Calibration model maintenance in melamine resin production: Integrating drift detection, smart sample selection and model adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nikzad-Langerodi, Ramin; Lughofer, Edwin; Cernuda, Carlos; Reischer, Thomas; Kantner, Wolfgang; Pawliczek, Marcin; Brandstetter, Markus

2018-07-12

selection of samples by active learning (AL) used for subsequent model adaptation is advantageous compared to passive (random) selection in case that a drift leads to persistent prediction bias allowing more rapid adaptation at lower reference measurement rates. Fully unsupervised adaptation using FLEXFIS-PLS could improve predictive accuracy significantly for light drifts but was not able to fully compensate for prediction bias in case of significant lack of fit w.r.t. the latent variable space. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vibration and acoustic frequency spectra for industrial process modeling using selective fusion multi-condition samples and multi-source features

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jian; Qiao, Junfei; Wu, ZhiWei; Chai, Tianyou; Zhang, Jian; Yu, Wen

2018-01-01

Frequency spectral data of mechanical vibration and acoustic signals relate to difficult-to-measure production quality and quantity parameters of complex industrial processes. A selective ensemble (SEN) algorithm can be used to build a soft sensor model of these process parameters by fusing valued information selectively from different perspectives. However, a combination of several optimized ensemble sub-models with SEN cannot guarantee the best prediction model. In this study, we use several techniques to construct mechanical vibration and acoustic frequency spectra of a data-driven industrial process parameter model based on selective fusion multi-condition samples and multi-source features. Multi-layer SEN (MLSEN) strategy is used to simulate the domain expert cognitive process. Genetic algorithm and kernel partial least squares are used to construct the inside-layer SEN sub-model based on each mechanical vibration and acoustic frequency spectral feature subset. Branch-and-bound and adaptive weighted fusion algorithms are integrated to select and combine outputs of the inside-layer SEN sub-models. Then, the outside-layer SEN is constructed. Thus, "sub-sampling training examples"-based and "manipulating input features"-based ensemble construction methods are integrated, thereby realizing the selective information fusion process based on multi-condition history samples and multi-source input features. This novel approach is applied to a laboratory-scale ball mill grinding process. A comparison with other methods indicates that the proposed MLSEN approach effectively models mechanical vibration and acoustic signals.

Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

2008-01-01

explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...

Sample size estimation and sampling techniques for selecting a representative sample

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aamir Omair

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this article is to provide a general understanding of the concepts of sampling as applied to health-related research. Sample Size Estimation: It is important to select a representative sample in quantitative research in order to be able to generalize the results to the target population. The sample should be of the required sample size and must be selected using an appropriate probability sampling technique. There are many hidden biases which can adversely affect the outcome of the study. Important factors to consider for estimating the sample size include the size of the study population, confidence level, expected proportion of the outcome variable (for categorical variables/standard deviation of the outcome variable (for numerical variables, and the required precision (margin of accuracy from the study. The more the precision required, the greater is the required sample size. Sampling Techniques: The probability sampling techniques applied for health related research include simple random sampling, systematic random sampling, stratified random sampling, cluster sampling, and multistage sampling. These are more recommended than the nonprobability sampling techniques, because the results of the study can be generalized to the target population.

Model Selection in Continuous Test Norming With GAMLSS.

Science.gov (United States)

Voncken, Lieke; Albers, Casper J; Timmerman, Marieke E

2017-06-01

To compute norms from reference group test scores, continuous norming is preferred over traditional norming. A suitable continuous norming approach for continuous data is the use of the Box-Cox Power Exponential model, which is found in the generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape. Applying the Box-Cox Power Exponential model for test norming requires model selection, but it is unknown how well this can be done with an automatic selection procedure. In a simulation study, we compared the performance of two stepwise model selection procedures combined with four model-fit criteria (Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, generalized Akaike information criterion (3), cross-validation), varying data complexity, sampling design, and sample size in a fully crossed design. The new procedure combined with one of the generalized Akaike information criterion was the most efficient model selection procedure (i.e., required the smallest sample size). The advocated model selection procedure is illustrated with norming data of an intelligence test.

Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

2017-12-01

Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

40 CFR 89.507 - Sample selection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Auditing § 89.507 Sample selection. (a) Engines comprising a test sample will be selected at the location...). However, once the manufacturer ships any test engine, it relinquishes the prerogative to conduct retests...

40 CFR 90.507 - Sample selection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Auditing § 90.507 Sample selection. (a) Engines comprising a test sample will be selected at the location... manufacturer ships any test engine, it relinquishes the prerogative to conduct retests as provided in § 90.508...

Observed Characteristics and Teacher Quality: Impacts of Sample Selection on a Value Added Model

Science.gov (United States)

Winters, Marcus A.; Dixon, Bruce L.; Greene, Jay P.

2012-01-01

We measure the impact of observed teacher characteristics on student math and reading proficiency using a rich dataset from Florida. We expand upon prior work by accounting directly for nonrandom attrition of teachers from the classroom in a sample selection framework. We find evidence that sample selection is present in the estimation of the…

HOT-DUST-POOR QUASARS IN MID-INFRARED AND OPTICALLY SELECTED SAMPLES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao Heng; Elvis, Martin; Civano, Francesca; Lawrence, Andy

2011-01-01

We show that the hot-dust-poor (HDP) quasars, originally found in the X-ray-selected XMM-COSMOS type 1 active galactic nucleus (AGN) sample, are just as common in two samples selected at optical/infrared wavelengths: the Richards et al. Spitzer/SDSS sample (8.7% ± 2.2%) and the Palomar-Green-quasar-dominated sample of Elvis et al. (9.5% ± 5.0%). The properties of the HDP quasars in these two samples are consistent with the XMM-COSMOS sample, except that, at the 99% (∼ 2.5σ) significance, a larger proportion of the HDP quasars in the Spitzer/SDSS sample have weak host galaxy contributions, probably due to the selection criteria used. Either the host dust is destroyed (dynamically or by radiation) or is offset from the central black hole due to recoiling. Alternatively, the universality of HDP quasars in samples with different selection methods and the continuous distribution of dust covering factor in type 1 AGNs suggest that the range of spectral energy distributions could be related to the range of tilts in warped fueling disks, as in the model of Lawrence and Elvis, with HDP quasars having relatively small warps.

Accounting for animal movement in estimation of resource selection functions: sampling and data analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Forester, James D; Im, Hae Kyung; Rathouz, Paul J

2009-12-01

Patterns of resource selection by animal populations emerge as a result of the behavior of many individuals. Statistical models that describe these population-level patterns of habitat use can miss important interactions between individual animals and characteristics of their local environment; however, identifying these interactions is difficult. One approach to this problem is to incorporate models of individual movement into resource selection models. To do this, we propose a model for step selection functions (SSF) that is composed of a resource-independent movement kernel and a resource selection function (RSF). We show that standard case-control logistic regression may be used to fit the SSF; however, the sampling scheme used to generate control points (i.e., the definition of availability) must be accommodated. We used three sampling schemes to analyze simulated movement data and found that ignoring sampling and the resource-independent movement kernel yielded biased estimates of selection. The level of bias depended on the method used to generate control locations, the strength of selection, and the spatial scale of the resource map. Using empirical or parametric methods to sample control locations produced biased estimates under stronger selection; however, we show that the addition of a distance function to the analysis substantially reduced that bias. Assuming a uniform availability within a fixed buffer yielded strongly biased selection estimates that could be corrected by including the distance function but remained inefficient relative to the empirical and parametric sampling methods. As a case study, we used location data collected from elk in Yellowstone National Park, USA, to show that selection and bias may be temporally variable. Because under constant selection the amount of bias depends on the scale at which a resource is distributed in the landscape, we suggest that distance always be included as a covariate in SSF analyses. This approach to

Sample Selection for Training Cascade Detectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Vállez, Noelia; Deniz, Oscar; Bueno, Gloria

2015-01-01

Automatic detection systems usually require large and representative training datasets in order to obtain good detection and false positive rates. Training datasets are such that the positive set has few samples and/or the negative set should represent anything except the object of interest. In this respect, the negative set typically contains orders of magnitude more images than the positive set. However, imbalanced training databases lead to biased classifiers. In this paper, we focus our attention on a negative sample selection method to properly balance the training data for cascade detectors. The method is based on the selection of the most informative false positive samples generated in one stage to feed the next stage. The results show that the proposed cascade detector with sample selection obtains on average better partial AUC and smaller standard deviation than the other compared cascade detectors.

Sample Selection for Training Cascade Detectors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Noelia Vállez

Full Text Available Automatic detection systems usually require large and representative training datasets in order to obtain good detection and false positive rates. Training datasets are such that the positive set has few samples and/or the negative set should represent anything except the object of interest. In this respect, the negative set typically contains orders of magnitude more images than the positive set. However, imbalanced training databases lead to biased classifiers. In this paper, we focus our attention on a negative sample selection method to properly balance the training data for cascade detectors. The method is based on the selection of the most informative false positive samples generated in one stage to feed the next stage. The results show that the proposed cascade detector with sample selection obtains on average better partial AUC and smaller standard deviation than the other compared cascade detectors.

A Heckman Selection- t Model

KAUST Repository

Marchenko, Yulia V.; Genton, Marc G.

2012-01-01

for sample selection bias based on the SLt model and compare it with the performances of several tests used with the SLN model. Our findings indicate that the latter tests can be misleading in the presence of heavy-tailed data. © 2012 American Statistical

UNLABELED SELECTED SAMPLES IN FEATURE EXTRACTION FOR CLASSIFICATION OF HYPERSPECTRAL IMAGES WITH LIMITED TRAINING SAMPLES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kianisarkaleh

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Feature extraction plays a key role in hyperspectral images classification. Using unlabeled samples, often unlimitedly available, unsupervised and semisupervised feature extraction methods show better performance when limited number of training samples exists. This paper illustrates the importance of selecting appropriate unlabeled samples that used in feature extraction methods. Also proposes a new method for unlabeled samples selection using spectral and spatial information. The proposed method has four parts including: PCA, prior classification, posterior classification and sample selection. As hyperspectral image passes these parts, selected unlabeled samples can be used in arbitrary feature extraction methods. The effectiveness of the proposed unlabeled selected samples in unsupervised and semisupervised feature extraction is demonstrated using two real hyperspectral datasets. Results show that through selecting appropriate unlabeled samples, the proposed method can improve the performance of feature extraction methods and increase classification accuracy.

Acceptance sampling using judgmental and randomly selected samples

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sego, Landon H.; Shulman, Stanley A.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Wilson, John E.; Pulsipher, Brent A.; Sieber, W. Karl

2010-09-01

We present a Bayesian model for acceptance sampling where the population consists of two groups, each with different levels of risk of containing unacceptable items. Expert opinion, or judgment, may be required to distinguish between the high and low-risk groups. Hence, high-risk items are likely to be identifed (and sampled) using expert judgment, while the remaining low-risk items are sampled randomly. We focus on the situation where all observed samples must be acceptable. Consequently, the objective of the statistical inference is to quantify the probability that a large percentage of the unsampled items in the population are also acceptable. We demonstrate that traditional (frequentist) acceptance sampling and simpler Bayesian formulations of the problem are essentially special cases of the proposed model. We explore the properties of the model in detail, and discuss the conditions necessary to ensure that required samples sizes are non-decreasing function of the population size. The method is applicable to a variety of acceptance sampling problems, and, in particular, to environmental sampling where the objective is to demonstrate the safety of reoccupying a remediated facility that has been contaminated with a lethal agent.

Two-step variable selection in quantile regression models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

FAN Yali

2015-06-01

Full Text Available We propose a two-step variable selection procedure for high dimensional quantile regressions, in which the dimension of the covariates, pn is much larger than the sample size n. In the first step, we perform ℓ1 penalty, and we demonstrate that the first step penalized estimator with the LASSO penalty can reduce the model from an ultra-high dimensional to a model whose size has the same order as that of the true model, and the selected model can cover the true model. The second step excludes the remained irrelevant covariates by applying the adaptive LASSO penalty to the reduced model obtained from the first step. Under some regularity conditions, we show that our procedure enjoys the model selection consistency. We conduct a simulation study and a real data analysis to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed approach.

Optimal time points sampling in pathway modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Shiyan

2004-01-01

Modelling cellular dynamics based on experimental data is at the heart of system biology. Considerable progress has been made to dynamic pathway modelling as well as the related parameter estimation. However, few of them gives consideration for the issue of optimal sampling time selection for parameter estimation. Time course experiments in molecular biology rarely produce large and accurate data sets and the experiments involved are usually time consuming and expensive. Therefore, to approximate parameters for models with only few available sampling data is of significant practical value. For signal transduction, the sampling intervals are usually not evenly distributed and are based on heuristics. In the paper, we investigate an approach to guide the process of selecting time points in an optimal way to minimize the variance of parameter estimates. In the method, we first formulate the problem to a nonlinear constrained optimization problem by maximum likelihood estimation. We then modify and apply a quantum-inspired evolutionary algorithm, which combines the advantages of both quantum computing and evolutionary computing, to solve the optimization problem. The new algorithm does not suffer from the morass of selecting good initial values and being stuck into local optimum as usually accompanied with the conventional numerical optimization techniques. The simulation results indicate the soundness of the new method.

Population genetics inference for longitudinally-sampled mutants under strong selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacerda, Miguel; Seoighe, Cathal

2014-11-01

Longitudinal allele frequency data are becoming increasingly prevalent. Such samples permit statistical inference of the population genetics parameters that influence the fate of mutant variants. To infer these parameters by maximum likelihood, the mutant frequency is often assumed to evolve according to the Wright-Fisher model. For computational reasons, this discrete model is commonly approximated by a diffusion process that requires the assumption that the forces of natural selection and mutation are weak. This assumption is not always appropriate. For example, mutations that impart drug resistance in pathogens may evolve under strong selective pressure. Here, we present an alternative approximation to the mutant-frequency distribution that does not make any assumptions about the magnitude of selection or mutation and is much more computationally efficient than the standard diffusion approximation. Simulation studies are used to compare the performance of our method to that of the Wright-Fisher and Gaussian diffusion approximations. For large populations, our method is found to provide a much better approximation to the mutant-frequency distribution when selection is strong, while all three methods perform comparably when selection is weak. Importantly, maximum-likelihood estimates of the selection coefficient are severely attenuated when selection is strong under the two diffusion models, but not when our method is used. This is further demonstrated with an application to mutant-frequency data from an experimental study of bacteriophage evolution. We therefore recommend our method for estimating the selection coefficient when the effective population size is too large to utilize the discrete Wright-Fisher model. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Learning from Past Classification Errors: Exploring Methods for Improving the Performance of a Deep Learning-based Building Extraction Model through Quantitative Analysis of Commission Errors for Optimal Sample Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Swan, B.; Laverdiere, M.; Yang, L.

2017-12-01

In the past five years, deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have been increasingly favored for computer vision applications due to their high accuracy and ability to generalize well in very complex problems; however, details of how they function and in turn how they may be optimized are still imperfectly understood. In particular, their complex and highly nonlinear network architecture, including many hidden layers and self-learned parameters, as well as their mathematical implications, presents open questions about how to effectively select training data. Without knowledge of the exact ways the model processes and transforms its inputs, intuition alone may fail as a guide to selecting highly relevant training samples. Working in the context of improving a CNN-based building extraction model used for the LandScan USA gridded population dataset, we have approached this problem by developing a semi-supervised, highly-scalable approach to select training samples from a dataset of identified commission errors. Due to the large scope this project, tens of thousands of potential samples could be derived from identified commission errors. To efficiently trim those samples down to a manageable and effective set for creating additional training sample, we statistically summarized the spectral characteristics of areas with rates of commission errors at the image tile level and grouped these tiles using affinity propagation. Highly representative members of each commission error cluster were then used to select sites for training sample creation. The model will be incrementally re-trained with the new training data to allow for an assessment of how the addition of different types of samples affects the model performance, such as precision and recall rates. By using quantitative analysis and data clustering techniques to select highly relevant training samples, we hope to improve model performance in a manner that is resource efficient, both in terms of training process

Sample selection based on kernel-subclustering for the signal reconstruction of multifunctional sensors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Xin; Wei, Guo; Sun, Jinwei

2013-01-01

The signal reconstruction methods based on inverse modeling for the signal reconstruction of multifunctional sensors have been widely studied in recent years. To improve the accuracy, the reconstruction methods have become more and more complicated because of the increase in the model parameters and sample points. However, there is another factor that affects the reconstruction accuracy, the position of the sample points, which has not been studied. A reasonable selection of the sample points could improve the signal reconstruction quality in at least two ways: improved accuracy with the same number of sample points or the same accuracy obtained with a smaller number of sample points. Both ways are valuable for improving the accuracy and decreasing the workload, especially for large batches of multifunctional sensors. In this paper, we propose a sample selection method based on kernel-subclustering distill groupings of the sample data and produce the representation of the data set for inverse modeling. The method calculates the distance between two data points based on the kernel-induced distance instead of the conventional distance. The kernel function is a generalization of the distance metric by mapping the data that are non-separable in the original space into homogeneous groups in the high-dimensional space. The method obtained the best results compared with the other three methods in the simulation. (paper)

Soybean yield modeling using bootstrap methods for small samples

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dalposso, G.A.; Uribe-Opazo, M.A.; Johann, J.A.

2016-11-01

One of the problems that occur when working with regression models is regarding the sample size; once the statistical methods used in inferential analyzes are asymptotic if the sample is small the analysis may be compromised because the estimates will be biased. An alternative is to use the bootstrap methodology, which in its non-parametric version does not need to guess or know the probability distribution that generated the original sample. In this work we used a set of soybean yield data and physical and chemical soil properties formed with fewer samples to determine a multiple linear regression model. Bootstrap methods were used for variable selection, identification of influential points and for determination of confidence intervals of the model parameters. The results showed that the bootstrap methods enabled us to select the physical and chemical soil properties, which were significant in the construction of the soybean yield regression model, construct the confidence intervals of the parameters and identify the points that had great influence on the estimated parameters. (Author)

40 CFR 205.171-3 - Test motorcycle sample selection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Test motorcycle sample selection. 205... ABATEMENT PROGRAMS TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT NOISE EMISSION CONTROLS Motorcycle Exhaust Systems § 205.171-3 Test motorcycle sample selection. A test motorcycle to be used for selective enforcement audit testing...

ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry de-Graft Acquah

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

Magnetically separable polymer (Mag-MIP) for selective analysis of biotin in food samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Uzuriaga-Sánchez, Rosario Josefina; Khan, Sabir; Wong, Ademar; Picasso, Gino; Pividori, Maria Isabel; Sotomayor, Maria Del Pilar Taboada

2016-01-01

This work presents an efficient method for the preparation of magnetic nanoparticles modified with molecularly imprinted polymers (Mag-MIP) through core-shell method for the determination of biotin in milk food samples. The functional monomer acrylic acid was selected from molecular modeling, EGDMA was used as cross-linking monomer and AIBN as radical initiator. The Mag-MIP and Mag-NIP were characterized by FTIR, magnetic hysteresis, XRD, SEM and N2-sorption measurements. The capacity of Mag-MIP for biotin adsorption, its kinetics and selectivity were studied in detail. The adsorption data was well described by Freundlich isotherm model with adsorption equilibrium constant (KF) of 1.46 mL g(-1). The selectivity experiments revealed that prepared Mag-MIP had higher selectivity toward biotin compared to other molecules with different chemical structure. The material was successfully applied for the determination of biotin in diverse milk samples using HPLC for quantification of the analyte, obtaining the mean value of 87.4% recovery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Principal Stratification in sample selection problems with non normal error terms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rocci, Roberto; Mellace, Giovanni

The aim of the paper is to relax distributional assumptions on the error terms, often imposed in parametric sample selection models to estimate causal effects, when plausible exclusion restrictions are not available. Within the principal stratification framework, we approximate the true distribut...... an application to the Job Corps training program....

Risk Attitudes, Sample Selection and Attrition in a Longitudinal Field Experiment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

with respect to risk attitudes. Our design builds in explicit randomization on the incentives for participation. We show that there are significant sample selection effects on inferences about the extent of risk aversion, but that the effects of subsequent sample attrition are minimal. Ignoring sample...... selection leads to inferences that subjects in the population are more risk averse than they actually are. Correcting for sample selection and attrition affects utility curvature, but does not affect inferences about probability weighting. Properly accounting for sample selection and attrition effects leads...... to findings of temporal stability in overall risk aversion. However, that stability is around different levels of risk aversion than one might naively infer without the controls for sample selection and attrition we are able to implement. This evidence of “randomization bias” from sample selection...

Model selection with multiple regression on distance matrices leads to incorrect inferences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryan P Franckowiak

Full Text Available In landscape genetics, model selection procedures based on Information Theoretic and Bayesian principles have been used with multiple regression on distance matrices (MRM to test the relationship between multiple vectors of pairwise genetic, geographic, and environmental distance. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we examined the ability of model selection criteria based on Akaike's information criterion (AIC, its small-sample correction (AICc, and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC to reliably rank candidate models when applied with MRM while varying the sample size. The results showed a serious problem: all three criteria exhibit a systematic bias toward selecting unnecessarily complex models containing spurious random variables and erroneously suggest a high level of support for the incorrectly ranked best model. These problems effectively increased with increasing sample size. The failure of AIC, AICc, and BIC was likely driven by the inflated sample size and different sum-of-squares partitioned by MRM, and the resulting effect on delta values. Based on these findings, we strongly discourage the continued application of AIC, AICc, and BIC for model selection with MRM.

Statistical model selection with “Big Data”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jurgen A. Doornik

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems including an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases and selecting by inappropriate methods. We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based relationship using Big Data, and the possible role of Autometrics in that context. Paramount considerations include embedding relationships in general initial models, possibly restricting the number of variables to be selected over by non-statistical criteria (the formulation problem, using good quality data on all variables, analyzed with tight significance levels by a powerful selection procedure, retaining available theory insights (the selection problem while testing for relationships being well specified and invariant to shifts in explanatory variables (the evaluation problem, using a viable approach that resolves the computational problem of immense numbers of possible models.

Forecasting Urban Air Quality via a Back-Propagation Neural Network and a Selection Sample Rule

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yonghong Liu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, based on a sample selection rule and a Back Propagation (BP neural network, a new model of forecasting daily SO2, NO2, and PM10 concentration in seven sites of Guangzhou was developed using data from January 2006 to April 2012. A meteorological similarity principle was applied in the development of the sample selection rule. The key meteorological factors influencing SO2, NO2, and PM10 daily concentrations as well as weight matrices and threshold matrices were determined. A basic model was then developed based on the improved BP neural network. Improving the basic model, identification of the factor variation consistency was added in the rule, and seven sets of sensitivity experiments in one of the seven sites were conducted to obtain the selected model. A comparison of the basic model from May 2011 to April 2012 in one site showed that the selected model for PM10 displayed better forecasting performance, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE values decreasing by 4% and R2 values increasing from 0.53 to 0.68. Evaluations conducted at the six other sites revealed a similar performance. On the whole, the analysis showed that the models presented here could provide local authorities with reliable and precise predictions and alarms about air quality if used at an operational scale.

High-dimensional model estimation and model selection

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

I will review concepts and algorithms from high-dimensional statistics for linear model estimation and model selection. I will particularly focus on the so-called p>>n setting where the number of variables p is much larger than the number of samples n. I will focus mostly on regularized statistical estimators that produce sparse models. Important examples include the LASSO and its matrix extension, the Graphical LASSO, and more recent non-convex methods such as the TREX. I will show the applicability of these estimators in a diverse range of scientific applications, such as sparse interaction graph recovery and high-dimensional classification and regression problems in genomics.

Improvements of the Vis-NIRS Model in the Prediction of Soil Organic Matter Content Using Spectral Pretreatments, Sample Selection, and Wavelength Optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Z. D.; Wang, Y. B.; Wang, R. J.; Wang, L. S.; Lu, C. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Song, L. T.; Liu, Y.

2017-07-01

A total of 130 topsoil samples collected from Guoyang County, Anhui Province, China, were used to establish a Vis-NIR model for the prediction of organic matter content (OMC) in lime concretion black soils. Different spectral pretreatments were applied for minimizing the irrelevant and useless information of the spectra and increasing the spectra correlation with the measured values. Subsequently, the Kennard-Stone (KS) method and sample set partitioning based on joint x-y distances (SPXY) were used to select the training set. Successive projection algorithm (SPA) and genetic algorithm (GA) were then applied for wavelength optimization. Finally, the principal component regression (PCR) model was constructed, in which the optimal number of principal components was determined using the leave-one-out cross validation technique. The results show that the combination of the Savitzky-Golay (SG) filter for smoothing and multiplicative scatter correction (MSC) can eliminate the effect of noise and baseline drift; the SPXY method is preferable to KS in the sample selection; both the SPA and the GA can significantly reduce the number of wavelength variables and favorably increase the accuracy, especially GA, which greatly improved the prediction accuracy of soil OMC with Rcc, RMSEP, and RPD up to 0.9316, 0.2142, and 2.3195, respectively.

40 CFR 205.160-2 - Test sample selection and preparation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Test sample selection and preparation... sample selection and preparation. (a) Vehicles comprising the sample which are required to be tested... maintained in any manner unless such preparation, tests, modifications, adjustments or maintenance are part...

A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

2006-01-01

Modeling the probability of use of land units characterized by discrete and continuous measures, we present a Bayesian random-effects model to assess resource selection. This model provides simultaneous estimation of both individual- and population-level selection. Deviance information criterion (DIC), a Bayesian alternative to AIC that is sample-size specific, is used for model selection. Aerial radiolocation data from 76 adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus) and calf pairs during 1 year on an Arctic coastal plain calving ground were used to illustrate models and assess population-level selection of landscape attributes, as well as individual heterogeneity of selection. Landscape attributes included elevation, NDVI (a measure of forage greenness), and land cover-type classification. Results from the first of a 2-stage model-selection procedure indicated that there is substantial heterogeneity among cow-calf pairs with respect to selection of the landscape attributes. In the second stage, selection of models with heterogeneity included indicated that at the population-level, NDVI and land cover class were significant attributes for selection of different landscapes by pairs on the calving ground. Population-level selection coefficients indicate that the pairs generally select landscapes with higher levels of NDVI, but the relationship is quadratic. The highest rate of selection occurs at values of NDVI less than the maximum observed. Results for land cover-class selections coefficients indicate that wet sedge, moist sedge, herbaceous tussock tundra, and shrub tussock tundra are selected at approximately the same rate, while alpine and sparsely vegetated landscapes are selected at a lower rate. Furthermore, the variability in selection by individual caribou for moist sedge and sparsely vegetated landscapes is large relative to the variability in selection of other land cover types. The example analysis illustrates that, while sometimes computationally intense, a

How does observation uncertainty influence which stream water samples are most informative for model calibration?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ling; van Meerveld, Ilja; Seibert, Jan

2016-04-01

Streamflow isotope samples taken during rainfall-runoff events are very useful for multi-criteria model calibration because they can help decrease parameter uncertainty and improve internal model consistency. However, the number of samples that can be collected and analysed is often restricted by practical and financial constraints. It is, therefore, important to choose an appropriate sampling strategy and to obtain samples that have the highest information content for model calibration. We used the Birkenes hydrochemical model and synthetic rainfall, streamflow and isotope data to explore which samples are most informative for model calibration. Starting with error-free observations, we investigated how many samples are needed to obtain a certain model fit. Based on different parameter sets, representing different catchments, and different rainfall events, we also determined which sampling times provide the most informative data for model calibration. Our results show that simulation performance for models calibrated with the isotopic data from two intelligently selected samples was comparable to simulations based on isotopic data for all 100 time steps. The models calibrated with the intelligently selected samples also performed better than the model calibrations with two benchmark sampling strategies (random selection and selection based on hydrologic information). Surprisingly, samples on the rising limb and at the peak were less informative than expected and, generally, samples taken at the end of the event were most informative. The timing of the most informative samples depends on the proportion of different flow components (baseflow, slow response flow, fast response flow and overflow). For events dominated by baseflow and slow response flow, samples taken at the end of the event after the fast response flow has ended were most informative; when the fast response flow was dominant, samples taken near the peak were most informative. However when overflow

The quasar luminosity function from a variability-selected sample

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, M. R. S.; Veron, P.

1993-01-01

A sample of quasars is selected from a 10-yr sequence of 30 UK Schmidt plates. Luminosity functions are derived in several redshift intervals, which in each case show a featureless power-law rise towards low luminosities. There is no sign of the 'break' found in the recent UVX sample of Boyle et al. It is suggested that reasons for the disagreement are connected with biases in the selection of the UVX sample. The question of the nature of quasar evolution appears to be still unresolved.

Optimal Subset Selection of Time-Series MODIS Images and Sample Data Transfer with Random Forests for Supervised Classification Modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Fuqun; Zhang, Aining

2016-10-25

Nowadays, various time-series Earth Observation data with multiple bands are freely available, such as Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) datasets including 8-day composites from NASA, and 10-day composites from the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS). It is challenging to efficiently use these time-series MODIS datasets for long-term environmental monitoring due to their vast volume and information redundancy. This challenge will be greater when Sentinel 2-3 data become available. Another challenge that researchers face is the lack of in-situ data for supervised modelling, especially for time-series data analysis. In this study, we attempt to tackle the two important issues with a case study of land cover mapping using CCRS 10-day MODIS composites with the help of Random Forests' features: variable importance, outlier identification. The variable importance feature is used to analyze and select optimal subsets of time-series MODIS imagery for efficient land cover mapping, and the outlier identification feature is utilized for transferring sample data available from one year to an adjacent year for supervised classification modelling. The results of the case study of agricultural land cover classification at a regional scale show that using only about a half of the variables we can achieve land cover classification accuracy close to that generated using the full dataset. The proposed simple but effective solution of sample transferring could make supervised modelling possible for applications lacking sample data.

Statistical approach for selection of regression model during validation of bioanalytical method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalija Nakov

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The selection of an adequate regression model is the basis for obtaining accurate and reproducible results during the bionalytical method validation. Given the wide concentration range, frequently present in bioanalytical assays, heteroscedasticity of the data may be expected. Several weighted linear and quadratic regression models were evaluated during the selection of the adequate curve fit using nonparametric statistical tests: One sample rank test and Wilcoxon signed rank test for two independent groups of samples. The results obtained with One sample rank test could not give statistical justification for the selection of linear vs. quadratic regression models because slight differences between the error (presented through the relative residuals were obtained. Estimation of the significance of the differences in the RR was achieved using Wilcoxon signed rank test, where linear and quadratic regression models were treated as two independent groups. The application of this simple non-parametric statistical test provides statistical confirmation of the choice of an adequate regression model.

Sworn testimony of the model evidence: Gaussian Mixture Importance (GAME) sampling

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Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

2017-07-01

What is the "best" model? The answer to this question lies in part in the eyes of the beholder, nevertheless a good model must blend rigorous theory with redeeming qualities such as parsimony and quality of fit. Model selection is used to make inferences, via weighted averaging, from a set of K candidate models, Mk; k=>(1,…,K>), and help identify which model is most supported by the observed data, Y>˜=>(y˜1,…,y˜n>). Here, we introduce a new and robust estimator of the model evidence, p>(Y>˜|Mk>), which acts as normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes' theorem and provides a single quantitative measure of relative support for each hypothesis that integrates model accuracy, uncertainty, and complexity. However, p>(Y>˜|Mk>) is analytically intractable for most practical modeling problems. Our method, coined GAussian Mixture importancE (GAME) sampling, uses bridge sampling of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior model parameter distribution derived from MCMC simulation. We benchmark the accuracy and reliability of GAME sampling by application to a diverse set of multivariate target distributions (up to 100 dimensions) with known values of p>(Y>˜|Mk>) and to hypothesis testing using numerical modeling of the rainfall-runoff transformation of the Leaf River watershed in Mississippi, USA. These case studies demonstrate that GAME sampling provides robust and unbiased estimates of the evidence at a relatively small computational cost outperforming commonly used estimators. The GAME sampler is implemented in the MATLAB package of DREAM and simplifies considerably scientific inquiry through hypothesis testing and model selection.

Nested sampling algorithm for subsurface flow model selection, uncertainty quantification, and nonlinear calibration

KAUST Repository

Elsheikh, A. H.; Wheeler, M. F.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

2013-01-01

Calibration of subsurface flow models is an essential step for managing ground water aquifers, designing of contaminant remediation plans, and maximizing recovery from hydrocarbon reservoirs. We investigate an efficient sampling algorithm known

Traditional and robust vector selection methods for use with similarity based models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hines, J. W.; Garvey, D. R.

2006-01-01

Vector selection, or instance selection as it is often called in the data mining literature, performs a critical task in the development of nonparametric, similarity based models. Nonparametric, similarity based modeling (SBM) is a form of 'lazy learning' which constructs a local model 'on the fly' by comparing a query vector to historical, training vectors. For large training sets the creation of local models may become cumbersome, since each training vector must be compared to the query vector. To alleviate this computational burden, varying forms of training vector sampling may be employed with the goal of selecting a subset of the training data such that the samples are representative of the underlying process. This paper describes one such SBM, namely auto-associative kernel regression (AAKR), and presents five traditional vector selection methods and one robust vector selection method that may be used to select prototype vectors from a larger data set in model training. The five traditional vector selection methods considered are min-max, vector ordering, combination min-max and vector ordering, fuzzy c-means clustering, and Adeli-Hung clustering. Each method is described in detail and compared using artificially generated data and data collected from the steam system of an operating nuclear power plant. (authors)

Semiparametric efficient and robust estimation of an unknown symmetric population under arbitrary sample selection bias

KAUST Repository

Ma, Yanyuan

2013-09-01

We propose semiparametric methods to estimate the center and shape of a symmetric population when a representative sample of the population is unavailable due to selection bias. We allow an arbitrary sample selection mechanism determined by the data collection procedure, and we do not impose any parametric form on the population distribution. Under this general framework, we construct a family of consistent estimators of the center that is robust to population model misspecification, and we identify the efficient member that reaches the minimum possible estimation variance. The asymptotic properties and finite sample performance of the estimation and inference procedures are illustrated through theoretical analysis and simulations. A data example is also provided to illustrate the usefulness of the methods in practice. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

Models of microbiome evolution incorporating host and microbial selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Qinglong; Wu, Steven; Sukumaran, Jeet; Rodrigo, Allen

2017-09-25

Numerous empirical studies suggest that hosts and microbes exert reciprocal selective effects on their ecological partners. Nonetheless, we still lack an explicit framework to model the dynamics of both hosts and microbes under selection. In a previous study, we developed an agent-based forward-time computational framework to simulate the neutral evolution of host-associated microbial communities in a constant-sized, unstructured population of hosts. These neutral models allowed offspring to sample microbes randomly from parents and/or from the environment. Additionally, the environmental pool of available microbes was constituted by fixed and persistent microbial OTUs and by contributions from host individuals in the preceding generation. In this paper, we extend our neutral models to allow selection to operate on both hosts and microbes. We do this by constructing a phenome for each microbial OTU consisting of a sample of traits that influence host and microbial fitnesses independently. Microbial traits can influence the fitness of hosts ("host selection") and the fitness of microbes ("trait-mediated microbial selection"). Additionally, the fitness effects of traits on microbes can be modified by their hosts ("host-mediated microbial selection"). We simulate the effects of these three types of selection, individually or in combination, on microbiome diversities and the fitnesses of hosts and microbes over several thousand generations of hosts. We show that microbiome diversity is strongly influenced by selection acting on microbes. Selection acting on hosts only influences microbiome diversity when there is near-complete direct or indirect parental contribution to the microbiomes of offspring. Unsurprisingly, microbial fitness increases under microbial selection. Interestingly, when host selection operates, host fitness only increases under two conditions: (1) when there is a strong parental contribution to microbial communities or (2) in the absence of a strong

A novel heterogeneous training sample selection method on space-time adaptive processing

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongshun; Guo, Yiduo

2018-04-01

The performance of ground target detection about space-time adaptive processing (STAP) decreases when non-homogeneity of clutter power is caused because of training samples contaminated by target-like signals. In order to solve this problem, a novel nonhomogeneous training sample selection method based on sample similarity is proposed, which converts the training sample selection into a convex optimization problem. Firstly, the existing deficiencies on the sample selection using generalized inner product (GIP) are analyzed. Secondly, the similarities of different training samples are obtained by calculating mean-hausdorff distance so as to reject the contaminated training samples. Thirdly, cell under test (CUT) and the residual training samples are projected into the orthogonal subspace of the target in the CUT, and mean-hausdorff distances between the projected CUT and training samples are calculated. Fourthly, the distances are sorted in order of value and the training samples which have the bigger value are selective preference to realize the reduced-dimension. Finally, simulation results with Mountain-Top data verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.

A model of directional selection applied to the evolution of drug resistance in HIV-1.

Science.gov (United States)

Seoighe, Cathal; Ketwaroo, Farahnaz; Pillay, Visva; Scheffler, Konrad; Wood, Natasha; Duffet, Rodger; Zvelebil, Marketa; Martinson, Neil; McIntyre, James; Morris, Lynn; Hide, Winston

2007-04-01

Understanding how pathogens acquire resistance to drugs is important for the design of treatment strategies, particularly for rapidly evolving viruses such as HIV-1. Drug treatment can exert strong selective pressures and sites within targeted genes that confer resistance frequently evolve far more rapidly than the neutral rate. Rapid evolution at sites that confer resistance to drugs can be used to help elucidate the mechanisms of evolution of drug resistance and to discover or corroborate novel resistance mutations. We have implemented standard maximum likelihood methods that are used to detect diversifying selection and adapted them for use with serially sampled reverse transcriptase (RT) coding sequences isolated from a group of 300 HIV-1 subtype C-infected women before and after single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) to prevent mother-to-child transmission. We have also extended the standard models of codon evolution for application to the detection of directional selection. Through simulation, we show that the directional selection model can provide a substantial improvement in sensitivity over models of diversifying selection. Five of the sites within the RT gene that are known to harbor mutations that confer resistance to nevirapine (NVP) strongly supported the directional selection model. There was no evidence that other mutations that are known to confer NVP resistance were selected in this cohort. The directional selection model, applied to serially sampled sequences, also had more power than the diversifying selection model to detect selection resulting from factors other than drug resistance. Because inference of selection from serial samples is unlikely to be adversely affected by recombination, the methods we describe may have general applicability to the analysis of positive selection affecting recombining coding sequences when serially sampled data are available.

Evaluation of pump pulsation in respirable size-selective sampling: part II. Changes in sampling efficiency.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Eun Gyung; Lee, Taekhee; Kim, Seung Won; Lee, Larry; Flemmer, Michael M; Harper, Martin

2014-01-01

This second, and concluding, part of this study evaluated changes in sampling efficiency of respirable size-selective samplers due to air pulsations generated by the selected personal sampling pumps characterized in Part I (Lee E, Lee L, Möhlmann C et al. Evaluation of pump pulsation in respirable size-selective sampling: Part I. Pulsation measurements. Ann Occup Hyg 2013). Nine particle sizes of monodisperse ammonium fluorescein (from 1 to 9 μm mass median aerodynamic diameter) were generated individually by a vibrating orifice aerosol generator from dilute solutions of fluorescein in aqueous ammonia and then injected into an environmental chamber. To collect these particles, 10-mm nylon cyclones, also known as Dorr-Oliver (DO) cyclones, were used with five medium volumetric flow rate pumps. Those were the Apex IS, HFS513, GilAir5, Elite5, and Basic5 pumps, which were found in Part I to generate pulsations of 5% (the lowest), 25%, 30%, 56%, and 70% (the highest), respectively. GK2.69 cyclones were used with the Legacy [pump pulsation (PP) = 15%] and Elite12 (PP = 41%) pumps for collection at high flows. The DO cyclone was also used to evaluate changes in sampling efficiency due to pulse shape. The HFS513 pump, which generates a more complex pulse shape, was compared to a single sine wave fluctuation generated by a piston. The luminescent intensity of the fluorescein extracted from each sample was measured with a luminescence spectrometer. Sampling efficiencies were obtained by dividing the intensity of the fluorescein extracted from the filter placed in a cyclone with the intensity obtained from the filter used with a sharp-edged reference sampler. Then, sampling efficiency curves were generated using a sigmoid function with three parameters and each sampling efficiency curve was compared to that of the reference cyclone by constructing bias maps. In general, no change in sampling efficiency (bias under ±10%) was observed until pulsations exceeded 25% for the

6. Label-free selective plane illumination microscopy of tissue samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muteb Alharbi

2017-10-01

Conclusion: Overall this method meets the demands of the current needs for 3D imaging tissue samples in a label-free manner. Label-free Selective Plane Microscopy directly provides excellent information about the structure of the tissue samples. This work has highlighted the superiority of Label-free Selective Plane Microscopy to current approaches to label-free 3D imaging of tissue.

On the selection of ordinary differential equation models with application to predator-prey dynamical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xinyu; Cao, Jiguo; Carroll, Raymond J

2015-03-01

We consider model selection and estimation in a context where there are competing ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, and all the models are special cases of a "full" model. We propose a computationally inexpensive approach that employs statistical estimation of the full model, followed by a combination of a least squares approximation (LSA) and the adaptive Lasso. We show the resulting method, here called the LSA method, to be an (asymptotically) oracle model selection method. The finite sample performance of the proposed LSA method is investigated with Monte Carlo simulations, in which we examine the percentage of selecting true ODE models, the efficiency of the parameter estimation compared to simply using the full and true models, and coverage probabilities of the estimated confidence intervals for ODE parameters, all of which have satisfactory performances. Our method is also demonstrated by selecting the best predator-prey ODE to model a lynx and hare population dynamical system among some well-known and biologically interpretable ODE models. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Patch-based visual tracking with online representative sample selection

Science.gov (United States)

Ou, Weihua; Yuan, Di; Li, Donghao; Liu, Bin; Xia, Daoxun; Zeng, Wu

2017-05-01

Occlusion is one of the most challenging problems in visual object tracking. Recently, a lot of discriminative methods have been proposed to deal with this problem. For the discriminative methods, it is difficult to select the representative samples for the target template updating. In general, the holistic bounding boxes that contain tracked results are selected as the positive samples. However, when the objects are occluded, this simple strategy easily introduces the noises into the training data set and the target template and then leads the tracker to drift away from the target seriously. To address this problem, we propose a robust patch-based visual tracker with online representative sample selection. Different from previous works, we divide the object and the candidates into several patches uniformly and propose a score function to calculate the score of each patch independently. Then, the average score is adopted to determine the optimal candidate. Finally, we utilize the non-negative least square method to find the representative samples, which are used to update the target template. The experimental results on the object tracking benchmark 2013 and on the 13 challenging sequences show that the proposed method is robust to the occlusion and achieves promising results.

Towards a pro-health food-selection model for gatekeepers in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The purpose of this study was to develop a pro-health food selection model for gatekeepers of Bulawayo high-density suburbs in Zimbabwe. Gatekeepers in five suburbs constituted the study population from which a sample of 250 subjects was randomly selected. Of the total respondents (N= 182), 167 had their own ...

Impact of multicollinearity on small sample hydrologic regression models

Science.gov (United States)

Kroll, Charles N.; Song, Peter

2013-06-01

Often hydrologic regression models are developed with ordinary least squares (OLS) procedures. The use of OLS with highly correlated explanatory variables produces multicollinearity, which creates highly sensitive parameter estimators with inflated variances and improper model selection. It is not clear how to best address multicollinearity in hydrologic regression models. Here a Monte Carlo simulation is developed to compare four techniques to address multicollinearity: OLS, OLS with variance inflation factor screening (VIF), principal component regression (PCR), and partial least squares regression (PLS). The performance of these four techniques was observed for varying sample sizes, correlation coefficients between the explanatory variables, and model error variances consistent with hydrologic regional regression models. The negative effects of multicollinearity are magnified at smaller sample sizes, higher correlations between the variables, and larger model error variances (smaller R2). The Monte Carlo simulation indicates that if the true model is known, multicollinearity is present, and the estimation and statistical testing of regression parameters are of interest, then PCR or PLS should be employed. If the model is unknown, or if the interest is solely on model predictions, is it recommended that OLS be employed since using more complicated techniques did not produce any improvement in model performance. A leave-one-out cross-validation case study was also performed using low-streamflow data sets from the eastern United States. Results indicate that OLS with stepwise selection generally produces models across study regions with varying levels of multicollinearity that are as good as biased regression techniques such as PCR and PLS.

Greedy Sampling and Incremental Surrogate Model-Based Tailoring of Aeroservoelastic Model Database for Flexible Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yi; Pant, Kapil; Brenner, Martin J.; Ouellette, Jeffrey A.

2018-01-01

This paper presents a data analysis and modeling framework to tailor and develop linear parameter-varying (LPV) aeroservoelastic (ASE) model database for flexible aircrafts in broad 2D flight parameter space. The Kriging surrogate model is constructed using ASE models at a fraction of grid points within the original model database, and then the ASE model at any flight condition can be obtained simply through surrogate model interpolation. The greedy sampling algorithm is developed to select the next sample point that carries the worst relative error between the surrogate model prediction and the benchmark model in the frequency domain among all input-output channels. The process is iterated to incrementally improve surrogate model accuracy till a pre-determined tolerance or iteration budget is met. The methodology is applied to the ASE model database of a flexible aircraft currently being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies indicate that the proposed method can reduce the number of models in the original database by 67%. Even so the ASE models obtained through Kriging interpolation match the model in the original database constructed directly from the physics-based tool with the worst relative error far below 1%. The interpolated ASE model exhibits continuously-varying gains along a set of prescribed flight conditions. More importantly, the selected grid points are distributed non-uniformly in the parameter space, a) capturing the distinctly different dynamic behavior and its dependence on flight parameters, and b) reiterating the need and utility for adaptive space sampling techniques for ASE model database compaction. The present framework is directly extendible to high-dimensional flight parameter space, and can be used to guide the ASE model development, model order reduction, robust control synthesis and novel vehicle design of flexible aircraft.

Assessing Exhaustiveness of Stochastic Sampling for Integrative Modeling of Macromolecular Structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Viswanath, Shruthi; Chemmama, Ilan E; Cimermancic, Peter; Sali, Andrej

2017-12-05

Modeling of macromolecular structures involves structural sampling guided by a scoring function, resulting in an ensemble of good-scoring models. By necessity, the sampling is often stochastic, and must be exhaustive at a precision sufficient for accurate modeling and assessment of model uncertainty. Therefore, the very first step in analyzing the ensemble is an estimation of the highest precision at which the sampling is exhaustive. Here, we present an objective and automated method for this task. As a proxy for sampling exhaustiveness, we evaluate whether two independently and stochastically generated sets of models are sufficiently similar. The protocol includes testing 1) convergence of the model score, 2) whether model scores for the two samples were drawn from the same parent distribution, 3) whether each structural cluster includes models from each sample proportionally to its size, and 4) whether there is sufficient structural similarity between the two model samples in each cluster. The evaluation also provides the sampling precision, defined as the smallest clustering threshold that satisfies the third, most stringent test. We validate the protocol with the aid of enumerated good-scoring models for five illustrative cases of binary protein complexes. Passing the proposed four tests is necessary, but not sufficient for thorough sampling. The protocol is general in nature and can be applied to the stochastic sampling of any set of models, not just structural models. In addition, the tests can be used to stop stochastic sampling as soon as exhaustiveness at desired precision is reached, thereby improving sampling efficiency; they may also help in selecting a model representation that is sufficiently detailed to be informative, yet also sufficiently coarse for sampling to be exhaustive. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel variable selection approach that iteratively optimizes variable space using weighted binary matrix sampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Bai-chuan; Yun, Yong-huan; Liang, Yi-zeng; Yi, Lun-zhao

2014-10-07

In this study, a new optimization algorithm called the Variable Iterative Space Shrinkage Approach (VISSA) that is based on the idea of model population analysis (MPA) is proposed for variable selection. Unlike most of the existing optimization methods for variable selection, VISSA statistically evaluates the performance of variable space in each step of optimization. Weighted binary matrix sampling (WBMS) is proposed to generate sub-models that span the variable subspace. Two rules are highlighted during the optimization procedure. First, the variable space shrinks in each step. Second, the new variable space outperforms the previous one. The second rule, which is rarely satisfied in most of the existing methods, is the core of the VISSA strategy. Compared with some promising variable selection methods such as competitive adaptive reweighted sampling (CARS), Monte Carlo uninformative variable elimination (MCUVE) and iteratively retaining informative variables (IRIV), VISSA showed better prediction ability for the calibration of NIR data. In addition, VISSA is user-friendly; only a few insensitive parameters are needed, and the program terminates automatically without any additional conditions. The Matlab codes for implementing VISSA are freely available on the website: https://sourceforge.net/projects/multivariateanalysis/files/VISSA/.

Estimating the residential demand function for natural gas in Seoul with correction for sample selection bias

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Seung-Hoon; Lim, Hea-Jin; Kwak, Seung-Jun

2009-01-01

Over the last twenty years, the consumption of natural gas in Korea has increased dramatically. This increase has mainly resulted from the rise of consumption in the residential sector. The main objective of the study is to estimate households' demand function for natural gas by applying a sample selection model using data from a survey of households in Seoul. The results show that there exists a selection bias in the sample and that failure to correct for sample selection bias distorts the mean estimate, of the demand for natural gas, downward by 48.1%. In addition, according to the estimation results, the size of the house, the dummy variable for dwelling in an apartment, the dummy variable for having a bed in an inner room, and the household's income all have positive relationships with the demand for natural gas. On the other hand, the size of the family and the price of gas negatively contribute to the demand for natural gas. (author)

Data Quality Objectives For Selecting Waste Samples For Bench-Scale Reformer Treatability Studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banning, D.L.

2011-01-01

This document describes the data quality objectives to select archived samples located at the 222-S Laboratory for Bench-Scale Reforming testing. The type, quantity, and quality of the data required to select the samples for Fluid Bed Steam Reformer testing are discussed. In order to maximize the efficiency and minimize the time to treat Hanford tank waste in the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, additional treatment processes may be required. One of the potential treatment processes is the fluidized bed steam reformer. A determination of the adequacy of the fluidized bed steam reformer process to treat Hanford tank waste is required. The initial step in determining the adequacy of the fluidized bed steam reformer process is to select archived waste samples from the 222-S Laboratory that will be used in a bench scale tests. Analyses of the selected samples will be required to confirm the samples meet the shipping requirements and for comparison to the bench scale reformer (BSR) test sample selection requirements.

On sampling and modeling complex systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marsili, Matteo; Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Roudi, Yasser

2013-01-01

The study of complex systems is limited by the fact that only a few variables are accessible for modeling and sampling, which are not necessarily the most relevant ones to explain the system behavior. In addition, empirical data typically undersample the space of possible states. We study a generic framework where a complex system is seen as a system of many interacting degrees of freedom, which are known only in part, that optimize a given function. We show that the underlying distribution with respect to the known variables has the Boltzmann form, with a temperature that depends on the number of unknown variables. In particular, when the influence of the unknown degrees of freedom on the known variables is not too irregular, the temperature decreases as the number of variables increases. This suggests that models can be predictable only when the number of relevant variables is less than a critical threshold. Concerning sampling, we argue that the information that a sample contains on the behavior of the system is quantified by the entropy of the frequency with which different states occur. This allows us to characterize the properties of maximally informative samples: within a simple approximation, the most informative frequency size distributions have power law behavior and Zipf’s law emerges at the crossover between the under sampled regime and the regime where the sample contains enough statistics to make inferences on the behavior of the system. These ideas are illustrated in some applications, showing that they can be used to identify relevant variables or to select the most informative representations of data, e.g. in data clustering. (paper)

Robust online tracking via adaptive samples selection with saliency detection

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Jia; Chen, Xi; Zhu, QiuPing

2013-12-01

Online tracking has shown to be successful in tracking of previously unknown objects. However, there are two important factors which lead to drift problem of online tracking, the one is how to select the exact labeled samples even when the target locations are inaccurate, and the other is how to handle the confusors which have similar features with the target. In this article, we propose a robust online tracking algorithm with adaptive samples selection based on saliency detection to overcome the drift problem. To deal with the problem of degrading the classifiers using mis-aligned samples, we introduce the saliency detection method to our tracking problem. Saliency maps and the strong classifiers are combined to extract the most correct positive samples. Our approach employs a simple yet saliency detection algorithm based on image spectral residual analysis. Furthermore, instead of using the random patches as the negative samples, we propose a reasonable selection criterion, in which both the saliency confidence and similarity are considered with the benefits that confusors in the surrounding background are incorporated into the classifiers update process before the drift occurs. The tracking task is formulated as a binary classification via online boosting framework. Experiment results in several challenging video sequences demonstrate the accuracy and stability of our tracker.

40 CFR 205.57-2 - Test vehicle sample selection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... pursuant to a test request in accordance with this subpart will be selected in the manner specified in the... then using a table of random numbers to select the number of vehicles as specified in paragraph (c) of... with the desig-nated AQL are contained in Appendix I, -Table II. (c) The appropriate batch sample size...

Selection of the Sample for Data-Driven $Z \\to \

CERN Document Server

Krauss, Martin

2009-01-01

The topic of this study was to improve the selection of the sample for data-driven Z → ν ν background estimation, which is a major contribution in supersymmetric searches in ̄ a no-lepton search mode. The data is based on Z → + − samples using data created with ATLAS simulation software. This method works if two leptons are reconstructed, but using cuts that are typical for SUSY searches reconstruction efficiency for electrons and muons is rather low. For this reason it was tried to enhance the data sample. Therefore events were considered, where only one electron was reconstructed. In this case the invariant mass for the electron and each jet was computed to select the jet with the best match for the Z boson mass as not reconstructed electron. This way the sample can be extended but significantly looses purity because of also reconstructed background events. To improve this method other variables have to be considered which were not available for this study. Applying a similar method to muons using ...

Failure Probability Estimation Using Asymptotic Sampling and Its Dependence upon the Selected Sampling Scheme

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martinásková Magdalena

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article examines the use of Asymptotic Sampling (AS for the estimation of failure probability. The AS algorithm requires samples of multidimensional Gaussian random vectors, which may be obtained by many alternative means that influence the performance of the AS method. Several reliability problems (test functions have been selected in order to test AS with various sampling schemes: (i Monte Carlo designs; (ii LHS designs optimized using the Periodic Audze-Eglājs (PAE criterion; (iii designs prepared using Sobol’ sequences. All results are compared with the exact failure probability value.

Post-model selection inference and model averaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georges Nguefack-Tsague

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.

Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiping Yang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

Obscured AGN at z ~ 1 from the zCOSMOS-Bright Survey. I. Selection and optical properties of a [Ne v]-selected sample

Science.gov (United States)

Mignoli, M.; Vignali, C.; Gilli, R.; Comastri, A.; Zamorani, G.; Bolzonella, M.; Bongiorno, A.; Lamareille, F.; Nair, P.; Pozzetti, L.; Lilly, S. J.; Carollo, C. M.; Contini, T.; Kneib, J.-P.; Le Fèvre, O.; Mainieri, V.; Renzini, A.; Scodeggio, M.; Bardelli, S.; Caputi, K.; Cucciati, O.; de la Torre, S.; de Ravel, L.; Franzetti, P.; Garilli, B.; Iovino, A.; Kampczyk, P.; Knobel, C.; Kovač, K.; Le Borgne, J.-F.; Le Brun, V.; Maier, C.; Pellò, R.; Peng, Y.; Perez Montero, E.; Presotto, V.; Silverman, J. D.; Tanaka, M.; Tasca, L.; Tresse, L.; Vergani, D.; Zucca, E.; Bordoloi, R.; Cappi, A.; Cimatti, A.; Koekemoer, A. M.; McCracken, H. J.; Moresco, M.; Welikala, N.

2013-08-01

Aims: The application of multi-wavelength selection techniques is essential for obtaining a complete and unbiased census of active galactic nuclei (AGN). We present here a method for selecting z ~ 1 obscured AGN from optical spectroscopic surveys. Methods: A sample of 94 narrow-line AGN with 0.65 advantage of the large amount of data available in the COSMOS field, the properties of the [Ne v]-selected type 2 AGN were investigated, focusing on their host galaxies, X-ray emission, and optical line-flux ratios. Finally, a previously developed diagnostic, based on the X-ray-to-[Ne v] luminosity ratio, was exploited to search for the more heavily obscured AGN. Results: We found that [Ne v]-selected narrow-line AGN have Seyfert 2-like optical spectra, although their emission line ratios are diluted by a star-forming component. The ACS morphologies and stellar component in the optical spectra indicate a preference for our type 2 AGN to be hosted in early-type spirals with stellar masses greater than 109.5 - 10 M⊙, on average higher than those of the galaxy parent sample. The fraction of galaxies hosting [Ne v]-selected obscured AGN increases with the stellar mass, reaching a maximum of about 3% at ≈2 × 1011 M⊙. A comparison with other selection techniques at z ~ 1, namely the line-ratio diagnostics and X-ray detections, shows that the detection of the [Ne v] λ3426 line is an effective method for selecting AGN in the optical band, in particular the most heavily obscured ones, but cannot provide a complete census of type 2 AGN by itself. Finally, the high fraction of [Ne v]-selected type 2 AGN not detected in medium-deep (≈100-200 ks) Chandra observations (67%) is suggestive of the inclusion of Compton-thick (i.e., with NH > 1024 cm-2) sources in our sample. The presence of a population of heavily obscured AGN is corroborated by the X-ray-to-[Ne v] ratio; we estimated, by means of an X-ray stacking technique and simulations, that the Compton-thick fraction in our

A bayesian hierarchical model for classification with selection of functional predictors.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Hongxiao; Vannucci, Marina; Cox, Dennis D

2010-06-01

In functional data classification, functional observations are often contaminated by various systematic effects, such as random batch effects caused by device artifacts, or fixed effects caused by sample-related factors. These effects may lead to classification bias and thus should not be neglected. Another issue of concern is the selection of functions when predictors consist of multiple functions, some of which may be redundant. The above issues arise in a real data application where we use fluorescence spectroscopy to detect cervical precancer. In this article, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that takes into account random batch effects and selects effective functions among multiple functional predictors. Fixed effects or predictors in nonfunctional form are also included in the model. The dimension of the functional data is reduced through orthonormal basis expansion or functional principal components. For posterior sampling, we use a hybrid Metropolis-Hastings/Gibbs sampler, which suffers slow mixing. An evolutionary Monte Carlo algorithm is applied to improve the mixing. Simulation and real data application show that the proposed model provides accurate selection of functional predictors as well as good classification.

40 CFR 205.171-2 - Test exhaust system sample selection and preparation.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Systems § 205.171-2 Test exhaust system sample selection and preparation. (a)(1) Exhaust systems... 40 Protection of Environment 24 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Test exhaust system sample selection and preparation. 205.171-2 Section 205.171-2 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY...

Selective information sampling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter A. F. Fraser-Mackenzie

2009-06-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the amount and valence of information selected during single item evaluation. One hundred and thirty-five participants evaluated a cell phone by reading hypothetical customers reports. Some participants were first asked to provide a preliminary rating based on a picture of the phone and some technical specifications. The participants who were given the customer reports only after they made a preliminary rating exhibited valence bias in their selection of customers reports. In contrast, the participants that did not make an initial rating sought subsequent information in a more balanced, albeit still selective, manner. The preliminary raters used the least amount of information in their final decision, resulting in faster decision times. The study appears to support the notion that selective exposure is utilized in order to develop cognitive coherence.

An improved selective sampling method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miyahara, Hiroshi; Iida, Nobuyuki; Watanabe, Tamaki

1986-01-01

The coincidence methods which are currently used for the accurate activity standardisation of radio-nuclides, require dead time and resolving time corrections which tend to become increasingly uncertain as countrates exceed about 10 K. To reduce the dependence on such corrections, Muller, in 1981, proposed the selective sampling method using a fast multichannel analyser (50 ns ch -1 ) for measuring the countrates. It is, in many ways, more convenient and possibly potentially more reliable to replace the MCA with scalers and a circuit is described employing five scalers; two of them serving to measure the background correction. Results of comparisons using our new method and the coincidence method for measuring the activity of 60 Co sources yielded agree-ment within statistical uncertainties. (author)

A Heckman selection model for the safety analysis of signalized intersections.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuecai Xu

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to provide a new method for estimating crash rate and severity simultaneously.This study explores a Heckman selection model of the crash rate and severity simultaneously at different levels and a two-step procedure is used to investigate the crash rate and severity levels. The first step uses a probit regression model to determine the sample selection process, and the second step develops a multiple regression model to simultaneously evaluate the crash rate and severity for slight injury/kill or serious injury (KSI, respectively. The model uses 555 observations from 262 signalized intersections in the Hong Kong metropolitan area, integrated with information on the traffic flow, geometric road design, road environment, traffic control and any crashes that occurred during two years.The results of the proposed two-step Heckman selection model illustrate the necessity of different crash rates for different crash severity levels.A comparison with the existing approaches suggests that the Heckman selection model offers an efficient and convenient alternative method for evaluating the safety performance at signalized intersections.

Mineral Composition of Selected Serbian Propolis Samples

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Tosic Snezana

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The aim of this work was to determine the content of 22 macro- and microelements in ten raw Serbian propolis samples which differ in geographical and botanical origin as well as in polluted agent contents by atomic emission spectrometry with inductively coupled plasma (ICP-OES. The macroelements were more common and present Ca content was the highest while Na content the lowest. Among the studied essential trace elements Fe was the most common element. The levels of toxic elements (Pb, Cd, As and Hg were also analyzed, since they were possible environmental contaminants that could be transferred into propolis products for human consumption. As and Hg were not detected in any of the analyzed samples but a high level of Pb (2.0-9.7 mg/kg was detected and only selected portions of raw propolis could be used to produce natural medicines and dietary supplements for humans. Obtained results were statistically analyzed, and the examined samples showed a wide range of element content.

Does self-selection affect samples' representativeness in online surveys? An investigation in online video game research.

Science.gov (United States)

Khazaal, Yasser; van Singer, Mathias; Chatton, Anne; Achab, Sophia; Zullino, Daniele; Rothen, Stephane; Khan, Riaz; Billieux, Joel; Thorens, Gabriel

2014-07-07

The number of medical studies performed through online surveys has increased dramatically in recent years. Despite their numerous advantages (eg, sample size, facilitated access to individuals presenting stigmatizing issues), selection bias may exist in online surveys. However, evidence on the representativeness of self-selected samples in online studies is patchy. Our objective was to explore the representativeness of a self-selected sample of online gamers using online players' virtual characters (avatars). All avatars belonged to individuals playing World of Warcraft (WoW), currently the most widely used online game. Avatars' characteristics were defined using various games' scores, reported on the WoW's official website, and two self-selected samples from previous studies were compared with a randomly selected sample of avatars. We used scores linked to 1240 avatars (762 from the self-selected samples and 478 from the random sample). The two self-selected samples of avatars had higher scores on most of the assessed variables (except for guild membership and exploration). Furthermore, some guilds were overrepresented in the self-selected samples. Our results suggest that more proficient players or players more involved in the game may be more likely to participate in online surveys. Caution is needed in the interpretation of studies based on online surveys that used a self-selection recruitment procedure. Epidemiological evidence on the reduced representativeness of sample of online surveys is warranted.

Mixed Frequency Data Sampling Regression Models: The R Package midasr

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Eric Ghysels

2016-08-01

Full Text Available When modeling economic relationships it is increasingly common to encounter data sampled at different frequencies. We introduce the R package midasr which enables estimating regression models with variables sampled at different frequencies within a MIDAS regression framework put forward in work by Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2002. In this article we define a general autoregressive MIDAS regression model with multiple variables of different frequencies and show how it can be specified using the familiar R formula interface and estimated using various optimization methods chosen by the researcher. We discuss how to check the validity of the estimated model both in terms of numerical convergence and statistical adequacy of a chosen regression specification, how to perform model selection based on a information criterion, how to assess forecasting accuracy of the MIDAS regression model and how to obtain a forecast aggregation of different MIDAS regression models. We illustrate the capabilities of the package with a simulated MIDAS regression model and give two empirical examples of application of MIDAS regression.

Model Selection in Historical Research Using Approximate Bayesian Computation

Science.gov (United States)

Rubio-Campillo, Xavier

2016-01-01

Formal Models and History Computational models are increasingly being used to study historical dynamics. This new trend, which could be named Model-Based History, makes use of recently published datasets and innovative quantitative methods to improve our understanding of past societies based on their written sources. The extensive use of formal models allows historians to re-evaluate hypotheses formulated decades ago and still subject to debate due to the lack of an adequate quantitative framework. The initiative has the potential to transform the discipline if it solves the challenges posed by the study of historical dynamics. These difficulties are based on the complexities of modelling social interaction, and the methodological issues raised by the evaluation of formal models against data with low sample size, high variance and strong fragmentation. Case Study This work examines an alternate approach to this evaluation based on a Bayesian-inspired model selection method. The validity of the classical Lanchester’s laws of combat is examined against a dataset comprising over a thousand battles spanning 300 years. Four variations of the basic equations are discussed, including the three most common formulations (linear, squared, and logarithmic) and a new variant introducing fatigue. Approximate Bayesian Computation is then used to infer both parameter values and model selection via Bayes Factors. Impact Results indicate decisive evidence favouring the new fatigue model. The interpretation of both parameter estimations and model selection provides new insights into the factors guiding the evolution of warfare. At a methodological level, the case study shows how model selection methods can be used to guide historical research through the comparison between existing hypotheses and empirical evidence. PMID:26730953

Statistical sampling strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.

1987-01-01

Systems assessment codes use mathematical models to simulate natural and engineered systems. Probabilistic systems assessment codes carry out multiple simulations to reveal the uncertainty in values of output variables due to uncertainty in the values of the model parameters. In this paper, methods are described for sampling sets of parameter values to be used in a probabilistic systems assessment code. Three Monte Carlo parameter selection methods are discussed: simple random sampling, Latin hypercube sampling, and sampling using two-level orthogonal arrays. Three post-selection transformations are also described: truncation, importance transformation, and discretization. Advantages and disadvantages of each method are summarized

Measures and limits of models of fixation selection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niklas Wilming

Full Text Available Models of fixation selection are a central tool in the quest to understand how the human mind selects relevant information. Using this tool in the evaluation of competing claims often requires comparing different models' relative performance in predicting eye movements. However, studies use a wide variety of performance measures with markedly different properties, which makes a comparison difficult. We make three main contributions to this line of research: First we argue for a set of desirable properties, review commonly used measures, and conclude that no single measure unites all desirable properties. However the area under the ROC curve (a classification measure and the KL-divergence (a distance measure of probability distributions combine many desirable properties and allow a meaningful comparison of critical model performance. We give an analytical proof of the linearity of the ROC measure with respect to averaging over subjects and demonstrate an appropriate correction of entropy-based measures like KL-divergence for small sample sizes in the context of eye-tracking data. Second, we provide a lower bound and an upper bound of these measures, based on image-independent properties of fixation data and between subject consistency respectively. Based on these bounds it is possible to give a reference frame to judge the predictive power of a model of fixation selection. We provide open-source python code to compute the reference frame. Third, we show that the upper, between subject consistency bound holds only for models that predict averages of subject populations. Departing from this we show that incorporating subject-specific viewing behavior can generate predictions which surpass that upper bound. Taken together, these findings lay out the required information that allow a well-founded judgment of the quality of any model of fixation selection and should therefore be reported when a new model is introduced.

PeptideManager: A Peptide Selection Tool for Targeted Proteomic Studies Involving Mixed Samples from Different Species

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kevin eDemeure

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The search for clinically useful protein biomarkers using advanced mass spectrometry approaches represents a major focus in cancer research. However, the direct analysis of human samples may be challenging due to limited availability, the absence of appropriate control samples, or the large background variability observed in patient material. As an alternative approach, human tumors orthotopically implanted into a different species (xenografts are clinically relevant models that have proven their utility in pre-clinical research. Patient derived xenografts for glioblastoma have been extensively characterized in our laboratory and have been shown to retain the characteristics of the parental tumor at the phenotypic and genetic level. Such models were also found to adequately mimic the behavior and treatment response of human tumors. The reproducibility of such xenograft models, the possibility to identify their host background and perform tumor-host interaction studies, are major advantages over the direct analysis of human samples.At the proteome level, the analysis of xenograft samples is challenged by the presence of proteins from two different species which, depending on tumor size, type or location, often appear at variable ratios. Any proteomics approach aimed at quantifying proteins within such samples must consider the identification of species specific peptides in order to avoid biases introduced by the host proteome. Here, we present an in-house methodology and tool developed to select peptides used as surrogates for protein candidates from a defined proteome (e.g., human in a host proteome background (e.g., mouse, rat suited for a mass spectrometry analysis. The tools presented here are applicable to any species specific proteome, provided a protein database is available. By linking the information from both proteomes, PeptideManager significantly facilitates and expedites the selection of peptides used as surrogates to analyze

40 CFR 761.247 - Sample site selection for pipe segment removal.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... end of the pipe segment. (3) If the pipe segment is cut with a saw or other mechanical device, take..., take samples from a total of seven segments. (A) Sample the first and last segments removed. (B) Select... total length for purposes of disposal, take samples of each segment that is 1/2 mile distant from the...

Fixation probability in a two-locus intersexual selection model.

Science.gov (United States)

Durand, Guillermo; Lessard, Sabin

2016-06-01

We study a two-locus model of intersexual selection in a finite haploid population reproducing according to a discrete-time Moran model with a trait locus expressed in males and a preference locus expressed in females. We show that the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele for a male ornament introduced at random at the trait locus given any initial frequency state at the preference locus is increased by weak intersexual selection and recombination, weak or strong. Moreover, this probability exceeds the initial frequency of the mutant allele even in the case of a costly male ornament if intersexual selection is not too weak. On the other hand, the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele for a female preference towards a male ornament introduced at random at the preference locus is increased by weak intersexual selection and weak recombination if the female preference is not costly, and is strong enough in the case of a costly male ornament. The analysis relies on an extension of the ancestral recombination-selection graph for samples of haplotypes to take into account events of intersexual selection, while the symbolic calculation of the fixation probabilities is made possible in a reasonable time by an optimizing algorithm. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model selection in periodic autoregressions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

1994-01-01

textabstractThis paper focuses on the issue of period autoagressive time series models (PAR) selection in practice. One aspect of model selection is the choice for the appropriate PAR order. This can be of interest for the valuation of economic models. Further, the appropriate PAR order is important

SNP calling using genotype model selection on high-throughput sequencing data

KAUST Repository

You, Na; Murillo, Gabriel; Su, Xiaoquan; Zeng, Xiaowei; Xu, Jian; Ning, Kang; Zhang, ShouDong; Zhu, Jian-Kang; Cui, Xinping

2012-01-01

calling SNPs. Thus, errors not involved in base-calling or alignment, such as those in genomic sample preparation, are not accounted for.Results: A novel method of consensus and SNP calling, Genotype Model Selection (GeMS), is given which accounts

Measurement of radioactivity in the environment - Soil - Part 2: Guidance for the selection of the sampling strategy, sampling and pre-treatment of samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This part of ISO 18589 specifies the general requirements, based on ISO 11074 and ISO/IEC 17025, for all steps in the planning (desk study and area reconnaissance) of the sampling and the preparation of samples for testing. It includes the selection of the sampling strategy, the outline of the sampling plan, the presentation of general sampling methods and equipment, as well as the methodology of the pre-treatment of samples adapted to the measurements of the activity of radionuclides in soil. This part of ISO 18589 is addressed to the people responsible for determining the radioactivity present in soil for the purpose of radiation protection. It is applicable to soil from gardens, farmland, urban or industrial sites, as well as soil not affected by human activities. This part of ISO 18589 is applicable to all laboratories regardless of the number of personnel or the range of the testing performed. When a laboratory does not undertake one or more of the activities covered by this part of ISO 18589, such as planning, sampling or testing, the corresponding requirements do not apply. Information is provided on scope, normative references, terms and definitions and symbols, principle, sampling strategy, sampling plan, sampling process, pre-treatment of samples and recorded information. Five annexes inform about selection of the sampling strategy according to the objectives and the radiological characterization of the site and sampling areas, diagram of the evolution of the sample characteristics from the sampling site to the laboratory, example of sampling plan for a site divided in three sampling areas, example of a sampling record for a single/composite sample and example for a sample record for a soil profile with soil description. A bibliography is provided

A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2018-03-01

Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

Field-based random sampling without a sampling frame: control selection for a case-control study in rural Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Crampin, A C; Mwinuka, V; Malema, S S; Glynn, J R; Fine, P E

2001-01-01

Selection bias, particularly of controls, is common in case-control studies and may materially affect the results. Methods of control selection should be tailored both for the risk factors and disease under investigation and for the population being studied. We present here a control selection method devised for a case-control study of tuberculosis in rural Africa (Karonga, northern Malawi) that selects an age/sex frequency-matched random sample of the population, with a geographical distribution in proportion to the population density. We also present an audit of the selection process, and discuss the potential of this method in other settings.

A simple approach to power and sample size calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaeth, Michael; Skovlund, Eva

2004-06-15

For a given regression problem it is possible to identify a suitably defined equivalent two-sample problem such that the power or sample size obtained for the two-sample problem also applies to the regression problem. For a standard linear regression model the equivalent two-sample problem is easily identified, but for generalized linear models and for Cox regression models the situation is more complicated. An approximately equivalent two-sample problem may, however, also be identified here. In particular, we show that for logistic regression and Cox regression models the equivalent two-sample problem is obtained by selecting two equally sized samples for which the parameters differ by a value equal to the slope times twice the standard deviation of the independent variable and further requiring that the overall expected number of events is unchanged. In a simulation study we examine the validity of this approach to power calculations in logistic regression and Cox regression models. Several different covariate distributions are considered for selected values of the overall response probability and a range of alternatives. For the Cox regression model we consider both constant and non-constant hazard rates. The results show that in general the approach is remarkably accurate even in relatively small samples. Some discrepancies are, however, found in small samples with few events and a highly skewed covariate distribution. Comparison with results based on alternative methods for logistic regression models with a single continuous covariate indicates that the proposed method is at least as good as its competitors. The method is easy to implement and therefore provides a simple way to extend the range of problems that can be covered by the usual formulas for power and sample size determination. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Proposal for selecting an ore sample from mining shaft under Kvanefjeld

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund Clausen, F.

1979-02-01

Uranium ore recovered from the tunnel under Kvanefjeld (Greenland) will be processed in a pilot plant. Selection of a fully representative ore sample for both the whole area and single local sites is discussed. A FORTRAN program for ore distribution is presented, in order to enable correct sampling. (EG)

Flora sampling in the vicinity of gamma greenhouse: As a flora sampling model for supporting the national nuclear power program (NPP)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Affrida Abu Hassan; Zaiton Ahmad; Ros Anita Ahmad Ramli; Shakinah Salleh; Norazlina Noordin; Salmah Moosa; Sakinah Ariffin; Salahbiah Abdul Majid; Nur Humaira Lau Abdullah; Mohd Zaidan Kandar; Abdul Rahim Harun

2012-01-01

Gamma Green House was used as a model to study radiation effects on flora and ecosystems in supporting the National Nuclear Power Programme (NPP). A task force was formed in BAB which consists of 3 main groups of flora, fauna and microorganisms. For the flora group, two sampling expeditions have been carried out on July 7, 2011 and March 2, 2012 with the assistant of experts from University Putra Malaysia. From these expeditions, a preliminary data on the types and distribution of plants in selected quadrants close to the Gamma Greenhouse has been successfully observed and the collected plant samples have been preserved as part of the herbarium collection. This paper will describe on the sampling activities and sample preservation. Knowledge gained from this study will be very useful as model for flora distribution baseline data at plant site(author)

Varying Coefficient Panel Data Model in the Presence of Endogenous Selectivity and Fixed Effects

OpenAIRE

Malikov, Emir; Kumbhakar, Subal C.; Sun, Yiguo

2013-01-01

This paper considers a flexible panel data sample selection model in which (i) the outcome equation is permitted to take a semiparametric, varying coefficient form to capture potential parameter heterogeneity in the relationship of interest, (ii) both the outcome and (parametric) selection equations contain unobserved fixed effects and (iii) selection is generalized to a polychotomous case. We propose a two-stage estimator. Given consistent parameter estimates from the selection equation obta...

Selection Component Analysis of Natural Polymorphisms using Population Samples Including Mother-Offspring Combinations, II

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jarmer, Hanne Østergaard; Christiansen, Freddy Bugge

1981-01-01

Population samples including mother-offspring combinations provide information on the selection components: zygotic selection, sexual selection, gametic seletion and fecundity selection, on the mating pattern, and on the deviation from linkage equilibrium among the loci studied. The theory...

Privacy problems in the small sample selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loredana Cerbara

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The side of social research that uses small samples for the production of micro data, today finds some operating difficulties due to the privacy law. The privacy code is a really important and necessary law because it guarantees the Italian citizen’s rights, as already happens in other Countries of the world. However it does not seem appropriate to limit once more the possibilities of the data production of the national centres of research. That possibilities are already moreover compromised due to insufficient founds is a common problem becoming more and more frequent in the research field. It would be necessary, therefore, to include in the law the possibility to use telephonic lists to select samples useful for activities directly of interest and importance to the citizen, such as the collection of the data carried out on the basis of opinion polls by the centres of research of the Italian CNR and some universities.

Data Quality Objectives For Selecting Waste Samples To Test The Fluid Bed Steam Reformer Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banning, D.L.

2010-01-01

This document describes the data quality objectives to select archived samples located at the 222-S Laboratory for Fluid Bed Steam Reformer testing. The type, quantity and quality of the data required to select the samples for Fluid Bed Steam Reformer testing are discussed. In order to maximize the efficiency and minimize the time to treat Hanford tank waste in the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, additional treatment processes may be required. One of the potential treatment processes is the fluid bed steam reformer (FBSR). A determination of the adequacy of the FBSR process to treat Hanford tank waste is required. The initial step in determining the adequacy of the FBSR process is to select archived waste samples from the 222-S Laboratory that will be used to test the FBSR process. Analyses of the selected samples will be required to confirm the samples meet the testing criteria.

Approaches to sampling and case selection in qualitative research: examples in the geography of health.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, S; Gesler, W; Smith, G; Washburn, S

2000-04-01

This paper focuses on the question of sampling (or selection of cases) in qualitative research. Although the literature includes some very useful discussions of qualitative sampling strategies, the question of sampling often seems to receive less attention in methodological discussion than questions of how data is collected or is analysed. Decisions about sampling are likely to be important in many qualitative studies (although it may not be an issue in some research). There are varying accounts of the principles applicable to sampling or case selection. Those who espouse 'theoretical sampling', based on a 'grounded theory' approach, are in some ways opposed to those who promote forms of 'purposive sampling' suitable for research informed by an existing body of social theory. Diversity also results from the many different methods for drawing purposive samples which are applicable to qualitative research. We explore the value of a framework suggested by Miles and Huberman [Miles, M., Huberman,, A., 1994. Qualitative Data Analysis, Sage, London.], to evaluate the sampling strategies employed in three examples of research by the authors. Our examples comprise three studies which respectively involve selection of: 'healing places'; rural places which incorporated national anti-malarial policies; young male interviewees, identified as either chronically ill or disabled. The examples are used to show how in these three studies the (sometimes conflicting) requirements of the different criteria were resolved, as well as the potential and constraints placed on the research by the selection decisions which were made. We also consider how far the criteria Miles and Huberman suggest seem helpful for planning 'sample' selection in qualitative research.

Polymer platforms for selective detection of cocaine in street samples adulterated with levamisole.

Science.gov (United States)

Florea, Anca; Cowen, Todd; Piletsky, Sergey; De Wael, Karolien

2018-08-15

Accurate drug detection is of utmost importance for fighting against drug abuse. With a high number of cutting agents and adulterants being added to cut or mask drugs in street powders the number of false results is increasing. We demonstrate for the first time the usefulness of employing polymers readily synthesized by electrodeposition to selectively detect cocaine in the presence of the commonly used adulterant levamisole. The polymers were selected by computational modelling to exhibit high binding affinity towards cocaine and deposited directly on the surface of graphene-modified electrodes via electropolymerization. The resulting platforms allowed a distinct electrochemical signal for cocaine, which is otherwise suppressed by levamisole. Square wave voltammetry was used to quantify cocaine alone and in the presence of levamisole. The usefulness of the platforms was demonstrated in the screening of real street samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dispersion modeling of selected PAHs in urban air: A new approach combining dispersion model with GIS and passive air sampling

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Sáňka, O.; Melymuk, L.; Čupr, P.; Dvorská, Alice; Klánová, J.

2014-01-01

Roč. 90, oct (2014), s. 88-95 ISSN 1352-2310 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : passive air sampling * air dispersion modeling * GIS * polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons * emission inventories Subject RIV: DI - Air Pollution ; Quality Impact factor: 3.281, year: 2014

New sorbent materials for selective extraction of cocaine and benzoylecgonine from human urine samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Bujak, Renata; Gadzała-Kopciuch, Renata; Nowaczyk, Alicja; Raczak-Gutknecht, Joanna; Kordalewska, Marta; Struck-Lewicka, Wiktoria; Waszczuk-Jankowska, Małgorzata; Tomczak, Ewa; Kaliszan, Michał; Buszewski, Bogusław; Markuszewski, Michał J

2016-02-20

An increase in cocaine consumption has been observed in Europe during the last decade. Benzoylecgonine, as a main urinary metabolite of cocaine in human, is so far the most reliable marker of cocaine consumption. Determination of cocaine and its metabolite in complex biological samples as urine or blood, requires efficient and selective sample pretreatment. In this preliminary study, the newly synthesized sorbent materials were proposed for selective extraction of cocaine and benzoylecgonine from urine samples. Application of these sorbent media allowed to determine cocaine and benzoylecgonine in urine samples at the concentration level of 100ng/ml with good recovery values as 81.7%±6.6 and 73.8%±4.2, respectively. The newly synthesized materials provided efficient, inexpensive and selective extraction of both cocaine and benzoylecgonine from urine samples, which can consequently lead to an increase of the sensitivity of the current available screening diagnostic tests. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Drichoutis, Andreas C; Lusk, Jayson L

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andreas C Drichoutis

Full Text Available Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

Science.gov (United States)

Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

2009-06-01

Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

The Impact of Selection, Gene Conversion, and Biased Sampling on the Assessment of Microbial Demography.

Science.gov (United States)

Lapierre, Marguerite; Blin, Camille; Lambert, Amaury; Achaz, Guillaume; Rocha, Eduardo P C

2016-07-01

Recent studies have linked demographic changes and epidemiological patterns in bacterial populations using coalescent-based approaches. We identified 26 studies using skyline plots and found that 21 inferred overall population expansion. This surprising result led us to analyze the impact of natural selection, recombination (gene conversion), and sampling biases on demographic inference using skyline plots and site frequency spectra (SFS). Forward simulations based on biologically relevant parameters from Escherichia coli populations showed that theoretical arguments on the detrimental impact of recombination and especially natural selection on the reconstructed genealogies cannot be ignored in practice. In fact, both processes systematically lead to spurious interpretations of population expansion in skyline plots (and in SFS for selection). Weak purifying selection, and especially positive selection, had important effects on skyline plots, showing patterns akin to those of population expansions. State-of-the-art techniques to remove recombination further amplified these biases. We simulated three common sampling biases in microbiological research: uniform, clustered, and mixed sampling. Alone, or together with recombination and selection, they further mislead demographic inferences producing almost any possible skyline shape or SFS. Interestingly, sampling sub-populations also affected skyline plots and SFS, because the coalescent rates of populations and their sub-populations had different distributions. This study suggests that extreme caution is needed to infer demographic changes solely based on reconstructed genealogies. We suggest that the development of novel sampling strategies and the joint analyzes of diverse population genetic methods are strictly necessary to estimate demographic changes in populations where selection, recombination, and biased sampling are present. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for

Sampling point selection for energy estimation in the quasicontinuum method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beex, L.A.A.; Peerlings, R.H.J.; Geers, M.G.D.

2010-01-01

The quasicontinuum (QC) method reduces computational costs of atomistic calculations by using interpolation between a small number of so-called repatoms to represent the displacements of the complete lattice and by selecting a small number of sampling atoms to estimate the total potential energy of

Selection of the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter for modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility

OpenAIRE

Shang, Han Lin

2015-01-01

The Box-Cox transformation can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. Despite its importance, there have been few studies focusing on the optimal selection of Box-Cox transformation parameters in demographic forecasting. A simple method is proposed for selecting the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter, along with an algorithm based on an in-sample forecast ...

Effective traffic features selection algorithm for cyber-attacks samples

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yihong; Liu, Fangzheng; Du, Zhenyu

2018-05-01

By studying the defense scheme of Network attacks, this paper propose an effective traffic features selection algorithm based on k-means++ clustering to deal with the problem of high dimensionality of traffic features which extracted from cyber-attacks samples. Firstly, this algorithm divide the original feature set into attack traffic feature set and background traffic feature set by the clustering. Then, we calculates the variation of clustering performance after removing a certain feature. Finally, evaluating the degree of distinctiveness of the feature vector according to the result. Among them, the effective feature vector is whose degree of distinctiveness exceeds the set threshold. The purpose of this paper is to select out the effective features from the extracted original feature set. In this way, it can reduce the dimensionality of the features so as to reduce the space-time overhead of subsequent detection. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm is feasible and it has some advantages over other selection algorithms.

Random selection of items. Selection of n1 samples among N items composing a stratum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaech, J.L.; Lemaire, R.J.

1987-02-01

STR-224 provides generalized procedures to determine required sample sizes, for instance in the course of a Physical Inventory Verification at Bulk Handling Facilities. The present report describes procedures to generate random numbers and select groups of items to be verified in a given stratum through each of the measurement methods involved in the verification. (author). 3 refs

Sample sizes and model comparison metrics for species distribution models

Science.gov (United States)

B.B. Hanberry; H.S. He; D.C. Dey

2012-01-01

Species distribution models use small samples to produce continuous distribution maps. The question of how small a sample can be to produce an accurate model generally has been answered based on comparisons to maximum sample sizes of 200 observations or fewer. In addition, model comparisons often are made with the kappa statistic, which has become controversial....

Covariate selection for the semiparametric additive risk model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, Torben; Scheike, Thomas

2009-01-01

This paper considers covariate selection for the additive hazards model. This model is particularly simple to study theoretically and its practical implementation has several major advantages to the similar methodology for the proportional hazards model. One complication compared...... and study their large sample properties for the situation where the number of covariates p is smaller than the number of observations. We also show that the adaptive Lasso has the oracle property. In many practical situations, it is more relevant to tackle the situation with large p compared with the number...... of observations. We do this by studying the properties of the so-called Dantzig selector in the setting of the additive risk model. Specifically, we establish a bound on how close the solution is to a true sparse signal in the case where the number of covariates is large. In a simulation study, we also compare...

Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide

40 CFR 761.308 - Sample selection by random number generation on any two-dimensional square grid.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sample selection by random number... § 761.79(b)(3) § 761.308 Sample selection by random number generation on any two-dimensional square... area created in accordance with paragraph (a) of this section, select two random numbers: one each for...

Frequency-Selective Signal Sensing with Sub-Nyquist Uniform Sampling Scheme

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pierzchlewski, Jacek; Arildsen, Thomas

2015-01-01

In this paper the authors discuss a problem of acquisition and reconstruction of a signal polluted by adjacent- channel interference. The authors propose a method to find a sub-Nyquist uniform sampling pattern which allows for correct reconstruction of selected frequencies. The method is inspired...... by the Restricted Isometry Property, which is known from the field of compressed sensing. Then, compressed sensing is used to successfully reconstruct a wanted signal even if some of the uniform samples were randomly lost, e. g. due to ADC saturation. An experiment which tests the proposed method in practice...

Laser-induced Breakdown spectroscopy quantitative analysis method via adaptive analytical line selection and relevance vector machine regression model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Jianhong; Yi, Cancan; Xu, Jinwu; Ma, Xianghong

2015-01-01

A new LIBS quantitative analysis method based on analytical line adaptive selection and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) regression model is proposed. First, a scheme of adaptively selecting analytical line is put forward in order to overcome the drawback of high dependency on a priori knowledge. The candidate analytical lines are automatically selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines, such as spectral intensity, wavelength and width at half height. The analytical lines which will be used as input variables of regression model are determined adaptively according to the samples for both training and testing. Second, an LIBS quantitative analysis method based on RVM is presented. The intensities of analytical lines and the elemental concentrations of certified standard samples are used to train the RVM regression model. The predicted elemental concentration analysis results will be given with a form of confidence interval of probabilistic distribution, which is helpful for evaluating the uncertainness contained in the measured spectra. Chromium concentration analysis experiments of 23 certified standard high-alloy steel samples have been carried out. The multiple correlation coefficient of the prediction was up to 98.85%, and the average relative error of the prediction was 4.01%. The experiment results showed that the proposed LIBS quantitative analysis method achieved better prediction accuracy and better modeling robustness compared with the methods based on partial least squares regression, artificial neural network and standard support vector machine. - Highlights: • Both training and testing samples are considered for analytical lines selection. • The analytical lines are auto-selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines. • The new method can achieve better prediction accuracy and modeling robustness. • Model predictions are given with confidence interval of probabilistic distribution

Selection bias in population-based cancer case-control studies due to incomplete sampling frame coverage.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Matthew C; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Nieto, F Javier; Newcomb, Polly A; Palta, Mari

2012-06-01

Increasing numbers of individuals are choosing to opt out of population-based sampling frames due to privacy concerns. This is especially a problem in the selection of controls for case-control studies, as the cases often arise from relatively complete population-based registries, whereas control selection requires a sampling frame. If opt out is also related to risk factors, bias can arise. We linked breast cancer cases who reported having a valid driver's license from the 2004-2008 Wisconsin women's health study (N = 2,988) with a master list of licensed drivers from the Wisconsin Department of Transportation (WDOT). This master list excludes Wisconsin drivers that requested their information not be sold by the state. Multivariate-adjusted selection probability ratios (SPR) were calculated to estimate potential bias when using this driver's license sampling frame to select controls. A total of 962 cases (32%) had opted out of the WDOT sampling frame. Cases age <40 (SPR = 0.90), income either unreported (SPR = 0.89) or greater than $50,000 (SPR = 0.94), lower parity (SPR = 0.96 per one-child decrease), and hormone use (SPR = 0.93) were significantly less likely to be covered by the WDOT sampling frame (α = 0.05 level). Our results indicate the potential for selection bias due to differential opt out between various demographic and behavioral subgroups of controls. As selection bias may differ by exposure and study base, the assessment of potential bias needs to be ongoing. SPRs can be used to predict the direction of bias when cases and controls stem from different sampling frames in population-based case-control studies.

The NuSTAR  Extragalactic Surveys: X-Ray Spectroscopic Analysis of the Bright Hard-band Selected Sample

Science.gov (United States)

Zappacosta, L.; Comastri, A.; Civano, F.; Puccetti, S.; Fiore, F.; Aird, J.; Del Moro, A.; Lansbury, G. B.; Lanzuisi, G.; Goulding, A.; Mullaney, J. R.; Stern, D.; Ajello, M.; Alexander, D. M.; Ballantyne, D. R.; Bauer, F. E.; Brandt, W. N.; Chen, C.-T. J.; Farrah, D.; Harrison, F. A.; Gandhi, P.; Lanz, L.; Masini, A.; Marchesi, S.; Ricci, C.; Treister, E.

2018-02-01

We discuss the spectral analysis of a sample of 63 active galactic nuclei (AGN) detected above a limiting flux of S(8{--}24 {keV})=7× {10}-14 {erg} {{{s}}}-1 {{cm}}-2 in the multi-tiered NuSTAR extragalactic survey program. The sources span a redshift range z=0{--}2.1 (median =0.58). The spectral analysis is performed over the broad 0.5–24 keV energy range, combining NuSTAR with Chandra and/or XMM-Newton data and employing empirical and physically motivated models. This constitutes the largest sample of AGN selected at > 10 {keV} to be homogeneously spectrally analyzed at these flux levels. We study the distribution of spectral parameters such as photon index, column density ({N}{{H}}), reflection parameter ({\\boldsymbol{R}}), and 10–40 keV luminosity ({L}{{X}}). Heavily obscured ({log}[{N}{{H}}/{{cm}}-2]≥slant 23) and Compton-thick (CT; {log}[{N}{{H}}/{{cm}}-2]≥slant 24) AGN constitute ∼25% (15–17 sources) and ∼2–3% (1–2 sources) of the sample, respectively. The observed {N}{{H}} distribution agrees fairly well with predictions of cosmic X-ray background population-synthesis models (CXBPSM). We estimate the intrinsic fraction of AGN as a function of {N}{{H}}, accounting for the bias against obscured AGN in a flux-selected sample. The fraction of CT AGN relative to {log}[{N}{{H}}/{{cm}}-2]=20{--}24 AGN is poorly constrained, formally in the range 2–56% (90% upper limit of 66%). We derived a fraction (f abs) of obscured AGN ({log}[{N}{{H}}/{{cm}}-2]=22{--}24) as a function of {L}{{X}} in agreement with CXBPSM and previous zvalues.

An evolutionary algorithm for model selection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bicker, Karl [CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Chung, Suh-Urk; Friedrich, Jan; Grube, Boris; Haas, Florian; Ketzer, Bernhard; Neubert, Sebastian; Paul, Stephan; Ryabchikov, Dimitry [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany)

2013-07-01

When performing partial-wave analyses of multi-body final states, the choice of the fit model, i.e. the set of waves to be used in the fit, can significantly alter the results of the partial wave fit. Traditionally, the models were chosen based on physical arguments and by observing the changes in log-likelihood of the fits. To reduce possible bias in the model selection process, an evolutionary algorithm was developed based on a Bayesian goodness-of-fit criterion which takes into account the model complexity. Starting from systematically constructed pools of waves which contain significantly more waves than the typical fit model, the algorithm yields a model with an optimal log-likelihood and with a number of partial waves which is appropriate for the number of events in the data. Partial waves with small contributions to the total intensity are penalized and likely to be dropped during the selection process, as are models were excessive correlations between single waves occur. Due to the automated nature of the model selection, a much larger part of the model space can be explored than would be possible in a manual selection. In addition the method allows to assess the dependence of the fit result on the fit model which is an important contribution to the systematic uncertainty.

Adult health study reference papers. Selection of the sample. Characteristics of the sample

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beebe, G W; Fujisawa, Hideo; Yamasaki, Mitsuru

1960-12-14

The characteristics and selection of the clinical sample have been described in some detail to provide information on the comparability of the exposure groups with respect to factors excluded from the matching criteria and to provide basic descriptive information potentially relevant to individual studies that may be done within the framework of the Adult Health Study. The characteristics under review here are age, sex, many different aspects of residence, marital status, occupation and industry, details of location and shielding ATB, acute radiation signs and symptoms, and prior ABCC medical or pathology examinations. 5 references, 57 tables.

SAMPLING IN EXTERNAL AUDIT - THE MONETARY UNIT SAMPLING METHOD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Dascalu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available This article approaches the general issue of diminishing the evidence investigation space in audit activities, by means of sampling techniques, given that in the instance of a significant data volume an exhaustive examination of the assessed popula¬tion is not possible and/or effective. The general perspective of the presentation involves dealing with sampling risk, in essence, the risk that a selected sample may not be representative for the overall population, in correlation with the audit risk model and with the component parts of this model (inherent risk, control risk and non detection risk and highlights the inter-conditionings between these two models.

ACTIVE LEARNING TO OVERCOME SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS: APPLICATION TO PHOTOMETRIC VARIABLE STAR CLASSIFICATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nathaniel R.; Berian James, J. [Astronomy Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States); Brink, Henrik [Dark Cosmology Centre, Juliane Maries Vej 30, 2100 Copenhagen O (Denmark); Long, James P.; Rice, John, E-mail: jwrichar@stat.berkeley.edu [Statistics Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-7450 (United States)

2012-01-10

Despite the great promise of machine-learning algorithms to classify and predict astrophysical parameters for the vast numbers of astrophysical sources and transients observed in large-scale surveys, the peculiarities of the training data often manifest as strongly biased predictions on the data of interest. Typically, training sets are derived from historical surveys of brighter, more nearby objects than those from more extensive, deeper surveys (testing data). This sample selection bias can cause catastrophic errors in predictions on the testing data because (1) standard assumptions for machine-learned model selection procedures break down and (2) dense regions of testing space might be completely devoid of training data. We explore possible remedies to sample selection bias, including importance weighting, co-training, and active learning (AL). We argue that AL-where the data whose inclusion in the training set would most improve predictions on the testing set are queried for manual follow-up-is an effective approach and is appropriate for many astronomical applications. For a variable star classification problem on a well-studied set of stars from Hipparcos and Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, AL is the optimal method in terms of error rate on the testing data, beating the off-the-shelf classifier by 3.4% and the other proposed methods by at least 3.0%. To aid with manual labeling of variable stars, we developed a Web interface which allows for easy light curve visualization and querying of external databases. Finally, we apply AL to classify variable stars in the All Sky Automated Survey, finding dramatic improvement in our agreement with the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, from 65.5% to 79.5%, and a significant increase in the classifier's average confidence for the testing set, from 14.6% to 42.9%, after a few AL iterations.

ACTIVE LEARNING TO OVERCOME SAMPLE SELECTION BIAS: APPLICATION TO PHOTOMETRIC VARIABLE STAR CLASSIFICATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nathaniel R.; Berian James, J.; Brink, Henrik; Long, James P.; Rice, John

2012-01-01

Despite the great promise of machine-learning algorithms to classify and predict astrophysical parameters for the vast numbers of astrophysical sources and transients observed in large-scale surveys, the peculiarities of the training data often manifest as strongly biased predictions on the data of interest. Typically, training sets are derived from historical surveys of brighter, more nearby objects than those from more extensive, deeper surveys (testing data). This sample selection bias can cause catastrophic errors in predictions on the testing data because (1) standard assumptions for machine-learned model selection procedures break down and (2) dense regions of testing space might be completely devoid of training data. We explore possible remedies to sample selection bias, including importance weighting, co-training, and active learning (AL). We argue that AL—where the data whose inclusion in the training set would most improve predictions on the testing set are queried for manual follow-up—is an effective approach and is appropriate for many astronomical applications. For a variable star classification problem on a well-studied set of stars from Hipparcos and Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, AL is the optimal method in terms of error rate on the testing data, beating the off-the-shelf classifier by 3.4% and the other proposed methods by at least 3.0%. To aid with manual labeling of variable stars, we developed a Web interface which allows for easy light curve visualization and querying of external databases. Finally, we apply AL to classify variable stars in the All Sky Automated Survey, finding dramatic improvement in our agreement with the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, from 65.5% to 79.5%, and a significant increase in the classifier's average confidence for the testing set, from 14.6% to 42.9%, after a few AL iterations.

Active Learning to Overcome Sample Selection Bias: Application to Photometric Variable Star Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Joseph W.; Starr, Dan L.; Brink, Henrik; Miller, Adam A.; Bloom, Joshua S.; Butler, Nathaniel R.; James, J. Berian; Long, James P.; Rice, John

2012-01-01

Despite the great promise of machine-learning algorithms to classify and predict astrophysical parameters for the vast numbers of astrophysical sources and transients observed in large-scale surveys, the peculiarities of the training data often manifest as strongly biased predictions on the data of interest. Typically, training sets are derived from historical surveys of brighter, more nearby objects than those from more extensive, deeper surveys (testing data). This sample selection bias can cause catastrophic errors in predictions on the testing data because (1) standard assumptions for machine-learned model selection procedures break down and (2) dense regions of testing space might be completely devoid of training data. We explore possible remedies to sample selection bias, including importance weighting, co-training, and active learning (AL). We argue that AL—where the data whose inclusion in the training set would most improve predictions on the testing set are queried for manual follow-up—is an effective approach and is appropriate for many astronomical applications. For a variable star classification problem on a well-studied set of stars from Hipparcos and Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment, AL is the optimal method in terms of error rate on the testing data, beating the off-the-shelf classifier by 3.4% and the other proposed methods by at least 3.0%. To aid with manual labeling of variable stars, we developed a Web interface which allows for easy light curve visualization and querying of external databases. Finally, we apply AL to classify variable stars in the All Sky Automated Survey, finding dramatic improvement in our agreement with the ASAS Catalog of Variable Stars, from 65.5% to 79.5%, and a significant increase in the classifier's average confidence for the testing set, from 14.6% to 42.9%, after a few AL iterations.

Use of Maximum Likelihood-Mixed Models to select stable reference genes: a case of heat stress response in sheep

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salces Judit

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Reference genes with stable expression are required to normalize expression differences of target genes in qPCR experiments. Several procedures and companion software have been proposed to find the most stable genes. Model based procedures are attractive because they provide a solid statistical framework. NormFinder, a widely used software, uses a model based method. The pairwise comparison procedure implemented in GeNorm is a simpler procedure but one of the most extensively used. In the present work a statistical approach based in Maximum Likelihood estimation under mixed models was tested and compared with NormFinder and geNorm softwares. Sixteen candidate genes were tested in whole blood samples from control and heat stressed sheep. Results A model including gene and treatment as fixed effects, sample (animal, gene by treatment, gene by sample and treatment by sample interactions as random effects with heteroskedastic residual variance in gene by treatment levels was selected using goodness of fit and predictive ability criteria among a variety of models. Mean Square Error obtained under the selected model was used as indicator of gene expression stability. Genes top and bottom ranked by the three approaches were similar; however, notable differences for the best pair of genes selected for each method and the remaining genes of the rankings were shown. Differences among the expression values of normalized targets for each statistical approach were also found. Conclusions Optimal statistical properties of Maximum Likelihood estimation joined to mixed model flexibility allow for more accurate estimation of expression stability of genes under many different situations. Accurate selection of reference genes has a direct impact over the normalized expression values of a given target gene. This may be critical when the aim of the study is to compare expression rate differences among samples under different environmental

Model Selection with the Linear Mixed Model for Longitudinal Data

Science.gov (United States)

Ryoo, Ji Hoon

2011-01-01

Model building or model selection with linear mixed models (LMMs) is complicated by the presence of both fixed effects and random effects. The fixed effects structure and random effects structure are codependent, so selection of one influences the other. Most presentations of LMM in psychology and education are based on a multilevel or…

IT vendor selection model by using structural equation model & analytical hierarchy process

Science.gov (United States)

Maitra, Sarit; Dominic, P. D. D.

2012-11-01

Selecting and evaluating the right vendors is imperative for an organization's global marketplace competitiveness. Improper selection and evaluation of potential vendors can dwarf an organization's supply chain performance. Numerous studies have demonstrated that firms consider multiple criteria when selecting key vendors. This research intends to develop a new hybrid model for vendor selection process with better decision making. The new proposed model provides a suitable tool for assisting decision makers and managers to make the right decisions and select the most suitable vendor. This paper proposes a Hybrid model based on Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for long-term strategic vendor selection problems. The five steps framework of the model has been designed after the thorough literature study. The proposed hybrid model will be applied using a real life case study to assess its effectiveness. In addition, What-if analysis technique will be used for model validation purpose.

Dealing with selection bias in educational transition models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier

2011-01-01

This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational tr...... account for selection on unobserved variables and high-quality data are both required in order to estimate credible educational transition models.......This paper proposes the bivariate probit selection model (BPSM) as an alternative to the traditional Mare model for analyzing educational transitions. The BPSM accounts for selection on unobserved variables by allowing for unobserved variables which affect the probability of making educational...... transitions to be correlated across transitions. We use simulated and real data to illustrate how the BPSM improves on the traditional Mare model in terms of correcting for selection bias and providing credible estimates of the effect of family background on educational success. We conclude that models which...

The ATLAS3D project - I. A volume-limited sample of 260 nearby early-type galaxies: science goals and selection criteria

Science.gov (United States)

Cappellari, Michele; Emsellem, Eric; Krajnović, Davor; McDermid, Richard M.; Scott, Nicholas; Verdoes Kleijn, G. A.; Young, Lisa M.; Alatalo, Katherine; Bacon, R.; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, M.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Khochfar, Sadegh; Kuntschner, Harald; Lablanche, Pierre-Yves; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie

2011-05-01

The ATLAS3D project is a multiwavelength survey combined with a theoretical modelling effort. The observations span from the radio to the millimetre and optical, and provide multicolour imaging, two-dimensional kinematics of the atomic (H I), molecular (CO) and ionized gas (Hβ, [O III] and [N I]), together with the kinematics and population of the stars (Hβ, Fe5015 and Mg b), for a carefully selected, volume-limited (1.16 × 105 Mpc3) sample of 260 early-type (elliptical E and lenticular S0) galaxies (ETGs). The models include semi-analytic, N-body binary mergers and cosmological simulations of galaxy formation. Here we present the science goals for the project and introduce the galaxy sample and the selection criteria. The sample consists of nearby (D 15°) morphologically selected ETGs extracted from a parent sample of 871 galaxies (8 per cent E, 22 per cent S0 and 70 per cent spirals) brighter than MK statistically representative of the nearby galaxy population. We present the size-luminosity relation for the spirals and ETGs and show that the ETGs in the ATLAS3D sample define a tight red sequence in a colour-magnitude diagram, with few objects in the transition from the blue cloud. We describe the strategy of the SAURON integral field observations and the extraction of the stellar kinematics with the pPXF method. We find typical 1σ errors of ΔV≈ 6 km s-1, Δσ≈ 7 km s-1, Δh3≈Δh4≈ 0.03 in the mean velocity, the velocity dispersion and Gauss-Hermite (GH) moments for galaxies with effective dispersion σe≳ 120 km s-1. For galaxies with lower σe (≈40 per cent of the sample) the GH moments are gradually penalized by pPXF towards zero to suppress the noise produced by the spectral undersampling and only V and σ can be measured. We give an overview of the characteristics of the other main data sets already available for our sample and of the ongoing modelling projects.

Sorption models and their application in environmental samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamel, Nariman H.M.

2008-01-01

Full text: Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) were found in some environmental soils not high enough to pose problems for human health. The health may be affected by increasing of NORM at some environmental soils. Four soil samples obtained from certain coastal regions in Egypt. Naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) of the uranium ( 238 U) series, thorium ( 232 Th) series and the radioactive isotope of potassium ( 40 K) were measured. The soil samples were selected from the situations where the radionuclide concentrations are significantly higher than the average level of other sites. It were chemically analyzed for the uranium, silicon aluminum and iron. The cation exchange capacity (CEC) were determined, it was found lower in the presence of Fe-silicates suggested that Fe-hydroxide had precipitin at the exchangeable edge sites of the clay minerals. The pH of the solid particles at which the net total surface charge is zero was known as the point of zero charge (PZC). The PZC is very important in determining the affinity of the soil samples for different cations and anions. The aim of this work is to determine the natural radiological hazardous of radionuclide at four environmental coastal soil samples in Egypt. The point of zero surface charge was determined using titration tests. Sorption model was developed for this purpose. (author)

Model catalysis by size-selected cluster deposition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Scott [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

2015-11-20

This report summarizes the accomplishments during the last four years of the subject grant. Results are presented for experiments in which size-selected model catalysts were studied under surface science and aqueous electrochemical conditions. Strong effects of cluster size were found, and by correlating the size effects with size-dependent physical properties of the samples measured by surface science methods, it was possible to deduce mechanistic insights, such as the factors that control the rate-limiting step in the reactions. Results are presented for CO oxidation, CO binding energetics and geometries, and electronic effects under surface science conditions, and for the electrochemical oxygen reduction reaction, ethanol oxidation reaction, and for oxidation of carbon by water.

Estimation of a multivariate mean under model selection uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georges Nguefack-Tsague

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Model selection uncertainty would occur if we selected a model based on one data set and subsequently applied it for statistical inferences, because the "correct" model would not be selected with certainty.  When the selection and inference are based on the same dataset, some additional problems arise due to the correlation of the two stages (selection and inference. In this paper model selection uncertainty is considered and model averaging is proposed. The proposal is related to the theory of James and Stein of estimating more than three parameters from independent normal observations. We suggest that a model averaging scheme taking into account the selection procedure could be more appropriate than model selection alone. Some properties of this model averaging estimator are investigated; in particular we show using Stein's results that it is a minimax estimator and can outperform Stein-type estimators.

Gender Wage Gap : A Semi-Parametric Approach With Sample Selection Correction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Picchio, M.; Mussida, C.

2010-01-01

Sizeable gender differences in employment rates are observed in many countries. Sample selection into the workforce might therefore be a relevant issue when estimating gender wage gaps. This paper proposes a new semi-parametric estimator of densities in the presence of covariates which incorporates

Statistical sampling plans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaech, J.L.

1984-01-01

In auditing and in inspection, one selects a number of items by some set of procedures and performs measurements which are compared with the operator's values. This session considers the problem of how to select the samples to be measured, and what kinds of measurements to make. In the inspection situation, the ultimate aim is to independently verify the operator's material balance. The effectiveness of the sample plan in achieving this objective is briefly considered. The discussion focuses on the model plant

Evaluation of Stress Loaded Steel Samples Using Selected Electromagnetic Methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chady, T.

2004-01-01

In this paper the magnetic leakage flux and eddy current method were used to evaluate changes of materials' properties caused by stress. Seven samples made of ferromagnetic material with different level of applied stress were prepared. First, the leakage magnetic fields were measured by scanning the surface of the specimens with GMR gradiometer. Next, the same samples were evaluated using an eddy current sensor. A comparison between results obtained from both methods was carried out. Finally, selected parameters of the measured signal were calculated and utilized to evaluate level of the applied stress. A strong coincidence between amount of the applied stress and the maximum amplitude of the derivative was confirmed

Review and selection of unsaturated flow models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reeves, M.; Baker, N.A.; Duguid, J.O. [INTERA, Inc., Las Vegas, NV (United States)

1994-04-04

Since the 1960`s, ground-water flow models have been used for analysis of water resources problems. In the 1970`s, emphasis began to shift to analysis of waste management problems. This shift in emphasis was largely brought about by site selection activities for geologic repositories for disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. Model development during the 1970`s and well into the 1980`s focused primarily on saturated ground-water flow because geologic repositories in salt, basalt, granite, shale, and tuff were envisioned to be below the water table. Selection of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for potential disposal of waste began to shift model development toward unsaturated flow models. Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M&O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. This document describes the CRWMS M&O approach to model review and evaluation (Chapter 2), and the requirements for unsaturated flow models which are the bases for selection from among the current models (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 identifies existing models, and their characteristics. Through a detailed examination of characteristics, Chapter 5 presents the selection of models for testing. Chapter 6 discusses the testing and verification of selected models. Chapters 7 and 8 give conclusions and make recommendations, respectively. Chapter 9 records the major references for each of the models reviewed. Appendix A, a collection of technical reviews for each model, contains a more complete list of references. Finally, Appendix B characterizes the problems used for model testing.

Review and selection of unsaturated flow models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reeves, M.; Baker, N.A.; Duguid, J.O.

1994-01-01

Since the 1960's, ground-water flow models have been used for analysis of water resources problems. In the 1970's, emphasis began to shift to analysis of waste management problems. This shift in emphasis was largely brought about by site selection activities for geologic repositories for disposal of high-level radioactive wastes. Model development during the 1970's and well into the 1980's focused primarily on saturated ground-water flow because geologic repositories in salt, basalt, granite, shale, and tuff were envisioned to be below the water table. Selection of the unsaturated zone at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, for potential disposal of waste began to shift model development toward unsaturated flow models. Under the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System Management and Operating Contractor (CRWMS M ampersand O) has the responsibility to review, evaluate, and document existing computer models; to conduct performance assessments; and to develop performance assessment models, where necessary. This document describes the CRWMS M ampersand O approach to model review and evaluation (Chapter 2), and the requirements for unsaturated flow models which are the bases for selection from among the current models (Chapter 3). Chapter 4 identifies existing models, and their characteristics. Through a detailed examination of characteristics, Chapter 5 presents the selection of models for testing. Chapter 6 discusses the testing and verification of selected models. Chapters 7 and 8 give conclusions and make recommendations, respectively. Chapter 9 records the major references for each of the models reviewed. Appendix A, a collection of technical reviews for each model, contains a more complete list of references. Finally, Appendix B characterizes the problems used for model testing

Statistical surrogate model based sampling criterion for stochastic global optimization of problems with constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cho, Su Gil; Jang, Jun Yong; Kim, Ji Hoon; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Min Uk [Romax Technology Ltd., Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Jong Su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-04-15

Sequential surrogate model-based global optimization algorithms, such as super-EGO, have been developed to increase the efficiency of commonly used global optimization technique as well as to ensure the accuracy of optimization. However, earlier studies have drawbacks because there are three phases in the optimization loop and empirical parameters. We propose a united sampling criterion to simplify the algorithm and to achieve the global optimum of problems with constraints without any empirical parameters. It is able to select the points located in a feasible region with high model uncertainty as well as the points along the boundary of constraint at the lowest objective value. The mean squared error determines which criterion is more dominant among the infill sampling criterion and boundary sampling criterion. Also, the method guarantees the accuracy of the surrogate model because the sample points are not located within extremely small regions like super-EGO. The performance of the proposed method, such as the solvability of a problem, convergence properties, and efficiency, are validated through nonlinear numerical examples with disconnected feasible regions.

Efficient Bayesian inference of subsurface flow models using nested sampling and sparse polynomial chaos surrogates

KAUST Repository

Elsheikh, Ahmed H.

2014-02-01

An efficient Bayesian calibration method based on the nested sampling (NS) algorithm and non-intrusive polynomial chaos method is presented. Nested sampling is a Bayesian sampling algorithm that builds a discrete representation of the posterior distributions by iteratively re-focusing a set of samples to high likelihood regions. NS allows representing the posterior probability density function (PDF) with a smaller number of samples and reduces the curse of dimensionality effects. The main difficulty of the NS algorithm is in the constrained sampling step which is commonly performed using a random walk Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. In this work, we perform a two-stage sampling using a polynomial chaos response surface to filter out rejected samples in the Markov Chain Monte-Carlo method. The combined use of nested sampling and the two-stage MCMC based on approximate response surfaces provides significant computational gains in terms of the number of simulation runs. The proposed algorithm is applied for calibration and model selection of subsurface flow models. © 2013.

Selection of Sampling Pumps Used for Groundwater Monitoring at the Hanford Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schalla, Ronald; Webber, William D.; Smith, Ronald M.

2001-11-05

The variable frequency drive centrifugal submersible pump, Redi-Flo2a made by Grundfosa, was selected for universal application for Hanford Site groundwater monitoring. Specifications for the selected pump and five other pumps were evaluated against current and future Hanford groundwater monitoring performance requirements, and the Redi-Flo2 was selected as the most versatile and applicable for the range of monitoring conditions. The Redi-Flo2 pump distinguished itself from the other pumps considered because of its wide range in output flow rate and its comparatively moderate maintenance and low capital costs. The Redi-Flo2 pump is able to purge a well at a high flow rate and then supply water for sampling at a low flow rate. Groundwater sampling using a low-volume-purging technique (e.g., low flow, minimal purge, no purge, or micropurgea) is planned in the future, eliminating the need for the pump to supply a high-output flow rate. Under those conditions, the Well Wizard bladder pump, manufactured by QED Environmental Systems, Inc., may be the preferred pump because of the lower capital cost.

Passive sampling of selected endocrine disrupting compounds using polar organic chemical integrative samplers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arditsoglou, Anastasia; Voutsa, Dimitra

2008-01-01

Two types of polar organic chemical integrative samplers (pharmaceutical POCIS and pesticide POCIS) were examined for their sampling efficiency of selected endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs). Laboratory-based calibration of POCISs was conducted by exposing them at high and low concentrations of 14 EDCs (4-alkyl-phenols, their ethoxylate oligomers, bisphenol A, selected estrogens and synthetic steroids) for different time periods. The kinetic studies showed an integrative uptake up to 28 days. The sampling rates for the individual compounds were obtained. The use of POCISs could result in an integrative approach to the quality status of the aquatic systems especially in the case of high variation of water concentrations of EDCs. The sampling efficiency of POCISs under various field conditions was assessed after their deployment in different aquatic environments. - Calibration and field performance of polar organic integrative samplers for monitoring EDCs in aquatic environments

Generalized Selectivity Description for Polymeric Ion-Selective Electrodes Based on the Phase Boundary Potential Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bakker, Eric

2010-02-15

A generalized description of the response behavior of potentiometric polymer membrane ion-selective electrodes is presented on the basis of ion-exchange equilibrium considerations at the sample-membrane interface. This paper includes and extends on previously reported theoretical advances in a more compact yet more comprehensive form. Specifically, the phase boundary potential model is used to derive the origin of the Nernstian response behavior in a single expression, which is valid for a membrane containing any charge type and complex stoichiometry of ionophore and ion-exchanger. This forms the basis for a generalized expression of the selectivity coefficient, which may be used for the selectivity optimization of ion-selective membranes containing electrically charged and neutral ionophores of any desired stoichiometry. It is shown to reduce to expressions published previously for specialized cases, and may be effectively applied to problems relevant in modern potentiometry. The treatment is extended to mixed ion solutions, offering a comprehensive yet formally compact derivation of the response behavior of ion-selective electrodes to a mixture of ions of any desired charge. It is compared to predictions by the less accurate Nicolsky-Eisenman equation. The influence of ion fluxes or any form of electrochemical excitation is not considered here, but may be readily incorporated if an ion-exchange equilibrium at the interface may be assumed in these cases.

Size selective isocyanate aerosols personal air sampling using porous plastic foams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cong Khanh Huynh; Trinh Vu Duc

2009-01-01

As part of a European project (SMT4-CT96-2137), various European institutions specialized in occupational hygiene (BGIA, HSL, IOM, INRS, IST, Ambiente e Lavoro) have established a program of scientific collaboration to develop one or more prototypes of European personal samplers for the collection of simultaneous three dust fractions: inhalable, thoracic and respirable. These samplers based on existing sampling heads (IOM, GSP and cassettes) use Polyurethane Plastic Foam (PUF) according to their porosity to support sampling and separator size of the particles. In this study, the authors present an original application of size selective personal air sampling using chemical impregnated PUF to perform isocyanate aerosols capturing and derivatizing in industrial spray-painting shops.

Halo models of HI selected galaxies

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Niladri; Choudhury, Tirthankar Roy; Paranjape, Aseem

2018-06-01

Modelling the distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) in dark matter halos is important for studying galaxy evolution in the cosmological context. We use a novel approach to infer the HI-dark matter connection at the massive end (m_H{I} > 10^{9.8} M_{⊙}) from radio HI emission surveys, using optical properties of low-redshift galaxies as an intermediary. In particular, we use a previously calibrated optical HOD describing the luminosity- and colour-dependent clustering of SDSS galaxies and describe the HI content using a statistical scaling relation between the optical properties and HI mass. This allows us to compute the abundance and clustering properties of HI-selected galaxies and compare with data from the ALFALFA survey. We apply an MCMC-based statistical analysis to constrain the free parameters related to the scaling relation. The resulting best-fit scaling relation identifies massive HI galaxies primarily with optically faint blue centrals, consistent with expectations from galaxy formation models. We compare the Hi-stellar mass relation predicted by our model with independent observations from matched Hi-optical galaxy samples, finding reasonable agreement. As a further application, we make some preliminary forecasts for future observations of HI and optical galaxies in the expected overlap volume of SKA and Euclid/LSST.

Selective solid-phase extraction of Ni(II) by an ion-imprinted polymer from water samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saraji, Mohammad; Yousefi, Hamideh

2009-01-01

A new ion-imprinted polymer (IIP) material was synthesized by copolymerization of 4-vinylpyridine as monomer, ethyleneglycoldimethacrylate as crosslinking agent and 2,2'-azobis-sobutyronitrile as initiator in the presence of Ni-dithizone complex. The IIP was used as sorbent in a solid-phase extraction column. The effects of sampling volume, elution conditions, sample pH and sample flow rate on the extraction of Ni ions form water samples were studied. The maximum adsorption capacity and the relative selectivity coefficients of imprinted polymer for Ni(II)/Co(II), Ni(II)/Cu(II) and Ni(II)/Cd(II) were calculated. Compared with non-imprinted polymer particles, the IIP had higher selectivity for Ni(II). The relative selectivity factor (α r ) values of Ni(II)/Co(II), Ni(II)/Cu(II) and Ni(II)/Cd(II) were 21.6, 54.3, and 22.7, respectively, which are greater than 1. The relative standard deviation of the five replicate determinations of Ni(II) was 3.4%. The detection limit for 150 mL of sample was 1.6 μg L -1 using flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The developed method was successfully applied to the determination of trace nickel in water samples with satisfactory results.

40 CFR 761.306 - Sampling 1 meter square surfaces by random selection of halves.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sampling 1 meter square surfaces by...(b)(3) § 761.306 Sampling 1 meter square surfaces by random selection of halves. (a) Divide each 1 meter square portion where it is necessary to collect a surface wipe test sample into two equal (or as...

Quality Quandaries- Time Series Model Selection and Parsimony

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bisgaard, Søren; Kulahci, Murat

2009-01-01

Some of the issues involved in selecting adequate models for time series data are discussed using an example concerning the number of users of an Internet server. The process of selecting an appropriate model is subjective and requires experience and judgment. The authors believe an important...... consideration in model selection should be parameter parsimony. They favor the use of parsimonious mixed ARMA models, noting that research has shown that a model building strategy that considers only autoregressive representations will lead to non-parsimonious models and to loss of forecasting accuracy....

Application of Bayesian Model Selection for Metal Yield Models using ALEGRA and Dakota.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Portone, Teresa; Niederhaus, John Henry; Sanchez, Jason James; Swiler, Laura Painton

2018-02-01

This report introduces the concepts of Bayesian model selection, which provides a systematic means of calibrating and selecting an optimal model to represent a phenomenon. This has many potential applications, including for comparing constitutive models. The ideas described herein are applied to a model selection problem between different yield models for hardened steel under extreme loading conditions.

Sampling Strategies and Processing of Biobank Tissue Samples from Porcine Biomedical Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Blutke, Andreas; Wanke, Rüdiger

2018-03-06

In translational medical research, porcine models have steadily become more popular. Considering the high value of individual animals, particularly of genetically modified pig models, and the often-limited number of available animals of these models, establishment of (biobank) collections of adequately processed tissue samples suited for a broad spectrum of subsequent analyses methods, including analyses not specified at the time point of sampling, represent meaningful approaches to take full advantage of the translational value of the model. With respect to the peculiarities of porcine anatomy, comprehensive guidelines have recently been established for standardized generation of representative, high-quality samples from different porcine organs and tissues. These guidelines are essential prerequisites for the reproducibility of results and their comparability between different studies and investigators. The recording of basic data, such as organ weights and volumes, the determination of the sampling locations and of the numbers of tissue samples to be generated, as well as their orientation, size, processing and trimming directions, are relevant factors determining the generalizability and usability of the specimen for molecular, qualitative, and quantitative morphological analyses. Here, an illustrative, practical, step-by-step demonstration of the most important techniques for generation of representative, multi-purpose biobank specimen from porcine tissues is presented. The methods described here include determination of organ/tissue volumes and densities, the application of a volume-weighted systematic random sampling procedure for parenchymal organs by point-counting, determination of the extent of tissue shrinkage related to histological embedding of samples, and generation of randomly oriented samples for quantitative stereological analyses, such as isotropic uniform random (IUR) sections generated by the "Orientator" and "Isector" methods, and vertical

Methods for model selection in applied science and engineering.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Field, Richard V., Jr.

2004-10-01

Mathematical models are developed and used to study the properties of complex systems and/or modify these systems to satisfy some performance requirements in just about every area of applied science and engineering. A particular reason for developing a model, e.g., performance assessment or design, is referred to as the model use. Our objective is the development of a methodology for selecting a model that is sufficiently accurate for an intended use. Information on the system being modeled is, in general, incomplete, so that there may be two or more models consistent with the available information. The collection of these models is called the class of candidate models. Methods are developed for selecting the optimal member from a class of candidate models for the system. The optimal model depends on the available information, the selected class of candidate models, and the model use. Classical methods for model selection, including the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, as well as a method employing a decision-theoretic approach, are formulated to select the optimal model for numerous applications. There is no requirement that the candidate models be random. Classical methods for model selection ignore model use and require data to be available. Examples are used to show that these methods can be unreliable when data is limited. The decision-theoretic approach to model selection does not have these limitations, and model use is included through an appropriate utility function. This is especially important when modeling high risk systems, where the consequences of using an inappropriate model for the system can be disastrous. The decision-theoretic method for model selection is developed and applied for a series of complex and diverse applications. These include the selection of the: (1) optimal order of the polynomial chaos approximation for non-Gaussian random variables and stationary stochastic processes, (2) optimal pressure load model to be

Selective parathyroid venous sampling in primary hyperparathyroidism: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ibraheem, Kareem; Toraih, Eman A; Haddad, Antoine B; Farag, Mahmoud; Randolph, Gregory W; Kandil, Emad

2018-05-14

Minimally invasive parathyroidectomy requires accurate preoperative localization techniques. There is considerable controversy about the effectiveness of selective parathyroid venous sampling (sPVS) in primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) patients. The aim of this meta-analysis is to examine the diagnostic accuracy of sPVS as a preoperative localization modality in PHPT. Studies evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of sPVS for PHPT were electronically searched in the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Controlled Trials Register databases. Two independent authors reviewed the studies, and revised quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy study tool was used for the quality assessment. Study heterogeneity and pooled estimates were calculated. Two hundred and two unique studies were identified. Of those, 12 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio (PLR) of sPVS were 74%, 41%, and 1.55, respectively. The area-under-the-receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.684, indicating an average discriminatory ability of sPVS. On comparison between sPVS and noninvasive imaging modalities, sensitivity, PLR, and positive posttest probability were significantly higher in sPVS compared to noninvasive imaging modalities. Interestingly, super-selective venous sampling had the highest sensitivity, accuracy, and positive posttest probability compared to other parathyroid venous sampling techniques. This is the first meta-analysis to examine the accuracy of sPVS in PHPT. sPVS had higher pooled sensitivity when compared to noninvasive modalities in revision parathyroid surgery. However, the invasiveness of this technique does not favor its routine use for preoperative localization. Super-selective venous sampling was the most accurate among all other parathyroid venous sampling techniques. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Application of Bayesian methods to habitat selection modeling of the northern spotted owl in California: new statistical methods for wildlife research

Science.gov (United States)

Howard B. Stauffer; Cynthia J. Zabel; Jeffrey R. Dunk

2005-01-01

We compared a set of competing logistic regression habitat selection models for Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) in California. The habitat selection models were estimated, compared, evaluated, and tested using multiple sample datasets collected on federal forestlands in northern California. We used Bayesian methods in interpreting...

Pareto genealogies arising from a Poisson branching evolution model with selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Huillet, Thierry E

2014-02-01

We study a class of coalescents derived from a sampling procedure out of N i.i.d. Pareto(α) random variables, normalized by their sum, including β-size-biasing on total length effects (β Poisson-Dirichlet (α, -β) Ξ-coalescent (α ε[0, 1)), or to a family of continuous-time Beta (2 - α, α - β)Λ-coalescents (α ε[1, 2)), or to the Kingman coalescent (α ≥ 2). We indicate that this class of coalescent processes (and their scaling limits) may be viewed as the genealogical processes of some forward in time evolving branching population models including selection effects. In such constant-size population models, the reproduction step, which is based on a fitness-dependent Poisson Point Process with scaling power-law(α) intensity, is coupled to a selection step consisting of sorting out the N fittest individuals issued from the reproduction step.

Transfer function design based on user selected samples for intuitive multivariate volume exploration

KAUST Repository

Zhou, Liang

2013-02-01

Multivariate volumetric datasets are important to both science and medicine. We propose a transfer function (TF) design approach based on user selected samples in the spatial domain to make multivariate volumetric data visualization more accessible for domain users. Specifically, the user starts the visualization by probing features of interest on slices and the data values are instantly queried by user selection. The queried sample values are then used to automatically and robustly generate high dimensional transfer functions (HDTFs) via kernel density estimation (KDE). Alternatively, 2D Gaussian TFs can be automatically generated in the dimensionality reduced space using these samples. With the extracted features rendered in the volume rendering view, the user can further refine these features using segmentation brushes. Interactivity is achieved in our system and different views are tightly linked. Use cases show that our system has been successfully applied for simulation and complicated seismic data sets. © 2013 IEEE.

Transfer function design based on user selected samples for intuitive multivariate volume exploration

KAUST Repository

Zhou, Liang; Hansen, Charles

2013-01-01

Multivariate volumetric datasets are important to both science and medicine. We propose a transfer function (TF) design approach based on user selected samples in the spatial domain to make multivariate volumetric data visualization more accessible for domain users. Specifically, the user starts the visualization by probing features of interest on slices and the data values are instantly queried by user selection. The queried sample values are then used to automatically and robustly generate high dimensional transfer functions (HDTFs) via kernel density estimation (KDE). Alternatively, 2D Gaussian TFs can be automatically generated in the dimensionality reduced space using these samples. With the extracted features rendered in the volume rendering view, the user can further refine these features using segmentation brushes. Interactivity is achieved in our system and different views are tightly linked. Use cases show that our system has been successfully applied for simulation and complicated seismic data sets. © 2013 IEEE.

Soft X-Ray Observations of a Complete Sample of X-Ray--selected BL Lacertae Objects

Science.gov (United States)

Perlman, Eric S.; Stocke, John T.; Wang, Q. Daniel; Morris, Simon L.

1996-01-01

-ray and radio-selected BL Lac objects remains a difficulty for models which unify these two types of objects. We have identified one addition to the sample, so that the sample now has 23 objects. We find no evidence for a substantial number of unidentified low-luminosity BL Lac objects hidden in our sample, as had been suggested by Browne & Marcha (1993) although a few such objects may be present.

Mutation-selection models of codon substitution and their use to estimate selective strengths on codon usage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yang, Ziheng; Nielsen, Rasmus

2008-01-01

Current models of codon substitution are formulated at the levels of nucleotide substitution and do not explicitly consider the separate effects of mutation and selection. They are thus incapable of inferring whether mutation or selection is responsible for evolution at silent sites. Here we impl...... codon usage in mammals. Estimates of selection coefficients nevertheless suggest that selection on codon usage is weak and most mutations are nearly neutral. The sensitivity of the analysis on the assumed mutation model is discussed.......Current models of codon substitution are formulated at the levels of nucleotide substitution and do not explicitly consider the separate effects of mutation and selection. They are thus incapable of inferring whether mutation or selection is responsible for evolution at silent sites. Here we...... implement a few population genetics models of codon substitution that explicitly consider mutation bias and natural selection at the DNA level. Selection on codon usage is modeled by introducing codon-fitness parameters, which together with mutation-bias parameters, predict optimal codon frequencies...

The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models.

Science.gov (United States)

Syfert, Mindy M; Smith, Matthew J; Coomes, David A

2013-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) trained on presence-only data are frequently used in ecological research and conservation planning. However, users of SDM software are faced with a variety of options, and it is not always obvious how selecting one option over another will affect model performance. Working with MaxEnt software and with tree fern presence data from New Zealand, we assessed whether (a) choosing to correct for geographical sampling bias and (b) using complex environmental response curves have strong effects on goodness of fit. SDMs were trained on tree fern data, obtained from an online biodiversity data portal, with two sources that differed in size and geographical sampling bias: a small, widely-distributed set of herbarium specimens and a large, spatially clustered set of ecological survey records. We attempted to correct for geographical sampling bias by incorporating sampling bias grids in the SDMs, created from all georeferenced vascular plants in the datasets, and explored model complexity issues by fitting a wide variety of environmental response curves (known as "feature types" in MaxEnt). In each case, goodness of fit was assessed by comparing predicted range maps with tree fern presences and absences using an independent national dataset to validate the SDMs. We found that correcting for geographical sampling bias led to major improvements in goodness of fit, but did not entirely resolve the problem: predictions made with clustered ecological data were inferior to those made with the herbarium dataset, even after sampling bias correction. We also found that the choice of feature type had negligible effects on predictive performance, indicating that simple feature types may be sufficient once sampling bias is accounted for. Our study emphasizes the importance of reducing geographical sampling bias, where possible, in datasets used to train SDMs, and the effectiveness and essentialness of sampling bias correction within MaxEnt.

Selective removal of phosphate for analysis of organic acids in complex samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Deshmukh, Sandeep; Frolov, Andrej; Marcillo, Andrea; Birkemeyer, Claudia

2015-04-03

Accurate quantitation of compounds in samples of biological origin is often hampered by matrix interferences one of which occurs in GC-MS analysis from the presence of highly abundant phosphate. Consequently, high concentrations of phosphate need to be removed before sample analysis. Within this context, we screened 17 anion exchange solid-phase extraction (SPE) materials for selective phosphate removal using different protocols to meet the challenge of simultaneous recovery of six common organic acids in aqueous samples prior to derivatization for GC-MS analysis. Up to 75% recovery was achieved for the most organic acids, only the low pKa tartaric and citric acids were badly recovered. Compared to the traditional approach of phosphate removal by precipitation, SPE had a broader compatibility with common detection methods and performed more selectively among the organic acids under investigation. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that phosphate removal strategies during the analysis of biologically relevant small molecular weight organic acids consider the respective pKa of the anticipated analytes and the detection method of choice. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

THE zCOSMOS-SINFONI PROJECT. I. SAMPLE SELECTION AND NATURAL-SEEING OBSERVATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mancini, C.; Renzini, A. [INAF-OAPD, Osservatorio Astronomico di Padova, Vicolo Osservatorio 5, I-35122 Padova (Italy); Foerster Schreiber, N. M.; Hicks, E. K. S.; Genzel, R.; Tacconi, L.; Davies, R. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Extraterrestrische Physik, Giessenbachstrasse, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Cresci, G. [Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri (OAF), INAF-Firenze, Largo E. Fermi 5, I-50125 Firenze (Italy); Peng, Y.; Lilly, S.; Carollo, M.; Oesch, P. [Institute of Astronomy, Department of Physics, Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule, ETH Zurich CH-8093 (Switzerland); Vergani, D.; Pozzetti, L.; Zamorani, G. [INAF-Bologna, Via Ranzani, I-40127 Bologna (Italy); Daddi, E. [CEA-Saclay, DSM/DAPNIA/Service d' Astrophysique, F-91191 Gif-Sur Yvette Cedex (France); Maraston, C. [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Burnaby Road, PO1 3HE Portsmouth (United Kingdom); McCracken, H. J. [IAP, 98bis bd Arago, F-75014 Paris (France); Bouche, N. [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Shapiro, K. [Aerospace Research Laboratories, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, CA 90278 (United States); and others

2011-12-10

The zCOSMOS-SINFONI project is aimed at studying the physical and kinematical properties of a sample of massive z {approx} 1.4-2.5 star-forming galaxies, through SINFONI near-infrared integral field spectroscopy (IFS), combined with the multiwavelength information from the zCOSMOS (COSMOS) survey. The project is based on one hour of natural-seeing observations per target, and adaptive optics (AO) follow-up for a major part of the sample, which includes 30 galaxies selected from the zCOSMOS/VIMOS spectroscopic survey. This first paper presents the sample selection, and the global physical characterization of the target galaxies from multicolor photometry, i.e., star formation rate (SFR), stellar mass, age, etc. The H{alpha} integrated properties, such as, flux, velocity dispersion, and size, are derived from the natural-seeing observations, while the follow-up AO observations will be presented in the next paper of this series. Our sample appears to be well representative of star-forming galaxies at z {approx} 2, covering a wide range in mass and SFR. The H{alpha} integrated properties of the 25 H{alpha} detected galaxies are similar to those of other IFS samples at the same redshifts. Good agreement is found among the SFRs derived from H{alpha} luminosity and other diagnostic methods, provided the extinction affecting the H{alpha} luminosity is about twice that affecting the continuum. A preliminary kinematic analysis, based on the maximum observed velocity difference across the source and on the integrated velocity dispersion, indicates that the sample splits nearly 50-50 into rotation-dominated and velocity-dispersion-dominated galaxies, in good agreement with previous surveys.

A Computational Model of Selection by Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, J. J.

2004-01-01

Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of…

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart G of... - Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Marine Engines

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Enforcement Auditing of Marine Engines A Appendix A to Subpart G of Part 91 Protection of Environment...-IGNITION ENGINES Selective Enforcement Auditing Regulations Pt. 91, Subpt. G, App. A Appendix A to Subpart G of Part 91—Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Marine Engines Table 1—Sampling...

A computational model of selection by consequences.

OpenAIRE

McDowell, J J

2004-01-01

Darwinian selection by consequences was instantiated in a computational model that consisted of a repertoire of behaviors undergoing selection, reproduction, and mutation over many generations. The model in effect created a digital organism that emitted behavior continuously. The behavior of this digital organism was studied in three series of computational experiments that arranged reinforcement according to random-interval (RI) schedules. The quantitative features of the model were varied o...

Random sampling or geostatistical modelling? Choosing between design-based and model-based sampling strategies for soil (with discussion)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brus, D.J.; Gruijter, de J.J.

1997-01-01

Classical sampling theory has been repeatedly identified with classical statistics which assumes that data are identically and independently distributed. This explains the switch of many soil scientists from design-based sampling strategies, based on classical sampling theory, to the model-based

The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models

OpenAIRE

Ghysels, Eric; Santa-Clara, Pedro; Valkanov, Rossen

2004-01-01

We introduce Mixed Data Sampling (henceforth MIDAS) regression models. The regressions involve time series data sampled at different frequencies. Technically speaking MIDAS models specify conditional expectations as a distributed lag of regressors recorded at some higher sampling frequencies. We examine the asymptotic properties of MIDAS regression estimation and compare it with traditional distributed lag models. MIDAS regressions have wide applicability in macroeconomics and �nance.

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart F of... - Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Nonroad Engines

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Enforcement Auditing of Nonroad Engines A Appendix A to Subpart F of Part 89 Protection of Environment... NONROAD COMPRESSION-IGNITION ENGINES Selective Enforcement Auditing Pt. 89, Subpt. F, App. A Appendix A to Subpart F of Part 89—Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Nonroad Engines Table 1—Sampling...

Electromembrane extraction as a rapid and selective miniaturized sample preparation technique for biological fluids

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gjelstad, Astrid; Pedersen-Bjergaard, Stig; Seip, Knut Fredrik

2015-01-01

This special report discusses the sample preparation method electromembrane extraction, which was introduced in 2006 as a rapid and selective miniaturized extraction method. The extraction principle is based on isolation of charged analytes extracted from an aqueous sample, across a thin film....... Technical aspects of electromembrane extraction, important extraction parameters as well as a handful of examples of applications from different biological samples and bioanalytical areas are discussed in the paper....

A genetic algorithm-based framework for wavelength selection on sample categorization.

Science.gov (United States)

Anzanello, Michel J; Yamashita, Gabrielli; Marcelo, Marcelo; Fogliatto, Flávio S; Ortiz, Rafael S; Mariotti, Kristiane; Ferrão, Marco F

2017-08-01

In forensic and pharmaceutical scenarios, the application of chemometrics and optimization techniques has unveiled common and peculiar features of seized medicine and drug samples, helping investigative forces to track illegal operations. This paper proposes a novel framework aimed at identifying relevant subsets of attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared (ATR-FTIR) wavelengths for classifying samples into two classes, for example authentic or forged categories in case of medicines, or salt or base form in cocaine analysis. In the first step of the framework, the ATR-FTIR spectra were partitioned into equidistant intervals and the k-nearest neighbour (KNN) classification technique was applied to each interval to insert samples into proper classes. In the next step, selected intervals were refined through the genetic algorithm (GA) by identifying a limited number of wavelengths from the intervals previously selected aimed at maximizing classification accuracy. When applied to Cialis®, Viagra®, and cocaine ATR-FTIR datasets, the proposed method substantially decreased the number of wavelengths needed to categorize, and increased the classification accuracy. From a practical perspective, the proposed method provides investigative forces with valuable information towards monitoring illegal production of drugs and medicines. In addition, focusing on a reduced subset of wavelengths allows the development of portable devices capable of testing the authenticity of samples during police checking events, avoiding the need for later laboratorial analyses and reducing equipment expenses. Theoretically, the proposed GA-based approach yields more refined solutions than the current methods relying on interval approaches, which tend to insert irrelevant wavelengths in the retained intervals. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Filtered selection coupled with support vector machines generate a functionally relevant prediction model for colorectal cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabere MN

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Musa Nur Gabere,1 Mohamed Aly Hussein,1 Mohammad Azhar Aziz2 1Department of Bioinformatics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center/King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; 2Colorectal Cancer Research Program, Department of Medical Genomics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia Purpose: There has been considerable interest in using whole-genome expression profiles for the classification of colorectal cancer (CRC. The selection of important features is a crucial step before training a classifier.Methods: In this study, we built a model that uses support vector machine (SVM to classify cancer and normal samples using Affymetrix exon microarray data obtained from 90 samples of 48 patients diagnosed with CRC. From the 22,011 genes, we selected the 20, 30, 50, 100, 200, 300, and 500 genes most relevant to CRC using the minimum-redundancy–maximum-relevance (mRMR technique. With these gene sets, an SVM model was designed using four different kernel types (linear, polynomial, radial basis function [RBF], and sigmoid.Results: The best model, which used 30 genes and RBF kernel, outperformed other combinations; it had an accuracy of 84% for both ten fold and leave-one-out cross validations in discriminating the cancer samples from the normal samples. With this 30 genes set from mRMR, six classifiers were trained using random forest (RF, Bayes net (BN, multilayer perceptron (MLP, naïve Bayes (NB, reduced error pruning tree (REPT, and SVM. Two hybrids, mRMR + SVM and mRMR + BN, were the best models when tested on other datasets, and they achieved a prediction accuracy of 95.27% and 91.99%, respectively, compared to other mRMR hybrid models (mRMR + RF, mRMR + NB, mRMR + REPT, and mRMR + MLP. Ingenuity pathway analysis was used to analyze the functions of the 30 genes selected for this model and their potential association with CRC: CDH3, CEACAM7, CLDN1, IL8, IL6R, MMP1

A Dual-Stage Two-Phase Model of Selective Attention

Science.gov (United States)

Hubner, Ronald; Steinhauser, Marco; Lehle, Carola

2010-01-01

The dual-stage two-phase (DSTP) model is introduced as a formal and general model of selective attention that includes both an early and a late stage of stimulus selection. Whereas at the early stage information is selected by perceptual filters whose selectivity is relatively limited, at the late stage stimuli are selected more efficiently on a…

Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Laura A.; Benscoter, Allison; Harvey, Rebecca G.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2017-01-01

Climate envelope models are widely used to describe potential future distribution of species under different climate change scenarios. It is broadly recognized that there are both strengths and limitations to using climate envelope models and that outcomes are sensitive to initial assumptions, inputs, and modeling methods Selection of predictor variables, a central step in modeling, is one of the areas where different techniques can yield varying results. Selection of climate variables to use as predictors is often done using statistical approaches that develop correlations between occurrences and climate data. These approaches have received criticism in that they rely on the statistical properties of the data rather than directly incorporating biological information about species responses to temperature and precipitation. We evaluated and compared models and prediction maps for 15 threatened or endangered species in Florida based on two variable selection techniques: expert opinion and a statistical method. We compared model performance between these two approaches for contemporary predictions, and the spatial correlation, spatial overlap and area predicted for contemporary and future climate predictions. In general, experts identified more variables as being important than the statistical method and there was low overlap in the variable sets (0.9 for area under the curve (AUC) and >0.7 for true skill statistic (TSS). Spatial overlap, which compares the spatial configuration between maps constructed using the different variable selection techniques, was only moderate overall (about 60%), with a great deal of variability across species. Difference in spatial overlap was even greater under future climate projections, indicating additional divergence of model outputs from different variable selection techniques. Our work is in agreement with other studies which have found that for broad-scale species distribution modeling, using statistical methods of variable

Elementary Teachers' Selection and Use of Visual Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Tammy D.; Gail Jones, M.

2018-02-01

As science grows in complexity, science teachers face an increasing challenge of helping students interpret models that represent complex science systems. Little is known about how teachers select and use models when planning lessons. This mixed methods study investigated the pedagogical approaches and visual models used by elementary in-service and preservice teachers in the development of a science lesson about a complex system (e.g., water cycle). Sixty-seven elementary in-service and 69 elementary preservice teachers completed a card sort task designed to document the types of visual models (e.g., images) that teachers choose when planning science instruction. Quantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted to analyze the card sort task. Semistructured interviews were conducted with a subsample of teachers to elicit the rationale for image selection. Results from this study showed that both experienced in-service teachers and novice preservice teachers tended to select similar models and use similar rationales for images to be used in lessons. Teachers tended to select models that were aesthetically pleasing and simple in design and illustrated specific elements of the water cycle. The results also showed that teachers were not likely to select images that represented the less obvious dimensions of the water cycle. Furthermore, teachers selected visual models more as a pedagogical tool to illustrate specific elements of the water cycle and less often as a tool to promote student learning related to complex systems.

Genetic search feature selection for affective modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martínez, Héctor P.; Yannakakis, Georgios N.

2010-01-01

Automatic feature selection is a critical step towards the generation of successful computational models of affect. This paper presents a genetic search-based feature selection method which is developed as a global-search algorithm for improving the accuracy of the affective models built....... The method is tested and compared against sequential forward feature selection and random search in a dataset derived from a game survey experiment which contains bimodal input features (physiological and gameplay) and expressed pairwise preferences of affect. Results suggest that the proposed method...

Modeling HIV-1 drug resistance as episodic directional selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Murrell, Ben; de Oliveira, Tulio; Seebregts, Chris; Kosakovsky Pond, Sergei L; Scheffler, Konrad

2012-01-01

The evolution of substitutions conferring drug resistance to HIV-1 is both episodic, occurring when patients are on antiretroviral therapy, and strongly directional, with site-specific resistant residues increasing in frequency over time. While methods exist to detect episodic diversifying selection and continuous directional selection, no evolutionary model combining these two properties has been proposed. We present two models of episodic directional selection (MEDS and EDEPS) which allow the a priori specification of lineages expected to have undergone directional selection. The models infer the sites and target residues that were likely subject to directional selection, using either codon or protein sequences. Compared to its null model of episodic diversifying selection, MEDS provides a superior fit to most sites known to be involved in drug resistance, and neither one test for episodic diversifying selection nor another for constant directional selection are able to detect as many true positives as MEDS and EDEPS while maintaining acceptable levels of false positives. This suggests that episodic directional selection is a better description of the process driving the evolution of drug resistance.

Modeling HIV-1 drug resistance as episodic directional selection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ben Murrell

Full Text Available The evolution of substitutions conferring drug resistance to HIV-1 is both episodic, occurring when patients are on antiretroviral therapy, and strongly directional, with site-specific resistant residues increasing in frequency over time. While methods exist to detect episodic diversifying selection and continuous directional selection, no evolutionary model combining these two properties has been proposed. We present two models of episodic directional selection (MEDS and EDEPS which allow the a priori specification of lineages expected to have undergone directional selection. The models infer the sites and target residues that were likely subject to directional selection, using either codon or protein sequences. Compared to its null model of episodic diversifying selection, MEDS provides a superior fit to most sites known to be involved in drug resistance, and neither one test for episodic diversifying selection nor another for constant directional selection are able to detect as many true positives as MEDS and EDEPS while maintaining acceptable levels of false positives. This suggests that episodic directional selection is a better description of the process driving the evolution of drug resistance.

Decomposing the Gender Wage Gap in the Netherlands with Sample Selection Adjustments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albrecht, James; Vuuren, van Aico; Vroman, Susan

2004-01-01

In this paper, we use quantile regression decomposition methods to analyzethe gender gap between men and women who work full time in the Nether-lands. Because the fraction of women working full time in the Netherlands isquite low, sample selection is a serious issue. In addition to shedding light

The Effect of Sample Size and Data Numbering on Precision of Calibration Model to predict Soil Properties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H Mohamadi Monavar

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Introduction Precision agriculture (PA is a technology that measures and manages within-field variability, such as physical and chemical properties of soil. The nondestructive and rapid VIS-NIR technology detected a significant correlation between reflectance spectra and the physical and chemical properties of soil. On the other hand, quantitatively predict of soil factors such as nitrogen, carbon, cation exchange capacity and the amount of clay in precision farming is very important. The emphasis of this paper is comparing different techniques of choosing calibration samples such as randomly selected method, chemical data and also based on PCA. Since increasing the number of samples is usually time-consuming and costly, then in this study, the best sampling way -in available methods- was predicted for calibration models. In addition, the effect of sample size on the accuracy of the calibration and validation models was analyzed. Materials and Methods Two hundred and ten soil samples were collected from cultivated farm located in Avarzaman in Hamedan province, Iran. The crop rotation was mostly potato and wheat. Samples were collected from a depth of 20 cm above ground and passed through a 2 mm sieve and air dried at room temperature. Chemical analysis was performed in the soil science laboratory, faculty of agriculture engineering, Bu-ali Sina University, Hamadan, Iran. Two Spectrometer (AvaSpec-ULS 2048- UV-VIS and (FT-NIR100N were used to measure the spectral bands which cover the UV-Vis and NIR region (220-2200 nm. Each soil sample was uniformly tiled in a petri dish and was scanned 20 times. Then the pre-processing methods of multivariate scatter correction (MSC and base line correction (BC were applied on the raw signals using Unscrambler software. The samples were divided into two groups: one group for calibration 105 and the second group was used for validation. Each time, 15 samples were selected randomly and tested the accuracy of

A Dynamic Model for Limb Selection

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cox, R.F.A; Smitsman, A.W.

2008-01-01

Two experiments and a model on limb selection are reported. In Experiment 1 left-handed and right-handed participants (N = 36) repeatedly used one hand for grasping a small cube. After a clear switch in the cube’s location, perseverative limb selection was revealed in both handedness groups. In

A Permutation Approach for Selecting the Penalty Parameter in Penalized Model Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Sabourin, Jeremy A; Valdar, William; Nobel, Andrew B

2015-01-01

Summary We describe a simple, computationally effcient, permutation-based procedure for selecting the penalty parameter in LASSO penalized regression. The procedure, permutation selection, is intended for applications where variable selection is the primary focus, and can be applied in a variety of structural settings, including that of generalized linear models. We briefly discuss connections between permutation selection and existing theory for the LASSO. In addition, we present a simulation study and an analysis of real biomedical data sets in which permutation selection is compared with selection based on the following: cross-validation (CV), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Scaled Sparse Linear Regression, and a selection method based on recently developed testing procedures for the LASSO. PMID:26243050

Application of the Sampling Selection Technique in Approaching Financial Audit

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victor Munteanu

2018-03-01

Full Text Available In his professional approach, the financial auditor has a wide range of working techniques, including selection techniques. They are applied depending on the nature of the information available to the financial auditor, the manner in which they are presented - paper or electronic format, and, last but not least, the time available. Several techniques are applied, successively or in parallel, to increase the safety of the expressed opinion and to provide the audit report with a solid basis of information. Sampling is used in the phase of control or clarification of the identified error. The main purpose is to corroborate or measure the degree of risk detected following a pertinent analysis. Since the auditor does not have time or means to thoroughly rebuild the information, the sampling technique can provide an effective response to the need for valorization.

Correlations fo Sc, rare earths and other elements in selected rock samples from Arrua-i

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Facetti, J F; Prats, M [Asuncion Nacional Univ. (Paraguay). Inst. de Ciencias

1972-01-01

The Sc and Eu contents in selected rocks samples from the stock of Arrua-i have been determined and correlations established with other elements and with the relative amount of some rare earths. These correlations suggest metasomatic phenomena for the formation of the rock samples.

Correlations fo Sc, rare earths and other elements in selected rock samples from Arrua-i

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Facetti, J.F.; Prats, M.

1972-01-01

The Sc and Eu contents in selected rocks samples from the stock of Arrua-i have been determined and correlations established with other elements and with the relative amount of some rare earths. These correlations suggest metasomatic phenomena for the formation of the rock samples

Modelling and characterization of photothermal effects assisted with gold nanorods in ex vivo samples and in a murine model

Science.gov (United States)

Lamela Rivera, Horacio; Rodríguez Jara, Félix; Cunningham, Vincent

2011-03-01

We discuss in this article the implementation of a laser-tissue interaction and bioheat-transfer 2-D finite-element model for Photothermal Therapy assisted with Gold Nanorods. We have selected Gold Nanorods as absorbing nanostructures in order to improve the efficiency of using compact diode lasers because of their high opto-thermal conversion efficiency at 808 and 850 nm. The goal is to model the distribution of the optical energy among the tissue including the skin absorption effects and the tissue thermal response, with and without the presence of Gold Nanorods. The heat generation due to the optical energy absorption and the thermal propagation will be computationally modeled and optimized. The model has been evaluated and compared with experimental ex-vivo data in fresh chicken muscle samples and in-vivo BALB/c mice animal model.

ITOUGH2 sample problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finsterle, S.

1997-11-01

This report contains a collection of ITOUGH2 sample problems. It complements the ITOUGH2 User's Guide [Finsterle, 1997a], and the ITOUGH2 Command Reference [Finsterle, 1997b]. ITOUGH2 is a program for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty propagation analysis. It is based on the TOUGH2 simulator for non-isothermal multiphase flow in fractured and porous media [Preuss, 1987, 1991a]. The report ITOUGH2 User's Guide [Finsterle, 1997a] describes the inverse modeling framework and provides the theoretical background. The report ITOUGH2 Command Reference [Finsterle, 1997b] contains the syntax of all ITOUGH2 commands. This report describes a variety of sample problems solved by ITOUGH2. Table 1.1 contains a short description of the seven sample problems discussed in this report. The TOUGH2 equation-of-state (EOS) module that needs to be linked to ITOUGH2 is also indicated. Each sample problem focuses on a few selected issues shown in Table 1.2. ITOUGH2 input features and the usage of program options are described. Furthermore, interpretations of selected inverse modeling results are given. Problem 1 is a multipart tutorial, describing basic ITOUGH2 input files for the main ITOUGH2 application modes; no interpretation of results is given. Problem 2 focuses on non-uniqueness, residual analysis, and correlation structure. Problem 3 illustrates a variety of parameter and observation types, and describes parameter selection strategies. Problem 4 compares the performance of minimization algorithms and discusses model identification. Problem 5 explains how to set up a combined inversion of steady-state and transient data. Problem 6 provides a detailed residual and error analysis. Finally, Problem 7 illustrates how the estimation of model-related parameters may help compensate for errors in that model

A free-knot spline modeling framework for piecewise linear logistic regression in complex samples with body mass index and mortality as an example

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott W. Keith

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper details the design, evaluation, and implementation of a framework for detecting and modeling nonlinearity between a binary outcome and a continuous predictor variable adjusted for covariates in complex samples. The framework provides familiar-looking parameterizations of output in terms of linear slope coefficients and odds ratios. Estimation methods focus on maximum likelihood optimization of piecewise linear free-knot splines formulated as B-splines. Correctly specifying the optimal number and positions of the knots improves the model, but is marked by computational intensity and numerical instability. Our inference methods utilize both parametric and nonparametric bootstrapping. Unlike other nonlinear modeling packages, this framework is designed to incorporate multistage survey sample designs common to nationally representative datasets. We illustrate the approach and evaluate its performance in specifying the correct number of knots under various conditions with an example using body mass index (BMI; kg/m2 and the complex multi-stage sampling design from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to simulate binary mortality outcomes data having realistic nonlinear sample-weighted risk associations with BMI. BMI and mortality data provide a particularly apt example and area of application since BMI is commonly recorded in large health surveys with complex designs, often categorized for modeling, and nonlinearly related to mortality. When complex sample design considerations were ignored, our method was generally similar to or more accurate than two common model selection procedures, Schwarz’s Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC, in terms of correctly selecting the correct number of knots. Our approach provided accurate knot selections when complex sampling weights were incorporated, while AIC and BIC were not effective under these conditions.

Model Informed Pediatric Development Applied to Bilastine: Ontogenic PK Model Development, Dose Selection for First Time in Children and PK Study Design.

Science.gov (United States)

Vozmediano, Valvanera; Sologuren, Ander; Lukas, John C; Leal, Nerea; Rodriguez, Mónica

2017-12-01

Bilastine is an H 1 antagonist whose pharmacokinetics (PK) and pharmacodynamics (PD) have been resolved in adults with a therapeutic oral dose of 20 mg/day. Bilastine has favorable characteristics for use in pediatrics but the PK/PD and the optimal dose in children had yet to be clinically explored. The purpose is to: (1) Develop an ontogenic predictive model of bilastine PK linked to the PD in adults by integrating current knowledge; (2) Use the model to design a PK study in children; (3) Confirm the selected dose and the study design through the evaluation of model predictability in the first recruited children; (4) Consider for inclusion the group of younger children (design an adaptive PK trial in children that was then confirmed using data from the first recruits by comparing observations with model predictions. PK/PD simulations supported the selection of 10 mg/day in 2 to design hence trial continuation. The model successfully predicted bilastine PK in pediatrics and optimally assisted the selection of the dose and sampling scheme for the trial in children. The selected dose was considered suitable for younger children and the forthcoming safety study in children aged 2 to <12 years.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

Science.gov (United States)

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Model Selection in Data Analysis Competitions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wind, David Kofoed; Winther, Ole

2014-01-01

The use of data analysis competitions for selecting the most appropriate model for a problem is a recent innovation in the field of predictive machine learning. Two of the most well-known examples of this trend was the Netflix Competition and recently the competitions hosted on the online platform...... performers from Kaggle and use previous personal experiences from competing in Kaggle competitions. The stated hypotheses about feature engineering, ensembling, overfitting, model complexity and evaluation metrics give indications and guidelines on how to select a proper model for performing well...... Kaggle. In this paper, we will state and try to verify a set of qualitative hypotheses about predictive modelling, both in general and in the scope of data analysis competitions. To verify our hypotheses we will look at previous competitions and their outcomes, use qualitative interviews with top...

Adverse selection model regarding tobacco consumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumitru MARIN

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of introducing a tax on tobacco consumption can be studied trough an adverse selection model. The objective of the model presented in the following is to characterize the optimal contractual relationship between the governmental authorities and the two type employees: smokers and non-smokers, taking into account that the consumers’ decision to smoke or not represents an element of risk and uncertainty. Two scenarios are run using the General Algebraic Modeling Systems software: one without taxes set on tobacco consumption and another one with taxes set on tobacco consumption, based on an adverse selection model described previously. The results of the two scenarios are compared in the end of the paper: the wage earnings levels and the social welfare in case of a smoking agent and in case of a non-smoking agent.

Effects of state and trait anxiety on selective attention to threatening stimuli in a non-clinical sample of school children

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeniffer Ortega Marín

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Attentional biases, consisting of a preferential processing of threatening stimuli, have been found in anxious adults as predicted by several cognitive models. However, studies with non-clinical samples of children have provided mixed results. therefore, the aim of this research was to determine the effects of state and trait anxiety on the selective attention towards threatening stimuli in a non-clinical sample of school children (age: 8 to 13, n = 110 using the dot-probe task. This study did not reveal an effect of trait anxiety on selective attention towards threatening stimuli. However, a significant difference was found between participants with low state anxiety and high state anxiety. Nevertheless, the effect size was small. Specifically, participants with low state anxiety showed a bias towards threatening stimuli. Overall, the findings of this research with a non-clinical sample of school children suggest that attentional biases towards threatening information, which has been repeatedly found in anxious adults, are not necessarily inherent to non-clinical anxiety in children and on the other hand, the relationship between attentional biases and anxiety in this population might be moderated by other cognitive processes.

SNP calling using genotype model selection on high-throughput sequencing data

KAUST Repository

You, Na

2012-01-16

Motivation: A review of the available single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) calling procedures for Illumina high-throughput sequencing (HTS) platform data reveals that most rely mainly on base-calling and mapping qualities as sources of error when calling SNPs. Thus, errors not involved in base-calling or alignment, such as those in genomic sample preparation, are not accounted for.Results: A novel method of consensus and SNP calling, Genotype Model Selection (GeMS), is given which accounts for the errors that occur during the preparation of the genomic sample. Simulations and real data analyses indicate that GeMS has the best performance balance of sensitivity and positive predictive value among the tested SNP callers. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Data-driven sampling method for building 3D anatomical models from serial histology

Science.gov (United States)

Salunke, Snehal Ulhas; Ablove, Tova; Danforth, Theresa; Tomaszewski, John; Doyle, Scott

2017-03-01

In this work, we investigate the effect of slice sampling on 3D models of tissue architecture using serial histopathology. We present a method for using a single fully-sectioned tissue block as pilot data, whereby we build a fully-realized 3D model and then determine the optimal set of slices needed to reconstruct the salient features of the model objects under biological investigation. In our work, we are interested in the 3D reconstruction of microvessel architecture in the trigone region between the vagina and the bladder. This region serves as a potential avenue for drug delivery to treat bladder infection. We collect and co-register 23 serial sections of CD31-stained tissue images (6 μm thick sections), from which four microvessels are selected for analysis. To build each model, we perform semi-automatic segmentation of the microvessels. Subsampled meshes are then created by removing slices from the stack, interpolating the missing data, and re-constructing the mesh. We calculate the Hausdorff distance between the full and subsampled meshes to determine the optimal sampling rate for the modeled structures. In our application, we found that a sampling rate of 50% (corresponding to just 12 slices) was sufficient to recreate the structure of the microvessels without significant deviation from the fullyrendered mesh. This pipeline effectively minimizes the number of histopathology slides required for 3D model reconstruction, and can be utilized to either (1) reduce the overall costs of a project, or (2) enable additional analysis on the intermediate slides.

Evaluation of pump pulsation in respirable size-selective sampling: Part III. Investigation of European standard methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Soo, Jhy-Charm; Lee, Eun Gyung; Lee, Larry A; Kashon, Michael L; Harper, Martin

2014-10-01

Lee et al. (Evaluation of pump pulsation in respirable size-selective sampling: part I. Pulsation measurements. Ann Occup Hyg 2014a;58:60-73) introduced an approach to measure pump pulsation (PP) using a real-world sampling train, while the European Standards (EN) (EN 1232-1997 and EN 12919-1999) suggest measuring PP using a resistor in place of the sampler. The goal of this study is to characterize PP according to both EN methods and to determine the relationship of PP between the published method (Lee et al., 2014a) and the EN methods. Additional test parameters were investigated to determine whether the test conditions suggested by the EN methods were appropriate for measuring pulsations. Experiments were conducted using a factorial combination of personal sampling pumps (six medium- and two high-volumetric flow rate pumps), back pressures (six medium- and seven high-flow rate pumps), resistors (two types), tubing lengths between a pump and resistor (60 and 90 cm), and different flow rates (2 and 2.5 l min(-1) for the medium- and 4.4, 10, and 11.2 l min(-1) for the high-flow rate pumps). The selection of sampling pumps and the ranges of back pressure were based on measurements obtained in the previous study (Lee et al., 2014a). Among six medium-flow rate pumps, only the Gilian5000 and the Apex IS conformed to the 10% criterion specified in EN 1232-1997. Although the AirChek XR5000 exceeded the 10% limit, the average PP (10.9%) was close to the criterion. One high-flow rate pump, the Legacy (PP=8.1%), conformed to the 10% criterion in EN 12919-1999, while the Elite12 did not (PP=18.3%). Conducting supplemental tests with additional test parameters beyond those used in the two subject EN standards did not strengthen the characterization of PPs. For the selected test conditions, a linear regression model [PPEN=0.014+0.375×PPNIOSH (adjusted R2=0.871)] was developed to determine the PP relationship between the published method (Lee et al., 2014a) and the EN methods

Sensitivity and uncertainty studies of the CRAC2 code for selected meteorological models and parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, R.C.; Kocher, D.C.; Hicks, B.B.; Hosker, R.P. Jr.; Ku, J.Y.; Rao, K.S.

1985-01-01

We have studied the sensitivity of results from the CRAC2 computer code, which predicts health impacts from a reactor-accident scenario, to uncertainties in selected meteorological models and parameters. The sources of uncertainty examined include the models for plume rise and wet deposition and the meteorological bin-sampling procedure. An alternative plume-rise model usually had little effect on predicted health impacts. In an alternative wet-deposition model, the scavenging rate depends only on storm type, rather than on rainfall rate and atmospheric stability class as in the CRAC2 model. Use of the alternative wet-deposition model in meteorological bin-sampling runs decreased predicted mean early injuries by as much as a factor of 2-3 and, for large release heights and sensible heat rates, decreased mean early fatalities by nearly an order of magnitude. The bin-sampling procedure in CRAC2 was expanded by dividing each rain bin into four bins that depend on rainfall rate. Use of the modified bin structure in conjunction with the CRAC2 wet-deposition model changed all predicted health impacts by less than a factor of 2. 9 references

Contributions to sampling statistics

CERN Document Server

Conti, Pier; Ranalli, Maria

2014-01-01

This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the ITACOSM 2013 Conference, held in Milan in June 2013. ITACOSM is the bi-annual meeting of the Survey Sampling Group S2G of the Italian Statistical Society, intended as an international  forum of scientific discussion on the developments of theory and application of survey sampling methodologies and applications in human and natural sciences. The book gathers research papers carefully selected from both invited and contributed sessions of the conference. The whole book appears to be a relevant contribution to various key aspects of sampling methodology and techniques; it deals with some hot topics in sampling theory, such as calibration, quantile-regression and multiple frame surveys, and with innovative methodologies in important topics of both sampling theory and applications. Contributions cut across current sampling methodologies such as interval estimation for complex samples, randomized responses, bootstrap, weighting, modeling, imputati...

Scalability on LHS (Latin Hypercube Sampling) samples for use in uncertainty analysis of large numerical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baron, Jorge H.; Nunez Mac Leod, J.E.

2000-01-01

The present paper deals with the utilization of advanced sampling statistical methods to perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on numerical models. Such models may represent physical phenomena, logical structures (such as boolean expressions) or other systems, and various of their intrinsic parameters and/or input variables are usually treated as random variables simultaneously. In the present paper a simple method to scale-up Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) samples is presented, starting with a small sample and duplicating its size at each step, making it possible to use the already run numerical model results with the smaller sample. The method does not distort the statistical properties of the random variables and does not add any bias to the samples. The results is a significant reduction in numerical models running time can be achieved (by re-using the previously run samples), keeping all the advantages of LHS, until an acceptable representation level is achieved in the output variables. (author)

Acrylamide exposure among Turkish toddlers from selected cereal-based baby food samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Cengiz, Mehmet Fatih; Gündüz, Cennet Pelin Boyacı

2013-10-01

In this study, acrylamide exposure from selected cereal-based baby food samples was investigated among toddlers aged 1-3 years in Turkey. The study contained three steps. The first step was collecting food consumption data and toddlers' physical properties, such as gender, age and body weight, using a questionnaire given to parents by a trained interviewer between January and March 2012. The second step was determining the acrylamide levels in food samples that were reported on by the parents in the questionnaire, using a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) method. The last step was combining the determined acrylamide levels in selected food samples with individual food consumption and body weight data using a deterministic approach to estimate the acrylamide exposure levels. The mean acrylamide levels of baby biscuits, breads, baby bread-rusks, crackers, biscuits, breakfast cereals and powdered cereal-based baby foods were 153, 225, 121, 604, 495, 290 and 36 μg/kg, respectively. The minimum, mean and maximum acrylamide exposures were estimated to be 0.06, 1.43 and 6.41 μg/kg BW per day, respectively. The foods that contributed to acrylamide exposure were aligned from high to low as bread, crackers, biscuits, baby biscuits, powdered cereal-based baby foods, baby bread-rusks and breakfast cereals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of mis-specification on mean and selection between the Weibull and lognormal models

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Xiang; Nadarajah, Saralees; Guo, Bo

2018-02-01

The lognormal and Weibull models are commonly used to analyse data. Although selection procedures have been extensively studied, it is possible that the lognormal model could be selected when the true model is Weibull or vice versa. As the mean is important in applications, we focus on the effect of mis-specification on mean. The effect on lognormal mean is first considered if the lognormal sample is wrongly fitted by a Weibull model. The maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) and quasi-MLE (QMLE) of lognormal mean are obtained based on lognormal and Weibull models. Then, the impact is evaluated by computing ratio of biases and ratio of mean squared errors (MSEs) between MLE and QMLE. For completeness, the theoretical results are demonstrated by simulation studies. Next, the effect of the reverse mis-specification on Weibull mean is discussed. It is found that the ratio of biases and the ratio of MSEs are independent of the location and scale parameters of the lognormal and Weibull models. The influence could be ignored if some special conditions hold. Finally, a model selection method is proposed by comparing ratios concerning biases and MSEs. We also present a published data to illustrate the study in this paper.

HICOSMO - cosmology with a complete sample of galaxy clusters - I. Data analysis, sample selection and luminosity-mass scaling relation

Science.gov (United States)

Schellenberger, G.; Reiprich, T. H.

2017-08-01

The X-ray regime, where the most massive visible component of galaxy clusters, the intracluster medium, is visible, offers directly measured quantities, like the luminosity, and derived quantities, like the total mass, to characterize these objects. The aim of this project is to analyse a complete sample of galaxy clusters in detail and constrain cosmological parameters, like the matter density, Ωm, or the amplitude of initial density fluctuations, σ8. The purely X-ray flux-limited sample (HIFLUGCS) consists of the 64 X-ray brightest galaxy clusters, which are excellent targets to study the systematic effects, that can bias results. We analysed in total 196 Chandra observations of the 64 HIFLUGCS clusters, with a total exposure time of 7.7 Ms. Here, we present our data analysis procedure (including an automated substructure detection and an energy band optimization for surface brightness profile analysis) that gives individually determined, robust total mass estimates. These masses are tested against dynamical and Planck Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) derived masses of the same clusters, where good overall agreement is found with the dynamical masses. The Planck SZ masses seem to show a mass-dependent bias to our hydrostatic masses; possible biases in this mass-mass comparison are discussed including the Planck selection function. Furthermore, we show the results for the (0.1-2.4) keV luminosity versus mass scaling relation. The overall slope of the sample (1.34) is in agreement with expectations and values from literature. Splitting the sample into galaxy groups and clusters reveals, even after a selection bias correction, that galaxy groups exhibit a significantly steeper slope (1.88) compared to clusters (1.06).

A Uniformly Selected Sample of Low-mass Black Holes in Seyfert 1 Galaxies. II. The SDSS DR7 Sample

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, He-Yang; Yuan, Weimin; Dong, Xiao-Bo; Zhou, Hongyan; Liu, Wen-Juan

2018-04-01

A new sample of 204 low-mass black holes (LMBHs) in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) is presented with black hole masses in the range of (1–20) × 105 M ⊙. The AGNs are selected through a systematic search among galaxies in the Seventh Data Release (DR7) of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), and careful analyses of their optical spectra and precise measurement of spectral parameters. Combining them with our previous sample selected from SDSS DR4 makes it the largest LMBH sample so far, totaling over 500 objects. Some of the statistical properties of the combined LMBH AGN sample are briefly discussed in the context of exploring the low-mass end of the AGN population. Their X-ray luminosities follow the extension of the previously known correlation with the [O III] luminosity. The effective optical-to-X-ray spectral indices α OX, albeit with a large scatter, are broadly consistent with the extension of the relation with the near-UV luminosity L 2500 Å. Interestingly, a correlation of α OX with black hole mass is also found, with α OX being statistically flatter (stronger X-ray relative to optical) for lower black hole masses. Only 26 objects, mostly radio loud, were detected in radio at 20 cm in the FIRST survey, giving a radio-loud fraction of 4%. The host galaxies of LMBHs have stellar masses in the range of 108.8–1012.4 M ⊙ and optical colors typical of Sbc spirals. They are dominated by young stellar populations that seem to have undergone continuous star formation history.

Selection bias in dynamically measured supermassive black hole samples: scaling relations and correlations between residuals in semi-analytic galaxy formation models

Science.gov (United States)

Barausse, Enrico; Shankar, Francesco; Bernardi, Mariangela; Dubois, Yohan; Sheth, Ravi K.

2017-07-01

Recent work has confirmed that the scaling relations between the masses of supermassive black holes and host-galaxy properties such as stellar masses and velocity dispersions may be biased high. Much of this may be caused by the requirement that the black hole sphere of influence must be resolved for the black hole mass to be reliably estimated. We revisit this issue with a comprehensive galaxy evolution semi-analytic model. Once tuned to reproduce the (mean) correlation of black hole mass with velocity dispersion, the model cannot account for the correlation with stellar mass. This is independent of the model's parameters, thus suggesting an internal inconsistency in the data. The predicted distributions, especially at the low-mass end, are also much broader than observed. However, if selection effects are included, the model's predictions tend to align with the observations. We also demonstrate that the correlations between the residuals of the scaling relations are more effective than the relations themselves at constraining models for the feedback of active galactic nuclei (AGNs). In fact, we find that our model, while in apparent broad agreement with the scaling relations when accounting for selection biases, yields very weak correlations between their residuals at fixed stellar mass, in stark contrast with observations. This problem persists when changing the AGN feedback strength, and is also present in the hydrodynamic cosmological simulation Horizon-AGN, which includes state-of-the-art treatments of AGN feedback. This suggests that current AGN feedback models are too weak or simply not capturing the effect of the black hole on the stellar velocity dispersion.

Autonomous site selection and instrument positioning for sample acquisition

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, A.; Barnes, D.; Pugh, S.

The European Space Agency Aurora Exploration Program aims to establish a European long-term programme for the exploration of Space, culminating in a human mission to space in the 2030 timeframe. Two flagship missions, namely Mars Sample Return and ExoMars, have been proposed as recognised steps along the way. The Exomars Rover is the first of these flagship missions and includes a rover carrying the Pasteur Payload, a mobile exobiology instrumentation package, and the Beagle 2 arm. The primary objective is the search for evidence of past or present life on mars, but the payload will also study the evolution of the planet and the atmosphere, look for evidence of seismological activity and survey the environment in preparation for future missions. The operation of rovers in unknown environments is complicated, and requires large resources not only on the planet but also in ground based operations. Currently, this can be very labour intensive, and costly, if large teams of scientists and engineers are required to assess mission progress, plan mission scenarios, and construct a sequence of events or goals for uplink. Furthermore, the constraints in communication imposed by the time delay involved over such large distances, and line-of-sight required, make autonomy paramount to mission success, affording the ability to operate in the event of communications outages and be opportunistic with respect to scientific discovery. As part of this drive to reduce mission costs and increase autonomy the Space Robotics group at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth is researching methods of autonomous site selection and instrument positioning, directly applicable to the ExoMars mission. The site selection technique used builds on the geometric reasoning algorithms used previously for localisation and navigation [Shaw 03]. It is proposed that a digital elevation model (DEM) of the local surface, generated during traverse and without interaction from ground based operators, can be

Obscured AGN at z similar to 1 from the zCOSMOS-Bright Survey : I. Selection and optical properties of a [Ne v]-selected sample

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mignoli, M.; Vignali, C.; Gilli, R.; Comastri, A.; Zamorani, G.; Bolzonella, M.; Bongiorno, A.; Lamareille, F.; Nair, P.; Pozzetti, L.; Lilly, S. J.; Carollo, C. M.; Contini, T.; Kneib, J. -P.; Le Fevre, O.; Mainieri, V.; Renzini, A.; Scodeggio, M.; Bardelli, S.; Caputi, K.; Cucciati, O.; de la Torre, S.; de Ravel, L.; Franzetti, P.; Garilli, B.; Iovino, A.; Kampczyk, P.; Knobel, C.; Kovac, K.; Le Borgne, J. -F.; Le Brun, V.; Maier, C.; Pello, R.; Peng, Y.; Montero, E. Perez; Presotto, V.; Silverman, J. D.; Tanaka, M.; Tasca, L.; Tresse, L.; Vergani, D.; Zucca, E.; Bordoloi, R.; Cappi, A.; Cimatti, A.; Koekemoer, A. M.; McCracken, H. J.; Moresco, M.; Welikala, N.

Aims. The application of multi-wavelength selection techniques is essential for obtaining a complete and unbiased census of active galactic nuclei (AGN). We present here a method for selecting z similar to 1 obscured AGN from optical spectroscopic surveys. Methods. A sample of 94 narrow-line AGN

Tissue Sampling Guides for Porcine Biomedical Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Albl, Barbara; Haesner, Serena; Braun-Reichhart, Christina; Streckel, Elisabeth; Renner, Simone; Seeliger, Frank; Wolf, Eckhard; Wanke, Rüdiger; Blutke, Andreas

2016-04-01

This article provides guidelines for organ and tissue sampling adapted to porcine animal models in translational medical research. Detailed protocols for the determination of sampling locations and numbers as well as recommendations on the orientation, size, and trimming direction of samples from ∼50 different porcine organs and tissues are provided in the Supplementary Material. The proposed sampling protocols include the generation of samples suitable for subsequent qualitative and quantitative analyses, including cryohistology, paraffin, and plastic histology; immunohistochemistry;in situhybridization; electron microscopy; and quantitative stereology as well as molecular analyses of DNA, RNA, proteins, metabolites, and electrolytes. With regard to the planned extent of sampling efforts, time, and personnel expenses, and dependent upon the scheduled analyses, different protocols are provided. These protocols are adjusted for (I) routine screenings, as used in general toxicity studies or in analyses of gene expression patterns or histopathological organ alterations, (II) advanced analyses of single organs/tissues, and (III) large-scale sampling procedures to be applied in biobank projects. Providing a robust reference for studies of porcine models, the described protocols will ensure the efficiency of sampling, the systematic recovery of high-quality samples representing the entire organ or tissue as well as the intra-/interstudy comparability and reproducibility of results. © The Author(s) 2016.

Assessing the joint effect of population stratification and sample selection in studies of gene-gene (environment interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng KF

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is well known that the presence of population stratification (PS may cause the usual test in case-control studies to produce spurious gene-disease associations. However, the impact of the PS and sample selection (SS is less known. In this paper, we provide a systematic study of the joint effect of PS and SS under a more general risk model containing genetic and environmental factors. We provide simulation results to show the magnitude of the bias and its impact on type I error rate of the usual chi-square test under a wide range of PS level and selection bias. Results The biases to the estimation of main and interaction effect are quantified and then their bounds derived. The estimated bounds can be used to compute conservative p-values for the association test. If the conservative p-value is smaller than the significance level, we can safely claim that the association test is significant regardless of the presence of PS or not, or if there is any selection bias. We also identify conditions for the null bias. The bias depends on the allele frequencies, exposure rates, gene-environment odds ratios and disease risks across subpopulations and the sampling of the cases and controls. Conclusion Our results show that the bias cannot be ignored even the case and control data were matched in ethnicity. A real example is given to illustrate application of the conservative p-value. These results are useful to the genetic association studies of main and interaction effects.

On incomplete sampling under birth-death models and connections to the sampling-based coalescent.

Science.gov (United States)

Stadler, Tanja

2009-11-07

The constant rate birth-death process is used as a stochastic model for many biological systems, for example phylogenies or disease transmission. As the biological data are usually not fully available, it is crucial to understand the effect of incomplete sampling. In this paper, we analyze the constant rate birth-death process with incomplete sampling. We derive the density of the bifurcation events for trees on n leaves which evolved under this birth-death-sampling process. This density is used for calculating prior distributions in Bayesian inference programs and for efficiently simulating trees. We show that the birth-death-sampling process can be interpreted as a birth-death process with reduced rates and complete sampling. This shows that joint inference of birth rate, death rate and sampling probability is not possible. The birth-death-sampling process is compared to the sampling-based population genetics model, the coalescent. It is shown that despite many similarities between these two models, the distribution of bifurcation times remains different even in the case of very large population sizes. We illustrate these findings on an Hepatitis C virus dataset from Egypt. We show that the transmission times estimates are significantly different-the widely used Gamma statistic even changes its sign from negative to positive when switching from the coalescent to the birth-death process.

Environmental Modeling, A goal of the Baseline Sampling and Analysis program is to determine baseline levels of select priority pollutants and petroleum markers in areas with high probability for oil spills., Published in 1999, 1:24000 (1in=2000ft) scale, Louisiana State University (LSU).

Data.gov (United States)

NSGIC Education | GIS Inventory — Environmental Modeling dataset current as of 1999. A goal of the Baseline Sampling and Analysis program is to determine baseline levels of select priority pollutants...

Efficient Generation and Selection of Virtual Populations in Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, R J; Rieger, T R; Musante, C J

2016-03-01

Quantitative systems pharmacology models mechanistically describe a biological system and the effect of drug treatment on system behavior. Because these models rarely are identifiable from the available data, the uncertainty in physiological parameters may be sampled to create alternative parameterizations of the model, sometimes termed "virtual patients." In order to reproduce the statistics of a clinical population, virtual patients are often weighted to form a virtual population that reflects the baseline characteristics of the clinical cohort. Here we introduce a novel technique to efficiently generate virtual patients and, from this ensemble, demonstrate how to select a virtual population that matches the observed data without the need for weighting. This approach improves confidence in model predictions by mitigating the risk that spurious virtual patients become overrepresented in virtual populations.

Melody Track Selection Using Discriminative Language Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Xiao; Li, Ming; Suo, Hongbin; Yan, Yonghong

In this letter we focus on the task of selecting the melody track from a polyphonic MIDI file. Based on the intuition that music and language are similar in many aspects, we solve the selection problem by introducing an n-gram language model to learn the melody co-occurrence patterns in a statistical manner and determine the melodic degree of a given MIDI track. Furthermore, we propose the idea of using background model and posterior probability criteria to make modeling more discriminative. In the evaluation, the achieved 81.6% correct rate indicates the feasibility of our approach.

Model selection for Gaussian kernel PCA denoising

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kasper Winther; Hansen, Lars Kai

2012-01-01

We propose kernel Parallel Analysis (kPA) for automatic kernel scale and model order selection in Gaussian kernel PCA. Parallel Analysis [1] is based on a permutation test for covariance and has previously been applied for model order selection in linear PCA, we here augment the procedure to also...... tune the Gaussian kernel scale of radial basis function based kernel PCA.We evaluate kPA for denoising of simulated data and the US Postal data set of handwritten digits. We find that kPA outperforms other heuristics to choose the model order and kernel scale in terms of signal-to-noise ratio (SNR...

Handling missing data in ranked set sampling

CERN Document Server

Bouza-Herrera, Carlos N

2013-01-01

The existence of missing observations is a very important aspect to be considered in the application of survey sampling, for example. In human populations they may be caused by a refusal of some interviewees to give the true value for the variable of interest. Traditionally, simple random sampling is used to select samples. Most statistical models are supported by the use of samples selected by means of this design. In recent decades, an alternative design has started being used, which, in many cases, shows an improvement in terms of accuracy compared with traditional sampling. It is called R

Development of ion imprinted polymers for the selective extraction of lanthanides from environmental samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moussa, Manel

2016-01-01

The analysis of the lanthanide ions present at trace level in complex environmental matrices requires often a purification and preconcentration step. The solid phase extraction (SPE) is the most used sample preparation technique. To improve the selectivity of this step, Ion Imprinted Polymers (IIPs) can be used as SPE solid supports. The aim of this work was the development of IIPs for the selective extraction of lanthanide ions from environmental samples. In a first part, IIPs were prepared according to the trapping approach using 5,7-dichloroquinoline-8-ol as non-vinylated ligand. For the first time, the loss of the trapped ligand during template ion removal and sedimentation steps was demonstrated by HPLC-UV. Moreover, this loss was not repeatable, which led to a lack of repeatability of the SPE profiles. It was then demonstrated that the trapping approach is not appropriate for the IIPs synthesis. In a second part, IIPs were synthesized by chemical immobilization of methacrylic acid as vinylated monomer. The repeatability of the synthesis and the SPE protocol were confirmed. A good selectivity of the IIPs for all the lanthanide ions was obtained. IIPs were successfully used to selectively extract lanthanide ions from tap and river water. Finally, IIPs were synthesized by chemical immobilization of methacrylic acid and 4-vinylpyridine as functional monomers and either a light (Nd 3+ ) or a heavy (Er 3+ ) lanthanide ion as template. Both kinds of IIPs led to a similar selectivity for all lanthanide ions. Nevertheless, this selectivity can be modified by changing the nature and the pH of the washing solution used in the SPE protocol. (author)

The diagnostic value of CT scan and selective venous sampling in Cushing's syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Negoro, Makoto; Kuwayama, Akio; Yamamoto, Naoto; Nakane, Toshichi; Yokoe, Toshio; Kageyama, Naoki; Ichihara, Kaoru; Ishiguchi, Tsuneo; Sakuma, Sadayuki

1986-01-01

We studied 24 patients with Cushing's syndrome in order to find the best way to confirm the pituitary adenoma preoperatively. At first, the sellar content was studied by means of a high-resolution CT scan in each patient. Second, by selective catheterization in the bilateral internal jugular vein and the inferior petrosal sinus, venous samples (c) were obtained for ACTH assay. Simultaneously, peripheral blood sampling (P) was made at the anterior cubital vein for the same purpose, and the C/P ratio was carefully calculated in each patient. If the C/P ratio exceeded 2, it was highly suggestive of the presence of pituitary adenoma. Even by an advanced high-resolution CT scan with a thickness of 2 mm, pituitary adenomas were detected in only 32 % of the patients studied. The result of image diagnosis in Cushing disease was discouraging. As for the chemical diagnosis, the results were as follows. At the early stage of this study, the catheterization was terminated in the jugular veins of nine patients. Among these, in five patients the presence of pituitary adenoma was predicted correctly in the preoperative stage. Later, by means of inferior petrosal sinus samplings, pituitary microadenomas were detected in ten patients among the twelve. Selective venous sampling for ACTH in the inferior petrosal sinus or jugular vein proved to be useful for the differential diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome when other diagnostic measures such as CT scan were inconclusive. (author)

Adaptive Annealed Importance Sampling for Multimodal Posterior Exploration and Model Selection with Application to Extrasolar Planet Detection

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Bin

2014-07-01

We describe an algorithm that can adaptively provide mixture summaries of multimodal posterior distributions. The parameter space of the involved posteriors ranges in size from a few dimensions to dozens of dimensions. This work was motivated by an astrophysical problem called extrasolar planet (exoplanet) detection, wherein the computation of stochastic integrals that are required for Bayesian model comparison is challenging. The difficulty comes from the highly nonlinear models that lead to multimodal posterior distributions. We resort to importance sampling (IS) to estimate the integrals, and thus translate the problem to be how to find a parametric approximation of the posterior. To capture the multimodal structure in the posterior, we initialize a mixture proposal distribution and then tailor its parameters elaborately to make it resemble the posterior to the greatest extent possible. We use the effective sample size (ESS) calculated based on the IS draws to measure the degree of approximation. The bigger the ESS is, the better the proposal resembles the posterior. A difficulty within this tailoring operation lies in the adjustment of the number of mixing components in the mixture proposal. Brute force methods just preset it as a large constant, which leads to an increase in the required computational resources. We provide an iterative delete/merge/add process, which works in tandem with an expectation-maximization step to tailor such a number online. The efficiency of our proposed method is tested via both simulation studies and real exoplanet data analysis.

Selecting Sample Preparation Workflows for Mass Spectrometry-Based Proteomic and Phosphoproteomic Analysis of Patient Samples with Acute Myeloid Leukemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez-Valladares, Maria; Aasebø, Elise; Selheim, Frode; Berven, Frode S; Bruserud, Øystein

2016-08-22

Global mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomic and phosphoproteomic studies of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) biomarkers represent a powerful strategy to identify and confirm proteins and their phosphorylated modifications that could be applied in diagnosis and prognosis, as a support for individual treatment regimens and selection of patients for bone marrow transplant. MS-based studies require optimal and reproducible workflows that allow a satisfactory coverage of the proteome and its modifications. Preparation of samples for global MS analysis is a crucial step and it usually requires method testing, tuning and optimization. Different proteomic workflows that have been used to prepare AML patient samples for global MS analysis usually include a standard protein in-solution digestion procedure with a urea-based lysis buffer. The enrichment of phosphopeptides from AML patient samples has previously been carried out either with immobilized metal affinity chromatography (IMAC) or metal oxide affinity chromatography (MOAC). We have recently tested several methods of sample preparation for MS analysis of the AML proteome and phosphoproteome and introduced filter-aided sample preparation (FASP) as a superior methodology for the sensitive and reproducible generation of peptides from patient samples. FASP-prepared peptides can be further fractionated or IMAC-enriched for proteome or phosphoproteome analyses. Herein, we will review both in-solution and FASP-based sample preparation workflows and encourage the use of the latter for the highest protein and phosphorylation coverage and reproducibility.

A shared frailty model for case-cohort samples: parent and offspring relations in an adoption study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Liselotte; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Andersen, Per Kragh

2010-01-01

of their biological and adoptive parents were collected with the purpose of studying the association of survival between the adoptee and his/her biological or adoptive parents. Motivated by this study, we explored how to make inference in a shared frailty model for case-cohort data. Our approach was to use inverse......The Danish adoption register contains data on the 12 301 Danish nonfamilial adoptions during 1924-1947. From that register a case-cohort sample was selected consisting of all case adoptees, that is those adoptees dying before age 70 years, and a random sample of 1683 adoptees. The survival data...... probability weighting to account for the sampling in a conditional, shared frailty Poisson model and to use the robust variance estimator proposed by Moger et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:1062-1074).To explore the performance of the estimation procedure, a simulation study was conducted. We studied situations...

Molecularly imprinted membrane extraction combined with high-performance liquid chromatography for selective analysis of cloxacillin from shrimp samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Wei; Sun, Min; Guo, Pengqi; Chang, Chun; Fu, Qiang

2018-09-01

Nowadays, the abuse of antibiotics in aquaculture has generated considerable problems for food safety. Therefore, it is imperative to develop a simple and selective method for monitoring illegal use of antibiotics in aquatic products. In this study, a method combined molecularly imprinted membranes (MIMs) extraction and liquid chromatography was developed for the selective analysis of cloxacillin from shrimp samples. The MIMs was synthesized by UV photopolymerization, and characterized by scanning electron microscope, Fourier transform infrared spectra, thermo-gravimetric analysis and swelling test. The results showed that the MIMs exhibited excellent permselectivity, high adsorption capacity and fast adsorption rate for cloxacillin. Finally, the method was utilized to determine cloxacillin from shrimp samples, with good accuracies and acceptable relative standard deviation values for precision. The proposed method was a promising alternative for selective analysis of cloxacillin in shrimp samples, due to the easy-operation and excellent selectivity. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A model for estimating the minimum number of offspring to sample in studies of reproductive success.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Joseph H; Ward, Eric J; Carlson, Stephanie M

2011-01-01

Molecular parentage permits studies of selection and evolution in fecund species with cryptic mating systems, such as fish, amphibians, and insects. However, there exists no method for estimating the number of offspring that must be assigned parentage to achieve robust estimates of reproductive success when only a fraction of offspring can be sampled. We constructed a 2-stage model that first estimated the mean (μ) and variance (v) in reproductive success from published studies on salmonid fishes and then sampled offspring from reproductive success distributions simulated from the μ and v estimates. Results provided strong support for modeling salmonid reproductive success via the negative binomial distribution and suggested that few offspring samples are needed to reject the null hypothesis of uniform offspring production. However, the sampled reproductive success distributions deviated significantly (χ(2) goodness-of-fit test p value reproductive success distribution at rates often >0.05 and as high as 0.24, even when hundreds of offspring were assigned parentage. In general, reproductive success patterns were less accurate when offspring were sampled from cohorts with larger numbers of parents and greater variance in reproductive success. Our model can be reparameterized with data from other species and will aid researchers in planning reproductive success studies by providing explicit sampling targets required to accurately assess reproductive success.

A novel approach to assessing environmental disturbance based on habitat selection by zebra fish as a model organism.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Cristiano V M; Griffith, Daniel M; Vera-Vera, Victoria; Jentzsch, Paul Vargas; Cervera, Laura; Nieto-Ariza, Beatriz; Salvatierra, David; Erazo, Santiago; Jaramillo, Rusbel; Ramos, Luis A; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Ribeiro, Rui

2018-04-01

Aquatic ecotoxicity assays used to assess ecological risk assume that organisms living in a contaminated habitat are forcedly exposed to the contamination. This assumption neglects the ability of organisms to detect and avoid contamination by moving towards less disturbed habitats, as long as connectivity exists. In fluvial systems, many environmental parameters vary spatially and thus condition organisms' habitat selection. We assessed the preference of zebra fish (Danio rerio) when exposed to water samples from two western Ecuadorian rivers with apparently distinct disturbance levels: Pescadillo River (highly disturbed) and Oro River (moderately disturbed). Using a non-forced exposure system in which water samples from each river were arranged according to their spatial sequence in the field and connected to allow individuals to move freely among samples, we assayed habitat selection by D. rerio to assess environmental disturbance in the two rivers. Fish exposed to Pescadillo River samples preferred downstream samples near the confluence zone with the Oro River. Fish exposed to Oro River samples preferred upstream waters. When exposed to samples from both rivers simultaneously, fish exhibited the same pattern of habitat selection by preferring the Oro River samples. Given that the rivers are connected, preference for the Oro River enabled us to predict a depression in fish populations in the Pescadillo River. Although these findings indicate higher disturbance levels in the Pescadillo River, none of the physical-chemical variables measured was significantly correlated with the preference pattern towards the Oro River. Non-linear spatial patterns of habitat preference suggest that other environmental parameters like urban or agricultural contaminants play an important role in the model organism's habitat selection in these rivers. The non-forced exposure system represents a habitat selection-based approach that can serve as a valuable tool to unravel the factors

Re-Emergence of Under-Selected Stimuli, after the Extinction of Over-Selected Stimuli in an Automated Match to Samples Procedure

Science.gov (United States)

Broomfield, Laura; McHugh, Louise; Reed, Phil

2008-01-01

Stimulus over-selectivity occurs when one of potentially many aspects of the environment comes to control behaviour. In two experiments, adults with no developmental disabilities, were trained and tested in an automated match to samples (MTS) paradigm. In Experiment 1, participants completed two conditions, in one of which the over-selected…

Selection of representative calibration sample sets for near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy to predict nitrogen concentration in grasses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shetty, Nisha; Rinnan, Åsmund; Gislum, René

2012-01-01

) algorithm were used and compared. Both Puchwein and CADEX methods provide a calibration set equally distributed in space, and both methods require a minimum prior of knowledge. The samples were also selected randomly using complete random, cultivar random (year fixed), year random (cultivar fixed......) and interaction (cultivar × year fixed) random procedures to see the influence of different factors on sample selection. Puchwein's method performed best with lowest RMSEP followed by CADEX, interaction random, year random, cultivar random and complete random. Out of 118 samples of the complete calibration set...... effectively enhance the cost-effectiveness of NIR spectral analysis by reducing the number of analyzed samples in the calibration set by more than 80%, which substantially reduces the effort of laboratory analyses with no significant loss in prediction accuracy....

Effect of dissolved organic matter on pre-equilibrium passive sampling: A predictive QSAR modeling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Wei; Jiang, Ruifen; Shen, Yong; Xiong, Yaxin; Hu, Sizi; Xu, Jianqiao; Ouyang, Gangfeng

2018-04-13

Pre-equilibrium passive sampling is a simple and promising technique for studying sampling kinetics, which is crucial to determine the distribution, transfer and fate of hydrophobic organic compounds (HOCs) in environmental water and organisms. Environmental water samples contain complex matrices that complicate the traditional calibration process for obtaining the accurate rate constants. This study proposed a QSAR model to predict the sampling rate constants of HOCs (polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and pesticides) in aqueous systems containing complex matrices. A homemade flow-through system was established to simulate an actual aqueous environment containing dissolved organic matter (DOM) i.e. humic acid (HA) and (2-Hydroxypropyl)-β-cyclodextrin (β-HPCD)), and to obtain the experimental rate constants. Then, a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model using Genetic Algorithm-Multiple Linear Regression (GA-MLR) was found to correlate the experimental rate constants to the system state including physicochemical parameters of the HOCs and DOM which were calculated and selected as descriptors by Density Functional Theory (DFT) and Chem 3D. The experimental results showed that the rate constants significantly increased as the concentration of DOM increased, and the enhancement factors of 70-fold and 34-fold were observed for the HOCs in HA and β-HPCD, respectively. The established QSAR model was validated as credible (R Adj. 2 =0.862) and predictable (Q 2 =0.835) in estimating the rate constants of HOCs for complex aqueous sampling, and a probable mechanism was developed by comparison to the reported theoretical study. The present study established a QSAR model of passive sampling rate constants and calibrated the effect of DOM on the sampling kinetics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A large sample of Kohonen-selected SDSS quasars with weak emission lines: selection effects and statistical properties

Science.gov (United States)

Meusinger, H.; Balafkan, N.

2014-08-01

Aims: A tiny fraction of the quasar population shows remarkably weak emission lines. Several hypotheses have been developed, but the weak line quasar (WLQ) phenomenon still remains puzzling. The aim of this study was to create a sizeable sample of WLQs and WLQ-like objects and to evaluate various properties of this sample. Methods: We performed a search for WLQs in the spectroscopic data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 7 based on Kohonen self-organising maps for nearly 105 quasar spectra. The final sample consists of 365 quasars in the redshift range z = 0.6 - 4.2 (z¯ = 1.50 ± 0.45) and includes in particular a subsample of 46 WLQs with equivalent widths WMg iiattention was paid to selection effects. Results: The WLQs have, on average, significantly higher luminosities, Eddington ratios, and accretion rates. About half of the excess comes from a selection bias, but an intrinsic excess remains probably caused primarily by higher accretion rates. The spectral energy distribution shows a bluer continuum at rest-frame wavelengths ≳1500 Å. The variability in the optical and UV is relatively low, even taking the variability-luminosity anti-correlation into account. The percentage of radio detected quasars and of core-dominant radio sources is significantly higher than for the control sample, whereas the mean radio-loudness is lower. Conclusions: The properties of our WLQ sample can be consistently understood assuming that it consists of a mix of quasars at the beginning of a stage of increased accretion activity and of beamed radio-quiet quasars. The higher luminosities and Eddington ratios in combination with a bluer spectral energy distribution can be explained by hotter continua, i.e. higher accretion rates. If quasar activity consists of subphases with different accretion rates, a change towards a higher rate is probably accompanied by an only slow development of the broad line region. The composite WLQ spectrum can be reasonably matched by the

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Gile, Krista J; Handcock, Mark S

2015-06-01

Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population.

Antibiotic content of selective culture media for isolation of Capnocytophaga species from oral polymicrobial samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Ehrmann, E; Jolivet-Gougeon, A; Bonnaure-Mallet, M; Fosse, T

2013-10-01

In oral microbiome, because of the abundance of commensal competitive flora, selective media with antibiotics are necessary for the recovery of fastidious Capnocytophaga species. The performances of six culture media (blood agar, chocolate blood agar, VCAT medium, CAPE medium, bacitracin chocolate blood agar and VK medium) were compared with literature data concerning five other media (FAA, LB, TSBV, CapR and TBBP media). To understand variable growth on selective media, the MICs of each antimicrobial agent contained in this different media (colistin, kanamycin, trimethoprim, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, vancomycin, aztreonam and bacitracin) were determined for all Capnocytophaga species. Overall, VCAT medium (Columbia, 10% cooked horse blood, polyvitaminic supplement, 3·75 mg l(-1) of colistin, 1·5 mg l(-1) of trimethoprim, 1 mg l(-1) of vancomycin and 0·5 mg l(-1) of amphotericin B, Oxoid, France) was the more efficient selective medium, with regard to the detection of Capnocytophaga species from oral samples (P culture, a simple blood agar allowed the growth of all Capnocytophaga species. Nonetheless, in oral samples, because of the abundance of commensal competitive flora, selective media with antibiotics are necessary for the recovery of Capnocytophaga species. The demonstrated superiority of VCAT medium made its use essential for the optimal detection of this bacterial genus. This work showed that extreme caution should be exercised when reporting the isolation of Capnocytophaga species from oral polymicrobial samples, because the culture medium is a determining factor. © 2013 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

A SUPPLIER SELECTION MODEL FOR SOFTWARE DEVELOPMENT OUTSOURCING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hancu Lucian-Viorel

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a multi-criteria decision making model used for supplier selection for software development outsourcing on e-marketplaces. This model can be used in auctions. The supplier selection process becomes complex and difficult on last twenty years since the Internet plays an important role in business management. Companies have to concentrate their efforts on their core activities and the others activities should be realized by outsourcing. They can achieve significant cost reduction by using e-marketplaces in their purchase process and by using decision support systems on supplier selection. In the literature were proposed many approaches for supplier evaluation and selection process. The performance of potential suppliers is evaluated using multi criteria decision making methods rather than considering a single factor cost.

Selecting Sample Preparation Workflows for Mass Spectrometry-Based Proteomic and Phosphoproteomic Analysis of Patient Samples with Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Hernandez-Valladares

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Global mass spectrometry (MS-based proteomic and phosphoproteomic studies of acute myeloid leukemia (AML biomarkers represent a powerful strategy to identify and confirm proteins and their phosphorylated modifications that could be applied in diagnosis and prognosis, as a support for individual treatment regimens and selection of patients for bone marrow transplant. MS-based studies require optimal and reproducible workflows that allow a satisfactory coverage of the proteome and its modifications. Preparation of samples for global MS analysis is a crucial step and it usually requires method testing, tuning and optimization. Different proteomic workflows that have been used to prepare AML patient samples for global MS analysis usually include a standard protein in-solution digestion procedure with a urea-based lysis buffer. The enrichment of phosphopeptides from AML patient samples has previously been carried out either with immobilized metal affinity chromatography (IMAC or metal oxide affinity chromatography (MOAC. We have recently tested several methods of sample preparation for MS analysis of the AML proteome and phosphoproteome and introduced filter-aided sample preparation (FASP as a superior methodology for the sensitive and reproducible generation of peptides from patient samples. FASP-prepared peptides can be further fractionated or IMAC-enriched for proteome or phosphoproteome analyses. Herein, we will review both in-solution and FASP-based sample preparation workflows and encourage the use of the latter for the highest protein and phosphorylation coverage and reproducibility.

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

Science.gov (United States)

Gile, Krista J.; Handcock, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Summary Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population. PMID:26640328

Selective extraction of dimethoate from cucumber samples by use of molecularly imprinted microspheres

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiao-Jiao Du

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Molecularly imprinted polymers for dimethoate recognition were synthesized by the precipitation polymerization technique using methyl methacrylate (MMA as the functional monomer and ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA as the cross-linker. The morphology, adsorption and recognition properties were investigated by scanning electron microscopy (SEM, static adsorption test, and competitive adsorption test. To obtain the best selectivity and binding performance, the synthesis and adsorption conditions of MIPs were optimized through single factor experiments. Under the optimized conditions, the resultant polymers exhibited uniform size, satisfactory binding capacity and significant selectivity. Furthermore, the imprinted polymers were successfully applied as a specific solid-phase extractants combined with high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC for determination of dimethoate residues in the cucumber samples. The average recoveries of three spiked samples ranged from 78.5% to 87.9% with the relative standard deviations (RSDs less than 4.4% and the limit of detection (LOD obtained for dimethoate as low as 2.3 μg/mL. Keywords: Molecularly imprinted polymer, Precipitation polymerization, Dimethoate, Cucumber, HPLC

X-Ray Temperatures, Luminosities, and Masses from XMM-Newton Follow-up of the First Shear-selected Galaxy Cluster Sample

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deshpande, Amruta J.; Hughes, John P. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rutgers the State University of New Jersey, 136 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854 (United States); Wittman, David, E-mail: amrejd@physics.rutgers.edu, E-mail: jph@physics.rutgers.edu, E-mail: dwittman@physics.ucdavis.edu [Department of Physics, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616 (United States)

2017-04-20

We continue the study of the first sample of shear-selected clusters from the initial 8.6 square degrees of the Deep Lens Survey (DLS); a sample with well-defined selection criteria corresponding to the highest ranked shear peaks in the survey area. We aim to characterize the weak lensing selection by examining the sample’s X-ray properties. There are multiple X-ray clusters associated with nearly all the shear peaks: 14 X-ray clusters corresponding to seven DLS shear peaks. An additional three X-ray clusters cannot be definitively associated with shear peaks, mainly due to large positional offsets between the X-ray centroid and the shear peak. Here we report on the XMM-Newton properties of the 17 X-ray clusters. The X-ray clusters display a wide range of luminosities and temperatures; the L {sub X} − T {sub X} relation we determine for the shear-associated X-ray clusters is consistent with X-ray cluster samples selected without regard to dynamical state, while it is inconsistent with self-similarity. For a subset of the sample, we measure X-ray masses using temperature as a proxy, and compare to weak lensing masses determined by the DLS team. The resulting mass comparison is consistent with equality. The X-ray and weak lensing masses show considerable intrinsic scatter (∼48%), which is consistent with X-ray selected samples when their X-ray and weak lensing masses are independently determined.

A Unimodal Model for Double Observer Distance Sampling Surveys.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Earl F Becker

Full Text Available Distance sampling is a widely used method to estimate animal population size. Most distance sampling models utilize a monotonically decreasing detection function such as a half-normal. Recent advances in distance sampling modeling allow for the incorporation of covariates into the distance model, and the elimination of the assumption of perfect detection at some fixed distance (usually the transect line with the use of double-observer models. The assumption of full observer independence in the double-observer model is problematic, but can be addressed by using the point independence assumption which assumes there is one distance, the apex of the detection function, where the 2 observers are assumed independent. Aerially collected distance sampling data can have a unimodal shape and have been successfully modeled with a gamma detection function. Covariates in gamma detection models cause the apex of detection to shift depending upon covariate levels, making this model incompatible with the point independence assumption when using double-observer data. This paper reports a unimodal detection model based on a two-piece normal distribution that allows covariates, has only one apex, and is consistent with the point independence assumption when double-observer data are utilized. An aerial line-transect survey of black bears in Alaska illustrate how this method can be applied.

A sampling-based Bayesian model for gas saturation estimationusing seismic AVA and marine CSEM data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Jinsong; Hoversten, Michael; Vasco, Don; Rubin, Yoram; Hou,Zhangshuan

2006-04-04

We develop a sampling-based Bayesian model to jointly invertseismic amplitude versus angles (AVA) and marine controlled-sourceelectromagnetic (CSEM) data for layered reservoir models. The porosityand fluid saturation in each layer of the reservoir, the seismic P- andS-wave velocity and density in the layers below and above the reservoir,and the electrical conductivity of the overburden are considered asrandom variables. Pre-stack seismic AVA data in a selected time windowand real and quadrature components of the recorded electrical field areconsidered as data. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplingmethods to obtain a large number of samples from the joint posteriordistribution function. Using those samples, we obtain not only estimatesof each unknown variable, but also its uncertainty information. Thedeveloped method is applied to both synthetic and field data to explorethe combined use of seismic AVA and EM data for gas saturationestimation. Results show that the developed method is effective for jointinversion, and the incorporation of CSEM data reduces uncertainty influid saturation estimation, when compared to results from inversion ofAVA data only.

Pareto-Optimal Model Selection via SPRINT-Race.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Tiantian; Georgiopoulos, Michael; Anagnostopoulos, Georgios C

2018-02-01

In machine learning, the notion of multi-objective model selection (MOMS) refers to the problem of identifying the set of Pareto-optimal models that optimize by compromising more than one predefined objectives simultaneously. This paper introduces SPRINT-Race, the first multi-objective racing algorithm in a fixed-confidence setting, which is based on the sequential probability ratio with indifference zone test. SPRINT-Race addresses the problem of MOMS with multiple stochastic optimization objectives in the proper Pareto-optimality sense. In SPRINT-Race, a pairwise dominance or non-dominance relationship is statistically inferred via a non-parametric, ternary-decision, dual-sequential probability ratio test. The overall probability of falsely eliminating any Pareto-optimal models or mistakenly returning any clearly dominated models is strictly controlled by a sequential Holm's step-down family-wise error rate control method. As a fixed-confidence model selection algorithm, the objective of SPRINT-Race is to minimize the computational effort required to achieve a prescribed confidence level about the quality of the returned models. The performance of SPRINT-Race is first examined via an artificially constructed MOMS problem with known ground truth. Subsequently, SPRINT-Race is applied on two real-world applications: 1) hybrid recommender system design and 2) multi-criteria stock selection. The experimental results verify that SPRINT-Race is an effective and efficient tool for such MOMS problems. code of SPRINT-Race is available at https://github.com/watera427/SPRINT-Race.

Phytochemical analysis and biological evaluation of selected African propolis samples from Cameroon and Congo

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Papachroni, D.; Graikou, K.; Kosalec, I.; Damianakos, H.; Ingram, V.J.; Chinou, I.

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was the chemical analysis of four selected samples of African propolis (Congo and Cameroon) and their biological evaluation. Twenty-one secondary metabolites belonging to four different chemical groups were isolated from the 70% ethanolic extracts of propolis and their

On Optimal Input Design and Model Selection for Communication Channels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Yanyan [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL

2013-01-01

In this paper, the optimal model (structure) selection and input design which minimize the worst case identification error for communication systems are provided. The problem is formulated using metric complexity theory in a Hilbert space setting. It is pointed out that model selection and input design can be handled independently. Kolmogorov n-width is used to characterize the representation error introduced by model selection, while Gel fand and Time n-widths are used to represent the inherent error introduced by input design. After the model is selected, an optimal input which minimizes the worst case identification error is shown to exist. In particular, it is proven that the optimal model for reducing the representation error is a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) model, and the optimal input is an impulse at the start of the observation interval. FIR models are widely popular in communication systems, such as, in Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) systems.

Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Chuffart

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a regime switching framework. We focus on two types of models: the Logistic Smooth Transition GARCH and the Markov-Switching GARCH models. Simulation experiments reveal that information criteria and loss functions can lead to misspecification ; BIC sometimes indicates the wrong regime switching framework. Depending on the Data Generating Process used in the experiments, great care is needed when choosing a criterion.

Working covariance model selection for generalized estimating equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, Vincent J; Wang, You-Gan

2011-11-20

We investigate methods for data-based selection of working covariance models in the analysis of correlated data with generalized estimating equations. We study two selection criteria: Gaussian pseudolikelihood and a geodesic distance based on discrepancy between model-sensitive and model-robust regression parameter covariance estimators. The Gaussian pseudolikelihood is found in simulation to be reasonably sensitive for several response distributions and noncanonical mean-variance relations for longitudinal data. Application is also made to a clinical dataset. Assessment of adequacy of both correlation and variance models for longitudinal data should be routine in applications, and we describe open-source software supporting this practice. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Applying Four Different Risk Models in Local Ore Selection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Richmond, Andrew

2002-01-01

Given the uncertainty in grade at a mine location, a financially risk-averse decision-maker may prefer to incorporate this uncertainty into the ore selection process. A FORTRAN program risksel is presented to calculate local risk-adjusted optimal ore selections using a negative exponential utility function and three dominance models: mean-variance, mean-downside risk, and stochastic dominance. All four methods are demonstrated in a grade control environment. In the case study, optimal selections range with the magnitude of financial risk that a decision-maker is prepared to accept. Except for the stochastic dominance method, the risk models reassign material from higher cost to lower cost processing options as the aversion to financial risk increases. The stochastic dominance model usually was unable to determine the optimal local selection

Detecting consistent patterns of directional adaptation using differential selection codon models.

Science.gov (United States)

Parto, Sahar; Lartillot, Nicolas

2017-06-23

Phylogenetic codon models are often used to characterize the selective regimes acting on protein-coding sequences. Recent methodological developments have led to models explicitly accounting for the interplay between mutation and selection, by modeling the amino acid fitness landscape along the sequence. However, thus far, most of these models have assumed that the fitness landscape is constant over time. Fluctuations of the fitness landscape may often be random or depend on complex and unknown factors. However, some organisms may be subject to systematic changes in selective pressure, resulting in reproducible molecular adaptations across independent lineages subject to similar conditions. Here, we introduce a codon-based differential selection model, which aims to detect and quantify the fine-grained consistent patterns of adaptation at the protein-coding level, as a function of external conditions experienced by the organism under investigation. The model parameterizes the global mutational pressure, as well as the site- and condition-specific amino acid selective preferences. This phylogenetic model is implemented in a Bayesian MCMC framework. After validation with simulations, we applied our method to a dataset of HIV sequences from patients with known HLA genetic background. Our differential selection model detects and characterizes differentially selected coding positions specifically associated with two different HLA alleles. Our differential selection model is able to identify consistent molecular adaptations as a function of repeated changes in the environment of the organism. These models can be applied to many other problems, ranging from viral adaptation to evolution of life-history strategies in plants or animals.

Surface reconstruction through poisson disk sampling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenguang Hou

Full Text Available This paper intends to generate the approximate Voronoi diagram in the geodesic metric for some unbiased samples selected from original points. The mesh model of seeds is then constructed on basis of the Voronoi diagram. Rather than constructing the Voronoi diagram for all original points, the proposed strategy is to run around the obstacle that the geodesic distances among neighboring points are sensitive to nearest neighbor definition. It is obvious that the reconstructed model is the level of detail of original points. Hence, our main motivation is to deal with the redundant scattered points. In implementation, Poisson disk sampling is taken to select seeds and helps to produce the Voronoi diagram. Adaptive reconstructions can be achieved by slightly changing the uniform strategy in selecting seeds. Behaviors of this method are investigated and accuracy evaluations are done. Experimental results show the proposed method is reliable and effective.

Variable selection in Logistic regression model with genetic algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhongheng; Trevino, Victor; Hoseini, Sayed Shahabuddin; Belciug, Smaranda; Boopathi, Arumugam Manivanna; Zhang, Ping; Gorunescu, Florin; Subha, Velappan; Dai, Songshi

2018-02-01

Variable or feature selection is one of the most important steps in model specification. Especially in the case of medical-decision making, the direct use of a medical database, without a previous analysis and preprocessing step, is often counterproductive. In this way, the variable selection represents the method of choosing the most relevant attributes from the database in order to build a robust learning models and, thus, to improve the performance of the models used in the decision process. In biomedical research, the purpose of variable selection is to select clinically important and statistically significant variables, while excluding unrelated or noise variables. A variety of methods exist for variable selection, but none of them is without limitations. For example, the stepwise approach, which is highly used, adds the best variable in each cycle generally producing an acceptable set of variables. Nevertheless, it is limited by the fact that it commonly trapped in local optima. The best subset approach can systematically search the entire covariate pattern space, but the solution pool can be extremely large with tens to hundreds of variables, which is the case in nowadays clinical data. Genetic algorithms (GA) are heuristic optimization approaches and can be used for variable selection in multivariable regression models. This tutorial paper aims to provide a step-by-step approach to the use of GA in variable selection. The R code provided in the text can be extended and adapted to other data analysis needs.

Equilibrium and nonequilibrium attractors for a discrete, selection-migration model

Science.gov (United States)

James F. Selgrade; James H. Roberds

2003-01-01

This study presents a discrete-time model for the effects of selection and immigration on the demographic and genetic compositions of a population. Under biologically reasonable conditions, it is shown that the model always has an equilibrium. Although equilibria for similar models without migration must have real eigenvalues, for this selection-migration model we...

PWR steam generator tubing sample library

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1987-01-01

In order to compile the tubing sample library, two approaches were employed: (a) tubing sample replication by either chemical or mechanical means, based on field tube data and metallography reports for tubes already destructively examined; and (b) acquisition of field tubes removed from operating or retired steam generators. In addition, a unique mercury modeling concept is in use to guide the selection of replica samples. A compendium was compiled that summarizes field observations and morphologies of steam generator tube degradation types based on available NDE, destructive examinations, and field reports. This compendium was used in selecting candidate degradation types that were manufactured for inclusion in the tube library

Exact sampling hardness of Ising spin models

Science.gov (United States)

Fefferman, B.; Foss-Feig, M.; Gorshkov, A. V.

2017-09-01

We study the complexity of classically sampling from the output distribution of an Ising spin model, which can be implemented naturally in a variety of atomic, molecular, and optical systems. In particular, we construct a specific example of an Ising Hamiltonian that, after time evolution starting from a trivial initial state, produces a particular output configuration with probability very nearly proportional to the square of the permanent of a matrix with arbitrary integer entries. In a similar spirit to boson sampling, the ability to sample classically from the probability distribution induced by time evolution under this Hamiltonian would imply unlikely complexity theoretic consequences, suggesting that the dynamics of such a spin model cannot be efficiently simulated with a classical computer. Physical Ising spin systems capable of achieving problem-size instances (i.e., qubit numbers) large enough so that classical sampling of the output distribution is classically difficult in practice may be achievable in the near future. Unlike boson sampling, our current results only imply hardness of exact classical sampling, leaving open the important question of whether a much stronger approximate-sampling hardness result holds in this context. The latter is most likely necessary to enable a convincing experimental demonstration of quantum supremacy. As referenced in a recent paper [A. Bouland, L. Mancinska, and X. Zhang, in Proceedings of the 31st Conference on Computational Complexity (CCC 2016), Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (Schloss Dagstuhl-Leibniz-Zentrum für Informatik, Dagstuhl, 2016)], our result completes the sampling hardness classification of two-qubit commuting Hamiltonians.

Detection of Salmonella spp. in veterinary samples by combining selective enrichment and real-time PCR.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodman, Laura B; McDonough, Patrick L; Anderson, Renee R; Franklin-Guild, Rebecca J; Ryan, James R; Perkins, Gillian A; Thachil, Anil J; Glaser, Amy L; Thompson, Belinda S

2017-11-01

Rapid screening for enteric bacterial pathogens in clinical environments is essential for biosecurity. Salmonella found in veterinary hospitals, particularly Salmonella enterica serovar Dublin, can pose unique challenges for culture and testing because of its poor growth. Multiple Salmonella serovars including Dublin are emerging threats to public health given increasing prevalence and antimicrobial resistance. We adapted an automated food testing method to veterinary samples and evaluated the performance of the method in a variety of matrices including environmental samples ( n = 81), tissues ( n = 52), feces ( n = 148), and feed ( n = 29). A commercial kit was chosen as the basis for this approach in view of extensive performance characterizations published by multiple independent organizations. A workflow was established for efficiently and accurately testing veterinary matrices and environmental samples by use of real-time PCR after selective enrichment in Rappaport-Vassiliadis soya (RVS) medium. Using this method, the detection limit for S. Dublin improved by 100-fold over subculture on selective agars (eosin-methylene blue, brilliant green, and xylose-lysine-deoxycholate). Overall, the procedure was effective in detecting Salmonella spp. and provided next-day results.

A Gambler's Model of Natural Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, Michael J.; Ostrovsky, David S.

1996-01-01

Presents an activity that highlights the mechanism and power of natural selection. Allows students to think in terms of modeling a biological process and instills an appreciation for a mathematical approach to biological problems. (JRH)

Sample selection via angular distance in the space of the arguments of an artificial neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández Jaramillo, J. M.; Mayerle, R.

2018-05-01

In the construction of an artificial neural network (ANN) a proper data splitting of the available samples plays a major role in the training process. This selection of subsets for training, testing and validation affects the generalization ability of the neural network. Also the number of samples has an impact in the time required for the design of the ANN and the training. This paper introduces an efficient and simple method for reducing the set of samples used for training a neural network. The method reduces the required time to calculate the network coefficients, while keeping the diversity and avoiding overtraining the ANN due the presence of similar samples. The proposed method is based on the calculation of the angle between two vectors, each one representing one input of the neural network. When the angle formed among samples is smaller than a defined threshold only one input is accepted for the training. The accepted inputs are scattered throughout the sample space. Tidal records are used to demonstrate the proposed method. The results of a cross-validation show that with few inputs the quality of the outputs is not accurate and depends on the selection of the first sample, but as the number of inputs increases the accuracy is improved and differences among the scenarios with a different starting sample have and important reduction. A comparison with the K-means clustering algorithm shows that for this application the proposed method with a smaller number of samples is producing a more accurate network.

Electricity Price Forecast Using Combined Models with Adaptive Weights Selected and Errors Calibrated by Hidden Markov Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Da Liu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A combined forecast with weights adaptively selected and errors calibrated by Hidden Markov model (HMM is proposed to model the day-ahead electricity price. Firstly several single models were built to forecast the electricity price separately. Then the validation errors from every individual model were transformed into two discrete sequences: an emission sequence and a state sequence to build the HMM, obtaining a transmission matrix and an emission matrix, representing the forecasting ability state of the individual models. The combining weights of the individual models were decided by the state transmission matrixes in HMM and the best predict sample ratio of each individual among all the models in the validation set. The individual forecasts were averaged to get the combining forecast with the weights obtained above. The residuals of combining forecast were calibrated by the possible error calculated by the emission matrix of HMM. A case study of day-ahead electricity market of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM, USA, suggests that the proposed method outperforms individual techniques of price forecasting, such as support vector machine (SVM, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, day-ahead modeling, and self-organized map (SOM similar days modeling.

Mate-sampling costs and sexy sons.

Science.gov (United States)

Kokko, H; Booksmythe, I; Jennions, M D

2015-01-01

Costly female mating preferences for purely Fisherian male traits (i.e. sexual ornaments that are genetically uncorrelated with inherent viability) are not expected to persist at equilibrium. The indirect benefit of producing 'sexy sons' (Fisher process) disappears: in some models, the male trait becomes fixed; in others, a range of male trait values persist, but a larger trait confers no net fitness advantage because it lowers survival. Insufficient indirect selection to counter the direct cost of producing fewer offspring means that preferences are lost. The only well-cited exception assumes biased mutation on male traits. The above findings generally assume constant direct selection against female preferences (i.e. fixed costs). We show that if mate-sampling costs are instead derived based on an explicit account of how females acquire mates, an initially costly mating preference can coevolve with a male trait so that both persist in the presence or absence of biased mutation. Our models predict that empirically detecting selection at equilibrium will be difficult, even if selection was responsible for the location of the current equilibrium. In general, it appears useful to integrate mate sampling theory with models of genetic consequences of mating preferences: being explicit about the process by which individuals select mates can alter equilibria. © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2014 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Multiscale sampling model for motion integration.

Science.gov (United States)

Sherbakov, Lena; Yazdanbakhsh, Arash

2013-09-30

Biologically plausible strategies for visual scene integration across spatial and temporal domains continues to be a challenging topic. The fundamental question we address is whether classical problems in motion integration, such as the aperture problem, can be solved in a model that samples the visual scene at multiple spatial and temporal scales in parallel. We hypothesize that fast interareal connections that allow feedback of information between cortical layers are the key processes that disambiguate motion direction. We developed a neural model showing how the aperture problem can be solved using different spatial sampling scales between LGN, V1 layer 4, V1 layer 6, and area MT. Our results suggest that multiscale sampling, rather than feedback explicitly, is the key process that gives rise to end-stopped cells in V1 and enables area MT to solve the aperture problem without the need for calculating intersecting constraints or crafting intricate patterns of spatiotemporal receptive fields. Furthermore, the model explains why end-stopped cells no longer emerge in the absence of V1 layer 6 activity (Bolz & Gilbert, 1986), why V1 layer 4 cells are significantly more end-stopped than V1 layer 6 cells (Pack, Livingstone, Duffy, & Born, 2003), and how it is possible to have a solution to the aperture problem in area MT with no solution in V1 in the presence of driving feedback. In summary, while much research in the field focuses on how a laminar architecture can give rise to complicated spatiotemporal receptive fields to solve problems in the motion domain, we show that one can reframe motion integration as an emergent property of multiscale sampling achieved concurrently within lamina and across multiple visual areas.

Evaluation and comparison of alternative fleet-level selective maintenance models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Kellie; Richard Cassady, C.

2015-01-01

Fleet-level selective maintenance refers to the process of identifying the subset of maintenance actions to perform on a fleet of repairable systems when the maintenance resources allocated to the fleet are insufficient for performing all desirable maintenance actions. The original fleet-level selective maintenance model is designed to maximize the probability that all missions in a future set are completed successfully. We extend this model in several ways. First, we consider a cost-based optimization model and show that a special case of this model maximizes the expected value of the number of successful missions in the future set. We also consider the situation in which one or more of the future missions may be canceled. These models and the original fleet-level selective maintenance optimization models are nonlinear. Therefore, we also consider an alternative model in which the objective function can be linearized. We show that the alternative model is a good approximation to the other models. - Highlights: • Investigate nonlinear fleet-level selective maintenance optimization models. • A cost based model is used to maximize the expected number of successful missions. • Another model is allowed to cancel missions if reliability is sufficiently low. • An alternative model has an objective function that can be linearized. • We show that the alternative model is a good approximation to the other models

Heuristic algorithms for feature selection under Bayesian models with block-diagonal covariance structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Foroughi Pour, Ali; Dalton, Lori A

2018-03-21

Many bioinformatics studies aim to identify markers, or features, that can be used to discriminate between distinct groups. In problems where strong individual markers are not available, or where interactions between gene products are of primary interest, it may be necessary to consider combinations of features as a marker family. To this end, recent work proposes a hierarchical Bayesian framework for feature selection that places a prior on the set of features we wish to select and on the label-conditioned feature distribution. While an analytical posterior under Gaussian models with block covariance structures is available, the optimal feature selection algorithm for this model remains intractable since it requires evaluating the posterior over the space of all possible covariance block structures and feature-block assignments. To address this computational barrier, in prior work we proposed a simple suboptimal algorithm, 2MNC-Robust, with robust performance across the space of block structures. Here, we present three new heuristic feature selection algorithms. The proposed algorithms outperform 2MNC-Robust and many other popular feature selection algorithms on synthetic data. In addition, enrichment analysis on real breast cancer, colon cancer, and Leukemia data indicates they also output many of the genes and pathways linked to the cancers under study. Bayesian feature selection is a promising framework for small-sample high-dimensional data, in particular biomarker discovery applications. When applied to cancer data these algorithms outputted many genes already shown to be involved in cancer as well as potentially new biomarkers. Furthermore, one of the proposed algorithms, SPM, outputs blocks of heavily correlated genes, particularly useful for studying gene interactions and gene networks.

Efficiency enhancement of optimized Latin hypercube sampling strategies: Application to Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis and meta-modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad; Janssen, Hans

2015-02-01

The majority of literature regarding optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) is devoted to increasing the efficiency of these sampling strategies through the development of new algorithms based on the combination of innovative space-filling criteria and specialized optimization schemes. However, little attention has been given to the impact of the initial design that is fed into the optimization algorithm, on the efficiency of OLHS strategies. Previous studies, as well as codes developed for OLHS, have relied on one of the following two approaches for the selection of the initial design in OLHS: (1) the use of random points in the hypercube intervals (random LHS), and (2) the use of midpoints in the hypercube intervals (midpoint LHS). Both approaches have been extensively used, but no attempt has been previously made to compare the efficiency and robustness of their resulting sample designs. In this study we compare the two approaches and show that the space-filling characteristics of OLHS designs are sensitive to the initial design that is fed into the optimization algorithm. It is also illustrated that the space-filling characteristics of OLHS designs based on midpoint LHS are significantly better those based on random LHS. The two approaches are compared by incorporating their resulting sample designs in Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) for uncertainty propagation analysis, and then, by employing the sample designs in the selection of the training set for constructing non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (NIPCE) meta-models which subsequently replace the original full model in MCSs. The analysis is based on two case studies involving numerical simulation of density dependent flow and solute transport in porous media within the context of seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers. We show that the use of midpoint LHS as the initial design increases the efficiency and robustness of the resulting MCSs and NIPCE meta-models. The study also illustrates that this

Short-Run Asset Selection using a Logistic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Walter Gonçalves Junior

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Investors constantly look for significant predictors and accurate models to forecast future results, whose occasional efficacy end up being neutralized by market efficiency. Regardless, such predictors are widely used for seeking better (and more unique perceptions. This paper aims to investigate to what extent some of the most notorious indicators have discriminatory power to select stocks, and if it is feasible with such variables to build models that could anticipate those with good performance. In order to do that, logistical regressions were conducted with stocks traded at Bovespa using the selected indicators as explanatory variables. Investigated in this study were the outputs of Bovespa Index, liquidity, the Sharpe Ratio, ROE, MB, size and age evidenced to be significant predictors. Also examined were half-year, logistical models, which were adjusted in order to check the potential acceptable discriminatory power for the asset selection.

Integrated model for supplier selection and performance evaluation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Borges de Araújo, Maria Creuza

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper puts forward a model for selecting suppliers and evaluating the performance of those already working with a company. A simulation was conducted in a food industry. This sector has high significance in the economy of Brazil. The model enables the phases of selecting and evaluating suppliers to be integrated. This is important so that a company can have partnerships with suppliers who are able to meet their needs. Additionally, a group method is used to enable managers who will be affected by this decision to take part in the selection stage. Finally, the classes resulting from the performance evaluation are shown to support the contractor in choosing the most appropriate relationship with its suppliers.

Vis-NIR spectrometric determination of Brix and sucrose in sugar production samples using kernel partial least squares with interval selection based on the successive projections algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

de Almeida, Valber Elias; de Araújo Gomes, Adriano; de Sousa Fernandes, David Douglas; Goicoechea, Héctor Casimiro; Galvão, Roberto Kawakami Harrop; Araújo, Mario Cesar Ugulino

2018-05-01

This paper proposes a new variable selection method for nonlinear multivariate calibration, combining the Successive Projections Algorithm for interval selection (iSPA) with the Kernel Partial Least Squares (Kernel-PLS) modelling technique. The proposed iSPA-Kernel-PLS algorithm is employed in a case study involving a Vis-NIR spectrometric dataset with complex nonlinear features. The analytical problem consists of determining Brix and sucrose content in samples from a sugar production system, on the basis of transflectance spectra. As compared to full-spectrum Kernel-PLS, the iSPA-Kernel-PLS models involve a smaller number of variables and display statistically significant superiority in terms of accuracy and/or bias in the predictions. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The Complete Local Volume Groups Sample - I. Sample selection and X-ray properties of the high-richness subsample

Science.gov (United States)

O'Sullivan, Ewan; Ponman, Trevor J.; Kolokythas, Konstantinos; Raychaudhury, Somak; Babul, Arif; Vrtilek, Jan M.; David, Laurence P.; Giacintucci, Simona; Gitti, Myriam; Haines, Chris P.

2017-12-01

We present the Complete Local-Volume Groups Sample (CLoGS), a statistically complete optically selected sample of 53 groups within 80 Mpc. Our goal is to combine X-ray, radio and optical data to investigate the relationship between member galaxies, their active nuclei and the hot intra-group medium (IGM). We describe sample selection, define a 26-group high-richness subsample of groups containing at least four optically bright (log LB ≥ 10.2 LB⊙) galaxies, and report the results of XMM-Newton and Chandra observations of these systems. We find that 14 of the 26 groups are X-ray bright, possessing a group-scale IGM extending at least 65 kpc and with luminosity >1041 erg s-1, while a further three groups host smaller galaxy-scale gas haloes. The X-ray bright groups have masses in the range M500 ≃ 0.5-5 × 1013 M⊙, based on system temperatures of 0.4-1.4 keV, and X-ray luminosities in the range 2-200 × 1041 erg s-1. We find that ∼53-65 per cent of the X-ray bright groups have cool cores, a somewhat lower fraction than found by previous archival surveys. Approximately 30 per cent of the X-ray bright groups show evidence of recent dynamical interactions (mergers or sloshing), and ∼35 per cent of their dominant early-type galaxies host active galactic nuclei with radio jets. We find no groups with unusually high central entropies, as predicted by some simulations, and confirm that CLoGS is in principle capable of detecting such systems. We identify three previously unrecognized groups, and find that they are either faint (LX, R500 < 1042 erg s-1) with no concentrated cool core, or highly disturbed. This leads us to suggest that ∼20 per cent of X-ray bright groups in the local universe may still be unidentified.

Selected Tether Applications Cost Model

Science.gov (United States)

Keeley, Michael G.

1988-01-01

Diverse cost-estimating techniques and data combined into single program. Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM 1.0) is interactive accounting software tool providing means for combining several independent cost-estimating programs into fully-integrated mathematical model capable of assessing costs, analyzing benefits, providing file-handling utilities, and putting out information in text and graphical forms to screen, printer, or plotter. Program based on Lotus 1-2-3, version 2.0. Developed to provide clear, concise traceability and visibility into methodology and rationale for estimating costs and benefits of operations of Space Station tether deployer system.

Modeling the effect of selection history on pop-out visual search.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuan-Chi Tseng

Full Text Available While attentional effects in visual selection tasks have traditionally been assigned "top-down" or "bottom-up" origins, more recently it has been proposed that there are three major factors affecting visual selection: (1 physical salience, (2 current goals and (3 selection history. Here, we look further into selection history by investigating Priming of Pop-out (POP and the Distractor Preview Effect (DPE, two inter-trial effects that demonstrate the influence of recent history on visual search performance. Using the Ratcliff diffusion model, we model observed saccadic selections from an oddball search experiment that included a mix of both POP and DPE conditions. We find that the Ratcliff diffusion model can effectively model the manner in which selection history affects current attentional control in visual inter-trial effects. The model evidence shows that bias regarding the current trial's most likely target color is the most critical parameter underlying the effect of selection history. Our results are consistent with the view that the 3-item color-oddball task used for POP and DPE experiments is best understood as an attentional decision making task.

Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

2015-01-01

We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

Polymer platforms for selective detection of cocaine in street samples adulterated with levamisole

OpenAIRE

Florea, Anca; Cowen, Todd; Piletsky, Sergey; Wael, De, Karolien

2018-01-01

Abstract: Accurate drug detection is of utmost importance for fighting against drug abuse. With a high number of cutting agents and adulterants being added to cut or mask drugs in street powders the number of false results is increasing. We demonstrate for the first time the usefulness of employing polymers readily synthesized by electrodeposition to selectively detect cocaine in the presence of the commonly used adulterant levamisole. The polymers were selected by computational modelling to ...

Ensembling Variable Selectors by Stability Selection for the Cox Model

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Qing-Yan Yin

2017-01-01

Full Text Available As a pivotal tool to build interpretive models, variable selection plays an increasingly important role in high-dimensional data analysis. In recent years, variable selection ensembles (VSEs have gained much interest due to their many advantages. Stability selection (Meinshausen and Bühlmann, 2010, a VSE technique based on subsampling in combination with a base algorithm like lasso, is an effective method to control false discovery rate (FDR and to improve selection accuracy in linear regression models. By adopting lasso as a base learner, we attempt to extend stability selection to handle variable selection problems in a Cox model. According to our experience, it is crucial to set the regularization region Λ in lasso and the parameter λmin properly so that stability selection can work well. To the best of our knowledge, however, there is no literature addressing this problem in an explicit way. Therefore, we first provide a detailed procedure to specify Λ and λmin. Then, some simulated and real-world data with various censoring rates are used to examine how well stability selection performs. It is also compared with several other variable selection approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that it achieves better or competitive performance in comparison with several other popular techniques.

40 CFR Appendix Xi to Part 86 - Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Light-Duty Vehicles

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Light-Duty Vehicles XI Appendix XI to Part 86 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... Enforcement Auditing of Light-Duty Vehicles 40% AQL Table 1—Sampling Plan Code Letter Annual sales of...

Skewed factor models using selection mechanisms

KAUST Repository

Kim, Hyoung-Moon

2015-12-21

Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-tt, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset.

Skewed factor models using selection mechanisms

KAUST Repository

Kim, Hyoung-Moon; Maadooliat, Mehdi; Arellano-Valle, Reinaldo B.; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

Traditional factor models explicitly or implicitly assume that the factors follow a multivariate normal distribution; that is, only moments up to order two are involved. However, it may happen in real data problems that the first two moments cannot explain the factors. Based on this motivation, here we devise three new skewed factor models, the skew-normal, the skew-tt, and the generalized skew-normal factor models depending on a selection mechanism on the factors. The ECME algorithms are adopted to estimate related parameters for statistical inference. Monte Carlo simulations validate our new models and we demonstrate the need for skewed factor models using the classic open/closed book exam scores dataset.

National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, Daniel R; Salomon, Joshua A; Canning, David; Hammitt, James K; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Bärnighausen, Till

2012-01-01

Objectives Population-based HIV testing surveys have become central to deriving estimates of national HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited participation in these surveys can lead to selection bias. We control for selection bias in national HIV prevalence estimates using a novel approach, which unlike conventional imputation can account for selection on unobserved factors. Methods For 12 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted from 2001 to 2009 (N=138 300), we predict HIV status among those missing a valid HIV test with Heckman-type selection models, which allow for correlation between infection status and participation in survey HIV testing. We compare these estimates with conventional ones and introduce a simulation procedure that incorporates regression model parameter uncertainty into confidence intervals. Results Selection model point estimates of national HIV prevalence were greater than unadjusted estimates for 10 of 12 surveys for men and 11 of 12 surveys for women, and were also greater than the majority of estimates obtained from conventional imputation, with significantly higher HIV prevalence estimates for men in Cote d'Ivoire 2005, Mali 2006 and Zambia 2007. Accounting for selective non-participation yielded 95% confidence intervals around HIV prevalence estimates that are wider than those obtained with conventional imputation by an average factor of 4.5. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that national HIV prevalence estimates for many countries in sub-Saharan African are more uncertain than previously thought, and may be underestimated in several cases, underscoring the need for increasing participation in HIV surveys. Heckman-type selection models should be included in the set of tools used for routine estimation of HIV prevalence. PMID:23172342

Selective Cooperation in Early Childhood - How to Choose Models and Partners.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonas Hermes

Full Text Available Cooperation is essential for human society, and children engage in cooperation from early on. It is unclear, however, how children select their partners for cooperation. We know that children choose selectively whom to learn from (e.g. preferring reliable over unreliable models on a rational basis. The present study investigated whether children (and adults also choose their cooperative partners selectively and what model characteristics they regard as important for cooperative partners and for informants about novel words. Three- and four-year-old children (N = 64 and adults (N = 14 saw contrasting pairs of models differing either in physical strength or in accuracy (in labeling known objects. Participants then performed different tasks (cooperative problem solving and word learning requiring the choice of a partner or informant. Both children and adults chose their cooperative partners selectively. Moreover they showed the same pattern of selective model choice, regarding a wide range of model characteristics as important for cooperation (preferring both the strong and the accurate model for a strength-requiring cooperation tasks, but only prior knowledge as important for word learning (preferring the knowledgeable but not the strong model for word learning tasks. Young children's selective model choice thus reveals an early rational competence: They infer characteristics from past behavior and flexibly consider what characteristics are relevant for certain tasks.

Simulation of selected genealogies.

Science.gov (United States)

Slade, P F

2000-02-01

Algorithms for generating genealogies with selection conditional on the sample configuration of n genes in one-locus, two-allele haploid and diploid models are presented. Enhanced integro-recursions using the ancestral selection graph, introduced by S. M. Krone and C. Neuhauser (1997, Theor. Popul. Biol. 51, 210-237), which is the non-neutral analogue of the coalescent, enables accessible simulation of the embedded genealogy. A Monte Carlo simulation scheme based on that of R. C. Griffiths and S. Tavaré (1996, Math. Comput. Modelling 23, 141-158), is adopted to consider the estimation of ancestral times under selection. Simulations show that selection alters the expected depth of the conditional ancestral trees, depending on a mutation-selection balance. As a consequence, branch lengths are shown to be an ineffective criterion for detecting the presence of selection. Several examples are given which quantify the effects of selection on the conditional expected time to the most recent common ancestor. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

Automatic Samples Selection Using Histogram of Oriented Gradients (HOG Feature Distance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inzar Salfikar

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Finding victims at a disaster site is the primary goal of Search-and-Rescue (SAR operations. Many technologies created from research for searching disaster victims through aerial imaging. but, most of them are difficult to detect victims at tsunami disaster sites with victims and backgrounds which are look similar. This research collects post-tsunami aerial imaging data from the internet to builds dataset and model for detecting tsunami disaster victims. Datasets are built based on distance differences from features every sample using Histogram-of-Oriented-Gradient (HOG method. We use the longest distance to collect samples from photo to generate victim and non-victim samples. We claim steps to collect samples by measuring HOG feature distance from all samples. the longest distance between samples will take as a candidate to build the dataset, then classify victim (positives and non-victim (negatives samples manually. The dataset of tsunami disaster victims was re-analyzed using cross-validation Leave-One-Out (LOO with Support-Vector-Machine (SVM method. The experimental results show the performance of two test photos with 61.70% precision, 77.60% accuracy, 74.36% recall and f-measure 67.44% to distinguish victim (positives and non-victim (negatives.

40 CFR Appendix X to Part 86 - Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Heavy-Duty Engines and Light-Duty Trucks

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Heavy-Duty Engines and Light-Duty Trucks X Appendix X to Part 86 Protection of... Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Heavy-Duty Engines and Light-Duty Trucks Table 1—Sampling...

Relativistic electron influence on sanitary-model microorganisms and antibiotics in model samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antipov, V.S.; Berezhna, I.V.; Kovpik, O.F.; Babych, E.M.; Voliansky, Yu.L.; Sklar, N.I.

2004-01-01

A series of the investigations of the electron beam influence on sanitary-model test cultures and antibiotics in model solutions has been carried out. For each of the test objects, the authors have found the boundary doses of the absorbed radiation. The higher doses cause the sharp increase in the bactericidal influence, which becomes complete. The sanitary-bactericidal indices of the water samples remain sable during 6 days. The samples of antibiotics in various concentrations (from 100 UA) have been irradiated. It is proved that the substratum processing by the beam (in the regimes 30 kGy) causes diminution and complete neutralization of the antibacterial activity in all probes of the samples

Selective whole genome amplification for resequencing target microbial species from complex natural samples.

Science.gov (United States)

Leichty, Aaron R; Brisson, Dustin

2014-10-01

Population genomic analyses have demonstrated power to address major questions in evolutionary and molecular microbiology. Collecting populations of genomes is hindered in many microbial species by the absence of a cost effective and practical method to collect ample quantities of sufficiently pure genomic DNA for next-generation sequencing. Here we present a simple method to amplify genomes of a target microbial species present in a complex, natural sample. The selective whole genome amplification (SWGA) technique amplifies target genomes using nucleotide sequence motifs that are common in the target microbe genome, but rare in the background genomes, to prime the highly processive phi29 polymerase. SWGA thus selectively amplifies the target genome from samples in which it originally represented a minor fraction of the total DNA. The post-SWGA samples are enriched in target genomic DNA, which are ideal for population resequencing. We demonstrate the efficacy of SWGA using both laboratory-prepared mixtures of cultured microbes as well as a natural host-microbe association. Targeted amplification of Borrelia burgdorferi mixed with Escherichia coli at genome ratios of 1:2000 resulted in >10(5)-fold amplification of the target genomes with genomic extracts from Wolbachia pipientis-infected Drosophila melanogaster resulted in up to 70% of high-throughput resequencing reads mapping to the W. pipientis genome. By contrast, 2-9% of sequencing reads were derived from W. pipientis without prior amplification. The SWGA technique results in high sequencing coverage at a fraction of the sequencing effort, thus allowing population genomic studies at affordable costs. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

Concurrent and Longitudinal Associations Among Temperament, Parental Feeding Styles, and Selective Eating in a Preschool Sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Kidwell, Katherine M; Kozikowski, Chelsea; Roth, Taylor; Lundahl, Alyssa; Nelson, Timothy D

2018-06-01

To examine the associations among negative/reactive temperament, feeding styles, and selective eating in a sample of preschoolers because preschool eating behaviors likely have lasting implications for children's health. A community sample of preschoolers aged 3-5 years (M = 4.49 years, 49.5% female, 75.7% European American) in the Midwest of the United States was recruited to participate in the study (N = 297). Parents completed measures of temperament and feeding styles at two time points 6 months apart. A series of regressions indicated that children who had temperaments high in negative affectivity were significantly more likely to experience instrumental and emotional feeding styles. They were also significantly more likely to be selective eaters. These associations were present when examined both concurrently and after 6 months. This study provides a novel investigation of child temperament and eating behaviors, allowing for a better understanding of how negative affectivity is associated with instrumental feeding, emotional feeding, and selective eating. These results inform interventions to improve child health.

Correlations Between Life-Detection Techniques and Implications for Sampling Site Selection in Planetary Analog Missions

Science.gov (United States)

Gentry, Diana M.; Amador, Elena S.; Cable, Morgan L.; Chaudry, Nosheen; Cullen, Thomas; Jacobsen, Malene B.; Murukesan, Gayathri; Schwieterman, Edward W.; Stevens, Adam H.; Stockton, Amanda; Tan, George; Yin, Chang; Cullen, David C.; Geppert, Wolf

2017-10-01

We conducted an analog sampling expedition under simulated mission constraints to areas dominated by basaltic tephra of the Eldfell and Fimmvörðuháls lava fields (Iceland). Sites were selected to be "homogeneous" at a coarse remote sensing resolution (10-100 m) in apparent color, morphology, moisture, and grain size, with best-effort realism in numbers of locations and replicates. Three different biomarker assays (counting of nucleic-acid-stained cells via fluorescent microscopy, a luciferin/luciferase assay for adenosine triphosphate, and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) to detect DNA associated with bacteria, archaea, and fungi) were characterized at four nested spatial scales (1 m, 10 m, 100 m, and >1 km) by using five common metrics for sample site representativeness (sample mean variance, group F tests, pairwise t tests, and the distribution-free rank sum H and u tests). Correlations between all assays were characterized with Spearman's rank test. The bioluminescence assay showed the most variance across the sites, followed by qPCR for bacterial and archaeal DNA; these results could not be considered representative at the finest resolution tested (1 m). Cell concentration and fungal DNA also had significant local variation, but they were homogeneous over scales of >1 km. These results show that the selection of life detection assays and the number, distribution, and location of sampling sites in a low biomass environment with limited a priori characterization can yield both contrasting and complementary results, and that their interdependence must be given due consideration to maximize science return in future biomarker sampling expeditions.

Effects of soil water saturation on sampling equilibrium and kinetics of selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Pil-Gon; Roh, Ji-Yeon; Hong, Yongseok; Kwon, Jung-Hwan

2017-10-01

Passive sampling can be applied for measuring the freely dissolved concentration of hydrophobic organic chemicals (HOCs) in soil pore water. When using passive samplers under field conditions, however, there are factors that might affect passive sampling equilibrium and kinetics, such as soil water saturation. To determine the effects of soil water saturation on passive sampling, the equilibrium and kinetics of passive sampling were evaluated by observing changes in the distribution coefficient between sampler and soil (K sampler/soil ) and the uptake rate constant (k u ) at various soil water saturations. Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) passive samplers were deployed into artificial soils spiked with seven selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). In dry soil (0% water saturation), both K sampler/soil and k u values were much lower than those in wet soils likely due to the contribution of adsorption of PAHs onto soil mineral surfaces and the conformational changes in soil organic matter. For high molecular weight PAHs (chrysene, benzo[a]pyrene, and dibenzo[a,h]anthracene), both K sampler/soil and k u values increased with increasing soil water saturation, whereas they decreased with increasing soil water saturation for low molecular weight PAHs (phenanthrene, anthracene, fluoranthene, and pyrene). Changes in the sorption capacity of soil organic matter with soil water content would be the main cause of the changes in passive sampling equilibrium. Henry's law constant could explain the different behaviors in uptake kinetics of the selected PAHs. The results of this study would be helpful when passive samplers are deployed under various soil water saturations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variable selection for mixture and promotion time cure rate models.

Science.gov (United States)

Masud, Abdullah; Tu, Wanzhu; Yu, Zhangsheng

2016-11-16

Failure-time data with cured patients are common in clinical studies. Data from these studies are typically analyzed with cure rate models. Variable selection methods have not been well developed for cure rate models. In this research, we propose two least absolute shrinkage and selection operators based methods, for variable selection in mixture and promotion time cure models with parametric or nonparametric baseline hazards. We conduct an extensive simulation study to assess the operating characteristics of the proposed methods. We illustrate the use of the methods using data from a study of childhood wheezing. © The Author(s) 2016.

Model structure selection in convolutive mixtures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dyrholm, Mads; Makeig, S.; Hansen, Lars Kai

2006-01-01

The CICAAR algorithm (convolutive independent component analysis with an auto-regressive inverse model) allows separation of white (i.i.d) source signals from convolutive mixtures. We introduce a source color model as a simple extension to the CICAAR which allows for a more parsimonious represent......The CICAAR algorithm (convolutive independent component analysis with an auto-regressive inverse model) allows separation of white (i.i.d) source signals from convolutive mixtures. We introduce a source color model as a simple extension to the CICAAR which allows for a more parsimonious...... representation in many practical mixtures. The new filter-CICAAR allows Bayesian model selection and can help answer questions like: ’Are we actually dealing with a convolutive mixture?’. We try to answer this question for EEG data....

Study on the effects of sample selection on spectral reflectance reconstruction based on the algorithm of compressive sensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Leihong; Liang, Dong

2016-01-01

In order to solve the problem that reconstruction efficiency and precision is not high, in this paper different samples are selected to reconstruct spectral reflectance, and a new kind of spectral reflectance reconstruction method based on the algorithm of compressive sensing is provided. Four different color numbers of matte color cards such as the ColorChecker Color Rendition Chart and Color Checker SG, the copperplate paper spot color card of Panton, and the Munsell colors card are chosen as training samples, the spectral image is reconstructed respectively by the algorithm of compressive sensing and pseudo-inverse and Wiener, and the results are compared. These methods of spectral reconstruction are evaluated by root mean square error and color difference accuracy. The experiments show that the cumulative contribution rate and color difference of the Munsell colors card are better than those of the other three numbers of color cards in the same conditions of reconstruction, and the accuracy of the spectral reconstruction will be affected by the training sample of different numbers of color cards. The key technology of reconstruction means that the uniformity and representation of the training sample selection has important significance upon reconstruction. In this paper, the influence of the sample selection on the spectral image reconstruction is studied. The precision of the spectral reconstruction based on the algorithm of compressive sensing is higher than that of the traditional algorithm of spectral reconstruction. By the MATLAB simulation results, it can be seen that the spectral reconstruction precision and efficiency are affected by the different color numbers of the training sample. (paper)

Concentration of ions in selected bottled water samples sold in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Aris, Ahmad Zaharin; Kam, Ryan Chuan Yang; Lim, Ai Phing; Praveena, Sarva Mangala

2013-03-01

Many consumers around the world, including Malaysians, have turned to bottled water as their main source of drinking water. The aim of this study is to determine the physical and chemical properties of bottled water samples sold in Selangor, Malaysia. A total of 20 bottled water brands consisting of `natural mineral (NM)' and `packaged drinking (PD)' types were randomly collected and analyzed for their physical-chemical characteristics: hydrogen ion concentration (pH), electrical conductivity (EC) and total dissolved solids (TDS), selected major ions: calcium (Ca), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg) and sodium (Na), and minor trace constituents: copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) to ascertain their suitability for human consumption. The results obtained were compared with guideline values recommended by World Health Organization (WHO) and Malaysian Ministry of Health (MMOH), respectively. It was found that all bottled water samples were in accordance with the guidelines set by WHO and MMOH except for one sample (D3) which was below the pH limit of 6.5. Both NM and PD bottled water were dominated by Na + K > Ca > Mg. Low values for EC and TDS in the bottled water samples showed that water was deficient in essential elements, likely an indication that these were removed by water treatment. Minerals like major ions were present in very low concentrations which could pose a risk to individuals who consume this water on a regular basis. Generally, the overall quality of the supplied bottled water was in accordance to standards and guidelines set by WHO and MMOH and safe for consumption.

A quantitative method to detect explosives and selected semivolatiles in soil samples by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clapper-Gowdy, M.; Dermirgian, J.; Robitaille, G.

1995-01-01

This paper describes a novel Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic method that can be used to rapidly screen soil samples from potentially hazardous waste sites. Samples are heated in a thermal desorption unit and the resultant vapors are collected and analyzed in a long-path gas cell mounted in a FTIR. Laboratory analysis of a soil sample by FTIR takes approximately 10 minutes. This method has been developed to identify and quantify microgram concentrations of explosives in soil samples and is directly applicable to the detection of selected volatile organics, semivolatile organics, and pesticides

Expert System Model for Educational Personnel Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Héctor A. Tabares-Ospina

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The staff selection is a difficult task due to the subjectivity that the evaluation means. This process can be complemented using a system to support decision. This paper presents the implementation of an expert system to systematize the selection process of professors. The management of software development is divided into 4 parts: requirements, design, implementation and commissioning. The proposed system models a specific knowledge through relationships between variables evidence and objective.

Diversified models for portfolio selection based on uncertain semivariance

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Lin; Peng, Jin; Zhang, Bo; Rosyida, Isnaini

2017-02-01

Since the financial markets are complex, sometimes the future security returns are represented mainly based on experts' estimations due to lack of historical data. This paper proposes a semivariance method for diversified portfolio selection, in which the security returns are given subjective to experts' estimations and depicted as uncertain variables. In the paper, three properties of the semivariance of uncertain variables are verified. Based on the concept of semivariance of uncertain variables, two types of mean-semivariance diversified models for uncertain portfolio selection are proposed. Since the models are complex, a hybrid intelligent algorithm which is based on 99-method and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models. In this hybrid intelligent algorithm, 99-method is applied to compute the expected value and semivariance of uncertain variables, and genetic algorithm is employed to seek the best allocation plan for portfolio selection. At last, several numerical examples are presented to illustrate the modelling idea and the effectiveness of the algorithm.

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Physical Properties and Purity of a Galaxy Cluster Sample Selected Via the Sunyaev-Zel'Dovich Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Menanteau, Felipe; Gonzalez, Jorge; Juin, Jean-Baptiste; Marriage, Tobias; Reese, Erik D.; Acquaviva, Viviana; Aguirre, Paula; Appel, John Willam; Baker, Andrew J.; Barrientos, L. Felipe;

Behavioral optimization models for multicriteria portfolio selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehlawat Mukesh Kumar

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, behavioral construct of suitability is used to develop a multicriteria decision making framework for portfolio selection. To achieve this purpose, we rely on multiple methodologies. Analytical hierarchy process technique is used to model the suitability considerations with a view to obtaining the suitability performance score in respect of each asset. A fuzzy multiple criteria decision making method is used to obtain the financial quality score of each asset based upon investor's rating on the financial criteria. Two optimization models are developed for optimal asset allocation considering simultaneously financial and suitability criteria. An empirical study is conducted on randomly selected assets from National Stock Exchange, Mumbai, India to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Studying hardness, workability and minimum bending radius in selectively laser-sintered Ti–6Al–4V alloy samples

Science.gov (United States)

Galkina, N. V.; Nosova, Y. A.; Balyakin, A. V.

2018-03-01

This research is relevant as it tries to improve the mechanical and service performance of the Ti–6Al–4V titanium alloy obtained by selective laser sintering. For that purpose, sintered samples were annealed at 750 and 850°C for an hour. Sintered and annealed samples were tested for hardness, workability and microstructure. It was found that incomplete annealing of selectively laser-sintered Ti–6Al–4V samples results in an insignificant reduction in hardness and ductility. Sintered and incompletely annealed samples had a hardness of 32..33 HRC, which is lower than the value of annealed parts specified in standards. Complete annealing at temperature 850°C reduces the hardness to 25 HRC and ductility by 15...20%. Incomplete annealing lowers the ductility factor from 0.08 to 0.06. Complete annealing lowers that value to 0.025. Complete annealing probably results in the embrittlement of sintered samples, perhaps due to their oxidation and hydrogenation in the air. Optical metallography showed lateral fractures in both sintered and annealed samples, which might be the reason why they had lower hardness and ductility.

Stability of selected volatile breath constituents in Tedlar, Kynar and Flexfilm sampling bags

Science.gov (United States)

Mochalski, Paweł; King, Julian; Unterkofler, Karl; Amann, Anton

2016-01-01

The stability of 41 selected breath constituents in three types of polymer sampling bags, Tedlar, Kynar, and Flexfilm, was investigated using solid phase microextraction and gas chromatography mass spectrometry. The tested molecular species belong to different chemical classes (hydrocarbons, ketones, aldehydes, aromatics, sulphurs, esters, terpenes, etc.) and exhibit close-to-breath low ppb levels (3–12 ppb) with the exception of isoprene, acetone and acetonitrile (106 ppb, 760 ppb, 42 ppb respectively). Stability tests comprised the background emission of contaminants, recovery from dry samples, recovery from humid samples (RH 80% at 37 °C), influence of the bag’s filling degree, and reusability. Findings yield evidence of the superiority of Tedlar bags over remaining polymers in terms of background emission, species stability (up to 7 days for dry samples), and reusability. Recoveries of species under study suffered from the presence of high amounts of water (losses up to 10%). However, only heavier volatiles, with molecular masses higher than 90, exhibited more pronounced losses (20–40%). The sample size (the degree of bag filling) was found to be one of the most important factors affecting the sample integrity. To sum up, it is recommended to store breath samples in pre-conditioned Tedlar bags up to 6 hours at the maximum possible filling volume. Among the remaining films, Kynar can be considered as an alternative to Tedlar; however, higher losses of compounds should be expected even within the first hours of storage. Due to the high background emission Flexfilm is not suitable for sampling and storage of samples for analyses aiming at volatiles at a low ppb level. PMID:23323261

Fisher-Wright model with deterministic seed bank and selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Koopmann, Bendix; Müller, Johannes; Tellier, Aurélien; Živković, Daniel

2017-04-01

Seed banks are common characteristics to many plant species, which allow storage of genetic diversity in the soil as dormant seeds for various periods of time. We investigate an above-ground population following a Fisher-Wright model with selection coupled with a deterministic seed bank assuming the length of the seed bank is kept constant and the number of seeds is large. To assess the combined impact of seed banks and selection on genetic diversity, we derive a general diffusion model. The applied techniques outline a path of approximating a stochastic delay differential equation by an appropriately rescaled stochastic differential equation. We compute the equilibrium solution of the site-frequency spectrum and derive the times to fixation of an allele with and without selection. Finally, it is demonstrated that seed banks enhance the effect of selection onto the site-frequency spectrum while slowing down the time until the mutation-selection equilibrium is reached. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making For Determining A Simple Model of Supplier Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Harwati

2017-06-01

Supplier selection is a decision with many criteria. Supplier selection model usually involves more than five main criteria and more than 10 sub-criteria. In fact many model includes more than 20 criteria. Too many criteria involved in supplier selection models sometimes make it difficult to apply in many companies. This research focuses on designing supplier selection that easy and simple to be applied in the company. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to weighting criteria. The analysis results there are four criteria that are easy and simple can be used to select suppliers: Price (weight 0.4) shipment (weight 0.3), quality (weight 0.2) and services (weight 0.1). A real case simulation shows that simple model provides the same decision with a more complex model.

Semi-selective medium for Fusarium graminearum detection in seed samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marivane Segalin

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Fungi of the genus Fusarium cause a variety of difficult to control diseases in different crops, including winter cereals and maize. Among the species of this genus Fusarium graminearum deserves attention. The aim of this work was to develop a semi-selective medium to study this fungus. In several experiments, substrates for fungal growth were tested, including fungicides and antibiotics such as iprodiona, nystatin and triadimenol, and the antibacterial agents streptomycin and neomycin sulfate. Five seed samples of wheat, barley, oat, black beans and soybeans for F. graminearum detection by using the media Nash and Snyder agar (NSA, Segalin & Reis agar (SRA and one-quarter dextrose agar (1/4PDA; potato 50g; dextrose 5g and agar 20g, either unsupplemented or supplemented with various concentrations of the antimicrobial agents cited above. The selected components and concentrations (g.L-1 of the proposed medium, Segalin & Reis agar (SRA-FG, were: iprodiona 0.05; nystatin 0,025; triadimenol 0.015; neomycin sulfate 0.05; and streptomycin sulfate, 0.3 added of ¼ potato sucrose agar. In the isolation from seeds of cited plant species, the sensitivity of this medium was similar to that of NSA but with de advantage of maintaining the colony morphological aspects similar to those observed in potato-dextrose-agar medium.

A BAYESIAN NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE MODEL FOR SELECTING GENES AND GENE SUBNETWORKS.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Yize; Kang, Jian; Yu, Tianwei

2014-06-01

It is very challenging to select informative features from tens of thousands of measured features in high-throughput data analysis. Recently, several parametric/regression models have been developed utilizing the gene network information to select genes or pathways strongly associated with a clinical/biological outcome. Alternatively, in this paper, we propose a nonparametric Bayesian model for gene selection incorporating network information. In addition to identifying genes that have a strong association with a clinical outcome, our model can select genes with particular expressional behavior, in which case the regression models are not directly applicable. We show that our proposed model is equivalent to an infinity mixture model for which we develop a posterior computation algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also propose two fast computing algorithms that approximate the posterior simulation with good accuracy but relatively low computational cost. We illustrate our methods on simulation studies and the analysis of Spellman yeast cell cycle microarray data.

Method for Automatic Selection of Parameters in Normal Tissue Complication Probability Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Christophides, Damianos; Appelt, Ane L; Gusnanto, Arief; Lilley, John; Sebag-Montefiore, David

2018-07-01

To present a fully automatic method to generate multiparameter normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models and compare its results with those of a published model, using the same patient cohort. Data were analyzed from 345 rectal cancer patients treated with external radiation therapy to predict the risk of patients developing grade 1 or ≥2 cystitis. In total, 23 clinical factors were included in the analysis as candidate predictors of cystitis. Principal component analysis was used to decompose the bladder dose-volume histogram into 8 principal components, explaining more than 95% of the variance. The data set of clinical factors and principal components was divided into training (70%) and test (30%) data sets, with the training data set used by the algorithm to compute an NTCP model. The first step of the algorithm was to obtain a bootstrap sample, followed by multicollinearity reduction using the variance inflation factor and genetic algorithm optimization to determine an ordinal logistic regression model that minimizes the Bayesian information criterion. The process was repeated 100 times, and the model with the minimum Bayesian information criterion was recorded on each iteration. The most frequent model was selected as the final "automatically generated model" (AGM). The published model and AGM were fitted on the training data sets, and the risk of cystitis was calculated. The 2 models had no significant differences in predictive performance, both for the training and test data sets (P value > .05) and found similar clinical and dosimetric factors as predictors. Both models exhibited good explanatory performance on the training data set (P values > .44), which was reduced on the test data sets (P values < .05). The predictive value of the AGM is equivalent to that of the expert-derived published model. It demonstrates potential in saving time, tackling problems with a large number of parameters, and standardizing variable selection in NTCP

Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

2012-01-01

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

Biological sample collector

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Gloria A [French Camp, CA

2010-09-07

A biological sample collector is adapted to a collect several biological samples in a plurality of filter wells. A biological sample collector may comprise a manifold plate for mounting a filter plate thereon, the filter plate having a plurality of filter wells therein; a hollow slider for engaging and positioning a tube that slides therethrough; and a slide case within which the hollow slider travels to allow the tube to be aligned with a selected filter well of the plurality of filter wells, wherein when the tube is aligned with the selected filter well, the tube is pushed through the hollow slider and into the selected filter well to sealingly engage the selected filter well and to allow the tube to deposit a biological sample onto a filter in the bottom of the selected filter well. The biological sample collector may be portable.

A model selection support system for numerical simulations of nuclear thermal-hydraulics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gofuku, Akio; Shimizu, Kenji; Sugano, Keiji; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Wakabayashi, Jiro

1990-01-01

In order to execute efficiently a dynamic simulation of a large-scaled engineering system such as a nuclear power plant, it is necessary to develop intelligent simulation support system for all phases of the simulation. This study is concerned with the intelligent support for the program development phase and is engaged in the adequate model selection support method by applying AI (Artificial Intelligence) techniques to execute a simulation consistent with its purpose and conditions. A proto-type expert system to support the model selection for numerical simulations of nuclear thermal-hydraulics in the case of cold leg small break loss-of-coolant accident of PWR plant is now under development on a personal computer. The steps to support the selection of both fluid model and constitutive equations for the drift flux model have been developed. Several cases of model selection were carried out and reasonable model selection results were obtained. (author)

CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS.

Science.gov (United States)

Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro

2013-04-01

The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling , or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM's expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses.

The lack of selection bias in a snowball sampled case-control study on drug abuse.

Science.gov (United States)

Lopes, C S; Rodrigues, L C; Sichieri, R

1996-12-01

Friend controls in matched case-control studies can be a potential source of bias based on the assumption that friends are more likely to share exposure factors. This study evaluates the role of selection bias in a case-control study that used the snowball sampling method based on friendship for the selection of cases and controls. The cases selected fro the study were drug abusers located in the community. Exposure was defined by the presence of at least one psychiatric diagnosis. Psychiatric and drug abuse/dependence diagnoses were made according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-III-R) criteria. Cases and controls were matched on sex, age and friendship. The measurement of selection bias was made through the comparison of the proportion of exposed controls selected by exposed cases (p1) with the proportion of exposed controls selected by unexposed cases (p2). If p1 = p2 then, selection bias should not occur. The observed distribution of the 185 matched pairs having at least one psychiatric disorder showed a p1 value of 0.52 and a p2 value of 0.51, indicating no selection bias in this study. Our findings support the idea that the use of friend controls can produce a valid basis for a case-control study.

Heterogeneous Causal Effects and Sample Selection Bias

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Breen, Richard; Choi, Seongsoo; Holm, Anders

2015-01-01

The role of education in the process of socioeconomic attainment is a topic of long standing interest to sociologists and economists. Recently there has been growing interest not only in estimating the average causal effect of education on outcomes such as earnings, but also in estimating how...... causal effects might vary over individuals or groups. In this paper we point out one of the under-appreciated hazards of seeking to estimate heterogeneous causal effects: conventional selection bias (that is, selection on baseline differences) can easily be mistaken for heterogeneity of causal effects....... This might lead us to find heterogeneous effects when the true effect is homogenous, or to wrongly estimate not only the magnitude but also the sign of heterogeneous effects. We apply a test for the robustness of heterogeneous causal effects in the face of varying degrees and patterns of selection bias...

40 CFR Appendix A to Subpart F of... - Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Small Nonroad Engines

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Enforcement Auditing of Small Nonroad Engines A Appendix A to Subpart F of Part 90 Protection of Environment...-IGNITION ENGINES AT OR BELOW 19 KILOWATTS Selective Enforcement Auditing Pt. 90, Subpt. F, App. A Appendix A to Subpart F of Part 90—Sampling Plans for Selective Enforcement Auditing of Small Nonroad Engines...

Multivariate modeling of complications with data driven variable selection: Guarding against overfitting and effects of data set size

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaaf, Arjen van der; Xu Chengjian; Luijk, Peter van; Veld, Aart A. van’t; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis

2012-01-01

Purpose: Multivariate modeling of complications after radiotherapy is frequently used in conjunction with data driven variable selection. This study quantifies the risk of overfitting in a data driven modeling method using bootstrapping for data with typical clinical characteristics, and estimates the minimum amount of data needed to obtain models with relatively high predictive power. Materials and methods: To facilitate repeated modeling and cross-validation with independent datasets for the assessment of true predictive power, a method was developed to generate simulated data with statistical properties similar to real clinical data sets. Characteristics of three clinical data sets from radiotherapy treatment of head and neck cancer patients were used to simulate data with set sizes between 50 and 1000 patients. A logistic regression method using bootstrapping and forward variable selection was used for complication modeling, resulting for each simulated data set in a selected number of variables and an estimated predictive power. The true optimal number of variables and true predictive power were calculated using cross-validation with very large independent data sets. Results: For all simulated data set sizes the number of variables selected by the bootstrapping method was on average close to the true optimal number of variables, but showed considerable spread. Bootstrapping is more accurate in selecting the optimal number of variables than the AIC and BIC alternatives, but this did not translate into a significant difference of the true predictive power. The true predictive power asymptotically converged toward a maximum predictive power for large data sets, and the estimated predictive power converged toward the true predictive power. More than half of the potential predictive power is gained after approximately 200 samples. Our simulations demonstrated severe overfitting (a predicative power lower than that of predicting 50% probability) in a number of small

Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jason G Bragg

Full Text Available Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying

Modeling selective pressures on phytoplankton in the global ocean.

Science.gov (United States)

Bragg, Jason G; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Jahn, Oliver; Follows, Michael J; Chisholm, Sallie W

2010-03-10

Our view of marine microbes is transforming, as culture-independent methods facilitate rapid characterization of microbial diversity. It is difficult to assimilate this information into our understanding of marine microbe ecology and evolution, because their distributions, traits, and genomes are shaped by forces that are complex and dynamic. Here we incorporate diverse forces--physical, biogeochemical, ecological, and mutational--into a global ocean model to study selective pressures on a simple trait in a widely distributed lineage of picophytoplankton: the nitrogen use abilities of Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus cyanobacteria. Some Prochlorococcus ecotypes have lost the ability to use nitrate, whereas their close relatives, marine Synechococcus, typically retain it. We impose mutations for the loss of nitrogen use abilities in modeled picophytoplankton, and ask: in which parts of the ocean are mutants most disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate, and in which parts are they least disadvantaged? Our model predicts that this selective disadvantage is smallest for picophytoplankton that live in tropical regions where Prochlorococcus are abundant in the real ocean. Conversely, the selective disadvantage of losing the ability to use nitrate is larger for modeled picophytoplankton that live at higher latitudes, where Synechococcus are abundant. In regions where we expect Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus populations to cycle seasonally in the real ocean, we find that model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Prochlorococcus are less disadvantaged by losing the ability to use nitrate than model ecotypes with seasonal population dynamics similar to Synechococcus. The model predictions for the selective advantage associated with nitrate use are broadly consistent with the distribution of this ability among marine picocyanobacteria, and at finer scales, can provide insights into interactions between temporally varying ocean processes and

Linear models for airborne-laser-scanning-based operational forest inventory with small field sample size and highly correlated LiDAR data

Science.gov (United States)

Junttila, Virpi; Kauranne, Tuomo; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Modern operational forest inventory often uses remotely sensed data that cover the whole inventory area to produce spatially explicit estimates of forest properties through statistical models. The data obtained by airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) correlate well with many forest inventory variables, such as the tree height, the timber volume, and the biomass. To construct an accurate model over thousands of hectares, LiDAR data must be supplemented with several hundred field sample measurements of forest inventory variables. This can be costly and time consuming. Different LiDAR-data-based and spatial-data-based sampling designs can reduce the number of field sample plots needed. However, problems arising from the features of the LiDAR data, such as a large number of predictors compared with the sample size (overfitting) or a strong correlation among predictors (multicollinearity), may decrease the accuracy and precision of the estimates and predictions. To overcome these problems, a Bayesian linear model with the singular value decomposition of predictors, combined with regularization, is proposed. The model performance in predicting different forest inventory variables is verified in ten inventory areas from two continents, where the number of field sample plots is reduced using different sampling designs. The results show that, with an appropriate field plot selection strategy and the proposed linear model, the total relative error of the predicted forest inventory variables is only 5%–15% larger using 50 field sample plots than the error of a linear model estimated with several hundred field sample plots when we sum up the error due to both the model noise variance and the model’s lack of fit.

The Naïve Overfitting Index Selection (NOIS): A new method to optimize model complexity for hyperspectral data

Science.gov (United States)

Rocha, Alby D.; Groen, Thomas A.; Skidmore, Andrew K.; Darvishzadeh, Roshanak; Willemen, Louise

2017-11-01

The growing number of narrow spectral bands in hyperspectral remote sensing improves the capacity to describe and predict biological processes in ecosystems. But it also poses a challenge to fit empirical models based on such high dimensional data, which often contain correlated and noisy predictors. As sample sizes, to train and validate empirical models, seem not to be increasing at the same rate, overfitting has become a serious concern. Overly complex models lead to overfitting by capturing more than the underlying relationship, and also through fitting random noise in the data. Many regression techniques claim to overcome these problems by using different strategies to constrain complexity, such as limiting the number of terms in the model, by creating latent variables or by shrinking parameter coefficients. This paper is proposing a new method, named Naïve Overfitting Index Selection (NOIS), which makes use of artificially generated spectra, to quantify the relative model overfitting and to select an optimal model complexity supported by the data. The robustness of this new method is assessed by comparing it to a traditional model selection based on cross-validation. The optimal model complexity is determined for seven different regression techniques, such as partial least squares regression, support vector machine, artificial neural network and tree-based regressions using five hyperspectral datasets. The NOIS method selects less complex models, which present accuracies similar to the cross-validation method. The NOIS method reduces the chance of overfitting, thereby avoiding models that present accurate predictions that are only valid for the data used, and too complex to make inferences about the underlying process.

Modeling Directional Selectivity Using Self-Organizing Delay-Aadaptation Maps

OpenAIRE

Tversky, Mr. Tal; Miikkulainen, Dr. Risto

2002-01-01

Using a delay adaptation learning rule, we model the activity-dependent development of directionally selective cells in the primary visual cortex. Based on input stimuli, a learning rule shifts delays to create synchronous arrival of spikes at cortical cells. As a result, delays become tuned creating a smooth cortical map of direction selectivity. This result demonstrates how delay adaption can serve as a powerful abstraction for modeling temporal learning in the brain.

An Optimal Sample Data Usage Strategy to Minimize Overfitting and Underfitting Effects in Regression Tree Models Based on Remotely-Sensed Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingxin Gu

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Regression tree models have been widely used for remote sensing-based ecosystem mapping. Improper use of the sample data (model training and testing data may cause overfitting and underfitting effects in the model. The goal of this study is to develop an optimal sampling data usage strategy for any dataset and identify an appropriate number of rules in the regression tree model that will improve its accuracy and robustness. Landsat 8 data and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-scaled Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI were used to develop regression tree models. A Python procedure was designed to generate random replications of model parameter options across a range of model development data sizes and rule number constraints. The mean absolute difference (MAD between the predicted and actual NDVI (scaled NDVI, value from 0–200 and its variability across the different randomized replications were calculated to assess the accuracy and stability of the models. In our case study, a six-rule regression tree model developed from 80% of the sample data had the lowest MAD (MADtraining = 2.5 and MADtesting = 2.4, which was suggested as the optimal model. This study demonstrates how the training data and rule number selections impact model accuracy and provides important guidance for future remote-sensing-based ecosystem modeling.

Uniform design based SVM model selection for face recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Weihong; Liu, Lijuan; Gong, Weiguo

2010-02-01

Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be a powerful tool for face recognition. The generalization capacity of SVM depends on the model with optimal hyperparameters. The computational cost of SVM model selection results in application difficulty in face recognition. In order to overcome the shortcoming, we utilize the advantage of uniform design--space filling designs and uniformly scattering theory to seek for optimal SVM hyperparameters. Then we propose a face recognition scheme based on SVM with optimal model which obtained by replacing the grid and gradient-based method with uniform design. The experimental results on Yale and PIE face databases show that the proposed method significantly improves the efficiency of SVM model selection.

Selecting an optimal mixed products using grey relationship model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farshad Faezy Razi

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an integrated supplier selection and inventory management using grey relationship model (GRM as well as multi-objective decision making process. The proposed model of this paper first ranks different suppliers based on GRM technique and then determines the optimum level of inventory by considering different objectives. To show the implementation of the proposed model, we use some benchmark data presented by Talluri and Baker [Talluri, S., & Baker, R. C. (2002. A multi-phase mathematical programming approach for effective supply chain design. European Journal of Operational Research, 141(3, 544-558.]. The preliminary results indicate that the proposed model of this paper is capable of handling different criteria for supplier selection.

Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C

2016-11-01

This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory

ERP Software Selection Model using Analytic Network Process

OpenAIRE

Lesmana , Andre Surya; Astanti, Ririn Diar; Ai, The Jin

2014-01-01

During the implementation of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) in any company, one of the most important issues is the selection of ERP software that can satisfy the needs and objectives of the company. This issue is crucial since it may affect the duration of ERP implementation and the costs incurred for the ERP implementation. This research tries to construct a model of the selection of ERP software that are beneficial to the company in order to carry out the selection of the right ERP sof...

Imaging a Large Sample with Selective Plane Illumination Microscopy Based on Multiple Fluorescent Microsphere Tracking

Science.gov (United States)

Ryu, Inkeon; Kim, Daekeun

2018-04-01

A typical selective plane illumination microscopy (SPIM) image size is basically limited by the field of view, which is a characteristic of the objective lens. If an image larger than the imaging area of the sample is to be obtained, image stitching, which combines step-scanned images into a single panoramic image, is required. However, accurately registering the step-scanned images is very difficult because the SPIM system uses a customized sample mount where uncertainties for the translational and the rotational motions exist. In this paper, an image registration technique based on multiple fluorescent microsphere tracking is proposed in the view of quantifying the constellations and measuring the distances between at least two fluorescent microspheres embedded in the sample. Image stitching results are demonstrated for optically cleared large tissue with various staining methods. Compensation for the effect of the sample rotation that occurs during the translational motion in the sample mount is also discussed.

Instance selection in digital soil mapping: a study case in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elvio Giasson

2015-09-01

Full Text Available A critical issue in digital soil mapping (DSM is the selection of data sampling method for model training. One emerging approach applies instance selection to reduce the size of the dataset by drawing only relevant samples in order to obtain a representative subset that is still large enough to preserve relevant information, but small enough to be easily handled by learning algorithms. Although there are suggestions to distribute data sampling as a function of the soil map unit (MU boundaries location, there are still contradictions among research recommendations for locating samples either closer or more distant from soil MU boundaries. A study was conducted to evaluate instance selection methods based on spatially-explicit data collection using location in relation to soil MU boundaries as the main criterion. Decision tree analysis was performed for modeling digital soil class mapping using two different sampling schemes: a selecting sampling points located outside buffers near soil MU boundaries, and b selecting sampling points located within buffers near soil MU boundaries. Data was prepared for generating classification trees to include only data points located within or outside buffers with widths of 60, 120, 240, 360, 480, and 600m near MU boundaries. Instance selection methods using both spatial selection of methods was effective for reduced size of the dataset used for calibrating classification tree models, but failed to provide advantages to digital soil mapping because of potential reduction in the accuracy of classification tree models.

Consistency in Estimation and Model Selection of Dynamic Panel Data Models with Fixed Effects

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Guangjie Li

2015-07-01

Full Text Available We examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and model selection for autoregressive panel data models with fixed effects. We find that the transformation of fixed effects proposed by Lancaster (2002 does not necessarily lead to consistent estimation of common parameters when some true exogenous regressors are excluded. We propose a data dependent way to specify the prior of the autoregressive coefficient and argue for comparing different model specifications before parameter estimation. Model selection properties of Bayes factors and Bayesian information criterion (BIC are investigated. When model uncertainty is substantial, we recommend the use of Bayesian Model Averaging to obtain point estimators with lower root mean squared errors (RMSE. We also study the implications of different levels of inclusion probabilities by simulations.

Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Fouad, G.

2017-12-01

Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high

Hydraulic head interpolation using ANFIS—model selection and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kurtulus, Bedri; Flipo, Nicolas

2012-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the efficiency of ANFIS (adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system) for interpolating hydraulic head in a 40-km 2 agricultural watershed of the Seine basin (France). Inputs of ANFIS are Cartesian coordinates and the elevation of the ground. Hydraulic head was measured at 73 locations during a snapshot campaign on September 2009, which characterizes low-water-flow regime in the aquifer unit. The dataset was then split into three subsets using a square-based selection method: a calibration one (55%), a training one (27%), and a test one (18%). First, a method is proposed to select the best ANFIS model, which corresponds to a sensitivity analysis of ANFIS to the type and number of membership functions (MF). Triangular, Gaussian, general bell, and spline-based MF are used with 2, 3, 4, and 5 MF per input node. Performance criteria on the test subset are used to select the 5 best ANFIS models among 16. Then each is used to interpolate the hydraulic head distribution on a (50×50)-m grid, which is compared to the soil elevation. The cells where the hydraulic head is higher than the soil elevation are counted as "error cells." The ANFIS model that exhibits the less "error cells" is selected as the best ANFIS model. The best model selection reveals that ANFIS models are very sensitive to the type and number of MF. Finally, a sensibility analysis of the best ANFIS model with four triangular MF is performed on the interpolation grid, which shows that ANFIS remains stable to error propagation with a higher sensitivity to soil elevation.

Thermodynamic and structural models compared with the initial dissolution rates of SON glass samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tovena, I.; Advocat, T.; Ghaleb, D.; Vernaz, E.

1993-01-01

The experimentally determined initial dissolution rate R 0 of nuclear glass was correlated with thermodynamic parameters and structural parameters. The initial corrosion rates of six ''R7T7'' glass samples measured at 100 deg C in a Soxhlet device were correlated with the glass free hydration energy and the glass formation enthalpy. These correlations were then tested with a group of 26 SON glasses selected for their wide diversity of compositions. The thermodynamic models provided a satisfactory approximation of the initial dissolution rate determined under Soxhlet conditions for SON glass samples that include up to 15 wt% of boron and some alumina. Conversely, these models are inaccurate if the boron concentration exceeds 15 wt% and the glass contains no alumina. Possible correlations between R 0 and structural parameters, such as the boron coordination number and the number of nonbridging oxygen atoms, were also investigated. The authors show that R 0 varies inversely with the number of 4-coordinate boron atoms; conversely, the results do not substantiate published reports of a correlation between R 0 and the number of nonbridging oxygen atoms. (authors). 13 refs., 2 figs., 4 tabs

A Hybrid Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Supplier Selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chung-Min Wu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The sustainable supplier selection would be the vital part in the management of a sustainable supply chain. In this study, a hybrid multiple criteria decision making (MCDM model is applied to select optimal supplier. The fuzzy Delphi method, which can lead to better criteria selection, is used to modify criteria. Considering the interdependence among the selection criteria, analytic network process (ANP is then used to obtain their weights. To avoid calculation and additional pairwise comparisons of ANP, a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS is used to rank the alternatives. The use of a combination of the fuzzy Delphi method, ANP, and TOPSIS, proposing an MCDM model for supplier selection, and applying these to a real case are the unique features of this study.

Modeling of Clostridium tyrobutyricum for Butyric Acid Selectivity in Continuous Fermentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianjun Du

2014-04-01

Full Text Available A mathematical model was developed to describe batch and continuous fermentation of glucose to organic acids with Clostridium tyrobutyricum. A modified Monod equation was used to describe cell growth, and a Luedeking-Piret equation was used to describe the production of butyric and acetic acids. Using the batch fermentation equations, models predicting butyric acid selectivity for continuous fermentation were also developed. The model showed that butyric acid production was a strong function of cell mass, while acetic acid production was a function of cell growth rate. Further, it was found that at high acetic acid concentrations, acetic acid was metabolized to butyric acid and that this conversion could be modeled. In batch fermentation, high butyric acid selectivity occurred at high initial cell or glucose concentrations. In continuous fermentation, decreased dilution rate improved selectivity; at a dilution rate of 0.028 h−1, the selectivity reached 95.8%. The model and experimental data showed that at total cell recycle, the butyric acid selectivity could reach 97.3%. This model could be used to optimize butyric acid production using C. tyrobutyricum in a continuous fermentation scheme. This is the first study that mathematically describes batch, steady state, and dynamic behavior of C. tyrobutyricum for butyric acid production.

Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.

Science.gov (United States)

Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon

2014-03-29

We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.

On Angular Sampling Methods for 3-D Spatial Channel Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fan, Wei; Jämsä, Tommi; Nielsen, Jesper Ødum

2015-01-01

This paper discusses generating three dimensional (3D) spatial channel models with emphasis on the angular sampling methods. Three angular sampling methods, i.e. modified uniform power sampling, modified uniform angular sampling, and random pairing methods are proposed and investigated in detail....... The random pairing method, which uses only twenty sinusoids in the ray-based model for generating the channels, presents good results if the spatial channel cluster is with a small elevation angle spread. For spatial clusters with large elevation angle spreads, however, the random pairing method would fail...... and the other two methods should be considered....

Automating an integrated spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection

Science.gov (United States)

Abujayyab, Sohaib K. M.; Ahamad, Mohd Sanusi S.; Yahya, Ahmad Shukri; Ahmad, Siti Zubaidah; Aziz, Hamidi Abdul

2017-10-01

An integrated programming environment represents a robust approach to building a valid model for landfill site selection. One of the main challenges in the integrated model is the complicated processing and modelling due to the programming stages and several limitations. An automation process helps avoid the limitations and improve the interoperability between integrated programming environments. This work targets the automation of a spatial data-mining model for landfill site selection by integrating between spatial programming environment (Python-ArcGIS) and non-spatial environment (MATLAB). The model was constructed using neural networks and is divided into nine stages distributed between Matlab and Python-ArcGIS. A case study was taken from the north part of Peninsular Malaysia. 22 criteria were selected to utilise as input data and to build the training and testing datasets. The outcomes show a high-performance accuracy percentage of 98.2% in the testing dataset using 10-fold cross validation. The automated spatial data mining model provides a solid platform for decision makers to performing landfill site selection and planning operations on a regional scale.

Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

Preparation and evaluation of a novel molecularly imprinted polymer coating for selective extraction of indomethacin from biological samples by electrochemically controlled in-tube solid phase microextraction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asiabi, Hamid [Department of Chemistry, Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14115-175, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Yamini, Yadollah, E-mail: yyamini@modares.ac.ir [Department of Chemistry, Tarbiat Modares University, P.O. Box 14115-175, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Seidi, Shahram; Ghahramanifard, Fazel [Department of Analytical Chemistry, Faculty of Chemistry, K.N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2016-03-24

In the present work, an automated on-line electrochemically controlled in-tube solid-phase microextraction (EC-in-tube SPME) coupled with HPLC-UV was developed for the selective extraction and preconcentration of indomethacin as a model analyte in biological samples. Applying an electrical potential can improve the extraction efficiency and provide more convenient manipulation of different properties of the extraction system including selectivity, clean-up, rate, and efficiency. For more enhancement of the selectivity and applicability of this method, a novel molecularly imprinted polymer coated tube was prepared and applied for extraction of indomethacin. For this purpose, nanostructured copolymer coating consisting of polypyrrole doped with ethylene glycol dimethacrylate was prepared on the inner surface of a stainless-steel tube by electrochemical synthesis. The characteristics and application of the tubes were investigated. Electron microscopy provided a cross linked porous surface and the average thickness of the MIP coating was 45 μm. Compared with the non-imprinted polymer coated tubes, the special selectivity for indomethacin was discovered with the molecularly imprinted coated tube. Moreover, stable and reproducible responses were obtained without being considerably influenced by interferences commonly existing in biological samples. Under the optimal conditions, the limits of detection were in the range of 0.07–2.0 μg L{sup −1} in different matrices. This method showed good linearity for indomethacin in the range of 0.1–200 μg L{sup −1}, with coefficients of determination better than 0.996. The inter- and intra-assay precisions (RSD%, n = 3) were respectively in the range of 3.5–8.4% and 2.3–7.6% at three concentration levels of 7, 70 and 150 μg L{sup −1}. The results showed that the proposed method can be successfully applied for selective analysis of indomethacin in biological samples. - Graphical abstract: An automated on

Multilevel selection in a resource-based model

Science.gov (United States)

Ferreira, Fernando Fagundes; Campos, Paulo R. A.

2013-07-01

In the present work we investigate the emergence of cooperation in a multilevel selection model that assumes limiting resources. Following the work by R. J. Requejo and J. Camacho [Phys. Rev. Lett.0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.108.038701 108, 038701 (2012)], the interaction among individuals is initially ruled by a prisoner's dilemma (PD) game. The payoff matrix may change, influenced by the resource availability, and hence may also evolve to a non-PD game. Furthermore, one assumes that the population is divided into groups, whose local dynamics is driven by the payoff matrix, whereas an intergroup competition results from the nonuniformity of the growth rate of groups. We study the probability that a single cooperator can invade and establish in a population initially dominated by defectors. Cooperation is strongly favored when group sizes are small. We observe the existence of a critical group size beyond which cooperation becomes counterselected. Although the critical size depends on the parameters of the model, it is seen that a saturation value for the critical group size is achieved. The results conform to the thought that the evolutionary history of life repeatedly involved transitions from smaller selective units to larger selective units.

Composition of Trace Metals in Dust Samples Collected from Selected High Schools in Pretoria, South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. O. Olowoyo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Potential health risks associated with trace metal pollution have necessitated the importance of monitoring their levels in the environment. The present study investigated the concentrations and compositions of trace metals in dust samples collected from classrooms and playing ground from the selected high schools In Pretoria. Schools were selected from Pretoria based on factors such as proximity to high traffic ways, industrial areas, and residential areas. Thirty-two dust samples were collected from inside and outside the classrooms, where learners often stay during recess period. The dust samples were analysed for trace metal concentrations using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS. The composition of the elements showed that the concentrations of Zn were more than all other elements except from one of the schools. There were significant differences in the concentrations of trace metals from the schools (p<0.05. Regular cleaning, proximity to busy road, and well maintained gardens seem to have positive effects on the concentrations of trace metals recorded from the classrooms dust. The result further revealed a positive correlation for elements such as Pb, Cu, Zn, Mn, and Sb, indicating that the dust might have a common source.

A spatio-temporal nonparametric Bayesian variable selection model of fMRI data for clustering correlated time courses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Versace, Francesco; Vannucci, Marina

2014-07-15

In this paper we present a novel wavelet-based Bayesian nonparametric regression model for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Our goal is to provide a joint analytical framework that allows to detect regions of the brain which exhibit neuronal activity in response to a stimulus and, simultaneously, infer the association, or clustering, of spatially remote voxels that exhibit fMRI time series with similar characteristics. We start by modeling the data with a hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a voxel-dependent shape parameter. We detect regions of the brain activated in response to a given stimulus by using mixture priors with a spike at zero on the coefficients of the regression model. We account for the complex spatial correlation structure of the brain by using a Markov random field (MRF) prior on the parameters guiding the selection of the activated voxels, therefore capturing correlation among nearby voxels. In order to infer association of the voxel time courses, we assume correlated errors, in particular long memory, and exploit the whitening properties of discrete wavelet transforms. Furthermore, we achieve clustering of the voxels by imposing a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the parameters of the long memory process. For inference, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques that combine Metropolis-Hastings schemes employed in Bayesian variable selection with sampling algorithms for nonparametric DP models. We explore the performance of the proposed model on simulated data, with both block- and event-related design, and on real fMRI data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Synthesis and characterization of novel ion-imprinted guanyl-modified cellulose for selective extraction of copper ions from geological and municipality sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenawy, I M; Ismail, M A; Hafez, M A H; Hashem, M A

2018-04-21

The new ion-imprinted guanyl-modified cellulose (II.Gu-MC) was prepared for the separation and determination of Cu (II) ions in different real samples. Several techniques such as Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR), scanning electron microscope (SEM), thermal analysis, potentiograph and elemental analysis have been utilized for the characterization of II.Gu-MC. The adsorption behavior of the ion imprinted polymer (II.Gu-MC) was evaluated and compared to the non ion-imprinted polymer (NII.Gu-MC) at the optimum conditions. The selectivity and the adsorption capacity were greatly enhanced by using the ion-imprinted polymer, indicating its validation for the separation and determination of Cu 2+ ions in different matrices. The adsorption capacity by chelating fibers II.Gu-MC & NII.Gu-MC agreed with the second-order model, and the sorption-isotherm experiments revealed best agreement with Langmuir model. The adsorption capacity of II.Gu-MC and NII.Gu-MC were 115 and 55 mg·g -1 , respectively. The II.Gu-MC was successfully employed for the selective separation and determination of Cu(II) ions with high accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of Model Selection on Computed Water Balance Components

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jhorar, R.K.; Smit, A.A.M.F.R.; Roest, C.W.J.

2009-01-01

Soil water flow modelling approaches as used in four selected on-farm water management models, namely CROPWAT. FAIDS, CERES and SWAP, are compared through numerical experiments. The soil water simulation approaches used in the first three models are reformulated to incorporate ail evapotranspiration

A novel knot selection method for the error-bounded B-spline curve fitting of sampling points in the measuring process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, Fusheng; Zhao, Ji; Ji, Shijun; Zhang, Bing; Fan, Cheng

2017-01-01

The B-spline curve has been widely used in the reconstruction of measurement data. The error-bounded sampling points reconstruction can be achieved by the knot addition method (KAM) based B-spline curve fitting. In KAM, the selection pattern of initial knot vector has been associated with the ultimate necessary number of knots. This paper provides a novel initial knots selection method to condense the knot vector required for the error-bounded B-spline curve fitting. The initial knots are determined by the distribution of features which include the chord length (arc length) and bending degree (curvature) contained in the discrete sampling points. Firstly, the sampling points are fitted into an approximate B-spline curve Gs with intensively uniform knot vector to substitute the description of the feature of the sampling points. The feature integral of Gs is built as a monotone increasing function in an analytic form. Then, the initial knots are selected according to the constant increment of the feature integral. After that, an iterative knot insertion (IKI) process starting from the initial knots is introduced to improve the fitting precision, and the ultimate knot vector for the error-bounded B-spline curve fitting is achieved. Lastly, two simulations and the measurement experiment are provided, and the results indicate that the proposed knot selection method can reduce the number of ultimate knots available. (paper)

The Impact of Varied Discrimination Parameters on Mixed-Format Item Response Theory Model Selection

Science.gov (United States)

Whittaker, Tiffany A.; Chang, Wanchen; Dodd, Barbara G.

2013-01-01

Whittaker, Chang, and Dodd compared the performance of model selection criteria when selecting among mixed-format IRT models and found that the criteria did not perform adequately when selecting the more parameterized models. It was suggested by M. S. Johnson that the problems when selecting the more parameterized models may be because of the low…

Determination of specific activity of americium and plutonium in selected environmental samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trebunova, T.

1999-01-01

The aim of this work was development of method for determination of americium and plutonium in environmental samples. Developed method was evaluated on soil samples and after they was applied on selected samples of fishes (smoked mackerel, herring and fillet from Alaska hake). The method for separation of americium is based on liquid separation with Aliquate-336, precipitation with oxalic acid and using of chromatographic material TRU-Spec TM .The intervals of radiochemical yields were from 13.0% to 80.9% for plutonium-236 and from 10.5% to 100% for americium-241. Determined specific activities of plutonium-239,240 were from (2.3 ± 1.4) mBq/kg to (82 ± 29) mBq/kg, the specific activities of plutonium-238 were from (14.2 ± 3.7) mBq/kg to (708 ± 86) mBq/kg. The specific activities of americium-241 were from (1.4 ± 0.9) mBq/kg to (3360 ± 210) mBq/kg. The fishes from Baltic Sea as well as from North Sea show highest specific activities then fresh-water fishes from Slovakia. Therefore the monitoring of alpha radionuclides in foods imported from territories with nuclear testing is recommended

SELECTING QUASARS BY THEIR INTRINSIC VARIABILITY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmidt, Kasper B.; Rix, Hans-Walter; Jester, Sebastian; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Marshall, Philip J.; Dobler, Gregory

2010-01-01

We present a new and simple technique for selecting extensive, complete, and pure quasar samples, based on their intrinsic variability. We parameterize the single-band variability by a power-law model for the light-curve structure function, with amplitude A and power-law index γ. We show that quasars can be efficiently separated from other non-variable and variable sources by the location of the individual sources in the A-γ plane. We use ∼60 epochs of imaging data, taken over ∼5 years, from the SDSS stripe 82 (S82) survey, where extensive spectroscopy provides a reference sample of quasars, to demonstrate the power of variability as a quasar classifier in multi-epoch surveys. For UV-excess selected objects, variability performs just as well as the standard SDSS color selection, identifying quasars with a completeness of 90% and a purity of 95%. In the redshift range 2.5 < z < 3, where color selection is known to be problematic, variability can select quasars with a completeness of 90% and a purity of 96%. This is a factor of 5-10 times more pure than existing color selection of quasars in this redshift range. Selecting objects from a broad griz color box without u-band information, variability selection in S82 can afford completeness and purity of 92%, despite a factor of 30 more contaminants than quasars in the color-selected feeder sample. This confirms that the fraction of quasars hidden in the 'stellar locus' of color space is small. To test variability selection in the context of Pan-STARRS 1 (PS1) we created mock PS1 data by down-sampling the S82 data to just six epochs over 3 years. Even with this much sparser time sampling, variability is an encouragingly efficient classifier. For instance, a 92% pure and 44% complete quasar candidate sample is attainable from the above griz-selected catalog. Finally, we show that the presented A-γ technique, besides selecting clean and pure samples of quasars (which are stochastically varying objects), is also

Graphical models for inference under outcome-dependent sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Didelez, V; Kreiner, S; Keiding, N

2010-01-01

a node for the sampling indicator, assumptions about sampling processes can be made explicit. We demonstrate how to read off such graphs whether consistent estimation of the association between exposure and outcome is possible. Moreover, we give sufficient graphical conditions for testing and estimating......We consider situations where data have been collected such that the sampling depends on the outcome of interest and possibly further covariates, as for instance in case-control studies. Graphical models represent assumptions about the conditional independencies among the variables. By including...

Correcting Model Fit Criteria for Small Sample Latent Growth Models with Incomplete Data

Science.gov (United States)

McNeish, Daniel; Harring, Jeffrey R.

2017-01-01

To date, small sample problems with latent growth models (LGMs) have not received the amount of attention in the literature as related mixed-effect models (MEMs). Although many models can be interchangeably framed as a LGM or a MEM, LGMs uniquely provide criteria to assess global data-model fit. However, previous studies have demonstrated poor…

Consumer Decision Process in Restaurant Selection: An Application of the Stylized EKB Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eugenia Wickens

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose – The aim of this paper is to propose a framework based on empirical work for understanding the consumer decision processes involved in the selection of a restaurant for leisure meals. Design/Methodology/Approach – An interpretive approach is taken in order to understand the intricacies of the process and the various stages in the process. Six focus group interviews with consumers of various ages and occupations in the South East of the United Kingdom were conducted. Findings and implications – The stylized EKB model of the consumer decision process (Tuan-Pham & Higgins, 2005 was used as a framework for developing different stages of the process. Two distinct parts of the process were identified. Occasion was found to be critical to the stage of problem recognition. In terms of evaluation of alternatives and, in particular, sensitivity to evaluative content, the research indicates that the regulatory focus theory of Tuan-Pham and Higgins (2005 applies to the decision of selecting a restaurant. Limitations – It is acknowledged that this exploratory study is based on a small sample in a single geographical area. Originality – The paper is the first application of the stylized EKB model, which takes into account the motivational dimensions of consumer decision making, missing in other models. It concludes that it may have broader applications to other research contexts.

Evidence accumulation as a model for lexical selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Anders, R; Riès, S; van Maanen, L; Alario, F X

2015-11-01

We propose and demonstrate evidence accumulation as a plausible theoretical and/or empirical model for the lexical selection process of lexical retrieval. A number of current psycholinguistic theories consider lexical selection as a process related to selecting a lexical target from a number of alternatives, which each have varying activations (or signal supports), that are largely resultant of an initial stimulus recognition. We thoroughly present a case for how such a process may be theoretically explained by the evidence accumulation paradigm, and we demonstrate how this paradigm can be directly related or combined with conventional psycholinguistic theory and their simulatory instantiations (generally, neural network models). Then with a demonstrative application on a large new real data set, we establish how the empirical evidence accumulation approach is able to provide parameter results that are informative to leading psycholinguistic theory, and that motivate future theoretical development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonmathematical models for evolution of altruism, and for group selection (peck order-territoriality-ant colony-dual-determinant model-tri-determinant model).

Science.gov (United States)

Darlington, P J

1972-02-01

Mathematical biologists have failed to produce a satisfactory general model for evolution of altruism, i.e., of behaviors by which "altruists" benefit other individuals but not themselves; kin selection does not seem to be a sufficient explanation of nonreciprocal altruism. Nonmathematical (but mathematically acceptable) models are now proposed for evolution of negative altruism in dual-determinant and of positive altruism in tri-determinant systems. Peck orders, territorial systems, and an ant society are analyzed as examples. In all models, evolution is primarily by individual selection, probably supplemented by group selection. Group selection is differential extinction of populations. It can act only on populations preformed by selection at the individual level, but can either cancel individual selective trends (effecting evolutionary homeostasis) or supplement them; its supplementary effect is probably increasingly important in the evolution of increasingly organized populations.

Linear model correction: A method for transferring a near-infrared multivariate calibration model without standard samples

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yan; Cai, Wensheng; Shao, Xueguang

2016-12-01

Calibration transfer is essential for practical applications of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy because the measurements of the spectra may be performed on different instruments and the difference between the instruments must be corrected. For most of calibration transfer methods, standard samples are necessary to construct the transfer model using the spectra of the samples measured on two instruments, named as master and slave instrument, respectively. In this work, a method named as linear model correction (LMC) is proposed for calibration transfer without standard samples. The method is based on the fact that, for the samples with similar physical and chemical properties, the spectra measured on different instruments are linearly correlated. The fact makes the coefficients of the linear models constructed by the spectra measured on different instruments are similar in profile. Therefore, by using the constrained optimization method, the coefficients of the master model can be transferred into that of the slave model with a few spectra measured on slave instrument. Two NIR datasets of corn and plant leaf samples measured with different instruments are used to test the performance of the method. The results show that, for both the datasets, the spectra can be correctly predicted using the transferred partial least squares (PLS) models. Because standard samples are not necessary in the method, it may be more useful in practical uses.

Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

Science.gov (United States)

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

2016-01-01

We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

A concurrent optimization model for supplier selection with fuzzy quality loss

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosyidi, C.; Murtisari, R.; Jauhari, W.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research is to develop a concurrent supplier selection model to minimize the purchasing cost and fuzzy quality loss considering process capability and assembled product specification. Design/methodology/approach: This research integrates fuzzy quality loss in the model to concurrently solve the decision making in detailed design stage and manufacturing stage. Findings: The resulted model can be used to concurrently select the optimal supplier and determine the tolerance of the components. The model balances the purchasing cost and fuzzy quality loss. Originality/value: An assembled product consists of many components which must be purchased from the suppliers. Fuzzy quality loss is integrated in the supplier selection model to allow the vagueness in final assembly by grouping the assembly into several grades according to the resulted assembly tolerance.

A concurrent optimization model for supplier selection with fuzzy quality loss

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosyidi, C.; Murtisari, R.; Jauhari, W.

2017-07-01

The purpose of this research is to develop a concurrent supplier selection model to minimize the purchasing cost and fuzzy quality loss considering process capability and assembled product specification. Design/methodology/approach: This research integrates fuzzy quality loss in the model to concurrently solve the decision making in detailed design stage and manufacturing stage. Findings: The resulted model can be used to concurrently select the optimal supplier and determine the tolerance of the components. The model balances the purchasing cost and fuzzy quality loss. Originality/value: An assembled product consists of many components which must be purchased from the suppliers. Fuzzy quality loss is integrated in the supplier selection model to allow the vagueness in final assembly by grouping the assembly into several grades according to the resulted assembly tolerance.

Evaluation of sampling strategies to estimate crown biomass

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krishna P Poudel

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background Depending on tree and site characteristics crown biomass accounts for a significant portion of the total aboveground biomass in the tree. Crown biomass estimation is useful for different purposes including evaluating the economic feasibility of crown utilization for energy production or forest products, fuel load assessments and fire management strategies, and wildfire modeling. However, crown biomass is difficult to predict because of the variability within and among species and sites. Thus the allometric equations used for predicting crown biomass should be based on data collected with precise and unbiased sampling strategies. In this study, we evaluate the performance different sampling strategies to estimate crown biomass and to evaluate the effect of sample size in estimating crown biomass. Methods Using data collected from 20 destructively sampled trees, we evaluated 11 different sampling strategies using six evaluation statistics: bias, relative bias, root mean square error (RMSE, relative RMSE, amount of biomass sampled, and relative biomass sampled. We also evaluated the performance of the selected sampling strategies when different numbers of branches (3, 6, 9, and 12 are selected from each tree. Tree specific log linear model with branch diameter and branch length as covariates was used to obtain individual branch biomass. Results Compared to all other methods stratified sampling with probability proportional to size estimation technique produced better results when three or six branches per tree were sampled. However, the systematic sampling with ratio estimation technique was the best when at least nine branches per tree were sampled. Under the stratified sampling strategy, selecting unequal number of branches per stratum produced approximately similar results to simple random sampling, but it further decreased RMSE when information on branch diameter is used in the design and estimation phases. Conclusions Use of

40 CFR 86.607-84 - Sample selection.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... Auditing of New Light-Duty Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks, and Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.607-84 Sample..., once a manufacturer ships any vehicle from the test sample, it relinquishes the prerogative to conduct...

Application of random effects to the study of resource selection by animals.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillies, Cameron S; Hebblewhite, Mark; Nielsen, Scott E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Aldridge, Cameron L; Frair, Jacqueline L; Saher, D Joanne; Stevens, Cameron E; Jerde, Christopher L

2006-07-01

1. Resource selection estimated by logistic regression is used increasingly in studies to identify critical resources for animal populations and to predict species occurrence. 2. Most frequently, individual animals are monitored and pooled to estimate population-level effects without regard to group or individual-level variation. Pooling assumes that both observations and their errors are independent, and resource selection is constant given individual variation in resource availability. 3. Although researchers have identified ways to minimize autocorrelation, variation between individuals caused by differences in selection or available resources, including functional responses in resource selection, have not been well addressed. 4. Here we review random-effects models and their application to resource selection modelling to overcome these common limitations. We present a simple case study of an analysis of resource selection by grizzly bears in the foothills of the Canadian Rocky Mountains with and without random effects. 5. Both categorical and continuous variables in the grizzly bear model differed in interpretation, both in statistical significance and coefficient sign, depending on how a random effect was included. We used a simulation approach to clarify the application of random effects under three common situations for telemetry studies: (a) discrepancies in sample sizes among individuals; (b) differences among individuals in selection where availability is constant; and (c) differences in availability with and without a functional response in resource selection. 6. We found that random intercepts accounted for unbalanced sample designs, and models with random intercepts and coefficients improved model fit given the variation in selection among individuals and functional responses in selection. Our empirical example and simulations demonstrate how including random effects in resource selection models can aid interpretation and address difficult assumptions

Probabilistic wind power forecasting with online model selection and warped gaussian process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kou, Peng; Liang, Deliang; Gao, Feng; Gao, Lin

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A new online ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. • Quantifying the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power. • Online model selection that tracks the time-varying characteristic of wind generation. • Dynamically altering the input features. • Recursive update of base models. - Abstract: Based on the online model selection and the warped Gaussian process (WGP), this paper presents an ensemble model for the probabilistic wind power forecasting. This model provides the non-Gaussian predictive distributions, which quantify the non-Gaussian uncertainties associated with wind power. In order to follow the time-varying characteristics of wind generation, multiple time dependent base forecasting models and an online model selection strategy are established, thus adaptively selecting the most probable base model for each prediction. WGP is employed as the base model, which handles the non-Gaussian uncertainties in wind power series. Furthermore, a regime switch strategy is designed to modify the input feature set dynamically, thereby enhancing the adaptiveness of the model. In an online learning framework, the base models should also be time adaptive. To achieve this, a recursive algorithm is introduced, thus permitting the online updating of WGP base models. The proposed model has been tested on the actual data collected from both single and aggregated wind farms

Augmented Self-Modeling as an Intervention for Selective Mutism

Science.gov (United States)

Kehle, Thomas J.; Bray, Melissa A.; Byer-Alcorace, Gabriel F.; Theodore, Lea A.; Kovac, Lisa M.

2012-01-01

Selective mutism is a rare disorder that is difficult to treat. It is often associated with oppositional defiant behavior, particularly in the home setting, social phobia, and, at times, autism spectrum disorder characteristics. The augmented self-modeling treatment has been relatively successful in promoting rapid diminishment of selective mutism…

Predictive and Descriptive CoMFA Models: The Effect of Variable Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Sepehri, Bakhtyar; Omidikia, Nematollah; Kompany-Zareh, Mohsen; Ghavami, Raouf

2018-01-01

Aims & Scope: In this research, 8 variable selection approaches were used to investigate the effect of variable selection on the predictive power and stability of CoMFA models. Three data sets including 36 EPAC antagonists, 79 CD38 inhibitors and 57 ATAD2 bromodomain inhibitors were modelled by CoMFA. First of all, for all three data sets, CoMFA models with all CoMFA descriptors were created then by applying each variable selection method a new CoMFA model was developed so for each data set, 9 CoMFA models were built. Obtained results show noisy and uninformative variables affect CoMFA results. Based on created models, applying 5 variable selection approaches including FFD, SRD-FFD, IVE-PLS, SRD-UVEPLS and SPA-jackknife increases the predictive power and stability of CoMFA models significantly. Among them, SPA-jackknife removes most of the variables while FFD retains most of them. FFD and IVE-PLS are time consuming process while SRD-FFD and SRD-UVE-PLS run need to few seconds. Also applying FFD, SRD-FFD, IVE-PLS, SRD-UVE-PLS protect CoMFA countor maps information for both fields. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Variable selection and estimation for longitudinal survey data

KAUST Repository

Wang, Li

2014-09-01

There is wide interest in studying longitudinal surveys where sample subjects are observed successively over time. Longitudinal surveys have been used in many areas today, for example, in the health and social sciences, to explore relationships or to identify significant variables in regression settings. This paper develops a general strategy for the model selection problem in longitudinal sample surveys. A survey weighted penalized estimating equation approach is proposed to select significant variables and estimate the coefficients simultaneously. The proposed estimators are design consistent and perform as well as the oracle procedure when the correct submodel was known. The estimating function bootstrap is applied to obtain the standard errors of the estimated parameters with good accuracy. A fast and efficient variable selection algorithm is developed to identify significant variables for complex longitudinal survey data. Simulated examples are illustrated to show the usefulness of the proposed methodology under various model settings and sampling designs. © 2014 Elsevier Inc.

Media Exposure: How Models Simplify Sampling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Peter Stendahl

1998-01-01

In media planning, the distribution of exposures to more ad spots in more media (print, TV, radio) is crucial to the evaluation of the campaign. If such information should be sampled, it would only be possible in expensive panel-studies (eg TV-meter panels). Alternatively, the distribution...... of exposures may be modelled statistically, using the Beta distribution combined with the Binomial Distribution. Examples are given....

Modulation transfer function cascade model for a sampled IR imaging system.

Science.gov (United States)

de Luca, L; Cardone, G

1991-05-01

The performance of the infrared scanning radiometer (IRSR) is strongly stressed in convective heat transfer applications where high spatial frequencies in the signal that describes the thermal image are present. The need to characterize more deeply the system spatial resolution has led to the formulation of a cascade model for the evaluation of the actual modulation transfer function of a sampled IR imaging system. The model can yield both the aliasing band and the averaged modulation response for a general sampling subsystem. For a line scan imaging system, which is the case of a typical IRSR, a rule of thumb that states whether the combined sampling-imaging system is either imaging-dependent or sampling-dependent is proposed. The model is tested by comparing it with other noncascade models as well as by ad hoc measurements performed on a commercial digitized IRSR.

The Properties of Model Selection when Retaining Theory Variables