of Merapi

Science.gov (United States)

Jumadi, Carver, Steve; Quincey, Duncan

2016-05-01

Conducting effective evacuation is one of the successful keys to deal with such crisis. Therefore, a plan that considers the probability of the spatial extent of the hazard occurrences is needed. Likewise, the evacuation plan in Merapi is already prepared before the eruption on 2010. However, the plan could not be performed because the eruption magnitude was bigger than it was predicted. In this condition, the extent of the hazardous area was increased larger than the prepared hazard model. Managing such unpredicted situation need adequate information that flexible and adaptable to the current situation. Therefore, we applied an Agent-based Model (ABM) and Geographic Information System (GIS) using multi-scenarios hazard model to support the evacuation management. The methodology and the case study in Merapi is provided.

Modern Policyholder Preferences and Scenario-Based Projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Ninna Reitzel

This PhD thesis covers aspects of policyholder preferences and life insurance projections based on economic scenarios. Both topics are relevant to policyholders as well as to the life insurance and pension industry—and equally important, the topics give rise to a variety of interesting mathematical...... is important for designing competitive life insurance and savings products and for providing sound advice to policyholders. Preferences come in many shapes and forms. In this thesis, we focus on separation of risk and time preferences and preferences for smooth investment. The latter is modeled with something...

Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Wronna, M.; Omira, R.; Baptista, M. A.

2015-08-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines - Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING a Non-linear Shallow Water Model With Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level) and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, inundation is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, runup and inundation distance. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite of Horseshoe and Marques Pombal fault as the worst case scenario. It governs the aggregate scenario with about 60 % and inundates an area of 3.5 km2.

Ideal MHD stability and performance of ITER steady-state scenarios with ITBs

Science.gov (United States)

Poli, F. M.; Kessel, C. E.; Chance, M. S.; Jardin, S. C.; Manickam, J.

2012-06-01

Non-inductive steady-state scenarios on ITER will need to operate with internal transport barriers (ITBs) in order to reach adequate fusion gain at typical currents of 9 MA. The large pressure gradients at the location of the internal barrier are conducive to the development of ideal MHD instabilities that may limit the plasma performance and may lead to plasma disruptions. Fully non-inductive scenario simulations with five combinations of heating and current drive sources are presented in this work, with plasma currents in the range 7-10 MA. For each configuration the linear, ideal MHD stability is analysed for variations of the Greenwald fraction and of the pressure peaking factor around the operating point, aiming at defining an operational space for stable, steady-state operations at optimized performance. It is shown that plasmas with lower hybrid heating and current drive maintain the minimum safety factor above 1.5, which is desirable in steady-state operations to avoid neoclassical tearing modes. Operating with moderate ITBs at 2/3 of the minor radius, these plasmas have a minimum safety factor above 2, are ideal MHD stable and reach Q ≳ 5 operating above the ideal no-wall limit.

Scenario-based approach adopted in the ELECTRA project for deriving innovative control room functionality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marinelli, Mattia; Heussen, Kai; Prostejovsky, Alexander Maria

2017-01-01

Here, the authors analyse the operator point of view of the Web-of-Cells concept defined in the EU project ELECTRA, by identifying operator tasks into the supervision of a highly automated power system, and the information requirements to facilitate appropriate operator situation awareness...... have been identified based on the Web-of-Cells control concept. The authors considered scenarios that challenge traditional control schemes, scenarios that caused major failures (i.e. blackouts), and scenarios that can be expected to appear in the future. For each scenario, information concerning...

Scenario-based design: a method for connecting information system design with public health operations and emergency management.

Science.gov (United States)

Reeder, Blaine; Turner, Anne M

2011-12-01

Responding to public health emergencies requires rapid and accurate assessment of workforce availability under adverse and changing circumstances. However, public health information systems to support resource management during both routine and emergency operations are currently lacking. We applied scenario-based design as an approach to engage public health practitioners in the creation and validation of an information design to support routine and emergency public health activities. Using semi-structured interviews we identified the information needs and activities of senior public health managers of a large municipal health department during routine and emergency operations. Interview analysis identified 25 information needs for public health operations management. The identified information needs were used in conjunction with scenario-based design to create 25 scenarios of use and a public health manager persona. Scenarios of use and persona were validated and modified based on follow-up surveys with study participants. Scenarios were used to test and gain feedback on a pilot information system. The method of scenario-based design was applied to represent the resource management needs of senior-level public health managers under routine and disaster settings. Scenario-based design can be a useful tool for engaging public health practitioners in the design process and to validate an information system design. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rozas, Elisa Oteros; Martín-López, Berta; Daw, Tim M.

2015-01-01

Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect......, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach...... of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater...

Wireless data performance in multi-cell scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bonald, T.; Borst, S.C.; Hegde, N.; Proutière, A.

2004-01-01

The performance of wireless data systems has been extensively studied in the context of a single base station. In the present paper we investigate the flow-level performance in networks with multiple base stations. We specifically examine the complex, dynamic interaction of the number of active

Food scenarios 2025

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sundbo, Jon

2016-01-01

This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

Mind Map Our Way into Effective Student Questioning: a Principle-Based Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Stokhof, Harry; de Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

2017-07-01

Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding effective student questioning. In the scenario, mind mapping is used to provide both curricular structure as well as support for student questioning. The fidelity of structure and the process of implementation were verified by interviews, video data and a product collection. Results show that the scenario was relevant for teachers, practical in use and effective for guiding student questioning. Results also suggest that shared responsibility for classroom mind maps contributed to more intensive collective knowledge construction.

An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 1-Decision Support System.

Science.gov (United States)

Davidson, Rachel A; Nozick, Linda K; Wachtendorf, Tricia; Blanton, Brian; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randall L; DeYoung, Sarah; Dresback, Kendra M; Yi, Wenqi; Yang, Kun; Leonardo, Nicholas

2018-03-30

This article introduces a new integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework to support hurricane evacuation decision making. It explicitly captures the dynamics, uncertainty, and human-natural system interactions that are fundamental to the challenge of hurricane evacuation, but have not been fully captured in previous formal evacuation models. The hazard is represented with an ensemble of probabilistic scenarios, population behavior with a dynamic decision model, and traffic with a dynamic user equilibrium model. The components are integrated in a multistage stochastic programming model that minimizes risk and travel times to provide a tree of evacuation order recommendations and an evaluation of the risk and travel time performance for that solution. The ISE framework recommendations offer an advance in the state of the art because they: (1) are based on an integrated hazard assessment (designed to ultimately include inland flooding), (2) explicitly balance the sometimes competing objectives of minimizing risk and minimizing travel time, (3) offer a well-hedged solution that is robust under the range of ways the hurricane might evolve, and (4) leverage the substantial value of increasing information (or decreasing degree of uncertainty) over the course of a hurricane event. A case study for Hurricane Isabel (2003) in eastern North Carolina is presented to demonstrate how the framework is applied, the type of results it can provide, and how it compares to available methods of a single scenario deterministic analysis and a two-stage stochastic program. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Scenario Testing of the Energy and Environmental Performance of “The Glasgow House”

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Tim Sharpe

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the results from a 12-month study of two prototype low energy dwellings built for Glasgow Housing Association (GHA. The houses are intended for mainstream and social tenure within Glasgow and contain a range of energy reducing features including one house with a thermally heavy clay block wall and one house using a conventional timber frame and both houses have sunspaces, Mechanical Ventilation with Heat Recovery (MVHR, solar thermal system and low energy lighting. The dwellings have been subject to an innovative monitoring strategy by MEARU, whereby test occupants (students recruited from the School of Architecture have been asked to inhabit the buildings for six two-week periods using occupancy ‘scripts’ that determine their internal behaviour. The scenarios thus simulate varying patterns of occupancy in both houses simultaneously and the performance of the houses can then been compared. Indications are that although the clay block house had a poorer thermal performance, it did have other qualitative advantages, and consumption differences could be eliminated by exploiting the thermal mass. The performance of the active systems, including the MVHR system, was found to be problematic, and specific scenarios were undertaken to explore the implications of this.

Standard Establishment Through Scenarios (SETS): A new technique for occupational fitness standards.

Science.gov (United States)

Blacklock, R E; Reilly, T J; Spivock, M; Newton, P S; Olinek, S M

2015-01-01

An objective and scientific task analysis provides the basis for establishing legally defensible Physical Employment Standards (PES), based on common and essential occupational tasks. Infrequent performance of these tasks creates challenges when developing PES based on criterion, or content validity. Develop a systematic approach using Subject Matter Experts (SME) to provide tasks with 1) an occupationally relevant scenario considered common to all personnel; 2) a minimum performance standard defined by time, distance, load or work. Examples provided here relate to the development of a new PES for the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). SME of various experience are selected based on their eligibility criteria. SME are required to define a reasonable scenario for each task from personal experience, provide occupational performance requirements of the scenario in sub-groups, and discuss and agree by consensus vote on the final standard based on the definition of essential. A common and essential task for the CAF is detailed as a case example of process application. Techniques to avoid common SME rating errors are discussed and advantages to the method described. The SETS method was developed as a systematic approach to setting occupational performance standards and qualifying information from SME.

Seismic performance assessment of base-isolated safety-related nuclear structures

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Y.-N.; Whittaker, A.S.; Luco, N.

2010-01-01

Seismic or base isolation is a proven technology for reducing the effects of earthquake shaking on buildings, bridges and infrastructure. The benefit of base isolation has been presented in terms of reduced accelerations and drifts on superstructure components but never quantified in terms of either a percentage reduction in seismic loss (or percentage increase in safety) or the probability of an unacceptable performance. Herein, we quantify the benefits of base isolation in terms of increased safety (or smaller loss) by comparing the safety of a sample conventional and base-isolated nuclear power plant (NPP) located in the Eastern U.S. Scenario- and time-based assessments are performed using a new methodology. Three base isolation systems are considered, namely, (1) Friction Pendulum??? bearings, (2) lead-rubber bearings and (3) low-damping rubber bearings together with linear viscous dampers. Unacceptable performance is defined by the failure of key secondary systems because these systems represent much of the investment in a new build power plant and ensure the safe operation of the plant. For the scenario-based assessments, the probability of unacceptable performance is computed for an earthquake with a magnitude of 5.3 at a distance 7.5 km from the plant. For the time-based assessments, the annual frequency of unacceptable performance is computed considering all potential earthquakes that may occur. For both assessments, the implementation of base isolation reduces the probability of unacceptable performance by approximately four orders of magnitude for the same NPP superstructure and secondary systems. The increase in NPP construction cost associated with the installation of seismic isolators can be offset by substantially reducing the required seismic strength of secondary components and systems and potentially eliminating the need to seismically qualify many secondary components and systems. ?? 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effects of scenario-based communication training on nurses' communication competence and self-efficacy and myocardial infarction knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Hsu, Li-Ling; Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing

2014-06-01

The aim of the study was to determine the effects of a simulated communication training course on nurses' communication competence, self-efficacy, communication performance, myocardial infarction knowledge, and general satisfaction with their learning experience. A randomized controlled trial was conducted with a pre-test and two post-tests. The experimental group underwent simulated communication training course and the control group received a case-based communication training course. The experimental group made more significant improvement in competence and self-efficacy in communication from pre-test to the second post-test than the control group. Although both groups' satisfaction with their learning experience significantly increased from the first post-test to the second post-test, the experimental group was found to be more satisfied with their learning experience than the control group. No significant differences in communication performance and myocardial infarction knowledge between the two groups were identified. Scenario-based communication training can be more fully incorporated into in-service education for nurses to boost their competence and self-efficacy in communication and enhance their communication performance in myocardial infarction patient care. Introduction of real-life communication scenarios through multimedia in communication education could make learners more motivated to practice communication, hence leading to improved communication capacity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

2005-11-01

Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

Tracking Systems for Virtual Rehabilitation: Objective Performance vs. Subjective Experience. A Practical Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberto Lloréns

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Motion tracking systems are commonly used in virtual reality-based interventions to detect movements in the real world and transfer them to the virtual environment. There are different tracking solutions based on different physical principles, which mainly define their performance parameters. However, special requirements have to be considered for rehabilitation purposes. This paper studies and compares the accuracy and jitter of three tracking solutions (optical, electromagnetic, and skeleton tracking in a practical scenario and analyzes the subjective perceptions of 19 healthy subjects, 22 stroke survivors, and 14 physical therapists. The optical tracking system provided the best accuracy (1.074 ± 0.417 cm while the electromagnetic device provided the most inaccurate results (11.027 ± 2.364 cm. However, this tracking solution provided the best jitter values (0.324 ± 0.093 cm, in contrast to the skeleton tracking, which had the worst results (1.522 ± 0.858 cm. Healthy individuals and professionals preferred the skeleton tracking solution rather than the optical and electromagnetic solution (in that order. Individuals with stroke chose the optical solution over the other options. Our results show that subjective perceptions and preferences are far from being constant among different populations, thus suggesting that these considerations, together with the performance parameters, should be also taken into account when designing a rehabilitation system.

Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

2014-01-01

The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

A Problem-Based Learning Scenario That Can Be Used in Science Teacher Education

Science.gov (United States)

Sezgin Selçuk, Gamze

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to introduce a problem-based learning (PBL) scenario that elementary school science teachers in middle school (5th-8th grades) can use in their in-service training. The scenario treats the subjects of heat, temperature and thermal expansion within the scope of the 5th and 6th grade science course syllabi and has been…

Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

2014-08-01

China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

2005-01-01

The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

Scenario-based water resources planning for utilities in the Lake Victoria region

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Vishal K.; Aslam, Omar; Dale, Larry; Miller, Norman; Purkey, David R.

Urban areas in the Lake Victoria (LV) region are experiencing the highest growth rates in Africa. As efforts to meet increasing demand accelerate, integrated water resources management (IWRM) tools provide opportunities for utilities and other stakeholders to develop a planning framework comprehensive enough to include short term (e.g. landuse change), as well as longer term (e.g. climate change) scenarios. This paper presents IWRM models built using the Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) decision support system, for three towns in the LV region - Bukoba (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda), and Kisii (Kenya). Each model was calibrated under current system performance based on site visits, utility reporting and interviews. Projected water supply, demand, revenues and costs were then evaluated against a combination of climate, demographic and infrastructure scenarios up to 2050. Our results show that water supply in all three towns is currently infrastructure limited; achieving existing design capacity could meet most projected demand until 2020s in Masaka beyond which new supply and conservation strategies would be needed. In Bukoba, reducing leakages would provide little performance improvement in the short-term, but doubling capacity would meet all demands until 2050. In Kisii, major infrastructure investment is urgently needed. In Masaka, streamflow simulations show that wetland sources could satisfy all demand until 2050, but at the cost of almost no water downstream of the intake. These models demonstrate the value of IWRM tools for developing water management plans that integrate hydroclimatology-driven supply to demand projections on a single platform.

Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

Science.gov (United States)

Kecskes, Csaba

2002-05-01

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

Simulation-based Assessment to Reliably Identify Key Resident Performance Attributes.

Science.gov (United States)

Blum, Richard H; Muret-Wagstaff, Sharon L; Boulet, John R; Cooper, Jeffrey B; Petrusa, Emil R; Baker, Keith H; Davidyuk, Galina; Dearden, Jennifer L; Feinstein, David M; Jones, Stephanie B; Kimball, William R; Mitchell, John D; Nadelberg, Robert L; Wiser, Sarah H; Albrecht, Meredith A; Anastasi, Amanda K; Bose, Ruma R; Chang, Laura Y; Culley, Deborah J; Fisher, Lauren J; Grover, Meera; Klainer, Suzanne B; Kveraga, Rikante; Martel, Jeffrey P; McKenna, Shannon S; Minehart, Rebecca D; Mitchell, John D; Mountjoy, Jeremi R; Pawlowski, John B; Pilon, Robert N; Shook, Douglas C; Silver, David A; Warfield, Carol A; Zaleski, Katherine L

2018-04-01

Obtaining reliable and valid information on resident performance is critical to patient safety and training program improvement. The goals were to characterize important anesthesia resident performance gaps that are not typically evaluated, and to further validate scores from a multiscenario simulation-based assessment. Seven high-fidelity scenarios reflecting core anesthesiology skills were administered to 51 first-year residents (CA-1s) and 16 third-year residents (CA-3s) from three residency programs. Twenty trained attending anesthesiologists rated resident performances using a seven-point behaviorally anchored rating scale for five domains: (1) formulate a clear plan, (2) modify the plan under changing conditions, (3) communicate effectively, (4) identify performance improvement opportunities, and (5) recognize limits. A second rater assessed 10% of encounters. Scores and variances for each domain, each scenario, and the total were compared. Low domain ratings (1, 2) were examined in detail. Interrater agreement was 0.76; reliability of the seven-scenario assessment was r = 0.70. CA-3s had a significantly higher average total score (4.9 ± 1.1 vs. 4.6 ± 1.1, P = 0.01, effect size = 0.33). CA-3s significantly outscored CA-1s for five of seven scenarios and domains 1, 2, and 3. CA-1s had a significantly higher proportion of worrisome ratings than CA-3s (chi-square = 24.1, P < 0.01, effect size = 1.50). Ninety-eight percent of residents rated the simulations more educational than an average day in the operating room. Sensitivity of the assessment to CA-1 versus CA-3 performance differences for most scenarios and domains supports validity. No differences, by experience level, were detected for two domains associated with reflective practice. Smaller score variances for CA-3s likely reflect a training effect; however, worrisome performance scores for both CA-1s and CA-3s suggest room for improvement.

Multilingual and Multicultural Task-Based Learning Scenarios: A Pilot Study from the MAGICC Project

Science.gov (United States)

Álvarez, Inma; Pérez-Cavana, María Luisa

2015-01-01

In this article we report on the results of a pilot study on the use of task-based multilingual and multicultural professional scenarios for higher education teachers and learners at BA and MA level. The scenarios reflect new learning outcomes and assessment criteria for the presently under-conceptualised domain of communication in multilingual…

Review of Fire-Induced Multiple Spurious Operation Scenarios for a Pilot Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Kwang Hong; Lee, Jai Ho; Lee, Do Hwan [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

It was preliminarily reviewed that 41 scenarios of 63 scenarios of NEI's generic list could be applicable to design of SKN3. And 22 scenario of NEI's generic list were evaluated not applicable to SKN3. During the review of the scenario contained in NEI 00-01, no additional MSO scenarios specific to SKN3 were identified. For the further study, the final review will be determined and then detailed circuit analysis will be performed by fire zone and area based on the exact location contained the cable and raceway. With the enhancement of fire safety regulation requirements in nuclear power industry, multiple spurious operation (MSO) identification and treatments should be included in post fire safe shutdown analysis (PFSSA). In this study, the MSO scenario reviews are performed for Shin Kori Unit 3(SKN3) which is the first nuclear power plant of the Advanced Power Reactor 1400 constructed in Korea.

Stochastic congestion management in power markets using efficient scenario approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esmaili, Masoud; Amjady, Nima; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali

2010-01-01

Congestion management in electricity markets is traditionally performed using deterministic values of system parameters assuming a fixed network configuration. In this paper, a stochastic programming framework is proposed for congestion management considering the power system uncertainties comprising outage of generating units and transmission branches. The Forced Outage Rate of equipment is employed in the stochastic programming. Using the Monte Carlo simulation, possible scenarios of power system operating states are generated and a probability is assigned to each scenario. The performance of the ordinary as well as Lattice rank-1 and rank-2 Monte Carlo simulations is evaluated in the proposed congestion management framework. As a tradeoff between computation time and accuracy, scenario reduction based on the standard deviation of accepted scenarios is adopted. The stochastic congestion management solution is obtained by aggregating individual solutions of accepted scenarios. Congestion management using the proposed stochastic framework provides a more realistic solution compared with traditional deterministic solutions. Results of testing the proposed stochastic congestion management on the 24-bus reliability test system indicate the efficiency of the proposed framework.

Using Scenario-based Business Modelling to Explore the 5G Telecommunication Market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moqaddamerad, Sara; Ahokangas, Petri; Matinmikko, Marja

2017-01-01

Innovative technologies often alter established value chains and make traditional strategic planning methods inadequate. In this paper, we present the use of scenario-based business modelling to explore the market for the fifth generation mobile communication networks (5G). We discuss four...... scenarios that have been developed in a collaborative effort among different actors in the market. We then describe the approach to build business models and discuss lessons learned and benefits from the novel approach. This approach complements traditional techniques through providing a powerful platform...

Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

2015-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

Science.gov (United States)

Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

Gas allocation plans based on failures scenarios: PETROBRAS-Gas and Power Sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faertes, Denise; Vieira, Flavia; Saker, Leonardo; Heil, Luciana [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Galvao, Joao [DNV, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2009-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to present gas allocation plans developed for PETROBRAS Gas and Power Sector, considering failure to supply scenarios that could occur along gas supply network. Those scenarios, as well as the associated contingency plans, were identified and validated by an experienced team, composed by engineers and operators from different PETROBRAS sectors. The key issue of concern was the anticipation of possible undesired scenarios that could imply on contract shortfalls, the evaluation of possible maneuvers, taking into account best gas delivery allocation. Different software were used for the simulation of best gas supply allocation and for the verification of delivery pressure and conditions for final consumers. The ability of being capable of dealing with undesired or crisis scenarios, based on suitable anticipation levels, is, nowadays, a highly valuable attribute to be presented by competitive corporations, for best crisis management and prompt recovery response. Those plans are being used by Gas and Power Gas Operation Control Centre and as an input for reliability modeling of gas supply chain. (author)

Ethoprophos fate on soil-water interface and effects on non-target terrestrial and aquatic biota under Mediterranean crop-based scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Leitão, Sara; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Van den Brink, Paul J; Ribeiro, Rui; José Cerejeira, M; Sousa, José Paulo

2014-05-01

The present study aimed to assess the environmental fate of the insecticide and nematicide ethoprophos in the soil-water interface following the pesticide application in simulated maize and potato crops under Mediterranean agricultural conditions, particularly of irrigation. Focus was given to the soil-water transfer pathways (leaching and runoff), to the pesticide transport in soil between pesticide application (crop row) and non-application areas (between crop rows), as well as to toxic effects of the various matrices on terrestrial and aquatic biota. A semi-field methodology mimicking a "worst-case" ethoprophos application (twice the recommended dosage for maize and potato crops: 100% concentration v/v) in agricultural field situations was used, in order to mimic a possible misuse by the farmer under realistic conditions. A rainfall was simulated under a slope of 20° for both crop-based scenarios. Soil and water samples were collected for the analysis of pesticide residues. Ecotoxicity of soil and aquatic samples was assessed by performing lethal and sublethal bioassays with organisms from different trophic levels: the collembolan Folsomia candida, the earthworm Eisenia andrei and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. Although the majority of ethoprophos sorbed to the soil application area, pesticide concentrations were detected in all water matrices illustrating pesticide transfer pathways of water contamination between environmental compartments. Leaching to groundwater proved to be an important transfer pathway of ethoprophos under both crop-based scenarios, as it resulted in high pesticide concentration in leachates from Maize (130µgL(-1)) and Potato (630µgL(-1)) crop scenarios, respectively. Ethoprophos application at the Potato crop scenario caused more toxic effects on terrestrial and aquatic biota than at the Maize scenario at the recommended dosage and lower concentrations. In both crop-based scenarios, ethoprophos moved with the irrigation water flow to the

Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

2015-12-01

Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

Scenario Simulation-Based Assessment of Trip Difficulty for Urban Residents under Rainstorm Waterlogging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingyue Sun

2012-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, an experiment was performed to assess the trip difficulty for urban residents of different age groups walking in various depths of water, and the data were corroborated with the real urban rainstorm waterlogging scenarios in downtown (Daoli district Ha-Erbin (China. Mathematical models of urban rainstorm waterlogging were constructed using scenario simulation methods, aided by the GIS spatial analysis technology and hydrodynamic analysis of the waterway systems in the study area. Then these models were used to evaluate the impact of waterlogging on the safety of residents walking in the affected area. Results are summarized as: (1 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 10 years, three grid regions would have waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at a velocity of 1.5 m/s. Under this scenario, waterlogging would accumulate on traffic roads only in small areas, affecting the safety and mobility of residents walking in the neighborhood; (2 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 20 years, 13 grids experienced the same waterlogging situation affecting a larger area of the city; (3 for an urban rainstorm waterlogging scenario reoccurring once every 50 years, 86 grid regions were affected (waterlogging above 0.5 m moving at 1.5 m/s, and those areas would become impassable for residents.

The world in scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

1992-01-01

As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

An efficient scenario-based stochastic programming framework for multi-objective optimal micro-grid operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niknam, Taher; Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul; Narimani, Mohammad Rasoul

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Proposes a stochastic model for optimal energy management. ► Consider uncertainties related to the forecasted values for load demand. ► Consider uncertainties of forecasted values of output power of wind and photovoltaic units. ► Consider uncertainties of forecasted values of market price. ► Present an improved multi-objective teaching–learning-based optimization. -- Abstract: This paper proposes a stochastic model for optimal energy management with the goal of cost and emission minimization. In this model, the uncertainties related to the forecasted values for load demand, available output power of wind and photovoltaic units and market price are modeled by a scenario-based stochastic programming. In the presented method, scenarios are generated by a roulette wheel mechanism based on probability distribution functions of the input random variables. Through this method, the inherent stochastic nature of the proposed problem is released and the problem is decomposed into a deterministic problem. An improved multi-objective teaching–learning-based optimization is implemented to yield the best expected Pareto optimal front. In the proposed stochastic optimization method, a novel self adaptive probabilistic modification strategy is offered to improve the performance of the presented algorithm. Also, a set of non-dominated solutions are stored in a repository during the simulation process. Meanwhile, the size of the repository is controlled by usage of a fuzzy-based clustering technique. The best expected compromise solution stored in the repository is selected via the niching mechanism in a way that solutions are encouraged to seek the lesser explored regions. The proposed framework is applied in a typical grid-connected micro grid in order to verify its efficiency and feasibility.

Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

OpenAIRE

Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

2009-01-01

Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as challenging and useful, but also highlighted problems of distributed communication. The findings were used to improve the training as well as current use of the technology in the organisation. Research ...

Measuring Engagement in Later Life Activities: Rasch-Based Scenario Scales for Work, Caregiving, Informal Helping, and Volunteering

Science.gov (United States)

Ludlow, Larry H.; Matz-Costa, Christina; Johnson, Clair; Brown, Melissa; Besen, Elyssa; James, Jacquelyn B.

2014-01-01

The development of Rasch-based "comparative engagement scenarios" based on Guttman's facet theory and sentence mapping procedures is described. The scenario scales measuring engagement in work, caregiving, informal helping, and volunteering illuminate the lived experiences of role involvement among older adults and offer multiple…

A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

1992-01-01

The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

On the Beat Detection Performance in Long-Term ECG Monitoring Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francisco-Manuel Melgarejo-Meseguer

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Despite the wide literature on R-wave detection algorithms for ECG Holter recordings, the long-term monitoring applications are bringing new requirements, and it is not clear that the existing methods can be straightforwardly used in those scenarios. Our aim in this work was twofold: First, we scrutinized the scope and limitations of existing methods for Holter monitoring when moving to long-term monitoring; Second, we proposed and benchmarked a beat detection method with adequate accuracy and usefulness in long-term scenarios. A longitudinal study was made with the most widely used waveform analysis algorithms, which allowed us to tune the free parameters of the required blocks, and a transversal study analyzed how these parameters change when moving to different databases. With all the above, the extension to long-term monitoring in a database of 7-day Holter monitoring was proposed and analyzed, by using an optimized simultaneous-multilead processing. We considered both own and public databases. In this new scenario, the noise-avoid mechanisms are more important due to the amount of noise that exists in these recordings, moreover, the computational efficiency is a key parameter in order to export the algorithm to the clinical practice. The method based on a Polling function outperformed the others in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency, yielding 99.48% sensitivity, 99.54% specificity, 99.69% positive predictive value, 99.46% accuracy, and 0.85% error for MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. We conclude that the method can be used in long-term Holter monitoring systems.

Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

2014-01-01

With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be

Scenario study on the FBR deployment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

2000-12-01

This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

Innovative Educational Scenarios in Game Based Teaching and Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Smeureanu

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The didactical game can be considered part of an educational scenario in teaching and learning. This article aims to show how fundamental concepts from the economicmathematical modeling area can be visualized, how to organize knowledge in coherent scenarios, presented in an educational game manner, to gain the attention and influence students' spirit of competition. At the same time, benefitting from the 3D visualizations, the graphical interfaces for navigating in multidimensional spaces or projections are defined and thus imagination used for mental models construction is stimulated and human intuition is capitalized in the process of knowledge discovery, assisted by computer with analytic algorithms type. Exploration becomes a game feature and can be pursued both numerically and visually. 3D environments give realism to visualizations that are found in games, facilitating realimaginary relationship throughout the game and enhancing learning motivation. The innovative character of teaching is given by the method in which the teacher creates his own educational scenario by considering specific learning objectives, age particularities of students, time and space-related resources, the technical requirements of the game and the evaluation method. The paper makes several references to such projects, developed by the authors and implemented in working with students. Game based on demonstration (using simulation, modelling or visualization coordinates users to obtain relevant information; the multiple representations of knowledge are so used and compared through a multitude of examples.

GOCE gravity field simulation based on actual mission scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Pail, R.; Goiginger, H.; Mayrhofer, R.; Höck, E.; Schuh, W.-D.; Brockmann, J. M.; Krasbutter, I.; Fecher, T.; Gruber, T.

2009-04-01

In the framework of the ESA-funded project "GOCE High-level Processing Facility", an operational hardware and software system for the scientific processing (Level 1B to Level 2) of GOCE data has been set up by the European GOCE Gravity Consortium EGG-C. One key component of this software system is the processing of a spherical harmonic Earth's gravity field model and the corresponding full variance-covariance matrix from the precise GOCE orbit and calibrated and corrected satellite gravity gradiometry (SGG) data. In the framework of the time-wise approach a combination of several processing strategies for the optimum exploitation of the information content of the GOCE data has been set up: The Quick-Look Gravity Field Analysis is applied to derive a fast diagnosis of the GOCE system performance and to monitor the quality of the input data. In the Core Solver processing a rigorous high-precision solution of the very large normal equation systems is derived by applying parallel processing techniques on a PC cluster. Before the availability of real GOCE data, by means of a realistic numerical case study, which is based on the actual GOCE orbit and mission scenario and simulation data stemming from the most recent ESA end-to-end simulation, the expected GOCE gravity field performance is evaluated. Results from this simulation as well as recently developed features of the software system are presented. Additionally some aspects on data combination with complementary data sources are addressed.

Web-based hybrid-dimensional Visualization and Exploration of Cytological Localization Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kovanci Gökhan

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The CELLmicrocosmos 4.2 PathwayIntegration (CmPI is a tool which provides hybriddimensional visualization and analysis of intracellular protein and gene localizations in the context of a virtual 3D environment. This tool is developed based on Java/Java3D/JOGL and provides a standalone application compatible to all relevant operating systems. However, it requires Java and the local installation of the software. Here we present the prototype of an alternative web-based visualization approach, using Three.js and D3.js. In this way it is possible to visualize and explore CmPI-generated localization scenarios including networks mapped to 3D cell components by just providing a URL to a collaboration partner. This publication describes the integration of the different technologies - Three.js, D3.js and PHP - as well as an application case: a localization scenario of the citrate cycle. The CmPI web viewer is available at: http://CmPIweb.CELLmicrocosmos.org.

Development of exploratory approach for scenario analysis in the performance assessment of geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makino, Hitoshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu; Grindrod, Peter

1998-01-01

It becomes difficult to apply the ordinary method for scenario analysis as number of the processes and complexity in their interrelations are increased. For this problem, an exploratory approach, that can perform scenario analysis on wider range of problems, was developed. The approach includes ensemble runs of a mass transport model, that was developed as a generic and flexible model and can cover effects of various processes on the mass transport, and analysis of sensitivity structure among the input and output space of the ensemble runs. The technique of clustering and principal component analysis were applied in the approach. As the result of its test application, applicability of the approach was confirmed to identify important processes from number of the processes in the systematic and objective manner. (author)

Preventive health services implemented by family physicians in Portugal—a cross-sectional study based on two clinical scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Carlos; Azevedo, Luís Filipe; Santos, Cristina; Sá, Luísa; Santos, Paulo; Couto, Maria; Pereira, Altamiro; Hespanhol, Alberto

2014-01-01

Objectives To assess whether Portuguese family physicians perform preventive health services in accordance with scientific evidence, based on the recommendations of the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF). Design Cross-sectional study. Setting Primary healthcare, Portuguese National Health Service. Participants 255 Portuguese family physicians selected by a stratified cluster sampling design were invited to participate in a computer-assisted telephone survey. Outcomes Prevalence of compliance with USPSTF recommendations for screening, given a male and female clinical scenario and a set of proposed medical interventions, including frequency of the intervention and performance in their own daily practice. Results A response rate of 95.7% was obtained (n=244). 98–100% of family physicians answered according to the USPSTF recommendations in most interventions. In the male scenario, the lowest concordance was observed in the evaluation of prostate-specific antigen with 37% of family physicians answering according to the USPSTF recommendations. In the female scenario, the lowest concordance was for cholesterol testing with 2% of family physicians complying. Family physicians younger than 50 years had significantly better compliance scores than older ones (mean 77% vs 72%; p<0.001). Conclusions We found a high degree of agreement with USPSTF recommendations among Portuguese family physicians. However, we also found results suggesting excessive use of some medical interventions, raising concerns related to possible harm associated with overdiagnosis and overtreatment. PMID:24861550

Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

2007-01-01

Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, In Hyo [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Son, Han Seong [Joongbu Univ., Geumsan (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Si Won [Korea Institute of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Control, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Hyun Gook [Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy (United States)

2016-10-15

Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system.

A Proposal for a Methodology to Develop a Cyber-Attack Penetration Test Scenario Including NPPs Safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, In Hyo; Son, Han Seong; Kim, Si Won; Kang, Hyun Gook

2016-01-01

Penetration test is a method to evaluate the cyber security of NPPs; so, this approach was performed in some studies. Because they focused on vulnerability finding or test bed construction, scenario based approach was not performed. However, to test the cyber security of NPPs, a proper test scenario should be needed. Ahn et al. developed cyber-attack scenarios but those scenarios couldn't be applied in penetration test because they developed the scenarios based on past incidents of NPPs induced by cyber-attack. That is, those scenarios only covered scenarios which were happened before; so, they couldn't cover other various scenarios and couldn't reflect them into a penetration test. In this study, a method to develop a cyber-attack penetration test scenario of NPPs especially focused on safety point of view is suggested. To evaluate the cyber security of NPPs, penetration test can be a possible way. In this study, a method to develop a penetration test scenario was explained. Especially, the goal of hacker was focused on nuclear fuel integrity deterioration. So, in the methodology, Level 1 PSA results were utilized to reflect plant safety into the security. From the PSA results, basic event was post processed and possible cyber-attacks were reviewed with vulnerabilities of digital control system

Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

2013-01-01

the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

Improving UWB-Based Localization in IoT Scenarios with Statistical Models of Distance Error.

Science.gov (United States)

Monica, Stefania; Ferrari, Gianluigi

2018-05-17

Interest in the Internet of Things (IoT) is rapidly increasing, as the number of connected devices is exponentially growing. One of the application scenarios envisaged for IoT technologies involves indoor localization and context awareness. In this paper, we focus on a localization approach that relies on a particular type of communication technology, namely Ultra Wide Band (UWB). UWB technology is an attractive choice for indoor localization, owing to its high accuracy. Since localization algorithms typically rely on estimated inter-node distances, the goal of this paper is to evaluate the improvement brought by a simple (linear) statistical model of the distance error. On the basis of an extensive experimental measurement campaign, we propose a general analytical framework, based on a Least Square (LS) method, to derive a novel statistical model for the range estimation error between a pair of UWB nodes. The proposed statistical model is then applied to improve the performance of a few illustrative localization algorithms in various realistic scenarios. The obtained experimental results show that the use of the proposed statistical model improves the accuracy of the considered localization algorithms with a reduction of the localization error up to 66%.

Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dodoo, Ambrose; Gustavsson, Leif

2016-01-01

In this study, the extent to which different climate scenarios influence overheating risk, energy use and peak loads for space conditioning of district heated multi-storey buildings in Sweden are explored. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different overheating control measures and the implications of different electricity supply options for space cooling and ventilation are investigated. The analysis is based on buildings with different architectural and energy efficiency configurations including a prefab concrete-frame, a massive timber-frame and a light timber-frame building. Thermal performance of the buildings under low and high Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios for 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 are analysed and compared to that under historical climate of 1961–1990 and recent climate of 1996–2005. The study is based on a bottom-up methodology and includes detailed hour-by-hour energy balance and systems analyses. The results show significant changes in the buildings’ thermal performance under the future climate scenarios, relative to the historical and recent climates. Heating demand decreased significantly while cooling demand and overheating risk increased considerably with the future climate scenarios, for all buildings. In contrast to the cooling demand, the relative changes in heating demand of the buildings under the future climate scenarios are somewhat similar. The changes in the space conditioning demands and overheating risk vary for the buildings. Overheating risk was found to be slightly higher for the massive-frame building and slightly lower for the light-frame building. - Highlights: • We analysed thermal performance of buildings under different climate scenarios. • Our analysis is based on historical, recent and projected future climate datasets. • The buildings' thermal performance changed notably under future climate scenarios. • The extent of the changes is influenced by the buildings' energy efficiency

Teaching childbirth with high-fidelity simulation. Is it better observing the scenario during the briefing session?

Science.gov (United States)

Cuerva, Marcos J; Piñel, Carlos S; Martin, Lourdes; Espinosa, Jose A; Corral, Octavio J; Mendoza, Nicolás

2018-02-12

The design of optimal courses for obstetric undergraduate teaching is a relevant question. This study evaluates two different designs of simulator-based learning activity on childbirth with regard to respect to the patient, obstetric manoeuvres, interpretation of cardiotocography tracings (CTG) and infection prevention. This randomised experimental study which differs in the content of their briefing sessions consisted of two groups of undergraduate students, who performed two simulator-based learning activities on childbirth. The first briefing session included the observations of a properly performed scenario according to Spanish clinical practice guidelines on care in normal childbirth by the teachers whereas the second group did not include the observations of a properly performed scenario, and the students observed it only after the simulation process. The group that observed a properly performed scenario after the simulation obtained worse grades during the simulation, but better grades during the debriefing and evaluation. Simulator use in childbirth may be more fruitful when the medical students observe correct performance at the completion of the scenario compared to that at the start of the scenario. Impact statement What is already known on this subject? There is a scarcity of literature about the design of optimal high-fidelity simulation training in childbirth. It is known that preparing simulator-based learning activities is a complex process. Simulator-based learning includes the following steps: briefing, simulation, debriefing and evaluation. The most important part of high-fidelity simulations is the debriefing. A good briefing and simulation are of high relevance in order to have a fruitful debriefing session. What do the results of this study add? Our study describes a full simulator-based learning activity on childbirth that can be reproduced in similar facilities. The findings of this study add that high-fidelity simulation training in

Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

2011-01-01

A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

Base Station Antenna Pattern Distortion in Practical Urban Deployment Scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

2014-01-01

In real urban deployments, base station antennas are typically not placed in free space conditions. Therefore, the radiation pattern can be affected by mounting structures and nearby obstacles located in the proximity of the antenna (near-field), which are often not taken into consideration. Also...... presents a combination of near-field and far-field simulations aimed to provide an overview of the distortion experienced by the base station antenna pattern in two different urban deployment scenarios: rooftop and telecommunications tower. The study illustrates how, in comparison with the near...

European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

2011-01-01

In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

Desirability and feasibility of sustainable urban transport systems. An expert-based strategic scenario approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nijkamp, P.; Ouwersloot, H.; Rienstra, S.A. [Department of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

1995-09-01

Current trends in transport indicate that the system is moving away from sustainability and that major changes are necessary to make the transport system more compatible with environmental sustainability. Main problems may occur in urban transport, where not many promising solutions are expected, while the problems are severe. In view of the great number of uncertainties, we will in our paper resort to scenarios. In the paper, expert scenarios, which lead to a sustainable transport system are constructed by applying the recently developed `Spider model`. Based on a set of distinct characteristics, leading to eight axes in the spatial, institutional, economic and social-psychological field, an evaluation framework is constructed, which visualizes the driving forces that largely influence the future of the transport system. Next, expected and desired scenarios are constructed by means of opinions of Dutch transport experts - both average scenarios and scenarios of segments of the respondents - which have been investigated by means of a survey. The expected scenarios indicate that many current trends will continue, while the transport system is largely the same as the current one. The desired scenarios on the other hand, suggest the emergence and the need for a more collective system, in which also many new modes are operating. In the paper the resulting urban transport systems are also discussed. By calculating the CO2 emissions in the average expected and desired scenario, it appears that the expected scenario does not lead to a large scale reduction of those emissions; the desired scenario however, may lead to a large scale reduction of the emissions. The conclusion is that the differences in expert opinion are small and that the road towards a sustainable (urban) transport system is still far away, although the compact city concept may perhaps offer some solution. 6 figs., 2 tabs., 18 refs.

Event-based scenario manager for multibody dynamics simulation of heavy load lifting operations in shipyards

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sol Ha

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper suggests an event-based scenario manager capable of creating and editing a scenario for shipbuilding process simulation based on multibody dynamics. To configure various situation in shipyards and easily connect with multibody dynamics, the proposed method has two main concepts: an Actor and an Action List. The Actor represents the anatomic unit of action in the multibody dynamics and can be connected to a specific component of the dynamics kernel such as the body and joint. The user can make a scenario up by combining the actors. The Action List contains information for arranging and executing the actors. Since the shipbuilding process is a kind of event-based sequence, all simulation models were configured using Discrete EVent System Specification (DEVS formalism. The proposed method was applied to simulations of various operations in shipyards such as lifting and erection of a block and heavy load lifting operation using multiple cranes.

Radiation dose evaluation based on exposure scenario during the operation of radioactive waste disposal facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Jeong Hyoun; Kim Chang Lak; Choi, Heui Joo; Park, Joo Wan

1999-01-01

Radiation dose to worker in disposal facility was calculated by using point kernel MICROSHIELD V5.02 computer code based on exposure scenarios. An conceptual design model for disposal vaults in disposal facility was used for object of shielding calculation model. Selected radionuclides and their activities among radioactive wastes from nuclear power plants were assumed as radiation sources for the exposure calculation. Annual radiation doses to crane workers and to people working on disposal vaults were calculated according to exposure time and distance from the sources with conservative operation scenarios. The scenarios used for this study were based on assumption for representing disposal activities in a future Korean near surface disposal facility. Calculated exposure rates to worker during normal disposal work were very low comparing with annual allowable limit for radiation worker

Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

2018-01-01

According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Crew Situation Awareness, Diagnoses, and Performance in Simulated Nuclear Power Plant Process Disturbances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sebok, Angelia; Kaarstad, Magnhild

1998-01-01

Research was conducted at the OECD Halden Reactor Project to identify issues in crew performance in complex simulated nuclear power plant scenarios. Eight crews of operators participated in five scenarios, administered over a two or three-day period. Scenarios required either rule-based or knowledge-based problem solving. Several performance parameters were collected, including Situation Awareness (SA), objective performance, rated crew performance, and crew diagnoses. The purpose of this study was to investigate differences in performance measures in knowledge-based and rule-based scenarios. Preliminary data analysis revealed a significant difference in crew SA between the two scenario types: crews in the rule-based scenarios had significantly higher SA then crews in the knowledge-based scenarios. Further investigations were initiated to determine if crews performed differently, in terms of objective performance, rated crew performance, and diagnoses, between the scenario types. Correlations between the various crew performance measurements were calculated to reveal insights into the nature of SA, performance, and diagnoses. The insights into crew performance can be used to design more effective interfaces and operator performance aids, thus contributing to enhanced crew performance and improved plant safety. (authors)

Scenario-based fitted Q-iteration for adaptive control of water reservoir systems under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Bertoni, Federica; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2017-04-01

Over recent years, mathematical models have largely been used to support planning and management of water resources systems. Yet, the increasing uncertainties in their inputs - due to increased variability in the hydrological regimes - are a major challenge to the optimal operations of these systems. Such uncertainty, boosted by projected changing climate, violates the stationarity principle generally used for describing hydro-meteorological processes, which assumes time persisting statistical characteristics of a given variable as inferred by historical data. As this principle is unlikely to be valid in the future, the probability density function used for modeling stochastic disturbances (e.g., inflows) becomes an additional uncertain parameter of the problem, which can be described in a deterministic and set-membership based fashion. This study contributes a novel method for designing optimal, adaptive policies for controlling water reservoir systems under climate-related uncertainty. The proposed method, called scenario-based Fitted Q-Iteration (sFQI), extends the original Fitted Q-Iteration algorithm by enlarging the state space to include the space of the uncertain system's parameters (i.e., the uncertain climate scenarios). As a result, sFQI embeds the set-membership uncertainty of the future inflow scenarios in the action-value function and is able to approximate, with a single learning process, the optimal control policy associated to any scenario included in the uncertainty set. The method is demonstrated on a synthetic water system, consisting of a regulated lake operated for ensuring reliable water supply to downstream users. Numerical results show that the sFQI algorithm successfully identifies adaptive solutions to operate the system under different inflow scenarios, which outperform the control policy designed under historical conditions. Moreover, the sFQI policy generalizes over inflow scenarios not directly experienced during the policy design

MANET Performance for Source and Destination Moving Scenarios Considering OLSR and AODV protocols

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elis Kulla

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Recently, a great interest is shown in MANETs potential usage and applications in several fields such as military activities, rescue operations and time-critical applications. In this work, we implement and analyse a MANET testbed considering AODV and OLSR protocols for wireless multi-hop networking. We investigate the effect of mobility and topology changing in MANET and evaluate the performance of the network through experiments in a real environment. The performance assessment of our testbed is done considering throughput, number of dropped packets and delay. We designed four scenarios: Static, Source Moving, Destination Moving and Source-Destination Moving. From our experimental results, we concluded that when the communicating nodes are moving and the routes change quickly, OLSR (as a proactive protocol performs better than AODV, which is a reactive protocol.

Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

2000-01-01

Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

2014-01-01

TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-07-16

This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

Method-Based Higher Education in Sustainability: The Potential of the Scenario Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard Beecroft

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Both sustainability and education are challenging process-oriented objectives. When the aim is to combine both notions, as in Higher Education in Sustainability (HES, it is indispensable to first establish a common ground between them. In this paper, we characterise this common ground in terms of four aspects: future orientation, normativity, global perspective, and theory engaged in practice. Based on an analysis of the common ground, one method that is well-established in a wide range of sustainability sciences shows high potential for use in HES because it covers all four aspects in detail: the scenario method. We argue that a didactical reconstruction of the scenario method is necessary to utilise its potential and develop adequate forms of teaching in higher education. The scenario method is used to construct and analyse a set of alternative future developments to support decisions that have to be made in the present. Didactical reconstruction reveals a spectrum of objectives for which the scenario method can be employed: (1 projection; (2 teleological planning and (3 an explorative search for possibilities not yet considered. By studying and experimenting with this spectrum of objectives, students in HES can develop fundamental reflexive competencies in addressing the future in different ways that are relevant for both sustainability and education.

Realism in paediatric emergency simulations: A prospective comparison of in situ, low fidelity and centre-based, high fidelity scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Leary, Fenton; Pegiazoglou, Ioannis; McGarvey, Kathryn; Novakov, Ruza; Wolfsberger, Ingrid; Peat, Jennifer

2018-02-01

To measure scenario participant and faculty self-reported realism, engagement and learning for the low fidelity, in situ simulations and compare this to high fidelity, centre-based simulations. A prospective survey of scenario participants and faculty completing in situ and centre-based paediatric simulations. There were 382 responses, 276 from scenario participants and 106 from faculty with 241 responses from in situ and 141 from centre-based simulations. Scenario participant responses showed significantly higher ratings for the centre-based simulations for respiratory rate (P = 0.007), pulse (P = 0.036), breath sounds (P = 0.002), heart sounds (P realism for engagement and learning. © 2017 The Authors Emergency Medicine Australasia published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

From scenarios to components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fahland, D.

2010-01-01

Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

Mind map our way into effective student questioning: A principle-based scenario

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stokhof, Harry; De Vries, Bregje; Bastiaens, Theo; Martens, Rob

2017-01-01

Student questioning is an important self-regulative strategy and has multiple benefits for teaching and learning science. Teachers, however, need support to align student questioning to curricular goals. This study tests a prototype of a principle-based scenario that supports teachers in guiding

The effectiveness of a simulated scenario to teach nursing students how to perform a bed bath: A randomized clinical trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda, Renata Pinto Ribeiro; de Cássia Lopes Chaves, Érika; Silva Lima, Rogério; Braga, Cristiane Giffoni; Simões, Ivandira Anselmo Ribeiro; Fava, Silvana Maria Coelho Leite; Iunes, Denise Hollanda

2017-10-01

Simulation allows students to develop several skills during a bed bath that are difficult to teach only in traditional classroom lectures, such as problem-solving, student interactions with the simulator (patient), reasoning in clinical evaluations, evaluation of responses to interventions, teamwork, communication, security and privacy. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a simulated bed bath scenario on improving cognitive knowledge, practical performance and satisfaction among nursing students. Randomized controlled clinical trial. Nursing students that were in the fifth period from two educational institutions in Brazil. Nursing students (n=58). The data were collected using the assessments of cognitive knowledge, practical performance and satisfaction were made through a written test about bed baths, an Objective Structured Clinical Examination (OSCE) and a satisfaction questionnaire. We identified that the acquisition and assimilation of cognitive knowledge was significantly higher in the simulation group (p=0.001). The performance was similar in both groups regardless of the teaching strategy (p=0.435). At follow-up, the simulation group had significantly more satisfaction with the teaching method than the control group (p=0.007). The teaching strategy based on a simulated scenario of a bed bath proved to be effective for the acquisition of cognitive knowledge regarding bed baths in clinical practice and improved student satisfaction with the teaching process. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of ITER 15 MA ELMy H-mode Inductive Scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

C. E. Kessel, D. Campbell, Y. Gribov, G. Saibene, G. Ambrosino, T. Casper, M. Cavinato, H. Fujieda, R. Hawryluk, L. D. Horton, A. Kavin, R. Kharyrutdinov, F. Koechl, J. Leuer, A. Loarte, P. J. Lomas, T. Luce, V. Lukash, M. Mattei, I.Nunes, V. Parail, A. Polevoi, A. Portone, R. Sartori, A.C.C. Sips, P. R. Thomas, A. Welander and J. Wesley

2008-01-01

The poloidal field (PF) coil system on ITER, which provides both feedforward and feedback control of plasma position, shape, and current, is a critical element for achieving mission performance. Analysis of PF capabilities has focused on the 15 MA Q = 10 scenario with a 300-500 s flattop burn phase. The operating space available for the 15 MA ELMy H-mode plasma discharges in ITER and upgrades to the PF coils or associated systems to establish confidence that ITER mission objectives can be reached have been identified. Time dependent self-consistent free-boundary calculations were performed to examine the impact of plasma variability, discharge programming, and plasma disturbances. Based on these calculations a new reference scenario was developed based upon a large bore initial plasma, early divertor transition, low level heating in L-mode, and a late H-mode onset. Equilibrium analyses for this scenario indicate that the original PF coil limitations do not allow low li (<0.8) operation or lower flux states, and the flattop burn durations were predicted to be less than the desired 400 s. This finding motivates the expansion of the operating space, considering several upgrade options to the PF coils. Analysis was also carried out to examine the feedback current reserve required in the CS and PF coils during a series of disturbances and a feasibility assessment of the 17 MA scenario was undertaken. Results of the studies show that the new scenario and modified PF system will allow a wide range of 15 MA 300-500 s operation and more limited but finite 17 MA operation

A lifestyle-based scenario for US buildings: implications for energy use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diamond, Rick

2003-01-01

Can lifestyle-based scenarios provide insight into the nature of energy use in our future buildings? Participants in a design charrette brainstormed ideas about the future of US homes and workplaces. The teams started from several descriptions of daily lifestyles, and developed specific building characteristics as the place settings for these narratives. In addition to characterizing the physical environment, the teams also identified the forces that would be influential in making these changes. Further reflection was made on the possible unintended consequences of these changes. The energy implications of these changes were characterized with respect to magnitude and direction. While acknowledging the speculative nature of the exercise, the rationale was to broaden the discussion on future energy use by looking at future scenarios in the context of everyday life

FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

2008-01-01

In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

Assessing the Formation of Experience-Based Gender Expectations in an Implicit Learning Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anton Öttl

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The present study investigates the formation of new word-referent associations in an implicit learning scenario, using a gender-coded artificial language with spoken words and visual referents. Previous research has shown that when participants are explicitly instructed about the gender-coding system underlying an artificial lexicon, they monitor the frequency of exposure to male vs. female referents within this lexicon, and subsequently use this probabilistic information to predict the gender of an upcoming referent. In an explicit learning scenario, the auditory and visual gender cues are necessarily highlighted prior to acqusition, and the effects previously observed may therefore depend on participants' overt awareness of these cues. To assess whether the formation of experience-based expectations is dependent on explicit awareness of the underlying coding system, we present data from an experiment in which gender-coding was acquired implicitly, thereby reducing the likelihood that visual and auditory gender cues are used strategically during acquisition. Results show that even if the gender coding system was not perfectly mastered (as reflected in the number of gender coding errors, participants develop frequency based expectations comparable to those previously observed in an explicit learning scenario. In line with previous findings, participants are quicker at recognizing a referent whose gender is consistent with an induced expectation than one whose gender is inconsistent with an induced expectation. At the same time however, eyetracking data suggest that these expectations may surface earlier in an implicit learning scenario. These findings suggest that experience-based expectations are robust against manner of acquisition, and contribute to understanding why similar expectations observed in the activation of stereotypes during the processing of natural language stimuli are difficult or impossible to suppress.

[Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

2015-08-01

Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

A structured process to develop scenarios for use in evaluation of an evidence-based approach in clinical decision making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manns PJ

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Patricia J Manns, Johanna DarrahDepartment of Physical Therapy, Faculty of Rehabilitation Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, CanadaBackground and purpose: Scenarios are used as the basis from which to evaluate the use of the components of evidence-based practice in decision making, yet there are few examples of a standardized process of scenario writing. The aim of this paper is to describe a step-by-step scenario writing method used in the context of the authors’ curriculum research study.Methods: Scenario writing teams included one physical therapy clinician and one academic staff member. There were four steps in the scenario development process: (1 identify prevalent condition and brainstorm interventions; (2 literature search; (3 develop scenario framework; and (4 write scenario.Results: Scenarios focused only on interventions, not diagnostic or prognostic problems. The process led to two types of scenarios – ones that provided an intervention with strong research evidence and others where the intervention had weak evidence to support its use. The end product of the process was a scenario that incorporates aspects of evidence-based decision making and can be used as the basis for evaluation.Conclusion: The use of scenarios has been very helpful to capture therapists’ reasoning processes. The scenario development process was applied in an education context as part of a final evaluation of graduating clinical physical therapy students.Keywords: physical therapists, clinical decision making, evaluation, curriculum

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

Science.gov (United States)

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transparent Gap Filler Solution over a DVB-RCS2 Satellite Platform in a Railway Scenario: Performance Evaluation Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peppino Fazio

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In this work, a performance study of a system equipped with a transparent Gap Filler solution in a DVB-RCS2 satellite platform has been provided. In particular, a simulation model based on a 3-state Markov chain, overcoming the blockage status through the introduction of a transparent Gap Filler (using devices on both tunnel sides has been implemented. The handover time, due to switching mechanism between satellite and Gap Filler, has been taken into account. As reference scenario, the railway market has been considered, which is characterized by a N-LOS condition, due to service disruptions caused by tunnels, vegetation and buildings. The system performance, in terms of end-to-end delay, queue size and packet loss percentage, have been evaluated, in order to prove the goodness of communications in a real railroad path.

Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P.

2011-02-01

SKB have identified buffer erosion as a process that could potentially lead to increased corrosion of the copper canister. Buffer erosion can be caused by: the formation of bentonite (i.e., montmorillonite) colloids and their transport away from deposition holes in intersecting fractures containing dilute groundwaters (such as subglacial meltwaters); steep hydraulic gradients during buffer resaturation; or shearing of solid bentonite particles by rapidly flowing groundwater. Only colloidal removal of bentonite (the first of the processes listed) is considered in this study. The erosion of the bentonite leads to a reduction in density and swelling potential, and hence a lowering of transport resistances in the buffer that can make it easier for corrosive agents to transported to be the canister surface, resulting in increased levels of corrosion of the canister surface compared with those predicted in 'normal evolution' conditions. The reduction in bentonite density that follows as a consequence of erosion also leads to the possibility of breaching other safety functions of the buffer, for example prevention of canister sinking and resistance to shear deformation. These are not considered in this study. This report describes the modelling of copper corrosion processes in the SKB KBS-3 design concept. The modelling includes an initial representation of all relevant physical processes, but with some processes represented in more detail than others. This allows investigation of the impacts of the processes that are modelled on canister corrosion, allowing identification of the processes that impact most on the key performance measures for the EBS, which will help to focus modelling developments in future work. This work could be taken as the starting point in a longer-term modelling study in which the interactions between processes that affect canister corrosion are further investigated. Two high-level scenarios are considered in this work: a base case scenario in

Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P. (Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

2011-02-15

SKB have identified buffer erosion as a process that could potentially lead to increased corrosion of the copper canister. Buffer erosion can be caused by: the formation of bentonite (i.e., montmorillonite) colloids and their transport away from deposition holes in intersecting fractures containing dilute groundwaters (such as subglacial meltwaters); steep hydraulic gradients during buffer resaturation; or shearing of solid bentonite particles by rapidly flowing groundwater. Only colloidal removal of bentonite (the first of the processes listed) is considered in this study. The erosion of the bentonite leads to a reduction in density and swelling potential, and hence a lowering of transport resistances in the buffer that can make it easier for corrosive agents to transported to be the canister surface, resulting in increased levels of corrosion of the canister surface compared with those predicted in 'normal evolution' conditions. The reduction in bentonite density that follows as a consequence of erosion also leads to the possibility of breaching other safety functions of the buffer, for example prevention of canister sinking and resistance to shear deformation. These are not considered in this study. This report describes the modelling of copper corrosion processes in the SKB KBS-3 design concept. The modelling includes an initial representation of all relevant physical processes, but with some processes represented in more detail than others. This allows investigation of the impacts of the processes that are modelled on canister corrosion, allowing identification of the processes that impact most on the key performance measures for the EBS, which will help to focus modelling developments in future work. This work could be taken as the starting point in a longer-term modelling study in which the interactions between processes that affect canister corrosion are further investigated. Two high-level scenarios are considered in this work: a base case

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

Two-stage robust UC including a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Álvarez-Miranda, Eduardo; Campos-Valdés, Camilo; Rahmann, Claudia

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Methodological framework for obtaining Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies. • Wind-power forecast using a revisited bootstrap predictive inference approach. • Novel scenario-based model for wind-power uncertainty. • Efficient modeling framework for obtaining nearly optimal UC policies in reasonable time. • Effective incorporation of wind-power uncertainty in the UC modeling. - Abstract: The complex processes involved in the determination of the availability of power from renewable energy sources, such as wind power, impose great challenges in the forecasting processes carried out by transmission system operators (TSOs). Nowadays, many of these TSOs use operation planning tools that take into account the uncertainty of the wind-power. However, most of these methods typically require strict assumptions about the probabilistic behavior of the forecast error, and usually ignore the dynamic nature of the forecasting process. In this paper a methodological framework to obtain Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies is presented; such methodology considers a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications. The proposed method is composed by three main phases. The first two phases generate a sound wind-power forecast using a bootstrap predictive inference approach. The third phase corresponds to modeling and solving a one-day ahead Robust UC considering the output of the first phase. The performance of proposed approach is evaluated using as case study a new wind farm to be incorporated into the Northern Interconnected System (NIS) of Chile. A projection of wind-based power installation, as well as different characteristic of the uncertain data, are considered in this study

The variation of health effects based on the scenarios considering release parameters and meteorological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jong Tae; Ha, Jae Joo

2000-01-01

The variation of health effects resulting from the severe accidents of the YGN 3 and 4 nuclear power plants was examined based on scenarios considering the release parameters and meteorological data. The release parameters and meteorological data considered in making basic scenarios are release height, heat content, release time, warning time, wind speed, rainfall rate, and atmospheric stability class. The seasonal scenarios were also made in order to estimate the seasonal variation of health effects by considering seasonal characteristics of Korea. According to the results, there are large differences in consequence analysis from scenario to although an equal amount of radioactive materials is released to the atmosphere. Also, there are large differences in health effects from season to season due to distinct seasonal characteristics of Korea. Therefore, it is necessary to consider seasonal characteristics in developing optimum emergency response strategies

Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jed O. Kaplan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1 in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS. Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation, we compare modeled land use with the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.

Performance Analysis of Scheduling Schemes for Femto to Macro Interference Coordination in LTE-Femtocell Deployment Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafina Destiarti Ainul

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Deploying femtocells that have low power level in LTE with small coverage area is an alternative solution for mobile operators to improve indoors network coverage area as well as system capacity. However deploying femtocells (HeNB that were used co-channel frequency, can be brought about interference problem to the Macro BTS (eNB. Close Subscriber Group (CSG of HeNB allows only User equipment (UE to access HeNB. HeNB is the source of interference for UE who cannot access it. Therefore it is necessary for interference coordination methods among the HeNB and eNB. The methods are ICIC (Intercell Interference Coordination and eICIC (enhanced Intercell Interference Coordination.  This paper proposed performance analysis of scheduling schemes for Femto to macro interference coordination that allocated resource in the frequency and time domain using LTE-Femtocell suburban and urban deployment scenario. Simulation result using ICIC methods can improve SINR performance 15.77 % in urban and 28.66 % in suburban, throughput performance 10.11 % in urban and 21.05 % in suburban. eICIC methods can improve SINR performance 17.44 % in urban and 31.14 % in suburban, throughput performance 19.83% in urban and 44.39 % in suburban.The result prove using eICIC method in time domain resource have better performance than using ICIC method in frequency resource. However using eICIC method in suburban deployment scenariocan increase the performance of SINR and throughput more effective than using eICIC method in urban deployment scenario.

Ontology-based indirect interaction of mobile robots for joint task solving: a scenario for obstacle overcoming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petrov Mikhail

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper describes an ontology-based approach to interaction of users and mobile robots for joint task solving. The use of ontologies allows supporting semantic interoperability between robots. The ontologies store knowledge about the tasks to be performed, knowledge about the functionality of robots and the current situation factors like a robot location or busyness. Ontologies are published in a smart space which allows indirect interaction between participants. On the basis of the knowledge, a robot can define a task that is to be performed and get the current status of other robots. The paper presents a reference model of the approach to indirect interaction between mobile robots for joint task solving, an ontology model for the knowledge organization, and application of the presented approach for the scenario for obstacle overcoming.

Comparison of Sigma-Point and Extended Kalman Filters on a Realistic Orbit Determination Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Gaebler, John; Hur-Diaz. Sun; Carpenter, Russell

2010-01-01

Sigma-point filters have received a lot of attention in recent years as a better alternative to extended Kalman filters for highly nonlinear problems. In this paper, we compare the performance of the additive divided difference sigma-point filter to the extended Kalman filter when applied to orbit determination of a realistic operational scenario based on the Interstellar Boundary Explorer mission. For the scenario studied, both filters provided equivalent results. The performance of each is discussed in detail.

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

2015-01-01

Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

Scenario based approach to structural damage detection and its value in a risk and reliability perspective

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hovgaard, Mads Knude; Hansen, Jannick Balleby; Brincker, Rune

2013-01-01

A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage mecha......- and without monitoring. Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is used to estimate the probabilities and the tower of an onshore NREL 5MW wind turbine is given as a calculation case......A scenario- and vibration based structural damage detection method is demonstrated though simulation. The method is Finite Element (FE) based. The value of the monitoring is calculated using structural reliability theory. A high cycle fatigue crack propagation model is assumed as the damage...

The negaWatt 2011 scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-03-01

This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

Improved Clinical Performance and Teamwork of Pediatric Interprofessional Resuscitation Teams With a Simulation-Based Educational Intervention.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilfoyle, Elaine; Koot, Deanna A; Annear, John C; Bhanji, Farhan; Cheng, Adam; Duff, Jonathan P; Grant, Vincent J; St George-Hyslop, Cecilia E; Delaloye, Nicole J; Kotsakis, Afrothite; McCoy, Carolyn D; Ramsay, Christa E; Weiss, Matthew J; Gottesman, Ronald D

2017-02-01

To measure the effect of a 1-day team training course for pediatric interprofessional resuscitation team members on adherence to Pediatric Advanced Life Support guidelines, team efficiency, and teamwork in a simulated clinical environment. Multicenter prospective interventional study. Four tertiary-care children's hospitals in Canada from June 2011 to January 2015. Interprofessional pediatric resuscitation teams including resident physicians, ICU nurse practitioners, registered nurses, and registered respiratory therapists (n = 300; 51 teams). A 1-day simulation-based team training course was delivered, involving an interactive lecture, group discussions, and four simulated resuscitation scenarios, each followed by a debriefing. The first scenario of the day (PRE) was conducted prior to any team training. The final scenario of the day (POST) was the same scenario, with a slightly modified patient history. All scenarios included standardized distractors designed to elicit and challenge specific teamwork behaviors. Primary outcome measure was change (before and after training) in adherence to Pediatric Advanced Life Support guidelines, as measured by the Clinical Performance Tool. Secondary outcome measures were as follows: 1) change in times to initiation of chest compressions and defibrillation and 2) teamwork performance, as measured by the Clinical Teamwork Scale. Correlation between Clinical Performance Tool and Clinical Teamwork Scale scores was also analyzed. Teams significantly improved Clinical Performance Tool scores (67.3-79.6%; p Teamwork Scale scores (56.0-71.8%; p Teamwork Scale (R = 0.281; p teamwork during simulated pediatric resuscitation. A positive correlation between clinical and teamwork performance suggests that effective teamwork improves clinical performance of resuscitation teams.

Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R. [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo, E-mail: ayabe@ipen.br, E-mail: claudia.giovedi@labrisco.usp.br [Universidade de Sao Paulo (LABRISCO/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil). Lab. de Análise, Avaliação e Gerenciamento de Risco

2017-07-01

FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

Sensitivity assessment of fuel performance codes for LOCA accident scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abe, Alfredo; Gomes, Daniel; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e; Muniz, Rafael O.R.; Giovedi, Claudia; Martins, Marcelo

2017-01-01

FRAPCON code predicts fuel rod performance in LWR (Light Water Reactor) by modeling fuel responses under normal operating conditions and anticipated operational occurrences; FRAPTRAN code is applied for fuel transient under fast transient and accident conditions. The codes are well known and applied for different purposes and one of the use is to address sensitivity analysis considering fuel design parameters associated to fabrication, moreover can address the effect of physical models bias. The objective of this work was to perform an assessment of fuel manufacturing parameters tolerances and fuel models bias using FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN codes for Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) scenario. The preliminary analysis considered direct approach taken into account most relevant manufacturing tolerances (lower and upper bounds) related to design parameters and physical models bias without considering their statistical distribution. The simulations were carried out using the data available in the open literature related to the series of LOCA experiment performed at the Halden reactor (specifically IFA-650.5). The manufacturing tolerances associated to design parameters considered in this paper were: enrichment, cladding thickness, pellet diameter, pellet density, and filling gas pressure. The physical models considered were: fuel thermal expansion, fission gas release, fuel swelling, irradiation creep, cladding thermal expansion, cladding corrosion, and cladding hydrogen pickup. The results obtained from sensitivity analysis addressed the impact of manufacturing tolerances and physical models in the fuel cladding burst time observed for the IFA-650.5 experiment. (author)

Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

2015-10-01

This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang Chen

Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Demonstration of ITER operational scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Osborne, T.H.; Politzer, P.A.; Groebner, R.J.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Murakami, M.; Park, J.-M.; Reimerdes, H.; Budny, R.V.; Casper, T.A.; Holcomb, C.T.; Challis, C.D.; McKee, G.R.

2010-01-01

The DIII-D programme has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g. the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modelling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios, normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of ≥400 MW of fusion power production and Q ≥ 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of edge localized modes, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the physics requirements for the poloidal field coil set at 15 MA, based on observations that the inductance in the baseline scenario case evolves to a value that lies outside the original ITER specification.

Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doyle, E.J.; Budny, R.V.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Murakami, M.; Osborne, T.H.; Park, J.; Politzer, P.A.; Reimerdes, H.; Casper, T.A.; Challis, C.D.; Groebner, R.J.; Holcomb, C.T.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; McKee, G.R.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Rhodes, T.L.; Shafer, M.W.; Snyder, P.B.; Strait, E.J; Wade, M.R.; Wang, G.; West, W.P.; Zeng, L.

2008-01-01

The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of (ge) 400 MW of fusion power production and Q (ge) 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification

Critical thinking skills in nursing students: comparison of simulation-based performance with metrics

Science.gov (United States)

Fero, Laura J.; O’Donnell, John M.; Zullo, Thomas G.; Dabbs, Annette DeVito; Kitutu, Julius; Samosky, Joseph T.; Hoffman, Leslie A.

2018-01-01

Aim This paper is a report of an examination of the relationship between metrics of critical thinking skills and performance in simulated clinical scenarios. Background Paper and pencil assessments are commonly used to assess critical thinking but may not reflect simulated performance. Methods In 2007, a convenience sample of 36 nursing students participated in measurement of critical thinking skills and simulation-based performance using videotaped vignettes, high-fidelity human simulation, the California Critical Thinking Disposition Inventory and California Critical Thinking Skills Test. Simulation- based performance was rated as ‘meeting’ or ‘not meeting’ overall expectations. Test scores were categorized as strong, average, or weak. Results Most (75·0%) students did not meet overall performance expectations using videotaped vignettes or high-fidelity human simulation; most difficulty related to problem recognition and reporting findings to the physician. There was no difference between overall performance based on method of assessment (P = 0·277). More students met subcategory expectations for initiating nursing interventions (P ≤ 0·001) using high-fidelity human simulation. The relationship between video-taped vignette performance and critical thinking disposition or skills scores was not statistically significant, except for problem recognition and overall critical thinking skills scores (Cramer’s V = 0·444, P = 0·029). There was a statistically significant relationship between overall high-fidelity human simulation performance and overall critical thinking disposition scores (Cramer’s V = 0·413, P = 0·047). Conclusion Students’ performance reflected difficulty meeting expectations in simulated clinical scenarios. High-fidelity human simulation performance appeared to approximate scores on metrics of critical thinking best. Further research is needed to determine if simulation-based performance correlates with critical thinking skills

Critical thinking skills in nursing students: comparison of simulation-based performance with metrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Fero, Laura J; O'Donnell, John M; Zullo, Thomas G; Dabbs, Annette DeVito; Kitutu, Julius; Samosky, Joseph T; Hoffman, Leslie A

2010-10-01

This paper is a report of an examination of the relationship between metrics of critical thinking skills and performance in simulated clinical scenarios. Paper and pencil assessments are commonly used to assess critical thinking but may not reflect simulated performance. In 2007, a convenience sample of 36 nursing students participated in measurement of critical thinking skills and simulation-based performance using videotaped vignettes, high-fidelity human simulation, the California Critical Thinking Disposition Inventory and California Critical Thinking Skills Test. Simulation-based performance was rated as 'meeting' or 'not meeting' overall expectations. Test scores were categorized as strong, average, or weak. Most (75.0%) students did not meet overall performance expectations using videotaped vignettes or high-fidelity human simulation; most difficulty related to problem recognition and reporting findings to the physician. There was no difference between overall performance based on method of assessment (P = 0.277). More students met subcategory expectations for initiating nursing interventions (P ≤ 0.001) using high-fidelity human simulation. The relationship between videotaped vignette performance and critical thinking disposition or skills scores was not statistically significant, except for problem recognition and overall critical thinking skills scores (Cramer's V = 0.444, P = 0.029). There was a statistically significant relationship between overall high-fidelity human simulation performance and overall critical thinking disposition scores (Cramer's V = 0.413, P = 0.047). Students' performance reflected difficulty meeting expectations in simulated clinical scenarios. High-fidelity human simulation performance appeared to approximate scores on metrics of critical thinking best. Further research is needed to determine if simulation-based performance correlates with critical thinking skills in the clinical setting. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Advanced

Evaluation of ecosystem service based on scenario simulation of land use in Yunnan Province

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hong; Liao, Xiaoli; Zhai, Tianlin

2018-04-01

Climate change and rapid urbanization are important factors restricting future land use. Situational analysis, as an important foundation for the optimization of land use, needs to focus on the impact of climate factors and socio-economic factors. In this paper, the Markov model and the DLS (Simulation of Land System Dynamics) model are combined for the first time, and the land use pattern in 2020 is simulated based on the data of land use in 2000 and 2010 as well as the climate, soil, topography and socio-economic factors of Yunnan Province. In his paper, we took Yunnan Province as the case study area, and selected 12 driving factors by logistic regression method, then the land use demands and layout of Yunnan Province in 2020 has been forecasted and simulated under business as usual (BAU) scenario and farmland protection (FP) scenario and the changes in ecosystem service value has been calculated. The result shows that: (1) after the regression analysis and ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics) test, the 12 factors selected in this paper have a strong ability to explain the land use change in Yunnan Province. (2) Under the two scenarios, the significant reduction of arable land area is a common feature of land use change in Yunnan Province in the future, and its main land use type will be construction land. However, under FP scenario, the current situation where construction land encroach on arable land will be improved. Compared with the change from 2000 to 2010, the trend of arable land, forest land, water area, construction land and unused land will be the same under the two scenarios, whereas the change trend of grassland was opposite. (3) From 2000 to 2020, the value of ecosystem services in Yunnan Province is on the rise, but the ecosystem service value under FP scenario is higher than that of the ecosystem services under BAU scenario. In general, land use in 2020 in Yunnan Province continues the pattern of 2010, but there are also significant spatial

A Case-Based Scenario with Interdisciplinary Guided-Inquiry in Chemistry and Biology: Experiences of First Year Forensic Science Students

Science.gov (United States)

Cresswell, Sarah L.; Loughlin, Wendy A.

2017-01-01

In this paper, insight into forensic science students' experiences of a case-based scenario with an interdisciplinary guided-inquiry experience in chemistry and biology is presented. Evaluation of student experiences and interest showed that the students were engaged with all aspects of the case-based scenario, including the curriculum theory…

Scenario-based Water Resources Management Using the Water Value Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Elshorbagy, Amin; Wheater, Howard

2013-04-01

The Saskatchewan River is the key water resource for the 3 prairie provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Western Canada, and thus it is necessary to pursue long-term regional and watershed-based planning for the river basin. The water resources system is complex because it includes multiple components, representing various demand sectors, including the environment, which impose conflicting objectives, and multiple jurisdictions. The biophysical complexity is exacerbated by the socioeconomic dimensions associated for example with impacts of land and water management, value systems including environmental flows, and policy and governance dimensions.. We focus on the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) in Alberta and Saskatchewan, which is already fully allocated in southern Alberta and is subject to increasing demand due to rapid economic development and a growing population. Multiple sectors and water uses include agricultural, municipal, industrial, mining, hydropower, and environmental flow requirements. The significant spatial variability in the level of development and future needs for water places different values on water across the basin. Water resources planning and decision making must take these complexities into consideration, yet also deal with a new dimension—climate change and its possible future impacts on water resources systems. There is a pressing need to deal with water in terms of its value, rather than a mere commodity subject to traditional quantitative optimization. In this research, a value-based water resources system (VWRS) model is proposed to couple the hydrological and the societal aspects of water resources in one integrated modeling tool for the SSRB. The objective of this work is to develop the VWRS model as a negotiation, planning, and management tool that allows for the assessment of the availability, as well as the allocation scenarios, of water resources for competing users under varying conditions. The proposed

IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon

2001-01-01

This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

2007-02-01

In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

Four Scenarios for Europe. Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakkes, J.; Gaponenko, N.; Mnatsakanian, R.

2003-01-01

The third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) was published on the eve of the Johannesburg summit (autumn 2002). GEO-3 looked back thirty years and forward thirty years. A set of what-if scenarios was used to explore the ways our society can advance, including implications for environmental and social goals. Characteristically, GEO-3 examines in a relatively deep fashion how its global scenarios can be interpreted in the context of each of the world's regions. This brochure presents the pan-European elaboration of the four GEO-3 scenarios. It focusses on the scenarios proper and their impacts in environmental terms. The scenarios are: The Markets First scenario envisages a world in which market-driven developments converge on the currently prevailing values and expectations in industrialized countries; In a Policy First world, strong actions are undertaken by governments in an attempt to achieve specific social and environmental goals; The Security First scenario assumes a world full of large disparities, where inequality and conflict, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses, prevail: and Sustainability First pictures a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability supported by new, more equitable values and institutions. The second section describes 'the pan-European tale of the four futures' in a predominantly qualitative manner. Section 3 presents a regionally differentiated examination of the environmental implications of the scenarios. Details on input material, assumptions and methodologies applied, and actual results, can be found in Chapter 4 of GEO-3 'Outlook 2002-32' and in the Technical Background Report on GEO-3 Scenario Work

Realisable scenarios for a future electricity supply based 100% on renewable energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Czisch, G.; Giebel, G.

2007-01-01

In view of the resource and climate problems, it seems obvious that we must transform our energy system into one using only renewable energies. But questions arise how such a system should be structured, which techniques should be used and, of course, how costly it might be. These questions were the focus of a study which investigated the cost optimum of a future renewable electricity supply for Europe and its closer Asian and African neighbourhood. The resulting scenarios are based on a broad data basis of the electricity consumption and for renewable energies. A linear optimisation determines the best system configuration and temporal dispatch of all components. The outcome of the scenarios can be considered as being a scientific breakthrough since it proves that a totally renewable electricity supply is possible even with current technology and at the same time is affordable for our national economies. In the conservative base case scenario, wind power would dominate the production spread over the better wind areas within the whole supply area, connected with the demand centres via HVDC transmission. The transmission system, furthermore, powerfully integrates the existing storage hydropower to provide for backup co-equally assisted by biomass power and supported by solar thermal electricity. The main results of the different scenarios can be summarized as follows: 1) A totally renewable electricity supply for Europe and its neighbourhood is possible and affordable. 2) Electricity import from non-European neighbour countries can be a very valuable and substantial component of a future supply. 3) Smoothing effects by the use of sources at locations in different climate zones improve the security of the supply and reduce the costs. 4) A large-scale co-operation of many different countries opens up for the possibility to combine the goals of development policy and climate politics in a multilateral win-win strategy. To aid implementation, an international extension

The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

1998-04-01

The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

The Effects of Problem Based Scenarios on 9th Grade Students’ Attitudes towards Chemistry, Laboratory Anxiety, and Perceptions of Problem Solving

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faik Özgür Karataş

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Students were expected to construct knowledge, to criticize and to generate new ideas. PISA results in science field are disappointing. Turkish students’ performance on the questions that requires higher order thinking and problem solving skills is very poor. This indicates that learning environment should be redesigned to fulfill these lacking skills. Scenario based learning is one of the approaches that promotes problem solving skills by enabling active involvement of students into solving everyday problems. The purpose of this study is to examine effects of the problem based scenarios with worksheets on 9th grade students’ attitudes towards chemistry, laboratory anxiety, and problem solving perceptions. Pre- and post-test comparison with t-test showed that there is no significant difference before and after the treatment for none of the variables even though scores were higher after the treatment. On the other hand, data from observations and students interviews implied positive effect of the treatment.

Minimizing worst-case and average-case makespan over scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Feuerstein, Esteban; Marchetti-Spaccamela, Alberto; Schalekamp, Frans; Sitters, R.A.; van der Ster, Suzanne; Stougie, Leen; van Zuylen, Anke

2017-01-01

We consider scheduling problems over scenarios where the goal is to find a single assignment of the jobs to the machines which performs well over all scenarios in an explicitly given set. Each scenario is a subset of jobs that must be executed in that scenario. The two objectives that we consider

Scenarios for remote gas production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

2009-01-01

The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Jonas; Binkowski, Eva; Bronsart, Robert

2014-06-01

In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS) is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC) the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

Reducing the environmental impact of concrete and asphalt: a scenario approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blankendaal, T.; Schuur, Peter; Voordijk, Johannes T.

2014-01-01

In this paper, measures are evaluated to reduce the environmental impact of concrete and asphalt. Several composition scenarios are designed for these materials and are evaluated based on their environmental performance using life-cycle assessment (LCA). The effect of low-energy production

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Scenario group summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thorndike, A.

1976-01-01

The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

Improvement of nursing students' learning outcomes through scenario-based skills training.

Science.gov (United States)

Uysal, Nurcan

2016-08-08

this study analyzed the influence of scenario-based skills training on students' learning skills. the author evaluated the nursing skills laboratory exam papers of 605 sophomores in nursing programs for seven years. The study determined the common mistakes of students and the laboratory work was designed in a scenario-based format. The effectiveness of this method was evaluated by assessing the number of errors the students committed and their achievement scores in laboratory examinations. This study presents the students' common mistakes in intramuscular and subcutaneous injection and their development of intravenous access skills, included in the nursing skills laboratory examination. an analysis of the students' most common mistakes revealed that the most common was not following the principles of asepsis for all three skills (intramuscular, subcutaneous injection, intravenous access) in the first year of the scenario-based training. The students' exam achievement scores increased gradually, except in the fall semester of the academic year 2009-2010. The study found that the scenario-based skills training reduced students' common mistakes in examinations and enhanced their performance on exams. this method received a positive response from both students and instructors. The scenario-based training is available for use in addition to other skills training methods. en este estudio fue analizada la influencia de la capacitación basada en escenarios en las capacidades de aprendizaje de los alumnos. el autor evaluó los textos de exámenes de laboratorio de habilidades de enfermería producidos por 605 alumnos de segundo año en cursos de enfermería durante siete años. El estudio determinó los errores comunes de los alumnos y el trabajo en laboratorio adoptó el formato basado en escenarios. La eficacia de ese método fue evaluada mediante la cantidad de errores que los alumnos cometieron y sus notas de desempeño en exámenes de laboratorio. Este estudio

A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris A. Geldenhuys

2011-02-01

Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned. Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world. Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’ as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’ through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’. Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as a change navigation based, scenario planning process (CNBSPP. Practical/managerial implications: CNBSPP is available for use by organisations wishing to apply a strategic planning tool that fits within a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership approach. Contribution/value add: The research makes a unique contribution to the current level of knowledge by integrating two disciplines

Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project. [Assessment of post-closure performance for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.

1984-11-01

This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab.

A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

Performance Evaluation of LoRa Considering Scenario Conditions

OpenAIRE

Ramon Sanchez-Iborra; Jesus Sanchez-Gomez; Juan Ballesta-Viñas; Maria-Dolores Cano; Antonio F. Skarmeta

2018-01-01

New verticals within the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm such as smart cities, smart farming, or goods monitoring, among many others, are demanding strong requirements to the Radio Access Network (RAN) in terms of coverage, end-node’s power consumption, and scalability. The technologies employed so far to provide IoT scenarios with connectivity, e.g., wireless sensor network and cellular technologies, are not able to simultaneously cope with these three requirements. Thus, a novel solution ...

[The effect of a scenario-based simulation communication course on improving the communication skills of nurses].

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ya-Hsuan; Hsieh, Suh-Ing; Hsu, Li-Ling

2014-04-01

Limited disease knowledge is frequently the cause of disease-related anxiety in myocardial infarction patients. The ability to communicate effectively serves multiple purposes in the professional nursing practice. By communicating effectively with myocardial infarction patients, nurses may help reduce their anxiety by keeping them well informed about their disease and teaching them self-care strategies. This research evaluates the communication skills of nurses following scenario-based simulation education in the context of communication with myocardial infarction patients. This study used an experimental design and an educational intervention. The target population comprised nurses of medicine (clinical qualified level N to N2 for nursing) working at a municipal hospital in Taipei City, Taiwan. A total 122 participants were enrolled. Stratified block randomization divided participants into an experimental group and a control group. The experimental group received clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication. The control group received traditional class-based education for communication. Both groups received a pre-test and a Communication Skills Checklist post-test assessment. Results were analyzed using SPSS 17.0 for Windows software. A t-test showed significant increases in communication skills (p skills following the education intervention. The results indicate that clinical scenario-based simulation education for communication is significantly more effective than traditional class-based education in enhancing the ability of nurses to communicate effectively with myocardial infarction patients.

Performance testing of the finance platform based on LoadRunner

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CHEN Mengyun

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper,a performance testing scheme is designed to test the software interface of the financial management platform based on LoadRunner,and the scheme has been used for the performance testing of the interactive interface of the financial management platform of Shanghai Zuo Hao Network Technology Co.Ltd.The result shows that the performance characteristics of the system interface are different under different scenarios,and TPS and CPU usage performance characteristics are in an optimal status when the number of concurrent users is 40,while CPU becomes the bottleneck which is need to be addressed by system when the number of concurrent users is 50.At last,the effectiveness of the scheme has been proved.

performance performance analysis of gsm networks in minna

African Journals Online (AJOL)

eobe

in terms of key performance indicators (KPI) based on statistics performance indicators ... in this study. Keywords: GSM Network, Drive Test, KPI and Radio Frequency Network Optimization. 1. .... message (SMS) traffic or in scenarios where so.

Assessment of environmental impacts following alternative agricultural policy scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Bárlund, I; Lehtonen, H; Tattari, S

2005-01-01

Abstract Finnish agriculture is likely to undergo major changes in the near and intermediate future. The ifuture policy context can be examined at a general level by strategic scenario building. Computer-based modelling in combination with agricultural policy scenarios can in turn create a basis for the assessments of changes in environmental quality following possible changes in Finnish agriculture. The analysis of economic consequences is based on the DREMFIA model, which is applied to study effects of various agricultural policies on land use, animal production, and farmers' income. The model is suitable for an impact analysis covering an extended time span--here up to the year 2015. The changes in land use, obtained with the DREMFIA model assuming rational economic behaviour, form the basis when evaluating environmental impacts of different agricultural policies. The environmental impact assessment is performed using the field scale nutrient transport model ICECREAM. The modelled variables are nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and percolation. In this paper the modelling strategy will be presented and highlighted using two case study catchments with varying environmental conditions and land use as an example. In addition, the paper identifies issues arising when connecting policy scenarios with impact modelling.

Physician consensus on preventability and predictability of readmissions based on standard case scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Galen, L. S.; Cooksley, T; Merten, H

2016-01-01

Background: Policy makers struggle with unplanned readmissions as a quality indicator since integrating preventability in such indicators is difficult. Most studies on the preventability of readmissions questioned physicians whether they consider a given readmission to be preventable, from which...... conclusions on factors predicting preventable readmissions were derived. There is no literature on the interobserver agreement of physician judgement. Aim: To assess the degree of agreement among physicians regarding predictability and preventability of medical readmissions. Design: An online survey based...... on eight real-life case scenarios was distributed to European physicians. Methods: Physicians were requested to rate from the first four (index admission) scenarios whether they expected these patients to be readmitted within 30 days (the predictability). The remaining four cases, describing a readmission...

Model-Based Military Scenario Management for Defence Capability

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Gori, Ronnie; Chen, Pin; Pozgay, Angela

2004-01-01

.... This paper describes initial work towards the development of an information model that links scenario and capability related information, and the results of capability analysis and experimentation...

Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenlei Bai

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

2008-01-01

Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA Protocol for WBAN Medical Scenario through DTMC Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Vivek; Gupta, Bharat

2016-12-01

The newly drafted IEEE 802.15.6 standard for Wireless Body Area Networks (WBAN) has been concentrating on a numerous medical and non-medical applications. Such short range wireless communication standard offers ultra-low power consumption with variable data rates from few Kbps to Mbps in, on or around the proximity of the human body. In this paper, the performance analysis of carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) scheme based on IEEE 802.15.6 standard in terms of throughput, reliability, clear channel assessment (CCA) failure probability, packet drop probability, and end-to-end delay has been presented. We have developed a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) to significantly evaluate the performances of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA under non-ideal channel condition having saturated traffic condition including node wait time and service time. We also visualize that, as soon as the payload length increases the CCA failure probability increases, which results in lower node's reliability. Also, we have calculated the end-to-end delay in order to prioritize the node wait time cause by backoff and retransmission. The user priority (UP) wise DTMC analysis has been performed to show the importance of the standard especially for medical scenario.

The design of scenario-based training from the resilience engineering perspective: a study with grid electricians.

Science.gov (United States)

Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu; Wachs, Priscila; Righi, Angela Weber; Henriqson, Eder

2014-07-01

Although scenario-based training (SBT) can be an effective means to help workers develop resilience skills, it has not yet been analyzed from the resilience engineering (RE) perspective. This study introduces a five-stage method for designing SBT from the RE view: (a) identification of resilience skills, work constraints and actions for re-designing the socio-technical system; (b) design of template scenarios, allowing the simulation of the work constraints and the use of resilience skills; (c) design of the simulation protocol, which includes briefing, simulation and debriefing; (d) implementation of both scenarios and simulation protocol; and (e) evaluation of the scenarios and simulation protocol. It is reported how the method was applied in an electricity distribution company, in order to train grid electricians. The study was framed as an application of design science research, and five research outputs are discussed: method, constructs, model of the relationships among constructs, instantiations of the method, and theory building. Concerning the last output, the operationalization of the RE perspective on three elements of SBT is presented: identification of training objectives; scenario design; and debriefing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirose, Jiro; Muramatsu, Ken

2002-03-01

This report presents a study on the procedures for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the recent years, the use of PSHA, which is a part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), to determine the design basis earthquake motions for NPPs has been proposed. The identified earthquakes are called probability-based scenario earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates both from the study of US NRC and from Ishikawa and Kameda. The assessment of PBSEs is composed of seismic hazard analysis and identification of dominant earthquakes. The objectives of this study are to formulate the concept of PBSEs and to examine the procedures for determining the PBSEs for a domestic NPP site. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to identify PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and the examination of uncertainties involved in analytical conditions. The results obtained from the examination of PBSEs using Ishikawa's concept are as follows. (a) Since PBSEs are expressed by hazard-consistent magnitude and distance in terms of a prescribed reference probability, it is easy to obtain a concrete image of earthquakes that determine the ground response spectrum to be considered in the design of NPPs. (b) Source contribution factors provide the information on the importance of the earthquake source regions and/or active faults, and allows the selection of a couple of PBSEs based on their importance to the site. (c) Since analytical conditions involve uncertainty, sensitivity analyses on uncertainties that would affect seismic hazard curves and identification of PBSEs were performed on various aspects and provided useful insights for assessment of PBSEs. A result from this sensitivity analysis was that, although the difference in selection of attenuation equations led to a

Community disruptions and business costs for distant tsunami evacuations using maximum versus scenario-based zones

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Nathan J.; Wilson, Rick I.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Peters, Jeff; MacMullan, Ed; Krebs, Tessa; Shoaf, Kimberley; Miller, Kevin

2017-01-01

Well-executed evacuations are key to minimizing loss of life from tsunamis, yet they also disrupt communities and business productivity in the process. Most coastal communities implement evacuations based on a previously delineated maximum-inundation zone that integrates zones from multiple tsunami sources. To support consistent evacuation planning that protects lives but attempts to minimize community disruptions, we explore the implications of scenario-based evacuation procedures and use the California (USA) coastline as our case study. We focus on the land in coastal communities that is in maximum-evacuation zones, but is not expected to be flooded by a tsunami generated by a Chilean earthquake scenario. Results suggest that a scenario-based evacuation could greatly reduce the number of residents and employees that would be advised to evacuate for 24–36 h (178,646 and 159,271 fewer individuals, respectively) and these reductions are concentrated primarily in three counties for this scenario. Private evacuation spending is estimated to be greater than public expenditures for operating shelters in the area of potential over-evacuations ($13 million compared to $1 million for a 1.5-day evacuation). Short-term disruption costs for businesses in the area of potential over-evacuation are approximately $122 million for a 1.5-day evacuation, with one-third of this cost associated with manufacturing, suggesting that some disruption costs may be recouped over time with increased short-term production. There are many businesses and organizations in this area that contain individuals with limited mobility or access and functional needs that may have substantial evacuation challenges. This study demonstrates and discusses the difficulties of tsunami-evacuation decision-making for relatively small to moderate events faced by emergency managers, not only in California but in coastal communities throughout the world.

Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

2006-01-01

, which were normally crossing targets, was to test the efficiency of the track splitting algorithm for different situations. However this approach only gives a measure of performance for a specific, possibly unrealistic, scenario and it was felt appropriate to develop procedures that would enable a more...... general performance assessment. Therefore, a random target motion scenario is adopted. Its implementation in particular for testing the track splitting algorithm using Kalman filters is used and a couple of tracking performance parameters are computed to investigate such random scenarios....

Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wagner Jonas

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel’s calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

Scenario based optimization of a container vessel with respect to its projected operating conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonas Wagner

2014-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper the scenario based optimization of the bulbous bow of the KRISO Container Ship (KCS is presented. The optimization of the parametrically modeled vessel is based on a statistically developed operational profile generated from noon-to-noon reports of a comparable 3600 TEU container vessel and specific development functions representing the growth of global economy during the vessels service time. In order to consider uncertainties, statistical fluctuations are added. An analysis of these data lead to a number of most probable upcoming operating conditions (OC the vessel will stay in the future. According to their respective likeliness an objective function for the evaluation of the optimal design variant of the vessel is derived and implemented within the parametrical optimization workbench FRIENDSHIP Framework. In the following this evaluation is done with respect to vessel's calculated effective power based on the usage of potential flow code. The evaluation shows, that the usage of scenarios within the optimization process has a strong influence on the hull form.

SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Lourenço Junior

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

Using scenario-based training to promote information literacy among on-call consultant pediatricians.

Science.gov (United States)

Pettersson, Jonas; Bjorkander, Emil; Bark, Sirpa; Holmgren, Daniel; Wekell, Per

2017-07-01

Traditionally, teaching hospital staff to search for medical information relies heavily on educator-defined search methods. In contrast, the authors describe our experiences using real-time scenarios to teach on-call consultant pediatricians information literacy skills as part of a two-year continuing professional development program. Two information-searching workshops were held at Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Gothenburg, Sweden. During the workshops, pediatricians were presented with medical scenarios that were closely related to their clinical practice. Participants were initially encouraged to solve the problems using their own preferred search methods, followed by group discussions led by clinical educators and a medical librarian in which search problems were identified and overcome. The workshops were evaluated using questionnaires to assess participant satisfaction and the extent to which participants intended to implement changes in their clinical practice and reported actual change. A scenario-based approach to teaching clinicians how to search for medical information is an attractive alternative to traditional lectures. The relevance of such an approach was supported by a high level of participant engagement during the workshops and high scores for participant satisfaction, intended changes to clinical practice, and reported benefits in actual clinical practice.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Performance analysis of switching based hybrid FSO/RF transmission

KAUST Repository

Usman, Muneer; Yang, Hongchuan; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2014-01-01

Hybrid free space optical (FSO)/ radio frequency (RF) systems have emerged as a promising solution for high data rate wireless back haul.We present and analyze a switching based transmission scheme for hybrid FSO/RF system. Specifically, either FSO or RF link will be active at a certain time instance, with FSO link enjoying a higher priority. Analytical expressions have been obtained for the outage probability, average bit error rate and ergodic capacity for the resulting system. Numerical examples are presented to compare the performance of the hybrid scheme with FSO only scenario.

Performance analysis of switching based hybrid FSO/RF transmission

KAUST Repository

Usman, Muneer

2014-09-01

Hybrid free space optical (FSO)/ radio frequency (RF) systems have emerged as a promising solution for high data rate wireless back haul.We present and analyze a switching based transmission scheme for hybrid FSO/RF system. Specifically, either FSO or RF link will be active at a certain time instance, with FSO link enjoying a higher priority. Analytical expressions have been obtained for the outage probability, average bit error rate and ergodic capacity for the resulting system. Numerical examples are presented to compare the performance of the hybrid scheme with FSO only scenario.

Scenario development methodologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

1994-11-01

In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

Earthquake Scenarios Based Upon the Data and Methodologies of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

Science.gov (United States)

Rukstales, K. S.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D.; Harmsen, S. C.; Wald, D. J.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Haller, K. M.

2011-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthquake scenarios that are based on the same fault source parameters and empirical ground motion prediction equations used for the probabilistic hazard maps. Unlike the calculated hazard map ground motions, local soil amplification is applied to the scenario calculations based on the best available Vs30 (average shear-wave velocity down to 30 meters) mapping, or in some cases using topographic slope as a proxy. Systematic outputs include all standard USGS ShakeMap products, including GIS, KML, XML, and HAZUS input files. These data are available from the ShakeMap web pages with a searchable archive. The scenarios are being produced within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS) so that alternative scenarios can readily be produced by altering fault source parameters, Vs30 soil amplification, as well as the weighting of ground motion prediction equations used in the calculations. The alternative scenarios can then be used for sensitivity analysis studies to better characterize uncertainty in the source model and convey this information to decision makers. By providing a comprehensive collection of earthquake scenarios based upon the established data and methods of the USGS NSHMP, we hope to provide a well-documented source of data which can be used for visualization, planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and research purposes.

Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on the SRES A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in...

The Use of Open-Ended Problem-Based Learning Scenarios in an Interdisciplinary Biotechnology Class: Evaluation of a Problem-Based Learning Course Across Three Years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Todd R. Steck

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Use of open-ended Problem-Based Learning (PBL in biology classrooms has been limited by the difficulty in designing problem scenarios such that the content learned in a course can be predicted and controlled, the lack of familiarity of this method of instruction by faculty, and the difficulty in assessment. Here we present the results of a study in which we developed a team-based interdisciplinary course that combined the fields of biology and civil engineering across three years. We used PBL scenarios as the only learning tool, wrote the problem scenarios, and developed the means to assess these courses and the results of that assessment. Our data indicates that PBL changed students’ perception of their learning in content knowledge and promoted a change in students’ learning styles. Although no  statistically significant improvement in problem-solving skills and critical thinking skills was observed, students reported substantial changes in their problem-based learning strategies and critical thinking skills.

Scenario-based potential effects of carbon trading in China: An integrated approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Cheng; Wang, Qunwei; Shi, Dan; Li, Pengfei; Cai, Wanhuan

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Carbon dioxide shadow price shows a negative asymmetrical correlation with carbon dioxide emissions in China. • The implements of carbon trading can bring Porter Hypothesis effect significantly. • Provincial carbon trading can reduce carbon intensity by 19.79–25.24% in China. - Abstract: Using China’s provincial panel data and national panel data of OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) and BRICS (Five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), this paper simulates the scenario-based potential effect of carbon trading in China. Analysis methods included Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Difference-in-differences Model, and Nonlinear Programming Technique. Results indicated that in a theory-based view of carbon trading, the shadow price of carbon dioxide generally rises, with a non-linear negative correlation with carbon dioxide emissions. In different regions, the shadow price of carbon dioxide presents a digressive tendency among eastern, central, and western areas, with divergent gaps between and within areas. When the greatest goal is assumed to reduce national carbon intensity as much as possible at the given national GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (Scenario I), carbon trading has the effect of reducing carbon intensity by 19.79%, with the consideration of Porter Hypothesis effect. If the rigid constraint of national GDP is relaxed, and the dual constraint of both economic growth and environment protection in each region is introduced (Scenario II), the resulting effect is a reduced carbon intensity of 25.24%. China’s general carbon intensity in 2012 was higher than goals set at the Copenhagen Conference, but lagged behind the goal of Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economy. This study provides realistic and significant technical support for the government to use in designing and deploying a national carbon trading market.

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

-oriented scenario exercises also generate scenario products, but such products are recognized as meaningful mostly (or only) in the social context in which they were developed. It should be noted that those seeking to understand the functions, implications and utility of scenarios can approach analysis of scenarios and their impacts from either perspective—focusing attention on product outcomes and influence or assessing procedural and contextual dynamics and implications. Papers in this issue examine various aspects of scenario products, scenario processes and their interactions, with specific reference to global environmental change scenarios. Hulme and Dessai (2008) use the product-process distinction as a starting point for developing a framework to evaluate the success of scenario exercises. They identify 'prediction success', 'decision success' and 'learning success' as three evaluation metrics for scenarios, with the first two most relevant to scenario products and the last emphasizing procedural aspects of scenarios. They suggest that viewing scenarios primarily as products implies examining how closely actual outcomes have matched envisioned outcomes, while viewing them primarily as processes suggests evaluating the extent to which scenarios engaged participants and enabled their learning. O'Neill and Nakicenovic (2008) focus on Hulme and Dessai's evaluation metric, learning. Based on a review of six scenario/assessment exercises, they ask if and how scenario products have incorporated comparative assessments of results in order to enable cumulative learning across scenario efforts. The authors conclude that, although participating modelling teams have benefited greatly from the process of scenario activities and applied that learning to other scenario exercises in which they engage, learning from comparative assessments of scenario products has been rather limited; the latter due to the limited time and resources invested in comparative analysis. Pitcher (2009) speaks

Modelling land use changes according to transportation scenarios using raster based GIS indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fuglsang, Morten; Münier, Bernd; Hansen, Henning Sten

2012-01-01

the cellular automata model LUCIA. An Eastern Danish case area was selected, comprising the Copenhagen metropolitan area and its hinterland. The different scenarios are described using a range of different GIS datasets. These include mapping of accessibility based on public and private transportation, urban....... In the EU-FP7 research project PASHMINA (Paradigm Shift modelling and innovative approaches), three storylines of future transportation paradigm shifts towards 2050 are created. These storylines are translated into spatial planning strategies and their implication on land use changes were modelled via...... in urban distribution that different spatial planning strategies may initiate, and thus change the shape of the urban landscape. The scenarios outline different planning strategies, leading to a more homogenous urban structure, targeted at a reduction of transportation work and thus energy consumption...

Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

2009-10-01

The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

2014-01-01

Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-01

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Besseghir, K.

2013-06-15

The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

Accelerated Evaluation of Automated Vehicles Safety in Lane-Change Scenarios Based on Importance Sampling Techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ding; Lam, Henry; Peng, Huei; Bao, Shan; LeBlanc, David J; Nobukawa, Kazutoshi; Pan, Christopher S

2017-03-01

Automated vehicles (AVs) must be thoroughly evaluated before their release and deployment. A widely used evaluation approach is the Naturalistic-Field Operational Test (N-FOT), which tests prototype vehicles directly on the public roads. Due to the low exposure to safety-critical scenarios, N-FOTs are time consuming and expensive to conduct. In this paper, we propose an accelerated evaluation approach for AVs. The results can be used to generate motions of the other primary vehicles to accelerate the verification of AVs in simulations and controlled experiments. Frontal collision due to unsafe cut-ins is the target crash type of this paper. Human-controlled vehicles making unsafe lane changes are modeled as the primary disturbance to AVs based on data collected by the University of Michigan Safety Pilot Model Deployment Program. The cut-in scenarios are generated based on skewed statistics of collected human driver behaviors, which generate risky testing scenarios while preserving the statistical information so that the safety benefits of AVs in nonaccelerated cases can be accurately estimated. The cross-entropy method is used to recursively search for the optimal skewing parameters. The frequencies of the occurrences of conflicts, crashes, and injuries are estimated for a modeled AV, and the achieved accelerated rate is around 2000 to 20 000. In other words, in the accelerated simulations, driving for 1000 miles will expose the AV with challenging scenarios that will take about 2 to 20 million miles of real-world driving to encounter. This technique thus has the potential to greatly reduce the development and validation time for AVs.

ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laqua H.P.

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P. [Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

2015-06-15

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG Site-Scale Model. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference. (author)

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P., E-mail: mgobien@nwmo.ca [Nuclear Waste Management Organization, Toronto, ON (Canada)

2015-07-01

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG [1] Site-Scale Model [2]. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference [2]. (author)

Assessment of disruptive scenarios of a Canadian used fuel repository in crystalline rock

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gobien, M.; Garisto, F.; Hunt, N.; Kremer, E.P.

2015-01-01

The NWMO has recently extended its modelling capabilities by performing simulations for four disruptive scenarios that, to date, have not yet been examined in detail. These scenarios complement those considered in an existing postclosure safety assessment for a conceptual geological repository located in a hypothetical crystalline rock formation. The four new disruptive scenarios are: Shaft Seal Failure, Undetected Fault, Open or Poorly Sealed Borehole and Open Borehole Due to Inadvertent Human Intrusion. All simulations are based on the FRAC3DVS-OPG [1] Site-Scale Model [2]. The Site-Scale Model includes a simplified representation of the full repository and a portion of the surrounding sub-regional flow system. All transport simulations are performed with only the radionuclide I-129. Transport rates to the surface and a domestic water supply well are compared to the Reference Case results from an earlier case study documented in Reference [2]. (author)

ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

2014-01-01

This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

Preliminary identification of potentially disruptive scenarios at the Greater Confinement Disposal Facility, Area 5 of the Nevada Test Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guzowski, R.V.; Newman, G.

1993-12-01

The Greater Confinement Disposal location is being evaluated to determine whether defense-generated transuranic waste buried at this location complies with the Containment Requirements established by the US Environmental Protection Agency. One step in determining compliance is to identify those combinations of events and processes (scenarios) that define possible future states of the disposal system for which performance assessments must be performed. An established scenario-development procedure was used to identify a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios. To assure completeness, 761 features, events, processes, and other listings (FEPS) were compiled from 11 references. This number was reduced to 205 primarily through the elimination of duplications. The 205 FEPs were screened based on site-specific, goal-specific, and regulatory criteria. Four events survived screening and were used in preliminary scenario development: (1) exploratory drilling penetrates a GCD borehole, (2) drilling of a withdrawal/injection well penetrates a GCD borehole, (3) subsidence occurs at the RWMS, and (4) irrigation occurs at the RWMS. A logic diagram was used to develop 16 scenarios from the four events. No screening of these scenarios was attempted at this time. Additional screening of the currently retained events and processes will be based on additional data and information from site-characterization activities. When screening of the events and processes is completed, a final set of scenarios will be developed and screened based on consequence and probability of occurrence

Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

2016-08-01

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

Comparison of HRA methods based on WWER-1000 NPP real and simulated accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petkov, Gueorgui

2010-01-01

Full text: Adequate treatment of human interactions in probabilistic safety analysis (PSA) studies is a key to the understanding of accident sequences and their relative importance in overall risk. Human interactions with machines have long been recognized as important contributors to the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPP). Human interactions affect the ordering of dominant accident sequences and hence have a significant effect on the risk of NPP. By virtue of the ability to combine the treatment of both human and hardware reliability in real accidents, NPP fullscope, multifunctional and computer-based simulators provide a unique way of developing an understanding of the importance of specific human actions for overall plant safety. Context dependent human reliability assessment (HRA) models, such as the holistic decision tree (HDT) and performance evaluation of teamwork (PET) methods, are the so-called second generation HRA techniques. The HDT model has been used for a number of PSA studies. The PET method reflects promising prospects for dealing with dynamic aspects of human performance. The paper presents a comparison of the two HRA techniques for calculation of post-accident human error probability in the PSA. The real and simulated event training scenario 'turbine's stop after loss of feedwater' based on standard PSA model assumptions is designed for WWER-1000 computer simulator and their detailed boundary conditions are described and analyzed. The error probability of post-accident individual actions will be calculated by means of each investigated technique based on student's computer simulator training archives

A Two-Account Life Insurance Model for Scenario-Based Valuation Including Event Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ninna Reitzel Jensen

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Using a two-account model with event risk, we model life insurance contracts taking into account both guaranteed and non-guaranteed payments in participating life insurance as well as in unit-linked insurance. Here, event risk is used as a generic term for life insurance events, such as death, disability, etc. In our treatment of participating life insurance, we have special focus on the bonus schemes “consolidation” and “additional benefits”, and one goal is to formalize how these work and interact. Another goal is to describe similarities and differences between participating life insurance and unit-linked insurance. By use of a two-account model, we are able to illustrate general concepts without making the model too abstract. To allow for complicated financial markets without dramatically increasing the mathematical complexity, we focus on economic scenarios. We illustrate the use of our model by conducting scenario analysis based on Monte Carlo simulation, but the model applies to scenarios in general and to worst-case and best-estimate scenarios in particular. In addition to easy computations, our model offers a common framework for the valuation of life insurance payments across product types. This enables comparison of participating life insurance products and unit-linked insurance products, thus building a bridge between the two different ways of formalizing life insurance products. Finally, our model distinguishes itself from the existing literature by taking into account the Markov model for the state of the policyholder and, hereby, facilitating event risk.

Scenario based approach for multiple source Tsunami Hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

OpenAIRE

M. Wronna; R. Omira; M. A. Baptista

2015-01-01

In this paper, we present a scenario-based approach for tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines – Portugal, one of the test-sites of project ASTARTE. Sines holds one of the most important deep-water ports which contains oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid bulk, coal and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures are facing the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seis...

Scenarios, personas and user stories: user-centered evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

2013-08-01

Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of user-centered design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to CD monitoring and control at a local health agency, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health agency CD workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: (1) public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed, (2) health agency efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and (3) current CD information systems must conform to public health workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Through application of user-centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable disease workflow and key user characteristics to inform the design of CD information

Improving the performance of a filling line based on simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Jasiulewicz-Kaczmarek, M.; Bartkowiak, T.

2016-08-01

The paper describes the method of improving performance of a filling line based on simulation. This study concerns a production line that is located in a manufacturing centre of a FMCG company. A discrete event simulation model was built using data provided by maintenance data acquisition system. Two types of failures were identified in the system and were approximated using continuous statistical distributions. The model was validated taking into consideration line performance measures. A brief Pareto analysis of line failures was conducted to identify potential areas of improvement. Two improvements scenarios were proposed and tested via simulation. The outcome of the simulations were the bases of financial analysis. NPV and ROI values were calculated taking into account depreciation, profits, losses, current CIT rate and inflation. A validated simulation model can be a useful tool in maintenance decision-making process.

Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

Assessing the Psychometric Properties of a Scenario-Based Measure of Achievement Guilt and Shame

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Ted; Sharp, Jessica; Alexander, James

2008-01-01

In this study, the psychometric properties of the scenario-based Achievement Guilt and Shame Scale (AGSS) were established. The AGSS and scales assessing interpersonal guilt and shame, high standards, overgeneralization, self-criticism, self-esteem, academic self-concept, fear of failure, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were…

Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

2014-04-01

Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

2017-12-01

Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the NIST database towards the composition of vulnerabilities in attack scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; van Keulen, Maurice

The composition of vulnerabilities in attack scenarios has been traditionally performed based on detailed pre- and post-conditions. Although very precise, this approach is dependent on human analysis, is time consuming, and not at all scalable. We investigate the NIST National Vulnerability Database

A methodology for scenario development based on understanding of long-term evolution of geological disposal systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Ebashi, Takeshi; Ueda, Hiroyoshi; Koyama, Toshihiro; Shiratsuchi, Hiroshi; Yashio, Shoko; Kawamura, Hideki

2012-01-01

We have developed a 'hybrid' scenario development method by combining bottom-up and top-down approaches and applied for the case of geological disposal of high-level waste. This approach provides a top-down perspective, by introducing a concept of safety functions for different periods and 'storyboards', which depict repository evolution with time on a range of spatial scales, and a bottom-up perspective, by identifying relationship between processes related to radionuclide migration and safety functions based on feature, event and process (FEP) management. Based on a trial study, we have specified work descriptions for each step of the hybrid scenario development methodology and confirmed that the storyboard provides a baseline and holistic overview for the FEP management and a common platform to involve close interaction with experts in various disciplines to understand the crossover phenomenological processes. We also confirmed that there is no conflict between the top-down approach and the bottom-up approach and the hybrid scenario development work frame fulfils the specified requirements for traceability, comprehensiveness, ease of understanding, integration of multidisciplinary knowledge and applicability to a staged approach to siting. (author)

Real-geographic-scenario-based virtual social environments: integrating geography with social research

OpenAIRE

Min Chen; Li He; Hui Lin; Chunxiao Zhang; Mingyuan Hu

2013-01-01

Existing online virtual worlds, or electronic environments, are of great significance to social science research, but are somewhat lacking in rigour. One reason is that users might not participate in those virtual worlds in the way they act in real daily life, communicating with each other in familiar environments and interacting with natural phenomena under the constraints of the human–land relationship. To help solve this problem we propose the real-geographic-scenario-based virtual social ...

A Risk Metric Assessment of Scenario-Based Market Risk Measures for Volatility and Risk Estimation: Evidence from Emerging Markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sitima Innocent

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The study evaluated the sensitivity of the Value- at- Risk (VaR and Expected Shortfalls (ES with respect to portfolio allocation in emerging markets with an index portfolio of a developed market. This study utilised different models for VaR and ES techniques using various scenario-based models such as Covariance Methods, Historical Simulation and the GARCH (1, 1 for the predictive ability of these models in both relatively stable market conditions and extreme market conditions. The results showed that Expected Shortfall has less risk tolerance than VaR based on the same scenario-based market risk measures

Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

2009-01-01

Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

FttC-Based Fronthaul for 5G Dense/Ultra-Dense Access Network: Performance and Costs in Realistic Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franco Mazzenga

2017-10-01

Full Text Available One distinctive feature of the next 5G systems is the presence of a dense/ultra-dense wireless access network with a large number of access points (or nodes at short distances from each other. Dense/ultra-dense access networks allow for providing very high transmission capacity to terminals. However, the deployment of dense/ultra-dense networks is slowed down by the cost of the fiber-based infrastructure required to connect radio nodes to the central processing units and then to the core network. In this paper, we investigate the possibility for existing FttC access networks to provide fronthaul capabilities for dense/ultra-dense 5G wireless networks. The analysis is realistic in that it is carried out considering an actual access network scenario, i.e., the Italian FttC deployment. It is assumed that access nodes are connected to the Cabinets and to the corresponding distributors by a number of copper pairs. Different types of cities grouped in terms of population have been considered. Results focus on fronthaul transport capacity provided by the FttC network and have been expressed in terms of the available fronthaul bit rate per node and of the achievable coverage.

Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kerry A. Waylen

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

Scenario planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Scenario-Based Digital Forensics Challenges in Cloud Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erik Miranda Lopez

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of digital forensics is to extract information to answer the 5Ws (Why, When, Where, What, and Who from the data extracted from the evidence. In order to achieve this, most digital forensic processes assume absolute control of digital evidence. However, in a cloud environment forensic investigation, this is not always possible. Additionally, the unique characteristics of cloud computing create new technical, legal and architectural challenges when conducting a forensic investigation. We propose a hypothetical scenario to uncover and explain the challenges forensic practitioners face during cloud investigations. Additionally, we also provide solutions to address the challenges. Our hypothetical case scenario has shown that, in the long run, better live forensic tools, development of new methods tailored for cloud investigations and new procedures and standards are indeed needed. Furthermore, we have come to the conclusion that forensic investigations biggest challenge is not technical but legal.

A Global System for Transportation Simulation and Visualization in Emergency Evacuation Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lu, Wei [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Thomas, Neil [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

2015-01-01

Simulation-based studies are frequently used for evacuation planning and decision making processes. Given the transportation systems complexity and data availability, most evacuation simulation models focus on certain geographic areas. With routine improvement of OpenStreetMap road networks and LandScanTM global population distribution data, we present WWEE, a uniform system for world-wide emergency evacuation simulations. WWEE uses unified data structure for simulation inputs. It also integrates a super-node trip distribution model as the default simulation parameter to improve the system computational performance. Two levels of visualization tools are implemented for evacuation performance analysis, including link-based macroscopic visualization and vehicle-based microscopic visualization. For left-hand and right-hand traffic patterns in different countries, the authors propose a mirror technique to experiment with both scenarios without significantly changing traffic simulation models. Ten cities in US, Europe, Middle East, and Asia are modeled for demonstration. With default traffic simulation models for fast and easy-to-use evacuation estimation and visualization, WWEE also retains the capability of interactive operation for users to adopt customized traffic simulation models. For the first time, WWEE provides a unified platform for global evacuation researchers to estimate and visualize their strategies performance of transportation systems under evacuation scenarios.

Study of Mobility Enhancements for RPL in Convergecast Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinpeng Wang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In recent years, mobility support has become an important requirement in various wireless sensor network (WSN applications. However, due to the strict resource constraints of power, memory, and processing resources in WSNs, routing protocols are mainly designed without considering mobility. Low-Power and Lossy Networks (LLNs are a special type of WSNs that tolerate data loss. The Routing Protocol for Low-Power and Lossy Networks (RPL is a routing protocol for LLNs that adapts IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6 and runs on top of the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 802.15.4 standard. RPL supports multipoint-to-point traffic and point-to-multipoint traffic. In this paper we propose a mobility enhancement mechanism in order to improve data collection applications in highly mobile scenarios. The enhancement is based on signal strength monitoring and depth updating in order to improve the routing protocol performance in mobile scenarios. This enhancement helps routing protocols to cope better with topology changes and makes proactive decisions on updating next-hop neighbours. We integrated this mechanism into the RPL and compared it with other existing RPL mobility support enhancements. Results obtained through simulation using Cooja show that our work outperforms other existing RPL mobility supports on different performance metrics. Results also prove the efficiency of our proposal in highly mobile scenarios.

Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

2015-01-01

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

Analysis of tag-based Recommendation Performance for a Semantic Wiki

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Durao, Frederico; Dolog, Peter

2009-01-01

Recommendations play a very important role for revealing related topics addressed in the wikis beyond the currently viewed page. In this paper, we extend KiWi, a semantic wiki with three different recommendation approaches. The first approach is implemented as a traditional tag-based retrieval......, the second takes into account external factors such as tag popularity, tag representativeness and the affinity between user and tag and the third approach recommends pages in grouped by tag. The experiment evaluates the wiki performance in different scenarios regarding the amount of pages, tags and users...

CLASS: Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mouginot, B.; Thiolliere, N.

2015-01-01

The nuclear reactor simulation community has to perform complex electronuclear scenario simulations. To avoid constraints coming from the existing powerful scenario software such as COSI, VISION or FAMILY, the open source Core Library for Advanced Scenario Simulation (CLASS) has been developed. The main asset of CLASS is its ability to include any type of reactor, whether the system is innovative or standard. A reactor is fully described by its evolution database which should contain a set of different validated fuel compositions in order to simulate transitional scenarios. CLASS aims to be a useful tool to study scenarios involving Generation-IV reactors as well as innovative fuel cycles, like the thorium cycle. In addition to all standard key objects required by an electronuclear scenario simulation (the isotopic vector, the reactor, the fuel storage and the fabrication units), CLASS also integrates two new specific modules: fresh fuel evolution and recycled fuel fabrication. The first module, dealing with fresh fuel evolution, is implemented in CLASS by solving Bateman equations built from a database induced cross-sections. The second module, which incorporates the fabrication of recycled fuel to CLASS, can be defined by user priorities and/or algorithms. By default, it uses a linear Pu equivalent-method, which allows predicting, from the isotopic composition, the maximum burn-up accessible for a set type of fuel. This paper presents the basis of the CLASS scenario, the fuel method applied to a MOX fuel and an evolution module benchmark based on the French electronuclear fleet from 1977 to 2012. Results of the CLASS calculation were compared with the inventory made and published by the ANDRA organisation in 2012. For UOX used fuels, the ANDRA reported 12006 tonnes of heavy metal in stock, including cooling, versus 18500 tonnes of heavy metal predicted by CLASS. The large difference is easily explained by the presence of 56 tonnes of plutonium already separated

EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

Incorporating stakeholder perspectives into model-based scenarios : Exploring the futures of the Dutch gas sector

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eker, S.; van Daalen, C.; Thissen, W.A.H.

2017-01-01

Several model-based, analytical approaches have been developed recently to deal with the deep uncertainty present in situations for which futures studies are conducted. These approaches focus on covering a wide variety of scenarios and searching for robust strategies. However, they generally do

Assessing Therapist Competence: Development of a Performance-Based Measure and Its Comparison With a Web-Based Measure.

Science.gov (United States)

Cooper, Zafra; Doll, Helen; Bailey-Straebler, Suzanne; Bohn, Kristin; de Vries, Dian; Murphy, Rebecca; O'Connor, Marianne E; Fairburn, Christopher G

2017-10-31

Recent research interest in how best to train therapists to deliver psychological treatments has highlighted the need for rigorous, but scalable, means of measuring therapist competence. There are at least two components involved in assessing therapist competence: the assessment of their knowledge of the treatment concerned, including how and when to use its strategies and procedures, and an evaluation of their ability to apply such knowledge skillfully in practice. While the assessment of therapists' knowledge has the potential to be completed efficiently on the Web, the assessment of skill has generally involved a labor-intensive process carried out by clinicians, and as such, may not be suitable for assessing training outcome in certain circumstances. The aims of this study were to develop and evaluate a role-play-based measure of skill suitable for assessing training outcome and to compare its performance with a highly scalable Web-based measure of applied knowledge. Using enhanced cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT-E) for eating disorders as an exemplar, clinical scenarios for role-play assessment were developed and piloted together with a rating scheme for assessing trainee therapists' performance. These scenarios were evaluated by examining the performance of 93 therapists from different professional backgrounds and at different levels of training in implementing CBT-E. These therapists also completed a previously developed Web-based measure of applied knowledge, and the ability of the Web-based measure to efficiently predict competence on the role-play measure was investigated. The role-play measure assessed performance at implementing a range of CBT-E procedures. The majority of the therapists rated their performance as moderately or closely resembling their usual clinical performance. Trained raters were able to achieve good-to-excellent reliability for averaged competence, with intraclass correlation coefficients ranging from .653 to 909. The measure was

A Novel Cooperation-Based Network Coding Scheme for Walking Scenarios in WBANs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongyun Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs, the tradeoff between network throughput and energy efficiency remains a key challenge. Most current transmission schemes try to cope with the challenge from the perspective of general Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs, which may not take the peculiarities of WBAN channels into account. In this paper, we take advantage of the correlation of on-body channels in walking scenarios to achieve a better tradeoff between throughput and energy consumption. We first analyze the characteristics of on-body channels based on realistic channel gain datasets, which are collected by our customized wireless transceivers in walking scenarios. The analytical results confirm the rationale of our newly proposed transmission scheme A3NC, which explores the combination of the aggregative allocation (AA mechanism in MAC layer and the Analog Network Coding (ANC technique in PHY layer. Both theoretical analyses and simulation results show that the A3NC scheme achieves significant improvement in upload throughput and energy efficiency, compared to the conventional approaches.

The role of an exergy-based building stock model for exploration of future decarbonisation scenarios and policy making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García Kerdan, Iván; Raslan, Rokia; Ruyssevelt, Paul; Morillón Gálvez, David

2017-01-01

State-of-the-art research suggests that energy systems are best evaluated using exergy analysis, as exergy represents the real value of an energy source, demonstrating it to be the only rational basis for evaluation. After discovering the lack of thermodynamic integration into stock modelling, this paper presents the development of an exergy-based building stock model. The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, to investigate the impact of large-scale future energy retrofit scenarios in the English and Welsh (E&W) non-domestic sector, and secondly, to determine the potential of exergy analysis in improving sectoral efficiency and its potential implications on exergy-oriented policy making. The research explores seven different large-scale future retrofit scenarios that encompass typical, low-carbon, and low-exergy approaches. Modelling results show that by 2050, current regulations have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 49.0±2.9% and increasing sector thermodynamic efficiency from 10.7% to 13.7%. On the other hand, a low-exergy oriented scenario based on renewable electricity and heat pumps is able to reduce carbon emissions by 88.2±2.4%, achieving a sectoral exergy efficiency of 19.8%. This modelling framework can provide energy policy makers with new insights on policy options based on exergy indicators and the assessment of their potential impact. - Highlights: • A bottom-up exergy-based model was developed to analyse the UK non-domestic sector. • Different low-carbon and low-exergy large-scale retrofit scenarios were assessed. • The UK non-domestic sector as a whole has an exergy efficiency of 10.7±4.06%. • Exergy-based retrofits could reduce sectoral carbon emissions by 88±2.4% for 2050. • Exergy oriented policies are required to obtain a sustainable building sector.

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant compliance certification application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

GALSON, D.A.; SWIFT, PETER N.; ANDERSON, D. RICHARD; BENNETT, D.G.

1998-01-01

Demonstrating compliance with the applicable regulations for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires an assessment of the long-term performance of the disposal system. Scenario development is one starting point of this assessment, and generates inquiry about the present state and future evolution of the disposal system. Scenario development consists of four tasks: (1) identifying and classifying features, events and processes (FEPs), (2) screening FEPs according to well-defined criteria, (3) forming scenarios (combinations of FEPs) in the context of regulatory performance criteria and (4) specifying of scenarios for consequence analysis. The development and screening of a comprehensive FEP list provides assurance that the identification of significant processes and events is complete, that potential interactions between FEPs are not overlooked, and that responses to possible questions are available and well documented. Two basic scenarios have been identified for the WIPP: undisturbed performance (UP) and disturbed performance (DP). The UP scenario is used to evaluate compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Individual Dose (40 CFR Section 191-15) and Groundwater Protection (40 CFR Section 191-24) standards and accounts for all natural-, waste- and repository-induced FEPs that survive the screening process. The DP scenario is required for assessment calculations for the EPA's cumulative release standard (Containment Requirements, 40 CFR Section 191-13) and accounts for disruptive future human events, which have an uncertain probability of occurrence, in addition to the UP FEPs

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan M Requena-Mullor

Full Text Available As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the

Methodology implementation for multi objective optimisation for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freynet, David

2016-01-01

The issue of the evolution French nuclear fleet can be considered through the study of nuclear transition scenarios. These studies are of paramount importance as their results can greatly affect the decision making process, given that they take into account industrial concerns, investments, time, and nuclear system complexity. Such studies can be performed with the COSI code (developed at the CEA/DEN), which enables the calculation of matter inventories and fluxes across the fuel cycle (nuclear reactors and associated facilities), especially when coupled with the CESAR depletion code. The studies today performed with COSI require the definition of the various scenarios' input parameters, in order to fulfil different objectives such as minimising natural uranium consumption, waste production and so on. These parameters concern the quantities and the scheduling of spent fuel destined for reprocessing, and the number, the type and the commissioning dates of deployed reactors.This work aims to develop, validate and apply an optimisation methodology coupled with COSI, in order to determine optimal nuclear transition scenarios for a multi-objective platform. Firstly, this methodology is based on the acceleration of scenario evaluation, enabling the use of optimisation methods in a reasonable time-frame. With this goal in mind, artificial neural network irradiation surrogate models are created with the URANIE platform (developed at the CEA/DEN) and are implemented within COSI. The next step in this work is to use, adapt and compare different optimisation methods, such as URANIE's genetic algorithm and particle swarm methods, in order to define a methodology suited to this type of study. This methodology development is based on an incremental approach which progressively adds objectives, constraints and decision variables to the optimisation problem definition. The variables added, which are related to reactor deployment and spent fuel reprocessing strategies, are chosen

ASSESSMENT AND DECISION MAKING SCENARIO OF CARBON EMISSION IN SUGAR INDUSTRY BASED ON ENERGY CONSUMPTION USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

CHAIRUL SALEH

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This research is conducted to assess and create some scenarios in the sugar industry, which aimed to decrease the production of CO2 emissions in PT Madubaru. In this research, the assessment of CO2 emission is based on the energy consumption used in supply chain activities during the production period in 2014. The problem faced in this research is the used of energy for transportation and production in a complex condition. Thus, simulation modeling based on system dynamic has been proposed to build the assessment model and create a scenario. The result shows that PT Madubaru produces around 174,246,500 kg in 171 days or during the production period in 2014. It means that the amount of CO2 emission in a day is around 1,018,985 kg. Two scenarios haves been developeded in order to reduce CO2 emissions. First, changing the old type boiler with the new one by increasing 155% fuel efficiency. This scenario is proven to reduce the amount of CO2 by 44% or become 98,800,400 kg. Second, eliminating the use of lorry which reduce the 0.2% of CO2 emission or equal to 387,600 kg.

Relative evaluation on decommissioning accident scenarios of nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Kwan-Seong; Choi, Byung-Seon; Moon, Jei-Kwon; Hyun, Dong-Jun; Kim, Geun-Ho; Kim, Tae-Hyoung; Jo, Kyung-Hwa; Seo, Jae-Seok; Jeong, Seong-Young; Lee, Jung-Jun

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► This paper suggests relative importance on accident scenarios during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. ► The importance of scenarios can be performed by using AHP and Sugeno fuzzy method. ► The AHP and Sugeno fuzzy method guarantee reliability of the importance evaluation. -- Abstract: This paper suggests the evaluation method of relative importance on accident scenarios during decommissioning of nuclear facilities. The evaluation method consists of AHP method and Sugeno fuzzy integral method. This method will guarantee the reliability of relative importance evaluation for decommissioning accident scenarios.

Update of energy performance certificates in the residential sector and scenarios that consider the impact of automation, control and management systems: A case study of La Rioja

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

López-González, Luis M.; López-Ochoa, Luis M.; Las-Heras-Casas, Jesús; García-Lozano, César

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A total of 9416 energy performance certificates in the residential sector were analyzed. • Approximately 40% of the energy performance certificates were incorrect. • The developed algorithms can be generalized for the remainder of Spain. • Introducing BACS and TBM systems can reduce building energy consumption by up to 26.36%. - Abstract: Energy performance certificates are considered to be tools for knowledge and energy planning in the residential sector. Although energy performance certificates describe primary energy consumption and the associated emissions of a home or building, they do not consider the influence of building automation control systems (BACS) or technical building management (TBM) systems on these parameters. The European Standard EN 15232 remedies this shortcoming and evaluates the savings in primary energy and the reduction of CO_2 emissions that can be achieved by these systems. This study investigates the energy performance certificates registered in the Autonomous Community of La Rioja and considers the policy changes in the Technical Building Code (Código Técnico de la Edificación) and, specifically, the Basic Document for Energy Saving (Documento Básico de Ahorro de Energía) (CTE-DB-HE). Due to this regulatory change, we corrected the certificates and outlined different scenarios based on the implementation of these systems in this study. These scenarios show the potential distribution of energy performance certificates and the improvements in the ratings obtained.

Treatment of hypogonadotropic male hypogonadism: Case-based scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Crosnoe-Shipley, Lindsey E; Elkelany, Osama O; Rahnema, Cyrus D; Kim, Edward D

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to review four case-based scenarios regarding the treatment of symptomatic hypogonadism in men. The article is designed as a review of published literature. We conducted a PubMed literature search for the time period of 1989-2014, concentrating on 26 studies investigating the efficacy of various therapeutic options on semen analysis, pregnancy outcomes, time to recovery of spermatogenesis, as well as serum and intratesticular testosterone levels. Our results demonstrated that exogenous testosterone suppresses intratesticular testosterone production, which is an absolute prerequisite for normal spermatogenesis. Cessation of exogenous testosterone should be recommended for men desiring to maintain their fertility. Therapies that protect the testis involve human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) therapy or selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs), but may also include low dose hCG with exogenous testosterone. Off-label use of SERMs, such as clomiphene citrate, are effective for maintaining testosterone production long-term and offer the convenience of representing a safe, oral therapy. At present, routine use of aromatase inhibitors is not recommended based on a lack of long-term data. We concluded that exogenous testosterone supplementation decreases sperm production. It was determined that clomiphene citrate is a safe and effective therapy for men who desire to maintain fertility. Although less frequently used in the general population, hCG therapy with or without testosterone supplementation represents an alternative treatment. PMID:25949938

Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Braun, Kimberly

1997-01-01

.... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

Designing Citizen Business Loan Model to Reduce Non-Performing Loan: An Agent-based Modeling and Simulation Approach in Regional Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moses L Singgih

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Citizen Business Loan (CBL constitutes a program poverty alleviation based on economic empowerment of small and medium enterprise. This study focuses on implementation of CBL at Regional Development Bank branch X. The problem is the existing of interdependencies between CBL’s implements (Bank and the uncertainty of debtor’s capability in returning the credit. The impact of this circumstance is non-performing loan (NPL becomes relatively high (22%. The ultimate objective is to minimize NPL by designing the model based on the agent that can represent the problem through a simulation using agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS. The model is considered by managing the probability of the debtor to pay or not based on 5 C categories, they are: character, capacity, capital, condition, and collateral that inherent to each debtor. There are two improvement scenarios proposed in this model. The first scenario only involves the first category of debtor in simulation. The result of this scenario is NPL value as 0%. The second scenario includes the first and second of debtor’s category in simulation and resulting NPL value between 4.6% and 11.4%.

Scenarios, personas and user stories from design ethnography: Evidence-based design representations of communicable disease investigations

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Anne M; Reeder, Blaine; Ramey, Judith

2014-01-01

Purpose Despite years of effort and millions of dollars spent to create a unified electronic communicable disease reporting systems, the goal remains elusive. A major barrier has been a lack of understanding by system designers of communicable disease (CD) work and the public health workers who perform this work. This study reports on the application of User Center Design representations, traditionally used for improving interface design, to translate the complex CD work identified through ethnographic studies to guide designers and developers of CD systems. The purpose of this work is to: (1) better understand public health practitioners and their information workflow with respect to communicable disease (CD) monitoring and control at a local health department, and (2) to develop evidence-based design representations that model this CD work to inform the design of future disease surveillance systems. Methods We performed extensive onsite semi-structured interviews, targeted work shadowing and a focus group to characterize local health department communicable disease workflow. Informed by principles of design ethnography and user-centered design (UCD) we created persona, scenarios and user stories to accurately represent the user to system designers. Results We sought to convey to designers the key findings from ethnographic studies: 1) that public health CD work is mobile and episodic, in contrast to current CD reporting systems, which are stationary and fixed 2) health department efforts are focused on CD investigation and response rather than reporting and 3) current CD information systems must conform to PH workflow to ensure their usefulness. In an effort to illustrate our findings to designers, we developed three contemporary design-support representations: persona, scenario, and user story. Conclusions Through application of user centered design principles, we were able to create design representations that illustrate complex public health communicable

Hybrid Map-Based Navigation Method for Unmanned Ground Vehicle in Urban Scenario

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiyan Chen

2013-07-01

Full Text Available To reduce the data size of metric map and map matching computational cost in unmanned ground vehicle self-driving navigation in urban scenarios, a metric-topological hybrid map navigation system is proposed in this paper. According to the different positioning accuracy requirements, urban areas are divided into strong constraint (SC areas, such as roads with lanes, and loose constraint (LC areas, such as intersections and open areas. As direction of the self-driving vehicle is provided by traffic lanes and global waypoints in the road network, a simple topological map is fit for the navigation in the SC areas. While in the LC areas, the navigation of the self-driving vehicle mainly relies on the positioning information. Simultaneous localization and mapping technology is used to provide a detailed metric map in the LC areas, and a window constraint Markov localization algorithm is introduced to achieve accurate position using laser scanner. Furthermore, the real-time performance of the Markov algorithm is enhanced by using a constraint window to restrict the size of the state space. By registering the metric maps into the road network, a hybrid map of the urban scenario can be constructed. Real unmanned vehicle mapping and navigation tests demonstrated the capabilities of the proposed method.

Increasing Plant Based Foods or Dairy Foods Differentially Affects Nutrient Intakes: Dietary Scenarios Using NHANES 2007–2010

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christopher J. Cifelli

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Diets rich in plant foods and lower in animal-based products have garnered increased attention among researchers, dietitians and health professionals in recent years for their potential to, not only improve health, but also to lessen the environmental impact. However, the potential effects of increasing plant-based foods at the expense of animal-based foods on macro- and micronutrient nutrient adequacy in the U.S. diet is unknown. In addition, dairy foods are consistently under consumed, thus the impact of increased dairy on nutrient adequacy is important to measure. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to use national survey data to model three different dietary scenarios to assess the effects of increasing plant-based foods or dairy foods on macronutrient intake and nutrient adequacy. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2007–2010 for persons two years and older (n = 17,387 were used in all the analyses. Comparisons were made of usual intake of macronutrients and shortfall nutrients of three dietary scenarios that increased intakes by 100%: (i plant-based foods; (ii protein-rich plant-based foods (i.e., legumes, nuts, seeds, soy; and (iii milk, cheese and yogurt. Scenarios (i and (ii had commensurate reductions in animal product intake. In both children (2–18 years and adults (≥19 years, the percent not meeting the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR decreased for vitamin C, magnesium, vitamin E, folate and iron when plant-based foods were increased. However the percent not meeting the EAR increased for calcium, protein, vitamin A, and vitamin D in this scenario. Doubling protein-rich plant-based foods had no effect on nutrient intake because they were consumed in very low quantities in the baseline diet. The dairy model reduced the percent not meeting the EAR for calcium, vitamin A, vitamin D, magnesium, and protein, while sodium and saturated fat levels increased. Our modeling shows that

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE SCENARIOS METHODOLOGY FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS DURING TIMES OF CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Roberto Correa Leão

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Recently, the need to apply strategic planning methodologies in business has risen, since corporations are part of a globalized world in which technological change and economic dynamism are evolving at a faster pace. Thus, firms must perform not only efficiently but also effectively in adapting to changes as they occur in the political, economic, technological, legal and environmental dimensions. This dictates the need for new strategic organizational positioning. The potential usefulness of the scenarios methodology was investigated for a sample of financial institutions with assets in the Brazilian market, based on management reports and in accordance with strategic dimensions needed to cope with crises. Therefore, we propose a new methodology for the qualitative analysis of official management reports, which indicates a perception of scenario building within organizations. The results suggest a positive relationship between the quality of the process of generating scenarios and the financial results of the banking institution. Key-words: Scenarios. Financial institutions. Crisis. 

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

1999-01-01

The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

Demand scenarios, worldwide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

1996-11-01

Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

Strategies of modeling the cognitive tasks of human operators for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheon, Se Woo; Sur, Sang Moon; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Jeong Wun

1993-01-01

This paper presents the development strategies of cognitive task network modeling for accident scenarios in nuclear power plant control rooms. Task network modeling is used to provide useful predictions of operator's performance times and error rates, based upon plant procedures and/or control room changes. Two accident scenarios, small-break loss of coolant accident (LOCA) and steam generator tube rupture (SGTR), are selected for task simulation. To obtain the input data for the model, task elements are extracted by the task analysis of emergency operating procedures. The input data include task performance time, communication ink, panel location, component operating mode, and data for performance shaping factors (PSFs). Operator's verbs are categorized according to the elements of cognitive behavior. The simulation of the task network for the small-break LOCA scenario is presented in this paper. (Author)

Development of Accident Scenario for Interim Spent Fuel Storage Facility Based on Fukushima Accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Dongjin; Choi, Kwangsoon; Yoon, Hyungjoon; Park, Jungsu [KEPCO-E and C, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

700 MTU of spent nuclear fuel is discharged from nuclear fleet every year and spent fuel storage is currently 70.9% full. The on-site wet type spent fuel storage pool of each NPP(nuclear power plants) in Korea will shortly exceed its storage limit. Backdrop, the Korean government has rolled out a plan to construct an interim spent fuel storage facility by 2024. However, the type of interim spent fuel storage facility has not been decided yet in detail. The Fukushima accident has resulted in more stringent requirements for nuclear facilities in case of beyond design basis accidents. Therefore, there has been growing demand for developing scenario on interim storage facility to prepare for beyond design basis accidents and conducting dose assessment based on the scenario to verify the safety of each type of storage.

Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

2010-07-01

Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parson, E A

2008-01-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

[New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

2012-07-01

With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

Games and Scenarios for Real-Time System Validation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Shuhao

This thesis presents research on the validation of real-time embedded software systems in the context of model-based development. The thesis proposes scenario-based and game-theoretic approaches to system analysis, verification, synthesis and testing to address the challenges that arise from....... By linking our prototype translators with existing model checker Uppaal and game solver Uppaal-Tiga, we show that these methods contribute to the interaction correctness and timeliness of early system designs. The thesis also shows that testing a real-time reactive system can be viewed as playing a timed...... communicating real-time systems can be modeled and specified with LSC. By translating LSC to timed automata (TAs), we reduce scenario-based model consistency checking and property verification to CTL real-time model checking problems, and reduce scenario-based synthesis to a timed game solving problem...

Scenario Analysis of Natural Gas Consumption in China Based on Wavelet Neural Network Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deyun Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Natural gas consumption has increased with an average annual growth rate of about 10% between 2012 and 2017. Total natural gas consumption accounted for 6.4% of consumed primary energy resources in 2016, up from 5.4% in 2012, making China the world’s third-largest gas user. Therefore, accurately predicting natural gas consumption has become very important for market participants to organize indigenous production, foreign supply contracts and infrastructures in a better way. This paper first presents the main factors affecting China’s natural gas consumption, and then proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the particle swarm optimization algorithm and wavelet neural network (PSO-WNN. In PSO-WNN model, the initial weights and wavelet parameters are optimized using PSO algorithm and updated through a dynamic learning rate to improve the training speed, forecasting precision and reduce fluctuation of WNN. The experimental results show the superiority of the proposed model compared with ANN and WNN based models. Then, this study conducts the scenario analysis of the natural gas consumption from 2017 to 2025 in China based on three scenarios, namely low scenario, reference scenario and high scenario, and the results illustrate that the China’s natural gas consumption is going to be 342.70, 358.27, 366.42 million tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent in 2020, and 407.01, 437.95, 461.38 million tce in 2025 under the low, reference and high scenarios, respectively. Finally, this paper provides some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure construction and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

Feasibility study of advanced operation scenario in KSTAR using CRONOS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.-S.; Na, Y.-S.; Bae, Y.S.; Jeon, Y.M.; Kim, S.H.; Artaud, J.-F.

2014-01-01

We report the results of predictive modelling of advanced operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the operation windows are produced to explore the KSTAR advanced scenarios in the condition of upgrading H/CD mix. Using METIS code, the rough ranges of operation condition of I_P and B_T to utilize for the development of advanced operation scenario scenario are determined. Secondly, the advanced inductive and the advanced tokamak operation scenario of KSTAR are developing with the scaling based and the physics based transport model by using CRONOS to make a suggestion to on-going KSTAR experiment. Thirdly, the dependency of the time of L-H transition on q_0 an q_m_i_n is investigated for the advanced inductive operation scenario. These reliable results can become the useful database for exploring the advanced regime of KSTAR discharges in the future. (author)

Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

2010-01-01

Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

An Event-Based Approach to Design a Teamwork Training Scenario and Assessment Tool in Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Ngan; Watson, William D; Dominguez, Edward

2016-01-01

Simulation is a technique recommended for teaching and measuring teamwork, but few published methodologies are available on how best to design simulation for teamwork training in surgery and health care in general. The purpose of this article is to describe a general methodology, called event-based approach to training (EBAT), to guide the design of simulation for teamwork training and discuss its application to surgery. The EBAT methodology draws on the science of training by systematically introducing training exercise events that are linked to training requirements (i.e., competencies being trained and learning objectives) and performance assessment. The EBAT process involves: Of the 4 teamwork competencies endorsed by the Agency for Healthcare Research Quality and Department of Defense, "communication" was chosen to be the focus of our training efforts. A total of 5 learning objectives were defined based on 5 validated teamwork and communication techniques. Diagnostic laparoscopy was chosen as the clinical context to frame the training scenario, and 29 KSAs were defined based on review of published literature on patient safety and input from subject matter experts. Critical events included those that correspond to a specific phase in the normal flow of a surgical procedure as well as clinical events that may occur when performing the operation. Similar to the targeted KSAs, targeted responses to the critical events were developed based on existing literature and gathering input from content experts. Finally, a 29-item EBAT-derived checklist was created to assess communication performance. Like any instructional tool, simulation is only effective if it is designed and implemented appropriately. It is recognized that the effectiveness of simulation depends on whether (1) it is built upon a theoretical framework, (2) it uses preplanned structured exercises or events to allow learners the opportunity to exhibit the targeted KSAs, (3) it assesses performance, and (4

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

A Scenario-Based Process for Requirements Development: Application to Mission Operations Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bindschadler, Duane L.; Boyles, Carole A.

2008-01-01

The notion of using operational scenarios as part of requirements development during mission formulation (Phases A & B) is widely accepted as good system engineering practice. In the context of developing a Mission Operations System (MOS), there are numerous practical challenges to translating that notion into the cost-effective development of a useful set of requirements. These challenges can include such issues as a lack of Project-level focus on operations issues, insufficient or improper flowdown of requirements, flowdown of immature or poor-quality requirements from Project level, and MOS resource constraints (personnel expertise and/or dollars). System engineering theory must be translated into a practice that provides enough structure and standards to serve as guidance, but that retains sufficient flexibility to be tailored to the needs and constraints of a particular MOS or Project. We describe a detailed, scenario-based process for requirements development. Identifying a set of attributes for high quality requirements, we show how the portions of the process address many of those attributes. We also find that the basic process steps are robust, and can be effective even in challenging Project environments.

Measurement-Based Performance Evaluation of Advanced MIMO Transceiver Designs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schneider Christian

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper describes the methodology and the results of performance investigations on a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO transceiver scheme for frequency-selective radio channels. The method relies on offline simulations and employs real-time MIMO channel sounder measurement data to ensure a realistic channel modeling. Thus it can be classified in between the performance evaluation using some predefined channel models and the evaluation of a prototype hardware in field experiments. New aspects for the simulation setup are discussed, which are frequently ignored when using simpler model-based evaluations. Example simulations are provided for an iterative ("turbo" MIMO equalizer concept. The dependency of the achievable bit error rate performance on the propagation characteristics and on the variation in some system design parameters is shown, whereas the antenna constellation is of particular concern for MIMO systems. Although in many of the considered constellations turbo MIMO equalization appears feasible in real field scenarios, there exist cases with poor performance as well, indicating that in practical applications link adaptation of the transmitter and receiver processing to the environment is necessary.

Projecting the environmental profile of Singapore's landfill activities: Comparisons of present and future scenarios based on LCA.

Science.gov (United States)

Khoo, Hsien H; Tan, Lester L Z; Tan, Reginald B H

2012-05-01

This article aims to generate the environmental profile of Singapore's Semakau landfill by comparing three different operational options associated with the life cycle stages of landfilling activities, against a 'business as usual' scenario. Before life cycle assessment or LCA is used to quantify the potential impacts from landfilling activities, an attempt to incorporate localized and empirical information into the amounts of ash and MSW sent to the landfill was made. A linear regression representation of the relationship between the mass of waste disposed and the mass of incineration ash generated was modeled from waste statistics between years 2004 and 2009. Next, the mass of individual MSW components was projected from 2010 to 2030. The LCA results highlighted that in a 'business as usual' scenario the normalized total impacts of global warming, acidification and human toxicity increased by about 2% annually from 2011 to 2030. By replacing the 8000-tonne barge with a 10000-tonne coastal bulk carrier or freighter (in scenario 2) a grand total reduction of 48% of both global warming potential and acidification can be realized by year 2030. Scenario 3 explored the importance of having a Waste Water Treatment Plant in place to reduce human toxicity levels - however, the overall long-term benefits were not as significant as scenario 2. It is shown in scenario 4 that the option of increased recycling championed over all other three scenarios in the long run, resulting in a total 58% reduction in year 2030 for the total normalized results. A separate comparison of scenarios 1-4 is also carried out for energy utilization and land use in terms of volume of waste occupied. Along with the predicted reductions in environmental burdens, an additional bonus is found in the expanded lifespan of Semakau landfill from year 2032 (base case) to year 2039. Model limitations and suggestions for improvements were also discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constructing APT Attack Scenarios Based on Intrusion Kill Chain and Fuzzy Clustering

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Ru Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The APT attack on the Internet is becoming more serious, and most of intrusion detection systems can only generate alarms to some steps of APT attack and cannot identify the pattern of the APT attack. To detect APT attack, many researchers established attack models and then correlated IDS logs with the attack models. However, the accuracy of detection deeply relied on the integrity of models. In this paper, we propose a new method to construct APT attack scenarios by mining IDS security logs. These APT attack scenarios can be further used for the APT detection. First, we classify all the attack events by purpose of phase of the intrusion kill chain. Then we add the attack event dimension to fuzzy clustering, correlate IDS alarm logs with fuzzy clustering, and generate the attack sequence set. Next, we delete the bug attack sequences to clean the set. Finally, we use the nonaftereffect property of probability transfer matrix to construct attack scenarios by mining the attack sequence set. Experiments show that the proposed method can construct the APT attack scenarios by mining IDS alarm logs, and the constructed scenarios match the actual situation so that they can be used for APT attack detection.

Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elisa Oteros-Rozas

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

Map-Based Channel Model for Urban Macrocell Propagation Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jose F. Monserrat

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The evolution of LTE towards 5G has started and different research projects and institutions are in the process of verifying new technology components through simulations. Coordination between groups is strongly recommended and, in this sense, a common definition of test cases and simulation models is needed. The scope of this paper is to present a realistic channel model for urban macrocell scenarios. This model is map-based and takes into account the layout of buildings situated in the area under study. A detailed description of the model is given together with a comparison with other widely used channel models. The benchmark includes a measurement campaign in which the proposed model is shown to be much closer to the actual behavior of a cellular system. Particular attention is given to the outdoor component of the model, since it is here where the proposed approach is showing main difference with other previous models.

Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET structured skills training in Armenia, utilising models and reality based scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Israelyan Musheg

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality rates in Western Europe have fallen significantly over the last 50 years. Maternal mortality now averages 10 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births but in some of the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union, the ratio is nearly 4 times higher. The availability of skilled attendants to prevent, detect and manage major obstetric complications may be the single most important factor in preventing maternal deaths. A modern, multidisciplinary, scenario and model based training programme has been established in the UK (Managing Obstetric Emergencies and Trauma (MOET and allows specialist obstetricians to learn or revise the undertaking of procedures using models, and to have their skills tested in scenarios. Methods Given the success of the MOET course in the UK, the organisers were keen to evaluate it in another setting (Armenia. Pre-course knowledge and practice questionnaires were administered. In an exploratory analysis, post-course results were compared to pre-course answers obtained by the same interviewer. Results All candidates showed an improvement in post-course scores. The range was far narrower afterwards (167–188 than before (85–129.5. In the individual score analysis only two scenarios showed a non-significant change (cord prolapse and breech delivery. Conclusion This paper demonstrates the reliability of the model based scenarios, with a highly significant improvement in obstetric emergency management. However, clinical audit will be required to measure the full impact of training by longer term follow up. Audit of delays, specific obstetric complications, referrals and near misses may all be amenable to review.

ICUD-0530 Scenario based risk assessment of the dispersion of E-coli from combined sewer overflow to a fresh-water lake

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk

2017-01-01

A scenario based risk assessment method is used to evaluate how combined sewer overflow (CSO) affects a nearby bathing beach in Skanderborg, Denmark. The method combines an urban drainage model with a 3D CFD model to pre-simulate 60 different scenarios, used for assessing the risk of poor bathing...

Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

2015-01-01

Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

The joint SKI/SKB scenario development project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, Johan

1989-12-01

The Swedish Nuclear Power and Swedish Nuclear Waste Management Co. have carried through a joint scenario development exercise of a hypothetical repository for spent fuel and high level waste based on the KBS-3 concept as disposal method. The starting point has been the 'Sandia methodology', but the actual implementation of the steps in this method has required new strategy development. The work started with a relatively large internationally composed group meeting, which identified an extensive list of features, events and processes (FEPs) that might influence the long term performance of a repository. All these FEPs as well as its possible causes and consequences have been entered into a computer database. The next step in the development was to remove from the list approximately 30 FEPs of low probability or negligible consequence. In a following step a large number of the FEPs on the original list were assigned to the 'PROCESS SYSTEM', comprising the complete set of 'deterministic' chemical and physical processes that might influence the release from the repository to the biosphere. A scenario is defined by a set of external conditions which will influence the processes in the PROCESS SYSTEM. Approximately 50 FEPs were left representing external conditions. The remaining FEPs could all be combined to form scenarios, but it is concluded that it is not meaningful to discuss combinations without first analysing the consequence and probability of the individual conditions. An important aspect of the work is that the developed strategy includes a framework for the documentation of the complete chain of scenario development. Such a transparent documentation makes possible an extensive review and updating of the set of scenarios. A reviewing process, open to very broad groups in the society, is probably the best means of assuring reasonable completeness and of building up a general consensus on what are the critical issues for the safe disposal of radioactive waste

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO 2 -eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO 2 -eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120–140 Tg CO 2 -eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power. (letter)

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

Science.gov (United States)

Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

1994-03-01

The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stroeve, Sybert H.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Bakker, G.J.

2013-01-01

In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

Two graphical user interfaces for managing and analyzing MODFLOW groundwater-model scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Banta, Edward R.

2014-01-01

Scenario Manager and Scenario Analyzer are graphical user interfaces that facilitate the use of calibrated, MODFLOW-based groundwater models for investigating possible responses to proposed stresses on a groundwater system. Scenario Manager allows a user, starting with a calibrated model, to design and run model scenarios by adding or modifying stresses simulated by the model. Scenario Analyzer facilitates the process of extracting data from model output and preparing such display elements as maps, charts, and tables. Both programs are designed for users who are familiar with the science on which groundwater modeling is based but who may not have a groundwater modeler’s expertise in building and calibrating a groundwater model from start to finish. With Scenario Manager, the user can manipulate model input to simulate withdrawal or injection wells, time-variant specified hydraulic heads, recharge, and such surface-water features as rivers and canals. Input for stresses to be simulated comes from user-provided geographic information system files and time-series data files. A Scenario Manager project can contain multiple scenarios and is self-documenting. Scenario Analyzer can be used to analyze output from any MODFLOW-based model; it is not limited to use with scenarios generated by Scenario Manager. Model-simulated values of hydraulic head, drawdown, solute concentration, and cell-by-cell flow rates can be presented in display elements. Map data can be represented as lines of equal value (contours) or as a gradated color fill. Charts and tables display time-series data obtained from output generated by a transient-state model run or from user-provided text files of time-series data. A display element can be based entirely on output of a single model run, or, to facilitate comparison of results of multiple scenarios, an element can be based on output from multiple model runs. Scenario Analyzer can export display elements and supporting metadata as a Portable

Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

2003-01-01

A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

Innovative TRU Burners and Fuel Cycles Options for Phase-Out and Regional Scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vezzoni, B.; Gabrielli, F.; Rineiski, A.; Schwenk-Ferrero, A.; Andriolo, L.; Maschek, W.

2015-01-01

Partitioning and transmutation (P and T) technologies may be considered either for minor actinides (MAs) inventory stabilisation (typical for on-going/regional scenarios) or for a drastic reduction of the transuranics inventory (as in phasing-out scenarios). In this paper, two sodium-cooled fast reactor cores, based on the French ASTRID design and characterised by different amounts of MAs in the fuel, are proposed. Attention focuses on the safety and on the burning performances of the systems. The behaviour of the systems under dynamic conditions has been investigated considering phasing-out and on-going fuel cycle scenarios. The results demonstrate the flexibility of such systems when employed in different kinds of fuel cycles. The impact of different parameters, such as the initial isotopic vector (and Cm content) and the cooling time before reprocessing, on the simulation results is investigated as well. (authors)

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Measurement-based performance profiles and dynamics of UDT over dedicated connections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Foster, Ian [University of Chicago; Kettimuthu, R. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Wu, Qishi [University of Memphis; Yun, Daqing [Harrisburg University; Rao, Nageswara S. [ORNL; Liu, Qiang [ORNL

2016-11-01

Wide-area data transfers in high-performance computing and big data scenarios are increasingly being carried over dedicated network connections that provide high capacities at low loss rates. UDP-based transport protocols are expected to be particularly well-suited for such transfers but their performance is relatively unexplored over a wide range of connection lengths, compared to TCP over shared connections. We present extensive throughput measurements of UDP-based Data Transfer (UDT) over a suite of physical and emulated 10 Gbps connections. In sharp contrast to current UDT analytical models, these measurements indicate much more complex throughput dynamics that are sensitive to the connection modality, protocol parameters, and round-trip times. Lyapunov exponents estimated from the Poincare maps of UDT traces clearly indicate regions of instability and complex dynamics. We propose a simple model based on the ramp-up and sustainment regimes of a generic transport protocol, which qualitatively illustrates the dominant monotonicity and concavity properties of throughput profiles and relates them to Lyapunov exponents. These measurements and analytical results together enable us to comprehensively evaluate UDT performance and select parameters to achieve high throughput, and they also provide guidelines for designing effective transport protocols for dedicated connections.

Real-Time Emulation of Nonstationary Channels in Safety-Relevant Vehicular Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Golsa Ghiaasi

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes and discusses the architecture for a real-time vehicular channel emulator capable of reproducing the input/output behavior of nonstationary time-variant radio propagation channels in safety-relevant vehicular scenarios. The vehicular channel emulator architecture aims at a hardware implementation which requires minimal hardware complexity for emulating channels with the varying delay-Doppler characteristics of safety-relevant vehicular scenarios. The varying delay-Doppler characteristics require real-time updates to the multipath propagation model for each local stationarity region. The vehicular channel emulator is used for benchmarking the packet error performance of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS vehicular IEEE 802.11p modems and a fully software-defined radio-based IEEE 802.11p modem stack. The packet error ratio (PER estimated from temporal averaging over a single virtual drive and the packet error probability (PEP estimated from ensemble averaging over repeated virtual drives are evaluated and compared for the same vehicular scenario. The proposed architecture is realized as a virtual instrument on National Instruments™ LabVIEW. The National Instrument universal software radio peripheral with reconfigurable input-output (USRP-Rio 2953R is used as the software-defined radio platform for implementation; however, the results and considerations reported are of general purpose and can be applied to other platforms. Finally, we discuss the PER performance of the modem for two categories of vehicular channel models: a vehicular nonstationary channel model derived for urban single lane street crossing scenario of the DRIVEWAY’09 measurement campaign and the stationary ETSI models.

The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, R.L.

1988-01-01

Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

2007-01-01

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

A poor sealing Scenario for Deep disposal of high level waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weetjens, E.

2005-01-01

Especially for geological disposal options in clay, the safety of the repository relies chiefly on the performance of the host formation as the main barrier. Understandably, scenarios in which this clay barrier is somehow bypassed earn great concern in PA (Performance Assessment) studies. The Poor Sealing Scenario is one of those scenarios that have been recently studied by the PA section of the Waste and Disposal department in the framework of the Belgian programme on deep disposal of high-level radwaste in Boom Clay. This scenario hypothesises that at least one disposal gallery and an access shaft have been poorly sealed off, providing a preferential pathway for RNs (radionuclides). The scenario further assumes a severe climate change, which would invert the presently downward hydraulic gradient, such that the potential impact would be maximal. The main objective is assessing the contribution from two transport processes to the overall radionuclide migration from a spent fuel repository towards the Neogene aquifer. The processes considered are advective transport through the poorly sealed repository and diffusive transport through the host formation. In addition, we would like to identify the most influential parameters with respect to repository design and performance

Preparatory Work for a Scenario-Based Electricity Expansion Plan for North Korea after Hypothetical Reunification using WASP-IV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Young Joo; Chang, Choong Koo [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

It is noteworthy that North Korean government itself has demanded other parties' cooperation in the field of power sector as the top priority to deal with North Korean own economic issues. In this light, the researcher consider that how to build power capacity in North Korean area after reunification needs to be studied with priority. A scenario-based approach is being adopted, and three scenarios are proposed: Scenario increasing capacity at 2.4% annual rate, Imitating South Korean electricity expansion history, and reaching 80% of South Korean Annual Peak Load in 35 years. In order to carry out the research, WASP-IV (Wien Automation System Planning-IV) code developed by IAEA is, with reasonable assumptions, being executed. Annual Peak Load prediction for each scenario, load duration curve, and existing power generating facilities in North Korea are presented herein. This research is being conducted as a preparatory work for the further study. IAEA's WASP-IV is adopted for a scenario-based electricity expansion plan for North Korea after hypothetical reunification between Koreas. Input data including Annual Peak Load, load duration curve, and existing facilities are built and presented. Additional future research includes inputting candidate plants data, cost data such as construction period, operation and maintenance costs, and fuel costs, as well as decommissioning of aged power plants in North Korea to complete WASP-IV execution. Assuming reunification, electricity expansion plan would need to integrate North and South Koreas demands and facilities. However, this research narrows down its scope to North Korean demand and facilities only. Such integrated simulation could be the topic for the later research. This work was supported by the 2014 Research Fund of the KINGS.

Preparatory Work for a Scenario-Based Electricity Expansion Plan for North Korea after Hypothetical Reunification using WASP-IV

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Young Joo; Chang, Choong Koo

2014-01-01

It is noteworthy that North Korean government itself has demanded other parties' cooperation in the field of power sector as the top priority to deal with North Korean own economic issues. In this light, the researcher consider that how to build power capacity in North Korean area after reunification needs to be studied with priority. A scenario-based approach is being adopted, and three scenarios are proposed: Scenario increasing capacity at 2.4% annual rate, Imitating South Korean electricity expansion history, and reaching 80% of South Korean Annual Peak Load in 35 years. In order to carry out the research, WASP-IV (Wien Automation System Planning-IV) code developed by IAEA is, with reasonable assumptions, being executed. Annual Peak Load prediction for each scenario, load duration curve, and existing power generating facilities in North Korea are presented herein. This research is being conducted as a preparatory work for the further study. IAEA's WASP-IV is adopted for a scenario-based electricity expansion plan for North Korea after hypothetical reunification between Koreas. Input data including Annual Peak Load, load duration curve, and existing facilities are built and presented. Additional future research includes inputting candidate plants data, cost data such as construction period, operation and maintenance costs, and fuel costs, as well as decommissioning of aged power plants in North Korea to complete WASP-IV execution. Assuming reunification, electricity expansion plan would need to integrate North and South Koreas demands and facilities. However, this research narrows down its scope to North Korean demand and facilities only. Such integrated simulation could be the topic for the later research. This work was supported by the 2014 Research Fund of the KINGS

Depiction of priority light-vehicle pre-crash scenarios for safety applications based on vehicle-to-vehicle communications

Science.gov (United States)

2013-04-30

A template of pre-crash scenarios is presented to depict national crash statistics and kinematic information of time-to-collision for the design of appropriate crash countermeasures based on vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications. This template serv...

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

2014-12-01

The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon P. Sadler

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

Performance Evaluation of Received Signal Strength Based Hard Handover for UTRAN LTE

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anas, Mohmmad; Calabrese, Francesco Davide; Mogensen, Preben

2007-01-01

This paper evaluates the hard handover performance for UTRAN LTE system. The focus is on the impact that received signal strength based hard handover algorithm have on the system performance measured in terms of number of handovers, time between two consecutive handovers and uplink SINR for a user...... about to experience a handover. A handover algorithm based on received signal strength measurements has been designed and implemented in a dynamic system level simulator and has been studied for different parameter sets in a 3GPP UTRAN LTE recommended simulation scenario. The results suggest...... that a downlink measurement bandwidth of 1.25 MHz and a handover margin of 2 dB to 6 dB are the parameters that will lead to the best compromise between average number of handovers and average uplink SINR for user speeds of 3 kmph to 120 kmph....

Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

Science.gov (United States)

Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

2014-12-01

Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krivtchik, Guillaume

2014-01-01

Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

2011-12-01

A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

1990-01-01

Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees

Validity Evidence for a Serious Game to Assess Performance on Critical Pediatric Emergency Medicine Scenarios.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerard, James M; Scalzo, Anthony J; Borgman, Matthew A; Watson, Christopher M; Byrnes, Chelsie E; Chang, Todd P; Auerbach, Marc; Kessler, David O; Feldman, Brian L; Payne, Brian S; Nibras, Sohail; Chokshi, Riti K; Lopreiato, Joseph O

2018-01-26

We developed a first-person serious game, PediatricSim, to teach and assess performances on seven critical pediatric scenarios (anaphylaxis, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, respiratory failure, seizure, septic shock, and supraventricular tachycardia). In the game, players are placed in the role of a code leader and direct patient management by selecting from various assessment and treatment options. The objective of this study was to obtain supportive validity evidence for the PediatricSim game scores. Game content was developed by 11 subject matter experts and followed the American Heart Association's 2011 Pediatric Advanced Life Support Provider Manual and other authoritative references. Sixty subjects with three different levels of experience were enrolled to play the game. Before game play, subjects completed a 40-item written pretest of knowledge. Game scores were compared between subject groups using scoring rubrics developed for the scenarios. Validity evidence was established and interpreted according to Messick's framework. Content validity was supported by a game development process that involved expert experience, focused literature review, and pilot testing. Subjects rated the game favorably for engagement, realism, and educational value. Interrater agreement on game scoring was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91, 95% confidence interval = 0.89-0.9). Game scores were higher for attendings followed by residents then medical students (Pc game and written test scores (r = 0.84, P game scores to assess knowledge of pediatric emergency medicine resuscitation.

A model of negotiation scenarios based on time, relevance andcontrol used to define advantageous positions in a negotiation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omar Guillermo Rojas Altamirano

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Models that apply to negotiation are based on different perspectives that range from the relationship between the actors, game theory or the steps in a procedure. This research proposes a model of negotiation scenarios that considers three factors (time, relevance and control, which are displayed as the most important in a negotiation. These factors interact with each other and create different scenarios for each of the actors involved in a negotiation. The proposed model not only facilitates the creation of a negotiation strategy but also an ideal choice of effective tactics.

Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

2018-02-01

Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

2016-01-01

Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vanessa M Adams

Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-12-31

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Earthquake Scenario-Based Tsunami Wave Heights in the Eastern Mediterranean and Connected Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Necmioglu, Ocal; Özel, Nurcan Meral

2015-12-01

We identified a set of tsunami scenario input parameters in a 0.5° × 0.5° uniformly gridded area in the Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean (both for shallow- and intermediate-depth earthquakes) and Black Seas (only shallow earthquakes) and calculated tsunami scenarios using the SWAN-Joint Research Centre (SWAN-JRC) code ( Mader 2004; Annunziato 2007) with 2-arcmin resolution bathymetry data for the range of 6.5—Mwmax with an Mw increment of 0.1 at each grid in order to realize a comprehensive analysis of tsunami wave heights from earthquakes originating in the region. We defined characteristic earthquake source parameters from a compiled set of sources such as existing moment tensor catalogues and various reference studies, together with the Mwmax assigned in the literature, where possible. Results from 2,415 scenarios show that in the Eastern Mediterranean and its connected seas (Aegean and Black Sea), shallow earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.5 may result in coastal wave heights of 0.5 m, whereas the same wave height would be expected only from intermediate-depth earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7.0 . The distribution of maximum wave heights calculated indicate that tsunami wave heights up to 1 m could be expected in the northern Aegean, whereas in the Black Sea, Cyprus, Levantine coasts, northern Libya, eastern Sicily, southern Italy, and western Greece, up to 3-m wave height could be possible. Crete, the southern Aegean, and the area between northeast Libya and Alexandria (Egypt) is prone to maximum tsunami wave heights of >3 m. Considering that calculations are performed at a minimum bathymetry depth of 20 m, these wave heights may, according to Green's Law, be amplified by a factor of 2 at the coastline. The study can provide a basis for detailed tsunami hazard studies in the region.

Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc

2013-01-01

By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is

Automatic generation control of TCPS based hydrothermal system under open market scenario: A fuzzy logic approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rao, C. Srinivasa [EEE Department, G. Pulla Reddy Engineering College, Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh (India); Nagaraju, S. Siva [EEE Department, J.N.T.U College of Engg., Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh (India); Raju, P. Sangameswara [EEE Department, S.V. University, Tirupati, Andhra Pradesh (India)

2009-09-15

This paper presents the analysis of automatic generation control of a two-area interconnected thyristor controlled phase shifter based hydrothermal system in the continuous mode using fuzzy logic controller under open market scenario. Open transmission access and the evolving of more socialized companies for generation, transmission and distribution affects the formulation of AGC problem. So the traditional AGC two-area system is modified to take into account the effect of bilateral contracts on the dynamics. It is possible to stabilize the system frequency and tie-power oscillations by controlling the phase angle of TCPS which is expected to provide a new ancillary service for the future power systems. A control strategy using TCPS is proposed to provide active control of system frequency. Further dynamic responses for small perturbation considering fuzzy logic controller and PI controller (dual mode controller) have been observed and the superior performance of fuzzy logic controller has been reported analytically and also through simulation. (author)

Performance Evaluation of Bidding-Based Multi-Agent Scheduling Algorithms for Manufacturing Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Gordillo

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Artificial Intelligence techniques have being applied to many problems in manufacturing systems in recent years. In the specific field of manufacturing scheduling many studies have been published trying to cope with the complexity of the manufacturing environment. One of the most utilized approaches is (multi agent-based scheduling. Nevertheless, despite the large list of studies reported in this field, there is no resource or scientific study on the performance measure of this type of approach under very common and critical execution situations. This paper focuses on multi-agent systems (MAS based algorithms for task allocation, particularly in manufacturing applications. The goal is to provide a mechanism to measure the performance of agent-based scheduling approaches for manufacturing systems under key critical situations such as: dynamic environment, rescheduling, and priority change. With this mechanism it will be possible to simulate critical situations and to stress the system in order to measure the performance of a given agent-based scheduling method. The proposed mechanism is a pioneering approach for performance evaluation of bidding-based MAS approaches for manufacturing scheduling. The proposed method and evaluation methodology can be used to run tests in different manufacturing floors since it is independent of the workshop configuration. Moreover, the evaluation results presented in this paper show the key factors and scenarios that most affect the market-like MAS approaches for manufacturing scheduling.

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

Science.gov (United States)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

An empirical study of DSRC V2V performance in truck platooning scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Song Gao

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Among many safety applications enabled by Dedicated Short Range Communication (DSRC, truck platooning provides many incentives to commercial companies. This paper studies DSRC Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V performance in truck platooning scenarios through real-world experiments. Commercial DSRC equipments and semi-trailer trucks are used in this study. We mount one DSRC antenna on each side of the truck. One set of dynamic tests and a few sets of static tests are conducted to explore DSRC behaviors under different situations. From the test results, we verified some of our speculations. For example, hilly roads can affect delivery ratio and antennas mounted on opposite sides of a truck can suffer from low delivery ratio at curved roads. In addition, we also found that antennas can sometimes suffer from low delivery ratio even when the trucks are on straight roads, possibly due to reflections from the nearby terrain. Fortunately, the delivery ratio can be greatly improved by using the two side antennas alternately.

Expected dose for the early failure scenario classes in the 2008 performance assessment for the proposed high-level radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, J.C.; Hansen, C.W.; Sallaberry, C.J.

2014-01-01

Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In support of this development and an associated license application to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the DOE completed an extensive performance assessment (PA) for the proposed YM repository in 2008. This presentation describes the determination of expected dose to the reasonably maximally exposed individual (RMEI) specified in the NRC regulations for the YM repository for the early waste package (WP) failure scenario class and the early drip shield (DS) failure scenario class in the 2008 YM PA. The following topics are addressed: (i) properties of the early failure scenario classes and the determination of dose and expected dose the RMEI, (ii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early WP failure scenario class, (iii) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the early DS failure scenario class, (iv) expected dose and uncertainty in expected dose to the RMEI from the combined early WP and early DS failure scenario class with and without the inclusion of failures resulting from nominal processes, and (v) uncertainty in the occurrence of early failure scenario classes. The present article is part of a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety devoted to the 2008 YM PA; additional articles in the issue describe other aspects of the 2008 YM PA. - Highlights: • Extensive work has been carried out by the U.S. DOE in the development of a proposed geologic repository at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada, for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. • Properties of the early failure scenario classes (i.e. early waste package failure and early drip shield failure) in the 2008 YM performance assessment are described. • Determination of dose, expected dose and expected (mean

An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gbadebo Oladosu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007 were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transition to advanced biofuels begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. All scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term benefits for the USA economy.

Systematic approach to scenario development using FEP analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, L.E.E.; Lever, D.A.

2001-01-01

UK regulatory requirements require that the 'assessed radiological risk ... to a representative member of the potentially exposed group at greatest risk should be consistent with a risk target of 10 -6 per year' and that risks should be 'summed over all situations that could give rise to exposure to the group'. It is a further requirement that a repository performance assessment provides a 'comprehensive record of the judgements and assumptions on which the risk assessments are based'. In order to meet these requirements, Nirex, working with AEA Technology, has developed an approach to performance assessment based on the identification and analysis of features, events and processes (FEPs). The objectives of the approach are to provide a comprehensive, traceable and clear presentation of a performance assessment for a deep geological radioactive waste repository. The approach to scenario development is fundamental to the overall Nirex strategy for performance assessment, eventually leading to a repository safety case for regulatory submission. This paper outlines the main concepts of the approach, illustrated with examples of work undertaken by Nirex to demonstrate its practicality. Due to the current status of the Nirex repository programme, the approach has not yet been used to conduct a full performance assessment of a repository located at a specific site. (authors)

Scenario Development Workshop Synopsis. Integration Group for the Safety Case - June 2015

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Paul; Voinis, Sylvie; Griffault, Lise; De Meredieu, Jean; Kwong, Gloria; ); Van Luik, Abraham; Bailey, Lucy; Capouet, Manuel; Depaus, Christophe; Makino, Hitoshi; Leigh, Christi; Kirkes, Ross; Leino, Jaakko; Niemeyer, Matthias; Wolf, Jens; Watson, Sarah; Franke, Bettina; Ilett, Doug; Pastina, Barbara; Weetjens, Eef

2016-03-01

Scenario development and selection describes the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information relevant to the potential paths of evolution of a radioactive waste disposal facility (repository) that is necessary to assess its long-term performance and safety. In 1999, the NEA held its first workshop on scenario development in Madrid, Spain, with the objective to review the methods for developing scenarios in safety assessments and their application. Since then, the process of scenario development and analysis for the disposal of radioactive waste has changed and, in 2015, the NEA Integration Group for the Safety Case (IGSC) held a second workshop on this topic at its offices in Paris to further evaluate the experience acquired in developing scenarios since 1999. To prepare for this workshop, the IGSC also launched a survey in 2014 to gather the latest scenario development and uncertainty management strategies used in IGSC member countries. The purposes of the workshop were to (i) provide a forum to review and discuss methods for scenario development and their contribution to the development of recent safety cases (since the 1999 workshop); (ii) examine the latest methods and compare their scope, consistency and function within the overall safety assessment process, based on practical experience of applications; and (iii) provide a basis for producing the present report summarising the current status of scenario methodologies, identifying where sufficient methods exist and any outstanding problem areas. This report provides an overview of the state of the art in scenario development related to the long-term safety of geological repositories for radioactive waste. In particular, it discusses how potential scenarios are developed in safety assessments of radioactive waste that contains long-lived radionuclides. Safety assessment is the process of quantitatively and qualitatively evaluating the safety of a repository, often in support of a

Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

1990-09-01

This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs

Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.

1984-11-01

This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab

Update of the HL-LHC operational scenarios for proton operation

CERN Document Server

Metral, Elias; Antoniou, Fanouria; Appleby, Robert Barrie; Arduini, Gianluigi; Barranco Garcia, Javier; Baudrenghien, Philippe; Biancacci, Nicolo; Bracco, Chiara; Bruce, Roderik; Buffat, Xavier; Calaga, Rama; Carver, Lee Robert; Chapochnikova, Elena; Crouch, Matthew Paul; De Maria, Riccardo; Fartoukh, Stephane; Gamba, Davide; Giovannozzi, Massimo; Goncalves Jorge, Patrik; Hofle, Wolfgang; Iadarola, Giovanni; Karastathis, Nikos; Lasheen, Alexandre; Mastoridis, Themistoklis; Medina Medrano, Luis Eduardo; Mereghetti, Alessio; Mirarchi, Daniele; Muratori, Bruno; Papadopoulou, Parthena Stefania; Papaphilippou, Yannis; Pellegrini, Dario; Pieloni, Tatiana; Redaelli, Stefano; Rumolo, Giovanni; Salvant, Benoit; Solfaroli Camillocci, Matteo; Tambasco, Claudia; Tomas Garcia, Rogelio; Valuch, Daniel; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

2018-01-01

The main aim of this document is to have a clearly identified set of beam and machine parameters to be used for numerical simulations and performance assessment. Two scenarios (referring only to the operation at the nominal beam energy of 7 TeV) are discussed: i) Nominal scenario (levelling at a luminosity of 5E34 cm-2s-1) ii) Ultimate scenario (levelling at a luminosity of 7.5E34 cm-2s-1)

Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-12-01

Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios sits within Posiva Oy's Safety Case 'TURVA-2012' report portfolio and has the objective of presenting an assessment of the repository system scenarios leading to radionuclide releases that have been identified in Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios. A base scenario, variant scenarios and disturbance scenarios are considered. For each scenario, a range of calculation cases, also identified in Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios, has been analysed, complemented by Monte Carlo simulations, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and other supporting calculations. The calculation cases and analyses take into account major uncertainties in the initial state of the barriers and possible paths for the evolution of the repository system identified in Performance Assessment. Quality control and assurance measures have been adopted to ensure transparency and traceability of the calculations performed and hence to promote confidence in the analysis of the calculation cases. The calculation cases each consider a single, failed canister, where three possible modes of failure are addressed: (1) the presence of an initial penetrating defect in the copper overpack of the canister, (2) corrosion of the copper overpack, which occurs most rapidly in scenarios in which buffer density is reduced, e.g. by erosion, (3) shear movement on a fracture intersecting a deposition hole. The likelihood and consequences of multiple canister failure occurring during the assessment time frame are also considered. In particular, the analyses consider: The likelihood and consequences of there being multiple canisters with initial penetrating defects; The consequences if canister failure due to corrosion following buffer erosion were to occur; and The low annual probability of there being an earthquake large enough to give rise to canister failure due to rock shear movements and the potential consequences of such an earthquake, taking into

Safety case for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel at Olkiluoto. Assessment of radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-12-15

Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios sits within Posiva Oy's Safety Case 'TURVA-2012' report portfolio and has the objective of presenting an assessment of the repository system scenarios leading to radionuclide releases that have been identified in Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios. A base scenario, variant scenarios and disturbance scenarios are considered. For each scenario, a range of calculation cases, also identified in Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios, has been analysed, complemented by Monte Carlo simulations, a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and other supporting calculations. The calculation cases and analyses take into account major uncertainties in the initial state of the barriers and possible paths for the evolution of the repository system identified in Performance Assessment. Quality control and assurance measures have been adopted to ensure transparency and traceability of the calculations performed and hence to promote confidence in the analysis of the calculation cases. The calculation cases each consider a single, failed canister, where three possible modes of failure are addressed: (1) the presence of an initial penetrating defect in the copper overpack of the canister, (2) corrosion of the copper overpack, which occurs most rapidly in scenarios in which buffer density is reduced, e.g. by erosion, (3) shear movement on a fracture intersecting a deposition hole. The likelihood and consequences of multiple canister failure occurring during the assessment time frame are also considered. In particular, the analyses consider: The likelihood and consequences of there being multiple canisters with initial penetrating defects; The consequences if canister failure due to corrosion following buffer erosion were to occur; and The low annual probability of there being an earthquake large enough to give rise to canister failure due to rock shear movements and the potential consequences of such an earthquake

Interpreting energy scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

2018-05-01

Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

The Influence of Optical Filtering on the Noise Performance of Microwave Photonic Phase Shifters Based on SOAs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lloret, Juan; Ramos, Francisco; Xue, Weiqi

2011-01-01

Different optical filtering scenarios involving microwave photonic phase shifters based on semiconductor optical amplifiers are investigated numerically as well as experimentally with respect to noise performance. Investigations on the role of the modulation depth and number of elements in cascad...... shifting stages are also carried out. Suppression of the noise level by more than 5 dB has been achieved in schemes based on band-pass optical filtering when three phase shifting stages are cascaded....

Dose calculations for severe LWR accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margulies, T.S.; Martin, J.A. Jr.

1984-05-01

This report presents a set of precalculated doses based on a set of postulated accident releases and intended for use in emergency planning and emergency response. Doses were calculated for the PWR (Pressurized Water Reactor) accident categories of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) using the CRAC (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) code. Whole body and thyroid doses are presented for a selected set of weather cases. For each weather case these calculations were performed for various times and distances including three different dose pathways - cloud (plume) shine, ground shine and inhalation. During an emergency this information can be useful since it is immediately available for projecting offsite radiological doses based on reactor accident sequence information in the absence of plant measurements of emission rates (source terms). It can be used for emergency drill scenario development as well

Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Kilian A

2005-01-01

The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Kilian A.

2005-07-01

The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator-launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required Δv, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

2000-01-01

Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

Modeling and Understanding Time-Evolving Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riccardo Melen

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling application scenarios characterized by variability over time and involving heterogeneous kinds of knowledge. The evolution of distributed technologies creates new and challenging possibilities of integrating different kinds of problem solving methods, obtaining many benefits from the user point of view. In particular, we propose here a multilayer modeling system and adopt the Knowledge Artifact concept to tie together statistical and Artificial Intelligence rule-based methods to tackle problems in ubiquitous and distributed scenarios.

Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

2016-03-24

Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML.

Performance analysis of communication links based on VCSEL and silicon photonics technology for high-capacity data-intensive scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Boletti, A; Boffi, P; Martelli, P; Ferrario, M; Martinelli, M

2015-01-26

To face the increased demand for bandwidth, cost-effectiveness and simplicity of future Ethernet data communications, a comparison between two different solutions based on directly-modulated VCSEL sources and Silicon Photonics technologies is carried out. Also by exploiting 4-PAM modulation, the transmission of 50-Gb/s and beyond capacity per channel is analyzed by means of BER performance. Applications for optical backplane, very short reach and in case of client-optics networks and intra and inter massive data centers communications (up to 10 km) are taken into account. A comparative analysis based on the power consumption is also proposed.

Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

1999-01-01

This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

Life cycle assessment of cell phones in Brazil based on two reverse logistics scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniela da Gama e Silva Volpe Moreira de Moraes

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This article is a result of a cell phone collection obtained at the Center for Information Technology Renato Archer (CTI under the AMBIENTRONIC Program, an initiative that supports the Brazilian electronic sector in the development of technologies for sustainability. The objective of this article is to assess two reverse logistic scenarios of cell phones using the technique of life-cycle assessment (LCA. The first scenario reflects the current scenario in Brazil, where batteries are recycled in Brazil and the other parts of the phones are outsourced to Europe. The second scenario is a proposal of full treatment in Brazil. The results indicate that the second scenario has a lower potential impact with important reduction of acidification, photochemical oxidation, eutrophication and the use of non-renewable energy. Furthermore, fully implementing reverse logistics in Brazil will enable socioeconomic benefits from the sale of materials and the generation of employment and income.

Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.

2008-01-01

A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are

Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-05-01

This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

2002-01-01

Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

Measuring variability of procedure progression in proceduralized scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yochan; Park, Jinkyun; Jung, Wondea

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► The VPP measure was developed to quantify how differently operators follow the procedures. ► Sources that cause variability of ways to follow a given procedure were identified. ► The VPP values for the scenarios are positively related to the scenario performance time. ► The VPP measure is meaningful for explaining characteristics of several PSFs. -- Abstract: Various performance shaping factors (PSFs) have been presented to explain the contributors to unsafe acts in a human failure event or predict a human error probability of new human performance. However, because most of these parameters of an HRA depend on the subjective knowledge and experience of HRA analyzers, the results of an HRA insufficiently provide unbiased standards to explain human performance variations or compare collected data with other data from different analyzers. To secure the validity of the HRA results, we propose a quantitative measure, which represents the variability of procedure progression (VPP) in proceduralized scenarios. A VPP measure shows how differently the operators follow the steps of the procedures. This paper introduces the sources of the VPP measure and relevance to PSFs. The assessment method of the VPP measure is also proposed, and the application examples are shown with a comparison of the performance time. Although more empirical studies should be conducted to reveal the relationship between the VPP measure and other PSFs, it is believed that the VPP measure provides evidence to quantitatively evaluate human performance variations and to cross-culturally compare the collected data.

SKB/TVO ice age scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahlbom, K.; Aeikaes, T.; Ericsson, L.O.

1991-06-01

Ice ages have repeatedly occurred throughout geological history, and it is likely that they will also occur in the time-span considered for the disposal of nuclear fuel. Based on the present status of knowledge, this report discusses when future ice ages will occur and the possible changes in the geosphere that might be of importance for repository performance. The report is intended to be used as a basis when developing scenarios for safety analysis of final repository for spent nuclear fuel. Both the ACLIN and Imbrie and Imbrie models suggest stadials (glaciations) at c. 20000, 60000 and 100000 years from now. The ACLIN model also suggests a glaciation period around 5000 years ahead. The next interglacial period will occur at c. 75000 years, according to the Imbrie and Imbrie model, while the ACLIN model suggests that interglacial conditions will not appear until 125000 years form now. Other models strongly support the 60000 year glaciation event. To some extent there is also support for the 20000 and 5000 year events. For the purpose of the SKB/TVO scenario it is suggested that smaller or large glaciations will occur at 5000, 20000 and 60000 years form now. Following the last glaciation, interglacial conditions will prevail at 75000 years. Thus after the first glaciation (5000 years) this is the earliest time when most part of Sweden and Finland will once again be resettled by man. (25 refs.)

Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

2012-01-01

The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

Performance of Novice Army Nurses in a Combat Casualty Stress Scenario

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-30

94 Intrinsic Motivation Inventory .78 Ottawa Mental Skills Assessment Test-3 .79 Spiritual Well Being Scale .94 Rosenberg Self Esteem Scale .91...reactivity and recovery. Additionally, we examined whether psychosocial characteristics as measured by the Rosenberg Self Esteem Scale (RSES), Beck...Scenario HR=heart rate; S=salivary biomarker collection; BP=blood pressure assessment Table 1 Visual Analogue Scale Self Assessment (0-100mm) of

Integration of software for scenario exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

1999-03-01

The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

Performance of a system of reservoirs on futuristic front

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Satabdi; Roy, Debasri; Mazumdar, Asis

2017-10-01

Application of simulation model HEC-5 to analyze the performance of the DVC Reservoir System (a multipurpose system with a network of five reservoirs and one barrage) on the river Damodar in Eastern India in meeting projected future demand as well as controlling flood for synthetically generated future scenario is addressed here with a view to develop an appropriate strategy for its operation. Thomas-Fiering model (based on Markov autoregressive model) has been adopted for generation of synthetic scenario (monthly streamflow series) and subsequently downscaling of modeled monthly streamflow to daily values was carried out. The performance of the system (analysed on seasonal basis) in terms of `Performance Indices' (viz., both quantity based reliability and time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability indices) for the projected scenario with enhanced demand turned out to be poor compared to that for historical scenario. However, judicious adoption of resource enhancement (marginal reallocation of reservoir storage capacity) and demand management strategy (curtailment of projected high water requirements and trading off between demands) was found to be a viable option for improvement of the performance of the reservoir system appreciably [improvement being (1-51 %), (2-35 %), (16-96 %), (25-50 %), (8-36 %) and (12-30 %) for the indices viz., quantity based reliability, time based reliability, mean daily deficit, average failure period, resilience and maximum vulnerability, respectively] compared to that with normal storage and projected demand. Again, 100 % reliability for flood control for current as well as future synthetically generated scenarios was noted. The results from the study would assist concerned authority in successful operation of reservoirs in the context of growing demand and dwindling resource.

Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Welsch, Daniel L.; Jack Cosby, B.; Hornberger, George M.

2006-01-01

Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO 2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO 2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 μeq L - 1 ) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 μeq L - 1 ). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-01-01

Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

1994-07-01

Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

Evaluation of alternative future energy scenarios for Brazil using an energy mix model

Science.gov (United States)

Coelho, Maysa Joppert

The purpose of this study is to model and assess the performance and the emissions impacts of electric energy technologies in Brazil, based on selected economic scenarios, for a time frame of 40 years, taking the year of 1995 as a base year. A Base scenario has been developed, for each of three economic development projections, based upon a sectoral analysis. Data regarding the characteristics of over 300 end-use technologies and 400 energy conversion technologies have been collected. The stand-alone MARKAL technology-based energy-mix model, first developed at Brookhaven National Laboratory, was applied to a base case study and five alternative case studies, for each economic scenario. The alternative case studies are: (1) minimum increase in the thermoelectric contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (2) extreme values for crude oil price; (3) minimum increase in the renewable technologies contribution to the power production system of 20 percent after 2010; (4) uncertainty on the cost of future renewable conversion technologies; and (5) model is forced to use the natural gas plants committed to be built in the country. Results such as the distribution of fuel used for power generation, electricity demand across economy sectors, total CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels for power generation, shadow price (marginal cost) of technologies, and others, are evaluated and compared to the Base scenarios previous established. Among some key findings regarding the Brazilian energy system it may be inferred that: (1) diesel technologies are estimated to be the most cost-effective thermal technology in the country; (2) wind technology is estimated to be the most cost-effective technology to be used when a minimum share of renewables is imposed to the system; and (3) hydroelectric technologies present the highest cost/benefit relation among all conversion technologies considered. These results are subject to the limitations of key input

Environmental implications of large-scale adoption of wind power: a scenario-based life cycle assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G

2011-01-01

We investigate the potential environmental impacts of a large-scale adoption of wind power to meet up to 22% of the world’s growing electricity demand. The analysis builds on life cycle assessments of generic onshore and offshore wind farms, meant to represent average conditions for global deployment of wind power. We scale unit-based findings to estimate aggregated emissions of building, operating and decommissioning wind farms toward 2050, taking into account changes in the electricity mix in manufacturing. The energy scenarios investigated are the International Energy Agency’s BLUE scenarios. We estimate 1.7–2.6 Gt CO 2 -eq climate change, 2.1–3.2 Mt N-eq marine eutrophication, 9.2–14 Mt NMVOC photochemical oxidant formation, and 9.5–15 Mt SO 2 -eq terrestrial acidification impact category indicators due to global wind power in 2007–50. Assuming lifetimes 5 yr longer than reference, the total climate change indicator values are reduced by 8%. In the BLUE Map scenario, construction of new capacity contributes 64%, and repowering of existing capacity 38%, to total cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The total emissions of wind electricity range between 4% and 14% of the direct emissions of the replaced fossil-fueled power plants. For all impact categories, the indirect emissions of displaced fossil power are larger than the total emissions caused by wind power.

Land-use scenarios for Finnish cut-over peatlands – based on the mineral subsoil characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Päivi T. Picken

2006-01-01

Full Text Available In Finland, peat harvesting sites are exploited down almost to the mineral soil and the properties of mineral subsoil have considerable influence on the suitability of the various after-use forms. Chemical and physical features of the mineral subsoil must be studied whenafter-use is planned, to ensure no harmful effects follow. Research on mineral subsoils was carried out on Finnish peat production sites in 1997–1998 and 9800 hectares of peat production areas slowly getting exhausted were studied. The cutover area clearly suitable forforestation covered 57 % of the study area. The area well suitable for agriculture or energy crop growing covered 26-42 % of the study - depending if boulder-poor tills were included or excluded. Even larger areas might be possible for agriculture if for example remaining peat layer was used for compensating physical features of the mineral subsoil. Approximately 11 % was recommended for mire regeneration because of sensitive bottom soils, but much larger areas were possible for mire regeneratio. In 9 % of all cases fine mineral subsoils were on pool-forming locations and would this way offer sites best suitable for mire regeneration or even bird sanctuaries. Both EC and pH of the mineral subsoils were related to the presence of sulphur. The concentrations of Ca, Mg and K followed the fine-material percentage. Based on this study minimum analysis recommended was for pH, sulphur content and fine material (< 0.06 mm percentage. Other relevant elements were calcium, magnesium and potassium. Different land-use scenarios were created for areas inafter-use, released from peat production and in peat production (2004. These scenarios were based on the mineral subsoil suitability for different after-use forms. In these scenarios the total area annual carbon fixation values varied between 0.096 and 0.152 million t C a-1, when carbon emissions were not included.

Ecology, Economy and security of supply of the Dutch Electricity Supply System. A scenario based future analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roedel, J.G.

2008-01-01

The Dutch electricity sector has been transformed into a liberalized international energy market. Market players are free to choose from various electricity generation options when replacing or expanding production capacity. However, choices that are made now will influence emissions (ecology), integral costs (economy) and availability (security of supply) for the next 25 - 40 years. This thesis shows if and how, based on the current electricity supply system, an optimal balance of ecology, economy and security of supply can be achieved. First, the current electricity supply system is described to create a frame of reference. Then, future technological developments are described for electricity production options. Four potential scenarios are constructed featuring various uncertainties: the globalising versus the local economy; priority versus subordination for the environment; and the security/insecurity of the fuel supply. These four scenarios are worked out with a specially developed techno-economic simulation model; the results are analysed in terms of ecology, economy and security of supply. The findings indicate that it is impossible to arrive at an optimal balance for the defined scenarios. Scenarios with a low environmental impact lead to high integral costs and vice versa. However, by applying a smart combination of various modern generation technologies, CO2 capture and storage, the deployment of biomass and the re-use of residual heat it is possible to reach an optimal balance whereby the additional integral costs can be kept under control compared with the lowest-cost scenarios. To achieve this, clear growth and incentive guidelines need to be established for the various production options. This thesis will form a good starting point for that exercise

Identification and Selection of Alternative Scenarios in LCA Studies of Integrated Waste Management Systems: A Review of Main Issues and Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Raggi

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Life Cycle Assessment (LCA is a decision support tool that can be used to assess the environmental performance of an integrated waste management system or to identify the system with the best performance through a comparative analysis of different scenarios. The results of the analysis depend primarily on how the scenarios to be compared are defined, that is on which waste fractions are assumed to be sent to certain treatments/destinations and in what amounts. This paper reviews LCAs of integrated waste management systems with the aim of exploring how the scenarios to be compared are defined in the preliminary phase of an LCA. This critical review highlighted that various criteria, more or less subjective, are generally used for the definition of scenarios. Furthermore, the number of scenarios identified and compared is generally limited; this may entail that only the best option among a limited set of possibilities can be selected, instead of identifying the best of all possible combinations. As a result, the advisability of identifying an integrated life cycle-based methodological approach that allows finding the most environmentally sound scenario among all of those that are theoretically possible is stressed.

Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

2015-04-01

Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

Hydrogen energy network start-up scenario

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weingartner, S.; Ellerbrock, H.

1994-01-01

Hydrogen is widely discussed as future fuel and energy storage medium either to replace conventional fuels for automobiles, aircrafts and ships or to avoid the necessity of bulky battery systems for electricity storage, especially in connection with solar power systems. These discussions however started more than 25 years ago and up to now hydrogen has failed to achieve a major break-through towards wider application as energy storage medium in civil markets. The main reason is that other fuels are cheaper and very well implemented in our daily life. A study has been performed at Deutsche Aerospace in order to evaluate the boundary conditions, either political or economical, which would give hydrogen the necessary push, i.e. advantage over conventional fuels. The main goal of this study was to identify critical influence factors and specific start-up scenarios which would allow an economical and practically realistic use of hydrogen as fuel and energy medium in certain niche markets outside the space industry. Method and major results of this study are presented in detail in the paper. Certain niche markets could be identified, where with little initial governmental support, either by funding, tax laws or legislation, hydrogen can compete with conventional fuels. This however requires a scenario where a lot of small actions have to be taken by a high variety of institutions and industries which today are not interconnected with each other, i.e. it requires a new cooperative and proactive network between e.g. energy utilities, car industries, those who have a sound experience with hydrogen (space industry, chemical industry) and last, but certainly not the least, the government. Based on the developed scenario precise recommendations are drawn as conclusions