salar bayesian clustering: Topics by WorldWideScience.org

Sample records for salar bayesian clustering

Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Mo

2011-01-01

In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…
Identifying the source of farmed escaped Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar): Bayesian clustering analysis increases accuracy of assignment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Glover, Kevin A.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Skaala, Oystein

2009-01-01

44 cages located on 26 farms in the Hardangerfjord, western Norway. This fjord represents one of the major salmon farming areas in Norway, with a production of 57,000 t in 2007. Based upon genetic data from 17 microsatellite markers, significant but highly variable differentiation was observed among....... Accuracy of assignment varied greatly among the individual samples. For the Bayesian clustered data set consisting of five genetic groups, overall accuracy of self-assignment was 99%, demonstrating the effectiveness of this strategy to significantly increase accuracy of assignment, albeit at the expense...
Genetic differentiation and forensic efficiency evaluation for Chinese Salar ethnic minority based on a 5-dye multiplex insertion and deletion panel.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Ruilin; Shen, Chunmei; Wei, Yuanyuan; Jin, Xiaoye; Guo, Yuxin; Mu, Yuling; Sun, Siqi; Chen, Chong; Cui, Wei; Wei, Zhaoming; Lian, Zhenmin

2018-06-20

The present study investigated the genetic diversities of 30 autosomal insertion and deletion (InDel) loci of Investigator DIPplex kit (Qiagen) in Chinese Salar ethnic minority and explored the genetic relationships between the studied Salar group and other populations. The allelic frequencies of deletion alleles at the 30 InDel loci were in the range of 0.1739 (HLD64) to 0.8478 (HLD39). The discrimination power, polymorphism information content and probability of exclusion ranged from 0.4101 (HLD39) to 0.6447 (HLD136), 0.2247 (HLD39) to 0.3750 (HLD92) and 0.0400 (HLD39) to 0.2806 (HLD92), respectively. The observed and expected heterozygosity were in the range of 0.2348 (HLD39) to 0.5913 (HLD92), and 0.2580 (HLD39) to 0.5000 (HLD92), respectively. The cumulative discrimination power and probability of exclusion of the 30 loci reached 0.999999999993418 and 0.99039, respectively. The results of population genetic differentiation comparisons revealed that Salar group had similar allele distributions with Qinghai Tibetan, Xibe and Yi groups. Population Bayesian cluster analysis showed that there were similar ancestry components between Salar group and most Chinese populations. Besides, the principal components analysis and phylogenetic reconstructions further indicated that Salar group had intimate genetic relationships with Qinghai Tibetan and Xibe groups. In short, the results of the current studies indicated the genetic distributions of the 30 InDel loci in Salar group were relatively high genetic polymorphisms, which could be used in forensic individual identifications and as a supplementary tool for complex paternity testing. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Seismic Signal Compression Using Nonparametric Bayesian Dictionary Learning via Clustering

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Xin Tian

2017-06-01

Full Text Available We introduce a seismic signal compression method based on nonparametric Bayesian dictionary learning method via clustering. The seismic data is compressed patch by patch, and the dictionary is learned online. Clustering is introduced for dictionary learning. A set of dictionaries could be generated, and each dictionary is used for one cluster’s sparse coding. In this way, the signals in one cluster could be well represented by their corresponding dictionaries. A nonparametric Bayesian dictionary learning method is used to learn the dictionaries, which naturally infers an appropriate dictionary size for each cluster. A uniform quantizer and an adaptive arithmetic coding algorithm are adopted to code the sparse coefficients. With comparisons to other state-of-the art approaches, the effectiveness of the proposed method could be validated in the experiments.
Hanhaqimei,a Salar Woman

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

1997-01-01

The Salar nationality,with apopulation of 87,697,mainly settles in Xunhua Salar Nationality Autonomous County in eastern Qinghai Province.The Salar have their own spoken language,but no written script.Most of the Salar use Mandarin Chinese.According to legend and historians,their ancestors movde to Xunhua from Middle Asia in the 13th century.The Salar living by the Yellow River engage in agriculture and animal husbandry as their Primary means of support. The Salar believe in Islam and are also greatly influenced by confucian culture developed by the Han nationality.
Bayesian versus frequentist statistical inference for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department

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Wills Rachael A

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The problem of silent multiple comparisons is one of the most difficult statistical problems faced by scientists. It is a particular problem for investigating a one-off cancer cluster reported to a health department because any one of hundreds, or possibly thousands, of neighbourhoods, schools, or workplaces could have reported a cluster, which could have been for any one of several types of cancer or any one of several time periods. Methods This paper contrasts the frequentist approach with a Bayesian approach for dealing with silent multiple comparisons in the context of a one-off cluster reported to a health department. Two published cluster investigations were re-analysed using the Dunn-Sidak method to adjust frequentist p-values and confidence intervals for silent multiple comparisons. Bayesian methods were based on the Gamma distribution. Results Bayesian analysis with non-informative priors produced results similar to the frequentist analysis, and suggested that both clusters represented a statistical excess. In the frequentist framework, the statistical significance of both clusters was extremely sensitive to the number of silent multiple comparisons, which can only ever be a subjective "guesstimate". The Bayesian approach is also subjective: whether there is an apparent statistical excess depends on the specified prior. Conclusion In cluster investigations, the frequentist approach is just as subjective as the Bayesian approach, but the Bayesian approach is less ambitious in that it treats the analysis as a synthesis of data and personal judgements (possibly poor ones, rather than objective reality. Bayesian analysis is (arguably a useful tool to support complicated decision-making, because it makes the uncertainty associated with silent multiple comparisons explicit.
Comparison of Bayesian clustering and edge detection methods for inferring boundaries in landscape genetics

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Safner, T.; Miller, M.P.; McRae, B.H.; Fortin, M.-J.; Manel, S.

2011-01-01

Recently, techniques available for identifying clusters of individuals or boundaries between clusters using genetic data from natural populations have expanded rapidly. Consequently, there is a need to evaluate these different techniques. We used spatially-explicit simulation models to compare three spatial Bayesian clustering programs and two edge detection methods. Spatially-structured populations were simulated where a continuous population was subdivided by barriers. We evaluated the ability of each method to correctly identify boundary locations while varying: (i) time after divergence, (ii) strength of isolation by distance, (iii) level of genetic diversity, and (iv) amount of gene flow across barriers. To further evaluate the methods' effectiveness to detect genetic clusters in natural populations, we used previously published data on North American pumas and a European shrub. Our results show that with simulated and empirical data, the Bayesian spatial clustering algorithms outperformed direct edge detection methods. All methods incorrectly detected boundaries in the presence of strong patterns of isolation by distance. Based on this finding, we support the application of Bayesian spatial clustering algorithms for boundary detection in empirical datasets, with necessary tests for the influence of isolation by distance. ?? 2011 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
FUZZY CLUSTERING BASED BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK TO PREDICT MENTAL HEALTH PROBLEMS AMONG CHILDREN

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M R Sumathi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available According to World Health Organization, 10-20% of children and adolescents all over the world are experiencing mental disorders. Correct diagnosis of mental disorders at an early stage improves the quality of life of children and avoids complicated problems. Various expert systems using artificial intelligence techniques have been developed for diagnosing mental disorders like Schizophrenia, Depression, Dementia, etc. This study focuses on predicting basic mental health problems of children, like Attention problem, Anxiety problem, Developmental delay, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD, Pervasive Developmental Disorder(PDD, etc. using the machine learning techniques, Bayesian Networks and Fuzzy clustering. The focus of the article is on learning the Bayesian network structure using a novel Fuzzy Clustering Based Bayesian network structure learning framework. The performance of the proposed framework was compared with the other existing algorithms and the experimental results have shown that the proposed framework performs better than the earlier algorithms.
a salar elahi

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Home; Journals; Pramana – Journal of Physics. A SALAR ELAHI. Articles written in Pramana – Journal of Physics. Volume 87 Issue 5 November 2016 pp 81 Regular. Analysis of tokamak plasma confinement modes using the fast Fourier transformation · S R MIRMOEINI A SALAR ELAHI M GHORANNEVISS · More Details ...
Manual hierarchical clustering of regional geochemical data using a Bayesian finite mixture model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ellefsen, Karl J.; Smith, David B.

2016-01-01

Interpretation of regional scale, multivariate geochemical data is aided by a statistical technique called “clustering.” We investigate a particular clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data collected in the State of Colorado, United States of America. The clustering procedure partitions the field samples for the entire survey area into two clusters. The field samples in each cluster are partitioned again to create two subclusters, and so on. This manual procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters, and the different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical and geological processes occurring at different spatial scales. Although there are many different clustering methods, we use Bayesian finite mixture modeling with two probability distributions, which yields two clusters. The model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability density function, which usually has multiple modes. Each mode has its own set of model parameters; each set is checked to ensure that it is consistent both with the data and with independent geologic knowledge. The set of model parameters that is most consistent with the independent geologic knowledge is selected for detailed interpretation and partitioning of the field samples. - Highlights: • We evaluate a clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data. • The procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters. • Different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical processes at different spatial scales. • The clustering method is Bayesian finite mixture modeling. • Model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling.
Low-Complexity Bayesian Estimation of Cluster-Sparse Channels

KAUST Repository

Ballal, Tarig

2015-09-18

This paper addresses the problem of channel impulse response estimation for cluster-sparse channels under the Bayesian estimation framework. We develop a novel low-complexity minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimator by exploiting the sparsity of the received signal profile and the structure of the measurement matrix. It is shown that due to the banded Toeplitz/circulant structure of the measurement matrix, a channel impulse response, such as underwater acoustic channel impulse responses, can be partitioned into a number of orthogonal or approximately orthogonal clusters. The orthogonal clusters, the sparsity of the channel impulse response and the structure of the measurement matrix, all combined, result in a computationally superior realization of the MMSE channel estimator. The MMSE estimator calculations boil down to simpler in-cluster calculations that can be reused in different clusters. The reduction in computational complexity allows for a more accurate implementation of the MMSE estimator. The proposed approach is tested using synthetic Gaussian channels, as well as simulated underwater acoustic channels. Symbol-error-rate performance and computation time confirm the superiority of the proposed method compared to selected benchmark methods in systems with preamble-based training signals transmitted over clustersparse channels.
Low-Complexity Bayesian Estimation of Cluster-Sparse Channels

KAUST Repository

Ballal, Tarig; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.; Ahmed, Syed

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the problem of channel impulse response estimation for cluster-sparse channels under the Bayesian estimation framework. We develop a novel low-complexity minimum mean squared error (MMSE) estimator by exploiting the sparsity of the received signal profile and the structure of the measurement matrix. It is shown that due to the banded Toeplitz/circulant structure of the measurement matrix, a channel impulse response, such as underwater acoustic channel impulse responses, can be partitioned into a number of orthogonal or approximately orthogonal clusters. The orthogonal clusters, the sparsity of the channel impulse response and the structure of the measurement matrix, all combined, result in a computationally superior realization of the MMSE channel estimator. The MMSE estimator calculations boil down to simpler in-cluster calculations that can be reused in different clusters. The reduction in computational complexity allows for a more accurate implementation of the MMSE estimator. The proposed approach is tested using synthetic Gaussian channels, as well as simulated underwater acoustic channels. Symbol-error-rate performance and computation time confirm the superiority of the proposed method compared to selected benchmark methods in systems with preamble-based training signals transmitted over clustersparse channels.
On the Informativeness of Dominant and Co-Dominant Genetic Markers for Bayesian Supervised Clustering

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guillot, Gilles; Carpentier-Skandalis, Alexandra

2011-01-01

We study the accuracy of a Bayesian supervised method used to cluster individuals into genetically homogeneous groups on the basis of dominant or codominant molecular markers. We provide a formula relating an error criterion to the number of loci used and the number of clusters. This formula...
Hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric mixture models for clustering with variable relevance determination.

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Yau, Christopher; Holmes, Chris

2011-07-01

We propose a hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for clustering when some of the covariates are assumed to be of varying relevance to the clustering problem. This can be thought of as an issue in variable selection for unsupervised learning. We demonstrate that by defining a hierarchical population based nonparametric prior on the cluster locations scaled by the inverse covariance matrices of the likelihood we arrive at a 'sparsity prior' representation which admits a conditionally conjugate prior. This allows us to perform full Gibbs sampling to obtain posterior distributions over parameters of interest including an explicit measure of each covariate's relevance and a distribution over the number of potential clusters present in the data. This also allows for individual cluster specific variable selection. We demonstrate improved inference on a number of canonical problems.
Semiparametric Bayesian analysis of accelerated failure time models with cluster structures.

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Li, Zhaonan; Xu, Xinyi; Shen, Junshan

2017-11-10

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for survival data with cluster structures. Our model allows distributional heterogeneity across clusters and accommodates their relationships through a density ratio approach. Moreover, a nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet processes prior is placed on the baseline distribution to yield full distributional flexibility. We illustrate through simulations that our model can greatly improve estimation accuracy by effectively pooling information from multiple clusters, while taking into account the heterogeneity in their random error distributions. We also demonstrate the implementation of our method using analysis of Mayo Clinic Trial in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bayesian Nonparametric Clustering for Positive Definite Matrices.

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Cherian, Anoop; Morellas, Vassilios; Papanikolopoulos, Nikolaos

2016-05-01

Symmetric Positive Definite (SPD) matrices emerge as data descriptors in several applications of computer vision such as object tracking, texture recognition, and diffusion tensor imaging. Clustering these data matrices forms an integral part of these applications, for which soft-clustering algorithms (K-Means, expectation maximization, etc.) are generally used. As is well-known, these algorithms need the number of clusters to be specified, which is difficult when the dataset scales. To address this issue, we resort to the classical nonparametric Bayesian framework by modeling the data as a mixture model using the Dirichlet process (DP) prior. Since these matrices do not conform to the Euclidean geometry, rather belongs to a curved Riemannian manifold,existing DP models cannot be directly applied. Thus, in this paper, we propose a novel DP mixture model framework for SPD matrices. Using the log-determinant divergence as the underlying dissimilarity measure to compare these matrices, and further using the connection between this measure and the Wishart distribution, we derive a novel DPM model based on the Wishart-Inverse-Wishart conjugate pair. We apply this model to several applications in computer vision. Our experiments demonstrate that our model is scalable to the dataset size and at the same time achieves superior accuracy compared to several state-of-the-art parametric and nonparametric clustering algorithms.
Efficient nonparametric and asymptotic Bayesian model selection methods for attributed graph clustering

KAUST Repository

Xu, Zhiqiang

2017-02-16

Attributed graph clustering, also known as community detection on attributed graphs, attracts much interests recently due to the ubiquity of attributed graphs in real life. Many existing algorithms have been proposed for this problem, which are either distance based or model based. However, model selection in attributed graph clustering has not been well addressed, that is, most existing algorithms assume the cluster number to be known a priori. In this paper, we propose two efficient approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection. The first approach is a popular Bayesian nonparametric method, while the second approach is an asymptotic method based on a recently proposed model selection criterion, factorized information criterion. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection significantly outperform the state-of-the-art algorithm.
Efficient nonparametric and asymptotic Bayesian model selection methods for attributed graph clustering

KAUST Repository

Xu, Zhiqiang; Cheng, James; Xiao, Xiaokui; Fujimaki, Ryohei; Muraoka, Yusuke

2017-01-01

Attributed graph clustering, also known as community detection on attributed graphs, attracts much interests recently due to the ubiquity of attributed graphs in real life. Many existing algorithms have been proposed for this problem, which are either distance based or model based. However, model selection in attributed graph clustering has not been well addressed, that is, most existing algorithms assume the cluster number to be known a priori. In this paper, we propose two efficient approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection. The first approach is a popular Bayesian nonparametric method, while the second approach is an asymptotic method based on a recently proposed model selection criterion, factorized information criterion. Experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approaches for attributed graph clustering with automatic model selection significantly outperform the state-of-the-art algorithm.
Determining open cluster membership. A Bayesian framework for quantitative member classification

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Stott, Jonathan J.

2018-01-01

Aims: My goal is to develop a quantitative algorithm for assessing open cluster membership probabilities. The algorithm is designed to work with single-epoch observations. In its simplest form, only one set of program images and one set of reference images are required. Methods: The algorithm is based on a two-stage joint astrometric and photometric assessment of cluster membership probabilities. The probabilities were computed within a Bayesian framework using any available prior information. Where possible, the algorithm emphasizes simplicity over mathematical sophistication. Results: The algorithm was implemented and tested against three observational fields using published survey data. M 67 and NGC 654 were selected as cluster examples while a third, cluster-free, field was used for the final test data set. The algorithm shows good quantitative agreement with the existing surveys and has a false-positive rate significantly lower than the astrometric or photometric methods used individually.
A fully Bayesian latent variable model for integrative clustering analysis of multi-type omics data.

Science.gov (United States)

Mo, Qianxing; Shen, Ronglai; Guo, Cui; Vannucci, Marina; Chan, Keith S; Hilsenbeck, Susan G

2018-01-01

Identification of clinically relevant tumor subtypes and omics signatures is an important task in cancer translational research for precision medicine. Large-scale genomic profiling studies such as The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Research Network have generated vast amounts of genomic, transcriptomic, epigenomic, and proteomic data. While these studies have provided great resources for researchers to discover clinically relevant tumor subtypes and driver molecular alterations, there are few computationally efficient methods and tools for integrative clustering analysis of these multi-type omics data. Therefore, the aim of this article is to develop a fully Bayesian latent variable method (called iClusterBayes) that can jointly model omics data of continuous and discrete data types for identification of tumor subtypes and relevant omics features. Specifically, the proposed method uses a few latent variables to capture the inherent structure of multiple omics data sets to achieve joint dimension reduction. As a result, the tumor samples can be clustered in the latent variable space and relevant omics features that drive the sample clustering are identified through Bayesian variable selection. This method significantly improve on the existing integrative clustering method iClusterPlus in terms of statistical inference and computational speed. By analyzing TCGA and simulated data sets, we demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method in revealing clinically meaningful tumor subtypes and driver omics features. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

AGGLOMERATIVE CLUSTERING OF SOUND RECORD SPEECH SEGMENTS BASED ON BAYESIAN INFORMATION CRITERION

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O. Yu. Kydashev

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the detailed description of agglomerative clustering system implementation for speech segments based on Bayesian information criterion. Numerical experiment results with different acoustic features, as well as the full and diagonal covariance matrices application are given. The error rate DER equal to 6.4% for audio records of radio «Svoboda» was achieved by means of designed system.
Bayesian nonparametric clustering in phylogenetics: modeling antigenic evolution in influenza.

Science.gov (United States)

Cybis, Gabriela B; Sinsheimer, Janet S; Bedford, Trevor; Rambaut, Andrew; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A

2018-01-30

Influenza is responsible for up to 500,000 deaths every year, and antigenic variability represents much of its epidemiological burden. To visualize antigenic differences across many viral strains, antigenic cartography methods use multidimensional scaling on binding assay data to map influenza antigenicity onto a low-dimensional space. Analysis of such assay data ideally leads to natural clustering of influenza strains of similar antigenicity that correlate with sequence evolution. To understand the dynamics of these antigenic groups, we present a framework that jointly models genetic and antigenic evolution by combining multidimensional scaling of binding assay data, Bayesian phylogenetic machinery and nonparametric clustering methods. We propose a phylogenetic Chinese restaurant process that extends the current process to incorporate the phylogenetic dependency structure between strains in the modeling of antigenic clusters. With this method, we are able to use the genetic information to better understand the evolution of antigenicity throughout epidemics, as shown in applications of this model to H1N1 influenza. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Exiled by Definition:The Salar of Northwest China

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David SG Goodman

2005-03-01

Full Text Available The reform of state socialism came relatively late to Qinghai Province in the Northwest of the People’s Republic of China. One of Qinghai’s most dynamic groups in the social leadership of reform has been the Salar. The Salar were one of the officially recognized nationalities identified in the People’s Republic of China during the 1950s. A relatively small group of some 100,000 currently live along the upper reaches of the Yellow River, on the borders of Qinghai and Gansu Provinces. The Salar are characterised by their commitment to both Islam and China, and by their belief that they live in permanent exile, though there is considerable uncertainty about their origins. The evidence of recent research in Qinghai suggests the perspective of being Chinese citizens, yet a people in exile, significantly shapes recent Salar social and economic activism.
Ethnoarchéologie du salar d'Uyuni: sel et cultures régionales inter salar

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1985-01-01

Full Text Available Le sel a toujours été l'une des denrées fondamentalement indispensables à la vie quotidienne des hommes. Abondant dans les hauts plateaux des Andes centrales, il constitue l'une des principales richesses des populations locales. Transporté par caravanes de lamas vers d'autres écozones où il est troqué, littoral pacifique, moyennes et basses vallées orientales, il permet à chaque communauté d'acquérir les matières premières complémentaires nécessaires à sa propre subsistance: maïs, piment, coca ou algues... En Bolivie, les grands salars d'Uyuni et de Coipasa sont les principaux centres d'approvisionnement en sel. Leur exploitation à l'échelle régionale semblerait remonter bien avant la colonisation espagnole? La zone 'inter salar,' comprise entre ces deux grandes salines proches de la frontière chilienne, est la mieux localisée pour essayer de déterminer l'exploitation dont elles ont pu faire l'objet par les diverses cultures régionales anciennes ou plus contemporaines. Cette interrogation est à la base du projet d'ethnoarchéologie commencé sur cette région. Cet article présente les premiers résultats de la prospection archéologique menée du 15 novembre au 15 décembre 1983 dans le cadre de ce programme. Il révèle l'existence de nombreux sites fortifiés ou d'inhumations pré-inca correspondant, dans leur ensemble, à des cultures ou grandes chefferies régionales ou 'señoríos' post-Tiwanaku, pouvant être liés au salar et au commerce du sel? Il met l'accent sur les problèmes soulevés par cette étude, les possibilités d'interprétation que nous pouvons avancer et les orientations souhaitées pour compléter ce projet. Siempre la sal ha sido uno de los productos fundamentalmente necesarios para la vida cotidiana del ser humano. Muy abundante en el altiplano de los Andes centrales, la sal constituye, para las poblaciones locales, una de sus riquezas más valiosas. Cargada y trasladada por caravanas de
Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

CERN Document Server

Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

2015-01-01

Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on
Evaluation of LANDSAT-2 (ERTS) images applied to geologic structures and mineral resources of South America. [Salar de Coposa, Chile and Salar of Uyuni, Bolivia

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, W. D. (Principal Investigator); Kowalik, W. S.

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The Salar of Coposa is located in northern Chile along the frontier with Bolivia. The surface was divided into six general classes of materials. Analysis of LANDSAT image 1243-14001 by use of interactive multispectral computer (Image 100) enabled accurate repetition of these general classes based on reflectance. The Salar of Uyuni is the largest of the South American evaporite deposits. Using image 1243-13595, and parallel piped computer classification of reflectance units, the Salar was divided into nine classes ranging from deep to shallow water, water over salt, salt saturated with water, and several classes of dry salt.
Comparison of sperm motility subpopulation structure among wild anadromous and farmed male Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) parr using a CASA system.

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Caldeira, Carina; García-Molina, Almudena; Valverde, Anthony; Bompart, Daznia; Hassane, Megan; Martin, Patrick; Soler, Carles

2018-04-13

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is an endangered freshwater species that needs help to recover its wild stocks. However, the priority in aquaculture is to obtain successful fertilisation and genetic variability to secure the revival of the species. The aims of the present work were to study sperm subpopulation structure and motility patterns in wild anadromous males and farmed male Atlantic salmon parr. Salmon sperm samples were collected from wild anadromous salmon (WS) and two generations of farmed parr males. Sperm samples were collected from sexually mature males and sperm motility was analysed at different times after activation (5 and 35s). Differences among the three groups were analysed using statistical techniques based on Cluster analysis the Bayesian method. Atlantic salmon were found to have three sperm subpopulations, and the spermatozoa in ejaculates of mature farmed parr males had a higher velocity and larger size than those of WS males. This could be an adaptation to high sperm competition because salmonid species are naturally adapted to this process. Motility analysis enables us to identify sperm subpopulations, and it may be useful to correlate these sperm subpopulations with fertilisation ability to test whether faster-swimming spermatozoa have a higher probability of success.
Water chemistry and its effects on the physiology and survival of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts

Science.gov (United States)

Liebich, T.; McCormick, S.D.; Kircheis, D.; Johnson, K.; Regal, R.; Hrabik, T.

2011-01-01

The physiological effects of episodic pH fluctuations on Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts in eastern Maine, U.S.A., were investigated. During this study, S. salar smolts were exposed to ambient stream-water chemistry conditions at nine sites in four catchments for 3 and 6 day intervals during the spring S. salar smolt migration period. Plasma chloride, plasma glucose, gill aluminium and gill Na+- and K+-ATPase levels in S. salar smolts were assessed in relation to ambient stream-water chemistry during this migration period. Changes in both plasma chloride and plasma glucose levels of S. salar smolts were strongly correlated with stream pH, and S. salar smolt mortality occurred in one study site with ambient stream pH between 5??6 and 5??8 during the study period. The findings from this study suggest that physiological effects on S. salar smolts are strongly correlated with stream pH and that in rivers and streams with low dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations the threshold for physiological effects and mortality probably occurs at a higher pH and shorter exposure period than in rivers with higher DOC. Additionally, whenever an acidification event in which pH drops below 5??9 coincides with S. salar smolt migration in eastern Maine rivers, there is potential for a significant reduction in plasma ions of S. salar smolts. ?? 2011 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Advances in Bayesian Model Based Clustering Using Particle Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Merl, D M

2009-11-19

Recent work by Carvalho, Johannes, Lopes and Polson and Carvalho, Lopes, Polson and Taddy introduced a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) alternative to traditional iterative Monte Carlo strategies (e.g. MCMC and EM) for Bayesian inference for a large class of dynamic models. The basis of SMC techniques involves representing the underlying inference problem as one of state space estimation, thus giving way to inference via particle filtering. The key insight of Carvalho et al was to construct the sequence of filtering distributions so as to make use of the posterior predictive distribution of the observable, a distribution usually only accessible in certain Bayesian settings. Access to this distribution allows a reversal of the usual propagate and resample steps characteristic of many SMC methods, thereby alleviating to a large extent many problems associated with particle degeneration. Furthermore, Carvalho et al point out that for many conjugate models the posterior distribution of the static variables can be parametrized in terms of [recursively defined] sufficient statistics of the previously observed data. For models where such sufficient statistics exist, particle learning as it is being called, is especially well suited for the analysis of streaming data do to the relative invariance of its algorithmic complexity with the number of data observations. Through a particle learning approach, a statistical model can be fit to data as the data is arriving, allowing at any instant during the observation process direct quantification of uncertainty surrounding underlying model parameters. Here we describe the use of a particle learning approach for fitting a standard Bayesian semiparametric mixture model as described in Carvalho, Lopes, Polson and Taddy. In Section 2 we briefly review the previously presented particle learning algorithm for the case of a Dirichlet process mixture of multivariate normals. In Section 3 we describe several novel extensions to the original
Verification of Bayesian Clustering in Travel Behaviour Research – First Step to Macroanalysis of Travel Behaviour

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Satra, P.; Carsky, J.

2018-04-01

Our research is looking at the travel behaviour from a macroscopic view, taking one municipality as a basic unit. The travel behaviour of one municipality as a whole is becoming one piece of a data in the research of travel behaviour of a larger area, perhaps a country. A data pre-processing is used to cluster the municipalities in groups, which show similarities in their travel behaviour. Such groups can be then researched for reasons of their prevailing pattern of travel behaviour without any distortion caused by municipalities with a different pattern. This paper deals with actual settings of the clustering process, which is based on Bayesian statistics, particularly the mixture model. An optimization of the settings parameters based on correlation of pointer model parameters and relative number of data in clusters is helpful, however not fully reliable method. Thus, method for graphic representation of clusters needs to be developed in order to check their quality. A training of the setting parameters in 2D has proven to be a beneficial method, because it allows visual control of the produced clusters. The clustering better be applied on separate groups of municipalities, where competition of only identical transport modes can be found.
Bayesian investigation of isochrone consistency using the old open cluster NGC 188

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hills, Shane; Courteau, Stéphane [Department of Physics, Engineering Physics and Astronomy, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6 Canada (Canada); Von Hippel, Ted [Department of Physical Sciences, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL 32114 (United States); Geller, Aaron M., E-mail: shane.hills@queensu.ca, E-mail: courteau@astro.queensu.ca, E-mail: ted.vonhippel@erau.edu, E-mail: a-geller@northwestern.edu [Center for Interdisciplinary Exploration and Research in Astrophysics (CIERA) and Department of Physics and Astronomy, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208 (United States)

2015-03-01

This paper provides a detailed comparison of the differences in parameters derived for a star cluster from its color–magnitude diagrams (CMDs) depending on the filters and models used. We examine the consistency and reliability of fitting three widely used stellar evolution models to 15 combinations of optical and near-IR photometry for the old open cluster NGC 188. The optical filter response curves match those of theoretical systems and are thus not the source of fit inconsistencies. NGC 188 is ideally suited to this study thanks to a wide variety of high-quality photometry and available proper motions and radial velocities that enable us to remove non-cluster members and many binaries. Our Bayesian fitting technique yields inferred values of age, metallicity, distance modulus, and absorption as a function of the photometric band combinations and stellar models. We show that the historically favored three-band combinations of UBV and VRI can be meaningfully inconsistent with each other and with longer baseline data sets such as UBVRIJHK{sub S}. Differences among model sets can also be substantial. For instance, fitting Yi et al. (2001) and Dotter et al. (2008) models to UBVRIJHK{sub S} photometry for NGC 188 yields the following cluster parameters: age = (5.78 ± 0.03, 6.45 ± 0.04) Gyr, [Fe/H] = (+0.125 ± 0.003, −0.077 ± 0.003) dex, (m−M){sub V} = (11.441 ± 0.007, 11.525 ± 0.005) mag, and A{sub V} = (0.162 ± 0.003, 0.236 ± 0.003) mag, respectively. Within the formal fitting errors, these two fits are substantially and statistically different. Such differences among fits using different filters and models are a cautionary tale regarding our current ability to fit star cluster CMDs. Additional modeling of this kind, with more models and star clusters, and future Gaia parallaxes are critical for isolating and quantifying the most relevant uncertainties in stellar evolutionary models.
Antecedentes hidroquímicos del Salar de Aguas Calientes I (Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ingrid Garcés Millas

2012-01-01

Full Text Available El Salar de Aguas Calientes I es un sistema salino del Altiplano chileno, situado a4.280 m.s.n.m, expuesto a condiciones ambientales áridas. El presente trabajo da cuenta del estudio hidroquímico de las soluciones superficiales existentes en el salar, tanto de soluciones diluidas como concentradas en surgencias y acumulaciones lacustres, así como de la mineralogía de las sales precipitadas por evaporación de estas aguas lacustres. Los principales aportes de agua al salar ingresan por la zona norte y por el sector sur, siendo estos últimos de carácter termal. Los restantes aportes se limitan a escasas precipitaciones en forma de escorrentía superficial o subsuperficial. Todas estas aguas circulan hacia las zonas más bajas del salar, y se acumulan en distintos puntos a lo largo de su sector occidental como consecuencia de un ligero basculamiento en su superficie. Los resultados del análisis químico indican que, a pesar de tratarse de aguas con grados de concentración variable y que oscilan entre muy diluidas y altamente concentradas, todas ellas pertenecen al tipo químico Na-Cl, debido a la interacción de las aguas con los depósitos salinos preexistentes en el salar, en los que predominan halita y yeso. Además, todas las soluciones mostraron elevados contenidos en elementos químicos asociados a actividad hidrotermal como son Li, B y As, encontrándose este último en rangos de toxicidad incluso en las muestras diluidas. En el margen norte del salar, las aguas de una surgencia no termal caracterizadas por ser de muy baja concentración en sales minerales, discurren hacia el salar,alimentando una zona de bofedal en la que se desarrolla importante vida vegetal y sirven de sustento a los rebaños de camélidos del área. En cambio, las aguas de los sectores central y meridional (donde se encuentra una surgencia de carácter termal son mucho más concentradas, acumulándose en lagunas desprovistas de desarrollo vegetal. El an
Evidence for episodic acidification effects on migrating Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, John T; Lerner, Darrren T.; O'Dea, Michael F.; Regish, Amy M.; Monette, Michelle Y.; Hawkes, J.P.; Nislow, Keith H.; McCormick, Stephen

2015-01-01

Field studies were conducted to determine levels of gill aluminium as an index of acidification effects on migrating Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts in the north-eastern U.S.A. along mainstem river migration corridors in several major river basins. Smolts emigrating from the Connecticut River, where most (but not all) tributaries were well buffered, had low or undetectable levels of gill aluminium and high gill Na+/K+-ATPase (NKA) activity. In contrast, smolts emigrating from the upper Merrimack River basin where most tributaries are characterized by low pH and high inorganic aluminium had consistently elevated gill aluminium and lower gill NKA activity, which may explain the low adult return rates of S. salar stocked into the upper Merrimack catchment. In the Sheepscot, Narraguagus and Penobscot Rivers in Maine, river and year-specific effects on gill aluminium were detected that appeared to be driven by underlying geology and high spring discharge. The results indicate that episodic acidification is affecting S. salar smolts in poorly buffered streams in New England and may help explain variation in S. salar survival and abundance among rivers and among years, with implications for the conservation and recovery of S. salar in the north-eastern U.S.A. These results suggest that the physiological condition of outmigrating smolts may serve as a large-scale sentinel of landscape-level recovery of atmospheric pollution in this and other parts of the North Atlantic region.
Salars evaporation rates evaluation using isotope techniques, Bellavista Salar, Chile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grilli, A.; Ortiz, J.

1989-01-01

Long term evaporation rates are evaluated in different soil conditions at Bellavista Salar, using environmental isotope profiles (oxygen-18) of the unsaturated soil zone. The Barnes and Allison model was adapted to stratified soils under non-saturation conditions and for a non-isothermal permanent regime. To apply the proposed model, field data of the different variables were used and the evaporation rates were obtained adjunting the δ 18 O values generated by the model to those experimentally measured in the water extracted from the soil profile of the unsaturated soil zone. (author). 13 refs, 8 figs
Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasu, L M; Andonie, R

2013-10-01

Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

2009-01-01

(domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes......Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....
Bayesian community detection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

2012-01-01

Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....
Multi-temporal remote sensing analysis of salars in El Loa Province, Chile: Implications for water resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Markovich, K.; Pierce, S. A.

2011-12-01

Salar de Ascotán and Salar de Carcote are internally drained, evaporative basins located in the Atacama Desert, 200 km northeast of Antofogasta in Region II, Chile. The two salars are part of a regional groundwater system that recharges in the adjacent uplands to the east and terminates in the regional topographic low at Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia. This regional groundwater system is discharged locally as spring-fed perennial surface water that flows across the salar surface and either evaporates, or reinfiltrates, in lagoon-like environments. This perennial surface water supports diverse flora and fauna in the salar basins, including flamingo, vicuña, and the endemic fish species Orestias ascotanensis. Mining projects in the region began pumping the groundwater system in the Ascotán basin in the mid-1990's, leading to concern about the preservation of spring-fed surface flows. While hydrologic and ecologic monitoring efforts have been coordinated, data collection is limited to in-situ measurements and antecedent records precede extraction by approximately six months. Remote sensing can provide a means for large scale monitoring of the salars, as well as providing additional historical data to support environmental management of the systems. This comparative study utilizes satellite imagery to detect changes in surface water extent in the two salars and evaluate the results for possible correlation with climatic and/or anthropogenic factors. Landsat TM and ETM+ images from the time period of 1986-2011 are analyzed for surface water extent, and geographic information technologies are used to integrate the remotely sensed data with in-situ measurements. Early results indicate that surface water extent on the salar surface has diminished from 1986 and present day conditions. The decrease is most pronounced in the Ascotán basin, suggesting a possible correlation to anthropogenic influences. Also, the rate of decrease in surface water presence is most elevated in the
Effects of hydropeaking on the spawning behaviour of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta.

Science.gov (United States)

Vollset, K W; Skoglund, H; Wiers, T; Barlaup, B T

2016-06-01

An in situ camera set-up was used to study the spawning activity of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta throughout two consecutive seasons in a spawning area affected by hydropower-related pulse flows due to hydropeaking. The purpose was to test whether the flow variation discouraged spawning in shallow areas or motivated spawning into areas with elevated risk of incubation mortality. There were more S. salar observed on the spawning ground during days with high discharge. The presence of S. salar in the spawning grounds was not affected by the hydropeaking cycles of the preceding night. Female S. salar were observed preparing nests within the first hour after water discharge had increased to levels suitable for spawning. In contrast, the number of S. trutta was not correlated with flow and nest preparation was also observed at a discharge corresponding to the lowest discharge levels during a hydropeaking cycle. Survival was generally high in nests excavated the following winter, with only 5·4% suffering mortality due to dewatering. The results suggest that S. salar may respond rapidly to variable-flow conditions and utilize short windows with suitable flows for spawning. Smaller S. trutta may utilize low-flow conditions to spawn in areas that are not habitable by larger S. salar during low flow. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
A spatio-temporal nonparametric Bayesian variable selection model of fMRI data for clustering correlated time courses.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Linlin; Guindani, Michele; Versace, Francesco; Vannucci, Marina

2014-07-15

In this paper we present a novel wavelet-based Bayesian nonparametric regression model for the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Our goal is to provide a joint analytical framework that allows to detect regions of the brain which exhibit neuronal activity in response to a stimulus and, simultaneously, infer the association, or clustering, of spatially remote voxels that exhibit fMRI time series with similar characteristics. We start by modeling the data with a hemodynamic response function (HRF) with a voxel-dependent shape parameter. We detect regions of the brain activated in response to a given stimulus by using mixture priors with a spike at zero on the coefficients of the regression model. We account for the complex spatial correlation structure of the brain by using a Markov random field (MRF) prior on the parameters guiding the selection of the activated voxels, therefore capturing correlation among nearby voxels. In order to infer association of the voxel time courses, we assume correlated errors, in particular long memory, and exploit the whitening properties of discrete wavelet transforms. Furthermore, we achieve clustering of the voxels by imposing a Dirichlet process (DP) prior on the parameters of the long memory process. For inference, we use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling techniques that combine Metropolis-Hastings schemes employed in Bayesian variable selection with sampling algorithms for nonparametric DP models. We explore the performance of the proposed model on simulated data, with both block- and event-related design, and on real fMRI data. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accurate phenotyping: Reconciling approaches through Bayesian model averaging.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carla Chia-Ming Chen

Full Text Available Genetic research into complex diseases is frequently hindered by a lack of clear biomarkers for phenotype ascertainment. Phenotypes for such diseases are often identified on the basis of clinically defined criteria; however such criteria may not be suitable for understanding the genetic composition of the diseases. Various statistical approaches have been proposed for phenotype definition; however our previous studies have shown that differences in phenotypes estimated using different approaches have substantial impact on subsequent analyses. Instead of obtaining results based upon a single model, we propose a new method, using Bayesian model averaging to overcome problems associated with phenotype definition. Although Bayesian model averaging has been used in other fields of research, this is the first study that uses Bayesian model averaging to reconcile phenotypes obtained using multiple models. We illustrate the new method by applying it to simulated genetic and phenotypic data for Kofendred personality disorder-an imaginary disease with several sub-types. Two separate statistical methods were used to identify clusters of individuals with distinct phenotypes: latent class analysis and grade of membership. Bayesian model averaging was then used to combine the two clusterings for the purpose of subsequent linkage analyses. We found that causative genetic loci for the disease produced higher LOD scores using model averaging than under either individual model separately. We attribute this improvement to consolidation of the cores of phenotype clusters identified using each individual method.
Non-parametric Bayesian graph models reveal community structure in resting state fMRI

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Kasper Winther; Madsen, Kristoffer H.; Siebner, Hartwig Roman

2014-01-01

Modeling of resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data using network models is of increasing interest. It is often desirable to group nodes into clusters to interpret the communication patterns between nodes. In this study we consider three different nonparametric Bayesian...... models for node clustering in complex networks. In particular, we test their ability to predict unseen data and their ability to reproduce clustering across datasets. The three generative models considered are the Infinite Relational Model (IRM), Bayesian Community Detection (BCD), and the Infinite...... between clusters. BCD restricts the between-cluster link probabilities to be strictly lower than within-cluster link probabilities to conform to the community structure typically seen in social networks. IDM only models a single between-cluster link probability, which can be interpreted as a background...
Modeling the Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia as an Equipotential Surface of Earth's Gravity Field

Science.gov (United States)

Borsa, Adrian; Bills, Bruce

2004-01-01

The salar de Uyuni is a massive dry salt lake that lies at the lowest point of an internal/drainage basin in the Bolivian Altiplano. Its topography is remarkable for its extraordinary flatness over almost a full degree of latitude and longitude. We surveyed a 54 x 45 km region of the salar with kinematic GPS in September, 2002 and found a topographic range of only 80 cm over the entire surveyed area. Furthermore, the survey revealed distinct surface features with several dominant wavelengths and orientations. Some of these appear to be aligned with orographic features that intersect the salar, leading us to conjecture that they are the surface expression of high-density mountains that have been buried by low-density basin sediments. Over the oceans, a similar correspondence between basin bathymetry and surface topography is exploited to map the seafloor using sea-surface satellite altimetry measurements, with the sea surface following geoid undulations due to the underwater mass distribution. On the salar, annual flooding creates a shallow lake whose surface also lies on a equipotential surface shaped by the distribution of underlying mass. The link to the actual salar surface is via the dissolution and redeposition of salt by the lake waters, which appears to push the system to an equilibrium of constant water depth and the coincidence of the shapes of the lake surface and bottom. To test our hypothesis about the origin of the surface features on the salar, we compare our GPS survey elevations with the equipotential surface generated from local gravity measurements in conjunction with gravity and potential values from the EGM96 global geopotential model. 50% of the variance of the GPS elevations can be explained by equipotential surface undulations from the EGM96 model alone, and an additional 40% is explained by the shorter-wavelength equipotential surface derived from local gravity. We examine the unexplained 10% of elevation variance from the standpoint of
Hydrogeology of the lacustrine system of the eastern margin of the Salar the Atacama (Chile); Hidrogeologia del sistema lagunar del margen este del Salar de Atacama (Chile)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salas, J.; Guimera, J.; Cornella, O.; Aravena, R.; Guzman, E.; Tore, C.; von Igel, W.; Moreno, R.

2010-07-01

A hydrogeological conceptual model of the Eastern margin of the Salar de Atacama (Chile) is proposed taking into account climatic, geological, geomorphological, piezometric, chemical and isotopic data. The study establishes the processes that explain the hydrochemical evolution of waters from salty groundwater in the alluvial aquifer located in eastern part of basin until brines at the saline aquifer of the Salar. The main processes associated with this hydrochemical evolution are evaporation and mixing, but water-crust interaction in the discharge areas of the alluvial aquifer associated with the saline wedge also modifies groundwater composition, and plays a role in the dynamics of the evaporitic crusts in the Salar. The existence of low permeability materials near the surface explains the existence of the permanent surface water bodies in the study area. Based on the data collected in the study three different mechanisms are proposed regarding the main sources of water to the lagoons: (1) discharge of saline groundwater from the detrital and volcanic aquifers of the E margin, (2) discharge of surface waters associated to the N area (Burro Muerto channel), and (3) a combination of both previous mechanisms. (Author).
Clustering and Bayesian hierarchical modeling for the definition of informative prior distributions in hydrogeology

Science.gov (United States)

Cucchi, K.; Kawa, N.; Hesse, F.; Rubin, Y.

2017-12-01

In order to reduce uncertainty in the prediction of subsurface flow and transport processes, practitioners should use all data available. However, classic inverse modeling frameworks typically only make use of information contained in in-situ field measurements to provide estimates of hydrogeological parameters. Such hydrogeological information about an aquifer is difficult and costly to acquire. In this data-scarce context, the transfer of ex-situ information coming from previously investigated sites can be critical for improving predictions by better constraining the estimation procedure. Bayesian inverse modeling provides a coherent framework to represent such ex-situ information by virtue of the prior distribution and combine them with in-situ information from the target site. In this study, we present an innovative data-driven approach for defining such informative priors for hydrogeological parameters at the target site. Our approach consists in two steps, both relying on statistical and machine learning methods. The first step is data selection; it consists in selecting sites similar to the target site. We use clustering methods for selecting similar sites based on observable hydrogeological features. The second step is data assimilation; it consists in assimilating data from the selected similar sites into the informative prior. We use a Bayesian hierarchical model to account for inter-site variability and to allow for the assimilation of multiple types of site-specific data. We present the application and validation of the presented methods on an established database of hydrogeological parameters. Data and methods are implemented in the form of an open-source R-package and therefore facilitate easy use by other practitioners.
Geochemical evolution of brines in the Salar of Uyuni, Bolivia.

Science.gov (United States)

Rettig, S.L.; Jones, B.F.; Risacher, F.

1980-01-01

Recent analyses of brines from the Salars of Uyuni and Coipasa have been compared with published data for Lakes Titicaca and Poopo to evaluate solute compositional trends in these remnants of two large Pleistocene lakes once connected by overflow from the N to the S of the Bolivian Altiplano. From Titicaca to Poopo the water shows an increase in Cl and N somewhat greater than the total solutes. Ca and SO4 increase to a lesser extent than total dissolved solids, and carbonate species are relatively constant. Between Poopo and Coipasa proportions of Ca, SO4 and CO3 continue to decrease. At Coipasa and Uyuni, the great salars frequently evaporate to halite saturation. Halite crystallization is accompanied by an increased K, Mg and SO4 in residual brines. - from Authors
50 CFR 226.217 - Critical habitat for the Gulf of Maine Distinct Population Segment of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Distinct Population Segment of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar). 226.217 Section 226.217 Wildlife and... Distinct Population Segment of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar). Critical habitat is designated to include all... the Gulf of Maine Distinct Population Segment of Atlantic Salmon (GOM DPS), except for those...
Evaluating Mixture Modeling for Clustering: Recommendations and Cautions

Science.gov (United States)

Steinley, Douglas; Brusco, Michael J.

2011-01-01

This article provides a large-scale investigation into several of the properties of mixture-model clustering techniques (also referred to as latent class cluster analysis, latent profile analysis, model-based clustering, probabilistic clustering, Bayesian classification, unsupervised learning, and finite mixture models; see Vermunt & Magdison,…
Bayesian feature weighting for unsupervised learning, with application to object recognition

OpenAIRE

Carbonetto , Peter; De Freitas , Nando; Gustafson , Paul; Thompson , Natalie

2003-01-01

International audience; We present a method for variable selection/weighting in an unsupervised learning context using Bayesian shrinkage. The basis for the model parameters and cluster assignments can be computed simultaneous using an efficient EM algorithm. Applying our Bayesian shrinkage model to a complex problem in object recognition (Duygulu, Barnard, de Freitas and Forsyth 2002), our experiments yied good results.
Macroscopic Models of Clique Tree Growth for Bayesian Networks

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — In clique tree clustering, inference consists of propagation in a clique tree compiled from a Bayesian network. In this paper, we develop an analytical approach to...
Microbial diversity of the hypersaline and lithium-rich Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia.

Science.gov (United States)

Haferburg, Götz; Gröning, Janosch A D; Schmidt, Nadja; Kummer, Nicolai-Alexeji; Erquicia, Juan Carlos; Schlömann, Michael

2017-06-01

Salar de Uyuni, situated in the Southwest of the Bolivian Altiplano, is the largest salt flat on Earth. Brines of this athalassohaline hypersaline environment are rich in lithium and boron. Due to the ever- increasing commodity demand, the industrial exploitation of brines for metal recovery from the world's biggest lithium reservoir is likely to increase substantially in the near future. Studies on the composition of halophilic microbial communities in brines of the salar have not been published yet. Here we report for the first time on the prokaryotic diversity of four brine habitats across the salar. The brine is characterized by salinity values between 132 and 177 PSU, slightly acidic to near-neutral pH and lithium and boron concentrations of up to 2.0 and 1.4g/L, respectively. Community analysis was performed after sequencing the V3-V4 region of the 16S rRNA genes employing the Illumina MiSeq technology. The mothur software package was used for sequence processing and data analysis. Metagenomic analysis revealed the occurrence of an exclusively archaeal community comprising 26 halobacterial genera including only recently identified genera like Halapricum, Halorubellus and Salinarchaeum. Despite the high diversity of the halobacteria-dominated community in sample P3 (Shannon-Weaver index H'=3.12 at 3% OTU cutoff) almost 40% of the Halobacteriaceae-assigned sequences could not be classified on the genus level under stringent filtering conditions. Even if the limited taxonomic resolution of the V3-V4 region for halobacteria is considered, it seems likely to discover new, hitherto undescribed genera of the family halobacteriaceae in this particular habitat of Salar de Uyuni in future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
Evidence of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar fry movement between fresh water and a brackish environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Taal, I; Rohtla, M; Saks, L; Svirgsden, R; Kesler, M; Matetski, L; Vetemaa, M

2017-08-01

This study reports descent of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar fry from their natal streams to brackish waters of the Baltic Sea and their use of this environment as an alternative rearing habitat before ascending back to freshwater streams. To the authors' knowledge, residency in a brackish environment has not previously been demonstrated in S. salar fry. Recruitment success and evolutionary significance of this alternative life-history strategy are presently not known. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Predictability of multispecies competitive interactions in three populations of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Science.gov (United States)

Houde, A L S; Wilson, C C; Neff, B D

2015-04-01

Juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from three allopatric populations (LaHave, Sebago and Saint-Jean) were placed into artificial streams with combinations of four non-native salmonids: brown trout Salmo trutta, rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss, Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch. Non-additive effects, as evidenced by lower performance than predicted from weighted summed two-species competition trials, were detected for S. salar fork length (LF ) and mass, but not for survival, condition factor or riffle use. These data support emerging theory on niche overlap and species richness as factors that can lead to non-additive competition effects. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Spatial cluster detection using dynamic programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sverchkov Yuriy

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The task of spatial cluster detection involves finding spatial regions where some property deviates from the norm or the expected value. In a probabilistic setting this task can be expressed as finding a region where some event is significantly more likely than usual. Spatial cluster detection is of interest in fields such as biosurveillance, mining of astronomical data, military surveillance, and analysis of fMRI images. In almost all such applications we are interested both in the question of whether a cluster exists in the data, and if it exists, we are interested in finding the most accurate characterization of the cluster. Methods We present a general dynamic programming algorithm for grid-based spatial cluster detection. The algorithm can be used for both Bayesian maximum a-posteriori (MAP estimation of the most likely spatial distribution of clusters and Bayesian model averaging over a large space of spatial cluster distributions to compute the posterior probability of an unusual spatial clustering. The algorithm is explained and evaluated in the context of a biosurveillance application, specifically the detection and identification of Influenza outbreaks based on emergency department visits. A relatively simple underlying model is constructed for the purpose of evaluating the algorithm, and the algorithm is evaluated using the model and semi-synthetic test data. Results When compared to baseline methods, tests indicate that the new algorithm can improve MAP estimates under certain conditions: the greedy algorithm we compared our method to was found to be more sensitive to smaller outbreaks, while as the size of the outbreaks increases, in terms of area affected and proportion of individuals affected, our method overtakes the greedy algorithm in spatial precision and recall. The new algorithm performs on-par with baseline methods in the task of Bayesian model averaging. Conclusions We conclude that the dynamic
Dirichlet Process Parsimonious Mixtures for clustering

OpenAIRE

Chamroukhi, Faicel; Bartcus, Marius; Glotin, Hervé

2015-01-01

The parsimonious Gaussian mixture models, which exploit an eigenvalue decomposition of the group covariance matrices of the Gaussian mixture, have shown their success in particular in cluster analysis. Their estimation is in general performed by maximum likelihood estimation and has also been considered from a parametric Bayesian prospective. We propose new Dirichlet Process Parsimonious mixtures (DPPM) which represent a Bayesian nonparametric formulation of these parsimonious Gaussian mixtur...
Spatial cluster modelling

CERN Document Server

Lawson, Andrew B

2002-01-01

Research has generated a number of advances in methods for spatial cluster modelling in recent years, particularly in the area of Bayesian cluster modelling. Along with these advances has come an explosion of interest in the potential applications of this work, especially in epidemiology and genome research. In one integrated volume, this book reviews the state-of-the-art in spatial clustering and spatial cluster modelling, bringing together research and applications previously scattered throughout the literature. It begins with an overview of the field, then presents a series of chapters that illuminate the nature and purpose of cluster modelling within different application areas, including astrophysics, epidemiology, ecology, and imaging. The focus then shifts to methods, with discussions on point and object process modelling, perfect sampling of cluster processes, partitioning in space and space-time, spatial and spatio-temporal process modelling, nonparametric methods for clustering, and spatio-temporal ...
Effects of rearing density and dietary fat content on burst-swim performance and oxygen transport capacity in juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Science.gov (United States)

Hammenstig, D; Sandblom, E; Axelsson, M; Johnsson, J I

2014-10-01

The effects of hatchery rearing density (conventional or one third of conventional density) and feeding regime (high or reduced dietary fat levels) on burst-swim performance and oxygen transport capacity were studied in hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon Salmo salar, using wild fish as a reference group. There was no effect of rearing density or food regime on swimming performance in parr and smolts. The maximum swimming speed of wild parr was significantly higher than that of hatchery-reared conspecifics, while no such difference remained at the smolt stage. In smolts, relative ventricle mass was higher in wild S. salar compared with hatchery-reared fish. Moreover, wild S. salar had lower maximum oxygen consumption following a burst-swim challenge than hatchery fish. There were no effects of hatchery treatment on maximum oxygen consumption or relative ventricle mass. Haemoglobin and haematocrit levels, however, were lower in low-density fish than in fish reared at conventional density. Furthermore, dorsal-fin damage, an indicator of aggression, was similar in low-density reared and wild fish and lower than in S. salar reared at conventional density. Together, these results suggest that reduced rearing density is more important than reduced dietary fat levels in producing an S. salar smolt suitable for supplementary release. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Salar de Surire un ecosistema altoandino en peligro, frente a escenario del cambio climático

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ingrid Garcés

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Este trabajo realiza un análisis al salar de Surire desde el punto de vista de la biodiversidad y sus implicancias producto del cambio climático. Como resultado se predice que los próximos años serán secos y la temperatura podría ir en aumento, lo cual afectará notablemente a la flora y fauna del altiplano. El salar de Surire es un cuerpo salino ubicado en el altiplano andino chileno, en un entorno geológico de características volcánicas. La climatología actual de aridez no permite una acumulación de agua superficial de gran extensión, y por lo tanto es posible diferenciar tres tipos principales de aguas: los aportes de drenaje, las acumulaciones de agua en la aureola pantanosa externa o “bofedales”, y las aguas del interior del cuerpo salino (surgencias termales y salmueras. Estas condiciones hidrológicas afectan factores abióticos, como anaerobiosis de suelos, disposición de nutrientes y salinidad, factores determinantes del desarrollo de la flora y fauna. Palabras claves: Salar de Surire; Biodiversidad andina; Cambio climático; Ecosistema andino
Bayesian estimation of mixtures with dynamic transitions and known component parameters

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Nagy, I.; Suzdaleva, Evgenia; Kárný, Miroslav

2011-01-01

Roč. 47, č. 4 (2011), s. 572-594 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572; GA TA ČR TA01030123; GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Grant - others:Skoda Auto(CZ) ENS/2009/UTIA Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : mixture model * Bayesian estimation * approximation * clustering * classification Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 0.454, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/nagy-bayesian estimation of mixtures with dynamic transitions and known component parameters.pdf
Modeling the topography of the salar de Uyuni, Bolivia as an equipotential surface of Earth’s gravity field

OpenAIRE

Borsa, Adrian

2008-01-01

The salar de Uyuni is a massive dry salt lake that lies at the lowest point of an internal drainage basin in the Bolivian Altiplano. A kinematic GPS survey of the salar in September 2002 found a topographic range of only 80 cm over a 54 × 45 km area and subtle surface features that appeared to correlate with mapped gravity. In order to confirm the correlation between topography and gravity/geopotential, we use local gravity measurements and the EGM96 global geopotential model to construct a c...

Effects of feed quality and quantity on growth, early maturation and smolt development in hatchery-reared landlocked Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Science.gov (United States)

Norrgård, J R; Bergman, E; Greenberg, L A; Schmitz, M

2014-10-01

The effects of feed quality and quantity on growth, early male parr maturation and development of smolt characteristics were studied in hatchery-reared landlocked Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. The fish were subjected to two levels of feed rations and two levels of lipid content from first feeding until release in May of their second year. Salmo salar fed high rations, regardless of lipid content, grew the most and those fed low lipid feed with low rations grew the least. In addition, fish fed low lipid feed had lower body lipid levels than fish fed high lipid feed. Salmo salar from all treatments showed some reduction in condition factor (K) and lipid levels during their second spring. Smolt status was evaluated using both physiological and morphological variables. These results, based on gill Na(+) , K(+) -ATPase (NKA) enzyme activity, saltwater tolerance challenges and visual assessments, were consistent with each other, showing that S. salar from all treatments, except the treatment in which the fish were fed low rations with low lipid content, exhibited characteristics associated with smolting at 2 years of age. Sexually mature male parr from the high ration, high lipid content treatment were also subjected to saltwater challenge tests, and were found to be unable to regulate plasma sodium levels. The proportion of sexually mature male parr was reduced when the fish were fed low feed rations, but was not affected by the lipid content of the feed. Salmo salar fed low rations with low lipid content exhibited the highest degree of severe fin erosion. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Nódulos opalinos en facies marginales del salar Olaroz (Puna Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alonso, R.

1989-04-01

Full Text Available This article reports the results of a petrological and geochemical study of silica nodules from Quaternary alluvial fallS of the Olaroz Salar. The nodules are mainly constituted by C-T opal, d. (101 spacing to 4,11 A, implying a high-disorder; this is commonly observed in opa! rocks formed in near surface environments, without burial and heating. The chemical composition of the nodules is anomalous when compared with other typical silica-rocks formed in arid continental closed basin, without any eruptive environments (for instance the Cuenca del Tajo in Spain. The siliceous nodules do not have the characteristics of the silcretes and are not associated to the evaporitic facies of the salar. Their genesis is probably related to contamination of groundwater of the alluvial fan with high-silica thermal water. The C-T opal would thus precipitate by either displacing tbe terrigenous host-rock or replacing previous ulexite nodules.Se realiza un estudio petrológico y geoquímico de los nódulos silíceos que se encuentran incluidos en sedimentos terrígenos cuaternarios de la Cuenca de Olaroz (La Puna, Argentina. Estos nódulos se localizan en abanicos aluviales que aparecen encajados, debido a los cambios en el nivel de base que se produce desde el Pleistoceno a la actualidad, durante la evolución de los cuerpos lacustres a salares. Un estudio mediante DRX revela que son rocas constituidas por ópalo C-T, con un espaciado (101 a 4,11 A, que implica un grado de desorden alto, típico de las rocas silíceas formadas en superficie y que no han sufrido enterramiento ni influencia térmica. Su composición química es anómala si se compara con rocas silíceas continentales formadas en ambiente endorreico y fuera de un marco volcánico (Mioceno de la Cuenca del Tajo. No poseyendo características de silcretas y no estando asociadas a la sedimentación evaporítica de los salares, se considera la influencia de aguas termales. La contaminación local y en
Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....
Bayesian inference for Hawkes processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl

2013-01-01

The Hawkes process is a practically and theoretically important class of point processes, but parameter-estimation for such a process can pose various problems. In this paper we explore and compare two approaches to Bayesian inference. The first approach is based on the so-called conditional...... intensity function, while the second approach is based on an underlying clustering and branching structure in the Hawkes process. For practical use, MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) methods are employed. The two approaches are compared numerically using three examples of the Hawkes process....
Evidence for long-term change in length, mass and migration phenology of anadromous spawners in French Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Science.gov (United States)

Bal, G; Montorio, L; Rivot, E; Prévost, E; Baglinière, J-L; Nevoux, M

2017-06-01

This study provides new data on Atlantic salmon Salmo salar life-history traits across France. Using a long-term recreational angling database (1987-2013) covering 34 rivers in three regions (genetic units), a decline in individual length, mass and a delayed adult return to French rivers was reported. Temporal similarities in trait variations between regions may be attributed to common change in environmental conditions at sea. The relative rate of change in phenotypic traits was more pronounced in early maturing fish [1 sea-winter (1SW) fish] than in late maturing fish (2SW fish). Such contrasted response within populations highlights the need to account for the diversity in life histories when exploring mechanisms of phenotypic change in S. salar. Such detailed life-history data on returning S. salar have not previously been reported from France. This study on French populations also contributes to reducing the gap in knowledge by providing further empirical evidence of a global pattern in S. salar across its distribution range. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that the observed changes in life-history traits are primarily associated with environmental changes in the North Atlantic Ocean. They also emphasize the presence of less important, but still significant contrasts between region and life history. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Estrogen therapy offsets thermal impairment of vitellogenesis, but not zonagenesis, in maiden spawning female Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelli Anderson

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In female Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar, exposure to warm summer temperatures causes a reduction in plasma 17β-estradiol (E2, which impairs downstream vitellogenesis and zonagenesis, and reduces egg fertility and embryo survival. The aim of the present study was to determine whether E2-treatment could offset thermal impairment of endocrine function and maintain egg quality in maiden (first-time-spawning S. salar reared at 22 °C. Treatment with E2 at 22 °C stimulated vitellogenin (vtg gene expression and subsequent protein synthesis which promoted oocyte growth and increased egg size relative to untreated fish at 14 and 22 °C. However, E2-treatment at 22 °C was not associated with an increase in egg fertility and embryo survival relative to untreated fish at 22 °C, despite the positive effects of E2-treatment on vitellogenesis and oocyte growth. As there was no evidence to suggest that the estrogen receptor alpha expression was suppressed by high temperature, this could be due to the lack of stimulation on zonagenesis by E2-treatment observed at high temperature during oocyte development. Our results demonstrate that treatment with E2 is not able to maintain zonagenesis or egg quality in maiden S. salar at high temperature, even when vtg gene expression, protein synthesis and subsequent oocyte growth is promoted. This implies that the mechanisms regulating zonagenesis, but not vitellogenesis are impaired at elevated temperature in female S. salar broodstock, and highlights the remarkable complexity of thermally induced endocrine disruption in fish.
Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

CERN Document Server

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

2016-01-01

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...
Distribution by origin and sea age of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the sea around the Faroe Islands based on analysis of historical tag recoveries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Jan Arge; Hansen, Lars P.; Bakkestuen, Vegar

2012-01-01

Distribution by origin and sea age of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the sea around the Faroe Islands based on analysis of historical tag recoveries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: 1598–1608.A database of 2651 tags applied to Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts in 13 countries...
Divergent trends in life-history traits between Atlantic salmon Salmo salar of wild and hatchery origin in the Baltic Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Vainikka, A; Kallio-Nyberg, I; Heino, M; Koljonen, M-L

2010-02-01

Four Atlantic salmon Salmo salar stocks in the Baltic Sea, varying in their breeding history, were studied for changes in life-history traits over the years 1972-1995. Total length (L(T)) at age of captured (L(TC)) fish had increased throughout the study period, partly due to increased temperature and increased L(T) at release, (L(TR)) but also due to remaining cohort effects that could represent unaccounted environmental or genetic change. Simultaneously, maturation probabilities controlled for water temperature, L(TC) and L(TR) had increased in all stocks. The least change was observed in the River Tornionjoki S. salar that was subject only to supportive stockings originating from wild parents. These results suggest a long-term divergence between semi-natural and broodstock-based S. salar stocks. Increased L(T) at age explained advanced maturation only marginally, and it remains an open question to what extent the generally increased probabilities to mature at early age reflected underlying genetic changes.
The cylindrical K-function and Poisson line cluster point processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Jesper; Safavimanesh, Farzaneh; Rasmussen, Jakob G.

Poisson line cluster point processes, is also introduced. Parameter estimation based on moment methods or Bayesian inference for this model is discussed when the underlying Poisson line process and the cluster memberships are treated as hidden processes. To illustrate the methodologies, we analyze two...
Prediction of community prevalence of human onchocerciasis in the Amazonian onchocerciasis focus: Bayesian approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Carabin, Hélène; Escalona, Marisela; Marshall, Clare; Vivas-Martínez, Sarai; Botto, Carlos; Joseph, Lawrence; Basáñez, María-Gloria

2003-01-01

To develop a Bayesian hierarchical model for human onchocerciasis with which to explore the factors that influence prevalence of microfilariae in the Amazonian focus of onchocerciasis and predict the probability of any community being at least mesoendemic (>20% prevalence of microfilariae), and thus in need of priority ivermectin treatment. Models were developed with data from 732 individuals aged > or =15 years who lived in 29 Yanomami communities along four rivers of the south Venezuelan Orinoco basin. The models' abilities to predict prevalences of microfilariae in communities were compared. The deviance information criterion, Bayesian P-values, and residual values were used to select the best model with an approximate cross-validation procedure. A three-level model that acknowledged clustering of infection within communities performed best, with host age and sex included at the individual level, a river-dependent altitude effect at the community level, and additional clustering of communities along rivers. This model correctly classified 25/29 (86%) villages with respect to their need for priority ivermectin treatment. Bayesian methods are a flexible and useful approach for public health research and control planning. Our model acknowledges the clustering of infection within communities, allows investigation of links between individual- or community-specific characteristics and infection, incorporates additional uncertainty due to missing covariate data, and informs policy decisions by predicting the probability that a new community is at least mesoendemic.
The complete genome sequence of CrRV-Ch01, a new member of the family Rhabdoviridae in the parasitic copepod Caligus rogercresseyi present on farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Økland, Arnfinn Lodden; Skoge, Renate Hvidsten; Nylund, Are

2018-06-01

We have determined the complete genome sequence of a new rhabdovirus, tentatively named Caligus rogercresseyi rhabdovirus Ch01 (CrRV-Ch01), which was found in the parasite Caligus rogercresseyi, present on farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in Chile. The genome encodes the five canonical rhabdovirus proteins in addition to an unknown protein, in the order N-P-M-U (unknown)-G-L. Phylogenetic analysis showed that the virus clusters with two rhabdoviruses (Lepeophtheirus salmonis rhabdovirus No9 and Lepeophtheirus salmonis rhabdovirus No127) obtained from another parasitic caligid, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, present on farmed Atlantic salmon on the west coast of Norway.
Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2010-01-01

Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente
A microsatellite baseline for genetic stock identification of European Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gilbey, John; Coughlan, Jamie; Wennevik, Vidar

2018-01-01

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) populations from different river origins mix in the North Atlantic during the marine life stage. To facilitate marine stock identification, we developed a genetic baseline covering the European component of the species' range excluding the Baltic Sea, from the Rus...
Bayesian Graphical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2016-01-01

Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...
Genetic structure of European populations of Salmo salar L (Atlantic salmon) inferred from mitochondrial DNA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eg Nielsen, Einar; Hansen, Michael Møller; Loeschcke, V.

1996-01-01

The genetic relationships between the only natural population of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in Denmark and seven other European salmon populations were studied using RFLP analysis of PCR amplified mitochondrial DNA segments. Six different haplotypes were detected by restriction enzyme...
Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2003-01-01

As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.
Monitoreo geoquímico de un sistema evaporítico natural: salar de Huasco (Chile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ingrid Garcés Millas

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Se realizó un proceso de evaporación a escala de laboratorio con salmueras del Salar de Huasco, con el objeto de estudiar la pauta de evolución geoquímica y contrastarlo con el medio natural. La secuencia de precipitación obtenida fue calcita, yeso, thenardita y halita, minerales cuya presencia se comprobó mediante difractometría de rayos X. Estos resultados se corresponden con la sucesión de los estados de equilibrio que alcanzan las salmueras a lo largo de su progresiva concentración por evaporación, de acuerdo con los cálculos geoquímicos realizados con el código PHRQPITZ. La modelización geoquímica ha permitido comprobar que las situaciones de equilibrio se alcanzan en el dispositivo experimental en distintas etapas evolutivas a las observadas en el sistema natural. Este hecho se debe principalmente a dos factores, en primer lugar a la interacción de las soluciones diluidas de recarga del salar con la costra salina periférica rica en yeso, cuya disolución provoca alcanzar el equilibrio con esta fase mineralógica mucho antes en el sistema natural que en el laboratorio; y por otra, a la precipitación de mirabilita como consecuencia de las oscilaciones térmicas diarias, causantes de que el equilibrio con halita se alcance en el salar en una etapa evolutiva más avanzada que en el experimento, resultado del consumo de sodio, por precipitación de mirabilita.
A nonparametric Bayesian approach for clustering bisulfate-based DNA methylation profiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Lin; Meng, Jia; Liu, Hui; Huang, Yufei

2012-01-01

DNA methylation occurs in the context of a CpG dinucleotide. It is an important epigenetic modification, which can be inherited through cell division. The two major types of methylation include hypomethylation and hypermethylation. Unique methylation patterns have been shown to exist in diseases including various types of cancer. DNA methylation analysis promises to become a powerful tool in cancer diagnosis, treatment and prognostication. Large-scale methylation arrays are now available for studying methylation genome-wide. The Illumina methylation platform simultaneously measures cytosine methylation at more than 1500 CpG sites associated with over 800 cancer-related genes. Cluster analysis is often used to identify DNA methylation subgroups for prognosis and diagnosis. However, due to the unique non-Gaussian characteristics, traditional clustering methods may not be appropriate for DNA and methylation data, and the determination of optimal cluster number is still problematic. A Dirichlet process beta mixture model (DPBMM) is proposed that models the DNA methylation expressions as an infinite number of beta mixture distribution. The model allows automatic learning of the relevant parameters such as the cluster mixing proportion, the parameters of beta distribution for each cluster, and especially the number of potential clusters. Since the model is high dimensional and analytically intractable, we proposed a Gibbs sampling "no-gaps" solution for computing the posterior distributions, hence the estimates of the parameters. The proposed algorithm was tested on simulated data as well as methylation data from 55 Glioblastoma multiform (GBM) brain tissue samples. To reduce the computational burden due to the high data dimensionality, a dimension reduction method is adopted. The two GBM clusters yielded by DPBMM are based on data of different number of loci (P-value < 0.1), while hierarchical clustering cannot yield statistically significant clusters.
Fitting Latent Cluster Models for Networks with latentnet

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pavel N. Krivitsky

2007-12-01

Full Text Available latentnet is a package to fit and evaluate statistical latent position and cluster models for networks. Hoﬀ, Raftery, and Handcock (2002 suggested an approach to modeling networks based on positing the existence of an latent space of characteristics of the actors. Relationships form as a function of distances between these characteristics as well as functions of observed dyadic level covariates. In latentnet social distances are represented in a Euclidean space. It also includes a variant of the extension of the latent position model to allow for clustering of the positions developed in Handcock, Raftery, and Tantrum (2007.The package implements Bayesian inference for the models based on an Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. It can also compute maximum likelihood estimates for the latent position model and a two-stage maximum likelihood method for the latent position cluster model. For latent position cluster models, the package provides a Bayesian way of assessing how many groups there are, and thus whether or not there is any clustering (since if the preferred number of groups is 1, there is little evidence for clustering. It also estimates which cluster each actor belongs to. These estimates are probabilistic, and provide the probability of each actor belonging to each cluster. It computes four types of point estimates for the coefficients and positions: maximum likelihood estimate, posterior mean, posterior mode and the estimator which minimizes Kullback-Leibler divergence from the posterior. You can assess the goodness-of-fit of the model via posterior predictive checks. It has a function to simulate networks from a latent position or latent position cluster model.

Differential effects of mercurial compounds on the electroolfactogram (EOG) of salmon (Salmo salar L.)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Baatrup, E; Døving, K B; Winberg, S

1991-01-01

The effects on the salmon (Salmo salar L.) electroolfactogram (EOG) of the two mercurials, mercuric chloride (HgCl2) and methylmercuric chloride (CH3HgCl), were studied. The EOG responses were evoked by stimulating the olfactory epithelium with 340 microM L-alanine for 10 sec every second minute...
Genetic structure and admixture between Bayash Roma from northwestern Croatia and general Croatian population: evidence from Bayesian clustering analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Novokmet, Natalija; Galov, Ana; Marjanović, Damir; Škaro, Vedrana; Projić, Petar; Lauc, Gordan; Primorac, Dragan; Rudan, Pavao

2015-01-01

The European Roma represent a transnational mosaic of minority population groups with different migration histories and contrasting experiences in their interactions with majority populations across the European continent. Although historical genetic contributions of European lineages to the Roma pool were investigated before, the extent of contemporary genetic admixture between Bayash Roma and non-Romani majority population remains elusive. The aim of this study was to assess the genetic structure of the Bayash Roma population from northwestern Croatia and the general Croatian population and to investigate the extent of admixture between them. A set of genetic data from two original studies (100 Bayash Roma from northwestern Croatia and 195 individuals from the general Croatian population) was analyzed by Bayesian clustering implemented in STRUCTURE software. By re-analyzing published data we intended to focus for the first time on genetic differentiation and structure and in doing so we clearly pointed to the importance of considering social phenomena in understanding genetic structuring. Our results demonstrated that two population clusters best explain the genetic structure, which is consistent with social exclusion of Roma and the demographic history of Bayash Roma who have settled in NW Croatia only about 150 years ago and mostly applied rules of endogamy. The presence of admixture was revealed, while the percentage of non-Croatian individuals in general Croatian population was approximately twofold higher than the percentage of non-Romani individuals in Roma population corroborating the presence of ethnomimicry in Roma.
Representing Degree Distributions, Clustering, and Homophily in Social Networks With Latent Cluster Random Effects Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Krivitsky, Pavel N; Handcock, Mark S; Raftery, Adrian E; Hoff, Peter D

2009-07-01

Social network data often involve transitivity, homophily on observed attributes, clustering, and heterogeneity of actor degrees. We propose a latent cluster random effects model to represent all of these features, and we describe a Bayesian estimation method for it. The model is applicable to both binary and non-binary network data. We illustrate the model using two real datasets. We also apply it to two simulated network datasets with the same, highly skewed, degree distribution, but very different network behavior: one unstructured and the other with transitivity and clustering. Models based on degree distributions, such as scale-free, preferential attachment and power-law models, cannot distinguish between these very different situations, but our model does.
Bayesian Mediation Analysis

OpenAIRE

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...
Introduction to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2017-01-01

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...
A bayesian approach to inferring the genetic population structure of sugarcane accessions from INTA (Argentina

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Inés Pocovi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Understanding the population structure and genetic diversity in sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L. accessions from INTA germplasm bank (Argentina will be of great importance for germplasm collection and breeding improvement as it will identify diverse parental combinations to create segregating progenies with maximum genetic variability for further selection. A Bayesian approach, ordination methods (PCoA, Principal Coordinate Analysis and clustering analysis (UPGMA, Unweighted Pair Group Method with Arithmetic Mean were applied to this purpose. Sixty three INTA sugarcane hybrids were genotyped for 107 Simple Sequence Repeat (SSR and 136 Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP loci. Given the low probability values found with AFLP for individual assignment (4.7%, microsatellites seemed to perform better (54% for STRUCTURE analysis that revealed the germplasm to exist in five optimum groups with partly corresponding to their origin. However clusters shown high degree of admixture, F ST values confirmed the existence of differences among groups. Dissimilarity coefficients ranged from 0.079 to 0.651. PCoA separated sugarcane in groups that did not agree with those identified by STRUCTURE. The clustering including all genotypes neither showed resemblance to populations find by STRUCTURE, but clustering performed considering only individuals displaying a proportional membership > 0.6 in their primary population obtained with STRUCTURE showed close similarities. The Bayesian method indubitably brought more information on cultivar origins than classical PCoA and hierarchical clustering method.
Probing dark energy via galaxy cluster outskirts

Science.gov (United States)

Morandi, Andrea; Sun, Ming

2016-04-01

We present a Bayesian approach to combine Planck data and the X-ray physical properties of the intracluster medium in the virialization region of a sample of 320 galaxy clusters (0.056 definition of cluster boundary radius is more tenable, namely based on a fixed overdensity with respect to the critical density of the Universe. This novel cosmological test has the capacity to provide a generational leap forward in our understanding of the equation of state of dark energy.
Proteolysis in salmon ( Salmo salar ) during cold storage : Effects of storage time and smoking process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, K.E.; Nielsen, Henrik Hauch

2001-01-01

Changes in free amino acids (FAAs), small peptides and myofibrillar proteins were investigated in salmon (Salmo salar) muscle stored at OC for up to 23 days and after the stored salmon was smoked. Storage time and smoking process did not increase the formation of FAAs and small peptides indicating...
Seasonal shift in the effects of predators on juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) energetics

Science.gov (United States)

Darren M. Ward; Keith H. Nislow; Carol L. Folt; James Grant

2011-01-01

Predator effects on prey populations are determined by the number of prey consumed and effects on the traits of surviving prey. Yet the effects of predators on prey traits are rarely evaluated in field studies. We measured the effects of predators on energetic traits (consumption and growth rates) of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in a...
Movements of two strains of radio tagged Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., smolts through a reservoir

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aarestrup, Kim; Jepsen, Niels; Rasmusssen, Gorm

1999-01-01

Smolt migration through a shallow and turbid hydro-reservoir in a major Danish river system was investigated using radiotelemetry. Hatchery-reared 1+-year-old Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., smolts of equal size from two different non- native strains were radio-tagged and followed during...
Bayesian biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2012-01-01

The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd
Cluster consensus in discrete-time networks of multiagents with inter-cluster nonidentical inputs.

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Yujuan; Lu, Wenlian; Chen, Tianping

2013-04-01

In this paper, cluster consensus of multiagent systems is studied via inter-cluster nonidentical inputs. Here, we consider general graph topologies, which might be time-varying. The cluster consensus is defined by two aspects: intracluster synchronization, the state at which differences between each pair of agents in the same cluster converge to zero, and inter-cluster separation, the state at which agents in different clusters are separated. For intra-cluster synchronization, the concepts and theories of consensus, including the spanning trees, scramblingness, infinite stochastic matrix product, and Hajnal inequality, are extended. As a result, it is proved that if the graph has cluster spanning trees and all vertices self-linked, then the static linear system can realize intra-cluster synchronization. For the time-varying coupling cases, it is proved that if there exists T > 0 such that the union graph across any T-length time interval has cluster spanning trees and all graphs has all vertices self-linked, then the time-varying linear system can also realize intra-cluster synchronization. Under the assumption of common inter-cluster influence, a sort of inter-cluster nonidentical inputs are utilized to realize inter-cluster separation, such that each agent in the same cluster receives the same inputs and agents in different clusters have different inputs. In addition, the boundedness of the infinite sum of the inputs can guarantee the boundedness of the trajectory. As an application, we employ a modified non-Bayesian social learning model to illustrate the effectiveness of our results.
Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.
How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

2013-01-01

Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science
Epithelial Label-Retaining Cells Are Absent during Tooth Cycling in Salmo salar and Polypterus senegalus.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sam Vandenplas

Full Text Available The Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar and African bichir (Polypterus senegalus are both actinopterygian fish species that continuously replace their teeth without the involvement of a successional dental lamina. Instead, they share the presence of a middle dental epithelium: an epithelial tier enclosed by inner and outer dental epithelium. It has been hypothesized that this tier could functionally substitute for a successional dental lamina and might be a potential niche to house epithelial stem cells involved in tooth cycling. Therefore, in this study we performed a BrdU pulse chase experiment on both species to (1 determine the localization and extent of proliferating cells in the dental epithelial layers, (2 describe cell dynamics and (3 investigate if label-retaining cells are present, suggestive for the putative presence of stem cells. Cells proliferate in the middle dental epithelium, outer dental epithelium and cervical loop at the lingual side of the dental organ to form a new tooth germ. Using long chase times, both in S. salar (eight weeks and P. senegalus (eight weeks and twelve weeks, we could not reveal the presence of label-retaining cells in the dental organ. Immunostaining of P. senegalus dental organs for the transcription factor Sox2, often used as a stem cell marker, labelled cells in the zone of outer dental epithelium which grades into the oral epithelium (ODE transition zone and the inner dental epithelium of a successor only. The location of Sox2 distribution does not provide evidence for epithelial stem cells in the dental organ and, more specifically, in the middle dental epithelium. Comparison of S. salar and P. senegalus reveals shared traits in tooth cycling and thus advances our understanding of the developmental mechanism that ensures lifelong replacement.
Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.
Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

Science.gov (United States)

Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

2010-09-01

A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.
Consistent melanophore spot patterns allow long-term individual recognition of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Science.gov (United States)

Stien, L H; Nilsson, J; Bui, S; Fosseidengen, J E; Kristiansen, T S; Øverli, Ø; Folkedal, O

2017-12-01

The present study shows that permanent melanophore spot patterns in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar make it possible to use images of the operculum to keep track of individual fish over extended periods of their life history. Post-smolt S. salar (n = 246) were initially photographed at an average mass of 98 g and again 10 months later after rearing in a sea cage, at an average mass of 3088 g. Spots that were present initially remained and were the most overt (largest) 10 months later, while new and less overt spots had developed. Visual recognition of spot size and position showed that fish with at least four initial spots were relatively easy to identify, while identifying fish with less than four spots could be challenging. An automatic image analysis method was developed and shows potential for fast match processing of large numbers of fish. The current findings promote visual recognition of opercular spots as a welfare-friendly alternative to tagging in experiments involving salmonid fishes. © The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Bayesian methods for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Carlin, Bradley P.

2009-01-01

Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors
A free-living amoeba with unusual pattern of mitochondrial structure isolated from Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dyková, Iva; Veverková, Marie; Fiala, Ivan; Macháčková, Blanka

2002-01-01

Roč. 41, - (2002), s. 415-419 ISSN 0065-1583 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA6022202 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6022909 Keywords : free-living amoeba * mitochondrial cristae * Salmo salar Subject RIV: EA - Cell Biology Impact factor: 0.446, year: 2002

Counting and confusion: Bayesian rate estimation with multiple populations

Science.gov (United States)

Farr, Will M.; Gair, Jonathan R.; Mandel, Ilya; Cutler, Curt

2015-01-01

We show how to obtain a Bayesian estimate of the rates or numbers of signal and background events from a set of events when the shapes of the signal and background distributions are known, can be estimated, or approximated; our method works well even if the foreground and background event distributions overlap significantly and the nature of any individual event cannot be determined with any certainty. We give examples of determining the rates of gravitational-wave events in the presence of background triggers from a template bank when noise parameters are known and/or can be fit from the trigger data. We also give an example of determining globular-cluster shape, location, and density from an observation of a stellar field that contains a nonuniform background density of stars superimposed on the cluster stars.
Systemic granuloma observed in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar raised to market size in a freshwater recirculation aquaculture system

Science.gov (United States)

Systemic granuloma was observed in sampled adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar raised to harvest size in a freshwater recirculation aquaculture system. The prevalence of this condition was estimated at 10-20% of the population, with affected individuals grossly demonstrating pathology in varying degre...
Bayesian benefits with JASP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian
Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

CERN Document Server

Ntzoufras, Ioannis

2009-01-01

A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...
Evaluating Spatial Variability in Sediment and Phosphorus Concentration-Discharge Relationships Using Bayesian Inference and Self-Organizing Maps

Science.gov (United States)

Underwood, Kristen L.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Schroth, Andrew W.; Dewoolkar, Mandar M.

2017-12-01

Given the variable biogeochemical, physical, and hydrological processes driving fluvial sediment and nutrient export, the water science and management communities need data-driven methods to identify regions prone to production and transport under variable hydrometeorological conditions. We use Bayesian analysis to segment concentration-discharge linear regression models for total suspended solids (TSS) and particulate and dissolved phosphorus (PP, DP) using 22 years of monitoring data from 18 Lake Champlain watersheds. Bayesian inference was leveraged to estimate segmented regression model parameters and identify threshold position. The identified threshold positions demonstrated a considerable range below and above the median discharge—which has been used previously as the default breakpoint in segmented regression models to discern differences between pre and post-threshold export regimes. We then applied a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which partitioned the watersheds into clusters of TSS, PP, and DP export regimes using watershed characteristics, as well as Bayesian regression intercepts and slopes. A SOM defined two clusters of high-flux basins, one where PP flux was predominantly episodic and hydrologically driven; and another in which the sediment and nutrient sourcing and mobilization were more bimodal, resulting from both hydrologic processes at post-threshold discharges and reactive processes (e.g., nutrient cycling or lateral/vertical exchanges of fine sediment) at prethreshold discharges. A separate DP SOM defined two high-flux clusters exhibiting a bimodal concentration-discharge response, but driven by differing land use. Our novel framework shows promise as a tool with broad management application that provides insights into landscape drivers of riverine solute and sediment export.
Robustifying Bayesian nonparametric mixtures for count data.

Science.gov (United States)

Canale, Antonio; Prünster, Igor

2017-03-01

Our motivating application stems from surveys of natural populations and is characterized by large spatial heterogeneity in the counts, which makes parametric approaches to modeling local animal abundance too restrictive. We adopt a Bayesian nonparametric approach based on mixture models and innovate with respect to popular Dirichlet process mixture of Poisson kernels by increasing the model flexibility at the level both of the kernel and the nonparametric mixing measure. This allows to derive accurate and robust estimates of the distribution of local animal abundance and of the corresponding clusters. The application and a simulation study for different scenarios yield also some general methodological implications. Adding flexibility solely at the level of the mixing measure does not improve inferences, since its impact is severely limited by the rigidity of the Poisson kernel with considerable consequences in terms of bias. However, once a kernel more flexible than the Poisson is chosen, inferences can be robustified by choosing a prior more general than the Dirichlet process. Therefore, to improve the performance of Bayesian nonparametric mixtures for count data one has to enrich the model simultaneously at both levels, the kernel and the mixing measure. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
Photoperiod control of downstream movements of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts

Science.gov (United States)

Zydlewski, Gayle B.; Stich, Daniel S.; McCormick, Stephen D.

2014-01-01

This study provides the first direct observations that photoperiod controls the initiation of downstream movement in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar smolts. Under simulated natural day length (LDN) conditions and seasonal increases in temperature, smolts increased their downstream movements five-fold for a period of 1 month in late spring. Under the same conditions, parr did not show changes in downstream movement behaviour. When given a shortened day length (10L:14D) beginning in late winter, smolts did not increase the number of downstream movements. An early increase in day length (16L:8D) in late winter resulted in earlier initiation and termination of downstream movements compared to the LDN group. Physiological status and behaviour were related but not completely coincident: gill Na+/K+-ATPase activity increased in all treatments and thyroid hormone was elevated prior to movement in 16L:8D treatment. The most parsimonious model describing downstream movement of smolts included synergistic effects of photoperiod treatment and temperature, indicating that peak movements occurred at colder temperatures in the 16L:8D treatment than in LDN, and temperature did not influence movement of smolts in the 10L:14D treatment. The complicated interactions of photoperiod and temperature are not surprising since many organisms have evolved to rely on correlations among environmental cues and windows of opportunity to time behaviours associated with life-history transitions. These complicated interactions, however, have serious implications for phenological adjustments and persistence ofS. salar populations in response to climate change.
Capabilities of R Package mixAK for Clustering Based on Multivariate Continuous and Discrete Longitudinal Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnot Komárek

2014-09-01

Full Text Available R package mixAK originally implemented routines primarily for Bayesian estimation of finite normal mixture models for possibly interval-censored data. The functionality of the package was considerably enhanced by implementing methods for Bayesian estimation of mixtures of multivariate generalized linear mixed models proposed in Komrek and Komrkov (2013. Among other things, this allows for a cluster analysis (classification based on multivariate continuous and discrete longitudinal data that arise whenever multiple outcomes of a different nature are recorded in a longitudinal study. This package also allows for a data-driven selection of a number of clusters as methods for selecting a number of mixture components were implemented. A model and clustering methodology for multivariate continuous and discrete longitudinal data is overviewed. Further, a step-by-step cluster analysis based jointly on three longitudinal variables of different types (continuous, count, dichotomous is given, which provides a user manual for using the package for similar problems.
Bayesian optimization for materials science

CERN Document Server

Packwood, Daniel

2017-01-01

This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...
Quantification of vitellogenin in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) plasma by radioimmunoassay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Idler, D.R.; Hwang, S.J.; Crim, L.W.

1979-01-01

An antibody prepared against salmon egg yolk proteins has been used to quantify Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) plasma vitellogenin using radioimmunoassay. A low molecular weight fraction isolated from salmon egg yolk was used for radioiodination and as standard solution because plasma vitellogenin could not be iodinated successfully. Parallelism of the egg yolk standard to displacement given by a fraction isolated from vitellogenic salmon plasma and dilutions of plasma samples allowed the assay to be used to evaluate the state of gonadal development of migrating females several months in advance of spawning and for sexing relatively immature salmon. (author)
Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2011-01-01

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic
Bayesian statistics an introduction

CERN Document Server

Lee, Peter M

2012-01-01

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel
Bayesian networks with examples in R

CERN Document Server

Scutari, Marco

2014-01-01

Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.
A quantitative history of precipitation and hydrologic variability for the last 45 ka: Lake Titicaca, Salar de Coipasa and Salar de Uyuni, Peru and Bolivia

Science.gov (United States)

Nunnery, A.; Baker, P. A.; Coe, M. T.; Fritz, S. C.; Rigsby, C. A.

2011-12-01

Precipitation on the Bolivian/Peruvian Altiplano is dominantly controlled by the South American summer Monsoon (SASM). Over long timescales moisture transport to the Altiplano by the SASM fluctuates in intensity due to precessional insolation forcing as well as teleconnections to millennial scale abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic. These long-term changes in moisture transport have been observed in multiple paleoclimate and paleo-lake level records as advances and retreats of large lakes in the terminal basin (the Salar de Uyuni). Several previous studies using energy/water balance models have been applied to paleoclimate records in attempts to provide quantitative constraints on past precipitation and temperature (P and T). For example, Blodgett et al. concluded that high paleolake stands, first dated at ca. 16,000 cal. yr BP, required P 20% higher and T 5°C colder than modern. We expand on this work conducting two experiments. The first uses a latitudinal paleohydrologic profile to reconstruct hydrological history. The second uses a terrestrial hydrology model (THMB) to "predict" lake level given changes in P and T. The profile is constructed using records from Lake Titicaca (LT), Salar de Coipasa (SC) and Salar de Uyuni (SU). LT carbonate and diatom records indicate a deep, overflowing lake for much of the last 100 ka with a distinct dry, closed-basin phase in the early to mid Holocene. A continuous sediment core from SC indicates lake level fluctuations between deep and shallow phases for the last 45 ka. A natural gamma radiation log from SU, where large paleolakes alternated with shallow salt pans characteristic of drier and/or warmer periods, shows alternation between wet and dry phases through time. These three records give evidence to the complex nature of Altiplano hydrology, most notably the ability to sustain lakes in the SC basin while exhibiting dry conditions in SU. For the second experiment, THMB, which estimates water balance and
Electricity Purchase Optimization Decision Based on Data Mining and Bayesian Game

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yajing Gao

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The openness of the electricity retail market results in the power retailers facing fierce competition in the market. This article aims to analyze the electricity purchase optimization decision-making of each power retailer with the background of the big data era. First, in order to guide the power retailer to make a purchase of electricity, this paper considers the users’ historical electricity consumption data and a comprehensive consideration of multiple factors, then uses the wavelet neural network (WNN model based on “meteorological similarity day (MSD” to forecast the user load demand. Second, in order to guide the quotation of the power retailer, this paper considers the multiple factors affecting the electricity price to cluster the sample set, and establishes a Genetic algorithm- back propagation (GA-BP neural network model based on fuzzy clustering (FC to predict the short-term market clearing price (MCP. Thirdly, based on Sealed-bid Auction (SA in game theory, a Bayesian Game Model (BGM of the power retailer’s bidding strategy is constructed, and the optimal bidding strategy is obtained by obtaining the Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE under different probability distributions. Finally, a practical example is proposed to prove that the model and method can provide an effective reference for the decision-making optimization of the sales company.
Bayesian Mediation Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…
Statistical analysis using the Bayesian nonparametric method for irradiation embrittlement of reactor pressure vessels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takamizawa, Hisashi, E-mail: takamizawa.hisashi@jaea.go.jp; Itoh, Hiroto, E-mail: ito.hiroto@jaea.go.jp; Nishiyama, Yutaka, E-mail: nishiyama.yutaka93@jaea.go.jp

2016-10-15

In order to understand neutron irradiation embrittlement in high fluence regions, statistical analysis using the Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) method was performed for the Japanese surveillance and material test reactor irradiation database. The BNP method is essentially expressed as an infinite summation of normal distributions, with input data being subdivided into clusters with identical statistical parameters, such as mean and standard deviation, for each cluster to estimate shifts in ductile-to-brittle transition temperature (DBTT). The clusters typically depend on chemical compositions, irradiation conditions, and the irradiation embrittlement. Specific variables contributing to the irradiation embrittlement include the content of Cu, Ni, P, Si, and Mn in the pressure vessel steels, neutron flux, neutron fluence, and irradiation temperatures. It was found that the measured shifts of DBTT correlated well with the calculated ones. Data associated with the same materials were subdivided into the same clusters even if neutron fluences were increased.
DPpackage: Bayesian Semi- and Nonparametric Modeling in R

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alejandro Jara

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Data analysis sometimes requires the relaxation of parametric assumptions in order to gain modeling flexibility and robustness against mis-specification of the probability model. In the Bayesian context, this is accomplished by placing a prior distribution on a function space, such as the space of all probability distributions or the space of all regression functions. Unfortunately, posterior distributions ranging over function spaces are highly complex and hence sampling methods play a key role. This paper provides an introduction to a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of some Bayesian nonparametric and semiparametric models in R, DPpackage. Currently, DPpackage includes models for marginal and conditional density estimation, receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, interval-censored data, binary regression data, item response data, longitudinal and clustered data using generalized linear mixed models, and regression data using generalized additive models. The package also contains functions to compute pseudo-Bayes factors for model comparison and for eliciting the precision parameter of the Dirichlet process prior, and a general purpose Metropolis sampling algorithm. To maximize computational efficiency, the actual sampling for each model is carried out using compiled C, C++ or Fortran code.
Bayesian semiparametric regression models to characterize molecular evolution

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Datta Saheli

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical models and methods that associate changes in the physicochemical properties of amino acids with natural selection at the molecular level typically do not take into account the correlations between such properties. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical regression model with a generalization of the Dirichlet process prior on the distribution of the regression coefficients that describes the relationship between the changes in amino acid distances and natural selection in protein-coding DNA sequence alignments. Results The Bayesian semiparametric approach is illustrated with simulated data and the abalone lysin sperm data. Our method identifies groups of properties which, for this particular dataset, have a similar effect on evolution. The model also provides nonparametric site-specific estimates for the strength of conservation of these properties. Conclusions The model described here is distinguished by its ability to handle a large number of amino acid properties simultaneously, while taking into account that such data can be correlated. The multi-level clustering ability of the model allows for appealing interpretations of the results in terms of properties that are roughly equivalent from the standpoint of molecular evolution.
Assessing groundwater recharge in an Andean closed basin using isotopic characterization and a rainfall-runoff model: Salar del Huasco basin, Chile

Science.gov (United States)

Uribe, Javier; Muñoz, José F.; Gironás, Jorge; Oyarzún, Ricardo; Aguirre, Evelyn; Aravena, Ramón

2015-11-01

Closed basins are catchments whose drainage networks converge to lakes, salt flats or alluvial plains. Salt flats in the closed basins in arid northern Chile are extremely important ecological niches. The Salar del Huasco, one of these salt flats located in the high plateau (Altiplano), is a Ramsar site located in a national park and is composed of a wetland ecosystem rich in biodiversity. The proper management of the groundwater, which is essential for the wetland function, requires accurate estimates of recharge in the Salar del Huasco basin. This study quantifies the spatio-temporal distribution of the recharge, through combined use of isotopic characterization of the different components of the water cycle and a rainfall-runoff model. The use of both methodologies aids the understanding of hydrological behavior of the basin and enabled estimation of a long-term average recharge of 22 mm/yr (i.e., 15 % of the annual rainfall). Recharge has a high spatial variability, controlled by the geological and hydrometeorological characteristics of the basin, and a high interannual variability, with values ranging from 18 to 26 mm/yr. The isotopic approach allowed not only the definition of the conceptual model used in the hydrological model, but also eliminated the possibility of a hydrogeological connection between the aquifer of the Salar del Huasco basin and the aquifer that feeds the springs of the nearby town of Pica. This potential connection has been an issue of great interest to agriculture and tourism activities in the region.

Sulphated glycosaminoglycans and proteoglycans in the developing vertebral column of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

OpenAIRE

Hannesson, Kirsten O.; Ytteborg, Elisabeth; Takle, Harald; Enersen, Grethe; B?verfjord, Grete; Pedersen, Mona E.

2015-01-01

In the present study, the distribution of sulphated glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) in the developing vertebral column of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) at 700, 900, 1100 and 1400?d? was examined by light microscopy. The mineralization pattern was outlined by Alizarin red S and soft structures by Alcian blue. The temporal and spatial distribution patterns of different types of GAGs: chondroitin-4-sulphate/dermatan sulphate, chondroitin-6-sulphate, chondroitin-0-sulphate and keratan sulphate were add...
Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

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Asad Ali

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.
The effects of ozonation on select waterborne steroid hormones in recirculation aquaculture systems containing sexually mature Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

Science.gov (United States)

A controlled 3-month study was conducted in 6 replicated water recirculation aquaculture systems (RAS) containing a mixture of sexually mature and immature Atlantic salmon Salmo salar to determine whether water ozonation is associated with a reduction in waterborne hormones. Post-smolt Atlantic salm...
Clinical Outcome Prediction in Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Using Bayesian Neural Networks with Fuzzy Logic Inferences

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Benjamin W. Y. Lo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. The novel clinical prediction approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences is created and applied to derive prognostic decision rules in cerebral aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH. Methods. The approach of Bayesian neural networks with fuzzy logic inferences was applied to data from five trials of Tirilazad for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (3551 patients. Results. Bayesian meta-analyses of observational studies on aSAH prognostic factors gave generalizable posterior distributions of population mean log odd ratios (ORs. Similar trends were noted in Bayesian and linear regression ORs. Significant outcome predictors include normal motor response, cerebral infarction, history of myocardial infarction, cerebral edema, history of diabetes mellitus, fever on day 8, prior subarachnoid hemorrhage, admission angiographic vasospasm, neurological grade, intraventricular hemorrhage, ruptured aneurysm size, history of hypertension, vasospasm day, age and mean arterial pressure. Heteroscedasticity was present in the nontransformed dataset. Artificial neural networks found nonlinear relationships with 11 hidden variables in 1 layer, using the multilayer perceptron model. Fuzzy logic decision rules (centroid defuzzification technique denoted cut-off points for poor prognosis at greater than 2.5 clusters. Discussion. This aSAH prognostic system makes use of existing knowledge, recognizes unknown areas, incorporates one's clinical reasoning, and compensates for uncertainty in prognostication.
Evaluation of the hydrogeological interconnection between the Salar de Maricunga and the Piedra Pomez basins, Atacama Region, Chile; An isotope and geochemical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iriarte, S.; Santibanez, I; Aravena, R

2001-01-01

Groundwater is the main water source for the mining industry in the Altiplano of northern Chile. Groundwater also plays a significant role as a water source for lagoons, wetlands and salares, which are important ecosystems for animal life and vegetation communities that exist in this arid region. The rational use and protection of the groundwater resource requires a good understanding of the aquifer systems. One of the key components in the assessment of water resources in Northern Chile, is the hydrogeological interconnection between basins. During the last three years, as part of a major hydrogeological project, Sernageomin has been working in the Altiplano of the Atacama region (Iriarte et al., 1998; Iriarte, 1999; Venegas et al., 2000; Santibanez, in prep.). This study included the evaluation of the geometry and groundwater potential of the aquifers and the chemical characterization of the surface and groundwater. Part of this study has focused on the Salar de Maricunga and the Campo de Piedra Pomez basins, due to an increasing demand for groundwater resources in this area by the mining industry. This paper discusses the use of isotope and geochemical tools that were used to evaluate the hydrogeological interconnection between the Salar de Maricunga and the Piedra Pomez basins. The geological and hydrogeological framework of this work is discussed in detail by Iriarte (1999) (au)
Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

2004-09-01

ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.
Two step estimation for Neyman-Scott point process with inhomogeneous cluster centers

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Mrkvička, T.; Muška, Milan; Kubečka, Jan

2014-01-01

Roč. 24, č. 1 (2014), s. 91-100 ISSN 0960-3174 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA206/07/1392 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : bayesian method * clustering * inhomogeneous point process Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.623, year: 2014
Phosphorus flux due to Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in an oligotrophic upland stream: effects of management and demography

Science.gov (United States)

Keith H. Nislow; John D. Armstrong; Simon. McKelvey

2004-01-01

Little is known concerning the role of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the transport of nutrients to and from river systems. We used demographic data from the River Bran, an oligotrophic river in Scotland, UK, to construct a budget for the transport of phosphorus (P) and applied it to investigate the effects of management strategies and demographic...
How do you solve a problem like Letharia? A new look at cryptic species in lichen-forming fungi using Bayesian clustering and SNPs from multilocus sequence data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Susanne Altermann

Full Text Available The inclusion of molecular data is increasingly an integral part of studies assessing species boundaries. Analyses based on predefined groups may obscure patterns of differentiation, and population assignment tests provide an alternative for identifying population structure and barriers to gene flow. In this study, we apply population assignment tests implemented in the programs STRUCTURE and BAPS to single nucleotide polymorphisms from DNA sequence data generated for three previous studies of the lichenized fungal genus Letharia. Previous molecular work employing a gene genealogical approach circumscribed six species-level lineages within the genus, four putative lineages within the nominal taxon L. columbiana (Nutt. J.W. Thomson and two sorediate lineages. We show that Bayesian clustering implemented in the program STRUCTURE was generally able to recover the same six putative Letharia lineages. Population assignments were largely consistent across a range of scenarios, including: extensive amounts of missing data, the exclusion of SNPs from variable markers, and inferences based on SNPs from as few as three gene regions. While our study provided additional evidence corroborating the six candidate Letharia species, the equivalence of these genetic clusters with species-level lineages is uncertain due, in part, to limited phylogenetic signal. Furthermore, both the BAPS analysis and the ad hoc ΔK statistic from results of the STRUCTURE analysis suggest that population structure can possibly be captured with fewer genetic groups. Our findings also suggest that uneven sampling across taxa may be responsible for the contrasting inferences of population substructure. Our results consistently supported two distinct sorediate groups, 'L. lupina' and L. vulpina, and subtle morphological differences support this distinction. Similarly, the putative apotheciate species 'L. lucida' was also consistently supported as a distinct genetic cluster. However
Basics of Bayesian methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.
Late Quaternary Paleoclimatic History of Tropical South America From Drilling Lake Titicaca and the Salar de Uyuni

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Seltzer, G. O.; Rigsby, C. A.; Lowenstein, T. K.; Ku, R.

2003-12-01

Seven drill cores were recovered from Lake Titicaca during the NSF/ICDP/DOSECC drilling expedition of 2001. Sub-lake floor drilling depths ranged from 53 to 139 m; water depths ranged from 40 to 232 m; recoveries ranged from 75 to 112 percent. Our most detailed multi-proxy analyses to date have been done on Core 2B raised from the central basin of the lake from 232 m water depth, drilled to 139.26 m sub-lakefloor with 140.61 m of total sediment recovered (101 percent). A basal age of 200 Ka is estimated by linear extrapolation from radiocarbon measurements in the upper 25 m of core; Ar-Ar dating of interbedded ashes and U/Th dating of abiogenic aragonites are underway. The volume and lake level of Lake Titicaca have undergone large changes several times during the late Quaternary. Proxies for these water level changes (each of different fidelity) include the ratio of planktonic-to-benthic diatoms, sedimentary carbonate content, and stable isotopic content of organic carbon. The most recent of these changes, has been described previously from earlier piston cores. In the early and middle Holocene the lake fell below its outlet to 85 m below modern level, lake salinity increased several-fold, and the Salar de Uyuni, which receives overflow from Titicaca, dessicated. In contrast, Lake Titicaca was deep, fresh, and overflowing (southward to the Salar de Uyuni) throughout the last glacial maximum from prior to 25,000 BP to at least 15,000 BP. According to extrapolated ages, the penultimate major lowstand of Lake Titicaca occurred prior to 60,000 BP, when seismic evidence indicates that lake level was about 200 m lower than present. Near the end of this lowstand, the lake also became quite saline. There are at least three, and possibly more, older lowstands, each separated temporally by periods in which the lake freshened dramatically and overflowed. These results will be compared with results from previous drilling in the Salar de Uyuni.
Bayesian computation with R

CERN Document Server

Albert, Jim

2009-01-01

There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl
The Bayesian Score Statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

2000-01-01

We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike
Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belinda Hernández

2015-12-01

In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.
Bayesian inference with ecological applications

CERN Document Server

Link, William A

2009-01-01

This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...
From the viral perspective: infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) transcriptome during the infective process in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

Science.gov (United States)

Valenzuela-Miranda, Diego; Cabrejos, María Eugenia; Yañez, José Manuel; Gallardo-Escárate, Cristian

2015-04-01

The infectious salmon anemia virus (ISAV) is a severe disease that mainly affects the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) aquaculture industry. Although several transcriptional studies have aimed to understand Salmon-ISAV interaction through the evaluation of host-gene transcription, none of them has focused their attention upon the viral transcriptional dynamics. For this purpose, RNA-Seq and RT-qPCR analyses were conducted in gills, liver and head-kidney of S. salar challenged by cohabitation with ISAV. Results evidence the time and tissue transcript patterns involved in the viral expression and how the transcription levels of ISAV segments are directly linked with the protein abundance found in other virus of the Orthomyxoviridae family. In addition, RT-qPCR result evidenced that quantification of ISAV through amplification of segment 3 would result in a more sensitive approach for detection and quantification of ISAV. This study offers a more comprehensive approach regarding the ISAV infective process and gives novel knowledge for its molecular detection. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Development and validation of a high density SNP genotyping array for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Dense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping arrays provide extensive information on polymorphic variation across the genome of species of interest. Such information can be used in studies of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits and to improve the accuracy of selection in breeding programs. In Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), these goals are currently hampered by the lack of a high-density SNP genotyping platform. Therefore, the aim of the study was to develop and test a dense Atlantic salmon SNP array. Results SNP discovery was performed using extensive deep sequencing of Reduced Representation (RR-Seq), Restriction site-Associated DNA (RAD-Seq) and mRNA (RNA-Seq) libraries derived from farmed and wild Atlantic salmon samples (n = 283) resulting in the discovery of > 400 K putative SNPs. An Affymetrix Axiom® myDesign Custom Array was created and tested on samples of animals of wild and farmed origin (n = 96) revealing a total of 132,033 polymorphic SNPs with high call rate, good cluster separation on the array and stable Mendelian inheritance in our sample. At least 38% of these SNPs are from transcribed genomic regions and therefore more likely to include functional variants. Linkage analysis utilising the lack of male recombination in salmonids allowed the mapping of 40,214 SNPs distributed across all 29 pairs of chromosomes, highlighting the extensive genome-wide coverage of the SNPs. An identity-by-state clustering analysis revealed that the array can clearly distinguish between fish of different origins, within and between farmed and wild populations. Finally, Y-chromosome-specific probes included on the array provide an accurate molecular genetic test for sex. Conclusions This manuscript describes the first high-density SNP genotyping array for Atlantic salmon. This array will be publicly available and is likely to be used as a platform for high-resolution genetics research into traits of evolutionary and economic importance in
Bayesian Modeling of Temporal Coherence in Videos for Entity Discovery and Summarization.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, Adway; Biswas, Soma; Bhattacharyya, Chiranjib

2017-03-01

A video is understood by users in terms of entities present in it. Entity Discovery is the task of building appearance model for each entity (e.g., a person), and finding all its occurrences in the video. We represent a video as a sequence of tracklets, each spanning 10-20 frames, and associated with one entity. We pose Entity Discovery as tracklet clustering, and approach it by leveraging Temporal Coherence (TC): the property that temporally neighboring tracklets are likely to be associated with the same entity. Our major contributions are the first Bayesian nonparametric models for TC at tracklet-level. We extend Chinese Restaurant Process (CRP) to TC-CRP, and further to Temporally Coherent Chinese Restaurant Franchise (TC-CRF) to jointly model entities and temporal segments using mixture components and sparse distributions. For discovering persons in TV serial videos without meta-data like scripts, these methods show considerable improvement over state-of-the-art approaches to tracklet clustering in terms of clustering accuracy, cluster purity and entity coverage. The proposed methods can perform online tracklet clustering on streaming videos unlike existing approaches, and can automatically reject false tracklets. Finally we discuss entity-driven video summarization- where temporal segments of the video are selected based on the discovered entities, to create a semantically meaningful summary.
A Bayesian framework for risk perception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, H.R.N.

2017-01-01

We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy
Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

A Poisson nonnegative matrix factorization method with parameter subspace clustering constraint for endmember extraction in hyperspectral imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Weiwei; Ma, Jun; Yang, Gang; Du, Bo; Zhang, Liangpei

2017-06-01

A new Bayesian method named Poisson Nonnegative Matrix Factorization with Parameter Subspace Clustering Constraint (PNMF-PSCC) has been presented to extract endmembers from Hyperspectral Imagery (HSI). First, the method integrates the liner spectral mixture model with the Bayesian framework and it formulates endmember extraction into a Bayesian inference problem. Second, the Parameter Subspace Clustering Constraint (PSCC) is incorporated into the statistical program to consider the clustering of all pixels in the parameter subspace. The PSCC could enlarge differences among ground objects and helps finding endmembers with smaller spectrum divergences. Meanwhile, the PNMF-PSCC method utilizes the Poisson distribution as the prior knowledge of spectral signals to better explain the quantum nature of light in imaging spectrometer. Third, the optimization problem of PNMF-PSCC is formulated into maximizing the joint density via the Maximum A Posterior (MAP) estimator. The program is finally solved by iteratively optimizing two sub-problems via the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) framework and the FURTHESTSUM initialization scheme. Five state-of-the art methods are implemented to make comparisons with the performance of PNMF-PSCC on both the synthetic and real HSI datasets. Experimental results show that the PNMF-PSCC outperforms all the five methods in Spectral Angle Distance (SAD) and Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE), and especially it could identify good endmembers for ground objects with smaller spectrum divergences.
A Polyprotein-Expressing Salmonid Alphavirus Replicon Induces Modest Protection in Atlantic Salmon (Salmo Salar Against Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Azila Abdullah

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Vaccination is an important strategy for the control and prevention of infectious pancreatic necrosis (IPN in farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar in the post-smolt stage in sea-water. In this study, a heterologous gene expression system, based on a replicon construct of salmonid alphavirus (SAV, was used for in vitro and in vivo expression of IPN virus proteins. The large open reading frame of segment A, encoding the polyprotein NH2-pVP2-VP4-VP3-COOH, as well as pVP2, were cloned and expressed by the SAV replicon in Chinook salmon embryo cells (CHSE-214 and epithelioma papulosum cyprini (EPC cells. The replicon constructs pSAV/polyprotein (pSAV/PP and pSAV/pVP2 were used to immunize Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar by a single intramuscular injection and tested in a subsequent IPN virus (IPNV challenge trial. A low to moderate protection against IPN was observed in fish immunized with the replicon vaccine that encoded the pSAV/PP, while the pSAV/pVP2 construct was not found to induce protection.
Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

1998-12-01

Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)
Growth evaluation of atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) raised in seawater or freshwater and fed either fishmeal based on marine-free diets

Science.gov (United States)

A forty week feeding study was conducted with Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts in two recirculating aquaculture systems. Twelve salmon (average initial weight 117 g; initial density 9.4 kg/m3) were stocked per tank. Two identical systems were used and contained either freshwater (0 ppt) or sea...
Growth evaluation of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar) raised in seawater or freshwater and fed either fishmeal based or marine-free diets

Science.gov (United States)

A forty week feeding study was conducted with Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts in two recirculating aquaculture systems. Two identical systems were used and contained either freshwater (0 ppt) or seawater (about 30 ppt). Fish were fed one of two diets, a control diet containing fishmeal and fi...
Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)
Trans-generational maternal effect: temperature influences egg size of the offspring in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonsson, B; Jonsson, N

2016-08-01

Effect of increased temperature during egg maturation on the mass of single eggs produced by the offspring was investigated experimentally in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. Mass of eggs produced by next-generation females was larger when their mothers experienced warmer water during the last two months of egg maturation, relative to those that experienced unheated river water. There was no similar trans-generational paternal effect on offspring egg mass. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls
Multiple co-clustering based on nonparametric mixture models with heterogeneous marginal distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tokuda, Tomoki; Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Shimizu, Yu; Okada, Go; Takamura, Masahiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Yamawaki, Shigeto; Doya, Kenji

2017-01-01

We propose a novel method for multiple clustering, which is useful for analysis of high-dimensional data containing heterogeneous types of features. Our method is based on nonparametric Bayesian mixture models in which features are automatically partitioned (into views) for each clustering solution. This feature partition works as feature selection for a particular clustering solution, which screens out irrelevant features. To make our method applicable to high-dimensional data, a co-clustering structure is newly introduced for each view. Further, the outstanding novelty of our method is that we simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block, which widens areas of application to real data. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data.
Multiple co-clustering based on nonparametric mixture models with heterogeneous marginal distributions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomoki Tokuda

Full Text Available We propose a novel method for multiple clustering, which is useful for analysis of high-dimensional data containing heterogeneous types of features. Our method is based on nonparametric Bayesian mixture models in which features are automatically partitioned (into views for each clustering solution. This feature partition works as feature selection for a particular clustering solution, which screens out irrelevant features. To make our method applicable to high-dimensional data, a co-clustering structure is newly introduced for each view. Further, the outstanding novelty of our method is that we simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block, which widens areas of application to real data. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data.
Multiple co-clustering based on nonparametric mixture models with heterogeneous marginal distributions

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshimoto, Junichiro; Shimizu, Yu; Okada, Go; Takamura, Masahiro; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Yamawaki, Shigeto; Doya, Kenji

2017-01-01

We propose a novel method for multiple clustering, which is useful for analysis of high-dimensional data containing heterogeneous types of features. Our method is based on nonparametric Bayesian mixture models in which features are automatically partitioned (into views) for each clustering solution. This feature partition works as feature selection for a particular clustering solution, which screens out irrelevant features. To make our method applicable to high-dimensional data, a co-clustering structure is newly introduced for each view. Further, the outstanding novelty of our method is that we simultaneously model different distribution families, such as Gaussian, Poisson, and multinomial distributions in each cluster block, which widens areas of application to real data. We apply the proposed method to synthetic and real data, and show that our method outperforms other multiple clustering methods both in recovering true cluster structures and in computation time. Finally, we apply our method to a depression dataset with no true cluster structure available, from which useful inferences are drawn about possible clustering structures of the data. PMID:29049392
3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

2017-01-01

This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).
Bayesian clustering of DNA sequences using Markov chains and a stochastic partition model.

Science.gov (United States)

Jääskinen, Väinö; Parkkinen, Ville; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka

2014-02-01

In many biological applications it is necessary to cluster DNA sequences into groups that represent underlying organismal units, such as named species or genera. In metagenomics this grouping needs typically to be achieved on the basis of relatively short sequences which contain different types of errors, making the use of a statistical modeling approach desirable. Here we introduce a novel method for this purpose by developing a stochastic partition model that clusters Markov chains of a given order. The model is based on a Dirichlet process prior and we use conjugate priors for the Markov chain parameters which enables an analytical expression for comparing the marginal likelihoods of any two partitions. To find a good candidate for the posterior mode in the partition space, we use a hybrid computational approach which combines the EM-algorithm with a greedy search. This is demonstrated to be faster and yield highly accurate results compared to earlier suggested clustering methods for the metagenomics application. Our model is fairly generic and could also be used for clustering of other types of sequence data for which Markov chains provide a reasonable way to compress information, as illustrated by experiments on shotgun sequence type data from an Escherichia coli strain.
Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...
INVERTING COLOR-MAGNITUDE DIAGRAMS TO ACCESS PRECISE STAR CLUSTER PARAMETERS: A NEW WHITE DWARF AGE FOR THE HYADES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeGennaro, Steven; Von Hippel, Ted; Jefferys, William H.; Stein, Nathan; Jeffery, Elizabeth; Van Dyk, David

2009-01-01

We have extended our Bayesian modeling of stellar clusters-which uses main-sequence stellar evolution models, a mapping between initial masses and white dwarf (WD) masses, WD cooling models, and WD atmospheres-to include binary stars, field stars, and two additional main-sequence stellar evolution models. As a critical test of our Bayesian modeling technique, we apply it to Hyades UBV photometry, with membership priors based on proper motions and radial velocities, where available. Under the assumption of a particular set of WD cooling models and atmosphere models, we estimate the age of the Hyades based on cooling WDs to be 648 ± 45 Myr, consistent with the best prior analysis of the cluster main-sequence turnoff (MSTO) age by Perryman et al. Since the faintest WDs have most likely evaporated from the Hyades, prior work provided only a lower limit to the cluster's WD age. Our result demonstrates the power of the bright WD technique for deriving ages and further demonstrates complete age consistency between WD cooling and MSTO ages for seven out of seven clusters analyzed to date, ranging from 150 Myr to 4 Gyr.
Identification and molecular docking study of novel angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitory peptides from Salmo salar using in silico methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Zhipeng; Chen, Yang; Zhao, Wenzhu; Li, Jianrong; Liu, Jingbo; Chen, Feng

2018-01-25

In order to circumvent some challenges of the classical approach, the in silico method has been applied to the discovery of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitory peptides from food proteins. In this study, some convenient and efficient in silico tools were utilized to identify novel ACE inhibitory peptides from Salmo salar. Collagen from Salmo salar was digested in silico into hundreds of peptides. Results revealed that tetrapeptides PGAR and IGPR showed potent ACE inhibitory activity, with IC 50 values of 0.598 ± 0.12 and 0.43 ± 0.09 mmol L -1 , respectively. The molecular docking result showed that PGAR and IGPR interact with ACE mostly via hydrogen bonds and attractive charge. Peptide IGPR interacts with Zn + at the ACE active site, showing high inhibitory activity. Interaction with Zn + in ACE may lead to higher inhibitory activity of peptides, and Pi interactions may promote the effect of peptides on ACE. The in silico method can be an effective method to predict potent ACE inhibitory peptides from food proteins. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry.
Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

2003-01-01

been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....
Calibrating the Planck cluster mass scale with CLASH

Science.gov (United States)

Penna-Lima, M.; Bartlett, J. G.; Rozo, E.; Melin, J.-B.; Merten, J.; Evrard, A. E.; Postman, M.; Rykoff, E.

2017-08-01

We determine the mass scale of Planck galaxy clusters using gravitational lensing mass measurements from the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). We have compared the lensing masses to the Planck Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) mass proxy for 21 clusters in common, employing a Bayesian analysis to simultaneously fit an idealized CLASH selection function and the distribution between the measured observables and true cluster mass. We used a tiered analysis strategy to explicitly demonstrate the importance of priors on weak lensing mass accuracy. In the case of an assumed constant bias, bSZ, between true cluster mass, M500, and the Planck mass proxy, MPL, our analysis constrains 1-bSZ = 0.73 ± 0.10 when moderate priors on weak lensing accuracy are used, including a zero-mean Gaussian with standard deviation of 8% to account for possible bias in lensing mass estimations. Our analysis explicitly accounts for possible selection bias effects in this calibration sourced by the CLASH selection function. Our constraint on the cluster mass scale is consistent with recent results from the Weighing the Giants program and the Canadian Cluster Comparison Project. It is also consistent, at 1.34σ, with the value needed to reconcile the Planck SZ cluster counts with Planck's base ΛCDM model fit to the primary cosmic microwave background anisotropies.
The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.
2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

2015-01-01

The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

CERN Document Server

Zeevat, Henk

2015-01-01

The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.
Analyzing indirect effects in cluster randomized trials. The effect of estimation method, number of groups and group sizes on accuracy and power.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joop eHox

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Cluster randomized trials assess the effect of an intervention that is carried out at the group or cluster level. Ajzen’s theory of planned behaviour is often used to model the effect of the intervention as an indirect effect mediated in turn by attitude, norms and behavioural intention. Structural equation modelling (SEM is the technique of choice to estimate indirect effects and their significance. However, this is a large sample technique, and its application in a cluster randomized trial assumes a relatively large number of clusters. In practice, the number of clusters in these studies tends to be relatively small, e.g. much less than fifty. This study uses simulation methods to find the lowest number of clusters needed when multilevel SEM is used to estimate the indirect effect. Maximum likelihood estimation is compared to Bayesian analysis, with the central quality criteria being accuracy of the point estimate and the confidence interval. We also investigate the power of the test for the indirect effect. We conclude that Bayes estimation works well with much smaller cluster level sample sizes such as 20 cases than maximum likelihood estimation; although the bias is larger the coverage is much better. When only 5 to 10 clusters are available per treatment condition even with Bayesian estimation problems occur.
Reconstructing paleo-precipitation amounts using a terrestrial hydrologic model: Lake Titicaca and the Salar de Uyuni, Peru and Bolivia

Science.gov (United States)

Nunnery, J. A.; Baker, P. A.; Coe, M. T.; Fritz, S. C.

2010-12-01

The Peruvian/Bolivian Altiplano has provided many information-rich records bearing on the history of the South American summer monsoon (SASM), a large-scale circulation system that is responsible for much of the precipitation over the Amazon basin and the southern tropics and subtropics. Examples of these paleoclimate time series include long, drill core records from Lake Titicaca (extending back to ca. 400 Ka, Fritz et al., 2007), the long drill core record from Salar de Uyuni (> 250 Ka, Baker et al., 2001; Fritz et al., 2004), paleo-lake level records from the Salar de Uyuni (e.g. Bills et al., 2004; Placzek et al, 2006); drill core records from the Rio Desaguadero valley (Rigsby et al., 2003), and ice core records from Quelccaya, Illimani, and Sajama (Thompson et al., 2000; Ramirez et al., 2003). Several previous studies using energy and water balance models have been applied to these records in attempts to provide quantitative constraints on paleo-temperature and paleo-precipitation (e.g. Kessler, 1984; Hastenrath and Kutzbach, 1985; Cross et al, 2001; Rowe and Dunbar, 2004; Arnold, 2002; Blodgett et al., 1997). For example, Blodgett et al. concluded that high paleolake stands in the Bolivian Altiplano, dated at ca. 16,000 cal. Yr BP (Bills et al., 1994) required precipitation 20% higher than modern at temperatures 5°C colder than modern. However, their model did not take into account the major overflow from Lake Titicaca. Using the THMB hydrologic model, we show that overflow from Lake Titicaca is necessary to produce and sustain large lakes in the Salar de Uyuni basin. This hydrological connection (via the Rio Desaguadero) between the northern and southern Altiplano likely was only established about 60,000 years ago. Prior to that, there were no sustained, large and deep paleolakes on the southern Altiplano. Rather, drill core evidence indicates a very long sequence of shallow, hypersaline lakes and playas.
Clustering disaggregated load profiles using a Dirichlet process mixture model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granell, Ramon; Axon, Colin J.; Wallom, David C.H.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We show that the Dirichlet process mixture model is scaleable. • Our model does not require the number of clusters as an input. • Our model creates clusters only by the features of the demand profiles. • We have used both residential and commercial data sets. - Abstract: The increasing availability of substantial quantities of power-use data in both the residential and commercial sectors raises the possibility of mining the data to the advantage of both consumers and network operations. We present a Bayesian non-parametric model to cluster load profiles from households and business premises. Evaluators show that our model performs as well as other popular clustering methods, but unlike most other methods it does not require the number of clusters to be predetermined by the user. We used the so-called ‘Chinese restaurant process’ method to solve the model, making use of the Dirichlet-multinomial distribution. The number of clusters grew logarithmically with the quantity of data, making the technique suitable for scaling to large data sets. We were able to show that the model could distinguish features such as the nationality, household size, and type of dwelling between the cluster memberships
Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.
Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stein, A.

2004-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision
Aluminum exposure impacts brain plasticity and behavior in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

Science.gov (United States)

Grassie, C; Braithwaite, V A; Nilsson, J; Nilsen, T O; Teien, H-C; Handeland, S O; Stefansson, S O; Tronci, V; Gorissen, M; Flik, G; Ebbesson, L O E

2013-08-15

Aluminum (Al) toxicity occurs frequently in natural aquatic ecosystems as a result of acid deposition and natural weathering processes. Detrimental effects of Al toxicity on aquatic organisms are well known and can have consequences for survival. Fish exposed to Al in low pH waters will experience physiological and neuroendocrine changes that disrupt homeostasis and alter behavior. To investigate the effects of Al exposure on both the brain and behavior, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) kept in water treated with Al (pH 5.7, 0.37±0.04 μmol 1(-1) Al) for 2 weeks were compared with fish kept in under control conditions (pH 6.7, salmon, and may impair the ability to cope with new environments.
Associations between piscine reovirus infection and life history traits in wild-caught Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. in Norway.

Science.gov (United States)

Garseth, Ase Helen; Biering, Eirik; Aunsmo, Arnfinn

2013-10-01

Piscine Reovirus (PRV), the putative causative agent of heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI), is widely distributed in both farmed and wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) in Norway. While HSMI is a common and commercially important disease in farmed Atlantic salmon, the presence of PRV has so far not been associated with HSMI related lesions in wild salmon. Factors associated with PRV-infection were investigated in returning Atlantic salmon captured in Norwegian rivers. A multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression model confirmed clustering within rivers and demonstrated that PRV-infection is associated with life-history, sex, catch-year and body length as a proxy for sea-age. Escaped farmed salmon (odds ratio/OR: 7.32, p<0.001) and hatchery-reared salmon (OR: 1.69 p=0.073) have higher odds of being PRV-infected than wild Atlantic salmon. Male salmon have double odds of being PRV infected compared to female salmon (OR: 2.11, p<0.001). Odds of being PRV-infected increased with body-length measured as decimetres (OR: 1.20, p=0.004). Since body length and sea-age are correlated (r=0.85 p<0.001), body length serves as a proxy for sea-age, meaning that spending more years in sea increases the odds of being PRV-infected. Copyright © 2013 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...
Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

2018-02-01

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

Science.gov (United States)

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value
Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.
Bayesian policy reuse

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rosman, Benjamin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...
Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

2014-01-01

The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian
Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models
The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

2014-01-01

Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Multiple Model Soft Sensor Based on Affinity Propagation, Gaussian Process and Bayesian Committee Machine%基于仿射聚类、高斯过程和贝叶斯决策的多模型软测量建模

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

李修亮; 苏宏业; 褚健

2009-01-01

Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation (AP), Gaussian process (GP) and Bayesian committee machine (BCM). AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee machine is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemi-cal processes.
Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caspar Mathias Goeke

2016-10-01

Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in
An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.
Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Margaritis, Dimitris

1999-01-01

.... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

Temperature selection of juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) as influenced by various toxic substances

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, R H

1976-08-01

Previous exposure to sodium pentachlorophenate (NaPCP), Guthion, malathion, Dursban, and Dibrom lowered the preferred temperature for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) tested in a horizontal temperature gradient. Lindane, CuSO/sub 4/, ZnSO/sub 4/, CdSO/sub 4/, Sevin, heptachlor, and fenitrothion did not change the preferred temperature significantly. Comparison with other published results indicates that those substances that increase the preferred temperature are more toxic (based on relevant changes in 24-h LC50) at low temperatures and vice versa. It is suggested that such shifts in selected temperature may be of potential immediate, short-term, survival value to the fish. (auth)
A Bayesian encourages dropout

OpenAIRE

Maeda, Shin-ichi

2014-01-01

Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.
Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.
Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.
Fillet quality and processing attributes of postsmolt Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, fed a fishmeal-free diet and a fishmeal-based diet in recirculation aquaculture systems

Science.gov (United States)

Many studies have evaluated the adequacy of alternate ingredient diets for Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, mainly with focus on fish performance and health; however, comprehensive analysis of fillet quality is lacking, particularly for salmon fed these diets in recirculation aquaculture systems (RAS)....
Comparative cardiac pathological changes of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) affected with heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI), cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) and pancreas disease (PD)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousaf, Muhammad Naveed; Koppang, Erling Olaf; Skjødt, Karsten

2013-01-01

The heart is considered the powerhouse of the cardiovascular system. Heart and skeletal muscle inflammation (HSMI), cardiomyopathy syndrome (CMS) and pancreas disease (PD) are cardiac diseases of marine farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) which commonly affect the heart in addition to the skeletal...
Testing three common stocking methods: Differences in smolt size, migration rate and timing of two strains of stocked Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar )

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Birnie-Gauvin, Kim; Larsen, Martin Hage; Thomassen, Søren T.

2018-01-01

The influence of three common stocking practices for two strains (Ätran and Burrishoole) of hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, on smolt size, migration probability and migration timing were investigated in situ. Using a common garden experiment, fish from these populations were release...... to inherited factors, and emphasize the importance of considering age of fish and time spent in the hatchery when stocking populations in the wild to maximize smolt output......The influence of three common stocking practices for two strains (Ätran and Burrishoole) of hatchery-reared Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, on smolt size, migration probability and migration timing were investigated in situ. Using a common garden experiment, fish from these populations were released...... as fry, half-year olds and oneyear olds. Our results indicate that fish released at the fry and half-year stage produce smaller smolts, and migrate later in the year than their counterparts released at one-year of age, for both the Ätran and the Burrishoole populations. While fry had the lowest...
Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.
On the blind use of statistical tools in the analysis of globular cluster stars

Science.gov (United States)

D'Antona, Francesca; Caloi, Vittoria; Tailo, Marco

2018-04-01

As with most data analysis methods, the Bayesian method must be handled with care. We show that its application to determine stellar evolution parameters within globular clusters can lead to paradoxical results if used without the necessary precautions. This is a cautionary tale on the use of statistical tools for big data analysis.
Π4U: A high performance computing framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification of complex models

Science.gov (United States)

Hadjidoukas, P. E.; Angelikopoulos, P.; Papadimitriou, C.; Koumoutsakos, P.

2015-03-01

We present Π4U, an extensible framework, for non-intrusive Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation (UQ+P) of complex and computationally demanding physical models, that can exploit massively parallel computer architectures. The framework incorporates Laplace asymptotic approximations as well as stochastic algorithms, along with distributed numerical differentiation and task-based parallelism for heterogeneous clusters. Sampling is based on the Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) algorithm and its variants. The optimization tasks associated with the asymptotic approximations are treated via the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). A modified subset simulation method is used for posterior reliability measurements of rare events. The framework accommodates scheduling of multiple physical model evaluations based on an adaptive load balancing library and shows excellent scalability. In addition to the software framework, we also provide guidelines as to the applicability and efficiency of Bayesian tools when applied to computationally demanding physical models. Theoretical and computational developments are demonstrated with applications drawn from molecular dynamics, structural dynamics and granular flow.
Π4U: A high performance computing framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification of complex models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hadjidoukas, P.E.; Angelikopoulos, P.; Papadimitriou, C.; Koumoutsakos, P.

2015-01-01

We present Π4U, 1 an extensible framework, for non-intrusive Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation (UQ+P) of complex and computationally demanding physical models, that can exploit massively parallel computer architectures. The framework incorporates Laplace asymptotic approximations as well as stochastic algorithms, along with distributed numerical differentiation and task-based parallelism for heterogeneous clusters. Sampling is based on the Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) algorithm and its variants. The optimization tasks associated with the asymptotic approximations are treated via the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). A modified subset simulation method is used for posterior reliability measurements of rare events. The framework accommodates scheduling of multiple physical model evaluations based on an adaptive load balancing library and shows excellent scalability. In addition to the software framework, we also provide guidelines as to the applicability and efficiency of Bayesian tools when applied to computationally demanding physical models. Theoretical and computational developments are demonstrated with applications drawn from molecular dynamics, structural dynamics and granular flow
Bayesian Utilitarianism

OpenAIRE

ZHOU, Lin

1996-01-01

In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism
Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

2009-01-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly
TESTING BAYESIAN ALGORITHMS TO DETECT GENETIC STRUCTURE IN TWO CLOSELY RELATED OAK TAXA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristian Mihai Enescu

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to test the Bayesian algorithm implemented in the software STRUCTURE in order to detect the number of clusters, by using microsatellite data from four oak species. Several assignment models, with or without a priori grouping of individuals to species, were proposed. Better results were obtained by using the sampling location information and when only two taxa were analyzed. Particularly, pedunculate oak and sessile oak formed distinct clusters whatever the assignment model we use. By contrast, no separation between the two oaks from series Lanuginosae was observed. This can be explained, on one hand, by the small sampling size for Italian oak, or by the genetic similarities of the two pubescent oaks, namely Quercus pubescens and Q. virgiliana, on the other hand. Our findings support the hypothesis according which Italian oak is an intraspecific taxonomic unit of pubescent oak.
Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

Science.gov (United States)

Caudle, Kyle

2010-01-01

In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…
Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abad-Grau María M

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.
Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2009-02-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Sensory and chemical changes in farmed Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ) during frozen storage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, Hanne; Brockhoff, P.B.; Jensen, Benny

1998-01-01

Farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) were stored as fillets at -10 and -20 degrees C and whole at -30 degrees C. The most pronounced sensory changes were first recognized by the assessors, when the salmon samples were in the oral cavity, and were significant increases in train oil taste, metal...... during storage. The content of lipid hydroperoxides and free fatty acids also increased during storage, and the changes were fastest in salmon stored at -10 degrees C. A decrease in highly unsaturated fatty acids was observed in salmon stored at -10 and -20 degrees C. Peroxide values and the content...... of free fatty acids were shown by a partial least-squares analysis to be the best of the instrumental data in describing the sensory changes....
Lane-Level Road Information Mining from Vehicle GPS Trajectories Based on Naïve Bayesian Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luliang Tang

2015-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a novel approach for mining lane-level road network information from low-precision vehicle GPS trajectories (MLIT, which includes the number and turn rules of traffic lanes based on naïve Bayesian classification. First, the proposed method (MLIT uses an adaptive density optimization method to remove outliers from the raw GPS trajectories based on their space-time distribution and density clustering. Second, MLIT acquires the number of lanes in two steps. The first step establishes a naïve Bayesian classifier according to the trace features of the road plane and road profiles and the real number of lanes, as found in the training samples. The second step confirms the number of lanes using test samples in reference to the naïve Bayesian classifier using the known trace features of test sample. Third, MLIT infers the turn rules of each lane through tracking GPS trajectories. Experiments were conducted using the GPS trajectories of taxis in Wuhan, China. Compared with human-interpreted results, the automatically generated lane-level road network information was demonstrated to be of higher quality in terms of displaying detailed road networks with the number of lanes and turn rules of each lane.
Simultaneous Force Regression and Movement Classification of Fingers via Surface EMG within a Unified Bayesian Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldacchino, Tara; Jacobs, William R; Anderson, Sean R; Worden, Keith; Rowson, Jennifer

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a novel methodology for myolectric-based control using surface electromyographic (sEMG) signals recorded during finger movements. A multivariate Bayesian mixture of experts (MoE) model is introduced which provides a powerful method for modeling force regression at the fingertips, while also performing finger movement classification as a by-product of the modeling algorithm. Bayesian inference of the model allows uncertainties to be naturally incorporated into the model structure. This method is tested using data from the publicly released NinaPro database which consists of sEMG recordings for 6 degree-of-freedom force activations for 40 intact subjects. The results demonstrate that the MoE model achieves similar performance compared to the benchmark set by the authors of NinaPro for finger force regression. Additionally, inherent to the Bayesian framework is the inclusion of uncertainty in the model parameters, naturally providing confidence bounds on the force regression predictions. Furthermore, the integrated clustering step allows a detailed investigation into classification of the finger movements, without incurring any extra computational effort. Subsequently, a systematic approach to assessing the importance of the number of electrodes needed for accurate control is performed via sensitivity analysis techniques. A slight degradation in regression performance is observed for a reduced number of electrodes, while classification performance is unaffected.

Growth and osmoregulation in Salmo salar L. juveniles 1+, 1½ + and 2+ reared under restrained salinity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Fernando Magalhães Gonçalves

2013-02-01

Full Text Available The freshwater phase of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L vary between one and eight years. The reduction of the freshwater phase is desirable to reduce freshwater usage, human resources and to increase year round availability of pan-sized salmon. Three trials were conducted to investigate the possibility of supply the market in a year-round basis, with pan-sized Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. (250-300 g in Portugal (southern limit of the natural distribution of this species. This study primarily aimed to compare the osmoregulatory ability and growth of different fish sizes, smolts 1+ (trial 1, 1.5+ (trial 2 and 2+ (trial 3, in freshwater and seawater conditions. Additionally, effects of photoperiod were determined in smolts 1.5+ (trial 2 for both freshwater and seawater groups. The increments in the plasma osmolality and chlorine concentrations after seawater transfer suggest an identical development in the hypo-osmoregulation capacity among the different age classes. In all trials, weight gain was smaller after 30 d of saltwater transfer when compared to fish reared in freshwater. However, the growth depression was temporary. Seawater group showed a compensatory growth in the immediate months, which permitted an improvement in growth rates. At the end of trials there were minor differences on growth performance between freshwater and seawater groups. Specific growth rates varied between 0.7 and 1.0 % day-1, according to the age and /or size and transfer season.
Parallelized Bayesian inversion for three-dimensional dental X-ray imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolehmainen, Ville; Vanne, Antti; Siltanen, Samuli; Järvenpää, Seppo; Kaipio, Jari P; Lassas, Matti; Kalke, Martti

2006-02-01

Diagnostic and operational tasks based on dental radiology often require three-dimensional (3-D) information that is not available in a single X-ray projection image. Comprehensive 3-D information about tissues can be obtained by computerized tomography (CT) imaging. However, in dental imaging a conventional CT scan may not be available or practical because of high radiation dose, low-resolution or the cost of the CT scanner equipment. In this paper, we consider a novel type of 3-D imaging modality for dental radiology. We consider situations in which projection images of the teeth are taken from a few sparsely distributed projection directions using the dentist's regular (digital) X-ray equipment and the 3-D X-ray attenuation function is reconstructed. A complication in these experiments is that the reconstruction of the 3-D structure based on a few projection images becomes an ill-posed inverse problem. Bayesian inversion is a well suited framework for reconstruction from such incomplete data. In Bayesian inversion, the ill-posed reconstruction problem is formulated in a well-posed probabilistic form in which a priori information is used to compensate for the incomplete information of the projection data. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for 3-D reconstruction in dental radiology. The method is partially based on Kolehmainen et al. 2003. The prior model for dental structures consist of a weighted l1 and total variation (TV)-prior together with the positivity prior. The inverse problem is stated as finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. To make the 3-D reconstruction computationally feasible, a parallelized version of an optimization algorithm is implemented for a Beowulf cluster computer. The method is tested with projection data from dental specimens and patient data. Tomosynthetic reconstructions are given as reference for the proposed method.
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

2012-01-01

This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA
Bayesian Networks An Introduction

CERN Document Server

Koski, Timo

2009-01-01

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).
A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belkheir Essebbar

2004-02-01

Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.
Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....
Bayesian theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

2013-01-01

The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...
Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.
Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.
Bayesian models and meta analysis for multiple tissue gene expression data following corticosteroid administration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelemen Arpad

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper addresses key biological problems and statistical issues in the analysis of large gene expression data sets that describe systemic temporal response cascades to therapeutic doses in multiple tissues such as liver, skeletal muscle, and kidney from the same animals. Affymetrix time course gene expression data U34A are obtained from three different tissues including kidney, liver and muscle. Our goal is not only to find the concordance of gene in different tissues, identify the common differentially expressed genes over time and also examine the reproducibility of the findings by integrating the results through meta analysis from multiple tissues in order to gain a significant increase in the power of detecting differentially expressed genes over time and to find the differential differences of three tissues responding to the drug. Results and conclusion Bayesian categorical model for estimating the proportion of the 'call' are used for pre-screening genes. Hierarchical Bayesian Mixture Model is further developed for the identifications of differentially expressed genes across time and dynamic clusters. Deviance information criterion is applied to determine the number of components for model comparisons and selections. Bayesian mixture model produces the gene-specific posterior probability of differential/non-differential expression and the 95% credible interval, which is the basis for our further Bayesian meta-inference. Meta-analysis is performed in order to identify commonly expressed genes from multiple tissues that may serve as ideal targets for novel treatment strategies and to integrate the results across separate studies. We have found the common expressed genes in the three tissues. However, the up/down/no regulations of these common genes are different at different time points. Moreover, the most differentially expressed genes were found in the liver, then in kidney, and then in muscle.
Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

CERN Document Server

Riggelsen, C

2008-01-01

This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.
Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of gene expression time series across irregularly sampled replicates and clusters.

Science.gov (United States)

Hensman, James; Lawrence, Neil D; Rattray, Magnus

2013-08-20

Time course data from microarrays and high-throughput sequencing experiments require simple, computationally efficient and powerful statistical models to extract meaningful biological signal, and for tasks such as data fusion and clustering. Existing methodologies fail to capture either the temporal or replicated nature of the experiments, and often impose constraints on the data collection process, such as regularly spaced samples, or similar sampling schema across replications. We propose hierarchical Gaussian processes as a general model of gene expression time-series, with application to a variety of problems. In particular, we illustrate the method's capacity for missing data imputation, data fusion and clustering.The method can impute data which is missing both systematically and at random: in a hold-out test on real data, performance is significantly better than commonly used imputation methods. The method's ability to model inter- and intra-cluster variance leads to more biologically meaningful clusters. The approach removes the necessity for evenly spaced samples, an advantage illustrated on a developmental Drosophila dataset with irregular replications. The hierarchical Gaussian process model provides an excellent statistical basis for several gene-expression time-series tasks. It has only a few additional parameters over a regular GP, has negligible additional complexity, is easily implemented and can be integrated into several existing algorithms. Our experiments were implemented in python, and are available from the authors' website: http://staffwww.dcs.shef.ac.uk/people/J.Hensman/.
Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.

2016-02-13

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.
Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver

2016-01-01

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.
Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas
Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

2018-01-01

An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....
Monitoring Murder Crime in Namibia Using Bayesian Space-Time Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isak Neema

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper focuses on the analysis of murder in Namibia using Bayesian spatial smoothing approach with temporal trends. The analysis was based on the reported cases from 13 regions of Namibia for the period 2002–2006 complemented with regional population sizes. The evaluated random effects include space-time structured heterogeneity measuring the effect of regional clustering, unstructured heterogeneity, time, space and time interaction and population density. The model consists of carefully chosen prior and hyper-prior distributions for parameters and hyper-parameters, with inference conducted using Gibbs sampling algorithm and sensitivity test for model validation. The posterior mean estimate of the parameters from the model using DIC as model selection criteria show that most of the variation in the relative risk of murder is due to regional clustering, while the effect of population density and time was insignificant. The sensitivity analysis indicates that both intrinsic and Laplace CAR prior can be adopted as prior distribution for the space-time heterogeneity. In addition, the relative risk map show risk structure of increasing north-south gradient, pointing to low risk in northern regions of Namibia, while Karas and Khomas region experience long-term increase in murder risk.
Universal Darwinism as a process of Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Oberon Campbell

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes’ Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians. As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an ‘experiment’ in the external world environment, and the results of that 'experiment' or the 'surprise' entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the ‘experiment’. Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of 'surprise' experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.
Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.

2003-01-01

We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data

Weighted community detection and data clustering using message passing

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Cheng; Liu, Yanchen; Zhang, Pan

2018-03-01

Grouping objects into clusters based on the similarities or weights between them is one of the most important problems in science and engineering. In this work, by extending message-passing algorithms and spectral algorithms proposed for an unweighted community detection problem, we develop a non-parametric method based on statistical physics, by mapping the problem to the Potts model at the critical temperature of spin-glass transition and applying belief propagation to solve the marginals corresponding to the Boltzmann distribution. Our algorithm is robust to over-fitting and gives a principled way to determine whether there are significant clusters in the data and how many clusters there are. We apply our method to different clustering tasks. In the community detection problem in weighted and directed networks, we show that our algorithm significantly outperforms existing algorithms. In the clustering problem, where the data were generated by mixture models in the sparse regime, we show that our method works all the way down to the theoretical limit of detectability and gives accuracy very close to that of the optimal Bayesian inference. In the semi-supervised clustering problem, our method only needs several labels to work perfectly in classic datasets. Finally, we further develop Thouless-Anderson-Palmer equations which heavily reduce the computation complexity in dense networks but give almost the same performance as belief propagation.
A review and comparison of Bayesian and likelihood-based inferences in beta regression and zero-or-one-inflated beta regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fang; Eugenio, Evercita C

2018-04-01

Beta regression is an increasingly popular statistical technique in medical research for modeling of outcomes that assume values in (0, 1), such as proportions and patient reported outcomes. When outcomes take values in the intervals [0,1), (0,1], or [0,1], zero-or-one-inflated beta (zoib) regression can be used. We provide a thorough review on beta regression and zoib regression in the modeling, inferential, and computational aspects via the likelihood-based and Bayesian approaches. We demonstrate the statistical and practical importance of correctly modeling the inflation at zero/one rather than ad hoc replacing them with values close to zero/one via simulation studies; the latter approach can lead to biased estimates and invalid inferences. We show via simulation studies that the likelihood-based approach is computationally faster in general than MCMC algorithms used in the Bayesian inferences, but runs the risk of non-convergence, large biases, and sensitivity to starting values in the optimization algorithm especially with clustered/correlated data, data with sparse inflation at zero and one, and data that warrant regularization of the likelihood. The disadvantages of the regular likelihood-based approach make the Bayesian approach an attractive alternative in these cases. Software packages and tools for fitting beta and zoib regressions in both the likelihood-based and Bayesian frameworks are also reviewed.
Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

Science.gov (United States)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.
Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.
Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1986-01-01

This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)
Bayesian Non-Parametric Mixtures of GARCH(1,1 Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John W. Lau

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Traditional GARCH models describe volatility levels that evolve smoothly over time, generated by a single GARCH regime. However, nonstationary time series data may exhibit abrupt changes in volatility, suggesting changes in the underlying GARCH regimes. Further, the number and times of regime changes are not always obvious. This article outlines a nonparametric mixture of GARCH models that is able to estimate the number and time of volatility regime changes by mixing over the Poisson-Kingman process. The process is a generalisation of the Dirichlet process typically used in nonparametric models for time-dependent data provides a richer clustering structure, and its application to time series data is novel. Inference is Bayesian, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to explore the posterior distribution is described. The methodology is illustrated on the Standard and Poor's 500 financial index.
Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liangdong Hu

Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.
Bayesian analysis of rare events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.
The effects of long-term 20 mg/L carbon dioxide exposure on the health and performance of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar post-smolts in water recirculation aquaculture systems

Science.gov (United States)

Previous research and experience has linked elevated dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) to reduced growth performance, poor feed conversion, and a variety of health issues in farm-raised fish, including Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. Supplemental control measures in water recirculation aquaculture systems...
Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

CERN Document Server

Hobbs, N Thompson

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili
Π4U: A high performance computing framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification of complex models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hadjidoukas, P.E.; Angelikopoulos, P. [Computational Science and Engineering Laboratory, ETH Zürich, CH-8092 (Switzerland); Papadimitriou, C. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Thessaly, GR-38334 Volos (Greece); Koumoutsakos, P., E-mail: petros@ethz.ch [Computational Science and Engineering Laboratory, ETH Zürich, CH-8092 (Switzerland)

2015-03-01

We present Π4U,{sup 1} an extensible framework, for non-intrusive Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation (UQ+P) of complex and computationally demanding physical models, that can exploit massively parallel computer architectures. The framework incorporates Laplace asymptotic approximations as well as stochastic algorithms, along with distributed numerical differentiation and task-based parallelism for heterogeneous clusters. Sampling is based on the Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) algorithm and its variants. The optimization tasks associated with the asymptotic approximations are treated via the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). A modified subset simulation method is used for posterior reliability measurements of rare events. The framework accommodates scheduling of multiple physical model evaluations based on an adaptive load balancing library and shows excellent scalability. In addition to the software framework, we also provide guidelines as to the applicability and efficiency of Bayesian tools when applied to computationally demanding physical models. Theoretical and computational developments are demonstrated with applications drawn from molecular dynamics, structural dynamics and granular flow.
Vaccination improves survival of Baltic salmon ( Salmo salar ) smolts in delayed release sea ranching (net-pen period)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchmann, Kurt; Dalsgaard, Inger; Nielsen, Michael Engelbrecht

1997-01-01

Baltic salmon (Salmo salar) of the Finnish Iijoki stock were hatched and reared in freshwater in a salmon hatchery on the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic sea. Salmon parr were divided in three groups each comprising 22 000 fish. One group was vaccinated by intraperitoneal injection....... In contrast, no increase of titres was seen in the bath vaccinated and untreated groups. Marked cellular reactions in the abdominal cavity of injected fish were registered. A total of 3000 fish have been tagged and released to evaluate the effect of vaccination on the recapture rate. The implications...
Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham

2008-01-01

We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations
BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

2016-11-01

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.
Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.
Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

2008-01-01

The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.
Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

OpenAIRE

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

2006-01-01

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...
Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

2004-01-01

We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...
Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Science.gov (United States)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.
Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function
Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan Guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.
Fast Bayesian Inference in Dirichlet Process Mixture Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lianming; Dunson, David B

2011-01-01

There has been increasing interest in applying Bayesian nonparametric methods in large samples and high dimensions. As Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often infeasible, there is a pressing need for much faster algorithms. This article proposes a fast approach for inference in Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) models. Viewing the partitioning of subjects into clusters as a model selection problem, we propose a sequential greedy search algorithm for selecting the partition. Then, when conjugate priors are chosen, the resulting posterior conditionally on the selected partition is available in closed form. This approach allows testing of parametric models versus nonparametric alternatives based on Bayes factors. We evaluate the approach using simulation studies and compare it with four other fast nonparametric methods in the literature. We apply the proposed approach to three datasets including one from a large epidemiologic study. Matlab codes for the simulation and data analyses using the proposed approach are available online in the supplemental materials.
Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.

2016-01-01

We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian
Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

2006-01-01

We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...
A Bayesian Justification for Random Sampling in Sample Survey

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Glen Meeden

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In the usual Bayesian approach to survey sampling the sampling design, plays a minimal role, at best. Although a close relationship between exchangeable prior distributions and simple random sampling has been noted; how to formally integrate simple random sampling into the Bayesian paradigm is not clear. Recently it has been argued that the sampling design can be thought of as part of a Bayesian's prior distribution. We will show here that under this scenario simple random sample can be given a Bayesian justification in survey sampling.
Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.
The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.
Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability
Effects of GnRHa treatment during vitellogenesis on the reproductive physiology of thermally challenged female Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar

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Kelli Anderson

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Tasmanian Atlantic salmon (S. salar broodstock can experience temperatures above 20 °C, which impairs reproductive development and inhibits ovulation. The present study investigated the prolonged use of gonadotropin releasing hormone analogue (GnRHa during vitellogenesis as a means of maintaining endocrine function and promoting egg quality at elevated temperature in maiden and repeat spawning S. salar. GnRHa-treatment during vitellogenesis did not compensate for the negative effects of thermal challenge on the timing of ovulation, egg size, egg fertility or embryo survival in any fish maintained at 22 °C relative to 14 °C. The lack of effectiveness was reflected by the endocrine data, as plasma follicle stimulating hormone and luteinising hormone levels were not different between treated and untreated groups at 22 °C. Furthermore, plasma testosterone and E2 levels were unchanged in GnRHa-treated fish at 22 °C, and plasma levels were generally lower in both groups maintained at 22 °C relative to 14 °C. Transcription of vitellogenin, and zona pellucida B and C was not enhanced in GnRHa-treated fish relative to untreated fish at 22 °C, presumably due to observed suppression of plasma E2. These results indicate that thermal impairment of reproduction is likely to occur on multiple levels, and is difficult to overcome via hormonal manipulation.
Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Roy

2016-01-01

In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…
RSQRT: AN HEURISTIC FOR ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF CLUSTERS TO REPORT

Science.gov (United States)

Bruso, Kelsey

2012-01-01

Clustering can be a valuable tool for analyzing large datasets, such as in e-commerce applications. Anyone who clusters must choose how many item clusters, K, to report. Unfortunately, one must guess at K or some related parameter. Elsewhere we introduced a strongly-supported heuristic, RSQRT, which predicts K as a function of the attribute or item count, depending on attribute scales. We conducted a second analysis where we sought confirmation of the heuristic, analyzing data sets from theUCImachine learning benchmark repository. For the 25 studies where sufficient detail was available, we again found strong support. Also, in a side-by-side comparison of 28 studies, RSQRT best-predicted K and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) predicted K are the same. RSQRT has a lower cost of O(log log n) versus O(n2) for BIC, and is more widely applicable. Using RSQRT prospectively could be much better than merely guessing. PMID:22773923
RSQRT: AN HEURISTIC FOR ESTIMATING THE NUMBER OF CLUSTERS TO REPORT.

Science.gov (United States)

Carlis, John; Bruso, Kelsey

2012-03-01

Clustering can be a valuable tool for analyzing large datasets, such as in e-commerce applications. Anyone who clusters must choose how many item clusters, K, to report. Unfortunately, one must guess at K or some related parameter. Elsewhere we introduced a strongly-supported heuristic, RSQRT, which predicts K as a function of the attribute or item count, depending on attribute scales. We conducted a second analysis where we sought confirmation of the heuristic, analyzing data sets from theUCImachine learning benchmark repository. For the 25 studies where sufficient detail was available, we again found strong support. Also, in a side-by-side comparison of 28 studies, RSQRT best-predicted K and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) predicted K are the same. RSQRT has a lower cost of O(log log n) versus O(n(2)) for BIC, and is more widely applicable. Using RSQRT prospectively could be much better than merely guessing.
Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kim Hyun

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. Results We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB to investigate organism’s metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. Conclusions After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.
Framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis to investigate the perturbed metabolic network.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyun Uk; Kim, Tae Yong; Lee, Sang Yup

2011-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic network models have contributed to elucidating biological phenomena, and predicting gene targets to engineer for biotechnological applications. With their increasing importance, their precise network characterization has also been crucial for better understanding of the cellular physiology. We herein introduce a framework for network modularization and Bayesian network analysis (FMB) to investigate organism's metabolism under perturbation. FMB reveals direction of influences among metabolic modules, in which reactions with similar or positively correlated flux variation patterns are clustered, in response to specific perturbation using metabolic flux data. With metabolic flux data calculated by constraints-based flux analysis under both control and perturbation conditions, FMB, in essence, reveals the effects of specific perturbations on the biological system through network modularization and Bayesian network analysis at metabolic modular level. As a demonstration, this framework was applied to the genetically perturbed Escherichia coli metabolism, which is a lpdA gene knockout mutant, using its genome-scale metabolic network model. After all, it provides alternative scenarios of metabolic flux distributions in response to the perturbation, which are complementary to the data obtained from conventionally available genome-wide high-throughput techniques or metabolic flux analysis.
Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon Williamson

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.
Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.
Probability biases as Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre; C. R. Martins

2006-11-01

Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.
Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Development of intestinal ion-transporting mechanisms during smoltification and seawater acclimation in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

Science.gov (United States)

Sundh, Henrik; Nilsen, Tom O.; Lindström, Jenny; Hasselberg-Frank, Linda; Stefansson, Sigurd O.; McCormick, Stephen D.; Sundell, K.

2014-01-01

This study investigated the expression of ion transporters involved in intestinal fluid absorption and presents evidence for developmental changes in abundance and tissue distribution of these transporters during smoltification and seawater (SW) acclimation of Atlantic salmonSalmo salar. Emphasis was placed on Na+, K+-ATPase (NKA) and Na+, K+, Cl− co-transporter (NKCC) isoforms, at both transcriptional and protein levels, together with transcription of chloride channel genes. The nka α1c was the dominant isoform at the transcript level in both proximal and distal intestines; also, it was the most abundant isoform expressed in the basolateral membrane of enterocytes in the proximal intestine. This isoform was also abundantly expressed in the distal intestine in the lower part of the mucosal folds. The protein expression of intestinal Nkaα1c increased during smoltification. Immunostaining was localized to the basal membrane of the enterocytes in freshwater (FW) fish, and re-distributed to a lateral position after SW entry. Two other Nka isoforms, α1a and α1b, were expressed in the intestine but were not regulated to the same extent during smoltification and subsequent SW transfer. Their localization in the intestinal wall indicates a house-keeping function in excitatory tissues. The absorptive form of the NKCC-like isoform (sub-apically located NKCC2 and/or Na+, Cl−co-transporter) increased during smoltification and further after SW transfer. The cellular distribution changed from a diffuse expression in the sub-apical regions during smoltification to clustering of the transporters closer to the apical membrane after entry to SW. Furthermore, transcript abundance indicates that the mechanisms necessary for exit of chloride ions across the basolateral membrane and into the lateral intercellular space are present in the form of one or more of three different chloride channels: cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator I and II and chloride channel
Maximum-likelihood model averaging to profile clustering of site types across discrete linear sequences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang Zhang

2009-06-01

Full Text Available A major analytical challenge in computational biology is the detection and description of clusters of specified site types, such as polymorphic or substituted sites within DNA or protein sequences. Progress has been stymied by a lack of suitable methods to detect clusters and to estimate the extent of clustering in discrete linear sequences, particularly when there is no a priori specification of cluster size or cluster count. Here we derive and demonstrate a maximum likelihood method of hierarchical clustering. Our method incorporates a tripartite divide-and-conquer strategy that models sequence heterogeneity, delineates clusters, and yields a profile of the level of clustering associated with each site. The clustering model may be evaluated via model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion, the corrected Akaike Information Criterion, and the Bayesian Information Criterion. Furthermore, model averaging using weighted model likelihoods may be applied to incorporate model uncertainty into the profile of heterogeneity across sites. We evaluated our method by examining its performance on a number of simulated datasets as well as on empirical polymorphism data from diverse natural alleles of the Drosophila alcohol dehydrogenase gene. Our method yielded greater power for the detection of clustered sites across a breadth of parameter ranges, and achieved better accuracy and precision of estimation of clusters, than did the existing empirical cumulative distribution function statistics.
Bayesian psychometric scaling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

2015-01-01

In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item
Learning Bayesian Networks with Incomplete Data by Augmentation

OpenAIRE

Adel, Tameem; de Campos, Cassio P.

2016-01-01

We present new algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from data with missing values using a data augmentation approach. An exact Bayesian network learning algorithm is obtained by recasting the problem into a standard Bayesian network learning problem without missing data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact algorithm for this problem. As expected, the exact algorithm does not scale to large domains. We build on the exact method to create an approximate algorithm using a ...
Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

2018-01-01

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

2014-01-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++
An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

2014-03-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.
Quality Index Method (QIM) scheme developed for farmed Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar )

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sveinsdóttir, K.; Hyldig, Grethe; Martinsdóttir, E.

2003-01-01

The aim of the study was to develop 'Quality Index Method (QIM) scheme for raw, farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and to evaluate the scheme. in a shelf life study. QIM is based on the evaluation of key parameters in the deterioration of seafood's. Demerit points are assigned to selected...... parameters according to their importance and a Quality Index (QI) is established by cumulating the resulting scores. The maximum storage time in ice was determined with Quantitative Descriptive Analysis (QDA) of the salmon after cooking and found to be 20-21 days. This was used as a reference to enable...... prediction of the remaining storage time of raw salmon in ice with QIM. The calculated QI evolved linearly with storage time in ice (QI=0.82x (days in ice)+0.18, R-2=0.97). Individual salmon varied in QI within each storage day. However, the multivariate analysis (PLS1) demonstrated that storage time could...
A multimembership catalogue for 1876 open clusters using UCAC4 data

Science.gov (United States)

Sampedro, L.; Dias, W. S.; Alfaro, E. J.; Monteiro, H.; Molino, A.

2017-10-01

The main objective of this work is to determine the cluster members of 1876 open clusters, using positions and proper motions of the astrometric fourth United States Naval Observatory (USNO) CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC4). For this purpose, we apply three different methods, all based on a Bayesian approach, but with different formulations: a purely parametric method, another completely non-parametric algorithm and a third, recently developed by Sampedro & Alfaro, using both formulations at different steps of the whole process. The first and second statistical moments of the members' phase-space subspace, obtained after applying the three methods, are compared for every cluster. Although, on average, the three methods yield similar results, there are also specific differences between them, as well as for some particular clusters. The comparison with other published catalogues shows good agreement. We have also estimated, for the first time, the mean proper motion for a sample of 18 clusters. The results are organized in a single catalogue formed by two main files, one with the most relevant information for each cluster, partially including that in UCAC4, and the other showing the individual membership probabilities for each star in the cluster area. The final catalogue, with an interface design that enables an easy interaction with the user, is available in electronic format at the Stellar Systems Group (SSG-IAA) web site (http://ssg.iaa.es/en/content/sampedro-cluster-catalog).
Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...
Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

2013-01-01

In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…
Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...
Bayesian Statistics: Concepts and Applications in Animal Breeding – A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lsxmikant-Sambhaji Kokate

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Statistics uses two major approaches- conventional (or frequentist and Bayesian approach. Bayesian approach provides a complete paradigm for both statistical inference and decision making under uncertainty. Bayesian methods solve many of the difficulties faced by conventional statistical methods, and extend the applicability of statistical methods. It exploits the use of probabilistic models to formulate scientific problems. To use Bayesian statistics, there is computational difficulty and secondly, Bayesian methods require specifying prior probability distributions. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC methods were applied to overcome the computational difficulty, and interest in Bayesian methods was renewed. In Bayesian statistics, Bayesian structural equation model (SEM is used. It provides a powerful and flexible approach for studying quantitative traits for wide spectrum problems and thus it has no operational difficulties, with the exception of some complex cases. In this method, the problems are solved at ease, and the statisticians feel it comfortable with the particular way of expressing the results and employing the software available to analyze a large variety of problems.
Bayesian Mixed Hidden Markov Models: A Multi-Level Approach to Modeling Categorical Outcomes with Differential Misclassification

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yue; Berhane, Kiros

2014-01-01

Questionnaire-based health status outcomes are often prone to misclassification. When studying the effect of risk factors on such outcomes, ignoring any potential misclassification may lead to biased effect estimates. Analytical challenges posed by these misclassified outcomes are further complicated when simultaneously exploring factors for both the misclassification and health processes in a multi-level setting. To address these challenges, we propose a fully Bayesian Mixed Hidden Markov Model (BMHMM) for handling differential misclassification in categorical outcomes in a multi-level setting. The BMHMM generalizes the traditional Hidden Markov Model (HMM) by introducing random effects into three sets of HMM parameters for joint estimation of the prevalence, transition and misclassification probabilities. This formulation not only allows joint estimation of all three sets of parameters, but also accounts for cluster level heterogeneity based on a multi-level model structure. Using this novel approach, both the true health status prevalence and the transition probabilities between the health states during follow-up are modeled as functions of covariates. The observed, possibly misclassified, health states are related to the true, but unobserved, health states and covariates. Results from simulation studies are presented to validate the estimation procedure, to show the computational efficiency due to the Bayesian approach and also to illustrate the gains from the proposed method compared to existing methods that ignore outcome misclassification and cluster level heterogeneity. We apply the proposed method to examine the risk factors for both asthma transition and misclassification in the Southern California Children's Health Study (CHS). PMID:24254432
Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Rossi, Peter

2014-01-01

This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number
Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2014-01-06

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).
Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.; Pojonk, Oliver; Rosic, Bojana V.; Zander, Elmar

2014-01-01

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).
A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

2013-01-01

representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...
A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,
A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

A nonparametric Bayesian approach for genetic evaluation in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Journal of Animal Science ... the Bayesian and Classical models, a Bayesian procedure is provided which allows these random ... data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud and data from a simulation experiment are utilized. >
3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Rasmus

2000-01-01

We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....
Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopec, S.

1994-01-01

Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)
Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

Science.gov (United States)

2016-05-09

inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle
Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.
Improving Transparency and Replication in Bayesian Statistics : The WAMBS-Checklist

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens

2017-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are slowly creeping into all fields of science and are becoming ever more popular in applied research. Although it is very attractive to use Bayesian statistics, our personal experience has led us to believe that naively applying Bayesian methods can be dangerous for at
Reduced rearing density increases postrelease migration success of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Martin Hage; Johnsson, Jörgen I; Näslund, Joacim

2016-01-01

during rearing in the hatchery. However, individuals reared at reduced density had less eroded dorsal fins and opercula relative to those from the high-density treatment. In the stream, the downstream migration success was 16% higher for fish reared at reduced density than for conspecifics kept at high-density......The overall aim of this study was to investigate the effect of rearing density on the post-release survival of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) smolts during seaward migration. Fish were either reared at conventional hatchery density or at one-third of conventional density. Three hundred one-year old...... smolts from each density treatment were individually tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and released 3.2 km upstream of a stationary antenna array in a natural stream. There were no significant differences in length, body mass, or condition between fish from the two density treatments...
Development of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) eggs and alevins under varied temperature regimes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peterson, R H; Spinney, H C.E.; Sreedharan, A

1977-01-01

Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) eggs and alevins were raised under conditions where the temperature was systematically varied either at fertilization, at the eyed egg stage, or at hatching. Mortality was more than 20% in eggs started immediately after fertilization at constant incubation temperatures <4/sup 0/C as compared with 5% or less at temperatures >4/sup 0/C. Alevins that eyed at 8/sup 0/C and higher were progressively smaller the higher the temperature. The optimum temperature from fertilization to eye pigmentation was near 6/sup 0/C. Eyed eggs reared at lower temperatures until hatching were larger than those hatched at higher temperatures. This size differential was maintained until the yolk was completely absorbed at all posthatching temperatures investigated. Sudden decreases in temperature at the eyed egg and hatching stages induced severe edema of the alevin yolk sac, resulting in slower growth and increased mortality.
An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

Science.gov (United States)

J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

2006-01-01

Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...
Topography of the Flattest Surface on Earth: using ICESAT, GPS, and MISR to Measure Salt Surface Topography on Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia

Science.gov (United States)

Comstock, Robert L.; Bills, Bruce G.

2004-01-01

Salt flats are aptly named: they are composed largely of salt, and are maintained as nearly equipotential surfaces via frequent flooding. The salar de Uyuni, on the Altiplano in southwestern Bolivia, is the largest salt flat on Earth, with an area of 9,800 sq km. Except for a few bedrock islands, it has less than 40 cm of relief. The upper-most salt unit averages 5 m thick and contains 50 cu km of nearly pure halite. It includes most of the salt that was in solution in paleolake Minchin, which attained a maximum area of 60,000 sq km and a maximum depth of 150 m, roughly 15 kyr ago. Despite approx. 10 m of differential isostatic rebound since deposition, the salar surface has been actively maintained as an extraordinarily flat and smooth surface by annual flooding during the rainy season. We have used the strong optical absorption properties of water in the visible band to map spatial variations in water depth during a time when the salar was flooded. As water depth increases, the initially pure white surface appears both darker and bluer. We utilized MISR images taken during the interval from April to November 2001. The red and infra-red bands (672 and 867 nm wavelength) were most useful since the water depth is small and the absorption at those wavelengths is quite strong. Nadir pointed MISR images have 275 m spatial resolution. To aid in our evaluation of water depth variations over the saiar surface, we utilized two sources of direct topographic measurements: several ICESAT altimetry tracks cross the area, and a 40x50 km GPS grid was surveyed to calibrate ICESAT. A difficulty in using these data types is that both give salt surface elevations relative to the ellipsoid, whereas the water surface will, in the absence of wind or tidal disturbances, follow an equipotential surface. Geoid height is not known to the required accuracy of a few cm in the central Andes. As a result, before comparing optical absorption from MISR to salt surface topography from GPS or
Salmo salar and Esox lucius full-length cDNA sequences reveal changes in evolutionary pressures on a post-tetraploidization genome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Holt Robert A

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Salmonids are one of the most intensely studied fish, in part due to their economic and environmental importance, and in part due to a recent whole genome duplication in the common ancestor of salmonids. This duplication greatly impacts species diversification, functional specialization, and adaptation. Extensive new genomic resources have recently become available for Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar, but documentation of allelic versus duplicate reference genes remains a major uncertainty in the complete characterization of its genome and its evolution. Results From existing expressed sequence tag (EST resources and three new full-length cDNA libraries, 9,057 reference quality full-length gene insert clones were identified for Atlantic salmon. A further 1,365 reference full-length clones were annotated from 29,221 northern pike (Esox lucius ESTs. Pairwise dN/dS comparisons within each of 408 sets of duplicated salmon genes using northern pike as a diploid out-group show asymmetric relaxation of selection on salmon duplicates. Conclusions 9,057 full-length reference genes were characterized in S. salar and can be used to identify alleles and gene family members. Comparisons of duplicated genes show that while purifying selection is the predominant force acting on both duplicates, consistent with retention of functionality in both copies, some relaxation of pressure on gene duplicates can be identified. In addition, there is evidence that evolution has acted asymmetrically on paralogs, allowing one of the pair to diverge at a faster rate.
Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

CERN Document Server

Kruschke, John K

2011-01-01

There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all
Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

2000-01-01

A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)
BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.
Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

CERN Document Server

Candy, James V

2016-01-01

This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...
Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-01

years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11
A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition

OpenAIRE

Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick

2007-01-01

URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...
Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit

KAUST Repository

Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

2013-01-01

A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics
Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

OpenAIRE

Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike

2016-01-01

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...

Exploring the IMF of star clusters: a joint SLUG and LEGUS effort

Science.gov (United States)

Ashworth, G.; Fumagalli, M.; Krumholz, M. R.; Adamo, A.; Calzetti, D.; Chandar, R.; Cignoni, M.; Dale, D.; Elmegreen, B. G.; Gallagher, J. S., III; Gouliermis, D. A.; Grasha, K.; Grebel, E. K.; Johnson, K. E.; Lee, J.; Tosi, M.; Wofford, A.

2017-08-01

We present the implementation of a Bayesian formalism within the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) stellar population synthesis code, which is designed to investigate variations in the initial mass function (IMF) of star clusters. By comparing observed cluster photometry to large libraries of clusters simulated with a continuously varying IMF, our formalism yields the posterior probability distribution function (PDF) of the cluster mass, age and extinction, jointly with the parameters describing the IMF. We apply this formalism to a sample of star clusters from the nearby galaxy NGC 628, for which broad-band photometry in five filters is available as part of the Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). After allowing the upper-end slope of the IMF (α3) to vary, we recover PDFs for the mass, age and extinction that are broadly consistent with what is found when assuming an invariant Kroupa IMF. However, the posterior PDF for α3 is very broad due to a strong degeneracy with the cluster mass, and it is found to be sensitive to the choice of priors, particularly on the cluster mass. We find only a modest improvement in the constraining power of α3 when adding Hα photometry from the companion Hα-LEGUS survey. Conversely, Hα photometry significantly improves the age determination, reducing the frequency of multi-modal PDFs. With the aid of mock clusters, we quantify the degeneracy between physical parameters, showing how constraints on the cluster mass that are independent of photometry can be used to pin down the IMF properties of star clusters.
Bayesian Predictive Inference of a Proportion Under a Twofold Small-Area Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nandram Balgobin

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We extend the twofold small-area model of Stukel and Rao (1997; 1999 to accommodate binary data. An example is the Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS, in which pass-fail data for mathematics of students from US schools (clusters are available at the third grade by regions and communities (small areas. We compare the finite population proportions of these small areas. We present a hierarchical Bayesian model in which the firststage binary responses have independent Bernoulli distributions, and each subsequent stage is modeled using a beta distribution, which is parameterized by its mean and a correlation coefficient. This twofold small-area model has an intracluster correlation at the first stage and an intercluster correlation at the second stage. The final-stage mean and all correlations are assumed to be noninformative independent random variables. We show how to infer the finite population proportion of each area. We have applied our models to synthetic TIMSS data to show that the twofold model is preferred over a onefold small-area model that ignores the clustering within areas. We further compare these models using a simulation study, which shows that the intracluster correlation is particularly important.
Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.
Comparative Study of Inference Methods for Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brouwer, Thomas; Frellsen, Jes; Liò, Pietro

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri......-factorisation, and compare non-probabilistic inference, Gibbs sampling, variational Bayesian inference, and a maximum-a-posteriori approach. The variational approach is new for the Bayesian nonnegative models. We compare their convergence, and robustness to noise and sparsity of the data, on both synthetic and real...
Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

2018-01-01

This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.
Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?

Science.gov (United States)

Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R

2017-08-07

The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also
Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Romeijn, J.-W.

2011-01-01

Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer
Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, Denny; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Romeijn, Jan-Willem

Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer
Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with
Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Berry, Donald A

1996-01-01

...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...
Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.
A Bayesian Optimal Design for Sequential Accelerated Degradation Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyang Li

2017-07-01

Full Text Available When optimizing an accelerated degradation testing (ADT plan, the initial values of unknown model parameters must be pre-specified. However, it is usually difficult to obtain the exact values, since many uncertainties are embedded in these parameters. Bayesian ADT optimal design was presented to address this problem by using prior distributions to capture these uncertainties. Nevertheless, when the difference between a prior distribution and actual situation is large, the existing Bayesian optimal design might cause some over-testing or under-testing issues. For example, the implemented ADT following the optimal ADT plan consumes too much testing resources or few accelerated degradation data are obtained during the ADT. To overcome these obstacles, a Bayesian sequential step-down-stress ADT design is proposed in this article. During the sequential ADT, the test under the highest stress level is firstly conducted based on the initial prior information to quickly generate degradation data. Then, the data collected under higher stress levels are employed to construct the prior distributions for the test design under lower stress levels by using the Bayesian inference. In the process of optimization, the inverse Gaussian (IG process is assumed to describe the degradation paths, and the Bayesian D-optimality is selected as the optimal objective. A case study on an electrical connector’s ADT plan is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian sequential ADT design method. Compared with the results from a typical static Bayesian ADT plan, the proposed design could guarantee more stable and precise estimations of different reliability measures.
A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling

OpenAIRE

Lo, Albert Y.

1993-01-01

Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...
Bayesian Geostatistical Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

2006-01-01

locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...
Tissue astaxanthin and canthaxanthin distribution in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar).

Science.gov (United States)

Page, G I; Davies, S J

2006-01-01

A comparative investigation of tissue carotenoid distribution between rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, and Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, was undertaken to identify the relative efficiency of utilization of astaxanthin and canthaxanthin. Higher apparent digestibility coefficients (ADCs) (96% in trout vs. 28-31% in salmon; Ptrout vs. 5.5% in salmon; Ptrout. Astaxanthin deposition was higher than canthaxanthin in rainbow trout, while the reverse was true for Atlantic salmon, suggesting species-specificity in carotenoid utilization. The white muscle (95% in trout vs. 93% in salmon) and kidneys (0.5% in trout vs. 0.2% in salmon) represented higher proportions of the total body carotenoid pool in rainbow trout than in Atlantic salmon (Ptrout; Ptrout. Liver catabolism is suspected to be a critical determinant in carotenoid clearance, with higher catabolism expected in Atlantic salmon than in rainbow trout.
A Bayesian, generalized frailty model for comet assays.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghebretinsae, Aklilu Habteab; Faes, Christel; Molenberghs, Geert; De Boeck, Marlies; Geys, Helena

2013-05-01

This paper proposes a flexible modeling approach for so-called comet assay data regularly encountered in preclinical research. While such data consist of non-Gaussian outcomes in a multilevel hierarchical structure, traditional analyses typically completely or partly ignore this hierarchical nature by summarizing measurements within a cluster. Non-Gaussian outcomes are often modeled using exponential family models. This is true not only for binary and count data, but also for, example, time-to-event outcomes. Two important reasons for extending this family are for (1) the possible occurrence of overdispersion, meaning that the variability in the data may not be adequately described by the models, which often exhibit a prescribed mean-variance link, and (2) the accommodation of a hierarchical structure in the data, owing to clustering in the data. The first issue is dealt with through so-called overdispersion models. Clustering is often accommodated through the inclusion of random subject-specific effects. Though not always, one conventionally assumes such random effects to be normally distributed. In the case of time-to-event data, one encounters, for example, the gamma frailty model (Duchateau and Janssen, 2007 ). While both of these issues may occur simultaneously, models combining both are uncommon. Molenberghs et al. ( 2010 ) proposed a broad class of generalized linear models accommodating overdispersion and clustering through two separate sets of random effects. Here, we use this method to model data from a comet assay with a three-level hierarchical structure. Although a conjugate gamma random effect is used for the overdispersion random effect, both gamma and normal random effects are considered for the hierarchical random effect. Apart from model formulation, we place emphasis on Bayesian estimation. Our proposed method has an upper hand over the traditional analysis in that it (1) uses the appropriate distribution stipulated in the literature; (2) deals
Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I : Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Marsman, M.; Jamil, T.; Ly, A.; Verhagen, J.; Love, J.; Selker, R.; Gronau, Q.F.; Šmíra, M.; Epskamp, S.; Matzke, D.; Rouder, J.N.; Morey, R.D.

2018-01-01

Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing present attractive alternatives to classical inference using confidence intervals and p values. In part I of this series we outline ten prominent advantages of the Bayesian approach. Many of these advantages translate to concrete
A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development.

Science.gov (United States)

Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Xu, Fei

2011-09-01

We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the what, the how, and the why of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for developmentalists. We emphasize a qualitative understanding of Bayesian inference, but also include information about additional resources for those interested in the cognitive science applications, mathematical foundations, or machine learning details in more depth. In addition, we discuss some important interpretation issues that often arise when evaluating Bayesian models in cognitive science. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

2018-04-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.
Application of Quality Index Method (QIM) scheme in shelf-life study of farmed Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar )

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sveinsdóttir, K.; Martinsdóttir, E.; Hyldig, Grethe

2002-01-01

measurements (compression test). Maximum storage time in ice was determined with QDA and fat content by Soxhlet extraction. A high correlation between QIM and storage time in ice was found. Storage time could be predicted with +/- 2 d. TVC increased exponentially with storage and was dominated by H2S......Salmon (Salmo salar) was stored in ice up to 24 d, and changes during storage were observed with sensory evaluation using the Quality Index Method (QIM), and Quantitative Descriptive Analysis (QDA), total viable counts (TVC), hydrogen sulfide (H2S)-producing bacteria, and instrumental texture......-producing bacteria after 20 d in ice, which was the maximum storage time. Texture measurements indicated softening of salmon flesh with storage...

Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

2012-01-01

This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)
Bayesian Dark Knowledge

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.

2015-01-01

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple
Bayesian grid matching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

2003-01-01

A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...
An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly; Clifton, James; van de Schoot, A.G.J.; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-01-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of Health Psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation
Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.
A Bayesian approach to particle identification in ALICE

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

Among the LHC experiments, ALICE has unique particle identification (PID) capabilities exploiting different types of detectors. During Run 1, a Bayesian approach to PID was developed and intensively tested. It facilitates the combination of information from different sub-systems. The adopted methodology and formalism as well as the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE will be reviewed. Results are presented with PID performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight using information from the TPC and TOF detectors, respectively. Methods to extract priors from data and to compare PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities in data and Monte Carlo using high-purity samples of identified particles will be presented. Bayesian PID results were found consistent with previous measurements published by ALICE. The Bayesian PID approach gives a higher signal-to-background ratio and a similar or larger statist...
Optimal Detection under the Restricted Bayesian Criterion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shujun Liu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to find a suitable decision rule for a binary composite hypothesis-testing problem with a partial or coarse prior distribution. To alleviate the negative impact of the information uncertainty, a constraint is considered that the maximum conditional risk cannot be greater than a predefined value. Therefore, the objective of this paper becomes to find the optimal decision rule to minimize the Bayes risk under the constraint. By applying the Lagrange duality, the constrained optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained optimization problem. In doing so, the restricted Bayesian decision rule is obtained as a classical Bayesian decision rule corresponding to a modified prior distribution. Based on this transformation, the optimal restricted Bayesian decision rule is analyzed and the corresponding algorithm is developed. Furthermore, the relation between the Bayes risk and the predefined value of the constraint is also discussed. The Bayes risk obtained via the restricted Bayesian decision rule is a strictly decreasing and convex function of the constraint on the maximum conditional risk. Finally, the numerical results including a detection example are presented and agree with the theoretical results.
Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

2003-01-01

The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)
Towards Bayesian Inference of the Fast-Ion Distribution Function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W.; Salewski, Mirko

2012-01-01

sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities, while prior probabilities enforce physical constraints. As an initial step, this poster uses Bayesian statistics to infer the DIII-D electron density profile from multiple diagnostic measurements. Likelihood functions....... However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and ``weight functions" that describe the phase space...
Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.
A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework
Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio–Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio–Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever

Science.gov (United States)

Raghavan, Ram K.; Goodin, Douglas G.; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A.; Ganta, Roman R.

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio–economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio–temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio–economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main–effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate–change impacts on tick–borne diseases are discussed. PMID:26942604
Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

Science.gov (United States)

Raghavan, Ram K; Goodin, Douglas G; Neises, Daniel; Anderson, Gary A; Ganta, Roman R

2016-01-01

This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C) in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.
Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.
The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.
Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.
Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

2013-01-01

This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...
Bayesian-based localization in inhomogeneous transmission media

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nadimi, E. S.; Blanes-Vidal, V.; Johansen, P. M.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network with heteroge......In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network...... with heterogeneous transmission medium as a function of the given RSS measurements and the characteristics of the heterogeneous medium. The results of this study show that the localization mean square error (MSE) of the Bayesian-based method outperformed all other existing localization approaches. © 2013 ACM....
Bayesian modeling of ChIP-chip data using latent variables.

KAUST Repository

Wu, Mingqi

2009-10-26

BACKGROUND: The ChIP-chip technology has been used in a wide range of biomedical studies, such as identification of human transcription factor binding sites, investigation of DNA methylation, and investigation of histone modifications in animals and plants. Various methods have been proposed in the literature for analyzing the ChIP-chip data, such as the sliding window methods, the hidden Markov model-based methods, and Bayesian methods. Although, due to the integrated consideration of uncertainty of the models and model parameters, Bayesian methods can potentially work better than the other two classes of methods, the existing Bayesian methods do not perform satisfactorily. They usually require multiple replicates or some extra experimental information to parametrize the model, and long CPU time due to involving of MCMC simulations. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a Bayesian latent model for the ChIP-chip data. The new model mainly differs from the existing Bayesian models, such as the joint deconvolution model, the hierarchical gamma mixture model, and the Bayesian hierarchical model, in two respects. Firstly, it works on the difference between the averaged treatment and control samples. This enables the use of a simple model for the data, which avoids the probe-specific effect and the sample (control/treatment) effect. As a consequence, this enables an efficient MCMC simulation of the posterior distribution of the model, and also makes the model more robust to the outliers. Secondly, it models the neighboring dependence of probes by introducing a latent indicator vector. A truncated Poisson prior distribution is assumed for the latent indicator variable, with the rationale being justified at length. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian latent method is successfully applied to real and ten simulated datasets, with comparisons with some of the existing Bayesian methods, hidden Markov model methods, and sliding window methods. The numerical results indicate that the
Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

2016-01-01

Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a
Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Takiyama, Ken

2016-05-01

Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.
Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

2013-01-01

an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...
The Gaia-ESO Survey: open clusters in Gaia-DR1 . A way forward to stellar age calibration

Science.gov (United States)

Randich, S.; Tognelli, E.; Jackson, R.; Jeffries, R. D.; Degl'Innocenti, S.; Pancino, E.; Re Fiorentin, P.; Spagna, A.; Sacco, G.; Bragaglia, A.; Magrini, L.; Prada Moroni, P. G.; Alfaro, E.; Franciosini, E.; Morbidelli, L.; Roccatagliata, V.; Bouy, H.; Bravi, L.; Jiménez-Esteban, F. M.; Jordi, C.; Zari, E.; Tautvaišiene, G.; Drazdauskas, A.; Mikolaitis, S.; Gilmore, G.; Feltzing, S.; Vallenari, A.; Bensby, T.; Koposov, S.; Korn, A.; Lanzafame, A.; Smiljanic, R.; Bayo, A.; Carraro, G.; Costado, M. T.; Heiter, U.; Hourihane, A.; Jofré, P.; Lewis, J.; Monaco, L.; Prisinzano, L.; Sbordone, L.; Sousa, S. G.; Worley, C. C.; Zaggia, S.

2018-05-01

Context. Determination and calibration of the ages of stars, which heavily rely on stellar evolutionary models, are very challenging, while representing a crucial aspect in many astrophysical areas. Aims: We describe the methodologies that, taking advantage of Gaia-DR1 and the Gaia-ESO Survey data, enable the comparison of observed open star cluster sequences with stellar evolutionary models. The final, long-term goal is the exploitation of open clusters as age calibrators. Methods: We perform a homogeneous analysis of eight open clusters using the Gaia-DR1 TGAS catalogue for bright members and information from the Gaia-ESO Survey for fainter stars. Cluster membership probabilities for the Gaia-ESO Survey targets are derived based on several spectroscopic tracers. The Gaia-ESO Survey also provides the cluster chemical composition. We obtain cluster parallaxes using two methods. The first one relies on the astrometric selection of a sample of bona fide members, while the other one fits the parallax distribution of a larger sample of TGAS sources. Ages and reddening values are recovered through a Bayesian analysis using the 2MASS magnitudes and three sets of standard models. Lithium depletion boundary (LDB) ages are also determined using literature observations and the same models employed for the Bayesian analysis. Results: For all but one cluster, parallaxes derived by us agree with those presented in Gaia Collaboration (2017, A&A, 601, A19), while a discrepancy is found for NGC 2516; we provide evidence supporting our own determination. Inferred cluster ages are robust against models and are generally consistent with literature values. Conclusions: The systematic parallax errors inherent in the Gaia DR1 data presently limit the precision of our results. Nevertheless, we have been able to place these eight clusters onto the same age scale for the first time, with good agreement between isochronal and LDB ages where there is overlap. Our approach appears promising
Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric D. Johnson

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.
Being Bayesian in a quantum world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuchs, C.

2005-01-01

Full text: To be a Bayesian about probability theory is to accept that probabilities represent subjective degrees of belief and nothing more. This is in distinction to the idea that probabilities represent long-term frequencies or objective propensities. But, how can a subjective account of probabilities coexist with the existence of quantum mechanics? To accept quantum mechanics is to accept the calculational apparatus of quantum states and the Born rule for determining probabilities in a quantum measurement. If there ever were a place for probabilities to be objective, it ought to be here. This raises the question of whether Bayesianism and quantum mechanics are compatible at all. For the Bayesian, it only suggests that we should rethink what quantum mechanics is about. Is it 'law of nature' or really more 'law of thought'? From transistors to lasers, the evidence is in that we live in a quantum world. One could infer from this that all the elements in the quantum formalism necessarily mirror nature itself: wave functions are so successful as calculational tools precisely because they represent elements of reality. A more Bayesian-like perspective is that if wave functions generate probabilities, then they too must be Bayesian degrees of belief, with all that such a radical idea entails. In particular, quantum probabilities have no firmer hold on reality than the word 'belief' in 'degrees of belief' already indicates. From this perspective, the only sense in which the quantum formalism mirrors nature is through the constraints it places on gambling agents who would like to better navigate through world. One might think that this is thin information, but it is not insubstantial. To the extent that an agent should use quantum mechanics for his uncertainty accounting rather than some other theory tells us something about the world itself - i.e., the world independent of the agent and his particular beliefs at any moment. In this talk, I will try to shore up these
HICOSMO - X-ray analysis of a complete sample of galaxy clusters

Science.gov (United States)

Schellenberger, G.; Reiprich, T.

2017-10-01

Galaxy clusters are known to be the largest virialized objects in the Universe. Based on the theory of structure formation one can use them as cosmological probes, since they originate from collapsed overdensities in the early Universe and witness its history. The X-ray regime provides the unique possibility to measure in detail the most massive visible component, the intra cluster medium. Using Chandra observations of a local sample of 64 bright clusters (HIFLUGCS) we provide total (hydrostatic) and gas mass estimates of each cluster individually. Making use of the completeness of the sample we quantify two interesting cosmological parameters by a Bayesian cosmological likelihood analysis. We find Ω_{M}=0.3±0.01 and σ_{8}=0.79±0.03 (statistical uncertainties) using our default analysis strategy combining both, a mass function analysis and the gas mass fraction results. The main sources of biases that we discuss and correct here are (1) the influence of galaxy groups (higher incompleteness in parent samples and a differing behavior of the L_{x} - M relation), (2) the hydrostatic mass bias (as determined by recent hydrodynamical simulations), (3) the extrapolation of the total mass (comparing various methods), (4) the theoretical halo mass function and (5) other cosmological (non-negligible neutrino mass), and instrumental (calibration) effects.
Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment of corroded interdependent pipe networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Mokhtar, El Hassene; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Laggoune, Radouane

2016-01-01

Pipelines under corrosion are subject to various environment conditions, and consequently it becomes difficult to build realistic corrosion models. In the present work, a Bayesian methodology is proposed to allow for updating the corrosion model parameters according to the evolution of environmental conditions. For reliability assessment of dependent structures, Bayesian networks are used to provide interesting qualitative and quantitative description of the information in the system. The qualitative contribution lies in the modeling of complex system, composed by dependent pipelines, as a Bayesian network. The quantitative one lies in the evaluation of the dependencies between pipelines by the use of a new method for the generation of conditional probability tables. The effectiveness of Bayesian updating is illustrated through an application where the new reliability of degraded (corroded) pipe networks is assessed. - Highlights: • A methodology for Bayesian network modeling of pipe networks is proposed. • Bayesian approach based on Metropolis - Hastings algorithm is conducted for corrosion model updating. • The reliability of corroded pipe network is assessed by considering the interdependencies between the pipelines.
Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.
Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...
Bayesian statistical inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruno De Finetti

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.
Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

OpenAIRE

Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

2000-01-01

In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.
Transcriptome sequencing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) notochord prior to development of the vertebrae provides clues to regulation of positional fate, chordoblast lineage and mineralisation

OpenAIRE

Wang, Shou; Furmanek, Tomasz; Kryvi, Harald; Krossøy, Christel; Totland, Geir Kåre; Grotmol, Sindre; Wargelius, Anna

2014-01-01

Background In teleosts such as Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.), segmentation and subsequent mineralisation of the notochord during embryonic stages are essential for normal vertebrae formation. However, the molecular mechanisms leading to segmentation and mineralisation of the notochord are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify genes/pathways acting in gradients over time and along the anterior-posterior axis during notochord segmentation and immediately prior to mineralis...
Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miočević, M.; MacKinnon, David; Levy, Roy

2017-01-01

Bayesian methods have the potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This article compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product,
Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.
Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2003-01-01

This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model
Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD
Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1994-01-01

Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision
Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA

CERN Document Server

Blangiardo, Marta

2015-01-01

Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr
A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

Science.gov (United States)

Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

2011-03-01

This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.
MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

2011-01-01

This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.
A two step Bayesian approach for genomic prediction of breeding values.

Science.gov (United States)

Shariati, Mohammad M; Sørensen, Peter; Janss, Luc

2012-05-21

In genomic models that assign an individual variance to each marker, the contribution of one marker to the posterior distribution of the marker variance is only one degree of freedom (df), which introduces many variance parameters with only little information per variance parameter. A better alternative could be to form clusters of markers with similar effects where markers in a cluster have a common variance. Therefore, the influence of each marker group of size p on the posterior distribution of the marker variances will be p df. The simulated data from the 15th QTL-MAS workshop were analyzed such that SNP markers were ranked based on their effects and markers with similar estimated effects were grouped together. In step 1, all markers with minor allele frequency more than 0.01 were included in a SNP-BLUP prediction model. In step 2, markers were ranked based on their estimated variance on the trait in step 1 and each 150 markers were assigned to one group with a common variance. In further analyses, subsets of 1500 and 450 markers with largest effects in step 2 were kept in the prediction model. Grouping markers outperformed SNP-BLUP model in terms of accuracy of predicted breeding values. However, the accuracies of predicted breeding values were lower than Bayesian methods with marker specific variances. Grouping markers is less flexible than allowing each marker to have a specific marker variance but, by grouping, the power to estimate marker variances increases. A prior knowledge of the genetic architecture of the trait is necessary for clustering markers and appropriate prior parameterization.
Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

CERN Document Server

Groer, Peter G

2002-01-01

We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...
Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

2014-01-01

This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...
Characterization of full-length sequenced cDNA inserts (FLIcs) from Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Science.gov (United States)

Andreassen, Rune; Lunner, Sigbjørn; Høyheim, Bjørn

2009-01-01

Background Sequencing of the Atlantic salmon genome is now being planned by an international research consortium. Full-length sequenced inserts from cDNAs (FLIcs) are an important tool for correct annotation and clustering of the genomic sequence in any species. The large amount of highly similar duplicate sequences caused by the relatively recent genome duplication in the salmonid ancestor represents a particular challenge for the genome project. FLIcs will therefore be an extremely useful resource for the Atlantic salmon sequencing project. In addition to be helpful in order to distinguish between duplicate genome regions and in determining correct gene structures, FLIcs are an important resource for functional genomic studies and for investigation of regulatory elements controlling gene expression. In contrast to the large number of ESTs available, including the ESTs from 23 developmental and tissue specific cDNA libraries contributed by the Salmon Genome Project (SGP), the number of sequences where the full-length of the cDNA insert has been determined has been small. Results High quality full-length insert sequences from 560 pre-smolt white muscle tissue specific cDNAs were generated, accession numbers [GenBank: BT043497 - BT044056]. Five hundred and ten (91%) of the transcripts were annotated using Gene Ontology (GO) terms and 440 of the FLIcs are likely to contain a complete coding sequence (cCDS). The sequence information was used to identify putative paralogs, characterize salmon Kozak motifs, polyadenylation signal variation and to identify motifs likely to be involved in the regulation of particular genes. Finally, conserved 7-mers in the 3'UTRs were identified, of which some were identical to miRNA target sequences. Conclusion This paper describes the first Atlantic salmon FLIcs from a tissue and developmental stage specific cDNA library. We have demonstrated that many FLIcs contained a complete coding sequence (cCDS). This suggests that the remaining c
Characterization of full-length sequenced cDNA inserts (FLIcs from Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lunner Sigbjørn

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Sequencing of the Atlantic salmon genome is now being planned by an international research consortium. Full-length sequenced inserts from cDNAs (FLIcs are an important tool for correct annotation and clustering of the genomic sequence in any species. The large amount of highly similar duplicate sequences caused by the relatively recent genome duplication in the salmonid ancestor represents a particular challenge for the genome project. FLIcs will therefore be an extremely useful resource for the Atlantic salmon sequencing project. In addition to be helpful in order to distinguish between duplicate genome regions and in determining correct gene structures, FLIcs are an important resource for functional genomic studies and for investigation of regulatory elements controlling gene expression. In contrast to the large number of ESTs available, including the ESTs from 23 developmental and tissue specific cDNA libraries contributed by the Salmon Genome Project (SGP, the number of sequences where the full-length of the cDNA insert has been determined has been small. Results High quality full-length insert sequences from 560 pre-smolt white muscle tissue specific cDNAs were generated, accession numbers [GenBank: BT043497 - BT044056]. Five hundred and ten (91% of the transcripts were annotated using Gene Ontology (GO terms and 440 of the FLIcs are likely to contain a complete coding sequence (cCDS. The sequence information was used to identify putative paralogs, characterize salmon Kozak motifs, polyadenylation signal variation and to identify motifs likely to be involved in the regulation of particular genes. Finally, conserved 7-mers in the 3'UTRs were identified, of which some were identical to miRNA target sequences. Conclusion This paper describes the first Atlantic salmon FLIcs from a tissue and developmental stage specific cDNA library. We have demonstrated that many FLIcs contained a complete coding sequence (cCDS. This
BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.
Digest: Demographic inferences accounting for selection at linked sites†.

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Alexis; Duranton, Maud

2018-05-16

Complex demography and selection at linked sites can generate spurious signatures of divergent selection. Unfortunately, many attempts at demographic inference consider overly simple models and neglect the effect of selection at linked sites. In this issue, Rougemont and Bernatchez (2018) applied an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) framework that accounts for indirect selection to reveal a complex history of secondary contacts in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that might explain a high rate of latitudinal clines in this species. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.
General and Local: Averaged k-Dependence Bayesian Classifiers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Limin Wang

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The inference of a general Bayesian network has been shown to be an NP-hard problem, even for approximate solutions. Although k-dependence Bayesian (KDB classifier can construct at arbitrary points (values of k along the attribute dependence spectrum, it cannot identify the changes of interdependencies when attributes take different values. Local KDB, which learns in the framework of KDB, is proposed in this study to describe the local dependencies implicated in each test instance. Based on the analysis of functional dependencies, substitution-elimination resolution, a new type of semi-naive Bayesian operation, is proposed to substitute or eliminate generalization to achieve accurate estimation of conditional probability distribution while reducing computational complexity. The final classifier, averaged k-dependence Bayesian (AKDB classifiers, will average the output of KDB and local KDB. Experimental results on the repository of machine learning databases from the University of California Irvine (UCI showed that AKDB has significant advantages in zero-one loss and bias relative to naive Bayes (NB, tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN, Averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE, and KDB. Moreover, KDB and local KDB show mutually complementary characteristics with respect to variance.
A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.
DEEP GALEX OBSERVATIONS OF THE COMA CLUSTER: SOURCE CATALOG AND GALAXY COUNTS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hammer, D.; Hornschemeier, A. E.; Miller, N.; Jenkins, L.; Mobasher, B.; Smith, R.; Arnouts, S.; Milliard, B.

2010-01-01

We present a source catalog from a deep 26 ks Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX) observation of the Coma cluster in the far-UV (FUV; 1530 A) and near-UV (NUV; 2310 A) wavebands. The observed field is centered ∼0. 0 9 (1.6 Mpc) southwest of the Coma core in a well-studied region of the cluster known as 'Coma-3'. The entire field is located within the apparent virial radius of the Coma cluster, and has optical photometric coverage with Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and deep spectroscopic coverage to r ∼ 21. We detect GALEX sources to NUV = 24.5 and FUV = 25.0, which corresponds to a star formation rate of ∼10 -3 M sun yr -1 for galaxies at the distance of Coma. We have assembled a catalog of 9700 galaxies with GALEX and SDSS photometry, including 242 spectroscopically confirmed Coma member galaxies that span a large range of galaxy types from giant spirals and elliptical galaxies to dwarf irregular and early-type galaxies. The full multi-wavelength catalog (cluster plus background galaxies) is ∼80% complete to NUV = 23 and FUV = 23.5. The GALEX images presented here are very deep and include detections of many resolved cluster members superposed on a dense field of unresolved background galaxies. This required a two-fold approach to generating a source catalog: we used a Bayesian deblending algorithm to measure faint and compact sources (using SDSS coordinates as position prior), and used the GALEX pipeline catalog for bright and/or extended objects. We performed simulations to assess the importance of systematic effects (e.g., object blends, source confusion, Eddington Bias) that influence the source detection and photometry when using both methods. The Bayesian deblending method roughly doubles the number of source detections and provides reliable photometry to a few magnitudes deeper than the GALEX pipeline catalog. This method is free from source confusion over the UV magnitude range studied here; we estimate that the GALEX pipeline catalogs are
Clustering of near clusters versus cluster compactness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Gao; Yipeng Jing

1989-01-01

The clustering properties of near Zwicky clusters are studied by using the two-point angular correlation function. The angular correlation functions for compact and medium compact clusters, for open clusters, and for all near Zwicky clusters are estimated. The results show much stronger clustering for compact and medium compact clusters than for open clusters, and that open clusters have nearly the same clustering strength as galaxies. A detailed study of the compactness-dependence of correlation function strength is worth investigating. (author)
Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

2017-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian
Accelerated recovery of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) from effects of crowding by swimming.

Science.gov (United States)

Veiseth, Eva; Fjaera, Svein Olav; Bjerkeng, Bjørn; Skjervold, Per Olav

2006-07-01

The effects of post-crowding swimming velocity (0, 0.35, and 0.70 m/s) and recovery time (1.5, 6, and 12 h) on physiological recovery and processing quality parameters of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) were determined. Atlantic salmon crowded to a density similar to that of a commercial slaughter process (>200 kg/m(3), 40 min) were transferred to a swimming chamber for recovery treatment. Osmolality and concentrations of cortisol, glucose and lactate in blood plasma were used as physiological stress indicators, whereas image analyses of extent and duration of rigor contraction, and fillet gaping were used as measures of processing quality. Crowded salmon had a 5.8-fold higher plasma cortisol concentration than control salmon (Prigor mortis contraction. However, subjecting crowded salmon to active swimming for 6 h before slaughter delayed the onset of rigor mortis contraction from 2.5 to 7.5 h post mortem. The extent of rigor mortis contraction was also affected by crowding and post-stress swimming activity (Prigor mortis contraction, which has a positive technological implication for the salmon processing industry.
A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior
Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

Science.gov (United States)

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.
Comparison of sampling techniques for Bayesian parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Allison, Rupert; Dunkley, Joanna

2014-02-01

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the posterior probability distribution we have to decide how to explore parameter space. Here we compare three prescriptions for how parameter space is navigated, discussing their relative merits. We consider Metropolis-Hasting sampling, nested sampling and affine-invariant ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We focus on their performance on toy-model Gaussian likelihoods and on a real-world cosmological data set. We outline the sampling algorithms themselves and elaborate on performance diagnostics such as convergence time, scope for parallelization, dimensional scaling, requisite tunings and suitability for non-Gaussian distributions. We find that nested sampling delivers high-fidelity estimates for posterior statistics at low computational cost, and should be adopted in favour of Metropolis-Hastings in many cases. Affine-invariant MCMC is competitive when computing clusters can be utilized for massive parallelization. Affine-invariant MCMC and existing extensions to nested sampling naturally probe multimodal and curving distributions.
Cluster-cluster clustering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnes, J.; Dekel, A.; Efstathiou, G.; Frenk, C.S.; Yale Univ., New Haven, CT; California Univ., Santa Barbara; Cambridge Univ., England; Sussex Univ., Brighton, England)

1985-01-01

The cluster correlation function xi sub c(r) is compared with the particle correlation function, xi(r) in cosmological N-body simulations with a wide range of initial conditions. The experiments include scale-free initial conditions, pancake models with a coherence length in the initial density field, and hybrid models. Three N-body techniques and two cluster-finding algorithms are used. In scale-free models with white noise initial conditions, xi sub c and xi are essentially identical. In scale-free models with more power on large scales, it is found that the amplitude of xi sub c increases with cluster richness; in this case the clusters give a biased estimate of the particle correlations. In the pancake and hybrid models (with n = 0 or 1), xi sub c is steeper than xi, but the cluster correlation length exceeds that of the points by less than a factor of 2, independent of cluster richness. Thus the high amplitude of xi sub c found in studies of rich clusters of galaxies is inconsistent with white noise and pancake models and may indicate a primordial fluctuation spectrum with substantial power on large scales. 30 references
Bayesian logistic regression analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

2007-01-01

In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...
Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

CERN Document Server

Adam, Jaroslav; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahn, Sang Un; Aiola, Salvatore; Akindinov, Alexander; Alam, Sk Noor; Silva De Albuquerque, Danilo; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alexandre, Didier; Alfaro Molina, Jose Ruben; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Millan Almaraz, Jesus Roberto; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altinpinar, Sedat; Altsybeev, Igor; Alves Garcia Prado, Caio; Andrei, Cristian; Andronic, Anton; Anguelov, Venelin; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Arnaldi, Roberta; Arnold, Oliver Werner; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Audurier, Benjamin; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Balasubramanian, Supraja; Baldisseri, Alberto; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbano, Anastasia Maria; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartalini, Paolo; Barth, Klaus; Bartke, Jerzy Gustaw; Bartsch, Esther; Basile, Maurizio; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Bathen, Bastian; Batigne, Guillaume; Batista Camejo, Arianna; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bello Martinez, Hector; Bellwied, Rene; Belmont Iii, Ronald John; Belmont Moreno, Ernesto; Belyaev, Vladimir; Benacek, Pavel; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Berceanu, Ionela; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhati, Ashok Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Biro, Gabor; Biswas, Rathijit; Biswas, Saikat; Bjelogrlic, Sandro; Blair, Justin Thomas; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boggild, Hans; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Book, Julian Heinz; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Bossu, Francesco; Botta, Elena; Bourjau, Christian; Braun-Munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Breitner, Timo Gunther; Broker, Theo Alexander; Browning, Tyler Allen; Broz, Michal; Brucken, Erik Jens; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Bashir Butt, Jamila; Buxton, Jesse Thomas; Cabala, Jan; Caffarri, Davide; Cai, Xu; Caines, Helen Louise; Calero Diaz, Liliet; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Camerini, Paolo; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Carnesecchi, Francesca; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Castro, Andrew John; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Cepila, Jan; Cerello, Piergiorgio; Cerkala, Jakub; Chang, Beomsu; Chapeland, Sylvain; Chartier, Marielle; Charvet, Jean-Luc Fernand; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis; Chattopadhyay, Sukalyan; Chauvin, Alex; Chelnokov, Volodymyr; Cherney, Michael Gerard; Cheshkov, Cvetan Valeriev; Cheynis, Brigitte; Chibante Barroso, Vasco Miguel; Dobrigkeit Chinellato, David; Cho, Soyeon; Chochula, Peter; Choi, Kyungeon; Chojnacki, Marek; Choudhury, Subikash; Christakoglou, Panagiotis; Christensen, Christian Holm; Christiansen, Peter; Chujo, Tatsuya; Chung, Suh-Urk; Cicalo, Corrado; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, Federico; Cleymans, Jean Willy Andre; Colamaria, Fabio Filippo; Colella, Domenico; Collu, Alberto; Colocci, Manuel; Conesa Balbastre, Gustavo; Conesa Del Valle, Zaida; Connors, Megan Elizabeth; Contreras Nuno, Jesus Guillermo; Cormier, Thomas Michael; Corrales Morales, Yasser; Cortes Maldonado, Ismael; Cortese, Pietro; Cosentino, Mauro Rogerio; Costa, Filippo; Crochet, Philippe; Cruz Albino, Rigoberto; Cuautle Flores, Eleazar; Cunqueiro Mendez, Leticia; Dahms, Torsten; Dainese, Andrea; Danisch, Meike Charlotte; Danu, Andrea; Das, Debasish; Das, Indranil; Das, Supriya; Dash, Ajay Kumar; Dash, Sadhana; De, Sudipan; De Caro, Annalisa; De Cataldo, Giacinto; De Conti, Camila; De Cuveland, Jan; De Falco, Alessandro; De Gruttola, Daniele; De Marco, Nora; De Pasquale, Salvatore; Deisting, Alexander; Deloff, Andrzej; Denes, Ervin Sandor; Deplano, Caterina; Dhankher, Preeti; Di Bari, Domenico; Di Mauro, Antonio; Di Nezza, Pasquale; Diaz Corchero, Miguel Angel; Dietel, Thomas; Dillenseger, Pascal; Divia, Roberto; Djuvsland, Oeystein; Dobrin, Alexandru Florin; Domenicis Gimenez, Diogenes; Donigus, Benjamin; Dordic, Olja; Drozhzhova, Tatiana; Dubey, Anand Kumar; Dubla, Andrea; Ducroux, Laurent; Dupieux, Pascal; Ehlers Iii, Raymond James; Elia, Domenico; Endress, Eric; Engel, Heiko; Epple, Eliane; Erazmus, Barbara Ewa; Erdemir, Irem; Erhardt, Filip; Espagnon, Bruno; Estienne, Magali Danielle; Esumi, Shinichi; Eum, Jongsik; Evans, David; Evdokimov, Sergey; Eyyubova, Gyulnara; Fabbietti, Laura; Fabris, Daniela; Faivre, Julien; Fantoni, Alessandra; Fasel, Markus; Feldkamp, Linus; Feliciello, Alessandro; Feofilov, Grigorii; Ferencei, Jozef; Fernandez Tellez, Arturo; Gonzalez Ferreiro, Elena; Ferretti, Alessandro; Festanti, Andrea; Feuillard, Victor Jose Gaston; Figiel, Jan; Araujo Silva Figueredo, Marcel; Filchagin, Sergey; Finogeev, Dmitry; Fionda, Fiorella; Fiore, Enrichetta Maria; Fleck, Martin Gabriel; Floris, Michele; Foertsch, Siegfried Valentin; Foka, Panagiota; Fokin, Sergey; Fragiacomo, Enrico; Francescon, Andrea; Frankenfeld, Ulrich Michael; Fronze, Gabriele Gaetano; Fuchs, Ulrich; Furget, Christophe; Furs, Artur; Fusco Girard, Mario; Gaardhoeje, Jens Joergen; Gagliardi, Martino; Gago Medina, Alberto Martin; Gallio, Mauro; Gangadharan, Dhevan Raja; Ganoti, Paraskevi; Gao, Chaosong; Garabatos Cuadrado, Jose; Garcia-Solis, Edmundo Javier; Gargiulo, Corrado; Gasik, Piotr Jan; Gauger, Erin Frances; Germain, Marie; Gheata, Andrei George; Gheata, Mihaela; Ghosh, Premomoy; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar; Gianotti, Paola; Giubellino, Paolo; Giubilato, Piero; Gladysz-Dziadus, Ewa; Glassel, Peter; Gomez Coral, Diego Mauricio; Gomez Ramirez, Andres; Sanchez Gonzalez, Andres; Gonzalez, Victor; Gonzalez Zamora, Pedro; Gorbunov, Sergey; Gorlich, Lidia Maria; Gotovac, Sven; Grabski, Varlen; Grachov, Oleg Anatolievich; Graczykowski, Lukasz Kamil; Graham, Katie Leanne; Grelli, Alessandro; Grigoras, Alina Gabriela; Grigoras, Costin; Grigoryev, Vladislav; Grigoryan, Ara; Grigoryan, Smbat; Grynyov, Borys; Grion, Nevio; Gronefeld, Julius Maximilian; Grosse-Oetringhaus, Jan Fiete; Grosso, Raffaele; Guber, Fedor; Guernane, Rachid; Guerzoni, Barbara; Gulbrandsen, Kristjan Herlache; Gunji, Taku; Gupta, Anik; Gupta, Ramni; Haake, Rudiger; Haaland, Oystein Senneset; Hadjidakis, Cynthia Marie; Haiduc, Maria; Hamagaki, Hideki; Hamar, Gergoe; Hamon, Julien Charles; Harris, John William; Harton, Austin Vincent; Hatzifotiadou, Despina; Hayashi, Shinichi; Heckel, Stefan Thomas; Hellbar, Ernst; Helstrup, Haavard; Herghelegiu, Andrei Ionut; Herrera Corral, Gerardo Antonio; Hess, Benjamin Andreas; Hetland, Kristin Fanebust; Hillemanns, Hartmut; Hippolyte, Boris; Horak, David; Hosokawa, Ritsuya; Hristov, Peter Zahariev; Humanic, Thomas; Hussain, Nur; Hussain, Tahir; Hutter, Dirk; Hwang, Dae Sung; Ilkaev, Radiy; Inaba, Motoi; Incani, Elisa; Ippolitov, Mikhail; Irfan, Muhammad; Ivanov, Marian; Ivanov, Vladimir; Izucheev, Vladimir; Jacazio, Nicolo; Jacobs, Peter Martin; Jadhav, Manoj Bhanudas; Jadlovska, Slavka; Jadlovsky, Jan; Jahnke, Cristiane; Jakubowska, Monika Joanna; Jang, Haeng Jin; Janik, Malgorzata Anna; Pahula Hewage, Sandun; Jena, Chitrasen; Jena, Satyajit; Jimenez Bustamante, Raul Tonatiuh; Jones, Peter Graham; Jusko, Anton; Kalinak, Peter; Kalweit, Alexander Philipp; Kamin, Jason Adrian; Kang, Ju Hwan; Kaplin, Vladimir; Kar, Somnath; Karasu Uysal, Ayben; Karavichev, Oleg; Karavicheva, Tatiana; Karayan, Lilit; Karpechev, Evgeny; Kebschull, Udo Wolfgang; Keidel, Ralf; Keijdener, Darius Laurens; Keil, Markus; Khan, Mohammed Mohisin; Khan, Palash; Khan, Shuaib Ahmad; Khanzadeev, Alexei; Kharlov, Yury; Kileng, Bjarte; Kim, Do Won; Kim, Dong Jo; Kim, Daehyeok; Kim, Hyeonjoong; Kim, Jinsook; Kim, Minwoo; Kim, Se Yong; Kim, Taesoo; Kirsch, Stefan; Kisel, Ivan; Kiselev, Sergey; Kisiel, Adam Ryszard; Kiss, Gabor; Klay, Jennifer Lynn; Klein, Carsten; Klein, Jochen; Klein-Boesing, Christian; Klewin, Sebastian; Kluge, Alexander; Knichel, Michael Linus; Knospe, Anders Garritt; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Kofarago, Monika; Kollegger, Thorsten; Kolozhvari, Anatoly; Kondratev, Valerii; Kondratyeva, Natalia; Kondratyuk, Evgeny; Konevskikh, Artem; Kopcik, Michal; Kostarakis, Panagiotis; Kour, Mandeep; Kouzinopoulos, Charalampos; Kovalenko, Oleksandr; Kovalenko, Vladimir; Kowalski, Marek; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, Greeshma; Kralik, Ivan; Kravcakova, Adela; Krivda, Marian; Krizek, Filip; Kryshen, Evgeny; Krzewicki, Mikolaj; Kubera, Andrew Michael; Kucera, Vit; Kuhn, Christian Claude; Kuijer, Paulus Gerardus; Kumar, Ajay; Kumar, Jitendra; Kumar, Lokesh; Kumar, Shyam; Kurashvili, Podist; Kurepin, Alexander; Kurepin, Alexey; Kuryakin, Alexey; Kweon, Min Jung; Kwon, Youngil; La Pointe, Sarah Louise; La Rocca, Paola; Ladron De Guevara, Pedro; Lagana Fernandes, Caio; Lakomov, Igor; Langoy, Rune; Lara Martinez, Camilo Ernesto; Lardeux, Antoine Xavier; Lattuca, Alessandra; Laudi, Elisa; Lea, Ramona; Leardini, Lucia; Lee, Graham Richard; Lee, Seongjoo; Lehas, Fatiha; Lemmon, Roy Crawford; Lenti, Vito; Leogrande, Emilia; Leon Monzon, Ildefonso; Leon Vargas, Hermes; Leoncino, Marco; Levai, Peter; Li, Shuang; Li, Xiaomei; Lien, Jorgen Andre; Lietava, Roman; Lindal, Svein; Lindenstruth, Volker; Lippmann, Christian; Lisa, Michael Annan; Ljunggren, Hans Martin; Lodato, Davide Francesco; Lonne, Per-Ivar; Loginov, Vitaly; Loizides, Constantinos; Lopez, Xavier Bernard; Lopez Torres, Ernesto; Lowe, Andrew John; Luettig, Philipp Johannes; Lunardon, Marcello; Luparello, Grazia; Lutz, Tyler Harrison; Maevskaya, Alla; Mager, Magnus; Mahajan, Sanjay; Mahmood, Sohail Musa; Maire, Antonin; Majka, Richard Daniel; Malaev, Mikhail; Maldonado Cervantes, Ivonne Alicia; Malinina, Liudmila; Mal'Kevich, Dmitry; Malzacher, Peter; Mamonov, Alexander; Manko, Vladislav; Manso, Franck; Manzari, Vito; Marchisone, Massimiliano; Mares, Jiri; Margagliotti, Giacomo Vito; Margotti, Anselmo; Margutti, Jacopo; Marin, Ana Maria; Markert, Christina; Marquard, Marco; Martin, Nicole Alice; Martin Blanco, Javier; Martinengo, Paolo; Martinez Hernandez, Mario Ivan; Martinez-Garcia, Gines; Martinez Pedreira, Miguel; Mas, Alexis Jean-Michel; Masciocchi, Silvia; Masera, Massimo; Masoni, Alberto; Mastroserio, Annalisa; Matyja, Adam Tomasz; Mayer, Christoph; Mazer, Joel Anthony; Mazzoni, Alessandra Maria; Mcdonald, Daniel; Meddi, Franco; Melikyan, Yuri; Menchaca-Rocha, Arturo Alejandro; Meninno, Elisa; Mercado-Perez, Jorge; Meres, Michal; Miake, Yasuo; Mieskolainen, Matti Mikael; Mikhaylov, Konstantin; Milano, Leonardo; Milosevic, Jovan; Mischke, Andre; Mishra, Aditya Nath; Miskowiec, Dariusz Czeslaw; Mitra, Jubin; Mitu, Ciprian Mihai; Mohammadi, Naghmeh; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Molnar, Levente; Montano Zetina, Luis Manuel; Montes Prado, Esther; Moreira De Godoy, Denise Aparecida; Perez Moreno, Luis Alberto; Moretto, Sandra; Morreale, Astrid; Morsch, Andreas; Muccifora, Valeria; Mudnic, Eugen; Muhlheim, Daniel Michael; Muhuri, Sanjib; Mukherjee, Maitreyee; Mulligan, James Declan; Gameiro Munhoz, Marcelo; Munzer, Robert Helmut; Murakami, Hikari; Murray, Sean; Musa, Luciano; Musinsky, Jan; Naik, Bharati; Nair, Rahul; Nandi, Basanta Kumar; Nania, Rosario; Nappi, Eugenio; Naru, Muhammad Umair; Ferreira Natal Da Luz, Pedro Hugo; Nattrass, Christine; Rosado Navarro, Sebastian; Nayak, Kishora; Nayak, Ranjit; Nayak, Tapan Kumar; Nazarenko, Sergey; Nedosekin, Alexander; Nellen, Lukas; Ng, Fabian; Nicassio, Maria; Niculescu, Mihai; Niedziela, Jeremi; Nielsen, Borge Svane; Nikolaev, Sergey; Nikulin, Sergey; Nikulin, Vladimir; Noferini, Francesco; Nomokonov, Petr; Nooren, Gerardus; Cabanillas Noris, Juan Carlos; Norman, Jaime; Nyanin, Alexander; Nystrand, Joakim Ingemar; Oeschler, Helmut Oskar; Oh, Saehanseul; Oh, Sun Kun; Ohlson, Alice Elisabeth; Okatan, Ali; Okubo, Tsubasa; Olah, Laszlo; Oleniacz, Janusz; Oliveira Da Silva, Antonio Carlos; Oliver, Michael Henry; Onderwaater, Jacobus; Oppedisano, Chiara; Orava, Risto; Oravec, Matej; Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio; Oskarsson, Anders Nils Erik; Otwinowski, Jacek Tomasz; Oyama, Ken; Ozdemir, Mahmut; Pachmayer, Yvonne Chiara; Pagano, Davide; Pagano, Paola; Paic, Guy; Pal, Susanta Kumar; Pan, Jinjin; Pandey, Ashutosh Kumar; Papikyan, Vardanush; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Pareek, Pooja; Park, Woojin; Parmar, Sonia; Passfeld, Annika; Paticchio, Vincenzo; Patra, Rajendra Nath; Paul, Biswarup; Pei, Hua; Peitzmann, Thomas; Pereira Da Costa, Hugo Denis Antonio; Peresunko, Dmitry Yurevich; Perez Lara, Carlos Eugenio; Perez Lezama, Edgar; Peskov, Vladimir; Pestov, Yury; Petracek, Vojtech; Petrov, Viacheslav; Petrovici, Mihai; Petta, Catia; Piano, Stefano; Pikna, Miroslav; Pillot, Philippe; Ozelin De Lima Pimentel, Lais; Pinazza, Ombretta; Pinsky, Lawrence; Piyarathna, Danthasinghe; Ploskon, Mateusz Andrzej; Planinic, Mirko; Pluta, Jan Marian; Pochybova, Sona; Podesta Lerma, Pedro Luis Manuel; Poghosyan, Martin; Polishchuk, Boris; Poljak, Nikola; Poonsawat, Wanchaloem; Pop, Amalia; Porteboeuf, Sarah Julie; Porter, R Jefferson; Pospisil, Jan; Prasad, Sidharth Kumar; Preghenella, Roberto; Prino, Francesco; Pruneau, Claude Andre; Pshenichnov, Igor; Puccio, Maximiliano; Puddu, Giovanna; Pujahari, Prabhat Ranjan; Punin, Valery; Putschke, Jorn Henning; Qvigstad, Henrik; Rachevski, Alexandre; Raha, Sibaji; Rajput, Sonia; Rak, Jan; Rakotozafindrabe, Andry Malala; Ramello, Luciano; Rami, Fouad; Raniwala, Rashmi; Raniwala, Sudhir; Rasanen, Sami Sakari; Rascanu, Bogdan Theodor; Rathee, Deepika; Read, Kenneth Francis; Redlich, Krzysztof; Reed, Rosi Jan; Rehman, Attiq Ur; Reichelt, Patrick Simon; Reidt, Felix; Ren, Xiaowen; Renfordt, Rainer Arno Ernst; Reolon, Anna Rita; Reshetin, Andrey; Reygers, Klaus Johannes; Riabov, Viktor; Ricci, Renato Angelo; Richert, Tuva Ora Herenui; Richter, Matthias Rudolph; Riedler, Petra; Riegler, Werner; Riggi, Francesco; Ristea, Catalin-Lucian; Rocco, Elena; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, Mario; Rodriguez Manso, Alis; Roeed, Ketil; Rogochaya, Elena; Rohr, David Michael; Roehrich, Dieter; Ronchetti, Federico; Ronflette, Lucile; Rosnet, Philippe; Rossi, Andrea; Roukoutakis, Filimon; Roy, Ankhi; Roy, Christelle Sophie; Roy, Pradip Kumar; Rubio Montero, Antonio Juan; Rui, Rinaldo; Russo, Riccardo; Ryabinkin, Evgeny; Ryabov, Yury; Rybicki, Andrzej; Saarinen, Sampo; Sadhu, Samrangy; Sadovskiy, Sergey; Safarik, Karel; Sahlmuller, Baldo; Sahoo, Pragati; Sahoo, Raghunath; Sahoo, Sarita; Sahu, Pradip Kumar; Saini, Jogender; Sakai, Shingo; Saleh, Mohammad Ahmad; Salzwedel, Jai Samuel Nielsen; Sambyal, Sanjeev Singh; Samsonov, Vladimir; Sandor, Ladislav; Sandoval, Andres; Sano, Masato; Sarkar, Debojit; Sarkar, Nachiketa; Sarma, Pranjal; Scapparone, Eugenio; Scarlassara, Fernando; Schiaua, Claudiu Cornel; Schicker, Rainer Martin; Schmidt, Christian Joachim; Schmidt, Hans Rudolf; Schuchmann, Simone; Schukraft, Jurgen; Schulc, Martin; Schutz, Yves Roland; Schwarz, Kilian Eberhard; Schweda, Kai Oliver; Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Scott, Rebecca Michelle; Sefcik, Michal; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Sekihata, Daiki; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Senyukov, Serhiy; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabanov, Arseniy; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shadura, Oksana; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shahzad, Muhammed Ikram; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Mona; Sharma, Monika; Sharma, Natasha; Sheikh, Ashik Ikbal; Shigaki, Kenta; Shou, Qiye; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Sielewicz, Krzysztof Marek; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Silvestre, Catherine Micaela; Simatovic, Goran; Simonetti, Giuseppe; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singha, Subhash; Singhal, Vikas; Sinha, Bikash; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Snellman, Tomas Wilhelm; Song, Jihye; Song, Myunggeun; Song, Zixuan; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Derradi De Souza, Rafael; Sozzi, Federica; Spacek, Michal; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, Martha; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stankus, Paul; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Steyn, Gideon Francois; Stiller, Johannes Hendrik; Stocco, Diego; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Suljic, Miljenko; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Szabo, Alexander; Szanto De Toledo, Alejandro; Szarka, Imrich; Szczepankiewicz, Adam; Szymanski, Maciej Pawel; Tabassam, Uzma; Takahashi, Jun; Tambave, Ganesh Jagannath; Tanaka, Naoto; Tarhini, Mohamad; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-Gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Teyssier, Boris; Thaeder, Jochen Mathias; Thakur, Dhananjaya; Thomas, Deepa; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Trogolo, Stefano; Trombetta, Giuseppe; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Utrobicic, Antonija; Vala, Martin; Valencia Palomo, Lizardo; Vallero, Sara; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Vanat, Tomas; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Varga, Dezso; Diozcora Vargas Trevino, Aurora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vauthier, Astrid; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veen, Annelies Marianne; Veldhoen, Misha; Velure, Arild; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vernet, Renaud; Verweij, Marta; Vickovic, Linda; Viesti, Giuseppe; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Villatoro Tello, Abraham; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Vinogradov, Yury; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Viyogi, Yogendra; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Vulpescu, Bogdan; Wagner, Boris; Wagner, Jan; Wang, Hongkai; Wang, Mengliang; Watanabe, Daisuke; Watanabe, Yosuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Weiser, Dennis Franz; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Whitehead, Andile Mothegi; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Williams, Crispin; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Winn, Michael Andreas; Yang, Hongyan; Yang, Ping; Yano, Satoshi; Yasin, Zafar; Yin, Zhongbao; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Yoo, In-Kwon; Yoon, Jin Hee; Yurchenko, Volodymyr; Yushmanov, Igor; Zaborowska, Anna; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Correia Zanoli, Henrique Jose; Zaporozhets, Sergey; Zardoshti, Nima; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zgura, Sorin Ion; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Chunhui, Zhang; Zhang, Zuman; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Alice; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zyzak, Maksym

2016-05-25

We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE is studied. PID is performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight. PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities are extracted and compared with Monte Carlo simulations using high purity samples of identified particles in the decay channels ${\\rm K}_{\\rm S}^{\\rm 0}\\rightarrow \\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\phi\\rightarrow {\\rm K}^-{\\rm K}^+$ and $\\Lambda\\rightarrow{\\rm p}\\pi^-$ in p–Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}= 5.02$TeV. In order to thoroughly assess the validity of the Bayesian approach, this methodology was used to obtain corrected $p_{\\rm T}$ spectra of pions, kaons, protons, and D$^0$ mesons in pp coll...
Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2010-01-01

This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....
Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Michael D

2016-03-01

Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.
A Bayesian nonparametric approach to causal inference on quantiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Dandan; Daniels, Michael J; Winterstein, Almut G

2018-02-25

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach (BNP) for causal inference on quantiles in the presence of many confounders. In particular, we define relevant causal quantities and specify BNP models to avoid bias from restrictive parametric assumptions. We first use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the propensity score and then construct the distribution of potential outcomes given the propensity score using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of normals model. We thoroughly evaluate the operating characteristics of our approach and compare it to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. We use our approach to answer an important clinical question involving acute kidney injury using electronic health records. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.
Approximate Bayesian computation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikael Sunnåker

Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.
Deep Galex Observations of the Coma Cluster: Source Catalog and Galaxy Counts

Science.gov (United States)

Hammer, D.; Hornschemeier, A. E.; Mobasher, B.; Miller, N.; Smith, R.; Arnouts, S.; Milliard, B.; Jenkins, L.

2010-01-01

We present a source catalog from deep 26 ks GALEX observations of the Coma cluster in the far-UV (FUV; 1530 Angstroms) and near-UV (NUV; 2310 Angstroms) wavebands. The observed field is centered 0.9 deg. (1.6 Mpc) south-west of the Coma core, and has full optical photometric coverage by SDSS and spectroscopic coverage to r-21. The catalog consists of 9700 galaxies with GALEX and SDSS photometry, including 242 spectroscopically-confirmed Coma member galaxies that range from giant spirals and elliptical galaxies to dwarf irregular and early-type galaxies. The full multi-wavelength catalog (cluster plus background galaxies) is 80% complete to NUV=23 and FUV=23.5, and has a limiting depth at NUV=24.5 and FUV=25.0 which corresponds to a star formation rate of 10(exp -3) solar mass yr(sup -1) at the distance of Coma. The GALEX images presented here are very deep and include detections of many resolved cluster members superposed on a dense field of unresolved background galaxies. This required a two-fold approach to generating a source catalog: we used a Bayesian deblending algorithm to measure faint and compact sources (using SDSS coordinates as a position prior), and used the GALEX pipeline catalog for bright and/or extended objects. We performed simulations to assess the importance of systematic effects (e.g. object blends, source confusion, Eddington Bias) that influence source detection and photometry when using both methods. The Bayesian deblending method roughly doubles the number of source detections and provides reliable photometry to a few magnitudes deeper than the GALEX pipeline catalog. This method is also free from source confusion over the UV magnitude range studied here: conversely, we estimate that the GALEX pipeline catalogs are confusion limited at NUV approximately 23 and FUV approximately 24. We have measured the total UV galaxy counts using our catalog and report a 50% excess of counts across FUV=22-23.5 and NUV=21.5-23 relative to previous GALEX
Probability and Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

1987-01-01

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Balanced sensitivity functions for tuning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bolt, J.H.; van der Gaag, L.C.

Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers are Bayesian networks of restricted topological structure, which are tailored to classifying data instances into multiple dimensions. Like more traditional classifiers, multi-dimensional classifiers are typically learned from data and may include
Evolutionary Analysis of Dengue Serotype 2 Viruses Using Phylogenetic and Bayesian Methods from New Delhi, India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nazia Afreen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease in the tropical and sub-tropical countries of the world. Delhi, the metropolitan capital state of India, has reported many dengue outbreaks, with the last outbreak occurring in 2013. We have recently reported predominance of dengue virus serotype 2 during 2011-2014 in Delhi. In the present study, we report molecular characterization and evolutionary analysis of dengue serotype 2 viruses which were detected in 2011-2014 in Delhi. Envelope genes of 42 DENV-2 strains were sequenced in the study. All DENV-2 strains grouped within the Cosmopolitan genotype and further clustered into three lineages; Lineage I, II and III. Lineage III replaced lineage I during dengue fever outbreak of 2013. Further, a novel mutation Thr404Ile was detected in the stem region of the envelope protein of a single DENV-2 strain in 2014. Nucleotide substitution rate and time to the most recent common ancestor were determined by molecular clock analysis using Bayesian methods. A change in effective population size of Indian DENV-2 viruses was investigated through Bayesian skyline plot. The study will be a vital road map for investigation of epidemiology and evolutionary pattern of dengue viruses in India.
Hierarchical Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Climatic and Socio-Economic Determinants of Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever.

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Ram K Raghavan

Full Text Available This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF prevalence in four contiguous states of Midwestern United States, and to determine the impact of environmental and socio-economic factors associated with this disease. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to quantify space and time only trends and spatio-temporal interaction effect in the case reports submitted to the state health departments in the region. Various socio-economic, environmental and climatic covariates screened a priori in a bivariate procedure were added to a main-effects Bayesian model in progressive steps to evaluate important drivers of RMSF space-time patterns in the region. Our results show a steady increase in RMSF incidence over the study period to newer geographic areas, and the posterior probabilities of county-specific trends indicate clustering of high risk counties in the central and southern parts of the study region. At the spatial scale of a county, the prevalence levels of RMSF is influenced by poverty status, average relative humidity, and average land surface temperature (>35°C in the region, and the relevance of these factors in the context of climate-change impacts on tick-borne diseases are discussed.
Uses and misuses of Bayes' rule and Bayesian classifiers in cybersecurity

Science.gov (United States)

Bard, Gregory V.

2017-12-01

This paper will discuss the applications of Bayes' Rule and Bayesian Classifiers in Cybersecurity. While the most elementary form of Bayes' rule occurs in undergraduate coursework, there are more complicated forms as well. As an extended example, Bayesian spam filtering is explored, and is in many ways the most triumphant accomplishment of Bayesian reasoning in computer science, as nearly everyone with an email address has a spam folder. Bayesian Classifiers have also been responsible significant cybersecurity research results; yet, because they are not part of the standard curriculum, few in the mathematics or information-technology communities have seen the exact definitions, requirements, and proofs that comprise the subject. Moreover, numerous errors have been made by researchers (described in this paper), due to some mathematical misunderstandings dealing with conditional independence, or other badly chosen assumptions. Finally, to provide instructors and researchers with real-world examples, 25 published cybersecurity papers that use Bayesian reasoning are given, with 2-4 sentence summaries of the focus and contributions of each paper.
Self-optimized construction of transition rate matrices from accelerated atomistic simulations with Bayesian uncertainty quantification

Science.gov (United States)

Swinburne, Thomas D.; Perez, Danny

2018-05-01

A massively parallel method to build large transition rate matrices from temperature-accelerated molecular dynamics trajectories is presented. Bayesian Markov model analysis is used to estimate the expected residence time in the known state space, providing crucial uncertainty quantification for higher-scale simulation schemes such as kinetic Monte Carlo or cluster dynamics. The estimators are additionally used to optimize where exploration is performed and the degree of temperature acceleration on the fly, giving an autonomous, optimal procedure to explore the state space of complex systems. The method is tested against exactly solvable models and used to explore the dynamics of C15 interstitial defects in iron. Our uncertainty quantification scheme allows for accurate modeling of the evolution of these defects over timescales of several seconds.
Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert
Discriminative Bayesian Dictionary Learning for Classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Akhtar, Naveed; Shafait, Faisal; Mian, Ajmal

2016-12-01

We propose a Bayesian approach to learn discriminative dictionaries for sparse representation of data. The proposed approach infers probability distributions over the atoms of a discriminative dictionary using a finite approximation of Beta Process. It also computes sets of Bernoulli distributions that associate class labels to the learned dictionary atoms. This association signifies the selection probabilities of the dictionary atoms in the expansion of class-specific data. Furthermore, the non-parametric character of the proposed approach allows it to infer the correct size of the dictionary. We exploit the aforementioned Bernoulli distributions in separately learning a linear classifier. The classifier uses the same hierarchical Bayesian model as the dictionary, which we present along the analytical inference solution for Gibbs sampling. For classification, a test instance is first sparsely encoded over the learned dictionary and the codes are fed to the classifier. We performed experiments for face and action recognition; and object and scene-category classification using five public datasets and compared the results with state-of-the-art discriminative sparse representation approaches. Experiments show that the proposed Bayesian approach consistently outperforms the existing approaches.
Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Grau-Moya

Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.
Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Peng, E-mail: peng@ices.utexas.edu [The Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 East 24th Street, Stop C0200, Austin, TX 78712-1229 (United States); Schwab, Christoph, E-mail: christoph.schwab@sam.math.ethz.ch [Seminar für Angewandte Mathematik, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Römistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland)

2016-07-01

We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by the so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data
Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, A. Terry; Beling, Peter A.

2001-01-01

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores
Bayesian uncertainty analyses of probabilistic risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.

1989-01-01

Applications of Bayesian principles to the uncertainty analyses are discussed in the paper. A short review of the most important uncertainties and their causes is provided. An application of the principle of maximum entropy to the determination of Bayesian prior distributions is described. An approach based on so called probabilistic structures is presented in order to develop a method of quantitative evaluation of modelling uncertainties. The method is applied to a small example case. Ideas for application areas for the proposed method are discussed
Bayesian estimation and tracking a practical guide

CERN Document Server

Haug, Anton J

2012-01-01

A practical approach to estimating and tracking dynamic systems in real-worl applications Much of the literature on performing estimation for non-Gaussian systems is short on practical methodology, while Gaussian methods often lack a cohesive derivation. Bayesian Estimation and Tracking addresses the gap in the field on both accounts, providing readers with a comprehensive overview of methods for estimating both linear and nonlinear dynamic systems driven by Gaussian and non-Gaussian noices. Featuring a unified approach to Bayesian estimation and tracking, the book emphasizes the derivation

A Probability-based Evolutionary Algorithm with Mutations to Learn Bayesian Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sho Fukuda

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Bayesian networks are regarded as one of the essential tools to analyze causal relationship between events from data. To learn the structure of highly-reliable Bayesian networks from data as quickly as possible is one of the important problems that several studies have been tried to achieve. In recent years, probability-based evolutionary algorithms have been proposed as a new efficient approach to learn Bayesian networks. In this paper, we target on one of the probability-based evolutionary algorithms called PBIL (Probability-Based Incremental Learning, and propose a new mutation operator. Through performance evaluation, we found that the proposed mutation operator has a good performance in learning Bayesian networks
Justifying Objective Bayesianism on Predicate Languages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jürgen Landes

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Objective Bayesianism says that the strengths of one’s beliefs ought to be probabilities, calibrated to physical probabilities insofar as one has evidence of them, and otherwise sufficiently equivocal. These norms of belief are often explicated using the maximum entropy principle. In this paper we investigate the extent to which one can provide a unified justification of the objective Bayesian norms in the case in which the background language is a first-order predicate language, with a view to applying the resulting formalism to inductive logic. We show that the maximum entropy principle can be motivated largely in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss.
Structure-based bayesian sparse reconstruction

KAUST Repository

Quadeer, Ahmed Abdul; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

2012-01-01

Sparse signal reconstruction algorithms have attracted research attention due to their wide applications in various fields. In this paper, we present a simple Bayesian approach that utilizes the sparsity constraint and a priori statistical
Bayesian programming

CERN Document Server

Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel

2013-01-01

Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean
A new specific reference gene based on growth hormone gene (GH1) used for detection and relative quantification of Aquadvantage® GM salmon (Salmo salar L.) in food products.

Science.gov (United States)

Hafsa, Ahmed Ben; Nabi, Nesrine; Zellama, Mohamed Salem; Said, Khaled; Chaouachi, Maher

2016-01-01

Genetic transformation of fish is mainly oriented towards the improvement of growth for the benefit of the aquaculture. Actually, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is the species most transformed to achieve growth rates quite large compared to the wild. To anticipate the presence of contaminations with GM salmon in fish markets and the lack of labeling regulations with a mandatory threshold, the proper methods are needed to test the authenticity of the ingredients. A quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (QRT-PCR) method was used in this study. Ct values were obtained and validated using 15 processed food containing salmon. The relative and absolute limits of detection were 0.01% and 0.01 ng/μl of genomic DNA, respectively. Results demonstrate that the developed QRT-PCR method is suitable specifically for identification of S. salar in food ingredients based on the salmon growth hormone gene 1 (GH1). The processes used to develop the specific salmon reference gene case study are intended to serve as a model for performing quantification of Aquadvantage® GM salmon on future genetically modified (GM) fish to be commercialized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Arteriosclerosis in the ventral aorta and epicarditis in the bulbus arteriosus of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L).

Science.gov (United States)

Dalum, A S; Kristthorsdottir, K H; Griffiths, D J; Bjørklund, K; Poppe, T T

2017-06-01

Spontaneous mortality of seemingly healthy, farmed Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L) is an increasing problem in Norwegian aquaculture. In this study, we present a morphological study of the previously undescribed syndrome of arteriosclerosis of the ventral aorta and epicarditis of the adjacent bulbus arteriosus found in farmed Atlantic salmon, with wild-captured fish as a control group. Both the ventral aorta and epicardium are vital for correct arterial compliance and vascular resistance in the respiratory capillaries of the gills. We discuss the possible implications of ventral aorta arteriosclerosis and epicarditis for blood vascular health and in particular for the increasing frequency of spontaneous gill bleeding in farmed salmon. As both these conditions primarily occur in farmed salmon, we suggest that they should be considered pathological. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Bayesian Approaches to Imputation, Hypothesis Testing, and Parameter Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Ross, Steven J.; Mackey, Beth

2015-01-01

This chapter introduces three applications of Bayesian inference to common and novel issues in second language research. After a review of the critiques of conventional hypothesis testing, our focus centers on ways Bayesian inference can be used for dealing with missing data, for testing theory-driven substantive hypotheses without a default null…
Deep Learning and Bayesian Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prosper Harrison B.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A revolution is underway in which deep neural networks are routinely used to solve diffcult problems such as face recognition and natural language understanding. Particle physicists have taken notice and have started to deploy these methods, achieving results that suggest a potentially significant shift in how data might be analyzed in the not too distant future. We discuss a few recent developments in the application of deep neural networks and then indulge in speculation about how such methods might be used to automate certain aspects of data analysis in particle physics. Next, the connection to Bayesian methods is discussed and the paper ends with thoughts on a significant practical issue, namely, how, from a Bayesian perspective, one might optimize the construction of deep neural networks.
Learning Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring using Markov Chain Monte Carlo search

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baesens, B.; Egmont-Petersen, M.; Castelo, R.; Vanthienen, J.

2001-01-01

In this paper, we will evaluate the power and usefulness of Bayesian network classifiers for credit scoring. Various types of Bayesian network classifiers will be evaluated and contrasted including unrestricted Bayesian network classifiers learnt using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search.
Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Vogel, Kristin

2016-04-01

Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables
Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.
Spectral analysis of the IntCal98 calibration curve: a Bayesian view

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palonen, V.; Tikkanen, P.

2004-01-01

Preliminary results from a Bayesian approach to find periodicities in the IntCal98 calibration curve are given. It has been shown in the literature that the discrete Fourier transform (Schuster periodogram) corresponds to the use of an approximate Bayesian model of one harmonic frequency and Gaussian noise. Advantages of the Bayesian approach include the possibility to use models for variable, attenuated and multiple frequencies, the capability to analyze unevenly spaced data and the possibility to assess the significance and uncertainties of spectral estimates. In this work, a new Bayesian model using random walk noise to take care of the trend in the data is developed. Both Bayesian models are described and the first results of the new model are reported and compared with results from straightforward discrete-Fourier-transform and maximum-entropy-method spectral analyses
Large-Scale Distributed Bayesian Matrix Factorization using Stochastic Gradient MCMC

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ahn, S.; Korattikara, A.; Liu, N.; Rajan, S.; Welling, M.

2015-01-01

Despite having various attractive qualities such as high prediction accuracy and the ability to quantify uncertainty and avoid ovrfitting, Bayesian Matrix Factorization has not been widely adopted because of the prohibitive cost of inference. In this paper, we propose a scalable distributed Bayesian
On Bayesian Inference under Sampling from Scale Mixtures of Normals

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fernández, C.; Steel, M.F.J.

1996-01-01

This paper considers a Bayesian analysis of the linear regression model under independent sampling from general scale mixtures of Normals.Using a common reference prior, we investigate the validity of Bayesian inference and the existence of posterior moments of the regression and precision
Nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian based handwriting beautification

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Cao; Xiao, Jianguo; Xu, Canhui; Jia, Wenhua

2013-03-01

A framework is proposed in this paper to effectively and efficiently beautify handwriting by means of a novel nonlinear and non-Gaussian Bayesian algorithm. In the proposed framework, format and size of handwriting image are firstly normalized, and then typeface in computer system is applied to optimize vision effect of handwriting. The Bayesian statistics is exploited to characterize the handwriting beautification process as a Bayesian dynamic model. The model parameters to translate, rotate and scale typeface in computer system are controlled by state equation, and the matching optimization between handwriting and transformed typeface is employed by measurement equation. Finally, the new typeface, which is transformed from the original one and gains the best nonlinear and non-Gaussian optimization, is the beautification result of handwriting. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework provides a creative handwriting beautification methodology to improve visual acceptance.
When mechanism matters: Bayesian forecasting using models of ecological diffusion

Science.gov (United States)

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.; Powell, James A.

2017-01-01

Ecological diffusion is a theory that can be used to understand and forecast spatio-temporal processes such as dispersal, invasion, and the spread of disease. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling provides a framework to make statistical inference and probabilistic forecasts, using mechanistic ecological models. To illustrate, we show how hierarchical Bayesian models of ecological diffusion can be implemented for large data sets that are distributed densely across space and time. The hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to understand and forecast the growth and geographic spread in the prevalence of chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). We compare statistical inference and forecasts from our hierarchical Bayesian model to phenomenological regression-based methods that are commonly used to analyse spatial occurrence data. The mechanistic statistical model based on ecological diffusion led to important ecological insights, obviated a commonly ignored type of collinearity, and was the most accurate method for forecasting.
Bayesian Nonparametric Measurement of Factor Betas and Clustering with Application to Hedge Fund Returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Urbi Garay

2016-03-01

Full Text Available We define a dynamic and self-adjusting mixture of Gaussian Graphical Models to cluster financial returns, and provide a new method for extraction of nonparametric estimates of dynamic alphas (excess return and betas (to a choice set of explanatory factors in a multivariate setting. This approach, as well as the outputs, has a dynamic, nonstationary and nonparametric form, which circumvents the problem of model risk and parametric assumptions that the Kalman filter and other widely used approaches rely on. The by-product of clusters, used for shrinkage and information borrowing, can be of use to determine relationships around specific events. This approach exhibits a smaller Root Mean Squared Error than traditionally used benchmarks in financial settings, which we illustrate through simulation. As an illustration, we use hedge fund index data, and find that our estimated alphas are, on average, 0.13% per month higher (1.6% per year than alphas estimated through Ordinary Least Squares. The approach exhibits fast adaptation to abrupt changes in the parameters, as seen in our estimated alphas and betas, which exhibit high volatility, especially in periods which can be identified as times of stressful market events, a reflection of the dynamic positioning of hedge fund portfolio managers.
Bayesian network as a modelling tool for risk management in agriculture

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Svend; Madsen, Anders L.; Lund, Mogens

. In this paper we use Bayesian networks as an integrated modelling approach for representing uncertainty and analysing risk management in agriculture. It is shown how historical farm account data may be efficiently used to estimate conditional probabilities, which are the core elements in Bayesian network models....... We further show how the Bayesian network model RiBay is used for stochastic simulation of farm income, and we demonstrate how RiBay can be used to simulate risk management at the farm level. It is concluded that the key strength of a Bayesian network is the transparency of assumptions......, and that it has the ability to link uncertainty from different external sources to budget figures and to quantify risk at the farm level....
The use of conflicts in searching Bayesian networks

OpenAIRE

Poole, David L.

2013-01-01

This paper discusses how conflicts (as used by the consistency-based diagnosis community) can be adapted to be used in a search-based algorithm for computing prior and posterior probabilities in discrete Bayesian Networks. This is an "anytime" algorithm, that at any stage can estimate the probabilities and give an error bound. Whereas the most popular Bayesian net algorithms exploit the structure of the network for efficiency, we exploit probability distributions for efficiency; this algorith...
Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

OpenAIRE

Fushiki, Tadayoshi

2005-01-01

We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

Airline Sustainability Modeling: A New Framework with Application of Bayesian Structural Equation Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available There are many factors which could influence the sustainability of airlines. The main purpose of this study is to introduce a framework for a financial sustainability index and model it based on structural equation modeling (SEM with maximum likelihood and Bayesian predictors. The introduced framework includes economic performance, operational performance, cost performance, and financial performance. Based on both Bayesian SEM (Bayesian-SEM and Classical SEM (Classical-SEM, it was found that economic performance with both operational performance and cost performance are significantly related to the financial performance index. The four mathematical indices employed are root mean square error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, and mean absolute percentage error to compare the efficiency of Bayesian-SEM and Classical-SEM in predicting the airline financial performance. The outputs confirmed that the framework with Bayesian prediction delivered a good fit with the data, although the framework predicted with a Classical-SEM approach did not prepare a well-fitting model. The reasons for this discrepancy between Classical and Bayesian predictions, as well as the potential advantages and caveats with the application of Bayesian approach in airline sustainability studies, are debated.
A Bayesian inversion framework for yield and height-of-burst/depth-of-burial for near-surface explosions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johannesson, Gardar [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bulaevskaya, Vera [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ramirez, Abe [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ford, Sean [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Rodgers, Artie [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2015-09-07

A Bayesian inversion framework is presented to estimate the yield of an explosion and height-of-burst/depth-of-burial (HOB/DOB) using seismic and air pressure data. This is accomplished by first calibrating the parameters in the forward models that relate the observations to the yield and HOB/DOB and then using the calibrated model to estimate yield and HOB/DOB associated with a new set of seismic and air pressure observations. The MCMC algorithms required to perform these steps are outlined, and the results with real data are shown. Finally, an extension is proposed for a case when clustering in the seismic displacement occurs as a function of different types of rock and other factors.
Subjective Bayesian Beliefs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

2015-01-01

A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...... economics, with careful controls for the confounding effects of risk aversion. Our results show that risk aversion significantly alters inferences on deviations from Bayes’ Rule....
Cortical hierarchies perform Bayesian causal inference in multisensory perception.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tim Rohe

2015-02-01

Full Text Available To form a veridical percept of the environment, the brain needs to integrate sensory signals from a common source but segregate those from independent sources. Thus, perception inherently relies on solving the "causal inference problem." Behaviorally, humans solve this problem optimally as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference; yet, the underlying neural mechanisms are unexplored. Combining psychophysics, Bayesian modeling, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI, and multivariate decoding in an audiovisual spatial localization task, we demonstrate that Bayesian Causal Inference is performed by a hierarchy of multisensory processes in the human brain. At the bottom of the hierarchy, in auditory and visual areas, location is represented on the basis that the two signals are generated by independent sources (= segregation. At the next stage, in posterior intraparietal sulcus, location is estimated under the assumption that the two signals are from a common source (= forced fusion. Only at the top of the hierarchy, in anterior intraparietal sulcus, the uncertainty about the causal structure of the world is taken into account and sensory signals are combined as predicted by Bayesian Causal Inference. Characterizing the computational operations of signal interactions reveals the hierarchical nature of multisensory perception in human neocortex. It unravels how the brain accomplishes Bayesian Causal Inference, a statistical computation fundamental for perception and cognition. Our results demonstrate how the brain combines information in the face of uncertainty about the underlying causal structure of the world.
Bayesian Plackett-Luce Mixture Models for Partially Ranked Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Mollica, Cristina; Tardella, Luca

2017-06-01

The elicitation of an ordinal judgment on multiple alternatives is often required in many psychological and behavioral experiments to investigate preference/choice orientation of a specific population. The Plackett-Luce model is one of the most popular and frequently applied parametric distributions to analyze rankings of a finite set of items. The present work introduces a Bayesian finite mixture of Plackett-Luce models to account for unobserved sample heterogeneity of partially ranked data. We describe an efficient way to incorporate the latent group structure in the data augmentation approach and the derivation of existing maximum likelihood procedures as special instances of the proposed Bayesian method. Inference can be conducted with the combination of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm for maximum a posteriori estimation and the Gibbs sampling iterative procedure. We additionally investigate several Bayesian criteria for selecting the optimal mixture configuration and describe diagnostic tools for assessing the fitness of ranking distributions conditionally and unconditionally on the number of ranked items. The utility of the novel Bayesian parametric Plackett-Luce mixture for characterizing sample heterogeneity is illustrated with several applications to simulated and real preference ranked data. We compare our method with the frequentist approach and a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model both assuming the Plackett-Luce model as a mixture component. Our analysis on real datasets reveals the importance of an accurate diagnostic check for an appropriate in-depth understanding of the heterogenous nature of the partial ranking data.
Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Salarzadeh Jenatabadi, Hashem; Moghavvemi, Sedigheh; Wan Mohamed Radzi, Che Wan Jasimah Bt; Babashamsi, Parastoo; Arashi, Mohammad

2017-01-01

Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data) were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.
Testing students' e-learning via Facebook through Bayesian structural equation modeling.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hashem Salarzadeh Jenatabadi

Full Text Available Learning is an intentional activity, with several factors affecting students' intention to use new learning technology. Researchers have investigated technology acceptance in different contexts by developing various theories/models and testing them by a number of means. Although most theories/models developed have been examined through regression or structural equation modeling, Bayesian analysis offers more accurate data analysis results. To address this gap, the unified theory of acceptance and technology use in the context of e-learning via Facebook are re-examined in this study using Bayesian analysis. The data (S1 Data were collected from 170 students enrolled in a business statistics course at University of Malaya, Malaysia, and tested with the maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches. The difference between the two methods' results indicates that performance expectancy and hedonic motivation are the strongest factors influencing the intention to use e-learning via Facebook. The Bayesian estimation model exhibited better data fit than the maximum likelihood estimator model. The results of the Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimator approaches are compared and the reasons for the result discrepancy are deliberated.
Estimating mental states of a depressed person with bayesian networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klein, Michel C.A.; Modena, Gabriele

2013-01-01

In this work in progress paper we present an approach based on Bayesian Networks to model the relationship between mental states and empirical observations in a depressed person. We encode relationships and domain expertise as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network. Mental states are represented as latent
A study of finite mixture model: Bayesian approach on financial time series data

Science.gov (United States)

Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-07-01

Recently, statistician have emphasized on the fitting finite mixture model by using Bayesian method. Finite mixture model is a mixture of distributions in modeling a statistical distribution meanwhile Bayesian method is a statistical method that use to fit the mixture model. Bayesian method is being used widely because it has asymptotic properties which provide remarkable result. In addition, Bayesian method also shows consistency characteristic which means the parameter estimates are close to the predictive distributions. In the present paper, the number of components for mixture model is studied by using Bayesian Information Criterion. Identify the number of component is important because it may lead to an invalid result. Later, the Bayesian method is utilized to fit the k-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Lastly, the results showed that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for all selected countries.
An EST-based approach for identifying genes expressed in the intestine and gills of pre-smolt Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adzhubei Alexei

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Atlantic salmon is an important aquaculture species and a very interesting species biologically, since it spawns in fresh water and develops through several stages before becoming a smolt, the stage at which it migrates to the sea to feed. The dramatic change of habitat requires physiological, morphological and behavioural changes to prepare the salmon for its new environment. These changes are called the parr-smolt transformation or smoltification, and pre-adapt the salmon for survival and growth in the marine environment. The development of hypo-osmotic regulatory ability plays an important part in facilitating the transition from rivers to the sea. The physiological mechanisms behind the developmental changes are largely unknown. An understanding of the transformation process will be vital to the future of the aquaculture industry. A knowledge of which genes are expressed prior to the smoltification process is an important basis for further studies. Results In all, 2974 unique sequences, consisting of 779 contigs and 2195 singlets, were generated for Atlantic salmon from two cDNA libraries constructed from the gills and the intestine, accession numbers [Genbank: CK877169-CK879929, CK884015-CK886537 and CN181112-CN181464]. Nearly 50% of the sequences were assigned putative functions because they showed similarity to known genes, mostly from other species, in one or more of the databases used. The Swiss-Prot database returned significant hits for 1005 sequences. These could be assigned predicted gene products, and 967 were annotated using Gene Ontology (GO terms for molecular function, biological process and/or cellular component, employing an annotation transfer procedure. Conclusion This paper describes the construction of two cDNA libraries from pre-smolt Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar and the subsequent EST sequencing, clustering and assigning of putative function to 1005 genes expressed in the gills and/or intestine.
Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

2013-04-01

In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.
Robust seismicity forecasting based on Bayesian parameter estimation for epidemiological spatio-temporal aftershock clustering models.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebrahimian, Hossein; Jalayer, Fatemeh

2017-08-29

In the immediate aftermath of a strong earthquake and in the presence of an ongoing aftershock sequence, scientific advisories in terms of seismicity forecasts play quite a crucial role in emergency decision-making and risk mitigation. Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are frequently used for forecasting the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity in the short-term. We propose robust forecasting of seismicity based on ETAS model, by exploiting the link between Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation. The methodology considers the uncertainty not only in the model parameters, conditioned on the available catalogue of events occurred before the forecasting interval, but also the uncertainty in the sequence of events that are going to happen during the forecasting interval. We demonstrate the methodology by retrospective early forecasting of seismicity associated with the 2016 Amatrice seismic sequence activities in central Italy. We provide robust spatio-temporal short-term seismicity forecasts with various time intervals in the first few days elapsed after each of the three main events within the sequence, which can predict the seismicity within plus/minus two standard deviations from the mean estimate within the few hours elapsed after the main event.
Bayesian posterior distributions without Markov chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Stephen R; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B

2012-03-01

Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976-1983) assessing the relation between residential exposure to magnetic fields and the development of childhood cancer. Results from rejection sampling (odds ratio (OR) = 1.69, 95% posterior interval (PI): 0.57, 5.00) were similar to MCMC results (OR = 1.69, 95% PI: 0.58, 4.95) and approximations from data-augmentation priors (OR = 1.74, 95% PI: 0.60, 5.06). In example 2, the authors apply rejection sampling to a cohort study of 315 human immunodeficiency virus seroconverters (1984-1998) to assess the relation between viral load after infection and 5-year incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, adjusting for (continuous) age at seroconversion and race. In this more complex example, rejection sampling required a notably longer run time than MCMC sampling but remained feasible and again yielded similar results. The transparency of the proposed approach comes at a price of being less broadly applicable than MCMC.
Bayesian Estimation of Wave Spectra – Proper Formulation of ABIC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Ulrik Dam

2007-01-01

It is possible to estimate on-site wave spectra using measured ship responses applied to Bayesian Modelling based on two prior information: the wave spectrum must be smooth both directional-wise and frequency-wise. This paper introduces two hyperparameters into Bayesian Modelling and, hence, a pr...
A default Bayesian hypothesis test for correlations and partial correlations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzels, R.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

2012-01-01

We propose a default Bayesian hypothesis test for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The test is a direct application of Bayesian techniques for variable selection in regression models. The test is easy to apply and yields practical advantages that the standard frequentist tests
Systematic search of Bayesian statistics in the field of psychotraumatology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Schoot, Rens; Schalken, Naomi; Olff, Miranda

2017-01-01

In many different disciplines there is a recent increase in interest of Bayesian analysis. Bayesian methods implement Bayes' theorem, which states that prior beliefs are updated with data, and this process produces updated beliefs about model parameters. The prior is based on how much information we
Rationalizing method of replacement intervals by using Bayesian statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasai, Masao; Notoya, Junichi; Kusakari, Yoshiyuki

2007-01-01

This study represents the formulations for rationalizing the replacement intervals of equipments and/or parts taking into account the probability density functions (PDF) of the parameters of failure distribution functions (FDF) and compares the optimized intervals by our formulations with those by conventional formulations which uses only representative values of the parameters of FDF instead of using these PDFs. The failure data are generated by Monte Carlo simulations since the real failure data can not be available for us. The PDF of PDF parameters are obtained by Bayesian method and the representative values are obtained by likelihood estimation and Bayesian method. We found that the method using PDF by Bayesian method brings longer replacement intervals than one using the representative of the parameters. (author)
Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

2017-06-01

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.
Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.
Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

Science.gov (United States)

Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2018-05-01

Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis, Second Edition, provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. This new edition contains six new...
Using Alien Coins to Test Whether Simple Inference Is Bayesian

Science.gov (United States)

Cassey, Peter; Hawkins, Guy E.; Donkin, Chris; Brown, Scott D.

2016-01-01

Reasoning and inference are well-studied aspects of basic cognition that have been explained as statistically optimal Bayesian inference. Using a simplified experimental design, we conducted quantitative comparisons between Bayesian inference and human inference at the level of individuals. In 3 experiments, with more than 13,000 participants, we…
Applying Bayesian statistics to the study of psychological trauma: A suggestion for future research.

Science.gov (United States)

Yalch, Matthew M

2016-03-01

Several contemporary researchers have noted the virtues of Bayesian methods of data analysis. Although debates continue about whether conventional or Bayesian statistics is the "better" approach for researchers in general, there are reasons why Bayesian methods may be well suited to the study of psychological trauma in particular. This article describes how Bayesian statistics offers practical solutions to the problems of data non-normality, small sample size, and missing data common in research on psychological trauma. After a discussion of these problems and the effects they have on trauma research, this article explains the basic philosophical and statistical foundations of Bayesian statistics and how it provides solutions to these problems using an applied example. Results of the literature review and the accompanying example indicates the utility of Bayesian statistics in addressing problems common in trauma research. Bayesian statistics provides a set of methodological tools and a broader philosophical framework that is useful for trauma researchers. Methodological resources are also provided so that interested readers can learn more. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).
Motion Learning Based on Bayesian Program Learning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng Meng-Zhen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The concept of virtual human has been highly anticipated since the 1980s. By using computer technology, Human motion simulation could generate authentic visual effect, which could cheat human eyes visually. Bayesian Program Learning train one or few motion data, generate new motion data by decomposing and combining. And the generated motion will be more realistic and natural than the traditional one.In this paper, Motion learning based on Bayesian program learning allows us to quickly generate new motion data, reduce workload, improve work efficiency, reduce the cost of motion capture, and improve the reusability of data.
Bayesian Inference and Online Learning in Poisson Neuronal Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yanping; Rao, Rajesh P N

2016-08-01

Motivated by the growing evidence for Bayesian computation in the brain, we show how a two-layer recurrent network of Poisson neurons can perform both approximate Bayesian inference and learning for any hidden Markov model. The lower-layer sensory neurons receive noisy measurements of hidden world states. The higher-layer neurons infer a posterior distribution over world states via Bayesian inference from inputs generated by sensory neurons. We demonstrate how such a neuronal network with synaptic plasticity can implement a form of Bayesian inference similar to Monte Carlo methods such as particle filtering. Each spike in a higher-layer neuron represents a sample of a particular hidden world state. The spiking activity across the neural population approximates the posterior distribution over hidden states. In this model, variability in spiking is regarded not as a nuisance but as an integral feature that provides the variability necessary for sampling during inference. We demonstrate how the network can learn the likelihood model, as well as the transition probabilities underlying the dynamics, using a Hebbian learning rule. We present results illustrating the ability of the network to perform inference and learning for arbitrary hidden Markov models.
Hierarchical Bayesian sparse image reconstruction with application to MRFM.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobigeon, Nicolas; Hero, Alfred O; Tourneret, Jean-Yves

2009-09-01

This paper presents a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct sparse images when the observations are obtained from linear transformations and corrupted by an additive white Gaussian noise. Our hierarchical Bayes model is well suited to such naturally sparse image applications as it seamlessly accounts for properties such as sparsity and positivity of the image via appropriate Bayes priors. We propose a prior that is based on a weighted mixture of a positive exponential distribution and a mass at zero. The prior has hyperparameters that are tuned automatically by marginalization over the hierarchical Bayesian model. To overcome the complexity of the posterior distribution, a Gibbs sampling strategy is proposed. The Gibbs samples can be used to estimate the image to be recovered, e.g., by maximizing the estimated posterior distribution. In our fully Bayesian approach, the posteriors of all the parameters are available. Thus, our algorithm provides more information than other previously proposed sparse reconstruction methods that only give a point estimate. The performance of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian sparse reconstruction method is illustrated on synthetic data and real data collected from a tobacco virus sample using a prototype MRFM instrument.
Bayesian inference of chemical kinetic models from proposed reactions

KAUST Repository

Galagali, Nikhil

2015-02-01

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. Bayesian inference provides a natural framework for combining experimental data with prior knowledge to develop chemical kinetic models and quantify the associated uncertainties, not only in parameter values but also in model structure. Most existing applications of Bayesian model selection methods to chemical kinetics have been limited to comparisons among a small set of models, however. The significant computational cost of evaluating posterior model probabilities renders traditional Bayesian methods infeasible when the model space becomes large. We present a new framework for tractable Bayesian model inference and uncertainty quantification using a large number of systematically generated model hypotheses. The approach involves imposing point-mass mixture priors over rate constants and exploring the resulting posterior distribution using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The posterior samples are used to identify plausible models, to quantify rate constant uncertainties, and to extract key diagnostic information about model structure-such as the reactions and operating pathways most strongly supported by the data. We provide numerical demonstrations of the proposed framework by inferring kinetic models for catalytic steam and dry reforming of methane using available experimental data.
STAR CLUSTER PROPERTIES IN TWO LEGUS GALAXIES COMPUTED WITH STOCHASTIC STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krumholz, Mark R. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Adamo, Angela [Department of Astronomy, Oskar Klein Centre, Stockholm University, SE-10691 Stockholm (Sweden); Fumagalli, Michele [Institute for Computational Cosmology and Centre for Extragalactic Astronomy, Department of Physics, Durham University, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Wofford, Aida [Institut d’Astrophysique de Paris, 98bis Boulevard Arago, F-75014 Paris (France); Calzetti, Daniela; Grasha, Kathryn [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts–Amherst, Amherst, MA (United States); Lee, Janice C.; Whitmore, Bradley C.; Bright, Stacey N.; Ubeda, Leonardo [Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD (United States); Gouliermis, Dimitrios A. [Centre for Astronomy, Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg (Germany); Kim, Hwihyun [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Nair, Preethi [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, AL (United States); Ryon, Jenna E. [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI (United States); Smith, Linda J. [European Space Agency/Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, MD (United States); Thilker, David [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (United States); Zackrisson, Erik, E-mail: mkrumhol@ucsc.edu, E-mail: adamo@astro.su.se [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, Uppsala (Sweden)

2015-10-20

We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.
Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Xiaodong; Yu, Cindy L.; Hayes, Dermot J.

2011-01-01

This paper assesses factors that potentially influence the volatility of crude oil prices and the possible linkage between this volatility and agricultural commodity markets. Stochastic volatility models are applied to weekly crude oil, corn, and wheat futures prices from November 1998 to January 2009. Model parameters are estimated using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Speculation, scalping, and petroleum inventories are found to be important in explaining the volatility of crude oil prices. Several properties of crude oil price dynamics are established, including mean-reversion, an asymmetry between returns and volatility, volatility clustering, and infrequent compound jumps. We find evidence of volatility spillover among crude oil, corn, and wheat markets after the fall of 2006. This can be largely explained by tightened interdependence between crude oil and these commodity markets induced by ethanol production.
Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2013-07-26

Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.
Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faming Liang

Full Text Available Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD, to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i (Global association test Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii (Causal variant detection Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.
Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming; Xiong, Momiao

2013-01-01

Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.
Bayesian Averaging is Well-Temperated

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Lars Kai

2000-01-01

Bayesian predictions are stochastic just like predictions of any other inference scheme that generalize from a finite sample. While a simple variational argument shows that Bayes averaging is generalization optimal given that the prior matches the teacher parameter distribution the situation is l...
Differentiated Bayesian Conjoint Choice Designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Z. Sándor (Zsolt); M. Wedel (Michel)

2003-01-01

textabstractPrevious conjoint choice design construction procedures have produced a single design that is administered to all subjects. This paper proposes to construct a limited set of different designs. The designs are constructed in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account prior uncertainty about
Bayesian NL interpretation and learning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zeevat, H.

2011-01-01

Everyday natural language communication is normally successful, even though contemporary computational linguistics has shown that NL is characterised by very high degree of ambiguity and the results of stochastic methods are not good enough to explain the high success rate. Bayesian natural language
Compulsive buying disorder clustering based on sex, age, onset and personality traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Granero, Roser; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Baño, Marta; Steward, Trevor; Mestre-Bach, Gemma; Del Pino-Gutiérrez, Amparo; Moragas, Laura; Mallorquí-Bagué, Núria; Aymamí, Neus; Goméz-Peña, Mónica; Tárrega, Salomé; Menchón, José M; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

2016-07-01

In spite of the revived interest in compulsive buying disorder (CBD), its classification into the contemporary nosologic systems continues to be debated, and scarce studies have addressed heterogeneity in the clinical phenotype through methodologies based on a person-centered approach. To identify empirical clusters of CBD employing personality traits, as well as patients' sex, age and the age of CBD onset as indicators. An agglomerative hierarchical clustering method defining a combination of the Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion and log-likelihood was used. Three clusters were identified in a sample of n=110 patients attending a specialized CBD unit a) "male compulsive buyers" reported the highest prevalence of comorbid gambling disorder and the lowest levels of reward dependence; b) "female low-dysfunctional" mainly included employed women, with the highest level of education, the oldest age of onset, the lowest scores in harm avoidance and the highest levels of persistence, self-directedness and cooperativeness; and c) "female highly-dysfunctional" with the youngest age of onset, the highest levels of comorbid psychopathology and harm avoidance, and the lowest score in self-directedness. Sociodemographic characteristics and personality traits can be used to determine CBD clusters which represent different clinical subtypes. These subtypes should be considered when developing assessment instruments, preventive programs and treatment interventions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
An elementary introduction to Bayesian computing using WinBUGS.

Science.gov (United States)

Fryback, D G; Stout, N K; Rosenberg, M A

2001-01-01

Bayesian statistics provides effective techniques for analyzing data and translating the results to inform decision making. This paper provides an elementary tutorial overview of the WinBUGS software for performing Bayesian statistical analysis. Background information on the computational methods used by the software is provided. Two examples drawn from the field of medical decision making are presented to illustrate the features and functionality of the software.
Bayesian network modeling of operator's state recognition process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatakeyama, Naoki; Furuta, Kazuo

2000-01-01

Nowadays we are facing a difficult problem of establishing a good relation between humans and machines. To solve this problem, we suppose that machine system need to have a model of human behavior. In this study we model the state cognition process of a PWR plant operator as an example. We use a Bayesian network as an inference engine. We incorporate the knowledge hierarchy in the Bayesian network and confirm its validity using the example of PWR plant operator. (author)
Bayesian estimation methods in metrology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, M.G.; Forbes, A.B.; Harris, P.M.

2004-01-01

In metrology -- the science of measurement -- a measurement result must be accompanied by a statement of its associated uncertainty. The degree of validity of a measurement result is determined by the validity of the uncertainty statement. In recognition of the importance of uncertainty evaluation, the International Standardization Organization in 1995 published the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement and the Guide has been widely adopted. The validity of uncertainty statements is tested in interlaboratory comparisons in which an artefact is measured by a number of laboratories and their measurement results compared. Since the introduction of the Mutual Recognition Arrangement, key comparisons are being undertaken to determine the degree of equivalence of laboratories for particular measurement tasks. In this paper, we discuss the possible development of the Guide to reflect Bayesian approaches and the evaluation of key comparison data using Bayesian estimation methods
[Bayesian approach for the cost-effectiveness evaluation of healthcare technologies].

Science.gov (United States)

Berchialla, Paola; Gregori, Dario; Brunello, Franco; Veltri, Andrea; Petrinco, Michele; Pagano, Eva

2009-01-01

The development of Bayesian statistical methods for the assessment of the cost-effectiveness of health care technologies is reviewed. Although many studies adopt a frequentist approach, several authors have advocated the use of Bayesian methods in health economics. Emphasis has been placed on the advantages of the Bayesian approach, which include: (i) the ability to make more intuitive and meaningful inferences; (ii) the ability to tackle complex problems, such as allowing for the inclusion of patients who generate no cost, thanks to the availability of powerful computational algorithms; (iii) the importance of a full use of quantitative and structural prior information to produce realistic inferences. Much literature comparing the cost-effectiveness of two treatments is based on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. However, new methods are arising with the purpose of decision making. These methods are based on a net benefits approach. In the present context, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves have been pointed out to be intrinsically Bayesian in their formulation. They plot the probability of a positive net benefit against the threshold cost of a unit increase in efficacy.A case study is presented in order to illustrate the Bayesian statistics in the cost-effectiveness analysis. Emphasis is placed on the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Advantages and disadvantages of the method described in this paper have been compared to frequentist methods and discussed.

Numerical methods for Bayesian inference in the face of aging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarotti, C.A.; Villain, B.; Procaccia, H.

1996-01-01

In recent years, much attention has been paid to Bayesian methods for Risk Assessment. Until now, these methods have been studied from a theoretical point of view. Researchers have been mainly interested in: studying the effectiveness of Bayesian methods in handling rare events; debating about the problem of priors and other philosophical issues. An aspect central to the Bayesian approach is numerical computation because any safety/reliability problem, in a Bayesian frame, ends with a problem of numerical integration. This aspect has been neglected until now because most Risk studies assumed the Exponential model as the basic probabilistic model. The existence of conjugate priors makes numerical integration unnecessary in this case. If aging is to be taken into account, no conjugate family is available and the use of numerical integration becomes compulsory. EDF (National Board of Electricity, of France) and ENEA (National Committee for Energy, New Technologies and Environment, of Italy) jointly carried out a research program aimed at developing quadrature methods suitable for Bayesian Interference with underlying Weibull or gamma distributions. The paper will illustrate the main results achieved during the above research program and will discuss, via some sample cases, the performances of the numerical algorithms which on the appearance of stress corrosion cracking in the tubes of Steam Generators of PWR French power plants. (authors)
Experiences in applying Bayesian integrative models in interdisciplinary modeling: the computational and human challenges

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kuikka, Sakari; Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Helle, Inari

2011-01-01

We review the experience obtained in using integrative Bayesian models in interdisciplinary analysis focusing on sustainable use of marine resources and environmental management tasks. We have applied Bayesian models to both fisheries and environmental risk analysis problems. Bayesian belief...... be time consuming and research projects can be difficult to manage due to unpredictable technical problems related to parameter estimation. Biology, sociology and environmental economics have their own scientific traditions. Bayesian models are becoming traditional tools in fisheries biology, where...
Non-Bayesian decision theory beliefs and desires as reasons for action

CERN Document Server

Peterson, Martin

2008-01-01

This book aims to present an account of rational choice from a non-Bayesian point of view. It provides the first non-Bayesian account of normative decision theory and includes a formal account of the framing of decision problems.
Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe Lemey

2009-09-01

Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.
A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology: The last 25 years.

Science.gov (United States)

van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja D; Ryan, Oisín; Zondervan-Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; Depaoli, Sarah

2017-06-01

Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statistics plays in psychology. This historical assessment allows us to identify trends and see how Bayesian methods have been integrated into psychological research in the context of different statistical frameworks (e.g., hypothesis testing, cognitive models, IRT, SEM, etc.). We also describe take-home messages and provide "big-picture" recommendations to the field as Bayesian statistics becomes more popular. Our review indicated that Bayesian statistics is used in a variety of contexts across subfields of psychology and related disciplines. There are many different reasons why one might choose to use Bayes (e.g., the use of priors, estimating otherwise intractable models, modeling uncertainty, etc.). We found in this review that the use of Bayes has increased and broadened in the sense that this methodology can be used in a flexible manner to tackle many different forms of questions. We hope this presentation opens the door for a larger discussion regarding the current state of Bayesian statistics, as well as future trends. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Bayesian Classification of Image Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Goswami, Dibyendu; Kalkan, Sinan; Krüger, Norbert

2009-01-01

In this paper, we describe work on Bayesian classi ers for distinguishing between homogeneous structures, textures, edges and junctions. We build semi-local classiers from hand-labeled images to distinguish between these four different kinds of structures based on the concept of intrinsic dimensi...
3-D contextual Bayesian classifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Rasmus

In this paper we will consider extensions of a series of Bayesian 2-D contextual classification pocedures proposed by Owen (1984) Hjort & Mohn (1984) and Welch & Salter (1971) and Haslett (1985) to 3 spatial dimensions. It is evident that compared to classical pixelwise classification further...
A Revised Velocity for the Globular Cluster GC-98 in the Ultra Diffuse Galaxy NGC 1052-DF2

Science.gov (United States)

van Dokkum, Pieter; Cohen, Yotam; Danieli, Shany; Romanowsky, Aaron; Abraham, Roberto; Brodie, Jean; Conroy, Charlie; Kruijssen, J. M. Diederik; Lokhorst, Deborah; Merritt, Allison; Mowla, Lamiya; Zhang, Jielai

2018-06-01

We recently published velocity measurements of luminous globular clusters in the galaxy NGC1052-DF2, concluding that it lies far off the canonical stellar mass - halo mass relation. Here we present a revised velocity for one of the globular clusters, GC-98, and a revised velocity dispersion measurement for the galaxy. We find that the intrinsic dispersion $\\sigma=5.6^{+5.2}_{-3.8}$ km/s using Approximate Bayesian Computation, or $\\sigma=7.8^{+5.2}_{-2.2}$ km/s using the likelihood. The expected dispersion from the stars alone is ~7 km/s. Responding to a request from the Editors of ApJ Letters and RNAAS, we also briefly comment on the recent analysis of our measurements by Martin et al. (2018).
Spatial Patterns of Ischemic Heart Disease in Shenzhen, China: A Bayesian Multi-Disease Modelling Approach to Inform Health Planning Policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Qingyun; Zhang, Mingxiao; Li, Yayan; Luan, Hui; Liang, Shi; Ren, Fu

2016-04-20

Incorporating the information of hypertension, this paper applies Bayesian multi-disease analysis to model the spatial patterns of Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) risks. Patterns of harmful alcohol intake (HAI) and overweight/obesity are also modelled as they are common risk factors contributing to both IHD and hypertension. The hospitalization data of IHD and hypertension in 2012 were analyzed with three Bayesian multi-disease models at the sub-district level of Shenzhen. Results revealed that the IHD high-risk cluster shifted slightly north-eastward compared with the IHD Standardized Hospitalization Ratio (SHR). Spatial variations of overweight/obesity and HAI were found to contribute most to the IHD patterns. Identified patterns of IHD risk would benefit IHD integrated prevention. Spatial patterns of overweight/obesity and HAI could supplement the current disease surveillance system by providing information about small-area level risk factors, and thus benefit integrated prevention of related chronic diseases. Middle southern Shenzhen, where high risk of IHD, overweight/obesity, and HAI are present, should be prioritized for interventions, including alcohol control, innovative healthy diet toolkit distribution, insurance system revision, and community-based chronic disease intervention. Related health resource planning is also suggested to focus on these areas first.
Bayesian adaptive methods for clinical trials

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Berry, Scott M

2011-01-01

.... One is that Bayesian approaches implemented with the majority of their informative content coming from the current data, and not any external prior informa- tion, typically have good frequentist properties (e.g...
CytoBayesJ: software tools for Bayesian analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data.

Science.gov (United States)

Ainsbury, Elizabeth A; Vinnikov, Volodymyr; Puig, Pedro; Maznyk, Nataliya; Rothkamm, Kai; Lloyd, David C

2013-08-30

A number of authors have suggested that a Bayesian approach may be most appropriate for analysis of cytogenetic radiation dosimetry data. In the Bayesian framework, probability of an event is described in terms of previous expectations and uncertainty. Previously existing, or prior, information is used in combination with experimental results to infer probabilities or the likelihood that a hypothesis is true. It has been shown that the Bayesian approach increases both the accuracy and quality assurance of radiation dose estimates. New software entitled CytoBayesJ has been developed with the aim of bringing Bayesian analysis to cytogenetic biodosimetry laboratory practice. CytoBayesJ takes a number of Bayesian or 'Bayesian like' methods that have been proposed in the literature and presents them to the user in the form of simple user-friendly tools, including testing for the most appropriate model for distribution of chromosome aberrations and calculations of posterior probability distributions. The individual tools are described in detail and relevant examples of the use of the methods and the corresponding CytoBayesJ software tools are given. In this way, the suitability of the Bayesian approach to biological radiation dosimetry is highlighted and its wider application encouraged by providing a user-friendly software interface and manual in English and Russian. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Bayesian Estimation and Inference using Stochastic Hardware

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chetan Singh Thakur

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker, demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND, we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.
Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.

Science.gov (United States)

Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream.
Applying Bayesian Statistics to Educational Evaluation. Theoretical Paper No. 62.

Science.gov (United States)

Brumet, Michael E.

Bayesian statistical inference is unfamiliar to many educational evaluators. While the classical model is useful in educational research, it is not as useful in evaluation because of the need to identify solutions to practical problems based on a wide spectrum of information. The reason Bayesian analysis is effective for decision making is that it…
Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model

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Marick S. Sinay

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.
Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peter G. Groer

2002-01-01

We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed compartmental activities. From the estimated probability densities of the model parameters we were able to derive the densities for compartmental activities for a two compartment catenary model at different times. We also calculated the average activities and their standard deviation for a simple two compartment model
Bayesian nonparametric variable selection as an exploratory tool for discovering differentially expressed genes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shahbaba, Babak; Johnson, Wesley O

2013-05-30

High-throughput scientific studies involving no clear a priori hypothesis are common. For example, a large-scale genomic study of a disease may examine thousands of genes without hypothesizing that any specific gene is responsible for the disease. In these studies, the objective is to explore a large number of possible factors (e.g., genes) in order to identify a small number that will be considered in follow-up studies that tend to be more thorough and on smaller scales. A simple, hierarchical, linear regression model with random coefficients is assumed for case-control data that correspond to each gene. The specific model used will be seen to be related to a standard Bayesian variable selection model. Relatively large regression coefficients correspond to potential differences in responses for cases versus controls and thus to genes that might 'matter'. For large-scale studies, and using a Dirichlet process mixture model for the regression coefficients, we are able to find clusters of regression effects of genes with increasing potential effect or 'relevance', in relation to the outcome of interest. One cluster will always correspond to genes whose coefficients are in a neighborhood that is relatively close to zero and will be deemed least relevant. Other clusters will correspond to increasing magnitudes of the random/latent regression coefficients. Using simulated data, we demonstrate that our approach could be quite effective in finding relevant genes compared with several alternative methods. We apply our model to two large-scale studies. The first study involves transcriptome analysis of infection by human cytomegalovirus. The second study's objective is to identify differentially expressed genes between two types of leukemia. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A computational Bayesian approach to dependency assessment in system reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yontay, Petek; Pan, Rong

2016-01-01

Due to the increasing complexity of engineered products, it is of great importance to develop a tool to assess reliability dependencies among components and systems under the uncertainty of system reliability structure. In this paper, a Bayesian network approach is proposed for evaluating the conditional probability of failure within a complex system, using a multilevel system configuration. Coupling with Bayesian inference, the posterior distributions of these conditional probabilities can be estimated by combining failure information and expert opinions at both system and component levels. Three data scenarios are considered in this study, and they demonstrate that, with the quantification of the stochastic relationship of reliability within a system, the dependency structure in system reliability can be gradually revealed by the data collected at different system levels. - Highlights: • A Bayesian network representation of system reliability is presented. • Bayesian inference methods for assessing dependencies in system reliability are developed. • Complete and incomplete data scenarios are discussed. • The proposed approach is able to integrate reliability information from multiple sources at multiple levels of the system.
Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kárný, Miroslav

2014-01-01

Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf
BDgraph: An R Package for Bayesian Structure Learning in Graphical Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mohammadi, A.; Wit, E.C.

2017-01-01

Graphical models provide powerful tools to uncover complicated patterns in multivariate data and are commonly used in Bayesian statistics and machine learning. In this paper, we introduce an R package BDgraph which performs Bayesian structure learning for general undirected graphical models with

Management measures and fishers’ commitment towards sustainable exploitation: a case study of Atlantic salmon fisheries in the Baltic Sea

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haapasaari, Päivi Elisabet; Michielsens, Catherina C.G.J.; Karjalainen, Timo P.

2007-01-01

management measures on the stocks. Based on interviews and a questionnaire, we use a Bayesian belief network to examine which factors determine ﬁshers’ commitment to sustainable ﬁsheries goals, what impact commitment has on exploitation rate, and what measures can be taken to improve commitment. In addition...... of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks. The results indicate that the more ﬁshers rely on ﬁshing as their source of income, the less is their commitment and the smaller is the impact of changes in commitment on subsequent catches. The results suggest that commitment can be improved by selecting management...
The effect of Cu (II) on the electro-olfactogram (EOG) of the Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L) in artificial freshwater of varying inorganic carbon concentrations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winberg, S; Bjerselius, R; Baatrup, E

1993-01-01

The effect of inorganic copper species was studied by recording the receptor potential, electro-olfactogram (EOG), from the olfactory epithelium of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L). In a series of experiments, the olfactory organ was irrigated with aqueous copper solutions with concentrations...... of the free cupric ion (Cu2+) ranging from 0.2 to 9.7 microM. The diverse copper species were created by varying the amount of bicarbonate (NaHCO3) in artificial freshwater solutions of equal total copper concentrations. In general, these copper solutions induced a slow depolarization of the baseline followed...
Bayesian parameter estimation in probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siu, Nathan O.; Kelly, Dana L.

1998-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are widely used in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) because of their ability to provide useful estimates of model parameters when data are sparse and because the subjective probability framework, from which these methods are derived, is a natural framework to address the decision problems motivating PRA. This paper presents a tutorial on Bayesian parameter estimation especially relevant to PRA. It summarizes the philosophy behind these methods, approaches for constructing likelihood functions and prior distributions, some simple but realistic examples, and a variety of cautions and lessons regarding practical applications. References are also provided for more in-depth coverage of various topics
Length Scales in Bayesian Automatic Adaptive Quadrature

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Adam Gh.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Two conceptual developments in the Bayesian automatic adaptive quadrature approach to the numerical solution of one-dimensional Riemann integrals [Gh. Adam, S. Adam, Springer LNCS 7125, 1–16 (2012] are reported. First, it is shown that the numerical quadrature which avoids the overcomputing and minimizes the hidden floating point loss of precision asks for the consideration of three classes of integration domain lengths endowed with specific quadrature sums: microscopic (trapezoidal rule, mesoscopic (Simpson rule, and macroscopic (quadrature sums of high algebraic degrees of precision. Second, sensitive diagnostic tools for the Bayesian inference on macroscopic ranges, coming from the use of Clenshaw-Curtis quadrature, are derived.
A systematic review of Bayesian articles in psychology : The last 25 years

OpenAIRE

van de Schoot, Rens; Winter, Sonja; Ryan, Oisín; Zondervan - Zwijnenburg, Mariëlle; Depaoli, Sarah

2017-01-01

Although the statistical tools most often used by researchers in the field of psychology over the last 25 years are based on frequentist statistics, it is often claimed that the alternative Bayesian approach to statistics is gaining in popularity. In the current article, we investigated this claim by performing the very first systematic review of Bayesian psychological articles published between 1990 and 2015 (n = 1,579). We aim to provide a thorough presentation of the role Bayesian statisti...
Bayesian models for astrophysical data using R, JAGS, Python, and Stan

CERN Document Server

Hilbe, Joseph M; Ishida, Emille E O

2017-01-01

This comprehensive guide to Bayesian methods in astronomy enables hands-on work by supplying complete R, JAGS, Python, and Stan code, to use directly or to adapt. It begins by examining the normal model from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives and then progresses to a full range of Bayesian generalized linear and mixed or hierarchical models, as well as additional types of models such as ABC and INLA. The book provides code that is largely unavailable elsewhere and includes details on interpreting and evaluating Bayesian models. Initial discussions offer models in synthetic form so that readers can easily adapt them to their own data; later the models are applied to real astronomical data. The consistent focus is on hands-on modeling, analysis of data, and interpretations that address scientific questions. A must-have for astronomers, its concrete approach will also be attractive to researchers in the sciences more generally.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Data Analysis in Astronomy

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Sanjib

2017-08-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo based Bayesian data analysis has now become the method of choice for analyzing and interpreting data in almost all disciplines of science. In astronomy, over the last decade, we have also seen a steady increase in the number of papers that employ Monte Carlo based Bayesian analysis. New, efficient Monte Carlo based methods are continuously being developed and explored. In this review, we first explain the basics of Bayesian theory and discuss how to set up data analysis problems within this framework. Next, we provide an overview of various Monte Carlo based methods for performing Bayesian data analysis. Finally, we discuss advanced ideas that enable us to tackle complex problems and thus hold great promise for the future. We also distribute downloadable computer software (available at https://github.com/sanjibs/bmcmc/ ) that implements some of the algorithms and examples discussed here.
Bayesian Sampling using Condition Indicators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Faber, Michael H.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2002-01-01

of condition indicators introduced by Benjamin and Cornell (1970) a Bayesian approach to quality control is formulated. The formulation is then extended to the case where the quality control is based on sampling of indirect information about the condition of the components, i.e. condition indicators...
Identification of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) by using polymerase chain reaction amplification and restriction analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene.

Science.gov (United States)

Carrera, E; García, T; Céspedes, A; González, I; Sanz, B; Hernández, P E; Martín, R

1998-04-01

Restriction site analysis of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) products from a conserved region of the cytochrome b gene has been used for the identification of fresh and smoked samples of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Digestion of the 359-bp PCR product with the endonucleases EcoRV and TaqI yielded specific banding patterns for salmon and trout. This genetic marker can be very useful for detecting fraudulent substitution of the cheaper smoked trout for the more expensive smoked salmon.
Supplementing a commercial diet for atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) with arginine, glutamate or tetradecylthioacetic acid (TTA). impact on production efficiency, slaughter parameters and flesh quality

OpenAIRE

Rahnama, Behzad

2010-01-01

The present study was carried out to evaluate the effects of supplementing a commercial diets with 1.5% L-arginine, 1.5% L-glutamate or 0.25% tetradecylthioacetic acid (TTA) on feed intake, feed utilization and growth parameters of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) during the critical periods after sea transfer with regard to seawater adaptation and onwards, from April to September. In the case of TTA, fish were fed until they reached a weight gain of 0.2% of the initial body weight, thereafte...
Bayesian calibration of simultaneity in audiovisual temporal order judgments.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shinya Yamamoto

Full Text Available After repeated exposures to two successive audiovisual stimuli presented in one frequent order, participants eventually perceive a pair separated by some lag time in the same order as occurring simultaneously (lag adaptation. In contrast, we previously found that perceptual changes occurred in the opposite direction in response to tactile stimuli, conforming to bayesian integration theory (bayesian calibration. We further showed, in theory, that the effect of bayesian calibration cannot be observed when the lag adaptation was fully operational. This led to the hypothesis that bayesian calibration affects judgments regarding the order of audiovisual stimuli, but that this effect is concealed behind the lag adaptation mechanism. In the present study, we showed that lag adaptation is pitch-insensitive using two sounds at 1046 and 1480 Hz. This enabled us to cancel lag adaptation by associating one pitch with sound-first stimuli and the other with light-first stimuli. When we presented each type of stimulus (high- or low-tone in a different block, the point of simultaneity shifted to "sound-first" for the pitch associated with sound-first stimuli, and to "light-first" for the pitch associated with light-first stimuli. These results are consistent with lag adaptation. In contrast, when we delivered each type of stimulus in a randomized order, the point of simultaneity shifted to "light-first" for the pitch associated with sound-first stimuli, and to "sound-first" for the pitch associated with light-first stimuli. The results clearly show that bayesian calibration is pitch-specific and is at work behind pitch-insensitive lag adaptation during temporal order judgment of audiovisual stimuli.
Quantum Bayesian rule for weak measurements of qubits in superconducting circuit QED

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Peiyue; Qin, Lupei; Li, Xin-Qi

2014-01-01

Compared with the quantum trajectory equation (QTE), the quantum Bayesian approach has the advantage of being more efficient to infer a quantum state under monitoring, based on the integrated output of measurements. For weak measurement of qubits in circuit quantum electrodynamics (cQED), properly accounting for the measurement backaction effects within the Bayesian framework is an important problem of current interest. Elegant work towards this task was carried out by Korotkov in ‘bad-cavity’ and weak-response limits (Korotkov 2011 Quantum Bayesian approach to circuit QED measurement (arXiv:1111.4016)). In the present work, based on insights from the cavity-field states (dynamics) and the help of an effective QTE, we generalize the results of Korotkov to more general system parameters. The obtained Bayesian rule is in full agreement with Korotkov's result in limiting cases and as well holds satisfactory accuracy in non-limiting cases in comparison with the QTE simulations. We expect the proposed Bayesian rule to be useful for future cQED measurement and control experiments. (paper)
Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.
Genetic variation in threshold reaction norms for alternative reproductive tactics in male Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar.

Science.gov (United States)

Piché, Jacinthe; Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Blanchard, Wade

2008-07-07

Alternative reproductive tactics may be a product of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, such that discontinuous variation in life history depends on both the genotype and the environment. Phenotypes that fall below a genetically determined threshold adopt one tactic, while those exceeding the threshold adopt the alternative tactic. We report evidence of genetic variability in maturation thresholds for male Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that mature either as large (more than 1 kg) anadromous males or as small (10-150 g) parr. Using a common-garden experimental protocol, we find that the growth rate at which the sneaker parr phenotype is expressed differs among pure- and mixed-population crosses. Maturation thresholds of hybrids were intermediate to those of pure crosses, consistent with the hypothesis that the life-history switch points are heritable. Our work provides evidence, for a vertebrate, that thresholds for alternative reproductive tactics differ genetically among populations and can be modelled as discontinuous reaction norms for age and size at maturity.
Effects of passive integrated transponder tags on survival and growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Martin Hage; Thorn, Aske N.; Skov, Christian

2013-01-01

Background: A laboratory experiment was conducted to assess the potential impacts of surgically implanted 23 and 32 mm passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags on survival, growth, and body condition of juvenile Atlantic salmon Salmo salar. Rate of tag retention and healing of the tagging incision...... were also evaluated. Atlantic salmon of three different size classes (I: 80 to 99 mm fork length (FL), II: 100 to 119 mm FL, III: 120 to 135 mm FL) were allocated to each of five experimental treatment groups: control, sham-operated (surgery without PIT-tag implantation), 23 mm PIT-tag implantation...... with and without suture closure of the incision, and 32 mm PIT-tag implantation without suture closure. Results: Over the 35-day experiment, mortality occurred only among fish tagged with 32 mm PIT tags (14%) and all fish larger than 103 mm FL survived. Non-sutured Atlantic salmon between 80 and 99 mm FL implanted...
Bayesian logistic regression approaches to predict incorrect DRG assignment.

Science.gov (United States)

Suleiman, Mani; Demirhan, Haydar; Boyd, Leanne; Girosi, Federico; Aksakalli, Vural

2018-05-07

Episodes of care involving similar diagnoses and treatments and requiring similar levels of resource utilisation are grouped to the same Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG). In jurisdictions which implement DRG based payment systems, DRGs are a major determinant of funding for inpatient care. Hence, service providers often dedicate auditing staff to the task of checking that episodes have been coded to the correct DRG. The use of statistical models to estimate an episode's probability of DRG error can significantly improve the efficiency of clinical coding audits. This study implements Bayesian logistic regression models with weakly informative prior distributions to estimate the likelihood that episodes require a DRG revision, comparing these models with each other and to classical maximum likelihood estimates. All Bayesian approaches had more stable model parameters than maximum likelihood. The best performing Bayesian model improved overall classification per- formance by 6% compared to maximum likelihood, with a 34% gain compared to random classification, respectively. We found that the original DRG, coder and the day of coding all have a significant effect on the likelihood of DRG error. Use of Bayesian approaches has improved model parameter stability and classification accuracy. This method has already lead to improved audit efficiency in an operational capacity.
Bayesian inference on proportional elections.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe Brunello

Full Text Available Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software.
Use of SAMC for Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants

KAUST Repository

Jin, Ick Hoon

2014-03-01

Statistical inference for the models with intractable normalizing constants has attracted much attention. During the past two decades, various approximation- or simulation-based methods have been proposed for the problem, such as the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method and the auxiliary variable Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm specifically addresses this problem: It works by sampling from a sequence of approximate distributions with their average converging to the target posterior distribution, where the approximate distributions can be achieved using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm. A strong law of large numbers is established for the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo estimator under mild conditions. Compared to the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood method, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm is more robust to the initial guess of model parameters. Compared to the auxiliary variable MCMC methods, the Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm avoids the requirement for perfect samples, and thus can be applied to many models for which perfect sampling is not available or very expensive. The Bayesian stochastic approximation Monte Carlo algorithm also provides a general framework for approximate Bayesian analysis. © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Microbial Activity Response to Solar Radiation across Contrasting Environmental Conditions in Salar de Huasco, Northern Chilean Altiplano.

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández, Klaudia L; Yannicelli, Beatriz; Olsen, Lasse M; Dorador, Cristina; Menschel, Eduardo J; Molina, Verónica; Remonsellez, Francisco; Hengst, Martha B; Jeffrey, Wade H

2016-01-01

In high altitude environments, extreme levels of solar radiation and important differences of ionic concentrations over narrow spatial scales may modulate microbial activity. In Salar de Huasco, a high-altitude wetland in the Andean mountains, the high diversity of microbial communities has been characterized and associated with strong environmental variability. Communities that differed in light history and environmental conditions, such as nutrient concentrations and salinity from different spatial locations, were assessed for bacterial secondary production (BSP, 3 H-leucine incorporation) response from short-term exposures to solar radiation. We sampled during austral spring seven stations categorized as: (a) source stations, with recently emerged groundwater (no-previous solar exposure); (b) stream running water stations; (c) stations connected to source waters but far downstream from source points; and (d) isolated ponds disconnected from ground sources or streams with a longer isolation and solar exposure history. Very high values of 0.25 μE m -2 s -1 , 72 W m -2 and 12 W m -2 were measured for PAR, UVA, and UVB incident solar radiation, respectively. The environmental factors measured formed two groups of stations reflected by principal component analyses (near to groundwater sources and isolated systems) where isolated ponds had the highest BSP and microbial abundance (35 microalgae taxa, picoeukaryotes, nanoflagellates, and bacteria) plus higher salinities and PO 4 3- concentrations. BSP short-term response (4 h) to solar radiation was measured by 3 H-leucine incorporation under four different solar conditions: full sun, no UVB, PAR, and dark. Microbial communities established in waters with the longest surface exposure (e.g., isolated ponds) had the lowest BSP response to solar radiation treatments, and thus were likely best adapted to solar radiation exposure contrary to ground source waters. These results support our light history (solar exposure
On the prior probabilities for two-stage Bayesian estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kohut, P.

1992-01-01

The method of Bayesian inference is reexamined for its applicability and for the required underlying assumptions in obtaining and using prior probability estimates. Two different approaches are suggested to determine the first-stage priors in the two-stage Bayesian analysis which avoid certain assumptions required for other techniques. In the first scheme, the prior is obtained through a true frequency based distribution generated at selected intervals utilizing actual sampling of the failure rate distributions. The population variability distribution is generated as the weighed average of the frequency distributions. The second method is based on a non-parametric Bayesian approach using the Maximum Entropy Principle. Specific features such as integral properties or selected parameters of prior distributions may be obtained with minimal assumptions. It is indicated how various quantiles may also be generated with a least square technique

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