WorldWideScience

Sample records for safety trend prediction

  1. Trends Prediction Using Social Diffusion Models

    OpenAIRE

    Altshuler, Yaniv; Pan, Wei; Pentland, Alex

    2011-01-01

    The importance of the ability to predict trends in social media has been growing rapidly in the past few years with the growing dominance of social media in our everyday’s life. Whereas many works focus on the detection of anomalies in networks, there exist little theoretical work on the prediction of the likelihood of anomalous network pattern to globally spread and become “trends”. In this work we present an analytic model for the social diffusion dynamics of spreading network patterns. Our...

  2. The predictive validity of safety climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephen E

    2007-01-01

    Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group

  3. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  4. Mining Behavior Based Safety Data to Predict Safety Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffrey C. Joe

    2010-06-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) operates a behavior based safety program called Safety Observations Achieve Results (SOAR). This peer-to-peer observation program encourages employees to perform in-field observations of each other's work practices and habits (i.e., behaviors). The underlying premise of conducting these observations is that more serious accidents are prevented from occurring because lower level “at risk” behaviors are identified and corrected before they can propagate into culturally accepted “unsafe” behaviors that result in injuries or fatalities. Although the approach increases employee involvement in safety, the premise of the program has not been subject to sufficient empirical evaluation. The INL now has a significant amount of SOAR data on these lower level “at risk” behaviors. This paper describes the use of data mining techniques to analyze these data to determine whether they can predict if and when a more serious accident will occur.

  5. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. It was a cross-sectional study. All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents.

  7. Skillful predictions of decadal trends in global mean surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyfe, J. C.; Merryfield, W. J.; Kharin, V.; Boer, G. J.; Lee, W.-S.; von Salzen, K.

    2011-11-01

    We compare observed decadal trends in global mean surface temperature with those predicted using a modelling system that encompasses observed initial condition information, externally forced response (due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol precursors), and internally generated variability. We consider retrospective decadal forecasts for nine cases, initiated at five year intervals, with the first beginning in 1961 and the last in 2001. Forecast ensembles of size thirty are generated from differing but similar initial conditions. We concentrate on the trends that remain after removing the following natural signals in observations and hindcasts: dynamically induced atmospheric variability, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the effects of explosive volcanic eruptions. We show that ensemble mean errors in the decadal trend hindcasts are smaller than in a parallel set of uninitialized free running climate simulations. The ENSO signal, which is skillfully predicted out to a year or so, has little impact on our decadal trend predictions, and our modelling system possesses skill, independent of ENSO, in predicting decadal trends in global mean surface temperature.

  8. Predicting the Trends of Social Events on Chinese Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Lei; Liu, Xiaoqian; Zhang, Zhen; Bai, Shuotian; Zhu, Tingshao

    2017-09-01

    Growing interest in social events on social media came along with the rapid development of the Internet. Social events that occur in the "real" world can spread on social media (e.g., Sina Weibo) rapidly, which may trigger severe consequences and thus require the government's timely attention and responses. This article proposes to predict the trends of social events on Sina Weibo, which is currently the most popular social media in China. Based on the theories of social psychology and communication sciences, we extract an unprecedented amount of comprehensive and effective features that relate to the trends of social events on Chinese social media, and we construct the trends of prediction models by using three classical regression algorithms. We found that lasso regression performed better with the precision 0.78 and the recall 0.88. The results of our experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

  9. Trends in Area of Safety Communications within Industrial Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Franekova

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the problems of safety communication in industrial networks for purpose of assurance of functional safety. It is intents on analysis of treats on industry networks and there is described recommended safety protections and their location into layer communication protocol applicable in fieldbus network, which they are used within safety critical processes control.

  10. Trends impacting food safety in retail foodservice: implications for dietetics practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sneed, Jeannie; Strohbehn, Catherine H

    2008-07-01

    Food safety in retail foodservice is increasingly important to consumers. Trends that impact food safety concerns include the increasing number of meals eaten away from home, increasing consumer awareness about food safety, an aging population, changes in the foodservice workforce, changing technology in work environments, changes in food procurement, foodservice risk factors, and food defense concerns. Each of these trends has implications for dietetics practice, both in working with consumers and managing foodservice operations.

  11. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  12. A study of the international trend and comprehensive enhancement program on the Nuclear Power Plant safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Soon Hong; Cho, Nam Jin; Paek, Won Phil [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)] (and others)

    1990-12-15

    The objectives of this study are as follows : overview of the international trend related to the safety of Nuclear Power Plant(NPPs), study of the present status of NPP safety in Korea in aspects of design, construction and operation, suggestion of the comprehensive program to improve NPP safety in Korea. The results of this study can contribute to improve the safety of existing and future NPPs, and to establish the severe accident policy in Korea.

  13. Understanding and predicting trends in north Atlantic CO2 uptake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halloran, Paul; Lebehot, Alice; Watson, Andy; McNeall, Doug; Ford, David; Schuster, Ute

    2017-04-01

    To determine the maximum carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions society must commit to, to remain below a given atmospheric CO2 threshold, the scientific community must robustly quantify what proportion of human emitted CO2 will be taken up by the land and marine carbon reservoirs. The North Atlantic Ocean is the most intense marine sink of anthropogenic CO2 on the planet, accounting for about a fifth of the global oceanic anthropogenic CO2 uptake, despite covering just 15% of the global ocean area. Carefully assessing uncertainties, we quantify the real-world trend in North Atlantic CO2 uptake over the past two decades. Comparing this to results from state-of-the-art climate models, we find that models are systematically underestimating the observed CO2 uptake trend. By performing a set of targeted climate model simulations, we diagnose and account for this bias, and produce the first set of observation-informed future ocean CO2 uptake predictions.

  14. Trends in safety pharmacology: posters presented at the annual meetings of the Safety Pharmacology Society 2001-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redfern, William S; Valentin, Jean-Pierre

    2011-01-01

    The inaugural meeting of the Safety Pharmacology Society (SPS) was in 2001, soon after ICH S7A had been adopted. The 10th anniversary is an appropriate milestone at which to analyse trends in the science and themes of safety pharmacology, as reflected in posters presented at the annual meetings. The source information was the poster abstract booklets from each of the first ten annual meetings. The number of posters rose steadily from 34 in 2001 to 201 in 2010. The proportion of posters containing in vitro data has remained constant throughout the decade at ~30%. In terms of organ functions, themes relating to the cardiovascular system (CVS) have always generated the majority of posters, remaining above 60% of the total for the last 9years. The dominant theme has been around 'QT liability'. This peaked in 2003 at 68% of all posters presented, around the time of the ICHS7B discussions, and has remained above 30% thereafter. Apart from 2003 (dipping to 4%), CNS-related posters have remained steady at 11-17% throughout the decade. Respiratory-related posters have remained at 5-8% over the last 5years. Gastrointestinal (GI)-related posters have contributed 2-6% throughout the decade, and renal-related posters 1-3%. Posters on combined organ assessments have appeared in recent years. The relative emphasis on the different organ functions is broadly proportional to the causes of candidate drug attrition preclinically, whereas both CNS and GI are under-represented when considering their contribution to significant adverse effects during clinical development. Trends are either regulatory-driven (e.g. increase in posters on abuse-dependence liability since EMEA/CHMP/SWP/94227/2004), technology-driven (e.g. automated hERG assay; left ventricular function; non-invasive CVS measurements; stem cells, etc.), or relate to the predictive ability of safety pharmacology data (e.g. clinical translation initiatives; concordance between in vitro and in vivo preclinical data; integrated

  15. Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Newman, N.

    2017-01-01

    Publishers see the rise of fake news as a chance for quality journalism to stand out, even as they worry about the increasing power of big tech platforms, and about their own commercial prospects. Going into 2017, they also see opportunities in video, chat bots and voice-activated assistants, according to a new survey of almost 150 CEOs, Editors and digital leaders from 24 different countries. The survey is part of the Reuters Institute’s media trends and predictions report for 2017. ...

  16. State of global fisheries – trends and predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alicja Dabrowska

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available As human population on Earth has just reached seven billion, food, freshwater and energy supplies are of increasing concern. With fisheries supporting hundreds of millions livelihoods and most of the global capture fisheries production coming from the marine environment, sustainable management of fishing activity based on sound scientific data and reasonable predictions is one of the major issues we face these days. Literature review of the most recent publications on the state of global fisheries was conducted and ten main trends were identified, including expansion of fishing to new ecosystems and species, decline in landings, increase in fishing effort, growth of aquaculture and changes in the abundance and distribution of species. Issues with predicting the future were discussed, as well as usefulness of computer models and possible recovery of the ecosystem.

  17. Towards predictive cardiovascular safety : a systems pharmacology approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snelder, Nelleke

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular safety issues related to changes in blood pressure, arise frequently in drug development. In the thesis “Towards predictive cardiovascular safety – a systems pharmacology approach”, a system-specific model is described to quantify drug effects on the interrelationship between mean

  18. Safe Model Predictive Control Formulations Ensuring Process Operational Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Albalawi, Fahad Ali

    2017-01-01

    Model predictive control (MPC) is an advanced control strategy widely used in the process industries and beyond. Therefore, industry is interested in the development of MPC formulations that can enhance safety, reliability, and economic profitability of chemical processes. Motivated by these considerations, this dissertation focuses on the development of methods for integrating process operational safety and process economics within model predictive control system designs. To accomplish these...

  19. Trends in technology, trade and consumption likely to impact on microbial food safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quested, T E; Cook, P E; Gorris, L G M; Cole, M B

    2010-05-30

    Current and potential future trends in technology, consumption and trade of food that may impact on food-borne disease are analysed and the key driving factors identified focusing on the European Union and, to a lesser extent, accounting for the United States and global issues. Understanding of factors is developed using system-based methods and their impact is discussed in relation to current events and predictions of future trends. These factors come from a wide range of spheres relevant to food and include political, economic, social, technological, regulatory and environmental drivers. The degree of certainty in assessing the impact of important driving factors is considered in relation to food-borne disease. The most important factors driving an increase in the burden of food-borne disease in the next few decades were found to be the anticipated doubling of the global demand for food and of the international trade in food next to a significantly increased consumption of certain high-value food commodities such as meat and poultry and fresh produce. A less important factor potentially increasing the food-borne disease burden would be the increased demand for convenience foods. Factors that may contribute to a reduction in the food-borne disease burden were identified as the ability of governments around the world to take effective regulatory measures as well as the development and use of new food safety technologies and detection methods. The most important factor in reducing the burden of food-borne disease was identified as our ability to first detect and investigate a food safety issue and then to develop effective control measures. Given the global scale of impact on food safety that current and potentially future trends have, either by potentially increasing or decreasing the food-borne disease burden, it is concluded that a key role is fulfilled by intergovernmental organisations and by international standard setting bodies in coordinating the

  20. Trends in HFE Methods and Tools and Their Applicability to Safety Reviews

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Hara, J.M.; Plott, C.; Milanski, J.; Ronan, A.; Scheff, S.; Laux, L.; and Bzostek, J.

    2009-09-30

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) conducts human factors engineering (HFE) safety reviews of applicant submittals for new plants and for changes to existing plants. The reviews include the evaluation of the methods and tools (M&T) used by applicants as part of their HFE program. The technology used to perform HFE activities has been rapidly evolving, resulting in a whole new generation of HFE M&Ts. The objectives of this research were to identify the current trends in HFE methods and tools, determine their applicability to NRC safety reviews, and identify topics for which the NRC may need additional guidance to support the NRC's safety reviews. We conducted a survey that identified over 100 new HFE M&Ts. The M&Ts were assessed to identify general trends. Seven trends were identified: Computer Applications for Performing Traditional Analyses, Computer-Aided Design, Integration of HFE Methods and Tools, Rapid Development Engineering, Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. We assessed each trend to determine its applicability to the NRC's review by considering (1) whether the nuclear industry is making use of M&Ts for each trend, and (2) whether M&Ts reflecting the trend can be reviewed using the current design review guidance. We concluded that M&T trends that are applicable to the commercial nuclear industry and are expected to impact safety reviews may be considered for review guidance development. Three trends fell into this category: Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. The other trends do not need to be addressed at this time.

  1. Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Eric C. J.; Lago, Véronique; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Ling, Scott D.; Mundy, Craig N.

    2018-02-01

    Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures - marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania's east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania's eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993-2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data.

  2. ISSUES AND RECENT TRENDS IN VEHICLE SAFETY COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadayuki TSUGAWA

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper surveys the research on the applications of inter-vehicle communications, the issues of the deployment and technology, and the current status of inter-vehicle communications projects in Europe, the United States and Japan. The inter-vehicle communications, defined here as communications between on-board ITS computers, improve road traffic safety and efficiency by expanding the horizon of the drivers and on-board sensors. One of the earliest studies on inter-vehicle communications began in Japan in the early 1980s. The inter-vehicle communications play an essential role in automated platooning and cooperative driving systems developed since the 1990's by enabling vehicles to obtain data that would be difficult or impossible to measure with on-board sensors. During these years, interest in applications for inter-vehicle communications increased in the EU, the US and Japan, resulting in many national vehicle safety communications projects such as CarTALK2000 in the EU and VSCC in the US. The technological issues include protocol and communications media. Experiments employ various kinds of protocols and typically use infrared, microwave or millimeter wave media. The situation is ready for standardization. The deployment strategy is another issue. To be feasible, deployment should begin with multiple rather than single services that would work even at a low penetration rate of the communication equipment. In addition, non-technological, legal and institutional issues remained unsolved. Although inter-vehicle communications involve many issues, such applications should be promoted because they will lead to safer and more efficient automobile traffic.

  3. Predicting Nurses' Psychological Safety Based on the Forgiveness Skill

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmati, Abbas; Poormirzaei, Maryam

    2018-01-01

    Background: Forgiveness, as an intentional denial of your right of anger and aversion from a harmful deed, is related to many psychological processes of human which results in more psychological safety for people. The present study aimed to predict the psychological safety of nurses through different dimensions of forgiveness skill. Materials and Methods: This correlational study was conducted on 170 nurses working in Kerman hospitals during 2016–2017 who were selected based on convenience ra...

  4. Predicting Nurses' Psychological Safety Based on the Forgiveness Skill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmati, Abbas; Poormirzaei, Maryam

    2018-01-01

    Forgiveness, as an intentional denial of your right of anger and aversion from a harmful deed, is related to many psychological processes of human which results in more psychological safety for people. The present study aimed to predict the psychological safety of nurses through different dimensions of forgiveness skill. This correlational study was conducted on 170 nurses working in Kerman hospitals during 2016-2017 who were selected based on convenience random sampling. Edmondson psychological safety and Thompson Heartland forgiveness scale were used for data collection. Data were analyzed through Pearson correlation coefficient and multiple regression model. TThe results indicated that psychological safety has a significant relationship with self-forgiveness ( p = 0.0001) and other-forgiveness ( p = 0.04). Further, only self-forgiveness could significantly predict 0.07 of psychological safety variance ( p = 0.003). Self-forgiveness skill can improve the nurses' psychological safety and reduce the harms caused by job pressures by reinforcing positive psychological factors. It is recommended to teach forgiveness skill through holding in-service classes to staff and study the relationship between psychological safety with other social life skills among nurses.

  5. Risk-Based Predictive Maintenance for Safety-Critical Systems by Using Probabilistic Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based maintenance (RBM aims to improve maintenance planning and decision making by reducing the probability and consequences of failure of equipment. A new predictive maintenance strategy that integrates dynamic evolution model and risk assessment is proposed which can be used to calculate the optimal maintenance time with minimal cost and safety constraints. The dynamic evolution model provides qualified risks by using probabilistic inference with bucket elimination and gives the prospective degradation trend of a complex system. Based on the degradation trend, an optimal maintenance time can be determined by minimizing the expected maintenance cost per time unit. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated and demonstrated by a collision accident of high-speed trains with obstacles in the presence of safety and cost constrains.

  6. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  7. The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

    2014-02-01

    To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

  8. Radiology Research in Quality and Safety: Current Trends and Future Needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zygmont, Matthew E; Itri, Jason N; Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Duong, Phuong-Anh T; Mankowski Gettle, Lori; Mendiratta-Lala, Mishal; Scali, Elena P; Winokur, Ronald S; Probyn, Linda; Kung, Justin W; Bakow, Eric; Kadom, Nadja

    2017-03-01

    Promoting quality and safety research is now essential for radiology as reimbursement is increasingly tied to measures of quality, patient safety, efficiency, and appropriateness of imaging. This article provides an overview of key features necessary to promote successful quality improvement efforts in radiology. Emphasis is given to current trends and future opportunities for directing research. Establishing and maintaining a culture of safety is paramount to organizations wishing to improve patient care. The correct culture must be in place to support quality initiatives and create accountability for patient care. Focused educational curricula are necessary to teach quality and safety-related skills and behaviors to trainees, staff members, and physicians. The increasingly complex healthcare landscape requires that organizations build effective data infrastructures to support quality and safety research. Incident reporting systems designed specifically for medical imaging will benefit quality improvement initiatives by identifying and learning from system errors, enhancing knowledge about safety, and creating safer systems through the implementation of standardized practices and standards. Finally, validated performance measures must be developed to accurately reflect the value of the care we provide for our patients and referring providers. Common metrics used in radiology are reviewed with focus on current and future opportunities for investigation. Copyright © 2017 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Pressure prediction and hydraulic continuity - Regional trends and local anomalies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, J.M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper discusses the influence of hydraulic continuity of reservoirs and faults and the lack thereof on the occurrence of local pore fluid pressure conditions deviating from previously established regional trends. The hydrodynamic-based approaches will be illustrated with case studies from the

  10. Safety-Critical Java on a Time-predictable Processor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsholm, Stephan Erbs; Schoeberl, Martin; Puffitsch, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    ; (2) a C compiler for Patmos with support for WCET analysis; (3) the HVM, which is a Java-to-C compiler; (4) the HVM-SCJ implementation which supports SCJ Level 0, 1, and 2 (for both single and multicore platforms); and (5) a WCET analysis tool. We show that real-time Java programs translated to C...... and compiled to a Patmos binary can be analyzed by the AbsInt aiT WCET analysis tool. To the best of our knowledge the presented system is the second WCET analyzable real-time Java system; and the first one on top of a RISC processor.......For real-time systems the whole execution stack needs to be time-predictable and analyzable for the worst-case execution time (WCET). This paper presents a time-predictable platform for safety-critical Java. The platform consists of (1) the Patmos processor, which is a time-predictable processor...

  11. Safety-critical Java on a time-predictable processor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsholm, Stephan E.; Schoeberl, Martin; Puffitsch, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    ; (2) a C compiler for Patmos with support for WCET analysis; (3) the HVM, which is a Java-to-C compiler; (4) the HVM-SCJ implementation which supports SCJ Level 0, 1, and 2 (for both single and multicore platforms); and (5) a WCET analysis tool. We show that real-time Java programs translated to C...... and compiled to a Patmos binary can be analyzed by the AbsInt aiT WCET analysis tool. To the best of our knowledge the presented system is the second WCET analyzable real-time Java system; and the first one on top of a RISC processor.......For real-time systems the whole execution stack needs to be time-predictable and analyzable for the worst-case execution time (WCET). This paper presents a time-predictable platform for safety-critical Java. The platform consists of (1) the Patmos processor, which is a time-predictable processor...

  12. AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

  13. Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Evans, Joni K.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2014-01-01

    Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

  14. Predicting Currency Pair Trends using the Fractal Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Blackledge, Jonathan; Murphy, Kieran

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports on the results of a research and development pro- gramme concerned with the analysis of currency pair exchange time series for Forex trading in an intensive applications and services environment. In particular, we present some of the preliminary results obtained for Forex trading using MetaTrader 4 with a new set of trend indicators deigned using a mathematical model that is based on the Fractal Market Hypothesis. This includes examples of various currency pair exchange rat...

  15. Predicting soil acidification trends at Plynlimon using the SAFE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, B.

    The SAFE model has been applied to an acid grassland site, located on base-poor stagnopodzol soils derived from Lower Palaeozoic greywackes. The model predicts that acidification of the soil has occurred in response to increased acid deposition following the industrial revolution. Limited recovery is predicted following the decline in sulphur deposition during the mid to late 1970s. Reducing excess sulphur and NOx deposition in 1998 to 40% and 70% of 1980 levels results in further recovery but soil chemical conditions (base saturation, soil water pH and ANC) do not return to values predicted in pre-industrial times. The SAFE model predicts that critical loads (expressed in terms of the (Ca+Mg+K):Alcrit ratio) for six vegetation species found in acid grassland communities are not exceeded despite the increase in deposited acidity following the industrial revolution. The relative growth response of selected vegetation species characteristic of acid grassland swards has been predicted using a damage function linking growth to soil solution base cation to aluminium ratio. The results show that very small growth reductions can be expected for "acid tolerant" plants growing in acid upland soils. For more sensitive species such as Holcus lanatus, SAFE predicts that growth would have been reduced by about 20% between 1951 and 1983, when acid inputs were greatest. Recovery to c. 90% of normal growth (under laboratory conditions) is predicted as acidic inputs decline.

  16. PREDICTABLE TRENDS OF EU TARIFF POLICY IN GLOBALIZATION'S CONTEXT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caba Stefan

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper consists of information regarding current situation of international trade relations, in particular those pertaining to EU, concerning to preferential trade agreements, the trend towards globalization and custom policies. The importance of this document is given by the identification of strategy trends in respect to EU tariff policy in the context of changes at commercial exchange level, as a consequence of international trade globalization's trend. The tariff policy, as a component of the trade one, represents a factor which influences companies behavior and, consequently the structure of import-export interstates relations. Specialty literature has lately identified a less natural phenomenon: starting with adoption by WTO states members of some measures and principles that emphasize the trade globalization tendency, a significant number of preferential agreements were settled in the meanwhile, many of them being bilateral, fact at least at first view is opposite to globalization phenomenon. The causes of this phenomenon have not been yet completely identified by economic analysts, so that these preferential trade agreements can be translated as a an impediment in the way of globalization and, on the contrary an intermediate phase and an accelerator of global extension trade exchange phenomenon. The present work ideas are based on analysis by bibliographic guide that link to historical GATT/WTO and principles which sustain its operation and to dynamic of international trade. Also, there have been studied data related to strategies of trade policy adopted by EU. The results consist of information about tariff policy elements adopted or forecasted by EU in general strategic context of participation to international trade. Particularly, it is emphasized the new competencies that must be achieved by custom personnel because of changes in trade exchanges. The main idea is represented by the necessity of custom authorities responsibility

  17. Trend modelling of wave parameters and application in onboard prediction of ship responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Montazeri, Najmeh; Nielsen, Ulrik Dam; Jensen, J. Juncher

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a trend analysis for prediction of sea state parameters onboard shipsduring voyages. Given those parameters, a JONSWAP model and also the transfer functions, prediction of wave induced ship responses are thus made. The procedure is tested with full-scale data of an in-service ......This paper presents a trend analysis for prediction of sea state parameters onboard shipsduring voyages. Given those parameters, a JONSWAP model and also the transfer functions, prediction of wave induced ship responses are thus made. The procedure is tested with full-scale data of an in...

  18. Trends in Health Information Technology Safety: From Technology-Induced Errors to Current Approaches for Ensuring Technology Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Health information technology (HIT) research findings suggested that new healthcare technologies could reduce some types of medical errors while at the same time introducing classes of medical errors (i.e., technology-induced errors). Technology-induced errors have their origins in HIT, and/or HIT contribute to their occurrence. The objective of this paper is to review current trends in the published literature on HIT safety. Methods A review and synthesis of the medical and life sciences literature focusing on the area of technology-induced error was conducted. Results There were four main trends in the literature on technology-induced error. The following areas were addressed in the literature: definitions of technology-induced errors; models, frameworks and evidence for understanding how technology-induced errors occur; a discussion of monitoring; and methods for preventing and learning about technology-induced errors. Conclusions The literature focusing on technology-induced errors continues to grow. Research has focused on the defining what an error is, models and frameworks used to understand these new types of errors, monitoring of such errors and methods that can be used to prevent these errors. More research will be needed to better understand and mitigate these types of errors. PMID:23882411

  19. Trends in predicted chemoselectivity of cytochrome P450 oxidation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rydberg, Patrik; Lonsdale, Richard; Harvey, Jeremy N

    2014-01-01

    Prediction of epoxide formation in drug metabolism is a difficult but important task, as epoxide formation is linked to drug toxicity. A comparison of the energy barriers for cytochrome P450 mediated epoxidation of alkenes to the barriers for the hydroxylation of an aliphatic carbon atom next...

  20. Breast Cancer Trend in Iran from 2000 to 2009 and Prediction till 2020 using a Trend Analysis Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Bibihajar; Keramat, Afsaneh; Alavi, Nasrinossadat; Khosravi, Ahmad; Kousha, Ahmad; Motlagh, Ali Ghanbari; Darman, Mahboobeh; Partovipour, Elham; Chaman, Reza

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide with a rising incidence rate in most countries. Considering the increase in life expectancy and change in lifestyle of Iranian women, this study investigated the age-adjusted trend of breast cancer incidence during 2000-2009 and predicted its incidence to 2020. The 1997 and 2006 census results were used for the projection of female population by age through the cohort-component method over the studied years. Data from the Iranian cancer registration system were used to calculate the annual incidence rate of breast cancer. The age-adjusted incidence rate was then calculated using the WHO standard population distribution. The five-year-age-specific incidence rates were also obtained for each year and future incidence was determined using the trend analysis method. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated through the joinpoint regression method. The bias adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer increased from 16.7 per 100,000 women in 2000 to 33.6 per 100,000 women in 2009. The incidence of breast cancer had a growing trend in almost all age groups above 30 years over the studied years. In this period, the age groups of 45-65 years had the highest incidence. Investigation into the joinpoint curve showed that the curve had a steep slope with an APC of 23.4% before the first joinpoint, but became milder after this. From 2005 to 2009, the APC was calculated as 2.7%, through which the incidence of breast cancer in 2020 was predicted as 63.0 per 100,000 women. The age-adjusted incidence rate of breast cancer continues to increas in Iranian women. It is predicted that this trend will continue until 2020. Therefore, it seems necessary to prioritize the prevention, control and care for breast cancer in Iran.

  1. Analysing Twitter and web queries for flu trend prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, José Carlos; Matos, Sérgio

    2014-05-07

    Social media platforms encourage people to share diverse aspects of their daily life. Among these, shared health related information might be used to infer health status and incidence rates for specific conditions or symptoms. In this work, we present an infodemiology study that evaluates the use of Twitter messages and search engine query logs to estimate and predict the incidence rate of influenza like illness in Portugal. Based on a manually classified dataset of 2704 tweets from Portugal, we selected a set of 650 textual features to train a Naïve Bayes classifier to identify tweets mentioning flu or flu-like illness or symptoms. We obtained a precision of 0.78 and an F-measure of 0.83, based on cross validation over the complete annotated set. Furthermore, we trained a multiple linear regression model to estimate the health-monitoring data from the Influenzanet project, using as predictors the relative frequencies obtained from the tweet classification results and from query logs, and achieved a correlation ratio of 0.89 (p<0.001). These classification and regression models were also applied to estimate the flu incidence in the following flu season, achieving a correlation of 0.72. Previous studies addressing the estimation of disease incidence based on user-generated content have mostly focused on the english language. Our results further validate those studies and show that by changing the initial steps of data preprocessing and feature extraction and selection, the proposed approaches can be adapted to other languages. Additionally, we investigated whether the predictive model created can be applied to data from the subsequent flu season. In this case, although the prediction result was good, an initial phase to adapt the regression model could be necessary to achieve more robust results.

  2. State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Using daily temperature to predict phenology trends in spring flowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin-Hee; Kim, Soo-Ock; Kim, Dae-Jun; Moon, Kyung Hwan; Yun, Jin I.

    2015-05-01

    temperature rise in early spring immediately after dormancy release, likely brought forward the flowering date of cherry blossom. We derived a thermal time-based flowering model from this analysis and used it to predict the flowering dates of forsythia and cherry blossom in 2014. The root mean square error for the prediction was within 2 days from the observed flowering dates in both species, showing a feasibility of prediction under the changing climate.

  4. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  5. Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemri, Stephan; Scheuerer, Michael; Pappenberger, Florian; Bogner, Konrad; Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Over the last two decades the paradigm in weather forecasting has shifted from being deterministic to probabilistic. Accordingly, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems. The goal of such ensemble forecasts is to approximate the forecast probability distribution by a finite sample of scenarios. Global ensemble forecast systems, like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, are prone to probabilistic biases, and are therefore not reliable. They particularly tend to be underdispersive for surface weather parameters. Hence, statistical post-processing is required in order to obtain reliable and sharp forecasts. In this study we apply statistical post-processing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24-hour precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global ECMWF model. Our main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the post-processed forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble is under continuous development, and hence its forecast skill improves over time. Parts of these improvements may be due to a reduction of probabilistic bias. Thus, we first hypothesize that the gain by post-processing decreases over time. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations we generate post-processed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Parameter estimates are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over rolling training periods that consist of the n days preceding the initialization dates. Given the higher average skill in terms of CRPS of the post-processed forecasts for all three variables, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS forecasts. The fact that the gap in skill remains almost constant over time, especially for near

  6. Bias of genetic trend of genomic predictions based on both real dairy cattle and simulated data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Peipei; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Nielsen, Ulrik Sander

    This study investigated the phenomenon of bias in the trend of genomic predictions and attempted to find the reason and solution for this bias. The data used in this study include Danish Jersey data and simulation data. In Jersey data, the bias was reduced when cows were included in the reference...... population. In simulated data, there was no bias when the test animals were unselected cows. When the G matrix was derived from genotypes of causal genes, the bias was reduced. The results suggest that the main reasons for causing the bias of the prediction trends are the selection of bulls and bull dams...

  7. Mortality Trends After a Voluntary Checklist-based Surgical Safety Collaborative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Alex B; Edmondson, Lizabeth; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Molina, George; Neville, Bridget A; Singer, Sara J; Moonan, Aunyika T; Childers, Ashley Kay; Foster, Richard; Gibbons, Lorri R; Gawande, Atul A; Berry, William R

    2017-12-01

    To determine whether completion of a voluntary, checklist-based surgical quality improvement program is associated with reduced 30-day postoperative mortality. Despite evidence of efficacy of team-based surgical safety checklists in improving perioperative outcomes in research trials, effective methods of population-based implementation have been lacking. The Safe Surgery 2015 South Carolina program was designed to foster state-wide engagement of hospitals in a voluntary, collaborative implementation of a checklist program. We compared postoperative mortality rates after inpatient surgery in South Carolina utilizing state-wide all-payer discharge claims from 2008 to 2013, linked with state vital statistics, stratifying hospitals on the basis of completion of the checklist program. Changes in risk-adjusted 30-day mortality were compared between hospitals, using propensity score-adjusted difference-in-differences analysis. Fourteen hospitals completed the program by December 2013. Before program launch, there was no difference in mortality trends between the completion cohort and all others (P = 0.33), but postoperative mortality diverged thereafter (P = 0.021). Risk-adjusted 30-day mortality among completers was 3.38% in 2010 and 2.84% in 2013 (P checklist-based surgical quality improvement program had a reduction in deaths after inpatient surgery over the first 3 years of the collaborative compared with other hospitals in the state. This may indicate that effective large-scale implementation of a team-based surgical safety checklist is feasible.

  8. Bias of genetic trend of genomic predictions based on both real dairy cattle and simulated data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Peipei; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Nielsen, Ulrik Sander

    population. In simulated data, there was no bias when the test animals were unselected cows. When the G matrix was derived from genotypes of causal genes, the bias was reduced. The results suggest that the main reasons for causing the bias of the prediction trends are the selection of bulls and bull dams...

  9. Development and evaluation of multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends in multiple domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, T.; Maanen, P.P. van; Meeuwissen, E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper concerns multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends. We use a step-wise approach to develop a novel agent-based model with the following properties: (1) it uses individual behavior parameters for a set of Twitter users and (2) it uses a retweet graph to model the underlying social

  10. COMPARISON OF TREND PROJECTION METHODS AND BACKPROPAGATION PROJECTIONS METHODS TREND IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS DIED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN TIMOR TENGAH REGENCY, NUSA TENGGARA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksius Madu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to predict the number of traffic accident victims who died in Timor Tengah Regency with Trend Projection method and Backpropagation method, and compare the two methods based on the degree of guilt and predict the number traffic accident victims in the Timor Tengah Regency for the coming year. This research was conducted in Timor Tengah Regency where data used in this study was obtained from Police Unit in Timor Tengah Regency. The data is on the number of traffic accidents in Timor Tengah Regency from 2000 – 2013, which is obtained by a quantitative analysis with Trend Projection and Backpropagation method. The results of the data analysis predicting the number of traffic accidents victims using Trend Projection method obtained the best model which is the quadratic trend model with equation Yk = 39.786 + (3.297 X + (0.13 X2. Whereas by using back propagation method, it is obtained the optimum network that consists of 2 inputs, 3 hidden screens, and 1 output. Based on the error rates obtained, Back propagation method is better than the Trend Projection method which means that the predicting accuracy with Back propagation method is the best method to predict the number of traffic accidents victims in Timor Tengah Regency. Thus obtained predicting the numbers of traffic accident victims for the next 5 years (Years 2014-2018 respectively - are 106 person, 115 person, 115 person, 119 person and 120 person.   Keywords: Trend Projection, Back propagation, Predicting.

  11. mathematical models for prediction of safety factors for a simply ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    The reliability-based calibration of safety factors for the design of a simply supported steel beam, based on BS5950. (2000) is presented in this research work. The calibration was undertaken using a specialized computer program in. Microsoft excel environment developed by the Joint Committee for Structural Safety (JCSS) ...

  12. Mathematical models for prediction of safety factors for a simply ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The calibration was undertaken using a specialized computer program in Microsoft excel environment developed by the Joint Committee for Structural Safety (JCSS) CODE-CAL 2001. The design variables considered were modeled using the software, and the safety factors for the material, dead and live load were ...

  13. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montri Inthachot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

  14. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inthachot, Montri; Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

  15. Prediction of time trends in recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Kay; Ingebrigtsen, Tor; Wilsgaard, Tom

    2009-01-01

    . There was significant improvement of performance after 6 months. APOE-epsilon4 genotype was the only independent factor significantly predicting less improvement. CONCLUSION: The presence of the APOE-epsilon4 allele predicts less recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury.......OBJECTIVE: To investigate relations between predictors and outcomes, and especially to identify predictors influencing the time trend in recovery after mild traumatic brain injury. METHODS: We included 59 patients with mild head injury in a prospective study. They underwent comprehensive assessment...

  16. Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

    2016-11-22

    Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

  17. Emotional Exhaustion and Workload Predict Clinician-Rated and Objective Patient Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalena eWelp

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. (Multilevel regression analysis was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety were associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios.Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables or and support the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety.

  18. Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

    2015-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

  19. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

    2017-01-01

    The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  20. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujin Pyo

    Full Text Available The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200 prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  1. Development of safety and reliability prediction methodology for aircraft systems with common-cause failures

    OpenAIRE

    Nam, G. W.

    1996-01-01

    A methodology has been developed for predicting aircraft safety and reliability incorporating both C.C.F.s(Common-Cause Failures), and phased missions. Failure behaviour of an aircraft, or its systems due to both independent failures and C.C.F.s are modelled by the Markov process, and simulated using Monte Carlo method with the robust variance reduction techniques. Prediction of safety and reliability is made through discrete-event simulation of aircraft operations. Validati...

  2. Cognitive functioning differentially predicts different dimensions of older drivers' on-road safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksan, Nazan; Anderson, Steve W; Dawson, Jeffrey; Uc, Ergun; Rizzo, Matthew

    2015-02-01

    The extent to which deficits in specific cognitive domains contribute to older drivers' safety risk in complex real-world driving tasks is not well understood. We selected 148 drivers older than 70 years of age both with and without neurodegenerative diseases (Alzheimer disease-AD and Parkinson disease-PD) from an existing driving database of older adults. Participant assessments included on-road driving safety and cognitive functioning in visuospatial construction, speed of processing, memory, and executive functioning. The standardized on-road drive test was designed to examine multiple facets of older driver safety including navigation performance (e.g., following a route, identifying landmarks), safety errors while concurrently performing secondary navigation tasks ("on-task" safety errors), and safety errors in the absence of any secondary navigation tasks ("baseline" safety errors). The inter-correlations of these outcome measures were fair to moderate supporting their distinctiveness. Participants with diseases performed worse than the healthy aging group on all driving measures and differences between those with AD and PD were minimal. In multivariate analyses, different domains of cognitive functioning predicted distinct facets of driver safety on road. Memory and set-shifting predicted performance in navigation-related secondary tasks, speed of processing predicted on-task safety errors, and visuospatial construction predicted baseline safety errors. These findings support broad assessments of cognitive functioning to inform decisions regarding older driver safety on the road and suggest navigation performance may be useful in evaluating older driver fitness and restrictions in licensing. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

    2017-08-01

    In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

  4. Amphibian breeding phenology trends under climate change: predicting the past to forecast the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, David M

    2017-02-01

    Global climate warming is predicted to hasten the onset of spring breeding by anuran amphibians in seasonal environments. Previous data had indicated that the breeding phenology of a population of Fowler's Toads (Anaxyrus fowleri) at their northern range limit had been progressively later in spring, contrary to generally observed trends in other species. Although these animals are known to respond to environmental temperature and the lunar cycle to commence breeding, the timing of breeding should also be influenced by the onset of overwintering animals' prior upward movement through the soil column from beneath the frost line as winter becomes spring. I used recorded weather data to identify four factors of temperature, rainfall and snowfall in late winter and early spring that correlated with the toads' eventual date of emergence aboveground. Estimated dates of spring emergence of the toads calculated using a predictive model based on these factors, as well as the illumination of the moon, were highly correlated with observed dates of emergence over 24 consecutive years. Using the model to estimate of past dates of spring breeding (i.e. retrodiction) indicated that even three decades of data were insufficient to discern any appreciable phenological trend in these toads. However, by employing weather data dating back to 1876, I detected a significant trend over 140 years towards earlier spring emergence by the toads by less than half a day/decade, while, over the same period of time, average annual air temperature and annual precipitation had both increased. Changes in the springtime breeding phenology for late-breeding species, such as Fowler's Toads, therefore may conform to expectations of earlier breeding under global warming. Improved understanding of the environmental cues that bring organisms out of winter dormancy will enable better interpretation of long-term phenological trends. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Innovative sub sea pipeline maintenance in line with emerging offshore trends and maintenance safety standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, George [T.D. Williamson, Inc., Tulsa, OK (United States)

    2012-07-01

    attached to the Sub sea 1200RC machine and operated from an on-board laptop. This results in a lightweight hot tap frame and total direct control of the cutting process. The machine has been designed, built, tested and successfully deployed on a recent sub sea tap for a pipeline operator in Asia. This technology promotes the 'separation of man and machine' proposition. It reduces risk by reducing diver exposure, enhances safety, provides direct control and visibility from a laptop and facilitates fast and accurate execution. Ultimately, the concept may be extended toward onshore hot tap applications in risky environments calling for remotely operated systems. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a major new contribution in terms of knowledge and expertise to the offshore pipeline maintenance environment. It will detail the process and procedures, as well as delve into a customer application and the results. Part of the details will include areas of testing of the equipment, conditions in which it is designed to perform and how the needs of the pipeline operators were incorporated into the execution of the project. The results of the operation are meant to demonstrate how technology is progressing in line with emerging offshore trends, especially offshore exploration in Brazil. (author)

  6. A child's view: social and physical environmental features differentially predict parent and child perceived neighborhood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Côté-Lussier, Carolyn; Jackson, Jonathan; Kestens, Yan; Henderson, Melanie; Barnett, Tracie A

    2015-02-01

    Parent and child perceived neighborhood safety predicts child health outcomes such as sleep quality, asthma, physical activity, and psychological distress. Although previous studies identify environmental predictors of parent perceived safety, little is known about predictors of child perceived safety. This study aims to identify the social and physical environmental neighborhood features that predict child and parent perceived neighborhood safety and, simultaneously, to assess the association between child and parent perceptions. Data were from the QUebec Adipose and Lifestyle InvesTigation in Youth (QUALITY) cohort, an ongoing study of Caucasian children (aged 8-10 years) with a parental history of obesity, and their biological parents from Québec, Canada. Measures of social and physical neighborhood features were collected using a spatial data infrastructure and in-person audits. Structural equation modeling was used to test direct and indirect associations between neighborhood features, child and parent perceived safety. Results suggest that among children (N = 494), trees and lighting were positively associated with perceived neighborhood safety, whereas a high proportion of visible minorities was associated with poorer perceived safety. Parents' perceptions of safety were more strongly tied to indicators of disorder and a lack of community involvement, and to traffic. Child perceived safety was partly explained by parent perceived safety, suggesting moderate concordance between perceptions. Although associated with each other, parent and child perceived safety seemed to be determined by distinct environmental features. Though this study focused on determinants of child and parent perceived safety, future research investigating the impact of neighborhood safety on child health should consider both child and parent perspectives.

  7. A Predictive Safety Management System Software Package Based on the Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quintana, Rolando

    2003-01-01

    The goal of this research was to integrate a previously validated and reliable safety model, called Continuous Hazard Tracking and Failure Prediction Methodology (CHTFPM), into a software application. This led to the development of a safety management information system (PSMIS). This means that the theory or principles of the CHTFPM were incorporated in a software package; hence, the PSMIS is referred to as CHTFPM management information system (CHTFPM MIS). The purpose of the PSMIS is to reduce the time and manpower required to perform predictive studies as well as to facilitate the handling of enormous quantities of information in this type of studies. The CHTFPM theory encompasses the philosophy of looking at the concept of safety engineering from a new perspective: from a proactive, than a reactive, viewpoint. That is, corrective measures are taken before a problem instead of after it happened. That is why the CHTFPM is a predictive safety because it foresees or anticipates accidents, system failures and unacceptable risks; therefore, corrective action can be taken in order to prevent all these unwanted issues. Consequently, safety and reliability of systems or processes can be further improved by taking proactive and timely corrective actions.

  8. A decision support system for the prediction of microbial food safety and food quality.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijtzes, T.; Riet, van 't K.; Huis in 't Veld, J.H.J.; Zwietering, M.H.

    1998-01-01

    The development of a method to predict microbial food safety and quality is described. The manufacture of a food from its ingredients is simulated, using a recipe. Food engineering heuristics are combined with models developed in predictive microbiology. Parameter values of ingredients of foods,

  9. Does safety climate predict safety performance in Italy and the USA? Cross-cultural validation of a theoretical model of safety climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbaranelli, Claudio; Petitta, Laura; Probst, Tahira M

    2015-04-01

    Previous studies have acknowledged the relevance of assessing the measurement equivalence of safety related measures across different groups, and demonstrating whether the existence of disparities in safety perceptions might impair direct group comparisons. The Griffin and Neal (2000) model of safety climate, and the accompanying measure (Neal et al. [NGH], 2000), are both widely cited and utilized. Yet neither the model in its entirety nor the measure have been previously validated across different national contexts. The current study is the first to examine the NGH measurement equivalence by testing whether their model of safety climate predicting safety performance is tenable in both English speaking and non-English speaking countries. The study involved 616 employees from 21 organizations in the US, and 738 employees from 20 organizations in Italy. A multi-group confirmatory factor analytic approach was used to assess the equivalence of the measures across the two countries. Similarly, the structural model of relations among the NGH variables was examined in order to demonstrate its cross-country invariance. Results substantially support strict invariance across groups for the NGH safety scales. Moreover, the invariance across countries is also demonstrated for the effects of safety climate on safety knowledge and motivation, which in turn positively relate to both compliance and participation. Our findings have relevant theoretical implications by establishing measurement and relational equivalence of the NGH model. Practical implications are discussed for managers and practitioners dealing with multi-national organizational contexts. Future research should continue to investigate potential differences in safety related perceptions across additional non-English speaking countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Research of combination model for prediction of the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin-ping CHEN

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective To establish a combination model of autoregressive integrated moving average model and the grey dynamics (ARIMA-GM of hepatitis B incidence rate (1/100 000 to predict the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B, as to provide a scientific basis for the early discovery of the infectious diseases for the performance of countermeasures of controlling its spread. Methods The monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Qian'an city, Hebei province, was collected from Jan 2004 to Dec 2012, and a model (ARIMA was reproduced with SPSS software. The GM (1,1 model was used to correct the residual sequence with a threshold value, and a combined forecasting model was reproduced. This combination model was used to predict the monthly incidence rate in this city in 2013. Results The model ARIMA(0,1,1(0,1,112 was established successfully and the residual sequence was a white noise sequence. Then the GM (1,1 model with a threshold of 3 was used to correct its residuals and obtain its nonlinear feature extraction of information. The forecasting model met required precision standards (C=0.673, P=0.877, the fitting accuracy of which was basically qualified. The results showed that the MAE, MAPE of the ARIMA-GM combined model were smaller than that of a single model, and the combined model could improve the prediction accuracy. Using the combined model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis B during Jan 2013 to Dec 2013, the overall trend was relatively consistent with the condition of previous years. Conclusion The ARIMA-GM combined model can better fit the incidence rate of hepatitis B with a greater accuracy than the seasonal ARIMA model. The prediction results can provide the reference for the early warning system of HBV. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2014.01.12

  11. Prediction equation for vehicle-pedestrian crash and safety analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On the assumption that negative binomial errors control over dispersion characteristic of the crash data, a Generalized Linear Model was applied to estimate parameters of the predicting equations. Accra accounted for more than 57.6 % of the pedestrian crashes with highest casualty rate of 34 injuries per annum (including ...

  12. Safety of Workers in Indian Mines: Study, Analysis, and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Verma

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion: Unsafe acts of the worker are the most critical human factors identified to be controlled on priority basis. A significant association of factors (namely age, experience of the worker, and shift of work with unsafe acts performed by the operator is identified based upon which the FRA-based accident prediction model is proposed.

  13. Predictive models of safety based on audit findings: Part 2: Measurement of model validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiao, Yu-Lin; Drury, Colin; Wu, Changxu; Paquet, Victor

    2013-07-01

    Part 1 of this study sequence developed a human factors/ergonomics (HF/E) based classification system (termed HFACS-MA) for safety audit findings and proved its measurement reliability. In Part 2, we used the human error categories of HFACS-MA as predictors of future safety performance. Audit records and monthly safety incident reports from two airlines submitted to their regulatory authority were available for analysis, covering over 6.5 years. Two participants derived consensus results of HF/E errors from the audit reports using HFACS-MA. We adopted Neural Network and Poisson regression methods to establish nonlinear and linear prediction models respectively. These models were tested for the validity of prediction of the safety data, and only Neural Network method resulted in substantially significant predictive ability for each airline. Alternative predictions from counting of audit findings and from time sequence of safety data produced some significant results, but of much smaller magnitude than HFACS-MA. The use of HF/E analysis of audit findings provided proactive predictors of future safety performance in the aviation maintenance field. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  14. An effective wavelet strategy for the trend prediction of physiological time series with application to pHealth systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, T; Paredes, S; de Carvalho, P; Henriques, J

    2013-01-01

    This work proposes a wavelet decomposition based scheme to estimate the evolution trend of physiological time series. The scheme does not involve the explicit development of a model and is essentially supported on the hypothesis that future evolution of a biosignal can be estimated from similar historic patterns. The strategy considers an a-trous wavelet decomposition, where the most representative trends are extracted from the historic similar patterns. Then, a set of distance-based measures able to assess the prediction likelihood of each representative trend, is introduced. From these measures and through an optimization process, a subset of these trends is selected and aggregated to derive the required time series evolution trend. The effectiveness of the methodology is validated in the prediction of blood pressure signals collected in two telemonitoring studies: TEN-HMS and MyHeart. Additionally, Friedman and Nemenyi statistics tests are implemented to rank several methods, confirming the value of the proposed strategy.

  15. Update from C3RS lessons learned team : safety culture and trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) believes that, in addition to process and technology innovations, human-factors-based solutions can significantly contribute to improving safety in the railroad industry. To test this assumption, FRA implemen...

  16. Estimating trends in quartz exposure in Swedish iron foundries--predicting past and present exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Lena; Burdorf, Alex; Bryngelsson, Ing-Liss; Westberg, Håkan

    2012-04-01

    Swedish foundries have a long tradition of legally required surveys in the workplace that, from the late 1960s onwards, included measurements of quartz. The availability of exposure data spanning almost 40 years presents a unique opportunity to study trends over that time and to evaluate the validity of exposure models based on data from shorter time spans. The aims of this study were (i) to investigate long-term trends in quartz exposure over time, (ii) using routinely collected quartz exposure measurements to develop a mathematical model that could predict both historical and current exposure patterns, and (iii) to validate this exposure model with up-to-date measurements from a targeted survey of the industry. Eleven foundries, representative of the Swedish iron foundry industry, were divided into three groups based on the size of the companies, i.e. the number of employees. A database containing 2333 quartz exposure measurements for 11 different job descriptions was used to create three models that covered time periods which reflected different work conditions and production processes: a historical model (1968-1989), a development model (1990-2004), and a validation model (2005-2006). A linear mixed model for repeated measurements was used to investigate trends over time. In all mixed models, time period, company size, and job title were included as fixed (categorical) determinants of exposure. The within- and between-worker variances were considered to be random effects. A linear regression analysis was performed to investigate agreement between the models. The average exposure was estimated for each combination of job title and company size. A large reduction in exposure (51%) was seen between 1968 and 1974 and between 1975 and 1979 (28%). In later periods, quartz exposure was reduced by 8% per 5 years at best. In the first period, employees at smaller companies experienced ~50% higher exposure levels than those at large companies, but these differences

  17. Prescribing of Rosiglitazone and Pioglitazone Following Safety Signals Analysis of Trends in Dispensing Patterns in the Netherlands from 1998 to 2008

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruiter, Rikje; Visser, Loes E.; van Herk-Sukel, Myrthe P. P.; Geelhoed-Duijvestijn, Petronella H.; de Bie, Sandra; Straus, Sabine M. J. M.; Mol, Peter G. M.; Romio, Silvana A.; Herings, Ron M. C.; Stricker, Bruno H. Ch.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Relevant safety signals in the EU are regularly communicated in so-called 'Direct Healthcare Professional Communications' (DHPCs) or European Medicines Agency (EMA) press releases. Trends of a decrease in the use of rosiglitazone following regulatory safety warnings have been described

  18. Improving patient safety culture in Saudi Arabia (2012-2015): trending, improvement and benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alswat, Khalid; Abdalla, Rawia Ahmad Mustafa; Titi, Maher Abdelraheim; Bakash, Maram; Mehmood, Faiza; Zubairi, Beena; Jamal, Diana; El-Jardali, Fadi

    2017-08-02

    Measuring patient safety culture can provide insight into areas for improvement and help monitor changes over time. This study details the findings of a re-assessment of patient safety culture in a multi-site Medical City in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Results were compared to an earlier assessment conducted in 2012 and benchmarked with regional and international studies. Such assessments can provide hospital leadership with insight on how their hospital is performing on patient safety culture composites as a result of quality improvement plans. This paper also explored the association between patient safety culture predictors and patient safety grade, perception of patient safety, frequency of events reported and number of events reported. We utilized a customized version of the patient safety culture survey developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The Medical City is a tertiary care teaching facility composed of two sites (total capacity of 904 beds). Data was analyzed using SPSS 24 at a significance level of 0.05. A t-Test was used to compare results from the 2012 survey to that conducted in 2015. Two adopted Generalized Estimating Equations in addition to two linear models were used to assess the association between composites and patient safety culture outcomes. Results were also benchmarked against similar initiatives in Lebanon, Palestine and USA. Areas of strength in 2015 included Teamwork within units, and Organizational Learning-Continuous Improvement; areas requiring improvement included Non-Punitive Response to Error, and Staffing. Comparing results to the 2012 survey revealed improvement on some areas but non-punitive response to error and Staffing remained the lowest scoring composites in 2015. Regression highlighted significant association between managerial support, organizational learning and feedback and improved survey outcomes. Comparison to international benchmarks revealed that the hospital is performing at or

  19. Advances in Predictive Toxicology for Discovery Safety through High Content Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Mikael; Hornberg, Jorrit J

    2016-12-19

    High content screening enables parallel acquisition of multiple molecular and cellular readouts. In particular the predictive toxicology field has progressed from the advances in high content screening, as more refined end points that report on cellular health can be studied in combination, at the single cell level, and in relatively high throughput. Here, we discuss how high content screening has become an essential tool for Discovery Safety, the discipline that integrates safety and toxicology in the drug discovery process to identify and mitigate safety concerns with the aim to design drug candidates with a superior safety profile. In addition to customized mechanistic assays to evaluate target safety, routine screening assays can be applied to identify risk factors for frequently occurring organ toxicities. We discuss the current state of high content screening assays for hepatotoxicity, cardiotoxicity, neurotoxicity, nephrotoxicity, and genotoxicity, including recent developments and current advances.

  20. Prevalence of current patterns and predictive trends of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Sudan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayman A. Elshayeb

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Enteric fever has persistence of great impact in Sudanese public health especially during rainy season when the causative agent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi possesses pan endemic patterns in most regions of Sudan - Khartoum. Objectives The present study aims to assess the recent state of antibiotics susceptibility of Salmonella Typhi with special concern to multidrug resistance strains and predict the emergence of new resistant patterns and outbreaks. Methods Salmonella Typhi strains were isolated and identified according to the guidelines of the International Standardization Organization and the World Health Organization. The antibiotics susceptibilities were tested using the recommendations of the Clinical Laboratories Standards Institute. Predictions of emerging resistant bacteria patterns and outbreaks in Sudan were done using logistic regression, forecasting linear equations and in silico simulations models. Results A total of 124 antibiotics resistant Salmonella Typhi strains categorized in 12 average groups were isolated, different patterns of resistance statistically calculated by (y = ax − b. Minimum bactericidal concentration’s predication of resistance was given the exponential trend (y = n ex and the predictive coefficient R2 > 0 < 1 are approximately alike. It was assumed that resistant bacteria occurred with a constant rate of antibiotic doses during the whole experimental period. Thus, the number of sensitive bacteria decreases at the same rate as resistant occur following term to the modified predictive model which solved computationally. Conclusion This study assesses the prediction of multi-drug resistance among S. Typhi isolates by applying low cost materials and simple statistical methods suitable for the most frequently used antibiotics as typhoid empirical therapy. Therefore, bacterial surveillance systems should be implemented to present data on the aetiology and current

  1. A Child’s View: Social and Physical Environmental Features Differentially Predict Parent and Child Perceived Neighborhood Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Côté-Lussier, Carolyn; Jackson, Jonathan; Kestens, Yan; Henderson, Melanie; Barnett, Tracie A.

    2014-01-01

    Parent and child perceived neighborhood safety predicts child health outcomes such as sleep quality, asthma, physical activity, and psychological distress. Although previous studies identify environmental predictors of parent perceived safety, little is known about predictors of child perceived safety. This study aims to identify the social and physical environmental neighborhood features that predict child and parent perceived neighborhood safety and, simultaneously, to assess the associatio...

  2. Trends in technology, trade and consumption likely to impact on microbial food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quested, T.E.; Cook, P.E.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Cole, M.B.

    2010-01-01

    Current and potential future trends in technology, consumption and trade of food that may impact on food-borne disease are analysed and the key driving factors identified focusing on the European Union and, to a lesser extent, accounting for the United States and global issues. Understanding of

  3. ADSA Foundation Scholar Award: Trends in culture-independent methods for assessing dairy food quality and safety: emerging metagenomic tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Marie

    2012-12-01

    Enhancing the quality and safety of dairy food is critical to maintaining the competitiveness of dairy products in the food and beverage market and in reinforcing consumer confidence in the dairy industry. Raw milk quality has a significant effect on finished product quality. Several microbial groups found in raw milk have been shown to adversely affect the shelf life of pasteurized milk. Current microbiological criteria used to define milk quality are based primarily on culture-dependent methods, some of which are perceived to lack the desired sensitivity and specificity. To supplement traditional methods, culture-independent methods are increasingly being used to identify specific species or microbial groups, and to detect indicator genes or proteins in raw milk or dairy products. Some molecular subtyping techniques have been developed to track the transmission of microbes in dairy environments. The burgeoning "-omics" technologies offer new and exciting opportunities to enhance our understanding of food quality and safety in relation to microbes. Metagenomics has the potential to characterize microbial diversity, detect nonculturable microbes, and identify unique sequences or other factors associated with dairy product quality and safety. In this review, fluid milk will be used as the primary example to examine the adequacy and validity of conventional methods, the current trend of culture-independent methods, and the potential applications of metagenomics in dairy food research. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy inference systems as virtual sensors for hydrogen safety prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karri, Vishy; Ho, Tien [School of Engineering, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-65, Hobart, Tasmania 7001 (Australia); Madsen, Ole [Department of Production, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 16, DK-9220 Aalborg (Denmark)

    2008-06-15

    Hydrogen is increasingly investigated as an alternative fuel to petroleum products in running internal combustion engines and as powering remote area power systems using generators. The safety issues related to hydrogen gas are further exasperated by expensive instrumentation required to measure the percentage of explosive limits, flow rates and production pressure. This paper investigates the use of model based virtual sensors (rather than expensive physical sensors) in connection with hydrogen production with a Hogen 20 electrolyzer system. The virtual sensors are used to predict relevant hydrogen safety parameters, such as the percentage of lower explosive limit, hydrogen pressure and hydrogen flow rate as a function of different input conditions of power supplied (voltage and current), the feed of de-ionized water and Hogen 20 electrolyzer system parameters. The virtual sensors are developed by means of the application of various Artificial Intelligent techniques. To train and appraise the neural network models as virtual sensors, the Hogen 20 electrolyzer is instrumented with necessary sensors to gather experimental data which together with MATLAB neural networks toolbox and tailor made adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were used as predictive tools to estimate hydrogen safety parameters. It was shown that using the neural networks hydrogen safety parameters were predicted to less than 3% of percentage average root mean square error. The most accurate prediction was achieved by using ANFIS. (author)

  5. Applying theory of planned behavior in predicting of patient safety behaviors of nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javadi, Marzieh; Kadkhodaee, Maryam; Yaghoubi, Maryam; Maroufi, Maryam; Shams, Asadollah

    2013-01-01

    Patient safety has become a major concern throughout the world. It is the absence of preventable harm to a patient during the process of health care, ensuring safer care is an enormous challenge, psychosocial variables influences behaviors of human. The theory of planned behavior (TPB) is a well-validated behavioral decision-making model that has been used to predict social and health behaviors. This study is aimed to investigate predictors of nurse's patient safety intentions and behavior, using a TPB framework. Stratified sampling technique was used to choose 124 nurses who worked at the selected hospitals of Isfahan in 2011. Study tool was a questionnaire, designed by researchers team including 3 nurses a physician and a psychologist based on guideline of TPB model. Questionnaire Validity was confirmed by experts and its reliability was assessed by Cronbach's alpha as 0.87. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate how well each TPB variables predicted the variance in patient safety behavior. Analyzing was done by SPSS18. Finding revealed that "normative beliefs" had the greatest influence on nurses intention to implement patient safety behaviors. Analyzing data by hospital types and workplace wards showed that both in public and private hospitals normative beliefs has affected safety behaviors of nurses more than other variables. Also in surgical wards, nurses behaviors have been affected by "control beliefs" and in medical wards by normative beliefs. Normative beliefs, and subjective norms were the most influential factor of safety behavior of nurses in this study. Considering the role of cultural context in these issues, it seemseducation of managers and top individuals about patient safety and its importance is a priority also control believes were another important predicting factor of behavior in surgical wards and intensive care units. Regarding the complexity of work in these spaces, applying medical guidelines and effective

  6. The future trends for research on quality and safety of animal products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel D. Scollan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Quality must now be considered as a convergence between consumers' wishes and needs and the intrinsic and extrinsic quality attributes of food products. The increasing number of quality attributes which must be considered, increasing globalisation and the heterogeneity in consumption habits between countries are making this convergence progressively more difficult. In parallel, science is rapidly evolving (with the advent of genomics for instance, and a growing number of applications is thus expected for the improvement of food safety and quality. Among the meat and fish quality attributes, colour is very important because it determines, at least in part, consumer choice. The key targets to ensure a satisfactory colour are animal nutrition and management for fish, processing and product conditioning for meat. Tenderness and flavour continue to be important issues for the consumer because eating remains a pleasure. They both determine quality experience which itself influences repetitive purchase. Meat tenderness is a very complex problem which can be solved only by a holistic approach involving all the factors from conception, animal breeding and production, muscle biology and slaughter practice to carcass processing and meat preparation at the consumer end. Today, safety and healthiness are among the most important issues. Unfortunately, animal products can potentially be a source of biological and chemical contamination for consumers. The introduction of both control strategies along the food chain and the development of a food safety management system, from primary production to the domestic environment, are key issues that must be achieved. Despite a high dietary supply of saturated fats by dairy and meat products, it is imperative that professionals involved in animal research and in the associated industry convey the positive nutritional contributions of animal products to both consumers and health professionals. The latter include protein

  7. Prediction of Clinically Relevant Safety Signals of Nephrotoxicity through Plasma Metabolite Profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. B. Mattes

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Addressing safety concerns such as drug-induced kidney injury (DIKI early in the drug pharmaceutical development process ensures both patient safety and efficient clinical development. We describe a unique adjunct to standard safety assessment wherein the metabolite profile of treated animals is compared with the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database in order to predict the potential for a wide variety of adverse events, including DIKI. To examine this approach, a study of five compounds (phenytoin, cyclosporin A, doxorubicin, captopril, and lisinopril was initiated by the Technology Evaluation Consortium under the auspices of the Drug Safety Executive Council (DSEC. The metabolite profiles for rats treated with these compounds matched established reference patterns in the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database indicative of each compound’s well-described clinical toxicities. For example, the DIKI associated with cyclosporine A and doxorubicin was correctly predicted by metabolite profiling, while no evidence for DIKI was found for phenytoin, consistent with its clinical picture. In some cases the clinical toxicity (hepatotoxicity, not generally seen in animal studies, was detected with MetaMap Tox. Thus metabolite profiling coupled with the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database offers a unique and powerful approach for augmenting safety assessment and avoiding clinical adverse events such as DIKI.

  8. CURRENT TRENDS OF THE PROVISION FOR RADIATION SAFETY OF THE POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onishenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available P.V.Ramzaev”The article is devoted to the actual issues ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety providing at the present stage. The important role of radiation-hygienic passportization is underlined in the process of the obtaining of objective information of radiation situation in the country, of population exposure doses from the all sources: artificial and natural, from the use of ionizing irradiation sources in medicine. The leading role is shown of the natural ionizing irradiation sources in the level of the country population exposure. The main directions of activities are stated aimed on the decreasing of population exposure doses from the natural sources. The brief characteristics is given of the radiation situation on the territories radioactively contaminated after the accident on the Chernobyl NPP, in the Pacific Ocean basin after the accident on the “Fukushima-1”NPP, of the main measures for radiation protection providing and for counteraction to radiation terrorism during the period of international sports and mass actions which were carried out in Russia in the last years (XXVII World Summer Universiade in2013 inKazan, XXII Olympic and XI Winter Paralympics Games in2014 inSochi. The most important tasks are defined for the improvement ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety at the present stage.

  9. Critically Evaluated Database of Environmental Properties: The Importance of Thermodynamic Relationships, Chemical Family Trends, and Prediction Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockbank, Sarah A.; Russon, Jenna L.; Giles, Neil F.; Rowley, Richard L.; Wilding, W. Vincent

    2013-11-01

    A database containing Henry's law constants, infinite dilution activity coefficients, and solubility data of industrially important chemicals has been compiled for aqueous systems. These properties are important in predicting the fate and transport of chemicals in the environment. The structure of this database is compatible with the existing 801 database and DIADEM interface, and data are included for a subset of compounds found in the 801 database. Thermodynamic relationships, chemical family trends, and predicted values were carefully considered when designating recommended values.

  10. A quality control method for nuclear instrumentation and control systems based on software safety prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Han Seong; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2000-04-01

    In the case of safety-related applications like nuclear instrumentation and control (NI&C), safety-oriented quality control is required. The objective of this paper is to present a software safety classification method as a safety-oriented quality control tool. Based on this method, we predict the risk (and thus safety) of software items that are at the core of NI&C systems. Then we classify the software items according to the degree of the risk. The method can be used earlier than at the detailed design phase. Furthermore, the method can also be used in all the development phases without major changes. The proposed method seeks to utilize the measures that can be obtained from the safety analysis and requirements analysis. Using the measures proved to be desirable in a few aspects. The authors have introduced fuzzy approximate reasoning to the classification method because experts' knowledge covers the vague frontiers between good quality and bad quality with linguistic uncertainty and fuzziness. Fuzzy Colored Petri Net (FCPN) is introduced in order to offer a formal framework for the classification method and facilitate the knowledge representation, modification, or verification. Through the proposed quality control method, high-quality NI&C systems can be developed effectively and used safely.

  11. Case Study on Influence Factor Trend Analysis of the Accidents and Events of Nuclear Power Plants by applying Nuclear Safety Culture Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, J. Y.; Park, Y. W.; Park, H.G. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    This study 1) established the standard based on frameworks of safety culture principles that show safety culture promotion goals, 2) analyzed the linkages with the frameworks that were established by analyzing each incident cause and weak point from selected 268 cases(rating over INES grade 1) among 4,088 cases (as of April 1, 2015). The 4,088 cases were selected as a result of database analysis from 702 accidents recorded in accident and rating evaluation reports that were published in the National Nuclear Safety Commission and overseas IRS (International Reporting System for operating Experience), and 3) finally conducted a trend analysis studies with these comprehensive results. From the investigations, followings were concluded. 1) In order to analyze the safety culture, analysis methodology is required. 2) Analytical methodology for building sustainable safety culture promoting a virtuous cycle system was developed 3) Among variety of process input data, 970 domestic and overseas incidents were selected as targets and 502 accidents were classified as safety culture related events by utilizing screen filter of IAEA GS-G-3.5 Appendix I and Framework (Nuclear Safety Culture Base Frame) developed by BEES, Inc. for safety culture analysis method. 4) As a result, complex safety culture influence factors for the one reason which was difficult to separate by conventional methods was able to be analyzed. 5) The cumulative data through the system was results of virtuous trend analysis rather than temporary results. Thus, it could be unique cultural factors of the domestic industry and could derive trend differences for domestic safety culture factors accordingly.

  12. Thermal hydraulic test for reactor safety system - Critical heat flux experiment and development of prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Soon Heung; Baek, Won Pil; Yang, Soo Hyung; No, Chang Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea)

    2000-04-01

    To acquire CHF data through the experiments and develop prediction models, research was conducted. Final objectives of research are as follows: 1) Production of tube CHF data for low and middle pressure and mass flux and Flow Boiling Visualization. 2) Modification and suggestion of tube CHF prediction models. 3) Development of fuel bundle CHF prediction methodology base on tube CHF prediction models. The major results of research are as follows: 1) Production of the CHF data for low and middle pressure and mass flux. - Acquisition of CHF data (764) for low and middle pressure and flow conditions - Analysis of CHF trends based on the CHF data - Assessment of existing CHF prediction methods with the CHF data 2) Modification and suggestion of tube CHF prediction models. - Development of a unified CHF model applicable for a wide parametric range - Development of a threshold length correlation - Improvement of CHF look-up table using the threshold length correlation 3) Development of fuel bundle CHF prediction methodology base on tube CHF prediction models. - Development of bundle CHF prediction methodology using correction factor. 11 refs., 134 figs., 25 tabs. (Author)

  13. Anticancer drugs: Consumption trends in Spain, prediction of environmental concentrations and potential risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franquet-Griell, Helena; Gómez-Canela, Cristian; Ventura, Francesc; Lacorte, Silvia

    2017-10-01

    This study presents the occurrence and impact of 78 anticancer drugs in Spanish river basins based on consumption data in pharmacies during the period 2010-2015 and calculation of the predicted environmental concentrations (PEC). The total consumption of anticancer drugs in Spanish pharmacies was of 23.4 tons in 2015, being mycophenolic acid and hydroxycarbamide the drugs with the highest prescription. Their PECs in river at national scale were up to 80 ng/L. However, the use of different dilution factors revealed major differences between hydrographic basins, and PECriver rose up to 68,014 ng/L in highly populated rivers with low flows. Concerning acute toxicity, there was no expected risk for the aquatic environment. However, chronic toxicity tests revealed possible long-term mutagenic effects for aquatic organisms. This study provides the tools for the estimation of PEC at river basin scale using time trend consumption data compilation. This information is very useful for prioritization of compounds of concern and permit to focus resources in environmental monitoring and risk evaluation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Resting heart rate variability predicts safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meike Pappens

    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate whether interindividual differences in autonomic inhibitory control predict safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm. Data from a previously reported study (N = 40 were extended (N = 17 and re-analyzed to test whether healthy participants' resting heart rate variability (HRV - a proxy of cardiac vagal tone - predicts learning performance. The conditioned stimulus (CS was a slight sensation of breathlessness induced by a flow resistor, the unconditioned stimulus (US was an aversive short-lasting suffocation experience induced by a complete occlusion of the breathing circuitry. During acquisition, the paired group received 6 paired CS-US presentations; the control group received 6 explicitly unpaired CS-US presentations. In the extinction phase, both groups were exposed to 6 CS-only presentations. Measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance responses (SCR and US-expectancy ratings. Resting HRV significantly predicted the startle blink EMG learning curves both during acquisition and extinction. In the unpaired group, higher levels of HRV at rest predicted safety learning to the CS during acquisition. In the paired group, higher levels of HRV were associated with better extinction. Our findings suggest that the strength or integrity of prefrontal inhibitory mechanisms involved in safety- and extinction learning can be indexed by HRV at rest.

  15. Prioritizing Highway Safety Manual's crash prediction variables using boosted regression trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Dibakar; Alluri, Priyanka; Gan, Albert

    2015-06-01

    The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) recommends using the empirical Bayes (EB) method with locally derived calibration factors to predict an agency's safety performance. However, the data needs for deriving these local calibration factors are significant, requiring very detailed roadway characteristics information. Many of the data variables identified in the HSM are currently unavailable in the states' databases. Moreover, the process of collecting and maintaining all the HSM data variables is cost-prohibitive. Prioritization of the variables based on their impact on crash predictions would, therefore, help to identify influential variables for which data could be collected and maintained for continued updates. This study aims to determine the impact of each independent variable identified in the HSM on crash predictions. A relatively recent data mining approach called boosted regression trees (BRT) is used to investigate the association between the variables and crash predictions. The BRT method can effectively handle different types of predictor variables, identify very complex and non-linear association among variables, and compute variable importance. Five years of crash data from 2008 to 2012 on two urban and suburban facility types, two-lane undivided arterials and four-lane divided arterials, were analyzed for estimating the influence of variables on crash predictions. Variables were found to exhibit non-linear and sometimes complex relationship to predicted crash counts. In addition, only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post

  17. Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

    2018-02-01

    Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  18. SAFETY

    CERN Multimedia

    Niels Dupont

    2013-01-01

    CERN Safety rules and Radiation Protection at CMS The CERN Safety rules are defined by the Occupational Health & Safety and Environmental Protection Unit (HSE Unit), CERN’s institutional authority and central Safety organ attached to the Director General. In particular the Radiation Protection group (DGS-RP1) ensures that personnel on the CERN sites and the public are protected from potentially harmful effects of ionising radiation linked to CERN activities. The RP Group fulfils its mandate in collaboration with the CERN departments owning or operating sources of ionising radiation and having the responsibility for Radiation Safety of these sources. The specific responsibilities concerning "Radiation Safety" and "Radiation Protection" are delegated as follows: Radiation Safety is the responsibility of every CERN Department owning radiation sources or using radiation sources put at its disposition. These Departments are in charge of implementing the requi...

  19. Psychosocial safety climate moderates the job demand-resource interaction in predicting workgroup distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dollard, Maureen F; Tuckey, Michelle R; Dormann, Christian

    2012-03-01

    Psychosocial safety climate (PSC) arises from workplace policies, practices, and procedures for the protection of worker psychological health and safety that are largely driven by management. Many work stress theories are based on the fundamental interaction hypothesis - that a high level of job demands (D) will lead to psychological distress and that this relationship will be offset when there are high job resources (R). However we proposed that this interaction really depends on the organizational context; in particular high levels of psychosocial safety climate will enable the safe utilization of resources to reduce demands. The study sample consisted of police constables from 23 police units (stations) with longitudinal survey responses at two time points separated by 14 months (Time 1, N=319, Time 2, N=139). We used hierarchical linear modeling to assess the effect of the proposed three-way interaction term (PSC×D×R) on change in workgroup distress variance over time. Specifically we confirmed the interaction between emotional demands and emotional resources (assessed at the individual level), in the context of unit psychosocial safety climate (aggregated individual data). As predicted, high emotional resources moderated the positive relationship between emotional demands and change in workgroup distress but only when there were high levels of unit psychosocial safety climate. Results were confirmed using a split-sample analysis. Results support psychosocial safety climate as a property of the organization and a target for higher order controls for reducing work stress. The 'right' climate enables resources to do their job. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Application of Petri nets to reliability prediction of occupant safety systems with partial detection and repair

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kleyner, Andre, E-mail: andre.v.kleyner@delphi.co [Delphi Corporation, Electronics and Safety Division, P.O. Box 9005, M.S. CTC 2E, Kokomo, IN 46904 (United States); Volovoi, Vitali, E-mail: vitali.volovoi@ae.gatech.ed [School of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30332 (United States)

    2010-06-15

    This paper presents an application of stochastic Petri nets (SPN) to calculate the availability of safety critical on-demand systems. Traditional methods of estimating system reliability include standards-based or field return-based reliability prediction methods. These methods do not take into account the effect of fault-detection capability and penalize the addition of detection circuitry due to the higher parts count. Therefore, calculating system availability, which can be linked to the system's probability of failure on demand (P{sub fd}), can be a better alternative to reliability prediction. The process of estimating the P{sub fd} of a safety system can be further complicated by the presence of system imperfections such as partial-fault detection by users and untimely or uncompleted repairs. Additionally, most system failures cannot be represented by Poisson process Markov chain methods, which are commonly utilized for the purposes of estimating P{sub fd}, as these methods are not well-suited for the analysis of non-Poisson failures. This paper suggests a methodology and presents a case study of SPN modeling adequately handling most of the above problems. The model will be illustrated with a case study of an automotive electronics airbag controller as an example of a safety critical on-demand system.

  1. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T

    2011-07-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  2. An optimality framework to predict decomposer carbon-use efficiency trends along stoichiometric gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzoni, S.; Capek, P.; Mooshammer, M.; Lindahl, B.; Richter, A.; Santruckova, H.

    2016-12-01

    Litter and soil organic matter decomposers feed on substrates with much wider C:N and C:P ratios then their own cellular composition, raising the question as to how they can adapt their metabolism to such a chronic stoichiometric imbalance. Here we propose an optimality framework to address this question, based on the hypothesis that carbon-use efficiency (CUE) can be optimally adjusted to maximize the decomposer growth rate. When nutrients are abundant, increasing CUE improves decomposer growth rate, at the expense of higher nutrient demand. However, when nutrients are scarce, increased nutrient demand driven by high CUE can trigger nutrient limitation and inhibit growth. An intermediate, `optimal' CUE ensures balanced growth at the verge of nutrient limitation. We derive a simple analytical equation that links this optimal CUE to organic substrate and decomposer biomass C:N and C:P ratios, and to the rate of inorganic nutrient supply (e.g., fertilization). This equation allows formulating two specific hypotheses: i) decomposer CUE should increase with widening organic substrate C:N and C:P ratios with a scaling exponent between 0 (with abundant inorganic nutrients) and -1 (scarce inorganic nutrients), and ii) CUE should increase with increasing inorganic nutrient supply, for a given organic substrate stoichiometry. These hypotheses are tested using a new database encompassing nearly 2000 estimates of CUE from about 160 studies, spanning aquatic and terrestrial decomposers of litter and more stabilized organic matter. The theoretical predictions are largely confirmed by our data analysis, except for the lack of fertilization effects on terrestrial decomposer CUE. While stoichiometric drivers constrain the general trends in CUE, the relatively large variability in CUE estimates suggests that other factors could be at play as well. For example, temperature is often cited as a potential driver of CUE, but we only found limited evidence of temperature effects

  3. Distributed Measuring System for Predictive Diagnosis of Uninterruptible Power Supplies in Safety-Critical Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Saponara

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes a scalable architecture of an Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS system, with predictive diagnosis capabilities, for safety critical applications. A Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA has identified the faults occurring in the energy storage unit, based on Valve Regulated Lead-Acid batteries, and in the 3-phase high power transformers, used in switching converters and for power isolation, as the main bottlenecks for power system reliability. To address these issues, a distributed network of measuring nodes is proposed, where vibration-based mechanical stress diagnosis is implemented together with electrical (voltage, current, impedance and thermal degradation analysis. Power system degradation is tracked through multi-channel measuring nodes with integrated digital signal processing in the transformed frequency domain, from 0.1 Hz to 1 kHz. Experimental measurements on real power systems for safety-critical applications validate the diagnostic unit.

  4. Group contribution modelling for the prediction of safety-related and environmental properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens; Sin, Gürkan

    warming potential and ozone depletion potential. Process safety studies and environmental assessments rely on accurate property data. Safety data such as flammability limits, heat of combustion or auto ignition temperature play an important role in quantifying the risk of fire and explosions among others....... Global warming potential and ozone depletion potential became a standard to analyze the environmental impact of processes and products. In the early stage of process development and analysis, experimental values are often not available due to cost or time constraints. In this case property prediction...... of GC factors provide additional structural information beside the functional group. The contributions of all three factors are then summed up. For the database, DIPPR are used together with the reported measurement accuracy. For parameter estimation, a comprehensive statistical methodology was followed...

  5. Global trends in nasopharyngeal cancer mortality since 1970 and predictions for 2020: Focus on low-risk areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carioli, Greta; Negri, Eva; Kawakita, Daisuke; Garavello, Werner; La Vecchia, Carlo; Malvezzi, Matteo

    2017-05-15

    Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) mortality shows great disparity between endemic high risk areas, where non-keratinizing carcinoma (NKC) histology is prevalent, and non-endemic low risk regions, where the keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma (KSCC) type is more frequent. We used the World Health Organization database to calculate NPC mortality trends from 1970 to 2014 in several countries worldwide. For the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and Japan, we also predicted trends to 2020. In 2012, the highest age-standardized (world standard) rates were in Hong Kong (4.51/100,000 men and 1.15/100,000 women), followed by selected Eastern European countries. The lowest rates were in Northern Europe and Latin America. EU rates were 0.27/100,000 men and 0.09/100,000 women, US rates were 0.20/100,000 men and 0.08/100,000 women and Japanese rates were 0.16/100,000 men and 0.04/100,000 women. NPC mortality trends were favourable for several countries. The decline was -15% in men and -5% in women between 2002 and 2012 in the EU, -12% in men and -9% in women in the US and about -30% in both sexes in Hong Kong and Japan. The favourable patterns in Europe and the United States are predicted to continue. Changes in salted fish and preserved food consumption account for the fall in NKC. Smoking and alcohol prevalence disparities between sexes and geographic areas may explain the different rates and trends observed for KSCC and partially for NKC. Dietary patterns, as well as improvement in management of the disease, may partly account for the observed trends, too. © 2017 UICC.

  6. Short-Term Pulmonary Function Trends Are Predictive of Mortality in Interstitial Lung Disease Associated With Systemic Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, Nicole S; Hoyles, Rachel K; Denton, Christopher P; Hansell, David M; Renzoni, Elisabetta A; Maher, Toby M; Nicholson, Andrew G; Wells, Athol U

    2017-08-01

    To determine the prognostic value of pulmonary function test (PFT) trends at 1 and 2 years in interstitial lung disease (ILD) associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc). The prognostic significance of PFT trends at 1 year (n = 162) and 2 years (n = 140) was examined against 15-year survival in patients with SSc-associated ILD. PFT trends, expressed as continuous change and as categorical change in separate analyses, were examined against mortality in univariate and multivariate models. SSc-associated ILD was defined at presentation as either limited lung fibrosis or extensive lung fibrosis, using the United Kingdom Raynaud's and Scleroderma Association severity staging system. One-year PFT trends were predictive of mortality only in patients with extensive lung fibrosis: categorical change in the forced vital capacity (FVC), alone or in combination with categorical change in the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco), had greater prognostic significance than continuous change in the FVC or trends in other PFT variables. Taking into account both prognostic value and sensitivity to change, the optimal definition of progression for trial purposes was an FVC and DLco composite end point, consisting of either an FVC decline from baseline of ≥10% or an FVC decline of 5-9% in association with a DLco decline of ≥15%. At 2 years, gas transfer trends had the greatest prognostic significance, in the whole cohort and in those with limited lung fibrosis. However, in patients with extensive lung fibrosis, the above-defined FVC and DLco composite end point was the strongest prognostic determinant. Larger changes in the FVC:DLco ratio than in the carbon monoxide transfer coefficient were required to achieve prognostic significance. Based on linkages to long-term outcomes, these findings provide support for use of routine spirometry and gas transfer monitoring in patients with SSc-associated ILD, with further evaluation of a composite FVC and DLco end point

  7. An environmental stress model correctly predicts unimodal trends in overall species richness and diversity along intertidal elevation gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zwerschke, Nadescha; Bollen, Merle; Molis, Markus; Scrosati, Ricardo A.

    2013-12-01

    Environmental stress is a major factor structuring communities. An environmental stress model (ESM) predicts that overall species richness and diversity should follow a unimodal trend along the full stress gradient along which assemblages from a regional biota can occur (not to be confused with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis, which makes predictions only for basal species along an intermediate-to-high stress range). Past studies could only provide partial support for ESM predictions because of the limited stress range surveyed or a low sampling resolution. In this study, we measured overall species richness and diversity (considering all seaweeds and invertebrates) along the intertidal elevation gradient on two wave-sheltered rocky shores from Helgoland Island, on the NE Atlantic coast. In intertidal habitats, tides cause a pronounced gradient of increasing stress from low to high elevations. We surveyed up to nine contiguous elevation zones between the lowest intertidal elevation (low stress) and the high intertidal boundary (high stress). Nonlinear regression analyses revealed that overall species richness and diversity followed unimodal trends across elevations on the two studied shores. Therefore, our study suggests that the ESM might constitute a useful tool to predict local richness and diversity as a function of environmental stress. Performing tests on other systems (marine as well as terrestrial) should help to refine the model.

  8. Reported safety environment predicts injuries among children aged 1-6 years in specific communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siman-Tov, Maya; Peleg, Kobi; Baron-Epel, Orna

    2018-01-09

    To measure individual and environmental risk factors predicting reported child injuries. A prospective, follow-up study was performed including 380 parents of children aged 1-6 years, living in various communities throughout Israel. Parents were interviewed three times, 3 months apart. Injuries were defined as including minor injuries that required parental attention and medically attended injuries: doctor or nurse visit, emergency medical services or hospitalisation. Parents reported the level of safety for both indoor and outdoor environments, covering 11 items pertaining to safety elements dedicated to prevent child injury. Socio-demographic and parents' attitudes towards child injury were also measured. During the 6-month follow-up period, 37% of parents reported that their child was injured, and 29% of them received medical attention. Reported outdoor safety environment was found to be a predictor of child injury, suggesting that the risk of child injury is higher among children living in unsafe outdoor environments. However, this depended on levels of religiosity (with an odds ratio of 2.48 and 95% confidence interval of 1.09-5.64 for traditional families and an odds ratio of 3.65 and 95% confidence interval of 1.58-8.46 for religious families). Safe environments play a major role in decreasing the risk of injury among children. In order to decrease injury rates among young children, attention should be given to the immediate outdoor environment in which children grow up and play. Decision makers might particularly want to pay closer attention to the influence of religious backgrounds on child safety through safe environments. © 2018 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  9. Development of a micro-simulation model to predict road traffic safety on intersections with surrogate safety measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klunder, G.; Abdoelbasier, A.; Immers, B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes an ongoing research project at TNO in the Netherlands for assessing the safety of road networks using micro-simulation techniques. A benefit of micro-simulation comes from the ability to evaluate the safety of new ITS systems, new infrastructure design, management strategies and

  10. Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations.

  11. Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh Rajagopalan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

  12. Predicting the role of veterinary medicine in future health and food safety challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fejzić, N.; Šerić-Haračić, S.

    2017-09-01

    Animals have always been a source of food, materials, protection and wellbeing for humans; however, animal diseases, including zoonoses, have both direct and indirect negative effects on human health, economy and the society. Since its establishment, the veterinary profession has provided crucial input in eradicating disease, increasing animal production and reducing losses due to diseases. Currently, foodborne diseases and zoonoses have raised awareness in developed countries, which have excellent systems for disease surveillance and reporting both in humans and animal populations. Due to lack of modern, integrated surveillance and reporting, the burden of zoonoses and foodborne diseases in developing European countries is much harder to assess. Differences in countries’ animal health status (demonstrated through disease surveillance) have been a main pivot point for international trade of animals and animal products. However, rapid and dramatic evolvement of the health trends in the world changed the principles of animal disease surveillance. Approaches requiring lower cost (i.e. risk-based surveillance) are now proposed, not only due to less available public funding, but also because the costs are harder to justify to policy makers if a disease is exotic and/or rare. Therefore, the veterinary profession has faced insufficient interest of governments and funds for further research into many persistent endemic animal diseases and zoonoses. On the other hand, eradication of selected diseases in some areas while elsewhere they still persist, and the continuous emergence of new diseases, cannot guarantee permanent epidemiological stability. As food safety and security become more important, global trends and events have highlighted the biological, health and economic inseparability of the relationships between humans, animals as pets and/or food sources and wildlife within the social and ecological framework of living space that these species share. Veterinarians

  13. Tool Sequence Trends in Minimally Invasive Surgery: Statistical Analysis and Implications for Predictive Control of Multifunction Instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl A. Nelson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of 67 minimally invasive surgical procedures covering 11 different procedure types to determine patterns of tool use. A new graph-theoretic approach was taken to organize and analyze the data. Through grouping surgeries by type, trends of common tool changes were identified. Using the concept of signal/noise ratio, these trends were found to be statistically strong. The tool-use trends were used to generate tool placement patterns for modular (multi-tool, cartridge-type surgical tool systems, and the same 67 surgeries were numerically simulated to determine the optimality of these tool arrangements. The results indicate that aggregated tool-use data (by procedure type can be employed to predict tool-use sequences with good accuracy, and also indicate the potential for artificial intelligence as a means of preoperative and/or intraoperative planning. Furthermore, this suggests that the use of multifunction surgical tools can be optimized to streamline surgical workflow.

  14. Trends in pharmacy staff’s perception of patient safety in Swedish community pharmacies after re-regulation of conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia; Nordén-Hägg, Annika

    2014-01-01

    Background: All changes in the regulation of pharmacies have an impact on the work carried out in pharmacies and also on patient safety, regardless of whether this is the intention or not. Objective: To compare staff apprehension regarding some aspects of patient safety and quality in community......, in order to counteract conceivable decline in factors including patient safety and working conditions....... possible. Results: All four items demonstrated a significant decrease in the first survey after the changes as compared to before. In the second survey significant differences were found on the two items representing safety climate whereas the items representing team climate and management showed...

  15. Predictive Power for Program Success from Engineering and Manufacturing Development Performance Trends

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gailey, Charles

    2002-01-01

    ...; they were descriptive rather than predictive. It was also found that the Selective Acquisition Reporting system had succeeded in identifying the "bad" programs; but corrective measures, if any, were ineffective. Additional research indicated that the contract type most likely to lead to success in EMD was Cost Plus Incentive Fee.

  16. Temporal Trends and Future Predictions of Mercury Concentrations in Northwest Greenland Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Hair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, Rune; Born, E.W.; Riget, Frank Farsø

    2011-01-01

    Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafterHg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly...... significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p polar bear......-2008 concentrations ofHg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call...

  17. Study of the Continuous Improvement Trend for Health, Safety and Environmental Indicators, after Establishment of Integrated Management System (IMS) in a Pharmaceutical Industry in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariouryad, Pegah; Golbabaei, Farideh; Nasiri, Parvin; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Marioryad, Hossein

    2015-10-01

    Nowadays, organizations try to improve their services and consequently adopt management systems and standards which have become key parts in various industries. One of these management systems which have been noticed in the recent years is Integrated Management System that is the combination of quality, health, safety and environment management systems. This study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the improvement trend after establishment of integrated management system for health, safety and environment indicators, in a pharmaceutical industry in Iran. First, during several inspections in different parts of the industry, indicators that should have been noted were listed and then these indicators were organized in 3 domains of health, safety and environment in the form of a questionnaire that followed Likert method of scaling. Also, the weight of each index was resulted from averaging out of 30 managers and the viewpoints of the related experts in the field. Moreover, by checking the documents and evidence of different years (5 contemplation years of this study), the score of each indicator was determined by multiplying the weight and score of the indices and were finally analysed. Over 5 years, scores of health scope indicators, increased from 161.99 to 202.23. Score in the first year after applying the integrated management system establishment was 172.37 in safety part and in the final year increased to 197.57. The changes of environmental scope rates, from the beginning of the program up to the last year increased from 49.24 to 64.27. Integrated management systems help organizations to improve programs to achieve their objectives. Although in this study all trends of health, safety and environmental indicator changes were positive, but at the same time showed to be slow. So, one can suggest that the result of an annual evaluation should be applied in planning future activities for the years ahead.

  18. Can we predict SPEs before solar surface events? For the safety operation of manned space activities-

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, F.

    It is foregone conclusion that human activities in space will become more varied and more frequent as we move through the 21st century. Space tourism is now becoming practical realities, and manned Moon base or manned mission to Mars is also now considered feasible. For the safety operations of these manned space activities, the prediction of the Solar energetic Particle Events (SPEs) around the manned missions is one of the most important requisite. A typical SPE will start at 1 AU after a few tens of minutes when we identify the monstrous event near the solar surface by the observations of the peak flux and structure of the X-ray event, and/or brightness and structure of the coronal mass ejection (CME) / flare, and/or special spectral type of solar radio bursts. Consequently, it takes a few hours to reach maximum level. This maximum SPE level is sometimes lethal for the aurora watching space tourists, out-door activities at the Moon base, and extra vehicular activities during Mars explorations. The lead-time of about 2.5 hour or less for lethal SPEs may not be safe enough for future manned space activities. For our children and ground-children, we have to discover most reliable precursors of CME / flare, or think out the most practical prediction tools that are faster than the speed of light.

  19. Predicting drug safety and communicating risk: benefits of a Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

    2017-11-06

    Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualisations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Toxicology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Performance improvement of artificial neural networks designed for safety key parameters prediction in nuclear research reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazrou, Hakim [Division de Physique Radiologique, Centre de Recherche Nucleaire d' Alger (CRNA), 02 Boulevard Frantz, Fanon, B.P. 399, 16000 Alger (Algeria)], E-mail: mazrou_h@crna.dz

    2009-10-15

    The present work explores, through a comprehensive sensitivity study, a new methodology to find a suitable artificial neural network architecture which improves its performances capabilities in predicting two significant parameters in safety assessment i.e. the multiplication factor k{sub eff} and the fuel powers peaks P{sub max} of the benchmark 10 MW IAEA LEU core research reactor. The performances under consideration were the improvement of network predictions during the validation process and the speed up of computational time during the training phase. To reach this objective, we took benefit from Neural Network MATLAB Toolbox to carry out a widespread sensitivity study. Consequently, the speed up of several popular algorithms has been assessed during the training process. The comprehensive neural system was subsequently trained on different transfer functions, number of hidden neurons, levels of error and size of generalization corpus. Thus, using a personal computer with data created from preceding work, the final results obtained for the treated benchmark were improved in both network generalization phase and much more in computational time during the training process in comparison to the results obtained previously.

  1. Spatiotemporal trends in Canadian domestic wild boar production and habitat predict wild pig distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Nicole; Laforge, Michel; van Beest, Floris

    2017-01-01

    eradication of wild pigs is rarely feasible after establishment over large areas, effective management will depend on strengthening regulations and enforcement of containment practices for Canadian domestic wild boar farms. Initiation of coordinated provincial and federal efforts to implement population...... wild boar and test the propagule pressure hypothesis to improve predictive ability of an existing habitat-based model of wild pigs. We reviewed spatiotemporal patterns in domestic wild boar production across ten Canadian provinces during 1991–2011 and evaluated the ability of wild boar farm...... distribution to improve predictive models of wild pig occurrence using a resource selection probability function for wild pigs in Saskatchewan. Domestic wild boar production in Canada increased from 1991 to 2001 followed by sharp declines in all provinces. The distribution of domestic wild boar farms in 2006...

  2. Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Poore, Joshua C.; Forlines, Clifton L.; Miller, Sarah M.; Regan, John R.; Irvine, John M.

    2014-01-01

    The decision sciences are increasingly challenged to advance methods for modeling analysts, accounting for both analytic strengths and weaknesses, to improve inferences taken from increasingly large and complex sources of data. We examine whether psychometric measures?personality, cognitive style, motivated cognition?predict analytic performance and whether psychometric measures are competitive with aptitude measures (i.e., SAT scores) as analyst sample selection criteria. A heterogeneous, na...

  3. Personality, Cognitive Style, Motivation, and Aptitude Predict Systematic Trends in Analytic Forecasting Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, Joshua C; Forlines, Clifton L; Miller, Sarah M; Regan, John R; Irvine, John M

    2014-12-01

    The decision sciences are increasingly challenged to advance methods for modeling analysts, accounting for both analytic strengths and weaknesses, to improve inferences taken from increasingly large and complex sources of data. We examine whether psychometric measures-personality, cognitive style, motivated cognition-predict analytic performance and whether psychometric measures are competitive with aptitude measures (i.e., SAT scores) as analyst sample selection criteria. A heterogeneous, national sample of 927 participants completed an extensive battery of psychometric measures and aptitude tests and was asked 129 geopolitical forecasting questions over the course of 1 year. Factor analysis reveals four dimensions among psychometric measures; dimensions characterized by differently motivated "top-down" cognitive styles predicted distinctive patterns in aptitude and forecasting behavior. These dimensions were not better predictors of forecasting accuracy than aptitude measures. However, multiple regression and mediation analysis reveals that these dimensions influenced forecasting accuracy primarily through bias in forecasting confidence. We also found that these facets were competitive with aptitude tests as forecast sampling criteria designed to mitigate biases in forecasting confidence while maximizing accuracy. These findings inform the understanding of individual difference dimensions at the intersection of analytic aptitude and demonstrate that they wield predictive power in applied, analytic domains.

  4. Temporal trends and future predictions of mercury concentrations in Northwest Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) hair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, R; Born, E W; Rigét, F; Aubail, A; Sonne, C; Drimmie, R; Basu, N

    2011-02-15

    Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafter Hg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p polar bear Hg exposure is 95.6-96.2% anthropogenic in its origin. Assuming a continued anthropogenic increase, this model estimated concentrations in 2050 and 2100 will be 40- and 92-fold the baseline concentration, respectively, which is equivalent to a 97.5 and 98.9% man-made contribution. None of the 2001-2008 concentrations of Hg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call for detailed effect studies in main target organs such as brain, liver, kidney, and sexual organs in the Northwest Greenland polar bears.

  5. Accident prediction models and road safety impact assessment : recommendations for using thse tools. Deliverable D2 of the RiPCORD-iSEREST project (Road Infrastructure Safety Protection - Core-Research and Development for Road Safety in Europe; Increasing safety and reliability of secondary roads for a sustainable Surface Transport).

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eenink, R. Reurings, M. Elvik, R. Cardoso, J. Wichert, S. & Stefan, C.

    2009-01-01

    In workpackage 2 (WP 2) of RipCord-Iserest two instruments have been researched, both intended to provide this insight: Accident Prediction Models (APM) and Road safety Impact Assessments (RIA). An Accident Prediction Model is a mathematical formula describing the relation between the safety level

  6. SAFETY

    CERN Multimedia

    C. Schaefer and N. Dupont

    2013-01-01

      “Safety is the highest priority”: this statement from CERN is endorsed by the CMS management. An interpretation of this statement may bring you to the conclusion that you should stop working in order to avoid risks. If the safety is the priority, work is not! This would be a misunderstanding and misinterpretation. One should understand that “working safely” or “operating safely” is the priority at CERN. CERN personnel are exposed to different hazards on many levels on a daily basis. However, risk analyses and assessments are done in order to limit the number and the gravity of accidents. For example, this process takes place each time you cross the road. The hazard is the moving vehicle, the stake is you and the risk might be the risk of collision between both. The same principle has to be applied during our daily work. In particular, keeping in mind the general principles of prevention defined in the late 1980s. These principles wer...

  7. SAFETY

    CERN Document Server

    M. Plagge, C. Schaefer and N. Dupont

    2013-01-01

    Fire Safety – Essential for a particle detector The CMS detector is a marvel of high technology, one of the most precise particle measurement devices we have built until now. Of course it has to be protected from external and internal incidents like the ones that can occur from fires. Due to the fire load, the permanent availability of oxygen and the presence of various ignition sources mostly based on electricity this has to be addressed. Starting from the beam pipe towards the magnet coil, the detector is protected by flooding it with pure gaseous nitrogen during operation. The outer shell of CMS, namely the yoke and the muon chambers are then covered by an emergency inertion system also based on nitrogen. To ensure maximum fire safety, all materials used comply with the CERN regulations IS 23 and IS 41 with only a few exceptions. Every piece of the 30-tonne polyethylene shielding is high-density material, borated, boxed within steel and coated with intumescent (a paint that creates a thick co...

  8. Skill of Operational Aerosol Forecast Models in Predicting Aerosol Events and Trends of the Eastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, J. S.; Kaku, K.; Xian, P.; Benedetti, A.; Colarco, P. R.; da Silva, A. M., Jr.; Holben, B. N.; Rubin, J.; Tanaka, T. Y.; Zhang, J.

    2016-12-01

    Global aerosol forecast models are now commonplace, providing predictions of dust storms, smoke event transport and even anthropogenic pollution events out to 6 days or even seasonally. These models often serve dual purposes providing analysis or reanalysis products for earth science applications as well as aerosol forecast guidance. The NASA Studies of Emissions & Atmospheric Composition, Clouds & Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) coupled with the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction Multi Model Ensemble (ICAP-MME) provided an excellent opportunity to evaluate the nature and skill of global aerosol forecast models to simulate or predict the nature of a relatively "simple" anthropogenic pollution regime of the eastern United States. Generally, models are able to capture the relative distribution of haze events two days out, and reanalysis versions easily capture decadal trends. However, aerosol physics, chemistry, and meteorology uncertainties lead to the conclusion that these forecasts and reanalyses should be interpreted along the same semi-quantitative lines as most forecasters interpret meteorological model forecasts and analyses. Here, we systematically explore how differences in model configuration and data assimilation methodologies translate into differences in final model analysis and forecasts in a series of events observed during SEAC4RS and then extrapolate findings to the problem of decadal monitoring. We also explore the impact and ramifications of transient events such as biomass burning and dust impact forecast product interpretation.

  9. Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

    2014-12-01

    The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

  10. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  11. Efficacy, safety, predictability, aberrations and corneal biomechnical parameters after SMILE and FLEx: Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jing; Cao, Nan-Jue; Xia, Li-Kun

    2016-01-01

    AIM To identify possible differences of efficacy, safety, predictability, higher-order aberrations and corneal biomechnical parameters after small-incision lenticule extraction (SMILE) and femtosecond lenticule extraction (FLEx). METHODS A systematic literature retrieval was conducted in Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library, up to October, 2015. The included studies were subject to a Meta-analysis. Comparison between SMILE and FLEx was measured as pooled odds ratio (OR) or weighted mean differences (WMD). Of 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to analyze data. RESULTS A total of seven studies were included. Firstly, there were no differences in uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA) 20/20 or better (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 0.69 to 2.69; P=0.37) and logMAR UDVA (WMD, -0.02; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.01; P=0.17) after SMILE versus FLEx. We found no differences in corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA) unchanged (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.46 to 2.11; P=0.97) and logMAR CDVA (WMD, -0.00; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.01; P=0.90) either. Secondly, we found no differences in refraction within ±1.00 D (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.13 to 7.28; P=0.99) and ±0.50 D (OR, 1.62; 95% CI, 0.62 to 4.28; P=0.33) of target postoperatively. Thirdly, for higher-order aberrations, we found no differences in the total higher-order aberrations (WMD, -0.04; 95% CI, -0.09 to 0.01; P=0.14), coma (WMD, -0.04; 95% CI, -0.09 to 0.01; P=0.11), spherical (WMD, 0.01; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.03; P=0.60) and trefoil (WMD, -0.00; 95% CI, -0.04 to 0.03; P=0.76). Furthermore, for corneal biomechanical parameters, we also found no differences (WMD, 0.08; 95% CI, -0.17 to 0.33; P=0.54) after SMILE versus FLEx. CONCLUSION There are no statistically differences in efficacy, safety, predictability, higher-order aberrations and corneal biomechnical parameters postoperative between SMILE and FLEx. PMID:27275436

  12. A change in the trend in dosulepin usage following the introduction of a prescribing indicator but not after two national safety warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deslandes, P N; Jenkins, K S L; Haines, K E; Hutchings, S; Cannings-John, R; Lewis, T L; Bracchi, R C; Routledge, P A

    2016-04-01

    The tricyclic antidepressant dosulepin has been associated with an increased risk of toxicity in overdose compared with other antidepressants. In the UK, the MHRA and NICE have issued advice on the prescribing of dosulepin, and a National Prescribing Indicator (NPI) to monitor usage was introduced in Wales in 2011. The aim of this study was to assess whether trends in dosulepin usage in Wales and NE England changed following the two pieces of safety guidance and the introduction of the National Prescribing Indicator in Wales. Primary care dosulepin usage in the 12 months prior to and following MHRA safety advice (in 2007), NICE guideline CG90 (in 2009) and the introduction of the NPI (in 2011) was obtained. Usage was measured using defined daily doses (DDDs) per 1000 prescribing units (PUs). The trends in the 12 months prior to and following the introduction of prescribing advice and the NPI were compared using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. In Wales, the trend in dosulepin usage did not change significantly prior to and following the MHRA advice: -0·18 and -0·43 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·07), or prior to and following NICE CG90: -0·30 and -0·49 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·35). In the 12 months prior to and following the introduction of the NPI, the trend was -0·45 and -0·98 DDDs/1000PUs per month, respectively (P = 0·001). In NE England, the trend did not alter significantly following the NICE advice or the introduction of the NPI in Wales. The trend in dosulepin usage in Wales altered significantly following the introduction of the NPI, but not after the other prescribing advice. This association, coupled with the absence of a significant change in NE England over the same period, provided some evidence of the effectiveness of the NPI in prompting a change in prescribing behaviour in Wales. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Trends in pharmacy staff's perception of patient safety in Swedish community pharmacies after re-regulation of conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia; Nordén-Hägg, Annika

    2014-10-01

    All changes in the regulation of pharmacies have an impact on the work carried out in pharmacies and also on patient safety, regardless of whether this is the intention or not. To compare staff apprehension regarding some aspects of patient safety and quality in community pharmacies prior to and after the 2009 changes in regulation of the Swedish community pharmacy market. Questionnaires targeted at pharmacy staff before and after the changes in regulation (in 2008, 2011/12, and 2012/13 respectively) used four identical items, making comparisons of some aspects possible. All four items demonstrated a significant decrease in the first survey after the changes as compared to before. In the second survey significant differences were found on the two items representing safety climate whereas the items representing team climate and management showed no significant differences. The comparison carried out in this study indicates a negative effect in Swedish community pharmacies on safety and quality issues, as experienced by pharmacy staff. It is recommended that the possible effects of healthcare reforms are assessed before implementation, in order to counteract conceivable decline in factors including patient safety and working conditions.

  14. Modelling deforestation trends in Costa Rica and predicting future forest sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Kayla; Sanchez, Arturo

    2017-04-01

    Deforestation in Costa Rica has historically varied between the original degradation of primary forest due to land-based industries, followed by secondary regrowth. The regeneration of forests largely came into effect with incentive based programs such as payments for ecosystem services, creation of large protected areas, and a new industry of ecotourism in the country. Given the changes that have occurred within the last 50 years from heavy deforestation pressures to regeneration patterns, and a correlation between deforestation and policy/economic influences, it is important to understand the historical changes that have occurred and how the forests will change in the future, which provides the objective of this study. Future projections are increasingly important given changes in the global socio-political structure, climatic change, and the ever increasing globalization of capitalistic endeavours. The trajectory of the forest in the country can also serve as a way to track both these global pressures on the natural landscape in Costa Rica, and as a proxy for how to manage deforestation in other similar political and geographic areas of the tropics. To determine the historical deforestation trends and link them to the different biogeophysical and socioeconomic variables, forest maps from 1960-2013 were used in the Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO) to create deforestation models for Costa Rica. Dinamica EGO is a cellular automata model which utilizes Bayesian statistics and expert opinion to replicate both patterns and quantities of land cover change over time with both static and dynamic variables. Additional legislative variables can be used to track how political pressures shift deforestation both spatially and temporally. The historical model was built and analyzed for changes in landscape metrics such as patch size and distance between 1960 and 2013. After validation of the model's ability to replicate patterns, first between 2005

  15. Developmental trends in auditory processing can provide early predictions of language acquisition in young infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chonchaiya, Weerasak; Tardif, Twila; Mai, Xiaoqin; Xu, Lin; Li, Mingyan; Kaciroti, Niko; Kileny, Paul R; Shao, Jie; Lozoff, Betsy

    2013-03-01

    Auditory processing capabilities at the subcortical level have been hypothesized to impact an individual's development of both language and reading abilities. The present study examined whether auditory processing capabilities relate to language development in healthy 9-month-old infants. Participants were 71 infants (31 boys and 40 girls) with both Auditory Brainstem Response (ABR) and language assessments. At 6 weeks and/or 9 months of age, the infants underwent ABR testing using both a standard hearing screening protocol with 30 dB clicks and a second protocol using click pairs separated by 8, 16, and 64-ms intervals presented at 80 dB. We evaluated the effects of interval duration on ABR latency and amplitude elicited by the second click. At 9 months, language development was assessed via parent report on the Chinese Communicative Development Inventory - Putonghua version (CCDI-P). Wave V latency z-scores of the 64-ms condition at 6 weeks showed strong direct relationships with Wave V latency in the same condition at 9 months. More importantly, shorter Wave V latencies at 9 months showed strong relationships with the CCDI-P composite consisting of phrases understood, gestures, and words produced. Likewise, infants who had greater decreases in Wave V latencies from 6 weeks to 9 months had higher CCDI-P composite scores. Females had higher language development scores and shorter Wave V latencies at both ages than males. Interestingly, when the ABR Wave V latencies at both ages were taken into account, the direct effects of gender on language disappeared. In conclusion, these results support the importance of low-level auditory processing capabilities for early language acquisition in a population of typically developing young infants. Moreover, the auditory brainstem response in this paradigm shows promise as an electrophysiological marker to predict individual differences in language development in young children. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. RepoTREND. The program package for the integrated long term safety analysis of final repository systems. Version 4.5 (State March 2016); RepoTREND. Das Programmpaket zur integrierten Langzeitsicherheitsanalyse von Endlagersystemen. Version 4.5 (Stand Maerz 2016)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiche, Tatiana

    2016-04-15

    The long-term safety analysis is the analysis of final repository behavior after closure includes the spreading of pollutants into the biosphere (mobilization and release of pollutants into the near field, radionuclide migration through the geosphere, radiation exposure in the biosphere) and the radiological consequences. The report describes the program package RepoTREND, the respective modules (near field, GeoTREND, BioTREND and probabilistic analyses), sequencing and postprocessing and the quality management.

  17. An Examination of Internet Filtering and Safety Policy Trends and Issues in South Carolina's K-12 Public Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicks, Mary E.

    2013-01-01

    School districts have implemented filtering and safety policies in response to legislative and social mandates to protect students from the proliferation of objectionable online content. Subject related literature suggests these policies are more restrictive than legal mandates require and are adversely affecting information access and…

  18. Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

    2014-10-01

    Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that

  19. Evaluating the road safety effects of a fuel cost increase measure by means of zonal crash prediction modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirdavani, Ali; Brijs, Tom; Bellemans, Tom; Kochan, Bruno; Wets, Geert

    2013-01-01

    Travel demand management (TDM) consists of a variety of policy measures that affect the transportation system's effectiveness by changing travel behavior. The primary objective to implement such TDM strategies is not to improve traffic safety, although their impact on traffic safety should not be neglected. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the traffic safety impact of conducting a fuel-cost increase scenario (i.e. increasing the fuel price by 20%) in Flanders, Belgium. Since TDM strategies are usually conducted at an aggregate level, crash prediction models (CPMs) should also be developed at a geographically aggregated level. Therefore zonal crash prediction models (ZCPMs) are considered to present the association between observed crashes in each zone and a set of predictor variables. To this end, an activity-based transportation model framework is applied to produce exposure metrics which will be used in prediction models. This allows us to conduct a more detailed and reliable assessment while TDM strategies are inherently modeled in the activity-based models unlike traditional models in which the impact of TDM strategies are assumed. The crash data used in this study consist of fatal and injury crashes observed between 2004 and 2007. The network and socio-demographic variables are also collected from other sources. In this study, different ZCPMs are developed to predict the number of injury crashes (NOCs) (disaggregated by different severity levels and crash types) for both the null and the fuel-cost increase scenario. The results show a considerable traffic safety benefit of conducting the fuel-cost increase scenario apart from its impact on the reduction of the total vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). A 20% increase in fuel price is predicted to reduce the annual VKT by 5.02 billion (11.57% of the total annual VKT in Flanders), which causes the total NOCs to decline by 2.83%. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P trend within the Northern County of Nimba. Case specific exponential increase was predicted for the first 2 years (2013-2014) with a geometric increase over the next 3 years (2015-2017) in Nimba County. This paper describes a translational application of the space-time distribution pattern of LF epidemics, 2008-2012 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

  1. Advances in refractive surgery: microkeratome and femtosecond laser flap creation in relation to safety, efficacy, predictability, and biomechanical stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stonecipher, Karl; Ignacio, Teresa S; Stonecipher, Megan

    2006-08-01

    Methods of flap creation have changed over the years from the evolution of the mechanical microkeratome to the introduction of the IntraLase femtosecond laser keratome, both of which have different mechanisms of action to create corneal resections. Previous studies report the advantages and disadvantages of the mechanical microkeratome and the IntraLase femtosecond laser. The critical components in laser in-situ keratomileusis surgery remain the same, however: safety, efficiency, predictability, and biomechanical stability. Keratoectasia and flap efficiency remain a constant safety concern in laser in-situ keratomileusis surgery. Unexpectedly thick flaps as well as variable thickness continue to be a concern with safety in relation to microkeratome technology. Epithelial preservation, flap complications, and newer issues such as Transient Light Sensitivity Syndrome are safety concerns of flap creation. Improved outcomes with regards to vision, induced astigmatism, induced higher-order aberrations, and enhancement rates are seen to favor predictability of femtosecond technologies over the microkeratome. Recent biomechanical studies show improved healing with femtosecond laser flap creation compared with blade-assisted flap creation. The aim of this review is to summarize the key components for both the microkeratome and the femtosecond laser and to update on the recent advances reported on these topics.

  2. Predicting the Drug Safety for Traditional Chinese Medicine through a Comparative Analysis of Withdrawn Drugs Using Pharmacological Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengzhu Xue

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As the major issue to limit the use of drugs, drug safety leads to the attrition or failure in clinical trials of drugs. Therefore, it would be more efficient to minimize therapeutic risks if it could be predicted before large-scale clinical trials. Here, we integrated a network topology analysis with cheminformatics measurements on drug information from the DrugBank database to detect the discrepancies between approved drugs and withdrawn drugs and give drug safety indications. Thus, 47 approved drugs were unfolded with higher similarity measurements to withdrawn ones by the same target and confirmed to be already withdrawn or discontinued in certain countries or regions in subsequent investigations. Accordingly, with the 2D chemical fingerprint similarity calculation as a medium, the method was applied to predict pharmacovigilance for natural products from an in-house traditional Chinese medicine (TCM database. Among them, Silibinin was highlighted for the high similarity to the withdrawn drug Plicamycin although it was regarded as a promising drug candidate with a lower toxicity in existing reports. In summary, the network approach integrated with cheminformatics could provide drug safety indications effectively, especially for compounds with unknown targets or mechanisms like natural products. It would be helpful for drug safety surveillance in all phases of drug development.

  3. Agenda Trending: Reciprocity and the Predictive Capacity of Social Networking Sites in Intermedia Agenda Setting across Topics over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Groshek

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter. Time-series analyses of the most prominent topics identify the extent to which traditional media sets the agenda for social media as well as reciprocal agenda-setting effects of social media topics entering traditional media agendas. In addition, this study examines social intermedia agenda setting topically and across time within social networking sites, and in so doing, adds a vital understanding of where traditional media, online uses, and social media content intersect around instances of focusing events, particularly elections. Findings identify core differences between certain traditional and social media agendas, but also within social media agendas that extend from uses examined here. Additional results further suggest important topical and event-oriented limitations upon the predictive capacit of social networking sites to shape traditional media agendas over time.

  4. Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patterson, Christopher C; Dahlquist, Gisela G; Gyürüs, Eva

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Eur...

  5. [New international initiatives to create systems of effective risk prediction and food safety].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efimochkinal, N R; Bagryantseva, E C; Dupouy, E C; Khotimchenko, S A; Permyakov, E V; Sheveleva, S A; Arnautov, O V

    2016-01-01

    Ensuring food safety is one of the most important problems that is directly related to health protection of the population. The problem is particularly relevant on aglobalscale because ofincreasingnumberoffood-borne diseases andimportance of the health consequence early detection. In accordance with the position of the Codex Alimentarius Commission, food safety concept also includes quality. In this case, creation of the national, supranational and international early warning systems related to the food safety, designed with the purpose to prevent or minimize risks on different stages of the food value chain in various countries, regions and climate zones specific to national nutrition and lifestyle in different groups of population, gains particular importance. The article describes the principles and working examples of international, supranational and national food safety early warning systems. Great importance is given to the hazards of microbial origin - emergent pathogens. Example of the rapid reaction to the appearance of cases, related to the melanin presence in infant formula, are presented. Analysis of the current food safety and quality control system in Russian Federation shows that main improvements are mostly related to the development of the efficient monitoring, diagnostics and rapid alert procedures forfood safety on interregional and international levels that will allow to estimate real contamination of food with the most dangerous pathogens, chemical and biological contaminants, and the development of the electronic database and scientifically proved algorithms for food safety and quality management for targeted prevention activities against existing and emerging microbiological and other etiology risks, and public health protection.

  6. Optimizing Safety, Predictability, and Aesthetics in Direct to Implant Immediate Breast Reconstruction: Evolution of Surgical Technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalus, Ram; Dixon Swartz, Jennifer; Metzger, Sarah Cristina

    2016-06-01

    Although immediate breast reconstruction with the insertion of a permanent prosthesis rather than a tissue expander (direct to implant [DTI]) has become gradually more preferred and requested by patients, the technique has yet to be fully embraced by most plastic surgeons, presumably due to concerns of patient safety and perceived higher complication and revision rates, despite not being supported by the literature. The authors review the senior author's protocol for patient selection and surgical technique in DTI reconstructions. A simple device is introduced which adds predictability and control in determining the inset suture line for the acellular dermal matrix and thus the position of the inframammary fold and lateral mammary fold, resulting in improved aesthetic outcomes, reduced complications, and reduced reoperation rates. A retrospective review of our one surgeon experience with 134 DTI breast reconstructions in 77 patients between 2006 and 2015 is presented. The series is further subdivided into 74 reconstructions in 43 patients in whom their reconstruction was performed before the use of a patented 2-dimensional (2-D) template, and 60 reconstructions in 34 patients in whom the template was used. The overall complication rate requiring reoperation in the first 54 reconstructions was 50% versus 15% in the last 84. Failure of the reconstruction, defined by explantation, occurred in 11 of 74 reconstructions (14.9%) before the use of 2-D templates, and in 5 of 60 reconstructions (8.3%) in which templates were used, representing a 44% reduction. The revision rate specifically for implant malposition dropped from 18.6% before the use of templates to 2.9% after the incorporation of templates. Fifty-three reconstructions in 33 patients (40%) had no complications and no reoperations, correctly described as "one and done." Direct to implant reconstruction can be technically more demanding and exacting than 2-stage expander/implant reconstructions. A review of this

  7. Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2006-01-01

    their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

  8. Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patterson, Christopher C; Dahlquist, Gisela G; Gyürüs, Eva

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes...... in European centres, and thereby predict the future burden of childhood diabetes in Europe. METHODS: 20 population-based EURODIAB registers in 17 countries registered 29 311 new cases of type 1 diabetes, diagnosed in children before their 15th birthday during a 15-year period, 1989-2003. Age-specific log...... distribution across age-groups than at present (29%, 37%, and 34%, respectively). Prevalence under age 15 years is predicted to rise from 94 000 in 2005, to 160 000 in 2020. INTERPRETATION: If present trends continue, doubling of new cases of type 1 diabetes in European children younger than 5 years...

  9. Development of associations and kinetic models for microbiological data to be used in comprehensive food safety prediction software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halder, Amit; Black, D Glenn; Davidson, P Michael; Datta, Ashim

    2010-08-01

    The objective of this study was to use an existing database of food products and their associated processes, link it with a list of the foodborne pathogenic microorganisms associated with those products and finally identify growth and inactivation kinetic parameters associated with those pathogens. The database was to be used as a part of the development of comprehensive software which could predict food safety and quality for any food product. The main issues in building such a predictive system included selection of predictive models, associations of different food types with pathogens (as determined from outbreak histories), and variability in data from different experiments. More than 1000 data sets from published literature were analyzed and grouped according to microorganisms and food types. Final grouping of data consisted of the 8 most prevalent pathogens for 14 different food groups, covering all of the foods (>7000) listed in the USDA Natl. Nutrient Database. Data for each group were analyzed in terms of 1st-order inactivation, 1st-order growth, and sigmoidal growth models, and their kinetic response for growth and inactivation as a function of temperature were reported. Means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for prediction equations. The primary advantage in obtaining group-specific kinetic data is the ability to extend microbiological growth and death simulation to a large array of product and process possibilities, while still being reasonably accurate. Such simulation capability could provide vital ''what if'' scenarios for industry, Extension, and academia in food safety.

  10. Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanie K. Moore; Nathan J. Mantua; Barbara M. Hickey; Vera L. Trainer

    2009-01-01

    Temporal and spatial trends in paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in Puget Sound shellfish and their relationships with climate are investigated using long-term monitoring data since 1957. Data are selected for trend analyses based on the sensitivity of shellfish species to PSTs and their depuration rates, and the frequency of sample collection at individual sites....

  11. Evaluating the impact of bike network indicators on cyclist safety using macro-level collision prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osama, Ahmed; Sayed, Tarek

    2016-12-01

    Many cities worldwide are recognizing the important role that cycling plays in creating green and livable communities. However, vulnerable road users such as cyclists are usually subjected to an elevated level of injury risk which discourages many road users to cycle. This paper studies cyclist-vehicle collisions at 134 traffic analysis zones in the city of Vancouver to assess the impact of bike network structure on cyclist safety. Several network indicators were developed using Graph theory and their effect on cyclist safety was investigated. The indicators included measures of connectivity, directness, and topography of the bike network. The study developed several macro-level (zonal) collision prediction models that explicitly incorporated bike network indicators as explanatory variables. As well, the models incorporated the actual cyclist exposure (bike kilometers travelled) as opposed to relying on proxies such as population or bike network length. The macro-level collision prediction models were developed using generalized linear regression and full Bayesian techniques, with and without spatial effects. The models showed that cyclist collisions were positively associated with bike and vehicle exposure. The exponents of the exposure variables were less than one which supports the "safety in numbers" hypothesis. Moreover, the models showed positive associations between cyclist collisions and the bike network connectivity and linearity indicators. In contrast, negative associations were found between cyclist collisions and the bike network continuity and topography indicators. The spatial effects were statistically significant in all of the developed models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Worst case prediction of additives migration from polystyrene for food safety purposes: a model update

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinez Lopez, Brais; Gontard, Nathalie; Peyron, Stephane

    2017-01-01

    A reliable prediction of migration levels of plastic additives into food requires a robust estimation of diffusivity. Predictive modelling of diffusivity as recommended by the EU commission is carried out using a semi-empirical equation that relies on two polymer-dependent parameters. These param......A reliable prediction of migration levels of plastic additives into food requires a robust estimation of diffusivity. Predictive modelling of diffusivity as recommended by the EU commission is carried out using a semi-empirical equation that relies on two polymer-dependent parameters...

  13. Predicting workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions using SecureFit®: Further support for integrative models of workplace safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Matthew; Delgado, Kristin; Lawrence, Amie; Kung, Mavis; Tristan, Esteban

    2017-06-01

    A growing body of applied research has identified certain psychological traits that are predictive of worker safety. However, most of these studies suffer from an overreliance on common method bias caused by self-report measures of both: (a) personal factors such as personality traits; and (b) outcomes such as safety behaviors and injuries. This study utilized archival data from 796 employees at a large U.S. automobile manufacturer. Data were gathered on a pre-employment assessment, SecureFit®, that measured key personality characteristics such as conscientiousness, locus of control, and risk taking. In addition, objective measures of workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions were also gathered. The results indicated that disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims were strongly correlated. It also demonstrated that the pre-employment assessment was able to predict both disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims up to 12months in the future. Screening out just 8% of the applicant sample using the assessment would have resulted in a 35% reduction in disciplinary actions and 46% in workers' compensation claims, respectively. The study found a very strong relationship between counterproductive work behaviors (CWBs), such as not following rules, and workers' compensation claims. It also found a strong relationship between a combination of personality traits that have been shown to be associated with both variables, although the current study was able to demonstrate that relationship with objective measure of both variables. Individuals who receive disciplinary actions for things such as not following rules, not coming to work on time, etc. are significantly more likely to also be involved in serious safety incidents, and vice versa. Identifying those individuals early on in the hiring process and screening them out can significantly reduce the number of CWBs as well as workers' compensation claims. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and

  14. Predicting the indicators of the safety performance monitoring after implementation of integrated management system (IMS in a combined cycle power plant in Yazd city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Laal

    2015-07-01

    .Conclusion: Findings show that Cubic regression can be an appropriate to olforinvestigating the indicators trends and for their predictionin planning and monitoring the performance ofsafety unitso that the decision-making for determining the priority of organizations’ safety programs would be facilitated.

  15. Predicting of trend of hemoglobin a1c in type 2 diabetes: a longitudinal linear mixed model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazemi, Elahe; Hosseini, Seyed Mohsen; Bahrampour, Abbass; Faghihimani, Elham; Amini, Masood

    2014-10-01

    There are some evidences that control the blood sugar decreasing the risk of diabetes complications, and even fatal. There are so many studies, but they are mostly cross-sectional and ignore the trend and hence it is necessary to implement a longitudinal study. The aim of this prospective study is to find the trend of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) over time and the associative factors on it. Participants of this longitudinal study were 3440 eligible diabetes patients referred to Isfahan Endocrine and Metabolism Research Center during 2000-2012 who are measured 2-40 times. A linear mixed model was applied to determine the association between HbA1c and variables, including lipids, systolic, diastolic blood pressure and complications such as nephropathy, and retinopathy. Furthermore, the effect of mentioned variables on trend of HbA1c was determined. The fitted model showed total cholesterol, retinopathy, and the method of therapy including oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs) plus insulin and insulin therapy decreased the trend of HbA1c and high-density lipoprotein, weight, hyperlipidemia and the method of therapy including diet, and OADs increased the trend of HbA1c. The present study shows that regular visits of diabetic patients as well as controlling blood pressure, lipid profile, and weight loss can improve the trend of HbA1c levels during the time.

  16. Trends in internet search activity, media coverage, and patient-centered health information after the FDA safety communications on surgical mesh for pelvic organ prolapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Benjamin V; Forde, James C; Levit, Valerie B; Lee, Richard K; Te, Alexis E; Chughtai, Bilal

    2016-11-01

    In July 2011, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a safety communication regarding serious complications associated with surgical mesh for pelvic organ prolapse, prompting increased media and public attention. This study sought to analyze internet search activity and news article volume after this FDA warning and to evaluate the quality of websites providing patient-centered information. Google Trends™ was utilized to evaluate search engine trends for the term "pelvic organ prolapse" and associated terms between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2014. Google News™ was utilized to quantify the number of news articles annually under the term "pelvic organ prolapse." The search results for the term "pelvic organ prolapse" were assessed for quality using the Health On the Net Foundation (HON) certification. There was a significant increase in search activity from 37.42 in 2010 to 57.75 in 2011, at the time of the FDA communication (p = 0.021). No other annual interval had a statistically significant increase in search activity. The single highest monthly search activity, given the value of 100, was August 2011, immediately following the July 2011 notification, with the next highest value being 98 in July 2011. Linear regression analysis of news articles per year since the FDA communication revealed r 2  = 0.88, with a coefficient of 186. Quality assessment demonstrated that 42 % of websites were HON-certified, with .gov sites providing the highest quality information. Although the 2011 FDA safety communication on surgical mesh was associated with increased public and media attention, the quality of relevant health information on the internet remains of poor quality. Future quality assurance measures may be critical in enabling patients to play active roles in their own healthcare.

  17. A gradient of childhood self-control predicts health, wealth, and public safety

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Terrie E. Moffitt; Louise Arseneault; Daniel Belsky; Nigel Dickson; Robert J. Hancox; HonaLee Harrington; Renate Houts; Richie Poulton; Brent W. Roberts; Stephen Ross; Malcolm R. Sears; W. Murray Thomson; Avshalom Caspi; James J. Heckman

    2011-01-01

    ...? Following a cohort of 1,000 children from birth to the age of 32 y, we show that childhood self-control predicts physical health, substance dependence, personal finances, and criminal offending...

  18. Predictive Factors for Efficacy and Safety of Prophylactic Theophylline for Extubation in Infants with Apnea of Prematurity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomoko Kondo

    Full Text Available This study aimed to evaluate predictive factors involved in efficacy and safety in Japanese infants who received theophylline therapy to prevent apnea of prematurity (AOP after weaning from mechanical ventilation.We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of infants who were administered intravenous aminophylline (theophylline ethylenediamine for AOP at the neonatal intensive care unit, Kagoshima University Hospital, Japan, between January 2009 and June 2013.A total of 100 infants were evaluated as two separate groups in terms of efficacy and safety of theophylline. Sixty-seven (67.0% infants had effective theophylline therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gestational age at birth was significant, with an odds ratio of 0.59 (p < 0.001. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the cut-off value was 31.1 weeks old for predicting the efficacy of theophylline (specificity, 66.7%; sensitivity, 86.6%; p < 0.001; area under the curve, 0.750; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.74. Adverse reactions were identified in 21 (21.0% infants. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the number of days of theophylline administration from birth was associated with an increased risk of adverse reactions after theophylline administration (p = 0.01.Physicians need to be aware of the possibility that theophylline fails to produce therapeutic effects for extubation in infants aged less than 31.1 weeks old, and adverse reactions can easily develop when theophylline is administered soon after birth.

  19. Probabilistic safety assessment of WWER440 reactors prediction, quantification and management of the risk

    CERN Document Server

    Kovacs, Zoltan

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this book is to summarize probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants with WWER440 reactors and  demonstrate that the plants are safe enough for producing energy even in light of the Fukushima accident. The book examines level 1 and 2 full power, low power and shutdown PSA, and summarizes the author's experience gained during the last 35 years in this area. It provides useful examples taken from PSA training courses the author has lectured and organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Such training courses were organised in Argonne National Laboratory (

  20. Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, N K; Robey, I F; Gaffney, E A; Gillies, R J; Gatenby, R A; Maini, P K

    2012-03-27

    Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1-7.2. Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1-7.2 is most promising.

  1. Comprehensive summary--Predict-IV : A systems toxicology approach to improve pharmaceutical drug safety testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mueller, Stefan O; Dekant, Wolfgang; Jennings, Paul; Testai, Emanuela; Bois, Frederic Y

    2015-01-01

    This special issue of Toxicology in Vitro is dedicated to disseminating the results of the EU-funded collaborative project "Profiling the toxicity of new drugs: a non animal-based approach integrating toxicodynamics and biokinetics" (Predict-IV; Grant 202222). The project's overall aim was to

  2. Prediction by pharmacogenetics of safety and efficacy of non-steroidal anti- inflammatory drugs: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollason, Victoria; Samer, Caroline Flora; Daali, Youssef; Desmeules, Jules Alexandre

    2014-03-01

    Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are the most frequently used drugs, either on prescription or over-thecounter (OTC). Their daily dosage is based on randomised controlled trials and an empirical clinical assessment of their efficacy and toxicity that allows dose adjustment. The individual response can however be altered by environmental and genetic pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic factors. This review summarizes the available pharmacogenetic data that explains part of the variability in response and occurrence of adverse drug reactions to NSAIDs treatment, with a thorough focus on CYP2C9, uridine diphosphate glucuronosyltransferases (UGTs) and cyclooxygenases (COX1 and COX2). Other polymorphisms that are currently being studied and could also explain the interindividual variability in the efficacy and safety of NSAIDs will also be considered.

  3. Development of the SaFETy Score: A Clinical Screening Tool for Predicting Future Firearm Violence Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstick, Jason E; Carter, Patrick M; Walton, Maureen A; Dahlberg, Linda L; Sumner, Steven A; Zimmerman, Marc A; Cunningham, Rebecca M

    2017-05-16

    Interpersonal firearm violence among youth is a substantial public health problem, and emergency department (ED) physicians require a clinical screening tool to identify high-risk youth. To derive a clinically feasible risk index for firearm violence. 24-month prospective cohort study. Urban, level 1 ED. Substance-using youths, aged 14 to 24 years, seeking ED care for an assault-related injury and a proportionately sampled group of non-assault-injured youth enrolled from September 2009 through December 2011. Firearm violence (victimization/perpetration) and validated questionnaire items. A total of 599 youths were enrolled, and presence/absence of future firearm violence during follow-up could be ascertained in 483 (52.2% were positive). The sample was randomly split into training (75%) and post-score-construction validation (25%) sets. Using elastic-net penalized logistic regression, 118 baseline predictors were jointly analyzed; the most predictive variables fell predominantly into 4 domains: violence victimization, community exposure, peer influences, and fighting. By selection of 1 item from each domain, the 10-point SaFETy (Serious fighting, Friend weapon carrying, community Environment, and firearm Threats) score was derived. SaFETy was associated with firearm violence in the validation set (odds ratio [OR], 1.47 [95% CI, 1.23 to 1.79]); this association remained (OR, 1.44 [CI, 1.20 to 1.76]) after adjustment for reason for ED visit. In 5 risk strata observed in the training data, firearm violence rates in the validation set were 18.2% (2 of 11), 40.0% (18 of 45), 55.8% (24 of 43), 81.3% (13 of 16), and 100.0% (6 of 6), respectively. The study was conducted in a single ED and involved substance-using youths. SaFETy was not externally validated. The SaFETy score is a 4-item score based on clinically feasible questionnaire items and is associated with firearm violence. Although broader validation is required, SaFETy shows potential to guide resource allocation

  4. Postoperative Efficacy, Predictability, Safety, and Visual Quality of Laser Corneal Refractive Surgery: A Network Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Daizong; McAlinden, Colm; Flitcroft, Ian; Tu, Ruixue; Wang, Qinmei; Alió, Jorge; Marshall, John; Huang, Yingying; Song, Benhao; Hu, Liang; Zhao, Yune; Zhu, Senmiao; Gao, Rongrong; Bao, Fangjun; Yu, Ayong; Yu, Ye; Lian, Hengli; Huang, Jinhai

    2017-06-01

    To compare the postoperative efficacy, predictability, safety, and visual quality of all major forms of laser corneal refractive surgeries for correcting myopia. Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and the US trial registry was conducted up to November 2015. Randomized controlled trials (RCT) reporting in accordance with the eligibility criteria were included in this review. We performed a Bayesian random-effects network meta-analysis. Forty-eight RCTs were identified. For efficacy (uncorrected visual acuity [UCVA]), there were no statistically significant differences between any pair of treatments analyzed. The SUCRA (surface under the cumulative ranking curve) ranking (from best to worst) was femtosecond-based laser in situ keratomileusis (FS-LASIK), LASIK, small-incision lenticule extraction, femtosecond lenticule extraction (FLEx), photorefractive keratectomy (PRK), laser epithelial keratomileusis (LASEK), epipolis (Epi)-LASIK, transepithelial PRK (T-PRK). For predictability (refractive spherical equivalent [SE]), a statistically significant difference was found when FS-LASIK was compared with LASIK (odds ratio [OR] 2.29, 95% credible interval [CrI] 1.20-4.14), PRK (OR 2.16, 95% CrI 1.15-4.03), LASEK (OR 2.09, 95% CrI 1.08-4.55), and Epi-LASIK (OR 2.74, 95% CrI 1.11-6.20). The SUCRA ranking (from best to worst) was FS-LASIK, T-PRK, LASEK, PRK, LASIK, Epi-LASIK. There were no statistically significant differences in the safety (best spectacle-corrected visual acuity) comparisons. For both postoperative higher-order aberrations (HOAs) and contrast sensitivity (CS), there were no statistically significant differences between any pair of treatments analyzed. The SUCRA ranking results show that some corneal surface ablation techniques (PRK and LASEK) rank highest. This network meta-analysis shows that there were no statistically significant differences in either visual outcomes (efficacy and safety) or visual

  5. Predicting On-Road Driving Performance and Safety in Cognitively Impaired Older Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones Ross, Rachel W; Scialfa, Charles T; Cordazzo, Sheila T D

    2015-11-01

    To evaluate the ability to predict on-road driving in cognitively impaired older drivers. Cross-sectional observational study. Laboratory tests and on-road assessment. Drivers with cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination score driving assessment. The best prediction of passing or failing the on-road test was a combination of the HPT, leg strength, visual acuity, visual search and working memory, and number of medications taken (Nagelkerke coefficient of determination = 0.40). The sensitivity of the model was 71%, and the specificity was 75%. Further research is required to determine how these tests may be used or combined with other data (e.g., medical history) to assess fitness to drive of cognitively impaired older drivers. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

  6. Early trough levels and antibodies to infliximab predict safety and success of reinitiation of infliximab therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baert, Filip; Drobne, David; Gils, Ann; Vande Casteele, Niels; Hauenstein, Scott; Singh, Sharat; Lockton, Steve; Rutgeerts, Paul; Vermeire, Séverine

    2014-09-01

    Few agents are available for the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases, and patients frequently become unresponsive to biologics. We investigated the feasibility of reinitiating infliximab therapy for patients who previously received only episodic therapy with, lost response to, or had infusion reactions to infliximab. We also aimed to identify factors associated with the success and safety of restarting infliximab, such as antibodies to infliximab and trough levels of the drug. From the inflammatory bowel disease biobank, we identified 128 consecutive patients (105 patients with Crohn's disease, 23 patients with ulcerative colitis) who restarted infliximab after a median 15-month discontinuation (range, 6-125 mo; 28 patients for loss of response or infusion reactions, 100 patients for remission or pregnancy). We also analyzed serum samples that had been collected during the first period of infliximab therapy (T-1), when therapy was reinitiated (T0), and at later time points (T+1, T+2) for trough levels and antibodies to infliximab. We investigated correlations among response to treatment, infusion reactions, treatment modalities, trough levels, and antibodies to infliximab. Reinitiation of infliximab therapy produced a response in 84.5% of patients at week 14, 70% of patients at 1 year, and in 61% of patients at more than 4 years. Fifteen patients had acute infusion reactions and 10 patients had delayed infusion reactions. The absence of antibodies to infliximab at T+1 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.026-0.74; P = .021) and reinitiation with concomitant immunomodulator therapy were associated with short-term responses (HR, 6.0; 95% CI, 1.3-27; P = .019). Pregnancy or remission as reason for discontinuation (HR, 2.70; 95% CI, 1.09-6.67; P = .033) and higher trough levels at T+1 (HR, 2.94; 95% CI, 1.18-7.69; P = .021) were associated with long-term response. Undetectable antibodies to infliximab at T+1 were associated with the safety

  7. Agenda Trending: Reciprocity and the Predictive Capacity of Social Networking Sites in Intermedia Agenda Setting across Topics over Time

    OpenAIRE

    Jacob Groshek; Megan Clough Groshek

    2013-01-01

    In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

  8. Predictive Factors for Efficacy and Safety of Prophylactic Theophylline for Extubation in Infants with Apnea of Prematurity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondo, Tomoko; Kondo, Yuki; Orita, Yuji; Mitarai, Fumi; Ishitsuka, Yoichi; Irikura, Mitsuru; Shimodozono, Yoshihiro; Douchi, Tsutomu; Takeda, Yasuo; Irie, Tetsumi

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed to evaluate predictive factors involved in efficacy and safety in Japanese infants who received theophylline therapy to prevent apnea of prematurity (AOP) after weaning from mechanical ventilation. We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of infants who were administered intravenous aminophylline (theophylline ethylenediamine) for AOP at the neonatal intensive care unit, Kagoshima University Hospital, Japan, between January 2009 and June 2013. A total of 100 infants were evaluated as two separate groups in terms of efficacy and safety of theophylline. Sixty-seven (67.0%) infants had effective theophylline therapy. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that gestational age at birth was significant, with an odds ratio of 0.59 (p theophylline (specificity, 66.7%; sensitivity, 86.6%; p Adverse reactions were identified in 21 (21.0%) infants. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the number of days of theophylline administration from birth was associated with an increased risk of adverse reactions after theophylline administration (p = 0.01). Physicians need to be aware of the possibility that theophylline fails to produce therapeutic effects for extubation in infants aged less than 31.1 weeks old, and adverse reactions can easily develop when theophylline is administered soon after birth.

  9. Application of the adaptive-predictive controllers to plant safety surveillance utilizing on-line Plant Analyzer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabic, S

    1987-10-01

    The plant safety surveillance concept described in this report continuously provides information that is not accessible to measurements and which, in conjunction with the existing plant data, offers promise for a thorough understanding of the plant status and of the causes of upsets when they occur. The concept is based on using the Plant Analyzer Controller, which works in tandem with the Plant Analyzer, to control inputs to the Plant Analyzer so that its outputs continuously track the selected plant measurements. The basic premise is that, if the key plant measurements are being well reproduced (tracked) by the Plant Analyzer, the wealth of information which is being continuously computed (most of which cannot be measured), can be trusted and used to ascertain the plant status. Research results presented in this report show that the act of tracking immediately uncovers upset conditions which are, otherwise, either not amenable to measurements or take a long time to diagnose using conventional methods. The Plant Analyzer (a systems safety code capable of running in real time on a plant computer), and the Plant Analyzer Controller, would be used ''on-line'', i.e., connected to the plant computer which provides information on plant measurements. Their outputs would be graphically displayed in a comprehensive and easily understood manner. The version of the Plant Analyzer Controller described in this report is based on the Adaptive-Predictive, digital control theory. 154 figs.

  10. Effectiveness of HBV vaccination in infants and prediction of HBV prevalence trend under new vaccination plan: findings of a large-scale investigation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-gui Yang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV infection remains a severe public health problem. Investigating its prevalence and trends is essential to prevention. METHODS: To evaluate the effectiveness of HBV vaccination under the 1992 Intervention Program for infants and predicted HBV prevalence trends under the 2011 Program for all ages. We conducted a community-based investigation of 761,544 residents of 12 counties in Zhejiang Province selected according to their location, population density, and economic development. The HBV prevalence trends were predicted by a time-shifting approach. HBV surface antigen (HBsAg and alanine amino transferase (ALT were determined. RESULTS: Of the 761,544 persons screened for HBsAg, 54,132 were positive (adjusted carrier rate 6.13%; 9,455 had both elevated ALT and a positive HBsAg test (standardized rate 1.18%. The standardized HBsAg carrier rate for persons aged ≤20 years was 1.51%. Key factors influencing HBV infection were sex, age, family history, drinking, smoking, employment as a migrant worker, and occupation. With the vaccination program implemented in 2011, we predict that by 2020, the HBsAg carrier rate will be 5.27% and that for individuals aged ≤34 years will reach the 2% upper limit of low prevalence according to the WHO criteria, with a standardized rate of 1.86%. CONCLUSIONS: The national HBV vaccination program for infants implemented in 1992 has greatly reduced the prevalence of HBV infection. The 2011 program is likely to reduce HBV infection in Zhejiang Province to a low moderate prevalence, and perinatal transmission is expected to be controlled by 2020.

  11. Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinomas with Central Bile Duct Invasion: Safety, Prognosis, and Predictive Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Jin Woo; Chung, Jin Wook, E-mail: chungjw@snu.ac.kr [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Radiology (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Yun Ku [VHS Medical Center, Department of Radiology (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Internal Medicine (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hyo-Cheol; Jae, Hwan Jun [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Radiology (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    PurposeTo assess the safety and effectiveness of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of patients who have hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) with central bile duct invasion.Materials and MethodsThe institutional review board approved this retrospective study and waived informed consent. Fifty-three patients, initially treated with TACE for HCCs with central bile duct invasion from January 1999 to September 2012, were included. Clinical, laboratory, and survival data were reviewed. Complications and hospitalization length were evaluated using the χ{sup 2} test, Fisher’s exact test, and logistic regression analysis. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method with log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.ResultsSeven patients experienced TACE-related major complications (severe post-embolization syndrome in 3, non-fatal sepsis in 3, and secondary bacterial peritonitis in 1). The overall major complication rate was 13.2 %, but there were no permanent adverse sequelae or deaths within 30 days. Serum total bilirubin ≥3.0 mg/dL was the only significant risk factor for long hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) = 4.341, p = .022]. The median survival was 12.2 months. Extrahepatic metastasis (HR = 6.145, p < .001), international normalized ratio (PT-INR) ≥1.20 (HR = 4.564, p < .001), vascular invasion (HR = 3.484, p = .001), and intermediate tumor enhancement (HR = 2.417, p = .019) were significantly associated with shorter survival.ConclusionTACE can be a safe and effective treatment for patients who have HCCs with central bile duct invasion. In particular, long-term survival can be expected if patients have strongly enhancing tumors without poor prognostic factors such as extrahepatic metastasis, PT-INR prolongation, and vascular invasion.

  12. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) and ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), 2015. The European Union summary report on trends and sources of zoonoses, zoonotic agents and food-borne outbreaks in 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helwigh, Birgitte; Porsbo, Lone Jannok; Boysen, Louise

    This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of the zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2014 in 32 European countries (28 Member States (MS) and four non-MS). Campylobacteriosis was the most commonly re......, molluscs and products thereof’. The report further summarises trends and sources along the food chain of tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium bovis, Brucella, Trichinella, Echinococcus, Toxoplasma, rabies, Coxiella burnetii (Q fever), West Nile virus and tularaemia....

  13. An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses--Criticality (keff) Predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scaglione, John M [ORNL; Mueller, Don [ORNL; Wagner, John C [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    product LCE data to predict and verify individual biases for relevant minor actinides and fission products. This paper (1) provides a detailed description of the approach and its technical bases, (2) describes the application of the approach for representative pressurized water reactor and boiling water reactor safety analysis models to demonstrate its usage and applicability, (3) provides reference bias results based on the prerelease SCALE 6.1 code package and ENDF/B-VII nuclear cross-section data, and (4) provides recommendations for application of the results and methods to other code and data packages.

  14. Oral food challenge: safety, adherence to guidelines and predictive value of skin prick testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvani, Mauro; Berti, Irene; Fiocchi, Alessandro; Galli, Elena; Giorgio, Valentina; Martelli, Alberto; Miceli Sopo, Stefano; Panetta, Valentina

    2012-12-01

    The diagnostic gold standard of food allergy is the oral food challenge (OFC). Data on severe reactions and drug use during OFC are scarce. Our aims were (i) to investigate the prevalence and spectrum of reactions' severity during OFC and to assess drug use and epinephrine use in anaphylaxis due to OFC; (ii) to investigate the predictive value of the skin prick test wheal size for the outcome of OFCs. A retrospective charts review of children undergoing OFC at three Allergy Centres between January 2007 and December 2008 was performed. A total of 544 OFCs were analysed. Most frequently involved foods were egg, milk and wheat. 254/526 (48.3%) were positive. 167 (65.7%) were defined mild reactions, 81 (31.9%) multiorgan reactions and 6 (2.4%) anaphylaxis. No patients had cardiovascular symptoms. Data on treatments were available in 98.8% OFCs. In half of them antihistamines were used vs. 10% cases in which steroids were preferred. Six children (2.4%) were treated with Epinephrine inhalation, 5 (2%) with beta-2 inhalation, 8 (3.1%) with steroid inhalation. One child was treated with IM Epinephrine + IV fluids. Skin prick tests predictive cut-off were 9 mm for albumen, 7 for yolk, 13 for fresh albumen, 10 for α-lactalbumin, seven for casein, eight for β-lactoglobulin, 20 for cow's milk and 10 for fresh cow's milk. OFCs performed in controlled settings by expert Allergists are safe. Consideration needs to be given as to whether the Anaphylaxis' Guideline need to be modified when applied in treating patients undergoing OFC. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  15. Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

  16. Beyond statistical prediction: qualitative evaluation of the mechanisms by which pediatric early warning scores impact patient safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonafide, Christopher P; Roberts, Kathryn E; Weirich, Christine M; Paciotti, Breah; Tibbetts, Kathleen M; Keren, Ron; Barg, Frances K; Holmes, John H

    2013-05-01

    Early warning scores (EWSs) assign points to clinical observations and generate scores to help clinicians identify deteriorating patients. Despite marginal predictive accuracy in retrospective datasets and a paucity of studies prospectively evaluating their clinical effectiveness, pediatric EWSs are commonly used. To identify mechanisms beyond their statistical ability to predict deterioration by which physicians and nurses use EWSs to support their decision making. Qualitative study. A children's hospital with a rapid response system. Physicians and nurses who recently cared for patients with false-positive and false-negative EWSs (score failures). Semistructured interviews. Themes identified through grounded theory analysis. Four themes emerged among the 57 subjects interviewed: (1) The EWS facilitates safety by alerting physicians and nurses to concerning changes and prompting them to think critically about deterioration. (2) The EWS provides less-experienced nurses with vital sign reference ranges. (3) The EWS serves as evidence that empowers nurses to overcome barriers to escalating care. (4) In stable patients, those with baseline abnormal physiology, and those experiencing neurologic deterioration, the EWS may not be helpful. Although pediatric EWSs have marginal performance when applied to datasets, clinicians who recently experienced score failures still considered them valuable to identify deterioration and transcend hierarchical barriers. Combining an EWS with a clinician's judgment may result in a system better equipped to respond to deterioration than retrospective data analyses alone would suggest. Future research should seek to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of EWSs in real-world settings. Copyright © 2013 Society of Hospital Medicine.

  17. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in north-west region of India: A six-year ICTC-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyas Nitya

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for a couple of years. Objectives: The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. Materials and Methods: All the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence, pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied. As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S were performed on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were anticipated. Results: The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be 12.2% (386/3161, 11.8% (519/4381, 11.1% (649/5867, 13% (908/6983, 14% (1385/9911 and 17.34% (1756/10133 in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence without any plateau. Conclusion: Epidemiological studies should be carried out in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS.

  18. European Society of Biomechanics S.M. Perren Award 2008: using temporal trends of 3D bone micro-architecture to predict bone quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pauchard, Yves; Mattmann, Corinne; Kuhn, Andreas; Gasser, Jürg A; Boyd, Steven K

    2008-10-20

    In longitudinal studies, three-dimensional (3D) bone images are acquired at sequential time points essentially resulting in four-dimensional (4D) data for an individual. Based on the 4D data, we propose to calculate temporal trends and project these trends to estimate future bone architecture. Multiple consecutive deformation fields, calculated with Demons deformable image registration algorithm, were extrapolated on a voxel-by-voxel basis. Test data were from in vivo micro-computed tomography (microCT) scans of the proximal tibia of Wistar rats that were either ovariectomized (OVX; N=5) or sham operated (SHAM; N=6). Measurements performed at baseline, 4 and 8 weeks were the basis to predict the 12 week data. Predicted and actual 12 week data were compared using qualitative (3D rendering) and quantitative (geometry, morphology and micro-finite element, microFE) methods. The results indicated a voxel-based linear extrapolation scheme yielded mean geometric errors that were smaller than the voxel size of 15 microm. Key morphological parameters that were estimated included bone volume ratio (BV/TV; mean error 0.4%, maximum error 9%), trabecular thickness (Tb.Th; -1.1%, 11%), connectivity density (Conn.D; 9.0%, 18.5%) and the apparent Young's modulus (E(1); 6.0%, 32%). These data demonstrated a promising and novel approach for quantitatively capturing in vivo bone dynamics at the local trabecular level. The method does not require an a priori understanding of the diseases state, and can provide information about the trends of the bone remodeling process that may be used for better monitoring and treatment of diseases such as osteoporosis.

  19. Lumbar Lateral Interbody Fusion (LLIF): Comparative Effectiveness and Safety versus PLIF/TLIF and Predictive Factors Affecting LLIF Outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbagallo, Giuseppe M V; Albanese, Vincenzo; Raich, Annie L; Dettori, Joseph R; Sherry, Ned; Balsano, Massimo

    2014-04-01

    Systematic review. The surgical treatment of adult degenerative lumbar conditions remains controversial. Conventional techniques include posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) or transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF). A new direct approach known as lumbar lateral interbody fusion (LLIF), or extreme lateral interbody fusion (XLIF(®)) or direct lateral interbody fusion (DLIF), has been introduced. Objectives The objective of this article is to determine the comparative effectiveness and safety of LLIF, at one or more levels with or without instrumentation, versus PLIF or TLIF surgery in adults with lumbar degenerative conditions, and to determine which preoperative factors affect patient outcomes following LLIF surgery. A systematic review of the literature was performed using PubMed and bibliographies of key articles. Articles were reviewed by two independent reviewers based on predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Each article was evaluated using a predefined quality rating scheme. The search yielded 258 citations and the following met our inclusion criteria: three retrospective cohort studies (all using historical cohorts) (class of evidence [CoE] III) examining the comparative effectiveness and safety of LLIF/XLIF(®)/DLIF versus PLIF or TLIF surgery, and one prospective cohort study (CoE II) and two retrospective cohort studies (CoE III) assessing factors affecting patient outcome following LLIF. Patients in the LLIF group experienced less estimated blood loss and a lower mortality risk compared with the PLIF group. The number of levels treated and the preoperative diagnosis were significant predictors of perioperative or early complications in two studies. There is insufficient evidence of the comparative effectiveness of LLIF versus PLIF/TLIF surgery. There is low-quality evidence suggesting that LLIF surgery results in fewer complications or reoperations than PLIF/TLIF surgery. And there is insufficient evidence that any preoperative

  20. An Approach for Validating Actinide and Fission Product Burnup Credit Criticality Safety Analyses-Isotopic Composition Predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radulescu, Georgeta [ORNL; Gauld, Ian C [ORNL; Ilas, Germina [ORNL; Wagner, John C [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    The expanded use of burnup credit in the United States (U.S.) for storage and transport casks, particularly in the acceptance of credit for fission products, has been constrained by the availability of experimental fission product data to support code validation. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has noted that the rationale for restricting the Interim Staff Guidance on burnup credit for storage and transportation casks (ISG-8) to actinide-only is based largely on the lack of clear, definitive experiments that can be used to estimate the bias and uncertainty for computational analyses associated with using burnup credit. To address the issues of burnup credit criticality validation, the NRC initiated a project with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to (1) develop and establish a technically sound validation approach for commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) criticality safety evaluations based on best-available data and methods and (2) apply the approach for representative SNF storage and transport configurations/conditions to demonstrate its usage and applicability, as well as to provide reference bias results. The purpose of this paper is to describe the isotopic composition (depletion) validation approach and resulting observations and recommendations. Validation of the criticality calculations is addressed in a companion paper at this conference. For isotopic composition validation, the approach is to determine burnup-dependent bias and uncertainty in the effective neutron multiplication factor (keff) due to bias and uncertainty in isotopic predictions, via comparisons of isotopic composition predictions (calculated) and measured isotopic compositions from destructive radiochemical assay utilizing as much assay data as is available, and a best-estimate Monte Carlo based method. This paper (1) provides a detailed description of the burnup credit isotopic validation approach and its technical bases, (2) describes the application of the approach for

  1. The role of safety consciousness and occupational self-efficacy in predicting physical and psychological disorders among workers of industrial sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fariba kiani

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of this study was to determine the predictive power of physical and psychological disorders by occupational self-efficacy and safety consciousness among the staff. Methods: This research is a correlation study, in which 189 individuals of Isfahan Steel Company in 2011 and 2012 were selected based on the stratified random sampling method. The data were collected using questionnaire, containing questions regarding demographic characteristics, safety consciousness, occupational self-efficacy, and physical and psychological disorders. Later the data were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient and Multivariate regression analysis. Results: The results showed that both safety consciousness and occupational self-efficacy were significantly related to physical and psychological disorders (p<0.01. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that safety consciousness variable significantly predicted respectively, 9% and 17% of the variance of physical and psychological disorders (p<0.05. Also, occupational self-efficacy variable significantly predicted respectively, 21% and 12% of the variance of physical and psychological disorders (p<0.05. Conclusion: These results emphasize the importance of psychological variables in order to predict reporting physical and psychological disorders among workers.

  2. Prediction of flood abnormalities for improved public safety using a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aqil, M; Kita, I; Yano, A; Nishiyama, S

    2006-01-01

    It is widely accepted that an efficient flood alarm system may significantly improve public safety and mitigate economical damages caused by inundations. In this paper, a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy system is proposed to modify the traditional neuro-fuzzy model. This new method employs a rule-correction based algorithm to replace the error back propagation algorithm that is employed by the traditional neuro-fuzzy method in backward pass calculation. The final value obtained during the backward pass calculation using the rule-correction algorithm is then considered as a mapping function of the learning mechanism of the modified neuro-fuzzy system. Effectiveness of the proposed identification technique is demonstrated through a simulation study on the flood series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. The first four-year data (1987 to 1990) was used for model training/calibration, while the other remaining data (1991 to 2002) was used for testing the model. The number of antecedent flows that should be included in the input variables was determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation between the variables. Performance accuracy of the model was evaluated in terms of two statistical indices, i.e. mean average percentage error and root mean square error. The algorithm was developed in a decision support system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive nature, flexibility in approach, and evolving graphical features, and can be adopted for any similar situation to predict the streamflow. The main data processing includes gauging station selection, input generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction. This program enables users to process the flood data, to train/test the model using various input options, and to visualize results. The program code consists of a set of files, which can be modified as well to match other

  3. Trend road safety measures : international course on transportation and road engineering in developing countries. Two-year postgraduate Diploma and M.Sc. programme.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    1991-01-01

    This course focuses mainly on traffic and transport in developing countries, and deals primarily with matters of infrastructure. Road safety and road safety problems are closely related to the construction and operation of the road network. (See also C 1341 - C1346).

  4. Accuracy of prostate biopsies for predicting Gleason score in radical prostatectomy specimens: nationwide trends 2000-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danneman, Daniela; Drevin, Linda; Delahunt, Brett; Samaratunga, Hemamali; Robinson, David; Bratt, Ola; Loeb, Stacy; Stattin, Pär; Egevad, Lars

    2017-01-01

    To investigate how well the Gleason score in diagnostic needle biopsies predicted the Gleason score in a subsequent radical prostatectomy (RP) specimen before and after the 2005 International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) revision of Gleason grading, and if the recently proposed ISUP grades 1-5 (corresponding to Gleason scores 6, 3 + 4, 4 + 3, 8 and 9-10) better predict the RP grade. All prostate cancers diagnosed in Sweden are reported to the National Prostate Cancer Register (NPCR). We analysed the Gleason scores and ISUP grades from the diagnostic biopsies and the RP specimens in 15 598 men in the NPCR who: were diagnosed between 2000 and 2012 with clinical stage T1-2 M0/X prostate cancer on needle biopsy; were aged ≤70 years; had serum PSA concentration of Gleason score increased from 55 to 68% between 2000 and 2012. Most of the increase occurred before 2005 (nine percentage points; P Gleason score and year of diagnosis in a multivariable analysis, the prediction of RP Gleason score decreased over time (odds ratio [OR] 0.98; P Gleason score improved from 2000 to 2012, with most of the improvement occurring before the 2005 ISUP grading revision. Had ISUP grades been used instead of Gleason score, the agreement between biopsy and RP grade would have decreased, probably because of its separation of Gleason score 7 into ISUP grades 2 and 3 (Gleason score 3 + 4 vs 4 + 3). © 2016 The Authors BJU International © 2016 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Refining the cheatgrass–fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David; Welty, Justin; Arkle, Robert

    2017-01-01

    Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years’ growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1–3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

  6. Refining the cheatgrass-fire cycle in the Great Basin: Precipitation timing and fine fuel composition predict wildfire trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilliod, David S; Welty, Justin L; Arkle, Robert S

    2017-10-01

    Larger, more frequent wildfires in arid and semi-arid ecosystems have been associated with invasion by non-native annual grasses, yet a complete understanding of fine fuel development and subsequent wildfire trends is lacking. We investigated the complex relationships among weather, fine fuels, and fire in the Great Basin, USA. We first modeled the annual and time-lagged effects of precipitation and temperature on herbaceous vegetation cover and litter accumulation over a 26-year period in the northern Great Basin. We then modeled how these fine fuels and weather patterns influence subsequent wildfires. We found that cheatgrass cover increased in years with higher precipitation and especially when one of the previous 3 years also was particularly wet. Cover of non-native forbs and native herbs also increased in wet years, but only after several dry years. The area burned by wildfire in a given year was mostly associated with native herb and non-native forb cover, whereas cheatgrass mainly influenced area burned in the form of litter derived from previous years' growth. Consequently, multiyear weather patterns, including precipitation in the previous 1-3 years, was a strong predictor of wildfire in a given year because of the time needed to develop these fine fuel loads. The strong relationship between precipitation and wildfire allowed us to expand our inference to 10,162 wildfires across the entire Great Basin over a 35-year period from 1980 to 2014. Our results suggest that the region's precipitation pattern of consecutive wet years followed by consecutive dry years results in a cycle of fuel accumulation followed by weather conditions that increase the probability of wildfire events in the year when the cycle transitions from wet to dry. These patterns varied regionally but were strong enough to allow us to model annual wildfire risk across the Great Basin based on precipitation alone.

  7. The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gole, Tadesse Woldemariam; Baena, Susana

    2012-01-01

    Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing

  8. Medical students' situational motivation to participate in simulation based team training is predicted by attitudes to patient safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escher, Cecilia; Creutzfeldt, Johan; Meurling, Lisbet; Hedman, Leif; Kjellin, Ann; Felländer-Tsai, Li

    2017-02-10

    Patient safety education, as well as the safety climate at clinical rotations, has an impact on students' attitudes. We explored medical students' self-reported motivation to participate in simulation-based teamwork training (SBTT), with the hypothesis that high scores in patient safety attitudes would promote motivation to SBTT and that intrinsic motivation would increase after training. In a prospective cohort study we explored Swedish medical students' attitudes to patient safety, their motivation to participate in SBTT and how motivation was affected by the training. The setting was an integrated SBTT course during the surgical semester that focused on non-technical skills and safe treatment of surgical emergencies. Data was collected using the Situational Motivation Scale (SIMS) and the Attitudes to Patient Safety Questionnaire (APSQ). We found a positive correlation between students' individual patient safety attitudes and self-reported motivation (identified regulation) to participate in SBTT. We also found that intrinsic motivation increased after training. Female students in our study scored higher than males regarding some of the APSQ sub-scores and the entire group scored higher or on par with comparable international samples. In order to enable safe practice and professionalism in healthcare, students' engagement in patient safety education is important. Our finding that students' patient safety attitudes show a positive correlation to motivation and that intrinsic motivation increases after training underpins patient safety climate and integrated teaching of patient safety issues at medical schools in order to help students develop the knowledge, skills and attitudes required for safe practice.

  9. Seasonal trends in acclimatization to cold in the Queensland fruit fly (Dacus tryoni, Diptera) and their prediction by means of a physiological model fed with climatological data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meats, A

    1976-03-01

    This paper demonstrates the predictability and significance of changes in the temperature threshold for cold-torpor and in the threshold for survival at sub-zero temperatures in two contrasting types of climate. Both thresholds alter on a seasonal basis in both types of climate and it is observed that temperatures prevailing in autumn cause acclimatization for winter long before winter arrives.Torpor thresholds can be accurately predicted in laboratory-simulated climates by use of a model. When the model is used for field predictions, using shade temperature data from the field, it is only successful in predicting accurate threshold values for those parts of the year during which there is a downward trend in threshold.The relative importance of torpor-avoidance and frost-resistance is discussed with reference to records of the frequency and extent of various degrees of cold in the field. It is concluded that the marked lowering of torpor threshold prior to winter is of great significance in enabling overwintering flies to stay in their sheltered hibernacula. The relatively slight lowering of temperature threshold for frost-survival is only of significance in certain climates. It greatly improves chances of forst-survival in climates where yearly minima fall predominantly in the range-2.65°C to-4.05°C. Acclimation is not necessary for frost survival in climates where the yearly minima stay above-2.65°C whereas acclimation is ineffective in preventing frostinduced extinction when yearly minima fall below-4.5°C.

  10. Guidance for the design and management of a maintenance plan to assure safety and improve the predictability of a DOE nuclear irradiation facility. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booth, R.S.; Kryter, R.C.; Shepard, R.L.; Smith, O.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Upadhyaya, B.R. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering; Rowan, W.J.

    1994-10-01

    A program is recommended for planning the maintenance of DOE nuclear facilities that will help safety and enhance availability throughout a facility`s life cycle. While investigating the requirements for maintenance activities, a major difference was identified between the strategy suitable for a conventional power reactor and one for a research reactor facility: the latter should provide a high degree of predicted availability (referred to hereafter as ``predictability``) to its users, whereas the former should maximize total energy production. These differing operating goals necessitate different maintenance strategies. A strategy for scheduling research reactor facility operation and shutdown for maintenance must balance safety, reliability,and predicted availability. The approach developed here is based on three major elements: (1) a probabilistic risk analysis of the balance between assured reliability and predictability (presented in Appendix C), (2) an assessment of the safety and operational impact of maintenance activities applied to various components of the facility, and (3) a data base of historical and operational information on the performance and requirements for maintenance of various components. These factors are integrated into a set of guidelines for designing a new highly maintainable facility, for preparing flexible schedules for improved maintenance of existing facilities, and for anticipating the maintenance required to extend the life of an aging facility. Although tailored to research reactor facilities, the methodology has broader applicability and may therefore be used to improved the maintenance of power reactors, particularly in anticipation of peak load demands.

  11. Monte Carlo simulation of base and nucleotide excision repair of clustered DNA damage sites. I. Model properties and predicted trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Semenenko, Vladimir; Stewart, Robert D.; Ackerman, Eric J.

    2005-12-31

    Single-cell irradiators and new experimental assays are rapidly expanding our ability to quantify the molecular mechanisms responsible for phenomena such as toxicant-induced adaptations in DNA repair and signal-mediated changes to the genome stability of cells not directly damaged by radiation (i.e., bystander cells). To advance our understanding of, and ability to predict and mitigate, the potentially harmful effects of radiological agents, effective strategies must be devised to incorporate information from molecular and cellular studies into mechanism-based, hierarchical models. A key advantage of the hierarchical modeling approach is that information from DNA repair and other in vitro assays can be systematically integrated into higher-level cell transformation and, eventually, carcinogenesis models. This presentation will outline the hierarchical modeling strategy used to integrate information from in vitro studies into the Virtual Cell (VC) radiobiology software (see Endnote). A new multi-path genomic instability model will be introduced and used to link biochemical processing of double strand breaks (DSBs) to neoplastic cell transformation. Bystander and directly damaged cells are treated explicitly in the model using a microdosimetric approach, although many of the details of the bystander response model are of a necessarily preliminary nature. The new model will be tested against several published radiobiological datasets. Results illustrating how hypothesized bystander mechanisms affect the shape of dose-response curves for neoplastic transformation as a function of Linear Energy Transfer (LET) will be presented. EndNote: R.D. Stewart, Virtual Cell (VC) Radiobiology Software. PNNL-13579, July 2001. Available at http://www.pnl.gov/berc/kbem/vc/ The DNA repair model used in the VC computer program is based on the Two-Lesion Kinetic (TLK) model [Radiat. Res. 156(4), 365-378 October 2001].

  12. The competitive status of trees determines their responsiveness to increasing atmospheric humidity - a climate trend predicted for northern latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tullus, Arvo; Kupper, Priit; Kaasik, Ants; Tullus, Hardi; Lõhmus, Krista; Sõber, Anu; Sellin, Arne

    2017-05-01

    The interactive effects of climate variables and tree-tree competition are still insufficiently understood drivers of forest response to global climate change. Precipitation and air humidity are predicted to rise concurrently at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. We investigated whether the growth response of deciduous trees to elevated air humidity varies with their competitive status. The study was conducted in seed-originated silver birch and monoclonal hybrid aspen stands grown at the free air humidity manipulation (FAHM) experimental site in Estonia, in which manipulated stands (n = 3 for both species) are exposed to artificially elevated relative air humidity (6-7% over the ambient level). The study period included three growing seasons during which the stands had reached the competitive stage (trees were 7 years old in the final year). A significant 'treatment×competitive status' interactive effect on growth was detected in all years in birch (P humidity. Initially the growth of advantaged and neutral trees of both species remained significantly suppressed in humidified stands. In the following years, dominance and elevated humidity had a synergistic positive effect on the growth of birches. Aspens with different competitive status recovered more uniformly, attaining similar relative growth rates in manipulated and control stands, but preserved a significantly lower total growth yield due to severe initial growth stress. Disadvantaged trees of both species were never significantly affected by elevated humidity. Our results suggest that air humidity affects trees indirectly depending on their social status. Therefore, the response of northern temperate and boreal forests to a more humid climate in future will likely be modified by competitive relationships among trees, which may potentially affect species composition and cause a need to change forestry practices. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Trends in serum human chorionic gonadotropin levels 0-4 days after methotrexate administration for predicting tubal ectopic pregnancy treatment success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Lo; Fung, Linda W Y; Cheung, Chun-Wai; Lao, Terence T

    2017-12-07

    To evaluate serum human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) levels 0-4 days after single-dose methotrexate administration for tubal ectopic pregnancy. The present retrospective study included women with tubal ectopic pregnancy treated by methotrexate at a tertiary hospital in Hong Kong, China, between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2016. Patients were stratified serum HCG levels rose or fell from day 0-4 post-administration. Trends in day 0-4 serum HCG to predict treatment success were compared with that of day 4-7 serum HCG. The optimal drop in HCG was identified by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. There were 102 patients included. The positive predictive value (PPV) of day 0-4 serum HCG for treatment success was 91% (95% confidence interval [CI] 82-96), which is comparable to the current criterion of a 15% drop in day 4-7 serum HCG (PPV 91%, 95% CI 84-95). A 6% drop in day 0-4 serum HCG was the best predictor of treatment success (PPV 96%, 95% CI 86-99). A drop in day 0-4 serum HCG provided earlier prognostic information and was not inferior to the current criterion. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  14. Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuiyuan Guo

    Full Text Available We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R0 as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31-50%, 45% (42-48%, and 51% (44-56% among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.

  15. Scalable and Cost-Effective Assignment of Mobile Crowdsensing Tasks Based on Profiling Trends and Prediction: The ParticipAct Living Lab Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Bellavista

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, sensor-rich smartphones potentially enable the harvesting of huge amounts of valuable sensing data in urban environments, by opportunistically involving citizens to play the role of mobile virtual sensors to cover Smart City areas of interest. This paper proposes an in-depth study of the challenging technical issues related to the efficient assignment of Mobile Crowd Sensing (MCS data collection tasks to volunteers in a crowdsensing campaign. In particular, the paper originally describes how to increase the effectiveness of the proposed sensing campaigns through the inclusion of several new facilities, including accurate participant selection algorithms able to profile and predict user mobility patterns, gaming techniques, and timely geo-notification. The reported results show the feasibility of exploiting profiling trends/prediction techniques from volunteers’ behavior; moreover, they quantitatively compare different MCS task assignment strategies based on large-scale and real MCS data campaigns run in the ParticipAct living lab, an ongoing MCS real-world experiment that involved more than 170 students of the University of Bologna for more than one year.

  16. Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

    2016-01-01

    Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where

  17. Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heikki Frilander

    Full Text Available Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8% men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%. The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56. Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of

  18. Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Narvydas, A

    2015-01-01

    The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

  19. Evaluation of an in silico cardiac safety assay: using ion channel screening data to predict QT interval changes in the rabbit ventricular wedge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beattie, Kylie A; Luscombe, Chris; Williams, Geoff; Munoz-Muriedas, Jordi; Gavaghan, David J; Cui, Yi; Mirams, Gary R

    2013-01-01

    Drugs that prolong the QT interval on the electrocardiogram present a major safety concern for pharmaceutical companies and regulatory agencies. Despite a range of assays performed to assess compound effects on the QT interval, QT prolongation remains a major cause of attrition during compound development. In silico assays could alleviate such problems. In this study we evaluated an in silico method of predicting the results of a rabbit left-ventricular wedge assay. Concentration-effect data were acquired from either: the high-throughput IonWorks/FLIPR; the medium-throughput PatchXpress ion channel assays; or QSAR, a statistical IC50 value prediction model, for hERG, fast sodium, L-type calcium and KCNQ1/minK channels. Drug block of channels was incorporated into a mathematical differential equation model of rabbit ventricular myocyte electrophysiology through modification of the maximal conductance of each channel by a factor dependent on the IC50 value, Hill coefficient and concentration of each compound tested. Simulations were performed and agreement with experimental results, based upon input data from the different assays, was evaluated. The assay was found to be 78% accurate, 72% sensitive and 81% specific when predicting QT prolongation (>10%) using PatchXpress assay data (77 compounds). Similar levels of predictivity were demonstrated using IonWorks/FLIPR data (121 compounds) with 78% accuracy, 73% sensitivity and 80% specificity. QT shortening (<-10%) was predicted with 77% accuracy, 33% sensitivity and 90% specificity using PatchXpress data and 71% accuracy, 42% sensitivity and 81% specificity using IonWorks/FLIPR data. Strong quantitative agreement between simulation and experimental results was also evident. The in silico action potential assay demonstrates good predictive ability, and is suitable for very high-throughput use in early drug development. Adoption of such an assay into cardiovascular safety assessment, integrating ion channel data from

  20. Oxygen safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    COPD - oxygen safety; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - oxygen safety; Chronic obstructive airways disease - oxygen safety; Emphysema - oxygen safety; Heart failure - oxygen-safety; Palliative care - oxygen safety; Hospice - oxygen safety

  1. Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Sornette, Didier

    2010-01-01

    This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties such as phase transitions and regime shifts. Then, a detailed correspondence between the phenomenology of earthquakes, financial crashes and epileptic seizures is offered. The presented statistical evidence provides the substance of a general phase diagram for understanding the many facets of the spatio-temporal organization of these systems. A key insight is to organize the evidence and mechanisms in terms of two summarizing measures: (i) amplitude of disorder or heterogeneity in the system and (ii) level of coupling or interaction strength among the system's components. On the basis of the recently identified remarkable correspondence between earthquakes and seizures, we present detailed information on a class of stochastic point processes that has been found to be particu...

  2. Predicting ROSC in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest using expiratory carbon dioxide concentration: Is trend-detection instead of absolute threshold values the key?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkrolf, Peter; Borowski, Matthias; Metelmann, Camilla; Lukas, Roman-Patrik; Pidde-Küllenberg, Laura; Bohn, Andreas

    2017-11-13

    Guidelines recommend detecting return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) by a rising concentration of carbon dioxide in the exhalation air. As CO2 is influenced by numerous factors, no absolute cut-off values of CO2 to detect ROSC are agreed on so far. As trends in CO2 might be less affected by influencing factors, we investigated an approach which is based on detecting CO2-trends in real-time. We conducted a retrospective case-control study on 169 CO2 time series from out of hospital cardiac arrests resuscitated by Muenster City Ambulance-Service, Germany. A recently developed statistical method for real-time trend-detection (SCARM) was applied to each time series. For each series, the percentage of time points with detected positive and negative trends was determined. ROSC time series had larger percentages of positive trends than No-ROSC time series (p=0.003). The median percentage of positive trends was 15% in the ROSC time series (IQR: 5% to 23%) and 7% in the No-ROSC time series (IQR: 3% to 14%). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis yielded an optimal threshold of 13% to differentiate between ROSC and No-ROSC cases with a specificity of 58.4% and sensitivity of 73.9%; the area under the curve was 63.5%. Patients with ROSC differed from patients without ROSC as to the percentage of detected CO2 trends, indicating the potential of our real-time trend-detection approach. Since the study was designed as a proof of principle and its calculated specificity and sensitivity are low, more research is required to implement CO2-trend-detection into clinical use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Height-related trends in leaf xylem anatomy and shoot hydraulic characteristics in a tall conifer: safety versus efficiency in water transport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodruff, D R; Meinzer, F C; Lachenbruch, B

    2008-01-01

    Hydraulic vulnerability of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) branchlets decreases with height, allowing shoots at greater height to maintain hydraulic conductance (K shoot) at more negative leaf water potentials (Psi l). To determine the basis for this trend shoot hydraulic and tracheid anatomical properties of foliage from the tops of Douglas-fir trees were analysed along a height gradient from 5 to 55 m. Values of Psi l at which K shoot was substantially reduced, declined with height by 0.012 Mpa m(-1). Maximum K shoot was reduced by 0.082 mmol m(-2) MPa(-1) s(-1) for every 1 m increase in height. Total tracheid lumen area per needle cross-section, hydraulic mean diameter of leaf tracheid lumens, total number of tracheids per needle cross-section and leaf tracheid length decreased with height by 18.4 microm(2) m(-1), 0.029 microm m(-1), 0.42 m(-1) and 5.3 microm m(-1), respectively. Tracheid thickness-to-span ratio (tw/b)2 increased with height by 1.04 x 10(-3) m(-1) and pit number per tracheid decreased with height by 0.07 m(-1). Leaf anatomical adjustments that enhanced the ability to cope with vertical gradients of increasing xylem tension were attained at the expense of reduced water transport capacity and efficiency, possibly contributing to height-related decline in growth of Douglas fir.

  4. International trends in spice use: Prevalence, motivation for use, relationship to other substances, and perception of use and safety for synthetic cannabinoids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeffler, George; Delaney, Eileen; Hann, Michael

    2016-09-01

    Synthetic cannabinoids (SC), commonly known as Spice, are a class of compounds that share affinity for the cannabinoid receptors. Recreational use of SCs has grown in recent years. A literature search was conducted of national and international organizations as well as peer-reviewed publications describing SC use in non-clinical populations. Our primary goal was summarizing SC use prevalence within the general population from representative surveys. Our secondary goals included describing SC use frequency, motivation for use, the relationship between SC use and use of other substances, and perception of SC use including beliefs about safety and use by peers. Nationally and regionally representative surveys describe lifetime prevalence of SC use in the general population as between 0.2% and 4%. Longitudinal data, though limited, shows decline in SC use with peak use occurring in the late teens and early twenties. Users tend to be males. The majority of SC users report using only a small number of times and use tends to not be sustained. The most common motive for SC use is curiosity. SC users generally report a history of extensive use of other substances. Perception of SC use by others tends to be significantly greater than actual SC use. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  5. Trends in the quality of care for elderly people with type 2 diabetes: the need for improvements in safety and quality (the 2001 and 2007 ENTRED Surveys).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pornet, Carole; Bourdel-Marchasson, Isabelle; Lecomte, Pierre; Eschwège, Eveline; Romon, Isabelle; Fosse, Sandrine; Assogba, Frank; Roudier, Candice; Fagot-Campagna, Anne

    2011-04-01

    This study aimed to characterize the sociodemographic data, health status, quality of care and 6-year trends in elderly people with type 2 diabetes. This study used two French cross-sectional representative surveys of adults of all ages with all types of diabetes (Entred 2001 and 2007), which combined medical claims, and patient and medical provider questionnaires. The 2007 data in patients with type 2 diabetes aged 65 years or over (n=1766) were described and compared with the 2001 data (n=1801). Since 2001, obesity has increased (35% in 2007; +7 points since 2001) while written nutritional advice was less often provided (59%; -6 points). Mean HbA(1c) (7.1%; -0.2%), blood pressure (135/76 mmHg; -4/-3 mmHg) and LDL cholesterol (1.04 g/L; -0.21 g/L) declined, while the use of medication increased: at least two OHAs, 34% (+4 points); OHA(s) and insulin combined, 10% (+4 points); antihypertensive treatment, 83% (+4 points); and statins 48% (+26 points). Severe hypoglycaemia remained frequent (10% had an event at least once a year). The overall prevalence of complications increased. Renal complications were not monitored carefully enough (missing value for albuminuria: 42%; -4.5 points), and 46% of those with a glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m² were taking metformin. Elderly people with type 2 diabetes are receiving better quality of care and have better control of cardiovascular risk factors than before. However, improvement is still required, in particular by performing better screening for complications. In this patient population, it is important to carefully monitor the risks for hypoglycaemia, hypotension, malnutrition and contraindications related to renal function. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Thermal reactor safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-06-01

    Information is presented concerning new trends in licensing; seismic considerations and system structural behavior; TMI-2 risk assessment and thermal hydraulics; statistical assessment of potential accidents and verification of computational methods; issues with respect to improved safety; human factors in nuclear power plant operation; diagnostics and activities in support of recovery; LOCA transient analysis; unresolved safety issues and other safety considerations; and fission product transport.

  7. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  8. [Prediction of the nutritional status by anthropometrical variables and food safety at homes of pregnant women from Caracas, Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez Guillén, A; Bernal Rivas, J

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this research is to analyze the nutritional status and household food security of a sample of healthy pregnant women who attend to external medicine service at Concepcion Palacios Maternity located in Caracas, Venezuela, and identify variables, which could predict the nutritional status of the evaluated group. This cross sectional, descriptive, comparative study evaluates a sample of 89 pregnant women, between 14 and 44 years of age. Economical, social, demographic and alimentary consumption variables and nutritional conditions were studied. On the way, anthropometrics like weight, height, and middle-arm circumference and Household food security scale were obtained. In order to perform the descriptive statistic, bivariate, and multiple linear regression analysis required during the investigation, the software SPSS, version 12, was used. The predictive variables considered for the evaluation of the actual nutritional status in pregnant women were: right middle-arm circumference, household food security level and the supplementation with vitamins and/or minerals. These variables explain 78.2% of the actual nutritional status variation in this sample. Therefore, this investigation highlights the importance of the research on simple variables, as a good prediction of the actual nutritional status in pregnant women, with acceptable precision values and without requiring high-trained personnel to perform it. Under these findings, is very important the study of more predictive variables to evaluate the nutritional and alimentary conditions, with practical and easy mechanisms that can be applied by non-technical personnel. It is recommended to go deep into the study of methods, which evaluate the nutrition in an easy and practical way, applied by non-technical personnel, besides continuing the validation process of the variable combinations determined as predictive of the nutritional status.

  9. A mathematical theory for related long term developments of road traffic and safety.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oppe, S. & Koornstra, M. J.

    1990-01-01

    This article presents and discusses an adoptive evolution model for forecasting long term developments in road safety. It takes into account both traffic growth and human adaptation. Earlier parsimonious models such as those used here are also discussed, and shown to predict trends in accident rates

  10. Safety, Efficacy, Predictability and Stability Indices of Photorefractive Keratectomy for Correction of Myopic Astigmatism with Plano-Scan and Tissue-Saving Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Mohammadpour

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To assess the safety, efficacy and predictability of photorefractive keratectomy (PRK [Tissue-saving (TS versus Plano-scan (PS ablation algorithms] of Technolas 217z excimer laser for correction of myopic astigmatismMethods: In this retrospective study one hundred and seventy eyes of 85 patients (107 eyes (62.9% with PS and 63 eyes (37.1% with TS algorithm were included. TS algorithm was applied for those with central corneal thickness less than 500 µm or estimated residual stromal thickness less than 420 µm. Mitomycin C (MMC was applied for 120 eyes (70.6%; in case of an ablation depth more than 60 μm and/or astigmatic correction more than one diopter (D. Mean sphere, cylinder, spherical equivalent (SE refraction, uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA were measured preoperatively, and 4 weeks,12 weeks and 24 weeks postoperatively.Results: One, three and six months postoperatively, 60%, 92.9%, 97.5% of eyes had UCVA of 20/20 or better, respectively. Mean preoperative and 1, 3, 6 months postoperative SE were -3.48±1.28 D (-1.00 to -8.75, -0.08±0.62D, -0.02±0.57 and -0.004± 0.29, respectively. And also, 87.6%, 94.1% and 100% were within ±1.0 D of emmetropia and 68.2, 75.3, 95% were within ±0.5 of emmetropia. The safety and efficacy indices were 0.99 and 0.99 at 12 weeks and 1.009 and 0.99 at 24 weeks, respectively. There was no clinically or statistically significant difference between the outcomes of PS or TS algorithms or between those with or without MMC in either group in terms of safety, efficacy, predictability or stability. Dividing the eyes with subjective SE≤4 D and SE≥4 D postoperatively, there was no significant difference between the predictability of the two groups. There was no intra- or postoperative complication.Conclusion: Outcomes of PRK for correction of myopic astigmatism showed great promise with both PS and TS algorithms.

  11. Trends in gastric and esophageal cancer incidence in northern Portugal (1994-2009) by subsite and histology, and predictions for 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Clara; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Bento, Maria José; Lunet, Nuno

    2017-03-24

    Gastric cancer (GC) and esophageal cancer (EC) share risk factors, and the incidence trends reflect differences in etiology according to their subtypes. We aimed to describe the incidence trends of GC (by topography) and EC (by histological type) in northern Portugal for 1994-2009 and to estimate the incidence for 2015. We further analyzed exposure to the main risk factors for these cancers in the region over the last decades. GC and EC data were obtained from the North Region Cancer Registry of Portugal (RORENO). Joinpoint regression was used to compute annual percent changes (APC) in incidence trends. Poisson regression yielded estimates for 2015. A literature review up to 2014 provided data on exposure to risk factors. GC rates decreased in 1994-2009 (men, APC = -1.3; women, APC = -1.6); GC, unspecified subtype, had the steepest decline since the early 2000s (men, APC = -4.9; women, APC = -6.3). The incidence for 2015 will increase for EC in men (up to ≈190 cases) and stabilize in women (≈30) and for GC (≈730 men, ≈500 women). Increasing prevalence of tobacco smoking among women and overweight/obesity, fairly stable prevalence of alcohol, fruit and vegetable consumption, and no trend for Helicobacter pylori infection were observed. The declining incidence of GC unspecified subtype indicated an improvement in cancer registration accuracy, but precluded a sound assessment of trends by subtype. Variations in the prevalence of exposure to some risk factors were consistent with observed incidence trends, and future studies should aim to quantify their contribution to the GC and EC burden in the region.

  12. An empirical tool to evaluate the safety of cyclists: Community based, macro-level collision prediction models using negative binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Feng; Lovegrove, Gordon

    2013-12-01

    Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighborhoods with increased use of sustainable transportation modes. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5km is being encouraged. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured when involved in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists' road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed two types of statistical associations between collisions and each explanatory variable: (1) An increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in total lane kilometers (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometers (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP). (2) A decrease in bicycle collisions was found to be associated with an increase in the number of drive commuters (DRIVE), and in the percentage of drive commuters (DRP). These results support our hypothesis that in North America, with its current low levels of bicycle use (safety improvement. To test this hypothesis and to further explore the statistical relationships between bicycle mode split and overall road safety, future research needs to pursue further development and application of community-based, macro-level CPMs. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Prediction model for cadmium transfer from soil to carrot (Daucus carota L.) and its application to derive soil thresholds for food safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Changfeng; Zhang, Taolin; Wang, Xingxiang; Zhou, Fen; Yang, Yiru; Huang, Guifeng

    2013-10-30

    At present, soil quality standards used for agriculture do not fully consider the influence of soil properties on cadmium (Cd) uptake by crops. This study aimed to develop prediction models for Cd transfer from a wide range of Chinese soils to carrot (Daucus carota L.) using soil properties and the total or available soil Cd content. Path analysis showed soil pH and organic carbon (OC) content were the two most significant properties exhibiting direct effects on Cd uptake factor (ratio of Cd concentration in carrot to that in soil). Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis also showed that total soil Cd, pH, and OC were significant variables contributing to carrot Cd concentration, explaining 90% of the variance across the 21 soils. Soil thresholds for carrot (cultivar New Kuroda) cropping based on added or total Cd were then derived from the food safety standard and were presented as continuous or scenario criteria.

  14. Pre-existing IgG antibodies cross-reacting with the Fab region of infliximab predict efficacy and safety of infliximab therapy in inflammatory bowel disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steenholdt, Casper; Palarasah, Yaseelan; Bendtzen, Klaus

    2013-01-01

    are common and may cross-react with the murine part of IFX. AIM: To investigate if Abs binding to IFX's Fab region (IFX-Fab) are present in IBD patients before exposure to IFX, and whether they predict efficacy and safety of IFX therapy. METHODS: Observational, retrospective cohort study of patients with CD...... (n = 29) and UC (n = 22). RESULTS: Pre-treatment levels of IFX-Fab reactive IgG Abs were significantly lower in CD patients in remission after 1 year of maintenance IFX (median 91 mU/L, n = 8) than in the rest of the patients (639 mU/L, n = 21; P ...

  15. Testing an extended theory of planned behaviour to predict young people's sun safety in a high risk area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Katherine M; Robinson, Natalie G; Young, Ross McD; Anderson, Peter J; Hyde, Melissa K; Greenbank, Susan; Rolfe, Toni; Keane, Julie; Vardon, Paul; Baskerville, Debra

    2008-09-01

    The present research examined the sun protection intentions and behaviours of young people in a high risk skin cancer area using an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) incorporating additional social influences of group and image norms. The study employed a prospective design to examine young people's sun protection intentions and behaviour. Participants (N=1,134), aged 12-20 years, were students (school, university, TAFE) and young employees living in Queensland, Australia. Participants completed a questionnaire assessing the TPB predictors (attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control) and additional social influences (group norm, image norm) of sun protection intentions. Two weeks later, participants (N=734) reported their sun protection behaviour for the previous fortnight. Results revealed that the TPB variables of attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control and the additional social influence variable of group norms, but not image norms, emerged as significant predictors of intentions to engage in sun protection. The extended TPB variables accounted for 36% of the variance in intentions. For behaviour, the extended TPB variables accounted for 27% of the variance with both intention and, unexpectedly, group norm as the significant direct predictors of sun protective behaviours. Results of this study provide support for the application of the TPB in the sun safety context and highlight the importance of considering the influence of group norms in the development of future interventions to increase young people's sun protection intentions and behaviour.

  16. Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamma, Alex; Schleifer, Roman; Weinmann, Wolfgang; Buadze, Anna; Liebrenz, Michael

    2016-01-01

    To compare the time trends of Google search interest in methamphetamine and criminal offences related to this drug. Google Trends data for the search term "meth" was compared to methamphetamine-related crime statistics (incl. use, possession, and dealing) in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria for the years 2004-2016. Google data was availably monthly. Crime data was available yearly, and monthly values were imputed. On the country level, internet search trends for "meth" roughly paralleled relevant criminal activity. State-level data, which was available for Austria, showed more heterogeneity. Cross-correlations for yearly data almost always peaked at a lag time of 0 and coefficients were mostly between 0.7 and 1.0 on the country level, and between 0.5 to 1.0 on the state level. Monthly cross-correlations based on imputed values were substantially lower, ranging from 0 to 0.6. These results encourage the further evaluation by law enforcement authorities of Google search activity as a possible predictor of methamphetamine-related crime. However, several limitations, in particular the crude temporal resolution of available crime data, precluded a detailed assessment of the relationship between internet search trends and the development of methamphetamine-related crime in central Europe.

  17. Final Results of the Telaprevir Access Program: FibroScan Values Predict Safety and Efficacy in Hepatitis C Patients with Advanced Fibrosis or Cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonia Lepida

    Full Text Available Liver stiffness determined by transient elastography is correlated with hepatic fibrosis stage and has high accuracy for detecting severe fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C patients. We evaluated the clinical value of baseline FibroScan values for the prediction of safety and efficacy of telaprevir-based therapy in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in the telaprevir Early Access Program HEP3002.1,772 patients with HCV-1 and bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis were treated with telaprevir plus pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin (PR for 12 weeks followed by PR alone, the total treatment duration depending on virological response and previous response type. Liver fibrosis stage was determined either by liver biopsy or by non-invasive markers. 1,282 patients (72% had disease stage assessed by FibroScan; among those 46% were classified as Metavir F3 at baseline and 54% as F4.Overall, 1,139 patients (64% achieved a sustained virological response (SVR by intention-to-treat analysis. Baseline FibroScan values were tested for association with SVR and the occurrence of adverse events. By univariate analysis, higher baseline FibroScan values were predictive of lower sustained virological response rates and treatment-related anemia. By multivariate analysis, FibroScan was no longer statistically significant as an independent predictor, but higher FibroScan values were correlated with the occurrence of infections and serious adverse events.FibroScan has a limited utility as a predictor of safety and efficacy in patients treated with telaprevir-based triple therapy. Nevertheless it can be used in association with other clinical and biological parameters to help determine patients who will benefit from the triple regiments.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01508286.

  18. SEURAT: Safety Evaluation Ultimately Replacing Animal Testing--recommendations for future research in the field of predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daston, George; Knight, Derek J; Schwarz, Michael; Gocht, Tilman; Thomas, Russell S; Mahony, Catherine; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The development of non-animal methodology to evaluate the potential for a chemical to cause systemic toxicity is one of the grand challenges of modern science. The European research programme SEURAT is active in this field and will conclude its first phase, SEURAT-1, in December 2015. Drawing on the experience gained in SEURAT-1 and appreciating international advancement in both basic and regulatory science, we reflect here on how SEURAT should evolve and propose that further research and development should be directed along two complementary and interconnecting work streams. The first work stream would focus on developing new 'paradigm' approaches for regulatory science. The goal here is the identification of 'critical biological targets' relevant for toxicity and to test their suitability to be used as anchors for predicting toxicity. The second work stream would focus on integration and application of new approach methods for hazard (and risk) assessment within the current regulatory 'paradigm', aiming for acceptance of animal-free testing strategies by regulatory authorities (i.e. translating scientific achievements into regulation). Components for both work streams are discussed and may provide a structure for a future research programme in the field of predictive toxicology.

  19. Buffering social influence: neural correlates of response inhibition predict driving safety in the presence of a peer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cascio, Christopher N; Carp, Joshua; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Tinney, Francis J; Bingham, C Raymond; Shope, Jean T; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Pradhan, Anuj K; Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Falk, Emily B

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is a period characterized by increased sensitivity to social cues, as well as increased risk-taking in the presence of peers. For example, automobile crashes are the leading cause of death for adolescents, and driving with peers increases the risk of a fatal crash. Growing evidence points to an interaction between neural systems implicated in cognitive control and social and emotional context in predicting adolescent risk. We tested such a relationship in recently licensed teen drivers. Participants completed an fMRI session in which neural activity was measured during a response inhibition task, followed by a separate driving simulator session 1 week later. Participants drove alone and with a peer who was randomly assigned to express risk-promoting or risk-averse social norms. The experimentally manipulated social context during the simulated drive moderated the relationship between individual differences in neural activity in the hypothesized cognitive control network (right inferior frontal gyrus, BG) and risk-taking in the driving context a week later. Increased activity in the response inhibition network was not associated with risk-taking in the presence of a risky peer but was significantly predictive of safer driving in the presence of a cautious peer, above and beyond self-reported susceptibility to peer pressure. Individual differences in recruitment of the response inhibition network may allow those with stronger inhibitory control to override risky tendencies when in the presence of cautious peers. This relationship between social context and individual differences in brain function expands our understanding of neural systems involved in top-down cognitive control during adolescent development.

  20. 10. colloquium on aspects of chemical and physical safety engineering. Current trends in safety engineering - research findings and legal boundary conditions - new options for large-scale experiments; 10. Kolloquium zu Fragen der chemischen und physikalischen Sicherheitstechnik. Aktuelle Entwicklungen in der Sicherheitstechnik - Forschungsergebnisse und gesetzliches Umfeld - neue Moeglichkeiten fuer Grossversuche

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    Since 1981, BAM and PTB have been hosting of this series of colloquia, at which attendants were informed on current news and trends in chemical and physical safety engineering. This volume informs on explosion protection to prevent formation of explosive solvent/vapour/air mixtures in dryers, ignition source safety of ga/air, dust/air, and dust layers, sudden ignition processes in hydrogen/air mixtures, test methods, influencing parameters of the hazardous properties of ammonium nitrate and materials containing it, fire behaviour and fire hazards of bulk goods and specific materials, problems in the application of new technical rules and directives on a national and European level, and new approaches to probabilistic risk assessment for safe design of gas stores. At this anniversary meeting, the attendants were also given the opportunity to visit the BAM test facilities at Horstwalde, about 50 km south of Berlin. This test site, with an area of 12 km{sup 2}, has an explosion test area with a diameter of 400 m for fire and explosion tests up to 150 kg TNT. (orig.)

  1. Safety KPIs - Monitoring of safety performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Lališ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to provide brief overview of aviation safety development focusing on modern trends represented by implementation of Safety Key Performance Indicators. Even though aviation is perceived as safe means of transport, it is still struggling with its complexity given by long-term growth and robustness which it has reached today. Thus nowadays safety issues are much more complex and harder to handle than ever before. We are more and more concerned about organizational factors and control mechanisms which have potential to further increase level of aviation safety. Within this paper we will not only introduce the concept of Key Performance Indicators in area of aviation safety as an efficient control mechanism, but also analyse available legislation and documentation. Finally we will propose complex set of indicators which could be applied to Czech Air Navigation Service Provider.

  2. Future Performance Trend Indicators: A Current Value Approach to Human Resources Accounting. Report III. Multivariate Predictions of Organizational Performance Across Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pecorella, Patricia A.; Bowers, David G.

    Multiple regression in a double cross-validated design was used to predict two performance measures (total variable expense and absence rate) by multi-month period in five industrial firms. The regressions do cross-validate, and produce multiple coefficients which display both concurrent and predictive effects, peaking 18 months to two years…

  3. Reliability of Triggered EMG for Prediction of Safety during Pedicle Screw Placement in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Joo; Jeong, Won-Ju; Oh, Chang-Wug; Bae, Jae-Sung; Cho, Hwan-Seong; Jeon, In-Ho; Cho, Chang-Hyun; Park, Byung-Chul

    2011-01-01

    Study Design We performed a prospective study to evaluate the reliability of using triggered electromyography (EMG) for predicting pedicle wall breakthrough during the placement of pedicle screw in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis surgery. Purpose We wanted to correlate pedicle wall breakthrough with the triggered EMG threshold of stimulation and the postoperative computed tomography (CT) findings. Overview of Literature Pedicle wall breakthrough has been reported to be difficult to evaluate by radiographs. Triggered EMG had been found to be a more sensitive test to detect this breakthrough. Methods Seven patients who underwent the insertion of 103 pedicle screws were evaluated. The triggered EMG activity was recorded from several muscles depending on the level of screw placement. The postoperative CT scans were read by a spine surgeon who was a senior fellow in orthopedics, and a musculoskeletal radiologist. Results The mean age at surgery was 12.6 years (range, 11 to 17 years). The preoperative mean Cobb angle was 54.7° (range, 45 to 65°). There were 80 thoracic screws and 23 lumbar screws. All the screws had stimulation thresholds of ≥ 6 mA, except 3 screws with the stimulation threshold of EMG helps to assess the pedicle screw placement. Pedicle screws that had stimulation threshold of ≥ 6 mA were safe, with 90.3% reliability, as was assessed on the postoperative CT scans. PMID:21386946

  4. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  5. Skiing trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

    1980-01-01

    A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

  6. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  7. When Are Qualitative Testing Results Sufficient To Predict a Reduction in Illnesses in a Microbiological Food Safety Risk Assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebel, Eric D; Williams, Michael S

    2015-08-01

    Process models that include the myriad pathways that pathogen-contaminated food may traverse before consumption and the dose-response function to relate exposure to likelihood of illness may represent a "gold standard" for quantitative microbial risk assessment. Nevertheless, simplifications that rely on measuring the change in contamination occurrence of a raw food at the end of production may provide reasonable approximations of the effects measured by a process model. In this study, we parameterized three process models representing different product-pathogen pairs (i.e., chicken-Salmonella, chicken-Campylobacter, and beef-E. coli O157:H7) to compare with predictions based on qualitative testing of the raw product before consideration of mixing, partitioning, growth, attenuation, or dose-response processes. The results reveal that reductions in prevalence generated from qualitative testing of raw finished product usually underestimate the reduction in likelihood of illness for a population of consumers. Qualitative microbial testing results depend on the test's limit of detection. The negative bias is greater for limits of detection that are closer to the center of the contamination distribution and becomes less as the limit of detection is moved further into the right tail of the distribution. Nevertheless, a positive bias can result when the limit of detection refers to very high contamination levels. Changes in these high levels translate to larger consumed doses for which the slope of the dose-response function is smaller compared with the larger slope associated with smaller doses. Consequently, in these cases, a proportional reduction in prevalence of contamination results in a less than proportional reduction in probability of illness. The magnitudes of the biases are generally less for nonscalar (versus scalar) adjustments to the distribution.

  8. High Burnup Fuel Performance and Safety Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Je Keun; Lee, Chan Bok; Kim, Dae Ho (and others)

    2007-03-15

    The worldwide trend of nuclear fuel development is to develop a high burnup and high performance nuclear fuel with high economies and safety. Because the fuel performance evaluation code, INFRA, has a patent, and the superiority for prediction of fuel performance was proven through the IAEA CRP FUMEX-II program, the INFRA code can be utilized with commercial purpose in the industry. The INFRA code was provided and utilized usefully in the universities and relevant institutes domesticallly and it has been used as a reference code in the industry for the development of the intrinsic fuel rod design code.

  9. Trends & controversies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijholt, Antinus; Arkin, Ronald C.; Brault, Sebastian; Kulpa, Richard; Multon, Franck; Bideau, Benoit; Traum, David; Hung, Hayley; Santos, Eugene; Li, Deqing; Yu, Fei; Zhou, Lina; Zhang, Dongsong

    2012-01-01

    Many applications require knowledge about how to deceive, including those related to safety, security, and warfare. Speech and text analysis can help detect deception, as can cameras, microphones, physiological sensors, and intelligent software. Models of deception and noncooperation can make a

  10. Trends in Internet Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Panchanathan, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    Internet marketing involves the usage of the Internet to market and sell goods or services. In this thesis we wished to seek answers for the following questions with the help of web, email surveys taking into consideration consumer perspective, company perspective and 3rd party internet marketing agency perspective. Our survey sample was based on a small set of companies, consumers and internet marketing agencies. The survey results helped us in predicting the trends in internet marketing. We...

  11. Software system safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uber, James G.

    1988-01-01

    Software itself is not hazardous, but since software and hardware share common interfaces there is an opportunity for software to create hazards. Further, these software systems are complex, and proven methods for the design, analysis, and measurement of software safety are not yet available. Some past software failures, future NASA software trends, software engineering methods, and tools and techniques for various software safety analyses are reviewed. Recommendations to NASA are made based on this review.

  12. Predictive global trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer based on geographic location, socio-economic status, and demographic shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Are, Chandrakanth; Chowdhury, Sanjib; Ahmad, Humera; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Song, Tianqiang; Shrikandhe, Shailesh; Smith, Lynette

    2016-11-01

    Pancreatic Cancer (PC) is a lethal malignancy that accounts for about 4% of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The aim of this study is to describe the influence of geography (based on WHO regions), socio-economic development (based on Human Development Index [HDI]) and demographic shift on the temporal trends in global incidence and mortality of PC. Data (2012-2030) relating to the incidence, mortality of PC and demographic shifts based on WHO regions and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012. Linear regression was used to evaluate trends in total incidence and mortality. We noted a definite association between PC and higher socio-economic status. Advanced age (age ≥65) contributed to the rising burden in all socio-economic regions of the world except in the Low Human Development (LHD) countries where the disease predominantly affected population global burden of PC is expected to rise significantly over the next few decades regardless of geographic location, socio-economic development, age and gender. Advance knowledge of this data can help formulate strategies to specifically target countries and populations that promote public health policy to tackle this lethal disease on the global stage. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:736-742. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Accident prediction models for rural junctions on four European countries. Road Infrastructure Safety Management Evaluation Tools (RISMET), Deliverable No. 6.1.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Azeredo Lopes, S. de & Lourenço Cardoso, J.

    2014-01-01

    The "Road Infrastructure Safety Management Evaluation Tools (RISMET)" project targets objective A (Development of evaluation tools) of the Joint Call for Proposals for Safety at the Heart of Road Design ("The Call"). This project aims at developing suitable road safety engineering evaluation tools

  14. Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Anders; Justesen, Birgitte Larsen; Melsen, Charlotte

    Title: Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia. Vestergaard A., Justesen B., Melsen C., Lyhne N., Department of Ophthal......Title: Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia. Vestergaard A., Justesen B., Melsen C., Lyhne N., Department...... months after surgery. Conclusions: Both FS-LASIK and ReLEx are efficient in treating myopia and myopic astigmatism. ReLEx is a promising new all-in-one femtosecond laser refractive procedure with results, concerning predictability and efficacy, that seemed comparable to or better than FS-LASIK after 3...

  15. 2014 New Trends in Fatigue and Fracture Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Milovic, Ljubica

    2017-01-01

    This book is a compilation of selected papers from the 2014 New Trends in Fatigue and Fracture (NT2F14) Conference, which was held in Belgrade, Serbia. This prestigious conference brought together delegates from around the globe to discuss how to characterize, predict and analyze the fatigue and fracture of engineering materials, components, and structures using theoretical, experimental, numerical and practical approaches. It highlights some important new trends in fracture mechanics presented at the conference, such as: • two-parameter fracture mechanics, arising from the coupling of fracture toughness and stress constraints • high-performance steel for gas and oil transportation and production (pressure vessels and boilers) • safety and reliability of welded joints This book includes 12 contributions from well-known international scientists and a special tribute dedicated to the scientific contributions of Stojan Sedmark, who passed away in 2014.

  16. Safety management practices and safety behaviour: assessing the mediating role of safety knowledge and motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinodkumar, M N; Bhasi, M

    2010-11-01

    Safety management practices not only improve working conditions but also positively influence employees' attitudes and behaviours with regard to safety, thereby reducing accidents in workplace. This study measured employees' perceptions on six safety management practices and self-reported safety knowledge, safety motivation, safety compliance and safety participation by conducting a survey using questionnaire among 1566 employees belonging to eight major accident hazard process industrial units in Kerala, a state in southern part of India. The reliability and unidimesionality of all the scales were found acceptable. Path analysis using AMOS-4 software showed that some of the safety management practices have direct and indirect relations with the safety performance components, namely, safety compliance and safety participation. Safety knowledge and safety motivation were found to be the key mediators in explaining these relationships. Safety training was identified as the most important safety management practice that predicts safety knowledge, safety motivation, safety compliance and safety participation. These findings provide valuable guidance for researchers and practitioners for identifying the mechanisms by which they can improve safety of workplace. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. EDITORIAL ROAD SAFETY IN KENYA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Unfortunately, road safety trends in Kenya are worsening. The mean annual fatality rate from all road traffic accidents in Kenya is estimated at 50 deaths per 10 000 registered vehicles (1,2). The numbers of reported accidents have been showing an increasing trend from 10,300 in 1990 to 16,800 in 2000 and. 17,400 in ...

  18. Predictive toxicology in drug safety

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Jinghai J; Urban, Laszlo

    2011-01-01

    .... It provides information on the present knowledge of drug side effects and their mitigation strategy during drug discovery, gives guidance for risk assessment, and promotes evidence-based toxicology...

  19. Predictive toxicology in drug safety

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Jinghai J; Urban, Laszlo

    2011-01-01

    .... Many chapters provide fascinating case studies, which are of general interest for those who have basic science training and are interested in how chemicals interact with the human body"--Provided by publisher.

  20. [Trend sports].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, R; Pralle, H

    2015-06-01

    Popular trend sports are characterized by intensive and high speed performance. Due to the high energy mechanism in falls, typical injury distributions and patterns result. In a retrospective study the injury patterns and frequencies in mountain bike athletes were analyzed and pathophysiological, diagnostic and therapeutic options in the treatment of high energy injuries to the carpal bones are shown. Based on a retrospective survey over 2 successive years, active mountain bike athletes (World Cup Series) were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire. Injury patterns and frequencies were analyzed. The pathophysiology, diagnostics and therapy of high energy carpal injuries are discussed. In this study 107 World Cup mountain bike athletes were enrolled. Injuries of the extremities were found in more than 75% of athletes with a higher prevalence in the upper extremities (40.7%) than the lower extremities (34.84%), followed by injuries of the head and face (13.3%, of which 10.6% were traumatic brain injuries) and the trunk (10.6%). Fractures and dislocations of the hand and wrist were found in approximately half of the athletes (50.9%). In popular trend sports injuries of the extremities are common, especially of the carpal bones and ligaments. It is important to distinguish stable from destabilizing injuries in order to provide adequate therapeutic options.

  1. Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, M D; Phillips, R A

    2004-01-01

    Safety climate refers to the degree to which employees believe true priority is given to organizational safety performance, and its measurement is thought to provide an "early warning" of potential safety system failure(s). However, researchers have struggled over the last 25 years to find empirical evidence to demonstrate actual links between safety climate and safety performance. A safety climate measure was distributed to manufacturing employees at the beginning of a behavioral safety initiative and redistributed one year later. Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that perceptions of the importance of safety training were predictive of actual levels of safety behavior. The results also demonstrate that the magnitude of change in perceptual safety climate scores will not necessarily match actual changes (r=0.56, n.s.) in employee's safety behavior. This study obtained empirical links between safety climate scores and actual safety behavior. Confirming and contradicting findings within the extant safety climate literature, the results strongly suggest that the hypothesized climate-behavior-accident path is not as clear cut as commonly assumed. A statistical link between safety climate perceptions and safety behavior will be obtained when sufficient behavioral data is collected. The study further supports the use of safety climate measures as useful diagnostic tools in ascertaining employee's perceptions of the way that safety is being operationalized.

  2. Predicting Extreme Droughts in Savannah Africa: A Comparison of Proxy and Direct Measures in Detecting Biomass Fluctuations, Trends and Their Causes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Western, David; Mose, Victor N; Worden, Jeffrey; Maitumo, David

    2015-01-01

    We monitored pasture biomass on 20 permanent plots over 35 years to gauge the reliability of rainfall and NDVI as proxy measures of forage shortfalls in a savannah ecosystem. Both proxies are reliable indicators of pasture biomass at the onset of dry periods but fail to predict shortfalls in prolonged dry spells. In contrast, grazing pressure predicts pasture deficits with a high degree of accuracy. Large herbivores play a primary role in determining the severity of pasture deficits and variation across habitats. Grazing pressure also explains oscillations in plant biomass unrelated to rainfall. Plant biomass has declined steadily and biomass per unit of rainfall has fallen by a third, corresponding to a doubling in grazing intensity over the study period. The rising probability of forage deficits fits local pastoral perceptions of an increasing frequency of extreme shortfalls. The decline in forage is linked to sedentarization, range loss and herbivore compression into drought refuges, rather than climate change. The results show that the decline in rangeland productivity and increasing frequency of pasture shortfalls can be ameliorated by better husbandry practices and reinforces the need for ground monitoring to complement remote sensing in forecasting pasture shortfalls.

  3. Fertilizer trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donaldson, R.

    1992-12-31

    This fourteenth edition of Fertilizer Trends presents historical fertilizer market data to aid industry, government, and financial market analysis and planners in their study of fertilizer and agricultural market cycles, market planning, and investment decisions. A 27-year summary of the US fertilizer market is presented in graphic and tabular form. Production, use, and trade data are included for each plant nutrient and sulfur. Canadian statistics have been included because of the important role of the Canadian fertilizer industry in the US fertilizer market. World production and consumption of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash are included because of the strong influence of world markets on the domestic market. Planted acreage and plant nutrient application rates for the major crops have been included to illustrate their effect on fertilizer use. Retail prices of the leading US fertilizer materials also are given.

  4. Current temporal trends in moth abundance are counter to predicted effects of climate change in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Mark D; Kozlov, Mikhail V; Itämies, Juhani; Pulliainen, Erkki; Bäck, Jaana; Kyrö, Ella-Maria; Niemelä, Pekka

    2014-06-01

    Changes in climate are influencing the distribution and abundance of the world's biota, with significant consequences for biological diversity and ecosystem processes. Recent work has raised concern that populations of moths and butterflies (Lepidoptera) may be particularly susceptible to population declines under environmental change. Moreover, effects of climate change may be especially pronounced in high latitude ecosystems. Here, we examine population dynamics in an assemblage of subarctic forest moths in Finnish Lapland to assess current trajectories of population change. Moth counts were made continuously over a period of 32 years using light traps. From 456 species recorded, 80 were sufficiently abundant for detailed analyses of their population dynamics. Climate records indicated rapid increases in temperature and winter precipitation at our study site during the sampling period. However, 90% of moth populations were stable (57%) or increasing (33%) over the same period of study. Nonetheless, current population trends do not appear to reflect positive responses to climate change. Rather, time-series models illustrated that the per capita rates of change of moth species were more frequently associated negatively than positively with climate change variables, even as their populations were increasing. For example, the per capita rates of change of 35% of microlepidoptera were associated negatively with climate change variables. Moth life-history traits were not generally strong predictors of current population change or associations with climate change variables. However, 60% of moth species that fed as larvae on resources other than living vascular plants (e.g. litter, lichen, mosses) were associated negatively with climate change variables in time-series models, suggesting that such species may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Overall, populations of subarctic forest moths in Finland are performing better than expected, and their populations

  5. Scenario Object Model Based On-Line Safety Analysis for Chemical Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Gao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available HAZOP (Hazard and Operability Analysis is a method of safety analysis, which is widely used in chemical processes. The conventional methods for safety analysis consist of human based safety analysis and computer aid safety analysis. All of them are off-line and qualitative and it is difficult to carry out on-line safety analysis. On-line safety analysis based on scenario object model was proposed for chemical processes. The scenario object model was built using ontology, by which the safety information can be transferred, reused and shared effectively. Deviation degree and qualitative trend were added to the model. Based on the model and new inference algorithm, on-line safety analysis can be implemented for chemical processes. Once a fault or abnormal event occurs, the causes can be traced and the consequences can be predicted. At the same time, semi-quantitative safety analysis is carried out. The resolution can be improved and it can help the operators handle the problems in time and effectively. The method was used for safety analysis of a reactor process and the effectiveness of the method was proved.

  6. Drug Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... over-the-counter drug. The FDA evaluates the safety of a drug by looking at Side effects ... clinical trials The FDA also monitors a drug's safety after approval. For you, drug safety means buying ...

  7. Trends from the Long-term Data Record and Models: What Do They Tell Us About our Ability to Predict Ozone Recovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan; Stolarski, Richard; Douglass, Anne; Steenrod, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Our industrial society has performed an experiment on the stratospheric ozone layer over the last several decades. The initial part of this experiment was the rapidly increasing release of halogen-containing compounds that carry chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere where they can cause a loss of ozone. The present part of this experiment is the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a leveling off of these halogen compounds and the beginning of their slow removal from the atmosphere. The observation and attribution of ozone response to the halogens has been a particularly important and difficult task because of the impact of solar cycle uv variation, two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Pinatubo), and interannual dynamic variability of the stratosphere. We have run 3 different simulations of the chemistry and transport of ozone and the minor constituents that affect ozone to help evaluate our understanding of the causes of ozone change and to assess our ability to predict ozone recovery with the removal of halogens from the stratosphere. One simulation, using the Goddard chemical transport model (CTM), had interannual variability in the dynamics for the entire 50 years of simulation, which included the past 3 decades (1974-2004) and the next 2 decades to 2022. The other two simulations used the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM with no dynamical variability: one used a the winds and temperatures from a repeating warm Arctic winter and the other used a repeating cold Arctic winter. All simulations included the effects of aerosol surfaces from volcanic eruptions on chemical reactions as well as the variation in UV over the 11-year solar cycle.

  8. State of the Art: Recent Legislation on Workers' Health and Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmeggiani, L.

    1982-01-01

    Reviews present trends in occupational health and safety legislation. Discusses the role of the state, the development of workers' participation, trends in the organization of occupational health services, and methods and objectives of occupational safety and health. (Author/JOW)

  9. Predicting the future. BGR develops a safety demonstration concept for a repository in claystone; In die Zukunft geblickt. BGR entwickelt Sicherheitsnachweiskonzept fuer ein Endlager im Tongestein

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mrugalla, Sabine [Bundesanstalt fuer Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe, Hannover (Germany). Fachbereich ' ' Langzeitsicherheit' '

    2016-05-15

    Radioactive waste is to be safely stored in deep geological formations for the long term. Experts are considering a period of one million years to demonstrate the safety of high-level radioactive waste. BGR scientists are currently developing a concept to enable them to systematically demonstrate the long-term safety of a repository in claystone. Two models simulate the typical geological situations in North and South Germany.

  10. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) and ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), 2014. The European Union Summary Report on Trends and Sources of Zoonoses, Zoonotic Agents and Food-borne Outbreaks in 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Helle; Helwigh, Birgitte; Sørensen, Anna Irene Vedel

    continuing to be high in broiler meat. The number of salmonellosis cases in humans decreased by 4.7 % compared with 2011. A statistically significant decreasing trend in the European Union was observed over the period 2008‑2012. In total, 91,034 confirmed human cases were reported in 2012. It is assumed...... compared with 2011, and 1,642 confirmed human cases were reported in 2012. A statistically significant increasing trend in the European Union was observed over the period 2008‑2012, though only slowly increasing, along with a seasonal pattern. As in previous years, a high fatality rate (17......, indicating the wide distribution of the parasite among different animal and wildlife species. One domestically acquired human case and one imported human case of rabies were reported in the European Union in 2012. The general decreasing trend in the total number of rabies cases in animals observed...

  11. Functional Safety Specification of Communication Profile PROFIsafe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Rofar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper maps the trends in area of safety-related communication within PROFIBUS and PROFINET industry networks. There are analyses safety measures and Fail-safe parameters of PROFIsafe profile in version V2 and their localisation in Safety Communication Layer SCL, which guarantees Safety Integrity Level SIL according to standard IEC 61508. The last chapter analyses the reaction in the event of fault during transmission of messages.

  12. European Food Safety Authority, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; The European Union Summary Report on Trends and Sources of Zoonoses, Zoonotic Agents and Food-borne Outbreaks in 2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Helle; Borck Høg, Birgitte; Helwigh, Birgitte

    The European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have analysed the information on the occurrence of zoonoses and food-borne outbreaks in 2009 submitted by 27 European Union Member States. In 2009, 108,614 salmonellosis cases in humans were reported and...

  13. Auto Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to Talk to Your Child About the News Gun Safety Too Late for the Flu Vaccine? Eating ... many local health departments, public safety groups, hospitals, law enforcement agencies, and fire departments have technicians or ...

  14. Water Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... School Counselors Kidney Stones Brain and Nervous System Water Safety KidsHealth > For Teens > Water Safety Print A ... tied to alcohol use. previous continue At the Water Park OK, so you do more splashing than ...

  15. Safety Plan

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The Swan Lake National Wildlife Refuge Safety Plan discusses policies for the safety of the station employees, volunteers, and public. This plan seeks to identify...

  16. Water Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Water Safety KidsHealth / For Parents / Water Safety What's in ... remains your best measure of protection. Making Kids Water Wise It's important to teach your kids proper ...

  17. The Safety Attitudes Questionnaire as a Tool for Benchmarking Safety Culture in the NICU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Profit, Jochen; Etchegaray, Jason; Petersen, Laura A; Sexton, J Bryan; Hysong, Sylvia J; Mei, Minghua; Thomas, Eric J

    2014-01-01

    background NICU safety culture, as measured by the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ), varies widely. Associations with clinical outcomes in the adult ICU setting make the SAQ an attractive tool for comparing clinical performance between hospitals. Little information is available on the use of the SAQ for this purpose in the NICU setting. objectives To determine whether the dimensions of safety culture measured by the SAQ give consistent results when used as a NICU performance measure. methods Cross-sectional survey of caregivers in twelve NICUs, using the six scales of the SAQ: teamwork climate, safety climate, job satisfaction, stress recognition, perceptions of management, and working conditions. NICUs were ranked by quantifying their contribution to overall risk-adjusted variation across the scales. Spearman Rank Correlation coefficients were used to test for consistency in scale performance. We then examined whether performance in the top four NICUs in one scale predicted top four performance in others. results There were 547 respondents in twelve NICUs. Of fifteen NICU-level correlations in performance ranking, two were greater than 0.7, seven were between 0.4 and 0.69, the six remaining were less than 0.4. We found a trend towards significance in comparing the distribution of performance in the top four NICUs across domains with a binomial distribution p = .051, indicating generally consistent performance across dimensions of safety culture. conclusion A culture of safety permeates many aspects of patient care and organizational functioning. The SAQ may be a useful tool for comparative performance assessments among NICUs. PMID:22337935

  18. The Impact of Child Safety Restraint Status and Age in Motor Vehicle Collisions in Predicting Type and Severity of Bone Fractures and Traumatic Injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftis, Christopher M; Sawyer, Jeffrey R; Eubanks, James W; Kelly, Derek M

    2017-12-01

    Although morbidity and mortality in children increases in motor vehicle collisions (MVC) if child restraints are not used, no data exist correlating specific injuries with proper or improper use of safety restraints or age. The purpose of this study was to evaluate correlations between childhood MVC injuries, age, and restraint status. A medical record search for pediatric patients involved in a MVC was conducted at a pediatric hospital (level 1 trauma). Charts were reviewed for demographics and injury-specific information. Patients were grouped by age, restraint use, and injuries. Nine hundred sixty-seven patients ≤12 years (average age 6.39 y) were identified. Being properly restrained was most common in all age groups except the 4- to 8-year age group in which being improperly restrained was most common. Unrestrained patients were most commonly found in the 9- to 12-year age group. A statistically significant difference was not observed for orthopaedic injuries among the restraint groups, but internal thoracic injuries, open head wound, and open upper extremity wounds were significantly more common in improperly or unrestrained patients. Improperly restrained infants had a significantly higher rate of intracranial bleeds and abrasions than those properly restrained. Unrestrained and improperly restrained 9- to 12-year olds had significantly more open head, open upper extremity, and vascular injuries. When comparing injury types with age groups, upper extremity fractures, femoral fractures, dislocations, and spinal fractures were found to be significantly higher in older children. Preventing orthopaedic injuries in older children may be accomplished by changes in regulations or automotive safety equipment. Rear-facing child safety seats could possibly be improved to prevent head trauma in the youngest patients. There is a continued need to reinforce the importance of proper use of child safety devices to parents. Knowledge of the patient's age, along with

  19. Fire safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert H. White; Mark A. Dietenberger

    1999-01-01

    Fire safety is an important concern in all types of construction. The high level of national concern for fire safety is reflected in limitations and design requirements in building codes. These code requirements are discussed in the context of fire safety design and evaluation in the initial section of this chapter. Since basic data on fire behavior of wood products...

  20. EFSA and ECDC (European Food Safety Authority and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), 2015. The European Union Summary Report on Trends and Sources of Zoonoses, Zoonotic Agents and Food-borne Outbreaks in 2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helwigh, Birgitte

    This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of the zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2013 in 32 European countries (28 Member States and four non-Member States). Campylobacter iosis was the most comm...... chain of tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium bovis, Brucella, Trichinella, Echinococcus, Toxoplasma , rabies, Coxiella burnetii (Q fever), West Nile Virus and tularaemia....

  1. Business process trends

    OpenAIRE

    von Rosing, Mark; Polovina, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Business process and business process management (BPM) concepts have matured over the years and new technology, concepts, standards and solutions appear. In this chapter\\ud we will therefore focus on the current and future process trends. We will elaborate on the importance of trends, the maturity of the subject, giving a perspective on what emerging trends, industry trends, mega trends are, what is hyped at the moment, and what has reached a market adoption where it has started to become the...

  2. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanco, Arthur S.; Gerlagh, Reyer; Suh, Sangwon; Barrett, John A.; de Coninck, Heleen; Diaz Morejon, Cristobal Felix; Mathur, Ritu; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Ahenkorah, Alfred Ofosu; Pan, Jiahua; Pathak, Himanshu; Rice, Jake; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Stern, David; Toth, Ferenc L.; Zhou, Peter

    2014-12-01

    Chapter 5 analyzes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends until the present and the main drivers that explain those trends. The chapter uses different perspectives to analyze past GHG-emissions trends, including aggregate emissions flows and per capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sectoral emissions, and territory-based vs. consumption-based emissions. In all cases, global and regional trends are analyzed. Where appropriate, the emission trends are contextualized with long-term historic developments in GHG emissions extending back to 1750.

  3. Protein-ligand interfaces are polarized: discovery of a strong trend for intermolecular hydrogen bonds to favor donors on the protein side with implications for predicting and designing ligand complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raschka, Sebastian; Wolf, Alex J; Bemister-Buffington, Joseph; Kuhn, Leslie A

    2018-02-12

    Understanding how proteins encode ligand specificity is fascinating and similar in importance to deciphering the genetic code. For protein-ligand recognition, the combination of an almost infinite variety of interfacial shapes and patterns of chemical groups makes the problem especially challenging. Here we analyze data across non-homologous proteins in complex with small biological ligands to address observations made in our inhibitor discovery projects: that proteins favor donating H-bonds to ligands and avoid using groups with both H-bond donor and acceptor capacity. The resulting clear and significant chemical group matching preferences elucidate the code for protein-native ligand binding, similar to the dominant patterns found in nucleic acid base-pairing. On average, 90% of the keto and carboxylate oxygens occurring in the biological ligands formed direct H-bonds to the protein. A two-fold preference was found for protein atoms to act as H-bond donors and ligand atoms to act as acceptors, and 76% of all intermolecular H-bonds involved an amine donor. Together, the tight chemical and geometric constraints associated with satisfying donor groups generate a hydrogen-bonding lock that can be matched only by ligands bearing the right acceptor-rich key. Measuring an index of H-bond preference based on the observed chemical trends proved sufficient to predict other protein-ligand complexes and can be used to guide molecular design. The resulting Hbind and Protein Recognition Index software packages are being made available for rigorously defining intermolecular H-bonds and measuring the extent to which H-bonding patterns in a given complex match the preference key.

  4. Patient safety curriculum in medical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Young-Mee

    2009-09-01

    Since release of the Institute of Medicine (IOM) report, To Err Is Human: Building a Safer System, patient safety has emerged as a global concern in the provision of quality health care. In response to growing recognition of the importance of patient safety, some medical schools in other countries have created and/or implemented patient safety curricula. In Korea, however, patient safety medical curriculum has not been actively discussed by medical educators. The purpose of this article is to introduce patient safety concepts and the global efforts on patient safety medical education. Specifically, this article describes; 1) current concepts in patient safety, 2) global trends of patient safety movement and education, 3) contents, instructional and assessment methods of patient safety education for both undergraduate medical education and graduate medical education, suggested in the previous studies, 4) WHO Patient Safety Guide for Medical Curriculum developed by the Medical Education Team within the World Alliance for Patient Safety and 5) known barriers against patient safety education. Patient safety is a major priority for all healthcare providers. In reality, however, teaching and learning about patient safety in medical curriculum offers a challenge to all medical schools, especially, the health care environment is not favorable to physicians such as Korea. More attention and recognition about patient safety by all health personnel and medical educators is needed. In addition, the national conversation about medical errors and patient safety and how best to incorporate it to the existing curriculum should be discussed.

  5. Safety Picks up "STEAM"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Ken

    2016-01-01

    This column shares safety information for the classroom. STEAM subjects--science, technology, engineering, art, and mathematics--are essential for fostering students' 21st-century skills. STEAM promotes critical-thinking skills, including analysis, assessment, categorization, classification, interpretation, justification, and prediction, and are…

  6. Safety Training: Basic safety courses

    CERN Document Server

    Laetitia Laddada

    2004-01-01

    Safety Training: Basic safety courses Due to the 50th anniversary events, basic safety courses are cancelled  during  week 43. We remind that in general, courses take place each Tuesday morning in French and Tuesday afternoon in English in Bdg.65-1-003. The duration of the course is 1h30. There are two half day sessions: 9 a.m. and 11 a.m. in French, and 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. in English. Thanks for your  understanding.  SC-DI FORMATION EN SECURITE SAFETY TRAINING Laetitia Laddada 73811 - 79236 safety.training@cern.ch

  7. Comparing two safety culture surveys: safety attitudes questionnaire and hospital survey on patient safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etchegaray, Jason M; Thomas, Eric J

    2012-06-01

    To examine the reliability and predictive validity of two patient safety culture surveys-Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ) and Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSOPS)-when administered to the same participants. Also to determine the ability to convert HSOPS scores to SAQ scores. Employees working in intensive care units in 12 hospitals within a large hospital system in the southern United States were invited to anonymously complete both safety culture surveys electronically. All safety culture dimensions from both surveys (with the exception of HSOPS's Staffing) had adequate levels of reliability. Three of HSOPS's outcomes-frequency of event reporting, overall perceptions of patient safety, and overall patient safety grade-were significantly correlated with SAQ and HSOPS dimensions of culture at the individual level, with correlations ranging from r=0.41 to 0.65 for the SAQ dimensions and from r=0.22 to 0.72 for the HSOPS dimensions. Neither the SAQ dimensions nor the HSOPS dimensions predicted the fourth HSOPS outcome-number of events reported within the last 12 months. Regression analyses indicated that HSOPS safety culture dimensions were the best predictors of frequency of event reporting and overall perceptions of patient safety while SAQ and HSOPS dimensions both predicted patient safety grade. Unit-level analyses were not conducted because indices did not indicate that aggregation was appropriate. Scores were converted between the surveys, although much variance remained unexplained. Given that the SAQ and HSOPS had similar reliability and predictive validity, investigators and quality and safety leaders should consider survey length, content, sensitivity to change and the ability to benchmark when selecting a patient safety culture survey.

  8. Safety; Avertissement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    This annual report of the Senior Inspector for the Nuclear Safety, analyses the nuclear safety at EDF for the year 1999 and proposes twelve subjects of consideration to progress. Five technical documents are also provided and discussed concerning the nuclear power plants maintenance and safety (thermal fatigue, vibration fatigue, assisted control and instrumentation of the N4 bearing, 1300 MW reactors containment and time of life of power plants). (A.L.B.)

  9. Marketing Trends to Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Circle, Alison

    2009-01-01

    This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

  10. Heroin: Statistics and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Science Adolescent Brain Comorbidity College-Age & Young Adults Criminal Justice Drugged Driving Drug Testing Drugs and the ... opioid overdose Statistics and Trends Swipe left or right to scroll. Monitoring the Future Study: Trends in ...

  11. Visit safety

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    Experiment areas, offices, workshops: it is possible to have co-workers or friends visit these places.     You already know about the official visits service, the VIP office, and professional visits. But do you know about the safety instruction GSI-OHS1, “Visits on the CERN site”? This is a mandatory General Safety Instruction that was created to assist you in ensuring safety for all your visits, whatever their nature—especially those that are non-official. Questions? The HSE Unit will be happy to answer them. Write to safety-general@cern.ch.   The HSE Unit

  12. Identification of Vehicle Health Assurance Related Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Evans, Joni K.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Leone, Karen M.; Reveley, Mary S.

    2014-01-01

    Trend analysis in aviation as related to vehicle health management (VHM) was performed by reviewing the most current statistical and prognostics data available from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident, and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident datasets. In addition, future directions in aviation technology related to VHM research areas were assessed through the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementations (SERFIs), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Most-Wanted List and recent open safety recommendations, the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics, and the Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) areas of change. Future research direction in the VHM research areas is evidently strong as seen from recent research solicitations from the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), and VHM-related technologies actively being developed by aviation industry leaders, including GE, Boeing, Airbus, and UTC Aerospace Systems. Given the highly complex VHM systems, modifications can be made in the future so that the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project (VSST) technical challenges address inadequate maintenance crew's trainings and skills, and the certification methods of such systems as recommended by the NTSB, NRC, and FAST areas of change.

  13. Artemisia umbelliformis Lam. and Génépi Liqueur: Volatile Profile as Diagnostic Marker for Geographic Origin and To Predict Liqueur Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggia, Lorenzo; Pignata, Giuseppe; Sgorbini, Barbara; Colombo, Maria Laura; Marengo, Arianna; Casale, Manuela; Nicola, Silvana; Bicchi, Carlo; Rubiolo, Patrizia

    2017-04-05

    Artemisia umbelliformis, commonly known as "white génépi", is characterized by a volatile fraction rich in α- and β-thujones, two monoterpenoids; under European Union (EU) regulations these are limited to 35 mg/L in Artemisia-based beverages because of their recognized activity on the human central nervous system. This study reports the results of an investigation to define the geographical origin and thujone content of individual plants of A. umbelliformis from different geographical sites, cultivated experimentally at a single site, and to predict the thujone content in the resulting liqueurs through their volatile fraction. Headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and non-separative HS-SPME-MS were used as analytical platforms to create a database suitable for chemometric description and prediction through linear discriminant analysis (LDA). HS-SPME-MS was applied to shorten analysis time. With both approaches, a diagnostic prediction of (i) plant geographical origin and (ii) thujone content of plant-related liqueurs could be made.

  14. Perceived organizational support for safety and employee safety voice: the mediating role of coworker support for safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Sean; Chmiel, Nik; Turner, Nick; Hershcovis, M Sandy; Stride, Chris B

    2008-10-01

    In the present study, we modeled 2 sources of safety support (perceived organizational support for safety and perceived coworker support for safety) as predictors of employee safety voice, that is, speaking out in an attempt to change unsafe working conditions. Drawing on social exchange and social impact theories, we hypothesized and tested a mediated model predicting employee safety voice using a cross-sectional survey of urban bus drivers (n = 213) in the United Kingdom. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that perceived coworker support for safety fully mediated the relationship between perceived organizational support for safety and employee safety voice. This study adds to the employee voice literature by evaluating the important role that coworkers can play in encouraging others to speak out about safety issues. Implications for research and practice related to change-oriented safety communication are discussed.

  15. Reliability of regional climate model trends

    OpenAIRE

    G. J. van Oldenborgh; Doblas Reyes, F. J.; Drijfhout, S.S.; Hawkins, Ed

    2013-01-01

    A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2011) in a recent multi-model ensemble of climate model simulation...

  16. Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Brian E.

    2013-01-01

    both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

  17. NASA trend analysis procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  18. Effectiveness and Safety of Entecavir or Tenofovir in a Spanish Cohort of Chronic Hepatitis B Patients: Validation of the Page-B Score to Predict Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riveiro-Barciela, Mar; Tabernero, David; Calleja, José L; Lens, Sabela; Manzano, María L; Rodríguez, Francisco Gea; Crespo, Javier; Piqueras, Belén; Pascasio, Juan M; Comas, Carmen; Gutierrez, Maria L; Aguirre, Alberto; Suárez, Emilio; García-Samaniego, Javier; Rivero, Miguel; Acero, Doroteo; Fernandez-Bermejo, Miguel; Moreno, Diego; Sánchez-Pobre, Pilar; de Cuenca, Beatriz; Moreno-Palomares, J J; Esteban, Rafael; Buti, Maria

    2017-03-01

    Long-term antiviral therapy has resulted in viral suppression and biochemical response in chronic hepatitis B, although the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma has not been abolished. The Page-B score could be useful to estimate the probability of HCC. To analyze the effectiveness and safety of entecavir or tenofovir for more than 4 years and the usefulness of Page-B score in the real-world setting. Analysis of Caucasian chronic hepatitis B subjects treated with entecavir or tenofovir from the prospective, multicenter database CIBERHEP. A total of 611 patients were enrolled: 187 received entecavir and 424 tenofovir. Most were men, mean age 50 years, 32% cirrhotic and 16.5% HBeAg-positive. Mean follow-up was 55 (entecavir) and 49 (tenofovir) months. >90% achieved HBV DNA <69 IU/mL and biochemical normalization by months 12 and 36, respectively. Cumulative HBeAg loss and anti-HBe seroconversion were achieved by 33.7 and 23.8%. Four patients lost HBsAg; three HBeAg-positive. Renal function remained stable on long-term follow-up. Fourteen (2.29%) developed HCC during follow-up all of them with baseline Page-B ≥10. Nine were diagnosed within the first 5 years of therapy. This contrasts with the 27 estimated by Page-B, a difference that highlights the importance of regular HCC surveillance even in patients with virological suppression. Entecavir and tenofovir achieved high biochemical and virological response. Renal function remained stable with both drugs. A Page-B cut-off ≥10 selected all patients at risk of HCC development.

  19. Nuclear Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silver, E G [ed.

    1989-01-01

    This document is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated.

  20. Safety pharmacology — Current and emerging concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamdam, Junnat; Sethu, Swaminathan; Smith, Trevor; Alfirevic, Ana; Alhaidari, Mohammad [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Atkinson, Jeffrey [Lorraine University Pharmacolor Consultants Nancy PCN (France); Ayala, Mimieveshiofuo; Box, Helen; Cross, Michael [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Delaunois, Annie [UCB Pharma (Belgium); Dermody, Ailsa; Govindappa, Karthik [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Guillon, Jean-Michel [Sanofi-aventis (France); Jenkins, Rosalind [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Kenna, Gerry [Astra-Zeneca (United Kingdom); Lemmer, Björn [Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg (Germany); Meecham, Ken [Huntingdon Life Sciences (United Kingdom); Olayanju, Adedamola [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Pestel, Sabine [Boehringer-Ingelheim (Germany); Rothfuss, Andreas [Roche (Switzerland); and others

    2013-12-01

    Safety pharmacology (SP) is an essential part of the drug development process that aims to identify and predict adverse effects prior to clinical trials. SP studies are described in the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) S7A and S7B guidelines. The core battery and supplemental SP studies evaluate effects of a new chemical entity (NCE) at both anticipated therapeutic and supra-therapeutic exposures on major organ systems, including cardiovascular, central nervous, respiratory, renal and gastrointestinal. This review outlines the current practices and emerging concepts in SP studies including frontloading, parallel assessment of core battery studies, use of non-standard species, biomarkers, and combining toxicology and SP assessments. Integration of the newer approaches to routine SP studies may significantly enhance the scope of SP by refining and providing mechanistic insight to potential adverse effects associated with test compounds. - Highlights: • SP — mandatory non-clinical risk assessments performed during drug development. • SP organ system studies ensure the safety of clinical participants in FiH trials. • Frontloading in SP facilitates lead candidate drug selection. • Emerging trends: integrating SP-Toxicological endpoints; combined core battery tests.

  1. Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2012-11-15

    In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

  2. Vaccine Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search The CDC Vaccine Safety Note: Javascript is disabled or is not ... CDC.gov . Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) New website and ...

  3. Food safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poor food safety practices can lead to foodborne illness. Symptoms of foodborne illnesses vary. They usually include stomach problems or stomach upset. Foodborne illnesses may be severe and fatal. Young children, older ...

  4. Trends in Web characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Miranda, João; Gomes, Daniel

    2009-01-01

    Abstract—The Web is permanently changing, with new technologies and publishing behaviors emerging everyday. It is important to track trends on the evolution of the Web to develop efficient tools to process its data. For instance, Web trends influence the design of browsers, crawlers and search engines. This study presents trends on the evolution of the Web derived from the analysis of 3 characterizations performed within an interval of 5 years. The Web portion used as a c...

  5. Robots' Safety

    OpenAIRE

    Pirttilahti, Juho

    2016-01-01

    Human-robot-collaboration is considered one of the answers to the flexible needs of more and more customizing manufacturing. Its purpose is to fit together the best qualities of both human and robots to reduce the cost and time of manufacturing. One of the key questions in this area is safety. The purpose of this thesis was to define the required safety functionality of cartesian, delta and articulated robots based on the current machine needs. Using the future robotic concepts investigat...

  6. Disentangling the roles of safety climate and safety culture: Multi-level effects on the relationship between supervisor enforcement and safety compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petitta, Laura; Probst, Tahira M; Barbaranelli, Claudio; Ghezzi, Valerio

    2017-02-01

    Despite increasing attention to contextual effects on the relationship between supervisor enforcement and employee safety compliance, no study has yet explored the conjoint influence exerted simultaneously by organizational safety climate and safety culture. The present study seeks to address this literature shortcoming. We first begin by briefly discussing the theoretical distinctions between safety climate and culture and the rationale for examining these together. Next, using survey data collected from 1342 employees in 32 Italian organizations, we found that employee-level supervisor enforcement, organizational-level safety climate, and autocratic, bureaucratic, and technocratic safety culture dimensions all predicted individual-level safety compliance behaviors. However, the cross-level moderating effect of safety climate was bounded by certain safety culture dimensions, such that safety climate moderated the supervisor enforcement-compliance relationship only under the clan-patronage culture dimension. Additionally, the autocratic and bureaucratic culture dimensions attenuated the relationship between supervisor enforcement and compliance. Finally, when testing the effects of technocratic safety culture and cooperative safety culture, neither safety culture nor climate moderated the relationship between supervisor enforcement and safety compliance. The results suggest a complex relationship between organizational safety culture and safety climate, indicating that organizations with particular safety cultures may be more likely to develop more (or less) positive safety climates. Moreover, employee safety compliance is a function of supervisor safety leadership, as well as the safety climate and safety culture dimensions prevalent within the organization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Safety first!

    CERN Multimedia

    2016-01-01

    Among the many duties I assumed at the beginning of the year was the ultimate responsibility for Safety at CERN: the responsibility for the physical safety of the personnel, the responsibility for the safe operation of the facilities, and the responsibility to ensure that CERN acts in accordance with the highest standards of radiation and environmental protection.   The Safety Policy document drawn up in September 2014 is an excellent basis for the implementation of Safety in all areas of CERN’s work. I am happy to commit during my mandate to help meet its objectives, not least by ensuring the Organization makes available the necessary means to achieve its Safety objectives. One of the main objectives of the HSE (Occupational Health and Safety and Environmental Protection) unit in the coming months is to enhance the measures to minimise CERN’s impact on the environment. I believe CERN should become a role model for an environmentally-aware scientific research laboratory. Risk ...

  8. Computer architecture technology trends

    CERN Document Server

    1991-01-01

    Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

  9. Development and test of a model linking safety-specific transformational leadership and occupational safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barling, Julian; Loughlin, Catherine; Kelloway, E Kevin

    2002-06-01

    The authors developed, tested, and replicated a model in which safety-specific transformational leadership predicted occupational injuries in 2 separate studies. Data from 174 restaurant workers (M age = 26.75 years, range = 15-64) were analyzed using structural equation modeling (LISREL 8; K. G. Jöreskog & D. Sörbom, 1993) and provided strong support for a model whereby safety-specific transformational leadership predicted occupational injuries through the effects of perceived safety climate, safety consciousness, and safety-related events. Study 2 replicated and extended this model with data from 164 young workers from diverse jobs (M age = 19.54 years, range = 14-24). Safety-specific transformational leadership and role overload were related to occupational injuries through the effects of perceived safety climate, safety consciousness, and safety-related events.

  10. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

    2018-01-01

    Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

  11. SAFETY INSTRUCTION AND SAFETY NOTE

    CERN Multimedia

    TIS Secretariat

    2002-01-01

    Please note that the SAFETY INSTRUCTION N0 49 (IS 49) and the SAFETY NOTE N0 28 (NS 28) entitled respectively 'AVOIDING CHEMICAL POLLUTION OF WATER' and 'CERN EXHIBITIONS - FIRE PRECAUTIONS' are available on the web at the following urls: http://edms.cern.ch/document/335814 and http://edms.cern.ch/document/335861 Paper copies can also be obtained from the TIS Divisional Secretariat, email: TIS.Secretariat@cern.ch

  12. System safety education focused on flight safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, E.

    1971-01-01

    The measures necessary for achieving higher levels of system safety are analyzed with an eye toward maintaining the combat capability of the Air Force. Several education courses were provided for personnel involved in safety management. Data include: (1) Flight Safety Officer Course, (2) Advanced Safety Program Management, (3) Fundamentals of System Safety, and (4) Quantitative Methods of Safety Analysis.

  13. Trends Shaping Education 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    OECD Publishing (NJ3), 2010

    2010-01-01

    "Trends Shaping Education 2010" brings together evidence showing the effects on education of globalisation, social challenges, changes in the workplace, the transformation of childhood, and ICT. To make the content accessible, each trend is presented on a double page, containing an introduction, two charts with brief descriptive text and a set of…

  14. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

  15. Std trends in chengalpattu hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishnamurthy V

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6% were males and 928 (20.4% were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4% in men and Syphillis (29% in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4% ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

  16. Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Chien-tsug; Wetmore, Michael; Przetak, Robert

    2006-01-01

    The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

  17. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    Traditionally, turbulence is considered as a stationary stochastic process imposed on a given constant mean wind speed. However, measured (raw) turbulence intensities often display the characteristics of a non-stationary process, where the mean wind speed changes slowly with time. The change...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...

  18. Characterizing and enhancing the safety of future plastic and composite intensive vehicles (PCIVs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    There is concern that a trend toward smaller, lighter, fuel-efficient vehicles could adversely affect overall fleet safety. Since 2006, the U.S. Congress has directed the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to examine the possible safet...

  19. Inferring population trends of Araucaria angustifolia (Araucariaceae ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study sought to investigate life-history trends of an A. angustifolia population in a subtropical forest in Santa Catarina, Brazil. Predictions based on the Lozenge regeneration ... The population had λ = 0.9977 (0.9864 < λ < 1.0020; CI 95%), indicating a declining stability. The basal area remained stable, whereas tree ...

  20. [Future trends of urbanization in the Philippines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otomo, A

    1982-09-01

    The author uses a Markov chain model to predict the future rate of urbanization in the Philippines based on current migration trends. The model suggests that urbanization will level off at about 52.5 percent, which is below the current level in Western societies. A major concentration in the Manila metropolitan area is also projected. (summary in ENG)

  1. The Nuclear Safety Council in the National System of Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies. Functions, organization and new international trends; El Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear en el Sistema Nacional de Emergencias Nucleares y Radiológicas. Funciones, organización y nuevas tendencias internacionales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mozas García, A.; Martín Calvarro, J.M.; García Cadierno, J.P.; Calvín Cuartero, M.

    2015-07-01

    This article describes the role of the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) in the coordination of nuclear and radiológicas emergencies, and how they engage with the National Nuclear and Radiological Emergency System. To accomplish its functions, the CSN, has set up the Emergency Response Organization (ORE), which structure, functions and procedures are also described in this work. Finally, the new international trends that are being developed on emergency preparedness and response as a consequence of the lessons learned from recent disasters are reported. [Spanish] Este artículo revisa las funciones que el Consejo de Seguridad tiene en la coordinación de las emergencias nucleares y radiológicas, y cómo se engranan éstas en el Sistema Nacional de Emergencias. A partir de las funciones que tiene encomendadas se describe la organización del CSN en emergencias y la estructura de los apoyos con los que cuenta para cumplir con aquéllas. Por último, se revisan las tendencias que, a nivel internacional, se están desarrollando para incorporar a la preparación de la respuesta a emergencias las lecciones aprendidas de las últimas catástrofes ocurridas.

  2. Playground Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipes, James L.

    2000-01-01

    Discusses the issues of risk, liability, and fun when landscaping playgrounds with safety in mind. The importance of playground surfaces and several preventive measures landscapers can use to reduce the risk of injury are discussed. Concluding comments address playground design features and liability. (GR)

  3. Safety Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoot, James L.; Bartkowiak, Elaine T.

    1994-01-01

    Lists 72 organizations and programs that deal with child safety, grouped by the following categories: (1) general; (2) general violence; (3) gun violence; (4) media violence; (5) drugs and alcohol; (6) child abuse and at-risk children; (7) parenting programs; (8) community service programs; (9) leadership programs; (10) peer counseling; (11)…

  4. Patient safety

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    medical error and patient harm. The patient safety movement is now 13 years old, led by the publication of the US. Institute of Medicine (IOM) Report To Err is Human.1 The basic premise at the time was that annually up to 98 000 Americans were estimated to have died because of medical error (although this calculation.

  5. Healthy food trends -- kale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healthy food trends - borecole; Healthy snacks - kale; Weight loss - kale; Healthy diet - kale; Wellness - kale ... drugs), you may need to limit vitamin K foods. Vitamin K can affect how these medicines work. ...

  6. Healthy food trends -- quinoa

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000731.htm Healthy food trends -- quinoa To use the sharing features on ... Nutrition Browse the Encyclopedia A.D.A.M., Inc. is accredited by URAC, also known as the ...

  7. Healthy food trends -- flaxseeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000728.htm Healthy food trends -- flaxseeds To use the sharing features on ... Nutrition Browse the Encyclopedia A.D.A.M., Inc. is accredited by URAC, also known as the ...

  8. Health Plans - Trend Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This page contains several useful trend and competition indicators. Certain files will be updated monthly while others will be updated quarterly. The files are the...

  9. Trends in communications satellites

    CERN Document Server

    Curtin, Denis J

    1979-01-01

    Trends in Communications Satellites offers a comprehensive look at trends and advances in satellite communications, including experimental ones such as NASA satellites and those jointly developed by France and Germany. The economic aspects of communications satellites are also examined. This book consists of 16 chapters and begins with a discussion on the fundamentals of electrical communications and their application to space communications, including spacecraft, earth stations, and orbit and wavelength utilization. The next section demonstrates how successful commercial satellite communicati

  10. Work safety climate and safety practices among immigrant Latino residential construction workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcury, Thomas A; Mills, Thomas; Marín, Antonio J; Summers, Phillip; Quandt, Sara A; Rushing, Julia; Lang, Wei; Grzywacz, Joseph G

    2012-08-01

    Latino residential construction workers experience high rates of occupational fatality and injury. Work safety climate is an especially important consideration for improving the safety of these immigrant workers. This analysis describes work safety climate among Latino residential construction workers, delineates differences in work safety climate by personal and employment characteristics, and determines associations of work safety climate with specific work safety behaviors. Data are from a cross-sectional survey of 119 Latino residential framers, roofers, and general construction workers in western North Carolina; 90 of these participants also provided longitudinal daily diary data for up to 21 days using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system. Measures included the Perceived Safety Climate Scale, and daily reports of five individual and five collective safety practices. Work safety climate was mixed among workers, with roofers (19.9) having lower levels than framers (24.3) or general construction workers (24.3). Days reported for several individual (glove-related risks, not doing something known to be unsafe) and collective safety practices (attended daily safety meeting, not needing to use damaged equipment, not seeing coworker create an unsafe situation) were positively associated with work safety climate. Work safety climate predicts subsequent safety behaviors among Latino residential construction workers, with differences by trade being particularly important. Interventions are needed to improve safety training for employers as well as workers. Further research should expand the number of workers and trades involved in analyses of work safety climate. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Safety climate and self-reported injury: assessing the mediating role of employee safety control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Ho, Michael; Smith, Gordon S; Chen, Peter Y

    2006-05-01

    To further reduce injuries in the workplace, companies have begun focusing on organizational factors which may contribute to workplace safety. Safety climate is an organizational factor commonly cited as a predictor of injury occurrence. Characterized by the shared perceptions of employees, safety climate can be viewed as a snapshot of the prevailing state of safety in the organization at a discrete point in time. However, few studies have elaborated plausible mechanisms through which safety climate likely influences injury occurrence. A mediating model is proposed to link safety climate (i.e., management commitment to safety, return-to-work policies, post-injury administration, and safety training) with self-reported injury through employees' perceived control on safety. Factorial evidence substantiated that management commitment to safety, return-to-work policies, post-injury administration, and safety training are important dimensions of safety climate. In addition, the data support that safety climate is a critical factor predicting the history of a self-reported occupational injury, and that employee safety control mediates the relationship between safety climate and occupational injury. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating organizational factors and workers' characteristics in efforts to improve organizational safety performance.

  12. Safety Note

    CERN Multimedia

    SC Secretariat

    2004-01-01

    Please note that the Safety Note no 29 (NS 29) entitled 'Fire Prevention for Insulating Core (Sandwich) Panel Structures for Inside Use Guidelines for Selection, Installation and Use' is available on the web at the following url: https://edms.cern.ch/document/475438/LAST_RELEASED Paper copies can also be obtained from the SC Unit secretariat, e-mail : sc.secretariat@cern.ch SC Secretariat

  13. Nuclear safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2014-07-01

    The Program on Nuclear Safety comprehends Radioprotection, Radioactive Waste Management and Nuclear Material Control. These activities are developed at the Nuclear Safety Directory. The Radioactive Waste Management Department (GRR) was formally created in 1983, to promote research and development, teaching and service activities in the field of radioactive waste. Its mission is to develop and employ technologies to manage safely the radioactive wastes generated at IPEN and at its customer’s facilities all over the country, in order to protect the health and the environment of today's and future generations. The Radioprotection Service (GRP) aims primarily to establish requirements for the protection of people, as workers, contractors, students, members of the general public and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation. Furthermore, it also aims to establish the primary criteria for the safety of radiation sources at IPEN and planning and preparing for response to nuclear and radiological emergencies. The procedures about the management and the control of exposures to ionizing radiation are in compliance with national standards and international recommendations. Research related to the main activities is also performed. The Nuclear Material Control has been performed by the Safeguard Service team, which manages the accountability and the control of nuclear material at IPEN facilities and provides information related to these activities to ABACC and IAEA. (author)

  14. Trends in Firearm Safety - Do They Correlate with Fewer Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-17

    nonstranger homicide rate [5]. This correlation has called many to request greater regulation of firearms within the USA and lead to hotly contested...are two basic arguments in the debate concerning fire- arm regulation. One is the idea that if more guns lead to more homicides and suicides, then it...use firearms in an effort to decrease such violence. Proponents of this argument point to the fact that most victims of gun violence are children and

  15. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  16. Improving safety culture through the health and safety organization: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Kent J

    2014-02-01

    International research indicates that internal health and safety organizations (HSO) and health and safety committees (HSC) do not have the intended impact on companies' safety performance. The aim of this case study at an industrial plant was to test whether the HSO can improve company safety culture by creating more and better safety-related interactions both within the HSO and between HSO members and the shop-floor. A quasi-experimental single case study design based on action research with both quantitative and qualitative measures was used. Based on baseline mapping of safety culture and the efficiency of the HSO three developmental processes were started aimed at the HSC, the whole HSO, and the safety representatives, respectively. Results at follow-up indicated a marked improvement in HSO performance, interaction patterns concerning safety, safety culture indicators, and a changed trend in injury rates. These improvements are interpreted as cultural change because an organizational double-loop learning process leading to modification of the basic assumptions could be identified. The study provides evidence that the HSO can improve company safety culture by focusing on safety-related interactions. © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council.

  17. Demographic trends in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2004-08-01

    Full Text Available In the present note, we present the main features of recent trends in vital family-demographic behavior in Sweden. For this purpose, published indices of marriage, divorce, and childbearing risks by calendar year are updated by adding another two or three years of observation to our series. We demonstrate that the latest trend reversal in Swedish birth rates, which occurred at the end of the 1990s, continued to manifest itself in increasing propensities for childbearing during the early years of the 21st century. The rise pertains to all birth orders. Marriage propensities showed an increase as well, however, to a large extent expressed in a short-term development that was prevalent at the turn of the millennium. The previous long-term trend of rising divorce risks leveled off during the first two years of the new century.

  18. Temporal trends in sperm count

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson

    2017-01-01

    , method of measuring SC and semen volume, exclusion criteria and indicators of completeness of covariate data]. The slopes of SC and TSC were estimated as functions of sample collection year using both simple linear regression and weighted meta-regression models and the latter were adjusted for pre......-determined covariates and modification by fertility and geographic group. Assumptions were examined using multiple sensitivity analyses and nonlinear models. OUTCOMES: SC declined significantly between 1973 and 2011 (slope in unadjusted simple regression models -0.70 million/ml/year; 95% CI: -0.72 to -0.69; P ...BACKGROUND: Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: To provide a systematic review and meta-regression...

  19. Incorporating Traffic Control and Safety Hardware Performance Functions into Risk-based Highway Safety Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongzhi Li

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Traffic control and safety hardware such as traffic signs, lighting, signals, pavement markings, guardrails, barriers, and crash cushions form an important and inseparable part of highway infrastructure affecting safety performance. Significant progress has been made in recent decades to develop safety performance functions and crash modification factors for site-specific crash predictions. However, the existing models and methods lack rigorous treatments of safety impacts of time-deteriorating conditions of traffic control and safety hardware. This study introduces a refined method for computing the Safety Index (SI as a means of crash predictions for a highway segment that incorporates traffic control and safety hardware performance functions into the analysis. The proposed method is applied in a computation experiment using five-year data on nearly two hundred rural and urban highway segments. The root-mean square error (RMSE, Chi-square, Spearman’s rank correlation, and Mann-Whitney U tests are employed for validation.

  20. Food safety

    OpenAIRE

    VRABCOVÁ, Kateřina

    2012-01-01

    In the diploma thesis I was dealing with the issue of food safety in the Czech Republic and labeling of meat products. In the practical part were carried out two surveys, public opinion poll and survey of proper labeling of meat products. Opinion polls were attended by 462 consumers and analysis of proper labelling was subjected to 489 meat products in select retail chains in Prague. Survey results of labeling of meat products were not very positive, but can be expected to improve, as well as...

  1. Safety training

    CERN Document Server

    SC Unit

    2009-01-01

    Habilitation électrique A course entitled "Habilitation électrique pour personnel de laboratoire" (electrical safety qualification for laboratory personnel) will be held on 22 and 23 June. Registration by e-mail to isabelle.cusato@cern.ch. Explosion Hazards in the handling of flammable solvents and gases A course entitled "Explosion Hazards in the handling of flammable solvents and gases" given in French will be held on 18-19 June 2009. This course is obligatory for all FGSOs at CERN, and it is recommended for anyone handling flammable gas or solvents. To sign up please visit this page. For more information please contact Isabelle Cusato, tel. 73811.

  2. Programming Useful Life Prediction (PULP) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Accurately predicting Remaining Useful Life (RUL) provides significant benefits—it increases safety and reduces financial and labor resource requirements....

  3. Safety first

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

    Safety is a priority for CERN. That is a message I conveyed in my New Year’s address and that I reiterated at one of the first Enlarged Directorate meetings of 2012 when I outlined five key safety objectives for the year, designed and implemented according to accepted international standards.   As we move from spring to summer, it’s time to take stock of how we are doing. Objective number one for 2012, which overarches everything else, is to limit the number of incidents in the workplace. That means systematically investigating and acting on every incident that involves work stoppage, along with all the most frequent workplace accidents: falls, trips and slips. The performance indicator we set ourselves is the percentage of investigations and follow-ups completed. Year on year, these figures are rising but we can never be complacent, and must strive to reach and sustain 100% follow-up. The second objective is to improve hazard control, with a focus in 2012 on chemical ha...

  4. The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

    2017-07-01

    Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

  5. The potentially emerging food safety issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prandini, A.; Sigolo, S.; Kleter, G.A.; Marvin, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Within the SAFE FOODS project, an analysis of data notified to RASFF was carried out in order to explore the possibility to identify emerging trends in food safety hazards (Kleter et al., 2009). Kleter et al. (2009) used data from weekly overviews of the notifications during a four-year period from

  6. Evolutionary trends in Heteroptera

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cobben, R.H.

    1968-01-01

    1. This work, the first volume of a series dealing with evolutionary trends in Heteroptera, is concerned with the egg system of about 400 species. The data are presented systematically in chapters 1 and 2 with a critical review of the literature after each family.

    2. Chapter 3 evaluates facts

  7. Tropospheric ozone trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guicherit, R.; Roemer, M.

    2000-01-01

    Anthropogenic emissions of chemical reactive trace gases have substantially altered the composition of the troposphere. These perturbations have caused tropospheric O3 increases, in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. It remains, however, difficult to accurately establish O3 trends throughout the

  8. Travel and tourism trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    1995-01-01

    Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

  9. Ten Top Tech Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLester, Susan

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the major technical issues, products, and practices of the day. The top ten tech trends are listed and discussed. These include: (1) data mining; (2) cyberbullying; (3) 21st century skills; (4) digital content; (5) learning at leisure; (6) personal responders; (7) mobile tools; (8) bandwidth; (9) open-source…

  10. Trends in cerebral palsy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, E

    2001-05-01

    The terms trend and cerebral palsy are defined emphazing the non-diagnostic nature of the cerebral palsy label. Criteria necessary for valid estimation of trends include constant methods of estimating population based numerators and denominators over a number of years, which render them hard to obtain, particularly in developing countries. Trends in cerebral palsy are an important source of aetiological hypotheses for congenital cerebral palsy, provide corroborative evidence for existing hypotheses and may direct strategies to prevent post neonatally acquired cerebral palsy. In developed countries the overall frequency of congenital cerebral palsy has changed little during the last decades. However this masks a dramatic increase in the frequency in the infants born most preterm, a decline in those born moderately preterm and little change in those born at term, but the severity of impairments of those born very preterm is decreasing while for those born at term severity in increasing. These changes may be the result of the increasing ability of perinatal care to rescue very vulnerable infants. There is less agreement in trends of post neonatally acquired cerebral palsy which are more sensitive to social well being.

  11. Trends in Nuclear Astrophysics

    OpenAIRE

    Schatz, Hendrik

    2016-01-01

    Nuclear Astrophysics is a vibrant field at the intersection of nuclear physics and astrophysics that encompasses research in nuclear physics, astrophysics, astronomy, and computational science. This paper is not a review. It is intended to provide an incomplete personal perspective on current trends in nuclear astrophysics and the specific role of nuclear physics in this field.

  12. Laser Cutting, Development Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Flemming Ove

    1999-01-01

    In this paper a short review of the development trends in laser cutting will be given.The technology, which is the fastest expanding industrial production technology will develop in both its core market segment: Flat bed cutting of sheet metal, as it will expand in heavy industry and in cutting...

  13. Cotton trends in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Cotton trends in India. A crop of significant economic importance, valued at over Rs. 15000 Crs. Provides income to 60 million people. Crucial raw material for Rs 83000 Crores textile industry out of which Rs 45754 crores is exports. Approx. 20 Million acres of cotton provides ...

  14. Trends in Therapeutic Recreation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Ralph W.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the implications of the rapid, dramatic changes taking place in therapeutic recreation for individuals with physical disabilities. The article notes the impact of changes in managed care, examines programming trends in therapeutic recreation (adventure/outdoor education, competitive sports, handcycling, health enhancement activities, and…

  15. Trends in ICT 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessel, Paul van; Rust, Christa

    2003-01-01

    The study "Trends in ICT 2003" surveyed Dutch managers about important IT aspects. Results of the study are presented in brief. Topics treated are security, privacy, e-commerce, use of intranet, monitoring of employee WWW use, who makes IT decisions, implementation of contingency plans, the cause of

  16. [Development trend of nanomedicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kumiko

    2013-01-01

    Nanotechnology has had a great impact on science, technology, and society since 2000, and its applications in medicine are also progressing in the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of disease. In this review, international trends in nanomedicine regulation are introduced, including the definition of nanomedicines and the evaluation of liposomes and iron nanoparticles.

  17. Lung Cancer Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Shareable Graphics Infographics “African-American Men and Lung Cancer” “Lung Cancer Is the Biggest Cancer Killer in Both ... Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal (Colon) Ovarian Prostate Skin Cancer Home Lung Cancer Trends Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on ...

  18. Outdoor recreation participation trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Ken Cordell; Barbara L. McDonald; R. Jeff Teasley; John C. Bergstrom; Jack Martin; Jim Bason; Vernon R. Leeworthy

    1999-01-01

    As part of the national assessment of outdoor recreation trends, the authors have taken a look at participation patterns and levels of participation across activities and across segments of our society. The primary source of data is the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment (NSRE). The NSRE is the latest in the continuing series of National Recreation...

  19. Trends in corporate greening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning; Ulhøi, John Parm

    , if a general change of attitude has taken place in the business community or if companies just comply with the required minimum standard set by legislation. Based on a series of surveys this paper reports on the trends in implementing corporate environmental management in Danish industry up till the entrance...... of the new millennium in order to indicate how practice has evolved....

  20. Trends & Indicators: Enrollment Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harney, John O.

    2011-01-01

    Since New England Board of Higher Education (NEBHE) began publishing tables and charts exploring "Trends & Indicators" in New England higher education more than a half-century ago, few figures have grabbed as much attention as college "enrollment" data. These local, state, regional and national data go beyond simple…

  1. Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

    2016-06-01

    An innovative approach to safety analysis of multistate ageing systems is presented. Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the consecutive "m out of n: F" is presented as well.

  2. Wireless Tech Trends 2010. Trend: smartphones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamble, Kate Huvane

    2010-02-01

    THE LANDSCAPE: Physician use of handhelds is by no means a new concept. But as the devices--particularly the RIM BlackBerry, Apple iPhone and Google Android--become more sophisticated and more applications become available, the game is changing, quickly. And with so many hospitals upgrading their infrastructures to offer ubiquitous wireless coverage, clinicians are using smartphones in the hospital setting to access online tools such as drug references, and communicate with colleagues. For ClOs, it's a no-brainer--physicians and nurses are already carrying these devices, so why not capitalize on the trend by enabling users to access clinical information and link to patient records. A number of organizations have adopted this thinking and are on the road to enabling EMR access via mobile devices. And while there are certainly sticking points, it's an area that many say is poised for significant growth in the next few years. Many innovative organizations are looking to provide access to electronic records and other clinical data through smartphones. Plans are already being formulated to leverage the devices to facilitate patient handoff and sign-out, as well as to link charge capture with quality measures. Cutting-edge organizations are looking to create actionable information for clinicians through software that can analyze data, track patients'progress, and send out alerts when conditions worsen.

  3. Divergent effects of transformational and passive leadership on employee safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelloway, E Kevin; Mullen, Jane; Francis, Lori

    2006-01-01

    The authors concurrently examined the impact of safety-specific transformational leadership and safety-specific passive leadership on safety outcomes. First, the authors demonstrated via confirmatory factor analysis that safety-specific transformational leadership and safety-specific passive leadership are empirically distinct constructs. Second, using hierarchical regression, the authors illustrated, contrary to a stated corollary of transformational leadership theory (B. M. Bass, 1997), that passive leadership contributes incrementally to the prediction of organizationally relevant outcomes, in this case safety-related variables, beyond transformational leadership alone. Third, further analyses via structural equation modeling showed that both transformational and passive leadership have opposite effects on safety climate and safety consciousness, and these variables, in turn, predict safety events and injuries. Implications for research and application are discussed. Copyright 2006 APA.

  4. Construction safety

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Rita Yi Man

    2013-01-01

    A close-to-ideal blend of suburb and city, speedy construction of towers of Babylon, the sparkling proportion of glass and steel buildings’ facade at night showcase the wisdom of humans. They also witness the footsteps, sweats and tears of architects and engineers. Unfortunately, these signatures of human civilizations are swathed in towering figures of construction accidents. Fretting about these on sites, different countries adopt different measures on sites. This book firstly sketches the construction accidents on sites, followed by a review on safety measures in some of the developing countries such as Bermuda, Egypt, Kuwait and China; as well as developed countries, for example, the United States, France and Singapore. It also highlights the enormous compensation costs with the courts’ experiences in the United Kingdom and Hong Kong.

  5. Safety first

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harvie, W.

    1997-06-01

    Expansion of international business opportunities for Canadian producers and service companies brings with it a dimension almost never considered on home base - security. It was pointed out that once abroad, safety and defence of people and equipment can become significant problems in many parts of the world. The nature of the security risks involved, and how best to deal with them, were discussed. The use of consultants, mostly foreign ones to date, and the kind of assistance they can provide, everything from written reports on the local situation to counter surveillance training, and bodyguard services, have been described. Examples of recent involvements with guerilla groups demanding `revolutionary war taxes`, kidnapping executives for ransom, due diligence investigations of potential partners, and the like, have been provided to illustrate the unique character of the problem, and the constant need for being alert, educated to risks, and being prepared to react to risk situations.

  6. Predicting Pilot Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-15

    forever… Gig ‘Em! Dale W. Stanley III vii Table of Contents Page Acknowledgments...over the last 20 years. Airbus predicted that these trends would continue as emerging economies , especially in Asia, were creating a fast growing...US economy , pay differential and hiring by the major airlines contributed most to the decision to separate from the Air Force (Fullerton, 2003: 354

  7. Global safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorien J. DeTombe

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Global Safety is a container concept referring to various threats such as HIV/Aids, floods and terrorism; threats with different causes and different effects. These dangers threaten people, the global economy and the slity of states. Policy making for this kind of threats often lack an overview of the real causes and the interventions are based on a too shallow analysis of the problem, mono-disciplinary and focus mostly only on the effects. It would be more appropriate to develop policy related to these issues by utilizing the approaches, methods and tools that have been developed for complex societal problems. Handling these complex societal problems should be done multidisciplinary instead of mono-disciplinary. In order to give politicians the opportunity to handle complex problems multidisciplinary, multidisciplinary research institutes should be created. These multidisciplinary research institutes would provide politicians with better approaches to handle this type of problem. In these institutes the knowledge necessary for the change of these problems can be created through the use of the Compram methodology which has been developed specifically for handling complex societal problems. In a six step approach, experts, actors and policymakers discuss the content of the problem and the possible changes. The framework method uses interviewing, the Group Decision Room, simulation models and scenario's in a cooperative way. The methodology emphasizes the exchange of knowledge and understanding by communication among and between the experts, actors and politicians meanwhile keeping emotion in mind. The Compram methodology will be further explained in relation to global safety in regard to terrorism, economy, health care and agriculture.

  8. Influence of safety motivation and climate on safety behaviour and outcomes: evidence from the Saudi Arabian construction industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak; Al-Haadir, Saeed; Stewart, Rodney A

    2017-03-01

    Over the last three decades, safety literature has focused on safety climate and its role in forecasting injuries and accidents. However, research findings regarding the relationships between safety climate and other key outcome constructs are somewhat inconsistent. Recent safety climate literature suggests that examining the role of safety motivation may help provide a better explanation of such relationships. The research presented in this article aimed to empirically analyse the relationships among safety motivation, safety climate, safety behaviour and safety outcomes within the context of the Saudi Arabian construction industry. A conceptual model was developed to examine the relationships among four main constructs: safety motivation, safety climate, safety behaviour and safety outcomes. Based on the survey data collected in Saudi Arabia from site engineers and project managers (n = 295), statistical analyses were carried out, including confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, and structural equation modelling to assess the model and test the hypotheses. The main results indicated that safety motivation could positively influence safety behaviour through safety climate, which plays a mediating role for this mechanism. The results also confirmed that safety behaviour could predict safety outcomes within the context of the Saudi Arabian construction industry.

  9. Safety-critical Java for embedded systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoeberl, Martin; Dalsgaard, Andreas Engelbredt; Hansen, René Rydhof

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the motivation for and outcomes of an engineering research project on certifiable Javafor embedded systems. The project supports the upcoming standard for safety-critical Java, which defines asubset of Java and libraries aiming for development of high criticality systems....... The outcome of this projectinclude prototype safety-critical Java implementations, a time-predictable Java processor, analysis tools formemory safety, and example applications to explore the usability of safety-critical Java for this applicationarea. The text summarizes developments and key contributions...

  10. Secular trends in growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fudvoye, Julie; Parent, Anne-Simone

    2017-06-01

    Human adult height has been increasing world-wide for a century and a half. The rate of increase depends on time and place of measurement. Final height appears to have reached a plateau in Northern European countries but it is still increasing in southern European countries as well as Japan. While mean birth length has not changed recently in industrialized countries, the secular trend finally observed in adult height mostly originates during the first 2 years of life. Secular trend in growth is a marker of public health and provides insights into the interaction between growth and environment. It has been shown to be affected by income, social status, infections and nutrition. While genetic factors cannot explain such rapid changes in average population height, epigenetic factors could be the link between growth and environment. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  11. Electricity market modeling trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ventosa, Mariano E-mail: mariano.ventosa@iit.upco.es; Baillo, Alvaro; Ramos, Andres; Rivier, Michel

    2005-05-01

    The trend towards competition in the electricity sector has led to efforts by the research community to develop decision and analysis support models adapted to the new market context. This paper focuses on electricity generation market modeling. Its aim is to help to identify, classify and characterize the somewhat confusing diversity of approaches that can be found in the technical literature on the subject. The paper presents a survey of the most relevant publications regarding electricity market modeling, identifying three major trends: optimization models, equilibrium models and simulation models. It introduces a classification according to their most relevant attributes. Finally, it identifies the most suitable approaches for conducting various types of planning studies or market analysis in this new context.

  12. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  13. Linking Safety Analysis to Safety Requirements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kirsten Mark

    Software for safety critical systems must deal with the hazards identified by safety analysistechniques: Fault trees, event trees,and cause consequence diagrams can be interpreted as safety requirements and used in the design activity. We propose that the safety analysis and the system design use...... the same system model and that this model is formalized in a real-time, interval logic, based on a conventional dynamic systems model with a state over time. The three safety analysis techniques are interpreted in this model and it is shown how to derive safety requirements for components of a system....

  14. CERN's new safety policy

    CERN Multimedia

    2014-01-01

    The documents below, published on 29 September 2014 on the HSE website, together replace the document SAPOCO 42 as well as Safety Codes A1, A5, A9, A10, which are no longer in force. As from the publication date of these documents any reference made to the document SAPOCO 42 or to Safety Codes A1, A5, A9 and A10 in contractual documents or CERN rules and regulations shall be deemed to constitute a reference to the corresponding provisions of the documents listed below.   "The CERN Safety Policy" "Safety Regulation SR-SO - Responsibilities and organisational structure in matters of Safety at CERN" "General Safety Instruction GSI-SO-1 - Departmental Safety Officer (DSO)" "General Safety Instruction GSI-SO-2 - Territorial Safety Officer (TSO)" "General Safety Instruction GSI-SO-3 - Safety Linkperson (SLP)" "General Safety Instruction GSI-SO-4 - Large Experiment Group Leader In Matters of Safety (LEXGLI...

  15. Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokol, Peter

    2017-07-01

    Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians. The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis. The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies. Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.

  16. Safety aspects for underwater vehicles

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Madhan, R.; Navelkar, G.S.; Desa, E.S.; Afzulpurkar, S.; Prabhudesai, S.P.; Dabholkar, N.; Mascarenhas, A.A.M.Q.; Maurya, P.

    Author version: In "Trends in intelligent robotics. 13th FIRA Robot World Congress, FIRA 2010, Bangalore, India, September 15-17, 2010. Proceedings." eds. by: Vadakkepat, P.; Kim, J.-H.; Jesse, N.; Al Mamun, A.; Kiong, T.K.; Baltes, J.; Anderson, J.... Key words: AUV, AVP, safety, collision 1. Introduction: AUVs are free-swimming marine robots that require little or no human intervention. They are compact self-contained low drag profile crafts powered (in most cases but not all) by a single...

  17. Rebuilding a safety culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney, George A.

    1991-01-01

    The development of a culture of safety and NASA since the Challenger accident is reviewed. The technical elements of the strengthened NASA safety program are described, including problem reporting, risk/assessment/risk management, operational safety, and safety assurance are addressed. Future directions in the development of safety are considered.

  18. Discrimination between deterministic trend and stochastic trend processes

    OpenAIRE

    Caiado, Jorge; Crato, Nuno

    2005-01-01

    Most of economic and financial time series have a nonstationary behavior. There are different types of nonstationary processes, such as those with stochastic trend and those with deterministic trend. In practice, it can be quite difficult to distinguish between the two processes. In this paper, we compare random walk and determinist trend processes using sample autocorrelation, sample partial autocorrelation and periodogram based metrics.

  19. Australian trampoline injury patterns and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashby, Karen; Pointer, Sophie; Eager, David; Day, Lesley

    2015-10-01

    To examine national trampoline injury patterns and trends in the context of improved product safety standards and trampoline design modifications. Review of National Hospital Morbidity data. There were an average 1,737 trampoline injuries reported nationally each year from 2002 to 2011. Both injury frequency and rate grew. Statistically significant rate increases were observed among all age groups, although both are highest among children aged 5-9 years. From 2008/09 there is a possible decreasing trend among the 5-9 age group. Falls predominate and 81% of falls result in fracture. Non-fall injuries increased annually as a proportion of all hospitalised injury although they did not comprise more than 2.4% in any one year. History provides no evidence of an observable effect of voluntary Australian Standards for trampoline safety on population rates for trampoline injury. The major design modification--netted enclosures--could contribute to the risk of injury by leading parents to falsely believe that a netted enclosure eradicates the risk of injury. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

  20. TREND MECHANISMS IN CONTEMPORARY FASHION

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

    2013-01-01

    Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch.......Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch....

  1. High School and Youth Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Trends Nationwide Trends Prevention and Treatment Lessons from Prevention Research Substance Abuse in the Military Treatment Approaches for Drug Addiction Get this Publication Español PDF (653KB) Cite this ...

  2. Regional aviation safety organisations: enhancing air transport safety through regional cooperation

    OpenAIRE

    Ratajczyk, Mikołaj Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety is of global concern. Yet 43% of countries worldwide lack the expertise and administrative capacity to ensure effective safety oversight of the aviation activities for which they are responsible under international law. With air traffic predicted to double in the next 15 years and increasing pressure on public administrations budgets, countries are increasingly pooling their resources to improve aviation safety. One of the ways States can achieve regulatory efficiencies and in...

  3. A major safety overhaul

    CERN Multimedia

    2003-01-01

    A redefined policy, a revamped safety course, an environmental project... the TIS (Technical Inspection and Safety) Division has begun a major safety overhaul. Its new head, Wolfgang Weingarten, explains to the Bulletin why and how this is happening.

  4. Bathroom safety - adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Older adult bathroom safety; Falls - bathroom safety ... You may need to have safety bars in your bathroom. These grab bars should be secured vertically or horizontally to the wall, not diagonally. DO NOT use ...

  5. From farm to fork and further. Research tackling the grand challenge of food safety in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ridder, M. de; Polchar, J.; Gehem, M.

    2012-01-01

    The study From Farm to Fork and Further shows how, as traditional causes of food safety problems such as basic hygiene are successfully dealt with, future food safety risks become ever harder to manage. European countries may have the highest food safety standards, however the trends that go hand in

  6. Bromine Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyers, B

    2001-04-09

    The production and handling in 1999 of about 200 million kilograms of bromine plus substantial derivatives thereof by Great Lakes Chemical Corp. and Albemarle Corporation in their southern Arkansas refineries gave OSHA Occupational Injury/Illness Rates (OIIR) in the range of 0.74 to 1.60 reportable OIIRs per 200,000 man hours. OIIRs for similar industries and a wide selection of other U.S. industries range from 1.6 to 23.9 in the most recent OSHA report. Occupational fatalities for the two companies in 1999 were zero compared to a range in the U.S.of zero for all computer manufacturing to 0.0445 percent for all of agriculture, forestry and fishing in the most recent OSHA report. These results show that bromine and its compounds can be considered as safe chemicals as a result of the bromine safety standards and practices at the two companies. The use of hydrobromic acid as an electrical energy storage medium in reversible PEM fuel cells is discussed. A study in 1979 of 20 megawatt halogen working fluid power plants by Oronzio de Nora Group found such energy to cost 2 to 2.5 times the prevailing base rate at that time. New conditions may reduce this relative cost. The energy storage aspect allows energy delivery at maximum demand times where the energy commands premium rates. The study also found marginal cost and performance advantages for hydrobromic acid over hydrochloric acid working fluid. Separate studies in the late 70s by General Electric also showed marginal performance advantages for hydrobromic acid.

  7. Regional aviation safety organisations : enhancing air transport safety through regional cooperation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ratajczyk, Mikołaj Andrzej

    2014-01-01

    Aviation safety is of global concern. Yet 43% of countries worldwide lack the expertise and administrative capacity to ensure effective safety oversight of the aviation activities for which they are responsible under international law. With air traffic predicted to double in the next 15 years and

  8. Eye Protection: Safety Glasses. Safety Spotlight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deck, Anita; Roy, Ken

    2017-01-01

    When it comes to eye safety, there are some situations in which regular safety glasses will work adequately for the needs of the STEM education classroom or laboratory. However, there are certain instances in which safety goggles must be used for safer protection. Taking the time to analyze hazards and assess the risks prior to any activity in the…

  9. Trends in Environmental Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koester, C J; Moulik, A

    2005-03-31

    This article discusses developments in environmental analytical chemistry that occurred in the years of 2003 and 2004. References were found by searching the ''Science Citation Index and Current Contents''. As in our review of two years ago (A1), techniques are highlighted that represent current trends and state-of-the-art technologies in the sampling, extraction, separation, and detection of trace concentrations, low-part-per-billion and less, of organic, inorganic, and organometallic contaminants in environmental samples. New analytes of interest are also reviewed, the detections of which are made possible by recently developed analytical instruments and methods.

  10. Trending Cardiovascular Nutrition Controversies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Andrew M; Morris, Pamela B; Barnard, Neal; Esselstyn, Caldwell B; Ros, Emilio; Agatston, Arthur; Devries, Stephen; O'Keefe, James; Miller, Michael; Ornish, Dean; Williams, Kim; Kris-Etherton, Penny

    2017-03-07

    The potential cardiovascular benefits of several trending foods and dietary patterns are still incompletely understood, and nutritional science continues to evolve. However, in the meantime, a number of controversial dietary patterns, foods, and nutrients have received significant media exposure and are mired by hype. This review addresses some of the more popular foods and dietary patterns that are promoted for cardiovascular health to provide clinicians with accurate information for patient discussions in the clinical setting. Copyright © 2017 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Nuclear criticality safety guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pruvost, N.L.; Paxton, H.C. [eds.

    1996-09-01

    This technical reference document cites information related to nuclear criticality safety principles, experience, and practice. The document also provides general guidance for criticality safety personnel and regulators.

  12. Farm Health and Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... jobs in the United States. Farms have many health and safety hazards, including Chemicals and pesticides Machinery, ... equipment can also reduce accidents. Occupational Safety and Health Administration

  13. New Safety rules

    CERN Multimedia

    Safety Commission

    2008-01-01

    The revision of CERN Safety rules is in progress and the following new Safety rules have been issued on 15-04-2008: Safety Procedure SP-R1 Establishing, Updating and Publishing CERN Safety rules: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/SP-R1.htm; Safety Regulation SR-S Smoking at CERN: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/SR-S.htm; Safety Regulation SR-M Mechanical Equipment: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/SR-M.htm; General Safety Instruction GSI-M1 Standard Lifting Equipment: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/GSI-M1.htm; General Safety Instruction GSI-M2 Standard Pressure Equipment: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/GSI-M2.htm; General Safety Instruction GSI-M3 Special Mechanical Equipment: http://cern.ch/safety-rules/GSI-M3.htm. These documents apply to all persons under the Director General’s authority. All Safety rules are available at the web page: http://www.cern.ch/safety-rules The Safety Commission

  14. Big data in food safety: An overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvin, Hans J P; Janssen, Esmée M; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Hendriksen, Peter J M; Staats, Martijn

    2017-07-24

    Technology is now being developed that is able to handle vast amounts of structured and unstructured data from diverse sources and origins. These technologies are often referred to as big data, and open new areas of research and applications that will have an increasing impact in all sectors of our society. In this paper we assessed to which extent big data is being applied in the food safety domain and identified several promising trends. In several parts of the world, governments stimulate the publication on internet of all data generated in public funded research projects. This policy opens new opportunities for stakeholders dealing with food safety to address issues which were not possible before. Application of mobile phones as detection devices for food safety and the use of social media as early warning of food safety problems are a few examples of the new developments that are possible due to big data.

  15. Patient safety: Safety culture and patient safety ethics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Marlene Dyrløv

    2006-01-01

    Patient safety - the prevention of medical error and adverse events - and the initiative of developing safety cultures to assure patients from harm have become one of the central concerns in quality improvement in healthcare both nationally andinternationally. This subject raises numerous...... the problems, and suggest possible solutions for improving patient safety through the promotion of safety culture and ethics. I seek to illuminate theissues of patient safety from several perspectives; the organizational healthcare system, in particular the healthcare workers perspectives and experiences......, and those of patients who experience the physical effect of poor patient safety. The dissertationconsists of nine papers and an appendix. Paper 1 describes the results of doctors and nurses attitudes towards reporting and the handling of adverse events. Paper 2 is a study and “review” of the international...

  16. Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

    OpenAIRE

    Kokol, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians. Methods: The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the sel...

  17. Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

    OpenAIRE

    Kokol, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Objective Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians. Methods The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected ...

  18. Occupational safety and regulatory compliance in US commercial fishing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Mary E

    2011-01-01

    This study explored occupational safety practices and regulatory compliance in a representative sample of Maine commercial fishing vessels. Data were collected on demographic characteristics, safety equipment and training, and regulatory compliance during at sea boardings of working commercial fishing vessels (n = 259). Trends in safety and compliance were explored using standard comparison tests and principal component analysis. More than 40% of vessels were not in compliance with applicable safety regulations. That rate was lower for fishermen subjected to more stringent and costly safety requirements. The vast majority of fishermen were not safety trained, and many were not familiar with the proper use and maintenance of life-saving equipment. There is a clear need for better safety training in this industry. Educational efforts should be targeted at the local level at minimal cost to fishermen to encourage participation.

  19. Improving construction site safety through leader-based verbal safety communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kines, Pete; Andersen, Lars P S; Spangenberg, Soren; Mikkelsen, Kim L; Dyreborg, Johnny; Zohar, Dov

    2010-10-01

    The construction industry is one of the most injury-prone industries, in which production is usually prioritized over safety in daily on-site communication. Workers have an informal and oral culture of risk, in which safety is rarely openly expressed. This paper tests the effect of increasing leader-based on-site verbal safety communication on the level of safety and safety climate at construction sites. A pre-post intervention-control design with five construction work gangs is carried out. Foremen in two intervention groups are coached and given bi-weekly feedback about their daily verbal safety communications with their workers. Foremen-worker verbal safety exchanges (experience sampling method, n=1,693 interviews), construction site safety level (correct vs. incorrect, n=22,077 single observations), and safety climate (seven dimensions, n=105 questionnaires) are measured over a period of up to 42 weeks. Baseline measurements in the two intervention and three control groups reveal that foremen speak with their workers several times a day. Workers perceive safety as part of their verbal communication with their foremen in only 6-16% of exchanges, and the levels of safety at the sites range from 70-87% (correct observations). Measurements from baseline to follow-up in the two intervention groups reveal that safety communication between foremen and workers increases significantly in one of the groups (factor 7.1 increase), and a significant yet smaller increase is found when the two intervention groups are combined (factor 4.6). Significant increases in the level of safety are seen in both intervention groups (7% and 12% increases, respectively), particularly in regards to 'access ways' and 'railings and coverings' (39% and 84% increases, respectively). Increases in safety climate are seen in only one of the intervention groups with respect to their 'attention to safety.' No significant trend changes are seen in the three control groups on any of the three measures

  20. Nuclear Proliferation Technology Trends Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zentner, Michael D.; Coles, Garill A.; Talbert, Robert J.

    2005-10-04

    A process is underway to develop mature, integrated methodologies to address nonproliferation issues. A variety of methodologies (both qualitative and quantitative) are being considered. All have one thing in common, a need for a consistent set of proliferation related data that can be used as a basis for application. One approach to providing a basis for predicting and evaluating future proliferation events is to understand past proliferation events, that is, the different paths that have actually been taken to acquire or attempt to acquire special nuclear material. In order to provide this information, this report describing previous material acquisition activities (obtained from open source material) has been prepared. This report describes how, based on an evaluation of historical trends in nuclear technology development, conclusions can be reached concerning: (1) The length of time it takes to acquire a technology; (2) The length of time it takes for production of special nuclear material to begin; and (3) The type of approaches taken for acquiring the technology. In addition to examining time constants, the report is intended to provide information that could be used to support the use of the different non-proliferation analysis methodologies. Accordingly, each section includes: (1) Technology description; (2) Technology origin; (3) Basic theory; (4) Important components/materials; (5) Technology development; (6) Technological difficulties involved in use; (7) Changes/improvements in technology; (8) Countries that have used/attempted to use the technology; (9) Technology Information; (10) Acquisition approaches; (11) Time constants for technology development; and (12) Required Concurrent Technologies.

  1. Trends in contemporary mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Strickland, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    This book covers a wide spectrum of hot topics and current trends in mathematics, including noncommutative algebra via deformation theory,  optimal transportation, nonlinear potential theory, kinetic theory and gas dynamics, geometric numerical integration, finite simple groups of small essential dimension, optimal control problems, extended Dynkin diagrams, spin glasses, aspherical closed manifolds, Boltzmann systems, birational geometry of projective varieties and directed graphs, nonlinear diffusion, geometric constructions of extremal metrics on complex manifolds, and Pell’s equation in polynomials. The book comprises a selection of contributions by leading international mathematicians who were speakers at the "INdAM Day", an initiative dating back to 2004 at which the most recent developments in contemporary mathematics are presented.

  2. Philippine population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of Philippine population trends and prospects. The population growth rate, which has been 2% in this century, is declining in most regions of the Philippines. The 1980 census showed a decline in the proportion of the population under 15 uears old. The size of the working-age population and the aged rose slightly. The median age in 1980 was 18.6 years as opposed to 16.9 years in 1970. Men still outnumber women in the Philippines. Urbanization has increased by 10% from 1948 to 1980, a relatively sluggish urban growth rate. In 1960, the total fertility rate was 6.5; this declined to 5.2 in 1975. The regions that are most exposed to modernization have the lowest fertility. Philippine surveys show that urban population (especially metro Manilans), the college educated, and those married to white collar workers have the smallest family size. Age at marriage also influences fertility. Mortality has declined continuously during the 20th century, and especially from 1968-1980. The 1980 census shows a higher population growth rate than expected. This makes replacement level fertility unlikely by the end of the century. Projections demonstrate that the population size of the country will be at least 71 million and perhaps as much as 80 million by the end of the century. These population figures highlight the following development issues: 1) an increasing number of jobs for the growing numbers of people in the working ages, 15-64; 2) lower productivity due to large numbers of young inexperienced workers; 3) larger numbers of retired people in relation to workers; 4) an imbalance in educational opportunities and health care between rural and urban areas; 5) the inability of the family planning program to reach high fertility sub-groups; 6) the need for rural development programs; and 7) the increasing interrelationship between demographic and development trends.

  3. TRENDS IN ROMANIAN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirjol Florentina

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is an industry of the future, having the potential to provide significant revenues, and an industry of 'beauty', because it will protect, preserve and contribute to arranging the environment affected by other human activities. This is why it is very important to know the evolution of this underdeveloped field in our country. This paper is intended as a study on current trends in Romanian tourism without any claim of being an exhaustive research on the industry, describing the main indices of tourist traffic and their influence on Romanian tourism. Nowadays, we witness three main trends in Romanian tourism: sustainability, ecotourism and the increasing presence of cultural tourism. Ecotourism, as a form of tourism, has emerged from people's need to withdraw in nature, to visit and learn about the natural areas which have or have not a national or international protection status. Cultural tourism appears as a type of tourism clearly differentiated from other forms or types of tourism, particularly through motivation. It can be defined as a form of tourist mobility whose primary goal is broadening the horizon of knowledge by uncovering its architectural and artistic heritage and the areas in which it originates. Sustainability for tourism, as for other industries, has three independent aspects: economic, socio-cultural and environmental. Sustainability implies permanence, which means that sustainable tourism requires the optimal use of resources, minimizing the negative economic, socio-cultural and ecological impact, maximizing the benefits upon local communities, national economies and conservation of nature. Regarding statistical data, in what quantity is concerned, there is an increase in Romanian tourism, but in what quality is concerned there is a setback for tourism in the last years. This aspect should make public authorities take concern in improving the infrastructure and the quality of the touristical activity and in diversifying

  4. Predicting Sustainable Work Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hald, Kim Sundtoft

    2013-01-01

    . Employee characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work condition are included in the extended model. A survey was handed out to 654 employees in Chinese factories. This research contributes by demonstrating how employee- characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work...... condition influence their sustainable work behavior. A new definition of sustainable work behavior is proposed.......Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior...

  5. Network analytical tool for monitoring global food safety highlights China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamás Nepusz

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Beijing Declaration on food safety and security was signed by over fifty countries with the aim of developing comprehensive programs for monitoring food safety and security on behalf of their citizens. Currently, comprehensive systems for food safety and security are absent in many countries, and the systems that are in place have been developed on different principles allowing poor opportunities for integration. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We have developed a user-friendly analytical tool based on network approaches for instant customized analysis of food alert patterns in the European dataset from the Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed. Data taken from alert logs between January 2003-August 2008 were processed using network analysis to i capture complexity, ii analyze trends, and iii predict possible effects of interventions by identifying patterns of reporting activities between countries. The detector and transgressor relationships are readily identifiable between countries which are ranked using i Google's PageRank algorithm and ii the HITS algorithm of Kleinberg. The program identifies Iran, China and Turkey as the transgressors with the largest number of alerts. However, when characterized by impact, counting the transgressor index and the number of countries involved, China predominates as a transgressor country. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study reports the first development of a network analysis approach to inform countries on their transgressor and detector profiles as a user-friendly aid for the adoption of the Beijing Declaration. The ability to instantly access the country-specific components of the several thousand annual reports will enable each country to identify the major transgressors and detectors within its trading network. Moreover, the tool can be used to monitor trading countries for improved detector/transgressor ratios.

  6. Safety at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    2009-01-01

    Safety is an integral part of our working lives, and should be in our minds whatever job we do at CERN. Ultimately, safety is the responsibility of the Director General – your safety is my concern. That’s why I have this week appointed a new Safety Policy Committee (SAPOCO) that reflects the new Organizational structure of CERN. CERN’s Staff Rules and Regulations clearly lay out in chapter 3 the scope of safety at CERN as well as my responsibilities and yours in safety matters. At CERN, safety is considered in the broadest sense, encompassing occupational Health and Safety, environmental protection, and the safety of equipment and installations. It is my responsibility to put appropriate measures in place to ensure that these conditions are met. And it is the responsibility of us all to ensure that we are fully conversant with safety provisions applicable in our areas of work and that we comply with them. The appointment of a n...

  7. Safety culture - Is it important?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayres, R.A. [Transnuclear West Inc, California (United States); Reiss, R.E. [Performance Improvement International, San Clemente, Ca (United States)

    1998-07-01

    A strong and improving safety culture provides the foundation for building long term success for a company. It is a cultural change for most organizations and requires years not months to achieve. Short term successes are typically achieved and the smart companies build upon and communicate those successes. For long term success, these companies never deviate or become complacent about maintaining a strong safety culture. There are several lessons learned from the nuclear industry that support the need to maintain a strong safety culture: (1)prevention of human errors costs less than dealing with the consequences (2)poorly designed processes cause the majority of human errors (3)quality supervision is a powerful tool in human error reduction (4)performance monitoring/trending and technology based root cause analysis are essential to human error reduction (5)human errors caused by misjudgment need special attention (6)procedural non-compliance needs a focused solution based on organizational psychology (7)the benefits of a well designed accountability system are very significant (8)knowledge and skills, more rules, are the last line of defense against problems. (authors)

  8. Trends, fads and ART!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Brian; Menezo, Yves; Coppola, Gianfranco

    2015-04-01

    Morphological selection techniques of gametes and embryos are of current interest to clinical practice in ART. Although intracytoplasmic morphologically selected sperm injection (IMSI), time lapse imaging morphometry (TLIM) or quantification of chromosome numbers (PGS) are potentially useful in research, they have not been shown to be of statistically predictive value and, thus, have only limited clinical usefulness. We make the point that morphological markers alone cannot predict the success of the early embryo, which depends on the correct orchestration of a myriad of physiological and biochemical activation events that progress independently of the maternal or zygotic genome. Since previous attempts to identify metabolic markers for embryo quality have failed and there is no evidence that the intrinsic nature of gametes and embryos can be improved in the laboratory, embryologists can only minimize environmental or operator induced damage while these cells are manipulated ex vivo.

  9. Food Safety and Related Laws in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hatice Giray

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Food safety is described as; production, processing, saving and transportation of food safely. According to food safety on the basis of competition quality control and management systems were made. Turkish Standardization Instution prepared TS 13001 standardization according to HACCP principles. HACCP depends on FDA of USA that predicts that from row material to the end product scientific control decreases the risks of any kind. Since 1930 we have rules for food safety and control in our country. The new rule of 2004, known as 5179, gives the responsibility of food safety to Agriculture Ministry instead of Health Ministry and Municipilaty. At the time our country has disproportion between the application of the rules in food safety an EU directions and its applications. [TAF Prev Med Bull. 2007; 6(6: 485-490

  10. Biologics safety preclinical, clinical and regulatory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennig, Renald

    2003-11-01

    Biologicals offer particular challenges for all concerned, whether they be scientific researchers, profit-oriented companies (including not yet profit-producing start-ups), public health-focused regulators, physicians, or, most importantly, patients. One of the most important of these challenges is safety. Hence, this conference was organised by Vision in Business (the trading name of Analysis and Networking Ltd) to provide practical solutions and advice for comprehensive, effective safety testing. It provided a wide spectrum of presentations, ranging from the usefulness of animal models for biologicals safety predictions, to an FDA perspective on implications of its recent restructuring, to a real-life case study on erythropoietin and pure red cell anaemia. For anyone seriously interested in the safety of biologicals, this was a very good opportunity to gain an overview of all major aspects of biologicals safety, broaden existing expertise and to network with those concerned with these issues.

  11. Trends in croatian hotel industry

    OpenAIRE

    Jasmina GRZINIC

    2008-01-01

    Tourism and hotel business is becoming one of the leading industries of the world. Therefore, an increased attention needs to be paid to the study of trends in tourism because they determine the trends in hotel industry. The purpose of the paper is to point out the importance of hotel industry as one of the most important elements of development in tourist economies. The paper aims at introducing the newest trends in modern hotel industry and offering a review of the recent trends of demand a...

  12. TWRS safety program plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calderon, L.M., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-08-01

    Management of Nuclear Safety, Industrial Safety, Industrial Hygiene, and Fire Protection programs, functions, and field support resources for Tank Waste Remediation Systems (TWRS) has, until recently, been centralized in TWRS Safety, under the Emergency, Safety, and Quality organization. Industrial hygiene technician services were also provided to support operational needs related to safety basis compliance. Due to WHC decentralization of safety and reengineering efforts in West Tank Farms, staffing and safety responsibilities have been transferred to the facilities. Under the new structure, safety personnel for TWRS are assigned directly to East Tank Farms, West Tank Farms, and a core Safety Group in TWRS Engineering. The Characterization Project Operations (CPO) safety organization will remain in tact as it currently exists. Personnel assigned to East Tank Farms, West Tank Farms, and CPO will perform facility-specific or project-specific duties and provide field implementation of programs. Those assigned to the core group will focus on activities having a TWRS-wide or programmatic focus. Hanford-wide activities will be the responsibility of the Safety Center of Expertise. In order to ensure an effective and consistent safety program for TWRS under the new organization program functions, goals, organizational structure, roles, responsibilities, and path forward must be clearly established. The purpose of the TWRS Safety Program Plan is to define the overall safety program, responsibilities, relationships, and communication linkages for safety personnel under the new structure. In addition, issues associated with reorganization transition are addressed, including training, project ownership, records management, and dissemination of equipment. For the purpose of this document ``TWRS Safety`` refers to all safety professionals and technicians (Industrial Safety, Industrial Hygiene, Fire Protection, and Nuclear Safety) within the TWRS organization, regardless of their

  13. Meeting Report: 2013 PDA Virus & TSE Safety Forum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willkommen, Hannelore; Blümel, Johannes; Brorson, Kurt; Chen, Dayue; Chen, Qi; Gröner, Albrecht; Hubbard, Brian R; Kreil, Thomas R; Ruffing, Michel; Ruiz, Sol; Scott, Dorothy; Silvester, Glenda

    2014-01-01

    The report provides a summary of the presentations and discussions at the Virus & TSE Safety Forum 2013 organized by the Parenteral Drug Association (PDA) and held in Berlin, Germany, from June 4 to 6, 2013. The conference was accompanied by a workshop, "Virus Spike Preparations and Virus Removal by Filtration: New Trends and Developments". The presentations and the discussion at the workshop are summarized in a separate report that will be published in this issue of the journal as well. As with previous conferences of this series, the PDA Virus & TSE Safety Forum 2013 provided again an excellent opportunity to exchange information and opinions between the industry, research organizations, and regulatory bodies. Updates on regulatory considerations related to virus and transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) safety of biopharmaceuticals were provided by agencies of the European Union (EU), the United States (US), and Singapore. The epidemiology and detection methods of new emerging pathogens like hepatitis E virus and parvovirus (PARV 4) were exemplified, and the risk of contamination of animal-derived raw materials like trypsin was considered in particular. The benefit of using new sequence-based virus detection methods was discussed. Events of bioreactor contaminations in the past drew the attention to root cause investigations and preventive actions, which were illustrated by several examples. Virus clearance data of specific unit operations were provided; the discussion focused on the mechanism of virus clearance and on the strategic concept of viral clearance integration. As in previous years, the virus safety section was followed by a TSE section that covered recent scientific findings that may influence the risk assessment of blood and cell substrates. These included the realization that interspecies transmission of TSE by blood components in sheep is greater than predicted by assays in transgenic mice. Also, the pathogenesis and possibility of

  14. Rechargeable batteries materials, technologies and new trends

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Zhengcheng

    2015-01-01

    This book updates the latest advancements in new chemistries, novel materials and system integration of rechargeable batteries, including lithium-ion batteries and batteries beyond lithium-ion and addresses where the research is advancing in the near future in a brief and concise manner. The book is intended for a wide range of readers from undergraduates, postgraduates to senior scientists and engineers. In order to update the latest status of rechargeable batteries and predict near research trend, we plan to invite the world leading researchers who are presently working in the field to write

  15. Based on BP Neural Network Stock Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiangwei; Ma, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The stock market has a high profit and high risk features, on the stock market analysis and prediction research has been paid attention to by people. Stock price trend is a complex nonlinear function, so the price has certain predictability. This article mainly with improved BP neural network (BPNN) to set up the stock market prediction model, and…

  16. Management commitment to safety vs. employee perceived safety training and association with future injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Verma, Santosh K; Chang, Wen-Ruey; Courtney, Theodore K; Lombardi, David A; Brennan, Melanye J; Perry, Melissa J

    2012-07-01

    The purpose of this study is to explore and examine, specific to the restaurant industry, two important constructs emerging from the safety climate literature: employee perceptions of safety training and management commitment to safety. Are these two separate constructs? Are there both individual- and shared group-level safety perceptions for these two constructs? What are the relationships between these two constructs and future injury outcomes? A total of 419 employees from 34 limited-service restaurants participated in a prospective cohort study. Employees' perceptions of management commitment to safety and safety training and demographic variables were collected at the baseline. The survey questions were made available in three languages: English, Spanish, and Portuguese. For the following 12 weeks, participants reported their injury experience and weekly work hours. A multivariate negative binomial generalized estimating equation model with compound symmetry covariance structure was used to assess the association between the rate of self-reported injuries and measures of safety perceptions. Even though results showed that the correlation between employees'perceived safety training and management commitment to safety was high, confirmatory factor analysis of measurement models showed that two separate factors fit the model better than as two dimensions of a single factor. Homogeneity tests showed that there was a shared perception of the factor of management commitment to safety for the restaurant workers but there was no consistent perception among them for the factor of perceived safety training. Both individual employees'perceived management commitment to safety and perceptions of safety training can predict employees' subsequent injuries above and beyond demographic variables. However, there was no significant relationship between future injury and employees' shared perception of management commitment to safety. Further, our results suggest that the

  17. Linguistic Preprocessing and Tagging for Problem Report Trend Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beil, Robert J.; Malin, Jane T.

    2012-01-01

    Mr. Robert Beil, Systems Engineer at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) develop a prototype tool suite that combines complementary software technology used at Johnson Space Center (JSC) and KSC for problem report preprocessing and semantic tag extraction, to improve input to data mining and trend analysis. This document contains the outcome of the assessment and the Findings, Observations and NESC Recommendations.

  18. Trend in tea trade and the role of supply chain

    OpenAIRE

    Nabeshima, Kaoru; Michida, Etsuyo

    2017-01-01

    This paper first shows the trend of tea trade in major exporting countries. Although tea trade has been expanding, stricter regulation and tighter food safety requirements lead to a decline of trade and a consolidation of tea supply chains into a handful of multinationals is observed. Challenges that exporters face stemming from supply chain management as well as regulatory compliances are reviewed from the literature. Commoditization has been progressed with consumers' willingness to pay for...

  19. Occupational safety motivation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Louise; Kines, Pete

    2010-01-01

    Background: Motivation is one of the most important factors for safety behaviour and for implementing change in general. However, theoretical and psychometric studies of safety performance have traditionally treated safety motivation, safety compliance and safety participation unidimensionally....... At the same time many motivation questionnaire items are seldom founded on theory and/or do not account for the theories’ ontological and epistemological differences, e.g. of how knowledge, attitude and action are related. Present questionnaire items tap into occupational safety motivation in asking whether...... or not respondents ‘are’ motivated and whether they feel that safety is important or worthwhile. Another important aspect is ‘what’ motivates workers to comply to and participate in safety. The aim of this article is to introduce a new theory-based occupational safety motivation scale which is validated...

  20. [Population trends and poverty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olmedo, C

    1998-04-01

    Implications of population growth in Ecuador for the quality of life of the poor population are analyzed. It is argued that if the gross national product (GNP) were to grow at a sustained annual rate of 5% or more, demographic trends would not present a significant obstacle to reducing poverty. National economic projections are for growth of only 2.5-3.5% annually. The continuing rapid growth of the poor population despite general slowing of demographic growth, the young age structure, the need for increased formal education to enable the poor to overcome their poverty, and the effect of unemployment on the dependency ratio will tend to hamper improvements in average productivity and per capita GNP. The need for spending on education, health, basic services, and housing will divert funds away from productive investment, generating a direct negative impact on economic growth. Over half of Ecuadorian children suffer from some degree of malnutrition, indicating that food production is inadequate to meet demand. The export-oriented agricultural policy and poor weather have led to a chronic shortage of basic foods. Progressive increase and diversification of agricultural production, along with maintenance of low prices and substantial increases in income levels and agricultural productivity, will be required if the entire population is to be fed adequately. Intense efforts will be needed from all sectors to bring demographic growth into balance with economic and development needs.

  1. Trends in environmental management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arnold, J.E. [Arthur D. Little of Canada Limited, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1995-11-01

    Changes wrought by environmental regulations in the way companies produce, develop, and deliver their products and services were discussed. Some `tell-tale` signs of a vacuum of industry leadership in environmental affairs were identified. These included: lack of a `visible` corporate environmental policy, role confusion, limited action in response to plans, process myopia, poorly utilized data, hidden accomplishments, and an adversarial relationship with the regulatory bodies. Key trends in environmental management, and the necessary attributes for effective environmental management expected of the next generation of industry leaders were briefly described, including (1) the incorporation of environmental plans into the core of the business process, and into corporate strategy; (2) the formation of business-led, line-driven, rather than staff driven plans; and (3) increased measurement and broad dissemination of environmental successes, and their incorporation into the company`s strategic leverage. The overwhelming importance of commitment at the highest level, and the value of a business-oriented approach over a functional approach for effective environmental management were stressed.

  2. Trends in animal experimentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, Rosangela; Brandau, Ricardo; Gomes, Walter J; Braile, Domingo M

    2009-01-01

    The search of the understanding of etiological factors, mechanisms and treatment of the diseases has been taking to the development of several animal models in the last decades. To discuss aspects related to animal models of experimentation, animal choice and current trends in this field in our country. In addition, this study evaluated the frequency of experimental articles in medical journals. Five Brazilian journals indexed by LILACS, SciELO, MEDLINE, and recently incorporate for Institute for Scientific Information Journal of Citation Reports were analyzed. All the papers published in those journals, between 2007 and 2008, that used animal models, were selected based on the abstracts. Of the total of 832 articles published in the period, 92 (11.1%) experimentation papers were selected. The number of experimental articles ranged from 5.2% to 17.9% of the global content of the journal. In the instructions to the authors, four (80%) journals presented explicit reference to the ethical principles in the conduction of studies with animals. The induced animal models represented 100% of the articles analyzed in this study. The rat was the most employed animal in the analyzed articles (78.3%). The present study can contribute, supplying subsidies for adoption of future editorials policies regarding the publication of animal research papers in Brazilian Journal of Cardiovascular Surgery.

  3. CLOUD COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian IVANUS

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing has been a tremendous innovation, through which applications became available online, accessible through an Internet connection and using any computing device (computer, smartphone or tablet. According to one of the most recent studies conducted in 2012 by Everest Group and Cloud Connect, 57% of companies said they already use SaaS application (Software as a Service, and 38% reported using standard tools PaaS (Platform as a Service. However, in the most cases, the users of these solutions highlighted the fact that one of the main obstacles in the development of this technology is the fact that, in cloud, the application is not available without an Internet connection. The new challenge of the cloud system has become now the offline, specifically accessing SaaS applications without being connected to the Internet. This topic is directly related to user productivity within companies as productivity growth is one of the key promises of cloud computing system applications transformation. The aim of this paper is the presentation of some important aspects related to the offline cloud system and regulatory trends in the European Union (EU.

  4. Novel trends in engineered milk products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandrapala, Jayani; Zisu, Bogdan

    2016-08-01

    Food engineering within the dairy sector is an ever developing field of study purely based on the application of engineering principles and concepts to any aspect of dairy product manufacturing and operations. The last 25 years of science and technology devoted to milk and milk products have led to major advances. The purpose of this paper is to review the history and current status of some engineered milk products and to speculate regarding future trends. Much of the advancement has been directed towards production capacity, mechanisation, automation, hygiene within the processing plant, safety, extensions in shelf life, and new product introductions that bring variety and convenience for the consumer. Significant advancements in product quality have been made, many of these arising from improved knowledge of the functional properties of ingredients and their impact on structure and texture. In addition, further improvements focused on energy efficiency and environmental sustainability have been made and will be needed in the future.

  5. Boom in clinical research industry: a dangerous trend.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bajpai, Vikas; Saraya, Anoop

    2009-01-01

    Over the last decade or so India has witnessed a phenomenal growth in the clinical trial industry. The projections forecast a continuing growth of this trend. It has been predicted that by 2011 India will be in charge of 15% of global clinical trials. The enthusiasm for the growth of this industry in India is shared not just by the major pharmaceutical companies and CROs but also equally so by government agencies. The raison d'être for medical research is that it should lead to maximum possible benefit to the largest number of people. Hence, an examination of the extent to which public good is served can act as a measure for objective analysis of this exponential increase in the clinical trial industry. After all it is the health and lives of the people that are at stake. On the face of it, it would seem that all trials testing the safety and efficacy of various molecules, by their very nature work towards public welfare as they are indispensible to the development of any drug including the life-saving ones. An increasing number of clinical trials at all stages in a product's life cycle are funded by the pharmaceutical industry. It would then seem that the industry-sponsored medical research is necessarily furthering the larger objective of human wellbeing. However, the operations of the pharmaceutical industry, the nature of the processes involved and the operative motives are a bit too complex to facilitate this larger objective so simply, just as yet. This warrants a closer look at the various aspects of industry-sponsored clinical research.

  6. Crime Trend Prediction Using Regression Models for Salinas, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    Mafia (La Eme) and Nuestra Familia (NF)” (Sureños, 2005). The original members of the gang were associated with the urban Hispanic population...Morales et al., 2008, p. 8). The Norteños are associated with the Nuestra Familia gang. The Norteños, Spanish for “Our Family,” are rumored to have... Familia in Salinas. Monterey Herald. 55 San Francisco Citizen. (2010, 22 April). Jerry Brown Takes Down: “Operation Knockout” Arrests 94 Norteños

  7. Prediction of future car forms based on historical trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bijendra Kumar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Cars are one of the most important products that affects our daily life. Manufacturers of cars are inclined to know factors that affect the sales of cars and how to influence them. Car is a very competitive product whose technology is already matured. Thus, purchase decisions of a car depend on factors such as, aesthetics, ergonomics, features available and price. Exterior form and colour of a car are the most important factors that influence likeness of the car. We did a case study on car aesthetics (form, colour, shape, and user focus with more than 500 car advertisements over the past 70 years, appearing in various car magazines. Results show that form of cars has changed from sharp to smooth over the years, and white colour cars are becoming more popular. Additionally, car size is becoming smaller and increasingly focused towards family. Thus, manufacturers are recommended to develop compact, efficient and hybrid cars.

  8. Predicting the present and future of aquaponics with Google Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Santos, Maria José Palma Lampreia dos

    2017-01-01

    Aquaponics is an innovative scientific and professional area in Europe and across the world with increasing importance. However, despite the importance of aquaponics in Europe and in the world to promote safely and fresh foods, there is a gap because stakeholders, researchers and other professionals don’t really know the actual development and http://repositorio.ipl.pt/increasing of importance this activity in Europe despite the enormous contribution of the Aquaponics Hub from COST FA 1305. T...

  9. Literature review regarding patient safety culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xuanyue, Mao; Yanli, Nie; Hao, Cui; Pengli, Jia; Mingming, Zhang

    2013-02-01

    Quite a number of articles on patient safety culture have been published in recent 10 years to assess the safety culture in hospitals using the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture in many countries. However, until now there have been no relevant studies to investigate the quality of these, and their contribution to present-day thinking. The aim of this study was to explore the areas of theme, and the study design of published research on patient safety culture in literature published in English and Chinese language journals. We searched the major databases, including MEDLINE, EMbase, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, Chinese Journals Full-text Database, and to analyze the publication years, research themes, authors' affiliations and methodologies of articles published from January 2001 to December 2011. Quality and statistical method were only appraised by classification of study designs. The annual number of published articles on patient safety culture was increasing in the last decade, and the number of articles published in 2010 and 2011 reached its peak with 86 articles accounting for 44.6% of the decade's publication; patient safety culture scale dominated the included literature, accounting for 67.8% of all studies. Cross-sectional studies and commentary reviews were the most popular study designs which took up approximately 95.9% of the included studies with 66.9% (129 articles) and 29.0% (56 articles), respectively. All the included studies on patient safety culture were conducted in the following four institutions: hospitals, geracomium, Veterans Health Administration hospitals, and medical schools. There is a growing change trend in the number of articles on patient safety culture research in recent 10 years, most of which are non-comparative studies. More methodologically rigorous designs are needed to improve research quality on patient safety culture. © 2013 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd and Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of

  10. Beyond safety accountability

    CERN Document Server

    Geller, E Scott

    2001-01-01

    Written in an easy-to-read conversational tone, Beyond Safety Accountability explains how to develop an organizational culture that encourages people to be accountable for their work practices and to embrace a higher sense of personal responsibility. The author begins by thoroughly explaining the difference between safety accountability and safety responsibility. He then examines the need of organizations to improve safety performance, discusses why such performance improvement can be achieved through a continuous safety process, as distinguished from a safety program, and provides the practic

  11. Safety-in-numbers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elvik, Rune; Bjørnskau, Torkel

    2017-01-01

    Highlights •26 studies of the safety-in-numbers effect are reviewed. •The existence of a safety-in-numbers effect is confirmed. •Results are consistent. •Causes of the safety-in-numbers effect are incompletely known.......Highlights •26 studies of the safety-in-numbers effect are reviewed. •The existence of a safety-in-numbers effect is confirmed. •Results are consistent. •Causes of the safety-in-numbers effect are incompletely known....

  12. Selected Trends of the Cybercrime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Požár

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The contribution paid particular attention to trends of the cybercrime in future period dedicated to combating negative phenomena in the context of cyberspace. The structure of article concern of definition of cybercrime, its legal classification especially choosing trends of cybercrime in future period.

  13. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  14. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  15. Trends in advanced wastewater treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henze, M.

    1997-01-01

    The paper examines the present trends within wastewater handling and treatment. The trend is towards the extremes, either local low-tech treatment or centralized advanced treatment plants. The composition of the wastewater will change and it will be regarded as a resource. There will be more...

  16. Interior Design Trends in Libraries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sager, Don, Ed.

    2000-01-01

    Four contributing authors discuss perspectives on current trends in library interior design. Articles include: "Trends in Library Furnishings: A Manufacturer's Perspective" (Andrea Johnson); "Libraries, Architecture, and Light: The Architect's Perspective" (Rick McCarthy); "The Library Administrator's Perspective" (Chadwick Raymond); and "The…

  17. Safety compliance and safety climate: A repeated cross-sectional study in the oil and gas industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvalheim, Sverre A; Dahl, Øyvind

    2016-12-01

    Violations of safety rules and procedures are commonly identified as a causal factor in accidents in the oil and gas industry. Extensive knowledge on effective management practices related to improved compliance with safety procedures is therefore needed. Previous studies of the causal relationship between safety climate and safety compliance demonstrate that the propensity to act in accordance with prevailing rules and procedures is influenced to a large degree by workers' safety climate. Commonly, the climate measures employed differ from one study to another and identical measures of safety climate are seldom tested repeatedly over extended periods of time. This research gap is addressed in the present study. The study is based on a survey conducted four times among sharp-end workers of the Norwegian oil and gas industry (N=31,350). This is done by performing multiple tests (regression analysis) over a period of 7years of the causal relationship between safety climate and safety compliance. The safety climate measure employed is identical across the 7-year period. Taking all periods together, the employed safety climate model explained roughly 27% of the variance in safety compliance. The causal relationship was found to be stable across the period, thereby increasing the reliability and the predictive validity of the factor structure. The safety climate factor that had the most powerful effect on safety compliance was work pressure. The factor structure employed shows high predictive validity and should therefore be relevant to organizations seeking to improve safety in the petroleum sector. The findings should also be relevant to other high-hazard industries where safety rules and procedures constitute a central part of the approach to managing safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  18. Road safety rhetoric versus road safety politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Køltzow, K

    1993-12-01

    In-depth interviews with top level decision makers in the road sector in Norway were conducted over a four-year period: Three principal impediments to safety interventions were identified: (i) Mobility is considered of primary importance; the "freedom of the car" is difficult to restrict, (ii) as a consequence there is much more lobbying for mobility than for safety, and (iii) road safety commitment and policies are weak, even among some of those responsible. For these reasons, efficient road safety work is often side-tracked at the top level, and substituted by nonbinding demands for road users' "change of attitude". In addition, road safety is often used as a proxy argument for measures that mainly promote mobility.

  19. [Mortality trends in cerebrovascular diseases in Croatia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babus, V

    1994-01-01

    The research comprised all deaths from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Croatia between 35 and 74 years of age over the period 1958-1987. The total number of deaths in that period increased by 40% and the number of deaths from CVD by 264%. At the same time, the rates standardized by age and sex increased by 62%. Proportional mortality rate from this disease increased from 7.1% in the year 1958 to 14.9% in 1987. The specific mortality rates over a 5-year period have shown a trend of increase in all male age groups and stagnation or decrease in females. A cohort data analysis shows a periodical and not cohort impact on mortality curve in the research period. The research shows that although mortality trends of CVD stagnated or even declined in some communities during the recent years, the secular trend for the entire country had a tendency of constant rise over the whole period of research. Therefore, the short-term prognosis predicts further increase of both the number and rate of deaths from CVD in our country.

  20. Patient safety: Safety culture and patient safety ethics

    OpenAIRE

    Madsen, Marlene Dyrløv

    2006-01-01

    Patient safety - the prevention of medical error and adverse events - and the initiative of developing safety cultures to assure patients from harm have become one of the central concerns in quality improvement in healthcare both nationally andinternationally. This subject raises numerous challenging issues of systemic, organisational, cultural and ethical relevance, which this dissertation seeks to address through the application of different disciplinary approaches. The main focus of resear...

  1. Relations among occupational hazards, attitudes, and safety performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Michael T; Tetrick, Lois E

    2011-01-01

    This study examined psychological empowerment and organizational identification as outcomes of occupational context and predictors of occupational safety performance. In this study, 171 hospital employees from 17 units and 21 occupations completed surveys measuring psychological empowerment, organizational identification, and supervisor safety practices. They also completed measures of 2 dimensions of safety performance: use of personal protective equipment and safety participation. These data were merged with Occupational Information Network (O*NET) context ratings of occupational hazards and physical demands. Results indicated that occupational hazards were negatively related to individual-level psychological empowerment and organizational identification, which were in turn positively related to safety participation. Psychological empowerment and organizational identification also interacted with perceptions of supervisor safety actions in the prediction of personal protective equipment use. Results have implications for organizational safety performance and point to the role of occupational context in psychological empowerment and the extent to which employees participate in the safety of their worksite.

  2. Predicting sustainable work behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Sundtoft Hald, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Sustainable work behavior is an important issue for operations managers – it has implications for most outcomes of OM. This research explores the antecedents of sustainable work behavior. It revisits and extends the sociotechnical model developed by Brown et al. (2000) on predicting safe behavior. Employee characteristics and general attitudes towards safety and work condition are included in the extended model. A survey was handed out to 654 employees in Chinese factories. This research ...

  3. Data governance in predictive toxicology: A review

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fu, Xin; Wojak, Anna; Neagu, Daniel; Ridley, Mick; Travis, Kim

    2011-01-01

    .... In order to better manage and make full use of such large amount of toxicity data, there is a trend to develop functionalities aiming towards data governance in predictive toxicology to formalise...

  4. Assessment of occupational safety risks in Floridian solid waste systems using Bayesian analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastani, Mehrad; Celik, Nurcin

    2015-10-01

    Safety risks embedded within solid waste management systems continue to be a significant issue and are prevalent at every step in the solid waste management process. To recognise and address these occupational hazards, it is necessary to discover the potential safety concerns that cause them, as well as their direct and/or indirect impacts on the different types of solid waste workers. In this research, our goal is to statistically assess occupational safety risks to solid waste workers in the state of Florida. Here, we first review the related standard industrial codes to major solid waste management methods including recycling, incineration, landfilling, and composting. Then, a quantitative assessment of major risks is conducted based on the data collected using a Bayesian data analysis and predictive methods. The risks estimated in this study for the period of 2005-2012 are then compared with historical statistics (1993-1997) from previous assessment studies. The results have shown that the injury rates among refuse collectors in both musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have decreased from 88 and 15 to 16 and three injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. However, a contrasting trend is observed for the injury rates among recycling workers, for whom musculoskeletal and dermal injuries have increased from 13 and four injuries to 14 and six injuries per 1000 workers, respectively. Lastly, a linear regression model has been proposed to identify major elements of the high number of musculoskeletal and dermal injuries. © The Author(s) 2015.

  5. National Safety Council

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Practical Solutions & Training Tools Online Learning Safety Awards & Recognition Publications, Library & Research Get Support for Safety Membership Logos Networking & Additional Resources Member Appreciation Month NSC Division Networks Alcohol & Drug Impairment Business & ...

  6. Car Seat Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to Talk to Your Child About the News Gun Safety Too Late for the Flu Vaccine? Eating ... many local health departments, public safety groups, hospitals, law enforcement agencies, and fire departments have technicians or ...

  7. Flu Vaccine Safety Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Types Seasonal Avian Swine/Variant Pandemic Other Flu Vaccine Safety Information Questions & Answers Language: English (US) Español ... of flu vaccines monitored? Egg Allergy Are flu vaccines safe? Flu vaccines have good safety record. Hundreds ...

  8. Fires and Food Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Standard Forms FSIS United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service About FSIS District Offices Careers ... Viewer (JSR 286) Actions ${title} Loading... Fires and Food Safety Fire! Few words can strike such terror. Residential ...

  9. Freezing and Food Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Standard Forms FSIS United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service About FSIS District Offices Careers ... Viewer (JSR 286) Actions ${title} Loading... Freezing and Food Safety What Can You Freeze? Is Frozen Food Safe? ...

  10. Fire Safety (For Parents)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... of Braces Eating Disorders Mitral Valve Prolapse Arrhythmias Fire Safety KidsHealth > For Parents > Fire Safety Print A ... event of a fire emergency in your home. Fire Prevention Of course, the best way to practice ...

  11. Refrigeration and Food Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Forms Standard Forms FSIS United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service About FSIS District ... 286) Actions ${title} Loading... Refrigeration and Food Safety History of Refrigeration Importance of Refrigeration Types of Bacteria ...

  12. National Patient Safety Foundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... News Member Testimonials Lifetime Members Stand Up for Patient Safety Welcome Stand Up Members Stand Up e-News ... PLS Webcast Archives Stand Up Templates and Logos Patient Safety Coalition Coalition Overview Coalition Member Roster Members-Only ...

  13. Water safety and drowning

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... among people of all ages. Learning and practicing water safety is important to prevent drowning accidents. ... Water safety tips for all ages include: Learn CPR . Never swim alone. Never dive into water unless ...

  14. Animal Product Safety Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Vaccines, Blood & Biologics Animal & Veterinary Cosmetics Tobacco Products Animal & Veterinary Home Animal & Veterinary Safety & Health Product Safety ... for more information. How to report when your animal has a bad reaction to a drug the ...

  15. Applications for predictive microbiology to food packaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Predictive microbiology has been used for several years in the food industry to predict microbial growth, inactivation and survival. Predictive models provide a useful tool in risk assessment, HACCP set-up and GMP for the food industry to enhance microbial food safety. This report introduces the c...

  16. Predictive Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... you want to learn. Search form Search Predictive testing You are here Home Testing & Services Testing for ... you make the decision. What Is Predictive Genetic Testing Predictive genetic testing searches for genetic changes, or ...

  17. DOE handbook electrical safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-01-01

    Electrical Safety Handbook presents the Department of Energy (DOE) safety standards for DOE field offices or facilities involved in the use of electrical energy. It has been prepared to provide a uniform set of electrical safety guidance and information for DOE installations to effect a reduction or elimination of risks associated with the use of electrical energy. The objectives of this handbook are to enhance electrical safety awareness and mitigate electrical hazards to employees, the public, and the environment.

  18. Electrical safety guidelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-09-01

    The Electrical Safety Guidelines prescribes the DOE safety standards for DOE field offices or facilities involved in the use of electrical energy. It has been prepared to provide a uniform set of electrical safety standards and guidance for DOE installations in order to affect a reduction or elimination of risks associated with the use of electrical energy. The objectives of these guidelines are to enhance electrical safety awareness and mitigate electrical hazards to employees, the public, and the environment.

  19. Developing a Critical View on E-Learning Trend Reports: Trend Watching or Trend Setting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Jo; Rusman, Ellen; van der Klink, Marcel; Tattersall, Colin

    2005-01-01

    Trend watching reports are an indispensable resource in the e-learning domain. Many HRD departments consider these reports as essential cornerstones for the development of their e-learning strategy. But what is the quality of the forecasts made in these reports? In this article, several methods of forecasting trends are discussed, resulting in a…

  20. the trends in temperature and solar irradiance for zaria, north ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dogara et al.

    leading to the global warming concept. Keywords: Trend, Temperature, Solar Irradiance, Zaria. INTRODUCTION. The study of the rates of climatic change and their impact on the environment and society is important and essential to predicting global and regional climatic variations and to determining the extent of human ...

  1. Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lluch-Cota, S.E.; Tripp-Valdéz, M.; Lluch-Cota, D.B.; Lluch-Belda, D.; Verbesselt, J.; Herrera-Cervantes, H.; Bautista-Romero, J.

    2013-01-01

    Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change

  2. Trends for Methane Oxidation at Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kleis, Jesper; Jones, Glenn; Abild-Pedersen, Frank

    2009-01-01

    First-principles calculations are used to predict a plausible reaction pathway for the methane oxidation reaction. In turn, this pathway is used to obtain trends in methane oxidation activity at solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) anode materials. Reaction energetics and barriers for the elementary...

  3. General safety considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-09-01

    This document presents the full filling of the Brazilian obligations under the Convention on Nuclear Safety. The Chapter 4 of the document contains some details about the priority to safety, financial and human resources, human factors, quality assurance, safety assessment and verification, radiation protection and emergency preparedness.

  4. Improving patient safety culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hellings, Johan; Schrooten, Ward; Klazinga, Niek S.; Vleugels, Arthur

    2010-01-01

    PURPOSE: Improving hospital patient safety means an open and stimulating culture is needed. This article aims to describe a patient safety culture improvement approach in five Belgian hospitals. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Patient safety culture was measured using a validated Belgian adaptation of

  5. Trends at a Glance | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  6. Methodology for Characterizing Trends | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  7. Leadership and safety culture. Leadership for safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fischer, Erwin; Nithack, Eckhard [PreussenElektra GmbH, Hannover (Germany)

    2016-08-15

    The meaning of leadership for safety in the nuclear industry is pointed out. This topic has became an increasing rank since the German ''Energiewende''. Despite the phase-out of the German NPP's nuclear safety and the belonging safety culture needs to be well maintained. A challenge for the whole organisation. Following the challenge to operate nuclear power plants towards Operational Excellence a highly skilled and motivated organisation is needed. Therefore Leadership is a valuable success factor.

  8. Safety culture : a significant influence on safety in transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    An organizations safety culture can influence safety outcomes. Research and experience show that when safety culture is strong, accidents are less frequent and less severe. As a result, building and maintaining strong safety cultures should be a t...

  9. The influence of authentic leadership on safety climate in nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirik, Hasan Fehmi; Seren Intepeler, Seyda

    2017-07-01

    This study analysed nurses' perceptions of authentic leadership and safety climate and examined the contribution of authentic leadership to the safety climate. It has been suggested and emphasised that authentic leadership should be used as a guidance to ensure quality care and the safety of patients and health-care personnel. This predictive study was conducted with 350 nurses in three Turkish hospitals. The data were collected using the Authentic Leadership Questionnaire and the Safety Climate Survey and analysed using hierarchical regression analysis. The mean authentic leadership perception and the safety climate scores of the nurses were 2.92 and 3.50, respectively. The percentage of problematic responses was found to be less than 10% for only four safety climate items. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that authentic leadership significantly predicted the safety climate. Procedural and political improvements are required in terms of the safety climate in institutions, where the study was conducted, and authentic leadership increases positive perceptions of safety climate. Exhibiting the characteristics of authentic leadership, or improving them and reflecting them on to personnel can enhance the safety climate. Planning information sharing meetings to raise the personnel's awareness of safety climate and systemic improvements can contribute to creating safe care climates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Nuclear safety in perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersson, K.; Sjöberg, B.M.D.; Lauridsen, Kurt

    2003-01-01

    The aim of the NKS/SOS-1 project has been to enhance common understanding about requirements for nuclear safety by finding improved means of communicat-ing on the subject in society. The project, which has been built around a number of seminars, wassupported by limited research in three sub......-projects: Risk assessment Safety analysis Strategies for safety management The report describes an industry in change due to societal factors. The concepts of risk and safety, safety management and systems forregulatory oversight are de-scribed in the nuclear area and also, to widen the perspective, for other...

  11. New engineering trends emerging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinchin, D

    2001-11-01

    Engineering advances in environmental building issues, particularly moulds, odour and air emissions from industrial sites and farm operations and pollution prevention programs are discussed. Large-scale mould remediation projects in high rise office buildings and residential towers constitute a major market for devices designed to stop water leakage and condensation, which are necessary for mould growth, and often are the result of faulty building design or construction. With respect to nuisance odours and airborne substances harmful to health, they are increasingly the subject of concern as intermixing of industrial and residential areas occur, or as housing developments and infilling as well as new construction in farming areas becomes more common. Even the presence of odours which are otherwise harmless, can render some properties unliveable, or affect resale values. Engineering services to address this market include stack testing, predictive impact modelling, olfactometry, product reformulation, industrial ventilation and pollution abatement systems. Pollution prevention programs also received a great boost since the passage of the amendments to the Canadian Environmental Protection Acts of 1999. As a result , pollution prevention plans are now being implemented at the municipal level in various ways. Examples cited are the Toronto requirement of all sectors to develop a pollution prevention plan (P2) and the Region of Waterloo's Business Pollution Prevention Plan for small and medium size businesses. A similar plan is currently under review by the Greater Vancouver Regional District.

  12. Trends in nephrology practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huneycutt, Jennifer

    2015-03-01

    The analysis of this benchmarking data tells us several things. Nephrology practices are more complex. Physicians are generating more RVUs for less money and a greater percentage of income is coming from things other than direct patient care. Practices have responded partly by becoming larger and looking for revenue stream diversification. The ability to predict the financial future from the historical data is problematic. We know from the most recent survey that a significant number of nephrology practices are already participating in accountable care organizations, shared savings programs, and even risk sharing contracts. We know that the incentive for participation in government quality reporting programs and meaningful use is transitioning from the carrot to the stick and that reductions in reimbursement will be applied to those who are unsuccessful. In order to take on the challenges and complexity that the future holds, successful nephrology practices will likely be larger, more sophisticated and tightly aligned with all stakeholders in the pursuit to provide high quality, low cost care to patients with kidney disease.

  13. Uncertain safety: allocating responsibilities for safety

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2009-01-01

    Flood prevention, food safety, the transport of hazardous substances, infectious diseases, the risk of new Technologies and many other threats to public health and the environment call for ongoing public alertness...

  14. Workplace Safety and Health Topics: Safety & Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Childhood Agricultural Injury Prevention Control Banding Controls for Noise Exposure Cost-effective Rollover Protective Structures (CROPS) Direct Reading and Sensor Technologies Distracted Driving at Work Electrical Safety Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and Patient ...

  15. Safety in Cryogenics – Safety device sizing

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The calculation is separated in three operations: o The estimation of the loads arriving on the component to protect, o The calculation of the mass flow to evacuate, o And the sizing of the safety device.

  16. Predictors of Hospital Nurses' Safety Practices: Work Environment, Workload, Job Satisfaction, and Error Reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Hui-Ying; Hsiao, Ya-Chu; Lee, Huan-Fang

    Nurses' safety practices of medication administration, prevention of falls and unplanned extubations, and handover are essentials to patient safety. This study explored the prediction between such safety practices and work environment factors, workload, job satisfaction, and error-reporting culture of 1429 Taiwanese nurses. Nurses' job satisfaction, error-reporting culture, and one environmental factor of nursing quality were found to be major predictors of safety practices. The other environment factors related to professional development and participation in hospital affairs and nurses' workload had limited predictive effects on the safety practices. Increasing nurses' attention to patient safety by improving these predictors is recommended.

  17. Patient Safety Culture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Solvejg

    Patient safety is highly prioritised in the Danish health care system, never the less, patients are still exposed to risk and harmed every day. Implementation of a patient safety culture has been suggested an effective mean to protect patients against adverse events. Working strategically...... with assessment and development of the patient safety culture is in early days in Denmark. It depends upon valid, reliable and effective methods. The patient safety culture represents a wide range of social phenomena permeating the way of life in a health care. In essence, the safety culture is an aggregation...... of health care professional’s behaviour, habits, norms, values, and basic assumptions related to patient care; it is the way things are done. The patient safety culture guides the motivation, commitment to and know-how of the safety management, and how all members of a work place interact. This thesis...

  18. Predictive time-series modeling using artificial neural networks for Linac beam symmetry: an empirical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F

    2017-01-01

    Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  19. Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

    2015-05-01

    Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Home drinking in the UK: trends and causes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, John H; Ferguson, Colin S

    2012-01-01

    To explore the trend in the UK to consume alcohol at home rather than at licensed premises. A Medline search entering the terms 'home drinking', 'alcohol' and 'adult' covering the period 2000-2011 yielded 48 articles, of which 6 met the criteria to be included in the review. Grey literature including survey and market research data were reviewed. In the UK, since 1970 there has been trend for beer to be consumed at home more often than in licensed premises and that the overall trend towards greater home drinking has increased since 2000. The main reasons given are convenience, cost, safety, autonomy and stress relief. There has also been an increase in the practice known as 'pre-loading' (drinking before going out). Adults who drink mainly at home report that they are aware that they run a risk of higher overall alcohol consumption but tend to play down the possibility that increased consumption may lead to longer-term harm. Home drinking trends may have long-term public health consequences. Greater understanding of the drivers of this trend will help policy-makers to respond to these societal changes.

  1. Benzene | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  2. Arsenic | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  3. Radon | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  4. Home | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  5. Which Trend is your Friend?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    2016-01-01

    , that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically...... “trend signature plots,” demonstrating their dependence on past prices and returns by horizon....

  6. Incidence | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  7. Current and Future Trends in Tourism and Hospitality. The Case of Greece

    OpenAIRE

    Soultana (Tania) Kapiki

    2012-01-01

    This paper identifies some of the current and future trends affecting the tourism and hospitality industry, including globalisation, guests’ safety and security, the importance of offering outstanding services, the new technologies that enhance competitiveness, the population ageing that impacts directly on tourist demand and the correlation between price and value. Reference is also made to the trends in the development of tourism lodgings. Furthermore, the paper attempts to analyse the Gree...

  8. Predicting Visibility of Aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Ramirez, Cesar V.; Salud, Ellen

    2009-01-01

    Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO). In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration. PMID:19462007

  9. Continuous Glucose Monitoring and Trend Accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlieb, Rebecca; Le Compte, Aaron; Chase, J. Geoffrey

    2014-01-01

    Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices are being increasingly used to monitor glycemia in people with diabetes. One advantage with CGM is the ability to monitor the trend of sensor glucose (SG) over time. However, there are few metrics available for assessing the trend accuracy of CGM devices. The aim of this study was to develop an easy to interpret tool for assessing trend accuracy of CGM data. SG data from CGM were compared to hourly blood glucose (BG) measurements and trend accuracy was quantified using the dot product. Trend accuracy results are displayed on the Trend Compass, which depicts trend accuracy as a function of BG. A trend performance table and Trend Index (TI) metric are also proposed. The Trend Compass was tested using simulated CGM data with varying levels of error and variability, as well as real clinical CGM data. The results show that the Trend Compass is an effective tool for differentiating good trend accuracy from poor trend accuracy, independent of glycemic variability. Furthermore, the real clinical data show that the Trend Compass assesses trend accuracy independent of point bias error. Finally, the importance of assessing trend accuracy as a function of BG level is highlighted in a case example of low and falling BG data, with corresponding rising SG data. This study developed a simple to use tool for quantifying trend accuracy. The resulting trend accuracy is easily interpreted on the Trend Compass plot, and if required, performance table and TI metric. PMID:24876437

  10. Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Vogel

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

  11. Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia Chaolong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

  12. Trend analysis and short-term forecast of incident HIV infection in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study uses time-series modelling to determine and predict trends in incident HIV infection in Ghana among specific age groups. The HIV data for Ghana were grouped according to northern and southern spatial sectors as they exhibited slightly different data collection formats. The trend of the epidemic is modelled using ...

  13. Heteronormativity, School Climates, and Perceived Safety for Gender Nonconforming Peers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, Russell B.; McGuire, Jenifer K.; Russell, Stephen T.

    2012-01-01

    Students' perceptions of their school climates are associated with psychosocial and academic adjustment. The present study examined the role of school strategies to promote safety in predicting students' perceptions of safety for gender nonconforming peers among 1415 students in 28 high schools. Using multilevel modeling techniques, we examined…

  14. Measuring safety of inhaled corticosteroids in asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Anthony N

    2016-12-01

    Despite evidence demonstrating generally excellent therapeutic ratios for inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) in asthma treatment, many clinicians and patients have ongoing concerns regarding their safety. To frame discussions of ICS safety, it is important to understand how safety is measured. To discuss how ICS safety is and should be measured. Discussion is augmented by relevant articles from the literature. The therapeutic value of corticosteroids depends on the activation and repression of thousands of genes. However, it is not fully known which genes cause the desirable, therapeutic effects and which cause the adverse effects. The drug development process attempts to elucidate the clinically significant therapeutic effects and adverse effects of a candidate molecule and then compare them to those of currently available corticosteroids. Approaches to monitoring safety include clinical trials, retrospective comparison to historical efficacy and safety data, surrogate markers, animal models, and in vitro assays. Both preclinical and clinical data are used to compare safety among corticosteroids; however, no specific pathway or model that can robustly predict therapeutic ratios has been identified. Furthermore, variation in adverse effects is influenced by isoforms of the glucocorticoid receptor, differences in corticosteroid characteristics, differences among patients, and environmental variation. Although some preclinical and patient-based metrics have predictive value, there is a clear need for improved biomarkers of corticosteroid adverse effects. Integrated analysis of preclinical and clinical data, including long-term safety data, could be used to address this important unmet need. Copyright © 2016 American College of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Organizational safety climate and supervisor safety enforcement: Multilevel explorations of the causes of accident underreporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Probst, Tahira M

    2015-11-01

    According to national surveillance statistics, over 3 million employees are injured each year; yet, research indicates that these may be substantial underestimates of the true prevalence. The purpose of the current project was to empirically test the hypothesis that organizational safety climate and transactional supervisor safety leadership would predict the extent to which accidents go unreported by employees. Using hierarchical linear modeling and survey data collected from 1,238 employees in 33 organizations, employee-level supervisor safety enforcement behaviors (and to a less consistent extent, organizational-level safety climate) predicted employee accident underreporting. There was also a significant cross-level interaction, such that the effect of supervisor enforcement on underreporting was attenuated in organizations with a positive safety climate. These results may benefit human resources and safety professionals by pinpointing methods of increasing the accuracy of accident reporting, reducing actual safety incidents, and reducing the costs to individuals and organizations that result from underreporting. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Analysis of Aviation Safety Reporting System Incident Data Associated With the Technical Challenges of the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Withrow, Colleen A.; Reveley, Mary S.

    2014-01-01

    This analysis was conducted to support the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology (VSST) Project of the Aviation Safety Program (AVsP) milestone VSST4.2.1.01, "Identification of VSST-Related Trends." In particular, this is a review of incident data from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The following three VSST-related technical challenges (TCs) were the focus of the incidents searched in the ASRS database: (1) Vechicle health assurance, (2) Effective crew-system interactions and decisions in all conditions; and (3) Aircraft loss of control prevention, mitigation, and recovery.

  17. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    rinaldi, eleonora; colella, simone; santoleri, rosalia

    2014-05-01

    Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, seen as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool in order to understand the response of marine ecosystem to human pressures. This is particularly important along the coastal regions, in which the strong anthropization and the irrational exploitation of resources represent a persistent threat to the biodiversity. The aim of this work is to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of using Ocean Color (OC) data to monitor the environmental changes in Mediterranean Sea and to develop a method for detecting trend from OC data that can constitute a new indicator of the water quality within the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive implementation. In this study the Mediterranean merged Case1-Case2 chlorophyll product, produced by CNR-ISAC and distributed in the framework of MyOcean, is analyzed. This product is obtained by using two different bio-optical algorithms for open ocean (Case1) and coastal turbid (Case2) waters; this improves the quality of the Chl satellite estimates, especially near the coast. In order to verify the real capability of the this product for estimating Chl trend and for selecting the most appropriated statistical test to detect trend in the Mediterranean Sea, a comparison between OC and in situ data are carried out. In-situ Chl data are part of the European Environment Information and Observation Network (Eionet) of the European Environmental Agency (EEA). Four different statistical approaches to estimate trend have been selected and used to compare trend values obtained with in-situ and OC data. Results show that the best agreement between in-situ and OC trend is achieved using the Mann- Kendall test. The Mediterranean trend map obtained applying this test to the de-seasonalized OC time series shows that, in accordance with the results of many authors, the case 1 waters of Mediterranean sea are characterized by a negative trend. However, the most intense trend signals, both negative

  18. Modelling safety of multistate systems with ageing components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna [Gdynia Maritime University, Department of Mathematics ul. Morska 81-87, Gdynia 81-225 Poland (Poland)

    2016-06-08

    An innovative approach to safety analysis of multistate ageing systems is presented. Basic notions of the ageing multistate systems safety analysis are introduced. The system components and the system multistate safety functions are defined. The mean values and variances of the multistate systems lifetimes in the safety state subsets and the mean values of their lifetimes in the particular safety states are defined. The multi-state system risk function and the moment of exceeding by the system the critical safety state are introduced. Applications of the proposed multistate system safety models to the evaluation and prediction of the safty characteristics of the consecutive “m out of n: F” is presented as well.

  19. Formal Safety versus Real Safety: Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches to Safety Culture – Evidence from Estonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Järvis Marina

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines differences between formal safety and real safety in Estonian small and medium-sized enterprises. The results reveal key issues in safety culture assessment. Statistical analysis of safety culture questionnaires showed many organisations with an outstanding safety culture and positive safety attitudes. However, qualitative data indicated some important safety weaknesses and aspects that should be included in the process of evaluation of safety culture in organisations.

  20. Towards the Design of Safety-Critical Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Rafeh

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Safety is the most important factor when developing software for safety-critical systems. Traditional approaches attempted to achieve safety through testing the software. However, there might be some bugs in the software not revealed in the test procedure. Formal verification is a new trend in developing safe software. In this paper, we propose a multi-phase formal approach for safety management in safety-critical software. We use timed transition Petri-net as a formal means to specify the properties of the model and their relations in each component of the software. In addition, we use the Z language to specify textual and mathematical specifications of the model, as a representative model to evaluate the proposed approach; we chose continuous infusion insulin pump (CIIP.

  1. Googling trends in conservation biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

    2014-02-01

    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  2. Genetic trends in the performance and reproductive traits of pigs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodolpho de Almeida Torres Filho

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available The selection and evaluation of breeds and purebred lines to be used as the parental stock is an important step for the success of any animal breeding program. In this study, the feed:gain ratio, backfat thickness corrected for 100 kg, age to 100 kg, average daily gain, and age of sow at first farrowing were used to evaluate the genetic trends for direct and maternal additive genetic values in Large White pigs. The total number of piglets born or born alive and the litter weight at birth were used as indicators of the genetic trends for the direct additive values. The genetic trends were calculated by regression of the average predicted genetic values per year for each trait versus the offspring's year of birth (for performance traits or versus the dam year of birth (for reproduction traits. The genetic trend estimates for direct effects showed that selection decisions made during the breeding program effectively improved the performance traits. However, for reproductive traits, the regression estimates showed no definite trend. The genetic trends for the maternal effects were generally positive but of low magnitude.

  3. The Relationships Between the Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yaping; Lau, William K.-M.

    2017-01-01

    This study provides a better understanding of the relationships between the trends of mean and extreme precipitation in two observed precipitation data sets: the Climate Prediction Center Unified daily precipitation data set and the Global Precipitation Climatology Program (GPCP) pentad data set. The study employs three kinds of definitions of extreme precipitation: (1) percentile, (2) standard deviation and (3) generalize extreme value (GEV) distribution analysis for extreme events based on local statistics. Relationship between trends in the mean and extreme precipitation is identified with a novel metric, i.e. area aggregated matching ratio (AAMR) computed on regional and global scales. Generally, more (less) extreme events are likely to occur in regions with a positive (negative) mean trend. The match between the mean and extreme trends deteriorates for increasingly heavy precipitation events. The AAMR is higher in regions with negative mean trends than in regions with positive mean trends, suggesting a higher likelihood of severe dry events, compared with heavy rain events in a warming climate. AAMR is found to be higher in tropics and oceans than in the extratropics and land regions, reflecting a higher degree of randomness and more important dynamical rather than thermodynamical contributions of extreme events in the latter regions.

  4. Trends in building automation; Trends in der Gebaeudeautomation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staub, R.

    2000-07-01

    This article reviews the three main trends in building automation found by the author at the Light and Building trade fair in Frankfurt in 2000. The fair, which took place for the first time in 2000, attracted 1800 exhibitors from 46 countries and featured products from the air-conditioning, building automation, lighting and electrical installations areas. Integrated planning and implementation is contrasted with the structure of the exhibition, which still reflects trade association structures instead of technical integration of different systems. A further trend - that of standardisation of building automation systems is discussed and illustrated with examples such as EIB, LON and BACNet. Latest developments in the professional association scene are looked at and marketing and practice are reviewed using examples from various companies active in this area. The third trend looked at is that of building automation via Internet, which is becoming attractive for the management of properties distributed over larger areas.

  5. Reliability and safety engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

    2016-01-01

    Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

  6. Safety objectives for 2014

    CERN Multimedia

    HSE Unit

    2014-01-01

    This is the third year in which the CERN Management has presented annual safety objectives for the Organization, the “HSE Objectives”.   The HSE objectives for 2014, which were announced by the Director-General at his traditional New Year’s address to the staff and were presented at the first Enlarged Directorate meeting of the year, have been drawn up and agreed in close collaboration between the DSOs, the HSE Unit and the DG himself. From safety in the workplace to radiation and environmental protection, the document emphasises that “Safety is a priority for CERN” and that safety policy is a key element in how the Organization is run. And, like all policies, it generates objectives that “serve as a general framework for action”. The HSE objectives are broken down into the following fields: occupational health and safety on sites and in the workplace, radiation protection, radiation safety, environmental protection, emerge...

  7. Safety advice sheets

    CERN Multimedia

    HSE Unit

    2013-01-01

    You never know when you might be faced with questions such as: when/how should I dispose of a gas canister? Where can I find an inspection report? How should I handle/store/dispose of a chemical substance…?   The SI section of the DGS/SEE Group is primarily responsible for safety inspections, evaluating the safety conditions of equipment items, premises and facilities. On top of this core task, it also regularly issues “Safety Advice Sheets” on various topics, designed to be of assistance to users but also to recall and reinforce safety rules and procedures. These clear and concise sheets, complete with illustrations, are easy to display in the appropriate areas. The following safety advice sheets have been issued so far: Other sheets will be published shortly. Suggestions are welcome and should be sent to the SI section of the DGS/SEE Group. Please send enquiries to general-safety-visits.service@cern.ch.

  8. Promoting safety voice with safety-specific transformational leadership: the mediating role of two dimensions of trust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conchie, Stacey M; Taylor, Paul J; Donald, Ian J

    2012-01-01

    Although safety-specific transformational leadership is known to encourage employee safety voice behaviors, less is known about what makes this style of leadership effective. We tested a model that links safety-specific transformational leadership to safety voice through various dimensions of trust. Data from 150 supervisor-employee dyads from the United Kingdom oil industry supported our predictions that the effects of safety-specific transformational leadership are sequentially mediated by affect-based trust beliefs and disclosure trust intentions. Moreover, we found that reliance trust intentions moderated the effect of disclosure: employees' disclosure intentions mediated the effects of affect-based trust on safety voice behaviors only when employees' intention to rely on their leader was moderate to high. These findings suggest that leaders seeking to encourage safety voice behaviors should go beyond "good reason" arguments and develop affective bonds with their employees.

  9. Hydrogen Technologies Safety Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivkin, C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Burgess, R. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Buttner, W. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this guide is to provide basic background information on hydrogen technologies. It is intended to provide project developers, code officials, and other interested parties the background information to be able to put hydrogen safety in context. For example, code officials reviewing permit applications for hydrogen projects will get an understanding of the industrial history of hydrogen, basic safety concerns, and safety requirements.

  10. Principles of electrical safety

    CERN Document Server

    Sutherland, Peter E

    2015-01-01

    Principles of Electrical Safety discusses current issues in electrical safety, which are accompanied by series' of practical applications that can be used by practicing professionals, graduate students, and researchers. .  Provides extensive introductions to important topics in electrical safety Comprehensive overview of inductance, resistance, and capacitance as applied to the human body Serves as a preparatory guide for today's practicing engineers

  11. Global fertility and population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  12. Lift truck safety review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadwallader, L.C.

    1997-03-01

    This report presents safety information about powered industrial trucks. The basic lift truck, the counterbalanced sit down rider truck, is the primary focus of the report. Lift truck engineering is briefly described, then a hazard analysis is performed on the lift truck. Case histories and accident statistics are also given. Rules and regulations about lift trucks, such as the US Occupational Safety an Health Administration laws and the Underwriter`s Laboratories standards, are discussed. Safety issues with lift trucks are reviewed, and lift truck safety and reliability are discussed. Some quantitative reliability values are given.

  13. FOOD SAFETY TESTING LABORATORY

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — This laboratory develops screening assays, tests and modifies biosensor equipment, and optimizes food safety testing protocols for the military and civilian sector...

  14. Training safely, Training safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Wu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available It is the basic requirement of maritime safety education to guarantee the safety of teaching operation while training the crew's occupation safety capability. Marine Training Center of Shanghai Maritime University has undertaken the practical teaching of "marine survival" for many years and come up with the whole safety procedures of training. Based on the requirements of SOLAS convention and regulations of STCW over crew training, this paper introduces the safety allocation, utilization and maintenance of teaching equipments. Through the investigation of the safety situation of students' practical operation, the safety teaching method named "four in one" has been put forward, which includes the pre-teaching safety precaution, the whole monitor during the teaching process, the post-teaching summary evaluation, and the reset and standby of teaching facilities. Finally, during the learning and training of "marine survival", crews and students are called on to place priority on personal safety rather than acquisition of knowledge and skills. Only in this way can they be capable of self-protection and protection of others in the career of seafaring.

  15. Improved safety at CERN

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    As announced in Weekly Bulletin No. 43/2006, a new approach to the implementation of Safety at CERN has been decided, which required taking some managerial decisions. The guidelines of the new approach are described in the document 'New approach to Safety implementation at CERN', which also summarizes the main managerial decisions I have taken to strengthen compliance with the CERN Safety policy and Rules. To this end I have also reviewed the mandates of the Safety Commission and the Safety Policy Committee (SAPOCO). Some details of the document 'Safety Policy at CERN' (also known as SAPOCO42) have been modified accordingly; its essential principles, unchanged, remain the basis for the safety policy of the Organisation. I would also like to inform you that I have appointed Dr M. Bona as the new Head of the Safety Commission until 31.12.2008, and that I will proceed soon to the appointment of the members of the new Safety Policy Committee. All members of the personnel are deemed to have taken note of the d...

  16. Light water reactor safety

    CERN Document Server

    Pershagen, B

    2013-01-01

    This book describes the principles and practices of reactor safety as applied to the design, regulation and operation of light water reactors, combining a historical approach with an up-to-date account of the safety, technology and operating experience of both pressurized water reactors and boiling water reactors. The introductory chapters set out the basic facts upon which the safety of light water reactors depend. The central section is devoted to the methods and results of safety analysis. The accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl are reviewed and their implications for light wate

  17. Process safety improvement-Quality and target zero

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Scyoc, Karl [Det Norske Veritas (U.S.A.) Inc., DNV Energy Solutions, 16340 Park Ten Place, Suite 100, Houston, TX 77084 (United States)], E-mail: karl.van.scyoc@dnv.com

    2008-11-15

    Process safety practitioners have adopted quality management principles in design of process safety management systems with positive effect, yet achieving safety objectives sometimes remain a distant target. Companies regularly apply tools and methods which have roots in quality and productivity improvement. The 'plan, do, check, act' improvement loop, statistical analysis of incidents (non-conformities), and performance trending popularized by Dr. Deming are now commonly used in the context of process safety. Significant advancements in HSE performance are reported after applying methods viewed as fundamental for quality management. In pursuit of continual process safety improvement, the paper examines various quality improvement methods, and explores how methods intended for product quality can be additionally applied to continual improvement of process safety. Methods such as Kaizen, Poke yoke, and TRIZ, while long established for quality improvement, are quite unfamiliar in the process safety arena. These methods are discussed for application in improving both process safety leadership and field work team performance. Practical ways to advance process safety, based on the methods, are given.

  18. Process safety improvement--quality and target zero.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Scyoc, Karl

    2008-11-15

    Process safety practitioners have adopted quality management principles in design of process safety management systems with positive effect, yet achieving safety objectives sometimes remain a distant target. Companies regularly apply tools and methods which have roots in quality and productivity improvement. The "plan, do, check, act" improvement loop, statistical analysis of incidents (non-conformities), and performance trending popularized by Dr. Deming are now commonly used in the context of process safety. Significant advancements in HSE performance are reported after applying methods viewed as fundamental for quality management. In pursuit of continual process safety improvement, the paper examines various quality improvement methods, and explores how methods intended for product quality can be additionally applied to continual improvement of process safety. Methods such as Kaizen, Poke yoke, and TRIZ, while long established for quality improvement, are quite unfamiliar in the process safety arena. These methods are discussed for application in improving both process safety leadership and field work team performance. Practical ways to advance process safety, based on the methods, are given.

  19. A holistic approach to food safety risks: Food fraud as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvin, Hans J P; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Janssen, Esmée M; van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, Esther D; Kleter, Gijs A

    2016-11-01

    Production of sufficient, safe and nutritious food is a global challenge faced by the actors operating in the food production chain. The performance of food-producing systems from farm to fork is directly and indirectly influenced by major changes in, for example, climate, demographics, and the economy. Many of these major trends will also drive the development of food safety risks and thus will have an effect on human health, local societies and economies. It is advocated that a holistic or system approach taking into account the influence of multiple "drivers" on food safety is followed to predict the increased likelihood of occurrence of safety incidents so as to be better prepared to prevent, mitigate and manage associated risks. The value of using a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling approach for this purpose is demonstrated in this paper using food fraud as an example. Possible links between food fraud cases retrieved from the RASFF (EU) and EMA (USA) databases and features of these cases provided by both the records themselves and additional data obtained from other sources are demonstrated. The BN model was developed from 1393 food fraud cases and 15 different data sources. With this model applied to these collected data on food fraud cases, the product categories that thus showed the highest probabilities of being fraudulent were "fish and seafood" (20.6%), "meat" (13.4%) and "fruits and vegetables" (10.4%). Features of the country of origin appeared to be important factors in identifying the possible hazards associated with a product. The model had a predictive accuracy of 91.5% for the fraud type and demonstrates how expert knowledge and data can be combined within a model to assist risk managers to better understand the factors and their interrelationships. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Trends in Reported Foodborne Illness in the United States; 1996-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Mark R

    2016-08-01

    Retrospective review is a key to designing effective food safety measures. The analysis examines trends in the reported incidence of illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013 with and without specifying a model form for trend. The findings indicate early declines in reported incidence followed by a period of no significant trend for Campylobacter, Listeria, Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157, and Yersinia. The results are inconclusive about whether there is no trend or an increasing trend for Salmonella. While Shigella exhibits a continuous decline, Vibrio exhibits a continuous increase. Overall, the findings indicate a lack of evidence for continuous reduction in illness due to bacterial pathogens commonly transmitted by food in the United States during 1996-2013. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.