WorldWideScience

Sample records for satellite time series

  1. Incorporating Satellite Time-Series Data into Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson

    2008-01-01

    In situ time series observations have provided a multi-decadal view of long-term changes in ocean biology. These observations are sufficiently reliable to enable discernment of even relatively small changes, and provide continuous information on a host of variables. Their key drawback is their limited domain. Satellite observations from ocean color sensors do not suffer the drawback of domain, and simultaneously view the global oceans. This attribute lends credence to their use in global and regional model validation and data assimilation. We focus on these applications using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model. The enhancement of the satellite data using data assimilation is featured and the limitation of tongterm satellite data sets is also discussed.

  2. Satellite image time series simulation for environmental monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Tao

    2014-11-01

    The performance of environmental monitoring heavily depends on the availability of consecutive observation data and it turns out an increasing demand in remote sensing community for satellite image data in the sufficient resolution with respect to both spatial and temporal requirements, which appear to be conflictive and hard to tune tradeoffs. Multiple constellations could be a solution if without concerning cost, and thus it is so far interesting but very challenging to develop a method which can simultaneously improve both spatial and temporal details. There are some research efforts to deal with the problem from various aspects, a type of approaches is to enhance the spatial resolution using techniques of super resolution, pan-sharpen etc. which can produce good visual effects, but mostly cannot preserve spectral signatures and result in losing analytical value. Another type is to fill temporal frequency gaps by adopting time interpolation, which actually doesn't increase informative context at all. In this paper we presented a novel method to generate satellite images in higher spatial and temporal details, which further enables satellite image time series simulation. Our method starts with a pair of high-low resolution data set, and then a spatial registration is done by introducing LDA model to map high and low resolution pixels correspondingly. Afterwards, temporal change information is captured through a comparison of low resolution time series data, and the temporal change is then projected onto high resolution data plane and assigned to each high resolution pixel referring the predefined temporal change patterns of each type of ground objects to generate a simulated high resolution data. A preliminary experiment shows that our method can simulate a high resolution data with a good accuracy. We consider the contribution of our method is to enable timely monitoring of temporal changes through analysis of low resolution images time series only, and usage of

  3. Discovering significant evolution patterns from satellite image time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petitjean, François; Masseglia, Florent; Gançarski, Pierre; Forestier, Germain

    2011-12-01

    Satellite Image Time Series (SITS) provide us with precious information on land cover evolution. By studying these series of images we can both understand the changes of specific areas and discover global phenomena that spread over larger areas. Changes that can occur throughout the sensing time can spread over very long periods and may have different start time and end time depending on the location, which complicates the mining and the analysis of series of images. This work focuses on frequent sequential pattern mining (FSPM) methods, since this family of methods fits the above-mentioned issues. This family of methods consists of finding the most frequent evolution behaviors, and is actually able to extract long-term changes as well as short term ones, whenever the change may start and end. However, applying FSPM methods to SITS implies confronting two main challenges, related to the characteristics of SITS and the domain's constraints. First, satellite images associate multiple measures with a single pixel (the radiometric levels of different wavelengths corresponding to infra-red, red, etc.), which makes the search space multi-dimensional and thus requires specific mining algorithms. Furthermore, the non evolving regions, which are the vast majority and overwhelm the evolving ones, challenge the discovery of these patterns. We propose a SITS mining framework that enables discovery of these patterns despite these constraints and characteristics. Our proposal is inspired from FSPM and provides a relevant visualization principle. Experiments carried out on 35 images sensed over 20 years show the proposed approach makes it possible to extract relevant evolution behaviors.

  4. Satellite Image Time Series Decomposition Based on EEMD

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    Yun-long Kong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Satellite Image Time Series (SITS have recently been of great interest due to the emerging remote sensing capabilities for Earth observation. Trend and seasonal components are two crucial elements of SITS. In this paper, a novel framework of SITS decomposition based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD is proposed. EEMD is achieved by sifting an ensemble of adaptive orthogonal components called Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs. EEMD is noise-assisted and overcomes the drawback of mode mixing in conventional Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD. Inspired by these advantages, the aim of this work is to employ EEMD to decompose SITS into IMFs and to choose relevant IMFs for the separation of seasonal and trend components. In a series of simulations, IMFs extracted by EEMD achieved a clear representation with physical meaning. The experimental results of 16-day compositions of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, and Global Environment Monitoring Index (GEMI time series with disturbance illustrated the effectiveness and stability of the proposed approach to monitoring tasks, such as applications for the detection of abrupt changes.

  5. ESTIMATING RELIABILITY OF DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE TIME SERIES DATA BASED ON STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z.-G. Zhou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Normally, the status of land cover is inherently dynamic and changing continuously on temporal scale. However, disturbances or abnormal changes of land cover — caused by such as forest fire, flood, deforestation, and plant diseases — occur worldwide at unknown times and locations. Timely detection and characterization of these disturbances is of importance for land cover monitoring. Recently, many time-series-analysis methods have been developed for near real-time or online disturbance detection, using satellite image time series. However, the detection results were only labelled with “Change/ No change” by most of the present methods, while few methods focus on estimating reliability (or confidence level of the detected disturbances in image time series. To this end, this paper propose a statistical analysis method for estimating reliability of disturbances in new available remote sensing image time series, through analysis of full temporal information laid in time series data. The method consists of three main steps. (1 Segmenting and modelling of historical time series data based on Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend (BFAST. (2 Forecasting and detecting disturbances in new time series data. (3 Estimating reliability of each detected disturbance using statistical analysis based on Confidence Interval (CI and Confidence Levels (CL. The method was validated by estimating reliability of disturbance regions caused by a recent severe flooding occurred around the border of Russia and China. Results demonstrated that the method can estimate reliability of disturbances detected in satellite image with estimation error less than 5% and overall accuracy up to 90%.

  6. Dimension Reduction of Multi-Spectral Satellite Image Time Series to Improve Deforestation Monitoring

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    Meng Lu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, sequential tests for detecting structural changes in time series have been adapted for deforestation monitoring using satellite data. The input time series of such sequential tests is typically a vegetation index (e.g., NDVI, which uses two or three bands and ignores all other bands. Being limited to a vegetation index will not benefit from the richer spectral information provided by newly launched satellites and will bring two bottle-necks for deforestation monitoring. Firstly, it is hard to select a suitable vegetation index a priori. Secondly, a single vegetation index is typically affected by seasonal signals, noise and other natural dynamics, which decrease its power for deforestation detection. A novel multispectral time series change monitoring method that combines dimension reduction methods with a sequential hypothesis test is proposed to address these limitations. For each location, the proposed method automatically chooses a “suitable” index for deforestation monitoring. To demonstrate our approach, we implemented it in two study areas: a dry tropical forest in Bolivia (time series length: 444 with strong seasonality and a moist tropical forest in Brazil (time series length: 225 with almost no seasonality. Our method significantly improves accuracy in the presence of strong seasonality, in particular the temporal lag between disturbance and its detection.

  7. Monitoring Seasonal Evapotranspiration in Vulnerable Agriculture using Time Series VHSR Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Spyropoulos, Nicos V.; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2015-04-01

    The research work stems from the hypothesis that it is possible to perform an estimation of seasonal water needs of olive tree farms under drought periods by cross correlating high spatial, spectral and temporal resolution (~monthly) of satellite data, acquired at well defined time intervals of the phenological cycle of crops, with ground-truth information simultaneously applied during the image acquisitions. The present research is for the first time, demonstrating the coordinated efforts of space engineers, satellite mission control planners, remote sensing scientists and ground teams to record at specific time intervals of the phenological cycle of trees from ground "zero" and from 770 km above the Earth's surface, the status of plants for subsequent cross correlation and analysis regarding the estimation of the seasonal evapotranspiration in vulnerable agricultural environment. The ETo and ETc derived by Penman-Montieth equation and reference Kc tables, compared with new ETd using the Kc extracted from the time series satellite data. Several vegetation indices were also used especially the RedEdge and the chlorophyll one based on WorldView-2 RedEdge and second NIR bands to relate the tree status with water and nutrition needs. Keywords: Evapotransipration, Very High Spatial Resolution - VHSR, time series, remote sensing, vulnerability, agriculture, vegetation indeces.

  8. A method for generating high resolution satellite image time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Tao

    2014-10-01

    There is an increasing demand for satellite remote sensing data with both high spatial and temporal resolution in many applications. But it still is a challenge to simultaneously improve spatial resolution and temporal frequency due to the technical limits of current satellite observation systems. To this end, much R&D efforts have been ongoing for years and lead to some successes roughly in two aspects, one includes super resolution, pan-sharpen etc. methods which can effectively enhance the spatial resolution and generate good visual effects, but hardly preserve spectral signatures and result in inadequate analytical value, on the other hand, time interpolation is a straight forward method to increase temporal frequency, however it increase little informative contents in fact. In this paper we presented a novel method to simulate high resolution time series data by combing low resolution time series data and a very small number of high resolution data only. Our method starts with a pair of high and low resolution data set, and then a spatial registration is done by introducing LDA model to map high and low resolution pixels correspondingly. Afterwards, temporal change information is captured through a comparison of low resolution time series data, and then projected onto the high resolution data plane and assigned to each high resolution pixel according to the predefined temporal change patterns of each type of ground objects. Finally the simulated high resolution data is generated. A preliminary experiment shows that our method can simulate a high resolution data with a reasonable accuracy. The contribution of our method is to enable timely monitoring of temporal changes through analysis of time sequence of low resolution images only, and usage of costly high resolution data can be reduces as much as possible, and it presents a highly effective way to build up an economically operational monitoring solution for agriculture, forest, land use investigation

  9. Time series analysis of infrared satellite data for detecting thermal anomalies: a hybrid approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koeppen, W. C.; Pilger, E.; Wright, R.

    2011-07-01

    We developed and tested an automated algorithm that analyzes thermal infrared satellite time series data to detect and quantify the excess energy radiated from thermal anomalies such as active volcanoes. Our algorithm enhances the previously developed MODVOLC approach, a simple point operation, by adding a more complex time series component based on the methods of the Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) algorithm. Using test sites at Anatahan and Kīlauea volcanoes, the hybrid time series approach detected ~15% more thermal anomalies than MODVOLC with very few, if any, known false detections. We also tested gas flares in the Cantarell oil field in the Gulf of Mexico as an end-member scenario representing very persistent thermal anomalies. At Cantarell, the hybrid algorithm showed only a slight improvement, but it did identify flares that were undetected by MODVOLC. We estimate that at least 80 MODIS images for each calendar month are required to create good reference images necessary for the time series analysis of the hybrid algorithm. The improved performance of the new algorithm over MODVOLC will result in the detection of low temperature thermal anomalies that will be useful in improving our ability to document Earth's volcanic eruptions, as well as detecting low temperature thermal precursors to larger eruptions.

  10. Intercomparison of Satellite Derived Gravity Time Series with Inferred Gravity Time Series from TOPEX/POSEIDON Sea Surface Heights and Climatological Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, C.; Au, A.; Klosko, S.; Chao, B.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The upcoming GRACE mission promises to open a window on details of the global mass budget that will have remarkable clarity, but it will not directly answer the question of what the state of the Earth's mass budget is over the critical last quarter of the 20th century. To address that problem we must draw upon existing technologies such as SLR, DORIS, and GPS, and climate modeling runs in order to improve our understanding. Analysis of long-period geopotential changes based on SLR and DORIS tracking has shown that addition of post 1996 satellite tracking data has a significant impact on the recovered zonal rates and long-period tides. Interannual effects such as those causing the post 1996 anomalies must be better characterized before refined estimates of the decadal period changes in the geopotential can be derived from the historical database of satellite tracking. A possible cause of this anomaly is variations in ocean mass distribution, perhaps associated with the recent large El Nino/La Nina. In this study, a low-degree spherical harmonic gravity time series derived from satellite tracking is compared with a TOPEX/POSEIDON-derived sea surface height time series. Corrections for atmospheric mass effects, continental hydrology, snowfall accumulation, and ocean steric model predictions will be considered.

  11. AUTOMATIC CLOUD DETECTION FROM MULTI-TEMPORAL SATELLITE IMAGES: TOWARDS THE USE OF PLÉIADES TIME SERIES

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    N. Champion

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Contrary to aerial images, satellite images are often affected by the presence of clouds. Identifying and removing these clouds is one of the primary steps to perform when processing satellite images, as they may alter subsequent procedures such as atmospheric corrections, DSM production or land cover classification. The main goal of this paper is to present the cloud detection approach, developed at the French Mapping agency. Our approach is based on the availability of multi-temporal satellite images (i.e. time series that generally contain between 5 and 10 images and is based on a region-growing procedure. Seeds (corresponding to clouds are firstly extracted through a pixel-to-pixel comparison between the images contained in time series (the presence of a cloud is here assumed to be related to a high variation of reflectance between two images. Clouds are then delineated finely using a dedicated region-growing algorithm. The method, originally designed for panchromatic SPOT5-HRS images, is tested in this paper using time series with 9 multi-temporal satellite images. Our preliminary experiments show the good performances of our method. In a near future, the method will be applied to Pléiades images, acquired during the in-flight commissioning phase of the satellite (launched at the end of 2011. In that context, this is a particular goal of this paper to show to which extent and in which way our method can be adapted to this kind of imagery.

  12. The CACAO Method for Smoothing, Gap Filling, and Characterizing Seasonal Anomalies in Satellite Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verger, Aleixandre; Baret, F.; Weiss, M.; Kandasamy, S.; Vermote, E.

    2013-01-01

    Consistent, continuous, and long time series of global biophysical variables derived from satellite data are required for global change research. A novel climatology fitting approach called CACAO (Consistent Adjustment of the Climatology to Actual Observations) is proposed to reduce noise and fill gaps in time series by scaling and shifting the seasonal climatological patterns to the actual observations. The shift and scale CACAO parameters adjusted for each season allow quantifying shifts in the timing of seasonal phenology and inter-annual variations in magnitude as compared to the average climatology. CACAO was assessed first over simulated daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) time series with varying fractions of missing data and noise. Then, performances were analyzed over actual satellite LAI products derived from AVHRR Long-Term Data Record for the 1981-2000 period over the BELMANIP2 globally representative sample of sites. Comparison with two widely used temporal filtering methods-the asymmetric Gaussian (AG) model and the Savitzky-Golay (SG) filter as implemented in TIMESAT-revealed that CACAO achieved better performances for smoothing AVHRR time series characterized by high level of noise and frequent missing observations. The resulting smoothed time series captures well the vegetation dynamics and shows no gaps as compared to the 50-60% of still missing data after AG or SG reconstructions. Results of simulation experiments as well as confrontation with actual AVHRR time series indicate that the proposed CACAO method is more robust to noise and missing data than AG and SG methods for phenology extraction.

  13. A graph-based approach to detect spatiotemporal dynamics in satellite image time series

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    Guttler, Fabio; Ienco, Dino; Nin, Jordi; Teisseire, Maguelonne; Poncelet, Pascal

    2017-08-01

    Enhancing the frequency of satellite acquisitions represents a key issue for Earth Observation community nowadays. Repeated observations are crucial for monitoring purposes, particularly when intra-annual process should be taken into account. Time series of images constitute a valuable source of information in these cases. The goal of this paper is to propose a new methodological framework to automatically detect and extract spatiotemporal information from satellite image time series (SITS). Existing methods dealing with such kind of data are usually classification-oriented and cannot provide information about evolutions and temporal behaviors. In this paper we propose a graph-based strategy that combines object-based image analysis (OBIA) with data mining techniques. Image objects computed at each individual timestamp are connected across the time series and generates a set of evolution graphs. Each evolution graph is associated to a particular area within the study site and stores information about its temporal evolution. Such information can be deeply explored at the evolution graph scale or used to compare the graphs and supply a general picture at the study site scale. We validated our framework on two study sites located in the South of France and involving different types of natural, semi-natural and agricultural areas. The results obtained from a Landsat SITS support the quality of the methodological approach and illustrate how the framework can be employed to extract and characterize spatiotemporal dynamics.

  14. MITRA Virtual laboratory for operative application of satellite time series for land degradation risk estimation

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    Nole, Gabriele; Scorza, Francesco; Lanorte, Antonio; Manzi, Teresa; Lasaponara, Rosa

    2015-04-01

    This paper aims to present the development of a tool to integrate time series from active and passive satellite sensors (such as of MODIS, Vegetation, Landsat, ASTER, COSMO, Sentinel) into a virtual laboratory to support studies on landscape and archaeological landscape, investigation on environmental changes, estimation and monitoring of natural and anthropogenic risks. The virtual laboratory is composed by both data and open source tools specifically developed for the above mentioned applications. Results obtained for investigations carried out using the implemented tools for monitoring land degradation issues and subtle changes ongoing on forestry and natural areas are herein presented. In detail MODIS, SPOT Vegetation and Landsat time series were analyzed comparing results of different statistical analyses and the results integrated with ancillary data and evaluated with field survey. The comparison of the outputs we obtained for the Basilicata Region from satellite data analyses and independent data sets clearly pointed out the reliability for the diverse change analyses we performed, at the pixel level, using MODIS, SPOT Vegetation and Landsat TM data. Next steps are going to be implemented to further advance the current Virtual Laboratory tools, by extending current facilities adding new computational algorithms and applying to other geographic regions. Acknowledgement This research was performed within the framework of the project PO FESR Basilicata 2007/2013 - Progetto di cooperazione internazionale MITRA "Remote Sensing tecnologies for Natural and Cultural heritage Degradation Monitoring for Preservation and valorization" funded by Basilicata Region Reference 1. A. Lanorte, R Lasaponara, M Lovallo, L Telesca 2014 Fisher-Shannon information plane analysis of SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series to characterize vegetation recovery after fire disturbance International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and

  15. Detection of land cover change using an Artificial Neural Network on a time-series of MODIS satellite data

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Olivier, JC

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is proposed to detect human-induced land cover change using a sliding window through a time-series of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite surface reflectance pixel values. Training...

  16. Automatic Detection of Clouds and Shadows Using High Resolution Satellite Image Time Series

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    Champion, Nicolas

    2016-06-01

    Detecting clouds and their shadows is one of the primaries steps to perform when processing satellite images because they may alter the quality of some products such as large-area orthomosaics. The main goal of this paper is to present the automatic method developed at IGN-France for detecting clouds and shadows in a sequence of satellite images. In our work, surface reflectance orthoimages are used. They were processed from initial satellite images using a dedicated software. The cloud detection step consists of a region-growing algorithm. Seeds are firstly extracted. For that purpose and for each input ortho-image to process, we select the other ortho-images of the sequence that intersect it. The pixels of the input ortho-image are secondly labelled seeds if the difference of reflectance (in the blue channel) with overlapping ortho-images is bigger than a given threshold. Clouds are eventually delineated using a region-growing method based on a radiometric and homogeneity criterion. Regarding the shadow detection, our method is based on the idea that a shadow pixel is darker when comparing to the other images of the time series. The detection is basically composed of three steps. Firstly, we compute a synthetic ortho-image covering the whole study area. Its pixels have a value corresponding to the median value of all input reflectance ortho-images intersecting at that pixel location. Secondly, for each input ortho-image, a pixel is labelled shadows if the difference of reflectance (in the NIR channel) with the synthetic ortho-image is below a given threshold. Eventually, an optional region-growing step may be used to refine the results. Note that pixels labelled clouds during the cloud detection are not used for computing the median value in the first step; additionally, the NIR input data channel is used to perform the shadow detection, because it appeared to better discriminate shadow pixels. The method was tested on times series of Landsat 8 and Pl

  17. AUTOMATIC DETECTION OF CLOUDS AND SHADOWS USING HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGE TIME SERIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Champion

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Detecting clouds and their shadows is one of the primaries steps to perform when processing satellite images because they may alter the quality of some products such as large-area orthomosaics. The main goal of this paper is to present the automatic method developed at IGN-France for detecting clouds and shadows in a sequence of satellite images. In our work, surface reflectance orthoimages are used. They were processed from initial satellite images using a dedicated software. The cloud detection step consists of a region-growing algorithm. Seeds are firstly extracted. For that purpose and for each input ortho-image to process, we select the other ortho-images of the sequence that intersect it. The pixels of the input ortho-image are secondly labelled seeds if the difference of reflectance (in the blue channel with overlapping ortho-images is bigger than a given threshold. Clouds are eventually delineated using a region-growing method based on a radiometric and homogeneity criterion. Regarding the shadow detection, our method is based on the idea that a shadow pixel is darker when comparing to the other images of the time series. The detection is basically composed of three steps. Firstly, we compute a synthetic ortho-image covering the whole study area. Its pixels have a value corresponding to the median value of all input reflectance ortho-images intersecting at that pixel location. Secondly, for each input ortho-image, a pixel is labelled shadows if the difference of reflectance (in the NIR channel with the synthetic ortho-image is below a given threshold. Eventually, an optional region-growing step may be used to refine the results. Note that pixels labelled clouds during the cloud detection are not used for computing the median value in the first step; additionally, the NIR input data channel is used to perform the shadow detection, because it appeared to better discriminate shadow pixels. The method was tested on times series of Landsat 8

  18. Object-Based Classification of Grasslands from High Resolution Satellite Image Time Series Using Gaussian Mean Map Kernels

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    Mailys Lopes

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the classification of grasslands using high resolution satellite image time series. Grasslands considered in this work are semi-natural elements in fragmented landscapes, i.e., they are heterogeneous and small elements. The first contribution of this study is to account for grassland heterogeneity while working at the object level by modeling its pixels distributions by a Gaussian distribution. To measure the similarity between two grasslands, a new kernel is proposed as a second contribution: the α -Gaussian mean kernel. It allows one to weight the influence of the covariance matrix when comparing two Gaussian distributions. This kernel is introduced in support vector machines for the supervised classification of grasslands from southwest France. A dense intra-annual multispectral time series of the Formosat-2 satellite is used for the classification of grasslands’ management practices, while an inter-annual NDVI time series of Formosat-2 is used for old and young grasslands’ discrimination. Results are compared to other existing pixel- and object-based approaches in terms of classification accuracy and processing time. The proposed method is shown to be a good compromise between processing speed and classification accuracy. It can adapt to the classification constraints, and it encompasses several similarity measures known in the literature. It is appropriate for the classification of small and heterogeneous objects such as grasslands.

  19. Tree Species Classification in Temperate Forests Using Formosat-2 Satellite Image Time Series

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    David Sheeren

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Mapping forest composition is a major concern for forest management, biodiversity assessment and for understanding the potential impacts of climate change on tree species distribution. In this study, the suitability of a dense high spatial resolution multispectral Formosat-2 satellite image time-series (SITS to discriminate tree species in temperate forests is investigated. Based on a 17-date SITS acquired across one year, thirteen major tree species (8 broadleaves and 5 conifers are classified in a study area of southwest France. The performance of parametric (GMM and nonparametric (k-NN, RF, SVM methods are compared at three class hierarchy levels for different versions of the SITS: (i a smoothed noise-free version based on the Whittaker smoother; (ii a non-smoothed cloudy version including all the dates; (iii a non-smoothed noise-free version including only 14 dates. Noise refers to pixels contaminated by clouds and cloud shadows. The results of the 108 distinct classifications show a very high suitability of the SITS to identify the forest tree species based on phenological differences (average κ = 0 . 93 estimated by cross-validation based on 1235 field-collected plots. SVM is found to be the best classifier with very close results from the other classifiers. No clear benefit of removing noise by smoothing can be observed. Classification accuracy is even improved using the non-smoothed cloudy version of the SITS compared to the 14 cloud-free image time series. However conclusions of the results need to be considered with caution because of possible overfitting. Disagreements also appear between the maps produced by the classifiers for complex mixed forests, suggesting a higher classification uncertainty in these contexts. Our findings suggest that time-series data can be a good alternative to hyperspectral data for mapping forest types. It also demonstrates the potential contribution of the recently launched Sentinel-2 satellite for

  20. Mapping Impervious Surface Expansion using Medium-resolution Satellite Image Time Series: A Case Study in the Yangtze River Delta, China

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    Gao, Feng; DeColstoun, Eric Brown; Ma, Ronghua; Weng, Qihao; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Chen, Jin; Pan, Yaozhong; Song, Conghe

    2012-01-01

    Cities have been expanding rapidly worldwide, especially over the past few decades. Mapping the dynamic expansion of impervious surface in both space and time is essential for an improved understanding of the urbanization process, land-cover and land-use change, and their impacts on the environment. Landsat and other medium-resolution satellites provide the necessary spatial details and temporal frequency for mapping impervious surface expansion over the past four decades. Since the US Geological Survey opened the historical record of the Landsat image archive for free access in 2008, the decades-old bottleneck of data limitation has gone. Remote-sensing scientists are now rich with data, and the challenge is how to make best use of this precious resource. In this article, we develop an efficient algorithm to map the continuous expansion of impervious surface using a time series of four decades of medium-resolution satellite images. The algorithm is based on a supervised classification of the time-series image stack using a decision tree. Each imerpervious class represents urbanization starting in a different image. The algorithm also allows us to remove inconsistent training samples because impervious expansion is not reversible during the study period. The objective is to extract a time series of complete and consistent impervious surface maps from a corresponding times series of images collected from multiple sensors, and with a minimal amount of image preprocessing effort. The approach was tested in the lower Yangtze River Delta region, one of the fastest urban growth areas in China. Results from nearly four decades of medium-resolution satellite data from the Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) and China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) show a consistent urbanization process that is consistent with economic development plans and policies. The time-series impervious spatial extent maps derived

  1. HiTempo: a platform for time-series analysis of remote-sensing satellite data in a high-performance computing environment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van den Bergh, F

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Course resolution earth observation satellites offer large data sets with daily observations at global scales. These data sets represent a rich resource that, because of the high acquisition rate, allows the application of time-series analysis...

  2. Estimating inter-annual variability in winter wheat sowing dates from satellite time series in Camargue, France

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    Manfron, Giacinto; Delmotte, Sylvestre; Busetto, Lorenzo; Hossard, Laure; Ranghetti, Luigi; Brivio, Pietro Alessandro; Boschetti, Mirco

    2017-05-01

    Crop simulation models are commonly used to forecast the performance of cropping systems under different hypotheses of change. Their use on a regional scale is generally constrained, however, by a lack of information on the spatial and temporal variability of environment-related input variables (e.g., soil) and agricultural practices (e.g., sowing dates) that influence crop yields. Satellite remote sensing data can shed light on such variability by providing timely information on crop dynamics and conditions over large areas. This paper proposes a method for analyzing time series of MODIS satellite data in order to estimate the inter-annual variability of winter wheat sowing dates. A rule-based method was developed to automatically identify a reliable sample of winter wheat field time series, and to infer the corresponding sowing dates. The method was designed for a case study in the Camargue region (France), where winter wheat is characterized by vernalization, as in other temperate regions. The detection criteria were chosen on the grounds of agronomic expertise and by analyzing high-confidence time-series vegetation index profiles for winter wheat. This automatic method identified the target crop on more than 56% (four-year average) of the cultivated areas, with low commission errors (11%). It also captured the seasonal variability in sowing dates with errors of ±8 and ±16 days in 46% and 66% of cases, respectively. Extending the analysis to the years 2002-2012 showed that sowing in the Camargue was usually done on or around November 1st (±4 days). Comparing inter-annual sowing date variability with the main local agro-climatic drivers showed that the type of preceding crop and the weather conditions during the summer season before the wheat sowing had a prominent role in influencing winter wheat sowing dates.

  3. An estimation model of population in China using time series DMSP night-time satellite imagery from 2002-2010

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    Zhang, Xiaoyong; Zhang, Zhijie; Chang, Yuguang; Chen, Zhengchao

    2015-12-01

    Accurate data on the spatial distribution and potential growth estimation of human population are playing pivotal role in addressing and mitigating heavy lose caused by earthquake. Traditional demographic data is limited in its spatial resolution and is extremely hard to update. With the accessibility of massive DMSP/OLS night time imagery, it is possible to model population distribution at the county level across China. In order to compare and improve the continuity and consistency of time-series DMSP night-time satellite imagery obtained by different satellites in same year or different years by the same satellite from 2002-2010, normalized method was deployed for the inter-correction among imageries. And we referred to the reference F162007 Jixi city, whose social-economic has been relatively stable. Through binomial model, with average R2 0.90, then derived the correction factor of each year. The normalization obviously improved consistency comparing to previous data, which enhanced the correspondent accuracy of model. Then conducted the model of population density between average night-time light intensity in eight-economic districts. According to the two parameters variation law of consecutive years, established the prediction model of next following years with R2of slope and constant typically 0.85 to 0.95 in different regions. To validate the model, taking the year of 2005 as example, retrieved quantitatively population distribution in per square kilometer based on the model, then compared the results to the statistical data based on census, the difference of the result is acceptable. In summary, the estimation model facilitates the quick estimation and prediction in relieving the damage to people, which is significant in decision-making.

  4. MODVOLC2: A Hybrid Time Series Analysis for Detecting Thermal Anomalies Applied to Thermal Infrared Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koeppen, W. C.; Wright, R.; Pilger, E.

    2009-12-01

    We developed and tested a new, automated algorithm, MODVOLC2, which analyzes thermal infrared satellite time series data to detect and quantify the excess energy radiated from thermal anomalies such as active volcanoes, fires, and gas flares. MODVOLC2 combines two previously developed algorithms, a simple point operation algorithm (MODVOLC) and a more complex time series analysis (Robust AVHRR Techniques, or RAT) to overcome the limitations of using each approach alone. MODVOLC2 has four main steps: (1) it uses the original MODVOLC algorithm to process the satellite data on a pixel-by-pixel basis and remove thermal outliers, (2) it uses the remaining data to calculate reference and variability images for each calendar month, (3) it compares the original satellite data and any newly acquired data to the reference images normalized by their variability, and it detects pixels that fall outside the envelope of normal thermal behavior, (4) it adds any pixels detected by MODVOLC to those detected in the time series analysis. Using test sites at Anatahan and Kilauea volcanoes, we show that MODVOLC2 was able to detect ~15% more thermal anomalies than using MODVOLC alone, with very few, if any, known false detections. Using gas flares from the Cantarell oil field in the Gulf of Mexico, we show that MODVOLC2 provided results that were unattainable using a time series-only approach. Some thermal anomalies (e.g., Cantarell oil field flares) are so persistent that an additional, semi-automated 12-µm correction must be applied in order to correctly estimate both the number of anomalies and the total excess radiance being emitted by them. Although all available data should be included to make the best possible reference and variability images necessary for the MODVOLC2, we estimate that at least 80 images per calendar month are required to generate relatively good statistics from which to run MODVOLC2, a condition now globally met by a decade of MODIS observations. We also found

  5. A Least Square Approach for Joining Persistent Scatterer InSAR Time Series Acquired by Different Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro Cuenca, Miguel; Esfahany, Sami Samiei; Hanssen, Ramon F.

    2010-12-01

    Persistent scatterer Radar Interferometry (PSI) can provide with a wealth of information on surface motion. These methods overcome the major limitations of the antecessor technique, interferometric SAR (InSAR), such as atmospheric disturbances, by detecting the scatterers which are slightly affected by noise. The time span that surface deformation processes are observed is limited by the satellite lifetime, which is usually less than 10 years. However most of deformation phenomena last longer. In order to fully monitor and comprehend the observed signal, acquisitions from different sensors can be merged. This is a complex task for one main reason. PSI methods provide with estimations that are relative in time to one of the acquisitions which is referred to as master or reference image. Therefore, time series acquired by different sensors will have different reference images and cannot be directly compared or joint unless they are set to the same time reference system. In global terms, the operation of translating from one to another reference systems consist of calculating a vertical offset, which is the total deformation that occurs between the two master times. To estimate this offset, different strategies can be applied, for example, using additional data such as leveling or GPS measurements. In this contribution we propose to use a least squares to merge PSI time series without any ancillary information. This method treats the time series individually, i.e. per PS, and requires some knowledge of the deformation signal, for example, if a polynomial would fairly describe the expected behavior. To test the proposed approach, we applied it to the southern Netherlands, where the surface is affected by ground water processes in abandoned mines. The time series were obtained after processing images provided by ERS1/2 and Envisat. The results were validated using in-situ water measurements, which show very high correlation with deformation time series.

  6. Development of satellite green vegetation fraction time series for use in mesoscale modeling: application to the European heat wave 2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Joakim Refslund; Dellwik, Ebba; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2014-01-01

    A method is presented for development of satellite green vegetation fraction (GVF) time series for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GVF data is in the WRF model used to describe the temporal evolution of many land surface parameters, in addition to the evolution of veg...

  7. Detecting settlement expansion using hyper-temporal SAR time-series

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kleynhans, W

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The detection of new informal settlements in South Africa using time-series data derived from coarse resolution satellite imagery has recently been an active area of research. Most of the previous methods presented using hyper-temporal satellite...

  8. Normalization of time-series satellite reflectance data to a standard sun-target-sensor geometry using a semi-empirical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yongguang; Li, Chuanrong; Ma, Lingling; Tang, Lingli; Wang, Ning; Zhou, Chuncheng; Qian, Yonggang

    2017-10-01

    Time series of satellite reflectance data have been widely used to characterize environmental phenomena, describe trends in vegetation dynamics and study climate change. However, several sensors with wide spatial coverage and high observation frequency are usually designed to have large field of view (FOV), which cause variations in the sun-targetsensor geometry in time-series reflectance data. In this study, on the basis of semiempirical kernel-driven BRDF model, a new semi-empirical model was proposed to normalize the sun-target-sensor geometry of remote sensing image. To evaluate the proposed model, bidirectional reflectance under different canopy growth conditions simulated by Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART) model were used. The semi-empirical model was first fitted by using all simulated bidirectional reflectance. Experimental result showed a good fit between the bidirectional reflectance estimated by the proposed model and the simulated value. Then, MODIS time-series reflectance data was normalized to a common sun-target-sensor geometry by the proposed model. The experimental results showed the proposed model yielded good fits between the observed and estimated values. The noise-like fluctuations in time-series reflectance data was also reduced after the sun-target-sensor normalization process.

  9. SPATIOTEMPORAL VISUALIZATION OF TIME-SERIES SATELLITE-DERIVED CO2 FLUX DATA USING VOLUME RENDERING AND GPU-BASED INTERPOLATION ON A CLOUD-DRIVEN DIGITAL EARTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The ocean carbon cycle has a significant influence on global climate, and is commonly evaluated using time-series satellite-derived CO2 flux data. Location-aware and globe-based visualization is an important technique for analyzing and presenting the evolution of climate change. To achieve realistic simulation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ocean carbon, a cloud-driven digital earth platform is developed to support the interactive analysis and display of multi-geospatial data, and an original visualization method based on our digital earth is proposed to demonstrate the spatiotemporal variations of carbon sinks and sources using time-series satellite data. Specifically, a volume rendering technique using half-angle slicing and particle system is implemented to dynamically display the released or absorbed CO2 gas. To enable location-aware visualization within the virtual globe, we present a 3D particlemapping algorithm to render particle-slicing textures onto geospace. In addition, a GPU-based interpolation framework using CUDA during real-time rendering is designed to obtain smooth effects in both spatial and temporal dimensions. To demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed method, a series of satellite data is applied to simulate the air-sea carbon cycle in the China Sea. The results show that the suggested strategies provide realistic simulation effects and acceptable interactive performance on the digital earth.

  10. Evaluation of Multiple Kernel Learning Algorithms for Crop Mapping Using Satellite Image Time-Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niazmardi, S.; Safari, A.; Homayouni, S.

    2017-09-01

    Crop mapping through classification of Satellite Image Time-Series (SITS) data can provide very valuable information for several agricultural applications, such as crop monitoring, yield estimation, and crop inventory. However, the SITS data classification is not straightforward. Because different images of a SITS data have different levels of information regarding the classification problems. Moreover, the SITS data is a four-dimensional data that cannot be classified using the conventional classification algorithms. To address these issues in this paper, we presented a classification strategy based on Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) algorithms for SITS data classification. In this strategy, initially different kernels are constructed from different images of the SITS data and then they are combined into a composite kernel using the MKL algorithms. The composite kernel, once constructed, can be used for the classification of the data using the kernel-based classification algorithms. We compared the computational time and the classification performances of the proposed classification strategy using different MKL algorithms for the purpose of crop mapping. The considered MKL algorithms are: MKL-Sum, SimpleMKL, LPMKL and Group-Lasso MKL algorithms. The experimental tests of the proposed strategy on two SITS data sets, acquired by SPOT satellite sensors, showed that this strategy was able to provide better performances when compared to the standard classification algorithm. The results also showed that the optimization method of the used MKL algorithms affects both the computational time and classification accuracy of this strategy.

  11. Estimation of time-series properties of gourd observed solar irradiance data using cloud properties derived from satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, T.; Nohara, D.

    2017-12-01

    The shorter temporal scale variation in the downward solar irradiance at the ground level (DSI) is not understood well because researches in the shorter-scale variation in the DSI is based on the ground observation and ground observation stations are located coarsely. Use of dataset derived from satellite observation will overcome such defect. DSI data and MODIS cloud properties product are analyzed simultaneously. Three metrics: mean, standard deviation and sample entropy, are used to evaluate time-series properties of the DSI. Three metrics are computed from two-hours time-series centered at the observation time of MODIS over the ground observation stations. We apply the regression methods to design prediction models of each three metrics from cloud properties. The validation of the model accuracy show that mean and standard deviation are predicted with a higher degree of accuracy and that the accuracy of prediction of sample entropy, which represents the complexity of time-series, is not high. One of causes of lower prediction skill of sample entropy is the resolution of the MODIS cloud properties. Higher sample entropy is corresponding to the rapid fluctuation, which is caused by the small and unordered cloud. It seems that such clouds isn't retrieved well.

  12. Comparison of Eight Techniques for Reconstructing Multi-Satellite Sensor Time-Series NDVI Data Sets in the Heihe River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liying Geng

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available More than 20 techniques have been developed to de-noise time-series vegetation index data from different satellite sensors to reconstruct long time-series data sets. Although many studies have compared Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI noise-reduction techniques, few studies have compared these techniques systematically and comprehensively. This study tested eight techniques for smoothing different vegetation types using different types of multi-temporal NDVI data (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR (Global Inventory Modeling and Map Studies (GIMMS and Pathfinder AVHRR Land (PAL, Satellite Pour l’ Observation de la Terre (SPOT VEGETATION (VGT, and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS (Terra with the ultimate purpose of determining the best reconstruction technique for each type of vegetation captured with four satellite sensors. These techniques include the modified best index slope extraction (M-BISE technique, the Savitzky-Golay (S-G technique, the mean value iteration filter (MVI technique, the asymmetric Gaussian (A-G technique, the double logistic (D-L technique, the changing-weight filter (CW technique, the interpolation for data reconstruction (IDR technique, and the Whittaker smoother (WS technique. These techniques were evaluated by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC. The results indicate that the S-G, CW, and WS techniques perform better than the other tested techniques, while the IDR, M-BISE, and MVI techniques performed worse than the other techniques. The best de-noise technique varies with different vegetation types and NDVI data sources. The S-G performs best in most situations. In addition, the CW and WS are effective techniques that were exceeded only by the S-G technique. The assessment results are consistent in terms of the three evaluation indexes for GIMMS, PAL, and SPOT data in the study

  13. Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks for Online Disturbance Detection in Satellite Image Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Long Kong

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A satellite image time series (SITS contains a significant amount of temporal information. By analysing this type of data, the pattern of the changes in the object of concern can be explored. The natural change in the Earth’s surface is relatively slow and exhibits a pronounced pattern. Some natural events (for example, fires, floods, plant diseases, and insect pests and human activities (for example, deforestation and urbanisation will disturb this pattern and cause a relatively profound change on the Earth’s surface. These events are usually referred to as disturbances. However, disturbances in ecosystems are not easy to detect from SITS data, because SITS contain combined information on disturbances, phenological variations and noise in remote sensing data. In this paper, a novel framework is proposed for online disturbance detection from SITS. The framework is based on long short-term memory (LSTM networks. First, LSTM networks are trained by historical SITS. The trained LSTM networks are then used to predict new time series data. Last, the predicted data are compared with real data, and the noticeable deviations reveal disturbances. Experimental results using 16-day compositions of the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MOD13Q1 illustrate the effectiveness and stability of the proposed approach for online disturbance detection.

  14. Time series for water levels in virtual gauge stations in the Amazon basin using satellite radar altimetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Gabriel León Hernández

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Using satellite altimeter radar technology for monitoring changes in water levels at continental scale is a relatively recent ad- vance. Several studies have demonstrated the interest being shown in applying this technology to monitoring the hydrographic patterns of large-scale basins worldwide. The current study presents the inference of time series representing changes in water le- vel for bodies of water by defining virtual gauge stations deduced for two very different rivers in terms of their biophysical and to- pographic characteristics; the two rivers were the Rio Negro in the Brazilian Amazon Basin and the Caqueta River on the Colombian side. The differences between the two rivers revealed the limits of satellite radar altimeter when applied to continental waters (±20cm and ±40 cm precision for Río Negro and Río Caquetá, respectively. However, applying this technology seems very promising, since new missions have been scheduled to be put into orbit by the end of 2008.

  15. Tropical Forest Monitoring in Southeast Asia Using Remotely Sensed Optical Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grogan, Kenneth Joseph

    of forest cover using satellite remote sensing technology. Recently, there has been a shift in data protection policy where rich archives of satellite imagery are now freely available. This has spurred a new era in satellite-based forest monitoring leading to advancements in optical time series processing...... markets. At the Landsat 30-m resolution, annual time series coupled with linear segmentation using LandTrendr was found to be an effective approach for monitoring forest disturbance, with moderate to high accuracies, depending on forest type. At the MODIS 250-m resolution, intra-annual time series...... global rubber markets can be linked to forest cover change, the effects of land policy in Cambodia, and beyond, have also had a major influence. It remains to be seen if intervention initiatives such as REDD+ can materialise over the coming years to make a meaningful contribution to tropical forest...

  16. Mapping air temperature using time series analysis of LST : The SINTESI approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alfieri, S.M.; De Lorenzi, F.; Menenti, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a new procedure to map time series of air temperature (Ta) at fine spatial resolution using time series analysis of satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) observations. The method assumes that air temperature is known at a single (reference) location such as in gridded

  17. Time-Series Analysis: A Cautionary Tale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damadeo, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Time-series analysis has often been a useful tool in atmospheric science for deriving long-term trends in various atmospherically important parameters (e.g., temperature or the concentration of trace gas species). In particular, time-series analysis has been repeatedly applied to satellite datasets in order to derive the long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, which is a critical atmospheric constituent. However, many of the potential pitfalls relating to the non-uniform sampling of the datasets were often ignored and the results presented by the scientific community have been unknowingly biased. A newly developed and more robust application of this technique is applied to the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 7.0 ozone dataset and the previous biases and newly derived trends are presented.

  18. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project H-Series climate data record product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Alisa H.; Knapp, Kenneth R.; Inamdar, Anand; Hankins, William; Rossow, William B.

    2018-03-01

    This paper describes the new global long-term International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) H-series climate data record (CDR). The H-series data contain a suite of level 2 and 3 products for monitoring the distribution and variation of cloud and surface properties to better understand the effects of clouds on climate, the radiation budget, and the global hydrologic cycle. This product is currently available for public use and is derived from both geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite imaging radiometers with common visible and infrared (IR) channels. The H-series data currently span July 1983 to December 2009 with plans for continued production to extend the record to the present with regular updates. The H-series data are the longest combined geostationary and polar orbiter satellite-based CDR of cloud properties. Access to the data is provided in network common data form (netCDF) and archived by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) under the satellite Climate Data Record Program (https://doi.org/10.7289/V5QZ281S" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.7289/V5QZ281S). The basic characteristics, history, and evolution of the dataset are presented herein with particular emphasis on and discussion of product changes between the H-series and the widely used predecessor D-series product which also spans from July 1983 through December 2009. Key refinements included in the ISCCP H-series CDR are based on improved quality control measures, modified ancillary inputs, higher spatial resolution input and output products, calibration refinements, and updated documentation and metadata to bring the H-series product into compliance with existing standards for climate data records.

  19. Unsupervised land cover change detection: meaningful sequential time series analysis

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Salmon, BP

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available An automated land cover change detection method is proposed that uses coarse spatial resolution hyper-temporal earth observation satellite time series data. The study compared three different unsupervised clustering approaches that operate on short...

  20. Evolution of stratospheric ozone and water vapour time series studied with satellite measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jones

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The long term evolution of stratospheric ozone and water vapour has been investigated by extending satellite time series to April 2008. For ozone, we examine monthly average ozone values from various satellite data sets for nine latitude and altitude bins covering 60° S to 60° N and 20–45 km and covering the time period of 1979–2008. Data are from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE I+II, the HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE, the Solar BackscatterUltraViolet-2 (SBUV/2 instrument, the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR, the Optical Spectrograph InfraRed Imager System (OSIRIS, and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartograpY (SCIAMACHY. Monthly ozone anomalies are calculated by utilising a linear regression model, which also models the solar, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO, and seasonal cycle contributions. Individual instrument ozone anomalies are combined producing an all instrument average. Assuming a turning point of 1997 and that the all instrument average is represented by good instrumental long term stability, the largest statistically significant ozone declines (at two sigma from 1979–1997 are seen at the mid-latitudes between 35 and 45 km, namely −7.2%±0.9%/decade in the Northern Hemisphere and −7.1%±0.9%/in the Southern Hemisphere. Furthermore, for the period 1997 to 2008 we find that the same locations show the largest ozone recovery (+1.4% and +0.8%/decade respectively compared to other global regions, although the estimated trend model errors indicate that the trend estimates are not significantly different from a zero trend at the 2 sigma level. An all instrument average is also constructed from water vapour anomalies during 1991–2008, using the SAGE II, HALOE, SMR, and the Microwave Limb Sounder (Aura/MLS measurements. We report that the decrease in water vapour values after 2001 slows down around 2004–2005 in the lower tropical stratosphere (20–25 km and has even

  1. Monitoring vegetation recovery in fire-affected areas using temporal profiles of spectral signal from time series MODIS and LANDSAT satellite images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgopoulou, Danai; Koutsias, Nikos

    2015-04-01

    Vegetation phenology is an important element of vegetation characteristics that can be useful in vegetation monitoring especially when satellite remote sensing observations are used. In that sense temporal profiles extracted from spectral signal of time series MODIS and LANDSAT satellite images can be used to characterize vegetation phenology and thus to be helpful for monitoring vegetation recovery in fire-affected areas. The aim of this study is to explore the vegetation recovery pattern of the catastrophic wildfires that occurred in Peloponnisos, southern Greece, in 2007. These fires caused the loss of 67 lives and were recognized as the most extreme natural disaster in the country's recent history. Satellite remote sensing data from MODIS and LANDSAT satellites in the period from 2000 to 2014 were acquired and processed to extract the temporal profiles of the spectral signal for selected areas within the fire-affected areas. This dataset and time period analyzed together with the time that these fires occurred gave the opportunity to create temporal profiles seven years before and seven years after the fire. The different scale of the data used gave us the chance to understand how vegetation phenology and therefore the recovery patterns are influenced by the spatial resolution of the satellite data used. Different metrics linked to key phenological events have been created and used to assess vegetation recovery in the fire-affected areas. Our analysis was focused in the main land cover types that were mostly affected by the 2007 wildland fires. Based on CORINE land-cover maps these were agricultural lands highly interspersed with large areas of natural vegetation followed by sclerophyllous vegetation, transitional woodland shrubs, complex cultivation patterns and olive groves. Apart of the use of the original spectral data we estimated and used vegetation indices commonly found in vegetation studies as well as in burned area mapping studies. In this study we

  2. Remote-Sensing Time Series Analysis, a Vegetation Monitoring Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKellip, Rodney; Prados, Donald; Ryan, Robert; Ross, Kenton; Spruce, Joseph; Gasser, Gerald; Greer, Randall

    2008-01-01

    The Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) is software, developed in MATLAB , which creates and displays high signal-to- noise Vegetation Indices imagery and other higher-level products derived from remotely sensed data. This tool enables automated, rapid, large-scale regional surveillance of crops, forests, and other vegetation. TSPT temporally processes high-revisit-rate satellite imagery produced by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and by other remote-sensing systems. Although MODIS imagery is acquired daily, cloudiness and other sources of noise can greatly reduce the effective temporal resolution. To improve cloud statistics, the TSPT combines MODIS data from multiple satellites (Aqua and Terra). The TSPT produces MODIS products as single time-frame and multitemporal change images, as time-series plots at a selected location, or as temporally processed image videos. Using the TSPT program, MODIS metadata is used to remove and/or correct bad and suspect data. Bad pixel removal, multiple satellite data fusion, and temporal processing techniques create high-quality plots and animated image video sequences that depict changes in vegetation greenness. This tool provides several temporal processing options not found in other comparable imaging software tools. Because the framework to generate and use other algorithms is established, small modifications to this tool will enable the use of a large range of remotely sensed data types. An effective remote-sensing crop monitoring system must be able to detect subtle changes in plant health in the earliest stages, before the effects of a disease outbreak or other adverse environmental conditions can become widespread and devastating. The integration of the time series analysis tool with ground-based information, soil types, crop types, meteorological data, and crop growth models in a Geographic Information System, could provide the foundation for a large-area crop-surveillance system that could identify

  3. Spatio-temporal change detection from multidimensional arrays: Detecting deforestation from MODIS time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Meng; Pebesma, Edzer; Sanchez, Alber; Verbesselt, Jan

    2016-07-01

    Growing availability of long-term satellite imagery enables change modeling with advanced spatio-temporal statistical methods. Multidimensional arrays naturally match the structure of spatio-temporal satellite data and can provide a clean modeling process for complex spatio-temporal analysis over large datasets. Our study case illustrates the detection of breakpoints in MODIS imagery time series for land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon using the BFAST (Breaks For Additive Season and Trend) change detection framework. BFAST includes an Empirical Fluctuation Process (EFP) to alarm the change and a change point time locating process. We extend the EFP to account for the spatial autocorrelation between spatial neighbors and assess the effects of spatial correlation when applying BFAST on satellite image time series. In addition, we evaluate how sensitive EFP is to the assumption that its time series residuals are temporally uncorrelated, by modeling it as an autoregressive process. We use arrays as a unified data structure for the modeling process, R to execute the analysis, and an array database management system to scale computation. Our results point to BFAST as a robust approach against mild temporal and spatial correlation, to the use of arrays to ease the modeling process of spatio-temporal change, and towards communicable and scalable analysis.

  4. Aerosol Climate Time Series Evaluation In ESA Aerosol_cci

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popp, T.; de Leeuw, G.; Pinnock, S.

    2015-12-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Aerosol_cci (2010 - 2017) conducts intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors. By the end of 2015 full mission time series of 2 GCOS-required aerosol parameters are completely validated and released: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from dual view ATSR-2 / AATSR radiometers (3 algorithms, 1995 - 2012), and stratospheric extinction profiles from star occultation GOMOS spectrometer (2002 - 2012). Additionally, a 35-year multi-sensor time series of the qualitative Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) together with sensitivity information and an AAI model simulator is available. Complementary aerosol properties requested by GCOS are in a "round robin" phase, where various algorithms are inter-compared: fine mode AOD, mineral dust AOD (from the thermal IASI spectrometer), absorption information and aerosol layer height. As a quasi-reference for validation in few selected regions with sparse ground-based observations the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm for the POLDER instrument is used. Validation of first dataset versions (vs. AERONET, MAN) and inter-comparison to other satellite datasets (MODIS, MISR, SeaWIFS) proved the high quality of the available datasets comparable to other satellite retrievals and revealed needs for algorithm improvement (for example for higher AOD values) which were taken into account for a reprocessing. The datasets contain pixel level uncertainty estimates which are also validated. The paper will summarize and discuss the results of major reprocessing and validation conducted in 2015. The focus will be on the ATSR, GOMOS and IASI datasets. Pixel level uncertainties validation will be summarized and discussed including unknown components and their potential usefulness and limitations. Opportunities for time series extension with successor instruments of the Sentinel family will be described and the complementarity of the different satellite aerosol products

  5. Aerosol Climate Time Series in ESA Aerosol_cci

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popp, Thomas; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Pinnock, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Aerosol_cci (2010 - 2017) conducts intensive work to improve algorithms for the retrieval of aerosol information from European sensors. Meanwhile, full mission time series of 2 GCOS-required aerosol parameters are completely validated and released: Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from dual view ATSR-2 / AATSR radiometers (3 algorithms, 1995 - 2012), and stratospheric extinction profiles from star occultation GOMOS spectrometer (2002 - 2012). Additionally, a 35-year multi-sensor time series of the qualitative Absorbing Aerosol Index (AAI) together with sensitivity information and an AAI model simulator is available. Complementary aerosol properties requested by GCOS are in a "round robin" phase, where various algorithms are inter-compared: fine mode AOD, mineral dust AOD (from the thermal IASI spectrometer, but also from ATSR instruments and the POLDER sensor), absorption information and aerosol layer height. As a quasi-reference for validation in few selected regions with sparse ground-based observations the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm for the POLDER instrument is used. Validation of first dataset versions (vs. AERONET, MAN) and inter-comparison to other satellite datasets (MODIS, MISR, SeaWIFS) proved the high quality of the available datasets comparable to other satellite retrievals and revealed needs for algorithm improvement (for example for higher AOD values) which were taken into account for a reprocessing. The datasets contain pixel level uncertainty estimates which were also validated and improved in the reprocessing. For the three ATSR algorithms the use of an ensemble method was tested. The paper will summarize and discuss the status of dataset reprocessing and validation. The focus will be on the ATSR, GOMOS and IASI datasets. Pixel level uncertainties validation will be summarized and discussed including unknown components and their potential usefulness and limitations. Opportunities for time series extension

  6. Correcting orbital drift signal in the time series of AVHRR derived convective cloud fraction using rotated empirical orthogonal function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Devasthale

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR instruments onboard the series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA satellites offer the longest available meteorological data records from space. These satellites have drifted in orbit resulting in shifts in the local time sampling during the life span of the sensors onboard. Depending upon the amplitude of the diurnal cycle of the geophysical parameters derived, orbital drift may cause spurious trends in their time series. We investigate tropical deep convective clouds, which show pronounced diurnal cycle amplitude, to estimate an upper bound of the impact of orbital drift on their time series. We carry out a rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis (REOF and show that the REOFs are useful in delineating orbital drift signal and, more importantly, in subtracting this signal in the time series of convective cloud amount. These results will help facilitate the derivation of homogenized data series of cloud amount from NOAA satellite sensors and ultimately analyzing trends from them. However, we suggest detailed comparison of various methods and rigorous testing thereof applying final orbital drift corrections.

  7. Detecting land cover change using an extended Kalman filter on MODIS NDVI time-series data

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kleynhans, W

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available A method for detecting land cover change using NDVI time-series data derived from 500-m MODIS satellite data is proposed. The algorithm acts as a per-pixel change alarm and takes the NDVI time series of a 3 × 3 grid of MODIS pixels as the input...

  8. Programming a real-time operating system for satellite control applications Satellite Control Applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omer, M.; Anjum, O.; Suddle, M.R.

    2004-01-01

    With the realization of ideas like formation flights and multi-body space vehicles the demands on an attitude control system have become increasingly complex. Even in its most simplified form, the control system for a typical geostationary satellite has to run various supervisory functions along with determination and control algorithms side by side. Within each algorithm it has to employ multiple actuation and sensing mechanisms and service real time interrupts, for example, in the case of actuator saturation and sensor data fusion. This entails the idea of thread scheduling and program synchronization, tasks specifically meant for a real time OS. This paper explores the embedding of attitude determination and control loop within the framework of a real time operating system provided for TI's DSP C6xxx series. The paper details out the much functionality provided within the scaleable real time kernel and the analysis and configuration tools available, It goes on to describe a layered implementation stack associated with a typical control for Geo Stationary satellites. An application for control is then presented in which state of the art analysis tools are employed to view program threads, synchronization semaphores, hardware interrupts and data exchange pipes operating in real time. (author)

  9. TechEdSat Nano-Satellite Series Fact Sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murbach, Marcus; Martinez, Andres; Guarneros Luna, Ali

    2014-01-01

    TechEdSat-3p is the second generation in the TechEdSat-X series. The TechEdSat Series uses the CubeSat standards established by the California Polytechnic State University Cal Poly), San Luis Obispo. With typical blocks being constructed from 1-unit (1U 10x10x10 cm) increments, the TechEdSat-3p has a 3U volume with a 30 cm length. The project uniquely pairs advanced university students with NASA researchers in a rapid design-to-flight experience lasting 1-2 semesters.The TechEdSat Nano-Satellite Series provides a rapid platform for testing technologies for future NASA Earth and planetary missions, as well as providing students with an early exposure to flight hardware development and management.

  10. United States forest disturbance trends observed with landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Masek; Samuel N. Goward; Robert E. Kennedy; Warren B. Cohen; Gretchen G. Moisen; Karen Schleweiss; Chengquan. Huang

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing US land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest...

  11. Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

  12. Time series analysis of satellite multi-sensors imagery to study the recursive abnormal grow of floating macrophyte in the lake victoria (central Africa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fusilli, Lorenzo; Cavalli, Rosa Maria; Laneve, Giovanni; Pignatti, Stefano; Santilli, Giancarlo; Santini, Federico

    2010-05-01

    Remote sensing allows multi-temporal mapping and monitoring of large water bodies. The importance of remote sensing for wetland and inland water inventory and monitoring at all scales was emphasized several times by the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands and from EU projects like SALMON and ROSALMA, e.g. by (Finlayson et al., 1999) and (Lowry and Finlayson, 2004). This paper aims at assessing the capability of time series of satellite imagery to provide information suitable for enhancing the understanding of the temporal cycles shown by the macrophytes growing in order to support the monitor and management of the lake Victoria water resources. The lake Victoria coastal areas are facing a number of challenges related to water resource management which include growing population, water scarcity, climate variability and water resource degradation, invasive species, water pollution. The proliferation of invasive plants and aquatic weeds, is of growing concern. In particular, let us recall some of the problems caused by the aquatic weeds growing: Ø interference with human activities such as fishing, and boating; Ø inhibition or interference with a balanced fish population; Ø fish killing due to removal of too much oxygen from the water; Ø production of quiet water areas that are ideal for mosquito breeding. In this context, an integrated use of medium/high resolution images from sensors like MODIS, ASTER, LANDSAT/TM and whenever available CHRIS offers the possibility of creating a congruent time series allowing the analysis of the floating vegetation dynamic on an extended temporal basis. Although MODIS imagery is acquired daily, cloudiness and other sources of noise can greatly reduce the effective temporal resolution, further its spatial resolution can results not always adequate to map the extension of floating plants. Therefore, the integrated use of sensors with different spatial resolution, were used to map across seasons the evolution of the phenomena. The

  13. Derivation and evaluation of land surface temperature from the geostationary operational environmental satellite series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Li

    The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) have been continuously monitoring the earth surface since 1970, providing valuable and intensive data from a very broad range of wavelengths, day and night. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) is currently operating GOES-15 and GOES-13. The design of the GOES series is now heading to the 4 th generation. GOES-R, as a representative of the new generation of the GOES series, is scheduled to be launched in 2015 with higher spatial and temporal resolution images and full-time soundings. These frequent observations provided by GOES Image make them attractive for deriving information on the diurnal land surface temperature (LST) cycle and diurnal temperature range (DTR). These parameters are of great value for research on the Earth's diurnal variability and climate change. Accurate derivation of satellite-based LSTs from thermal infrared data has long been an interesting and challenging research area. To better support the research on climate change, the generation of consistent GOES LST products for both GOES-East and GOES-West from operational dataset as well as historical archive is in great demand. The derivation of GOES LST products and the evaluation of proposed retrieval methods are two major objectives of this study. Literature relevant to satellite-based LST retrieval techniques was reviewed. Specifically, the evolution of two LST algorithm families and LST retrieval methods for geostationary satellites were summarized in this dissertation. Literature relevant to the evaluation of satellite-based LSTs was also reviewed. All the existing methods are a valuable reference to develop the GOES LST product. The primary objective of this dissertation is the development of models for deriving consistent GOES LSTs with high spatial and high temporal coverage. Proper LST retrieval algorithms were studied

  14. A 40 Year Time Series of SBUV Observations: the Version 8.6 Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    McPeters, Richard; Bhartia, P. K.; Flynn, L.

    2012-01-01

    Under a NASA program to produce long term data records from instruments on multiple satellites (MEaSUREs), data from a series of eight SBUV and SBUV 12 instruments have been reprocessed to create a 40 year long ozone time series. Data from the Nimbus 4 BUV, Nimbus 7 SBUV, and SBUV/2 instruments on NOAA 9, 11, 14, 16, 17, and 18 were used covering the period 1970 to 1972 and 1979 to the present. In past analyses an ozone time series was created from these instruments by adjusting ozone itself, instrument by instrument, for consistency during overlap periods. In the version 8.6 processing adjustments were made to the radiance calibration of each instrument to maintain a consistent calibration over the entire time series. Data for all eight instruments were then reprocessed using the adjusted radiances. Reprocessing is necessary to produce an accurate latitude dependence. Other improvements incorporated in version 8.6 included the use of the ozone cross sections of Brion, Daumont, and Malicet, and the use of a cloud height climatology derived from Aura OMI measurements. The new cross sections have a more accurate temperature dependence than the cross sections previously used. The OMI-based cloud heights account for the penetration of UV into the upper layers of clouds. The consistency of the version 8.6 time series was evaluated by intra-instrument comparisons during overlap periods, comparisons with ground-based instruments, and comparisons with measurements made by instruments on other satellites such as SAGE II and UARS MLS. These comparisons show that for the instruments on NOAA 16, 17 and 18, the instrument calibrations were remarkably stable and consistent from instrument to instrument. The data record from the Nimbus 7 SBUV was also very stable, and SAGE and ground-based comparisons show that the' calibration was consistent with measurements made years laterby the NOAA 16 instrument. The calibrations of the SBUV/2 instruments on NOAA 9, 11, and 14 were more of

  15. United States Forest Disturbance Trends Observed Using Landsat Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masek, Jeffrey G.; Goward, Samuel N.; Kennedy, Robert E.; Cohen, Warren B.; Moisen, Gretchen G.; Schleeweis, Karen; Huang, Chengquan

    2013-01-01

    Disturbance events strongly affect the composition, structure, and function of forest ecosystems; however, existing U.S. land management inventories were not designed to monitor disturbance. To begin addressing this gap, the North American Forest Dynamics (NAFD) project has examined a geographic sample of 50 Landsat satellite image time series to assess trends in forest disturbance across the conterminous United States for 1985-2005. The geographic sample design used a probability-based scheme to encompass major forest types and maximize geographic dispersion. For each sample location disturbance was identified in the Landsat series using the Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) algorithm. The NAFD analysis indicates that, on average, 2.77 Mha/yr of forests were disturbed annually, representing 1.09%/yr of US forestland. These satellite-based national disturbance rates estimates tend to be lower than those derived from land management inventories, reflecting both methodological and definitional differences. In particular the VCT approach used with a biennial time step has limited sensitivity to low-intensity disturbances. Unlike prior satellite studies, our biennial forest disturbance rates vary by nearly a factor of two between high and low years. High western US disturbance rates were associated with active fire years and insect activity, while variability in the east is more strongly related to harvest rates in managed forests. We note that generating a geographic sample based on representing forest type and variability may be problematic since the spatial pattern of disturbance does not necessarily correlate with forest type. We also find that the prevalence of diffuse, non-stand clearing disturbance in US forests makes the application of a biennial geographic sample problematic. Future satellite-based studies of disturbance at regional and national scales should focus on wall-to-wall analyses with annual time step for improved accuracy.

  16. Analysis of Land Subsidence Monitoring in Mining Area with Time-Series Insar Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, N.; Wang, Y. J.

    2018-04-01

    Time-series InSAR technology has become a popular land subsidence monitoring method in recent years, because of its advantages such as high accuracy, wide area, low expenditure, intensive monitoring points and free from accessibility restrictions. In this paper, we applied two kinds of satellite data, ALOS PALSAR and RADARSAT-2, to get the subsidence monitoring results of the study area in two time periods by time-series InSAR technology. By analyzing the deformation range, rate and amount, the time-series analysis of land subsidence in mining area was realized. The results show that InSAR technology could be used to monitor land subsidence in large area and meet the demand of subsidence monitoring in mining area.

  17. Producing Coordinate Time Series for Iraq's CORS Site for Detection Geophysical Phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oday Yaseen Mohamed Zeki Alhamadani

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS have become an integral part of wide range of applications. One of these applications of GNSS is implementation of the cellular phone to locate the position of users and this technology has been employed in social media applications. Moreover, GNSS have been effectively employed in transportation, GIS, mobile satellite communications, and etc. On the other hand, the geomatics sciences use the GNSS for many practical and scientific applications such as surveying and mapping and monitoring, etc. In this study, the GNSS raw data of ISER CORS, which is located in the North of Iraq, are processed and analyzed to build up coordinate time series for the purpose of detection the Arabian tectonic plate motion over seven years and a half. Such coordinates time series have been produced very efficiently using GNSS Precise Point Positioning (PPP. The daily PPP results were processed, analyzed, and presented as coordinate time series using GPS Interactive Time Series Analysis. Furthermore, MATLAB (V.2013a is used in this study to computerize GITSA with Graphic User Interface (GUI. The objective of this study was to investigate both of the homogeneity and consistency of the Iraq CORSs GNSS raw data for detection any geophysical changes over long period of time. Additionally, this study aims to employ free online PPP services, such as CSRS_PPP software, for processing GNSS raw data for generation GNSS coordinate time series. The coordinate time series of ISER station showed a +20.9 mm per year, +27.2 mm per year, and -11.3 mm per year in the East, North, and up-down components, respectively. These findings showed a remarkable similarity with those obtained by long-term monitoring of Earth's crust deformation and movement based on global studies and this highlights the importance of using GNSS for monitoring the movement of tectonic plate motion based on CORS and online GNSS data processing services over long period of

  18. Satellite time-series data for vegetation phenology detection and environmental assessment in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suepa, Tanita

    The relationship between temporal and spatial data is considered the major advantage of remote sensing in research related to biophysical characteristics. With temporally formatted remote sensing products, it is possible to monitor environmental changes as well as global climate change through time and space by analyzing vegetation phenology. Although a number of different methods have been developed to determine the seasonal cycle using time series of vegetation indices, these methods were not designed to explore and monitor changes and trends of vegetation phenology in Southeast Asia (SEA). SEA is adversely affected by impacts of climate change, which causes considerable environmental problems, and the increase in agricultural land conversion and intensification also adds to those problems. Consequently, exploring and monitoring phenological change and environmental impacts are necessary for a better understanding of the ecosystem dynamics and environmental change in this region. This research aimed to investigate inter-annual variability of vegetation phenology and rainfall seasonality, analyze the possible drivers of phenological changes from both climatic and anthropogenic factors, assess the environmental impacts in agricultural areas, and develop an enhanced visualization method for phenological information dissemination. In this research, spatio-temporal patterns of vegetation phenology were analyzed by using MODIS-EVI time series data over the period of 2001-2010. Rainfall seasonality was derived from TRMM daily rainfall rate. Additionally, this research assessed environmental impacts of GHG emissions by using the environmental model (DNDC) to quantify emissions from rice fields in Thailand. Furthermore, a web mapping application was developed to present the output of phenological and environmental analysis with interactive functions. The results revealed that satellite time-series data provided a great opportunity to study regional vegetation variability

  19. A Two-Dimensional Solar Tracking Stationary Guidance Method Based on Feature-Based Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keke Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The amount of satellite energy acquired has a direct impact on operational capacities of the satellite. As for practical high functional density microsatellites, solar tracking guidance design of solar panels plays an extremely important role. Targeted at stationary tracking problems incurred in a new system that utilizes panels mounted in the two-dimensional turntable to acquire energies to the greatest extent, a two-dimensional solar tracking stationary guidance method based on feature-based time series was proposed under the constraint of limited satellite attitude coupling control capability. By analyzing solar vector variation characteristics within an orbit period and solar vector changes within the whole life cycle, such a method could be adopted to establish a two-dimensional solar tracking guidance model based on the feature-based time series to realize automatic switching of feature-based time series and stationary guidance under the circumstance of different β angles and the maximum angular velocity control, which was applicable to near-earth orbits of all orbital inclination. It was employed to design a two-dimensional solar tracking stationary guidance system, and a mathematical simulation for guidance performance was carried out in diverse conditions under the background of in-orbit application. The simulation results show that the solar tracking accuracy of two-dimensional stationary guidance reaches 10∘ and below under the integrated constraints, which meet engineering application requirements.

  20. Mapping the extent of abandoned farmland in Central and Eastern Europe using MODIS time series satellite data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcantara, Camilo; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Griffiths, Patrick; Hostert, Patrick; Knorn, Jan; Müller, Daniel; Sieber, Anika; Baumann, Matthias; Bragina, Eugenia V; Radeloff, Volker C; Prishchepov, Alexander V; Schierhorn, Florian

    2013-01-01

    The demand for agricultural products continues to grow rapidly, but further agricultural expansion entails substantial environmental costs, making recultivating currently unused farmland an interesting alternative. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to widespread abandonment of agricultural lands, but the extent and spatial patterns of abandonment are unclear. We quantified the extent of abandoned farmland, both croplands and pastures, across the region using MODIS NDVI satellite image time series from 2004 to 2006 and support vector machine classifications. Abandoned farmland was widespread, totaling 52.5 Mha, particularly in temperate European Russia (32 Mha), northern and western Ukraine, and Belarus. Differences in abandonment rates among countries were striking, suggesting that institutional and socio-economic factors were more important in determining the amount of abandonment than biophysical conditions. Indeed, much abandoned farmland occurred in areas without major constraints for agriculture. Our map provides a basis for assessing the potential of Central and Eastern Europe’s abandoned agricultural lands to contribute to food or bioenergy production, or carbon storage, as well as the environmental trade-offs and social constraints of recultivation. (letter)

  1. Plan of Time Management of Satellite Positioning System using Quasi-zenith Satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Yasuhiro; Fujieda, Miho; Amagai, Jun; Yokota, Shoichiro; Kimura, Kazuhiro; Ito, Hiroyuki; Hama, Shin'ichi; Morikawa, Takao; Kawano, Isao; Kogure, Satoshi

    The Quasi-Zenith satellites System (QZSS) is developed as an integrated satellite service system of communication, broadcasting and positioning for mobile users in specified regions of Japan from high elevation angle. Purposes of the satellite positioning system using Quasi-Zenith satellite (QZS) are to complement and augment the GPS. The national institutes concerned have been developing the positioning system using QZS since 2003 and will carry out experiments and researches in three years after the launch. In this system, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) is mainly in charge of timing system for the satellite positioning system using QZS, such as onboard hydrogen maser atomic clock and precise time management system of the QZSS. We started to develop the engineering model of the time management system for the QZSS. The time management system for the QZSS will be used to compare time differences between QZS and earth station as well as to compare between three onboard atomic clocks. This paper introduces time management of satellite positioning system using the QZSS.

  2. Phase correction and error estimation in InSAR time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Fattahi, H.; Amelung, F.

    2017-12-01

    During the last decade several InSAR time series approaches have been developed in response to the non-idea acquisition strategy of SAR satellites, such as large spatial and temporal baseline with non-regular acquisitions. The small baseline tubes and regular acquisitions of new SAR satellites such as Sentinel-1 allows us to form fully connected networks of interferograms and simplifies the time series analysis into a weighted least square inversion of an over-determined system. Such robust inversion allows us to focus more on the understanding of different components in InSAR time-series and its uncertainties. We present an open-source python-based package for InSAR time series analysis, called PySAR (https://yunjunz.github.io/PySAR/), with unique functionalities for obtaining unbiased ground displacement time-series, geometrical and atmospheric correction of InSAR data and quantifying the InSAR uncertainty. Our implemented strategy contains several features including: 1) improved spatial coverage using coherence-based network of interferograms, 2) unwrapping error correction using phase closure or bridging, 3) tropospheric delay correction using weather models and empirical approaches, 4) DEM error correction, 5) optimal selection of reference date and automatic outlier detection, 6) InSAR uncertainty due to the residual tropospheric delay, decorrelation and residual DEM error, and 7) variance-covariance matrix of final products for geodetic inversion. We demonstrate the performance using SAR datasets acquired by Cosmo-Skymed and TerraSAR-X, Sentinel-1 and ALOS/ALOS-2, with application on the highly non-linear volcanic deformation in Japan and Ecuador (figure 1). Our result shows precursory deformation before the 2015 eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, with a maximum uplift of 3.4 cm on the western flank (fig. 1b), with a standard deviation of 0.9 cm (fig. 1a), supporting the finding by Morales-Rivera et al. (2017, GRL); and a post-eruptive subsidence on the same

  3. A global evaluation of harmonic analysis of time series under distrinct gap conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, J.; Hu, G.; Menenti, M.

    2013-01-01

    Reconstruction of time series of satellite image data to obtain continuous, consistent and accurate data for downstream applications is playing a crucial role in remote sensing applications such as vegetation dynamics, land cover changes, land-atmosphere interactions and climate changes. Among the

  4. Monitoring mangrove forests after aquaculture abandonment using time series of very high spatial resolution satellite images: A case study from the Perancak estuary, Bali, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proisy, Christophe; Viennois, Gaëlle; Sidik, Frida; Andayani, Ariani; Enright, James Anthony; Guitet, Stéphane; Gusmawati, Niken; Lemonnier, Hugues; Muthusankar, Gowrappan; Olagoke, Adewole; Prosperi, Juliana; Rahmania, Rinny; Ricout, Anaïs; Soulard, Benoit; Suhardjono

    2018-06-01

    Revegetation of abandoned aquaculture regions should be a priority for any integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). This paper examines the potential of a matchless time series of 20 very high spatial resolution (VHSR) optical satellite images acquired for mapping trends in the evolution of mangrove forests from 2001 to 2015 in an estuary fragmented into aquaculture ponds. Evolution of mangrove extent was quantified through robust multitemporal analysis based on supervised image classification. Results indicated that mangroves are expanding inside and outside ponds and over pond dykes. However, the yearly expansion rate of vegetation cover greatly varied between replanted ponds. Ground truthing showed that only Rhizophora species had been planted, whereas natural mangroves consist of Avicennia and Sonneratia species. In addition, the dense Rhizophora plantations present very low regeneration capabilities compared with natural mangroves. Time series of VHSR images provide comprehensive and intuitive level of information for the support of ICZM. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Study of chaos in chaotic satellite systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Lyapunov exponents are estimated. From these studies, chaosin satellite system has been established. Solution of equations of motion of the satellite system are drawn in the form of three-dimensional, two-dimensional and time series phase portraits. Phase portraits and time series display the chaotic nature of the ...

  6. Relativistic Time Transfer for Inter-satellite Links

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie, Yi, E-mail: yixie@nju.edu.cn [Department of Astronomy, School of Astronomy and Space Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing (China); Shanghai Key Laboratory of Space Navigation and Position Techniques, Shanghai (China); Key Laboratory of Modern Astronomy and Astrophysics, Nanjing University, Ministry of Education, Nanjing (China)

    2016-04-26

    Inter-Satellite links (ISLs) will be an important technique for a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) in the future. Based on the principles of general relativity, the time transfer in an ISL is modeled and the algorithm for onboard computation is described. It is found, in general, satellites with circular orbits and identical semi-major axes can benefit inter-satellite time transfer by canceling out terms associated with the transformations between the proper times and the Geocentric Coordinate Time. For a GPS-like GNSS, the Shapiro delay is as large as 0.1 ns when the ISL passes at the limb of the Earth. However, in more realistic cases, this value will decrease to about 50 ps.

  7. Study of chaos in chaotic satellite systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Ayub; Kumar, Sanjay

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we study the qualitative behaviour of satellite systems using bifurcation diagrams, Poincaré section, Lyapunov exponents, dissipation, equilibrium points, Kaplan-Yorke dimension etc. Bifurcation diagrams with respect to the known parameters of satellite systems are analysed. Poincaré sections with different sowing axes of the satellite are drawn. Eigenvalues of Jacobian matrices for the satellite system at different equilibrium points are calculated to justify the unstable regions. Lyapunov exponents are estimated. From these studies, chaos in satellite system has been established. Solution of equations of motion of the satellite system are drawn in the form of three-dimensional, two-dimensional and time series phase portraits. Phase portraits and time series display the chaotic nature of the considered system.

  8. Using Page’s cumulative sum test on MODIS time series to detect land-cover changes

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Grobler, TL

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available by natural vegetation using 500-m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer time-series satellite data. The method is a sequential per-pixel change alarm algorithm that can take into account positive detection delay, probability of detection, and false...

  9. GPS Position Time Series @ JPL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Susan; Moore, Angelyn; Kedar, Sharon; Liu, Zhen; Webb, Frank; Heflin, Mike; Desai, Shailen

    2013-01-01

    Different flavors of GPS time series analysis at JPL - Use same GPS Precise Point Positioning Analysis raw time series - Variations in time series analysis/post-processing driven by different users. center dot JPL Global Time Series/Velocities - researchers studying reference frame, combining with VLBI/SLR/DORIS center dot JPL/SOPAC Combined Time Series/Velocities - crustal deformation for tectonic, volcanic, ground water studies center dot ARIA Time Series/Coseismic Data Products - Hazard monitoring and response focused center dot ARIA data system designed to integrate GPS and InSAR - GPS tropospheric delay used for correcting InSAR - Caltech's GIANT time series analysis uses GPS to correct orbital errors in InSAR - Zhen Liu's talking tomorrow on InSAR Time Series analysis

  10. Tidal inundation (“Rob”) investigation using time series of high resolution satellite image data and from institu measurements along northern coast of Java (Pantura)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreas, Heri; Usriyah; Zainal Abidin, Hasanuddin; Anggreni Sarsito, Dina

    2017-06-01

    Tidal inundation (in Javanese they call it “Rob”) is now becoming a well known phenomenon along northern coast of Java Indonesia (Pantura). The occurrence of tidal inundation was recognized at least in the early 2000 and even earlier. In the recent years the tidal inundation comes not only at a high tide but even at the regular tide in some area across Pantura. In fact in location such as Pondok Bali, north of Blanakan, north of Pekalongan, north of Semarang and north west of Demak, seems those areas are sinking to the sea through times. Sea level rise and land subsidence are considered as main factors deriving the occurrence of this tidal inundation. We were using time series of high resolution satellite image data and insitu data measurements to mapping the tidal inundation along northern coast of Java. All available data from google data satellite archives (year 2000- recent years) and any available sources being analyze together with field surveys tagging and also from media information. As a result we can see the tidal inundation are taking place in Tanggerang, Jakarta, Bekasi, Cilamaya, Pondok Bali, Blanakan, Indramayu, Cirebon, Brebes, Tegal, Pemalang, Pekalongan, Kendal, Semarang, Demak, Gresik, Surabaya, Sidoarjo and Pasuruan.

  11. Impact of Sensor Degradation on the MODIS NDVI Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dongdong; Morton, Douglas Christopher; Masek, Jeffrey; Wu, Aisheng; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Xiong, Xiaoxiong; Levy, Robert; Vermote, Eric; Wolfe, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Time series of satellite data provide unparalleled information on the response of vegetation to climate variability. Detecting subtle changes in vegetation over time requires consistent satellite-based measurements. Here, the impact of sensor degradation on trend detection was evaluated using Collection 5 data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on the Terra and Aqua platforms. For Terra MODIS, the impact of blue band (Band 3, 470 nm) degradation on simulated surface reflectance was most pronounced at near-nadir view angles, leading to a 0.001-0.004 yr-1 decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) under a range of simulated aerosol conditions and surface types. Observed trends in MODIS NDVI over North America were consistentwith simulated results,with nearly a threefold difference in negative NDVI trends derived from Terra (17.4%) and Aqua (6.7%) MODIS sensors during 2002-2010. Planned adjustments to Terra MODIS calibration for Collection 6 data reprocessing will largely eliminate this negative bias in detection of NDVI trends.

  12. Weighted statistical parameters for irregularly sampled time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimoldini, Lorenzo

    2014-01-01

    Unevenly spaced time series are common in astronomy because of the day-night cycle, weather conditions, dependence on the source position in the sky, allocated telescope time and corrupt measurements, for example, or inherent to the scanning law of satellites like Hipparcos and the forthcoming Gaia. Irregular sampling often causes clumps of measurements and gaps with no data which can severely disrupt the values of estimators. This paper aims at improving the accuracy of common statistical parameters when linear interpolation (in time or phase) can be considered an acceptable approximation of a deterministic signal. A pragmatic solution is formulated in terms of a simple weighting scheme, adapting to the sampling density and noise level, applicable to large data volumes at minimal computational cost. Tests on time series from the Hipparcos periodic catalogue led to significant improvements in the overall accuracy and precision of the estimators with respect to the unweighted counterparts and those weighted by inverse-squared uncertainties. Automated classification procedures employing statistical parameters weighted by the suggested scheme confirmed the benefits of the improved input attributes. The classification of eclipsing binaries, Mira, RR Lyrae, Delta Cephei and Alpha2 Canum Venaticorum stars employing exclusively weighted descriptive statistics achieved an overall accuracy of 92 per cent, about 6 per cent higher than with unweighted estimators.

  13. Estimating daily time series of streamflow using hydrological model calibrated based on satellite observations of river water surface width: Toward real world applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Ishidaira, Hiroshi; Bastola, Satish; Yu, Jingshan

    2015-05-01

    Lacking observation data for calibration constrains applications of hydrological models to estimate daily time series of streamflow. Recent improvements in remote sensing enable detection of river water-surface width from satellite observations, making possible the tracking of streamflow from space. In this study, a method calibrating hydrological models using river width derived from remote sensing is demonstrated through application to the ungauged Irrawaddy Basin in Myanmar. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is selected as a tool for automatic calibration and uncertainty analysis. Of 50,000 randomly generated parameter sets, 997 are identified as behavioral, based on comparing model simulation with satellite observations. The uncertainty band of streamflow simulation can span most of 10-year average monthly observed streamflow for moderate and high flow conditions. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is 95.7% for the simulated streamflow at the 50% quantile. These results indicate that application to the target basin is generally successful. Beyond evaluating the method in a basin lacking streamflow data, difficulties and possible solutions for applications in the real world are addressed to promote future use of the proposed method in more ungauged basins. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Time series analysis time series analysis methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Tata Subba; Rao, C R

    2012-01-01

    The field of statistics not only affects all areas of scientific activity, but also many other matters such as public policy. It is branching rapidly into so many different subjects that a series of handbooks is the only way of comprehensively presenting the various aspects of statistical methodology, applications, and recent developments. The Handbook of Statistics is a series of self-contained reference books. Each volume is devoted to a particular topic in statistics, with Volume 30 dealing with time series. The series is addressed to the entire community of statisticians and scientists in various disciplines who use statistical methodology in their work. At the same time, special emphasis is placed on applications-oriented techniques, with the applied statistician in mind as the primary audience. Comprehensively presents the various aspects of statistical methodology Discusses a wide variety of diverse applications and recent developments Contributors are internationally renowened experts in their respect...

  15. Mapping Crop Cycles in China Using MODIS-EVI Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Li

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available As the Earth’s population continues to grow and demand for food increases, the need for improved and timely information related to the properties and dynamics of global agricultural systems is becoming increasingly important. Global land cover maps derived from satellite data provide indispensable information regarding the geographic distribution and areal extent of global croplands. However, land use information, such as cropping intensity (defined here as the number of cropping cycles per year, is not routinely available over large areas because mapping this information from remote sensing is challenging. In this study, we present a simple but efficient algorithm for automated mapping of cropping intensity based on data from NASA’s (NASA: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. The proposed algorithm first applies an adaptive Savitzky-Golay filter to smooth Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI time series derived from MODIS surface reflectance data. It then uses an iterative moving-window methodology to identify cropping cycles from the smoothed EVI time series. Comparison of results from our algorithm with national survey data at both the provincial and prefectural level in China show that the algorithm provides estimates of gross sown area that agree well with inventory data. Accuracy assessment comparing visually interpreted time series with algorithm results for a random sample of agricultural areas in China indicates an overall accuracy of 91.0% for three classes defined based on the number of cycles observed in EVI time series. The algorithm therefore appears to provide a straightforward and efficient method for mapping cropping intensity from MODIS time series data.

  16. Highly comparative time-series analysis: the empirical structure of time series and their methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulcher, Ben D; Little, Max A; Jones, Nick S

    2013-06-06

    The process of collecting and organizing sets of observations represents a common theme throughout the history of science. However, despite the ubiquity of scientists measuring, recording and analysing the dynamics of different processes, an extensive organization of scientific time-series data and analysis methods has never been performed. Addressing this, annotated collections of over 35 000 real-world and model-generated time series, and over 9000 time-series analysis algorithms are analysed in this work. We introduce reduced representations of both time series, in terms of their properties measured by diverse scientific methods, and of time-series analysis methods, in terms of their behaviour on empirical time series, and use them to organize these interdisciplinary resources. This new approach to comparing across diverse scientific data and methods allows us to organize time-series datasets automatically according to their properties, retrieve alternatives to particular analysis methods developed in other scientific disciplines and automate the selection of useful methods for time-series classification and regression tasks. The broad scientific utility of these tools is demonstrated on datasets of electroencephalograms, self-affine time series, heartbeat intervals, speech signals and others, in each case contributing novel analysis techniques to the existing literature. Highly comparative techniques that compare across an interdisciplinary literature can thus be used to guide more focused research in time-series analysis for applications across the scientific disciplines.

  17. Introduction to Time Series Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Kitagawa, Genshiro

    2010-01-01

    In time series modeling, the behavior of a certain phenomenon is expressed in relation to the past values of itself and other covariates. Since many important phenomena in statistical analysis are actually time series and the identification of conditional distribution of the phenomenon is an essential part of the statistical modeling, it is very important and useful to learn fundamental methods of time series modeling. Illustrating how to build models for time series using basic methods, "Introduction to Time Series Modeling" covers numerous time series models and the various tools f

  18. The Impact of Time Difference between Satellite Overpass and Ground Observation on Cloud Cover Performance Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jędrzej S. Bojanowski

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cloud property data sets derived from passive sensors onboard the polar orbiting satellites (such as the NOAA’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer have global coverage and now span a climatological time period. Synoptic surface observations (SYNOP are often used to characterize the accuracy of satellite-based cloud cover. Infrequent overpasses of polar orbiting satellites combined with the 3- or 6-h SYNOP frequency lead to collocation time differences of up to 3 h. The associated collocation error degrades the cloud cover performance statistics such as the Hanssen-Kuiper’s discriminant (HK by up to 45%. Limiting the time difference to 10 min, on the other hand, introduces a sampling error due to a lower number of corresponding satellite and SYNOP observations. This error depends on both the length of the validated time series and the SYNOP frequency. The trade-off between collocation and sampling error call for an optimum collocation time difference. It however depends on cloud cover characteristics and SYNOP frequency, and cannot be generalized. Instead, a method is presented to reconstruct the unbiased (true HK from HK affected by the collocation differences, which significantly (t-test p < 0.01 improves the validation results.

  19. Mapping Invasive Tamarisk (Tamarix: A Comparison of Single-Scene and Time-Series Analyses of Remotely Sensed Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul H. Evangelista

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we tested the Maximum Entropy model (Maxent for its application and performance in remotely sensing invasive Tamarix sp. Six Landsat 7 ETM+ satellite scenes and a suite of vegetation indices at different times of the growing season were selected for our study area along the Arkansas River in Colorado. Satellite scenes were selected for April, May, June, August, September, and October and tested in single-scene and time-series analyses. The best model was a time-series analysis fit with all spectral variables, which had an AUC = 0.96, overall accuracy = 0.90, and Kappa = 0.79. The top predictor variables were June tasselled cap wetness, September tasselled cap wetness, and October band 3. A second time-series analysis, where the variables that were highly correlated and demonstrated low predictive strengths were removed, was the second best model. The third best model was the October single-scene analysis. Our results may prove to be an effective approach for mapping Tamarix sp., which has been a challenge for resource managers. Of equal importance is the positive performance of the Maxent model in handling remotely sensed datasets.

  20. Estimation of vegetation cover resilience from satellite time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Simoniello

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Resilience is a fundamental concept for understanding vegetation as a dynamic component of the climate system. It expresses the ability of ecosystems to tolerate disturbances and to recover their initial state. Recovery times are basic parameters of the vegetation's response to forcing and, therefore, are essential for describing realistic vegetation within dynamical models. Healthy vegetation tends to rapidly recover from shock and to persist in growth and expansion. On the contrary, climatic and anthropic stress can reduce resilience thus favouring persistent decrease in vegetation activity.

    In order to characterize resilience, we analyzed the time series 1982–2003 of 8 km GIMMS AVHRR-NDVI maps of the Italian territory. Persistence probability of negative and positive trends was estimated according to the vegetation cover class, altitude, and climate. Generally, mean recovery times from negative trends were shorter than those estimated for positive trends, as expected for vegetation of healthy status. Some signatures of inefficient resilience were found in high-level mountainous areas and in the Mediterranean sub-tropical ones. This analysis was refined by aggregating pixels according to phenology. This multitemporal clustering synthesized information on vegetation cover, climate, and orography rather well. The consequent persistence estimations confirmed and detailed hints obtained from the previous analyses. Under the same climatic regime, different vegetation resilience levels were found. In particular, within the Mediterranean sub-tropical climate, clustering was able to identify features with different persistence levels in areas that are liable to different levels of anthropic pressure. Moreover, it was capable of enhancing reduced vegetation resilience also in the southern areas under Warm Temperate sub-continental climate. The general consistency of the obtained results showed that, with the help of suited analysis

  1. A normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time-series of idle agriculture lands: A preliminary study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vaiphasa, C.; Piamduaytham, S.; Vaiphasa, T.; Skidmore, A.K.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the NDVI time-series collected from the study area between year 2003 and 2005 of all land cover types are plotted and compared. The study area is the agricultural zones in Banphai District, Khonkean, Thailand. The LANDSAT satellite images of different dates were first transformed into

  2. Monitoring Volcano Deformation in the Northernmost Andes with ALOS InSAR Time-Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales Rivera, A. M.; Amelung, F.

    2014-12-01

    Satellite-based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is well known to be used as a volcano monitoring tool, providing the opportunity to conduct local and regional surveys to detect and measure volcanic deformation. The signals detected by InSAR on volcanoes can be related to various phenomena, such as volume changes in magmatic reservoirs, compaction of recent deposits, changes in hydrothermal activity, and flank instability. The InSAR time-series method has well documented examples of these phenomena, including precursory inflation of magma reservoirs months prior to volcanic eruptions, proving its potential for early warning systems. We use the ALOS-1 satellite from the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), which acquired a global L-band data set of nearly 20 acquisitions during 2007-2011, to make an InSAR time-series analysis using the Small Baseline method (SBAS). Our analysis covers all of the volcanoes in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru that are cataloged by the Global Volcanism Program. We present results showing time-dependent ground deformation on an near the volcanoes, and present kinematic models to constrain the characteristics of the magmatic sources for the cases in which the deformation is likely related to changes in magma reservoir pressurization.

  3. International Work-Conference on Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Pomares, Héctor; Valenzuela, Olga

    2017-01-01

    This volume of selected and peer-reviewed contributions on the latest developments in time series analysis and forecasting updates the reader on topics such as analysis of irregularly sampled time series, multi-scale analysis of univariate and multivariate time series, linear and non-linear time series models, advanced time series forecasting methods, applications in time series analysis and forecasting, advanced methods and online learning in time series and high-dimensional and complex/big data time series. The contributions were originally presented at the International Work-Conference on Time Series, ITISE 2016, held in Granada, Spain, June 27-29, 2016. The series of ITISE conferences provides a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest ideas and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications in the field of time series analysis and forecasting.  It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary rese arch encompassing the disciplines of comput...

  4. An accuracy assessment of realtime GNSS time series toward semi- real time seafloor geodetic observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osada, Y.; Ohta, Y.; Demachi, T.; Kido, M.; Fujimoto, H.; Azuma, R.; Hino, R.

    2013-12-01

    Large interplate earthquake repeatedly occurred in Japan Trench. Recently, the detail crustal deformation revealed by the nation-wide inland GPS network called as GEONET by GSI. However, the maximum displacement region for interplate earthquake is mainly located offshore region. GPS/Acoustic seafloor geodetic observation (hereafter GPS/A) is quite important and useful for understanding of shallower part of the interplate coupling between subducting and overriding plates. We typically conduct GPS/A in specific ocean area based on repeated campaign style using research vessel or buoy. Therefore, we cannot monitor the temporal variation of seafloor crustal deformation in real time. The one of technical issue on real time observation is kinematic GPS analysis because kinematic GPS analysis based on reference and rover data. If the precise kinematic GPS analysis will be possible in the offshore region, it should be promising method for real time GPS/A with USV (Unmanned Surface Vehicle) and a moored buoy. We assessed stability, precision and accuracy of StarFireTM global satellites based augmentation system. We primarily tested for StarFire in the static condition. In order to assess coordinate precision and accuracy, we compared 1Hz StarFire time series and post-processed precise point positioning (PPP) 1Hz time series by GIPSY-OASIS II processing software Ver. 6.1.2 with three difference product types (ultra-rapid, rapid, and final orbits). We also used difference interval clock information (30 and 300 seconds) for the post-processed PPP processing. The standard deviation of real time StarFire time series is less than 30 mm (horizontal components) and 60 mm (vertical component) based on 1 month continuous processing. We also assessed noise spectrum of the estimated time series by StarFire and post-processed GIPSY PPP results. We found that the noise spectrum of StarFire time series is similar pattern with GIPSY-OASIS II processing result based on JPL rapid orbit

  5. A Hierarchical Approach to Persistent Scatterer Network Construction and Deformation Time Series Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Zhang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a hierarchical approach to network construction and time series estimation in persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI for deformation analysis using the time series of high-resolution satellite SAR images. To balance between computational efficiency and solution accuracy, a dividing and conquering algorithm (i.e., two levels of PS networking and solution is proposed for extracting deformation rates of a study area. The algorithm has been tested using 40 high-resolution TerraSAR-X images collected between 2009 and 2010 over Tianjin in China for subsidence analysis, and validated by using the ground-based leveling measurements. The experimental results indicate that the hierarchical approach can remarkably reduce computing time and memory requirements, and the subsidence measurements derived from the hierarchical solution are in good agreement with the leveling data.

  6. Standardized Access and Processing of Multi-Source Earth Observation Time-Series Data within a Regional Data Middleware

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberle, J.; Schmullius, C.

    2017-12-01

    Increasing archives of global satellite data present a new challenge to handle multi-source satellite data in a user-friendly way. Any user is confronted with different data formats and data access services. In addition the handling of time-series data is complex as an automated processing and execution of data processing steps is needed to supply the user with the desired product for a specific area of interest. In order to simplify the access to data archives of various satellite missions and to facilitate the subsequent processing, a regional data and processing middleware has been developed. The aim of this system is to provide standardized and web-based interfaces to multi-source time-series data for individual regions on Earth. For further use and analysis uniform data formats and data access services are provided. Interfaces to data archives of the sensor MODIS (NASA) as well as the satellites Landsat (USGS) and Sentinel (ESA) have been integrated in the middleware. Various scientific algorithms, such as the calculation of trends and breakpoints of time-series data, can be carried out on the preprocessed data on the basis of uniform data management. Jupyter Notebooks are linked to the data and further processing can be conducted directly on the server using Python and the statistical language R. In addition to accessing EO data, the middleware is also used as an intermediary between the user and external databases (e.g., Flickr, YouTube). Standardized web services as specified by OGC are provided for all tools of the middleware. Currently, the use of cloud services is being researched to bring algorithms to the data. As a thematic example, an operational monitoring of vegetation phenology is being implemented on the basis of various optical satellite data and validation data from the German Weather Service. Other examples demonstrate the monitoring of wetlands focusing on automated discovery and access of Landsat and Sentinel data for local areas.

  7. From Networks to Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimada, Yutaka; Ikeguchi, Tohru; Shigehara, Takaomi

    2012-10-01

    In this Letter, we propose a framework to transform a complex network to a time series. The transformation from complex networks to time series is realized by the classical multidimensional scaling. Applying the transformation method to a model proposed by Watts and Strogatz [Nature (London) 393, 440 (1998)], we show that ring lattices are transformed to periodic time series, small-world networks to noisy periodic time series, and random networks to random time series. We also show that these relationships are analytically held by using the circulant-matrix theory and the perturbation theory of linear operators. The results are generalized to several high-dimensional lattices.

  8. Multi-time scale analysis of the spatial representativeness of in situ soil moisture data within satellite footprints

    Science.gov (United States)

    We conduct a novel comprehensive investigation that seeks to prove the connection between spatial and time scales in surface soil moisture (SM) within the satellite footprint (~50 km). Modeled and measured point series at Yanco and Little Washita in situ networks are first decomposed into anomalies ...

  9. Duality between Time Series and Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanharo, Andriana S. L. O.; Sirer, M. Irmak; Malmgren, R. Dean; Ramos, Fernando M.; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes.

    2011-01-01

    Studying the interaction between a system's components and the temporal evolution of the system are two common ways to uncover and characterize its internal workings. Recently, several maps from a time series to a network have been proposed with the intent of using network metrics to characterize time series. Although these maps demonstrate that different time series result in networks with distinct topological properties, it remains unclear how these topological properties relate to the original time series. Here, we propose a map from a time series to a network with an approximate inverse operation, making it possible to use network statistics to characterize time series and time series statistics to characterize networks. As a proof of concept, we generate an ensemble of time series ranging from periodic to random and confirm that application of the proposed map retains much of the information encoded in the original time series (or networks) after application of the map (or its inverse). Our results suggest that network analysis can be used to distinguish different dynamic regimes in time series and, perhaps more importantly, time series analysis can provide a powerful set of tools that augment the traditional network analysis toolkit to quantify networks in new and useful ways. PMID:21858093

  10. Fire Monitoring - The use of medium resolution satellites (AVHRR, MODIS, TET) for long time series processing and the implementation in User Driven Applications and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, E.-M.; Stein, E.; Strunz, G.; Strobl, C.; Frey, C.

    2015-04-01

    This paper introduces fire monitoring works of two different projects, namely TIMELINE (TIMe Series Processing of Medium Resolution Earth Observation Data assessing Long -Term Dynamics In our Natural Environment) and PHAROS (Project on a Multi-Hazard Open Platform for Satellite Based Downstream Services). It describes the evolution from algorithm development from in applied research to the implementation in user driven applications and systems. Concerning TIMELINE, the focus of the work lies on hot spot detection. A detailed description of the choice of a suitable algorithm (round robin approach) will be given. Moreover, strengths and weaknesses of the AVHRR sensor for hot spot detection, a literature review, the study areas and the selected approach will be highlighted. The evaluation showed that the contextual algorithm performed best, and will therefore be used for final implementation. Concerning the PHAROS project, the key aspect is on the use of satellite-based information to provide valuable support to all phases of disaster management. The project focuses on developing a pre-operational sustainable service platform that integrates space-based EO (Earth Observation), terrestrial sensors and communication and navigation assets to enhance the availability of services and products following a multi-hazard approach.

  11. Long time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisdal, H.; Holmqvist, E.; Hyvärinen, V.

    Awareness that emission of greenhouse gases will raise the global temperature and change the climate has led to studies trying to identify such changes in long-term climate and hydrologic time series. This report, written by the......Awareness that emission of greenhouse gases will raise the global temperature and change the climate has led to studies trying to identify such changes in long-term climate and hydrologic time series. This report, written by the...

  12. FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF MODIS NDVI TIME SERIES FOR DETERMINING HOTSPOT OF LAND DEGRADATION IN MONGOLIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Nasanbat

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study examines MODIS NDVI satellite imagery time series can be used to determine hotspot of land degradation area in whole Mongolia. The trend statistical analysis of Mann-Kendall was applied to a 16-year MODIS NDVI satellite imagery record, based on 16-day composited temporal data (from May to September for growing seasons and from 2000 to 2016. We performed to frequency analysis that resulting NDVI residual trend pattern would enable successful determined of negative and positive changes in photo synthetically health vegetation. Our result showed that negative and positive values and generated a map of significant trends. Also, we examined long-term of meteorological parameters for the same period. The result showed positive and negative NDVI trends concurred with land cover types change representing an improve or a degrade in vegetation, respectively. Also, integrated the climate parameters which were precipitation and air temperature changes in the same time period seem to have had an affecting on huge NDVI trend area. The time series trend analysis approach applied successfully determined hotspot of an improvement and a degraded area due to land degradation and desertification.

  13. Frequency Analysis of Modis Ndvi Time Series for Determining Hotspot of Land Degradation in Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasanbat, E.; Sharav, S.; Sanjaa, T.; Lkhamjav, O.; Magsar, E.; Tuvdendorj, B.

    2018-04-01

    This study examines MODIS NDVI satellite imagery time series can be used to determine hotspot of land degradation area in whole Mongolia. The trend statistical analysis of Mann-Kendall was applied to a 16-year MODIS NDVI satellite imagery record, based on 16-day composited temporal data (from May to September) for growing seasons and from 2000 to 2016. We performed to frequency analysis that resulting NDVI residual trend pattern would enable successful determined of negative and positive changes in photo synthetically health vegetation. Our result showed that negative and positive values and generated a map of significant trends. Also, we examined long-term of meteorological parameters for the same period. The result showed positive and negative NDVI trends concurred with land cover types change representing an improve or a degrade in vegetation, respectively. Also, integrated the climate parameters which were precipitation and air temperature changes in the same time period seem to have had an affecting on huge NDVI trend area. The time series trend analysis approach applied successfully determined hotspot of an improvement and a degraded area due to land degradation and desertification.

  14. A Course in Time Series Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Peña, Daniel; Tsay, Ruey S

    2011-01-01

    New statistical methods and future directions of research in time series A Course in Time Series Analysis demonstrates how to build time series models for univariate and multivariate time series data. It brings together material previously available only in the professional literature and presents a unified view of the most advanced procedures available for time series model building. The authors begin with basic concepts in univariate time series, providing an up-to-date presentation of ARIMA models, including the Kalman filter, outlier analysis, automatic methods for building ARIMA models, a

  15. Phenology-based Spartina alterniflora mapping in coastal wetland of the Yangtze Estuary using time series of GaoFen satellite no. 1 wide field of view imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Jinquan; Gao, Wei; Gao, Zhiqiang; Shi, Runhe; Zhang, Chao

    2017-04-01

    Spartina alterniflora is an aggressive invasive plant species that replaces native species, changes the structure and function of the ecosystem across coastal wetlands in China, and is thus a major conservation concern. Mapping the spread of its invasion is a necessary first step for the implementation of effective ecological management strategies. The performance of a phenology-based approach for S. alterniflora mapping is explored in the coastal wetland of the Yangtze Estuary using a time series of GaoFen satellite no. 1 wide field of view camera (GF-1 WFV) imagery. First, a time series of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was constructed to evaluate the phenology of S. alterniflora. Two phenological stages (the senescence stage from November to mid-December and the green-up stage from late April to May) were determined as important for S. alterniflora detection in the study area based on NDVI temporal profiles, spectral reflectance curves of S. alterniflora and its coexistent species, and field surveys. Three phenology feature sets representing three major phenology-based detection strategies were then compared to map S. alterniflora: (1) the single-date imagery acquired within the optimal phenological window, (2) the multitemporal imagery, including four images from the two important phenological windows, and (3) the monthly NDVI time series imagery. Support vector machines and maximum likelihood classifiers were applied on each phenology feature set at different training sample sizes. For all phenology feature sets, the overall results were produced consistently with high mapping accuracies under sufficient training samples sizes, although significantly improved classification accuracies (10%) were obtained when the monthly NDVI time series imagery was employed. The optimal single-date imagery had the lowest accuracies of all detection strategies. The multitemporal analysis demonstrated little reduction in the overall accuracy compared with the

  16. Development of indicators of vegetation recovery based on time series analysis of SPOT Vegetation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lhermitte, S.; Tips, M.; Verbesselt, J.; Jonckheere, I.; Van Aardt, J.; Coppin, Pol

    2005-10-01

    Large-scale wild fires have direct impacts on natural ecosystems and play a major role in the vegetation ecology and carbon budget. Accurate methods for describing post-fire development of vegetation are therefore essential for the understanding and monitoring of terrestrial ecosystems. Time series analysis of satellite imagery offers the potential to quantify these parameters with spatial and temporal accuracy. Current research focuses on the potential of time series analysis of SPOT Vegetation S10 data (1999-2001) to quantify the vegetation recovery of large-scale burns detected in the framework of GBA2000. The objective of this study was to provide quantitative estimates of the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation recovery based on remote sensing indicators. Southern Africa was used as a pilot study area, given the availability of ground and satellite data. An automated technique was developed to extract consistent indicators of vegetation recovery from the SPOT-VGT time series. Reference areas were used to quantify the vegetation regrowth by means of Regeneration Indices (RI). Two kinds of recovery indicators (time and value- based) were tested for RI's of NDVI, SR, SAVI, NDWI, and pure band information. The effects of vegetation structure and temporal fire regime features on the recovery indicators were subsequently analyzed. Statistical analyses were conducted to assess whether the recovery indicators were different for different vegetation types and dependent on timing of the burning season. Results highlighted the importance of appropriate reference areas and the importance of correct normalization of the SPOT-VGT data.

  17. Classification and Mapping of Paddy Rice by Combining Landsat and SAR Time Series Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seonyoung Park

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Rice is an important food resource, and the demand for rice has increased as population has expanded. Therefore, accurate paddy rice classification and monitoring are necessary to identify and forecast rice production. Satellite data have been often used to produce paddy rice maps with more frequent update cycle (e.g., every year than field surveys. Many satellite data, including both optical and SAR sensor data (e.g., Landsat, MODIS, and ALOS PALSAR, have been employed to classify paddy rice. In the present study, time series data from Landsat, RADARSAT-1, and ALOS PALSAR satellite sensors were synergistically used to classify paddy rice through machine learning approaches over two different climate regions (sites A and B. Six schemes considering the composition of various combinations of input data by sensor and collection date were evaluated. Scheme 6 that fused optical and SAR sensor time series data at the decision level yielded the highest accuracy (98.67% for site A and 93.87% for site B. Performance of paddy rice classification was better in site A than site B, which consists of heterogeneous land cover and has low data availability due to a high cloud cover rate. This study also proposed Paddy Rice Mapping Index (PMI considering spectral and phenological characteristics of paddy rice. PMI represented well the spatial distribution of paddy rice in both regions. Google Earth Engine was adopted to produce paddy rice maps over larger areas using the proposed PMI-based approach.

  18. Kolmogorov Space in Time Series Data

    OpenAIRE

    Kanjamapornkul, K.; Pinčák, R.

    2016-01-01

    We provide the proof that the space of time series data is a Kolmogorov space with $T_{0}$-separation axiom using the loop space of time series data. In our approach we define a cyclic coordinate of intrinsic time scale of time series data after empirical mode decomposition. A spinor field of time series data comes from the rotation of data around price and time axis by defining a new extradimension to time series data. We show that there exist hidden eight dimensions in Kolmogorov space for ...

  19. Continuous day-time time series of E-region equatorial electric fields derived from ground magnetic observatory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alken, P.; Chulliat, A.; Maus, S.

    2012-12-01

    The day-time eastward equatorial electric field (EEF) in the ionospheric E-region plays an important role in equatorial ionospheric dynamics. It is responsible for driving the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) current system, equatorial vertical ion drifts, and the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA). Due to its importance, there is much interest in accurately measuring and modeling the EEF. However, there are limited sources of direct EEF measurements with full temporal and spatial coverage of the equatorial ionosphere. In this work, we propose a method of estimating a continuous day-time time series of the EEF at any longitude, provided there is a pair of ground magnetic observatories in the region which can accurately track changes in the strength of the EEJ. First, we derive a climatological unit latitudinal current profile from direct overflights of the CHAMP satellite and use delta H measurements from the ground observatory pair to determine the magnitude of the current. The time series of current profiles is then inverted for the EEF by solving the governing electrodynamic equations. While this method has previously been applied and validated in the Peruvian sector, in this work we demonstrate the method using a pair of magnetometers in Africa (Samogossoni, SAM, 0.18 degrees magnetic latitude and Tamanrasset, TAM, 11.5 degrees magnetic latitude) and validate the resulting EEF values against the CINDI ion velocity meter (IVM) instrument on the C/NOFS satellite. We find a very good 80% correlation with C/NOFS IVM measurements and a root-mean-square difference of 9 m/s in vertical drift velocity. This technique can be extended to any pair of ground observatories which can capture the day-time strength of the EEJ. We plan to apply this work to more observatory pairs around the globe and distribute real-time equatorial electric field values to the community.

  20. On the Use of Running Trends as Summary Statistics for Univariate Time Series and Time Series Association

    OpenAIRE

    Trottini, Mario; Vigo, Isabel; Belda, Santiago

    2015-01-01

    Given a time series, running trends analysis (RTA) involves evaluating least squares trends over overlapping time windows of L consecutive time points, with overlap by all but one observation. This produces a new series called the “running trends series,” which is used as summary statistics of the original series for further analysis. In recent years, RTA has been widely used in climate applied research as summary statistics for time series and time series association. There is no doubt that ...

  1. Knowledge fusion: An approach to time series model selection followed by pattern recognition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bleasdale, S.A.; Burr, T.L.; Scovel, J.C.; Strittmatter, R.B.

    1996-03-01

    This report describes work done during FY 95 that was sponsored by the Department of Energy, Office of Nonproliferation and National Security, Knowledge Fusion Project. The project team selected satellite sensor data to use as the one main example for the application of its analysis algorithms. The specific sensor-fusion problem has many generic features, which make it a worthwhile problem to attempt to solve in a general way. The generic problem is to recognize events of interest from multiple time series that define a possibly noisy background. By implementing a suite of time series modeling and forecasting methods and using well-chosen alarm criteria, we reduce the number of false alarms. We then further reduce the number of false alarms by analyzing all suspicious sections of data, as judged by the alarm criteria, with pattern recognition methods. An accompanying report (Ref 1) describes the implementation and application of this 2-step process for separating events from unusual background and applies a suite of forecasting methods followed by a suite of pattern recognition methods. This report goes into more detail about one of the forecasting methods and one of the pattern recognition methods and is applied to the same kind of satellite-sensor data that is described in Ref. 1

  2. A Filtering of Incomplete GNSS Position Time Series with Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruszczynski, Maciej; Klos, Anna; Bogusz, Janusz

    2018-04-01

    For the first time, we introduced the probabilistic principal component analysis (pPCA) regarding the spatio-temporal filtering of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series to estimate and remove Common Mode Error (CME) without the interpolation of missing values. We used data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations which contributed to the latest International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2014). The efficiency of the proposed algorithm was tested on the simulated incomplete time series, then CME was estimated for a set of 25 stations located in Central Europe. The newly applied pPCA was compared with previously used algorithms, which showed that this method is capable of resolving the problem of proper spatio-temporal filtering of GNSS time series characterized by different observation time span. We showed, that filtering can be carried out with pPCA method when there exist two time series in the dataset having less than 100 common epoch of observations. The 1st Principal Component (PC) explained more than 36% of the total variance represented by time series residuals' (series with deterministic model removed), what compared to the other PCs variances (less than 8%) means that common signals are significant in GNSS residuals. A clear improvement in the spectral indices of the power-law noise was noticed for the Up component, which is reflected by an average shift towards white noise from - 0.98 to - 0.67 (30%). We observed a significant average reduction in the accuracy of stations' velocity estimated for filtered residuals by 35, 28 and 69% for the North, East, and Up components, respectively. CME series were also subjected to analysis in the context of environmental mass loading influences of the filtering results. Subtraction of the environmental loading models from GNSS residuals provides to reduction of the estimated CME variance by 20 and 65% for horizontal and vertical components, respectively.

  3. Coupling mammalian demography to climate through satellite time series of plant phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoner, D.; Sexton, J. O.; Nagol, J. R.; Ironside, K.; Choate, D.; Longshore, K.; Edwards, T., Jr.

    2016-12-01

    The seasonality of plant productivity governs the demography of primary and secondary consumers, and in arid ecosystems primary production is constrained by water availability. We relate the behavior, demography, and spatial distribution of large mammalian herbivores and their principal predator to remotely sensed indices of climate and vegetation across the western United States from 2000-2014. Terrain and plant community composition moderate the effects of climatological drought on primary productivity, resulting in spatial variation in ecosystem susceptibility to water stress. Herbivores track these patterns through habitat selection during key periods such as birthing and migration. Across a broad climatological gradient, timing of the start of growing season explains 75% of the variation in herbivore birth timing and 56% of the variation in neonatal survival rates. Initiation of autumn migration corresponds with the end of the growing season. Although indirectly coupled to primary production, carnivore home range size and population density are strongly correlated with plant productivity and growing-season length. Satellite measures of green reflectance during the peak of the growing season explain over 84% of the variation in carnivore home range size and 59% of the variation in density. Climate projections for the western United States predict warming temperatures and shifts in the timing and form of precipitation. Our analyses suggest that increased climatological variability will contribute to fluctuations in the composition and phenology of plant communities. These changes will propagate through consumer trophic levels, manifesting as increased home range area, shifts in the timing of migration, and greater volatility in large mammal populations. Combined with expansion and amplification of human land uses, these changes will likely have economic implications stemming from increased human-wildlife conflict and loss of ecosystem services.

  4. Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romaguera, M.; Vaughan, R. G.; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F. D.

    This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of

  5. Detecting geothermal anomalies and evaluating LST geothermal component by combining thermal remote sensing time series and land surface model data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romaguera, M.; Vaughan, R. G.; Ettema, J.; Izquierdo-Verdiguier, E.; Hecker, C. A.; van der Meer, F. D.

    2017-01-01

    This paper explores for the first time the possibilities to use two land surface temperature (LST) time series of different origins (geostationary Meteosat Second Generation satellite data and Noah land surface modelling, LSM), to detect geothermal anomalies and extract the geothermal component of

  6. The BEYOND center of excellence for the effective exploitation of satellite time series towards natural disasters monitoring and assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontoes, Charalampos; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Amiridis, Vassilis; Balasis, George; Keramitsoglou, Iphigenia; Herekakis, Themistocles; Christia, Eleni

    2014-05-01

    analysis of the satellite time series from this diverse EO based monitoring network facilities established at NOA covers a broad spectrum of research activities. Indicatively using Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery we have developed algorithms for the automatic diachronic mapping of burnt areas over Greece since 1984 and we have been using MSG/SEVIRI data to detect forest wildfires in Greece since 2007, analyze their temporal and geographical signatures and store these events for further analysis in relation with auxiliary geo-information layers for risk assessment applications. In the field of geophysics we have been employing sophisticated radar interferometry techniques using SAR sensor diversity with multi-frequency, multi-resolution and multi-temporal datasets (e.g. ERS1/ERS2, ENVISAT, TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMED) to map diachronic surface deformation associated with volcanic activity, tectonic stress accumulation and urban subsidence. In the field of atmospheric research, we have developed a 3-dimentional global climatology of aerosol and cloud distributions using the CALIPSO dataset. The database, called LIVAS, will continue utilizing CALIPSO observations but also datasets from the upcoming ADM-Aeolus and EarthCARE ESA missions in order to provide a unique historical dataset of global aerosol and cloud vertical distributions, as well as respective trends in cloud cover, aerosol/cloud amount and variability of the natural and anthropogenic aerosol component. Additionally, our team is involved in Swarm magnetic field constellation, a new Earth Explorer mission in ESA's Living Planet Programme launched on November 22, 2013, as member of the validation team of the mission. Finally, assessment of heat wave risk and hazards is carried out systematically using MODIS satellite data.

  7. Updating Landsat time series of surface-reflectance composites and forest change products with new observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hermosilla, Txomin; Wulder, Michael A.; White, Joanne C.; Coops, Nicholas C.; Hobart, Geordie W.

    2017-12-01

    The use of time series satellite data allows for the temporally dense, systematic, transparent, and synoptic capture of land dynamics over time. Subsequent to the opening of the Landsat archive, several time series approaches for characterizing landscape change have been developed, often representing a particular analytical time window. The information richness and widespread utility of these time series data have created a need to maintain the currency of time series information via the addition of new data, as it becomes available. When an existing time series is temporally extended, it is critical that previously generated change information remains consistent, thereby not altering reported change statistics or science outcomes based on that change information. In this research, we investigate the impacts and implications of adding additional years to an existing 29-year annual Landsat time series for forest change. To do so, we undertook a spatially explicit comparison of the 29 overlapping years of a time series representing 1984-2012, with a time series representing 1984-2016. Surface reflectance values, and presence, year, and type of change were compared. We found that the addition of years to extend the time series had minimal effect on the annual surface reflectance composites, with slight band-specific differences (r ≥ 0.1) in the final years of the original time series being updated. The area of stand replacing disturbances and determination of change year are virtually unchanged for the overlapping period between the two time-series products. Over the overlapping temporal period (1984-2012), the total area of change differs by 0.53%, equating to an annual difference in change area of 0.019%. Overall, the spatial and temporal agreement of the changes detected by both time series was 96%. Further, our findings suggest that the entire pre-existing historic time series does not need to be re-processed during the update process. Critically, given the time

  8. Multiple Indicator Stationary Time Series Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen A.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses the propriety and practical advantages of specifying multivariate time series models in the context of structural equation modeling for time series and longitudinal panel data. For time series data, the multiple indicator model specification improves on classical time series analysis. For panel data, the multiple indicator model…

  9. Time Series Momentum

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Ooi, Yao Hua; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2012-01-01

    We document significant “time series momentum” in equity index, currency, commodity, and bond futures for each of the 58 liquid instruments we consider. We find persistence in returns for one to 12 months that partially reverses over longer horizons, consistent with sentiment theories of initial...... under-reaction and delayed over-reaction. A diversified portfolio of time series momentum strategies across all asset classes delivers substantial abnormal returns with little exposure to standard asset pricing factors and performs best during extreme markets. Examining the trading activities...

  10. International Work-Conference on Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Pomares, Héctor

    2016-01-01

    This volume presents selected peer-reviewed contributions from The International Work-Conference on Time Series, ITISE 2015, held in Granada, Spain, July 1-3, 2015. It discusses topics in time series analysis and forecasting, advanced methods and online learning in time series, high-dimensional and complex/big data time series as well as forecasting in real problems. The International Work-Conferences on Time Series (ITISE) provide a forum for scientists, engineers, educators and students to discuss the latest ideas and implementations in the foundations, theory, models and applications in the field of time series analysis and forecasting. It focuses on interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary research encompassing the disciplines of computer science, mathematics, statistics and econometrics.

  11. Time-Zone-Pattern Satellite Broadcasting Antenna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galindo, Victor; Rahmat-Samii, Yahya; Imbriale, William A.; Cohen, Herb; Cagnon, Ronald R.

    1988-01-01

    Direct-broadcast satellite antenna designs provide contoured beams to match four time zones in 48 contiguous states and spot beams for Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico presented in 29-page report. Includes descriptions of procedures used to arrive at optimized designs. Arrangements, amplitudes, and phases of antenna feeds presented in tables. Gain contours shown graphically. Additional tables of performance data given for cities in service area of Eastern satellite.

  12. Stochastic models for time series

    CERN Document Server

    Doukhan, Paul

    2018-01-01

    This book presents essential tools for modelling non-linear time series. The first part of the book describes the main standard tools of probability and statistics that directly apply to the time series context to obtain a wide range of modelling possibilities. Functional estimation and bootstrap are discussed, and stationarity is reviewed. The second part describes a number of tools from Gaussian chaos and proposes a tour of linear time series models. It goes on to address nonlinearity from polynomial or chaotic models for which explicit expansions are available, then turns to Markov and non-Markov linear models and discusses Bernoulli shifts time series models. Finally, the volume focuses on the limit theory, starting with the ergodic theorem, which is seen as the first step for statistics of time series. It defines the distributional range to obtain generic tools for limit theory under long or short-range dependences (LRD/SRD) and explains examples of LRD behaviours. More general techniques (central limit ...

  13. Graphical Data Analysis on the Circle: Wrap-Around Time Series Plots for (Interrupted) Time Series Designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Beasley, William Howard; Schuelke, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    Many data structures, particularly time series data, are naturally seasonal, cyclical, or otherwise circular. Past graphical methods for time series have focused on linear plots. In this article, we move graphical analysis onto the circle. We focus on 2 particular methods, one old and one new. Rose diagrams are circular histograms and can be produced in several different forms using the RRose software system. In addition, we propose, develop, illustrate, and provide software support for a new circular graphical method, called Wrap-Around Time Series Plots (WATS Plots), which is a graphical method useful to support time series analyses in general but in particular in relation to interrupted time series designs. We illustrate the use of WATS Plots with an interrupted time series design evaluating the effect of the Oklahoma City bombing on birthrates in Oklahoma County during the 10 years surrounding the bombing of the Murrah Building in Oklahoma City. We compare WATS Plots with linear time series representations and overlay them with smoothing and error bands. Each method is shown to have advantages in relation to the other; in our example, the WATS Plots more clearly show the existence and effect size of the fertility differential.

  14. Noise Reduction and Gap Filling of fAPAR Time Series Using an Adapted Local Regression Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro Moreno

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Time series of remotely sensed data are an important source of information for understanding land cover dynamics. In particular, the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (fAPAR is a key variable in the assessment of vegetation primary production over time. However, the fAPAR series derived from polar orbit satellites are not continuous and consistent in space and time. Filtering methods are thus required to fill in gaps and produce high-quality time series. This study proposes an adapted (iteratively reweighted local regression filter (LOESS and performs a benchmarking intercomparison with four popular and generally applicable smoothing methods: Double Logistic (DLOG, smoothing spline (SSP, Interpolation for Data Reconstruction (IDR and adaptive Savitzky-Golay (ASG. This paper evaluates the main advantages and drawbacks of the considered techniques. The results have shown that ASG and the adapted LOESS perform better in recovering fAPAR time series over multiple controlled noisy scenarios. Both methods can robustly reconstruct the fAPAR trajectories, reducing the noise up to 80% in the worst simulation scenario, which might be attributed to the quality control (QC MODIS information incorporated into these filtering algorithms, their flexibility and adaptation to the upper envelope. The adapted LOESS is particularly resistant to outliers. This method clearly outperforms the other considered methods to deal with the high presence of gaps and noise in satellite data records. The low RMSE and biases obtained with the LOESS method (|rMBE| < 8%; rRMSE < 20% reveals an optimal reconstruction even in most extreme situations with long seasonal gaps. An example of application of the LOESS method to fill in invalid values in real MODIS images presenting persistent cloud and snow coverage is also shown. The LOESS approach is recommended in most remote sensing applications, such as gap-filling, cloud-replacement, and observing temporal

  15. Time Series with Long Memory

    OpenAIRE

    西埜, 晴久

    2004-01-01

    The paper investigates an application of long-memory processes to economic time series. We show properties of long-memory processes, which are motivated to model a long-memory phenomenon in economic time series. An FARIMA model is described as an example of long-memory model in statistical terms. The paper explains basic limit theorems and estimation methods for long-memory processes in order to apply long-memory models to economic time series.

  16. Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen, Mutua; Gu, Changgui; Yang, Huijie

    2015-01-01

    Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq) and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

  17. Visibility Graph Based Time Series Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mutua Stephen

    Full Text Available Network based time series analysis has made considerable achievements in the recent years. By mapping mono/multivariate time series into networks, one can investigate both it's microscopic and macroscopic behaviors. However, most proposed approaches lead to the construction of static networks consequently providing limited information on evolutionary behaviors. In the present paper we propose a method called visibility graph based time series analysis, in which series segments are mapped to visibility graphs as being descriptions of the corresponding states and the successively occurring states are linked. This procedure converts a time series to a temporal network and at the same time a network of networks. Findings from empirical records for stock markets in USA (S&P500 and Nasdaq and artificial series generated by means of fractional Gaussian motions show that the method can provide us rich information benefiting short-term and long-term predictions. Theoretically, we propose a method to investigate time series from the viewpoint of network of networks.

  18. Mapping Two-Dimensional Deformation Field Time-Series of Large Slope by Coupling DInSAR-SBAS with MAI-SBAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liming He

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Mapping deformation field time-series, including vertical and horizontal motions, is vital for landslide monitoring and slope safety assessment. However, the conventional differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR technique can only detect the displacement component in the satellite-to-ground direction, i.e., line-of-sight (LOS direction displacement. To overcome this constraint, a new method was developed to obtain the displacement field time series of a slope by coupling DInSAR based small baseline subset approach (DInSAR-SBAS with multiple-aperture InSAR (MAI based small baseline subset approach (MAI-SBAS. This novel method has been applied to a set of 11 observations from the phased array type L-band synthetic aperture radar (PALSAR sensor onboard the advanced land observing satellite (ALOS, spanning from 2007 to 2011, of two large-scale north–south slopes of the largest Asian open-pit mine in the Northeast of China. The retrieved displacement time series showed that the proposed method can detect and measure the large displacements that occurred along the north–south direction, and the gradually changing two-dimensional displacement fields. Moreover, we verified this new method by comparing the displacement results to global positioning system (GPS measurements.

  19. Validation of Vegetation Index Time Series from Suomi NPP Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Using Tower Radiation Flux Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miura, T.; Kato, A.; Wang, J.; Vargas, M.; Lindquist, M.

    2015-12-01

    Satellite vegetation index (VI) time series data serve as an important means to monitor and characterize seasonal changes of terrestrial vegetation and their interannual variability. It is, therefore, critical to ensure quality of such VI products and one method of validating VI product quality is cross-comparison with in situ flux tower measurements. In this study, we evaluated the quality of VI time series derived from Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) spacecraft by cross-comparison with in situ radiation flux measurements at select flux tower sites over North America and Europe. VIIRS is a new polar-orbiting satellite sensor series, slated to replace National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer in the afternoon overpass and to continue the highly-calibrated data streams initiated with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer of National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Earth Observing System. The selected sites covered a wide range of biomes, including croplands, grasslands, evergreen needle forest, woody savanna, and open shrublands. The two VIIRS indices of the Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the atmospherically-corrected, Top-of-Canopy (TOC) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (daily, 375 m spatial resolution) were compared against the TOC NDVI and a two-band version of EVI (EVI2) calculated from tower radiation flux measurements, respectively. VIIRS and Tower VI time series showed comparable seasonal profiles across biomes with statistically significant correlations (> 0.60; p-value 0.95), with mean differences of 2.3 days and 5.0 days for the NDVI and the EVI, respectively. These results indicate that VIIRS VI time series can capture seasonal evolution of vegetated land surface as good as in situ radiometric measurements. Future studies that address biophysical or physiological interpretations

  20. Monitoring Farmland Loss Caused by Urbanization in Beijing from Modis Time Series Using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Y.; Meng, Y.; Chen, Y. X.; Jiang, C.; Yue, A. Z.

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we proposed a method to map urban encroachment onto farmland using satellite image time series (SITS) based on the hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM). In this method, the farmland change process is decomposed into three hierarchical levels, i.e., the land cover level, the vegetation phenology level, and the SITS level. Then a three-level HHMM is constructed to model the multi-level semantic structure of farmland change process. Once the HHMM is established, a change from farmland to built-up could be detected by inferring the underlying state sequence that is most likely to generate the input time series. The performance of the method is evaluated on MODIS time series in Beijing. Results on both simulated and real datasets demonstrate that our method improves the change detection accuracy compared with the HMM-based method.

  1. Local wavelet correlation: applicationto timing analysis of multi-satellite CLUSTER data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Soucek

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Multi-spacecraft space observations, such as those of CLUSTER, can be used to infer information about local plasma structures by exploiting the timing differences between subsequent encounters of these structures by individual satellites. We introduce a novel wavelet-based technique, the Local Wavelet Correlation (LWC, which allows one to match the corresponding signatures of large-scale structures in the data from multiple spacecraft and determine the relative time shifts between the crossings. The LWC is especially suitable for analysis of strongly non-stationary time series, where it enables one to estimate the time lags in a more robust and systematic way than ordinary cross-correlation techniques. The technique, together with its properties and some examples of its application to timing analysis of bow shock and magnetopause crossing observed by CLUSTER, are presented. We also compare the performance and reliability of the technique with classical discontinuity analysis methods. Key words. Radio science (signal processing – Space plasma physics (discontinuities; instruments and techniques

  2. Network structure of multivariate time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacasa, Lucas; Nicosia, Vincenzo; Latora, Vito

    2015-10-21

    Our understanding of a variety of phenomena in physics, biology and economics crucially depends on the analysis of multivariate time series. While a wide range tools and techniques for time series analysis already exist, the increasing availability of massive data structures calls for new approaches for multidimensional signal processing. We present here a non-parametric method to analyse multivariate time series, based on the mapping of a multidimensional time series into a multilayer network, which allows to extract information on a high dimensional dynamical system through the analysis of the structure of the associated multiplex network. The method is simple to implement, general, scalable, does not require ad hoc phase space partitioning, and is thus suitable for the analysis of large, heterogeneous and non-stationary time series. We show that simple structural descriptors of the associated multiplex networks allow to extract and quantify nontrivial properties of coupled chaotic maps, including the transition between different dynamical phases and the onset of various types of synchronization. As a concrete example we then study financial time series, showing that a multiplex network analysis can efficiently discriminate crises from periods of financial stability, where standard methods based on time-series symbolization often fail.

  3. What marketing scholars should know about time series analysis : time series applications in marketing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horváth, Csilla; Kornelis, Marcel; Leeflang, Peter S.H.

    2002-01-01

    In this review, we give a comprehensive summary of time series techniques in marketing, and discuss a variety of time series analysis (TSA) techniques and models. We classify them in the sets (i) univariate TSA, (ii) multivariate TSA, and (iii) multiple TSA. We provide relevant marketing

  4. A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Relationship Between Near-Surface Air Temperature and Satellite Land Surface Temperatures Using 17 Years of Data from the ATSR Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, D.; Good, E.; Bulgin, C.; Remedios, J. J.

    2017-12-01

    Surface temperatures (ST) over land have traditionally been measured at weather stations. There are many parts of the globe with very few stations, e.g. across much of Africa, leading to gaps in ST datasets, affecting our understanding of how ST is changing, and the impacts of extreme events. Satellites can provide global ST data but these observations represent how hot the land ST (LST; including the uppermost parts of e.g. trees, buildings) is to touch, whereas stations measure the air temperature just above the surface (T2m). Satellite LST data may only be available in cloud-free conditions and data records are frequently climate studies. In this study, the relationship between clear-sky satellite LST and all-sky T2m is characterised in space and time using >17 years of data. The analysis uses a new monthly LST climate data record (CDR) based on the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) series, which has been produced within the European Space Agency GlobTemperature project. The results demonstrate the dependency of the global LST-T2m differences on location, land cover, vegetation and elevation. LSTnight ( 10 pm local solar time) is found to be closely coupled with minimum T2m (Tmin) and the two temperatures generally consistent to within ±5 °C (global median LSTnight- Tmin= 1.8 °C, interquartile range = 3.8 °C). The LSTday ( 10 am local time)-maximum T2m (Tmax) variability is higher because LST is strongly influenced by insolation and surface regime (global median LSTday-Tmax= -0.1 °C, interquartile range = 8.1 °C). Correlations for both temperature pairs are typically >0.9 outside of the tropics. A crucial aspect of this study is a comparison between the monthly global anomaly time series of LST and CRUTEM4 T2m. The time series agree remarkably well, with a correlation of 0.9 and 90% of the CDR anomalies falling within the T2m 95% confidence limits (see figure). This analysis provides independent verification of the 1995-2012 T2m anomaly time series

  5. Data mining in time series databases

    CERN Document Server

    Kandel, Abraham; Bunke, Horst

    2004-01-01

    Adding the time dimension to real-world databases produces Time SeriesDatabases (TSDB) and introduces new aspects and difficulties to datamining and knowledge discovery. This book covers the state-of-the-artmethodology for mining time series databases. The novel data miningmethods presented in the book include techniques for efficientsegmentation, indexing, and classification of noisy and dynamic timeseries. A graph-based method for anomaly detection in time series isdescribed and the book also studies the implications of a novel andpotentially useful representation of time series as strings. Theproblem of detecting changes in data mining models that are inducedfrom temporal databases is additionally discussed.

  6. Models for dependent time series

    CERN Document Server

    Tunnicliffe Wilson, Granville; Haywood, John

    2015-01-01

    Models for Dependent Time Series addresses the issues that arise and the methodology that can be applied when the dependence between time series is described and modeled. Whether you work in the economic, physical, or life sciences, the book shows you how to draw meaningful, applicable, and statistically valid conclusions from multivariate (or vector) time series data.The first four chapters discuss the two main pillars of the subject that have been developed over the last 60 years: vector autoregressive modeling and multivariate spectral analysis. These chapters provide the foundational mater

  7. On the Impact of a Quadratic Acceleration Term in the Analysis of Position Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogusz, Janusz; Klos, Anna; Bos, Machiel Simon; Hunegnaw, Addisu; Teferle, Felix Norman

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time series generally assumes that each of the coordinate component series is described by the sum of a linear rate (velocity) and various periodic terms. The residuals, the deviations between the fitted model and the observations, are then a measure of the epoch-to-epoch scatter and have been used for the analysis of the stochastic character (noise) of the time series. Often the parameters of interest in GNSS position time series are the velocities and their associated uncertainties, which have to be determined with the highest reliability. It is clear that not all GNSS position time series follow this simple linear behaviour. Therefore, we have added an acceleration term in the form of a quadratic polynomial function to the model in order to better describe the non-linear motion in the position time series. This non-linear motion could be a response to purely geophysical processes, for example, elastic rebound of the Earth's crust due to ice mass loss in Greenland, artefacts due to deficiencies in bias mitigation models, for example, of the GNSS satellite and receiver antenna phase centres, or any combination thereof. In this study we have simulated 20 time series with different stochastic characteristics such as white, flicker or random walk noise of length of 23 years. The noise amplitude was assumed at 1 mm/y-/4. Then, we added the deterministic part consisting of a linear trend of 20 mm/y (that represents the averaged horizontal velocity) and accelerations ranging from minus 0.6 to plus 0.6 mm/y2. For all these data we estimated the noise parameters with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) using the Hector software package without taken into account the non-linear term. In this way we set the benchmark to then investigate how the noise properties and velocity uncertainty may be affected by any un-modelled, non-linear term. The velocities and their uncertainties versus the accelerations for

  8. Visual time series analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a platform which supplies an easy-to-handle, interactive, extendable, and fast analysis tool for time series analysis. In contrast to other software suits like Maple, Matlab, or R, which use a command-line-like interface and where the user has to memorize/look-up the appropriate...... commands, our application is select-and-click-driven. It allows to derive many different sequences of deviations for a given time series and to visualize them in different ways in order to judge their expressive power and to reuse the procedure found. For many transformations or model-ts, the user may...... choose between manual and automated parameter selection. The user can dene new transformations and add them to the system. The application contains efficient implementations of advanced and recent techniques for time series analysis including techniques related to extreme value analysis and filtering...

  9. A Review of Subsequence Time Series Clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyedjamal Zolhavarieh

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Clustering of subsequence time series remains an open issue in time series clustering. Subsequence time series clustering is used in different fields, such as e-commerce, outlier detection, speech recognition, biological systems, DNA recognition, and text mining. One of the useful fields in the domain of subsequence time series clustering is pattern recognition. To improve this field, a sequence of time series data is used. This paper reviews some definitions and backgrounds related to subsequence time series clustering. The categorization of the literature reviews is divided into three groups: preproof, interproof, and postproof period. Moreover, various state-of-the-art approaches in performing subsequence time series clustering are discussed under each of the following categories. The strengths and weaknesses of the employed methods are evaluated as potential issues for future studies.

  10. A review of subsequence time series clustering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolhavarieh, Seyedjamal; Aghabozorgi, Saeed; Teh, Ying Wah

    2014-01-01

    Clustering of subsequence time series remains an open issue in time series clustering. Subsequence time series clustering is used in different fields, such as e-commerce, outlier detection, speech recognition, biological systems, DNA recognition, and text mining. One of the useful fields in the domain of subsequence time series clustering is pattern recognition. To improve this field, a sequence of time series data is used. This paper reviews some definitions and backgrounds related to subsequence time series clustering. The categorization of the literature reviews is divided into three groups: preproof, interproof, and postproof period. Moreover, various state-of-the-art approaches in performing subsequence time series clustering are discussed under each of the following categories. The strengths and weaknesses of the employed methods are evaluated as potential issues for future studies.

  11. A Review of Subsequence Time Series Clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Ying Wah

    2014-01-01

    Clustering of subsequence time series remains an open issue in time series clustering. Subsequence time series clustering is used in different fields, such as e-commerce, outlier detection, speech recognition, biological systems, DNA recognition, and text mining. One of the useful fields in the domain of subsequence time series clustering is pattern recognition. To improve this field, a sequence of time series data is used. This paper reviews some definitions and backgrounds related to subsequence time series clustering. The categorization of the literature reviews is divided into three groups: preproof, interproof, and postproof period. Moreover, various state-of-the-art approaches in performing subsequence time series clustering are discussed under each of the following categories. The strengths and weaknesses of the employed methods are evaluated as potential issues for future studies. PMID:25140332

  12. Analysis of Heavy-Tailed Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Xiaolei

    This thesis is about analysis of heavy-tailed time series. We discuss tail properties of real-world equity return series and investigate the possibility that a single tail index is shared by all return series of actively traded equities in a market. Conditions for this hypothesis to be true...... are identified. We study the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of sample covariance and sample auto-covariance matrices of multivariate heavy-tailed time series, and particularly for time series with very high dimensions. Asymptotic approximations of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of such matrices are found...... and expressed in terms of the parameters of the dependence structure, among others. Furthermore, we study an importance sampling method for estimating rare-event probabilities of multivariate heavy-tailed time series generated by matrix recursion. We show that the proposed algorithm is efficient in the sense...

  13. Tracking Large Area Mangrove Deforestation with Time-Series of High Fidelity MODIS Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, A. F.; Dragoni, D.; Didan, K.

    2011-12-01

    Mangrove forests are important coastal ecosystems of the tropical and subtropical regions. These forests provide critical ecosystem services, fulfill important socio-economic and environmental functions, and support coastal livelihoods. But these forest are also among the most vulnerable ecosystems, both to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Yet, there exists no map or published study showing detailed spatiotemporal trends of mangrove deforestation at local to regional scales. There is an immediate need of producing such detailed maps to further study the drivers, impacts and feedbacks of anthropogenic and climate factors on mangrove deforestation, and to develop local and regional scale adaptation/mitigation strategies. In this study we use a time-series of high fidelity imagery from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for tracking changes in the greenness of mangrove forests of Kalimantan Island of Indonesia. A novel method of filtering satellite data for cloud, aerosol, and view angle effects was used to produce high fidelity MODIS time-series images at 250-meter spatial resolution and three-month temporal resolution for the period of 2000-2010. Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2), a measure of vegetation greenness, was calculated from these images for each pixel at each time interval. Temporal variations in the EVI2 of each pixel were tracked as a proxy to deforestaton of mangroves using the statistical method of change-point analysis. Results of these change detection were validated using Monte Carlo simulation, photographs from Google-Earth, finer spatial resolution images from Landsat satellite, and ground based GIS data.

  14. Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiwen Mei

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape. Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite precipitation exhibits good agreement with the reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of the time series shows a significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with a high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

  15. Adaptive time-variant models for fuzzy-time-series forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Wai-Keung; Bai, Enjian; Chu, Alice Wai-Ching

    2010-12-01

    A fuzzy time series has been applied to the prediction of enrollment, temperature, stock indices, and other domains. Related studies mainly focus on three factors, namely, the partition of discourse, the content of forecasting rules, and the methods of defuzzification, all of which greatly influence the prediction accuracy of forecasting models. These studies use fixed analysis window sizes for forecasting. In this paper, an adaptive time-variant fuzzy-time-series forecasting model (ATVF) is proposed to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed model automatically adapts the analysis window size of fuzzy time series based on the prediction accuracy in the training phase and uses heuristic rules to generate forecasting values in the testing phase. The performance of the ATVF model is tested using both simulated and actual time series including the enrollments at the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX). The experiment results show that the proposed ATVF model achieves a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy as compared to other fuzzy-time-series forecasting models.

  16. New GOES satellite synchronized time code generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fossler, D. E.; Olson, R. K.

    1984-01-01

    The TRAK Systems' GOES Satellite Synchronized Time Code Generator is described. TRAK Systems has developed this timing instrument to supply improved accuracy over most existing GOES receiver clocks. A classical time code generator is integrated with a GOES receiver.

  17. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example

    CERN Document Server

    Bisgaard, Soren

    2011-01-01

    An intuition-based approach enables you to master time series analysis with ease Time Series Analysis and Forecasting by Example provides the fundamental techniques in time series analysis using various examples. By introducing necessary theory through examples that showcase the discussed topics, the authors successfully help readers develop an intuitive understanding of seemingly complicated time series models and their implications. The book presents methodologies for time series analysis in a simplified, example-based approach. Using graphics, the authors discuss each presented example in

  18. Time series with tailored nonlinearities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räth, C.; Laut, I.

    2015-10-01

    It is demonstrated how to generate time series with tailored nonlinearities by inducing well-defined constraints on the Fourier phases. Correlations between the phase information of adjacent phases and (static and dynamic) measures of nonlinearities are established and their origin is explained. By applying a set of simple constraints on the phases of an originally linear and uncorrelated Gaussian time series, the observed scaling behavior of the intensity distribution of empirical time series can be reproduced. The power law character of the intensity distributions being typical for, e.g., turbulence and financial data can thus be explained in terms of phase correlations.

  19. Monitoring Springs in the Mojave Desert Using Landsat Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, Christopher S.

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study, based on Landsat satellite data was to characterize variations and trends over 30 consecutive years (1985-2016) in perennial vegetation green cover at over 400 confirmed Mojave Desert spring locations. These springs were surveyed between in 2015 and 2016 on lands managed in California by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and on several land trusts within the Barstow, Needles, and Ridgecrest BLM Field Offices. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from July Landsat images was computed at each spring location and a trend model was first fit to the multi-year NDVI time series using least squares linear regression.Â

  20. Clustering of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Urso, Pierpaolo; Cappelli, Carmela; Di Lallo, Dario; Massari, Riccardo

    2013-05-01

    This paper addresses the topic of classifying financial time series in a fuzzy framework proposing two fuzzy clustering models both based on GARCH models. In general clustering of financial time series, due to their peculiar features, needs the definition of suitable distance measures. At this aim, the first fuzzy clustering model exploits the autoregressive representation of GARCH models and employs, in the framework of a partitioning around medoids algorithm, the classical autoregressive metric. The second fuzzy clustering model, also based on partitioning around medoids algorithm, uses the Caiado distance, a Mahalanobis-like distance, based on estimated GARCH parameters and covariances that takes into account the information about the volatility structure of time series. In order to illustrate the merits of the proposed fuzzy approaches an application to the problem of classifying 29 time series of Euro exchange rates against international currencies is presented and discussed, also comparing the fuzzy models with their crisp version.

  1. Shifts in Arctic phenology in response to climate and anthropogenic factors as detected from multiple satellite time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Heqing; Jia, Gensuo; Forbes, Bruce C

    2013-01-01

    There is an urgent need to reduce the uncertainties in remotely sensed detection of phenological shifts of high latitude ecosystems in response to climate changes in past decades. In this study, vegetation phenology in western Arctic Russia (the Yamal Peninsula) was investigated by analyzing and comparing Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and SPOT-Vegetation (VGT) during the decade 2000–2010. The spatial patterns of key phenological parameters were highly heterogeneous along the latitudinal gradients based on multi-satellite data. There was earlier SOS (start of the growing season), later EOS (end of the growing season), longer LOS (length of the growing season), and greater MaxNDVI from north to south in the region. The results based on MODIS and VGT data showed similar trends in phenological changes from 2000 to 2010, while quite a different trend was found based on AVHRR data from 2000 to 2008. A significantly delayed EOS (p < 0.01), thus increasing the LOS, was found from AVHRR data, while no similar trends were detected from MODIS and VGT data. There were no obvious shifts in MaxNDVI during the last decade. MODIS and VGT data were considered to be preferred data for monitoring vegetation phenology in northern high latitudes. Temperature is still a key factor controlling spatial phenological gradients and variability, while anthropogenic factors (reindeer husbandry and resource exploitation) might explain the delayed SOS in southern Yamal. Continuous environmental damage could trigger a positive feedback to the delayed SOS. (letter)

  2. A near real-time satellite-based global drought climate data record

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid

    2012-01-01

    Reliable drought monitoring requires long-term and continuous precipitation data. High resolution satellite measurements provide valuable precipitation information on a quasi-global scale. However, their short lengths of records limit their applications in drought monitoring. In addition to this limitation, long-term low resolution satellite-based gauge-adjusted data sets such as the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) one are not available in near real-time form for timely drought monitoring. This study bridges the gap between low resolution long-term satellite gauge-adjusted data and the emerging high resolution satellite precipitation data sets to create a long-term climate data record of droughts. To accomplish this, a Bayesian correction algorithm is used to combine GPCP data with real-time satellite precipitation data sets for drought monitoring and analysis. The results showed that the combined data sets after the Bayesian correction were a significant improvement compared to the uncorrected data. Furthermore, several recent major droughts such as the 2011 Texas, 2010 Amazon and 2010 Horn of Africa droughts were detected in the combined real-time and long-term satellite observations. This highlights the potential application of satellite precipitation data for regional to global drought monitoring. The final product is a real-time data-driven satellite-based standardized precipitation index that can be used for drought monitoring especially over remote and/or ungauged regions. (letter)

  3. ALBEDO PATTERN RECOGNITION AND TIME-SERIES ANALYSES IN MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Salleh

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Pattern recognition and time-series analyses will enable one to evaluate and generate predictions of specific phenomena. The albedo pattern and time-series analyses are very much useful especially in relation to climate condition monitoring. This study is conducted to seek for Malaysia albedo pattern changes. The pattern recognition and changes will be useful for variety of environmental and climate monitoring researches such as carbon budgeting and aerosol mapping. The 10 years (2000–2009 MODIS satellite images were used for the analyses and interpretation. These images were being processed using ERDAS Imagine remote sensing software, ArcGIS 9.3, the 6S code for atmospherical calibration and several MODIS tools (MRT, HDF2GIS, Albedo tools. There are several methods for time-series analyses were explored, this paper demonstrates trends and seasonal time-series analyses using converted HDF format MODIS MCD43A3 albedo land product. The results revealed significance changes of albedo percentages over the past 10 years and the pattern with regards to Malaysia's nebulosity index (NI and aerosol optical depth (AOD. There is noticeable trend can be identified with regards to its maximum and minimum value of the albedo. The rise and fall of the line graph show a similar trend with regards to its daily observation. The different can be identified in term of the value or percentage of rises and falls of albedo. Thus, it can be concludes that the temporal behavior of land surface albedo in Malaysia have a uniform behaviours and effects with regards to the local monsoons. However, although the average albedo shows linear trend with nebulosity index, the pattern changes of albedo with respects to the nebulosity index indicates that there are external factors that implicates the albedo values, as the sky conditions and its diffusion plotted does not have uniform trend over the years, especially when the trend of 5 years interval is examined, 2000 shows high

  4. Data Mining Smart Energy Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janina POPEANGA

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available With the advent of smart metering technology the amount of energy data will increase significantly and utilities industry will have to face another big challenge - to find relationships within time-series data and even more - to analyze such huge numbers of time series to find useful patterns and trends with fast or even real-time response. This study makes a small review of the literature in the field, trying to demonstrate how essential is the application of data mining techniques in the time series to make the best use of this large quantity of data, despite all the difficulties. Also, the most important Time Series Data Mining techniques are presented, highlighting their applicability in the energy domain.

  5. The Use of Sentinel-1 Time-Series Data to Improve Flood Monitoring in Arid Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro Martinis

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Due to the similarity of the radar backscatter over open water and over sand surfaces a reliable near real-time flood mapping based on satellite radar sensors is usually not possible in arid areas. Within this study, an approach is presented to enhance the results of an automatic Sentinel-1 flood processing chain by removing overestimations of the water extent related to low-backscattering sand surfaces using a Sand Exclusion Layer (SEL derived from time-series statistics of Sentinel-1 data sets. The methodology was tested and validated on a flood event in May 2016 at Webi Shabelle River, Somalia and Ethiopia, which has been covered by a time-series of 202 Sentinel-1 scenes within the period June 2014 to May 2017. The approach proved capable of significantly improving the classification accuracy of the Sentinel-1 flood service within this study site. The Overall Accuracy increased by ~5% to a value of 98.5% and the User’s Accuracy increased by 25.2% to a value of 96.0%. Experimental results have shown that the classification accuracy is influenced by several parameters such as the lengths of the time-series used for generating the SEL.

  6. Predicting chaotic time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, J.D.; Sidorowich, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    We present a forecasting technique for chaotic data. After embedding a time series in a state space using delay coordinates, we ''learn'' the induced nonlinear mapping using local approximation. This allows us to make short-term predictions of the future behavior of a time series, using information based only on past values. We present an error estimate for this technique, and demonstrate its effectiveness by applying it to several examples, including data from the Mackey-Glass delay differential equation, Rayleigh-Benard convection, and Taylor-Couette flow

  7. Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Ulsig

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI. This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI, which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MODIS-based estimates of phenology in an evergreen conifer forest. Timings of the start and end of the growing season (SGS and EGS were derived from a 13-year-long time series of PRI and NDVI based on a MAIAC (multi-angle implementation of atmospheric correction processed MODIS dataset and standard MODIS NDVI product data. The derived dates were validated with phenology estimates from ground-based flux tower measurements of ecosystem productivity. Significant correlations were found between the MAIAC time series and ground-estimated SGS (R2 = 0.36–0.8, which is remarkable since previous studies have found it difficult to observe inter-annual phenological variations in evergreen vegetation from satellite data. The considerably noisier NDVI product could not accurately predict SGS, and EGS could not be derived successfully from any of the time series. While the strongest relationship overall was found between SGS derived from the ground data and PRI, MAIAC NDVI exhibited high correlations with SGS more consistently (R2 > 0.6 in all cases. The results suggest that PRI can serve as an effective indicator of spring seasonal transitions, however, additional work is necessary to confirm the relationships observed and to further explore the usefulness of MODIS PRI for detecting phenology.

  8. Measuring multiscaling in financial time-series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buonocore, R.J.; Aste, T.; Di Matteo, T.

    2016-01-01

    We discuss the origin of multiscaling in financial time-series and investigate how to best quantify it. Our methodology consists in separating the different sources of measured multifractality by analyzing the multi/uni-scaling behavior of synthetic time-series with known properties. We use the results from the synthetic time-series to interpret the measure of multifractality of real log-returns time-series. The main finding is that the aggregation horizon of the returns can introduce a strong bias effect on the measure of multifractality. This effect can become especially important when returns distributions have power law tails with exponents in the range (2, 5). We discuss the right aggregation horizon to mitigate this bias.

  9. Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Vinod, Deepak; Aghion, Erez; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Metzler, Ralf

    2017-06-01

    We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.

  10. Applied time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Woodward, Wayne A; Elliott, Alan C

    2011-01-01

    ""There is scarcely a standard technique that the reader will find left out … this book is highly recommended for those requiring a ready introduction to applicable methods in time series and serves as a useful resource for pedagogical purposes.""-International Statistical Review (2014), 82""Current time series theory for practice is well summarized in this book.""-Emmanuel Parzen, Texas A&M University""What an extraordinary range of topics covered, all very insightfully. I like [the authors'] innovations very much, such as the AR factor table.""-David Findley, U.S. Census Bureau (retired)""…

  11. Time series of low-degree geopotential coefficients from SLR data: estimation of Earth's figure axis and LOD variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luceri, V.; Sciarretta, C.; Bianco, G.

    2012-12-01

    The redistribution of the mass within the earth system induces changes in the Earth's gravity field. In particular, the second-degree geopotential coefficients reflect the behaviour of the Earth's inertia tensor of order 2, describing the main mass variations of our planet impacting the EOPs. Thanks to the long record of accurate and continuous laser ranging observations to Lageos and other geodetic satellites, SLR is the only current space technique capable to monitor the long time variability of the Earth's gravity field with adequate accuracy. Time series of low-degree geopotential coefficients are estimated with our analysis of SLR data (spanning more than 25 years) from several geodetic satellites in order to detect trends and periodic variations related to tidal effects and atmospheric/oceanic mass variations. This study is focused on the variations of the second-degree Stokes coefficients related to the Earth's principal figure axis and oblateness: C21, S21 and C20. On the other hand, surface mass load variations induce excitations in the EOPs that are proportional to the same second-degree coefficients. The time series of direct estimates of low degree geopotential and those derived from the EOP excitation functions are compared and presented together with their time and frequency analysis.

  12. Efficient Maize and Sunflower Multi-year Mapping with NDVI Time Series of HJ-1A/1B in Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, B.; Shang, S.

    2016-12-01

    Food shortage is one of the major challenges that human beings are facing. It is urgent to improve the monitoring of the plantation and distribution of the main crops to solve the following economic and social issues. Recently, with the extensive use of remote sensing satellite data, it has provided favorable conditions for crop identification in large irrigation district with complex planting structure. Difference of different crop phenology is the main basis for crop identification, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time-series could better delineate crop phenology cycle. Therefore, the key of crop identification is to obtain high quality NDVI time-series. MODIS and Landsat TM satellite images are the most frequently used, however, neither of them could guarantee high temporal and spatial resolutions at once. Accordingly, this paper makes use of NDVI time-series extracted from China Environment Satellites data, which has two-day-repeat temporal and 30m spatial resolutions. The NDVI time-series are fitted with an asymmetric logistic curve, the fitting effect is good and the correlation coefficient is greater than 0.9. The phonological parameters are derived from NDVI fitting curves, and crop identification is carried out by different relation ellipses between NDVI and its phonological parameters of different crops. This paper takes Hetao Irrigation District of Inner Mongolia as an example, to identify multi-year maize and sunflower in the district, and the identification result is good. Compared with the official statistics, the relative errors are both lower than 5%. The results show that the NDVI time-series dataset derived from HJ-1A/1B CCD could delineate the crop phenology cycle accurately and demonstrate its application in crop identification in irrigated district.

  13. Crop Mapping Using PROBA-V Time Series Data at the Yucheng and Hongxing Farm in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Zhang

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available PROBA-V is a new global vegetation monitoring satellite launched in the second quarter of 2013 that provides data with a 100 m to 1 km spatial resolution and a daily to 10-day temporal resolution in the visible and near infrared (VNIR bands. A major mission of the PROBA-V satellite is global agriculture monitoring, in which the accuracy of crop mapping plays a key role. In countries such as China, crop fields are typically small, in assorted shapes and with various management approaches, which deem traditional methods of crop identification ineffective, and accuracy is highly dependent on image resolution and acquisition time. The five-day temporal and 100 m spatial resolution PROBA-V data make it possible to automatically identify crops using time series phenological information. This paper takes advantage of the improved spatial and temporal resolution of the PROBA-V data, to map crops at the Yucheng site in Shandong Province and the Hongxing farm in Heilongjiang province of China. First, the Swets filter algorithm was employed to eliminate noisy pixels and fill in data gaps on time series data during the growing season. Then, the crops are classified based on the Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique (ISODATA clustering, the maximum likelihood method (MLC and similarity analysis. The mapping results were validated using field-collected crop type polygons and high resolution crop maps based on GaoFen-1 satellite (GF-1 data in 16 m resolution. Our study showed that, for the Yucheng site, the cropping system is simple, mainly dominated by winter wheat–maize rotation. The overall accuracy of crop identification was 73.39% which was slightly better than the result derived from MODIS data. For the Hongxing farm, the cropping system is more complex (i.e., more than three types of crops were planted. The overall accuracy of the crop mapping by PROBA-V was 73.29% which was significantly higher than the MODIS product (46.81%. This study

  14. Gridding artifacts on ENVISAT/MERIS temporal series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gómez Chova, L.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Alonso, L.; Guanter, L.; Amoros-Lopez, J.; Camps-Valls, G.; Moreno, J.; Lacoste-Francis, H.

    2010-01-01

    Earth observation satellites are a valuable source of data that can be used to better understand the Earth system dynamics. However, analysis of satellite image time series requires an accurate spatial co-registration so that the multi-temporal pixel entities offer a true temporal view of the study

  15. Entropic Analysis of Electromyography Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufman, Miron; Sung, Paul

    2005-03-01

    We are in the process of assessing the effectiveness of fractal and entropic measures for the diagnostic of low back pain from surface electromyography (EMG) time series. Surface electromyography (EMG) is used to assess patients with low back pain. In a typical EMG measurement, the voltage is measured every millisecond. We observed back muscle fatiguing during one minute, which results in a time series with 60,000 entries. We characterize the complexity of time series by computing the Shannon entropy time dependence. The analysis of the time series from different relevant muscles from healthy and low back pain (LBP) individuals provides evidence that the level of variability of back muscle activities is much larger for healthy individuals than for individuals with LBP. In general the time dependence of the entropy shows a crossover from a diffusive regime to a regime characterized by long time correlations (self organization) at about 0.01s.

  16. Monitoring of Damage in Sunflower and Maize Parcels Using Radar and Optical Time Series Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    György Surek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to monitor the temporal behaviour of geometrical structural change of cropland affected by four different types of damage: weed infection, Western Corn Rootworm (WCR, storm damage, and drought by time series of different type of optical and quad-pol RADARSAT2 data. Based on our results it is established that ragweed infection in sunflower can be well identified by evaluation of radar (mid-June and optical (mid-August satellite images. Effect of drought in sunflower is well recognizable by spectral indices derived from optical as well as “I”-component of Shannon entropy (SEI from radar satellite images acquired during the first decade of July. Evaluation of radar and optical satellite images acquired between the last decade of July and mid-August proven to be the most efficient for detecting damages in maize fields caused by either by WCR or storm. Components of Shannon entropy are proven to have significant role in identification. Our project demonstrates the potential in integrated usage of polarimetric radar and optical satellite images for monitoring several types of agricultural damage.

  17. Global Warming: Evidence from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown on-board sequential, sun-synchronous, polar orbiting NOAA operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by the satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help the onboard warm black body temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically weighted global mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid-troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 K per decade (with an uncertainty of 0.05 K per decade) during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite deuced result.

  18. Quantifying memory in complex physiological time-series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirazi, Amir H; Raoufy, Mohammad R; Ebadi, Haleh; De Rui, Michele; Schiff, Sami; Mazloom, Roham; Hajizadeh, Sohrab; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar; Dehpour, Ahmad R; Amodio, Piero; Jafari, G Reza; Montagnese, Sara; Mani, Ali R

    2013-01-01

    In a time-series, memory is a statistical feature that lasts for a period of time and distinguishes the time-series from a random, or memory-less, process. In the present study, the concept of "memory length" was used to define the time period, or scale over which rare events within a physiological time-series do not appear randomly. The method is based on inverse statistical analysis and provides empiric evidence that rare fluctuations in cardio-respiratory time-series are 'forgotten' quickly in healthy subjects while the memory for such events is significantly prolonged in pathological conditions such as asthma (respiratory time-series) and liver cirrhosis (heart-beat time-series). The memory length was significantly higher in patients with uncontrolled asthma compared to healthy volunteers. Likewise, it was significantly higher in patients with decompensated cirrhosis compared to those with compensated cirrhosis and healthy volunteers. We also observed that the cardio-respiratory system has simple low order dynamics and short memory around its average, and high order dynamics around rare fluctuations.

  19. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  20. Reconstruction of MODIS total suspended matter time series maps by DINEOF and validation with autonomous platform data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nechad, Bouchra; Alvera-Azcaràte, Aida; Ruddick, Kevin; Greenwood, Naomi

    2011-08-01

    In situ measurements of total suspended matter (TSM) over the period 2003-2006, collected with two autonomous platforms from the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences (Cefas) measuring the optical backscatter (OBS) in the southern North Sea, are used to assess the accuracy of TSM time series extracted from satellite data. Since there are gaps in the remote sensing (RS) data, due mainly to cloud cover, the Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions (DINEOF) is used to fill in the TSM time series and build a continuous daily "recoloured" dataset. The RS datasets consist of TSM maps derived from MODIS imagery using the bio-optical model of Nechad et al. (Rem Sens Environ 114: 854-866, 2010). In this study, the DINEOF time series are compared to the in situ OBS measured in moderately to very turbid waters respectively in West Gabbard and Warp Anchorage, in the southern North Sea. The discrepancies between instantaneous RS, DINEOF-filled RS data and Cefas data are analysed in terms of TSM algorithm uncertainties, space-time variability and DINEOF reconstruction uncertainty.

  1. The Santander Atlantic Time-Series Station (SATS): A Time Series combination of a monthly hydrographic Station and The Biscay AGL Oceanic Observatory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavin, Alicia; Somavilla, Raquel; Cano, Daniel; Rodriguez, Carmen; Gonzalez-Pola, Cesar; Viloria, Amaia; Tel, Elena; Ruiz-Villareal, Manuel

    2017-04-01

    Long-Term Time Series Stations have been developed in order to document seasonal to decadal scale variations in key physical and biogeochemical parameters. Long-term time series measurements are crucial for determining the physical and biological mechanisms controlling the system. The Science and Technology Ministers of the G7 in their Tsukuba Communiqué have stated that 'many parts of the ocean interior are not sufficiently observed' and that 'it is crucial to develop far stronger scientific knowledge necessary to assess the ongoing changes in the ocean and their impact on economies.' Time series has been classically obtained by oceanographic ships that regularly cover standard sections and stations. From 1991, shelf and slope waters of the Southern Bay of Biscay are regularly sampled in a monthly hydrographic line north of Santander to a depth of 1000 m in early stages and for the whole water column down to 2580 m in recent times. Nearby, in June 2007, the IEO deployed an oceanic-meteorological buoy (AGL Buoy, 43° 50.67'N; 3° 46.20'W, and 40 km offshore, www.boya-agl.st.ieo.es). The Santander Atlantic Time Series Station is integrated in the Spanish Institute of Oceanography Observing Sistem (IEOOS). The long-term hydrographic monitoring has allowed to define the seasonality of the main oceanographic facts as the upwelling, the Iberian Poleward Current, low salinity incursions, trends and interannual variability at mixing layer, and at the main water masses North Atlantic Central Water and Mediterranean Water. The relation of these changes with the high frequency surface conditions recorded by the Biscay AGL has been examined using also satellite and reanalysis data. During the FIXO3 Project (Fixed-point Open Ocean Observatories), and using this combined sources, some products and quality controled series of high interest and utility for scientific purposes has been developed. Hourly products as Sea Surface Temperature and Salinity anomalies, wave significant

  2. Hybrid perturbation methods based on statistical time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    San-Juan, Juan Félix; San-Martín, Montserrat; Pérez, Iván; López, Rosario

    2016-04-01

    In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object. In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories, whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an additive Holt-Winters method.

  3. Understanding and Analyzing Latency of Near Real-time Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, W.; Jochum, M.; Brust, J.

    2016-12-01

    Acquiring and disseminating time-sensitive satellite data in a timely manner is much concerned by researchers and decision makers of weather forecast, severe weather warning, disaster and emergency response, environmental monitoring, and so on. Understanding and analyzing the latency of near real-time satellite data is very useful and helpful to explore the whole data transmission flow, indentify the possible issues, and connect data providers and users better. The STAR (Center for Satellite Applications and Research of NOAA) Central Data Repository (SCDR) is a central repository to acquire, manipulate, and disseminate various types of near real-time satellite datasets to internal and external users. In this system, important timestamps, including observation beginning/end, processing, uploading, downloading, and ingestion, are retrieved and organized in the database, so the time length of each transmission phase can be figured out easily. Open source NoSQL database MongoDB is selected to manage the timestamp information because of features of dynamic schema, aggregation and data processing. A user-friendly user interface is developed to visualize and characterize the latency interactively. Taking the Himawari-8 HSD (Himawari Standard Data) file as an example, the data transmission phases, including creating HSD file from satellite observation, uploading the file to HimawariCloud, updating file link in the webpage, downloading and ingesting the file to SCDR, are worked out from the above mentioned timestamps. The latencies can be observed by time of period, day of week, or hour of day in chart or table format, and the anomaly latencies can be detected and reported through the user interface. Latency analysis provides data providers and users actionable insight on how to improve the data transmission of near real-time satellite data, and enhance its acquisition and management.

  4. Statistical criteria for characterizing irradiance time series.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stein, Joshua S.; Ellis, Abraham; Hansen, Clifford W.

    2010-10-01

    We propose and examine several statistical criteria for characterizing time series of solar irradiance. Time series of irradiance are used in analyses that seek to quantify the performance of photovoltaic (PV) power systems over time. Time series of irradiance are either measured or are simulated using models. Simulations of irradiance are often calibrated to or generated from statistics for observed irradiance and simulations are validated by comparing the simulation output to the observed irradiance. Criteria used in this comparison should derive from the context of the analyses in which the simulated irradiance is to be used. We examine three statistics that characterize time series and their use as criteria for comparing time series. We demonstrate these statistics using observed irradiance data recorded in August 2007 in Las Vegas, Nevada, and in June 2009 in Albuquerque, New Mexico.

  5. Phenological Characterization of Desert Sky Island Vegetation Communities with Remotely Sensed and Climate Time Series Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stuart E. Marsh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and variability are expected to impact the synchronicity and interactions between the Sonoran Desert and the forested sky islands which represent steep biological and environmental gradients. The main objectives were to examine how well satellite greenness time series data and derived phenological metrics (e.g., season start, peak greenness can characterize specific vegetation communities across an elevation gradient, and to examine the interactions between climate and phenological metrics for each vegetation community. We found that representative vegetation types (11, varying between desert scrub, mesquite, grassland, mixed oak, juniper and pine, often had unique seasonal and interannual phenological trajectories and spatial patterns. Satellite derived land surface phenometrics (11 for each of the vegetation communities along the cline showed numerous distinct significant relationships in response to temperature (4 and precipitation (7 metrics. Satellite-derived sky island vegetation phenology can help assess and monitor vegetation dynamics and provide unique indicators of climate variability and patterns of change.

  6. Homogenising time series: beliefs, dogmas and facts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domonkos, P.

    2011-06-01

    In the recent decades various homogenisation methods have been developed, but the real effects of their application on time series are still not known sufficiently. The ongoing COST action HOME (COST ES0601) is devoted to reveal the real impacts of homogenisation methods more detailed and with higher confidence than earlier. As a part of the COST activity, a benchmark dataset was built whose characteristics approach well the characteristics of real networks of observed time series. This dataset offers much better opportunity than ever before to test the wide variety of homogenisation methods, and analyse the real effects of selected theoretical recommendations. Empirical results show that real observed time series usually include several inhomogeneities of different sizes. Small inhomogeneities often have similar statistical characteristics than natural changes caused by climatic variability, thus the pure application of the classic theory that change-points of observed time series can be found and corrected one-by-one is impossible. However, after homogenisation the linear trends, seasonal changes and long-term fluctuations of time series are usually much closer to the reality than in raw time series. Some problems around detecting multiple structures of inhomogeneities, as well as that of time series comparisons within homogenisation procedures are discussed briefly in the study.

  7. Ocean time-series near Bermuda: Hydrostation S and the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Anthony F.; Knap, Anthony H.

    1992-01-01

    Bermuda is the site of two ocean time-series programs. At Hydrostation S, the ongoing biweekly profiles of temperature, salinity and oxygen now span 37 years. This is one of the longest open-ocean time-series data sets and provides a view of decadal scale variability in ocean processes. In 1988, the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study began a wide range of measurements at a frequency of 14-18 cruises each year to understand temporal variability in ocean biogeochemistry. On each cruise, the data range from chemical analyses of discrete water samples to data from electronic packages of hydrographic and optics sensors. In addition, a range of biological and geochemical rate measurements are conducted that integrate over time-periods of minutes to days. This sampling strategy yields a reasonable resolution of the major seasonal patterns and of decadal scale variability. The Sargasso Sea also has a variety of episodic production events on scales of days to weeks and these are only poorly resolved. In addition, there is a substantial amount of mesoscale variability in this region and some of the perceived temporal patterns are caused by the intersection of the biweekly sampling with the natural spatial variability. In the Bermuda time-series programs, we have added a series of additional cruises to begin to assess these other sources of variation and their impacts on the interpretation of the main time-series record. However, the adequate resolution of higher frequency temporal patterns will probably require the introduction of new sampling strategies and some emerging technologies such as biogeochemical moorings and autonomous underwater vehicles.

  8. Multivariate Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

    2017-08-01

    Many time series are considered to be a superposition of several oscillation components. We have proposed a method for decomposing univariate time series into oscillation components and estimating their phases (Matsuda & Komaki, 2017 ). In this study, we extend that method to multivariate time series. We assume that several oscillators underlie the given multivariate time series and that each variable corresponds to a superposition of the projections of the oscillators. Thus, the oscillators superpose on each variable with amplitude and phase modulation. Based on this idea, we develop gaussian linear state-space models and use them to decompose the given multivariate time series. The model parameters are estimated from data using the empirical Bayes method, and the number of oscillators is determined using the Akaike information criterion. Therefore, the proposed method extracts underlying oscillators in a data-driven manner and enables investigation of phase dynamics in a given multivariate time series. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed method. From monthly mean north-south sunspot number data, the proposed method reveals an interesting phase relationship.

  9. CLASSIFICATION OF CROPLANDS THROUGH FUSION OF OPTICAL AND SAR TIME SERIES DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Park

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Many satellite sensors including Landsat series have been extensively used for land cover classification. Studies have been conducted to mitigate classification problems associated with the use of single data (e.g., such as cloud contamination through multi-sensor data fusion and the use of time series data. This study investigated two areas with different environment and climate conditions: one in South Korea and the other in US. Cropland classification was conducted by using multi-temporal Landsat 5, Radarsat-1 and digital elevation models (DEM based on two machine learning approaches (i.e., random forest and support vector machines. Seven classification scenarios were examined and evaluated through accuracy assessment. Results show that SVM produced the best performance (overall accuracy of 93.87% when using all temporal and spectral data as input variables. Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI, SAR backscattering, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were identified as more contributing variables than the others for cropland classification.

  10. Forecasting Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.

    The concept of fuzzy time series is introduced and used to forecast the enrollment of a university. Fuzzy time series, an aspect of fuzzy set theory, forecasts enrollment using a first-order time-invariant model. To evaluate the model, the conventional linear regression technique is applied and the predicted values obtained are compared to the…

  11. Time series from hyperion to track productivity in pivot agriculture in saudi arabia

    KAUST Repository

    Houborg, Rasmus

    2017-12-13

    The hyperspectral satellite sensing capacity is expected to increase substantially in the near future with the planned deployment of hyperspectral systems by both space agencies and commercial companies. These enhanced observational resources will offer new and improved ways to monitor the dynamics and characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems. This study investigates the utility of time series of hyperspectral imagery, acquired by Hyperion onboard EO-1, for quantifying variations in canopy chlorophyll (Chlc), plant productivity, and yield over an intensive farming area in the desert of Saudi Arabia. Chlc is estimated on the basis of predictive multi-variate empirical models established via a machine learning approach using a training dataset of in-situ measured target variables and explanatory hyperspectral indices. Resulting time series of Chlc are translated into Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Yield based on semi-empirical relationships, and evaluated against ground-based observations. Results indicate significant benefit in utilizing the full suite of hyperspectral indices over multi-spectral indices constructible from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2.

  12. Time series from hyperion to track productivity in pivot agriculture in saudi arabia

    KAUST Repository

    Houborg, Rasmus; McCabe, Matthew; Angel, Yoseline; Middleton, Elizabeth M.

    2017-01-01

    The hyperspectral satellite sensing capacity is expected to increase substantially in the near future with the planned deployment of hyperspectral systems by both space agencies and commercial companies. These enhanced observational resources will offer new and improved ways to monitor the dynamics and characteristics of terrestrial ecosystems. This study investigates the utility of time series of hyperspectral imagery, acquired by Hyperion onboard EO-1, for quantifying variations in canopy chlorophyll (Chlc), plant productivity, and yield over an intensive farming area in the desert of Saudi Arabia. Chlc is estimated on the basis of predictive multi-variate empirical models established via a machine learning approach using a training dataset of in-situ measured target variables and explanatory hyperspectral indices. Resulting time series of Chlc are translated into Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Yield based on semi-empirical relationships, and evaluated against ground-based observations. Results indicate significant benefit in utilizing the full suite of hyperspectral indices over multi-spectral indices constructible from Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2.

  13. Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrencies time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models in point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple and Ethereum. We apply a set of crypto–predictors and rely...

  14. Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrencies time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models in point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple and Ethereum. We apply a set of crypto–predictors and rely on Dynamic Model Averaging to combine a large set of univariate Dynamic Linear Models and several multivariate Vector Autoregressive models with different forms of time variation. We find statistical si...

  15. Using Landsat Spectral Indices in Time-Series to Assess Wildfire Disturbance and Recovery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Hislop

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Satellite earth observation is being increasingly used to monitor forests across the world. Freely available Landsat data stretching back four decades, coupled with advances in computer processing capabilities, has enabled new time-series techniques for analyzing forest change. Typically, these methods track individual pixel values over time, through the use of various spectral indices. This study examines the utility of eight spectral indices for characterizing fire disturbance and recovery in sclerophyll forests, in order to determine their relative merits in the context of Landsat time-series. Although existing research into Landsat indices is comprehensive, this study presents a new approach, by comparing the distributions of pre and post-fire pixels using Glass’s delta, for evaluating indices without the need of detailed field information. Our results show that in the sclerophyll forests of southeast Australia, common indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI and the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR, both accurately capture wildfire disturbance in a pixel-based time-series approach, especially if images from soon after the disturbance are available. However, for tracking forest regrowth and recovery, indices, such as NDVI, which typically capture chlorophyll concentration or canopy ‘greenness’, are not as reliable, with values returning to pre-fire levels in 3–5 years. In comparison, indices that are more sensitive to forest moisture and structure, such as NBR, indicate much longer (8–10 years recovery timeframes. This finding is consistent with studies that were conducted in other forest types. We also demonstrate that additional information regarding forest condition, particularly in relation to recovery, can be extracted from less well known indices, such as NBR2, as well as textural indices incorporating spatial variance. With Landsat time-series gaining in popularity in recent years, it is critical to

  16. Glacier Volume Change Estimation Using Time Series of Improved Aster Dems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girod, Luc; Nuth, Christopher; Kääb, Andreas

    2016-06-01

    Volume change data is critical to the understanding of glacier response to climate change. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) system embarked on the Terra (EOS AM-1) satellite has been a unique source of systematic stereoscopic images covering the whole globe at 15m resolution and at a consistent quality for over 15 years. While satellite stereo sensors with significantly improved radiometric and spatial resolution are available to date, the potential of ASTER data lies in its long consistent time series that is unrivaled, though not fully exploited for change analysis due to lack of data accuracy and precision. Here, we developed an improved method for ASTER DEM generation and implemented it in the open source photogrammetric library and software suite MicMac. The method relies on the computation of a rational polynomial coefficients (RPC) model and the detection and correction of cross-track sensor jitter in order to compute DEMs. ASTER data are strongly affected by attitude jitter, mainly of approximately 4 km and 30 km wavelength, and improving the generation of ASTER DEMs requires removal of this effect. Our sensor modeling does not require ground control points and allows thus potentially for the automatic processing of large data volumes. As a proof of concept, we chose a set of glaciers with reference DEMs available to assess the quality of our measurements. We use time series of ASTER scenes from which we extracted DEMs with a ground sampling distance of 15m. Our method directly measures and accounts for the cross-track component of jitter so that the resulting DEMs are not contaminated by this process. Since the along-track component of jitter has the same direction as the stereo parallaxes, the two cannot be separated and the elevations extracted are thus contaminated by along-track jitter. Initial tests reveal no clear relation between the cross-track and along-track components so that the latter seems not to be

  17. A Spatial Data Infrastructure Integrating Multisource Heterogeneous Geospatial Data and Time Series: A Study Case in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Bordogna

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Currently, the best practice to support land planning calls for the development of Spatial Data Infrastructures (SDI capable of integrating both geospatial datasets and time series information from multiple sources, e.g., multitemporal satellite data and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI. This paper describes an original OGC standard interoperable SDI architecture and a geospatial data and metadata workflow for creating and managing multisource heterogeneous geospatial datasets and time series, and discusses it in the framework of the Space4Agri project study case developed to support the agricultural sector in Lombardy region, Northern Italy. The main novel contributions go beyond the application domain for which the SDI has been developed and are the following: the ingestion within an a-centric SDI, potentially distributed in several nodes on the Internet to support scalability, of products derived by processing remote sensing images, authoritative data, georeferenced in-situ measurements and voluntary information (VGI created by farmers and agronomists using an original Smart App; the workflow automation for publishing sets and time series of heterogeneous multisource geospatial data and relative web services; and, finally, the project geoportal, that can ease the analysis of the geospatial datasets and time series by providing complex intelligent spatio-temporal query and answering facilities.

  18. Time series modeling, computation, and inference

    CERN Document Server

    Prado, Raquel

    2010-01-01

    The authors systematically develop a state-of-the-art analysis and modeling of time series. … this book is well organized and well written. The authors present various statistical models for engineers to solve problems in time series analysis. Readers no doubt will learn state-of-the-art techniques from this book.-Hsun-Hsien Chang, Computing Reviews, March 2012My favorite chapters were on dynamic linear models and vector AR and vector ARMA models.-William Seaver, Technometrics, August 2011… a very modern entry to the field of time-series modelling, with a rich reference list of the current lit

  19. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control

    CERN Document Server

    Box, George E P; Reinsel, Gregory C

    2011-01-01

    A modernized new edition of one of the most trusted books on time series analysis. Since publication of the first edition in 1970, Time Series Analysis has served as one of the most influential and prominent works on the subject. This new edition maintains its balanced presentation of the tools for modeling and analyzing time series and also introduces the latest developments that have occurred n the field over the past decade through applications from areas such as business, finance, and engineering. The Fourth Edition provides a clearly written exploration of the key methods for building, cl

  20. Characterising volcanic cycles at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat: Time series analysis of multi-parameter satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flower, Verity J. B.; Carn, Simon A.

    2015-10-01

    The identification of cyclic volcanic activity can elucidate underlying eruption dynamics and aid volcanic hazard mitigation. Whilst satellite datasets are often analysed individually, here we exploit the multi-platform NASA A-Train satellite constellation to cross-correlate cyclical signals identified using complementary measurement techniques at Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. In this paper we present a Multi-taper (MTM) Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis of coincident SO2 and thermal infrared (TIR) satellite measurements at SHV facilitating the identification of cyclical volcanic behaviour. These measurements were collected by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) (respectively) in the A-Train. We identify a correlating cycle in both the OMI and MODIS data (54-58 days), with this multi-week feature attributable to episodes of dome growth. The 50 day cycles were also identified in ground-based SO2 data at SHV, confirming the validity of our analysis and further corroborating the presence of this cycle at the volcano. In addition a 12 day cycle was identified in the OMI data, previously attributed to variable lava effusion rates on shorter timescales. OMI data also display a one week (7-8 days) cycle attributable to cyclical variations in viewing angle resulting from the orbital characteristics of the Aura satellite. Longer period cycles possibly relating to magma intrusion were identified in the OMI record (102-, 121-, and 159 days); in addition to a 238-day cycle identified in the MODIS data corresponding to periodic destabilisation of the lava dome. Through the analysis of reconstructions generated from cycles identified in the OMI and MODIS data, periods of unrest were identified, including the major dome collapse of 20th May 2006 and significant explosive event of 3rd January 2009. Our analysis confirms the potential for identification of cyclical volcanic activity through combined

  1. Costationarity of Locally Stationary Time Series Using costat

    OpenAIRE

    Cardinali, Alessandro; Nason, Guy P.

    2013-01-01

    This article describes the R package costat. This package enables a user to (i) perform a test for time series stationarity; (ii) compute and plot time-localized autocovariances, and (iii) to determine and explore any costationary relationship between two locally stationary time series. Two locally stationary time series are said to be costationary if there exists two time-varying combination functions such that the linear combination of the two series with the functions produces another time...

  2. Detecting nonlinear structure in time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theiler, J.

    1991-01-01

    We describe an approach for evaluating the statistical significance of evidence for nonlinearity in a time series. The formal application of our method requires the careful statement of a null hypothesis which characterizes a candidate linear process, the generation of an ensemble of ''surrogate'' data sets which are similar to the original time series but consistent with the null hypothesis, and the computation of a discriminating statistic for the original and for each of the surrogate data sets. The idea is to test the original time series against the null hypothesis by checking whether the discriminating statistic computed for the original time series differs significantly from the statistics computed for each of the surrogate sets. While some data sets very cleanly exhibit low-dimensional chaos, there are many cases where the evidence is sketchy and difficult to evaluate. We hope to provide a framework within which such claims of nonlinearity can be evaluated. 5 refs., 4 figs

  3. Introduction to time series and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Brockwell, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    This book is aimed at the reader who wishes to gain a working knowledge of time series and forecasting methods as applied to economics, engineering and the natural and social sciences. It assumes knowledge only of basic calculus, matrix algebra and elementary statistics. This third edition contains detailed instructions for the use of the professional version of the Windows-based computer package ITSM2000, now available as a free download from the Springer Extras website. The logic and tools of time series model-building are developed in detail. Numerous exercises are included and the software can be used to analyze and forecast data sets of the user's own choosing. The book can also be used in conjunction with other time series packages such as those included in R. The programs in ITSM2000 however are menu-driven and can be used with minimal investment of time in the computational details. The core of the book covers stationary processes, ARMA and ARIMA processes, multivariate time series and state-space mod...

  4. Mapping Canopy Damage from Understory Fires in Amazon Forests Using Annual Time Series of Landsat and MODIS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Douglas C.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Nagol, Jyoteshwar; Souza, Carlos M., Jr.; Kasischke, Eric S.; Hurtt, George C.; Dubayah, Ralph

    2011-01-01

    Understory fires in Amazon forests alter forest structure, species composition, and the likelihood of future disturbance. The annual extent of fire-damaged forest in Amazonia remains uncertain due to difficulties in separating burning from other types of forest damage in satellite data. We developed a new approach, the Burn Damage and Recovery (BDR) algorithm, to identify fire-related canopy damages using spatial and spectral information from multi-year time series of satellite data. The BDR approach identifies understory fires in intact and logged Amazon forests based on the reduction and recovery of live canopy cover in the years following fire damages and the size and shape of individual understory burn scars. The BDR algorithm was applied to time series of Landsat (1997-2004) and MODIS (2000-2005) data covering one Landsat scene (path/row 226/068) in southern Amazonia and the results were compared to field observations, image-derived burn scars, and independent data on selective logging and deforestation. Landsat resolution was essential for detection of burn scars less than 50 ha, yet these small burns contributed only 12% of all burned forest detected during 1997-2002. MODIS data were suitable for mapping medium (50-500 ha) and large (greater than 500 ha) burn scars that accounted for the majority of all fire-damaged forest in this study. Therefore, moderate resolution satellite data may be suitable to provide estimates of the extent of fire-damaged Amazon forest at a regional scale. In the study region, Landsat-based understory fire damages in 1999 (1508 square kilometers) were an order of magnitude higher than during the 1997-1998 El Nino event (124 square kilometers and 39 square kilometers, respectively), suggesting a different link between climate and understory fires than previously reported for other Amazon regions. The results in this study illustrate the potential to address critical questions concerning climate and fire risk in Amazon forests by

  5. Global Sea Surface Temperature: A Harmonized Multi-sensor Time-series from Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    This paper presents the methods used to obtain a new global sea surface temperature (SST) dataset spanning the early 1980s to the present, intended for use as a climate data record (CDR). The dataset provides skin SST (the fundamental measurement) and an estimate of the daily mean SST at depths compatible with drifting buoys (adjusting for skin and diurnal variability). The depth SST provided enables the CDR to be used with in situ records and centennial-scale SST reconstructions. The new SST timeseries is as independent as possible from in situ observations, and from 1995 onwards is harmonized to an independent satellite reference (namely, SSTs from the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (Advanced ATSR)). This maximizes the utility of our new estimates of variability and long-term trends in interrogating previous datasets tied to in situ observations. The new SSTs include full resolution (swath, level 2) data, single-sensor gridded data (level 3, 0.05 degree latitude-longitude grid) and a multi-sensor optimal analysis (level 4, same grid). All product levels are consistent. All SSTs have validated uncertainty estimates attached. The sensors used include all Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers from NOAA-6 onwards and the ATSR series. AVHRR brightness temperatures (BTs) are calculated from counts using a new in-flight re-calibration for each sensor, ultimately linked through to the AATSR BT calibration by a new harmonization technique. Artefacts in AVHRR BTs linked to varying instrument temperature, orbital regime and solar contamination are significantly reduced. These improvements in the AVHRR BTs (level 1) translate into improved cloud detection and SST (level 2). For cloud detection, we use a Bayesian approach for all sensors. For the ATSRs, SSTs are derived with sufficient accuracy and sensitivity using dual-view coefficients. This is not the case for single-view AVHRR observations, for which a physically based retrieval is employed, using a hybrid

  6. Wheat Yield Forecasting for Punjab Province from Vegetation Index Time Series and Historic Crop Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Dempewolf

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Policy makers, government planners and agricultural market participants in Pakistan require accurate and timely information about wheat yield and production. Punjab Province is by far the most important wheat producing region in the country. The manual collection of field data and data processing for crop forecasting by the provincial government requires significant amounts of time before official reports can be released. Several studies have shown that wheat yield can be effectively forecast using satellite remote sensing data. In this study, we developed a methodology for estimating wheat yield and area for Punjab Province from freely available Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery approximately six weeks before harvest. Wheat yield was derived by regressing reported yield values against time series of four different peak-season MODIS-derived vegetation indices. We also tested deriving wheat area from the same MODIS time series using a regression-tree approach. Among the four evaluated indices, WDRVI provided more consistent and accurate yield forecasts compared to NDVI, EVI2 and saturation-adjusted normalized difference vegetation index (SANDVI. The lowest RMSE values at the district level for forecast versus reported yield were found when using six or more years of training data. Forecast yield for the 2007/2008 to 2012/2013 growing seasons were within 0.2% and 11.5% of final reported values. Absolute deviations of wheat area and production forecasts from reported values were slightly greater compared to using the previous year's or the three- or six-year moving average values, implying that 250-m MODIS data does not provide sufficient spatial resolution for providing improved wheat area and production forecasts.

  7. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Precipitation-Modulated Landslide Deformation From Independent Component Analysis of InSAR Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen-Waeber, J.; Bürgmann, R.; Chaussard, E.; Giannico, C.; Ferretti, A.

    2018-02-01

    Long-term landslide deformation is disruptive and costly in urbanized environments. We rely on TerraSAR-X satellite images (2009-2014) and an improved data processing algorithm (SqueeSAR™) to produce an exceptionally dense Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar ground deformation time series for the San Francisco East Bay Hills. Independent and principal component analyses of the time series reveal four distinct spatial and temporal surface deformation patterns in the area around Blakemont landslide, which we relate to different geomechanical processes. Two components of time-dependent landslide deformation isolate continuous motion and motion driven by precipitation-modulated pore pressure changes controlled by annual seasonal cycles and multiyear drought conditions. Two components capturing more widespread seasonal deformation separate precipitation-modulated soil swelling from annual cycles that may be related to groundwater level changes and thermal expansion of buildings. High-resolution characterization of landslide response to precipitation is a first step toward improved hazard forecasting.

  8. TIME SERIES ANALYSIS USING A UNIQUE MODEL OF TRANSFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available REFII1 model is an authorial mathematical model for time series data mining. The main purpose of that model is to automate time series analysis, through a unique transformation model of time series. An advantage of this approach of time series analysis is the linkage of different methods for time series analysis, linking traditional data mining tools in time series, and constructing new algorithms for analyzing time series. It is worth mentioning that REFII model is not a closed system, which means that we have a finite set of methods. At first, this is a model for transformation of values of time series, which prepares data used by different sets of methods based on the same model of transformation in a domain of problem space. REFII model gives a new approach in time series analysis based on a unique model of transformation, which is a base for all kind of time series analysis. The advantage of REFII model is its possible application in many different areas such as finance, medicine, voice recognition, face recognition and text mining.

  9. Precise Time Synchronisation and Ranging in Nano-Satellite Swarms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laabs, Martin; Plettemeier, Dirk

    2015-04-01

    Precise time synchronization and ranging is very important for a variety of scientific experiments with more than two nano-satellites: For synthetic aperture radar (SAR) applications, for example, the radar signal phase (which corresponds to a synchronized time) as well as the location must be known on each satellite forming synthetic antenna. Also multi-static radar systems, MIMO radar systems or radio tomography applications will take advantage from highly accurate synchronization and position determination. We propose a method for synchronizing the time as well as measuring the distance between nano-satellites very precisely by utilizing mm-wave radio links. This approach can also be used for time synchronization of more than two satellites and accordingly determinating the precise relative location of nano-satellites in space. The time synchronization signal is modulated onto a mm-wave carrier. In the simplest form it is a harmonic sinusoidal signal with a frequency in the MHz range. The distance is measured with a frequency sweep or short pulse modulated onto a different carrier frequency. The sweep or pulse transmission start is synchronized to the received time synchronization. The time synchronization transmitter receives the pulse/sweep signal and can calculate the (double) time of flight for both signals. This measurement can be easily converted to the distance. The use of a mm-wave carrier leads to small antennas and the free space loss linked to the high frequency reduces non line of sight echoes. It also allows a high sweep/pulse bandwidth enabling superior ranging accuracy. Additionally, there is also less electromagnetic interference probability since telemetry and scientific applications typically do not use mm-wavefrequencies. Since the system is working full-duplex the time synchronization can be performed continuously and coherently. Up to now the required semiconductor processes did not achieve enough gain/bandwidth to realize this concept at

  10. Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics

    OpenAIRE

    Ling, S.; McAleer, M.J.; Tong, H.

    2015-01-01

    __Abstract__ Two of the fastest growing frontiers in econometrics and quantitative finance are time series and financial econometrics. Significant theoretical contributions to financial econometrics have been made by experts in statistics, econometrics, mathematics, and time series analysis. The purpose of this special issue of the journal on “Frontiers in Time Series and Financial Econometrics” is to highlight several areas of research by leading academics in which novel methods have contrib...

  11. Scale-dependent intrinsic entropies of complex time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Jia-Rong; Peng, Chung-Kang; Huang, Norden E

    2016-04-13

    Multi-scale entropy (MSE) was developed as a measure of complexity for complex time series, and it has been applied widely in recent years. The MSE algorithm is based on the assumption that biological systems possess the ability to adapt and function in an ever-changing environment, and these systems need to operate across multiple temporal and spatial scales, such that their complexity is also multi-scale and hierarchical. Here, we present a systematic approach to apply the empirical mode decomposition algorithm, which can detrend time series on various time scales, prior to analysing a signal's complexity by measuring the irregularity of its dynamics on multiple time scales. Simulated time series of fractal Gaussian noise and human heartbeat time series were used to study the performance of this new approach. We show that our method can successfully quantify the fractal properties of the simulated time series and can accurately distinguish modulations in human heartbeat time series in health and disease. © 2016 The Author(s).

  12. Elements of nonlinear time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    De Gooijer, Jan G

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art of nonlinear time series analysis, richly illustrated with examples, pseudocode algorithms and real-world applications. Avoiding a “theorem-proof” format, it shows concrete applications on a variety of empirical time series. The book can be used in graduate courses in nonlinear time series and at the same time also includes interesting material for more advanced readers. Though it is largely self-contained, readers require an understanding of basic linear time series concepts, Markov chains and Monte Carlo simulation methods. The book covers time-domain and frequency-domain methods for the analysis of both univariate and multivariate (vector) time series. It makes a clear distinction between parametric models on the one hand, and semi- and nonparametric models/methods on the other. This offers the reader the option of concentrating exclusively on one of these nonlinear time series analysis methods. To make the book as user friendly as possible...

  13. An Energy-Based Similarity Measure for Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Brunagel

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available A new similarity measure, called SimilB, for time series analysis, based on the cross-ΨB-energy operator (2004, is introduced. ΨB is a nonlinear measure which quantifies the interaction between two time series. Compared to Euclidean distance (ED or the Pearson correlation coefficient (CC, SimilB includes the temporal information and relative changes of the time series using the first and second derivatives of the time series. SimilB is well suited for both nonstationary and stationary time series and particularly those presenting discontinuities. Some new properties of ΨB are presented. Particularly, we show that ΨB as similarity measure is robust to both scale and time shift. SimilB is illustrated with synthetic time series and an artificial dataset and compared to the CC and the ED measures.

  14. Validation of the CHIRPS Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Eastern of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinku, T.; Funk, C. C.; Tadesse, T.; Ceccato, P.

    2017-12-01

    Long and temporally consistent rainfall time series are essential in climate analyses and applications. Rainfall data from station observations are inadequate over many parts of the world due to sparse or non-existent observation networks, or limited reporting of gauge observations. As a result, satellite rainfall estimates have been used as an alternative or as a supplement to station observations. However, many satellite-based rainfall products with long time series suffer from coarse spatial and temporal resolutions and inhomogeneities caused by variations in satellite inputs. There are some satellite rainfall products with reasonably consistent time series, but they are often limited to specific geographic areas. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation (CHIRP) and CHIRP combined with station observations (CHIRPS) are recently produced satellite-based rainfall products with relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions and quasi-global coverage. In this study, CHIRP and CHIRPS were evaluated over East Africa at daily, dekadal (10-day) and monthly time scales. The evaluation was done by comparing the satellite products with rain gauge data from about 1200 stations. The is unprecedented number of validation stations for this region covering. The results provide a unique region-wide understanding of how satellite products perform over different climatic/geographic (low lands, mountainous regions, and coastal) regions. The CHIRP and CHIRPS products were also compared with two similar satellite rainfall products: the African Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2) and the latest release of the Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data (TAMSAT). The results show that both CHIRP and CHIRPS products are significantly better than ARC2 with higher skill and low or no bias. These products were also found to be slightly better than the latest version of the TAMSAT product. A comparison was also done between the latest release of the TAMSAT product

  15. Detecting chaos in irregularly sampled time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulp, C W

    2013-09-01

    Recently, Wiebe and Virgin [Chaos 22, 013136 (2012)] developed an algorithm which detects chaos by analyzing a time series' power spectrum which is computed using the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT). Their algorithm, like other time series characterization algorithms, requires that the time series be regularly sampled. Real-world data, however, are often irregularly sampled, thus, making the detection of chaotic behavior difficult or impossible with those methods. In this paper, a characterization algorithm is presented, which effectively detects chaos in irregularly sampled time series. The work presented here is a modification of Wiebe and Virgin's algorithm and uses the Lomb-Scargle Periodogram (LSP) to compute a series' power spectrum instead of the DFT. The DFT is not appropriate for irregularly sampled time series. However, the LSP is capable of computing the frequency content of irregularly sampled data. Furthermore, a new method of analyzing the power spectrum is developed, which can be useful for differentiating between chaotic and non-chaotic behavior. The new characterization algorithm is successfully applied to irregularly sampled data generated by a model as well as data consisting of observations of variable stars.

  16. Building Chaotic Model From Incomplete Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siek, Michael; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    This paper presents a number of novel techniques for building a predictive chaotic model from incomplete time series. A predictive chaotic model is built by reconstructing the time-delayed phase space from observed time series and the prediction is made by a global model or adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space. In general, the building of any data-driven models depends on the completeness and quality of the data itself. However, the completeness of the data availability can not always be guaranteed since the measurement or data transmission is intermittently not working properly due to some reasons. We propose two main solutions dealing with incomplete time series: using imputing and non-imputing methods. For imputing methods, we utilized the interpolation methods (weighted sum of linear interpolations, Bayesian principle component analysis and cubic spline interpolation) and predictive models (neural network, kernel machine, chaotic model) for estimating the missing values. After imputing the missing values, the phase space reconstruction and chaotic model prediction are executed as a standard procedure. For non-imputing methods, we reconstructed the time-delayed phase space from observed time series with missing values. This reconstruction results in non-continuous trajectories. However, the local model prediction can still be made from the other dynamical neighbors reconstructed from non-missing values. We implemented and tested these methods to construct a chaotic model for predicting storm surges at Hoek van Holland as the entrance of Rotterdam Port. The hourly surge time series is available for duration of 1990-1996. For measuring the performance of the proposed methods, a synthetic time series with missing values generated by a particular random variable to the original (complete) time series is utilized. There exist two main performance measures used in this work: (1) error measures between the actual

  17. DEVELOPMENT OF TIME-SERIES HUMAN SETTLEMENT MAPPING SYSTEM USING HISTORICAL LANDSAT ARCHIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Miyazaki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Methodology of automated human settlement mapping is highly needed for utilization of historical satellite data archives for urgent issues of urban growth in global scale, such as disaster risk management, public health, food security, and urban management. As development of global data with spatial resolution of 10-100 m was achieved by some initiatives using ASTER, Landsat, and TerraSAR-X, next goal has targeted to development of time-series data which can contribute to studies urban development with background context of socioeconomy, disaster risk management, public health, transport and other development issues. We developed an automated algorithm to detect human settlement by classification of built-up and non-built-up in time-series Landsat images. A machine learning algorithm, Local and Global Consistency (LLGC, was applied with improvements for remote sensing data. The algorithm enables to use MCD12Q1, a MODIS-based global land cover map with 500-m resolution, as training data so that any manual process is not required for preparation of training data. In addition, we designed the method to composite multiple results of LLGC into a single output to reduce uncertainty. The LLGC results has a confidence value ranging 0.0 to 1.0 representing probability of built-up and non-built-up. The median value of the confidence for a certain period around a target time was expected to be a robust output of confidence to identify built-up or non-built-up areas against uncertainties in satellite data quality, such as cloud and haze contamination. Four scenes of Landsat data for each target years, 1990, 2000, 2005, and 2010, were chosen among the Landsat archive data with cloud contamination less than 20%.We developed a system with the algorithms on the Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS in the University of Tokyo and processed 5200 scenes of Landsat data for cities with more than one million people worldwide.

  18. Multivariate Time Series Search

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Multivariate Time-Series (MTS) are ubiquitous, and are generated in areas as disparate as sensor recordings in aerospace systems, music and video streams, medical...

  19. Analysing Stable Time Series

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Adler, Robert

    1997-01-01

    We describe how to take a stable, ARMA, time series through the various stages of model identification, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking, and accompany the discussion with a goodly number...

  20. Quantification of live aboveground forest biomass dynamics with Landsat time-series and field inventory data: A comparison of empirical modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott L. Powell; Warren B. Cohen; Sean P. Healey; Robert E. Kennedy; Gretchen G. Moisen; Kenneth B. Pierce; Janet L. Ohmann

    2010-01-01

    Spatially and temporally explicit knowledge of biomass dynamics at broad scales is critical to understanding how forest disturbance and regrowth processes influence carbon dynamics. We modeled live, aboveground tree biomass using Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) field data and applied the models to 20+ year time-series of Landsat satellite imagery to...

  1. A Non-Stationary 1981–2012 AVHRR NDVI3g Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge E. Pinzon

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The NDVI3g time series is an improved 8-km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI data set produced from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR instruments that extends from 1981 to the present. The AVHRR instruments have flown or are flying on fourteen polar-orbiting meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA and are currently flying on two European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT polar-orbiting meteorological satellites, MetOp-A and MetOp-B. This long AVHRR record is comprised of data from two different sensors: the AVHRR/2 instrument that spans July 1981 to November 2000 and the AVHRR/3 instrument that continues these measurements from November 2000 to the present. The main difficulty in processing AVHRR NDVI data is to properly deal with limitations of the AVHRR instruments. Complicating among-instrument AVHRR inter-calibration of channels one and two is the dual gain introduced in late 2000 on the AVHRR/3 instruments for both these channels. We have processed NDVI data derived from the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS from 1997 to 2010 to overcome among-instrument AVHRR calibration difficulties. We use Bayesian methods with high quality well-calibrated SeaWiFS NDVI data for deriving AVHRR NDVI calibration parameters. Evaluation of the uncertainties of our resulting NDVI values gives an error of ± 0.005 NDVI units for our 1981 to present data set that is independent of time within our AVHRR NDVI continuum and has resulted in a non-stationary climate data set.

  2. A Non-Stationary 1981-2012 AVHRR NDVI(sub 3g) Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinzon, Jorge E.; Tucker, Compton J.

    2014-01-01

    The NDVI(sub 3g) time series is an improved 8-km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data set produced from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments that extends from 1981 to the present. The AVHRR instruments have flown or are flying on fourteen polar-orbiting meteorological satellites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and are currently flying on two European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites, MetOp-A and MetOp-B. This long AVHRR record is comprised of data from two different sensors: the AVHRR/2 instrument that spans July 1981 to November 2000 and the AVHRR/3 instrument that continues these measurements from November 2000 to the present. The main difficulty in processing AVHRR NDVI data is to properly deal with limitations of the AVHRR instruments. Complicating among-instrument AVHRR inter-calibration of channels one and two is the dual gain introduced in late 2000 on the AVHRR/3 instruments for both these channels. We have processed NDVI data derived from the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) from 1997 to 2010 to overcome among-instrument AVHRR calibration difficulties. We use Bayesian methods with high quality well-calibrated SeaWiFS NDVI data for deriving AVHRR NDVI calibration parameters. Evaluation of the uncertainties of our resulting NDVI values gives an error of plus or minus 0.005 NDVI units for our 1981 to present data set that is independent of time within our AVHRR NDVI continuum and has resulted in a non-stationary climate data set.

  3. Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Tim Hill; Marcus O'Connor; William Remus

    1996-01-01

    Neural networks have been advocated as an alternative to traditional statistical forecasting methods. In the present experiment, time series forecasts produced by neural networks are compared with forecasts from six statistical time series methods generated in a major forecasting competition (Makridakis et al. [Makridakis, S., A. Anderson, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, R. Winkler. 1982. The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a ...

  4. Determining the best phenological state for accurate mapping of Phragmites australis in wetlands using time series multispectral satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupasinghe, P. A.; Markle, C. E.; Marcaccio, J. V.; Chow-Fraser, P.

    2017-12-01

    Phragmites australis (European common reed), is a relatively recent invader of wetlands and beaches in Ontario. It can establish large homogenous stands within wetlands and disperse widely throughout the landscape by wind and vehicular traffic. A first step in managing this invasive species includes accurate mapping and quantification of its distribution. This is challenging because Phragimtes is distributed in a large spatial extent, which makes the mapping more costly and time consuming. Here, we used freely available multispectral satellite images taken monthly (cloud free images as available) for the calendar year to determine the optimum phenological state of Phragmites that would allow it to be accurately identified using remote sensing data. We analyzed time series, Landsat-8 OLI and Sentinel-2 images for Big Creek Wildlife Area, ON using image classification (Support Vector Machines), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). We used field sampling data and high resolution image collected using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV; 8 cm spatial resolution) as training data and for the validation of the classified images. The accuracy for all land cover classes and for Phragmites alone were low at both the start and end of the calendar year, but reached overall accuracy >85% by mid to late summer. The highest classification accuracies for Landsat-8 OLI were associated with late July and early August imagery. We observed similar trends using the Sentinel-2 images, with higher overall accuracy for all land cover classes and for Phragmites alone from late July to late September. During this period, we found the greatest difference between Phragmites and Typha, commonly confused classes, with respect to near-infrared and shortwave infrared reflectance. Therefore, the unique spectral signature of Phragmites can be attributed to both the level of greenness and factors related to water content in the leaves during late

  5. Time Series Observations in the North Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shenoy, D.M.; Naik, H.; Kurian, S.; Naqvi, S.W.A.; Khare, N.

    Ocean and the ongoing time series study (Candolim Time Series; CaTS) off Goa. In addition, this article also focuses on the new time series initiative in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal under Sustained Indian Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem...

  6. Detecting inter-annual variations in the phenology of evergreen conifers using long-term MODIS vegetation index time series.

    OpenAIRE

    Ulsig, Laura

    2016-01-01

    Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This study investigates the potential of the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of ...

  7. Automated land cover change detection: the quest for meaningful high temporal time series extraction

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Salmon, BP

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available and methodologies on sequential time series extracted from satellite data. 5. REFERENCES [1] R. S. DeFries, L. Bounoua, and G. J. Collatz, “Human modification of the landscape and surface climate in the next fifty years,” Global Change Biology, vol. 8, no. 5... was extracted for only the first two spectral bands from the 8-day composite MODIS MCD43A4 data set (tile H20V11) (year 2000–2008) as it was shown to have considerable class separation when the features are analyzed [6]. 2.3. Data sets: Validation...

  8. Geometric noise reduction for multivariate time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mera, M Eugenia; Morán, Manuel

    2006-03-01

    We propose an algorithm for the reduction of observational noise in chaotic multivariate time series. The algorithm is based on a maximum likelihood criterion, and its goal is to reduce the mean distance of the points of the cleaned time series to the attractor. We give evidence of the convergence of the empirical measure associated with the cleaned time series to the underlying invariant measure, implying the possibility to predict the long run behavior of the true dynamics.

  9. BRITS: Bidirectional Recurrent Imputation for Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Wei; Wang, Dong; Li, Jian; Zhou, Hao; Li, Lei; Li, Yitan

    2018-01-01

    Time series are widely used as signals in many classification/regression tasks. It is ubiquitous that time series contains many missing values. Given multiple correlated time series data, how to fill in missing values and to predict their class labels? Existing imputation methods often impose strong assumptions of the underlying data generating process, such as linear dynamics in the state space. In this paper, we propose BRITS, a novel method based on recurrent neural networks for missing va...

  10. Efficient Algorithms for Segmentation of Item-Set Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chundi, Parvathi; Rosenkrantz, Daniel J.

    We propose a special type of time series, which we call an item-set time series, to facilitate the temporal analysis of software version histories, email logs, stock market data, etc. In an item-set time series, each observed data value is a set of discrete items. We formalize the concept of an item-set time series and present efficient algorithms for segmenting a given item-set time series. Segmentation of a time series partitions the time series into a sequence of segments where each segment is constructed by combining consecutive time points of the time series. Each segment is associated with an item set that is computed from the item sets of the time points in that segment, using a function which we call a measure function. We then define a concept called the segment difference, which measures the difference between the item set of a segment and the item sets of the time points in that segment. The segment difference values are required to construct an optimal segmentation of the time series. We describe novel and efficient algorithms to compute segment difference values for each of the measure functions described in the paper. We outline a dynamic programming based scheme to construct an optimal segmentation of the given item-set time series. We use the item-set time series segmentation techniques to analyze the temporal content of three different data sets—Enron email, stock market data, and a synthetic data set. The experimental results show that an optimal segmentation of item-set time series data captures much more temporal content than a segmentation constructed based on the number of time points in each segment, without examining the item set data at the time points, and can be used to analyze different types of temporal data.

  11. Studies on time series applications in environmental sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Bărbulescu, Alina

    2016-01-01

    Time series analysis and modelling represent a large study field, implying the approach from the perspective of the time and frequency, with applications in different domains. Modelling hydro-meteorological time series is difficult due to the characteristics of these series, as long range dependence, spatial dependence, the correlation with other series. Continuous spatial data plays an important role in planning, risk assessment and decision making in environmental management. In this context, in this book we present various statistical tests and modelling techniques used for time series analysis, as well as applications to hydro-meteorological series from Dobrogea, a region situated in the south-eastern part of Romania, less studied till now. Part of the results are accompanied by their R code. .

  12. Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Population Density Grid Time Series Estimates provide a back-cast time series of population density grids based on the year 2000 population grid from SEDAC's...

  13. Prediction and Geometry of Chaotic Time Series

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Leonardi, Mary

    1997-01-01

    This thesis examines the topic of chaotic time series. An overview of chaos, dynamical systems, and traditional approaches to time series analysis is provided, followed by an examination of state space reconstruction...

  14. 20 Years of Total and Tropical Ozone Time Series Based on European Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loyola, D. G.; Heue, K. P.; Coldewey-Egbers, M.

    2016-12-01

    Ozone is an important trace gas in the atmosphere, while the stratospheric ozone layer protects the earth surface from the incident UV radiation, the tropospheric ozone acts as green house gas and causes health damages as well as crop loss. The total ozone column is dominated by the stratospheric column, the tropospheric columns only contributes about 10% to the total column.The ozone column data from the European satellite instruments GOME, SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2A and GOME-2B are available within the ESA Climate Change Initiative project with a high degree of inter-sensor consistency. The tropospheric ozone columns are based on the convective cloud differential algorithm. The datasets encompass a period of more than 20 years between 1995 and 2015, for the trend analysis the data sets were harmonized relative to one of the instruments. For the tropics we found an increase in the tropospheric ozone column of 0.75 ± 0.12 DU decade^{-1} with local variations between 1.8 and -0.8. The largest trends were observed over southern Africa and the Atlantic Ocean. A seasonal trend analysis led to the assumption that the increase is caused by additional forest fires.The trend for the total column was not that certain, based on model predicted trend data and the measurement uncertainty we estimated that another 10 to 15 years of observations will be required to observe a statistical significant trend. In the mid latitudes the trends are currently hidden in the large variability and for the tropics the modelled trends are low. Also the possibility of diverging trends at different altitudes must be considered; an increase in the tropospheric ozone might be accompanied by decreasing stratospheric ozone.The European satellite data record will be extended over the next two decades with the atmospheric satellite missions Sentinel 5 Precursor (launch end of 2016), Sentinel 4 and Sentinel 5.

  15. Sensor-Generated Time Series Events: A Definition Language

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anguera, Aurea; Lara, Juan A.; Lizcano, David; Martínez, Maria Aurora; Pazos, Juan

    2012-01-01

    There are now a great many domains where information is recorded by sensors over a limited time period or on a permanent basis. This data flow leads to sequences of data known as time series. In many domains, like seismography or medicine, time series analysis focuses on particular regions of interest, known as events, whereas the remainder of the time series contains hardly any useful information. In these domains, there is a need for mechanisms to identify and locate such events. In this paper, we propose an events definition language that is general enough to be used to easily and naturally define events in time series recorded by sensors in any domain. The proposed language has been applied to the definition of time series events generated within the branch of medicine dealing with balance-related functions in human beings. A device, called posturograph, is used to study balance-related functions. The platform has four sensors that record the pressure intensity being exerted on the platform, generating four interrelated time series. As opposed to the existing ad hoc proposals, the results confirm that the proposed language is valid, that is generally applicable and accurate, for identifying the events contained in the time series.

  16. Correlation and multifractality in climatological time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedron, I T

    2010-01-01

    Climate can be described by statistical analysis of mean values of atmospheric variables over a period. It is possible to detect correlations in climatological time series and to classify its behavior. In this work the Hurst exponent, which can characterize correlation and persistence in time series, is obtained by using the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method. Data series of temperature, precipitation, humidity, solar radiation, wind speed, maximum squall, atmospheric pressure and randomic series are studied. Furthermore, the multifractality of such series is analyzed applying the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) method. The results indicate presence of correlation (persistent character) in all climatological series and multifractality as well. A larger set of data, and longer, could provide better results indicating the universality of the exponents.

  17. Near Real Time Change-Point detection in Optical and Thermal Infrared Time Series Using Bayesian Inference over the Dry Chaco Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barraza Bernadas, V.; Grings, F.; Roitberg, E.; Perna, P.; Karszenbaum, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Dry Chaco region (DCF) has the highest absolute deforestation rates of all Argentinian forests. The most recent report indicates a current deforestation rate of 200,000 Ha year-1. In order to better monitor this process, DCF was chosen to implement an early warning program for illegal deforestation. Although the area is intensively studied using medium resolution imagery (Landsat), the products obtained have a yearly pace and therefore unsuited for an early warning program. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of an online Bayesian change-point detection algorithm for MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets. The goal was to to monitor the abrupt changes in vegetation dynamics associated with deforestation events. We tested this model by simulating 16-day EVI and 8-day LST time series with varying amounts of seasonality, noise, length of the time series and by adding abrupt changes with different magnitudes. This model was then tested on real satellite time series available through the Google Earth Engine, over a pilot area in DCF, where deforestation was common in the 2004-2016 period. A comparison with yearly benchmark products based on Landsat images is also presented (REDAF dataset). The results shows the advantages of using an automatic model to detect a changepoint in the time series than using only visual inspection techniques. Simulating time series with varying amounts of seasonality and noise, and by adding abrupt changes at different times and magnitudes, revealed that this model is robust against noise, and is not influenced by changes in amplitude of the seasonal component. Furthermore, the results compared favorably with REDAF dataset (near 65% of agreement). These results show the potential to combine LST and EVI to identify deforestation events. This work is being developed within the frame of the national Forest Law for the protection and sustainable development of Native Forest in Argentina in

  18. Time Series Forecasting with Missing Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Fu Wu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Time series prediction has become more popular in various kinds of applications such as weather prediction, control engineering, financial analysis, industrial monitoring, etc. To deal with real-world problems, we are often faced with missing values in the data due to sensor malfunctions or human errors. Traditionally, the missing values are simply omitted or replaced by means of imputation methods. However, omitting those missing values may cause temporal discontinuity. Imputation methods, on the other hand, may alter the original time series. In this study, we propose a novel forecasting method based on least squares support vector machine (LSSVM. We employ the input patterns with the temporal information which is defined as local time index (LTI. Time series data as well as local time indexes are fed to LSSVM for doing forecasting without imputation. We compare the forecasting performance of our method with other imputation methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method is promising and is worth further investigations.

  19. Normalization and calibration of geostationary satellite radiances for the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desormeaux, Yves; Rossow, William B.; Brest, Christopher L.; Campbell, G. G.

    1993-01-01

    Procedures are described for normalizing the radiometric calibration of image radiances obtained from geostationary weather satellites that contributed data to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. The key step is comparison of coincident and collocated measurements made by each satellite and the concurrent AVHRR on the 'afternoon' NOAA polar-orbiting weather satellite at the same viewing geometry. The results of this comparison allow transfer of the AVHRR absolute calibration, which has been established over the whole series, to the radiometers on the geostationary satellites. Results are given for Meteosat-2, 3, and 4, for GOES-5, 6, and 7, for GMS-2, 3, and 4 and for Insat-1B. The relative stability of the calibrations of these radiance data is estimated to be within +/- 3 percent; the uncertainty of the absolute calibrations is estimated to be less than 10 percent. The remaining uncertainties are at least two times smaller than for the original radiance data.

  20. Reconstruction of ensembles of coupled time-delay systems from time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sysoev, I V; Prokhorov, M D; Ponomarenko, V I; Bezruchko, B P

    2014-06-01

    We propose a method to recover from time series the parameters of coupled time-delay systems and the architecture of couplings between them. The method is based on a reconstruction of model delay-differential equations and estimation of statistical significance of couplings. It can be applied to networks composed of nonidentical nodes with an arbitrary number of unidirectional and bidirectional couplings. We test our method on chaotic and periodic time series produced by model equations of ensembles of diffusively coupled time-delay systems in the presence of noise, and apply it to experimental time series obtained from electronic oscillators with delayed feedback coupled by resistors.

  1. Demonstrating the Value of Near Real-time Satellite-based Earth Observations in a Research and Education Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, L.; Hao, X.; Kinter, J. L.; Stearn, G.; Aliani, M.

    2017-12-01

    The launch of GOES-16 series provides an opportunity to advance near real-time applications in natural hazard detection, monitoring and warning. This study demonstrates the capability and values of receiving real-time satellite-based Earth observations over a fast terrestrial networks and processing high-resolution remote sensing data in a university environment. The demonstration system includes 4 components: 1) Near real-time data receiving and processing; 2) data analysis and visualization; 3) event detection and monitoring; and 4) information dissemination. Various tools are developed and integrated to receive and process GRB data in near real-time, produce images and value-added data products, and detect and monitor extreme weather events such as hurricane, fire, flooding, fog, lightning, etc. A web-based application system is developed to disseminate near-real satellite images and data products. The images are generated with GIS-compatible format (GeoTIFF) to enable convenient use and integration in various GIS platforms. This study enhances the capacities for undergraduate and graduate education in Earth system and climate sciences, and related applications to understand the basic principles and technology in real-time applications with remote sensing measurements. It also provides an integrated platform for near real-time monitoring of extreme weather events, which are helpful for various user communities.

  2. High accuracy satellite drag model (HASDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storz, Mark F.; Bowman, Bruce R.; Branson, Major James I.; Casali, Stephen J.; Tobiska, W. Kent

    The dominant error source in force models used to predict low-perigee satellite trajectories is atmospheric drag. Errors in operational thermospheric density models cause significant errors in predicted satellite positions, since these models do not account for dynamic changes in atmospheric drag for orbit predictions. The Air Force Space Battlelab's High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) estimates and predicts (out three days) a dynamically varying global density field. HASDM includes the Dynamic Calibration Atmosphere (DCA) algorithm that solves for the phases and amplitudes of the diurnal and semidiurnal variations of thermospheric density near real-time from the observed drag effects on a set of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) calibration satellites. The density correction is expressed as a function of latitude, local solar time and altitude. In HASDM, a time series prediction filter relates the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) energy index E10.7 and the geomagnetic storm index ap, to the DCA density correction parameters. The E10.7 index is generated by the SOLAR2000 model, the first full spectrum model of solar irradiance. The estimated and predicted density fields will be used operationally to significantly improve the accuracy of predicted trajectories for all low-perigee satellites.

  3. The analysis of time series: an introduction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chatfield, Christopher

    1989-01-01

    .... A variety of practical examples are given to support the theory. The book covers a wide range of time-series topics, including probability models for time series, Box-Jenkins forecasting, spectral analysis, linear systems and system identification...

  4. GLACIER VOLUME CHANGE ESTIMATION USING TIME SERIES OF IMPROVED ASTER DEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Girod

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Volume change data is critical to the understanding of glacier response to climate change. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER system embarked on the Terra (EOS AM-1 satellite has been a unique source of systematic stereoscopic images covering the whole globe at 15m resolution and at a consistent quality for over 15 years. While satellite stereo sensors with significantly improved radiometric and spatial resolution are available to date, the potential of ASTER data lies in its long consistent time series that is unrivaled, though not fully exploited for change analysis due to lack of data accuracy and precision. Here, we developed an improved method for ASTER DEM generation and implemented it in the open source photogrammetric library and software suite MicMac. The method relies on the computation of a rational polynomial coefficients (RPC model and the detection and correction of cross-track sensor jitter in order to compute DEMs. ASTER data are strongly affected by attitude jitter, mainly of approximately 4 km and 30 km wavelength, and improving the generation of ASTER DEMs requires removal of this effect. Our sensor modeling does not require ground control points and allows thus potentially for the automatic processing of large data volumes. As a proof of concept, we chose a set of glaciers with reference DEMs available to assess the quality of our measurements. We use time series of ASTER scenes from which we extracted DEMs with a ground sampling distance of 15m. Our method directly measures and accounts for the cross-track component of jitter so that the resulting DEMs are not contaminated by this process. Since the along-track component of jitter has the same direction as the stereo parallaxes, the two cannot be separated and the elevations extracted are thus contaminated by along-track jitter. Initial tests reveal no clear relation between the cross-track and along-track components so that the latter

  5. Information extraction from dynamic PS-InSAR time series using machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Kerkhof, B.; Pankratius, V.; Chang, L.; van Swol, R.; Hanssen, R. F.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the increasing number of SAR satellites, with shorter repeat intervals and higher resolutions, SAR data volumes are exploding. Time series analyses of SAR data, i.e. Persistent Scatterer (PS) InSAR, enable the deformation monitoring of the built environment at an unprecedented scale, with hundreds of scatterers per km2, updated weekly. Potential hazards, e.g. due to failure of aging infrastructure, can be detected at an early stage. Yet, this requires the operational data processing of billions of measurement points, over hundreds of epochs, updating this data set dynamically as new data come in, and testing whether points (start to) behave in an anomalous way. Moreover, the quality of PS-InSAR measurements is ambiguous and heterogeneous, which will yield false positives and false negatives. Such analyses are numerically challenging. Here we extract relevant information from PS-InSAR time series using machine learning algorithms. We cluster (group together) time series with similar behaviour, even though they may not be spatially close, such that the results can be used for further analysis. First we reduce the dimensionality of the dataset in order to be able to cluster the data, since applying clustering techniques on high dimensional datasets often result in unsatisfying results. Our approach is to apply t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE), a machine learning algorithm for dimensionality reduction of high-dimensional data to a 2D or 3D map, and cluster this result using Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN). The results show that we are able to detect and cluster time series with similar behaviour, which is the starting point for more extensive analysis into the underlying driving mechanisms. The results of the methods are compared to conventional hypothesis testing as well as a Self-Organising Map (SOM) approach. Hypothesis testing is robust and takes the stochastic nature of the observations into account

  6. Review of current GPS methodologies for producing accurate time series and their error sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xiaoxing; Montillet, Jean-Philippe; Fernandes, Rui; Bos, Machiel; Yu, Kegen; Hua, Xianghong; Jiang, Weiping

    2017-05-01

    The Global Positioning System (GPS) is an important tool to observe and model geodynamic processes such as plate tectonics and post-glacial rebound. In the last three decades, GPS has seen tremendous advances in the precision of the measurements, which allow researchers to study geophysical signals through a careful analysis of daily time series of GPS receiver coordinates. However, the GPS observations contain errors and the time series can be described as the sum of a real signal and noise. The signal itself can again be divided into station displacements due to geophysical causes and to disturbing factors. Examples of the latter are errors in the realization and stability of the reference frame and corrections due to ionospheric and tropospheric delays and GPS satellite orbit errors. There is an increasing demand on detecting millimeter to sub-millimeter level ground displacement signals in order to further understand regional scale geodetic phenomena hence requiring further improvements in the sensitivity of the GPS solutions. This paper provides a review spanning over 25 years of advances in processing strategies, error mitigation methods and noise modeling for the processing and analysis of GPS daily position time series. The processing of the observations is described step-by-step and mainly with three different strategies in order to explain the weaknesses and strengths of the existing methodologies. In particular, we focus on the choice of the stochastic model in the GPS time series, which directly affects the estimation of the functional model including, for example, tectonic rates, seasonal signals and co-seismic offsets. Moreover, the geodetic community continues to develop computational methods to fully automatize all phases from analysis of GPS time series. This idea is greatly motivated by the large number of GPS receivers installed around the world for diverse applications ranging from surveying small deformations of civil engineering structures (e

  7. Detecting Inter-Annual Variations in the Phenology of Evergreen Conifers Using Long-Term MODIS Vegetation Index Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Ulsig, Laura; Nichol, Caroline J.; Huemmrich, Karl F.; Landis, David R.; Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Lyapustin, Alexei I.; Mammarella, Ivan; Levula, Janne; Porcar-Castell, Albert

    2017-01-01

    Long-term observations of vegetation phenology can be used to monitor the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. Satellite remote sensing provides the most efficient means to observe phenological events through time series analysis of vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). This study investigates the potential of a Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been linked to vegetation light use efficiency, to improve the accuracy of MO...

  8. Fodder Biomass Monitoring in Sahelian Rangelands Using Phenological Metrics from FAPAR Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diouf, Abdoul Aziz; Brandt, Martin Stefan; Verger, Aleixandre

    2015-01-01

    Timely monitoring of plant biomass is critical for the management of forage resources in Sahelian rangelands. The estimation of annual biomass production in the Sahel is based on a simple relationship between satellite annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and in situ biomass data....... This study proposes a new methodology using multi-linear models between phenological metrics from the SPOT-VEGETATION time series of Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) and in situ biomass. A model with three variables—large seasonal integral (LINTG), length of growing season......, and end of season decreasing rate—performed best (MAE = 605 kg·DM/ha; R2 = 0.68) across Sahelian ecosystems in Senegal (data for the period 1999–2013). A model with annual maximum (PEAK) and start date of season showed similar performances (MAE = 625 kg·DM/ha; R2 = 0.64), allowing a timely estimation...

  9. Time series modeling in traffic safety research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavrenz, Steven M; Vlahogianni, Eleni I; Gkritza, Konstantina; Ke, Yue

    2018-08-01

    The use of statistical models for analyzing traffic safety (crash) data has been well-established. However, time series techniques have traditionally been underrepresented in the corresponding literature, due to challenges in data collection, along with a limited knowledge of proper methodology. In recent years, new types of high-resolution traffic safety data, especially in measuring driver behavior, have made time series modeling techniques an increasingly salient topic of study. Yet there remains a dearth of information to guide analysts in their use. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in using time series models in traffic safety research, and discusses some of the fundamental techniques and considerations in classic time series modeling. It also presents ongoing and future opportunities for expanding the use of time series models, and explores newer modeling techniques, including computational intelligence models, which hold promise in effectively handling ever-larger data sets. The information contained herein is meant to guide safety researchers in understanding this broad area of transportation data analysis, and provide a framework for understanding safety trends that can influence policy-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Measurement of spectra and neutron fluxes on artificial earth satellites from the Cosmos series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudkin, V. Y.; Kovalev, Y. Y.; Novikova, M. R.; Potapov, Y. V.; Skvortsov, S. S.; Smirennyy, L. N.

    1975-01-01

    In 1966-1967 measurements were carried out at the altitudes of 200 to 400 km to determine the spectra and fluxes of fast neutrons inside the hermetically sealed artificial earth satellites of the Cosmos series. The detectors used were nuclear emulsions of the B9 and BR types and an emulsion of the P9 type, filled with Li and P. Spectra and fluxes of neutrons in the range of energies from thermal energies to 10 MeV are presented. Neutron doses are also estimated.

  11. Time series prediction: statistical and neural techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahirniak, Daniel R.; DeSimio, Martin P.

    1996-03-01

    In this paper we compare the performance of nonlinear neural network techniques to those of linear filtering techniques in the prediction of time series. Specifically, we compare the results of using the nonlinear systems, known as multilayer perceptron and radial basis function neural networks, with the results obtained using the conventional linear Wiener filter, Kalman filter and Widrow-Hoff adaptive filter in predicting future values of stationary and non- stationary time series. Our results indicate the performance of each type of system is heavily dependent upon the form of the time series being predicted and the size of the system used. In particular, the linear filters perform adequately for linear or near linear processes while the nonlinear systems perform better for nonlinear processes. Since the linear systems take much less time to be developed, they should be tried prior to using the nonlinear systems when the linearity properties of the time series process are unknown.

  12. Effectiveness of Multivariate Time Series Classification Using Shapelets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Karpenko

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Typically, time series classifiers require signal pre-processing (filtering signals from noise and artifact removal, etc., enhancement of signal features (amplitude, frequency, spectrum, etc., classification of signal features in space using the classical techniques and classification algorithms of multivariate data. We consider a method of classifying time series, which does not require enhancement of the signal features. The method uses the shapelets of time series (time series shapelets i.e. small fragments of this series, which reflect properties of one of its classes most of all.Despite the significant number of publications on the theory and shapelet applications for classification of time series, the task to evaluate the effectiveness of this technique remains relevant. An objective of this publication is to study the effectiveness of a number of modifications of the original shapelet method as applied to the multivariate series classification that is a littlestudied problem. The paper presents the problem statement of multivariate time series classification using the shapelets and describes the shapelet–based basic method of binary classification, as well as various generalizations and proposed modification of the method. It also offers the software that implements a modified method and results of computational experiments confirming the effectiveness of the algorithmic and software solutions.The paper shows that the modified method and the software to use it allow us to reach the classification accuracy of about 85%, at best. The shapelet search time increases in proportion to input data dimension.

  13. Time-series-analysis techniques applied to nuclear-material accounting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.; Downing, D.J.

    1982-05-01

    This document is designed to introduce the reader to the applications of Time Series Analysis techniques to Nuclear Material Accountability data. Time series analysis techniques are designed to extract information from a collection of random variables ordered by time by seeking to identify any trends, patterns, or other structure in the series. Since nuclear material accountability data is a time series, one can extract more information using time series analysis techniques than by using other statistical techniques. Specifically, the objective of this document is to examine the applicability of time series analysis techniques to enhance loss detection of special nuclear materials. An introductory section examines the current industry approach which utilizes inventory differences. The error structure of inventory differences is presented. Time series analysis techniques discussed include the Shewhart Control Chart, the Cumulative Summation of Inventory Differences Statistics (CUSUM) and the Kalman Filter and Linear Smoother

  14. Simulation and Analysis of Autonomous Time Synchronization Based on Asynchronism Two-way Inter-satellite Link

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, L.; Yang, X. H.; Sun, B. Q.; Qin, W. J.; Kong, Y.

    2013-09-01

    The measurement of the inter-satellite link is one of the key techniques in the autonomous operation of satellite navigation system. Based on the asynchronism inter-satellite two-way measurement mode in GPS constellation, the reduction formula of the inter-satellite time synchronization is built in this paper. Moreover, the corrective method of main systematic errors is proposed. Inter-satellite two-way time synchronization is simulated on the basis of IGS (International GNSS Service) precise ephemeris. The impacts of the epoch domestication of asynchronism inter-satellite link pseudo-range, the initial orbit, and the main systematic errors on satellite time synchronization are analyzed. Furthermore, the broadcast clock error of each satellite is calculated by the ``centralized'' inter-satellite autonomous time synchronization. Simulation results show that the epoch domestication of asynchronism inter-satellite link pseudo-range and the initial orbit have little impact on the satellite clock errors, and thus they needn't be taken into account. The errors caused by the relativistic effect and the asymmetry of path travel have large impact on the satellite clock errors. These should be corrected with theoretical formula. Compared with the IGS precise clock error, the root mean square of the broadcast clock error of each satellite is about 0.4 ns.

  15. Clinical and epidemiological rounds. Time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    León-Álvarez, Alba Luz

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of time series is a technique that implicates the study of individuals or groups observed in successive moments in time. This type of analysis allows the study of potential causal relationships between different variables that change over time and relate to each other. It is the most important technique to make inferences about the future, predicting, on the basis or what has happened in the past and it is applied in different disciplines of knowledge. Here we discuss different components of time series, the analysis technique and specific examples in health research.

  16. Phenomapping of rangelands in South Africa using time series of RapidEye data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parplies, André; Dubovyk, Olena; Tewes, Andreas; Mund, Jan-Peter; Schellberg, Jürgen

    2016-12-01

    Phenomapping is an approach which allows the derivation of spatial patterns of vegetation phenology and rangeland productivity based on time series of vegetation indices. In our study, we propose a new spatial mapping approach which combines phenometrics derived from high resolution (HR) satellite time series with spatial logistic regression modeling to discriminate land management systems in rangelands. From the RapidEye time series for selected rangelands in South Africa, we calculated bi-weekly noise reduced Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images. For the growing season of 2011⿿2012, we further derived principal phenology metrics such as start, end and length of growing season and related phenological variables such as amplitude, left derivative and small integral of the NDVI curve. We then mapped these phenometrics across two different tenure systems, communal and commercial, at the very detailed spatial resolution of 5 m. The result of a binary logistic regression (BLR) has shown that the amplitude and the left derivative of the NDVI curve were statistically significant. These indicators are useful to discriminate commercial from communal rangeland systems. We conclude that phenomapping combined with spatial modeling is a powerful tool that allows efficient aggregation of phenology and productivity metrics for spatially explicit analysis of the relationships of crop phenology with site conditions and management. This approach has particular potential for disaggregated and patchy environments such as in farming systems in semi-arid South Africa, where phenology varies considerably among and within years. Further, we see a strong perspective for phenomapping to support spatially explicit modelling of vegetation.

  17. Integer-valued time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Akker, R.

    2007-01-01

    This thesis adresses statistical problems in econometrics. The first part contributes statistical methodology for nonnegative integer-valued time series. The second part of this thesis discusses semiparametric estimation in copula models and develops semiparametric lower bounds for a large class of

  18. Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Croux, C.; Fried, R.; Gijbels, I.; Mahieu, K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable

  19. GOES-R: Satellite Insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Austin J.; Leon, Nancy J.; Novati, Alexander; Lincoln, Laura K.; Fisher, Diane K.

    2012-01-01

    GOES-R: Satellite Insight seeks to bring awareness of the GOES-R (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite -- R Series) satellite currently in development to an audience of all ages on the emerging medium of mobile games. The iPhone app (Satellite Insight) was created for the GOES-R Program. The app describes in simple terms the types of data products that can be produced from GOES-R measurements. The game is easy to learn, yet challenging for all audiences. It includes educational content and a path to further information about GOESR, its technology, and the benefits of the data it collects. The game features action-puzzle game play in which the player must prevent an overflow of data by matching falling blocks that represent different types of GOES-R data. The game adds more different types of data blocks over time, as long as the player can prevent a data overflow condition. Points are awarded for matches, and players can compete with themselves to beat their highest score.

  20. Time Series Remote Sensing in Monitoring the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Plant Invasions: A Study of Invasive Saltcedar (Tamarix Spp.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diao, Chunyuan

    In today's big data era, the increasing availability of satellite and airborne platforms at various spatial and temporal scales creates unprecedented opportunities to understand the complex and dynamic systems (e.g., plant invasion). Time series remote sensing is becoming more and more important to monitor the earth system dynamics and interactions. To date, most of the time series remote sensing studies have been conducted with the images acquired at coarse spatial scale, due to their relatively high temporal resolution. The construction of time series at fine spatial scale, however, is limited to few or discrete images acquired within or across years. The objective of this research is to advance the time series remote sensing at fine spatial scale, particularly to shift from discrete time series remote sensing to continuous time series remote sensing. The objective will be achieved through the following aims: 1) Advance intra-annual time series remote sensing under the pure-pixel assumption; 2) Advance intra-annual time series remote sensing under the mixed-pixel assumption; 3) Advance inter-annual time series remote sensing in monitoring the land surface dynamics; and 4) Advance the species distribution model with time series remote sensing. Taking invasive saltcedar as an example, four methods (i.e., phenological time series remote sensing model, temporal partial unmixing method, multiyear spectral angle clustering model, and time series remote sensing-based spatially explicit species distribution model) were developed to achieve the objectives. Results indicated that the phenological time series remote sensing model could effectively map saltcedar distributions through characterizing the seasonal phenological dynamics of plant species throughout the year. The proposed temporal partial unmixing method, compared to conventional unmixing methods, could more accurately estimate saltcedar abundance within a pixel by exploiting the adequate temporal signatures of

  1. Detecting discontinuities in GNSS coordinate time series with STARS: case study, the Bologna and Medicina GPS sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruni, S.; Zerbini, Susanna; Raicich, F.; Errico, M.; Santi, E.

    2014-12-01

    Global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) data are a fundamental source of information for achieving a better understanding of geophysical and climate-related phenomena. However, discontinuities in the coordinate time series might be a severe limiting factor for the reliable estimate of long-term trends. A methodological approach has been adapted from Rodionov (Geophys Res Lett 31:L09204, 2004; Geophys Res Lett 31:L12707, 2006) and from Rodionov and Overland (J Marine Sci 62:328-332, 2005) to identify both the epoch of occurrence and the magnitude of jumps corrupting GNSS data sets without any a priori information on these quantities. The procedure is based on the Sequential t test Analysis of Regime Shifts (STARS) (Rodionov in Geophys Res Lett 31:L09204, 2004). The method has been tested against a synthetic data set characterized by typical features exhibited by real GNSS time series, such as linear trend, seasonal cycle, jumps, missing epochs and a combination of white and flicker noise. The results show that the offsets identified by the algorithm are split into 48 % of true-positive, 28 % of false-positive and 24 % of false-negative events. The procedure has then been applied to GPS coordinate time series of stations located in the southeastern Po Plain, in Italy. The series span more than 15 years and are affected by offsets of different nature. The methodology proves to be effective, as confirmed by the comparison between the corrected GPS time series and those obtained by other observation techniques.

  2. Characterizing time series via complexity-entropy curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Haroldo V.; Jauregui, Max; Zunino, Luciano; Lenzi, Ervin K.

    2017-06-01

    The search for patterns in time series is a very common task when dealing with complex systems. This is usually accomplished by employing a complexity measure such as entropies and fractal dimensions. However, such measures usually only capture a single aspect of the system dynamics. Here, we propose a family of complexity measures for time series based on a generalization of the complexity-entropy causality plane. By replacing the Shannon entropy by a monoparametric entropy (Tsallis q entropy) and after considering the proper generalization of the statistical complexity (q complexity), we build up a parametric curve (the q -complexity-entropy curve) that is used for characterizing and classifying time series. Based on simple exact results and numerical simulations of stochastic processes, we show that these curves can distinguish among different long-range, short-range, and oscillating correlated behaviors. Also, we verify that simulated chaotic and stochastic time series can be distinguished based on whether these curves are open or closed. We further test this technique in experimental scenarios related to chaotic laser intensity, stock price, sunspot, and geomagnetic dynamics, confirming its usefulness. Finally, we prove that these curves enhance the automatic classification of time series with long-range correlations and interbeat intervals of healthy subjects and patients with heart disease.

  3. Complex network approach to fractional time series

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manshour, Pouya [Physics Department, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr 75169 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    In order to extract correlation information inherited in stochastic time series, the visibility graph algorithm has been recently proposed, by which a time series can be mapped onto a complex network. We demonstrate that the visibility algorithm is not an appropriate one to study the correlation aspects of a time series. We then employ the horizontal visibility algorithm, as a much simpler one, to map fractional processes onto complex networks. The degree distributions are shown to have parabolic exponential forms with Hurst dependent fitting parameter. Further, we take into account other topological properties such as maximum eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix and the degree assortativity, and show that such topological quantities can also be used to predict the Hurst exponent, with an exception for anti-persistent fractional Gaussian noises. To solve this problem, we take into account the Spearman correlation coefficient between nodes' degrees and their corresponding data values in the original time series.

  4. A data-driven approach for denoising GNSS position time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanyan; Xu, Caijun; Yi, Lei; Fang, Rongxin

    2017-12-01

    Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) datasets suffer from common mode error (CME) and other unmodeled errors. To decrease the noise level in GNSS positioning, we propose a new data-driven adaptive multiscale denoising method in this paper. Both synthetic and real-world long-term GNSS datasets were employed to assess the performance of the proposed method, and its results were compared with those of stacking filtering, principal component analysis (PCA) and the recently developed multiscale multiway PCA. It is found that the proposed method can significantly eliminate the high-frequency white noise and remove the low-frequency CME. Furthermore, the proposed method is more precise for denoising GNSS signals than the other denoising methods. For example, in the real-world example, our method reduces the mean standard deviation of the north, east and vertical components from 1.54 to 0.26, 1.64 to 0.21 and 4.80 to 0.72 mm, respectively. Noise analysis indicates that for the original signals, a combination of power-law plus white noise model can be identified as the best noise model. For the filtered time series using our method, the generalized Gauss-Markov model is the best noise model with the spectral indices close to - 3, indicating that flicker walk noise can be identified. Moreover, the common mode error in the unfiltered time series is significantly reduced by the proposed method. After filtering with our method, a combination of power-law plus white noise model is the best noise model for the CMEs in the study region.

  5. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2008-01-01

    An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.

  6. Incremental fuzzy C medoids clustering of time series data using dynamic time warping distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yongli; Chen, Jingli; Wu, Shuai; Liu, Zhizhong; Chao, Hao

    2018-01-01

    Clustering time series data is of great significance since it could extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics. Especially in biomedical engineering, outstanding clustering algorithms for time series may help improve the health level of people. Considering data scale and time shifts of time series, in this paper, we introduce two incremental fuzzy clustering algorithms based on a Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance. For recruiting Single-Pass and Online patterns, our algorithms could handle large-scale time series data by splitting it into a set of chunks which are processed sequentially. Besides, our algorithms select DTW to measure distance of pair-wise time series and encourage higher clustering accuracy because DTW could determine an optimal match between any two time series by stretching or compressing segments of temporal data. Our new algorithms are compared to some existing prominent incremental fuzzy clustering algorithms on 12 benchmark time series datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed approaches could yield high quality clusters and were better than all the competitors in terms of clustering accuracy.

  7. Incremental fuzzy C medoids clustering of time series data using dynamic time warping distance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jingli; Wu, Shuai; Liu, Zhizhong; Chao, Hao

    2018-01-01

    Clustering time series data is of great significance since it could extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics. Especially in biomedical engineering, outstanding clustering algorithms for time series may help improve the health level of people. Considering data scale and time shifts of time series, in this paper, we introduce two incremental fuzzy clustering algorithms based on a Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance. For recruiting Single-Pass and Online patterns, our algorithms could handle large-scale time series data by splitting it into a set of chunks which are processed sequentially. Besides, our algorithms select DTW to measure distance of pair-wise time series and encourage higher clustering accuracy because DTW could determine an optimal match between any two time series by stretching or compressing segments of temporal data. Our new algorithms are compared to some existing prominent incremental fuzzy clustering algorithms on 12 benchmark time series datasets. The experimental results show that the proposed approaches could yield high quality clusters and were better than all the competitors in terms of clustering accuracy. PMID:29795600

  8. The foundations of modern time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Terence C

    2011-01-01

    This book develops the analysis of Time Series from its formal beginnings in the 1890s through to the publication of Box and Jenkins' watershed publication in 1970, showing how these methods laid the foundations for the modern techniques of Time Series analysis that are in use today.

  9. Assessing Temporal Stability for Coarse Scale Satellite Moisture Validation in the Maqu Area, Tibet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatti, Haris Akram; Rientjes, Tom; Verhoef, Wouter; Yaseen, Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates if the temporal stability concept is applicable to a time series of satellite soil moisture images so to extend the common procedure of satellite image validation. The area of study is the Maqu area, which is located in the northeastern part of the Tibetan plateau. The network serves validation purposes of coarse scale (25–50 km) satellite soil moisture products and comprises 20 stations with probes installed at depths of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80 cm. The study period is 2009. The temporal stability concept is applied to all five depths of the soil moisture measuring network and to a time series of satellite-based moisture products from the Advance Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). The in-situ network is also assessed by Pearsons's correlation analysis. Assessments by the temporal stability concept proved to be useful and results suggest that probe measurements at 10 cm depth best match to the satellite observations. The Mean Relative Difference plot for satellite pixels shows that a RMSM pixel can be identified but in our case this pixel does not overlay any in-situ station. Also, the RMSM pixel does not overlay any of the Representative Mean Soil Moisture (RMSM) stations of the five probe depths. Pearson's correlation analysis on in-situ measurements suggests that moisture patterns over time are more persistent than over space. Since this study presents first results on the application of the temporal stability concept to a series of satellite images, we recommend further tests to become more conclusive on effectiveness to broaden the procedure of satellite validation. PMID:23959237

  10. Time series clustering in large data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Fejfar

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The clustering of time series is a widely researched area. There are many methods for dealing with this task. We are actually using the Self-organizing map (SOM with the unsupervised learning algorithm for clustering of time series. After the first experiment (Fejfar, Weinlichová, Šťastný, 2009 it seems that the whole concept of the clustering algorithm is correct but that we have to perform time series clustering on much larger dataset to obtain more accurate results and to find the correlation between configured parameters and results more precisely. The second requirement arose in a need for a well-defined evaluation of results. It seems useful to use sound recordings as instances of time series again. There are many recordings to use in digital libraries, many interesting features and patterns can be found in this area. We are searching for recordings with the similar development of information density in this experiment. It can be used for musical form investigation, cover songs detection and many others applications.The objective of the presented paper is to compare clustering results made with different parameters of feature vectors and the SOM itself. We are describing time series in a simplistic way evaluating standard deviations for separated parts of recordings. The resulting feature vectors are clustered with the SOM in batch training mode with different topologies varying from few neurons to large maps.There are other algorithms discussed, usable for finding similarities between time series and finally conclusions for further research are presented. We also present an overview of the related actual literature and projects.

  11. Real-time monitoring of seismic data using satellite telemetry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Merucci

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available This article describes the ARGO Satellite Seismic Network (ARGO SSN as a reliable system for monitoring, collection, visualisation and analysis of seismic and geophysical low-frequency data, The satellite digital telemetry system is composed of peripheral geophysical stations, a centraI communications node (master sta- tion located in CentraI Italy, and a data collection and processing centre located at ING (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica, Rome. The task of the peripheral stations is to digitalise and send via satellite the geophysical data collected by the various sensors to the master station. The master station receives the data and forwards them via satellite to the ING in Rome; it also performs alI the monitoring functions of satellite communications. At the data collection and processing centre of ING, the data are received and analysed in real time, the seismic events are identified and recorded, the low-frequency geophysical data are stored. In addition, the generaI sta- tus of the satellite network and of each peripheral station connected, is monitored. The procedure for analysjs of acquired seismic signals allows the automatic calculation of local magnitude and duration magnitude The communication and data exchange between the seismic networks of Greece, Spain and Italy is the fruit of a recent development in the field of technology of satellite transmission of ARGO SSN (project of European Community "Southern Europe Network for Analysis of Seismic Data"

  12. Transmission of linear regression patterns between time series: from relationship in time series to complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong; Ding, Yinghui

    2014-07-01

    The linear regression parameters between two time series can be different under different lengths of observation period. If we study the whole period by the sliding window of a short period, the change of the linear regression parameters is a process of dynamic transmission over time. We tackle fundamental research that presents a simple and efficient computational scheme: a linear regression patterns transmission algorithm, which transforms linear regression patterns into directed and weighted networks. The linear regression patterns (nodes) are defined by the combination of intervals of the linear regression parameters and the results of the significance testing under different sizes of the sliding window. The transmissions between adjacent patterns are defined as edges, and the weights of the edges are the frequency of the transmissions. The major patterns, the distance, and the medium in the process of the transmission can be captured. The statistical results of weighted out-degree and betweenness centrality are mapped on timelines, which shows the features of the distribution of the results. Many measurements in different areas that involve two related time series variables could take advantage of this algorithm to characterize the dynamic relationships between the time series from a new perspective.

  13. A new approach for agroecosystems monitoring using high-revisit multitemporal satellite data series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, M.; Moclán, C.; Romo, A.; Pirondini, F.

    2014-10-01

    With increasing population pressure throughout the world and the need for increased agricultural production there is a definite need for improved management of the world's agricultural resources. Comprehensive, reliable and timely information on agricultural resources is necessary for the implementation of effective management decisions. In that sense, the demand for high-quality and high-frequency geo-information for monitoring of agriculture and its associated ecosystems has been growing in the recent decades. Satellite image data enable direct observation of large areas at frequent intervals and therefore allow unprecedented mapping and monitoring of crops evolution. Furthermore, real time analysis can assist in making timely management decisions that affect the outcome of the crops. The DEIMOS-1 satellite, owned and operated by ELECNOR DEIMOS IMAGING (Spain), provides 22m, 3-band imagery with a very wide (620-km) swath, and has been specifically designed to produce high-frequency revisit on very large areas. This capability has been proved through the contracts awarded to Airbus Defence and Space every year since 2011, where DEIMOS-1 has provided the USDA with the bulk of the imagery used to monitor the crop season in the Lower 48, in cooperation with its twin satellite DMCii's UK-DMC2. Furthermore, high density agricultural areas have been targeted with increased frequency and analyzed in near real time to monitor tightly the evolution. In this paper we present the results obtained from a campaign carried out in 2013 with DEIMOS-1 and UK-DMC2 satellites. These campaigns provided a high-frequency revisit of target areas, with one image every two days on average: almost a ten-fold frequency improvement with respect to Landsat-8. The results clearly show the effectiveness of a high-frequency monitoring approach with high resolution images with respect to classic strategies where results are more exposed to weather conditions.

  14. Lag space estimation in time series modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to investigate some techniques for finding the relevant lag-space, i.e. input information, for time series modelling. This is an important aspect of time series modelling, as it conditions the design of the model through the regressor vector a.k.a. the input layer...

  15. A Time Series Analysis of Global Soil Moisture Data Products for Water Cycle Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, X.; Yin, J.; Liu, J.; Fang, L.; Hain, C.; Ferraro, R. R.; Weng, F.

    2017-12-01

    Water is essential for sustaining life on our planet Earth and water cycle is one of the most important processes of out weather and climate system. As one of the major components of the water cycle, soil moisture impacts significantly the other water cycle components (e.g. evapotranspiration, runoff, etc) and the carbon cycle (e.g. plant/crop photosynthesis and respiration). Understanding of soil moisture status and dynamics is crucial for monitoring and predicting the weather, climate, hydrology and ecological processes. Satellite remote sensing has been used for soil moisture observation since the launch of the Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on NASA's Nimbus-7 satellite in 1978. Many satellite soil moisture data products have been made available to the science communities and general public. The soil moisture operational product system (SMOPS) of NOAA NESDIS has been operationally providing global soil moisture data products from each of the currently available microwave satellite sensors and their blends. This presentation will provide an update of SMOPS products. The time series of each of these soil moisture data products are analyzed against other data products, such as precipitation and evapotranspiration from other independent data sources such as the North America Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Temporal characteristics of these water cycle components are explored against some historical events, such as the 2010 Russian, 2010 China and 2012 United States droughts, 2015 South Carolina floods, etc. Finally whether a merged global soil moisture data product can be used as a climate data record is evaluated based on the above analyses.

  16. Time-series prediction and applications a machine intelligence approach

    CERN Document Server

    Konar, Amit

    2017-01-01

    This book presents machine learning and type-2 fuzzy sets for the prediction of time-series with a particular focus on business forecasting applications. It also proposes new uncertainty management techniques in an economic time-series using type-2 fuzzy sets for prediction of the time-series at a given time point from its preceding value in fluctuating business environments. It employs machine learning to determine repetitively occurring similar structural patterns in the time-series and uses stochastic automaton to predict the most probabilistic structure at a given partition of the time-series. Such predictions help in determining probabilistic moves in a stock index time-series Primarily written for graduate students and researchers in computer science, the book is equally useful for researchers/professionals in business intelligence and stock index prediction. A background of undergraduate level mathematics is presumed, although not mandatory, for most of the sections. Exercises with tips are provided at...

  17. A Time Series Forecasting Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Zhao-Yu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel time series forecasting method based on a weighted self-constructing clustering technique. The weighted self-constructing clustering processes all the data patterns incrementally. If a data pattern is not similar enough to an existing cluster, it forms a new cluster of its own. However, if a data pattern is similar enough to an existing cluster, it is removed from the cluster it currently belongs to and added to the most similar cluster. During the clustering process, weights are learned for each cluster. Given a series of time-stamped data up to time t, we divide it into a set of training patterns. By using the weighted self-constructing clustering, the training patterns are grouped into a set of clusters. To estimate the value at time t + 1, we find the k nearest neighbors of the input pattern and use these k neighbors to decide the estimation. Experimental results are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  18. Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System Failure Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nino Prieto, Omar Ariosto; Colmenares Guillen, Luis Enrique

    2013-09-01

    In this paper the Real Time Fire Reconnaissance Satellite Monitoring System is presented. This architecture is a legacy of the Detection System for Real-Time Physical Variables which is undergoing a patent process in Mexico. The methodologies for this design are the Structured Analysis for Real Time (SA- RT) [8], and the software is carried out by LACATRE (Langage d'aide à la Conception d'Application multitâche Temps Réel) [9,10] Real Time formal language. The system failures model is analyzed and the proposal is based on the formal language for the design of critical systems and Risk Assessment; AltaRica. This formal architecture uses satellites as input sensors and it was adapted from the original model which is a design pattern for physical variation detection in Real Time. The original design, whose task is to monitor events such as natural disasters and health related applications, or actual sickness monitoring and prevention, as the Real Time Diabetes Monitoring System, among others. Some related work has been presented on the Mexican Space Agency (AEM) Creation and Consultation Forums (2010-2011), and throughout the International Mexican Aerospace Science and Technology Society (SOMECYTA) international congress held in San Luis Potosí, México (2012). This Architecture will allow a Real Time Fire Satellite Monitoring, which will reduce the damage and danger caused by fires which consumes the forests and tropical forests of Mexico. This new proposal, permits having a new system that impacts on disaster prevention, by combining national and international technologies and cooperation for the benefit of humankind.

  19. NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) Radiometer Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series offers the advantage of daily global coverage, by making nearly polar orbits 14 times per day...

  20. Stochastic nature of series of waiting times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anvari, Mehrnaz; Aghamohammadi, Cina; Dashti-Naserabadi, H.; Salehi, E.; Behjat, E.; Qorbani, M.; Khazaei Nezhad, M.; Zirak, M.; Hadjihosseini, Ali; Peinke, Joachim; Tabar, M. Reza Rahimi

    2013-06-01

    Although fluctuations in the waiting time series have been studied for a long time, some important issues such as its long-range memory and its stochastic features in the presence of nonstationarity have so far remained unstudied. Here we find that the “waiting times” series for a given increment level have long-range correlations with Hurst exponents belonging to the interval 1/2time distribution. We find that the logarithmic difference of waiting times series has a short-range correlation, and then we study its stochastic nature using the Markovian method and determine the corresponding Kramers-Moyal coefficients. As an example, we analyze the velocity fluctuations in high Reynolds number turbulence and determine the level dependence of Markov time scales, as well as the drift and diffusion coefficients. We show that the waiting time distributions exhibit power law tails, and we were able to model the distribution with a continuous time random walk.

  1. Estimating the Impact of Urban Expansion on Land Subsidence Using Time Series of DMSP Night-Time Light Satellite Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Zhu, L.; Zhou, Q.

    2018-04-01

    In recent decades, urbanization has resulted a massive increase in the amount of infrastructure especially large buildings in large cities worldwide. There has been a noticeable expansion of entire cities both horizontally and vertically. One of the common consequences of urban expansion is the increase of ground loads, which may trigger land subsidence and can be a potential threat of public safety. Monitoring trends of urban expansion and land subsidence using remote sensing technology is needed to ensure safety along with urban planning and development. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Operational Line scan System (DMSP/OLS) Night-Time Light (NTL) images have been used to study urbanization at a regional scale, proving the capability of recognizing urban expansion patterns. In the current study, a normalized illuminated urban area dome volume (IUADV) based on inter-calibrated DMSP/OLS NTL images is shown as a practical approach for estimating urban expansion of Beijing at a single period in time and over subsequent years. To estimate the impact of urban expansion on land subsidence, IUADV was correlated with land subsidence rates obtained using the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterers (StaMPS) approach within the Persistent Scatterers InSAR (PSInSAR) methodology. Moderate correlations are observed between the urban expansion based on the DMSP/OLS NTL images and land subsidence. The correlation coefficients between the urban expansion of each year and land subsidence tends to gradually decrease over time (Coefficient of determination R = 0.80 - 0.64 from year 2005 to year 2010), while the urban expansion of two sequential years exhibit an opposite trend (R = 0.29 - 0.57 from year 2005 to year 2010) except for the two sequential years between 2007 and 2008 (R = 0.14).

  2. Efficient Approximate OLAP Querying Over Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perera, Kasun Baruhupolage Don Kasun Sanjeewa; Hahmann, Martin; Lehner, Wolfgang

    2016-01-01

    The ongoing trend for data gathering not only produces larger volumes of data, but also increases the variety of recorded data types. Out of these, especially time series, e.g. various sensor readings, have attracted attention in the domains of business intelligence and decision making. As OLAP...... queries play a major role in these domains, it is desirable to also execute them on time series data. While this is not a problem on the conceptual level, it can become a bottleneck with regards to query run-time. In general, processing OLAP queries gets more computationally intensive as the volume...... of data grows. This is a particular problem when querying time series data, which generally contains multiple measures recorded at fine time granularities. Usually, this issue is addressed either by scaling up hardware or by employing workload based query optimization techniques. However, these solutions...

  3. A Dynamic Fuzzy Cluster Algorithm for Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Ji

    2013-01-01

    clustering time series by introducing the definition of key point and improving FCM algorithm. The proposed algorithm works by determining those time series whose class labels are vague and further partitions them into different clusters over time. The main advantage of this approach compared with other existing algorithms is that the property of some time series belonging to different clusters over time can be partially revealed. Results from simulation-based experiments on geographical data demonstrate the excellent performance and the desired results have been obtained. The proposed algorithm can be applied to solve other clustering problems in data mining.

  4. A novel weight determination method for time series data aggregation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Paiheng; Zhang, Rong; Deng, Yong

    2017-09-01

    Aggregation in time series is of great importance in time series smoothing, predicting and other time series analysis process, which makes it crucial to address the weights in times series correctly and reasonably. In this paper, a novel method to obtain the weights in time series is proposed, in which we adopt induced ordered weighted aggregation (IOWA) operator and visibility graph averaging (VGA) operator and linearly combine the weights separately generated by the two operator. The IOWA operator is introduced to the weight determination of time series, through which the time decay factor is taken into consideration. The VGA operator is able to generate weights with respect to the degree distribution in the visibility graph constructed from the corresponding time series, which reflects the relative importance of vertices in time series. The proposed method is applied to two practical datasets to illustrate its merits. The aggregation of Construction Cost Index (CCI) demonstrates the ability of proposed method to smooth time series, while the aggregation of The Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) illustrate how proposed method maintain the variation tendency of original data.

  5. Foundations of Sequence-to-Sequence Modeling for Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Kuznetsov, Vitaly; Mariet, Zelda

    2018-01-01

    The availability of large amounts of time series data, paired with the performance of deep-learning algorithms on a broad class of problems, has recently led to significant interest in the use of sequence-to-sequence models for time series forecasting. We provide the first theoretical analysis of this time series forecasting framework. We include a comparison of sequence-to-sequence modeling to classical time series models, and as such our theory can serve as a quantitative guide for practiti...

  6. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Precipitation Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global precipitation time series provides time series charts showing observations of daily precipitation as well as accumulated precipitation compared to normal...

  7. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Global Temperature Time Series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The global temperature time series provides time series charts using station based observations of daily temperature. These charts provide information about the...

  8. Recurrent Neural Network Applications for Astronomical Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protopapas, Pavlos

    2017-06-01

    The benefits of good predictive models in astronomy lie in early event prediction systems and effective resource allocation. Current time series methods applicable to regular time series have not evolved to generalize for irregular time series. In this talk, I will describe two Recurrent Neural Network methods, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Echo State Networks (ESNs) for predicting irregular time series. Feature engineering along with a non-linear modeling proved to be an effective predictor. For noisy time series, the prediction is improved by training the network on error realizations using the error estimates from astronomical light curves. In addition to this, we propose a new neural network architecture to remove correlation from the residuals in order to improve prediction and compensate for the noisy data. Finally, I show how to set hyperparameters for a stable and performant solution correctly. In this work, we circumvent this obstacle by optimizing ESN hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization with Gaussian Process priors. This automates the tuning procedure, enabling users to employ the power of RNN without needing an in-depth understanding of the tuning procedure.

  9. Estimating and Analyzing Savannah Phenology with a Lagged Time Series Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boke-Olen, Niklas; Lehsten, Veiko; Ardo, Jonas

    2016-01-01

    cycle due to their areal coverage and can have an effect on the food security in regions that depend on subsistence farming. In this study we investigate how soil moisture, mean annual precipitation, and day length control savannah phenology by developing a lagged time series model. The model uses...... climate data for 15 flux tower sites across four continents, and normalized difference vegetation index from satellite to optimize a statistical phenological model. We show that all three variables can be used to estimate savannah phenology on a global scale. However, it was not possible to create...... a simplified savannah model that works equally well for all sites on the global scale without inclusion of more site specific parameters. The simplified model showed no bias towards tree cover or between continents and resulted in a cross-validated r2 of 0.6 and root mean squared error of 0.1. We therefore...

  10. Mapping afforestation and its carbon stock using time-series Landsat stacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L.; Wu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Three Norths Shelter Forest Programme (TNSFP) is the largest afforestation reconstruction project in the world. Remote sensing is a crucial tool to map land cover and cover changes, but it is still challenging to accurately quantify the plantation and its carbon stock from time-series satellite images. In this paper, the Yulin district, Shaanxi province, representing a typical afforestation area in the TNSFP region, was selected as the study area, and there were twenty-nine Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+ epochs were collected from 1974 to 2012 to reconstruct the forest changes and carbon stock in last 40 years. Firstly, the Landsat ground surface reflectance (GSR) images from 1974 to 2013 were collected and processed based on 6S atmospheric transfer code and a relative reflectance normalization algorithm. Subsequently, we developed a vegetation change tracking method to reconstruct the forest change history (afforestation and deforestation) from the dense time-series Landsat GSR images based on the integrated forest z-score (IFZ) model, and the afforestation age was successfully retrieved from the Landsat time-series stacks in the last forty years and shown to be consistent with the surveyed tree ages, with a RMSE value of 4.32 years and a determination coefficient (R²) of 0.824. Then, the AGB regression models were successfully developed by integrating vegetation indices and tree age. The simple ratio vegetation index (SR) is the best candidate of the commonly used vegetation indices for estimating forest AGB, and the forest AGB model was significantly improved using the combination of SR and tree age, with R² values from 0.50 to 0.727. Finally, the forest AGB images were mapped at eight epochs from 1985 to 2013 using SR and afforestation age. The total forest AGB in six counties of Yulin District increased by 20.8 G kg, from 5.8 G kg in 1986 to 26.6 G kg in 2013, a total increase of 360%. For the forest area since 1974, the forest AGB density increased from 15.72 t

  11. Transition Icons for Time-Series Visualization and Exploratory Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickerson, Paul V; Baharloo, Raheleh; Wanigatunga, Amal A; Manini, Todd M; Tighe, Patrick J; Rashidi, Parisa

    2018-03-01

    The modern healthcare landscape has seen the rapid emergence of techniques and devices that temporally monitor and record physiological signals. The prevalence of time-series data within the healthcare field necessitates the development of methods that can analyze the data in order to draw meaningful conclusions. Time-series behavior is notoriously difficult to intuitively understand due to its intrinsic high-dimensionality, which is compounded in the case of analyzing groups of time series collected from different patients. Our framework, which we call transition icons, renders common patterns in a visual format useful for understanding the shared behavior within groups of time series. Transition icons are adept at detecting and displaying subtle differences and similarities, e.g., between measurements taken from patients receiving different treatment strategies or stratified by demographics. We introduce various methods that collectively allow for exploratory analysis of groups of time series, while being free of distribution assumptions and including simple heuristics for parameter determination. Our technique extracts discrete transition patterns from symbolic aggregate approXimation representations, and compiles transition frequencies into a bag of patterns constructed for each group. These transition frequencies are normalized and aligned in icon form to intuitively display the underlying patterns. We demonstrate the transition icon technique for two time-series datasets-postoperative pain scores, and hip-worn accelerometer activity counts. We believe transition icons can be an important tool for researchers approaching time-series data, as they give rich and intuitive information about collective time-series behaviors.

  12. Multifractal analysis of visibility graph-based Ito-related connectivity time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czechowski, Zbigniew; Lovallo, Michele; Telesca, Luciano

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we investigate multifractal properties of connectivity time series resulting from the visibility graph applied to normally distributed time series generated by the Ito equations with multiplicative power-law noise. We show that multifractality of the connectivity time series (i.e., the series of numbers of links outgoing any node) increases with the exponent of the power-law noise. The multifractality of the connectivity time series could be due to the width of connectivity degree distribution that can be related to the exit time of the associated Ito time series. Furthermore, the connectivity time series are characterized by persistence, although the original Ito time series are random; this is due to the procedure of visibility graph that, connecting the values of the time series, generates persistence but destroys most of the nonlinear correlations. Moreover, the visibility graph is sensitive for detecting wide "depressions" in input time series.

  13. LAI, FAPAR and FCOVER products derived from AVHRR long time series: principles and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verger, A.; Baret, F.; Weiss, M.; Lacaze, R.; Makhmara, H.; Pacholczyk, P.; Smets, B.; Kandasamy, S.; Vermote, E.

    2012-04-01

    Continuous and long term global monitoring of the terrestrial biosphere has draught an intense interest in the recent years in the context of climate and global change. Developing methodologies for generating historical data records from data collected with different satellite sensors over the past three decades by taking benefits from the improvements identified in the processing of the new generation sensors is a new central issue in remote sensing community. In this context, the Bio-geophysical Parameters (BioPar) service within Geoland2 project (http://www.geoland2.eu) aims at developing pre-operational infrastructures for providing global land products both in near real time and off-line mode with long time series. In this contribution, we describe the principles of the GEOLAND algorithm for generating long term datasets of three key biophysical variables, leaf area index (LAI), Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetic Active Radiation (FAPAR) and cover fraction (FCOVER), that play a key role in several processes, including photosynthesis, respiration and transpiration. LAI, FAPAR and FCOVER are produced globally from AVHRR Long Term Data Record (LTDR) for the 1981-2000 period at 0.05° spatial resolution and 10 days temporal sampling frequency. The proposed algorithm aims to ensure robustness of the derived long time series and consistency with the ones developed in the recent years, and particularly with GEOLAND products derived from VEGETATION sensor. The approach is based on the capacity of neural networks to learn a particular biophysical product (GEOLAND) from reflectances from another sensor (AVHRR normalized reflectances in the red and near infrared bands). Outliers due to possible cloud contamination or residual atmospheric correction are iteratively eliminated. Prior information based on the climatology is used to get more robust estimates. A specific gap filing and smoothing procedure was applied to generate continuous and smooth time series of decadal

  14. The solar panels on the GOES-L satellite are deployed

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-01-01

    Loral workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., check out the solar panels of the GOES-L weather satellite, to be launched from Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) aboard an Atlas II rocket in late March. The GOES-L is the fourth of a new advanced series of geostationary weather satellites for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It is a three-axis inertially stabilized spacecraft that will provide pictures and perform atmospheric sounding at the same time. Once launched, the satellite, to be designated GOES-11, will undergo checkout and provide backup capabilities for the existing, aging GOES East weather satellite.

  15. Mathematical foundations of time series analysis a concise introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Beran, Jan

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a concise introduction to the mathematical foundations of time series analysis, with an emphasis on mathematical clarity. The text is reduced to the essential logical core, mostly using the symbolic language of mathematics, thus enabling readers to very quickly grasp the essential reasoning behind time series analysis. It appeals to anybody wanting to understand time series in a precise, mathematical manner. It is suitable for graduate courses in time series analysis but is equally useful as a reference work for students and researchers alike.

  16. Time series analysis in the social sciences the fundamentals

    CERN Document Server

    Shin, Youseop

    2017-01-01

    Times Series Analysis in the Social Sciences is a practical and highly readable introduction written exclusively for students and researchers whose mathematical background is limited to basic algebra. The book focuses on fundamental elements of time series analysis that social scientists need to understand so they can employ time series analysis for their research and practice. Through step-by-step explanations and using monthly violent crime rates as case studies, this book explains univariate time series from the preliminary visual analysis through the modeling of seasonality, trends, and re

  17. Data imputation analysis for Cosmic Rays time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, R. C.; Lucio, P. S.; Fernandez, J. H.

    2017-05-01

    The occurrence of missing data concerning Galactic Cosmic Rays time series (GCR) is inevitable since loss of data is due to mechanical and human failure or technical problems and different periods of operation of GCR stations. The aim of this study was to perform multiple dataset imputation in order to depict the observational dataset. The study has used the monthly time series of GCR Climax (CLMX) and Roma (ROME) from 1960 to 2004 to simulate scenarios of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% and 90% of missing data compared to observed ROME series, with 50 replicates. Then, the CLMX station as a proxy for allocation of these scenarios was used. Three different methods for monthly dataset imputation were selected: AMÉLIA II - runs the bootstrap Expectation Maximization algorithm, MICE - runs an algorithm via Multivariate Imputation by Chained Equations and MTSDI - an Expectation Maximization algorithm-based method for imputation of missing values in multivariate normal time series. The synthetic time series compared with the observed ROME series has also been evaluated using several skill measures as such as RMSE, NRMSE, Agreement Index, R, R2, F-test and t-test. The results showed that for CLMX and ROME, the R2 and R statistics were equal to 0.98 and 0.96, respectively. It was observed that increases in the number of gaps generate loss of quality of the time series. Data imputation was more efficient with MTSDI method, with negligible errors and best skill coefficients. The results suggest a limit of about 60% of missing data for imputation, for monthly averages, no more than this. It is noteworthy that CLMX, ROME and KIEL stations present no missing data in the target period. This methodology allowed reconstructing 43 time series.

  18. Algorithm for Compressing Time-Series Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, S. Edward, III; Darlington, Edward Hugo

    2012-01-01

    An algorithm based on Chebyshev polynomials effects lossy compression of time-series data or other one-dimensional data streams (e.g., spectral data) that are arranged in blocks for sequential transmission. The algorithm was developed for use in transmitting data from spacecraft scientific instruments to Earth stations. In spite of its lossy nature, the algorithm preserves the information needed for scientific analysis. The algorithm is computationally simple, yet compresses data streams by factors much greater than two. The algorithm is not restricted to spacecraft or scientific uses: it is applicable to time-series data in general. The algorithm can also be applied to general multidimensional data that have been converted to time-series data, a typical example being image data acquired by raster scanning. However, unlike most prior image-data-compression algorithms, this algorithm neither depends on nor exploits the two-dimensional spatial correlations that are generally present in images. In order to understand the essence of this compression algorithm, it is necessary to understand that the net effect of this algorithm and the associated decompression algorithm is to approximate the original stream of data as a sequence of finite series of Chebyshev polynomials. For the purpose of this algorithm, a block of data or interval of time for which a Chebyshev polynomial series is fitted to the original data is denoted a fitting interval. Chebyshev approximation has two properties that make it particularly effective for compressing serial data streams with minimal loss of scientific information: The errors associated with a Chebyshev approximation are nearly uniformly distributed over the fitting interval (this is known in the art as the "equal error property"); and the maximum deviations of the fitted Chebyshev polynomial from the original data have the smallest possible values (this is known in the art as the "min-max property").

  19. Modeling of Volatility with Non-linear Time Series Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kim Song Yon; Kim Mun Chol

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, non-linear time series models are used to describe volatility in financial time series data. To describe volatility, two of the non-linear time series are combined into form TAR (Threshold Auto-Regressive Model) with AARCH (Asymmetric Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) error term and its parameter estimation is studied.

  20. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods.

  1. Development of Dense Time Series 30-m Image Products from the Chinese HJ-1A/B Constellation: A Case Study in Zoige Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinhu Bian

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series remote sensing products with both fine spatial and dense temporal resolutions are urgently needed for many earth system studies. The development of small satellite constellations with identical sensors affords novel opportunities to provide such kind of earth observations. In this paper, a new dense time series 30-m image product was proposed respectively based on an 8-day, 16-day and monthly composition. The products were composited by the Charge Coupled Device (CCD images from the 2-day revisit small satellite constellation for environmental monitoring and disaster mitigation of China (HJ-1A/B. Taking the Zoige plateau in China as a case area where it is covered by highly heterogeneous vegetation landscapes, a detailed methodology was introduced on how to use 183 scenes of CCD images in 2010 to create composite products. The quality of the HJ CCD composites was evaluated by inter-comparison with the monthly 30-m global Web-Enabled Landsat Data (WELD, 16-day 500-m MODIS NDVI, and 8-day 500-m MODIS surface reflectance products. Results showed that the radiometric consistency between HJ and WELD composited Top Of Atmosphere (TOA reflectance was in good agreement except for May, June, July and August when more clouds and invalid data gaps appeared in WELD. Visual assessment and temporal profile analysis also revealed that HJ possessed better visual effects and temporal coherence than that of WELD. The comparison between HJ and MODIS products indicated that HJ composites were radiometrically consistent with MODIS products over areas consisting of large patches of homogeneous surface types, but can better reflect the detailed spatial differences in regions with heterogeneous landscapes. This paper highlights the potential of compositing HJ-1A/B CCD images, allowing for providing a cloud free, time-space consistent, 30-m spatial resolution, and dense in time series image product. Meanwhile, the proposed products could also be treated as a

  2. Developing first time-series of land surface temperature from AATSR with uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, Darren; Remedios, John

    2013-04-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is the radiative skin temperature of the land, and is one of the key parameters in the physics of land-surface processes on regional and global scales. Earth Observation satellites provide the opportunity to obtain global coverage of LST approximately every 3 days or less. One such source of satellite retrieved LST has been the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR); with LST retrieval being implemented in the AATSR Instrument Processing Facility in March 2004. Here we present first regional and global time-series of LST data from AATSR with estimates of uncertainty. Mean changes in temperature over the last decade will be discussed along with regional patterns. Although time-series across all three ATSR missions have previously been constructed (Kogler et al., 2012), the use of low resolution auxiliary data in the retrieval algorithm and non-optimal cloud masking resulted in time-series artefacts. As such, considerable ESA supported development has been carried out on the AATSR data to address these concerns. This includes the integration of high resolution auxiliary data into the retrieval algorithm and subsequent generation of coefficients and tuning parameters, plus the development of an improved cloud mask based on the simulation of clear sky conditions from radiance transfer modelling (Ghent et al., in prep.). Any inference on this LST record is though of limited value without the accompaniment of an uncertainty estimate; wherein the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology quote an uncertainty as "a parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand that is the value of the particular quantity to be measured". Furthermore, pixel level uncertainty fields are a mandatory requirement in the on-going preparation of the LST product for the upcoming Sea and Land Surface Temperature (SLSTR) instrument on-board Sentinel-3

  3. Regional Land Subsidence Analysis in Eastern Beijing Plain by InSAR Time Series and Wavelet Transforms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingliang Gao

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Land subsidence is the disaster phenomenon of environmental geology with regionally surface altitude lowering caused by the natural or man-made factors. Beijing, the capital city of China, has suffered from land subsidence since the 1950s, and extreme groundwater extraction has led to subsidence rates of more than 100 mm/year. In this study, we employ two SAR datasets acquired by Envisat and TerraSAR-X satellites to investigate the surface deformation in Beijing Plain from 2003 to 2013 based on the multi-temporal InSAR technique. Furthermore, we also use observation wells to provide in situ hydraulic head levels to perform the evolution of land subsidence and spatial-temporal changes of groundwater level. Then, we analyze the accumulated displacement and hydraulic head level time series using continuous wavelet transform to separate periodic signal components. Finally, cross wavelet transform (XWT and wavelet transform coherence (WTC are implemented to analyze the relationship between the accumulated displacement and hydraulic head level time series. The results show that the subsidence centers in the northern Beijing Plain is spatially consistent with the groundwater drop funnels. According to the analysis of well based results located in different areas, the long-term groundwater exploitation in the northern subsidence area has led to the continuous decline of the water level, resulting in the inelastic and permanent compaction, while for the monitoring wells located outside the subsidence area, the subsidence time series show obvious elastic deformation characteristics (seasonal characteristics as the groundwater level changes. Moreover, according to the wavelet transformation, the land subsidence time series at monitoring well site lags several months behind the groundwater level change.

  4. Time Transfer Experiment by TCE on the ETS-VIII Satellite

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nakagawa, Fumimaru; Takahashi, Yasuhiro; Amagai, Jun; Tabuchi, Ryo; Hama, Shin'ichi; Hosokawa, Mizuhiko

    2007-01-01

    .... At NICT, we developed Time Comparison Equipment (TCE) both onboard ETS-VIII and in the Earth station for precise time transfer between the atomic clocks on the satellite and a ground reference clock...

  5. Knowledge fusion: Time series modeling followed by pattern recognition applied to unusual sections of background data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burr, T.; Doak, J.; Howell, J.A.; Martinez, D.; Strittmatter, R.

    1996-03-01

    This report describes work performed during FY 95 for the Knowledge Fusion Project, which by the Department of Energy, Office of Nonproliferation and National Security. The project team selected satellite sensor data as the one main example to which its analysis algorithms would be applied. The specific sensor-fusion problem has many generic features that make it a worthwhile problem to attempt to solve in a general way. The generic problem is to recognize events of interest from multiple time series in a possibly noisy background. By implementing a suite of time series modeling and forecasting methods and using well-chosen alarm criteria, we reduce the number of false alarms. We then further reduce the number of false alarms by analyzing all suspicious sections of data, as judged by the alarm criteria, with pattern recognition methods. This report describes the implementation and application of this two-step process for separating events from unusual background. As a fortunate by-product of this activity, it is possible to gain a better understanding of the natural background

  6. Knowledge fusion: Time series modeling followed by pattern recognition applied to unusual sections of background data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burr, T.; Doak, J.; Howell, J.A.; Martinez, D.; Strittmatter, R.

    1996-03-01

    This report describes work performed during FY 95 for the Knowledge Fusion Project, which by the Department of Energy, Office of Nonproliferation and National Security. The project team selected satellite sensor data as the one main example to which its analysis algorithms would be applied. The specific sensor-fusion problem has many generic features that make it a worthwhile problem to attempt to solve in a general way. The generic problem is to recognize events of interest from multiple time series in a possibly noisy background. By implementing a suite of time series modeling and forecasting methods and using well-chosen alarm criteria, we reduce the number of false alarms. We then further reduce the number of false alarms by analyzing all suspicious sections of data, as judged by the alarm criteria, with pattern recognition methods. This report describes the implementation and application of this two-step process for separating events from unusual background. As a fortunate by-product of this activity, it is possible to gain a better understanding of the natural background.

  7. Satellite Ocean Biology: Past, Present, Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClain, Charles R.

    2012-01-01

    Since 1978 when the first satellite ocean color proof-of-concept sensor, the Nimbus-7 Coastal Zone Color Scanner, was launched, much progress has been made in refining the basic measurement concept and expanding the research applications of global satellite time series of biological and optical properties such as chlorophyll-a concentrations. The seminar will review the fundamentals of satellite ocean color measurements (sensor design considerations, on-orbit calibration, atmospheric corrections, and bio-optical algorithms), scientific results from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) missions, and the goals of future NASA missions such as PACE, the Aerosol, Cloud, Ecology (ACE), and Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GeoCAPE) missions.

  8. A window-based time series feature extraction method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katircioglu-Öztürk, Deniz; Güvenir, H Altay; Ravens, Ursula; Baykal, Nazife

    2017-10-01

    This study proposes a robust similarity score-based time series feature extraction method that is termed as Window-based Time series Feature ExtraCtion (WTC). Specifically, WTC generates domain-interpretable results and involves significantly low computational complexity thereby rendering itself useful for densely sampled and populated time series datasets. In this study, WTC is applied to a proprietary action potential (AP) time series dataset on human cardiomyocytes and three precordial leads from a publicly available electrocardiogram (ECG) dataset. This is followed by comparing WTC in terms of predictive accuracy and computational complexity with shapelet transform and fast shapelet transform (which constitutes an accelerated variant of the shapelet transform). The results indicate that WTC achieves a slightly higher classification performance with significantly lower execution time when compared to its shapelet-based alternatives. With respect to its interpretable features, WTC has a potential to enable medical experts to explore definitive common trends in novel datasets. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Analysis of Secular Ground Motions in Istanbul from a Long-Term InSAR Time-Series (1992–2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gokhan Aslan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The identification and measurement of ground deformations in urban areas is of great importance for determining the vulnerable parts of the cities that are prone to geohazards, which is a crucial element of both sustainable urban planning and hazard mitigation. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR time series analysis is a very powerful tool for the operational mapping of ground deformation related to urban subsidence and landslide phenomena. With an analysis spanning almost 25 years of satellite radar observations, we compute an InSAR time series of data from multiple satellites (European Remote Sensing satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2, Envisat, Sentinel-1A, and its twin sensor Sentinel-1B in order to investigate the spatial extent and rate of ground deformation in the megacity of Istanbul. By combining the various multi-track InSAR datasets (291 images in total and analysing persistent scatterers (PS-InSAR, we present mean velocity maps of ground surface displacement in selected areas of Istanbul. We identify several sites along the terrestrial and coastal regions of Istanbul that underwent vertical ground subsidence at varying rates, from 5 ± 1.2 mm/yr to 15 ± 2.1 mm/yr. The results reveal that the most distinctive subsidence patterns are associated with both anthropogenic factors and relatively weak lithologies along the Haramirede valley in particular, where the observed subsidence is up to 10 ± 2 mm/yr. We show that subsidence has been occurring along the Ayamama river stream at a rate of up to 10 ± 1.8 mm/yr since 1992, and has also been slowing down over time following the restoration of the river and stream system. We also identify subsidence at a rate of 8 ± 1.2 mm/yr along the coastal region of Istanbul, which we associate with land reclamation, as well as a very localised subsidence at a rate of 15 ± 2.3 mm/yr starting in 2016 around one of the highest skyscrapers of Istanbul, which was built in 2010.

  10. Prewhitening of hydroclimatic time series? Implications for inferred change and variability across time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Saman; Vogel, Richard

    2018-02-01

    Prewhitening, the process of eliminating or reducing short-term stochastic persistence to enable detection of deterministic change, has been extensively applied to time series analysis of a range of geophysical variables. Despite the controversy around its utility, methodologies for prewhitening time series continue to be a critical feature of a variety of analyses including: trend detection of hydroclimatic variables and reconstruction of climate and/or hydrology through proxy records such as tree rings. With a focus on the latter, this paper presents a generalized approach to exploring the impact of a wide range of stochastic structures of short- and long-term persistence on the variability of hydroclimatic time series. Through this approach, we examine the impact of prewhitening on the inferred variability of time series across time scales. We document how a focus on prewhitened, residual time series can be misleading, as it can drastically distort (or remove) the structure of variability across time scales. Through examples with actual data, we show how such loss of information in prewhitened time series of tree rings (so-called "residual chronologies") can lead to the underestimation of extreme conditions in climate and hydrology, particularly droughts, reconstructed for centuries preceding the historical period.

  11. DTW-APPROACH FOR UNCORRELATED MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES IMPUTATION

    OpenAIRE

    Phan , Thi-Thu-Hong; Poisson Caillault , Emilie; Bigand , André; Lefebvre , Alain

    2017-01-01

    International audience; Missing data are inevitable in almost domains of applied sciences. Data analysis with missing values can lead to a loss of efficiency and unreliable results, especially for large missing sub-sequence(s). Some well-known methods for multivariate time series imputation require high correlations between series or their features. In this paper , we propose an approach based on the shape-behaviour relation in low/un-correlated multivariate time series under an assumption of...

  12. Variable Selection in Time Series Forecasting Using Random Forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hristos Tyralis

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Time series forecasting using machine learning algorithms has gained popularity recently. Random forest is a machine learning algorithm implemented in time series forecasting; however, most of its forecasting properties have remained unexplored. Here we focus on assessing the performance of random forests in one-step forecasting using two large datasets of short time series with the aim to suggest an optimal set of predictor variables. Furthermore, we compare its performance to benchmarking methods. The first dataset is composed by 16,000 simulated time series from a variety of Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA models. The second dataset consists of 135 mean annual temperature time series. The highest predictive performance of RF is observed when using a low number of recent lagged predictor variables. This outcome could be useful in relevant future applications, with the prospect to achieve higher predictive accuracy.

  13. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter

    2008-05-01

    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  14. Building a satellite climate diagnostics data base for real-time climate monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ropelewski, C.F.

    1991-01-01

    The paper discusses the development of a data base, the Satellite Climate Diagnostic Data Base (SCDDB), for real time operational climate monitoring utilizing current satellite data. Special attention is given to the satellite-derived quantities useful for monitoring global climate changes, the requirements of SCDDB, and the use of conventional meteorological data and model assimilated data in developing the SCDDB. Examples of prototype SCDDB products are presented. 10 refs

  15. Segmentation of Nonstationary Time Series with Geometric Clustering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bocharov, Alexei; Thiesson, Bo

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a non-parametric method for segmentation in regimeswitching time-series models. The approach is based on spectral clustering of target-regressor tuples and derives a switching regression tree, where regime switches are modeled by oblique splits. Such models can be learned efficiently...... from data, where clustering is used to propose one single split candidate at each split level. We use the class of ART time series models to serve as illustration, but because of the non-parametric nature of our segmentation approach, it readily generalizes to a wide range of time-series models that go...

  16. Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

    2018-03-01

    The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

  17. The Earth Observation Monitor - Automated monitoring and alerting for spatial time-series data based on OGC web services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberle, J.; Hüttich, C.; Schmullius, C.

    2014-12-01

    Spatial time series data are freely available around the globe from earth observation satellites and meteorological stations for many years until now. They provide useful and important information to detect ongoing changes of the environment; but for end-users it is often too complex to extract this information out of the original time series datasets. This issue led to the development of the Earth Observation Monitor (EOM), an operational framework and research project to provide simple access, analysis and monitoring tools for global spatial time series data. A multi-source data processing middleware in the backend is linked to MODIS data from Land Processes Distributed Archive Center (LP DAAC) and Google Earth Engine as well as daily climate station data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center. OGC Web Processing Services are used to integrate datasets from linked data providers or external OGC-compliant interfaces to the EOM. Users can either use the web portal (webEOM) or the mobile application (mobileEOM) to execute these processing services and to retrieve the requested data for a given point or polygon in userfriendly file formats (CSV, GeoTiff). Beside providing just data access tools, users can also do further time series analyses like trend calculations, breakpoint detections or the derivation of phenological parameters from vegetation time series data. Furthermore data from climate stations can be aggregated over a given time interval. Calculated results can be visualized in the client and downloaded for offline usage. Automated monitoring and alerting of the time series data integrated by the user is provided by an OGC Sensor Observation Service with a coupled OGC Web Notification Service. Users can decide which datasets and parameters are monitored with a given filter expression (e.g., precipitation value higher than x millimeter per day, occurrence of a MODIS Fire point, detection of a time series anomaly). Datasets integrated in the SOS service are

  18. Time Series Decomposition into Oscillation Components and Phase Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Takeru; Komaki, Fumiyasu

    2017-02-01

    Many time series are naturally considered as a superposition of several oscillation components. For example, electroencephalogram (EEG) time series include oscillation components such as alpha, beta, and gamma. We propose a method for decomposing time series into such oscillation components using state-space models. Based on the concept of random frequency modulation, gaussian linear state-space models for oscillation components are developed. In this model, the frequency of an oscillator fluctuates by noise. Time series decomposition is accomplished by this model like the Bayesian seasonal adjustment method. Since the model parameters are estimated from data by the empirical Bayes' method, the amplitudes and the frequencies of oscillation components are determined in a data-driven manner. Also, the appropriate number of oscillation components is determined with the Akaike information criterion (AIC). In this way, the proposed method provides a natural decomposition of the given time series into oscillation components. In neuroscience, the phase of neural time series plays an important role in neural information processing. The proposed method can be used to estimate the phase of each oscillation component and has several advantages over a conventional method based on the Hilbert transform. Thus, the proposed method enables an investigation of the phase dynamics of time series. Numerical results show that the proposed method succeeds in extracting intermittent oscillations like ripples and detecting the phase reset phenomena. We apply the proposed method to real data from various fields such as astronomy, ecology, tidology, and neuroscience.

  19. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2015-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""…[t]he book is great for readers who need to apply the methods and models presented but have little background in mathematics and statistics."" -MAA Reviews Thoroughly updated throughout, Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Second Edition presents the underlying theories of time series analysis that are needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct real-world short- to medium-term statistical forecasts.    Authored by highly-experienced academics and professionals in engineering statistics, the Second Edition features discussions on both

  20. Multi-Scale Dissemination of Time Series Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Qingsong; Zhou, Yongluan; Su, Li

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the problem of continuous dissemination of time series data, such as sensor measurements, to a large number of subscribers. These subscribers fall into multiple subscription levels, where each subscription level is specified by the bandwidth constraint of a subscriber......, which is an abstract indicator for both the physical limits and the amount of data that the subscriber would like to handle. To handle this problem, we propose a system framework for multi-scale time series data dissemination that employs a typical tree-based dissemination network and existing time...

  1. RADON CONCENTRATION TIME SERIES MODELING AND APPLICATION DISCUSSION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stránský, V; Thinová, L

    2017-11-01

    In the year 2010 a continual radon measurement was established at Mladeč Caves in the Czech Republic using a continual radon monitor RADIM3A. In order to model radon time series in the years 2010-15, the Box-Jenkins Methodology, often used in econometrics, was applied. Because of the behavior of radon concentrations (RCs), a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) has been chosen to model the measured time series. This model uses the time series seasonality, previously acquired values and delayed atmospheric parameters, to forecast RC. The developed model for RC time series is called regARIMA(5,1,3). Model residuals could be retrospectively compared with seismic evidence of local or global earthquakes, which occurred during the RCs measurement. This technique enables us to asses if continuously measured RC could serve an earthquake precursor. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Similarity estimators for irregular and age uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2013-09-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many datasets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel based cross correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  3. Similarity estimators for irregular and age-uncertain time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfeld, K.; Kurths, J.

    2014-01-01

    Paleoclimate time series are often irregularly sampled and age uncertain, which is an important technical challenge to overcome for successful reconstruction of past climate variability and dynamics. Visual comparison and interpolation-based linear correlation approaches have been used to infer dependencies from such proxy time series. While the first is subjective, not measurable and not suitable for the comparison of many data sets at a time, the latter introduces interpolation bias, and both face difficulties if the underlying dependencies are nonlinear. In this paper we investigate similarity estimators that could be suitable for the quantitative investigation of dependencies in irregular and age-uncertain time series. We compare the Gaussian-kernel-based cross-correlation (gXCF, Rehfeld et al., 2011) and mutual information (gMI, Rehfeld et al., 2013) against their interpolation-based counterparts and the new event synchronization function (ESF). We test the efficiency of the methods in estimating coupling strength and coupling lag numerically, using ensembles of synthetic stalagmites with short, autocorrelated, linear and nonlinearly coupled proxy time series, and in the application to real stalagmite time series. In the linear test case, coupling strength increases are identified consistently for all estimators, while in the nonlinear test case the correlation-based approaches fail. The lag at which the time series are coupled is identified correctly as the maximum of the similarity functions in around 60-55% (in the linear case) to 53-42% (for the nonlinear processes) of the cases when the dating of the synthetic stalagmite is perfectly precise. If the age uncertainty increases beyond 5% of the time series length, however, the true coupling lag is not identified more often than the others for which the similarity function was estimated. Age uncertainty contributes up to half of the uncertainty in the similarity estimation process. Time series irregularity

  4. Engineering satellite-based navigation and timing global navigation satellite systems, signals, and receivers

    CERN Document Server

    Betz, J

    2016-01-01

    This book describes the design and performance analysis of satnav systems, signals, and receivers. It also provides succinct descriptions and comparisons of all the world’s satnav systems. Its comprehensive and logical structure addresses all satnav signals and systems in operation and being developed. Engineering Satellite-Based Navigation and Timing: Global Navigation Satellite Systems, Signals, and Receivers provides the technical foundation for designing and analyzing satnav signals, systems, and receivers. Its contents and structure address all satnav systems and signals: legacy, modernized, and new. It combines qualitative information with detailed techniques and analyses, providing a comprehensive set of insights and engineering tools for this complex multidisciplinary field. Part I describes system and signal engineering including orbital mechanics and constellation design, signal design principles and underlying considerations, link budgets, qua tifying receiver performance in interference, and e...

  5. Robust Forecasting of Non-Stationary Time Series

    OpenAIRE

    Croux, C.; Fried, R.; Gijbels, I.; Mahieu, K.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust forecasting method for non-stationary time series. The time series is modelled using non-parametric heteroscedastic regression, and fitted by a localized MM-estimator, combining high robustness and large efficiency. The proposed method is shown to produce reliable forecasts in the presence of outliers, non-linearity, and heteroscedasticity. In the absence of outliers, the forecasts are only slightly less precise than those based on a localized Least Squares estima...

  6. Impacts of Satellite Orbit and Clock on Real-Time GPS Point and Relative Positioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Junbo; Wang, Gaojing; Han, Xianquan; Guo, Jiming

    2017-06-12

    Satellite orbit and clock corrections are always treated as known quantities in GPS positioning models. Therefore, any error in the satellite orbit and clock products will probably cause significant consequences for GPS positioning, especially for real-time applications. Currently three types of satellite products have been made available for real-time positioning, including the broadcast ephemeris, the International GNSS Service (IGS) predicted ultra-rapid product, and the real-time product. In this study, these three predicted/real-time satellite orbit and clock products are first evaluated with respect to the post-mission IGS final product, which demonstrates cm to m level orbit accuracies and sub-ns to ns level clock accuracies. Impacts of real-time satellite orbit and clock products on GPS point and relative positioning are then investigated using the P3 and GAMIT software packages, respectively. Numerical results show that the real-time satellite clock corrections affect the point positioning more significantly than the orbit corrections. On the contrary, only the real-time orbit corrections impact the relative positioning. Compared with the positioning solution using the IGS final product with the nominal orbit accuracy of ~2.5 cm, the real-time broadcast ephemeris with ~2 m orbit accuracy provided <2 cm relative positioning error for baselines no longer than 216 km. As for the baselines ranging from 574 to 2982 km, the cm-dm level positioning error was identified for the relative positioning solution using the broadcast ephemeris. The real-time product could result in <5 mm relative positioning accuracy for baselines within 2982 km, slightly better than the predicted ultra-rapid product.

  7. Impacts of Satellite Orbit and Clock on Real-Time GPS Point and Relative Positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junbo Shi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Satellite orbit and clock corrections are always treated as known quantities in GPS positioning models. Therefore, any error in the satellite orbit and clock products will probably cause significant consequences for GPS positioning, especially for real-time applications. Currently three types of satellite products have been made available for real-time positioning, including the broadcast ephemeris, the International GNSS Service (IGS predicted ultra-rapid product, and the real-time product. In this study, these three predicted/real-time satellite orbit and clock products are first evaluated with respect to the post-mission IGS final product, which demonstrates cm to m level orbit accuracies and sub-ns to ns level clock accuracies. Impacts of real-time satellite orbit and clock products on GPS point and relative positioning are then investigated using the P3 and GAMIT software packages, respectively. Numerical results show that the real-time satellite clock corrections affect the point positioning more significantly than the orbit corrections. On the contrary, only the real-time orbit corrections impact the relative positioning. Compared with the positioning solution using the IGS final product with the nominal orbit accuracy of ~2.5 cm, the real-time broadcast ephemeris with ~2 m orbit accuracy provided <2 cm relative positioning error for baselines no longer than 216 km. As for the baselines ranging from 574 to 2982 km, the cm–dm level positioning error was identified for the relative positioning solution using the broadcast ephemeris. The real-time product could result in <5 mm relative positioning accuracy for baselines within 2982 km, slightly better than the predicted ultra-rapid product.

  8. Exploration of satellite-derived data products for atmospheric turbulence studies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Griffith, DJ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available reasonable proxy in the absence of in-situ measurements. 3.2 ORNL DAAC The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) provides a global subsetting and time-series derivation for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer... (MODIS) data from the NASA Terra and Aqua satellite platforms. The products available for subsetting and time-series generation from the ORNL DAAC are given in Table 2. Moreover, this MODIS facility is available programmatically using the Simple Object...

  9. An estimation of tropospheric corrections using GPS and synoptic data: Improving Urmia Lake water level time series from Jason-2 and SARAL/AltiKa satellite altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arabsahebi, Reza; Voosoghi, Behzad; Tourian, Mohammad J.

    2018-05-01

    Tropospheric correction is one of the most important corrections in satellite altimetry measurements. Tropospheric wet and dry path delays have strong dependence on temperature, pressure and humidity. Tropospheric layer has particularly high variability over coastal regions due to humidity, wind and temperature gradients. Depending on the extent of water body and wind conditions over an inland water, Wet Tropospheric Correction (WTC) is within the ranges from a few centimeters to tens of centimeters. Therefore, an extra care is needed to estimate tropospheric corrections on the altimetric measurements over inland waters. This study assesses the role of tropospheric correction on the altimetric measurements over the Urmia Lake in Iran. For this purpose, four types of tropospheric corrections have been used: (i) microwave radiometer (MWR) observations, (ii) tropospheric corrections computed from meteorological models, (iii) GPS observations and (iv) synoptic station data. They have been applied to Jason-2 track no. 133 and SARAL/AltiKa track no. 741 and 356 corresponding to 117-153 and the 23-34 cycles, respectively. In addition, the corresponding measurements of PISTACH and PEACHI, include new retracking method and an innovative wet tropospheric correction, have also been used. Our results show that GPS observation leads to the most accurate tropospheric correction. The results obtained from the PISTACH and PEACHI projects confirm those obtained with the standard SGDR, i.e., the role of GPS in improving the tropospheric corrections. It is inferred that the MWR data from Jason-2 mission is appropriate for the tropospheric corrections, however the SARAL/AltiKa one is not proper because Jason-2 possesses an enhanced WTC near the coast. Furthermore, virtual stations are defined for assessment of the results in terms of time series of Water Level Height (WLH). The results show that GPS tropospheric corrections lead to the most accurate WLH estimation for the selected

  10. Time Series Econometrics for the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Bruce E.

    2017-01-01

    The field of econometrics largely started with time series analysis because many early datasets were time-series macroeconomic data. As the field developed, more cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets were collected, which today dominate the majority of academic empirical research. In nonacademic (private sector, central bank, and governmental)…

  11. Effectiveness of firefly algorithm based neural network in time series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effectiveness of firefly algorithm based neural network in time series forecasting. ... In the experiments, three well known time series were used to evaluate the performance. Results obtained were compared with ... Keywords: Time series, Artificial Neural Network, Firefly Algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Overfitting ...

  12. Prediction of GNSS satellite clocks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broederbauer, V.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis deals with the characterisation and prediction of GNSS-satellite-clocks. A prerequisite to develop powerful algorithms for the prediction of clock-corrections is the thorough study of the behaviour of the different clock-types of the satellites. In this context the predicted part of the IGU-clock-corrections provided by the Analysis Centers (ACs) of the IGS was compared to the IGS-Rapid-clock solutions to determine reasonable estimates of the quality of already existing well performing predictions. For the shortest investigated interval (three hours) all ACs obtain almost the same accuracy of 0,1 to 0,4 ns. For longer intervals the individual predictions results start to diverge. Thus, for a 12-hours- interval the differences range from nearly 10 ns (GFZ, CODE) until up to some 'tens of ns'. Based on the estimated clock corrections provided via the IGS Rapid products a simple quadratic polynomial turns out to be sufficient to describe the time series of Rubidium-clocks. On the other hand Cesium-clocks show a periodical behaviour (revolution period) with an amplitude of up to 6 ns. A clear correlation between these amplitudes and the Sun elevation angle above the orbital planes can be demonstrated. The variability of the amplitudes is supposed to be caused by temperature-variations affecting the oscillator. To account for this periodical behaviour a quadratic polynomial with an additional sinus-term was finally chosen as prediction model both for the Cesium as well as for the Rubidium clocks. The three polynomial-parameters as well as amplitude and phase shift of the periodic term are estimated within a least-square-adjustment by means of program GNSS-VC/static. Input-data are time series of the observed part of the IGU clock corrections. With the estimated parameters clock-corrections are predicted for various durations. The mean error of the prediction of Rubidium-clock-corrections for an interval of six hours reaches up to 1,5 ns. For the 12-hours

  13. Time Series Analysis of Insar Data: Methods and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanoglu, Batuhan; Sunar, Filiz; Wdowinski, Shimon; Cano-Cabral, Enrique

    2015-01-01

    Time series analysis of InSAR data has emerged as an important tool for monitoring and measuring the displacement of the Earth's surface. Changes in the Earth's surface can result from a wide range of phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, variations in ground water levels, and changes in wetland water levels. Time series analysis is applied to interferometric phase measurements, which wrap around when the observed motion is larger than one-half of the radar wavelength. Thus, the spatio-temporal ''unwrapping" of phase observations is necessary to obtain physically meaningful results. Several different algorithms have been developed for time series analysis of InSAR data to solve for this ambiguity. These algorithms may employ different models for time series analysis, but they all generate a first-order deformation rate, which can be compared to each other. However, there is no single algorithm that can provide optimal results in all cases. Since time series analyses of InSAR data are used in a variety of applications with different characteristics, each algorithm possesses inherently unique strengths and weaknesses. In this review article, following a brief overview of InSAR technology, we discuss several algorithms developed for time series analysis of InSAR data using an example set of results for measuring subsidence rates in Mexico City.

  14. Interpretation of a compositional time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolosana-Delgado, R.; van den Boogaart, K. G.

    2012-04-01

    Common methods for multivariate time series analysis use linear operations, from the definition of a time-lagged covariance/correlation to the prediction of new outcomes. However, when the time series response is a composition (a vector of positive components showing the relative importance of a set of parts in a total, like percentages and proportions), then linear operations are afflicted of several problems. For instance, it has been long recognised that (auto/cross-)correlations between raw percentages are spurious, more dependent on which other components are being considered than on any natural link between the components of interest. Also, a long-term forecast of a composition in models with a linear trend will ultimately predict negative components. In general terms, compositional data should not be treated in a raw scale, but after a log-ratio transformation (Aitchison, 1986: The statistical analysis of compositional data. Chapman and Hill). This is so because the information conveyed by a compositional data is relative, as stated in their definition. The principle of working in coordinates allows to apply any sort of multivariate analysis to a log-ratio transformed composition, as long as this transformation is invertible. This principle is of full application to time series analysis. We will discuss how results (both auto/cross-correlation functions and predictions) can be back-transformed, viewed and interpreted in a meaningful way. One view is to use the exhaustive set of all possible pairwise log-ratios, which allows to express the results into D(D - 1)/2 separate, interpretable sets of one-dimensional models showing the behaviour of each possible pairwise log-ratios. Another view is the interpretation of estimated coefficients or correlations back-transformed in terms of compositions. These two views are compatible and complementary. These issues are illustrated with time series of seasonal precipitation patterns at different rain gauges of the USA

  15. Assessing error sources for Landsat time series analysis for tropical test sites in Viet Nam and Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Michael; Verbesselt, Jan; Herold, Martin; Avitabile, Valerio

    2013-10-01

    Researchers who use remotely sensed data can spend half of their total effort analysing prior data. If this data preprocessing does not match the application, this time spent on data analysis can increase considerably and can lead to inaccuracies. Despite the existence of a number of methods for pre-processing Landsat time series, each method has shortcomings, particularly for mapping forest changes under varying illumination, data availability and atmospheric conditions. Based on the requirements of mapping forest changes as defined by the United Nations (UN) Reducing Emissions from Forest Degradation and Deforestation (REDD) program, the accurate reporting of the spatio-temporal properties of these changes is necessary. We compared the impact of three fundamentally different radiometric preprocessing techniques Moderate Resolution Atmospheric TRANsmission (MODTRAN), Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) and simple Dark Object Subtraction (DOS) on mapping forest changes using Landsat time series data. A modification of Breaks For Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) monitor was used to jointly map the spatial and temporal agreement of forest changes at test sites in Ethiopia and Viet Nam. The suitability of the pre-processing methods for the occurring forest change drivers was assessed using recently captured Ground Truth and high resolution data (1000 points). A method for creating robust generic forest maps used for the sampling design is presented. An assessment of error sources has been performed identifying haze as a major source for time series analysis commission error.

  16. A time-series analysis of flood disaster around Lena river using Landsat TM/ETM+

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakai, Toru; Hatta, Shigemi; Okumura, Makoto; Takeuchi, Wataru; Hiyama, Tetsuya; Inoue, Gen

    2010-05-01

    Landsat satellite has provided a continuous record of earth observation since 1972, gradually improving sensors (i.e. MSS, TM and ETM+). Already processed archives of Landsat image are now available free of charge from the internet. The Landsat image of 30 m spatial resolution with multiple spectral bands between 450 and 2350 nm is appropriate for detailed mapping of natural resource at wide geographical areas. However, one of the biggest concerns in the use of Landsat image is the uncertainty in the timing of acquisitions. Although detection of land cover change usually requires acquisitions before and after the change, the Landsat image is often unavailable because of the long-term intervals (16 days) and variation in atmosphere. Nearly cloud-free image is acquired at least once per year (total of 22 or 23 scenes per year). Therefore, it may be difficult to acquire appropriate images for monitoring natural disturbances caused at short-term intervals (e.g., flood, forest fire and hurricanes). Our objectives are: (1) to examine whether a time-series of Landsat image is available for monitoring a flood disaster, and (2) to evaluate the impact and timing of the flood disaster around Lena river in Siberia. A set of Landsat TM/ETM+ satellite images was used to enable acquisition of cloud-free image, although Landsat ETM+ images include failure of the Scan Line Corrector (SLC) from May 2003. The overlap area of a time series of 20 Landsat TM/ETM+ images (path 120-122, row 17) from April 2007 to August 2007 was clipped (approximately 33 km × 90 km), and the other area was excluded from the analyses. Image classification was performed on each image separately using an unsupervised ISODATA method, and each Landsat TM/ETM+ image was classified into three land cover types: (1) ice, (2) water, and (3) land. From three land cover types, the area of Lena river was estimated. The area of Lena river dramatically changed after spring breakup. The middle part of Lena river around

  17. On the characterization of vegetation recovery after fire disturbance using Fisher-Shannon analysis and SPOT/VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasaponara, Rosa; Lanorte, Antonio; Lovallo, Michele; Telesca, Luciano

    2015-04-01

    characterize vegetation recovery after fire disturbanceInternational Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 26 441-446 Lanorte A, M Danese, R Lasaponara, B Murgante 2014 Multiscale mapping of burn area and severity using multisensor satellite data and spatial autocorrelation analysis International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 20, 42-51 Tuia D, F Ratle, R Lasaponara, L Telesca, M Kanevski 2008 Scan statistics analysis of forest fire clusters Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation 13 (8), 1689-1694 Telesca L, R Lasaponara 2006 Pre and post fire behavioral trends revealed in satellite NDVI time series Geophysical Research Letters 33 (14) Lasaponara R 2005 Intercomparison of AVHRR based fire susceptibility indicators for the Mediterranean ecosystems of southern Italy International Journal of Remote Sensing 26 (5), 853-870

  18. Time series of GNSS-derived ionospheric maps to detect anomalies as possible precursors of high magnitude earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarella, M.; De Giglio, M.; Galeandro, A.; Mancini, F.

    2012-04-01

    The modification of some atmospheric physical properties prior to a high magnitude earthquake has been recently debated within the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere (LAI) Coupling model. Among this variety of phenomena the ionization of air at the higher level of the atmosphere, called ionosphere, is investigated in this work. Such a ionization occurrences could be caused by possible leaking of gases from earth crust and their presence was detected around the time of high magnitude earthquakes by several authors. However, the spatial scale and temporal domain over which such a disturbances come into evidence is still a controversial item. Even thought the ionospheric activity could be investigated by different methodologies (satellite or terrestrial measurements), we selected the production of ionospheric maps by the analysis of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Data) data as possible way to detect anomalies prior of a seismic event over a wide area around the epicentre. It is well known that, in the GNSS sciences, the ionospheric activity could be probed by the analysis of refraction phenomena occurred on the dual frequency signals along the satellite to receiver path. The analysis of refraction phenomena affecting data acquired by the GNSS permanent trackers is able to produce daily to hourly maps representing the spatial distribution of the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) as an index of the ionization degree in the upper atmosphere. The presence of large ionospheric anomalies could be therefore interpreted in the LAI Coupling model like a precursor signal of a strong earthquake, especially when the appearance of other different precursors (thermal anomalies and/or gas fluxes) could be detected. In this work, a six-month long series of ionospheric maps produced from GNSS data collected by a network of 49 GPS permanent stations distributed within an area around the city of L'Aquila (Abruzzi, Italy), where an earthquake (M = 6.3) occurred on April 6, 2009

  19. Capturing Structure Implicitly from Time-Series having Limited Data

    OpenAIRE

    Emaasit, Daniel; Johnson, Matthew

    2018-01-01

    Scientific fields such as insider-threat detection and highway-safety planning often lack sufficient amounts of time-series data to estimate statistical models for the purpose of scientific discovery. Moreover, the available limited data are quite noisy. This presents a major challenge when estimating time-series models that are robust to overfitting and have well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. Most of the current literature in these fields involve visualizing the time-series for noticeabl...

  20. Self-affinity in the dengue fever time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azevedo, S. M.; Saba, H.; Miranda, J. G. V.; Filho, A. S. Nascimento; Moret, M. A.

    2016-06-01

    Dengue is a complex public health problem that is common in tropical and subtropical regions. This disease has risen substantially in the last three decades, and the physical symptoms depict the self-affine behavior of the occurrences of reported dengue cases in Bahia, Brazil. This study uses detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to verify the scale behavior in a time series of dengue cases and to evaluate the long-range correlations that are characterized by the power law α exponent for different cities in Bahia, Brazil. The scaling exponent (α) presents different long-range correlations, i.e. uncorrelated, anti-persistent, persistent and diffusive behaviors. The long-range correlations highlight the complex behavior of the time series of this disease. The findings show that there are two distinct types of scale behavior. In the first behavior, the time series presents a persistent α exponent for a one-month period. For large periods, the time series signal approaches subdiffusive behavior. The hypothesis of the long-range correlations in the time series of the occurrences of reported dengue cases was validated. The observed self-affinity is useful as a forecasting tool for future periods through extrapolation of the α exponent behavior. This complex system has a higher predictability in a relatively short time (approximately one month), and it suggests a new tool in epidemiological control strategies. However, predictions for large periods using DFA are hidden by the subdiffusive behavior.

  1. 47 CFR 25.259 - Time sharing between NOAA meteorological satellite systems and non-voice, non-geostationary...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Time sharing between NOAA meteorological... SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Technical Standards § 25.259 Time sharing between NOAA meteorological satellite... Atmospheric Administration (“NOAA”) satellite systems. When calculating the protection areas for a NOAA...

  2. On the plurality of times: disunified time and the A-series | Nefdt ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Then, I attempt to show that disunified time is a problem for a semantics based on the A-series since A-truthmakers are hard to come by in a universe of temporally disconnected time-series. Finally, I provide a novel argument showing that presentists should be particularly fearful of such a universe. South African Journal of ...

  3. Time-series modeling of long-term weight self-monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helander, Elina; Pavel, Misha; Jimison, Holly; Korhonen, Ilkka

    2015-08-01

    Long-term self-monitoring of weight is beneficial for weight maintenance, especially after weight loss. Connected weight scales accumulate time series information over long term and hence enable time series analysis of the data. The analysis can reveal individual patterns, provide more sensitive detection of significant weight trends, and enable more accurate and timely prediction of weight outcomes. However, long term self-weighing data has several challenges which complicate the analysis. Especially, irregular sampling, missing data, and existence of periodic (e.g. diurnal and weekly) patterns are common. In this study, we apply time series modeling approach on daily weight time series from two individuals and describe information that can be extracted from this kind of data. We study the properties of weight time series data, missing data and its link to individuals behavior, periodic patterns and weight series segmentation. Being able to understand behavior through weight data and give relevant feedback is desired to lead to positive intervention on health behaviors.

  4. Time series prediction of apple scab using meteorological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A new prediction model for the early warning of apple scab is proposed in this study. The method is based on artificial intelligence and time series prediction. The infection period of apple scab was evaluated as the time series prediction model instead of summation of wetness duration. Also, the relations of different ...

  5. An Autonomous Satellite Time Synchronization System Using Remotely Disciplined VC-OCXOs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaobo Gu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available An autonomous remote clock control system is proposed to provide time synchronization and frequency syntonization for satellite to satellite or ground to satellite time transfer, with the system comprising on-board voltage controlled oven controlled crystal oscillators (VC-OCXOs that are disciplined to a remote master atomic clock or oscillator. The synchronization loop aims to provide autonomous operation over extended periods, be widely applicable to a variety of scenarios and robust. A new architecture comprising the use of frequency division duplex (FDD, synchronous time division (STDD duplex and code division multiple access (CDMA with a centralized topology is employed. This new design utilizes dual one-way ranging methods to precisely measure the clock error, adopts least square (LS methods to predict the clock error and employs a third-order phase lock loop (PLL to generate the voltage control signal. A general functional model for this system is proposed and the error sources and delays that affect the time synchronization are discussed. Related algorithms for estimating and correcting these errors are also proposed. The performance of the proposed system is simulated and guidance for selecting the clock is provided.

  6. Real time hardware-in-loop simulation of ESMO satellite attitude control system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rune Finnset

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies attitude control of the ESMO satellite using six reaction thrusters. Bang-bang control with dead-zone and Pulse-Width Modulation (PWM for the modulation of the on-time of the thrusters are treated. Closed loop hardware-in-loop simulations, using themicrocontroller unit (MCU Microchip PIC18F452 for implementation of attitude control and MatLab in a standard PC for simulating satellite dynamics, are carried out. Results for real time simulation are compared with autonomous simulations. The controller gives a satisfactory performance in the real time environment.

  7. Characterization of time series via Rényi complexity-entropy curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jauregui, M.; Zunino, L.; Lenzi, E. K.; Mendes, R. S.; Ribeiro, H. V.

    2018-05-01

    One of the most useful tools for distinguishing between chaotic and stochastic time series is the so-called complexity-entropy causality plane. This diagram involves two complexity measures: the Shannon entropy and the statistical complexity. Recently, this idea has been generalized by considering the Tsallis monoparametric generalization of the Shannon entropy, yielding complexity-entropy curves. These curves have proven to enhance the discrimination among different time series related to stochastic and chaotic processes of numerical and experimental nature. Here we further explore these complexity-entropy curves in the context of the Rényi entropy, which is another monoparametric generalization of the Shannon entropy. By combining the Rényi entropy with the proper generalization of the statistical complexity, we associate a parametric curve (the Rényi complexity-entropy curve) with a given time series. We explore this approach in a series of numerical and experimental applications, demonstrating the usefulness of this new technique for time series analysis. We show that the Rényi complexity-entropy curves enable the differentiation among time series of chaotic, stochastic, and periodic nature. In particular, time series of stochastic nature are associated with curves displaying positive curvature in a neighborhood of their initial points, whereas curves related to chaotic phenomena have a negative curvature; finally, periodic time series are represented by vertical straight lines.

  8. Detection of anthropogenic climate change in satellite records of ocean chlorophyll and productivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Henson

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on its global distribution comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of satellite-derived chlorophyll and productivity data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute climate change-driven trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in satellite ocean colour data to longer-term time series from three biogeochemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR. We find that detection of climate change-driven trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global climate change. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 years length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. In some regions, notably equatorial regions, detection times are predicted to be shorter (~20–30 years. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001–2100 suggests that, on average, the climate change-driven trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected.

  9. Quantifying Selection with Pool-Seq Time Series Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taus, Thomas; Futschik, Andreas; Schlötterer, Christian

    2017-11-01

    Allele frequency time series data constitute a powerful resource for unraveling mechanisms of adaptation, because the temporal dimension captures important information about evolutionary forces. In particular, Evolve and Resequence (E&R), the whole-genome sequencing of replicated experimentally evolving populations, is becoming increasingly popular. Based on computer simulations several studies proposed experimental parameters to optimize the identification of the selection targets. No such recommendations are available for the underlying parameters selection strength and dominance. Here, we introduce a highly accurate method to estimate selection parameters from replicated time series data, which is fast enough to be applied on a genome scale. Using this new method, we evaluate how experimental parameters can be optimized to obtain the most reliable estimates for selection parameters. We show that the effective population size (Ne) and the number of replicates have the largest impact. Because the number of time points and sequencing coverage had only a minor effect, we suggest that time series analysis is feasible without major increase in sequencing costs. We anticipate that time series analysis will become routine in E&R studies. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

  10. Transformation-cost time-series method for analyzing irregularly sampled data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozken, Ibrahim; Eroglu, Deniz; Stemler, Thomas; Marwan, Norbert; Bagci, G Baris; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-06-01

    Irregular sampling of data sets is one of the challenges often encountered in time-series analysis, since traditional methods cannot be applied and the frequently used interpolation approach can corrupt the data and bias the subsequence analysis. Here we present the TrAnsformation-Cost Time-Series (TACTS) method, which allows us to analyze irregularly sampled data sets without degenerating the quality of the data set. Instead of using interpolation we consider time-series segments and determine how close they are to each other by determining the cost needed to transform one segment into the following one. Using a limited set of operations-with associated costs-to transform the time series segments, we determine a new time series, that is our transformation-cost time series. This cost time series is regularly sampled and can be analyzed using standard methods. While our main interest is the analysis of paleoclimate data, we develop our method using numerical examples like the logistic map and the Rössler oscillator. The numerical data allows us to test the stability of our method against noise and for different irregular samplings. In addition we provide guidance on how to choose the associated costs based on the time series at hand. The usefulness of the TACTS method is demonstrated using speleothem data from the Secret Cave in Borneo that is a good proxy for paleoclimatic variability in the monsoon activity around the maritime continent.

  11. Transformation-cost time-series method for analyzing irregularly sampled data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozken, Ibrahim; Eroglu, Deniz; Stemler, Thomas; Marwan, Norbert; Bagci, G. Baris; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-06-01

    Irregular sampling of data sets is one of the challenges often encountered in time-series analysis, since traditional methods cannot be applied and the frequently used interpolation approach can corrupt the data and bias the subsequence analysis. Here we present the TrAnsformation-Cost Time-Series (TACTS) method, which allows us to analyze irregularly sampled data sets without degenerating the quality of the data set. Instead of using interpolation we consider time-series segments and determine how close they are to each other by determining the cost needed to transform one segment into the following one. Using a limited set of operations—with associated costs—to transform the time series segments, we determine a new time series, that is our transformation-cost time series. This cost time series is regularly sampled and can be analyzed using standard methods. While our main interest is the analysis of paleoclimate data, we develop our method using numerical examples like the logistic map and the Rössler oscillator. The numerical data allows us to test the stability of our method against noise and for different irregular samplings. In addition we provide guidance on how to choose the associated costs based on the time series at hand. The usefulness of the TACTS method is demonstrated using speleothem data from the Secret Cave in Borneo that is a good proxy for paleoclimatic variability in the monsoon activity around the maritime continent.

  12. A multidisciplinary database for geophysical time series management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montalto, P.; Aliotta, M.; Cassisi, C.; Prestifilippo, M.; Cannata, A.

    2013-12-01

    The variables collected by a sensor network constitute a heterogeneous data source that needs to be properly organized in order to be used in research and geophysical monitoring. With the time series term we refer to a set of observations of a given phenomenon acquired sequentially in time. When the time intervals are equally spaced one speaks of period or sampling frequency. Our work describes in detail a possible methodology for storage and management of time series using a specific data structure. We designed a framework, hereinafter called TSDSystem (Time Series Database System), in order to acquire time series from different data sources and standardize them within a relational database. The operation of standardization provides the ability to perform operations, such as query and visualization, of many measures synchronizing them using a common time scale. The proposed architecture follows a multiple layer paradigm (Loaders layer, Database layer and Business Logic layer). Each layer is specialized in performing particular operations for the reorganization and archiving of data from different sources such as ASCII, Excel, ODBC (Open DataBase Connectivity), file accessible from the Internet (web pages, XML). In particular, the loader layer performs a security check of the working status of each running software through an heartbeat system, in order to automate the discovery of acquisition issues and other warning conditions. Although our system has to manage huge amounts of data, performance is guaranteed by using a smart partitioning table strategy, that keeps balanced the percentage of data stored in each database table. TSDSystem also contains modules for the visualization of acquired data, that provide the possibility to query different time series on a specified time range, or follow the realtime signal acquisition, according to a data access policy from the users.

  13. Modeling financial time series with S-plus

    CERN Document Server

    Zivot, Eric

    2003-01-01

    The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department at the University of Washington, and is co-director of the nascent Professional Master's Program in Computational Finance He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the He...

  14. Statistical variability comparison in MODIS and AERONET derived aerosol optical depth over Indo-Gangetic Plains using time series modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soni, Kirti; Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Kapoor, Sangeeta; Kumar, Nishant

    2016-05-15

    A lot of studies in the literature of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) done by using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived data, but the accuracy of satellite data in comparison to ground data derived from ARrosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET) has been always questionable. So to overcome from this situation, comparative study of a comprehensive ground based and satellite data for the period of 2001-2012 is modeled. The time series model is used for the accurate prediction of AOD and statistical variability is compared to assess the performance of the model in both cases. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), stationary R-squared, R-squared, maximum absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized Bayesian information criterion (NBIC) and Ljung-Box methods are used to check the applicability and validity of the developed ARIMA models revealing significant precision in the model performance. It was found that, it is possible to predict the AOD by statistical modeling using time series obtained from past data of MODIS and AERONET as input data. Moreover, the result shows that MODIS data can be formed from AERONET data by adding 0.251627 ± 0.133589 and vice-versa by subtracting. From the forecast available for AODs for the next four years (2013-2017) by using the developed ARIMA model, it is concluded that the forecasted ground AOD has increased trend. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Application of Time Series Analysis in Determination of Lag Time in Jahanbin Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seied Yahya Mirzaee

    2005-11-01

        One of the important issues that have significant role in study of hydrology of basin is determination of lag time. Lag time has significant role in hydrological studies. Quantity of rainfall related lag time depends on several factors, such as permeability, vegetation cover, catchments slope, rainfall intensity, storm duration and type of rain. Determination of lag time is important parameter in many projects such as dam design and also water resource studies. Lag time of basin could be calculated using various methods. One of these methods is time series analysis of spectral density. The analysis is based on fouries series. The time series is approximated with Sinuous and Cosines functions. In this method harmonically significant quantities with individual frequencies are presented. Spectral density under multiple time series could be used to obtain basin lag time for annual runoff and short-term rainfall fluctuation. A long lag time could be due to snowmelt as well as melting ice due to rainfalls in freezing days. In this research the lag time of Jahanbin basin has been determined using spectral density method. The catchments is subjected to both rainfall and snowfall. For short term rainfall fluctuation with a return period  2, 3, 4 months, the lag times were found 0.18, 0.5 and 0.083 month, respectively.

  16. Modeling Time Series Data for Supervised Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baydogan, Mustafa Gokce

    2012-01-01

    Temporal data are increasingly prevalent and important in analytics. Time series (TS) data are chronological sequences of observations and an important class of temporal data. Fields such as medicine, finance, learning science and multimedia naturally generate TS data. Each series provide a high-dimensional data vector that challenges the learning…

  17. Developing a complex independent component analysis technique to extract non-stationary patterns from geophysical time-series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forootan, Ehsan; Kusche, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Geodetic/geophysical observations, such as the time series of global terrestrial water storage change or sea level and temperature change, represent samples of physical processes and therefore contain information about complex physical interactionswith many inherent time scales. Extracting relevant information from these samples, for example quantifying the seasonality of a physical process or its variability due to large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions, is not possible by rendering simple time series approaches. In the last decades, decomposition techniques have found increasing interest for extracting patterns from geophysical observations. Traditionally, principal component analysis (PCA) and more recently independent component analysis (ICA) are common techniques to extract statistical orthogonal (uncorrelated) and independent modes that represent the maximum variance of observations, respectively. PCA and ICA can be classified as stationary signal decomposition techniques since they are based on decomposing the auto-covariance matrix or diagonalizing higher (than two)-order statistical tensors from centered time series. However, the stationary assumption is obviously not justifiable for many geophysical and climate variables even after removing cyclic components e.g., the seasonal cycles. In this paper, we present a new decomposition method, the complex independent component analysis (CICA, Forootan, PhD-2014), which can be applied to extract to non-stationary (changing in space and time) patterns from geophysical time series. Here, CICA is derived as an extension of real-valued ICA (Forootan and Kusche, JoG-2012), where we (i) define a new complex data set using a Hilbert transformation. The complex time series contain the observed values in their real part, and the temporal rate of variability in their imaginary part. (ii) An ICA algorithm based on diagonalization of fourth-order cumulants is then applied to decompose the new complex data set in (i

  18. Empirical method to measure stochasticity and multifractality in nonlinear time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Chih-Hao; Chang, Chia-Seng; Li, Sai-Ping

    2013-12-01

    An empirical algorithm is used here to study the stochastic and multifractal nature of nonlinear time series. A parameter can be defined to quantitatively measure the deviation of the time series from a Wiener process so that the stochasticity of different time series can be compared. The local volatility of the time series under study can be constructed using this algorithm, and the multifractal structure of the time series can be analyzed by using this local volatility. As an example, we employ this method to analyze financial time series from different stock markets. The result shows that while developed markets evolve very much like an Ito process, the emergent markets are far from efficient. Differences about the multifractal structures and leverage effects between developed and emergent markets are discussed. The algorithm used here can be applied in a similar fashion to study time series of other complex systems.

  19. Validation of satellite derived LHF using coare_3.0 scheme and time series data over north-east Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Muraleedharan, P.M.; Pankajakshan, T.; Sathe, P.V.

    to the scientific community as it call for near perfect observational platforms and sensors to Page 1 of 10Gayana (Concepción) - VALIDATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED LHF USING C... 8/11/2006http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717...>VALIDATION OF SATELLITE DERIVED LHF USING C... 8/11/2006http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0717-65382004000300019&lng=... Day and night passes of SSMI (wind speed and columnar water vapor) and TMI (sea surface temperature) data for the period July...

  20. Classification of Small-Scale Eucalyptus Plantations Based on NDVI Time Series Obtained from Multiple High-Resolution Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hailang Qiao

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Eucalyptus, a short-rotation plantation, has been expanding rapidly in southeast China in recent years owing to its short growth cycle and high yield of wood. Effective identification of eucalyptus, therefore, is important for monitoring land use changes and investigating environmental quality. For this article, we used remote sensing images over 15 years (one per year with a 30-m spatial resolution, including Landsat 5 thematic mapper images, Landsat 7-enhanced thematic mapper images, and HJ 1A/1B images. These data were used to construct a 15-year Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time series for several cities in Guangdong Province, China. Eucalyptus reference NDVI time series sub-sequences were acquired, including one-year-long and two-year-long growing periods, using invested eucalyptus samples in the study region. In order to compensate for the discontinuity of the NDVI time series that is a consequence of the relatively coarse temporal resolution, we developed an inverted triangle area methodology. Using this methodology, the images were classified on the basis of the matching degree of the NDVI time series and two reference NDVI time series sub-sequences during the growing period of the eucalyptus rotations. Three additional methodologies (Bounding Envelope, City Block, and Standardized Euclidian Distance were also tested and used as a comparison group. Threshold coefficients for the algorithms were adjusted using commission–omission error criteria. The results show that the triangle area methodology out-performed the other methodologies in classifying eucalyptus plantations. Threshold coefficients and an optimal discriminant function were determined using a mosaic photograph that had been taken by an unmanned aerial vehicle platform. Good stability was found as we performed further validation using multiple-year data from the high-resolution Gaofen Satellite 1 (GF-1 observations of larger regions. Eucalyptus planting dates

  1. Clinical time series prediction: Toward a hierarchical dynamical system framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

    2015-09-01

    Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patients in the training set, and then using it to predict future time series values for the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive performance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Clinical time series prediction: towards a hierarchical dynamical system framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos

    2014-01-01

    Objective Developing machine learning and data mining algorithms for building temporal models of clinical time series is important for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, effect of various patient management interventions and clinical decision making. In this work, we propose and develop a novel hierarchical framework for modeling clinical time series data of varied length and with irregularly sampled observations. Materials and methods Our hierarchical dynamical system framework for modeling clinical time series combines advantages of the two temporal modeling approaches: the linear dynamical system and the Gaussian process. We model the irregularly sampled clinical time series by using multiple Gaussian process sequences in the lower level of our hierarchical framework and capture the transitions between Gaussian processes by utilizing the linear dynamical system. The experiments are conducted on the complete blood count (CBC) panel data of 1000 post-surgical cardiac patients during their hospitalization. Our framework is evaluated and compared to multiple baseline approaches in terms of the mean absolute prediction error and the absolute percentage error. Results We tested our framework by first learning the time series model from data for the patient in the training set, and then applying the model in order to predict future time series values on the patients in the test set. We show that our model outperforms multiple existing models in terms of its predictive accuracy. Our method achieved a 3.13% average prediction accuracy improvement on ten CBC lab time series when it was compared against the best performing baseline. A 5.25% average accuracy improvement was observed when only short-term predictions were considered. Conclusion A new hierarchical dynamical system framework that lets us model irregularly sampled time series data is a promising new direction for modeling clinical time series and for improving their predictive

  3. Turbulencelike Behavior of Seismic Time Series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manshour, P.; Saberi, S.; Sahimi, Muhammad; Peinke, J.; Pacheco, Amalio F.; Rahimi Tabar, M. Reza

    2009-01-01

    We report on a stochastic analysis of Earth's vertical velocity time series by using methods originally developed for complex hierarchical systems and, in particular, for turbulent flows. Analysis of the fluctuations of the detrended increments of the series reveals a pronounced transition in their probability density function from Gaussian to non-Gaussian. The transition occurs 5-10 hours prior to a moderate or large earthquake, hence representing a new and reliable precursor for detecting such earthquakes

  4. Characterizing time series: when Granger causality triggers complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Tian; Cui, Yindong; Lin, Wei; Kurths, Jürgen; Liu, Chong

    2012-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to characterize time series with noise perturbations in both the time and frequency domains by combining Granger causality and complex networks. We construct directed and weighted complex networks from time series and use representative network measures to describe their physical and topological properties. Through analyzing the typical dynamical behaviors of some physical models and the MIT-BIHMassachusetts Institute of Technology-Beth Israel Hospital. human electrocardiogram data sets, we show that the proposed approach is able to capture and characterize various dynamics and has much potential for analyzing real-world time series of rather short length.

  5. Characterizing time series: when Granger causality triggers complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge Tian; Cui Yindong; Lin Wei; Liu Chong; Kurths, Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a new approach to characterize time series with noise perturbations in both the time and frequency domains by combining Granger causality and complex networks. We construct directed and weighted complex networks from time series and use representative network measures to describe their physical and topological properties. Through analyzing the typical dynamical behaviors of some physical models and the MIT-BIH human electrocardiogram data sets, we show that the proposed approach is able to capture and characterize various dynamics and has much potential for analyzing real-world time series of rather short length. (paper)

  6. A spatiotemporal analysis of the relationship between near-surface air temperature and satellite land surface temperatures using 17 years of data from the ATSR series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Elizabeth J.; Ghent, Darren J.; Bulgin, Claire E.; Remedios, John J.

    2017-09-01

    The relationship between satellite land surface temperature (LST) and ground-based observations of 2 m air temperature (T2m) is characterized in space and time using >17 years of data. The analysis uses a new monthly LST climate data record (CDR) based on the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer series, which has been produced within the European Space Agency GlobTemperature project (http://www.globtemperature.info/). Global LST-T2m differences are analyzed with respect to location, land cover, vegetation fraction, and elevation, all of which are found to be important influencing factors. LSTnight ( 10 P.M. local solar time, clear-sky only) is found to be closely coupled with minimum T2m (Tmin, all-sky) and the two temperatures generally consistent to within ±5°C (global median LSTnight-Tmin = 1.8°C, interquartile range = 3.8°C). The LSTday ( 10 A.M. local solar time, clear-sky only)-maximum T2m (Tmax, all-sky) variability is higher (global median LSTday-Tmax = -0.1°C, interquartile range = 8.1°C) because LST is strongly influenced by insolation and surface regime. Correlations for both temperature pairs are typically >0.9 outside of the tropics. The monthly global and regional anomaly time series of LST and T2m—which are completely independent data sets—compare remarkably well. The correlation between the data sets is 0.9 for the globe with 90% of the CDR anomalies falling within the T2m 95% confidence limits. The results presented in this study present a justification for increasing use of satellite LST data in climate and weather science, both as an independent variable, and to augment T2m data acquired at meteorological stations.

  7. Multivariate time series analysis with R and financial applications

    CERN Document Server

    Tsay, Ruey S

    2013-01-01

    Since the publication of his first book, Analysis of Financial Time Series, Ruey Tsay has become one of the most influential and prominent experts on the topic of time series. Different from the traditional and oftentimes complex approach to multivariate (MV) time series, this sequel book emphasizes structural specification, which results in simplified parsimonious VARMA modeling and, hence, eases comprehension. Through a fundamental balance between theory and applications, the book supplies readers with an accessible approach to financial econometric models and their applications to real-worl

  8. Estimation of daily maximum and minimum air temperatures in urban landscapes using MODIS time series satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, Cheolhee; Im, Jungho; Park, Seonyoung; Quackenbush, Lindi J.

    2018-03-01

    Urban air temperature is considered a significant variable for a variety of urban issues, and analyzing the spatial patterns of air temperature is important for urban planning and management. However, insufficient weather stations limit accurate spatial representation of temperature within a heterogeneous city. This study used a random forest machine learning approach to estimate daily maximum and minimum air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) for two megacities with different climate characteristics: Los Angeles, USA, and Seoul, South Korea. This study used eight time-series land surface temperature (LST) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), with seven auxiliary variables: elevation, solar radiation, normalized difference vegetation index, latitude, longitude, aspect, and the percentage of impervious area. We found different relationships between the eight time-series LSTs with Tmax/Tmin for the two cities, and designed eight schemes with different input LST variables. The schemes were evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) from 10-fold cross-validation. The best schemes produced R2 of 0.850 and 0.777 and RMSE of 1.7 °C and 1.2 °C for Tmax and Tmin in Los Angeles, and R2 of 0.728 and 0.767 and RMSE of 1.1 °C and 1.2 °C for Tmax and Tmin in Seoul, respectively. LSTs obtained the day before were crucial for estimating daily urban air temperature. Estimated air temperature patterns showed that Tmax was highly dependent on the geographic factors (e.g., sea breeze, mountains) of the two cities, while Tmin showed marginally distinct temperature differences between built-up and vegetated areas in the two cities.

  9. Measurements of spatial population synchrony: influence of time series transformations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevalier, Mathieu; Laffaille, Pascal; Ferdy, Jean-Baptiste; Grenouillet, Gaël

    2015-09-01

    Two mechanisms have been proposed to explain spatial population synchrony: dispersal among populations, and the spatial correlation of density-independent factors (the "Moran effect"). To identify which of these two mechanisms is driving spatial population synchrony, time series transformations (TSTs) of abundance data have been used to remove the signature of one mechanism, and highlight the effect of the other. However, several issues with TSTs remain, and to date no consensus has emerged about how population time series should be handled in synchrony studies. Here, by using 3131 time series involving 34 fish species found in French rivers, we computed several metrics commonly used in synchrony studies to determine whether a large-scale climatic factor (temperature) influenced fish population dynamics at the regional scale, and to test the effect of three commonly used TSTs (detrending, prewhitening and a combination of both) on these metrics. We also tested whether the influence of TSTs on time series and population synchrony levels was related to the features of the time series using both empirical and simulated time series. For several species, and regardless of the TST used, we evidenced a Moran effect on freshwater fish populations. However, these results were globally biased downward by TSTs which reduced our ability to detect significant signals. Depending on the species and the features of the time series, we found that TSTs could lead to contradictory results, regardless of the metric considered. Finally, we suggest guidelines on how population time series should be processed in synchrony studies.

  10. Stochastic time series analysis of hydrology data for water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathish, S.; Khadar Babu, S. K.

    2017-11-01

    The prediction to current publication of stochastic time series analysis in hydrology and seasonal stage. The different statistical tests for predicting the hydrology time series on Thomas-Fiering model. The hydrology time series of flood flow have accept a great deal of consideration worldwide. The concentration of stochastic process areas of time series analysis method are expanding with develop concerns about seasonal periods and global warming. The recent trend by the researchers for testing seasonal periods in the hydrologic flowseries using stochastic process on Thomas-Fiering model. The present article proposed to predict the seasonal periods in hydrology using Thomas-Fiering model.

  11. Robust Automated Image Co-Registration of Optical Multi-Sensor Time Series Data: Database Generation for Multi-Temporal Landslide Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Behling

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Reliable multi-temporal landslide detection over longer periods of time requires multi-sensor time series data characterized by high internal geometric stability, as well as high relative and absolute accuracy. For this purpose, a new methodology for fully automated co-registration has been developed allowing efficient and robust spatial alignment of standard orthorectified data products originating from a multitude of optical satellite remote sensing data of varying spatial resolution. Correlation-based co-registration uses world-wide available terrain corrected Landsat Level 1T time series data as the spatial reference, ensuring global applicability. The developed approach has been applied to a multi-sensor time series of 592 remote sensing datasets covering an approximately 12,000 km2 area in Southern Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia strongly affected by landslides. The database contains images acquired during the last 26 years by Landsat (ETM, ASTER, SPOT and RapidEye sensors. Analysis of the spatial shifts obtained from co-registration has revealed sensor-specific alignments ranging between 5 m and more than 400 m. Overall accuracy assessment of these alignments has resulted in a high relative image-to-image accuracy of 17 m (RMSE and a high absolute accuracy of 23 m (RMSE for the whole co-registered database, making it suitable for multi-temporal landslide detection at a regional scale in Southern Kyrgyzstan.

  12. Assessing Sahelian vegetation and stress from seasonal time series of polar orbiting and geostationary satellite imagery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jørgen Lundegaard

    that short term variations in anomalies from seasonally detrended time series of indices could carry information on vegetation stress was examined and confirmed. However, it was not found sufficiently robust on pixel level to be implemented for monitoring vegetation water stress on a per-pixel basis...... provide good sensitivity to canopy water content, which can make vegetation stress detection possible. Furthermore, the high frequency observations in the optical spectrum now available from geostationary instruments have the potential for detection of changes in vegetation related surface properties...... on short timescales, which are challenging from polar orbiting instruments. Geostationary NDVI and the NIR and SWIR based Shortwave Infrared Water Stress Index (SIWSI) indices are compared with extensive field data from the Dahra site, supplemented by data from the Agoufou and Demokeya sites. The indices...

  13. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  14. Nonlinear time series analysis of the human electrocardiogram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perc, Matjaz

    2005-01-01

    We analyse the human electrocardiogram with simple nonlinear time series analysis methods that are appropriate for graduate as well as undergraduate courses. In particular, attention is devoted to the notions of determinism and stationarity in physiological data. We emphasize that methods of nonlinear time series analysis can be successfully applied only if the studied data set originates from a deterministic stationary system. After positively establishing the presence of determinism and stationarity in the studied electrocardiogram, we calculate the maximal Lyapunov exponent, thus providing interesting insights into the dynamics of the human heart. Moreover, to facilitate interest and enable the integration of nonlinear time series analysis methods into the curriculum at an early stage of the educational process, we also provide user-friendly programs for each implemented method

  15. Comparison of two-way satellite time transfer and GPS common-view time transfer between OCA and TUG

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchner, Dieter; Thyr, U.; Ressler, H.; Robnik, R.; Grudler, P.; Baumont, Francoise S.; Veillet, Christian; Lewandowski, Wlodzimierz W.; Hanson, W.; Clements, A.

    1992-01-01

    For about one year the time scales UTC(OCA) and UTC(TUG) were compared by means of GPS and two-way satellite time transfer. At the end of the experiment both links were independently 'calibrated' by measuring the differential delays of the GPS receivers and of the satellite earth stations by transportation of a GPS receiver and of one of the satellite terminals. The results obtained by both methods differ by about 3 ns, but reveal a seasonal variation of about 8 ns peak-to-peak which is likely the result of a temperature-dependence of the delays of the GPS receivers used. For the comparison of both methods the stabilities of the timescales are of great importance. Unfortunately, during the last three months of the experiment a less stable clock had to be used for the generation of UTC(TUG).

  16. Multichannel biomedical time series clustering via hierarchical probabilistic latent semantic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jin; Sun, Xiangping; Nahavandi, Saeid; Kouzani, Abbas; Wu, Yuchuan; She, Mary

    2014-11-01

    Biomedical time series clustering that automatically groups a collection of time series according to their internal similarity is of importance for medical record management and inspection such as bio-signals archiving and retrieval. In this paper, a novel framework that automatically groups a set of unlabelled multichannel biomedical time series according to their internal structural similarity is proposed. Specifically, we treat a multichannel biomedical time series as a document and extract local segments from the time series as words. We extend a topic model, i.e., the Hierarchical probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (H-pLSA), which was originally developed for visual motion analysis to cluster a set of unlabelled multichannel time series. The H-pLSA models each channel of the multichannel time series using a local pLSA in the first layer. The topics learned in the local pLSA are then fed to a global pLSA in the second layer to discover the categories of multichannel time series. Experiments on a dataset extracted from multichannel Electrocardiography (ECG) signals demonstrate that the proposed method performs better than previous state-of-the-art approaches and is relatively robust to the variations of parameters including length of local segments and dictionary size. Although the experimental evaluation used the multichannel ECG signals in a biometric scenario, the proposed algorithm is a universal framework for multichannel biomedical time series clustering according to their structural similarity, which has many applications in biomedical time series management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Hidden Markov Models for Time Series An Introduction Using R

    CERN Document Server

    Zucchini, Walter

    2009-01-01

    Illustrates the flexibility of HMMs as general-purpose models for time series data. This work presents an overview of HMMs for analyzing time series data, from continuous-valued, circular, and multivariate series to binary data, bounded and unbounded counts and categorical observations.

  18. Constructing ordinal partition transition networks from multivariate time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiayang; Zhou, Jie; Tang, Ming; Guo, Heng; Small, Michael; Zou, Yong

    2017-08-10

    A growing number of algorithms have been proposed to map a scalar time series into ordinal partition transition networks. However, most observable phenomena in the empirical sciences are of a multivariate nature. We construct ordinal partition transition networks for multivariate time series. This approach yields weighted directed networks representing the pattern transition properties of time series in velocity space, which hence provides dynamic insights of the underling system. Furthermore, we propose a measure of entropy to characterize ordinal partition transition dynamics, which is sensitive to capturing the possible local geometric changes of phase space trajectories. We demonstrate the applicability of pattern transition networks to capture phase coherence to non-coherence transitions, and to characterize paths to phase synchronizations. Therefore, we conclude that the ordinal partition transition network approach provides complementary insight to the traditional symbolic analysis of nonlinear multivariate time series.

  19. Permutation entropy of finite-length white-noise time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, Douglas J; Kane, Deb M

    2016-08-01

    Permutation entropy (PE) is commonly used to discriminate complex structure from white noise in a time series. While the PE of white noise is well understood in the long time-series limit, analysis in the general case is currently lacking. Here the expectation value and variance of white-noise PE are derived as functions of the number of ordinal pattern trials, N, and the embedding dimension, D. It is demonstrated that the probability distribution of the white-noise PE converges to a χ^{2} distribution with D!-1 degrees of freedom as N becomes large. It is further demonstrated that the PE variance for an arbitrary time series can be estimated as the variance of a related metric, the Kullback-Leibler entropy (KLE), allowing the qualitative N≫D! condition to be recast as a quantitative estimate of the N required to achieve a desired PE calculation precision. Application of this theory to statistical inference is demonstrated in the case of an experimentally obtained noise series, where the probability of obtaining the observed PE value was calculated assuming a white-noise time series. Standard statistical inference can be used to draw conclusions whether the white-noise null hypothesis can be accepted or rejected. This methodology can be applied to other null hypotheses, such as discriminating whether two time series are generated from different complex system states.

  20. Multiresolution analysis of Bursa Malaysia KLCI time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Dghais, Amel Abdoullah Ahmed

    2017-05-01

    In general, a time series is simply a sequence of numbers collected at regular intervals over a period. Financial time series data processing is concerned with the theory and practice of processing asset price over time, such as currency, commodity data, and stock market data. The primary aim of this study is to understand the fundamental characteristics of selected financial time series by using the time as well as the frequency domain analysis. After that prediction can be executed for the desired system for in sample forecasting. In this study, multiresolution analysis which the assist of discrete wavelet transforms (DWT) and maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) will be used to pinpoint special characteristics of Bursa Malaysia KLCI (Kuala Lumpur Composite Index) daily closing prices and return values. In addition, further case study discussions include the modeling of Bursa Malaysia KLCI using linear ARIMA with wavelets to address how multiresolution approach improves fitting and forecasting results.

  1. Modelling bursty time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vajna, Szabolcs; Kertész, János; Tóth, Bálint

    2013-01-01

    Many human-related activities show power-law decaying interevent time distribution with exponents usually varying between 1 and 2. We study a simple task-queuing model, which produces bursty time series due to the non-trivial dynamics of the task list. The model is characterized by a priority distribution as an input parameter, which describes the choice procedure from the list. We give exact results on the asymptotic behaviour of the model and we show that the interevent time distribution is power-law decaying for any kind of input distributions that remain normalizable in the infinite list limit, with exponents tunable between 1 and 2. The model satisfies a scaling law between the exponents of interevent time distribution (β) and autocorrelation function (α): α + β = 2. This law is general for renewal processes with power-law decaying interevent time distribution. We conclude that slowly decaying autocorrelation function indicates long-range dependence only if the scaling law is violated. (paper)

  2. Schedule Optimization of Imaging Missions for Multiple Satellites and Ground Stations Using Genetic Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Junghyun; Kim, Heewon; Chung, Hyun; Kim, Haedong; Choi, Sujin; Jung, Okchul; Chung, Daewon; Ko, Kwanghee

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, we propose a method that uses a genetic algorithm for the dynamic schedule optimization of imaging missions for multiple satellites and ground systems. In particular, the visibility conflicts of communication and mission operation using satellite resources (electric power and onboard memory) are integrated in sequence. Resource consumption and restoration are considered in the optimization process. Image acquisition is an essential part of satellite missions and is performed via a series of subtasks such as command uplink, image capturing, image storing, and image downlink. An objective function for optimization is designed to maximize the usability by considering the following components: user-assigned priority, resource consumption, and image-acquisition time. For the simulation, a series of hypothetical imaging missions are allocated to a multi-satellite control system comprising five satellites and three ground stations having S- and X-band antennas. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed method, simulations are performed via three operation modes: general, commercial, and tactical.

  3. Timing calibration and spectral cleaning of LOFAR time series data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corstanje, A.; Buitink, S.; Enriquez, J. E.; Falcke, H.; Horandel, J. R.; Krause, M.; Nelles, A.; Rachen, J. P.; Schellart, P.; Scholten, O.; ter Veen, S.; Thoudam, S.; Trinh, T. N. G.

    We describe a method for spectral cleaning and timing calibration of short time series data of the voltage in individual radio interferometer receivers. It makes use of phase differences in fast Fourier transform (FFT) spectra across antenna pairs. For strong, localized terrestrial sources these are

  4. Time series momentum and contrarian effects in the Chinese stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Huai-Long; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2017-10-01

    This paper concentrates on the time series momentum or contrarian effects in the Chinese stock market. We evaluate the performance of the time series momentum strategy applied to major stock indices in mainland China and explore the relation between the performance of time series momentum strategies and some firm-specific characteristics. Our findings indicate that there is a time series momentum effect in the short run and a contrarian effect in the long run in the Chinese stock market. The performances of the time series momentum and contrarian strategies are highly dependent on the look-back and holding periods and firm-specific characteristics.

  5. Characterizing interdependencies of multiple time series theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Hosoya, Yuzo; Takimoto, Taro; Kinoshita, Ryo

    2017-01-01

    This book introduces academic researchers and professionals to the basic concepts and methods for characterizing interdependencies of multiple time series in the frequency domain. Detecting causal directions between a pair of time series and the extent of their effects, as well as testing the non existence of a feedback relation between them, have constituted major focal points in multiple time series analysis since Granger introduced the celebrated definition of causality in view of prediction improvement. Causality analysis has since been widely applied in many disciplines. Although most analyses are conducted from the perspective of the time domain, a frequency domain method introduced in this book sheds new light on another aspect that disentangles the interdependencies between multiple time series in terms of long-term or short-term effects, quantitatively characterizing them. The frequency domain method includes the Granger noncausality test as a special case. Chapters 2 and 3 of the book introduce an i...

  6. Time assignment system and its performance aboard the Hitomi satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terada, Yukikatsu; Yamaguchi, Sunao; Sugimoto, Shigenobu; Inoue, Taku; Nakaya, Souhei; Murakami, Maika; Yabe, Seiya; Oshimizu, Kenya; Ogawa, Mina; Dotani, Tadayasu; Ishisaki, Yoshitaka; Mizushima, Kazuyo; Kominato, Takashi; Mine, Hiroaki; Hihara, Hiroki; Iwase, Kaori; Kouzu, Tomomi; Tashiro, Makoto S.; Natsukari, Chikara; Ozaki, Masanobu; Kokubun, Motohide; Takahashi, Tadayuki; Kawakami, Satoko; Kasahara, Masaru; Kumagai, Susumu; Angelini, Lorella; Witthoeft, Michael

    2018-01-01

    Fast timing capability in x-ray observation of astrophysical objects is one of the key properties for the ASTRO-H (Hitomi) mission. Absolute timing accuracies of 350 or 35 μs are required to achieve nominal scientific goals or to study fast variabilities of specific sources. The satellite carries a GPS receiver to obtain accurate time information, which is distributed from the central onboard computer through the large and complex SpaceWire network. The details of the time system on the hardware and software design are described. In the distribution of the time information, the propagation delays and jitters affect the timing accuracy. Six other items identified within the timing system will also contribute to absolute time error. These error items have been measured and checked on ground to ensure the time error budgets meet the mission requirements. The overall timing performance in combination with hardware performance, software algorithm, and the orbital determination accuracies, etc. under nominal conditions satisfies the mission requirements of 35 μs. This work demonstrates key points for space-use instruments in hardware and software designs and calibration measurements for fine timing accuracy on the order of microseconds for midsized satellites using the SpaceWire (IEEE1355) network.

  7. A perturbative approach for enhancing the performance of time series forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Mattos Neto, Paulo S G; Ferreira, Tiago A E; Lima, Aranildo R; Vasconcelos, Germano C; Cavalcanti, George D C

    2017-04-01

    This paper proposes a method to perform time series prediction based on perturbation theory. The approach is based on continuously adjusting an initial forecasting model to asymptotically approximate a desired time series model. First, a predictive model generates an initial forecasting for a time series. Second, a residual time series is calculated as the difference between the original time series and the initial forecasting. If that residual series is not white noise, then it can be used to improve the accuracy of the initial model and a new predictive model is adjusted using residual series. The whole process is repeated until convergence or the residual series becomes white noise. The output of the method is then given by summing up the outputs of all trained predictive models in a perturbative sense. To test the method, an experimental investigation was conducted on six real world time series. A comparison was made with six other methods experimented and ten other results found in the literature. Results show that not only the performance of the initial model is significantly improved but also the proposed method outperforms the other results previously published. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Drunk driving detection based on classification of multivariate time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhenlong; Jin, Xue; Zhao, Xiaohua

    2015-09-01

    This paper addresses the problem of detecting drunk driving based on classification of multivariate time series. First, driving performance measures were collected from a test in a driving simulator located in the Traffic Research Center, Beijing University of Technology. Lateral position and steering angle were used to detect drunk driving. Second, multivariate time series analysis was performed to extract the features. A piecewise linear representation was used to represent multivariate time series. A bottom-up algorithm was then employed to separate multivariate time series. The slope and time interval of each segment were extracted as the features for classification. Third, a support vector machine classifier was used to classify driver's state into two classes (normal or drunk) according to the extracted features. The proposed approach achieved an accuracy of 80.0%. Drunk driving detection based on the analysis of multivariate time series is feasible and effective. The approach has implications for drunk driving detection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  9. Evaluation of scaling invariance embedded in short time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Pan

    Full Text Available Scaling invariance of time series has been making great contributions in diverse research fields. But how to evaluate scaling exponent from a real-world series is still an open problem. Finite length of time series may induce unacceptable fluctuation and bias to statistical quantities and consequent invalidation of currently used standard methods. In this paper a new concept called correlation-dependent balanced estimation of diffusion entropy is developed to evaluate scale-invariance in very short time series with length ~10(2. Calculations with specified Hurst exponent values of 0.2,0.3,...,0.9 show that by using the standard central moving average de-trending procedure this method can evaluate the scaling exponents for short time series with ignorable bias (≤0.03 and sharp confidential interval (standard deviation ≤0.05. Considering the stride series from ten volunteers along an approximate oval path of a specified length, we observe that though the averages and deviations of scaling exponents are close, their evolutionary behaviors display rich patterns. It has potential use in analyzing physiological signals, detecting early warning signals, and so on. As an emphasis, the our core contribution is that by means of the proposed method one can estimate precisely shannon entropy from limited records.

  10. Evaluation of scaling invariance embedded in short time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xue; Hou, Lei; Stephen, Mutua; Yang, Huijie; Zhu, Chenping

    2014-01-01

    Scaling invariance of time series has been making great contributions in diverse research fields. But how to evaluate scaling exponent from a real-world series is still an open problem. Finite length of time series may induce unacceptable fluctuation and bias to statistical quantities and consequent invalidation of currently used standard methods. In this paper a new concept called correlation-dependent balanced estimation of diffusion entropy is developed to evaluate scale-invariance in very short time series with length ~10(2). Calculations with specified Hurst exponent values of 0.2,0.3,...,0.9 show that by using the standard central moving average de-trending procedure this method can evaluate the scaling exponents for short time series with ignorable bias (≤0.03) and sharp confidential interval (standard deviation ≤0.05). Considering the stride series from ten volunteers along an approximate oval path of a specified length, we observe that though the averages and deviations of scaling exponents are close, their evolutionary behaviors display rich patterns. It has potential use in analyzing physiological signals, detecting early warning signals, and so on. As an emphasis, the our core contribution is that by means of the proposed method one can estimate precisely shannon entropy from limited records.

  11. Modeling Non-Gaussian Time Series with Nonparametric Bayesian Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhiguang; MacEachern, Steven; Xu, Xinyi

    2015-02-01

    We present a class of Bayesian copula models whose major components are the marginal (limiting) distribution of a stationary time series and the internal dynamics of the series. We argue that these are the two features with which an analyst is typically most familiar, and hence that these are natural components with which to work. For the marginal distribution, we use a nonparametric Bayesian prior distribution along with a cdf-inverse cdf transformation to obtain large support. For the internal dynamics, we rely on the traditionally successful techniques of normal-theory time series. Coupling the two components gives us a family of (Gaussian) copula transformed autoregressive models. The models provide coherent adjustments of time scales and are compatible with many extensions, including changes in volatility of the series. We describe basic properties of the models, show their ability to recover non-Gaussian marginal distributions, and use a GARCH modification of the basic model to analyze stock index return series. The models are found to provide better fit and improved short-range and long-range predictions than Gaussian competitors. The models are extensible to a large variety of fields, including continuous time models, spatial models, models for multiple series, models driven by external covariate streams, and non-stationary models.

  12. Geomechanical time series and its singularity spectrum analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lyubushin, Alexei A.; Kaláb, Zdeněk; Lednická, Markéta

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 1 (2012), s. 69-77 ISSN 1217-8977 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA105/09/0089 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30860518 Keywords : geomechanical time series * singularity spectrum * time series segmentation * laser distance meter Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 0.347, year: 2012 http://www.akademiai.com/content/88v4027758382225/fulltext.pdf

  13. Stochastic Models in the DORIS Position Time Series: Estimates from the IDS Contribution to the ITRF2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, A.; Bogusz, J.; Moreaux, G.

    2017-12-01

    This research focuses on the investigation of the deterministic and stochastic parts of the DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite) weekly coordinate time series from the IDS contribution to the ITRF2014A set of 90 stations was divided into three groups depending on when the data was collected at an individual station. To reliably describe the DORIS time series, we employed a mathematical model that included the long-term nonlinear signal, linear trend, seasonal oscillations (these three sum up to produce the Polynomial Trend Model) and a stochastic part, all being resolved with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). We proved that the values of the parameters delivered for DORIS data are strictly correlated with the time span of the observations, meaning that the most recent data are the most reliable ones. Not only did the seasonal amplitudes decrease over the years, but also, and most importantly, the noise level and its type changed significantly. We examined five different noise models to be applied to the stochastic part of the DORIS time series: a pure white noise (WN), a pure power-law noise (PL), a combination of white and power-law noise (WNPL), an autoregressive process of first order (AR(1)) and a Generalized Gauss Markov model (GGM). From our study it arises that the PL process may be chosen as the preferred one for most of the DORIS data. Moreover, the preferred noise model has changed through the years from AR(1) to pure PL with few stations characterized by a positive spectral index.

  14. Operational use of open satellite data for marine water quality monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Symeonidis, Panagiotis; Vakkas, Theodoros

    2017-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an operational platform for marine water quality monitoring using near real time satellite data. The developed platform utilizes free and open satellite data available from different data sources like COPERNICUS, the European Earth Observation Initiative, or NASA, from different satellites and instruments. The quality of the marine environment is operationally evaluated using parameters like chlorophyll-a concentration, water color and Sea Surface Temperature (SST). For each parameter, there are more than one dataset available, from different data sources or satellites, to allow users to select the most appropriate dataset for their area or time of interest. The above datasets are automatically downloaded from the data provider's services and ingested to the central, spatial engine. The spatial data platform uses the Postgresql database with the PostGIS extension for spatial data storage and Geoserver for the provision of the spatial data services. The system provides daily, 10 days and monthly maps and time series of the above parameters. The information is provided using a web client which is based on the GET SDI PORTAL, an easy to use and feature rich geospatial visualization and analysis platform. The users can examine the temporal variation of the parameters using a simple time animation tool. In addition, with just one click on the map, the system provides an interactive time series chart for any of the parameters of the available datasets. The platform can be offered as Software as a Service (SaaS) to any area in the Mediterranean region.

  15. Pseudo-random bit generator based on lag time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Martínez, M.; Campos-Cantón, E.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper, we present a pseudo-random bit generator (PRBG) based on two lag time series of the logistic map using positive and negative values in the bifurcation parameter. In order to hidden the map used to build the pseudo-random series we have used a delay in the generation of time series. These new series when they are mapped xn against xn+1 present a cloud of points unrelated to the logistic map. Finally, the pseudo-random sequences have been tested with the suite of NIST giving satisfactory results for use in stream ciphers.

  16. Non-linear forecasting in high-frequency financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strozzi, F.; Zaldívar, J. M.

    2005-08-01

    A new methodology based on state space reconstruction techniques has been developed for trading in financial markets. The methodology has been tested using 18 high-frequency foreign exchange time series. The results are in apparent contradiction with the efficient market hypothesis which states that no profitable information about future movements can be obtained by studying the past prices series. In our (off-line) analysis positive gain may be obtained in all those series. The trading methodology is quite general and may be adapted to other financial time series. Finally, the steps for its on-line application are discussed.

  17. A Satellite-Based Surface Radiation Climatology Derived by Combining Climate Data Records and Near-Real-Time Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bodo Ahrens

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study presents a method for adjusting long-term climate data records (CDRs for the integrated use with near-real-time data using the example of surface incoming solar irradiance (SIS. Recently, a 23-year long (1983–2005 continuous SIS CDR has been generated based on the visible channel (0.45–1 μm of the MVIRI radiometers onboard the geostationary Meteosat First Generation Platform. The CDR is available from the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF. Here, it is assessed whether a homogeneous extension of the SIS CDR to the present is possible with operationally generated surface radiation data provided by CM SAF using the SEVIRI and GERB instruments onboard the Meteosat Second Generation satellites. Three extended CM SAF SIS CDR versions consisting of MVIRI-derived SIS (1983–2005 and three different SIS products derived from the SEVIRI and GERB instruments onboard the MSG satellites (2006 onwards were tested. A procedure to detect shift inhomogeneities in the extended data record (1983–present was applied that combines the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT and a penalized maximal T-test with visual inspection. Shift detection was done by comparing the SIS time series with the ground stations mean, in accordance with statistical significance. Several stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN and about 50 stations of the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA over Europe were used as the ground-based reference. The analysis indicates several breaks in the data record between 1987 and 1994 probably due to artefacts in the raw data and instrument failures. After 2005 the MVIRI radiometer was replaced by the narrow-band SEVIRI and the broadband GERB radiometers and a new retrieval algorithm was applied. This induces significant challenges for the homogenisation across the satellite generations. Homogenisation is performed by applying a mean-shift correction depending on the shift size of

  18. Analysis of JET ELMy time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zvejnieks, G.; Kuzovkov, V.N.

    2005-01-01

    Full text: Achievement of the planned operational regime in the next generation tokamaks (such as ITER) still faces principal problems. One of the main challenges is obtaining the control of edge localized modes (ELMs), which should lead to both long plasma pulse times and reasonable divertor life time. In order to control ELMs the hypothesis was proposed by Degeling [1] that ELMs exhibit features of chaotic dynamics and thus a standard chaos control methods might be applicable. However, our findings which are based on the nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) model contradict this hypothesis for JET ELMy time-series. In turn, it means that ELM behavior is of a relaxation or random type. These conclusions coincide with our previous results obtained for ASDEX Upgrade time series [2]. [1] A.W. Degeling, Y.R. Martin, P.E. Bak, J. B.Lister, and X. Llobet, Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 43, 1671 (2001). [2] G. Zvejnieks, V.N. Kuzovkov, O. Dumbrajs, A.W. Degeling, W. Suttrop, H. Urano, and H. Zohm, Physics of Plasmas 11, 5658 (2004)

  19. The Statistical Analysis of Time Series

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, T W

    2011-01-01

    The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences George

  20. Analysis of time series and size of equivalent sample

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal, Nestor; Molina, Alicia; Pabon, Daniel; Martinez, Jorge

    2004-01-01

    In a meteorological context, a first approach to the modeling of time series is to use models of autoregressive type. This allows one to take into account the meteorological persistence or temporal behavior, thereby identifying the memory of the analyzed process. This article seeks to pre-sent the concept of the size of an equivalent sample, which helps to identify in the data series sub periods with a similar structure. Moreover, in this article we examine the alternative of adjusting the variance of the series, keeping in mind its temporal structure, as well as an adjustment to the covariance of two time series. This article presents two examples, the first one corresponding to seven simulated series with autoregressive structure of first order, and the second corresponding to seven meteorological series of anomalies of the air temperature at the surface in two Colombian regions

  1. Scalable Prediction of Energy Consumption using Incremental Time Series Clustering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simmhan, Yogesh; Noor, Muhammad Usman

    2013-10-09

    Time series datasets are a canonical form of high velocity Big Data, and often generated by pervasive sensors, such as found in smart infrastructure. Performing predictive analytics on time series data can be computationally complex, and requires approximation techniques. In this paper, we motivate this problem using a real application from the smart grid domain. We propose an incremental clustering technique, along with a novel affinity score for determining cluster similarity, which help reduce the prediction error for cumulative time series within a cluster. We evaluate this technique, along with optimizations, using real datasets from smart meters, totaling ~700,000 data points, and show the efficacy of our techniques in improving the prediction error of time series data within polynomial time.

  2. Coral Bleaching Products - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    satellite remotely sensed global sea surface temperature (SST) measurements and derived indices of coral HotSpots, Degree Heating Weeks, Time Series, SST Contour Charts, Ocean Surface Winds, and On-site Buoys as the product, are derived from Coral Bleaching HotSpots and Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) values measured

  3. Forecasting with nonlinear time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper, nonlinear models are restricted to mean nonlinear parametric models. Several such models popular in time series econo- metrics are presented and some of their properties discussed. This in- cludes two models based on universal approximators: the Kolmogorov- Gabor polynomial model...... applied to economic fore- casting problems, is briefly highlighted. A number of large published studies comparing macroeconomic forecasts obtained using different time series models are discussed, and the paper also contains a small simulation study comparing recursive and direct forecasts in a partic...... and two versions of a simple artificial neural network model. Techniques for generating multi-period forecasts from nonlinear models recursively are considered, and the direct (non-recursive) method for this purpose is mentioned as well. Forecasting with com- plex dynamic systems, albeit less frequently...

  4. Minimizing Gaps of Daily Ndvi Map with Geostationary Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Ryu, Y.; Jiang, C.

    2015-12-01

    Satellite based remote sensing has been used to monitor plant phenology. Numerous studies have generally utilized normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to quantify phenological patterns and changes in regional to the global scales. Obtaining the NDVI values during summer in East Asian Monsoon regions is important because most plants grow vigorously in this season. However, satellite derived NDVI data are error prone to clouds during most of the period. Various methods have attempted to reduce the effect of cloud in temporal and spatial NDVI monitoring; the fundamental solution is to have a large data pool that includes multiple images in short period and supplements NDVI values in same period. Multiple images of geostationary satellite in a day can be a method to expand the pool. In this study, we suggest an approach that minimizes data gaps in NDVI of the day through geostationary satellite derived NDVI composition. We acquired data from Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) which is a satellite that was launched to monitor ocean around the Korean peninsula, China, Japan and Russia. The satellite observes eight times per day (09:00 - 16:00, every hour) at 500 x 500 m resolution from 2011 to 2015. GOCI red- and near infrared radiance was converted into surface reflectance by using 6S Radiative Transfer Model (6S). We calculated NDVI tiles for each of observed eight tiles per day and made one day NDVI through maximum-value composite method. We evaluated the composite GOCI derived NDVI by comparing with daily MODIS-derived NDVI (composited from MOD09GA and MYD09GA), 16-day Landsat 8-derived NDVI, and in-situ light emitting diode (LED) NDVI measurements at a homogeneous deciduous forest and rice paddy sites. We found that GOCI-derived NDVI maps revealed little data gaps compared to MODIS and Landsat, and GOCI derived NDVI time series were smoother than MODIS derived NDVI time series in summer. GOCI-derived NDVI agreed well with in-situ observations of NDVI

  5. Nonparametric factor analysis of time series

    OpenAIRE

    Rodríguez-Poo, Juan M.; Linton, Oliver Bruce

    1998-01-01

    We introduce a nonparametric smoothing procedure for nonparametric factor analaysis of multivariate time series. The asymptotic properties of the proposed procedures are derived. We present an application based on the residuals from the Fair macromodel.

  6. Time Series Outlier Detection Based on Sliding Window Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yufeng Yu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to detect outliers in hydrological time series data for improving data quality and decision-making quality related to design, operation, and management of water resources, this research develops a time series outlier detection method for hydrologic data that can be used to identify data that deviate from historical patterns. The method first built a forecasting model on the history data and then used it to predict future values. Anomalies are assumed to take place if the observed values fall outside a given prediction confidence interval (PCI, which can be calculated by the predicted value and confidence coefficient. The use of PCI as threshold is mainly on the fact that it considers the uncertainty in the data series parameters in the forecasting model to address the suitable threshold selection problem. The method performs fast, incremental evaluation of data as it becomes available, scales to large quantities of data, and requires no preclassification of anomalies. Experiments with different hydrologic real-world time series showed that the proposed methods are fast and correctly identify abnormal data and can be used for hydrologic time series analysis.

  7. Metagenomics meets time series analysis: unraveling microbial community dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faust, K.; Lahti, L.M.; Gonze, D.; Vos, de W.M.; Raes, J.

    2015-01-01

    The recent increase in the number of microbial time series studies offers new insights into the stability and dynamics of microbial communities, from the world's oceans to human microbiota. Dedicated time series analysis tools allow taking full advantage of these data. Such tools can reveal periodic

  8. Time series forecasting based on deep extreme learning machine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guo, Xuqi; Pang, Y.; Yan, Gaowei; Qiao, Tiezhu; Yang, Guang-Hong; Yang, Dan

    2017-01-01

    Multi-layer Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has caught widespread attention as a new method for time series forecasting due to the ability of approximating any nonlinear function. In this paper, a new local time series prediction model is established with the nearest neighbor domain theory, in

  9. False-nearest-neighbors algorithm and noise-corrupted time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rhodes, C.; Morari, M.

    1997-01-01

    The false-nearest-neighbors (FNN) algorithm was originally developed to determine the embedding dimension for autonomous time series. For noise-free computer-generated time series, the algorithm does a good job in predicting the embedding dimension. However, the problem of predicting the embedding dimension when the time-series data are corrupted by noise was not fully examined in the original studies of the FNN algorithm. Here it is shown that with large data sets, even small amounts of noise can lead to incorrect prediction of the embedding dimension. Surprisingly, as the length of the time series analyzed by FNN grows larger, the cause of incorrect prediction becomes more pronounced. An analysis of the effect of noise on the FNN algorithm and a solution for dealing with the effects of noise are given here. Some results on the theoretically correct choice of the FNN threshold are also presented. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

  10. Time: A Critical Parameter in Satellite Navigation and Positioning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The applications of space-borne satellites are increasing in many aspects of human endeavours; the most among them being the provision of guaranteed access to users of precise time and location services. An investigation was therefore carried out through a review process mechanism to determine the orbit parameter ...

  11. CauseMap: fast inference of causality from complex time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maher, M Cyrus; Hernandez, Ryan D

    2015-01-01

    Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data. Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM), a method for establishing causality from long time series data (≳25 observations). Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens' Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement CCM in Julia, a

  12. CauseMap: fast inference of causality from complex time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Cyrus Maher

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background. Establishing health-related causal relationships is a central pursuit in biomedical research. Yet, the interdependent non-linearity of biological systems renders causal dynamics laborious and at times impractical to disentangle. This pursuit is further impeded by the dearth of time series that are sufficiently long to observe and understand recurrent patterns of flux. However, as data generation costs plummet and technologies like wearable devices democratize data collection, we anticipate a coming surge in the availability of biomedically-relevant time series data. Given the life-saving potential of these burgeoning resources, it is critical to invest in the development of open source software tools that are capable of drawing meaningful insight from vast amounts of time series data.Results. Here we present CauseMap, the first open source implementation of convergent cross mapping (CCM, a method for establishing causality from long time series data (≳25 observations. Compared to existing time series methods, CCM has the advantage of being model-free and robust to unmeasured confounding that could otherwise induce spurious associations. CCM builds on Takens’ Theorem, a well-established result from dynamical systems theory that requires only mild assumptions. This theorem allows us to reconstruct high dimensional system dynamics using a time series of only a single variable. These reconstructions can be thought of as shadows of the true causal system. If reconstructed shadows can predict points from opposing time series, we can infer that the corresponding variables are providing views of the same causal system, and so are causally related. Unlike traditional metrics, this test can establish the directionality of causation, even in the presence of feedback loops. Furthermore, since CCM can extract causal relationships from times series of, e.g., a single individual, it may be a valuable tool to personalized medicine. We implement

  13. Time domain series system definition and gear set reliability modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Liyang; Wu, Ningxiang; Qian, Wenxue

    2016-01-01

    Time-dependent multi-configuration is a typical feature for mechanical systems such as gear trains and chain drives. As a series system, a gear train is distinct from a traditional series system, such as a chain, in load transmission path, system-component relationship, system functioning manner, as well as time-dependent system configuration. Firstly, the present paper defines time-domain series system to which the traditional series system reliability model is not adequate. Then, system specific reliability modeling technique is proposed for gear sets, including component (tooth) and subsystem (tooth-pair) load history description, material priori/posterior strength expression, time-dependent and system specific load-strength interference analysis, as well as statistically dependent failure events treatment. Consequently, several system reliability models are developed for gear sets with different tooth numbers in the scenario of tooth root material ultimate tensile strength failure. The application of the models is discussed in the last part, and the differences between the system specific reliability model and the traditional series system reliability model are illustrated by virtue of several numerical examples. - Highlights: • A new type of series system, i.e. time-domain multi-configuration series system is defined, that is of great significance to reliability modeling. • Multi-level statistical analysis based reliability modeling method is presented for gear transmission system. • Several system specific reliability models are established for gear set reliability estimation. • The differences between the traditional series system reliability model and the new model are illustrated.

  14. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  15. The Use of a Satellite Human Interaction System in Conjunction with a Satellite Media Distribution System. Satellite Technology Demonstration, Technical Report No. 0217.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Joyce B.

    Satellite Technology Demonstration (STD) was designed to provide data on the use of a satellite to deliver educational programs to 56 rural-isolated schools in eight Rocky Mountain States. Three series were broadcast: (1) a junior high school career development, (2) career development for public school administrators and teachers, and (3) topical…

  16. PRESEE: an MDL/MML algorithm to time-series stream segmenting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kaikuo; Jiang, Yexi; Tang, Mingjie; Yuan, Changan; Tang, Changjie

    2013-01-01

    Time-series stream is one of the most common data types in data mining field. It is prevalent in fields such as stock market, ecology, and medical care. Segmentation is a key step to accelerate the processing speed of time-series stream mining. Previous algorithms for segmenting mainly focused on the issue of ameliorating precision instead of paying much attention to the efficiency. Moreover, the performance of these algorithms depends heavily on parameters, which are hard for the users to set. In this paper, we propose PRESEE (parameter-free, real-time, and scalable time-series stream segmenting algorithm), which greatly improves the efficiency of time-series stream segmenting. PRESEE is based on both MDL (minimum description length) and MML (minimum message length) methods, which could segment the data automatically. To evaluate the performance of PRESEE, we conduct several experiments on time-series streams of different types and compare it with the state-of-art algorithm. The empirical results show that PRESEE is very efficient for real-time stream datasets by improving segmenting speed nearly ten times. The novelty of this algorithm is further demonstrated by the application of PRESEE in segmenting real-time stream datasets from ChinaFLUX sensor networks data stream.

  17. Time-varying surrogate data to assess nonlinearity in nonstationary time series: application to heart rate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faes, Luca; Zhao, He; Chon, Ki H; Nollo, Giandomenico

    2009-03-01

    We propose a method to extend to time-varying (TV) systems the procedure for generating typical surrogate time series, in order to test the presence of nonlinear dynamics in potentially nonstationary signals. The method is based on fitting a TV autoregressive (AR) model to the original series and then regressing the model coefficients with random replacements of the model residuals to generate TV AR surrogate series. The proposed surrogate series were used in combination with a TV sample entropy (SE) discriminating statistic to assess nonlinearity in both simulated and experimental time series, in comparison with traditional time-invariant (TIV) surrogates combined with the TIV SE discriminating statistic. Analysis of simulated time series showed that using TIV surrogates, linear nonstationary time series may be erroneously regarded as nonlinear and weak TV nonlinearities may remain unrevealed, while the use of TV AR surrogates markedly increases the probability of a correct interpretation. Application to short (500 beats) heart rate variability (HRV) time series recorded at rest (R), after head-up tilt (T), and during paced breathing (PB) showed: 1) modifications of the SE statistic that were well interpretable with the known cardiovascular physiology; 2) significant contribution of nonlinear dynamics to HRV in all conditions, with significant increase during PB at 0.2 Hz respiration rate; and 3) a disagreement between TV AR surrogates and TIV surrogates in about a quarter of the series, suggesting that nonstationarity may affect HRV recordings and bias the outcome of the traditional surrogate-based nonlinearity test.

  18. Local normalization: Uncovering correlations in non-stationary financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

    2010-09-01

    The measurement of correlations between financial time series is of vital importance for risk management. In this paper we address an estimation error that stems from the non-stationarity of the time series. We put forward a method to rid the time series of local trends and variable volatility, while preserving cross-correlations. We test this method in a Monte Carlo simulation, and apply it to empirical data for the S&P 500 stocks.

  19. Fuzzy time-series based on Fibonacci sequence for stock price forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Jong Teoh, Hia

    2007-07-01

    Time-series models have been utilized to make reasonably accurate predictions in the areas of stock price movements, academic enrollments, weather, etc. For promoting the forecasting performance of fuzzy time-series models, this paper proposes a new model, which incorporates the concept of the Fibonacci sequence, the framework of Song and Chissom's model and the weighted method of Yu's model. This paper employs a 5-year period TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) stock price data and a 13-year period of TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) stock index data as experimental datasets. By comparing our forecasting performances with Chen's (Forecasting enrollments based on fuzzy time-series. Fuzzy Sets Syst. 81 (1996) 311-319), Yu's (Weighted fuzzy time-series models for TAIEX forecasting. Physica A 349 (2004) 609-624) and Huarng's (The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series. Physica A 336 (2006) 481-491) models, we conclude that the proposed model surpasses in accuracy these conventional fuzzy time-series models.

  20. Precipitation Analysis at Fine Time Scales Using Multiple Satellites: Real-time and Research Products and Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Curtis, Scott; Pierce, Harold

    2004-01-01

    Quasi-global precipitation analyses at fine time scales (3-hr) are described. TRMM observations (radar and passive microwave) are used to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites instruments, including AMSR and AMSU) and geosynchronous IR observations. The individual data sets are then merged using a priority order based on quality to form the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA). Raingauge information is used to help constrain the satellite-based estimates over land. The TRMM standard research product (Version 6 3B-42 of the TRMM products) will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) in 2004. The real-time version of this merged product has been produced over the past two years and is available on the U.S. TRMM web site (trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov) at 0.25" latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 5O"N-5O0S. Validation of daily totals indicates good results, with limitations noted in mid-latitude winter over land and regions of shallow, orographic precipitation. Various applications of these estimates are described, including: 1) detecting potential floods in near real-time; 2) analyzing Indian Ocean precipitation variations related to the initiation of El Nino; 3) determining characteristics of the African monsoon; and 4) analysis of diurnal variations.

  1. Construction of Multi-Year Time-Series Profiles of Suspended Particulate Inorganic Matter Concentrations Using Machine Learning Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pannimpullath R. Renosh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydro-sedimentary numerical models have been widely employed to derive suspended particulate matter (SPM concentrations in coastal and estuarine waters. These hydro-sedimentary models are computationally and technically expensive in nature. Here we have used a computationally less-expensive, well-established methodology of self-organizing maps (SOMs along with a hidden Markov model (HMM to derive profiles of suspended particulate inorganic matter (SPIM. The concept of the proposed work is to benefit from all available data sets through the use of fusion methods and machine learning approaches that are able to process a growing amount of available data. This approach is applied to two different data sets entitled “Hidden” and “Observable”. The hidden data are composed of 15 months (27 September 2007 to 30 December 2008 of hourly SPIM profiles extracted from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS. The observable data include forcing parameter variables such as significant wave heights ( H s and H s 50 (50 days from the Wavewatch 3-HOMERE database and barotropic currents ( U b a r and V b a r from the Iberian–Biscay–Irish (IBI reanalysis data. These observable data integrate hourly surface samples from 1 February 2002 to 31 December 2012. The time-series profiles of the SPIM have been derived from four different stations in the English Channel by considering 15 months of output hidden data from the ROMS as a statistical representation of the ocean for ≈11 years. The derived SPIM profiles clearly show seasonal and tidal fluctuations in accordance with the parent numerical model output. The surface SPIM concentrations of the derived model have been validated with satellite remote sensing data. The time series of the modeled SPIM and satellite-derived SPIM show similar seasonal fluctuations. The ranges of concentrations for the four stations are also in good agreement with the corresponding satellite data. The high accuracy of the

  2. Near-real-time global biomass burning emissions product from geostationary satellite constellation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaoyang; Kondragunta, Shobha; Ram, Jessica; Schmidt, Christopher; Huang, Ho-Chun

    2012-07-01

    Near-real-time estimates of biomass burning emissions are crucial for air quality monitoring and forecasting. We present here the first near-real-time global biomass burning emission product from geostationary satellites (GBBEP-Geo) produced from satellite-derived fire radiative power (FRP) for individual fire pixels. Specifically, the FRP is retrieved using WF_ABBA V65 (wildfire automated biomass burning algorithm) from a network of multiple geostationary satellites. The network consists of two Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) which are operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Meteosat second-generation satellites (Meteosat-09) operated by the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, and the Multifunctional Transport Satellite (MTSAT) operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. These satellites observe wildfires at an interval of 15-30 min. Because of the impacts from sensor saturation, cloud cover, and background surface, the FRP values are generally not continuously observed. The missing observations are simulated by combining the available instantaneous FRP observations within a day and a set of representative climatological diurnal patterns of FRP for various ecosystems. Finally, the simulated diurnal variation in FRP is applied to quantify biomass combustion and emissions in individual fire pixels with a latency of 1 day. By analyzing global patterns in hourly biomass burning emissions in 2010, we find that peak fire season varied greatly and that annual wildfires burned 1.33 × 1012 kg dry mass, released 1.27 × 1010 kg of PM2.5 (particulate mass for particles with diameter forest and savanna fires in Africa, South America, and North America. Evaluation of emission result reveals that the GBBEP-Geo estimates are comparable with other FRP-derived estimates in Africa, while the results are generally smaller than most of the other global products that were derived from burned

  3. Parameterizing unconditional skewness in models for financial time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Changli; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we consider the third-moment structure of a class of time series models. It is often argued that the marginal distribution of financial time series such as returns is skewed. Therefore it is of importance to know what properties a model should possess if it is to accommodate...

  4. Self-organising mixture autoregressive model for non-stationary time series modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, He; Yin, Hujun

    2008-12-01

    Modelling non-stationary time series has been a difficult task for both parametric and nonparametric methods. One promising solution is to combine the flexibility of nonparametric models with the simplicity of parametric models. In this paper, the self-organising mixture autoregressive (SOMAR) network is adopted as a such mixture model. It breaks time series into underlying segments and at the same time fits local linear regressive models to the clusters of segments. In such a way, a global non-stationary time series is represented by a dynamic set of local linear regressive models. Neural gas is used for a more flexible structure of the mixture model. Furthermore, a new similarity measure has been introduced in the self-organising network to better quantify the similarity of time series segments. The network can be used naturally in modelling and forecasting non-stationary time series. Experiments on artificial, benchmark time series (e.g. Mackey-Glass) and real-world data (e.g. numbers of sunspots and Forex rates) are presented and the results show that the proposed SOMAR network is effective and superior to other similar approaches.

  5. The Prediction of Teacher Turnover Employing Time Series Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Crist H.

    The purpose of this study was to combine knowledge of teacher demographic data with time-series forecasting methods to predict teacher turnover. Moving averages and exponential smoothing were used to forecast discrete time series. The study used data collected from the 22 largest school districts in Iowa, designated as FACT schools. Predictions…

  6. Stacked Heterogeneous Neural Networks for Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Leon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid model for time series forecasting is proposed. It is a stacked neural network, containing one normal multilayer perceptron with bipolar sigmoid activation functions, and the other with an exponential activation function in the output layer. As shown by the case studies, the proposed stacked hybrid neural model performs well on a variety of benchmark time series. The combination of weights of the two stack components that leads to optimal performance is also studied.

  7. Chaotic time series prediction: From one to another

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Pengfei; Xing Lei; Yu Jun

    2009-01-01

    In this Letter, a new local linear prediction model is proposed to predict a chaotic time series of a component x(t) by using the chaotic time series of another component y(t) in the same system with x(t). Our approach is based on the phase space reconstruction coming from the Takens embedding theorem. To illustrate our results, we present an example of Lorenz system and compare with the performance of the original local linear prediction model.

  8. Grammar-based feature generation for time-series prediction

    CERN Document Server

    De Silva, Anthony Mihirana

    2015-01-01

    This book proposes a novel approach for time-series prediction using machine learning techniques with automatic feature generation. Application of machine learning techniques to predict time-series continues to attract considerable attention due to the difficulty of the prediction problems compounded by the non-linear and non-stationary nature of the real world time-series. The performance of machine learning techniques, among other things, depends on suitable engineering of features. This book proposes a systematic way for generating suitable features using context-free grammar. A number of feature selection criteria are investigated and a hybrid feature generation and selection algorithm using grammatical evolution is proposed. The book contains graphical illustrations to explain the feature generation process. The proposed approaches are demonstrated by predicting the closing price of major stock market indices, peak electricity load and net hourly foreign exchange client trade volume. The proposed method ...

  9. Forecasting autoregressive time series under changing persistence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson

    Changing persistence in time series models means that a structural change from nonstationarity to stationarity or vice versa occurs over time. Such a change has important implications for forecasting, as negligence may lead to inaccurate model predictions. This paper derives generally applicable...

  10. Recurrent Neural Networks for Multivariate Time Series with Missing Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, Zhengping; Purushotham, Sanjay; Cho, Kyunghyun; Sontag, David; Liu, Yan

    2018-04-17

    Multivariate time series data in practical applications, such as health care, geoscience, and biology, are characterized by a variety of missing values. In time series prediction and other related tasks, it has been noted that missing values and their missing patterns are often correlated with the target labels, a.k.a., informative missingness. There is very limited work on exploiting the missing patterns for effective imputation and improving prediction performance. In this paper, we develop novel deep learning models, namely GRU-D, as one of the early attempts. GRU-D is based on Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), a state-of-the-art recurrent neural network. It takes two representations of missing patterns, i.e., masking and time interval, and effectively incorporates them into a deep model architecture so that it not only captures the long-term temporal dependencies in time series, but also utilizes the missing patterns to achieve better prediction results. Experiments of time series classification tasks on real-world clinical datasets (MIMIC-III, PhysioNet) and synthetic datasets demonstrate that our models achieve state-of-the-art performance and provide useful insights for better understanding and utilization of missing values in time series analysis.

  11. Conditional time series forecasting with convolutional neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Borovykh (Anastasia); S.M. Bohte (Sander); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these

  12. Time Series Analysis of Wheat Futures Reward in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    Different from the fact that the main researches are focused on single futures contract and lack of the comparison of different periods, this paper described the statistical characteristics of wheat futures reward time series of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in recent three years. Besides the basic statistic analysis, the paper used the GARCH and EGARCH model to describe the time series which had the ARCH effect and analyzed the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect. The results showed that compared with that of normal one,wheat futures reward series were abnormality, leptokurtic and thick tail distribution. The study also found that two-part of the reward series had no autocorrelation. Among the six correlative series, three ones presented the ARCH effect. By using of the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model, GARCH model and EGARCH model, the paper demonstrates the persistence of volatility shocks and the leverage effect on the wheat futures reward time series. The results reveal that on the one hand, the statistical characteristics of the wheat futures reward are similar to the aboard mature futures market as a whole. But on the other hand, the results reflect some shortages such as the immatureness and the over-control by the government in the Chinese future market.

  13. Using space-time features to improve detection of forest disturbances from Landsat time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamunyela, E.; Reiche, J.; Verbesselt, J.; Herold, M.

    2017-01-01

    Current research on forest change monitoring using medium spatial resolution Landsat satellite data aims for accurate and timely detection of forest disturbances. However, producing forest disturbance maps that have both high spatial and temporal accuracy is still challenging because of the

  14. forecasting with nonlinear time series model: a monte-carlo

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PUBLICATIONS1

    erated recursively up to any step greater than one. For nonlinear time series model, point forecast for step one can be done easily like in the linear case but forecast for a step greater than or equal to ..... London. Franses, P. H. (1998). Time series models for business and Economic forecasting, Cam- bridge University press.

  15. Time series analysis of temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikdar, Sandipan; Ganguly, Niloy; Mukherjee, Animesh

    2016-01-01

    A common but an important feature of all real-world networks is that they are temporal in nature, i.e., the network structure changes over time. Due to this dynamic nature, it becomes difficult to propose suitable growth models that can explain the various important characteristic properties of these networks. In fact, in many application oriented studies only knowing these properties is sufficient. For instance, if one wishes to launch a targeted attack on a network, this can be done even without the knowledge of the full network structure; rather an estimate of some of the properties is sufficient enough to launch the attack. We, in this paper show that even if the network structure at a future time point is not available one can still manage to estimate its properties. We propose a novel method to map a temporal network to a set of time series instances, analyze them and using a standard forecast model of time series, try to predict the properties of a temporal network at a later time instance. To our aim, we consider eight properties such as number of active nodes, average degree, clustering coefficient etc. and apply our prediction framework on them. We mainly focus on the temporal network of human face-to-face contacts and observe that it represents a stochastic process with memory that can be modeled as Auto-Regressive-Integrated-Moving-Average (ARIMA). We use cross validation techniques to find the percentage accuracy of our predictions. An important observation is that the frequency domain properties of the time series obtained from spectrogram analysis could be used to refine the prediction framework by identifying beforehand the cases where the error in prediction is likely to be high. This leads to an improvement of 7.96% (for error level ≤20%) in prediction accuracy on an average across all datasets. As an application we show how such prediction scheme can be used to launch targeted attacks on temporal networks. Contribution to the Topical Issue

  16. The Hierarchical Spectral Merger Algorithm: A New Time Series Clustering Procedure

    KAUST Repository

    Euá n, Carolina; Ombao, Hernando; Ortega, Joaquí n

    2018-01-01

    We present a new method for time series clustering which we call the Hierarchical Spectral Merger (HSM) method. This procedure is based on the spectral theory of time series and identifies series that share similar oscillations or waveforms

  17. Notes on economic time series analysis system theoretic perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Aoki, Masanao

    1983-01-01

    In seminars and graduate level courses I have had several opportunities to discuss modeling and analysis of time series with economists and economic graduate students during the past several years. These experiences made me aware of a gap between what economic graduate students are taught about vector-valued time series and what is available in recent system literature. Wishing to fill or narrow the gap that I suspect is more widely spread than my personal experiences indicate, I have written these notes to augment and reor­ ganize materials I have given in these courses and seminars. I have endeavored to present, in as much a self-contained way as practicable, a body of results and techniques in system theory that I judge to be relevant and useful to economists interested in using time series in their research. I have essentially acted as an intermediary and interpreter of system theoretic results and perspectives in time series by filtering out non-essential details, and presenting coherent accounts of wha...

  18. Mackenzie River Delta morphological change based on Landsat time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesakoski, Jenni-Mari; Alho, Petteri; Gustafsson, David; Arheimer, Berit; Isberg, Kristina

    2015-04-01

    Arctic rivers are sensitive and yet quite unexplored river systems to which the climate change will impact on. Research has not focused in detail on the fluvial geomorphology of the Arctic rivers mainly due to the remoteness and wideness of the watersheds, problems with data availability and difficult accessibility. Nowadays wide collaborative spatial databases in hydrology as well as extensive remote sensing datasets over the Arctic are available and they enable improved investigation of the Arctic watersheds. Thereby, it is also important to develop and improve methods that enable detecting the fluvio-morphological processes based on the available data. Furthermore, it is essential to reconstruct and improve the understanding of the past fluvial processes in order to better understand prevailing and future fluvial processes. In this study we sum up the fluvial geomorphological change in the Mackenzie River Delta during the last ~30 years. The Mackenzie River Delta (~13 000 km2) is situated in the North Western Territories, Canada where the Mackenzie River enters to the Beaufort Sea, Arctic Ocean near the city of Inuvik. Mackenzie River Delta is lake-rich, productive ecosystem and ecologically sensitive environment. Research objective is achieved through two sub-objectives: 1) Interpretation of the deltaic river channel planform change by applying Landsat time series. 2) Definition of the variables that have impacted the most on detected changes by applying statistics and long hydrological time series derived from Arctic-HYPE model (HYdrologic Predictions for Environment) developed by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. According to our satellite interpretation, field observations and statistical analyses, notable spatio-temporal changes have occurred in the morphology of the river channel and delta during the past 30 years. For example, the channels have been developing in braiding and sinuosity. In addition, various linkages between the studied

  19. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    António M Lopes

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  20. Dynamical analysis and visualization of tornadoes time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the behavior of tornado time-series in the U.S. from the perspective of dynamical systems. A tornado is a violently rotating column of air extending from a cumulonimbus cloud down to the ground. Such phenomena reveal features that are well described by power law functions and unveil characteristics found in systems with long range memory effects. Tornado time series are viewed as the output of a complex system and are interpreted as a manifestation of its dynamics. Tornadoes are modeled as sequences of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the events size. First, a collection of time series involving 64 years is analyzed in the frequency domain by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectra are approximated by power law functions and their parameters are read as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. Second, it is adopted the concept of circular time and the collective behavior of tornadoes analyzed. Clustering techniques are then adopted to identify and visualize the emerging patterns.

  1. "Observation Obscurer" - Time Series Viewer, Editor and Processor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andronov, I. L.

    The program is described, which contains a set of subroutines suitable for East viewing and interactive filtering and processing of regularly and irregularly spaced time series. Being a 32-bit DOS application, it may be used as a default fast viewer/editor of time series in any compute shell ("commander") or in Windows. It allows to view the data in the "time" or "phase" mode, to remove ("obscure") or filter outstanding bad points; to make scale transformations and smoothing using few methods (e.g. mean with phase binning, determination of the statistically opti- mal number of phase bins; "running parabola" (Andronov, 1997, As. Ap. Suppl, 125, 207) fit and to make time series analysis using some methods, e.g. correlation, autocorrelation and histogram analysis: determination of extrema etc. Some features have been developed specially for variable star observers, e.g. the barycentric correction, the creation and fast analysis of "OC" diagrams etc. The manual for "hot keys" is presented. The computer code was compiled with a 32-bit Free Pascal (www.freepascal.org).

  2. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  3. Multiscale Poincaré plots for visualizing the structure of heartbeat time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriques, Teresa S; Mariani, Sara; Burykin, Anton; Rodrigues, Filipa; Silva, Tiago F; Goldberger, Ary L

    2016-02-09

    Poincaré delay maps are widely used in the analysis of cardiac interbeat interval (RR) dynamics. To facilitate visualization of the structure of these time series, we introduce multiscale Poincaré (MSP) plots. Starting with the original RR time series, the method employs a coarse-graining procedure to create a family of time series, each of which represents the system's dynamics in a different time scale. Next, the Poincaré plots are constructed for the original and the coarse-grained time series. Finally, as an optional adjunct, color can be added to each point to represent its normalized frequency. We illustrate the MSP method on simulated Gaussian white and 1/f noise time series. The MSP plots of 1/f noise time series reveal relative conservation of the phase space area over multiple time scales, while those of white noise show a marked reduction in area. We also show how MSP plots can be used to illustrate the loss of complexity when heartbeat time series from healthy subjects are compared with those from patients with chronic (congestive) heart failure syndrome or with atrial fibrillation. This generalized multiscale approach to Poincaré plots may be useful in visualizing other types of time series.

  4. Time series patterns and language support in DBMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telnarova, Zdenka

    2017-07-01

    This contribution is focused on pattern type Time Series as a rich in semantics representation of data. Some example of implementation of this pattern type in traditional Data Base Management Systems is briefly presented. There are many approaches how to manipulate with patterns and query patterns. Crucial issue can be seen in systematic approach to pattern management and specific pattern query language which takes into consideration semantics of patterns. Query language SQL-TS for manipulating with patterns is shown on Time Series data.

  5. Two-fractal overlap time series: Earthquakes and market crashes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations. Keywords. Cantor set; time series; earthquake; market crash. PACS Nos 05.00; 02.50.-r; 64.60; 89.65.Gh; 95.75.Wx. 1. Introduction. Capturing dynamical patterns of ...

  6. Real-Time and Seamless Monitoring of Ground-Level PM2.5 Using Satellite Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tongwen; Zhang, Chengyue; Shen, Huanfeng; Yuan, Qiangqiang; Zhang, Liangpei

    2018-04-01

    Satellite remote sensing has been reported to be a promising approach for the monitoring of atmospheric PM2.5. However, the satellite-based monitoring of ground-level PM2.5 is still challenging. First, the previously used polar-orbiting satellite observations, which can be usually acquired only once per day, are hard to monitor PM2.5 in real time. Second, many data gaps exist in satellitederived PM2.5 due to the cloud contamination. In this paper, the hourly geostationary satellite (i.e., Harawari-8) observations were adopted for the real-time monitoring of PM2.5 in a deep learning architecture. On this basis, the satellite-derived PM2.5 in conjunction with ground PM2.5 measurements are incorporated into a spatio-temporal fusion model to fill the data gaps. Using Wuhan Urban Agglomeration as an example, we have successfully derived the real-time and seamless PM2.5 distributions. The results demonstrate that Harawari-8 satellite-based deep learning model achieves a satisfactory performance (out-of-sample cross-validation R2 = 0.80, RMSE = 17.49 μg/m3) for the estimation of PM2.5. The missing data in satellite-derive PM2.5 are accurately recovered, with R2 between recoveries and ground measurements of 0.75. Overall, this study has inherently provided an effective strategy for the realtime and seamless monitoring of ground-level PM2.5.

  7. Nonlinear time series analysis with R

    CERN Document Server

    Huffaker, Ray; Rosa, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    In the process of data analysis, the investigator is often facing highly-volatile and random-appearing observed data. A vast body of literature shows that the assumption of underlying stochastic processes was not necessarily representing the nature of the processes under investigation and, when other tools were used, deterministic features emerged. Non Linear Time Series Analysis (NLTS) allows researchers to test whether observed volatility conceals systematic non linear behavior, and to rigorously characterize governing dynamics. Behavioral patterns detected by non linear time series analysis, along with scientific principles and other expert information, guide the specification of mechanistic models that serve to explain real-world behavior rather than merely reproducing it. Often there is a misconception regarding the complexity of the level of mathematics needed to understand and utilize the tools of NLTS (for instance Chaos theory). However, mathematics used in NLTS is much simpler than many other subjec...

  8. InSAR Deformation Time Series Processed On-Demand in the Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn, W. B.; Weeden, R.; Dimarchi, H.; Arko, S. A.; Hogenson, K.

    2017-12-01

    During this past year, ASF has developed a cloud-based on-demand processing system known as HyP3 (http://hyp3.asf.alaska.edu/), the Hybrid Pluggable Processing Pipeline, for Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The system makes it easy for a user who doesn't have the time or inclination to install and use complex SAR processing software to leverage SAR data in their research or operations. One such processing algorithm is generation of a deformation time series product, which is a series of images representing ground displacements over time, which can be computed using a time series of interferometric SAR (InSAR) products. The set of software tools necessary to generate this useful product are difficult to install, configure, and use. Moreover, for a long time series with many images, the processing of just the interferograms can take days. Principally built by three undergraduate students at the ASF DAAC, the deformation time series processing relies the new Amazon Batch service, which enables processing of jobs with complex interconnected dependencies in a straightforward and efficient manner. In the case of generating a deformation time series product from a stack of single-look complex SAR images, the system uses Batch to serialize the up-front processing, interferogram generation, optional tropospheric correction, and deformation time series generation. The most time consuming portion is the interferogram generation, because even for a fairly small stack of images many interferograms need to be processed. By using AWS Batch, the interferograms are all generated in parallel; the entire process completes in hours rather than days. Additionally, the individual interferograms are saved in Amazon's cloud storage, so that when new data is acquired in the stack, an updated time series product can be generated with minimal addiitonal processing. This presentation will focus on the development techniques and enabling technologies that were used in developing the time

  9. Progress in Near Real-Time Volcanic Cloud Observations Using Satellite UV Instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotkov, N. A.; Yang, K.; Vicente, G.; Hughes, E. J.; Carn, S. A.; Krueger, A. J.

    2011-12-01

    Volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions can wreak havoc in many parts of the world, as exemplified by the 2010 eruption at the Eyjafjöll volcano in Iceland, which caused widespread disruption to air traffic and resulted in economic impacts across the globe. A suite of satellite-based systems offer the most effective means to monitor active volcanoes and to track the movement of volcanic clouds globally, providing critical information for aviation hazard mitigation. Satellite UV sensors, as part of this suite, have a long history of making unique near-real time (NRT) measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash (aerosol Index) in volcanic clouds to supplement operational volcanic ash monitoring. Recently a NASA application project has shown that the use of near real-time (NRT,i.e., not older than 3 h) Aura/OMI satellite data produces a marked improvement in volcanic cloud detection using SO2 combined with Aerosol Index (AI) as a marker for ash. An operational online NRT OMI AI and SO2 image and data product distribution system was developed in collaboration with the NOAA Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Automated volcanic eruption alarms, and the production of volcanic cloud subsets for multiple regions are provided through the NOAA website. The data provide valuable information in support of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration goal of a safe and efficient National Air Space. In this presentation, we will highlight the advantages of UV techniques and describe the advances in volcanic SO2 plume height estimation and enhanced volcanic ash detection using hyper-spectral UV measurements, illustrated with Aura/OMI observations of recent eruptions. We will share our plan to provide near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring service using the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS).

  10. Vector bilinear autoregressive time series model and its superiority ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this research, a vector bilinear autoregressive time series model was proposed and used to model three revenue series (X1, X2, X3) . The “orders” of the three series were identified on the basis of the distribution of autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions and were used to construct the vector bilinear models.

  11. HIMAWARI-8 Geostationary Satellite Observation of the Internal Solitary Waves in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Q.; Dong, D.; Yang, X.; Husi, L.; Shang, H.

    2018-04-01

    The new generation geostationary meteorological satellite, Himawari-8 (H-8), was launched in 2015. Its main payload, the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), can observe the earth with 10-minute interval and as high as 500-m spatial resolution. This makes the H-8 satellite an ideal data source for marine and atmospheric phenomena monitoring. In this study, the propagation of internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the South China Sea is investigated using AHI imagery time series for the first time. Three ISWs cases were studied at 3:30-8:00 UTC on 30 May, 2016. In all, 28 ISWs were detected and tracked between the time series image pairs. The propagation direction and phase speeds of these ISWs are calculated and analyzed. The observation results show that the properties of ISW propagation not stable and maintains nonlinear during its lifetime. The resultant ISW speeds agree well with the theoretical values estimated from the Taylor-Goldstein equation using Argo dataset. This study has demonstrated that the new generation geostationary satellite can be a useful tool to monitor and investigate the oceanic internal waves.

  12. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  13. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  14. Modeling seasonality in bimonthly time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractA recurring issue in modeling seasonal time series variables is the choice of the most adequate model for the seasonal movements. One selection method for quarterly data is proposed in Hylleberg et al. (1990). Market response models are often constructed for bimonthly variables, and

  15. On clustering fMRI time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goutte, Cyril; Toft, Peter Aundal; Rostrup, E.

    1999-01-01

    Analysis of fMRI time series is often performed by extracting one or more parameters for the individual voxels. Methods based, e.g., on various statistical tests are then used to yield parameters corresponding to probability of activation or activation strength. However, these methods do...

  16. FALSE DETERMINATIONS OF CHAOS IN SHORT NOISY TIME SERIES. (R828745)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A method (NEMG) proposed in 1992 for diagnosing chaos in noisy time series with 50 or fewer observations entails fitting the time series with an empirical function which predicts an observation in the series from previous observations, and then estimating the rate of divergenc...

  17. Multiscale multifractal multiproperty analysis of financial time series based on Rényi entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yujun, Yang; Jianping, Li; Yimei, Yang

    This paper introduces a multiscale multifractal multiproperty analysis based on Rényi entropy (3MPAR) method to analyze short-range and long-range characteristics of financial time series, and then applies this method to the five time series of five properties in four stock indices. Combining the two analysis techniques of Rényi entropy and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA), the 3MPAR method focuses on the curves of Rényi entropy and generalized Hurst exponent of five properties of four stock time series, which allows us to study more universal and subtle fluctuation characteristics of financial time series. By analyzing the curves of the Rényi entropy and the profiles of the logarithm distribution of MFDFA of five properties of four stock indices, the 3MPAR method shows some fluctuation characteristics of the financial time series and the stock markets. Then, it also shows a richer information of the financial time series by comparing the profile of five properties of four stock indices. In this paper, we not only focus on the multifractality of time series but also the fluctuation characteristics of the financial time series and subtle differences in the time series of different properties. We find that financial time series is far more complex than reported in some research works using one property of time series.

  18. A Literature Survey of Early Time Series Classification and Deep Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Santos, Tiago; Kern, Roman

    2017-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of current literature on time series classification approaches, in particular of early time series classification. A very common and effective time series classification approach is the 1-Nearest Neighbor classier, with different distance measures such as the Euclidean or dynamic time warping distances. This paper starts by reviewing these baseline methods. More recently, with the gain in popularity in the application of deep neural networks to the eld of...

  19. Signal Processing for Time-Series Functions on a Graph

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-02-01

    Figures Fig. 1 Time -series function on a fixed graph.............................................2 iv Approved for public release; distribution is...φi〉`2(V)φi (39) 6= f̄ (40) Instead, we simply recover the average of f over time . 13 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. This...ARL-TR-8276• FEB 2018 US Army Research Laboratory Signal Processing for Time -Series Functions on a Graph by Humberto Muñoz-Barona, Jean Vettel, and

  20. Non-linear time series extreme events and integer value problems

    CERN Document Server

    Turkman, Kamil Feridun; Zea Bermudez, Patrícia

    2014-01-01

    This book offers a useful combination of probabilistic and statistical tools for analyzing nonlinear time series. Key features of the book include a study of the extremal behavior of nonlinear time series and a comprehensive list of nonlinear models that address different aspects of nonlinearity. Several inferential methods, including quasi likelihood methods, sequential Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods and particle filters, are also included so as to provide an overall view of the available tools for parameter estimation for nonlinear models. A chapter on integer time series models based on several thinning operations, which brings together all recent advances made in this area, is also included. Readers should have attended a prior course on linear time series, and a good grasp of simulation-based inferential methods is recommended. This book offers a valuable resource for second-year graduate students and researchers in statistics and other scientific areas who need a basic understanding of nonlinear time ...

  1. Learning of time series through neuron-to-neuron instruction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyazaki, Y [Department of Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502, (Japan); Kinzel, W [Institut fuer Theoretische Physik, Universitaet Wurzburg, 97074 Wurzburg (Germany); Shinomoto, S [Department of Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan)

    2003-02-07

    A model neuron with delayline feedback connections can learn a time series generated by another model neuron. It has been known that some student neurons that have completed such learning under the instruction of a teacher's quasi-periodic sequence mimic the teacher's time series over a long interval, even after instruction has ceased. We found that in addition to such faithful students, there are unfaithful students whose time series eventually diverge exponentially from that of the teacher. In order to understand the circumstances that allow for such a variety of students, the orbit dimension was estimated numerically. The quasi-periodic orbits in question were found to be confined in spaces with dimensions significantly smaller than that of the full phase space.

  2. Learning of time series through neuron-to-neuron instruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miyazaki, Y; Kinzel, W; Shinomoto, S

    2003-01-01

    A model neuron with delayline feedback connections can learn a time series generated by another model neuron. It has been known that some student neurons that have completed such learning under the instruction of a teacher's quasi-periodic sequence mimic the teacher's time series over a long interval, even after instruction has ceased. We found that in addition to such faithful students, there are unfaithful students whose time series eventually diverge exponentially from that of the teacher. In order to understand the circumstances that allow for such a variety of students, the orbit dimension was estimated numerically. The quasi-periodic orbits in question were found to be confined in spaces with dimensions significantly smaller than that of the full phase space

  3. Data Rods: High Speed, Time-Series Analysis of Massive Cryospheric Data Sets Using Object-Oriented Database Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Y.; Gallaher, D. W.; Grant, G.; Lv, Q.

    2011-12-01

    Change over time, is the central driver of climate change detection. The goal is to diagnose the underlying causes, and make projections into the future. In an effort to optimize this process we have developed the Data Rod model, an object-oriented approach that provides the ability to query grid cell changes and their relationships to neighboring grid cells through time. The time series data is organized in time-centric structures called "data rods." A single data rod can be pictured as the multi-spectral data history at one grid cell: a vertical column of data through time. This resolves the long-standing problem of managing time-series data and opens new possibilities for temporal data analysis. This structure enables rapid time- centric analysis at any grid cell across multiple sensors and satellite platforms. Collections of data rods can be spatially and temporally filtered, statistically analyzed, and aggregated for use with pattern matching algorithms. Likewise, individual image pixels can be extracted to generate multi-spectral imagery at any spatial and temporal location. The Data Rods project has created a series of prototype databases to store and analyze massive datasets containing multi-modality remote sensing data. Using object-oriented technology, this method overcomes the operational limitations of traditional relational databases. To demonstrate the speed and efficiency of time-centric analysis using the Data Rods model, we have developed a sea ice detection algorithm. This application determines the concentration of sea ice in a small spatial region across a long temporal window. If performed using traditional analytical techniques, this task would typically require extensive data downloads and spatial filtering. Using Data Rods databases, the exact spatio-temporal data set is immediately available No extraneous data is downloaded, and all selected data querying occurs transparently on the server side. Moreover, fundamental statistical

  4. Quirky patterns in time-series of estimates of recruitment could be artefacts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dickey-Collas, M.; Hinzen, N.T.; Nash, R.D.M.

    2015-01-01

    of recruitment time-series in databases is therefore not consistent across or within species and stocks. Caution is therefore required as perhaps the characteristics of the time-series of stock dynamics may be determined by the model used to generate them, rather than underlying ecological phenomena......The accessibility of databases of global or regional stock assessment outputs is leading to an increase in meta-analysis of the dynamics of fish stocks. In most of these analyses, each of the time-series is generally assumed to be directly comparable. However, the approach to stock assessment...... employed, and the associated modelling assumptions, can have an important influence on the characteristics of each time-series. We explore this idea by investigating recruitment time-series with three different recruitment parameterizations: a stock–recruitment model, a random-walk time-series model...

  5. The Hierarchical Spectral Merger Algorithm: A New Time Series Clustering Procedure

    KAUST Repository

    Euán, Carolina

    2018-04-12

    We present a new method for time series clustering which we call the Hierarchical Spectral Merger (HSM) method. This procedure is based on the spectral theory of time series and identifies series that share similar oscillations or waveforms. The extent of similarity between a pair of time series is measured using the total variation distance between their estimated spectral densities. At each step of the algorithm, every time two clusters merge, a new spectral density is estimated using the whole information present in both clusters, which is representative of all the series in the new cluster. The method is implemented in an R package HSMClust. We present two applications of the HSM method, one to data coming from wave-height measurements in oceanography and the other to electroencefalogram (EEG) data.

  6. Estimation of time-delayed mutual information and bias for irregularly and sparsely sampled time-series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albers, D.J.; Hripcsak, George

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Time-delayed mutual information for irregularly sampled time-series. ► Estimation bias for the time-delayed mutual information calculation. ► Fast, simple, PDF estimator independent, time-delayed mutual information bias estimate. ► Quantification of data-set-size limits of the time-delayed mutual calculation. - Abstract: A method to estimate the time-dependent correlation via an empirical bias estimate of the time-delayed mutual information for a time-series is proposed. In particular, the bias of the time-delayed mutual information is shown to often be equivalent to the mutual information between two distributions of points from the same system separated by infinite time. Thus intuitively, estimation of the bias is reduced to estimation of the mutual information between distributions of data points separated by large time intervals. The proposed bias estimation techniques are shown to work for Lorenz equations data and glucose time series data of three patients from the Columbia University Medical Center database.

  7. Inferring interdependencies from short time series

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Complex networks provide an invaluable framework for the study of interlinked dynamical systems. In many cases, such networks are constructed from observed time series by first estimating the ...... does not quantify causal relations (unlike IOTA, or .... Africa_map_regions.svg, which is under public domain.

  8. Monitoring land surface albedo and vegetation dynamics using high spatial and temporal resolution synthetic time series from Landsat and the MODIS BRDF/NBAR/albedo product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhuosen; Schaaf, Crystal B.; Sun, Qingsong; Kim, JiHyun; Erb, Angela M.; Gao, Feng; Román, Miguel O.; Yang, Yun; Petroy, Shelley; Taylor, Jeffrey R.; Masek, Jeffrey G.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Papuga, Shirley A.

    2017-07-01

    Seasonal vegetation phenology can significantly alter surface albedo which in turn affects the global energy balance and the albedo warming/cooling feedbacks that impact climate change. To monitor and quantify the surface dynamics of heterogeneous landscapes, high temporal and spatial resolution synthetic time series of albedo and the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) were generated from the 500 m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) operational Collection V006 daily BRDF/NBAR/albedo products and 30 m Landsat 5 albedo and near-nadir reflectance data through the use of the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). The traditional Landsat Albedo (Shuai et al., 2011) makes use of the MODIS BRDF/Albedo products (MCD43) by assigning appropriate BRDFs from coincident MODIS products to each Landsat image to generate a 30 m Landsat albedo product for that acquisition date. The available cloud free Landsat 5 albedos (due to clouds, generated every 16 days at best) were used in conjunction with the daily MODIS albedos to determine the appropriate 30 m albedos for the intervening daily time steps in this study. These enhanced daily 30 m spatial resolution synthetic time series were then used to track albedo and vegetation phenology dynamics over three Ameriflux tower sites (Harvard Forest in 2007, Santa Rita in 2011 and Walker Branch in 2005). These Ameriflux sites were chosen as they are all quite nearby new towers coming on line for the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), and thus represent locations which will be served by spatially paired albedo measures in the near future. The availability of data from the NEON towers will greatly expand the sources of tower albedometer data available for evaluation of satellite products. At these three Ameriflux tower sites the synthetic time series of broadband shortwave albedos were evaluated using the tower albedo measurements with a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) less than 0.013 and a

  9. TOGA COARE Satellite data summaries available on the World Wide Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.; Houze, R. A., Jr.; Mapes, B. E.; Brodzick, S. R.; Yutler, S. E.

    1995-01-01

    Satellite data summary images and analysis plots from the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), which were initially prepared in the field at the Honiara Operations Center, are now available on the Internet via World Wide Web browsers such as Mosaic. These satellite data summaries consist of products derived from the Japanese Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite IR data: a time-size series of the distribution of contiguous cold cloudiness areas, weekly percent high cloudiness (PHC) maps, and a five-month time-longitudinal diagram illustrating the zonal motion of large areas of cold cloudiness. The weekly PHC maps are overlaid with weekly mean 850-hPa wind calculated from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analysis field and can be viewed as an animation loop. These satellite summaries provide an overview of spatial and temporal variabilities of the cloud population and a large-scale context for studies concerning specific processes of various components of TOGA COARE.

  10. Stochastic modeling of hourly rainfall times series in Campania (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of flowslides and floods in small catchments is uneasy to predict, since it is affected by a number of variables, such as mechanical and hydraulic soil properties, slope morphology, vegetation coverage, rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Consequently, landslide risk assessment procedures and early warning systems still rely on simple empirical models based on correlation between recorded rainfall data and observed landslides and/or river discharges. Effectiveness of such systems could be improved by reliable quantitative rainfall prediction, which can allow gaining larger lead-times. Analysis of on-site recorded rainfall height time series represents the most effective approach for a reliable prediction of local temporal evolution of rainfall. Hydrological time series analysis is a widely studied field in hydrology, often carried out by means of autoregressive models, such as AR, ARMA, ARX, ARMAX (e.g. Salas [1992]). Such models gave the best results when applied to the analysis of autocorrelated hydrological time series, like river flow or level time series. Conversely, they are not able to model the behaviour of intermittent time series, like point rainfall height series usually are, especially when recorded with short sampling time intervals. More useful for this issue are the so-called DRIP (Disaggregated Rectangular Intensity Pulse) and NSRP (Neymann-Scott Rectangular Pulse) model [Heneker et al., 2001; Cowpertwait et al., 2002], usually adopted to generate synthetic point rainfall series. In this paper, the DRIP model approach is adopted, in which the sequence of rain storms and dry intervals constituting the structure of rainfall time series is modeled as an alternating renewal process. Final aim of the study is to provide a useful tool to implement an early warning system for hydrogeological risk management. Model calibration has been carried out with hourly rainfall hieght data provided by the rain gauges of Campania Region civil

  11. GNSS global real-time augmentation positioning: Real-time precise satellite clock estimation, prototype system construction and performance analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Zhao, Qile; Hu, Zhigang; Jiang, Xinyuan; Geng, Changjiang; Ge, Maorong; Shi, Chuang

    2018-01-01

    Lots of ambiguities in un-differenced (UD) model lead to lower calculation efficiency, which isn't appropriate for the high-frequency real-time GNSS clock estimation, like 1 Hz. Mixed differenced model fusing UD pseudo-range and epoch-differenced (ED) phase observations has been introduced into real-time clock estimation. In this contribution, we extend the mixed differenced model for realizing multi-GNSS real-time clock high-frequency updating and a rigorous comparison and analysis on same conditions are performed to achieve the best real-time clock estimation performance taking the efficiency, accuracy, consistency and reliability into consideration. Based on the multi-GNSS real-time data streams provided by multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) and Wuhan University, GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning prototype system is designed and constructed, including real-time precise orbit determination, real-time precise clock estimation, real-time Precise Point Positioning (RT-PPP) and real-time Standard Point Positioning (RT-SPP). The statistical analysis of the 6 h-predicted real-time orbits shows that the root mean square (RMS) in radial direction is about 1-5 cm for GPS, Beidou MEO and Galileo satellites and about 10 cm for Beidou GEO and IGSO satellites. Using the mixed differenced estimation model, the prototype system can realize high-efficient real-time satellite absolute clock estimation with no constant clock-bias and can be used for high-frequency augmentation message updating (such as 1 Hz). The real-time augmentation message signal-in-space ranging error (SISRE), a comprehensive accuracy of orbit and clock and effecting the users' actual positioning performance, is introduced to evaluate and analyze the performance of GPS + BeiDou + Galileo global real-time augmentation positioning system. The statistical analysis of real-time augmentation message SISRE is about 4-7 cm for GPS, whlile 10 cm for Beidou IGSO/MEO, Galileo and about 30 cm

  12. Using forbidden ordinal patterns to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulp, C W; Chobot, J M; Niskala, B J; Needhammer, C J

    2016-02-01

    It is known that when symbolizing a time series into ordinal patterns using the Bandt-Pompe (BP) methodology, there will be ordinal patterns called forbidden patterns that do not occur in a deterministic series. The existence of forbidden patterns can be used to identify deterministic dynamics. In this paper, the ability to use forbidden patterns to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series is tested on data generated from a continuous model system. The study is done in three parts. First, the effects of sampling time on the number of forbidden patterns are studied on regularly sampled time series. The next two parts focus on two types of irregular-sampling, missing data and timing jitter. It is shown that forbidden patterns can be used to detect determinism in irregularly sampled time series for low degrees of sampling irregularity (as defined in the paper). In addition, comments are made about the appropriateness of using the BP methodology to symbolize irregularly sampled time series.

  13. Forecasting the Reference Evapotranspiration Using Time Series Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zare Abyaneh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reference evapotranspiration is one of the most important factors in irrigation timing and field management. Moreover, reference evapotranspiration forecasting can play a vital role in future developments. Therefore in this study, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to forecast the reference evapotranspiration time series in the Esfahan, Semnan, Shiraz, Kerman, and Yazd synoptic stations. Materials and Methods: In the present study in all stations (characteristics of the synoptic stations are given in Table 1, the meteorological data, including mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, dry-and wet-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, precipitation, air vapor pressure and sunshine hours were collected from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the 41 years from 1965 to 2005. The FAO Penman-Monteith equation was used to calculate the monthly reference evapotranspiration in the five synoptic stations and the evapotranspiration time series were formed. The unit root test was used to identify whether the time series was stationary, then using the Box-Jenkins method, seasonal ARIMA models were applied to the sample data. Table 1. The geographical location and climate conditions of the synoptic stations Station\tGeographical location\tAltitude (m\tMean air temperature (°C\tMean precipitation (mm\tClimate, according to the De Martonne index classification Longitude (E\tLatitude (N Annual\tMin. and Max. Esfahan\t51° 40'\t32° 37'\t1550.4\t16.36\t9.4-23.3\t122\tArid Semnan\t53° 33'\t35° 35'\t1130.8\t18.0\t12.4-23.8\t140\tArid Shiraz\t52° 36'\t29° 32'\t1484\t18.0\t10.2-25.9\t324\tSemi-arid Kerman\t56° 58'\t30° 15'\t1753.8\t15.6\t6.7-24.6\t142\tArid Yazd\t54° 17'\t31° 54'\t1237.2\t19.2\t11.8-26.0\t61\tArid Results and Discussion: The monthly meteorological data were used as input for the Ref-ET software and monthly reference

  14. Complexity testing techniques for time series data: A comprehensive literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Ling; Lv, Huiling; Yang, Fengmei; Yu, Lean

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A literature review of complexity testing techniques for time series data is provided. • Complexity measurements can generally fall into fractality, methods derived from nonlinear dynamics and entropy. • Different types investigate time series data from different perspectives. • Measures, applications and future studies for each type are presented. - Abstract: Complexity may be one of the most important measurements for analysing time series data; it covers or is at least closely related to different data characteristics within nonlinear system theory. This paper provides a comprehensive literature review examining the complexity testing techniques for time series data. According to different features, the complexity measurements for time series data can be divided into three primary groups, i.e., fractality (mono- or multi-fractality) for self-similarity (or system memorability or long-term persistence), methods derived from nonlinear dynamics (via attractor invariants or diagram descriptions) for attractor properties in phase-space, and entropy (structural or dynamical entropy) for the disorder state of a nonlinear system. These estimations analyse time series dynamics from different perspectives but are closely related to or even dependent on each other at the same time. In particular, a weaker self-similarity, a more complex structure of attractor, and a higher-level disorder state of a system consistently indicate that the observed time series data are at a higher level of complexity. Accordingly, this paper presents a historical tour of the important measures and works for each group, as well as ground-breaking and recent applications and future research directions.

  15. Phenological response of vegetation to upstream river flow in the Heihe Rive basin by time series analysis of MODIS data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jia

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Liquid and solid precipitation is abundant in the high elevation, upper reach of the Heihe River basin in northwestern China. The development of modern irrigation schemes in the middle reach of the basin is taking up an increasing share of fresh water resources, endangering the oasis and traditional irrigation systems in the lower reach. In this study, the response of vegetation in the Ejina Oasis in the lower reach of the Heihe River to the water yield of the upper catchment was analyzed by time series analysis of monthly observations of precipitation in the upper and lower catchment, river streamflow downstream of the modern irrigation schemes and satellite observations of vegetation index. Firstly, remotely sensed NDVI data acquired by Terra-MODIS are used to monitor the vegetation dynamic for a seven years period between 2000 and 2006. Due to cloud-contamination, atmospheric influence and different solar and viewing angles, however, the quality and consistence of time series of remotely sensed NDVI data are degraded. A Fourier Transform method – the Harmonic Analysis of Time Series (HANTS algorithm – is used to reconstruct cloud- and noise-free NDVI time series data from the Terra-MODIS NDVI dataset. Modification is made on HANTS by adding additional parameters to deal with large data gaps in yearly time series in combination with a Temporal-Similarity-Statistics (TSS method developed in this study to seek for initial values for the large gap periods. Secondly, the same Fourier Transform method is used to model time series of the vegetation phenology. The reconstructed cloud-free NDVI time series data are used to study the relationship between the water availability (i.e. the local precipitation and upstream water yield and the evolution of vegetation conditions in Ejina Oasis from 2000 to 2006. Anomalies in precipitation, streamflow, and vegetation index are detected by comparing each year with the average year. The results showed that

  16. Complex dynamic in ecological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter Turchin; Andrew D. Taylor

    1992-01-01

    Although the possibility of complex dynamical behaviors-limit cycles, quasiperiodic oscillations, and aperiodic chaos-has been recognized theoretically, most ecologists are skeptical of their importance in nature. In this paper we develop a methodology for reconstructing endogenous (or deterministic) dynamics from ecological time series. Our method consists of fitting...

  17. Time Series Modelling using Proc Varmax

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Milhøj, Anders

    2007-01-01

    In this paper it will be demonstrated how various time series problems could be met using Proc Varmax. The procedure is rather new and hence new features like cointegration, testing for Granger causality are included, but it also means that more traditional ARIMA modelling as outlined by Box...

  18. SensL B-Series and C-Series silicon photomultipliers for time-of-flight positron emission tomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, K., E-mail: koneill@sensl.com; Jackson, C., E-mail: cjackson@sensl.com

    2015-07-01

    Silicon photomultipliers from SensL are designed for high performance, uniformity and low cost. They demonstrate peak photon detection efficiency of 41% at 420 nm, which is matched to the output spectrum of cerium doped lutetium orthosilicate. Coincidence resolving time of less than 220 ps is demonstrated. New process improvements have lead to the development of C-Series SiPM which reduces the dark noise by over an order of magnitude. In this paper we will show characterization test results which include photon detection efficiency, dark count rate, crosstalk probability, afterpulse probability and coincidence resolving time comparing B-Series to the newest pre-production C-Series. Additionally we will discuss the effect of silicon photomultiplier microcell size on coincidence resolving time allowing the optimal microcell size choice to be made for time of flight positron emission tomography systems.

  19. Kriging Methodology and Its Development in Forecasting Econometric Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Gajdoš

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available One of the approaches for forecasting future values of a time series or unknown spatial data is kriging. The main objective of the paper is to introduce a general scheme of kriging in forecasting econometric time series using a family of linear regression time series models (shortly named as FDSLRM which apply regression not only to a trend but also to a random component of the observed time series. Simultaneously performing a Monte Carlo simulation study with a real electricity consumption dataset in the R computational langure and environment, we investigate the well-known problem of “negative” estimates of variance components when kriging predictions fail. Our following theoretical analysis, including also the modern apparatus of advanced multivariate statistics, gives us the formulation and proof of a general theorem about the explicit form of moments (up to sixth order for a Gaussian time series observation. This result provides a basis for further theoretical and computational research in the kriging methodology development.

  20. Use of Time-Series, ARIMA Designs to Assess Program Efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braden, Jeffery P.; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Illustrates use of time-series designs for determining efficacy of interventions with fictitious data describing drug-abuse prevention program. Discusses problems and procedures associated with time-series data analysis using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models. Example illustrates application of ARIMA analysis for…

  1. ANALYSIS OF YEAR 2002 SEASONAL FOREST DYNAMICS USING TIME SERIES IN SITU LAI MEASUREMENTS AND MODIS LAI SATELLITE PRODUCTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Multitemporal satellite images are the standard basis for regional-scale land-cover (LC) change detection. However, embedded in the data are the confounding effects of vegetation dynamics (phenology). As photosynthetic vegetation progresses through its annual cycle, the spectral ...

  2. An algorithm of Saxena-Easo on fuzzy time series forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadhani, L. C.; Anggraeni, D.; Kamsyakawuni, A.; Hadi, A. F.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a forecast model of Saxena-Easo fuzzy time series prediction to study the prediction of Indonesia inflation rate in 1970-2016. We use MATLAB software to compute this method. The algorithm of Saxena-Easo fuzzy time series doesn’t need stationarity like conventional forecasting method, capable of dealing with the value of time series which are linguistic and has the advantage of reducing the calculation, time and simplifying the calculation process. Generally it’s focus on percentage change as the universe discourse, interval partition and defuzzification. The result indicate that between the actual data and the forecast data are close enough with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 1.5289.

  3. Dissemination of satellite-based river discharge and flood data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettner, A. J.; Brakenridge, G. R.; van Praag, E.; de Groeve, T.; Slayback, D. A.; Cohen, S.

    2014-12-01

    In collaboration with NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center and the European Commission Joint Research Centre, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) daily measures and distributes: 1) river discharges, and 2) near real-time flood extents with a global coverage. Satellite-based passive microwave sensors and hydrological modeling are utilized to establish 'remote-sensing based discharge stations', and observed time series cover 1998 to the present. The advantages over in-situ gauged discharges are: a) easy access to remote or due to political reasons isolated locations, b) relatively low maintenance costs to maintain a continuous observational record, and c) the capability to obtain measurements during floods, hazardous conditions that often impair or destroy in-situ stations. Two MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites provide global flood extent coverage at a spatial resolution of 250m. Cloud cover hampers flood extent detection; therefore we ingest 6 images (the Terra and Aqua images of each day, for three days), in combination with a cloud shadow filter, to provide daily global flood extent updates. The Flood Observatory has always made it a high priority to visualize and share its data and products through its website. Recent collaborative efforts with e.g. GeoSUR have enhanced accessibility of DFO data. A web map service has been implemented to automatically disseminate geo-referenced flood extent products into client-side GIS software. For example, for Latin America and the Caribbean region, the GeoSUR portal now displays current flood extent maps, which can be integrated and visualized with other relevant geographical data. Furthermore, the flood state of satellite-observed river discharge sites are displayed through the portal as well. Additional efforts include implementing Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards to incorporate Water Markup Language (WaterML) data exchange mechanisms to further facilitate the distribution of the satellite

  4. Evolutionary Algorithms for the Detection of Structural Breaks in Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doerr, Benjamin; Fischer, Paul; Hilbert, Astrid

    2013-01-01

    Detecting structural breaks is an essential task for the statistical analysis of time series, for example, for fitting parametric models to it. In short, structural breaks are points in time at which the behavior of the time series changes. Typically, no solid background knowledge of the time...

  5. Search for shot-time growths of flares od cosmic heavy nuclei according to measurement data at ''Prognoz'' satellites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volodichev, N.N.; Savenko, I.A.; Suslov, A.A.

    1983-01-01

    Surch for short-time growths of fluxes of mainly cosmic heavy nuclei with the energy epsilon > or approximately 500 MeV/nucleon according to measurement data at ''Prognoz-2'' and ''Prognoz-3'' satellites is undertaken. Such growths have been recorded during the flights of the first soviet cosmic rockets, spacecraft-satellites, ''Electron'', ''Molnia-1'' satellites. At the ''Prognoz'' satellite such growth have not been observed. Moreover, the 2.1.1974 growth found at the ''Molnia-1'' satellite by the telescope of scintillation and Cherenkov counters has not been recorded by the analogous device at ''Prognoz-3'' satellite. Therefore, the problem on the nature of short-time growths of the heavy nuclei fluxes remains unsolved

  6. On modeling panels of time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractThis paper reviews research issues in modeling panels of time series. Examples of this type of data are annually observed macroeconomic indicators for all countries in the world, daily returns on the individual stocks listed in the S&P500, and the sales records of all items in a

  7. Stochastic models in the DORIS position time series: estimates for IDS contribution to ITRF2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Bogusz, Janusz; Moreaux, Guilhem

    2017-11-01

    This paper focuses on the investigation of the deterministic and stochastic parts of the Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS) weekly time series aligned to the newest release of ITRF2014. A set of 90 stations was divided into three groups depending on when the data were collected at an individual station. To reliably describe the DORIS time series, we employed a mathematical model that included the long-term nonlinear signal, linear trend, seasonal oscillations and a stochastic part, all being estimated with maximum likelihood estimation. We proved that the values of the parameters delivered for DORIS data are strictly correlated with the time span of the observations. The quality of the most recent data has significantly improved. Not only did the seasonal amplitudes decrease over the years, but also, and most importantly, the noise level and its type changed significantly. Among several tested models, the power-law process may be chosen as the preferred one for most of the DORIS data. Moreover, the preferred noise model has changed through the years from an autoregressive process to pure power-law noise with few stations characterised by a positive spectral index. For the latest observations, the medians of the velocity errors were equal to 0.3, 0.3 and 0.4 mm/year, respectively, for the North, East and Up components. In the best cases, a velocity uncertainty of DORIS sites of 0.1 mm/year is achievable when the appropriate coloured noise model is taken into consideration.

  8. Unsupervised Symbolization of Signal Time Series for Extraction of the Embedded Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yue Li

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper formulates an unsupervised algorithm for symbolization of signal time series to capture the embedded dynamic behavior. The key idea is to convert time series of the digital signal into a string of (spatially discrete symbols from which the embedded dynamic information can be extracted in an unsupervised manner (i.e., no requirement for labeling of time series. The main challenges here are: (1 definition of the symbol assignment for the time series; (2 identification of the partitioning segment locations in the signal space of time series; and (3 construction of probabilistic finite-state automata (PFSA from the symbol strings that contain temporal patterns. The reported work addresses these challenges by maximizing the mutual information measures between symbol strings and PFSA states. The proposed symbolization method has been validated by numerical simulation as well as by experimentation in a laboratory environment. Performance of the proposed algorithm has been compared to that of two commonly used algorithms of time series partitioning.

  9. Classification of time-series images using deep convolutional neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatami, Nima; Gavet, Yann; Debayle, Johan

    2018-04-01

    Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) has achieved a great success in image recognition task by automatically learning a hierarchical feature representation from raw data. While the majority of Time-Series Classification (TSC) literature is focused on 1D signals, this paper uses Recurrence Plots (RP) to transform time-series into 2D texture images and then take advantage of the deep CNN classifier. Image representation of time-series introduces different feature types that are not available for 1D signals, and therefore TSC can be treated as texture image recognition task. CNN model also allows learning different levels of representations together with a classifier, jointly and automatically. Therefore, using RP and CNN in a unified framework is expected to boost the recognition rate of TSC. Experimental results on the UCR time-series classification archive demonstrate competitive accuracy of the proposed approach, compared not only to the existing deep architectures, but also to the state-of-the art TSC algorithms.

  10. Long Range Dependence Prognostics for Bearing Vibration Intensity Chaotic Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the chaotic features and typical fractional order characteristics of the bearing vibration intensity time series, a forecasting approach based on long range dependence (LRD is proposed. In order to reveal the internal chaotic properties, vibration intensity time series are reconstructed based on chaos theory in phase-space, the delay time is computed with C-C method and the optimal embedding dimension and saturated correlation dimension are calculated via the Grassberger–Procaccia (G-P method, respectively, so that the chaotic characteristics of vibration intensity time series can be jointly determined by the largest Lyapunov exponent and phase plane trajectory of vibration intensity time series, meanwhile, the largest Lyapunov exponent is calculated by the Wolf method and phase plane trajectory is illustrated using Duffing-Holmes Oscillator (DHO. The Hurst exponent and long range dependence prediction method are proposed to verify the typical fractional order features and improve the prediction accuracy of bearing vibration intensity time series, respectively. Experience shows that the vibration intensity time series have chaotic properties and the LRD prediction method is better than the other prediction methods (largest Lyapunov, auto regressive moving average (ARMA and BP neural network (BPNN model in prediction accuracy and prediction performance, which provides a new approach for running tendency predictions for rotating machinery and provide some guidance value to the engineering practice.

  11. Critical values for unit root tests in seasonal time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); B. Hobijn (Bart)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we present tables with critical values for a variety of tests for seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots in seasonal time series. We consider (extensions of) the Hylleberg et al. and Osborn et al. test procedures. These extensions concern time series with increasing seasonal

  12. Estimations of the Global Distribution and Time Series of UV Noontime Irradiance (305, 310, 324, 380 nm, and Erythemal) from TOMS and SeaWiFS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, J.

    2004-01-01

    The amount of UV irradiance reaching the Earth's surface is estimated from the measured cloud reflectivity, ozone, aerosol amounts, and surface reflectivity time series from 1980 to 1992 and 1997 to 2000 to estimate changes that have occurred over a 21-year period. Recent analysis of the TOMS data shows that there has been an apparent increase in reflectivity (decrease in W) in the Southern Hemisphere that is related to a calibration error in EP-TOMS. Data from the well-calibrated SeaWiFS satellite instrument have been used to correct the EP-TOMS reflectivity and UV time series. After correction, some of the local trend features seen in the N7 time series (1980 to 1992) have been continued in the combined time series, but the overall zonal average and global trends have changed. In addition to correcting the EP-TOMS radiance calibration, the use of SeaWiFS cloud data permits estimation of UV irradiance at higher spatial resolution (1 to 4 km) than is available from TOMS (100 km) under the assumption that ozone is slowly varying over a scale of 100 km. The key results include a continuing decrease in cloud cover over Europe and North America with a corresponding increase in UV and a decrease in UV irradiance near Antarctica.

  13. Classification of time series patterns from complex dynamic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schryver, J.C.; Rao, N.

    1998-07-01

    An increasing availability of high-performance computing and data storage media at decreasing cost is making possible the proliferation of large-scale numerical databases and data warehouses. Numeric warehousing enterprises on the order of hundreds of gigabytes to terabytes are a reality in many fields such as finance, retail sales, process systems monitoring, biomedical monitoring, surveillance and transportation. Large-scale databases are becoming more accessible to larger user communities through the internet, web-based applications and database connectivity. Consequently, most researchers now have access to a variety of massive datasets. This trend will probably only continue to grow over the next several years. Unfortunately, the availability of integrated tools to explore, analyze and understand the data warehoused in these archives is lagging far behind the ability to gain access to the same data. In particular, locating and identifying patterns of interest in numerical time series data is an increasingly important problem for which there are few available techniques. Temporal pattern recognition poses many interesting problems in classification, segmentation, prediction, diagnosis and anomaly detection. This research focuses on the problem of classification or characterization of numerical time series data. Highway vehicles and their drivers are examples of complex dynamic systems (CDS) which are being used by transportation agencies for field testing to generate large-scale time series datasets. Tools for effective analysis of numerical time series in databases generated by highway vehicle systems are not yet available, or have not been adapted to the target problem domain. However, analysis tools from similar domains may be adapted to the problem of classification of numerical time series data.

  14. Sensitivity analysis of machine-learning models of hydrologic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis traditionally has been applied to assessing model response to perturbations in model parameters, where the parameters are those model input variables adjusted during calibration. Unlike physics-based models where parameters represent real phenomena, the equivalent of parameters for machine-learning models are simply mathematical "knobs" that are automatically adjusted during training/testing/verification procedures. Thus the challenge of extracting knowledge of hydrologic system functionality from machine-learning models lies in their very nature, leading to the label "black box." Sensitivity analysis of the forcing-response behavior of machine-learning models, however, can provide understanding of how the physical phenomena represented by model inputs affect the physical phenomena represented by model outputs.As part of a previous study, hybrid spectral-decomposition artificial neural network (ANN) models were developed to simulate the observed behavior of hydrologic response contained in multidecadal datasets of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow. Model inputs used moving window averages (MWA) to represent various frequencies and frequency-band components of time series of rainfall and groundwater use. Using these forcing time series, the MWA-ANN models were trained to predict time series of lake water level, groundwater level, and spring flow at 51 sites in central Florida, USA. A time series of sensitivities for each MWA-ANN model was produced by perturbing forcing time-series and computing the change in response time-series per unit change in perturbation. Variations in forcing-response sensitivities are evident between types (lake, groundwater level, or spring), spatially (among sites of the same type), and temporally. Two generally common characteristics among sites are more uniform sensitivities to rainfall over time and notable increases in sensitivities to groundwater usage during significant drought periods.

  15. Fractal analysis and nonlinear forecasting of indoor 222Rn time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pausch, G.; Bossew, P.; Hofmann, W.; Steger, F.

    1998-01-01

    Fractal analyses of indoor 222 Rn time series were performed using different chaos theory based measurements such as time delay method, Hurst's rescaled range analysis, capacity (fractal) dimension, and Lyapunov exponent. For all time series we calculated only positive Lyapunov exponents which is a hint to chaos, while the Hurst exponents were well below 0.5, indicating antipersistent behaviour (past trends tend to reverse in the future). These time series were also analyzed with a nonlinear prediction method which allowed an estimation of the embedding dimensions with some restrictions, limiting the prediction to about three relative time steps. (orig.)

  16. Koopman Operator Framework for Time Series Modeling and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surana, Amit

    2018-01-01

    We propose an interdisciplinary framework for time series classification, forecasting, and anomaly detection by combining concepts from Koopman operator theory, machine learning, and linear systems and control theory. At the core of this framework is nonlinear dynamic generative modeling of time series using the Koopman operator which is an infinite-dimensional but linear operator. Rather than working with the underlying nonlinear model, we propose two simpler linear representations or model forms based on Koopman spectral properties. We show that these model forms are invariants of the generative model and can be readily identified directly from data using techniques for computing Koopman spectral properties without requiring the explicit knowledge of the generative model. We also introduce different notions of distances on the space of such model forms which is essential for model comparison/clustering. We employ the space of Koopman model forms equipped with distance in conjunction with classical machine learning techniques to develop a framework for automatic feature generation for time series classification. The forecasting/anomaly detection framework is based on using Koopman model forms along with classical linear systems and control approaches. We demonstrate the proposed framework for human activity classification, and for time series forecasting/anomaly detection in power grid application.

  17. Testing for intracycle determinism in pseudoperiodic time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Mara C S; Mendes, Eduardo M A M; Aguirre, Luis A

    2008-06-01

    A determinism test is proposed based on the well-known method of the surrogate data. Assuming predictability to be a signature of determinism, the proposed method checks for intracycle (e.g., short-term) determinism in the pseudoperiodic time series for which standard methods of surrogate analysis do not apply. The approach presented is composed of two steps. First, the data are preprocessed to reduce the effects of seasonal and trend components. Second, standard tests of surrogate analysis can then be used. The determinism test is applied to simulated and experimental pseudoperiodic time series and the results show the applicability of the proposed test.

  18. Time series analysis and its applications with R examples

    CERN Document Server

    Shumway, Robert H

    2017-01-01

    The fourth edition of this popular graduate textbook, like its predecessors, presents a balanced and comprehensive treatment of both time and frequency domain methods with accompanying theory. Numerous examples using nontrivial data illustrate solutions to problems such as discovering natural and anthropogenic climate change, evaluating pain perception experiments using functional magnetic resonance imaging, and monitoring a nuclear test ban treaty. The book is designed as a textbook for graduate level students in the physical, biological, and social sciences and as a graduate level text in statistics. Some parts may also serve as an undergraduate introductory course. Theory and methodology are separated to allow presentations on different levels. In addition to coverage of classical methods of time series regression, ARIMA models, spectral analysis and state-space models, the text includes modern developments including categorical time series analysis, multivariate spectral methods, long memory series, nonli...

  19. The rotational elements of Mars and its satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, R. A.; Konopliv, A. S.; Park, R. S.; Folkner, W. M.

    2018-03-01

    The International Astronomical Union (IAU) defines planet and satellite coordinate systems relative to their axis of rotation and the angle about that axis. The rotational elements of the bodies are the right ascension and declination of the rotation axis in the International Celestial Reference Frame and the rotation angle, W, measured easterly along the body's equator. The IAU specifies the location of the body's prime meridian by providing a value for W at epoch J2000. We provide new trigonometric series representations of the rotational elements of Mars and its satellites, Phobos and Deimos. The series for Mars are from a least squares fit to the rotation model used to orient the Martian gravity field. The series for the satellites are from a least squares fit to rotation models developed in accordance with IAU conventions from recent ephemerides.

  20. A KST framework for correlation network construction from time series signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Jin-Peng; Gu, Quan; Zhu, Ying; Zhang, Ping

    2018-04-01

    A KST (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and T statistic) method is used for construction of a correlation network based on the fluctuation of each time series within the multivariate time signals. In this method, each time series is divided equally into multiple segments, and the maximal data fluctuation in each segment is calculated by a KST change detection procedure. Connections between each time series are derived from the data fluctuation matrix, and are used for construction of the fluctuation correlation network (FCN). The method was tested with synthetic simulations and the result was compared with those from using KS or T only for detection of data fluctuation. The novelty of this study is that the correlation analyses was based on the data fluctuation in each segment of each time series rather than on the original time signals, which would be more meaningful for many real world applications and for analysis of large-scale time signals where prior knowledge is uncertain.

  1. Multivariate stochastic analysis for Monthly hydrological time series at Cuyahoga River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    zhang, L.

    2011-12-01

    Copula has become a very powerful statistic and stochastic methodology in case of the multivariate analysis in Environmental and Water resources Engineering. In recent years, the popular one-parameter Archimedean copulas, e.g. Gumbel-Houggard copula, Cook-Johnson copula, Frank copula, the meta-elliptical copula, e.g. Gaussian Copula, Student-T copula, etc. have been applied in multivariate hydrological analyses, e.g. multivariate rainfall (rainfall intensity, duration and depth), flood (peak discharge, duration and volume), and drought analyses (drought length, mean and minimum SPI values, and drought mean areal extent). Copula has also been applied in the flood frequency analysis at the confluences of river systems by taking into account the dependence among upstream gauge stations rather than by using the hydrological routing technique. In most of the studies above, the annual time series have been considered as stationary signal which the time series have been assumed as independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables. But in reality, hydrological time series, especially the daily and monthly hydrological time series, cannot be considered as i.i.d. random variables due to the periodicity existed in the data structure. Also, the stationary assumption is also under question due to the Climate Change and Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change in the fast years. To this end, it is necessary to revaluate the classic approach for the study of hydrological time series by relaxing the stationary assumption by the use of nonstationary approach. Also as to the study of the dependence structure for the hydrological time series, the assumption of same type of univariate distribution also needs to be relaxed by adopting the copula theory. In this paper, the univariate monthly hydrological time series will be studied through the nonstationary time series analysis approach. The dependence structure of the multivariate monthly hydrological time series will be

  2. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  3. Analysis of complex time series using refined composite multiscale entropy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Shuen-De; Wu, Chiu-Wen; Lin, Shiou-Gwo; Lee, Kung-Yen; Peng, Chung-Kang

    2014-01-01

    Multiscale entropy (MSE) is an effective algorithm for measuring the complexity of a time series that has been applied in many fields successfully. However, MSE may yield an inaccurate estimation of entropy or induce undefined entropy because the coarse-graining procedure reduces the length of a time series considerably at large scales. Composite multiscale entropy (CMSE) was recently proposed to improve the accuracy of MSE, but it does not resolve undefined entropy. Here we propose a refined composite multiscale entropy (RCMSE) to improve CMSE. For short time series analyses, we demonstrate that RCMSE increases the accuracy of entropy estimation and reduces the probability of inducing undefined entropy.

  4. Compounding approach for univariate time series with nonstationary variances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Rudi; Barkhofen, Sonja; Guhr, Thomas; Stöckmann, Hans-Jürgen; Kuhl, Ulrich

    2015-12-01

    A defining feature of nonstationary systems is the time dependence of their statistical parameters. Measured time series may exhibit Gaussian statistics on short time horizons, due to the central limit theorem. The sample statistics for long time horizons, however, averages over the time-dependent variances. To model the long-term statistical behavior, we compound the local distribution with the distribution of its parameters. Here, we consider two concrete, but diverse, examples of such nonstationary systems: the turbulent air flow of a fan and a time series of foreign exchange rates. Our main focus is to empirically determine the appropriate parameter distribution for the compounding approach. To this end, we extract the relevant time scales by decomposing the time signals into windows and determine the distribution function of the thus obtained local variances.

  5. MODIS Land Surface Temperature time series reconstruction with Open Source GIS: A new quality of temperature based ecological indicators in complex terrain (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neteler, M.

    2009-12-01

    In complex terrain like the Central European Alps, meteorological stations and ground surveys are usually sparsely and/or irregularly distributed and often favor agricultural areas. The application of traditional geospatial interpolation methods in complex terrain remains challenging and difficult to optimize. An alternative data source is remote sensing: high temporal resolution satellite data are continuously gaining interest since these data are intrinsically spatialized: continuous field of observations is obtained with this tool instead of point data. The increasing data availability suggests using these time series as surrogate to certain measures from meteorological stations, especially for temperature and related derivatives. The Terra and Aqua satellites with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provide four Earth coverages per day at various resolutions. We analyzed 8 years (2000 to 2008) of daily land surface temperature (LST) data from MODIS in an area located in the Southern European Alps. A method was developed to reconstruct incomplete maps (cloud coverage, invalid pixels) based on image statistics and on a model that includes additional GIS layers. The original LST map resolution of 1000m could be improved to 200m in this process which renders the resulting LST maps applicable at regional scales. We propose the use of these reconstructed daily LST time series as surrogate to meteorological observations especially in the area of epidemiological modeling where data are typically aggregated to decadal indicators. From these daily LST map series, derivable indicators include: 1) temperatures minima, means and maxima for annual/monthly/decadal periods; 2) unusual hot summers;3) the calculation of growing degree days, and 4) spring temperature increase or autumnal temperature decrease. Since more than 8 years of MODIS LST data are available today, even preliminary gradients can be extracted to assess multi-annual temperature trends

  6. Multi-Satellite Observation Scheduling for Large Area Disaster Emergency Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, X. N.; Tang, H.; Wu, L. X.

    2018-04-01

    an optimal imaging plan, plays a key role in coordinating multiple satellites to monitor the disaster area. In the paper, to generate imaging plan dynamically according to the disaster relief, we propose a dynamic satellite task scheduling method for large area disaster response. First, an initial robust scheduling scheme is generated by a robust satellite scheduling model in which both the profit and the robustness of the schedule are simultaneously maximized. Then, we use a multi-objective optimization model to obtain a series of decomposing schemes. Based on the initial imaging plan, we propose a mixed optimizing algorithm named HA_NSGA-II to allocate the decomposing results thus to obtain an adjusted imaging schedule. A real disaster scenario, i.e., 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, is revisited in terms of rapid response using satellite resources and used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method with state-of-the-art approaches. We conclude that our satellite scheduling model can optimize the usage of satellite resources so as to obtain images in disaster response in a more timely and efficient manner.

  7. Investigation of Noises in GPS Time Series: Case Study on Epn Weekly Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klos, Anna; Bogusz, Janusz; Figurski, Mariusz; Kosek, Wieslaw; Gruszczynski, Maciej

    2014-05-01

    The noises in GPS time series are stated to be described the best by the combination of white (Gaussian) and power-law processes. They are mainly the effect of mismodelled satellite orbits, Earth orientation parameters, atmospheric effects, antennae phase centre effects, or of monument instability. Due to the fact, that velocities of permanent stations define the kinematic reference frame, they have to fulfil the requirement of being stable at 0.1 mm/yr. The previously performed researches showed, that the wrong assumption of noise model leads to the underestimation of velocities and their uncertainties from 2 up to even 11, especially in the Up direction. This presentation focuses on more than 200 EPN (EUREF Permanent Network) stations from the area of Europe with various monument types (concrete pillars, buildings, metal masts, with or without domes, placed on the ground or on the rock) and coordinates of weekly changes (GPS weeks 0834-1459). The topocentric components (North, East, Up) in ITRF2005 which come from the EPN Re-Processing made by the Military University of Technology Local Analysis Centre (MUT LAC) were processed with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) using CATS software. We have assumed the existence of few combinations of noise models (these are: white, flicker and random walk noise with integer spectral indices and power-law noise models with fractional spectral indices) and investigated which of them EPN weekly time series are likely to follow. The results show, that noises in GPS time series are described the best by the combination of white and flicker noise model. It is strictly related to the so-called common mode error (CME) that is spatially correlated error being one of the dominant error source in GPS solutions. We have assumed CME as spatially uniform, what was a good approximation for stations located hundreds of kilometres one to another. Its removal with spatial filtering reduces the amplitudes of white and flicker noise by a

  8. Crop Dominance Mapping with IRS-P6 and MODIS 250-m Time Series Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murali Krishna Gumma

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an approach to accurately separate out and quantify crop dominance areas in the major command area in the Krishna River Basin. Classification was performed using IRS-P6 (Indian Remote Sensing Satellite, series P6 and MODIS eight-day time series remote sensing images with a spatial resolution of 23.6 m, 250 m for the year 2005. Temporal variations in the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index pattern obtained in crop dominance classes enables a demarcation between long duration crops and short duration crops. The NDVI pattern was found to be more consistent in long duration crops than in short duration crops due to the continuity of the water supply. Surface water availability, on the other hand, was dependent on canal water release, which affected the time of crop sowing and growth stages, which was, in turn, reflected in the NDVI pattern. The identified crop-wise classes were tested and verified using ground-truth data and state-level census data. The accuracy assessment was performed based on ground-truth data through the error matrix method, with accuracies from 67% to 100% for individual crop dominance classes, with an overall accuracy of 79% for all classes. The derived major crop land areas were highly correlated with the sub-national statistics with R2 values of 87% at the mandal (sub-district level for 2005–2006. These results suggest that the methods, approaches, algorithms and datasets used in this study are ideal for rapid, accurate and large-scale mapping of paddy rice, as well as for generating their statistics over large areas. This study demonstrates that IRS-P6 23.6-m one-time data fusion with MODIS 250-m time series data is very useful for identifying crop type, the source of irrigation water and, in the case of surface water irrigation, the way in which it is applied. The results from this study have assisted in improving surface water and groundwater irrigated areas of the command area and also

  9. Tools for Generating Useful Time-series Data from PhenoCam Images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milliman, T. E.; Friedl, M. A.; Frolking, S.; Hufkens, K.; Klosterman, S.; Richardson, A. D.; Toomey, M. P.

    2012-12-01

    The PhenoCam project (http://phenocam.unh.edu/) is tasked with acquiring, processing, and archiving digital repeat photography to be used for scientific studies of vegetation phenological processes. Over the past 5 years the PhenoCam project has collected over 2 million time series images for a total over 700 GB of image data. Several papers have been published describing derived "vegetation indices" (such as green-chromatic-coordinate or gcc) which can be compared to standard measures such as NDVI or EVI. Imagery from our archive is available for download but converting series of images for a particular camera into useful scientific data, while simple in principle, is complicated by a variety of factors. Cameras are often exposed to harsh weather conditions (high wind, rain, ice, snow pile up), which result in images where the field of view (FOV) is partially obscured or completely blocked for periods of time. The FOV can also change for other reasons (mount failures, tower maintenance, etc.) Some of the relatively inexpensive cameras that are being used can also temporarily lose color balance or exposure controls resulting in loss of imagery. All these factors negatively influence the automated analysis of the image time series making this a non-trivial task. Here we discuss the challenges of processing PhenoCam image time-series for vegetation monitoring and the associated data management tasks. We describe our current processing framework and a simple standardized output format for the resulting time-series data. The time-series data in this format will be generated for specific "regions of interest" (ROI's) for each of the cameras in the PhenoCam network. This standardized output (which will be updated daily) can be considered 'the pulse' of a particular camera and will provide a default phenological dynamic for said camera. The time-series data can also be viewed as a higher level product which can be used to generate "vegetation indices", like gcc, for

  10. Multiple Time Series Ising Model for Financial Market Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose an Ising model which simulates multiple financial time series. Our model introduces the interaction which couples to spins of other systems. Simulations from our model show that time series exhibit the volatility clustering that is often observed in the real financial markets. Furthermore we also find non-zero cross correlations between the volatilities from our model. Thus our model can simulate stock markets where volatilities of stocks are mutually correlated

  11. Combined Use of Multi-Temporal Optical and Radar Satellite Images for Grassland Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline Dusseux

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to assess the ability of optical images, SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar images and the combination of both types of data to discriminate between grasslands and crops in agricultural areas where cloud cover is very high most of the time, which restricts the use of visible and near-infrared satellite data. We compared the performances of variables extracted from four optical and five SAR satellite images with high/very high spatial resolutions acquired during the growing season. A vegetation index, namely the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, and two biophysical variables, the LAI (Leaf Area Index and the fCOVER (fraction of Vegetation Cover were computed using optical time series and polarization (HH, VV, HV, VH. The polarization ratio and polarimetric decomposition (Freeman–Durden and Cloude–Pottier were calculated using SAR time series. Then, variables derived from optical, SAR and both types of remotely-sensed data were successively classified using the Support Vector Machine (SVM technique. The results show that the classification accuracy of SAR variables is higher than those using optical data (0.98 compared to 0.81. They also highlight that the combination of optical and SAR time series data is of prime interest to discriminate grasslands from crops, allowing an improved classification accuracy.

  12. Global, Persistent, Real-time Multi-sensor Automated Satellite Image Analysis and Crop Forecasting in Commercial Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumby, S. P.; Warren, M. S.; Keisler, R.; Chartrand, R.; Skillman, S.; Franco, E.; Kontgis, C.; Moody, D.; Kelton, T.; Mathis, M.

    2016-12-01

    Cloud computing, combined with recent advances in machine learning for computer vision, is enabling understanding of the world at a scale and at a level of space and time granularity never before feasible. Multi-decadal Earth remote sensing datasets at the petabyte scale (8×10^15 bits) are now available in commercial cloud, and new satellite constellations will generate daily global coverage at a few meters per pixel. Public and commercial satellite observations now provide a wide range of sensor modalities, from traditional visible/infrared to dual-polarity synthetic aperture radar (SAR). This provides the opportunity to build a continuously updated map of the world supporting the academic community and decision-makers in government, finanace and industry. We report on work demonstrating country-scale agricultural forecasting, and global-scale land cover/land, use mapping using a range of public and commercial satellite imagery. We describe processing over a petabyte of compressed raw data from 2.8 quadrillion pixels (2.8 petapixels) acquired by the US Landsat and MODIS programs over the past 40 years. Using commodity cloud computing resources, we convert the imagery to a calibrated, georeferenced, multiresolution tiled format suited for machine-learning analysis. We believe ours is the first application to process, in less than a day, on generally available resources, over a petabyte of scientific image data. We report on work combining this imagery with time-series SAR collected by ESA Sentinel 1. We report on work using this reprocessed dataset for experiments demonstrating country-scale food production monitoring, an indicator for famine early warning. We apply remote sensing science and machine learning algorithms to detect and classify agricultural crops and then estimate crop yields and detect threats to food security (e.g., flooding, drought). The software platform and analysis methodology also support monitoring water resources, forests and other general

  13. Time Series Modelling of Syphilis Incidence in China from 2005 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xingyu; Zhang, Tao; Pei, Jiao; Liu, Yuanyuan; Li, Xiaosong; Medrano-Gracia, Pau

    2016-01-01

    The infection rate of syphilis in China has increased dramatically in recent decades, becoming a serious public health concern. Early prediction of syphilis is therefore of great importance for heath planning and management. In this paper, we analyzed surveillance time series data for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis in mainland China from 2005 to 2012. Seasonality and long-term trend were explored with decomposition methods. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used to fit a univariate time series model of syphilis incidence. A separate multi-variable time series for each syphilis type was also tested using an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARIMAX). The syphilis incidence rates have increased three-fold from 2005 to 2012. All syphilis time series showed strong seasonality and increasing long-term trend. Both ARIMA and ARIMAX models fitted and estimated syphilis incidence well. All univariate time series showed highest goodness-of-fit results with the ARIMA(0,0,1)×(0,1,1) model. Time series analysis was an effective tool for modelling the historical and future incidence of syphilis in China. The ARIMAX model showed superior performance than the ARIMA model for the modelling of syphilis incidence. Time series correlations existed between the models for primary, secondary, tertiary, congenital and latent syphilis.

  14. The DTU13 MSS (Mean Sea Surface) and MDT (Mean Dynamic Topography) from 20 Years of Satellite Altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Stenseng, Lars

    2015-01-01

    The DTU13MSS is the latest release of the global high resolution mean sea surface (MSS) from DTU Space. The new MSS is based on multi-mission satellite altimetry from 10 different satellites. Three major advances have been made in order to release the new MSS. The time series have been extended t...

  15. FTSPlot: fast time series visualization for large datasets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Riss

    Full Text Available The analysis of electrophysiological recordings often involves visual inspection of time series data to locate specific experiment epochs, mask artifacts, and verify the results of signal processing steps, such as filtering or spike detection. Long-term experiments with continuous data acquisition generate large amounts of data. Rapid browsing through these massive datasets poses a challenge to conventional data plotting software because the plotting time increases proportionately to the increase in the volume of data. This paper presents FTSPlot, which is a visualization concept for large-scale time series datasets using techniques from the field of high performance computer graphics, such as hierarchic level of detail and out-of-core data handling. In a preprocessing step, time series data, event, and interval annotations are converted into an optimized data format, which then permits fast, interactive visualization. The preprocessing step has a computational complexity of O(n x log(N; the visualization itself can be done with a complexity of O(1 and is therefore independent of the amount of data. A demonstration prototype has been implemented and benchmarks show that the technology is capable of displaying large amounts of time series data, event, and interval annotations lag-free with < 20 ms ms. The current 64-bit implementation theoretically supports datasets with up to 2(64 bytes, on the x86_64 architecture currently up to 2(48 bytes are supported, and benchmarks have been conducted with 2(40 bytes/1 TiB or 1.3 x 10(11 double precision samples. The presented software is freely available and can be included as a Qt GUI component in future software projects, providing a standard visualization method for long-term electrophysiological experiments.

  16. Normalization methods in time series of platelet function assays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Poucke, Sven; Zhang, Zhongheng; Roest, Mark; Vukicevic, Milan; Beran, Maud; Lauwereins, Bart; Zheng, Ming-Hua; Henskens, Yvonne; Lancé, Marcus; Marcus, Abraham

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Platelet function can be quantitatively assessed by specific assays such as light-transmission aggregometry, multiple-electrode aggregometry measuring the response to adenosine diphosphate (ADP), arachidonic acid, collagen, and thrombin-receptor activating peptide and viscoelastic tests such as rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM). The task of extracting meaningful statistical and clinical information from high-dimensional data spaces in temporal multivariate clinical data represented in multivariate time series is complex. Building insightful visualizations for multivariate time series demands adequate usage of normalization techniques. In this article, various methods for data normalization (z-transformation, range transformation, proportion transformation, and interquartile range) are presented and visualized discussing the most suited approach for platelet function data series. Normalization was calculated per assay (test) for all time points and per time point for all tests. Interquartile range, range transformation, and z-transformation demonstrated the correlation as calculated by the Spearman correlation test, when normalized per assay (test) for all time points. When normalizing per time point for all tests, no correlation could be abstracted from the charts as was the case when using all data as 1 dataset for normalization. PMID:27428217

  17. Development and application of a modified dynamic time warping algorithm (DTW-S) to analyses of primate brain expression time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yuan; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe; Ni, Shengyu; Xu, Augix Guohua; Tang, Lin; Vingron, Martin; Somel, Mehmet; Khaitovich, Philipp

    2011-08-18

    Comparing biological time series data across different conditions, or different specimens, is a common but still challenging task. Algorithms aligning two time series represent a valuable tool for such comparisons. While many powerful computation tools for time series alignment have been developed, they do not provide significance estimates for time shift measurements. Here, we present an extended version of the original DTW algorithm that allows us to determine the significance of time shift estimates in time series alignments, the DTW-Significance (DTW-S) algorithm. The DTW-S combines important properties of the original algorithm and other published time series alignment tools: DTW-S calculates the optimal alignment for each time point of each gene, it uses interpolated time points for time shift estimation, and it does not require alignment of the time-series end points. As a new feature, we implement a simulation procedure based on parameters estimated from real time series data, on a series-by-series basis, allowing us to determine the false positive rate (FPR) and the significance of the estimated time shift values. We assess the performance of our method using simulation data and real expression time series from two published primate brain expression datasets. Our results show that this method can provide accurate and robust time shift estimates for each time point on a gene-by-gene basis. Using these estimates, we are able to uncover novel features of the biological processes underlying human brain development and maturation. The DTW-S provides a convenient tool for calculating accurate and robust time shift estimates at each time point for each gene, based on time series data. The estimates can be used to uncover novel biological features of the system being studied. The DTW-S is freely available as an R package TimeShift at http://www.picb.ac.cn/Comparative/data.html.

  18. Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldroyd Giles ED

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and

  19. Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

    2011-06-24

    A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time

  20. hctsa: A Computational Framework for Automated Time-Series Phenotyping Using Massive Feature Extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulcher, Ben D; Jones, Nick S

    2017-11-22

    Phenotype measurements frequently take the form of time series, but we currently lack a systematic method for relating these complex data streams to scientifically meaningful outcomes, such as relating the movement dynamics of organisms to their genotype or measurements of brain dynamics of a patient to their disease diagnosis. Previous work addressed this problem by comparing implementations of thousands of diverse scientific time-series analysis methods in an approach termed highly comparative time-series analysis. Here, we introduce hctsa, a software tool for applying this methodological approach to data. hctsa includes an architecture for computing over 7,700 time-series features and a suite of analysis and visualization algorithms to automatically select useful and interpretable time-series features for a given application. Using exemplar applications to high-throughput phenotyping experiments, we show how hctsa allows researchers to leverage decades of time-series research to quantify and understand informative structure in time-series data. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.