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Sample records for sandra postel predicts

  1. Predicting Future Information Resource Utilization Under Conditions of Scarcity: The First Cohort Study in Health Sciences Librarianship. A review of: Postell, William Dosité. “Further Comments on the Mathematical Analysis of Evaluating Scientific Journals.” Bulletin of the Medical Library Association 34.2 (1946: 107-9.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan D. Eldredge

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective – To predict future use of journal titles for making subscription decisions.Design – Retrospective cohort study.Setting – Louisiana State University School of Medicine Library in New Orleans.Subjects – All library users, estimated to consist of primarily faculty members or their designees such as research assistants.Methods – Estelle Brodman’s previous citation analysis and reputational analysis (1944 that produced a list of eleven top-ranked physiology journal titles served as the catalyst for Postell’s retrospective cohort study. Postell compiled data on all checkouts for these specific eleven journal titles in his library for the years 1939 through approximately 1945.Main Results – Postell performed a Spearman rank-difference test on the rankings produced from his own circulation use data in order to compare it against journal title rankings produced from three other sources: (1 citation analysis from the references found in the Annual Review of Physiology based upon a system pioneered in 1927 by Gross and Gross; (2 three leading national physiology journals; and, (3 a reputational analysis list of top-ranked journals provided by the faculty members at the Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons Department of Physiology. Postell found a relatively high correlation (.755, with 1.000 equaling a perfect correlation between his retrospective cohort usage data and the reputational analysis list of top-ranked journals generated by the Columbia faculty members. The two citation analyses performed by Brodman did not correlate as highly with Postell’s results. Conclusion – Brodman previously had questioned the use of citation analysis for journal subscription purchase decisions. Postell’s retrospective cohort study produced further evidence against basing subscription purchases on citation analysis. Postell noted that the citation analysis method “cannot always be relied upon as a valid criterion” for

  2. Interview with Sandra Thompson.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chiung-chih

    1994-01-01

    Presents an interview of Sandra Thompson on various topics relating to the Chinese language. The interview touches on conversational data on Chinese, the lack of morphological complexity in Mandarin Chinese, and the development of Chinese functionalism. (12 references) (CK)

  3. Kaliningradi biennaal / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    IX rahvusvaheline graafikabiennaal "Kaliningrad-Königsberg 2008" Kaliningradi kunstigaleriis 15. IX-15. XI. Eesti väljapanek (kuraator Eha Komissarov, kujundaja Marko Nautras, osalejad: Jaanika Okk, Kaarel Kütas, Lauri Koppel, Gerda Märtens, Raul Meel, Lembe Ruben, HULA, Villem Jahu, Tiiu Pirsko, Mati Veermets, Sandra Jõgeva) sai ekspositsioonipreemia. Grand prix - Paulis Liepa, I preemia - Olrik Kohlhoff, II - Dominica Sadowska, III - Raffael Rheinsberg, eripreemia - Markus Lampinen

  4. Kaliningradi biennaal / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    IX rahvusvaheline graafikabiennaal "Kaliningrad-Königsberg 2008" Kaliningradi kunstigaleriis 15. IX-15. XI. Eesti väljapanek (kuraator Eha Komissarov, kujundaja Marko Nautras, osalejad: Jaanika Okk, Kaarel Kütas, Lauri Koppel, Gerda Märtens, Raul Meel, Lembe Ruben, HULA, Villem Jahu, Tiiu Pirsko, Mati Veermets, Sandra Jõgeva) sai ekspositsioonipreemia. Grand prix - Paulis Liepa, I preemia - Olrik Kohlhoff, II - Dominica Sadowska, III - Raffael Rheinsberg, eripreemia - Markus Lampinen

  5. Läbipaistva saunaga Austraalias / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2010-01-01

    Kunstnike grupp Art Container osales Brisbane'i teatrifestivalil (4.-25. sept. 2010) interaktiivse etenduse ja saunainstallatsiooniga "Kümblejad" (autorid Tanel Saar, Erik Alalooga, Sandra Jõgeva, Janno Bergmann, Hans-Gunter Lock)

  6. Läbipaistva saunaga Austraalias / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2010-01-01

    Kunstnike grupp Art Container osales Brisbane'i teatrifestivalil (4.-25. sept. 2010) interaktiivse etenduse ja saunainstallatsiooniga "Kümblejad" (autorid Tanel Saar, Erik Alalooga, Sandra Jõgeva, Janno Bergmann, Hans-Gunter Lock)

  7. Battling Machismo in the Poetry and Prose of Sandra Cisneros.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breshears, Russell D.

    Sandra Cisneros is giving a voice to farm workers, migrant workers, and Latinos living in the inner cities across the United States in poems and short stories that call attention to gender, class, and race issues that many would prefer to ignore. While her women protagonists challenge destructive "machismo," which takes the form of…

  8. Alytuse biennaal kui kaitsepolügon / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2007-01-01

    Leedus Alytuse väikelinnas 20.-26.08.2007 toimunud eksperimentaalkunsti festivalist. II Alytuse biennaali korraldaja Mantas Kazakevicius, osalejad Inglismaalt, Tšehhist, Iirimaalt, Madalmaadest, Lätist, Leedust ja Eestist (Erik Alalooga, Ville Karel Viirelaid ja Sandra Jõgeva)

  9. Ellujäämiskursus / interv. Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2008-01-01

    Non Grata Kunstikonteineris kuni 17. XI näitus "Dekonstruktsioon/Rekonstruktsioon", Orion Maxtedi ja Tanel Saare workshop'i jäädvustus. Workship'is osalesid performance'i-kunstnikud Beth Greenhalgh, Samuel Hasler, Yoko Ishiguro, maalikunstnik Josephine Wood, helikunstnik Simon Whetham ja Sandra Jõgeva

  10. Alytuse biennaal kui kaitsepolügon / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2007-01-01

    Leedus Alytuse väikelinnas 20.-26.08.2007 toimunud eksperimentaalkunsti festivalist. II Alytuse biennaali korraldaja Mantas Kazakevicius, osalejad Inglismaalt, Tšehhist, Iirimaalt, Madalmaadest, Lätist, Leedust ja Eestist (Erik Alalooga, Ville Karel Viirelaid ja Sandra Jõgeva)

  11. Ellujäämiskursus / interv. Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2008-01-01

    Non Grata Kunstikonteineris kuni 17. XI näitus "Dekonstruktsioon/Rekonstruktsioon", Orion Maxtedi ja Tanel Saare workshop'i jäädvustus. Workship'is osalesid performance'i-kunstnikud Beth Greenhalgh, Samuel Hasler, Yoko Ishiguro, maalikunstnik Josephine Wood, helikunstnik Simon Whetham ja Sandra Jõgeva

  12. 'Miss Frances', 'Miss Gail' and 'Miss Sandra' Crapemyrtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, announces the release to nurserymen of three new crapemyrtle cultivars named 'Miss Gail', 'Miss Frances', and 'Miss Sandra'. ‘Miss Gail’ resulted from a cross-pollination between ‘Catawba’ as the female parent and ‘Arapaho’ ...

  13. Malle Leisi ja Sandra Jõgeva kontrastvärvides perepilt / Malle Leis, Sandra Jõgeva ; intervjueerinud Tanel Veenre

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Leis, Malle, 1940-

    2010-01-01

    Intervjuu 9. juulil 70. sünnipäeva tähistanud maalikunstniku ja graafiku Malle Leisi ning tema tütre, kunstniku ja kirjaniku Sandra Jõgevaga. Kunstnikud endast, oma ja teineteise loomingust, huvist selle vastu, neid ühendavast, ideede taaskasutamisest, praegusest maalist, sotsiaalsest kunstist jm. Kunstnike eluloolisi andmeid ja andmeid nende loomingulise tegevuse kohta

  14. Malle Leisi ja Sandra Jõgeva kontrastvärvides perepilt / Malle Leis, Sandra Jõgeva ; intervjueerinud Tanel Veenre

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Leis, Malle, 1940-

    2010-01-01

    Intervjuu 9. juulil 70. sünnipäeva tähistanud maalikunstniku ja graafiku Malle Leisi ning tema tütre, kunstniku ja kirjaniku Sandra Jõgevaga. Kunstnikud endast, oma ja teineteise loomingust, huvist selle vastu, neid ühendavast, ideede taaskasutamisest, praegusest maalist, sotsiaalsest kunstist jm. Kunstnike eluloolisi andmeid ja andmeid nende loomingulise tegevuse kohta

  15. Sandy ja Hugh - paar või mitte? / Hugh Grant, Sandra Bullock

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Grant, Hugh, 1960-

    2003-01-01

    Romantilises komöödias "Kaks nädalat armumiseks" ("Two Weeks Notice"), režissöör Marc Lawrence, mängivad kaks kuulsat näitlejat. Staarid oma suhetest : Hugh Grant : "Sandra on geenius"; Sandra Bullock : "Oleme temaga nagu kaksikud!"

  16. Sandy ja Hugh - paar või mitte? / Hugh Grant, Sandra Bullock

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Grant, Hugh, 1960-

    2003-01-01

    Romantilises komöödias "Kaks nädalat armumiseks" ("Two Weeks Notice"), režissöör Marc Lawrence, mängivad kaks kuulsat näitlejat. Staarid oma suhetest : Hugh Grant : "Sandra on geenius"; Sandra Bullock : "Oleme temaga nagu kaksikud!"

  17. Polymeri utoopiline festival meelitab uue maailma kunstnikke / Sandra Jõgeva ; intervjueerinud Mari Peegel

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2011-01-01

    Festivali kava üks koostajaid Sandra Jõgeva 24.-28. augustini 2011 toimuvast kultuuritehase Polymer festivalist ja tähtsamatest esinejatest. Selle aasta festivalil tegeldakse utoopiliste visioonidega

  18. Sandra Pihlak - kõik või mitte midagi / Joanna Hoffmann

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Hoffmann, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    Eesti Kunstiakadeemia vilistlane ja Londoni Püha Martini kunsti- ja disainikolledži (Central Saint Matrins College of Art and Design - CSM) magistrant Sandra Pihlak tekstiilidisaini bakalaureuseõpingutest Eestis ja tulevikumaterjalide eriala magistriõpingutest Londonis

  19. Polymeri utoopiline festival meelitab uue maailma kunstnikke / Sandra Jõgeva ; intervjueerinud Mari Peegel

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2011-01-01

    Festivali kava üks koostajaid Sandra Jõgeva 24.-28. augustini 2011 toimuvast kultuuritehase Polymer festivalist ja tähtsamatest esinejatest. Selle aasta festivalil tegeldakse utoopiliste visioonidega

  20. Vabadussamba valmimise tähtaeg kõlgub ohujoonel / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    Tallinna linnavalitsus viivitab Vabadussõja võidusambale ehitusloa väljaandmisega. Samba valmimise tähtaeg on ohus. Kommenteerivad Veiko Pärlin ja Taavi Aas. Samal teemal ka lk. 1 "Nägelus pidurdab samba valmimist" ja lk. 2 Sandra Maasalu repliik "Tee eikuhugi"

  1. Nüüd kunst, nüüd tulevik / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    Vilniuse II rahvusvaheline graafikabiennal "Present Time. Now Art Now Future" Vilniuse Kaasaegse Kunsti Keskuses kuni 11. V. Kuraatorid Ignas Kazakevicius ja Jurate Rekeviciute. Eestist osalevad Peeter Allik, Eve Kask ja Sandra Jõgeva. Kuraator Jurate Rekeviciute biennaali alanäitusest "Valmis ajalooks" Gediminase avenüü kaubanduskeskuse galeriis

  2. Nüüd kunst, nüüd tulevik / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    Vilniuse II rahvusvaheline graafikabiennal "Present Time. Now Art Now Future" Vilniuse Kaasaegse Kunsti Keskuses kuni 11. V. Kuraatorid Ignas Kazakevicius ja Jurate Rekeviciute. Eestist osalevad Peeter Allik, Eve Kask ja Sandra Jõgeva. Kuraator Jurate Rekeviciute biennaali alanäitusest "Valmis ajalooks" Gediminase avenüü kaubanduskeskuse galeriis

  3. Milnesium minutum and Milnesium sandrae, two new species of Milnesiidae (Tardigrada, Eutardigrada, Apochela).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilato, Giovanni; Lisi, Oscar

    2016-01-01

    Two new species of Milnesium are described, Milnesium minutum sp. n. from Sicily and Milnesium sandrae sp. n. from the Hawaiian Archipelago. The body size of Milnesium minutum is the smallest of the known species of the genus. The stylet supports are inserted on the buccal tube at 63-66% of its length and the claws have a [3-3]-[3-3] configuration. Milnesium sandrae has stylet supports inserted on the buccal tube at 58-60.5% of its length, a [3-3]-[3-3] claw configuration, and the percent ratio between the secondary claw and primary claw length on legs I-III (78.6%-85.5%) clearly higher than on legs IV (70.5%-71.4%). With the description of these two new species, the number of species in the genus is increased to 31.

  4. [Contributions to the chemical study of the essential oil isolated from coriander fruits (Sandra cultivar)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifan, Adriana; Aprotosoaie, Ana Clara; Spac, A; Hăncianu, Monica; Miron, Anca; Stănescu, Ursula

    2011-01-01

    Coriandrum sativum L. (Apiaceae) is a well known herb, native to the Mediterranean region, also intensively cultivated in Romania. The essential oil obtained from Coriandri fructus posseses antimicrobial, antioxidant and anxiolytic effects. Many parameters such as genetic and climatic factors or agronomical practices can influence the yield and composition of the volatile fraction. Plant density is an important factor for the microenvironment in coriander field. In order to study the effect of planting density on the yield of the essential oil and its composition, a bifactorial experiment was carried out on coriander plants (Sandra cultivar). The experiment was performed with three plant densities on the row (0, 15 and 20 cm); the distance between plant rows was 12.5, 25 and 50 cm, respectively. So, it resulted nine experimental variants. The essential oils obtained by hydrodistillation from fruits have been characterized using gas chromatography and mass spectroscopy analysis (GC-MS). The highest yield (7.9866 kg/ha) was obtained for the plants spaced at 20 cm in between and 25 cm row spacing. The highest content of monoterpene alcohols (50.96%) was obtained with 25 cm row spacing and plant spaced at 0 cm on the row. The main components in all oils were monoterpene alcohols (40.75% - 50.96%) and monoterpenes (32.43-38.44%). The essential oil of coriander fruits (Sandra cultivar) does not meet the requirements of the European Pharmacopoeia, especially concerning the content in linalool. Nevertheless, the high content in monoterpene alcohols and monoterpenes recommends the use of the essential oil as immunomodulatory, analgesic and antiinflammatory agent in rheumatology and also as an antibacterial and antiviral agent. Consequently, the changes in yield and composition of the essential oil of Sandra coriander should be assesed during several periods of vegetation in order to conclude on its pharmaceutical quality.

  5. Sandra Steingraber: vähiepideemia vastu tuleb võidelda süsteemselt / intervjueerinud Epp Petrone

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Steingraber, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    Vestlus ameerika bioloogi ja ise vähki põdenud Sandra Steingraberiga vähivastasest võitlusest. S. Steingraberil on ilmunud ka mitu raamatut, nendest "Having faith" on tõlgitud ka eesti keelde (Mina olen ookean. Tartu : Petrone Print, 2009)

  6. Sandra Steingraber: vähiepideemia vastu tuleb võidelda süsteemselt / intervjueerinud Epp Petrone

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Steingraber, Sandra

    2010-01-01

    Vestlus ameerika bioloogi ja ise vähki põdenud Sandra Steingraberiga vähivastasest võitlusest. S. Steingraberil on ilmunud ka mitu raamatut, nendest "Having faith" on tõlgitud ka eesti keelde (Mina olen ookean. Tartu : Petrone Print, 2009)

  7. Um passaporte húngaro, de Sandra Kogut: cinema polí­tico e intimidade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Consuelo Lins

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Um passaporte húngaro, da cineasta e videoartista brasileira Sandra Kogut, é um filme que utiliza diferentes tecnologias para construir uma narrativa em que a diretora está fortemente presente. Trata-se de um filme em que a esfera da vida privada está em primeiro plano, indo ao encontro de uma realidade midiática que esvazia cada vez mais a esfera pública em favor da intimidade. Contudo, diferentemente do que assistimos na televisão, o filme articula de maneira singular experiências pessoais com a história e a memória coletivas, imprimindo deslocamentos importantes tanto em relação í produção midiática quanto ao documentário clássico polí­tico e aos filmes autobiográficos mais correntes. Palavras-chave cinema, documentário, intimidade, memória, polí­tico Abstract A Hungarian Passport, a film by Sandra Kogut, a Brazilian film-maker and video artist, makes use of different technologies in order to construct a narrative in which the director is strongly present. The private life circle is quite evident in the film, conforming to a media reality that progressively does without a public context in favour of the intimate. However, different from what we see on television, this film, in such special manner, articulates personal experiences with collective history and memory, imprinting important displacements both in relation to the mediatic production and the classical political documentary as well as the more common autobiographical films. Key words cinema, documentary, intimacy, memory, politics

  8. Proyecto de restauración de la Mina Sandra en el T.M. de Manzanera (Teruel)

    OpenAIRE

    BENNETTO PERIS, MATEU

    2015-01-01

    [EN] This project pursues the restoration of the area occupied by the Sandra Mine, located in Manzanera (Teruel). This mine is an open-sky mine or quarry, with high visual and environmental impact. Although currently there are no mining activities, the effect to the soil and the environment remains. After an initial evaluation of the current conditions, the objective will be to remedy the degraded situation by means of soil treatment, native forest plantation and the improvement of hydrologic...

  9. LA PSICOLOGIA PARAGUAYA REPRESENTADA EN LA PSICOLOGIA DE JAMES O. WHITTAKER Y SANDRA J. WHITTAKER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José E. García

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available En 1987 los psicólogos estadounidenses James O. Whittaker y Sandra J. Whittaker publicaron la cuarta edición de su famoso libro Psicología. Este fue uno de los textos de introducción más conocidos y utilizados en América Latina y a través de él muchos miles de estudiantes aprendieron sus primeros conceptos sobre la psicología. Esta edición estaba preparada especialmente para su utilización con los alumnos de habla castellana e introducía numerosos tópicos relacionados a la psicología latinoamericana. Además incluía menciones específicas a algunos psicólogos de la región y sus contribuciones a la psicología. Uno de ellos era José de Jesús Aguirre, psicólogo y sacerdote jesuita y uno de los pioneros de la psicología profesional en el Paraguay. Aguirre aplicó la teoría del filósofo holandés Gerard Heymans y su colaborador el psiquiatra Enno Dirk Wiersma con las modificaciones que unos años más tarde introdujo el psicólogo francés René Le Senne. El propósito de la investigación era el análisis de los rasgos tipológicos característicos en la población paraguaya. Con ello, Aguirre iniciaba el estudio científico de la personalidad en el Paraguay. Este artículo estudia la importancia que corresponde asignar a la investigación de Aguirre como parte del texto introductorio de Whittaker y Whittaker. Se analizan los fundamentos teóricos de la tipología de Heymans-Wiersma-Le Senne y las adaptaciones realizadas por Aguirre, además de su aplicación a una muestra superior a las setecientas personas. Esta provenía de diversos niveles educativos, tanto secundarios como universitarios. En la parte concluyente se analiza la relevancia de Aguirre y su trabajo en el contexto de la psicología paraguaya y latinoamericana.

  10. Kuninga Kuulutaja : oma esimest kooli ei unusta me kunagi / Sandra Põld, Karl-Ott Juhanson, Elis Rebbas, Aleksander Mjakonkihh...[jt.

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2007-01-01

    Pärnu Kuninga Tänava Põhikooli lõpetajad Sandra Põld, Karl-Ott Juhanson, Elis Rebbas, Aleksander Mjakonkihh, Vegard Kruusla ja Erik Nisu vastavad küsimusele milliste tunnete-mälestustega nad oma esimesest koolist lahkuvad ja millest unistavad? Sisaldab Koolilehe toimetust: Ruth Kaik, Marika Hoolma, Egne Õispuu, Rauno Pella, Kadi Raal, Gritta Käär ja Maarja Põld

  11. Exilio y búsqueda del padre en Fuga en mí menor de Sandra Lorenzano

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    Anamaria González Luna

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a literary reading centered on the absence of the father as a narrative and psychological element of Sandra Lorenzano’s novel, Fuga en mí menor. The search for the father as a necessary process to configure one’s identity becomes an interior escape, leading the main character to work out a suspended mourning, which finds expression in art and music. The metaphoric pun in the title itself announces the meaning of the escape as a double movement, musical and interior, and anticipates the structure that revolves around one single theme whose counterpoints are the different voices and linguistic codes used by the author, which put music and photography in the focus. The threads of heteroglossia weave individual and collective memory; the sounds and silences, the lights and shadows, European history during the Second World War and Argentine history during the dictatorship as moments that have forced people into exile. In the novel the classic paradigm of Telemachus takes on the shape of exile with all its meaning of separation and loss, and leads to the discovery of being an orphan as a necessary condition to inherit from the father, that is, inherit the possibility of opening up new meanings to the world, as the only possible way to give meaning to the experience of life, to your own history.

  12. Sandra Cisneros’s The House on Mango Street: (Collective Memory Resonating from “the Barrio”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Nikodinoska

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available  “The people I wrote about were real, for the most part, from here and there, now and then, but sometimes three real people would be braided together into one made-up person… I cut apart and stitched together events to tailor the story, gave it shape so it had a beginning, middle, and end, because real life stories rarely come to us complete. Emotions, though, can’t be invented, can’t be borrowed. All the emotions my characters feel, good or bad are mine.” (xxiii Although Sandra Cisneros draws on autobiographical elements in The House on Mango Street (1984, her novella does not stand for an autobiography, but it rather represents a collage of events, characters, and places that independently from one another constitute vignettes. These vignettes are not necessarily chronologically related, yet they make up a whole of voices, stories, colors, and movements that once reverberated along Mango Street. Through her (Cisneros’s stories, Esperanza Cordero’s stories, and Esperanza’s neighbors’ stories, Cisneros conveys the Southwestern Latino experience of the big city and the streets, of the barrios that is. Taking my cue from Cisneros’s “The House on Mango Street,” I will try to examine how personal experiences become memories and those memories transcend into stories. Is what comes from experience and memory that makes writing strong, powerful, persuasive, and to a certain extent relatable? Have Cisneros’s memories, reflected in Esperanza’s living experience and language contributed to the Latino’s collective memory of the life in the barrios coupled with racism, poverty and shame? On that note, I shall see how Maurice Halbwachs’s concept of collective memory applies to Cisneros’ story and the Latino experience, where Latinos’ memory is dependent upon the life in the barrio within which the majority were/are situated.

  13. Cleófilas and La Llorona: Latin Heroines Against Patriarchal Marginalisation in ‘El arroyo de la Llorona’, a Short Story by Sandra Cisneros

    OpenAIRE

    Luis fernando Gómez R

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the short story ‘El arroyo de la Llorona’ by female Mexican-American writer Sandra Cisneros. In it the main character, Cleófilas, is subject to social, emotional and economic dependence on her husband, according to the cultural constructs on female identity that are still relevant in Latin-American patriarchal societies. Due to her circumstances of complete marginalisation and domestic violence, Cleófilas chooses to avoid reality, and this avoidance not only costs her men...

  14. Qu'est-ce que le care ? Souci des autres, sensibilité, responsabilité, sous la direction de Pascale Molinier, Sandra Laugier et Patricia Paperman

    OpenAIRE

    Raymond, Gilles

    2010-01-01

    Le livre intitulé « Qu'est-ce que le care ? Souci des autres, sensibilité, responsabilité » rassemble huit contributions d'auteurs différents sous la direction de Pascale Molinier, Sandra Laugier et Patricia Paperman sur l'éthique du care. Il est difficile d'en faire une synthèse. Ce sont comme des voix différentes qui exposent certains points essentiels de cette éthique. Toutes ces voix, dont les auteurs sont des femmes, contestent un ordre moral et social pour en revendiquer un autre. Cette...

  15. Myers Brown, Sandra. Historia, arte y alabanza: la música protestante en la España del siglo XIX

    OpenAIRE

    Plaza-Navas, Miquel Àngel

    2000-01-01

    Dada la escasez de información sobre el tema de la música protestante, es de gran interés poder disponer de reseñas como la aquí incluida. Reseña del libro: Myers Brown, Sandra. "Historia, arte y alabanza: la música protestante en la España del siglo XIX". Madrid: Consejo Evangélico de Madrid. Consejería de Educación y Cultura, 2000.

  16. Sandra Smykalla: Die Bildung der Differenz. Weiterbildung und Beratung im Kontext von Gender Mainstreaming. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften 2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin Rosa Ideler

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Die 2010 erschienene Dissertation von Sandra Smykalla gewährt detaillierte Einblicke in die Arbeit von Gendertrainer/-innen im Kontext der Implementierung von Gender Mainstreaming. Zentrale Erkenntnis dieser qualitativen Interviewstudie ist, dass Gendertrainer/-innen neben einer Genderkompetenz über eine Ambivalenzkompetenz verfügen müssen, wollen sie nicht Gefahr laufen, Geschlechterungleichheiten und -stereotypen zu revitalisieren. Überzeugend ist Smykallas Forderung nach der (Re-Politisierung des Feldes genderorientierter Weiterbildung, wofür ihr Rückgriff auf intersektional orientierte Methodiken einen ersten Ansatzpunkt darstellt.Sandra Smykalla’s dissertation, published in 2010, offers detailed insights into the work of gender trainers in the context of the implementation of gender mainstreaming. The main finding of this qualitative interview study is that gender trainers need to have both gender competence and ambivalence competence if they do not want to risk revitalizing gender inequalities and gender stereotypes. Smykalla’s demand for the (re- politicization of the field of gender-oriented training is convincing and her recourse to intersectionally oriented methodologies illustrates a first starting point.

  17. Amet kohustab / Sandra Peetso

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Peetso, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    18.-22. okt. Pärnu teatris Endla toimunud rahvusvahelisest laste- ja noorteteatrite festivalist "NB festival 2008". Pikemalt lavastustest "Võimaluste aed" (Prantsuse teatritrupp Association 16 rue de Plaisance), "Sailor & Pekka" (Rootsi teater TRE), "Misantroop" (VAT-teater), "Maria Bonita" (Taani teater Batida), "Avatud ring" (Leedu teatrilabor Open Circle)

  18. Amet kohustab / Sandra Peetso

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Peetso, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    18.-22. okt. Pärnu teatris Endla toimunud rahvusvahelisest laste- ja noorteteatrite festivalist "NB festival 2008". Pikemalt lavastustest "Võimaluste aed" (Prantsuse teatritrupp Association 16 rue de Plaisance), "Sailor & Pekka" (Rootsi teater TRE), "Misantroop" (VAT-teater), "Maria Bonita" (Taani teater Batida), "Avatud ring" (Leedu teatrilabor Open Circle)

  19. Leningradi aktsioonid / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2006-01-01

    Eesti kunstnike väljapanekust "Empty Spaces and their Occupants" 12.-24. augustini 2006 a. toimuval Peterburi Maneezhi 6. rahvusvahelisel eksperimentaalkunsti festivalil, kuraator Maksim Surin. Osalevad Kaido Ole, Merike Estna, Meeland Sepp jt

  20. The analysis of Sandra Cisneros' House on Mango Steet based on social criticism of Gloria Anzaldúa's Borderlands: La Frontera

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Špela Grum

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the main female characters that appear in Sandra Cisneros' collection of vignettes, House on Mango Street (1991. It sheds light on their lives and motives for their actions, through social criticism of Gloria Anzaldúa and the main points she establishes in her semi-autobiographical collection of essays Borderlands: La Frontera (1999. The topics Anzaldúa addresses give an insight into the Chicano identity, and the struggle of Chicano women in particular. Through her vantage point, I discuss gender roles, the immigrants' search for identity and their quest for a more dignified life, by trying to reconcile the antagonizing forces of the different parts of their identity.

  1. In Pompeii and Volterra the Earth Really Trembles: De-Territorialisation, European Art-Cinema, and the Fate of Neorealism in Roberto Rossellini's Journey to ltaly and Luchino Visconti's Sandra

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Ciammaroni

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho se utiliza de dois estudos de caso - Viagem to Italy (1953, de Roberto Rossellini e Sandra (1965, de Luchino Visconti para discutir questões políticas, historiográficas e estéticas [que interferem] no relacionamento entre o neo-realismo como cinema da nação italiana e o "cinema de arte europeu" como uma instituição desnacionalizada.

  2. Cleófilas and La Llorona: Latin Heroines Against Patriarchal Marginalisation in ‘El arroyo de la Llorona’, a Short Story by Sandra Cisneros

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis fernando Gómez R

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the short story ‘El arroyo de la Llorona’ by female Mexican-American writer Sandra Cisneros. In it the main character, Cleófilas, is subject to social, emotional and economic dependence on her husband, according to the cultural constructs on female identity that are still relevant in Latin-American patriarchal societies. Due to her circumstances of complete marginalisation and domestic violence, Cleófilas chooses to avoid reality, and this avoidance not only costs her mental well-being,but also annuls her will to make changes to her suffocating life. Oppressed by a patriarchal system,Cleófilas develops an unusual interest in the Llorona legend and, through the remembrance of this myth, these two female figures become symbols of resistance and liberation. In the story, the Llorona ceases to be the denigrated woman tradition has always made her out to be, and becomes the image of a contemporary heroine capable of challenging radical patriarchal norms.

  3. La ‘doppia assenza’: peregrinazioni letterarie tra italia e argentina in clementina Sandra Ammendola, Miguel Ángel García e Laura Pariani

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Camilotti

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Il presente articolo analizza le sollecitazioni delle identità e il senso di appartenenza di personaggi letterari che hanno vissuto esperienze di migrazione tra Italia e Argentina nei seguenti testi letterari: Il maestro di tango di Miguel Ángel García, Lei che sono io e Ci sono volte, tutte le volte di Clementina Sandra Ammendola e Quando Dio ballava il tangodi Laura Pariani. Tale analisi si realizza a partire dalle chiavi di lettura offerte dal saggio di Abdelmalek Sayad, La Double absence. Des illusions de l'émigré aux souffrances de l'immigré. Questi tre autori condividono l’esperienza biografia, divisa tra Italia e Argentina, che rappresentano a partire dallo strumento letterario. Si analizzano le loro opere comparando i modi a partire dai quali le identità dei personaggi (italiani emigrati in Argentina e argentini in Italia vengono rappresentate, come tali identità sono sollecitate e con quali conseguenze. Il confronto –che richiederà anche una contestualizzazione storica– incrocia le variabili di genere, classe e razza: infatti, al fine di esaminare la nozione di identità e i suoi mutamenti nei contesti migratori, appare necessario considerare come i processi sociali, culturali ed economici influenzano i personaggi.

  4. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  5. Cleófilas y La Llorona: heroínas latinas en contra de la marginalización patriarcal en el cuento de Sandra Cisneros “El arroyo de la Llorona”

    OpenAIRE

    Gómez R, Luis Fernando; Universidad Pedagógica Nacional, Bogotá, Colombia

    2013-01-01

    Este artículo discute el cuento “El arroyo de la Llorona” de la escritora Méjico-americana Sandra Cisneros. En él, el personaje principal, Cleófilas, está sujeta a la dependencia social, emocional y económica de su esposo, de acuerdo a constructos culturales sobre la identidad femenina que aún se mantienen en las sociedades patriarcales latinas. Debido a su estado de total marginalización y violencia intrafamiliar, Cleófilas opta por evadir la realidad, y esa evasión no solamente le causa ine...

  6. Kuues "Diverse. Universe" / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2010-01-01

    Non Grata korraldatud rahvusvaheline performance'i-kunsti festival "Diverse Universe 2010" Pärnu Kunstihallis ja Pärnu Kunstnike Majas 23. ja 24. aprillil. Rühmituste Juurikasvu (Soome), Cnopt (Eesti), Rubensid (Eesti), Ornicart (Prantsusmaa), Zane Matule ja Gatis Vectirānsi (Läti) jt. performance'itest

  7. Kuues "Diverse. Universe" / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2010-01-01

    Non Grata korraldatud rahvusvaheline performance'i-kunsti festival "Diverse Universe 2010" Pärnu Kunstihallis ja Pärnu Kunstnike Majas 23. ja 24. aprillil. Rühmituste Juurikasvu (Soome), Cnopt (Eesti), Rubensid (Eesti), Ornicart (Prantsusmaa), Zane Matule ja Gatis Vectirānsi (Läti) jt. performance'itest

  8. Breeds of Empire. The « Invention » of the Horse in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa 1500-1950, Greg Bankoff & Sandra Swart (éds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damien Onillon

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Cet ouvrage collectif dirigé par Greg Bankoff et Sandra Swart regroupe neuf contributions, divisées en deux parties, d’historiens spécialisés en histoire environnementale, économique ou sociale et d’une anthropologue. Chacune de ces contributions s’intéresse à l’introduction et à « l’invention » de nouvelles espèces de chevaux en Asie du Sud-Est en général, et particulièrement en Thaïlande, en Indonésie et aux Philippines, mais aussi en Afrique du Sud. Cette introduction s’effectue dans le co...

  9. 《认知语言学:内在动力与跨学科互动》介绍%Francisco J. Ruiz de Mendoza Ibá(n)ez & M. Sandra Pe(n)a Cervel(eds.).2005.Cognitive Linguistics: Internal Dynamics and Interdisciplinary Interaction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张云

    2008-01-01

    1.内容概览《认知语言学:内在动力与跨学科互动》一书由Francisco J.Ruiz de Mendoza Ibánez和M.Sandra Pena Cervel编辑,2005年由Moutonde Gruyter出版公司出版。全书432页,11篇论文,分为四个部分。

  10. 边界视角下的希斯内罗丝小说解读%Interpretation of Sandra Cisneros’s Novels from the Perspective of Border Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡佳

    2014-01-01

    传统的社会学边界研究在文学中逐渐受到关注和运用。由于受地理界线、历史文化及种族差异的影响,墨西哥裔美国文学中的边界书写更为突出。以当代墨西哥裔女作家桑德拉·希斯内罗丝的小说《芒果街上的小屋》和《拉拉的褐色披肩》为例,在细读文本的基础上,以格洛丽亚·安扎尔多瓦的边界研究视角为切入点,分析作品所体现的边界概念及其扩展的比喻意义。边界的不利处境反而成为小说中跨民族空间的移民提高自身及改善他们的跨界生活的催化剂,包容不同身份、寻求和谐的“新混血儿意识”帮助他们跨越边界,迈向更广阔的未来。%In the world of letters,there is a growing interest in the traditional sociological border studies. Due to the influences of geographical border,racial differences,history and culture,border writing is es-pecially prominent in Mexican American literature.Taking Mexican American women writer Sandra Cis-neros’s two novels---The House on Mango Street and Caramelo as the analyzing texts,this article a-dopts Gloria Anzaldúa’s border theory to analyze the border consciousness and its extended significance within the two novels.Instead of acting as an obstacle,the plight of living in borderland turns out to be the catalyst for the self-improvement of the Mexican Americans.The new mestiza consciousness inclu-ding a tolerance of ambiguity and a pursuit of harmony helps them to cross the border and create a promis-ing homeland.

  11. Noorus ei kohusta millekski / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2011-01-01

    ELIA korraldatud festivali "Neu/Now Live 2011" näitused Tallinnas Kullo Lastegaleriis ning Arhitektuuri- ja Disainigaleriis 17.-20.11.2011. Lühidalt ka eesti kunstniku Kristi Kongi ja disainer Lauri Hirvesaare töödest

  12. Tavaline üürikorter / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    Näitus "Üürikorter / Apartment for Rent" skulptuuri- ja installatsioonigaleriis Raja kuni 21. III. Kuraator on Berliinis töötav hollandi kunstnik Anneke Eussen, kelle workshop'i raames näituse tööd valmisid. Maigi Magnuse, Rene Reinumäe, Kadri Allekandi, Berit Talpsepa ja Eike Epliku töödest

  13. Lagunenud valitsusega Pakistan vaevleb kriisis / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    Ilmunud ka: Postimees : na russkom jazõke 27. aug. 2008, lk. 7. Pakistani valitsuse lagunemisest, kui endine peaminister Navaz Sharif oma parteiga koalitsioonist lahkus. Vt. samas: Pakistani ahistavad separatistid ja majanduse allakäik. Kaart: Pakistan

  14. Tavaline üürikorter / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    Näitus "Üürikorter / Apartment for Rent" skulptuuri- ja installatsioonigaleriis Raja kuni 21. III. Kuraator on Berliinis töötav hollandi kunstnik Anneke Eussen, kelle workshop'i raames näituse tööd valmisid. Maigi Magnuse, Rene Reinumäe, Kadri Allekandi, Berit Talpsepa ja Eike Epliku töödest

  15. Mitmekülgne universum / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    26. V toimunud tegevuskunstifestivali "Diverse Universe 2008" performance''i-konverentsist Pärnus Academia Non Grata majas. Tutvustati kollektiive HorseCow (California, Sacramento), GoGoTrash (Kesselberg), Berliini kunstnikerühmitust Open Space, 500 korea performance'i-kunstnikku koondavat isetekkelist organisatsiooni KOPAS - Korea Performance Art Spirit, ettekandega esines Brightoni kunstnik Orion Maxted

  16. Lagunenud valitsusega Pakistan vaevleb kriisis / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    Ilmunud ka: Postimees : na russkom jazõke 27. aug. 2008, lk. 7. Pakistani valitsuse lagunemisest, kui endine peaminister Navaz Sharif oma parteiga koalitsioonist lahkus. Vt. samas: Pakistani ahistavad separatistid ja majanduse allakäik. Kaart: Pakistan

  17. Paraproletariaat ja vilets Valgre / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    Eesti Kunstiakadeemia interdistsiplinaarsete kunstide osakonna ning Pärnu filmi- ja videofestivali alternatiivkino "Le Cinema Extraordinaire" (kuraatorid Erik Alalooga ja Ville-Karel Viirelaid) Tallinnas Nongrata Kunstikonteineris kultuuritehases Polymer 1.-22. II. Minna Hindi autoriõhtu (filmid "Kolm pilti elust ja ajast" ning "Sees või väljas") ja Jaan-Jürgen Klausi filmid "Sinitäheke" (peategelane Erkki Hüva) ning "Erakpoeet Marko Kompus"

  18. Entrevista : Sandra Bessudo Lion (APC-Colombia)

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Bióloga Marina del Ecole Pratique de Hautes Etudes Ephe, con Máster en Estudios de Ciencias de la Vida y de la Tierra en Perpignan, Francia. Es buzo profesional con más de 5.000 inmersiones en aguas abiertas, siendo una profesional muy comprometida con la conservación de la biodiversidad marina y con el cuidado del medio ambiente. A partir de enero de 2012 asumió la Dirección General de la Agencia Presidencial de Cooperación Internacional de Colombia (APC-Colombia), entidad gubernamental enca...

  19. Olemise talumatu raskus ja progressiusk / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    Prantsuse kunstniku Orlani näitus "Postidentiteedi strateegiad" Tallinna Kunstihoones, kuraatorid Eugenio Viola ja Reet Varblane. Teosest "Madonna garaazhis". Kunstniku pöördumisest molekulaarbioloogia võimaluste poole

  20. Smells Like Teen Spirit / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2009-01-01

    Kuigi on majanduslik langus, tekib praegu juurde loomelinnakuid ja kultuuriruume (Rotermanni loovala, Baltika loomeinkubaator, Telliskivi loomelinnak jne.). Riia kesklinnas olid septembris projekti Survival Kit raames avatud ajutised kunstigaleriid südalinna äripindadel. Autori sõnul on õhus üheksakümnendate hõngu, vanad jõuvahekorrad enam ei kehti, tekib uusi võimalusi

  1. Mitmekülgne universum / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    26. V toimunud tegevuskunstifestivali "Diverse Universe 2008" performance''i-konverentsist Pärnus Academia Non Grata majas. Tutvustati kollektiive HorseCow (California, Sacramento), GoGoTrash (Kesselberg), Berliini kunstnikerühmitust Open Space, 500 korea performance'i-kunstnikku koondavat isetekkelist organisatsiooni KOPAS - Korea Performance Art Spirit, ettekandega esines Brightoni kunstnik Orion Maxted

  2. Olemise talumatu raskus ja progressiusk / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    Prantsuse kunstniku Orlani näitus "Postidentiteedi strateegiad" Tallinna Kunstihoones, kuraatorid Eugenio Viola ja Reet Varblane. Teosest "Madonna garaazhis". Kunstniku pöördumisest molekulaarbioloogia võimaluste poole

  3. Nooremas keskeas klassikute nukuteater / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2010-01-01

    Silja Saarepuu ja Villu Plingi näitus "Aknal" Pärnu Kunstihallis 28. veebruarini 2010. Suure osa eksponeeritud loomingust hõlmab nn väikeste inimeste teema. Jasper Zoova ruumiliste maalide näitus "Jass tuli koju" Jazz Cafés Pärnus 3. märtsini 2010

  4. Urmas Põld ehitab Aseri sadamat / Sandra Jalakas

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jalakas, Sandra

    2004-01-01

    Endise vormelisõitja, ärimees Urmas Põllu karjäärist professionaalse võidusõitjana, tegevusest talle kuuluva autofirma PP Int Grupp eesotsas ning plaanidest rajada Aserisse naftatoodete eksportsadam

  5. Paraproletariaat ja vilets Valgre / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    Eesti Kunstiakadeemia interdistsiplinaarsete kunstide osakonna ning Pärnu filmi- ja videofestivali alternatiivkino "Le Cinema Extraordinaire" (kuraatorid Erik Alalooga ja Ville-Karel Viirelaid) Tallinnas Nongrata Kunstikonteineris kultuuritehases Polymer 1.-22. II. Minna Hindi autoriõhtu (filmid "Kolm pilti elust ja ajast" ning "Sees või väljas") ja Jaan-Jürgen Klausi filmid "Sinitäheke" (peategelane Erkki Hüva) ning "Erakpoeet Marko Kompus"

  6. Smells Like Teen Spirit / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2009-01-01

    Kuigi on majanduslik langus, tekib praegu juurde loomelinnakuid ja kultuuriruume (Rotermanni loovala, Baltika loomeinkubaator, Telliskivi loomelinnak jne.). Riia kesklinnas olid septembris projekti Survival Kit raames avatud ajutised kunstigaleriid südalinna äripindadel. Autori sõnul on õhus üheksakümnendate hõngu, vanad jõuvahekorrad enam ei kehti, tekib uusi võimalusi

  7. Nooremas keskeas klassikute nukuteater / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2010-01-01

    Silja Saarepuu ja Villu Plingi näitus "Aknal" Pärnu Kunstihallis 28. veebruarini 2010. Suure osa eksponeeritud loomingust hõlmab nn väikeste inimeste teema. Jasper Zoova ruumiliste maalide näitus "Jass tuli koju" Jazz Cafés Pärnus 3. märtsini 2010

  8. Kaasaegne kunst kui ekstreemne meelelahutus / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2005-01-01

    Tutvustatakse kümmet kaasaegset kunstirühmitust ja -projekti: USA anonüümne kollektiiv The Yes Men, rahvusvaheline rühmitus The Biotic Pie Bacing Brigade, Hispaania rühmitus Yomango, taani disainerite rühmitus N55, poolaka Krzystof Wodiczko projekt, USA rühmitus Basekamp, Austraalia tegevuskunstniku Stelarc' projekt, USA rühmitus Pink Bloque ja Inglismaa rühmitus My Dads Strip Club

  9. Kaasaegne kunst kui ekstreemne meelelahutus / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2005-01-01

    Tutvustatakse kümmet kaasaegset kunstirühmitust ja -projekti: USA anonüümne kollektiiv The Yes Men, rahvusvaheline rühmitus The Biotic Pie Bacing Brigade, Hispaania rühmitus Yomango, taani disainerite rühmitus N55, poolaka Krzystof Wodiczko projekt, USA rühmitus Basekamp, Austraalia tegevuskunstniku Stelarc' projekt, USA rühmitus Pink Bloque ja Inglismaa rühmitus My Dads Strip Club

  10. Interview : Sandra Bessudo Lion (APC-Colombia)

    OpenAIRE

    Bessudo Lion, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    She is a Marine Biologist, graduated from the Ecole Pratique de Hautes Etudes (EPHE), and holds a Master’s in Life and Earth Sciences from Perpignan, France. She is a professional scuba diver with over 5,000 dives in open waters. Ms. Bessudo is a professional strongly committed to the conservation of marine biodiversity and the protection of the environment. In January 2012, she took office as head of the General Directorate, Presidential Agency of International Cooperation, Colombia (APC-Col...

  11. 1409-IJBCS-Article-Sandra Farias+

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    hp

    After making the opening of the samples, the concentrations of minerals were obtained by Atomic ... functioning of our cells. ... alcoholic and non-alcoholic people from the ... human beings, the same was submitted and .... This ion is essential for neuronal ... number compared with group C. This is .... disorders of the brain.

  12. Noorus ei kohusta millekski / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2011-01-01

    ELIA korraldatud festivali "Neu/Now Live 2011" näitused Tallinnas Kullo Lastegaleriis ning Arhitektuuri- ja Disainigaleriis 17.-20.11.2011. Lühidalt ka eesti kunstniku Kristi Kongi ja disainer Lauri Hirvesaare töödest

  13. Is The Water Shortage Crisis Really One of the Most Dangerous?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, M.

    2010-12-01

    Author of the 1998 book, Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity, Dr. Sandra Postel predicts big water availability problems as populations of so-called “water-stressed” countries jump perhaps six fold over the next 30 years. The author has reported on this in his previous AGU presentations. In the next four decades, more than half of the world’s population will have to deal with sever water shortages. The United States has been blessed with several large fresh water lakes. In spite of having this fresh water supply, some states like Arizona could be facing sever fresh water shortages in the next couple of decades. Sid Wilson, general manager of the Central Arizona Project has indicated "It's not a question of if there is a water shortage anymore. It is in reality, when there will be a water shortage. " Several states share water from the Colorado river. The river has limited water supply to cater to the needs of Arizona, Nevada, California, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. World Health Organization, NASA, Department of the Interior, NOAA and several organizations have observed that there is a real water shortage crisis. This is because the world’s population has tripled in the twentieth century. This has resulted in a six-fold increase of water usage. Fresh water supply is limited. This is because water cannot be replaced with an alternative. It is important to observe that petroleum can be replaced with alternative fuel resources. It is necessary to recognize that fact that irrigation necessitates almost 65% to 70% of water withdrawal. Industry may utilize about 20% and domestic consumption is about 10% Evaporation from reservoirs is also a major factor, depending upon the climate and environment. Therefore there is an urgent need for all the countries to establish a strong, sound, sensible and sustainable management program for utilizing the available water supplies efficiently (Narayanan, 2008). References: Narayanan, Mysore. (2008). Hydrology, Water

  14. Sandra ja Liisu on igal etendusel kohal / Sandra Sillaots, Liisu Krass ; interv. Evelin Nõmmik

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Sillaots, Sandra

    2006-01-01

    Kahe sõbranna koostöös kirjutatud näidendit "Sõbrapäev" mängitakse Endla teatri Küüni laval. Mängivad teatri noortestuudio õpilased Enn Keerdi juhendamisel. Näidendi autorid sellest, kuidas näitemäng paberile sai ja lavastusest

  15. Sandra ja Liisu on igal etendusel kohal / Sandra Sillaots, Liisu Krass ; interv. Evelin Nõmmik

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Sillaots, Sandra

    2006-01-01

    Kahe sõbranna koostöös kirjutatud näidendit "Sõbrapäev" mängitakse Endla teatri Küüni laval. Mängivad teatri noortestuudio õpilased Enn Keerdi juhendamisel. Näidendi autorid sellest, kuidas näitemäng paberile sai ja lavastusest

  16. Hydrology, Water Scarcity and Market Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, M.

    2008-12-01

    Research scientists claim to have documented a six-fold increase in water use in the United States during the last century. It is interesting to note that the population of the United States has hardly doubled during the last century. While this indicates higher living standards, it also emphasizes an urgent need for establishing a strong, sound, sensible and sustainable management program for utilizing the available water supplies efficiently. Dr. Sandra Postel directs the independent Global Water Policy Project, as well as the Center for the Environment at Mount Holyoke College in South Hadley, Massachusetts. Author of the 1998 book, Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity, Dr. Postel predicts big water availability problems as populations of so-called "water-stressed" countries jump perhaps six fold over the next 30 years. The United Nations declared the years 2005 - 2015 as the "Water for Life" decade. It is also interesting and important to observe that the Oil - Rich Middle - East suffers from water scarcity to the maximum extent. It is also recognized that almost three-quarters of the globe is covered with water. Regardless, this is salt-water and there is very limited supply of freshwater to meet the needs of exploding global population. In excess of 10,000 desalination plants operate around the world in more than a hundred countries, but such a process is expensive and may seem prohibitive for developing countries with limited resources. Farmers can cut water usage by adopting the method known as drip irrigation which is known to be highly efficient. Drip Irrigation was pioneered by Israel and the Israeli farmers documented their efficiency by reducing the water used for irrigation by more than 30 percent. Unfortunately the rest of the world has failed to follow the lead set by this Great Jewish Nation. Worldwide, hardly 1percent of irrigated land utilizes efficient drip irrigation techniques. The problem lies in the fact that water is considered to be a free

  17. Predicting future of predictive analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Piyush, Duggal

    2014-01-01

    With enormous growth in analytical data and insight about advantage of managing future brings Predictive Analysis in picture. It really has potential to be called one of efficient and competitive technologies that give an edge to business operations. The possibility to predict future market conditions and to know customers’ needs and behavior in advance is the area of interest of every organization. Other areas of interest may be maintenance prediction where we tend to predict when and where ...

  18. Predictive medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boenink, Marianne; Have, ten Henk

    2015-01-01

    In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health sta

  19. Parkimistrahvide aegumise küsimuses valitseb segadus / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2007-01-01

    Justiitsministeerium peab vajalikuks täpsustada seadusi nii, et parkimistrahvi sissenõudmise aeg oleks täpselt määratletud. Kommenteerib justiitsminister Rein Lang. Vt ka: Koorits, Vahur. Röövimine aegub parkimistrahvist varem // Postimees 8. aug. 2007, lk. 3 ; Suik, Andres. Parkimistrahv aegub kiirelt : inimeste suhtes ei saa täita aegunud otsuseid // Postimees 14. aug. 2007, lk. 15

  20. Pärnu kunstnikud tagasi kodus / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2011-01-01

    Pärnust pärit kunstnike näitus "Tagasi koju" Pärnu Linnagaleriis 13. augustini 2011. Kuraator Mari Kartau, kunstnikud Kaarel Kurismaa, Mari Kurismaa, Malle Leis, Marco Laimre, Maiu Rõõmus, Flo Kasearu, Elin Kard

  1. New age'i kogupauk Pärnus / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2009-01-01

    Andrus Joonase kureeritud kuues Pärnu moodsa kunsti aastanäitus "Me oleme langenud inglid, kes peavad üles tõusma" Pärnu Kunstihallis, avatud kuni 11. jaan. Jasper Zoova joonistuste, installatsioonide ja animafilmide näitus "Reis ma ei tea kuhu" Pärnu Muuseumis, avatud kuni 15. jaan. Ville-Karel Viirelaiu tööde näitus "Metasport" Pärnu Kunstnike Majas, avatud 1. dets. 2008-3. jaan. 2009. Eksponeeritud kollaažid, kaks videot ja valgusinstallatsioon "30 sekundit"

  2. New age'i kogupauk Pärnus / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2009-01-01

    Andrus Joonase kureeritud kuues Pärnu moodsa kunsti aastanäitus "Me oleme langenud inglid, kes peavad üles tõusma" Pärnu Kunstihallis, avatud kuni 11. jaan. Jasper Zoova joonistuste, installatsioonide ja animafilmide näitus "Reis ma ei tea kuhu" Pärnu Muuseumis, avatud kuni 15. jaan. Ville-Karel Viirelaiu tööde näitus "Metasport" Pärnu Kunstnike Majas, avatud 1. dets. 2008-3. jaan. 2009. Eksponeeritud kollaažid, kaks videot ja valgusinstallatsioon "30 sekundit"

  3. Magistritiitli kui teaduskraadi aeg saab ümber / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2009-01-01

    Üleminek Bologna süsteemile kõrghariduses suleb 4+2 magistriõppekavad. Tallinna Ülikooli õppeosakonna juhataja Imbi Teiteri sõnul oli neil viimane võimalus teadusmagistritööd kaitsta tänavu 1. septembril. Samal kuupäeval sulges vanad õppekavad ka Tallinna Tehnikaülikool. Tartu Ülikoolis on viimaseks kaitsmiskuupäevaks 31. august ja Eesti Maaülikoolil 2011. aasta lõpp

  4. Development of the sandra antenna for airborne satellite communication

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verpoorte, J.; Schippers, H.; Jorna, P.; Hulzinga, A.; Roeloffzen, C.G.H.; Marpaung, D.A.I.; Sanadgol, B.; Baggen, R.; Wang, Qin; Noharet, B.; Beeker, W.; Leinse, A.; Heideman, R.G.

    2011-01-01

    Novel avionics communication systems are required for increasing flight safety and operational integrity, for optimizing economy of operations and for enhancing passenger services. One of the key technologies to be developed is an antenna system that will provide broadband connectivity within aircra

  5. Sandra Witte: Zouber. Hamburg: Verlag Dr. Kovač 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Sieber

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Die Freiburger Dissertation widmet sich dem Faszinosum Magie am Beispiel der höfischen Literatur des 12. und 13. Jahrhunderts. Im Zentrum steht die deskriptive Analyse von Magiedarstellungen auf der Handlungsebene fiktionaler Texte, wobei ein besonderes Augenmerk auf Geschlechterdifferenzen magiekundiger Figuren liegt. Vorab werden mögliche Schnittflächen zu zeitgenössischen Diskursen in den Bereichen Religion, Wissenschaft und Heilkunde konturiert und diese um Skizzen zu ausgewählten nichtfiktionalen Quellen ergänzt. Leider verschenkt die mediävistische Studie durch ihren überwiegend nacherzählenden Duktus das in der Magie-Thematik inhärente gender-theoretische und kulturwissenschaftliche Potential.This Freiburger dissertation approaches fascination with magic using the example of the courtly literature of the 12th and 13th centuries. Central to the study is the descriptive analysis of representations of magic at the plot level of fictional texts, whereby specific attention is paid to gender differences of those figures skilled in magic. Possible intersections with contemporary discourses in the areas of religion, science, and medical science are outlined at the outset. These are expanded with sketches of select non-fictional sources. Unfortunately, because of its tendency to uncritically re-narrate the texts, the medieval study passes up on the gender-theoretical and cultural studies oriented potential inherent to the theme of magic.

  6. Predicting Macrosomia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pates, Jason A; McIntire, Donald D; Casey, Brian M; Leveno, Kenneth J

    2008-01-01

    Objective. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prediction of fetal macrosomia based on ultrasound estimates of fetal weight and amniotic fluid volume combined with clinical risk factors. Methods...

  7. Prediction Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...

  8. Is Storage a Solution to End Water Shortage?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, M.

    2009-12-01

    Water shortage is a problem of supply and demand. Some authors refer to it as Water Scarcity. The author has discussed this in his previous presentation at the 2008 AGU International Conference. Part of it is reproduced here for purposes of clarification. It is important to recognize that water is essential for the survival of all life on earth. Many water-rich states have thought of water conservation as an art that is practiced mainly in the arid states. But one has to recite the famous quote: “You will never miss water till the well runs dry.” Researchers have also concluded that quantity deficiency experienced by groundwater supplies are affecting many communities around the world. Furthermore federal regulations pertaining to the quality of potable or drinking water have become more stringent (Narayanan, 2008). One must observe that water conservation schemes and efficient utilization practices also benefit the environment to a large extent. These water conservation practicies indeed have a short payback period althought it may seem that there is a heavy initial investment is required. Research scientists have studied MARR (Mean Annual River Runoff) pattern over the years and have arrived at some significant conclusions. Vörsömarty and other scientists have indicated that water scarcity exists when the demand to supply ratio exceeds the number 0.4. (Vörsömarty, 2005). Furthermore other researchers claim to have documented a six-fold increase in water use in the United States during the last century. It is interesting to note that the population of the United States has hardly doubled during the last century. This obviously, is indicative of higher living standards. Nevertheless, it also emphasizes an urgent need for establishing a strong, sound, sensible and sustainable management program for utilizing the available water supplies efficiently (Narayanan, 2008). Author of the 1998 book, Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity, Dr. Sandra Postel predicts big

  9. Predictable earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martini, D.

    2002-12-01

    acceleration) and global number of earthquake for this period from published literature which give us a great picture about the dynamical geophysical phenomena. Methodology: The computing of linear correlation coefficients gives us a chance to quantitatively characterise the relation among the data series, if we suppose a linear dependence in the first step. The correlation coefficients among the Earth's rotational acceleration and Z-orbit acceleration (perpendicular to the ecliptic plane) and the global number of the earthquakes were compared. The results clearly demonstrate the common feature of both the Earth's rotation and Earth's Z-acceleration around the Sun and also between the Earth's rotational acceleration and the earthquake number. This fact might means a strong relation among these phenomena. The mentioned rather strong correlation (r = 0.75) and the 29 year period (Saturn's synodic period) was clearly shown in the counted cross correlation function, which gives the dynamical characteristic of correlation, of Earth's orbital- (Z-direction) and rotational acceleration. This basic period (29 year) was also obvious in the earthquake number data sets with clear common features in time. Conclusion: The Core, which involves the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field, is the only sufficiently mobile part of the Earth with a sufficient mass to modify the rotation which probably effects on the global time distribution of the earthquakes. Therefore it might means that the secular variation of the earthquakes is inseparable from the changes in Earth's magnetic field, i.e. the interior process of the Earth's core belongs to the dynamical state of the solar system. Therefore if the described idea is real the global distribution of the earthquakes in time is predictable.

  10. Positive predictive value of the infant respiratory distress syndrome diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thygesen SK

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Sandra Kruchov Thygesen, Morten Olsen, Christian Fynbo ChristiansenDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, DenmarkBackground: Infant respiratory distress syndrome (IRDS is the most common respiratory disease in preterm infants, and is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Valid data on IRDS are important in clinical epidemiological research.Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the positive predictive value (PPV of the IRDS diagnosis registered in the population-based Danish National Patient Registry according to the International Classification of Diseases, 8th and 10th revisions.Methods: Between January 1, 1977 and December 31, 2008, we randomly selected three patients per year, 96 in total, who were registered with an IRDS diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry and living in the northern part of Denmark. Data on the infants included information on the presence of predefined clinical symptoms. We defined IRDS as the presence of at least two of four clinical symptoms (tachypnea, retractions or nasal flaring, grunting, and central cyanosis, which had to be present for more than 30 minutes. Using medical record review as the reference standard, we computed the positive predictive value of the registered IRDS diagnosis including 95% confidence intervals (CIs.Results: We located the medical record for 90 of the 96 patients (94%, and found an overall PPV of the IRDS diagnosis of 81% (95% CI 72%–88%. This did not vary substantially between primary and secondary diagnoses. The PPV was higher, at 89% (95% CI 80%–95%, for preterm infants born before 37 weeks of gestation.Conclusion: The PPV of the IRDS diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry is reasonable when compared with symptoms described in the corresponding medical records. The Danish National Patient Registry is a useful data source for studies of IRDS, particularly if restricted to preterm infants

  11. Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Theresa F.

    In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

  12. Predicting outdoor sound

    CERN Document Server

    Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

    2014-01-01

    1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

  13. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D;

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribut...

  14. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D;

    2015-01-01

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribut...

  15. Applied predictive control

    CERN Document Server

    Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

    2002-01-01

    The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

  16. Predicting Predictable about Natural Catastrophic Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, Vladimir

    2015-04-01

    By definition, an extreme event is rare one in a series of kindred phenomena. Usually (e.g. in Geophysics), it implies investigating a small sample of case-histories with a help of delicate statistical methods and data of different quality, collected in various conditions. Many extreme events are clustered (far from independent) and follow fractal or some other "strange" distribution (far from uniform). Evidently, such an "unusual" situation complicates search and definition of reliable precursory behaviors to be used for forecast/prediction purposes. Making forecast/prediction claims reliable and quantitatively probabilistic in the frames of the most popular objectivists' viewpoint on probability requires a long series of "yes/no" forecast/prediction outcomes, which cannot be obtained without an extended rigorous test of the candidate method. The set of errors ("success/failure" scores and space-time measure of alarms) and other information obtained in such a control test supplies us with data necessary to judge the candidate's potential as a forecast/prediction tool and, eventually, to find its improvements. This is to be done first in comparison against random guessing, which results confidence (measured in terms of statistical significance). Note that an application of the forecast/prediction tools could be very different in cases of different natural hazards, costs and benefits that determine risks, and, therefore, requires determination of different optimal strategies minimizing reliable estimates of realistic levels of accepted losses. In their turn case specific costs and benefits may suggest a modification of the forecast/prediction tools for a more adequate "optimal" application. Fortunately, the situation is not hopeless due to the state-of-the-art understanding of the complexity and non-linear dynamics of the Earth as a Physical System and pattern recognition approaches applied to available geophysical evidences, specifically, when intending to predict

  17. Predictive systems ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

    2013-11-22

    Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

  18. Predictability of conversation partners

    CERN Document Server

    Takaguchi, Taro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-01-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, Song et al. (2010) found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one's conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one's next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between close sensor nodes. We find t...

  19. Distribution Free Prediction Bands

    CERN Document Server

    Lei, Jing

    2012-01-01

    We study distribution free, nonparametric prediction bands with a special focus on their finite sample behavior. First we investigate and develop different notions of finite sample coverage guarantees. Then we give a new prediction band estimator by combining the idea of "conformal prediction" (Vovk et al. 2009) with nonparametric conditional density estimation. The proposed estimator, called COPS (Conformal Optimized Prediction Set), always has finite sample guarantee in a stronger sense than the original conformal prediction estimator. Under regularity conditions the estimator converges to an oracle band at a minimax optimal rate. A fast approximation algorithm and a data driven method for selecting the bandwidth are developed. The method is illustrated first in simulated data. Then, an application shows that the proposed method gives desirable prediction intervals in an automatic way, as compared to the classical linear regression modeling.

  20. Predictability of Conversation Partners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaguchi, Taro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

    2011-08-01

    Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song , ScienceSCIEAS0036-8075 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

  1. Solar Cycle Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, William Dean

    2012-01-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions; just like weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on LEO spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as you consume the reduced propellant load more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5-20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future will be discussed.

  2. Genomic Prediction in Barley

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid; Cericola, Fabio; Jensen, Jens D

    2015-01-01

    Genomic prediction uses markers (SNPs) across the whole genome to predict individual breeding values at an early growth stage potentially before large scale phenotyping. One of the applications of genomic prediction in plant breeding is to identify the best individual candidate lines to contribute...... to next generation. The main goal of this study was to see the potential of using genomic prediction in a commercial Barley breeding program. The data used in this study was from Nordic Seed company which is located in Denmark. Around 350 advanced lines were genotyped with 9K Barely chip from Illumina...

  3. Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin

    2012-01-01

    -case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only......Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

  4. Predicting AD conversion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Yawu; Mattila, Jussi; Ruiz, Miguel �ngel Mu�oz

    2013-01-01

    To compare the accuracies of predicting AD conversion by using a decision support system (PredictAD tool) and current research criteria of prodromal AD as identified by combinations of episodic memory impairment of hippocampal type and visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on MRI...

  5. Predicting the MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendon, H.

    2003-04-01

    Extended range prediction of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and seasonal prediction of MJO activity are reviewed. Skillful prediction of individual MJO events offers the possibility of forecasting increased risk of cyclone development throughout the global tropics, altered risk of extreme rainfall events in both tropics and extratropics, and displacement of storm tracks with 3-4 week lead times. The level of MJO activity within a season, which affects the mean intensity of the Australian summer monsoon and possibly the evolution of ENSO, may be governed by variations of sea surface temperature that are predictable with lead times of a few seasons. The limit of predictability for individual MJO events is unknown. Empirical-statistical schemes are skillful out to about 3 weeks and have better skill than dynamical forecast models at lead times longer than about 5 days. The dynamical forecast models typically suffer from a poor representation (or complete lack) of the MJO and large initial error. They are better used to ascertain the global impacts of the lack of the MJO rather than for determination of the limit of predictability. Dynamical extended range prediction within a GCM that has a good representation of the MJO indicates potential skill comparable to the empirical schemes. Examples of operational extended range prediction with POAMA, the new coupled seasonal forecast model at the Bureau of Meteorology that also reasonably simulates the MJO, will be presented.

  6. Protein Sorting Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Many computational methods are available for predicting protein sorting in bacteria. When comparing them, it is important to know that they can be grouped into three fundamentally different approaches: signal-based, global-property-based and homology-based prediction. In this chapter, the strengths...

  7. Improved nonlinear prediction method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Md Noorani, Mohd Salmi

    2014-06-01

    The analysis and prediction of time series data have been addressed by researchers. Many techniques have been developed to be applied in various areas, such as weather forecasting, financial markets and hydrological phenomena involving data that are contaminated by noise. Therefore, various techniques to improve the method have been introduced to analyze and predict time series data. In respect of the importance of analysis and the accuracy of the prediction result, a study was undertaken to test the effectiveness of the improved nonlinear prediction method for data that contain noise. The improved nonlinear prediction method involves the formation of composite serial data based on the successive differences of the time series. Then, the phase space reconstruction was performed on the composite data (one-dimensional) to reconstruct a number of space dimensions. Finally the local linear approximation method was employed to make a prediction based on the phase space. This improved method was tested with data series Logistics that contain 0%, 5%, 10%, 20% and 30% of noise. The results show that by using the improved method, the predictions were found to be in close agreement with the observed ones. The correlation coefficient was close to one when the improved method was applied on data with up to 10% noise. Thus, an improvement to analyze data with noise without involving any noise reduction method was introduced to predict the time series data.

  8. Seismology for rockburst prediction.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    De Beer, W

    2000-02-01

    Full Text Available . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3.1.3 Establish the predictive power, applicability and efficiency for each model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.3.1 Non-parametric statistics... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.3.2 Time to failure prediction algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.1.4 Testing for deterministic components of time series of interest, noise reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3...

  9. The Prediction Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

  10. Predicting protein structure classes from function predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommer, I.; Rahnenfuhrer, J.; de Lichtenberg, Ulrik;

    2004-01-01

    We introduce a new approach to using the information contained in sequence-to-function prediction data in order to recognize protein template classes, a critical step in predicting protein structure. The data on which our method is based comprise probabilities of functional categories; for given...... query sequences these probabilities are obtained by a neural net that has previously been trained on a variety of functionally important features. On a training set of sequences we assess the relevance of individual functional categories for identifying a given structural family. Using a combination...... of the most relevant categories, the likelihood of a query sequence to belong to a specific family can be estimated. Results: The performance of the method is evaluated using cross-validation. For a fixed structural family and for every sequence, a score is calculated that measures the evidence for family...

  11. Prediction by Compression

    CERN Document Server

    Ratsaby, Joel

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that text compression can be achieved by predicting the next symbol in the stream of text data based on the history seen up to the current symbol. The better the prediction the more skewed the conditional probability distribution of the next symbol and the shorter the codeword that needs to be assigned to represent this next symbol. What about the opposite direction ? suppose we have a black box that can compress text stream. Can it be used to predict the next symbol in the stream ? We introduce a criterion based on the length of the compressed data and use it to predict the next symbol. We examine empirically the prediction error rate and its dependency on some compression parameters.

  12. Structural prediction in aphasia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tessa Warren

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available There is considerable evidence that young healthy comprehenders predict the structure of upcoming material, and that their processing is facilitated when they encounter material matching those predictions (e.g., Staub & Clifton, 2006; Yoshida, Dickey & Sturt, 2013. However, less is known about structural prediction in aphasia. There is evidence that lexical prediction may be spared in aphasia (Dickey et al., 2014; Love & Webb, 1977; cf. Mack et al, 2013. However, predictive mechanisms supporting facilitated lexical access may not necessarily support structural facilitation. Given that many people with aphasia (PWA exhibit syntactic deficits (e.g. Goodglass, 1993, PWA with such impairments may not engage in structural prediction. However, recent evidence suggests that some PWA may indeed predict upcoming structure (Hanne, Burchert, De Bleser, & Vashishth, 2015. Hanne et al. tracked the eyes of PWA (n=8 with sentence-comprehension deficits while they listened to reversible subject-verb-object (SVO and object-verb-subject (OVS sentences in German, in a sentence-picture matching task. Hanne et al. manipulated case and number marking to disambiguate the sentences’ structure. Gazes to an OVS or SVO picture during the unfolding of a sentence were assumed to indicate prediction of the structure congruent with that picture. According to this measure, the PWA’s structural prediction was impaired compared to controls, but they did successfully predict upcoming structure when morphosyntactic cues were strong and unambiguous. Hanne et al.’s visual-world evidence is suggestive, but their forced-choice sentence-picture matching task places tight constraints on possible structural predictions. Clearer evidence of structural prediction would come from paradigms where the content of upcoming material is not as constrained. The current study used self-paced reading study to examine structural prediction among PWA in less constrained contexts. PWA (n=17 who

  13. Prediction of alumina penetration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mandell, D A

    1993-02-01

    The MESA hydrocode was used to predict two-dimensional tests of L/D 10 and L/D 15 tungsten rods impacting AD 90 alumina with a steel backing. The residual penetration into the steel is the measured quantity in these experiments conducted at the Southwest Research Institute (SWR). The interface velocity as a function of time between an alumina target and a lithium fluoride window, impacted by an alumina disk at velocities between 544 m/s and 2329 m/s, was also predicted. These one-dimensional flyer plate experiments were conducted at Sandia National Laboratories using Coors AD 995 alumina. The material strength and fracture models are important in the prediction of ceramic experiments. The models used in these predictions are discussed. The penetrations in the two-dimensional tests were predicted to 11.4 percent or better. In five of the six experiments, the predicted penetration depth was deeper than the measured value. This trend is expected since the calculation is based on ideal conditions. The results show that good agreement between the 1-D flyer plate data and the MESA predictions exists at the lower impact velocities, but the maximum velocity is overpredicted as the flyer plate velocity increases. At a flyer plate velocity of 2329 m/s the code overpredicted the data by 12.3 percent.

  14. Evolution prediction from tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominy, Jason M.; Venuti, Lorenzo Campos; Shabani, Alireza; Lidar, Daniel A.

    2017-03-01

    Quantum process tomography provides a means of measuring the evolution operator for a system at a fixed measurement time t. The problem of using that tomographic snapshot to predict the evolution operator at other times is generally ill-posed since there are, in general, infinitely many distinct and compatible solutions. We describe the prediction, in some "maximal ignorance" sense, of the evolution of a quantum system based on knowledge only of the evolution operator for finitely many times 0evolution at times away from the measurement times. Even if the original evolution is unitary, the predicted evolution is described by a non-unitary, completely positive map.

  15. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  16. Wind Power Prediction Investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanlong Liu

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Daily and real-time forecast data of wind power is predicted in this study using three methods, which are Kalman filter model, GARCH model and time-series-based BP neural network model. Then, owing to evaluation to the calculation of accuracy and qualification rate, the best method, the time-series-based BP neural network model, was selected for its highest accuracy. Moreover, the prediction error influence due to convergence of wind turbine is on consideration according to the evaluation. Finally, suggestions of improving the prediction accuracy were put forward based on the discussion of accuracy-obstacle factors.

  17. Methane prediction in collieries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Creedy, DP

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available The primary aim of the project was to assess the current status of research on methane emission prediction for collieries in South Africa in comparison with methods used and advances achieved elsewhere in the world....

  18. Predicted value of $0 \\, \

    CERN Document Server

    Maedan, Shinji

    2016-01-01

    Assuming that the lightest neutrino mass $ m_0 $ is measured, we study the influence of error of the measured $ m_0 $ on the uncertainty of the predicted value of the neutrinoless double beta decay ($0 \\, \

  19. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ predicted ozone. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Gantt, B., G. Sarwar, J. Xing, H. Simon, D. Schwede, B. Hutzell, R. Mathur, and A....

  20. Predictable grammatical constructions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucas, Sandra

    2015-01-01

    My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting...... that these predictable units should be considered grammatical constructions on a par with the nonpredictable constructions. Frequency has usually been seen as the only possible argument speaking in favor of viewing some formally and semantically fully predictable units as grammatical constructions. However, this paper...... semantically and formally predictable. Despite this difference, [méllo INF], like the other future periphrases, seems to be highly entrenched in the cognition (and grammar) of Early Medieval Greek language users, and consequently a grammatical construction. The syntactic evidence speaking in favor of [méllo...

  1. Highlights, predictions, and changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeang, Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-15

    Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding "hot" retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  2. Predicting toxicity of nanoparticles

    OpenAIRE

    BURELLO ENRICO; Worth, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    A statistical model based on a quantitative structure–activity relationship accurately predicts the cytotoxicity of various metal oxide nanoparticles, thus offering a way to rapidly screen nanomaterials and prioritize testing.

  3. Outcome predictability biases learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Oren; Mitchell, Chris J; Bethmont, Anna; Lovibond, Peter F

    2015-01-01

    Much of contemporary associative learning research is focused on understanding how and when the associative history of cues affects later learning about those cues. Very little work has investigated the effects of the associative history of outcomes on human learning. Three experiments extended the "learned irrelevance" paradigm from the animal conditioning literature to examine the influence of an outcome's prior predictability on subsequent learning of relationships between cues and that outcome. All 3 experiments found evidence for the idea that learning is biased by the prior predictability of the outcome. Previously predictable outcomes were readily associated with novel predictive cues, whereas previously unpredictable outcomes were more readily associated with novel nonpredictive cues. This finding highlights the importance of considering the associative history of outcomes, as well as cues, when interpreting multistage designs. Associative and cognitive explanations of this certainty matching effect are discussed.

  4. Chapter VII. Predicting Fertility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Section 2. Visual and Microscopic Approaches for Differentiating Unfertilized Germinal Discs and Early dead Embryos from Pre-Incubated Blastoderms Section 3. Predicting the Duration of fertility by Counting Sperm in the Outer Perivitelline Layer of Laid Eggs...

  5. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    This paper provides detailed insights into predictability of the entire stock and bond return distribution through the use of quantile regression. This allows us to examine speci…c parts of the return distribution such as the tails or the center, and for a suf…ciently …ne grid of quantiles we can...... are predictable as a function of economic state variables. The results are, however, very different for stocks and bonds. The state variables primarily predict only location shifts in the stock return distribution, while they also predict changes in higher-order moments in the bond return distribution. Out...... trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions...

  6. Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    W.R BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

    2003-01-01

    This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting...

  7. Stuck pipe prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alzahrani, Majed

    2016-03-10

    Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

  8. Nonparametric Predictive Regression

    OpenAIRE

    Ioannis Kasparis; Elena Andreou; Phillips, Peter C.B.

    2012-01-01

    A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips (2012) and are obtained by kernel regression. The limit distribution of these predictive tests holds for a wide range of predictors including stationary as well as non-stationary fractional and near unit...

  9. Aircraft Noise Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    This contribution addresses the state-of-the-art in the field of aircraft noise prediction, simulation and minimisation. The point of view taken in this context is that of comprehensive models that couple the various aircraft systems with the acoustic sources, the propagation and the flight trajectories. After an exhaustive review of the present predictive technologies in the relevant fields (airframe, propulsion, propagation, aircraft operations, trajectory optimisation), the paper add...

  10. Uncertainty quantified trait predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fazayeli, Farideh; Kattge, Jens; Banerjee, Arindam; Schrodt, Franziska; Reich, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Functional traits of organisms are key to understanding and predicting biodiversity and ecological change, which motivates continuous collection of traits and their integration into global databases. Such composite trait matrices are inherently sparse, severely limiting their usefulness for further analyses. On the other hand, traits are characterized by the phylogenetic trait signal, trait-trait correlations and environmental constraints, all of which provide information that could be used to statistically fill gaps. We propose the application of probabilistic models which, for the first time, utilize all three characteristics to fill gaps in trait databases and predict trait values at larger spatial scales. For this purpose we introduce BHPMF, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of Probabilistic Matrix Factorization (PMF). PMF is a machine learning technique which exploits the correlation structure of sparse matrices to impute missing entries. BHPMF additionally utilizes the taxonomic hierarchy for trait prediction. Implemented in the context of a Gibbs Sampler MCMC approach BHPMF provides uncertainty estimates for each trait prediction. We present comprehensive experimental results on the problem of plant trait prediction using the largest database of plant traits, where BHPMF shows strong empirical performance in uncertainty quantified trait prediction, outperforming the state-of-the-art based on point estimates. Further, we show that BHPMF is more accurate when it is confident, whereas the error is high when the uncertainty is high.

  11. Predicting affective choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suri, Gaurav; Sheppes, Gal; Gross, James J

    2013-08-01

    Affect is increasingly recognized as central to decision making. However, it is not clear whether affect can be used to predict choice. To address this issue, we conducted 4 studies designed to create and test a model that could predict choice from affect. In Study 1, we used an image rating task to develop a model that predicted approach-avoidance motivations. This model quantified the role of two basic dimensions of affect--valence and arousal--in determining choice. We then tested the predictive power of this model for two types of decisions involving images: preference based selections (Study 2) and risk-reward trade-offs (Study 3). In both cases, the model derived in Study 1 predicted choice and outperformed competing models drawn from well-established theoretical views. Finally, we showed that this model has ecological validity: It predicted choices between news articles on the basis of headlines (Study 4). These findings have implications for diverse fields, including neuroeconomics and judgment and decision making. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  12. Operational Dust Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedetti, Angela; Baldasano, Jose M.; Basart, Sara; Benincasa, Francesco; Boucher, Olivier; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Chen, Jen-Ping; Colarco, Peter R.; Gong, Sunlin; Huneeus, Nicolas; Jones, Luke; Lu, Sarah; Menut, Laurent; Morcrette, Jean-Jacques; Mulcahy, Jane; Nickovic, Slobodan; Garcia-Pando, Carlos P.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Sekiyama, Thomas T.; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Terradellas, Enric; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Xiao-Ye; Zhou, Chun-Hong

    2014-01-01

    Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed.

  13. Location predicting methods for UAVs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiaodong; Zhang, Yu

    2017-08-01

    Location prediction of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is important for fighting with its enemy and ensuring its normal operation. This paper presents the motion model of UAVs and reduces the state space into 7 dimensions. The Bayesian Network, Markov Chain, Curve Fitting and Neural Network are introduced for designing predicting methods. Then Curve Fitting Predicting method, Markov Chain Predicting method, Bayesian Network Predicting method and Neural Network Predicting method are designed for UAVs. The simulation result shows that 1) Neural Network Predicting method has highest predicting accuracy; 2) Markov Chain Predicting method and Bayesian Network Predicting method methods have similar performance and both are better than Bayesian Network Predicting method methods; 3) Neural Network Predicting method is the first choice when predicting the locations of UAVs.

  14. Cytomics in predictive medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarnok, Attila; Valet, Guenther K.

    2004-07-01

    Predictive Medicine aims at the detection of changes in patient's disease state prior to the manifestation of deterioration or improvement of the current status. Patient-specific, disease-course predictions with >95% or >99% accuracy during therapy would be highly valuable for everyday medicine. If these predictors were available, disease aggravation or progression, frequently accompanied by irreversible tissue damage or therapeutic side effects, could then potentially be avoided by early preventive therapy. The molecular analysis of heterogeneous cellular systems (Cytomics) by cytometry in conjunction with pattern-oriented bioinformatic analysis of the multiparametric cytometric and other data provides a promising approach to individualized or personalized medical treatment or disease management. Predictive medicine is best implemented by cell oriented measurements e.g. by flow or image cytometry. Cell oriented gene or protein arrays as well as bead arrays for the capture of solute molecules form serum, plasma, urine or liquor are equally of high value. Clinical applications of predictive medicine by Cytomics will include multi organ failure in sepsis or non infectious posttraumatic shock in intensive care, or the pretherapeutic identification of high risk patients in cancer cytostatic. Early individualized therapy may provide better survival chances for individual patient at concomitant cost containment. Predictive medicine guided early reduction or stop of therapy may lower or abrogate potential therapeutic side effects. Further important aspects of predictive medicine concern the preoperative identification of patients with a tendency for postoperative complications or coronary artery disease patients with an increased tendency for restenosis. As a consequence, better patient care and new forms of inductive scientific hypothesis development based on the interpretation of predictive data patterns are at reach.

  15. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  16. Janez Jansha. Euroopa oivik tõrjub solgiämbreid / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    2004. a. paremtsentristliku Demokraatliku Partei juhina valimistel võitnud Janez Jansha on populaarsust kaotamas ning peatsed valimised ei tõota ennustuste põhjal erilist edu. Dissidendist kõvakäemeheks. Korruptsioonisüüdistused seoses Soome relvafirma tehinguga

  17. Vive Tolli, Andy Warholi põlvkonnast / Vive Tolli ; interv. Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Tolli, Vive, 1928-

    1998-01-01

    Sel aastal Wiiralti preemia saanud V. Tolli eesti graafika tasemest, Eesti Kunstiakadeemia graafikakateedri seisust, haridusest, mis seal saab, eesti praegusest raamatukujundusest, liikumisest suurema lihtsuse suunas oma loomingus jm.

  18. Sõrve 2008 / Nicholas Wurm, Steven Buchert, Mai Buchert, Sandra Buchert...[jt.

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2008-01-01

    lapsed ja lapsevanemad Austraaliast meenutavad oma viibimist Sõrve lastelaagris: This is a story of a family from Sõrve; Nicholas Wurm - Age 9 (Adelaide); Alan and Debbie Mikkor (Melbourne); Jesse Mikkor's point of view: Age 8; Lauren Mikkor's point of view: Age 13

  19. Vive Tolli, Andy Warholi põlvkonnast / Vive Tolli ; interv. Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Tolli, Vive, 1928-

    1998-01-01

    Sel aastal Wiiralti preemia saanud V. Tolli eesti graafika tasemest, Eesti Kunstiakadeemia graafikakateedri seisust, haridusest, mis seal saab, eesti praegusest raamatukujundusest, liikumisest suurema lihtsuse suunas oma loomingus jm.

  20. Vikergallup : eesti kirjandus 2010 / Peeter Helme, Sandra Jõgeva, Mihkel Kaevats ... [jt.

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2011-01-01

    24 arvustaja vastus küsimusele, milline oli 2010. aasta parim uudisteos ja debüüt. Parima uudisteosena nimetati enim Kalju Kruusa luulekogu "Tühhja", Ene Mihkelsoni luulekogu "Torn" ning Lauri Sommeri proosaraamatut "Kolm yksiklast". Parimaks debüüdiks peeti Siim Nurkliku näidendit "Kas ma olen nüüd elus".

  1. Andres Elbingu gängstaräpp avas Polymeris ajutise alternatiivkino / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    1.-22. veebruarini 2008 toimub Tallinnas Nongrata Kunstikonteineris Kultuuritehases Polymer Eesti Kunstiakadeemia interdistsiplinaarsete kunstide kateedri ja Pärnu filmi- ja videofestivali korraldatav alternatiivkino "La Cinema Extraordinaire"

  2. Thatcheri tütar avalikustas Raudse Leedi nõdrameelsuse / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    Ilmunud ka: Postimees : na russkom jazõke 26. aug. 2008, lk. 9. Suurbritannia endise peaministri Margaret Thatcheri tütar Carol Thatcher kirjutab peatselt ilmuvas mälestusteraamatus oma ema dementsusest

  3. Dynamics beetween 'old' and 'new' ethnicities and multiple identities in Sandra Cisneros' Caramelo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Branka Kalogjera

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper takes Candra Cisneros'  epic semi-biographical novel Caramelo asa literary insight into dynamics  between generations  within  a single ethnic (Chicano  community,  and compares  it against classics  of the genre in its shifting  definition  of one's  ethnic identity;  here the postmodern approach of entwining fiction and fact and awarding them equallegitimacy mirrors the possibility of embracing multiple identities, as exemplified by the novel's protagonist.

  4. Sõrve 2008 / Nicholas Wurm, Steven Buchert, Mai Buchert, Sandra Buchert...[jt.

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2008-01-01

    lapsed ja lapsevanemad Austraaliast meenutavad oma viibimist Sõrve lastelaagris: This is a story of a family from Sõrve; Nicholas Wurm - Age 9 (Adelaide); Alan and Debbie Mikkor (Melbourne); Jesse Mikkor's point of view: Age 8; Lauren Mikkor's point of view: Age 13

  5. Haiglavoodisse sattunud patsiendid küsivad internetti / Nils Niitra, Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Niitra, Nils, 1975-

    2006-01-01

    Vt. ka Tartu Postimees 16. juuni, lk. 1 ; Postimees : na russkom jazõke 19. juuni, lk. 9. Pärnu haiglas saavad kõik patsiendid, kel tervis lubab, palatis sülearvutiga traadita internetti kasutada. Tartu ja Tallinna haiglates levib WiFi esialgu tagasihoidlikumalt - kui üldse, siis ainult osas ruumidest

  6. Haiglavoodisse sattunud patsiendid küsivad internetti / Nils Niitra, Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Niitra, Nils, 1975-

    2006-01-01

    Vt. ka Tartu Postimees 16. juuni, lk. 1 ; Postimees : na russkom jazõke 19. juuni, lk. 9. Pärnu haiglas saavad kõik patsiendid, kel tervis lubab, palatis sülearvutiga traadita internetti kasutada. Tartu ja Tallinna haiglates levib WiFi esialgu tagasihoidlikumalt - kui üldse, siis ainult osas ruumidest

  7. Janez Jansha. Euroopa oivik tõrjub solgiämbreid / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    2004. a. paremtsentristliku Demokraatliku Partei juhina valimistel võitnud Janez Jansha on populaarsust kaotamas ning peatsed valimised ei tõota ennustuste põhjal erilist edu. Dissidendist kõvakäemeheks. Korruptsioonisüüdistused seoses Soome relvafirma tehinguga

  8. Austraalia eeskuju paneks tudengid kooli eest võrdselt maksma / Sandra Maasalu, Priit Rajalo

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2007-01-01

    OECD raportis Eestile soovitatud süsteemis maksaksid kõik üliõpilased oma osa õppemaksust ise kinni ja saaksid valitsuselt toetust. Küsimusele, kas oleks õiglasem, kui kõik tudengid maksaksid õpingute eest, vastavad Tartu Ülikooli rektor Alar Karis, Tallinna Ülikooli rektor Rein Raud, Audentese rektori kohusetäitja Peeter Müürsepp, kaitseminister Jaak Aaviksoo ja Eesti Üliõpilaskondade Liidu juhatuse esimees Eimar Veldre. Tallinna Ülikooli tudengid Grete Sõõrumaa ning Karl Kallastu on ühel meelel, et Eesti praegune süsteem on ebavõrdne

  9. Andres Elbingu gängstaräpp avas Polymeris ajutise alternatiivkino / Sandra Jõgeva

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jõgeva, Sandra, 1976-

    2008-01-01

    1.-22. veebruarini 2008 toimub Tallinnas Nongrata Kunstikonteineris Kultuuritehases Polymer Eesti Kunstiakadeemia interdistsiplinaarsete kunstide kateedri ja Pärnu filmi- ja videofestivali korraldatav alternatiivkino "La Cinema Extraordinaire"

  10. Üliõpilasesindajad võtsid vastu resolutsiooni välistudengite kaitseks / Sandra Saar

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Saar, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Eesti Üliõpilaskondade Liidu eestvedamisel toimunud Balti- ja Põhjamaade üliõpilaste kohtumisest, kus võeti vastu otsus äärmuste osas kelle tegevuse tõttu on ohustatud rahvusvaheliste üliõpilaste heaolu

  11. Rezension zu: Sandra Witte: Zouber. Hamburg: Verlag Dr. Kovač 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Sieber

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Die Freiburger Dissertation widmet sich dem Faszinosum Magie am Beispiel der höfischen Literatur des 12. und 13. Jahrhunderts. Im Zentrum steht die deskriptive Analyse von Magiedarstellungen auf der Handlungsebene fiktionaler Texte, wobei ein besonderes Augenmerk auf Geschlechterdifferenzen magiekundiger Figuren liegt. Vorab werden mögliche Schnittflächen zu zeitgenössischen Diskursen in den Bereichen Religion, Wissenschaft und Heilkunde konturiert und diese um Skizzen zu ausgewählten nichtfiktionalen Quellen ergänzt. Leider verschenkt die mediävistische Studie durch ihren überwiegend nacherzählenden Duktus das in der Magie-Thematik inhärente gender-theoretische und kulturwissenschaftliche Potential.

  12. Aircraft noise prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippone, Antonio

    2014-07-01

    This contribution addresses the state-of-the-art in the field of aircraft noise prediction, simulation and minimisation. The point of view taken in this context is that of comprehensive models that couple the various aircraft systems with the acoustic sources, the propagation and the flight trajectories. After an exhaustive review of the present predictive technologies in the relevant fields (airframe, propulsion, propagation, aircraft operations, trajectory optimisation), the paper addresses items for further research and development. Examples are shown for several airplanes, including the Airbus A319-100 (CFM engines), the Bombardier Dash8-Q400 (PW150 engines, Dowty R408 propellers) and the Boeing B737-800 (CFM engines). Predictions are done with the flight mechanics code FLIGHT. The transfer function between flight mechanics and the noise prediction is discussed in some details, along with the numerical procedures for validation and verification. Some code-to-code comparisons are shown. It is contended that the field of aircraft noise prediction has not yet reached a sufficient level of maturity. In particular, some parametric effects cannot be investigated, issues of accuracy are not currently addressed, and validation standards are still lacking.

  13. Predicting tile drainage discharge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Petersen, Rasmus Jes;

    of the water load coming from the tile drainage system is therefore essential. This work aims at predicting tile drainage discharge using dynamic as well as a statistical predictive models. A large dataset of historical tile drain discharge data, daily discharge values as well as yearly average values were......More than 50 % of Danish agricultural areas are expected to be artificial tile drained. Transport of water and nutrients through the tile drain system to the aquatic environment is expected to be significant. For different mitigation strategies such as constructed wetlands an exact knowledge...... used in the analysis. For the dynamic modelling, a simple linear reservoir model was used where different outlets in the model represented tile drain as well as groundwater discharge outputs. This modelling was based on daily measured tile drain discharge values. The statistical predictive model...

  14. Predicting Ideological Prejudice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Mark J.

    2017-01-01

    A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants’ ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a representative sample of Americans (N = 4,940) and tested against models using the perceived status of and choice to belong to the target group as predictors. In four studies (total N = 2,093), ideology-prejudice associations were estimated, and these observed estimates were compared with the models’ predictions. The model that was based only on perceived ideology was the most parsimonious with the smallest errors. PMID:28394693

  15. Partially predictable chaos

    CERN Document Server

    Wernecke, Hendrik; Gros, Claudius

    2016-01-01

    For a chaotic system pairs of initially close-by trajectories become eventually fully uncorrelated on the attracting set. This process of decorrelation is split into an initial decrease characterized by the maximal Lyapunov exponent and a subsequent diffusive process on the chaotic attractor causing the final loss of predictability. The time scales of both processes can be either of the same or of very different orders of magnitude. In the latter case the two trajectories linger within a finite but small distance (with respect to the overall size of the attractor) for exceedingly long times and therefore remain partially predictable. We introduce a 0-1 indicator for chaos capable of describing this scenario, arguing, in addition, that the chaotic closed braids found close to a period-doubling transition are generically partially predictable.

  16. Predicting Anthracycline Benefit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, John M S; McConkey, Christopher C; Munro, Alison F

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite as measu......PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite...

  17. Prediction of Antibody Epitopes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Marcatili, Paolo

    2015-01-01

    Antibodies recognize their cognate antigens in a precise and effective way. In order to do so, they target regions of the antigenic molecules that have specific features such as large exposed areas, presence of charged or polar atoms, specific secondary structure elements, and lack of similarity...... to self-proteins. Given the sequence or the structure of a protein of interest, several methods exploit such features to predict the residues that are more likely to be recognized by an immunoglobulin.Here, we present two methods (BepiPred and DiscoTope) to predict linear and discontinuous antibody...

  18. Linguistic Structure Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Noah A

    2011-01-01

    A major part of natural language processing now depends on the use of text data to build linguistic analyzers. We consider statistical, computational approaches to modeling linguistic structure. We seek to unify across many approaches and many kinds of linguistic structures. Assuming a basic understanding of natural language processing and/or machine learning, we seek to bridge the gap between the two fields. Approaches to decoding (i.e., carrying out linguistic structure prediction) and supervised and unsupervised learning of models that predict discrete structures as outputs are the focus. W

  19. Nuclear level density predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bucurescu Dorel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Simple formulas depending only on nuclear masses were previously proposed for the parameters of the Back-Shifted Fermi Gas (BSFG model and of the Constant Temperature (CT model of the nuclear level density, respectively. They are now applied for the prediction of the level density parameters of all nuclei with available masses. Both masses from the new 2012 mass table and from different models are considered and the predictions are discussed in connection with nuclear regions most affected by shell corrections and nuclear structure effects and relevant for the nucleosynthesis.

  20. Basis of predictive mycology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dantigny, Philippe; Guilmart, Audrey; Bensoussan, Maurice

    2005-04-15

    For over 20 years, predictive microbiology focused on food-pathogenic bacteria. Few studies concerned modelling fungal development. On one hand, most of food mycologists are not familiar with modelling techniques; on the other hand, people involved in modelling are developing tools dedicated to bacteria. Therefore, there is a tendency to extend the use of models that were developed for bacteria to moulds. However, some mould specificities should be taken into account. The use of specific models for predicting germination and growth of fungi was advocated previously []. This paper provides a short review of fungal modelling studies.

  1. A Characterization of Prediction Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Meek, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    Understanding prediction errors and determining how to fix them is critical to building effective predictive systems. In this paper, we delineate four types of prediction errors and demonstrate that these four types characterize all prediction errors. In addition, we describe potential remedies and tools that can be used to reduce the uncertainty when trying to determine the source of a prediction error and when trying to take action to remove a prediction errors.

  2. Predicting Classroom Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Ronald P.

    A study was conducted at Rancho Santiago College (RSC) to identify personal and academic factors that are predictive of students' success in their courses. The study examined the following possible predictors of success: language and math test scores; background characteristics; length of time out of high school; high school background; college…

  3. Genetically optimizing weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, S. B.; Staats, Kai; Romero-Colmenero, Encarni

    2016-07-01

    humidity, air pressure, wind speed and wind direction) into a database. Built upon this database, we have developed a remarkably simple approach to derive a functional weather predictor. The aim is provide up to the minute local weather predictions in order to e.g. prepare dome environment conditions ready for night time operations or plan, prioritize and update weather dependent observing queues. In order to predict the weather for the next 24 hours, we take the current live weather readings and search the entire archive for similar conditions. Predictions are made against an averaged, subsequent 24 hours of the closest matches for the current readings. We use an Evolutionary Algorithm to optimize our formula through weighted parameters. The accuracy of the predictor is routinely tested and tuned against the full, updated archive to account for seasonal trends and total, climate shifts. The live (updated every 5 minutes) SALT weather predictor can be viewed here: http://www.saao.ac.za/ sbp/suthweather_predict.html

  4. PREDICTION OF OVULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUYong; CHENSu-Ru; ZHOUJin-Ting; LIUJi-Ying

    1989-01-01

    The purpose or this research is: I) to observe the secretory pattern of five reproductive hormones in Chinese women with normal menstrual cyclcs, especially at the prc-ovulatory peroid; 2) to study whether urinary LH measurement could be used instead of serum LH measurement; 3) to evaluate the significance of LH-EIA kit (Right-Day) for ovulation prediction.

  5. Prediction method abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    This conference was held December 4--8, 1994 in Asilomar, California. The purpose of this meeting was to provide a forum for exchange of state-of-the-art information concerning the prediction of protein structure. Attention if focused on the following: comparative modeling; sequence to fold assignment; and ab initio folding.

  6. Predictive models in urology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cestari, Andrea

    2013-01-01

    Predictive modeling is emerging as an important knowledge-based technology in healthcare. The interest in the use of predictive modeling reflects advances on different fronts such as the availability of health information from increasingly complex databases and electronic health records, a better understanding of causal or statistical predictors of health, disease processes and multifactorial models of ill-health and developments in nonlinear computer models using artificial intelligence or neural networks. These new computer-based forms of modeling are increasingly able to establish technical credibility in clinical contexts. The current state of knowledge is still quite young in understanding the likely future direction of how this so-called 'machine intelligence' will evolve and therefore how current relatively sophisticated predictive models will evolve in response to improvements in technology, which is advancing along a wide front. Predictive models in urology are gaining progressive popularity not only for academic and scientific purposes but also into the clinical practice with the introduction of several nomograms dealing with the main fields of onco-urology.

  7. Predicting Visibility of Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Ramirez, Cesar V.; Salud, Ellen

    2009-01-01

    Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO). In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration. PMID:19462007

  8. 'Red Flag' Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

    This conceptual article introduces a new way to predict firm performance based on aggregation of sensing among frontline employees about changes in operational capabilities to update strategic action plans and generate innovations. We frame the approach in the context of first- and second-generat...

  9. Hypotheses and Inductive Predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ROMEYN, J.-W.

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT. This paper studies the use of hypotheses schemes in generating inductive predictions. After discussing Carnap–Hintikka inductive logic, hypotheses schemes are defined and illustrated with two partitions. One partition results in the Carnapian continuum of inductive methods, the other resul

  10. Vertebral Fracture Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2008-01-01

    Vertebral Fracture Prediction A method of processing data derived from an image of at least part of a spine is provided for estimating the risk of a future fracture in vertebraeof the spine. Position data relating to at least four neighbouring vertebrae of the spine is processed. The curvature...

  11. Predicting rainfall beyond tomorrow

    Science.gov (United States)

    NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues climate precipitation forecasts that offer potential support for water resource managers and farmers and ranchers in New Mexico, but the forecasts are frequently misunderstood and not widely used in practical decision making. The objectives of this newsletter ...

  12. Neurological abnormalities predict disability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poggesi, Anna; Gouw, Alida; van der Flier, Wiesje

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the role of neurological abnormalities and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions in predicting global functional decline in a cohort of initially independent-living elderly subjects. The Leukoaraiosis And DISability (LADIS) Study, involving 11 European centres, was primarily aimed...

  13. Predicting coronary heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have been...

  14. Hypotheses and Inductive Predictions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ROMEYN, J.-W.

    2008-01-01

    ABSTRACT. This paper studies the use of hypotheses schemes in generating inductive predictions. After discussing Carnap–Hintikka inductive logic, hypotheses schemes are defined and illustrated with two partitions. One partition results in the Carnapian continuum of inductive methods, the other resul

  15. Predicting Intrinsic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Rob; Kirschner, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    Intrinsic motivation can be predicted from participants' perceptions of the social environment and the task environment (Ryan & Deci, 2000)in terms of control, relatedness and competence. To determine the degree of independence of these factors 251 students in higher vocational education (physiotherapy and hotel management) indicated the extent to…

  16. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  17. Highlights, predictions, and changes

    OpenAIRE

    Jeang Kuan-Teh

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Recent literature highlights at Retrovirology are described. Predictions are made regarding “hot” retrovirology research trends for the coming year based on recent journal access statistics. Changes in Retrovirology editor and the frequency of the Retrovirology Prize are announced.

  18. Predicting Reasoning from Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heit, Evan; Hayes, Brett K.

    2011-01-01

    In an effort to assess the relations between reasoning and memory, in 8 experiments, the authors examined how well responses on an inductive reasoning task are predicted from responses on a recognition memory task for the same picture stimuli. Across several experimental manipulations, such as varying study time, presentation frequency, and the…

  19. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes written to ... model predictive control, linear systems, discrete-time systems, ... and then compute very rapidly for this open-loop con-.

  20. THE PREDICTION OF OVULATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANGXin-Xing; ZHAShu-Wei; WUZhou-Ya

    1989-01-01

    The authors present their work on the prediction of ovulation in forty-five women with normal menstrual cycles for a total of 72 cycles by several indices, including ultrasonography, BBT graph, cervical mucus and mittelschmerz, LH peak values were also determined for reference in 20 cases ( 20 cycles ), Results are as follows:

  1. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jorgensen, C.B.; Suetens, S.; Tyran, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the "law of small numbers" using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto

  2. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...

  3. Predictability of Solar Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mares, Peter; Balasubramaniam, K. S.

    2009-05-01

    Solar flares are significant drivers of space weather. With the availability of high cadence solar chromospheric and photospheric data from the USAF's Optical Solar PAtrol Network (OSPAN; photosphere and chromosphere imaging) Telescope and the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG; photosphere magnetic imaging), at the National Solar Observatory, we have gained insights into potential uses of the data for solar flare prediction. We apply the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to parameterize the flaring system and extract consistent observables at solar chromospheric and photospheric layers that indicate a viable recognition of flaring activity. Rather than limiting ourselves to a few known indicators of solar activity, PCA helps us to characterize the entire system using several tens of variables for each observed layer. The components of the Eigen vectors derived from PCA help us recognize and quantify innate characteristics of solar flares and compare them. We will present an analysis of these results to explore the viability of PCA to assist in predicting solar flares.

  4. Crystal structure and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakur, Tejender S; Dubey, Ritesh; Desiraju, Gautam R

    2015-04-01

    The notion of structure is central to the subject of chemistry. This review traces the development of the idea of crystal structure since the time when a crystal structure could be determined from a three-dimensional diffraction pattern and assesses the feasibility of computationally predicting an unknown crystal structure of a given molecule. Crystal structure prediction is of considerable fundamental and applied importance, and its successful execution is by no means a solved problem. The ease of crystal structure determination today has resulted in the availability of large numbers of crystal structures of higher-energy polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs. These structural libraries lead to the concept of a crystal structure landscape. A crystal structure of a compound may accordingly be taken as a data point in such a landscape.

  5. Chaos detection and predictability

    CERN Document Server

    Gottwald, Georg; Laskar, Jacques

    2016-01-01

    Distinguishing chaoticity from regularity in deterministic dynamical systems and specifying the subspace of the phase space in which instabilities are expected to occur is of utmost importance in as disparate areas as astronomy, particle physics and climate dynamics.   To address these issues there exists a plethora of methods for chaos detection and predictability. The most commonly employed technique for investigating chaotic dynamics, i.e. the computation of Lyapunov exponents, however, may suffer a number of problems and drawbacks, for example when applied to noisy experimental data.   In the last two decades, several novel methods have been developed for the fast and reliable determination of the regular or chaotic nature of orbits, aimed at overcoming the shortcomings of more traditional techniques. This set of lecture notes and tutorial reviews serves as an introduction to and overview of modern chaos detection and predictability techniques for graduate students and non-specialists.   The book cover...

  6. Predicting Bankruptcy in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul RASHID

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to identify the financial ratios that are most significant in bankruptcy prediction for the non-financial sector of Pakistan based on a sample of companies which became bankrupt over the time period 1996-2006. Twenty four financial ratios covering four important financial attributes, namely profitability, liquidity, leverage, and turnover ratios, were examined for a five-year period prior bankruptcy. The discriminant analysis produced a parsimonious model of three variables viz. sales to total assets, EBIT to current liabilities, and cash flow ratio. Our estimates provide evidence that the firms having Z-value below zero fall into the “bankrupt” whereas the firms with Z-value above zero fall into the “non-bankrupt” category. The model achieved 76.9% prediction accuracy when it is applied to forecast bankruptcies on the underlying sample.

  7. Prediction of delayed subsidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, K.

    A predictive model of delayed subsidence is discussed. A numerical implementation is tested on one of the best-described study areas, Allegheny County in Pennsylvania. In planning insurance of restitution measures, a predictive model is of value in estimating the magnitude of the problem and the size of long-term budgetary commitments. Contrary to active subsidence, which occurs concurrently with mining operations, or is completed within a few days following coal extraction, delayed subsidence may take many years to appear at the surface after coal mines are abandoned. There are two principal morphological types of delayed subsidence: troughs, which are shallow depressions, and sinks, which are steep-sided crown pits. Both types are damaging to surface structures, and a variety of methods were introduced to deal with the problem, ranging from subsidence insurance to site restitution.

  8. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  9. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    affect the accuracy of analysts´earnings forecasts. Finally, the objective of the dissertation is to investigate how the stock market is affected by the accuracy of corporate earnings projections. The dissertation contributes to a deeper understanding of these issues. First, it is shown how earnings...... of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the dissertation shows how the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of information about corporate earnings depends on how well corporate earnings can be predicted. The dissertation indicates that the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of earnings...... forecasts are not more accurate than the simpler forecasts based on a historical timeseries of earnings. Secondly, the dissertation shows how accounting standards affect analysts’ earnings predictions. Accounting conservatism contributes to a more volatile earnings process, which lowers the accuracy...

  10. Prediction of the

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasenjit Dey

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The aerodynamic behavior of a square cylinder with rounded corner edges in steady flow regime in the range of Reynolds number (Re 5–45; is predicted by Artificial Neural Network (ANN using MATLAB. The ANN has trained by back propagation algorithm. The ANN requires input and output data to train the network, which is obtained from the commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD software FLUENT in the present study. In FLUENT, all the governing equations are discretized by the finite volume method. Results from numerical simulation and back propagation based ANN have been compared. It has been discovered that the ANN predicts the aerodynamic behavior correctly within the given range of the training data. It is additionally observed that back propagation based ANN is an effective tool to forecast the aerodynamic behavior than simulation, that has very much longer computational time.

  11. Reliability prediction techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whittaker, B.; Worthington, B.; Lord, J.F.; Pinkard, D.

    1986-01-01

    The paper demonstrates the feasibility of applying reliability assessment techniques to mining equipment. A number of techniques are identified and described and examples of their use in assessing mining equipment are given. These techniques include: reliability prediction; failure analysis; design audit; maintainability; availability and the life cycle costing. Specific conclusions regarding the usefulness of each technique are outlined. The choice of techniques depends upon both the type of equipment being assessed and its stage of development, with numerical prediction best suited for electronic equipment and fault analysis and design audit suited to mechanical equipment. Reliability assessments involve much detailed and time consuming work but it has been demonstrated that the resulting reliability improvements lead to savings in service costs which more than offset the cost of the evaluation.

  12. From Prediction to Process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kristian Steensen

    2017-01-01

    and highlighting the relevance of self-regulation for environmental behavior change. The article focuses on the two primary components of self-regulation: goal setting and goal striving. Self-regulation research differs from the prediction models commonly employed in environmental research (e.g. theory of planned...... behavior or value-belief-norm theory), as it focuses on the dynamic psychological mechanisms that result in either success or failure in acting relative to a certain standard or goal. Similar to the intention-behavior gap, self-regulation research recognizes the occasional failure of people to adhere...... to their own environmental standards and goals. However, unlike prediction models, self-regulation research gives directions on how to reduce the frequency by which these failures occur....

  13. Predictability of Critical Transitions

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Xiaozhu; Hallerberg, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Critical transitions in multistable systems have been discussed as models for a variety of phenomena ranging from the extinctions of species to socio-economic changes and climate transitions between ice-ages and warm-ages. From bifurcation theory we can expect certain critical transitions to be preceded by a decreased recovery from external perturbations. The consequences of this critical slowing down have been observed as an increase in variance and autocorrelation prior to the transition. However especially in the presence of noise it is not clear, whether these changes in observation variables are statistically relevant such that they could be used as indicators for critical transitions. In this contribution we investigate the predictability of critical transitions in conceptual models. We study the the quadratic integrate-and-fire model and the van der Pol model, under the influence of external noise. We focus especially on the statistical analysis of the success of predictions and the overall predictabil...

  14. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Claus Bjørn; Suetens, Sigrid; Tyran, Jean-Robert

    We investigate the “law of small numbers” using a unique panel data set on lotto gambling. Because we can track individual players over time, we can measure how they react to outcomes of recent lotto drawings. We can therefore test whether they behave as if they believe they can predict lotto...... numbers based on recent drawings. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week without regards of numbers drawn or anything else, we find that those who do change, act on average in the way predicted by the law of small numbers as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular......, on average they move away from numbers that have recently been drawn, as suggested by the “gambler’s fallacy”, and move toward numbers that are on streak, i.e. have been drawn several weeks in a row, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy”....

  15. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  16. Predictive dynamic digital holography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulaiman, Sennan; Gibson, Steve; Spencer, Mark

    2016-09-01

    Digital holography has received recent attention for many imaging and sensing applications, including imaging through turbulent and turbid media, adaptive optics, three dimensional projective display technology and optical tweezing. A significant obstacle for digital holography in real-time applications, such as wavefront sensing for high energy laser systems and high speed imaging for target tracking, is the fact that digital holography is computationally intensive; it requires iterative virtual wavefront propagation and hill-climbing to optimize some sharpness criteria. This paper demonstrates real-time methods for digital holography based on approaches developed recently at UCLA for optimal and adaptive identification, prediction, and control of optical wavefronts. The methods presented integrate minimum variance wavefront prediction into digital holography schemes to short-circuit the computationally intensive algorithms for iterative propagation of virtual wavefronts and hill climbing for sharpness optimization.

  17. Comparing Spatial Predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Hering, Amanda S.

    2011-11-01

    Under a general loss function, we develop a hypothesis test to determine whether a significant difference in the spatial predictions produced by two competing models exists on average across the entire spatial domain of interest. The null hypothesis is that of no difference, and a spatial loss differential is created based on the observed data, the two sets of predictions, and the loss function chosen by the researcher. The test assumes only isotropy and short-range spatial dependence of the loss differential but does allow it to be non-Gaussian, non-zero-mean, and spatially correlated. Constant and nonconstant spatial trends in the loss differential are treated in two separate cases. Monte Carlo simulations illustrate the size and power properties of this test, and an example based on daily average wind speeds in Oklahoma is used for illustration. Supplemental results are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Qualitys.

  18. Predicting appointment breaking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, A G; Talaga, J

    1995-01-01

    The goal of physician referral services is to schedule appointments, but if too many patients fail to show up, the value of the service will be compromised. The authors found that appointment breaking can be predicted by the number of days to the scheduled appointment, the doctor's specialty, and the patient's age and gender. They also offer specific suggestions for modifying the marketing mix to reduce the incidence of no-shows.

  19. Nominal model predictive control

    OpenAIRE

    Grüne, Lars

    2013-01-01

    5 p., to appear in Encyclopedia of Systems and Control, Tariq Samad, John Baillieul (eds.); International audience; Model Predictive Control is a controller design method which synthesizes a sampled data feedback controller from the iterative solution of open loop optimal control problems.We describe the basic functionality of MPC controllers, their properties regarding feasibility, stability and performance and the assumptions needed in order to rigorously ensure these properties in a nomina...

  20. Prediction of Algebraic Instabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaretzky, Paula; King, Kristina; Hill, Nicole; Keithley, Kimberlee; Barlow, Nathaniel; Weinstein, Steven; Cromer, Michael

    2016-11-01

    A widely unexplored type of hydrodynamic instability is examined - large-time algebraic growth. Such growth occurs on the threshold of (exponentially) neutral stability. A new methodology is provided for predicting the algebraic growth rate of an initial disturbance, when applied to the governing differential equation (or dispersion relation) describing wave propagation in dispersive media. Several types of algebraic instabilities are explored in the context of both linear and nonlinear waves.

  1. Multivariate respiratory motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dürichen, R.; Wissel, T.; Ernst, F.; Schlaefer, A.; Schweikard, A.

    2014-10-01

    In extracranial robotic radiotherapy, tumour motion is compensated by tracking external and internal surrogates. To compensate system specific time delays, time series prediction of the external optical surrogates is used. We investigate whether the prediction accuracy can be increased by expanding the current clinical setup by an accelerometer, a strain belt and a flow sensor. Four previously published prediction algorithms are adapted to multivariate inputs—normalized least mean squares (nLMS), wavelet-based least mean squares (wLMS), support vector regression (SVR) and relevance vector machines (RVM)—and evaluated for three different prediction horizons. The measurement involves 18 subjects and consists of two phases, focusing on long term trends (M1) and breathing artefacts (M2). To select the most relevant and least redundant sensors, a sequential forward selection (SFS) method is proposed. Using a multivariate setting, the results show that the clinically used nLMS algorithm is susceptible to large outliers. In the case of irregular breathing (M2), the mean root mean square error (RMSE) of a univariate nLMS algorithm is 0.66 mm and can be decreased to 0.46 mm by a multivariate RVM model (best algorithm on average). To investigate the full potential of this approach, the optimal sensor combination was also estimated on the complete test set. The results indicate that a further decrease in RMSE is possible for RVM (to 0.42 mm). This motivates further research about sensor selection methods. Besides the optical surrogates, the sensors most frequently selected by the algorithms are the accelerometer and the strain belt. These sensors could be easily integrated in the current clinical setup and would allow a more precise motion compensation.

  2. Characterization of Mesoscale Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    assimilation to either create pairs of different initial conditions (Bei and Zhang 2007, Mapes et al. 2008) or to initialize a large ensemble (Durran et...curves over all wave numbers where the error had not yet saturated. Following the terminology suggested by Mapes et al. (2008), the evolution of... Mapes , B., S. Tulich, T. Nasuno, and M. Satoh, 2008: Predictability aspects of global aqua- planet simulations with explicit convection. J. Meteor. Soc

  3. Nominal Model Predictive Control

    OpenAIRE

    Grüne, Lars

    2014-01-01

    5 p., to appear in Encyclopedia of Systems and Control, Tariq Samad, John Baillieul (eds.); International audience; Model Predictive Control is a controller design method which synthesizes a sampled data feedback controller from the iterative solution of open loop optimal control problems.We describe the basic functionality of MPC controllers, their properties regarding feasibility, stability and performance and the assumptions needed in order to rigorously ensure these properties in a nomina...

  4. Predictive Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolpert, David H.

    2005-01-01

    Probability theory governs the outcome of a game; there is a distribution over mixed strat.'s, not a single "equilibrium". To predict a single mixed strategy must use our loss function (external to the game's players. Provides a quantification of any strategy's rationality. Prove rationality falls as cost of computation rises (for players who have not previously interacted). All extends to games with varying numbers of players.

  5. Time-predictable architectures

    CERN Document Server

    Rochange, Christine; Uhrig , Sascha

    2014-01-01

    Building computers that can be used to design embedded real-time systems is the subject of this title. Real-time embedded software requires increasingly higher performances. The authors therefore consider processors that implement advanced mechanisms such as pipelining, out-of-order execution, branch prediction, cache memories, multi-threading, multicorearchitectures, etc. The authors of this book investigate the timepredictability of such schemes.

  6. Predicting Human Cooperation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John J Nay

    Full Text Available The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection, when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

  7. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  8. Kuiper Belt Occultation Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Fraser, Wesley C; Trujillo, Chad; Stephens, Andrew W; Kavelaars, JJ; Brown, Michael E; Bianco, Federica B; Boyle, Richard P; Brucker, Melissa J; Hetherington, Nathan; Joner, Michael; Keel, William C; Langill, Phil P; Lister, Tim; McMillan, Russet J; Young, Leslie

    2013-01-01

    Here we present observations of 7 large Kuiper Belt Objects. From these observations, we extract a point source catalog with $\\sim0.01"$ precision, and astrometry of our target Kuiper Belt Objects with $0.04-0.08"$ precision within that catalog. We have developed a new technique to predict the future occurrence of stellar occultations by Kuiper Belt Objects. The technique makes use of a maximum likelihood approach which determines the best-fit adjustment to cataloged orbital elements of an object. Using simulations of a theoretical object, we discuss the merits and weaknesses of this technique compared to the commonly adopted ephemeris offset approach. We demonstrate that both methods suffer from separate weaknesses, and thus, together provide a fair assessment of the true uncertainty in a particular prediction. We present occultation predictions made by both methods for the 7 tracked objects, with dates as late as 2015. Finally, we discuss observations of three separate close passages of Quaoar to field star...

  9. Is Suicide Predictable?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Asmaee

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Background:The current study aimed to test the hypothesis: Is suicide predictable? And try to classify the predictive factors in multiple suicide attempts.Methods:A cross-sectional study was administered to 223 multiple attempters, women who came to a medical poison centre after a suicide attempt.The participants were young, poor, and single.A Logistic Regression Analiysis was used to classify the predictive factors of suicide.Results:Women who had multiple suicide attempts exhibited a significant tendency to attempt suicide again. They had a history for more than two years of multiple suicide attempts, from three to as many as 18 times, plus mental illnesses such as depression and substance abuse.They also had a positive history of mental illnesses.Conclusion:Results indicate that contributing factors for another suicide attempt include previous suicide attempts, mental illness (depression,or a positive history of mental illnesses in the family affecting them at a young age, and substance abuse.

  10. Prediction of resonant oscillation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2010-01-01

    The invention relates to methods for prediction of parametric rolling of vessels. The methods are based on frequency domain and time domain information in order do set up a detector able to trigger an alarm when parametric roll is likely to occur. The methods use measurements of e.g. pitch and roll...... oscillations and compare the measured oscillations using FFT analysis of signal correlations, variance analysis of signals and other comparisons. As an example, the presence of a growing peak around a frequency that doubles the roll natural frequency indicates the possibility that parametric roll is going...

  11. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior....... Employee characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work condition are included in the extended model. A survey was handed out to 654 employees in Chinese factories. This research contributes by demonstrating how employee- characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work...... condition influence their sustainable work behavior. A new definition of sustainable work behavior is proposed....

  12. Foundations of predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, James

    2012-01-01

    Drawing on the authors' two decades of experience in applied modeling and data mining, Foundations of Predictive Analytics presents the fundamental background required for analyzing data and building models for many practical applications, such as consumer behavior modeling, risk and marketing analytics, and other areas. It also discusses a variety of practical topics that are frequently missing from similar texts. The book begins with the statistical and linear algebra/matrix foundation of modeling methods, from distributions to cumulant and copula functions to Cornish--Fisher expansion and o

  13. Consciousness -- A Verifiable Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panchapakesan, N.

    2014-07-01

    Consciousness may or may not be completely within the realm of science. We have argued elsewhere that there is a high probability that it is not within the purview of science, just like humanities and arts are outside science. Even social sciences do not come under science when human interactions are involved. Here, we suggest a possible experiment to decide whether it is part of science. We suggest that a scientific signal may be available to investigate the prediction in the form of an electromagnetic brainwave background radiation.

  14. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jørgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ‘hot-hand fallacy’.......We investigate the ‘law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers...

  15. Epitope prediction methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karosiene, Edita

    on machine learning techniques. Several MHC class I binding prediction algorithms have been developed and due to their high accuracy they are used by many immunologists to facilitate the conventional experimental process of epitope discovery. However, the accuracy of these methods depends on data defining...... the NetMHCIIpan-3.0 predictor based on artificial neural networks, which is capable of giving binding affinities to any human MHC class II molecule. Chapter 4 of this thesis gives an overview of bioinformatics tools developed by the Immunological Bioinformatics group at Center for Biological Sequence...

  16. Predicting photothermal field performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, C. C.; Ross, R. G., Jr.

    1984-01-01

    Photothermal field performance in flat plate solar collectors was predicted. An analytical model which incorporates the measured dependency between transmittance loss and UV and temperature exposure levels was developed. The model uses SOLMET weather data extrapolated to 30 years for various sites and module mounting configurations. It is concluded that the temperature is the key to photothermally induced transmittance loss. The sensitivity of transmittance loss to UV level is nonlinear with minimum in curve near one sun. The ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) results are consistent with 30 year life allocation.

  17. Towards Predictive Association Theories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    2011-01-01

    Association equations of state like SAFT, CPA and NRHB have been previously applied to many complex mixtures. In this work we focus on two of these models, the CPA and the NRHB equations of state and the emphasis is on the analysis of their predictive capabilities for a wide range of applications...... and water–MEG–aliphatic hydrocarbons LLE using interaction parameters obtained from the binary data alone. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the NRHB equation of state is a versatile tool which can be employed equally well to mixtures with pharmaceuticals and solvents, including mixed solvents, as well...

  18. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...

  19. Predicting Lotto Numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Suetens, Sigrid; Galbo-Jørgensen, Claus B.; Tyran, Jean-Robert Karl

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the ‘law of small numbers’ using a data set on lotto gambling that allows us to measure players’ reactions to draws. While most players pick the same set of numbers week after week, we find that those who do change react on average as predicted by the law of small numbers...... as formalized in recent behavioral theory. In particular, players tend to bet less on numbers that have been drawn in the preceding week, as suggested by the ‘gambler’s fallacy’, and bet more on a number if it was frequently drawn in the recent past, consistent with the ‘hot-hand fallacy’....

  20. Prediction of Biomolecular Complexes

    KAUST Repository

    Vangone, Anna

    2017-04-12

    Almost all processes in living organisms occur through specific interactions between biomolecules. Any dysfunction of those interactions can lead to pathological events. Understanding such interactions is therefore a crucial step in the investigation of biological systems and a starting point for drug design. In recent years, experimental studies have been devoted to unravel the principles of biomolecular interactions; however, due to experimental difficulties in solving the three-dimensional (3D) structure of biomolecular complexes, the number of available, high-resolution experimental 3D structures does not fulfill the current needs. Therefore, complementary computational approaches to model such interactions are necessary to assist experimentalists since a full understanding of how biomolecules interact (and consequently how they perform their function) only comes from 3D structures which provide crucial atomic details about binding and recognition processes. In this chapter we review approaches to predict biomolecular complexesBiomolecular complexes, introducing the concept of molecular dockingDocking, a technique which uses a combination of geometric, steric and energetics considerations to predict the 3D structure of a biological complex starting from the individual structures of its constituent parts. We provide a mini-guide about docking concepts, its potential and challenges, along with post-docking analysis and a list of related software.

  1. Predicting Alloreactivity in Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsten Geneugelijk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human leukocyte Antigen (HLA mismatching leads to severe complications after solid-organ transplantation and hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. The alloreactive responses underlying the posttransplantation complications include both direct recognition of allogeneic HLA by HLA-specific alloantibodies and T cells and indirect T-cell recognition. However, the immunogenicity of HLA mismatches is highly variable; some HLA mismatches lead to severe clinical B-cell- and T-cell-mediated alloreactivity, whereas others are well tolerated. Definition of the permissibility of HLA mismatches prior to transplantation allows selection of donor-recipient combinations that will have a reduced chance to develop deleterious host-versus-graft responses after solid-organ transplantation and graft-versus-host responses after hematopoietic stem-cell transplantation. Therefore, several methods have been developed to predict permissible HLA-mismatch combinations. In this review we aim to give a comprehensive overview about the current knowledge regarding HLA-directed alloreactivity and several developed in vitro and in silico tools that aim to predict direct and indirect alloreactivity.

  2. Predicting Microsurgical Aptitude.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborn, Heather A; Kuthubutheen, Jafri; Yao, Christopher; Chen, Joseph M; Lin, Vincent Y

    2015-08-01

    Microscopic techniques are an essential part of otolaryngologic practice. These procedures demand advanced psychomotor and visuospatial skills, and trainees possess these abilities to varying degrees. No method currently exists to predict who will possess an aptitude for microscopic surgery. Our goal was to determine whether performance can be predicted by background experiences or skills. Retrospective cohort study. Tertiary academic hospital. Students with no previous surgical experience. Subjects were surveyed on a wide range characteristics thought to affect surgical aptitude, with a primary focus on video gaming and musical training. Subjects performed a microsurgical task using a novel simulator and their performance was assessed by blinded investigators. Forty-six students were assessed. There was no correlation between video gaming and improved microsurgical performance. Rather, video gamers obtained worse scores, although this difference did not reach significance. The majority of students played a musical instrument. Within this group, musicians who began playing at younger ages obtained higher scores, with the highest scores obtained by musicians who began playing before age 6. However, musicians did not obtain higher scores than non-musicians, regardless of their age of initiation. No improvement in microsurgical aptitude was seen in subjects who had a history of video gaming or musical instrument playing.

  3. Energy Predictions 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-10-15

    Even as the recession begins to subside, the energy sector is still likely to experience challenging conditions as we enter 2011. It should be remembered how very important a role energy plays in driving the global economy. Serving as a simple yet global and unified measure of economic recovery, it is oil's price range and the strength and sustainability of the recovery which will impact the ways in which all forms of energy are produced and consumed. The report aims for a closer insight into these predictions: What will happen with M and A (Mergers and Acquisitions) in the energy industry?; What are the prospects for renewables?; Will the water-energy nexus grow in importance?; How will technological leaps and bounds affect E and P (exploration and production) operations?; What about electric cars? This is the second year Deloitte's Global Energy and Resources Group has published its predictions for the year ahead. The report is based on in-depth interviews with clients, industry analysts, and senior energy practitioners from Deloitte member firms around the world.

  4. Theory use in social predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bazinger, Claudia; Kühberger, Anton

    2012-12-01

    In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people's behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between own and predicted behavior. This renders correlations largely useless for identifying the prediction strategy. We argue that prediction by theory is a serious alternative to prediction by simulation, and that reliance on correlation has led to a bias toward simulation.

  5. Theory use in social predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Bazinger, Claudia; Kühberger, Anton

    2012-01-01

    In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others. In response, we stress the role of theoretical knowledge in predicting other people’s behavior. Importantly, prediction by simulation and prediction by theory can lead to high as well as to low correlations between o...

  6. Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. Results We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm, is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. Conclusion We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

  7. Motor degradation prediction methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.R.; Kelly, J.F.; Delzingaro, M.J.

    1996-12-01

    Motor Operated Valve (MOV) squirrel cage AC motor rotors are susceptible to degradation under certain conditions. Premature failure can result due to high humidity/temperature environments, high running load conditions, extended periods at locked rotor conditions (i.e. > 15 seconds) or exceeding the motor`s duty cycle by frequent starts or multiple valve stroking. Exposure to high heat and moisture due to packing leaks, pressure seal ring leakage or other causes can significantly accelerate the degradation. ComEd and Liberty Technologies have worked together to provide and validate a non-intrusive method using motor power diagnostics to evaluate MOV rotor condition and predict failure. These techniques have provided a quick, low radiation dose method to evaluate inaccessible motors, identify degradation and allow scheduled replacement of motors prior to catastrophic failures.

  8. Permeability prediction in chalks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alam, Mohammad Monzurul; Fabricius, Ida Lykke; Prasad, Manika

    2011-01-01

    The velocity of elastic waves is the primary datum available for acquiring information about subsurface characteristics such as lithology and porosity. Cheap and quick (spatial coverage, ease of measurement) information of permeability can be achieved, if sonic velocity is used for permeability....... The relationships between permeability and porosity from core data were first examined using Kozeny’s equation. The data were analyzed for any correlations to the specific surface of the grain, Sg, and to the hydraulic property defined as the flow zone indicator (FZI). These two methods use two different approaches...... to enhance permeability prediction fromKozeny’s equation. The FZI is based on a concept of a tortuous flow path in a granular bed. The Sg concept considers the pore space that is exposed to fluid flow and models permeability resulting from effective flow parallel to pressure drop. The porosity-permeability...

  9. Essays on Earnings Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Mark

    affect the accuracy of analysts´earnings forecasts. Finally, the objective of the dissertation is to investigate how the stock market is affected by the accuracy of corporate earnings projections. The dissertation contributes to a deeper understanding of these issues. First, it is shown how earnings...... forecasts can be generated based on historical timeseries patterns of financial ratios. This is done by modeling the return on equity and the growth-rate in equity as two separate but correlated timeseries processes which converge to a long-term, constant level. Empirical results suggest that these earnings...... of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the dissertation shows how the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of information about corporate earnings depends on how well corporate earnings can be predicted. The dissertation indicates that the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of earnings...

  10. Requirements for Predictive Analytics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Troy Hiltbrand

    2012-03-01

    It is important to have a clear understanding of how traditional Business Intelligence (BI) and analytics are different and how they fit together in optimizing organizational decision making. With tradition BI, activities are focused primarily on providing context to enhance a known set of information through aggregation, data cleansing and delivery mechanisms. As these organizations mature their BI ecosystems, they achieve a clearer picture of the key performance indicators signaling the relative health of their operations. Organizations that embark on activities surrounding predictive analytics and data mining go beyond simply presenting the data in a manner that will allow decisions makers to have a complete context around the information. These organizations generate models based on known information and then apply other organizational data against these models to reveal unknown information.

  11. Predictive coarse-graining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöberl, Markus; Zabaras, Nicholas; Koutsourelakis, Phaedon-Stelios

    2017-03-01

    We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method [1] and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the coarse-graining process. Furthermore, it can be readily extended to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo - Expectation-Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.

  12. Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, Jonathan S.

    2010-01-01

    Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

  13. Emerging approaches in predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Luoping; McHale, Cliona M; Greene, Nigel; Snyder, Ronald D; Rich, Ivan N; Aardema, Marilyn J; Roy, Shambhu; Pfuhler, Stefan; Venkatactahalam, Sundaresan

    2014-12-01

    Predictive toxicology plays an important role in the assessment of toxicity of chemicals and the drug development process. While there are several well-established in vitro and in vivo assays that are suitable for predictive toxicology, recent advances in high-throughput analytical technologies and model systems are expected to have a major impact on the field of predictive toxicology. This commentary provides an overview of the state of the current science and a brief discussion on future perspectives for the field of predictive toxicology for human toxicity. Computational models for predictive toxicology, needs for further refinement and obstacles to expand computational models to include additional classes of chemical compounds are highlighted. Functional and comparative genomics approaches in predictive toxicology are discussed with an emphasis on successful utilization of recently developed model systems for high-throughput analysis. The advantages of three-dimensional model systems and stem cells and their use in predictive toxicology testing are also described.

  14. Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp [Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electomagnetics, Co. Ltd., University of Electro-Communications (UEC) Incubation Center, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo, 182-8585 (Japan); Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo (Japan); Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062 (Japan); Fuji Security Systems. Co. Ltd., Iwato-cho 1, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

    2016-02-01

    Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

  15. Protein Chemical Shift Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Larsen, Anders S

    2014-01-01

    The protein chemical shifts holds a large amount of information about the 3-dimensional structure of the protein. A number of chemical shift predictors based on the relationship between structures resolved with X-ray crystallography and the corresponding experimental chemical shifts have been developed. These empirical predictors are very accurate on X-ray structures but tends to be insensitive to small structural changes. To overcome this limitation it has been suggested to make chemical shift predictors based on quantum mechanical(QM) calculations. In this thesis the development of the QM derived chemical shift predictor Procs14 is presented. Procs14 is based on 2.35 million density functional theory(DFT) calculations on tripeptides and contains corrections for hydrogen bonding, ring current and the effect of the previous and following residue. Procs14 is capable at performing predictions for the 13CA, 13CB, 13CO, 15NH, 1HN and 1HA backbone atoms. In order to benchmark Procs14, a number of QM NMR calculatio...

  16. Predictive Food Microbiology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Nina Bjerre

    Listeria monocytogenes is a well-known food borne pathogen that potentially causes listeriosis. No outbreaks or cases of listeriosis have been associated with cottage cheese, but several confirmed cases and outbreaks in the EU and the US have been related to dairy products made from raw or pasteu......Listeria monocytogenes is a well-known food borne pathogen that potentially causes listeriosis. No outbreaks or cases of listeriosis have been associated with cottage cheese, but several confirmed cases and outbreaks in the EU and the US have been related to dairy products made from raw...... or pasteurised milk. This, in combination with the fact that cottage cheese support growth of Listeria monocytogenes, induces a documentation requirement on the food producer. In the EU regulatory framework, mathematical models are recognised as a suitable supplement to traditional microbiological methods...... of the present PhD-project is thought to be important in relation to the development of predictive models that are valuable for, and readily applicable in the food industry....

  17. Predicting happiness among centenarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bishop, Alex J; Martin, Peter; MacDonald, Maurice; Poon, Leonard; Jazwinski, S M; Green, R C; Gearing, M; Markesbery, W R; Woodard, J L; Johnson, M A; Tenover, J S; Siegler, I C; Rodgers, W L; Hausman, D B; Rott, C; Davey, A; Arnold, J

    2010-01-01

    Happiness is believed to evolve from the comparison of current circumstances relative to past achievement. However, gerontological literature on happiness in extreme old age has been limited. The purpose of this study was to determine how perceptions of health, social provisions, and economics link past satisfaction with life to current feelings of happiness among persons living to 100 years of age and beyond. A total of 158 centenarians from the Georgia Centenarian Study were included to conduct the investigation. Items reflecting congruence and happiness from the Life Satisfaction Index were used to evaluate a model of happiness. Pathways between congruence, perceived economic security, subjective health, perceived social provisions, and happiness were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Congruence emerged as a key predictor of happiness. Furthermore, congruence predicted perceived economic security and subjective health, whereas perceived economic security had a strong influence on subjective health status. It appears that past satisfaction with life influences how centenarians frame subjective evaluations of health status and economic security. Furthermore, past satisfaction with life is directly associated with present happiness. This presents implications relative to understanding how perception of resources may enhance quality of life among persons who live exceptionally long lives. Copyright 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  18. Useful theories make predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Stephen and Van Orden (this issue) propose that there is a complex system approach to cognitive science, and collectively the authors of the papers presented in this issue believe that this approach provides the means to drive a revolution in the science of the mind. Unfortunately, however illuminating, this explanation is absent and hyperbole is all too extensive. In contrast, I argue (1) that dynamic systems theory is not new to cognitive science and does not provide a basis for a revolution, (2) it is not necessary to reject cognitive science in order to explain the constraints imposed by the body and the environment, (3) it is not necessary, as Silberstein and Chemero (this issue) appear to do, to reject cognitive science in order to explain consciousness, and (4) our understanding of pragmatics is not advanced by Gibbs and Van Orden's (this issue) "self-organized criticality".? Any debate about the future of cognitive science could usefully focus on predictive adequacy. Unfortunately, this is not the approach taken by the authors of this issue.

  19. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  20. Predicting the unpredictable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonabeau, Eric

    2002-03-01

    The collective behavior of people in crowds, markets, and organizations has long been a mystery. Why, for instance, do employee bonuses sometimes lead to decreases in productivity? Why do some products generate tremendous buzz, seemingly out of nowhere, while others languish despite multimillion-dollar marketing campaigns? How could a simple clerical error snowball into a catastrophic loss that bankrupts a financial institution? Traditional approaches like spreadsheet and regression analyses have failed to explain such "emergent phenomena," says Eric Bonabeau, because they work from the top down, trying to apply global equations and frameworks to a particular situation. But the behavior of emergent phenomena, contends Bonabeau, is formed from the bottom up--starting with the local interactions of individuals who alter their actions in response to other participants. Together, the myriad interactions result in a group behavior that can easily elude any top-down analysis. But now, thanks to "agent-based modeling," some companies are finding ways to analyze--and even predict--emergent phenomena. Macy's, for instance, has used the technology to investigate better ways to design its department stores. Hewlett-Packard has run agent-based simulations to anticipate how changes in its hiring strategy would affect its corporate culture. And Société Générale has used the technology to determine the operational risk of its asset management group. This article discusses emergent phenomena in detail and explains why they have become more prevalent in recent years. In addition to providing real-world examples of companies that have improved their business practices through agent-based modeling, Bonabeau also examines the future of this technology and points to several fields that may be revolutionized by its use.

  1. Predictions From Eternal Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leichenauer, Stefan

    We investigate the physics of eternal inflation, particularly the use of multiverse ideas to explain the observed values of the cosmological constant and the coincidences of cosmological timescales. We begin by reviewing eternal inflation, the multiverse, and the resulting measure problem. Then follows a detailed study of proposals to solve the measure problem, both analytical and numerical, including an analysis of their predictions for cosmological observables. A key outcome of this investigation is that the traditional anthropic calculations, which take into account the necessity of galaxies and heavy elements to produce observers, are redundant in our framework. The cosmological coincidence problem, the seemingly coincidental equality of the timescales of observation and of vacuum domination, is solved for the first time without appeal to detailed anthropic assumptions: very general geometric considerations do the job automatically. We also estimate a 10% likelihood that evidence for eternal inflation will be found in upcoming measurements of the energy density of the universe. Encouraged by this success, we go on to construct a modified version of the light-cone time measure which has conceptual advantages but also reproduces the phenomenology of its predecessor. We complete our study of the measure problem by noting that for a wide class of proposed solutions, including the one developed here, there is an implicit assumption being made about a catastrophic end to the universe. Finally, as a by-product of this research program we find geometries which violate some of the accepted common knowledge on holographic entropy bounds. We point this out and conjecture a general result.

  2. Networked and Distributed Predictive Control

    CERN Document Server

    Christofides, Panagiotis D; De La Pena, David Munoz

    2011-01-01

    "Networked and Distributed Predictive Control" presents rigorous, yet practical, methods for the design of networked and distributed predictive control systems - the first book to do so. The design of model predictive control systems using Lyapunov-based techniques accounting for the influence of asynchronous and delayed measurements is followed by a treatment of networked control architecture development. This shows how networked control can augment dedicated control systems in a natural way and takes advantage of additional, potentially asynchronous and delayed measurements to main

  3. Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data

    OpenAIRE

    Fukang Zhu; Zongwu Cai; Liang Peng

    2014-01-01

    Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures for predictability. In this paper we propose novel empirical likelihood methods based on some weighted score equations to test whether the monthly CRSP value-weighted index can be predicted by the log dividend-price ratio or the log earnings-price ratio. Th...

  4. Risk prediction for invasive candidiasis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armin Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Over past few years, treatment of invasive candidiasis (IC has evolved from targeted therapy to prophylaxis, pre-emptive and empirical therapy. Numerous predisposing factors for IC have been grouped together in various combinations to design risk prediction models. These models in general have shown good negative predictive value, but poor positive predictive value. They are useful in selecting the population which is less likely to benefit from empirical antifungal therapy and thus prevent overuse of antifungal agents. Current article deals with various risk prediction models for IC and their external validation studies.

  5. Risk prediction for invasive candidiasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Armin; Azim, Afzal; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Marak, K Rungmei S K; Gurjar, Mohan

    2014-10-01

    Over past few years, treatment of invasive candidiasis (IC) has evolved from targeted therapy to prophylaxis, pre-emptive and empirical therapy. Numerous predisposing factors for IC have been grouped together in various combinations to design risk prediction models. These models in general have shown good negative predictive value, but poor positive predictive value. They are useful in selecting the population which is less likely to benefit from empirical antifungal therapy and thus prevent overuse of antifungal agents. Current article deals with various risk prediction models for IC and their external validation studies.

  6. Predictability of Forced Lorenz Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Baosheng; Ding, Ruiqiang; Li, Jianping; Zhong, Quanjia

    2017-04-01

    Based on the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach, the influences of external forcing on the predictability are studied in the Lorenz systems with constant and quasi-periodic forces in this paper. The results indicate that for the Lorenz systems with constant and quasi-periodic forces, their predictability limits increase with the forcing strength. With the same magnitude and different directions, the constant or quasi-periodic forcing shows different effects on the predictability limit in the Lorenz system, and these effects become significant with the increase of the forcing strength. Generally speaking, the positive forcing leads to a higher predictability limit than the negative forcing. Therefore, when we think about the effects of positive and negative elements and phases in the atmosphere and ocean research, the predictability problems driven by different phases should be considered separately. In addition, the influences of constant and quasi-periodic forces on the predictability are different in the Lorenz system. The effect of the constant forcing on the predictability is mainly reflected in the linear phase of error growth, while the nonlinear phase should also be considered for the situation of the quasi-periodic forcing. The predictability limit of the system under constant forcing is longer than the system under quasi-periodic forcing. These results based on simple chaotic model could provide insight into the studies of the actual atmosphere predictability.

  7. Total Ozone Prediction: Stratospheric Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackman, Charles H.; Kawa, S. Ramdy; Douglass, Anne R.

    2003-01-01

    The correct prediction of total ozone as a function of latitude and season is extremely important for global models. This exercise tests the ability of a particular model to simulate ozone. The ozone production (P) and loss (L) will be specified from a well- established global model and will be used in all GCMs for subsequent prediction of ozone. This is the "B-3 Constrained Run" from M&MII. The exercise mostly tests a model stratospheric dynamics in the prediction of total ozone. The GCM predictions will be compared and contrasted with TOMS measurements.

  8. Solar Cycle Predictions (Invited Review)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesnell, W. Dean

    2012-11-01

    Solar cycle predictions are needed to plan long-term space missions, just as weather predictions are needed to plan the launch. Fleets of satellites circle the Earth collecting many types of science data, protecting astronauts, and relaying information. All of these satellites are sensitive at some level to solar cycle effects. Predictions of drag on low-Earth orbit spacecraft are one of the most important. Launching a satellite with less propellant can mean a higher orbit, but unanticipated solar activity and increased drag can make that a Pyrrhic victory as the reduced propellant load is consumed more rapidly. Energetic events at the Sun can produce crippling radiation storms that endanger all assets in space. Solar cycle predictions also anticipate the shortwave emissions that cause degradation of solar panels. Testing solar dynamo theories by quantitative predictions of what will happen in 5 - 20 years is the next arena for solar cycle predictions. A summary and analysis of 75 predictions of the amplitude of the upcoming Solar Cycle 24 is presented. The current state of solar cycle predictions and some anticipations of how those predictions could be made more accurate in the future are discussed.

  9. A tutorial on conformal prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Shafer, Glenn

    2007-01-01

    Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability $\\epsilon$, together with a method that makes a prediction $\\hat{y}$ of a label $y$, it produces a set of labels, typically containing $\\hat{y}$, that also contains $y$ with probability $1-\\epsilon$. Conformal prediction can be applied to any method for producing $\\hat{y}$: a nearest-neighbor method, a support-vector machine, ridge regression, etc. Conformal prediction is designed for an on-line setting in which labels are predicted successively, each one being revealed before the next is predicted. The most novel and valuable feature of conformal prediction is that if the successive examples are sampled independently from the same distribution, then the successive predictions will be right $1-\\epsilon$ of the time, even though they are based on an accumulating dataset rather than on independent datasets. In addition to the model under which successive examples are sampled indepen...

  10. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik;

    2002-01-01

    , it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...

  11. Predicting Marital Success with PREPARE: A Predictive Validity Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowers, Blaine J.; Olson, David H.

    1986-01-01

    Assessed the utility of the premarital inventory, PREPARE, in predicting marital success. Conducted a three-year follow-up study with couples (N=164) who took PREPARE during their engagement. Found that the PREPARE scores from three months before marriage could predict with 80-90% accuracy which couples were separated and divorced from those that…

  12. PREDICT : model for prediction of survival in localized prostate cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkmeijer, Linda G W; Monninkhof, Evelyn M.; van Oort, Inge M.; van der Poel, Henk G.; de Meerleer, Gert; van Vulpen, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Current models for prediction of prostate cancer-specific survival do not incorporate all present-day interventions. In the present study, a pre-treatment prediction model for patients with localized prostate cancer was developed.Methods: From 1989 to 2008, 3383 patients were treated with I

  13. Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

    Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

  14. Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

    2017-01-01

    Predicting failures can be considered a meaningful insight for the optimal planning of an industrial manufacturing process. In this era of advanced sensor technologies, when the collection of data from each step of the manufacturing process is common practice and advanced analytical skills enable...... us to efficiently analyze heterogeneous data streams, predicting failure becomes an achievable task. In this article: first, we propose a data mining strategy to deal with heterogeneous streams of data to predict failures in the production process; second, we aim to build a novel predictive...... manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K...

  15. Predicting epileptic seizures in advance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Negin Moghim

    Full Text Available Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6-0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling, is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance.

  16. Predicting responses in multiple environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malosetti Zunin, Marcos; Bustos-Korts, Daniela; Boer, Martin P.; Eeuwijk, van Fred A.

    2016-01-01

    Prediction of the phenotypes for a set of genotypes across multiple environments is a fundamental task in any plant breeding program. Genomic prediction (GP) can assist selection decisions by combining incomplete phenotypic information over multiple environments (MEs) with dense sets of markers.

  17. Solomonoff Prediction and Occam's Razor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterkenburg, T.F.

    2016-01-01

    Algorithmic information theory gives an idealized notion of compressibility that is often presented as an objective measure of simplicity. It is suggested at times that Solomonoff prediction, or algorithmic information theory in a predictive setting, can deliver an argument to justify Occam’s razor.

  18. Zephyr - the next generation prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2001-01-01

    Two of the most successful short-term prediction models (and the only ones in operational use at utilities) are going to be merged into one: the Risø model, developed by Landberg and the Wind Power Prediction Tool WPPT, developed at the Department of Mathematical Modelling IMM of the Danish Techn...

  19. Predictions of nuclear charge radii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, M.; Lu, Y.; Zhao, Y. M.; Arima, A.

    2016-12-01

    The nuclear charge radius is a fundamental property of an atomic nucleus. In this article we study the predictive power of empirical relations for experimental nuclear charge radii of neighboring nuclei and predict the unknown charge radii of 1085 nuclei based on the experimental CR2013 database within an uncertainty of 0.03 fm.

  20. Update on protein structure prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hubbard, T; Tramontano, A; Barton, G

    1996-01-01

    Computational tools for protein structure prediction are of great interest to molecular, structural and theoretical biologists due to a rapidly increasing number of protein sequences with no known structure. In October 1995, a workshop was held at IRBM to predict as much as possible about a numbe...

  1. Quadratic prediction of factor scores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wansbeek, T

    1999-01-01

    Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

  2. Predicting Acoustics in Class Rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Claus Lynge; Rindel, Jens Holger

    2005-01-01

    Typical class rooms have fairly simple geometries, even so room acoustics in this type of room is difficult to predict using today's room acoustic computer modeling software. The reasons why acoustics of class rooms are harder to predict than acoustics of complicated concert halls might...

  3. Predictions for Excited Strange Baryons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernando, Ishara P.; Goity, Jose L. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States)

    2016-04-01

    An assessment is made of predictions for excited hyperon masses which follow from flavor symmetry and consistency with a 1/N c expansion of QCD. Such predictions are based on presently established baryonic resonances. Low lying hyperon resonances which do not seem to fit into the proposed scheme are discussed.

  4. Can Satellites Aid Earthquake Predictions?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    John Roach; 李晓辉

    2004-01-01

    @@ Earthquake prediction is an imprecise science, and to illustrate the point,many experts point to the story of Tangshen①, China. On July 28, 1976, a magnitude② 7. 6 earthquake struck the city of Tangshen, China, without warning. None of the signs of the successful prediction from a year and half earlier were present. An estimated 250,000 people died.

  5. Prediction, Regression and Critical Realism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Petter

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of prediction in land use planning, and the use of statistical research methods in analyses of relationships between urban form and travel behaviour. Influential writers within the tradition of critical realism reject the possibility of predicting social...... of prediction necessary and possible in spatial planning of urban development. Finally, the political implications of positions within theory of science rejecting the possibility of predictions about social phenomena are addressed....... phenomena. This position is fundamentally problematic to public planning. Without at least some ability to predict the likely consequences of different proposals, the justification for public sector intervention into market mechanisms will be frail. Statistical methods like regression analyses are commonly...

  6. Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina García, Pedro M; Baños Rivera, Rosa M

    2016-05-01

    Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.

  7. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    CERN Document Server

    Beyer, T

    2001-01-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of parac...

  8. A Regenerative Prediction Algorithm for Indian Rainfall Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SEEMA MAHAJAN

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall forecasting is critical for the crop planning and water management strategies. Proposed study presents a novel approach for modelling time series precipitation data. The 51 years of Indian rainfall data is used for the development of the model. We use nonlinear predictive code based on 11th order with 240 coefficients. Coefficients are optimized using gradient descendent algorithm. Algorithm is tested using 40 years of rainfall training data. Prediction error tested outside training period is found less than1% for few months. Prediction period is extended to one year by including progressive predicted values in input samples using regenerative feedback algorithm. This model is applied for different training and testing periods with average error of 2% to 10%.

  9. Prediction of Competitive Microbial Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

     Prediction of competitive microbial growth is becoming important for microbial food safety. There would be two approaches to predict competitive microbial growth with mathematical models. The first approach is the development of a growth model for competitive microbes. Among several candidates for the competition model considered, the combination of the primary growth model of the new logistic (NL) model and the competition model of the Lotka-Vorttera (LV) model showed the best performance in predicting microbial competitive growth in the mixed culture of two species. This system further successfully predicted the growth of three competitive species in mixed culture. The second approach is the application of the secondary model especially for the parameter of the maximum cell population in the primary growth model. The combination of the NL model and a polynomial model for the maximum population successfully predicted Salmonella growth in raw ground beef. This system further successfully predicted Salmonella growth in beef at various initial concentrations and temperatures. The first approach requires microbial growth data in monoculture for analysis. The second approach to the prediction of competitive growth from the viewpoint of microbial food safety would be more suitable for practical application.

  10. Toolbox for Protein Structure Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, Daniel Barry; McGuffin, Liam James

    2016-01-01

    Protein tertiary structure prediction algorithms aim to predict, from amino acid sequence, the tertiary structure of a protein. In silico protein structure prediction methods have become extremely important, as in vitro-based structural elucidation is unable to keep pace with the current growth of sequence databases due to high-throughput next-generation sequencing, which has exacerbated the gaps in our knowledge between sequences and structures.Here we briefly discuss protein tertiary structure prediction, the biennial competition for the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) and its role in shaping the field. We also discuss, in detail, our cutting-edge web-server method IntFOLD2-TS for tertiary structure prediction. Furthermore, we provide a step-by-step guide on using the IntFOLD2-TS web server, along with some real world examples, where the IntFOLD server can and has been used to improve protein tertiary structure prediction and aid in functional elucidation.

  11. SIFT missense predictions for genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaser, Robert; Adusumalli, Swarnaseetha; Leng, Sim Ngak; Sikic, Mile; Ng, Pauline C

    2016-01-01

    The SIFT (sorting intolerant from tolerant) algorithm helps bridge the gap between mutations and phenotypic variations by predicting whether an amino acid substitution is deleterious. SIFT has been used in disease, mutation and genetic studies, and a protocol for its use has been previously published with Nature Protocols. This updated protocol describes SIFT 4G (SIFT for genomes), which is a faster version of SIFT that enables practical computations on reference genomes. Users can get predictions for single-nucleotide variants from their organism of interest using the SIFT 4G annotator with SIFT 4G's precomputed databases. The scope of genomic predictions is expanded, with predictions available for more than 200 organisms. Users can also run the SIFT 4G algorithm themselves. SIFT predictions can be retrieved for 6.7 million variants in 4 min once the database has been downloaded. If precomputed predictions are not available, the SIFT 4G algorithm can compute predictions at a rate of 2.6 s per protein sequence. SIFT 4G is available from http://sift-dna.org/sift4g.

  12. Numerical weather prediction model tuning via ensemble prediction system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvinen, H.; Laine, M.; Ollinaho, P.; Solonen, A.; Haario, H.

    2011-12-01

    This paper discusses a novel approach to tune predictive skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. NWP models contain tunable parameters which appear in parameterizations schemes of sub-grid scale physical processes. Currently, numerical values of these parameters are specified manually. In a recent dual manuscript (QJRMS, revised) we developed a new concept and method for on-line estimation of the NWP model parameters. The EPPES ("Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system") method requires only minimal changes to the existing operational ensemble prediction infra-structure and it seems very cost-effective because practically no new computations are introduced. The approach provides an algorithmic decision making tool for model parameter optimization in operational NWP. In EPPES, statistical inference about the NWP model tunable parameters is made by (i) generating each member of the ensemble of predictions using different model parameter values, drawn from a proposal distribution, and (ii) feeding-back the relative merits of the parameter values to the proposal distribution, based on evaluation of a suitable likelihood function against verifying observations. In the presentation, the method is first illustrated in low-order numerical tests using a stochastic version of the Lorenz-95 model which effectively emulates the principal features of ensemble prediction systems. The EPPES method correctly detects the unknown and wrongly specified parameters values, and leads to an improved forecast skill. Second, results with an atmospheric general circulation model based ensemble prediction system show that the NWP model tuning capacity of EPPES scales up to realistic models and ensemble prediction systems. Finally, a global top-end NWP model tuning exercise with preliminary results is published.

  13. The Theory of Linear Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Vaidyanathan, PP

    2007-01-01

    Linear prediction theory has had a profound impact in the field of digital signal processing. Although the theory dates back to the early 1940s, its influence can still be seen in applications today. The theory is based on very elegant mathematics and leads to many beautiful insights into statistical signal processing. Although prediction is only a part of the more general topics of linear estimation, filtering, and smoothing, this book focuses on linear prediction. This has enabled detailed discussion of a number of issues that are normally not found in texts. For example, the theory of vecto

  14. Adaptive filtering prediction and control

    CERN Document Server

    Goodwin, Graham C

    2009-01-01

    Preface1. Introduction to Adaptive TechniquesPart 1. Deterministic Systems2. Models for Deterministic Dynamical Systems3. Parameter Estimation for Deterministic Systems4. Deterministic Adaptive Prediction5. Control of Linear Deterministic Systems6. Adaptive Control of Linear Deterministic SystemsPart 2. Stochastic Systems7. Optimal Filtering and Prediction8. Parameter Estimation for Stochastic Dynamic Systems9. Adaptive Filtering and Prediction10. Control of Stochastic Systems11. Adaptive Control of Stochastic SystemsAppendicesA. A Brief Review of Some Results from Systems TheoryB. A Summary o

  15. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  16. Arctic Sea Ice Predictability and the Sea Ice Prediction Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiggins, H. V.; Stroeve, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Drastic reductions in Arctic sea ice cover have increased the demand for Arctic sea ice predictions by a range of stakeholders, including local communities, resource managers, industry and the public. The science of sea-ice prediction has been challenged to keep up with these developments. Efforts such as the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO; http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook) and the Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook have provided a forum for the international sea-ice prediction and observing community to explore and compare different approaches. The SIO, originally organized by the Study of Environmental Change (SEARCH), is now managed by the new Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), which is building a collaborative network of scientists and stakeholders to improve arctic sea ice prediction. The SIO synthesizes predictions from a variety of methods, including heuristic and from a statistical and/or dynamical model. In a recent study, SIO data from 2008 to 2013 were analyzed. The analysis revealed that in some years the predictions were very successful, in other years they were not. Years that were anomalous compared to the long-term trend have proven more difficult to predict, regardless of which method was employed. This year, in response to feedback from users and contributors to the SIO, several enhancements have been made to the SIO reports. One is to encourage contributors to provide spatial probability maps of sea ice cover in September and the first day each location becomes ice-free; these are an example of subseasonal to seasonal, local-scale predictions. Another enhancement is a separate analysis of the modeling contributions. In the June 2014 SIO report, 10 of 28 outlooks were produced from models that explicitly simulate sea ice from dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice models. Half of the models included fully-coupled (atmosphere, ice, and ocean) models that additionally employ data assimilation. Both of these subsets (models and coupled models with data

  17. Predicting Success in Elementary Algebra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogull, R. G.; Rosengarten, W., Jr.

    1974-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a device for predicting student success in a high school Elementary Algebra course. It was intended to assist guidance counselors in advising students in selecting the most appropriate mathematics course. (Editor)

  18. Time-predictable Stack Caching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abbaspourseyedi, Sahar

    complicated and less imprecise. Time-predictable computer architectures provide solutions to this problem. As accesses to the data in caches are one source of timing unpredictability, devising methods for improving the timepredictability of caches are important. Stack data, with statically analyzable......Embedded systems are computing systems for controlling and interacting with physical environments. Embedded systems with special timing constraints where the system needs to meet deadlines are referred to as real-time systems. In hard real-time systems, missing a deadline causes the system to fail...... addresses, provides an opportunity to predict and tighten the WCET of accesses to data in caches. In this thesis, we introduce the time-predictable stack cache design and implementation within a time-predictable processor. We introduce several optimizations to our design for tightening the WCET while...

  19. Shortcomings in wheat yield predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Mikhail A.; Mitchell, Rowan A. C.; Whitmore, Andrew P.; Hawkesford, Malcolm J.; Parry, Martin A. J.; Shewry, Peter R.

    2012-06-01

    Predictions of a 40-140% increase in wheat yield by 2050, reported in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment, are based on a simplistic approach that ignores key factors affecting yields and hence are seriously misleading.

  20. New Tool to Predict Glaucoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News About Us Donate In This Section A New Tool to Predict Glaucoma email Send this article ... determine if a patient has glaucoma. Recently, a new tool has become available to eye care specialists ...

  1. Prediction, Regression and Critical Realism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Næss, Petter

    2004-01-01

    This paper considers the possibility of prediction in land use planning, and the use of statistical research methods in analyses of relationships between urban form and travel behaviour. Influential writers within the tradition of critical realism reject the possibility of predicting social...... seen as necessary in order to identify aggregate level effects of policy measures, but are questioned by many advocates of critical realist ontology. Using research into the relationship between urban structure and travel as an example, the paper discusses relevant research methods and the kinds...... of prediction necessary and possible in spatial planning of urban development. Finally, the political implications of positions within theory of science rejecting the possibility of predictions about social phenomena are addressed....

  2. Trading Network Predicts Stock Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  3. Time series prediction in agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortina-Januchs, M. G.; Quintanilla-Dominguez, J.; Vega-Corona, A.; Andina, D.

    2012-04-01

    This work proposes a novel model to predict time series such as frost, precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, all of them important variables for the agriculture process. In the proposed model, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) combined with clustering algorithms and sensor data fusion are used. The real time series are obtained from different sensors. The clustering algorithms find relationships between variables, clustering involves the task of dividing data sets, which assigns the same label to members who belong to the same group, so that each group is homogeneous and distinct from the others. Those relationships provide information to the ANN in order to obtain the time series prediction. The most important issue of ANN in time series prediction is generalization, which refers to their ability to produce reasonable predictions on data sets other than those used for the estimation of the model parameters.

  4. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  5. GIPSy: Genomic island prediction software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Siomar C; Geyik, Hakan; Ramos, Rommel T J; de Sá, Pablo H C G; Barbosa, Eudes G V; Baumbach, Jan; Figueiredo, Henrique C P; Miyoshi, Anderson; Tauch, Andreas; Silva, Artur; Azevedo, Vasco

    2016-08-20

    Bacteria are highly diverse organisms that are able to adapt to a broad range of environments and hosts due to their high genomic plasticity. Horizontal gene transfer plays a pivotal role in this genome plasticity and in evolution by leaps through the incorporation of large blocks of genome sequences, ordinarily known as genomic islands (GEIs). GEIs may harbor genes encoding virulence, metabolism, antibiotic resistance and symbiosis-related functions, namely pathogenicity islands (PAIs), metabolic islands (MIs), resistance islands (RIs) and symbiotic islands (SIs). Although many software for the prediction of GEIs exist, they only focus on PAI prediction and present other limitations, such as complicated installation and inconvenient user interfaces. Here, we present GIPSy, the genomic island prediction software, a standalone and user-friendly software for the prediction of GEIs, built on our previously developed pathogenicity island prediction software (PIPS). We also present four application cases in which we crosslink data from literature to PAIs, MIs, RIs and SIs predicted by GIPSy. Briefly, GIPSy correctly predicted the following previously described GEIs: 13 PAIs larger than 30kb in Escherichia coli CFT073; 1 MI for Burkholderia pseudomallei K96243, which seems to be a miscellaneous island; 1 RI of Acinetobacter baumannii AYE, named AbaR1; and, 1 SI of Mesorhizobium loti MAFF303099 presenting a mosaic structure. GIPSy is the first life-style-specific genomic island prediction software to perform analyses of PAIs, MIs, RIs and SIs, opening a door for a better understanding of bacterial genome plasticity and the adaptation to new traits.

  6. Prediction of CBS tidal evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryomova, G. N.

    The time series of basic processes, accompanying the tidal evolution of star components of Close Binary Systems (CBS) are predicted in the framework of evolutionary stellar models by Claret (2004). The series includes the apsidal motion period, timescale of synchronization of axial rotation of a star with the orbital revolution, the orbit circularization timescale, and the age. Data from the catalogues by Svechnikov & Perevozkina (1999) and by Torres, Andersen, Gimenez (2010) are used for testing the sensitivity of the numerical prediction algorithm.

  7. High sensitivity RNA pseudoknot prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Xiaolu; Ali, Hesham

    2006-01-01

    Most ab initio pseudoknot predicting methods provide very few folding scenarios for a given RNA sequence and have low sensitivities. RNA researchers, in many cases, would rather sacrifice the specificity for a much higher sensitivity for pseudoknot detection. In this study, we introduce the Pseudoknot Local Motif Model and Dynamic Partner Sequence Stacking (PLMM_DPSS) algorithm which predicts all PLM model pseudoknots within an RNA sequence in a neighboring-region-interference-free fashion. T...

  8. Dividend Predictability around the World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    in the time-series dimension (time variation in dividend yields strongly predicts future dividend growth rates) and in the cross- country dimension (sorting countries into portfolios depending on their lagged dividend yield produces a spread in dividend growth rates of more than 20% p.a.). In an economic...... assessment of this finding, we show that cash flow predictability is stronger in smaller and medium- sized countries because these countries also have more volatile cash flow growth and higher idiosyncratic return volatility....

  9. Prediction of the Chandler wobble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zotov, L.; Bizouard, C.

    2015-08-01

    Chandler wobble amplitude have been decreasing in 2010s as in 1930s. We try to predict its future behaviour through prediction of its complex envelope. The excitation of the Chandler wobble (ChW) reconstructed by Panteleev's filter was also analized. The equation for the complex envelope propagation through the Euler-Liouville equation was derived. Similarities with the climate change characteristics are discussed.

  10. Prediction of molecular crystal structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beyer, Theresa

    2001-07-01

    The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol{sup -1} of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

  11. Predictive Characteristics of Malignant Pheochromocytoma

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Junsoo; Song, Cheryn; Park, Myungchan; Yoo, Sangjun; Park, Se Jun; Hong, SeokJun; Hong, Bumsik; Kim, Choung-Soo; Ahn, Hanjong

    2011-01-01

    Purpose The prognosis of patients with malignant pheochromocytoma is poor, but the predictive factors are not well understood. We aimed to identify the clinical characteristics predictive of malignancy after initial surgical removal in patients with pheochromocytoma. Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed the records of 152 patients diagnosed with pheochromocytoma, including 5 (3.3%) with metastasis at the time of the initial surgical excision and 12 (7.9%) who developed metastasis...

  12. Global Predictability and Prediction Skill of Atmospheric Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deflorio, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of horizontal water vapor transport in the midlatitudes and can intensify downstream precipitation and influence flooding, snowpack and water availability. Consequently, there is significant incentive to estimate the predictability and quantify our prediction skill of AR events in operational forecast models, especially weeks to months in advance. Understanding and exploiting the full extent of AR predictability is vital for watershed and hazard preparation and water resource management in areas that are sensitive to heavy precipitation events often associated with ARs. Though the predictability limits and prediction skill of AR-related quantities such as precipitation and integrated vapor transport have recently been quantified for very limited regional areas, a systematic assessment of AR events themselves (with explicit consideration of AR geometries/intensities) using contemporary operational forecast models on a global scale has not yet been made. In this study, we create new objective skill metrics for AR events and quantify predictability limits and prediction skill of ARs in two decades of AR hindcasts from several operational models at lead times ranging from 1 day to 1 month. Our methodology is performed globally, but also allows for regional investigation of observed AR events of interest. We also examine the sensitivity of these skill estimates to large scale modes of climate variability (e.g. the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) in an effort to leverage higher skill conditioned upon particular phases of these modes. This study contributes to the overarching goals of the international WMO Subseasonal to Seasonal Project by utilizing operational forecast and hindcast experiments with an emphasis on subseasonal forecasting applications.

  13. Seasonal Drought Prediction in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, R.; Mishra, V.

    2015-12-01

    Drought is among the most costly natural disasters in India. Seasonal prediction of drought can assist planners to manage agriculture and water resources. Such information can be valuable for a country like India where 60% of agriculture is rain-fed. Here we evaluate precipitation and temperature forecast from the NCEP's CFSV2 for seasonal drought prediction in India. We demonstrate the utility of the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature for drought forecast at 1-2 months lead time at a high spatial resolution. Precipitation from CFSv2 showed moderate correlations with observed up to two months lead. For one month lead, we found a significant correlation between CFSv2 and observed precipitation during winter season. Air temperature from the CFSv2 showed a good correlation with observed temperature during the winter. We forced the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model with the CFSv2 forecast of precipitation and air temperature to generate forecast of hydrologic variables such as soil moisture and total runoff. We find that errors of the prediction reduce for the two month lead time in the majority of the study domain except the northern India. Skills of Initial Hydrologic Conditions combined with moderate skills of forcings based on the CFSv2 showed ability of drought prediction in India. The developed system was able to successfully predict observed top layer soil moisture and observed drought based on satellite remote sensing in India.

  14. Strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In order to effectively improve numerical prediction level by using current models and data, the strategy and methodology of dynamical analogue prediction (DAP) is deeply studied in the present paper. A new idea to predict the prediction errors of dynamical model on the basis of historical analogue information is put forward so as to transform the dynamical prediction problem into the estimation problem of prediction errors. In terms of such an idea, a new prediction method of final analogue correction of errors (FACE) is developed. Furthermore, the FACE is applied to extra-seasonal prediction experiments on an operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. Prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation show that the FACE can to some extent reduce prediction errors, recover prediction variances, and improve prediction skills. Besides, sensitive experiments also show that predictions based on the FACE are evidently influenced by the number of analogues, analogue-selected variables and analogy metric.

  15. Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stewart SHIPP

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backwards in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forwards and backwards pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b rapid technical advances made

  16. Predictive mechanisms in idiom comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vespignani, Francesco; Canal, Paolo; Molinaro, Nicola; Fonda, Sergio; Cacciari, Cristina

    2010-08-01

    Prediction is pervasive in human cognition and plays a central role in language comprehension. At an electrophysiological level, this cognitive function contributes substantially in determining the amplitude of the N400. In fact, the amplitude of the N400 to words within a sentence has been shown to depend on how predictable those words are: The more predictable a word, the smaller the N400 elicited. However, predictive processing can be based on different sources of information that allow anticipation of upcoming constituents and integration in context. In this study, we investigated the ERPs elicited during the comprehension of idioms, that is, prefabricated multiword strings stored in semantic memory. When a reader recognizes a string of words as an idiom before the idiom ends, she or he can develop expectations concerning the incoming idiomatic constituents. We hypothesized that the expectations driven by the activation of an idiom might differ from those driven by discourse-based constraints. To this aim, we compared the ERP waveforms elicited by idioms and two literal control conditions. The results showed that, in both cases, the literal conditions exhibited a more negative potential than the idiomatic condition. Our analyses suggest that before idiom recognition the effect is due to modulation of the N400 amplitude, whereas after idiom recognition a P300 for the idiomatic sentence has a fundamental role in the composition of the effect. These results suggest that two distinct predictive mechanisms are at work during language comprehension, based respectively on probabilistic information and on categorical template matching.

  17. Link Prediction via Matrix Completion

    CERN Document Server

    Pech, Ratha; Pan, Liming; Cheng, Hong; Zhou, Tao

    2016-01-01

    Inspired by practical importance of social networks, economic networks, biological networks and so on, studies on large and complex networks have attracted a surge of attentions in the recent years. Link prediction is a fundamental issue to understand the mechanisms by which new links are added to the networks. We introduce the method of robust principal component analysis (robust PCA) into link prediction, and estimate the missing entries of the adjacency matrix. On one hand, our algorithm is based on the sparsity and low rank property of the matrix, on the other hand, it also performs very well when the network is dense. This is because a relatively dense real network is also sparse in comparison to the complete graph. According to extensive experiments on real networks from disparate fields, when the target network is connected and sufficiently dense, whatever it is weighted or unweighted, our method is demonstrated to be very effective and with prediction accuracy being considerably improved comparing wit...

  18. Human motion simulation predictive dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Abdel-Malek, Karim

    2013-01-01

    Simulate realistic human motion in a virtual world with an optimization-based approach to motion prediction. With this approach, motion is governed by human performance measures, such as speed and energy, which act as objective functions to be optimized. Constraints on joint torques and angles are imposed quite easily. Predicting motion in this way allows one to use avatars to study how and why humans move the way they do, given specific scenarios. It also enables avatars to react to infinitely many scenarios with substantial autonomy. With this approach it is possible to predict dynamic motion without having to integrate equations of motion -- rather than solving equations of motion, this approach solves for a continuous time-dependent curve characterizing joint variables (also called joint profiles) for every degree of freedom. Introduces rigorous mathematical methods for digital human modelling and simulation Focuses on understanding and representing spatial relationships (3D) of biomechanics Develops an i...

  19. Predictability of Mobile Phone Associations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2010-01-01

    Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how...... representation, and general behavior. This is of vital interest in the development of context-aware services which rely on forecasting based on mobile phone sensors....... the predictability of mobile sensors, acting as proxies for humans, change with time scale and sensor type such as GSM and WLAN. Applying recent information theoretic methods, it is demonstrated that an upper bound on predictability is relatively high for all sensors given the complete history (typically above 90...

  20. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    The problem of predicting the three-dimensional structure of a protein given its amino acid sequence is one of the most important open problems in bioinformatics. One of the carbon atoms in amino acids is the C-atom and the overall structure of a protein is often represented by a so-called C...... is competitive in quality and speed with other state-of-the-art decoy generation algorithms. Our third C-trace reconstruction approach is based on bee-colony optimization [24]. We demonstrate why this algorithm has some important properties that makes it suitable for protein structure prediction. Our approach......-trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE...

  1. High sensitivity RNA pseudoknot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaolu; Ali, Hesham

    2007-01-01

    Most ab initio pseudoknot predicting methods provide very few folding scenarios for a given RNA sequence and have low sensitivities. RNA researchers, in many cases, would rather sacrifice the specificity for a much higher sensitivity for pseudoknot detection. In this study, we introduce the Pseudoknot Local Motif Model and Dynamic Partner Sequence Stacking (PLMM_DPSS) algorithm which predicts all PLM model pseudoknots within an RNA sequence in a neighboring-region-interference-free fashion. The PLM model is derived from the existing Pseudobase entries. The innovative DPSS approach calculates the optimally lowest stacking energy between two partner sequences. Combined with the Mfold, PLMM_DPSS can also be used in predicting complicated pseudoknots. The test results of PLMM_DPSS, PKNOTS, iterated loop matching, pknotsRG and HotKnots with Pseudobase sequences have shown that PLMM_DPSS is the most sensitive among the five methods. PLMM_DPSS also provides manageable pseudoknot folding scenarios for further structure determination.

  2. Intelligent Prediction of Ship Maneuvering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miroslaw Lacki

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the author presents an idea of the intelligent ship maneuvering prediction system with the usage of neuroevolution. This may be also be seen as the ship handling system that simulates a learning process of an autonomous control unit, created with artificial neural network. The control unit observes input signals and calculates the values of required parameters of the vessel maneuvering in confined waters. In neuroevolution such units are treated as individuals in population of artificial neural networks, which through environmental sensing and evolutionary algorithms learn to perform given task efficiently. The main task of the system is to learn continuously and predict the values of a navigational parameters of the vessel after certain amount of time, regarding an influence of its environment. The result of a prediction may occur as a warning to navigator to aware him about incoming threat.

  3. Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

    Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

  4. Zephyr - the next generation prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L.; Nielsen, Torben Skov

    2001-01-01

    Two of the most successful short-term prediction models (and the only ones in operational use at utilities) are going to be merged into one: the Risø model, developed by Landberg and the Wind Power Prediction Tool WPPT, developed at the Department of Mathematical Modelling IMM of the Danish...... Technical University. This paper will describe a new project funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy where the largest Danish utilities (Elkraft, Elsam, Eltra and SEAS) are participating. Two advantages can be achieved by combining the effort: The software architecture will be state-of-the-art, using...... the Java2TM platform and Enterprise Java Beans technology, and it will ensure that the best forecasts are given on all prediction horizons from the short range (0-9 hours) to the long range (36-48 hours). This is because the IMM approach uses online data and advanced statistical methods, which...

  5. Algorithms for Drug Sensitivity Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos De Niz

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Precision medicine entails the design of therapies that are matched for each individual patient. Thus, predictive modeling of drug responses for specific patients constitutes a significant challenge for personalized therapy. In this article, we consider a review of approaches that have been proposed to tackle the drug sensitivity prediction problem especially with respect to personalized cancer therapy. We first discuss modeling approaches that are based on genomic characterizations alone and further the discussion by including modeling techniques that integrate both genomic and functional information. A comparative analysis of the prediction performance of four representative algorithms, elastic net, random forest, kernelized Bayesian multi-task learning and deep learning, reflecting the broad classes of regularized linear, ensemble, kernelized and neural network-based models, respectively, has been included in the paper. The review also considers the challenges that need to be addressed for successful implementation of the algorithms in clinical practice.

  6. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production......The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... and HIRLAM predictions. The statistical models belong to the class of conditional parametric models. The models are estimated using local polynomial regression, but the estimation method is here extended to be adaptive in order to allow for slow changes in the system e.g. caused by the annual variations...

  7. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  8. Evoked emotions predict food choice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelle R Dalenberg

    Full Text Available In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively. After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

  9. Prediction of eyespot infection risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Váòová

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study was to design a prediction model for eyespot (Tapesia yallundae infection based on climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, air humidity. Data from experiment years 1994-2002 were used to study correlations between the eyespot infection index and individual weather characteristics. The model of prediction was constructed using multiple regression when a separate parameter is assigned to each factor, i.e. the frequency of days with optimum temperatures, humidity, and precipitation. The correlation between relative air humidity and precipitation and the infection index is significant.

  10. Wind energy prediction; Prediccion eolica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiberta, B. J.; Florez, M. V. E.

    2004-07-01

    On March 12th, 2004 the Spanish Government modified the legal situation of the renewable energies following the approval of RD 436/2004. This makes necessary the development of wind energy prediction models for its entrance to the daily electricity market like the conventional energies. The improvement of physical models, meteorological models, or a combination of both, is necessary for the prediction of the wind generation. This will guarantee the wind energy full utilization and the participation in the electrical market, as well as the remuneration of the complementary services and the regulation of reactive electricity. In this way wind energy turns into a perfectly manageable one. (Author)

  11. Methods for Predicting Stock Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha Cecilia García

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a literature review on methods that have been used in the last two decades to predict Stock Market Indexes. Methods studied range from those enabling to grab the linear characteristics present in the stock market indexes, going through those that focus on non-linear features and finally hybrid methods that are more robust, since they capture linear and non-linear features. In addition, this research includes methods that use macroeconomic variables to predict indexes from different stock exchanges around the world.

  12. Predicting Acoustics in Class Rooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Claus Lynge; Rindel, Jens Holger

    2005-01-01

    Typical class rooms have fairly simple geometries, even so room acoustics in this type of room is difficult to predict using today's room acoustic computer modeling software. The reasons why acoustics of class rooms are harder to predict than acoustics of complicated concert halls might...... coefficients that are used in order to describe surface scattering (roughness of material) as well as scattering of reflected sound caused by limited surface size (diffraction). A method which combines scattering caused by diffraction due to surface dimensions, angle of incidence and incident path length...

  13. Predictive models of forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen

    2008-06-13

    Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.

  14. Prediction of dental caries activity

    OpenAIRE

    Crossner, Claes-Göran

    1980-01-01

    The aim of the present thesis was to find a test for prediction of caries activity which would be useful in routine clinical work.Correlations between oral health, general health, food habits and socioeconomic conditions were investigated in 4- and 8-year-old children. It was found that the salivary secretion rate and the prevalence of oral lactobacilli were factors which might be useful in caries prediction.In 5- and 8-year-old children negative correlations between caries frequency and secr...

  15. Dinosaur fossils predict body temperatures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James F Gillooly

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Perhaps the greatest mystery surrounding dinosaurs concerns whether they were endotherms, ectotherms, or some unique intermediate form. Here we present a model that yields estimates of dinosaur body temperature based on ontogenetic growth trajectories obtained from fossil bones. The model predicts that dinosaur body temperatures increased with body mass from approximately 25 degrees C at 12 kg to approximately 41 degrees C at 13,000 kg. The model also successfully predicts observed increases in body temperature with body mass for extant crocodiles. These results provide direct evidence that dinosaurs were reptiles that exhibited inertial homeothermy.

  16. Information criteria for multistep ahead predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Yano, Keisuke; Komaki, Fumiyasu

    2015-01-01

    We propose an information criterion for multistep ahead predictions. It is also used for extrapolations. For the derivation, we consider multistep ahead predictions under local misspecification. In the prediction, we show that Bayesian predictive distributions asymptotically have smaller Kullback--Leibler risks than plug-in predictive distributions. From the results, we construct an information criterion for multistep ahead predictions by using an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Kull...

  17. CERAPP: Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Data from a large-scale modeling project called CERAPP (Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project) demonstrating using predictive computational...

  18. Focus on astronomical predictable events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Aase Roland

    2006-01-01

    At the Steno Museum Planetarium we have for many occasions used a countdown clock to get focus om astronomical events. A countdown clock can provide actuality to predictable events, for example The Venus Transit, Opportunity landing on Mars and The Solar Eclipse. The movement of the clock attracs...

  19. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, Jelle R.; Gutjar, Swetlana; ter Horst, Gert J.; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J.; Jager, Gerry

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments.

  20. Bankruptcy Prediction with Rough Sets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.C. Bioch (Cor); V. Popova (Viara)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe bankruptcy prediction problem can be considered an or dinal classification problem. The classical theory of Rough Sets describes objects by discrete attributes, and does not take into account the order- ing of the attributes values. This paper proposes a modification of the Rough Set

  1. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T J M; Fonseca, Sofia; Araujo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four

  2. Making predictions skill level analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katarína, Krišková; Marián, Kireš

    2017-01-01

    The current trend in the education is focused on skills that are cross-subject and have a great importance for the pupil future life. Pupils should acquire different types of skills during their education to be prepared for future careers and life in the 21st century. Physics as a subject offers many opportunities for pupils' skills development. One of the skills that are expected to be developed in physics and also in other sciences is making predictions. The prediction, in the meaning of the argument about what may happen in the future, is an integral part of the empirical cognition, in which students confront existing knowledge and experience with new, hitherto unknown and surprising phenomena. The extent of the skill is the formulation of hypotheses, which is required in the upper secondary physics education. In the contribution, the prediction skill is specified and its eventual levels are classified. Authors focus on the tools for skill level determination based on the analysis of pupils` worksheets. Worksheets are the part of the educational activities conducted within the Inquiry Science Laboratory Steelpark. Based on the formulation of pupils' prediction the pupils thinking can be seen and their understanding of the topic, as well as preconceptions and misconceptions.

  3. Predictive medical information and underwriting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodge, John H

    2007-01-01

    Medical underwriting involves the application of actuarial science by analyzing medical information to predict the future risk of a claim. The objective is that individuals with like risk are treated in a like manner so that the premium paid is proportional to the risk of future claim.

  4. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...

  5. Solution Patterns Predicting Pythagorean Triples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezenweani, Ugwunna Louis

    2013-01-01

    Pythagoras Theorem is an old mathematical treatise that has traversed the school curricula from secondary to tertiary levels. The patterns it produced are quite interesting that many researchers have tried to generate a kind of predictive approach to identifying triples. Two attempts, namely Diophantine equation and Brahmagupta trapezium presented…

  6. Prediction of Malaysian monthly GDP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei; Yeing, Pan Wei

    2015-12-01

    The paper attempts to use a method based on multivariate power-normal distribution to predict the Malaysian Gross Domestic Product next month. Letting r(t) be the vector consisting of the month-t values on m selected macroeconomic variables, and GDP, we model the month-(t+1) GDP to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1),…,r(t-l+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a [(m+1)l+1]-dimensional power-normal distribution. The 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution may be used to form an out-of sample prediction interval. This interval together with the mean of the conditional distribution may be used to predict the month-(t+1) GDP. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), estimated coverage probability and average length of the prediction interval are used as the criterions for selecting the suitable lag value l-1 and the subset from a pool of 17 macroeconomic variables. It is found that the relatively better models would be those of which 2 ≤ l ≤ 3, and involving one or two of the macroeconomic variables given by Market Indicative Yield, Oil Prices, Exchange Rate and Import Trade.

  7. Predicting Noise From Wind Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grosveld, Ferdinand W.

    1990-01-01

    Computer program WINDY predicts broadband noise spectra of horizontal-axis wind-turbine generators. Enables adequate assessment of impact of broadband wind-turbine noise. Effects of turbulence, trailing-edge wakes, and bluntness taken into account. Program has practical application in design and siting of wind-turbine machines acceptable to community. Written in GW-Basic.

  8. Predicting severity of paranoid schizophrenia

    OpenAIRE

    Kolesnichenko Elena Vladimirovna

    2015-01-01

    Clinical symptoms, course and outcomes of paranoid schizophrenia are polymorphic. 206 cases of paranoid schizophrenia were investigated. Clinical predictors were collected from hospital records and interviews. Quantitative assessment of the severity of schizophrenia as special indexes was used. Schizoid, epileptoid, psychasthenic and conformal accentuation of personality in the premorbid, early onset of psychosis, paranoid and hallucinatory-paranoid variants of onset predicted more expressed ...

  9. Predictive implications of Gompertz's law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richmond, Peter; Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2016-04-01

    Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold up to age 106. At that age the death rate is about 50%. Beyond 106 there is so far no convincing statistical evidence available because the number of survivors are too small even in large nations. However, assuming that Gompertz's law continues to hold beyond 106, we conclude that the mortality rate becomes equal to 1 at age 120 (meaning that there are 1000 deaths in a population of one thousand). In other words, the upper bound of human life is near 120. The existence of this fixed-point has interesting implications. It allows us to predict the form of the relationship between death rates at age 35 and the doubling time of Gompertz's law. In order to test this prediction, we first carry out a transversal analysis for a sample of countries comprising both industrialized and developing nations. As further confirmation, we also develop a longitudinal analysis using historical data over a time period of almost two centuries. Another prediction arising from this fixed-point model, is that, above a given population threshold, the lifespan of the oldest persons is independent of the size of their national community. This prediction is also supported by empirical evidence.

  10. Predicting Leakage in Labyrinth Seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, G. L.; Rhode, D. L.; Cogan, K. C.; Chi, D.; Demko, J.

    1985-01-01

    Analytical and empirical methods evaluated. 264-page report presents comprehensive information on leakage in labyrinth seals. Summarizes previous analyses of leakage, reviews leakage tests conducted by authors and evaluates various analytical and experimental methods of determining leakage and discusses leakage prediction techniques.

  11. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T J M; Fonseca, Sofia; Araujo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four high-

  12. Evoked Emotions Predict Food Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalenberg, J.R.; Gutjar, S.; Horst, ter G.J.; Graaf, de C.; Renken, R.; Jager, G.

    2014-01-01

    In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Th

  13. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  14. Working postures: prediction and evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delleman, N.J.

    1999-01-01

    To date, workstation designers cannot see the effects of a design on working posture before a mock-up/prototype is available. At that moment, usually the margin for creating the conditions required for adopting favourable working postures is still very limited. Posture prediction at an early design

  15. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-09-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  16. Detecting failure of climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

    2016-01-01

    The practical consequences of climate change challenge society to formulate responses that are more suited to achieving long-term objectives, even if those responses have to be made in the face of uncertainty1, 2. Such a decision-analytic focus uses the products of climate science as probabilistic predictions about the effects of management policies3. Here we present methods to detect when climate predictions are failing to capture the system dynamics. For a single model, we measure goodness of fit based on the empirical distribution function, and define failure when the distribution of observed values significantly diverges from the modelled distribution. For a set of models, the same statistic can be used to provide relative weights for the individual models, and we define failure when there is no linear weighting of the ensemble models that produces a satisfactory match to the observations. Early detection of failure of a set of predictions is important for improving model predictions and the decisions based on them. We show that these methods would have detected a range shift in northern pintail 20 years before it was actually discovered, and are increasingly giving more weight to those climate models that forecast a September ice-free Arctic by 2055.

  17. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  18. Predicting Decades of Shoreline Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. D.; McNinch, J.

    2016-12-01

    Nearshore morphology models predicting storm-scale erosion have been in use for the past several decades. These tools have typically focused on a single time-scale, which limits the utilization. The present effort details the development of a physics-based numerical model that incorporates the cross-shore profile evolution as well as the alongshore variation at two distinct time-scales. The new method assumes that frequent (seconds) bed-level updates due to cross-shore transport gradients are necessary, while the longshore sediment balance can be accumulated numerically over times of about a day before the resultant bottom evolution is imposed. The new model remains consistent for use in a single storm as well as predictions for evolution over several decades. Some limitations exist on the longshore uniformity, and appropriate applications include shorelines with gentle variations in the alongshore conditions arising from nonuniform bathymetry or gradients in wave conditions. Sand transport predictions account for wave and current interaction, bedload and suspended load, and wave-related sediment transport. An initial comparison of 20 years of morphological evolution is conducted for Onslow Beach, NC, a gently-varying contiguous sandy barrier island. Shoreline position data are available for the 10 km of coast fronting the Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune. Wave conditions from the long-term WIS wave hindcast are used, while water levels are developed from the available NOAA tide gauge records. With a complete set of boundary and initial conditions, numerical model results constitute a complete 20 year history of transport and morphological evolution. The wave energy directional spectrum is nearly symmetric relative to the shore-normal transect, and although large sand transport is predicted to the North and to the South at times, a relatively small average residual longshore transport is computed. The measured morphological changes are mixed along the length of

  19. Cast iron - a predictable material

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorg C. Sturm

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available High strength compacted graphite iron (CGI or alloyed cast iron components are substituting previously used non-ferrous castings in automotive power train applications. The mechanical engineering industry has recognized the value in substituting forged or welded structures with stiff and light-weight cast iron castings. New products such as wind turbines have opened new markets for an entire suite of highly reliable ductile iron cast components. During the last 20 years, casting process simulation has developed from predicting hot spots and solidification to an integral assessment tool for foundries for the entire manufacturing route of castings. The support of the feeding related layout of the casting is still one of the most important duties for casting process simulation. Depending on the alloy poured, different feeding behaviors and self-feeding capabilities need to be considered to provide a defect free casting. Therefore, it is not enough to base the prediction of shrinkage defects solely on hot spots derived from temperature fields. To be able to quantitatively predict these defects, solidification simulation had to be combined with density and mass transport calculations, in order to evaluate the impact of the solidification morphology on the feeding behavior as well as to consider alloy dependent feeding ranges. For cast iron foundries, the use of casting process simulation has become an important instrument to predict the robustness and reliability of their processes, especially since the influence of alloying elements, melting practice and metallurgy need to be considered to quantify the special shrinkage and solidification behavior of cast iron. This allows the prediction of local structures, phases and ultimately the local mechanical properties of cast irons, to asses casting quality in the foundry but also to make use of this quantitative information during design of the casting. Casting quality issues related to thermally driven

  20. Kunstikonteiner on avatud kõigile headele ideedele / Tanel Saar, Sandra Jõgeva ; interv. R[eet] V[arblane

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Saar, Tanel

    2007-01-01

    Polymeri kultuuritehases Tallinnas (Ülase 16 / Madara 22) tegutsevast Academia Non Grata filiaalist ja alternatiivgaleriist Nongrata Kunstikonteiner. Näitustest, tulevikuplaanidest. Avanäituseks oli "Uus laine. 21. sajandi kunst", juuni lõpuni on avatud rahvusvahelise performance'ifestivali "Diverse Universe III" avanäitus "Aderlassenplatz" ja "Uus laine. II valik: tegevuskunst"

  1. Patricia Paperman, Sandra Laugier, éds., Le souci des autres. Éthique et politique du care

    OpenAIRE

    Bosselut, Clémence

    2007-01-01

    Le titre de cet ouvrage est une proposition de traduction du terme anglais « care », généralement traduit en français par « soin », « sollicitude » ou « souci ». Le concept, polysémique, recouvre à la fois les champs de la souffrance et de l'assistance et a connu depuis le début des années 1980 une bonne fortune dans le champ académique anglo-saxon, alors que l'accueil en France était plus mesuré voir inexistant. Le livre fondateur de Carol Gilligan (In a Different Voice) sert de base de disc...

  2. Vormiriietus teeb koolilapse shikiks ja paneb väärikalt käituma / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    Eesti koolides kantavatest koolivormidest. Pikemalt Katrin Kivi disainitud Tallinna Saksa gümnaasiumi koolivormist ja Tallinna Arte gümnaasiumi koolivormist. Katrin Kivi ja Peeter Kreitzbergi kommentaarid. 8 ill.

  3. Õpetajate-õpilaste interaktsioon ja sisuloome suhtlusportaalides : õpetajate arvamused ja kogemused / Sandra Räim, Andra Siibak

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Räim, Sandra

    2014-01-01

    Keskkooliõpetajatega läbi viidud intervjuude tulemused viitavad veebisisu loomega kaasnevatele põlvkondlikele erinevustele ning avavad õpetajate-õpilaste probleeme suhtlusportaali auditooriumi tajumisel

  4. Normative climates of parenthood across Europe: judging voluntay childlessness and working parents / Veronique Eicher, Richard A. Settersten, Sandra Penic ...[jt.

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2016-01-01

    Artiklis käsitletakse ühiskonna normatiivse kliima mõju indiviidi hoiakutele kahe ebatraditsioonilise soorolli (vabatahtlik lastetus ja töötamine täistööajaga ajal, mil lapsed on väiksed) puhul, aluseks 21 riigi (sh Eesti) Euroopa sotsiaaluuringu andmed

  5. Normative climates of parenthood across Europe: judging voluntay childlessness and working parents / Veronique Eicher, Richard A. Settersten, Sandra Penic ...[jt.

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2016-01-01

    Artiklis käsitletakse ühiskonna normatiivse kliima mõju indiviidi hoiakutele kahe ebatraditsioonilise soorolli (vabatahtlik lastetus ja töötamine täistööajaga ajal, mil lapsed on väiksed) puhul, aluseks 21 riigi (sh Eesti) Euroopa sotsiaaluuringu andmed

  6. Õpetajate-õpilaste interaktsioon ja sisuloome suhtlusportaalides : õpetajate arvamused ja kogemused / Sandra Räim, Andra Siibak

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Räim, Sandra

    2014-01-01

    Keskkooliõpetajatega läbi viidud intervjuude tulemused viitavad veebisisu loomega kaasnevatele põlvkondlikele erinevustele ning avavad õpetajate-õpilaste probleeme suhtlusportaali auditooriumi tajumisel

  7. Kunstikonteiner on avatud kõigile headele ideedele / Tanel Saar, Sandra Jõgeva ; interv. R[eet] V[arblane

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Saar, Tanel

    2007-01-01

    Polymeri kultuuritehases Tallinnas (Ülase 16 / Madara 22) tegutsevast Academia Non Grata filiaalist ja alternatiivgaleriist Nongrata Kunstikonteiner. Näitustest, tulevikuplaanidest. Avanäituseks oli "Uus laine. 21. sajandi kunst", juuni lõpuni on avatud rahvusvahelise performance'ifestivali "Diverse Universe III" avanäitus "Aderlassenplatz" ja "Uus laine. II valik: tegevuskunst"

  8. Vormiriietus teeb koolilapse shikiks ja paneb väärikalt käituma / Sandra Maasalu

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Maasalu, Sandra

    2008-01-01

    Eesti koolides kantavatest koolivormidest. Pikemalt Katrin Kivi disainitud Tallinna Saksa gümnaasiumi koolivormist ja Tallinna Arte gümnaasiumi koolivormist. Katrin Kivi ja Peeter Kreitzbergi kommentaarid. 8 ill.

  9. Summertime Thunderstorms Prediction in Belarus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapo, Palina; Sokolovskaya, Yaroslava; Krasouski, Aliaksandr; Svetashev, Alexander; Turishev, Leonid; Barodka, Siarhei

    2015-04-01

    Mesoscale modeling with the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) system makes it possible to predict thunderstorm formation events by direct numerical simulation. In the present study, we analyze the feasibility and quality of thunderstorm prediction on the territory of Belarus for the summer period of 2014 based on analysis of several characteristic parameters in WRF modeling results that can serve as indicators of thunderstorms formation. These parameters include vertical velocity distribution, convective available potential energy (CAPE), K-index, SWEAT-index, Thompson index, lifted condensation level (LCL), and others, all of them being indicators of favorable atmospheric conditions for thunderstorms development. We perform mesoscale simulations of several cases of thunderstorm development in Belarus with WRF-ARW modeling system using 3 km grid spacing, WSM6 microphysics parameterization and explicit convection (no convective parameterization). Typical modeling duration makes 48 hours, which is equivalent to next-day thunderstorm prediction in operational use. We focus our attention to most prominent cases of intense thunderstorms in Minsk. For validation purposes, we use radar and satellite data in addition to surface observations. In summertime, the territory of Belarus is quite often under the influence of atmospheric fronts and stationary anticyclones. In this study, we subdivide thunderstorm cases under consideration into 2 categories: thunderstorms related to free convection and those related to forced convection processes. Our aim is to study the differences in thunderstorm indicator parameters between these two categories of thunderstorms in order to elaborate a set of parameters that can be used for operational thunderstorm forecasting. For that purpose, we analyze characteristic features of thunderstorms development on cold atmospheric fronts as well as thunderstorms formation in stable air masses. Modeling results demonstrate good predictive skill

  10. Predictive Terminal Guidance With Tuning of Prediction Horizon & Constrained Control .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Talole

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available Continvojs time-predictive control approach is employed to formulate an output tracking nonlinear, optimal, terminal guidance ,law for re-entry vehicles. The notable features of this formulation are that the system equations are not linearised and the evaluation of the guidanceequations does not need the information of vehicle parameters, such as drag and mass. The formulation allows to impose the physical constrains on the control inputs, i..e. on the demanded lateral acceleliations through a saturation mapping and the controls are obtained using a fixed pointiteration algorithm which converges typically in a few iterations. Further, a simple method of tuning the prediction horizon needed in the guidance equations is presented. Numerical simulations show that the guidance law achieves almost zero terminal errors in all states despite large errors in initial Conditions.

  11. Multiphase, multicomponent phase behavior prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadmohammadi, Younas

    Accurate prediction of phase behavior of fluid mixtures in the chemical industry is essential for designing and operating a multitude of processes. Reliable generalized predictions of phase equilibrium properties, such as pressure, temperature, and phase compositions offer an attractive alternative to costly and time consuming experimental measurements. The main purpose of this work was to assess the efficacy of recently generalized activity coefficient models based on binary experimental data to (a) predict binary and ternary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems, and (b) characterize liquid-liquid equilibrium systems. These studies were completed using a diverse binary VLE database consisting of 916 binary and 86 ternary systems involving 140 compounds belonging to 31 chemical classes. Specifically the following tasks were undertaken: First, a comprehensive assessment of the two common approaches (gamma-phi (gamma-ϕ) and phi-phi (ϕ-ϕ)) used for determining the phase behavior of vapor-liquid equilibrium systems is presented. Both the representation and predictive capabilities of these two approaches were examined, as delineated form internal and external consistency tests of 916 binary systems. For the purpose, the universal quasi-chemical (UNIQUAC) model and the Peng-Robinson (PR) equation of state (EOS) were used in this assessment. Second, the efficacy of recently developed generalized UNIQUAC and the nonrandom two-liquid (NRTL) for predicting multicomponent VLE systems were investigated. Third, the abilities of recently modified NRTL model (mNRTL2 and mNRTL1) to characterize liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) phase conditions and attributes, including phase stability, miscibility, and consolute point coordinates, were assessed. The results of this work indicate that the ϕ-ϕ approach represents the binary VLE systems considered within three times the error of the gamma-ϕ approach. A similar trend was observed for the for the generalized model predictions using

  12. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  13. Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohr, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

  14. Predictive Control of Speededness in Adaptive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Linden, Wim J.

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive testing method is presented that controls the speededness of a test using predictions of the test takers' response times on the candidate items in the pool. Two different types of predictions are investigated: posterior predictions given the actual response times on the items already administered and posterior predictions that use the…

  15. Colored Noise Prediction Based on Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Fei; Zhang Xiaohui

    2003-01-01

    A method for predicting colored noise by introducing prediction of nonhnear time series is presented By adopting three kinds of neural networks prediction models, the colored noise prediction is studied through changing the filter bandwidth for stochastic noise and the sampling rate for colored noise The results show that colored noise can be predicted The prediction error decreases with the increasing of the sampling rate or the narrowing of the filter bandwidth. If the parameters are selected properly, the prediction precision can meet the requirement of engineering implementation. The results offer a new reference way for increasing the ability for detecting weak signal in signal processing system

  16. Simulation, situated conceptualization, and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsalou, Lawrence W

    2009-05-12

    Based on accumulating evidence, simulation appears to be a basic computational mechanism in the brain that supports a broad spectrum of processes from perception to social cognition. Further evidence suggests that simulation is typically situated, with the situated character of experience in the environment being reflected in the situated character of the representations that underlie simulation. A basic architecture is sketched of how the brain implements situated simulation. Within this framework, simulators implement the concepts that underlie knowledge, and situated conceptualizations capture patterns of multi-modal simulation associated with frequently experienced situations. A pattern completion inference mechanism uses current perception to activate situated conceptualizations that produce predictions via simulations on relevant modalities. Empirical findings from perception, action, working memory, conceptual processing, language and social cognition illustrate how this framework produces the extensive prediction that characterizes natural intelligence.

  17. Predictive State Temporal Difference Learning

    CERN Document Server

    Boots, Byron

    2010-01-01

    We propose a new approach to value function approximation which combines linear temporal difference reinforcement learning with subspace identification. In practical applications, reinforcement learning (RL) is complicated by the fact that state is either high-dimensional or partially observable. Therefore, RL methods are designed to work with features of state rather than state itself, and the success or failure of learning is often determined by the suitability of the selected features. By comparison, subspace identification (SSID) methods are designed to select a feature set which preserves as much information as possible about state. In this paper we connect the two approaches, looking at the problem of reinforcement learning with a large set of features, each of which may only be marginally useful for value function approximation. We introduce a new algorithm for this situation, called Predictive State Temporal Difference (PSTD) learning. As in SSID for predictive state representations, PSTD finds a line...

  18. Action semantics modulate action prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springer, Anne; Prinz, Wolfgang

    2010-11-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that action prediction involves an internal action simulation that runs time-locked to the real action. The present study replicates and extends these findings by indicating a real-time simulation process (Graf et al., 2007), which can be differentiated from a similarity-based evaluation of internal action representations. Moreover, results showed that action semantics modulate action prediction accuracy. The semantic effect was specified by the processing of action verbs and concrete nouns (Experiment 1) and, more specifically, by the dynamics described by action verbs (Experiment 2) and the speed described by the verbs (e.g., "to catch" vs. "to grasp" vs. "to stretch"; Experiment 3). These results propose a linkage between action simulation and action semantics as two yet unrelated domains, a view that coincides with a recent notion of a close link between motor processes and the understanding of action language.

  19. Predicting responses from Rasch measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linacre, John M

    2010-01-01

    There is a growing family of Rasch models for polytomous observations. Selecting a suitable model for an existing dataset, estimating its parameters and evaluating its fit is now routine. Problems arise when the model parameters are to be estimated from the current data, but used to predict future data. In particular, ambiguities in the nature of the current data, or overfit of the model to the current dataset, may mean that better fit to the current data may lead to worse fit to future data. The predictive power of several Rasch and Rasch-related models are discussed in the context of the Netflix Prize. Rasch-related models are proposed based on Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Boltzmann Machines.

  20. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    -trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE......) is more robust than standard Monte Carlo search. In the second approach for reconstruction of C-traces, an exact branch and bound algorithm has been developed [67, 65]. The model is discrete and makes use of secondary structure predictions, HSE, CN and radius of gyration. We show how to compute good lower...... bounds for partial structures very fast. Using these lower bounds, we are able to find global minimum structures in a huge conformational space in reasonable time. We show that many of these global minimum structures are of good quality compared to the native structure. Our branch and bound algorithm...

  1. On long term climate prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thatcher, M.

    1990-08-01

    On the occasion of the opening of The Hadley Centre in Bracknell, Berkshire on May 25, 1990, Britain's Prime Minister, the Rt. Hon. Margaret Thatcher, FRS, related the significance of the Centre to the Scientific Assessment Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change which was published on the same day. The Report confirms that greenhouse gases are increasing substantially as a result of man's activites; that this will warm the Earth's surface, with serious consequences for us all, and that these consequences are capable of prediction. We want to predict them more accurately. Calling the Report an authoritative early warning system which could be ignored only at great risk to future generations, Mrs. Margaret Thatcher described the role of the Centre in enabling the establishment of a realistic international program and timetable for action.

  2. Time-Predictable Virtual Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Puffitsch, Wolfgang; Schoeberl, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Virtual memory is an important feature of modern computer architectures. For hard real-time systems, memory protection is a particularly interesting feature of virtual memory. However, current memory management units are not designed for time-predictability and therefore cannot be used...... in such systems. This paper investigates the requirements on virtual memory from the perspective of hard real-time systems and presents the design of a time-predictable memory management unit. Our evaluation shows that the proposed design can be implemented efficiently. The design allows address translation...... and address range checking in constant time of two clock cycles on a cache miss. This constant time is in strong contrast to the possible cost of a miss in a translation look-aside buffer in traditional virtual memory organizations. Compared to a platform without a memory management unit, these two additional...

  3. Predicting Failures in Power Grids

    CERN Document Server

    Chertkov, Michael; Stepanov, Mikhail G

    2010-01-01

    Here we develop an approach to predict power grid weak points, and specifically to efficiently identify the most probable failure modes in load distribution for a given power network. This approach is applied to two examples: Guam's power system and also the IEEE RTS-96 system, both modeled within the static Direct Current power flow model. Our algorithm is a power network adaption of the worst configuration heuristics, originally developed to study low probability events in physics and failures in error-correction. One finding is that, if the normal operational mode of the grid is sufficiently healthy, the failure modes, also called instantons, are sufficiently sparse, i.e. the failures are caused by load fluctuations at only a few buses. The technique is useful for discovering weak links which are saturated at the instantons. It can also identify overutilized and underutilized generators, thus providing predictive capability for improving the reliability of any power network.

  4. Algorithms for Protein Structure Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paluszewski, Martin

    -trace. Here we present three different approaches for reconstruction of C-traces from predictable measures. In our first approach [63, 62], the C-trace is positioned on a lattice and a tabu-search algorithm is applied to find minimum energy structures. The energy function is based on half-sphere-exposure (HSE......) is more robust than standard Monte Carlo search. In the second approach for reconstruction of C-traces, an exact branch and bound algorithm has been developed [67, 65]. The model is discrete and makes use of secondary structure predictions, HSE, CN and radius of gyration. We show how to compute good lower...... bounds for partial structures very fast. Using these lower bounds, we are able to find global minimum structures in a huge conformational space in reasonable time. We show that many of these global minimum structures are of good quality compared to the native structure. Our branch and bound algorithm...

  5. WAVE ASSIMILATION AND NUMERICAL PREDICTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    An adjoint variational method for wave data assimilation in the LAGFD-WAM wave model is proposed. The adjoint equation of the wavenumber energy spectrum balance equation is derived. And fortunately, its characteristic equations are the same as those in the LAGFD-WAM wave model. Simple experiments on the functional optimization and assimilation effectiveness during the prediction period indicated that the adjoint variational method is effective for wave assimilation and that the initial optimization of the wave model is important for the short-range wave prediction. All of this is under the assumption that the wind field is accurate, the method is the important first step for combined wind and wave data assimilation systems.

  6. The ethics of earthquake prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sol, Ayhan; Turan, Halil

    2004-10-01

    Scientists' responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be justified by any ends, and (ii) a rights view according to which individuals should never be treated as a mere means to ends. The Parkfield experiment, the so-called paradigm case of cooperation between natural and social scientists and the political authorities in hazard management and risk communication, is also open to similar ethical criticism. For the people in the Parkfield area were not informed that the whole experiment was based on a contested seismological paradigm.

  7. Time-Predictable Computer Architecture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schoeberl Martin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Today's general-purpose processors are optimized for maximum throughput. Real-time systems need a processor with both a reasonable and a known worst-case execution time (WCET. Features such as pipelines with instruction dependencies, caches, branch prediction, and out-of-order execution complicate WCET analysis and lead to very conservative estimates. In this paper, we evaluate the issues of current architectures with respect to WCET analysis. Then, we propose solutions for a time-predictable computer architecture. The proposed architecture is evaluated with implementation of some features in a Java processor. The resulting processor is a good target for WCET analysis and still performs well in the average case.

  8. Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Mejer, Avihai

    2011-01-01

    Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...

  9. ESPC Regional Arctic Prediction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    the Navy the capability to conduct short-term (1 week) to extended (2 weeks) coupled weather forecasts for the Arctic region. APPROACH To...sensitivity of the Arctic weather forecast to key numerical parameters; and 5) conduct extensive validation and verification of the coupled system and...SEP 2014 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ESPC Regional Arctic Prediction System 5a. CONTRACT

  10. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  11. Are Some Semantic Changes Predictable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schousboe, Steen

    2010-01-01

      Historical linguistics is traditionally concerned with phonology and syntax. With the exception of grammaticalization - the development of auxiliary verbs, the syntactic rather than localistic use of prepositions, etc. - semantic change has usually not been described as a result of regular deve...... developments, but only as specific meaning changes in individual words. This paper will suggest some regularities in semantic change, regularities which, like sound laws, have predictive power and can be tested against recorded languages....

  12. Prediction of future asset prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seong, Ng Yew; Hin, Pooi Ah; Ching, Soo Huei

    2014-12-01

    This paper attempts to incorporate trading volumes as an additional predictor for predicting asset prices. Denoting r(t) as the vector consisting of the time-t values of the trading volume and price of a given asset, we model the time-(t+1) asset price to be dependent on the present and l-1 past values r(t), r(t-1), ....., r(t-1+1) via a conditional distribution which is derived from a (2l+1)-dimensional power-normal distribution. A prediction interval based on the 100(α/2)% and 100(1-α/2)% points of the conditional distribution is then obtained. By examining the average lengths of the prediction intervals found by using the composite indices of the Malaysia stock market for the period 2008 to 2013, we found that the value 2 appears to be a good choice for l. With the omission of the trading volume in the vector r(t), the corresponding prediction interval exhibits a slightly longer average length, showing that it might be desirable to keep trading volume as a predictor. From the above conditional distribution, the probability that the time-(t+1) asset price will be larger than the time-t asset price is next computed. When the probability differs from 0 (or 1) by less than 0.03, the observed time-(t+1) increase in price tends to be negative (or positive). Thus the above probability has a good potential of being used as a market indicator in technical analysis.

  13. Shoulder dystocia: prediction and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Meghan G; Cohen, Wayne R

    2016-01-01

    Shoulder dystocia is a complication of vaginal delivery and the primary factor associated with brachial plexus injury. In this review, we discuss the risk factors for shoulder dystocia and propose a framework for the prediction and prevention of the complication. A recommended approach to management when shoulder dystocia occurs is outlined, with review of the maneuvers used to relieve the obstruction with minimal risk of fetal and maternal injury.

  14. Predicted halflives for cluster radioactivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poenaru, D. N.; Greiner, W.; Ivascu, M.

    1989-10-01

    The main results of the analytical superasymmetric fission model, describing in a unified manner cluster radioactivities, alpha-decay and cold fission processes, are briefly reviewed. Predicted halflives for 14C, 24, 25, 26Ne, 28, 30Mg and 32Si radioactivities in the range 10 11-10 26 s and the corresponding branching ratios relative to α-decay 10 -16 - 10 -9 have been experimentally confirmed within 1.5 orders of magnitude.

  15. Prediction for RNA planar pseudoknots

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Hengwu; Zhu Daming; Liu Zhendong; Li Hong

    2007-01-01

    Based on m-stems and semi-extensible structure, a model is presented to represent RNA planar pseudoknots, and corresponding dynamic programming algorithm is designed and implemented to predict arbitrary planar pseudoknots and simple non-planar pseudoknots with O(n4) time and O(n3) space. The algorithm folds total 245 sequences in the Pseudobase database, and the test results indicate that the algorithm has good accuracy, sensitivity and specificity.

  16. The Clinical Prediction of Dangerousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-05-01

    executive potential, psychopathy , suicidality and so forth. Unfor- tunately, this is not the case. There tend to be substantial dif- ferences among...Prediction from case material to personality data. New York Archives of Psychology, 29 (No. 207). Hare, R. D. (1970). Psychopathy : Theory and research. New...1967). Psychopathy , mental deficiency, aggressiveness, and the XYY syndrome. Nature, 214, (5087), 500-501. Wexler, D. (1979). Patients, therapists

  17. Structure Prediction of Membrane Proteins

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chunlong Zhou; Yao Zheng; Yan Zhou

    2004-01-01

    There is a large gap between the number of membrane protein (MP) sequences and that of their decoded 3D structures, especially high-resolution structures, due to difficulties in crystal preparation of MPs. However, detailed knowledge of the 3D structure is required for the fundamental understanding of the function of an MP and the interactions between the protein and its inhibitors or activators. In this paper, some computational approaches that have been used to predict MP structures are discussed and compared.

  18. Finite Unification: Theory and Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven Heinemeyer

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs are very interesting N=1 supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories (GUTs which not only realise an old field theoretic dream but also have a remarkable predictive power due to the required reduction of couplings. The reduction of the dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exist RGI relations among dimensionless couplings that guarantee the vanishing of all beta-functions in certain N=1 GUTs even to all orders. Furthermore developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations, i.e. reduction of couplings, in this dimensionful sector of the theory too. Based on the above theoretical framework phenomenologically consistent FUTS have been constructed. Here we present FUT models based on the SU(5 and SU(3^3 gauge groups and their predictions. Of particular interest is the Higgs mass prediction of one of the models which is expected to be tested at the LHC.

  19. Prediction During Natural Language Comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Roel M; Frank, Stefan L; Nijhof, Annabel D; Hagoort, Peter; van den Bosch, Antal

    2016-06-01

    The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as well as surprisal A computational model determined entropy and surprisal for each word in 3 literary stories. Twenty-four healthy participants listened to the same 3 stories while their brain activation was measured using fMRI. Reversed speech fragments were presented as a control condition. Brain areas sensitive to entropy were left ventral premotor cortex, left middle frontal gyrus, right inferior frontal gyrus, left inferior parietal lobule, and left supplementary motor area. Areas sensitive to surprisal were left inferior temporal sulcus ("visual word form area"), bilateral superior temporal gyrus, right amygdala, bilateral anterior temporal poles, and right inferior frontal sulcus. We conclude that prediction during language comprehension can occur at several levels of processing, including at the level of word form. Our study exemplifies the power of combining computational linguistics with cognitive neuroscience, and additionally underlines the feasibility of studying continuous spoken language materials with fMRI. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Neuroanatomy Predicts Individual Risk Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  1. Using Predictive Analytics to Predict Power Outages from Severe Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanik, D. W.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Frediani, M. E.; Astitha, M.

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of reliable power is essential to businesses, public services, and our daily lives. With the growing abundance of data being collected and created by industry (i.e. outage data), government agencies (i.e. land cover), and academia (i.e. weather forecasts), we can begin to tackle problems that previously seemed too complex to solve. In this session, we will present newly developed tools to aid decision-support challenges at electric distribution utilities that must mitigate, prepare for, respond to and recover from severe weather. We will show a performance evaluation of outage predictive models built for Eversource Energy (formerly Connecticut Light & Power) for storms of all types (i.e. blizzards, thunderstorms and hurricanes) and magnitudes (from 20 to >15,000 outages). High resolution weather simulations (simulated with the Weather and Research Forecast Model) were joined with utility outage data to calibrate four types of models: a decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), boosted gradient tree (BT) and an ensemble (ENS) decision tree regression that combined predictions from DT, RF and BT. The study shows that the ENS model forced with weather, infrastructure and land cover data was superior to the other models we evaluated, especially in terms of predicting the spatial distribution of outages. This research has the potential to be used for other critical infrastructure systems (such as telecommunications, drinking water and gas distribution networks), and can be readily expanded to the entire New England region to facilitate better planning and coordination among decision-makers when severe weather strikes.

  2. Predictive and Neural Predictive Control of Uncertain Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelkar, Atul G.

    2000-01-01

    Accomplishments and future work are:(1) Stability analysis: the work completed includes characterization of stability of receding horizon-based MPC in the setting of LQ paradigm. The current work-in-progress includes analyzing local as well as global stability of the closed-loop system under various nonlinearities; for example, actuator nonlinearities; sensor nonlinearities, and other plant nonlinearities. Actuator nonlinearities include three major types of nonlineaxities: saturation, dead-zone, and (0, 00) sector. (2) Robustness analysis: It is shown that receding horizon parameters such as input and output horizon lengths have direct effect on the robustness of the system. (3) Code development: A matlab code has been developed which can simulate various MPC formulations. The current effort is to generalize the code to include ability to handle all plant types and all MPC types. (4) Improved predictor: It is shown that MPC design using better predictors that can minimize prediction errors. It is shown analytically and numerically that Smith predictor can provide closed-loop stability under GPC operation for plants with dead times where standard optimal predictor fails. (5) Neural network predictors: When neural network is used as predictor it can be shown that neural network predicts the plant output within some finite error bound under certain conditions. Our preliminary study shows that with proper choice of update laws and network architectures such bound can be obtained. However, much work needs to be done to obtain a similar result in general case.

  3. Wine Expertise Predicts Taste Phenotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, John E; Pickering, Gary J

    2012-03-01

    Taste phenotypes have long been studied in relation to alcohol intake, dependence, and family history, with contradictory findings. However, on balance - with appropriate caveats about populations tested, outcomes measured and psychophysical methods used - an association between variation in taste responsiveness and some alcohol behaviors is supported. Recent work suggests super-tasting (operationalized via propylthiouracil (PROP) bitterness) not only associates with heightened response but also with more acute discrimination between stimuli. Here, we explore relationships between food and beverage adventurousness and taste phenotype. A convenience sample of wine drinkers (n=330) were recruited in Ontario and phenotyped for PROP bitterness via filter paper disk. They also filled out a short questionnaire regarding willingness to try new foods, alcoholic beverages and wines as well as level of wine involvement, which was used to classify them as a wine expert (n=110) or wine consumer (n=220). In univariate logisitic models, food adventurousness predicted trying new wines and beverages but not expertise. Likewise, wine expertise predicted willingness to try new wines and beverages but not foods. In separate multivariate logistic models, willingness to try new wines and beverages was predicted by expertise and food adventurousness but not PROP. However, mean PROP bitterness was higher among wine experts than wine consumers, and the conditional distribution functions differed between experts and consumers. In contrast, PROP means and distributions did not differ with food adventurousness. These data suggest individuals may self-select for specific professions based on sensory ability (i.e., an active gene-environment correlation) but phenotype does not explain willingness to try new stimuli.

  4. Aviation turbulence processes, detection, prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Lane, Todd

    2016-01-01

    Anyone who has experienced turbulence in flight knows that it is usually not pleasant, and may wonder why this is so difficult to avoid. The book includes papers by various aviation turbulence researchers and provides background into the nature and causes of atmospheric turbulence that affect aircraft motion, and contains surveys of the latest techniques for remote and in situ sensing and forecasting of the turbulence phenomenon. It provides updates on the state-of-the-art research since earlier studies in the 1960s on clear-air turbulence, explains recent new understanding into turbulence generation by thunderstorms, and summarizes future challenges in turbulence prediction and avoidance.

  5. Predicting word sense annotation agreement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Alonso, Hector; Johannsen, Anders Trærup; Lopez de Lacalle, Oier

    2015-01-01

    High agreement is a common objective when annotating data for word senses. However, a number of factors make perfect agreement impossible, e.g. the limitations of the sense inventories, the difficulty of the examples or the interpretation preferences of the annotations. Estimating potential...... agreement is thus a relevant task to supplement the evaluation of sense annotations. In this article we propose two methods to predict agreement on word-annotation instances. We experiment with a continuous representation and a three-way discretization of observed agreement. In spite of the difficulty...

  6. Making predictions in the multiverse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freivogel, Ben, E-mail: benfreivogel@gmail.com [Center for Theoretical Physics and Laboratory for Nuclear Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States)

    2011-10-21

    I describe reasons to think we are living in an eternally inflating multiverse where the observable 'constants' of nature vary from place to place. The major obstacle to making predictions in this context is that we must regulate the infinities of eternal inflation. I review a number of proposed regulators, or measures. Recent work has ruled out a number of measures by showing that they conflict with observation, and focused attention on a few proposals. Further, several different measures have been shown to be equivalent. I describe some of the many nontrivial tests these measures will face as we learn more from theory, experiment and observation.

  7. Learning to predict chemical reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayala, Matthew A; Azencott, Chloé-Agathe; Chen, Jonathan H; Baldi, Pierre

    2011-09-26

    Being able to predict the course of arbitrary chemical reactions is essential to the theory and applications of organic chemistry. Approaches to the reaction prediction problems can be organized around three poles corresponding to: (1) physical laws; (2) rule-based expert systems; and (3) inductive machine learning. Previous approaches at these poles, respectively, are not high throughput, are not generalizable or scalable, and lack sufficient data and structure to be implemented. We propose a new approach to reaction prediction utilizing elements from each pole. Using a physically inspired conceptualization, we describe single mechanistic reactions as interactions between coarse approximations of molecular orbitals (MOs) and use topological and physicochemical attributes as descriptors. Using an existing rule-based system (Reaction Explorer), we derive a restricted chemistry data set consisting of 1630 full multistep reactions with 2358 distinct starting materials and intermediates, associated with 2989 productive mechanistic steps and 6.14 million unproductive mechanistic steps. And from machine learning, we pose identifying productive mechanistic steps as a statistical ranking, information retrieval problem: given a set of reactants and a description of conditions, learn a ranking model over potential filled-to-unfilled MO interactions such that the top-ranked mechanistic steps yield the major products. The machine learning implementation follows a two-stage approach, in which we first train atom level reactivity filters to prune 94.00% of nonproductive reactions with a 0.01% error rate. Then, we train an ensemble of ranking models on pairs of interacting MOs to learn a relative productivity function over mechanistic steps in a given system. Without the use of explicit transformation patterns, the ensemble perfectly ranks the productive mechanism at the top 89.05% of the time, rising to 99.86% of the time when the top four are considered. Furthermore, the system

  8. Climate Prediction through Statistical Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Akgun, Bora; Tuter, Levent; Kurnaz, Mehmet Levent

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating the statistical connection between the climate types of the present and these local temperatures. We are relating this issue to some well-known historic climate shifts. Our main result is that the temperature fluctuations with or without a temperature scale attached to them, can be used to classify climates in the absence of other indicators such as pan evaporation and precipitation.

  9. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tahhan, Antonio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Muchmore, Cody [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Nichols, Larinda [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bhandari, Bishwo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  10. Prediction of Swedish Harness Racing.

    OpenAIRE

    Josefsson, Jonas; Hellander, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Harness racing is a sport where betting most often is done based on historical performances and known conditions from each horse. With up to 12-15 horses in each race and with a quite large set of data for each horse, harness racing seemed to be very suitable for some statistical modeling and regression analysis. The main goal of this project was to construct a model that predicts the outcome of a race better than the odds. To achieve this, many dierent covariates, and combinations of them, h...

  11. Prediction based on mean subset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik

    2002-01-01

    Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...... the coefficient vectors from each subset should be weighted. It is not computationally feasible to calculate the mean subset coefficient vector for larger problems, and thus we suggest an algorithm to find an approximation to the mean subset coefficient vector. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study...

  12. Predicted halflives for cluster radioactivities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poenaru, D.N. (Institutul Central de Fizica, Bucharest (Romania); Frankfurt Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik); Greiner, W. (Frankfurt Univ. (Germany, F.R.). Inst. fuer Theoretische Physik); Ivascu, M. (Institutul Central de Fizica, Bucharest (Romania))

    1989-10-09

    The main results of the analytical superasymmetric fission model, describing in a unified manner cluster radioactivities, alpha-decay and cold fission processes, are briefly reviewed. Predicted halflives for {sup 14}C, {sup 24,25,26}Ne, {sup 28,30}Mg and {sup 32}Si radioactivities in the range 10{sup 11}-10{sup 26} s and the corresponding branching ratios relative to {alpha}-decay 10{sup -16}-10{sup -9} have been experimentally confirmed within 1.5 orders of magnitude. (orig.).

  13. Prenatal prediction of pulmonary hypoplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triebwasser, Jourdan E; Treadwell, Marjorie C

    2017-03-15

    Pulmonary hypoplasia, although rare, is associated with significant neonatal morbidity and mortality. Conditions associated with pulmonary hypoplasia include those which limit normal thoracic capacity or movement, including skeletal dysplasias and abdominal wall defects; those with mass effect, including congenital diaphragmatic hernia and pleural effusions; and those with decreased amniotic fluid, including preterm, premature rupture of membranes, and genitourinary anomalies. The ability to predict severe pulmonary hypoplasia prenatally aids in family counseling, as well as obstetric and neonatal management. The objective of this review is to outline the imaging techniques that are widely used prenatally to assess pulmonary hypoplasia and to discuss the limitations of these methods.

  14. Predicting Ship Fuel Consumption: Update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-07-01

    ship propulsion fuel consumption as a function of ship speed for U.S. Navy combatant and auxiliary ships. Prediction is based on fitting an analytic function to published ship class speed-fuel use data using nonlinear regression. The form of the analytic function fitted is motivated by the literature on ship powering and resistance. The report discusses data sources and data issues, and the impact of ship propulsion plant configuration on fuel use. The regression coefficients of the exponential function fitted, tabular numerical comparison of

  15. MPC-Relevant Prediction-Error Identification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    model is realized from a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system specified using transfer functions with time-delays. It is argued that the prediction-error criterion should be selected such that it is compatible with the objective function of the predictive controller in which the model......A prediction-error-method tailored for model based predictive control is presented. The prediction-error method studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model. The linear discrete-time stochastic state space...

  16. Improving the prediction of chaotic time series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李克平; 高自友; 陈天仑

    2003-01-01

    One of the features of deterministic chaos is sensitive to initial conditions. This feature limits the prediction horizons of many chaotic systems. In this paper, we propose a new prediction technique for chaotic time series. In our method, some neighbouring points of the predicted point, for which the corresponding local Lyapunov exponent is particularly large, would be discarded during estimating the local dynamics, and thus the error accumulated by the prediction algorithm is reduced. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of Lorenz systems. The simulation results indicate that the prediction technique can improve the prediction of chaotic time series.

  17. Radio Channel State Prediction by Kalman Filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Ziacik

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article there is the description Kalman filter using as a radio channel state predictor. Simulator of prediction has been created in MATLAB environment and it is capable to simulate the prediction of radio signal envelope by Clark’s model of radio channel, which is implemented to the simulator. Simulations were realized for prediction range 0.41 ms and 6.24 ms and as comparing criterion we used the prediction error. It is clear from simulations, that with the duration of prediction the prediction error is enlarging, which may cause the erroneous decision of adaptation algorithms.

  18. The limits to stock return predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Robertson, D.; Wright, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    We examine predictive return regressions from a new angle. We ask what observable\\ud univariate properties of returns tell us about the “predictive space” that defines the true\\ud predictive model: the triplet ¡\\ud λ, R2\\ud x, ρ¢\\ud , where λ is the predictor’s persistence, R2\\ud x is the\\ud predictive R-squared, and ρ is the "Stambaugh Correlation" (between innovations in the\\ud predictive system). When returns are nearly white noise, and the variance ratio slopes\\ud downwards, the predictive...

  19. Menopause prediction and potential implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daan, Nadine M P; Fauser, Bart C J M

    2015-11-01

    Reproductive ageing in women is characterized by a decline in both the quantity and quality of oocytes. Menopause is reached upon exhaustion of the resting primordial follicle pool, occurring on average at 51 years of age (range 40-60 years). The mean global age at natural menopause (ANM) appears robust, suggesting a distinct genetic control. Accordingly, a strong correlation in ANM is observed between mothers and daughters. Few specific genetic determinants of ANM have been identified. Substantial efforts have been made to predict ANM by using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels. AMH serum concentrations at reproductive age predict ANM, but precision is currently limited. Early ANM is associated with early preceding fertility loss, whereas late menopause is associated with reduced morbidity and mortality later in life. Menopause affects various women's health aspects, including bone density, breast, the cardiovascular system, mood/cognitive function and sexual well-being. If the current trend of increasing human life expectancy persists, women will soon spend half their life postmenopause. Unfortunately, increased longevity does not coincide with an equal increase in years spend in good health. Future research should focus on determinants of long term health effects of ANM, and efforts to improve women's postmenopausal health and quality of life.

  20. Emotional arousal predicts intertemporal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, Karolina M; Johnson, Eli; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2016-08-01

    People generally prefer immediate rewards to rewards received after a delay, often even when the delayed reward is larger. This phenomenon is known as temporal discounting. It has been suggested that preferences for immediate rewards may be due to their being more concrete than delayed rewards. This concreteness may evoke an enhanced emotional response. Indeed, manipulating the representation of a future reward to make it more concrete has been shown to heighten the reward's subjective emotional intensity, making people more likely to choose it. Here the authors use an objective measure of arousal-pupil dilation-to investigate if emotional arousal mediates the influence of delayed reward concreteness on choice. They recorded pupil dilation responses while participants made choices between immediate and delayed rewards. They manipulated concreteness through time interval framing: delayed rewards were presented either with the date on which they would be received (e.g., "$30, May 3"; DATE condition, more concrete) or in terms of delay to receipt (e.g., "$30, 7 days; DAYS condition, less concrete). Contrary to prior work, participants were not overall more patient in the DATE condition. However, there was individual variability in response to time framing, and this variability was predicted by differences in pupil dilation between conditions. Emotional arousal increased as the subjective value of delayed rewards increased, and predicted choice of the delayed reward on each trial. This study advances our understanding of the role of emotion in temporal discounting. (PsycINFO Database Record

  1. Predictive implications of Gompertz's law

    CERN Document Server

    Richmond, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold even for ages over 100. Beyond 106 there is so far no statistical evidence available because the number of survivors is too small even in the largest nations. However assuming that Gompertz's law continues to hold beyond 106, we conclude that the mortality rate becomes equal to 1 at age 120 (meaning that there are 1,000 deaths in a population of one thousand). In other words, the upper bound of human life is near 120. The existence of this fixed-point has interesting implications. It allows us to predict the form of the relationship between death rates at age 35 and the doubling time of Gompertz's law. In order to test this prediction, we first carry out a transversal analysis for a sample of countries comprising both industrialized and developing nations. As further confirmation, we also develop a longitudinal analysis usi...

  2. Conditional replenishment using motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, D. N.; Jones, H. W., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    Conditional replenishment is an interframe video compression method that uses correlation in time to reduce video transmission rates. This method works by detecting and sending only the changing portions of the image and by having the receiver use the video data from the previous frame for the non-changing portion. The amount of compression that can be achieved through this technique depends to a large extent on the rate of change within the image, and can vary from 10 to 1 to less than 2 to 1. An additional 3 to 1 reduction in rate is obtained by the intraframe coding of data blocks using a 2-dimensional variable rate Hadamard transform coder. A further additional 2 to 1 rate reduction is achieved by using motion prediction. Motion prediction works by measuring the relative displacements of a subpicture from one frame to the next. The subpicture can then be transmitted by sending only the value of the 2-dimensional displacement. Computer simulations have demonstrated that data rates of 2 to 4 Mega-bits/second can be achieved while still retaining good fidelity in the image.

  3. Predicting educational achievement from DNA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selzam, S; Krapohl, E; von Stumm, S; O'Reilly, P F; Rimfeld, K; Kovas, Y; Dale, P S; Lee, J J; Plomin, R

    2017-01-01

    A genome-wide polygenic score (GPS), derived from a 2013 genome-wide association study (N=127,000), explained 2% of the variance in total years of education (EduYears). In a follow-up study (N=329,000), a new EduYears GPS explains up to 4%. Here, we tested the association between this latest EduYears GPS and educational achievement scores at ages 7, 12 and 16 in an independent sample of 5825 UK individuals. We found that EduYears GPS explained greater amounts of variance in educational achievement over time, up to 9% at age 16, accounting for 15% of the heritable variance. This is the strongest GPS prediction to date for quantitative behavioral traits. Individuals in the highest and lowest GPS septiles differed by a whole school grade at age 16. Furthermore, EduYears GPS was associated with general cognitive ability (~3.5%) and family socioeconomic status (~7%). There was no evidence of an interaction between EduYears GPS and family socioeconomic status on educational achievement or on general cognitive ability. These results are a harbinger of future widespread use of GPS to predict genetic risk and resilience in the social and behavioral sciences. PMID:27431296

  4. Predictive simulation of nonlinear ultrasonics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Yanfeng; Giurgiutiu, Victor

    2012-04-01

    Most of the nonlinear ultrasonic studies to date have been experimental, but few theoretical predictive studies exist, especially for Lamb wave ultrasonic. Compared with nonlinear bulk waves and Rayleigh waves, nonlinear Lamb waves for structural health monitoring become more challenging due to their multi-mode dispersive features. In this paper, predictive study of nonlinear Lamb waves is done with finite element simulation. A pitch-catch method is used to interrogate a plate with a "breathing crack" which opens and closes under tension and compression. Piezoelectric wafer active sensors (PWAS) used as transmitter and receiver are modeled with coupled field elements. The "breathing crack" is simulated via "element birth and death" technique. The ultrasonic waves generated by the transmitter PWAS propagate into the structure, interact with the "breathing crack", acquire nonlinear features, and are picked up by the receiver PWAS. The features of the wave packets at the receiver PWAS are studied and discussed. The received signal is processed with Fast Fourier Transform to show the higher harmonics nonlinear characteristics. A baseline free damage index is introduced to assess the presence and the severity of the crack. The paper finishes with summary, conclusions, and suggestions for future work.

  5. Use of Feedback in Clinical Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Harold E.

    1972-01-01

    Results indicated that predictive accuracy is greater when feedback is applied to the basis for the prediction than when applied to gut" impressions. Judges forming hypotheses were also able to learn from experience. (Author)

  6. Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ross, Suzi; Hansen, Niels Christian

    2016-01-01

    Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception The Journal of Neuroscience, 16 March 2016, 36(11): 3103-3105;......Dissociating Prediction Failure: Considerations from Music Perception The Journal of Neuroscience, 16 March 2016, 36(11): 3103-3105;...

  7. Prediction of Recovery from Coma After CPR

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... THEIR FAMILIES PREDICTION OF RECOVERY FROM COMA AFTER CPR This summary will provide you with information about ... help doctors predict poor recovery from coma after CPR. In this case, poor recovery means death, continued ...

  8. Statistical prediction of Late Miocene climate

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Fernandes, A.A.; Gupta, S.M.

    The theory of statistical prediction of paleoclimate (Imbrie and Kipp, 1971), which includes multiple regression analysis and factor analysis is reviewed. Necessary software is listed. An application to predicting palaeo oceanographic parameters...

  9. Prediction of Unsteady Transonic Aerodynamics Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — An accurate prediction of aero-elastic effects depends on an accurate prediction of the unsteady aerodynamic forces. Perhaps the most difficult speed regime is...

  10. Collective prediction based on community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yasong; Li, Taisong; Zhang, Yan; Yan, Yonghong

    2017-01-01

    Collective prediction algorithms have been used to improve performances when network structures are involved in prediction tasks. The training dataset of such tasks often contain information of content, links and labels, while the testing dataset have only content and link information. Conventional collective prediction algorithms conduct predictions based on the content of a node and the information of its direct neighbors with a base classifier. However, the information of some direct neighbor nodes may be not consistent with the target one. In addition, the information of indirect neighbors can be helpful when that of direct neighbors is scant. In this paper, instead of using information of direct neighbors, we propose to apply community structures in networks to prediction tasks. A community detection method is aggregated into the collective prediction process to improve prediction performance. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms a number of standard prediction algorithms specially under conditions that labeled training dataset are limited.

  11. Protein Residue Contacts and Prediction Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Badri

    2016-01-01

    In the field of computational structural proteomics, contact predictions have shown new prospects of solving the longstanding problem of ab initio protein structure prediction. In the last few years, application of deep learning algorithms and availability of large protein sequence databases, combined with improvement in methods that derive contacts from multiple sequence alignments, have shown a huge increase in the precision of contact prediction. In addition, these predicted contacts have also been used to build three-dimensional models from scratch. In this chapter, we briefly discuss many elements of protein residue–residue contacts and the methods available for prediction, focusing on a state-of-the-art contact prediction tool, DNcon. Illustrating with a case study, we describe how DNcon can be used to make ab initio contact predictions for a given protein sequence and discuss how the predicted contacts may be analyzed and evaluated. PMID:27115648

  12. The Use of Linear Programming for Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnittjer, Carl J.

    The purpose of the study was to develop a linear programming model to be used for prediction, test the accuracy of the predictions, and compare the accuracy with that produced by curvilinear multiple regression analysis. (Author)

  13. Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities

    OpenAIRE

    Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric

    2006-01-01

    While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market prices are usuall...

  14. ADAPTIVE GENERALIZED PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF SWITCHED SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yi-jing; WANG Long

    2005-01-01

    The problem of adaptive generalized predictive control which consists of output prediction errors for a class of switched systems is studied. The switching law is determined by the output predictive errors of a finite number of subsystems. For the single subsystem and multiple subsystems cases, it is proved that the given direct algorithm of generalized predictive control guarantees the global convergence of the system. This algorithm overcomes the inherent drawbacks of the slow convergence and large transient errors for the conventional adaptive control.

  15. Predicting Electrochromic Smart Window Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Degerman Engfeldt, Johnny

    2012-07-01

    The building sector is one of the largest consumers of energy, where the cooling of buildings accounts for a large portion of the total energy consumption. Electrochromic (EC) smart windows have a great potential for increasing indoor comfort and saving large amounts of energy for buildings. An EC device can be viewed as a thin-film electrical battery whose charging state is manifested in optical absorption, i.e. the optical absorption increases with increased state-of-charge (SOC) and decreases with decreased state-of-charge. It is the EC technology's unique ability to control the absorption (transmittance) of solar energy and visible light in windows with small energy effort that can reduce buildings' cooling needs. Today, the EC technology is used to produce small windows and car rearview mirrors, and to reach the construction market it is crucial to be able to produce large area EC devices with satisfactory performance. A challenge with up-scaling is to design the EC device system with a rapid and uniform coloration (charging) and bleaching (discharging). In addition, up-scaling the EC technology is a large economic risk due to its expensive production equipment, thus making the choice of EC material and system extremely critical. Although this is a well-known issue, little work has been done to address and solve these problems. This thesis introduces a cost-efficient methodology, validated with experimental data, capable of predicting and optimizing EC device systems' performance in large area applications, such as EC smart windows. This methodology consists of an experimental set-up, experimental procedures and a two dimensional current distribution model. The experimental set-up, based on camera vision, is used in performing experimental procedures to develop and validate the model and methodology. The two-dimensional current distribution model takes secondary current distribution with charge transfer resistance, ohmic and time

  16. Predicting casualties implied by TIPs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Wyss, M.; Wyss, B. M.

    2009-12-01

    When an earthquake is predicted, forecast, or expected with a higher than normal probability, losses are implied. We estimated the casualties (fatalities plus injured) that should be expected if earthquakes in TIPs (locations of Temporarily Increased Probability of earthquakes) defined by Kossobokov et al. (2009) should occur. We classified the predictions of losses into the categories red (more than 400 fatalities or more than 1,000 injured), yellow (between 100 and 400 fatalities), green (fewer than 100 fatalities), and gray (undetermined). TIPs in Central Chile, the Philippines, Papua, and Taiwan are in the red class, TIPs in Southern Sumatra, Nicaragua, Vanatu, and Honshu in the yellow class, and TIPs in Tonga, Loyalty Islands, Vanatu, S. Sandwich Islands, Banda Sea, and the Kuriles, are classified as green. TIPs where the losses depend moderately on the assumed point of major energy release were classified as yellow; TIPs such as in the Talaud Islands and in Tonga, where the losses depend very strongly on the location of the epicenter, were classified as gray. The accuracy of loss estimates after earthquakes with known hypocenter and magnitude are affected by uncertainties in transmission and soil properties, the composition of the building stock, the population present, and the method by which the numbers of casualties are calculated. In the case of TIPs, uncertainties in magnitude and location are added, thus we calculate losses for a range of these two parameters. Therefore, our calculations can only be considered order of magnitude estimates. Nevertheless, our predictions can come to within a factor of two of the observed numbers, as in the case of the M7.6 earthquake of October 2005 in Pakistan that resulted in 85,000 fatalities (Wyss, 2005). In subduction zones, the geometrical relationship between the earthquake source capable of a great earthquake and the population is clear because there is only one major fault plane available, thus the epicentral

  17. Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System (HEPS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thielen-Del Pozo, J.; Schaake, J.; Martin, E.; Pailleux, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2010-09-01

    Flood forecasting systems form a key part of ‘preparedness' strategies for disastrous floods and provide hydrological services, civil protection authorities and the public with information of upcoming events. Provided the warning leadtime is sufficiently long, adequate preparatory actions can be taken to efficiently reduce the impacts of the flooding. Following on the success of the use of ensembles for weather forecasting, the hydrological community now moves increasingly towards Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for improved flood forecasting using operationally available NWP products as inputs. However, these products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared to hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the non-linear hydrological filters. Therefore, a better understanding on how best to produce, communicate and use hydrologic ensemble forecasts in hydrological short-, medium- und long term prediction of hydrological processes is necessary. The "Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment" (HEPEX), is an international initiative consisting of hydrologists, meteorologist and end-users to advance probabilistic hydrologic forecast techniques for flood, drought and water management applications. Different aspects of the hydrological ensemble processor are being addressed including • Production of useful meteorological products relevant for hydrological applications, ranging from nowcasting products to seasonal forecasts. The importance of hindcasts that are consistent with the operational weather forecasts will be discussed to support bias correction and downscaling, statistically meaningful verification of HEPS, and the development and testing of operating rules; • Need for downscaling and post-processing of weather ensembles to reduce bias before entering hydrological applications; • Hydrological model and parameter uncertainty and how to correct and

  18. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as wel

  19. Prediction of twin-arginine signal peptides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jannick Dyrløv; Nielsen, Henrik; Widdick, D.;

    2005-01-01

    peptides and 84% of the annotated cleavage sites of these Tat signal peptides were correctly predicted. This method generates far less false positive predictions on various datasets than using simple pattern matching. Moreover, on the same datasets TatP generates less false positive predictions than...

  20. NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Balicki

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

  1. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as

  2. Predictive control of speededness in adaptive testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Linden, Willem J.

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive testing method is presented that controls the speededness of a test using predictions of the test takers' response times on the candidate items in the pool. Two different types of predictions are investigated: posterior predictions given the actual response times on the items already

  3. MHC Class II epitope predictive algorithms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten; Lund, Ole; Buus, S

    2010-01-01

    in the predictions. All attempts to make ab initio predictions based on protein structure have failed to reach predictive performances similar to those that can be obtained by data-driven methods. Thousands of different MHC-II alleles exist in humans. Recently developed pan-specific methods have been able to make...

  4. Using "Prediction" to Promote Mathematical Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ok-Kyeong; Kasmer, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    This article introduces prediction as a useful tool to promote mathematical reasoning. First, the article addresses prediction expectations in state standards and gives examples. It also provides a classroom example and activities to illustrate what prediction can look like and how it can serve as a building block for the development of students'…

  5. Efficient marker data utilization in genomic prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Edriss, Vahid

    Genomic prediction is a novel method to recognize the best animals for breeding. The aim of this PhD is to improve the accuracy of genomic prediction in dairy cattle by effeiently utilizing marker data. The thesis focuses on three aspects for improving the genomc prediction, which are: criteria...

  6. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...

  7. Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as wel

  8. Universal Prior Prediction for Communication

    CERN Document Server

    Lomnitz, Yuval

    2011-01-01

    We consider the problem of communicating over an unknown and arbitrarily varying channel, using feedback. This paper focuses on the problem of determining the input behavior, or more specifically, a prior which is used to randomly generate a codebook. We pose the problem of setting the prior as a universal sequential prediction problem using information theoretic abstractions of the communication channel. For the case where the channel is block-wise constant, we show it is possible to asymptotically approach the best rate that can be attained by any system using a fixed prior. For the case where the channel may change on each symbol, we combine a rateless coding scheme with a prior predictor and asymptotically approach the capacity of the average channel universally for every sequence of channels.

  9. Prospects for Predicting Cycle 24

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Arnab Rai Choudhuri

    2008-03-01

    Although we have reliable data of solar polar fields only from the mid-1970s, it seems that the polar field at a minimum is well correlated with the next cycle, but the strength of the cycle is not correlated with the polar field produced at its end. We explain this by suggesting that the Babcock–Leighton mechanism of poloidal field generation from tilted active regions involves randomness, whereas the other aspects of the dynamo process are more ordered. To model actual cycles, we have to ‘correct’ our theoretical dynamo model by ‘feeding’ information about the polar field at the minima. Following this process, we find that our model fits the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21–23 reasonably well and predicts that cycle 24 will be the weakest in a century.

  10. Pretest Predictions for Ventilation Tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Y. Sun; H. Yang; H.N. Kalia

    2007-01-17

    The objective of this calculation is to predict the temperatures of the ventilating air, waste package surface, concrete pipe walls, and insulation that will be developed during the ventilation tests involving various test conditions. The results will be used as input to the following three areas: (1) Decisions regarding testing set-up and performance. (2) Assessing how best to scale the test phenomena measured. (3) Validating numerical approach for modeling continuous ventilation. The scope of the calculation is to identify the physical mechanisms and parameters related to thermal response in the ventilation tests, and develop and describe numerical methods that can be used to calculate the effects of continuous ventilation. Sensitivity studies to assess the impact of variation of linear power densities (linear heat loads) and ventilation air flow rates are included. The calculation is limited to thermal effect only.

  11. Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

    CERN Multimedia

    Françoise Benz

    2005-01-01

    2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

  12. V1500 Cygni - A prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katz, J.I. (Washington University, Saint Louis, MO (USA))

    1991-06-01

    Scmidt and Stockman (1991) have discovered that V1500 Cygni (Nova Cygni 1975) resembles an AM Herculis star, but with the degenerate dwarf rotating 1.8 percent faster than synchronously, and relaxing toward synchronism on a time scale of less than 200 yr. The inferred spin-down torque is unexpectedly large. It is suggested that this torque results from the interaction of the degenerate star's magnetosphere with a radiation-driven wind from the secondary, and a rapid decay of the spin-down torque, which will soon be observable is predicted. Analogous hydrodynamic torques may also phase-lock the synchronous AM Herculis stars. Study of these systems may help understand torques on neutron stars. 9 refs.

  13. The Predictiveness of Achievement Goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huy P. Phan

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Using the Revised Achievement Goal Questionnaire (AGQ-R (Elliot & Murayama, 2008, we explored first-year university students’ achievement goal orientations on the premise of the 2 × 2 model. Similar to recent studies (Elliot & Murayama, 2008; Elliot & Thrash, 2010, we conceptualized a model that included both antecedent (i.e., enactive learning experience and consequence (i.e., intrinsic motivation and academic achievement of achievement goals. Two hundred seventy-seven university students (151 women, 126 men participated in the study. Structural equation modeling procedures yielded evidence that showed the predictive effects of enactive learning experience and mastery goals on intrinsic motivation. Academic achievement was influenced intrinsic motivation, performance-approach goals, and enactive learning experience. Enactive learning experience also served as an antecedent of the four achievement goal types. On the whole, evidence obtained supports the AGQ-R and contributes, theoretically, to 2 × 2 model.

  14. Methods of rock burst prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Genkin, V.A.; Minin, Yu.Ya.; Morozov, G.D.; Proskuryakov, V.M.; Cmirnov, V.A.

    1979-07-01

    Some methods of predicting rock bursts in underground coal and iron ore mines are evaluated: using BP-18 indenters and the MGD indenter with automatic recording; seismic method consisting in measuring the speed of shock waves travelling through various layers (apparatus SB-20 is designed for use in coal mines); electrometric method (measuring resistance between two electrodes when electric currents flow through coal and rocks). The design of the AEhSSh-1 measuring instrument, used in the electrometric method in coal mines is also described. Each of the methods is described and mathematical fomulae used as their theoretical basis are presented. The calculating process is explained and brief information on the design and use of the measuring instrument is given. The methods are evaluated from the viewpoint of precision. (In Russian)

  15. Nutritional prediction of pressure ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breslow, R A; Bergstrom, N

    1994-11-01

    This article focuses on nutritional risk factors that predict the development of pressure ulcers in hospital and nursing home patients. Cross-sectional studies associate inadequate energy and protein intake; underweight; low triceps skinfold measurement; and low serum albumin, low serum cholesterol, and low hemoglobin levels with pressure ulcers. Prospective studies identify inadequate energy and protein intake, a poor score on the Braden scale (a risk assessment instrument that includes a nutrition component), and possibly low serum albumin level as risk factors for developing a pressure ulcer. Nutritionists should provide a high-energy, high-protein diet for patients at risk of development of pressure ulcers to improve their dietary intake and nutritional status.

  16. Rhythmic complexity and predictive coding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vuust, Peter; Witek, Maria A G

    2014-01-01

    Musical rhythm, consisting of apparently abstract intervals of accented temporal events,has a remarkable capacity to move our minds and bodies. How does the cognitive systemenable our experiences of rhythmically complex music? In this paper, we describe somecommon forms of rhythmic complexity...... in music and propose the theory of predictivecoding (PC) as a framework for understanding how rhythm and rhythmic complexit y areprocessed in the brain. We also consider why we feel so compelled by rhythmic tensionin music. First, we consider theories of rhythm and meter perception, which...... ofmusic (“meter”). Finally, we review empirical studies of the neural and behavioral effects ofsyncopation, polyrhythm and groove, and propose how these studies can be seen as specialcases of the PC theory.We argue that musical rhythm exploits the brain’s general principlesof prediction and propose...

  17. PEMS. Advanced predictive emission monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandvig Nielsen, J.

    2010-07-15

    In the project PEMS have been developed for boilers, internal combustion engines and gas turbines. The PEMS models have been developed using two principles: The one called ''first principles'' is based on thermo-kinetic modeling of the NO{sub x}-formation by modeling conditions (like temperature, pressure and residence time) in the reaction zones. The other one is data driven using artificial neural network (ANN) and includes no physical properties and no thermo-kinetic formulation. Models of first principles have been developed for gas turbines and gas engines. Data driven models have been developed for gas turbines, gas engines and boilers. The models have been tested on data from sites located in Denmark and the Middle East. Weel and Sandvig has conducted the on-site emission measurements used for development and testing the PEMS models. For gas turbines, both the ''first principles'' and the data driven models have performed excellent considering the ability to reproduce the emission levels of NO{sub x} according to the input variables used for calibration. Data driven models for boilers and gas engines have performed excellent as well. The rather comprehensive first principle model, developed for gas engines, did not perform as well in the prediction of NO{sub x}. Possible a more complex model formulation is required for internal combustion engines. In general, both model types have been validated on data extracted from the data set used for calibration. The data for validation have been selected randomly as individual samplings, and is scattered over the entire measuring campaign. For one natural gas engine a secondary measuring campaign was conducted half a year later than the campaign used for training the data driven model. In the meantime, this engine had been through a refurbishment that included new pistons, piston rings and cylinder linings and cleaning of the cylinder heads. Despite the refurbishment, the

  18. PEMS. Advanced predictive emission monitoring

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sandvig Nielsen, J.

    2010-07-15

    In the project PEMS have been developed for boilers, internal combustion engines and gas turbines. The PEMS models have been developed using two principles: The one called ''first principles'' is based on thermo-kinetic modeling of the NO{sub x}-formation by modeling conditions (like temperature, pressure and residence time) in the reaction zones. The other one is data driven using artificial neural network (ANN) and includes no physical properties and no thermo-kinetic formulation. Models of first principles have been developed for gas turbines and gas engines. Data driven models have been developed for gas turbines, gas engines and boilers. The models have been tested on data from sites located in Denmark and the Middle East. Weel and Sandvig has conducted the on-site emission measurements used for development and testing the PEMS models. For gas turbines, both the ''first principles'' and the data driven models have performed excellent considering the ability to reproduce the emission levels of NO{sub x} according to the input variables used for calibration. Data driven models for boilers and gas engines have performed excellent as well. The rather comprehensive first principle model, developed for gas engines, did not perform as well in the prediction of NO{sub x}. Possible a more complex model formulation is required for internal combustion engines. In general, both model types have been validated on data extracted from the data set used for calibration. The data for validation have been selected randomly as individual samplings, and is scattered over the entire measuring campaign. For one natural gas engine a secondary measuring campaign was conducted half a year later than the campaign used for training the data driven model. In the meantime, this engine had been through a refurbishment that included new pistons, piston rings and cylinder linings and cleaning of the cylinder heads. Despite the refurbishment, the

  19. Protein secondary structure: category assignment and predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Claus A.; Bohr, Henrik; Brunak, Søren

    2001-01-01

    In the last decade, the prediction of protein secondary structure has been optimized using essentially one and the same assignment scheme known as DSSP. We present here a different scheme, which is more predictable. This scheme predicts directly the hydrogen bonds, which stabilize the secondary...... structures. Single sequence prediction of the new three category assignment gives an overall prediction improvement of 3.1% and 5.1%, compared to the DSSP assignment and schemes where the helix category consists of a-helix and 3(10)-helix, respectively. These results were achieved using a standard feed...

  20. A Prospect of Earthquake Prediction Research

    CERN Document Server

    Ogata, Yosihiko

    2013-01-01

    Earthquakes occur because of abrupt slips on faults due to accumulated stress in the Earth's crust. Because most of these faults and their mechanisms are not readily apparent, deterministic earthquake prediction is difficult. For effective prediction, complex conditions and uncertain elements must be considered, which necessitates stochastic prediction. In particular, a large amount of uncertainty lies in identifying whether abnormal phenomena are precursors to large earthquakes, as well as in assigning urgency to the earthquake. Any discovery of potentially useful information for earthquake prediction is incomplete unless quantitative modeling of risk is considered. Therefore, this manuscript describes the prospect of earthquake predictability research to realize practical operational forecasting in the near future.

  1. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    is a realization of a continuous-discrete multivariate stochastic transfer function model. The proposed prediction error-methods are demonstrated for a SISO system parameterized by the transfer functions with time delays of a continuous-discrete-time linear stochastic system. The simulations for this case suggest......Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which...... computational resources. The identification method is suitable for predictive control....

  2. The 2007 TAC SCM Prediction Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pardoe, David; Stone, Peter

    The TAC SCM Prediction Challenge presents an opportunity for agents designed for the full TAC SCM game to compete solely on their ability to make predictions. Participants are presented with situations from actual TAC SCM games and are evaluated on their prediction accuracy in four categories: current and future computer prices, and current and future component prices. This paper introduces the Prediction Challenge and presents the results from 2007 along with an analysis of how the predictions of the participants compare to each other.

  3. Adaptive nonlinear prediction of ocean reverberation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAN Weiming; LI Fenghua

    2009-01-01

    An adaptive nonlinear prediction algorithm is proposed to predict ocean reverber-ation based on the phase space reconstruction of nonlinear dynamic system. The prediction algorithm is tested by experimental reverberation data measured in two areas, and the one-step forward prediction results are in good agreement with the experimental data. If the errors between the predicted and experimental data are chosen as the variable to detect the target in the reverberation series, the reverberation is suppressed and the signal-to-reverberation ratio is improved.

  4. Link prediction via generalized coupled tensor factorisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ermiş, Beyza; Evrim, Acar Ataman; Taylan Cemgil, A.

    2012-01-01

    This study deals with the missing link prediction problem: the problem of predicting the existence of missing connections between entities of interest. We address link prediction using coupled analysis of relational datasets represented as heterogeneous data, i.e., datasets in the form of matrices...... different loss functions. Numerical experiments demonstrate that joint analysis of data from multiple sources via coupled factorisation improves the link prediction performance and the selection of right loss function and tensor model is crucial for accurately predicting missing links....

  5. Monthly Extended Predicting Experiments with Nonlinear Regional Prediction. Part Ⅱ: Improvement of Wave Component Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Bomin; JI Liren; YANG Peicai; ZHANG Daomin

    2006-01-01

    Based on Chen et al. (2006), the scheme of the combination of the pentad-mean zonal height departure nonlinear prediction with the T42L9 model prediction was designed, in which the pentad zonal heights at all the 12-initial-value-input isobar levels from 50 hPa to 1000 hPa except 200, 300, 500, and 700 hPa were derived from nonlinear forecasts of the four levels by means of a good correlation between neighboring levels.Then the above pentad zonal heights at 12 isobar-levels were transformed to the spectrum coefficients of the temperature at each integration step of T42L9 model. At last, the nudging was made. On account of a variety of error accumulation, the pentad zonal components of the monthly height at isobar levels output by T42L9 model were replaced by the corresponding nonlinear results once more when integration was over.Multiple case experiments showed that such combination of two kinds of prediction made an improvement in the wave component as a result of wave-flow nonlinear interaction while reducing the systematical forecast errors. Namely the monthly-mean height anomaly correlation coefficients over the high- and mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, over the Southern Hemisphere and over the globe increased respectively from 0.249 to 0.347, from 0.286 to 0.387, and from 0.343 to 0.414 (relative changes of 31.5%, 41.0%, and 18.3%).The monthly-mean root-mean-square error (RMSE) of T42L9 model over the three areas was considerably decreased, the relative change over the globe reached 44.2%. The monthly-mean anomaly correlation coefficients of wave 4-9 over the areas were up to 0.392, 0.200, and 0.295, with the relative change of 53.8%, 94.1%,and 61.2%, and correspondingly their RMSEs were decreased respectively with the rate of 8.5%, 6.3%, and 8.1%. At the same time the monthly-mean pattern of parts of cases were presented better.

  6. An Introduction to Artificial Prediction Markets

    CERN Document Server

    Barbu, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of spec...

  7. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    CERN Document Server

    Sinatra, Roberta

    2014-01-01

    Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are to a large extent predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two data sets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can to some extent be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions which contain information to best predict an individual's subsequent action are negative,...

  8. Evolution of property predictability during conceptual design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salonen, Mikko; Hansen, Claus Thorp; Perttula, Matti

    2005-01-01

    A product is designed with the purpose of possessing certain properties, which are prescribed as requirements in the design specification. This paper studies the evolution of property predictability during the early phases of design in a case study context. By the term property predictability, we...... refer to the designers’ confidence in predicting product properties based on the available information. In the case study, with use of the produced design models at four different stages of concept concretisation, the designers evaluated their confidence in predicting product properties related...... to the requirements set for the task. As a result, we identified three different patterns of property predictability behaviour. These patterns consist of properties of which predictability is relatively high throughout the early phases of the design process, properties of which predictability shows a high increase...

  9. The predictability of consumer visitation patterns

    CERN Document Server

    Krumme, Coco; Cebrián, Manuel; Alex,; Pentland,; Moro, Esteban; 10.1038/srep01645

    2013-01-01

    We consider hundreds of thousands of individual economic transactions to ask: how predictable are consumers in their merchant visitation patterns? Our results suggest that, in the long-run, much of our seemingly elective activity is actually highly predictable. Notwithstanding a wide range of individual preferences, shoppers share regularities in how they visit merchant locations over time. Yet while aggregate behavior is largely predictable, the interleaving of shopping events introduces important stochastic elements at short time scales. These short- and long-scale patterns suggest a theoretical upper bound on predictability, and describe the accuracy of a Markov model in predicting a person's next location. We incorporate population-level transition probabilities in the predictive models, and find that in many cases these improve accuracy. While our results point to the elusiveness of precise predictions about where a person will go next, they suggest the existence, at large time-scales, of regularities ac...

  10. Predicting Volleyball Serve-Reception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulo, Ana; Zaal, Frank T. J. M.; Fonseca, Sofia; Araújo, Duarte

    2016-01-01

    Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver's actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four high-level volleyball players received jump-float serves from four servers in two reception zones—zone 1 and 5. The ball and the receiver's head were tracked with two video cameras, allowing 3D world-coordinates reconstruction. Logistic-regression models were used to predict the type of pass used (overhand or underhand) and serve-reception efficacy (error, out, or effective) from variables related with the serve kinematics and related with the receiver's on-court positioning and movement. Receivers' initial position was different when in zone 1 and 5. This influenced the serve-related variables as well as the type of pass used. Strong predictors of using an underhand rather than overhand pass were higher ball contact of the server, reception in zone 1, receiver's initial position more to the back of the court and backward receiver movement. Receiver's larger longitudinal displacements and an initial position more to the back of the court had a strong relationship with the decreasing of the serve-reception efficacy. Receivers' positioning and movement were the factors with the largest impact on the type of pass used and the efficacy of the reception. Reception zone affected the variance in the ball's kinematics (with the exception of the ball's lateral displacement), as well as in the receivers' positioning (distances from the net and from the target). Also the reception zone was associated with the type of pass used by the receiver but not with reception efficacy. Given volleyball's rotation rule, the receiver needs to master receiving in the different reception zones; he/she needs to adapt to the diverse constraints of each zone to maintain performance efficacy. Thus

  11. About possibilities of CMEs prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheyner, Olga

    Sufficiently long time there were examined in essence the effects of the solar proton flares influence on the earth. Recent solar researches lead to the concept of general approach to solar active events: CMEs are global phenomenon of solar activity and the analysis of it includes entire process of energy release as strictly the solar flare with its manifestations in all ranges of radiation (electromagnetic and corpuscular) as entire spectrum of the associated dynamic phenomena. Moreover the geoefficiency of CMEs is not examined sufficient. This access intends the development of approach to CMEs forecast. In this work the possibilities of the prediction of the evidence of CMEs formation and initial propagation are examined. They are based on effects observed in solar sporadic radio emission. To our mind, such prediction is possible because of complex events observed in solar microwave emission on the time interval from 2-3 days till the point of CMEs registration on the coronagraphs. That sort of effects consists of: a) an increase of the long-period (T > 20 min) fluctuations in 2-3 days prior to the formation of the Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) that exceeds in 2 times calm periods [1]; b) appearance and maintenance of the narrow-band (∆f 200-400 MHz) spectral special features in microwave emission intensity within 5-8-hours prior to the point of CMEs registration [2]; c) presence of radio precursors in 1-2 hours prior to CMEs registration, that possess broadband, directivity; their duration depends on the morphological type of recorded CMEs [3]; d) presence of periodic components with the periods in the range of 6-22 seconds in solar microwave emission directly preceded CMEs registration (less than the half-hour) [1]. Similar manifestations of solar activity in the microwave emission, preceding CMEs, can find explanations within the framework of the existing models and ideas about the reflection in the radio emission of the phenomena of the dynamics of the

  12. Predicting Volleyball Serve-reception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paulo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Serve and serve-reception performance have predicted success in volleyball. Given the impact of serve-reception on the game, we aimed at understanding what it is in the serve and receiver’s actions that determines the selection of the type of pass used in serve-reception and its efficacy. Four high-level players received jump-float serves from four servers in two reception zones – zone 1 and 5. The ball and the receiver’s head were tracked with two video cameras, allowing 3D world-coordinates reconstruction. Logistic-regression models were used to predict the type of pass used (overhand or underhand and serve-reception efficacy (error, out, or effective from variables related with the serve kinematics and related with the receiver’s on-court positioning and movement. Receivers’ initial position was different when in zone 1 and 5. This influenced the serve-related variables as well as the type of pass used. Strong predictors of using an underhand rather than overhand pass were higher ball contact of the server, reception in zone 1, receiver’s initial position more to the back of the court and backward receiver movement. Receiver’s larger longitudinal displacements and an initial position more to the back of the court had a strong relationship with the decreasing of the serve-reception efficacy. Receivers’ positioning and movement were the factors with the largest impact on the type of pass used and the efficacy of the reception. Reception zone affected the variance in the ball’s kinematics (with the exception of the ball’s lateral displacement, as well as in the receivers’ positioning (distances from the net and from the target. Also the reception zone was associated with the type of pass used by the receiver but not with reception efficacy. Given volleyball’s rotation rule, the receiver needs to master receiving in the different reception zones; he/she needs to adapt to the diverse constraints of each zone to maintain

  13. Predicting Electronic Failure from Smoke

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanaka, T.J.

    1999-01-15

    Smoke can cause electronic equipment to fail through increased leakage currents and shorts. Sandia National Laboratories is studying the increased leakage currents caused by smoke with varying characteristics. The objective is to develop models to predict the failure of electronic equipment exposed to smoke. This requires the collection of data on the conductivity of smoke and knowledge of critical electrical systems that control high-consequence operations. We have found that conductivity is a function of the type of fuel, how it is burned, and smoke density. Video recordings of highly biased dc circuits exposed in a test chamber show that during a fire, smoke is attracted to high voltages and can build fragile carbon bridges that conduct leakage currents. The movement of air breaks the bridges, so the conductivity decreases after the fire is extinguished and the test chamber is vented. During the fire, however, electronic equipment may not operate correctly, leading to problems for critical operations dependent on electronic control. The potential for electronic failure is highly dependent on the type of electrical circuit, and Sandia National Laboratories plans to include electrical circuit modeling in the failure models.

  14. Flavor effects on leptogenesis predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Blanchet, S; Bari, Pasquale Di; Blanchet, Steve

    2006-01-01

    Flavor effects in leptogenesis reduce the region of the see-saw parameter space where the final predictions do not depend on the initial conditions, the strong wash-out regime. In this case we show that the lowest bounds holding on the lightest right-handed (RH) neutrino mass and on the reheating temperature for hierarchical heavy neutrinos, do not get relaxed compared to the usual ones in the one-flavor approximation, M_1 (T_reh) \\gtrsim 3 (1.5) x 10^9 GeV. Flavor effects can however relax down to these minimal values the lower bounds holding for fixed large values of the decay parameter K_1. We discuss a relevant definite example showing that, when the known information on the neutrino mixing matrix is employed, the lower bounds for K_1 \\gg 10, are relaxed by a factor 2-3 for light hierarchical neutrinos, without any dependence on \\theta_13 and on possible phases. On the other hand, going beyond the limit of light hierarchical neutrinos and taking into account Majorana phases, the lower bounds can be relaxe...

  15. Holistic processing predicts face recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richler, Jennifer J; Cheung, Olivia S; Gauthier, Isabel

    2011-04-01

    The concept of holistic processing is a cornerstone of face-recognition research. In the study reported here, we demonstrated that holistic processing predicts face-recognition abilities on the Cambridge Face Memory Test and on a perceptual face-identification task. Our findings validate a large body of work that relies on the assumption that holistic processing is related to face recognition. These findings also reconcile the study of face recognition with the perceptual-expertise work it inspired; such work links holistic processing of objects with people's ability to individuate them. Our results differ from those of a recent study showing no link between holistic processing and face recognition. This discrepancy can be attributed to the use in prior research of a popular but flawed measure of holistic processing. Our findings salvage the central role of holistic processing in face recognition and cast doubt on a subset of the face-perception literature that relies on a problematic measure of holistic processing.

  16. Prediction of violent mechanochemical processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, R.A.; Anderson, M.U.; Holman, G.T.; Baer, M.R.

    1997-01-01

    Energetic materials, such as high explosives, propellants and ballotechnics, are widely used as energy sources in the design of numerous devices, components and processes. Although most energetic materials are selected for safe operation, their high energy densities have the potential for inadvertent initiation and subsequent powerful energy transformations. This potential for damage or injury places a heavy burden on careful analysis of safety issues as part of the design process. As a result, considerable effort has been devoted to empirical testing of initiation conditions, and development of scientific models of initiation processes that have been incorporated into computer models for numerical simulation of initiation of reaction. Nevertheless, in many cases, there is still only rudimentary understanding of the processes of initiation. Mechanochemical processes are perhaps the least understood of the various excitation mechanisms. In these energy transformation processes mechanical stimuli lead directly to initiation and substantial reaction under conditions not thought to be capable of reaction. There are no established scientific models of the initiation of mechanochemical reactions in energetic materials. Mechanochemical reactions can be initiated by enhanced solid state chemical reactivity, changes in reactant configuration, and localization of initiation energy. Such solid state reactions are difficult to understand, either empirically or scientifically, as they are inherently nonequilibrium processes; scientific models currently used assume equilibrium thermochemical conditions and materials behaviors. The present work was undertaken as a first step in developing a scientific basis for prediction of the initiation of mechanochemical processes in high energy density solids.

  17. Time estimation predicts mathematical intelligence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Kramer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Performing mental subtractions affects time (duration estimates, and making time estimates disrupts mental subtractions. This interaction has been attributed to the concurrent involvement of time estimation and arithmetic with general intelligence and working memory. Given the extant evidence of a relationship between time and number, here we test the stronger hypothesis that time estimation correlates specifically with mathematical intelligence, and not with general intelligence or working-memory capacity. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Participants performed a (prospective time estimation experiment, completed several subtests of the WAIS intelligence test, and self-rated their mathematical skill. For five different durations, we found that time estimation correlated with both arithmetic ability and self-rated mathematical skill. Controlling for non-mathematical intelligence (including working memory capacity did not change the results. Conversely, correlations between time estimation and non-mathematical intelligence either were nonsignificant, or disappeared after controlling for mathematical intelligence. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that time estimation specifically predicts mathematical intelligence. On the basis of the relevant literature, we furthermore conclude that the relationship between time estimation and mathematical intelligence is likely due to a common reliance on spatial ability.

  18. Predictive properties of visual adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chopin, Adrien; Mamassian, Pascal

    2012-04-10

    What humans perceive depends in part on what they have previously experienced. After repeated exposure to one stimulus, adaptation takes place in the form of a negative correlation between the current percept and the last displayed stimuli. Previous work has shown that this negative dependence can extend to a few minutes in the past, but the precise extent and nature of the dependence in vision is still unknown. In two experiments based on orientation judgments, we reveal a positive dependence of a visual percept with stimuli presented remotely in the past, unexpectedly and in contrast to what is known for the recent past. Previous theories of adaptation have postulated that the visual system attempts to calibrate itself relative to an ideal norm or to the recent past. We propose instead that the remote past is used to estimate the world's statistics and that this estimate becomes the reference. According to this new framework, adaptation is predictive: the most likely forthcoming percept is the one that helps the statistics of the most recent percepts match that of the remote past.

  19. Meditation Experience Predicts Introspective Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Kieran C. R.; Zakarauskas, Pierre; Dixon, Matt; Ellamil, Melissa; Thompson, Evan; Christoff, Kalina

    2012-01-01

    The accuracy of subjective reports, especially those involving introspection of one's own internal processes, remains unclear, and research has demonstrated large individual differences in introspective accuracy. It has been hypothesized that introspective accuracy may be heightened in persons who engage in meditation practices, due to the highly introspective nature of such practices. We undertook a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis, examining introspective accuracy in a cross-section of meditation practitioners (1–15,000 hrs experience). Introspective accuracy was assessed by comparing subjective reports of tactile sensitivity for each of 20 body regions during a ‘body-scanning’ meditation with averaged, objective measures of tactile sensitivity (mean size of body representation area in primary somatosensory cortex; two-point discrimination threshold) as reported in prior research. Expert meditators showed significantly better introspective accuracy than novices; overall meditation experience also significantly predicted individual introspective accuracy. These results suggest that long-term meditators provide more accurate introspective reports than novices. PMID:23049790

  20. Color prediction in textile application

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Lucia, Maurizio; Buonopane, Massimo

    2004-09-01

    Nowadays production systems of fancy yarns for knits allow the creation of extremely complex products in which many effects are obtained by means of color alteration. Current production technique consists in defining type and quantity of fibers by making preliminary samples. This samples are then compared with a reference one. This comparison is based on operator experience. Many samples are required in order to achieve a sample similar to the reference one. This work requires time and then additional costs for a textile manufacturer. In addition, the methodology is subjective. Nowadays, spectrophotometers are the only devices that seem to be able to provide objective indications. They are based on a spectral analysis of the light reflected by the knit material. In this paper the study of a new method for color evaluation of a mix of wool fibers with different colors is presented. First of all fiber characterization were carried out through scattering and absorption coefficients using the Kubelka-Munk theory. Then the estimated color was compared with a reference item, in order to define conformity by means of objective parameters. Finally, theoretical characterization was compared with the measured quantity. This allowed estimation of prediction quality.

  1. Predictive testing for Huntington's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tibben, Aad

    2007-04-30

    Worldwide, predictive testing for Huntington's disease has become an accepted clinical application that has allowed many individuals from HD-families to proceed with their life without the uncertainty of being at risk. International guidelines have extensively contributed to establishing counselling programmes of high quality, and have served as a model for other genetic disorders. Psychological follow-up studies have increased the insight into the far-reaching impact of test results for all individuals involved. Although the guidelines have served as a useful frame of reference, clinical experience has shown the importance of a case-by-case approach to do justice to the specific needs of the individual test candidate. Issues such as ambiguous test results, lack of awareness in a test candidate of early signs of the disease, non-compliance to the test protocol, or the test candidate's need for information on the relationship between age at onset and CAG-repeat require careful consideration. Receiving a test result is only one of the transition points in the life of an individual at risk; such result needs to be valued from a life-cycle perspective.

  2. [Congenital malformations: care or predict?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pellerin, D

    1993-02-01

    Spectacular scientific and technological advances made in the last decade have had such a profound impact on biological and medical science that they have dramatically modified the citizen's behaviour concerning life events, especially congenital malformation. Prenatal diagnosis (PND) leads to do the diagnosis of almost all fetal internal and external malformations. The matter is, not only to care, but, first to know. The positive efficiency of PND is sometimes preparing the best cares and, of course, to recognize many severe anomalies postnatally diagnosed before PND time, and carrying wellknown 50% rate mortality by neo-natal surgery. Congenital diaphragmatic hernia is pointed out as a good example of it, and of hopes and disappointing in utero foetal surgery. New protocol of assessment of fetal renal function is an appreciated method to do prognosis of some fetal uropathies before late in utero drainage, for a short time waiting for necessary maturation of lungs allowing premature delivery. The possibility to do PND of small and benign malformation leads to ask for the question of utility of to know. In spite of the respect of quality of life, can we really allow this type of human selection to be made? The next knowledges of the human genoma map bring us into the predictive medicine. Using "compulsory" PND is a real risk to practice dangerously, a soft eugenism. PND must be, and remain an outstanding advance to provide better treatment.

  3. Predictive Modeling of Cardiac Ischemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Gary T.

    1996-01-01

    The goal of the Contextual Alarms Management System (CALMS) project is to develop sophisticated models to predict the onset of clinical cardiac ischemia before it occurs. The system will continuously monitor cardiac patients and set off an alarm when they appear about to suffer an ischemic episode. The models take as inputs information from patient history and combine it with continuously updated information extracted from blood pressure, oxygen saturation and ECG lines. Expert system, statistical, neural network and rough set methodologies are then used to forecast the onset of clinical ischemia before it transpires, thus allowing early intervention aimed at preventing morbid complications from occurring. The models will differ from previous attempts by including combinations of continuous and discrete inputs. A commercial medical instrumentation and software company has invested funds in the project with a goal of commercialization of the technology. The end product will be a system that analyzes physiologic parameters and produces an alarm when myocardial ischemia is present. If proven feasible, a CALMS-based system will be added to existing heart monitoring hardware.

  4. The MULTICOM toolbox for protein structure prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng Jianlin

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As genome sequencing is becoming routine in biomedical research, the total number of protein sequences is increasing exponentially, recently reaching over 108 million. However, only a tiny portion of these proteins (i.e. ~75,000 or Results To meet the need, we have developed a comprehensive MULTICOM toolbox consisting of a set of protein structure and structural feature prediction tools. These tools include secondary structure prediction, solvent accessibility prediction, disorder region prediction, domain boundary prediction, contact map prediction, disulfide bond prediction, beta-sheet topology prediction, fold recognition, multiple template combination and alignment, template-based tertiary structure modeling, protein model quality assessment, and mutation stability prediction. Conclusions These tools have been rigorously tested by many users in the last several years and/or during the last three rounds of the Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP7-9 from 2006 to 2010, achieving state-of-the-art or near performance. In order to facilitate bioinformatics research and technological development in the field, we have made the MULTICOM toolbox freely available as web services and/or software packages for academic use and scientific research. It is available at http://sysbio.rnet.missouri.edu/multicom_toolbox/.

  5. Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Sinatra

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

  6. Predictability of threshold exceedances in dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bódai, Tamás

    2015-12-01

    In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events-the cornerstone also for the categoric (as opposed to probabilistic) prediction of threshold exceedances-is established from long time series of one or more observables of the same system. The prediction skill is measured by a summary index of the ROC curve that relates the hit- and false alarm rates. Our results for the examined systems suggest that exceedances of higher thresholds are more predictable; or in other words: rare large magnitude, i.e., extreme, events are more predictable than frequent typical events. We find this to hold provided that the bin size for binning time series data is optimized, but not necessarily otherwise. This can be viewed as a confirmation of a counterintuitive (and seemingly contrafactual) statement that was previously formulated for more simple autoregressive stochastic processes. However, we argue that for dynamical systems in general it may be typical only, but not universally true. We argue that when there is a sufficient amount of data depending on the precision of observation, the skill of a class of data-driven categoric predictions of threshold exceedances approximates the skill of the analogous model-driven prediction, assuming strictly no model errors. Therefore, stronger extremes in terms of higher threshold levels are more predictable both in case of data- and model-driven prediction. Furthermore, we show that a quantity commonly regarded as a measure of predictability, the finite-time maximal Lyapunov exponent, does not correspond directly to the ROC-based measure of prediction skill when they are viewed as functions of the prediction lead time and the threshold level. This points to the fact that even if the Lyapunov exponent as an intrinsic property of the system, measuring the instability of trajectories, determines predictability

  7. An iterative approach of protein function prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Xiaoxiao

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Current approaches of predicting protein functions from a protein-protein interaction (PPI dataset are based on an assumption that the available functions of the proteins (a.k.a. annotated proteins will determine the functions of the proteins whose functions are unknown yet at the moment (a.k.a. un-annotated proteins. Therefore, the protein function prediction is a mono-directed and one-off procedure, i.e. from annotated proteins to un-annotated proteins. However, the interactions between proteins are mutual rather than static and mono-directed, although functions of some proteins are unknown for some reasons at present. That means when we use the similarity-based approach to predict functions of un-annotated proteins, the un-annotated proteins, once their functions are predicted, will affect the similarities between proteins, which in turn will affect the prediction results. In other words, the function prediction is a dynamic and mutual procedure. This dynamic feature of protein interactions, however, was not considered in the existing prediction algorithms. Results In this paper, we propose a new prediction approach that predicts protein functions iteratively. This iterative approach incorporates the dynamic and mutual features of PPI interactions, as well as the local and global semantic influence of protein functions, into the prediction. To guarantee predicting functions iteratively, we propose a new protein similarity from protein functions. We adapt new evaluation metrics to evaluate the prediction quality of our algorithm and other similar algorithms. Experiments on real PPI datasets were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting unknown protein functions. Conclusions The iterative approach is more likely to reflect the real biological nature between proteins when predicting functions. A proper definition of protein similarity from protein functions is the key to predicting

  8. Algorithm for Predicting Protein Secondary Structure

    CERN Document Server

    Senapati, K K; Bhaumik, D

    2010-01-01

    Predicting protein structure from amino acid sequence is one of the most important unsolved problems of molecular biology and biophysics.Not only would a successful prediction algorithm be a tremendous advance in the understanding of the biochemical mechanisms of proteins, but, since such an algorithm could conceivably be used to design proteins to carry out specific functions.Prediction of the secondary structure of a protein (alpha-helix, beta-sheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three dimensional structure as well as its function. In this research, we use different Hidden Markov models for protein secondary structure prediction. In this paper we have proposed an algorithm for predicting protein secondary structure. We have used Hidden Markov model with sliding window for secondary structure prediction.The secondary structure has three regular forms, for each secondary structural element we are using one Hidden Markov Model.

  9. Video Traffic Prediction Using Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš Oravec

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider video stream prediction for application in services likevideo-on-demand, videoconferencing, video broadcasting, etc. The aim is to predict thevideo stream for an efficient bandwidth allocation of the video signal. Efficient predictionof traffic generated by multimedia sources is an important part of traffic and congestioncontrol procedures at the network edges. As a tool for the prediction, we use neuralnetworks – multilayer perceptron (MLP, radial basis function networks (RBF networksand backpropagation through time (BPTT neural networks. At first, we briefly introducetheoretical background of neural networks, the prediction methods and the differencebetween them. We propose also video time-series processing using moving averages.Simulation results for each type of neural network together with final comparisons arepresented. For comparison purposes, also conventional (non-neural prediction isincluded. The purpose of our work is to construct suitable neural networks for variable bitrate video prediction and evaluate them. We use video traces from [1].

  10. Predictive depth coding of wavelet transformed images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehtinen, Joonas

    1999-10-01

    In this paper, a new prediction based method, predictive depth coding, for lossy wavelet image compression is presented. It compresses a wavelet pyramid composition by predicting the number of significant bits in each wavelet coefficient quantized by the universal scalar quantization and then by coding the prediction error with arithmetic coding. The adaptively found linear prediction context covers spatial neighbors of the coefficient to be predicted and the corresponding coefficients on lower scale and in the different orientation pyramids. In addition to the number of significant bits, the sign and the bits of non-zero coefficients are coded. The compression method is tested with a standard set of images and the results are compared with SFQ, SPIHT, EZW and context based algorithms. Even though the algorithm is very simple and it does not require any extra memory, the compression results are relatively good.

  11. Predictive Approaches to Control of Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Karer, Gorazd

    2013-01-01

    A predictive control algorithm uses a model of the controlled system to predict the system behavior for various input scenarios and determines the most appropriate inputs accordingly. Predictive controllers are suitable for a wide range of systems; therefore, their advantages are especially evident when dealing with relatively complex systems, such as nonlinear, constrained, hybrid, multivariate systems etc. However, designing a predictive control strategy for a complex system is generally a difficult task, because all relevant dynamical phenomena have to be considered. Establishing a suitable model of the system is an essential part of predictive control design. Classic modeling and identification approaches based on linear-systems theory are generally inappropriate for complex systems; hence, models that are able to appropriately consider complex dynamical properties have to be employed in a predictive control algorithm. This book first introduces some modeling frameworks, which can encompass the most frequ...

  12. Probabilistic approach to earthquake prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D'Addezio

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the

  13. Shape Prediction Linear Algorithm Using Fuzzy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navjot Kaur

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the proposed method is to develop shape prediction algorithm using fuzzy that is computationally fast and invariant. To predict the overlapping and joined shapes accurately, a method of shape prediction based on erosion and over segmentation is used to estimate values for dependent variables from previously unseen predictor values based on the variation in an underlying learning data set.

  14. Using Neutral Network in Predicting Corporate Failure

    OpenAIRE

    Huong G. Nguyen

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates the predictive power of three neutral network models: Multi-layer neural network, probabilistic neural network, and logistic regression model in predicting corporate failure. Basing on the database provided by The Corporate Scorecard Group (CSG), we combine financial ratios which deem to be significant predictors of corporate bankruptcy in many previous empirical studies to build our predictive models and test it against the holdout sample. On comparison of the results...

  15. Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-05

    critique count regression models for patent data, and assess the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts...the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts in Germany. We consider a recent suggestion by Baker and...Figure 5. Boxplots for various scores for patent data count regressions. 11 Table 1 Four predictive models for larynx cancer counts in Germany, 1998–2002

  16. Do university entrance exams predict academic achievement?

    OpenAIRE

    Häkkinen, Iida

    2004-01-01

    The study examines which factors predict academic performance at university and compares the predictive values of subject-related entrance exams and indicators of past school performance. The results show that in the fields of engineering and social sciences entrance exams predict both graduation and the number of study credits better than past performance. In education past school performance is a better predictor of graduation. Changing the admission rule to school grades would affect the a...

  17. Protein secondary structure: category assignment and predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Claus A.; Bohr, Henrik; Brunak, Søren

    2001-01-01

    In the last decade, the prediction of protein secondary structure has been optimized using essentially one and the same assignment scheme known as DSSP. We present here a different scheme, which is more predictable. This scheme predicts directly the hydrogen bonds, which stabilize the secondary......-forward neural network with one hidden layer on a data set identical to the one used in earlier work....

  18. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain,...

  19. Applications of Neural Networks in Spinning Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程文红; 陆凯

    2003-01-01

    The neural network spinning prediction model (BP and RBF Networks) trained by data from the mill can predict yarn qualities and spinning performance. The input parameters of the model are as follows: yarn count, diameter, hauteur, bundle strength, spinning draft, spinning speed, traveler number and twist.And the output parameters are: yarn evenness, thin places, tenacity and elongation, ends-down.Predicting results match the testing data well.

  20. Audiovisual biofeedback improves motion prediction accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollock, Sean; Lee, Danny; Keall, Paul; Kim, Taeho

    2013-04-01

    The accuracy of motion prediction, utilized to overcome the system latency of motion management radiotherapy systems, is hampered by irregularities present in the patients' respiratory pattern. Audiovisual (AV) biofeedback has been shown to reduce respiratory irregularities. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that AV biofeedback improves the accuracy of motion prediction. An AV biofeedback system combined with real-time respiratory data acquisition and MR images were implemented in this project. One-dimensional respiratory data from (1) the abdominal wall (30 Hz) and (2) the thoracic diaphragm (5 Hz) were obtained from 15 healthy human subjects across 30 studies. The subjects were required to breathe with and without the guidance of AV biofeedback during each study. The obtained respiratory signals were then implemented in a kernel density estimation prediction algorithm. For each of the 30 studies, five different prediction times ranging from 50 to 1400 ms were tested (150 predictions performed). Prediction error was quantified as the root mean square error (RMSE); the RMSE was calculated from the difference between the real and predicted respiratory data. The statistical significance of the prediction results was determined by the Student's t-test. Prediction accuracy was considerably improved by the implementation of AV biofeedback. Of the 150 respiratory predictions performed, prediction accuracy was improved 69% (103/150) of the time for abdominal wall data, and 78% (117/150) of the time for diaphragm data. The average reduction in RMSE due to AV biofeedback over unguided respiration was 26% (p biofeedback improves prediction accuracy. This would result in increased efficiency of motion management techniques affected by system latencies used in radiotherapy.

  1. Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-13-1-0408 TITLE: Pathogenesis and Prediction of Future Rheumatoid Arthritis PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Kevin D. Deane, MD/PhD...order to understand two major factors: 1) how biomarker changes in preclinical RA can be used to accurately predict the future development of RA in...will be performed. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Prediction of future rheumatoid arthritis; pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF

  2. Recommendations for PDF usage in LHC predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Placakyte, Ringaile

    2016-01-01

    A short review of the currently available modern parton distribution functions (PDFs)and the theory predictions obtained using those PDFs for several benchmark processes at LHC, including Higgs boson production, is presented in this write-up. It includes the discussion on theory assumptions made in the determination procedure of PDFs and an impact on the differences in the obtained predictions, followed by the alternative to PDF4LHC recommendations for the usage of PDF sets for theory predictions at the LHC.

  3. Forecasting hotspots using predictive visual analytics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maciejewski, Ross; Hafen, Ryan; Rudolph, Stephen; Cleveland, William; Ebert, David

    2014-12-30

    A method for forecasting hotspots is provided. The method may include the steps of receiving input data at an input of the computational device, generating a temporal prediction based on the input data, generating a geospatial prediction based on the input data, and generating output data based on the time series and geospatial predictions. The output data may be configured to display at least one user interface at an output of the computational device.

  4. Two Comments on Predictive Picture Coding

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    Two comments on predictive picture coding are given in this paper. 1) In lossy coding, the reconstructed values of picture samples, not its original values, should be used in the prediction formula. 2) In the design of optimum predictors, the minimum entropy or subjective assessment or other criterions, could be used, depending on the applications of the prediction encoder, instead of the minimum mean square error (MMSE) criterion.

  5. Predicting Group Evolution in the Social Network

    OpenAIRE

    Bródka, Piotr; Kazienko, Przemysław; Kołoszczyk, Bartosz

    2012-01-01

    Groups - social communities are important components of entire societies, analysed by means of the social network concept. Their immanent feature is continuous evolution over time. If we know how groups in the social network has evolved we can use this information and try to predict the next step in the given group evolution. In the paper, a new aproach for group evolution prediction is presented and examined. Experimental studies on four evolving social networks revealed that (i) the predict...

  6. Predicting Process Behaviour using Deep Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Evermann, Joerg; Rehse, Jana-Rebecca; Fettke, Peter

    2016-01-01

    Predicting business process behaviour, such as the final state of a running process, the remaining time to completion or the next activity of a running process, is an important aspect of business process management. Motivated by research in natural language processing, this paper describes an application of deep learning with recurrent neural networks to the problem of predicting the next event in a business process. This is both a novel method in process prediction, which has largely relied ...

  7. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    OpenAIRE

    Drisya, G. V.; Kiplangat, D. C.; Asokan, K; K. Satheesh Kumar

    2014-01-01

    Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that determin...

  8. Disagreement, Uncertainty and the True Predictive Density

    OpenAIRE

    Fabian Krüger; Ingmar Nolte

    2011-01-01

    This paper generalizes the discussion about disagreement versus uncertainty in macroeconomic survey data by emphasizing the importance of the (unknown) true predictive density. Using a forecast combination approach, we ask whether cross sections of survey point forecasts help to approximate the true predictive density. We find that although these cross-sections perform poorly individually, their inclusion into combined predictive densities can significantly improve upon densities relying sole...

  9. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Bruce Hardison [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stein, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  10. Predictions of High Energy Experimental Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comay E.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Eight predictions of high energy experimental results are presented. The predictions contain the $Sigma ^+$ charge radius and results of two kinds of experiments using energetic pionic beams. In addition, predictions of the failure to find the following objects are presented: glueballs, pentaquarks, Strange Quark Matter, magnetic monopoles searched by their direct interaction with charges and the Higgs boson. The first seven predictions rely on the Regular Charge-Monopole Theory and the last one relies on mathematical inconsistencies of the Higgs Lagrangian density.

  11. Predicting division plane position and orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minc, Nicolas; Piel, Matthieu

    2012-04-01

    Predicting cellular behavior is a major challenge in cell and developmental biology. Since the late nineteenth century, empirical rules have been formulated to predict the position and orientation of mitotic cleavage planes in plant and animal cells. Here, we review the history of division plane orientation rules and discuss recent experimental and theoretical studies that refine these rules and provide mechanistic insights into how division can be predicted. We describe why some of these rules may better apply to certain cell types and developmental contexts and discuss how they could be integrated in the future to allow the prediction of division positioning in tissues.

  12. An overview of service lifetime prediction (SLP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jorgensen, G. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO (United States)

    1995-11-01

    This report describes the need for service life prediction for photovoltaic cells and associated devices, coatings, and other related technologies. Information regarding outdoor exposure tests is given.

  13. Implementation of short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L.; Joensen, A.; Giebel, G. [and others

    1999-03-01

    This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

  14. Fracture Toughness Prediction for MWCNT Reinforced Ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henager, Charles H.; Nguyen, Ba Nghiep

    2013-09-01

    This report describes the development of a micromechanics model to predict fracture toughness of multiwall carbon nanotube (MWCNT) reinforced ceramic composites to guide future experimental work for this project. The modeling work described in this report includes (i) prediction of elastic properties, (ii) development of a mechanistic damage model accounting for matrix cracking to predict the composite nonlinear stress/strain response to tensile loading to failure, and (iii) application of this damage model in a modified boundary layer (MBL) analysis using ABAQUS to predict fracture toughness and crack resistance behavior (R-curves) for ceramic materials containing MWCNTs at various volume fractions.

  15. Towards the perfect prediction of soccer matches

    CERN Document Server

    Heuer, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    We present a systematic approach to the prediction of soccer matches. First, we show that the information about chances for goals is by far more informative than about the actual results. Second, we present a multivariate regression approach and show how the prediction quality increases with increasing information content. This prediction quality can be explicitly expressed in terms of just two parameters. Third, by disentangling the systematic and random components of soccer matches we can identify the optimum level of predictability. These concepts are exemplified for the German Bundesliga.

  16. Predicting gene expression from sequence: a reexamination.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Yuan

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Although much of the information regarding genes' expressions is encoded in the genome, deciphering such information has been very challenging. We reexamined Beer and Tavazoie's (BT approach to predict mRNA expression patterns of 2,587 genes in Saccharomyces cerevisiae from the information in their respective promoter sequences. Instead of fitting complex Bayesian network models, we trained naïve Bayes classifiers using only the sequence-motif matching scores provided by BT. Our simple models correctly predict expression patterns for 79% of the genes, based on the same criterion and the same cross-validation (CV procedure as BT, which compares favorably to the 73% accuracy of BT. The fact that our approach did not use position and orientation information of the predicted binding sites but achieved a higher prediction accuracy, motivated us to investigate a few biological predictions made by BT. We found that some of their predictions, especially those related to motif orientations and positions, are at best circumstantial. For example, the combinatorial rules suggested by BT for the PAC and RRPE motifs are not unique to the cluster of genes from which the predictive model was inferred, and there are simpler rules that are statistically more significant than BT's ones. We also show that CV procedure used by BT to estimate their method's prediction accuracy is inappropriate and may have overestimated the prediction accuracy by about 10%.

  17. Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sterk

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

  18. Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melia, N.; Haines, K.; Hawkins, E.; Day, J. J.

    2017-08-01

    The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of ‘perfect model’ experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May ‘predictability barrier’. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems.

  19. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drisya, G. V.; Kiplangat, D. C.; Asokan, K.; Satheesh Kumar, K.

    2014-11-01

    Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error) of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  20. Predictions of High Energy Experimental Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Comay E.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Eight predictions of high energy experimental results are presented. The predictions contain the + charge radius and results of two kinds of experiments using energetic pionic beams. In addition, predictions of the failure to find the following objects are presented: glueballs, pentaquarks, Strange Quark Matter, magnetic monopoles searched by their direct interaction with charges and the Higgs boson. The first seven predictions rely on the Regular Charge-Monopole Theory and the last one relies on mathematical inconsistencies of the Higgs Lagrangian density.