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Sample records for scenario analysis demonstrated

  1. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

  2. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  3. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  4. Review of potential EGS sites and possible EGS demonstration scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1999-09-01

    Review of potential sites for Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and development of reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are two sub-tasks included in the FY 1999 EGS Research and Development (R&D) Management Task (DOE Task Order Number DE-AT07-99ID60365, included in the Appendix of this report). These sub-tasks are consistent with the EGS Strategic Plan, which includes milestones relating to EGS site selection (Milestone 4, to be completed in 2004) and development of a cost-shared, pilot-scale demonstration project (Milestone 5, to be completed in 2008). The purpose of the present work is to provide some reference points for discussing what type of EGS projects might be undertaken, where they might be located, and what the associated benefits are likely to be. The review of potential EGS sites is presented in Chapter 2 of this report. It draws upon site-selection criteria (and potential project sites that were identified using those criteria) developed at a mini-workshop held at the April 1998 DOE Geothermal Program Review to discuss EGS R&D issues. The criteria and the sites were the focus of a paper presented at the 4th International Hot Dry Rock Forum in Strasbourg in September 1998 (Sass and Robertson-Tait, 1998). The selection criteria, project sites and possible EGS developments discussed in the workshop and paper are described in more detail herein. Input from geothermal operators is incorporated, and water availability and transmission-line access are emphasized. The reference scenarios for EGS demonstration projects are presented in Chapter 3. Three alternative scenarios are discussed: (1) a stand-alone demonstration plant in an area with no existing geothermal development; (2) a separate generating facility adjacent to an existing geothermal development; and (3) an EGS project that supplies an existing geothermal power plant with additional generating capacity. Furthermore, information potentially useful to DOE in framing solicitations and

  5. Demonstration of ITER operational scenarios on DIII-D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doyle, E.J.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Osborne, T.H.; Politzer, P.A.; Groebner, R.J.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Murakami, M.; Park, J.-M.; Reimerdes, H.; Budny, R.V.; Casper, T.A.; Holcomb, C.T.; Challis, C.D.; McKee, G.R.

    2010-01-01

    The DIII-D programme has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g. the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modelling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios, normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of ≥400 MW of fusion power production and Q ≥ 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of edge localized modes, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the physics requirements for the poloidal field coil set at 15 MA, based on observations that the inductance in the baseline scenario case evolves to a value that lies outside the original ITER specification.

  6. Demonstration of ITER Operational Scenarios on DIII-D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doyle, E.J.; Budny, R.V.; DeBoo, J.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Jackson, G.L.; Luce, T.C.; Murakami, M.; Osborne, T.H.; Park, J.; Politzer, P.A.; Reimerdes, H.; Casper, T.A.; Challis, C.D.; Groebner, R.J.; Holcomb, C.T.; Hyatt, A.W.; La Haye, R.J.; McKee, G.R.; Petrie, T.W.; Petty, C.C.; Rhodes, T.L.; Shafer, M.W.; Snyder, P.B.; Strait, E.J; Wade, M.R.; Wang, G.; West, W.P.; Zeng, L.

    2008-01-01

    The DIII-D program has recently initiated an effort to provide suitably scaled experimental evaluations of four primary ITER operational scenarios. New and unique features of this work are that the plasmas incorporate essential features of the ITER scenarios and anticipated operating characteristics; e.g., the plasma cross-section, aspect ratio and value of I/aB of the DIII-D discharges match the ITER design, with size reduced by a factor of 3.7. Key aspects of all four scenarios, such as target values for β N and H 98 , have been replicated successfully on DIII-D, providing an improved and unified physics basis for transport and stability modeling, as well as for performance extrapolation to ITER. In all four scenarios normalized performance equals or closely approaches that required to realize the physics and technology goals of ITER, and projections of the DIII-D discharges are consistent with ITER achieving its goals of (ge) 400 MW of fusion power production and Q (ge) 10. These studies also address many of the key physics issues related to the ITER design, including the L-H transition power threshold, the size of ELMs, pedestal parameter scaling, the impact of tearing modes on confinement and disruptivity, beta limits and the required capabilities of the plasma control system. An example of direct influence on the ITER design from this work is a modification of the specified operating range in internal inductance at 15 MA for the poloidal field coil set, based on observations that the measured inductance in the baseline scenario case lay outside the original ITER specification

  7. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  8. Analysis of long-term energy scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemming, J.; Morthorst, P.E.

    1998-09-01

    When addressing the role of fusion energy in the 21. century, the evaluation of possible future structures in the electricity market and the energy sector as a whole, can be a useful tool. Because fusion energy still needs demonstration, commercialized fusion energy is not likely to be a reality within the next few decades. Therefore long-term scenarios are needed describing the energy markets, which fusion energy eventually will be part of. This report performs an analysis of two of the most detailed existing long-term scenarios describing possible futures of the energy system. The aim is to clarify the frames in which the future development of the global energy demand, as well as the structure of the energy system can be expected to develop towards the year 2100. (au) 19 refs.

  9. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  10. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-01-01

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios

  11. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  12. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  13. Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Qi; Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2012-01-01

    Under continuing policies of CO 2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO 2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. -- Highlights: ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power

  14. Participative Spatial Scenario Analysis for Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Marina; Stotten, Rike; Steinbacher, Melanie; Leitinger, Georg; Tasser, Erich; Schirpke, Uta; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Schermer, Markus

    2017-10-01

    Land use and land cover patterns are shaped by the interplay of human and ecological processes. Thus, heterogeneous cultural landscapes have developed, delivering multiple ecosystem services. To guarantee human well-being, the development of land use types has to be evaluated. Scenario development and land use and land cover change models are well-known tools for assessing future landscape changes. However, as social and ecological systems are inextricably linked, land use-related management decisions are difficult to identify. The concept of social-ecological resilience can thereby provide a framework for understanding complex interlinkages on multiple scales and from different disciplines. In our study site (Stubai Valley, Tyrol/Austria), we applied a sequence of steps including the characterization of the social-ecological system and identification of key drivers that influence farmers' management decisions. We then developed three scenarios, i.e., "trend", "positive" and "negative" future development of farming conditions and assessed respective future land use changes. Results indicate that within the "trend" and "positive" scenarios pluri-activity (various sources of income) prevents considerable changes in land use and land cover and promotes the resilience of farming systems. Contrarily, reductions in subsidies and changes in consumer behavior are the most important key drivers in the negative scenario and lead to distinct abandonment of grassland, predominantly in the sub-alpine zone of our study site. Our conceptual approach, i.e., the combination of social and ecological methods and the integration of local stakeholders' knowledge into spatial scenario analysis, resulted in highly detailed and spatially explicit results that can provide a basis for further community development recommendations.

  15. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  16. Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Ruge

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

  17. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  18. Scenario analysis of sustainable development of the world largest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, scenario analysis of the social development and environmental protection ... Scenario 2 is obviously more preferable though its ecological goal is not the most ... International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol.

  19. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  20. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  1. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  2. Demonstration of Coupled Multievent Scenario at a Subject Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Justin Leigh; Prescott, Steven Ralph; Smith, Curtis; Sampath, Ram

    2015-01-01

    This report discusses how to perform a coupled, seismic and flooding, multievent risk-informed analysis. Presented in the following sections are the need for multievent risk-informed analysis, the tools needed to perform the analysis, and an example of solving a demonstration problem.

  3. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-07-24

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

  4. Multi-Scenario Use Case based Demonstration of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework Webtool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.; Mylrea, Michael E.; Gervais, Easton L.; Bhadra, Sraddhanjoli

    2017-11-27

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the cybersecurity and software capabilities of Buildings Cybersecurity Framework (BCF) webtool. The webtool is designed based on BCF document and existing NIST standards. It’s capabilities and features are depicted through a building usecase with four different investment scenarios geared towards improving the cybersecurity posture of the building. BCF webtool also facilitates implementation of the goals outlined in Presidential Executive Order (EO) on Strengthening the Cybersecurity of Federal Networks and Critical Infrastructure (May 2017. In realization of the EO goals, BCF includes five core elements: Identify, Protect, Detect, Respond, and Recover, to help determine various policy and process level vulnerabilities and provide mitigation strategies. With the BCF webtool, an organization can perform a cybersecurity self-assessment; determine the current cybersecurity posture; define investment based goals to achieve a target state; connect the cybersecurity posture with business processes, functions, and continuity; and finally, develop plans to answer critical organizational cybersecurity questions. In this paper, the webtool and its core capabilities are depicted by performing an extensive comparative assessment over four different scenarios.

  5. Analysis of the 2011 Negawatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, Claude; Bacher, Pierre

    2011-01-01

    This document discusses the 2011 Negawatt scenario which, through a 'sobriety and efficiency' approach, divides by two the final energy consumption, and nearly by three the primary energy demand. This decrease concerns all activity sectors, but more particularly the housing and office building sector by means of an extended insulation programme. In the transport sector, the decrease is obtained by a reduction of use, but above all, by technological advances. Fossil energies are nearly discarded. The strong increase of renewable energies is mainly due to biomass which is used for heating purposes, but essentially under the form of methane which replaces oil in transports. Wind and photovoltaic energy ensures 28% of primary energy production and about 60% of electricity production. The feasibility of these measures is analyzed

  6. Alternative jet fuel scenario analysis report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-30

    This analysis presents a bottom up projection of the potential production of alternative aviation (jet) fuels in North America (United States, Canada, and Mexico) and the European Union in the next decade. The analysis is based on available pla...

  7. Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

    2001-01-01

    Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

  8. A critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2011-01-01

    The author proposes a rather radical critical analysis of the NegaWatt scenario which is mainly based on the development of the use of solid and liquid biomass produced by forests and farms, and of some marginal resources like wood and urban wastes. He shows that wood resources in France are not sufficient as part of the wood is used for construction. A further exploitation of wood would lead to a dramatic increase of costs. He shows that the scenario overestimates the available wood in France, and moreover, that the promoters of the scenario overstep the physical, biological, social and economic limits of the real world of agriculture

  9. Issues and scenarios for nuclear waste management systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1980-11-01

    The Planning and Analysis Branch of the Department of Energy's Nuclear Waste Management Programs is developing a new systems integration program. The Pacific Northwest Laboratory was requested to perform a brief scoping analysis of what scenarios, questions, and issues should be addressed by the systems integration program. This document reports on that scoping analysis

  10. Analyses to demonstrate the structural performance of the CASTOR KN12 in hypothetical accident drop accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diersch, R.; Weiss, M.; Tso, C.F.; Chung, S.H.; Lee, H.Y.

    2004-01-01

    CASTORc ircledR KN-12 is a new cask design by GNB for KHNP-NETEC for dry and wet transportation of up to twelve spent PWR fuel assemblies in Korea. It received its transport license from the Korean Competent Authority KINS in July 2002 and is now in use in South Korea. It has been designed to satisfy the regulatory requirements of the 10 CFR 71 and the IAEA ST-1 for Type B(U)F packages. Its structural performance was demonstrated against the load cases and boundary conditions as defined in 10 CFR 71 and NRC's Regulatory Guide 7.8, and further explained in NUREG 1617. This included normal conditions of transport load cases - including Hot Environment, Cold Environment, Increased External Pressure (140MPa), Minimum External Pressure (24.5kPa), Vibration and shock, and 0.3m free drop - and the hypothetical accident conditions load cases - including the 9m Free Drop, Puncture, Thermal Fire Accident, 200m Water Immersion and 1.5 x MNOP Internal Pressure. Structural performance were demonstrated by analysis, including state-of-the-art finite element (FE) simulation, and confirmed by tests using a 1/3-scale model. Test results were also used to verify the numerical tool and the methods used in the analyses. All the structural analyses including validation against drop tests were carried out by Arup, and testing were carried out by KAERI. This paper concentrates on the analysis carried out to demonstrate performance in the hypothetical accident 9m free drop scenarios, and results from a small selection of them

  11. Analyses to demonstrate the structural performance of the CASTOR KN12 in hypothetical accident drop accident scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diersch, R.; Weiss, M. [Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Behaelter mbH (Germany); Tso, C.F. [Arup (United Kingdom); Chung, S.H.; Lee, H.Y. [KHNP-NETEC (Korea)

    2004-07-01

    CASTORc{sup ircledR} KN-12 is a new cask design by GNB for KHNP-NETEC for dry and wet transportation of up to twelve spent PWR fuel assemblies in Korea. It received its transport license from the Korean Competent Authority KINS in July 2002 and is now in use in South Korea. It has been designed to satisfy the regulatory requirements of the 10 CFR 71 and the IAEA ST-1 for Type B(U)F packages. Its structural performance was demonstrated against the load cases and boundary conditions as defined in 10 CFR 71 and NRC's Regulatory Guide 7.8, and further explained in NUREG 1617. This included normal conditions of transport load cases - including Hot Environment, Cold Environment, Increased External Pressure (140MPa), Minimum External Pressure (24.5kPa), Vibration and shock, and 0.3m free drop - and the hypothetical accident conditions load cases - including the 9m Free Drop, Puncture, Thermal Fire Accident, 200m Water Immersion and 1.5 x MNOP Internal Pressure. Structural performance were demonstrated by analysis, including state-of-the-art finite element (FE) simulation, and confirmed by tests using a 1/3-scale model. Test results were also used to verify the numerical tool and the methods used in the analyses. All the structural analyses including validation against drop tests were carried out by Arup, and testing were carried out by KAERI. This paper concentrates on the analysis carried out to demonstrate performance in the hypothetical accident 9m free drop scenarios, and results from a small selection of them.

  12. Economic Analysis of Different Electric Vehicle Charging Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Li; Haiming, Zhou; Xiufan, Ma; Hao, Wang

    2017-05-01

    Influence of electric vehicles (EV) to grid cannot be ignored. Research on the economy analysis of different charging scenarios is helpful to guide the user to charge or discharge orderly. EV charging models are built such as disordered charging, valley charging, intelligent charging, and V2G (Vehicle to Grid), by which changes of charging load in different scenarios can be seen to analyze the influence to initial load curve, and comparison can be done about user’s average cost. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the electric vehicle charging behavior, cost in different charging scenarios are compared, social cost is introduced in V2G scene, and the relationship between user’s average cost and social cost is analyzed. By test, it is proved that user’s cost is the lowest in V2G scenario, and the larger the scale of vehicles is, the more the social cost can save.

  13. A scenario-based procedure for seismic risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, J.-U.; Mualchin, L.; Panza, G.F.

    2006-12-01

    A new methodology for seismic risk analysis based on probabilistic interpretation of deterministic or scenario-based hazard analysis, in full compliance with the likelihood principle and therefore meeting the requirements of modern risk analysis, has been developed. The proposed methodology can easily be adjusted to deliver its output in a format required for safety analysts and civil engineers. The scenario-based approach allows the incorporation of all available information collected in a geological, seismotectonic and geotechnical database of the site of interest as well as advanced physical modelling techniques to provide a reliable and robust deterministic design basis for civil infrastructures. The robustness of this approach is of special importance for critical infrastructures. At the same time a scenario-based seismic hazard analysis allows the development of the required input for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) as required by safety analysts and insurance companies. The scenario-based approach removes the ambiguity in the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which relies on the projections of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) equation. The problems in the validity of G-R projections, because of incomplete to total absence of data for making the projections, are still unresolved. Consequently, the information from G-R must not be used in decisions for design of critical structures or critical elements in a structure. The scenario-based methodology is strictly based on observable facts and data and complemented by physical modelling techniques, which can be submitted to a formalised validation process. By means of sensitivity analysis, knowledge gaps related to lack of data can be dealt with easily, due to the limited amount of scenarios to be investigated. The proposed seismic risk analysis can be used with confidence for planning, insurance and engineering applications. (author)

  14. Scenario-informed multiple criteria analysis for prioritizing investments in electricity capacity expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, Lauro J.; Lambert, James H.; Karvetski, Christopher W.

    2011-01-01

    Planning the expansion and energy security of electricity capacity for a national electricity utility is a complex task in almost any economy. Planning is usually an iterative activity and can involve the use of large scale planning optimization systems accompanied by assessment of uncertain scenarios emerging from economic, technological, environmental, and regulatory developments. This paper applies a multiple criteria decision analysis to prioritize investment portfolios in capacity expansion and energy security while principally studying the robustness of the prioritization to multiple uncertain and emergent scenarios. The scenarios are identified through interaction with decision makers and stakeholders. The approach finds which scenarios most affect the prioritization of the portfolios and which portfolios have the greatest upside and downside potential across scenarios. The approach fosters innovation in the use of robust and efficient technologies, renewable energy sources, and cleaner energy fuels. A demonstration is provided for assessing the performance of technology portfolios constructed from investments in nine electricity generation technologies in Mexico.

  15. Overview description of the base scenario derived from FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    , subsequent evolution and the processes affecting radionuclide transport for the groundwater and gas pathways. This report uses the conceptual models developed from the FEP analysis to present a description of the base scenario, in terms of the processes to be represented in detailed models. This report does not present an assessment of the base scenario, but rather seeks to provide a summary of those features, events and processes that should be represented, at an appropriate level of detail, within numerical models. The requirements for the development of appropriate models for representing the base scenario are described in an underlying report within the model development document suite. (author)

  16. Quantitative scenario analysis of low and intermediate level radioactive repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Keon Jae; Lee, Sang Yoon; Park, Keon Baek; Song, Min Cheon; Lee, Ho Jin

    1998-03-01

    Derivation of hypothetical radioactive waste disposal facility os conducted through sub-component characteristic analysis and conceptual modeling. It is studied that quantitative analysis of constructed scenario in terms of annual effective dose equivalent. This study is sequentially conducted according to performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal facility such as : ground water flow analysis, source term analysis, ground water transport, surface water transport, dose and pathways. The routine program module such as VAM2D-PAGAN-GENII is used for quantitative scenario analysis. Detailed data used in this module are come from experimental data of Korean territory and default data given within this module. Is case of blank data for code execution, it is estimated through reasonable engineering sense

  17. Emission trading scheme: market analysis and forecasting scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clo, Stefano

    2006-01-01

    This article offers an economic analysis of the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and its institutional framework; we introduce an economic model able to simulate some possible market price's scenarios. The aim of this article is to offer a better market fundamentals' comprehension and to help economic agents building their expectations about market's development [it

  18. Analysis of Relay Selection Game in a Cooperative Communication Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Craciunescu, Razvan; Mihovska, Albena; Halunga, Simona

    This paper analysis the performances of a proposed set of functions that model the relay selection process in a cooperative communication scenario. The behavior and influence proposed functions create a mechanism for selecting the best relays to be used to send certain types of data. The mechanism...... of comparison between the bit error rate of the proposed mechanism and the direct communication....

  19. Systematic approach to scenario development using FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, L.E.E.; Lever, D.A.

    2001-01-01

    UK regulatory requirements require that the 'assessed radiological risk ... to a representative member of the potentially exposed group at greatest risk should be consistent with a risk target of 10 -6 per year' and that risks should be 'summed over all situations that could give rise to exposure to the group'. It is a further requirement that a repository performance assessment provides a 'comprehensive record of the judgements and assumptions on which the risk assessments are based'. In order to meet these requirements, Nirex, working with AEA Technology, has developed an approach to performance assessment based on the identification and analysis of features, events and processes (FEPs). The objectives of the approach are to provide a comprehensive, traceable and clear presentation of a performance assessment for a deep geological radioactive waste repository. The approach to scenario development is fundamental to the overall Nirex strategy for performance assessment, eventually leading to a repository safety case for regulatory submission. This paper outlines the main concepts of the approach, illustrated with examples of work undertaken by Nirex to demonstrate its practicality. Due to the current status of the Nirex repository programme, the approach has not yet been used to conduct a full performance assessment of a repository located at a specific site. (authors)

  20. Need for Outcome Scenario Analysis of Clinical Trials in Diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Verdugo, Rosa; Erbach, Michael; Schnell, Oliver

    2017-03-01

    Since the FDA requirement for cardiovascular safety of all new antihyperglycemic drugs to enter the market, the number and extent of phase 3 clinical trials has markedly increased. Unexpected trial results imply an enormous economic, personal and time cost and has deleterious effects over R&D. To prevent unforeseen developments in clinical trials, we recommend performing a comprehensive prospective outcome scenario analysis before launching the trial. In this commentary, we discuss the most important factors to take in consideration for prediction of clinical trial outcome scenarios and propose a theoretical model for decision making.

  1. Evaluation of finite element codes for demonstrating the performance of radioactive material packages in hypothetical accident drop scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tso, C.F. [Arup (United Kingdom); Hueggenberg, R. [Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Behaelter mbH (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    Drop testing and analysis are the two methods for demonstrating the performance of packages in hypothetical drop accident scenarios. The exact purpose of the tests and the analyses, and the relative prominence of the two in the license application, may depend on the Competent Authority and will vary between countries. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is a powerful analysis tool. A reliable finite element (FE) code when used correctly and appropriately, will allow a package's behaviour to be simulated reliably. With improvements in computing power, and in sophistication and reliability of FE codes, it is likely that FEM calculations will increasingly be used as evidence of drop test performance when seeking Competent Authority approval. What is lacking at the moment, however, is a standardised method of assessing a FE code in order to determine whether it is sufficiently reliable or pessimistic. To this end, the project Evaluation of Codes for Analysing the Drop Test Performance of Radioactive Material Transport Containers, funded by the European Commission Directorate-General XVII (now Directorate-General for Energy and Transport) and jointly performed by Arup and Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Behaelter mbH, was carried out in 1998. The work consisted of three components: Survey of existing finite element software, with a view to finding codes that may be capable of analysing drop test performance of radioactive material packages, and to produce an inventory of them. Develop a set of benchmark problems to evaluate software used for analysing the drop test performance of packages. Evaluate the finite element codes by testing them against the benchmarks This paper presents a summary of this work.

  2. Evaluation of finite element codes for demonstrating the performance of radioactive material packages in hypothetical accident drop scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tso, C.F.; Hueggenberg, R.

    2004-01-01

    Drop testing and analysis are the two methods for demonstrating the performance of packages in hypothetical drop accident scenarios. The exact purpose of the tests and the analyses, and the relative prominence of the two in the license application, may depend on the Competent Authority and will vary between countries. The Finite Element Method (FEM) is a powerful analysis tool. A reliable finite element (FE) code when used correctly and appropriately, will allow a package's behaviour to be simulated reliably. With improvements in computing power, and in sophistication and reliability of FE codes, it is likely that FEM calculations will increasingly be used as evidence of drop test performance when seeking Competent Authority approval. What is lacking at the moment, however, is a standardised method of assessing a FE code in order to determine whether it is sufficiently reliable or pessimistic. To this end, the project Evaluation of Codes for Analysing the Drop Test Performance of Radioactive Material Transport Containers, funded by the European Commission Directorate-General XVII (now Directorate-General for Energy and Transport) and jointly performed by Arup and Gesellschaft fuer Nuklear-Behaelter mbH, was carried out in 1998. The work consisted of three components: Survey of existing finite element software, with a view to finding codes that may be capable of analysing drop test performance of radioactive material packages, and to produce an inventory of them. Develop a set of benchmark problems to evaluate software used for analysing the drop test performance of packages. Evaluate the finite element codes by testing them against the benchmarks This paper presents a summary of this work

  3. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2013-01-01

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  4. European Climate - Energy Security Nexus. A model based scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Criqui, Patrick; Mima, Silvana

    2011-01-01

    In this research, we have provided an overview of the climate-security nexus in the European sector through a model based scenario analysis with POLES model. The analysis underline that under stringent climate policies, Europe take advantage of a double dividend in its capacity to develop a new cleaner energy model and in lower vulnerability to potential shocks on the international energy markets. (authors)

  5. Environmental analysis for pipeline gas demonstration plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stinton, L.H.

    1978-09-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE) has implemented programs for encouraging the development and commercialization of coal-related technologies, which include coal gasification demonstration-scale activities. In support of commercialization activities the Environmental Analysis for Pipeline Gas Demonstration Plants has been prepared as a reference document to be used in evaluating potential environmental and socioeconomic effects from construction and operation of site- and process-specific projects. Effluents and associated impacts are identified for six coal gasification processes at three contrasting settings. In general, impacts from construction of a high-Btu gas demonstration plant are similar to those caused by the construction of any chemical plant of similar size. The operation of a high-Btu gas demonstration plant, however, has several unique aspects that differentiate it from other chemical plants. Offsite development (surface mining) and disposal of large quantities of waste solids constitute important sources of potential impact. In addition, air emissions require monitoring for trace metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, phenols, and other emissions. Potential biological impacts from long-term exposure to these emissions are unknown, and additional research and data analysis may be necessary to determine such effects. Possible effects of pollutants on vegetation and human populations are discussed. The occurrence of chemical contaminants in liquid effluents and the bioaccumulation of these contaminants in aquatic organisms may lead to adverse ecological impact. Socioeconomic impacts are similar to those from a chemical plant of equivalent size and are summarized and contrasted for the three surrogate sites.

  6. Demonstration sensitivity analysis for RADTRAN III

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neuhauser, K.S.; Reardon, P.C.

    1986-10-01

    A demonstration sensitivity analysis was performed to: quantify the relative importance of 37 variables to the total incident free dose; assess the elasticity of seven dose subgroups to those same variables; develop density distributions for accident dose to combinations of accident data under wide-ranging variations; show the relationship between accident consequences and probabilities of occurrence; and develop limits for the variability of probability consequence curves

  7. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  8. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    from 1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO{sub 2} emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO{sub 2} emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO{sub 2} emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO{sub 2} per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy

  10. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-01

    1,313 PJ in 2010. Nevertheless, the energy intensity is expected to decrease gradually across the three scenarios, from 65MJ/$ in base year (2010) to 22, 20 and 13 MJ/$ in 2050 for BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively. Importantly, under Scenario 2, the energy intensity will decrease with an average annual rate of 3,9%. Certainly, Scenario 2 has the largest capability of energy savings. The per capita primary energy consumption in Scenario 2 is the highest (at annual rate of 4.1%) and followed by Scenario 1 (3.3%) over the period. With respect to energy intensity, energy diversity and per capita consumption, BAU scenario shows is the least preferred option with highest risks related to security and diversity of supply. In Scenario 2, the proportion of oil consumption will decrease to 7.4%, i.e., lower than the values of 17.72% and 11.5% for the BAU and Scenario 1, respectively. The demand for non-conventional renewables is expected to increase significantly in all three scenarios from around 1% in 2010, to 11% 23% and 36.6% for the BAU scenario, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 respectively over the period of 2010-2050. Overall, under Scenario 2, the degree of diversification in the total energy requirement would increase and gradually will become environmentally friendly in Ethiopia, with rapid growth in the use of alternative clean energy. The absolute CO 2 emissions under the three scenarios from 2010 to 2050 will slightly increase due to the stronger economic development, which still stay within the limits of an ambitious climate change mitigation policy. Nevertheless, Scenario 2 has the lowest CO 2 emission intensity, followed by the Scenario 1 and BAU scenarios. By 2050 the CO 2 emissions intensities of BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will reach 0.1, 0.08 and 0.05 kg CO 2 per US$ of GDP, respectively. Overall, the results of analysis demonstrate that the alternative scenarios (Scenario 1 and Scenario 2) would result in a sustainable energy transitions that

  11. Scenario analysis to account for photovoltaic generation uncertainty in distribution grid reconfiguration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chittur Ramaswamy, Parvathy; Deconinck, Geert; Pillai, Jayakrishnan Radhakrishna

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers hourly reconfiguration of a low voltage distribution network with the objectives of minimizing power loss and voltage deviation. The uncertainty in photovoltaic (PV) generation which in turn will affect the optimum configuration is tackled with the help of scenario analysis. ......-dominated solutions, demonstrating their trade-offs. Finally, the best compromise solution can be selected depending on the decision maker's requirement....

  12. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  13. Application of scenario analysis in the investment projects evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brzaković Tomislav

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Investing represents an investment in the present to achieve certain effects in the future, and risk is an essential part of the investment process. Scenario analysis involves key risk factors of the project, its sensitivity to changes in key factors and the likelihood of their changes. Scenario analysis allows us to assign probabilities to the base case, the best case and the worst case so that we can find the expected value and standard deviation of the project's NPV to get a better idea of the project's risk. The goal is to determine whether it is possible to make relevant investment decisions on the basis of the parameters of projects risk, such as the standard deviation and the coefficient of variation. The paper is based on a mathematical model, applied to a specific agricultural company. In our case, the project has a wide range of possibilities and a large potential negative value, which suggests a great risk of the project. Although the scenario analysis shows a higher risk, it is not clear if the project should be accepted or not, and therefore, it is necessary to conduct simulation analysis, in order to get reliable answers.

  14. Energy scenario analysis Enova-IFE; Energiscenarioanalyser Enova-IFE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva; Espegren, Kari Aamodt

    2009-11-15

    Institute for Energy Technology has made a projection of energy use in stationary sector of Norway up to 2050 and by the use of the Norwegian MARKAL model analyzed various scenarios. Total increase demand in stationary sectors by 6 TWh, or 4% to 2020 and by 29 TWh or 16% for 2050, which increase primarily comes in the buildings. Scenarios are analyzed to show the long-term potential given the various operating parameters. An important scenario that is analyzed, the fulfillment of renewable directive. In 2005, the renewable share in Norway about 61%. In the analysis it is assumed that the renewable share to be 75% as of 2020. Implementation of energy efficiency will have a crucial role to increase the renewable share, and efficiency contributes with 26 TWh in the base scenario. What percentage of energy efficiency measures are really implemented will have a great impact on how much renewable electricity to be produced, or how much more bio-energy that must be used, in order to achieve the goal of renewable directive. (AG)

  15. Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayres, R.U.

    1995-01-01

    Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric 'macro-drivers' (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of 'pure' CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops. 4 figs., 2 tabs., 38 refs

  16. Data Envelopment Analysis of different climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bosetti, Valentina; Buchner, Barbara

    2009-01-01

    Recent developments in the political, scientific and economic debate on climate change suggest that it is of critical importance to develop new approaches able to compare policy scenarios for their environmental effectiveness, their distributive effects, their enforceability, their costs and many other dimensions. This paper discusses a quantitative methodology to assess the relative performance of different climate policy scenarios when accounting for their long-term economic, social and environmental impacts. The proposed procedure is based on Data Envelopment Analysis, here employed in evaluating the relative efficiency of eleven global climate policy scenarios. The methodology provides a promising comparison framework; it can be seen as a way of setting some basic guidelines to frame further debates and negotiations and can be flexibly adopted and modified by decision makers to obtain relevant information for policy design. Three major findings emerge from this analysis: (1) stringent climate policies can outperform less ambitious proposals if all sustainability dimensions are taken into account; (2) a carefully chosen burden-sharing rule is able to bring together climate stabilisation and equity considerations; and (3) the most inefficient strategy results from the failure to negotiate a post-2012 global climate agreement. (author)

  17. Computer enhanced release scenario analysis for a nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stottlemyre, J.A.; Petrie, G.M.; Mullen, M.F.

    1979-01-01

    An interactive (user-oriented) computer tool is being developed at PNL to assist in the analysis of release scenarios for long-term safety assessment of a continental geologic nuclear waste repository. Emphasis is on characterizing the various ways the geologic and hydrologic system surrounding a repository might vary over the 10 6 to 10 7 years subsequent to final closure of the cavern. The potential disruptive phenomena are categorized as natural geologic and man-caused and tend to be synergistic in nature. The computer tool is designed to permit simulation of the system response as a function of the ongoing disruptive phenomena and time. It is designed to be operated in a determinatic manner, i.e., user selection of the desired scenarios and associated rate, magnitude, and lag time data; or in a stochastic mode. The stochastic mode involves establishing distributions for individual phenomena occurrence probabilities, rates, magnitudes, and phase relationships. A Monte-Carlo technique is then employed to generate a multitude of disruptive event scenarios, scan for breaches of the repository isolation, and develop input to the release consequence analysis task. To date, only a simplified one-dimensional version of the code has been completed. Significant modification and development is required to expand its dimensionality and apply the tool to any specific site

  18. Robustness Analysis of Real Network Topologies Under Multiple Failure Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, M.; Marzo, J. L.; Calle, E.

    2012-01-01

    on topological characteristics. Recently approaches also consider the services supported by such networks. In this paper we carry out a robustness analysis of five real backbone telecommunication networks under defined multiple failure scenarios, taking into account the consequences of the loss of established......Nowadays the ubiquity of telecommunication networks, which underpin and fulfill key aspects of modern day living, is taken for granted. Significant large-scale failures have occurred in the last years affecting telecommunication networks. Traditionally, network robustness analysis has been focused...... connections. Results show which networks are more robust in response to a specific type of failure....

  19. DEMONSTRATION IN THE DIII-D TOKAMAK OF AN ALTERNATE BASELINE SCENARIO FOR ITER AND OTHER BURNING PLASMA EXPERIMENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LUCE, T.C.; WADE, M.R.; FERRON, J.R.; HYATT, A.W.; KELLMAN, A.G.; KINSEY, J.E.; LAHAY, R.J.; LASNIER, C.J.; MURAKAMI, M.; POLITZER, P.A.; SCOVILLE, J.T.

    2002-01-01

    OAK A271 DEMONSTRATION IN THE DIII-D TOKAMAK OF AN ALTERNATE BASELINE SCENARIO FOR ITER AND OTHER BURNING PLASMA EXPERIMENTS. Discharges which can satisfy the high gain goals of burning plasma experiments have been demonstrated in the DIII-D tokamak in stationary conditions with relatively low plasma current (q 95 > 4). A figure of merit for fusion gain Β N H 89 /q 95 2 has been maintained at values corresponding to Q = 10 operation in a burning plasma for > 6 s or 36 τ E and 2 τ R . The key element is the relaxation of the current profile to a stationary state with q min > 1, which allows stable operation up to the no-wall ideal β limit. These plasmas maintain particle balance by active pumping rather than transient wall conditions. The reduced current lessens significantly the potential for structural damage in the event of a major disruption

  20. Carbon reduction scenarios for 2050: An explorative analysis of public preferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Patricia; Chatterton, Tim

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of public preferences for a low carbon future UK and compares them with three future scenarios proposed by the UK government based on data from 10,983 self-selected participants who engaged in the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change ‘My2050’ online simulation. Participants expressed a stronger preference for demand-side options than for supply-side ones. They also chose fuel switching (to electricity) and technical energy efficiency measures above more behaviour focused options. Renewable energy options (wind, solar, marine and hydro) were preferred to other low carbon supply options (nuclear power, carbon capture and storage), with offshore wind power more popular than onshore. Nuclear power was the least popular generation option. Acceptability of the government′s three proposed scenarios was tested by comparing these scenarios with the research findings. Greatest support was suggested for the two scenarios emphasising business greenness, home energy efficiency, electrification of home heating and travel behaviour. The lowest level of support was demonstrated for the scenario based on significant growth in nuclear power with minimal increases in energy efficiency. Despite issues regarding the representivity of the sampled respondents, the work demonstrates the possibility of using outputs from the tool to assess publically preferred pathways. - Highlights: • Examination of >10,000 initial responses to UK government ‘My 2050’ simulation. • A number of patterns were identified in the responses. • Participants preferred renewable energy options to other low carbon supply options. • The alignment of public preferences with government scenarios was assessed. • The value of scenario simulations for public engagement was demonstrated with caveats

  1. Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

    2011-04-01

    Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

  2. A cognitive task analysis of the SGTR scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, E.; Edland, A.; Svenson, O.

    1996-04-01

    This report constitutes a contribution to the NKS/RAK-1:3 project on Integrated Sequence Analysis. Following the meeting at Ringhals, the work was proposed to be performed by the following three steps: Task 1. Cognitive Task Analysis of the E-3 procedure. Task 2. Evaluation and revision of task analysis with Ringhals/KSU experts. Task 3. Integration with simulator data. The Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) of Task 1 uses the Goals-Means Task Analysis (GMTA) method to identify the sequence of tasks and task steps necessary to achieve the goals of the procedure. It is based on material supplied by Ringhals, which describes the E-3 procedure, including the relevant ES and ECA procedures. The analysis further outlines the cognitive demands profile associated with individual task steps as well as with the task as a whole, as an indication of the nominal task load. The outcome of the cognitive task analysis provides a basis for proposing an adequate event tree. This report describes the results from Task 1. The work has included a two-day meeting between the three contributors, as well as the exchange of intermediate results and comments throughout the period. After the initial draft of the report was prepared, an opportunity was given to observe the SGTR scenario in a full-scope training simulator, and to discuss the details with the instructors. This led to several improvements from the initial draft. (EG)

  3. Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

    2006-04-15

    This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

  4. Large scale scenario analysis of future low carbon energy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olaleye, Olaitan; Baker, Erin

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we use a multi-model framework to examine a set of possible future energy scenarios resulting from R&D investments in Solar, Nuclear, Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Bio-fuels, Bio-electricity, and Batteries for Electric Transportation. Based on a global scenario analysis, we examine the impact on the economy of advancement in energy technologies, considering both individual technologies and the interactions between pairs of technologies, with a focus on the role of uncertainty. Nuclear and CCS have the most impact on abatement costs, with CCS mostly important at high levels of abatement. We show that CCS and Bio-electricity are complements, while most of the other energy technology pairs are substitutes. We also examine for stochastic dominance between R&D portfolios: given the uncertainty in R&D outcomes, we examine which portfolios would be preferred by all decision-makers, regardless of their attitude toward risk. We observe that portfolios with CCS tend to stochastically dominate those without CCS; and portfolios lacking CCS and Nuclear tend to be stochastically dominated by others. We find that the dominance of CCS becomes even stronger as uncertainty in climate damages increases. Finally, we show that there is significant value in carefully choosing a portfolio, as relatively small portfolios can dominate large portfolios. - Highlights: • We examine future energy scenarios in the face of R&D and climate uncertainty. • We examine the impact of advancement in energy technologies and pairs of technologies. • CCS complements Bio-electricity while most technology pairs are substitutes. • R&D portfolios without CCS are stochastically dominated by portfolios with CCS. • Higher damage uncertainty favors R&D development of CCS and Bio-electricity

  5. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  6. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Warner, Norman; Burkman, Lisa; Biron, H. C

    2008-01-01

    ...) scenario and the methodology used to generate and validate the scenario. The face of military team collaboration has changed due to gathering intelligence from broader and more diverse sources...

  7. Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Ki-Yong; Park, Hyun-Sik; Kwon, Tae-Soon

    2007-02-15

    A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics.

  8. Pre-Test Analysis of Major Scenarios for ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Euh, Dong-Jin; Choi, Ki-Yong; Park, Hyun-Sik; Kwon, Tae-Soon

    2007-02-01

    A thermal-hydraulic integral effect test facility, ATLAS was constructed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The ATLAS is a 1/2 reduced height and 1/288 volume scaled test facility based on the design features of the APR1400. The simulation capability of the ATLAS for major design basis accidents (DBAs), including a large-break loss-of-coolant (LBLOCA), DVI line break and main steam line break (MSLB) accidents, is evaluated by the best-estimate system code, MARS, with the same control logics, transient scenarios and nodalization scheme. The validity of the applied scaling law and the thermal-hydraulic similarity between the ATLAS and the APR1400 for the major design basis accidents are assessed. It is confirmed that the ATLAS has a capability of maintaining an overall similarity with the reference plant APR1400 for the major design basis accidents considered in the present study. However, depending on the accident scenarios, there are some inconsistencies in certain thermal hydraulic parameters. It is found that the inconsistencies are mainly due to the reduced power effect and the increased stored energy in the structure. The present similarity analysis was successful in obtaining a greater insight into the unique design features of the ATLAS and would be used for developing the optimized experimental procedures and control logics

  9. Scenario aggregation and analysis via Mean-Shift Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandelli, D.; Yilmaz, A.; Metzroth, K.; Aldemir, T.; Denning, R.

    2010-01-01

    A new generation of dynamic methodologies is being developed for nuclear reactor probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) which explicitly account for the time element in modeling the probabilistic system evolution and use numerical simulation tools to account for possible dependencies between failure events. The dynamic event tree (DET) approach is one of these methodologies. One challenge with dynamic PRA methodologies is the large amount of data they produce which may be difficult to analyze without appropriate software tools. The concept of 'data mining' is well known in the computer science community and several methodologies have been developed in order to extract useful information from a dataset with a large number of records. Using the dataset generated by the DET analysis of the reactor vessel auxiliary cooling system (RVACS) of an ABR-1000 for an aircraft crash recovery scenario and the Mean-Shift Methodology for data mining, it is shown how clusters of transients with common characteristics can be identified and classified. (authors)

  10. [Advantages and cost-benefit analysis of various teleradiology scenarios].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckermann, D; Wetekam, V; Hundt, W; Reiser, M

    1997-04-01

    With the increasing number of users and technical improvements, there are several application scenarios of teleradiology. To perform a cost-benefit analysis, an approach is presented, which focuses on both monetary and qualitative aspects. Process-related, qualitative and quantitative evaluations are described. The prestudy compares the radiological workflow before and after the introduction of a teleradiology system. A scoring model is part of the qualitative evaluation. The quantitative study focuses on costs and savings. Amortisation and a net present value of savings versus costs can be derived using dynamic investment methods. Savings can be achieved after a short time under ideal conditions, but there is no guarantee for a reimbursement for all systems.

  11. Reliability demonstration test planning using bayesian analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandran, Senthil Kumar; Arul, John A.

    2003-01-01

    In Nuclear Power Plants, the reliability of all the safety systems is very critical from the safety viewpoint and it is very essential that the required reliability requirements be met while satisfying the design constraints. From practical experience, it is found that the reliability of complex systems such as Safety Rod Drive Mechanism is of the order of 10 -4 with an uncertainty factor of 10. To demonstrate the reliability of such systems is prohibitive in terms of cost and time as the number of tests needed is very large. The purpose of this paper is to develop a Bayesian reliability demonstrating testing procedure for exponentially distributed failure times with gamma prior distribution on the failure rate which can be easily and effectively used to demonstrate component/subsystem/system reliability conformance to stated requirements. The important questions addressed in this paper are: With zero failures, how long one should perform the tests and how many components are required to conclude with a given degree of confidence, that the component under test, meets the reliability requirement. The procedure is explained with an example. This procedure can also be extended to demonstrate with more number of failures. The approach presented is applicable for deriving test plans for demonstrating component failure rates of nuclear power plants, as the failure data for similar components are becoming available in existing plants elsewhere. The advantages of this procedure are the criterion upon which the procedure is based is simple and pertinent, the fitting of the prior distribution is an integral part of the procedure and is based on the use of information regarding two percentiles of this distribution and finally, the procedure is straightforward and easy to apply in practice. (author)

  12. A probabilistic analysis of rapid boron dilution scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohut, P.; Diamond, D.J.

    1993-01-01

    A probabilistic and deterministic analysis of a rapid boron dilution scenario related to reactor restart was performed. The event is initiated by a loss of off-site power during the startup dilution process. The automatic restart of the charging pump in such cases may lead to the accumulation of a diluted slug of water in the lower plenum. The restart of the reactor coolant pumps may send the diluted slug through the core, adding sufficient reactivity to overcome the shutdown margin and cause a power excursion. The concern is that the power excursion is sufficient in certain circumstances to cause fuel damage. The estimated core damage frequency based on the scoping analysis is 1.0--3.0E-05/yr for the plants analyzed. These are relatively significant values when compared to desirable goals. The analysis contained assumptions related to plant specific design characteristics which may lead to non-conservative estimates. The most important conservative assumptions were that mixing of the injected diluted water is insignificant and that fuel damage occurs when the slug passes through the core

  13. Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.

    2008-01-01

    A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are

  14. Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

  15. Frequency Analysis of Failure Scenarios from Shale Gas Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abualfaraj, Noura; Gurian, Patrick L; Olson, Mira S

    2018-04-29

    This study identified and prioritized potential failure scenarios for natural gas drilling operations through an elicitation of people who work in the industry. A list of twelve failure scenarios of concern was developed focusing on specific events that may occur during the shale gas extraction process involving an operational failure or a violation of regulations. Participants prioritized the twelve scenarios based on their potential impact on the health and welfare of the general public, potential impact on worker safety, how well safety guidelines protect against their occurrence, and how frequently they occur. Illegal dumping of flowback water, while rated as the least frequently occurring scenario, was considered the scenario least protected by safety controls and the one of most concern to the general public. In terms of worker safety, the highest concern came from improper or inadequate use of personal protective equipment (PPE). While safety guidelines appear to be highly protective regarding PPE usage, inadequate PPE is the most directly witnessed failure scenario. Spills of flowback water due to equipment failure are of concern both with regards to the welfare of the general public and worker safety as they occur more frequently than any other scenario examined in this study.

  16. A Method of Fire Scenarios Identification in a Consolidated Fire Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Ho Gon; Han, Sang Hoon; Yang, Joon Eon

    2010-01-01

    Conventional fire PSA consider only two cases of fire scenarios, that is one for fire without propagation and the other for single propagation to neighboring compartment. Recently, a consolidated fire risk analysis using single fault tree (FT) was developed. However, the fire scenario identification in the new method is similar to conventional fire analysis method. The present study develops a new method of fire scenario identification in a consolidated fire risk analysis method. An equation for fire propagation is developed to identify fire scenario and a mapping method of fire scenarios into internal event risk model is discussed. Finally, an algorithm for automatic program is suggested

  17. Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosoni, Edoardo; Salo, Ahti; Zio, Enrico

    2018-04-01

    A major challenge in scenario analysis for the safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories pertains to the comprehensiveness of the set of scenarios selected for assessing the safety of the repository. Motivated by this challenge, we discuss the aspects of scenario analysis relevant to comprehensiveness. Specifically, we note that (1) it is necessary to make it clear why scenarios usually focus on a restricted set of features, events, and processes; (2) there is not yet consensus on the interpretation of comprehensiveness for guiding the generation of scenarios; and (3) there is a need for sound approaches to the treatment of epistemic uncertainties. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  18. Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duinker, Peter N.; Greig, Lorne A.

    2007-01-01

    Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change - e.g. climate change - on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development

  19. Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

  20. Analysis of uncertainty propagation in nuclear fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krivtchik, Guillaume

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear scenario studies model nuclear fleet over a given period. They enable the comparison of different options for the reactor fleet evolution, and the management of the future fuel cycle materials, from mining to disposal, based on criteria such as installed capacity per reactor technology, mass inventories and flows, in the fuel cycle and in the waste. Uncertainties associated with nuclear data and scenario parameters (fuel, reactors and facilities characteristics) propagate along the isotopic chains in depletion calculations, and through out the scenario history, which reduces the precision of the results. The aim of this work is to develop, implement and use a stochastic uncertainty propagation methodology adapted to scenario studies. The method chosen is based on development of depletion computation surrogate models, which reduce the scenario studies computation time, and whose parameters include perturbations of the depletion model; and fabrication of equivalence model which take into account cross-sections perturbations for computation of fresh fuel enrichment. Then the uncertainty propagation methodology is applied to different scenarios of interest, considering different options of evolution for the French PWR fleet with SFR deployment. (author) [fr

  1. G-computation demonstration in causal mediation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Aolin; Arah, Onyebuchi A.

    2015-01-01

    Recent work has considerably advanced the definition, identification and estimation of controlled direct, and natural direct and indirect effects in causal mediation analysis. Despite the various estimation methods and statistical routines being developed, a unified approach for effect estimation under different effect decomposition scenarios is still needed for epidemiologic research. G-computation offers such unification and has been used for total effect and joint controlled direct effect estimation settings, involving different types of exposure and outcome variables. In this study, we demonstrate the utility of parametric g-computation in estimating various components of the total effect, including (1) natural direct and indirect effects, (2) standard and stochastic controlled direct effects, and (3) reference and mediated interaction effects, using Monte Carlo simulations in standard statistical software. For each study subject, we estimated their nested potential outcomes corresponding to the (mediated) effects of an intervention on the exposure wherein the mediator was allowed to attain the value it would have under a possible counterfactual exposure intervention, under a pre-specified distribution of the mediator independent of any causes, or under a fixed controlled value. A final regression of the potential outcome on the exposure intervention variable was used to compute point estimates and bootstrap was used to obtain confidence intervals. Through contrasting different potential outcomes, this analytical framework provides an intuitive way of estimating effects under the recently introduced 3- and 4-way effect decomposition. This framework can be extended to complex multivariable and longitudinal mediation settings

  2. Temporal aspects in the development of a cascading-event crisis scenario: A pilot demonstration of the CRISMA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubrecht, Christoph; Almeida, Miguel; Polese, Maria; Reva, Valeria; Steinnocher, Klaus; Zuccaro, Giulio

    2013-04-01

    In this abstract we illustrate the various temporal aspects to be considered in a multi-hazard crisis scenario set up as pilot study in the EU-FP7 Integrated Project CRISMA. In the framework of CRISMA a simulation-based decision support system for crisis management is developed facilitating the modeling of realistic crisis scenarios, related pre-event vulnerabilities, as well as possible response actions and associated varying potential impacts on society. Both external factors driving crisis development and actions of the involved crisis management team are considered in the system setup. The presented case is a complex cascading-event crisis scenario that is initiated by an earthquake causing building collapse and a consequent gas pipeline failure that triggers a follow-up fire in a nearby forest with potential to spread and endangering a village of the neighborhood. In terms of the hazard components, major earthquakes are rapid-onset events that can occur at any time without warning while fires are rather slow-progressing hazards usually allowing a certain lead time for preparations. In our scenario, which is based on the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake in Italy, a series of low-magnitude events preceding the main shock over a few months increases population awareness and at the same time brings disaster managers to assess risks and evaluate evacuation options already in the pre-disaster phase. This seismic swarm and the associated period of increased general awareness thus add an additional temporal component to the scenario, initiating response considerations earlier as when compared to a single shock scenario. In addition, the seismic vulnerability of buildings may increase due to damage accumulation, with higher probability of collapse at a given earthquake intensity. With regard to best possible impact mitigation, detailed spatio-temporal exposure and vulnerability characteristics of population and associated assets have to be analyzed for all crisis stages

  3. Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Santos, Joost R

    2016-05-01

    Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation. Priorities for protective measures and continuity of operations planning must consider the economic impact of such disruptions across a variety of scenarios. This article introduces new performance metrics to characterize resiliency in interdependency modeling and also integrates scenario-based methods to measure economic sensitivity to sudden-onset disruptions. The methods will be demonstrated on a U.S. port responsible for handling $36.1 billion of cargo annually. The methods will be useful to port management, private industry supply chain planning, and transportation infrastructure management. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Pre-test analysis of ATLAS SBO with RCP seal leakage scenario using MARS code

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pham, Quang Huy; Lee, Sang Young; Oh, Seung Jong [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    This study presents a pre-test calculation for the Advanced Thermal-hydraulic Test Loop for Accident Simulation (ATLAS) SBO experiment with RCP seal leakage scenario. Initially, turbine-driven auxfeed water pumps are used. Then, outside cooling water injection method is used for long term cooling. The analysis results would be useful for conducting the experiment to verify the APR 1400 extended SBO optimum mitigation strategy using outside cooling water injection in future. The pre-test calculation for ATLAS extended SBO with RCP seal leakage and outside cooling water injection scenario is performed. After Fukushima nuclear accident, the capability of coping with the extended station blackout (SBO) becomes important. Many NPPs are applying FLEX approach as main coping strategies for extended SBO scenarios. In FLEX strategies, outside cooling water injection to reactor cooling system (RCS) and steam generators (SGs) is considered as an effective method to remove residual heat and maintain the inventory of the systems during the accident. It is worthwhile to examine the soundness of outside cooling water injection method for extended SBO mitigation by both calculation and experimental demonstration. From the calculation results, outside cooling water injection into RCS and SGs is verified as an effective method during extended SBO when RCS and SGs depressurization is sufficiently performed.

  5. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-01-01

    Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

  6. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-07-01

    Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economics. Scenarios include the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle (as a reference scenario), a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel and two fuel cycles with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet or in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS).Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand. Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios respectively.

  7. The advanced scenario analysis for performance assessment of geological disposal. Pt. 3. Main document

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohkubo, Hiroo

    2004-02-01

    In 'H12 Project to Establish Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' an approach that is based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the peer review. However it was also suggested that there are issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. Therefore, in the current financial year, in the first place a scenario development methodology was constructed taking into account the requirements identified last year. Furthermore a practical work-frame was developed to support the activities related to the scenario development. This work-frame was applied to an example scenario to check its applicability and identify issues for further research. Secondly, scenario analysis method with regard to perturbation scenario has been studied. First of all, a survey of perturbation scenario discussed in different countries has been carried out and its assessment has been examined. Especially, in Japan, technical information has been classified in order to assess three scenarios, which are seismic activity, faulting and igneous activity. Then, on the basis of assumed occurrence pattern and influence pattern for each perturbation scenario, variant type that should be considered in this analysis has been identified, and the concept of treatment, modeling data and requirements have been clarified. As a result of these researches, a future direction for advanced scenario analysis on performance assessment has been indicated, as well as associated issues to be discussed have been clarified. (author)

  8. TRANSPORTATION BOT SCHEMES FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCING SCENARIO ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    WEI, Chien-Hung; CHUNG, Ming-Chih

    2002-01-01

    Transportation Build-Operate-Transfer financing projects have larger payment risks and failure possibilities than other financing projects, and these factors are essential to financing scenarios. The changes of financing scenarios not only affect private sectors' financing process but the conflict between private sectors and banks. This study broadly reviews relevant factors affecting BOT financing strategies, interviews relevant experts and then uses scenario analysis to design a questionnai...

  9. Risk Analysis for Road Tunnels – A Metamodel to Efficiently Integrate Complex Fire Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berchtold, Florian; Knaust, Christian; Arnold, Lukas

    2018-01-01

    Fires in road tunnels constitute complex scenarios with interactions between the fire, tunnel users and safety measures. More and more methodologies for risk analysis quantify the consequences of these scenarios with complex models. Examples for complex models are the computational fluid dynamics...... complex scenarios in risk analysis. To face this challenge, we improved the metamodel used in the methodology for risk analysis presented on ISTSS 2016. In general, a metamodel quickly interpolates the consequences of few scenarios simulated with the complex models to a large number of arbitrary scenarios...... used in risk analysis. Now, our metamodel consists of the projection array-based design, the moving least squares method, and the prediction interval to quantify the metamodel uncertainty. Additionally, we adapted the projection array-based design in two ways: the focus of the sequential refinement...

  10. Analysis of advanced european nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economical estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino Rodriguez, I.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Martin-Fuertes, F.

    2013-01-01

    In this work the transition from the existing Light Water Reactors (LWR) to the advanced reactors is analyzed, including Generation III+ reactors in a European framework. Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options have been addressed. The first scenario (i.e., reference) is the current fleet using LWR technology and open fuel cycle. The second scenario assumes a full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U-Pu MOX fuel. The third scenario is a modification of the second one introducing Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet. Finally, in the fourth scenario, the LWR fleet is replaced using FR with MOX fuel as well as Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS) for MA transmutation. All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for a period of 200 years looking for equilibrium mass flows. The simulations were made using the TR-EVOL code, a tool for fuel cycle studies developed by CIEMAT. The results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (U and Pu). Concerning to no transmutation cases, the second scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario, although the MA inventory increases. The transmutation scenarios show that elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires on one hand a maximum of 33% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 26 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation). On the other hand a maximum number of ADS plants accounting for 5% of electricity generation are predicted in the fourth scenario (i.e., 35 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the estimations show an increase of LCOE (Levelized cost of electricity) - averaged over the whole period - with respect to the reference scenario of 21% and 29% for FR and FR with transmutation scenarios respectively, and 34% for the fourth scenario. (authors)

  11. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources planning and management under uncertainty in the Zayandehrud river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safavi, Hamid R.; Golmohammadi, Mohammad H.; Sandoval-Solis, Samuel

    2016-08-01

    The goal of this study is to develop and analyze three scenarios in the Zayandehrud river basin in Iran using a model already built and calibrated by Safavi et al. (2015) that has results for the baseline scenario. Results from the baseline scenario show that water demands will be supplied at the cost of depletion of surface and ground water resources, making this scenario undesirable and unsustainable. Supply Management, Demand Management, and Meta (supply and demand management) scenarios are the selected scenarios in this study. They are to be developed and declared into the Zayandehrud model to assess and evaluate the imminent status of the basin. Certain strategies will be employed for this purpose to improve and rectify the current management policies. The five performance criteria of time-based and volumetric reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and maximum deficit will be employed in the process of scenario analysis and evaluation. The results obtained from the performance criteria will be summed up into a so-called 'Water Resources Sustainability Index' to facilitate comparison among the likely trade-offs. Uncertainties arising from historical data, management policies, rainfall-runoff model, demand priorities, and performance criteria are considered in the proposed conceptual framework and modeled by appropriate approaches. Results show that the Supply Management scenario can be used to improve upon the demand supply but that it has no tangible effects on the improvement of the resources in the study region. In this regard, the Demand Management scenario is found to be more effective than the water supply one although it still remains unacceptable. Results of the Meta scenario indicate that both the supply and demand management scenarios must be applied if the water resources are to be safeguarded against degradation and depletion. In other words, the supply management scenario is necessary but not adequate; rather, it must be coupled to the demand

  12. Analysis of Brazilian SHP policy and its regulation scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tiago Filho, Geraldo Lucio; Rocha Galhardo, Camila; Cassia Barbosa, Adriana de; Mambeli Barros, Regina; Gracas Braga da Silva, Fernando das

    2011-01-01

    This article presents the main regulatory changes that occurred in the Brazilian power sector in 2009, along with the impacts these changes caused on the market, especially related to small hydropower (<30 MW). This study addresses regulatory issues based on inventory studies and records of basic projects, changes related to the compensation of the assured energy of SHPs in the Brazilian energy reallocation market, the socio-economic impact resulting from the construction of SHPs, SHPs in alternative resource auctions and finally the general outlook for the growth scenario for SHPs in Brazil according to the ten-year plan (2010-2019). The overall conclusions of this investigation were that the 2008/2009 biennium was a period of great changes in the regulation of small hydropower plants in Brazil, and the SHP market has shown maturity. Additionally, despite SHP being a type of technology that is completely dominated by domestic industry, in recent years, they have experienced policy disincentives caused by changes to rules that inhibit their growth. - Highlights: → Main regulatory changes in Brazilian Power Sector that have occurred in 2009. → The impact of these changes caused on market, especially about SHPs (<30 MW). → The Brazilian growth scenario for SHPs according to the ten-year plan (2010-2019). → 2008/2009 biennium was a period of changes in the Brazilian regulation of SHPs. → SHP is a type of technology that is completely dominated by domestic industry.

  13. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  14. Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

    2015-05-12

    This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

  15. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melaina, Marc

    2015-04-21

    This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

  16. A scenario-driven approach for value, risk and cost analysis in system architecting for innovation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ionita, M.T.; America, P.H.M.; Hammer, D.K.; Obbink, J.H.; Trienekens, J.J.M.; Magee, J.; Szyperski, C.; Bosch, J.

    2004-01-01

    We present a quantitative method for scenario-driven value, risk, and cost analysis when proposing new system architectures for innovation projects. The method helps to articulate the relative benefits and/or disadvantages of the proposed set of scenarios in the early architecting phases of a new

  17. Scenario analysis of false indication in computer-control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, Wan-Hui; Fan, Chin-Feng

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new failure mode and effect for safety-critical systems is proposed. ► False indication is the most dreadful kind of partial failures. ► A model-based simulation approach to generate failure scenarios is proposed. ► Simulation results showed that multiple errors may cause undesired consequences. ► An assertion-based method to detect false indication problems is provided. -- Abstract: Computer control may cause additional failure modes and effects that are new to analogue systems. False indication is one such failure mode that may bring unknown risks to a system. False indication refers to the problem when part of a system fails while other processes still work, and the failure is not revealed to operators. This paper presents a model-based simulation approach to systematically generate potential false indication and unintended consequences. Experiments showed that once a false indication occurs, it may have drastic effects on system safety. False indication can mislead the operator to perform adverse actions or no action. Therefore, we propose an assertion-based detection method to alleviate such failures. Our assertions contain process/device dependencies, timing relations and physical conservation rules. With these assertions, the operator may be alerted at run time. The proposed technique can reduce false indication problem. Moreover, it can also be used to assist the system design.

  18. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  19. An economic analysis of different cannabis decriminalization scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogrodnik, Marysia; Kopp, Pierre; Bongaerts, Xavier; Tecco, Juan M

    2015-09-01

    Cannabis is the most widely used illegal drug in European countries. In countries with repressive cannabis policies, prevalence is not lower than in those with tolerant laws. Repressive policies not only have uncertain benefits but they are also expensive. Economists tend to believe that good public policies minimize social costs; that is, they help to improve collective wellbeing at a lower cost. The paper draws on a review of international literature on cannabis legislative models around the world. After a description of some of the fundamental concepts of a market economy, several existing policy scenarios will be presented and analyzed from an economic perspective. Strength and weaknesses will be summarized for each alternative. In addition to consumption tolerance in countries such as the Netherlands, recent decriminalization of domestic markets in the Unites States and Uruguay present alternatives to reduce the negative impact of cannabis on society. Earlier initiation age and rise in consumption are unintended potential consequences of decriminalization that need to be addressed by public authorities when designing a liberalized cannabis policy environment. Price is a key variable that needs to be addressed to prevent a rise in consumption. Repressive cannabis policies are expensive and have limited impact on consumption. Consumption legalization significantly reduces expenses for repression and law enforcement, allowing for the allocation of more resources to other targets such as education and prevention. With legalization of supply along with consumption, repression and law enforcement costs are reduced even further. Moreover, a legal market would create employment and generate tax revenues that could be allocated to the prevention of increased consumption. Legalizing cannabis would not lead to a sudden rise in consumption, providing the duty imposed by the state kept the product at its current price.

  20. Data Analysis for ARRA Early Fuel Cell Market Demonstrations (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, J.; Wipke, K.; Sprik, S.; Ramsden, T.

    2010-05-01

    Presentation about ARRA Early Fuel Cell Market Demonstrations, including an overview of the ARRE Fuel Cell Project, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's data analysis objectives, deployment composite data products, and planned analyses.

  1. Scenario Analysis of Soil and Water Conservation in Xiejia Watershed Based on Improved CSLE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jieying; Yu, Ming; Wu, Yong; Huang, Yao; Nie, Yawen

    2018-01-01

    According to the existing research results and related data, use the scenario analysis method, to evaluate the effects of different soil and water conservation measures on soil erosion in a small watershed. Based on the analysis of soil erosion scenarios and model simulation budgets in the study area, it is found that all scenarios simulated soil erosion rates are lower than the present situation of soil erosion in 2013. Soil and water conservation measures are more effective in reducing soil erosion than soil and water conservation biological measures and soil and water conservation tillage measures.

  2. Physical studies of transmutation scenarios. The Muse program with the Masurca facility: a step towards an hybrid demonstrator?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouchard, J.; Leconte, Ph.; Doubre, H.; Bhatnagar, V.P.; Carbonnier, J.L.; Chawla, R.; Bernard, H.

    2002-01-01

    The Muse research program, which started in 1995, is a contribution to the development of a dedicated subcritical accelerator driven system (ADS) for the transmutation of minor actinides produced by conventional nuclear power plants. The Muse experiments aim at making a parametric study of different reactor core compositions with different subcritical levels and supplied by different sources in order to demonstrate that the measurement techniques and the calculation charts established for critical FBRs remain valid with an hybrid system. The 4. phase of the Muse program concerns the design, realization and installation of the Genepi (generator of intense pulse neutrons) deutons accelerator at the Masurca facility of Cadarache (France) for the understanding of the neutronic behaviour of an ADS, the definition of a reference calculation scheme, and the development of specific experimental techniques for dynamical measurements. This document brings together the presentations (transparencies) given at the SFEN technical meeting of May 30, 2002 about the Muse program. (J.S.)

  3. Demonstration in the DIII-D tokamak of an alternate baseline scenario for ITER and other burning plasma experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luce, T.C.; Ferron, J.R.; Wade, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    Discharges which can satisfy the high gain goals of burning plasma experiments have been demonstrated in the DIII-D tokamak in stationary conditions with relatively low plasma current (q 95 > 4). A figure of merit for fusion gain β N H 89 / q 95 2 2 has been maintained at values corresponding to Q = 10 operation in a burning plasma for >6 s or 36 τ E and 2 τ R . The key element is the relaxation of the current profile to a stationary state with q min > 1, which allows stable operation up to the no-wall ideal β limit. These plasmas maintain particle balance by active pumping rather than transient wall conditioning. The reduced current lessens significantly the potential for structural damage in the event of a major disruption. (author)

  4. Proposed methodology for completion of scenario analysis for the Basalt Waste Isolation Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberds, W.J.; Plum, R.J.; Visca, P.J.

    1984-11-01

    This report presents the methodology to complete an assessment of postclosure performance, considering all credible scenarios, including the nominal case, for a proposed repository for high-level nuclear waste at the Hanford Site, Washington State. The methodology consists of defensible techniques for identifying and screening scenarios, and for then assessing the risks associated with each. The results of the scenario analysis are used to comprehensively determine system performance and/or risk for evaluation of compliance with postclosure performance criteria (10 CFR 60 and 40 CFR 191). In addition to describing the proposed methodology, this report reviews available methodologies for scenario analysis, discusses pertinent performance assessment and uncertainty concepts, advises how to implement the methodology (including the organizational requirements and a description of tasks) and recommends how to use the methodology in guiding future site characterization, analysis, and engineered subsystem design work. 36 refs., 24 figs., 1 tab

  5. Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodríguez, Iván Merino; Álvarez-Velarde, Francisco; Martín-Fuertes, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Four fuel cycle scenarios have been analyzed in resources and economic terms. • Scenarios involve Once-Through, Pu burning, and MA transmutation strategies. • No restrictions were found in terms of uranium and plutonium availability. • The best case cost and the impact of their uncertainties to the LCOE were analyzed. - Abstract: Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CP-ESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U–Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR E VOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of

  6. 40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... overfilling and spill, or overpressurization and venting through relief valves or rupture disks; and (v... Consequence Analysis Guidance or any commercially or publicly available air dispersion modeling techniques, provided the techniques account for the specified modeling conditions and are recognized by industry as...

  7. Analysis of the thermomechanical behavior of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under design loading scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernardi, D., E-mail: davide.bernardi@enea.it [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy); Arena, P.; Bongiovì, G.; Di Maio, P.A. [Dipartimento di Energia, Ingegneria dell’Informazione e Modelli Matematici, Università di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, Palermo (Italy); Frisoni, M. [ENEA Bologna, Via Martiri di Monte Sole 4, Bologna (Italy); Miccichè, G.; Serra, M. [ENEA Brasimone, Camugnano, BO (Italy)

    2015-10-15

    In the framework of the IFMIF Engineering Validation and Engineering Design Activities (IFMIF/EVEDA) phase, ENEA is responsible for the design of the European concept of the IFMIF lithium target system which foresees the possibility to periodically replace only the most irradiated and thus critical component (i.e., the backplate) while continuing to operate the rest of the target for a longer period (the so-called bayonet backplate concept). In this work, the results of the steady state thermomechanical analysis of the IFMIF bayonet target assembly under two different design loading scenarios (a “hot” scenario and a “cold” scenario) are briefly reported highlighting the relevant indications obtained with respect to the fulfillment of the design requirements. In particular, the analyses have shown that in the hot scenario the temperatures reached in the target assembly are within the material acceptable limits while in the cold scenario transition below the ductile to brittle transition temperature (DBTT) cannot be excluded. Moreover, results indicate that the contact between backplate and high flux test module is avoided and that the overall structural integrity of the system is assured in both scenarios. However, stress linearization analysis reveals that ITER Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) design rules are not always met along the selected paths at backplate middle plane section in the hot scenario, thus suggesting the need of a revision of the backplate design or a change of the operating conditions.

  8. Third generation algae biofuels in Italy by 2030: A scenario analysis using Bayesian networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gambelli, Danilo; Alberti, Francesca; Solfanelli, Francesco; Vairo, Daniela; Zanoli, Raffaele

    2017-01-01

    We have analysed the potential for biofuels from microalgae in the Italian biofuels context. This scenario analysis considers alternative pathways for the adoption of biofuels from microalgae by the year 2030. The scenarios were developed using a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian networks, through a structured process for elicitation of expert knowledge. We have identified the most and least favourable scenarios in terms of the expected likelihood for the development of the market of biofuels from microalgae, through which we have focussed on the contribution of economic and policy aspects in the development of the sector. A detailed analysis of the contribution of each variable in the context of the scenarios is also provided. These data represent a starting point for the evaluation of different policy options for the future biofuel market in Italy. The best scenario shows a 75% probability that biofuels from microalgae will exceed 20% of the biofuel market by 2030. This is conditional on the improvement and development of the technological changes and environmental policies, and of the markets for bioenergy and novel foods derived from microalgae. - Highlights: • Scenarios for Third generation biofuels are modelled by Bayesian networks. • Best and worst scenarios for year 2030 are presented. • The role of environmental policy is analysed. • Energy and food-feed markets influence the share of biofuels from micro-algae.

  9. Line outage contingency analysis including the system islanding scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hazarika, D.; Bhuyan, S. [Assam Engineering College, Jalukbari, Guwahati 781013 (India); Chowdhury, S.P. [Jadavpur University, Jadavpur, Kolkata 700 032 (India)

    2006-05-15

    The paper describes an algorithm for determining the line outage contingency of a line taking into account of line over load effect in remaining lines and subsequent tripping of over loaded line(s) leading to possible system split or islanding of a power system. The optimally ordered sparse [B'], [B'] matrices for the integrated system are used for load flow analysis to determine modified values of voltage phase angles [{delta}] and bus voltages [V] to determine the over loading effect on the remaining lines due to outage of a selected line outage contingency. In case of over loading in remaining line(s), the over loaded lines are removed from the system and a topology processor is used to find the islands. A fast decoupled load flow (FDLF) analysis is carried out for finding out the system variables for the islanded (or single island) system by incorporating appropriate modification in the [B'] and [B'] matrices of the integrated system. Line outage indices based on line overload, loss of load, loss of generation and static voltage stability are computed to indicate severity of a line outage of a selected line. (author)

  10. Strategies for cost-effective carbon reductions: A sensitivity analysis of alternative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gumerman, Etan; Koomey, Jonathan G.; Brown, Marilyn

    2001-01-01

    Analyses of alternative futures often present results for a limited set of scenarios, with little if any sensitivity analysis to identify the factors affecting the scenario results. This approach creates an artificial impression of certainty associated with the scenarios considered, and inhibits understanding of the underlying forces. This paper summarizes the economic and carbon savings sensitivity analysis completed for the Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000). Its 19 sensitivity cases provide insight into the costs and carbon-reduction impacts of a carbon permit trading system, demand-side efficiency programs, and supply-side policies. Impacts under different natural gas and oil price trajectories are also examined. The results provide compelling evidence that policy opportunities exist to reduce carbon emissions and save society money

  11. Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Su; Dongjie, Guan; Weici, Su; Weijun, Gao

    2017-11-01

    The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.

  12. Analysis of ITER upper port plug remote handling maintenance scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koning, J.F.; Baar, M.R. de; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Heemskerk, C.J.M.; Ronden, D.M.S.; Schuth, W.J.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Remote Handling Study Centre: providing RH compatibility analysis. ► Simulation: virtual reality including kinematics and realtime physics simulator. ► Applied on analysis of RH compatibility of Upper Launcher component replacement. ► Resulting in lowered maintenance procedure time and lessons learned. - Abstract: The ITER tokamak has a modular design, with port plugs, blanket modules and divertor cassettes. This set-up allows for maintenance of diagnostics, heating systems and first wall elements. The maintenance can be done in situ, or in the Hot Cell. Safe and effective remote handling (RH) will be ensured by the RH requirements and standards. Compliance is verified through remote handling compatibility assessments at the ITER Design Review milestones. The Remote Handling Study Centre at FOM Institute DIFFER is created to study ITER RH maintenance processes at different levels of complexity, from relatively simple situational awareness checks using snap-shots in the CAD system, time studies using virtual reality (VR) animations, to extensive operational sequence validation with multiple operators in real-time. The multi-operator facility mimics an RH work-cell as presently foreseen in the ITER RH control room. Novel VR technology is used to create a realistic setting in which a team of RH operators can interact with virtual ITER environments. A physics engine is used to emulate real-time contact interaction as to provide realistic haptic feed-back. Complex interactions between the RH operators and the control room system software are tested. RH task performance is quantified and operational resource usage estimated. The article provides a description and lessons learned from a recent study on replacement of the Steering Mirror Assembly on the ECRH (Electron Cyclotron Resonance Heating) Upper Launcher port plug.

  13. Analysis of ITER upper port plug remote handling maintenance scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koning, J.F., E-mail: j.f.koning@heemskerk-innovative.nl [FOM Institute DIFFER - Dutch Institute for Fundamental Energy Research, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster and ITER-NL, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Baar, M.R. de; Elzendoorn, B.S.Q. [FOM Institute DIFFER - Dutch Institute for Fundamental Energy Research, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster and ITER-NL, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Heemskerk, C.J.M. [Heemskerk Innovative Technology, Noordwijk (Netherlands); Ronden, D.M.S.; Schuth, W.J. [FOM Institute DIFFER - Dutch Institute for Fundamental Energy Research, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster and ITER-NL, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

    2012-08-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Remote Handling Study Centre: providing RH compatibility analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Simulation: virtual reality including kinematics and realtime physics simulator. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Applied on analysis of RH compatibility of Upper Launcher component replacement. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Resulting in lowered maintenance procedure time and lessons learned. - Abstract: The ITER tokamak has a modular design, with port plugs, blanket modules and divertor cassettes. This set-up allows for maintenance of diagnostics, heating systems and first wall elements. The maintenance can be done in situ, or in the Hot Cell. Safe and effective remote handling (RH) will be ensured by the RH requirements and standards. Compliance is verified through remote handling compatibility assessments at the ITER Design Review milestones. The Remote Handling Study Centre at FOM Institute DIFFER is created to study ITER RH maintenance processes at different levels of complexity, from relatively simple situational awareness checks using snap-shots in the CAD system, time studies using virtual reality (VR) animations, to extensive operational sequence validation with multiple operators in real-time. The multi-operator facility mimics an RH work-cell as presently foreseen in the ITER RH control room. Novel VR technology is used to create a realistic setting in which a team of RH operators can interact with virtual ITER environments. A physics engine is used to emulate real-time contact interaction as to provide realistic haptic feed-back. Complex interactions between the RH operators and the control room system software are tested. RH task performance is quantified and operational resource usage estimated. The article provides a description and lessons learned from a recent study on replacement of the Steering Mirror Assembly on the ECRH (Electron Cyclotron Resonance Heating) Upper Launcher port plug.

  14. Worst-case Throughput Analysis for Parametric Rate and Parametric Actor Execution Time Scenario-Aware Dataflow Graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mladen Skelin

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenario-aware dataflow (SADF is a prominent tool for modeling and analysis of dynamic embedded dataflow applications. In SADF the application is represented as a finite collection of synchronous dataflow (SDF graphs, each of which represents one possible application behaviour or scenario. A finite state machine (FSM specifies the possible orders of scenario occurrences. The SADF model renders the tightest possible performance guarantees, but is limited by its finiteness. This means that from a practical point of view, it can only handle dynamic dataflow applications that are characterized by a reasonably sized set of possible behaviours or scenarios. In this paper we remove this limitation for a class of SADF graphs by means of SADF model parametrization in terms of graph port rates and actor execution times. First, we formally define the semantics of the model relevant for throughput analysis based on (max,+ linear system theory and (max,+ automata. Second, by generalizing some of the existing results, we give the algorithms for worst-case throughput analysis of parametric rate and parametric actor execution time acyclic SADF graphs with a fully connected, possibly infinite state transition system. Third, we demonstrate our approach on a few realistic applications from digital signal processing (DSP domain mapped onto an embedded multi-processor architecture.

  15. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodwin, B W; Stephens, M E; Davison, C C; Johnson, L H; Zach, R

    1994-12-01

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada`s nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices.

  16. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, B.W.; Stephens, M.E.; Davison, C.C.; Johnson, L.H.; Zach, R.

    1994-12-01

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices

  17. A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

    2017-10-01

    Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global

  18. AEP Ohio gridSMART Demonstration Project Real-Time Pricing Demonstration Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widergren, Steven E.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Fuller, Jason C.; Chassin, David P.; Somani, Abhishek; Marinovici, Maria C.; Hammerstrom, Janelle L.

    2014-02-01

    This report contributes initial findings from an analysis of significant aspects of the gridSMART® Real-Time Pricing (RTP) – Double Auction demonstration project. Over the course of four years, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) worked with American Electric Power (AEP), Ohio and Battelle Memorial Institute to design, build, and operate an innovative system to engage residential consumers and their end-use resources in a participatory approach to electric system operations, an incentive-based approach that has the promise of providing greater efficiency under normal operating conditions and greater flexibility to react under situations of system stress. The material contained in this report supplements the findings documented by AEP Ohio in the main body of the gridSMART report. It delves into three main areas: impacts on system operations, impacts on households, and observations about the sensitivity of load to price changes.

  19. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J. [Idaho National Laboratory, Roberts and Folkers Associates, LLC, Idaho Falls, ID 83404 (United States)

    2006-07-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  20. Scenario-based approach to risk analysis in support of cyber security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gertman, D. I.; Folkers, R.; Roberts, J.

    2006-01-01

    The US infrastructure is continually challenged by hostile nation states and others who would do us harm. Cyber vulnerabilities and weaknesses are potential targets and are the result of years of construction and technological improvement in a world less concerned with security than is currently the case. As a result, cyber attack presents a class of challenges for which we are just beginning to prepare. What has been done in the nuclear, chemical and energy sectors as a means of anticipating and preparing for randomly occurring accidents and off-normal events is to develop scenarios as a means by which to prioritize and quantify risk and to take action. However, the number of scenarios risk analysts can develop is almost limitless. How do we ascertain which scenario has the greatest merit? One of the more important contributions of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) has been to quantify the initiating event probability associated with various classes of accidents; and to quantify the occurrence of various conditions, i.e., end-states, as a function of these important accident sequences. Typically, various classes of conditions are represented by scenarios and are quantified in terms of cut sets and binned into end states. For example, the nuclear industry has a well-defined set of initiating events that are studied in assessing risk. The maturation of risk analysis for cyber security from accounting for barriers or looking at conditions statically to one of ascertaining the probability associated with certain events is, in part, dependent upon the adoption of a scenario-based approach. For example, scenarios take into account threats to personnel and public safety; economic damage, and compromises to major operational and safety functions. Scenarios reflect system, equipment, and component configurations as well as key human-system interactions related to event detection, diagnosis, mitigation and restoration of systems. As part of a cyber attack directed toward

  1. TRANSPORTATION BOT SCHEMES FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCING SCENARIO ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Hung WEI

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Transportation Build-Operate-Transfer financing projects have larger payment risks and failure possibilities than other financing projects, and these factors are essential to financing scenarios. The changes of financing scenarios not only affect private sectors' financing process but the conflict between private sectors and banks. This study broadly reviews relevant factors affecting BOT financing strategies, interviews relevant experts and then uses scenario analysis to design a questionnaire to find out the most important factors affecting BOT financing. The findings of this study are four major factors affecting public and private financing scenarios. In this paper, we also propose some suggestions as possible complements to public and private sector financing strategies.

  2. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

    2013-01-01

    the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

  3. Analysis techniques for background rejection at the Majorana Demonstrator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuestra, Clara [University of Washington; Rielage, Keith Robert [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Elliott, Steven Ray [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Xu, Wenqin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Goett, John Jerome III [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2015-06-11

    The MAJORANA Collaboration is constructing the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR, an ultra-low background, 40-kg modular HPGe detector array to search for neutrinoless double beta decay in 76Ge. In view of the next generation of tonne-scale Ge-based 0νββ-decay searches that will probe the neutrino mass scale in the inverted-hierarchy region, a major goal of the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is to demonstrate a path forward to achieving a background rate at or below 1 count/tonne/year in the 4 keV region of interest around the Q-value at 2039 keV. The background rejection techniques to be applied to the data include cuts based on data reduction, pulse shape analysis, event coincidences, and time correlations. The Point Contact design of the DEMONSTRATOR's germanium detectors allows for significant reduction of gamma background.

  4. Analysis of Skylab IV fluid mechanic science demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, M. G.; Bourgeois, S. V.

    1975-01-01

    Several science demonstrations performed on Skylab III and IV were concerned with the behavior of fluid drops free floating in microgravity. These demonstrations, with large liquid drops, included the oscillation, rotation, impact and coalescence, and air injection into the drops. Rayleigh's analysis of the oscillation of spherical drops of a liquid predicts accurately the effect of size and surface tension on the frequency of vibrated water globules in the Skylab demonstration. However, damping occurred much faster than predicted by Lamb's or Scriven's analyses of the damping time for spherical drops. The impact demonstrations indicated that a minimum velocity is necessary to overcome surface forces and effect a coalescence, but a precise criterion for the coalescence of liquids in low g could not be determined.

  5. Security analysis of standards-driven communication protocols for healthcare scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masi, Massimiliano; Pugliese, Rosario; Tiezzi, Francesco

    2012-12-01

    The importance of the Electronic Health Record (EHR), that stores all healthcare-related data belonging to a patient, has been recognised in recent years by governments, institutions and industry. Initiatives like the Integrating the Healthcare Enterprise (IHE) have been developed for the definition of standard methodologies for secure and interoperable EHR exchanges among clinics and hospitals. Using the requisites specified by these initiatives, many large scale projects have been set up for enabling healthcare professionals to handle patients' EHRs. The success of applications developed in these contexts crucially depends on ensuring such security properties as confidentiality, authentication, and authorization. In this paper, we first propose a communication protocol, based on the IHE specifications, for authenticating healthcare professionals and assuring patients' safety. By means of a formal analysis carried out by using the specification language COWS and the model checker CMC, we reveal a security flaw in the protocol thus demonstrating that to simply adopt the international standards does not guarantee the absence of such type of flaws. We then propose how to emend the IHE specifications and modify the protocol accordingly. Finally, we show how to tailor our protocol for application to more critical scenarios with no assumptions on the communication channels. To demonstrate feasibility and effectiveness of our protocols we have fully implemented them.

  6. Case studies of scenario analysis for adaptive management of natural resource and infrastructure systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hamilton, M.C.; Thekdi, S.A.; Jenicek, E.M.

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources and infrastructure systems for sustainability is complicated by uncertainties in the human and natural environment. Moreover, decisions are further complicated by contradictory views, values, and concerns that are rarely made explicit. Scenario analysis can play...... of emergent conditions and help to avoid regret and belated action. The purpose of this paper is to present several case studies in natural resources and infrastructure systems management where scenario analysis has been used to aide decision making under uncertainty. The case studies include several resource...... and infrastructure systems: (1) water resources (2) land-use corridors (3) energy infrastructure, and (4) coastal climate change adaptation. The case studies emphasize a participatory approach, where scenario analysis becomes a means of incorporating diverse stakeholder concerns and experience. This approach...

  7. Cosmogonic scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfven, H.; Arrhenius, G.

    1985-05-01

    A recent analysis demonstrates that the Saturnian C ring and essential features of the B and A rings agrees with the plasma cosmogony approach with an accuracy of about 1% or even better. This starts a transition of cosmogony from speculation to real science. Based on the monographs by Alfven and Arrhenius on the evolution of the solar system a cosmogonic scenario is tentatively proposed. This outlines the evolution of an interstellar cloud and the formation of stars surrounded by solar nebulae under the combined action of gravitational and electromagnetic forces. Further, matter falling in from the solar nebula towards the sun is processed by newly clarified electromagnetic processes and a plasma-planetesimal transition (PPT) occurs. Planetesimals accrete to planets and around some of them the same process in miniature leads to the formation of satellites. Also the origin of comets is discussed. (author)

  8. Transport energy demand in Andorra. Assessing private car futures through sensitivity and scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travesset-Baro, Oriol; Gallachóir, Brian P.Ó.; Jover, Eric; Rosas-Casals, Marti

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a model which estimates current car fleet energy consumption in Andorra and forecasts such consumption as a reference scenario. The base-year model is built through a bottom-up methodology using vehicle registration and technical inspection data. The model forecasts energy consumption up to 2050, taking into account the fleet structure, the car survival profile, trends in activity of the various car categories, and the fuel price and income elasticities that affect car stock and total fleet activity. It provides an initial estimate of private car energy demand in Andorra and charts a baseline scenario that describes a hypothetical future based on historical trends. A local sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the most sensitive input parameters and study the effect of its variability. In addition, the scenario analysis explores the most uncertain future aspects which can cause important variability in the results with respect to the Reference scenario and provides a broad estimate of potential energy savings related to different policy strategies. - Highlights: •A private car energy model is built using aggregated available data. •Andorra's current car fleet energy consumption is estimated and forecasted to 2050. •Potential energy savings have been estimated using sensitivity and scenario analysis.

  9. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Belt, Juan A.B.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context.

  10. A scenario analysis of investment options for the Cuban power sector using the MARKAL model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, Evelyn L.; Chambers, Adam; Delaquil, Pat; Goldstein, Gary [International Resources Group, 1211 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036 (United States); Belt, Juan A.B. [US Agency for International Development, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20523-3800 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    The Cuban power sector faces a need for extensive investment in new generating capacity, under a large number of uncertainties regarding future conditions, including: rate of demand growth, fluctuations in fuel prices, access to imported fuel, and access to investment capital for construction of new power plants and development of fuel import infrastructure. To identify cost effective investment strategies under these uncertainties, a supply and power sector MARKAL model was assembled, following an extensive review of available data on the Cuban power system and resource potentials. Two scenarios were assessed, a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario assuming continued moderate electricity load growth and domestic fuel production growth, and a high growth (HI) scenario assuming rapid electricity demand growth, rapid increase in domestic fuel production, and a transition to market pricing of electricity. Within these two scenarios sets, sensitivity analyses were conducted on a number of variables. The implications of least-cost investment strategies for new capacity builds, investment spending requirements, electricity prices, fuel expenditures, and carbon dioxide emissions for each scenario were assessed. Natural gas was found to be the cost effective fuel for new generation across both scenarios and most sensitivity cases, suggesting that access to natural gas, through increased domestic production and LNG import, is a clear priority for further analysis in the Cuban context. (author)

  11. Performance demonstration program plan for analysis of simulated headspace gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-06-01

    The Performance Demonstration Program (PDP) for analysis of headspace gases will consist of regular distribution and analyses of test standards to evaluate the capability for analyzing VOCs, hydrogen, and methane in the headspace of transuranic (TRU) waste throughout the Department of Energy (DOE) complex. Each distribution is termed a PDP cycle. These evaluation cycles will provide an objective measure of the reliability of measurements performed for TRU waste characterization. Laboratory performance will be demonstrated by the successful analysis of blind audit samples of simulated TRU waste drum headspace gases according to the criteria set within the text of this Program Plan. Blind audit samples (hereinafter referred to as PDP samples) will be used as an independent means to assess laboratory performance regarding compliance with the QAPP QAOs. The concentration of analytes in the PDP samples will encompass the range of concentrations anticipated in actual waste characterization gas samples. Analyses which are required by the WIPP to demonstrate compliance with various regulatory requirements and which are included in the PDP must be performed by laboratories which have demonstrated acceptable performance in the PDP

  12. Collapse Scenarios of High-Rise Buildings Using Plastic Limit Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Liu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The Twin Towers of the World Trade Center (WTC in New York, USA collapsed on 11 September, 2001. The incident is regarded as the most severe disaster for high-rise buildings in history. Investigations into the collapse scenarios are still being conducted. Possible collapse scenarios assessed by local and international experts were reported. Another possible collapse scenario of the WTC based on two hypotheses was proposed in this paper, and the idea of plastic limit analysis was applied to evaluate the approximate limit load. According to the theory analysis and numerical calculations, a conclusion can be drawn that the large fires, aroused by the terrorist attack, play a significant role on the collapse of the WTC.

  13. A scenario analysis of the future residential requirements for people with mental health problems in Eindhoven.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierbooms, Joyce J P A; Bongers, Inge M B; van Oers, Hans A M

    2011-01-06

    Despite large-scale investments in mental health care in the community since the 1990 s, a trend towards reinstitutionalization has been visible since 2002. Since many mental health care providers regard this as an undesirable trend, the question arises: In the coming 5 years, what types of residence should be organized for people with mental health problems? The purpose of this article is to provide mental health care providers, public housing corporations, and local government with guidelines for planning organizational strategy concerning types of residence for people with mental health problems. A scenario analysis was performed in four steps: 1) an exploration of the external environment; 2) the identification of key uncertainties; 3) the development of scenarios; 4) the translation of scenarios into guidelines for planning organizational strategy. To explore the external environment a document study was performed, and 15 semi-structured interviews were conducted. During a workshop, a panel of experts identified two key uncertainties in the external environment, and formulated four scenarios. The study resulted in four scenarios: 1) Integrated and independent living in the community with professional care; 2) Responsible healthcare supported by society; 3) Differentiated provision within the walls of the institution; 4) Residence in large-scale institutions but unmet need for care. From the range of aspects within the different scenarios, the panel was able to work out concrete guidelines for planning organizational strategy. In the context of residence for people with mental health problems, the focus should be on investment in community care and their re-integration into society. A joint effort is needed to achieve this goal. This study shows that scenario analysis leads to useful guidelines for planning organizational strategy in mental health care.

  14. Assessing policy options for increasing the use of renewable energy for sustainable development: Modelling energy scenarios for Sichuan, China. A UN-ENERGY demonstration study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    policies to increase the share of renewables in the energy supply mix of Sichuan, China. It was initiated in response to the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation's call to 'with a sense of urgency, substantially increase the global share of renewable energy sources'. The study again combines the IAEA models for analyzing national energy systems with data provided by UNEP, DESA and other public sources. It is important to note that this is a demonstration study, not a comprehensive analysis of policy options for Sichuan, but it provides generic insights on policy options to promote the use of renewable energy sources. The study also demonstrates the kind of policy work that UN-Energy can undertake as it seeks to evolve the joint capacity of the UN system to assist nations in facing the energy challenges of the 21st century. UN-Energy seeks to institutionalize a collaborative approach in an area that has not previously been subject to such approaches in the UN system. UNEnergy would appreciate views by readers of our reports in order to guide our future work

  15. An inquiry into the potential of scenario analysis for dealing with uncertainty in strategic environmental assessment in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Zhixi; Bai, Hongtao; Xu He; Zhu Tan

    2011-01-01

    Strategic environmental assessment (SEA) inherently needs to address greater levels of uncertainty in the formulation and implementation processes of strategic decisions, compared with project environmental impact assessment. The range of uncertainties includes internal and external factors of the complex system that is concerned in the strategy. Scenario analysis is increasingly being used to cope with uncertainty in SEA. Following a brief introduction of scenarios and scenario analysis, this paper examines the rationale for scenario analysis in SEA in the context of China. The state of the art associated with scenario analysis applied to SEA in China was reviewed through four SEA case analyses. Lessons learned from these cases indicated the word 'scenario' appears to be abused and the scenario-based methods appear to be misused due to the lack of understanding of an uncertain future and scenario analysis. However, good experiences were also drawn on, regarding how to integrate scenario analysis into the SEA process in China, how to cope with driving forces including uncertainties, how to combine qualitative scenario storylines with quantitative impact predictions, and how to conduct assessments and propose recommendations based on scenarios. Additionally, the ways to improve the application of this tool in SEA were suggested. We concluded by calling for further methodological research on this issue and more practices.

  16. Validation of a model with climatic and flow scenario analysis: case of Lake Burrumbeet in southeastern Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yihdego, Yohannes; Webb, John

    2016-05-01

    Forecast evaluation is an important topic that addresses the development of reliable hydrological probabilistic forecasts, mainly through the use of climate uncertainties. Often, validation has no place in hydrology for most of the times, despite the parameters of a model are uncertain. Similarly, the structure of the model can be incorrectly chosen. A calibrated and verified dynamic hydrologic water balance spreadsheet model has been used to assess the effect of climate variability on Lake Burrumbeet, southeastern Australia. The lake level has been verified to lake level, lake volume, lake surface area, surface outflow and lake salinity. The current study aims to increase lake level confidence model prediction through historical validation for the year 2008-2013, under different climatic scenario. Based on the observed climatic condition (2008-2013), it fairly matches with a hybridization of scenarios, being the period interval (2008-2013), corresponds to both dry and wet climatic condition. Besides to the hydrologic stresses uncertainty, uncertainty in the calibrated model is among the major drawbacks involved in making scenario simulations. In line with this, the uncertainty in the calibrated model was tested using sensitivity analysis and showed that errors in the model can largely be attributed to erroneous estimates of evaporation and rainfall, and surface inflow to a lesser. The study demonstrates that several climatic scenarios should be analysed, with a combination of extreme climate, stream flow and climate change instead of one assumed climatic sequence, to improve climate variability prediction in the future. Performing such scenario analysis is a valid exercise to comprehend the uncertainty with the model structure and hydrology, in a meaningful way, without missing those, even considered as less probable, ultimately turned to be crucial for decision making and will definitely increase the confidence of model prediction for management of the water

  17. Global sensitivity analysis of the BSM2 dynamic influent disturbance scenario generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V.; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of a phenomenological model that generates dynamic wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) influent disturbance scenarios. This influent model is part of the Benchmark Simulation Model (BSM) family and creates realistic dry/wet weat...

  18. Analysis of 38 GHz mmWave Propagation Characteristics of Urban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Nguyen, Huan Cong; Sørensen, Troels Bundgaard

    2015-01-01

    The 38 GHz mm-wave frequency band is a strong candidate for the future deployment of wireless systems. Compared to lower frequency bands, propagation in the 38 GHz band is relatively unexplored for access networks in urban scenarios. This paper presents a detailed measurement-based analysis of ur...

  19. Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

    2007-02-01

    In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

  20. Analysis of the NIST database towards the composition of vulnerabilities in attack scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nunes Leal Franqueira, V.; van Keulen, Maurice

    The composition of vulnerabilities in attack scenarios has been traditionally performed based on detailed pre- and post-conditions. Although very precise, this approach is dependent on human analysis, is time consuming, and not at all scalable. We investigate the NIST National Vulnerability Database

  1. Expanded Capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc; Penev, Michael

    2016-06-08

    This presentation describes how NREL expanded the capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) in FY16. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 8, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  2. Post mitigation impact risk analysis for asteroid deflection demonstration missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggl, Siegfried; Hestroffer, Daniel; Thuillot, William; Bancelin, David; Cano, Juan L.; Cichocki, Filippo

    2015-08-01

    Even though mankind believes to have the capabilities to avert potentially disastrous asteroid impacts, only the realization of mitigation demonstration missions can validate this claim. Such a deflection demonstration attempt has to be cost effective, easy to validate, and safe in the sense that harmless asteroids must not be turned into potentially hazardous objects. Uncertainties in an asteroid's orbital and physical parameters as well as those additionally introduced during a mitigation attempt necessitate an in depth analysis of deflection mission designs in order to dispel planetary safety concerns. We present a post mitigation impact risk analysis of a list of potential kinetic impactor based deflection demonstration missions proposed in the framework of the NEOShield project. Our results confirm that mitigation induced uncertainties have a significant influence on the deflection outcome. Those cannot be neglected in post deflection impact risk studies. We show, furthermore, that deflection missions have to be assessed on an individual basis in order to ensure that asteroids are not inadvertently transported closer to the Earth at a later date. Finally, we present viable targets and mission designs for a kinetic impactor test to be launched between the years 2025 and 2032.

  3. Geothermal power production in future electricity markets-A scenario analysis for Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purkus, Alexandra; Barth, Volker

    2011-01-01

    Development and diffusion of new renewable energy technologies play a central role in mitigating climate change. In this context, small-scale deep geothermal power has seen growing interest in recent years as an environmentally friendly, non-intermittent energy source with large technical potential. Following the first successful demonstration projects, the German geothermal industry is currently experiencing an internationally unparalleled growth. In this study we explore the factors driving this development, and the role geothermal power production could play in the future of the German electricity market. For this, we apply the scenario technique, based on literature analysis and interviews with companies operating actively in the field. Our findings highlight the importance of political support and framework conditions in the electricity market, with the best prospects in a decentralised energy system based on renewable energy sources, where high investment costs and the risk of discovery failure are balanced by the benefits of low-carbon base load power. - Research highlights: → Small scale geothermal plants could provide base load for RES based power systems. → New technologies allow its use even in geologically inactive regions like Germany. → Key factors for growth are political support and power market framework conditions. → Main investment barriers are comparatively high investment costs and discovery risks. → Scale of use depends on technological evolution and energy system structure.

  4. An activity theory perspective of how scenario-based simulations support learning: a descriptive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battista, Alexis

    2017-01-01

    The dominant frameworks for describing how simulations support learning emphasize increasing access to structured practice and the provision of feedback which are commonly associated with skills-based simulations. By contrast, studies examining student participants' experiences during scenario-based simulations suggest that learning may also occur through participation. However, studies directly examining student participation during scenario-based simulations are limited. This study examined the types of activities student participants engaged in during scenario-based simulations and then analyzed their patterns of activity to consider how participation may support learning. Drawing from Engeström's first-, second-, and third-generation activity systems analysis, an in-depth descriptive analysis was conducted. The study drew from multiple qualitative methods, namely narrative, video, and activity systems analysis, to examine student participants' activities and interaction patterns across four video-recorded simulations depicting common motivations for using scenario-based simulations (e.g., communication, critical patient management). The activity systems analysis revealed that student participants' activities encompassed three clinically relevant categories, including (a) use of physical clinical tools and artifacts, (b) social interactions, and (c) performance of structured interventions. Role assignment influenced participants' activities and the complexity of their engagement. Importantly, participants made sense of the clinical situation presented in the scenario by reflexively linking these three activities together. Specifically, student participants performed structured interventions, relying upon the use of physical tools, clinical artifacts, and social interactions together with interactions between students, standardized patients, and other simulated participants to achieve their goals. When multiple student participants were present, such as in a

  5. Multi-scenario electromagnetic load analysis for CFETR and EAST magnet systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Weiwei; Liu, Xufeng, E-mail: lxf@ipp.ac.cn; Du, Shuangsong; Song, Yuntao

    2017-01-15

    Highlights: • A multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using interaction matrix method. • The simulator is applied to EM analysis of CFETR and EAST magnet system. • The EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios and the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are analyzed with the simulator. • Results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for multi-scenario and real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system. - Abstract: A technology for electromagnetic (EM) analysis of the current-carrying components in tokamaks has been proposed recently (Rozov, 2013; Rozov and Alekseev, 2015). According to this method, the EM loads can be obtained by a linear transform of given currents using the pre-computed interaction matrix. Based on this technology, a multi-scenario force-calculating simulator for Tokamak magnet system is developed using Fortran programming in this paper. And the simulator is applied to EM analysis of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR) and Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) magnet system. The pre-computed EM interaction matrices of CFETR and EAST magnet system are implanted into the simulator, then the EM loads on CFETR magnet coils at different typical scenarios are evaluated with the simulator, and the comparison of the results with ANSYS method results validates the efficiency and accuracy of the method. Using the simulator, the EM loads acting on magnet system of EAST as function of time for different shots are further analyzed, and results indicate that the approach can be conveniently used for the real-time EM analysis of Tokamak magnet system.

  6. The development of English primary care group governance. A scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheaff, R

    1999-01-01

    At present there is a policy vacuum about what English Primary Care Groups' (PCGs) governance will be when they develop into Primary Care Trusts (PCTs). Draft legislation leaves many options open, so PCT governance is likely to 'emerge' as PCTs are created. It also remains uncertain how general practitioners (GPs) will react to the formation of PCTs and how the UK government will then respond in turn. A scenario analysis suggests three possible lines of development. The base (likeliest) scenario predicts a mainly networked form of PCT governance. An alternative scenario is of PCT governance resembling the former National Health Service internal market. A third scenario predicts 'franchise model' PCTs employing some GPs and subcontracting others. To different degrees all three scenarios predict that PCTs will retain elements of networked governance. If it fails to make GPs as accountable to NHS management as the UK government wishes, networked governance may prove only a transitional stage before English PCTs adopt either quasi-market or hierarchical governance.

  7. Performance Demonstration Program Plan for Analysis of Simulated Headspace Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The Performance Demonstration Program (PDP) for headspace gases distributes sample gases of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) for analysis. Participating measurement facilities (i.e., fixed laboratories, mobile analysis systems, and on-line analytical systems) are located across the United States. Each sample distribution is termed a PDP cycle. These evaluation cycles provide an objective measure of the reliability of measurements performed for transuranic (TRU) waste characterization. The primary documents governing the conduct of the PDP are the Quality Assurance Program Document (QAPD) (DOE/CBFO-94-1012) and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Waste Analysis Plan (WAP) contained in the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (NM4890139088-TSDF) issued by the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). The WAP requires participation in the PDP; the PDP must comply with the QAPD and the WAP. This plan implements the general requirements of the QAPD and the applicable requirements of the WAP for the Headspace Gas (HSG) PDP. Participating measurement facilities analyze blind audit samples of simulated TRU waste package headspace gases according to the criteria set by this PDP Plan. Blind audit samples (hereafter referred to as PDP samples) are used as an independent means to assess each measurement facility's compliance with the WAP quality assurance objectives (QAOs). To the extent possible, the concentrations of VOC analytes in the PDP samples encompass the range of concentrations anticipated in actual TRU waste package headspace gas samples. Analyses of headspace gases are required by the WIPP to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. These analyses must be performed by measurement facilities that have demonstrated acceptable performance in this PDP. These analyses are referred to as WIPP analyses and the TRU waste package headspace gas samples on which they are performed are referred to as WIPP samples in this document. Participating measurement

  8. Performance Demonstration Program Plan for Analysis of Simulated Headspace Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The Performance Demonstration Program (PDP) for headspace gases distributes blind audit samples in a gas matrix for analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Participating measurement facilities (i.e., fixed laboratories, mobile analysis systems, and on-line analytical systems) are located across the United States. Each sample distribution is termed a PDP cycle. These evaluation cycles provide an objective measure of the reliability of measurements performed for transuranic (TRU) waste characterization. The primary documents governing the conduct of the PDP are the Quality Assurance Program Document (QAPD) (DOE/CBFO-94-1012) and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Waste Analysis Plan (WAP) contained in the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (NM4890139088-TSDF) issued by the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). The WAP requires participation in the PDP; the PDP must comply with the QAPD and the WAP. This plan implements the general requirements of the QAPD and the applicable requirements of the WAP for the Headspace Gas (HSG) PDP. Participating measurement facilities analyze blind audit samples of simulated TRU waste package headspace gases according to the criteria set by this PDP Plan. Blind audit samples (hereafter referred to as PDP samples) are used as an independent means to assess each measurement facility's compliance with the WAP quality assurance objectives (QAOs). To the extent possible, the concentrations of VOC analytes in the PDP samples encompass the range of concentrations anticipated in actual TRU waste package headspace gas samples. Analyses of headspace gases are required by the WIPP to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. These analyses must be performed by measurement facilities that have demonstrated acceptable performance in this PDP. These analyses are referred to as WIPP analyses and the TRU waste package headspace gas samples on which they are performed are referred to as WIPP samples in this document

  9. Development of exploratory approach for scenario analysis in the performance assessment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu; Grindrod, Peter

    1998-01-01

    It becomes difficult to apply the ordinary method for scenario analysis as number of the processes and complexity in their interrelations are increased. For this problem, an exploratory approach, that can perform scenario analysis on wider range of problems, was developed. The approach includes ensemble runs of a mass transport model, that was developed as a generic and flexible model and can cover effects of various processes on the mass transport, and analysis of sensitivity structure among the input and output space of the ensemble runs. The technique of clustering and principal component analysis were applied in the approach. As the result of its test application, applicability of the approach was confirmed to identify important processes from number of the processes in the systematic and objective manner. (author)

  10. Development and Application of Econometric Models for Forecasting and Analysis of Monetary Policy Scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Malugin, Vladimir; Demidenko , Mikhail; Kalechits, Dmitry; Miksjuk , Alexei; Tsukarev , Taras

    2009-01-01

    A system of econometric models designed for forecasting target monetary indicators as well as conducting monetary policy scenarios analysis is presented. The econometric models integrated in the system are represented in the error correction form and are interlinked by means of monetary policy instruments variables, common exogenous variables characterizing external shocks, and monetary policy target endogenous variables. Forecast accuracy estimates and monetary policy analysis results are pr...

  11. Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

    2018-06-01

    Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen

  12. An interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Giertz

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an interdisciplinary scenario analysis to assess the influence of global and regional change on future water availability and water consumption in the Upper Ouémé catchment in central Benin. For the region three development scenarios were evolved. These scenarios are combined with climate change scenarios based on the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In the mo-delling approach the quantification of the land use/land cover change is performed by the cellular automata model CLUE-S. The future climate scenarios are computed with the regional climate model REMO driven by the global ECHAM model. Using this data different land use and climate change scenarios can be calculated with the conceptual hydrological model UHP-HRU to assess the effects of global changes on the future water availability in Benin. To analyse the future water availability also the water consumption has to be taken into account. Due to high population growth an increase in water need in the future is expected for the region. To calculate the future household water consumption data from a regional survey and demographic projections are used. Development of the water need for animal husbandry is also considered. The first test run of the modelling approach was performed for the development scenario 'business as usual' combined with the IPCC scenario B2 for the year 2025. This test demonstrates the applicability of the approach for an interdisciplinary scenario analysis. A continuous run from 2000–2025 will be simulated for different scenarios as soon as the input data concerning land use/land cover and climate are available.

  13. The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG: a distributed environmental data archive analysis tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E A Kihn

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The Environmental Scenario Generator (ESG is a network distributed software system designed to allow a user to interact with archives of environmental data for the purpose of scenario extraction, data analysis and integration with existing models that require environmental input. The ESG uses fuzzy-logic based search tools to allow a user to look for specific environmental scenarios in vast archives by specifying the search in human linguistic terms. For example, the user can specify a scenario such as a "cloud free week" or "high winds and low pressure" and then search relevant archives available across the network to get a list of matching events. The ESG hooks to existing archives of data by providing a simple communication framework and an efficient data model for exchanging data. Once data has been delivered by the distributed archives in the ESG data model, it can easily be accessed by the visualization, integration and analysis components to meet specific user requests. The ESG implementation provides a framework which can be taken as a pattern applicable to other distributed archive systems.

  14. Technology penetration and capital stock turnover. Lessons from IEA scenario analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [International Energy Agency IEA, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OECD, Paris (France)

    2007-05-15

    The aim of this paper is to reflect on the significant differences between the emissions reductions projections in mid-term and long-term scenarios, and to explore their policy implications. It draws mainly on two recent IEA publications: the 2006 World Energy Outlook (WEO), which contains energy and energy-related CO2 projections up to 2030, and the 2006-published Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), which considers scenarios and strategies up to 2050. The analysis focuses on a comparison of the Alternative Policy Scenario of the 2006 WEO, and the various Accelerated Technology (ACT) Scenarios in the ETP. The next section provides the necessary background on these two publications and their energy-related CO2 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. The third section investigates in some more depth the reasons for the large differences in the amount of emission reductions at these dates. Capital stock turnover and technology maturation lead times, in particular, are identified as primary reasons for the differences. The fourth section suggests several possible policy conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis. They include thought pieces with respect to the action required in the short-term; to the necessity of long-term signals; to the advantages and limitations of short-term targets; and to the opportunities and challenges the international community faces with respect to emission reductions in developing countries.

  15. Nonlinear finite element analysis of liquid sloshing in complex vehicle motion scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolsen, Brynne; Wang, Liang; Shabana, Ahmed

    2017-09-01

    The objective of this investigation is to develop a new total Lagrangian continuum-based liquid sloshing model that can be systematically integrated with multibody system (MBS) algorithms in order to allow for studying complex motion scenarios. The new approach allows for accurately capturing the effect of the sloshing forces during curve negotiation, rapid lane change, and accelerating and braking scenarios. In these motion scenarios, the liquid experiences large displacements and significant changes in shape that can be captured effectively using the finite element (FE) absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF). ANCF elements are used in this investigation to describe complex mesh geometries, to capture the change in inertia due to the change in the fluid shape, and to accurately calculate the centrifugal forces, which for flexible bodies do not take the simple form used in rigid body dynamics. A penalty formulation is used to define the contact between the rigid tank walls and the fluid. A fully nonlinear MBS truck model that includes a suspension system and Pacejka's brush tire model is developed. Specified motion trajectories are used to examine the vehicle dynamics in three different scenarios - deceleration during straight-line motion, rapid lane change, and curve negotiation. It is demonstrated that the liquid sloshing changes the contact forces between the tires and the ground - increasing the forces on certain wheels and decreasing the forces on other wheels. In cases of extreme sloshing, this dynamic behavior can negatively impact the vehicle stability by increasing the possibility of wheel lift and vehicle rollover.

  16. Comparative Analysis of Single and Dual Irradiation Pass of Deep Burn High Temperature Reactor Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Jo, Chang Keun; Noh, Jae Man

    2012-01-01

    A concept of a deep-burn (DB) of trans uranic (TRU) elements in a high temperature reactor (HTR) has been proposed and studied with a single irradiation pass. However, there is still a significant amount of TRU after burn in an HTR. Therefore, it is necessary to burn more TRU in a fast reactor (FR) with repeated reprocessing such as a pyro-process. In this study, the fuel cycle calculations are performed and the results are compared for a singlepass DB-HHR scenario and a dual-pass sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) scenario. For the analysis, front-end and back-end parameters are compared. The calculations were performed by the DANESS (Dynamic Analysis of Nuclear Energy System Strategies), which is an integrated system dynamic fuel cycle analysis code

  17. Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

    2018-03-15

    Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

  18. Scenario analysis for sustainable development of Chongming Island: water resources sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, Xiong; Wu, Yanqing; Wu, Jun; Lu, Jian; Wilson, P Chris

    2012-11-15

    With the socioeconomic and urban development of Chongming Island (the largest alluvial island in the world), water demand is rapidly growing. To make adjustments to the water utilization structure of each industry, allocate limited water resources, and increase local water use efficiency, this study performed a scenario analysis for the water sustainability of Chongming Island. Four different scenarios were performed to assess the water resource availability by 2020. The growth rate for water demand will be much higher than that of water supply under a serious situation prediction. The water supply growth volume will be 2.22 × 10(8)m(3) from 2010 to 2020 under Scenario I and Scenario II while the corresponding water demand growth volume will be 2.74 × 10(8)m(3) and 2.64 × 10(8)m(3), respectively. There will be a rapid growth in water use benefit under both high and low development modes. The water use benefit will be about 50 CNY/m(3) under Scenarios I and II in 2020. The production structure will need to be adjusted for sustainable utilization of water resources. Sewage drainage but not the forest and grass coverage rate will be a major obstacle to future development and environmental quality. According to a multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Scenario II is finally deemed to be the most desirable plan, suggesting that the policy of rapid socioeconomic development and better environmental protection may achieve the most sustainable development of Chongming Island in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) - MELCOR Crosswalk: Phase II Analyzing a Partially Recovered Accident Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Nathan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Faucett, Christopher [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Haskin, Troy Christopher [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Luxat, Dave [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Geiger, Garrett [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Codella, Brittany [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Following the conclusion of the first phase of the crosswalk analysis, one of the key unanswered questions was whether or not the deviations found would persist during a partially recovered accident scenario, similar to the one that occurred in TMI - 2. In particular this analysis aims to compare the impact of core degradation morphology on quenching models inherent within the two codes and the coolability of debris during partially recovered accidents. A primary motivation for this study is the development of insights into how uncertainties in core damage progression models impact the ability to assess the potential for recovery of a degraded core. These quench and core recovery models are of the most interest when there is a significant amount of core damage, but intact and degraded fuel still remain in the cor e region or the lower plenum. Accordingly this analysis presents a spectrum of partially recovered accident scenarios by varying both water injection timing and rate to highlight the impact of core degradation phenomena on recovered accident scenarios. This analysis uses the newly released MELCOR 2.2 rev. 966 5 and MAAP5, Version 5.04. These code versions, which incorporate a significant number of modifications that have been driven by analyses and forensic evidence obtained from the Fukushima - Daiichi reactor site.

  20. Adapting for uncertainty : a scenario analysis of U.S. technology energy futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laitner, J.A.; Hanson, D.A.; Mintzner, I.; Leonard, J.A.

    2006-01-01

    The pattern of future evolution for United States (US) energy markets is highly uncertain at this time. This article provided details of a study using a scenario analysis technique to investigate key energy issues affecting decision-making processes in the United States. Four scenarios were used to examine the driving forces and critical uncertainties that may shape United States energy markets and the economy for the next 50 years: (1) a reference scenario benchmarked to the 2002 annual energy outlook forecast, (2) abundant and inexpensive supplies of oil and gas, (3) a chaotic future beset with international conflict, faltering new technologies, environmental policy difficulties and slowed economic growth, and (4) a technology-driven market in which a variety of forces converge to reshape the energy sector. Each of the scenarios was quantified using a computable general equilibrium model known as the All Modular Industry Growth Assessment (AMIGA) model. Results suggested that the range of different outcomes for the US is broad. However, energy use is expected to increase in all 4 scenarios. It was observed that the introduction of policies to encourage capital stock turnover and accelerate the commercialization of high efficiency, low-emissions technologies may reduce future primary energy demand. The analysis also showed that lower energy prices may lead to higher economic growth. Policies introduced to improve energy efficiency and accelerate the introduction of new technologies did not appreciably reduce the prospects for economic growth. Results also suggested that lower fossil fuel prices discourage investments in energy efficiency or new technologies and may mask the task of responding to future surprises. It was concluded that an investment path that emphasizes both energy efficiency improvements and advanced energy supply technologies will provide economic growth conditions similar to the implementation of lower energy prices. 11 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  1. Engaging Stakeholders through Participatory Mapping and Spatial Analysis in a Scenarios Process for Alaska's North Slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fradkin, B.; Vargas, J. C.; Lee, O. A.; Emperador, S.

    2016-12-01

    A scenarios process was conducted for Alaska's North Slope to consider the wide range of drivers of change and uncertainties that could contribute to shifts in research and monitoring needs over the next 25 years. The project team, consisting of specialists in participatory scenarios and academic researchers, developed an interactive approach that helped facilitate the exploration of a range of plausible changes in the region. Over two years, the team designed and executed a series of workshops to capitalize on the collective expertise of researchers, resource managers, industry representatives, and traditional and local knowledge holders on the North Slope. The goal of this process was to evaluate three energy and resource development scenarios, which incorporated biophysical and socioeconomic drivers, to assess the implications of development on high-priority biophysical resources and the subsistence lifestyle and well-being of its Inupiat residents. Due to the diversity of the stakeholders engaged in the process, the workshop materials and activities had to be carefully designed and executed, in order to provide an adequate platform for discussion of each scenario component, as well as generating products that would provide management-relevant information to the NSSI and its member entities. Each workshop implemented a participatory mapping component, which relied on the best available geospatial datasets to generate informational maps that enabled participants to effectively consider a wide range of variables and outcomes for each of the selected scenarios. In addition, the map sketches produced in each workshop were digitized and incorporated into a spatial analysis that evaluated the level of agreement between stakeholder groups, as well as evaluating the geographic overlap of development features and anticipated implications with terrestrial and marine habitats, subsistence hunting zones, and sensitive landscape elements such as permafrost. This presentation

  2. Analysis of cloud-based solutions on EHRs systems in different scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Cardeñosa, Gonzalo; de la Torre-Díez, Isabel; López-Coronado, Miguel; Rodrigues, Joel J P C

    2012-12-01

    Nowadays with the growing of the wireless connections people can access all the resources hosted in the Cloud almost everywhere. In this context, organisms can take advantage of this fact, in terms of e-Health, deploying Cloud-based solutions on e-Health services. In this paper two Cloud-based solutions for different scenarios of Electronic Health Records (EHRs) management system are proposed. We have researched articles published between the years 2005 and 2011 about the implementation of e-Health services based on the Cloud in Medline. In order to analyze the best scenario for the deployment of Cloud Computing two solutions for a large Hospital and a network of Primary Care Health centers have been studied. Economic estimation of the cost of the implementation for both scenarios has been done via the Amazon calculator tool. As a result of this analysis two solutions are suggested depending on the scenario: To deploy a Cloud solution for a large Hospital a typical Cloud solution in which are hired just the needed services has been assumed. On the other hand to work with several Primary Care Centers it's suggested the implementation of a network, which interconnects these centers with just one Cloud environment. Finally it's considered the fact of deploying a hybrid solution: in which EHRs with images will be hosted in the Hospital or Primary Care Centers and the rest of them will be migrated to the Cloud.

  3. Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayyar Hussain Mirjat

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The now over a decade-long electricity crisis in Pakistan has adversely affected the socio-economic development of the country. This situation is mainly due to a lack of sustainable energy planning and policy formulation. In this context, energy models can be of great help but only a handful of such efforts have been undertaken in Pakistan. Two key shortcomings pertaining to energy models lead to their low utilization in developing countries. First, the models do not effectively make decisions, but rather provide a set of alternatives based on modeling parameters; and secondly, the complexity of these models is often poorly understood by the decision makers. As such, in this study, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP methodology of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM has been used for the sustainability assessment of energy modeling results for long-term electricity planning. The four scenario alternatives developed in the energy modeling effort, Reference (REF, Renewable Energy Technologies (RET, Clean Coal Maximum (CCM and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EEC, have been ranked using the Expert Choice® tool based on the AHP methodology. The AHP decision support framework of this study revealed the EEC scenario as the most favorable electricity generation scenario followed by the REF, RET and CCM scenarios. Besides that, this study proposes policy recommendations to undertake integrated energy modeling and decision analysis for sustainable energy planning in Pakistan.

  4. Power production feasibility analysis from landfill gas in Cruzeiro [SP, Brazil]: three different scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leticia de Oliveira Silva

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Solid wastes are related to diseases and environmental pollution, the need for greater knowledge of the waste composition and the best final disposal from this waste. The importance of the environmental sanitation can be observed in PNRS (national solid waste politics, which describes the need for urban cleaning and garbage collection, from the implementation of goals for better allocation of this waste. For the purpose of an overview of the solid waste produced in the city of Cruzeiro [State of Sao Paulo, Brazil], a projection and analysis of the construction of a landfill for the packaging of this waste, beginning by the year 2013, for a period of 20 years. The lack of places for waste packaging results in contamination of groundwater and soils. With the help of the software "WARM", the analysis of three scenarios, with material recycling and composting, and use the 2 and 3 scenarios with the use of gas.

  5. Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

  6. Interactive, open source, travel time scenario modelling: tools to facilitate participation in health service access analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Rohan; Lassa, Jonatan

    2017-04-18

    Modelling travel time to services has become a common public health tool for planning service provision but the usefulness of these analyses is constrained by the availability of accurate input data and limitations inherent in the assumptions and parameterisation. This is particularly an issue in the developing world where access to basic data is limited and travel is often complex and multi-modal. Improving the accuracy and relevance in this context requires greater accessibility to, and flexibility in, travel time modelling tools to facilitate the incorporation of local knowledge and the rapid exploration of multiple travel scenarios. The aim of this work was to develop simple open source, adaptable, interactive travel time modelling tools to allow greater access to and participation in service access analysis. Described are three interconnected applications designed to reduce some of the barriers to the more wide-spread use of GIS analysis of service access and allow for complex spatial and temporal variations in service availability. These applications are an open source GIS tool-kit and two geo-simulation models. The development of these tools was guided by health service issues from a developing world context but they present a general approach to enabling greater access to and flexibility in health access modelling. The tools demonstrate a method that substantially simplifies the process for conducting travel time assessments and demonstrate a dynamic, interactive approach in an open source GIS format. In addition this paper provides examples from empirical experience where these tools have informed better policy and planning. Travel and health service access is complex and cannot be reduced to a few static modeled outputs. The approaches described in this paper use a unique set of tools to explore this complexity, promote discussion and build understanding with the goal of producing better planning outcomes. The accessible, flexible, interactive and

  7. Scenario Planning Analysis for Startup Business Case Study: Kemilau Indonesia Magazine

    OpenAIRE

    Mulyanto, Frieta Miasari; Sunitiyoso, Yos

    2013-01-01

    This research explained about the application of scenario planning analysis as solution for Kemilau Indonesia Magazine (KIM) which was born from the opportunities as information and promotion media of tourism. As a new player, KIM has several internal and external issues that impact on its survival. The technique used in this method is to collect data and information to be analyzed in order to generate predictions as a preparation for decision making process. This method give an overview of e...

  8. Assessing scenario and parametric uncertainties in risk analysis: a model uncertainty audit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarantola, S.; Saltelli, A.; Draper, D.

    1999-01-01

    In the present study a process of model audit is addressed on a computational model used for predicting maximum radiological doses to humans in the field of nuclear waste disposal. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are employed to assess output uncertainty and to quantify the contribution of parametric and scenario uncertainties to the model output. These tools are of fundamental importance for risk analysis and decision making purposes

  9. Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

    2007-01-01

    The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

  10. Photosynthesis energy factory: analysis, synthesis, and demonstration. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-11-01

    This quantitative assessment of the potential of a combined dry-land Energy Plantation, wood-fired power plant, and algae wastewater treatment system demonstrates the cost-effectiveness of recycling certain by-products and effluents from one subsystem to another. Designed to produce algae up to the limit of the amount of carbon in municipal wastewater, the algae pond provides a positive cash credit, resulting mainly from the wastewater treatment credit, which may be used to reduce the cost of the Photosynthesis Energy Factory (PEF)-generated electricity. The algae pond also produces fertilizer, which reduces the cost of the biomass produced on the Energy Plantation, and some gas. The cost of electricity was as low as 35 mills per kilowatt-hour for a typical municipally-owned PEF consisting of a 65-MWe power plant, a 144-acre algae pond, and a 33,000-acre Energy Plantation. Using only conventional or near-term technology, the most cost-effective algae pond for a PEF is the carbon-limited secondary treatment system. This system does not recycle CO/sub 2/ from the flue gas. Analysis of the Energy Plantation subsystem at 15 sites revealed that plantations of 24,000 to 36,000 acres produce biomass at the lowest cost per ton. The following sites are recommended for more detailed evaluation as potential demonstration sites: Pensacola, Florida; Jamestown, New York; Knoxville, Tennessee; Martinsville, Virginia, and Greenwood, South Carolina. A major possible extension of the PEF concept is to include the possibility for irrigation.

  11. [Study on strategies of pollution prevention in coastal city of Zhejiang Province based on scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jin-Ping; Chen, Lü-Jun; Du, Peng-Fei; Qian, Yi

    2013-01-01

    Scenario analysis was used to study the environmental burden in a coastal city of Zhejiang province under different patterns of economic development. The aim of this research is to propose advices on decision making by illustrating how to make emissions reduced by transforming the pattern of economic development in a developed coastal area, which had acquired the level of 70 000 yuan GDP per cap. At first, 18 heavy pollution industries were screened out, by referencing total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Then, a model of scenario analysis and the back-up calculation program were designed to study the sustainable development of the heavy pollution industries. With 2008 and 2015 as the reference year and the target year respectively, emissions of four pollutants mentioned above in the 18 heavy pollution industries in the city were analyzed under six scenarios. The total emissions of 4 pollutants should be reduced to an expectant degree, which is set as the constraint prerequisite of the scenario analysis. At last, some suggestions for decision-making are put forward, which include maintaining a moderate increase rate of GDP around 7%, strengthening the adjustment of economic structure, controlling the increasing rate of industrial added value of the industries with heavy pollution, optimizing the structure of industries with heavy pollution, decreasing the intensity of waste emission by implementing cleaner production to reduce emission produce at the source, and strengthening regulations on the operation of waste treatment plants to further promote the efficiency of waste treatment. Only by implementing such measures mentioned above, can the total emissions of chemical oxygen demand, ammonia-nitrogen, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide of the 18 industries with heavy pollution in the city be reduced by a 10%, 10%, 5%, and 15% respectively based on the reference year.

  12. [Scenario analysis on sustainable development of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city based on emergy and system dynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun-fa; Cao, Ying-ying; Yang, Jian-cho; Yang, Qi-qi

    2015-08-01

    Dynamic evaluation of sustainable development is one of the key fundamental parts of the success of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city, which is the first eco-city in China constructed by international cooperation. Based on the analysis of nature and economy, function and structure, planning control indices and so on, we constructed a sustainable development evaluation index system and a system dynamics model of Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-city to explore dynamic trends of its population, material and currency by comprehensive utilization of emergy analysis and system dynamics method. Five scenarios were set up and simulated, including inertial scenario, scientific and technological scenario, economic scenario, environmental scenario and harmonious development scenario. Then, the sustainability of the 5 scenarios was evaluated and compared. The results showed that in the economy and environment sustainable development scenario, there was a steady growth trend of GDP, accumulation of both emergy and currency, and relatively lower values in emergy waste ratio, emergy ratio of waste, and emergy loading ratio. Although both sustainable evaluation indices, such as ESI and UEI, were relatively low, the economy and environment sustainable development scenario was still the best development scenario which was more active than others.

  13. The role of scenario analysis in water resources management in Yanqi Basin, Xinjiang, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, N.; Kinzelbach, W. K.; Li, W.; Dong, X.

    2011-12-01

    With the rapid increase of world population and food demand, the demand for water resources is also increasing. At the same time shifts in rain patterns due to global climate change make the water resources situation more uncertain. A global water crisis can therefore not be excluded. The socio-economic and environmental problems induced by such a water crisis are especially prominent in arid and semiarid regions. The Yanqi Basin in Xinjiang province is a typical case study in China's arid and semi-arid areas, where rainfall is scarce and evaporation is extremely high. Thus its water resources have been under great pressure to satisfy the increasing water demand of agriculture and urban and industrial expansion in the last decades. The development has been accompanied by a number of environmental problems. Yanqi Basin is an important cultivated area which is irrigated by water diverted from rivers. Because of the long-term flood irrigation and an inefficient drainage system, the groundwater level under the cultivated area rose, accelerating the phreatic evaporation and leading to increased soil salinization. Simultaneously, the water quantity and quality of Boston Lake have been impaired in past years because of the decreased river discharge and the increased salt flux contained in the drainage discharge. Thus the ecosystems depending on the inflow to and outflow from the lake suffered. The riverine forests in the downstream area were degraded due to declining groundwater levels, and aquatic life as well as downstream water users had to cope with deteriorating water quality. The big challenge for decision makers in the basin is how to balance the justified requirements of agriculture, industrial development and the ecosystem. In order to provide a scientific basis to the decision making process, a scenario analysis was adopted. Here several scenarios are proposed: the basic scenario, scenario 1, describes the status of the year 2008. A second scenario maximizes the

  14. [GIS and scenario analysis aid to water pollution control planning of river basin].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shao-ping; Cheng, Sheng-tong; Jia, Hai-feng; Ou, Zhi-dan; Tan, Bin

    2004-07-01

    The forward and backward algorithms for watershed water pollution control planning were summarized in this paper as well as their advantages and shortages. The spatial databases of water environmental function region, pollution sources, monitoring sections and sewer outlets were built with ARCGIS8.1 as the platform in the case study of Ganjiang valley, Jiangxi province. Based on the principles of the forward algorithm, four scenarios were designed for the watershed pollution control. Under these scenarios, ten sets of planning schemes were generated to implement cascade pollution source control. The investment costs of sewage treatment for these schemes were estimated by means of a series of cost-effective functions; with pollution source prediction, the water quality was modeled with CSTR model for each planning scheme. The modeled results of different planning schemes were visualized through GIS to aid decision-making. With the results of investment cost and water quality attainment as decision-making accords and based on the analysis of the economic endurable capacity for water pollution control in Ganjiang river basin, two optimized schemes were proposed. The research shows that GIS technology and scenario analysis can provide a good guidance to the synthesis, integrity and sustainability aspects for river basin water quality planning.

  15. Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

  16. The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakkes, J.; Potting, J.; Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P.; Masui, T.; Rana, A.; Nellemann, C.; Rothman, D.

    2004-01-01

    The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?

  17. The GEO-3 Scenarios 2002-2032. Quantification and Analysis of Environmental Impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bakkes, J.; Potting, J. (eds.) [National Institute for Public Health and the Environment RIVM, Bilthoven (Netherlands); Henrichs, T. [Center for Environmental Systems Research CESR, University of Kassel, Kassel (Germany); Kemp-Benedict, E.; Raskin, P. [Stockholm Environment Institute SEI, Boston, MA (United States); Masui, T.; Rana, A. [National Institute for Environmental Studies NIES, Ibaraki (Japan); Nellemann, C. [United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, GRID Global and Regional Integrated Data centres Arendal, Lillehammer (Norway); Rothman, D. [International Centre for Integrative Studies ICIS, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2004-07-01

    The four contrasting visions of the world's next three decades as presented in the third Global Environment Outlook (GEO-3) have many implications for policy - from hunger to climate change and from freshwater issues to biodiversity. The four scenarios analysed are Markets First, Policy First, Security First, Sustainability First. Presenting a deeper analysis than the original GEO-3 report, this Technical Report quantifies the impacts of the scenarios for all 19 GEO 'sub-regions', such as Eastern Africa and Central Europe. Regional impacts are discussed in the context of sustainable development. The report summary compares the impacts of the four scenarios across regions - and for the world as a whole - in the light of internationally agreed targets including those in the Millennium Declaration where applicable. It provides an account of the analytical methods, key assumptions, models and other tools, along with the approaches used in the analyses. Based on the methods and results, the report looks back on the process of producing the forward-looking analysis for GEO-3. Were all analytical centres on the same track? Did the approach adopted for GEO-3 contribute to the overall GEO objective of strengthening global-regional involvement and linkages?.

  18. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

  19. Scenario Analysis In The Calculation Of Investment Efficiency–The Problem Of Formulating Assumptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dittmann Iwona

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article concerns the problem of formulating assumptions in scenario analysis for investments which consist of the renting out of an apartment. The article attempts to indicate the foundations for the formulation of assumptions on the basis of observed retrospective regularities. It includes theoretical considerations regarding scenario design, as well as the results of studies on the formulation, in the past, of quantities which determined or were likely to bring closer estimate the value of the individual explanatory variables for a chosen measure of investment profitability (MIRRFCFE. The dynamics of and correlation between the variables were studied. The research was based on quarterly data from local residential real estate markets in Poland (in the six largest cities in the years 2006 – 2014, as well as on data from the financial market.

  20. Measurement based scenario analysis of short-range distribution system planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Peiyuan; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe

    2009-01-01

    This paper focuses on short-range distribution system planning using a probabilistic approach. Empirical probabilistic distributions of load demand and distributed generations are derived from the historical measurement data and incorporated into the system planning. Simulations with various...... feasible scenarios are performed based on a local distribution system at Støvring in Denmark. Simulation results provide more accurate and insightful information for the decision-maker when using the probabilistic analysis than using the worst-case analysis, so that a better planning can be achieved....

  1. Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST). Web Tool User's Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Penev, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Melaina, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zuboy, J. [Independent Consultant, Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-05-11

    The Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) provides a quick and convenient indepth financial analysis for hydrogen fueling stations. This manual describes how to use the H2FAST web tool, which is one of three H2FAST formats developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Although all of the formats are based on the same financial computations and conform to generally accepted accounting principles (FASAB 2014, Investopedia 2014), each format provides a different level of complexity and user interactivity.

  2. Scenario analysis for biodiversity conservation: a social-ecological system approach in the Australian Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael; Lockwood, Michael; Moore, Susan A; Clement, Sarah

    2015-03-01

    Current policy interventions are having limited success in addressing the ongoing decline in global biodiversity. In part, this is attributable to insufficient attention being paid to the social and governance processes that drive decisions and can undermine their implementation. Scenario planning that draws on social-ecological systems (SES) analysis provides a useful means to systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes. However, the effective application of SES models has been limited by the insufficient attention given to governance influences. Understanding the influence governance attributes have on the future trajectory of SES is likely to assist choice of effective interventions, as well as needs and opportunities for governance reform. In a case study in the Australian Alps, we explore the potential of joint SES and scenario analyses to identify how governance influences landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes. Novel aspects of our application of these methods were the specification of the focal system's governance attributes according to requirements for adaptive capacity, and constraining scenarios according to the current governance settings while varying key social and biophysical drivers. This approach allowed us to identify how current governance arrangements influence landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes, and establishes a baseline from which the potential benefits of governance reform can be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Severe accident analysis to prevent high pressure scenarios in the EPR TM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarian, G.; Gandrille, P.; Gasperini, M.; Klein, R.

    2010-01-01

    The EPR TM has incorporated several design features in order to specifically address major severe accident safety issues. In particular, it was designed with the objective to transfer high pressure core melt scenarios into a low pressure scenario with high reliability so that a high pressure vessel failure can be practically eliminated. It is the key issue in the defense-in-depth approach, for a postulated severe accident with core melting, to prevent any risk of containment failure due to possible Direct Containment Heating or due to reactor vessel rocketing which results from vessel failure at high pressure. Temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture, which could lead to a radiological containment bypass, has also to be prevented. On the basis of the analysis of the main high pressure core melt scenarios which are calculated with the MAAP4.07 code which was developed to support the EPR TM, this paper explores the benefits of primary depressurization by dedicated valves on transient evolutions. It specifically addresses the thermal response of the structures by sensitivity studies involving the timing of valve actuation. It outlines that a grace period of at least one hour is available for a delayed valve actuation without inducing excessive loads and without increasing the risk of a temperature-induced steam generator tube rupture. (authors)

  4. A tool for the consensual analysis of decision-making scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Geoffrey; Merzeder, Christine; Bischofberger, Iren

    2018-05-01

    The authors believe there is a need for novel ways of enhancing professional judgment and discretion in the contemporary healthcare environment. The objective is to provide a framework to guide a discursive analysis of an ongoing clinical scenario by a small group of healthcare professionals (4-12) to achieve consensual understanding in the decision-making necessary to resolve specific healthcare inadequacies and promote organisational learning. REPVAD is an acronym for the framework's five decision-making dimensions of reasoning, evidence, procedures, values, attitudes and defences. The design is set out in terms of well-defined definitions of the dimensions, a rationale for using REPVAD, and explications of dimensions one at a time. Furthermore, the REPVAD process of application to a scenario is set out, and a didactic scenario is given to show how REPVAD works together with a sample case. A discussion is fleshed out in four real life student cases, and a conclusion indicates strengths and weaknesses and the possibility of further development and transferability. In terms of findings, the model has been tried, tested and refined over a number of years in the development of advanced practitioners at university healthcare faculties in two European countries. Consent was obtained from the four participating students.

  5. Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Land Access Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, Aaron L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Young, Katherine R [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-04

    Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including access to land. Activities required for accessing land, such as environmental review and private and public leasing can take a considerable amount of time and can delay or prevent project development. This paper discusses the impacts to available geothermal resources and deployment caused by land access challenges, including tribal and cultural resources, environmentally sensitive areas, biological resources, land ownership, federal and state lease queues, and proximity to military installations. In this analysis, we identified challenges that have the potential to prevent development of identified and undiscovered hydrothermal geothermal resources. We found that an estimated 400 MW of identified geothermal resource potential and 4,000 MW of undiscovered geothermal resource potential were either unallowed for development or contained one or more significant barriers that could prevent development at the site. Potential improvement scenarios that could be employed to overcome these barriers include (1) providing continuous funding to the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) for processing geothermal leases and permit applications and (2) the creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures. The model results forecast that continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 80 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 124 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The creation of advanced environmental mitigation measures coupled with continuous funding to the USFS could result in deployment of an additional 97 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 152 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 when compared to the business-as-usual scenario. The small impact on potential deployment in these improvement scenarios suggests that these 4,400 MW have other barriers to development in addition to land access. In other words, simply

  6. Analysis of Value Chain Governance: Scenarios to Develop Small-Scale Furniture Producers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rika Harini Irawati

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 Furniture industry had shown a long chain of production to consumption, from raw material producers (tree growers, semi-finished producers, finished product producers, and retailers to exporters. Jepara as a centre furniture industry in Indonesia incorporates around 15,000 business units and provide livelihoods to approximately 170,000 workers. This sector contributes about 27% of Jepara‘s people domestic income. Small and medium furniture enterprises (SMEs have significant roles in the furniture industry as production structures are characterized by them. Power and information imbalance throughout the furniture value chain have resulted in problems of uneven distribution of gains among actors of the industry. SME furniture producers have experienced an unfair value added distribution. Hence, development of SMEs is important for strengthening the industry and expected to result in a portion of value added distribution to them.  We are trying to develop scenarios for SME improvement in the furniture industry in Jepara by identifying their problems and implementing Value Chain Analysis (VCA. VCA is an approach to describe SME producer relations with other actors in the industry and the governance type of their relations. Data is collected by interviewing selected SMEs from the association of small scale producers in Jepara to get detailed maps of their value chain. The research will produce future scenarios and intervention points to improve small-scale producer sustainability and better value added distribution among furniture actors. The scenarios will not only benefit selected producers but also the furniture industry of Jepara, and can be adopted for similar industries throughout Indonesia and abroad. Keywords: furniture, value chain, governance, scenario, small-scale

  7. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  8. Analysis of global warming stabilization scenarios. The Asian-Pacific Integrated Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kainuma, Mikiko; Morita, Tsuneyuki; Masui, Toshihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2004-01-01

    This paper analyzes the economic and climatic impacts of the EMF 19 emission scenarios. A reference scenario, three emission scenarios targeting 550 ppmv atmospheric concentration, and three tax scenarios are analyzed. The profiles of energy consumption and economic losses of each policy scenario are compared to the reference scenario. The model also estimates that global mean temperature will increase 1.7-2.9 C in 2100, and the sea level will rise 40-51 cm, compared to the 1990 levels under the EMF scenarios. Impacts on food productivity and malaria infection are estimated to be very severe in some countries in the Asian region

  9. Reuse-centric Requirements Analysis with Task Models, Scenarios, and Critical Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cyril Montabert

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines a requirements-analysis process that unites task models, scenarios, and critical parameters to exploit and generate reusable knowledge at the requirements phase. Through the deployment of a critical-parameter-based approach to task modeling, the process yields the establishment of an integrative and formalized model issued from scenarios that can be used for requirements characterization. Furthermore, not only can this entity serve as interface to a knowledge repository relying on a critical-parameter-based taxonomy to support reuse but its characterization in terms of critical parameters also allows the model to constitute a broader reuse solution. We discuss our vision for a user-centric and reuse-centric approach to requirements analysis, present previous efforts implicated with this line of work, and state the revisions brought to extend the reuse potential and effectiveness of a previous iteration of a requirements tool implementing such process. Finally, the paper describes the sequence and nature of the activities involved with the conduct of our proposed requirements-analysis technique, concluding by previewing ongoing work in the field that will explore the feasibility for designers to use our approach.

  10. Forest Policy Scenario Analysis: Sensitivity of Songbird Community to Changes in Forest Cover Amount and Configuration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert S. Rempel

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Changes in mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration can be of significant consequence to wildlife populations. The response of wildlife to forest patterns is of concern to forest managers because it lies at the heart of such competing approaches to forest planning as aggregated vs. dispersed harvest block layouts. In this study, we developed a species assessment framework to evaluate the outcomes of forest management scenarios on biodiversity conservation objectives. Scenarios were assessed in the context of a broad range of forest structures and patterns that would be expected to occur under natural disturbance and succession processes. Spatial habitat models were used to predict the effects of varying degrees of mature forest cover amount, composition, and configuration on habitat occupancy for a set of 13 focal songbird species. We used a spatially explicit harvest scheduling program to model forest management options and simulate future forest conditions resulting from alternative forest management scenarios, and used a process-based fire-simulation model to simulate future forest conditions resulting from natural wildfire disturbance. Spatial pattern signatures were derived for both habitat occupancy and forest conditions, and these were placed in the context of the simulated range of natural variation. Strategic policy analyses were set in the context of current Ontario forest management policies. This included use of sequential time-restricted harvest blocks (created for Woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus conservation and delayed harvest areas (created for American marten (Martes americana atrata conservation. This approach increased the realism of the analysis, but reduced the generality of interpretations. We found that forest management options that create linear strips of old forest deviate the most from simulated natural patterns, and had the greatest negative effects on habitat occupancy, whereas policy options

  11. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the scenario simulation with RELAP/SCDAP and MELCOR codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia J, T.; Cardenas V, J.

    2015-09-01

    A methodology was implemented for analysis of uncertainty in simulations of scenarios with RELAP/SCDAP V- 3.4 bi-7 and MELCOR V-2.1 codes, same that are used to perform safety analysis in the Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias (CNSNS). The uncertainty analysis methodology chosen is a probabilistic method of type Propagation of uncertainty of the input parameters to the departure parameters. Therefore, it began with the selection of the input parameters considered uncertain and are considered of high importance in the scenario for its direct effect on the output interest variable. These parameters were randomly sampled according to intervals of variation or probability distribution functions assigned by expert judgment to generate a set of input files that were run through the simulation code to propagate the uncertainty to the output parameters. Then, through the use or ordered statistical and formula Wilks, was determined that the minimum number of executions required to obtain the uncertainty bands that include a population of 95% at a confidence level of 95% in the results is 93, is important to mention that in this method that number of executions does not depend on the number of selected input parameters. In the implementation routines in Fortran 90 that allowed automate the process to make the uncertainty analysis in transients for RELAP/SCDAP code were generated. In the case of MELCOR code for severe accident analysis, automation was carried out through complement Dakota Uncertainty incorporated into the Snap platform. To test the practical application of this methodology, two analyzes were performed: the first with the simulation of closing transient of the main steam isolation valves using the RELAP/SCDAP code obtaining the uncertainty band of the dome pressure of the vessel; while in the second analysis, the accident simulation of the power total loss (Sbo) was carried out with the Macarol code obtaining the uncertainty band for the

  12. Analysis of core degradation and relocation phenomena and scenarios in a Nordic-type BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Galushin, Sergey, E-mail: galushin@kth.se; Kudinov, Pavel, E-mail: pkudinov@kth.se

    2016-12-15

    Highlights: • A data base of the debris properties in lower plenum generated using MELCOR code. • The timing of safety systems has significant effect on the relocated debris properties. • Loose coupling between core relocation and vessel failure analyses was established. - Abstract: Severe Accident Management (SAM) in Nordic Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) employs ex-vessel cooling of core melt debris. The melt is released from the failed vessel and poured into a deep pool of water located under the reactor. The melt is expected to fragment, quench, and form a debris bed, coolable by a natural circulation and evaporation of water. Success of the strategy is contingent upon melt release conditions from the vessel and melt-coolant interaction that determine (i) properties of the debris bed and its coolability (ii) potential for energetic melt-coolant interactions (steam explosions). Risk Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM+) framework is currently under development for quantification of the risks associated with formation of non-coolable debris bed and occurrence of steam explosions, both presenting a credible threats to containment integrity. The ROAAM+ framework consist of loosely coupled models that describe each stage of the accident progression. Core relocation analysis framework provides initial conditions for melt vessel interaction, vessel failure and melt release frameworks. The properties of relocated debris and melt release conditions, including in-vessel and ex-vessel pressure, lower drywell pool depth and temperature, are sensitive to the accident scenarios and timing of safety systems recovery and operator actions. This paper illustrates a methodological approach and relevant data for establishing a connection between core relocation and vessel failure analysis in ROAAM+ approach. MELCOR code is used for analysis of core degradation and relocation phenomena. Properties of relocated debris are obtained as functions of the accident scenario

  13. Systems Analysis, Scenario Construction and Consequence Analysis Definition for SITE-94

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chapman, N A; Robinson, P [Intera Information Technologies Ltd (United Kingdom); Andersson, Johan; Wingefors, S [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Skagius, K; Wiborgh, M [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Wene, C O [Chalmers Inst. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden)

    1995-06-01

    SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. This report uses scenario definition work as a vehicle to introduce the systems approach to performance assessment which has been developed and tested in SITE-94 and which constitutes one of the main advances made during the project. The results of the application of the methodology are presented separately, in the SITE-94 Summary Report. 40 refs, 21 figs, 12 tabs.

  14. Systems Analysis, Scenario Construction and Consequence Analysis Definition for SITE-94

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, N.A.; Robinson, P.; Andersson, Johan; Wingefors, S.; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M.; Wene, C.O.

    1995-06-01

    SITE-94 is a performance assessment of a hypothetical repository at a real site. The main objective of the project is to determine how site specific data should be assimilated into the performance assessment process and to evaluate how uncertainties inherent in site characterization will influence performance assessment results. This report uses scenario definition work as a vehicle to introduce the systems approach to performance assessment which has been developed and tested in SITE-94 and which constitutes one of the main advances made during the project. The results of the application of the methodology are presented separately, in the SITE-94 Summary Report. 40 refs, 21 figs, 12 tabs

  15. Scenario design and basic analysis of the National Data Centre Preparedness Exercise 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Ole; Ceranna, Lars; Hartmann, Gernot; Gestermann, Nicolai; Bönneman, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) prohibits all kinds of nuclear explosions. For the detection of treaty violations the International Monitoring System (IMS) operates stations observing seismic, hydroacoustic, and infrasound signals as well as radioisotopes in the atmosphere. While the IMS data is collected, processed and technically analyzed in the International Data Center (IDC) of the CTBT-Organization, National Data Centers (NDC) provide interpretation and advice to their government concerning suspicious detections occurring in IMS data. NDC Preparedness Exercises (NPE) are regularly performed dealing with fictitious treaty violations to practice the combined analysis of CTBT verification technologies and for the mutual exchange of information between NDC and also with the IDC. The NPE2010 and NPE2012 trigger scenarios were based on selected seismic events from the Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) serving as starting point for fictitious Radionuclide dispersion. The main task was the identification of the original REB event and the discrimination between earthquakes and explosions as source. The scenario design of NPE2013 differs from those of previous NPEs. The waveform event selection is not constrained to events in the REB. The exercise trigger is a combination of a tempo-spatial indication pointing to a certain waveform event and simulated radionuclide concentrations generated by forward Atmospheric Transport Modelling based on a fictitious release. For the waveform event the date (4 Sept. 2013) is given and the region is communicated in a map showing the fictitious state of "Frisia" at the Coast of the North Sea in Central Europe. The synthetic radionuclide detections start in Vienna (8 Sept, I-131) and Schauinsland (11 Sept, Xe-133) with rather low activity concentrations and are most prominent in Stockholm and Spitsbergen mid of September 2013. Smaller concentrations in Asia follow later on. The potential connection between the waveform and

  16. Ex-Vessel Steam Explosion Analysis of Central Melt Pour Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ursic, M.; Leskovar, M.

    2008-01-01

    gained at 2 bar primary system overpressure and water sub-cooling of 50 degree C. The purpose of the work presented in the paper is to perform a detailed analysis of the central melt pour scenario at 2 bar primary system overpressure and water sub-cooling of 50 degree C, where the strongest steam explosion occurred. The steam explosion analysis will be performed with the computer code MC3D, which is build mainly for the simulation of the complex FCI phenomena. The MC3D is being developed by IRSN, France. The reasons for the obtained so high pressure loads during the steam explosion in the selected scenario will be highlighted and discussed in details.(author)

  17. Demonstration of innovative techniques for work zone safety data analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-15

    Based upon the results of the simulator data analysis, additional future research can be : identified to validate the driving simulator in terms of similarities with Ohio work zones. For : instance, the speeds observed in the simulator were greater f...

  18. Keeping it pure – a pedagogical case study of teaching soft systems methodology in scenario and policy analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Yeoman

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Soft systems methodology (SSM is well documented in the academic and management literature. Over the last 40 years, the methodology has come to be adapted depending on the tool users’ skills and experience in order to fit the problem. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate good teaching and learning practice from a pedagogical perspective. Design/methodology/approach – Dr Ian Yeoman of Victoria University of Wellington provides a personal reflection of how the methodology is used in the teaching and learning of TOUR301 Tourism Policy and Planning as a policy and scenario analysis method. Findings – The paper articulates the seven stages of SSM from problem situation unstructured, through to Rich Pictures, vision and guiding principles, policy solutions, comparisons, feasibility and implementation stages. The paper uses a series of teaching tasks to breakdown the complexity of the methodology thus guiding students and teachers in how to deploy the methodology in the classroom. Originality/value – The value of the paper demonstrates the reflective practice of SSM in action as an exemplar of good practice. The paper clearly articulates the stages of the methodology so students and teachers can adopt this approach in classroom environments following a scaffolding learning approach. The use of teaching tasks throughout the paper helps bring clarity and order thus enabling the teacher to effectively teach the subject and the students to learn. The most significant contribution of this paper is the articulation of good teaching practice in policy and scenario analysis which articulated through four learning lessons: facilitating a learning environment; the impact of visual thinking; political theory; the importance of incremental learning; and problem-based learning and international students.

  19. Hydrogen for buses in London: A scenario analysis of changes over time in refuelling infrastructure costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shayegan, S.; Pearson, P.J.G.; Hart, D.

    2009-01-01

    The lack of a hydrogen refuelling infrastructure is one of the major obstacles to the introduction of the hydrogen vehicles to the road transport market. To help overcome this hurdle a likely transitional solution is to introduce hydrogen for niche applications such as buses or other types of fleet vehicles for which fuel demand is predictable and localised. This paper analyses the costs of different hydrogen production-delivery pathways, via a case study of buses in London. Scenario analysis over time (2007-2025) is used to investigate potential changes to the cost of hydrogen as a result of technology development, growing demand for hydrogen and changes in energy prices (gas and electricity). It is found that factors related to hydrogen demand have the greatest effect on the unit cost of hydrogen, while for the whole of the analysis period, on-site SMR (steam methane reforming) remains the least-cost production-delivery pathway. (author)

  20. Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCollum, David; Yang, Christopher

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the potential for making deep cuts in US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the long-term (50-80% below 1990 levels by 2050). Scenarios are used to envision how such a significant decarbonization might be achieved through the application of advanced vehicle technologies and fuels, and various options for behavioral change. A Kaya framework that decomposes GHG emissions into the product of four major drivers is used to analyze emissions and mitigation options. In contrast to most previous studies, a relatively simple, easily adaptable modeling methodology is used which can incorporate insights from other modeling studies and organize them in a way that is easy for policymakers to understand. Also, a wider range of transportation subsectors is considered here-light- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, rail, marine, agriculture, off-road, and construction. This analysis investigates scenarios with multiple options (increased efficiency, lower-carbon fuels, and travel demand management) across the various subsectors and confirms the notion that there are no 'silver bullet' strategies for making deep cuts in transport GHGs. If substantial emission reductions are to be made, considerable action is needed on all fronts, and no subsectors can be ignored. Light-duty vehicles offer the greatest potential for emission reductions; however, while deep reductions in other subsectors are also possible, there are more limitations in the types of fuels and propulsion systems that can be used. In all cases travel demand management strategies are critical; deep emission cuts will not likely be possible without slowing growth in travel demand across all modes. Even though these scenarios represent only a small subset of the potential futures in which deep reductions might be achieved, they provide a sense of the magnitude of changes required in our transportation system and the need for early and aggressive action if long-term targets are to be met.

  1. Global cost analysis on adaptation to sea level rise based on RCP/SSP scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumano, N.; Tamura, M.; Yotsukuri, M.; Kuwahara, Y.; Yokoki, H.

    2017-12-01

    Low-lying areas are the most vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change in the future. In order to adapt to SLR, it is necessary to decide whether to retreat from vulnerable areas or to install dykes to protect them from inundation. Therefore, cost- analysis of adaptation using coastal dykes is one of the most essential issues in the context of climate change and its countermeasures. However, few studies have globally evaluated the future costs of adaptation in coastal areas. This study tries to globally analyze the cost of adaptation in coastal areas. First, global distributions of projected inundation impacts induced by SLR including astronomical high tide were assessed. Economic damage was estimated on the basis of the econometric relationship between past hydrological disasters, affected population, and per capita GDP using CRED's EM-DAT database. Second, the cost of adaptation was also determined using the cost database and future scenarios. The authors have built a cost database for installed coastal dykes worldwide and applied it to estimating the future cost of adaptation. The unit costs of dyke construction will increase with socio-economic scenario (SSP) such as per capita GDP. Length of vulnerable coastline is calculated by identifying inundation areas using ETOPO1. Future cost was obtained by multiplying the length of vulnerable coastline and the unit cost of dyke construction. Third, the effectiveness of dyke construction was estimated by comparing cases with and without adaptation.As a result, it was found that incremental adaptation cost is lower than economic damage in the cases of SSP1 and SSP3 under RCP scenario, while the cost of adaptation depends on the durability of the coastal dykes.

  2. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark: IDA 2050, CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis), and Climate Commission 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical engineering perspective. The above-mentioned methodologies are compared in an evolutionary perspective to determine if the methodologies reflect the complex reality well. The results of the scenarios are also assessed within the framework of “radical technological change” in order to show which future scenario assumes more radical change within five dimensions of technology; technique, knowledge, organization, product, and profit. -- Highlights: ► Three future scenarios for Danish future in 2050 are compared. ► All of these scenarios suggest the same solutions for the future with minor differences. ► There are differences in methodologies for IDA 2050 and CEESA such as biomass, transport, and power grid. ► The contents of scenarios are assessed which scenario assume more radical technological change in the future.

  3. Global Inventory and Analysis of Smart Grid Demonstration Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mulder, W.; Kumpavat, K.; Faasen, C.; Verheij, F.; Vaessen, P [DNV KEMA Energy and Sustainability, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2012-10-15

    As the key enabler of a more sustainable, economical and reliable energy system, the development of smart grids has received a great deal of attention in recent times. In many countries around the world the benefits of such a system have begun to be investigated through a number of demonstration projects. With such a vast array of projects it can be difficult to keep track of changes, and to understand which best practices are currently available with regard to smart grids. This report aims to address these issues through providing a comprehensive outlook on the current status of smart grid projects worldwide.

  4. Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Chen

    Full Text Available This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU, energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI, low carbon scenario (LC and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC. The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

  5. Plant incident progress scenario analysis for nuclear emergency exercise of Fukui Pref. 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatebe, Yasumasa; Yoshida, Yoshitaka; Minami, Noritoshi

    2010-01-01

    Severe accident scenario was analyzed to assist the nuclear emergency exercise of Fukui prefecture in 2009. The evaluation of the postulated disaster was evaluated based on analysis result, including the time of occurrence of specified events, response of the plant to the AM measures, etc. The evaluation results are as follows: (1) loss of core cooling took place about 7 hours after, abnormal leakage of fission products from containment vessel to the containment annulus started about 17 hours after and the disaster terminated about 46 hours after the initiation of the accident, (2) although multiple failures of the engineered safety system and failure of AM measures were postulated in the accident scenario, the integrity of the containment vessel could be maintained successfully for a long term, if the AM measures are taken to protect the containment vessel. (3) according to the evaluation of radiation dose rate during the emergency response assuming the operation of recirculation mode using containment spray A, the dose rate could be too high for the operators to work not only in the containment spray A area but also in the another containment spray heat exchanger and the residual heat removal system heat exchanger areas. (author)

  6. Seismic response analysis of Wolsung NPP structure and equipment subjected to scenario earthquakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, In Kil; Ahn, Seong Moon; Choun, Young Sun; Seo, Jeong Moon

    2005-03-15

    The standard response spectrum proposed by US NRC has been used as a design earthquake for the design of Korean nuclear power plant structures. However, it does not reflect the characteristic of seismological and geological of Korea. In this study, the seismic response analysis of Wolsung NPP structure and equipment were performed. Three types of input motions, artificial time histories that envelop the US NRC Regulatory Guide 1.60 spectrum and the probability based scenario earthquake spectra developed for the Korean NPP site and a typical near-fault earthquake recorded at thirty sites, were used as input motions. The acceleration, displacement and shear force responses of Wolsung containment structure due to the design earthquake were larger than those due to the other input earthquakes. But, considering displacement response increases abruptly as Wolsung NPP structure does nonlinear behavior, the reassessment of the seismic safety margin based on the displacement is necessary if the structure does nonlinear behavior; although it has adequate the seismic safety margin within elastic limit. Among the main safety-related devices, electrical cabinet and pump showed the large responses on the scenario earthquake which has the high frequency characteristic. This has great effects of the seismic capacity of the main devices installed inside of the building. This means that the design earthquake is not so conservative for the safety of the safety related nuclear power plant equipments.

  7. Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arne Höltl

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050. The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below 1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility, efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society’s mobility system and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility and ownership continue to increase as expected in a ‘business as usual’ case, a share of 97% plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition will be required.

  8. Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, B.

    2015-03-23

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on the behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.

  9. Seismic response analysis of Wolsung NPP structure and equipment subjected to scenario earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, In Kil; Ahn, Seong Moon; Choun, Young Sun; Seo, Jeong Moon

    2005-03-01

    The standard response spectrum proposed by US NRC has been used as a design earthquake for the design of Korean nuclear power plant structures. However, it does not reflect the characteristic of seismological and geological of Korea. In this study, the seismic response analysis of Wolsung NPP structure and equipment were performed. Three types of input motions, artificial time histories that envelop the US NRC Regulatory Guide 1.60 spectrum and the probability based scenario earthquake spectra developed for the Korean NPP site and a typical near-fault earthquake recorded at thirty sites, were used as input motions. The acceleration, displacement and shear force responses of Wolsung containment structure due to the design earthquake were larger than those due to the other input earthquakes. But, considering displacement response increases abruptly as Wolsung NPP structure does nonlinear behavior, the reassessment of the seismic safety margin based on the displacement is necessary if the structure does nonlinear behavior; although it has adequate the seismic safety margin within elastic limit. Among the main safety-related devices, electrical cabinet and pump showed the large responses on the scenario earthquake which has the high frequency characteristic. This has great effects of the seismic capacity of the main devices installed inside of the building. This means that the design earthquake is not so conservative for the safety of the safety related nuclear power plant equipments

  10. Techno-Economic Analysis of Biochemical Scenarios for Production of Cellulosic Ethanol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazi, F. K.; Fortman, J.; Anex, R.; Kothandaraman, G.; Hsu, D.; Aden, A.; Dutta, A.

    2010-06-01

    A techno-economic analysis on the production of cellulosic ethanol by fermentation was conducted to understand the viability of liquid biofuel production processes within the next 5-8 years. Initially, 35 technologies were reviewed, then a two-step down selection was performed to choose scenarios to be evaluated in a more detailed economic analysis. The lignocellulosic ethanol process was selected because it is well studied and portions of the process have been tested at pilot scales. Seven process variations were selected and examined in detail. Process designs were constrained to public data published in 2007 or earlier, without projecting for future process improvements. Economic analysis was performed for an 'nth plant' (mature technology) to obtain total investment and product value (PV). Sensitivity analysis was performed on PV to assess the impact of variations in process and economic parameters. Results show that the modeled dilute acid pretreatment process without any downstream process variation had the lowest PV of $3.40/gal of ethanol ($5.15/gallon of gasoline equivalent) in 2007 dollars. Sensitivity analysis shows that PV is most sensitive to feedstock and enzyme costs.

  11. Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P.

    2011-02-01

    which the buffer is assumed to remain intact; and a scenario in which (colloidal) bentonite erosion takes place. Variant cases for each scenario are considered to investigate sensitivities. In the latter scenario the bentonite erosion process is represented in a simplified way, and the subsequent redistribution of the bentonite within the buffer is controlled by a single rate term that acts to equalise the density of the buffer. The same buffer redistribution process is used to model the extrusion of the bentonite into the fracture. In future work this representation could be replaced by a more chemically-based representation of the erosion processes and a more mechanistic representation of the bentonite redistribution process. The modelling has been performed using Quintessa's QPAC general purpose modelling software together with relevant modules. This collection of components has previously been referred to as QPAC-EBS. By using QPAC we have been able to model coupled mechanical, hydro and chemical processes, albeit with some of the process representations being simplified, in a way that has not been done previously. A satisfactory understanding of the evolution of the EBS will be a key issue in the review of SR-Site and this work illustrates the capability to undertake independent model simulations to test the assumptions made by SKB. The objective of the work presented here was to demonstrate a flexible and independent capability that can be used to support regulatory review. Building on earlier modelling work and utilising the general-purpose QPAC software, a coupled model for the evolution of the EBS system through a sequence of glacial cycles has been developed and applied. The flexibility of the approach has been demonstrated by modelling a range of scenarios and variants covering both parameter variations and conceptual model alternatives. Although many simplifying assumptions have been made, particularly in the chemistry aspects, a rich variety of behaviour is

  12. Analysis of Barrier Performance: Modelling of Copper corrosion scenarios with and without buffer erosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benbow, Steven J.; Robinson, Peter C.; Watson, Sarah P. (Quintessa Limited, Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom))

    2011-02-15

    scenario in which the buffer is assumed to remain intact; and a scenario in which (colloidal) bentonite erosion takes place. Variant cases for each scenario are considered to investigate sensitivities. In the latter scenario the bentonite erosion process is represented in a simplified way, and the subsequent redistribution of the bentonite within the buffer is controlled by a single rate term that acts to equalise the density of the buffer. The same buffer redistribution process is used to model the extrusion of the bentonite into the fracture. In future work this representation could be replaced by a more chemically-based representation of the erosion processes and a more mechanistic representation of the bentonite redistribution process. The modelling has been performed using Quintessa's QPAC general purpose modelling software together with relevant modules. This collection of components has previously been referred to as QPAC-EBS. By using QPAC we have been able to model coupled mechanical, hydro and chemical processes, albeit with some of the process representations being simplified, in a way that has not been done previously. A satisfactory understanding of the evolution of the EBS will be a key issue in the review of SR-Site and this work illustrates the capability to undertake independent model simulations to test the assumptions made by SKB. The objective of the work presented here was to demonstrate a flexible and independent capability that can be used to support regulatory review. Building on earlier modelling work and utilising the general-purpose QPAC software, a coupled model for the evolution of the EBS system through a sequence of glacial cycles has been developed and applied. The flexibility of the approach has been demonstrated by modelling a range of scenarios and variants covering both parameter variations and conceptual model alternatives. Although many simplifying assumptions have been made, particularly in the chemistry aspects, a rich variety

  13. Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, T. F.

    2007-01-01

    In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO 2 balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented

  14. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN. PMID:26593919

  15. Development of damage control training scenarios of naval ships based on simplified vulnerability analysis results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Ki Park

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Given the growing interest in damage control training for the naval ships and their organizations, expectations for a new concept of training program have also increased. The existing training programs and its concept focus on training crew to be more proficient and skilled so that they can respond better to damage situations, i.e., fires and flooding. This paper suggests a development procedure of damage control training scenarios using the survivability analysis results as a new concept of damage control training programs employing advanced systems such as damage control console, automation system, and kill cards. This approach could help the decision maker not only enhance his or her capability but also improve the reacting capability of crew members for complex situations induced by a weapon hit.

  16. Capacity Model and Constraints Analysis for Integrated Remote Wireless Sensor and Satellite Network in Emergency Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Gengxin; Dong, Feihong; Xie, Zhidong; Bian, Dongming

    2015-11-17

    This article investigates the capacity problem of an integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network (IWSSN) in emergency scenarios. We formulate a general model to evaluate the remote sensor and satellite network capacity. Compared to most existing works for ground networks, the proposed model is time varying and space oriented. To capture the characteristics of a practical network, we sift through major capacity-impacting constraints and analyze the influence of these constraints. Specifically, we combine the geometric satellite orbit model and satellite tool kit (STK) engineering software to quantify the trends of the capacity constraints. Our objective in analyzing these trends is to provide insights and design guidelines for optimizing the integrated remote wireless sensor and satellite network schedules. Simulation results validate the theoretical analysis of capacity trends and show the optimization opportunities of the IWSSN.

  17. Demonstration of a modelling-based multi-criteria decision analysis procedure for prioritisation of occupational risks from manufactured nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Alstrup Jensen, Keld; Gottardo, Stefania; Isigonis, Panagiotis; Maccalman, Laura; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-11-01

    Several tools to facilitate the risk assessment and management of manufactured nanomaterials (MN) have been developed. Most of them require input data on physicochemical properties, toxicity and scenario-specific exposure information. However, such data are yet not readily available, and tools that can handle data gaps in a structured way to ensure transparent risk analysis for industrial and regulatory decision making are needed. This paper proposes such a quantitative risk prioritisation tool, based on a multi-criteria decision analysis algorithm, which combines advanced exposure and dose-response modelling to calculate margins of exposure (MoE) for a number of MN in order to rank their occupational risks. We demonstrated the tool in a number of workplace exposure scenarios (ES) involving the production and handling of nanoscale titanium dioxide, zinc oxide (ZnO), silver and multi-walled carbon nanotubes. The results of this application demonstrated that bag/bin filling, manual un/loading and dumping of large amounts of dry powders led to high emissions, which resulted in high risk associated with these ES. The ZnO MN revealed considerable hazard potential in vivo, which significantly influenced the risk prioritisation results. In order to study how variations in the input data affect our results, we performed probabilistic Monte Carlo sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, which demonstrated that the performance of the proposed model is stable against changes in the exposure and hazard input variables.

  18. Demonstration study on shielding safety analysis code (VI)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sawamura, Sadashi [Hokkaido Univ., Sapporo (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1999-03-01

    Dose evaluation for direct radiation and skyshine from nuclear fuel facilities is one of the environment evaluation items. This evaluation is carried out by using some shielding calculation codes. Because of extremely few benchmark data of skyshine, the calculation has to be performed very conservatively. Therefore, the benchmark data of skyshine and the well-investigated code for skyshine would be necessary to carry out the rational evaluation of nuclear facilities. The purpose of this steady is to obtain the benchmark data of skyshine and to investigate the calculation code for skyshine. In this fiscal year, the followings are investigated; (1) Construction and improvement of a pulsed radiation measurement system due to the gated counting method. (2) Using the system, carried out the radiation monitoring near and in the facility of 45 MeV Linear accelerator installed at Hokkaido University. (3) Simulation analysis of the photo-neutron production and the transport by using the EGS4 and MCNP code. (author)

  19. Geospatial analysis of food environment demonstrates associations with gestational diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahr, Maike K; Suter, Melissa A; Ballas, Jerasimos; Ramin, Susan M; Monga, Manju; Lee, Wesley; Hu, Min; Shope, Cindy D; Chesnokova, Arina; Krannich, Laura; Griffin, Emily N; Mastrobattista, Joan; Dildy, Gary A; Strehlow, Stacy L; Ramphul, Ryan; Hamilton, Winifred J; Aagaard, Kjersti M

    2016-01-01

    Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is one of most common complications of pregnancy, with incidence rates varying by maternal age, race/ethnicity, obesity, parity, and family history. Given its increasing prevalence in recent decades, covariant environmental and sociodemographic factors may be additional determinants of GDM occurrence. We hypothesized that environmental risk factors, in particular measures of the food environment, may be a diabetes contributor. We employed geospatial modeling in a populous US county to characterize the association of the relative availability of fast food restaurants and supermarkets to GDM. Utilizing a perinatal database with >4900 encoded antenatal and outcome variables inclusive of ZIP code data, 8912 consecutive pregnancies were analyzed for correlations between GDM and food environment based on countywide food permit registration data. Linkage between pregnancies and food environment was achieved on the basis of validated 5-digit ZIP code data. The prevalence of supermarkets and fast food restaurants per 100,000 inhabitants for each ZIP code were gathered from publicly available food permit sources. To independently authenticate our findings with objective data, we measured hemoglobin A1c levels as a function of geospatial distribution of food environment in a matched subset (n = 80). Residence in neighborhoods with a high prevalence of fast food restaurants (fourth quartile) was significantly associated with an increased risk of developing GDM (relative to first quartile: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-2.19). In multivariate analysis, this association held true after controlling for potential confounders (P = .002). Measurement of hemoglobin A1c levels in a matched subset were significantly increased in association with residence in a ZIP code with a higher fast food/supermarket ratio (n = 80, r = 0.251 P analysis, a relationship of food environment and risk for gestational diabetes was

  20. A scenario-based modeling approach for emergency evacuation management and risk analysis under multiple uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lv, Y., E-mail: lvyying@hotmail.com [School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044 (China); Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Huang, G.H., E-mail: huang@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Guo, L., E-mail: guoli8658@hotmail.com [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada); Li, Y.P., E-mail: yongping.li@iseis.org [MOE Key Laboratory of Regional Energy and Environmental Systems Optimization, Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206 (China); Dai, C., E-mail: daichao321@gmail.com [College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Wang, X.W., E-mail: wangxingwei0812@gamil.com [State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Sun, W., E-mail: sunwei@iseis.org [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2 (Canada)

    2013-02-15

    Highlights: ► An interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming method is developed. ► It is useful for nuclear emergency management practices under uncertainties. ► It can schedule optimal routes with maximizing evacuees during a finite time. ► Scenario-based analysis enhances robustness in controlling system risk. ► The method will help to improve the capability of disaster responses. -- Abstract: Nuclear emergency evacuation is important to prevent radioactive harms by hazardous materials and to limit the accidents’ consequences; however, uncertainties are involved in the components and processes of such a management system. In the study, an interval-parameter joint-probabilistic integer programming (IJIP) method is developed for emergency evacuation management under uncertainties. Optimization techniques of interval-parameter programming (IPP) and joint-probabilistic constrained (JPC) programming are incorporated into an integer linear programming framework, so that the approach can deal with uncertainties expressed as joint probability and interval values. The IJIP method can schedule the optimal routes to guarantee the maximum population evacuated away from the effected zone during a finite time. Furthermore, it can also facilitate post optimization analysis to enhance robustness in controlling system violation risk imposed on the joint-probabilistic constraints. The developed method has been applied to a case study of nuclear emergency management; meanwhile, a number of scenarios under different system conditions have been analyzed. It is indicated that the solutions are useful for evacuation management practices. The result of the IJIP method can not only help to raise the capability of disaster responses in a systematic manner, but also provide an insight into complex relationships among evacuation planning, resources utilizations, policy requirements and system risks.

  1. Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

    2016-12-15

    Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling fates and impacts for bio-economic analysis of hypothetical oil spill scenarios in San Francisco Bay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, D.; Whittier, N.; Sankaranarayanan, S.; Jennings, J.; Etkin, D.S.

    2002-01-01

    The oil spill risks associated with four submerged rock pinnacles near Alcatraz Island in San Francisco Bay are being evaluated by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Oil spill modeling has been conducted for a hypothetical oil spill to determine biological impacts, damages to natural resources and response costs. The scenarios are hypothetical vessel grounding on the pinnacles. The SIMAP modeling software by the Applied Science Associates was used to model 3 spill sizes (20, 50 and 95 percentile by volume) and 4 types of oil (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The frequency distribution of oil fates and impacts was determined by first running each scenario in stochastic mode. The oil fates and biological effects of the spills were the focus of this paper. It was shown that diesel and crude oil spills would have greater impacts in the water column than heavy fuel or gasoline because gasoline is more volatile and less toxic and because heavy oil spills would be small in volume. It was determined that the major impacts and damage to birds would be low due to the high dilution potential of the bay. It was also noted that dispersants would be very effective in reducing impacts on wildlife and the shoreline. These results are being used to evaluate the cost-benefit analysis of removing the rocks versus the risk of an oil spill. The work demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method to estimate potential impacts that could be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. 15 refs., 13 tabs., 11 figs

  3. Risk D and D Rapid Prototype: Scenario Documentation and Analysis Tool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Seiple, Timothy E.

    2009-01-01

    Report describes process and methodology associated with a rapid prototype tool for integrating project risk analysis and health and safety risk analysis for decontamination and decommissioning projects. The objective of the Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Risk Management Evaluation and Work Sequencing Standardization Project under DOE EM-23 is to recommend or develop practical risk-management tools for decommissioning of nuclear facilities. PNNL has responsibility under this project for recommending or developing computer-based tools that facilitate the evaluation of risks in order to optimize the sequencing of D and D work. PNNL's approach is to adapt, augment, and integrate existing resources rather than to develop a new suite of tools. Methods for the evaluation of H and S risks associated with work in potentially hazardous environments are well-established. Several approaches exist which, collectively, are referred to as process hazard analysis (PHA). A PHA generally involves the systematic identification of accidents, exposures, and other adverse events associated with a given process or work flow. This identification process is usually achieved in a brainstorming environment or by other means of eliciting informed opinion. The likelihoods of adverse events (scenarios) and their associated consequence severities are estimated against pre-defined scales, based on which risk indices are then calculated. A similar process is encoded in various project risk software products that facilitate the quantification of schedule and cost risks associated with adverse scenarios. However, risk models do not generally capture both project risk and H and S risk. The intent of the project reported here is to produce a tool that facilitates the elicitation, characterization, and documentation of both project risk and H and S risk based on defined sequences of D and D activities. By considering alternative D and D sequences, comparison of the predicted risks can

  4. Scenario analysis of the new energy policy for Taiwan's electricity sector until 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Fung-Fei; Chou, Seng-Cho; Lu, Tai-Ken

    2013-01-01

    For this study, we constructed the following three case scenarios based on the Taiwanese government's energy policy: a normal scenario, the 2008 “Sustainable Energy Policy Convention” scenario, and the 2011 “New Energy Policy” scenario. We then employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) optimization model to compare the three case scenarios' energy mix for power generation for the next å15 years to further explore their possible impact on the electricity sector. The results provide a reference for forming future energy policies and developing strategic responses. - Highlights: • We constructed three case scenarios based on the Taiwan government's energy policy. • We employed a long-term Generation Expansion Planning optimization model. • A significant gap exists between the carbon reduction target and baseline. • The carbon reduction target requires a holistic resolution needed taking seriously

  5. Technology and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Integrated Scenario Analysis using the LBNL-NEMS model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koomey, J.G.; Latiner, S.; Markel, R.J.; Marnay, C.; Richey, R.C.

    1998-01-01

    This report describes an analysis of possible technology-based scenarios for the U.S. energy system that would result in both carbon savings and net economic benefits. We use a modified version of the Energy Information Administration's National Energy Modeling System (LBNL-NEMS) to assess the potential energy, carbon, and bill savings from a portfolio of carbon saving options. This analysis is based on technology resource potentials estimated in previous bottom-up studies, but it uses the integrated LBNL-NEMS framework to assess interactions and synergies among these options. The analysis in this paper builds on previous estimates of possible ''technology paths'' to investigate four major components of an aggressive greenhouse gas reduction strategy: (1) the large scale implementation of demand-side efficiency, comparable in scale to that presented in two recent policy studies on this topic; (2) a variety of ''alternative'' electricity supply-side options, including biomass cofiring, extension of the renewable production tax credit for wind, increased industrial cogeneration, and hydropower refurbishment. (3) the economic retirement of older and less efficient existing fossil-find power plants; and (4) a permit charge of $23 per metric ton of carbon (1996 $/t),l assuming that carbon trading is implemented in the US, and that the carbon permit charge equilibrates at this level. This level of carbon permit charge, as discussed later in the report, is in the likely range for the Clinton Administration's position on this topic

  6. Application of State Analysis and Goal-based Operations to a MER Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, John Richard; Ingham, Michel D.; Mishkin, Andrew H.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Starbird, Thomas W.

    2006-01-01

    State Analysis is a model-based systems engineering methodology employing a rigorous discovery process which articulates operations concepts and operability needs as an integrated part of system design. The process produces requirements on system and software design in the form of explicit models which describe the system behavior in terms of state variables and the relationships among them. By applying State Analysis to an actual MER flight mission scenario, this study addresses the specific real world challenges of complex space operations and explores technologies that can be brought to bear on future missions. The paper first describes the tools currently used on a daily basis for MER operations planning and provides an in-depth description of the planning process, in the context of a Martian day's worth of rover engineering activities, resource modeling, flight rules, science observations, and more. It then describes how State Analysis allows for the specification of a corresponding goal-based sequence that accomplishes the same objectives, with several important additional benefits.

  7. Consistent economic cross-sectoral climate change impact scenario analysis: Method and application to Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl W. Steininger

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change triggers manifold impacts at the national to local level, which in turn have various economy-wide implications (e.g. on welfare, employment, or tax revenues. In its response, society needs to prioritize which of these impacts to address and what share of resources to spend on each respective adaptation. A prerequisite to achieving that end is an economic impact analysis that is consistent across sectors and acknowledges intersectoral and economy-wide feedback effects. Traditional Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs are usually operating at a level too aggregated for this end, while bottom-up impact models most often are not fully comprehensive, focusing on only a subset of climate sensitive sectors and/or a subset of climate change impact chains. Thus, we develop here an approach which applies climate and socioeconomic scenario analysis, harmonized economic costing, and sector explicit bandwidth analysis in a coupled framework of eleven (biophysical impact assessment models and a uniform multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model. In applying this approach to the alpine country of Austria, we find that macroeconomic feedbacks can magnify sectoral climate damages up to fourfold, or that by mid-century costs of climate change clearly outweigh benefits, with net costs rising two- to fourfold above current damage cost levels. The resulting specific impact information – differentiated by climate and economic drivers – can support sector-specific adaptation as well as adaptive capacity building. Keywords: climate impact, local impact, economic evaluation, adaptation

  8. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

    2014-01-01

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  9. Simulation supported scenario analysis for water resources planning: a case study in northern italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Facchi, A.; Gandolfi, C.; Ortuani, B.; Maggi, D.

    2003-04-01

    The work presents the results of a comprehensive modelling study of surface and groundwater systems, including the interaction between irrigation and groundwater resources, for the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district, placed in the southern part of the densely-settled Lombardia plain (northern Italy). The area, of approximately 700 km2, has been selected as: a) it is representative of agricultural and irrigation practices in a wide portion of the plain of Lombardia; b) it has well defined hydrogeological borders, represented by the Adda, Po, and Lambro rivers (respectively East, South and West) and by the Muzza canal (North). The objective of the study is to assess the impact of land use and irrigation water availability on the distribution of crop water consumption in space and time, as well as on the groundwater resources in this wide portion of the Lombardia plain. To achieve this goal, a number of realistic management scenarios, currently under discussion with the regional water authority, have been taken into account. A standard 'base case' has been defined to allow comparative analysis of the results of different scenarios. To carry out the research, an integrated, distributed, catchment-scale simulation package, already developed and applied to the study area, has been used. The simulation system is based on the integration of two hydrological models - a conceptual vadose zone model and the groundwater model MODFLOW. An interface performs the explicit coupling in space and time between the two models. A GIS manages all the information relevant to the study area, as well as all the input, the spatially distributed parameters and the output of the system. The simulation package has been verified for the years 1999-2000 using land use derived from remote-sensed images, reported water availability for irrigation, observed water stage in rivers as well as groundwater level in the alluvial aquifer system.

  10. Magnetohydrodynamic modes analysis and control of Fusion Advanced Studies Torus high-current scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Villone, F.; Mastrostefano, S. [Euratom-ENEA-CREATE Ass., DIEI, Univ. di Cassino e Lazio Merid., Cassino (Italy); Calabrò, G.; Vlad, G.; Crisanti, F.; Fusco, V. [C. R. Frascati, Euratom-ENEA Ass., Via E. Fermi 45, 00044 Frascati (Italy); Marchiori, G.; Bolzonella, T.; Marrelli, L.; Martin, P. [Cons. RFX, Euratom-ENEA-RFX Ass., Corso Stati Uniti 4, 35127 Padova (Italy); Liu, Y. Q. [Euratom/CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Mantica, P. [IFP-CNR, Euratom-ENEA-CNR Ass. Via Cozzi 53, 20125 Milano (Italy)

    2014-08-15

    One of the main FAST (Fusion Advanced Studies Torus) goals is to have a flexible experiment capable to test tools and scenarios for safe and reliable tokamak operation, in order to support ITER and help the final DEMO design. In particular, in this paper, we focus on operation close to a possible border of stability related to low-q operation. To this purpose, a new FAST scenario has then been designed at I{sub p} = 10 MA, B{sub T} = 8.5 T, q{sub 95} ≈ 2.3. Transport simulations, carried out by using the code JETTO and the first principle transport model GLF23, indicate that, under these conditions, FAST could achieve an equivalent Q ≈ 3.5. FAST will be equipped with a set of internal active coils for feedback control, which will produce magnetic perturbation with toroidal number n = 1 or n = 2. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) mode analysis and feedback control simulations performed with the codes MARS, MARS-F, CarMa (both assuming the presence of a perfect conductive wall and using the exact 3D resistive wall structure) show the possibility of the FAST conductive structures to stabilize n = 1 ideal modes. This leaves therefore room for active mitigation of the resistive mode (down to a characteristic time of 1 ms) for safety purposes, i.e., to avoid dangerous MHD-driven plasma disruption, when working close to the machine limits and magnetic and kinetic energy density not far from reactor values.

  11. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis of a borehole scenario comparing Latin Hypercube Sampling and deterministic sensitivity approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harper, W.V.; Gupta, S.K.

    1983-10-01

    A computer code was used to study steady-state flow for a hypothetical borehole scenario. The model consists of three coupled equations with only eight parameters and three dependent variables. This study focused on steady-state flow as the performance measure of interest. Two different approaches to sensitivity/uncertainty analysis were used on this code. One approach, based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is a statistical sampling method, whereas, the second approach is based on the deterministic evaluation of sensitivities. The LHS technique is easy to apply and should work well for codes with a moderate number of parameters. Of deterministic techniques, the direct method is preferred when there are many performance measures of interest and a moderate number of parameters. The adjoint method is recommended when there are a limited number of performance measures and an unlimited number of parameters. This unlimited number of parameters capability can be extremely useful for finite element or finite difference codes with a large number of grid blocks. The Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation will use the technique most appropriate for an individual situation. For example, the adjoint method may be used to reduce the scope to a size that can be readily handled by a technique such as LHS. Other techniques for sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, e.g., kriging followed by conditional simulation, will be used also. 15 references, 4 figures, 9 tables

  12. Construction and Capacity Analysis of High-Rank LoS MIMO Channels in High Speed Railway Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingya Yang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The validity of the maximum capacity criterion applied to realize high-rank line-of-sight (LoS multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO channels is investigated for high speed railway scenarios. Performance is evaluated by ergodic capacity. Numerical results demonstrate that by simply adjusting antenna spacing according to the maximum capacity criterion, significant capacity gains are achievable. We find relatively low sensitivity of the system to displacements from the optimal point and angle in relatively short range. Thus, we present two proposals to reconfigure antenna arrays so as to maximize LoS MIMO capacity in the high speed railway scenarios

  13. Analysis of Multiple Spurious Operation Scenarios for Decay Heat Removal Function of CANDU Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youngseung; Bae, Yeon-kyoung; Kim, Myungsu [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The worst fire broke out in the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant on March 22, 1975. A fire occurrence in a nuclear power plant has recognized a latently serious incident. Nuclear power plants should achieve and maintain the safe shutdown conditions during and after the occurrence of a fire. Functions of the safe shutdown are five such as the shutdown function, the decay heat removal function, the containment function, monitoring and control function, and the supporting function for CANDU type reactors. The purpose of this paper is to analyze that the decay heat removal function of the safe shutdown functions for CANDU type reactors is achieved under the fire induced multiple spurious operation. The scenarios of the fire induced multiple spurious operations (MSO) for the systems used for the decay heat cooling were analyzed. Additionally, Integrated Severe Accident Analysis code for CANDU plants (ISAAC) for determining success criteria of thermal hydraulic analysis was used. Decay heat cooling systems of CANDU reactors are the auxiliary feedwater system, the emergency water supply system, and the shutdown cooling system. A big fire can threat the safety of nuclear power plants, and safe shutdown conditions. The regulatory body in Korea requires the fire hazard analysis including fire induced MSOs. The safe shutdown functions for CANDU reactors are the shutdown function, the decay heat removal function, the containment function, the monitoring and control function, and the supporting service function. The number of spurious operations for the auxiliary feedwater system is more than six and that for the emergency water supply system is one. Additionally, misoperations for the shutdown cooling system are more than two. Accordingly, if total nine components could be spuriously operated, the decay heat removal function would be lost entirely.

  14. Analysis of Multiple Spurious Operation Scenarios for Decay Heat Removal Function of CANDU Reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youngseung; Bae, Yeon-kyoung; Kim, Myungsu

    2016-01-01

    The worst fire broke out in the Browns Ferry Nuclear Power Plant on March 22, 1975. A fire occurrence in a nuclear power plant has recognized a latently serious incident. Nuclear power plants should achieve and maintain the safe shutdown conditions during and after the occurrence of a fire. Functions of the safe shutdown are five such as the shutdown function, the decay heat removal function, the containment function, monitoring and control function, and the supporting function for CANDU type reactors. The purpose of this paper is to analyze that the decay heat removal function of the safe shutdown functions for CANDU type reactors is achieved under the fire induced multiple spurious operation. The scenarios of the fire induced multiple spurious operations (MSO) for the systems used for the decay heat cooling were analyzed. Additionally, Integrated Severe Accident Analysis code for CANDU plants (ISAAC) for determining success criteria of thermal hydraulic analysis was used. Decay heat cooling systems of CANDU reactors are the auxiliary feedwater system, the emergency water supply system, and the shutdown cooling system. A big fire can threat the safety of nuclear power plants, and safe shutdown conditions. The regulatory body in Korea requires the fire hazard analysis including fire induced MSOs. The safe shutdown functions for CANDU reactors are the shutdown function, the decay heat removal function, the containment function, the monitoring and control function, and the supporting service function. The number of spurious operations for the auxiliary feedwater system is more than six and that for the emergency water supply system is one. Additionally, misoperations for the shutdown cooling system are more than two. Accordingly, if total nine components could be spuriously operated, the decay heat removal function would be lost entirely

  15. The net employment impact of energy transition in France: An input-output analysis of the 'negaWatt' scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quirion, Philippe

    2013-04-01

    We study the impact on employment in France of the implementation of the energy transition scenario built by negaWatt (2011), which provides a massive development of energy savings (through measures of sufficiency and energy efficiency) and renewable energy between 2012 and 2050. Compared to 2010, this scenario results in a halving of CO 2 emissions from energy sources in France in 2030 and a division by 16 in 2050, without capture and storage of CO 2 , without implementation of new nuclear power plant and closing existing plants after 40 years of operation at maximum. We calculate the effect on employment of the implementation of this scenario compared to a baseline scenario that extends recent developments and considers the policies already decided. The method used to calculate the effect on employment of each scenario is to calculate the cost of the main technical and organizational options used, to allocate these costs among the 118 branches of the French economy and multiply these costs by the employment content of each branch. The latter is estimated by input-output analysis, which enables the recording of jobs generated by the production of all inputs. One of two scenarios being more expensive than the other, one must take into account the negative effect on employment of funding such costs. For this, it is assumed that this additional cost is borne by households and that they decrease their consumption accordingly by the same amount. This avoids biasing the results in favour of the most expensive scenario. The implementation of negaWatt scenario leads to a positive effect on employment, on the order of 240 000 full-time equivalent jobs in 2020 and 630,000 in 2030. We study the sensitivity of results to assumptions on prices of imported energy, the evolution of labour productivity, the distribution of costs between households and governments, and finally the consumption-savings decision. The effect on employment is largely positive in all cases. (author)

  16. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Analysis of Long-term Energy and Carbon Emission Scenarios for India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajesh, N.; Kapshe, M.; Shukla, P.R.; Garg, A.; Rana, A.

    2003-01-01

    In the coming years India faces great challenges in energy and environment. The path of development chosen by India, upon which lies the future growth of energy and emission trajectories, would be greatly influenced by technological developments both within and outside the country, economic cooperation between countries, and global cooperation in limiting greenhouse gas emissions. This paper discusses the integrated modeling system used for developing and analyzing the long-term trajectories and presents results for the scenarios developed. In the context of ongoing market reforms two scenarios - accelerated and decelerated reforms - are developed depicting fast and slow progress in energy sector reforms compared to expectations in the baseline scenario. Accelerated market reforms would spur improvements in technological efficiencies. Reforms would lower investment risks in India, thereby stimulating increased levels of foreign direct investment. On the other hand in decelerated reform scenario economic growth is lower than that in the base case, there is low access to capital, and technological improvements lag behind those in the base case. In another scenario we assume specific policy interventions for penetration of renewable technologies over the baseline scenario, for promotion and accelerated deployment of renewable energy technologies over and above the baseline assumptions. A scenario with carbon (c) constraints has also been developed and the results discussed

  18. Analysis of the return to power scenario following a LBLOCA in a PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macian, R.; Tyler, T.N.; Mahaffy, J.H. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1995-09-01

    The risk of reactivity accidents has been considered an important safety issue since the beginning of the nuclear power industry. In particular, several events leading to such scenarios for PWR`s have been recognized and studied to assess the potential risk of fuel damage. The present paper analyzes one such event: the possible return to power during the reflooding phase following a LBLOCA. TRAC-PF1/MOD2 coupled with a three-dimensional neutronic model of the core based on the Nodal Expansion Method (NEM) was used to perform the analysis. The system computer model contains a detailed representation of a complete typical 4-loop PWR. Thus, the simulation can follow complex system interactions during reflooding, which may influence the neutronics feedback in the core. Analyses were made with core models bases on cross sections generated by LEOPARD. A standard and a potentially more limiting case, with increased pressurizer and accumulator inventories, were run. In both simulations, the reactor reaches a stable state after the reflooding is completed. The lower core region, filled with cold water, generates enough power to boil part of the incoming liquid, thus preventing the core average liquid fraction from reaching a value high enough to cause a return to power. At the same time, the mass flow rate through the core is adequate to maintain the rod temperature well below the fuel damage limit.

  19. Intermediate steps towards the 2000 W society in Switzerland: An energy-economic scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, Thorsten F.; Kypreos, Socrates; Barreto, Leonardo; Wokaun, Alexander

    2008-01-01

    In the future, sustainable development under the umbrella of the 2000 W society could be of major interest. Could the target of the 2000 W society, i.e. a primary energy per capita (PEC) consumption of 2000 W, be realized until 2050? Various combinations of PEC and CO 2 targets are tested, and the additional costs to be paid by the society are estimated. The assessment is carried out with the Swiss MARKAL model, a bottom-up energy-system model projecting future technology investments for Switzerland. The analysis reveals that the 2000 W society should be seen as a long-term goal. For all contemplated scenarios, a PEC consumption of 3500 W per capita (w/cap) is feasible in the year 2050. However, strong PEC consumption targets can reduce CO 2 emissions to an equivalent of 5% per decade at maximum. For stronger CO 2 emission reduction goals, corresponding targets must be formulated explicitly. At an oil price of 75 US$ 2000 /bbl in 2050, the additional (cumulative, discounted) costs to reach a 10% CO 2 reduction per decade combined with a 3500 W per capita target amount to about 40 billion US$ 2000 . On the contrary, to reach pure CO 2 reduction targets is drastically cheaper, challenging the vision of the 2000 W society

  20. Scenario-based risk analysis of winter snowstorms in the German lowlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Wulffen, Anja

    2014-05-01

    conditions. Based on these findings, an exemplary synoptic evolution of a snowstorm leading to representative infrastructure failure cascades is constructed. In a next step, an extrapolation of this obtained scenario to future climate and societal conditions as well as plausible more extreme but not yet observed meteorological conditions is planned in order to obtain a thorough analysis of possible threats to the German food distribution system and a strong foundation for future disaster mitigation planning efforts.

  1. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Fossil energy depletion (specifically peak oil) and climate change are imagined to profoundly affect human civilisation. This motivates assessment of resilience, a concept associated with the ability to persist and maintain function. Explorative scenarios may be used to cast light on what......-site renewable inputs, (3) slowly renewable inputs, (4) direct labour and (5) indirect labour. We consider the existing EmA indicators of biophysical efficiency (the unit emergy value, UEV), the degree of dependence on free, renewable, natural flows of energy (%R) and the degree of dependence on local inputs...... systems that rely primarily on on-site renewable resources appear less sensitive to societal changes. The significance of labour inputs varies among scenarios, and a higher percentage of labour inputs leads to increasing UEV in a Green Tech scenario but lower UEV in more radical energy decent scenarios...

  2. Natural gas industry in Italy. Analysis, scenarios for european union regulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazioli, R.; Ricci, A.; Valentini, A.; Baratta, R.; Battaglia, A.; Conticelli, M.; Antonioli, B.; Beccarello, M.

    2000-01-01

    Natural gas represents an energy source in strong expansion in the last years, not only in Italy but in all european countries. The forecasting and scenarios show an increasing in demand of natural gas consumption [it

  3. Scenario analysis of climate change and tourism in Spain and other European regions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanchez, A.M.

    2005-06-15

    The aim of the study is to determine the possible impact of climate change on the tourist industry in Spain, with an especial focus on coastal regions. This includes the identification of potential areas suffering a decrease in the tourist flows, as well as different regions that could see a benefit on increasing temperatures and more reliable weather predictions. To do so, a Tourism Climate Index will be used, studying the potentiality of an area for tourism considering different elements of the climate which are relevant for the tourism activities. Current and future climatological scenarios over the main tourist sites in Spain will be built. In addition, the study will include an evaluation of the context around Spain, including case studies in other 5 different countries and a global description for the rest of the continent. Chapter 2 focuses mainly on the tourist sector. The global importance of this activity, together with the international tourism flows, serves as introduction to a more detailed assessment of the significant role that Spain plays as a tourist destination. The complex interrelations between climate (change) and tourism are reviewed in chapter 3. First, a brief introduction about climate change and descriptions of major projections about future climate world wide. This description is further detailed for Spain. Additionally, the interactions between tourism and climate are described thoroughly. Chapter 4 discusses the concept of 'Tourist Comfort Index', addressing key issues such as factors included and weighting. This section gives also a brief overview of the analysis and the data that was needed in the elaboration of the thesis. The implementation of the index and the results for current climate and future climate is presented. After the data analysis, chapter 5 provides an in-depth discussion of the results and compares them with other studies. This chapter is followed by the conclusions and recommendations in chapter 6.

  4. Life cycle assessment of Italian citrus-based products. Sensitivity analysis and improvement scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beccali, Marco; Cellura, Maurizio; Iudicello, Maria; Mistretta, Marina

    2010-07-01

    Though many studies concern the agro-food sector in the EU and Italy, and its environmental impacts, literature is quite lacking in works regarding LCA application on citrus products. This paper represents one of the first studies on the environmental impacts of citrus products in order to suggest feasible strategies and actions to improve their environmental performance. In particular, it is part of a research aimed to estimate environmental burdens associated with the production of the following citrus-based products: essential oil, natural juice and concentrated juice from oranges and lemons. The life cycle assessment of these products, published in a previous paper, had highlighted significant environmental issues in terms of energy consumption, associated CO(2) emissions, and water consumption. Starting from such results the authors carry out an improvement analysis of the assessed production system, whereby sustainable scenarios for saving water and energy are proposed to reduce environmental burdens of the examined production system. In addition, a sensitivity analysis to estimate the effects of the chosen methods will be performed, giving data on the outcome of the study. Uncertainty related to allocation methods, secondary data sources, and initial assumptions on cultivation, transport modes, and waste management is analysed. The results of the performed analyses allow stating that every assessed eco-profile is differently influenced by the uncertainty study. Different assumptions on initial data and methods showed very sensible variations in the energy and environmental performances of the final products. Besides, the results show energy and environmental benefits that clearly state the improvement of the products eco-profile, by reusing purified water use for irrigation, using the railway mode for the delivery of final products, when possible, and adopting efficient technologies, as the mechanical vapour recompression, in the pasteurisation and

  5. Wind power scenario generation through state-space specifications for uncertainty analysis of wind power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Díaz, Guzmán; Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier; Coto, José

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • State space representations for simulating wind power plant output are proposed. • The representation of wind speed in state space allows structural analysis. • The joint model incorporates the temporal and spatial dependence structure. • The models are easily integrable into a backward/forward sweep algorithm. • Results evidence the remarkable differences between joint and marginal models. - Abstract: This paper proposes the use of state space models to generate scenarios for the analysis of wind power plant (WPP) generation capabilities. The proposal is rooted on the advantages that state space models present for dealing with stochastic processes; mainly their structural definition and the use of Kalman filter to naturally tackle some involved operations. The specification proposed in this paper comprises a structured representation of individual Box–Jenkins models, with indications about further improvements that can be easily performed. These marginal models are combined to form a joint model in which the dependence structure is easily handled. Indications about the procedure to calibrate and check the model, as well as a validation of its statistical appropriateness, are provided. Application of the proposed state space models provides insight on the need to properly specify the structural dependence between wind speeds. In this paper the joint and marginal models are smoothly integrated into a backward–forward sweep algorithm to determine the performance indicators (voltages and powers) of a WPP through simulation. As a result, visibly heavy tails emerge in the generated power probability distribution through the use of the joint model—incorporating a detailed description of the dependence structure—in contrast with the normally distributed power yielded by the margin-based model.

  6. Power sector scenarios for Thailand: An exploratory analysis 2002-2022

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulugetta, Yacob; Mantajit, Nathinee; Jackson, Tim

    2007-01-01

    Power sector scenarios for Thailand are constructed in this paper to represent the range of opportunities and constraints associated with divergent set of technical and policy options. They include Business-As-Usual (BAU), No-New-Coal (NNC), and Green Futures (GF) scenarios over a 20-year period (2002-2022). The results from the BAU scenario show that fossil fuels will continue to dominate electricity generation in Thailand during the study period. Similar results are obtained for the NNC option, although the dependence shifts from coal and oil towards natural gas-based power generation. This may represent a better environmental pathway but an all out shift from coal to natural gas is likely to increase Thailand's dependence on imported fuel, making it more vulnerable to unstable global oil and gas prices. The GF scenario offers a more optimistic route that allows the country to confront its energy security dilemma whilst fulfilling its environmental commitments by giving renewable energy technologies a prominent place in the country's power generation mix. Over the study period, our result showed little difference between the three scenarios in terms of financing new generation plants despite an early misgiving about the viability of an ambitious renewable energy programme. This paper also goes beyond the financial evaluation of each scenario to provide a comparison of the scenarios in terms of their greenhouse gas emissions together with the comparative costs of emissions reductions. Indeed, if such externalities are taken into account to determine 'viability', the GF scenario represents an attractive way forward for the Thai power sector

  7. EnerFuture: Long Term Energy Scenarios 'Understanding our energy future'. Key graphs and analysis, Enerdata - Global Energy Forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Enerdata analyses 4 future energy scenarios accounting for 2 economic growth assumptions combined with 2 alternative carbon emission mitigation policies. In this study, a series of analyses supported by graphs assess the energy consumption and intensity forecasts in emerging and developed markets. In particular, one analysis is dedicated to energies competition, including gas, coal and renewable energies. (authors)

  8. Feasibility study on the potential of development of renewable energies for the ZAC de l'Horloge in Romainville. Study of opportunities in renewable energies and definition of energy supply scenarios. Analysis and comparison of energy supply scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-12-01

    A first report proposes an overview of available renewable energy sources (geothermal, solar, and wind energy, green electricity, methanization, wood energy, waste water valorisation, connection to an existing heat network). For each of them, it presents a resource assessment, a discussion of constraints, or, should the occasion occur an overview of local providers (for wood), or an assessment of different options (small and large wind energy installations). It also presents demands made by existing sites on the studied area and at its neighbourhood. Energy supply scenarios are briefly defined. The second report proposes an analysis and a comparison of these scenarios. After a presentation of hypotheses and methodology, scenarios are presented in terms of energy needs, energy production and its relationship with the performance of positive energy buildings, adequacy with resource. Beside a reference scenario, these scenarios are named Dogger, Biomass, Wood, Clustered sectors. Comparison is performed in terms of energetic, economic and environmental assessments

  9. I spy with my little eye: Analysis of airline pilots' gaze patterns in a manual instrument flight scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslbeck, Andreas; Zhang, Bo

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze pilots' visual scanning in a manual approach and landing scenario. Manual flying skills suffer from increasing use of automation. In addition, predominantly long-haul pilots with only a few opportunities to practice these skills experience this decline. Airline pilots representing different levels of practice (short-haul vs. long-haul) had to perform a manual raw data precision approach while their visual scanning was recorded by an eye-tracking device. The analysis of gaze patterns, which are based on predominant saccades, revealed one main group of saccades among long-haul pilots. In contrast, short-haul pilots showed more balanced scanning using two different groups of saccades. Short-haul pilots generally demonstrated better manual flight performance and within this group, one type of scan pattern was found to facilitate the manual landing task more. Long-haul pilots tend to utilize visual scanning behaviors that are inappropriate for the manual ILS landing task. This lack of skills needs to be addressed by providing specific training and more practice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Low carbon and clean energy scenarios for India: Analysis of targets approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, Priyadarshi R.; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav

    2012-01-01

    Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

  11. Rural energy survey and scenario analysis of village energy consumption: A case study in Lao People's Democratic Republic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mustonen, S.M.

    2010-01-01

    In developing countries, providing all citizens an access to modern forms of energy is among the central energy policy objectives, as the linkages between modern energy services and human development are widely recognized. This paper presents in a scenario analysis of rural energy consumption, how energy services in different sectors of a village economy contribute to the achievement of the UNDP Millennium Development Goals. In a rural village in Lao People's Democratic Republic, household energy demand and energy uses were surveyed immediately prior to the electrification of the village. Based on the situation preceding electrification of the village, the development of village electrification was studied by simulating the village energy system, accounting for all village energy uses but transportation. To study the potential development of electricity demand in the village, three scenarios were constructed using the LEAP model: 'residential demand', 'income generation' and 'public services'. Energy demand in each scenario was analyzed with reference to the Millennium Development Goals.

  12. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment (RIIA): an analysis of the mid-range projection, Series C Scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honea, B.; Hillsman, E.

    1979-10-01

    The Department of Energy has hypothesized a number of alternate energy futures as part of its energy planning and analysis programs. How a proposed energy future called the Mid-Range Projection Series C Scenario would affect Federal Region VI (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas, and New Mexico) is examined in this report. This scenario assumes a medium supply and a medium demand for fuel through 1990, and it incorporates the fuel-switching provisions of the Energy Supply and Environmental Coordination Act. The report portrays the major regional environmental, human health and safety, socioeconomic, and institutional effects that might result from the realization of the Series C Scenario. This discussion should serve as a basis for further assessments, as it identifies some issues of major concern for Region VI that must be addressed in more depth.

  13. Comparison and analysis of release scenarios for ground disposal of various nations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakata, Sadahiro; Nakai, Kunihiro

    1985-01-01

    This report is aimed at comparing and analyzing the concept and evaluation methods of varuous foreign countries concerning their release scenarios for ground disposal of low- and high-level radioactive wastes in order to provide helpful information to be used in developing release scenarios for Japan. The groundwater release scenario and human intrusion scenario should particularly be well examined in considering shallow ground disposal of low-level wastes. Assessment of the leaching rate is important for a groundwater release scenario. Experimental data and verification tests are required to support the simplified model to be used for safety assessment. Evaluation of the radioactive nucleide inventory is also important for ground disposal of low-level wastes. An evaluation system should be established as soon as possible. For ground disposal of high-level radioactive wastes, on the other hand, it will become increasingly important to establish performance assessment models for practical evaluation of the rate of release from the engineered barrier and to collect test and verification data for suporting them. (Nogami, K.)

  14. Scenarios of a deregulated electricity industry. Analysis; Szenarien einer liberalisierten Stromversorgung. Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foerster, G.

    2002-07-01

    Four scenarios have been established which represent the spectrum of probable developments in the Internal Market until 2010. The content-related postulations are described in two parts. In the first part, various fundamental settings are defined which apply to all four scenarios alike, whereas in the second part a set of influencing variables (descriptors) are defined which develop along dissimilar, distinctive lines and thus can be used for modelling within the four different scenarios. Applying a special scenario analysing method, the cross-impact method, those combinations of descriptors can be derived which lead to conclusive scenarios and consistent postulations. (orig./CB) [German] Es wurden vier Szenarien erarbeitet, die das Spektrum der wahrscheinlichen Entwicklungen im EU-Binnenmarkt bis zum Jahr 2010 repraesentieren. Die inhaltlichen Aussagen werden in zwei Teilen beschrieben. Der erste Teil beinhaltet eine Reihe von Rahmengroessen, die fuer alle vier Szenarien gleich sind. Der zweite Teil besteht aus einem Satz von Einflussgroessen (Deskriptoren) mit verschiedenen Auspraegungen, in denen sich die vier Szenarien unterscheiden. Mit Hilfe einer speziellen Szenariotechnik, der Cross-Impact-Methode, bestimmt man diejenigen Kombinationen der Deskriptorauspraegungen, die zu in sich schluessigen Szenarien ohne widerspruechliche Assagen fuehren. (orig./CB)

  15. Proof-of-Concept Demonstrations for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis. Modeling Operator Performance During Flooding Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Boring, Ronald Laurids; Herberger, Sarah Elizabeth Marie; Mandelli, Diego; Smith, Curtis Lee

    2015-01-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has the overall objective to help sustain the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To accomplish this program objective, there are multiple LWRS 'pathways,' or research and development (R&D) focus areas. One LWRS focus area is called the Risk-Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway. Initial efforts under this pathway to combine probabilistic and plant multi-physics models to quantify safety margins and support business decisions also included HRA, but in a somewhat simplified manner. HRA experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been collaborating with other experts to develop a computational HRA approach, called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), for inclusion into the RISMC framework. The basic premise of this research is to leverage applicable computational techniques, namely simulation and modeling, to develop and then, using RAVEN as a controller, seamlessly integrate virtual operator models (HUNTER) with 1) the dynamic computational MOOSE runtime environment that includes a full-scope plant model, and 2) the RISMC framework PRA models already in use. The HUNTER computational HRA approach is a hybrid approach that leverages past work from cognitive psychology, human performance modeling, and HRA, but it is also a significant departure from existing static and even dynamic HRA methods. This report is divided into five chapters that cover the development of an external flooding event test case and associated statistical modeling considerations.

  16. Proof-of-Concept Demonstrations for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis. Modeling Operator Performance During Flooding Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Herberger, Sarah Elizabeth Marie [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis Lee [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has the overall objective to help sustain the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To accomplish this program objective, there are multiple LWRS “pathways,” or research and development (R&D) focus areas. One LWRS focus area is called the Risk-Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway. Initial efforts under this pathway to combine probabilistic and plant multi-physics models to quantify safety margins and support business decisions also included HRA, but in a somewhat simplified manner. HRA experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been collaborating with other experts to develop a computational HRA approach, called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), for inclusion into the RISMC framework. The basic premise of this research is to leverage applicable computational techniques, namely simulation and modeling, to develop and then, using RAVEN as a controller, seamlessly integrate virtual operator models (HUNTER) with 1) the dynamic computational MOOSE runtime environment that includes a full-scope plant model, and 2) the RISMC framework PRA models already in use. The HUNTER computational HRA approach is a hybrid approach that leverages past work from cognitive psychology, human performance modeling, and HRA, but it is also a significant departure from existing static and even dynamic HRA methods. This report is divided into five chapters that cover the development of an external flooding event test case and associated statistical modeling considerations.

  17. Design and Macroeconomic Analysis of an 'Acceptable' Low-Carbon Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

    2016-01-01

    Two observations motivate our research: the lack of acceptability of climate policies and the deficit of credibility, legitimacy and ownership of low-carbon scenarios. Both constitute a barrier to decision-making and slow the energy transition. To overcome these limitations, we have scripted a scenario using a co-development method involving 30 stakeholders from civil society and the private and public sectors. Stakeholders contributed significantly to the methodology by requesting data transparency, sensitivity tests and the clarification of economic and financial impacts. We incorporated the set of policies regarded as acceptable into the Imaclim-R model. The resulting scenario cuts CO_2 emissions by 68 % in 2050, an outcome close to the 75 % reduction target. The measures are beneficial to employment and economic growth, except in the short term. These findings provide solid foundations to build acceptable decarbonization pathways

  18. Scenario-Based Case Study Analysis of Asteroid Mitigation in the Short Response Time Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seery, B.; Greenaugh, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    Asteroid impact on Earth is a rare but inevitable occurrence, with potentially cataclysmic consequences. If a pending impact is discovered, mitigation options include civil-defense preparations as well as missions to deflect the asteroid and/or robustly disrupt and disperse it to an extent that only a negligible fraction remains on a threatening path (National Research Council's "Defending the Planet," 2010). If discovered with sufficient warning time, a kinetic impactor can deflect smaller objects, but response delays can rule out the option. If a body is too large to deflect by kinetic impactor, or the time for response is insufficient, deflection or disruption can be achieved with a nuclear device. The use of nuclear ablation is considered within the context of current capabilities, requiring no need for nuclear testing. Existing, well-understood devices are sufficient for the largest known Potentially Hazardous Objects (PHOs). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center and the Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration are collaborating to determine the critical characterization issues that define the boundaries for the asteroid-deflection options. Drawing from such work, we examine the timeline for a deflection mission, and how to provide the best opportunity for an impactor to suffice by minimizing the response time. This integrated problem considers the physical process of the deflection method (impact or ablation), along with the spacecraft, launch capability, risk analysis, and the available intercept flight trajectories. Our joint DOE/NASA team has conducted case study analysis of three distinctly different PHOs, on a hypothetical earth impacting trajectory. The size of the design reference bodies ranges from 100 - 500 meters in diameter, with varying physical parameters such as composition, spin state, and metallicity, to name a few. We assemble the design reference of the small body in question using

  19. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

  20. Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sungjun; Chung, Yanghon; Woo, Chungwon

    2015-01-01

    South Korea, as the 9th largest energy consuming in 2013 and the 7th largest greenhouse gas emitting country in 2011, established ‘Low Carbon Green Growth’ as the national vision in 2008, and is announcing various active energy policies that are set to gain the attention of the world. In this paper, we estimated the decrease of photovoltaic power generation cost in Korea based on the learning curve theory. Photovoltaic energy is one of the leading renewable energy sources, and countries all over the world are currently expanding R and D, demonstration and deployment of photovoltaic technology. In order to estimate the learning rate of photovoltaic energy in Korea, both conventional 1FLC (one-factor learning curve), which considers only the cumulative power generation, and 2FLC, which also considers R and D investment were applied. The 1FLC analysis showed that the cost of power generation decreased by 3.1% as the cumulative power generation doubled. The 2FCL analysis presented that the cost decreases by 2.33% every time the cumulative photovoltaic power generation is doubled and by 5.13% every time R and D investment is doubled. Moreover, the effect of R and D investment on photovoltaic technology took after around 3 years, and the depreciation rate of R and D investment was around 20%. - Highlights: • We analyze the learning effects of photovoltaic energy technology in Korea. • In order to calculate the learning rate, we use 1FLC (one-factor learning curve) and 2FLC methods, respectively. • 1FLC method considers only the cumulative power generation. • 2FLC method considers both cumulative power generation and knowledge stock. • We analyze a variety of scenarios by time lag and depreciation rate of R and D investment

  1. Demonstration of impact performance of the nuclear transport package in on-site hypothetical collision scenarios by a heavy goods vehicle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tso, C.F.; Izatt, C.

    2004-01-01

    Spent fuel modules are contained in Module Removal Container (MRC) during on-site transport at the D154 facilities in the Devonport Naval Dockyard in the United Kingdom. The container is transported on its own on a Low Level Transfer Trolley (LLTT) and accommodated within a Transfer Frame. The LLTT travels on rails and moves either under its own power or towed by a Rail Tug Unit. The Transfer Frame provides a secure means of support to the MRC during transit and provides impact protection in the event of collision. The MRC is accommodated within the Transfer Frame by way of a sub-frame assembly. It rests on its sub-frame and is held in a vertical position by a number of support arms bolted to the Frame. The Transfer Frame is attached to the Low Level Transfer Trolley by a combination of bolts and shear pins. The combination of LLTT, Transfer Frame, sub-frame and a MRC is known as a Nuclear Transport Package (NTP). The design basis vehicle impact accident specifies a collision from a 20 tonne vehicle travelling at 20 mph from any direction. In order to satisfy the safety functional requirements, the NTP is required to meet the following conditions: The NTP should not overturn as a complete assembly following the impact. The Transfer Frame should not detach from the LLTT, and with the attachments remaining within the Level D stress limits specified in the ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code Section 3. The MRC should be shown to withstand any potential impacts of the vehicle in the event of failure of any of the frame members. The frame must not transmit as a result of the vehicle impact, to either container, loads that would compromise their shielding and containment boundaries. The performance of the NTP was substantiated by finite element (FE) analysis, using the explicit non-linear transient code LS-DYNA. The work formed part of the site license application for the D154 facilities

  2. Radio Propagation Analysis of Industrial Scenarios within the Context of Ultra-Reliable Communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wassie, Dereje Assefa; Rodriguez Larrad, Ignacio; Berardinelli, Gilberto

    2018-01-01

    One of the 5G use cases, known as ultra-reliable communication (URC), is expected to support very low packet error rate on the order of 10^(−5) with a 1 ms latency. In an industrial scenario, this would make possible replacing wired connections with wireless for controlling critical processes...

  3. Analysis and Comparison of 24 GHz cmWave Radio Propagation in Urban and Suburban Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodriguez, Ignacio; Portela Lopes de Almeida, Erika; Abreu, Renato

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a measurement-based comparison of cm-wave propagation in urban and suburban scenarios at 24 GHz with transmitter antennas located above rooftop level. Different sets of directional measurements, exploring the full azimuth and the range from -30 to +30 degrees in elevation, were...

  4. HYDROLOGIC MODEL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH SIMULATING FUTURE LAND-COVER/USE SCENARIOS: A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    GIS-based hydrologic modeling offers a convenient means of assessing the impacts associated with land-cover/use change for environmental planning efforts. Alternative future scenarios can be used as input to hydrologic models and compared with existing conditions to evaluate pot...

  5. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  6. The 20-20-20 Package. Reform of Ets and scenarios cost analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clo, S.

    2008-01-01

    This article firstly analyses the important improvements that the European Commission indents to bring to the Ets, to its framework and functioning. The article intends to assess the impact of the 20-20-20 Package to the Italian industry, by analysing the different cost scenarios presented in the European Commission Impact Assessment. [it

  7. Securing the future in the anthropocene: A critical analysis of the millennium ecosystem assessment scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert P. Marzec

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This commentary analyzes the ontological character of the United Nations’ Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005 and its attempt to imagine business-as-usual and transformative human-environmental futures. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA constitutes the first and most significant attempt by an international political body to incorporate environmental concerns into the field of imaginative scenario building. In addition to its lengthy report on the threatened status of planetary ecosystems, the MA contains extensive “future scenarios” that imagine how human-environmental relations might unfold over the course of the twenty-first century. These scenarios arise out of the lineage of military scenarios generated during the Cold War, and continue to inform UN assessments in the present. This commentary explores how a politico-military concern for security informs the framework of the scenarios, and limits how the MA characterizes the fundamental human act of narration. In the process, the commentary explores alternative ontologies of narration and how these may lead to more transformative narratological interventions.

  8. 40 CFR 68.25 - Worst-case release scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.25 Worst-case release... processes, one worst-case release scenario for each Program 1 process; (2) For Program 2 and 3 processes: (i... toxic substances from covered processes under worst-case conditions defined in § 68.22; (ii) One worst...

  9. Scenario-Based Analysis on the Structural Change of Land Uses in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land Use/Land Cover change (LUCC is a key aspect of global environmental change, which has a significant impact on climate change. In the background of increasing global warming resulting from greenhouse effect, to understand the impact of land use change on climate change is necessary and meaningful. In this study, we choose China as the study area and explore the possible land use change trends based on the AgLU module and ERB module of global change assessment model (GCAM model and Global Change Assessment Model. We design three scenarios based on socioeconomic development and simulated the corresponding structure change of land use according to the three scenarios with different parameters. Then we simulate the different emission of CO2 under different scenarios based on the simulation results of structure change of land use. At last, we choose the most suitable scenario that could control the emission of CO2 best and obtain the relatively better land use structure change for adaption of climate change. Through this research we can provide a theoretical basis for the future land use planning to adapt to climate change.

  10. Strategies to reduce the environmental impact of an aluminium pressure die casting plant: A scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neto, B.; Kroeze, C.; Hordijk, L.; Costa, C.; Pulles, M.P.J.

    2009-01-01

    This study explores a model (MIKADO) to analyse scenarios for the reduction of the environmental impact of an aluminium die casting plant. Our model calculates the potential to reduce emissions, and the costs associated with implementation of reduction options. In an earlier paper [Neto, B., Kroeze,

  11. Interference analysis in a LTE-A HetNet scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monteiro, Nuno; Mihovska, Albena D.; Rodrigues, Antonio

    2013-01-01

    -coordination algorithms based on game theory for scenarios with different access policies. The results are given in terms of user and cell throughputs. They show that although the use of closed access policies can benefit from the use of cell-driven algorithms, open access policy is preferential to use with user...

  12. Cluster Risk of Walking Scenarios Based on Macroscopic Flow Model and Crowding Force Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Li

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, accidents always happen in confined space such as metro stations because of congestion. Various researchers investigated the patterns of dense crowd behaviors in different scenarios via simulations or experiments and proposed methods for avoiding accidents. In this study, a classic continuum macroscopic model was applied to simulate the crowded pedestrian flow in typical scenarios such as at bottlenecks or with an obstacle. The Lax–Wendroff finite difference scheme and artificial viscosity filtering method were used to discretize the model to identify high-density risk areas. Furthermore, we introduced a contact crowding force test of the interactions among pedestrians at bottlenecks. Results revealed that in the most dangerous area, the individual on the corner position bears the maximum pressure in such scenarios is 90.2 N, and there is an approximate exponential relationship between crowding force and density indicated by our data. The results and findings presented in this paper can facilitate more reasonable and precise simulation models by utilizing crowding force and crowd density and ensure the safety of pedestrians in high-density scenarios.

  13. Logs Analysis of Adapted Pedagogical Scenarios Generated by a Simulation Serious Game Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callies, Sophie; Gravel, Mathieu; Beaudry, Eric; Basque, Josianne

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents an architecture designed for simulation serious games, which automatically generates game-based scenarios adapted to learner's learning progression. We present three central modules of the architecture: (1) the learner model, (2) the adaptation module and (3) the logs module. The learner model estimates the progression of the…

  14. Quantifying Improbability: An Analysis of the Lloyd’s of London Business Blackout Cyber Attack Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scenarios that describe cyber attacks on the electric grid consistently predict significant disruptions to the economy and citizens quality of life...phenomena that deserve further investigation, such as the importance of some individual power plants in influencing the adversarys probability of

  15. Scenario Analysis of Natural Gas Consumption in China Based on Wavelet Neural Network Optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyun Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Natural gas consumption has increased with an average annual growth rate of about 10% between 2012 and 2017. Total natural gas consumption accounted for 6.4% of consumed primary energy resources in 2016, up from 5.4% in 2012, making China the world’s third-largest gas user. Therefore, accurately predicting natural gas consumption has become very important for market participants to organize indigenous production, foreign supply contracts and infrastructures in a better way. This paper first presents the main factors affecting China’s natural gas consumption, and then proposes a hybrid forecasting model by combining the particle swarm optimization algorithm and wavelet neural network (PSO-WNN. In PSO-WNN model, the initial weights and wavelet parameters are optimized using PSO algorithm and updated through a dynamic learning rate to improve the training speed, forecasting precision and reduce fluctuation of WNN. The experimental results show the superiority of the proposed model compared with ANN and WNN based models. Then, this study conducts the scenario analysis of the natural gas consumption from 2017 to 2025 in China based on three scenarios, namely low scenario, reference scenario and high scenario, and the results illustrate that the China’s natural gas consumption is going to be 342.70, 358.27, 366.42 million tce (“standard” tons coal equivalent in 2020, and 407.01, 437.95, 461.38 million tce in 2025 under the low, reference and high scenarios, respectively. Finally, this paper provides some policy suggestions on natural gas exploration and development, infrastructure construction and technical innovations to promote a sustainable development of China’s natural gas industry.

  16. Municipal scale scenario: Analysis of an Italian seaside town with MarkAL-TIMES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Comodi, G.; Cioccolanti, L.; Gargiulo, M.

    2012-01-01

    This work presents three 25-year energy scenarios developed with the TIMES model generator for Pesaro, a seaside municipality in central Italy. It evaluates the effectiveness of local-scale energy policies in three sectors: households, transport, and the public sector (PS). Since the local energy demand is affected by summer tourism, seasonal consumption by holiday homes was also studied. Three scenarios were hypothesized: Business as Usual (BAU), Exemplary Public Sector (EPS), and Exemplary Municipality (EM). The EPS scenario models the exemplary role that recent European directives attribute to the PS in setting energy efficiency and technology penetration targets for itself; the EM scenario extends these targets to the household sector. In particular, the study underscores the potential of micro-cogeneration technologies in achieving local environmental targets, even though their diffusion would involve an increase in local energy consumption due to internalization of the primary energy used to produce electricity, which would no longer be wholly imported from outside municipal boundaries. The study provides information to local decision-makers by estimating the cost of implementing a number of energy policies. Finally, the study discusses the adequacy of TIMES as a tool to analyse municipal-scale scenarios. - Highlights: ► The main sectors investigated are transportation, household, and public sector. ► To account of touristic season holyday homes are modelled separately. ► Energy efficiency and renewables can help to highly reduce local consumptions. ► Micro-chp increases local consumption internalizing electricity self-production. ► Provide an insight on the adequacy of the use of TIMES at municipal scale.

  17. Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yun; Hao, Fanghua; Meng, Wei; Fu, Jiafeng

    2014-08-01

    China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. A Demonstrative Analysis of News Articles Using Fairclough’s Critical Discourse Analysis Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roy Randy Y. Briones

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to demonstrate Norman Fairclough’s Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA framework by conducting internal and external level analyses on two online news articles that report on the Moro Islamic Liberation Front’s (MILF submission of its findings on the “Mamasapano Incident” that happened in the Philippines in 2015. In performing analyses using this framework, the social context and background for these texts, as well as the relationship between the internal discourse features and the external social practices and structures in which the texts were produced are thoroughly examined. As a result, it can be noted that from the texts’ internal discourse features, the news articles portray ideological and social distinctions among social actors such as the Philippine Senate, the SAF troopers, the MILF, the MILF fighters, and the civilians. Moreover, from the viewpoint of the texts as being external social practices, the texts maintain institutional identities as news reports, but they also reveal some evaluative stance as exemplified by the adjectival phrases that the writers employed. Having both the internal and external features examined, it can be said that the way these texts were written seems to portray power relations that exist between the Philippine government and the MILF. Key words: Critical Discourse Analysis, discourse analysis, news articles, social practices, social structures, power relations

  19. Investigating 100% renewable energy supply at regional level using scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annicka Waenn

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Energy modelling work in Ireland to date has mainly taken place at a national level. A regional modelling approach is necessary however, for Ireland to reach the ambitious targets for renewable energy and emissions reduction. This paper explores the usefulness of the energy modelling tool EnergyPLAN in investigating the energy system of the South West Region of Ireland. This paper estimates a 10.5% current renewable energy share of energy use, with 40% renewable electricity. We build and assess a reference scenario and three renewable energy scenarios from a technological and resources perspective. The results show that sufficient resources are available for the South West Region energy system to become 100% renewable and quantifies the land-use implications. Moreover, EnergyPLAN can be a useful tool in exploring different technical solutions. However, thorough investigations of as many alternatives as possible, is necessary before major investments are made in a future energy system.

  20. Performance Analysis of Relays in LTE for a Realistic Suburban Deployment Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coletti, Claudio; Mogensen, Preben; Irmer, Ralf

    2011-01-01

    Relays are likely to play an important role in the deployment of Beyond 3G networks, such as LTE-Advanced, thanks to the possibility of effectively extending Macro network coverage and fulfilling the expected high data-rate requirements. Up until now, the relay technology potential and its cost......-effectiveness have been widely investigated in the literature, considering mainly statistical deployment scenarios, like regular networks with uniform traffic distribution. This paper is envisaged to illustrate the performances of different relay technologies (In-Band/Out-band) in a realistic suburban network...... scenario with real Macro site positions, user density map and spectrum band availability. Based on a proposed heuristic deployment algorithm, results show that deploying In-band relays can significantly reduce the user outage if high backhaul link quality is ensured, whereas Out-band relaying and the usage...

  1. Comparative analysis of hourly and dynamic power balancing models for validating future energy scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pillai, Jayakrishnan R.; Heussen, Kai; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2011-01-01

    Energy system analyses on the basis of fast and simple tools have proven particularly useful for interdisciplinary planning projects with frequent iterations and re-evaluation of alternative scenarios. As such, the tool “EnergyPLAN” is used for hourly balanced and spatially aggregate annual......, the model is verified on the basis of the existing energy mix on Bornholm as an islanded energy system. Future energy scenarios for the year 2030 are analysed to study a feasible technology mix for a higher share of wind power. Finally, the results of the hourly simulations are compared to dynamic frequency...... simulations incorporating the Vehicle-to-grid technology. The results indicate how the EnergyPLAN model may be improved in terms of intra-hour variability, stability and ancillary services to achieve a better reflection of energy and power capacity requirements....

  2. Influence of reinforcement's corrosion into hyperstatic reinforced concrete beams: a probabilistic failure scenarios analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. PELLIZZER

    Full Text Available AbstractThis work aims to study the mechanical effects of reinforcement's corrosion in hyperstatic reinforced concrete beams. The focus is the probabilistic determination of individual failure scenarios change as well as global failure change along time. The limit state functions assumed describe analytically bending and shear resistance of reinforced concrete rectangular cross sections as a function of steel and concrete resistance and section dimensions. It was incorporated empirical laws that penalize the steel yield stress and the reinforcement's area along time in addition to Fick's law, which models the chloride penetration into concrete pores. The reliability theory was applied based on Monte Carlo simulation method, which assesses each individual probability of failure. The probability of global structural failure was determined based in the concept of failure tree. The results of a hyperstatic reinforced concrete beam showed that reinforcements corrosion make change into the failure scenarios modes. Therefore, unimportant failure modes in design phase become important after corrosion start.

  3. Indentification and analysis of nonlinear transition scenarios using NOLOT/PSE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hein, S.; Stolte, A.; Dallmann, U.C. (Goettingen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik)

    1999-01-01

    Laminar-turbulent transition of quasi-three-dimensional boundary-layer flows is investigated by nonlinear nonlocal instability theory based on parabolized stability equations (PSE). A strong TS-CF interaction scenario is described, which leads to a rapid rise in skin-friction coefficient indicating imminent breakdown of the laminar flow. The CF-CF interaction studies reproduce amplitude saturation observed in experiment, but do not provide an explanation for the final breakdown in crossflow-dominated boundary layers yet. (orig.)

  4. Indentification and analysis of nonlinear transition scenarios using NOLOT/PSE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hein, S.; Stolte, A.; Dallmann, U.C. [Goettingen Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik

    1999-12-01

    Laminar-turbulent transition of quasi-three-dimensional boundary-layer flows is investigated by nonlinear nonlocal instability theory based on parabolized stability equations (PSE). A strong TS-CF interaction scenario is described, which leads to a rapid rise in skin-friction coefficient indicating imminent breakdown of the laminar flow. The CF-CF interaction studies reproduce amplitude saturation observed in experiment, but do not provide an explanation for the final breakdown in crossflow-dominated boundary layers yet. (orig.)

  5. Analysis of a Scenario for Chaotic Quantal Slowing Down of Inspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    On exposure to opiates, preparations from rat brain stems have been observed to continue to produce regular expiratory signals, but to fail to produce some inspiratory signals. The numbers of expirations between two successive inspirations form an apparently random sequence. Here, we propose an explanation based on the qualitative theory of dynamical systems. A relatively simple scenario for the dynamics of interaction between the generators of expiratory and inspiratory signals produces pseudo-random behaviour of the type observed. PMID:24040967

  6. Analysis of a postulated accident scenario involving loss of forced flow in a LMFBR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreira, M.L.

    1985-01-01

    A model to analyse a postulated accident scenario involving loss of forced flow in the reactor vessel of a LMFBR is used. Five phases of the accident are analysed: Natural Circulation, Subcooled Boiling, Nucleate Boiling, Core Dryout and Cladding melt. The heat conduction in the fuel cladding, coolant and lower and upper plenum are calculated by a lump-parameter model. Physical data of a prototype LMFBR reactor were used for the calculation. (author)

  7. Scenario analysis of China's emissions pathways in the 21st century for low carbon transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Tao; Watson, Jim

    2010-01-01

    China's growing demand for energy - and its dependence on coal - has seen its carbon emissions increase more than 50% since 2000. Within the debate about mitigating global climate change, there is mounting pressure for emerging economies like China to take more responsibility for reducing their carbon emissions within a post-2012 international climate change policy framework. For China, this leads to fundamental questions about how feasible it is for the country to shift away from its recent carbon intensive pattern of growth. This paper presents some general results of scenarios that have been developed to investigate how China might continue to develop within a cumulative carbon emissions budget. The results show how changes in the key sectors of the Chinese economy could enable China to follow four different low carbon development pathways, each of which complies with a cumulative emissions constraint. Each scenario reflects different priorities for governmental decision making, infrastructure investments and social preferences. Having compared the key features of each scenario, the paper concludes with some implications for Chinese government policy.

  8. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

  9. Analysis of the stability of PTW riders in autonomous braking scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symeonidis, Ioannis; Kavadarli, Gueven; Erich, Schuller; Graw, Matthias; Peldschus, Steffen

    2012-11-01

    While fatalities of car occupants in the EU decreased remarkably over the last decade, Powered Two Wheelers (PTWs) fatalities still increase following the increase of PTW ownership. Autonomous braking systems have been implemented in several types of vehicles and are presently addressed by research in the field of PTWs. A major concern in this context is the rider stability. Experiments with volunteers were performed in order to find out whether autonomous braking for PTWs will produce a greater instability of the rider in comparison to manual braking. The PTW's braking conditions were simulated in a laboratory with a motorcycle mock-up mounted on a sled, which was accelerated with an average of 0.35 g. The motion of the rider was captured in autonomous braking scenarios with and without pre-warning as well as in manual braking scenarios. No significant differences between the scenarios were found with respect to maximum forward displacement of the volunteer's torso and head (pautonomous braking at low deceleration will not cause significant instabilities of the rider in comparison to manual braking in idealized laboratory conditions. Based on this, further research into the development and implementation of autonomous braking systems for PTWs, e.g. by extensive riding tests, seems valuable. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Cosmological Analysis of Dynamical Chern-Simons Modified Gravity via Dark Energy Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Jawad

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to study the cosmological evolution of the universe in the framework of dynamical Chern-Simons modified gravity. We take pilgrim dark energy model with Hubble and event horizons in interacting scenario with cold dark matter. For this scenario, we discuss cosmological parameters such as Hubble and equation of state and cosmological plane like ωϑ-ωϑ′ and squared speed of sound. It is found that Hubble parameter approaches the ranges 75-0.5+0.5 (for u=2 and (74, 74.30 (for u=1,-1,-2 for Hubble horizon pilgrim dark energy. It implies the ranges 74.80-0.005+0.005 (for u=2 and (73.4, 74 (for u=-2 for event horizon pilgrim dark energy. The equation of state parameter provides consistent ranges with different observational schemes. Also, ωϑ-ωϑ′ planes lie in the range (ωϑ=-1.13-0.25+0.24,ωϑ′<1.32. The squared speed of sound shows stability for all present models in the present scenario. We would like to mention here that our results of various cosmological parameters show consistency with different observational data like Planck, WP, BAO, H0, SNLS, and WMAP.

  11. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  12. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis: Quantitative Estimates Used to Facilitate Working Group Discussions (2008-2010)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braccio, R.; Finch, P.; Frazier, R.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides details on the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative (HCEI) Scenario Analysis to identify potential policy options and evaluate their impact on reaching the 70% HECI goal, present possible pathways to attain the goal based on currently available technology, with an eye to initiatives under way in Hawaii, and provide an 'order-of-magnitude' cost estimate and a jump-start to action that would be adjusted with a better understanding of the technologies and market.

  13. [New paradigm for soil and water conservation: a method based on watershed process modeling and scenario analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, A-Xing; Chen, La-Jiao; Qin, Cheng-Zhi; Wang, Ping; Liu, Jun-Zhi; Li, Run-Kui; Cai, Qiang-Guo

    2012-07-01

    With the increase of severe soil erosion problem, soil and water conservation has become an urgent concern for sustainable development. Small watershed experimental observation is the traditional paradigm for soil and water control. However, the establishment of experimental watershed usually takes long time, and has the limitations of poor repeatability and high cost. Moreover, the popularization of the results from the experimental watershed is limited for other areas due to the differences in watershed conditions. Therefore, it is not sufficient to completely rely on this old paradigm for soil and water loss control. Recently, scenario analysis based on watershed modeling has been introduced into watershed management, which can provide information about the effectiveness of different management practices based on the quantitative simulation of watershed processes. Because of its merits such as low cost, short period, and high repeatability, scenario analysis shows great potential in aiding the development of watershed management strategy. This paper elaborated a new paradigm using watershed modeling and scenario analysis for soil and water conservation, illustrated this new paradigm through two cases for practical watershed management, and explored the future development of this new soil and water conservation paradigm.

  14. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the simulation of a station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghione, Alberto; Noel, Brigitte; Vinai, Paolo; Demazière, Christophe

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor is analyzed using CATHARE. • Input and model uncertainties relevant to the transient, are considered. • A statistical methodology for the propagation of the uncertainties is applied. • No safety criteria are exceeded and sufficiently large safety margins are estimated. • The most influential uncertainties are determined with a sensitivity analysis. - Abstract: An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the simulation of a station blackout scenario in the Jules Horowitz Reactor (JHR) is presented. The JHR is a new material testing reactor under construction at CEA on the Cadarache site, France. The thermal-hydraulic system code CATHARE is applied to investigate the response of the reactor system to the scenario. The uncertainty and sensitivity study was based on a statistical methodology for code uncertainty propagation, and the ‘Uncertainty and Sensitivity’ platform URANIE was used. Accordingly, the input uncertainties relevant to the transient, were identified, quantified, and propagated to the code output. The results show that the safety criteria are not exceeded and sufficiently large safety margins exist. In addition, the most influential input uncertainties on the safety parameters were found by making use of a sensitivity analysis.

  15. Global energy context: future scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo

    2006-01-01

    After a brief analysis of the history of global energy consumption, this paper discusses a plausible scenario of energy needs and related carbon emissions for the rest of the century. The global outlook and the probable evolution of several factors that impact on energy policy considerations - even on the local scale - demonstrate the great complexity and planetary dimension of the problems, as well as the almost certain sterility of out-of-context domestic energy-policy measures [it

  16. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  17. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  18. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhar, Subash; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2015-01-01

    Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible. -- Highlights: •India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change. •Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security. •Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 °C stabilisation. •Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. •Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation

  19. Planning nature in urbanized countries. An analysis of monetary and non-monetary impacts of conservation policy scenarios in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijtsma, Frans J; van der Bilt, Willem G M; van Hinsberg, Arjen; de Knegt, Bart; van der Heide, Martijn; Leneman, Hans; Verburg, René

    2017-03-01

    Planning and conserving nature areas are challenging tasks in urbanized and intensively used countries like the Netherlands. This paper supports decision making and public policy debate about these tasks in both an empirical and a methodological way. Empirically, we explore policy alternatives by determining the potential consequences of different nature policy scenarios in the Netherlands. Methodologically, we employ a mixed monetary and non-monetary evaluation method known as multi-criteria cost-benefit analysis (MCCBA). We evaluate four new future directions of Dutch nature policy that address four dominant stakeholder demands: biodiversity conservation, the provision of ecosystem services, recreational potential as well as economic gains. To balance compact presentation of evaluation outcomes on the one hand and information richness of results on the other, we distinguish between two impact indicator sets: three "headline" and ten "elaborate" indicators. Using these indicators we discuss the quantitative assessment of the four nature policy scenarios by comparing them to two other scenarios, reflecting the 2010 stand-still baseline situation (2010) as well as a reference policy (Trend). In total, we evaluate six scenarios; four present new directions and two reflect existing or recently (2010) halted practices. Our findings first of all show that even in an urbanized country like the Netherlands, with its intensive competition among land use functions, serious gains in national and international biodiversity are possible. Second, we find that it is doubtful whether stimulating the provision of regulating ecosystem services in a country which applies intensive and profitable agricultural techniques is beneficial. Other countries or areas that are less suitable for intensive agricultural practices may be more logical for this. Finally we demonstrate that increasing urban recreational green space - a common challenge for many urban areas - can only be achieved at

  20. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher...... imports, besides causing more CO2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based...

  1. Transdisciplinary Evaluation of Energy Scenarios for a German Village Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Schmuck

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA can assist local decision processes towards selecting renewable energy systems as it is able to manage qualitative data and offers opportunities to integrate knowledge from local stakeholders. However, little experience is available regarding practical applications of MCDA in real decision processes in communities on their path towards a renewable energy supply. Within the “Bioenergy-Region Ludwigsfelde” project, an MCDA evaluation has been applied to a small village on its way to becoming a “bioenergy village”. Here, MCDA has been combined with already established tools accompanying the process to becoming a “bioenergy village”, such as planning workshops, citizens’ meetings and best-practice trips. A comprehensive set of sustainability criteria was applied aimed at addressing the questions of local actors. An emphasis was placed on social criteria that comprise the perceived values of local impacts. In general, it was observed that MCDA provides many benefits for this application context. In particular, the group weighting using the SIMOS method demonstrated good results in the process. However, for real-world applications of MCDA, the challenge of data compilation in particular must be addressed.

  2. Sensitivity analysis of synergistic collaborative scenarios towards sustainable nuclear energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fesenko, G.; Kuznetsov, V.; Poplavskaya, E.

    2013-01-01

    The paper presents results of the study on the role of collaboration among countries towards sustainable global nuclear energy systems. The study explores various market shares for nuclear fuel cycle services, possible scale of collaboration among countries and assesses benefits and issues relevant for collaboration between suppliers and users of nuclear fuel cycle services. The approach used in the study is based on a heterogeneous world model with grouping of the non-personified nuclear energy countries according to different nuclear fuel cycle policies. The methodology applied in the analysis allocates a fraction of future global nuclear energy generation to each of such country-groups as a function of time. The sensitivity studies performed show the impacts of the group shares on the scope of collaboration among countries and on the resulting possible reactor mix and nuclear fuel cycle infrastructure versus time. The study quantitatively demonstrates that the synergistic approach to nuclear fuel cycle has a significant potential for offering a win-win collaborative strategy to both, technology holders and technology users on their joint way to future sustainable nuclear energy systems. The study also highlights possible issues on such a collaborative way. (authors)

  3. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action

  4. Regional analysis of social characteristics for evacuation resource planning: ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Allan Baez,; Sleeter, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    Local planning is insufficient for regional catastrophes; regional exercises are needed to test emergency plans and decision-making structures. The ARkStorm scenario would trigger a mass evacuation that would be complicated by the social characteristics of populations [e.g., vehicle ownership, age, poverty, English language limitation (ELL), and shelter needs]. Land cover data and dasymetric mapping improves the allocation of residential populations and their social characteristics to the ARkStorm flood zone in 21 counties in California. Numbers and concentrations of county, urban, and rural residents exposed to flooding as well as populations in and out of the scenario flood zone are profiled. The results inform mass evacuation planning by providing a means to (1) examine the sufficiency of mutual aid agreements, (2) underscore planning for carless populations, and (3) tailor multilingual communication strategies. The various geographical distinctions emphasize different challenges throughout the region. It will be important to investigate behavioral responses to warnings, identify evacuation constraints (e.g., shelter capacity versus need), and obtain comparable data on transient populations.

  5. CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Qiang; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Huiquan; He, Peng

    2017-01-01

    China announced its promise on CO_2 emission peak. When and what level of CO_2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO_2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO_2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO_2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO_2 emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO_2 emission trend are discussed.

  6. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation - Dallas technical capability analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Technical Capability Analysis for the United States : Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the Dallas U.S. 75 Integrated Corridor : Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstration. The ...

  7. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation, San Diego technical capability analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Technical Capability Analysis for the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the San Diego Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstration. The ICM proje...

  8. Enzymatic solubilisation and degradation of soybean fibre demonstrated by viscosity, fibre analysis and microscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Jonas Laukkonen; Martens, Helle Juel; Pettersson, Dan

    2015-01-01

    The effect of a commercial multienzyme product obtained by fermentation from Aspergillus aculeatus on soybean and soybean meal was investigated using viscosity measurements, dietary fibre component analysis and different microscopy techniques utilizing histochemical dyes and antibody labelling....... The results obtained demonstrated a strong viscosity reducing effect of the enzyme preparation on soluble galactomannan and xyloglucan polysaccharides and in addition non-starch polysaccharide analysis demonstrated a notable solubilisation of all polysaccharide constituents. The degradation...

  9. Analysis of a Spanish energy scenario with Generation IV nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ochoa, Raquel; Jimenez, Gonzalo; Perez-Martin, Sara

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Spanish energy scenario for the hypothetical deployment of Gen-IV SFR reactors. • Availability of national resources is assessed, considering SFR’s breeding. • An assessment of the impact of transmuting MA on the final repository. • SERPENT code with own pre- and post-processing tools were employed. • The employed SFR core design is based on the specifications of the CP-ESFR. - Abstract: The advantages of fast-spectrum reactors consist not only of an efficient use of fuel through the breeding of fissile material and the use of natural or depleted uranium, but also of the potential reduction of the amount of actinides such as americium and neptunium contained in the irradiated fuel. The first aspect means a guaranteed future nuclear fuel supply. The second fact is key for high-level radioactive waste management, because these elements are the main responsible for the radioactivity of the irradiated fuel in the long term. The present study aims to analyze the hypothetical deployment of a Gen-IV Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR) fleet in Spain. A nuclear fleet of fast reactors would enable a fuel cycle strategy different than the open cycle, currently adopted by most of the countries with nuclear power. A transition from the current Gen-II to Gen-IV fleet is envisaged through an intermediate deployment of Gen-III reactors. Fuel reprocessing from the Gen-II and Gen-III Light Water Reactors (LWR) has been considered. In the so-called advanced fuel cycle, the reprocessed fuel used to produce energy will breed new fissile fuel and transmute minor actinides at the same time. A reference case scenario has been postulated and further sensitivity studies have been performed to analyze the impact of the different parameters on the required reactor fleet. The potential capability of Spain to supply the required fleet for the reference scenario using national resources has been verified. Finally, some consequences on irradiated final fuel inventory are assessed

  10. Analysis and validation center for ITER RH maintenance scenarios in a virtual environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elzendoorn, B.S.Q.; Baar, M. de; Hamilton, D.; Heemskerk, C.J.M.; Koning, J.F.; Ronden, D.M.S.

    2012-01-01

    A facility for detailed simulation of maintenance processes in the ITER Hot Cell Facility (HCF) has been taken into operation. The facility mimics the Remote Handling (RH) work-cells as are presently foreseen. Novel virtual reality (VR) technology, extended with a physics engine is used to create a realistic setting in which a team of Remote Handling (RH) operators can interact with a virtual Hot Cell environment. The physics engine is used to emulate the Hot Cell behavior and to provide tactile feed-back of the (virtual) slave. Multi-operator maintenance scenarios can be developed and tested in virtual reality. Complex interactions between the RH operators and the HCF control system software will be tested. Task performance will be quantified and operational resource consumption will be estimated.

  11. REAL OPTIONS ANALYSIS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT SCENARIOS IN THE PHILIPPINES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casper Agaton

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract - With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost and lower feed-in tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continuing to use coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.

  12. Analysis and validation center for ITER RH maintenance scenarios in a virtual environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elzendoorn, B.S.Q., E-mail: B.S.Q.Elzendoorn@rijnhuizen.nl [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster and ITER-NL, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Baar, M. de [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster and ITER-NL, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Hamilton, D. [ITER Organization, Route de Vinon-sur-Verdon, CS 90 046, 13067 St. Paul-lez-Durance Cedex (France); Heemskerk, C.J.M. [Heemskerk Innovative Technology, Sassenheim (Netherlands); Koning, J.F.; Ronden, D.M.S. [FOM-Institute for Plasma Physics Rijnhuizen, Association EURATOM-FOM, Partner in the Trilateral Euregio Cluster and ITER-NL, PO Box 1207, 3430 BE, Nieuwegein (Netherlands)

    2012-03-15

    A facility for detailed simulation of maintenance processes in the ITER Hot Cell Facility (HCF) has been taken into operation. The facility mimics the Remote Handling (RH) work-cells as are presently foreseen. Novel virtual reality (VR) technology, extended with a physics engine is used to create a realistic setting in which a team of Remote Handling (RH) operators can interact with a virtual Hot Cell environment. The physics engine is used to emulate the Hot Cell behavior and to provide tactile feed-back of the (virtual) slave. Multi-operator maintenance scenarios can be developed and tested in virtual reality. Complex interactions between the RH operators and the HCF control system software will be tested. Task performance will be quantified and operational resource consumption will be estimated.

  13. Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market: A scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reneses, Javier; Centeno, Efraim

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market during two periods: the first phase (2005-2007) and the second phase (2008-2012). A market-equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies. Scenarios involving CO 2 -emission prices, hydro conditions, demand, fuel prices and renewable generation are considered. This valuation will show the significance of CO 2 -emission prices as regards Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices, generation mix, utilities profits and the total CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for Spain and Portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In conclusion, the Iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the Kyoto targets, except in very favorable conditions (CO 2 -emission prices over Euro 15/ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies)

  14. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for an urban nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2009-05-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. This study examines shelter-evacuate policies and effectiveness focusing on a 10 kt scenario in Los Angeles. The goal is to provide technical insights that can support development of urban response plans. Results indicate that extended shelter-in-place can offer the most robust protection when high quality shelter exists. Where less effective shelter is available and the fallout radiation intensity level is high, informed evacuation at the appropriate time can substantially reduce the overall dose to personnel. However, uncertainties in the characteristics of the fallout region and in the exit route can make evacuation a risky strategy. Analyses indicate that only a relatively small fraction of the total urban population may experience significant dose reduction benefits from even a well-informed evacuation plan.

  15. Analysis of sheltering and evacuation strategies for a national capital region nuclear detonation scenario.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Ann S.; Brandt, Larry D.

    2011-12-01

    Development of an effective strategy for shelter and evacuation is among the most important planning tasks in preparation for response to a low yield, nuclear detonation in an urban area. Extensive studies have been performed and guidance published that highlight the key principles for saving lives following such an event. However, region-specific data are important in the planning process as well. This study examines some of the unique regional factors that impact planning for a 10 kT detonation in the National Capital Region. The work utilizes a single scenario to examine regional impacts as well as the shelter-evacuate decision alternatives at one exemplary point. For most Washington, DC neighborhoods, the excellent assessed shelter quality available make shelter-in-place or selective transit to a nearby shelter a compelling post-detonation strategy.

  16. Establishment of a maintenance plan based on quantitative analysis in the context of RCM in a JIT production scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alebrant Mendes, Angélica; Duarte Ribeiro, José Luis

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a quantitative method for supporting the preparation or review of an equipment maintenance plan in a Just-in-time production scenario. The proposed method includes the following steps: (i) identifying the parts that influence reliability; (ii) surveying the failure rates and times to repair the parts; (iii) classification of parts according to the effect of their failures; (iv) surveying the line occupation parameters; (v) identifying the probability distributions for time to failure, time to repair, and line occupation; (vi) simulating the production and maintenance using the Monte Carlo approach; (vii) conducting a sensitivity analysis concerning variations in demand, MTTF, and MTTR; and (viii) establishing optimized intervals for preventive maintenance. The method is illustrated through an application in a labeling and filling gallons line at a paints and dyes production company. This method allowed the identification of critical parts as it relates to the productive scenario in question. The results can support companies in their decision making regarding the need and/or type of maintenance investment that would best fit an expected demand scenario

  17. Detailed analysis of the bundle damage scenario in the PHEBUS FPT0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Rae Joon; Kim, Sang Baik; Kim, Hee Dong; Yoo, Kun Joong

    1998-03-01

    The PHEBUS FP program and the test facility have been investigated, and the late phase melt progression in the PHEBUS FPT0 has been analyzed in the present study. The objectives of this program are to investigate fission product (FP) release and this program consists of six in-pile tests, which are FPT0, FPT1, FPT4, FPT2, FPT5, and FPT3, under different thermal hydraulic and fuel rod environment conditions. The first test, FPT0, was performed in December 1993, and the second test, FPT1, was performed in July 1996. The present study has been performed to evaluate a late phase damage scenario of the fuel bundle using the FPT0 test results, which are primarily a non-destructive Post Irradiation Examination (PIE) and a destructive PIE. The fuel bundle degradation scenario is summarized as follows: the fuel rod cladding failed at approximately 7,000 seconds; the control rod materials ruptured at 11,000 seconds; the stainless-steel reaction occurs at approximately 12,100 seconds; the upper fuel bundle materials melted and relocated to the elevation between 35 and 45 cm at the period between 14,750 and 15,200 seconds; the molten pool and the debris were formed at the elevation between 26 and 36 cm at the period between 15,200 and 18,100 seconds; the molten pool and the debris dropped the elevation between 15 and 25 cm from the bfc at approximately 18,100 seconds; the molten pool was finally quenched by the injected steam. (author). 45 refs., 10 tabs., 73 figs

  18. Maximum forseeable accident analysis made by a sodium leak on the BN-800 primary circuit and the more constraining accident development scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanenko, V.N.; Zybin, V.A.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper the different ways of development for the BN-800 maximum credible accident in case of loss and fire of primary sodium are examined. The more constraining scenario is presented. During the scenario analysis the accidental release of radioactive materials in the environment has been studied. These releases are below the authorized values [fr

  19. A scenario analysis of future energy systems based on an energy flow model represented as functionals of technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kikuchi, Yasunori; Kimura, Seiichiro; Okamoto, Yoshitaka; Koyama, Michihisa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Energy flow model was represented as the functionals of technology options. • Relationships among available technologies can be visualized by developed model. • Technology roadmapping can be incorporated into the model as technical scenario. • Combination of technologies can increase their contribution to the environment. - Abstract: The design of energy systems has become an issue all over the world. A single optimal system cannot be suggested because the availability of infrastructure and resources and the acceptability of the system should be discussed locally, involving all related stakeholders in the energy system. In particular, researchers and engineers of technologies related to energy systems should be able to perform the forecasting and roadmapping of future energy systems and indicate quantitative results of scenario analyses. We report an energy flow model developed for analysing scenarios of future Japanese energy systems implementing a variety of feasible technology options. The model was modularized and represented as functionals of appropriate technology options, which enables the aggregation and disaggregation of energy systems by defining functionals for single technologies, packages integrating multi-technologies, and mini-systems such as regions implementing industrial symbiosis. Based on the model, the combinations of technologies on both energy supply and demand sides can be addressed considering not only the societal scenarios such as resource prices, economic growth and population change but also the technical scenarios including the development and penetration of energy-related technologies such as distributed solid oxide fuel cells in residential sectors and new-generation vehicles, and the replacement and shift of current technologies such as heat pumps for air conditioning and centralized power generation. The developed model consists of two main modules; namely, a power generation dispatching module for the

  20. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  1. Life Cycle Analysis of the Production of FT-Fuels. 4 Different Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blinge, M. [Chalmers University of Technology (Sweden); Rehnlund, B. [Atrax Energi AB (Sweden); Larsen, U.; Lundorf, P.; Ivarsson, A.; Schramm, J. [Technical University of Denmark (Denmark)

    2006-11-15

    This paper deals with aspects concerning the life cycle aspects regarding Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels. Four different scenarios are being analysed based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) figures. The results etc presented below emanates from a project undertaken by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Implementing Agreement on Advanced Motor Fuels (IEA/AMF). The project has been carried out as an IEA/AMF annex, number XXXI, with financial support from the USA, Finland and Denmark. Some important results from the scenario studies based on the evaluated LCA data are: Production and use of GTL fuel has the potential of contributing about the same or slightly less greenhouse gas to the atmosphere than production and use of conventional diesel; Production and use of CTL emits more than twice as much greenhouse gases compared to traditional fuels; Production and use of BTL reduces the emissions of greenhouse gases by 60-90 %; To substitute 15 % of the EU 15 countries fuel consumption would an area of 310 000 km2 be cultivated with Salix. This corresponds to an area of the size of Poland. It would also require 122 FTplants of 1,6 GW; Theoretically, it is possible supply the worlds need for energy with biomass. However, planning the production, the localization of plants, building the infrastructure, this will take time and requires heavy long-term investments; The demand for Natural gas is increasing and there is no way for the US to meet an increased demand from supplying the vehicle fleet with F-T fuels from domestic reserves. With the political situation in the Middle East and in Venezuela, it doesn't seem likely that this solution will ease the US problems with reducing their oil dependences. The IEA/AMF project has also included emission tests on road vehicles fuelled by FT-Gasoline. These tests have been performed by The Technical University of Denmark and will be presented in another presentation at the ISAF XVI, 'Emissions from Road Vehicles Fuelled

  2. Systemic analysis of production scenarios for bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass [abstract

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghysel, F.

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Defining alternatives for non-renewable energy sources constitutes a priority to the development of our societies. One of these alternatives is biofuels production starting from energy crops, agricultural wastes, forest products or wastes. In this context, a "second generation" biofuels production, aiming at utilizing the whole plant, including ligno-cellulosic (hemicelluloses, cellulose, lignin fractions (Ogier et al., 1999 that are not used for human food, would allow the reduction of the drawbacks of bioethanol production (Schoeling, 2007. However, numerous technical, economical, ethical and environmental questions are still pending. One of the aims of the BioEtha2 project, directed by the Walloon Agricultural Research Centre, is to define the position of bioethanol produced from ligno-cellulosic biomass among the different renewable energy alternatives that could be developed in Wallonia towards 2020. With this aim, and in order to answer the numerous questions in this field, the project aims at using tools and methods coming from the concept of "forecasting scenarios" (Sebillotte, 2002; Slegten et al., 2007; For-learn, 2008. This concept, based on a contemporary reality, aims to explore different possible scenarios for the future development of alternative sources of energy production. The principle is to evaluate, explore, possible futures of the studied problematic, through the establishment of possible evolution trajectories. We contribute to this prospective through a systemic approach (Vanloqueren, 2007 that allows lightening the existing interactions within the system "ligno-cellulosic biomass chain" without isolating it from its environment. We explain and sketch the two contexts needed to identify primary stakes. The global context includes inter-dependant and auto-regulating fields such as society, politics, technology and economy. These four fields influence each part of the "chain" with specific tools. However, the interest and

  3. Analysis of Economical and Environmental Costs for the Selection of Municipal Solid Waste Treatment and Disposal Scenarios through Multicriteria Analysis (ELECTRE Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorena De Medina-Salas

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making for the selection of treatment alternatives and landfilling of municipal solid waste (MSW is based on the experience and judgment of those management responsible, without considering multicriteria analysis. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to determine the treatment scenario and landfilling of MSW with the lowest environmental and economic costs in a medium-sized city. The methodology included the definition and data processing of the project (population, generation, and composition of MSW, for 16 years. In the design of scenarios, recycling, composting, incineration with energy recovery, and landfilling treatments were proposed; later, the combinations of treatments for each type of residue were generated. The results showed 36 scenarios, then the ELECTRE method was applied to the five with the lowest economical and environmental costs. Finally from the latter, one dominant scenario was determined: organic waste in composting; plastic, paper, and glass in recycling; and ‘others’ in landfilling. It is concluded that the final decision on the scenario is adapted to the particular conditions of the locality.

  4. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rousis, K.; Moustakas, K.; Malamis, S.; Papadopoulos, A.; Loizidou, M.

    2008-01-01

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites

  5. Analysis of multiple failure accident scenarios for development of probabilistic safety assessment model for KALIMER-600

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, T.W.; Suk, S.D.; Chang, W.P.; Kwon, Y.M.; Jeong, H.Y.; Lee, Y.B.; Ha, K.S.; Kim, S.J.

    2009-01-01

    A sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), KALIMER-600, is under development at KAERI. Its fuel is the metal fuel of U-TRU-Zr and it uses sodium as coolant. Its advantages are found in the aspects of an excellent uranium resource utilization, inherent safety features, and nonproliferation. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) will be one of the initiating subjects for designing it from the aspects of a risk informed design (RID) as well as a technology-neutral licensing (TNL). The core damage is defined as coolant voiding, fuel melting, or cladding damage. Accident scenarios which lead to the core damage should be identified for the development of a Level-1 PSA model. The SSC-K computer code is used to identify the conditions which lead to core damage. KALIMER-600 has passive safety features such as passive shutdown functions, passive pump coast-down features, and passive decay heat removal systems. It has inherent reactivity feedback effects such as Doppler, sodium void, core axial expansion, control rod axial expansion, core radial expansion, etc. The accidents which are analyzed are the multiple failure accidents such as an unprotected transient overpower, a loss of flow, and a loss of heat sink events with degraded safety systems or functions. The safety functions to be considered here are a reactor trip, inherent reactivity feedback features, the pump coast-down, and the passive decay heat removal. (author)

  6. Multi-criteria analysis for the determination of the best WEEE management scenario in Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousis, K; Moustakas, K; Malamis, S; Papadopoulos, A; Loizidou, M

    2008-01-01

    Waste from electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) constitutes one of the most complicated solid waste streams in terms of its composition, and, as a result, it is difficult to be effectively managed. In view of the environmental problems derived from WEEE management, many countries have established national legislation to improve the reuse, recycling and other forms of recovery of this waste stream so as to apply suitable management schemes. In this work, alternative systems are examined for the WEEE management in Cyprus. These systems are evaluated by developing and applying the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method PROMETHEE. In particular, through this MCDM method, 12 alternative management systems were compared and ranked according to their performance and efficiency. The obtained results show that the management schemes/systems based on partial disassembly are the most suitable for implementation in Cyprus. More specifically, the optimum scenario/system that can be implemented in Cyprus is that of partial disassembly and forwarding of recyclable materials to the native existing market and disposal of the residues at landfill sites.

  7. Impact Analysis of Age on Fallout Fatality Estimations for IND Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-30

    dependent radiation dose response for acute effects was evaluated in detail. The analysis included data from animal studies, radiation oncology, and other...and genetic disposition. 17 Section 5. Future Work Analysis provided by the current study suggests that age-variability in dose response can...Defense Threat Reduction Agency 8725 John J. Kingman Road, MS-6201 Fort Belvoir, VA 22060-6201 Impact Analysis of Age on

  8. Scenario-Based Analysis on Water Resources Implication of Coal Power in Western China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiahai Yuan

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currently, 58% of coal-fired power generation capacity is located in eastern China, where the demand for electricity is strong. Serious air pollution in China, in eastern regions in particular, has compelled the Chinese government to impose a ban on the new construction of pulverized coal power plants in eastern regions. Meanwhile, rapid economic growth is thirsty for electric power supply. As a response, China planned to build large-scale coal power bases in six western provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Ningxia and Gansu. In this paper, the water resource implication of the coal power base planning is addressed. We find that, in a business-as-usual (BAU scenario, water consumption for coal power generation in these six provinces will increase from 1130 million m3 in 2012 to 2085 million m3 in 2020, experiencing nearly a double growth. Such a surge will exert great pressure on water supply and lead to serious water crisis in these already water-starved regions. A strong implication is that the Chinese Government must add water resource constraint as a critical point in its overall sustainable development plan, in addition to energy supply and environment protection. An integrated energy-water resource plan with regionalized environmental carrying capacity as constraints should be developed to settle this puzzle. Several measures are proposed to cope with it, including downsizing coal power in western regions, raising the technical threshold of new coal power plants and implementing retrofitting to the inefficient cooling system, and reengineering the generation process to waterless or recycled means.

  9. Epidemiological and partial budget analysis for treatment of subclinical Staphylococcus aureus intramammary infections considering microbiological and cytological scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzer, Inge-Marié; Etter, Eric M C; Donkin, Edward F; Webb, Edward C; Karzis, Joanne

    2017-12-01

    An innovative method was investigated to aid in the elimination of Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) intramammary infections (IMI) from dairy herds. A stochastic model explore the economic benefit of three-day or eight-day treatment of subclinical IMI in all S. aureus infected cows or in only those with a somatic cell count (SCC) exceeding 200,000 cells/ml. An epidemiological model was developed to run parallel to the economic model that would predict the S. aureus IMI likely to persist, develop new infections and clinical mastitis. In the economic model a first algorithm was used to consider the low prevalence (LP) scenario and made use of S. aureus prevalence information provided by retrospective analysis of microbiological and cytological results in South Africa (2008-2012). The data used considered Staphylococcus aureus prevalence from [1.495; 1.595] 95% to [6.72; 6.95] 95% for SCC≤200,000 and SCC>200,000 cells/ml respectively. A second algorithm considered the high prevalence (HP) scenario to evaluate a simulated situation with a 5[U1] [R12] to 25% prevalence. Scenarios of low or high transmission ratio (TR) were included in the model according to the hygiene management on the farm. Probabilities and costs were calculated over 255days. The economic models predicted average cost indices for low S. aureus IMI and low TR to vary from -3179 ZAR (South African Rands) when subclinical cases with SCC higher than 200,000 cell/ml were treated for eight days, to -3663 ZAR when all subclinical S. aureus IMI were treated for three days. With a HP and high TR of S. aureus the average cost indices changed from -18,042 ZAR when none to -5433 ZAR per 255days when all S. aureus IMI were treated for eight days. The epidemiological model in this study predicted substantial benefit of treatment mainly in high TR scenarios. New IMI decreased up to77% in the three-day and up to 91% in the eight-day treatment scenarios. In the HP scenarios, persistent IMI were reduced by 94%. The

  10. Soil organic carbon distribution in Mediterranean areas under a climate change scenario via multiple linear regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olaya-Abril, Alfonso; Parras-Alcántara, Luis; Lozano-García, Beatriz; Obregón-Romero, Rafael

    2017-08-15

    Over time, the interest on soil studies has increased due to its role in carbon sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, which could contribute to decreasing atmospheric CO 2 rates. In many studies, independent variables were related to soil organic carbon (SOC) alone, however, the contribution degree of each variable with the experimentally determined SOC content were not considered. In this study, samples from 612 soil profiles were obtained in a natural protected (Red Natura 2000) of Sierra Morena (Mediterranean area, South Spain), considering only the topsoil 0-25cm, for better comparison between results. 24 independent variables were used to define it relationship with SOC content. Subsequently, using a multiple linear regression analysis, the effects of these variables on the SOC correlation was considered. Finally, the best parameters determined with the regression analysis were used in a climatic change scenario. The model indicated that SOC in a future scenario of climate change depends on average temperature of coldest quarter (41.9%), average temperature of warmest quarter (34.5%), annual precipitation (22.2%) and annual average temperature (1.3%). When the current and future situations were compared, the SOC content in the study area was reduced a 35.4%, and a trend towards migration to higher latitude and altitude was observed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The use of multi criteria analysis to compare the operating scenarios of the hybrid generation system of wind turbines, photovoltaic modules and a fuel cell

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceran, Bartosz

    2017-11-01

    The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.

  12. Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

    2017-03-01

    In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Behavior Analysis Usage with Behavior Tures Adoption for Malicious Code Detection on JAVASCRIPT Scenarios Example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. M. Tumanov

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The article offers the method of malicious JavaScript code detection, based on behavior analysis. Conceptions of program behavior, program state, an algorithm of malicious code detection are described.

  14. Fuel prices scenario generation based on a multivariate GARCH model for risk analysis in a wholesale electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batlle, C.; Barquin, J.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a fuel prices scenario generator in the frame of a simulation tool developed to support risk analysis in a competitive electricity environment. The tool feeds different erogenous risk factors to a wholesale electricity market model to perform a statistical analysis of the results. As the different fuel series that are studied, such as the oil or gas ones, present stochastic volatility and strong correlation among them, a multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model has been designed in order to allow the generation of future fuel prices paths. The model makes use of a decomposition method to simplify the consideration of the multidimensional conditional covariance. An example of its application with real data is also presented. (author)

  15. End-of-life vehicle recycling and international cooperation between Japan, China and Korea: Present and future scenario analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, Jia; Yu, Jeong-Soo; Kevin, Roy Serrona

    2011-06-01

    In the area of end-of-life vehicle (ELV) recycling, Japan passed the Automobile Recycling Law in January 2005, the first in Asia. Korea followed suit with the passage of the resource circulation method in 2009. China is expected make a new recycling law in 2011. In contribution to these initiatives, Tohoku University made a comparative analysis of ELV recycling laws, advance dismantling experiments and scenario analysis to promote international cooperation. This is envisioned to introduce ELV recycling system in Japan, China and Korea and in developing countries as well. Copyright © 2011 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Impacts of Mega-droughts on Water and Food Security in the Indo-Gangetic Plains: A Paleoclimate Scenario Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, T.; Pitois, G.; Ringler, C.; Wang, D.; Rosegrant, M. W.

    2014-12-01

    Spanning over Pakistan, northern India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) is the home of several hundred million people and the "bread basket" for much of South Asia. The flat terrain, fertile soils, and favorable climate of the IGP make it agriculturally productive. However prolonged droughts caused by consecutive monsoon failures can seriously affect crop production and social wellbeing, in particular for the eastern part of the plains where agriculture remains largely rain-fed. Severe droughts were observed in the IGP historically, and recent paleoclimate studies reveal that more severe and long-lasting "mega-droughts" had happened in the distant past. Agricultural losses from major droughts can dramatically affect food systems and increase the vulnerability of resource-poor people given the delicate balance between food supply and demand under growing natural resource scarcity. To estimate the potential impacts of "mega-droughts" on the water and food systems in the IGP, we develop worst-case drought scenarios through inverse modeling of tree-ring-based PDSI reconstruction that covers the period 1300-1899 (A.D.), and analyze these historic mega-drought scenarios using IFPRI's IMPACT global water and food projections model. The base year of the IMPACT model is parameterized using socioeconomic and engineering data that reflect today's water management and infrastructure, agricultural technologies, population, income, and market institutions. The base year simulation is validated against observations to ensure model fidelity. Anticipated changes of the above factors in the future out to 2050 are specified using demographic and economic growth projections and literature data. Model simulation results represent the consequences of mega-droughts in the IGP given technological and socioeconomic conditions of today and in the future. We also explore policy options for increasing the resilience of water and food systems in the IGP, through scenario

  17. A climate profile indicator based comparative analysis of climate change scenarios with regard to maize (Zea mays L.) cultures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dios, N.; Szenteleki, K.; Ferenczy, A.; Petranyl, G. [Corvinus Univ. of Budapest (Hungary). Dept. of Mathematics and Informatics; Hufnagel, L. [Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest (Hungary). Adaptation to Climate Change Research Group

    2009-07-01

    Recent research results let us conclude that climate change might have a significant effect on the yield of wheat, barley, rye, potato and maize, and the borderlines of their area of cultivation might shift 100--150 kilometers to the north. The possible mass occurrence of new aggressive pest, pathogen and weed species in Hungary might also create a problem from plant protection. Maize is one of the most important fodder-plants. Hungary has close to the largest total cultivating area in Europe. Maize is used in many ways, thus being of outstanding economic importance. In Hungary the conditions of maize cultivation are -- except for dry years -- quite favorable in most cultural regions and complex cultivating technologies are available. It also might gain a significant role in the line of new environment-friendly alternative sources of energy. For these reasons, it is important to examine the influence of meteorological factors on maize ecosystems and this examination should include as many climate change scenarios and as long a time series as possible. Using ecological data compiled from scientific literature on pest, pathogen and weed species characteristic in maize cultures in Hungary, we defined monthly climate profile indicators and applied them to complete a comparative analysis of the historical and modelled climate change scenario meteorological data of the city of Debrecen. Our results call attention to a drastic decline of the competitive ability of maize as compared to several C{sub 4} and especially C{sub 3} plants. According to the stricter scenarios, the frequency of potential pest and pathogen damage emergency situations will grow significantly by the end of the century.

  18. Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

    1985-01-01

    This paper summarizes a demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis performed on the reactor accident consequence model CRAC2. The study was performed with uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques compiled as part of the MELCOR program. The principal objectives of the study were: 1) to demonstrate the use of the uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques on a health and economic consequence model, 2) to test the computer models which implement the techniques, 3) to identify possible difficulties in performing such an analysis, and 4) to explore alternative means of analyzing, displaying, and describing the results. Demonstration of the applicability of the techniques was the motivation for performing this study; thus, the results should not be taken as a definitive uncertainty analysis of health and economic consequences. Nevertheless, significant insights on health and economic consequence analysis can be drawn from the results of this type of study. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), a modified Monte Carlo technique, was used in this study. LHS generates a multivariate input structure in which all the variables of interest are varied simultaneously and desired correlations between variables are preserved. LHS has been shown to produce estimates of output distribution functions that are comparable with results of larger random samples

  19. An analysis of long-term scenarios for the transition to renewable energy in the Korean electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Nyun-Bae; Yun, Sun-Jin; Jeon, Eui-Chan

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes the energy, environmental and economic influences of three electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using the “Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system” (LEAP) model. The reference year was 2008. Scenarios include the baseline (BL), new governmental policy (GP) and sustainable society (SS) scenarios. The growth rate of electricity demand in the GP scenario was higher than that of the BL scenario while the growth rate in the SS scenario was lower than that of the BL scenario. Greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation in 2050 in the BL and GP scenarios were similar with current emissions. However, emissions in 2050 in the SS scenario were about 80% lower than emissions in 2008, because of the expansion of renewable electricity in spite of the phase-out of nuclear energy. While nuclear and coal-fired power plants accounted for most of the electricity generated in the BL and GP scenarios in 2050, the SS scenario projected that renewable energy would generate the most electricity in 2050. It was found that the discounted cumulative costs from 2009 to 2050 in the SS scenario would be 20 and 10% higher than that of the BL and GP scenarios, respectively. - Highlights: ► This paper analyzed three kinds of electricity scenarios in Korea by 2050 using LEAP model. Baseline and governmental policy scenarios focus on the electricity supply through nuclear expansion. ► Sustainable Society scenario focuses on demand management and renewable electricity. ► The latter improves energy security and reduces more GHG with the affordable cost.

  20. Experimental Demonstration and Theoretical Analysis of Slow Light in a Semiconductor Waveguide at GHz Frequencies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørk, Jesper; Kjær, Rasmus; Poel, Mike van der

    2005-01-01

    Experimental demonstration and theoretical analysis of slow light in a semiconductor waveguide at GHz frequencies slow-down of light by a factor of two in a semiconductor waveguide at room temperature with a bandwidth of 16.7 GHz using the effect of coherent pulsations of the carrier density...

  1. Using Musical Intervals to Demonstrate Superposition of Waves and Fourier Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    LoPresto, Michael C.

    2013-01-01

    What follows is a description of a demonstration of superposition of waves and Fourier analysis using a set of four tuning forks mounted on resonance boxes and oscilloscope software to create, capture and analyze the waveforms and Fourier spectra of musical intervals.

  2. Competing definitions: a public policy analysis of the federal recreational fee demonstration program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas A. E. More

    2003-01-01

    Problem definition theory specifies that however controls the definition of a problem is in a unique position to control debate over the issue, influence others, and determine the problem's place on the agenda. This paper uses a rhetorical analysis and a questionnaire survey of congressional aides to examine the federal Recreational Fee Demonstration Program....

  3. New Approaches to Transport Project Assessment: Reference Scenario Forecasting and Quantitative Risk Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang

    2010-01-01

    however has proved that the point estimates derived from such analyses are embedded with a large degree of uncertainty. Thus, a new scheme was proposed in terms of applying quantitative risk analysis (QRA) and Monte Carlo simulation in order to represent the uncertainties within the cost-benefit analysis....... Additionally, the handling of uncertainties is supplemented by making use of the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits (user demands i.e. travel time savings) and underestimating investment costs....

  4. A model for the analysis of a normal evolution scenarios for a deep geological granite repository for high-level radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormenzana Lopez, J.L.; Cunado, M.A.; Lopez, M.T.

    1996-01-01

    The methodology usually used to evaluate the behaviour of deep geological repositories for high-level radioactive wastes comprises three phases: Identification of factors (processes, characteristics and events) that can affect the repository. Generation of scenarios. In general, a normal evolution scenario (Reference Scenario) and various disruptive scenarios (earthquake, human intrusion, etc) are considered. Evaluation of the behaviour of the repository in each scenario. The normal evolution scenario taking into account all factors with a high probability of occurrence is the first to be analysed. The performance assessment of behaviour being carried out by ENRESA for the AGP Granite has led to the identification of 63 of these factors. To analyse repository behaviour in the normal evolution scenario, it is necessary to first of all create an integrated model of the global system. This is a qualitative model including the 63 factors identified. For a global view of a such a complex system, it is very useful to graphically display the relationship between factors in an Influence Diagram. This paper shows the Influence Diagram used in the analysis of the AGP Granite Reference Scenario. (Author)

  5. Analysis of liquid relief valves opening demand during pressure increase abnormal scenarios at Embalse nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedrossian, Gustavo C.; Gersberg, Sara

    2000-01-01

    Two hypothetical scenarios have been analyzed where, after an initiating event, Embalse nuclear power plant primary heat transport system could undergo a pressure increase. These abnormal events are a loss of feedwater to the steam generators and a loss of Class IV power supply with Class III restoration. This analysis focuses on primary system liquid relief valves action, specially on their opening demand. Calculation results show that even when these valves are expected to open during the transient, primary system maximum allowable pressure would not be exceeded if they failed to open. System response was also studied in case that one of these relief valves did not close once primary system pressure decreases. For the scenario of loss of feedwater to steam generators, if the degasser-condenser could not be bottled-up, Emergency Cooling Injection conditions would be reached due to a continuos loss of coolant. In case of loss of Class IV -and assuming degasser-condenser bottling-up as service water would not be available- it was observed that primary system should remain pressurized, and with core cooled by thermo siphoning mechanism. (author)

  6. Linking material flow analysis and resource policy via future scenarios of in-use stock: an example for copper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerst, Michael D

    2009-08-15

    A key aspect to achieving long-term resource sustainability is the development of methodologies that explore future material cycles and their environmental impact. Using a novel dynamic in-use stock model and scenario analysis, I analyzed the multilevel global copper cycle over the next 100 years. In 1990, the industrialized world had an in-use copper stock about twice as large as the developing world and a per capita in-use stock of about six times as large. By 2100, the developing world will have an in-use copper stock about three times as large as the industrialized world, but the industrialized world will maintain a per capita stock twice that of the developing world. Under a scenario of no material substitution or technological change in copper products, global in-use stock in 2100 will be about as large as currently known copper resources. However, current scrap recycling trends and exploration will alleviate absolute supply pressure but not environmental impacts from decreasing copper are grades. Additionally, unexpected emergent properties of dematerialization are observed from the in-use stock model that arise solely from the properties of stock dynamics, an infrequently discussed cause of dematerialization in the literature.

  7. Contrasting safety assessments of a runway incursion scenario: Event sequence analysis versus multi-agent dynamic risk modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stroeve, Sybert H.; Blom, Henk A.P.; Bakker, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    In the safety literature it has been argued, that in a complex socio-technical system safety cannot be well analysed by event sequence based approaches, but requires to capture the complex interactions and performance variability of the socio-technical system. In order to evaluate the quantitative and practical consequences of these arguments, this study compares two approaches to assess accident risk of an example safety critical sociotechnical system. It contrasts an event sequence based assessment with a multi-agent dynamic risk model (MA-DRM) based assessment, both of which are performed for a particular runway incursion scenario. The event sequence analysis uses the well-known event tree modelling formalism and the MA-DRM based approach combines agent based modelling, hybrid Petri nets and rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The comparison addresses qualitative and quantitative differences in the methods, attained risk levels, and in the prime factors influencing the safety of the operation. The assessments show considerable differences in the accident risk implications of the performance of human operators and technical systems in the runway incursion scenario. In contrast with the event sequence based results, the MA-DRM based results show that the accident risk is not manifest from the performance of and relations between individual human operators and technical systems. Instead, the safety risk emerges from the totality of the performance and interactions in the agent based model of the safety critical operation considered, which coincides very well with the argumentation in the safety literature.

  8. Feasibility and demonstration of a cloud-based RIID analysis system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, Michael C., E-mail: wrightmc@ornl.gov [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Hertz, Kristin L.; Johnson, William C. [Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA 94551 (United States); Sword, Eric D.; Younkin, James R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Sadler, Lorraine E. [Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA 94551 (United States)

    2015-06-01

    A significant limitation in the operational utility of handheld and backpack radioisotope identifiers (RIIDs) is the inability of their onboard algorithms to accurately and reliably identify the isotopic sources of the measured gamma-ray energy spectrum. A possible solution is to move the spectral analysis computations to an external device, the cloud, where significantly greater capabilities are available. The implementation and demonstration of a prototype cloud-based RIID analysis system have shown this type of system to be feasible with currently available communication and computational technology. A system study has shown that the potential user community could derive significant benefits from an appropriately implemented cloud-based analysis system and has identified the design and operational characteristics required by the users and stakeholders for such a system. A general description of the hardware and software necessary to implement reliable cloud-based analysis, the value of the cloud expressed by the user community, and the aspects of the cloud implemented in the demonstrations are discussed. - Highlights: • A prototype cloud-based RIID analysis system was implemented and demonstrated. • A cloud-based system was shown to be feasible with currently available technology. • A system study identified the operational characteristics required by the users. • The system study showed that the user community could derive significant benefit. • An architecture was defined for field testing by users in relevant environments.

  9. Feasibility and demonstration of a cloud-based RIID analysis system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, Michael C.; Hertz, Kristin L.; Johnson, William C.; Sword, Eric D.; Younkin, James R.; Sadler, Lorraine E.

    2015-01-01

    A significant limitation in the operational utility of handheld and backpack radioisotope identifiers (RIIDs) is the inability of their onboard algorithms to accurately and reliably identify the isotopic sources of the measured gamma-ray energy spectrum. A possible solution is to move the spectral analysis computations to an external device, the cloud, where significantly greater capabilities are available. The implementation and demonstration of a prototype cloud-based RIID analysis system have shown this type of system to be feasible with currently available communication and computational technology. A system study has shown that the potential user community could derive significant benefits from an appropriately implemented cloud-based analysis system and has identified the design and operational characteristics required by the users and stakeholders for such a system. A general description of the hardware and software necessary to implement reliable cloud-based analysis, the value of the cloud expressed by the user community, and the aspects of the cloud implemented in the demonstrations are discussed. - Highlights: • A prototype cloud-based RIID analysis system was implemented and demonstrated. • A cloud-based system was shown to be feasible with currently available technology. • A system study identified the operational characteristics required by the users. • The system study showed that the user community could derive significant benefit. • An architecture was defined for field testing by users in relevant environments

  10. A procedure for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirose, Jiro; Muramatsu, Ken

    2002-03-01

    This report presents a study on the procedures for the determination of scenario earthquakes for seismic design of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the recent years, the use of PSHA, which is a part of seismic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), to determine the design basis earthquake motions for NPPs has been proposed. The identified earthquakes are called probability-based scenario earthquakes (PBSEs). The concept of PBSEs originates both from the study of US NRC and from Ishikawa and Kameda. The assessment of PBSEs is composed of seismic hazard analysis and identification of dominant earthquakes. The objectives of this study are to formulate the concept of PBSEs and to examine the procedures for determining the PBSEs for a domestic NPP site. This report consists of three parts, namely, procedures to compile analytical conditions for PBSEs, an assessment to identify PBSEs for a model site using the Ishikawa's concept and the examination of uncertainties involved in analytical conditions. The results obtained from the examination of PBSEs using Ishikawa's concept are as follows. (a) Since PBSEs are expressed by hazard-consistent magnitude and distance in terms of a prescribed reference probability, it is easy to obtain a concrete image of earthquakes that determine the ground response spectrum to be considered in the design of NPPs. (b) Source contribution factors provide the information on the importance of the earthquake source regions and/or active faults, and allows the selection of a couple of PBSEs based on their importance to the site. (c) Since analytical conditions involve uncertainty, sensitivity analyses on uncertainties that would affect seismic hazard curves and identification of PBSEs were performed on various aspects and provided useful insights for assessment of PBSEs. A result from this sensitivity analysis was that, although the difference in selection of attenuation equations led to a

  11. Uncertainty analysis for parameters of CFAST in the main control room fire scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wanhong; Guo, Yun; Peng, Changhong [Univ. of Science and Technology of China No. 96, Anhui (China). School of Nuclear Science and Technology

    2017-07-15

    The fire accident is one of important initial events in the nuclear power plant. Moreover, the fire development process is extremely difficult and complex to predict accurately. As a result, the plant internal fire accidents have become one of the most realistic threat on the safety of the nuclear power plants. The main control room contains all the control and monitoring equipment that operators need. Once it is on fire, hostile environments would greatly impact on the safety of human operations. Therefore, fire probability safety analysis on the main control room has become a significant task. By using CFAST and Monte Carlo sampling method as a tool for fire modeling to simulate main control room on fire, we can examine uncertainty analysis for the important parameters of CFAST.

  12. Using Cognitive Task Analysis to Develop Scenario-Based Training for House-Clearing Teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-22

    R. Anderson (Ed.), Cognitive skills and their acquisition (pp. 311- 334). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum & Associates. Miles , M.B. and Huberman , A.M...analysis ( Miles & Humberman, 1994). Given the more than 100 CTA studies we have conducted to date, we Contract...mission Look at person s hands (I want to see them VISIBLE and EMPTY) Badger body language (clenched fist, thousand- mile stare, hands under table

  13. Scenario Analysis: An Integrative Study and Guide to Implementation in the United States Air Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    Environmental Analysis ...................... 3-4 3-2 Model of the Industry Environment ......................... 3-6 3-3 Model of Macroenvironment ...the industry environment The macroenvironment is the broadest level of the environment and is also termed the "general environment" or "political...economy." This level affects all industries, albeit in different ways. Examples of factqrs in the macroenvironment include inflation, interest rates, and

  14. Application of PSAT to Load Flow Analysis with STATCOM under Load Increase Scenario and Line Contingencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telang, Aparna S.; Bedekar, P. P.

    2017-09-01

    Load flow analysis is the initial and essential step for any power system computation. It is required for choosing better options for power system expansion to meet with ever increasing load demand. Implementation of Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) device like STATCOM, in the load flow, which is having fast and very flexible control, is one of the important tasks for power system researchers. This paper presents a simple and systematic approach for steady state power flow calculations with FACTS controller, static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) using command line usage of MATLAB tool-power system analysis toolbox (PSAT). The complexity of MATLAB language programming increases due to incorporation of STATCOM in an existing Newton-Raphson load flow algorithm. Thus, the main contribution of this paper is to show how command line usage of user friendly MATLAB tool, PSAT, can extensively be used for quicker and wider interpretation of the results of load flow with STATCOM. The novelty of this paper lies in the method of applying the load increase pattern, where the active and reactive loads have been changed simultaneously at all the load buses under consideration for creating stressed conditions for load flow analysis with STATCOM. The performance have been evaluated on many standard IEEE test systems and the results for standard IEEE-30 bus system, IEEE-57 bus system, and IEEE-118 bus system are presented.

  15. Planning nature in urbanized countries. An analysis of monetary and non-monetary impacts of conservation policy scenarios in the Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frans J. Sijtsma

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Planning and conserving nature areas are challenging tasks in urbanized and intensively used countries like the Netherlands. This paper supports decision making and public policy debate about these tasks in both an empirical and a methodological way. Empirically, we explore policy alternatives by determining the potential consequences of different nature policy scenarios in the Netherlands. Methodologically, we employ a mixed monetary and non-monetary evaluation method known as multi-criteria cost-benefit analysis (MCCBA. We evaluate four new future directions of Dutch nature policy that address four dominant stakeholder demands: biodiversity conservation, the provision of ecosystem services, recreational potential as well as economic gains. To balance compact presentation of evaluation outcomes on the one hand and information richness of results on the other, we distinguish between two impact indicator sets: three “headline” and ten “elaborate” indicators. Using these indicators we discuss the quantitative assessment of the four nature policy scenarios by comparing them to two other scenarios, reflecting the 2010 stand-still baseline situation (2010 as well as a reference policy (Trend. In total, we evaluate six scenarios; four present new directions and two reflect existing or recently (2010 halted practices. Our findings first of all show that even in an urbanized country like the Netherlands, with its intensive competition among land use functions, serious gains in national and international biodiversity are possible. Second, we find that it is doubtful whether stimulating the provision of regulating ecosystem services in a country which applies intensive and profitable agricultural techniques is beneficial. Other countries or areas that are less suitable for intensive agricultural practices may be more logical for this. Finally we demonstrate that increasing urban recreational green space − a common challenge for many urban areas

  16. Demonstration Analysis of Relationship Between R&D Investment and GDP

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAN Bo-tang; LIU Bai-shan; CHEN Keng

    2005-01-01

    To reveal the quantitative relationship between research and development (R&D) investment and gross domestic product (GDP) in China, we have demonstrated and analyzed the relationship between R&D investment and science and technology (S&T) progress, and based on a mount of S&T statistical data, have proceeded demonstration research of the relationship between R&D investment and GDP in China with Solow and vector auto regression (VAR) models. Cubic curve fitting and cross-correlation analysis of them with SPSS have shown that there is a strong synchronic relationship between R&D investment and GDP.

  17. SCENARIO OF AN ACCIDENT OF SOIL DAMS IN CASE OF WATER SPILL OVER A DAM CREST BY USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

    OpenAIRE

    Kuznetsov Dmitriy Viktorovich

    2016-01-01

    The scenario of a hydrodynamic accident of water flow over a crest of a soil dam is considered by the method of fault tree analysis, for which the basic reasons and controlled diagnostic indicators of an accident have been defined. Logical operators “AND”/”OR” were used for creation of a sequence of logically connected events, leading to an undesired event in the scenario of accident. The scenario of the accident was plotted in case of three basic reasons - an excessive settling of a dam cres...

  18. PA activity by using nuclear power plant safety demonstration and analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsuchiya, Mitsuo; Kamimae, Rie

    1999-01-01

    INS/NUPEC presents one of Public acceptance (PA) methods for nuclear power in Japan, 'PA activity by using Nuclear Power Plant Safety Demonstration and Analysis', by using one of videos which is explained and analyzed accident events (Loss of Coolant Accident). Safety regulations of The National Government are strictly implemented in licensing at each of basic design and detailed design. To support safety regulation activities conducted by the National Government, INS/NLTPEC continuously implement Safety demonstration and analysis. With safety demonstration and analysis, made by assuming some abnormal conditions, what impacts could be produced by the assumed conditions are forecast based on specific design data on a given nuclear power plants. When analysis results compared with relevant decision criteria, the safety of nuclear power plants is confirmed. The decision criteria are designed to help judge if or not safety design of nuclear power plants is properly made. The decision criteria are set in the safety examination guidelines by taking sufficient safety allowance based on the latest technical knowledge obtained from a wide range of tests and safety studies. Safety demonstration and analysis is made by taking the procedure which are summarized in this presentation. In Japan, various PA (Public Acceptance) pamphlets and videos on nuclear energy have been published. But many of them focused on such topics as necessity or importance of nuclear energy, basic principles of nuclear power generation, etc., and a few described safety evaluation particularly of abnormal and accident events in accordance with the regulatory requirements. In this background, INS/NUPEC has been making efforts to prepare PA pamphlets and videos to explain the safety of nuclear power plants, to be simple and concrete enough, using various analytical computations for abnormal and accident events. In results, PA activity of INS/NUPEC is evaluated highly by the people

  19. Intermediate steps towards the 2000-Watt society in Switzerland: an energy-economic scenario analysis[Dissertation 17314

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schulz, T. F

    2007-07-01

    In this dissertation by Thorsten Frank Schulz the intermediate steps necessary to realise the 2000-Watt Society in Switzerland are examined. An analysis of an energy-economic scenario shows that the 2000-Watt Society should be seen as a long-term goal. According to the author, the major changes required to allow the implementation of this project concern energy-transformation and energy-demand technologies. Electricity will, according to the author, play an important role in a service-oriented society in the future. In such a transformation even intermediate steps are associated with considerable expense. The aims of the 2000-Watt Society project are listed. Energy and CO{sub 2} balances for the domestic and transport sectors are presented and discussed. Complementary analyses are presented concerning fuel cells and wood-based fuel technologies. Finally, the implications of the 2000-Watt society and the effects of technological change are summarised and an outlook is presented.

  20. Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

    2017-01-01

    Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system configuration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. Requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated. - Highlights: • Computational model to synthesize artificial wind speed data with consistent characteristics with database. • Fourier series to capture seasonal trends in the database. • Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems. • Investigation of the effect of battery in smoothing variability of wind power generation.

  1. Detailed analysis of the TMI-2 accident scenario by using MARS/SCDAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Rae Joon; Lee, Young Jin; Chung, Bub Dong

    2009-01-01

    As part of a benchmark analysis, the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident has been analyzed by using the MARS/SCDAP computer code. This analysis has been performed to estimate the efficiency of the MARS/SCDAP computer code and the predictive qualities of its models from an initiating event to a severe accident. The MARS/SCDAP results have shown that a reduction feed water to the steam generator caused the coolant to expand and initially increased the reactor coolant system (RCS) pressure. The pilot-operated relief valve (PORV) opened when the pressure reached 15.7 MPa, with a reactor scram occurring when the pressure reached 16.3 MPa. The PORV failed to close as the RCS pressure decreased, initiating a small break loss of coolant accident. The emergency core cooling was reduced by operators who thought that the pressurizer liquid level indicated a nearly full RCS, while coolant continued to be lost from the PORV. After an initial decrease in the RCS pressure, the pressurizer pressure remained at approximately 7 MPa. After a pump termination at 6,000 seconds, the liquid level in the reactor vessel decreased, which resulted in a core uncovery. Continued core degradation with a coolant boiling caused the pressurizer pressure to increase. The MARS/SCDAP results are very similar to the TMI-2 data

  2. A SWOT Analysis of the Various Backup Scenarios Used in Electronic Medical Record Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Hwa Jeong; Kim, Hye Hyeon; Kim, Ju Han

    2011-09-01

    Electronic medical records (EMRs) are increasingly being used by health care services. Currently, if an EMR shutdown occurs, even for a moment, patient safety and care can be seriously impacted. Our goal was to determine the methodology needed to develop an effective and reliable EMR backup system. Our "independent backup system by medical organizations" paradigm implies that individual medical organizations develop their own EMR backup systems within their organizations. A "personal independent backup system" is defined as an individual privately managing his/her own medical records, whereas in a "central backup system by the government" the government controls all the data. A "central backup system by private enterprises" implies that individual companies retain control over their own data. A "cooperative backup system among medical organizations" refers to a networked system established through mutual agreement. The "backup system based on mutual trust between an individual and an organization" means that the medical information backup system at the organizational level is established through mutual trust. Through the use of SWOT analysis it can be shown that cooperative backup among medical organizations is possible to be established through a network composed of various medical agencies and that it can be managed systematically. An owner of medical information only grants data access to the specific person who gave the authorization for backup based on the mutual trust between an individual and an organization. By employing SWOT analysis, we concluded that a linkage among medical organizations or between an individual and an organization can provide an efficient backup system.

  3. Development of method for evaluating estimated inundation area by using river flood analysis based on multiple flood scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, T.; Takahashi, T.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural mitigation measures such as flood hazard map based on estimated inundation area have been more important because heavy rains exceeding the design rainfall frequently occur in recent years. However, conventional method may lead to an underestimation of the area because assumed locations of dike breach in river flood analysis are limited to the cases exceeding the high-water level. The objective of this study is to consider the uncertainty of estimated inundation area with difference of the location of dike breach in river flood analysis. This study proposed multiple flood scenarios which can set automatically multiple locations of dike breach in river flood analysis. The major premise of adopting this method is not to be able to predict the location of dike breach correctly. The proposed method utilized interval of dike breach which is distance of dike breaches placed next to each other. That is, multiple locations of dike breach were set every interval of dike breach. The 2D shallow water equations was adopted as the governing equation of river flood analysis, and the leap-frog scheme with staggered grid was used. The river flood analysis was verified by applying for the 2015 Kinugawa river flooding, and the proposed multiple flood scenarios was applied for the Akutagawa river in Takatsuki city. As the result of computation in the Akutagawa river, a comparison with each computed maximum inundation depth of dike breaches placed next to each other proved that the proposed method enabled to prevent underestimation of estimated inundation area. Further, the analyses on spatial distribution of inundation class and maximum inundation depth in each of the measurement points also proved that the optimum interval of dike breach which can evaluate the maximum inundation area using the minimum assumed locations of dike breach. In brief, this study found the optimum interval of dike breach in the Akutagawa river, which enabled estimated maximum inundation area

  4. Energy and emissions benefits of renewable energy derived from municipal solid waste: Analysis of a low carbon scenario in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, Sie Ting; Hashim, Haslenda; Lim, Jeng Shiun; Ho, Wai Shin; Lee, Chew Tin; Yan, Jinyue

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Feasibility study on the energy and GHG emission reduction for WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW) in Malaysia. • Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from WtE strategies analysed using IPCC guideline. • Scenario analysis by comparison of different WtE strategies. • Impact of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emission reduction. - Abstract: Ineffective waste management that involves dumping of waste in landfills may degrade valuable land resources and emit methane gas (CH 4 ), a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). The incineration of waste also emits polluted chemicals such as dioxin and particle. Therefore, from a solid waste management perspective, both landfilling and incineration practices pose challenges to the development of a green and sustainable future. Waste-to-energy (WtE) has become a promising strategy catering to these issues because the utilisation of waste reduces the amount of landfilled waste (overcoming land resource issues) while increasing renewable energy production. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the energy and carbon reduction potential in Malaysia for various WtE strategies for municipal solid waste (MSW). The material properties of the MSW, its energy conversion potential and subsequent greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are analysed based on the chemical compositions and biogenic carbon fractions of the waste. The GHG emission reduction potential is also calculated by considering fossil fuel displacement and CH 4 avoidance from landfilling. In this paper, five different scenarios are analysed with results indicating a integration of landfill gas (LFG) recovery systems and waste incinerator as the major and minor WtE strategies shows the highest economical benefit with optimal GHG mitigation and energy potential. Sensitivity analysis on the effect of moisture content of MSW towards energy potential and GHG emissions are performed. These evaluations of Wt

  5. Probabilistic and Scenario Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Analysis of the Mississippi Embayment Incorporating Nonlinear Site Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, C. H.; Dhar, M. S.

    2017-12-01

    The influence of deep sediment deposits of the Mississippi Embayment (ME) on the propagation of seismic waves is poorly understood and remains a major source of uncertainty for site response analysis. Many researchers have studied the effects of these deposits on seismic hazard of the area using available information at the time. In this study, we have used updated and newly available resources for seismic and liquefaction hazard analyses of the ME. We have developed an improved 3D geological model. Additionally, we used surface geological maps from Cupples and Van Arsdale (2013) to prepare liquefaction hazard maps. Both equivalent linear and nonlinear site response codes were used to develop site amplification distributions for use in generating hazard maps. The site amplification distributions are created using the Monte Carlo approach of Cramer et al. (2004, 2006) on a 0.1-degree grid. The 2014 National Seismic Hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen et al., 2014) are used to prepare seismic hazard maps. Then liquefaction hazard maps are generated using liquefaction probability curves from Holzer (2011) and Cramer et al. (2015). Equivalent linear response (w/ increased precision, restricted nonlinear behavior with depth) shows similar hazard for the ME compared to nonlinear analysis (w/o pore pressure) results. At short periods nonlinear deamplification dominates the hazard, but at long periods resonance amplification dominates. The liquefaction hazard tends to be high in Holocene and late Pleistocene lowland sediments, even with lowered ground water levels, and low in Pleistocene loess of the uplands. Considering pore pressure effects in nonlinear site response analysis at a test site on the lowlands shows amplification of ground motion at short periods. PGA estimates from ME liquefaction and MMI observations are in the 0.25 to 0.4 g range. Our estimated M7.5 PGA hazard within 10 km of the fault can exceed this. Ground motion observations from

  6. Comparative Analysis of Two Industries for Validating Green Manufacturing (GM) Framework: An Indian Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehman, Minhaj Ahemad Abdul; Shrivastava, Rakesh Lakshmikumar; Shrivastava, Rashmi Rakesh

    2017-04-01

    Green Manufacturing (GM) deals with manufacturing practices that reduces or eliminates the adverse environmental impact during any of its phases. It emphasizes the use of processes that do not contaminate the environment or hurt consumers, employees, or other stakeholders. This paper presents the comparative analysis of two Indian industries representing different sectors for validating GM framework. It also highlights the road map of the companies for achieving performance improvement through GM implementation and its impact on organisational performance. The case studies helps in evaluating the companies GM implementation and overall business performance. For this, a developed diagnostic instrument in the form of questionnaire was administered amongst employees in the companies respectively and their responses were analysed. In order to have a better understanding of the impact of GM implementation, the information about overall business performance was obtained over the last 3 years. The diagnostic instrument developed here may be used by manufacturing organisations to prioritise their management efforts to assess and implement GM.

  7. Carbon Footprint of Housing in the Leeds City Region - A Best Practice Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barrett, John; Dawkins, Elena (Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden))|(Univ. of York, Heslington, York YO10 5DD (United Kingdom))

    2008-06-15

    The Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) was commissioned by the Environment Agency to carry out a carbon footprint analysis of the housing sector, using the Leeds City Region (LCR) as an example. The aim was to determine our ability to meet the 80 per cent by 2050 challenge of energy efficiency in the housing sector. The study relates specifically to LCR but its findings will help any planning and development teams make the right decisions and gain the resources necessary to meet carbon budgets at regional and local levels. With a growing population and an additional 263,000 housing units to be built within LCR by 2026, the housing sector would need to reduce its expected total carbon dioxide emissions by 38 million tonnes between 2010 and 2026 to be on track for 80 per cent savings in 2050. The report outlines the most detailed analysis to date of the required measures to deliver a growth-based regional housing strategy, alongside reducing carbon emissions. If the city region's new and existing housing is to attain the levels of energy efficiency necessary to deliver these carbon savings, big changes will be required in the way we build, maintain and run our homes over the next 20 years. There are pockets of good practice already in the region and the study shows that by combining innovative measures on construction standards, improvements to existing housing, low and zero carbon technologies and changing behaviour of householders, LCR can achieve the necessary savings to meet its carbon budget

  8. Supplement analysis 2 of environmental impacts resulting from modifications in the West Valley Demonstration Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The West Valley Demonstration Project, located in western New York, has approximately 600,000 gallons of liquid high-level radioactive waste (HLW) in storage in underground tanks. While corrosion analysis has revealed that only limited tank degradation has taken place, the failure of these tanks could release HLW to the environment. Congress requires DOE to demonstrate the technology for removal and solidification of HLW. DOE issued the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) in 1982. The purpose of this second supplement analysis is to re-assess the 1982 Final Environmental Impact Statement's continued adequacy. This report provides the necessary and appropriate data for DOE to determine whether the environmental impacts presented by the ongoing refinements in the design, process, and operations of the Project are considered sufficiently bounded within the envelope of impacts presented in the FEIS and supporting documentation

  9. Performance demonstration program plan for RCRA constituent analysis of solidified wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-06-01

    Performance Demonstration Programs (PDPS) are designed to help ensure compliance with the Quality Assurance Objectives (QAOs) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). The PDPs are intended for use by the Department of Energy (DOE) Carlsbad Area Office (CAO) to assess and approve the laboratories and other measurement facilities supplying services for the characterization of WIPP TRU waste. The PDPs may also be used by CAO in qualifying laboratories proposing to supply additional analytical services that are required for other than waste characterization, such as WIPP site operations. The purpose of this PDP is to test laboratory performance for the analysis of solidified waste samples for TRU waste characterization. This performance will be demonstrated by the successful analysis of blind audit samples of simulated, solidified TRU waste according to the criteria established in this plan. Blind audit samples (hereinafter referred to as PDP samples) will be used as an independent means to assess laboratory performance regarding compliance with the QAOs. The concentration of analytes in the PDP samples will address levels of regulatory concern and will encompass the range of concentrations anticipated in actual waste characterization samples. Analyses that are required by the WIPP to demonstrate compliance with various regulatory requirements and which are included in the PDP must be performed by laboratories that demonstrate acceptable performance in the PDP. These analyses are referred to as WIPP analyses and the samples on which they are performed are referred to as WIPP samples for the balance of this document

  10. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    1999-09-01

    action as a preparation for future contingencies. Early investments stimulating technological learning prove beneficial in terms of both lower costs and emissions in the long run. On the other hand, when the learning rates of the technologies are uncertain, a more prudent intermediate path of installations is followed, but technological learning in emerging technologies continues to be an important hedging mechanism to prepare for future actions. Increasing returns associated to the effects of learning and uncertainty emerge as core mechanisms of the technological change process. The results provide important policy insights: Stimulation of technological learning of emerging, promising energy technologies, by R and D, demonstration projects and deployment in niche markets, appears as the optimal strategy to achieve the long term transition towards more productive and clean energy systems. (author)

  11. Technological Learning in Energy Models: Experience and Scenario Analysis with MARKAL and the ERIS Model Prototype

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreto, L.; Kypreos, S.

    1999-09-01

    action as a preparation for future contingencies. Early investments stimulating technological learning prove beneficial in terms of both lower costs and emissions in the long run. On the other hand, when the learning rates of the technologies are uncertain, a more prudent intermediate path of installations is followed, but technological learning in emerging technologies continues to be an important hedging mechanism to prepare for future actions. Increasing returns associated to the effects of learning and uncertainty emerge as core mechanisms of the technological change process. The results provide important policy insights: Stimulation of technological learning of emerging, promising energy technologies, by R and D, demonstration projects and deployment in niche markets, appears as the optimal strategy to achieve the long term transition towards more productive and clean energy systems. (author)

  12. Hawaii Energy Strategy Project 2: Fossil Energy Review. Task IV. Scenario development and analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamaguchi, N.D.; Breazeale, K. [ed.

    1993-12-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy (HES) Program is a seven-project effort led by the State of Hawaii Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT) to investigate a wide spectrum of Hawaii energy issues. The East-West Center`s Program on Resources: Energy and Minerals, has been assigned HES Project 2, Fossil Energy Review, which focuses on fossil energy use in Hawaii and the greater regional and global markets. HES Project 2 has four parts: Task I (World and Regional Fossil Energy Dynamics) covers petroleum, natural gas, and coal in global and regional contexts, along with a discussion of energy and the environment. Task II (Fossil Energy in Hawaii) focuses more closely on fossil energy use in Hawaii: current utilization and trends, the structure of imports, possible future sources of supply, fuel substitutability, and energy security. Task III`s emphasis is Greenfield Options; that is, fossil energy sources not yet used in Hawaii. This task is divided into two sections: first, an in-depth {open_quotes}Assessment of Coal Technology Options and Implications for the State of Hawaii,{close_quotes} along with a spreadsheet analysis model, which was subcontracted to the Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory; and second, a chapter on liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the Asia-Pacific market and the issues surrounding possible introduction of LNG into the Hawaii market.

  13. Spent fuel acceptance scenarios devoted to shutdown reactors: A preliminary analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, T.W.; Plummer, A.M.; Dippold, D.G.; Short, S.M.

    1989-10-01

    Spent fuel acceptance schedules and the allocation of federal acceptance capacity among commercial nuclear power reactors have important operational and cost consequences for reactor operators. Alternative allocation schemes were investigated to some extent in DOE's MRS Systems Study. The current study supplements these analyses for a class of acceptance schemes in which the acceptance capacity of the federal radioactive waste management system is allocated principally to shutdown commercial power reactors, and extends the scope of analysis to include considerations of at-reactor cask loading rates. The operational consequences of these schemes for power reactors, as measured in terms of quantity of spent fuel storage requirement above storage pool capacities and number of years of pool operations after last discharge, are estimated, as are the associated utility costs. This study does not attempt to examine the inter-utility equity considerations involved in departures from the current oldest-fuel-first (OFF) allocation rule as specified in the ''Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste.'' In the sense that the alternative allocations are more economically efficient than OFF, however, they approximate the allocations that could result from free exchange of acceptance rights among utilities. Such a process would result in the preservation of inter-utility equity. 13 refs., 9 figs., 9 tabs

  14. Dynamic modeling and analysis of alternative fuel cycle scenarios in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Choi, Hang Bok

    2007-01-01

    The Korean nuclear fuel cycle was modeled by the dynamic analysis method, which was applied to the once-through and alternative fuel cycles. First, the once-through fuel cycle was analyzed based on the Korean nuclear power plant construction plan up to 2015 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate of zero after 2015. Second, alternative fuel cycles including the direct use of spent pressurized water reactor fuel in Canada deuterium reactors (DUPIC), a sodium-cooled fast reactor and an accelerator driven system were assessed and the results were compared with those of the once-through fuel cycle. The once-through fuel cycle calculation showed that the nuclear power demand would be 25 GWe and the amount of the spent fuel will be ∼65000 tons by 2100. The alternative fuel cycle analyses showed that the spent fuel inventory could be reduced by more than 30% and 90% through the DUPIC and fast reactor fuel cycles, respectively, when compared with the once-through fuel cycle. The results of this study indicate that both spent fuel and uranium resources can be effectively managed if alternative reactor systems are timely implemented along with the existing reactors

  15. Data analysis on work activities in dismantling of Japan Power Demonstration Reactor (JPDR). Contract research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiraishi, Kunio; Sukegawa, Takenori; Yanagihara, Satoshi

    1998-03-01

    The safe dismantling of a retired nuclear power plant was demonstrated by completion of dismantling activities for the Japan Power Demonstration Reactor (JPDR), March, 1996, which had been conducted since 1986. This project was a flag ship project for dismantling of nuclear power plants in Japan, aiming at demonstrating an applicability of developed dismantling techniques in actual dismantling work, developing database on work activities as well as dismantling of components and structures. Various data on dismantling activities were therefore systematically collected and these were accumulated on computer files to build the decommissioning database; dismantling activities were characterized by analyzing the data. The data analysis resulted in producing general forms such as unit activity factors, for example, manpower need per unit weight of component to be dismantled, and simple arithmetic forms for forecasting of project management data to be applied to planning another dismantling project through the evaluation for general use of the analyzed data. The results of data analysis could be usefully applied to planning of future decommissioning of commercial nuclear power plants in Japan. This report describes the data collection and analysis on the JPDR dismantling activities. (author)

  16. Analysis of fuel cycle strategies and U.S. transition scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wigeland, Roald; Taiwo, Temitope A.

    2016-10-17

    The nuclear fuel cycle Evaluation and Screening (E&S) study that was completed in October 2014 [1] enabled the identification of four fuel cycle groups that are considered most promising based on a set of nine evaluation criteria: (a) six benefit criteria of Nuclear Waste Management, Proliferation Risk, Nuclear Material Security Risk, Safety, Environmental Impact, Resource Utilization, and (b) three challenge criteria of Development and Deployment Risk, Institutional Issues, Financial Risk and Economics. The E&S study was conducted at a level of analysis that is "technology- neutral," that is, without consideration of specific technologies, but using the fundamental physics characteristics of each part of the fuel cycle. The study focused on the fuel cycle performance benefits at the fuel cycle equilibrium state, with only limited consideration of transition and deployment impacts. Common characteristics of the four most promising fuel cycle options include continuous recycle of all U/Pu or U/TRU, the use of fast-spectrum reactors, and no use of uranium enrichment once fuel cycle equilibrium has been established. The high-level wastes are mainly from processing of irradiated fuel, and there would be no disposal of any spent fuel. Building on the findings of the E&S study, additional studies have been conducted in the last two years following the information exchange meeting, the 13th IEMPT, which was held in Seoul, the Republic of Korea in 2014. Insights are presented from the recent studies on the benefits and challenges of recycling minor actinides, and transition considerations to some of the most promising fuel cycle options.

  17. Water Resources Sustainability in Northwest Mexico: Analysis of Regional Infrastructure Plans under Historical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, D.; Robles-Morua, A.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2012-12-01

    The arid state of Sonora, Mexico, has embarked on a large water infrastructure project to provide additional water supply and improved sanitation to the growing capital of Hermosillo. The main component of the Sonora SI project involves an interbasin transfer from rural to urban water users that has generated conflicts over water among different social sectors. Through interactions with regional stakeholders from agricultural and water management agencies, we ascertained the need for a long-term assessment of the water resources of one of the system components, the Sonora River Basin (SRB). A semi-distributed, daily watershed model that includes current and proposed reservoir infrastructure was applied to the SRB. This simulation framework allowed us to explore alternative scenarios of water supply from the SRB to Hermosillo under historical (1980-2010) and future (2031-2040) periods that include the impact of climate change. We compared three precipitation forcing scenarios for the historical period: (1) a network of ground observations from Mexican water agencies; (2) gridded fields from the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) at 12 km resolution; and (3) gridded fields from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 10 km resolution. These were compared to daily historical observations at two stream gauging stations and two reservoirs to generate confidence in the simulation tools. We then tested the impact of climate change through the use of the A2 emissions scenario and HadCM3 boundary forcing on the WRF simulations of a future period. Our analysis is focused on the combined impact of existing and proposed reservoir infrastructure at two new sites on the water supply management in the SRB under historical and future climate conditions. We also explore the impact of climate variability and change on the bimodal precipitation pattern from winter frontal storms and the summertime North American monsoon and its consequences on water

  18. Analysis of Evolutionarily Independent Protein-RNA Complexes Yields a Criterion to Evaluate the Relevance of Prebiotic Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanco, Celia; Bayas, Marco; Yan, Fu; Chen, Irene A

    2018-02-19

    A central difficulty facing study of the origin of life on Earth is evaluating the relevance of different proposed prebiotic scenarios. Perhaps the most established feature of the origin of life was the progression through an RNA World, a prebiotic stage dominated by functional RNA. We use the appearance of proteins in the RNA World to understand the prebiotic milieu and develop a criterion to evaluate proposed synthetic scenarios. Current consensus suggests that the earliest amino acids of the genetic code were anionic or small hydrophobic or polar amino acids. However, the ability to interact with the RNA World would have been a crucial feature of early proteins. To determine which amino acids would be important for the RNA World, we analyze non-biological protein-aptamer complexes in which the RNA or DNA is the result of in vitro evolution. This approach avoids confounding effects of biological context and evolutionary history. We use bioinformatic analysis and molecular dynamics simulations to characterize these complexes. We find that positively charged and aromatic amino acids are over-represented whereas small hydrophobic amino acids are under-represented. Binding enthalpy is found to be primarily electrostatic, with positively charged amino acids contributing cooperatively to binding enthalpy. Arginine dominates all modes of interaction at the interface. These results suggest that proposed prebiotic syntheses must be compatible with cationic amino acids, particularly arginine or a biophysically similar amino acid, in order to be relevant to the invention of protein by the RNA World. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Life-cycle analysis of energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and water consumption in the 2016 MYPP algal biofuel scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, Edward [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Pegallapati, Ambica K. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Davis, Ryan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Markham, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Coleman, Andre [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Sue [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wigmosta, Mark S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhu, Yunhua [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-06-16

    The Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) Multi-year Program Plan (MYPP) describes the bioenergy objectives pursued by BETO, the strategies for achieving those objectives, the current state of technology (SOT), and a number of design cases that explore cost and operational performance required to advance the SOT towards middle and long term goals (MYPP, 2016). Two options for converting algae to biofuel intermediates were considered in the MYPP, namely algal biofuel production via lipid extraction and algal biofuel production by thermal processing. The first option, lipid extraction, is represented by the Combined Algae Processing (CAP) pathway in which algae are hydrolyzed in a weak acid pretreatment step. The treated slurry is fermented for ethanol production from sugars. The fermentation stillage contains most of the lipids from the original biomass, which are recovered through wet solvent extraction. The process residuals after lipid extraction, which contain much of the original mass of amino acids and proteins, are directed to anaerobic digestion (AD) for biogas production and recycle of N and P nutrients. The second option, thermal processing, comprises direct hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) of the wet biomass, separation of aqueous, gas, and oil phases, and treatment of the aqueous phase with catalytic hydrothermal gasification (CHG) to produce biogas and to recover N and P nutrients. The present report describes a life cycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the CAP and HTL options for the three scenarios just described. Water use is also reported. Water use during algal biofuel production comes from evaporation during cultivation, discharge to bleed streams to control pond salinity (“blowdown”), and from use during preprocessing and upgrading. For scenarios considered to date, most water use was from evaporation and, secondarily, from bleed streams. Other use was relatively small at the level of

  20. Performance Analysis of Scheduling Schemes for Femto to Macro Interference Coordination in LTE-Femtocell Deployment Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafina Destiarti Ainul

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Deploying femtocells that have low power level in LTE with small coverage area is an alternative solution for mobile operators to improve indoors network coverage area as well as system capacity. However deploying femtocells (HeNB that were used co-channel frequency, can be brought about interference problem to the Macro BTS (eNB. Close Subscriber Group (CSG of HeNB allows only User equipment (UE to access HeNB. HeNB is the source of interference for UE who cannot access it. Therefore it is necessary for interference coordination methods among the HeNB and eNB. The methods are ICIC (Intercell Interference Coordination and eICIC (enhanced Intercell Interference Coordination.  This paper proposed performance analysis of scheduling schemes for Femto to macro interference coordination that allocated resource in the frequency and time domain using LTE-Femtocell suburban and urban deployment scenario. Simulation result using ICIC methods can improve SINR performance 15.77 % in urban and 28.66 % in suburban, throughput performance 10.11 % in urban and 21.05 % in suburban. eICIC methods can improve SINR performance 17.44 % in urban and 31.14 % in suburban, throughput performance 19.83% in urban and 44.39 % in suburban.The result prove using eICIC method in time domain resource have better performance than using ICIC method in frequency resource. However using eICIC method in suburban deployment scenariocan increase the performance of SINR and throughput more effective than using eICIC method in urban deployment scenario.

  1. Safety analysis report for packaging (onsite) transuranic performance demonstration program sample packaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mccoy, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    The Transuranic Performance Demonstration Program (TPDP) sample packaging is used to transport highway route controlled quantities of weapons grade (WG) plutonium samples from the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) to the Waste Receiving and Processing (WRAP) facility and back. The purpose of these shipments is to test the nondestructive assay equipment in the WRAP facility as part of the Nondestructive Waste Assay PDP. The PDP is part of the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) National TRU Program managed by the U. S. Department of Energy, Carlsbad Area Office, Carlsbad, New Mexico. Details of this program are found in CAO-94-1045, Performance Demonstration Program Plan for Nondestructive Assay for the TRU Waste Characterization Program (CAO 1994); INEL-96/0129, Design of Benign Matrix Drums for the Non-Destructive Assay Performance Demonstration Program for the National TRU Program (INEL 1996a); and INEL-96/0245, Design of Phase 1 Radioactive Working Reference Materials for the Nondestructive Assay Performance Demonstration Program for the National TRU Program (INEL 1996b). Other program documentation is maintained by the national TRU program and each DOE site participating in the program. This safety analysis report for packaging (SARP) provides the analyses and evaluations necessary to demonstrate that the TRU PDP sample packaging meets the onsite transportation safety requirements of WHC-CM-2-14, Hazardous Material Packaging and Shipping, for an onsite Transportation Hazard Indicator (THI) 2 packaging. This SARP, however, does not include evaluation of any operations within the PFP or WRAP facilities, including handling, maintenance, storage, or operating requirements, except as they apply directly to transportation between the gate of PFP and the gate of the WRAP facility. All other activities are subject to the requirements of the facility safety analysis reports (FSAR) of the PFP or WRAP facility and requirements of the PDP

  2. Demonstration of a software design and statistical analysis methodology with application to patient outcomes data sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, Charles; Conners, Steve; Warren, Christopher; Miller, Robert; Court, Laurence; Popple, Richard

    2013-11-01

    With emergence of clinical outcomes databases as tools utilized routinely within institutions, comes need for software tools to support automated statistical analysis of these large data sets and intrainstitutional exchange from independent federated databases to support data pooling. In this paper, the authors present a design approach and analysis methodology that addresses both issues. A software application was constructed to automate analysis of patient outcomes data using a wide range of statistical metrics, by combining use of C#.Net and R code. The accuracy and speed of the code was evaluated using benchmark data sets. The approach provides data needed to evaluate combinations of statistical measurements for ability to identify patterns of interest in the data. Through application of the tools to a benchmark data set for dose-response threshold and to SBRT lung data sets, an algorithm was developed that uses receiver operator characteristic curves to identify a threshold value and combines use of contingency tables, Fisher exact tests, Welch t-tests, and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests to filter the large data set to identify values demonstrating dose-response. Kullback-Leibler divergences were used to provide additional confirmation. The work demonstrates the viability of the design approach and the software tool for analysis of large data sets.

  3. Feasibility and demonstration of a cloud-based RIID analysis system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Michael C.; Hertz, Kristin L.; Johnson, William C.; Sword, Eric D.; Younkin, James R.; Sadler, Lorraine E.

    2015-06-01

    A significant limitation in the operational utility of handheld and backpack radioisotope identifiers (RIIDs) is the inability of their onboard algorithms to accurately and reliably identify the isotopic sources of the measured gamma-ray energy spectrum. A possible solution is to move the spectral analysis computations to an external device, the cloud, where significantly greater capabilities are available. The implementation and demonstration of a prototype cloud-based RIID analysis system have shown this type of system to be feasible with currently available communication and computational technology. A system study has shown that the potential user community could derive significant benefits from an appropriately implemented cloud-based analysis system and has identified the design and operational characteristics required by the users and stakeholders for such a system. A general description of the hardware and software necessary to implement reliable cloud-based analysis, the value of the cloud expressed by the user community, and the aspects of the cloud implemented in the demonstrations are discussed.

  4. Scenarios of the long term evolution of the energy sector. Energy needs, choices and possibilities: Shell's scenarios for 2050. The long-term evolution of the energy sector. A vision of the 2020-2050 energy mix. Phase dynamics analysis of energy demand scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.; Appert, O; Bauquis, P.R.; Alba, P.

    2002-01-01

    This dossier comprises 4 articles dealing with energy scenarios. The first article presents the prospective studies carried out by the Shell group which lead to the construction of two scenarios entitled: 'dynamics as usual' and 'the spirit of the coming age'. Both scenarios foresee an explosion of the primary energy demand for the coming next 50 years (multiplied by a factor of 2 to 2.8 with respect to 2000) with a decline of hydrocarbons for the benefit of gas and renewable energies (including bio-fuels), while nuclear and coal will still represent a quarter of our needs. However, the main uncertainty remains the demographic expansion during the next 50 years. The second article presents the energy models and projections of the IEA for the long-term evolution of the energy sector (petroleum, gas, coal, renewable energy and uranium resources) and the main uncertainties of these projections (economic growth, environmental policies, technological evolutions). The third article presents the agreements and divergences of the author's forecasts for 2050 with Shell's scenarios, while the last article makes a comparison between the IEA, IIASA-CME and Shell scenarios using a phase dynamics analysis. (J.S.)

  5. Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M.; Massmann, J.W.; Freeze, R.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

    1993-01-01

    This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site

  6. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  7. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  8. Tank 241-AX-104 upper vadose zone cone penetrometer demonstration sampling and analysis plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FIELD, J.G.

    1999-01-01

    This sampling and analysis plan (SAP) is the primary document describing field and laboratory activities and requirements for the tank 241-AX-104 upper vadose zone cone penetrometer (CP) demonstration. It is written in accordance with Hanford Tank Initiative Tank 241-AX-104 Upper Vadose Zone Demonstration Data Quality Objective (Banning 1999). This technology demonstration, to be conducted at tank 241-AX-104, is being performed by the Hanford Tanks Initiative (HTI) Project as a part of Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Retrieval Program (EM-30) and the Office of Science and Technology (EM-50) Tanks Focus Area. Sample results obtained as part of this demonstration will provide additional information for subsequent revisions to the Retrieval Performance Evaluation (RPE) report (Jacobs 1998). The RPE Report is the result of an evaluation of a single tank farm (AX Tank Farm) used as the basis for demonstrating a methodology for developing the data and analyses necessary to support making tank waste retrieval decisions within the context of tank farm closure requirements. The RPE includes a study of vadose zone contaminant transport mechanisms, including analysis of projected tank leak characteristics, hydrogeologic characteristics of tank farm soils, and the observed distribution of contaminants in the vadose zone in the tank farms. With limited characterization information available, large uncertainties exist as to the nature and extent of contaminants that may exist in the upper vadose zone in the AX Tank Farm. Traditionally, data has been collected from soils in the vadose zone through the installation of boreholes and wells. Soil samples are collected as the bore hole is advanced and samples are screened on site and/or sent to a laboratory for analysis. Some in-situ geophysical methods of contaminant analysis can be used to evaluate radionuclide levels in the soils adjacent to an existing borehole. However, geophysical methods require compensation for well

  9. A preliminary comprehensive dynamic analysis of the typical FaCT scenarios with JSFR and related fuel cycle facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiotani, Hiroki; Ono, Kiyoshi; Ogawa, Takashi; Koma, Yoshikazu; Kawaguchi, Koichi

    2009-01-01

    A preliminary comprehensive dynamic analysis of the typical Fast Reactor (FR) deployment scenarios with JSFR and related fuel cycle facilities developed in 'FaCT: Fast Reactor Cycle Technology Development Project' was conducted. The scenarios were evaluated from some of the development targets and design goals in the FaCT project. The isotopic compositions of the nuclear fuels and wastes and the quantities of radioactive wastes (HLWs, LLWs) from Japanese nuclear fuel cycle facilities were calculated to grasp the sustainability characteristics. Regarding the long-term economics, the total cash out-flows and the average electricity generation costs to 22nd century were calculated. Cash out-flow peaks and waste generation peaks were found from 2030s to 2050s, 2090s to 2110s, and 2150s to 2170s because of the cost and wastes from decommissioning of the nuclear power plants and reprocessing plants for LWR spent fuel and the construction costs of them. Firstly, the major results of the reference case are explained combined with introduction of the function of the dynamic analysis tool (Supply Chain Management Code). The analysis is related to sustainability and economics in FaCT project development targets since they are important in the sustainability and economics evaluation. Secondly, the comparisons between the reference case and the three other option cases with their own issues of choice are explained. Those options are different breeding ratios, dual-purpose reprocessing plant, and Am-Cm recycling. As the tentative conclusions of the analyses are: the exploration of the optimal breeding ratio between B.R. =1.1 and 1.2 at the start up stage of FR is regarded as reasonable; the cost reduction of the dual purpose reprocessing plant resulted from the facility integration was confirmed though the cost estimation of the facility should be modified, it is a little bit too hasty to decide the manner of MA recycling because many issues to be considered are left at present

  10. Recurrence quantification analysis of extremes of maximum and minimum temperature patterns for different climate scenarios in the Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.

    2018-06-01

    A methodological framework based on nonlinear recurrence analysis is proposed to examine the historical data evolution of extremes of maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature patterns over time under different climate scenarios. The methodology is based on both historical data and atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) produced climate scenarios for the periods 1961-2000 and 2061-2100 which correspond to 1 × CO2 and 2 × CO2 scenarios. Historical data were derived from the actual daily observations coupled with atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs). The dynamics of the temperature was reconstructed in the phase-space from the time series of temperatures. The statistically comparing different temperature patterns were based on some discriminating statistics obtained by the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). Moreover, the bootstrap method of Schinkel et al. (2009) was adopted to calculate the confidence bounds of RQA parameters based on a structural preserving resampling. The overall methodology was implemented to the mountainous Mesochora catchment in Central-Western Greece. The results reveal substantial similarities between the historical maximum and minimum daily mean areal temperature statistical patterns and their confidence bounds, as well as the maximum and minimum temperature patterns in evolution under the 2 × CO2 scenario. A significant variability and non-stationary behaviour characterizes all climate series analyzed. Fundamental differences are produced from the historical and maximum 1 × CO2 scenarios, the maximum 1 × CO2 and minimum 1 × CO2 scenarios, as well as the confidence bounds for the two CO2 scenarios. The 2 × CO2 scenario reflects the strongest shifts in intensity, duration and frequency in temperature patterns. Such transitions can help the scientists and policy makers to understand the effects of extreme temperature changes on water resources, economic development, and health of ecosystems and hence to proceed to

  11. Do Surgeons React?: A Retrospective Analysis of Surgeons' Response to Harassment of a Colleague During Simulated Operating Theatre Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gostlow, Hannah; Vega, Camila Vega; Marlow, Nicholas; Babidge, Wendy; Maddern, Guy

    2017-07-24

    To assess and report on surgeons' ability to identify and manage incidences of harassment. The Royal Australasian College of Surgeons is committed to driving out discrimination, bullying, harassment, and sexual harassment from surgical training and practice, through changing the culture of the workplace. To eradicate these behaviors, it is first critical to understand how the current workforce responds to these actions. A retrospective analysis of video data of an operating theatre simulation was conducted to identify how surgeons, from a range of experience levels, react to instances of harassment. Thematic analysis was used to categorize types of harassment and participant response characteristics. The frequency of these responses was assessed and reported. The type of participant response depended on the nature of harassment being perpetuated and the seniority of the participant. In the 50 instances of scripted harassment, active responses were enacted 52% of the time, acknowledgment responses 16%, and no response enacted in 30%. One senior surgeon also perpetuated the harassment (2%). Trainees were more likely to respond actively compared with consultants. It is apparent that trainees are more aware of instances of harassment, and were more likely to intervene during the simulated scenario. However, a large proportion of harassment was unchallenged. The hierarchical nature of surgical education and the surgical workforce in general needs to enable a culture in which the responsibility to intervene is allowed and respected. Simulation-based education programs could be developed to train in the recognition and intervention of discrimination, bullying, harassment and sexual harassment.

  12. Performance Analysis of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA Protocol for WBAN Medical Scenario through DTMC Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vivek; Gupta, Bharat

    2016-12-01

    The newly drafted IEEE 802.15.6 standard for Wireless Body Area Networks (WBAN) has been concentrating on a numerous medical and non-medical applications. Such short range wireless communication standard offers ultra-low power consumption with variable data rates from few Kbps to Mbps in, on or around the proximity of the human body. In this paper, the performance analysis of carrier sense multiple access with collision avoidance (CSMA/CA) scheme based on IEEE 802.15.6 standard in terms of throughput, reliability, clear channel assessment (CCA) failure probability, packet drop probability, and end-to-end delay has been presented. We have developed a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) to significantly evaluate the performances of IEEE 802.15.6 CSMA/CA under non-ideal channel condition having saturated traffic condition including node wait time and service time. We also visualize that, as soon as the payload length increases the CCA failure probability increases, which results in lower node's reliability. Also, we have calculated the end-to-end delay in order to prioritize the node wait time cause by backoff and retransmission. The user priority (UP) wise DTMC analysis has been performed to show the importance of the standard especially for medical scenario.

  13. Analysis of the scenarios with the participation of nuclear energy in the Mexican electric sector using the Decades program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sosa P, E.; Trejo G, M.G.; Martin del Campo M, C.; Francois L, J.L.

    2003-01-01

    At the moment the energetic planning demands a technical, economic and environmental analysis of the different options of electric generation to be able to find the best solution of supply and energy readiness, already that it is indispensable for the development of the productive activities and to assure the competitiveness of the economy of a country. The expansion analyses of the Mexican Electric Sector its are carried out daily in the Federal Commission of Electricity (CFE) with some programs, among them Decades. However, up to where we have information only there is been considering a type of reactor like candidate being that exist several options that show promising characteristics for what its should be considered in the analyses. With this work its got rich the Decades database of the nuclear power stations that can be used as candidates to consider in the variable system of the expansion studies. Its have been carried out some comparative analysis between two types of nuclear centrals that at the moment offer in the market, specifically the AP600 type PWR reactor of 600 M We and the one BWR with capacity of 1300 M We. Later on it is sought to analyze two or three scenarios of the system of electric generation in Mexico to a term of twenty or twenty-five years. (Author)

  14. Preliminary analysis of West Valley Waste Removal System equipment development and mock demonstration facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janicek, G.P.

    1981-06-01

    This report defines seven areas requiring further investigation to develop and demonstrate a safe and viable West Valley Waste Removal System. These areas of endeavor are discussed in terms of their minimum facility requirements. It is concluded that utilizing separated specific facilities at different points in time is of a greater advantage than an exact duplication of the West Valley tanks. Savannah River Plant's full-scale, full-circle and half-circle tanks, and their twelfth scale model tank would all be useful to varying degrees but would require modifications. Hanford's proposed full-size mock tank would be useful, but is not seriously considered because its construction may not coincide with West Valley needs. Costs of modifying existing facilities and/or constructing new facilities are assessed in terms of their benefit to the equipment development and mock demonstration. Six facilities were identified for further analysis which would benefit development of waste removal equipment

  15. Design, demonstration and analysis of a modified wavelength-correlating receiver for incoherent OCDMA system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Heng; Qiu, Kun; Wang, Leyang

    2011-03-28

    A novel wavelength-correlating receiver for incoherent Optical Code Division Multiple Access (OCDMA) system is proposed and demonstrated in this paper. Enabled by the wavelength conversion based scheme, the proposed receiver can support various code types including one-dimensional optical codes and time-spreading/wavelength-hopping two dimensional codes. Also, a synchronous detection scheme with time-to- wavelength based code acquisition is proposed, by which code acquisition time can be substantially reduced. Moreover, a novel data-validation methodology based on all-optical pulse-width monitoring is introduced for the wavelength-correlating receiver. Experimental demonstration of the new proposed receiver is presented and low bit error rate data-receiving is achieved without optical hard limiting and electronic power thresholding. For the first time, a detailed theoretical performance analysis specialized for the wavelength-correlating receiver is presented. Numerical results show that the overall performance of the proposed receiver prevails over conventional OCDMA receivers.

  16. Policy Analysis Screening System (PASS) demonstration: sample queries and terminal instructions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1979-10-16

    This document contains the input and output for the Policy Analysis Screening System (PASS) demonstration. This demonstration is stored on a portable disk at the Environmental Impacts Division. Sample queries presented here include: (1) how to use PASS; (2) estimated 1995 energy consumption from Mid-Range Energy-Forecasting System (MEFS) data base; (3) pollution projections from Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) data base; (4) diesel auto regulations; (5) diesel auto health effects; (6) oil shale health and safety measures; (7) water pollution effects of SRC; (8) acid rainfall from Energy Environmental Statistics (EES) data base; 1990 EIA electric generation by fuel type; sulfate concentrations by Federal region; forecast of 1995 SO/sub 2/ emissions in Region III; and estimated electrical generating capacity in California to 1990. The file name for each query is included.

  17. Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin

    2017-01-01

    Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event

  18. Advanced Reactor Passive System Reliability Demonstration Analysis for an External Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Bucknor

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general for the postulated transient event.

  19. Advanced reactor passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bucknor, Matthew; Grabaskas, David; Brunett, Acacia J.; Grelle, Austin [Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne (United States)

    2017-03-15

    Many advanced reactor designs rely on passive systems to fulfill safety functions during accident sequences. These systems depend heavily on boundary conditions to induce a motive force, meaning the system can fail to operate as intended because of deviations in boundary conditions, rather than as the result of physical failures. Furthermore, passive systems may operate in intermediate or degraded modes. These factors make passive system operation difficult to characterize within a traditional probabilistic framework that only recognizes discrete operating modes and does not allow for the explicit consideration of time-dependent boundary conditions. Argonne National Laboratory has been examining various methodologies for assessing passive system reliability within a probabilistic risk assessment for a station blackout event at an advanced small modular reactor. This paper provides an overview of a passive system reliability demonstration analysis for an external event. Considering an earthquake with the possibility of site flooding, the analysis focuses on the behavior of the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System following potential physical damage and system flooding. The assessment approach seeks to combine mechanistic and simulation-based methods to leverage the benefits of the simulation-based approach without the need to substantially deviate from conventional probabilistic risk assessment techniques. Although this study is presented as only an example analysis, the results appear to demonstrate a high level of reliability of the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (and the reactor system in general) for the postulated transient event.

  20. Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Labor Market Exposure and Sensitivity Analysis to a Magnitude 7.8 Earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.; Wein, Anne M.

    2008-01-01

    The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards (Jones and others, 2007). In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 (M7.8) earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report contains an exposure and sensitivity analysis of economic Super Sectors in terms of labor and employment statistics. Exposure is measured as the absolute counts of labor market variables anticipated to experience each level of Instrumental Intensity (a proxy measure of damage). Sensitivity is the percentage of the exposure of each Super Sector to each Instrumental Intensity level. The analysis concerns the direct effect of the scenario earthquake on economic sectors and provides a baseline for the indirect and interactive analysis of an input-output model of the regional economy. The analysis is inspired by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report that analyzed the labor market losses (exposure) of a M6.9 earthquake on the Hayward fault by overlaying geocoded labor market data on Instrumental Intensity values. The method used here is influenced by the ZIP-code-level data provided by the California Employment Development Department (CA EDD), which requires the assignment of Instrumental Intensities to ZIP codes. The ZIP-code-level labor market data includes the number of business establishments, employees, and quarterly payroll categorized by the North American Industry Classification System. According to the analysis results, nearly 225,000 business

  1. Performance Demonstration Program Plan for RCRA Constituent Analysis of Solidified Wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    The Performance Demonstration Program (PDP) for Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) constituents distributes test samples for analysis of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs), and metals in solid matrices. Each distribution of test samples is termed a PDP cycle. These evaluation cycles provide an objective measure of the reliability of measurements performed for transuranic (TRU) waste characterization. The primary documents governing the conduct of the PDP are the Quality Assurance Program Document (QAPD; DOE/CBFO-94-1012) and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) Waste Analysis Plan (WAP) contained in the Hazardous Waste Facility Permit (NM4890139088-TSDF) issued by the New Mexico Environment Department. The WAP requires participation in the PDP; the PDP must comply with the QAPD and the WAP. This plan implements the general requirements of the QAPD and the applicable requirements of the WAP for the RCRA PDP. Participating laboratories demonstrate acceptable performance by successfully analyzing single-blind performance evaluation samples (subsequently referred to as PDP samples) according to the criteria established in this plan. PDP samples are used as an independent means to assess laboratory performance regarding compliance with the WAP quality assurance objectives (QAOs). The concentrations of analytes in the PDP samples address levels of regulatory concern and encompass the range of concentrations anticipated in waste characterization samples. The WIPP requires analyses of homogeneous solid wastes to demonstrate compliance with regulatory requirements. These analyses must be performed by laboratories that demonstrate acceptable performance in this PDP. These analyses are referred to as WIPP analyses, and the samples on which they are performed are referred to as WIPP samples. Participating laboratories must analyze PDP samples using the same procedures used for WIPP samples.

  2. An economically reliable scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Mister Benjamin Dessus, director of the Ecotech programme at the Cnrs and author of the Noe scenario, describes his propositions for energy prospective, supported by an economic analysis. He advocates the energy diversification and the use of renewable energies. (N.C.). 1 ref., 1 tab

  3. AZ-101 Mixer Pump Demonstration and Tests Data Management Analysis Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DOUGLAS, D.G.

    2000-02-22

    This document provides a plan for the analysis of the data collected during the AZ-101 Mixer Pump Demonstration and Tests. This document was prepared after a review of the AZ-101 Mixer Pump Test Plan (Revision 4) [1] and other materials. The plan emphasizes a structured and well-ordered approach towards handling and examining the data. This plan presumes that the data will be collected and organized into a unified body of data, well annotated and bearing the date and time of each record. The analysis of this data will follow a methodical series of steps that are focused on well-defined objectives. Section 2 of this plan describes how the data analysis will proceed from the real-time monitoring of some of the key sensor data to the final analysis of the three-dimensional distribution of suspended solids. This section also identifies the various sensors or sensor systems and associates them with the various functions they serve during the test program. Section 3 provides an overview of the objectives of the AZ-101 test program and describes the data that will be analyzed to support that test. The objectives are: (1) to demonstrate that the mixer pumps can be operated within the operating requirements; (2) to demonstrate that the mixer pumps can mobilize the sludge in sufficient quantities to provide feed to the private contractor facility, and (3) to determine if the in-tank instrumentation is sufficient to monitor sludge mobilization and mixer pump operation. Section 3 also describes the interim analysis that organizes the data during the test, so the analysis can be more readily accomplished. Section 4 describes the spatial orientation of the various sensors in the tank. This section is useful in visualizing the relationship of the Sensors in terms of their location in the tank and how the data from these sensors may be related to the data from other sensors. Section 5 provides a summary of the various analyses that will be performed on the data during the test

  4. AZ-101 Mixer Pump Demonstration and Tests: Data Management (Analysis) Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DOUGLAS, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    This document provides a plan for the analysis of the data collected during the AZ-101 Mixer Pump Demonstration and Tests. This document was prepared after a review of the AZ-101 Mixer Pump Test Plan (Revision 4) [1] and other materials. The plan emphasizes a structured and well-ordered approach towards handling and examining the data. This plan presumes that the data will be collected and organized into a unified body of data, well annotated and bearing the date and time of each record. The analysis of this data will follow a methodical series of steps that are focused on well-defined objectives. Section 2 of this plan describes how the data analysis will proceed from the real-time monitoring of some of the key sensor data to the final analysis of the three-dimensional distribution of suspended solids. This section also identifies the various sensors or sensor systems and associates them with the various functions they serve during the test program. Section 3 provides an overview of the objectives of the AZ-101 test program and describes the data that will be analyzed to support that test. The objectives are: (1) to demonstrate that the mixer pumps can be operated within the operating requirements; (2) to demonstrate that the mixer pumps can mobilize the sludge in sufficient quantities to provide feed to the private contractor facility, and (3) to determine if the in-tank instrumentation is sufficient to monitor sludge mobilization and mixer pump operation. Section 3 also describes the interim analysis that organizes the data during the test, so the analysis can be more readily accomplished. Section 4 describes the spatial orientation of the various sensors in the tank. This section is useful in visualizing the relationship of the Sensors in terms of their location in the tank and how the data from these sensors may be related to the data from other sensors. Section 5 provides a summary of the various analyses that will be performed on the data during the test

  5. Bayesian analysis of heat pipe life test data for reliability demonstration testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartholomew, R.J.; Martz, H.F.

    1985-01-01

    The demonstration testing duration requirements to establish a quantitative measure of assurance of expected lifetime for heat pipes was determined. The heat pipes are candidate devices for transporting heat generated in a nuclear reactor core to thermoelectric converters for use as a space-based electric power plant. A Bayesian analysis technique is employed, utilizing a limited Delphi survey, and a geometric mean accelerated test criterion involving heat pipe power (P) and temperature (T). Resulting calculations indicate considerable test savings can be achieved by employing the method, but development testing to determine heat pipe failure mechanisms should not be circumvented

  6. Performance-Based Technology Selection Filter description report. INEL Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration System Analysis project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Brien, M.C.; Morrison, J.L.; Morneau, R.A.; Rudin, M.J.; Richardson, J.G.

    1992-05-01

    A formal methodology has been developed for identifying technology gaps and assessing innovative or postulated technologies for inclusion in proposed Buried Waste Integrated Demonstration (BWID) remediation systems. Called the Performance-Based Technology Selection Filter, the methodology provides a formalized selection process where technologies and systems are rated and assessments made based on performance measures, and regulatory and technical requirements. The results are auditable, and can be validated with field data. This analysis methodology will be applied to the remedial action of transuranic contaminated waste pits and trenches buried at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL).

  7. The 'Europe, Territories' project of energy transition(s) in Europe: comparative analysis of scenarios, of their territorial application, and of their social-economic impacts. Phase 1. Analysis of national scenarios in Germany, Austria, Denmark and Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chatelin, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon; Letz, Thomas; Rialhe, Anne

    2016-01-01

    This report reports an identification and an analysis of different scenarios of energy transition elaborated in different European countries (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland), and is a required preliminary step for the 'Europe-Territories' project implemented by the NegaWatt association. The report justifies the selection of these countries and, for each country, the selection of a specific scenario as several scenarios were available for each country. It discusses available data, identifies missing data and reports the search for additional data. Then, it reports the comparison between noticed trajectories, European objectives and retained scenarios. More precisely, and for each of the four countries and for France, it analyses the share of renewable energies in final energy consumption, and the evolution of final energy consumption. For each national scenario, it presents various aspects which can be, depending on the country, framework and method, major focuses, implementation, results, economic benefits, scenario assessment, energy production and demand. It proposes a comparative analysis of the studied national scenarios in terms of objectives and methodology, of energy demand and of energy production. It finally analyses trajectories on the short and on the long term. Some more detailed presentations of national scenarios are given in appendix

  8. Improving Your Exploratory Factor Analysis for Ordinal Data: A Demonstration Using FACTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Baglin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Exploratory factor analysis (EFA methods are used extensively in the field of assessment and evaluation. Due to EFA's widespread use, common methods and practices have come under close scrutiny. A substantial body of literature has been compiled highlighting problems with many of the methods and practices used in EFA, and, in response, many guidelines have been proposed with the aim to improve application. Unfortunately, implementing recommended EFA practices has been restricted by the range of options available in commercial statistical packages and, perhaps, due to an absence of clear, practical - how-to' demonstrations. Consequently, this article describes the application of methods recommended to get the most out of your EFA. The article focuses on dealing with the common situation of analysing ordinal data as derived from Likert-type scales. These methods are demonstrated using the free, stand-alone, easy-to-use and powerful EFA package FACTOR (http://psico.fcep.urv.es/utilitats/factor/, Lorenzo-Seva & Ferrando, 2006. The demonstration applies the recommended techniques using an accompanying dataset, based on the Big 5 personality test. The outcomes obtained by the EFA using the recommended procedures through FACTOR are compared to the default techniques currently available in SPSS.

  9. Analysis of Return and Forward Links from STARS' Flight Demonstration 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gering, James A.

    2003-01-01

    Space-based Telemetry And Range Safety (STARS) is a Kennedy Space Center (KSC) led proof-of-concept demonstration, which utilizes NASA's space network of Tracking and Data Relay Satellites (TDRS) as a pathway for launch and mission related information streams. Flight Demonstration 1 concluded on July 15,2003 with the seventh flight of a Low Power Transmitter (LPT) a Command and Data Handler (C&DH), a twelve channel GPS receiver and associated power supplies and amplifiers. The equipment flew on NASA's F-I5 aircraft at the Dryden Flight Research Center located at Edwards Air Force Base in California. During this NASA-ASEE Faculty Fellowship, the author participated in the collection and analysis of data from the seven flights comprising Flight Demonstration 1. Specifically, the author examined the forward and return links bit energy E(sub B) (in Watt-seconds) divided by the ambient radio frequency noise N(sub 0) (in Watts / Hertz). E(sub b)/N(sub 0) is commonly thought of as a signal-to-noise parameter, which characterizes a particular received radio frequency (RF) link. Outputs from the data analysis include the construction of time lines for all flights, production of graphs of range safety values for all seven flights, histograms of range safety E(sub b)/N(sub 0) values in five dB increments, calculation of associated averages and standard deviations, production of graphs of range user E(sub b)/N(sub 0) values for the all flights, production of graphs of AGC's and E(sub b)/N(sub 0) estimates for flight 1, recorded onboard, transmitted directly to the launch head and transmitted through TDRS. The data and graphs are being used to draw conclusions related to a lower than expected signal strength seen in the range safety return link.

  10. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

    2015-01-01

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  11. The Preparedness of the Indonesian Garment Exporters in the Post-MFA Scenario: An Analysis from the Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muchsin Shihab

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available The clothing or garments industry has developed rapidly during the past some decades and has contributed to the economic growth of many nations, both developed and developing countries. This industry has been very much regulated by many bilateral agreements such as Multi Fiber Arrangement (MFA, a quota arrangement made by the importing countries. As MFA (quota regime comes to an end by 2005 and integrates into the WTO regime, it will bring opportunities to highly competitive and proactive garment exporting countries whereas the challenges will be faced more by the less competitive countries. Issues related to environment and social compliance, technology requirements etc. have been brought into surface by the importing countries, which may worsen the condition. Under the above scenario, it is imperative that certain proactive measures be taken. Thus, the broad objective of this study is to analyze the response of the garment exporters from Indonesia towards the emerging issues related to environmental and social compliance, technology requirements etc. The present study is a questionnaire-based study. The samples have been selected from the Directories of largest exporters in the country. With reminders and persuasion, the final number of useable responses has been 115 Indonesian garment exporters. Seven factors of the emerging issues were identified by using factor analysis. In addition, factors of competitiveness, and the strategies adopted by the exporters have also been analyzed. The findings show that the overall perceptions of the Indonesia garment exporters indicate that Indonesia is less competitive as compared to other competing countries.

  12. Application of scenario analysis and multiagent technique in land-use planning: a case study on Sanjiang wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Huan; Ni, Shi-Jun; Kong, Bo; He, Zheng-Wei; Zhang, Cheng-Jiang; Zhang, Shu-Qing; Pan, Xin; Xia, Chao-Xu; Li, Xuan-Qiong

    2013-01-01

    Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA) method and multiagent system (MAS) simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

  13. Application of Scenario Analysis and Multiagent Technique in Land-Use Planning: A Case Study on Sanjiang Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land-use planning has triggered debates on social and environmental values, in which two key questions will be faced: one is how to see different planning simulation results instantaneously and apply the results back to interactively assist planning work; the other is how to ensure that the planning simulation result is scientific and accurate. To answer these questions, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether and how a bridge can be built between qualitative and quantitative approaches for land-use planning work and to find out a way to overcome the gap that exists between the ability to construct computer simulation models to aid integrated land-use plan making and the demand for them by planning professionals. The study presented a theoretical framework of land-use planning based on scenario analysis (SA method and multiagent system (MAS simulation integration and selected freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain of China as a case study area. Study results showed that MAS simulation technique emphasizing quantitative process effectively compensated for the SA method emphasizing qualitative process, which realized the organic combination of qualitative and quantitative land-use planning work, and then provided a new idea and method for the land-use planning and sustainable managements of land resources.

  14. 2020s scenario analysis of nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, Chihiro; Zhou, Maichun; Kiem, Anthony S; Fukami, Kazuhiko; Prasantha, Hapuarachchi H A; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Takeuchi, Kuniyoshi

    2009-10-01

    A distributed hydrological model, YHyM, was integrated with the export coefficient concept and applied to simulate the nutrient load in the Mekong River Basin. In the validation period (1992-1999), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 76.4% for discharge, 65.9% for total nitrogen, and 45.3% for total phosphorus at Khong Chiam. Using the model, scenario analysis was then performed for the 2020s taking into account major anthropogenic factors: climate change, population, land cover, fertilizer use, and industrial waste water. The results show that the load at Kompong Cham in 2020s is 6.3 x 10(4)tN a(-1) (+13.0% compared to 1990s) and 4.3 x 10(3)tP a(-1) (+24.7%). Overall, the noticeable nutrient sources are cropland in the middle region and urban load in the lower region. The installation of waste water treatment plants in urban areas possibly cut 60.6%N and 19.9%P of the estimated increase in the case without any treatment.

  15. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Theodor-Heuss-Str. 4, D-38122 Braunschweig (Germany); Lommerzheim, Andre [DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, Eschenstr. 55, D-31224 Peine (Germany); Mrugalla, Sabine [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

  16. Quantifying the Degree of Movement Dissimilarity between Two Distinct Action Scenarios: An Exploratory Approach with Procrustes Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Passos

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Game consoles allow subjects to perform movements which are visually similar to the movements performed in ‘real’ world scenarios. Beyond entertainment, virtual reality devices are being used in several domains: sports performance; motor rehabilitation; training of risk professions. This article presents the Procrustes method to measure the degree of dissimilarity between movements performed in ‘real’ and ‘virtual’ scenarios. For this purpose, the 501 darts game and a video darts game played on a console were used. The participants’ arm throwing movements were video recorded and digitized. The matrices of x and y coordinates of the movements of the wrist, elbow, and shoulder in both performance scenarios were subjected to the Procrustes method. The wrist displays the most extreme dissimilarity values (higher than elbow and shoulder. Results also revealed smaller dissimilarity values for movements performed under the same conditions (e.g., real–real and larger dissimilarity values between movements performed in different scenarios.

  17. Quantifying the Degree of Movement Dissimilarity between Two Distinct Action Scenarios: An Exploratory Approach with Procrustes Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passos, Pedro; Campos, Tania; Diniz, Ana

    2017-01-01

    Game consoles allow subjects to perform movements which are visually similar to the movements performed in 'real' world scenarios. Beyond entertainment, virtual reality devices are being used in several domains: sports performance; motor rehabilitation; training of risk professions. This article presents the Procrustes method to measure the degree of dissimilarity between movements performed in 'real' and 'virtual' scenarios. For this purpose, the 501 darts game and a video darts game played on a console were used. The participants' arm throwing movements were video recorded and digitized. The matrices of x and y coordinates of the movements of the wrist, elbow, and shoulder in both performance scenarios were subjected to the Procrustes method. The wrist displays the most extreme dissimilarity values (higher than elbow and shoulder). Results also revealed smaller dissimilarity values for movements performed under the same conditions (e.g., real-real) and larger dissimilarity values between movements performed in different scenarios.

  18. Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Ke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

  19. Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenborg, J.; Winegardner, W.K.; Pelto, P.J.; Voss, J.W.; Stottlemyre, J.A.; Forbes, I.A.; Fussell, J.B.; Burkholder, H.C.

    1978-11-01

    The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods is recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods

  20. Demonstration of Mobile Auto-GPS for Large Scale Human Mobility Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horanont, Teerayut; Witayangkurn, Apichon; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

    2013-04-01

    The greater affordability of digital devices and advancement of positioning and tracking capabilities have presided over today's age of geospatial Big Data. Besides, the emergences of massive mobile location data and rapidly increase in computational capabilities open up new opportunities for modeling of large-scale urban dynamics. In this research, we demonstrate the new type of mobile location data called "Auto-GPS" and its potential use cases for urban applications. More than one million Auto-GPS mobile phone users in Japan have been observed nationwide in a completely anonymous form for over an entire year from August 2010 to July 2011 for this analysis. A spate of natural disasters and other emergencies during the past few years has prompted new interest in how mobile location data can help enhance our security, especially in urban areas which are highly vulnerable to these impacts. New insights gleaned from mining the Auto-GPS data suggest a number of promising directions of modeling human movement during a large-scale crisis. We question how people react under critical situation and how their movement changes during severe disasters. Our results demonstrate a case of major earthquake and explain how people who live in Tokyo Metropolitan and vicinity area behave and return home after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011.

  1. Bayesian probability analysis: a prospective demonstration of its clinical utility in diagnosing coronary disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Detrano, R.; Yiannikas, J.; Salcedo, E.E.; Rincon, G.; Go, R.T.; Williams, G.; Leatherman, J.

    1984-01-01

    One hundred fifty-four patients referred for coronary arteriography were prospectively studied with stress electrocardiography, stress thallium scintigraphy, cine fluoroscopy (for coronary calcifications), and coronary angiography. Pretest probabilities of coronary disease were determined based on age, sex, and type of chest pain. These and pooled literature values for the conditional probabilities of test results based on disease state were used in Bayes theorem to calculate posttest probabilities of disease. The results of the three noninvasive tests were compared for statistical independence, a necessary condition for their simultaneous use in Bayes theorem. The test results were found to demonstrate pairwise independence in patients with and those without disease. Some dependencies that were observed between the test results and the clinical variables of age and sex were not sufficient to invalidate application of the theorem. Sixty-eight of the study patients had at least one major coronary artery obstruction of greater than 50%. When these patients were divided into low-, intermediate-, and high-probability subgroups according to their pretest probabilities, noninvasive test results analyzed by Bayesian probability analysis appropriately advanced 17 of them by at least one probability subgroup while only seven were moved backward. Of the 76 patients without disease, 34 were appropriately moved into a lower probability subgroup while 10 were incorrectly moved up. We conclude that posttest probabilities calculated from Bayes theorem more accurately classified patients with and without disease than did pretest probabilities, thus demonstrating the utility of the theorem in this application

  2. Analysis of an infill scenario for Rotterdam. Traffic noise, air pollution, and public health in relation to urban density and traffic of cars and bicycles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaminée, S.; Rietveld, E.; Salomons, E.; Kluizenaar, Y. de; Borsboom, J.; Borst, H.; Guit, M.

    2012-01-01

    An analysis is presented of various elements of an infill scenario for the center of Rotterdam in the year 2030, corresponding to a population increase from about 30,000 to 60,000 inhabitants. We have implemented detailed future building designs in our software instrument Urban Strategy, and

  3. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  4. Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

    2017-12-01

    Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development

  5. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, Erik; Lopez-Iturri, Peio; Azpilicueta, Leyre; Astrain, José Javier; Villadangos, Jesús; Santesteban, Daniel; Falcone, Francisco

    2016-08-30

    The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN). Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  6. Implementation and Analysis of a Wireless Sensor Network-Based Pet Location Monitoring System for Domestic Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Aguirre

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The flexibility of new age wireless networks and the variety of sensors to measure a high number of variables, lead to new scenarios where anything can be monitored by small electronic devices, thereby implementing Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN. Thanks to ZigBee, RFID or WiFi networks the precise location of humans or animals as well as some biological parameters can be known in real-time. However, since wireless sensors must be attached to biological tissues and they are highly dispersive, propagation of electromagnetic waves must be studied to deploy an efficient and well-working network. The main goal of this work is to study the influence of wireless channel limitations in the operation of a specific pet monitoring system, validated at physical channel as well as at functional level. In this sense, radio wave propagation produced by ZigBee devices operating at the ISM 2.4 GHz band is studied through an in-house developed 3D Ray Launching simulation tool, in order to analyze coverage/capacity relations for the optimal system selection as well as deployment strategy in terms of number of transceivers and location. Furthermore, a simplified dog model is developed for simulation code, considering not only its morphology but also its dielectric properties. Relevant wireless channel information such as power distribution, power delay profile and delay spread graphs are obtained providing an extensive wireless channel analysis. A functional dog monitoring system is presented, operating over the implemented ZigBee network and providing real time information to Android based devices. The proposed system can be scaled in order to consider different types of domestic pets as well as new user based functionalities.

  7. Regional-Level Carbon Emissions Modelling and Scenario Analysis: A STIRPAT Case Study in Henan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengyan Zhang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Global warming has brought increased attention to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development. Research on the driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption can provide a scientific basis for regional energy savings, as well as emissions reduction and sustainable development. Henan Province is a major agricultural province in China, and it is one of most populous provinces. Industrial development and population growth are the causes of carbon emissions. The STIRPAT model was conducted for analyzing carbon emissions and the driving factors for future carbon emission in Henan Province. The results show that: carbon emissions and energy consumption in Henan Province presented a rising trend from 1995 to 2014; Energy consumption due to population growth is the main contributor to carbon emissions in Henan Province. As every 1% increase in the population, GDP per-capita, energy intensity, and the level of urbanization development will contribute to the growth of emissions by 1.099, 0.193, 0.043, and 0.542%, respectively. The optimization of the industrial structure can reduce carbon emissions in Henan Province, as suggested by the results, when the tertiary sector increased by more than 1%, the total energy consumption of carbon emissions reduced by 1.297%. The future pattern of carbon emissions in Henan Province is predicted to increase initially and then follows by a decreasing trend, according to scenario analysis; and maintaining a low population growth rate, and a high growth rate of GDP per-capita and technical level is the best mode for social and economic development.

  8. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  9. Comparative analysis of greenhouse gas emissions between scenarios - Contribution of the Experts Group - National Debate on Energy Transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Within the frame of the French national debate on energy transition, this document briefly presents and comments calculations of greenhouse gas emissions according to 11 scenarios associated with 4 pathways: electrification and de-carbonation (NegaTEP), steady demand and diversification (Ancre DIV), efficiency and diversification (Ademe), and energy saving and phasing out nuclear (Negawatt). These pathways and scenarios are analysed in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and with respect to the objective of a factor-4 reduction by 2050. Emission data for 1990 and 2011 are recalled, as well as France commitments. The author outlines that only four scenarios reach this factor-4 objective as far as CO 2 combustion is concerned, that a factor 2 seems to be possible for some specific sectors (agriculture and wastes). He notices significant decreases in industrial processes since 1990, that only 2 scenarios and 2 pathways reach the factor-4 as far as all greenhouse gases are concerned. When taking energy demand into account, no scenario is able to reach the factor-4 without any strong policy of energy saving. Two conditions are therefore identified to reach this factor: a significant decrease of energy demand, and an action on all emission sources

  10. Tsunami hazard for the city of Catania, eastern Sicily, Italy, assessed by means of Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Tonini

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Eastern Sicily is one of the coastal areas most exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis in Italy. The city of Catania that developed between the eastern base of Etna volcano and the Ionian Sea is, together with the neighbour coastal belt, under the strong menace of tsunamis. This paper addresses the estimation of the tsunami hazard for the city of Catania by using the technique of the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis (WCTSA and is focused on a target area including the Catania harbour and the beach called La Plaia where many human activities develop and many important structures are present. The aim of the work is to provide a detailed tsunami hazard analysis, firstly by building scenarios that are proposed on the basis of tectonic considerations and of the largest historical events that hit the city in the past, and then by combining all the information deriving from single scenarios into a unique aggregated scenario that can be viewed as the worst virtual scenario. Scenarios have been calculated by means of numerical simulations on computational grids of different resolutions, passing from 3 km on a regional scale to 40 m in the target area. La Plaia beach results to be the area most exposed to tsunami inundation, with inland penetration up to hundreds of meters. The harbour turns out to be more exposed to tsunami waves with low frequencies: in particular, it is found that the major contribution to the hazard in the harbour is due to a tsunami from a remote source, which propagates with much longer periods than tsunamis from local sources. This work has been performed in the framework of the EU-funded project SCHEMA.

  11. The Key-Role of shielding analysis in advanced Candu Fuel bundles nuclear safety improvement for some accidental criticality scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Margeanu, C.A.; Rizoiu, A.; Olteanu, G.

    2008-01-01

    The paper aims to present the source term and photon dose rates estimation for advanced Candu fuel bundles in some accidental criticality scenarios. As reference, the Candu standard fuel bundle has been used. The scenarios take into account for a very short-time irradiated or spent fuel bundles for some configurations closed to criticality. In order to estimate irradiated fuel characteristic parameters and radiation doses, the ORNL's SCALE 5 codes Origin-S and Monte Carlo MORSE-SGC have been used. The paper includes the irradiated fuel characteristic parameters comparison for the considered Candu fuel bundles, providing also a comparison between the corresponding radiation doses

  12. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  13. Cell lineage analysis demonstrates an endodermal origin of the distal urethra and perineum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifert, Ashley W; Harfe, Brian D; Cohn, Martin J

    2008-06-01

    Congenital malformations of anorectal and genitourinary (collectively, anogenital) organs occur at a high frequency in humans, however the lineage of cells that gives rise to anogenital organs remains poorly understood. The penile urethra has been reported to develop from two cell populations, with the proximal urethra developing from endoderm and the distal urethra forming from an apical ectodermal invagination, however this has never been tested by direct analysis of cell lineage. During gut development, endodermal cells express Sonic hedgehog (Shh), which is required for normal patterning of digestive and genitourinary organs. We have taken advantage of the properties of Shh expression to genetically label and follow the fate of posterior gut endoderm during anogenital development. We report that the entire urethra, including the distal (glandar) region, is derived from endoderm. Cloacal endoderm also gives rise to the epithelial linings of the bladder, rectum and anterior region of the anus. Surprisingly, the lineage map also revealed an endodermal origin of the perineum, which is the first demonstration that endoderm differentiates into skin. In addition, we fate mapped genital tubercle ectoderm and show that it makes no detectable contribution to the urethra. In males, formation of the urethral tube involves septation of the urethral plate by continued growth of the urorectal septum. Analysis of cell lineage following disruption of androgen signaling revealed that the urethral plate of flutamide-treated males does not undergo this septation event. Instead, urethral plate cells persist to the ventral margin of the tubercle, mimicking the pattern seen in females. Based on these spatial and temporal fate maps, we present a new model for anogenital development and suggest that disruptions at specific developmental time points can account for the association between anorectal and genitourinary defects.

  14. Demonstration uncertainty/sensitivity analysis using the health and economic consequence model CRAC2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alpert, D.J.; Iman, R.L.; Johnson, J.D.; Helton, J.C.

    1984-12-01

    The techniques for performing uncertainty/sensitivity analyses compiled as part of the MELCOR program appear to be well suited for use with a health and economic consequence model. Two replicate samples of size 50 gave essentially identical results, indicating that for this case, a Latin hypercube sample of size 50 seems adequate to represent the distribution of results. Though the intent of this study was a demonstration of uncertainty/sensitivity analysis techniques, a number of insights relevant to health and economic consequence modeling can be gleaned: uncertainties in early deaths are significantly greater than uncertainties in latent cancer deaths; though the magnitude of the source term is the largest source of variation in estimated distributions of early deaths, a number of additional parameters are also important; even with the release fractions for a full SST1, one quarter of the CRAC2 runs gave no early deaths; and comparison of the estimates of mean early deaths for a full SST1 release in this study with those of recent point estimates for similar conditions indicates that the recent estimates may be significant overestimations of early deaths. Estimates of latent cancer deaths, however, are roughly comparable. An analysis of the type described here can provide insights in a number of areas. First, the variability in the results gives an indication of the potential uncertainty associated with the calculations. Second, the sensitivity of the results to assumptions about the input variables can be determined. Research efforts can then be concentrated on reducing the uncertainty in the variables which are the largest contributors to uncertainty in results

  15. Design and analysis of electrical energy storage demonstration projects on UK distribution networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyons, P.F.; Wade, N.S.; Jiang, T.; Taylor, P.C.; Hashiesh, F.; Michel, M.; Miller, D.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Results of an EES system demonstration project carried out in the UK. • Approaches to the design of trials for EES and observation on their application. • A formalised methodology for analysis of smart grids trials. • Validated models of energy storage. • Capability of EES to connect larger quantities of heat pumps and PV is evaluated. - Abstract: The UK government’s CO 2 emissions targets will require electrification of much of the country’s infrastructure with low carbon technologies such as photovoltaic panels, electric vehicles and heat pumps. The large scale proliferation of these technologies will necessitate major changes to the planning and operation of distribution networks. Distribution network operators are trialling electrical energy storage (EES) across their networks to increase their understanding of the contribution that it can make to enable the expected paradigm shift in generation and consumption of electricity. In order to evaluate a range of applications for EES, including voltage control and power flow management, installations have taken place at various distribution network locations and voltage levels. This article reports on trial design approaches and their application to a UK trial of an EES system to ensure broad applicability of the results. Results from these trials of an EES system, low carbon technologies and trial distribution networks are used to develop validated power system models. These models are used to evaluate, using a formalised methodology, the impact that EES could have on the design and operation of future distribution networks

  16. From demonstration to deployment: An economic analysis of support policies for carbon capture and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krahé, Max; Heidug, Wolf; Ward, John; Smale, Robin

    2013-01-01

    This paper argues that an integrated policy architecture consisting of multiple policy phases and economic instruments is needed to support the development of carbon capture and storage (CCS) from its present demonstration phase to full-scale deployment. Building on an analysis of the different types of policy instruments to correct market failures specific to CCS in its various stages of development, we suggest a way to combine these into an integrated policy architecture. This policy architecture adapts to the need of a maturing technology, meets the requirement of policymakers to maintain flexibility to respond to changing circumstances while providing investors with the policy certainty that is needed to encourage private sector investment. This combination of flexibility and predictability is achieved through the use of ‘policy gateways’ which explicitly define rules and criteria for when and how policy settings will change. Our findings extend to bioenergy-based CCS applications (BECCS), which could potentially achieve negative emissions. We argue that within a framework of correcting the carbon externality, the added environmental benefits of BECCS should be reflected in an extra incentive. - Highlights: • Sensible aim of current climate policy: secure option of future CCS deployment. • But policy makers require flexibility while private investors require predictability. • Integrating CCS policy into an overall policy architecture can overcome this antinomy. • We describe the key features of a good policy architecture and give an example

  17. Design and preparation of scenarios for human factors studies in the HAMMLAB

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moracho, M. J.

    1999-01-01

    In the preparation of experiments for Human Factors studies, the scenarios play an important role. As a matter of fact, scenario effect is often demonstrated in the analysis of results. An experimental study referred to as Experiments' 97 was conducted in the Halden Man Machine LABoratory. In the design of the scenarios for this experiment, an effort was made for producing scenarios in compliance with the objectives of the study. Before the experiment simulations, scenario analysis was conducted and documented. This report presents some of the lessons learned from these activities. It also identifies main issues to be considered in the scenario characterisation and preparation. Examples of the scenarios' design document produced for the Experiments' 97 as well as examples of measure definitions for OPAS (OPerator Assessment System) and PPAS (Plant Performance System) are included in the appendixes (author) (ml)

  18. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

  19. Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakiyama, Takako; Kuramochi, Takeshi

    2017-01-01

    This paper assesses to what extent CO_2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)”). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO_2 of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO_2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Highlights: • Further reduction of electricity consumption is possible beyond Japan's post-2020 mitigation target. • Energy saving efforts by households and incentives to reduce electricity demands are required. • Improvement of CO_2 intensity from electricity is a key factor in the reduction of CO_2 emissions.

  20. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  1. Scenario-based energy efficiency and productivity in China: A non-radial directional distance function analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H.; Zhou, P.; Zhou, D.Q.

    2013-01-01

    Improving energy efficiency and productivity is one of the most cost-effective ways for achieving the sustainable development target in China. This paper employs non-radial directional distance function approach to empirically investigate energy efficiency and energy productivity by including CO 2 emissions as an undesirable output. Three production scenarios, namely energy conservation (EC), energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER), and energy conservation, emission reduction and economic growth (ECEREG), are specified to assess China's energy efficiency and productivity growth during the period of Eleventh Five-Year Plan. Our empirical results show that there exist substantial differences in China's total-factor energy efficiency and productivity under different scenarios. Under the ECEREG scenario, the national average total-factor energy efficiency score was 0.6306 in 2005–2010, while the national average total-factor energy productivity increased by 0.27% annually during the period. The main driving force for energy productivity growth in China was energy technological change rather than energy efficiency change. - Highlights: • China's regional energy efficiency and productivity in 2005–2010 are evaluated. • Three production scenarios are considered. • Non-radial directional distance function with CO 2 emissions is employed. • Technological change is the main driver for China's energy productivity growth

  2. Analysis of transport logistics and routing requirements for radioactive waste management systems with respect to a minimum power scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    James, I.A.

    1984-10-01

    This report assesses the transport logistics associated with disposal of intermediate-level radioactive waste, as generated by CEGB, SSEB, UKAEA and BNFL, in accordance with a 'Minimum Power Scenario'. Transport by road and rail is analysed, as in previous reports; use of coastal shipping however has not been included but has been replaced with a combined road/rail option. (author)

  3. Ecology, Economy and security of supply of the Dutch Electricity Supply System. A scenario based future analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roedel, J.G.

    2008-01-01

    The Dutch electricity sector has been transformed into a liberalized international energy market. Market players are free to choose from various electricity generation options when replacing or expanding production capacity. However, choices that are made now will influence emissions (ecology), integral costs (economy) and availability (security of supply) for the next 25 - 40 years. This thesis shows if and how, based on the current electricity supply system, an optimal balance of ecology, economy and security of supply can be achieved. First, the current electricity supply system is described to create a frame of reference. Then, future technological developments are described for electricity production options. Four potential scenarios are constructed featuring various uncertainties: the globalising versus the local economy; priority versus subordination for the environment; and the security/insecurity of the fuel supply. These four scenarios are worked out with a specially developed techno-economic simulation model; the results are analysed in terms of ecology, economy and security of supply. The findings indicate that it is impossible to arrive at an optimal balance for the defined scenarios. Scenarios with a low environmental impact lead to high integral costs and vice versa. However, by applying a smart combination of various modern generation technologies, CO2 capture and storage, the deployment of biomass and the re-use of residual heat it is possible to reach an optimal balance whereby the additional integral costs can be kept under control compared with the lowest-cost scenarios. To achieve this, clear growth and incentive guidelines need to be established for the various production options. This thesis will form a good starting point for that exercise

  4. Phase 1 Characterization sampling and analysis plan West Valley demonstration project.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, R. L. (Environmental Science Division)

    2011-06-30

    The Phase 1 Characterization Sampling and Analysis Plan (CSAP) provides details about environmental data collection that will be taking place to support Phase 1 decommissioning activities described in the Phase 1 Decommissioning Plan for the West Valley Demonstration Project, Revision 2 (Phase I DP; DOE 2009). The four primary purposes of CSAP data collection are: (1) pre-design data collection, (2) remedial support, (3) post-remediation status documentation, and (4) Phase 2 decision-making support. Data collection to support these four main objectives is organized into two distinct data collection efforts. The first is data collection that will take place prior to the initiation of significant Phase 1 decommissioning activities (e.g., the Waste Management Area [WMA] 1 and WMA 2 excavations). The second is data collection that will occur during and immediately after environmental remediation in support of remediation activities. Both data collection efforts have a set of well-defined objectives that encompass the data needs of the four main CSAP data collection purposes detailed in the CSAP. The main body of the CSAP describes the overall data collection strategies that will be used to satisfy data collection objectives. The details of pre-remediation data collection are organized by WMA. The CSAP contains an appendix for each WMA that describes the details of WMA-specific pre-remediation data collection activities. The CSAP is intended to expand upon the data collection requirements identified in the Phase 1 Decommissioning Plan. The CSAP is intended to tightly integrate with the Phase 1 Final Status Survey Plan (FSSP). Data collection described by the CSAP is consistent with the FSSP where appropriate and to the extent possible.

  5. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  6. Life-cycle analysis of the total Danish energy system. An assessment of the present Danish energy system and selected furture scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuemmel, B; Soerensen, B

    1997-01-01

    The promise of life-cycle analysis (LCA) is to enable the incorporation of environmental and social impacts into decision-making processes. The challenge is to do it on the basis of the always incomplete and uncertain data available, in a way that is sufficiently transparent to avoid that the modeller introduces any particular bias into the decision process, by the way of selecting and treating the incomplete data. The life-cycle analysis of the currently existing system is to be seen as a reference, against which alternative solutions to the same problem is weighed. However, as it takes time to introduce new systems, the alternative scenarios are for a future situation, which is chosen as the middle of the 21st century. The reason for using a 30-50 year period is a reflection on the time needed for a smooth transition to an energy system based on sources different from the ones used today, with implied differences all the way through the conversion and end-use system. A scenario will only be selected if it has been identified and if there is social support for it, so construction of more exotic scenarios by the researcher would only be meaningful, if its advantages are so convincing that an interest can be created and the necessary social support be forthcoming. One may say that the energy scenarios based on renewable energy sources are in this category, as they were identified by a minority group (of scientists and other individuals) and successfully brought to the attention of the public debate during 1970ies. In any case it should be kept in mind, that no claim of having identified the optimum solution can be made after assessing a finite number of scenarios. (EG) 88 refs.

  7. In France, 37 nuclear reactors out of 58 can be stopped right away tomorrow without electricity outage. How is it possible? Mathematical demonstration of an electric scenario 'right-away Tomorrow'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Houpert, Sylvain

    2013-12-01

    According to the 'Des demain' (right-away tomorrow), this document indicates data related to nuclear electric power in France (production, export, self-consumption, loss due to Fessenheim shut down, to the production of other electricity production plants (from coal, gas, oil, biomass, wind, sun). From these data, it states that France could operate with 1 nuclear reactor out of 3 (whereas Japan has stopped 98 pc of its reactors after the Fukushima accident). This result and its possible consequences are then discussed, and the 'Des demain' scenario is then presented in terms of electric power production for the 20 years to come, CO 2 emissions for the next 20 years, energy transition and renewable energies in France in 2012

  8. Regulatory analysis of the Underground Storage Tank-Integrated Demonstration Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, E.H.

    1992-01-01

    The Underground Storage Tank-Integrated Demonstration (UST-ID) Program has been developed to identify, demonstrate, test, and evaluate technologies that will provide alternatives to the current underground storage tank remediation program. The UST-ID Program is a national program that consists of five participating US Department of Energy (DOE) sites where technologies can be developed an ultimately demonstrated. Once these technologies are demonstrated, the UST-ID Program will transfer the developed technology system to industry (governmental or industrial) for application or back to Research and Development for further evaluation and modification, as necessary. In order to ensure that the UST-ID Program proceeds without interruption, it will be necessary to identify regulatory requirements along with associated permitting and notification requirements early in the technology development process. This document serves as a baseline for identifying certain federal and state regulatory requirements that may impact the UST-ID Program and the demonstration of any identified technologies

  9. Global-scale projection and its sensitivity analysis of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition under the latest scenario framework for climate change research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishida, Hiroyuki; Kobayashi, Shota; Kanae, Shinjiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-01-01

    This study assessed the health burden attributable to childhood underweight through 2050 focusing on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), by considering the latest scenarios for climate change studies (representative concentration pathways and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)) and conducting sensitivity analysis. A regression model for estimating DALYs attributable to childhood underweight (DAtU) was developed using the relationship between DAtU and childhood stunting. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model, a crop model, and two regression models to assess the future health burden. We found that (i) world total DAtU decreases from 2005 by 28 ∼ 63% in 2050 depending on the socioeconomic scenarios. Per capita DAtU also decreases in all regions under either scenario in 2050, but the decreases vary significantly by regions and scenarios. (ii) The impact of climate change is relatively small in the framework of this study but, on the other hand, socioeconomic conditions have a great impact on the future health burden. (iii) Parameter uncertainty of the regression models is the second largest factor on uncertainty of the result following the changes in socioeconomic condition, and uncertainty derived from the difference in global circulation models is the smallest in the framework of this study. (letters)

  10. Critical analysis of accident scenario and consequences modelling applied to light-water reactor power plants for accident categories beyond the design basis accident (DBA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brofferio, C.; Cagnetti, P.; Ferrara, V.; Manilia, E.; Pietrangeli, G.; Sennis, C.

    1985-01-01

    A critical analysis and sensitivity study of the modelling of accident scenarios and environmental consequences are presented, for light-water reactor accident categories beyond the standard design-basis-accident category. The first chapter, on ''source term'' deals with the release of fission products from a damaged core inventory and their migration within the primary circuit and the reactor containment. Particular attention is given to the influence of engineering safeguards intervention and of the chemical forms of the released fission products. The second chapter deals with their release to the atmosphere, transport and wet or dry deposition, outlining relevant partial effects and confronting short-duration or prolonged releases. The third chapter presents a variability analysis, for environmental contamination levels, for two extreme hypothetical scenarios, evidencing the importance of plume rise. A numerical plume rise model is outlined

  11. Scenario analysis of the impacts of socioeconomic development on phosphorous export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Ying; Chen, Weiping; Liao, Yuehua; Luo, Yueping

    2017-12-01

    Socioeconomic development in lake watersheds is closely related with lake nutrient pollution. As the second largest freshwater lake in China, the Dongting Lake has been experiencing an increase in nutrient loading and a growing risk of eutrophication. This study aimed to reveal the likely impacts of the socioeconomic development of the Dongting Lake watershed on the phosphorous pollution in the lake. We estimated the contributions from different sources and sub-watersheds to the total phosphorous (TP) export and loading from the Dongting Lake watershed under two most likely socioeconomic development scenarios. Moreover, we predicted the likely permissible and actual TP loadings to the Dongting Lake. Under both two scenarios, three secondary sub-watersheds-the upper and lower reaches of the Xiang River watershed and the Dongting Lake Area-are expected to dominate the contribution to the TP export from the Dongting Lake watershed in 2020. Three primary sub-watersheds-the Dongting Lake Area, the Xiang River, and the Yuan River watersheds-are predicted to be the major contributors to the TP loading from the entire watershed. The two scenarios are expected to have a slight difference in TP export and lake TP loading. Livestock husbandry is expected to be the predominant anthropogenic TP source in each of the sub-watersheds under both scenarios. Compared to 2010, permissible TP loading is not expected to increase but actual TP loading is predicted to grow significantly in 2020. Our study provides methodologies to identify the key sources and regions of lake nutrient loading from watersheds with complex socioeconomic context, and to reveal the potential influences of socioeconomic development on nutrient pollution in lake watersheds.

  12. Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China's future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ou Xunmin; Zhang Xiliang; Chang Shiyan

    2010-01-01

    The rapid growth of vehicles has resulted in continuing growth in China's oil demand. This paper analyzes future trends of both direct and life cycle energy demand (ED) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China's road transport sector, and assesses the effectiveness of possible reduction measures by using alternative vehicles/fuels. A model is developed to derive a historical trend and to project future trends. The government is assumed to do nothing additional in the future to influence the long-term trends in the business as usual (BAU) scenario. Four specific scenarios are used to describe the future cases where different alternative fuel/vehicles are applied. The best case scenario is set to represent the most optimized case. Direct ED and GHG emissions would reach 734 million tonnes of oil equivalent and 2384 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050 in the BAU case, respectively, more than 5.6 times of 2007 levels. Compared with the BAU case, the relative reductions achieved in the best case would be 15.8% and 27.6% for life cycle ED and GHG emissions, respectively. It is suggested for future policy implementation to support sustainable biofuel and high efficient electric-vehicles, and the deployment of coal-based fuels accompanied with low-carbon technology.

  13. Hydropower Generation Vulnerability in the Yangtze River in China under Climate Change Scenarios: Analysis Based on the WEAP Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Zhang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming caused by human activities exacerbates the water cycle, changes precipitation features, such as precipitation amount, intensity and time, and raises uncertainties in water resources. This work uses run-off data obtained using climate change models under representative concentration pathways (RCPs and selects the Yangtze River Basin as the research boundary to evaluate and analyse the vulnerability of hydropower generation in 2016–2050 on the basis of the water evaluation and planning model. Results show that the amount of rainfall during 2016–2050 in the Yangtze River Basin is estimated to increase with fluctuations in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In the RCP4.5 scenario, hydropower stations exhibit large fluctuations in generating capacity, which present the trend of an increase after a decrease; in the RCP8.5 scenario, the generating capacity of hydropower stations in the Yangtze River Basin presents a steady increase. Over 50% of the generating capacity in the Yangtze River Basin is produced from the Three Gorges Dam and 10 other hydropower stations. Over 90% is generated in eight river basins, including the Jinsha, Ya-lung and Min Rivers. Therefore, climate change may accelerate changes in the Yangtze River Basin and further lead to vulnerability of hydropower generation.

  14. Use of two indicators for the socio-environmental risk analysis of Northern Mexico under three climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Santos, Armando; Martínez-Santiago, Santos

    The aims of this study were to (1) find critical areas susceptible to the degradation of natural resources according to local erosion rates and aridity levels, which were used as environmental quality indicators, and (2) identify areas of risk associated with the presence of natural hazards according to three climate change scenarios defined for Mexico. The focus was the municipality of Lerdo, Durango (25.166° to 25.783° N and 103.333° to 103.983° W), which has dry temperate and very dry climates (BSohw and BWhw). From the Global Circulation Models, downscaling techniques for the dynamic modeling of environmental processes using climate data, historical information, and three regionalized climate change scenarios were applied to determine the impacts from laminar wind erosion rates (LWER) and aridity indices (AI). From the historic period to scenario A2 (ScA2, 2010-2039), regarding greenhouse gas emissions, the LWER was predicted to reach 147.2 t ha -1  year -1 , representing a 0.5 m thickness over nearly 30 years and a change in the AI from 9.3 to 8.7. This trend represents an increase in drought for 70.8 % of the study area and could affect 90 % of the agricultural activities and approximately 80 % of the population living in the southeastern Lerdense territory.

  15. The effectiveness and cost effectiveness of dark chocolate consumption as prevention therapy in people at high risk of cardiovascular disease: best case scenario analysis using a Markov model

    OpenAIRE

    Zomer, Ella; Owen, Alice; Magliano, Dianna J; Liew, Danny; Reid, Christopher M

    2012-01-01

    Objective To model the long term effectiveness and cost effectiveness of daily dark chocolate consumption in a population with metabolic syndrome at high risk of cardiovascular disease. Design Best case scenario analysis using a Markov model. Setting Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Participants 2013 people with hypertension who met the criteria for metabolic syndrome, with no history of cardiovascular disease and not receiving antihypertensive therapy. Main outcome measures ...

  16. Photonically wired spacecraft panels: an economic analysis and demonstrator for telecommunication satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putzer, Philipp; Hurni, Andreas; Ziegler, Bent; Panopoulou, Aikaterini; Lemke, Norbert; Costa, Ivo; Pereira, Celeste

    2017-09-01

    In this paper we present the design of smart satellite panels with integrated optical fibers for sensing and data communication. The project starts with a detailed analysis of the system needs and ends with a demonstrator breadboard showing the full performance during and after environmental tests such as vibrations and temperature. Future science missions will need higher bandwidth in the Gbit/s range for intra-satellite communications, so the step from electrical transmission media towards fiber-optical media is the logical next step to cope with future requirements. In addition, the fibers can be used to monitor temperatures directly underneath satellite payloads which will reduce the integration effort in a later phase. For temperature monitoring so called fiber Bragg gratings (FBGs) are written in special radiation tolerant fibers, which reflection wavelength allows a direct link to temperature at the grating position. A read-out system for FBGs to use within satellite applications is currently under development at OHB. For this study, first the environmental requirements for the panels are derived and in a second stage the functional requirements are defined. To define the functional requirements a telecommunication satellite platform, in the case here the Small-GEO series from OHB, has been taken as baseline. Based on the configuration of temperature sensors, communication lines and electrical signaling a possible replacement by fiber-optical technology was defined and traded w.r.t. its economic benefit. It has been pointed out that the replacement of temperature sensors will reduce harness mass, but the great benefit is seen here in the reduction of assembly effort. Once the satellite panel is manufactured, the temperature sensors are already implemented at certain positions. Another point for mass savings which has pointed out is the replacement of the high-voltage or high- current high power commands (HPC) by fiber optics. Replacing some of the several

  17. Global evaluation of nuclear infrastructure utilization scenarios (GENIUS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    unzik-Gougar, Mary Lou; Juchau, Christopher A.; Pasamehmetoglu, Kemal; Wilson, Paul P.H.; Oliver, Kyle M.; Turinsky, Paul J.; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S.; Hays, Ross; Stover, Tracy E.

    2007-01-01

    A new and unique fuel cycle systems code has been developed. Need for this analysis tool was established via methodical development of technical functions and requirements followed by an evaluation of existing fuel cycle codes. As demonstrated by analysis of GNEP-type scenarios, the GENIUS code discretely tracks nuclear material from beginning to end of the fuel cycle and among any number of independent regions. Users can define scenarios starting with any/all existing reactors and fuel cycle facilities or with an ideal futuristic arrangement. Development and preliminary application of GENIUS capabilities in uncertainty analysis/propagation and multi-parameter optimization have also been accomplished. (authors)

  18. Framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national carbon Emissions reduction target: Focused on educational facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong; Hong, Taehoon

    2014-01-01

    Since the increase in greenhouse gas emissions has increased the global warming potential, an international agreement on carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) has been formulated in Kyoto Protocol (1997). This study aimed to develop a framework for the analysis of the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT. To verify the feasibility of the proposed framework, educational facilities were used for a case study. This study was conducted in six steps: (i) selection of the target school; (ii) establishment of the reference model for the target school; (iii) energy consumption pattern analysis by target school; (iv) establishment of the energy retrofit model for the target school; (v) economic and environmental assessment through the life cycle cost and life cycle CO 2 analysis; and (vi) establishment of the low-carbon scenario in 2020 to achieve the national CERT. This study can help facility managers or policymakers establish the optimal retrofit strategy within the limited budget from a short-term perspective and the low-carbon scenario 2020 to achieve the national CERT from the long-term perspective. The proposed framework could be also applied to any other building type or country in the global environment

  19. Improving the policy of public procurements for development of science cities: agent-oriented modeling and scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir I. Abramov

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to assess the impact of policy change scenarios in the sphere of public procurements on the development of science cities. Methods simulation modeling agentoriented modeling. Results depressive trends of singleindustry townsrsquo development are one of the key problems in the development of Russia. At the same time the procedure for identifying suppliers proposed by the system of public procurements does not imply mechanisms that would favor the development of science cities. The article analyzes the approaches to estimate the effectiveness of the public procurements system. It is determined that the agentoriented approach is one of the most promising methods of public procurements management. Through simulation modeling in particular agentoriented approach the article presents the results of scenario experiments. It is established that public procurements can act not only as an instrument of effective expenditure of budgetary funds but also as a mechanism of economic development of territories. Although the presented experiments showed a decrease in the level of savings as a result of competitive procedures additionalnbsp socioeconomic effects were achieved due to the localization of procurements participants in the science citiesrsquo territory. Among other things the scenarios suggest reduction of transportation costs and consequently the traffic flow between Moscow and science cities which would help to reduce the load on the transport networks of megacities. Scientific novelty for the first time it was shown that the tool of public procurements can serve for stimulation and maintenance of the development of science cities and singleindustry towns and become a key factor in their development. The agentoriented model of the public procurements system functioning by the example of Zhukovskiy science city was developed which allows quantitative estimation of the consequences of introducing various mechanisms for improving the

  20. Sequential-Injection Analysis: Principles, Instrument Construction, and Demonstration by a Simple Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economou, A.; Tzanavaras, P. D.; Themelis, D. G.

    2005-01-01

    The sequential-injection analysis (SIA) is an approach to sample handling that enables the automation of manual wet-chemistry procedures in a rapid, precise and efficient manner. The experiments using SIA fits well in the course of Instrumental Chemical Analysis and especially in the section of Automatic Methods of analysis provided by chemistry…

  1. Mitigation scenario analysis: modelling the impacts of changes in agricultural management practices on surface water quality at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Sam; He, Yi; Hiscock, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    ) within the program SWAT-CUP (SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs). Model performance is assessed against a variety of statistical measures including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). Various mitigation scenarios are modelled within the catchment, including changes in fertiliser application rates and timing and the introduction of different tillage techniques and cover-crop regimes. The effects of the applied measures on water quality are examined and recommendations made on which measures have the greatest potential to be applied within the catchment to improve water quality. This study reports the findings of that analysis and presents techniques by which diffuse agricultural pollution can be reduced within catchments through the implementation of multiple on-farm measures. The methodology presented has the potential to be applied within other catchments, allowing tailored mitigation strategies to be developed. Ultimately, this research provides 'tested' mitigation options that can be applied within the Wensum and similar catchments to improve water quality and to ensure that certain obligatory water quality standards are achieved.

  2. A simulation method for the stability analysis of landscape scenarios by using a NetLogo application in GIS environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobattoni, Federica; Lauro, Giuliana; Leone, Antonio; Monaco, Roberto; Pelorosso, Raffaele

    2010-05-01

    Landscape continually evolves under the influence of a complex and broad range of natural processes, directly or indirectly determined by land use, but also under the impact of anthropic actions of planning and territorial management. While processes such as earthquakes, landslides, and so on, are manifestations of this evolutionary process, human decisions concerning land government (cropping, urbanization etc.) may affect dramatically the landscape evolution in a complex mechanism of cause-and-effect leading to accelerated erosion phenomena, hydro-geological instability and flood events. To better understand landscape evolution and change in time, several numerical and empirical models have been developed and implemented with the aim to explore and explain such complex processes; reproducing landscape evolution through models and schematic representation of reality could be a powerful and reliable tool for natural resources planning and decision making in land management. Even understanding interactions and relations between the involved variables, predicting how the system will react to external inputs such as political, social or economic constraints, could be strongly difficult. Decision support systems could help in choosing among possible alternatives by integrating different sources of information and "What if" scenarios could be developed as possible future states of the world that represent alternative plausible conditions under different assumptions (Mahmoud M. wt al., 2009). Modelling approaches can be successfully applied to describe and assess both the natural spatial environmental variability and the anthropic impacts at different temporal and spatial scales even if they usually takes into account each aspect of the environmental system separately and without looking directly at landscape as a unique system and without understanding its intrinsic evolution mechanisms (H. Siegrist, 2002, S. Demberel, 2003, A. Brenner, 2005). GIS-based models which

  3. SCENARIO OF AN ACCIDENT OF SOIL DAMS IN CASE OF WATER SPILL OVER A DAM CREST BY USING FAULT TREE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuznetsov Dmitriy Viktorovich

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The scenario of a hydrodynamic accident of water flow over a crest of a soil dam is considered by the method of fault tree analysis, for which the basic reasons and controlled diagnostic indicators of an accident have been defined. Logical operators “AND”/”OR” were used for creation of a sequence of logically connected events, leading to an undesired event in the scenario of accident. The scenario of the accident was plotted in case of three basic reasons - an excessive settling of a dam crest, an excess flood, an inoperable spillway, taking into account the sequence of the events’ development and with observance of the necessary conditions leading to an accident. “Technical” reasons were observed in the present scenario, force majeure events were not considered. The provided scenario of the accident consists of two branches of events’ development: the left one that depends on an upstream level, and the right one that depends on settling of a dam crest. In each of the considered events an accident “the water spill over a crest of a soil dam” is possible only in case of execution of two different conditions at the same time, i.e. in case of an appropriate upstream level and the appropriate mark of a crest of a soil dam. The conditions of the accident are defined by diagnostic indices - the upstream level and settling of a dam crest, which at the same time are safety criteria of the hydraulic structure for soil dams. They allow defining the technical condition of the construction. Four possible technical conditions are suggested for the definition of technical statuses - normative, operable, limited operable, abnormal. Criteria of safety are the boundaries of the state: for loading and impact - it is the upstream level, for geometrical compliance of the construction - it is a dam crest mark.

  4. Scenarios catalog for the graphical console for analysis of severe accidents visualization of OEs, NAEs and calculation of source term of the NPP-LV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandoval V, S.; Mendoza R, M. E.; Tijerina S, F.; Garcia C, T.

    2016-09-01

    A nuclear power plant is operated at all times within the design criteria of structures, systems and components, and according to the operation technical specifications. For different areas of work of a nuclear power plant is necessary to carry out practices in which is useful to have the prediction of the thermo-hydraulic and radiological progression of scenarios that imply exceeding that design bases, even reaching the damage of the fuel in different degree. During the exercises and drills of the External Plan of Emergency Response, the projection of doses is done to exercise the different tasks of the plan. To make the projection of doses is required to have the radiological source term of the scenario on which is practiced. Because of this, was identified the convenience of having a catalog of scenarios for which the radiological source term was calculated. In 2004, a first version of the catalog was produced for a power of 2027 MW, and in 2011 the catalog was updated for extended power conditions, 2317 MW. Both versions were made using the severe accident simulator MAAP-3B. That catalog consists of a form and an optical storage device. The form contains tables and figures in which the characteristics of the scenario to be practiced are searched and the electronic files of the corresponding radiological source term are located in the storage device. Due to the recent development of the graphical console for analysis of severe accidents, visualization of OEs, NAEs and calculation of the source term for the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde (NPP-LV) CoGrAAS, the catalog printed was replaced by an electronic catalog for the CoGrAAS. The new catalog retains the philosophy of the previous catalog, constituted by a wide collection of scenarios that involve different circumstances and phenomena, that can be used to practice different tasks during training exercises or simulacrums, and combined with the following advantages: the scenario selection is made from an

  5. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  6. Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

    2017-10-01

    Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Advantages for EDF of using and updating PSAs for the probabilistic analysis of accident scenarios in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feuillade, Gilles

    2000-01-01

    This paper shows the advantages for EDF of using and updating PSA models of PWR units for the probabilistic assessment of accident scenarios. These advantages may be classified in various categories: The construction of PSA models makes it possible to aggregate knowledge in a variety of fields: thermohydraulics, the behavior of equipment and systems, organization, plant operation, etc. The updating of PSA models makes it possible to monitor the state of progress of PWR unit safety levels and also allows a variety of applications to be used throughout the service life of the unit. The results obtained are directly applicable to the units as the 'reference PSA models' developed by EDF conform to the units in service. The use of PSA for the examination of incident or accident scenarios makes it possible to verify the adequacy of the resources both in terms of 'systems' and 'plant operation'. These two notions are to be taken in the broadest sense, as they cover the aspects of system design, reliability and availability of equipment, organization of plant operation, comprehensiveness of operating procedures, human redundancy, etc. The use of PSA models through the different applications (analyses of predominant sequences, analyses of main equipment failures, analyses main operator actions, analyses according to the power units, etc) is becoming an indispensable supplement to conventional deterministic analyses of the envisaged accident scenarios. Within the scope of accident prevention, it constitutes a tool to assist the decision-maker, especially when evaluating the pertinence of the General Operating Rules (operating procedures, operating technical specifications, periodic testing, etc). (S.Y.)

  8. Analysis of scenarios for sewerage, wastewater treatment and prioritised load on environment from the Greater City of Copenhagen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harremoës, P; Andersen, H S; Dupont, R; Jacobsen, P; Rindel, K

    2002-01-01

    The sewer system for the Greater Copenhagen area covers an area of 4460 ha contributing to the runoff. The total area serves in total 8 municipalities, however it is dominated by the areas in the City of Copenhagen proper. The catchments merge into interceptors, which feed two large treatment plants. The effluent from the two treatment plants discharges during dry weather to Oresund, the sound between Denmark and Sweden. This large system has been analysed for selected scenarios with respect to handling runoff in an optimal way in order to minimise the loads on the most sensitive receiving waters and optimising treatment plant performance.

  9. SDP_mharwi