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Sample records for sample survey estimation

  1. Sample Size Calculations for Population Size Estimation Studies Using Multiplier Methods With Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fearon, Elizabeth; Chabata, Sungai T; Thompson, Jennifer A; Cowan, Frances M; Hargreaves, James R

    2017-09-14

    While guidance exists for obtaining population size estimates using multiplier methods with respondent-driven sampling surveys, we lack specific guidance for making sample size decisions. To guide the design of multiplier method population size estimation studies using respondent-driven sampling surveys to reduce the random error around the estimate obtained. The population size estimate is obtained by dividing the number of individuals receiving a service or the number of unique objects distributed (M) by the proportion of individuals in a representative survey who report receipt of the service or object (P). We have developed an approach to sample size calculation, interpreting methods to estimate the variance around estimates obtained using multiplier methods in conjunction with research into design effects and respondent-driven sampling. We describe an application to estimate the number of female sex workers in Harare, Zimbabwe. There is high variance in estimates. Random error around the size estimate reflects uncertainty from M and P, particularly when the estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey is low. As expected, sample size requirements are higher when the design effect of the survey is assumed to be greater. We suggest a method for investigating the effects of sample size on the precision of a population size estimate obtained using multipler methods and respondent-driven sampling. Uncertainty in the size estimate is high, particularly when P is small, so balancing against other potential sources of bias, we advise researchers to consider longer service attendance reference periods and to distribute more unique objects, which is likely to result in a higher estimate of P in the respondent-driven sampling survey. ©Elizabeth Fearon, Sungai T Chabata, Jennifer A Thompson, Frances M Cowan, James R Hargreaves. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 14.09.2017.

  2. Sample size methods for estimating HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konikoff, Jacob; Brookmeyer, Ron

    2015-12-01

    Understanding HIV incidence, the rate at which new infections occur in populations, is critical for tracking and surveillance of the epidemic. In this article, we derive methods for determining sample sizes for cross-sectional surveys to estimate incidence with sufficient precision. We further show how to specify sample sizes for two successive cross-sectional surveys to detect changes in incidence with adequate power. In these surveys biomarkers such as CD4 cell count, viral load, and recently developed serological assays are used to determine which individuals are in an early disease stage of infection. The total number of individuals in this stage, divided by the number of people who are uninfected, is used to approximate the incidence rate. Our methods account for uncertainty in the durations of time spent in the biomarker defined early disease stage. We find that failure to account for this uncertainty when designing surveys can lead to imprecise estimates of incidence and underpowered studies. We evaluated our sample size methods in simulations and found that they performed well in a variety of underlying epidemics. Code for implementing our methods in R is available with this article at the Biometrics website on Wiley Online Library. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  3. Creel survey sampling designs for estimating effort in short-duration Chinook salmon fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha sport fisheries in the Columbia River basin are commonly monitored using roving creel survey designs and require precise, unbiased catch estimates. The objective of this study was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates using various sampling designs to estimate angling effort under the assumption that mean catch rate was known. We obtained information on angling populations based on direct visual observations of portions of Chinook Salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over a 23-d period. Based on the angling population, Monte Carlo simulations were used to evaluate the properties of effort and catch estimates for each sampling design. All sampling designs evaluated were relatively unbiased. Systematic random sampling (SYS) resulted in the most precise estimates. The SYS and simple random sampling designs had mean square error (MSE) estimates that were generally half of those observed with cluster sampling designs. The SYS design was more efficient (i.e., higher accuracy per unit cost) than a two-cluster design. Increasing the number of clusters available for sampling within a day decreased the MSE of estimates of daily angling effort, but the MSE of total catch estimates was variable depending on the fishery. The results of our simulations provide guidelines on the relative influence of sample sizes and sampling designs on parameters of interest in short-duration Chinook Salmon fisheries.

  4. Improved sampling for airborne surveys to estimate wildlife population parameters in the African Savannah

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaemba, W.; Stein, A.

    2002-01-01

    Parameter estimates, obtained from airborne surveys of wildlife populations, often have large bias and large standard errors. Sampling error is one of the major causes of this imprecision and the occurrence of many animals in herds violates the common assumptions in traditional sampling designs like

  5. Optimum sample size to estimate mean parasite abundance in fish parasite surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shvydka S.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available To reach ethically and scientifically valid mean abundance values in parasitological and epidemiological studies this paper considers analytic and simulation approaches for sample size determination. The sample size estimation was carried out by applying mathematical formula with predetermined precision level and parameter of the negative binomial distribution estimated from the empirical data. A simulation approach to optimum sample size determination aimed at the estimation of true value of the mean abundance and its confidence interval (CI was based on the Bag of Little Bootstraps (BLB. The abundance of two species of monogenean parasites Ligophorus cephali and L. mediterraneus from Mugil cephalus across the Azov-Black Seas localities were subjected to the analysis. The dispersion pattern of both helminth species could be characterized as a highly aggregated distribution with the variance being substantially larger than the mean abundance. The holistic approach applied here offers a wide range of appropriate methods in searching for the optimum sample size and the understanding about the expected precision level of the mean. Given the superior performance of the BLB relative to formulae with its few assumptions, the bootstrap procedure is the preferred method. Two important assessments were performed in the present study: i based on CIs width a reasonable precision level for the mean abundance in parasitological surveys of Ligophorus spp. could be chosen between 0.8 and 0.5 with 1.6 and 1x mean of the CIs width, and ii the sample size equal 80 or more host individuals allows accurate and precise estimation of mean abundance. Meanwhile for the host sample size in range between 25 and 40 individuals, the median estimates showed minimal bias but the sampling distribution skewed to the low values; a sample size of 10 host individuals yielded to unreliable estimates.

  6. Small-vessel Survey and Auction Sampling to Estimate Growth and Maturity of Eteline Snappers

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Small-vessel Survey and Auction Sampling to Estimate Growth and Maturity of Eteline Snappers and Improve Data-Limited Stock Assessments. This biosampling project...

  7. Statistical properties of mean stand biomass estimators in a LIDAR-based double sampling forest survey design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    H.E. Anderson; J. Breidenbach

    2007-01-01

    Airborne laser scanning (LIDAR) can be a valuable tool in double-sampling forest survey designs. LIDAR-derived forest structure metrics are often highly correlated with important forest inventory variables, such as mean stand biomass, and LIDAR-based synthetic regression estimators have the potential to be highly efficient compared to single-stage estimators, which...

  8. Variable selection and estimation for longitudinal survey data

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Li

    2014-09-01

    There is wide interest in studying longitudinal surveys where sample subjects are observed successively over time. Longitudinal surveys have been used in many areas today, for example, in the health and social sciences, to explore relationships or to identify significant variables in regression settings. This paper develops a general strategy for the model selection problem in longitudinal sample surveys. A survey weighted penalized estimating equation approach is proposed to select significant variables and estimate the coefficients simultaneously. The proposed estimators are design consistent and perform as well as the oracle procedure when the correct submodel was known. The estimating function bootstrap is applied to obtain the standard errors of the estimated parameters with good accuracy. A fast and efficient variable selection algorithm is developed to identify significant variables for complex longitudinal survey data. Simulated examples are illustrated to show the usefulness of the proposed methodology under various model settings and sampling designs. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

  9. Mahalanobis' Contributions to Sample Surveys

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sample Survey started its operations in October 1950 under the ... and adopted random cuts for estimating the acreage under jute ... demographic factors relating to indebtedness, unemployment, ... traffic surveys, demand for currency coins and average life of .... Mahalanobis derived the optimum allocation in stratified.

  10. Off-road sampling reveals a different grassland bird community than roadside sampling: implications for survey design and estimates to guide conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy I. Wellicome

    2014-06-01

    concern. Our results highlight the need to develop appropriate corrections for bias in estimates derived from roadside sampling, and the need to design surveys that sample bird communities across a more representative cross-section of the landscape, both near and far from roads.

  11. Improving the Network Scale-Up Estimator: Incorporating Means of Sums, Recursive Back Estimation, and Sampling Weights.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Habecker

    Full Text Available Researchers interested in studying populations that are difficult to reach through traditional survey methods can now draw on a range of methods to access these populations. Yet many of these methods are more expensive and difficult to implement than studies using conventional sampling frames and trusted sampling methods. The network scale-up method (NSUM provides a middle ground for researchers who wish to estimate the size of a hidden population, but lack the resources to conduct a more specialized hidden population study. Through this method it is possible to generate population estimates for a wide variety of groups that are perhaps unwilling to self-identify as such (for example, users of illegal drugs or other stigmatized populations via traditional survey tools such as telephone or mail surveys--by asking a representative sample to estimate the number of people they know who are members of such a "hidden" subpopulation. The original estimator is formulated to minimize the weight a single scaling variable can exert upon the estimates. We argue that this introduces hidden and difficult to predict biases, and instead propose a series of methodological advances on the traditional scale-up estimation procedure, including a new estimator. Additionally, we formalize the incorporation of sample weights into the network scale-up estimation process, and propose a recursive process of back estimation "trimming" to identify and remove poorly performing predictors from the estimation process. To demonstrate these suggestions we use data from a network scale-up mail survey conducted in Nebraska during 2014. We find that using the new estimator and recursive trimming process provides more accurate estimates, especially when used in conjunction with sampling weights.

  12. A random cluster survey and a convenience sample give comparable estimates of immunity to vaccine preventable diseases in children of school age in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Heath; Riddell, Michaela A; Gidding, Heather F; Nolan, Terry; Gilbert, Gwendolyn L

    2002-08-19

    We compared estimates of the age-specific population immunity to measles, mumps, rubella, hepatitis B and varicella zoster viruses in Victorian school children obtained by a national sero-survey, using a convenience sample of residual sera from diagnostic laboratories throughout Australia, with those from a three-stage random cluster survey. When grouped according to school age (primary or secondary school) there was no significant difference in the estimates of immunity to measles, mumps, hepatitis B or varicella. Compared with the convenience sample, the random cluster survey estimated higher immunity to rubella in samples from both primary (98.7% versus 93.6%, P = 0.002) and secondary school students (98.4% versus 93.2%, P = 0.03). Despite some limitations, this study suggests that the collection of a convenience sample of sera from diagnostic laboratories is an appropriate sampling strategy to provide population immunity data that will inform Australia's current and future immunisation policies. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

  13. Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willekens, Frans; Zinn, Sabine; Leuchter, Matthias

    2017-12-01

    What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given period and the population at risk of leaving, weighted by the duration at risk. Emigration surveys provide a useful data source for estimating emigration rates, provided that the estimation method accounts for sample design. In this study, emigration rates and confidence intervals are estimated from a sample survey of households in the Dakar region in Senegal, which was part of the Migration between Africa and Europe survey. The sample was a stratified two-stage sample with oversampling of households with members abroad or return migrants. A combination of methods of survival analysis (time-to-event data) and replication variance estimation (bootstrapping) yields emigration rates and design-consistent confidence intervals that are representative for the study population.

  14. Spatial pattern corrections and sample sizes for forest density estimates of historical tree surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brice B. Hanberry; Shawn Fraver; Hong S. He; Jian Yang; Dan C. Dey; Brian J. Palik

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. General Land Office land surveys document trees present during European settlement. However, use of these surveys for calculating historical forest density and other derived metrics is limited by uncertainty about the performance of plotless density estimators under a range of conditions. Therefore, we tested two plotless density estimators, developed by...

  15. Estimation of sample size and testing power (Part 4).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

    2012-01-01

    Sample size estimation is necessary for any experimental or survey research. An appropriate estimation of sample size based on known information and statistical knowledge is of great significance. This article introduces methods of sample size estimation of difference test for data with the design of one factor with two levels, including sample size estimation formulas and realization based on the formulas and the POWER procedure of SAS software for quantitative data and qualitative data with the design of one factor with two levels. In addition, this article presents examples for analysis, which will play a leading role for researchers to implement the repetition principle during the research design phase.

  16. Estimating the encounter rate variance in distance sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fewster, R.M.; Buckland, S.T.; Burnham, K.P.; Borchers, D.L.; Jupp, P.E.; Laake, J.L.; Thomas, L.

    2009-01-01

    The dominant source of variance in line transect sampling is usually the encounter rate variance. Systematic survey designs are often used to reduce the true variability among different realizations of the design, but estimating the variance is difficult and estimators typically approximate the variance by treating the design as a simple random sample of lines. We explore the properties of different encounter rate variance estimators under random and systematic designs. We show that a design-based variance estimator improves upon the model-based estimator of Buckland et al. (2001, Introduction to Distance Sampling. Oxford: Oxford University Press, p. 79) when transects are positioned at random. However, if populations exhibit strong spatial trends, both estimators can have substantial positive bias under systematic designs. We show that poststratification is effective in reducing this bias. ?? 2008, The International Biometric Society.

  17. Estimation and correction of visibility bias in aerial surveys of wintering ducks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, A.T.; Gerard, P.D.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.; Reinecke, K.J.

    2008-01-01

    Incomplete detection of all individuals leading to negative bias in abundance estimates is a pervasive source of error in aerial surveys of wildlife, and correcting that bias is a critical step in improving surveys. We conducted experiments using duck decoys as surrogates for live ducks to estimate bias associated with surveys of wintering ducks in Mississippi, USA. We found detection of decoy groups was related to wetland cover type (open vs. forested), group size (1?100 decoys), and interaction of these variables. Observers who detected decoy groups reported counts that averaged 78% of the decoys actually present, and this counting bias was not influenced by either covariate cited above. We integrated this sightability model into estimation procedures for our sample surveys with weight adjustments derived from probabilities of group detection (estimated by logistic regression) and count bias. To estimate variances of abundance estimates, we used bootstrap resampling of transects included in aerial surveys and data from the bias-correction experiment. When we implemented bias correction procedures on data from a field survey conducted in January 2004, we found bias-corrected estimates of abundance increased 36?42%, and associated standard errors increased 38?55%, depending on species or group estimated. We deemed our method successful for integrating correction of visibility bias in an existing sample survey design for wintering ducks in Mississippi, and we believe this procedure could be implemented in a variety of sampling problems for other locations and species.

  18. On the problems of PPS sampling in multi-character surveys ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper, which is on the problems of PPS sampling in multi-character surveys, compares the efficiency of some estimators used in PPSWR sampling for multiple characteristics. From a superpopulation model, we computed the expected variances of the different estimators for each of the first two finite populations ...

  19. Comparison of distance sampling estimates to a known population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Line-transect sampling was used to obtain abundance estimates of an Ant-eating Chat Myrmecocichla formicivora population to compare these with the true size of the population. The population size was determined by a long-term banding study, and abundance estimates were obtained by surveying line transects.

  20. Estimating abundance of mountain lions from unstructured spatial sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Robin E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Desimone, Richard; Schwartz, Michael K.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Pilgrim, Kristy P.; Mckelvey, Kevin S.

    2012-01-01

    Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% Cl 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% Cl 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and

  1. Comparative Study of Complex Survey Estimation Software in ONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andy Fallows

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Many official statistics across the UK Government Statistical Service (GSS are produced using data collected from sample surveys. These survey data are used to estimate population statistics through weighting and calibration techniques. For surveys with complex or unusual sample designs, the weighting can be fairly complicated. Even in more simple cases, appropriate software is required to implement survey weighting and estimation. As with other stages of the survey process, it is preferable to use a standard, generic calibration tool wherever possible. Standard tools allow for efficient use of resources and assist with the harmonisation of methods. In the case of calibration, the Office for National Statistics (ONS has experience of using the Statistics Canada Generalized Estimation System (GES across a range of business and social surveys. GES is a SAS-based system and so is only available in conjunction with an appropriate SAS licence. Given recent initiatives and encouragement to investigate open source solutions across government, it is appropriate to determine whether there are any open source calibration tools available that can provide the same service as GES. This study compares the use of GES with the calibration tool ‘R evolved Generalized software for sampling estimates and errors in surveys’ (ReGenesees available in R, an open source statistical programming language which is beginning to be used in many statistical offices. ReGenesees is a free R package which has been developed by the Italian statistics office (Istat and includes functionality to calibrate survey estimates using similar techniques to GES. This report describes analysis of the performance of ReGenesees in comparison to GES to calibrate a representative selection of ONS surveys. Section 1.1 provides a brief introduction to the current use of SAS and R in ONS. Section 2 describes GES and ReGenesees in more detail. Sections 3.1 and 3.2 consider methods for

  2. Pairing call-response surveys and distance sampling for a mammalian carnivore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Sara J. K.; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Underwood, Harold B.; Gibbs, James P.

    2015-01-01

    Density estimates accounting for differential animal detectability are difficult to acquire for wide-ranging and elusive species such as mammalian carnivores. Pairing distance sampling with call-response surveys may provide an efficient means of tracking changes in populations of coyotes (Canis latrans), a species of particular interest in the eastern United States. Blind field trials in rural New York State indicated 119-m linear error for triangulated coyote calls, and a 1.8-km distance threshold for call detectability, which was sufficient to estimate a detection function with precision using distance sampling. We conducted statewide road-based surveys with sampling locations spaced ≥6 km apart from June to August 2010. Each detected call (be it a single or group) counted as a single object, representing 1 territorial pair, because of uncertainty in the number of vocalizing animals. From 524 survey points and 75 detections, we estimated the probability of detecting a calling coyote to be 0.17 ± 0.02 SE, yielding a detection-corrected index of 0.75 pairs/10 km2 (95% CI: 0.52–1.1, 18.5% CV) for a minimum of 8,133 pairs across rural New York State. Importantly, we consider this an index rather than true estimate of abundance given the unknown probability of coyote availability for detection during our surveys. Even so, pairing distance sampling with call-response surveys provided a novel, efficient, and noninvasive means of monitoring populations of wide-ranging and elusive, albeit reliably vocal, mammalian carnivores. Our approach offers an effective new means of tracking species like coyotes, one that is readily extendable to other species and geographic extents, provided key assumptions of distance sampling are met.

  3. Development of a sampling strategy and sample size calculation to estimate the distribution of mammographic breast density in Korean women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, Jae Kwan; Kim, Mi Jin; Choi, Kui Son; Suh, Mina; Jung, Kyu-Won

    2012-01-01

    Mammographic breast density is a known risk factor for breast cancer. To conduct a survey to estimate the distribution of mammographic breast density in Korean women, appropriate sampling strategies for representative and efficient sampling design were evaluated through simulation. Using the target population from the National Cancer Screening Programme (NCSP) for breast cancer in 2009, we verified the distribution estimate by repeating the simulation 1,000 times using stratified random sampling to investigate the distribution of breast density of 1,340,362 women. According to the simulation results, using a sampling design stratifying the nation into three groups (metropolitan, urban, and rural), with a total sample size of 4,000, we estimated the distribution of breast density in Korean women at a level of 0.01% tolerance. Based on the results of our study, a nationwide survey for estimating the distribution of mammographic breast density among Korean women can be conducted efficiently.

  4. Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

    1994-01-01

    The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

  5. Modern survey sampling

    CERN Document Server

    Chaudhuri, Arijit

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to SamplingAbstract Introduction Concepts of Population, Sample, and SamplingInitial RamificationsAbstract Introduction Sampling Design, Sampling SchemeRandom Numbers and Their Uses in Simple RandomSampling (SRS)Drawing Simple Random Samples with and withoutReplacementEstimation of Mean, Total, Ratio of Totals/Means:Variance and Variance EstimationDetermination of Sample SizesA.2 Appendix to Chapter 2 A.More on Equal Probability Sampling A.Horvitz-Thompson EstimatorA.SufficiencyA.LikelihoodA.Non-Existence Theorem More Intricacies Abstract Introduction Unequal Probability Sampling StrategiesPPS Sampling Exploring Improved WaysAbstract Introduction Stratified Sampling Cluster SamplingMulti-Stage SamplingMulti-Phase Sampling: Ratio and RegressionEstimationviiviii ContentsControlled SamplingModeling Introduction Super-Population ModelingPrediction Approach Model-Assisted Approach Bayesian Methods Spatial SmoothingSampling on Successive Occasions: Panel Rotation Non-Response and Not-at-Homes Weighting Adj...

  6. The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziya Kordjazi

    Full Text Available Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days. The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery.

  7. The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

  8. Space-Time Smoothing of Complex Survey Data: Small Area Estimation for Child Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Laina D; Wakefield, Jon; Pantazis, Athena; Lutambi, Angelina M; Masanja, Honorati; Clark, Samuel

    2015-12-01

    Many people living in low and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data including many household sample surveys are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to non-random sampling and non-response. The application that motivated this work is estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA).

  9. Surveying immigrants without sampling frames - evaluating the success of alternative field methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichel, David; Morales, Laura

    2017-01-01

    This paper evaluates the sampling methods of an international survey, the Immigrant Citizens Survey, which aimed at surveying immigrants from outside the European Union (EU) in 15 cities in seven EU countries. In five countries, no sample frame was available for the target population. Consequently, alternative ways to obtain a representative sample had to be found. In three countries 'location sampling' was employed, while in two countries traditional methods were used with adaptations to reach the target population. The paper assesses the main methodological challenges of carrying out a survey among a group of immigrants for whom no sampling frame exists. The samples of the survey in these five countries are compared to results of official statistics in order to assess the accuracy of the samples obtained through the different sampling methods. It can be shown that alternative sampling methods can provide meaningful results in terms of core demographic characteristics although some estimates differ to some extent from the census results.

  10. Estimation of Social Exclusion Indicators from Complex Surveys: The R Package laeken

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Alfons

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Units sampled from finite populations typically come with different inclusion proba- bilities. Together with additional preprocessing steps of the raw data, this yields unequal sampling weights of the observations. Whenever indicators are estimated from such com- plex samples, the corresponding sampling weights have to be taken into account. In addition, many indicators suffer from a strong influence of outliers, which are a common problem in real-world data. The R package laeken is an object-oriented toolkit for the estimation of indicators from complex survey samples via standard or robust methods. In particular the most widely used social exclusion and poverty indicators are imple- mented in the package. A general calibrated bootstrap method to estimate the variance of indicators for common survey designs is included as well. Furthermore, the package contains synthetically generated close-to-reality data for the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions and the Structure of Earnings Survey, which are used in the code examples throughout the paper. Even though the paper is focused on showing the functionality of package laeken, it also provides a brief mathematical description of the implemented indicator methodology.

  11. Multiple sensitive estimation and optimal sample size allocation in the item sum technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perri, Pier Francesco; Rueda García, María Del Mar; Cobo Rodríguez, Beatriz

    2018-01-01

    For surveys of sensitive issues in life sciences, statistical procedures can be used to reduce nonresponse and social desirability response bias. Both of these phenomena provoke nonsampling errors that are difficult to deal with and can seriously flaw the validity of the analyses. The item sum technique (IST) is a very recent indirect questioning method derived from the item count technique that seeks to procure more reliable responses on quantitative items than direct questioning while preserving respondents' anonymity. This article addresses two important questions concerning the IST: (i) its implementation when two or more sensitive variables are investigated and efficient estimates of their unknown population means are required; (ii) the determination of the optimal sample size to achieve minimum variance estimates. These aspects are of great relevance for survey practitioners engaged in sensitive research and, to the best of our knowledge, were not studied so far. In this article, theoretical results for multiple estimation and optimal allocation are obtained under a generic sampling design and then particularized to simple random sampling and stratified sampling designs. Theoretical considerations are integrated with a number of simulation studies based on data from two real surveys and conducted to ascertain the efficiency gain derived from optimal allocation in different situations. One of the surveys concerns cannabis consumption among university students. Our findings highlight some methodological advances that can be obtained in life sciences IST surveys when optimal allocation is achieved. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Conditional estimation of exponential random graph models from snowball sampling designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pattison, Philippa E.; Robins, Garry L.; Snijders, Tom A. B.; Wang, Peng

    2013-01-01

    A complete survey of a network in a large population may be prohibitively difficult and costly. So it is important to estimate models for networks using data from various network sampling designs, such as link-tracing designs. We focus here on snowball sampling designs, designs in which the members

  13. Estimation of Sensitive Proportion by Randomized Response Data in Successive Sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Yu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the problem of estimation for binomial proportions of sensitive or stigmatizing attributes in the population of interest. Randomized response techniques are suggested for protecting the privacy of respondents and reducing the response bias while eliciting information on sensitive attributes. In many sensitive question surveys, the same population is often sampled repeatedly on each occasion. In this paper, we apply successive sampling scheme to improve the estimation of the sensitive proportion on current occasion.

  14. A two-phase sampling survey for nonresponse and its paradata to correct nonresponse bias in a health surveillance survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santin, G; Bénézet, L; Geoffroy-Perez, B; Bouyer, J; Guéguen, A

    2017-02-01

    The decline in participation rates in surveys, including epidemiological surveillance surveys, has become a real concern since it may increase nonresponse bias. The aim of this study is to estimate the contribution of a complementary survey among a subsample of nonrespondents, and the additional contribution of paradata in correcting for nonresponse bias in an occupational health surveillance survey. In 2010, 10,000 workers were randomly selected and sent a postal questionnaire. Sociodemographic data were available for the whole sample. After data collection of the questionnaires, a complementary survey among a random subsample of 500 nonrespondents was performed using a questionnaire administered by an interviewer. Paradata were collected for the complete subsample of the complementary survey. Nonresponse bias in the initial sample and in the combined samples were assessed using variables from administrative databases available for the whole sample, not subject to differential measurement errors. Corrected prevalences by reweighting technique were estimated by first using the initial survey alone and then the initial and complementary surveys combined, under several assumptions regarding the missing data process. Results were compared by computing relative errors. The response rates of the initial and complementary surveys were 23.6% and 62.6%, respectively. For the initial and the combined surveys, the relative errors decreased after correction for nonresponse on sociodemographic variables. For the combined surveys without paradata, relative errors decreased compared with the initial survey. The contribution of the paradata was weak. When a complex descriptive survey has a low response rate, a short complementary survey among nonrespondents with a protocol which aims to maximize the response rates, is useful. The contribution of sociodemographic variables in correcting for nonresponse bias is important whereas the additional contribution of paradata in

  15. Optimal sampling designs for large-scale fishery sample surveys in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. BAZIGOS

    2007-12-01

    The paper deals with the optimization of the following three large scale sample surveys: biological sample survey of commercial landings (BSCL, experimental fishing sample survey (EFSS, and commercial landings and effort sample survey (CLES.

  16. Grizzly Bear Noninvasive Genetic Tagging Surveys: Estimating the Magnitude of Missed Detections.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason T Fisher

    Full Text Available Sound wildlife conservation decisions require sound information, and scientists increasingly rely on remotely collected data over large spatial scales, such as noninvasive genetic tagging (NGT. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos, for example, are difficult to study at population scales except with noninvasive data, and NGT via hair trapping informs management over much of grizzly bears' range. Considerable statistical effort has gone into estimating sources of heterogeneity, but detection error-arising when a visiting bear fails to leave a hair sample-has not been independently estimated. We used camera traps to survey grizzly bear occurrence at fixed hair traps and multi-method hierarchical occupancy models to estimate the probability that a visiting bear actually leaves a hair sample with viable DNA. We surveyed grizzly bears via hair trapping and camera trapping for 8 monthly surveys at 50 (2012 and 76 (2013 sites in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We used multi-method occupancy models to estimate site occupancy, probability of detection, and conditional occupancy at a hair trap. We tested the prediction that detection error in NGT studies could be induced by temporal variability within season, leading to underestimation of occupancy. NGT via hair trapping consistently underestimated grizzly bear occupancy at a site when compared to camera trapping. At best occupancy was underestimated by 50%; at worst, by 95%. Probability of false absence was reduced through successive surveys, but this mainly accounts for error imparted by movement among repeated surveys, not necessarily missed detections by extant bears. The implications of missed detections and biased occupancy estimates for density estimation-which form the crux of management plans-require consideration. We suggest hair-trap NGT studies should estimate and correct detection error using independent survey methods such as cameras, to ensure the reliability of the data upon which species

  17. Grizzly Bear Noninvasive Genetic Tagging Surveys: Estimating the Magnitude of Missed Detections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jason T; Heim, Nicole; Code, Sandra; Paczkowski, John

    2016-01-01

    Sound wildlife conservation decisions require sound information, and scientists increasingly rely on remotely collected data over large spatial scales, such as noninvasive genetic tagging (NGT). Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos), for example, are difficult to study at population scales except with noninvasive data, and NGT via hair trapping informs management over much of grizzly bears' range. Considerable statistical effort has gone into estimating sources of heterogeneity, but detection error-arising when a visiting bear fails to leave a hair sample-has not been independently estimated. We used camera traps to survey grizzly bear occurrence at fixed hair traps and multi-method hierarchical occupancy models to estimate the probability that a visiting bear actually leaves a hair sample with viable DNA. We surveyed grizzly bears via hair trapping and camera trapping for 8 monthly surveys at 50 (2012) and 76 (2013) sites in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta, Canada. We used multi-method occupancy models to estimate site occupancy, probability of detection, and conditional occupancy at a hair trap. We tested the prediction that detection error in NGT studies could be induced by temporal variability within season, leading to underestimation of occupancy. NGT via hair trapping consistently underestimated grizzly bear occupancy at a site when compared to camera trapping. At best occupancy was underestimated by 50%; at worst, by 95%. Probability of false absence was reduced through successive surveys, but this mainly accounts for error imparted by movement among repeated surveys, not necessarily missed detections by extant bears. The implications of missed detections and biased occupancy estimates for density estimation-which form the crux of management plans-require consideration. We suggest hair-trap NGT studies should estimate and correct detection error using independent survey methods such as cameras, to ensure the reliability of the data upon which species management and

  18. Is a 'convenience' sample useful for estimating immunization coverage in a small population?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Jean E; Jones, Carrie

    2008-01-01

    Rapid survey methodologies are widely used for assessing immunization coverage in developing countries, approximating true stratified random sampling. Non-random ('convenience') sampling is not considered appropriate for estimating immunization coverage rates but has the advantages of low cost and expediency. We assessed the validity of a convenience sample of children presenting to a travelling clinic by comparing the coverage rate in the convenience sample to the true coverage established by surveying each child in three villages in rural Papua New Guinea. The rate of DTF immunization coverage as estimated by the convenience sample was within 10% of the true coverage when the proportion of children in the sample was two-thirds or when only children over the age of one year were counted, but differed by 11% when the sample included only 53% of the children and when all eligible children were included. The convenience sample may be sufficiently accurate for reporting purposes and is useful for identifying areas of low coverage.

  19. inverse gaussian model for small area estimation via gibbs sampling

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADMIN

    For example, MacGibbon and Tomberlin. (1989) have considered estimating small area rates and binomial parameters using empirical Bayes methods. Stroud (1991) used hierarchical Bayes approach for univariate natural exponential families with quadratic variance functions in sample survey applications, while Chaubey ...

  20. Sampling effects on the identification of roadkill hotspots: Implications for survey design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Sara M; Marques, J Tiago; Lourenço, André; Medinas, Denis; Barbosa, A Márcia; Beja, Pedro; Mira, António

    2015-10-01

    Although locating wildlife roadkill hotspots is essential to mitigate road impacts, the influence of study design on hotspot identification remains uncertain. We evaluated how sampling frequency affects the accuracy of hotspot identification, using a dataset of vertebrate roadkills (n = 4427) recorded over a year of daily surveys along 37 km of roads. "True" hotspots were identified using this baseline dataset, as the 500-m segments where the number of road-killed vertebrates exceeded the upper 95% confidence limit of the mean, assuming a Poisson distribution of road-kills per segment. "Estimated" hotspots were identified likewise, using datasets representing progressively lower sampling frequencies, which were produced by extracting data from the baseline dataset at appropriate time intervals (1-30 days). Overall, 24.3% of segments were "true" hotspots, concentrating 40.4% of roadkills. For different groups, "true" hotspots accounted from 6.8% (bats) to 29.7% (small birds) of road segments, concentrating from 60% (lizards, lagomorphs, carnivores) of roadkills. Spatial congruence between "true" and "estimated" hotspots declined rapidly with increasing time interval between surveys, due primarily to increasing false negatives (i.e., missing "true" hotspots). There were also false positives (i.e., wrong "estimated" hotspots), particularly at low sampling frequencies. Spatial accuracy decay with increasing time interval between surveys was higher for smaller-bodied (amphibians, reptiles, small birds, small mammals) than for larger-bodied species (birds of prey, hedgehogs, lagomorphs, carnivores). Results suggest that widely used surveys at weekly or longer intervals may produce poor estimates of roadkill hotspots, particularly for small-bodied species. Surveying daily or at two-day intervals may be required to achieve high accuracy in hotspot identification for multiple species. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Results and evaluation of a survey to estimate Pacific walrus population size, 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speckman, Suzann G.; Chernook, Vladimir I.; Burn, Douglas M.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Kochnev, Anatoly A.; Vasilev, Alexander; Jay, Chadwick V.; Lisovsky, Alexander; Fischbach, Anthony S.; Benter, R. Bradley

    2011-01-01

    In spring 2006, we conducted a collaborative U.S.-Russia survey to estimate abundance of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens). The Bering Sea was partitioned into survey blocks, and a systematic random sample of transects within a subset of the blocks was surveyed with airborne thermal scanners using standard strip-transect methodology. Counts of walruses in photographed groups were used to model the relation between thermal signatures and the number of walruses in groups, which was used to estimate the number of walruses in groups that were detected by the scanner but not photographed. We also modeled the probability of thermally detecting various-sized walrus groups to estimate the number of walruses in groups undetected by the scanner. We used data from radio-tagged walruses to adjust on-ice estimates to account for walruses in the water during the survey. The estimated area of available habitat averaged 668,000 km2 and the area of surveyed blocks was 318,204 km2. The number of Pacific walruses within the surveyed area was estimated at 129,000 with 95% confidence limits of 55,000 to 507,000 individuals. This value can be used by managers as a minimum estimate of the total population size.

  2. Estimating species – area relationships by modeling abundance and frequency subject to incomplete sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaura, Yuichi; Connor, Edward F.; Royle, Andy; Itoh, Katsuo; Sato, Kiyoshi; Taki, Hisatomo; Mishima, Yoshio

    2016-01-01

    Models and data used to describe species–area relationships confound sampling with ecological process as they fail to acknowledge that estimates of species richness arise due to sampling. This compromises our ability to make ecological inferences from and about species–area relationships. We develop and illustrate hierarchical community models of abundance and frequency to estimate species richness. The models we propose separate sampling from ecological processes by explicitly accounting for the fact that sampled patches are seldom completely covered by sampling plots and that individuals present in the sampling plots are imperfectly detected. We propose a multispecies abundance model in which community assembly is treated as the summation of an ensemble of species-level Poisson processes and estimate patch-level species richness as a derived parameter. We use sampling process models appropriate for specific survey methods. We propose a multispecies frequency model that treats the number of plots in which a species occurs as a binomial process. We illustrate these models using data collected in surveys of early-successional bird species and plants in young forest plantation patches. Results indicate that only mature forest plant species deviated from the constant density hypothesis, but the null model suggested that the deviations were too small to alter the form of species–area relationships. Nevertheless, results from simulations clearly show that the aggregate pattern of individual species density–area relationships and occurrence probability–area relationships can alter the form of species–area relationships. The plant community model estimated that only half of the species present in the regional species pool were encountered during the survey. The modeling framework we propose explicitly accounts for sampling processes so that ecological processes can be examined free of sampling artefacts. Our modeling approach is extensible and could be applied

  3. A Bayesian Justification for Random Sampling in Sample Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen Meeden

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In the usual Bayesian approach to survey sampling the sampling design, plays a minimal role, at best. Although a close relationship between exchangeable prior distributions and simple random sampling has been noted; how to formally integrate simple random sampling into the Bayesian paradigm is not clear. Recently it has been argued that the sampling design can be thought of as part of a Bayesian's prior distribution. We will show here that under this scenario simple random sample can be given a Bayesian justification in survey sampling.

  4. Men who have sex with men in Great Britain: comparing methods and estimates from probability and convenience sample surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prah, Philip; Hickson, Ford; Bonell, Chris; McDaid, Lisa M; Johnson, Anne M; Wayal, Sonali; Clifton, Soazig; Sonnenberg, Pam; Nardone, Anthony; Erens, Bob; Copas, Andrew J; Riddell, Julie; Weatherburn, Peter; Mercer, Catherine H

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine sociodemographic and behavioural differences between men who have sex with men (MSM) participating in recent UK convenience surveys and a national probability sample survey. Methods We compared 148 MSM aged 18–64 years interviewed for Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) undertaken in 2010–2012, with men in the same age range participating in contemporaneous convenience surveys of MSM: 15 500 British resident men in the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS); 797 in the London Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey; and 1234 in Scotland's Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey. Analyses compared men reporting at least one male sexual partner (past year) on similarly worded questions and multivariable analyses accounted for sociodemographic differences between the surveys. Results MSM in convenience surveys were younger and better educated than MSM in Natsal-3, and a larger proportion identified as gay (85%–95% vs 62%). Partner numbers were higher and same-sex anal sex more common in convenience surveys. Unprotected anal intercourse was more commonly reported in EMIS. Compared with Natsal-3, MSM in convenience surveys were more likely to report gonorrhoea diagnoses and HIV testing (both past year). Differences between the samples were reduced when restricting analysis to gay-identifying MSM. Conclusions National probability surveys better reflect the population of MSM but are limited by their smaller samples of MSM. Convenience surveys recruit larger samples of MSM but tend to over-represent MSM identifying as gay and reporting more sexual risk behaviours. Because both sampling strategies have strengths and weaknesses, methods are needed to triangulate data from probability and convenience surveys. PMID:26965869

  5. Sample size reduction in groundwater surveys via sparse data assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Hussain, Z.; Muhammad, A.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we focus on sparse signal recovery methods for data assimilation in groundwater models. The objective of this work is to exploit the commonly understood spatial sparsity in hydrodynamic models and thereby reduce the number of measurements to image a dynamic groundwater profile. To achieve this we employ a Bayesian compressive sensing framework that lets us adaptively select the next measurement to reduce the estimation error. An extension to the Bayesian compressive sensing framework is also proposed which incorporates the additional model information to estimate system states from even lesser measurements. Instead of using cumulative imaging-like measurements, such as those used in standard compressive sensing, we use sparse binary matrices. This choice of measurements can be interpreted as randomly sampling only a small subset of dug wells at each time step, instead of sampling the entire grid. Therefore, this framework offers groundwater surveyors a significant reduction in surveying effort without compromising the quality of the survey. © 2013 IEEE.

  6. Sample size reduction in groundwater surveys via sparse data assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Hussain, Z.

    2013-04-01

    In this paper, we focus on sparse signal recovery methods for data assimilation in groundwater models. The objective of this work is to exploit the commonly understood spatial sparsity in hydrodynamic models and thereby reduce the number of measurements to image a dynamic groundwater profile. To achieve this we employ a Bayesian compressive sensing framework that lets us adaptively select the next measurement to reduce the estimation error. An extension to the Bayesian compressive sensing framework is also proposed which incorporates the additional model information to estimate system states from even lesser measurements. Instead of using cumulative imaging-like measurements, such as those used in standard compressive sensing, we use sparse binary matrices. This choice of measurements can be interpreted as randomly sampling only a small subset of dug wells at each time step, instead of sampling the entire grid. Therefore, this framework offers groundwater surveyors a significant reduction in surveying effort without compromising the quality of the survey. © 2013 IEEE.

  7. Estimating 137Cs ingestion doses to Saamis in Kautokeino (Norway) using whole body counting vs. dietary survey results and food samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skuterud, L.; Bergan, T.; Mehli, H.

    2002-01-01

    From 1965 to 1990 whole body measurements were carried out on an annual basis. Since then, 3-year cycles have been followed. In most years, the reindeer keepers have provided samples of reindeer meat for radiocaesium analysis. In 1989-1990 and 1999 dietary surveys were performed in conjunction with the whole-body monitoring. Earlier diet information is available from a separate study in 1963. Rough estimates of the radiocaesium intake by the studied population in Kautokeino have indicated that the dietary surveys have overestimated the radiocaesium intake. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the available information from Kautokeino, and to derive some conclusions regarding the reindeer meat consumption by today's reindeer keepers, and what 137 Cs ingestion doses they are exposed to. (LN)

  8. Men who have sex with men in Great Britain: comparing methods and estimates from probability and convenience sample surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prah, Philip; Hickson, Ford; Bonell, Chris; McDaid, Lisa M; Johnson, Anne M; Wayal, Sonali; Clifton, Soazig; Sonnenberg, Pam; Nardone, Anthony; Erens, Bob; Copas, Andrew J; Riddell, Julie; Weatherburn, Peter; Mercer, Catherine H

    2016-09-01

    To examine sociodemographic and behavioural differences between men who have sex with men (MSM) participating in recent UK convenience surveys and a national probability sample survey. We compared 148 MSM aged 18-64 years interviewed for Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) undertaken in 2010-2012, with men in the same age range participating in contemporaneous convenience surveys of MSM: 15 500 British resident men in the European MSM Internet Survey (EMIS); 797 in the London Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey; and 1234 in Scotland's Gay Men's Sexual Health Survey. Analyses compared men reporting at least one male sexual partner (past year) on similarly worded questions and multivariable analyses accounted for sociodemographic differences between the surveys. MSM in convenience surveys were younger and better educated than MSM in Natsal-3, and a larger proportion identified as gay (85%-95% vs 62%). Partner numbers were higher and same-sex anal sex more common in convenience surveys. Unprotected anal intercourse was more commonly reported in EMIS. Compared with Natsal-3, MSM in convenience surveys were more likely to report gonorrhoea diagnoses and HIV testing (both past year). Differences between the samples were reduced when restricting analysis to gay-identifying MSM. National probability surveys better reflect the population of MSM but are limited by their smaller samples of MSM. Convenience surveys recruit larger samples of MSM but tend to over-represent MSM identifying as gay and reporting more sexual risk behaviours. Because both sampling strategies have strengths and weaknesses, methods are needed to triangulate data from probability and convenience surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  9. Generating Health Estimates by Zip Code: A Semiparametric Small Area Estimation Approach Using the California Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yueyan; Ponce, Ninez A; Wang, Pan; Opsomer, Jean D; Yu, Hongjian

    2015-12-01

    We propose a method to meet challenges in generating health estimates for granular geographic areas in which the survey sample size is extremely small. Our generalized linear mixed model predicts health outcomes using both individual-level and neighborhood-level predictors. The model's feature of nonparametric smoothing function on neighborhood-level variables better captures the association between neighborhood environment and the outcome. Using 2011 to 2012 data from the California Health Interview Survey, we demonstrate an empirical application of this method to estimate the fraction of residents without health insurance for Zip Code Tabulation Areas (ZCTAs). Our method generated stable estimates of uninsurance for 1519 of 1765 ZCTAs (86%) in California. For some areas with great socioeconomic diversity across adjacent neighborhoods, such as Los Angeles County, the modeled uninsured estimates revealed much heterogeneity among geographically adjacent ZCTAs. The proposed method can increase the value of health surveys by providing modeled estimates for health data at a granular geographic level. It can account for variations in health outcomes at the neighborhood level as a result of both socioeconomic characteristics and geographic locations.

  10. ESTIMATING PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS OF QUASARS VIA THE k-NEAREST NEIGHBOR APPROACH BASED ON LARGE SURVEY DATABASES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Yanxia; Ma He; Peng Nanbo; Zhao Yongheng [Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100012 Beijing (China); Wu Xuebing, E-mail: zyx@bao.ac.cn [Department of Astronomy, Peking University, 100871 Beijing (China)

    2013-08-01

    We apply one of the lazy learning methods, the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) algorithm, to estimate the photometric redshifts of quasars based on various data sets from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS), and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE; the SDSS sample, the SDSS-UKIDSS sample, the SDSS-WISE sample, and the SDSS-UKIDSS-WISE sample). The influence of the k value and different input patterns on the performance of kNN is discussed. kNN performs best when k is different with a special input pattern for a special data set. The best result belongs to the SDSS-UKIDSS-WISE sample. The experimental results generally show that the more information from more bands, the better performance of photometric redshift estimation with kNN. The results also demonstrate that kNN using multiband data can effectively solve the catastrophic failure of photometric redshift estimation, which is met by many machine learning methods. Compared with the performance of various other methods of estimating the photometric redshifts of quasars, kNN based on KD-Tree shows superiority, exhibiting the best accuracy.

  11. ESTIMATING PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS OF QUASARS VIA THE k-NEAREST NEIGHBOR APPROACH BASED ON LARGE SURVEY DATABASES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yanxia; Ma He; Peng Nanbo; Zhao Yongheng; Wu Xuebing

    2013-01-01

    We apply one of the lazy learning methods, the k-nearest neighbor (kNN) algorithm, to estimate the photometric redshifts of quasars based on various data sets from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey (UKIDSS), and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE; the SDSS sample, the SDSS-UKIDSS sample, the SDSS-WISE sample, and the SDSS-UKIDSS-WISE sample). The influence of the k value and different input patterns on the performance of kNN is discussed. kNN performs best when k is different with a special input pattern for a special data set. The best result belongs to the SDSS-UKIDSS-WISE sample. The experimental results generally show that the more information from more bands, the better performance of photometric redshift estimation with kNN. The results also demonstrate that kNN using multiband data can effectively solve the catastrophic failure of photometric redshift estimation, which is met by many machine learning methods. Compared with the performance of various other methods of estimating the photometric redshifts of quasars, kNN based on KD-Tree shows superiority, exhibiting the best accuracy.

  12. Galaxy redshift surveys with sparse sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiang, Chi-Ting; Wullstein, Philipp; Komatsu, Eiichiro; Jee, Inh; Jeong, Donghui; Blanc, Guillermo A.; Ciardullo, Robin; Gronwall, Caryl; Hagen, Alex; Schneider, Donald P.; Drory, Niv; Fabricius, Maximilian; Landriau, Martin; Finkelstein, Steven; Jogee, Shardha; Cooper, Erin Mentuch; Tuttle, Sarah; Gebhardt, Karl; Hill, Gary J.

    2013-01-01

    Survey observations of the three-dimensional locations of galaxies are a powerful approach to measure the distribution of matter in the universe, which can be used to learn about the nature of dark energy, physics of inflation, neutrino masses, etc. A competitive survey, however, requires a large volume (e.g., V survey ∼ 10Gpc 3 ) to be covered, and thus tends to be expensive. A ''sparse sampling'' method offers a more affordable solution to this problem: within a survey footprint covering a given survey volume, V survey , we observe only a fraction of the volume. The distribution of observed regions should be chosen such that their separation is smaller than the length scale corresponding to the wavenumber of interest. Then one can recover the power spectrum of galaxies with precision expected for a survey covering a volume of V survey (rather than the volume of the sum of observed regions) with the number density of galaxies given by the total number of observed galaxies divided by V survey (rather than the number density of galaxies within an observed region). We find that regularly-spaced sampling yields an unbiased power spectrum with no window function effect, and deviations from regularly-spaced sampling, which are unavoidable in realistic surveys, introduce calculable window function effects and increase the uncertainties of the recovered power spectrum. On the other hand, we show that the two-point correlation function (pair counting) is not affected by sparse sampling. While we discuss the sparse sampling method within the context of the forthcoming Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment, the method is general and can be applied to other galaxy surveys

  13. Analyzing Repeated Measures Marginal Models on Sample Surveys with Resampling Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Knoke

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Packaged statistical software for analyzing categorical, repeated measures marginal models on sample survey data with binary covariates does not appear to be available. Consequently, this report describes a customized SAS program which accomplishes such an analysis on survey data with jackknifed replicate weights for which the primary sampling unit information has been suppressed for respondent confidentiality. First, the program employs the Macro Language and the Output Delivery System (ODS to estimate the means and covariances of indicator variables for the response variables, taking the design into account. Then, it uses PROC CATMOD and ODS, ignoring the survey design, to obtain the design matrix and hypothesis test specifications. Finally, it enters these results into another run of CATMOD, which performs automated direct input of the survey design specifications and accomplishes the appropriate analysis. This customized SAS program can be employed, with minor editing, to analyze general categorical, repeated measures marginal models on sample surveys with replicate weights. Finally, the results of our analysis accounting for the survey design are compared to the results of two alternate analyses of the same data. This comparison confirms that such alternate analyses, which do not properly account for the design, do not produce useful results.

  14. Insights from Machine Learning for Evaluating Production Function Estimators on Manufacturing Survey Data

    OpenAIRE

    Arreola, José Luis Preciado; Johnson, Andrew L.

    2016-01-01

    Organizations like census bureaus rely on non-exhaustive surveys to estimate industry population-level production functions. In this paper we propose selecting an estimator based on a weighting of its in-sample and predictive performance on actual application datasets. We compare Cobb-Douglas functional assumptions to existing nonparametric shape constrained estimators and a newly proposed estimated presented in this paper. For simulated data, we find that our proposed estimator has the lowes...

  15. Sampling and estimating recreational use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timothy G. Gregoire; Gregory J. Buhyoff

    1999-01-01

    Probability sampling methods applicable to estimate recreational use are presented. Both single- and multiple-access recreation sites are considered. One- and two-stage sampling methods are presented. Estimation of recreational use is presented in a series of examples.

  16. Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using equivalent-time sampling

    KAUST Repository

    Ballal, Tarig

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation is proposed. The scheme exploits multiple observations generated by transmitting multiple pulses. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC samples at a rate that is P times slower. To avoid loss of fidelity, the number of sampling periods (based on the desired rate) in the inter-pulse interval is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this case, and to achieve an overall good channel estimation performance, without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. It is shown that this estimator is related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. Channel estimation performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme combined with the new estimator is assessed in simulation. The results show that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in almost all cases, while in the high SNR regime it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. In addition to channel estimation, a synchronization method is also proposed that utilizes the same pulse sequence used for channel estimation. © 2014 IEEE.

  17. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  18. The impact of the mode of survey administration on estimates of daily smoking for mobile phone only users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Hanna

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the past decade, there have been substantial changes in landline and mobile phone ownership, with a substantial increase in the proportion of mobile-only households. Estimates of daily smoking rates for the mobile phone only (MPO population have been found to be substantially higher than the rest of the population and telephone surveys that use a dual sampling frame (landline and mobile phones are now considered best practice. Smoking is seen as an undesirable behaviour; measuring such behaviours using an interviewer may lead to lower estimates when using telephone based surveys compared to self-administered approaches. This study aims to assess whether higher daily smoking estimates observed for the mobile phone only population can be explained by administrative features of surveys, after accounting for differences in the phone ownership population groups. Methods Data on New South Wales (NSW residents aged 18 years or older from the NSW Population Health Survey (PHS, a telephone survey, and the National Drug Strategy Household Survey (NDSHS, a self-administered survey, were combined, with weights adjusted to match the 2013 population. Design-adjusted prevalence estimates and odds ratios were calculated using survey analysis procedures available in SAS 9.4. Results Both the PHS and NDSHS gave the same estimates for daily smoking (12% and similar estimates for MPO users (20% and 18% respectively. Pooled data showed that daily smoking was 19% for MPO users, compared to 10% for dual phone owners, and 12% for landline phone only users. Prevalence estimates for MPO users across both surveys were consistently higher than other phone ownership groups. Differences in estimates for the MPO population compared to other phone ownership groups persisted even after adjustment for the mode of collection and demographic factors. Conclusions Daily smoking rates were consistently higher for the mobile phone only population and this was

  19. Effect of survey design and catch rate estimation on total catch estimates in Chinook salmon fisheries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael C.; Schill, Daniel J.

    2012-01-01

    Roving–roving and roving–access creel surveys are the primary techniques used to obtain information on harvest of Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in Idaho sport fisheries. Once interviews are conducted using roving–roving or roving–access survey designs, mean catch rate can be estimated with the ratio-of-means (ROM) estimator, the mean-of-ratios (MOR) estimator, or the MOR estimator with exclusion of short-duration (≤0.5 h) trips. Our objective was to examine the relative bias and precision of total catch estimates obtained from use of the two survey designs and three catch rate estimators for Idaho Chinook salmon fisheries. Information on angling populations was obtained by direct visual observation of portions of Chinook salmon fisheries in three Idaho river systems over an 18-d period. Based on data from the angling populations, Monte Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the properties of the catch rate estimators and survey designs. Among the three estimators, the ROM estimator provided the most accurate and precise estimates of mean catch rate and total catch for both roving–roving and roving–access surveys. On average, the root mean square error of simulated total catch estimates was 1.42 times greater and relative bias was 160.13 times greater for roving–roving surveys than for roving–access surveys. Length-of-stay bias and nonstationary catch rates in roving–roving surveys both appeared to affect catch rate and total catch estimates. Our results suggest that use of the ROM estimator in combination with an estimate of angler effort provided the least biased and most precise estimates of total catch for both survey designs. However, roving–access surveys were more accurate than roving–roving surveys for Chinook salmon fisheries in Idaho.

  20. [Study of spatial stratified sampling strategy of Oncomelania hupensis snail survey based on plant abundance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xun-Ping, W; An, Z

    2017-07-27

    Objective To optimize and simplify the survey method of Oncomelania hupensis snails in marshland endemic regions of schistosomiasis, so as to improve the precision, efficiency and economy of the snail survey. Methods A snail sampling strategy (Spatial Sampling Scenario of Oncomelania based on Plant Abundance, SOPA) which took the plant abundance as auxiliary variable was explored and an experimental study in a 50 m×50 m plot in a marshland in the Poyang Lake region was performed. Firstly, the push broom surveyed data was stratified into 5 layers by the plant abundance data; then, the required numbers of optimal sampling points of each layer through Hammond McCullagh equation were calculated; thirdly, every sample point in the line with the Multiple Directional Interpolation (MDI) placement scheme was pinpointed; and finally, the comparison study among the outcomes of the spatial random sampling strategy, the traditional systematic sampling method, the spatial stratified sampling method, Sandwich spatial sampling and inference and SOPA was performed. Results The method (SOPA) proposed in this study had the minimal absolute error of 0.213 8; and the traditional systematic sampling method had the largest estimate, and the absolute error was 0.924 4. Conclusion The snail sampling strategy (SOPA) proposed in this study obtains the higher estimation accuracy than the other four methods.

  1. Spatially explicit population estimates for black bears based on cluster sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humm, J.; McCown, J. Walter; Scheick, B.K.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2017-01-01

    We estimated abundance and density of the 5 major black bear (Ursus americanus) subpopulations (i.e., Eglin, Apalachicola, Osceola, Ocala-St. Johns, Big Cypress) in Florida, USA with spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture (SCR) by extracting DNA from hair samples collected at barbed-wire hair sampling sites. We employed a clustered sampling configuration with sampling sites arranged in 3 × 3 clusters spaced 2 km apart within each cluster and cluster centers spaced 16 km apart (center to center). We surveyed all 5 subpopulations encompassing 38,960 km2 during 2014 and 2015. Several landscape variables, most associated with forest cover, helped refine density estimates for the 5 subpopulations we sampled. Detection probabilities were affected by site-specific behavioral responses coupled with individual capture heterogeneity associated with sex. Model-averaged bear population estimates ranged from 120 (95% CI = 59–276) bears or a mean 0.025 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.011–0.44) for the Eglin subpopulation to 1,198 bears (95% CI = 949–1,537) or 0.127 bears/km2 (95% CI = 0.101–0.163) for the Ocala-St. Johns subpopulation. The total population estimate for our 5 study areas was 3,916 bears (95% CI = 2,914–5,451). The clustered sampling method coupled with information on land cover was efficient and allowed us to estimate abundance across extensive areas that would not have been possible otherwise. Clustered sampling combined with spatially explicit capture-recapture methods has the potential to provide rigorous population estimates for a wide array of species that are extensive and heterogeneous in their distribution.

  2. Using mark-recapture distance sampling methods on line transect surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, Louise M.; Borchers, David L.; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Marques, Tigao A

    2014-01-01

    Mark–recapture distance sampling (MRDS) methods are widely used for density and abundance estimation when the conventional DS assumption of certain detection at distance zero fails, as they allow detection at distance zero to be estimated and incorporated into the overall probability of detection to better estimate density and abundance. However, incorporating MR data in DS models raises survey and analysis issues not present in conventional DS. Conversely, incorporating DS assumptions in MR models raises issues not present in conventional MR. As a result, being familiar with either conventional DS methods or conventional MR methods does not on its own put practitioners in good a position to apply MRDS methods appropriately. This study explains the sometimes subtly different varieties of MRDS survey methods and the associated concepts underlying MRDS models. This is done as far as possible without giving mathematical details – in the hope that this will make the key concepts underlying the methods accessible to a wider audience than if we were to present the concepts via equations.

  3. Aerial surveys adjusted by ground surveys to estimate area occupied by black-tailed prairie dog colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidle, John G.; Augustine, David J.; Johnson, Douglas H.; Miller, Sterling D.; Cully, Jack F.; Reading, Richard P.

    2012-01-01

    Aerial surveys using line-intercept methods are one approach to estimate the extent of prairie dog colonies in a large geographic area. Although black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) construct conspicuous mounds at burrow openings, aerial observers have difficulty discriminating between areas with burrows occupied by prairie dogs (colonies) versus areas of uninhabited burrows (uninhabited colony sites). Consequently, aerial line-intercept surveys may overestimate prairie dog colony extent unless adjusted by an on-the-ground inspection of a sample of intercepts. We compared aerial line-intercept surveys conducted over 2 National Grasslands in Colorado, USA, with independent ground-mapping of known black-tailed prairie dog colonies. Aerial line-intercepts adjusted by ground surveys using a single activity category adjustment overestimated colonies by ≥94% on the Comanche National Grassland and ≥58% on the Pawnee National Grassland. We present a ground-survey technique that involves 1) visiting on the ground a subset of aerial intercepts classified as occupied colonies plus a subset of intercepts classified as uninhabited colony sites, and 2) based on these ground observations, recording the proportion of each aerial intercept that intersects a colony and the proportion that intersects an uninhabited colony site. Where line-intercept techniques are applied to aerial surveys or remotely sensed imagery, this method can provide more accurate estimates of black-tailed prairie dog abundance and trends

  4. Basin Visual Estimation Technique (BVET) and Representative Reach Approaches to Wadeable Stream Surveys: Methodological Limitations and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lance R. Williams; Melvin L. Warren; Susan B. Adams; Joseph L. Arvai; Christopher M. Taylor

    2004-01-01

    Basin Visual Estimation Techniques (BVET) are used to estimate abundance for fish populations in small streams. With BVET, independent samples are drawn from natural habitat units in the stream rather than sampling "representative reaches." This sampling protocol provides an alternative to traditional reach-level surveys, which are criticized for their lack...

  5. Sample size estimation and sampling techniques for selecting a representative sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aamir Omair

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this article is to provide a general understanding of the concepts of sampling as applied to health-related research. Sample Size Estimation: It is important to select a representative sample in quantitative research in order to be able to generalize the results to the target population. The sample should be of the required sample size and must be selected using an appropriate probability sampling technique. There are many hidden biases which can adversely affect the outcome of the study. Important factors to consider for estimating the sample size include the size of the study population, confidence level, expected proportion of the outcome variable (for categorical variables/standard deviation of the outcome variable (for numerical variables, and the required precision (margin of accuracy from the study. The more the precision required, the greater is the required sample size. Sampling Techniques: The probability sampling techniques applied for health related research include simple random sampling, systematic random sampling, stratified random sampling, cluster sampling, and multistage sampling. These are more recommended than the nonprobability sampling techniques, because the results of the study can be generalized to the target population.

  6. The economic impact of poor sample quality in clinical chemistry laboratories: results from a global survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdal, Erik P; Mitra, Debanjali; Khangulov, Victor S; Church, Stephen; Plokhoy, Elizabeth

    2017-03-01

    Background Despite advances in clinical chemistry testing, poor blood sample quality continues to impact laboratory operations and the quality of results. While previous studies have identified the preanalytical causes of lower sample quality, few studies have examined the economic impact of poor sample quality on the laboratory. Specifically, the costs associated with workarounds related to fibrin and gel contaminants remain largely unexplored. Methods A quantitative survey of clinical chemistry laboratory stakeholders across 10 international regions, including countries in North America, Europe and Oceania, was conducted to examine current blood sample testing practices, sample quality issues and practices to remediate poor sample quality. Survey data were used to estimate costs incurred by laboratories to mitigate sample quality issues. Results Responses from 164 participants were included in the analysis, which was focused on three specific issues: fibrin strands, fibrin masses and gel globules. Fibrin strands were the most commonly reported issue, with an overall incidence rate of ∼3%. Further, 65% of respondents indicated that these issues contribute to analyzer probe clogging, and the majority of laboratories had visual inspection and manual remediation practices in place to address fibrin- and gel-related quality problems (55% and 70%, respectively). Probe maintenance/replacement, visual inspection and manual remediation were estimated to carry significant costs for the laboratories surveyed. Annual cost associated with lower sample quality and remediation related to fibrin and/or gel globules for an average US laboratory was estimated to be $100,247. Conclusions Measures to improve blood sample quality present an important step towards improved laboratory operations.

  7. National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses (NSSRN) Download makes data from the survey readily available to users in a one-stop download. The Survey has been...

  8. Estimating population salt intake in India using spot urine samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Kristina S; Johnson, Claire; Mohan, Sailesh; Rogers, Kris; Shivashankar, Roopa; Thout, Sudhir Raj; Gupta, Priti; He, Feng J; MacGregor, Graham A; Webster, Jacqui; Santos, Joseph Alvin; Krishnan, Anand; Maulik, Pallab K; Reddy, K Srinath; Gupta, Ruby; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Neal, Bruce

    2017-11-01

    To compare estimates of mean population salt intake in North and South India derived from spot urine samples versus 24-h urine collections. In a cross-sectional survey, participants were sampled from slum, urban and rural communities in North and in South India. Participants provided 24-h urine collections, and random morning spot urine samples. Salt intake was estimated from the spot urine samples using a series of established estimating equations. Salt intake data from the 24-h urine collections and spot urine equations were weighted to provide estimates of salt intake for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh. A total of 957 individuals provided a complete 24-h urine collection and a spot urine sample. Weighted mean salt intake based on the 24-h urine collection, was 8.59 (95% confidence interval 7.73-9.45) and 9.46 g/day (8.95-9.96) in Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively. Corresponding estimates based on the Tanaka equation [9.04 (8.63-9.45) and 9.79 g/day (9.62-9.96) for Delhi and Haryana, and Andhra Pradesh, respectively], the Mage equation [8.80 (7.67-9.94) and 10.19 g/day (95% CI 9.59-10.79)], the INTERSALT equation [7.99 (7.61-8.37) and 8.64 g/day (8.04-9.23)] and the INTERSALT equation with potassium [8.13 (7.74-8.52) and 8.81 g/day (8.16-9.46)] were all within 1 g/day of the estimate based upon 24-h collections. For the Toft equation, estimates were 1-2 g/day higher [9.94 (9.24-10.64) and 10.69 g/day (9.44-11.93)] and for the Kawasaki equation they were 3-4 g/day higher [12.14 (11.30-12.97) and 13.64 g/day (13.15-14.12)]. In urban and rural areas in North and South India, most spot urine-based equations provided reasonable estimates of mean population salt intake. Equations that did not provide good estimates may have failed because specimen collection was not aligned with the original method.

  9. Performance of small cluster surveys and the clustered LQAS design to estimate local-level vaccination coverage in Mali.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minetti, Andrea; Riera-Montes, Margarita; Nackers, Fabienne; Roederer, Thomas; Koudika, Marie Hortense; Sekkenes, Johanne; Taconet, Aurore; Fermon, Florence; Touré, Albouhary; Grais, Rebecca F; Checchi, Francesco

    2012-10-12

    Estimation of vaccination coverage at the local level is essential to identify communities that may require additional support. Cluster surveys can be used in resource-poor settings, when population figures are inaccurate. To be feasible, cluster samples need to be small, without losing robustness of results. The clustered LQAS (CLQAS) approach has been proposed as an alternative, as smaller sample sizes are required. We explored (i) the efficiency of cluster surveys of decreasing sample size through bootstrapping analysis and (ii) the performance of CLQAS under three alternative sampling plans to classify local VC, using data from a survey carried out in Mali after mass vaccination against meningococcal meningitis group A. VC estimates provided by a 10 × 15 cluster survey design were reasonably robust. We used them to classify health areas in three categories and guide mop-up activities: i) health areas not requiring supplemental activities; ii) health areas requiring additional vaccination; iii) health areas requiring further evaluation. As sample size decreased (from 10 × 15 to 10 × 3), standard error of VC and ICC estimates were increasingly unstable. Results of CLQAS simulations were not accurate for most health areas, with an overall risk of misclassification greater than 0.25 in one health area out of three. It was greater than 0.50 in one health area out of two under two of the three sampling plans. Small sample cluster surveys (10 × 15) are acceptably robust for classification of VC at local level. We do not recommend the CLQAS method as currently formulated for evaluating vaccination programmes.

  10. Using Linked Survey Paradata to Improve Sampling Strategies in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirel Lisa B.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Using paradata from a prior survey that is linked to a new survey can help a survey organization develop more effective sampling strategies. One example of this type of linkage or subsampling is between the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS. MEPS is a nationally representative sample of the U.S. civilian, noninstitutionalized population based on a complex multi-stage sample design. Each year a new sample is drawn as a subsample of households from the prior year’s NHIS. The main objective of this article is to examine how paradata from a prior survey can be used in developing a sampling scheme in a subsequent survey. A framework for optimal allocation of the sample in substrata formed for this purpose is presented and evaluated for the relative effectiveness of alternative substratification schemes. The framework is applied, using real MEPS data, to illustrate how utilizing paradata from the linked survey offers the possibility of making improvements to the sampling scheme for the subsequent survey. The improvements aim to reduce the data collection costs while maintaining or increasing effective responding sample sizes and response rates for a harder to reach population.

  11. The rise of survey sampling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bethlehem, J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper is about the history of survey sampling. It describes how sampling became an accepted scientific method. From the first ideas in 1895 it took some 50 years before the principles of probability sampling were widely accepted. This papers has a focus on developments in official statistics in

  12. Comparing cancer screening estimates: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Ann Goding; Liu, Benmei; Siegel, Rebecca L; Jemal, Ahmedin; Fedewa, Stacey A

    2018-01-01

    Cancer screening prevalence from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), designed to provide state-level estimates, and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), designed to provide national estimates, are used to measure progress in cancer control. A detailed description of the extent to which recent cancer screening estimates vary by key demographic characteristics has not been previously described. We examined national prevalence estimates for recommended breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening using data from the 2012 and 2014 BRFSS and the 2010 and 2013 NHIS. Treating the NHIS estimates as the reference, direct differences (DD) were calculated by subtracting NHIS estimates from BRFSS estimates. Relative differences were computed by dividing the DD by the NHIS estimates. Two-sample t-tests (2-tails), were performed to test for statistically significant differences. BRFSS screening estimates were higher than those from NHIS for breast (78.4% versus 72.5%; DD=5.9%, pNHIS, each survey has a unique and important role in providing information to track cancer screening utilization among various populations. Awareness of these differences and their potential causes is important when comparing the surveys and determining the best application for each data source. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Performance of small cluster surveys and the clustered LQAS design to estimate local-level vaccination coverage in Mali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minetti Andrea

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of vaccination coverage at the local level is essential to identify communities that may require additional support. Cluster surveys can be used in resource-poor settings, when population figures are inaccurate. To be feasible, cluster samples need to be small, without losing robustness of results. The clustered LQAS (CLQAS approach has been proposed as an alternative, as smaller sample sizes are required. Methods We explored (i the efficiency of cluster surveys of decreasing sample size through bootstrapping analysis and (ii the performance of CLQAS under three alternative sampling plans to classify local VC, using data from a survey carried out in Mali after mass vaccination against meningococcal meningitis group A. Results VC estimates provided by a 10 × 15 cluster survey design were reasonably robust. We used them to classify health areas in three categories and guide mop-up activities: i health areas not requiring supplemental activities; ii health areas requiring additional vaccination; iii health areas requiring further evaluation. As sample size decreased (from 10 × 15 to 10 × 3, standard error of VC and ICC estimates were increasingly unstable. Results of CLQAS simulations were not accurate for most health areas, with an overall risk of misclassification greater than 0.25 in one health area out of three. It was greater than 0.50 in one health area out of two under two of the three sampling plans. Conclusions Small sample cluster surveys (10 × 15 are acceptably robust for classification of VC at local level. We do not recommend the CLQAS method as currently formulated for evaluating vaccination programmes.

  14. Optimum strata boundaries and sample sizes in health surveys using auxiliary variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Karuna Garan; Khan, Mohammad G M; Khan, Sabiha

    2018-01-01

    Using convenient stratification criteria such as geographical regions or other natural conditions like age, gender, etc., is not beneficial in order to maximize the precision of the estimates of variables of interest. Thus, one has to look for an efficient stratification design to divide the whole population into homogeneous strata that achieves higher precision in the estimation. In this paper, a procedure for determining Optimum Stratum Boundaries (OSB) and Optimum Sample Sizes (OSS) for each stratum of a variable of interest in health surveys is developed. The determination of OSB and OSS based on the study variable is not feasible in practice since the study variable is not available prior to the survey. Since many variables in health surveys are generally skewed, the proposed technique considers the readily-available auxiliary variables to determine the OSB and OSS. This stratification problem is formulated into a Mathematical Programming Problem (MPP) that seeks minimization of the variance of the estimated population parameter under Neyman allocation. It is then solved for the OSB by using a dynamic programming (DP) technique. A numerical example with a real data set of a population, aiming to estimate the Haemoglobin content in women in a national Iron Deficiency Anaemia survey, is presented to illustrate the procedure developed in this paper. Upon comparisons with other methods available in literature, results reveal that the proposed approach yields a substantial gain in efficiency over the other methods. A simulation study also reveals similar results.

  15. Nonprobability Web Surveys to Measure Sexual Behaviors and Attitudes in the General Population: A Comparison With a Probability Sample Interview Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkill, Sarah; Couper, Mick P; Conrad, Frederick; Clifton, Soazig; Tanton, Clare; Phelps, Andrew; Datta, Jessica; Mercer, Catherine H; Sonnenberg, Pam; Prah, Philip; Mitchell, Kirstin R; Wellings, Kaye; Johnson, Anne M; Copas, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    Background Nonprobability Web surveys using volunteer panels can provide a relatively cheap and quick alternative to traditional health and epidemiological surveys. However, concerns have been raised about their representativeness. Objective The aim was to compare results from different Web panels with a population-based probability sample survey (n=8969 aged 18-44 years) that used computer-assisted self-interview (CASI) for sensitive behaviors, the third British National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3). Methods Natsal-3 questions were included on 4 nonprobability Web panel surveys (n=2000 to 2099), 2 using basic quotas based on age and sex, and 2 using modified quotas based on additional variables related to key estimates. Results for sociodemographic characteristics were compared with external benchmarks and for sexual behaviors and opinions with Natsal-3. Odds ratios (ORs) were used to express differences between the benchmark data and each survey for each variable of interest. A summary measure of survey performance was the average absolute OR across variables. Another summary measure was the number of key estimates for which the survey differed significantly (at the 5% level) from the benchmarks. Results For sociodemographic variables, the Web surveys were less representative of the general population than Natsal-3. For example, for men, the average absolute OR for Natsal-3 was 1.14, whereas for the Web surveys the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.86 to 2.30. For all Web surveys, approximately two-thirds of the key estimates of sexual behaviors were different from Natsal-3 and the average absolute ORs ranged from 1.32 to 1.98. Differences were appreciable even for questions asked by CASI in Natsal-3. No single Web survey performed consistently better than any other did. Modified quotas slightly improved results for men, but not for women. Conclusions Consistent with studies from other countries on less sensitive topics, volunteer Web

  16. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense trypanosomiasis in Terego county, northern Uganda, 1996: a lot quality assurance sampling survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutin, Yvan J F; Legros, Dominique; Owini, Vincent; Brown, Vincent; Lee, Evan; Mbulamberi, Dawson; Paquet, Christophe

    2004-04-01

    We estimated the pre-intervention prevalence of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (Tbg) trypanosomiasis using the lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methods in 14 parishes of Terego County in northern Uganda. A total of 826 participants were included in the survey sample in 1996. The prevalence of laboratory confirmed Tbg trypanosomiasis adjusted for parish population sizes was 2.2% (95% confidence interval =1.1-3.2). This estimate was consistent with the 1.1% period prevalence calculated on the basis of cases identified through passive and active screening in 1996-1999. Ranking of parishes in four categories according to LQAS analysis of the 1996 survey predicted the prevalences observed during the first round of active screening in the population in 1997-1998 (P LQAS were validated by the results of the population screening, suggesting that these survey methods may be useful in the pre-intervention phase of sleeping sickness control programs.

  17. Men who have sex with men in Great Britain: comparing methods and estimates from probability and convenience sample surveys

    OpenAIRE

    Prah, Philip; Hickson, Ford; Bonell, Chris; McDaid, Lisa M; Johnson, Anne M; Wayal, Sonali; Clifton, Soazig; Sonnenberg, Pam; Nardone, Anthony; Erens, Bob; Copas, Andrew J; Riddell, Julie; Weatherburn, Peter; Mercer, Catherine H

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To examine sociodemographic and behavioural differences between men whohave sex with men (MSM) participating in recent UK convenience surveys and a national probability sample survey.\\ud Methods: We compared 148 MSM aged 18–64 years interviewed for Britain's third National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (Natsal-3) undertaken in 2010–2012, with men inthe same age range participating in contemporaneous convenience surveys of MSM: 15 500 British resident men in the European...

  18. Sampling guidelines for oral fluid-based surveys of group-housed animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotolo, Marisa L; Sun, Yaxuan; Wang, Chong; Giménez-Lirola, Luis; Baum, David H; Gauger, Phillip C; Harmon, Karen M; Hoogland, Marlin; Main, Rodger; Zimmerman, Jeffrey J

    2017-09-01

    Formulas and software for calculating sample size for surveys based on individual animal samples are readily available. However, sample size formulas are not available for oral fluids and other aggregate samples that are increasingly used in production settings. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop sampling guidelines for oral fluid-based porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) surveys in commercial swine farms. Oral fluid samples were collected in 9 weekly samplings from all pens in 3 barns on one production site beginning shortly after placement of weaned pigs. Samples (n=972) were tested by real-time reverse-transcription PCR (RT-rtPCR) and the binary results analyzed using a piecewise exponential survival model for interval-censored, time-to-event data with misclassification. Thereafter, simulation studies were used to study the barn-level probability of PRRSV detection as a function of sample size, sample allocation (simple random sampling vs fixed spatial sampling), assay diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, and pen-level prevalence. These studies provided estimates of the probability of detection by sample size and within-barn prevalence. Detection using fixed spatial sampling was as good as, or better than, simple random sampling. Sampling multiple barns on a site increased the probability of detection with the number of barns sampled. These results are relevant to PRRSV control or elimination projects at the herd, regional, or national levels, but the results are also broadly applicable to contagious pathogens of swine for which oral fluid tests of equivalent performance are available. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Sample survey methods as a quality assurance tool in a general practice immunisation audit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, R

    1994-04-27

    In a multidoctor family practice there are often just too many sets of patients records to make it practical to repeat an audit by census of even an age band of the practice on a regular basis. This paper attempts to demonstrate how sample survey methodology can be incorporated into the quality assurance cycle. A simple random sample (with replacement) of 120 from 580 children with permanent records who were aged between 6 weeks and 2 years old from an Auckland general practice was performed, with sample size selected to give a predetermined precision. The survey was then repeated after 4 weeks. Both surveys were able to be completed within the course of a normal working day. An unexpectedly low level of under 2 years olds that were recorded as not overdue for any immunisations was found (22.5%) with only a modest improvement after a standard telephone/letter catch up campaign. Seventy-two percent of the sample held a group one community services card. The advantages of properly conducted sample surveys in producing useful estimates of known precision without disrupting office routines excessively were demonstrated. Through some attention to methodology, the trauma of a practice census can be avoided.

  20. Statistical literacy and sample survey results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAlevey, Lynn; Sullivan, Charles

    2010-10-01

    Sample surveys are widely used in the social sciences and business. The news media almost daily quote from them, yet they are widely misused. Using students with prior managerial experience embarking on an MBA course, we show that common sample survey results are misunderstood even by those managers who have previously done a statistics course. In general, they fare no better than managers who have never studied statistics. There are implications for teaching, especially in business schools, as well as for consulting.

  1. Coded-Wire Tag Expansion Factors for Chinook Salmon Carcass Surveys in California: Estimating the Numbers and Proportions of Hatchery-Origin Fish

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Mohr

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Recovery of fish with adipose fin clips (adc and coded-wire tags (cwt in escapement surveys allows calculation of expansion factors used in estimation of the total number of fish from each adc,cwt release group, allowing escapement to be resolved by age and stock of origin. Expanded recoveries are used to derive important estimates such as the total number and proportion of hatchery-origin fish present. The standard estimation scheme assumes accurate visual classification of adc status, which can be problematic for decomposing carcasses. Failure to account for this potential misclassification can lead to significant estimation bias. We reviewed sample expansion factors used for the California Central Valley Chinook salmon 2010 carcass surveys in this context. For upper Sacramento River fall-run and late fall-run carcass surveys, the estimated proportions of adc,cwt fish for fresh and non-fresh carcasses differed substantially, likely from the under-recognition of adc fish in non-fresh carcasses. The resulting estimated proportions of hatchery-origin fish in the upper Sacramento River fall-run and late fall-run carcass surveys were 2.33 to 2.89 times higher if only fresh carcasses are considered. Similar biases can be avoided by consideration of only fresh carcasses for which determination of adc status is relatively straightforward; however, restricting the analysis entirely to fresh carcasses may limit precision because of reduced sample size, and is only possible if protocols for sampling and recording data ensure that the sample data and results for fresh carcasses can be extracted. Thus we recommend sampling protocols that are clearly documented and separately track fresh versus non-fresh carcasses, either collecting only definitively adc fish or that carefully track non-fresh carcasses that are definitively adc versus those that are possibly adc. This would allow judicious use of non-fresh carcass data when sample sizes are otherwise

  2. Sample design for the residential energy consumption survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide detailed information about the multistage area-probability sample design used for the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). It is intended as a technical report, for use by statisticians, to better understand the theory and procedures followed in the creation of the RECS sample frame. For a more cursory overview of the RECS sample design, refer to the appendix entitled ``How the Survey was Conducted,`` which is included in the statistical reports produced for each RECS survey year.

  3. Statistical Estimators Using Jointly Administrative and Survey Data to Produce French Structural Business Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brion Philippe

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Using as much administrative data as possible is a general trend among most national statistical institutes. Different kinds of administrative sources, from tax authorities or other administrative bodies, are very helpful material in the production of business statistics. However, these sources often have to be completed by information collected through statistical surveys. This article describes the way Insee has implemented such a strategy in order to produce French structural business statistics. The originality of the French procedure is that administrative and survey variables are used jointly for the same enterprises, unlike the majority of multisource systems, in which the two kinds of sources generally complement each other for different categories of units. The idea is to use, as much as possible, the richness of the administrative sources combined with the timeliness of a survey, even if the latter is conducted only on a sample of enterprises. One main issue is the classification of enterprises within the NACE nomenclature, which is a cornerstone variable in producing the breakdown of the results by industry. At a given date, two values of the corresponding code may coexist: the value of the register, not necessarily up to date, and the value resulting from the data collected via the survey, but only from a sample of enterprises. Using all this information together requires the implementation of specific statistical estimators combining some properties of the difference estimators with calibration techniques. This article presents these estimators, as well as their statistical properties, and compares them with those of other methods.

  4. Estimation of total catch of silver kob Argyrosomus inodorus by recreational shore-anglers in Namibia using a roving-roving creel survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirchner, C.H.; Beyer, Jan

    1999-01-01

    , using data taken during a survey from 1 October 1995 to 30 September 1996. Two different methods of estimating daily catch were tested by sampling the same population of anglers using a complete and an incomplete survey. The mean rate estimator, calculated by the ratio of the means with progressive......A statistical sampling method is described to estimate the annual catch of silver kob Agryrosomus indorus by recreational shore-anglers in Namibia. The method is based on the theory of progressive counts and on-site roving interviews of anglers, with catch counts and measurements at interception...

  5. Evaluation of sampling strategies to estimate crown biomass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishna P Poudel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Depending on tree and site characteristics crown biomass accounts for a significant portion of the total aboveground biomass in the tree. Crown biomass estimation is useful for different purposes including evaluating the economic feasibility of crown utilization for energy production or forest products, fuel load assessments and fire management strategies, and wildfire modeling. However, crown biomass is difficult to predict because of the variability within and among species and sites. Thus the allometric equations used for predicting crown biomass should be based on data collected with precise and unbiased sampling strategies. In this study, we evaluate the performance different sampling strategies to estimate crown biomass and to evaluate the effect of sample size in estimating crown biomass. Methods Using data collected from 20 destructively sampled trees, we evaluated 11 different sampling strategies using six evaluation statistics: bias, relative bias, root mean square error (RMSE, relative RMSE, amount of biomass sampled, and relative biomass sampled. We also evaluated the performance of the selected sampling strategies when different numbers of branches (3, 6, 9, and 12 are selected from each tree. Tree specific log linear model with branch diameter and branch length as covariates was used to obtain individual branch biomass. Results Compared to all other methods stratified sampling with probability proportional to size estimation technique produced better results when three or six branches per tree were sampled. However, the systematic sampling with ratio estimation technique was the best when at least nine branches per tree were sampled. Under the stratified sampling strategy, selecting unequal number of branches per stratum produced approximately similar results to simple random sampling, but it further decreased RMSE when information on branch diameter is used in the design and estimation phases. Conclusions Use of

  6. How social processes distort measurement: the impact of survey nonresponse on estimates of volunteer work in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Katharine G; Presser, Stanley; Helms, Sara

    2009-01-01

    The authors argue that both the large variability in survey estimates of volunteering and the fact that survey estimates do not show the secular decline common to other social capital measures are caused by the greater propensity of those who do volunteer work to respond to surveys. Analyses of the American Time Use Survey (ATUS)--the sample for which is drawn from the Current Population Survey (CPS)--together with the CPS volunteering supplement show that CPS respondents who become ATUS respondents report much more volunteering in the CPS than those who become ATUS nonrespondents. This difference is replicated within subgroups. Consequently, conventional adjustments for nonresponse cannot correct the bias. Although nonresponse leads to estimates of volunteer activity that are too high, it generally does not affect inferences about the characteristics of volunteers.

  7. The quality of sample surveys in a developing nation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul A Bourne

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Paul A Bourne1, Christopher AD Charles2,3, Neva South-Bourne4, Chloe Morris1, Denise Eldemire-Shearer1, Maureen D Kerr-Campbell51Department of Community Health and Psychiatry, Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, Jamaica; 2King Graduate School, Monroe College, Bronx, New York, USA; 3Center for Victim Support, Harlem Hospital Center, New York, USA; 4Research assistant for Paul A Bourne; 5Systems Development Unit, Main Library, Faculty of Humanities and Education, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, JamaicaBackground: In Jamaica, population census began in 1844, and many intercensal ratios obtained from the census data showed that there is a general high degree of accuracy of the data. However, statistics from the Jamaican Ministry of Health showed that there are inaccuracies in health data collected from males using sample surveys.Objectives: The objectives of the present research are to 1 investigate the accuracy of a national sample survey, 2 explore the feasibility and quality of using a subnational sample survey to represent a national survey, 3 aid other scholars in understanding the probability of using national sample surveys and subnational sample surveys, 4 assess older men’s ­evaluation of their health status, and 5 determine whether dichotomization changes self-evaluated health status.Methods: For the current study, the data used in the analysis were originally collected from 2 different sources: 1 the Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions (JSLC and 2 Survey of Older Men (SOM. Cross validation of self-evaluated data of men in Jamaica was done with comparable samples of the complete JSLC data and the SOM data, where men older than 55 years were selected from each sample.Results: In study 1, 50.2% of respondents indicated at least good self-evaluated health status compared with 74.0% in study 2. Statistical associations were found between health status and survey sample (Χ2 [df = 5

  8. PERIOD ESTIMATION FOR SPARSELY SAMPLED QUASI-PERIODIC LIGHT CURVES APPLIED TO MIRAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Shiyuan; Huang, Jianhua Z.; Long, James [Department of Statistics, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States); Yuan, Wenlong; Macri, Lucas M., E-mail: lmacri@tamu.edu [George P. and Cynthia W. Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX (United States)

    2016-12-01

    We develop a nonlinear semi-parametric Gaussian process model to estimate periods of Miras with sparsely sampled light curves. The model uses a sinusoidal basis for the periodic variation and a Gaussian process for the stochastic changes. We use maximum likelihood to estimate the period and the parameters of the Gaussian process, while integrating out the effects of other nuisance parameters in the model with respect to a suitable prior distribution obtained from earlier studies. Since the likelihood is highly multimodal for period, we implement a hybrid method that applies the quasi-Newton algorithm for Gaussian process parameters and search the period/frequency parameter space over a dense grid. A large-scale, high-fidelity simulation is conducted to mimic the sampling quality of Mira light curves obtained by the M33 Synoptic Stellar Survey. The simulated data set is publicly available and can serve as a testbed for future evaluation of different period estimation methods. The semi-parametric model outperforms an existing algorithm on this simulated test data set as measured by period recovery rate and quality of the resulting period–luminosity relations.

  9. Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

    2015-05-20

    We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Sample design considerations of indoor air exposure surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, B.G.; Mage, D.T.; Immerman, F.W.

    1988-01-01

    Concern about the potential for indoor air pollution has prompted recent surveys of radon and NO 2 concentrations in homes and personal exposure studies of volatile organics, carbon monoxide and pesticides, to name a few. The statistical problems in designing sample surveys that measure the physical environment are diverse and more complicated than those encountered in traditional surveys of human attitudes and attributes. This paper addresses issues encountered when designing indoor air quality (IAQ) studies. General statistical concepts related to target population definition, frame creation, and sample selection for area household surveys and telephone surveys are presented. The implications of different measurement approaches are discussed, and response rate considerations are described

  11. New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability

  12. National sample survey to assess the new case disease burden of leprosy in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiran Katoch

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A national sample survey of leprosy was undertaken in partnership with Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR institutions, National Leprosy Eradication Programme (NLEP, Panchayati Raj members, and treated leprosy patients to detect new cases of leprosy in India. The objectives of the survey were to estimate the new leprosy case load; record both Grade 1 and Grade 2 disabilities in the new cases; and to assess the magnitude of stigma and discrimination prevalent in the society. A cluster based, cross-sectional survey involving all States was used for the door-to-door survey using inverse sampling methodology. Rural and urban clusters were sampled separately. The population screened for detecting 28 new cases in rural and 30 in urban clusters was enumerated, recorded and analyzed. Data capture and analysis in different schedules were the main tools used. For quality control three tiers of experts were utilized for the confirmation of cases and disabilities. Self-stigma was assessed in more than half of the total new patients detected with disabilities by the approved questionnaire. A different questionnaire was used to assess the stigma in the community. A population of 14,725,525 (10,302,443 rural; 4,423,082 urban was screened and 2161 new cases - 1300 paucibacillary (PB and 861 multibacillary (MB were detected. New case estimates for leprosy was 330,346 (95% Confidence limits, 287,445-380,851. Disabilities observed in these cases were 2.05/100,000 population and 13.9 per cent (302/2161 in new cases. Self-stigma in patients with disabilities was reduced, and the patients were well accepted by the spouse, neighbour, at workplace and in social functions.

  13. Stated Preference Survey Estimating the Willingness to Pay ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    A national stated preference survey designed to elicit household willingness to pay for reductions in impinged and entrained fish at cooling water intake structures. To improve estimation of environmental benefits estimation

  14. Point process models for spatio-temporal distance sampling data from a large-scale survey of blue whales

    KAUST Repository

    Yuan, Yuan; Bachl, Fabian E.; Lindgren, Finn; Borchers, David L.; Illian, Janine B.; Buckland, Stephen T.; Rue, Haavard; Gerrodette, Tim

    2017-01-01

    Distance sampling is a widely used method for estimating wildlife population abundance. The fact that conventional distance sampling methods are partly design-based constrains the spatial resolution at which animal density can be estimated using these methods. Estimates are usually obtained at survey stratum level. For an endangered species such as the blue whale, it is desirable to estimate density and abundance at a finer spatial scale than stratum. Temporal variation in the spatial structure is also important. We formulate the process generating distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process and propose model-based inference using a spatial log-Gaussian Cox process. The method adopts a flexible stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach to model spatial structure in density that is not accounted for by explanatory variables, and integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference. It allows simultaneous fitting of detection and density models and permits prediction of density at an arbitrarily fine scale. We estimate blue whale density in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean from thirteen shipboard surveys conducted over 22 years. We find that higher blue whale density is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in space, and although there is some positive association between density and mean annual temperature, our estimates are consistent with no trend in density across years. Our analysis also indicates that there is substantial spatially structured variation in density that is not explained by available covariates.

  15. Point process models for spatio-temporal distance sampling data from a large-scale survey of blue whales

    KAUST Repository

    Yuan, Yuan

    2017-12-28

    Distance sampling is a widely used method for estimating wildlife population abundance. The fact that conventional distance sampling methods are partly design-based constrains the spatial resolution at which animal density can be estimated using these methods. Estimates are usually obtained at survey stratum level. For an endangered species such as the blue whale, it is desirable to estimate density and abundance at a finer spatial scale than stratum. Temporal variation in the spatial structure is also important. We formulate the process generating distance sampling data as a thinned spatial point process and propose model-based inference using a spatial log-Gaussian Cox process. The method adopts a flexible stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach to model spatial structure in density that is not accounted for by explanatory variables, and integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) for Bayesian inference. It allows simultaneous fitting of detection and density models and permits prediction of density at an arbitrarily fine scale. We estimate blue whale density in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean from thirteen shipboard surveys conducted over 22 years. We find that higher blue whale density is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in space, and although there is some positive association between density and mean annual temperature, our estimates are consistent with no trend in density across years. Our analysis also indicates that there is substantial spatially structured variation in density that is not explained by available covariates.

  16. Using the Superpopulation Model for Imputations and Variance Computation in Survey Sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Novák

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This study is aimed at variance computation techniques for estimates of population characteristics based on survey sampling and imputation. We use the superpopulation regression model, which means that the target variable values for each statistical unit are treated as random realizations of a linear regression model with weighted variance. We focus on regression models with one auxiliary variable and no intercept, which have many applications and straightforward interpretation in business statistics. Furthermore, we deal with caseswhere the estimates are not independent and thus the covariance must be computed. We also consider chained regression models with auxiliary variables as random variables instead of constants.

  17. Optimal Allocation of Sampling Effort in Depletion Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    We consider the problem of designing a depletion or removal survey as part of estimating animal abundance for populations with imperfect capture or detection rates. In a depletion survey, animals are captured from a given area, counted, and withheld from the population. This proc...

  18. Sample Loss and Survey Bias in Estimates of Social Security Beneficiaries: A Tale of Two Surveys.

    OpenAIRE

    John L. Czajka; James Mabli; Scott Cody

    2008-01-01

    Data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) and the Current Population Survey (CPS) provide information on current and potential beneficiaries served by Social Security Administration (SSA) programs. SSA also links administrative records to the records of survey respondents who provide Social Security numbers. These matched data expand the content of the SIPP and CPS files to fields available only through SSA and Internal Revenue Service records—such as l...

  19. Comparing two survey methods of measuring health-related indicators: Lot Quality Assurance Sampling and Demographic Health Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anoke, Sarah C; Mwai, Paul; Jeffery, Caroline; Valadez, Joseph J; Pagano, Marcello

    2015-12-01

    Two common methods used to measure indicators for health programme monitoring and evaluation are the demographic and health surveys (DHS) and lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS); each one has different strengths. We report on both methods when utilised in comparable situations. We compared 24 indicators in south-west Uganda, where data for prevalence estimations were collected independently for the two methods in 2011 (LQAS: n = 8876; DHS: n = 1200). Data were stratified (e.g. gender and age) resulting in 37 comparisons. We used a two-sample two-sided Z-test of proportions to compare both methods. The average difference between LQAS and DHS for 37 estimates was 0.062 (SD = 0.093; median = 0.039). The average difference among the 21 failures to reject equality of proportions was 0.010 (SD = 0.041; median = 0.009); among the 16 rejections, it was 0.130 (SD = 0.010, median = 0.118). Seven of the 16 rejections exhibited absolute differences of 0.10 and 0.20 (mean = 0.261, SD = 0.083). There is 75.7% agreement across the two surveys. Both methods yield regional results, but only LQAS provides information at less granular levels (e.g. the district level) where managerial action is taken. The cost advantage and localisation make LQAS feasible to conduct more frequently, and provides the possibility for real-time health outcomes monitoring. © 2015 The Authors. Tropical Medicine & International Health Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Can a sample of Landsat sensor scenes reliably estimate the global extent of tropical deforestation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. L. Czaplewski

    2003-01-01

    Tucker and Townshend (2000) conclude that wall-to-wall coverage is needed to avoid gross errors in estimations of deforestation rates' because tropical deforestation is concentrated along roads and rivers. They specifically question the reliability of the 10% sample of Landsat sensor scenes used in the global remote sensing survey conducted by the Food and...

  1. HOW TO ESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTICS MISSING IN A CONSUMERS SAMPLE BY USING BAYESIAN ESTIMATORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sueli A. Mingoti

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Consumers surveys are conducted very often by many companies with the main objective of obtaining information about the opinions the consumers have about a specific prototype, product or service. In many situations the goal is to identify the characteristics that are considered important by the consumers when taking the decision of buying or using the products or services. When the survey is performed some characteristics that are present in the consumers population might not be reported by those consumers in the observed sample. Therefore, some important characteristics of the product according to the consumers opinions could be missing in the observed sample. The main objective of this paper is to show how the amount of characteristics missing in the observed sample could be easily estimated by using some Bayesian estimators proposed by Mingoti & Meeden (1992 and Mingoti (1999. An example of application related to an automobile survey is presented.Pesquisas de mercado são conduzidas freqüentemente com o propósito de obter informações sobre a opinião dos consumidores em relação a produtos já existentes no mercado, protótipos, ou determinados tipos de serviços prestados pela empresa. Em muitas situações deseja-se identificar as características que são consideradas importantes pelos consumidores no que se refere à tomada de decisão de compra do produto ou de opção pelo serviço prestado pela empresa. Como as pesquisas são feitas com amostras de consumidores do mercado potencial, algumas características consideradas importantes pela população podem não estar representadas nas amostras. O objetivo deste artigo é mostrar como a quantidade de características presentes na população e que não estão representadas nas amostras, pode ser facilmente estimada através de estimadores Bayesianos propostos por Mingoti & Meeden (1992 e Mingoti (1999. Como ilustração apresentamos um exemplo de uma pesquisa de mercado sobre um

  2. Sample substitution can be an acceptable data-collection strategy: the case of the Belgian Health Interview Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demarest, Stefaan; Molenberghs, Geert; Van der Heyden, Johan; Gisle, Lydia; Van Oyen, Herman; de Waleffe, Sandrine; Van Hal, Guido

    2017-11-01

    Substitution of non-participating households is used in the Belgian Health Interview Survey (BHIS) as a method to obtain the predefined net sample size. Yet, possible effects of applying substitution on response rates and health estimates remain uncertain. In this article, the process of substitution with its impact on response rates and health estimates is assessed. The response rates (RR)-both at household and individual level-according to the sampling criteria were calculated for each stage of the substitution process, together with the individual accrual rate (AR). Unweighted and weighted health estimates were calculated before and after applying substitution. Of the 10,468 members of 4878 initial households, 5904 members (RRind: 56.4%) of 2707 households (RRhh: 55.5%) participated. For the three successive (matched) substitutes, the RR dropped to 45%. The composition of the net sample resembles the one of the initial samples. Applying substitution did not produce any important distorting effects on the estimates. Applying substitution leads to an increase in non-participation, but does not impact the estimations.

  3. Estimating the abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation with aerial surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Middel, Kevin R.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2015-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture–recapture studies indicate abundance was likely unchanged between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival occurred during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double-observer and distance sampling protocols. We surveyed small islands in James Bay and eastern Hudson Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark–recapture distance sampling and sight–resight models yielded an estimate of 860 (SE = 174) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (943; SE = 174) suggests that abundance is unlikely to have changed significantly since 1986. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture–recapture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given previous increases in duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  4. Convenience Sampling of Children Presenting to Hospital-Based Outpatient Clinics to Estimate Childhood Obesity Levels in Local Surroundings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilliland, Jason; Clark, Andrew F; Kobrzynski, Marta; Filler, Guido

    2015-07-01

    Childhood obesity is a critical public health matter associated with numerous pediatric comorbidities. Local-level data are required to monitor obesity and to help administer prevention efforts when and where they are most needed. We hypothesized that samples of children visiting hospital clinics could provide representative local population estimates of childhood obesity using data from 2007 to 2013. Such data might provide more accurate, timely, and cost-effective obesity estimates than national surveys. Results revealed that our hospital-based sample could not serve as a population surrogate. Further research is needed to confirm this finding.

  5. Differences in Movement Pattern and Detectability between Males and Females Influence How Common Sampling Methods Estimate Sex Ratio.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Fabrício Mota Rodrigues

    Full Text Available Sampling the biodiversity is an essential step for conservation, and understanding the efficiency of sampling methods allows us to estimate the quality of our biodiversity data. Sex ratio is an important population characteristic, but until now, no study has evaluated how efficient are the sampling methods commonly used in biodiversity surveys in estimating the sex ratio of populations. We used a virtual ecologist approach to investigate whether active and passive capture methods are able to accurately sample a population's sex ratio and whether differences in movement pattern and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex-ratios when using these methods. Our simulation allowed the recognition of individuals, similar to mark-recapture studies. We found that differences in both movement patterns and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex ratios. However, increasing the sampling effort or the number of sampling days improves the ability of passive or active capture methods to properly sample sex ratio. Thus, prior knowledge regarding movement patterns and detectability for species is important information to guide field studies aiming to understand sex ratio related patterns.

  6. Differences in Movement Pattern and Detectability between Males and Females Influence How Common Sampling Methods Estimate Sex Ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, João Fabrício Mota; Coelho, Marco Túlio Pacheco

    2016-01-01

    Sampling the biodiversity is an essential step for conservation, and understanding the efficiency of sampling methods allows us to estimate the quality of our biodiversity data. Sex ratio is an important population characteristic, but until now, no study has evaluated how efficient are the sampling methods commonly used in biodiversity surveys in estimating the sex ratio of populations. We used a virtual ecologist approach to investigate whether active and passive capture methods are able to accurately sample a population's sex ratio and whether differences in movement pattern and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex-ratios when using these methods. Our simulation allowed the recognition of individuals, similar to mark-recapture studies. We found that differences in both movement patterns and detectability between males and females produce biased estimates of sex ratios. However, increasing the sampling effort or the number of sampling days improves the ability of passive or active capture methods to properly sample sex ratio. Thus, prior knowledge regarding movement patterns and detectability for species is important information to guide field studies aiming to understand sex ratio related patterns.

  7. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  8. Estimating the residential demand function for natural gas in Seoul with correction for sample selection bias

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Seung-Hoon; Lim, Hea-Jin; Kwak, Seung-Jun

    2009-01-01

    Over the last twenty years, the consumption of natural gas in Korea has increased dramatically. This increase has mainly resulted from the rise of consumption in the residential sector. The main objective of the study is to estimate households' demand function for natural gas by applying a sample selection model using data from a survey of households in Seoul. The results show that there exists a selection bias in the sample and that failure to correct for sample selection bias distorts the mean estimate, of the demand for natural gas, downward by 48.1%. In addition, according to the estimation results, the size of the house, the dummy variable for dwelling in an apartment, the dummy variable for having a bed in an inner room, and the household's income all have positive relationships with the demand for natural gas. On the other hand, the size of the family and the price of gas negatively contribute to the demand for natural gas. (author)

  9. Unemployment estimation: Spatial point referenced methods and models

    KAUST Repository

    Pereira, Soraia

    2017-06-26

    Portuguese Labor force survey, from 4th quarter of 2014 onwards, started geo-referencing the sampling units, namely the dwellings in which the surveys are carried. This opens new possibilities in analysing and estimating unemployment and its spatial distribution across any region. The labor force survey choose, according to an preestablished sampling criteria, a certain number of dwellings across the nation and survey the number of unemployed in these dwellings. Based on this survey, the National Statistical Institute of Portugal presently uses direct estimation methods to estimate the national unemployment figures. Recently, there has been increased interest in estimating these figures in smaller areas. Direct estimation methods, due to reduced sampling sizes in small areas, tend to produce fairly large sampling variations therefore model based methods, which tend to

  10. On efficiency of some ratio estimators in double sampling design ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, three sampling ratio estimators in double sampling design were proposed with the intention of finding an alternative double sampling design estimator to the conventional ratio estimator in double sampling design discussed by Cochran (1997), Okafor (2002) , Raj (1972) and Raj and Chandhok (1999).

  11. Cluster-sample surveys and lot quality assurance sampling to evaluate yellow fever immunisation coverage following a national campaign, Bolivia, 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzoli, Lorenzo; Pineda, Silvia; Halkyer, Percy; Crespo, Gladys; Andrews, Nick; Ronveaux, Olivier

    2009-03-01

    To estimate the yellow fever (YF) vaccine coverage for the endemic and non-endemic areas of Bolivia and to determine whether selected districts had acceptable levels of coverage (>70%). We conducted two surveys of 600 individuals (25 x 12 clusters) to estimate coverage in the endemic and non-endemic areas. We assessed 11 districts using lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS). The lot (district) sample was 35 individuals with six as decision value (alpha error 6% if true coverage 70%; beta error 6% if true coverage 90%). To increase feasibility, we divided the lots into five clusters of seven individuals; to investigate the effect of clustering, we calculated alpha and beta by conducting simulations where each cluster's true coverage was sampled from a normal distribution with a mean of 70% or 90% and standard deviations of 5% or 10%. Estimated coverage was 84.3% (95% CI: 78.9-89.7) in endemic areas, 86.8% (82.5-91.0) in non-endemic and 86.0% (82.8-89.1) nationally. LQAS showed that four lots had unacceptable coverage levels. In six lots, results were inconsistent with the estimated administrative coverage. The simulations suggested that the effect of clustering the lots is unlikely to have significantly increased the risk of making incorrect accept/reject decisions. Estimated YF coverage was high. Discrepancies between administrative coverage and LQAS results may be due to incorrect population data. Even allowing for clustering in LQAS, the statistical errors would remain low. Catch-up campaigns are recommended in districts with unacceptable coverage.

  12. A Unimodal Model for Double Observer Distance Sampling Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Earl F Becker

    Full Text Available Distance sampling is a widely used method to estimate animal population size. Most distance sampling models utilize a monotonically decreasing detection function such as a half-normal. Recent advances in distance sampling modeling allow for the incorporation of covariates into the distance model, and the elimination of the assumption of perfect detection at some fixed distance (usually the transect line with the use of double-observer models. The assumption of full observer independence in the double-observer model is problematic, but can be addressed by using the point independence assumption which assumes there is one distance, the apex of the detection function, where the 2 observers are assumed independent. Aerially collected distance sampling data can have a unimodal shape and have been successfully modeled with a gamma detection function. Covariates in gamma detection models cause the apex of detection to shift depending upon covariate levels, making this model incompatible with the point independence assumption when using double-observer data. This paper reports a unimodal detection model based on a two-piece normal distribution that allows covariates, has only one apex, and is consistent with the point independence assumption when double-observer data are utilized. An aerial line-transect survey of black bears in Alaska illustrate how this method can be applied.

  13. Numerically stable algorithm for combining census and sample estimates with the multivariate composite estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. L. Czaplewski

    2009-01-01

    The minimum variance multivariate composite estimator is a relatively simple sequential estimator for complex sampling designs (Czaplewski 2009). Such designs combine a probability sample of expensive field data with multiple censuses and/or samples of relatively inexpensive multi-sensor, multi-resolution remotely sensed data. Unfortunately, the multivariate composite...

  14. Can Weighting Compensate for Sampling Issues in Internet Surveys?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vaske, J.J.; Jacobs, M.H.; Sijtsma, M.T.J.; Beaman, J.

    2011-01-01

    While Internet surveys have increased in popularity, results may not be representative of target populations. Weighting is commonly used to compensate for sampling issues. This article compared two surveys conducted in the Netherlands—a random mail survey (n = 353) and a convenience Internet survey

  15. Estimation of population mean under systematic sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noor-ul-amin, Muhammad; Javaid, Amjad

    2017-11-01

    In this study we propose a generalized ratio estimator under non-response for systematic random sampling. We also generate a class of estimators through special cases of generalized estimator using different combinations of coefficients of correlation, kurtosis and variation. The mean square errors and mathematical conditions are also derived to prove the efficiency of proposed estimators. Numerical illustration is included using three populations to support the results.

  16. Network Structure and Biased Variance Estimation in Respondent Driven Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdery, Ashton M; Mouw, Ted; Bauldry, Shawn; Mucha, Peter J

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores bias in the estimation of sampling variance in Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS). Prior methodological work on RDS has focused on its problematic assumptions and the biases and inefficiencies of its estimators of the population mean. Nonetheless, researchers have given only slight attention to the topic of estimating sampling variance in RDS, despite the importance of variance estimation for the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. In this paper, we show that the estimators of RDS sampling variance rely on a critical assumption that the network is First Order Markov (FOM) with respect to the dependent variable of interest. We demonstrate, through intuitive examples, mathematical generalizations, and computational experiments that current RDS variance estimators will always underestimate the population sampling variance of RDS in empirical networks that do not conform to the FOM assumption. Analysis of 215 observed university and school networks from Facebook and Add Health indicates that the FOM assumption is violated in every empirical network we analyze, and that these violations lead to substantially biased RDS estimators of sampling variance. We propose and test two alternative variance estimators that show some promise for reducing biases, but which also illustrate the limits of estimating sampling variance with only partial information on the underlying population social network.

  17. Air sampling system for airborne surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jupiter, C.; Tipton, W.J.

    1975-01-01

    An air sampling system has been designed for installation on the Beechcraft King Air A-100 aircraft as a part of the Aerial Radiological Measuring System (ARMS). It is intended for both particle and whole gas sampling. The sampling probe is designed for isokinetic sampling and is mounted on a removable modified escape hatch cover, behind the co-pilot's seat, and extends about two feet forward of the hatch cover in the air stream lines. Directly behind the sampling probe inside the modified hatch cover is an expansion chamber, space for a 5-inch diameter filter paper cassette, and an optional four-stage cascade impactor for particle size distribution measurements. A pair of motors and blower pumps provide the necessary 0.5 atmosphere pressure across the type MSA 1106 B glass fiber filter paper to allow a flow rate of 50 cfm. The MSA 1106 B filter paper is designed to trap sub-micrometer particles with a high efficiency; it was chosen to enable a quantitative measurement of airborne radon daughters, one of the principal sources of background signals when radiological surveys are being performed. A venturi section and pressure gauges allow air flow rate measurements so that airborne contaminant concentrations may be quantified. A whole gas sampler capable of sampling a cubic meter of air is mounted inside the aircraft cabin. A nuclear counting system on board the aircraft provides capability for α, β and γ counting of filter paper samples. Design data are presented and types of survey missions which may be served by this system are described

  18. Survey research with a random digit dial national mobile phone sample in Ghana: Methods and sample quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefa, Eunice; Adimazoya, Edward Akolgo; Yartey, Emmanuel; Lenzi, Rachel; Tarpo, Cindy; Heward-Mills, Nii Lante; Lew, Katherine; Ampeh, Yvonne

    2018-01-01

    Introduction Generating a nationally representative sample in low and middle income countries typically requires resource-intensive household level sampling with door-to-door data collection. High mobile phone penetration rates in developing countries provide new opportunities for alternative sampling and data collection methods, but there is limited information about response rates and sample biases in coverage and nonresponse using these methods. We utilized data from an interactive voice response, random-digit dial, national mobile phone survey in Ghana to calculate standardized response rates and assess representativeness of the obtained sample. Materials and methods The survey methodology was piloted in two rounds of data collection. The final survey included 18 demographic, media exposure, and health behavior questions. Call outcomes and response rates were calculated according to the American Association of Public Opinion Research guidelines. Sample characteristics, productivity, and costs per interview were calculated. Representativeness was assessed by comparing data to the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey and the National Population and Housing Census. Results The survey was fielded during a 27-day period in February-March 2017. There were 9,469 completed interviews and 3,547 partial interviews. Response, cooperation, refusal, and contact rates were 31%, 81%, 7%, and 39% respectively. Twenty-three calls were dialed to produce an eligible contact: nonresponse was substantial due to the automated calling system and dialing of many unassigned or non-working numbers. Younger, urban, better educated, and male respondents were overrepresented in the sample. Conclusions The innovative mobile phone data collection methodology yielded a large sample in a relatively short period. Response rates were comparable to other surveys, although substantial coverage bias resulted from fewer women, rural, and older residents completing the mobile phone survey in

  19. Survey research with a random digit dial national mobile phone sample in Ghana: Methods and sample quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    L'Engle, Kelly; Sefa, Eunice; Adimazoya, Edward Akolgo; Yartey, Emmanuel; Lenzi, Rachel; Tarpo, Cindy; Heward-Mills, Nii Lante; Lew, Katherine; Ampeh, Yvonne

    2018-01-01

    Generating a nationally representative sample in low and middle income countries typically requires resource-intensive household level sampling with door-to-door data collection. High mobile phone penetration rates in developing countries provide new opportunities for alternative sampling and data collection methods, but there is limited information about response rates and sample biases in coverage and nonresponse using these methods. We utilized data from an interactive voice response, random-digit dial, national mobile phone survey in Ghana to calculate standardized response rates and assess representativeness of the obtained sample. The survey methodology was piloted in two rounds of data collection. The final survey included 18 demographic, media exposure, and health behavior questions. Call outcomes and response rates were calculated according to the American Association of Public Opinion Research guidelines. Sample characteristics, productivity, and costs per interview were calculated. Representativeness was assessed by comparing data to the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey and the National Population and Housing Census. The survey was fielded during a 27-day period in February-March 2017. There were 9,469 completed interviews and 3,547 partial interviews. Response, cooperation, refusal, and contact rates were 31%, 81%, 7%, and 39% respectively. Twenty-three calls were dialed to produce an eligible contact: nonresponse was substantial due to the automated calling system and dialing of many unassigned or non-working numbers. Younger, urban, better educated, and male respondents were overrepresented in the sample. The innovative mobile phone data collection methodology yielded a large sample in a relatively short period. Response rates were comparable to other surveys, although substantial coverage bias resulted from fewer women, rural, and older residents completing the mobile phone survey in comparison to household surveys. Random digit dialing of mobile

  20. Survey research with a random digit dial national mobile phone sample in Ghana: Methods and sample quality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly L'Engle

    Full Text Available Generating a nationally representative sample in low and middle income countries typically requires resource-intensive household level sampling with door-to-door data collection. High mobile phone penetration rates in developing countries provide new opportunities for alternative sampling and data collection methods, but there is limited information about response rates and sample biases in coverage and nonresponse using these methods. We utilized data from an interactive voice response, random-digit dial, national mobile phone survey in Ghana to calculate standardized response rates and assess representativeness of the obtained sample.The survey methodology was piloted in two rounds of data collection. The final survey included 18 demographic, media exposure, and health behavior questions. Call outcomes and response rates were calculated according to the American Association of Public Opinion Research guidelines. Sample characteristics, productivity, and costs per interview were calculated. Representativeness was assessed by comparing data to the Ghana Demographic and Health Survey and the National Population and Housing Census.The survey was fielded during a 27-day period in February-March 2017. There were 9,469 completed interviews and 3,547 partial interviews. Response, cooperation, refusal, and contact rates were 31%, 81%, 7%, and 39% respectively. Twenty-three calls were dialed to produce an eligible contact: nonresponse was substantial due to the automated calling system and dialing of many unassigned or non-working numbers. Younger, urban, better educated, and male respondents were overrepresented in the sample.The innovative mobile phone data collection methodology yielded a large sample in a relatively short period. Response rates were comparable to other surveys, although substantial coverage bias resulted from fewer women, rural, and older residents completing the mobile phone survey in comparison to household surveys. Random digit

  1. Estimation of geographic variation in human papillomavirus vaccine uptake in men and women: an online survey using facebook recruitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Erik J; Hughes, John; Oakes, J Michael; Pankow, James S; Kulasingam, Shalini L

    2014-09-01

    Federally funded surveys of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake are important for pinpointing geographically based health disparities. Although national and state level data are available, local (ie, county and postal code level) data are not due to small sample sizes, confidentiality concerns, and cost. Local level HPV vaccine uptake data may be feasible to obtain by targeting specific geographic areas through social media advertising and recruitment strategies, in combination with online surveys. Our goal was to use Facebook-based recruitment and online surveys to estimate local variation in HPV vaccine uptake among young men and women in Minnesota. From November 2012 to January 2013, men and women were recruited via a targeted Facebook advertisement campaign to complete an online survey about HPV vaccination practices. The Facebook advertisements were targeted to recruit men and women by location (25 mile radius of Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States), age (18-30 years), and language (English). Of the 2079 men and women who responded to the Facebook advertisements and visited the study website, 1003 (48.2%) enrolled in the study and completed the survey. The average advertising cost per completed survey was US $1.36. Among those who reported their postal code, 90.6% (881/972) of the participants lived within the previously defined geographic study area. Receipt of 1 dose or more of HPV vaccine was reported by 65.6% women (351/535), and 13.0% (45/347) of men. These results differ from previously reported Minnesota state level estimates (53.8% for young women and 20.8% for young men) and from national estimates (34.5% for women and 2.3% for men). This study shows that recruiting a representative sample of young men and women based on county and postal code location to complete a survey on HPV vaccination uptake via the Internet is a cost-effective and feasible strategy. This study also highlights the need for local estimates to assess the variation in HPV

  2. Estimation of Geographic Variation in Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Uptake in Men and Women: An Online Survey Using Facebook Recruitment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, John; Oakes, J Michael; Pankow, James S; Kulasingam, Shalini L

    2014-01-01

    Background Federally funded surveys of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake are important for pinpointing geographically based health disparities. Although national and state level data are available, local (ie, county and postal code level) data are not due to small sample sizes, confidentiality concerns, and cost. Local level HPV vaccine uptake data may be feasible to obtain by targeting specific geographic areas through social media advertising and recruitment strategies, in combination with online surveys. Objective Our goal was to use Facebook-based recruitment and online surveys to estimate local variation in HPV vaccine uptake among young men and women in Minnesota. Methods From November 2012 to January 2013, men and women were recruited via a targeted Facebook advertisement campaign to complete an online survey about HPV vaccination practices. The Facebook advertisements were targeted to recruit men and women by location (25 mile radius of Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States), age (18-30 years), and language (English). Results Of the 2079 men and women who responded to the Facebook advertisements and visited the study website, 1003 (48.2%) enrolled in the study and completed the survey. The average advertising cost per completed survey was US $1.36. Among those who reported their postal code, 90.6% (881/972) of the participants lived within the previously defined geographic study area. Receipt of 1 dose or more of HPV vaccine was reported by 65.6% women (351/535), and 13.0% (45/347) of men. These results differ from previously reported Minnesota state level estimates (53.8% for young women and 20.8% for young men) and from national estimates (34.5% for women and 2.3% for men). Conclusions This study shows that recruiting a representative sample of young men and women based on county and postal code location to complete a survey on HPV vaccination uptake via the Internet is a cost-effective and feasible strategy. This study also highlights the need

  3. Hepatitis C bio-behavioural surveys in people who inject drugs-a systematic review of sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions of respondent driven sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchanan, Ryan; Khakoo, Salim I; Coad, Jonathan; Grellier, Leonie; Parkes, Julie

    2017-07-11

    New, more effective and better-tolerated therapies for hepatitis C (HCV) have made the elimination of HCV a feasible objective. However, for this to be achieved, it is necessary to have a detailed understanding of HCV epidemiology in people who inject drugs (PWID). Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) can provide prevalence estimates in hidden populations such as PWID. The aims of this systematic review are to identify published studies that use RDS in PWID to measure the prevalence of HCV, and compare each study against the STROBE-RDS checklist to assess their sensitivity to the theoretical assumptions underlying RDS. Searches were undertaken in accordance with PRISMA systematic review guidelines. Included studies were English language publications in peer-reviewed journals, which reported the use of RDS to recruit PWID to an HCV bio-behavioural survey. Data was extracted under three headings: (1) survey overview, (2) survey outcomes, and (3) reporting against selected STROBE-RDS criteria. Thirty-one studies met the inclusion criteria. They varied in scale (range 1-15 survey sites) and the sample sizes achieved (range 81-1000 per survey site) but were consistent in describing the use of standard RDS methods including: seeds, coupons and recruitment incentives. Twenty-seven studies (87%) either calculated or reported the intention to calculate population prevalence estimates for HCV and two used RDS data to calculate the total population size of PWID. Detailed operational and analytical procedures and reporting against selected criteria from the STROBE-RDS checklist varied between studies. There were widespread indications that sampling did not meet the assumptions underlying RDS, which led to two studies being unable to report an estimated HCV population prevalence in at least one survey location. RDS can be used to estimate a population prevalence of HCV in PWID and estimate the PWID population size. Accordingly, as a single instrument, it is a useful tool for

  4. Northern Marshall Islands radiological survey: sampling and analysis summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robison, W.L.; Conrado, C.L.; Eagle, R.J.; Stuart, M.L.

    1981-07-23

    A radiological survey was conducted in the Northern Marshall Islands to document reamining external gamma exposures from nuclear tests conducted at Enewetak and Bikini Atolls. An additional program was later included to obtain terrestrial and marine samples for radiological dose assessment for current or potential atoll inhabitants. This report is the first of a series summarizing the results from the terrestrial and marine surveys. The sample collection and processing procedures and the general survey methodology are discussed; a summary of the collected samples and radionuclide analyses is presented. Over 5400 samples were collected from the 12 atolls and 2 islands and prepared for analysis including 3093 soil, 961 vegetation, 153 animal, 965 fish composite samples (average of 30 fish per sample), 101 clam, 50 lagoon water, 15 cistern water, 17 groundwater, and 85 lagoon sediment samples. A complete breakdown by sample type, atoll, and island is given here. The total number of analyses by radionuclide are 8840 for /sup 241/Am, 6569 for /sup 137/Cs, 4535 for /sup 239 +240/Pu, 4431 for /sup 90/Sr, 1146 for /sup 238/Pu, 269 for /sup 241/Pu, and 114 each for /sup 239/Pu and /sup 240/Pu. A complete breakdown by sample category, atoll or island, and radionuclide is also included.

  5. Northern Marshall Islands radiological survey: sampling and analysis summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, W.L.; Conrado, C.L.; Eagle, R.J.; Stuart, M.L.

    1981-01-01

    A radiological survey was conducted in the Northern Marshall Islands to document reamining external gamma exposures from nuclear tests conducted at Enewetak and Bikini Atolls. An additional program was later included to obtain terrestrial and marine samples for radiological dose assessment for current or potential atoll inhabitants. This report is the first of a series summarizing the results from the terrestrial and marine surveys. The sample collection and processing procedures and the general survey methodology are discussed; a summary of the collected samples and radionuclide analyses is presented. Over 5400 samples were collected from the 12 atolls and 2 islands and prepared for analysis including 3093 soil, 961 vegetation, 153 animal, 965 fish composite samples (average of 30 fish per sample), 101 clam, 50 lagoon water, 15 cistern water, 17 groundwater, and 85 lagoon sediment samples. A complete breakdown by sample type, atoll, and island is given here. The total number of analyses by radionuclide are 8840 for 241 Am, 6569 for 137 Cs, 4535 for 239+240 Pu, 4431 for 90 Sr, 1146 for 238 Pu, 269 for 241 Pu, and 114 each for 239 Pu and 240 Pu. A complete breakdown by sample category, atoll or island, and radionuclide is also included

  6. Using Intelligent Techniques in Construction Project Cost Estimation: 10-Year Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelrahman Osman Elfaki

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Cost estimation is the most important preliminary process in any construction project. Therefore, construction cost estimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. In this paper, we have analysed and studied proposals for construction cost estimation for the last 10 years. To implement this survey, we have proposed and applied a methodology that consists of two parts. The first part concerns data collection, for which we have chosen special journals as sources for the surveyed proposals. The second part concerns the analysis of the proposals. To analyse each proposal, the following four questions have been set. Which intelligent technique is used? How have data been collected? How are the results validated? And which construction cost estimation factors have been used? From the results of this survey, two main contributions have been produced. The first contribution is the defining of the research gap in this area, which has not been fully covered by previous proposals of construction cost estimation. The second contribution of this survey is the proposal and highlighting of future directions for forthcoming proposals, aimed ultimately at finding the optimal construction cost estimation. Moreover, we consider the second part of our methodology as one of our contributions in this paper. This methodology has been proposed as a standard benchmark for construction cost estimation proposals.

  7. An Improvement to Interval Estimation for Small Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUN Hui-Ling

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Because it is difficult and complex to determine the probability distribution of small samples,it is improper to use traditional probability theory to process parameter estimation for small samples. Bayes Bootstrap method is always used in the project. Although,the Bayes Bootstrap method has its own limitation,In this article an improvement is given to the Bayes Bootstrap method,This method extended the amount of samples by numerical simulation without changing the circumstances in a small sample of the original sample. And the new method can give the accurate interval estimation for the small samples. Finally,by using the Monte Carlo simulation to model simulation to the specific small sample problems. The effectiveness and practicability of the Improved-Bootstrap method was proved.

  8. Empirical Estimates in Optimization Problems: Survey with Special Regard to Heavy Tails and Dependent Data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kaňková, Vlasta

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 30 (2012), s. 92-111 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/0956; GA ČR GAP402/11/0150; GA ČR GAP402/10/1610 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic optimization * empirical estimates * thin and heavy tails * independent and weak dependent random samples Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kankova-empirical estimates in optimization problems survey with special regard to heavy tails and dependent data.pdf

  9. Variable selection and estimation for longitudinal survey data

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Li; Wang, Suojin; Wang, Guannan

    2014-01-01

    There is wide interest in studying longitudinal surveys where sample subjects are observed successively over time. Longitudinal surveys have been used in many areas today, for example, in the health and social sciences, to explore relationships

  10. A geostatistical estimation of zinc grade in bore-core samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, A.

    1987-01-01

    Possibilities and preliminary results of geostatistical interpretation of the XRF determination of zinc in bore-core samples are considered. For the spherical model of the variogram the estimation variance of grade in a disk-shape sample (estimated from the grade on the circumference sample) is calculated. Variograms of zinc grade in core samples are presented and examples of the grade estimation are discussed. 4 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab. (author)

  11. Non-response weighting adjustment approach in survey sampling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hence the discussion is illustrated with real examples from surveys (in particular 2003 KDHS) conducted by Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) - Kenya. Some suggestions are made for improving the quality of non-response weighting. Keywords: Survey non-response; non-response adjustment factors; weighting; sampling ...

  12. A Survey of Archaeological Samples Dated in 1985

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejdahl, Vagn

    1986-01-01

    A survey is given of archaeological samples received for dating in 1985 at the Nordic Laboratory for Thermoluminescence Dating. A total of 66 samples were dated, 42 of which were burnt stones. All results were corrected for short-term fading as measured for samples stored at room temperature...

  13. A survey of archaeological and geological samples dated in 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejdahl, V.

    1991-01-01

    A survey of dated archaeological and geological samples is given, using thermoluminescence dating. Some of the sediment samples were also dated by means of optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) using a newly developed infrared diode system. In most cases the luminescence dates are in accordance with archaeological and geological estimates. Some discrepancies were found because some feldspar samples exhibited severe anomalous fading. It may be possible to avoid this problem by basing the dating on OSL of quartz. For sediment samples of Eemian or Early Weichselian age severe underestimates were encountered with both methods. The reason might be related to the large difference between the natural dose rate and that used in laboratory irradiations. Traps corresponding to low-temperature peaks such as the 150 deg. C peak in feldspars will remain almost empty under natural conditions, but will fill up to saturation under laboratory irradiation and thereby more charges will be captured in high-temperature traps. As a result, natural growth curves and laboratory produced luminescence growth curves will have different slopes and this will lead to underestimation. This problem might avoided by holding samples at an elevated temperature during laboratory irradiation, thus keeping the low-temperature traps empty. Preliminary experiments where feldspar samples were held at 130 deg. C during irradiation have given promising results. (AB) (31 refs.)

  14. Like a virgin (mother): analysis of data from a longitudinal, US population representative sample survey

    OpenAIRE

    Herring, Amy H; Attard, Samantha M; Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Joyner, William H; Halpern, Carolyn T

    2013-01-01

    Objective To estimate the incidence of self report of pregnancy without sexual intercourse (virgin pregnancy) and factors related to such reporting, in a population representative group of US adolescents and young adults. Design Longitudinal, population representative sample survey. Setting Nationally representative, multiethnic National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, United States. Participants 7870 women enrolled at wave I (1995) and completing the most recent wave of data collect...

  15. A synthesis of convenience survey and other data to estimate undiagnosed HIV infection among men who have sex with men in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Kate; Seaman, Shaun R; De Angelis, Daniela; Presanis, Anne M; Dodds, Julie P; Johnson, Anne M; Mercey, Danielle; Gill, O Noel; Copas, Andrew J

    2011-10-01

    Hard-to-reach population subgroups are typically investigated using convenience sampling, which may give biased estimates. Combining information from such surveys, a probability survey and clinic surveillance, can potentially minimize the bias. We developed a methodology to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales aged 16-44 years in 2003, making fuller use of the available data than earlier work. We performed a synthesis of three data sources: genitourinary medicine clinic surveillance (11 380 tests), a venue-based convenience survey including anonymous HIV testing (3702 MSM) and a general population sexual behaviour survey (134 MSM). A logistic regression model to predict undiagnosed infection was fitted to the convenience survey data and then applied to the MSMs in the population survey to estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed infection in the general MSM population. This estimate was corrected for selection biases in the convenience survey using clinic surveillance data. A sensitivity analysis addressed uncertainty in our assumptions. The estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HIV in MSM was 2.4% [95% confidence interval (95% CI 1.7-3.0%)], and between 1.6% (95% CI 1.1-2.0%) and 3.3% (95% CI 2.4-4.1%) depending on assumptions; corresponding to 5500 (3390-7180), 3610 (2180-4740) and 7570 (4790-9840) men, and undiagnosed fractions of 33, 24 and 40%, respectively. Our estimates are consistent with earlier work that did not make full use of data sources. Reconciling data from multiple sources, including probability-, clinic- and venue-based convenience samples can reduce bias in estimates. This methodology could be applied in other settings to take full advantage of multiple imperfect data sources.

  16. Validation of the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Human Services Survey for Estimating Burnout in Dental Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montiel-Company, José María; Subirats-Roig, Cristian; Flores-Martí, Pau; Bellot-Arcís, Carlos; Almerich-Silla, José Manuel

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the validity and reliability of the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS) as a tool for assessing the prevalence and level of burnout in dental students in Spanish universities. The survey was adapted from English to Spanish. A sample of 533 dental students from 15 Spanish universities and a control group of 188 medical students self-administered the survey online, using the Google Drive service. The test-retest reliability or reproducibility showed an Intraclass Correlation Coefficient of 0.95. The internal consistency of the survey was 0.922. Testing the construct validity showed two components with an eigenvalue greater than 1.5, which explained 51.2% of the total variance. Factor I (36.6% of the variance) comprised the items that estimated emotional exhaustion and depersonalization. Factor II (14.6% of the variance) contained the items that estimated personal accomplishment. The cut-off point for the existence of burnout achieved a sensitivity of 92.2%, a specificity of 92.1%, and an area under the curve of 0.96. Comparison of the total dental students sample and the control group of medical students showed significantly higher burnout levels for the dental students (50.3% vs. 40.4%). In this study, the MBI-HSS was found to be viable, valid, and reliable for measuring burnout in dental students. Since the study also found that the dental students suffered from high levels of this syndrome, these results suggest the need for preventive burnout control programs.

  17. Poisson sampling - The adjusted and unadjusted estimator revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael S. Williams; Hans T. Schreuder; Gerardo H. Terrazas

    1998-01-01

    The prevailing assumption, that for Poisson sampling the adjusted estimator "Y-hat a" is always substantially more efficient than the unadjusted estimator "Y-hat u" , is shown to be incorrect. Some well known theoretical results are applicable since "Y-hat a" is a ratio-of-means estimator and "Y-hat u" a simple unbiased estimator...

  18. A Survey of Archaeological Samples Dated in 1984

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mejdahl, Vagn

    A survey is given of archaeological samples dated in 1984 at the Nordic Laboratory for Thermoluminescence Dating. A total of 79 samples were dated, 49 of which were burnt stones. All results were corrected for fading as measured for samples stored for four weeks at room temperature. The alpha dose...

  19. Detecting spatial structures in throughfall data: The effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and variogram estimation method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Sebastian; Zimmermann, Beate; Zimmermann, Alexander

    2016-09-01

    In the last decades, an increasing number of studies analyzed spatial patterns in throughfall by means of variograms. The estimation of the variogram from sample data requires an appropriate sampling scheme: most importantly, a large sample and a layout of sampling locations that often has to serve both variogram estimation and geostatistical prediction. While some recommendations on these aspects exist, they focus on Gaussian data and high ratios of the variogram range to the extent of the study area. However, many hydrological data, and throughfall data in particular, do not follow a Gaussian distribution. In this study, we examined the effect of extent, sample size, sampling design, and calculation method on variogram estimation of throughfall data. For our investigation, we first generated non-Gaussian random fields based on throughfall data with large outliers. Subsequently, we sampled the fields with three extents (plots with edge lengths of 25 m, 50 m, and 100 m), four common sampling designs (two grid-based layouts, transect and random sampling) and five sample sizes (50, 100, 150, 200, 400). We then estimated the variogram parameters by method-of-moments (non-robust and robust estimators) and residual maximum likelihood. Our key findings are threefold. First, the choice of the extent has a substantial influence on the estimation of the variogram. A comparatively small ratio of the extent to the correlation length is beneficial for variogram estimation. Second, a combination of a minimum sample size of 150, a design that ensures the sampling of small distances and variogram estimation by residual maximum likelihood offers a good compromise between accuracy and efficiency. Third, studies relying on method-of-moments based variogram estimation may have to employ at least 200 sampling points for reliable variogram estimates. These suggested sample sizes exceed the number recommended by studies dealing with Gaussian data by up to 100 %. Given that most previous

  20. Hospital survey on patient safety culture: psychometric analysis on a Scottish sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarac, Cakil; Flin, Rhona; Mearns, Kathryn; Jackson, Jeanette

    2011-10-01

    To investigate the psychometric properties of the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture on a Scottish NHS data set. The data were collected from 1969 clinical staff (estimated 22% response rate) from one acute hospital from each of seven Scottish Health boards. Using a split-half validation technique, the data were randomly split; an exploratory factor analysis was conducted on the calibration data set, and confirmatory factor analyses were conducted on the validation data set to investigate and check the original US model fit in a Scottish sample. Following the split-half validation technique, exploratory factor analysis results showed a 10-factor optimal measurement model. The confirmatory factor analyses were then performed to compare the model fit of two competing models (10-factor alternative model vs 12-factor original model). An S-B scaled χ(2) square difference test demonstrated that the original 12-factor model performed significantly better in a Scottish sample. Furthermore, reliability analyses of each component yielded satisfactory results. The mean scores on the climate dimensions in the Scottish sample were comparable with those found in other European countries. This study provided evidence that the original 12-factor structure of the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture scale has been replicated in this Scottish sample. Therefore, no modifications are required to the original 12-factor model, which is suggested for use, since it would allow researchers the possibility of cross-national comparisons.

  1. Power Spectrum Estimation of Randomly Sampled Signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Velte, C. M.; Buchhave, P.; K. George, W.

    algorithms; sample and-hold and the direct spectral estimator without residence time weighting. The computer generated signal is a Poisson process with a sample rate proportional to velocity magnitude that consist of well-defined frequency content, which makes bias easy to spot. The idea...

  2. [The methodology and sample description of the National Survey on Addiction Problems in Hungary 2015 (NSAPH 2015)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paksi, Borbala; Demetrovics, Zsolt; Magi, Anna; Felvinczi, Katalin

    2017-06-01

    This paper introduces the methods and methodological findings of the National Survey on Addiction Problems in Hungary (NSAPH 2015). Use patterns of smoking, alcohol use and other psychoactive substances were measured as well as that of certain behavioural addictions (problematic gambling - PGSI, DSM-V, eating disorders - SCOFF, problematic internet use - PIUQ, problematic on-line gaming - POGO, problematic social media use - FAS, exercise addictions - EAI-HU, work addiction - BWAS, compulsive buying - CBS). The paper describes the applied measurement techniques, sample selection, recruitment of respondents and the data collection strategy as well. Methodological results of the survey including reliability and validity of the measures are reported. The NSAPH 2015 research was carried out on a nationally representative sample of the Hungarian adult population aged 16-64 yrs (gross sample 2477, net sample 2274 persons) with the age group of 18-34 being overrepresented. Statistical analysis of the weight-distribution suggests that weighting did not create any artificial distortion in the database leaving the representativeness of the sample unaffected. The size of the weighted sample of the 18-64 years old adult population is 1490 persons. The extent of the theoretical margin of error in the weighted sample is ±2,5%, at a reliability level of 95% which is in line with the original data collection plans. Based on the analysis of reliability and the extent of errors beyond sampling within the context of the database we conclude that inconsistencies create relatively minor distortions in cumulative prevalence rates; consequently the database makes possible the reliable estimation of risk factors related to different substance use behaviours. The reliability indexes of measurements used for prevalence estimates of behavioural addictions proved to be appropriate, though the psychometric features in some cases suggest the presence of redundant items. The comparison of

  3. Estimating abundance of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation using aerial surveys, 2011 and 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obbard, Martyn E.; Middel, Kevin R.; Stapleton, Seth P.; Thibault, Isabelle; Brodeur, Vincent; Jutras, Charles

    2013-01-01

    The Southern Hudson Bay (SH) polar bear subpopulation occurs at the southern extent of the species’ range. Although capture-recapture studies indicate that abundance remained stable between 1986 and 2005, declines in body condition and survival were documented during the period, possibly foreshadowing a future decrease in abundance. To obtain a current estimate of abundance, we conducted a comprehensive line transect aerial survey of SH during 2011–2012. We stratified the study site by anticipated densities and flew coastal contour transects and systematically spaced inland transects in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and large offshore islands in 2011. Data were collected with double observer and distance sampling protocols. We also surveyed small islands in Hudson Bay and James Bay and flew a comprehensive transect along the Québec coastline in 2012. We observed 667 bears in Ontario and on Akimiski Island and nearby islands in 2011, and we sighted 80 bears on offshore islands during 2012. Mark-recapture distance sampling and sightresight models yielded a model-averaged estimate of 868 (SE: 177) for the 2011 study area. Our estimate of abundance for the entire SH subpopulation (951; SE: 177) suggests that abundance has remained unchanged. However, this result should be interpreted cautiously because of the methodological differences between historical studies (physical capture) and this survey. A conservative management approach is warranted given the previous increases in the duration of the ice-free season, which are predicted to continue in the future, and previously documented declines in body condition and vital rates.

  4. Efficient estimation for ergodic diffusions sampled at high frequency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Michael

    A general theory of efficient estimation for ergodic diffusions sampled at high fre- quency is presented. High frequency sampling is now possible in many applications, in particular in finance. The theory is formulated in term of approximate martingale estimating functions and covers a large class...

  5. Estimation of sample size and testing power (part 5).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

    2012-02-01

    Estimation of sample size and testing power is an important component of research design. This article introduced methods for sample size and testing power estimation of difference test for quantitative and qualitative data with the single-group design, the paired design or the crossover design. To be specific, this article introduced formulas for sample size and testing power estimation of difference test for quantitative and qualitative data with the above three designs, the realization based on the formulas and the POWER procedure of SAS software and elaborated it with examples, which will benefit researchers for implementing the repetition principle.

  6. Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natesan, Prathiba

    2015-01-01

    Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading

  7. Issues in environmental survey design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iachan, R.

    1989-01-01

    Several environmental survey design issues are discussed and illustrated with surveys designed by Research Triangle Institute statisticians. Issues related to sampling and nonsampling errors are illustrated for indoor air quality surveys, radon surveys, pesticide surveys, and occupational and personal exposure surveys. Sample design issues include the use of auxiliary information (e.g. for stratification), and sampling in time. We also discuss the reduction and estimation of nonsampling errors, including nonresponse and measurement bias

  8. Choosing a Cluster Sampling Design for Lot Quality Assurance Sampling Surveys

    OpenAIRE

    Hund, Lauren; Bedrick, Edward J.; Pagano, Marcello

    2015-01-01

    Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) surveys are commonly used for monitoring and evaluation in resource-limited settings. Recently several methods have been proposed to combine LQAS with cluster sampling for more timely and cost-effective data collection. For some of these methods, the standard binomial model can be used for constructing decision rules as the clustering can be ignored. For other designs, considered here, clustering is accommodated in the design phase. In this paper, we comp...

  9. Estimation of creatinine in Urine sample by Jaffe's method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wankhede, Sonal; Arunkumar, Suja; Sawant, Pramilla D.; Rao, B.B.

    2012-01-01

    In-vitro bioassay monitoring is based on the determination of activity concentrations in biological samples excreted from the body and is most suitable for alpha and beta emitters. A truly representative bioassay sample is the one having all the voids collected during a 24-h period however, this being technically difficult, overnight urine samples collected by the workers are analyzed. These overnight urine samples are collected for 10-16 h, however in the absence of any specific information, 12 h duration is assumed and the observed results are then corrected accordingly obtain the daily excretion rate. To reduce the uncertainty due to unknown duration of sample collection, IAEA has recommended two methods viz., measurement of specific gravity and creatinine excretion rate in urine sample. Creatinine is a final metabolic product creatinine phosphate in the body and is excreted at a steady rate for people with normally functioning kidneys. It is, therefore, often used as a normalization factor for estimation of duration of sample collection. The present study reports the chemical procedure standardized and its application for the estimation of creatinine in urine samples collected from occupational workers. Chemical procedure for estimation of creatinine in bioassay samples was standardized and applied successfully for its estimation in bioassay samples collected from the workers. The creatinine excretion rate observed for these workers is lower than observed in literature. Further, work is in progress to generate a data bank of creatinine excretion rate for most of the workers and also to study the variability in creatinine coefficient for the same individual based on the analysis of samples collected for different duration

  10. Prevalence of HIV among MSM in Europe: comparison of self-reported diagnoses from a large scale internet survey and existing national estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Ulrich

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Country level comparisons of HIV prevalence among men having sex with men (MSM is challenging for a variety of reasons, including differences in the definition and measurement of the denominator group, recruitment strategies and the HIV detection methods. To assess their comparability, self-reported data on HIV diagnoses in a 2010 pan-European MSM internet survey (EMIS were compared with pre-existing estimates of HIV prevalence in MSM from a variety of European countries. Methods The first pan-European survey of MSM recruited more than 180,000 men from 38 countries across Europe and included questions on the year and result of last HIV test. HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS was compared with national estimates of HIV prevalence based on studies using biological measurements or modelling approaches to explore the degree of agreement between different methods. Existing estimates were taken from Dublin Declaration Monitoring Reports or UNAIDS country fact sheets, and were verified by contacting the nominated contact points for HIV surveillance in EU/EEA countries. Results The EMIS self-reported measurements of HIV prevalence were strongly correlated with existing estimates based on biological measurement and modelling studies using surveillance data (R2=0.70 resp. 0.72. In most countries HIV positive MSM appeared disproportionately likely to participate in EMIS, and prevalences as measured in EMIS are approximately twice the estimates based on existing estimates. Conclusions Comparison of diagnosed HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS with pre-existing estimates based on biological measurements using varied sampling frames (e.g. Respondent Driven Sampling, Time and Location Sampling demonstrates a high correlation and suggests similar selection biases from both types of studies. For comparison with modelled estimates the self-selection bias of the Internet survey with increased participation of men diagnosed with HIV has to be

  11. An unbiased estimator of the variance of simple random sampling using mixed random-systematic sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Padilla, Alberto

    2009-01-01

    Systematic sampling is a commonly used technique due to its simplicity and ease of implementation. The drawback of this simplicity is that it is not possible to estimate the design variance without bias. There are several ways to circumvent this problem. One method is to suppose that the variable of interest has a random order in the population, so the sample variance of simple random sampling without replacement is used. By means of a mixed random - systematic sample, an unbiased estimator o...

  12. Comparison of Four Estimators under sampling without Replacement

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results were obtained using a program written in Microsoft Visual C++ programming language. It was observed that the two-stage sampling under unequal probabilities without replacement is always better than the other three estimators considered. Keywords: Unequal probability sampling, two-stage sampling, ...

  13. Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Seliske

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

  14. Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiang; Wang, Wenqian; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

    2014-12-19

    In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in several directions. First, we show that the sample standard deviation estimation in Hozo et al.'s method (BMC Med Res Methodol 5:13, 2005) has some serious limitations and is always less satisfactory in practice. Inspired by this, we propose a new estimation method by incorporating the sample size. Second, we systematically study the sample mean and standard deviation estimation problem under several other interesting settings where the interquartile range is also available for the trials. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies for the three frequently encountered scenarios, respectively. For the first two scenarios, our method greatly improves existing methods and provides a nearly unbiased estimate of the true sample standard deviation for normal data and a slightly biased estimate for skewed data. For the third scenario, our method still performs very well for both normal data and skewed data. Furthermore, we compare the estimators of the sample mean and standard deviation under all three scenarios and present some suggestions on which scenario is preferred in real-world applications. In this paper, we discuss different approximation methods in the estimation of the sample mean and standard deviation and propose some new estimation methods to improve the existing literature. We conclude our work with a summary table (an Excel spread sheet including all formulas) that serves as a comprehensive guidance for performing meta-analysis in different

  15. Comparison of NIS and NHIS/NIPRCS vaccination coverage estimates. National Immunization Survey. National Health Interview Survey/National Immunization Provider Record Check Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, D L; Ezzati-Rice, T M; Stokley, S; Zhao, Z

    2001-05-01

    The National Immunization Survey (NIS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) produce national coverage estimates for children aged 19 months to 35 months. The NIS is a cost-effective, random-digit-dialing telephone survey that produces national and state-level vaccination coverage estimates. The National Immunization Provider Record Check Study (NIPRCS) is conducted in conjunction with the annual NHIS, which is a face-to-face household survey. As the NIS is a telephone survey, potential coverage bias exists as the survey excludes children living in nontelephone households. To assess the validity of estimates of vaccine coverage from the NIS, we compared 1995 and 1996 NIS national estimates with results from the NHIS/NIPRCS for the same years. Both the NIS and the NHIS/NIPRCS produce similar results. The NHIS/NIPRCS supports the findings of the NIS.

  16. Systematic sampling with errors in sample locations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ziegel, Johanna; Baddeley, Adrian; Dorph-Petersen, Karl-Anton

    2010-01-01

    analysis using point process methods. We then analyze three different models for the error process, calculate exact expressions for the variances, and derive asymptotic variances. Errors in the placement of sample points can lead to substantial inflation of the variance, dampening of zitterbewegung......Systematic sampling of points in continuous space is widely used in microscopy and spatial surveys. Classical theory provides asymptotic expressions for the variance of estimators based on systematic sampling as the grid spacing decreases. However, the classical theory assumes that the sample grid...... is exactly periodic; real physical sampling procedures may introduce errors in the placement of the sample points. This paper studies the effect of errors in sample positioning on the variance of estimators in the case of one-dimensional systematic sampling. First we sketch a general approach to variance...

  17. Estimating fluvial wood discharge from timelapse photography with varying sampling intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, N. K.

    2013-12-01

    There is recent focus on calculating wood budgets for streams and rivers to help inform management decisions, ecological studies and carbon/nutrient cycling models. Most work has measured in situ wood in temporary storage along stream banks or estimated wood inputs from banks. Little effort has been employed monitoring and quantifying wood in transport during high flows. This paper outlines a procedure for estimating total seasonal wood loads using non-continuous coarse interval sampling and examines differences in estimation between sampling at 1, 5, 10 and 15 minutes. Analysis is performed on wood transport for the Slave River in Northwest Territories, Canada. Relative to the 1 minute dataset, precision decreased by 23%, 46% and 60% for the 5, 10 and 15 minute datasets, respectively. Five and 10 minute sampling intervals provided unbiased equal variance estimates of 1 minute sampling, whereas 15 minute intervals were biased towards underestimation by 6%. Stratifying estimates by day and by discharge increased precision over non-stratification by 4% and 3%, respectively. Not including wood transported during ice break-up, the total minimum wood load estimated at this site is 3300 × 800$ m3 for the 2012 runoff season. The vast majority of the imprecision in total wood volumes came from variance in estimating average volume per log. Comparison of proportions and variance across sample intervals using bootstrap sampling to achieve equal n. Each trial was sampled for n=100, 10,000 times and averaged. All trials were then averaged to obtain an estimate for each sample interval. Dashed lines represent values from the one minute dataset.

  18. Effects of systematic sampling on satellite estimates of deforestation rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steininger, M K; Godoy, F; Harper, G

    2009-01-01

    Options for satellite monitoring of deforestation rates over large areas include the use of sampling. Sampling may reduce the cost of monitoring but is also a source of error in estimates of areas and rates. A common sampling approach is systematic sampling, in which sample units of a constant size are distributed in some regular manner, such as a grid. The proposed approach for the 2010 Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a systematic sample of 10 km wide squares at every 1 deg. intersection of latitude and longitude. We assessed the outcome of this and other systematic samples for estimating deforestation at national, sub-national and continental levels. The study is based on digital data on deforestation patterns for the five Amazonian countries outside Brazil plus the Brazilian Amazon. We tested these schemes by varying sample-unit size and frequency. We calculated two estimates of sampling error. First we calculated the standard errors, based on the size, variance and covariance of the samples, and from this calculated the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Second, we calculated the actual errors, based on the difference between the sample-based estimates and the estimates from the full-coverage maps. At the continental level, the 1 deg., 10 km scheme had a CI of 21% and an actual error of 8%. At the national level, this scheme had CIs of 126% for Ecuador and up to 67% for other countries. At this level, increasing sampling density to every 0.25 deg. produced a CI of 32% for Ecuador and CIs of up to 25% for other countries, with only Brazil having a CI of less than 10%. Actual errors were within the limits of the CIs in all but two of the 56 cases. Actual errors were half or less of the CIs in all but eight of these cases. These results indicate that the FRA 2010 should have CIs of smaller than or close to 10% at the continental level. However, systematic sampling at the national level yields large CIs unless the

  19. National-scale crop type mapping and area estimation using multi-resolution remote sensing and field survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, X. P.; Potapov, P.; Adusei, B.; King, L.; Khan, A.; Krylov, A.; Di Bella, C. M.; Pickens, A. H.; Stehman, S. V.; Hansen, M.

    2016-12-01

    Reliable and timely information on agricultural production is essential for ensuring world food security. Freely available medium-resolution satellite data (e.g. Landsat, Sentinel) offer the possibility of improved global agriculture monitoring. Here we develop and test a method for estimating in-season crop acreage using a probability sample of field visits and producing wall-to-wall crop type maps at national scales. The method is first illustrated for soybean cultivated area in the US for 2015. A stratified, two-stage cluster sampling design was used to collect field data to estimate national soybean area. The field-based estimate employed historical soybean extent maps from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer to delineate and stratify U.S. soybean growing regions. The estimated 2015 U.S. soybean cultivated area based on the field sample was 341,000 km2 with a standard error of 23,000 km2. This result is 1.0% lower than USDA's 2015 June survey estimate and 1.9% higher than USDA's 2016 January estimate. Our area estimate was derived in early September, about 2 months ahead of harvest. To map soybean cover, the Landsat image archive for the year 2015 growing season was processed using an active learning approach. Overall accuracy of the soybean map was 84%. The field-based sample estimated area was then used to calibrate the map such that the soybean acreage of the map derived through pixel counting matched the sample-based area estimate. The strength of the sample-based area estimation lies in the stratified design that takes advantage of the spatially explicit cropland layers to construct the strata. The success of the mapping was built upon an automated system which transforms Landsat images into standardized time-series metrics. The developed method produces reliable and timely information on soybean area in a cost-effective way and could be implemented in an operational mode. The approach has also been applied for other crops in

  20. Optimizing Sampling Efficiency for Biomass Estimation Across NEON Domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abercrombie, H. H.; Meier, C. L.; Spencer, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    Over the course of 30 years, the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) will measure plant biomass and productivity across the U.S. to enable an understanding of terrestrial carbon cycle responses to ecosystem change drivers. Over the next several years, prior to operational sampling at a site, NEON will complete construction and characterization phases during which a limited amount of sampling will be done at each site to inform sampling designs, and guide standardization of data collection across all sites. Sampling biomass in 60+ sites distributed among 20 different eco-climatic domains poses major logistical and budgetary challenges. Traditional biomass sampling methods such as clip harvesting and direct measurements of Leaf Area Index (LAI) involve collecting and processing plant samples, and are time and labor intensive. Possible alternatives include using indirect sampling methods for estimating LAI such as digital hemispherical photography (DHP) or using a LI-COR 2200 Plant Canopy Analyzer. These LAI estimations can then be used as a proxy for biomass. The biomass estimates calculated can then inform the clip harvest sampling design during NEON operations, optimizing both sample size and number so that standardized uncertainty limits can be achieved with a minimum amount of sampling effort. In 2011, LAI and clip harvest data were collected from co-located sampling points at the Central Plains Experimental Range located in northern Colorado, a short grass steppe ecosystem that is the NEON Domain 10 core site. LAI was measured with a LI-COR 2200 Plant Canopy Analyzer. The layout of the sampling design included four, 300 meter transects, with clip harvests plots spaced every 50m, and LAI sub-transects spaced every 10m. LAI was measured at four points along 6m sub-transects running perpendicular to the 300m transect. Clip harvest plots were co-located 4m from corresponding LAI transects, and had dimensions of 0.1m by 2m. We conducted regression analyses

  1. Evaluation of Respondent-Driven Sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreesh, Nicky; Frost, Simon; Seeley, Janet; Katongole, Joseph; Tarsh, Matilda Ndagire; Ndunguse, Richard; Jichi, Fatima; Lunel, Natasha L; Maher, Dermot; Johnston, Lisa G; Sonnenberg, Pam; Copas, Andrew J; Hayes, Richard J; White, Richard G

    2012-01-01

    Background Respondent-driven sampling is a novel variant of link-tracing sampling for estimating the characteristics of hard-to-reach groups, such as HIV prevalence in sex-workers. Despite its use by leading health organizations, the performance of this method in realistic situations is still largely unknown. We evaluated respondent-driven sampling by comparing estimates from a respondent-driven sampling survey with total-population data. Methods Total-population data on age, tribe, religion, socioeconomic status, sexual activity and HIV status were available on a population of 2402 male household-heads from an open cohort in rural Uganda. A respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey was carried out in this population, employing current methods of sampling (RDS sample) and statistical inference (RDS estimates). Analyses were carried out for the full RDS sample and then repeated for the first 250 recruits (small sample). Results We recruited 927 household-heads. Full and small RDS samples were largely representative of the total population, but both samples under-represented men who were younger, of higher socioeconomic status, and with unknown sexual activity and HIV status. Respondent-driven-sampling statistical-inference methods failed to reduce these biases. Only 31%-37% (depending on method and sample size) of RDS estimates were closer to the true population proportions than the RDS sample proportions. Only 50%-74% of respondent-driven-sampling bootstrap 95% confidence intervals included the population proportion. Conclusions Respondent-driven sampling produced a generally representative sample of this well-connected non-hidden population. However, current respondent-driven-sampling inference methods failed to reduce bias when it occurred. Whether the data required to remove bias and measure precision can be collected in a respondent-driven sampling survey is unresolved. Respondent-driven sampling should be regarded as a (potentially superior) form of convenience-sampling

  2. Evaluation of respondent-driven sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCreesh, Nicky; Frost, Simon D W; Seeley, Janet; Katongole, Joseph; Tarsh, Matilda N; Ndunguse, Richard; Jichi, Fatima; Lunel, Natasha L; Maher, Dermot; Johnston, Lisa G; Sonnenberg, Pam; Copas, Andrew J; Hayes, Richard J; White, Richard G

    2012-01-01

    Respondent-driven sampling is a novel variant of link-tracing sampling for estimating the characteristics of hard-to-reach groups, such as HIV prevalence in sex workers. Despite its use by leading health organizations, the performance of this method in realistic situations is still largely unknown. We evaluated respondent-driven sampling by comparing estimates from a respondent-driven sampling survey with total population data. Total population data on age, tribe, religion, socioeconomic status, sexual activity, and HIV status were available on a population of 2402 male household heads from an open cohort in rural Uganda. A respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey was carried out in this population, using current methods of sampling (RDS sample) and statistical inference (RDS estimates). Analyses were carried out for the full RDS sample and then repeated for the first 250 recruits (small sample). We recruited 927 household heads. Full and small RDS samples were largely representative of the total population, but both samples underrepresented men who were younger, of higher socioeconomic status, and with unknown sexual activity and HIV status. Respondent-driven sampling statistical inference methods failed to reduce these biases. Only 31%-37% (depending on method and sample size) of RDS estimates were closer to the true population proportions than the RDS sample proportions. Only 50%-74% of respondent-driven sampling bootstrap 95% confidence intervals included the population proportion. Respondent-driven sampling produced a generally representative sample of this well-connected nonhidden population. However, current respondent-driven sampling inference methods failed to reduce bias when it occurred. Whether the data required to remove bias and measure precision can be collected in a respondent-driven sampling survey is unresolved. Respondent-driven sampling should be regarded as a (potentially superior) form of convenience sampling method, and caution is required

  3. A Survey of Blue-Noise Sampling and Its Applications

    KAUST Repository

    Yan, Dongming; Guo, Jian-Wei; Wang, Bin; Zhang, Xiao-Peng; Wonka, Peter

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we survey recent approaches to blue-noise sampling and discuss their beneficial applications. We discuss the sampling algorithms that use points as sampling primitives and classify the sampling algorithms based on various aspects, e.g., the sampling domain and the type of algorithm. We demonstrate several well-known applications that can be improved by recent blue-noise sampling techniques, as well as some new applications such as dynamic sampling and blue-noise remeshing.

  4. A Survey of Blue-Noise Sampling and Its Applications

    KAUST Repository

    Yan, Dongming

    2015-05-05

    In this paper, we survey recent approaches to blue-noise sampling and discuss their beneficial applications. We discuss the sampling algorithms that use points as sampling primitives and classify the sampling algorithms based on various aspects, e.g., the sampling domain and the type of algorithm. We demonstrate several well-known applications that can be improved by recent blue-noise sampling techniques, as well as some new applications such as dynamic sampling and blue-noise remeshing.

  5. A Study on the Representative Sampling Survey for Radionuclide Analysis of RI Waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jee, K. Y. [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juyoul; Jung, Gunhyo [FNC Tech. Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-15

    We developed a quantitative method for attaining a representative sample during sampling survey of RI waste. Considering a source, process, and type of RI waste, the method computes the number of sample, confidence interval, variance, and coefficient of variance. We also systematize the method of sampling survey logically and quantitatively. The result of this study can be applied to sampling survey of low- and intermediate-level waste generated from nuclear power plant during the transfer process to disposal facility.

  6. BMR in a Brazilian adult probability sample: the Nutrition, Physical Activity and Health Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anjos, Luiz A; Wahrlich, Vivian; Vasconcellos, Mauricio Tl

    2014-04-01

    To measure BMR in a probability sample of adults from an urban city of Brazil and to compare indirectly measured BMR (BMRi) with BMR predicted from different equations. BMR data were obtained by indirect calorimetry and estimated by different predictive equations (Schofield; Harris and Benedict; Henry and Rees). Anthropometric and body composition measures were also obtained. The Nutrition, Physical Activity and Health Survey (PNAFS), a household survey conducted in Niterói, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. Representative sample of 529 adults (aged ≥20 years; 339 females) living in Niterói, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. Mean BMRi values were 5839.7 (se 73.9) kJ/d and 4758.1 (se 39.5) kJ/d for men and women, respectively. Predicted BMR by all equations was significantly higher (difference between means and 95% CI did not include zero) than BMRi in both men and women of all ages. Overall bias in BMR (predicted BMR minus BMRi) using the Schofield equations (overestimation of about 20%) was higher than when using the Henry and Rees equations (13% and 16% overestimation for males and females, respectively). The percentage of individuals whose BMR predicted by the Schofield equations fell within 10% of BMRi was very low (7.8% and 14.1% of males nd females, respectively). Current available predictive equations of BMR are not adequate to estimate BMR in Brazilians living in Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

  7. Regional soil erosion assessment based on a sample survey and geostatistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Shuiqing; Zhu, Zhengyuan; Wang, Li; Liu, Baoyuan; Xie, Yun; Wang, Guannan; Li, Yishan

    2018-03-01

    Soil erosion is one of the most significant environmental problems in China. From 2010 to 2012, the fourth national census for soil erosion sampled 32 364 PSUs (Primary Sampling Units, small watersheds) with the areas of 0.2-3 km2. Land use and soil erosion controlling factors including rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length, slope steepness, biological practice, engineering practice, and tillage practice for the PSUs were surveyed, and the soil loss rate for each land use in the PSUs was estimated using an empirical model, the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE). Though the information collected from the sample units can be aggregated to estimate soil erosion conditions on a large scale; the problem of estimating soil erosion condition on a regional scale has not been addressed well. The aim of this study is to introduce a new model-based regional soil erosion assessment method combining a sample survey and geostatistics. We compared seven spatial interpolation models based on the bivariate penalized spline over triangulation (BPST) method to generate a regional soil erosion assessment from the PSUs. Shaanxi Province (3116 PSUs) in China was selected for the comparison and assessment as it is one of the areas with the most serious erosion problem. Ten-fold cross-validation based on the PSU data showed the model assisted by the land use, rainfall erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), slope steepness factor (S), and slope length factor (L) derived from a 1 : 10 000 topography map is the best one, with the model efficiency coefficient (ME) being 0.75 and the MSE being 55.8 % of that for the model assisted by the land use alone. Among four erosion factors as the covariates, the S factor contributed the most information, followed by K and L factors, and R factor made almost no contribution to the spatial estimation of soil loss. The LS factor derived from 30 or 90 m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) data

  8. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

    2015-01-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  9. An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

    2015-02-01

    Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

  10. Estimating the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Age Using Synoptic Surveys of Environmental Tracers in Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, W. P.

    2017-12-01

    A model which simulates tracer concentration in surface water as a function the age distribution of groundwater discharge is used to characterize groundwater flow systems at a variety of spatial scales. We develop the theory behind the model and demonstrate its application in several groundwater systems of local to regional scale. A 1-D stream transport model, which includes: advection, dispersion, gas exchange, first-order decay and groundwater inflow is coupled a lumped parameter model that calculates the concentration of environmental tracers in discharging groundwater as a function of the groundwater residence time distribution. The lumped parameters, which describe the residence time distribution, are allowed to vary spatially, and multiple environmental tracers can be simulated. This model allows us to calculate the longitudinal profile of tracer concentration in streams as a function of the spatially variable groundwater age distribution. By fitting model results to observations of stream chemistry and discharge, we can then estimate the spatial distribution of groundwater age. The volume of groundwater discharge to streams can be estimated using a subset of environmental tracers, applied tracers, synoptic stream gauging or other methods, and the age of groundwater then estimated using the previously calculated groundwater discharge and observed environmental tracer concentrations. Synoptic surveys of SF6, CFC's, 3H and 222Rn, along with measured stream discharge are used to estimate the groundwater inflow distribution and mean age for regional scale surveys of the Berland River in west-central Alberta. We find that groundwater entering the Berland has observable age, and that the age estimated using our stream survey is of similar order to limited samples from groundwater wells in the region. Our results show that the stream can be used as an easily accessible location to constrain the regional scale spatial distribution of groundwater age.

  11. Distance estimation experiment for aerial minke whale surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Witting

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available A comparative study between aerial cue–counting and digital photography surveys for minke whales conducted in Faxaflói Bay in September 2003 is used to check the perpendicular distances estimated by the cue-counting observers. The study involved 2 aircraft with the photo plane at 1,700 feet flying above the cue–counting plane at 750 feet. The observer–based distance estimates were calculated from head angles estimated by angle-boards and declination angles estimated by declinometers. These distances were checked against image–based estimates of the perpendicular distance to the same whale. The 2 independent distance estimates were obtained for 21 sightings of minke whale, and there was a good agreement between the 2 types of estimates. The relative absolute deviations between the 2 estimates were on average 23% (se: 6%, with the errors in the observer–based distance estimates resembling that of a log-normal distribution. The linear regression of the observer–based estimates (obs on the image–based estimates (img was Obs=1.1Img (R2=0.85 with an intercept fixed at zero. There was no evidence of a distance estimation bias that could generate a positive bias in the absolute abundance estimated by cue–counting.

  12. Estimation after classification using lot quality assurance sampling: corrections for curtailed sampling with application to evaluating polio vaccination campaigns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olives, Casey; Valadez, Joseph J; Pagano, Marcello

    2014-03-01

    To assess the bias incurred when curtailment of Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) is ignored, to present unbiased estimators, to consider the impact of cluster sampling by simulation and to apply our method to published polio immunization data from Nigeria. We present estimators of coverage when using two kinds of curtailed LQAS strategies: semicurtailed and curtailed. We study the proposed estimators with independent and clustered data using three field-tested LQAS designs for assessing polio vaccination coverage, with samples of size 60 and decision rules of 9, 21 and 33, and compare them to biased maximum likelihood estimators. Lastly, we present estimates of polio vaccination coverage from previously published data in 20 local government authorities (LGAs) from five Nigerian states. Simulations illustrate substantial bias if one ignores the curtailed sampling design. Proposed estimators show no bias. Clustering does not affect the bias of these estimators. Across simulations, standard errors show signs of inflation as clustering increases. Neither sampling strategy nor LQAS design influences estimates of polio vaccination coverage in 20 Nigerian LGAs. When coverage is low, semicurtailed LQAS strategies considerably reduces the sample size required to make a decision. Curtailed LQAS designs further reduce the sample size when coverage is high. Results presented dispel the misconception that curtailed LQAS data are unsuitable for estimation. These findings augment the utility of LQAS as a tool for monitoring vaccination efforts by demonstrating that unbiased estimation using curtailed designs is not only possible but these designs also reduce the sample size. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. A survey of archaeological samples dated in 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejdahl, V.

    1985-10-01

    A survey is given of archaeological samples dated in 1984 at the Nordic Laboratory for Thermoluminescence Dating. A total of 79 samples were dated, 49 of which were burnt stones. All results were corrected for fading as measured for samples stored for four weeks at room temperature. The alpha dose contribution from uranium in the quartz and feldspar grains was included assuming an alpha efficiency facotr of 0.1 for quartz and 0.2 for feldspars. (author)

  14. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Chae, Hyeseon; Min, Kyungdoo; Youn, kanwoo; Park, Jinwoo; Kim, Kyungran; Kim, Hyocher; Lee, Kyungsuk

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. Methods The first Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. ...

  15. An alternative procedure for estimating the population mean in simple random sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Housila P. Singh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the problem of estimating the finite population mean using auxiliary information in simple random sampling. Firstly we have suggested a correction to the mean squared error of the estimator proposed by Gupta and Shabbir [On improvement in estimating the population mean in simple random sampling. Jour. Appl. Statist. 35(5 (2008, pp. 559-566]. Later we have proposed a ratio type estimator and its properties are studied in simple random sampling. Numerically we have shown that the proposed class of estimators is more efficient than different known estimators including Gupta and Shabbir (2008 estimator.

  16. Comparison of sampling techniques for Bayesian parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allison, Rupert; Dunkley, Joanna

    2014-02-01

    The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the posterior probability distribution we have to decide how to explore parameter space. Here we compare three prescriptions for how parameter space is navigated, discussing their relative merits. We consider Metropolis-Hasting sampling, nested sampling and affine-invariant ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We focus on their performance on toy-model Gaussian likelihoods and on a real-world cosmological data set. We outline the sampling algorithms themselves and elaborate on performance diagnostics such as convergence time, scope for parallelization, dimensional scaling, requisite tunings and suitability for non-Gaussian distributions. We find that nested sampling delivers high-fidelity estimates for posterior statistics at low computational cost, and should be adopted in favour of Metropolis-Hastings in many cases. Affine-invariant MCMC is competitive when computing clusters can be utilized for massive parallelization. Affine-invariant MCMC and existing extensions to nested sampling naturally probe multimodal and curving distributions.

  17. Comparing two survey methods for estimating maternal and perinatal mortality in rural Cambodia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandy, Hoeuy; Heng, Yang Van; Samol, Ha; Husum, Hans

    2008-03-01

    We need solid estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) to monitor the impact of maternal care programs. Cambodian health authorities and WHO report the MMR in Cambodia at 450 per 100,000 live births. The figure is drawn from surveys where information is obtained by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their adult sisters (sisterhood method). The estimate is statistically imprecise, 95% confidence intervals ranging from 260 to 620/100,000. The MMR estimate is also uncertain due to under-reporting; where 80-90% of women deliver at home maternal fatalities may go undetected especially where mortality is highest, in remote rural areas. The aim of this study was to attain more reliable MMR estimates by using survey methods other than the sisterhood method prior to an intervention targeting obstetric rural emergencies. The study was carried out in rural Northwestern Cambodia where access to health services is poor and poverty, endemic diseases, and land mines are endemic. Two survey methods were applied in two separate sectors: a community-based survey gathering data from public sources and a household survey gathering data direct from primary sources. There was no statistically significant difference between the two survey results for maternal deaths, both types of survey reported mortality rates around the public figure. The household survey reported a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate as compared to the community-based survey, 8.6% versus 5.0%. Also the household survey gave qualitative data important for a better understanding of the many problems faced by mothers giving birth in the remote villages. There are detection failures in both surveys; the failure rate may be as high as 30-40%. PRINCIPLE CONCLUSION: Both survey methods are inaccurate, therefore inappropriate for evaluation of short-term changes of mortality rates. Surveys based on primary informants yield qualitative information about mothers' hardships important for the design

  18. Multilevel systematic sampling to estimate total fruit number for yield forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulfsohn, Dvora-Laio; Zamora, Felipe Aravena; Tellez, Camilla Potin

    2012-01-01

    procedure for unbiased estimation of fruit number for yield forecasts. In the Spring of 2009 we estimated the total number of fruit in several rows of each of 14 commercial fruit orchards growing apple (11 groves), kiwifruit (two groves), and table grapes (one grove) in central Chile. Survey times were 10...

  19. THE NEXT GENERATION VIRGO CLUSTER SURVEY. XV. THE PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFT ESTIMATION FOR BACKGROUND SOURCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raichoor, A.; Mei, S.; Huertas-Company, M.; Licitra, R.; Erben, T.; Hildebrandt, H.; Ilbert, O.; Boissier, S.; Boselli, A.; Ball, N. M.; Côté, P.; Ferrarese, L.; Gwyn, S. D. J.; Kavelaars, J. J.; Chen, Y.-T.; Cuillandre, J.-C.; Duc, P. A.; Durrell, P. R.; Guhathakurta, P.; Lançon, A.

    2014-01-01

    The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS) is an optical imaging survey covering 104 deg 2 centered on the Virgo cluster. Currently, the complete survey area has been observed in the u*giz bands and one third in the r band. We present the photometric redshift estimation for the NGVS background sources. After a dedicated data reduction, we perform accurate photometry, with special attention to precise color measurements through point-spread function homogenization. We then estimate the photometric redshifts with the Le Phare and BPZ codes. We add a new prior that extends to i AB = 12.5 mag. When using the u* griz bands, our photometric redshifts for 15.5 mag ≤ i ≲ 23 mag or z phot ≲ 1 galaxies have a bias |Δz| < 0.02, less than 5% outliers, a scatter σ outl.rej. , and an individual error on z phot that increases with magnitude (from 0.02 to 0.05 and from 0.03 to 0.10, respectively). When using the u*giz bands over the same magnitude and redshift range, the lack of the r band increases the uncertainties in the 0.3 ≲ z phot ≲ 0.8 range (–0.05 < Δz < –0.02, σ outl.rej ∼ 0.06, 10%-15% outliers, and z phot.err. ∼ 0.15). We also present a joint analysis of the photometric redshift accuracy as a function of redshift and magnitude. We assess the quality of our photometric redshifts by comparison to spectroscopic samples and by verifying that the angular auto- and cross-correlation function w(θ) of the entire NGVS photometric redshift sample across redshift bins is in agreement with the expectations

  20. THE NEXT GENERATION VIRGO CLUSTER SURVEY. XV. THE PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFT ESTIMATION FOR BACKGROUND SOURCES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raichoor, A.; Mei, S.; Huertas-Company, M.; Licitra, R. [GEPI, Observatoire de Paris, CNRS, Université Paris Diderot, 61 Avenue de l' Observatoire, F-75014 Paris (France); Erben, T.; Hildebrandt, H. [Argelander-Institut für Astronomie, University of Bonn, Auf dem Hügel 71, D-53121 Bonn (Germany); Ilbert, O.; Boissier, S.; Boselli, A. [Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille, UMR 7326, F-13388 Marseille (France); Ball, N. M.; Côté, P.; Ferrarese, L.; Gwyn, S. D. J.; Kavelaars, J. J. [Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics, National Research Council of Canada, Victoria, BC V9E 2E7 (Canada); Chen, Y.-T. [Insitute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Academia Sinica, P.O. Box 23-141, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Cuillandre, J.-C. [Canada-France-Hawaïi Telescope Corporation, Kamuela, HI 96743 (United States); Duc, P. A. [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU/SAp, CNRS/INSU, Université Paris Diderot, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Durrell, P. R. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Youngstown State University, Youngstown, OH 44555 (United States); Guhathakurta, P. [UCO/Lick Observatory, Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California Santa Cruz, 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Lançon, A., E-mail: anand.raichoor@obspm.fr [Observatoire Astronomique de Strasbourg, Université de Strasbourg, CNRS, UMR 7550, 11 rue de l' Université, F-67000 Strasbourg (France); and others

    2014-12-20

    The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS) is an optical imaging survey covering 104 deg{sup 2} centered on the Virgo cluster. Currently, the complete survey area has been observed in the u*giz bands and one third in the r band. We present the photometric redshift estimation for the NGVS background sources. After a dedicated data reduction, we perform accurate photometry, with special attention to precise color measurements through point-spread function homogenization. We then estimate the photometric redshifts with the Le Phare and BPZ codes. We add a new prior that extends to i {sub AB} = 12.5 mag. When using the u* griz bands, our photometric redshifts for 15.5 mag ≤ i ≲ 23 mag or z {sub phot} ≲ 1 galaxies have a bias |Δz| < 0.02, less than 5% outliers, a scatter σ{sub outl.rej.}, and an individual error on z {sub phot} that increases with magnitude (from 0.02 to 0.05 and from 0.03 to 0.10, respectively). When using the u*giz bands over the same magnitude and redshift range, the lack of the r band increases the uncertainties in the 0.3 ≲ z {sub phot} ≲ 0.8 range (–0.05 < Δz < –0.02, σ{sub outl.rej} ∼ 0.06, 10%-15% outliers, and z {sub phot.err.} ∼ 0.15). We also present a joint analysis of the photometric redshift accuracy as a function of redshift and magnitude. We assess the quality of our photometric redshifts by comparison to spectroscopic samples and by verifying that the angular auto- and cross-correlation function w(θ) of the entire NGVS photometric redshift sample across redshift bins is in agreement with the expectations.

  1. Small sample GEE estimation of regression parameters for longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Sudhir; Zhang, Xuemao

    2014-09-28

    Longitudinal (clustered) response data arise in many bio-statistical applications which, in general, cannot be assumed to be independent. Generalized estimating equation (GEE) is a widely used method to estimate marginal regression parameters for correlated responses. The advantage of the GEE is that the estimates of the regression parameters are asymptotically unbiased even if the correlation structure is misspecified, although their small sample properties are not known. In this paper, two bias adjusted GEE estimators of the regression parameters in longitudinal data are obtained when the number of subjects is small. One is based on a bias correction, and the other is based on a bias reduction. Simulations show that the performances of both the bias-corrected methods are similar in terms of bias, efficiency, coverage probability, average coverage length, impact of misspecification of correlation structure, and impact of cluster size on bias correction. Both these methods show superior properties over the GEE estimates for small samples. Further, analysis of data involving a small number of subjects also shows improvement in bias, MSE, standard error, and length of the confidence interval of the estimates by the two bias adjusted methods over the GEE estimates. For small to moderate sample sizes (N ≤50), either of the bias-corrected methods GEEBc and GEEBr can be used. However, the method GEEBc should be preferred over GEEBr, as the former is computationally easier. For large sample sizes, the GEE method can be used. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Bayesian Simultaneous Estimation for Means in k Sample Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Imai, Ryo; Kubokawa, Tatsuya; Ghosh, Malay

    2017-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the simultaneous estimation of k population means when one suspects that the k means are nearly equal. As an alternative to the preliminary test estimator based on the test statistics for testing hypothesis of equal means, we derive Bayesian and minimax estimators which shrink individual sample means toward a pooled mean estimator given under the hypothesis. Interestingly, it is shown that both the preliminary test estimator and the Bayesian minimax shrinkage esti...

  3. Turbidity-controlled sampling for suspended sediment load estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack Lewis

    2003-01-01

    Abstract - Automated data collection is essential to effectively measure suspended sediment loads in storm events, particularly in small basins. Continuous turbidity measurements can be used, along with discharge, in an automated system that makes real-time sampling decisions to facilitate sediment load estimation. The Turbidity Threshold Sampling method distributes...

  4. Sample Archaeological Survey of Public Use Areas, Milford Lake, Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-09-01

    especially ceramics); Middle "" Mississippian, Middle Woodland and Central Plains archaeology ; the engineering and building technology of the Maya ...Sample Archaeological Survey of Public Use Areas -- 0C 0 awo (L" . .614 4.- -. 1?CNOV 1 40484 * , "n. O ji - 0" By Laura S. Schwiekhard Thn ’.iint haUs...RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) 5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Milford Lake, Kansas Sample Archaeological Survey of Public Use

  5. The Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Host Galaxy Legacy Survey. I. Sample Selection and Redshift Distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perley, D. A.; Kruhler, T.; Schulze, S.; Postigo, A. De Ugarte; Hjorth, J.; Berger, E.; Cenko, S. B.; Chary, R.; Cucchiara, A.; Ellis, R.; hide

    2016-01-01

    We introduce the Swift Gamma-Ray Burst Host Galaxy Legacy Survey (SHOALS), a multi-observatory high redshift galaxy survey targeting the largest unbiased sample of long-duration gamma-ray burst (GRB) hosts yet assembled (119 in total). We describe the motivations of the survey and the development of our selection criteria, including an assessment of the impact of various observability metrics on the success rate of afterglow-based redshift measurement. We briefly outline our host galaxy observational program, consisting of deep Spitzer/IRAC imaging of every field supplemented by similarly deep, multicolor optical/near-IR photometry, plus spectroscopy of events without preexisting redshifts. Our optimized selection cuts combined with host galaxy follow-up have so far enabled redshift measurements for 110 targets (92%) and placed upper limits on all but one of the remainder. About 20% of GRBs in the sample are heavily dust obscured, and at most 2% originate from z > 5.5. Using this sample, we estimate the redshift-dependent GRB rate density, showing it to peak at z approx. 2.5 and fall by at least an order of magnitude toward low (z = 0) redshift, while declining more gradually toward high (z approx. 7) redshift. This behavior is consistent with a progenitor whose formation efficiency varies modestly over cosmic history. Our survey will permit the most detailed examination to date of the connection between the GRB host population and general star-forming galaxies, directly measure evolution in the host population over cosmic time and discern its causes, and provide new constraints on the fraction of cosmic star formation occurring in undetectable galaxies at all redshifts.

  6. On The Use Of Network Sampling In Diabetic Surveys | Nafiu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two estimators: Hansen-Hurwitz estimator and Horvitz-Thompson estimator were considered; and the results were obtained using a program written in Microsoft Visual C++ programming language. Keywords: Graph, Sampling Frame, Households, Hansen-Hurwitz estimator and Horvitz-Thompson estimator. JORIND Vol.

  7. Estimating mean change in population salt intake using spot urine samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Kristina S; Wu, Jason H Y; Webster, Jacqui; Grimes, Carley; Woodward, Mark; Nowson, Caryl A; Neal, Bruce

    2017-10-01

    Spot urine samples are easier to collect than 24-h urine samples and have been used with estimating equations to derive the mean daily salt intake of a population. Whether equations using data from spot urine samples can also be used to estimate change in mean daily population salt intake over time is unknown. We compared estimates of change in mean daily population salt intake based upon 24-h urine collections with estimates derived using equations based on spot urine samples. Paired and unpaired 24-h urine samples and spot urine samples were collected from individuals in two Australian populations, in 2011 and 2014. Estimates of change in daily mean population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 were obtained directly from the 24-h urine samples and by applying established estimating equations (Kawasaki, Tanaka, Mage, Toft, INTERSALT) to the data from spot urine samples. Differences between 2011 and 2014 were calculated using mixed models. A total of 1000 participants provided a 24-h urine sample and a spot urine sample in 2011, and 1012 did so in 2014 (paired samples n = 870; unpaired samples n = 1142). The participants were community-dwelling individuals living in the State of Victoria or the town of Lithgow in the State of New South Wales, Australia, with a mean age of 55 years in 2011. The mean (95% confidence interval) difference in population salt intake between 2011 and 2014 determined from the 24-h urine samples was -0.48g/day (-0.74 to -0.21; P spot urine samples was -0.24 g/day (-0.42 to -0.06; P = 0.01) using the Tanaka equation, -0.42 g/day (-0.70 to -0.13; p = 0.004) using the Kawasaki equation, -0.51 g/day (-1.00 to -0.01; P = 0.046) using the Mage equation, -0.26 g/day (-0.42 to -0.10; P = 0.001) using the Toft equation, -0.20 g/day (-0.32 to -0.09; P = 0.001) using the INTERSALT equation and -0.27 g/day (-0.39 to -0.15; P  0.058). Separate analysis of the unpaired and paired data showed that detection of

  8. Estimating waste disposal quantities from raw waste samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Negin, C.A.; Urland, C.S.; Hitz, C.G.; GPU Nuclear Corp., Middletown, PA)

    1985-01-01

    Estimating the disposal quantity of waste resulting from stabilization of radioactive sludge is complex because of the many factors relating to sample analysis results, radioactive decay, allowable disposal concentrations, and options for disposal containers. To facilitate this estimation, a microcomputer spread sheet template was created. The spread sheet has saved considerable engineering hours. 1 fig., 3 tabs

  9. Iterative importance sampling algorithms for parameter estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Morzfeld, Matthias; Day, Marcus S.; Grout, Ray W.; Pau, George Shu Heng; Finsterle, Stefan A.; Bell, John B.

    2016-01-01

    In parameter estimation problems one computes a posterior distribution over uncertain parameters defined jointly by a prior distribution, a model, and noisy data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is often used for the numerical solution of such problems. An alternative to MCMC is importance sampling, which can exhibit near perfect scaling with the number of cores on high performance computing systems because samples are drawn independently. However, finding a suitable proposal distribution is ...

  10. American Community Survey (ACS) 5-Year Estimates for Coastal Geographies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The American Community Survey (ACS) is an ongoing statistical survey that samples a small percentage of the population every year. These data have been apportioned...

  11. Systematic sampling of discrete and continuous populations: sample selection and the choice of estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harry T. Valentine; David L. R. Affleck; Timothy G. Gregoire

    2009-01-01

    Systematic sampling is easy, efficient, and widely used, though it is not generally recognized that a systematic sample may be drawn from the population of interest with or without restrictions on randomization. The restrictions or the lack of them determine which estimators are unbiased, when using the sampling design as the basis for inference. We describe the...

  12. Choosing a Cluster Sampling Design for Lot Quality Assurance Sampling Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Hund

    Full Text Available Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS surveys are commonly used for monitoring and evaluation in resource-limited settings. Recently several methods have been proposed to combine LQAS with cluster sampling for more timely and cost-effective data collection. For some of these methods, the standard binomial model can be used for constructing decision rules as the clustering can be ignored. For other designs, considered here, clustering is accommodated in the design phase. In this paper, we compare these latter cluster LQAS methodologies and provide recommendations for choosing a cluster LQAS design. We compare technical differences in the three methods and determine situations in which the choice of method results in a substantively different design. We consider two different aspects of the methods: the distributional assumptions and the clustering parameterization. Further, we provide software tools for implementing each method and clarify misconceptions about these designs in the literature. We illustrate the differences in these methods using vaccination and nutrition cluster LQAS surveys as example designs. The cluster methods are not sensitive to the distributional assumptions but can result in substantially different designs (sample sizes depending on the clustering parameterization. However, none of the clustering parameterizations used in the existing methods appears to be consistent with the observed data, and, consequently, choice between the cluster LQAS methods is not straightforward. Further research should attempt to characterize clustering patterns in specific applications and provide suggestions for best-practice cluster LQAS designs on a setting-specific basis.

  13. Choosing a Cluster Sampling Design for Lot Quality Assurance Sampling Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hund, Lauren; Bedrick, Edward J; Pagano, Marcello

    2015-01-01

    Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) surveys are commonly used for monitoring and evaluation in resource-limited settings. Recently several methods have been proposed to combine LQAS with cluster sampling for more timely and cost-effective data collection. For some of these methods, the standard binomial model can be used for constructing decision rules as the clustering can be ignored. For other designs, considered here, clustering is accommodated in the design phase. In this paper, we compare these latter cluster LQAS methodologies and provide recommendations for choosing a cluster LQAS design. We compare technical differences in the three methods and determine situations in which the choice of method results in a substantively different design. We consider two different aspects of the methods: the distributional assumptions and the clustering parameterization. Further, we provide software tools for implementing each method and clarify misconceptions about these designs in the literature. We illustrate the differences in these methods using vaccination and nutrition cluster LQAS surveys as example designs. The cluster methods are not sensitive to the distributional assumptions but can result in substantially different designs (sample sizes) depending on the clustering parameterization. However, none of the clustering parameterizations used in the existing methods appears to be consistent with the observed data, and, consequently, choice between the cluster LQAS methods is not straightforward. Further research should attempt to characterize clustering patterns in specific applications and provide suggestions for best-practice cluster LQAS designs on a setting-specific basis.

  14. Survey of statistical and sampling needs for environmental monitoring of commercial low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhardt, L.L.; Thomas, J.M.

    1986-07-01

    This project was designed to develop guidance for implementing 10 CFR Part 61 and to determine the overall needs for sampling and statistical work in characterizing, surveying, monitoring, and closing commercial low-level waste sites. When cost-effectiveness and statistical reliability are of prime importance, then double sampling, compositing, and stratification (with optimal allocation) are identified as key issues. If the principal concern is avoiding questionable statistical practice, then the applicability of kriging (for assessing spatial pattern), methods for routine monitoring, and use of standard textbook formulae in reporting monitoring results should be reevaluated. Other important issues identified include sampling for estimating model parameters and the use of data from left-censored (less than detectable limits) distributions

  15. Estimates of the abundance of minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata from Faroese and Icelandic NASS shipboard surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel G Pike

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available North Atlantic Sightings Surveys for cetaceans were carried out Northeast and Central Atlantic in 1987, 1989, 1995 and 2001. Here we provide estimates of density and abundance for minke whales from the Faroese and Icelandic ship surveys. The estimates are not corrected for availability or perception biases. Double platform data collected in 2001 indicates that perception bias is likely considerable for this species. However comparison of corrected estimates of densityfrom aerial surveys with a ship survey estimate from the same area suggests that ship surveys can be nearly unbiased under optimal survey conditions with high searching effort. There were some regional changes in density over the period but no overall changes in density and abundance. Given the recent catch history for minke whales in this area, we would not expect to see changes in abundance due to exploitation that would be detectable with these surveys.

  16. Sampling strategies for estimating brook trout effective population size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew R. Whiteley; Jason A. Coombs; Mark Hudy; Zachary Robinson; Keith H. Nislow; Benjamin H. Letcher

    2012-01-01

    The influence of sampling strategy on estimates of effective population size (Ne) from single-sample genetic methods has not been rigorously examined, though these methods are increasingly used. For headwater salmonids, spatially close kin association among age-0 individuals suggests that sampling strategy (number of individuals and location from...

  17. Randomization of grab-sampling strategies for estimating the annual exposure of U miners to Rn daughters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borak, T B

    1986-04-01

    Periodic grab sampling in combination with time-of-occupancy surveys has been the accepted procedure for estimating the annual exposure of underground U miners to Rn daughters. Temporal variations in the concentration of potential alpha energy in the mine generate uncertainties in this process. A system to randomize the selection of locations for measurement is described which can reduce uncertainties and eliminate systematic biases in the data. In general, a sample frequency of 50 measurements per year is sufficient to satisfy the criteria that the annual exposure be determined in working level months to within +/- 50% of the true value with a 95% level of confidence. Suggestions for implementing this randomization scheme are presented.

  18. Statistical sampling strategies for survey of soil contamination

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    This chapter reviews methods for selecting sampling locations in contaminated soils for three situations. In the first situation a global estimate of the soil contamination in an area is required. The result of the surey is a number or a series of numbers per contaminant, e.g. the estimated mean

  19. A survey of archaeological samples dated in 1987

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejdahl, V.

    1988-10-01

    A survey is given of archaeological samples dated in 1987 at the Nordic Laboratory for Thermoluminescence Dating. A total of 74 samples were dated. The results were corrected for short-term fading of feldspars as measured for samples stored at room temperature for four weeks or at 100 deg. C for two weeks. The beta dose from potassium and rubidium in feldspar, and the alpha dose from uranium and thorium in quartz and feldspar were included, assuming alpha efficiency factors of 0.1 for quartz and 0.2 for feldspar. (author) 20 tabs., 29 refs

  20. A survey of archaeological samples dated in 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejdahl, V.

    1986-11-01

    A survey is given of archaeological samples received for dating in 1985 at the Nordic Laboratory for Thermoluminescence Dating. A total of 66 samples were dated, 42 of which were burnt stones. All results were corrected for short- term fading as measured for samples stored at room temperature for four weeks. The beta dose from potassium and rubidium in feldspar and the alpha dose from uranium and thorium in quarts and feldspar were included assuming alpha efficiency factors of 0.1 for quartz and 0.2 for feldspar. (author)

  1. A survey of archaeological samples dated in 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejdahl, V.

    1987-10-01

    A survey is given of archaeological samples dated in 1986 at the Nordic Laboratory for Thermoluminescence Dating. A total of 56 samples were dated. The results were corrected for shortterm fading measured for samples stored for four weeks at room temperature or at 100 deg. C. The beta dose from potassium and rubidium in feldspar and the alpha dose from uranium and thorium in quartz and feldspar grain were included assuming alpha efficiency factors of 0.1 and 0.2 for quartz and feldspar, respectively. 21 refs. (author)

  2. Estimation of AUC or Partial AUC under Test-Result-Dependent Sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaofei; Ma, Junling; George, Stephen; Zhou, Haibo

    2012-01-01

    The area under the ROC curve (AUC) and partial area under the ROC curve (pAUC) are summary measures used to assess the accuracy of a biomarker in discriminating true disease status. The standard sampling approach used in biomarker validation studies is often inefficient and costly, especially when ascertaining the true disease status is costly and invasive. To improve efficiency and reduce the cost of biomarker validation studies, we consider a test-result-dependent sampling (TDS) scheme, in which subject selection for determining the disease state is dependent on the result of a biomarker assay. We first estimate the test-result distribution using data arising from the TDS design. With the estimated empirical test-result distribution, we propose consistent nonparametric estimators for AUC and pAUC and establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators. Simulation studies show that the proposed estimators have good finite sample properties and that the TDS design yields more efficient AUC and pAUC estimates than a simple random sampling (SRS) design. A data example based on an ongoing cancer clinical trial is provided to illustrate the TDS design and the proposed estimators. This work can find broad applications in design and analysis of biomarker validation studies.

  3. Estimating HIES Data through Ratio and Regression Methods for Different Sampling Designs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faqir Muhammad

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, comparison has been made for different sampling designs, using the HIES data of North West Frontier Province (NWFP for 2001-02 and 1998-99 collected from the Federal Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Division, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad. The performance of the estimators has also been considered using bootstrap and Jacknife. A two-stage stratified random sample design is adopted by HIES. In the first stage, enumeration blocks and villages are treated as the first stage Primary Sampling Units (PSU. The sample PSU’s are selected with probability proportional to size. Secondary Sampling Units (SSU i.e., households are selected by systematic sampling with a random start. They have used a single study variable. We have compared the HIES technique with some other designs, which are: Stratified Simple Random Sampling. Stratified Systematic Sampling. Stratified Ranked Set Sampling. Stratified Two Phase Sampling. Ratio and Regression methods were applied with two study variables, which are: Income (y and Household sizes (x. Jacknife and Bootstrap are used for variance replication. Simple Random Sampling with sample size (462 to 561 gave moderate variances both by Jacknife and Bootstrap. By applying Systematic Sampling, we received moderate variance with sample size (467. In Jacknife with Systematic Sampling, we obtained variance of regression estimator greater than that of ratio estimator for a sample size (467 to 631. At a sample size (952 variance of ratio estimator gets greater than that of regression estimator. The most efficient design comes out to be Ranked set sampling compared with other designs. The Ranked set sampling with jackknife and bootstrap, gives minimum variance even with the smallest sample size (467. Two Phase sampling gave poor performance. Multi-stage sampling applied by HIES gave large variances especially if used with a single study variable.

  4. Can the use of psychoactive drugs in the general adult population be estimated based on data from a roadside survey of drugs and driving?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallvard Gjerde

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available A roadside survey of drugs and driving was performed in south-eastern Norway in 2005-6. Samples of saliva from a total of 10,503 drivers above 20 years of age were analysed, and the results were weighted for under- and over-sampling compared to the population distribution in the study area. Weighted results were compared with data on dispensed prescriptions of zopiclone, codeine and diazepam at Norwegian pharmacies in the same area and with self-reported use of cannabis. When using roadside data to estimate drug use, the use of medicinal drugs was under-estimated by 17-59% compared to amounts dispensed. One of the main reasons for the under-estimation may be that a large proportion of the users of psychoactive medicinal drugs are not frequent drivers. For cannabis, self-reported data corresponded approximately to the estimated prevalence range. The results indicate that roadside surveys cannot be used for accurate estima tions of drug use in the population, but may provide minimum figures.

  5. Networked Estimation for Event-Based Sampling Systems with Packet Dropouts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Soo Suh

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a networked estimation problem in which sensor data are transmitted over the network. In the event-based sampling scheme known as level-crossing or send-on-delta (SOD, sensor data are transmitted to the estimator node if the difference between the current sensor value and the last transmitted one is greater than a given threshold. Event-based sampling has been shown to be more efficient than the time-triggered one in some situations, especially in network bandwidth improvement. However, it cannot detect packet dropout situations because data transmission and reception do not use a periodical time-stamp mechanism as found in time-triggered sampling systems. Motivated by this issue, we propose a modified event-based sampling scheme called modified SOD in which sensor data are sent when either the change of sensor output exceeds a given threshold or the time elapses more than a given interval. Through simulation results, we show that the proposed modified SOD sampling significantly improves estimation performance when packet dropouts happen.

  6. A two-stage cluster sampling method using gridded population data, a GIS, and Google EarthTM imagery in a population-based mortality survey in Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galway LP

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mortality estimates can measure and monitor the impacts of conflict on a population, guide humanitarian efforts, and help to better understand the public health impacts of conflict. Vital statistics registration and surveillance systems are rarely functional in conflict settings, posing a challenge of estimating mortality using retrospective population-based surveys. Results We present a two-stage cluster sampling method for application in population-based mortality surveys. The sampling method utilizes gridded population data and a geographic information system (GIS to select clusters in the first sampling stage and Google Earth TM imagery and sampling grids to select households in the second sampling stage. The sampling method is implemented in a household mortality study in Iraq in 2011. Factors affecting feasibility and methodological quality are described. Conclusion Sampling is a challenge in retrospective population-based mortality studies and alternatives that improve on the conventional approaches are needed. The sampling strategy presented here was designed to generate a representative sample of the Iraqi population while reducing the potential for bias and considering the context specific challenges of the study setting. This sampling strategy, or variations on it, are adaptable and should be considered and tested in other conflict settings.

  7. A method to combine non-probability sample data with probability sample data in estimating spatial means of environmental variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.

    2003-01-01

    In estimating spatial means of environmental variables of a region from data collected by convenience or purposive sampling, validity of the results can be ensured by collecting additional data through probability sampling. The precision of the pi estimator that uses the probability sample can be

  8. A survey of archaeological samples dated in 1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mejdahl, V.

    1989-08-01

    A survey is given of archaeological samples dated in 1988 at the Nordic Laboratory for Thermoluminescence Dating. A total of 67 samples were dated. The results were corrected for short-term fading of feldspars as measured for samples stored at room temperature for four weeks or at 100 deg. C for two weeks. The beta dose from potassium and rubidium in feldspar, and the alpha dose from uranium and thorium in quartz and feldspar were included assuming alpha efficiency factors of 0.1 for quartz and 0.2 for feldspar. (author) 22 tabs., 1 ill., 14 refs

  9. Reliability of Nationwide Prevalence Estimates of Dementia: A Critical Appraisal Based on Brazilian Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Chaimowicz

    Full Text Available The nationwide dementia prevalence is usually calculated by applying the results of local surveys to countries' populations. To evaluate the reliability of such estimations in developing countries, we chose Brazil as an example. We carried out a systematic review of dementia surveys, ascertained their risk of bias, and present the best estimate of occurrence of dementia in Brazil.We carried out an electronic search of PubMed, Latin-American databases, and a Brazilian thesis database for surveys focusing on dementia prevalence in Brazil. The systematic review was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42014008815. Among the 35 studies found, 15 analyzed population-based random samples. However, most of them utilized inadequate criteria for diagnostics. Six studies without these limitations were further analyzed to assess the risk of selection, attrition, outcome and population bias as well as several statistical issues. All the studies presented moderate or high risk of bias in at least two domains due to the following features: high non-response, inaccurate cut-offs, and doubtful accuracy of the examiners. Two studies had limited external validity due to high rates of illiteracy or low income. The three studies with adequate generalizability and the lowest risk of bias presented a prevalence of dementia between 7.1% and 8.3% among subjects aged 65 years and older. However, after adjustment for accuracy of screening, the best available evidence points towards a figure between 15.2% and 16.3%.The risk of bias may strongly limit the generalizability of dementia prevalence estimates in developing countries. Extrapolations that have already been made for Brazil and Latin America were based on a prevalence that should have been adjusted for screening accuracy or not used at all due to severe bias. Similar evaluations regarding other developing countries are needed in order to verify the scope of these limitations.

  10. National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses II. Status of Nurses: November 1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, Barbara S.; And Others

    This report provides data describing the nursing population as determined by the second national sample survey of registered nurses. A brief introduction is followed by a chapter that presents an overview of the survey methodology, including details on the sampling design, the response rate, and the statistical reliability. Chapter 3 provides a…

  11. Novel platform for ocean survey and autonomous sampling using multi-agent system

    OpenAIRE

    Taher, Tawfiq; Weymouth, G.D.; Varghese, Tony

    2013-01-01

    In-situ surveying and sampling of ocean environments provides critical data for laboratory work and oceanographic research. However, sampling a time-varying ocean field is often time and resource limited-meaning that samples often miss the features of interest. This paper presents a modular autonomous multi-agent robotic system which has been developed to accommodate a variety of research activities. This paper demonstrates the complementary capabilities of the agents by simultaneously survey...

  12. Regional soil erosion assessment based on a sample survey and geostatistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion is one of the most significant environmental problems in China. From 2010 to 2012, the fourth national census for soil erosion sampled 32 364 PSUs (Primary Sampling Units, small watersheds with the areas of 0.2–3 km2. Land use and soil erosion controlling factors including rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, slope length, slope steepness, biological practice, engineering practice, and tillage practice for the PSUs were surveyed, and the soil loss rate for each land use in the PSUs was estimated using an empirical model, the Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE. Though the information collected from the sample units can be aggregated to estimate soil erosion conditions on a large scale; the problem of estimating soil erosion condition on a regional scale has not been addressed well. The aim of this study is to introduce a new model-based regional soil erosion assessment method combining a sample survey and geostatistics. We compared seven spatial interpolation models based on the bivariate penalized spline over triangulation (BPST method to generate a regional soil erosion assessment from the PSUs. Shaanxi Province (3116 PSUs in China was selected for the comparison and assessment as it is one of the areas with the most serious erosion problem. Ten-fold cross-validation based on the PSU data showed the model assisted by the land use, rainfall erosivity factor (R, soil erodibility factor (K, slope steepness factor (S, and slope length factor (L derived from a 1 : 10 000 topography map is the best one, with the model efficiency coefficient (ME being 0.75 and the MSE being 55.8 % of that for the model assisted by the land use alone. Among four erosion factors as the covariates, the S factor contributed the most information, followed by K and L factors, and R factor made almost no contribution to the spatial estimation of soil loss. The LS factor derived from 30 or 90 m Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

  13. Low-sampling-rate ultra-wideband channel estimation using a bounded-data-uncertainty approach

    KAUST Repository

    Ballal, Tarig

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a low-sampling-rate scheme for ultra-wideband channel estimation. In the proposed scheme, P pulses are transmitted to produce P observations. These observations are exploited to produce channel impulse response estimates at a desired sampling rate, while the ADC operates at a rate that is P times less. To avoid loss of fidelity, the interpulse interval, given in units of sampling periods of the desired rate, is restricted to be co-prime with P. This condition is affected when clock drift is present and the transmitted pulse locations change. To handle this situation and to achieve good performance without using prior information, we derive an improved estimator based on the bounded data uncertainty (BDU) model. This estimator is shown to be related to the Bayesian linear minimum mean squared error (LMMSE) estimator. The performance of the proposed sub-sampling scheme was tested in conjunction with the new estimator. It is shown that high reduction in sampling rate can be achieved. The proposed estimator outperforms the least squares estimator in most cases; while in the high SNR regime, it also outperforms the LMMSE estimator. © 2014 IEEE.

  14. Precision of systematic and random sampling in clustered populations: habitat patches and aggregating organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarvey, Richard; Burch, Paul; Matthews, Janet M

    2016-01-01

    Natural populations of plants and animals spatially cluster because (1) suitable habitat is patchy, and (2) within suitable habitat, individuals aggregate further into clusters of higher density. We compare the precision of random and systematic field sampling survey designs under these two processes of species clustering. Second, we evaluate the performance of 13 estimators for the variance of the sample mean from a systematic survey. Replicated simulated surveys, as counts from 100 transects, allocated either randomly or systematically within the study region, were used to estimate population density in six spatial point populations including habitat patches and Matérn circular clustered aggregations of organisms, together and in combination. The standard one-start aligned systematic survey design, a uniform 10 x 10 grid of transects, was much more precise. Variances of the 10 000 replicated systematic survey mean densities were one-third to one-fifth of those from randomly allocated transects, implying transect sample sizes giving equivalent precision by random survey would need to be three to five times larger. Organisms being restricted to patches of habitat was alone sufficient to yield this precision advantage for the systematic design. But this improved precision for systematic sampling in clustered populations is underestimated by standard variance estimators used to compute confidence intervals. True variance for the survey sample mean was computed from the variance of 10 000 simulated survey mean estimates. Testing 10 published and three newly proposed variance estimators, the two variance estimators (v) that corrected for inter-transect correlation (ν₈ and ν(W)) were the most accurate and also the most precise in clustered populations. These greatly outperformed the two "post-stratification" variance estimators (ν₂ and ν₃) that are now more commonly applied in systematic surveys. Similar variance estimator performance rankings were found with

  15. The use of Thompson sampling to increase estimation precision

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaptein, M.C.

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we consider a sequential sampling scheme for efficient estimation of the difference between the means of two independent treatments when the population variances are unequal across groups. The sampling scheme proposed is based on a solution to bandit problems called Thompson

  16. Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Galaxy Sample for BAO Measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crocce, M.; et al.

    2017-12-17

    We define and characterise a sample of 1.3 million galaxies extracted from the first year of Dark Energy Survey data, optimised to measure Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the presence of significant redshift uncertainties. The sample is dominated by luminous red galaxies located at redshifts $z \\gtrsim 0.6$. We define the exact selection using color and magnitude cuts that balance the need of high number densities and small photometric redshift uncertainties, using the corresponding forecasted BAO distance error as a figure-of-merit in the process. The typical photo-$z$ uncertainty varies from $2.3\\%$ to $3.6\\%$ (in units of 1+$z$) from $z=0.6$ to $1$, with number densities from $200$ to $130$ galaxies per deg$^2$ in tomographic bins of width $\\Delta z = 0.1$. Next we summarise the validation of the photometric redshift estimation. We characterise and mitigate observational systematics including stellar contamination, and show that the clustering on large scales is robust in front of those contaminants. We show that the clustering signal in the auto-correlations and cross-correlations is generally consistent with theoretical models, which serves as an additional test of the redshift distributions.

  17. Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

    2015-01-01

    Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

  18. Estimating Sample Size for Usability Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Cazañas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available One strategy used to assure that an interface meets user requirements is to conduct usability testing. When conducting such testing one of the unknowns is sample size. Since extensive testing is costly, minimizing the number of participants can contribute greatly to successful resource management of a project. Even though a significant number of models have been proposed to estimate sample size in usability testing, there is still not consensus on the optimal size. Several studies claim that 3 to 5 users suffice to uncover 80% of problems in a software interface. However, many other studies challenge this assertion. This study analyzed data collected from the user testing of a web application to verify the rule of thumb, commonly known as the “magic number 5”. The outcomes of the analysis showed that the 5-user rule significantly underestimates the required sample size to achieve reasonable levels of problem detection.

  19. Estimating international interindustry linkages : Non-survey simulations of the Asian-Pacific economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhaven, J.; Stelder, T.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper evaluates a recently published semi-survey international input-output table for nine East-Asian countries and the USA with four non-survey estimation alternatives. A new generalized RAS procedure is used with stepwise increasing information from both import and export statistics as

  20. Analysing designed experiments in distance sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen T. Buckland; Robin E. Russell; Brett G. Dickson; Victoria A. Saab; Donal N. Gorman; William M. Block

    2009-01-01

    Distance sampling is a survey technique for estimating the abundance or density of wild animal populations. Detection probabilities of animals inherently differ by species, age class, habitats, or sex. By incorporating the change in an observer's ability to detect a particular class of animals as a function of distance, distance sampling leads to density estimates...

  1. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Sawaya

    Full Text Available We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos and black bear (U. americanus populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008 and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008 in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17 and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20 using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  2. Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawaya, Michael A; Stetz, Jeffrey B; Clevenger, Anthony P; Gibeau, Michael L; Kalinowski, Steven T

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

  3. Study on method of dose estimation for the Dual-moderated neutron survey meter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Bo; Li, Taosheng; Xu, Yuhai; Gong, Cunkui; Yan, Qiang; Li, Lei

    2013-01-01

    In order to study neutron dose measurement in high energy radiation field, a Dual-moderated survey meter in the range from 1 keV to 300 MeV mean energies spectra has been developed. Measurement results of some survey meters depend on the neutron spectra characteristics in different neutron radiation fields, so the characteristics of the responses to various neutron spectra should be studied in order to get more reasonable dose. In this paper the responses of the survey meter were calculated under different neutron spectra data from IAEA of Technical Reports Series No. 318 and other references. Finally one dose estimation method was determined. The range of the reading per H*(10) for the method estimated is about 0.7–1.6 for the neutron mean energy range from 50 keV to 300 MeV. -- Highlights: • We studied a novel high energy neutron survey meter. • Response characteristics of the survey meter were calculated by using a series of neutron spectra. • One significant advantage of the survey meter is that it can provide mean energy of radiation field. • Dose estimate deviation can be corrected. • The range of corrected reading per H*(10) is about 0.7–1.6 for the neutron fluence mean energy range from 0.05 MeV to 300 MeV

  4. Determining Sample Size for Accurate Estimation of the Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Algina, James; Olejnik, Stephen

    2000-01-01

    Discusses determining sample size for estimation of the squared multiple correlation coefficient and presents regression equations that permit determination of the sample size for estimating this parameter for up to 20 predictor variables. (SLD)

  5. Using survey data on inflation expectations in the estimation of learning and rational expectations models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ormeño, A.

    2012-01-01

    Do survey data on inflation expectations contain useful information for estimating macroeconomic models? I address this question by using survey data in the New Keynesian model by Smets and Wouters (2007) to estimate and compare its performance when solved under the assumptions of Rational

  6. Lot quality assurance sampling techniques in health surveys in developing countries: advantages and current constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanata, C F; Black, R E

    1991-01-01

    Traditional survey methods, which are generally costly and time-consuming, usually provide information at the regional or national level only. The utilization of lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) methodology, developed in industry for quality control, makes it possible to use small sample sizes when conducting surveys in small geographical or population-based areas (lots). This article describes the practical use of LQAS for conducting health surveys to monitor health programmes in developing countries. Following a brief description of the method, the article explains how to build a sample frame and conduct the sampling to apply LQAS under field conditions. A detailed description of the procedure for selecting a sampling unit to monitor the health programme and a sample size is given. The sampling schemes utilizing LQAS applicable to health surveys, such as simple- and double-sampling schemes, are discussed. The interpretation of the survey results and the planning of subsequent rounds of LQAS surveys are also discussed. When describing the applicability of LQAS in health surveys in developing countries, the article considers current limitations for its use by health planners in charge of health programmes, and suggests ways to overcome these limitations through future research. It is hoped that with increasing attention being given to industrial sampling plans in general, and LQAS in particular, their utilization to monitor health programmes will provide health planners in developing countries with powerful techniques to help them achieve their health programme targets.

  7. Density meter algorithm and system for estimating sampling/mixing uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, E.P.

    1986-01-01

    The Laboratories Department at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) has installed a six-place density meter with an automatic sampling device. This paper describes the statistical software developed to analyze the density of uranyl nitrate solutions using this automated system. The purpose of this software is twofold: to estimate the sampling/mixing and measurement uncertainties in the process and to provide a measurement control program for the density meter. Non-uniformities in density are analyzed both analytically and graphically. The mean density and its limit of error are estimated. Quality control standards are analyzed concurrently with process samples and used to control the density meter measurement error. The analyses are corrected for concentration due to evaporation of samples waiting to be analyzed. The results of this program have been successful in identifying sampling/mixing problems and controlling the quality of analyses

  8. Density meter algorithm and system for estimating sampling/mixing uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, E.P.

    1986-01-01

    The Laboratories Department at the Savannah River Plant (SRP) has installed a six-place density meter with an automatic sampling device. This paper describes the statisical software developed to analyze the density of uranyl nitrate solutions using this automated system. The purpose of this software is twofold: to estimate the sampling/mixing and measurement uncertainties in the process and to provide a measurement control program for the density meter. Non-uniformities in density are analyzed both analytically and graphically. The mean density and its limit of error are estimated. Quality control standards are analyzed concurrently with process samples and used to control the density meter measurement error. The analyses are corrected for concentration due to evaporation of samples waiting to be analyzed. The results of this program have been successful in identifying sampling/mixing problems and controlling the quality of analyses

  9. Localised estimates and spatial mapping of poverty incidence in the state of Bihar in India-An application of small area estimation techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Hukum; Aditya, Kaustav; Sud, U C

    2018-01-01

    Poverty affects many people, but the ramifications and impacts affect all aspects of society. Information about the incidence of poverty is therefore an important parameter of the population for policy analysis and decision making. In order to provide specific, targeted solutions when addressing poverty disadvantage small area statistics are needed. Surveys are typically designed and planned to produce reliable estimates of population characteristics of interest mainly at higher geographic area such as national and state level. Sample sizes are usually not large enough to provide reliable estimates for disaggregated analysis. In many instances estimates are required for areas of the population for which the survey providing the data was unplanned. Then, for areas with small sample sizes, direct survey estimation of population characteristics based only on the data available from the particular area tends to be unreliable. This paper describes an application of small area estimation (SAE) approach to improve the precision of estimates of poverty incidence at district level in the State of Bihar in India by linking data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey 2011-12 of NSSO and the Population Census 2011. The results show that the district level estimates generated by SAE method are more precise and representative. In contrast, the direct survey estimates based on survey data alone are less stable.

  10. Localised estimates and spatial mapping of poverty incidence in the state of Bihar in India—An application of small area estimation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aditya, Kaustav; Sud, U. C.

    2018-01-01

    Poverty affects many people, but the ramifications and impacts affect all aspects of society. Information about the incidence of poverty is therefore an important parameter of the population for policy analysis and decision making. In order to provide specific, targeted solutions when addressing poverty disadvantage small area statistics are needed. Surveys are typically designed and planned to produce reliable estimates of population characteristics of interest mainly at higher geographic area such as national and state level. Sample sizes are usually not large enough to provide reliable estimates for disaggregated analysis. In many instances estimates are required for areas of the population for which the survey providing the data was unplanned. Then, for areas with small sample sizes, direct survey estimation of population characteristics based only on the data available from the particular area tends to be unreliable. This paper describes an application of small area estimation (SAE) approach to improve the precision of estimates of poverty incidence at district level in the State of Bihar in India by linking data from the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey 2011–12 of NSSO and the Population Census 2011. The results show that the district level estimates generated by SAE method are more precise and representative. In contrast, the direct survey estimates based on survey data alone are less stable. PMID:29879202

  11. Don't spin the pen: two alternative methods for second-stage sampling in urban cluster surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rose Angela MC

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In two-stage cluster surveys, the traditional method used in second-stage sampling (in which the first household in a cluster is selected is time-consuming and may result in biased estimates of the indicator of interest. Firstly, a random direction from the center of the cluster is selected, usually by spinning a pen. The houses along that direction are then counted out to the boundary of the cluster, and one is then selected at random to be the first household surveyed. This process favors households towards the center of the cluster, but it could easily be improved. During a recent meningitis vaccination coverage survey in Maradi, Niger, we compared this method of first household selection to two alternatives in urban zones: 1 using a superimposed grid on the map of the cluster area and randomly selecting an intersection; and 2 drawing the perimeter of the cluster area using a Global Positioning System (GPS and randomly selecting one point within the perimeter. Although we only compared a limited number of clusters using each method, we found the sampling grid method to be the fastest and easiest for field survey teams, although it does require a map of the area. Selecting a random GPS point was also found to be a good method, once adequate training can be provided. Spinning the pen and counting households to the boundary was the most complicated and time-consuming. The two methods tested here represent simpler, quicker and potentially more robust alternatives to spinning the pen for cluster surveys in urban areas. However, in rural areas, these alternatives would favor initial household selection from lower density (or even potentially empty areas. Bearing in mind these limitations, as well as available resources and feasibility, investigators should choose the most appropriate method for their particular survey context.

  12. Adjusting forest density estimates for surveyor bias in historical tree surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brice B. Hanberry; Jian Yang; John M. Kabrick; Hong S. He

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. General Land Office surveys, conducted between the late 1700s to early 1900s, provide records of trees prior to widespread European and American colonial settlement. However, potential and documented surveyor bias raises questions about the reliability of historical tree density estimates and other metrics based on density estimated from these records. In this...

  13. Finite Sample Comparison of Parametric, Semiparametric, and Wavelet Estimators of Fractional Integration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Morten Ø.; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods. The es...... the time domain parametric methods, and (4) without sufficient trimming of scales the wavelet-based estimators are heavily biased.......In this paper we compare through Monte Carlo simulations the finite sample properties of estimators of the fractional differencing parameter, d. This involves frequency domain, time domain, and wavelet based approaches, and we consider both parametric and semiparametric estimation methods....... The estimators are briefly introduced and compared, and the criteria adopted for measuring finite sample performance are bias and root mean squared error. Most importantly, the simulations reveal that (1) the frequency domain maximum likelihood procedure is superior to the time domain parametric methods, (2) all...

  14. Self-reported physical activity among blacks: estimates from national surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitt-Glover, Melicia C; Taylor, Wendell C; Heath, Gregory W; Macera, Caroline A

    2007-11-01

    National surveillance data provide population-level estimates of physical activity participation, but generally do not include detailed subgroup analyses, which could provide a better understanding of physical activity among subgroups. This paper presents a descriptive analysis of self-reported regular physical activity among black adults using data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n=19,189), the 2004 National Health Interview Survey (n=4263), and the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n=3407). Analyses were conducted between January and March 2006. Datasets were analyzed separately to estimate the proportion of black adults meeting national physical activity recommendations overall and stratified by gender and other demographic subgroups. The proportion of black adults reporting regular PA ranged from 24% to 36%. Regular physical activity was highest among men; younger age groups; highest education and income groups; those who were employed and married; overweight, but not obese, men; and normal-weight women. This pattern was consistent across surveys. The observed physical activity patterns were consistent with national trends. The data suggest that older black adults and those with low education and income levels are at greatest risk for inactive lifestyles and may require additional attention in efforts to increase physical activity in black adults. The variability across datasets reinforces the need for objective measures in national surveys.

  15. Contributions to sampling statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Conti, Pier; Ranalli, Maria

    2014-01-01

    This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the ITACOSM 2013 Conference, held in Milan in June 2013. ITACOSM is the bi-annual meeting of the Survey Sampling Group S2G of the Italian Statistical Society, intended as an international  forum of scientific discussion on the developments of theory and application of survey sampling methodologies and applications in human and natural sciences. The book gathers research papers carefully selected from both invited and contributed sessions of the conference. The whole book appears to be a relevant contribution to various key aspects of sampling methodology and techniques; it deals with some hot topics in sampling theory, such as calibration, quantile-regression and multiple frame surveys, and with innovative methodologies in important topics of both sampling theory and applications. Contributions cut across current sampling methodologies such as interval estimation for complex samples, randomized responses, bootstrap, weighting, modeling, imputati...

  16. Mobile Phone Surveys for Collecting Population-Level Estimates in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Dustin G; Pereira, Amanda; Farrenkopf, Brooke A; Labrique, Alain B; Pariyo, George W; Hyder, Adnan A

    2017-05-05

    National and subnational level surveys are important for monitoring disease burden, prioritizing resource allocation, and evaluating public health policies. As mobile phone access and ownership become more common globally, mobile phone surveys (MPSs) offer an opportunity to supplement traditional public health household surveys. The objective of this study was to systematically review the current landscape of MPSs to collect population-level estimates in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Primary and gray literature from 7 online databases were systematically searched for studies that deployed MPSs to collect population-level estimates. Titles and abstracts were screened on primary inclusion and exclusion criteria by two research assistants. Articles that met primary screening requirements were read in full and screened for secondary eligibility criteria. Articles included in review were grouped into the following three categories by their survey modality: (1) interactive voice response (IVR), (2) short message service (SMS), and (3) human operator or computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI). Data were abstracted by two research assistants. The conduct and reporting of the review conformed to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. A total of 6625 articles were identified through the literature review. Overall, 11 articles were identified that contained 19 MPS (CATI, IVR, or SMS) surveys to collect population-level estimates across a range of topics. MPSs were used in Latin America (n=8), the Middle East (n=1), South Asia (n=2), and sub-Saharan Africa (n=8). Nine articles presented results for 10 CATI surveys (10/19, 53%). Two articles discussed the findings of 6 IVR surveys (6/19, 32%). Three SMS surveys were identified from 2 articles (3/19, 16%). Approximately 63% (12/19) of MPS were delivered to mobile phone numbers collected from previously administered household surveys. The majority of MPS (11

  17. A Systematic Review of Published Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys Collecting Behavioral and Biologic Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Lisa G; Hakim, Avi J; Dittrich, Samantha; Burnett, Janet; Kim, Evelyn; White, Richard G

    2016-08-01

    Reporting key details of respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey implementation and analysis is essential for assessing the quality of RDS surveys. RDS is both a recruitment and analytic method and, as such, it is important to adequately describe both aspects in publications. We extracted data from peer-reviewed literature published through September, 2013 that reported collected biological specimens using RDS. We identified 151 eligible peer-reviewed articles describing 222 surveys conducted in seven regions throughout the world. Most published surveys reported basic implementation information such as survey city, country, year, population sampled, interview method, and final sample size. However, many surveys did not report essential methodological and analytical information for assessing RDS survey quality, including number of recruitment sites, seeds at start and end, maximum number of waves, and whether data were adjusted for network size. Understanding the quality of data collection and analysis in RDS is useful for effectively planning public health service delivery and funding priorities.

  18. Assessment of sampling strategies for estimation of site mean concentrations of stormwater pollutants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, David T; Zhang, Kefeng; Westerlund, Camilla; Viklander, Maria; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc; Fletcher, Tim D; Deletic, Ana

    2018-02-01

    The estimation of stormwater pollutant concentrations is a primary requirement of integrated urban water management. In order to determine effective sampling strategies for estimating pollutant concentrations, data from extensive field measurements at seven different catchments was used. At all sites, 1-min resolution continuous flow measurements, as well as flow-weighted samples, were taken and analysed for total suspend solids (TSS), total nitrogen (TN) and Escherichia coli (E. coli). For each of these parameters, the data was used to calculate the Event Mean Concentrations (EMCs) for each event. The measured Site Mean Concentrations (SMCs) were taken as the volume-weighted average of these EMCs for each parameter, at each site. 17 different sampling strategies, including random and fixed strategies were tested to estimate SMCs, which were compared with the measured SMCs. The ratios of estimated/measured SMCs were further analysed to determine the most effective sampling strategies. Results indicate that the random sampling strategies were the most promising method in reproducing SMCs for TSS and TN, while some fixed sampling strategies were better for estimating the SMC of E. coli. The differences in taking one, two or three random samples were small (up to 20% for TSS, and 10% for TN and E. coli), indicating that there is little benefit in investing in collection of more than one sample per event if attempting to estimate the SMC through monitoring of multiple events. It was estimated that an average of 27 events across the studied catchments are needed for characterising SMCs of TSS with a 90% confidence interval (CI) width of 1.0, followed by E.coli (average 12 events) and TN (average 11 events). The coefficient of variation of pollutant concentrations was linearly and significantly correlated to the 90% confidence interval ratio of the estimated/measured SMCs (R 2  = 0.49; P sampling frequency needed to accurately estimate SMCs of pollutants. Crown

  19. Improving the collection of knowledge, attitude and practice data with community surveys: a comparison of two second-stage sampling methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Rosemary H; Valadez, Joseph J

    2014-12-01

    Second-stage sampling techniques, including spatial segmentation, are widely used in community health surveys when reliable household sampling frames are not available. In India, an unresearched technique for household selection is used in eight states, which samples the house with the last marriage or birth as the starting point. Users question whether this last-birth or last-marriage (LBLM) approach introduces bias affecting survey results. We conducted two simultaneous population-based surveys. One used segmentation sampling; the other used LBLM. LBLM sampling required modification before assessment was possible and a more systematic approach was tested using last birth only. We compared coverage proportions produced by the two independent samples for six malaria indicators and demographic variables (education, wealth and caste). We then measured the level of agreement between the caste of the selected participant and the caste of the health worker making the selection. No significant difference between methods was found for the point estimates of six malaria indicators, education, caste or wealth of the survey participants (range of P: 0.06 to >0.99). A poor level of agreement occurred between the caste of the health worker used in household selection and the caste of the final participant, (Κ = 0.185), revealing little association between the two, and thereby indicating that caste was not a source of bias. Although LBLM was not testable, a systematic last-birth approach was tested. If documented concerns of last-birth sampling are addressed, this new method could offer an acceptable alternative to segmentation in India. However, inter-state caste variation could affect this result. Therefore, additional assessment of last birth is required before wider implementation is recommended. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2013; all rights reserved.

  20. A Solution to Modeling Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis with Data Obtained from Complex Survey Sampling to Avoid Conflated Parameter Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiun-Yu Wu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The issue of equality in the between-and within-level structures in Multilevel Confirmatory Factor Analysis (MCFA models has been influential for obtaining unbiased parameter estimates and statistical inferences. A commonly seen condition is the inequality of factor loadings under equal level-varying structures. With mathematical investigation and Monte Carlo simulation, this study compared the robustness of five statistical models including two model-based (a true and a mis-specified models, one design-based, and two maximum models (two models where the full rank of variance-covariance matrix is estimated in between level and within level, respectively in analyzing complex survey measurement data with level-varying factor loadings. The empirical data of 120 3rd graders' (from 40 classrooms perceived Harter competence scale were modeled using MCFA and the parameter estimates were used as true parameters to perform the Monte Carlo simulation study. Results showed maximum models was robust to unequal factor loadings while the design-based and the miss-specified model-based approaches produced conflated results and spurious statistical inferences. We recommend the use of maximum models if researchers have limited information about the pattern of factor loadings and measurement structures. Measurement models are key components of Structural Equation Modeling (SEM; therefore, the findings can be generalized to multilevel SEM and CFA models. Mplus codes are provided for maximum models and other analytical models.

  1. Gray bootstrap method for estimating frequency-varying random vibration signals with small samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yanqing

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available During environment testing, the estimation of random vibration signals (RVS is an important technique for the airborne platform safety and reliability. However, the available methods including extreme value envelope method (EVEM, statistical tolerances method (STM and improved statistical tolerance method (ISTM require large samples and typical probability distribution. Moreover, the frequency-varying characteristic of RVS is usually not taken into account. Gray bootstrap method (GBM is proposed to solve the problem of estimating frequency-varying RVS with small samples. Firstly, the estimated indexes are obtained including the estimated interval, the estimated uncertainty, the estimated value, the estimated error and estimated reliability. In addition, GBM is applied to estimating the single flight testing of certain aircraft. At last, in order to evaluate the estimated performance, GBM is compared with bootstrap method (BM and gray method (GM in testing analysis. The result shows that GBM has superiority for estimating dynamic signals with small samples and estimated reliability is proved to be 100% at the given confidence level.

  2. Influence of Sampling Effort on the Estimated Richness of Road-Killed Vertebrate Wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bager, Alex; da Rosa, Clarissa A.

    2011-05-01

    Road-killed mammals, birds, and reptiles were collected weekly from highways in southern Brazil in 2002 and 2005. The objective was to assess variation in estimates of road-kill impacts on species richness produced by different sampling efforts, and to provide information to aid in the experimental design of future sampling. Richness observed in weekly samples was compared with sampling for different periods. In each period, the list of road-killed species was evaluated based on estimates the community structure derived from weekly samplings, and by the presence of the ten species most subject to road mortality, and also of threatened species. Weekly samples were sufficient only for reptiles and mammals, considered separately. Richness estimated from the biweekly samples was equal to that found in the weekly samples, and gave satisfactory results for sampling the most abundant and threatened species. The ten most affected species showed constant road-mortality rates, independent of sampling interval, and also maintained their dominance structure. Birds required greater sampling effort. When the composition of road-killed species varies seasonally, it is necessary to take biweekly samples for a minimum of one year. Weekly or more-frequent sampling for periods longer than two years is necessary to provide a reliable estimate of total species richness.

  3. Do Survey Data Estimate Earnings Inequality Correctly? Measurement Errors among Black and White Male Workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, ChangHwan; Tamborini, Christopher R.

    2012-01-01

    Few studies have considered how earnings inequality estimates may be affected by measurement error in self-reported earnings in surveys. Utilizing restricted-use data that links workers in the Survey of Income and Program Participation with their W-2 earnings records, we examine the effect of measurement error on estimates of racial earnings…

  4. Estimating rare events in biochemical systems using conditional sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundar, V. S.

    2017-01-01

    The paper focuses on development of variance reduction strategies to estimate rare events in biochemical systems. Obtaining this probability using brute force Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with the stochastic simulation algorithm (Gillespie's method) is computationally prohibitive. To circumvent this, important sampling tools such as the weighted stochastic simulation algorithm and the doubly weighted stochastic simulation algorithm have been proposed. However, these strategies require an additional step of determining the important region to sample from, which is not straightforward for most of the problems. In this paper, we apply the subset simulation method, developed as a variance reduction tool in the context of structural engineering, to the problem of rare event estimation in biochemical systems. The main idea is that the rare event probability is expressed as a product of more frequent conditional probabilities. These conditional probabilities are estimated with high accuracy using Monte Carlo simulations, specifically the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Generating sample realizations of the state vector using the stochastic simulation algorithm is viewed as mapping the discrete-state continuous-time random process to the standard normal random variable vector. This viewpoint opens up the possibility of applying more sophisticated and efficient sampling schemes developed elsewhere to problems in stochastic chemical kinetics. The results obtained using the subset simulation method are compared with existing variance reduction strategies for a few benchmark problems, and a satisfactory improvement in computational time is demonstrated.

  5. Utility Estimation for Pediatric Vesicoureteral Reflux: Methodological Considerations Using an Online Survey Platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejwani, Rohit; Wang, Hsin-Hsiao S; Lloyd, Jessica C; Kokorowski, Paul J; Nelson, Caleb P; Routh, Jonathan C

    2017-03-01

    The advent of online task distribution has opened a new avenue for efficiently gathering community perspectives needed for utility estimation. Methodological consensus for estimating pediatric utilities is lacking, with disagreement over whom to sample, what perspective to use (patient vs parent) and whether instrument induced anchoring bias is significant. We evaluated what methodological factors potentially impact utility estimates for vesicoureteral reflux. Cross-sectional surveys using a time trade-off instrument were conducted via the Amazon Mechanical Turk® (https://www.mturk.com) online interface. Respondents were randomized to answer questions from child, parent or dyad perspectives on the utility of a vesicoureteral reflux health state and 1 of 3 "warm-up" scenarios (paralysis, common cold, none) before a vesicoureteral reflux scenario. Utility estimates and potential predictors were fitted to a generalized linear model to determine what factors most impacted utilities. A total of 1,627 responses were obtained. Mean respondent age was 34.9 years. Of the respondents 48% were female, 38% were married and 44% had children. Utility values were uninfluenced by child/personal vesicoureteral reflux/urinary tract infection history, income or race. Utilities were affected by perspective and were higher in the child group (34% lower in parent vs child, p pediatric conditions. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimation for small domains in double sampling for stratification ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this article, we investigate the effect of randomness of the size of a small domain on the precision of an estimator of mean for the domain under double sampling for stratification. The result shows that for a small domain that cuts across various strata with unknown weights, the sampling variance depends on the within ...

  7. Sampling strategies for efficient estimation of tree foliage biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hailemariam Temesgen; Vicente Monleon; Aaron Weiskittel; Duncan Wilson

    2011-01-01

    Conifer crowns can be highly variable both within and between trees, particularly with respect to foliage biomass and leaf area. A variety of sampling schemes have been used to estimate biomass and leaf area at the individual tree and stand scales. Rarely has the effectiveness of these sampling schemes been compared across stands or even across species. In addition,...

  8. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  9. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2008-08-28

    Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

  10. A method for estimating radioactive cesium concentrations in cattle blood using urine samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Itaru; Yamagishi, Ryoma; Sasaki, Jun; Satoh, Hiroshi; Miura, Kiyoshi; Kikuchi, Kaoru; Otani, Kumiko; Okada, Keiji

    2017-12-01

    In the region contaminated by the Fukushima nuclear accident, radioactive contamination of live cattle should be checked before slaughter. In this study, we establish a precise method for estimating radioactive cesium concentrations in cattle blood using urine samples. Blood and urine samples were collected from a total of 71 cattle on two farms in the 'difficult-to-return zone'. Urine 137 Cs, specific gravity, electrical conductivity, pH, sodium, potassium, calcium, and creatinine were measured and various estimation methods for blood 137 Cs were tested. The average error rate of the estimation was 54.2% without correction. Correcting for urine creatinine, specific gravity, electrical conductivity, or potassium improved the precision of the estimation. Correcting for specific gravity using the following formula gave the most precise estimate (average error rate = 16.9%): [blood 137 Cs] = [urinary 137 Cs]/([specific gravity] - 1)/329. Urine samples are faster to measure than blood samples because urine can be obtained in larger quantities and has a higher 137 Cs concentration than blood. These advantages of urine and the estimation precision demonstrated in our study, indicate that estimation of blood 137 Cs using urine samples is a practical means of monitoring radioactive contamination in live cattle. © 2017 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  11. Failure Probability Estimation Using Asymptotic Sampling and Its Dependence upon the Selected Sampling Scheme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martinásková Magdalena

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The article examines the use of Asymptotic Sampling (AS for the estimation of failure probability. The AS algorithm requires samples of multidimensional Gaussian random vectors, which may be obtained by many alternative means that influence the performance of the AS method. Several reliability problems (test functions have been selected in order to test AS with various sampling schemes: (i Monte Carlo designs; (ii LHS designs optimized using the Periodic Audze-Eglājs (PAE criterion; (iii designs prepared using Sobol’ sequences. All results are compared with the exact failure probability value.

  12. Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Juul, Anders

    2004-01-01

    Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazard...

  13. Explaining discrepancies in reproductive health indicators from population-based surveys and exit surveys: a case from Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meekers, D; Ogada, E A

    2001-06-01

    Reproductive health programmes often need exit surveys and population-based surveys for monitoring and evaluation. This study investigates why such studies produce discrepant estimates of condom use, sexual behaviour and condom brand knowledge, and discusses the implications for future use of exit surveys for programme monitoring. Logistic regression is used to explain differences between a household survey of 1295 persons and an exit survey among a random sample of 2550 consumers at retail outlets in RWANDA: Discrepancies in ever use of condoms and risky sexual behaviours are due to differences in socioeconomic status of the two samples. After controls, exit surveys at most outlet types have the same results as the household survey. Only exit surveys at bars, nightclubs and hotels yield significantly different estimates. However, the above-average knowledge of Prudence Plus condoms in the exit interviews is not attributable to socioeconomic or demographic variables, most likely because respondents have seen the product at the outlets. Information about condom use and sexual behaviour obtained from exit surveys appears as accurate as that obtained through household surveys. Nevertheless, exit surveys must be used cautiously. Because exit surveys may include wealthier and better-educated respondents, they are not representative of the general population. The composition of exit survey samples should be validated through existing household surveys. Comparisons across survey types are generally unadvisable, unless they control for sample differences. When generalizing to the population at large is not needed (e.g. for studies aimed at identifying the characteristics and behaviour of users of particular products or services), exit surveys can provide an appropriate alternative to household surveys.

  14. Replication Variance Estimation under Two-phase Sampling in the Presence of Non-response

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muqaddas Javed

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Kim and Yu (2011 discussed replication variance estimator for two-phase stratified sampling. In this paper estimators for mean have been proposed in two-phase stratified sampling for different situation of existence of non-response at first phase and second phase. The expressions of variances of these estimators have been derived. Furthermore, replication-based jackknife variance estimators of these variances have also been derived. Simulation study has been conducted to investigate the performance of the suggested estimators.

  15. Estimating health expectancies from two cross-sectional surveys: The intercensal method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Guillot

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Health expectancies are key indicators for monitoring the health of populations, as well as for informing debates about compression or expansion of morbidity. However, current methodologies for estimating them are not entirely satisfactory. They are either of limited applicability because of high data requirements (the multistate method or based on questionable assumptions (the Sullivan method. This paper proposes a new method, called the "intercensal" method, which relies on the multistate framework but uses widely available data. The method uses age-specific proportions "healthy" at two successive, independent cross-sectional health surveys, and, together with information on general mortality, solves for the set of transition probabilities that produces the observed sequence of proportions healthy. The system is solved by making realistic parametric assumptions about the age patterns of transition probabilities. Using data from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS and from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS, the method is tested against both the multistate method and the Sullivan method. We conclude that the intercensal approach is a promising framework for the indirect estimation of health expectancies.

  16. Estimation of reference intervals from small samples: an example using canine plasma creatinine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geffré, A; Braun, J P; Trumel, C; Concordet, D

    2009-12-01

    According to international recommendations, reference intervals should be determined from at least 120 reference individuals, which often are impossible to achieve in veterinary clinical pathology, especially for wild animals. When only a small number of reference subjects is available, the possible bias cannot be known and the normality of the distribution cannot be evaluated. A comparison of reference intervals estimated by different methods could be helpful. The purpose of this study was to compare reference limits determined from a large set of canine plasma creatinine reference values, and large subsets of this data, with estimates obtained from small samples selected randomly. Twenty sets each of 120 and 27 samples were randomly selected from a set of 1439 plasma creatinine results obtained from healthy dogs in another study. Reference intervals for the whole sample and for the large samples were determined by a nonparametric method. The estimated reference limits for the small samples were minimum and maximum, mean +/- 2 SD of native and Box-Cox-transformed values, 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles by a robust method on native and Box-Cox-transformed values, and estimates from diagrams of cumulative distribution functions. The whole sample had a heavily skewed distribution, which approached Gaussian after Box-Cox transformation. The reference limits estimated from small samples were highly variable. The closest estimates to the 1439-result reference interval for 27-result subsamples were obtained by both parametric and robust methods after Box-Cox transformation but were grossly erroneous in some cases. For small samples, it is recommended that all values be reported graphically in a dot plot or histogram and that estimates of the reference limits be compared using different methods.

  17. Semi-automatic surface sediment sampling system - A prototype to be implemented in bivalve fishing surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rufino, Marta M.; Baptista, Paulo; Pereira, Fábio; Gaspar, Miguel B.

    2018-01-01

    In the current work we propose a new method to sample surface sediment during bivalve fishing surveys. Fishing institutes all around the word carry out regular surveys with the aim of monitoring the stocks of commercial species. These surveys comprise often more than one hundred of sampling stations and cover large geographical areas. Although superficial sediment grain sizes are among the main drivers of benthic communities and provide crucial information for studies on coastal dynamics, overall there is a strong lack of this type of data, possibly, because traditional surface sediment sampling methods use grabs, that require considerable time and effort to be carried out on regular basis or on large areas. In face of these aspects, we developed an easy and un-expensive method to sample superficial sediments, during bivalve fisheries monitoring surveys, without increasing survey time or human resources. The method was successfully evaluated and validated during a typical bivalve survey carried out on the Northwest coast of Portugal, confirming that it had any interference with the survey objectives. Furthermore, the method was validated by collecting samples using a traditional Van Veen grabs (traditional method), which showed a similar grain size composition to the ones collected by the new method, on the same localities. We recommend that the procedure is implemented on regular bivalve fishing surveys, together with an image analysis system to analyse the collected samples. The new method will provide substantial quantity of data on surface sediment in coastal areas, using a non-expensive and efficient manner, with a high potential application in different fields of research.

  18. Using recall surveys to estimate harvest of cod, eel and sea migrating brown trout in Danish angling and recreational passive gear fishing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sparrevohn, Claus Reedtz; Nielsen, Jan; Storr-Paulsen, Marie

    , as all recreational fishermen have to purchase a personal non-transferable and time limited national license before fishing. However, this list will not include those fishing illegally without a license. Therefore, two types of recall surveys with their own questionnaires and group of respondents were...... carried out. The first survey - the license list survey – was carried out once in 2009 and twice in 2010. This survey had a sampling frame corresponding to the list of persons that had purchased a license within the last 12 months. Respondents were asked to provide detailed information on catch and effort...... per ICES area and quarter. In order to also estimate the fraction of fishermen that fished without a valid license, a second survey, called – the Omnibus survey-, was carried out four times. This survey targeted the entire Danish population between 16 and 74 of age...

  19. Inverse sampled Bernoulli (ISB) procedure for estimating a population proportion, with nuclear material applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, T.

    1982-01-01

    A new sampling procedure is introduced for estimating a population proportion. The procedure combines the ideas of inverse binomial sampling and Bernoulli sampling. An unbiased estimator is given with its variance. The procedure can be viewed as a generalization of inverse binomial sampling

  20. Sex and gender diversity among transgender persons in Ontario, Canada: results from a respondent-driven sampling survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheim, Ayden I; Bauer, Greta R

    2015-01-01

    Recent estimates suggest that as many as 1 in 200 adults may be trans (transgender, transsexual, or transitioned). Knowledge about dimensions of sex and gender in trans populations is crucial to development of inclusive policy, practice, and research, but limited data have been available, particularly from probability samples. The Trans PULSE community-based research project surveyed trans Ontarians (n=433) in 2009-2010 using respondent-driven sampling. Frequencies were weighted by recruitment probability to produce estimates for the networked Ontario trans population. An estimated 30% of trans Ontarians were living their day-to-day lives in their birth gender, and 23% were living in their felt gender with no medical intervention. In all, 42% were using hormones, while 15% of male-to-female spectrum persons had undergone vaginoplasty and 0.4% of female-to-male spectrum persons had had phalloplasty. Of those living in their felt gender, 59% had begun to do so within the past four years. A minority of trans Ontarians reported a linear transition from one sex to another, yet such a trajectory is often assumed to be the norm. Accounting for this observed diversity, we recommend policy and practice changes to increase social inclusion and service access for trans persons, regardless of transition status.

  1. Sex and Gender Diversity Among Transgender Persons in Ontario, Canada: Results From a Respondent-Driven Sampling Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheim, Ayden I.; Bauer, Greta R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent estimates suggest that as many as 1 in 200 adults may be trans (transgender, transsexual, or transitioned). Knowledge about dimensions of sex and gender in trans populations is crucial to development of inclusive policy, practice, and research, but limited data have been available, particularly from probability samples. The Trans PULSE community-based research project surveyed trans Ontarians (n = 433) in 2009–2010 using respondent-driven sampling. Frequencies were weighted by recruitment probability to produce estimates for the networked Ontario trans population. An estimated 30% of trans Ontarians were living their day-to-day lives in their birth gender, and 23% were living in their felt gender with no medical intervention. In all, 42% were using hormones, while 15% of male-to-female spectrum persons had undergone vaginoplasty and 0.4% of female-to-male spectrum persons had had phalloplasty. Of those living in their felt gender, 59% had begun to do so within the past four years. A minority of trans Ontarians reported a linear transition from one sex to another, yet such a trajectory is often assumed to be the norm. Accounting for this observed diversity, we recommend policy and practice changes to increase social inclusion and service access for trans persons, regardless of transition status. PMID:24750105

  2. A test of alternative estimators for volume at time 1 from remeasured point samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francis A. Roesch; Edwin J. Green; Charles T. Scott

    1993-01-01

    Two estimators for volume at time 1 for use with permanent horizontal point samples are evaluated. One estimator, used traditionally, uses only the trees sampled at time 1, while the second estimator, originally presented by Roesch and coauthors (F.A. Roesch, Jr., E.J. Green, and C.T. Scott. 1989. For. Sci. 35(2):281-293). takes advantage of additional sample...

  3. Turbidity-controlled suspended sediment sampling for runoff-event load estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack Lewis

    1996-01-01

    Abstract - For estimating suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in rivers, turbidity is generally a much better predictor than water discharge. Although it is now possible to collect continuous turbidity data even at remote sites, sediment sampling and load estimation are still conventionally based on discharge. With frequent calibration the relation of turbidity to...

  4. Performance of sampling methods to estimate log characteristics for wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisa J. Bate; Torolf R. Torgersen; Michael J. Wisdom; Edward O. Garton

    2004-01-01

    Accurate estimation of the characteristics of log resources, or coarse woody debris (CWD), is critical to effective management of wildlife and other forest resources. Despite the importance of logs as wildlife habitat, methods for sampling logs have traditionally focused on silvicultural and fire applications. These applications have emphasized estimates of log volume...

  5. Samples and data accessibility in research biobanks: an explorative survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Capocasa

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Biobanks, which contain human biological samples and/or data, provide a crucial contribution to the progress of biomedical research. However, the effective and efficient use of biobank resources depends on their accessibility. In fact, making bio-resources promptly accessible to everybody may increase the benefits for society. Furthermore, optimizing their use and ensuring their quality will promote scientific creativity and, in general, contribute to the progress of bio-medical research. Although this has become a rather common belief, several laboratories are still secretive and continue to withhold samples and data. In this study, we conducted a questionnaire-based survey in order to investigate sample and data accessibility in research biobanks operating all over the world. The survey involved a total of 46 biobanks. Most of them gave permission to access their samples (95.7% and data (85.4%, but free and unconditioned accessibility seemed not to be common practice. The analysis of the guidelines regarding the accessibility to resources of the biobanks that responded to the survey highlights three issues: (i the request for applicants to explain what they would like to do with the resources requested; (ii the role of funding, public or private, in the establishment of fruitful collaborations between biobanks and research labs; (iii the request of co-authorship in order to give access to their data. These results suggest that economic and academic aspects are involved in determining the extent of sample and data sharing stored in biobanks. As a second step of this study, we investigated the reasons behind the high diversity of requirements to access biobank resources. The analysis of informative answers suggested that the different modalities of resource accessibility seem to be largely influenced by both social context and legislation of the countries where the biobanks operate.

  6. Sample size methodology

    CERN Document Server

    Desu, M M

    2012-01-01

    One of the most important problems in designing an experiment or a survey is sample size determination and this book presents the currently available methodology. It includes both random sampling from standard probability distributions and from finite populations. Also discussed is sample size determination for estimating parameters in a Bayesian setting by considering the posterior distribution of the parameter and specifying the necessary requirements. The determination of the sample size is considered for ranking and selection problems as well as for the design of clinical trials. Appropria

  7. Using cost-effectiveness estimates from survey data to guide commissioning: an application to home care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forder, Julien; Malley, Juliette; Towers, Ann-Marie; Netten, Ann

    2014-08-01

    The aim is to describe and trial a pragmatic method to produce estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness of care services from survey data. The main challenge is in estimating the counterfactual; that is, what the patient's quality of life would be if they did not receive that level of service. A production function method is presented, which seeks to distinguish the variation in care-related quality of life in the data that is due to service use as opposed to other factors. A problem is that relevant need factors also affect the amount of service used and therefore any missing factors could create endogeneity bias. Instrumental variable estimation can mitigate this problem. This method was applied to a survey of older people using home care as a proof of concept. In the analysis, we were able to estimate a quality-of-life production function using survey data with the expected form and robust estimation diagnostics. The practical advantages with this method are clear, but there are limitations. It is computationally complex, and there is a risk of misspecification and biased results, particularly with IV estimation. One strategy would be to use this method to produce preliminary estimates, with a full trial conducted thereafter, if indicated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Estimating the Effective Sample Size of Tree Topologies from Bayesian Phylogenetic Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanfear, Robert; Hua, Xia; Warren, Dan L.

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian phylogenetic analyses estimate posterior distributions of phylogenetic tree topologies and other parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Before making inferences from these distributions, it is important to assess their adequacy. To this end, the effective sample size (ESS) estimates how many truly independent samples of a given parameter the output of the MCMC represents. The ESS of a parameter is frequently much lower than the number of samples taken from the MCMC because sequential samples from the chain can be non-independent due to autocorrelation. Typically, phylogeneticists use a rule of thumb that the ESS of all parameters should be greater than 200. However, we have no method to calculate an ESS of tree topology samples, despite the fact that the tree topology is often the parameter of primary interest and is almost always central to the estimation of other parameters. That is, we lack a method to determine whether we have adequately sampled one of the most important parameters in our analyses. In this study, we address this problem by developing methods to estimate the ESS for tree topologies. We combine these methods with two new diagnostic plots for assessing posterior samples of tree topologies, and compare their performance on simulated and empirical data sets. Combined, the methods we present provide new ways to assess the mixing and convergence of phylogenetic tree topologies in Bayesian MCMC analyses. PMID:27435794

  9. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  10. Sampling designs and methods for estimating fish-impingement losses at cooling-water intakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murarka, I.P.; Bodeau, D.J.

    1977-01-01

    Several systems for estimating fish impingement at power plant cooling-water intakes are compared to determine the most statistically efficient sampling designs and methods. Compared to a simple random sampling scheme the stratified systematic random sampling scheme, the systematic random sampling scheme, and the stratified random sampling scheme yield higher efficiencies and better estimators for the parameters in two models of fish impingement as a time-series process. Mathematical results and illustrative examples of the applications of the sampling schemes to simulated and real data are given. Some sampling designs applicable to fish-impingement studies are presented in appendixes

  11. Evaluating the quality of sampling frames used in European cross-national surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maineri, A.M.; Scherpenzeel, A.; Bristle, Johanna; Pflüger, Senta-Melissa; Butt, Sarah; Zins, Stefan; Emery, Tom; Luijkx, R.

    This report addresses the quality of the population registers which are currently being used as sampling frames in countries participating in the four cross-European surveys cooperating in SERISS: the European Social Survey (ESS), the European Values Study (EVS), the Gender and Generations Program

  12. A 172 $\\mu$W Compressively Sampled Photoplethysmographic (PPG) Readout ASIC With Heart Rate Estimation Directly From Compressively Sampled Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamula, Venkata Rajesh; Valero-Sarmiento, Jose Manuel; Yan, Long; Bozkurt, Alper; Hoof, Chris Van; Helleputte, Nick Van; Yazicioglu, Refet Firat; Verhelst, Marian

    2017-06-01

    A compressive sampling (CS) photoplethysmographic (PPG) readout with embedded feature extraction to estimate heart rate (HR) directly from compressively sampled data is presented. It integrates a low-power analog front end together with a digital back end to perform feature extraction to estimate the average HR over a 4 s interval directly from compressively sampled PPG data. The application-specified integrated circuit (ASIC) supports uniform sampling mode (1x compression) as well as CS modes with compression ratios of 8x, 10x, and 30x. CS is performed through nonuniformly subsampling the PPG signal, while feature extraction is performed using least square spectral fitting through Lomb-Scargle periodogram. The ASIC consumes 172  μ W of power from a 1.2 V supply while reducing the relative LED driver power consumption by up to 30 times without significant loss of relevant information for accurate HR estimation.

  13. [Comparison study on sampling methods of Oncomelania hupensis snail survey in marshland schistosomiasis epidemic areas in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Zhao; Wen-Xin, Zhang; Zhong, Yao; Yu-Kuan, Ma; Qing, Liu; Hou-Lang, Duan; Yi-di, Shang

    2016-06-29

    To optimize and simplify the survey method of Oncomelania hupensis snail in marshland endemic region of schistosomiasis and increase the precision, efficiency and economy of the snail survey. A quadrate experimental field was selected as the subject of 50 m×50 m size in Chayegang marshland near Henghu farm in the Poyang Lake region and a whole-covered method was adopted to survey the snails. The simple random sampling, systematic sampling and stratified random sampling methods were applied to calculate the minimum sample size, relative sampling error and absolute sampling error. The minimum sample sizes of the simple random sampling, systematic sampling and stratified random sampling methods were 300, 300 and 225, respectively. The relative sampling errors of three methods were all less than 15%. The absolute sampling errors were 0.221 7, 0.302 4 and 0.047 8, respectively. The spatial stratified sampling with altitude as the stratum variable is an efficient approach of lower cost and higher precision for the snail survey.

  14. Sample size for estimation of the Pearson correlation coefficient in cherry tomato tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Giacomini Sari

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The aim of this study was to determine the required sample size for estimation of the Pearson coefficient of correlation between cherry tomato variables. Two uniformity tests were set up in a protected environment in the spring/summer of 2014. The observed variables in each plant were mean fruit length, mean fruit width, mean fruit weight, number of bunches, number of fruits per bunch, number of fruits, and total weight of fruits, with calculation of the Pearson correlation matrix between them. Sixty eight sample sizes were planned for one greenhouse and 48 for another, with the initial sample size of 10 plants, and the others were obtained by adding five plants. For each planned sample size, 3000 estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient were obtained through bootstrap re-samplings with replacement. The sample size for each correlation coefficient was determined when the 95% confidence interval amplitude value was less than or equal to 0.4. Obtaining estimates of the Pearson correlation coefficient with high precision is difficult for parameters with a weak linear relation. Accordingly, a larger sample size is necessary to estimate them. Linear relations involving variables dealing with size and number of fruits per plant have less precision. To estimate the coefficient of correlation between productivity variables of cherry tomato, with a confidence interval of 95% equal to 0.4, it is necessary to sample 275 plants in a 250m² greenhouse, and 200 plants in a 200m² greenhouse.

  15. Statistical searches for microlensing events in large, non-uniformly sampled time-domain surveys: A test using palomar transient factory data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price-Whelan, Adrian M.; Agüeros, Marcel A. [Department of Astronomy, Columbia University, 550 W 120th Street, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Fournier, Amanda P. [Department of Physics, Broida Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Street, Rachel [Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network, Inc., 6740 Cortona Drive, Suite 102, Santa Barbara, CA 93117 (United States); Ofek, Eran O. [Benoziyo Center for Astrophysics, Weizmann Institute of Science, 76100 Rehovot (Israel); Covey, Kevin R. [Lowell Observatory, 1400 West Mars Hill Road, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 (United States); Levitan, David; Sesar, Branimir [Division of Physics, Mathematics, and Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Laher, Russ R.; Surace, Jason, E-mail: adrn@astro.columbia.edu [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, Mail Stop 314-6, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2014-01-20

    Many photometric time-domain surveys are driven by specific goals, such as searches for supernovae or transiting exoplanets, which set the cadence with which fields are re-imaged. In the case of the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), several sub-surveys are conducted in parallel, leading to non-uniform sampling over its ∼20,000 deg{sup 2} footprint. While the median 7.26 deg{sup 2} PTF field has been imaged ∼40 times in the R band, ∼2300 deg{sup 2} have been observed >100 times. We use PTF data to study the trade off between searching for microlensing events in a survey whose footprint is much larger than that of typical microlensing searches, but with far-from-optimal time sampling. To examine the probability that microlensing events can be recovered in these data, we test statistics used on uniformly sampled data to identify variables and transients. We find that the von Neumann ratio performs best for identifying simulated microlensing events in our data. We develop a selection method using this statistic and apply it to data from fields with >10 R-band observations, 1.1 × 10{sup 9} light curves, uncovering three candidate microlensing events. We lack simultaneous, multi-color photometry to confirm these as microlensing events. However, their number is consistent with predictions for the event rate in the PTF footprint over the survey's three years of operations, as estimated from near-field microlensing models. This work can help constrain all-sky event rate predictions and tests microlensing signal recovery in large data sets, which will be useful to future time-domain surveys, such as that planned with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.

  16. Data Processing Procedures and Methodology for Estimating Trip Distances for the 1995 American Travel Survey (ATS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, H.-L.; Rollow, J.

    2000-05-01

    The 1995 American Travel Survey (ATS) collected information from approximately 80,000 U.S. households about their long distance travel (one-way trips of 100 miles or more) during the year of 1995. It is the most comprehensive survey of where, why, and how U.S. residents travel since 1977. ATS is a joint effort by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) and the U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Census (Census); BTS provided the funding and supervision of the project, and Census selected the samples, conducted interviews, and processed the data. This report documents the technical support for the ATS provided by the Center for Transportation Analysis (CTA) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), which included the estimation of trip distances as well as data quality editing and checking of variables required for the distance calculations.

  17. Fixed-location hydroacoustic monitoring designs for estimating fish passage using stratified random and systematic sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skalski, J.R.; Hoffman, A.; Ransom, B.H.; Steig, T.W.

    1993-01-01

    Five alternate sampling designs are compared using 15 d of 24-h continuous hydroacoustic data to identify the most favorable approach to fixed-location hydroacoustic monitoring of salmonid outmigrants. Four alternative aproaches to systematic sampling are compared among themselves and with stratified random sampling (STRS). Stratifying systematic sampling (STSYS) on a daily basis is found to reduce sampling error in multiday monitoring studies. Although sampling precision was predictable with varying levels of effort in STRS, neither magnitude nor direction of change in precision was predictable when effort was varied in systematic sampling (SYS). Furthermore, modifying systematic sampling to include replicated (e.g., nested) sampling (RSYS) is further shown to provide unbiased point and variance estimates as does STRS. Numerous short sampling intervals (e.g., 12 samples of 1-min duration per hour) must be monitored hourly using RSYS to provide efficient, unbiased point and interval estimates. For equal levels of effort, STRS outperformed all variations of SYS examined. Parametric approaches to confidence interval estimates are found to be superior to nonparametric interval estimates (i.e., bootstrap and jackknife) in estimating total fish passage. 10 refs., 1 fig., 8 tabs

  18. Optimizing denominator data estimation through a multimodel approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ward Bryssinckx

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To assess the risk of (zoonotic disease transmission in developing countries, decision makers generally rely on distribution estimates of animals from survey records or projections of historical enumeration results. Given the high cost of large-scale surveys, the sample size is often restricted and the accuracy of estimates is therefore low, especially when spatial high-resolution is applied. This study explores possibilities of improving the accuracy of livestock distribution maps without additional samples using spatial modelling based on regression tree forest models, developed using subsets of the Uganda 2008 Livestock Census data, and several covariates. The accuracy of these spatial models as well as the accuracy of an ensemble of a spatial model and direct estimate was compared to direct estimates and “true” livestock figures based on the entire dataset. The new approach is shown to effectively increase the livestock estimate accuracy (median relative error decrease of 0.166-0.037 for total sample sizes of 80-1,600 animals, respectively. This outcome suggests that the accuracy levels obtained with direct estimates can indeed be achieved with lower sample sizes and the multimodel approach presented here, indicating a more efficient use of financial resources.

  19. Use of models in large-area forest surveys: comparing model-assisted, model-based and hybrid estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goran Stahl; Svetlana Saarela; Sebastian Schnell; Soren Holm; Johannes Breidenbach; Sean P. Healey; Paul L. Patterson; Steen Magnussen; Erik Naesset; Ronald E. McRoberts; Timothy G. Gregoire

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of models for increasing the precision of estimators in large-area forest surveys. It is motivated by the increasing availability of remotely sensed data, which facilitates the development of models predicting the variables of interest in forest surveys. We present, review and compare three different estimation frameworks where...

  20. The Hubble Space Telescope Medium Deep Survey Cluster Sample: Methodology and Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostrander, E. J.; Nichol, R. C.; Ratnatunga, K. U.; Griffiths, R. E.

    1998-12-01

    We present a new, objectively selected, sample of galaxy overdensities detected in the Hubble Space Telescope Medium Deep Survey (MDS). These clusters/groups were found using an automated procedure that involved searching for statistically significant galaxy overdensities. The contrast of the clusters against the field galaxy population is increased when morphological data are used to search around bulge-dominated galaxies. In total, we present 92 overdensities above a probability threshold of 99.5%. We show, via extensive Monte Carlo simulations, that at least 60% of these overdensities are likely to be real clusters and groups and not random line-of-sight superpositions of galaxies. For each overdensity in the MDS cluster sample, we provide a richness and the average of the bulge-to-total ratio of galaxies within each system. This MDS cluster sample potentially contains some of the most distant clusters/groups ever detected, with about 25% of the overdensities having estimated redshifts z > ~0.9. We have made this sample publicly available to facilitate spectroscopic confirmation of these clusters and help more detailed studies of cluster and galaxy evolution. We also report the serendipitous discovery of a new cluster close on the sky to the rich optical cluster Cl l0016+16 at z = 0.546. This new overdensity, HST 001831+16208, may be coincident with both an X-ray source and a radio source. HST 001831+16208 is the third cluster/group discovered near to Cl 0016+16 and appears to strengthen the claims of Connolly et al. of superclustering at high redshift.

  1. Longitudinal Weight Calibration with Estimated Control Totals for Cross Sectional Survey Data: Theory and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qing, Siyu

    2014-01-01

    The National Science Foundation (NSF) Survey of Doctorate Recipients (SDR) collects information on a sample of individuals in the United States with PhD degrees. A significant portion of the sampled individuals appear in multiple survey years and can be linked across time. Survey weights in each year are created and adjusted for oversampling and…

  2. Does self-selection affect samples' representativeness in online surveys? An investigation in online video game research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaal, Yasser; van Singer, Mathias; Chatton, Anne; Achab, Sophia; Zullino, Daniele; Rothen, Stephane; Khan, Riaz; Billieux, Joel; Thorens, Gabriel

    2014-07-07

    The number of medical studies performed through online surveys has increased dramatically in recent years. Despite their numerous advantages (eg, sample size, facilitated access to individuals presenting stigmatizing issues), selection bias may exist in online surveys. However, evidence on the representativeness of self-selected samples in online studies is patchy. Our objective was to explore the representativeness of a self-selected sample of online gamers using online players' virtual characters (avatars). All avatars belonged to individuals playing World of Warcraft (WoW), currently the most widely used online game. Avatars' characteristics were defined using various games' scores, reported on the WoW's official website, and two self-selected samples from previous studies were compared with a randomly selected sample of avatars. We used scores linked to 1240 avatars (762 from the self-selected samples and 478 from the random sample). The two self-selected samples of avatars had higher scores on most of the assessed variables (except for guild membership and exploration). Furthermore, some guilds were overrepresented in the self-selected samples. Our results suggest that more proficient players or players more involved in the game may be more likely to participate in online surveys. Caution is needed in the interpretation of studies based on online surveys that used a self-selection recruitment procedure. Epidemiological evidence on the reduced representativeness of sample of online surveys is warranted.

  3. Sampling strategy for a large scale indoor radiation survey - a pilot project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strand, T.; Stranden, E.

    1986-01-01

    Optimisation of a stratified random sampling strategy for large scale indoor radiation surveys is discussed. It is based on the results from a small scale pilot project where variances in dose rates within different categories of houses were assessed. By selecting a predetermined precision level for the mean dose rate in a given region, the number of measurements needed can be optimised. The results of a pilot project in Norway are presented together with the development of the final sampling strategy for a planned large scale survey. (author)

  4. Accurate Frequency Estimation Based On Three-Parameter Sine-Fitting With Three FFT Samples

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Xin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a simple DFT-based golden section searching algorithm (DGSSA for the single tone frequency estimation. Because of truncation and discreteness in signal samples, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT are inevitable to cause the spectrum leakage and fence effect which lead to a low estimation accuracy. This method can improve the estimation accuracy under conditions of a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and a low resolution. This method firstly uses three FFT samples to determine the frequency searching scope, then – besides the frequency – the estimated values of amplitude, phase and dc component are obtained by minimizing the least square (LS fitting error of three-parameter sine fitting. By setting reasonable stop conditions or the number of iterations, the accurate frequency estimation can be realized. The accuracy of this method, when applied to observed single-tone sinusoid samples corrupted by white Gaussian noise, is investigated by different methods with respect to the unbiased Cramer-Rao Low Bound (CRLB. The simulation results show that the root mean square error (RMSE of the frequency estimation curve is consistent with the tendency of CRLB as SNR increases, even in the case of a small number of samples. The average RMSE of the frequency estimation is less than 1.5 times the CRLB with SNR = 20 dB and N = 512.

  5. Estimates and sampling schemes for the instrumentation of accountability systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jewell, W.S.; Kwiatkowski, J.W.

    1976-10-01

    The problem of estimation of a physical quantity from a set of measurements is considered, where the measurements are made on samples with a hierarchical error structure, and where within-groups error variances may vary from group to group at each level of the structure; minimum mean squared-error estimators are developed, and the case where the physical quantity is a random variable with known prior mean and variance is included. Estimators for the error variances are also given, and optimization of experimental design is considered

  6. Increasing fMRI sampling rate improves Granger causality estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fa-Hsuan Lin

    Full Text Available Estimation of causal interactions between brain areas is necessary for elucidating large-scale functional brain networks underlying behavior and cognition. Granger causality analysis of time series data can quantitatively estimate directional information flow between brain regions. Here, we show that such estimates are significantly improved when the temporal sampling rate of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI is increased 20-fold. Specifically, healthy volunteers performed a simple visuomotor task during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD contrast based whole-head inverse imaging (InI. Granger causality analysis based on raw InI BOLD data sampled at 100-ms resolution detected the expected causal relations, whereas when the data were downsampled to the temporal resolution of 2 s typically used in echo-planar fMRI, the causality could not be detected. An additional control analysis, in which we SINC interpolated additional data points to the downsampled time series at 0.1-s intervals, confirmed that the improvements achieved with the real InI data were not explainable by the increased time-series length alone. We therefore conclude that the high-temporal resolution of InI improves the Granger causality connectivity analysis of the human brain.

  7. Pseudo-populations a basic concept in statistical surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Quatember, Andreas

    2015-01-01

    This book emphasizes that artificial or pseudo-populations play an important role in statistical surveys from finite universes in two manners: firstly, the concept of pseudo-populations may substantially improve users’ understanding of various aspects in the sampling theory and survey methodology; an example of this scenario is the Horvitz-Thompson estimator. Secondly, statistical procedures exist in which pseudo-populations actually have to be generated. An example of such a scenario can be found in simulation studies in the field of survey sampling, where close-to-reality pseudo-populations are generated from known sample and population data to form the basis for the simulation process. The chapters focus on estimation methods, sampling techniques, nonresponse, questioning designs and statistical disclosure control.This book is a valuable reference in understanding the importance of the pseudo-population concept and applying it in teaching and research.

  8. Environmental DNA (eDNA sampling improves occurrence and detection estimates of invasive burmese pythons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret E Hunter

    Full Text Available Environmental DNA (eDNA methods are used to detect DNA that is shed into the aquatic environment by cryptic or low density species. Applied in eDNA studies, occupancy models can be used to estimate occurrence and detection probabilities and thereby account for imperfect detection. However, occupancy terminology has been applied inconsistently in eDNA studies, and many have calculated occurrence probabilities while not considering the effects of imperfect detection. Low detection of invasive giant constrictors using visual surveys and traps has hampered the estimation of occupancy and detection estimates needed for population management in southern Florida, USA. Giant constrictor snakes pose a threat to native species and the ecological restoration of the Florida Everglades. To assist with detection, we developed species-specific eDNA assays using quantitative PCR (qPCR for the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus, Northern African python (P. sebae, boa constrictor (Boa constrictor, and the green (Eunectes murinus and yellow anaconda (E. notaeus. Burmese pythons, Northern African pythons, and boa constrictors are established and reproducing, while the green and yellow anaconda have the potential to become established. We validated the python and boa constrictor assays using laboratory trials and tested all species in 21 field locations distributed in eight southern Florida regions. Burmese python eDNA was detected in 37 of 63 field sampling events; however, the other species were not detected. Although eDNA was heterogeneously distributed in the environment, occupancy models were able to provide the first estimates of detection probabilities, which were greater than 91%. Burmese python eDNA was detected along the leading northern edge of the known population boundary. The development of informative detection tools and eDNA occupancy models can improve conservation efforts in southern Florida and support more extensive studies of invasive

  9. Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling improves occurrence and detection estimates of invasive burmese pythons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Margaret E; Oyler-McCance, Sara J; Dorazio, Robert M; Fike, Jennifer A; Smith, Brian J; Hunter, Charles T; Reed, Robert N; Hart, Kristen M

    2015-01-01

    Environmental DNA (eDNA) methods are used to detect DNA that is shed into the aquatic environment by cryptic or low density species. Applied in eDNA studies, occupancy models can be used to estimate occurrence and detection probabilities and thereby account for imperfect detection. However, occupancy terminology has been applied inconsistently in eDNA studies, and many have calculated occurrence probabilities while not considering the effects of imperfect detection. Low detection of invasive giant constrictors using visual surveys and traps has hampered the estimation of occupancy and detection estimates needed for population management in southern Florida, USA. Giant constrictor snakes pose a threat to native species and the ecological restoration of the Florida Everglades. To assist with detection, we developed species-specific eDNA assays using quantitative PCR (qPCR) for the Burmese python (Python molurus bivittatus), Northern African python (P. sebae), boa constrictor (Boa constrictor), and the green (Eunectes murinus) and yellow anaconda (E. notaeus). Burmese pythons, Northern African pythons, and boa constrictors are established and reproducing, while the green and yellow anaconda have the potential to become established. We validated the python and boa constrictor assays using laboratory trials and tested all species in 21 field locations distributed in eight southern Florida regions. Burmese python eDNA was detected in 37 of 63 field sampling events; however, the other species were not detected. Although eDNA was heterogeneously distributed in the environment, occupancy models were able to provide the first estimates of detection probabilities, which were greater than 91%. Burmese python eDNA was detected along the leading northern edge of the known population boundary. The development of informative detection tools and eDNA occupancy models can improve conservation efforts in southern Florida and support more extensive studies of invasive constrictors

  10. Better Fire Emissions Estimates for Tricky Species Illustrated with a Simple Empirical Burn-to-Sample Plume Mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatfield, R. B.; Andreae, M. O.; Lareau, N.

    2017-12-01

    Methodologies for estimating emission factors (EFs) and broader emission relationship (ERs) (for e.g., O3 production or aerosol absorption) have been difficult to make accurate and convincing; this is largely due to non-fire effects on both CO2 and also fire-emitted trace species. We present a new view of these multiple effects as they affect downwind tracer samples observed by aircraft in NASA's ARCTAS and SEAC4RS airborne missions. This view leads to our method for estimates of ERs and EFs that allow spatially detailed views focusing on individual samples, a Mixed Effects Emission Ratio Technique (MERET). We concentrate on presenting a generalized viewpoint: a simple idealized model of a fire plume entraining air from near-flames upward and then outward to a sampling point, a view base on observations of typical situations. Actual evolution of a plume can depend intricately on the fully history of entrainment, entraining concentration levels of CO2 and tracer species, and mixing. Observations suggest that our simple plume model with just two (analyzed) values for entrained CO2 and one or potentially two values for environmental concentrations for each tracer can serve surprisingly well for mixed-effects regression estimates. Such details appears imperative for long-lived gases like CH4, CO, and N2O. In particular, it is difficult to distinguish fire-sourced emissions from air entrained near the flames, entrained in a way proportional to fire intensity. These entraining concentrations may vary significantly from those later in plume evolution. In addition, such detail also highlights behavior of emissions that react on the path to sampling, e.g. fire-sourced or entrained urban NOx. Some caveats regarding poor sampling situations, and some warning signs, based on this empirical plume description and on MERET analyses, are demonstrated. Some information is available when multiple tracers are analyzed. MERET estimates for ERs of short and these long-lived species are

  11. Survey of food radioactivity and estimation of internal dose from ingestion in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Jingyuan; Zhu Hongda; Han Peizhen

    1988-01-01

    In order to provide necessary bases for establishing 'Radionuclide Concentration Limits in Food stuffs', survey on radionuclide contents in Chinese food and estimation of internal dose from ingestion were carried out with the cooperation of 30 radiation protection establishments during the period 1982-1986. Activity concentrations in 14 categories (27 kinds) of Chinese food for 22 radionuclides were determined. In the light of three principal types of Chinese diet, food samples were collected from normal radiation background areas in 14 provinces or autonomous regions and three similarly elevated natural background areas. Annual intake by ingestion and resultant committed dose equivalents to general public for 15 radionuclides in these areas were estimated. In normal background areas the total annual intake of the 15 radionuclides by the public (adlut males) is about 4.2 x 10 4 Bq, and the resultant total committed dose equivalent is about 3.43 x 10 -4 Sv, but in two elevated natural background area the public annual intake and resulting committed dose equivalents for some natural radionulides are much higher than those in normal areas, while no obvious radiocontamination was discoveried relative contribution of each food category or each radionuclide to the total are discussed

  12. Effort versus Reward: Preparing Samples for Fungal Community Characterization in High-Throughput Sequencing Surveys of Soils.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zewei Song

    Full Text Available Next generation fungal amplicon sequencing is being used with increasing frequency to study fungal diversity in various ecosystems; however, the influence of sample preparation on the characterization of fungal community is poorly understood. We investigated the effects of four procedural modifications to library preparation for high-throughput sequencing (HTS. The following treatments were considered: 1 the amount of soil used in DNA extraction, 2 the inclusion of additional steps (freeze/thaw cycles, sonication, or hot water bath incubation in the extraction procedure, 3 the amount of DNA template used in PCR, and 4 the effect of sample pooling, either physically or computationally. Soils from two different ecosystems in Minnesota, USA, one prairie and one forest site, were used to assess the generality of our results. The first three treatments did not significantly influence observed fungal OTU richness or community structure at either site. Physical pooling captured more OTU richness compared to individual samples, but total OTU richness at each site was highest when individual samples were computationally combined. We conclude that standard extraction kit protocols are well optimized for fungal HTS surveys, but because sample pooling can significantly influence OTU richness estimates, it is important to carefully consider the study aims when planning sampling procedures.

  13. Zinc estimates in ore and slag samples and analysis of ash in coal samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umamaheswara Rao, K.; Narayana, D.G.S.; Subrahmanyam, Y.

    1984-01-01

    Zinc estimates in ore and slag samples were made using the radioisotope X-ray fluorescence method. A 10 mCi 238 Pu was employed as the primary source of radiation and a thin crystal NaI(Ti) spectrometer was used to accomplish the detection of the 8.64 keV Zinc K-characteristic X-ray line. The results are reported. Ash content of coal concerning about 100 samples from Ravindra Khani VI and VII mines in Andhra Pradesh were measured using X-ray backscattering method with compensation for varying concentrations of iron in different coal samples through iron-X-ray fluorescent intensity measurements. The ash percent is found to range from 10 to 40. (author)

  14. A sample of galaxy pairs identified from the LAMOST spectral survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen, Shi-Yin; Argudo-Fernández, Maria; Chen, Li; Feng, Shuai; Hou, Jin-Liang; Shao, Zheng-Yi; Chen, Xiao-Yan; Luo, A-Li; Wu, Hong; Yang, Hai-Feng; Yang, Ming; Hou, Yong-Hui; Wang, Yue-Fei; Jiang, Peng; Wang, Ting-Gui; Jing, Yi-Peng; Kong, Xu; Wang, Wen-Ting; Luo, Zhi-Jian; Wu, Xue-Bing

    2016-01-01

    A small fraction (< 10%) of the SDSS main galaxy (MG) sample has not been targeted with spectroscopy due to the effect of fiber collisions. These galaxies have been compiled into the input catalog of the LAMOST ExtraGAlactic Surveys and named the complementary galaxy sample. In this paper, we introduce this project and status of the spectroscopies associated with the complementary galaxies in the first two years of the LAMOST spectral survey (till Sep. of 2014). Moreover, we present a sample of 1102 galaxy pairs identified from the LAMOST complementary galaxies and SDSS MGs, which are defined as two members that have a projected distance smaller than 100 h −1 70 kpc and a recessional velocity difference smaller than 500 km s −1 . Compared with galaxy pairs that are only selected from SDSS, the LAMOST-SDSS pairs have the advantages of not being biased toward large separations and therefore act as a useful supplement in statistical studies of galaxy interaction and galaxy merging. (paper)

  15. Using cross-sectional surveys to estimate the number of severely malnourished children needing to be enrolled in specific treatment programmes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dale, Nancy M; Myatt, Mark; Prudhon, Claudine

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: When planning severe acute malnutrition (SAM) treatment services, estimates of the number of children requiring treatment are needed. Prevalence surveys, used with population estimates, can directly estimate the number of prevalent cases but not the number of subsequent incident cases...... in different contexts. DESIGN: Observational study, with J estimated by correlating expected numbers of children to be treated, based on prevalence surveys, population estimates and assumed coverage, with the observed numbers of SAM patients treated. SETTING: Survey and programme data from six African...

  16. Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

    2010-11-01

    Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions.

  17. A technical survey on tire-road friction estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Seyedmeysam KHALEGHIAN; Anahita EMAMI; Saied TAHERI

    2017-01-01

    Lack of driver's knowledge about the abrupt changes in pavement's friction and poor performance of the vehicle's stability,traction,and ABS controllers on the low friction surfaces are the most important factors affecting car crashes.Due to its direct relation to vehicle stability,accurate estimation of tire-road friction is of interest to all vehicle and tire companies.Many studies have been conducted in this field and researchers have used different tools and have proposed different algorithms.This literature survey introduces different approaches,which have been widely used to estimate the friction or other related parameters,and covers the recent literature that contains these methodologies.The emphasize of this review paper is on the algorithms and studies,which are more popular and have been repeated several times.The focus has been divided into two main groups:experiment-based and model-based approaches.Each of these main groups has several sub-categories,which are explained in the next few sections.Several summary tables are provided in which the overall feature of each approach is reviewed that gives the reader the general picture of different algorithms,which are widely used in friction estimation studies.

  18. Weighting Strategies for Combining Data from Dual-Frame Telephone Surveys: Emerging Evidence from Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baffour Bernard

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Until quite recently, telephone surveys have typically relied on landline telephone numbers. However, with the increasing popularity and affordability of mobile phones, there has been a surge in households that do not have landline connections. Additionally, there has been a decline in the response rates and population coverage of landline telephone surveys, creating a challenge to collecting representative social data. Dual-frame telephone surveys that use both landline and mobile phone sampling frames can overcome the incompleteness of landline-only telephone sampling. However, surveying mobile phone users introduces new complexities in sampling, nonresponse measurement and statistical weighting. This article examines these issues and illustrates the consequences of failing to include mobile-phone-only users in telephone surveys using data from Australia. Results show that there are significant differences in estimates of populations’ characteristics when using information solely from the landline or mobile telephone sample. These biases in the population estimates are significantly reduced when data from the mobile and landline samples are combined and appropriate dual-frame survey estimators are used. The optimal choice of a dual-frame estimation strategy depends on the availability of good-quality information that can account for the differential patterns of nonresponse by frame.

  19. Estimation of sample size and testing power (Part 3).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

    2011-12-01

    This article introduces the definition and sample size estimation of three special tests (namely, non-inferiority test, equivalence test and superiority test) for qualitative data with the design of one factor with two levels having a binary response variable. Non-inferiority test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the efficacy of the experimental drug is not clinically inferior to that of the positive control drug. Equivalence test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the experimental drug and the control drug have clinically equivalent efficacy. Superiority test refers to the research design of which the objective is to verify that the efficacy of the experimental drug is clinically superior to that of the control drug. By specific examples, this article introduces formulas of sample size estimation for the three special tests, and their SAS realization in detail.

  20. Integrating national surveys to estimate small area variations in poor health and limiting long-term illness in Great Britain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Graham; Aitken, Grant; Taylor, Joanna; Twigg, Liz

    2017-08-28

    This study aims to address, for the first time, the challenges of constructing small area estimates of health status using linked national surveys. The study also seeks to assess the concordance of these small area estimates with data from national censuses. Population level health status in England, Scotland and Wales. A linked integrated dataset of 23 374 survey respondents (16+ years) from the 2011 waves of the Health Survey for England (n=8603), the Scottish Health Survey (n=7537) and the Welsh Health Survey (n=7234). Population prevalence of poorer self-rated health and limiting long-term illness. A multilevel small area estimation modelling approach was used to estimate prevalence of these outcomes for middle super output areas in England and Wales and intermediate zones in Scotland. The estimates were then compared with matched measures from the contemporaneous 2011 UK Census. There was a strong positive association between the small area estimates and matched census measures for all three countries for both poorer self-rated health (r=0.828, 95% CI 0.821 to 0.834) and limiting long-term illness (r=0.831, 95% CI 0.824 to 0.837), although systematic differences were evident, and small area estimation tended to indicate higher prevalences than census data. Despite strong concordance, variations in the small area prevalences of poorer self-rated health and limiting long-term illness evident in census data cannot be replicated perfectly using small area estimation with linked national surveys. This reflects a lack of harmonisation between surveys over question wording and design. The nature of small area estimates as 'expected values' also needs to be better understood. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  1. Probability sampling design in ethnobotanical surveys of medicinal plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariano Martinez Espinosa

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Non-probability sampling design can be used in ethnobotanical surveys of medicinal plants. However, this method does not allow statistical inferences to be made from the data generated. The aim of this paper is to present a probability sampling design that is applicable in ethnobotanical studies of medicinal plants. The sampling design employed in the research titled "Ethnobotanical knowledge of medicinal plants used by traditional communities of Nossa Senhora Aparecida do Chumbo district (NSACD, Poconé, Mato Grosso, Brazil" was used as a case study. Probability sampling methods (simple random and stratified sampling were used in this study. In order to determine the sample size, the following data were considered: population size (N of 1179 families; confidence coefficient, 95%; sample error (d, 0.05; and a proportion (p, 0.5. The application of this sampling method resulted in a sample size (n of at least 290 families in the district. The present study concludes that probability sampling methods necessarily have to be employed in ethnobotanical studies of medicinal plants, particularly where statistical inferences have to be made using data obtained. This can be achieved by applying different existing probability sampling methods, or better still, a combination of such methods.

  2. Graph Sampling for Covariance Estimation

    KAUST Repository

    Chepuri, Sundeep Prabhakar

    2017-04-25

    In this paper the focus is on subsampling as well as reconstructing the second-order statistics of signals residing on nodes of arbitrary undirected graphs. Second-order stationary graph signals may be obtained by graph filtering zero-mean white noise and they admit a well-defined power spectrum whose shape is determined by the frequency response of the graph filter. Estimating the graph power spectrum forms an important component of stationary graph signal processing and related inference tasks such as Wiener prediction or inpainting on graphs. The central result of this paper is that by sampling a significantly smaller subset of vertices and using simple least squares, we can reconstruct the second-order statistics of the graph signal from the subsampled observations, and more importantly, without any spectral priors. To this end, both a nonparametric approach as well as parametric approaches including moving average and autoregressive models for the graph power spectrum are considered. The results specialize for undirected circulant graphs in that the graph nodes leading to the best compression rates are given by the so-called minimal sparse rulers. A near-optimal greedy algorithm is developed to design the subsampling scheme for the non-parametric and the moving average models, whereas a particular subsampling scheme that allows linear estimation for the autoregressive model is proposed. Numerical experiments on synthetic as well as real datasets related to climatology and processing handwritten digits are provided to demonstrate the developed theory.

  3. Survey of pork, poultry, coffee, beer and pulses for ochratoxin A

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kevin

    1998-01-01

    Surveys have been carried out to estimate the levels of ochratoxin A in pork, poultry, coffee, beer and pulses.. A total of 286 samples were analysed The results show that compared with cereals and cereal products the contribution from the foods surveyed to the total intake of ochratoxin A by the......Surveys have been carried out to estimate the levels of ochratoxin A in pork, poultry, coffee, beer and pulses.. A total of 286 samples were analysed The results show that compared with cereals and cereal products the contribution from the foods surveyed to the total intake of ochratoxin...

  4. The U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Collections Management System (GCMS)—A master catalog and collections management plan for U.S. Geological Survey geologic samples and sample collections

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is widely recognized in the earth science community as possessing extensive collections of earth materials collected by research personnel over the course of its history. In 2006, a Geologic Collections Inventory was conducted within the USGS Geology Discipline to determine the extent and nature of its sample collections, and in 2008, a working group was convened by the USGS National Geologic and Geophysical Data Preservation Program to examine ways in which these collections could be coordinated, cataloged, and made available to researchers both inside and outside the USGS. The charge to this working group was to evaluate the proposition of creating a Geologic Collections Management System (GCMS), a centralized database that would (1) identify all existing USGS geologic collections, regardless of size, (2) create a virtual link among the collections, and (3) provide a way for scientists and other researchers to obtain access to the samples and data in which they are interested. Additionally, the group was instructed to develop criteria for evaluating current collections and to establish an operating plan and set of standard practices for handling, identifying, and managing future sample collections. Policies and procedures promoted by the GCMS would be based on extant best practices established by the National Science Foundation and the Smithsonian Institution. The resulting report—USGS Circular 1410, “The U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Collections Management System (GCMS): A Master Catalog and Collections Management Plan for U.S. Geological Survey Geologic Samples and Sample Collections”—has been developed for sample repositories to be a guide to establishing common practices in the collection, retention, and disposal of geologic research materials throughout the USGS.

  5. Estimating sample size for a small-quadrat method of botanical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reports the results of a study conducted to determine an appropriate sample size for a small-quadrat method of botanical survey for application in the Mixed Bushveld of South Africa. Species density and grass density were measured using a small-quadrat method in eight plant communities in the Nylsvley Nature Reserve.

  6. Unemployment estimation: Spatial point referenced methods and models

    KAUST Repository

    Pereira, Soraia; Turkman, Kamil Feridun; Correia, Luis; Rue, Haavard

    2017-01-01

    Portuguese Labor force survey, from 4th quarter of 2014 onwards, started geo-referencing the sampling units, namely the dwellings in which the surveys are carried. This opens new possibilities in analysing and estimating unemployment and its spatial

  7. Application of Singh et al., unbiased estimator in a dual to ratio-cum ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper applied an unbiased estimator in a dual to ratio–cum-product estimator in sample surveys to double sampling design. Its efficiency over the conventional biased double sampling design estimator was determined based on the conditions attached to its supremacy. Three different data sets were used to testify to ...

  8. Infusion and sampling site effects on two-pool model estimates of leucine metabolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helland, S.J.; Grisdale-Helland, B.; Nissen, S.

    1988-01-01

    To assess the effect of site of isotope infusion on estimates of leucine metabolism infusions of alpha-[4,5-3H]ketoisocaproate (KIC) and [U- 14 C]leucine were made into the left or right ventricles of sheep and pigs. Blood was sampled from the opposite ventricle. In both species, left ventricular infusions resulted in significantly lower specific radioactivities (SA) of [ 14 C]leucine and [ 3 H]KIC. [ 14 C]KIC SA was found to be insensitive to infusion and sampling sites. [ 14 C]KIC was in addition found to be equal to the SA of [ 14 C]leucine only during the left heart infusions. Therefore, [ 14 C]KIC SA was used as the only estimate for [ 14 C]SA in the equations for the two-pool model. This model eliminated the influence of site of infusion and blood sampling on the estimates for leucine entry and reduced the impact on the estimates for proteolysis and oxidation. This two-pool model could not compensate for the underestimation of transamination reactions occurring during the traditional venous isotope infusion and arterial blood sampling

  9. Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bochaton Audrey

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods. Methods We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected a priori determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision. Application We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population. Conclusion This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind

  10. Sampling in health geography: reconciling geographical objectives and probabilistic methods. An example of a health survey in Vientiane (Lao PDR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallée, Julie; Souris, Marc; Fournet, Florence; Bochaton, Audrey; Mobillion, Virginie; Peyronnie, Karine; Salem, Gérard

    2007-06-01

    Geographical objectives and probabilistic methods are difficult to reconcile in a unique health survey. Probabilistic methods focus on individuals to provide estimates of a variable's prevalence with a certain precision, while geographical approaches emphasise the selection of specific areas to study interactions between spatial characteristics and health outcomes. A sample selected from a small number of specific areas creates statistical challenges: the observations are not independent at the local level, and this results in poor statistical validity at the global level. Therefore, it is difficult to construct a sample that is appropriate for both geographical and probability methods. We used a two-stage selection procedure with a first non-random stage of selection of clusters. Instead of randomly selecting clusters, we deliberately chose a group of clusters, which as a whole would contain all the variation in health measures in the population. As there was no health information available before the survey, we selected a priori determinants that can influence the spatial homogeneity of the health characteristics. This method yields a distribution of variables in the sample that closely resembles that in the overall population, something that cannot be guaranteed with randomly-selected clusters, especially if the number of selected clusters is small. In this way, we were able to survey specific areas while minimising design effects and maximising statistical precision. We applied this strategy in a health survey carried out in Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic. We selected well-known health determinants with unequal spatial distribution within the city: nationality and literacy. We deliberately selected a combination of clusters whose distribution of nationality and literacy is similar to the distribution in the general population. This paper describes the conceptual reasoning behind the construction of the survey sample and shows that it can be

  11. Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

    2018-06-01

    Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. 36 CFR 9.42 - Well records and reports, plots and maps, samples, tests and surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Well records and reports, plots and maps, samples, tests and surveys. Any technical data gathered... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Well records and reports, plots and maps, samples, tests and surveys. 9.42 Section 9.42 Parks, Forests, and Public Property...

  13. Dealing with trade-offs in destructive sampling designs for occupancy surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Canessa

    Full Text Available Occupancy surveys should be designed to minimise false absences. This is commonly achieved by increasing replication or increasing the efficiency of surveys. In the case of destructive sampling designs, in which searches of individual microhabitats represent the repeat surveys, minimising false absences leads to an inherent trade-off. Surveyors can sample more low quality microhabitats, bearing the resultant financial costs and producing wider-spread impacts, or they can target high quality microhabitats were the focal species is more likely to be found and risk more severe impacts on local habitat quality. We show how this trade-off can be solved with a decision-theoretic approach, using the Millewa Skink Hemiergis millewae from southern Australia as a case study. Hemiergis millewae is an endangered reptile that is best detected using destructive sampling of grass hummocks. Within sites that were known to be occupied by H. millewae, logistic regression modelling revealed that lizards were more frequently detected in large hummocks. If this model is an accurate representation of the detection process, searching large hummocks is more efficient and requires less replication, but this strategy also entails destruction of the best microhabitats for the species. We developed an optimisation tool to calculate the minimum combination of the number and size of hummocks to search to achieve a given cumulative probability of detecting the species at a site, incorporating weights to reflect the sensitivity of the results to a surveyor's priorities. The optimisation showed that placing high weight on minimising volume necessitates impractical replication, whereas placing high weight on minimising replication requires searching very large hummocks which are less common and may be vital for H. millewae. While destructive sampling methods are sometimes necessary, surveyors must be conscious of the ecological impacts of these methods. This study provides a

  14. The Spatial Fay-Herriot Model in Poverty Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wawrowski Łukasz

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Counteracting poverty is one of the objectives of the European Commission clearly emphasized in the Europe 2020 strategy. Conducting appropriate social policy requires knowledge of the extent of this phenomenon. Such information is provided through surveys on living conditions conducted by, among others, the Central Statistical Office (CSO. Nevertheless, the sample size in these surveys allows for a precise estimation of poverty rate only at a very general level - the whole country and regions. Small sample size at the lower level of spatial aggregation results in a large variance of obtained estimates and hence lower reliability. To obtain information in sparsely represented territorial sections, methods of small area estimation are used. Through using the information from other sources, such as censuses and administrative registers, it is possible to estimate distribution parameters with smaller variance than in the case of direct estimation.

  15. Mass Functions of the Active Black Holes in Distant Quasars from the Large Bright Quasar Survey, the Bright Quasar Survey, and the Color-Selected Sample of the SDSS Fall Equatorial Stripe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Marianne; Osmer, Patrick S.

    2009-01-01

    We present mass functions of distant actively accreting supermassive black holes residing in luminous quasars discovered in the Large Bright Quasar Survey, the Bright Quasar Survey, and the Fall Equatorial Stripe of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The quasars cover a wide range of redshifts (0...... functions at similar redshifts based on the SDSS Data Release 3 quasar catalog presented by Vestergaard et al. We see clear evidence of cosmic downsizing in the comoving space density distribution of active black holes in the LBQS sample alone. In forthcoming papers, further analysis, comparison......, and discussion of these mass functions will be made with other existing black hole mass functions, notably that based on the SDSS DR3 quasar catalog. We present the relationships used to estimate the black hole mass based on the MgII emission line; the relations are calibrated to the Hbeta and CIV relations...

  16. The impact of fecal sample processing on prevalence estimates for antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omulo, Sylvia; Lofgren, Eric T; Mugoh, Maina; Alando, Moshe; Obiya, Joshua; Kipyegon, Korir; Kikwai, Gilbert; Gumbi, Wilson; Kariuki, Samuel; Call, Douglas R

    2017-05-01

    Investigators often rely on studies of Escherichia coli to characterize the burden of antibiotic resistance in a clinical or community setting. To determine if prevalence estimates for antibiotic resistance are sensitive to sample handling and interpretive criteria, we collected presumptive E. coli isolates (24 or 95 per stool sample) from a community in an urban informal settlement in Kenya. Isolates were tested for susceptibility to nine antibiotics using agar breakpoint assays and results were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We observed a 0.1). Prevalence estimates did not differ for five distinct E. coli colony morphologies on MacConkey agar plates (P>0.2). Successive re-plating of samples for up to five consecutive days had little to no impact on prevalence estimates. Finally, culturing E. coli under different conditions (with 5% CO 2 or micro-aerobic) did not affect estimates of prevalence. For the conditions tested in these experiments, minor modifications in sample processing protocols are unlikely to bias estimates of the prevalence of antibiotic-resistance for fecal E. coli. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimates of laboratory accuracy and precision on Hanford waste tank samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodd, D.A.

    1995-01-01

    A review was performed on three sets of analyses generated in Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories and three sets generated by Westinghouse Hanford Company, 222-S Analytical Laboratory. Laboratory accuracy and precision was estimated by analyte and is reported in tables. The sources used to generate this estimate is of limited size but does include the physical forms, liquid and solid, which are representative of samples from tanks to be characterized. This estimate was published as an aid to programs developing data quality objectives in which specified limits are established. Data resulting from routine analyses of waste matrices can be expected to be bounded by the precision and accuracy estimates of the tables. These tables do not preclude or discourage direct negotiations between program and laboratory personnel while establishing bounding conditions. Programmatic requirements different than those listed may be reliably met on specific measurements and matrices. It should be recognized, however, that these are specific to waste tank matrices and may not be indicative of performance on samples from other sources

  18. Address-based versus random-digit-dial surveys: comparison of key health and risk indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Link, Michael W; Battaglia, Michael P; Frankel, Martin R; Osborn, Larry; Mokdad, Ali H

    2006-11-15

    Use of random-digit dialing (RDD) for conducting health surveys is increasingly problematic because of declining participation rates and eroding frame coverage. Alternative survey modes and sampling frames may improve response rates and increase the validity of survey estimates. In a 2005 pilot study conducted in six states as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the authors administered a mail survey to selected household members sampled from addresses in a US Postal Service database. The authors compared estimates based on data from the completed mail surveys (n = 3,010) with those from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System telephone surveys (n = 18,780). The mail survey data appeared reasonably complete, and estimates based on data from the two survey modes were largely equivalent. Differences found, such as differences in the estimated prevalences of binge drinking (mail = 20.3%, telephone = 13.1%) or behaviors linked to human immunodeficiency virus transmission (mail = 7.1%, telephone = 4.2%), were consistent with previous research showing that, for questions about sensitive behaviors, self-administered surveys generally produce higher estimates than interviewer-administered surveys. The mail survey also provided access to cell-phone-only households and households without telephones, which cannot be reached by means of standard RDD surveys.

  19. Ochratoxin A in raisins and currants: basic extraction procedure used in two small marketing surveys of the occurrence and control of the heterogeneity of the toxins in samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, T E; Nyberg, M

    2003-11-01

    A basic extraction procedure for analysis of ochratoxin A (OTA) in currants and raisins is described, as well as the occurrence of OTA and a control of heterogeneity of the toxin in samples bought for two small marketing surveys 1999/2000 and 2001/02. Most samples in the surveys were divided into two subsamples that were individually prepared as slurries and analysed separately. The limit of quantification for the method was estimated as 0.1 microg kg(-1) and recoveries of 85, 90 and 115% were achieved in recovery experiments at 10, 5 and 0.1 microg kg(-1), respectively. Of all 118 subsamples analysed in the surveys, 96 (84%) contained ochratoxin A at levels above the quantification level and five samples (4%) contained more than the European Community legislation of 10 microg kg(-1). The OTA concentrations found in the first survey were in the range Big differences were often achieved between individual subsamples of the original sample, which indicate a wide heterogeneous distribution of the toxin. Data from the repeatability test as well as recovery experiments from the same slurries showed that preparation of slurries as described here seemed to give a homogeneous and representative sample. The extraction with the basic sodium bicarbonate-methanol mixture used in the surveys gave similar or somewhat higher OTA values on some samples tested in a comparison with a weak phosphoric acid water-methanol extraction mixture.

  20. A Probabilistic Mass Estimation Algorithm for a Novel 7- Channel Capacitive Sample Verification Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Michael

    2012-01-01

    A document describes an algorithm created to estimate the mass placed on a sample verification sensor (SVS) designed for lunar or planetary robotic sample return missions. A novel SVS measures the capacitance between a rigid bottom plate and an elastic top membrane in seven locations. As additional sample material (soil and/or small rocks) is placed on the top membrane, the deformation of the membrane increases the capacitance. The mass estimation algorithm addresses both the calibration of each SVS channel, and also addresses how to combine the capacitances read from each of the seven channels into a single mass estimate. The probabilistic approach combines the channels according to the variance observed during the training phase, and provides not only the mass estimate, but also a value for the certainty of the estimate. SVS capacitance data is collected for known masses under a wide variety of possible loading scenarios, though in all cases, the distribution of sample within the canister is expected to be approximately uniform. A capacitance-vs-mass curve is fitted to this data, and is subsequently used to determine the mass estimate for the single channel s capacitance reading during the measurement phase. This results in seven different mass estimates, one for each SVS channel. Moreover, the variance of the calibration data is used to place a Gaussian probability distribution function (pdf) around this mass estimate. To blend these seven estimates, the seven pdfs are combined into a single Gaussian distribution function, providing the final mean and variance of the estimate. This blending technique essentially takes the final estimate as an average of the estimates of the seven channels, weighted by the inverse of the channel s variance.

  1. Estimation of tritium activity in bioassay samples having chemiluminescence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dwivedi, R.K.; Manu, Kumar; Kumar, Vinay; Soni, Ashish; Kaushik, A.K.; Tiwari, S.K.; Gupta, Ashok

    2008-01-01

    Tritium is recognized as major internal dose contributor in PHWR type of reactors. Estimation of internal dose due to tritium is carried out by analyzing urine samples in liquid scintillation analyzer (LSA). Presence of residual biochemical species in urine samples of some individuals under medical administration shows significant amount of chemiluminescence. If appropriate care is not taken the results obtained by liquid scintillation counter may be mistaken as genuine uptake of tritium. The distillation method described in this paper is used at RAPS-3 and 4 to assess correct tritium uptake. (author)

  2. Research Note Pilot survey to assess sample size for herbaceous ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A pilot survey to determine sub-sample size (number of point observations per plot) for herbaceous species composition assessments, using a wheel-point apparatus applying the nearest-plant method, was conducted. Three plots differing in species composition on the Zululand coastal plain were selected, and on each plot ...

  3. Sampling of systematic errors to estimate likelihood weights in nuclear data uncertainty propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.; Koning, A.J.; Rydén, J.; Rochman, D.; Alhassan, E.; Pomp, S.

    2016-01-01

    In methodologies for nuclear data (ND) uncertainty assessment and propagation based on random sampling, likelihood weights can be used to infer experimental information into the distributions for the ND. As the included number of correlated experimental points grows large, the computational time for the matrix inversion involved in obtaining the likelihood can become a practical problem. There are also other problems related to the conventional computation of the likelihood, e.g., the assumption that all experimental uncertainties are Gaussian. In this study, a way to estimate the likelihood which avoids matrix inversion is investigated; instead, the experimental correlations are included by sampling of systematic errors. It is shown that the model underlying the sampling methodology (using univariate normal distributions for random and systematic errors) implies a multivariate Gaussian for the experimental points (i.e., the conventional model). It is also shown that the likelihood estimates obtained through sampling of systematic errors approach the likelihood obtained with matrix inversion as the sample size for the systematic errors grows large. In studied practical cases, it is seen that the estimates for the likelihood weights converge impractically slowly with the sample size, compared to matrix inversion. The computational time is estimated to be greater than for matrix inversion in cases with more experimental points, too. Hence, the sampling of systematic errors has little potential to compete with matrix inversion in cases where the latter is applicable. Nevertheless, the underlying model and the likelihood estimates can be easier to intuitively interpret than the conventional model and the likelihood function involving the inverted covariance matrix. Therefore, this work can both have pedagogical value and be used to help motivating the conventional assumption of a multivariate Gaussian for experimental data. The sampling of systematic errors could also

  4. Satellite-aided survey sampling and implementation in low- and middle-income contexts: a low-cost/low-tech alternative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haenssgen, Marco J

    2015-01-01

    The increasing availability of online maps, satellite imagery, and digital technology can ease common constraints of survey sampling in low- and middle-income countries. However, existing approaches require specialised software and user skills, professional GPS equipment, and/or commercial data sources; they tend to neglect spatial sampling considerations when using satellite maps; and they continue to face implementation challenges analogous to conventional survey implementation methods. This paper presents an alternative way of utilising satellite maps and digital aides that aims to address these challenges. The case studies of two rural household surveys in Rajasthan (India) and Gansu (China) compare conventional survey sampling and implementation techniques with the use of online map services such as Google, Bing, and HERE maps. Modern yet basic digital technology can be integrated into the processes of preparing, implementing, and monitoring a rural household survey. Satellite-aided systematic random sampling enhanced the spatial representativeness of the village samples and entailed savings of approximately £4000 compared to conventional household listing, while reducing the duration of the main survey by at least 25 %. This low-cost/low-tech satellite-aided survey sampling approach can be useful for student researchers and resource-constrained research projects operating in low- and middle-income contexts with high survey implementation costs. While achieving transparent and efficient survey implementation at low costs, researchers aiming to adopt a similar process should be aware of the locational, technical, and logistical requirements as well as the methodological challenges of this strategy.

  5. Identification and estimation of nonlinear models using two samples with nonclassical measurement errors

    KAUST Repository

    Carroll, Raymond J.

    2010-05-01

    This paper considers identification and estimation of a general nonlinear Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model using two samples. Both samples consist of a dependent variable, some error-free covariates, and an error-prone covariate, for which the measurement error has unknown distribution and could be arbitrarily correlated with the latent true values; and neither sample contains an accurate measurement of the corresponding true variable. We assume that the regression model of interest - the conditional distribution of the dependent variable given the latent true covariate and the error-free covariates - is the same in both samples, but the distributions of the latent true covariates vary with observed error-free discrete covariates. We first show that the general latent nonlinear model is nonparametrically identified using the two samples when both could have nonclassical errors, without either instrumental variables or independence between the two samples. When the two samples are independent and the nonlinear regression model is parameterized, we propose sieve Quasi Maximum Likelihood Estimation (Q-MLE) for the parameter of interest, and establish its root-n consistency and asymptotic normality under possible misspecification, and its semiparametric efficiency under correct specification, with easily estimated standard errors. A Monte Carlo simulation and a data application are presented to show the power of the approach.

  6. A two-phase sampling design for increasing detections of rare species in occupancy surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacifici, Krishna; Dorazio, Robert M.; Dorazio, Michael J.

    2012-01-01

    1. Occupancy estimation is a commonly used tool in ecological studies owing to the ease at which data can be collected and the large spatial extent that can be covered. One major obstacle to using an occupancy-based approach is the complications associated with designing and implementing an efficient survey. These logistical challenges become magnified when working with rare species when effort can be wasted in areas with none or very few individuals. 2. Here, we develop a two-phase sampling approach that mitigates these problems by using a design that places more effort in areas with higher predicted probability of occurrence. We compare our new sampling design to traditional single-season occupancy estimation under a range of conditions and population characteristics. We develop an intuitive measure of predictive error to compare the two approaches and use simulations to assess the relative accuracy of each approach. 3. Our two-phase approach exhibited lower predictive error rates compared to the traditional single-season approach in highly spatially correlated environments. The difference was greatest when detection probability was high (0·75) regardless of the habitat or sample size. When the true occupancy rate was below 0·4 (0·05-0·4), we found that allocating 25% of the sample to the first phase resulted in the lowest error rates. 4. In the majority of scenarios, the two-phase approach showed lower error rates compared to the traditional single-season approach suggesting our new approach is fairly robust to a broad range of conditions and design factors and merits use under a wide variety of settings. 5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation and management of rare species are a challenging task facing natural resource managers. It is critical for studies involving rare species to efficiently allocate effort and resources as they are usually of a finite nature. We believe our approach provides a framework for optimal allocation of effort while

  7. Estimating recreational harvest using interview-based recall survey: Implication of recalling in weight or numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sparrevohn, Claus Reedtz

    2013-01-01

    on interviewed-based surveys where fishers are asked to recall harvest within a given timeframe. However, the importance of whether fishers are requested to provide figures in weight or number is unresolved. Therefore, a recall survey aiming at estimating recreational harvest was designed, such that respondents...... could report harvest using either weight or numbers. It was found that: (1) a preference for reporting in numbers dominated; (2) reported mean individual weight of fish caught, differed between units preferences; and (3) when an estimate of total harvest in weight are calculated, these difference could...

  8. The estimation of local marine dispersion of radionuclides from hydrographic survey data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maul, P.R.

    1985-05-01

    One of the most important stages in the assessment of the radiological impact of routine discharges of activity to the sea is the estimation of the local dispersion characteristics. Existing methods for defining the parameters required by the computer program CODAR2 are expanded to take into account the significance of the turbulence generated by the discharge, the effect of a shelving sea bed and the variation with time of the lateral dispersion coefficient. These methods also enable the importance of the timing of discharges and the variation of radionuclide concentrations along the coast to be considered. Calculations of local marine dispersion depend directly upon the information that is available from hydrographic surveys. Detailed consideration is given to the definition of model parameter values from data that are generally available from such surveys. The uncertainties involved in mathematical modelling and parameter specification suggest that the long term average radionuclide concentration in the vicinity of the release can be estimated to within a factor of 2 or 3, with estimates more likely to be greater than, rather than less than the actual value. This uncertainty will contribute to the net uncertainty in any radiological assessment of critical group exposure. (author)

  9. Estimating family planning coverage from contraceptive prevalence using national household surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barros, Aluisio J D; Boerma, Ties; Hosseinpoor, Ahmad R; Restrepo-Méndez, María C; Wong, Kerry L M; Victora, Cesar G

    2015-01-01

    Contraception is one of the most important health interventions currently available and yet, many women and couples still do not have reliable access to modern contraceptives. The best indicator for monitoring family planning is the proportion of women using contraception among those who need it. This indicator is frequently called demand for family planning satisfied and we argue that it should be called family planning coverage (FPC). This indicator is complex to calculate and requires a considerable number of questions to be included in a household survey. We propose a model that can predict FPC from a much simpler indicator - contraceptive use prevalence - for situations where it cannot be derived directly. Using 197 Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys from 82 countries, we explored least-squares regression models that could be used to predict FPC. Non-linearity was expected in this situation and we used a fractional polynomial approach to find the best fitting model. We also explored the effect of calendar time and of wealth on the models explored. Given the high correlation between the variables involved in FPC, we managed to derive a relatively simple model that depends only on contraceptive use prevalence but explains 95% of the variability of the outcome, with high precision for the estimated regression line. We also show that the relationship between the two variables has not changed with time. A concordance analysis showed agreement between observed and fitted results within a range of ±9 percentage points. We show that it is possible to obtain fairly good estimates of FPC using only contraceptive prevalence as a predictor, a strategy that is useful in situations where it is not possible to estimate FPC directly.

  10. Uncertainties estimation in surveying measurands: application to lengths, perimeters and areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covián, E.; Puente, V.; Casero, M.

    2017-10-01

    The present paper develops a series of methods for the estimation of uncertainty when measuring certain measurands of interest in surveying practice, such as points elevation given a planimetric position within a triangle mesh, 2D and 3D lengths (including perimeters enclosures), 2D areas (horizontal surfaces) and 3D areas (natural surfaces). The basis for the proposed methodology is the law of propagation of variance-covariance, which, applied to the corresponding model for each measurand, allows calculating the resulting uncertainty from known measurement errors. The methods are tested first in a small example, with a limited number of measurement points, and then in two real-life measurements. In addition, the proposed methods have been incorporated to commercial software used in the field of surveying engineering and focused on the creation of digital terrain models. The aim of this evolution is, firstly, to comply with the guidelines of the BIPM (Bureau International des Poids et Mesures), as the international reference agency in the field of metrology, in relation to the determination and expression of uncertainty; and secondly, to improve the quality of the measurement by indicating the uncertainty associated with a given level of confidence. The conceptual and mathematical developments for the uncertainty estimation in the aforementioned cases were conducted by researchers from the AssIST group at the University of Oviedo, eventually resulting in several different mathematical algorithms implemented in the form of MATLAB code. Based on these prototypes, technicians incorporated the referred functionality to commercial software, developed in C++. As a result of this collaboration, in early 2016 a new version of this commercial software was made available, which will be the first, as far as the authors are aware, that incorporates the possibility of estimating the uncertainty for a given level of confidence when computing the aforementioned surveying

  11. Estimation of unsteady lift on a pitching airfoil from wake velocity surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaman, K. B. M. Q.; Panda, J.; Rumsey, C. L.

    1993-01-01

    The results of a joint experimental and computational study on the flowfield over a periodically pitched NACA0012 airfoil, and the resultant lift variation, are reported in this paper. The lift variation over a cycle of oscillation, and hence the lift hysteresis loop, is estimated from the velocity distribution in the wake measured or computed for successive phases of the cycle. Experimentally, the estimated lift hysteresis loops are compared with available data from the literature as well as with limited force balance measurements. Computationally, the estimated lift variations are compared with the corresponding variation obtained from the surface pressure distribution. Four analytical formulations for the lift estimation from wake surveys are considered and relative successes of the four are discussed.

  12. Reliability estimation system: its application to the nuclear geophysical sampling of ore deposits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khaykovich, I.M.; Savosin, S.I.

    1992-01-01

    The reliability estimation system accepted in the Soviet Union for sampling data in nuclear geophysics is based on unique requirements in metrology and methodology. It involves estimating characteristic errors in calibration, as well as errors in measurement and interpretation. This paper describes the methods of estimating the levels of systematic and random errors at each stage of the problem. The data of nuclear geophysics sampling are considered to be reliable if there are no statistically significant, systematic differences between ore intervals determined by this method and by geological control, or by other methods of sampling; the reliability of the latter having been verified. The difference between the random errors is statistically insignificant. The system allows one to obtain information on the parameters of ore intervals with a guaranteed random error and without systematic errors. (Author)

  13. Estimating time to pregnancy from current durations in a cross-sectional sample

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keiding, Niels; Kvist, Kajsa; Hartvig, Helle

    2002-01-01

    A new design for estimating the distribution of time to pregnancy is proposed and investigated. The design is based on recording current durations in a cross-sectional sample of women, leading to statistical problems similar to estimating renewal time distributions from backward recurrence times....

  14. Statistical Methods and Sampling Design for Estimating Step Trends in Surface-Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Robert M.

    1988-01-01

    This paper addresses two components of the problem of estimating the magnitude of step trends in surface water quality. The first is finding a robust estimator appropriate to the data characteristics expected in water-quality time series. The J. L. Hodges-E. L. Lehmann class of estimators is found to be robust in comparison to other nonparametric and moment-based estimators. A seasonal Hodges-Lehmann estimator is developed and shown to have desirable properties. Second, the effectiveness of various sampling strategies is examined using Monte Carlo simulation coupled with application of this estimator. The simulation is based on a large set of total phosphorus data from the Potomac River. To assure that the simulated records have realistic properties, the data are modeled in a multiplicative fashion incorporating flow, hysteresis, seasonal, and noise components. The results demonstrate the importance of balancing the length of the two sampling periods and balancing the number of data values between the two periods.

  15. Evaluating the performance of species richness estimators: sensitivity to sample grain size

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hortal, Joaquín; Borges, Paulo A. V.; Gaspar, Clara

    2006-01-01

    and several recent estimators [proposed by Rosenzweig et al. (Conservation Biology, 2003, 17, 864-874), and Ugland et al. (Journal of Animal Ecology, 2003, 72, 888-897)] performed poorly. 3.  Estimations developed using the smaller grain sizes (pair of traps, traps, records and individuals) presented similar....... Data obtained with standardized sampling of 78 transects in natural forest remnants of five islands were aggregated in seven different grains (i.e. ways of defining a single sample): islands, natural areas, transects, pairs of traps, traps, database records and individuals to assess the effect of using...

  16. Bayesian Estimation of Fish Disease Prevalence from Pooled Samples Incorporating Sensitivity and Specificity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Christopher J.; Moffitt, Christine M.

    2003-03-01

    An important emerging issue in fisheries biology is the health of free-ranging populations of fish, particularly with respect to the prevalence of certain pathogens. For many years, pathologists focused on captive populations and interest was in the presence or absence of certain pathogens, so it was economically attractive to test pooled samples of fish. Recently, investigators have begun to study individual fish prevalence from pooled samples. Estimation of disease prevalence from pooled samples is straightforward when assay sensitivity and specificity are perfect, but this assumption is unrealistic. Here we illustrate the use of a Bayesian approach for estimating disease prevalence from pooled samples when sensitivity and specificity are not perfect. We also focus on diagnostic plots to monitor the convergence of the Gibbs-sampling-based Bayesian analysis. The methods are illustrated with a sample data set.

  17. Porosity estimation by semi-supervised learning with sparsely available labeled samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Luiz Alberto; Görnitz, Nico; Varella, Luiz Eduardo; Vellasco, Marley; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Nakajima, Shinichi

    2017-09-01

    This paper addresses the porosity estimation problem from seismic impedance volumes and porosity samples located in a small group of exploratory wells. Regression methods, trained on the impedance as inputs and the porosity as output labels, generally suffer from extremely expensive (and hence sparsely available) porosity samples. To optimally make use of the valuable porosity data, a semi-supervised machine learning method was proposed, Transductive Conditional Random Field Regression (TCRFR), showing good performance (Görnitz et al., 2017). TCRFR, however, still requires more labeled data than those usually available, which creates a gap when applying the method to the porosity estimation problem in realistic situations. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by introducing two graph-based preprocessing techniques, which adapt the original TCRFR for extremely weakly supervised scenarios. Our new method outperforms the previous automatic estimation methods on synthetic data and provides a comparable result to the manual labored, time-consuming geostatistics approach on real data, proving its potential as a practical industrial tool.

  18. Comparison of methods used for estimating pharmacist counseling behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schommer, J C; Sullivan, D L; Wiederholt, J B

    1994-01-01

    To compare the rates reported for provision of types of information conveyed by pharmacists among studies for which different methods of estimation were used and different dispensing situations were studied. Empiric studies conducted in the US, reported from 1982 through 1992, were selected from International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, MEDLINE, and noncomputerized sources. Empiric studies were selected for review if they reported the provision of at least three types of counseling information. Four components of methods used for estimating pharmacist counseling behaviors were extracted and summarized in a table: (1) sample type and area, (2) sampling unit, (3) sample size, and (4) data collection method. In addition, situations that were investigated in each study were compiled. Twelve studies met our inclusion criteria. Patients were interviewed via telephone in four studies and were surveyed via mail in two studies. Pharmacists were interviewed via telephone in one study and surveyed via mail in two studies. For three studies, researchers visited pharmacy sites for data collection using the shopper method or observation method. Studies with similar methods and situations provided similar results. Data collected by using patient surveys, pharmacist surveys, and observation methods can provide useful estimations of pharmacist counseling behaviors if researchers measure counseling for specific, well-defined dispensing situations.

  19. Mortality and kidnapping estimates for the Yazidi population in the area of Mount Sinjar, Iraq, in August 2014: A retrospective household survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cetorelli, Valeria; Sasson, Isaac; Shabila, Nazar; Burnham, Gilbert

    2017-05-01

    In August 2014, the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) attacked the Yazidi religious minority living in the area of Mount Sinjar in Nineveh governorate, Iraq. We conducted a retrospective household survey to estimate the number and demographic profile of Yazidis killed and kidnapped. The survey covered the displaced Yazidi population from Sinjar residing in camps in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Fieldwork took place between 4 November and 25 December, 2015. A systematic random sample of 1,300 in-camp households were interviewed about the current household composition and any killings and kidnappings of household members by ISIS. Of the 1,300 interviewed households, 988 were Yazidi from Sinjar. Yazidi households contained 6,572 living residents at the time of the survey; 43 killings and 83 kidnappings of household members were reported. We calculated the probability of being killed and kidnapped by dividing the number of reported killings and kidnappings by the number of sampled Yazidis at risk, adjusting for sampling design. To obtain the overall toll of killings and kidnappings, those probabilities were multiplied by the total Yazidi population living in Sinjar at the time of the ISIS attack, estimated at roughly 400,000 by the United Nations and Kurdish officials. The demographic profile of those killed and kidnapped was examined, distinguishing between children and adults and females and males. We estimated that 2.5% of the Yazidi population was either killed or kidnapped over the course of a few days in August 2014, amounting to 9,900 (95% CI 7,000-13,900) people in total. An estimated 3,100 (95% CI 2,100-4,400) Yazidis were killed, with nearly half of them executed-either shot, beheaded, or burned alive-while the rest died on Mount Sinjar from starvation, dehydration, or injuries during the ISIS siege. The estimated number kidnapped is 6,800 (95% CI 4,200-10,800). Escapees recounted the abuses they had suffered, including forced religious

  20. Mortality and kidnapping estimates for the Yazidi population in the area of Mount Sinjar, Iraq, in August 2014: A retrospective household survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeria Cetorelli

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In August 2014, the so-called Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS attacked the Yazidi religious minority living in the area of Mount Sinjar in Nineveh governorate, Iraq. We conducted a retrospective household survey to estimate the number and demographic profile of Yazidis killed and kidnapped.The survey covered the displaced Yazidi population from Sinjar residing in camps in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Fieldwork took place between 4 November and 25 December, 2015. A systematic random sample of 1,300 in-camp households were interviewed about the current household composition and any killings and kidnappings of household members by ISIS. Of the 1,300 interviewed households, 988 were Yazidi from Sinjar. Yazidi households contained 6,572 living residents at the time of the survey; 43 killings and 83 kidnappings of household members were reported. We calculated the probability of being killed and kidnapped by dividing the number of reported killings and kidnappings by the number of sampled Yazidis at risk, adjusting for sampling design. To obtain the overall toll of killings and kidnappings, those probabilities were multiplied by the total Yazidi population living in Sinjar at the time of the ISIS attack, estimated at roughly 400,000 by the United Nations and Kurdish officials. The demographic profile of those killed and kidnapped was examined, distinguishing between children and adults and females and males. We estimated that 2.5% of the Yazidi population was either killed or kidnapped over the course of a few days in August 2014, amounting to 9,900 (95% CI 7,000-13,900 people in total. An estimated 3,100 (95% CI 2,100-4,400 Yazidis were killed, with nearly half of them executed-either shot, beheaded, or burned alive-while the rest died on Mount Sinjar from starvation, dehydration, or injuries during the ISIS siege. The estimated number kidnapped is 6,800 (95% CI 4,200-10,800. Escapees recounted the abuses they had suffered, including forced

  1. Comparison of chlorzoxazone one-sample methods to estimate CYP2E1 activity in humans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kramer, Iza; Dalhoff, Kim; Clemmesen, Jens O

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Comparison of a one-sample with a multi-sample method (the metabolic fractional clearance) to estimate CYP2E1 activity in humans. METHODS: Healthy, male Caucasians ( n=19) were included. The multi-sample fractional clearance (Cl(fe)) of chlorzoxazone was compared with one...... estimates, Cl(est) at 3 h or 6 h, and MR at 3 h, can serve as reliable markers of CYP2E1 activity. The one-sample clearance method is an accurate, renal function-independent measure of the intrinsic activity; it is simple to use and easily applicable to humans.......-time-point clearance estimation (Cl(est)) at 3, 4, 5 and 6 h. Furthermore, the metabolite/drug ratios (MRs) estimated from one-time-point samples at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 h were compared with Cl(fe). RESULTS: The concordance between Cl(est) and Cl(fe) was highest at 6 h. The minimal mean prediction error (MPE) of Cl...

  2. Estimation of Uncertainty in Aerosol Concentration Measured by Aerosol Sampling System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jong Chan; Song, Yong Jae; Jung, Woo Young; Lee, Hyun Chul; Kim, Gyu Tae; Lee, Doo Yong [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    FNC Technology Co., Ltd has been developed test facilities for the aerosol generation, mixing, sampling and measurement under high pressure and high temperature conditions. The aerosol generation system is connected to the aerosol mixing system which injects SiO{sub 2}/ethanol mixture. In the sampling system, glass fiber membrane filter has been used to measure average mass concentration. Based on the experimental results using main carrier gas of steam and air mixture, the uncertainty estimation of the sampled aerosol concentration was performed by applying Gaussian error propagation law. FNC Technology Co., Ltd. has been developed the experimental facilities for the aerosol measurement under high pressure and high temperature. The purpose of the tests is to develop commercial test module for aerosol generation, mixing and sampling system applicable to environmental industry and safety related system in nuclear power plant. For the uncertainty calculation of aerosol concentration, the value of the sampled aerosol concentration is not measured directly, but must be calculated from other quantities. The uncertainty of the sampled aerosol concentration is a function of flow rates of air and steam, sampled mass, sampling time, condensed steam mass and its absolute errors. These variables propagate to the combination of variables in the function. Using operating parameters and its single errors from the aerosol test cases performed at FNC, the uncertainty of aerosol concentration evaluated by Gaussian error propagation law is less than 1%. The results of uncertainty estimation in the aerosol sampling system will be utilized for the system performance data.

  3. Feasibility online survey to estimate physical activity level among the students studying professional courses: a cross-sectional online survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudha, Bhumika; Samuel, Asir John; Narkeesh, Kanimozhi

    2018-02-01

    The aim of the study was to estimate the physical activity (PA) level among the professional college students in North India. One hundred three professional college students in the age group of 18-25 years were recruited by simple random sampling for this cross-sectional online survey. The survey was advertised on the social networking sites (Facebook, WhatsApp) through a link www.surveymonkey.com/r/MG-588BY. A Short Form of International Physical Activity Questionnaire was used for this survey study. The questionnaire included total 8 questions on the basis of previous 7 days. The questionnaire consists of 3 main categories which were vigorous, moderate and high PA. Time spent in each activity level was multiplied with the metabolic equivalent of task (MET), which has previously set to 8.0 for vigorous activity, 4.0 for moderate activity, 3.3 for walking, and 1.5 for sitting. By multiplying MET with number of days and minutes performed weekly, amount of each activity level was calculated and measured as MET-min/wk. Further by adding MET minutes for each activity level, total MET-min/wk was calculated. Total number of 100 students participated in this study, and it was shown that all professional course students show different levels in PA. The total PA level among professional college students, which includes, physiotherapy, dental, medical, nursing, lab technician, pharmacy, management, law, engineering, were 434.4 (0-7,866), 170.3 (0-1,129), 87.7 (0-445), 102.8 (0-180), 469 (0-1,164), 0 (0-0), 645 (0-1,836), 337 (0-1,890), 396 (0-968) MET-min/wk respectively. PA levels among professional college students in North India have been established.

  4. Conducting a respondent-driven sampling survey with the use of existing resources in Sydney, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquette, Dana M; Bryant, Joanne; Crawford, Sione; de Wit, John B F

    2011-07-01

    Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a form of chain-referral sampling that is increasingly being used for HIV behavioural surveillance. When used for surveillance purposes, a sampling method should be relatively inexpensive and simple to operate. This study examined whether an RDS survey of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Sydney, Australia, could be successfully conducted through the use of minimal and existing resources. The RDS survey was conducted on the premises of a local needle and syringe program (NSP) with some adjustments to take into account the constraints of existing resources. The impact of the survey on clients and on staff was examined by summarizing NSP service data and by conducting post-survey discussions with NSP staff. From November 2009 till March 2010, 261 participants were recruited in 16 waves. A significant increase was found in the number of services provided by the NSP during and after data collection. Generally, staff felt that the survey had a positive impact by exposing a broader group of people to the NSP. However, conducting the survey may have led to privacy issues for NSP clients due to an increased number of people gathering around the NSP. This study shows that RDS can be conducted with the use of minimal and existing resources under certain conditions (e.g., use of a self-administered questionnaire and no biological samples taken). A more detailed cost-utility analysis is needed to determine whether RDS' advantages outweigh potential challenges when compared to simpler and less costly convenience methods. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Limited sampling hampers "big data" estimation of species richness in a tropical biodiversity hotspot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engemann, Kristine; Enquist, Brian J; Sandel, Brody; Boyle, Brad; Jørgensen, Peter M; Morueta-Holme, Naia; Peet, Robert K; Violle, Cyrille; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2015-02-01

    Macro-scale species richness studies often use museum specimens as their main source of information. However, such datasets are often strongly biased due to variation in sampling effort in space and time. These biases may strongly affect diversity estimates and may, thereby, obstruct solid inference on the underlying diversity drivers, as well as mislead conservation prioritization. In recent years, this has resulted in an increased focus on developing methods to correct for sampling bias. In this study, we use sample-size-correcting methods to examine patterns of tropical plant diversity in Ecuador, one of the most species-rich and climatically heterogeneous biodiversity hotspots. Species richness estimates were calculated based on 205,735 georeferenced specimens of 15,788 species using the Margalef diversity index, the Chao estimator, the second-order Jackknife and Bootstrapping resampling methods, and Hill numbers and rarefaction. Species richness was heavily correlated with sampling effort, and only rarefaction was able to remove this effect, and we recommend this method for estimation of species richness with "big data" collections.

  6. A survey on OFDM channel estimation techniques based on denoising strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pallaviram Sure

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Channel estimation forms the heart of any orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM based wireless communication receiver. Frequency domain pilot aided channel estimation techniques are either least squares (LS based or minimum mean square error (MMSE based. LS based techniques are computationally less complex. Unlike MMSE ones, they do not require a priori knowledge of channel statistics (KCS. However, the mean square error (MSE performance of the channel estimator incorporating MMSE based techniques is better compared to that obtained with the incorporation of LS based techniques. To enhance the MSE performance using LS based techniques, a variety of denoising strategies have been developed in the literature, which are applied on the LS estimated channel impulse response (CIR. The advantage of denoising threshold based LS techniques is that, they do not require KCS but still render near optimal MMSE performance similar to MMSE based techniques. In this paper, a detailed survey on various existing denoising strategies, with a comparative discussion of these strategies is presented.

  7. Beamforming using subspace estimation from a diagonally averaged sample covariance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quijano, Jorge E; Zurk, Lisa M

    2017-08-01

    The potential benefit of a large-aperture sonar array for high resolution target localization is often challenged by the lack of sufficient data required for adaptive beamforming. This paper introduces a Toeplitz-constrained estimator of the clairvoyant signal covariance matrix corresponding to multiple far-field targets embedded in background isotropic noise. The estimator is obtained by averaging along subdiagonals of the sample covariance matrix, followed by covariance extrapolation using the method of maximum entropy. The sample covariance is computed from limited data snapshots, a situation commonly encountered with large-aperture arrays in environments characterized by short periods of local stationarity. Eigenvectors computed from the Toeplitz-constrained covariance are used to construct signal-subspace projector matrices, which are shown to reduce background noise and improve detection of closely spaced targets when applied to subspace beamforming. Monte Carlo simulations corresponding to increasing array aperture suggest convergence of the proposed projector to the clairvoyant signal projector, thereby outperforming the classic projector obtained from the sample eigenvectors. Beamforming performance of the proposed method is analyzed using simulated data, as well as experimental data from the Shallow Water Array Performance experiment.

  8. The effects of parameter estimation on minimizing the in-control average sample size for the double sampling X bar chart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael B.C. Khoo

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The double sampling (DS X bar chart, one of the most widely-used charting methods, is superior for detecting small and moderate shifts in the process mean. In a right skewed run length distribution, the median run length (MRL provides a more credible representation of the central tendency than the average run length (ARL, as the mean is greater than the median. In this paper, therefore, MRL is used as the performance criterion instead of the traditional ARL. Generally, the performance of the DS X bar chart is investigated under the assumption of known process parameters. In practice, these parameters are usually estimated from an in-control reference Phase-I dataset. Since the performance of the DS X bar chart is significantly affected by estimation errors, we study the effects of parameter estimation on the MRL-based DS X bar chart when the in-control average sample size is minimised. This study reveals that more than 80 samples are required for the MRL-based DS X bar chart with estimated parameters to perform more favourably than the corresponding chart with known parameters.

  9. Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laufenberg, Jared S.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (pA and pB, respectively, or p, collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability

  10. An employee total health management-based survey of Iowa employers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, James A; Lind, David P; Kelly, Kevin M; Hall, Jennifer L

    2013-12-01

    To implement an Employee Total Health Management (ETHM) model-based questionnaire and provide estimates of model program elements among a statewide sample of Iowa employers. Survey a stratified random sample of Iowa employers, and characterize and estimate employer participation in ETHM program elements. Iowa employers are implementing less than 30% of all 12 components of ETHM, with the exception of occupational safety and health (46.6%) and workers' compensation insurance coverage (89.2%), but intend modest expansion of all components in the coming year. The ETHM questionnaire-based survey provides estimates of progress Iowa employers are making toward implementing components of Total Worker Health programs.

  11. An assessment of Lot Quality Assurance Sampling to evaluate malaria outcome indicators: extending malaria indicator surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biedron, Caitlin; Pagano, Marcello; Hedt, Bethany L; Kilian, Albert; Ratcliffe, Amy; Mabunda, Samuel; Valadez, Joseph J

    2010-02-01

    Large investments and increased global prioritization of malaria prevention and treatment have resulted in greater emphasis on programme monitoring and evaluation (M&E) in many countries. Many countries currently use large multistage cluster sample surveys to monitor malaria outcome indicators on a regional and national level. However, these surveys often mask local-level variability important to programme management. Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) has played a valuable role for local-level programme M&E. If incorporated into these larger surveys, it would provide a comprehensive M&E plan at little, if any, extra cost. The Mozambique Ministry of Health conducted a Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) in June and July 2007. We applied LQAS classification rules to the 345 sampled enumeration areas to demonstrate identifying high- and low-performing areas with respect to two malaria program indicators-'household possession of any bednet' and 'household possession of any insecticide-treated bednet (ITN)'. As shown by the MIS, no province in Mozambique achieved the 70% coverage target for household possession of bednets or ITNs. By applying LQAS classification rules to the data, we identify 266 of the 345 enumeration areas as having bednet coverage severely below the 70% target. An additional 73 were identified with low ITN coverage. This article demonstrates the feasibility of integrating LQAS into multistage cluster sampling surveys and using these results to support a comprehensive national, regional and local programme M&E system. Furthermore, in the recommendations we outlined how to integrate the Large Country-LQAS design into macro-surveys while still obtaining results available through current sampling practices.

  12. A comparison of dietary estimates from the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Survey to food and beverage purchase data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMahon, Emma; Wycherley, Thomas; O'Dea, Kerin; Brimblecombe, Julie

    2017-12-01

    We compared self-reported dietary intake from the very remote sample of the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey (VR-NATSINPAS; n=1,363) to one year of food and beverage purchases from 20 very remote Indigenous Australian communities (servicing ∼8,500 individuals). Differences in food (% energy from food groups) and nutrients were analysed using t-test with unequal variance. Per-capita energy estimates were not significantly different between the surveys (899 MJ/person/day [95% confidence interval -152,1950] p=0.094). Self-reported intakes of sugar, cereal products/dishes, beverages, fats/oils, milk products/dishes and confectionery were significantly lower than that purchased, while intakes of meat, vegetables, cereal-based dishes, fish, fruit and eggs were significantly higher (pfood and nutrient availability in this population longitudinally; however, further evidence is needed on approaches to estimate wastage and foods sourced outside the store. There is potential for these data to complement each other to inform nutrition policies and programs in this population. © 2017 Menzies School of Health Research.

  13. A study on the representative sampling survey for the inspection of the clearance level for the radioisotope waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong Joo Ahn; Se Chul Sohn; Kwang Yong Jee; Ju Youl Kim; In Koo Lee

    2007-01-01

    Utilization facilities for radioisotope (RI) are increasing annually in South Korea, and the total number was 2,723, as of December 31, 2005. The inspection of a clearance level is a very important problem in order to ensure a social reliance for releasing radioactive materials to the environment. Korean regulations for such a clearance are described in Notice No. 2001-30 of the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) and Notice No. 2002-67 of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (MOCIE). Most unsealed sources in RI waste drums at a storage facility are low-level beta-emitters with short half-lives, so it is impossible to measure their inventories by a nondestructive analysis. Furthermore, RI wastes generated from hospital, educational and research institutes and industry have a heterogeneous, multiple, irregular, and a small quantity of a waste stream. This study addresses a representative (master) sampling survey and analysis plan for RI wastes because a complete enumeration of waste drums is impossible and not desirable in terms of a cost and efficiency. The existing approaches to a representative sampling include a judgmental, simple random, stratified random, systematic grid, systematic random, composite, and adaptive sampling. A representative sampling plan may combine two or more of the above sampling approaches depending on the type and distribution of a waste stream. Stratified random sampling (constrained randomization) is proven to be adequate for a sampling design of a RI waste regarding a half-life, surface dose, undertaking time to a storage facility, and type of waste. The developed sampling protocol includes estimating the number of drums within a waste stream, estimating the number of samples, and a confirmation of the required number of samples. The statistical process control for a quality assurance plan includes control charts and an upper control limit (UCL) of 95% to determine whether a clearance level is met or not. (authors)

  14. Sampling point selection for energy estimation in the quasicontinuum method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beex, L.A.A.; Peerlings, R.H.J.; Geers, M.G.D.

    2010-01-01

    The quasicontinuum (QC) method reduces computational costs of atomistic calculations by using interpolation between a small number of so-called repatoms to represent the displacements of the complete lattice and by selecting a small number of sampling atoms to estimate the total potential energy of

  15. Improving the accuracy of livestock distribution estimates through spatial interpolation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryssinckx, Ward; Ducheyne, Els; Muhwezi, Bernard; Godfrey, Sunday; Mintiens, Koen; Leirs, Herwig; Hendrickx, Guy

    2012-11-01

    Animal distribution maps serve many purposes such as estimating transmission risk of zoonotic pathogens to both animals and humans. The reliability and usability of such maps is highly dependent on the quality of the input data. However, decisions on how to perform livestock surveys are often based on previous work without considering possible consequences. A better understanding of the impact of using different sample designs and processing steps on the accuracy of livestock distribution estimates was acquired through iterative experiments using detailed survey. The importance of sample size, sample design and aggregation is demonstrated and spatial interpolation is presented as a potential way to improve cattle number estimates. As expected, results show that an increasing sample size increased the precision of cattle number estimates but these improvements were mainly seen when the initial sample size was relatively low (e.g. a median relative error decrease of 0.04% per sampled parish for sample sizes below 500 parishes). For higher sample sizes, the added value of further increasing the number of samples declined rapidly (e.g. a median relative error decrease of 0.01% per sampled parish for sample sizes above 500 parishes. When a two-stage stratified sample design was applied to yield more evenly distributed samples, accuracy levels were higher for low sample densities and stabilised at lower sample sizes compared to one-stage stratified sampling. Aggregating the resulting cattle number estimates yielded significantly more accurate results because of averaging under- and over-estimates (e.g. when aggregating cattle number estimates from subcounty to district level, P interpolation to fill in missing values in non-sampled areas, accuracy is improved remarkably. This counts especially for low sample sizes and spatially even distributed samples (e.g. P <0.001 for a sample of 170 parishes using one-stage stratified sampling and aggregation on district level

  16. The Impact of Survey and Response Modes on Current Smoking Prevalence Estimates Using TUS-CPS: 1992-2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Soulakova

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study identified whether survey administration mode (telephone or in-person and respondent type (self or proxy result in discrepant prevalence of current smoking in the adult U.S. population, while controlling for key sociodemographic characteristics and longitudinal changes of smoking prevalence over the 11-year period from 1992-2003. We used a multiple logistic regression analysis with replicate weights to model the current smoking status logit as a function of a number of covariates. The final model included individual- and family-level sociodemographic characteristics, survey attributes, and multiple two-way interactions of survey mode and respondent type with other covariates. The respondent type is a significant predictor of current smoking prevalence and the magnitude of the difference depends on the age, sex, and education of the person whose smoking status is being reported. Furthermore, the survey mode has significant interactions with survey year, sex, and age. We conclude that using an overall unadjusted estimate of the current smoking prevalence may result in underestimating the current smoking rate when conducting proxy or telephone interviews especially for some sub-populations, such as young adults. We propose that estimates could be improved if more detailed information regarding the respondent type and survey administration mode characteristics were considered in addition to commonly used survey year and sociodemographic characteristics. This information is critical given that future surveillance is moving toward more complex designs. Thus, adjustment of estimates should be contemplated when comparing current smoking prevalence results within a given survey series with major changes in methodology over time and between different surveys using various modes and respondent types.

  17. A random sampling approach for robust estimation of tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparse data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Hui-May; Ette, Ene I

    2005-09-02

    his study was performed to develop a new nonparametric approach for the estimation of robust tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparsely sampled paired data (ie, one sample each from plasma and tissue per subject). Tissue-to-plasma ratio was estimated from paired/unpaired experimental data using independent time points approach, area under the curve (AUC) values calculated with the naïve data averaging approach, and AUC values calculated using sampling based approaches (eg, the pseudoprofile-based bootstrap [PpbB] approach and the random sampling approach [our proposed approach]). The random sampling approach involves the use of a 2-phase algorithm. The convergence of the sampling/resampling approaches was investigated, as well as the robustness of the estimates produced by different approaches. To evaluate the latter, new data sets were generated by introducing outlier(s) into the real data set. One to 2 concentration values were inflated by 10% to 40% from their original values to produce the outliers. Tissue-to-plasma ratios computed using the independent time points approach varied between 0 and 50 across time points. The ratio obtained from AUC values acquired using the naive data averaging approach was not associated with any measure of uncertainty or variability. Calculating the ratio without regard to pairing yielded poorer estimates. The random sampling and pseudoprofile-based bootstrap approaches yielded tissue-to-plasma ratios with uncertainty and variability. However, the random sampling approach, because of the 2-phase nature of its algorithm, yielded more robust estimates and required fewer replications. Therefore, a 2-phase random sampling approach is proposed for the robust estimation of tissue-to-plasma ratio from extremely sparsely sampled data.

  18. Review of Estimation Methods for Landline and Cell Phone Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcos, Antonio; del Mar Rueda, María; Trujillo, Manuel; Molina, David

    2015-01-01

    The rapid proliferation of cell phone use and the accompanying decline in landline service in recent years have resulted in substantial potential for coverage bias in landline random-digit-dial telephone surveys, which has led to the implementation of dual-frame designs that incorporate both landline and cell phone samples. Consequently,…

  19. Estimating fish swimming metrics and metabolic rates with accelerometers: the influence of sampling frequency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownscombe, J W; Lennox, R J; Danylchuk, A J; Cooke, S J

    2018-06-21

    Accelerometry is growing in popularity for remotely measuring fish swimming metrics, but appropriate sampling frequencies for accurately measuring these metrics are not well studied. This research examined the influence of sampling frequency (1-25 Hz) with tri-axial accelerometer biologgers on estimates of overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA), tail-beat frequency, swimming speed and metabolic rate of bonefish Albula vulpes in a swim-tunnel respirometer and free-swimming in a wetland mesocosm. In the swim tunnel, sampling frequencies of ≥ 5 Hz were sufficient to establish strong relationships between ODBA, swimming speed and metabolic rate. However, in free-swimming bonefish, estimates of metabolic rate were more variable below 10 Hz. Sampling frequencies should be at least twice the maximum tail-beat frequency to estimate this metric effectively, which is generally higher than those required to estimate ODBA, swimming speed and metabolic rate. While optimal sampling frequency probably varies among species due to tail-beat frequency and swimming style, this study provides a reference point with a medium body-sized sub-carangiform teleost fish, enabling researchers to measure these metrics effectively and maximize study duration. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  20. Sampling soils for 137Cs using various field-sampling volumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nyhan, J.W.; Schofield, T.G.; White, G.C.; Trujillo, G.

    1981-10-01

    The sediments from a liquid effluent receiving area at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and soils from intensive study area in the fallout pathway of Trinity were sampled for 137 Cs using 25-, 500-, 2500-, and 12 500-cm 3 field sampling volumes. A highly replicated sampling program was used to determine mean concentrations and inventories of 137 Cs at each site, as well as estimates of spatial, aliquoting, and counting variance components of the radionuclide data. The sampling methods were also analyzed as a function of soil size fractions collected in each field sampling volume and of the total cost of the program for a given variation in the radionuclide survey results. Coefficients of variation (CV) of 137 Cs inventory estimates ranged from 0.063 to 0.14 for Mortandad Canyon sediments, where CV values for Trinity soils were observed from 0.38 to 0.57. Spatial variance components of 137 Cs concentration data were usually found to be larger than either the aliquoting or counting variance estimates and were inversely related to field sampling volume at the Trinity intensive site. Subsequent optimization studies of the sampling schemes demonstrated that each aliquot should be counted once, and that only 2 to 4 aliquots out of an many as 30 collected need be assayed for 137 Cs. The optimization studies showed that as sample costs increased to 45 man-hours of labor per sample, the variance of the mean 137 Cs concentration decreased dramatically, but decreased very little with additional labor

  1. The transition to early fatherhood: National estimates based on multiple surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Elizabeth Peters

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available This study provides systematic information about the prevalence of early male fertility and the relationship between family background characteristics and early parenthood across three widely used data sources: the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth and the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth. We provide descriptive statistics on early fertility by age, sex, race, cohort, and data set. Because each data set includes birth cohorts with varying early fertility rates, prevalence estimates for early male fertility are relatively similar across data sets. Associations between background characteristics and early fertility in regression models are less consistent across data sets. We discuss the implications of these findings for scholars doing research on early male fertility.

  2. Challenges in Estimating Vaccine Coverage in Refugee and Displaced Populations: Results From Household Surveys in Jordan and Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberton, Timothy; Weiss, William; Doocy, Shannon

    2017-01-01

    Ensuring the sustained immunization of displaced persons is a key objective in humanitarian emergencies. Typically, humanitarian actors measure coverage of single vaccines following an immunization campaign; few measure routine coverage of all vaccines. We undertook household surveys of Syrian refugees in Jordan and Lebanon, outside of camps, using a mix of random and respondent-driven sampling, to measure coverage of all vaccinations included in the host country’s vaccine schedule. We analyzed the results with a critical eye to data limitations and implications for similar studies. Among households with a child aged 12–23 months, 55.1% of respondents in Jordan and 46.6% in Lebanon were able to produce the child’s EPI card. Only 24.5% of Syrian refugee children in Jordan and 12.5% in Lebanon were fully immunized through routine vaccination services (having received from non-campaign sources: measles, polio 1–3, and DPT 1–3 in Jordan and Lebanon, and BCG in Jordan). Respondents in Jordan (33.5%) and Lebanon (40.1%) reported difficulties obtaining child vaccinations. Our estimated immunization rates were lower than expected and raise serious concerns about gaps in vaccine coverage among Syrian refugees. Although our estimates likely under-represent true coverage, given the additional benefit of campaigns (not captured in our surveys), there is a clear need to increase awareness, accessibility, and uptake of immunization services. Current methods to measure vaccine coverage in refugee and displaced populations have limitations. To better understand health needs in such groups, we need research on: validity of recall methods, links between campaigns and routine immunization programs, and improved sampling of hard-to-reach populations. PMID:28805672

  3. Estimation of plant sampling uncertainty: an example based on chemical analysis of moss samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dołęgowska, Sabina

    2016-11-01

    In order to estimate the level of uncertainty arising from sampling, 54 samples (primary and duplicate) of the moss species Pleurozium schreberi (Brid.) Mitt. were collected within three forested areas (Wierna Rzeka, Piaski, Posłowice Range) in the Holy Cross Mountains (south-central Poland). During the fieldwork, each primary sample composed of 8 to 10 increments (subsamples) was taken over an area of 10 m 2 whereas duplicate samples were collected in the same way at a distance of 1-2 m. Subsequently, all samples were triple rinsed with deionized water, dried, milled, and digested (8 mL HNO 3 (1:1) + 1 mL 30 % H 2 O 2 ) in a closed microwave system Multiwave 3000. The prepared solutions were analyzed twice for Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn using FAAS and GFAAS techniques. All datasets were checked for normality and for normally distributed elements (Cu from Piaski, Zn from Posłowice, Fe, Zn from Wierna Rzeka). The sampling uncertainty was computed with (i) classical ANOVA, (ii) classical RANOVA, (iii) modified RANOVA, and (iv) range statistics. For the remaining elements, the sampling uncertainty was calculated with traditional and/or modified RANOVA (if the amount of outliers did not exceed 10 %) or classical ANOVA after Box-Cox transformation (if the amount of outliers exceeded 10 %). The highest concentrations of all elements were found in moss samples from Piaski, whereas the sampling uncertainty calculated with different statistical methods ranged from 4.1 to 22 %.

  4. Critical point relascope sampling for unbiased volume estimation of downed coarse woody debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey H. Gove; Michael S. Williams; Mark J. Ducey; Mark J. Ducey

    2005-01-01

    Critical point relascope sampling is developed and shown to be design-unbiased for the estimation of log volume when used with point relascope sampling for downed coarse woody debris. The method is closely related to critical height sampling for standing trees when trees are first sampled with a wedge prism. Three alternative protocols for determining the critical...

  5. Semiparametric efficient and robust estimation of an unknown symmetric population under arbitrary sample selection bias

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Yanyuan

    2013-09-01

    We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the center and shape of a symmetric population when a representative sample of the population is unavailable due to selection bias. We allow an arbitrary sample selection mechanism determined by the data collection procedure, and we do not impose any parametric form on the population distribution. Under this general framework, we construct a family of consistent estimators of the center that is robust to population model misspecification, and we identify the efficient member that reaches the minimum possible estimation variance. The asymptotic properties and finite sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are illustrated through theoretical analysis and simulations. A data example is also provided to illustrate the usefulness of the methods in practice. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  6. Critical length sampling: a method to estimate the volume of downed coarse woody debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    G& #246; ran St& #229; hl; Jeffrey H. Gove; Michael S. Williams; Mark J. Ducey

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, critical length sampling for estimating the volume of downed coarse woody debris is presented. Using this method, the volume of downed wood in a stand can be estimated by summing the critical lengths of down logs included in a sample obtained using a relascope or wedge prism; typically, the instrument should be tilted 90° from its usual...

  7. Impact of sampling strategy on stream load estimates in till landscape of the Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidon, P.; Hubbard, L.E.; Soyeux, E.

    2009-01-01

    Accurately estimating various solute loads in streams during storms is critical to accurately determine maximum daily loads for regulatory purposes. This study investigates the impact of sampling strategy on solute load estimates in streams in the US Midwest. Three different solute types (nitrate, magnesium, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC)) and three sampling strategies are assessed. Regardless of the method, the average error on nitrate loads is higher than for magnesium or DOC loads, and all three methods generally underestimate DOC loads and overestimate magnesium loads. Increasing sampling frequency only slightly improves the accuracy of solute load estimates but generally improves the precision of load calculations. This type of investigation is critical for water management and environmental assessment so error on solute load calculations can be taken into account by landscape managers, and sampling strategies optimized as a function of monitoring objectives. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  8. Comparison of prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis infection by sampling slaughtered cattle with macroscopic lesions vs. systematic sampling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elze, J; Liebler-Tenorio, E; Ziller, M; Köhler, H

    2013-07-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the most reliable approach for prevalence estimation of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in clinically healthy slaughtered cattle. Sampling of macroscopically suspect tissue was compared to systematic sampling. Specimens of ileum, jejunum, mesenteric and caecal lymph nodes were examined for MAP infection using bacterial microscopy, culture, histopathology and immunohistochemistry. MAP was found most frequently in caecal lymph nodes, but sampling more tissues optimized the detection rate. Examination by culture was most efficient while combination with histopathology increased the detection rate slightly. MAP was detected in 49/50 animals with macroscopic lesions representing 1.35% of the slaughtered cattle examined. Of 150 systematically sampled macroscopically non-suspect cows, 28.7% were infected with MAP. This indicates that the majority of MAP-positive cattle are slaughtered without evidence of macroscopic lesions and before clinical signs occur. For reliable prevalence estimation of MAP infection in slaughtered cattle, systematic random sampling is essential.

  9. The Meth Project and Teen Meth Use: New Estimates from the National and State Youth Risk Behavior Surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D Mark; Elsea, David

    2015-12-01

    In this note, we use data from the national and state Youth Risk Behavior Surveys for the period 1999 through 2011 to estimate the relationship between the Meth Project, an anti-methamphetamine advertising campaign, and meth use among high school students. During this period, a total of eight states adopted anti-meth advertising campaigns. After accounting for pre-existing downward trends in meth use, we find little evidence that the campaign curbed meth use in the full sample. We do find, however, some evidence that the Meth Project may have decreased meth use among White high school students. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Quantum tomography via compressed sensing: error bounds, sample complexity and efficient estimators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flammia, Steven T; Gross, David; Liu, Yi-Kai; Eisert, Jens

    2012-01-01

    Intuitively, if a density operator has small rank, then it should be easier to estimate from experimental data, since in this case only a few eigenvectors need to be learned. We prove two complementary results that confirm this intuition. Firstly, we show that a low-rank density matrix can be estimated using fewer copies of the state, i.e. the sample complexity of tomography decreases with the rank. Secondly, we show that unknown low-rank states can be reconstructed from an incomplete set of measurements, using techniques from compressed sensing and matrix completion. These techniques use simple Pauli measurements, and their output can be certified without making any assumptions about the unknown state. In this paper, we present a new theoretical analysis of compressed tomography, based on the restricted isometry property for low-rank matrices. Using these tools, we obtain near-optimal error bounds for the realistic situation where the data contain noise due to finite statistics, and the density matrix is full-rank with decaying eigenvalues. We also obtain upper bounds on the sample complexity of compressed tomography, and almost-matching lower bounds on the sample complexity of any procedure using adaptive sequences of Pauli measurements. Using numerical simulations, we compare the performance of two compressed sensing estimators—the matrix Dantzig selector and the matrix Lasso—with standard maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE). We find that, given comparable experimental resources, the compressed sensing estimators consistently produce higher fidelity state reconstructions than MLE. In addition, the use of an incomplete set of measurements leads to faster classical processing with no loss of accuracy. Finally, we show how to certify the accuracy of a low-rank estimate using direct fidelity estimation, and describe a method for compressed quantum process tomography that works for processes with small Kraus rank and requires only Pauli eigenstate preparations

  11. The use of importance sampling in a trial assessment to obtain converged estimates of radiological risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, K.; Lucas, R.

    1986-12-01

    In developing a methodology for assessing potential sites for the disposal of radioactive wastes, the Department of the Environment has conducted a series of trial assessment exercises. In order to produce converged estimates of radiological risk using the SYVAC A/C simulation system an efficient sampling procedure is required. Previous work has demonstrated that importance sampling can substantially increase sampling efficiency. This study used importance sampling to produce converged estimates of risk for the first DoE trial assessment. Four major nuclide chains were analysed. In each case importance sampling produced converged risk estimates with between 10 and 170 times fewer runs of the SYVAC A/C model. This increase in sampling efficiency can reduce the total elapsed time required to obtain a converged estimate of risk from one nuclide chain by a factor of 20. The results of this study suggests that the use of importance sampling could reduce the elapsed time required to perform a risk assessment of a potential site by a factor of ten. (author)

  12. An efficient modularized sample-based method to estimate the first-order Sobol' index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Chenzhao; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    Sobol' index is a prominent methodology in global sensitivity analysis. This paper aims to directly estimate the Sobol' index based only on available input–output samples, even if the underlying model is unavailable. For this purpose, a new method to calculate the first-order Sobol' index is proposed. The innovation is that the conditional variance and mean in the formula of the first-order index are calculated at an unknown but existing location of model inputs, instead of an explicit user-defined location. The proposed method is modularized in two aspects: 1) index calculations for different model inputs are separate and use the same set of samples; and 2) model input sampling, model evaluation, and index calculation are separate. Due to this modularization, the proposed method is capable to compute the first-order index if only input–output samples are available but the underlying model is unavailable, and its computational cost is not proportional to the dimension of the model inputs. In addition, the proposed method can also estimate the first-order index with correlated model inputs. Considering that the first-order index is a desired metric to rank model inputs but current methods can only handle independent model inputs, the proposed method contributes to fill this gap. - Highlights: • An efficient method to estimate the first-order Sobol' index. • Estimate the index from input–output samples directly. • Computational cost is not proportional to the number of model inputs. • Handle both uncorrelated and correlated model inputs.

  13. Use of Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) to estimate vaccination coverage helps guide future vaccination efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberti, K P; Guthmann, J P; Fermon, F; Nargaye, K D; Grais, R F

    2008-03-01

    Inadequate evaluation of vaccine coverage after mass vaccination campaigns, such as used in national measles control programmes, can lead to inappropriate public health responses. Overestimation of vaccination coverage may leave populations at risk, whilst underestimation can lead to unnecessary catch-up campaigns. The problem is more complex in large urban areas where vaccination coverage may be heterogeneous and the programme may have to be fine-tuned at the level of geographic subunits. Lack of accurate population figures in many contexts further complicates accurate vaccination coverage estimates. During the evaluation of a mass vaccination campaign carried out in N'Djamena, the capital of Chad, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling was used to estimate vaccination coverage. Using this method, vaccination coverage could be evaluated within smaller geographic areas of the city as well as for the entire city. Despite the lack of accurate population data by neighbourhood, the results of the survey showed heterogeneity of vaccination coverage within the city. These differences would not have been identified using a more traditional method. The results can be used to target areas of low vaccination coverage during follow-up vaccination activities.

  14. A Survey of Cost Estimating Methodologies for Distributed Spacecraft Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, Veronica L.; Le Moigne, Jacqueline; de Weck, Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Satellite constellations present unique capabilities and opportunities to Earth orbiting and near-Earth scientific and communications missions, but also present new challenges to cost estimators. An effective and adaptive cost model is essential to successful mission design and implementation, and as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSM) become more common, cost estimating tools must become more representative of these types of designs. Existing cost models often focus on a single spacecraft and require extensive design knowledge to produce high fidelity estimates. Previous research has examined the limitations of existing cost practices as they pertain to the early stages of mission formulation, for both individual satellites and small satellite constellations. Recommendations have been made for how to improve the cost models for individual satellites one-at-a-time, but much of the complexity in constellation and DSM cost modeling arises from constellation systems level considerations that have not yet been examined. This paper constitutes a survey of the current state-of-theart in cost estimating techniques with recommendations for improvements to increase the fidelity of future constellation cost estimates. To enable our investigation, we have developed a cost estimating tool for constellation missions. The development of this tool has revealed three high-priority shortcomings within existing parametric cost estimating capabilities as they pertain to DSM architectures: design iteration, integration and test, and mission operations. Within this paper we offer illustrative examples of these discrepancies and make preliminary recommendations for addressing them. DSM and satellite constellation missions are shifting the paradigm of space-based remote sensing, showing promise in the realms of Earth science, planetary observation, and various heliophysical applications. To fully reap the benefits of DSM technology, accurate and relevant cost estimating capabilities

  15. A new unbiased stochastic derivative estimator for discontinuous sample performances with structural parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peng, Yijie; Fu, Michael C.; Hu, Jian Qiang; Heidergott, Bernd

    In this paper, we propose a new unbiased stochastic derivative estimator in a framework that can handle discontinuous sample performances with structural parameters. This work extends the three most popular unbiased stochastic derivative estimators: (1) infinitesimal perturbation analysis (IPA), (2)

  16. Sensitivity of postplanning target and OAR coverage estimates to dosimetric margin distribution sampling parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Huijun; Gordon, J James; Siebers, Jeffrey V

    2011-02-01

    A dosimetric margin (DM) is the margin in a specified direction between a structure and a specified isodose surface, corresponding to a prescription or tolerance dose. The dosimetric margin distribution (DMD) is the distribution of DMs over all directions. Given a geometric uncertainty model, representing inter- or intrafraction setup uncertainties or internal organ motion, the DMD can be used to calculate coverage Q, which is the probability that a realized target or organ-at-risk (OAR) dose metric D, exceeds the corresponding prescription or tolerance dose. Postplanning coverage evaluation quantifies the percentage of uncertainties for which target and OAR structures meet their intended dose constraints. The goal of the present work is to evaluate coverage probabilities for 28 prostate treatment plans to determine DMD sampling parameters that ensure adequate accuracy for postplanning coverage estimates. Normally distributed interfraction setup uncertainties were applied to 28 plans for localized prostate cancer, with prescribed dose of 79.2 Gy and 10 mm clinical target volume to planning target volume (CTV-to-PTV) margins. Using angular or isotropic sampling techniques, dosimetric margins were determined for the CTV, bladder and rectum, assuming shift invariance of the dose distribution. For angular sampling, DMDs were sampled at fixed angular intervals w (e.g., w = 1 degree, 2 degrees, 5 degrees, 10 degrees, 20 degrees). Isotropic samples were uniformly distributed on the unit sphere resulting in variable angular increments, but were calculated for the same number of sampling directions as angular DMDs, and accordingly characterized by the effective angular increment omega eff. In each direction, the DM was calculated by moving the structure in radial steps of size delta (=0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 mm) until the specified isodose was crossed. Coverage estimation accuracy deltaQ was quantified as a function of the sampling parameters omega or omega eff and delta. The

  17. Consistently low prevalence of syphilis among female sex workers in Jinan, China: findings from two consecutive respondent driven sampling surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meizhen Liao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Routine surveillance using convenient sampling found low prevalence of HIV and syphilis among female sex workers in China. Two consecutive surveys using respondent driven sampling were conducted in 2008 and 2009 to examine the prevalence of HIV and syphilis among female sex workers in Jinan, China. METHODS: A face-to-face interview was conducted to collect demographic, behavioral and service utilization information using a structured questionnaire. Blood samples were drawn for serological tests of HIV-1 antibody and syphilis antibody. Respondent Driven Sampling Analysis Tool was used to generate population level estimates. RESULTS: In 2008 and in 2009, 363 and 432 subjects were recruited and surveyed respectively. Prevalence of syphilis was 2.8% in 2008 and 2.2% in 2009, while no HIV case was found in both years. Results are comparable to those from routine sentinel surveillance system in the city. Only 60.8% subjects in 2008 and 48.3% in 2009 reported a consistent condom use with clients during the past month. Over 50% subjects had not been covered by any HIV-related services in the past year, with only 15.6% subjects in 2008 and 13.1% in 2009 ever tested for HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the low prevalence of syphilis and HIV, risk behaviors are common. Targeted interventions to promote the safe sex and utilization of existing intervention services are still needed to keep the epidemic from growing.

  18. Bridging the gaps between non-invasive genetic sampling and population parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francesca Marucco; Luigi Boitani; Daniel H. Pletscher; Michael K. Schwartz

    2011-01-01

    Reliable estimates of population parameters are necessary for effective management and conservation actions. The use of genetic data for capture­recapture (CR) analyses has become an important tool to estimate population parameters for elusive species. Strong emphasis has been placed on the genetic analysis of non-invasive samples, or on the CR analysis; however,...

  19. Sampling scales define occupancy and underlying occupancy-abundance relationships in animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenweg, Robin; Hebblewhite, Mark; Whittington, Jesse; Lukacs, Paul; McKelvey, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Occupancy-abundance (OA) relationships are a foundational ecological phenomenon and field of study, and occupancy models are increasingly used to track population trends and understand ecological interactions. However, these two fields of ecological inquiry remain largely isolated, despite growing appreciation of the importance of integration. For example, using occupancy models to infer trends in abundance is predicated on positive OA relationships. Many occupancy studies collect data that violate geographical closure assumptions due to the choice of sampling scales and application to mobile organisms, which may change how occupancy and abundance are related. Little research, however, has explored how different occupancy sampling designs affect OA relationships. We develop a conceptual framework for understanding how sampling scales affect the definition of occupancy for mobile organisms, which drives OA relationships. We explore how spatial and temporal sampling scales, and the choice of sampling unit (areal vs. point sampling), affect OA relationships. We develop predictions using simulations, and test them using empirical occupancy data from remote cameras on 11 medium-large mammals. Surprisingly, our simulations demonstrate that when using point sampling, OA relationships are unaffected by spatial sampling grain (i.e., cell size). In contrast, when using areal sampling (e.g., species atlas data), OA relationships are affected by spatial grain. Furthermore, OA relationships are also affected by temporal sampling scales, where the curvature of the OA relationship increases with temporal sampling duration. Our empirical results support these predictions, showing that at any given abundance, the spatial grain of point sampling does not affect occupancy estimates, but longer surveys do increase occupancy estimates. For rare species (low occupancy), estimates of occupancy will quickly increase with longer surveys, even while abundance remains constant. Our results

  20. Estimating an appropriate sampling frequency for monitoring ground water well contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuckfield, R.C.

    1994-01-01

    Nearly 1,500 ground water wells at the Savannah River Site (SRS) are sampled quarterly to monitor contamination by radionuclides and other hazardous constituents from nearby waste sites. Some 10,000 water samples were collected in 1993 at a laboratory analysis cost of $10,000,000. No widely accepted statistical method has been developed, to date, for estimating a technically defensible ground water sampling frequency consistent and compliant with federal regulations. Such a method is presented here based on the concept of statistical independence among successively measured contaminant concentrations in time

  1. Dried blood spot measurement: application in tacrolimus monitoring using limited sampling strategy and abbreviated AUC estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Chi Yuen; van der Heijden, Jaques; Hoogtanders, Karin; Christiaans, Maarten; Liu, Yan Lun; Chan, Yiu Han; Choi, Koon Shing; van de Plas, Afke; Shek, Chi Chung; Chau, Ka Foon; Li, Chun Sang; van Hooff, Johannes; Stolk, Leo

    2008-02-01

    Dried blood spot (DBS) sampling and high-performance liquid chromatography tandem-mass spectrometry have been developed in monitoring tacrolimus levels. Our center favors the use of limited sampling strategy and abbreviated formula to estimate the area under concentration-time curve (AUC(0-12)). However, it is inconvenient for patients because they have to wait in the center for blood sampling. We investigated the application of DBS method in tacrolimus level monitoring using limited sampling strategy and abbreviated AUC estimation approach. Duplicate venous samples were obtained at each time point (C(0), C(2), and C(4)). To determine the stability of blood samples, one venous sample was sent to our laboratory immediately. The other duplicate venous samples, together with simultaneous fingerprick blood samples, were sent to the University of Maastricht in the Netherlands. Thirty six patients were recruited and 108 sets of blood samples were collected. There was a highly significant relationship between AUC(0-12), estimated from venous blood samples, and fingerprick blood samples (r(2) = 0.96, P AUC(0-12) strategy as drug monitoring.

  2. Marine mammal surveys in Dutch waters in 2013

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geelhoed, S.C.V.; Scheidat, M.; Bemmelen, van R.S.A.

    2014-01-01

    In March/April 2013 aerial surveys to estimate the abundance of Harbour porpoises Phocoena phocoena on the Dutch Continental Shelf were conducted. These surveys were conducted along predetermined track lines using distance sampling methods in four areas: A “Dogger Bank”, B “Offshore”, C “Frisian

  3. Sampling and Analysis Plan for Supplemental Environmental Project: Aquatic Life Surveys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berryhill, Jesse Tobias [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Gaukler, Shannon Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-26

    As part of a settlement agreement for nuclear waste incidents in 2014, several supplemental environment projects (SEPs) were initiated at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory) between the U.S. Department of Energy and the state of New Mexico. One SEP from this agreement consists of performing aquatic life surveys and will be used to assess the applicability of using generic ambient water-quality criteria (AWQC) for aquatic life. AWQC are generic criteria developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to cover a broad range of aquatic species and are not unique to a specific region or state. AWQC are established by a composition of toxicity data, called species sensitivity distributions (SSDs), and are determined by LC50 (lethal concentration of 50% of the organisms studied) acute toxicity experiments for chemicals of interest. It is of interest to determine whether aquatic species inhabiting waters on the Pajarito Plateau are adequately protected using the current generic AWQC. The focus of this study will determine which aquatic species are present in ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial waters within LANL boundaries and from reference waters adjacent to LANL. If the species identified from these waters do not generally represent species used in the SSDs, then SSDs may need to be modified and AWQC may need to be updated. This sampling and analysis plan details the sampling methodology, surveillance locations, temporal scheduling, and analytical approaches that will be used to complete aquatic life surveys. A significant portion of this sampling and analysis plan was formalized by referring to Appendix E: SEP Aquatic Life Surveys DQO (Data Quality Objectives).

  4. The Precision of Effect Size Estimation From Published Psychological Research: Surveying Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Andrew; Bradley, Michael T

    2016-02-01

    Confidence interval ( CI) widths were calculated for reported Cohen's d standardized effect sizes and examined in two automated surveys of published psychological literature. The first survey reviewed 1,902 articles from Psychological Science. The second survey reviewed a total of 5,169 articles from across the following four APA journals: Journal of Abnormal Psychology, Journal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, and Developmental Psychology. The median CI width for d was greater than 1 in both surveys. Hence, CI widths were, as Cohen (1994) speculated, embarrassingly large. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that CI widths varied across psychological research areas and that CI widths were not discernably decreasing over time. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed along with ways of reducing the CI widths and thus improving precision of effect size estimation.

  5. Baysian estimation of P(X > x) from a small sample of Gaussian data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2017-01-01

    The classical statistical uncertainty problem of estimation of upper tail probabilities on the basis of a small sample of observations of a Gaussian random variable is considered. Predictive posterior estimation is discussed, adopting the standard statistical model with diffuse priors of the two...

  6. Nested PCR detection of malaria directly using blood filter paper samples from epidemiological surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peipei; Zhao, Zhenjun; Wang, Ying; Xing, Hua; Parker, Daniel M; Yang, Zhaoqing; Baum, Elizabeth; Li, Wenli; Sattabongkot, Jetsumon; Sirichaisinthop, Jeeraphat; Li, Shuying; Yan, Guiyun; Cui, Liwang; Fan, Qi

    2014-05-08

    Nested PCR is considered a sensitive and specific method for detecting malaria parasites and is especially useful in epidemiological surveys. However, the preparation of DNA templates for PCR is often time-consuming and costly. A simplified PCR method was developed to directly use a small blood filter paper square (2 × 2 mm) as the DNA template after treatment with saponin. This filter paper-based nested PCR method (FP-PCR) was compared to microscopy and standard nested PCR with DNA extracted by using a Qiagen DNA mini kit from filter paper blood spots of 204 febrile cases. The FP-PCR technique was further applied to evaluate malaria infections in 1,708 participants from cross-sectional epidemiological surveys conducted in Myanmar and Thailand. The FP-PCR method had a detection limit of ~0.2 parasites/μL blood, estimated using cultured Plasmodium falciparum parasites. With 204 field samples, the sensitivity of the FP-PCR method was comparable to that of the standard nested PCR method, which was significantly higher than that of microscopy. Application of the FP-PCR method in large cross-sectional studies conducted in Myanmar and Thailand detected 1.9% (12/638) and 6.2% (66/1,070) asymptomatic Plasmodium infections, respectively, as compared to the detection rates of 1.3% (8/638) and 0.04% (4/1,070) by microscopy. This FP-PCR method was much more sensitive than microscopy in detecting Plasmodium infections. It drastically increased the detection sensitivity of asymptomatic infections in cross-sectional surveys conducted in Thailand and Myanmar, suggesting that this FP-PCR method has a potential for future applications in malaria epidemiology studies.

  7. Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas Harder; Juul, Anders

    2004-01-01

    -like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used......Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards...... model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin...

  8. The perils of straying from protocol: sampling bias and interviewer effects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carrie J Ngongo

    Full Text Available Fidelity to research protocol is critical. In a contingent valuation study in an informal urban settlement in Nairobi, Kenya, participants responded differently to the three trained interviewers. Interviewer effects were present during the survey pilot, then magnified at the start of the main survey after a seemingly slight adaptation of the survey sampling protocol allowed interviewers to speak with the "closest neighbor" in the event that no one was home at a selected household. This slight degree of interviewer choice led to inferred sampling bias. Multinomial logistic regression and post-estimation tests revealed that the three interviewers' samples differed significantly from one another according to six demographic characteristics. The two female interviewers were 2.8 and 7.7 times less likely to talk with respondents of low socio-economic status than the male interviewer. Systematic error renders it impossible to determine which of the survey responses might be "correct." This experience demonstrates why researchers must take care to strictly follow sampling protocols, consistently train interviewers, and monitor responses by interview to ensure similarity between interviewers' groups and produce unbiased estimates of the parameters of interest.

  9. Probability Sampling - A Guideline for Quantitative Health Care ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A more direct definition is the method used for selecting a given ... description of the chosen population, the sampling procedure giving ... target population, precision, and stratification. The ... survey estimates, it is recommended that researchers first analyze a .... The optimum sample size has a relation to the type of planned ...

  10. An Employee Total Health Management–Based Survey of Iowa Employers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, James A.; Lind, David P.; Kelly, Kevin M.; Hall, Jennifer L.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To implement an Employee Total Health Management (ETHM) model-based questionnaire and provide estimates of model program elements among a statewide sample of Iowa employers. Methods Survey a stratified random sample of Iowa employers, characterize and estimate employer participation in ETHM program elements Results Iowa employers are implementing under 30% of all 12 components of ETHM, with the exception of occupational safety and health (46.6%) and worker compensation insurance coverage (89.2%), but intend modest expansion of all components in the coming year. Conclusions The Employee Total Health Management questionnaire-based survey provides estimates of progress Iowa employers are making toward implementing components of total worker health programs. PMID:24284757

  11. A Convenient Method for Estimation of the Isotopic Abundance in Uranium Bearing Samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AI -Saleh, F.S.; AI-Mukren, Alj.H.; Farouk, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    A convenient and simple method for estimation of the isotopic abundance in some uranium bearing samples using gamma-ray spectrometry is developed using a hyper pure germanium spectrometer and a standard uranium sample with known isotopic abundance

  12. A rapid method for estimation of Pu-isotopes in urine samples using high volume centrifuge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Ranjeet; Rao, D D; Dubla, Rupali; Yadav, J R

    2017-07-01

    The conventional radio-analytical technique used for estimation of Pu-isotopes in urine samples involves anion exchange/TEVA column separation followed by alpha spectrometry. This sequence of analysis consumes nearly 3-4 days for completion. Many a times excreta analysis results are required urgently, particularly under repeat and incidental/emergency situations. Therefore, there is need to reduce the analysis time for the estimation of Pu-isotopes in bioassay samples. This paper gives the details of standardization of a rapid method for estimation of Pu-isotopes in urine samples using multi-purpose centrifuge, TEVA resin followed by alpha spectrometry. The rapid method involves oxidation of urine samples, co-precipitation of plutonium along with calcium phosphate followed by sample preparation using high volume centrifuge and separation of Pu using TEVA resin. Pu-fraction was electrodeposited and activity estimated using 236 Pu tracer recovery by alpha spectrometry. Ten routine urine samples of radiation workers were analyzed and consistent radiochemical tracer recovery was obtained in the range 47-88% with a mean and standard deviation of 64.4% and 11.3% respectively. With this newly standardized technique, the whole analytical procedure is completed within 9h (one working day hour). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Optimal sampling designs for estimation of Plasmodium falciparum clearance rates in patients treated with artemisinin derivatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The emergence of Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinins in Southeast Asia threatens the control of malaria worldwide. The pharmacodynamic hallmark of artemisinin derivatives is rapid parasite clearance (a short parasite half-life), therefore, the in vivo phenotype of slow clearance defines the reduced susceptibility to the drug. Measurement of parasite counts every six hours during the first three days after treatment have been recommended to measure the parasite clearance half-life, but it remains unclear whether simpler sampling intervals and frequencies might also be sufficient to reliably estimate this parameter. Methods A total of 2,746 parasite density-time profiles were selected from 13 clinical trials in Thailand, Cambodia, Mali, Vietnam, and Kenya. In these studies, parasite densities were measured every six hours until negative after treatment with an artemisinin derivative (alone or in combination with a partner drug). The WWARN Parasite Clearance Estimator (PCE) tool was used to estimate “reference” half-lives from these six-hourly measurements. The effect of four alternative sampling schedules on half-life estimation was investigated, and compared to the reference half-life (time zero, 6, 12, 24 (A1); zero, 6, 18, 24 (A2); zero, 12, 18, 24 (A3) or zero, 12, 24 (A4) hours and then every 12 hours). Statistical bootstrap methods were used to estimate the sampling distribution of half-lives for parasite populations with different geometric mean half-lives. A simulation study was performed to investigate a suite of 16 potential alternative schedules and half-life estimates generated by each of the schedules were compared to the “true” half-life. The candidate schedules in the simulation study included (among others) six-hourly sampling, schedule A1, schedule A4, and a convenience sampling schedule at six, seven, 24, 25, 48 and 49 hours. Results The median (range) parasite half-life for all clinical studies combined was 3.1 (0

  14. Use of methods for specifying the target difference in randomised controlled trial sample size calculations: Two surveys of trialists' practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Jonathan A; Hislop, Jennifer M; Altman, Doug G; Briggs, Andrew H; Fayers, Peter M; Norrie, John D; Ramsay, Craig R; Harvey, Ian M; Vale, Luke D

    2014-06-01

    the most recent trial, the target difference was usually one viewed as important by a stakeholder group, mostly also viewed as a realistic difference given the interventions under evaluation, and sometimes one that led to an achievable sample size. The response rates achieved were relatively low despite the surveys being short, well presented, and having utilised reminders. Substantial variations in practice exist with awareness, use, and willingness to recommend methods varying substantially. The findings support the view that sample size calculation is a more complex process than would appear to be the case from trial reports and protocols. Guidance on approaches for sample size estimation may increase both awareness and use of appropriate formal methods. © The Author(s), 2014.

  15. A structured sparse regression method for estimating isoform expression level from multi-sample RNA-seq data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, L; Liu, X J

    2016-06-03

    With the rapid development of next-generation high-throughput sequencing technology, RNA-seq has become a standard and important technique for transcriptome analysis. For multi-sample RNA-seq data, the existing expression estimation methods usually deal with each single-RNA-seq sample, and ignore that the read distributions are consistent across multiple samples. In the current study, we propose a structured sparse regression method, SSRSeq, to estimate isoform expression using multi-sample RNA-seq data. SSRSeq uses a non-parameter model to capture the general tendency of non-uniformity read distribution for all genes across multiple samples. Additionally, our method adds a structured sparse regularization, which not only incorporates the sparse specificity between a gene and its corresponding isoform expression levels, but also reduces the effects of noisy reads, especially for lowly expressed genes and isoforms. Four real datasets were used to evaluate our method on isoform expression estimation. Compared with other popular methods, SSRSeq reduced the variance between multiple samples, and produced more accurate isoform expression estimations, and thus more meaningful biological interpretations.

  16. Residual Wage Differences by Gender: Bounding the Estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellariou, Chris N.; Patrinos, Harry A.

    1996-01-01

    Uses data from the 1986 Canadian labor market activity survey file to derive estimates of residual gender wage gap differences. Investigates these estimates' dependence on experimental design and on assumptions about discrimination-free wage structures. Residual differences persist, even after restricting the sample to a group of highly motivated,…

  17. Estimation of uranium isotope in urine samples using extraction chromatography resin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thakur, Smita S.; Yadav, J.R.; Rao, D.D.

    2012-01-01

    Internal exposure monitoring for alpha emitting radionuclides is carried out by bioassay samples analysis. For occupational radiation workers handling uranium in reprocessing or fuel fabrication facilities, there exists a possibility of internal exposure and urine assay is the preferred method for monitoring such exposure. Estimation of lower concentration of uranium at mBq level by alpha spectrometry requires preconcentration and its separation from large volume of urine sample. For this purpose, urine samples collected from non radiation workers were spiked with 232 U tracer at mBq level to estimate the chemical yield. Uranium in urine sample was pre-concentrated by calcium phosphate coprecipitation and separated by extraction chromatography resin U/TEVA. In this resin extractant was DAAP (Diamylamylphosphonate) supported on inert Amberlite XAD-7 support material. After co-precipitation, precipitate was centrifuged and dissolved in 10 ml of 1M Al(NO 3 ) 3 prepared in 3M HNO 3 . The sample thus prepared was loaded on extraction chromatography resin, pre-conditioned with 10 ml of 3M HNO 3 . Column was washed with 10 ml of 3M HNO 3 . Column was again rinsed with 5 ml of 9M HCl followed by 20 ml of 0.05 M oxalic acid prepared in 5M HCl to remove interference due to Th and Np if present in the sample. Uranium was eluted from U/TEVA column with 15 ml of 0.01M HCl. The eluted uranium fraction was electrodeposited on stainless steel planchet and counted by alpha spectrometry for 360000 sec. Approximate analysis time involved from sample loading to stripping is 2 hours when compared with the time involved of 3.5 hours by conventional ion exchange method. Seven urine samples from non radiation worker were radio chemically analyzed by this technique and the radiochemical yield was found in the range of 69-91 %. Efficacy of this method against conventional anion exchange technique earlier standardized at this laboratory is also being highlighted. Minimum detectable activity

  18. Inverse probability weighting and doubly robust methods in correcting the effects of non-response in the reimbursed medication and self-reported turnout estimates in the ATH survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Härkänen, Tommi; Kaikkonen, Risto; Virtala, Esa; Koskinen, Seppo

    2014-11-06

    To assess the nonresponse rates in a questionnaire survey with respect to administrative register data, and to correct the bias statistically. The Finnish Regional Health and Well-being Study (ATH) in 2010 was based on a national sample and several regional samples. Missing data analysis was based on socio-demographic register data covering the whole sample. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) and doubly robust (DR) methods were estimated using the logistic regression model, which was selected using the Bayesian information criteria. The crude, weighted and true self-reported turnout in the 2008 municipal election and prevalences of entitlements to specially reimbursed medication, and the crude and weighted body mass index (BMI) means were compared. The IPW method appeared to remove a relatively large proportion of the bias compared to the crude prevalence estimates of the turnout and the entitlements to specially reimbursed medication. Several demographic factors were shown to be associated with missing data, but few interactions were found. Our results suggest that the IPW method can improve the accuracy of results of a population survey, and the model selection provides insight into the structure of missing data. However, health-related missing data mechanisms are beyond the scope of statistical methods, which mainly rely on socio-demographic information to correct the results.

  19. Estimating the sample mean and standard deviation from the sample size, median, range and/or interquartile range

    OpenAIRE

    Wan, Xiang; Wang, Wenqian; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

    2014-01-01

    Background In systematic reviews and meta-analysis, researchers often pool the results of the sample mean and standard deviation from a set of similar clinical trials. A number of the trials, however, reported the study using the median, the minimum and maximum values, and/or the first and third quartiles. Hence, in order to combine results, one may have to estimate the sample mean and standard deviation for such trials. Methods In this paper, we propose to improve the existing literature in ...

  20. A Nationwide Random Sampling Survey of Potential Complicated Grief in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuno, Yasunao; Kishimoto, Junji; Asukai, Nozomu

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the prevalence of significant loss, potential complicated grief (CG), and its contributing factors, we conducted a nationwide random sampling survey of Japanese adults aged 18 or older (N = 1,343) using a self-rating Japanese-language version of the Complicated Grief Brief Screen. Among them, 37.0% experienced their most significant…

  1. Near-native protein loop sampling using nonparametric density estimation accommodating sparcity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, Hyun; Chavan, Archana G; Day, Ryan; Lennox, Kristin P; Sukhanov, Paul; Dahl, David B; Vannucci, Marina; Tsai, Jerry

    2011-10-01

    Unlike the core structural elements of a protein like regular secondary structure, template based modeling (TBM) has difficulty with loop regions due to their variability in sequence and structure as well as the sparse sampling from a limited number of homologous templates. We present a novel, knowledge-based method for loop sampling that leverages homologous torsion angle information to estimate a continuous joint backbone dihedral angle density at each loop position. The φ,ψ distributions are estimated via a Dirichlet process mixture of hidden Markov models (DPM-HMM). Models are quickly generated based on samples from these distributions and were enriched using an end-to-end distance filter. The performance of the DPM-HMM method was evaluated against a diverse test set in a leave-one-out approach. Candidates as low as 0.45 Å RMSD and with a worst case of 3.66 Å were produced. For the canonical loops like the immunoglobulin complementarity-determining regions (mean RMSD 7.0 Å), this sampling method produces a population of loop structures to around 3.66 Å for loops up to 17 residues. In a direct test of sampling to the Loopy algorithm, our method demonstrates the ability to sample nearer native structures for both the canonical CDRH1 and non-canonical CDRH3 loops. Lastly, in the realistic test conditions of the CASP9 experiment, successful application of DPM-HMM for 90 loops from 45 TBM targets shows the general applicability of our sampling method in loop modeling problem. These results demonstrate that our DPM-HMM produces an advantage by consistently sampling near native loop structure. The software used in this analysis is available for download at http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~dahl/software/cortorgles/.

  2. Near-native protein loop sampling using nonparametric density estimation accommodating sparcity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun Joo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Unlike the core structural elements of a protein like regular secondary structure, template based modeling (TBM has difficulty with loop regions due to their variability in sequence and structure as well as the sparse sampling from a limited number of homologous templates. We present a novel, knowledge-based method for loop sampling that leverages homologous torsion angle information to estimate a continuous joint backbone dihedral angle density at each loop position. The φ,ψ distributions are estimated via a Dirichlet process mixture of hidden Markov models (DPM-HMM. Models are quickly generated based on samples from these distributions and were enriched using an end-to-end distance filter. The performance of the DPM-HMM method was evaluated against a diverse test set in a leave-one-out approach. Candidates as low as 0.45 Å RMSD and with a worst case of 3.66 Å were produced. For the canonical loops like the immunoglobulin complementarity-determining regions (mean RMSD 7.0 Å, this sampling method produces a population of loop structures to around 3.66 Å for loops up to 17 residues. In a direct test of sampling to the Loopy algorithm, our method demonstrates the ability to sample nearer native structures for both the canonical CDRH1 and non-canonical CDRH3 loops. Lastly, in the realistic test conditions of the CASP9 experiment, successful application of DPM-HMM for 90 loops from 45 TBM targets shows the general applicability of our sampling method in loop modeling problem. These results demonstrate that our DPM-HMM produces an advantage by consistently sampling near native loop structure. The software used in this analysis is available for download at http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~dahl/software/cortorgles/.

  3. Near-Native Protein Loop Sampling Using Nonparametric Density Estimation Accommodating Sparcity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Ryan; Lennox, Kristin P.; Sukhanov, Paul; Dahl, David B.; Vannucci, Marina; Tsai, Jerry

    2011-01-01

    Unlike the core structural elements of a protein like regular secondary structure, template based modeling (TBM) has difficulty with loop regions due to their variability in sequence and structure as well as the sparse sampling from a limited number of homologous templates. We present a novel, knowledge-based method for loop sampling that leverages homologous torsion angle information to estimate a continuous joint backbone dihedral angle density at each loop position. The φ,ψ distributions are estimated via a Dirichlet process mixture of hidden Markov models (DPM-HMM). Models are quickly generated based on samples from these distributions and were enriched using an end-to-end distance filter. The performance of the DPM-HMM method was evaluated against a diverse test set in a leave-one-out approach. Candidates as low as 0.45 Å RMSD and with a worst case of 3.66 Å were produced. For the canonical loops like the immunoglobulin complementarity-determining regions (mean RMSD 7.0 Å), this sampling method produces a population of loop structures to around 3.66 Å for loops up to 17 residues. In a direct test of sampling to the Loopy algorithm, our method demonstrates the ability to sample nearer native structures for both the canonical CDRH1 and non-canonical CDRH3 loops. Lastly, in the realistic test conditions of the CASP9 experiment, successful application of DPM-HMM for 90 loops from 45 TBM targets shows the general applicability of our sampling method in loop modeling problem. These results demonstrate that our DPM-HMM produces an advantage by consistently sampling near native loop structure. The software used in this analysis is available for download at http://www.stat.tamu.edu/~dahl/software/cortorgles/. PMID:22028638

  4. Sampling Error in Relation to Cyst Nematode Population Density Estimation in Small Field Plots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Župunski, Vesna; Jevtić, Radivoje; Jokić, Vesna Spasić; Župunski, Ljubica; Lalošević, Mirjana; Ćirić, Mihajlo; Ćurčić, Živko

    2017-06-01

    Cyst nematodes are serious plant-parasitic pests which could cause severe yield losses and extensive damage. Since there is still very little information about error of population density estimation in small field plots, this study contributes to the broad issue of population density assessment. It was shown that there was no significant difference between cyst counts of five or seven bulk samples taken per each 1-m 2 plot, if average cyst count per examined plot exceeds 75 cysts per 100 g of soil. Goodness of fit of data to probability distribution tested with χ 2 test confirmed a negative binomial distribution of cyst counts for 21 out of 23 plots. The recommended measure of sampling precision of 17% expressed through coefficient of variation ( cv ) was achieved if the plots of 1 m 2 contaminated with more than 90 cysts per 100 g of soil were sampled with 10-core bulk samples taken in five repetitions. If plots were contaminated with less than 75 cysts per 100 g of soil, 10-core bulk samples taken in seven repetitions gave cv higher than 23%. This study indicates that more attention should be paid on estimation of sampling error in experimental field plots to ensure more reliable estimation of population density of cyst nematodes.

  5. Estimation of functional failure probability of passive systems based on adaptive importance sampling method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Baosheng; Wang Dongqing; Zhang Jianmin; Jiang Jing

    2012-01-01

    In order to estimate the functional failure probability of passive systems, an innovative adaptive importance sampling methodology is presented. In the proposed methodology, information of variables is extracted with some pre-sampling of points in the failure region. An important sampling density is then constructed from the sample distribution in the failure region. Taking the AP1000 passive residual heat removal system as an example, the uncertainties related to the model of a passive system and the numerical values of its input parameters are considered in this paper. And then the probability of functional failure is estimated with the combination of the response surface method and adaptive importance sampling method. The numerical results demonstrate the high computed efficiency and excellent computed accuracy of the methodology compared with traditional probability analysis methods. (authors)

  6. Weak-lensing mass calibration of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope equatorial Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster sample with the Canada-France-Hawaii telescope stripe 82 survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Battaglia, N.; Miyatake, H.; Hasselfield, M.; Calabrese, E.; Ferrara, S.; Hložek, R. [Dept. of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (United States); Leauthaud, A. [Kavli IPMU (WPI), UTIAS, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8583 (Japan); Gralla, M.B.; Crichton, D. [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Allison, R.; Dunkley, J. [Dept. of Astrophysics, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Bond, J.R. [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, Toronto, ON M5S 3H8 (Canada); Devlin, M.J. [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States); Dünner, R. [Dept. de Astronomía y Astrofísica, Facultad de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago (Chile); Erben, T. [Argelander-Institut für Astronomie, University of Bonn, 53121 Bonn (Germany); Halpern, M.; Hincks, A.D. [Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4 (Canada); Hilton, M. [Astrophysics and Cosmology Research Unit, School of Mathematical, Statistics and Computer Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 4041 (South Africa); Hill, J.C. [Dept. of Astronomy, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 (United States); Huffenberger, K.M., E-mail: nbatta@astro.princeton.edu [Dept. of Physics, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL 32306 (United States); and others

    2016-08-01

    Mass calibration uncertainty is the largest systematic effect for using clusters of galaxies to constrain cosmological parameters. We present weak lensing mass measurements from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Stripe 82 Survey for galaxy clusters selected through their high signal-to-noise thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) signal measured with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). For a sample of 9 ACT clusters with a tSZ signal-to-noise greater than five the average weak lensing mass is (4.8±0.8) ×10{sup 14} M{sub ⊙}, consistent with the tSZ mass estimate of (4.70±1.0) ×10{sup 14} M{sub ⊙} which assumes a universal pressure profile for the cluster gas. Our results are consistent with previous weak-lensing measurements of tSZ-detected clusters from the Planck satellite. When comparing our results, we estimate the Eddington bias correction for the sample intersection of Planck and weak-lensing clusters which was previously excluded.

  7. Weak-Lensing Mass Calibration of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Equatorial Sunyaev-Zeldovich Cluster Sample with the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Stripe 82 Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglia, N.; Leauthaud, A.; Miyatake, H.; Hasseleld, M.; Gralla, M. B.; Allison, R.; Bond, J. R.; Calabrese, E.; Crichton, D.; Devlin, M. J.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Mass calibration uncertainty is the largest systematic effect for using clustersof galaxies to constrain cosmological parameters. We present weak lensing mass measurements from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Stripe 82 Survey for galaxy clusters selected through their high signal-to-noise thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) signal measured with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). For a sample of 9 ACT clusters with a tSZ signal-to-noise greater than five, the average weak lensing mass is (4.8 plus or minus 0.8) times 10 (sup 14) solar mass, consistent with the tSZ mass estimate of (4.7 plus or minus 1.0) times 10 (sup 14) solar mass, which assumes a universal pressure profile for the cluster gas. Our results are consistent with previous weak-lensing measurements of tSZ-detected clusters from the Planck satellite. When comparing our results, we estimate the Eddington bias correction for the sample intersection of Planck and weak-lensing clusters which was previously excluded.

  8. Weak-lensing mass calibration of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope equatorial Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster sample with the Canada-France-Hawaii telescope stripe 82 survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Battaglia, N.; Miyatake, H.; Hasselfield, M.; Calabrese, E.; Ferrara, S.; Hložek, R.; Leauthaud, A.; Gralla, M.B.; Crichton, D.; Allison, R.; Dunkley, J.; Bond, J.R.; Devlin, M.J.; Dünner, R.; Erben, T.; Halpern, M.; Hincks, A.D.; Hilton, M.; Hill, J.C.; Huffenberger, K.M.

    2016-01-01

    Mass calibration uncertainty is the largest systematic effect for using clusters of galaxies to constrain cosmological parameters. We present weak lensing mass measurements from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Stripe 82 Survey for galaxy clusters selected through their high signal-to-noise thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) signal measured with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). For a sample of 9 ACT clusters with a tSZ signal-to-noise greater than five the average weak lensing mass is (4.8±0.8) ×10 14 M ⊙ , consistent with the tSZ mass estimate of (4.70±1.0) ×10 14 M ⊙ which assumes a universal pressure profile for the cluster gas. Our results are consistent with previous weak-lensing measurements of tSZ-detected clusters from the Planck satellite. When comparing our results, we estimate the Eddington bias correction for the sample intersection of Planck and weak-lensing clusters which was previously excluded.

  9. Evaluation of design flood estimates with respect to sample size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobierska, Florian; Engeland, Kolbjorn

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of design floods forms the basis for hazard management related to flood risk and is a legal obligation when building infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads close to water bodies. Flood inundation maps used for land use planning are also produced based on design flood estimates. In Norway, the current guidelines for design flood estimates give recommendations on which data, probability distribution, and method to use dependent on length of the local record. If less than 30 years of local data is available, an index flood approach is recommended where the local observations are used for estimating the index flood and regional data are used for estimating the growth curve. For 30-50 years of data, a 2 parameter distribution is recommended, and for more than 50 years of data, a 3 parameter distribution should be used. Many countries have national guidelines for flood frequency estimation, and recommended distributions include the log Pearson II, generalized logistic and generalized extreme value distributions. For estimating distribution parameters, ordinary and linear moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods are used. The aim of this study is to r-evaluate the guidelines for local flood frequency estimation. In particular, we wanted to answer the following questions: (i) Which distribution gives the best fit to the data? (ii) Which estimation method provides the best fit to the data? (iii) Does the answer to (i) and (ii) depend on local data availability? To answer these questions we set up a test bench for local flood frequency analysis using data based cross-validation methods. The criteria were based on indices describing stability and reliability of design flood estimates. Stability is used as a criterion since design flood estimates should not excessively depend on the data sample. The reliability indices describe to which degree design flood predictions can be trusted.

  10. Estimation of sample size and testing power (part 6).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Liang-ping; Bao, Xiao-lei; Guan, Xue; Zhou, Shi-guo

    2012-03-01

    The design of one factor with k levels (k ≥ 3) refers to the research that only involves one experimental factor with k levels (k ≥ 3), and there is no arrangement for other important non-experimental factors. This paper introduces the estimation of sample size and testing power for quantitative data and qualitative data having a binary response variable with the design of one factor with k levels (k ≥ 3).

  11. A Simple Sampling Method for Estimating the Accuracy of Large Scale Record Linkage Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, James H; Guiver, Tenniel; Randall, Sean M; Ferrante, Anna M; Semmens, James B; Anderson, Phil; Dickinson, Teresa

    2016-05-17

    Record linkage techniques allow different data collections to be brought together to provide a wider picture of the health status of individuals. Ensuring high linkage quality is important to guarantee the quality and integrity of research. Current methods for measuring linkage quality typically focus on precision (the proportion of incorrect links), given the difficulty of measuring the proportion of false negatives. The aim of this work is to introduce and evaluate a sampling based method to estimate both precision and recall following record linkage. In the sampling based method, record-pairs from each threshold (including those below the identified cut-off for acceptance) are sampled and clerically reviewed. These results are then applied to the entire set of record-pairs, providing estimates of false positives and false negatives. This method was evaluated on a synthetically generated dataset, where the true match status (which records belonged to the same person) was known. The sampled estimates of linkage quality were relatively close to actual linkage quality metrics calculated for the whole synthetic dataset. The precision and recall measures for seven reviewers were very consistent with little variation in the clerical assessment results (overall agreement using the Fleiss Kappa statistics was 0.601). This method presents as a possible means of accurately estimating matching quality and refining linkages in population level linkage studies. The sampling approach is especially important for large project linkages where the number of record pairs produced may be very large often running into millions.

  12. Adaptive geostatistical sampling enables efficient identification of malaria hotspots in repeated cross-sectional surveys in rural Malawi.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alinune N Kabaghe

    Full Text Available In the context of malaria elimination, interventions will need to target high burden areas to further reduce transmission. Current tools to monitor and report disease burden lack the capacity to continuously detect fine-scale spatial and temporal variations of disease distribution exhibited by malaria. These tools use random sampling techniques that are inefficient for capturing underlying heterogeneity while health facility data in resource-limited settings are inaccurate. Continuous community surveys of malaria burden provide real-time results of local spatio-temporal variation. Adaptive geostatistical design (AGD improves prediction of outcome of interest compared to current random sampling techniques. We present findings of continuous malaria prevalence surveys using an adaptive sampling design.We conducted repeated cross sectional surveys guided by an adaptive sampling design to monitor the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia and anaemia in children below five years old in the communities living around Majete Wildlife Reserve in Chikwawa district, Southern Malawi. AGD sampling uses previously collected data to sample new locations of high prediction variance or, where prediction exceeds a set threshold. We fitted a geostatistical model to predict malaria prevalence in the area.We conducted five rounds of sampling, and tested 876 children aged 6-59 months from 1377 households over a 12-month period. Malaria prevalence prediction maps showed spatial heterogeneity and presence of hotspots-where predicted malaria prevalence was above 30%; predictors of malaria included age, socio-economic status and ownership of insecticide-treated mosquito nets.Continuous malaria prevalence surveys using adaptive sampling increased malaria prevalence prediction accuracy. Results from the surveys were readily available after data collection. The tool can assist local managers to target malaria control interventions in areas with the greatest health impact and is

  13. Intra-class correlation estimates for assessment of vitamin A intake in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Girdhar G; Awasthi, Shally; Walter, Stephen D

    2005-03-01

    In many community-based surveys, multi-level sampling is inherent in the design. In the design of these studies, especially to calculate the appropriate sample size, investigators need good estimates of intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), along with the cluster size, to adjust for variation inflation due to clustering at each level. The present study used data on the assessment of clinical vitamin A deficiency and intake of vitamin A-rich food in children in a district in India. For the survey, 16 households were sampled from 200 villages nested within eight randomly-selected blocks of the district. ICCs and components of variances were estimated from a three-level hierarchical random effects analysis of variance model. Estimates of ICCs and variance components were obtained at village and block levels. Between-cluster variation was evident at each level of clustering. In these estimates, ICCs were inversely related to cluster size, but the design effect could be substantial for large clusters. At the block level, most ICC estimates were below 0.07. At the village level, many ICC estimates ranged from 0.014 to 0.45. These estimates may provide useful information for the design of epidemiological studies in which the sampled (or allocated) units range in size from households to large administrative zones.

  14. Estimation of uranium in different types of water and sand samples by adsorptive stripping voltammetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhalke, Sunil; Raghunath, Radha; Mishra, Suchismita; Suseela, B.; Tripathi, R.M.; Pandit, G.G.; Shukla, V.K.; Puranik, V.D.

    2005-01-01

    A method is standardized for the estimation of uranium by adsorptive stripping voltammetry using chloranilic acid (CAA) as complexing agent. The optimum parameters to get best sensitivity and good reproducibility for uranium were 60s adsorption time, pH 1.8, chloranilic acid (2x10 -4 M) and 0.002M EDTA. The peak potential under this condition was found to be -0.03 V. With these optimum parameters a sensitivity of 1.19 nA/nM uranium was observed. Detection limit for this optimum parameter was found to be 0.55 nM. This can be further improved by increasing adsorption time. Using this method, uranium was estimated in different type of water samples such as seawater, synthetic seawater, stream water, tap water, well water, bore well water and process water. This method has also been used for estimation of uranium in sand, organic solvent used for extraction of uranium from phosphoric acid and its raffinate. Sample digestion procedures used for estimation of uranium in various matrices are discussed. It has been observed from the analysis that the uranium peak potentials changes with matrix of the sample, hence, standard addition method is the best method to get reliable and accurate results. Quality assurance of the standardized method is verified by analyzing certified reference water sample from USDOE, participating intercomparison exercises and also by estimating uranium content in water samples both by differential pulse adsorptive stripping voltammetric and laser fluorimetric techniques. (author)

  15. Web-based surveys as an alternative to traditional mail methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleming, Christopher M; Bowden, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Environmental economists have long used surveys to gather information about people's preferences. A recent innovation in survey methodology has been the advent of web-based surveys. While the Internet appears to offer a promising alternative to conventional survey administration modes, concerns exist over potential sampling biases associated with web-based surveys and the effect these may have on valuation estimates. This paper compares results obtained from a travel cost questionnaire of visitors to Fraser Island, Australia, that was conducted using two alternate survey administration modes; conventional mail and web-based. It is found that response rates and the socio-demographic make-up of respondents to the two survey modes are not statistically different. Moreover, both modes yield similar consumer surplus estimates.

  16. Per tree estimates with n-tree distance sampling: an application to increment core data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas B. Lynch; Robert F. Wittwer

    2002-01-01

    Per tree estimates using the n trees nearest a point can be obtained by using a ratio of per unit area estimates from n-tree distance sampling. This ratio was used to estimate average age by d.b.h. classes for cottonwood trees (Populus deltoides Bartr. ex Marsh.) on the Cimarron National Grassland. Increment...

  17. Sampling methods. A survey of methods in use in the Nordic countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Isaksson, M.

    2000-10-01

    This report is a survey of sampling techniques currently in use for radioactivity measurements in the Nordic countries, but restricted to sampling techniques for pasture, soil and deposition in emergency situations. It is found that the participating laboratories apply similar sampling procedures for pasture, including cutting height and size of sampled areas. Soil samples are generally taken by some sort of corer of different diameter. The number of cores taken varies, different sampling patterns are used, and pooling of the samples is done by some of the laboratories. The analysis of pasture and of soil is made with Nal-detectors or by high-resolution gamma spectrometry on fresh or dried samples. Precipitation collectors of a range of sizes are used to determine the activity concentration in precipitation and of dry deposited radionuclides. The analysis is made with high-resolution gamma-spectrometry, either directly on a water sample or on ion exchange resins. (au)

  18. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Femke Broekhuis

    Full Text Available Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

  19. Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

    2016-01-01

    Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

  20. Evaluation of species richness estimators based on quantitative performance measures and sensitivity to patchiness and sample grain size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willie, Jacob; Petre, Charles-Albert; Tagg, Nikki; Lens, Luc

    2012-11-01

    Data from forest herbaceous plants in a site of known species richness in Cameroon were used to test the performance of rarefaction and eight species richness estimators (ACE, ICE, Chao1, Chao2, Jack1, Jack2, Bootstrap and MM). Bias, accuracy, precision and sensitivity to patchiness and sample grain size were the evaluation criteria. An evaluation of the effects of sampling effort and patchiness on diversity estimation is also provided. Stems were identified and counted in linear series of 1-m2 contiguous square plots distributed in six habitat types. Initially, 500 plots were sampled in each habitat type. The sampling process was monitored using rarefaction and a set of richness estimator curves. Curves from the first dataset suggested adequate sampling in riparian forest only. Additional plots ranging from 523 to 2143 were subsequently added in the undersampled habitats until most of the curves stabilized. Jack1 and ICE, the non-parametric richness estimators, performed better, being more accurate and less sensitive to patchiness and sample grain size, and significantly reducing biases that could not be detected by rarefaction and other estimators. This study confirms the usefulness of non-parametric incidence-based estimators, and recommends Jack1 or ICE alongside rarefaction while describing taxon richness and comparing results across areas sampled using similar or different grain sizes. As patchiness varied across habitat types, accurate estimations of diversity did not require the same number of plots. The number of samples needed to fully capture diversity is not necessarily the same across habitats, and can only be known when taxon sampling curves have indicated adequate sampling. Differences in observed species richness between habitats were generally due to differences in patchiness, except between two habitats where they resulted from differences in abundance. We suggest that communities should first be sampled thoroughly using appropriate taxon sampling

  1. CT dose survey in adults: what sample size for what precision?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, Stephen; Muylem, Alain van; Howarth, Nigel; Gevenois, Pierre Alain; Tack, Denis

    2017-01-01

    To determine variability of volume computed tomographic dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) data, and propose a minimum sample size to achieve an expected precision. CTDIvol and DLP values of 19,875 consecutive CT acquisitions of abdomen (7268), thorax (3805), lumbar spine (3161), cervical spine (1515) and head (4106) were collected in two centers. Their variabilities were investigated according to sample size (10 to 1000 acquisitions) and patient body weight categories (no weight selection, 67-73 kg and 60-80 kg). The 95 % confidence interval in percentage of their median (CI95/med) value was calculated for increasing sample sizes. We deduced the sample size that set a 95 % CI lower than 10 % of the median (CI95/med ≤ 10 %). Sample size ensuring CI95/med ≤ 10 %, ranged from 15 to 900 depending on the body region and the dose descriptor considered. In sample sizes recommended by regulatory authorities (i.e., from 10-20 patients), mean CTDIvol and DLP of one sample ranged from 0.50 to 2.00 times its actual value extracted from 2000 samples. The sampling error in CTDIvol and DLP means is high in dose surveys based on small samples of patients. Sample size should be increased at least tenfold to decrease this variability. (orig.)

  2. CT dose survey in adults: what sample size for what precision?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taylor, Stephen [Hopital Ambroise Pare, Department of Radiology, Mons (Belgium); Muylem, Alain van [Hopital Erasme, Department of Pneumology, Brussels (Belgium); Howarth, Nigel [Clinique des Grangettes, Department of Radiology, Chene-Bougeries (Switzerland); Gevenois, Pierre Alain [Hopital Erasme, Department of Radiology, Brussels (Belgium); Tack, Denis [EpiCURA, Clinique Louis Caty, Department of Radiology, Baudour (Belgium)

    2017-01-15

    To determine variability of volume computed tomographic dose index (CTDIvol) and dose-length product (DLP) data, and propose a minimum sample size to achieve an expected precision. CTDIvol and DLP values of 19,875 consecutive CT acquisitions of abdomen (7268), thorax (3805), lumbar spine (3161), cervical spine (1515) and head (4106) were collected in two centers. Their variabilities were investigated according to sample size (10 to 1000 acquisitions) and patient body weight categories (no weight selection, 67-73 kg and 60-80 kg). The 95 % confidence interval in percentage of their median (CI95/med) value was calculated for increasing sample sizes. We deduced the sample size that set a 95 % CI lower than 10 % of the median (CI95/med ≤ 10 %). Sample size ensuring CI95/med ≤ 10 %, ranged from 15 to 900 depending on the body region and the dose descriptor considered. In sample sizes recommended by regulatory authorities (i.e., from 10-20 patients), mean CTDIvol and DLP of one sample ranged from 0.50 to 2.00 times its actual value extracted from 2000 samples. The sampling error in CTDIvol and DLP means is high in dose surveys based on small samples of patients. Sample size should be increased at least tenfold to decrease this variability. (orig.)

  3. Survey Mode Effects on Valuation of Environmental Goods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason Bell

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This article evaluates the effect of the choice of survey recruitment mode on the value of water quality in lakes, rivers, and streams. Four different modes are compared: bringing respondents to one central location after phone recruitment, mall intercepts in two states, national phone-mail survey, and an Internet survey with a national, probability-based panel. The modes differ in terms of the representativeness of the samples, non-response rates, sample selection effects, and consistency of responses. The article also shows that the estimated value of water quality can differ substantially depending on the survey mode. The national Internet panel has the most desirable properties with respect to performance on the four important survey dimensions of interest.

  4. Estimation of the sugar cane cultivated area from LANDSAT images using the two phase sampling method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Cappelletti, C. A.; Mendonca, F. J.; Lee, D. C. L.; Shimabukuro, Y. E.

    1982-01-01

    A two phase sampling method and the optimal sampling segment dimensions for the estimation of sugar cane cultivated area were developed. This technique employs visual interpretations of LANDSAT images and panchromatic aerial photographs considered as the ground truth. The estimates, as a mean value of 100 simulated samples, represent 99.3% of the true value with a CV of approximately 1%; the relative efficiency of the two phase design was 157% when compared with a one phase aerial photographs sample.

  5. Estimating abundance of adult striped bass in reservoirs using mobile hydroacoustics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hightower, Joseph E.; Taylor, J. Christopher; Degan, Donald J.

    2013-01-01

    Hydroacoustic surveys have proven valuable for estimating reservoir forage fish abundance but are more challenging for adult predators such as striped bass Morone saxatilis. Difficulties in assessing striped bass in reservoirs include their low density and the inability to distinguish species with hydroacoustic data alone. Despite these difficulties, mobile hydroacoustic surveys have potential to provide useful data for management because of the large sample volume compared to traditional methods such as gill netting and the ability to target specific areas where striped bass are aggregated. Hydroacoustic estimates of reservoir striped bass have been made using mobile surveys, with data analysis using a threshold for target strength in order to focus on striped bass-sized targets, and auxiliary sampling with nets to obtain species composition. We provide recommendations regarding survey design, based in part on simulations that provide insight on the level of effort that would be required to achieve reasonable estimates of abundance. Future surveys may be able to incorporate telemetry or other sonar techniques such as side-scan or multibeam in order to focus survey efforts on productive habitats (within lake and vertically). However, species apportionment will likely remain the main source of error, and we see no hydroacoustic system on the horizon that will identify fish by species at the spatial and temporal scale required for most reservoir surveys. In situations where species composition can be reliably assessed using traditional gears, abundance estimates from hydroacoustic methods should be useful to fishery managers interested in developing harvest regulations, assessing survival of stocked juveniles, identifying seasonal aggregations, and examining predator–prey balance.

  6. THE GHOSTS SURVEY. I. HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE ADVANCED CAMERA FOR SURVEYS DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radburn-Smith, D. J.; Dalcanton, J. J.; De Jong, R. S.; Streich, D.; Vlajic, M.; Seth, A. C.; Bailin, J.; Bell, E. F.; Brown, T. M.; Ferguson, H. C.; Goudfrooij, P.; Holfeltz, S.; Bullock, J. S.; Courteau, S.; Sick, J.; Holwerda, B. W.; Purcell, C.; Zucker, D. B.

    2011-01-01

    We present an overview of the GHOSTS survey, the largest study to date of the resolved stellar populations in the outskirts of disk galaxies. The sample consists of 14 disk galaxies within 17 Mpc, whose outer disks and halos are imaged with the Hubble Space Telescope Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). In the first paper of this series, we describe the sample, explore the benefits of using resolved stellar populations, and discuss our ACS F606W and F814W photometry. We use artificial star tests to assess completeness and use overlapping regions to estimate photometric uncertainties. The median depth of the survey at 50% completeness is 2.7 mag below the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB). We comprehensively explore and parameterize contamination from unresolved background galaxies and foreground stars using archival fields of high-redshift ACS observations. Left uncorrected, these would account for 10 0.65xF814W-19.0 detections per mag per arcsec 2 . We therefore identify several selection criteria that typically remove 95% of the contaminants. Even with these culls, background galaxies are a significant limitation to the surface brightness detection limit which, for this survey, is typically V ∼ 30 mag arcsec -2 . The resulting photometric catalogs are publicly available and contain some 3.1 million stars across 76 ACS fields, predominantly of low extinction. The uniform magnitudes of TRGB stars in these fields enable galaxy distance estimates with 2%-7% accuracy.

  7. Surveying Drifting Icebergs and Ice Islands: Deterioration Detection and Mass Estimation with Aerial Photogrammetry and Laser Scanning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna J. Crawford

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Icebergs and ice islands (large, tabular icebergs are challenging targets to survey due to their size, mobility, remote locations, and potentially difficult environmental conditions. Here, we assess the precision and utility of aerial photography surveying with structure-from-motion multi-view stereo photogrammetry processing (SfM and vessel-based terrestrial laser scanning (TLS for iceberg deterioration detection and mass estimation. For both techniques, we determine the minimum amount of change required to reliably resolve iceberg deterioration, the deterioration detection threshold (DDT, using triplicate surveys of two iceberg survey targets. We also calculate their relative uncertainties for iceberg mass estimation. The quality of deployed Global Positioning System (GPS units that were used for drift correction and scale assignment was a major determinant of point cloud precision. When dual-frequency GPS receivers were deployed, DDT values of 2.5 and 0.40 m were calculated for the TLS and SfM point clouds, respectively. In contrast, values of 6.6 and 3.4 m were calculated when tracking beacons with lower-quality GPS were used. The SfM dataset was also more precise when used for iceberg mass estimation, and we recommend further development of this technique for iceberg-related end-uses.

  8. Prevalence estimates of chronic kidney disease in Canada: results of a nationally representative survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Paul; Vasa, Priya; Brenner, Darren; Iglar, Karl; McFarlane, Phil; Morrison, Howard; Badawi, Alaa

    2013-01-01

    Background: Chronic kidney disease is an important risk factor for death and cardiovascular-related morbidity, but estimates to date of its prevalence in Canada have generally been extrapolated from the prevalence of end-stage renal disease. We used direct measures of kidney function collected from a nationally representative survey population to estimate the prevalence of chronic kidney disease among Canadian adults. Methods: We examined data for 3689 adult participants of cycle 1 of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2007–2009) for the presence of chronic kidney disease. We also calculated the age-standardized prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors by chronic kidney disease group. We cross-tabulated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with albuminuria status. Results: The prevalence of chronic kidney disease during the period 2007–2009 was 12.5%, representing about 3 million Canadian adults. The estimated prevalence of stage 3–5 disease was 3.1% (0.73 million adults) and albuminuria 10.3% (2.4 million adults). The prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hypertriglyceridemia were all significantly higher among adults with chronic kidney disease than among those without it. The prevalence of albuminuria was high, even among those whose eGFR was 90 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or greater (10.1%) and those without diabetes or hypertension (9.3%). Awareness of kidney dysfunction among adults with stage 3–5 chronic kidney disease was low (12.0%). Interpretation: The prevalence of kidney dysfunction was substantial in the survey population, including individuals without hypertension or diabetes, conditions most likely to prompt screening for kidney dysfunction. These findings highlight the potential for missed opportunities for early intervention and secondary prevention of chronic kidney disease. PMID:23649413

  9. A sampling strategy for estimating plot average annual fluxes of chemical elements from forest soils

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.; Vries, de W.

    2010-01-01

    A sampling strategy for estimating spatially averaged annual element leaching fluxes from forest soils is presented and tested in three Dutch forest monitoring plots. In this method sampling locations and times (days) are selected by probability sampling. Sampling locations were selected by

  10. Method for estimating modulation transfer function from sample images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saiga, Rino; Takeuchi, Akihisa; Uesugi, Kentaro; Terada, Yasuko; Suzuki, Yoshio; Mizutani, Ryuta

    2018-02-01

    The modulation transfer function (MTF) represents the frequency domain response of imaging modalities. Here, we report a method for estimating the MTF from sample images. Test images were generated from a number of images, including those taken with an electron microscope and with an observation satellite. These original images were convolved with point spread functions (PSFs) including those of circular apertures. The resultant test images were subjected to a Fourier transformation. The logarithm of the squared norm of the Fourier transform was plotted against the squared distance from the origin. Linear correlations were observed in the logarithmic plots, indicating that the PSF of the test images can be approximated with a Gaussian. The MTF was then calculated from the Gaussian-approximated PSF. The obtained MTF closely coincided with the MTF predicted from the original PSF. The MTF of an x-ray microtomographic section of a fly brain was also estimated with this method. The obtained MTF showed good agreement with the MTF determined from an edge profile of an aluminum test object. We suggest that this approach is an alternative way of estimating the MTF, independently of the image type. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A novel recursive Fourier transform for nonuniform sampled signals: application to heart rate variability spectrum estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Alexander; Aboy, Mateo

    2009-07-01

    We present a novel method to iteratively calculate discrete Fourier transforms for discrete time signals with sample time intervals that may be widely nonuniform. The proposed recursive Fourier transform (RFT) does not require interpolation of the samples to uniform time intervals, and each iterative transform update of N frequencies has computational order N. Because of the inherent non-uniformity in the time between successive heart beats, an application particularly well suited for this transform is power spectral density (PSD) estimation for heart rate variability. We compare RFT based spectrum estimation with Lomb-Scargle Transform (LST) based estimation. PSD estimation based on the LST also does not require uniform time samples, but the LST has a computational order greater than Nlog(N). We conducted an assessment study involving the analysis of quasi-stationary signals with various levels of randomly missing heart beats. Our results indicate that the RFT leads to comparable estimation performance to the LST with significantly less computational overhead and complexity for applications requiring iterative spectrum estimations.

  12. Estimation of salt intake from spot urine samples in patients with chronic kidney disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ogura Makoto

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High salt intake in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD may cause high blood pressure and increased albuminuria. Although, the estimation of salt intake is essential, there are no easy methods to estimate real salt intake. Methods Salt intake was assessed by determining urinary sodium excretion from the collected urine samples. Estimation of salt intake by spot urine was calculated by Tanaka’s formula. The correlation between estimated and measured sodium excretion was evaluated by Pearson´s correlation coefficients. Performance of equation was estimated by median bias, interquartile range (IQR, proportion of estimates within 30% deviation of measured sodium excretion (P30 and root mean square error (RMSE.The sensitivity and specificity of estimated against measured sodium excretion were separately assessed by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC curves. Results A total of 334 urine samples from 96 patients were examined. Mean age was 58 ± 16 years, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR was 53 ± 27 mL/min. Among these patients, 35 had CKD stage 1 or 2, 39 had stage 3, and 22 had stage 4 or 5. Estimated sodium excretion significantly correlated with measured sodium excretion (R = 0.52, P 170 mEq/day (AUC 0.835. Conclusions The present study demonstrated that spot urine can be used to estimate sodium excretion, especially in patients with low eGFR.

  13. A survey of kernel-type estimators for copula and their applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumarjaya, I. W.

    2017-10-01

    Copulas have been widely used to model nonlinear dependence structure. Main applications of copulas include areas such as finance, insurance, hydrology, rainfall to name but a few. The flexibility of copula allows researchers to model dependence structure beyond Gaussian distribution. Basically, a copula is a function that couples multivariate distribution functions to their one-dimensional marginal distribution functions. In general, there are three methods to estimate copula. These are parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric method. In this article we survey kernel-type estimators for copula such as mirror reflection kernel, beta kernel, transformation method and local likelihood transformation method. Then, we apply these kernel methods to three stock indexes in Asia. The results of our analysis suggest that, albeit variation in information criterion values, the local likelihood transformation method performs better than the other kernel methods.

  14. CONTAMINATED SOIL VOLUME ESTIMATE TRACKING METHODOLOGY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durham, L.A.; Johnson, R.L.; Rieman, C.; Kenna, T.; Pilon, R.

    2003-01-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is conducting a cleanup of radiologically contaminated properties under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The largest cost element for most of the FUSRAP sites is the transportation and disposal of contaminated soil. Project managers and engineers need an estimate of the volume of contaminated soil to determine project costs and schedule. Once excavation activities begin and additional remedial action data are collected, the actual quantity of contaminated soil often deviates from the original estimate, resulting in cost and schedule impacts to the project. The project costs and schedule need to be frequently updated by tracking the actual quantities of excavated soil and contaminated soil remaining during the life of a remedial action project. A soil volume estimate tracking methodology was developed to provide a mechanism for project managers and engineers to create better project controls of costs and schedule. For the FUSRAP Linde site, an estimate of the initial volume of in situ soil above the specified cleanup guidelines was calculated on the basis of discrete soil sample data and other relevant data using indicator geostatistical techniques combined with Bayesian analysis. During the remedial action, updated volume estimates of remaining in situ soils requiring excavation were calculated on a periodic basis. In addition to taking into account the volume of soil that had been excavated, the updated volume estimates incorporated both new gamma walkover surveys and discrete sample data collected as part of the remedial action. A civil survey company provided periodic estimates of actual in situ excavated soil volumes. By using the results from the civil survey of actual in situ volumes excavated and the updated estimate of the remaining volume of contaminated soil requiring excavation, the USACE Buffalo District was able to forecast and update project costs and schedule. The soil volume

  15. Automated CBED processing: Sample thickness estimation based on analysis of zone-axis CBED pattern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klinger, M., E-mail: klinger@post.cz; Němec, M.; Polívka, L.; Gärtnerová, V.; Jäger, A.

    2015-03-15

    An automated processing of convergent beam electron diffraction (CBED) patterns is presented. The proposed methods are used in an automated tool for estimating the thickness of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) samples by matching an experimental zone-axis CBED pattern with a series of patterns simulated for known thicknesses. The proposed tool detects CBED disks, localizes a pattern in detected disks and unifies the coordinate system of the experimental pattern with the simulated one. The experimental pattern is then compared disk-by-disk with a series of simulated patterns each corresponding to different known thicknesses. The thickness of the most similar simulated pattern is then taken as the thickness estimate. The tool was tested on [0 1 1] Si, [0 1 0] α-Ti and [0 1 1] α-Ti samples prepared using different techniques. Results of the presented approach were compared with thickness estimates based on analysis of CBED patterns in two beam conditions. The mean difference between these two methods was 4.1% for the FIB-prepared silicon samples, 5.2% for the electro-chemically polished titanium and 7.9% for Ar{sup +} ion-polished titanium. The proposed techniques can also be employed in other established CBED analyses. Apart from the thickness estimation, it can potentially be used to quantify lattice deformation, structure factors, symmetry, defects or extinction distance. - Highlights: • Automated TEM sample thickness estimation using zone-axis CBED is presented. • Computer vision and artificial intelligence are employed in CBED processing. • This approach reduces operator effort, analysis time and increases repeatability. • Individual parts can be employed in other analyses of CBED/diffraction pattern.

  16. Photometric redshifts for the next generation of deep radio continuum surveys - II. Gaussian processes and hybrid estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Kenneth J.; Jarvis, Matt J.; Brown, Michael J. I.; Röttgering, Huub J. A.

    2018-04-01

    Building on the first paper in this series (Duncan et al. 2018), we present a study investigating the performance of Gaussian process photometric redshift (photo-z) estimates for galaxies and active galactic nuclei detected in deep radio continuum surveys. A Gaussian process redshift code is used to produce photo-z estimates targeting specific subsets of both the AGN population - infrared, X-ray and optically selected AGN - and the general galaxy population. The new estimates for the AGN population are found to perform significantly better at z > 1 than the template-based photo-z estimates presented in our previous study. Our new photo-z estimates are then combined with template estimates through hierarchical Bayesian combination to produce a hybrid consensus estimate that outperforms both of the individual methods across all source types. Photo-z estimates for radio sources that are X-ray sources or optical/IR AGN are significantly improved in comparison to previous template-only estimates - with outlier fractions and robust scatter reduced by up to a factor of ˜4. The ability of our method to combine the strengths of the two input photo-z techniques and the large improvements we observe illustrate its potential for enabling future exploitation of deep radio continuum surveys for both the study of galaxy and black hole co-evolution and for cosmological studies.

  17. Temporally stratified sampling programs for estimation of fish impingement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, K.D.; Griffith, J.S.

    1977-01-01

    Impingement monitoring programs often expend valuable and limited resources and fail to provide a dependable estimate of either total annual impingement or those biological and physicochemical factors affecting impingement. In situations where initial monitoring has identified ''problem'' fish species and the periodicity of their impingement, intensive sampling during periods of high impingement will maximize information obtained. We use data gathered at two nuclear generating facilities in the southeastern United States to discuss techniques of designing such temporally stratified monitoring programs and their benefits and drawbacks. Of the possible temporal patterns in environmental factors within a calendar year, differences among seasons are most influential in the impingement of freshwater fishes in the Southeast. Data on the threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense) and the role of seasonal temperature changes are utilized as an example to demonstrate ways of most efficiently and accurately estimating impingement of the species

  18. Reliable Quantification of the Potential for Equations Based on Spot Urine Samples to Estimate Population Salt Intake

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Liping; Crino, Michelle; Wu, Jason Hy

    2016-01-01

    to a standard format. Individual participant records will be compiled and a series of analyses will be completed to: (1) compare existing equations for estimating 24-hour salt intake from spot urine samples with 24-hour urine samples, and assess the degree of bias according to key demographic and clinical......BACKGROUND: Methods based on spot urine samples (a single sample at one time-point) have been identified as a possible alternative approach to 24-hour urine samples for determining mean population salt intake. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to identify a reliable method for estimating mean...... population salt intake from spot urine samples. This will be done by comparing the performance of existing equations against one other and against estimates derived from 24-hour urine samples. The effects of factors such as ethnicity, sex, age, body mass index, antihypertensive drug use, health status...

  19. B-graph sampling to estimate the size of a hidden population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spreen, M.; Bogaerts, S.

    2015-01-01

    Link-tracing designs are often used to estimate the size of hidden populations by utilizing the relational links between their members. A major problem in studies of hidden populations is the lack of a convenient sampling frame. The most frequently applied design in studies of hidden populations is

  20. The association of estimated salt intake with blood pressure in a Viet Nam national survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul N Jensen

    Full Text Available To evaluate the association of salt consumption with blood pressure in Viet Nam, a developing country with a high level of salt consumption.Analysis of a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese adults 25-65 years of age who were surveyed using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance protocol. Participants who reported acute illness, pregnancy, or current use of antihypertensive medications were excluded. Daily salt consumption was estimated from fasting mid-morning spot urine samples. Associations of salt consumption with systolic blood pressure and prevalent hypertension were assessed using adjusted linear and generalized linear models. Interaction terms were tested to assess differences by age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and rural/urban status.The analysis included 2,333 participants (mean age: 37 years, 46% male, 33% urban. The average estimated salt consumption was 10g/day. No associations of salt consumption with blood pressure or prevalent hypertension were observed at a national scale in men or women. The associations did not differ in subgroups defined by age, smoking, or alcohol consumption; however, associations differed between urban and rural participants (p-value for interaction of urban/rural status with salt consumption, p = 0.02, suggesting that higher salt consumption may be associated with higher systolic blood pressure in urban residents but lower systolic blood pressure in rural residents.Although there was no evidence of an association at a national level, associations of salt consumption with blood pressure differed between urban and rural residents in Viet Nam. The reasons for this differential association are not clear, and given the large rate of rural to urban migration experienced in Viet Nam, this topic warrants further investigation.

  1. The association of estimated salt intake with blood pressure in a Viet Nam national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Paul N; Bao, Tran Quoc; Huong, Tran Thi Thanh; Heckbert, Susan R; Fitzpatrick, Annette L; LoGerfo, James P; Ngoc, Truong Le Van; Mokdad, Ali H

    2018-01-01

    To evaluate the association of salt consumption with blood pressure in Viet Nam, a developing country with a high level of salt consumption. Analysis of a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese adults 25-65 years of age who were surveyed using the World Health Organization STEPwise approach to Surveillance protocol. Participants who reported acute illness, pregnancy, or current use of antihypertensive medications were excluded. Daily salt consumption was estimated from fasting mid-morning spot urine samples. Associations of salt consumption with systolic blood pressure and prevalent hypertension were assessed using adjusted linear and generalized linear models. Interaction terms were tested to assess differences by age, smoking, alcohol consumption, and rural/urban status. The analysis included 2,333 participants (mean age: 37 years, 46% male, 33% urban). The average estimated salt consumption was 10g/day. No associations of salt consumption with blood pressure or prevalent hypertension were observed at a national scale in men or women. The associations did not differ in subgroups defined by age, smoking, or alcohol consumption; however, associations differed between urban and rural participants (p-value for interaction of urban/rural status with salt consumption, p = 0.02), suggesting that higher salt consumption may be associated with higher systolic blood pressure in urban residents but lower systolic blood pressure in rural residents. Although there was no evidence of an association at a national level, associations of salt consumption with blood pressure differed between urban and rural residents in Viet Nam. The reasons for this differential association are not clear, and given the large rate of rural to urban migration experienced in Viet Nam, this topic warrants further investigation.

  2. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. Methods The first Korean Farmers’ Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. Logistic regression was performed to identify the relationship between the prevalence of agricultural injuries and the general characteristics of the study population. Results We estimated that 3.2% (±0.00) of Korean farmers suffered agricultural injuries that required an absence of more than 4 days. The injury rates among orchard farmers (5.4 ± 0.00) were higher those of all non-orchard farmers. The odds ratio (OR) for agricultural injuries was significantly lower in females (OR: 0.45, 95% CI = 0.45–0.45) compared to males. However, the odds of injury among farmers aged 50–59 (OR: 1.53, 95% CI = 1.46–1.60), 60–69 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.39–1.51), and ≥70 (OR: 1.94, 95% CI = 1.86–2.02) were significantly higher compared to those younger than 50. In addition, the total number of years farmed, average number of months per year of farming, and average hours per day of farming were significantly associated with agricultural injuries. Conclusions Agricultural injury rates in this study were higher than rates reported by the existing compensation insurance data. Males and older farmers were at a greater risk of agriculture injuries; therefore, the prevention and management of agricultural injuries in this population is required. PMID:24808945

  3. Estimated rate of agricultural injury: the Korean Farmers' Occupational Disease and Injury Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chae, Hyeseon; Min, Kyungdoo; Youn, Kanwoo; Park, Jinwoo; Kim, Kyungran; Kim, Hyocher; Lee, Kyungsuk

    2014-01-01

    This study estimated the rate of agricultural injury using a nationwide survey and identified factors associated with these injuries. The first Korean Farmers' Occupational Disease and Injury Survey (KFODIS) was conducted by the Rural Development Administration in 2009. Data from 9,630 adults were collected through a household survey about agricultural injuries suffered in 2008. We estimated the injury rates among those whose injury required an absence of more than 4 days. Logistic regression was performed to identify the relationship between the prevalence of agricultural injuries and the general characteristics of the study population. We estimated that 3.2% (±0.00) of Korean farmers suffered agricultural injuries that required an absence of more than 4 days. The injury rates among orchard farmers (5.4 ± 0.00) were higher those of all non-orchard farmers. The odds ratio (OR) for agricultural injuries was significantly lower in females (OR: 0.45, 95% CI = 0.45-0.45) compared to males. However, the odds of injury among farmers aged 50-59 (OR: 1.53, 95% CI = 1.46-1.60), 60-69 (OR: 1.45, 95% CI = 1.39-1.51), and ≥70 (OR: 1.94, 95% CI = 1.86-2.02) were significantly higher compared to those younger than 50. In addition, the total number of years farmed, average number of months per year of farming, and average hours per day of farming were significantly associated with agricultural injuries. Agricultural injury rates in this study were higher than rates reported by the existing compensation insurance data. Males and older farmers were at a greater risk of agriculture injuries; therefore, the prevention and management of agricultural injuries in this population is required.

  4. Sample representativeness verification of the FADN CZ farm business sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Prášilová

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Sample representativeness verification is one of the key stages of statistical work. After having joined the European Union the Czech Republic joined also the Farm Accountancy Data Network system of the Union. This is a sample of bodies and companies doing business in agriculture. Detailed production and economic data on the results of farming business are collected from that sample annually and results for the entire population of the country´s farms are then estimated and assessed. It is important hence, that the sample be representative. Representativeness is to be assessed as to the number of farms included in the survey and also as to the degree of accordance of the measures and indices as related to the population. The paper deals with the special statistical techniques and methods of the FADN CZ sample representativeness verification including the necessary sample size statement procedure. The Czech farm population data have been obtained from the Czech Statistical Office data bank.

  5. An evaluation of soil sampling for 137Cs using various field-sampling volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyhan, J W; White, G C; Schofield, T G; Trujillo, G

    1983-05-01

    The sediments from a liquid effluent receiving area at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and soils from an intensive study area in the fallout pathway of Trinity were sampled for 137Cs using 25-, 500-, 2500- and 12,500-cm3 field sampling volumes. A highly replicated sampling program was used to determine mean concentrations and inventories of 137Cs at each site, as well as estimates of spatial, aliquoting, and counting variance components of the radionuclide data. The sampling methods were also analyzed as a function of soil size fractions collected in each field sampling volume and of the total cost of the program for a given variation in the radionuclide survey results. Coefficients of variation (CV) of 137Cs inventory estimates ranged from 0.063 to 0.14 for Mortandad Canyon sediments, whereas CV values for Trinity soils were observed from 0.38 to 0.57. Spatial variance components of 137Cs concentration data were usually found to be larger than either the aliquoting or counting variance estimates and were inversely related to field sampling volume at the Trinity intensive site. Subsequent optimization studies of the sampling schemes demonstrated that each aliquot should be counted once, and that only 2-4 aliquots out of as many as 30 collected need be assayed for 137Cs. The optimization studies showed that as sample costs increased to 45 man-hours of labor per sample, the variance of the mean 137Cs concentration decreased dramatically, but decreased very little with additional labor.

  6. Automatic sampling for unbiased and efficient stereological estimation using the proportionator in biological studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gardi, Jonathan Eyal; Nyengaard, Jens Randel; Gundersen, Hans Jørgen Gottlieb

    2008-01-01

    Quantification of tissue properties is improved using the general proportionator sampling and estimation procedure: automatic image analysis and non-uniform sampling with probability proportional to size (PPS). The complete region of interest is partitioned into fields of view, and every field...... of view is given a weight (the size) proportional to the total amount of requested image analysis features in it. The fields of view sampled with known probabilities proportional to individual weight are the only ones seen by the observer who provides the correct count. Even though the image analysis...... cerebellum, total number of orexin positive neurons in transgenic mice brain, and estimating the absolute area and the areal fraction of β islet cells in dog pancreas.  The proportionator was at least eight times more efficient (precision and time combined) than traditional computer controlled sampling....

  7. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boessenkool, Berry; Bürger, Gerd; Heistermann, Maik

    2017-09-01

    High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  8. Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Boessenkool

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.

  9. Identification of continuous-time systems from samples of input ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. This paper presents an introductory survey of the methods that have been developed for identification of continuous-time systems from samples of input±output data. The two basic approaches may be described as (i) the indirect method, where first a discrete-time model is estimated from the sampled data and then ...

  10. Shorlist Masterplan Wind. Evaluation of the sampling grid of the year-round ichthyoplankton survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolle, L.J.; Beek, van J.K.L.

    2011-01-01

    Within the research programme 'Shortlist Masterplan Wind' a year-round ichthyoplankton survey is being carried out. The sampling area is based on known spawning concentrations and prevailing currents.

  11. Evaluating the accuracy of sampling to estimate central line-days: simplification of the National Healthcare Safety Network surveillance methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Nicola D; Edwards, Jonathan R; Bamberg, Wendy; Beldavs, Zintars G; Dumyati, Ghinwa; Godine, Deborah; Maloney, Meghan; Kainer, Marion; Ray, Susan; Thompson, Deborah; Wilson, Lucy; Magill, Shelley S

    2013-03-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of weekly sampling of central line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI) denominator data to estimate central line-days (CLDs). Obtained CLABSI denominator logs showing daily counts of patient-days and CLD for 6-12 consecutive months from participants and CLABSI numerators and facility and location characteristics from the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN). Convenience sample of 119 inpatient locations in 63 acute care facilities within 9 states participating in the Emerging Infections Program. Actual CLD and estimated CLD obtained from sampling denominator data on all single-day and 2-day (day-pair) samples were compared by assessing the distributions of the CLD percentage error. Facility and location characteristics associated with increased precision of estimated CLD were assessed. The impact of using estimated CLD to calculate CLABSI rates was evaluated by measuring the change in CLABSI decile ranking. The distribution of CLD percentage error varied by the day and number of days sampled. On average, day-pair samples provided more accurate estimates than did single-day samples. For several day-pair samples, approximately 90% of locations had CLD percentage error of less than or equal to ±5%. A lower number of CLD per month was most significantly associated with poor precision in estimated CLD. Most locations experienced no change in CLABSI decile ranking, and no location's CLABSI ranking changed by more than 2 deciles. Sampling to obtain estimated CLD is a valid alternative to daily data collection for a large proportion of locations. Development of a sampling guideline for NHSN users is underway.

  12. Procedure manual for the estimation of average indoor radon-daughter concentrations using the radon grab-sampling method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    George, J.L.

    1986-04-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Remedial Action and Waste Technology established the Technical Measurements Center to provide standardization, calibration, comparability, verification of data, quality assurance, and cost-effectiveness for the measurement requirements of DOE remedial action programs. One of the remedial-action measurement needs is the estimation of average indoor radon-daughter concentration. One method for accomplishing such estimations in support of DOE remedial action programs is the radon grab-sampling method. This manual describes procedures for radon grab sampling, with the application specifically directed to the estimation of average indoor radon-daughter concentration (RDC) in highly ventilated structures. This particular application of the measurement method is for cases where RDC estimates derived from long-term integrated measurements under occupied conditions are below the standard and where the structure being evaluated is considered to be highly ventilated. The radon grab-sampling method requires that sampling be conducted under standard maximized conditions. Briefly, the procedure for radon grab sampling involves the following steps: selection of sampling and counting equipment; sample acquisition and processing, including data reduction; calibration of equipment, including provisions to correct for pressure effects when sampling at various elevations; and incorporation of quality-control and assurance measures. This manual describes each of the above steps in detail and presents an example of a step-by-step radon grab-sampling procedure using a scintillation cell

  13. Reliability of different sampling densities for estimating and mapping lichen diversity in biomonitoring studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferretti, M.; Brambilla, E.; Brunialti, G.; Fornasier, F.; Mazzali, C.; Giordani, P.; Nimis, P.L.

    2004-01-01

    Sampling requirements related to lichen biomonitoring include optimal sampling density for obtaining precise and unbiased estimates of population parameters and maps of known reliability. Two available datasets on a sub-national scale in Italy were used to determine a cost-effective sampling density to be adopted in medium-to-large-scale biomonitoring studies. As expected, the relative error in the mean Lichen Biodiversity (Italian acronym: BL) values and the error associated with the interpolation of BL values for (unmeasured) grid cells increased as the sampling density decreased. However, the increase in size of the error was not linear and even a considerable reduction (up to 50%) in the original sampling effort led to a far smaller increase in errors in the mean estimates (<6%) and in mapping (<18%) as compared with the original sampling densities. A reduction in the sampling effort can result in considerable savings of resources, which can then be used for a more detailed investigation of potentially problematic areas. It is, however, necessary to decide the acceptable level of precision at the design stage of the investigation, so as to select the proper sampling density. - An acceptable level of precision must be decided before determining a sampling design

  14. Estimates of Inequality Indices Based on Simple Random, Ranked Set, and Systematic Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    Bansal, Pooja; Arora, Sangeeta; Mahajan, Kalpana K.

    2013-01-01

    Gini index, Bonferroni index, and Absolute Lorenz index are some popular indices of inequality showing different features of inequality measurement. In general simple random sampling procedure is commonly used to estimate the inequality indices and their related inference. The key condition that the samples must be drawn via simple random sampling procedure though makes calculations much simpler but this assumption is often violated in practice as the data does not always yield simple random ...

  15. Time delay estimation in a reverberant environment by low rate sampling of impulsive acoustic sources

    KAUST Repository

    Omer, Muhammad

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a new method of time delay estimation (TDE) using low sample rates of an impulsive acoustic source in a room environment. The proposed method finds the time delay from the room impulse response (RIR) which makes it robust against room reverberations. The RIR is considered a sparse phenomenon and a recently proposed sparse signal reconstruction technique called orthogonal clustering (OC) is utilized for its estimation from the low rate sampled received signal. The arrival time of the direct path signal at a pair of microphones is identified from the estimated RIR and their difference yields the desired time delay. Low sampling rates reduce the hardware and computational complexity and decrease the communication between the microphones and the centralized location. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by numerical simulations and experimental results. © 2012 IEEE.

  16. The efficacy of respondent-driven sampling for the health assessment of minority populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badowski, Grazyna; Somera, Lilnabeth P; Simsiman, Brayan; Lee, Hye-Ryeon; Cassel, Kevin; Yamanaka, Alisha; Ren, JunHao

    2017-10-01

    Respondent driven sampling (RDS) is a relatively new network sampling technique typically employed for hard-to-reach populations. Like snowball sampling, initial respondents or "seeds" recruit additional respondents from their network of friends. Under certain assumptions, the method promises to produce a sample independent from the biases that may have been introduced by the non-random choice of "seeds." We conducted a survey on health communication in Guam's general population using the RDS method, the first survey that has utilized this methodology in Guam. It was conducted in hopes of identifying a cost-efficient non-probability sampling strategy that could generate reasonable population estimates for both minority and general populations. RDS data was collected in Guam in 2013 (n=511) and population estimates were compared with 2012 BRFSS data (n=2031) and the 2010 census data. The estimates were calculated using the unweighted RDS sample and the weighted sample using RDS inference methods and compared with known population characteristics. The sample size was reached in 23days, providing evidence that the RDS method is a viable, cost-effective data collection method, which can provide reasonable population estimates. However, the results also suggest that the RDS inference methods used to reduce bias, based on self-reported estimates of network sizes, may not always work. Caution is needed when interpreting RDS study findings. For a more diverse sample, data collection should not be conducted in just one location. Fewer questions about network estimates should be asked, and more careful consideration should be given to the kind of incentives offered to participants. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Clinical usefulness of limited sampling strategies for estimating AUC of proton pump inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niioka, Takenori

    2011-03-01

    Cytochrome P450 (CYP) 2C19 (CYP2C19) genotype is regarded as a useful tool to predict area under the blood concentration-time curve (AUC) of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs). In our results, however, CYP2C19 genotypes had no influence on AUC of all PPIs during fluvoxamine treatment. These findings suggest that CYP2C19 genotyping is not always a good indicator for estimating AUC of PPIs. Limited sampling strategies (LSS) were developed to estimate AUC simply and accurately. It is important to minimize the number of blood samples because of patient's acceptance. This article reviewed the usefulness of LSS for estimating AUC of three PPIs (omeprazole: OPZ, lansoprazole: LPZ and rabeprazole: RPZ). The best prediction formulas in each PPI were AUC(OPZ)=9.24 x C(6h)+2638.03, AUC(LPZ)=12.32 x C(6h)+3276.09 and AUC(RPZ)=1.39 x C(3h)+7.17 x C(6h)+344.14, respectively. In order to optimize the sampling strategy of LPZ, we tried to establish LSS for LPZ using a time point within 3 hours through the property of pharmacokinetics of its enantiomers. The best prediction formula using the fewest sampling points (one point) was AUC(racemic LPZ)=6.5 x C(3h) of (R)-LPZ+13.7 x C(3h) of (S)-LPZ-9917.3 x G1-14387.2×G2+7103.6 (G1: homozygous extensive metabolizer is 1 and the other genotypes are 0; G2: heterozygous extensive metabolizer is 1 and the other genotypes are 0). Those strategies, plasma concentration monitoring at one or two time-points, might be more suitable for AUC estimation than reference to CYP2C19 genotypes, particularly in the case of coadministration of CYP mediators.

  18. A model for estimating the minimum number of offspring to sample in studies of reproductive success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Joseph H; Ward, Eric J; Carlson, Stephanie M

    2011-01-01

    Molecular parentage permits studies of selection and evolution in fecund species with cryptic mating systems, such as fish, amphibians, and insects. However, there exists no method for estimating the number of offspring that must be assigned parentage to achieve robust estimates of reproductive success when only a fraction of offspring can be sampled. We constructed a 2-stage model that first estimated the mean (μ) and variance (v) in reproductive success from published studies on salmonid fishes and then sampled offspring from reproductive success distributions simulated from the μ and v estimates. Results provided strong support for modeling salmonid reproductive success via the negative binomial distribution and suggested that few offspring samples are needed to reject the null hypothesis of uniform offspring production. However, the sampled reproductive success distributions deviated significantly (χ(2) goodness-of-fit test p value reproductive success distribution at rates often >0.05 and as high as 0.24, even when hundreds of offspring were assigned parentage. In general, reproductive success patterns were less accurate when offspring were sampled from cohorts with larger numbers of parents and greater variance in reproductive success. Our model can be reparameterized with data from other species and will aid researchers in planning reproductive success studies by providing explicit sampling targets required to accurately assess reproductive success.

  19. Non-parametric adaptive importance sampling for the probability estimation of a launcher impact position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morio, Jerome

    2011-01-01

    Importance sampling (IS) is a useful simulation technique to estimate critical probability with a better accuracy than Monte Carlo methods. It consists in generating random weighted samples from an auxiliary distribution rather than the distribution of interest. The crucial part of this algorithm is the choice of an efficient auxiliary PDF that has to be able to simulate more rare random events. The optimisation of this auxiliary distribution is often in practice very difficult. In this article, we propose to approach the IS optimal auxiliary density with non-parametric adaptive importance sampling (NAIS). We apply this technique for the probability estimation of spatial launcher impact position since it has currently become a more and more important issue in the field of aeronautics.

  20. Reef-associated crustacean fauna: biodiversity estimates using semi-quantitative sampling and DNA barcoding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaisance, L.; Knowlton, N.; Paulay, G.; Meyer, C.

    2009-12-01

    The cryptofauna associated with coral reefs accounts for a major part of the biodiversity in these ecosystems but has been largely overlooked in biodiversity estimates because the organisms are hard to collect and identify. We combine a semi-quantitative sampling design and a DNA barcoding approach to provide metrics for the diversity of reef-associated crustacean. Twenty-two similar-sized dead heads of Pocillopora were sampled at 10 m depth from five central Pacific Ocean localities (four atolls in the Northern Line Islands and in Moorea, French Polynesia). All crustaceans were removed, and partial cytochrome oxidase subunit I was sequenced from 403 individuals, yielding 135 distinct taxa using a species-level criterion of 5% similarity. Most crustacean species were rare; 44% of the OTUs were represented by a single individual, and an additional 33% were represented by several specimens found only in one of the five localities. The Northern Line Islands and Moorea shared only 11 OTUs. Total numbers estimated by species richness statistics (Chao1 and ACE) suggest at least 90 species of crustaceans in Moorea and 150 in the Northern Line Islands for this habitat type. However, rarefaction curves for each region failed to approach an asymptote, and Chao1 and ACE estimators did not stabilize after sampling eight heads in Moorea, so even these diversity figures are underestimates. Nevertheless, even this modest sampling effort from a very limited habitat resulted in surprisingly high species numbers.

  1. Problems with sampling desert tortoises: A simulation analysis based on field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freilich, J.E.; Camp, R.J.; Duda, J.J.; Karl, A.E.

    2005-01-01

    The desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) was listed as a U.S. threatened species in 1990 based largely on population declines inferred from mark-recapture surveys of 2.59-km2 (1-mi2) plots. Since then, several census methods have been proposed and tested, but all methods still pose logistical or statistical difficulties. We conducted computer simulations using actual tortoise location data from 2 1-mi2 plot surveys in southern California, USA, to identify strengths and weaknesses of current sampling strategies. We considered tortoise population estimates based on these plots as "truth" and then tested various sampling methods based on sampling smaller plots or transect lines passing through the mile squares. Data were analyzed using Schnabel's mark-recapture estimate and program CAPTURE. Experimental subsampling with replacement of the 1-mi2 data using 1-km2 and 0.25-km2 plot boundaries produced data sets of smaller plot sizes, which we compared to estimates from the 1-mi 2 plots. We also tested distance sampling by saturating a 1-mi 2 site with computer simulated transect lines, once again evaluating bias in density estimates. Subsampling estimates from 1-km2 plots did not differ significantly from the estimates derived at 1-mi2. The 0.25-km2 subsamples significantly overestimated population sizes, chiefly because too few recaptures were made. Distance sampling simulations were biased 80% of the time and had high coefficient of variation to density ratios. Furthermore, a prospective power analysis suggested limited ability to detect population declines as high as 50%. We concluded that poor performance and bias of both sampling procedures was driven by insufficient sample size, suggesting that all efforts must be directed to increasing numbers found in order to produce reliable results. Our results suggest that present methods may not be capable of accurately estimating desert tortoise populations.

  2. Point and Fixed Plot Sampling Inventory Estimates at the Savannah River Site, South Carolina.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parresol, Bernard, R.

    2004-02-01

    This report provides calculation of systematic point sampling volume estimates for trees greater than or equal to 5 inches diameter breast height (dbh) and fixed radius plot volume estimates for trees < 5 inches dbh at the Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken County, South Carolina. The inventory of 622 plots was started in March 1999 and completed in January 2002 (Figure 1). Estimates are given in cubic foot volume. The analyses are presented in a series of Tables and Figures. In addition, a preliminary analysis of fuel levels on the SRS is given, based on depth measurements of the duff and litter layers on the 622 inventory plots plus line transect samples of down coarse woody material. Potential standing live fuels are also included. The fuels analyses are presented in a series of tables.

  3. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  4. Comparison and assessment of aerial and ground estimates of waterbird colonies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, M.C.; Luent, M.C.; Michot, T.C.; Jeske, C.W.; Leberg, P.L.

    2008-01-01

    Aerial surveys are often used to quantify sizes of waterbird colonies; however, these surveys would benefit from a better understanding of associated biases. We compared estimates of breeding pairs of waterbirds, in colonies across southern Louisiana, USA, made from the ground, fixed-wing aircraft, and a helicopter. We used a marked-subsample method for ground-counting colonies to obtain estimates of error and visibility bias. We made comparisons over 2 sampling periods: 1) surveys conducted on the same colonies using all 3 methods during 3-11 May 2005 and 2) an expanded fixed-wing and ground-survey comparison conducted over 4 periods (May and Jun, 2004-2005). Estimates from fixed-wing aircraft were approximately 65% higher than those from ground counts for overall estimated number of breeding pairs and for both dark and white-plumaged species. The coefficient of determination between estimates based on ground and fixed-wing aircraft was ???0.40 for most species, and based on the assumption that estimates from the ground were closer to the true count, fixed-wing aerial surveys appeared to overestimate numbers of nesting birds of some species; this bias often increased with the size of the colony. Unlike estimates from fixed-wing aircraft, numbers of nesting pairs made from ground and helicopter surveys were very similar for all species we observed. Ground counts by one observer resulted in underestimated number of breeding pairs by 20% on average. The marked-subsample method provided an estimate of the number of missed nests as well as an estimate of precision. These estimates represent a major advantage of marked-subsample ground counts over aerial methods; however, ground counts are difficult in large or remote colonies. Helicopter surveys and ground counts provide less biased, more precise estimates of breeding pairs than do surveys made from fixed-wing aircraft. We recommend managers employ ground counts using double observers for surveying waterbird colonies

  5. Estimation of urban residential electricity demand in China using household survey data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Shaojie; Teng, Fei

    2013-01-01

    This paper uses annual urban household survey data of Sichuan Province from 2007 to 2009 to estimate the income and price elasticities of residential electricity demand, along with the effects of lifestyle-related variables. The empirical results show that in the urban area of Sichuan province, the residential electricity demand is price- and income-inelastic, with price and income elasticities ranging from −0.35 to −0.50 and from 0.14 to 0.33, respectively. Such lifestyle-related variables as demographic variables, dwelling size and holdings of home appliances, are also important determinants of residential electricity demand, especially the latter. These results are robust to a variety of sensitivity tests. The research findings imply that urban residential electricity demand continues to increase with the growth of income. The empirical results have important policy implications for the Multistep Electricity Price, which been adopted in some cities and is expected to be promoted nationwide through the installation of energy-efficient home appliances. - Highlights: • We estimate price and income elasticities in China using household survey data. • The current study is the first such study in China at this level. • Both price and income are inelastic. • Behavior factors have important impact on electricity consumption

  6. The K giant stars from the LAMOST survey data. I. Identification, metallicity, and distance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Chao; Deng, Li-Cai; Li, Jing; Gao, Shuang; Yang, Fan; Xu, Yan; Zhang, Yue-Yang; Xin, Yu; Wu, Yue [Key Laboratory of Optical Astronomy, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Datun Road 20A, Beijing 100012 (China); Carlin, Jeffrey L.; Newberg, Heidi Jo [Department of Physics, Applied Physics and Astronomy, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th Street, Troy, NY 12180 (United States); Smith, Martin C. [Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 80 Nandan Road, Shanghai 200030 (China); Xue, Xiang-Xiang [Max Planck Institute for Astronomy, Königstuhl 17, Heidelberg D-69117 (Germany); Jin, Ge, E-mail: liuchao@nao.cas.cn [University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

    2014-08-01

    We present a support vector machine classifier to identify the K giant stars from the LAMOST survey directly using their spectral line features. The completeness of the identification is about 75% for tests based on LAMOST stellar parameters. The contamination in the identified K giant sample is lower than 2.5%. Applying the classification method to about two million LAMOST spectra observed during the pilot survey and the first year survey, we select 298,036 K giant candidates. The metallicities of the sample are also estimated with an uncertainty of 0.13 ∼ 0.29 dex based on the equivalent widths of Mg{sub b} and iron lines. A Bayesian method is then developed to estimate the posterior probability of the distance for the K giant stars, based on the estimated metallicity and 2MASS photometry. The synthetic isochrone-based distance estimates have been calibrated using 7 globular clusters with a wide range of metallicities. The uncertainty of the estimated distance modulus at K = 11 mag, which is the median brightness of the K giant sample, is about 0.6 mag, corresponding to ∼30% in distance. As a scientific verification case, the trailing arm of the Sagittarius stream is clearly identified with the selected K giant sample. Moreover, at about 80 kpc from the Sun, we use our K giant stars to confirm a detection of stream members near the apo-center of the trailing tail. These rediscoveries of the features of the Sagittarius stream illustrate the potential of the LAMOST survey for detecting substructures in the halo of the Milky Way.

  7. Comparison of hoop-net trapping and visual surveys to monitor abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Mali

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Abundance estimates play an important part in the regulatory and conservation decision-making process. It is important to correct monitoring data for imperfect detection when using these data to track spatial and temporal variation in abundance, especially in the case of rare and elusive species. This paper presents the first attempt to estimate abundance of the Rio Grande cooter (Pseudemys gorzugi while explicitly considering the detection process. Specifically, in 2016 we monitored this rare species at two sites along the Black River, New Mexico via traditional baited hoop-net traps and less invasive visual surveys to evaluate the efficacy of these two sampling designs. We fitted the Huggins closed-capture estimator to estimate capture probabilities using the trap data and distance sampling models to estimate detection probabilities using the visual survey data. We found that only the visual survey with the highest number of observed turtles resulted in similar abundance estimates to those estimated using the trap data. However, the estimates of abundance from the remaining visual survey data were highly variable and often underestimated abundance relative to the estimates from the trap data. We suspect this pattern is related to changes in the basking behavior of the species and, thus, the availability of turtles to be detected even though all visual surveys were conducted when environmental conditions were similar. Regardless, we found that riverine habitat conditions limited our ability to properly conduct visual surveys at one site. Collectively, this suggests visual surveys may not be an effective sample design for this species in this river system. When analyzing the trap data, we found capture probabilities to be highly variable across sites and between age classes and that recapture probabilities were much lower than initial capture probabilities, highlighting the importance of accounting for detectability when monitoring this species

  8. Inclusion of mobile phone numbers into an ongoing population health survey in New South Wales, Australia: design, methods, call outcomes, costs and sample representativeness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barr, Margo L; van Ritten, Jason J; Steel, David G; Thackway, Sarah V

    2012-11-22

    In Australia telephone surveys have been the method of choice for ongoing jurisdictional population health surveys. Although it was estimated in 2011 that nearly 20% of the Australian population were mobile-only phone users, the inclusion of mobile phone numbers into these existing landline population health surveys has not occurred. This paper describes the methods used for the inclusion of mobile phone numbers into an existing ongoing landline random digit dialling (RDD) health survey in an Australian state, the New South Wales Population Health Survey (NSWPHS). This paper also compares the call outcomes, costs and the representativeness of the resultant sample to that of the previous landline sample. After examining several mobile phone pilot studies conducted in Australia and possible sample designs (screening dual-frame and overlapping dual-frame), mobile phone numbers were included into the NSWPHS using an overlapping dual-frame design. Data collection was consistent, where possible, with the previous years' landline RDD phone surveys and between frames. Survey operational data for the frames were compared and combined. Demographic information from the interview data for mobile-only phone users, both, and total were compared to the landline frame using χ2 tests. Demographic information for each frame, landline and the mobile-only (equivalent to a screening dual frame design), and the frames combined (with appropriate overlap adjustment) were compared to the NSW demographic profile from the 2011 census using χ2 tests. In the first quarter of 2012, 3395 interviews were completed with 2171 respondents (63.9%) from the landline frame (17.6% landline only) and 1224 (36.1%) from the mobile frame (25.8% mobile only). Overall combined response, contact and cooperation rates were 33.1%, 65.1% and 72.2% respectively. As expected from previous research, the demographic profile of the mobile-only phone respondents differed most (more that were young, males, Aboriginal

  9. Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

    2017-06-30

    An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Human-Robot Site Survey and Sampling for Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Terrence; Bualat, Maria; Edwards, Laurence; Flueckiger, Lorenzo; Kunz, Clayton; Lee, Susan Y.; Park, Eric; To, Vinh; Utz, Hans; Ackner, Nir

    2006-01-01

    NASA is planning to send humans and robots back to the Moon before 2020. In order for extended missions to be productive, high quality maps of lunar terrain and resources are required. Although orbital images can provide much information, many features (local topography, resources, etc) will have to be characterized directly on the surface. To address this need, we are developing a system to perform site survey and sampling. The system includes multiple robots and humans operating in a variety of team configurations, coordinated via peer-to-peer human-robot interaction. In this paper, we present our system design and describe planned field tests.

  11. Effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on estimation accuracy of crop biophysical parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shezhou; Chen, Jing M; Wang, Cheng; Xi, Xiaohuan; Zeng, Hongcheng; Peng, Dailiang; Li, Dong

    2016-05-30

    Vegetation leaf area index (LAI), height, and aboveground biomass are key biophysical parameters. Corn is an important and globally distributed crop, and reliable estimations of these parameters are essential for corn yield forecasting, health monitoring and ecosystem modeling. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is considered an effective technology for estimating vegetation biophysical parameters. However, the estimation accuracies of these parameters are affected by multiple factors. In this study, we first estimated corn LAI, height and biomass (R2 = 0.80, 0.874 and 0.838, respectively) using the original LiDAR data (7.32 points/m2), and the results showed that LiDAR data could accurately estimate these biophysical parameters. Second, comprehensive research was conducted on the effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on the estimation accuracy of LAI, height and biomass. Our findings indicated that LiDAR point density had an important effect on the estimation accuracy for vegetation biophysical parameters, however, high point density did not always produce highly accurate estimates, and reduced point density could deliver reasonable estimation results. Furthermore, the results showed that sampling size and height threshold were additional key factors that affect the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Therefore, the optimal sampling size and the height threshold should be determined to improve the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Our results also implied that a higher LiDAR point density, larger sampling size and height threshold were required to obtain accurate corn LAI estimation when compared with height and biomass estimations. In general, our results provide valuable guidance for LiDAR data acquisition and estimation of vegetation biophysical parameters using LiDAR data.

  12. Power and sample-size estimation for microbiome studies using pairwise distances and PERMANOVA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Brendan J; Gross, Robert; Bittinger, Kyle; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Lewis, James D; Collman, Ronald G; Bushman, Frederic D; Li, Hongzhe

    2015-08-01

    The variation in community composition between microbiome samples, termed beta diversity, can be measured by pairwise distance based on either presence-absence or quantitative species abundance data. PERMANOVA, a permutation-based extension of multivariate analysis of variance to a matrix of pairwise distances, partitions within-group and between-group distances to permit assessment of the effect of an exposure or intervention (grouping factor) upon the sampled microbiome. Within-group distance and exposure/intervention effect size must be accurately modeled to estimate statistical power for a microbiome study that will be analyzed with pairwise distances and PERMANOVA. We present a framework for PERMANOVA power estimation tailored to marker-gene microbiome studies that will be analyzed by pairwise distances, which includes: (i) a novel method for distance matrix simulation that permits modeling of within-group pairwise distances according to pre-specified population parameters; (ii) a method to incorporate effects of different sizes within the simulated distance matrix; (iii) a simulation-based method for estimating PERMANOVA power from simulated distance matrices; and (iv) an R statistical software package that implements the above. Matrices of pairwise distances can be efficiently simulated to satisfy the triangle inequality and incorporate group-level effects, which are quantified by the adjusted coefficient of determination, omega-squared (ω2). From simulated distance matrices, available PERMANOVA power or necessary sample size can be estimated for a planned microbiome study. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Estimation of the biserial correlation and its sampling variance for use in meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Perke; Viechtbauer, Wolfgang

    2017-06-01

    Meta-analyses are often used to synthesize the findings of studies examining the correlational relationship between two continuous variables. When only dichotomous measurements are available for one of the two variables, the biserial correlation coefficient can be used to estimate the product-moment correlation between the two underlying continuous variables. Unlike the point-biserial correlation coefficient, biserial correlation coefficients can therefore be integrated with product-moment correlation coefficients in the same meta-analysis. The present article describes the estimation of the biserial correlation coefficient for meta-analytic purposes and reports simulation results comparing different methods for estimating the coefficient's sampling variance. The findings indicate that commonly employed methods yield inconsistent estimates of the sampling variance across a broad range of research situations. In contrast, consistent estimates can be obtained using two methods that appear to be unknown in the meta-analytic literature. A variance-stabilizing transformation for the biserial correlation coefficient is described that allows for the construction of confidence intervals for individual coefficients with close to nominal coverage probabilities in most of the examined conditions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Investigation of Bicycle Travel Time Estimation Using Bluetooth Sensors for Low Sampling Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenyu Mei

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Filtering the data for bicycle travel time using Bluetooth sensors is crucial to the estimation of link travel times on a corridor. The current paper describes an adaptive filtering algorithm for estimating bicycle travel times using Bluetooth data, with consideration of low sampling rates. The data for bicycle travel time using Bluetooth sensors has two characteristics. First, the bicycle flow contains stable and unstable conditions. Second, the collected data have low sampling rates (less than 1%. To avoid erroneous inference, filters are introduced to “purify” multiple time series. The valid data are identified within a dynamically varying validity window with the use of a robust data-filtering procedure. The size of the validity window varies based on the number of preceding sampling intervals without a Bluetooth record. Applications of the proposed algorithm to the dataset from Genshan East Road and Moganshan Road in Hangzhou demonstrate its ability to track typical variations in bicycle travel time efficiently, while suppressing high frequency noise signals.

  15. Spatial distribution, sampling precision and survey design optimisation with non-normal variables: The case of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) recruitment in Spanish Mediterranean waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tugores, M. Pilar; Iglesias, Magdalena; Oñate, Dolores; Miquel, Joan

    2016-02-01

    In the Mediterranean Sea, the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) displays a key role in ecological and economical terms. Ensuring stock sustainability requires the provision of crucial information, such as species spatial distribution or unbiased abundance and precision estimates, so that management strategies can be defined (e.g. fishing quotas, temporal closure areas or marine protected areas MPA). Furthermore, the estimation of the precision of global abundance at different sampling intensities can be used for survey design optimisation. Geostatistics provide a priori unbiased estimations of the spatial structure, global abundance and precision for autocorrelated data. However, their application to non-Gaussian data introduces difficulties in the analysis in conjunction with low robustness or unbiasedness. The present study applied intrinsic geostatistics in two dimensions in order to (i) analyse the spatial distribution of anchovy in Spanish Western Mediterranean waters during the species' recruitment season, (ii) produce distribution maps, (iii) estimate global abundance and its precision, (iv) analyse the effect of changing the sampling intensity on the precision of global abundance estimates and, (v) evaluate the effects of several methodological options on the robustness of all the analysed parameters. The results suggested that while the spatial structure was usually non-robust to the tested methodological options when working with the original dataset, it became more robust for the transformed datasets (especially for the log-backtransformed dataset). The global abundance was always highly robust and the global precision was highly or moderately robust to most of the methodological options, except for data transformation.

  16. How many dinosaur species were there? Fossil bias and true richness estimated using a Poisson sampling model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starrfelt, Jostein; Liow, Lee Hsiang

    2016-04-05

    The fossil record is a rich source of information about biological diversity in the past. However, the fossil record is not only incomplete but has also inherent biases due to geological, physical, chemical and biological factors. Our knowledge of past life is also biased because of differences in academic and amateur interests and sampling efforts. As a result, not all individuals or species that lived in the past are equally likely to be discovered at any point in time or space. To reconstruct temporal dynamics of diversity using the fossil record, biased sampling must be explicitly taken into account. Here, we introduce an approach that uses the variation in the number of times each species is observed in the fossil record to estimate both sampling bias and true richness. We term our technique TRiPS (True Richness estimated using a Poisson Sampling model) and explore its robustness to violation of its assumptions via simulations. We then venture to estimate sampling bias and absolute species richness of dinosaurs in the geological stages of the Mesozoic. Using TRiPS, we estimate that 1936 (1543-2468) species of dinosaurs roamed the Earth during the Mesozoic. We also present improved estimates of species richness trajectories of the three major dinosaur clades: the sauropodomorphs, ornithischians and theropods, casting doubt on the Jurassic-Cretaceous extinction event and demonstrating that all dinosaur groups are subject to considerable sampling bias throughout the Mesozoic. © 2016 The Authors.

  17. Hierarchical modeling of cluster size in wildlife surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2008-01-01

    Clusters or groups of individuals are the fundamental unit of observation in many wildlife sampling problems, including aerial surveys of waterfowl, marine mammals, and ungulates. Explicit accounting of cluster size in models for estimating abundance is necessary because detection of individuals within clusters is not independent and detectability of clusters is likely to increase with cluster size. This induces a cluster size bias in which the average cluster size in the sample is larger than in the population at large. Thus, failure to account for the relationship between delectability and cluster size will tend to yield a positive bias in estimates of abundance or density. I describe a hierarchical modeling framework for accounting for cluster-size bias in animal sampling. The hierarchical model consists of models for the observation process conditional on the cluster size distribution and the cluster size distribution conditional on the total number of clusters. Optionally, a spatial model can be specified that describes variation in the total number of clusters per sample unit. Parameter estimation, model selection, and criticism may be carried out using conventional likelihood-based methods. An extension of the model is described for the situation where measurable covariates at the level of the sample unit are available. Several candidate models within the proposed class are evaluated for aerial survey data on mallard ducks (Anas platyrhynchos).

  18. Remote Sensing Based Two-Stage Sampling for Accuracy Assessment and Area Estimation of Land Cover Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heinz Gallaun

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Land cover change processes are accelerating at the regional to global level. The remote sensing community has developed reliable and robust methods for wall-to-wall mapping of land cover changes; however, land cover changes often occur at rates below the mapping errors. In the current publication, we propose a cost-effective approach to complement wall-to-wall land cover change maps with a sampling approach, which is used for accuracy assessment and accurate estimation of areas undergoing land cover changes, including provision of confidence intervals. We propose a two-stage sampling approach in order to keep accuracy, efficiency, and effort of the estimations in balance. Stratification is applied in both stages in order to gain control over the sample size allocated to rare land cover change classes on the one hand and the cost constraints for very high resolution reference imagery on the other. Bootstrapping is used to complement the accuracy measures and the area estimates with confidence intervals. The area estimates and verification estimations rely on a high quality visual interpretation of the sampling units based on time series of satellite imagery. To demonstrate the cost-effective operational applicability of the approach we applied it for assessment of deforestation in an area characterized by frequent cloud cover and very low change rate in the Republic of Congo, which makes accurate deforestation monitoring particularly challenging.

  19. Estimation of technetium 99m mercaptoacetyltriglycine plasma clearance by use of one single plasma sample

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller-Suur, R.; Magnusson, G.; Karolinska Inst., Stockholm; Bois-Svensson, I.; Jansson, B.

    1991-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that technetium 99m mercaptoacetyltriglycine (MAG-3) is a suitable replacement for iodine 131 or 123 hippurate in gamma-camera renography. Also, the determination of its clearance is of value, since it correlates well with that of hippurate and thus may be an indirect measure of renal plasma flow. In order to simplify the clearance method we developed formulas for the estimation of plasma clearance of MAG-3 based on a single plasma sample and compared them with the multiple sample method based on 7 plasma samples. The correlation to effective renal plasma flow (ERPF) (according to Tauxe's method, using iodine 123 hippurate), which ranged from 75 to 654 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , was determined in these patients. Using the developed regression equations the error of estimate for the simplified clearance method was acceptably low (18-14 ml/min), when the single plasma sample was taken 44-64 min post-injection. Formulas for different sampling times at 44, 48, 52, 56, 60 and 64 min are given, and we recommend 60 min as optimal, with an error of estimate of 15.5 ml/min. The correlation between the MAG-3 clearances and ERPF was high (r=0.90). Since normal values for MAG-3 clearance are not yet available, transformation to estimated ERPF values by the regression equation (ERPF=1.86xC MAG-3 +4.6) could be of clinical value in order to compare it with the normal values for ERPF given in the literature. (orig.)

  20. A comparison of prevalence estimates for selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, the National Health Interview Survey, and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 2007-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaoyang; Balluz, Lina S; Ford, Earl S; Okoro, Catherine A; Zhao, Guixiang; Pierannunzi, Carol

    2012-06-01

    To compare the prevalence estimates of selected health indicators and chronic diseases or conditions among three national health surveys in the United States. Data from adults aged 18 years or older who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=807,524), the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in 2007 and 2008 (n=44,262), and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) during 2007 and 2008 (n=5871) were analyzed. The prevalence estimates of current smoking, obesity, hypertension, and no health insurance were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.7% to 3.9% (relative differences: 2.3% to 20.2%). The prevalence estimate of poor or fair health from BRFSS was similar to that from NHANES, but higher than that from NHIS. The prevalence estimates of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and stroke were similar across the three surveys, with absolute differences ranging from 0.0% to 0.8% (relative differences: 0.2% to 17.1%). While the BRFSS continues to provide invaluable health information at state and local level, it is reassuring to observe consistency in the prevalence estimates of key health indicators of similar caliber between BRFSS and other national surveys. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  1. Assessment of distribution and abundance estimates for Mariana swiftlets (Aerodramus bartschi) via examination of survey methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Nathan C.; Haig, Susan M.; Mosher, Stephen M.

    2018-01-01

    We described past and present distribution and abundance data to evaluate the status of the endangered Mariana Swiftlet (Aerodramus bartschi), a little-known echolocating cave swiftlet that currently inhabits 3 of 5 formerly occupied islands in the Mariana archipelago. We then evaluated the survey methods used to attain these estimates via fieldwork carried out on an introduced population of Mariana Swiftlets on the island of O'ahu, Hawaiian Islands, to derive better methods for future surveys. We estimate the range-wide population of Mariana Swiftlets to be 5,704 individuals occurring in 15 caves on Saipan, Aguiguan, and Guam in the Marianas; and 142 individuals occupying one tunnel on O'ahu. We further confirm that swiftlets have been extirpated from Rota and Tinian and have declined on Aguiguan. Swiftlets have remained relatively stable on Guam and Saipan in recent years. Our assessment of survey methods used for Mariana Swiftlets suggests overestimates depending on the technique used. We suggest the use of night vision technology and other changes to more accurately reflect their distribution, abundance, and status.

  2. Can smartphones measure momentary quality of life and participation? A proof of concept using experience sampling surveys with university students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liddle, Jacki; Wishink, Anna; Springfield, Liz; Gustafsson, Louise; Ireland, David; Silburn, Peter

    2017-08-01

    Understanding quality of life and participation is a key aspect of occupational therapy research. The use of smartphones to deliver experience-sampling surveys may provide an accessible way to monitor these outcomes. This study used smartphone-based experience sampling methods (ESM) to investigate factors influencing momentary quality of life (mQOL) of university students. A convenience sample of students at an Australian university participated. Using a custom smartphone application, ESM surveys were sent six to eight times, every second day, over a week. Participants indicated their mQOL, occupational participation, occupational enjoyment, social context and location via surveys and provided demographic and health information in a single self-report questionnaire. The relationship between mQOL and variables was analysed at the survey level using logistic regression. Forty students completed 391 surveys. Higher mQOL was significantly related to participation in productive occupations (z = 3.48; P = 0.001), moderate (z = 4.00; P sample, analysing at the individual level, and using ESM in conjunction with other methodologies is recommended. © 2017 Occupational Therapy Australia.

  3. Variance estimation for generalized Cavalieri estimators

    OpenAIRE

    Johanna Ziegel; Eva B. Vedel Jensen; Karl-Anton Dorph-Petersen

    2011-01-01

    The precision of stereological estimators based on systematic sampling is of great practical importance. This paper presents methods of data-based variance estimation for generalized Cavalieri estimators where errors in sampling positions may occur. Variance estimators are derived under perturbed systematic sampling, systematic sampling with cumulative errors and systematic sampling with random dropouts. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

  4. [A respondent-driven sampling survey on HIV and risk factors among men who have sex with men in Chongqing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Lin; Feng, Lian-gui; Ding, Xian-bin; Zhao, Jin-kou; Xu, Jing; Han, Mei; Zhou, Chao

    2009-10-01

    To examine HIV prevalence and related risk factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chongqing, and to explore the feasibility of using respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in the survey. Based on results from formative research, a RDS survey was designed and conducted to collect demographic, behavioral and serologic data. RDSAT was used to calculate point estimation and confidence intervals. SPSS was used for bi-variate analysis using RDSAT exported weighed data. NETDRAW was used to draw network diagram. Among 617 subjects recruited, the adjusted HIV and syphilis prevalence rates were 16.8% and 10.9%, respectively. 73.0% of the subjects were 20 to 29 years old and 72.9% were officially registered residents of Chongqing. 83.4% were single, with the proportion of students the highest, accounting for 24.6%. During the last six months, 83.4% of them reported ever having anal sex, and 54.0% reported having unprotected anal sex. This survey confirmed that Chongqing had a higher reported HIV prevalence among MSM than from other Chinese cities. Comprehensive intervention services were required to address this alarmingly high prevalence, with focus on intervention through internet and those having syphilis infection. RDS seemed one of the effective ways of recruiting hidden MSM populations in Chongqing which had a large population of active MSM who did not frequently visit MSM venues as compared with snowball method.

  5. Estimating the impact of Trypanosoma evansi infection (surra) on buffalo population dynamics in southern Philippines using data from cross-sectional surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dargantes, A P; Mercado, R T; Dobson, R J; Reid, S A

    2009-08-01

    Despite the widespread problem with surra (Trypanosoma evansi) in livestock, there are no published studies on its impact on host populations, probably because of the large financial and time cost involved in performing longitudinal studies. During 2002-6, a cross-sectional survey for T. evansi infection involving 1732 buffaloes from 71 villages in southern Philippines was carried out. Other livestock animals (horses, cattle and goats) in every surveyed village were also tested for infection with T. evansi but domestic buffaloes were the primary survey target. Seroprevalence ranged from 6% to 21% and 13% to 100% for buffaloes in low and high risk areas, respectively. Key demographic parameters were estimated from the age structured distributions of the sampled buffalo population for each sex. All areas were dominated by females (69%) and the annual calving rate for areas of 100% and low seroprevalence was 15% and 47%, respectively. Males were removed at a relatively high annual rate of 27% in all areas. In the main reproductive years (4-10) female removal/mortality was financial losses due to reduced fertility, high mortality/removal rate and the necessity to import replacement buffaloes.

  6. Prevalence of dementia-associated disability among Chinese older adults: results from a national sample survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Zhang, Lei; Du, Wei; Pang, Lihua; Guo, Chao; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

    2015-03-01

    Due to rapid population aging and a tidal wave of dementia, dementia has become an urgent public health issue in China. Few large-scale surveys on dementia have been conducted in China and little was known about the magnitude of dysfunction and disability caused by dementia. In this study, using national sample survey data, we aimed to describe the prevalence rate of dementia-associated disability, its associated factors, and daily activities and social functions of people with dementia-associated disability in Chinese older adults. We used the second China National Sample Survey on Disability, comprising 2,526,145 persons from 771,797 households. Identification for dementia was based on consensus manuals. Standard weighting procedures were used to construct sample weights considering the multistage stratified cluster sampling survey scheme. Population weighted numbers, weighted prevalence, and the odd ratios (ORs) were calculated. The prevalence rate of dementia-associated disability was 4.64% (95% CI: 4.26-5.01) and it accounted for 41.03% of mental disability among Chinese older adults. Urban residence (OR: 1.33 [1.12-1.57]), older age (80+ years) (OR: 4.12 [3.38-.03]), illiteracy (OR: 1.79 [1.27-2.53]), and currently not married (OR: 1.15 [1.00-1.32]) were associated with increased risk of dementia-associated disability. Compared with those with mental disability of other causes and those with other types of disabilities, older adults with dementia-asscoiated disability were more likely to have severe or extreme difficulty in daily activities and social functions. Countermeasures are warranted to obtain a more precise overview of dementia in China, and strategies on enhancing early identification, treatment, and rehabilitation should be developed for people with dementia. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. The ESO Diffuse Interstellar Bands Large Exploration Survey (EDIBLES) . I. Project description, survey sample, and quality assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Nick L. J.; Cami, Jan; Farhang, Amin; Smoker, Jonathan; Monreal-Ibero, Ana; Lallement, Rosine; Sarre, Peter J.; Marshall, Charlotte C. M.; Smith, Keith T.; Evans, Christopher J.; Royer, Pierre; Linnartz, Harold; Cordiner, Martin A.; Joblin, Christine; van Loon, Jacco Th.; Foing, Bernard H.; Bhatt, Neil H.; Bron, Emeric; Elyajouri, Meriem; de Koter, Alex; Ehrenfreund, Pascale; Javadi, Atefeh; Kaper, Lex; Khosroshadi, Habib G.; Laverick, Mike; Le Petit, Franck; Mulas, Giacomo; Roueff, Evelyne; Salama, Farid; Spaans, Marco

    2017-10-01

    The carriers of the diffuse interstellar bands (DIBs) are largely unidentified molecules ubiquitously present in the interstellar medium (ISM). After decades of study, two strong and possibly three weak near-infrared DIBs have recently been attributed to the C60^+ fullerene based on observational and laboratory measurements. There is great promise for the identification of the over 400 other known DIBs, as this result could provide chemical hints towards other possible carriers. In an effort tosystematically study the properties of the DIB carriers, we have initiated a new large-scale observational survey: the ESO Diffuse Interstellar Bands Large Exploration Survey (EDIBLES). The main objective is to build on and extend existing DIB surveys to make a major step forward in characterising the physical and chemical conditions for a statistically significant sample of interstellar lines-of-sight, with the goal to reverse-engineer key molecular properties of the DIB carriers. EDIBLES is a filler Large Programme using the Ultraviolet and Visual Echelle Spectrograph at the Very Large Telescope at Paranal, Chile. It is designed to provide an observationally unbiased view of the presence and behaviour of the DIBs towards early-spectral-type stars whose lines-of-sight probe the diffuse-to-translucent ISM. Such a complete dataset will provide a deep census of the atomic and molecular content, physical conditions, chemical abundances and elemental depletion levels for each sightline. Achieving these goals requires a homogeneous set of high-quality data in terms of resolution (R 70 000-100 000), sensitivity (S/N up to 1000 per resolution element), and spectral coverage (305-1042 nm), as well as a large sample size (100+ sightlines). In this first paper the goals, objectives and methodology of the EDIBLES programme are described and an initial assessment of the data is provided.

  8. An optimized Line Sampling method for the estimation of the failure probability of nuclear passive systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, E.; Pedroni, N.

    2010-01-01

    The quantitative reliability assessment of a thermal-hydraulic (T-H) passive safety system of a nuclear power plant can be obtained by (i) Monte Carlo (MC) sampling the uncertainties of the system model and parameters, (ii) computing, for each sample, the system response by a mechanistic T-H code and (iii) comparing the system response with pre-established safety thresholds, which define the success or failure of the safety function. The computational effort involved can be prohibitive because of the large number of (typically long) T-H code simulations that must be performed (one for each sample) for the statistical estimation of the probability of success or failure. In this work, Line Sampling (LS) is adopted for efficient MC sampling. In the LS method, an 'important direction' pointing towards the failure domain of interest is determined and a number of conditional one-dimensional problems are solved along such direction; this allows for a significant reduction of the variance of the failure probability estimator, with respect, for example, to standard random sampling. Two issues are still open with respect to LS: first, the method relies on the determination of the 'important direction', which requires additional runs of the T-H code; second, although the method has been shown to improve the computational efficiency by reducing the variance of the failure probability estimator, no evidence has been given yet that accurate and precise failure probability estimates can be obtained with a number of samples reduced to below a few hundreds, which may be required in case of long-running models. The work presented in this paper addresses the first issue by (i) quantitatively comparing the efficiency of the methods proposed in the literature to determine the LS important direction; (ii) employing artificial neural network (ANN) regression models as fast-running surrogates of the original, long-running T-H code to reduce the computational cost associated to the

  9. Global review of health care surveys using lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS), 1984-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Susan E; Valadez, Joseph J

    2006-09-01

    We conducted a global review on the use of lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) to assess health care services, health behaviors, and disease burden. Publications and reports on LQAS surveys were sought from Medline and five other electronic databases; the World Health Organization; the World Bank; governments, nongovernmental organizations, and individual scientists. We identified a total of 805 LQAS surveys conducted by different management groups during January 1984 through December 2004. There was a striking increase in the annual number of LQAS surveys conducted in 2000-2004 (128/year) compared with 1984-1999 (10/year). Surveys were conducted in 55 countries, and in 12 of these countries there were 10 or more LQAS surveys. Geographically, 317 surveys (39.4%) were conducted in Africa, 197 (28.5%) in the Americas, 115 (14.3%) in the Eastern Mediterranean, 114 (14.2%) in South-East Asia, 48 (6.0%) in Europe, and 14 (1.8%) in the Western Pacific. Health care parameters varied, and some surveys assessed more than one parameter. There were 320 surveys about risk factors for HIV/AIDS/sexually transmitted infections; 266 surveys on immunization coverage, 240 surveys post-disasters, 224 surveys on women's health, 142 surveys on growth and nutrition, 136 surveys on diarrheal disease control, and 88 surveys on quality management. LQAS surveys to assess disease burden included 23 neonatal tetanus mortality surveys and 12 surveys on other diseases. LQAS is a practical field method which increasingly is being applied in assessment of preventive and curative health services, and may offer new research opportunities to social scientists. When LQAS data are collected recurrently at multiple time points, they can be used to measure the spatial variation in behavior change. Such data provide insight into understanding relationships between various investments in social, human, and physical capital, and into the effectiveness of different public health strategies in achieving

  10. Estimating Classification Errors under Edit Restrictions in Composite Survey-Register Data Using Multiple Imputation Latent Class Modelling (MILC)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boeschoten, Laura; Oberski, Daniel; De Waal, Ton

    2017-01-01

    Both registers and surveys can contain classification errors. These errors can be estimated by making use of a composite data set. We propose a new method based on latent class modelling to estimate the number of classification errors across several sources while taking into account impossible

  11. Occupancy estimation and the closure assumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rota, Christopher T.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Betts, Matthew G.

    2009-01-01

    1. Recent advances in occupancy estimation that adjust for imperfect detection have provided substantial improvements over traditional approaches and are receiving considerable use in applied ecology. To estimate and adjust for detectability, occupancy modelling requires multiple surveys at a site and requires the assumption of 'closure' between surveys, i.e. no changes in occupancy between surveys. Violations of this assumption could bias parameter estimates; however, little work has assessed model sensitivity to violations of this assumption or how commonly such violations occur in nature. 2. We apply a modelling procedure that can test for closure to two avian point-count data sets in Montana and New Hampshire, USA, that exemplify time-scales at which closure is often assumed. These data sets illustrate different sampling designs that allow testing for closure but are currently rarely employed in field investigations. Using a simulation study, we then evaluate the sensitivity of parameter estimates to changes in site occupancy and evaluate a power analysis developed for sampling designs that is aimed at limiting the likelihood of closure. 3. Application of our approach to point-count data indicates that habitats may frequently be open to changes in site occupancy at time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, with 71% and 100% of species investigated in Montana and New Hampshire respectively, showing violation of closure across time periods of 3 weeks and 8 days respectively. 4. Simulations suggest that models assuming closure are sensitive to changes in occupancy. Power analyses further suggest that the modelling procedure we apply can effectively test for closure. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our demonstration that sites may be open to changes in site occupancy over time-scales typical of many occupancy investigations, combined with the sensitivity of models to violations of the closure assumption, highlights the importance of properly addressing

  12. Effects of sample survey design on the accuracy of classification tree models in species distribution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Edwards; D. Richard Cutler; Niklaus E. Zimmermann; Linda Geiser; Gretchen G. Moisen

    2006-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of probabilistic (hereafter DESIGN) and non-probabilistic (PURPOSIVE) sample surveys on resultant classification tree models for predicting the presence of four lichen species in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Models derived from both survey forms were assessed using an independent data set (EVALUATION). Measures of accuracy as gauged by...

  13. Uncertainty Estimation of Neutron Activation Analysis in Zinc Elemental Determination in Food Samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Endah Damastuti; Muhayatun; Diah Dwiana L

    2009-01-01

    Beside to complished the requirements of international standard of ISO/IEC 17025:2005, uncertainty estimation should be done to increase quality and confidence of analysis results and also to establish traceability of the analysis results to SI unit. Neutron activation analysis is a major technique used by Radiometry technique analysis laboratory and is included as scope of accreditation under ISO/IEC 17025:2005, therefore uncertainty estimation of neutron activation analysis is needed to be carried out. Sample and standard preparation as well as, irradiation and measurement using gamma spectrometry were the main activities which could give contribution to uncertainty. The components of uncertainty sources were specifically explained. The result of expanded uncertainty was 4,0 mg/kg with level of confidence 95% (coverage factor=2) and Zn concentration was 25,1 mg/kg. Counting statistic of cuplikan and standard were the major contribution of combined uncertainty. The uncertainty estimation was expected to increase the quality of the analysis results and could be applied further to other kind of samples. (author)

  14. Estimation of walrus populations on sea ice with infrared imagery and aerial photography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udevitz, M.S.; Burn, D.M.; Webber, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    Population sizes of ice-associated pinnipeds have often been estimated with visual or photographic aerial surveys, but these methods require relatively slow speeds and low altitudes, limiting the area they can cover. Recent developments in infrared imagery and its integration with digital photography could allow substantially larger areas to be surveyed and more accurate enumeration of individuals, thereby solving major problems with previous survey methods. We conducted a trial survey in April 2003 to estimate the number of Pacific walruses (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) hauled out on sea ice around St. Lawrence Island, Alaska. The survey used high altitude infrared imagery to detect groups of walruses on strip transects. Low altitude digital photography was used to determine the number of walruses in a sample of detected groups and calibrate the infrared imagery for estimating the total number of walruses. We propose a survey design incorporating this approach with satellite radio telemetry to estimate the proportion of the population in the water and additional low-level flights to estimate the proportion of the hauled-out population in groups too small to be detected in the infrared imagery. We believe that this approach offers the potential for obtaining reliable population estimates for walruses and other ice-associated pinnipeds. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

  15. Some remarks on estimating a covariance structure model from a sample correlation matrix

    OpenAIRE

    Maydeu Olivares, Alberto; Hernández Estrada, Adolfo

    2000-01-01

    A popular model in structural equation modeling involves a multivariate normal density with a structured covariance matrix that has been categorized according to a set of thresholds. In this setup one may estimate the covariance structure parameters from the sample tetrachoricl polychoric correlations but only if the covariance structure is scale invariant. Doing so when the covariance structure is not scale invariant results in estimating a more restricted covariance structure than the one i...

  16. MEASURING X-RAY VARIABILITY IN FAINT/SPARSELY SAMPLED ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allevato, V. [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, Gustaf Haellstroemin katu 2a, FI-00014 Helsinki (Finland); Paolillo, M. [Department of Physical Sciences, University Federico II, via Cinthia 6, I-80126 Naples (Italy); Papadakis, I. [Department of Physics and Institute of Theoretical and Computational Physics, University of Crete, 71003 Heraklion (Greece); Pinto, C. [SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, Sorbonnelaan 2, 3584-CA Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2013-07-01

    We study the statistical properties of the normalized excess variance of variability process characterized by a ''red-noise'' power spectral density (PSD), as in the case of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). We perform Monte Carlo simulations of light curves, assuming both a continuous and a sparse sampling pattern and various signal-to-noise ratios (S/Ns). We show that the normalized excess variance is a biased estimate of the variance even in the case of continuously sampled light curves. The bias depends on the PSD slope and on the sampling pattern, but not on the S/N. We provide a simple formula to account for the bias, which yields unbiased estimates with an accuracy better than 15%. We show that the normalized excess variance estimates based on single light curves (especially for sparse sampling and S/N < 3) are highly uncertain (even if corrected for bias) and we propose instead the use of an ''ensemble estimate'', based on multiple light curves of the same object, or on the use of light curves of many objects. These estimates have symmetric distributions, known errors, and can also be corrected for biases. We use our results to estimate the ability to measure the intrinsic source variability in current data, and show that they could also be useful in the planning of the observing strategy of future surveys such as those provided by X-ray missions studying distant and/or faint AGN populations and, more in general, in the estimation of the variability amplitude of sources that will result from future surveys such as Pan-STARRS and LSST.

  17. Correcting for Systematic Bias in Sample Estimates of Population Variances: Why Do We Divide by n-1?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittag, Kathleen Cage

    An important topic presented in introductory statistics courses is the estimation of population parameters using samples. Students learn that when estimating population variances using sample data, we always get an underestimate of the population variance if we divide by n rather than n-1. One implication of this correction is that the degree of…

  18. Aerial Survey as a Tool to Estimate Abundance and Describe Distribution of a Carcharhinid Species, the Lemon Shark, Negaprion brevirostris

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Kessel

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aerial survey provides an important tool to assess the abundance of both terrestrial and marine vertebrates. To date, limited work has tested the effectiveness of this technique to estimate the abundance of smaller shark species. In Bimini, Bahamas, the lemon shark (Negaprion brevirostris shows high site fidelity to a shallow sandy lagoon, providing an ideal test species to determine the effectiveness of localised aerial survey techniques for a Carcharhinid species in shallow subtropical waters. Between September 2007 and September 2008, visual surveys were conducted from light aircraft following defined transects ranging in length between 8.8 and 4.4 km. Count results were corrected for “availability”, “perception”, and “survey intensity” to provide unbiased abundance estimates. The abundance of lemon sharks was greatest in the central area of the lagoon during high tide, with a change in abundance distribution to the east and western regions of the lagoon with low tide. Mean abundance of sharks was estimated at 49 (±8.6 individuals, and monthly abundance was significantly positively correlated with mean water temperature. The successful implementation of the aerial survey technique highlighted the potential of further employment for shark abundance assessments in shallow coastal marine environments.

  19. Genotyping faecal samples of Bengal tiger Panthera tigris tigris for population estimation: A pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Lalji

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bengal tiger Panthera tigris tigris the National Animal of India, is an endangered species. Estimating populations for such species is the main objective for designing conservation measures and for evaluating those that are already in place. Due to the tiger's cryptic and secretive behaviour, it is not possible to enumerate and monitor its populations through direct observations; instead indirect methods have always been used for studying tigers in the wild. DNA methods based on non-invasive sampling have not been attempted so far for tiger population studies in India. We describe here a pilot study using DNA extracted from faecal samples of tigers for the purpose of population estimation. Results In this study, PCR primers were developed based on tiger-specific variations in the mitochondrial cytochrome b for reliably identifying tiger faecal samples from those of sympatric carnivores. Microsatellite markers were developed for the identification of individual tigers with a sibling Probability of Identity of 0.005 that can distinguish even closely related individuals with 99.9% certainty. The effectiveness of using field-collected tiger faecal samples for DNA analysis was evaluated by sampling, identification and subsequently genotyping samples from two protected areas in southern India. Conclusion Our results demonstrate the feasibility of using tiger faecal matter as a potential source of DNA for population estimation of tigers in protected areas in India in addition to the methods currently in use.

  20. Comparison of sampling designs for estimating deforestation from landsat TM and MODIS imagery: a case study in Mato Grosso, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shanyou; Zhang, Hailong; Liu, Ronggao; Cao, Yun; Zhang, Guixin

    2014-01-01

    Sampling designs are commonly used to estimate deforestation over large areas, but comparisons between different sampling strategies are required. Using PRODES deforestation data as a reference, deforestation in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil from 2005 to 2006 is evaluated using Landsat imagery and a nearly synchronous MODIS dataset. The MODIS-derived deforestation is used to assist in sampling and extrapolation. Three sampling designs are compared according to the estimated deforestation of the entire study area based on simple extrapolation and linear regression models. The results show that stratified sampling for strata construction and sample allocation using the MODIS-derived deforestation hotspots provided more precise estimations than simple random and systematic sampling. Moreover, the relationship between the MODIS-derived and TM-derived deforestation provides a precise estimate of the total deforestation area as well as the distribution of deforestation in each block.