WorldWideScience

Sample records for safety trend prediction

  1. Safety system function trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, C.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes research to develop risk-based indicators of plant safety performance. One measure of the safety-performance of operating nuclear power plants is the unavailability of important safety systems. Brookhaven National Laboratory and Science Applications International Corporation are evaluating ways to aggregate train-level or component-level data to provide such an indicator. This type of indicator would respond to changes in plant safety margins faster than the currently used indicator of safety system unavailability (i.e., safety system failures reported in licensee event reports). Trends in the proposed indicator would be one indication of trends in plant safety performance and maintenance effectiveness. This paper summarizes the basis for such an indicator, identifies technical issues to be resolved, and illustrates the potential usefullness of such indicators by means of computer simulations and case studies

  2. New trends in pile safety instrumentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furet, J.

    1961-01-01

    This report addresses the protection of nuclear piles against damages due to operation incidents. The author discusses the current trends in the philosophy of safety of atomic power piles, identifies the parameters which define safety systems, presents tests to be performed on safety chains, comments the relationship between safety and the decrease of the number of pile inadvertent shutdowns, discusses the issues of instrument failures and chain multiplicity, comments the possible improvement of the operation of elements which build up safety chains (design simplification, development of semiconductors, replacement of electromechanical relays by static relays), the role of safety logical computers and the development of automatics in pile safety, presents automatic control as a safety factor (example of automatic start-up), and finally comments the use of fuses

  3. Prediction of Safety Incidents

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Safety incidents, including injuries, property damage and mission failures, cost NASA and contractors thousands of dollars in direct and indirect costs. This project...

  4. Supervision of nuclear safety - IAEA requirements, accepted solutions, trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jurkowski, M.

    2007-01-01

    Ten principles of the nuclear safety, based on the IAEA's standards are presented. Convention on Nuclear Safety recommends for nuclear safety landscape, the control transparency, culture safety, legal framework and knowledge preservation. Examples of solutions accepted in France, Finland, and Czech Republic are discussed. New trends in safety fundamentals and Integration Regulatory Review are presented

  5. Emerging trends in PHWR safety - post Fukushima measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nitheanandan, T.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear power continues to be the choice for many countries that are seeking to enhance their energy security and reduce their carbon emissions. Nuclear power plants are complex systems which require multiple layers of protection. The fundamental principle of nuclear power safety technology is ‘Defence-in-Depth’ that underlies all safety activities - organizational, behavioural and technical. This provides layers of overlapping barrier protections so that, in the unlikely event that failure occurs, it would be compensated or corrected without causing harm to individuals or the public at large. Defence-in-depth encompasses prevention, control, protection, severe accident management and consequence mitigation, and offsite emergency response measures. Reactor Safety Science and Technology (S and T) has evolved over more than four decades in a number of PHWR countries. The PHWR operators, regulators and national research laboratories have dedicated S and T programs to continuously improve plant safety, operations and margins. The S and T is focused on finding simpler, less costly and more reliable safety system designs. These improvements are continuously incorporated in current units, refurbished units and proposed new builds. The Fukushima accident forced most nuclear nations to reassess and implement reactor design upgrades. The lessons learned from Fukushima have generated some nuclear safety enhancements such as: Design considerations for natural hazards, Diversity of heat sinks, Consideration of extended duration station blackout, Improvements to Severe Accident Management and SAM Operational aids, Accident instrumentation, Offsite management such as the use of predictive exposure tools, and Design considerations for Spent Fuel Pools. The plenary presentation will provide some of the emerging trends following the Fukushima accident. Examples of these emerging trends in Canada and on the international scene, will be presented. (author)

  6. Trends in fuel reprocessing safety research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsujino, Takeshi

    1981-01-01

    With the operation of a fuel reprocessing plant in the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PNC) and the plan for a second fuel reprocessing plant, the research on fuel reprocessing safety, along with the reprocessing technology itself, has become increasingly important. As compared with the case of LWR power plants, the safety research in this field still lags behind. In the safety of fuel reprocessing, there are the aspects of keeping radiation exposure as low as possible in both personnel and local people, the high reliability of the plant operation and the securing of public safety in accidents. Safety research is then required to establish the safety standards and to raise the rate of plant operation associated with safety. The following matters are described: basic ideas for the safety design, safety features in fuel reprocessing, safety guideline and standards, and safety research for fuel reprocessing. (J.P.N.)

  7. Status and trends in IAEA safety standards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lipar, M.

    2004-01-01

    While safety is a national responsibility, international standards and approaches to safety promote consistency and facilitate international technical co-operation and trade, and help to provide assurance that nuclear and radiation related technologies are used safely. The standards also provide support for States in meeting their international obligations. One general international obligation is that a State must not pursue activities that cause damage in another State. More specific obligations on Contracting States are set out in international safety related conventions. The internationally agreed IAEA safety standards provide the basis for States to demonstrate that they are meeting these obligations. These standards are founded in the IAEA's Statute, which authorizes the Agency to establish standards of safety for nuclear and radiation related facilities and activities and to provide for their application. The safety standards reflect an international consensus on what constitutes a high level of safety for protecting people and the environment. (orig.) [de

  8. Recent trends in particle accelerator radiation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohnesorge, W.F.; Butler, H.M.

    1974-01-01

    The use of particle accelerators in applied and research activities continues to expand, bringing new machines with higher energy and current capabilities which create radiation safety problems not commonly encountered before. An overview is given of these increased ionizing radiation hazards, along with a discussion of some of the new techniques required in evaluating and controlling them. A computer search of the literature provided a relatively comprehensive list of publications describing accelerator radiation safety problems and related subjects

  9. Nuclear safety: Impressive and worrisome trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meserve, R.A.

    2006-01-01

    The safety record for commercial nuclear power has, in the main, been impressive in recent years. Nonetheless, noteworthy events continue to occur around the globe, including events at reactors operating in countries with extensive operational experience and strong regulatory capabilities. None of the recent events has resulted in a substantial off-site release of radioactivity. But these events reinforce how wrong it would be to assume that the safety challenge has been 'solved' and that attention can be focused on other matters. There are other worrisome problems that include: aging nuclear power plants, decay in the nuclear infrastructure and expanding interest in nuclear power among countries with out prior experience of operating nuclear power plants

  10. Fault trend prediction of device based on support vector regression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Meicun; Cai Qi

    2011-01-01

    The research condition of fault trend prediction and the basic theory of support vector regression (SVR) were introduced. SVR was applied to the fault trend prediction of roller bearing, and compared with other methods (BP neural network, gray model, and gray-AR model). The results show that BP network tends to overlearn and gets into local minimum so that the predictive result is unstable. It also shows that the predictive result of SVR is stabilization, and SVR is superior to BP neural network, gray model and gray-AR model in predictive precision. SVR is a kind of effective method of fault trend prediction. (authors)

  11. Trends in fusion reactor safety research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herring, J.S.; Holland, D.F.; Piet, S.J.

    1991-01-01

    Fusion has the potential to be an attractive energy source. From the safety and environmental perspective, fusion must avoid concerns about catastrophic accidents and unsolvable waste disposal. In addition, fusion must achieve an acceptable level of risk from operational accidents that result in public exposure and economic loss. Finally, fusion reactors must control routine radioactive effluent, particularly tritium. Major progress in achieving this potential rests on development of low-activation materials or alternative fuels. The safety and performance of various material choices and fuels for commercial fusion reactors can be investigated relatively inexpensively through reactor design studies. These studies bring together experts in a wide range of backgrounds and force the group to either agree on a reactor design or identify areas for further study. Fusion reactors will be complex with distributed radioactive inventories. The next generation of experiments will be critical in demonstrating that acceptable levels of safe operation can be achieved. These machines will use materials which are available today and for which a large database exists (e.g. for 316 stainless steel). Researchers have developed a good understanding of the risks associated with operation of these devices. Specifically, consequences from coolant system failures, loss of vacuum events, tritium releases, and liquid metal reactions have been studied. Recent studies go beyond next step designs and investigate commercial reactor concerns including tritium release and liquid metal reactions. 18 refs

  12. Trends in safety objectives for nuclear district heating plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brogli, R [Paul Scherrer Inst., Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-09-01

    Safety objectives for dedicated nuclear heating plants are strongly influenced on the one hand by what is accepted for electricity nuclear stations, and on the other hand by the requirement that for economical reasons heating reactors have to be located close to population centers. The paper discusses the related trends and comes to the conclusion that on account of the specific technical characteristics of nuclear heating plants adequate safety can be provided even for highly populated sites. (author). 8 refs.

  13. The predictive validity of safety climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephen E

    2007-01-01

    Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group

  14. Nursing education trends: future implications and predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valiga, Theresa M Terry

    2012-12-01

    This article examines current trends in nursing education and proposes numerous transformations needed to ensure that programs are relevant, fully engage learners, reflect evidence-based teaching practices, and are innovative. Such program characteristics are essential if we are to graduate nurses who can practice effectively in today's complex, ambiguous, ever-changing health care environments and who are prepared to practice in and, indeed, shape tomorrow's unknown practice environments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  16. Safety system function trend indicator: Theory and test application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.

    1989-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to summarize research conducted on the development and validation of quantitative indicators of safety performance. This work, performed under the Risk-Based Performance Indicator (RBPI) Project, FIN A-3295, for the Office of Research (RES), is considered part of NRC's Performance Indicator Program which is being coordinated through the Office for the Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD). The program originally focused on risk-based indicators at high levels of safety indices (e.g., core-damage frequency, functional unavailabilities, and sequence monitoring). The program was then redirected towards a more amenable goal, safety system unavailability indicators, mainly due to the lack of PRA models and plant data. In that regard, BNL published a technical report that introduced the concept of cycle-based indicators and also described various alternatives of monitoring safety system unavailabilities. Further simplification of these indicators was requested by NRC to facilitate their applications to all plants in a timely manner. This resulted in the development of Safety System Function Trend (SSFT) indicators which minimize the need for detailed system model as well as component history. The theoretical bases for these indicators were developed through various simulation studies to determine the ease of detecting a trend and/or unacceptable performance. These indicators, along with several other indicators, were then generated and compared using plant data as a part of a test application. The SSFT indicators, specifically, were constructed for a total of eight plants, consisting of two systems per plant. Emphasis was placed on examining relative changes, as well as the indicator's actual level. Both the trend and actual indicator level were found to be important in identifying plants with potential problems

  17. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmandar, Mohammadreza; Soori, Hamid; Mehrabi, Yadolah

    2016-01-01

    Predicting the trend in traffic accidents deaths and its analysis can be a useful tool for planning and policy-making, conducting interventions appropriate with death trend, and taking the necessary actions required for controlling and preventing future occurrences. Predicting and analyzing the trend of traffic accidents deaths in Iran in 2014 and 2015. It was a cross-sectional study. All the information related to fatal traffic accidents available in the database of Iran Legal Medicine Organization from 2004 to the end of 2013 were used to determine the change points (multi-variable time series analysis). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, traffic accidents death rates were predicted for 2014 and 2015, and a comparison was made between this rate and the predicted value in order to determine the efficiency of the model. From the results, the actual death rate in 2014 was almost similar to that recorded for this year, while in 2015 there was a decrease compared with the previous year (2014) for all the months. A maximum value of 41% was also predicted for the months of January and February, 2015. From the prediction and analysis of the death trends, proper application and continuous use of the intervention conducted in the previous years for road safety improvement, motor vehicle safety improvement, particularly training and culture-fostering interventions, as well as approval and execution of deterrent regulations for changing the organizational behaviors, can significantly decrease the loss caused by traffic accidents.

  18. Mining Behavior Based Safety Data to Predict Safety Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeffrey C. Joe

    2010-06-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) operates a behavior based safety program called Safety Observations Achieve Results (SOAR). This peer-to-peer observation program encourages employees to perform in-field observations of each other's work practices and habits (i.e., behaviors). The underlying premise of conducting these observations is that more serious accidents are prevented from occurring because lower level “at risk” behaviors are identified and corrected before they can propagate into culturally accepted “unsafe” behaviors that result in injuries or fatalities. Although the approach increases employee involvement in safety, the premise of the program has not been subject to sufficient empirical evaluation. The INL now has a significant amount of SOAR data on these lower level “at risk” behaviors. This paper describes the use of data mining techniques to analyze these data to determine whether they can predict if and when a more serious accident will occur.

  19. Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

    2017-04-01

    This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Safety prediction technique for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, C.D. III; Anderson, R.T.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents a safety prediction technique (SPT) developed by Reliability Technology Associates (RTA) for nuclear power plants. It is based on a technique applied by RTA to assess the flight safety of US Air Force aircraft. The purpose of SPT is to provide a computerized technique for objective measurement of the effect on nuclear plant safety of component failure or procedural, software, or human error. A quantification is determined, called criticality, which is proportional to the probability that a given component or procedural-human action will cause the plant to operate in a hazardous mode. A hazardous mode is characterized by the fact that there has been a failure/error and the plant, its operating crew, and the public are exposed to danger. Whether the event results in an accident, an incident, or merely the exposure to danger is dependent on the skill and reaction of the operating crew as well as external influences. There are three major uses of SPT: (a) to predict unsafe situations so that corrective action can be taken before accidents occur, (b) to quantify the impact of equipment malfunction or procedural, software, or human error on safety and thereby establish priorities for proposed modifications, and (c) to provide a means of evaluating proposed changes for their impact on safety prior to implementation and to provide a method of tracking implemented changes

  1. Analyzing research trends on drug safety using topic modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Chen

    2018-04-06

    Published drug safety data has evolved in the past decade due to scientific and technological advances in the relevant research fields. Considering that a vast amount of scientific literature has been published in this area, it is not easy to identify the key information. Topic modeling has emerged as a powerful tool to extract meaningful information from a large volume of unstructured texts. Areas covered: We analyzed the titles and abstracts of 4347 articles in four journals dedicated to drug safety from 2007 to 2016. We applied Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model to extract 50 main topics, and conducted trend analysis to explore the temporal popularity of these topics over years. Expert Opinion/Commentary: We found that 'benefit-risk assessment and communication', 'diabetes' and 'biologic therapy for autoimmune diseases' are the top 3 most published topics. The topics relevant to the use of electronic health records/observational data for safety surveillance are becoming increasingly popular over time. Meanwhile, there is a slight decrease in research on signal detection based on spontaneous reporting, although spontaneous reporting still plays an important role in benefit-risk assessment. The topics related to medical conditions and treatment showed highly dynamic patterns over time.

  2. Predicting the Trends of Social Events on Chinese Social Media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Lei; Liu, Xiaoqian; Zhang, Zhen; Bai, Shuotian; Zhu, Tingshao

    2017-09-01

    Growing interest in social events on social media came along with the rapid development of the Internet. Social events that occur in the "real" world can spread on social media (e.g., Sina Weibo) rapidly, which may trigger severe consequences and thus require the government's timely attention and responses. This article proposes to predict the trends of social events on Sina Weibo, which is currently the most popular social media in China. Based on the theories of social psychology and communication sciences, we extract an unprecedented amount of comprehensive and effective features that relate to the trends of social events on Chinese social media, and we construct the trends of prediction models by using three classical regression algorithms. We found that lasso regression performed better with the precision 0.78 and the recall 0.88. The results of our experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

  3. Applicability of trends in nuclear safety analysis to space nuclear power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bari, R.A.

    1992-01-01

    A survey is presented of some current trends in nuclear safety analysis that may be relevant to space nuclear power systems. This includes: lessons learned from operating power reactor safety and licensing; approaches to the safety design of advanced and novel reactors and facilities; the roles of risk assessment, extremely unlikely accidents, safety goals/targets; and risk-benefit analysis and communication

  4. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  5. Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-06-01

    Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

  6. Predicting safety culture: the roles of employer, operations manager and safety professional.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tsung-Chih; Lin, Chia-Hung; Shiau, Sen-Yu

    2010-10-01

    This study explores predictive factors in safety culture. In 2008, a sample 939 employees was drawn from 22 departments of a telecoms firm in five regions in central Taiwan. The sample completed a questionnaire containing four scales: the employer safety leadership scale, the operations manager safety leadership scale, the safety professional safety leadership scale, and the safety culture scale. The sample was then randomly split into two subsamples. One subsample was used for measures development, one for the empirical study. A stepwise regression analysis found four factors with a significant impact on safety culture (R²=0.337): safety informing by operations managers; safety caring by employers; and safety coordination and safety regulation by safety professionals. Safety informing by operations managers (ß=0.213) was by far the most significant predictive factor. The findings of this study provide a framework for promoting a positive safety culture at the group level. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. New trends in safety approach for commercial LMFBRS after SPX1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergeonneau, P.; Moreau, J.; Cowking, C.B.; Friedel, G.; Pezzxilli, M.

    1988-01-01

    The experience gained from SPX1 project safety studies shows the trends for the definition of the new safety approach for the next generation of commercial LMFBR's. New trends in safety criteria, as seen in Europe, are presented in the first part of this paper. It is shown that they greatly emphasize the prevention actions even for minor events which can, in certain cases, lead to severe accidents. In the second part, an attempt is made to compare these new trends in Europe with the ones developed in the USA that put forward the inherent safety approach

  8. The safety indicators program in Taiwan, China : a six-year trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, Mingte

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents data on the current operating status and the safety indicators (SI) of the six nuclear power units in Taiwan. Analysis of the data collected in a six-year period has been made to obtain trends for each safety indicator. An overview of the trends of the plant operational data during the same period are also provided and discussed. On the whole, the trends of safety indicators are improving during the observed period 1991-1996. The plant operational data have depicted coherent improvement with the safety indicator trends. This result supports the premise that improvements in safety performance and in operational reliability are correspondingly inter-dependent. Both the safety indicators quarterly report and the annual report are available to the public. The public can also approach this information from the AEC's World Wide Web site (http://www.aec.gov.tw). (author)

  9. Safety prediction for basic components of safety critical software based on static testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, H.S.; Seong, P.H.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to develop a safety prediction method, with which we can predict the risk of software components based on static testing results at the early development stage. The predictive model combines the major factor with the quality factor for the components, both of which are calculated based on the measures proposed in this work. The application to a safety-critical software system demonstrates the feasibility of the safety prediction method. (authors)

  10. Safety prediction for basic components of safety-critical software based on static testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, H.S.; Seong, P.H.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to develop a safety prediction method, with which we can predict the risk of software components based on static testing results at the early development stage. The predictive model combines the major factor with the quality factor for the components, which are calculated based on the measures proposed in this work. The application to a safety-critical software system demonstrates the feasibility of the safety prediction method. (authors)

  11. Modeling pitting growth data and predicting degradation trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viglasky, T.; Awad, R.; Zeng, Z.; Riznic, J.

    2007-01-01

    A non-statistical modeling approach to predict material degradation is presented in this paper. In this approach, the original data series is processed using Accumulated Generating Operation (AGO). With the aid of the AGO which weakens the random fluctuation embedded in the data series, an approximately exponential curve is established. The generated data series described by the exponential curve is then modeled by a differential equation. The coefficients of the differential equation can be deduced by approximate difference formula based on least-squares algorithm. By solving the differential equation and processing an inverse AGO, a predictive model can be obtained. As this approach is not established on the basis of statistics, the prediction can be performed with a limited amount of data. Implementation of this approach is demonstrated by predicting the pitting growth rate in specimens and wear trend in steam generator tubes. The analysis results indicate that this approach provides a powerful tool with reasonable precision to predict material degradation. (author)

  12. Development Trends in Nuclear Technology and Related Safety Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuczera, B.; Juhn, P.E.; Fukuda, K.

    2002-01-01

    The IAEA Safety Standards Series include, in a hierarchical manner, the categories of Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides, which define the elements necessary to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. In the same way as nuclear technology and scientific knowledge advance continuously, also safety requirements may change with these advances. Therefore, in the framework of the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) one important aspect among others refers to user requirements on the safety of innovative nuclear installations, which may come into operation within the next fifty years. In this respect, the major objectives of the INPRO sub-task 'User Requirements and Nuclear Energy Development Criteria in the Area of Safety' have been: a. to overview existing national and international requirements in the safety area, b. to define high level user requirements in the area of safety of innovative nuclear technologies, c. to compile and to analyze existing innovative reactor and fuel cycle technology enhancement concepts and approaches intended to achieve a high degree of safety, and d. to identify the general areas of safety R and D needs for the establishment of these technologies. During the discussions it became evident that the application of the defence in depth strategy will continue to be the overriding approach for achieving the general safety objective in nuclear power plants and fuel cycle facilities, where the emphasis will be shifted from mitigation of accident consequences more towards prevention of accidents. In this context, four high level user requirements have been formulated for the safety of innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles. On this basis safety strategies for innovative reactor designs are highlighted in each of the five levels of defence in depth and specific requirements are discussed for the individual components of the fuel cycle. (authors)

  13. Predicting ICU hemodynamic instability using continuous multiparameter trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Hanqing; Eshelman, Larry; Chbat, Nicolas; Nielsen, Larry; Gross, Brian; Saeed, Mohammed

    2008-01-01

    Identifying hemodynamically unstable patients in a timely fashion in intensive care units (ICUs) is crucial because it can lead to earlier interventions and thus to potentially better patient outcomes. Current alert algorithms are typically limited to detecting dangerous conditions only after they have occurred and suffer from high false alert rates. Our objective was to predict hemodynamic instability at least two hours before a major clinical intervention (e.g., vasopressor administration), while maintaining a low false alert rate. From the MIMIC II database, containing ICU minute-by-minute heart rate (HR) and invasive arterial blood pressure (BP) monitoring trend data collected between 2001 and 2005, we identified 132 stable and 104 unstable patients that met our stability-instability criteria and had sufficient data points. We first derived additional physiological parameters of shock index, rate pressure product, heart rate variability, and two measures of trending based on HR and BP. Then we developed 220 statistical features and systematically selected a small set to use for classification. We applied multi-variable logistic regression modeling to do classification and implemented validation via bootstrapping. Area under receiver-operating curve (ROC) 0.83+/-0.03, sensitivity 0.75+/-0.06, and specificity 0.80+/-0.07; if the specificity is targeted at 0.90, then the sensitivity is 0.57+/-0.07. Based on our preliminary results, we conclude that the algorithms we developed using HR and BP trend data may provide a promising perspective toward reliable predictive alerts for hemodynamically unstable patients.

  14. Trends in Control Area of PLC Reliability and Safety Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juraj Zdansky

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Extension of the PLC application possibilities is closely related to increase of reliability and safety parameters. If the requirement of reliability and safety parameters will be suitable, the PLC could by implemented to specific applications such the safety-related processes control. The goal of this article is to show the way which producers are approaching to increase PLC`s reliability and safety parameters. The second goal is to analyze these parameters for range of present choice and describe the possibility how the reliability and safety parameters can be affected.

  15. ALWR safety approaches and trends. Implementation of passive safety features in the design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ignatiev, V.

    1995-11-01

    Reactor vendors world-wide are examining various advanced light water reactors (ALWR) options to reach utility goals. The amount of information available about each design varies essentially depending on its maturity. Some advanced reactor designs are the evolutionary results of combining old structures, systems and components in new ways, others use innovative solutions. A summary review is given for better understanding of new ALWR design trends and approaches in different countries and subsequent R and D activities. An attempt was made to describe and assess specific innovative and passive features implemented in the leading ALWR designs for further plant design safety improvements. The advantages and disadvantages of these innovations in obtaining reliable systems have been considered. Also, this report indicates the importance of uncertainties remaining and identifies the additional work needed. 51 refs, 27 figs, 7 tabs

  16. ALWR safety approaches and trends. Implementation of passive safety features in the design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ignatiev, V

    1995-11-01

    Reactor vendors world-wide are examining various advanced light water reactors (ALWR) options to reach utility goals. The amount of information available about each design varies essentially depending on its maturity. Some advanced reactor designs are the evolutionary results of combining old structures, systems and components in new ways, others use innovative solutions. A summary review is given for better understanding of new ALWR design trends and approaches in different countries and subsequent R and D activities. An attempt was made to describe and assess specific innovative and passive features implemented in the leading ALWR designs for further plant design safety improvements. The advantages and disadvantages of these innovations in obtaining reliable systems have been considered. Also, this report indicates the importance of uncertainties remaining and identifies the additional work needed. 51 refs, 27 figs, 7 tabs.

  17. A study of the international trend and comprehensive enhancement program on the Nuclear Power Plant safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Soon Hong; Cho, Nam Jin; Paek, Won Phil [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1990-12-15

    The objectives of this study are as follows : overview of the international trend related to the safety of Nuclear Power Plant(NPPs), study of the present status of NPP safety in Korea in aspects of design, construction and operation, suggestion of the comprehensive program to improve NPP safety in Korea. The results of this study can contribute to improve the safety of existing and future NPPs, and to establish the severe accident policy in Korea.

  18. A study of the international trend and comprehensive enhancement program on the Nuclear Power Plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Soon Hong; Cho, Nam Jin; Paek, Won Phil

    1990-12-01

    The objectives of this study are as follows : overview of the international trend related to the safety of Nuclear Power Plant(NPPs), study of the present status of NPP safety in Korea in aspects of design, construction and operation, suggestion of the comprehensive program to improve NPP safety in Korea. The results of this study can contribute to improve the safety of existing and future NPPs, and to establish the severe accident policy in Korea

  19. Certification of safety professionals : Emerging trends of internationalisation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hale, A.R.; Harvey, H.

    2012-01-01

    Professionalisation of safety began at a national level with the formation of national associations of safety staff working in industry and of government inspectors. It took its first steps towards internation-al harmonisation with attempts in the 1970s in Western Europe to arrive at agreement on

  20. Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Eric C. J.; Lago, Véronique; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Ling, Scott D.; Mundy, Craig N.

    2018-02-01

    Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures - marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania's east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania's eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993-2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data.

  1. Intelligent robot trends and predictions for the new millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Ernest L.; Mundhenk, Terrell N.

    1999-08-01

    An intelligent robot is a remarkably useful combination of a manipulator, sensors and controls. The current use of these machines in outer space, medicine, hazardous materials, defense applications and industry is being pursued with vigor but little funding. In factory automation such robotics machines can improve productivity, increase product quality and improve competitiveness. The computer and the robot have both been developed during recent times. The intelligent robot combines both technologies and requires a thorough understanding and knowledge of mechatronics. In honor of the new millennium, this paper will present a discussion of futuristic trends and predictions. However, in keeping with technical tradition, a new technique for 'Follow the Leader' will also be presented in the hope of it becoming a new, useful and non-obvious technique.

  2. Trends in safety pharmacology: posters presented at the annual meetings of the Safety Pharmacology Society 2001-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redfern, William S; Valentin, Jean-Pierre

    2011-01-01

    The inaugural meeting of the Safety Pharmacology Society (SPS) was in 2001, soon after ICH S7A had been adopted. The 10th anniversary is an appropriate milestone at which to analyse trends in the science and themes of safety pharmacology, as reflected in posters presented at the annual meetings. The source information was the poster abstract booklets from each of the first ten annual meetings. The number of posters rose steadily from 34 in 2001 to 201 in 2010. The proportion of posters containing in vitro data has remained constant throughout the decade at ~30%. In terms of organ functions, themes relating to the cardiovascular system (CVS) have always generated the majority of posters, remaining above 60% of the total for the last 9years. The dominant theme has been around 'QT liability'. This peaked in 2003 at 68% of all posters presented, around the time of the ICHS7B discussions, and has remained above 30% thereafter. Apart from 2003 (dipping to 4%), CNS-related posters have remained steady at 11-17% throughout the decade. Respiratory-related posters have remained at 5-8% over the last 5years. Gastrointestinal (GI)-related posters have contributed 2-6% throughout the decade, and renal-related posters 1-3%. Posters on combined organ assessments have appeared in recent years. The relative emphasis on the different organ functions is broadly proportional to the causes of candidate drug attrition preclinically, whereas both CNS and GI are under-represented when considering their contribution to significant adverse effects during clinical development. Trends are either regulatory-driven (e.g. increase in posters on abuse-dependence liability since EMEA/CHMP/SWP/94227/2004), technology-driven (e.g. automated hERG assay; left ventricular function; non-invasive CVS measurements; stem cells, etc.), or relate to the predictive ability of safety pharmacology data (e.g. clinical translation initiatives; concordance between in vitro and in vivo preclinical data; integrated

  3. Highway Safety: Trends in Highway Fatalities 1975-1987

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-03-01

    pattern of fatalities as the overall trend. This pattern applies to many of the general fatality statis- tics we present, and, in all cases, it serves as a...Fatalities 1975-87 Appemfx IV Vehicle-Related Statistics Figure IV.17: Vehicle Fatalities by Direction of Principal Impacto NNNumber of PddUlsils lwam 0 1975

  4. Lung cancer mortality in European women: trends and predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosetti, Cristina; Malvezzi, Matteo; Rosso, Tiziana; Bertuccio, Paola; Gallus, Silvano; Chatenoud, Liliane; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo

    2012-12-01

    Female lung cancer mortality increased by 50% between the mid 1960s and the early 2000s in the European Union (EU). To monitor the current lung cancer epidemic in European women, we analyzed mortality trends in 33 European countries between 1970 and 2009 and estimated rates for the year 2015 using data from the World Health Organization. Female lung cancer mortality has been increasing up to recent calendar years in most European countries, with the exceptions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with relatively low rates, and the UK, Iceland and Ireland, where high rates were reached in mid/late 1990s to leveled off thereafter. In the EU, female lung cancer mortality rates rose over the last decade from 11.3 to 12.7/100,000 (+2.3% per year) at all ages and from 18.6 to 21.5/100,000 (+3.0% per year) in middle-age. A further increase is predicted, to reach 14/100,000 women in 2015. Lung cancer mortality trends have been more favorable over the last decade in young women (20-44 years), particularly in the UK and other former high-risk countries from northern and central/eastern Europe, but also in France, Italy, and Spain where mortality in young women has been increasing up to the early 2000s. In the EU as a whole, mortality at age 20-44 years decreased from 1.6 to 1.4/100,000 (-2.2% per year). Although the female lung cancer epidemic in Europe is still expanding, the epidemic may be controlled through the implementation of effective anti-tobacco measures, and it will probably never reach the top US rates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting and preventing organizational failure: learning, stability and safety culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, R.B.

    2009-01-01

    The physical definition of 'safety culture' is the creation of an organizational and operational structure that places unending emphasis on safety at every level. We propose and prefer the use of the term and the objective of sustaining a 'Learning Environment', where mistakes, outcomes and errors are used as learning vehicles to improve, and we can now define why that is true. Therefore we can manage and quantify safety effectively tracking and analyzing outcomes, using the trends to guide our needed organizational behaviors. (author)

  6. Fusion safety regulations in the United States: Progress and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeLooper, J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper explores the issue of regulations as they apply to current and future fusion experimental machines. It addresses fusion regulatory issues, current regulations used for fusion, the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor experience with regulations, and future regulations to achieve fusion's safety and environmental potential

  7. Mathematical models for prediction of safety factors for a simply ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    From the results obtained, mathematical prediction models were developed using a least square regression analysis for bending, shear and deflection modes of failure considered in the study. The results showed that the safety factors for material, dead and live load are not unique, but they are influenced by safety index ...

  8. Towards predictive cardiovascular safety : a systems pharmacology approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snelder, Nelleke

    2014-01-01

    Cardiovascular safety issues related to changes in blood pressure, arise frequently in drug development. In the thesis “Towards predictive cardiovascular safety – a systems pharmacology approach”, a system-specific model is described to quantify drug effects on the interrelationship between mean

  9. Prediction degradation trend of nuclear equipment based on GM (1, 1)-Markov chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Liming; Zhao Xinwen; Cai Qi; Wu Guangjiang

    2010-01-01

    The degradation trend prediction results are important references for nuclear equipment in-service inspection and maintenance plan. But it is difficult to predict the nuclear equipment degradation trend accurately by the traditional statistical probability due to the small samples, lack of degradation data and the wavy degradation locus. Therefore, a method of equipment degradation trend prediction based on GM (1, l)-Markov chain was proposed in this paper. The method which makes use of the advantages of both GM (1, 1) method and Markov chain could improve the prediction precision of nuclear equipment degradation trend. The paper collected degradation data as samples and accurately predicted the degradation trend of canned motor pump. Compared with the prediction results by GM (1, 1) method, the prediction precision by GM (1, l)-Markov chain is more accurate. (authors)

  10. Trends in HFE Methods and Tools and Their Applicability to Safety Reviews

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Hara, J.M.; Plott, C.; Milanski, J.; Ronan, A.; Scheff, S.; Laux, L.; and Bzostek, J.

    2009-09-30

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) conducts human factors engineering (HFE) safety reviews of applicant submittals for new plants and for changes to existing plants. The reviews include the evaluation of the methods and tools (M&T) used by applicants as part of their HFE program. The technology used to perform HFE activities has been rapidly evolving, resulting in a whole new generation of HFE M&Ts. The objectives of this research were to identify the current trends in HFE methods and tools, determine their applicability to NRC safety reviews, and identify topics for which the NRC may need additional guidance to support the NRC's safety reviews. We conducted a survey that identified over 100 new HFE M&Ts. The M&Ts were assessed to identify general trends. Seven trends were identified: Computer Applications for Performing Traditional Analyses, Computer-Aided Design, Integration of HFE Methods and Tools, Rapid Development Engineering, Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. We assessed each trend to determine its applicability to the NRC's review by considering (1) whether the nuclear industry is making use of M&Ts for each trend, and (2) whether M&Ts reflecting the trend can be reviewed using the current design review guidance. We concluded that M&T trends that are applicable to the commercial nuclear industry and are expected to impact safety reviews may be considered for review guidance development. Three trends fell into this category: Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. The other trends do not need to be addressed at this time.

  11. Trends in HFE Methods and Tools and Their Applicability to Safety Reviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, J.M.; Plott, C.; Milanski, J.; Ronan, A.; Scheff, S.; Laux, L.; Bzostek, J.

    2009-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) conducts human factors engineering (HFE) safety reviews of applicant submittals for new plants and for changes to existing plants. The reviews include the evaluation of the methods and tools (M and T) used by applicants as part of their HFE program. The technology used to perform HFE activities has been rapidly evolving, resulting in a whole new generation of HFE M and Ts. The objectives of this research were to identify the current trends in HFE methods and tools, determine their applicability to NRC safety reviews, and identify topics for which the NRC may need additional guidance to support the NRC's safety reviews. We conducted a survey that identified over 100 new HFE M and Ts. The M and Ts were assessed to identify general trends. Seven trends were identified: Computer Applications for Performing Traditional Analyses, Computer-Aided Design, Integration of HFE Methods and Tools, Rapid Development Engineering, Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. We assessed each trend to determine its applicability to the NRC's review by considering (1) whether the nuclear industry is making use of M and Ts for each trend, and (2) whether M and Ts reflecting the trend can be reviewed using the current design review guidance. We concluded that M and T trends that are applicable to the commercial nuclear industry and are expected to impact safety reviews may be considered for review guidance development. Three trends fell into this category: Analysis of Cognitive Tasks, Use of Virtual Environments and Visualizations, and Application of Human Performance Models. The other trends do not need to be addressed at this time.

  12. Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

    2017-12-01

    Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

  13. ISSUES AND RECENT TRENDS IN VEHICLE SAFETY COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadayuki TSUGAWA

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper surveys the research on the applications of inter-vehicle communications, the issues of the deployment and technology, and the current status of inter-vehicle communications projects in Europe, the United States and Japan. The inter-vehicle communications, defined here as communications between on-board ITS computers, improve road traffic safety and efficiency by expanding the horizon of the drivers and on-board sensors. One of the earliest studies on inter-vehicle communications began in Japan in the early 1980s. The inter-vehicle communications play an essential role in automated platooning and cooperative driving systems developed since the 1990's by enabling vehicles to obtain data that would be difficult or impossible to measure with on-board sensors. During these years, interest in applications for inter-vehicle communications increased in the EU, the US and Japan, resulting in many national vehicle safety communications projects such as CarTALK2000 in the EU and VSCC in the US. The technological issues include protocol and communications media. Experiments employ various kinds of protocols and typically use infrared, microwave or millimeter wave media. The situation is ready for standardization. The deployment strategy is another issue. To be feasible, deployment should begin with multiple rather than single services that would work even at a low penetration rate of the communication equipment. In addition, non-technological, legal and institutional issues remained unsolved. Although inter-vehicle communications involve many issues, such applications should be promoted because they will lead to safer and more efficient automobile traffic.

  14. The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

    2014-02-01

    To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

  15. Trend analysis of incidents involving setpoint drift in safety or safety/relief valves at U.S. LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    2008-01-01

    Since the beginning of the 1980's, in the United States, there have been many licensee event reports (LERs) involving setpoint drift in safety or safety/relief valves. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued a lot of generic communications on this issue and the industry has made efforts to resolve the issue. However, the NRC staff recently highlighted that over 70 LERs involved instances where safety or safety/relief valves failed to meet the allowed setpoint tolerance from 2001 through August 2006. In the present study, we analyzed the U.S. experience with setpoint drift in safety/relief valves (SRVs) at BWRs, pressurizer safety valves (PSVs), and main steam safety valves (MSSVs) at PWRs by reviewing approximately 90 LERs from 2000 to 2006 and examined the trend focusing on causes and setpoint deviation ranges. This study indicates that for SRVs and MSSVs, disc-seat bonding is a dominant cause of the setpoint drifting high and has a tendency to result in a relatively large deviation of the setpoint. This means that disc-seat bonding might be a safety concern from the view point of overpressure protection. For PSVs, the deviation of setpoints is generally small, although its causes are not specified in many instances. (author)

  16. Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Critchley, O.H.

    1976-01-01

    Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

  17. Risk-Based Predictive Maintenance for Safety-Critical Systems by Using Probabilistic Inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based maintenance (RBM aims to improve maintenance planning and decision making by reducing the probability and consequences of failure of equipment. A new predictive maintenance strategy that integrates dynamic evolution model and risk assessment is proposed which can be used to calculate the optimal maintenance time with minimal cost and safety constraints. The dynamic evolution model provides qualified risks by using probabilistic inference with bucket elimination and gives the prospective degradation trend of a complex system. Based on the degradation trend, an optimal maintenance time can be determined by minimizing the expected maintenance cost per time unit. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated and demonstrated by a collision accident of high-speed trains with obstacles in the presence of safety and cost constrains.

  18. Current status and new trends in the methodology of safety assessment for near surface disposal facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilie, Petre; Didita, Liana; Danchiv, Alexandru

    2008-01-01

    The main goal of this paper is to present the status of the safety assessment methodology at the end of IAEA CRP 'Application of Safety Assessment Methodology for Near-Surface Radioactive Waste Disposal Facilities (ASAM)', and the new trends outlined at the launch of the follow-up project 'Practical Implementation of Safety Assessment Methodologies in a Context of Safety Case of Near-Surface Facilities (PRISM)'. Over the duration of the ASAM project, the ISAM methodology was confirmed as providing a good framework for conducting safety assessment calculations. In contrast, ASAM project identified the limitations of the ISAM methodology as currently formulated. The major limitations are situated in the area of the use of safety assessment for informing practical decisions about alternative waste and risk management strategies for real disposal sites. As a result of the limitation of the ISAM methodology, the PRISM project is established as an extension of the ISAM and ASAM projects. Based on the outcomes of the ASAM project, the main objective of the PRISM project are: 1 - to develop an overview of what constitutes an adequate safety case and safety assessment with a view to supporting decision making processes; 2 - to provide practical illustrations of how the safety assessment methodology could be used for addressing some specific issues arising from the ASAM project and national cases; 3 - to support harmonization with the IAEA's international safety standards. (authors)

  19. Nuclear Safety R and D Programs and trend in the U. S. Utility Industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong Hyun

    1992-01-01

    First of all, the deterministic approach to safety analysis, which had dominated safety research in the earlier years, has given much ground to probabilistic approach. Secondly, human factors analysis has become an important part of safety research. Third, safety research relevant to reliability, or safety combined with reliability, are gradually taking place of purely safety-oriented or stand-alone safety research. More and more nuclear utilities in the U. S. are integrating safety with reliability. This evolution is in part due to the successful completion of major safety testing and analyses of deterministic nature, and partially due to the utility industry's desire to harvest synergistic nature, and partially due to the utility industry's desire to harvest synergistic results by combining safety with reliability, as the utility industry is more and more concerned about reducing operation and maintenance costs by enhancing reliability while maintaining plant safety. Nuclear safety is a complex and comprehensive concept, defying a simple categorization or interpretation. Thus, research and development in nuclear safety is necessarily diverse, and the program areas and trend presented in this paper are not meant to be all inclusive. For instance, there are some other active areas that were not mentioned, such as seismic risk assessment program and others. Nuclear safety research and development activities have undergone a perceptible shift of emphasis in recent years. They have become more focused and product-oriented. Also, except for the severe accident analysis, the emphasis on prevention and mitigation of accident, rather than analyzing the consequences of accident, is very much in evidence; that is, reliability-based technologies using PIRA methodology, and upgrading of instrumentation and control technologies are in the main stream of activities

  20. Trending of low level events and near misses to enhance safety performance in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-11-01

    The IAEA Safety Fundamentals publication, Safety of Nuclear Installations, Safety Series No. 110, states the need for operating organizations to establish a programme for the collection and analysis of operating experience in nuclear power plants. Such a programme ensures that operating experience is analysed, events important to safety are reviewed in depth, and lessons learned are disseminated to the staff of the organization and to relevant national and international organizations. As a result of the effort to enhance safety in operating organizations, incidents are progressively decreasing in number and significance. This means that in accordance with international reporting requirements the amount of collected data becomes less sufficient to draw meaningful statistical conclusions. This is where the collection and trend analysis of low level events and near misses can prove to be very useful. These trends can show which of the safety barriers are weak or failing more frequently. Evaluation and trending of low level events and near misses will help to prevent major incidents because latent weaknesses have been identified and corrective actions taken to prevent recurrence. This leads to improved safety and production. Low level events and near misses, which may reach several thousand per reactor operating year, need to be treated by the organizations as learning opportunities. A system for capturing these low level events and near misses truly needs to be an organization-wide system in which all levels of the organization, including contractors, participate. It is desirable that the overall operational experience feedback (OEF) process should integrate the lessons learned and the associated data from significant events with those of lower level events and near misses. To be able to effectively implement a process dealing with low level events and near misses, it is necessary that the organization have a well established OEF process for significant events

  1. A systematic review of the safety climate intervention literature: Past trends and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jin; Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Cheung, Janelle H; Chen, Zhuo; Shaw, William S

    2018-04-26

    Safety climate represents the meaningfulness of safety and how safety is valued in an organization. The contributions of safety climate to organizational safety have been well documented. There is a dearth of empirical research, however, on specific safety climate interventions and their effectiveness. The present study aims at examining the trend of safety climate interventions and offering compiled information for designing and implementing evidence-based safety climate interventions. Our literature search yielded 384 titles that were inspected by three examiners. Using a stepwise process that allowed for assessment of interobserver agreement, 19 full articles were selected and reviewed. Results showed that 10 out of the 19 articles (52.6%) were based on a quasi-experimental pre- and postintervention design, whereas 42.1% (n = 8) studies were based on a mixed-design approach (including both between- and within-subject design). All interventions in these 19 studies involved either safety-/health-related communication or education/training. Improvement of safety leadership was also a common component of safety climate interventions. According to the socio-technical systems classification of intervention strategies, all studies were categorized as interventions focusing on improving organizational and managerial structure as well as the personnel subsystem; four of them also aimed at improving technological aspects of work, and five of them aimed at improving the physical work subsystem. In general, a vast majority of the studies (89.5%, n = 17) showed a statistically significant improvement in safety climate across their organizations postintervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Validation of risk-based performance indicators: Safety system function trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boccio, J.L.; Vesely, W.E.; Azarm, M.A.; Carbonaro, J.F.; Usher, J.L.; Oden, N.

    1989-10-01

    This report describes and applies a process for validating a model for a risk-based performance indicator. The purpose of the risk-based indicator evaluated, Safety System Function Trend (SSFT), is to monitor the unavailability of selected safety systems. Interim validation of this indicator is based on three aspects: a theoretical basis, an empirical basis relying on statistical correlations, and case studies employing 25 plant years of historical data collected from five plants for a number of safety systems. Results using the SSFT model are encouraging. Application of the model through case studies dealing with the performance of important safety systems shows that statistically significant trends in, and levels of, system performance can be discerned which thereby can provide leading indications of degrading and/or improving performances. Methods for developing system performance tolerance bounds are discussed and applied to aid in the interpretation of the trends in this risk-based indicator. Some additional characteristics of the SSFT indicator, learned through the data-collection efforts and subsequent data analyses performed, are also discussed. The usefulness and practicality of other data sources for validation purposes are explored. Further validation of this indicator is noted. Also, additional research is underway in developing a more detailed estimator of system unavailability. 9 refs., 18 figs., 5 tabs

  3. Predicting soil acidification trends at Plynlimon using the SAFE model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Reynolds

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available The SAFE model has been applied to an acid grassland site, located on base-poor stagnopodzol soils derived from Lower Palaeozoic greywackes. The model predicts that acidification of the soil has occurred in response to increased acid deposition following the industrial revolution. Limited recovery is predicted following the decline in sulphur deposition during the mid to late 1970s. Reducing excess sulphur and NOx deposition in 1998 to 40% and 70% of 1980 levels results in further recovery but soil chemical conditions (base saturation, soil water pH and ANC do not return to values predicted in pre-industrial times. The SAFE model predicts that critical loads (expressed in terms of the (Ca+Mg+K:Alcrit ratio for six vegetation species found in acid grassland communities are not exceeded despite the increase in deposited acidity following the industrial revolution. The relative growth response of selected vegetation species characteristic of acid grassland swards has been predicted using a damage function linking growth to soil solution base cation to aluminium ratio. The results show that very small growth reductions can be expected for 'acid tolerant' plants growing in acid upland soils. For more sensitive species such as Holcus lanatus, SAFE predicts that growth would have been reduced by about 20% between 1951 and 1983, when acid inputs were greatest. Recovery to c. 90% of normal growth (under laboratory conditions is predicted as acidic inputs decline.

  4. Trends in predicted chemoselectivity of cytochrome P450 oxidation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rydberg, Patrik; Lonsdale, Richard; Harvey, Jeremy N

    2014-01-01

    to a double bond has been performed using B3LYP and B3LYP-D3. Relevant experimental data on oxidation selectivity has also been assessed. The results show that density functional theory, when using B3LYP-D3, does well in reproducing the experimental trends. Considering that the comparison involves chemical...... steps with quite different features this is remarkable. We also find that B3LYP consistently underestimates the hydrogen abstraction barriers relative to the epoxidation barriers, and that including a dispersion correction reduces this problem....

  5. Caffeine-based food supplements and beverages: Trends of consumption for performance purposes and safety concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessada, Sílvia M F; Alves, Rita C; Oliveira, M Beatriz P P

    2018-07-01

    Nowadays, daily food supplementation regarding the improvement of physical and mental performance is a growing trend in sport practitioners, young students and active people. Food supplements are foodstuffs, labeled under food law and not obliged to safety assessments before their commercialization. Several products are commercialized claiming ergogenic effects as marketing strategies. Caffeine is often one of their main ingredients, as it increases both physical performance and concentration. This manuscript presents a general overview of the current caffeine-based food supplements and energy drinks available in the Portuguese market, as well as the consuming trends regarding their ergogenic effects, performance purposes, and active ingredients. Product claims, recommended daily intakes, caffeine pharmacology, and safety concerns aspects are also discussed aspects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Recent Trends In The Methods Of Safety Assessment Of Rad Waste Treatment And Disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahmoud, N.S.

    2012-01-01

    Radioactive waste management system involves a huge variety of processes and activities. This includes; collection and segregation, pretreatment, treatment, conditioning, storage and finally disposal. To assure the safety of the different facility of each step in the waste management system, the operator should prepare a safety analysis report to be assessed by the national regulatory body. The content of the safety analysis report must include all data about the site, facility design, operational phase, waste materials, and safety assessment methodologies. Safety assessment methodologies are iterative processes involving site-specific, prospective modeling evaluations of the pre-operational, operational, and post-closure time in case of disposal facilities. The safety assessment focuses primarily on a decision about compliance with performance objectives, rather than the much more difficult problem of predicting actual radiological impacts on the public at far future times. The recent organization processes of the safety assessment are improved by the ISAM working group from IAEA for waste disposal site. These safety assessment methodologies have been modified within SADRWMS IAEA project for the establishment of safety methodologies for the pre-disposal facilities (treatment and storage facilities) and the disposal site.

  7. Analysing Twitter and web queries for flu trend prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, José Carlos; Matos, Sérgio

    2014-05-07

    Social media platforms encourage people to share diverse aspects of their daily life. Among these, shared health related information might be used to infer health status and incidence rates for specific conditions or symptoms. In this work, we present an infodemiology study that evaluates the use of Twitter messages and search engine query logs to estimate and predict the incidence rate of influenza like illness in Portugal. Based on a manually classified dataset of 2704 tweets from Portugal, we selected a set of 650 textual features to train a Naïve Bayes classifier to identify tweets mentioning flu or flu-like illness or symptoms. We obtained a precision of 0.78 and an F-measure of 0.83, based on cross validation over the complete annotated set. Furthermore, we trained a multiple linear regression model to estimate the health-monitoring data from the Influenzanet project, using as predictors the relative frequencies obtained from the tweet classification results and from query logs, and achieved a correlation ratio of 0.89 (puser-generated content have mostly focused on the english language. Our results further validate those studies and show that by changing the initial steps of data preprocessing and feature extraction and selection, the proposed approaches can be adapted to other languages. Additionally, we investigated whether the predictive model created can be applied to data from the subsequent flu season. In this case, although the prediction result was good, an initial phase to adapt the regression model could be necessary to achieve more robust results.

  8. Large urban fire environment: trends and model city predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, D.A.; Small, R.D.

    1983-01-01

    The urban fire environment that would result from a megaton-yield nuclear weapon burst is considered. The dependence of temperatures and velocities on fire size, burning intensity, turbulence, and radiation is explored, and specific calculations for three model urban areas are presented. In all cases, high velocity fire winds are predicted. The model-city results show the influence of building density and urban sprawl on the fire environment. Additional calculations consider large-area fires with the burning intensity reduced in a blast-damaged urban center

  9. Trends in youth internet victimization: findings from three youth internet safety surveys 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lisa M; Mitchell, Kimberly J; Finkelhor, David

    2012-02-01

    The purpose of this research was to explore the trends in youth reports of unwanted online sexual solicitation, harassment, and exposure to pornography over time. The study was based on three separate cross-sectional national telephone surveys of approximately 1,500 youth Internet users, aged 10 through 17 years. Data were collected in 2000, 2005, and 2010. Nine percent of youth reported an unwanted sexual solicitation in 2010. This continued the decline in unwanted sexual solicitations that occurred between 2000 (19%) and 2005 (13%), resulting in a total 50% decrease between 2000 and 2010. Twenty-three percent of youth reported an unwanted exposure to pornography, a decline from 34% in 2005, following an increase between 2000 and 2005 (25% to 34%). However, marking the only trend to show an increase over the past 5 years, 11% of youth reported an online harassment experience, which was an increase from 9% in 2005, and 6% in 2000. Some differences in these trends were noted for subgroups of youth across age, gender, and race. The trends in unwanted experiences online over the past decade identified by three Youth Internet Safety Surveys may contradict impressions that the general population, professionals, and the media have about what is happening. Trends provide evidence for some optimism that protective adaptations to the online environment have been successful; however, online harassment appears to be increasing for youth, particularly girls, and may require additional mobilization. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Safety-critical Java on a time-predictable processor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsholm, Stephan E.; Schoeberl, Martin; Puffitsch, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    For real-time systems the whole execution stack needs to be time-predictable and analyzable for the worst-case execution time (WCET). This paper presents a time-predictable platform for safety-critical Java. The platform consists of (1) the Patmos processor, which is a time-predictable processor......; (2) a C compiler for Patmos with support for WCET analysis; (3) the HVM, which is a Java-to-C compiler; (4) the HVM-SCJ implementation which supports SCJ Level 0, 1, and 2 (for both single and multicore platforms); and (5) a WCET analysis tool. We show that real-time Java programs translated to C...... and compiled to a Patmos binary can be analyzed by the AbsInt aiT WCET analysis tool. To the best of our knowledge the presented system is the second WCET analyzable real-time Java system; and the first one on top of a RISC processor....

  11. Nuclear Installation Safety: General Observations and Trends from IAEA Peer Reviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rzentkowski, G.

    2016-01-01

    The Safety Review Services (SRSs) for nuclear installations address the needs of Member States at all stages of installations’ lifecycle. SRSs are based on the IAEA Safety Standards and are provided on Member States’ request to peer review national regulatory frameworks and safety provisions for nuclear installations. They result in recommendations and suggestions to improve national regulations and operational safety, and serve to exert peer pressure to ensure that that every Member State with nuclear installations recognizes its safety responsibility and the need to comply with the IAEA Safety Standards. This presentation provides an overview of SRSs for Nuclear Installations, including their structure and main subject areas. The presentation also summarizes general findings and trends which clearly demonstrate that there is continuous improvement in regulation of nuclear installations and in safety of their operation. Nevertheless, there is the need to further enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of SRSs through review of the overall governance model and service delivery to better serve the needs of Member States. The presentation points out some areas of improvements which have already been implemented or are being considered for implementation. Just as important, SRSs are conducted by teams of experts from around the world to strengthening international cooperation, ensure diversity and impartiality, and improve the overall quality of the safety review being conducted. The review team members are also provided with the opportunity for mutual learning and sharing good practices among themselves and with the Member State undergoing the review. As a result, SRAs play an important role in a quest to harmonize regulatory requirements and approaches globally. (author)

  12. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  13. AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

  14. Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Evans, Joni K.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

    2014-01-01

    Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

  15. Evaluating and Predicting Patient Safety for Medical Devices With Integral Information Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    323 Evaluating and Predicting Patient Safety for Medical Devices with Integral Information Technology Jiajie Zhang, Vimla L. Patel, Todd R...errors are due to inappropriate designs for user interactions, rather than mechanical failures. Evaluating and predicting patient safety in medical ...the users on the identified trouble spots in the devices. We developed two methods for evaluating and predicting patient safety in medical devices

  16. Bias of genetic trend of genomic predictions based on both real dairy cattle and simulated data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Peipei; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Nielsen, Ulrik Sander

    This study investigated the phenomenon of bias in the trend of genomic predictions and attempted to find the reason and solution for this bias. The data used in this study include Danish Jersey data and simulation data. In Jersey data, the bias was reduced when cows were included in the reference...... population. In simulated data, there was no bias when the test animals were unselected cows. When the G matrix was derived from genotypes of causal genes, the bias was reduced. The results suggest that the main reasons for causing the bias of the prediction trends are the selection of bulls and bull dams...

  17. The structure and emerging trends of construction safety management research: a bibliometric review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Huakang; Zhang, Shoujian; Su, Yikun

    2018-03-29

    Recently, construction safety management (CSM) practices and systems have become important topics for stakeholders to take care of human resources. However, few studies have attempted to map the global research on CSM. A comprehensive bibliometric review was conducted in this study based on multiple methods. In total, 1172 CSM-related papers from the Web of Science Core Collection database were examined. The analyses focused on publication year, country-institute, publication source, author and research topics. The results indicated that the USA, China, Australia and the UK took leading positions in CSM research. Two branches of journals were identified, namely the branch of engineering science and that of safety science and social science. Additionally, seven themes together with 28 specific topics were detected to allow researchers to track the main structure and temporal evolution of CSM research. Finally, the main research trends and potential research directions were discussed to guide the future research.

  18. Trends in Health Information Technology Safety: From Technology-Induced Errors to Current Approaches for Ensuring Technology Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Health information technology (HIT) research findings suggested that new healthcare technologies could reduce some types of medical errors while at the same time introducing classes of medical errors (i.e., technology-induced errors). Technology-induced errors have their origins in HIT, and/or HIT contribute to their occurrence. The objective of this paper is to review current trends in the published literature on HIT safety. Methods A review and synthesis of the medical and life sciences literature focusing on the area of technology-induced error was conducted. Results There were four main trends in the literature on technology-induced error. The following areas were addressed in the literature: definitions of technology-induced errors; models, frameworks and evidence for understanding how technology-induced errors occur; a discussion of monitoring; and methods for preventing and learning about technology-induced errors. Conclusions The literature focusing on technology-induced errors continues to grow. Research has focused on the defining what an error is, models and frameworks used to understand these new types of errors, monitoring of such errors and methods that can be used to prevent these errors. More research will be needed to better understand and mitigate these types of errors. PMID:23882411

  19. New trends in pile safety instrumentation; Les tendances nouvelles dans l'instrumentation de securite des piles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furet, J.

    1961-04-19

    This report addresses the protection of nuclear piles against damages due to operation incidents. The author discusses the current trends in the philosophy of safety of atomic power piles, identifies the parameters which define safety systems, presents tests to be performed on safety chains, comments the relationship between safety and the decrease of the number of pile inadvertent shutdowns, discusses the issues of instrument failures and chain multiplicity, comments the possible improvement of the operation of elements which build up safety chains (design simplification, development of semiconductors, replacement of electromechanical relays by static relays), the role of safety logical computers and the development of automatics in pile safety, presents automatic control as a safety factor (example of automatic start-up), and finally comments the use of fuses.

  20. Development and evaluation of multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends in multiple domains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Attema, T.; Maanen, P.P. van; Meeuwissen, E.

    2015-01-01

    This paper concerns multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends. We use a step-wise approach to develop a novel agent-based model with the following properties: (1) it uses individual behavior parameters for a set of Twitter users and (2) it uses a retweet graph to model the underlying social

  1. Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jirong

    2017-12-01

    The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

  2. COMPARISON OF TREND PROJECTION METHODS AND BACKPROPAGATION PROJECTIONS METHODS TREND IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS DIED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN TIMOR TENGAH REGENCY, NUSA TENGGARA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksius Madu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to predict the number of traffic accident victims who died in Timor Tengah Regency with Trend Projection method and Backpropagation method, and compare the two methods based on the degree of guilt and predict the number traffic accident victims in the Timor Tengah Regency for the coming year. This research was conducted in Timor Tengah Regency where data used in this study was obtained from Police Unit in Timor Tengah Regency. The data is on the number of traffic accidents in Timor Tengah Regency from 2000 – 2013, which is obtained by a quantitative analysis with Trend Projection and Backpropagation method. The results of the data analysis predicting the number of traffic accidents victims using Trend Projection method obtained the best model which is the quadratic trend model with equation Yk = 39.786 + (3.297 X + (0.13 X2. Whereas by using back propagation method, it is obtained the optimum network that consists of 2 inputs, 3 hidden screens, and 1 output. Based on the error rates obtained, Back propagation method is better than the Trend Projection method which means that the predicting accuracy with Back propagation method is the best method to predict the number of traffic accidents victims in Timor Tengah Regency. Thus obtained predicting the numbers of traffic accident victims for the next 5 years (Years 2014-2018 respectively - are 106 person, 115 person, 115 person, 119 person and 120 person.   Keywords: Trend Projection, Back propagation, Predicting.

  3. State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Predicting temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spears, D Ross; McNeil, Carrie; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Oyinloye, Oluremi; Whitehurst, Vanessa; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy; Campbell, Morris; Meechan, Paul

    2014-06-01

    This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absences trends due to all causes (total absenteeism) among employees at a federal agency. The objective is to determine how leave trends vary within the year, and determine whether trends are predictable. Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of total absence. Trends over a 10-year period followed predictable and regular patterns during a given year that correspond to major holiday periods. Temporal trends in leave among small, medium, and large facilities compared favorably with the agency as a whole. Temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for an organization can be determined using its attendance system. The ability to predict employee absenteeism rates can be extremely helpful for management in optimizing business performance and ensuring that an organization meets its mission.

  5. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montri Inthachot

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

  6. Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span. PMID:27974883

  7. Occupational safety and health in construction: a review of applications and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez Sánchez, Fabián Alberto; Carvajal Peláez, Gloria Isabel; Catalá Alís, Joaquín

    2017-06-08

    Due to the high number of accidents that occur in construction and the consequences this has for workers, organizations, society and countries, occupational safety and health (OSH) has become a very important issue for stakeholders to take care of the human resource. For this reason, and in order to know how OSH research in the construction sector has evolved over time, this article-in which articles published in English were studied-presents an analysis of research conducted from 1930 to 2016. The classification of documents was carried out following the Occupational Safety and Health Cycle which is composed of five steps: regulation, education and training, risk assessment, risk prevention, and accident analysis. With the help of tree diagrams we show that evolution takes place. In addition, risk assessment, risk prevention, and accident analysis were the research topics with the highest number of papers. The main objective of the study was to contribute to knowledge of the subject, showing trends through an exploratory study that may serve as a starting point for further research.

  8. Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Looney, Robert

    2008-01-01

    The Milken Institute Review The overwhelming defeat of President Pervez Musharraf ’s party in parliamentary elections earlier this year was no surprise, inside Pakistan or out. But explanations for his thumping at the polls vary, and how one interprets the return to democracy matters a lot in predicting how this politically unstable, ethnically divided, nuclear-armed country will react to continuing stresses.

  9. Prediction of protein post-translational modifications: main trends and methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, B. N.; Veselovsky, A. V.; Poroikov, V. V.

    2014-02-01

    The review summarizes main trends in the development of methods for the prediction of protein post-translational modifications (PTMs) by considering the three most common types of PTMs — phosphorylation, acetylation and glycosylation. Considerable attention is given to general characteristics of regulatory interactions associated with PTMs. Different approaches to the prediction of PTMs are analyzed. Most of the methods are based only on the analysis of the neighbouring environment of modification sites. The related software is characterized by relatively low accuracy of PTM predictions, which may be due both to the incompleteness of training data and the features of PTM regulation. Advantages and limitations of the phylogenetic approach are considered. The prediction of PTMs using data on regulatory interactions, including the modular organization of interacting proteins, is a promising field, provided that a more carefully selected training data will be used. The bibliography includes 145 references.

  10. mathematical models for prediction of safety factors for a simply

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    Keywords: reliability, code calibration, load factor, safety factor, design, steel beam. 1. INTRODUCTION ... safety factors for the design of a simply supported steel beam using regression .... 5 design criteria for a solid timber portal frame.

  11. Trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawyer, L.C.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the oil industry has been through major changes in the past 10 years. We have seen an activity high in the early 1980s, which was stimulated by oil price predictions that went as high as $70/bbl. By 1985 we saw oil prices plunge to $8/bbl, causing numerous reorganizations and mergers. Today we find ourselves in a business environment in which large oil companies are reducing their explorative budgets in the mature basins of the U.S. and Canada in favor of more-attractive opportunities in frontier plays, usually overseas. These same companies are taking a hard look at their existing fields with the objective of increasing operating efficiency by sales, trades, and purchases. Nonperforming properties are sold or exchanged for properties that are within the supported infrastructure. Before a property can be considered for divestment, it must be evaluated on the basis of current reserves and potential for additional reserves. This process of restructuring producing properties is often referred to as property enhancement. The result of property enhancement is the identification of core producing properties. Resources and efforts are then focused on the core properties to maximize production and reserves. This is today's business environment. Our challenge is to provide value-added technology that will support exploration and production business objectives. Expenditures for technology should be treated like any other expenditures, with calculations of expected payouts and anticipated rates of return. An evaluation of risk should also be made. In other words, solid economic justification is required. This justification is particularly true in production, where expenditures and results are more closely coupled

  12. Failure trend analysis for safety related components of Korean standard NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sun Yeong; Han, Sang Hoon

    2005-01-01

    The component reliability data of Korean NPP that reflects the plant specific characteristics is required necessarily for PSA of Korean nuclear power plants. We have performed a project to develop the component reliability database (KIND, Korea Integrated Nuclear Reliability Database) and S/W for database management and component reliability analysis. Based on the system, we have collected the component operation data and failure/repair data during from plant operation date to 2002 for YGN 3, 4 and UCN 3, 4 plants. Recently, we provided the component failure rate data for UCN 3, 4 standard PSA model from the KIND. We evaluated the components that have high-ranking failure rates with the component reliability data from plant operation date to 1998 and 2000 for YGN 3,4 and UCN 3, 4 respectively. We also identified their failure mode that occurred frequently. In this study, we analyze the component failure trend and perform site comparison based on the generic data by using the component reliability data which is extended to 2002 for UCN 3, 4 and YGN 3, 4 respectively. We focus on the major safety related rotating components such as pump, EDG etc

  13. Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

    2017-08-01

    In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

  14. Safety culture indicators for NPP: international trends and development status in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Y. S.; Ko, J. D.; Choi, K. S.; Jung, Y. H.

    2004-01-01

    Safety culture has been recognized as important to achieve high level of nuclear safety, as several recent events that have occurred in advanced countries were found to have important implications for safety culture. Under the recognition, implementation-focused and practical methods to foster safety culture have become necessary. Development of safety culture indicators for assessing the level of safety culture and identifying some deficiencies is being conducted. This paper examines the regulatory positions of major nuclear power countries on licensee's safety culture, introduces the development status of Korean Safety Culture Indicators and presents its future direction

  15. A retrospective study and predictive modelling of Newcastle Disease trends among rural poultry of eastern Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mubamba, C; Ramsay, G; Abolnik, C; Dautu, G; Gummow, B

    2016-10-01

    Newcastle Disease (ND) is a highly infectious disease of poultry that seriously impacts on food security and livelihoods of livestock farmers and communities in tropical regions of the world. ND is a constant problem in the eastern province of Zambia which has more than 740 000 rural poultry. Very few studies give a situational analysis of the disease that can be used for disease control planning in the region. With this background in mind, a retrospective epidemiological study was conducted using Newcastle Disease data submitted to the eastern province headquarters for the period from 1989 to 2014. The study found that Newcastle Disease cases in eastern Zambia followed a seasonal and cyclic pattern with peaks in the hot dry season (Overall Seasonal Index 1.1) as well as cycles every three years with an estimated provincial incidence range of 0.16 to 1.7% per year. Annual trends were compared with major intervention policies implemented by the Zambian government, which often received donor support from the international community during the study period. Aid delivered through government programmes appeared to have no major impact on ND trends between 1989 and 2014 and reasons for this are discussed. There were apparent spatial shifts in districts with outbreaks over time which could be as a result of veterinary interventions chasing outbreaks rather than implementing uniform control. Data was also fitted to a predictive time series model for ND which could be used to plan for future ND control. Time series modelling showed an increasing trend in ND annual incidence over 25 years if existing interventions continue. A different approach to controlling the disease is needed if this trend is to be halted. Conversely, the positive trend may be a function of improved reporting by farmers as a result of more awareness of the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Research of combination model for prediction of the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yin-ping CHEN

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective To establish a combination model of autoregressive integrated moving average model and the grey dynamics (ARIMA-GM of hepatitis B incidence rate (1/100 000 to predict the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B, as to provide a scientific basis for the early discovery of the infectious diseases for the performance of countermeasures of controlling its spread. Methods The monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Qian'an city, Hebei province, was collected from Jan 2004 to Dec 2012, and a model (ARIMA was reproduced with SPSS software. The GM (1,1 model was used to correct the residual sequence with a threshold value, and a combined forecasting model was reproduced. This combination model was used to predict the monthly incidence rate in this city in 2013. Results The model ARIMA(0,1,1(0,1,112 was established successfully and the residual sequence was a white noise sequence. Then the GM (1,1 model with a threshold of 3 was used to correct its residuals and obtain its nonlinear feature extraction of information. The forecasting model met required precision standards (C=0.673, P=0.877, the fitting accuracy of which was basically qualified. The results showed that the MAE, MAPE of the ARIMA-GM combined model were smaller than that of a single model, and the combined model could improve the prediction accuracy. Using the combined model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis B during Jan 2013 to Dec 2013, the overall trend was relatively consistent with the condition of previous years. Conclusion The ARIMA-GM combined model can better fit the incidence rate of hepatitis B with a greater accuracy than the seasonal ARIMA model. The prediction results can provide the reference for the early warning system of HBV. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2014.01.12

  17. Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

    2016-10-01

    As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

  18. Trends of Abutment-Scour Prediction Equations Applied to 144 Field Sites in South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedict, Stephen T.; Deshpande, Nikhil; Aziz, Nadim M.; Conrads, Paul

    2006-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration in which predicted abutment-scour depths computed with selected predictive equations were compared with field measurements of abutment-scour depth made at 144 bridges in South Carolina. The assessment used five equations published in the Fourth Edition of 'Evaluating Scour at Bridges,' (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18), including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. An additional unpublished equation also was assessed. Comparisons between predicted and observed scour depths are intended to illustrate general trends and order-of-magnitude differences for the prediction equations. Field measurements were taken during non-flood conditions when the hydraulic conditions that caused the scour generally are unknown. The predicted scour depths are based on hydraulic conditions associated with the 100-year flow at all sites and the flood of record for 35 sites. Comparisons showed that predicted scour depths frequently overpredict observed scour and at times were excessive. The comparison also showed that underprediction occurred, but with less frequency. The performance of these equations indicates that they are poor predictors of abutment-scour depth in South Carolina, and it is probable that poor performance will occur when the equations are applied in other geographic regions. Extensive data and graphs used to compare predicted and observed scour depths in this study were compiled into spreadsheets and are included in digital format with this report. In addition to the equation-comparison data, Water-Surface Profile Model tube-velocity data, soil-boring data, and selected abutment-scour data are included in digital format with this report. The digital database was developed as a resource for future researchers and is especially valuable for evaluating the reasonableness of future equations that may be developed.

  19. Predicting decadal trends and transient responses of radiocarbon storage and fluxes in a temperate forest soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Sierra

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Representing the response of soil carbon dynamics to global environmental change requires the incorporation of multiple tools in the development of predictive models. An important tool to construct and test models is the incorporation of bomb radiocarbon in soil organic matter during the past decades. In this manuscript, we combined radiocarbon data and a previously developed empirical model to explore decade-scale soil carbon dynamics in a temperate forest ecosystem at the Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. We evaluated the contribution of different soil C fractions to both total soil CO2 efflux and microbially respired C. We tested the performance of the model based on measurable soil organic matter fractions against a decade of radiocarbon measurements. The model was then challenged with radiocarbon measurements from a warming and N addition experiment to test multiple hypotheses about the different response of soil C fractions to the experimental manipulations. Our results showed that the empirical model satisfactorily predicts the trends of radiocarbon in litter, density fractions, and respired CO2 observed over a decade in the soils not subjected to manipulation. However, the model, modified with prescribed relationships for temperature and decomposition rates, predicted most but not all the observations from the field experiment where soil temperatures and nitrogen levels were increased, suggesting that a larger degree of complexity and mechanistic relations need to be added to the model to predict short-term responses and transient dynamics.

  20. Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

    2015-01-01

    Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

  1. Emotional Exhaustion and Workload Predict Clinician-Rated and Objective Patient Safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annalena eWelp

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. (Multilevel regression analysis was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety were associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios.Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables or and support the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety.

  2. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  3. Prediction of the safety level in a tritium processing facility through predictive maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anghel, Vasile

    2007-01-01

    Full text: The safety level of a nuclear facility for personnel and environment depends generally on the technological process quality of operation and maintenance and particularly on several technical, technological, economic, and human factors. The role of maintenance is fundamental because it is determined by all the technical, economic and human elements as parts of an integrated system dominated by an important feedback from upstream activities which eventually define the life cycle of the nuclear facility considered. In the maintenance activity as in case of any dynamic area, new elements may appear which, sometimes, require new methods of approach. For considered installation which is a Nuclear Detritiation Plant (NDP) operating as a division of the National Research and Development Institute for Cryogenics and Isotopic Technologies - ICSI, Rm.Valcea, in order to ensure a safety level in operation as high as possible through predictive maintenance, the fuzzy theory and software LabVIEW were applied. The final aim is to achieve the best practices in maintenance of the tritium processing plant. The safety in operation of the NDP equipment and installations is directly related with the maintenance achieved by improving the reliability through methods and advanced techniques. The maintainability is the capacity of an industrial product, in given utilization conditions, to be maintained and re-established up to achieve specified functions. In general the reliability on some interval is a probability conditioned by good operation at the beginning of the interval, representing thus the probability as the element which operated at t = t 0 to operate in the interval (t 0 , t 1 ). The failure is a fundamental event in the reliability theory. Breakdown (failure) is understood as the stop process of the function required from a given product, the failure representing the effect upon that process. The operation of a product on a certain duration can be a 'success' or a

  4. Prevalence of current patterns and predictive trends of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Sudan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayman A. Elshayeb

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Enteric fever has persistence of great impact in Sudanese public health especially during rainy season when the causative agent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi possesses pan endemic patterns in most regions of Sudan - Khartoum. Objectives The present study aims to assess the recent state of antibiotics susceptibility of Salmonella Typhi with special concern to multidrug resistance strains and predict the emergence of new resistant patterns and outbreaks. Methods Salmonella Typhi strains were isolated and identified according to the guidelines of the International Standardization Organization and the World Health Organization. The antibiotics susceptibilities were tested using the recommendations of the Clinical Laboratories Standards Institute. Predictions of emerging resistant bacteria patterns and outbreaks in Sudan were done using logistic regression, forecasting linear equations and in silico simulations models. Results A total of 124 antibiotics resistant Salmonella Typhi strains categorized in 12 average groups were isolated, different patterns of resistance statistically calculated by (y = ax − b. Minimum bactericidal concentration’s predication of resistance was given the exponential trend (y = n ex and the predictive coefficient R2 > 0 < 1 are approximately alike. It was assumed that resistant bacteria occurred with a constant rate of antibiotic doses during the whole experimental period. Thus, the number of sensitive bacteria decreases at the same rate as resistant occur following term to the modified predictive model which solved computationally. Conclusion This study assesses the prediction of multi-drug resistance among S. Typhi isolates by applying low cost materials and simple statistical methods suitable for the most frequently used antibiotics as typhoid empirical therapy. Therefore, bacterial surveillance systems should be implemented to present data on the aetiology and current

  5. Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hake, Anna; Pfeifer, Nico

    2017-10-01

    Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient's viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population.

  6. Prevalence of current patterns and predictive trends of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Sudan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshayeb, Ayman A; Ahmed, Abdelazim A; El Siddig, Marmar A; El Hussien, Adil A

    2017-11-14

    Enteric fever has persistence of great impact in Sudanese public health especially during rainy season when the causative agent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi possesses pan endemic patterns in most regions of Sudan - Khartoum. The present study aims to assess the recent state of antibiotics susceptibility of Salmonella Typhi with special concern to multidrug resistance strains and predict the emergence of new resistant patterns and outbreaks. Salmonella Typhi strains were isolated and identified according to the guidelines of the International Standardization Organization and the World Health Organization. The antibiotics susceptibilities were tested using the recommendations of the Clinical Laboratories Standards Institute. Predictions of emerging resistant bacteria patterns and outbreaks in Sudan were done using logistic regression, forecasting linear equations and in silico simulations models. A total of 124 antibiotics resistant Salmonella Typhi strains categorized in 12 average groups were isolated, different patterns of resistance statistically calculated by (y = ax - b). Minimum bactericidal concentration's predication of resistance was given the exponential trend (y = n e x ) and the predictive coefficient R 2  > 0 current antimicrobial drug resistance patterns of community-acquired agents causing outbreaks.

  7. Innovative sub sea pipeline maintenance in line with emerging offshore trends and maintenance safety standards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, George [T.D. Williamson, Inc., Tulsa, OK (United States)

    2012-07-01

    attached to the Sub sea 1200RC machine and operated from an on-board laptop. This results in a lightweight hot tap frame and total direct control of the cutting process. The machine has been designed, built, tested and successfully deployed on a recent sub sea tap for a pipeline operator in Asia. This technology promotes the 'separation of man and machine' proposition. It reduces risk by reducing diver exposure, enhances safety, provides direct control and visibility from a laptop and facilitates fast and accurate execution. Ultimately, the concept may be extended toward onshore hot tap applications in risky environments calling for remotely operated systems. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a major new contribution in terms of knowledge and expertise to the offshore pipeline maintenance environment. It will detail the process and procedures, as well as delve into a customer application and the results. Part of the details will include areas of testing of the equipment, conditions in which it is designed to perform and how the needs of the pipeline operators were incorporated into the execution of the project. The results of the operation are meant to demonstrate how technology is progressing in line with emerging offshore trends, especially offshore exploration in Brazil. (author)

  8. Cognitive functioning differentially predicts different dimensions of older drivers' on-road safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksan, Nazan; Anderson, Steve W; Dawson, Jeffrey; Uc, Ergun; Rizzo, Matthew

    2015-02-01

    The extent to which deficits in specific cognitive domains contribute to older drivers' safety risk in complex real-world driving tasks is not well understood. We selected 148 drivers older than 70 years of age both with and without neurodegenerative diseases (Alzheimer disease-AD and Parkinson disease-PD) from an existing driving database of older adults. Participant assessments included on-road driving safety and cognitive functioning in visuospatial construction, speed of processing, memory, and executive functioning. The standardized on-road drive test was designed to examine multiple facets of older driver safety including navigation performance (e.g., following a route, identifying landmarks), safety errors while concurrently performing secondary navigation tasks ("on-task" safety errors), and safety errors in the absence of any secondary navigation tasks ("baseline" safety errors). The inter-correlations of these outcome measures were fair to moderate supporting their distinctiveness. Participants with diseases performed worse than the healthy aging group on all driving measures and differences between those with AD and PD were minimal. In multivariate analyses, different domains of cognitive functioning predicted distinct facets of driver safety on road. Memory and set-shifting predicted performance in navigation-related secondary tasks, speed of processing predicted on-task safety errors, and visuospatial construction predicted baseline safety errors. These findings support broad assessments of cognitive functioning to inform decisions regarding older driver safety on the road and suggest navigation performance may be useful in evaluating older driver fitness and restrictions in licensing. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Trends in food safety standards and regulation implications for developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Caswell, Julie A.

    2003-01-01

    "Food safety is affected by the decisions of producers, processors, distributors, food service operators, and consumers, as well as by government regulations. In developed countries, the demand for higher levels of food safety has led to the implementation of regulatory programs that address more types of safety-related attributes (such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), microbial pathogens, environmental contaminants, and animal drug and pesticide residues) and impose stricter standa...

  10. Prediction of Driving Safety in Individuals with Homonymous Hemianopia and Quadrantanopia from Clinical Neuroimaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael S. Vaphiades

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from −0.29 to 0.04. The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28. Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions.

  11. Prediction of driving safety in individuals with homonymous hemianopia and quadrantanopia from clinical neuroimaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaphiades, Michael S; Kline, Lanning B; McGwin, Gerald; Owsley, Cynthia; Shah, Ritu; Wood, Joanne M

    2014-01-01

    Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault) for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from -0.29 to 0.04). The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28). Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions.

  12. Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Aleyamma; George, Preethi Sara; Arjunan, Asha; Augustine, Paul; Kalavathy, Mc; Padmakumari, G; Mathew, Beela Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

  13. Safety of Workers in Indian Mines: Study, Analysis, and Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikha Verma

    2017-09-01

    Conclusion: Unsafe acts of the worker are the most critical human factors identified to be controlled on priority basis. A significant association of factors (namely age, experience of the worker, and shift of work with unsafe acts performed by the operator is identified based upon which the FRA-based accident prediction model is proposed.

  14. Trajectory Analysis and Prediction for Improved Pedestrian Safety

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møgelmose, Andreas; Trivedi, Mohan M.; Moeslund, Thomas B.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a monocular and purely vision based pedestrian trajectory tracking and prediction framework with integrated map-based hazard inference. In Advanced Driver Assistance systems research, a lot of effort has been put into pedestrian detection over the last decade, and several pede...

  15. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  16. Regulatory assessment of safety culture in nuclear organisations - current trends and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronea, M.

    2010-01-01

    The paper gives an overview of the current practices in the area of regulatory assessment of safety culture in nuclear organisations and of the associated challenges. While the assessment and inspection procedures currently in use by regulatory authorities worldwide are directed primarily at verifying compliance with the licensing basis, there is a recognised need for a more systematic approach to the identification, collection and review of data relevant to the safety culture in licensees' organisations. The paper presents a proposal for using the existing regulatory inspection practices for gathering information relevant to safety culture and for assessing it in an integrated manner. The proposal is based on the latest requirements and guidance issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on management systems for nuclear facilities and activities, particularly as regards the attributes needed for a strong nuclear safety culture. (author)

  17. A New approach to the spread of safety culture. The trend of studies and practice in the foreign nuclear power industry, and future approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hasegawa, Naoko; Takano, Kenichi

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to clarify organizational factors influencing on safety and to suggest future approach for the spread of safety culture. As the results of investigations on safety companies, characteristics of organizational policies, those of safety activities' purposes, and organizational factors which encourage workers to take a positive attitude toward the safety activities were clarified. Based on the clarified characteristics and the trend of studies and practice in the foreign nuclear power industry, it was suggested that it would be necessary for the spread of safety culture in an organization to learn lessons for the prevention of accidents' recurring and to maintain safety behavior and attitude for the prevention of accidents' occurring. For support of this, it is desired to develop the assessment system of organizational safety and the planning system of safety management. The new approach was also suggested with the process model for influence of organizational factors which include workers' psychological aspects. (author)

  18. Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2016-01-01

    As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

  19. Improving patient safety culture in Saudi Arabia (2012-2015): trending, improvement and benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alswat, Khalid; Abdalla, Rawia Ahmad Mustafa; Titi, Maher Abdelraheim; Bakash, Maram; Mehmood, Faiza; Zubairi, Beena; Jamal, Diana; El-Jardali, Fadi

    2017-08-02

    Measuring patient safety culture can provide insight into areas for improvement and help monitor changes over time. This study details the findings of a re-assessment of patient safety culture in a multi-site Medical City in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Results were compared to an earlier assessment conducted in 2012 and benchmarked with regional and international studies. Such assessments can provide hospital leadership with insight on how their hospital is performing on patient safety culture composites as a result of quality improvement plans. This paper also explored the association between patient safety culture predictors and patient safety grade, perception of patient safety, frequency of events reported and number of events reported. We utilized a customized version of the patient safety culture survey developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The Medical City is a tertiary care teaching facility composed of two sites (total capacity of 904 beds). Data was analyzed using SPSS 24 at a significance level of 0.05. A t-Test was used to compare results from the 2012 survey to that conducted in 2015. Two adopted Generalized Estimating Equations in addition to two linear models were used to assess the association between composites and patient safety culture outcomes. Results were also benchmarked against similar initiatives in Lebanon, Palestine and USA. Areas of strength in 2015 included Teamwork within units, and Organizational Learning-Continuous Improvement; areas requiring improvement included Non-Punitive Response to Error, and Staffing. Comparing results to the 2012 survey revealed improvement on some areas but non-punitive response to error and Staffing remained the lowest scoring composites in 2015. Regression highlighted significant association between managerial support, organizational learning and feedback and improved survey outcomes. Comparison to international benchmarks revealed that the hospital is performing at or

  20. Predictive markers of safety and immunogenicity of adjuvanted vaccines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastelic, Beatris; Garçon, Nathalie; Del Giudice, Giuseppe; Golding, Hana; Gruber, Marion; Neels, Pieter; Fritzell, Bernard

    2013-11-01

    Vaccination represents one of the greatest public health triumphs; in part due to the effect of adjuvants that have been included in vaccine preparations to boost the immune responses through different mechanisms. Although a variety of novel adjuvants have been under development, only a limited number have been approved by regulatory authorities for human vaccines. This report reflects the conclusions of a group of scientists from academia, regulatory agencies and industry who attended a conference on the current state of the art in the adjuvant field. Held at the U.S. Pharmacopeial Convention (USP) in Rockville, Maryland, USA, from 18 to 19 April 2013 and organized by the International Association for Biologicals (IABS), the conference focused particularly on the future development of effective adjuvants and adjuvanted vaccines and on overcoming major hurdles, such as safety and immunogenicity assessment, as well as regulatory scrutiny. More information on the conference output can be found on the IABS website, http://www.iabs.org/. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig S. Machtans

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years and spatial (stations within stands autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively and Canada (9 versus 20. Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24 and Canada (20. Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower and for Canada (1.15% per year lower relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak. However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

  2. Evaluation of experience and trends in international co-operation in nuclear safety and licensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stadie, K.B.; Strohl, P.

    1977-01-01

    The paper traces the development of co-operation in nuclear safety technology between the OECD Member countries which began as early as 1965 and is now organised under the auspices of the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. The principal objective is to exchange and evaluate information on relevant R and D and hence broaden the technical basis for decision-making by licensing authorities in the different countries. The membership of the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations combines expertise in nuclear safety R and D and in licensing questions so that licensing procedures in the different countries may be exposed continuously to the influence of overall technological progress. The Committee actively seeks to narrow the differences between administrative procedures and traditional legal practices in Member countries as these affect the licensing of nuclear installations, primarily by assessing and comparing the methods employed. The paper shows how the Committee's working arrangements provide for maximum flexibility: the various co-ordinated programmes are selected after in-depth evaluation of potential areas of priority and are implemented through ad hoc Working Groups, specialist meetings or task forces, or in the form of special studies involving all interested countries. The results, conclusions and recommendations emerging from each programme are reviewed by the Committee before dissemination. Hitherto the greater part of the Committee's activities has been concerned with the safety of light water reactors and related subjects, but more attention is now being given to other topics such as LMFBR safety technology and the safety of fuel cycle facilities, particularly those at the end of the process, the so-called ''back-end'' plants. The paper discusses certain problems and constraints encountered in implementing the programme, some of which stem from Member countries' different degrees of penetration

  3. Current trends in codal requirements for safety in operation of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivasista, K.; Shah, Y.K.; Gupta, S.K.

    2006-01-01

    The Code of practice on safety in nuclear power plant operation states the requirements to be met during operation of a nuclear power plant for assuring safety. Among various stages of authorization, regulatory body issues authorization for operation of a nuclear power plant, monitors and enforces regulatory requirements. The responsible organization shall have overall responsibility and the plant management shall have the primary responsibility for ensuring safe and efficient operation of its nuclear power plants. A set of codal requirements covering technical and administrative aspects are mandatory for the plant management to implement to ensure that the nuclear power plant is operated in accordance with the design intent. Requirements on operating procedures and instructions establish operation and maintenance, inspection and testing of the plant in a planned and systematic way. The requirements on emergency preparedness programme establish with a reasonable assurance that, in the event of an emergency situation, appropriate measures can be taken to mitigate the consequences. Commissioning requirements verify performance criteria during commissioning to ensure that the design intent and QA requirements are met. Several modifications in systems important to safety required during operation of a nuclear power plant are regulated. However new operational codal requirements arising out of periodic safety review, operational experience feedback, life management, probabilistic safety assessment, physical security, safety convention and obligations and decommissioning are not covered in the present code of practice for safety in nuclear power plant operation. Codal provisions on 'Review by operating organization on aspects of design having implications on operability' are also required to be addressed. The merits in developing such a methodology include acceptance of the design by operating organization, ensuring maintainability, proper layout etc. in the new designs

  4. Trends in technology, trade and consumption likely to impact on microbial food safety

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quested, T.E.; Cook, P.E.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Cole, M.B.

    2010-01-01

    Current and potential future trends in technology, consumption and trade of food that may impact on food-borne disease are analysed and the key driving factors identified focusing on the European Union and, to a lesser extent, accounting for the United States and global issues. Understanding of

  5. Trends in development of new generation of NPPs with increased safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumyantsev, V.V.

    1992-01-01

    The main requirements for designing, construction and operation of NPPs with advanced water cooled ALWR and SBWR reactors being under development in the USA are discussed. The trends in modernization of control systems at NPPs of new generation based on wide introduction of digital computers and visualization of technological parameter measurements are considered

  6. Assessment of S(α, β) libraries for criticality safety evaluations of wet storage pools by refined trend analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolbe, E.; Vasiliev, A.; Ferroukhi, H.

    2009-01-01

    In a recent criticality safety evaluation (CSE) of a commercial wet storage pool applying MCNPX-2.5.0 in combination with the ENDF/B-VII.0 and JEFF-3.1 continuous energy cross section libraries, the maximum permissible initial fuel-enrichment limit for water reflected configurations was found to be dependant upon the applied neutron cross section library. More detailed investigations indicated that the difference is mainly caused by different sub-libraries for thermal neutron scattering based on parameterizations of the S(α, β) scattering matrix. Hence an analysis of trends was done with respect to the low energy neutron flux in order to assess the S(α, β) data sets. First, when performing the trend analysis based on the full set of 149 benchmarks that were employed for the validation, significant trends could not be found. But by analyzing a selected subset of benchmarks clear trends with respect to the low energy neutron flux could be detected. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the sensitivity of specific configurations to the parameterizations of the S(α, β) scattering matrix and thus may help to improve CSE of wet storage pools. Finally, in addition to the low energy neutron flux, we also refined the trend analyses with respect to other key (spectrum-related) parameters by performing them with various selected subsets of the full suite of 149 benchmarks. The corresponding outcome using MCNPX 2.5.0 in combination with the ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VI.8, JEFF-3.1, JEF-2.2, and JENDL-3.3 neutron cross section libraries are presented and discussed. (authors)

  7. Group contribution modelling for the prediction of safety-related and environmental properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens; Sin, Gürkan

    warming potential and ozone depletion potential. Process safety studies and environmental assessments rely on accurate property data. Safety data such as flammability limits, heat of combustion or auto ignition temperature play an important role in quantifying the risk of fire and explosions among others......We present a new set of property prediction models based on group contributions to predict major safety-related and environmental properties for organic compounds. The predicted list of properties includes lower and upper flammability limits, heat of combustion, auto ignition temperature, global...... models like group contribution (GC) models can estimate data. However, the estimation needs to be accurate, reliable and as little time-consuming as possible so that the models can be used on the fly. In this study the Marrero and Gani group contribution (MR GC) method has been used to develop the models...

  8. Advances in Predictive Toxicology for Discovery Safety through High Content Screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Mikael; Hornberg, Jorrit J

    2016-12-19

    High content screening enables parallel acquisition of multiple molecular and cellular readouts. In particular the predictive toxicology field has progressed from the advances in high content screening, as more refined end points that report on cellular health can be studied in combination, at the single cell level, and in relatively high throughput. Here, we discuss how high content screening has become an essential tool for Discovery Safety, the discipline that integrates safety and toxicology in the drug discovery process to identify and mitigate safety concerns with the aim to design drug candidates with a superior safety profile. In addition to customized mechanistic assays to evaluate target safety, routine screening assays can be applied to identify risk factors for frequently occurring organ toxicities. We discuss the current state of high content screening assays for hepatotoxicity, cardiotoxicity, neurotoxicity, nephrotoxicity, and genotoxicity, including recent developments and current advances.

  9. The Trends and their Impact on Fishery Products Safety and Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Adrian ZUGRAVU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper follows two main objectives: to understand consumers’ perception of safety and quality of fishery products and to identify communication levers in order to improve the perceived image of fishery products. The present research is focused on the fishery products, regardless of their presentation – fresh, frozen or processed. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of Romanian consumers’ perception toward fishery products. The empirical study with brands indicated that consumers are different awareness to domestic and foreign safety fish products. National fishery products got more attention from the consumers.

  10. New risks and trends in the safety and health of women at work

    OpenAIRE

    Flaspöler, E; Hauke, A; Koppisch, D; Reinert, D; Koukoulaki, T; Vilkevicius, G; Žemės, L; Águila Martínez-Casariego, M; Baquero Martínez, M; González Lozar, L; Vega Martínez, S; López Riera, S; Carter, L; Leah, C; Gervais, R

    2013-01-01

    In 2009 and 2010, the Agency commissioned an update to its previous research on gender issues at\\ud work (EU-OSHA, 2003), which found that inequality both within and outside the workplace can have\\ud an effect on the health and safety of women at work. This report provides that update and the first\\ud figures on the effects of the recent economic downturn on women at work. It aims to fulfil the task\\ud outlined by the European strategy on health and safety at work (EC, 2002) for EU-OSHA’s Eur...

  11. Prediction of two-phase choked-flow through safety valves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnulfo, G; Bertani, C; De Salve, M

    2014-01-01

    Different models of two-phase choked flow through safety valves are applied in order to evaluate their capabilities of prediction in different thermal-hydraulic conditions. Experimental data available in the literature for two-phase fluid and subcooled liquid upstream the safety valve have been compared with the models predictions. Both flashing flows and non-flashing flows of liquid and incondensable gases have been considered. The present paper shows that for flashing flows good predictions are obtained by using the two-phase valve discharge coefficient defined by Lenzing and multiplying it by the critical flow rate in an ideal nozzle evaluated by either Omega Method or the Homogeneous Non-equilibrium Direct Integration. In case of non-flashing flows of water and air, Leung/Darby formulation of the two-phase valve discharge coefficient together with the Omega Method is more suitable to the prediction of flow rate.

  12. Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

    2018-02-01

    Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  13. Value of preapproval safety data in predicting postapproval hepatic safety and assessing the legitimacy of class warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yeong-Liang; Wu, Ya-Chi; Gau, Churn-Shiouh; Lin, Min-Shung

    2012-02-01

    The objective of this study was to systematically evaluate whether preapproval safety data for nonhepatotoxic drugs and hepatotoxic drugs can be compared to improve preapproval prediction of postapproval hepatic safety and to assess the legitimacy of applying class warnings. Drugs within a therapeutic class that included at least one drug that had been withdrawn from the market because of liver toxicity or had a warning of potential liver toxicity issued by major regulatory agencies, and at least one drug free from such regulatory action, were identified and divided into two groups: drugs with and drugs without regulatory action. Preapproval clinical data [including the elevation rates of alanine aminotransferse (ALT) and withdrawal due to liver toxicity, the number of patients with combined elevation of ALT and bilirubin, and liver failure] and nonclinical data (including chemical structures, metabolic pathways, and other significant findings in animal studies) were compared between the two groups. Six drug classes were assessed in this study: thiazolidinediones, cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, fluoroquinolones, catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) inhibitors, leukotriene receptor inhibitors, and endothelin receptor antagonists. In two classes (COMT inhibitors and endothelin receptor antagonists), drugs with regulatory action had significantly higher rates of ALT elevation of more than threefold and greater numbers of patients with combined elevation of ALT and bilirubin than drugs without regulatory action. Drugs with regulatory action also had chemical structures or metabolic pathways associated with the toxicity. The legitimacy of class warnings was refuted in all six classes of drugs. Preapproval safety data may help predict postapproval hepatic safety and can be used to assess the legitimacy of applying class warnings.

  14. ADSA Foundation Scholar Award: Trends in culture-independent methods for assessing dairy food quality and safety: emerging metagenomic tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Marie

    2012-12-01

    Enhancing the quality and safety of dairy food is critical to maintaining the competitiveness of dairy products in the food and beverage market and in reinforcing consumer confidence in the dairy industry. Raw milk quality has a significant effect on finished product quality. Several microbial groups found in raw milk have been shown to adversely affect the shelf life of pasteurized milk. Current microbiological criteria used to define milk quality are based primarily on culture-dependent methods, some of which are perceived to lack the desired sensitivity and specificity. To supplement traditional methods, culture-independent methods are increasingly being used to identify specific species or microbial groups, and to detect indicator genes or proteins in raw milk or dairy products. Some molecular subtyping techniques have been developed to track the transmission of microbes in dairy environments. The burgeoning "-omics" technologies offer new and exciting opportunities to enhance our understanding of food quality and safety in relation to microbes. Metagenomics has the potential to characterize microbial diversity, detect nonculturable microbes, and identify unique sequences or other factors associated with dairy product quality and safety. In this review, fluid milk will be used as the primary example to examine the adequacy and validity of conventional methods, the current trend of culture-independent methods, and the potential applications of metagenomics in dairy food research. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Nitrogen speciation and trends, and prediction of denitrification extent, in shallow US groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinkle, Stephen R.; Tesoriero, Anthony J.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainties surrounding nitrogen cycling complicate assessments of the environmental effects of nitrogen use and our understanding of the global carbon–nitrogen cycle. In this paper, we synthesize data from 877 ambient-monitoring wells across the US to frame broad patterns of nitrogen speciation and trends. At these sites, groundwater frequently contains substantial co-occurring NO3− and XSN2 (N2 from denitrification), reflecting active/ongoing denitrification and/or a mixture of undenitrified and denitrified groundwater. NO3− and NH4+ essentially do not co-occur, indicating that the dominant source of NH4+ at these sites likely is not dissimilatory reduction of NO3− to NH4+. Positive correlations of NH4+ with apparent age, CH4, dissolved organic carbon, and indicators of reduced conditions are consistent with NH4+ mobilization from degradation of aquifer organic matter and contraindicate an anthropogenic source of NH4+ for most sites. Glacial aquifers and eastern sand and gravel aquifers generally have lower proportions of NO3− and greater proportions of XSN2 than do fractured rock and karst aquifers and western sand and gravel aquifers. NO3− dominates in the youngest groundwater, but XSN2 increases as residence time increases. Temporal patterns of nitrogen speciation and concentration reflect (1) changing NO3− loads over time, (2) groundwater residence-time controls on NH4+ mobilization from solid phases, and (3) groundwater residence-time controls on denitrification. A simple classification tree using readily available variables (a national coverage of soil water depth, generalized geology) or variables reasonably estimated in many aquifers (residence time) identifies categorical denitrification extent (50%) with 79% accuracy in an independent testing set, demonstrating a predictive application based on the interconnected effects of redox, geology, and residence time.

  16. The Trends and their Impact on Fishery Products Safety and Quality

    OpenAIRE

    Gheorghe Adrian ZUGRAVU; Maria Magdalena TUREK RAHOVEANU

    2012-01-01

    The paper follows two main objectives: to understand consumers’ perception of safety and quality of fishery products and to identify communication levers in order to improve the perceived image of fishery products. The present research is focused on the fishery products, regardless of their presentation – fresh, frozen or processed. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of Romanian consumers’ perception toward fishery products. The empirical study with brands indicated that consumers ar...

  17. Principal trends in ensuring safety in nuclear power plant operation in the CSSR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beranek, J.; Kriz, Z.; Kovar, P.; Macoun, J.

    1984-01-01

    At present two reactor units of the VVER-440 type industrial nuclear power plant are in operation in Czechoslovakia and another ten units are planned to be commissioned and put in operation by 1990. The operation of these units is carried out in compliance with licences and regulations issued by the State Regulatory Body for Nuclear Safety, a body established within the framework of the Czechoslovak Atomic Energy Commission. Operational nuclear safety assurance is based primarily on compliance with the basic safety concept as conceived in the plant design and on compliance with the requirements and terms stipulated in the course of the licensing process. On this basis, the State supervisory activity concentrates on the quality assurance of components and installations important for nuclear safety, on the quality of operating personnel and on compliance with limits and conditions for safe operation. The paper presents the main requirements stipulated in Regulation No.5 on quality assurance issued by the Czechoslovak Atomic Energy Commission and shows how the regulation is being applied. The conditions and modes of proving compliance with quality assurance programmes during plant implementation (design, fabrication, assembly, commissioning) and plant operation are described. The qualification prerequisites and capability requirements for selected categories of operating personnel as stipulated in the existing regulations are outlined. The experience accumulated by the regulatory body in preparing, examining and supervising the activity of the personnel is described. Consideration is given to the question of operational management, with the emphasis on compliance with the limits and conditions for safe operation and on the procedures for their alteration and for reporting infringements. (author)

  18. Examining the safety of PPAR agonists - current trends and future prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolini, Michele; Wright, Matthew B; Bopst, Martin; Balas, Bogdana

    2013-01-01

    The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-α and -γ agonists, fibrates and glitazones, are effective treatments for dyslipidemia and type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively, but exhibit class-related, as well as compound-specific safety characteristics. This article reviews the profiles of PPAR-α, PPAR-γ, and dual PPAR-α/γ agonists with regard to class-related and compound-specific efficacy and adverse effects. We explore how learnings from first-generation drugs are being applied to develop safer PPAR-targeted therapies. The finding that rosiglitazone may increase risk for cardiovascular events has led to regulatory guidelines requiring demonstration of cardiovascular safety in appropriate outcome trials for new type 2 diabetes mellitus drugs. The emerging data on the possibly increased risk of bladder cancer with pioglitazone may prompt the need for post-approval safety studies for new drugs. Since PPAR-α and -γ affect key cardiometabolic risk factors (diabetic dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, hyperglycemia, and inflammation) in a complementary fashion, combining their benefits has emerged as a particularly attractive option. New PPAR-targeted therapies that balance the relative potency and/or activity toward PPAR-α and -γ have shown promise in retaining efficacy while reducing potential side effects.

  19. Current activities and future trends in reliability analysis and probabilistic safety assessment in Hungary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollo, E.; Toth, J.

    1986-01-01

    In Hungary reliability analysis (RA) and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants was initiated 3 years ago. First, computer codes for automatic fault tree analysis (CAT, PREP) and numerical evaluation (REMO, KITT1,2) were adapted. Two main case studies - detailed availability/reliability calculation of diesel sets and analysis of safety systems influencing event sequences induced by large LOCA - were performed. Input failure data were taken from publications, a need for failure and reliability data bank was revealed. Current and future activities involves: setup of national data bank for WWER-440 units; full-scope level-I PSA of PAKS NPP in Hungary; operational safety assessment of particular problems at PAKS NPP. In the present article the state of RA and PSA activities in Hungary, as well as the main objectives of ongoing work are described. A need for international cooperation (for unified data collection of WWER-440 units) and for IAEA support (within Interregional Program INT/9/063) is emphasized. (author)

  20. The future trends for research on quality and safety of animal products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel D. Scollan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Quality must now be considered as a convergence between consumers' wishes and needs and the intrinsic and extrinsic quality attributes of food products. The increasing number of quality attributes which must be considered, increasing globalisation and the heterogeneity in consumption habits between countries are making this convergence progressively more difficult. In parallel, science is rapidly evolving (with the advent of genomics for instance, and a growing number of applications is thus expected for the improvement of food safety and quality. Among the meat and fish quality attributes, colour is very important because it determines, at least in part, consumer choice. The key targets to ensure a satisfactory colour are animal nutrition and management for fish, processing and product conditioning for meat. Tenderness and flavour continue to be important issues for the consumer because eating remains a pleasure. They both determine quality experience which itself influences repetitive purchase. Meat tenderness is a very complex problem which can be solved only by a holistic approach involving all the factors from conception, animal breeding and production, muscle biology and slaughter practice to carcass processing and meat preparation at the consumer end. Today, safety and healthiness are among the most important issues. Unfortunately, animal products can potentially be a source of biological and chemical contamination for consumers. The introduction of both control strategies along the food chain and the development of a food safety management system, from primary production to the domestic environment, are key issues that must be achieved. Despite a high dietary supply of saturated fats by dairy and meat products, it is imperative that professionals involved in animal research and in the associated industry convey the positive nutritional contributions of animal products to both consumers and health professionals. The latter include protein

  1. Prediction of main factors’ values of air transportation system safety based on system dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiridonov, A. Yu; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikova, E. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Fominykh, D. S.

    2018-05-01

    On the basis of the system-dynamic approach [1-8], a set of models has been developed that makes it possible to analyse and predict the values of the main safety indicators for the operation of aviation transport systems.

  2. Artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy inference systems as virtual sensors for hydrogen safety prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karri, Vishy; Ho, Tien [School of Engineering, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-65, Hobart, Tasmania 7001 (Australia); Madsen, Ole [Department of Production, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 16, DK-9220 Aalborg (Denmark)

    2008-06-15

    Hydrogen is increasingly investigated as an alternative fuel to petroleum products in running internal combustion engines and as powering remote area power systems using generators. The safety issues related to hydrogen gas are further exasperated by expensive instrumentation required to measure the percentage of explosive limits, flow rates and production pressure. This paper investigates the use of model based virtual sensors (rather than expensive physical sensors) in connection with hydrogen production with a Hogen 20 electrolyzer system. The virtual sensors are used to predict relevant hydrogen safety parameters, such as the percentage of lower explosive limit, hydrogen pressure and hydrogen flow rate as a function of different input conditions of power supplied (voltage and current), the feed of de-ionized water and Hogen 20 electrolyzer system parameters. The virtual sensors are developed by means of the application of various Artificial Intelligent techniques. To train and appraise the neural network models as virtual sensors, the Hogen 20 electrolyzer is instrumented with necessary sensors to gather experimental data which together with MATLAB neural networks toolbox and tailor made adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were used as predictive tools to estimate hydrogen safety parameters. It was shown that using the neural networks hydrogen safety parameters were predicted to less than 3% of percentage average root mean square error. The most accurate prediction was achieved by using ANFIS. (author)

  3. Trends in development of probability assessment of nuclear power plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dach, K.

    1989-01-01

    A complete study of probability safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants is a multidisciplinary endeavor, requiring a qualified decision-making team composed of experienced professionals in individual disciplines and requiring good coordination of effort. The main concerns for the execution of a PSA study and related tasks are schematically presented. Also shown is a summary of the main steps for a PSA study at all three levels, with the incorporation of analysis of external events and the reliability of humans, including the necessary uncertainty analyses. 1 ref., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  4. Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

    2018-04-01

    Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

  5. Trends and needs in experimentation and numerical simulation for LWR safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadigaroglu, G.; Andreani, M.; Dreier, J.; Coddington, P.

    2003-01-01

    The very complex phenomena that need to be considered in safety analyses require use of sophisticated analytical tools. Basically, one-dimensional (1D) system codes have been used for a long time and have reached a degree of maturity. There are, however, limits to their capabilities and further developments are underway; these are outlined. The development of new generations of tools and methods can profit from the availability of increasingly powerful computers and advances in multiphase flow, information technology and numerical techniques. Three-dimensional (3D) situations need also to be addressed more frequently now. Certain developments in these directions that are already taking place in various EURATOM research programs and elsewhere are briefly reviewed; case studies of applications are discussed and lessons drawn. Future safety analyses for nuclear power plants may include use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) for parts of the primary system and the containment. First applications in this direction have already been made. Although 3D, single-phase CFD computations are commonplace, the size of the systems considered make these quite challenging. The real challenges lie, however, in two-phase flow CFD applications that are still at their very infancy. Coupling of neutronic and thermal-hydraulic codes is also necessary for certain problems

  6. Trends and needs in experimentation and numerical simulation for LWR safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yadigaroglu, G. E-mail: yadigaroglu@iet.mavt.ethz.ch; Andreani, M.; Dreier, J.; Coddington, P

    2003-04-01

    The very complex phenomena that need to be considered in safety analyses require use of sophisticated analytical tools. Basically, one-dimensional (1D) system codes have been used for a long time and have reached a degree of maturity. There are, however, limits to their capabilities and further developments are underway; these are outlined. The development of new generations of tools and methods can profit from the availability of increasingly powerful computers and advances in multiphase flow, information technology and numerical techniques. Three-dimensional (3D) situations need also to be addressed more frequently now. Certain developments in these directions that are already taking place in various EURATOM research programs and elsewhere are briefly reviewed; case studies of applications are discussed and lessons drawn. Future safety analyses for nuclear power plants may include use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) for parts of the primary system and the containment. First applications in this direction have already been made. Although 3D, single-phase CFD computations are commonplace, the size of the systems considered make these quite challenging. The real challenges lie, however, in two-phase flow CFD applications that are still at their very infancy. Coupling of neutronic and thermal-hydraulic codes is also necessary for certain problems.

  7. CURRENT TRENDS OF THE PROVISION FOR RADIATION SAFETY OF THE POPULATION OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. G. Onishenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available P.V.Ramzaev”The article is devoted to the actual issues ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety providing at the present stage. The important role of radiation-hygienic passportization is underlined in the process of the obtaining of objective information of radiation situation in the country, of population exposure doses from the all sources: artificial and natural, from the use of ionizing irradiation sources in medicine. The leading role is shown of the natural ionizing irradiation sources in the level of the country population exposure. The main directions of activities are stated aimed on the decreasing of population exposure doses from the natural sources. The brief characteristics is given of the radiation situation on the territories radioactively contaminated after the accident on the Chernobyl NPP, in the Pacific Ocean basin after the accident on the “Fukushima-1”NPP, of the main measures for radiation protection providing and for counteraction to radiation terrorism during the period of international sports and mass actions which were carried out in Russia in the last years (XXVII World Summer Universiade in2013 inKazan, XXII Olympic and XI Winter Paralympics Games in2014 inSochi. The most important tasks are defined for the improvement ofRussian Federationpopulation radiation safety at the present stage.

  8. Thermal hydraulic test for reactor safety system - Critical heat flux experiment and development of prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Soon Heung; Baek, Won Pil; Yang, Soo Hyung; No, Chang Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea)

    2000-04-01

    To acquire CHF data through the experiments and develop prediction models, research was conducted. Final objectives of research are as follows: 1) Production of tube CHF data for low and middle pressure and mass flux and Flow Boiling Visualization. 2) Modification and suggestion of tube CHF prediction models. 3) Development of fuel bundle CHF prediction methodology base on tube CHF prediction models. The major results of research are as follows: 1) Production of the CHF data for low and middle pressure and mass flux. - Acquisition of CHF data (764) for low and middle pressure and flow conditions - Analysis of CHF trends based on the CHF data - Assessment of existing CHF prediction methods with the CHF data 2) Modification and suggestion of tube CHF prediction models. - Development of a unified CHF model applicable for a wide parametric range - Development of a threshold length correlation - Improvement of CHF look-up table using the threshold length correlation 3) Development of fuel bundle CHF prediction methodology base on tube CHF prediction models. - Development of bundle CHF prediction methodology using correction factor. 11 refs., 134 figs., 25 tabs. (Author)

  9. Prediction of Clinically Relevant Safety Signals of Nephrotoxicity through Plasma Metabolite Profiling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. B. Mattes

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Addressing safety concerns such as drug-induced kidney injury (DIKI early in the drug pharmaceutical development process ensures both patient safety and efficient clinical development. We describe a unique adjunct to standard safety assessment wherein the metabolite profile of treated animals is compared with the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database in order to predict the potential for a wide variety of adverse events, including DIKI. To examine this approach, a study of five compounds (phenytoin, cyclosporin A, doxorubicin, captopril, and lisinopril was initiated by the Technology Evaluation Consortium under the auspices of the Drug Safety Executive Council (DSEC. The metabolite profiles for rats treated with these compounds matched established reference patterns in the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database indicative of each compound’s well-described clinical toxicities. For example, the DIKI associated with cyclosporine A and doxorubicin was correctly predicted by metabolite profiling, while no evidence for DIKI was found for phenytoin, consistent with its clinical picture. In some cases the clinical toxicity (hepatotoxicity, not generally seen in animal studies, was detected with MetaMap Tox. Thus metabolite profiling coupled with the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database offers a unique and powerful approach for augmenting safety assessment and avoiding clinical adverse events such as DIKI.

  10. A prediction model for the radiation safety management behavior of medical cyclotrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Ji Hye; Han, Eun Ok; Kim, Ssang Tae

    2008-01-01

    This study attempted to provide reference materials for improving the behavior level in radiation safety managements by drawing a prediction model that affects the radiation safety management behavior because the radiation safety management of medical Cyclotrons, which can be used to produce radioisotopes, is an important factor that protects radiation caused diseases not only for radiological operators but average users. In addition, this study obtained follows results through the investigation applied from January 2 to January 30, 2008 for the radiation safety managers employed in 24 authorized organizations, which have already installed Cyclotrons, through applying a specific form of questionnaire in which the validity was guaranteed by reference study, site investigation, and focus discussion by related experts. The radiation safety management were configured as seven steps: step 1 is a production preparation step, step 2 is an RI production step, step 3 is a synthesis step, step 4 is a distribution step, step 5 is a quality control step, step 6 is a carriage container packing step, and step 7 is a transportation step. It was recognized that the distribution step was the most exposed as 15 subjects (62.5%), the items of 'the sanction and permission related works' and 'the guarantee of installation facilities and production equipment' were the most difficult as 9 subjects (37.5%), and in the trouble steps in such exposure, the item of 'the synthesis and distribution' steps were 4 times, respectively (30.8%). In the score of the behavior level in radiation safety managements, the minimum and maximum scores were 2.42 and 4.00, respectively, and the average score was 3.46 ± 0.47 out of 4. Prosperity and well-being programs in the behavior and job in radiation safety managements (r=0.529) represented a significant correlation statistically. In the drawing of a prediction model based on the factors that affected the behavior in radiation safety managements, general

  11. A prediction model for the radiation safety management behavior of medical cyclotrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Ji Hye; Han, Eun Ok [Daegu Health College, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ssang Tae [CareCamp Inc., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2008-06-15

    This study attempted to provide reference materials for improving the behavior level in radiation safety managements by drawing a prediction model that affects the radiation safety management behavior because the radiation safety management of medical Cyclotrons, which can be used to produce radioisotopes, is an important factor that protects radiation caused diseases not only for radiological operators but average users. In addition, this study obtained follows results through the investigation applied from January 2 to January 30, 2008 for the radiation safety managers employed in 24 authorized organizations, which have already installed Cyclotrons, through applying a specific form of questionnaire in which the validity was guaranteed by reference study, site investigation, and focus discussion by related experts. The radiation safety management were configured as seven steps: step 1 is a production preparation step, step 2 is an RI production step, step 3 is a synthesis step, step 4 is a distribution step, step 5 is a quality control step, step 6 is a carriage container packing step, and step 7 is a transportation step. It was recognized that the distribution step was the most exposed as 15 subjects (62.5%), the items of 'the sanction and permission related works' and 'the guarantee of installation facilities and production equipment' were the most difficult as 9 subjects (37.5%), and in the trouble steps in such exposure, the item of 'the synthesis and distribution' steps were 4 times, respectively (30.8%). In the score of the behavior level in radiation safety managements, the minimum and maximum scores were 2.42 and 4.00, respectively, and the average score was 3.46 {+-} 0.47 out of 4. Prosperity and well-being programs in the behavior and job in radiation safety managements (r=0.529) represented a significant correlation statistically. In the drawing of a prediction model based on the factors that affected the behavior in

  12. Predicting the effectiveness of road safety campaigns through alternative research designs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamos, Giannis; Nathanail, Eftihia

    2016-12-01

    A large number of road safety communication campaigns have been designed and implemented in the recent years; however their explicit impact on driving behavior and road accident rates has been estimated in a rather low proportion. Based on the findings of the evaluation of three road safety communication campaigns addressing the issues of drinking and driving, seat belt usage, and driving fatigue, this paper applies different types of research designs (i.e., experimental, quasi-experimental, and non-experimental designs), when estimating the effectiveness of road safety campaigns, implements a cross-design assessment, and conducts a cross-campaign evaluation. An integrated evaluation plan was developed, taking into account the structure of evaluation questions, the definition of measurable variables, the separation of the target audience into intervention (exposed to the campaign) and control (not exposed to the campaign) groups, the selection of alternative research designs, and the appropriate data collection methods and techniques. Evaluating the implementation of different research designs in estimating the effectiveness of road safety campaigns, results showed that the separate pre-post samples design demonstrated better predictability than other designs, especially in data obtained from the intervention group after the realization of the campaign. The more constructs that were added to the independent variables, the higher the values of the predictability were. The construct that most affects behavior is intention, whereas the rest of the constructs have a lower impact on behavior. This is particularly significant in the Health Belief Model (HBM). On the other hand, behavioral beliefs, normative beliefs, and descriptive norms, are significant parameters for predicting intention according to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The theoretical and applied implications of alternative research designs and their applicability in the evaluation of road safety

  13. Resting heart rate variability predicts safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meike Pappens

    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate whether interindividual differences in autonomic inhibitory control predict safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm. Data from a previously reported study (N = 40 were extended (N = 17 and re-analyzed to test whether healthy participants' resting heart rate variability (HRV - a proxy of cardiac vagal tone - predicts learning performance. The conditioned stimulus (CS was a slight sensation of breathlessness induced by a flow resistor, the unconditioned stimulus (US was an aversive short-lasting suffocation experience induced by a complete occlusion of the breathing circuitry. During acquisition, the paired group received 6 paired CS-US presentations; the control group received 6 explicitly unpaired CS-US presentations. In the extinction phase, both groups were exposed to 6 CS-only presentations. Measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance responses (SCR and US-expectancy ratings. Resting HRV significantly predicted the startle blink EMG learning curves both during acquisition and extinction. In the unpaired group, higher levels of HRV at rest predicted safety learning to the CS during acquisition. In the paired group, higher levels of HRV were associated with better extinction. Our findings suggest that the strength or integrity of prefrontal inhibitory mechanisms involved in safety- and extinction learning can be indexed by HRV at rest.

  14. Case Study on Influence Factor Trend Analysis of the Accidents and Events of Nuclear Power Plants by applying Nuclear Safety Culture Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, J. Y.; Park, Y. W.; Park, H.G. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    This study 1) established the standard based on frameworks of safety culture principles that show safety culture promotion goals, 2) analyzed the linkages with the frameworks that were established by analyzing each incident cause and weak point from selected 268 cases(rating over INES grade 1) among 4,088 cases (as of April 1, 2015). The 4,088 cases were selected as a result of database analysis from 702 accidents recorded in accident and rating evaluation reports that were published in the National Nuclear Safety Commission and overseas IRS (International Reporting System for operating Experience), and 3) finally conducted a trend analysis studies with these comprehensive results. From the investigations, followings were concluded. 1) In order to analyze the safety culture, analysis methodology is required. 2) Analytical methodology for building sustainable safety culture promoting a virtuous cycle system was developed 3) Among variety of process input data, 970 domestic and overseas incidents were selected as targets and 502 accidents were classified as safety culture related events by utilizing screen filter of IAEA GS-G-3.5 Appendix I and Framework (Nuclear Safety Culture Base Frame) developed by BEES, Inc. for safety culture analysis method. 4) As a result, complex safety culture influence factors for the one reason which was difficult to separate by conventional methods was able to be analyzed. 5) The cumulative data through the system was results of virtuous trend analysis rather than temporary results. Thus, it could be unique cultural factors of the domestic industry and could derive trend differences for domestic safety culture factors accordingly.

  15. Case Study on Influence Factor Trend Analysis of the Accidents and Events of Nuclear Power Plants by applying Nuclear Safety Culture Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, J. Y.; Park, Y. W.; Park, H.G.

    2016-01-01

    This study 1) established the standard based on frameworks of safety culture principles that show safety culture promotion goals, 2) analyzed the linkages with the frameworks that were established by analyzing each incident cause and weak point from selected 268 cases(rating over INES grade 1) among 4,088 cases (as of April 1, 2015). The 4,088 cases were selected as a result of database analysis from 702 accidents recorded in accident and rating evaluation reports that were published in the National Nuclear Safety Commission and overseas IRS (International Reporting System for operating Experience), and 3) finally conducted a trend analysis studies with these comprehensive results. From the investigations, followings were concluded. 1) In order to analyze the safety culture, analysis methodology is required. 2) Analytical methodology for building sustainable safety culture promoting a virtuous cycle system was developed 3) Among variety of process input data, 970 domestic and overseas incidents were selected as targets and 502 accidents were classified as safety culture related events by utilizing screen filter of IAEA GS-G-3.5 Appendix I and Framework (Nuclear Safety Culture Base Frame) developed by BEES, Inc. for safety culture analysis method. 4) As a result, complex safety culture influence factors for the one reason which was difficult to separate by conventional methods was able to be analyzed. 5) The cumulative data through the system was results of virtuous trend analysis rather than temporary results. Thus, it could be unique cultural factors of the domestic industry and could derive trend differences for domestic safety culture factors accordingly

  16. Elevational trends in hydraulic efficiency and safety of Pinus cembra roots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losso, Adriano; Nardini, Andrea; Nolf, Markus; Mayr, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In alpine regions, elevational gradients in environmental parameters are reflected by structural and functional changes in plant traits. Elevational changes in plant water relations have also been demonstrated, but comparable information on root hydraulics is generally lacking. We analyzed the hydraulic efficiency (specific hydraulic conductivity k s, entire root system conductance K R) and vulnerability to drought-induced embolism (water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity Ψ 50) of the roots of Pinus cembra trees growing along an elevational transect of 600 m. Hydraulic parameters of the roots were compared with those of the stem and related to anatomical traits {mean conduit diameter (d), wall reinforcement [(t/b)(2)]}. We hypothesized that temperature-related restrictions in root function would cause a progressive limitation of hydraulic efficiency and safety with increasing elevation. We found that both root k s and K R decreased from low (1600 m a.s.l.: k s 5.6 ± 0.7 kg m(-1) s(-1) MPa(-1), K R 0.049 ± 0.005 kg m(-2) s (-1) MPa(-1)) to high elevation (2100 m a.s.l.: k s 4.2 ± 0.6 kg m(-1) s(-1) MPa(-1), K R 0.035 ± 0.006 kg m(-2) s(-1) MPa(-1)), with small trees showing higher K R than large trees. k s was higher in roots than in stems (0.5 ± 0.05 kg m(-1)s(-1)MPa(-1)). Ψ 50 values were similar across elevations and overall less negative in roots (Ψ 50 -3.6 ± 0.1 MPa) than in stems (Ψ 50 -3.9 ± 0.1 MPa). In roots, large-diameter tracheids were lacking at high elevation and (t/b)(2) increased, while d did not change. The elevational decrease in root hydraulic efficiency reflects a limitation in timberline tree hydraulics. In contrast, hydraulic safety was similar across elevations, indicating that avoidance of hydraulic failure is important for timberline trees. As hydraulic patterns can only partly be explained by the anatomical parameters studied, limitations and/or adaptations at the pit level are likely.

  17. International demands for retrofitting, trends in the nuclear industry, safety margins, concepts and options for retrofit; Nachfrage nach Nachruestungen international; industrielle Trends; Rolle von Sicherheitsmargen, Nachruestkonzepte und -moeglichkeiten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janke, Rolf; Stoll, Uwe; Grasnick, Claudius [AREVA GmbH, Erlangen (Germany). E and P, P-G

    2016-02-15

    The serious accidents at Fukushima in 2011 pointed out the missing implementation of existing international safety standards for nuclear power plants as also new aspects for nuclear safety. The main safety aspects in the aftermath of Fukushima are: robustness against internal and external impacts; sufficient safety margins; prolonged periods for safety measures; inherent and passive systems and mechanisms; enhanced independent operation of the plant in case of external failures; independent long-term supply with AC; accident management procedures; enhanced retention of radionuclides. Technologies for retrofit are available and are under implementation with respect to the demands and options in the countries using nuclear power.

  18. Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dikshit, Rajesh P; Yeole, B B; Nagrani, Rajini; Dhillon, P; Badwe, R; Bray, Freddie

    2012-08-01

    Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976-2005 and stratified them according to younger (25-49) and older age group (50-74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2-1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001-2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021-2025. The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. New trends in design and fabrication of signal and power cables to increase nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmen, Florin; Florescu, Gheorghe; Ionescu, Aurel

    2007-01-01

    Based on NPP operating experiences in the past, it was found that the inadequate management of aging degradation caused shortening of the lifetime of equipment, which in turn, hindered plant life extension. Aging degradation of plant structures and components should be properly managed to ensure the designated safety function of plant systems during design life and extended life. From a safety perspective, aging management means maintaining the aging degradation level in major equipment and structures below the allowable limit and holding the capacity to sustain abnormal operating condition. Cable aging was not considered as a significant factor in relation to the nuclear power plant maintenance due to its long life which is almost the same as the plant design life. Attempts to extend the lifetime of NPP has become one of the major concern in the nuclear industry world wide. Consequently, life evaluation and lifetime management of cables to survive over 40 years has become major topic of discussion. In connection to this, accelerated aging must be studied in detail in order to simulate the natural aging in NPP. Test results for evaluating aging degradation after accelerated aging of polyethylene jacket will be described herein.There are hundred types of cables in NPPs. These cables can be classified as medium/low voltage cable, low power cable, instrument and control cable, panel connect line cable, special cable, security line cable, phone line cable and ground cable. Insulation and jacket material in electrical cables are fabricated of polymer materials combined with a number of additives and filler to provide the required mechanical, electrical and fire retardant proprieties. The most commonly used insulation materials are XLPE/EPR/EPDM and PVC. PVC has been widely used as an insulation material, particularly in old plants, but it is less used in modern plants. Neoprene/CSPE/PVC are commonly used material for nuclear cable jacket. The old types of cables

  20. Predicting perceived safety to drive the morning after drinking: The importance of hangover symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Elaine; French, David P

    2016-07-01

    People driving the day after drinking are at risk of impaired performance and accidents due to continued intoxication or the effects of alcohol hangover. Drivers are poor at estimating their own blood alcohol concentration, and some drive despite believing they are over the legal limit. It is therefore important to identify other factors influencing perceived ability to drive 'the morning after'. This study tested how accurately participants estimated their legal driving status, and the contribution of beliefs and hangover symptoms to the prediction of perceived driving safety. This cross-sectional study involved 193 students completing a questionnaire and alcohol breath test the morning after heavy alcohol consumption. Indicators of subjective intoxication, severity of hangover symptoms, estimated legal status and perceived safety to drive were measured. A hierarchical linear regression analysis was conducted. No participants thought they were under the English legal limit when they were not, and 47% thought they were over the limit when they were in fact legally permissible to drive. However, 20% of those believing they were over the limit nevertheless rated themselves as safe to drive. Hangover symptoms added 17% variance to the prediction of perceived safety to drive, over and above objective and subjective measures of intoxication. Perceived severity of hangover symptoms influence beliefs about driving ability: When judging safety to drive, people experiencing less severe symptoms believe they are less impaired. If this finding is robust, health promotion campaigns should aim to correct this misapprehension. [Cameron E, French D. Predicting perceived safety to drive the morning after drinking: The importance of hangover symptoms. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:442-446]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  1. Validation of Monte Carlo predictions of LWR-PROTEUS safety parameters using an improved whole-reactor model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plaschy, M. [Laboratory for Reactor Physics and Systems Behaviour, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen, PSI (Switzerland)], E-mail: michael.plaschy@eos.ch; Murphy, M.; Jatuff, F.; Perret, G.; Seiler, R. [Laboratory for Reactor Physics and Systems Behaviour, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen, PSI (Switzerland); Chawla, R. [Laboratory for Reactor Physics and Systems Behaviour, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen, PSI (Switzerland); Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, EPFL (Switzerland)

    2009-10-15

    The recent experimental programme conducted in the PROTEUS research reactor at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) has concerned detailed investigations of advanced light water reactor (LWR) fuels. More than fifteen different configurations of the multi-zone critical facility have been studied, each of them requiring accurate estimation of operational safety parameters, in particular the critical driver loadings, shutdown rod worths and the effective delayed neutron fraction {beta}{sub eff}. The current paper presents a full-scale 3D Monte Carlo model for the facility, set up using the MCNPX code, which has been employed for calculation of the operational characteristics for seven different LWR-PROTEUS configurations. Thereby, a variety of nuclear data libraries (viz. ENDF/B6v2, ENDF/B6v8, JEF2.2, JEFF3.0, JEFF3.1, JENDL3.2, and JENDL3.3) have been used, and predictions of k{sub eff} and shutdown rod worths compared with experimental values. Even though certain library-specific trends have been observed, the k{sub eff} predictions are generally very satisfactory, viz. with discrepancies of <0.5% between calculation (C) and experiment (E). The results also confirm the consistent determination of reactivity variations, the C/E values for the shutdown (safety) rod worths being always within 5% of unity. In addition, the MCNP modelling of the multi-zone reactor has yielded interesting results for the delayed neutron fraction ({beta}{sub eff}) in the different configurations, a breakdown being made possible in each case in terms of delayed neutron group, fissioning nuclide, and reactor region.

  2. Have the Findings from Clinical Risk Prediction and Trials Any Key Messages for Safety Pharmacology?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jem D. Lane

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Anti-arrhythmic drugs are a mainstay in the management of symptoms related to arrhythmias, and are adjuncts in prevention and treatment of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. However, they also have the potential for pro-arrhythmia and thus the prediction of arrhythmia predisposition and drug response are critical issues. Clinical trials are the latter stages in the safety testing and efficacy process prior to market release, and as such serve as a critical safeguard. In this review, we look at some of the lessons to be learned from approaches to arrhythmia prediction in patients, clinical trials of drugs used in the treatment of arrhythmias, and the implications for the design of pre-clinical safety pharmacology testing.

  3. Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

    2017-06-01

    An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post

  4. Radiation safety and culture of prevention in the use of radioactive materials in industry : criteria and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truppa, Walter Adrian

    2008-01-01

    As time goes by and experience is gained, modernization and technological development show the need to implement more complex programs and procedures to ensure a high level of compliance with radiation safety, particularly in those activities in which radioactive material is used in industry. A relevant aspect of present technology is the concern to introduce mechanisms to prevent radiological accidents or incidents, to ensure early detection of failures. This includes systems that either individually or as a whole, increase the level of responsibility of the different disciplines involved, so as to avoid a situation that could lead to loss of control of the facility or part of it. The prevention of an abnormal situation, overexposure of workers or unwanted risks, should be considered in the level of vulnerability of the facility, a concept drawn from international protection systems and which is applied directly in radiation safety. Preventive management, risk communication and proposals for change or improvement along with the detection of risks and training, constitute all the factors contained within prevention policies. Dose limitation, optimization and justification, old tools used for decades, could not be replaced by other modern concepts and criteria. ALARA culture (including performance indicators) should be considered. The atmosphere at work, working under pressure as well as other factors such as quality issues, ethics of prevention, etc. align with this idea of prevention and safety, besides changes in attitude, towards risk prevention (methods, reports, intervention guides, working instructions, and any other helpful tool), are followed by preventive, as well as predictive and corrective maintenance, applied to minimize the dose absorbed by workers. A clear policy of prevention is needed as well as an appropriate level of radiation safety which should be taken into account since the very beginning of the development of a given practice. All these

  5. Radiation Safety and Culture of Prevention in the Use of Radioactive Materials in Industry. Criteria and Trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truppa, W.A.

    2011-01-01

    As time goes by and experience is gained, modernization and technological development show the need to implement more complex programs and procedures to ensure a high level of compliance with radiation safety, particularly in those activities in which radioactive material is used in industry. A relevant aspect of present technology is the concern to introduce mechanisms to prevent radiological accidents or incidents, to ensure early detection of failures. This includes systems that either individually or as a whole, increase the level of responsibility of the different disciplines involved, so as to avoid a situation that could lead to loss of control of the facility or part of it. The prevention of an abnormal situation, overexposure of workers or unwanted risks, should be considered in the level of vulnerability of the facility, a concept drawn from international protection systems and which is applied directly in radiation safety. Preventive management, risk communication and proposals for change or improvement along with the detection of risks and training, constitute all the factors contained within prevention policies. Dose limitation, optimization and justification, old tools used for decades, could not be replaced by other modern concepts and criteria. ALARA culture (including performance indicators) should be considered. The atmosphere at work, working under pressure as well as other factors such as quality issues, ethics of prevention, etc. align with this idea of prevention and safety, besides changes in attitude, towards risk prevention (methods, reports, intervention guides, working instructions, and any other helpful tool), are followed by preventive, as well as predictive and corrective maintenance, applied to minimize the dose absorbed by workers. A clear policy of prevention is needed as well as an appropriate level of radiation safety which should be taken into account since the very beginning of the development of a given practice. All these

  6. Safety analysis methodology with assessment of the impact of the prediction errors of relevant parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galia, A.V.

    2011-01-01

    The best estimate plus uncertainty approach (BEAU) requires the use of extensive resources and therefore it is usually applied for cases in which the available safety margin obtained with a conservative methodology can be questioned. Outside the BEAU methodology, there is not a clear approach on how to deal with the issue of considering the uncertainties resulting from prediction errors in the safety analyses performed for licensing submissions. However, the regulatory document RD-310 mentions that the analysis method shall account for uncertainties in the analysis data and models. A possible approach is presented, that is simple and reasonable, representing just the author's views, to take into account the impact of prediction errors and other uncertainties when performing safety analysis in line with regulatory requirements. The approach proposes taking into account the prediction error of relevant parameters. Relevant parameters would be those plant parameters that are surveyed and are used to initiate the action of a mitigating system or those that are representative of the most challenging phenomena for the integrity of a fission barrier. Examples of the application of the methodology are presented involving a comparison between the results with the new approach and a best estimate calculation during the blowdown phase for two small breaks in a generic CANDU 6 station. The calculations are performed with the CATHENA computer code. (author)

  7. How the choice of safety performance function affects the identification of important crash prediction variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ketong; Simandl, Jenna K; Porter, Michael D; Graettinger, Andrew J; Smith, Randy K

    2016-03-01

    Across the nation, researchers and transportation engineers are developing safety performance functions (SPFs) to predict crash rates and develop crash modification factors to improve traffic safety at roadway segments and intersections. Generalized linear models (GLMs), such as Poisson or negative binomial regression, are most commonly used to develop SPFs with annual average daily traffic as the primary roadway characteristic to predict crashes. However, while more complex to interpret, data mining models such as boosted regression trees have improved upon GLMs crash prediction performance due to their ability to handle more data characteristics, accommodate non-linearities, and include interaction effects between the characteristics. An intersection data inventory of 36 safety relevant parameters for three- and four-legged non-signalized intersections along state routes in Alabama was used to study the importance of intersection characteristics on crash rate and the interaction effects between key characteristics. Four different SPFs were investigated and compared: Poisson regression, negative binomial regression, regularized generalized linear model, and boosted regression trees. The models did not agree on which intersection characteristics were most related to the crash rate. The boosted regression tree model significantly outperformed the other models and identified several intersection characteristics as having strong interaction effects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Effects of MHRA drug safety advice on time trends in prescribing volume and indices of clinical toxicity for quinine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acheampong, Paul; Cooper, Gill; Khazaeli, Behshad; Lupton, David J; White, Sue; May, Margaret T; Thomas, Simon H L

    2013-01-01

    Aims To ascertain the effects of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's (MHRA) safety update in June 2010 on the volume of prescribing of quinine and on indices of quinine toxicity. Methods We analysed quarterly primary care total and quinine prescribing data for England and quinine prescribing volume for individual Primary Care Trusts in the North East of England from 2007/8 to 2011/12 obtained from the ePACT.net database. We also analysed quinine toxicity enquiries to the National Poisons Information Service (NPIS) via Toxbase® and by telephone between 2004/5 and 2011/12. Joinpoint regression and Pearson's correlation tests were used to ascertain changes in trends in prescribing and indices of toxicity and associations between prescribing and indices of toxicity, respectively. Results Total prescribing continued to increase, but annual growth in quinine prescribing in England declined from 6.0 to −0.6% following the MHRA update [difference −0.04 (95% confidence interval −0.07 to −0.01) quinine prescriptions per 100 patients per quarter, P = 0.0111]. Much larger reductions were observed in Primary Care Trusts that introduced comprehensive prescribing reviews. The previously increasing trend in Toxbase® quinine searches was reversed [difference −19.76 (95% confidence interval −39.28 to −9.20) user sessions per quarter, P = 0.0575]. Telephone enquiries to NPIS for quinine have declined, with stabilization of the proportion of moderate to severe cases of quinine poisoning since the update. Conclusions The MHRA advice was followed by limited reductions in the growth in quinine prescribing and in indicators of quinine overdose and toxicity. Quinine prescribing, however, remains common, and further efforts are needed to reduce availability and use. PMID:23594200

  9. Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    A brief account of activities carried out by the Nuclear power plants Jaslovske Bohunice in 1997 is presented. These activities are reported under the headings: (1) Nuclear safety; (2) Industrial and health safety; (3) Radiation safety; and Fire protection

  10. The use of the Hurst exponent to predict changes in trends on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domino, Krzysztof

    2011-01-01

    The local properties of the time series of the evolution of share prices of 126 significant companies traded on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the period between 1991-2008 have been investigated. The analysis was applied to daily financial returns. I have used the local DFA to obtain the Hurst exponent (diffusion coefficient) while searching for negative correlations by which changes of long-term trends would be effected. A certain evidence, proving that after the signature of anti-correlation-the drop in the Hurst exponent-the change in the trend and in the return rate of an investment is probable, was pointed out. Hence after further investigation this method may be useful as a part of an investment strategy. As the Warsaw Stock Exchange is relatively smaller and younger than other significant world Stock Exchanges-and as the developing market is less efficient-the generalization for others markets needs further investigation.

  11. Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramesh Rajagopalan

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

  12. Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajagopalan, Ramesh; Litvan, Irene; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

    2017-11-01

    Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems.

  13. Prediction of time trends in recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Kay; Ingebrigtsen, Tor; Wilsgaard, Tom

    2009-01-01

    . There was significant improvement of performance after 6 months. APOE-epsilon4 genotype was the only independent factor significantly predicting less improvement. CONCLUSION: The presence of the APOE-epsilon4 allele predicts less recovery of cognitive function after mild head injury....... change. RESULTS: A Glasgow Coma Scale score of less than 15, traumatic brain injury demonstrated with computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and serum S-100B greater than 0.14 microg/L predicted impaired cognitive performance both at baseline and after 6 months; APOE genotype did not...

  14. The patient's safety and access to experimental drugs after the termination of clinical trials: regulations and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Ricardo Eccard; Amato, Angélica Amorim; Sousa, Thiago do Rego; de Carvalho, Marta Rodrigues; Novaes, Maria Rita Carvalho Garbi

    2018-05-12

    Participants' rights and safety must be guaranteed not only while a clinical trial is being conducted but also when a clinical trial finishes. The criteria for post-trial access to experimental drugs, however, are unclear in various countries. The objectives of this study were (i) to ascertain if there were regulations or guidelines related to patients' access to drugs after the end of clinical trials in the countries selected in the study and (ii) to analyze trends in post-trial access in countries classified by their level of economic development. This study is a retrospective review. The data are from the records of clinical trials from 2014 registered in the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) database. Among the countries selected, provision of drugs post-trial is mandatory only in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Finland, and Peru. The plans for post-trial access tend to be more present in low- and middle-income and upper middle-income countries, in comparison with high-income countries. Studies involving vulnerable populations are 2.53 times more likely to have plans for post-trial access than studies which do not. The guaranteeing of post-trial access remains mandatory in few countries. Considering that individuals seen as vulnerable have been included in clinical trials without plans for post-trial access, stakeholders must discuss the need to develop regulations mandating the guaranteeing of post-trial access in specified situations.

  15. Psychosocial safety climate moderates the job demand-resource interaction in predicting workgroup distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dollard, Maureen F; Tuckey, Michelle R; Dormann, Christian

    2012-03-01

    Psychosocial safety climate (PSC) arises from workplace policies, practices, and procedures for the protection of worker psychological health and safety that are largely driven by management. Many work stress theories are based on the fundamental interaction hypothesis - that a high level of job demands (D) will lead to psychological distress and that this relationship will be offset when there are high job resources (R). However we proposed that this interaction really depends on the organizational context; in particular high levels of psychosocial safety climate will enable the safe utilization of resources to reduce demands. The study sample consisted of police constables from 23 police units (stations) with longitudinal survey responses at two time points separated by 14 months (Time 1, N=319, Time 2, N=139). We used hierarchical linear modeling to assess the effect of the proposed three-way interaction term (PSC×D×R) on change in workgroup distress variance over time. Specifically we confirmed the interaction between emotional demands and emotional resources (assessed at the individual level), in the context of unit psychosocial safety climate (aggregated individual data). As predicted, high emotional resources moderated the positive relationship between emotional demands and change in workgroup distress but only when there were high levels of unit psychosocial safety climate. Results were confirmed using a split-sample analysis. Results support psychosocial safety climate as a property of the organization and a target for higher order controls for reducing work stress. The 'right' climate enables resources to do their job. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Conceptual Software Reliability Prediction Models for Nuclear Power Plant Safety Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, G.; Lawrence, D.; Yu, H.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this project is to develop a method to predict the potential reliability of software to be used in a digital system instrumentation and control system. The reliability prediction is to make use of existing measures of software reliability such as those described in IEEE Std 982 and 982.2. This prediction must be of sufficient accuracy to provide a value for uncertainty that could be used in a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For the purposes of the project, reliability was defined to be the probability that the digital system will successfully perform its intended safety function (for the distribution of conditions under which it is expected to respond) upon demand with no unintended functions that might affect system safety. The ultimate objective is to use the identified measures to develop a method for predicting the potential quantitative reliability of a digital system. The reliability prediction models proposed in this report are conceptual in nature. That is, possible prediction techniques are proposed and trial models are built, but in order to become a useful tool for predicting reliability, the models must be tested, modified according to the results, and validated. Using methods outlined by this project, models could be constructed to develop reliability estimates for elements of software systems. This would require careful review and refinement of the models, development of model parameters from actual experience data or expert elicitation, and careful validation. By combining these reliability estimates (generated from the validated models for the constituent parts) in structural software models, the reliability of the software system could then be predicted. Modeling digital system reliability will also require that methods be developed for combining reliability estimates for hardware and software. System structural models must also be developed in order to predict system reliability based upon the reliability

  17. Current limitations of trend curve analysis for the prediction of reactor PV embrittlement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gold, R.; McElroy, W.N.

    1986-02-01

    In operating light water reactor (LWR) commercial power plants, neutron radiation induces embrittlement of the pressure vessel (PV) and its support structures. As a consequence, LWR-PV integrity is a primary safety consideration. LWR-PV integrity is a significant economic consideration since the PV and its support structures are nonreplaceable power plant components and embrittlement of these components can therefore limit the effective operating lifetime of the plant

  18. Temporal Trends and Future Predictions of Mercury Concentrations in Northwest Greenland Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Hair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, Rune; Born, E.W.; Riget, Frank Farsø

    2011-01-01

    -2008 concentrations ofHg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call......Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafterHg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly...

  19. Long-term aerosol climatology over Indo-Gangetic Plain: Trend, prediction and potential source fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M.; Parmar, K. S.; Kumar, D. B.; Mhawish, A.; Broday, D. M.; Mall, R. K.; Banerjee, T.

    2018-05-01

    Long-term aerosol climatology is derived using Terra MODIS (Collection 6) enhanced Deep Blue (DB) AOD retrieval algorithm to investigate decadal trend (2006-2015) in columnar aerosol loading, future scenarios and potential source fields over the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), South Asia. Satellite based aerosol climatology was analyzed in two contexts: for the entire IGP considering area weighted mean AOD and for nine individual stations located at upper (Karachi, Multan, Lahore), central (Delhi, Kanpur, Varanasi, Patna) and lower IGP (Kolkata, Dhaka). A comparatively high aerosol loading (AOD: 0.50 ± 0.25) was evident over IGP with a statistically insignificant increasing trend of 0.002 year-1. Analysis highlights the existing spatial and temporal gradients in aerosol loading with stations over central IGP like Varanasi (decadal mean AOD±SD; 0.67 ± 0.28) and Patna (0.65 ± 0.30) exhibit the highest AOD, followed by stations over lower IGP (Kolkata: 0.58 ± 0.21; Dhaka: 0.60 ± 0.24), with a statistically significant increasing trend (0.0174-0.0206 year-1). In contrast, stations over upper IGP reveal a comparatively low aerosol loading, having an insignificant increasing trend. Variation in AOD across IGP is found to be mainly influenced by seasonality and topography. A distinct "aerosol pool" region over eastern part of Ganges plain is identified, where meteorology, topography, and aerosol sources favor the persistence of airborne particulates. A strong seasonality in aerosol loading and types is also witnessed, with high AOD and dominance of fine particulates over central to lower IGP, especially during post-monsoon and winter. The time series analyses by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) indicate contrasting patterns in randomness of AOD over individual stations with better performance especially over central IGP. Concentration weighted trajectory analyses identify the crucial contributions of western dry regions and partial contributions from

  20. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T

    2011-07-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  1. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W.; Machado, Marcelo D.

    2011-01-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  2. Tool Sequence Trends in Minimally Invasive Surgery: Statistical Analysis and Implications for Predictive Control of Multifunction Instruments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl A. Nelson

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of 67 minimally invasive surgical procedures covering 11 different procedure types to determine patterns of tool use. A new graph-theoretic approach was taken to organize and analyze the data. Through grouping surgeries by type, trends of common tool changes were identified. Using the concept of signal/noise ratio, these trends were found to be statistically strong. The tool-use trends were used to generate tool placement patterns for modular (multi-tool, cartridge-type surgical tool systems, and the same 67 surgeries were numerically simulated to determine the optimality of these tool arrangements. The results indicate that aggregated tool-use data (by procedure type can be employed to predict tool-use sequences with good accuracy, and also indicate the potential for artificial intelligence as a means of preoperative and/or intraoperative planning. Furthermore, this suggests that the use of multifunction surgical tools can be optimized to streamline surgical workflow.

  3. Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, Mario; Freitas, Raul; Crespi, Antonio L.; Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, Joao Alexandre

    2011-01-01

    This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: → Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. → Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. → Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.→ Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.→ Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

  4. Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com [Herbarium, UTAD Botanical Garden, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com [Herbarium, UTAD Botanical Garden, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Department of Forest and Landscape, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, Joao Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal)

    2011-10-15

    This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

  5. Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferro, Ana; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bosetti, Cristina; Bertuccio, Paola; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

    2014-05-01

    Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prediction of Golden Time for Recovering the Safety Injection System in Severe LOCA Circumstances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Kim, Dong Young; Choi, Geon Pil; Back, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the core uncovery and RV failure according to LOCA break sizes were analyzed by using the MAAP4 code when safety injection system (SIS) was not operating normally. We predicted the golden time of SIS recovery for accomplishing the reactor cold shutdown and preventing RV failure. MAAP4 code was used for severe accident analysis. The LOCA simulations were performed with break size in order to predict the golden time to recovery SIS. We predicted the golden time according to the SIS operation cases through the simulation of OPR1000. When LOCA occurred, the normal operation of SIS is very important in maintaining the integrity of NPPs. However if the SIS does not work or its actuation is delayed due to failure of the equipment, the DBA will lead to a severe accident. In this study, accident situations that SIS does not work normally were assumed and a number of MAAP4 code simulations were conducted. In addition, core uncovery time and RV failure time were predicted. If the recovery time of SIS for accident recovery is predicted, the core will not be exposed through appropriate action

  7. Current state of nuclear fuel cycles in nuclear engineering and trends in their development according to the environmental safety requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vislov, I. S.; Pischulin, V. P.; Kladiev, S. N.; Slobodyan, S. M.

    2016-08-01

    The state and trends in the development of nuclear fuel cycles in nuclear engineering, taking into account the ecological aspects of using nuclear power plants, are considered. An analysis of advantages and disadvantages of nuclear engineering, compared with thermal engineering based on organic fuel types, was carried out. Spent nuclear fuel (SNF) reprocessing is an important task in the nuclear industry, since fuel unloaded from modern reactors of any type contains a large amount of radioactive elements that are harmful to the environment. On the other hand, the newly generated isotopes of uranium and plutonium should be reused to fabricate new nuclear fuel. The spent nuclear fuel also includes other types of fission products. Conditions for SNF handling are determined by ecological and economic factors. When choosing a certain handling method, one should assess these factors at all stages of its implementation. There are two main methods of SNF handling: open nuclear fuel cycle, with spent nuclear fuel assemblies (NFAs) that are held in storage facilities with their consequent disposal, and closed nuclear fuel cycle, with separation of uranium and plutonium, their purification from fission products, and use for producing new fuel batches. The development of effective closed fuel cycles using mixed uranium-plutonium fuel can provide a successful development of the nuclear industry only under the conditions of implementation of novel effective technological treatment processes that meet strict requirements of environmental safety and reliability of process equipment being applied. The diversity of technological processes is determined by different types of NFA devices and construction materials being used, as well as by the composition that depends on nuclear fuel components and operational conditions for assemblies in the nuclear power reactor. This work provides an overview of technological processes of SNF treatment and methods of handling of nuclear fuel

  8. Spatiotemporal trends in Canadian domestic wild boar production and habitat predict wild pig distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michel, Nicole; Laforge, Michel; van Beest, Floris

    2017-01-01

    eradication of wild pigs is rarely feasible after establishment over large areas, effective management will depend on strengthening regulations and enforcement of containment practices for Canadian domestic wild boar farms. Initiation of coordinated provincial and federal efforts to implement population...... wild boar and test the propagule pressure hypothesis to improve predictive ability of an existing habitat-based model of wild pigs. We reviewed spatiotemporal patterns in domestic wild boar production across ten Canadian provinces during 1991–2011 and evaluated the ability of wild boar farm...... distribution to improve predictive models of wild pig occurrence using a resource selection probability function for wild pigs in Saskatchewan. Domestic wild boar production in Canada increased from 1991 to 2001 followed by sharp declines in all provinces. The distribution of domestic wild boar farms in 2006...

  9. Predicting decadal trends and transient responses of radiocarbon storage and fluxes in a temperate forest soil

    OpenAIRE

    Sierra, C. A.; Trumbore, S. E.; Davidson, E. A.; Frey, S. D.; Savage, K. E.; Hopkins, F. M.

    2012-01-01

    Representing the response of soil carbon dynamics to global environmental change requires the incorporation of multiple tools in the development of predictive models. An important tool to construct and test models is the incorporation of bomb radiocarbon in soil organic matter during the past decades. In this manuscript, we combined radiocarbon data and a previously developed empirical model to explore decade-scale soil carbon dyn...

  10. The Human Bathtub: Safety and Risk Predictions Including the Dynamic Probability of Operator Errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duffey, Romney B.; Saull, John W.

    2006-01-01

    Reactor safety and risk are dominated by the potential and major contribution for human error in the design, operation, control, management, regulation and maintenance of the plant, and hence to all accidents. Given the possibility of accidents and errors, now we need to determine the outcome (error) probability, or the chance of failure. Conventionally, reliability engineering is associated with the failure rate of components, or systems, or mechanisms, not of human beings in and interacting with a technological system. The probability of failure requires a prior knowledge of the total number of outcomes, which for any predictive purposes we do not know or have. Analysis of failure rates due to human error and the rate of learning allow a new determination of the dynamic human error rate in technological systems, consistent with and derived from the available world data. The basis for the analysis is the 'learning hypothesis' that humans learn from experience, and consequently the accumulated experience defines the failure rate. A new 'best' equation has been derived for the human error, outcome or failure rate, which allows for calculation and prediction of the probability of human error. We also provide comparisons to the empirical Weibull parameter fitting used in and by conventional reliability engineering and probabilistic safety analysis methods. These new analyses show that arbitrary Weibull fitting parameters and typical empirical hazard function techniques cannot be used to predict the dynamics of human errors and outcomes in the presence of learning. Comparisons of these new insights show agreement with human error data from the world's commercial airlines, the two shuttle failures, and from nuclear plant operator actions and transient control behavior observed in transients in both plants and simulators. The results demonstrate that the human error probability (HEP) is dynamic, and that it may be predicted using the learning hypothesis and the minimum

  11. Comparison of in-plant performance test data with analytic prediction of reactor safety system injection transient (U)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, B.N.; Neill, C.H. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    This paper compares the performance test data from injection transients for both of the subsystems of the Supplementary Safety System of the Savannah River Site production reactor with analytical predictions from an in-house thermal hydraulic computer code. The code was initially developed for design validation of the new Supplementary Safety System subsystem, but is shown to be equally capable of predicting the performance of the Supplementary Safety System existing subsystem even though the two subsystem transient injections have marked differences. The code itself was discussed and its validation using prototypic tests with simulated fluids was reported in an earlier paper (Roy and Nomm 1991)

  12. Temporal trends and future predictions of mercury concentrations in Northwest Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) hair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, R; Born, E W; Rigét, F; Aubail, A; Sonne, C; Drimmie, R; Basu, N

    2011-02-15

    Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafter Hg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p polar bear Hg exposure is 95.6-96.2% anthropogenic in its origin. Assuming a continued anthropogenic increase, this model estimated concentrations in 2050 and 2100 will be 40- and 92-fold the baseline concentration, respectively, which is equivalent to a 97.5 and 98.9% man-made contribution. None of the 2001-2008 concentrations of Hg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call for detailed effect studies in main target organs such as brain, liver, kidney, and sexual organs in the Northwest Greenland polar bears.

  13. Improved Performance and Safety for High Energy Batteries Through Use of Hazard Anticipation and Capacity Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwater, Terrill

    1993-01-01

    Prediction of the capacity remaining in used high rate, high energy batteries is important information to the user. Knowledge of the capacity remaining in used batteries results in better utilization. This translates into improved readiness and cost savings due to complete, efficient use. High rate batteries, due to their chemical nature, are highly sensitive to misuse (i.e., over discharge or very high rate discharge). Battery failure due to misuse or manufacturing defects could be disastrous. Since high rate, high energy batteries are expensive and energetic, a reliable method of predicting both failures and remaining energy has been actively sought. Due to concerns over safety, the behavior of lithium/sulphur dioxide cells at different temperatures and current drains was examined. The main thrust of this effort was to determine failure conditions for incorporation in hazard anticipation circuitry. In addition, capacity prediction formulas have been developed from test data. A process that performs continuous, real-time hazard anticipation and capacity prediction was developed. The introduction of this process into microchip technology will enable the production of reliable, safe, and efficient high energy batteries.

  14. An integrated Modelling framework to monitor and predict trends of agricultural management (iMSoil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Armin; Della Peruta, Raneiro; Schaepman, Michael; Gomez, Marta; Mann, Stefan; Schulin, Rainer

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural systems lay at the interface between natural ecosystems and the anthroposphere. Various drivers induce pressures on the agricultural systems, leading to changes in farming practice. The limitation of available land and the socio-economic drivers are likely to result in further intensification of agricultural land management, with implications on fertilization practices, soil and pest management, as well as crop and livestock production. In order to steer the development into desired directions, tools are required by which the effects of these pressures on agricultural management and resulting impacts on soil functioning can be detected as early as possible, future scenarios predicted and suitable management options and policies defined. In this context, the use of integrated models can play a major role in providing long-term predictions of soil quality and assessing the sustainability of agricultural soil management. Significant progress has been made in this field over the last decades. Some of these integrated modelling frameworks include biophysical parameters, but often the inherent characteristics and detailed processes of the soil system have been very simplified. The development of such tools has been hampered in the past by a lack of spatially explicit soil and land management information at regional scale. The iMSoil project, funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation in the national research programme NRP68 "soil as a resource" (www.nrp68.ch) aims at developing and implementing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) which can overcome the limitations mentioned above, by combining socio-economic, agricultural land management, and biophysical models, in order to predict the long-term impacts of different socio-economic scenarios on the soil quality. In our presentation we briefly outline the approach that is based on an interdisciplinary modular framework that builds on already existing monitoring tools and model components that are

  15. The useful field of view assessment predicts simulated commercial motor vehicle driving safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McManus, Benjamin; Heaton, Karen; Vance, David E; Stavrinos, Despina

    2016-10-02

    The Useful Field of View (UFOV) assessment, a measure of visual speed of processing, has been shown to be a predictive measure of motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement in an older adult population, but it remains unknown whether UFOV predicts commercial motor vehicle (CMV) driving safety during secondary task engagement. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the UFOV assessment predicts simulated MVCs in long-haul CMV drivers. Fifty licensed CMV drivers (Mage = 39.80, SD = 8.38, 98% male, 56% Caucasian) were administered the 3-subtest version of the UFOV assessment, where lower scores measured in milliseconds indicated better performance. CMV drivers completed 4 simulated drives, each spanning approximately a 22.50-mile distance. Four secondary tasks were presented to participants in a counterbalanced order during the drives: (a) no secondary task, (b) cell phone conversation, (c) text messaging interaction, and (d) e-mailing interaction with an on-board dispatch device. The selective attention subtest significantly predicted simulated MVCs regardless of secondary task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC in the simulated drive. The e-mail interaction secondary task significantly predicted simulated MVCs with a 4.14 times greater risk of an MVC compared to the no secondary task condition. Subtest 3, a measure of visual speed of processing, significantly predicted MVCs in the email interaction task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC during the email interaction task. The UFOV subtest 3 may be a promising measure to identify CMV drivers who may be at risk for MVCs or in need of cognitive training aimed at improving speed of processing. Subtest 3 may also identify CMV drivers who are particularly at risk when engaged in secondary tasks while driving.

  16. Indicators for traffic safety assessment and prediction and their application in micro-simulation modelling : a study of urban and suburban intersections

    OpenAIRE

    Archer, Jeffery

    2005-01-01

    In order to achieve sustainable long-term transport infrastructure development, there is a growing need for fast, reliable and effective methods to evaluate and predict the impact of traffic safety measures. Recognising this need, and the need for an active traffic safety approach, this thesis focuses on traffic safety assessment and prediction based on the use of safety indicators that measure the spatial and/or temporal proximity of safety critical events. The main advantage of such measure...

  17. Clearance Prediction Methodology Needs Fundamental Improvement: Trends Common to Rat and Human Hepatocytes/Microsomes and Implications for Experimental Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, F L; Houston, J B; Hallifax, D

    2017-11-01

    Although prediction of clearance using hepatocytes and liver microsomes has long played a decisive role in drug discovery, it is widely acknowledged that reliably accurate prediction is not yet achievable despite the predominance of hepatically cleared drugs. Physiologically mechanistic methodology tends to underpredict clearance by several fold, and empirical correction of this bias is confounded by imprecision across drugs. Understanding the causes of prediction uncertainty has been slow, possibly reflecting poor resolution of variables associated with donor source and experimental methods, particularly for the human situation. It has been reported that among published human hepatocyte predictions there was a tendency for underprediction to increase with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, suggesting an inherent limitation using this particular system. This implied an artifactual rate limitation in vitro, although preparative effects on cell stability and performance were not yet resolved from assay design limitations. Here, to resolve these issues further, we present an up-to-date and comprehensive examination of predictions from published rat as well as human studies (where n = 128 and 101 hepatocytes and n = 71 and 83 microsomes, respectively) to assess system performance more independently. We report a clear trend of increasing underprediction with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, which is similar both between species and between in vitro systems. Hence, prior concerns arising specifically from human in vitro systems may be unfounded and the focus of investigation in the future should be to minimize the potential in vitro assay limitations common to whole cells and subcellular fractions. Copyright © 2017 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  18. SAFETY

    CERN Multimedia

    Niels Dupont

    2013-01-01

    CERN Safety rules and Radiation Protection at CMS The CERN Safety rules are defined by the Occupational Health & Safety and Environmental Protection Unit (HSE Unit), CERN’s institutional authority and central Safety organ attached to the Director General. In particular the Radiation Protection group (DGS-RP1) ensures that personnel on the CERN sites and the public are protected from potentially harmful effects of ionising radiation linked to CERN activities. The RP Group fulfils its mandate in collaboration with the CERN departments owning or operating sources of ionising radiation and having the responsibility for Radiation Safety of these sources. The specific responsibilities concerning "Radiation Safety" and "Radiation Protection" are delegated as follows: Radiation Safety is the responsibility of every CERN Department owning radiation sources or using radiation sources put at its disposition. These Departments are in charge of implementing the requi...

  19. Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

    2014-12-01

    The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

  20. Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

    2007-06-01

    With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

  1. Predicting the role of veterinary medicine in future health and food safety challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fejzić, N.; Šerić-Haračić, S.

    2017-09-01

    Animals have always been a source of food, materials, protection and wellbeing for humans; however, animal diseases, including zoonoses, have both direct and indirect negative effects on human health, economy and the society. Since its establishment, the veterinary profession has provided crucial input in eradicating disease, increasing animal production and reducing losses due to diseases. Currently, foodborne diseases and zoonoses have raised awareness in developed countries, which have excellent systems for disease surveillance and reporting both in humans and animal populations. Due to lack of modern, integrated surveillance and reporting, the burden of zoonoses and foodborne diseases in developing European countries is much harder to assess. Differences in countries’ animal health status (demonstrated through disease surveillance) have been a main pivot point for international trade of animals and animal products. However, rapid and dramatic evolvement of the health trends in the world changed the principles of animal disease surveillance. Approaches requiring lower cost (i.e. risk-based surveillance) are now proposed, not only due to less available public funding, but also because the costs are harder to justify to policy makers if a disease is exotic and/or rare. Therefore, the veterinary profession has faced insufficient interest of governments and funds for further research into many persistent endemic animal diseases and zoonoses. On the other hand, eradication of selected diseases in some areas while elsewhere they still persist, and the continuous emergence of new diseases, cannot guarantee permanent epidemiological stability. As food safety and security become more important, global trends and events have highlighted the biological, health and economic inseparability of the relationships between humans, animals as pets and/or food sources and wildlife within the social and ecological framework of living space that these species share. Veterinarians

  2. Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

    2018-01-01

    Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

  3. Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    This annual report of the Senior Inspector for the Nuclear Safety, analyses the nuclear safety at EDF for the year 1999 and proposes twelve subjects of consideration to progress. Five technical documents are also provided and discussed concerning the nuclear power plants maintenance and safety (thermal fatigue, vibration fatigue, assisted control and instrumentation of the N4 bearing, 1300 MW reactors containment and time of life of power plants). (A.L.B.)

  4. Predicting fatigue and psychophysiological test performance from speech for safety critical environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khan Richard Baykaner

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Automatic systems for estimating operator fatigue have application in safety-critical environments. A system which could estimate level of fatigue from speech would have application in domains where operators engage in regular verbal communication as part of their duties. Previous studies on the prediction of fatigue from speech have been limited because of their reliance on subjective ratings and because they lack comparison to other methods for assessing fatigue. In this paper we present an analysis of voice recordings and psychophysiological test scores collected from seven aerospace personnel during a training task in which they remained awake for 60 hours. We show that voice features and test scores are affected by both the total time spent awake and the time position within each subject’s circadian cycle. However, we show that time spent awake and time of day information are poor predictors of the test results; while voice features can give good predictions of the psychophysiological test scores and sleep latency. Mean absolute errors of prediction are possible within about 17.5% for sleep latency and 5-12% for test scores. We discuss the implications for the use of voice as a means to monitor the effects of fatigue on cognitive performance in practical applications.

  5. Predicting decadal trends in cloud droplet number concentration using reanalysis and satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Daniel T.; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Mohrmann, Johannes K.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Wood, Robert; Field, Paul R.

    2018-02-01

    Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the key state variable that moderates the relationship between aerosol and the radiative forcing arising from aerosol-cloud interactions. Uncertainty related to the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud properties represents the largest uncertainty in total anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here we show that regionally averaged time series of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed CDNC of low, liquid-topped clouds is well predicted by the MERRA2 reanalysis near-surface sulfate mass concentration over decadal timescales. A multiple linear regression between MERRA2 reanalyses masses of sulfate (SO4), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sea salt (SS), and dust (DU) shows that CDNC across many different regimes can be reproduced by a simple power-law fit to near-surface SO4, with smaller contributions from BC, OC, SS, and DU. This confirms previous work using a less sophisticated retrieval of CDNC on monthly timescales. The analysis is supported by an examination of remotely sensed sulfur dioxide (SO2) over maritime volcanoes and the east coasts of North America and Asia, revealing that maritime CDNC responds to changes in SO2 as observed by the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI). This investigation of aerosol reanalysis and top-down remote-sensing observations reveals that emission controls in Asia and North America have decreased CDNC in their maritime outflow on a decadal timescale.

  6. Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

  7. Trends in Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    School Planning & Management, 2002

    2002-01-01

    Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

  8. Developmental trends in auditory processing can provide early predictions of language acquisition in young infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chonchaiya, Weerasak; Tardif, Twila; Mai, Xiaoqin; Xu, Lin; Li, Mingyan; Kaciroti, Niko; Kileny, Paul R; Shao, Jie; Lozoff, Betsy

    2013-03-01

    Auditory processing capabilities at the subcortical level have been hypothesized to impact an individual's development of both language and reading abilities. The present study examined whether auditory processing capabilities relate to language development in healthy 9-month-old infants. Participants were 71 infants (31 boys and 40 girls) with both Auditory Brainstem Response (ABR) and language assessments. At 6 weeks and/or 9 months of age, the infants underwent ABR testing using both a standard hearing screening protocol with 30 dB clicks and a second protocol using click pairs separated by 8, 16, and 64-ms intervals presented at 80 dB. We evaluated the effects of interval duration on ABR latency and amplitude elicited by the second click. At 9 months, language development was assessed via parent report on the Chinese Communicative Development Inventory - Putonghua version (CCDI-P). Wave V latency z-scores of the 64-ms condition at 6 weeks showed strong direct relationships with Wave V latency in the same condition at 9 months. More importantly, shorter Wave V latencies at 9 months showed strong relationships with the CCDI-P composite consisting of phrases understood, gestures, and words produced. Likewise, infants who had greater decreases in Wave V latencies from 6 weeks to 9 months had higher CCDI-P composite scores. Females had higher language development scores and shorter Wave V latencies at both ages than males. Interestingly, when the ABR Wave V latencies at both ages were taken into account, the direct effects of gender on language disappeared. In conclusion, these results support the importance of low-level auditory processing capabilities for early language acquisition in a population of typically developing young infants. Moreover, the auditory brainstem response in this paradigm shows promise as an electrophysiological marker to predict individual differences in language development in young children. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  9. Study of the Continuous Improvement Trend for Health, Safety and Environmental Indicators, after Establishment of Integrated Management System (IMS) in a Pharmaceutical Industry in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariouryad, Pegah; Golbabaei, Farideh; Nasiri, Parvin; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Marioryad, Hossein

    2015-10-01

    Nowadays, organizations try to improve their services and consequently adopt management systems and standards which have become key parts in various industries. One of these management systems which have been noticed in the recent years is Integrated Management System that is the combination of quality, health, safety and environment management systems. This study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the improvement trend after establishment of integrated management system for health, safety and environment indicators, in a pharmaceutical industry in Iran. First, during several inspections in different parts of the industry, indicators that should have been noted were listed and then these indicators were organized in 3 domains of health, safety and environment in the form of a questionnaire that followed Likert method of scaling. Also, the weight of each index was resulted from averaging out of 30 managers and the viewpoints of the related experts in the field. Moreover, by checking the documents and evidence of different years (5 contemplation years of this study), the score of each indicator was determined by multiplying the weight and score of the indices and were finally analysed. Over 5 years, scores of health scope indicators, increased from 161.99 to 202.23. Score in the first year after applying the integrated management system establishment was 172.37 in safety part and in the final year increased to 197.57. The changes of environmental scope rates, from the beginning of the program up to the last year increased from 49.24 to 64.27. Integrated management systems help organizations to improve programs to achieve their objectives. Although in this study all trends of health, safety and environmental indicator changes were positive, but at the same time showed to be slow. So, one can suggest that the result of an annual evaluation should be applied in planning future activities for the years ahead.

  10. Residential aged care in Auckland, New Zealand 1988-2008: do real trends over time match predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broad, Joanna B; Boyd, Michal; Kerse, Ngaire; Whitehead, Noeline; Chelimo, Carol; Lay-Yee, Roy; von Randow, Martin; Foster, Susan; Connolly, Martin J

    2011-07-01

    in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 7.7% of those aged over 65 years lived in licenced residential aged care. Age-specific rates approximately doubled for each 5-year age group after the age of 65 years. Even with changes in policies and market forces since 1988, population increases are forecast to drive large growth in demand. This study shows previously unrecognised 20-year trends in rates of care in a geographically defined population. four cross-sectional surveys of all facilities (rest homes and hospitals) licenced for long-term care of older people were conducted in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2008. Facility staff completed survey forms for each resident. Numbers of licenced and occupied beds and trends in age-specific and age-standardised rates in residential aged care are reported. over the 20-year period, Auckland's population aged over 65 years increased by 43% (from 91,000 to 130,000) but actual numbers in care reduced slightly. Among those aged over 65 years, the proportion living in care facilities reduced from 1 in 13 to 1 in 18. Age-standardised rates in rest-home level care reduced from 65 to 33 per thousand, and in hospital level care, from 29 to 23 per thousand. Had rates remained stable, over 13,200 people, 74% more than observed, would have been in care in 2008. growth predicted in the residential aged care sector is not yet evident. The introduction of standardised needs assessments before entry, increased availability of home-based services, and growth in retirement villages may have led to reduced utilisation.

  11. Predicting Drug Safety and Communicating Risk: Benefits of a Bayesian Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

    2018-03-01

    Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualizations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods.

  12. Prediction of safety critical software operational reliability from test reliability using testing environment factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    1999-01-01

    It has been a critical issue to predict the safety critical software reliability in nuclear engineering area. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there have been many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is however on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, from testing to operation, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are developed in this paper and used to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data in testing phase. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results show that the proposed method can estimate the operational reliability accurately. (Author). 14 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

  13. Trends in readmission rates for safety net hospitals and non-safety net hospitals in the era of the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program: a retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from 2008 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Amy M; Horwitz, Leora I; Kwon, Ji Young; Herrin, Jeph; Grady, Jacqueline N; Lin, Zhenqiu; Ross, Joseph S; Bernheim, Susannah M

    2017-07-13

    To compare trends in readmission rates among safety net and non-safety net hospitals under the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP). A retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from January 2008 to June 2015. We examined 3254 US hospitals eligible for penalties under the HRRP, categorised as safety net or non-safety net hospitals based on the hospital's proportion of patients with low socioeconomic status. Admissions for Medicare fee-for-service patients, age ≥65 years, discharged alive, who had a valid five-digit zip code and did not have a principal discharge diagnosis of cancer or psychiatric illness were included, for a total of 52 516 213 index admissions. Mean hospital-level, all-condition, 30-day risk-adjusted standardised unplanned readmission rate, measured quarterly, along with quarterly rate of change, and an interrupted time series examining: April-June 2010, after HRRP was passed, and October-December 2012, after HRRP penalties were implemented. 58.0% (SD 15.3) of safety net hospitals and 17.1% (SD 10.4) of non-safety net hospitals' patients were in the lowest quartile of socioeconomic status. The mean safety net hospital standardised readmission rate declined from 17.0% (SD 3.7) to 13.6% (SD 3.6), whereas the mean non-safety net hospital declined from 15.4% (SD 3.0) to 12.7% (SD 2.5). The absolute difference in rates between safety net and non-safety net hospitals declined from 1.6% (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9) to 0.9% (0.7 to 1.2). The quarterly decline in standardised readmission rates was 0.03 percentage points (95% CI 0.03 to 0.02, preadmission rates for safety net hospitals have decreased more rapidly than those for non-safety net hospitals. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  14. Developing a trend prediction model of subsurface damage for fixed-abrasive grinding of optics by cup wheels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhichao; Cheng, Haobo

    2016-11-10

    Fixed-abrasive grinding by cup wheels plays an important role in the production of precision optics. During cup wheel grinding, we strive for a large removal rate while maintaining fine integrity on the surface and subsurface layers (academically recognized as surface roughness and subsurface damage, respectively). This study develops a theoretical model used to predict the trend of subsurface damage of optics (with respect to various grinding parameters) in fixed-abrasive grinding by cup wheels. It is derived from the maximum undeformed chip thickness model, and it successfully correlates the pivotal parameters of cup wheel grinding with the subsurface damage depth. The efficiency of this model is then demonstrated by a set of experiments performed on a cup wheel grinding machine. In these experiments, the characteristics of subsurface damage are inspected by a wedge-polishing plus microscopic inspection method, revealing that the subsurface damage induced in cup wheel grinding is composed of craterlike morphologies and slender cracks, with depth ranging from ∼6.2 to ∼13.2  μm under the specified grinding parameters. With the help of the proposed model, an optimized grinding strategy is suggested for realizing fine subsurface integrity as well as high removal rate, which can alleviate the workload of subsequent lapping and polishing.

  15. Agenda Trending: Reciprocity and the Predictive Capacity of Social Networking Sites in Intermedia Agenda Setting across Topics over Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacob Groshek

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter. Time-series analyses of the most prominent topics identify the extent to which traditional media sets the agenda for social media as well as reciprocal agenda-setting effects of social media topics entering traditional media agendas. In addition, this study examines social intermedia agenda setting topically and across time within social networking sites, and in so doing, adds a vital understanding of where traditional media, online uses, and social media content intersect around instances of focusing events, particularly elections. Findings identify core differences between certain traditional and social media agendas, but also within social media agendas that extend from uses examined here. Additional results further suggest important topical and event-oriented limitations upon the predictive capacit of social networking sites to shape traditional media agendas over time.

  16. Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Corey L.; Wang, Ningning; Washington, Janique Tynez

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts…

  17. Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Patterson, Christopher C; Dahlquist, Gisela G; Gyürüs, Eva

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Eur...

  18. The Safety and Predictability of Implanting Autologous Lenticule Obtained by SMILE for Hyperopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Ling; Yao, Peijun; Li, Meiyan; Shen, Yang; Zhao, Jing; Zhou, Xingtao

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the safety, effectiveness, stability, and predictability of implanting autologous lenticules obtained from small incision lenticule extraction for the treatment of hyperopia. Five patients (10 eyes) with one myopic eye and one hyperopic eye were enrolled. The myopic eye was treated with small incision lenticule extraction; a lenticule was extracted and subsequently implanted in the hyperopic eye. Follow-up was at 1 day, 1, 3, 6, and 9 months, and 1 year postoperatively. Patients received a complete ophthalmologic examination at each visit, including uncorrected distance visual acuity, corrected distance visual acuity, anterior segment optical coherence tomography, and corneal topography. There were no complications in any eye during follow-up. Compared with preoperative levels, at the last follow-up visit the eyes with lenticule implantation showed mean spherical equivalent reduced by 5.53 diopters (residual spherical equivalent was +1.13 to -2.63 diopters), mean uncorrected distance visual acuity increased approximately two lines (approximately 20/63 to 20/40 Snellen), and corrected distance visual acuity in 4 (80%) eyes gained one line, 2 (40%) eyes gained two lines, and 1 (20%) eye gained more than two lines. There was no significant difference (P > .05) in spherical equivalent compared with 1 day postoperatively and the last follow-up visit. Corneal topography showed that the lenticule was uniform and located well; anterior segment optical coherence tomography images showed that the lenticule was transparent and the demarcation line was visible. Implanting an autologous lenticule obtained by small incision lenticule extraction for hyperopia might be safe, effective, and stable, but its predictability should be improved in the future. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

  19. Trends in pharmacy staff's perception of patient safety in Swedish community pharmacies after re-regulation of conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia; Nordén-Hägg, Annika

    2014-10-01

    All changes in the regulation of pharmacies have an impact on the work carried out in pharmacies and also on patient safety, regardless of whether this is the intention or not. To compare staff apprehension regarding some aspects of patient safety and quality in community pharmacies prior to and after the 2009 changes in regulation of the Swedish community pharmacy market. Questionnaires targeted at pharmacy staff before and after the changes in regulation (in 2008, 2011/12, and 2012/13 respectively) used four identical items, making comparisons of some aspects possible. All four items demonstrated a significant decrease in the first survey after the changes as compared to before. In the second survey significant differences were found on the two items representing safety climate whereas the items representing team climate and management showed no significant differences. The comparison carried out in this study indicates a negative effect in Swedish community pharmacies on safety and quality issues, as experienced by pharmacy staff. It is recommended that the possible effects of healthcare reforms are assessed before implementation, in order to counteract conceivable decline in factors including patient safety and working conditions.

  20. RepoTREND. The program package for the integrated long term safety analysis of final repository systems. Version 4.5 (State March 2016); RepoTREND. Das Programmpaket zur integrierten Langzeitsicherheitsanalyse von Endlagersystemen. Version 4.5 (Stand Maerz 2016)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reiche, Tatiana

    2016-04-15

    The long-term safety analysis is the analysis of final repository behavior after closure includes the spreading of pollutants into the biosphere (mobilization and release of pollutants into the near field, radionuclide migration through the geosphere, radiation exposure in the biosphere) and the radiological consequences. The report describes the program package RepoTREND, the respective modules (near field, GeoTREND, BioTREND and probabilistic analyses), sequencing and postprocessing and the quality management.

  1. Safety trends in small-scale coal mines in developing countries with particular reference to China, India and Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jadoon, K.G.; Akbar, S.; Edwards, J.S.

    2004-01-01

    Small-scale mining for coal is practiced all over the world. But major proportions of these mines are located in developing countries in Asia. China, India and Pakistan are the main producers of coal from small- scale mines. Due to prevailing poor safety conditions in these mines, a large number of workers receive injuries ranging from minor to fatal. Gas explosions/outbursts, roof falls, material handling, etc. are the main causes of majority of accidents occurring in small-scale mines. In China, thousands of workers are killed due to gas explosions/outbursts every year. Lack of financial resources, inadequate education and training of workers, contractual labour systems and lack of commitment to improve safety and health are the reasons that mainly contribute to the poor safety performance in this sector of mining. (author)

  2. Predicting Circulatory Diseases from Psychosocial Safety Climate: A Prospective Cohort Study from Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry Becher

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Circulatory diseases (CDs (including myocardial infarction, angina, stroke or hypertension are among the leading causes of death in the world. In this paper, we explore for the first time the impact of a specific aspect of organizational climate, Psychosocial Safety Climate (PSC, on CDs. We used two waves of interview data from Australia, with an average lag of 5 years (excluding baseline CDs, final n = 1223. Logistic regression was conducted to estimate the prospective associations between PSC at baseline on incident CDs at follow-up. It was found that participants in low PSC environments were 59% more likely to develop new CD than those in high PSC environments. Logistic regression showed that high PSC at baseline predicts lower CD risk at follow-up (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.00 and this risk remained unchanged even after additional adjustment for known job design risk factors (effort reward imbalance and job strain. These results suggest that PSC is an independent risk factor for CDs in Australia. Beyond job design this study implicates organizational climate and prevailing management values regarding worker psychological health as the genesis of CDs.

  3. A predictive control framework for torque-based steering assistance to improve safety in highway driving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, Ziya; Carvalho, Ashwin; Tseng, H. Eric; Gökaşan, Metin; Borrelli, Francesco

    2018-05-01

    Haptic shared control framework opens up new perspectives on the design and implementation of the driver steering assistance systems which provide torque feedback to the driver in order to improve safety. While designing such a system, it is important to account for the human-machine interactions since the driver feels the feedback torque through the hand wheel. The controller should consider the driver's impact on the steering dynamics to achieve a better performance in terms of driver's acceptance and comfort. In this paper we present a predictive control framework which uses a model of driver-in-the-loop steering dynamics to optimise the torque intervention with respect to the driver's neuromuscular response. We first validate the system in simulations to compare the performance of the controller in nominal and model mismatch cases. Then we implement the controller in a test vehicle and perform experiments with a human driver. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed system in avoiding hazardous situations under different driver behaviours.

  4. Are Remotely Sensed Trends in the Built Environment and Urban Vegetation Predictive of Changes in Metropolitan Housing Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endsley, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    In the midst of a global urbanization trend, residential neighborhoods are undergoing a variety of changes, including neighborhood turnover, the re-location of employment centers, and, recently, the increasing social and economic isolation of the suburbs. In the U.S., where residential lawns account for more area than any other irrigated crop (Polsky et al. 2014, in PNAS), coeval changes in residential populations, the built environment, and vegetation have serious implications for urban sustainability. To date, detailed studies of dynamic neighborhood changes have been hampered by the lack of fine time-series data on neighborhood composition. Most notably, the U.S. Census is conducted only once every decade leading to the likely inaccurate assumption of linear change between Census years. To the extent that human activities alter the built environment and urban ecology, can remotely sensed biophysical changes serve as a good proxy for neighborhood socio-economic changes? In this study, I apply time series data on spectral reflectance, spectral indices, and land-cover abundances from 15-to-25 years of Landsat data to fine-scale data on residential property transactions in two metropolitan areas with different regional economic and environmental contexts: Detroit and Los Angeles. The real estate record provides parcel-level, monthly data on sale prices and tax foreclosures; taken together, these provide a good description of the housing market and an acceptable proxy for neighborhood stability. By comparing lagged features from the remote sensing (RS) archive at different time scales in a non-parametric statistical learning algorithm, I identify which RS features best predict changes in the housing market and compare these associations between the two metropolitan areas and across multiple spatial and temporal scales along an urban to peri-urban gradient.

  5. Recent trends in paralytic shellfish toxins in Puget Sound, relationships to climate, and capacity for prediction of toxic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephanie K. Moore; Nathan J. Mantua; Barbara M. Hickey; Vera L. Trainer

    2009-01-01

    Temporal and spatial trends in paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) in Puget Sound shellfish and their relationships with climate are investigated using long-term monitoring data since 1957. Data are selected for trend analyses based on the sensitivity of shellfish species to PSTs and their depuration rates, and the frequency of sample collection at individual sites....

  6. Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

    2014-10-01

    Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that

  7. New trends in the evaluation and implementation of the safety-related operating experience associated with NRC-licensed reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelson, C.; Heltemes, C.J.

    1981-01-01

    This article is an overview of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission program for the evaluation and dissemination of the safety-related operating experience associated with all NRC-licensed reactors. It discusses the historical background and past problems that led to the recent formation of NRC's Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) and details its activities, organization, staffing, and proposed analysis and evaluation methodology. The programs of industry organizations and nuclear plant licensees and the integration of foreign operating experience are included in the overview. The problems and limitations of the Licensee Event Report (LER) program and the Nuclear Plant Reliability Data system program are discussed. The AEOD analysis and evaluation methodology program includes some new improvements in the assessment of safety-related operating experience. Of particular note is the sequence coding and search procedure being developed by AEOD under a contract with the Nuclear Safety Information Center at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This computer-based retrieval system will have markedly improved search strategy capability for such items as commoncause failures or complex system interactions involving various failure sequences and other relationships associated with an event. The system retrieves failure data and information on the principal LER occurrence and on related component and system responses. The computer-generated Power Reactor Watch List enables AEOD to monitor all critical or unusual situations warranting close attention because of potential public health and safety. This listing is supported by a preestablished computer search strategy of the historical data base permitting identification of all past events and statistical information that are applicable to the situation being watched

  8. Safety and reliability in the 90s: will past experience or prediction meet our needs?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, M.H.; Cox, R.F.

    1990-01-01

    Twenty-six papers are presented in the proceedings of the 1990 Safety and Reliability Society Symposium. The papers selected provide current thinking on improved methods for identification, quantification and management of risks based on the safety culture developed across a range of industries during the last decade. In particular organizational and management factors feature in a large number of the papers. Two papers on the safety of all the operating plants at Sellafield's irradiated nuclear fuel handling and reprocessing site and the selection of field component reliability data for use in nuclear safety studies are selected and indexed separately. (author)

  9. SAFETY

    CERN Multimedia

    M. Plagge, C. Schaefer and N. Dupont

    2013-01-01

    Fire Safety – Essential for a particle detector The CMS detector is a marvel of high technology, one of the most precise particle measurement devices we have built until now. Of course it has to be protected from external and internal incidents like the ones that can occur from fires. Due to the fire load, the permanent availability of oxygen and the presence of various ignition sources mostly based on electricity this has to be addressed. Starting from the beam pipe towards the magnet coil, the detector is protected by flooding it with pure gaseous nitrogen during operation. The outer shell of CMS, namely the yoke and the muon chambers are then covered by an emergency inertion system also based on nitrogen. To ensure maximum fire safety, all materials used comply with the CERN regulations IS 23 and IS 41 with only a few exceptions. Every piece of the 30-tonne polyethylene shielding is high-density material, borated, boxed within steel and coated with intumescent (a paint that creates a thick co...

  10. SAFETY

    CERN Multimedia

    C. Schaefer and N. Dupont

    2013-01-01

      “Safety is the highest priority”: this statement from CERN is endorsed by the CMS management. An interpretation of this statement may bring you to the conclusion that you should stop working in order to avoid risks. If the safety is the priority, work is not! This would be a misunderstanding and misinterpretation. One should understand that “working safely” or “operating safely” is the priority at CERN. CERN personnel are exposed to different hazards on many levels on a daily basis. However, risk analyses and assessments are done in order to limit the number and the gravity of accidents. For example, this process takes place each time you cross the road. The hazard is the moving vehicle, the stake is you and the risk might be the risk of collision between both. The same principle has to be applied during our daily work. In particular, keeping in mind the general principles of prevention defined in the late 1980s. These principles wer...

  11. Correlation of the corrosion rates of steels in a straw fired boiler with the thermodynamically predicted trend of KOH(g) in the flue gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blomberg, Tom

    2012-01-01

    The thermodynamic stability of KOH(g) in flue gases without sulfur and chlorine compounds was studied. Relatively good correlation of the thermodynamically predicted trend of KOH(g) in the flue gases and the literature data of the corrosion rates of different steels in a straw fired boiler was found. A discussion on a possible, physically reasonable mechanism is also presented. However, the causality of the found correlation requires further studies. Highlights: ► Corrosion rates in a straw boiler correlate with the predicted trend of KOH(g). ► KOH(g) impinging the surface may be an important factor in corrosion in straw fired boilers. ► The proposed mechanism may be relevant also to other biomass fuels that release potassium hydroxide during combustion.

  12. Trends in pharmacy staff’s perception of patient safety in Swedish community pharmacies after re-regulation of conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kälvemark Sporrong, Sofia; Nordén-Hägg, Annika

    2014-01-01

    pharmacies prior to and after the 2009 changes in regulation of the Swedish community pharmacy market. Methods: Questionnaires targeted at pharmacy staff before and after the changes in regulation (in 2008, 2011/12, and 2012/13 respectively) used four identical items, making comparisons of some aspects...... no significant differences. Conclusions: The comparison carried out in this study indicates a negative effect in Swedish community pharmacies on safety and quality issues, as experienced by pharmacy staff. It is recommended that the possible effects of healthcare reforms are assessed before implementation...

  13. Prediction of Heat Transfer Performance on Horizontal U-Shaped Heat Exchanger in Passive Safety System Using MARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, Seong-Su; Hong, Soon-Joon [FNC Tech, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Hyoung-Kyu; Park, Goon-Cherl [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The design and the safety analysis of the passive safety systems are performed mainly using the best-estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis codes such as RELAP5 and MARS. This study developed the heat transfer model package for the horizontal U-shaped HX submerged in a pool by improving the horizontal in-tube condensation model and developing the outside-tube natural convective nucleate boiling model. This paper presents the HX model package and the validation results against the passive safety system-related experimental data of PASCAL and ATLAS-PAFS. This study developed the heat transfer model package of the horizontal U-shaped HX submerged in a pool in order to obtain a reliable prediction of the HX heat removal performance of the passive safety system, especially PAFS, using MARS. From the validation results, the proposed model package provided the improved prediction of HX performance (condensation, natural convective nucleate boiling, and heat removal rate of the HX) compared to the default model in MARS.

  14. Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, P.M.S.

    1987-01-01

    Aspects of fission reactors are considered - control, heat removal and containment. Brief descriptions of the reactor accidents at the SL-1 reactor (1961), Windscale (1957), Browns Ferry (1975), Three Mile Island (1979) and Chernobyl (1986) are given. The idea of inherently safe reactor designs is discussed. Safety assessment is considered under the headings of preliminary hazard analysis, failure mode analysis, event trees, fault trees, common mode failure and probabalistic risk assessments. These latter can result in a series of risk distributions linked to specific groups of fault sequences and specific consequences. A frequency-consequence diagram is shown. Fatal accident incidence rates in different countries including the United Kingdom for various industries are quoted. The incidence of fatal cancers from occupational exposure to chemicals is tabulated. Human factors and the acceptability of risk are considered. (U.K.)

  15. Trends in traffic fatalities in Mexico: examining progress on the decade of action for road safety 2011-2020.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervantes-Trejo, Arturo; Leenen, Iwin; Fabila-Carrasco, John Stewart; Rojas-Vargas, Roy

    2016-11-01

    We explore demographic, temporal and geographic patterns of 256,588 road traffic fatalities from 1998 to 2013 in Mexico, in context of UN´s decade of action for road safety 2010-2020 (DARS). Combined traffic mortality data and population counts were analyzed using mixed-effects logistic regression, distinguishing sex-age groups, vulnerable and protected road users, and municipal size. Rapid growth from 1998 to 2008 in traffic mortality rates has been reversed since 2009. Most deaths averted are among young male protected road users (reduction of 0.95 fatalities per 100,000 per year in males 12-49). In spite of a steady decrease over the full study period, mortality rates remain high in vulnerable road users over 50, with a high mortality rate of 26 per 100,000 males over 75 years in 2013. Progress on the reduction of deaths advances in Mexico, in line with DARS targets. National road safety efforts require strengthening. Initiatives should target vulnerable road users, specifically adults >50 years in urban areas. Strengthening of drink driving programs aimed at young drivers/occupants is promising.

  16. EFSA and ECDC (European Food Safety Authority and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), 2015. The European Union Summary Report on Trends and Sources of Zoonoses, Zoonotic Agents and Food-borne Outbreaks in 2013

    OpenAIRE

    Helwigh, Birgitte

    2015-01-01

    This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of the zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2013 in 32 European countries (28 Member States and four non-Member States). Campylobacter iosis was the most commonly reported zoonosis. After several years of an increasing European Union (EU) trend, the human Campylobacter iosis notification rate has stabilised. In food and animals no EU trends were observed a...

  17. TVSA-T fuel assembly for 'Temelin' NPP. Main results of design and safety analyses. Trends of development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samojlov, O.B.; Kajdalov, V.B.; Falkov, A.A.; Bolnov, V.A.; Morozkin, O.N.; Molchanov, V.L.; Ugryumov, A.V.

    2010-01-01

    TVSA is a fuel assembly with rigid skeleton formed by 6 angle pieces and SG is successfully operated at 17 VVER-1000 power units of Kalinin NPP, as well as at Ukrainian and Bulgarian NPPs. Based on a contract for fuel supply to the Temelin NPP, the TVSA-T fuel assembly was developed, building on proven solutions confirmed by operation of TVSA modifications during 4-6 years and by the results of post-irradiation examination. The TVSA-T design includes combined spacer grids (SG+MG) and by fuel column elongation by 150 mm. A set of analyses and experiments was performed to validate the design, including thermal hydraulic tests, validation of critical heat flux correlation for TVSA-T, integrated mechanical, vibration and lifetime tests. A licence to use the fuel has been granted by the Czech State Office for Nuclear Safety. The TVSA-T core is currently in operation at the Temelin-1 reactor unit. The presentation is concluded as follows: TVSA-T fuel assembly for Temelin has been validated. The TVSA-T design is based on approved technical decisions and meets the current requirements for lifetime, operational maneuverability and safety. The results of post-irradiation examination of TVSA-T operated at the Kalinin-1 unit for 4 years confirm the assembly operability, skeleton stiffness, geometric stability and normal fuel rod cladding condition. The properties of the TVSA fuel with MG allow the core power to be increased up to 3300 MW to match the envisaged future VVER (MIR-1200) design, providing allowable fuel rod power FΔh =1.63 (to implement effective fuel cycles). (P.A.)

  18. Shielding Effectiveness Measurements Applied to Safety Assessment Predictions at Picatinny Arsenal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tesny, Neal; Litz, Marc; Conrad, David; Dilks, Lillian

    2005-01-01

    .... The results of the measurements show that attenuation factors provided in the current configuration are sufficient to provide acceptable environmental and safety protection from high-power RF impulse...

  19. Application of the Digital Image Technology in the Visual Monitoring and Prediction of Shuttering Construction Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummin, Okumura; Tian, Han; Zhu, Haiyu; Liu, Fuqiang

    2018-03-01

    Construction safety has always been the first priority in construction process. The common safety problem is the instability of the template support. In order to solve this problem, the digital image measurement technology has been contrived to support real-time monitoring system which can be triggered if the deformation value exceed the specified range. Thus the economic loss could be reduced to the lowest level.

  20. Development of associations and kinetic models for microbiological data to be used in comprehensive food safety prediction software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halder, Amit; Black, D Glenn; Davidson, P Michael; Datta, Ashim

    2010-08-01

    The objective of this study was to use an existing database of food products and their associated processes, link it with a list of the foodborne pathogenic microorganisms associated with those products and finally identify growth and inactivation kinetic parameters associated with those pathogens. The database was to be used as a part of the development of comprehensive software which could predict food safety and quality for any food product. The main issues in building such a predictive system included selection of predictive models, associations of different food types with pathogens (as determined from outbreak histories), and variability in data from different experiments. More than 1000 data sets from published literature were analyzed and grouped according to microorganisms and food types. Final grouping of data consisted of the 8 most prevalent pathogens for 14 different food groups, covering all of the foods (>7000) listed in the USDA Natl. Nutrient Database. Data for each group were analyzed in terms of 1st-order inactivation, 1st-order growth, and sigmoidal growth models, and their kinetic response for growth and inactivation as a function of temperature were reported. Means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for prediction equations. The primary advantage in obtaining group-specific kinetic data is the ability to extend microbiological growth and death simulation to a large array of product and process possibilities, while still being reasonably accurate. Such simulation capability could provide vital ''what if'' scenarios for industry, Extension, and academia in food safety.

  1. Statistical analysis of aging trend of mechanical properties in ethylene propylene rubber-insulated safety-related cables sampled from containments (Denryoko Chuo Kenkyusho Hokoku, December 2013 issue)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuse, Norikazu; Kanegami, Masaki; Misaka, Hideki; Homma, Hiroya; Okamoto, Tatsuki

    2013-01-01

    As for polymeric insulations used in nuclear power plant safety cables, it is known that the present prediction model sometimes estimates the service life conservatively. In order to sophisticate the model to reflect to the aging in containments, disconnections between the prediction and realities are needed to be clarified. In the present paper, statistical analysis has been carried out on various aging status of insulations removed from domestic containments. Aging in operational environment is found to be slower than the one expected from acceleration aging test results. Temperature dependence of estimated lifetime on Arrhenius plot also suggests that elementary chemical reaction dominant under the two aging conditions is different, which results in apparent difference in activation energies and pre-exponential factors. Following two kinds of issues are found necessary to be clarified for the model sophistication; temperature change in predominant degradation chemical processes, and the effect of low oxygen concentration environment in boiling water reactor type containment. (author)

  2. Trends in qualifying biomarkers in drug safety. Consensus of the 2011 meeting of the spanish society of clinical pharmacology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agúndez, José A G; Del Barrio, Jaime; Padró, Teresa; Stephens, Camilla; Farré, Magí; Andrade, Raúl J; Badimon, Lina; García-Martín, Elena; Vilahur, Gemma; Lucena, M Isabel

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the consensus view on the use of qualifying biomarkers in drug safety, raised within the frame of the XXIV meeting of the Spanish Society of Clinical Pharmacology held in Málaga (Spain) in October, 2011. The widespread use of biomarkers as surrogate endpoints is a goal that scientists have long been pursuing. Thirty years ago, when molecular pharmacogenomics evolved, we anticipated that these genetic biomarkers would soon obviate the routine use of drug therapies in a way that patients should adapt to the therapy rather than the opposite. This expected revolution in routine clinical practice never took place as quickly nor with the intensity as initially expected. The concerted action of operating multicenter networks holds great promise for future studies to identify biomarkers related to drug toxicity and to provide better insight into the underlying pathogenesis. Today some pharmacogenomic advances are already widely accepted, but pharmacogenomics still needs further development to elaborate more precise algorithms and many barriers to implementing individualized medicine exist. We briefly discuss our view about these barriers and we provide suggestions and areas of focus to advance in the field.

  3. Determining quantitative road safety targets by applying statistical prediction techniques and a multi-stage adjustment procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg, P; Sever, K; Knoth, S; Sahin, N; Bondarenko, J

    2013-01-01

    Due to substantial progress made in road safety in the last ten years, the European Union (EU) renewed the ambitious agreement of halving the number of persons killed on the roads within the next decade. In this paper we develop a method that aims at finding an optimal target for each nation, in terms of being as achievable as possible, and with the cumulative EU target being reached. Targets as an important component in road safety policy are given as reduction rate or as absolute number of road traffic deaths. Determination of these quantitative road safety targets (QRST) is done by a top-down approach, formalized in a multi-stage adjustment procedure. Different QRST are derived under consideration of recent research. The paper presents a method to break the national target further down to regional targets in case of the German Federal States. Generalized linear models are fitted to data in the period 1991-2010. Our model selection procedure chooses various models for the EU and solely log-linear models for the German Federal States. If the proposed targets for the EU Member States are attained, the sum of fatalities should not exceed the total value of 15,465 per year by 2020. Both, the mean level and the range of mortality rates within the EU could be lowered from 28-113 in 2010 to 17-41 per million inhabitants in 2020. This study provides an alternative to the determination of safety targets by political commitments only, taking the history of road fatalities trends and population into consideration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Reliability prediction for the vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS and passive safety systems (PSS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balbir S. Dhillon

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The human error has been reported as a major root cause in road accidents in today’s world. The human as a driver in road vehicles composed of human, mechanical and electrical components is constantly exposed to changing surroundings (e.g., road conditions, environmentwhich deteriorate the driver’s capacities leading to a potential accident. The auto industries and transportation authorities have realized that similar to other complex and safety sensitive transportation systems, the road vehicles need to rely on both advanced technologies (i.e., Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and Passive Safety Systems (PSS (e.g.,, seatbelts, airbags in order to mitigate the risk of accidents and casualties. In this study, the advantages and disadvantages of ADAS as active safety systems as well as passive safety systems in road vehicles have been discussed. Also, this study proposes models that analyze the interactions between human as a driver and ADAS Warning and Crash Avoidance Systems and PSS in the design of vehicles. Thereafter, the mathematical models have been developed to make reliability prediction at any given time on the road transportation for vehicles equipped with ADAS and PSS. Finally, the implications of this study in the improvement of vehicle designs and prevention of casualties are discussed.

  5. Predicted coal production trends in Kentucky: The results of available coal resources, coal quality demands, and regulatory factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, W.D.

    1993-01-01

    Many factors affect the viability of regional coal production markets including (1) coal quality and recoverable tonnage, (2) coal mining cost, (3) the regional and time varying patterns of coal demand growth, (4) regulations and other institutional constraints that affect coal demand and utilization, and (5) the regional array of coal transport modes and rates. This analysis integrates these factors into an assessment of coal production prospects (separately) for eastern and western Kentucky coal producing counties for the decade of the 90's. The integration indicates that eastern Kentucky coal production will peak and begin to decline by the end of the decade whereas western Kentucky coal production will continue to grow. No single factor explains these trends. There is plenty of available minable coal. The combination of changes in environmental regulations, some increase in coal mining costs, and the mining-out of low sulfur reserves are the main factors that account for the production trends

  6. Using instrumented probe bicycles to develop bicycle safety and comfort prediction models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lee, A. Dias, L. Mohanty, S. Carvalho, T. Commandeur, J. & Lovegrove, G.

    2014-01-01

    Common deterrents to cycling in North America are the real and/or perceived concerns on the safety, comfort, and practicality of choosing cycling over other modes of transportation, concerns that may be addressed by improved cycling facilities. The challenge lies in effectively quantifying the

  7. Agenda trending: reciprocity and the predictive capacity of social networking sites in intermedia agenda setting across topics over time

    OpenAIRE

    Groshek, Jacob; Groshek, Megan Clough

    2013-01-01

    In the contemporary converged media environment, agenda setting is being transformed by the dramatic growth of audiences that are simultaneously media users and producers. The study reported here addresses related gaps in the literature by first comparing the topical agendas of two leading traditional media outlets (New York Times and CNN) with the most frequently shared stories and trending topics on two widely popular Social Networking Sites (Facebook and Twitter). Time-series analyses of t...

  8. Predicting workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions using SecureFit®: Further support for integrative models of workplace safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Matthew; Delgado, Kristin; Lawrence, Amie; Kung, Mavis; Tristan, Esteban

    2017-06-01

    A growing body of applied research has identified certain psychological traits that are predictive of worker safety. However, most of these studies suffer from an overreliance on common method bias caused by self-report measures of both: (a) personal factors such as personality traits; and (b) outcomes such as safety behaviors and injuries. This study utilized archival data from 796 employees at a large U.S. automobile manufacturer. Data were gathered on a pre-employment assessment, SecureFit®, that measured key personality characteristics such as conscientiousness, locus of control, and risk taking. In addition, objective measures of workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions were also gathered. The results indicated that disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims were strongly correlated. It also demonstrated that the pre-employment assessment was able to predict both disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims up to 12months in the future. Screening out just 8% of the applicant sample using the assessment would have resulted in a 35% reduction in disciplinary actions and 46% in workers' compensation claims, respectively. The study found a very strong relationship between counterproductive work behaviors (CWBs), such as not following rules, and workers' compensation claims. It also found a strong relationship between a combination of personality traits that have been shown to be associated with both variables, although the current study was able to demonstrate that relationship with objective measure of both variables. Individuals who receive disciplinary actions for things such as not following rules, not coming to work on time, etc. are significantly more likely to also be involved in serious safety incidents, and vice versa. Identifying those individuals early on in the hiring process and screening them out can significantly reduce the number of CWBs as well as workers' compensation claims. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and

  9. Predicting the indicators of the safety performance monitoring after implementation of integrated management system (IMS in a combined cycle power plant in Yazd city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Laal

    2015-07-01

    .Conclusion: Findings show that Cubic regression can be an appropriate to olforinvestigating the indicators trends and for their predictionin planning and monitoring the performance ofsafety unitso that the decision-making for determining the priority of organizations’ safety programs would be facilitated.

  10. Visumax femtolasik versus Moria M2 microkeratome in mild to moderate myopia: efficacy, safety, predictability, aberrometric changes and flap thickness predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torky, Magda A; Al Zafiri, Yousif A; Khattab, Abeer M; Farag, Rania K; Awad, Eman A

    2017-07-17

    This is an interventional prospective clinical study which was conducted to evaluate the efficacy, safety, predictability, ocular aberrations, and flap thickness predictability of Visumax femtosecond laser (FSL) compared to Moria M2 microkeratome (MK) in mild to moderate myopia. This study included 60 eyes who were divided into two groups. Thirty eyes in group (I) in which the flap was created with Visumax FSL, while in group II (30 eyes) the Moria M2 MK was used. Keratometric, refractive, and aberrometric measurements were compared preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively. The intraoperative subtraction pachymetry (the SP 100 Handy pachymeter (Tomey, Nagoya, Japan) was used for preoperative pachymetry and flap thickness measurement. No significant difference was found between the two groups in regards to postoperative manifest sphere, spherical equivalent, astigmatism, safety indices nor ocular aberrations. Twenty six eyes (86.6%) in group I and 23 eyes in group II (76.6%) were within ±0.5D of the intended correction and 23 eyes (76.6%) in group I and 15 eyes in group II (50%) were within ±0.25D of the intended correction. In group I, the mean postoperative actual flap thickness was 100.12 ± 16.1 μm (81 to 122 μm), while in group II, it was 104.6 ± 20.1 μm (62 to 155 μm). The difference was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Both Visumax and Moria M2 MK are safe and effective in treating myopia with no statistically significant difference in induction of ocular aberrations but with potential advantage for Visumax regarding predictability. More accurate flap thickness is achieved with Visumax femtolasik. This study was retrospectively registered on 19/6/2017. Trial registration number NCT03193411 , clinicalTrials.gov .

  11. Effectiveness of HBV vaccination in infants and prediction of HBV prevalence trend under new vaccination plan: findings of a large-scale investigation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-gui Yang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV infection remains a severe public health problem. Investigating its prevalence and trends is essential to prevention. METHODS: To evaluate the effectiveness of HBV vaccination under the 1992 Intervention Program for infants and predicted HBV prevalence trends under the 2011 Program for all ages. We conducted a community-based investigation of 761,544 residents of 12 counties in Zhejiang Province selected according to their location, population density, and economic development. The HBV prevalence trends were predicted by a time-shifting approach. HBV surface antigen (HBsAg and alanine amino transferase (ALT were determined. RESULTS: Of the 761,544 persons screened for HBsAg, 54,132 were positive (adjusted carrier rate 6.13%; 9,455 had both elevated ALT and a positive HBsAg test (standardized rate 1.18%. The standardized HBsAg carrier rate for persons aged ≤20 years was 1.51%. Key factors influencing HBV infection were sex, age, family history, drinking, smoking, employment as a migrant worker, and occupation. With the vaccination program implemented in 2011, we predict that by 2020, the HBsAg carrier rate will be 5.27% and that for individuals aged ≤34 years will reach the 2% upper limit of low prevalence according to the WHO criteria, with a standardized rate of 1.86%. CONCLUSIONS: The national HBV vaccination program for infants implemented in 1992 has greatly reduced the prevalence of HBV infection. The 2011 program is likely to reduce HBV infection in Zhejiang Province to a low moderate prevalence, and perinatal transmission is expected to be controlled by 2020.

  12. Trends in internet search activity, media coverage, and patient-centered health information after the FDA safety communications on surgical mesh for pelvic organ prolapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Benjamin V; Forde, James C; Levit, Valerie B; Lee, Richard K; Te, Alexis E; Chughtai, Bilal

    2016-11-01

    In July 2011, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued a safety communication regarding serious complications associated with surgical mesh for pelvic organ prolapse, prompting increased media and public attention. This study sought to analyze internet search activity and news article volume after this FDA warning and to evaluate the quality of websites providing patient-centered information. Google Trends™ was utilized to evaluate search engine trends for the term "pelvic organ prolapse" and associated terms between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2014. Google News™ was utilized to quantify the number of news articles annually under the term "pelvic organ prolapse." The search results for the term "pelvic organ prolapse" were assessed for quality using the Health On the Net Foundation (HON) certification. There was a significant increase in search activity from 37.42 in 2010 to 57.75 in 2011, at the time of the FDA communication (p = 0.021). No other annual interval had a statistically significant increase in search activity. The single highest monthly search activity, given the value of 100, was August 2011, immediately following the July 2011 notification, with the next highest value being 98 in July 2011. Linear regression analysis of news articles per year since the FDA communication revealed r 2  = 0.88, with a coefficient of 186. Quality assessment demonstrated that 42 % of websites were HON-certified, with .gov sites providing the highest quality information. Although the 2011 FDA safety communication on surgical mesh was associated with increased public and media attention, the quality of relevant health information on the internet remains of poor quality. Future quality assurance measures may be critical in enabling patients to play active roles in their own healthcare.

  13. Grey GM(1,1) Model with Function-Transfer Method for Wear Trend Prediction and its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Trend forecasting is an important aspect in fault diagnosis and work state super-vision. The principle, where Grey theory is applied in fault forecasting, is that the fore-cast system is considered as a Grey system; the existing known information is used to infer the unknown in f ormations character, state and development trend in a fault pattern, and to make possible forecasting and decisions for future development. It involves the whiteniza tion of a Grey process. But the traditional equal time interval Grey GM (1,1) model re-quires equal interval data and needs to bring about accumulating addition generation and reversion calculations. Its calculation is very complex. However, the non-equal interval Grey GM (1,1) model decreases the condition of the primitive data when establishing a model,but its requirement is still higher and the data were pre-processed. The abrasion primitive data of plant could not always satisfy these modeling requirements. Therefore, it establi-shes a division method suited for general data modeling and estimating parameters of GM (1,1), the standard error coefficient that was applied to judge accuracy height of the model was put forward; further, the function transform to forecast plant abrasion trend and assess GM (1,1) parameter was established. These two models need not pre-process the primitive data. It is not only suited for equal interval data modeling, but also for non-e-qual interval data modeling. Its calculation is simple and convenient to use. The oil spec-trum analysis acted as an example. The two GM (1,1) models put forward in this paper and the new information model and its comprehensive usage were investigated. The exam ple shows that the two models are simple and practical, and worth expanding and apply-ing in plant fault diagnosis.

  14. Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in north-west region of India: A six-year ICTC-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vyas Nitya

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for a couple of years. Objectives: The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. Materials and Methods: All the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence, pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied. As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S were performed on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were anticipated. Results: The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be 12.2% (386/3161, 11.8% (519/4381, 11.1% (649/5867, 13% (908/6983, 14% (1385/9911 and 17.34% (1756/10133 in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence without any plateau. Conclusion: Epidemiological studies should be carried out in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS.

  15. Safety behaviors and sleep effort predict sleep disturbance and fatigue in an outpatient sample with anxiety and depressive disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairholme, Christopher P; Manber, Rachel

    2014-03-01

    Theoretical and empirical support for the role of dysfunctional beliefs, safety behaviors, and increased sleep effort in the maintenance of insomnia has begun to accumulate. It is not yet known how these factors predict sleep disturbance and fatigue occurring in the context of anxiety and mood disorders. It was hypothesized that these three insomnia-specific cognitive-behavioral factors would be uniquely associated with insomnia and fatigue among patients with emotional disorders after adjusting for current symptoms of anxiety and depression and trait levels of neuroticism and extraversion. Outpatients with a current anxiety or mood disorder (N = 63) completed self-report measures including the Dysfunctional Beliefs About Sleep Scale (DBAS), Sleep-Related Safety Behaviors Questionnaire (SRBQ), Glasgow Sleep Effort Scale (GSES), Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), NEO Five-Factor Inventory (FFI), and the 21-item Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS). Multivariate path analysis was used to evaluate study hypotheses. SRBQ (B = .60, p relationship between safety behaviors and fatigue was strongest among individuals with greater levels of dysfunctional beliefs. Findings are consistent with cognitive behavioral models of insomnia and suggest that sleep-specific factors might be important treatment targets among patients with anxiety and depressive disorders with disturbed sleep. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Use of read-across and computer-based predictive analysis for the safety assessment of PEG cocamines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skare, Julie A; Blackburn, Karen; Wu, Shengde; Re, Thomas A; Duche, Daniel; Ringeissen, Stephanie; Bjerke, Donald L; Srinivasan, Viny; Eisenmann, Carol

    2015-04-01

    In the European Union animal testing has been eliminated for cosmetic ingredients while the US Cosmetic Ingredient Review Expert Panel may request data from animal studies. The use of read-across and predictive toxicology provides a path for filling data gaps without additional animal testing. The PEG cocamines are tertiary amines with an alkyl group derived from coconut fatty acids and two PEG chains of varying length. Toxicology data gaps for the PEG cocamines can be addressed by read-across based on structure-activity relationship using the framework described by Wu et al. (2010) for identifying suitable structural analogs. Data for structural analogs supports the conclusion that the PEG cocamines are non-genotoxic and not expected to exhibit systemic or developmental/reproductive toxicity with use in cosmetics. Due to lack of reliable dermal sensitization data for suitable analogs, this endpoint was addressed using predictive software (TIMES SS) as a first step (Laboratory of Mathematical Chemistry). The prediction for PEG cocamines was the same as that for PEGs, which have been concluded to not present a significant concern for dermal sensitization. This evaluation for PEG cocamines demonstrates the utility of read-across and predictive toxicology tools to assess the safety of cosmetic ingredients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. CAMS prototype extension: Integration of data acquisition, signal validation, tracking simulator, predictive simulator, state identification, and probabilistic safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantoni, Paolo; Iguchi, Yukihiro; Meyer, Geir; Soerensen, Aimar; Van Dyck, Claude

    1996-04-01

    CAMS (Computerized Accident Management Support) is a system that will provide assistance to the staff in the control room, in the technical support centre, and in a national safety centre. These three groups of users do not need the same type of support. Support is offered in identification of the plant state, in assessment of the future development of the accident, and in planning of accident mitigation strategies. Last year the predictive part of the system was tested at a safety exercise arranged by the Swedish Nuclear Inspectorate, and found to be a useful tool, with potential for further development. Now, new methods are added in signal validation, state identification, tracking simulation, predictive simulation, risk monitoring, and man-machine interface design. A prototype will be demonstrated at Loen in May 1996. This prototype is still under development. The purpose of this prototype is to test those methods in a simulated environment to verify that the developed functions, using different techniques, can work together producing the desired result in an efficient way. The plan is to test these techniques at power plants. During the CAMS design, a considerable effort has been given to maintain the generality of the CAMS concept; although the referenced process has been so far a BWR nuclear plant, the use of this structure and design can be applied to other processes, including non-nuclear processes. The research programme is carried out in close cooperation with member organizations (author)

  18. Patterns and Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence Rates in Eastern and Southeastern Asian Countries (1983-2007) and Predictions to 2030.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Xu, Kaijin; Ding, Cheng; Zhou, Yuqing; Fu, Xiaofang; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Li, Lanjuan

    2018-05-01

    We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging. Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, N K; Robey, I F; Gaffney, E A; Gillies, R J; Gatenby, R A; Maini, P K

    2012-01-01

    Background: Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. Methods: We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. Results: The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1–7.2. Conclusion: Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1–7.2 is most

  20. Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, N K; Robey, I F; Gaffney, E A; Gillies, R J; Gatenby, R A; Maini, P K

    2012-03-27

    Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1-7.2. Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1-7.2 is most promising.

  1. Renal Resistance Trend During Hypothermic Machine Perfusion Is More Predictive of Postoperative Outcome Than Biopsy Score: Preliminary Experience in 35 Consecutive Kidney Transplantations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissolati, Massimiliano; Gazzetta, Paolo Giovanni; Caldara, Rossana; Guarneri, Giovanni; Adamenko, Olga; Giannone, Fabio; Mazza, Michele; Maggi, Giulia; Tomanin, Deborah; Rosati, Riccardo; Secchi, Antonio; Socci, Carlo

    2018-03-30

    Hypothermic machine perfusion (HPM) grants a better postoperative outcome in transplantation of organs procured from extended criteria donors (ECDs) and donors after cardiac death (DCD). So far, the only available parameter for outcome prediction concerning those organs is pretransplant biopsy score. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether renal resistance (RR) trend during HPM may be used as a predictive marker for post-transplantation outcome. From December 2015 to present, HMP has been systematically applied to all organs from ECDs and DCD. All grafts underwent pretransplantation biopsy evaluation using Karpinski's histological score. Only organs that reached RR value ≤1.0 within 3 hours of perfusion were transplanted. Single kidney transplantation (SKT) or double kidney transplantation (DKT) were performed according to biopsy score results. Sixty-five HMPs were performed (58 from ECDs and 7 from DCD/ECMO donors). Fifteen kidneys were insufficiently reconditioned (RR > 1) and were therefore discarded. Forty-nine kidneys were transplanted, divided between 21 SKT and 14 DKT. Overall primary nonfunction (PNF) and delayed graft function (DGF) rate were 2.9 and 17.1%, respectively. DGF were more common in kidneys from DCD (67 vs. 7%; P = 0.004). Biopsy score did not correlate with PNF/DGF rate (P = 0.870) and postoperative creatinine trend (P = 0.796). Recipients of kidneys that reached RR ≤ 1.0 within 1 hour of HMP had a lower PNF/DGF rate (11 vs. 44%; P = 0.033) and faster serum creatinine decrease (POD10 creatinine: 1.79 mg/dL vs. 4.33 mg/dL; P = 0.019). RR trend is more predictive of post-transplantation outcome than biopsy score. Hence, RR trend should be taken into account in the pretransplantation evaluation of the organs. © 2018 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Example of predictive rather than responsive safety research for fusion energy experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvares, N.J.; Hasegawa, H.K.

    1979-01-01

    A fault tree analysis (FTA) was used to study the fire-management systems of two LLL fusion experiments (2XIIB and SHIVA). This technique identified failure modes of existing system components and indicated what the effects of component failure might be in the event of fire in the protected spaces. This paper describes the results of the initial analytical phase of the project and indicates critical unknown parameters required for further analysis. Moreover, the analytical procedures developed are applicable to most, if not all, safety disciplines and could serve as a basis for the logical reestablishment of the FL/SCC by DOE

  3. Probabilistic safety assessment of WWER440 reactors prediction, quantification and management of the risk

    CERN Document Server

    Kovacs, Zoltan

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this book is to summarize probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of nuclear power plants with WWER440 reactors and  demonstrate that the plants are safe enough for producing energy even in light of the Fukushima accident. The book examines level 1 and 2 full power, low power and shutdown PSA, and summarizes the author's experience gained during the last 35 years in this area. It provides useful examples taken from PSA training courses the author has lectured and organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Such training courses were organised in Argonne National Laboratory (

  4. Worst case prediction of additives migration from polystyrene for food safety purposes: a model update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-López, Brais; Gontard, Nathalie; Peyron, Stéphane

    2018-03-01

    A reliable prediction of migration levels of plastic additives into food requires a robust estimation of diffusivity. Predictive modelling of diffusivity as recommended by the EU commission is carried out using a semi-empirical equation that relies on two polymer-dependent parameters. These parameters were determined for the polymers most used by packaging industry (LLDPE, HDPE, PP, PET, PS, HIPS) from the diffusivity data available at that time. In the specific case of general purpose polystyrene, the diffusivity data published since then shows that the use of the equation with the original parameters results in systematic underestimation of diffusivity. The goal of this study was therefore, to propose an update of the aforementioned parameters for PS on the basis of up to date diffusivity data, so the equation can be used for a reasoned overestimation of diffusivity.

  5. Consistency between analytical and finite element predictions for safety of cylindrical pressure vessels at higher temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iancu, Otto Theodor

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of the plastic collapse load of cylindrical pressure vessels is very often made by using expensive Finite Element computations. The calculation of the collapse load requires an elastic-plastic material model and the consideration of non-linear geometry effects. The plastic collapse load causes overall structural instability and cannot be determined directly from a Finite Element analysis. In the present paper the plastic collapse load for a cylindrical pressure vessel is determined by an analytical method based on a linear elastic perfectly plastic material model. When plasticity occurs the material is considered to be incompressible and the tensor of plastic strains to be parallel to the stress deviator tensor. In this case the finite stress-strain relationships of Henkel can be used for calculating the pressure for which plastic flow occurs. The analytical results are completely confirmed by Finite Element predictions. (orig.)

  6. Healthcare for the Healthy People: Miniaturization, Sensing and Actuation Trends and Needs in Preventive and Predictive Medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto SANNA

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available In modern medicine the role of prevention and prediction is acquiring an increasing market share, due to augmented awareness and interest of the population toward these issues, and to the recognition by public bodies that investing on prevention will be the only mean to afford economical sustainability in the future. Prediction must rely on the dynamic collection of several personal information, not only about the physical condition of the individual, but also about his/her behaviors and the environmental conditions. Prevention will increasingly imply the ability to modify the detected behaviors. However, monitoring these parameters and acting in response to undesired conditions requires a constant presence in people's everyday life. The target population for these services is healthy people that possibly won't spend too much in terms of time or money in invasive or costly solutions. For these reasons, we foresee an emerging role for sensing and actuation technologies able to provide miniaturization, pervasiveness and low costs.

  7. Prediction of Safety Stock Using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS and Technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID for Stock Control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mashuri Chamdan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This research was conducted by prediction of safety stock using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS and technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID for stock control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI. Well-controlled stock influenced company revenue and minimized cost. It discussed about information system of safety stock prediction developed through programming language of PHP. Input data consisted of demand got from automatic, online and real time acquisition using technology of RFID, then, sent to server and stored at online database. Furthermore, data of acquisition result was predicted by using algorithm of FTS applying universe of discourse defining and fuzzy sets determination. Fuzzy set result was continued to division process of universe of discourse in order to be to final step. Prediction result was displayed at information system dashboard developed. By using 60 data from demand data, prediction score was 450.331 and safety stock was 135.535. Prediction result was done by error deviation validation using Mean Square Percent Error of 15%. It proved that FTS was good enough in predicting demand and safety stock for stock control. For deeper analysis, researchers used data of demand and universe of discourse U varying at FTS to get various result based on test data used.

  8. Prediction of Safety Stock Using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for Stock Control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mashuri, Chamdan; Suryono; Suseno, Jatmiko Endro

    2018-02-01

    This research was conducted by prediction of safety stock using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for stock control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI). Well-controlled stock influenced company revenue and minimized cost. It discussed about information system of safety stock prediction developed through programming language of PHP. Input data consisted of demand got from automatic, online and real time acquisition using technology of RFID, then, sent to server and stored at online database. Furthermore, data of acquisition result was predicted by using algorithm of FTS applying universe of discourse defining and fuzzy sets determination. Fuzzy set result was continued to division process of universe of discourse in order to be to final step. Prediction result was displayed at information system dashboard developed. By using 60 data from demand data, prediction score was 450.331 and safety stock was 135.535. Prediction result was done by error deviation validation using Mean Square Percent Error of 15%. It proved that FTS was good enough in predicting demand and safety stock for stock control. For deeper analysis, researchers used data of demand and universe of discourse U varying at FTS to get various result based on test data used.

  9. An overview of the IAEA Safety Series on procedures for evaluating the reliability of predictions made by environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.W.; Hofer, E.

    1987-10-01

    The International Atomic Energy Agency is preparing a Safety Series publication on practical approaches for evaluating the reliability of the predictions made by environmental radiological assessment models. This publication identifies factors that affect the reliability of these predictions and discusses methods for quantifying uncertainty. Emphasis is placed on understanding the quantity of interest specified by the assessment question and distinguishing between stochastic variability and lack of knowledge about either the true value or the true distribution of values for quantity of interest. Among the many approaches discussed, model testing using independent data sets (model validation) is considered the best method for evaluating the accuracy in model predictions. Analytical and numerical methods for propagating the uncertainties in model parameters are presented and the strengths and weaknesses of model intercomparison exercises are also discussed. It is recognized that subjective judgment is employed throughout the entire modelling process, and quantitative reliability statements must be subjectively obtained when models are applied to different situations from those under which they have been tested. (6 refs.)

  10. Analytical prediction and experimental verification of reactor safety system injection transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, B.N.; Nomm, E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper describes the computer code that was developed for thermal hydraulic transient analysis of mixed phase fluid system and the flow tests that were carried out to validate the Code. A full scale test facility was designed to duplicate the Supplementary Shutdown System (SSS) of Savannah River Production Reactors. Several steady state and dynamic flow tests were conducted simulating the actual reactor injection transients. A dynamic multiphase fluid flow code was developed and validated with experimental results and utilized for system performance predictions and development of technical specifications for reactors. 3 refs

  11. Trend analysis and outcome prediction in mechanically ventilated patients: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming-Jang Lee

    Full Text Available To investigate the relationship between changes in patient attributes and hospital attributes over time and to explore predictors of medical utilization and mortality rates in mechanical ventilation (MV patients in Taiwan.Providing effective medical care for MV patients is challenging and requires good planning and effective clinical decision making policies. Most studies of MV, however, have only analyzed a single regional ventilator weaning center or respiratory care unit, high-quality population-based studies of MV trends and outcomes are scarce.This population-based cohort study retrospectively analyzed 213,945 MV patients treated during 2004-2009.During the study period, the percentages of MV patients with the following characteristics significantly increased: age ≦ 65 years, treatment at a medical center, and treatment by a high-volume physician. In contrast, the percentages of MV patients treated at local hospitals and by low-volume physicians significantly decreased (P<0.001. Age, gender, Deyo-Charlson co-morbidity index, teaching hospital, hospital level, hospital volume, and physician volume were significantly associated with MV outcome (P<0.001. Over the 6-year period analyzed in this study, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 48.8% whereas mean length of stay decreased 13.9%. The estimated mean overall survival time for MV patients was 16.4 months (SD 0.4 months, and the overall in-hospital 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 61.0%, 36.7%, 17.3%, and 9.6%, respectively.These population-based data revealed increases in the percentages of MV patients treated at medical centers and by high-volume physicians, especially in younger patients. Notably, although LOS for MV patients decreased, hospital treatment costs increased. Healthcare providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect outcomes.

  12. Comparison of nuclear safety research reactor (TRIGA-ACPR) performance with analytical prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, G.B.; Whittemore, W.L.

    1976-01-01

    The NSRR was taken critical on June 30, 1975 at the Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute - Tokai-mura, Japan. Following initial core loading and control rod calibration, a series of pulsing tests was performed to characterize the performance of the reactor. A comparison has been made of performance parameters actually measured in the 157 element core versus predicted values based upon design analyses. The nuclear parameters measured were quite close to prediction. A $4.70 pulse produced a minimum period of 1.12 msec, a peak power of 20,500 MW and yielded a prompt energy release of 103 MW-sec. Pulse tests with experimental UO 2 fuel pins in the central irradiation cavity have produced 320 cal/gm, averaged at the axial center of 10% enriched UO 2 , for a 100 MW-sec pulse. The pulse rods for the NSRR contain B 4 C enriched to about 93 percent in Boron-10 in order to achieve maximum design performance with only three pulse rods. The total worth for the three transient rods was measured to be about $5.05 (vs $5.07 calculated for the 165 element core), thus verifying the effectiveness of the Boron-10 enrichment to achieve the desired result. Analysis of fuel temperature measurements made in the NSRR show that, for fuel temperatures produced during pulsing greater than 900 deg. C, heat transfer in the 0.010-inch gap between fuel and clad is enhanced by the minor outgassing of hydrogen which is characteristic of that temperature region. The hydrogen is normally all reabsorbed within about 100 sec of maximum temperature, at which time the heat transfer is characteristic of air (or argon) in the gap. In some of the temperature-instrumented elements, however, all of the hydrogen was not reabsorbed and as a result these elements gave significantly lower temperatures for high power steady state operation than were recorded prior to pulsing. In general, the NSRR parameters measured during startup were quite close to analytical prediction and the overall performance of the

  13. Ground Motion Prediction Trends For Eastern North America Based on the Next Generation Attenuation East Ground Motion Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, C. H.; Kutliroff, J.; Dangkua, D.

    2010-12-01

    A five-year Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) East project to develop new ground motion prediction equations for stable continental regions (SCRs), including eastern North America (ENA), has begun at the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center funded by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the Department of Energy (DOE). The initial effort focused on database design and collection of appropriate M>4 ENA broadband and accelerograph records to populate the database. Ongoing work has focused on adding records from smaller ENA earthquakes and from other SCRs such as Europe, Australia, and India. Currently, over 6500 horizontal and vertical component records from 60 ENA earthquakes have been collected and prepared (instrument response removed, filtering to acceptable-signal band, determining peak and spectral parameter values, quality assurance, etc.) for the database. Geologic Survey of Canada (GSC) strong motion recordings, previously not available, have also been added to the NGA East database. The additional earthquakes increase the number of ground motion recordings in the 10 - 100 km range, particularly from the 2008 M5.2 Mt. Carmel, IL event, and the 2005 M4.7 Riviere du Loup and 2010 M5.0 Val des Bois earthquakes in Quebec, Canada. The goal is to complete the ENA database and make it available in 2011 followed by a SCR database in 2012. Comparisons of ground motion observations from four recent M5 ENA earthquakes with current ENA ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) suggest that current GMPEs, as a group, reasonably agree with M5 observations at short periods, particularly at distances less than 200 km. However, at one second, current GMPEs over predict M5 ground motion observations. The 2001 M7.6 Bhuj, India, earthquake provides some constraint at large magnitudes, as geology and regional attenuation is analogous to ENA. Cramer and Kumar, 2003, have

  14. On-line prediction of BWR transients in support of plant operation and safety analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wulff, W.; Cheng, H.S.; Lekach, S.V.; Mallen, A.N.

    1983-01-01

    A combination of advanced modeling techniques and modern, special-purpose peripheral minicomputer technology is presented which affords realistic predictions of plant transient and severe off-normal events in LWR power plants through on-line simulations at a speed ten times greater than actual process speeds. Results are shown for a BWR plant simulation. The mathematical models account for nonequilibrium, nonhomogeneous two-phase flow effects in the coolant, for acoustical effects in the steam line and for the dynamics of the recirculation loop and feed-water train. Point kinetics incorporate reactivity feedback for void fraction, for fuel temperature, and for coolant temperature. Control systems and trip logic are simulated for the nuclear steam supply system

  15. Transarterial Chemoembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinomas with Central Bile Duct Invasion: Safety, Prognosis, and Predictive Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Jin Woo; Chung, Jin Wook, E-mail: chungjw@snu.ac.kr [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Radiology (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Yun Ku [VHS Medical Center, Department of Radiology (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Internal Medicine (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hyo-Cheol; Jae, Hwan Jun [Seoul National University Hospital, Department of Radiology (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-08-15

    PurposeTo assess the safety and effectiveness of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of patients who have hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) with central bile duct invasion.Materials and MethodsThe institutional review board approved this retrospective study and waived informed consent. Fifty-three patients, initially treated with TACE for HCCs with central bile duct invasion from January 1999 to September 2012, were included. Clinical, laboratory, and survival data were reviewed. Complications and hospitalization length were evaluated using the χ{sup 2} test, Fisher’s exact test, and logistic regression analysis. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan–Meier method with log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard model.ResultsSeven patients experienced TACE-related major complications (severe post-embolization syndrome in 3, non-fatal sepsis in 3, and secondary bacterial peritonitis in 1). The overall major complication rate was 13.2 %, but there were no permanent adverse sequelae or deaths within 30 days. Serum total bilirubin ≥3.0 mg/dL was the only significant risk factor for long hospitalization [hazard ratio (HR) = 4.341, p = .022]. The median survival was 12.2 months. Extrahepatic metastasis (HR = 6.145, p < .001), international normalized ratio (PT-INR) ≥1.20 (HR = 4.564, p < .001), vascular invasion (HR = 3.484, p = .001), and intermediate tumor enhancement (HR = 2.417, p = .019) were significantly associated with shorter survival.ConclusionTACE can be a safe and effective treatment for patients who have HCCs with central bile duct invasion. In particular, long-term survival can be expected if patients have strongly enhancing tumors without poor prognostic factors such as extrahepatic metastasis, PT-INR prolongation, and vascular invasion.

  16. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) and ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), 2015. The European Union summary report on trends and sources of zoonoses, zoonotic agents and food-borne outbreaks in 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helwigh, Birgitte; Porsbo, Lone Jannok; Boysen, Louise

    This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of the zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2014 in 32 European countries (28 Member States (MS) and four non-MS). Campylobacteriosis was the most commonly re......, molluscs and products thereof’. The report further summarises trends and sources along the food chain of tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium bovis, Brucella, Trichinella, Echinococcus, Toxoplasma, rabies, Coxiella burnetii (Q fever), West Nile virus and tularaemia....

  17. EFSA (European Food Safety Authority) and ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), 2015. The European Union summary report on trends and sources of zoonoses, zoonotic agents and food-borne outbreaks in 2014

    OpenAIRE

    Helwigh, Birgitte; Porsbo, Lone Jannok; Boysen, Louise; Bager, Flemming

    2015-01-01

    This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of the zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2014 in 32 European countries (28 Member States (MS) and four non-MS). Campylobacteriosis was the most commonly reported zoonosis with an increase in confirmed human cases in the European Union (EU) since 2008. In food the occurrence of Campylobacter remained high in broiler meat. The decreasing EU trend for conf...

  18. [Pharmacogenetic approaches to predicting the efficiency and safety of amlodipine in patients with arterial hypertension].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sychev, D A; Shih, N V; Kalle, E G; Ryzhikova, K A; Morozova, T E

    2017-10-01

    An open, non-comparative, prospective clinical study was conducted to evaluate the antihypertensive efficacy and tolerability of amlodipine, a calcium antagonist, in patients with arterial hypertension (AH) I-II stages, depending on the genotype for the polymorphic marker C3435T of the ABCB1 gene. The study included 100 patients with AH I-II stages, aged from 45 to 58 years. The initial dose of amlodipine was 5 mg, duration of treatment was 12 weeks. General clinical examination methods, office measurement and daily blood pressure monitoring, tolerance evaluation, and genotyping using the ABCB1 polymorphic marker C3435T by the PCR-RFLP method (polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism) were used. The statistical analysis of results was carried out using the Mann-Whitney U test for quantitative variables, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) for three independent groups of quantitative data. Excellent antihypertensive efficacy with the CC genotype was found in 11.8% patients, with CT - 33.9%, with TT - 43.3%; good - 35.3%, 32.1%, and 33.3% respectively, satisfactory - 52.9%, 34,0% and 23.4% respectively. Six patients with the CT genotype and nine patients with the CC genotype required the increase in the dose to 10 mg. The number of patients with Adverse drug reactions (ADR) were found in 35.3% of patients with the CC genotype, 6.7% with the TT genotype and 11.3% with the CT genotype. The Kruskal-Wallis test revealed significant differences between CC and TT genotypes in the degree of decrease in SBP (p=0.02), antihypertensive efficacy parameter (p=0.02), an increase in dose requirements (p = 0.04) and the incidence of ADR(p=0.05). In AH patients (I-II stage) with the TT genotype of the C3435T gene polymorphism one can expect higher rates of antihypertensive efficacy of amlodipine in combination with a good safety profile and the lowest ADR percentage, while patients with the CC genotype more likely to develop ADR and

  19. An integrated approach to improved toxicity prediction for the safety assessment during preclinical drug development using Hep G2 cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noor, Fozia; Niklas, Jens; Mueller-Vieira, Ursula; Heinzle, Elmar

    2009-01-01

    Efficient and accurate safety assessment of compounds is extremely important in the preclinical development of drugs especially when hepatotoxicty is in question. Multiparameter and time resolved assays are expected to greatly improve the prediction of toxicity by assessing complex mechanisms of toxicity. An integrated approach is presented in which Hep G2 cells and primary rat hepatocytes are compared in frequently used cytotoxicity assays for parent compound toxicity. The interassay variability was determined. The cytotoxicity assays were also compared with a reliable alternative time resolved respirometric assay. The set of training compounds consisted of well known hepatotoxins; amiodarone, carbamazepine, clozapine, diclofenac, tacrine, troglitazone and verapamil. The sensitivity of both cell systems in each tested assay was determined. Results show that careful selection of assay parameters and inclusion of a kinetic time resolved assay improves prediction for non-metabolism mediated toxicity using Hep G2 cells as indicated by a sensitivity ratio of 1. The drugs with EC 50 values 100 μM or lower were considered toxic. The difference in the sensitivity of the two cell systems to carbamazepine which causes toxicity via reactive metabolites emphasizes the importance of human cell based in-vitro assays. Using the described system, primary rat hepatocytes do not offer advantage over the Hep G2 cells in parent compound toxicity evaluation. Moreover, respiration method is non invasive, highly sensitive and allows following the time course of toxicity. Respiration assay could serve as early indicator of changes that subsequently lead to toxicity.

  20. Safety and predictability of conscious sedation in dentistry -- a multi-centre regional audit: South and West Wales experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthukrishnan, A; McGregor, J; Thompson, S

    2013-10-01

    There are no previously published reports of audits in conscious sedation from a group comprising the general dental services (GDS), community dental services (CDS) and hospital dental services (HDS). The main aim of this audit was to assess current practice within the group in relation to the safety and predictability of dental treatment undertaken with the aid of conscious sedation. A total of nine centres collected data prospectively on 1,037 sedation episodes over the course of one year. Audit standards were locally agreed based on current evidence and local experience. They were set at a completion rate of 90% and an adverse incident rate of 2% or less. Based on the data collected, a completion rate of 92% and a minor adverse incident rate of 2.6% were recorded. The participating centres met the standards set locally for this audit. Current practice in the participating centres was found to be safe and predictable. The audit tool is being refined to improve the quality of data collection. Further research and service evaluation is recommended.

  1. Which aspects of safety culture predict incident reporting behavior in neonatal intensive care units? A multilevel analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, Cathelijne; Kollen, Boudewijn J.; van Lingen, Richard A.; Fetter, Willem P. F.; Molendijk, Harry; Kok, J. H.; te Pas, E.; Pas, H.; van der Starre, C.; Bloemendaal, E.; Lopes Cardozo, R. H.; Molenaar, A. M.; Giezen, A.; van Lingen, R. A.; Maat, H. E.; Molendijk, A.; Snijders, C.; Lavrijssen, S.; Mulder, A. L. M.; de Kleine, M. J. K.; Koolen, A. M. P.; Schellekens, M.; Verlaan, W.; Vrancken, S.; Fetter, W. P. F.; Schotman, L.; van der Zwaan, A.; van der Tuijn, Y.; Tibboel, D.; van der Schaaf, T. W.; Klip, H.; Kollen, B. J.

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Safety culture assessments are increasingly used to evaluate patient-safety programs. However, it is not clear which aspects of safety culture are most relevant in understanding incident reporting behavior, and ultimately improving patient safety. The objective of this study was to

  2. Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

  3. Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuiyuan Guo

    Full Text Available We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R0 as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31-50%, 45% (42-48%, and 51% (44-56% among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.

  4. Scalable and Cost-Effective Assignment of Mobile Crowdsensing Tasks Based on Profiling Trends and Prediction: The ParticipAct Living Lab Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellavista, Paolo; Corradi, Antonio; Foschini, Luca; Ianniello, Raffaele

    2015-07-30

    Nowadays, sensor-rich smartphones potentially enable the harvesting of huge amounts of valuable sensing data in urban environments, by opportunistically involving citizens to play the role of mobile virtual sensors to cover Smart City areas of interest. This paper proposes an in-depth study of the challenging technical issues related to the efficient assignment of Mobile Crowd Sensing (MCS) data collection tasks to volunteers in a crowdsensing campaign. In particular, the paper originally describes how to increase the effectiveness of the proposed sensing campaigns through the inclusion of several new facilities, including accurate participant selection algorithms able to profile and predict user mobility patterns, gaming techniques, and timely geo-notification. The reported results show the feasibility of exploiting profiling trends/prediction techniques from volunteers' behavior; moreover, they quantitatively compare different MCS task assignment strategies based on large-scale and real MCS data campaigns run in the ParticipAct living lab, an ongoing MCS real-world experiment that involved more than 170 students of the University of Bologna for more than one year.

  5. Scalable and Cost-Effective Assignment of Mobile Crowdsensing Tasks Based on Profiling Trends and Prediction: The ParticipAct Living Lab Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Bellavista

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, sensor-rich smartphones potentially enable the harvesting of huge amounts of valuable sensing data in urban environments, by opportunistically involving citizens to play the role of mobile virtual sensors to cover Smart City areas of interest. This paper proposes an in-depth study of the challenging technical issues related to the efficient assignment of Mobile Crowd Sensing (MCS data collection tasks to volunteers in a crowdsensing campaign. In particular, the paper originally describes how to increase the effectiveness of the proposed sensing campaigns through the inclusion of several new facilities, including accurate participant selection algorithms able to profile and predict user mobility patterns, gaming techniques, and timely geo-notification. The reported results show the feasibility of exploiting profiling trends/prediction techniques from volunteers’ behavior; moreover, they quantitatively compare different MCS task assignment strategies based on large-scale and real MCS data campaigns run in the ParticipAct living lab, an ongoing MCS real-world experiment that involved more than 170 students of the University of Bologna for more than one year.

  6. Invited review: Current representation and future trends of predicting amino acid utilization in the lactating dairy cow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arriola Apelo, S I; Knapp, J R; Hanigan, M D

    2014-07-01

    tissues that would lead to improved requirement prediction systems. Inclusion of variable individual EAA efficiencies derived from splanchnic and mammary responses to nutrient and hormonal signals should help reduce dietary protein levels. Supplementing reduced crude protein diets with individual EAA should increase gross N efficiency to more than 30%, reducing N excretion by the US dairy industry by 92,000 t annually. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction of flood abnormalities for improved public safety using a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aqil, M; Kita, I; Yano, A; Nishiyama, S

    2006-01-01

    It is widely accepted that an efficient flood alarm system may significantly improve public safety and mitigate economical damages caused by inundations. In this paper, a modified adaptive neuro-fuzzy system is proposed to modify the traditional neuro-fuzzy model. This new method employs a rule-correction based algorithm to replace the error back propagation algorithm that is employed by the traditional neuro-fuzzy method in backward pass calculation. The final value obtained during the backward pass calculation using the rule-correction algorithm is then considered as a mapping function of the learning mechanism of the modified neuro-fuzzy system. Effectiveness of the proposed identification technique is demonstrated through a simulation study on the flood series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. The first four-year data (1987 to 1990) was used for model training/calibration, while the other remaining data (1991 to 2002) was used for testing the model. The number of antecedent flows that should be included in the input variables was determined by two statistical methods, i.e. autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation between the variables. Performance accuracy of the model was evaluated in terms of two statistical indices, i.e. mean average percentage error and root mean square error. The algorithm was developed in a decision support system environment in order to enable users to process the data. The decision support system is found to be useful due to its interactive nature, flexibility in approach, and evolving graphical features, and can be adopted for any similar situation to predict the streamflow. The main data processing includes gauging station selection, input generation, lead-time selection/generation, and length of prediction. This program enables users to process the flood data, to train/test the model using various input options, and to visualize results. The program code consists of a set of files, which can be modified as well to match other

  8. Health Problems during Compulsory Military Service Predict Disability Retirement: A Register-Based Study on Secular Trends during 40 Years of Follow-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frilander, Heikki; Lallukka, Tea; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Heliövaara, Markku; Solovieva, Svetlana

    2016-01-01

    Disability retirement causes a significant burden on the society and affects the well-being of individuals. Early health problems as determinants of disability retirement have received little attention. The objective was to study, whether interrupting compulsory military service is an early indicator of disability retirement among Finnish men and whether seeking medical advice during military service increases the risk of all-cause disability retirement and disability retirement due to mental disorders and musculoskeletal diseases. We also looked at secular trends in these associations. We examined a nationally representative sample of 2069 men, who had entered military service during 1967-1996. We linked military service health records with cause-specific register data on disability retirement from 1968 to 2008. Secular trends were explored in three service time strata. We used the Cox regression model to estimate proportional hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. During the follow-up time altogether 140 (6.8%) men retired due to disability, mental disorders being the most common cause. The men who interrupted service had a remarkably higher cumulative incidence of disability retirement (18.9%). The associations between seeking medical advice during military service and all-cause disability retirement were similar across the three service time cohorts (overall hazard ratio 1.40 per one standard deviation of the number of visits; 95% confidence interval 1.26-1.56). Visits due to mental problems predicted disability retirement due to mental disorders in the men who served between 1987 and 1996 and a tendency for a similar cause-specific association was seen for musculoskeletal diseases in the men who served in 1967-1976. In conclusion, health problems-in particular mental problems-during late adolescence are strong determinants of disability retirement. Call-up examinations and military service provide access to the entire age cohort of men, where

  9. Pharmacokinetics in Drug Discovery: An Exposure-Centred Approach to Optimising and Predicting Drug Efficacy and Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichel, Andreas; Lienau, Philip

    2016-01-01

    The role of pharmacokinetics (PK) in drug discovery is to support the optimisation of the absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) properties of lead compounds with the ultimate goal to attain a clinical candidate which achieves a concentration-time profile in the body that is adequate for the desired efficacy and safety profile. A thorough characterisation of the lead compounds aiming at the identification of the inherent PK liabilities also includes an early generation of PK/PD relationships linking in vitro potency and target exposure/engagement with expression of pharmacological activity (mode-of-action) and efficacy in animal studies. The chapter describes an exposure-centred approach to lead generation, lead optimisation and candidate selection and profiling that focuses on a stepwise generation of an understanding between PK/exposure and PD/efficacy relationships by capturing target exposure or surrogates thereof and cellular mode-of-action readouts in vivo. Once robust PK/PD relationship in animal PD models has been constructed, it is translated to anticipate the pharmacologically active plasma concentrations in patients and the human therapeutic dose and dosing schedule which is also based on the prediction of the PK behaviour in human as described herein. The chapter outlines how the level of confidence in the predictions increases with the level of understanding of both the PK and the PK/PD of the new chemical entities (NCE) in relation to the disease hypothesis and the ability to propose safe and efficacious doses and dosing schedules in responsive patient populations. A sound identification of potential drug metabolism and pharmacokinetics (DMPK)-related development risks allows proposing of an effective de-risking strategy for the progression of the project that is able to reduce uncertainties and to increase the probability of success during preclinical and clinical development.

  10. Safety, efficacy, predictability and stability of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) with a 1000-Hz scanning spot excimer laser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoramnia, Ramin; Salgado, Josefina P; Wuellner, Christian; Donitzky, Christof; Lohmann, Chris P; Winkler von Mohrenfels, Christoph

    2012-09-01

    To evaluate the safety, efficacy, predictability and stability of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) with a 1000-Hz scanning spot excimer laser (Concept System 1000; WaveLight GmbH, Erlangen, Germany). LASIK was performed on twenty eyes with myopia or myopic astigmatism (mean spherical equivalent refraction: -3.97±1.72 dioptres (D); mean cylinder: -0.84±0.77 D) using a microkeratome for flap creation and the Concept System 1000 for photoablation. Patients were examined preoperatively as well as 1, 3 and 6 months after the treatment. Manifest sphere and cylinder, uncorrected (UCDVA) and best corrected (BCDVA) distance visual acuity, corneal topography and pachymetry were analysed. We observed no adverse events that might have been associated with the use of a repetition rate of 1000 Hz. All eyes maintained or had improved BCDVA at 6 months after treatment when compared to preoperative values. Six months after LASIK, UCDVA was 20/20 or better in 85% and 20/25 or better in 100% of the eyes. The spherical equivalent refraction was within ±0.50 D in 95% of the eyes at 6 months after surgery. The refraction stayed stable over time; 95% of the eyes changedLASIK with the prototype 1000-Hz excimer laser was safe, efficient and predictable. The postoperative refraction was stable over time. There were no specific clinical side-effects that might be associated with the use of such a high repetition rate. © 2011 The Authors. Acta Ophthalmologica © 2011 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation.

  11. Trend road safety measures : international course on transportation and road engineering in developing countries. Two-year postgraduate Diploma and M.Sc. programme.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    1991-01-01

    This course focuses mainly on traffic and transport in developing countries, and deals primarily with matters of infrastructure. Road safety and road safety problems are closely related to the construction and operation of the road network. (See also C 1341 - C1346).

  12. Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, N O

    1997-01-01

    The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

  13. Z-LASIK and Trans-PRK for correction of high-grade myopia: safety, efficacy, predictability and clinical outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershoni, Assaf; Mimouni, Michael; Livny, Eitan; Bahar, Irit

    2018-03-12

    The aim of the study was to examine the outcomes of transepithelial photorefractive keratectomy (Trans-PRK) and Femtosecond Laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis (Z-LASIK) for the correction of high myopia. A retrospective cohort study design was used. The study group included 792 eyes with high-grade myopia (- 6.0 diopters or higher) or high-grade myopia with astigmatism that were treated with Z-LASIK or Trans-PRK in 2013 through 2014 in an optical outpatient clinic of a large private medical service. The Trans-PRK group comprised of 674 eyes with a spherical equivalent (SE) of - 7.87 ± 1.46 and the Z-LASIK group comprised of 118 eyes with a SE of - 7.19 ± 0.81 (P PRK group was - 0.06 and - 0.02 in the Z-LASIK group (P = 0.545). Efficacy index values were 0.92 in the Trans-PRK group and 0.95 in the Z-LASIK group (P = 0.083), and corresponding safety index values were 0.95 and 0.97 (P = 0.056). An UCVA of 20/40 or better was achieved in 94.20% of eyes in the Trans-PRK group, and 98.31% in the Z-LASIK group (P = 0.063). The majority of eyes in both the Trans-PRK and Z-LASIK groups were within ± 0.5D of attempted correction: 59.35 and 64.71%, respectively (P = 0.271). Both Trans-PRK and Z-LASIK demonstrated excellent efficacy, safety and predictability profiles, with results comparable and in some cases superior to the current literature. Results of Z-LASIK were slightly better than those of Trans-PRK, though the preoperative SE of the latter was higher.

  14. Comparison of efficacy, safety, and predictability of laser in situ keratomileusis using two laser suites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meidani A

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Alexandra Meidani,1–3 Chara Tzavara3 1Hypervision Laser Centre, 2Eye Day Clinic, 3Department of Hygiene, University of Athens Medical School, Centre for Health Services Research, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Athens, Greece Purpose: The main aim of this study was to compare the efficacy, safety, and predictability of femtosecond laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis performed by two different laser suites in the treatment of myopia for up to 6 months.Methods: In this two-site retrospective nonrandomized study, myopic eyes that underwent laser-assisted in situ keratomileusis using IntraLase FS 60 kHz formed group 1 and those using WaveLight FS200 femtosecond laser system formed group 2. Ablation was performed with Visx Star S4 IR and WaveLight EX500 Excimer lasers, respectively, in groups 1 and 2. Both groups were well matched for age, sex, and mean level of preoperative refractive spherical equivalent (MRSE. Uncorrected distance visual acuity, corrected distance visual acuity, and MRSE were evaluated preoperatively and at 1 week, 1 month, and 6 months after treatment.Results: Fifty-six eyes of 28 patients were included in the study. At 6-month follow-up postop, 78.6% of eyes in group 1 and 92.8% of eyes in group 2 achieved an uncorrected distance visual acuity of 20/20 or better (P=0.252. 35.7% and 50% in group 1 and group 2, respectively, gained one line (P=0.179. No eye lost lines of corrected distance visual acuity. Twenty-five eyes in group 1 (92.7% and 27 eyes in group 2 (96.3% had MRSE within ±0.5 D in the 6-month follow-up (P>0.999. The mean efficacy index at 6 months was similar in group 1 and group 2 (mean 1.10±0.12 [standard deviation] vs 1.10±0.1 (P=0.799. The mean safety index was similar in group 1 and group 2 (mean 1.10±0.10 [standard deviation] vs 1.10±0.09 (P=0.407.Conclusion: The outcomes were excellent between the two laser suites. There were no significant differences at 6-month follow-up postop between the two

  15. Medical students' situational motivation to participate in simulation based team training is predicted by attitudes to patient safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escher, Cecilia; Creutzfeldt, Johan; Meurling, Lisbet; Hedman, Leif; Kjellin, Ann; Felländer-Tsai, Li

    2017-02-10

    Patient safety education, as well as the safety climate at clinical rotations, has an impact on students' attitudes. We explored medical students' self-reported motivation to participate in simulation-based teamwork training (SBTT), with the hypothesis that high scores in patient safety attitudes would promote motivation to SBTT and that intrinsic motivation would increase after training. In a prospective cohort study we explored Swedish medical students' attitudes to patient safety, their motivation to participate in SBTT and how motivation was affected by the training. The setting was an integrated SBTT course during the surgical semester that focused on non-technical skills and safe treatment of surgical emergencies. Data was collected using the Situational Motivation Scale (SIMS) and the Attitudes to Patient Safety Questionnaire (APSQ). We found a positive correlation between students' individual patient safety attitudes and self-reported motivation (identified regulation) to participate in SBTT. We also found that intrinsic motivation increased after training. Female students in our study scored higher than males regarding some of the APSQ sub-scores and the entire group scored higher or on par with comparable international samples. In order to enable safe practice and professionalism in healthcare, students' engagement in patient safety education is important. Our finding that students' patient safety attitudes show a positive correlation to motivation and that intrinsic motivation increases after training underpins patient safety climate and integrated teaching of patient safety issues at medical schools in order to help students develop the knowledge, skills and attitudes required for safe practice.

  16. Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

    OpenAIRE

    Narvydas, A

    2014-01-01

    The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

  17. Guidance for the design and management of a maintenance plan to assure safety and improve the predictability of a DOE nuclear irradiation facility. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, R.S.; Kryter, R.C.; Shepard, R.L.; Smith, O.L.; Upadhyaya, B.R.; Rowan, W.J.

    1994-10-01

    A program is recommended for planning the maintenance of DOE nuclear facilities that will help safety and enhance availability throughout a facility's life cycle. While investigating the requirements for maintenance activities, a major difference was identified between the strategy suitable for a conventional power reactor and one for a research reactor facility: the latter should provide a high degree of predicted availability (referred to hereafter as ''predictability'') to its users, whereas the former should maximize total energy production. These differing operating goals necessitate different maintenance strategies. A strategy for scheduling research reactor facility operation and shutdown for maintenance must balance safety, reliability,and predicted availability. The approach developed here is based on three major elements: (1) a probabilistic risk analysis of the balance between assured reliability and predictability (presented in Appendix C), (2) an assessment of the safety and operational impact of maintenance activities applied to various components of the facility, and (3) a data base of historical and operational information on the performance and requirements for maintenance of various components. These factors are integrated into a set of guidelines for designing a new highly maintainable facility, for preparing flexible schedules for improved maintenance of existing facilities, and for anticipating the maintenance required to extend the life of an aging facility. Although tailored to research reactor facilities, the methodology has broader applicability and may therefore be used to improved the maintenance of power reactors, particularly in anticipation of peak load demands

  18. Prediction of Recreational Safety of the Passaic and Pompton Rivers (NJ) Using Escherichia coli as an Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, A.; Wu, M. S.; Lee, L.

    2017-12-01

    Pathogens are considered the most common cause of impairment for water quality in New Jersey. Contact with waterbodies containing high concentrations of pathogens, accounts for waterborne disease outbreaks not only in the United States but worldwide. This implies a financial burden on the health system both in terms of wellbeing and of treatment costs, for instance. For these reasons, the detection and enumeration of pathogen indicators in recreational waters are part of the water quality and public health monitoring performed by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other government agencies. A high concentration of a pathogen indicator, like Escherichia coli, is commonly used method for assessing water quality in freshwater ecosystems. In the present research, we used the EPA-approved Membrane Filtration Method m-ColiBlue24 to detect E. coli Colony Forming Unit (CFU) in water samples collected at the Pompton and the Passaic rivers during the summer 2016. These are some of the most polluted rivers in New Jersey, located at a highly urbanized area with a high population density. In addition to looking at the magnitude and statistical significance of the variables, a multivariate regression model was applied to estimate threshold values where the value-response relationship changes. Among all the parameters tested (specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, pH, dissolved organic carbon, chlorophyll a, nitrite + nitrate, turbidity, water temperature, precipitation) preliminary results indicate specific conductance and rain as significant. In particular, we found that when the cumulated rainfall level in the preceding 48 hours exceeds 1.27 mm, the predicted probability that the Escherichia coli count will exceed the EPA safety threshold value for primary contact recreation water (126 CFU/100 mL) increases by 0.44. Our approach, not only complements the usual screening approach, but it also provides cheap and quick way of generating information that allows

  19. Trends in risk management in nuclear industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Inn Seock

    1996-01-01

    Safety management may be classified into three dimensions: risk management, accident management, and emergency management. This paper addresses the recent trends of safety management in nuclear industry, focussing on risk management and accident management

  20. The Use of Categorized Time-Trend Reporting of Radiation Oncology Incidents: A Proactive Analytical Approach to Improving Quality and Safety Over Time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, Anthony; Delaney, Geoff P.; Cassapi, Lynette; Barton, Michael

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy is a common treatment for cancer patients. Although incidence of error is low, errors can be severe or affect significant numbers of patients. In addition, errors will often not manifest until long periods after treatment. This study describes the development of an incident reporting tool that allows categorical analysis and time trend reporting, covering first 3 years of use. Methods and Materials: A radiotherapy-specific incident analysis system was established. Staff members were encouraged to report actual errors and near-miss events detected at prescription, simulation, planning, or treatment phases of radiotherapy delivery. Trend reporting was reviewed monthly. Results: Reports were analyzed for the first 3 years of operation (May 2004-2007). A total of 688 reports was received during the study period. The actual error rate was 0.2% per treatment episode. During the study period, the actual error rates reduced significantly from 1% per year to 0.3% per year (p < 0.001), as did the total event report rates (p < 0.0001). There were 3.5 times as many near misses reported compared with actual errors. Conclusions: This system has allowed real-time analysis of events within a radiation oncology department to a reduced error rate through focus on learning and prevention from the near-miss reports. Plans are underway to develop this reporting tool for Australia and New Zealand.

  1. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  2. Standard for administration of stable iodine pilulae. Standard of the nuclear safety commission, action for accident in TEPCO Fukushima-1 and recent European trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Hiroshi

    2011-01-01

    Preventive taking of stable-iodine tablets is effective to avoid thyroid gland disorder due to internal exposure to the radioactive iodine if radioactive iodine is released outside by any nuclear accident. In Japan, the Nuclear Safety Commission proposed the standard of the preventive taking in 2002, and, at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, the head of the local task force instructed to take on the recommendation from the Commission. Author described the action principle of stable-iodine tablets, present concept for the preventive taking, recent change of the concept in Europe for the preventive taking, and some precepts which have shown in past Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster. (J.P.N.)

  3. Tendencias en investigación sobre seguridad y salud laboral: Propuesta metodológica aplicada al sector de la construcción Trends in research about occupational safety and health: Methodology applied to the construction industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gloria Isabel Carvajal Peláez

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se realiza un análisis de las tendencias en investigación sobre seguridad y salud ocupacional aplicadas al sector de la construcción. Se investigaron fuentes publicadas en inglés (1930 -2007 y se encontraron más de 250 artículos. Para clasificar la información, se propone el "ciclo riesgo accidente" formado por cinco pasos que reflejan la realidad de la seguridad laboral en la construcción. Para cada paso, se seleccionaron las publicaciones más representativas y se elaboraron árboles de evolución lógica teniendo en cuenta el contenido, grado de importancia, orden cronológico, aplicación sobre cada tema, etc. Con estos árboles, se pasa de lo general a lo particular en forma cronológica, para demostrar las tendencias actuales en investigación en seguridad y salud en la construcción y podemos concluir que la investigación en este aspecto sigue siendo escasa, tratándose de un campo lleno de oportunidades y con un futuro prometedor.This article analyzes trends in research in occupational safety and health applied to the construction industry. The sources of information published in English (1930-2007 and found more than 250 articles. In order to classify these documents, is proposed the "risk-accident cycle" composes by five steps that reflect the reality of occupational safety and health in the construction industry. For each one of them, the papers more representative were selected and later elaborated a tree of chronological evolution considering aspects such as the content, degree of importance, chronological order, application on each subject, etc. With the elaboration of these trees, show the passage of the general to the particular in chronological form, for demonstrating the actual trends in research in safety and health in the construction. As a final remark, nowadays, research in safety and health in the construction is still very limited, being a field with many opportunities and a promising future.

  4. Could Google Trends Be Used to Predict Methamphetamine-Related Crime? An Analysis of Search Volume Data in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamma, Alex; Schleifer, Roman; Weinmann, Wolfgang; Buadze, Anna; Liebrenz, Michael

    2016-01-01

    To compare the time trends of Google search interest in methamphetamine and criminal offences related to this drug. Google Trends data for the search term "meth" was compared to methamphetamine-related crime statistics (incl. use, possession, and dealing) in Switzerland, Germany, and Austria for the years 2004-2016. Google data was availably monthly. Crime data was available yearly, and monthly values were imputed. On the country level, internet search trends for "meth" roughly paralleled relevant criminal activity. State-level data, which was available for Austria, showed more heterogeneity. Cross-correlations for yearly data almost always peaked at a lag time of 0 and coefficients were mostly between 0.7 and 1.0 on the country level, and between 0.5 to 1.0 on the state level. Monthly cross-correlations based on imputed values were substantially lower, ranging from 0 to 0.6. These results encourage the further evaluation by law enforcement authorities of Google search activity as a possible predictor of methamphetamine-related crime. However, several limitations, in particular the crude temporal resolution of available crime data, precluded a detailed assessment of the relationship between internet search trends and the development of methamphetamine-related crime in central Europe.

  5. Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 04: Predicting waiting times in Radiation Oncology using machine learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joseph, Ackeem; Herrera, David; Hijal, Tarek; Hendren, Laurie; Leung, Alvin; Wainberg, Justin; Sawaf, Marya; Maxim, Gorshkov; Maglieri, Robert; Keshavarz, Mehryar; Kildea, John

    2016-01-01

    We describe a method for predicting waiting times in radiation oncology. Machine learning is a powerful predictive modelling tool that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The patient waiting experience remains one of the most vexing challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick and in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. In radiation oncology, patients typically experience three types of waiting: Waiting at home for their treatment plan to be prepared Waiting in the waiting room for daily radiotherapy Waiting in the waiting room to see a physician in consultation or follow-up These waiting periods are difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided, based on personal experience. In the present era of electronic health records, waiting times need not be so uncertain. At our centre, we have incorporated the electronic treatment records of all previously-treated patients into our machine learning model. We found that the Random Forest Regression model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times (type 2). Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes. The main features that generated the best fit model (from most to least significant) are: Allocated time, median past duration, fraction number and the number of treatment fields.

  6. Sci-Fri AM: Quality, Safety, and Professional Issues 04: Predicting waiting times in Radiation Oncology using machine learning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joseph, Ackeem; Herrera, David; Hijal, Tarek; Hendren, Laurie; Leung, Alvin; Wainberg, Justin; Sawaf, Marya; Maxim, Gorshkov; Maglieri, Robert; Keshavarz, Mehryar; Kildea, John [McGill University Health Centre (Canada)

    2016-08-15

    We describe a method for predicting waiting times in radiation oncology. Machine learning is a powerful predictive modelling tool that benefits from large, potentially complex, datasets. The essence of machine learning is to predict future outcomes by learning from previous experience. The patient waiting experience remains one of the most vexing challenges facing healthcare. Waiting time uncertainty can cause patients, who are already sick and in pain, to worry about when they will receive the care they need. In radiation oncology, patients typically experience three types of waiting: Waiting at home for their treatment plan to be prepared Waiting in the waiting room for daily radiotherapy Waiting in the waiting room to see a physician in consultation or follow-up These waiting periods are difficult for staff to predict and only rough estimates are typically provided, based on personal experience. In the present era of electronic health records, waiting times need not be so uncertain. At our centre, we have incorporated the electronic treatment records of all previously-treated patients into our machine learning model. We found that the Random Forest Regression model provides the best predictions for daily radiotherapy treatment waiting times (type 2). Using this model, we achieved a median residual (actual minus predicted value) of 0.25 minutes and a standard deviation residual of 6.5 minutes. The main features that generated the best fit model (from most to least significant) are: Allocated time, median past duration, fraction number and the number of treatment fields.

  7. Quantified reliability and risk assessment methodology in safety evaluation and licensing: survey of practice and trends in E.C. countries; partial contribution in decision making, perpective of safety goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vinck, W.F.

    1982-01-01

    Quantified reliability analysis of structures and systems and the quantified risk-concept is increasingly developed and applied in safety evaluation and in the licensing/regulatory process where deterministic approaches are however still predominant. A description of the types of application and a survey of the diversified opinions and the problem areas (e.g. the validity of input data, uncertainties in consequence modelling, human factors, common mode failures, etc.) are given. The significance of quantified risk assessment and comparisons, as one of the contributors in the solution to acceptability of modern technology such as nuclear power production, is discussed. Other contributions, such as benefit assessment and cost-efficiency of risk reduction, are also put into perspective within the decision-making process and in the problem of actual acceptance of new technologies. The growing need of developing and agreeing on overall safety objectives (how safe is safe enough) is finally discussed, in the light of the increasing diversity of approaches in the interconnected areas of accident hypotheses/sequences, siting parameters and technical bases for emergency planning; the latter problem being also closely connected to decisional processes for acceptability and to actual acceptance

  8. Trends in the quality of care for elderly people with type 2 diabetes: the need for improvements in safety and quality (the 2001 and 2007 ENTRED Surveys).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pornet, Carole; Bourdel-Marchasson, Isabelle; Lecomte, Pierre; Eschwège, Eveline; Romon, Isabelle; Fosse, Sandrine; Assogba, Frank; Roudier, Candice; Fagot-Campagna, Anne

    2011-04-01

    This study aimed to characterize the sociodemographic data, health status, quality of care and 6-year trends in elderly people with type 2 diabetes. This study used two French cross-sectional representative surveys of adults of all ages with all types of diabetes (Entred 2001 and 2007), which combined medical claims, and patient and medical provider questionnaires. The 2007 data in patients with type 2 diabetes aged 65 years or over (n=1766) were described and compared with the 2001 data (n=1801). Since 2001, obesity has increased (35% in 2007; +7 points since 2001) while written nutritional advice was less often provided (59%; -6 points). Mean HbA(1c) (7.1%; -0.2%), blood pressure (135/76 mmHg; -4/-3 mmHg) and LDL cholesterol (1.04 g/L; -0.21 g/L) declined, while the use of medication increased: at least two OHAs, 34% (+4 points); OHA(s) and insulin combined, 10% (+4 points); antihypertensive treatment, 83% (+4 points); and statins 48% (+26 points). Severe hypoglycaemia remained frequent (10% had an event at least once a year). The overall prevalence of complications increased. Renal complications were not monitored carefully enough (missing value for albuminuria: 42%; -4.5 points), and 46% of those with a glomerular filtration rate less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m² were taking metformin. Elderly people with type 2 diabetes are receiving better quality of care and have better control of cardiovascular risk factors than before. However, improvement is still required, in particular by performing better screening for complications. In this patient population, it is important to carefully monitor the risks for hypoglycaemia, hypotension, malnutrition and contraindications related to renal function. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  9. Pitfalls and Precautions When Using Predicted Failure Data for Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risk for Human Rated Launch Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Glen S.; Hark, Frank; Stott, James

    2016-01-01

    Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.

  10. Predicting Stress Related to Basic Needs and Safety in Darfur Refugee Camps: A Structural and Social Ecological Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Andrew; Annan, Jeannie

    2010-03-01

    The research on the determinants of mental health among refugees has been largely limited to traumatic events, but recent work has indicated that the daily hassles of living in refugee camps also play a large role. Using hierarchical linear modelling to account for refugees nested within camp blocks, this exploratory study attempted to model stress surrounding safety and acquiring basic needs and functional impairment among refugees from Darfur living in Chad, using individual-level demographics (e.g., gender, age, presence of a debilitating injury), structural factors (e.g., distance from block to distribution centre), and social ecological variables (e.g., percentage of single women within a block). We found that stress concerning safety concerns, daily hassles, and functional impairment were associated with several individual-level demographic factors (e.g., gender), but also with interactions between block-level and individual-level factors as well (e.g., injury and distance to distribution centre). Findings are discussed in terms of monitoring and evaluation of refugee services.

  11. Skiing trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

    1980-01-01

    A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

  12. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  13. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  14. Prediction of concentration and model validation - key issues in assessment of long term safety for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S.; Dverstorp, B.; Woerman, A.

    2008-01-01

    Post-closure safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories involve radioecological modelling for en,underground source term. In this paper we discuss critical aspects concerning process understanding and justification of simplified radioecological models used for such safety assessments. This study is part of the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority's (SSI) work on reviewing the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co's (SKB) most recent safety assessment, SR-Can. One of the most challenging tasks in assessments of environmental doses and risk from an underground repository is to estimate radionuclide activity concentrations in various geologic strata in the future. For example, little is known about transport pathways through the quaternary deposits to the discharge points in surface waters and other recipients in the biosphere. Traditionally simplified compartmental models are used in safety assessment to describe the fate of radio-nuclides in surface environment. The possibility to test such models against more detailed process models and site specific data is of key importance for confidence in the safety assessment. As part of SSI's review of SR-Can, alternative modelling approaches were developed to explore the importance of transport process descriptions in the assessment models. The modelling results were compared with the Landscape Dose Factors (LDFs) derived by SKB in SR-Can. LDFs is a new methodology adapted by SKB in SR-Can. The LDFs are defined in the units of Sv/y per Bq/y and express all the radiological information about individual epository sites and ecosystems as a single, radionuclide-specific, number that relates geosphere releases to radiological dose. Further, we suggest a method for validating model parameters using data from field tracer tests. In two companion papers we present the underlying model framework for pathway analyses and a newly developed numerical module within the numerical software Ecolego Toolbox. Transport models

  15. Safety, Efficacy, Predictability and Stability Indices of Photorefractive Keratectomy for Correction of Myopic Astigmatism with Plano-Scan and Tissue-Saving Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrdad Mohammadpour

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To assess the safety, efficacy and predictability of photorefractive keratectomy (PRK [Tissue-saving (TS versus Plano-scan (PS ablation algorithms] of Technolas 217z excimer laser for correction of myopic astigmatismMethods: In this retrospective study one hundred and seventy eyes of 85 patients (107 eyes (62.9% with PS and 63 eyes (37.1% with TS algorithm were included. TS algorithm was applied for those with central corneal thickness less than 500 µm or estimated residual stromal thickness less than 420 µm. Mitomycin C (MMC was applied for 120 eyes (70.6%; in case of an ablation depth more than 60 μm and/or astigmatic correction more than one diopter (D. Mean sphere, cylinder, spherical equivalent (SE refraction, uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA were measured preoperatively, and 4 weeks,12 weeks and 24 weeks postoperatively.Results: One, three and six months postoperatively, 60%, 92.9%, 97.5% of eyes had UCVA of 20/20 or better, respectively. Mean preoperative and 1, 3, 6 months postoperative SE were -3.48±1.28 D (-1.00 to -8.75, -0.08±0.62D, -0.02±0.57 and -0.004± 0.29, respectively. And also, 87.6%, 94.1% and 100% were within ±1.0 D of emmetropia and 68.2, 75.3, 95% were within ±0.5 of emmetropia. The safety and efficacy indices were 0.99 and 0.99 at 12 weeks and 1.009 and 0.99 at 24 weeks, respectively. There was no clinically or statistically significant difference between the outcomes of PS or TS algorithms or between those with or without MMC in either group in terms of safety, efficacy, predictability or stability. Dividing the eyes with subjective SE≤4 D and SE≥4 D postoperatively, there was no significant difference between the predictability of the two groups. There was no intra- or postoperative complication.Conclusion: Outcomes of PRK for correction of myopic astigmatism showed great promise with both PS and TS algorithms.

  16. Temporal Trends in Disease Severity and Predicted Surgical Risk at the Time of Referral for Echocardiography in Patients Diagnosed with Aortic Stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ersboll, Mads; Samad, Zainab; Al Enezi, Fawaz

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common underlying pathology in patients undergoing heart valve surgery, with an expected increasing prevalence among the aging population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified the temporal trends in referral patterns, disease severity, and assoc......BACKGROUND: Calcific aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common underlying pathology in patients undergoing heart valve surgery, with an expected increasing prevalence among the aging population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We identified the temporal trends in referral patterns, disease severity......, and associated surgical risk among patients with AS between January 1, 1995 and December 31, 2012 at the Duke University Hospital. A total of 6103 patients had a finding of mild (n = 3303), moderate (n = 1648), or severe AS (n = 1152) in a native aortic valve. Overall presence of severe AS increased...... with a finding of severe AS, the proportion of patients aged older than 80 years increased to 51.0% in the most recent time period (2010-2012) compared with 32.6% in the preceding time period (P proportion of patients with a logistic EuroSCORE greater than 20...

  17. Trends in Internet Marketing

    OpenAIRE

    Panchanathan, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    Internet marketing involves the usage of the Internet to market and sell goods or services. In this thesis we wished to seek answers for the following questions with the help of web, email surveys taking into consideration consumer perspective, company perspective and 3rd party internet marketing agency perspective. Our survey sample was based on a small set of companies, consumers and internet marketing agencies. The survey results helped us in predicting the trends in internet marketing. We...

  18. Power reactor design trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, W.J.

    1985-01-01

    Cascade and Pulse Star represent new trends in ICF power reactor design that have emerged in the last few years. The most recent embodiments of these two concepts, and that of the HYLIFE design with which they will compare them, are shown. All three reactors depend upon protecting structural elements from neutrons, x rays and debris by injecting massive amounts of shielding material inside the reaction chamber. However, Cascade and Pulse Star introduce new ideas to improve the economics, safety, and environmental impact of ICF reactors. They also pose different development issues and thus represent technological alternatives to HYLIFE

  19. Industry trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    This section discusses the US energy supply and demand situation including projections for energy use, the clean coal industry (constraints of regulation on investment in new technologies, technology trends, and current pollution control efficiency), opportunities in clean coal technology (Phase 2 requirements of Title 4 of the Clean Air Act, scrubber demand for lime and limestone, and demand for low sulfur coal), and the international market of clean coal technologies

  20. SEURAT: Safety Evaluation Ultimately Replacing Animal Testing--recommendations for future research in the field of predictive toxicology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daston, George; Knight, Derek J; Schwarz, Michael; Gocht, Tilman; Thomas, Russell S; Mahony, Catherine; Whelan, Maurice

    2015-01-01

    The development of non-animal methodology to evaluate the potential for a chemical to cause systemic toxicity is one of the grand challenges of modern science. The European research programme SEURAT is active in this field and will conclude its first phase, SEURAT-1, in December 2015. Drawing on the experience gained in SEURAT-1 and appreciating international advancement in both basic and regulatory science, we reflect here on how SEURAT should evolve and propose that further research and development should be directed along two complementary and interconnecting work streams. The first work stream would focus on developing new 'paradigm' approaches for regulatory science. The goal here is the identification of 'critical biological targets' relevant for toxicity and to test their suitability to be used as anchors for predicting toxicity. The second work stream would focus on integration and application of new approach methods for hazard (and risk) assessment within the current regulatory 'paradigm', aiming for acceptance of animal-free testing strategies by regulatory authorities (i.e. translating scientific achievements into regulation). Components for both work streams are discussed and may provide a structure for a future research programme in the field of predictive toxicology.

  1. Pre-existing IgG antibodies cross-reacting with the Fab region of infliximab predict efficacy and safety of infliximab therapy in inflammatory bowel disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steenholdt, Casper; Palarasah, Yaseelan; Bendtzen, Klaus

    2013-01-01

    are common and may cross-react with the murine part of IFX. AIM: To investigate if Abs binding to IFX's Fab region (IFX-Fab) are present in IBD patients before exposure to IFX, and whether they predict efficacy and safety of IFX therapy. METHODS: Observational, retrospective cohort study of patients with CD...... (n = 29) and UC (n = 22). RESULTS: Pre-treatment levels of IFX-Fab reactive IgG Abs were significantly lower in CD patients in remission after 1 year of maintenance IFX (median 91 mU/L, n = 8) than in the rest of the patients (639 mU/L, n = 21; P ...

  2. Four-hour quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction-based comprehensive chromosome screening and accumulating evidence of accuracy, safety, predictive value, and clinical efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treff, Nathan R; Scott, Richard T

    2013-03-15

    Embryonic comprehensive chromosomal euploidy may represent a powerful biomarker to improve the success of IVF. However, there are a number of aneuploidy screening strategies to consider, including different technologic platforms with which to interrogate the embryonic DNA, and different embryonic developmental stages from which DNA can be analyzed. Although there are advantages and disadvantages associated with each strategy, a series of experiments producing evidence of accuracy, safety, clinical predictive value, and clinical efficacy indicate that trophectoderm biopsy and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-based comprehensive chromosome screening (CCS) may represent a useful strategy to improve the success of IVF. This Biomarkers in Reproductive Medicine special issue review summarizes the accumulated experience with the development and clinical application of a 4-hour blastocyst qPCR-based CCS technology. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, J.; Kim, J. Y. [Chungnam Nat. Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2006-06-15

    FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system.

  4. Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, J.; Kim, J. Y.

    2006-06-01

    FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system

  5. Final Results of the Telaprevir Access Program: FibroScan Values Predict Safety and Efficacy in Hepatitis C Patients with Advanced Fibrosis or Cirrhosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonia Lepida

    Full Text Available Liver stiffness determined by transient elastography is correlated with hepatic fibrosis stage and has high accuracy for detecting severe fibrosis and cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis C patients. We evaluated the clinical value of baseline FibroScan values for the prediction of safety and efficacy of telaprevir-based therapy in patients with advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in the telaprevir Early Access Program HEP3002.1,772 patients with HCV-1 and bridging fibrosis or cirrhosis were treated with telaprevir plus pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin (PR for 12 weeks followed by PR alone, the total treatment duration depending on virological response and previous response type. Liver fibrosis stage was determined either by liver biopsy or by non-invasive markers. 1,282 patients (72% had disease stage assessed by FibroScan; among those 46% were classified as Metavir F3 at baseline and 54% as F4.Overall, 1,139 patients (64% achieved a sustained virological response (SVR by intention-to-treat analysis. Baseline FibroScan values were tested for association with SVR and the occurrence of adverse events. By univariate analysis, higher baseline FibroScan values were predictive of lower sustained virological response rates and treatment-related anemia. By multivariate analysis, FibroScan was no longer statistically significant as an independent predictor, but higher FibroScan values were correlated with the occurrence of infections and serious adverse events.FibroScan has a limited utility as a predictor of safety and efficacy in patients treated with telaprevir-based triple therapy. Nevertheless it can be used in association with other clinical and biological parameters to help determine patients who will benefit from the triple regiments.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01508286.

  6. Thermal reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-06-01

    Information is presented concerning new trends in licensing; seismic considerations and system structural behavior; TMI-2 risk assessment and thermal hydraulics; statistical assessment of potential accidents and verification of computational methods; issues with respect to improved safety; human factors in nuclear power plant operation; diagnostics and activities in support of recovery; LOCA transient analysis; unresolved safety issues and other safety considerations; and fission product transport

  7. Thermal reactor safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-06-01

    Information is presented concerning new trends in licensing; seismic considerations and system structural behavior; TMI-2 risk assessment and thermal hydraulics; statistical assessment of potential accidents and verification of computational methods; issues with respect to improved safety; human factors in nuclear power plant operation; diagnostics and activities in support of recovery; LOCA transient analysis; unresolved safety issues and other safety considerations; and fission product transport.

  8. Buffering social influence: neural correlates of response inhibition predict driving safety in the presence of a peer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cascio, Christopher N; Carp, Joshua; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Tinney, Francis J; Bingham, C Raymond; Shope, Jean T; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Pradhan, Anuj K; Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Falk, Emily B

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is a period characterized by increased sensitivity to social cues, as well as increased risk-taking in the presence of peers. For example, automobile crashes are the leading cause of death for adolescents, and driving with peers increases the risk of a fatal crash. Growing evidence points to an interaction between neural systems implicated in cognitive control and social and emotional context in predicting adolescent risk. We tested such a relationship in recently licensed teen drivers. Participants completed an fMRI session in which neural activity was measured during a response inhibition task, followed by a separate driving simulator session 1 week later. Participants drove alone and with a peer who was randomly assigned to express risk-promoting or risk-averse social norms. The experimentally manipulated social context during the simulated drive moderated the relationship between individual differences in neural activity in the hypothesized cognitive control network (right inferior frontal gyrus, BG) and risk-taking in the driving context a week later. Increased activity in the response inhibition network was not associated with risk-taking in the presence of a risky peer but was significantly predictive of safer driving in the presence of a cautious peer, above and beyond self-reported susceptibility to peer pressure. Individual differences in recruitment of the response inhibition network may allow those with stronger inhibitory control to override risky tendencies when in the presence of cautious peers. This relationship between social context and individual differences in brain function expands our understanding of neural systems involved in top-down cognitive control during adolescent development.

  9. 10. colloquium on aspects of chemical and physical safety engineering. Current trends in safety engineering - research findings and legal boundary conditions - new options for large-scale experiments; 10. Kolloquium zu Fragen der chemischen und physikalischen Sicherheitstechnik. Aktuelle Entwicklungen in der Sicherheitstechnik - Forschungsergebnisse und gesetzliches Umfeld - neue Moeglichkeiten fuer Grossversuche

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    Since 1981, BAM and PTB have been hosting of this series of colloquia, at which attendants were informed on current news and trends in chemical and physical safety engineering. This volume informs on explosion protection to prevent formation of explosive solvent/vapour/air mixtures in dryers, ignition source safety of ga/air, dust/air, and dust layers, sudden ignition processes in hydrogen/air mixtures, test methods, influencing parameters of the hazardous properties of ammonium nitrate and materials containing it, fire behaviour and fire hazards of bulk goods and specific materials, problems in the application of new technical rules and directives on a national and European level, and new approaches to probabilistic risk assessment for safe design of gas stores. At this anniversary meeting, the attendants were also given the opportunity to visit the BAM test facilities at Horstwalde, about 50 km south of Berlin. This test site, with an area of 12 km{sup 2}, has an explosion test area with a diameter of 400 m for fire and explosion tests up to 150 kg TNT. (orig.)

  10. Ageing management by probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Das, M.; Bhawal, R.N.; Maiti, S.C.

    1994-01-01

    The process and safety system of a nuclear power plant must achieve the reliability/availability target throughout the plant life or for extended plant life. It is therefore necessary to assess the trend of component or system ageing and to take preventive measures so that ageing effect can be counter balanced. In this paper a mathematical model has been established to predict ageing effect and to find out time dependent inspection or test interval to upgrade the system availability. (author). 5 figs

  11. Radiation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Riessen, A.

    2002-01-01

    Full text: Experience has shown that modem, fully enclosed, XRF and XRD units are generally safe. This experience may lead to complacency and ultimately a lowering of standards which may lead to accidents. Maintaining awareness of radiation safety issues is thus an important role for all radiation safety officers. With the ongoing progress in technology, a greater number of radiation workers are more likely to use a range of instruments/techniques - eg portable XRF, neutron beam analysis, and synchrotron radiation analysis. The source for each of these types of analyses is different and necessitates an understanding of the associated dangers as well as use of specific radiation badges. The trend of 'suitcase science' is resulting in scientists receiving doses from a range of instruments and facilities with no coordinated approach to obtain an integrated dose reading for an individual. This aspect of radiation safety needs urgent attention. Within Australia a divide is springing up between those who work on Commonwealth property and those who work on State property. For example a university staff member may operate irradiating equipment on a University campus and then go to a CSIRO laboratory to operate similar equipment. While at the University State regulations apply and while at CSIRO Commonwealth regulations apply. Does this individual require two badges? Is there a need to obtain two licences? The application of two sets of regulations causes unnecessary confusion and increases the workload of radiation safety officers. Radiation safety officers need to introduce risk management strategies to ensure that both existing and new procedures result in risk minimisation. A component of this strategy includes ongoing education and revising of regulations. AXAA may choose to contribute to both of these activities as a service to its members as well as raising the level of radiation safety for all radiation workers. Copyright (2002) Australian X-ray Analytical

  12. Predicting Extreme Droughts in Savannah Africa: A Comparison of Proxy and Direct Measures in Detecting Biomass Fluctuations, Trends and Their Causes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Western, David; Mose, Victor N; Worden, Jeffrey; Maitumo, David

    2015-01-01

    We monitored pasture biomass on 20 permanent plots over 35 years to gauge the reliability of rainfall and NDVI as proxy measures of forage shortfalls in a savannah ecosystem. Both proxies are reliable indicators of pasture biomass at the onset of dry periods but fail to predict shortfalls in prolonged dry spells. In contrast, grazing pressure predicts pasture deficits with a high degree of accuracy. Large herbivores play a primary role in determining the severity of pasture deficits and variation across habitats. Grazing pressure also explains oscillations in plant biomass unrelated to rainfall. Plant biomass has declined steadily and biomass per unit of rainfall has fallen by a third, corresponding to a doubling in grazing intensity over the study period. The rising probability of forage deficits fits local pastoral perceptions of an increasing frequency of extreme shortfalls. The decline in forage is linked to sedentarization, range loss and herbivore compression into drought refuges, rather than climate change. The results show that the decline in rangeland productivity and increasing frequency of pasture shortfalls can be ameliorated by better husbandry practices and reinforces the need for ground monitoring to complement remote sensing in forecasting pasture shortfalls.

  13. 2014 New Trends in Fatigue and Fracture Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Milovic, Ljubica

    2017-01-01

    This book is a compilation of selected papers from the 2014 New Trends in Fatigue and Fracture (NT2F14) Conference, which was held in Belgrade, Serbia. This prestigious conference brought together delegates from around the globe to discuss how to characterize, predict and analyze the fatigue and fracture of engineering materials, components, and structures using theoretical, experimental, numerical and practical approaches. It highlights some important new trends in fracture mechanics presented at the conference, such as: • two-parameter fracture mechanics, arising from the coupling of fracture toughness and stress constraints • high-performance steel for gas and oil transportation and production (pressure vessels and boilers) • safety and reliability of welded joints This book includes 12 contributions from well-known international scientists and a special tribute dedicated to the scientific contributions of Stojan Sedmark, who passed away in 2014.

  14. Playground Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Prevention Fall Prevention Playground Safety Poisoning Prevention Road Traffic Safety Sports Safety Get Email Updates To receive ... at the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s Playground Safety website . References U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission. Injuries and ...

  15. Extended analysis of Br VIII and predicted trends for the n=4, Δn=0 transistions of nickel-like ions (Kr IX-Mo XV)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wyart, J.F.; Ryabtsev, A.N.

    1986-01-01

    More than one hundred lines of Br VIII have been classified in the spectral region 416-824 A, from which all levels of 3d 9 4d (except 1 S 0 ) have been found. The energy levels of the configurations 3d 9 4s, 3d 9 4p and 3d 9 4d have been interpreted from Zn III to Mo XV by means of the Slater-Condon theory and of generalized least squares techniques and the root mean square deviations are 8, 51 and 40 cm -1 respectively. The strongest lines of the 4s-4p and 4p-4d transitions are predicted from Kr IX to Mo XV. (orig.)

  16. 基于发展趋势和认知程度的区间灰数预测%Prediction model for interval grey number based on trend and cognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    袁潮清; 刘思峰; 张可

    2011-01-01

    In fact the grey prediction models such as GM(1,1) deal with the white number sequence rather than grey number sequence. Meanwhile, interval grey number is very important in grey system. The trend and cognition of the interval grey number sequence are defined. An interval grey number sequence is transferred into the trend and cognition of interval grey number sequence, and then the interval grey number sequence is predicted with them, which can avoid the calculation of interval grey number and fully use the information embedded in the grey sequence. Finally, an example is given to show the effectiveness of the model.%以GM(1,1)模型为代表的灰色预测模型实际上是对白数的建模和预测,而不是对区间灰数的建模和预测.发展趋势和认知程度两个维度可以很好地描述区间灰数序列,对此,可先将区间灰数序列转化成相应的发展趋势序列和认知程度,然后对区间灰数序列进行预测.这样,既避免了区间灰数预测过程中的灰数运算问题,又充分利用了区间灰数序列自身所包含的信息.通过具体实例验证了所建模型的有效性.

  17. A nuclear safety in 21 century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmachkin, V.S.

    2003-01-01

    In the paper some topics of nuclear safety are discussed, namely current situation in the world energetics and a potential of nuclear energy for sustainable development of the world, Nuclear Safety Standards and modern trends in Safety Regulation, Radiation Protection Standards are rather conservative, are based on disputable approaches and have to be more pragmatic, necessity to overcome the syndromes of awful consequences of nuclear accidents at nuclear plants, residual risks of nuclear accidents have to be covered by clear compulsory insurance actions. It is shown, that now it is worthwhile to consider efficiency of existing methods of nuclear safety regulation. It is possible, that an idea of guaranteed safety [1] could become a new approach to nuclear safety. It is based on practically total elimination of severe accidents and insurance of residual risks of nuclear accidents. The realization of such idea necessitates the consideration of all spectrum of initiating events, human errors and man-made actions, more realistically predicting consequences of accidents and the probable economical detriments. It will be a benefit for gaining public support to nuclear power. (author)

  18. High Burnup Fuel Performance and Safety Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Je Keun; Lee, Chan Bok; Kim, Dae Ho (and others)

    2007-03-15

    The worldwide trend of nuclear fuel development is to develop a high burnup and high performance nuclear fuel with high economies and safety. Because the fuel performance evaluation code, INFRA, has a patent, and the superiority for prediction of fuel performance was proven through the IAEA CRP FUMEX-II program, the INFRA code can be utilized with commercial purpose in the industry. The INFRA code was provided and utilized usefully in the universities and relevant institutes domesticallly and it has been used as a reference code in the industry for the development of the intrinsic fuel rod design code.

  19. Accident prediction models for rural junctions on four European countries. Road Infrastructure Safety Management Evaluation Tools (RISMET), Deliverable No. 6.1.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Azeredo Lopes, S. de & Lourenço Cardoso, J.

    2014-01-01

    The "Road Infrastructure Safety Management Evaluation Tools (RISMET)" project targets objective A (Development of evaluation tools) of the Joint Call for Proposals for Safety at the Heart of Road Design ("The Call"). This project aims at developing suitable road safety engineering evaluation tools

  20. Safety KPIs - Monitoring of safety performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Lališ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to provide brief overview of aviation safety development focusing on modern trends represented by implementation of Safety Key Performance Indicators. Even though aviation is perceived as safe means of transport, it is still struggling with its complexity given by long-term growth and robustness which it has reached today. Thus nowadays safety issues are much more complex and harder to handle than ever before. We are more and more concerned about organizational factors and control mechanisms which have potential to further increase level of aviation safety. Within this paper we will not only introduce the concept of Key Performance Indicators in area of aviation safety as an efficient control mechanism, but also analyse available legislation and documentation. Finally we will propose complex set of indicators which could be applied to Czech Air Navigation Service Provider.

  1. Conservatism and the neural circuitry of threat: economic conservatism predicts greater amygdala–BNST connectivity during periods of threat vs safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muftuler, L Tugan; Larson, Christine L

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Political conservatism is associated with an increased negativity bias, including increased attention and reactivity toward negative and threatening stimuli. Although the human amygdala has been implicated in the response to threatening stimuli, no studies to date have investigated whether conservatism is associated with altered amygdala function toward threat. Furthermore, although an influential theory posits that connectivity between the amygdala and bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNST) is important in initiating the response to sustained or uncertain threat, whether individual differences in conservatism modulate this connectivity is unknown. To test whether conservatism is associated with increased reactivity in neural threat circuitry, we measured participants’ self-reported social and economic conservatism and asked them to complete high-resolution fMRI scans while under threat of an unpredictable shock and while safe. We found that economic conservatism predicted greater connectivity between the BNST and a cluster of voxels in the left amygdala during threat vs safety. These results suggest that increased amygdala–BNST connectivity during threat may be a key neural correlate of the enhanced negativity bias found in conservatism. PMID:29126127

  2. Conservatism and the neural circuitry of threat: economic conservatism predicts greater amygdala-BNST connectivity during periods of threat vs safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Walker S; Muftuler, L Tugan; Larson, Christine L

    2018-01-01

    Political conservatism is associated with an increased negativity bias, including increased attention and reactivity toward negative and threatening stimuli. Although the human amygdala has been implicated in the response to threatening stimuli, no studies to date have investigated whether conservatism is associated with altered amygdala function toward threat. Furthermore, although an influential theory posits that connectivity between the amygdala and bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (BNST) is important in initiating the response to sustained or uncertain threat, whether individual differences in conservatism modulate this connectivity is unknown. To test whether conservatism is associated with increased reactivity in neural threat circuitry, we measured participants' self-reported social and economic conservatism and asked them to complete high-resolution fMRI scans while under threat of an unpredictable shock and while safe. We found that economic conservatism predicted greater connectivity between the BNST and a cluster of voxels in the left amygdala during threat vs safety. These results suggest that increased amygdala-BNST connectivity during threat may be a key neural correlate of the enhanced negativity bias found in conservatism. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

  3. Polymer adhesion predictions for oral dosage forms to enhance drug administration safety. Part 3: Review of in vitro and in vivo methods used to predict esophageal adhesion and transit time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drumond, Nélio; Stegemann, Sven

    2018-05-01

    The oral cavity is frequently used to administer pharmaceutical drug products. This route of administration is seen as the most accessible for the majority of patients and supports an independent therapy management. For current oral dosage forms under development, the prediction of their unintended mucoadhesive properties and esophageal transit profiles would contribute for future administration safety, as concerns regarding unintended adhesion of solid oral dosage forms (SODF) during oro-esophageal transit still remain. Different in vitro methods that access mucoadhesion of polymers and pharmaceutical preparations have been proposed over the years. The same methods might be used to test non-adhesive systems and contribute for developing safe-to-swallow technologies. Previous works have already investigated the suitability of non-animal derived in vitro methods to assess such properties. The aim of this work was to review the in vitro methodology available in the scientific literature that used animal esophageal tissue to evaluate mucoadhesion and esophageal transit of pharmaceutical preparations. Furthermore, in vivo methodology is also discussed. Since none of the in vitro methods developed are able to mimic the complex swallowing process and oro-esophageal transit, in vivo studies in humans remain as the gold standard. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Predictive toxicology in drug safety

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xu, Jinghai J; Urban, Laszlo

    2011-01-01

    .... It provides information on the present knowledge of drug side effects and their mitigation strategy during drug discovery, gives guidance for risk assessment, and promotes evidence-based toxicology...

  5. Software system safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uber, James G.

    1988-01-01

    Software itself is not hazardous, but since software and hardware share common interfaces there is an opportunity for software to create hazards. Further, these software systems are complex, and proven methods for the design, analysis, and measurement of software safety are not yet available. Some past software failures, future NASA software trends, software engineering methods, and tools and techniques for various software safety analyses are reviewed. Recommendations to NASA are made based on this review.

  6. An empirical tool to evaluate the safety of cyclists: Community based, macro-level collision prediction models using negative binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Feng; Lovegrove, Gordon

    2013-12-01

    Today, North American governments are more willing to consider compact neighborhoods with increased use of sustainable transportation modes. Bicycling, one of the most effective modes for short trips with distances less than 5km is being encouraged. However, as vulnerable road users (VRUs), cyclists are more likely to be injured when involved in collisions. In order to create a safe road environment for them, evaluating cyclists' road safety at a macro level in a proactive way is necessary. In this paper, different generalized linear regression methods for collision prediction model (CPM) development are reviewed and previous studies on micro-level and macro-level bicycle-related CPMs are summarized. On the basis of insights gained in the exploration stage, this paper also reports on efforts to develop negative binomial models for bicycle-auto collisions at a community-based, macro-level. Data came from the Central Okanagan Regional District (CORD), of British Columbia, Canada. The model results revealed two types of statistical associations between collisions and each explanatory variable: (1) An increase in bicycle-auto collisions is associated with an increase in total lane kilometers (TLKM), bicycle lane kilometers (BLKM), bus stops (BS), traffic signals (SIG), intersection density (INTD), and arterial-local intersection percentage (IALP). (2) A decrease in bicycle collisions was found to be associated with an increase in the number of drive commuters (DRIVE), and in the percentage of drive commuters (DRP). These results support our hypothesis that in North America, with its current low levels of bicycle use (macro-level CPMs. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Nuclear Safety Review 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-07-15

    The Nuclear Safety Review 2013 focuses on the dominant nuclear safety trends, issues and challenges in 2012. The Executive Overview provides crosscutting and worldwide nuclear safety information along with a summary of the major sections covered in this report. Sections A-E of this report cover improving radiation, transport and waste safety; strengthening safety in nuclear installations; improving regulatory infrastructure and effectiveness; enhancing emergency preparedness and response (EPR); and civil liability for nuclear damage. The Appendix provides details on the activities of the Commission on Safety Standards (CSS), and activities relevant to the IAEA Safety Standards. The world nuclear community has made noteworthy progress in strengthening nuclear safety in 2012, as promoted by the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (hereinafter referred to as ''the Action Plan''). For example, an overwhelming majority of Member States with operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) have undertaken and essentially completed comprehensive safety reassessments ('stress tests') with the aim of evaluating the design and safety aspects of plant robustness to protect against extreme events, including: defence in depth, safety margins, cliff edge effects, multiple failures, and the prolonged loss of support systems. As a result, many have introduced additional safety measures including mitigation of station blackout. Moreover, the IAEA's peer review services and safety standards have been reviewed and strengthened where needed. Capacity building programmes have been built or improved, and EPR programmes have also been reviewed and improved. Furthermore, in 2012, the IAEA continued to share lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident with the nuclear community including through three international experts' meetings (IEMs) on reactor and spent fuel safety, communication in the event of a nuclear or radiological emergency, and protection against extreme earthquakes and tsunamis.

  8. Nuclear Safety Review 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-07-01

    The Nuclear Safety Review 2013 focuses on the dominant nuclear safety trends, issues and challenges in 2012. The Executive Overview provides crosscutting and worldwide nuclear safety information along with a summary of the major sections covered in this report. Sections A-E of this report cover improving radiation, transport and waste safety; strengthening safety in nuclear installations; improving regulatory infrastructure and effectiveness; enhancing emergency preparedness and response (EPR); and civil liability for nuclear damage. The Appendix provides details on the activities of the Commission on Safety Standards (CSS), and activities relevant to the IAEA Safety Standards. The world nuclear community has made noteworthy progress in strengthening nuclear safety in 2012, as promoted by the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (hereinafter referred to as ''the Action Plan''). For example, an overwhelming majority of Member States with operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) have undertaken and essentially completed comprehensive safety reassessments ('stress tests') with the aim of evaluating the design and safety aspects of plant robustness to protect against extreme events, including: defence in depth, safety margins, cliff edge effects, multiple failures, and the prolonged loss of support systems. As a result, many have introduced additional safety measures including mitigation of station blackout. Moreover, the IAEA's peer review services and safety standards have been reviewed and strengthened where needed. Capacity building programmes have been built or improved, and EPR programmes have also been reviewed and improved. Furthermore, in 2012, the IAEA continued to share lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident with the nuclear community including through three international experts' meetings (IEMs) on reactor and spent fuel safety, communication in the event of a nuclear or radiological emergency, and protection against extreme earthquakes and tsunamis

  9. Tools and techniques for ageing predictions in nuclear reactors through condition monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, R.M.P.

    1994-01-01

    To operate the nuclear reactors beyond their design predicted life is gaining importance because of huge replacement and decommissioning costs. But experience shows that nuclear plant safety and reliability may decline in the later years of plant life due to ageing degradation. Ageing of nuclear plant components, structures and systems, if unmitigated reduces their safety margins provided in the design and thus increases risks to public health and safety. These safety margins must be monitored throughout plant service life including any extended life. Condition monitoring of nuclear reactor components/equipment and systems can be done to study the effect of ageing, status of safety margins and effect of corrective and mitigating actions taken. The tools and techniques of condition monitoring are also important in failure trending, predictive maintenance, evaluation of scheduled maintenance, in mitigation of ageing, life extension and reliability studies. (author). 1 fig., 1 annexure

  10. Political economy and social psychology of nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choe, Gwang Sik

    2009-03-01

    The contents of this book are consideration on independence of nuclear safety regulations, analysis of trend in internal and external on effectualness of nuclear safety regulations, political psychology of a hard whistle, how to deal with trust and distrust on regulation institute, international trend and domestic trend of nuclear safe culture, policy for building of trust of people on nuclear safety and regulations, measurement and conception of nuclear safety and for who imposes legal controls?

  11. Political economy and social psychology of nuclear safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choe, Gwang Sik

    2009-03-15

    The contents of this book are consideration on independence of nuclear safety regulations, analysis of trend in internal and external on effectualness of nuclear safety regulations, political psychology of a hard whistle, how to deal with trust and distrust on regulation institute, international trend and domestic trend of nuclear safe culture, policy for building of trust of people on nuclear safety and regulations, measurement and conception of nuclear safety and for who imposes legal controls?.

  12. Online Marketing Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Horecká, Ivana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

  13. Operational Safety Performance Indicators and Balanced Scorecard in HANARO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jong-Sup; Jung, Hoan-Sung; Ahn, Guk-Hoon; Lee, Kye-Hong; Lim, In-Cheol; Kim, Hark-Rho

    2007-01-01

    Research reactors need an extensive basis for ensuring their safety. The importance of a safety management in nuclear facilities and activities has been emphasized. The safety activities in HANARO have been continuously conducted to enhance its safe operation. Last year, HANARO prepared two indicator sets to measure and assess the safety status of the reactor's operation and utilization. One is Safety Performance Indicators (SPI) and the other is Balanced Scorecard (BSC). Through reviewing these indicators, we can obtain the following information; - Plant safety status - Safety parameter trends - Safety information, for example, reactor operation status and radiation safety HANARO will continuously pursue the trends of SPI and BSC

  14. Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vestergaard, Anders; Justesen, Birgitte Larsen; Melsen, Charlotte

    Title: Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia. Vestergaard A., Justesen B., Melsen C., Lyhne N., Department of Ophthal......Title: Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia. Vestergaard A., Justesen B., Melsen C., Lyhne N., Department...... predictability, efficacy and safety after femtosecond LASIK (FS-LASIK) with ReLEx. Setting: Department of Ophthalmology, Odense University Hospital, Denmark. Methods: Retrospective study of results after FS-LASIK and ReLEx (including ReLEx flex, ReLEx pseudo-smile, and ReLEx smile). In total, 228 eyes were...... treated with FS-LASIK and 83 eyes with ReLEx, at the Department of Ophthalmology, Odense University Hospital in the period of April to November 2011. Only otherwise healthy myopic eyes with up to 3.00 D of astigmatism and with CDVA ≤ 0.30 (logMAR) before surgery were included in this study. FS-LASIK flaps...

  15. Auto Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Auto Safety KidsHealth / For Parents / Auto Safety What's in this ... by teaching some basic rules. Importance of Child Safety Seats Using a child safety seat (car seat) ...

  16. Does the Spectrum model accurately predict trends in adult mortality? Evaluation of model estimates using empirical data from a rural HIV community cohort study in north-western Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denna Michael

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Spectrum epidemiological models are used by UNAIDS to provide global, regional and national HIV estimates and projections, which are then used for evidence-based health planning for HIV services. However, there are no validations of the Spectrum model against empirical serological and mortality data from populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: Serologic, demographic and verbal autopsy data have been regularly collected among over 30,000 residents in north-western Tanzania since 1994. Five-year age-specific mortality rates (ASMRs per 1,000 person years and the probability of dying between 15 and 60 years of age (45Q15, were calculated and compared with the Spectrum model outputs. Mortality trends by HIV status are shown for periods before the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (1994–1999, 2000–2005 and the first 5 years afterwards (2005–2009. Results: Among 30–34 year olds of both sexes, observed ASMRs per 1,000 person years were 13.33 (95% CI: 10.75–16.52 in the period 1994–1999, 11.03 (95% CI: 8.84–13.77 in 2000–2004, and 6.22 (95% CI; 4.75–8.15 in 2005–2009. Among the same age group, the ASMRs estimated by the Spectrum model were 10.55, 11.13 and 8.15 for the periods 1994–1999, 2000–2004 and 2005–2009, respectively. The cohort data, for both sexes combined, showed that the 45Q15 declined from 39% (95% CI: 27–55% in 1994 to 22% (95% CI: 17–29% in 2009, whereas the Spectrum model predicted a decline from 43% in 1994 to 37% in 2009. Conclusion: From 1994 to 2009, the observed decrease in ASMRs was steeper in younger age groups than that predicted by the Spectrum model, perhaps because the Spectrum model under-estimated the ASMRs in 30–34 year olds in 1994–99. However, the Spectrum model predicted a greater decrease in 45Q15 mortality than observed in the cohort, although the reasons for this over-estimate are unclear.

  17. Trends in family tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heike A. Schänzel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Families represent a large and growing market for the tourism industry. Family tourism is driven by the increasing importance placed on promoting family togetherness, keeping family bonds alive and creating family memories. Predictions for the future of family travel are shaped by changes in demography and social structures. With global mobility families are increasingly geographically dispersed and new family markets are emerging. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the trends that shape the understanding of families and family tourism. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines ten trends that the authors as experts in the field identify of importance and significance for the future of family tourism. Findings – What emerges is that the future of family tourism lies in capturing the increasing heterogeneity, fluidity and mobility of the family market. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the understanding about the changes taking place in family tourism and what it means to the tourism industry in the future.

  18. FASHION TREND FOR A SILHOUETTE: BALENCIAGA CASE

    OpenAIRE

    ERTÜRK, Nilay; özüdoğru, şakir

    2014-01-01

    Fashion, in broad and accepted definition, is any temporary preference or a temporary new thing in any area of human life, which prevails for a certain period of time. The issue of how fashionable products would look like in a particular season is discussed under the concept of fashion trends. The main purpose of this study is to discuss the concept of fashion trends and the studies on predictions in fashion trends, to conduct a sample trend survey for a silhouette and observe whether or not ...

  19. Safety indicators: an efficient tool for a better safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aufort, P.; Lars, R.

    1993-01-01

    Safety indicators based on the examination of the Operating Technical Specifications have been defined with the aim of following the in-operation safety level of French nuclear power plants. These safety indicators are operation feedback tools which permit the a posteriori justification and the adjustment of actual procedures. They would allow detection of an abnormal unavailability occurrence rate or a situation revealing a potential safety problem. So, data acquisition, processing, analysis and display software allowing trend analysis of these indicators has been developed so far as: a reflexion tool for the power plant operators about the safety instructions and the adjustment of preventive maintenance, and a help for decision making at a national level for the examination and the improvement of Operating Technical Specifications. This paper presents the objectives of these safety indicators, the processing tool associated, the preliminary results obtained and more elaborate processing of these indicators. These safety indicators may be very useful in framing probabilistic safety assessments. (author)

  20. Protein-ligand interfaces are polarized: discovery of a strong trend for intermolecular hydrogen bonds to favor donors on the protein side with implications for predicting and designing ligand complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raschka, Sebastian; Wolf, Alex J; Bemister-Buffington, Joseph; Kuhn, Leslie A

    2018-04-01

    Understanding how proteins encode ligand specificity is fascinating and similar in importance to deciphering the genetic code. For protein-ligand recognition, the combination of an almost infinite variety of interfacial shapes and patterns of chemical groups makes the problem especially challenging. Here we analyze data across non-homologous proteins in complex with small biological ligands to address observations made in our inhibitor discovery projects: that proteins favor donating H-bonds to ligands and avoid using groups with both H-bond donor and acceptor capacity. The resulting clear and significant chemical group matching preferences elucidate the code for protein-native ligand binding, similar to the dominant patterns found in nucleic acid base-pairing. On average, 90% of the keto and carboxylate oxygens occurring in the biological ligands formed direct H-bonds to the protein. A two-fold preference was found for protein atoms to act as H-bond donors and ligand atoms to act as acceptors, and 76% of all intermolecular H-bonds involved an amine donor. Together, the tight chemical and geometric constraints associated with satisfying donor groups generate a hydrogen-bonding lock that can be matched only by ligands bearing the right acceptor-rich key. Measuring an index of H-bond preference based on the observed chemical trends proved sufficient to predict other protein-ligand complexes and can be used to guide molecular design. The resulting Hbind and Protein Recognition Index software packages are being made available for rigorously defining intermolecular H-bonds and measuring the extent to which H-bonding patterns in a given complex match the preference key.

  1. Protein-ligand interfaces are polarized: discovery of a strong trend for intermolecular hydrogen bonds to favor donors on the protein side with implications for predicting and designing ligand complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raschka, Sebastian; Wolf, Alex J.; Bemister-Buffington, Joseph; Kuhn, Leslie A.

    2018-02-01

    Understanding how proteins encode ligand specificity is fascinating and similar in importance to deciphering the genetic code. For protein-ligand recognition, the combination of an almost infinite variety of interfacial shapes and patterns of chemical groups makes the problem especially challenging. Here we analyze data across non-homologous proteins in complex with small biological ligands to address observations made in our inhibitor discovery projects: that proteins favor donating H-bonds to ligands and avoid using groups with both H-bond donor and acceptor capacity. The resulting clear and significant chemical group matching preferences elucidate the code for protein-native ligand binding, similar to the dominant patterns found in nucleic acid base-pairing. On average, 90% of the keto and carboxylate oxygens occurring in the biological ligands formed direct H-bonds to the protein. A two-fold preference was found for protein atoms to act as H-bond donors and ligand atoms to act as acceptors, and 76% of all intermolecular H-bonds involved an amine donor. Together, the tight chemical and geometric constraints associated with satisfying donor groups generate a hydrogen-bonding lock that can be matched only by ligands bearing the right acceptor-rich key. Measuring an index of H-bond preference based on the observed chemical trends proved sufficient to predict other protein-ligand complexes and can be used to guide molecular design. The resulting Hbind and Protein Recognition Index software packages are being made available for rigorously defining intermolecular H-bonds and measuring the extent to which H-bonding patterns in a given complex match the preference key.

  2. Quantification of design margins and safety factors based on the prediction uncertainty in tritium production rate from fusion integral experiments of the USDOE/JAERI collaborative program on fusion blanket neutronics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youssef, M.Z.; Konno, C.; Maekawa, F.; Ikeda, Y.; Kosako, K.; Nakagawa, M.; Mori, T.; Maekawa, H.

    1995-01-01

    Several fusion integral experiments were performed within a collaboration between the USA and Japan on fusion breeder neutronics aimed at verifying the prediction accuracy of key neutronics parameters in a fusion reactor blanket based on current neutron transport codes and basic nuclear databases. The focus has been on the tritium production rate (TRP) as an important design parameter to resolve the issue of tritium self-sufficiency in a fusion reactor. In this paper, the calculational and experimental uncertainties (errors) in local TPR in each experiment performed i were interpolated and propagated to estimate the prediction uncertainty u i in the line-integrated TPR and its standard deviation σ i . The measured data are based on Li-glass and NE213 detectors. From the quantities u i and σ i , normalized density functions (NDFs) were constructed, considering all the experiments and their associated analyses performed independently by the UCLA and JAERI. Several statistical parameters were derived, including the mean prediction uncertainties u and the possible spread ±σ u around them. Design margins and safety factors were derived from these NDFs. Distinction was made between the results obtained by UCLA and JAERI and between calculational results based on the discrete ordinates and Monte Carlo methods. The prediction uncertainties, their standard deviations and the design margins and safety factors were derived for the line-integrated TPR from Li-6 T 6 , and Li-7 T 7 . These parameters were used to estimate the corresponding uncertainties and safety factor for the line-integrated TPR from natural lithium T n . (orig.)

  3. Future trends in reprocessing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rouyer, H.

    1994-01-01

    This paper about future trends in reprocessing essentially reflects French experience and points of view as an example of countries which, like England and Japan, consider that reprocessing is the best solution for the back end of the fuel cycle. In order to know what the future will be, it is necessary to look back at the past and try to find what have been the main reasons for evolution in that period. For reprocessing, it appears that these motivations have been 'safety and economics'. They will remain the motivations for the future. In addition, new motivations for development are starting to appear which are still imprecise but can be expressed as follows: 'which guarantees will public opinion require in order to be convinced that solutions for waste management, proposed by specialists shall ensure that a healthy environment is preserved for the use of future generations'. Consequently the paper examines successively the evolution of reprocessing in the recent past, what the immediate future could be and finally what should be necessary in the long term. (Author)

  4. Changing Trends in Modeling Mobility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aarti Munjal

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A phenomenal increase in the number of wireless devices has led to the evolution of several interesting and challenging research problems in opportunistic networks. For example, the random waypoint mobility model, an early, popular effort to model mobility, involves generating random movement patterns. Previous research efforts, however, validate that movement patterns are not random; instead, human mobility is predictable to some extent. Since the performance of a routing protocol in an opportunistic network is greatly improved if the movement patterns of mobile users can be somewhat predicted in advance, several research attempts have been made to understand human mobility. The solutions developed use our understanding of movement patterns to predict the future contact probability for mobile nodes. In this work, we summarize the changing trends in modeling human mobility as random movements to the current research efforts that model human walks in a more predictable manner. Mobility patterns significantly affect the performance of a routing protocol. Thus, the changing trend in modeling mobility has led to several changes in developing routing protocols for opportunistic networks. For example, the simplest opportunistic routing protocol forwards a received packet to a randomly selected neighbor. With predictable mobility, however, routing protocols can use the expected contact information between a pair of mobile nodes in making forwarding decisions. In this work, we also describe the previous and current research efforts in developing routing protocols for opportunistic networks.

  5. Nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-02-01

    This book reviews the accomplishments, operations, and problems faced by the defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board. Specifically, it discusses the recommendations that the Safety Board made to improve safety and health conditions at the Department of Energy's defense nuclear facilities, problems the Safety Board has encountered in hiring technical staff, and management problems that could affect the Safety Board's independence and credibility

  6. Trends in chassis and automobile electronics components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hackenberg, Ulrich [Volkswagen AG, Wolfsburg (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    The rapidly-growing importance of electronics in automobile construction is in part determined by the debate on sustainability and the clear trend towards electric power trains. Another factor, however, is the decisive impact of electronics on the further development of components, e.g. for chassis. Apart from environmental protection, key motivators for component development include comfort, safety, infotainment and driver assistance. (orig.)

  7. Restaurant Cooking Trends and Increased Risk for Campylobacter Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anna K; Rigby, Dan; Burton, Michael; Millman, Caroline; Williams, Nicola J; Jones, Trevor R; Wigley, Paul; O'Brien, Sarah J; Cross, Paul

    2016-07-01

    In the United Kingdom, outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are increasingly attributed to undercooked chicken livers, yet many recipes, including those of top chefs, advocate short cooking times and serving livers pink. During 2015, we studied preferences of chefs and the public in the United Kingdom and investigated the link between liver rareness and survival of Campylobacter. We used photographs to assess chefs' ability to identify chicken livers meeting safe cooking guidelines. To investigate the microbiological safety of livers chefs preferred to serve, we modeled Campylobacter survival in infected chicken livers cooked to various temperatures. Most chefs correctly identified safely cooked livers but overestimated the public's preference for rareness and thus preferred to serve them more rare. We estimated that 19%-52% of livers served commercially in the United Kingdom fail to reach 70°C and that predicted Campylobacter survival rates are 48%-98%. These findings indicate that cooking trends are linked to increasing Campylobacter infections.

  8. Overview of AEOD's program for trending reactor operational events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baranowsky, P.W.; O'Reilly, P.D.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Houghton, J.R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the trending program being performed by AEOD. The major elements of the program include: (1) system and component reliability trending and analysis, (2) special data collection and analysis (e.g., IPE and PRA component failure data, common cause failure event data), (3) risk assessment of safety issues based on actual operating experience, (4) Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program, and (5) trending US industry risk. AEOD plans to maintain up-to-date safety data trends for selected high risk or high regulatory profile components, systems, accident initiators, accident sequences, and regulatory issues. AEOD will also make greater use of PRA insights and perform limited probabilistic safety assessments to evaluate the safety significance of qualitative results. Examples of a system study and an issue evaluation are presented, as well as a summary of the common cause failure event database

  9. Drug Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... over-the-counter drug. The FDA evaluates the safety of a drug by looking at Side effects ... clinical trials The FDA also monitors a drug's safety after approval. For you, drug safety means buying ...

  10. Nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarride, Bruno

    2015-10-01

    The author proposes an overview of methods and concepts used in the nuclear industry, at the design level as well as at the exploitation level, to ensure an acceptable safety level, notably in the case of nuclear reactors. He first addresses the general objectives of nuclear safety and the notion of acceptable risk: definition and organisation of nuclear safety (relationships between safety authorities and operators), notion of acceptable risk, deterministic safety approach and main safety principles (safety functions and confinement barriers, concept of defence in depth). Then, the author addresses the safety approach at the design level: studies of operational situations, studies of internal and external aggressions, safety report, design principles for important-for-safety systems (failure criterion, redundancy, failure prevention, safety classification). The next part addresses safety during exploitation and general exploitation rules: definition of the operation domain and of its limits, periodic controls and tests, management in case of incidents, accidents or aggressions

  11. Marketing Trends to Watch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Circle, Alison

    2009-01-01

    This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

  12. Lung Cancer Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the Biggest Cancer Killer in Both Men and Women” Stay Informed Trends for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal (Colon) Ovarian Prostate Skin Cancer Home Lung Cancer Trends Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend ...

  13. Dose trend analysis of the PWR nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cernilogar Radez, M.; Janzekovic, H.; Krizman, M.

    2002-01-01

    The analyses of occupational dose trends in Krsko NPP in the period from 1995 to 2001 are given in comparison to the worldwide data. The Central Dose Register of Workers in Nuclear Installations at the Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration enables the comprehensive dose trend analysis of the occupational doses in Krsko NPP. The time dose trend of the collective annual effective dose at the Krsko NPP shows somehow different trend than the trends of the ISOE data [1]. The performance indicators describing dose data distributions related to the radiation protection standards [2, 3] are discussed.(author)

  14. Safety culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keen, L.J.

    2003-01-01

    Safety culture has become a topic of increasing interest for industry and regulators as issues are raised on safety problems around the world. The keys to safety culture are organizational effectiveness, effective communications, organizational learning, and a culture that encourages the identification and resolution of safety issues. The necessity of a strong safety culture places an onus on all of us to continually question whether the safety measures already in place are sufficient, and are being applied. (author)

  15. Selection of detailed items for periodic safety review on PWR radwaste management system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sung, K. B.; Ahn, Y. S.; Park, Y. S.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J. T. [Korea Hydric and Nuclear Power Company, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    2003-10-01

    Selection of detailed-items for Periodic Safety Review on PWR radwaste management system, the main component could be faithfully clarified according to the purpose of establishment on each system and basic purpose. It is proper to select detailed-items those of radioactivities in the reactor coolant activity levels and the released volume of liquid and gaseous radioactive material on safety performance. It's also proper to select solid radwaste production quantities as detailed-item that it would be predict the next ten years trends after PSR.

  16. Contractor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanton, M.L.; Montgomery, E.W.

    1991-01-01

    The recent trend in the United States and Shell Oil Company EandP has been to increase use of contractors to do specialized work. Many companies now use contractors almost exclusively for operations such as drilling, well workovers, construction, and many specialty and routine maintenance tasks. Today, approximately 75% of Shell Oil Company's actual operating work force in EandP is contract. Clearly, HSandE considerations must become an increasingly important part of the contractor selection process. This paper reports on the Shell Oil Company's evolution from a bidder selection process to a program of Matching Owner and Contractor. Well has begun to expand efforts to make better assessments of contractor's HSandE capabilities and values in pre-bid considerations. Focus is on pre-bid evaluations to select contractors that have strong HSandE commitments and values. Contractor safety performance in this industry must be brought up to the same standards as operating companies. In Shell Oil EandP is only willing to contractors who can and are willing to do that

  17. Operational safety at the FFTF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baird, Q.L.; Hagan, J.W.; Seeman, S.E.; Baker, S.M.

    1981-02-01

    An extensive operational nuclear safety program has been an integral part of the design, startup, and initial operating phases of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). During the design and construction of the facility, a program of independent safety overviews and analyses assured the provision of responsible safety margins within the plant, protective systems, and engineered safety features for protection of the public, operating staff, and the facility. The program is continuing through surveillance of operations to verify continued adherence to the established operating envelope and for timely identification of any trends potentially adverse to those margins. Experience from operation of FFTF is being utilized in the development of enhanced operational nuclear safety aids for application in follow-on breeder reactor power systems. The commendable plant and personnel safety experiences of FFTF through its startup and ascension to full power demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the FFTF operational nuclear safety program

  18. Nuclear safety. Improvement programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    In this brochure the improvement programme of nuclear safety of the Mochovce NPP is presented in detail. In 1996, a 'Mochovce NPP Nuclear Safety Improvement Programme' was developed in the frame of unit 1 and 2 completion project. The programme has been compiled as a continuous one, with the aim to reach the highest possible safety level at the time of commissioning and to establish good preconditions for permanent safety improvement in future. Such an approach is in compliance with the world's trends of safety improvement, life-time extension, modernisation and nuclear station power increase. The basic document for development of the 'Programme' is the one titled 'Safety Issues and their Ranking for WWER 440/213 NPP' developed by a group of IAEA experts. The following organisations were selected for solution of the safety measures: EUCOM (Consortium of FRAMATOME, France, and SIEMENS, Germany); SKODA Prague, a.s.; ENERGOPROJEKT Prague, a.s. (EGP); Russian organisations associated in ATOMENERGOEXPORT; VUJE Trnava, a.s

  19. EFSA and ECDC (European Food Safety Authority and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), 2015. The European Union Summary Report on Trends and Sources of Zoonoses, Zoonotic Agents and Food-borne Outbreaks in 2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helwigh, Birgitte

    This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of the zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2013 in 32 European countries (28 Member States and four non-Member States). Campylobacter iosis was the most comm...... chain of tuberculosis due to Mycobacterium bovis, Brucella, Trichinella, Echinococcus, Toxoplasma , rabies, Coxiella burnetii (Q fever), West Nile Virus and tularaemia....

  20. Trending analysis of precursor events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio

    1998-01-01

    The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program of United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) identifies and categorizes operational events at nuclear power plants in terms of the potential for core damage. The ASP analysis has been performed on yearly basis and the results have been published in the annual reports. This paper describes the trends in initiating events and dominant sequences for 459 precursors identified in the ASP Program during the 1969-94 period and also discusses a comparison with dominant sequences predicted in the past Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) studies. These trends were examined for three time periods, 1969-81, 1984-87 and 1988-94. Although the different models had been used in the ASP analyses for these three periods, the distribution of precursors by dominant sequences show similar trends to each other. For example, the sequences involving loss of both main and auxiliary feedwater were identified in many PWR events and those involving loss of both high and low coolant injection were found in many BWR events. Also, it was found that these dominant sequences were comparable to those determined to be dominant in the predictions by the past PRAs. As well, a list of the 459 precursors identified are provided in Appendix, indicating initiating event types, unavailable systems, dominant sequences, conditional core damage probabilities, and so on. (author)

  1. Functional Safety Specification of Communication Profile PROFIsafe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Rofar

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Paper maps the trends in area of safety-related communication within PROFIBUS and PROFINET industry networks. There are analyses safety measures and Fail-safe parameters of PROFIsafe profile in version V2 and their localisation in Safety Communication Layer SCL, which guarantees Safety Integrity Level SIL according to standard IEC 61508. The last chapter analyses the reaction in the event of fault during transmission of messages.

  2. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2007-01-01

    based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

  3. Reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butz, H.P.; Heuser, F.W.; May, H.

    1985-01-01

    The paper comprises an introduction into nuclear physics bases, the safety concept generally speaking, safety devices of pwr type reactors, accident analysis, external influences, probabilistic safety assessment and risk studies. It further describes operational experience, licensing procedures under the Atomic Energy Law, research in reactor safety and the nuclear fuel cycle. (DG) [de

  4. Safety assessment, safety performance indicators at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baji, C.; Vamos, G.; Toth, J.

    2001-01-01

    The Paks Nuclear Power Plant has been using different methods of safety assessment (event analysis, self-assessment, probabilistic safety analysis), including performance indicators characterizing both operational and safety performance since the early years of operation of the plant. Regarding the safety performance, the indicators include safety system performance, number of scrams, release of radioactive materials, number of safety significant events, industrial safety indicator, etc. The Paks NPP also reports a set of ten indicators to WANO Performance Indicator Programme which, among others, include safety related indicators as well. However, a more systematic approach to structuring and trending safety indicators is needed so that they can contribute to the enhancement of the operational safety. A more comprehensive set of indicators and a systematic evaluation process was introduced in 1996. The performance indicators framework proposed by the IAEA was adapted to Paks in this year to further improve the process. Safety culture assessment and characterizing safety culture is part of the assessment process. (author)

  5. Polymer adhesion predictions for oral dosage forms to enhance drug administration safety. Part 2: In vitro approach using mechanical force methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drumond, Nélio; Stegemann, Sven

    2018-06-01

    Predicting the potential for unintended adhesion of solid oral dosage forms (SODF) to mucosal tissue is an important aspect that should be considered during drug product development. Previous investigations into low strength mucoadhesion based on particle interactions methods provided evidence that rheological measurements could be used to obtain valid predictions for the development of SODF coatings that can be safely swallowed. The aim of this second work was to estimate the low mucoadhesive strength properties of different polymers using in vitro methods based on mechanical forces and to identify which methods are more precise when measuring reduced mucoadhesion. Another aim was to compare the obtained results to the ones achieved with in vitro particle interaction methods in order to evaluate which methodology can provide stronger predictions. The combined results correlate between particle interaction methods and mechanical force measurements. The polyethylene glycol grades (PEG) and carnauba wax showed the lowest adhesive potential and are predicted to support safe swallowing. Hydroxypropyl methylcellulose (HPMC) along with high molecular grades of polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP) and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) exhibited strong in vitro mucoadhesive strength. The combination of rheological and force tensiometer measurements should be considered when assessing the reduced mucoadhesion of polymer coatings to support safe swallowing of SODF. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Operating experience: safety perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piplani, Vivek; Krishnamurthy, P.R.; Kumar, Neeraj; Upadhyay, Devendra

    2015-01-01

    Operating Experience (OE) provides valuable information for improving NPP safety. This may include events, precursors, deviations, deficiencies, problems, new insights to safety, good practices, lessons and corrective actions. As per INSAG-10, an OE program caters as a fundamental means for enhancing the defence-in-depth at NPPs and hence should be viewed as ‘Continuous Safety Performance Improvement Tool’. The ‘Convention on Nuclear Safety’ also recognizes the OE as a tool of high importance for enhancing the NPP safety and its Article 19 mandates each contracting party to establish an effective OE program at operating NPPs. The lessons drawn from major accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi NPPs had prompted nuclear stalwarts to change their safety perspective towards NPPs and to frame sound policies on issues like safety culture, severe accident prevention and mitigation. An effective OE program, besides correcting current/potential problems, help in proactively improving the NPP design, operating and maintenance procedures, practices, training, etc., and thus plays vital role in ensuring safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Further it enhances knowledge with regard to equipment operating characteristics, system performance trends and provides data for quantitative and qualitative safety analysis. Besides all above, an OE program inculcates a learning culture in the organisation and thus helps in continuously enhancing the expertise, technical competency and knowledge base of its staff. Nuclear and Radiation Facilities in India are regulated by Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB). Operating Plants Safety Division (OPSD) of AERB is involved in managing operating experience activities. This paper provides insights about the operating experience program of OPSD, AERB (including its on-line data base namely OPSD STAR) and its utilisation in improving the regulations and safety at Indian NPPs/projects. (author)

  7. European Food Safety Authority, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; The European Union Summary Report on Trends and Sources of Zoonoses, Zoonotic Agents and Food-borne Outbreaks in 2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Korsgaard, Helle; Borck Høg, Birgitte; Helwigh, Birgitte

    and the statistically significant decreasing trend in the case numbers continued. Eighteen Member States reached the European Union Salmonella reduction target for breeding flocks of fowl, 17 Member States met their reduction target for laying hens and 18 Member States met the reduction target for broilers...... and Yersinia from pigs and pig meat. Brucellosis and tuberculosis decreased in cattle, sheep and goat populations. In humans 1,987 Q fever cases were detected and Q fever was found in domestic ruminants. Trichinellosis and echinococcosis caused 748 and 790 human cases, respectively, and Trichinella...... and Echinococcus were mainly detected in wildlife. There were 1,259 human cases of toxoplasmosis reported and in animals Toxoplasma was most often found in sheep and goats. Rabies was recorded in one person in the European Union and the disease was also found in animals. Most of the 5,550 reported food...

  8. On the Nature of Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

    2010-01-01

    A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

  9. Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

    2012-11-15

    In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

  10. Traffic safety strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Sadauskas

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Fast development of the number of vehicles is closely related not only to large benefit for the public but also to certain undesirable social and economic consequences. Firstly - large numbers of injured and killed people are involved into the accidents. The target to improve traffic safety situation in Lithuania can be reached only after the detailed evaluation of transport system, environment, traffic participants, road and vehicle. Taking into consideration the accident situation in Lithuania and its causes the followings priority trends are suggested: The improvement of the coordination of road traffic safety system, the training and education of road users, the explanation of the importance of traffic safety and its propagation, the improvement of traffic conditions. Recommendations and proposals for differentiated criterion of maximum speed limit selection taking into account different factors are provided in the work.

  11. Computer architecture technology trends

    CERN Document Server

    1991-01-01

    Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

  12. Artemisia umbelliformis Lam. and Génépi Liqueur: Volatile Profile as Diagnostic Marker for Geographic Origin and To Predict Liqueur Safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggia, Lorenzo; Pignata, Giuseppe; Sgorbini, Barbara; Colombo, Maria Laura; Marengo, Arianna; Casale, Manuela; Nicola, Silvana; Bicchi, Carlo; Rubiolo, Patrizia

    2017-04-05

    Artemisia umbelliformis, commonly known as "white génépi", is characterized by a volatile fraction rich in α- and β-thujones, two monoterpenoids; under European Union (EU) regulations these are limited to 35 mg/L in Artemisia-based beverages because of their recognized activity on the human central nervous system. This study reports the results of an investigation to define the geographical origin and thujone content of individual plants of A. umbelliformis from different geographical sites, cultivated experimentally at a single site, and to predict the thujone content in the resulting liqueurs through their volatile fraction. Headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) combined with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and non-separative HS-SPME-MS were used as analytical platforms to create a database suitable for chemometric description and prediction through linear discriminant analysis (LDA). HS-SPME-MS was applied to shorten analysis time. With both approaches, a diagnostic prediction of (i) plant geographical origin and (ii) thujone content of plant-related liqueurs could be made.

  13. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, JianYing; Zhang, Tong; Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin; Niu, Bing

    2018-01-01

    Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

  14. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

    2018-01-01

    Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

  15. Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JianYing Wang

    Full Text Available Vesicular stomatitis (VS is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends.American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression.For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity, SP (specificity and ACC (prediction accuracy values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively.This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

  16. Nuclear Safety Review for 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-06-01

    The Nuclear Safety Review 2015 focuses on the dominant nuclear safety trends, issues and challenges in 2014. The Executive Overview provides general nuclear safety information along with a summary of the major issues covered in this report: improving radiation, transport and waste safety; strengthening safety in nuclear installations; enhancing emergency preparedness and response (EPR); and strengthening civil liability for nuclear damage. The Appendix provides details on the activities of the Commission on Safety Standards (CSS), and activities relevant to the Agency’s safety standards. The global nuclear community continued to make steady progress in improving nuclear safety throughout the world in 2014; and, the Agency and its Member States continued to implement the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (hereinafter referred to as “the Action Plan”), which was endorsed by the General Conference in 2011 after the Fukushima Daiichi accident in March 2011. • Significant progress has been made in reviewing and revising various Agency’s safety standards in areas such as management of radioactive waste, design basis hazard levels, protection of nuclear power plants (NPPs) against severe accidents, design margins to avoid cliff edge effects, multiple facilities at one site, and strengthening the prevention of unacceptable radiological consequences to the public and the environment, communications and EPR. In addition, the Guidelines for Drafting IAEA Safety Standards and Nuclear Security Series Publications was issued in July 2014.• The Agency continued to analyse the relevant technical aspects of the Fukushima Daiichi accident and to share and disseminate lessons learned to the wider nuclear community. In 2014, the Agency organized two international experts’ meetings (IEMs), one on radiation protection and one on severe accident management. Reports from previous IEMs were also published in 2014: IAEA Report on Human and Organizational Factors in Nuclear

  17. Vaccine Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... During Pregnancy Frequently Asked Questions about Vaccine Recalls Historical Vaccine Safety Concerns FAQs about GBS and Menactra ... CISA Resources for Healthcare Professionals Evaluation Current Studies Historical Background 2001-12 Publications Technical Reports Vaccine Safety ...

  18. SAFETY FIRST

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    Ensuring safety while peacefully utilizing nuclear energy is a top priority for China A fter a recent earthquake in Japan caused radioactive leaks at a nuclear power plant in Tokyo, the safety of nuclear energy has again aroused public attention.

  19. ITER safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raeder, J.; Piet, S.; Buende, R.

    1991-01-01

    As part of the series of publications by the IAEA that summarize the results of the Conceptual Design Activities for the ITER project, this document describes the ITER safety analyses. It contains an assessment of normal operation effluents, accident scenarios, plasma chamber safety, tritium system safety, magnet system safety, external loss of coolant and coolant flow problems, and a waste management assessment, while it describes the implementation of the safety approach for ITER. The document ends with a list of major conclusions, a set of topical remarks on technical safety issues, and recommendations for the Engineering Design Activities, safety considerations for siting ITER, and recommendations with regard to the safety issues for the R and D for ITER. Refs, figs and tabs

  20. Water Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Water Safety KidsHealth / For Parents / Water Safety What's in ... remains your best measure of protection. Making Kids Water Wise It's important to teach your kids proper ...

  1. Safety performance indicators used by the Russian Safety Regulatory Authority in its practical activities on nuclear power plant safety regulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khazanov, A.L.

    2005-01-01

    The Sixth Department of the Nuclear, Industrial and Environmental Regulatory Authority of Russia, Scientific and Engineering Centre for Nuclear and Radiation Safety process, analyse and use the information on nuclear power plants (NPPs) operational experience or NPPs safety improvement. Safety performance indicators (SPIs), derived from processing of information on operational violations and analysis of annual NPP Safety Reports, are used as tools to determination of trends towards changing of characteristics of operational safety, to assess the effectiveness of corrective measures, to monitor and evaluate the current operational safety level of NPPs, to regulate NPP safety. This report includes a list of the basic SPIs, those used by the Russian safety regulatory authority in regulatory activity. Some of them are absent in list of IAEA-TECDOC-1141 ('Operational safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants'). (author)

  2. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-11

    including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

  3. Food safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... safety URL of this page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/002434.htm Food safety To use the sharing features on this page, please enable JavaScript. Food safety refers to the conditions and practices that preserve the quality of food. These practices prevent contamination and foodborne ...

  4. World trends from 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

  5. Statistical analysis in the design of nuclear fuel cells and training of a neural network to predict safety parameters for reactors BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jauregui Ch, V.

    2013-01-01

    In this work the obtained results for a statistical analysis are shown, with the purpose of studying the performance of the fuel lattice, taking into account the frequency of the pins that were used. For this objective, different statistical distributions were used; one approximately to normal, another type X 2 but in an inverse form and a random distribution. Also, the prediction of some parameters of the nuclear reactor in a fuel reload was made through a neuronal network, which was trained. The statistical analysis was made using the parameters of the fuel lattice, which was generated through three heuristic techniques: Ant Colony Optimization System, Neuronal Networks and a hybrid among Scatter Search and Path Re linking. The behavior of the local power peak factor was revised in the fuel lattice with the use of different frequencies of enrichment uranium pines, using the three techniques mentioned before, in the same way the infinite multiplication factor of neutrons was analyzed (k..), to determine within what range this factor in the reactor is. Taking into account all the information, which was obtained through the statistical analysis, a neuronal network was trained; that will help to predict the behavior of some parameters of the nuclear reactor, considering a fixed fuel reload with their respective control rods pattern. In the same way, the quality of the training was evaluated using different fuel lattices. The neuronal network learned to predict the next parameters: Shutdown Margin (SDM), the pin burn peaks for two different fuel batches, Thermal Limits and the Effective Neutron Multiplication Factor (k eff ). The results show that the fuel lattices in which the frequency, which the inverted form of the X 2 distribution, was used revealed the best values of local power peak factor. Additionally it is shown that the performance of a fuel lattice could be enhanced controlling the frequency of the uranium enrichment rods and the variety of the gadolinium

  6. Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abul-basher, M M

    1985-01-01

    Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

  7. Std trends in chengalpattu hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishnamurthy V

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6% were males and 928 (20.4% were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4% in men and Syphillis (29% in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4% ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

  8. International guidance, evolution and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz Lopez, C.

    2010-01-01

    safety objective, the protection of future generations and the consideration of 'undue burden to future generations'. The 2006 document applies to all phases of nuclear activities and facilities and the argumentation of the fundamental safety objective on protection of future generations is more general and less restrictive than in the 1995 document. The requirement of avoiding burden to future generations is now interpreted in the sense of seeking safe and environmentally acceptable solutions while not impeding moving the national programme forward. Finally, C Ruiz gave an overview of the IAEA's WS-R-4 requirements document focussing on the capability and features of the disposal system to comply with the safety functions for the containment and isolation of the waste as well as on the requirements for confidence in safety. A trend is shown towards the development and use of safety-oriented criteria, and not just radiological-compliance standards

  9. Safety Picks up "STEAM"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Ken

    2016-01-01

    This column shares safety information for the classroom. STEAM subjects--science, technology, engineering, art, and mathematics--are essential for fostering students' 21st-century skills. STEAM promotes critical-thinking skills, including analysis, assessment, categorization, classification, interpretation, justification, and prediction, and are…

  10. Safety handbook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organization's Safety Handbook is to outline simply the fundamental procedures and safety precautions which provide an appropriate framework for safe working with any potential hazards, such as fire and explosion, welding, cutting, brazing and soldering, compressed gases, cryogenic liquids, chemicals, ionizing radiations, non-ionising radiations, sound and vibration, as well as safety in the office. It also specifies the organisation for safety at the Lucas Heights Research Laboratories and the responsibilities of individuals and committees. It also defines the procedures for the scrutiny and review of all operations and the resultant setting of safety rules for them. ills

  11. INTEGRATED HSEQ MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS: DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS

    OpenAIRE

    Osmo Kauppila; Janne Härkönen; Seppo Väyrynen

    2015-01-01

    The integration of health and safety, environmental and quality (HSEQ) management systems has become a current topic in the 21st century, as the need for systems thinking has grown along with the number of management system standards. This study aims to map current developments and trends in integrated HSEQ management. Three viewpoints are taken: the current state of the main HSEQ management standards, research literature on integrated management systems (IMS), and a case study of an industry...

  12. Compliance of Bombardier's Challenger 604 and CRJ200 to FAR25.856(a) : flame propagation of thermal/acoustic insulation materials and future trends in aircraft materials fire safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lewis, W.R. [Bombardier, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Schofield, C.M.A. [Transport Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2007-07-01

    This paper provided details of a testing program designed to ensure the compliance of Bombardier's Challenger 604 to new rules established to improve flammability standards for thermal and acoustic insulation materials. The rule applied to both pressurized and unpressurized sections of the fuselage, as well as to ducting, sound damping foams, and insulation bags. Test samples of all non-metallic insulation components were collected. Testing of the samples was conducted in a chamber with an ignition source as well as a controlled heat flux provided by a radiant panel. The new rules were discussed as well as challenges faced by industry which will have to show compliance for flame propagation requirements. Issues related to the in-service replacement of thermal and acoustic insulation materials were reviewed along with potential changes to flammability regulations. Materials used by Bombardier for compliant constructions were also listed. It was concluded that the safety of airplane occupants will be improved through compliance to new testing methods under harsher fire threat conditions, with more stringent pass and fail criteria. 15 refs., 5 figs.

  13. Safety design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunitomi, Kazuhiko; Shiozawa, Shusaku

    2004-01-01

    JAERI established the safety design philosophy of the HTTR based on that of current reactors such as LWR in Japan, considering inherent safety features of the HTTR. The strategy of defense in depth was implemented so that the safety engineering functions such as control of reactivity, removal of residual heat and confinement of fission products shall be well performed to ensure safety. However, unlike the LWR, the inherent design features of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) enables the HTTR meet stringent regulatory criteria without much dependence on active safety systems. On the other hand, the safety in an accident typical to the HTGR such as the depressurization accident initiated by a primary pipe rupture shall be ensured. The safety design philosophy of the HTTR considers these unique features appropriately and is expected to be the basis for future Japanese HTGRs. This paper describes the safety design philosophy and safety evaluation procedure of the HTTR especially focusing on unique considerations to the HTTR. Also, experiences obtained from an HTTR safety review and R and D needs for establishing the safety philosophy for the future HTGRs are reported

  14. Nuclear Safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-09-01

    In this short paper it has only been possible to deal in a rather general way with the standards of safety used in the UK nuclear industry. The record of the industry extending over at least twenty years is impressive and, indeed, unique. No other industry has been so painstaking in protection of its workers and in its avoidance of damage to the environment. Headings are: introduction; how a nuclear power station works; radiation and its effects (including reference to ICRP, the UK National Radiological Protection Board, and safety standards); typical radiation doses (natural radiation, therapy, nuclear power programme and other sources); safety of nuclear reactors - design; key questions (matters of concern which arise in the public mind); safety of operators; safety of people in the vicinity of a nuclear power station; safety of the general public; safety bodies. (U.K.)

  15. Occupational dose trends in Tanzania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muhogora, W.E.; Nyanda, A.M.; Ngaile, J.E.; Lema, U.S.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes the present status of occupational radiation exposure of monitored workers in Tanzania from 1986 to 1997. The analysis of dose records observes over this period, a fluctuating trend both in the individual and collective doses. The trend is more related to the fluctuations of the number of radiation workers than to the possible radiation safety changes of the working conditions. It has been found that, the maximum annual dose for the worker in all work categories was about 18 mSv y -1 . This suggests that the occupational radiation exposure in all practices satisfies the current dose limitation system. The national exposure summary shows that, the highest collective dose of 12.8 man-Sv which is 90% of the total collective dose, was due to medical applications. The applications in industry and research had a contribution of nearly 0.8 and 0.7 man-Sv respectively. From the professional point of view, the medical diagnostic radiographers received the highest collective dose of 11.2 man-Sv. Although the medical physicists recorded the minimum collective dose of nearly 0.07 man-Sv, the data shows that this profession received the highest mean dose of about 33 mSv in 12 years. Some achievements of the personnel monitoring services and suggestions for future improvement are pointed out. (author)

  16. Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to

  17. Predictive microbiology: Quantitative science delivering quantifiable benefits to the meat industry and other food industries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMeekin, T A

    2007-09-01

    Predictive microbiology is considered in the context of the conference theme "chance, innovation and challenge", together with the impact of quantitative approaches on food microbiology, generally. The contents of four prominent texts on predictive microbiology are analysed and the major contributions of two meat microbiologists, Drs. T.A. Roberts and C.O. Gill, to the early development of predictive microbiology are highlighted. These provide a segue into R&D trends in predictive microbiology, including the Refrigeration Index, an example of science-based, outcome-focussed food safety regulation. Rapid advances in technologies and systems for application of predictive models are indicated and measures to judge the impact of predictive microbiology are suggested in terms of research outputs and outcomes. The penultimate section considers the future of predictive microbiology and advances that will become possible when data on population responses are combined with data derived from physiological and molecular studies in a systems biology approach. Whilst the emphasis is on science and technology for food safety management, it is suggested that decreases in foodborne illness will also arise from minimising human error by changing the food safety culture.

  18. Healthy food trends -- flaxseeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... seeds; Healthy food trends - linseeds; Healthy snacks - flaxseeds; Healthy diet - flaxseeds; Wellness - flaxseeds ... of nutrition and dietetics: dietary fatty acids for healthy adults. J Acad Nutr Diet . 2014;114(1):136-153. PMID: 24342605 www. ...

  19. Health Plans - Trend Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This page contains several useful trend and competition indicators. Certain files will be updated monthly while others will be updated quarterly. The files are the...

  20. Healthy food trends - kale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healthy food trends - borecole; Healthy snacks - kale; Weight loss - kale; Healthy diet - kale; Wellness - kale ... Kale is full of vitamins and minerals, including: Vitamin A Vitamin C Vitamin K If you take ...

  1. Dismantling technologies trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devaux, P.

    2009-01-01

    In this work dismantling technologies trends realized by the CEA are reviewed. There following technologies are presented: Data acquisition from facilities; Scenario studies; Remote handling and carriers; Dismantling techniques; Decontamination.

  2. Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauritzen, B.; Oelgaard, P.L.; Kampmann, D.; Nystrup, P.E.; Thorlaksen, B.

    2010-05-01

    The report is the seventh report in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is written in collaboration between Risoe DTU and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2009 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development, safety related events, international relations, conflicts and the European safety directive. (LN)

  3. World trends from 2017

    OpenAIRE

    Janković Slobodan

    2016-01-01

    Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

  4. Trends in communications satellites

    CERN Document Server

    Curtin, Denis J

    1979-01-01

    Trends in Communications Satellites offers a comprehensive look at trends and advances in satellite communications, including experimental ones such as NASA satellites and those jointly developed by France and Germany. The economic aspects of communications satellites are also examined. This book consists of 16 chapters and begins with a discussion on the fundamentals of electrical communications and their application to space communications, including spacecraft, earth stations, and orbit and wavelength utilization. The next section demonstrates how successful commercial satellite communicati

  5. Trends in Business Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Lydon, Reamonn; Scally, John

    2014-01-01

    This article examines trends in business investment in Ireland. Consistent with the international evidence on investment cycles, we show that business investment in Ireland exhibits large cyclical movements around a long-run trend relative to GDP. Changes in business investment broadly coincide with the overall business cycle, although swings in investment tend to be far greater, with extended periods of both over- and under-investment relative to GDP. The sharp fall in business investment si...

  6. Trends in picture communication

    OpenAIRE

    Speidel, Joachim

    1993-01-01

    In the past years significant progress was made with digital transmission of audiovisual services and most interesting trends are visible for the future. Such applications encompass interactive services, like videoconferencing, ISDN-videophone, storage of moving video and audio in computers or on CD, e.g. for multimedia applications. For distribution services, there is an unbroken trend from TV to HDTV. Strong emphasis is on compressed digital video even for transmission to the home.

  7. Probabilistic safety criteria at the safety function/system level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-09-01

    A Technical Committee Meeting was held in Vienna, Austria, from 26-30 January 1987. The objectives of the meeting were: to review the national developments of PSC at the level of safety functions/systems including future trends; to analyse basic principles, assumptions, and objectives; to compare numerical values and the rationale for choosing them; to compile the experience with use of such PSC; to analyse the role of uncertainties in particular regarding procedures for showing compliance. The general objective of establishing PSC at the level of safety functions/systems is to provide a pragmatic tool to evaluate plant safety which is placing emphasis on the prevention principle. Such criteria could thus lead to a better understanding of the importance to safety of the various functions which have to be performed to ensure the safety of the plant, and the engineering means of performing these functions. They would reflect the state-of-the-art in modern PSAs and could contribute to a balance in system design. This report, prepared by the participants of the meeting, reviews the current status and future trends in the field and should assist Member States in developing their national approaches. The draft of this document was also submitted to INSAG to be considered in its work to prepare a document on safety principles for nuclear power plants. Five papers presented at the meeting are also included in this publication. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs and tabs

  8. Safety culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The response to a previous publication by the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group (INSAG), indicated a broad international interest in expansion of the concept of Safety Culture, in such a way that its effectiveness in particular cases may be judged. This report responds to that need. In its manifestation, Safety Culture has two major components: the framework determined by organizational policy and by managerial action, and the response of individuals in working within and benefiting by the framework. 1 fig

  9. Safety; Avertissement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-07-01

    This annual report of the Senior Inspector for the Nuclear Safety, analyses the nuclear safety at EDF for the year 1999 and proposes twelve subjects of consideration to progress. Five technical documents are also provided and discussed concerning the nuclear power plants maintenance and safety (thermal fatigue, vibration fatigue, assisted control and instrumentation of the N4 bearing, 1300 MW reactors containment and time of life of power plants). (A.L.B.)

  10. Visit safety

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    Experiment areas, offices, workshops: it is possible to have co-workers or friends visit these places.     You already know about the official visits service, the VIP office, and professional visits. But do you know about the safety instruction GSI-OHS1, “Visits on the CERN site”? This is a mandatory General Safety Instruction that was created to assist you in ensuring safety for all your visits, whatever their nature—especially those that are non-official. Questions? The HSE Unit will be happy to answer them. Write to safety-general@cern.ch.   The HSE Unit

  11. Safety, efficacy, and predictability of laser in situ keratomileusis to correct myopia or myopic astigmatism with a 750 Hz scanning-spot laser system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, Minoru; Watabe, Miyuki; Yukawa, Satoshi; Nakamura, Nobuo; Nakamura, Tadayuki; Magnago, Thomas

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the clinical outcomes of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) to correct myopia or myopic astigmatism using the Amaris 750S 750 Hz excimer laser. Private LASIK center, Tokyo, Japan. Case series. Patients with myopia or myopic astigmatism (spherical equivalent -0.50 to -11.63 diopters [D]), a corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA) of 20/20 or better, and an estimated residual bed thickness of 300 μm or more had LASIK using the aspheric aberration-free ablation profile of the 750 Hz scanning-spot laser and the Femto LDV Crystal Line femtosecond laser for flap creation. Study parameters included uncorrected distance visual acuity (UDVA), CDVA, manifest refraction, astigmatism, and higher-order aberrations (HOAs). The study included 1280 eyes (685 patients). At 3 months, 96.6% of eyes had a UDVA of 20/20 or better and 99.1% had 20/32 or better; 94.1% of eyes were within ± 0.50 D of the intended correction and 98.9% were within ± 1.00 D; 89.7% of eyes had no residual cylinder and 96.0% had a postoperative astigmatism of less than 0.50 D. All eyes had a postoperative CDVA of 20/20 or better. The HOAs increased postoperatively (PLaser in situ keratomileusis with the 750 Hz scanning-spot laser was safe, effective, and predictable. No specific clinical side effects that might be associated with a high repetition rate occurred. Mr. Magnago is an employee of Schwind eye-tech-solutions GmbH. No other author has a financial or proprietary interest in any material or method mentioned. Copyright © 2013 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Provocative diskography: safety and predictive value in the outcome of spinal fusion or pain intervention for chronic low-back pain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willems PC

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Paul C Willems Department of Orthopedic Surgery, CAPHRI Research School, Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, the Netherlands Abstract: There is still no clear definition of diskogenic low-back pain and no consensus on a generally agreed test, such as provocative diskography (PD, to diagnose painful disk degeneration, and probably more importantly, to predict the outcome of therapy intended to reduce pain that is presumed to be diskogenic in nature. Nevertheless, PD is the most specific procedure to diagnose diskogenic low-back pain. Its accuracy, however, is rather low or at best unknown. Although rare, the most prevalent complication, postdiskography diskitis, can be devastating for the individual patient, so all measures, like strict sterile conditions and antibiotic prophylaxis, should be taken to avoid this complication. It is advised to perform the procedure in a pressure-controlled way with a constant low flow, and optionally computed tomography imaging. PD should not be performed in morphologically normal disks. A standardized execution of the test should be established in order to perform high-quality studies to determine its accuracy to lead to meaningful interventions, and find best practices for diagnosis and treatment of diskogenic back pain. Possibly, PD may have detrimental effects on the disk, causing early degeneration, although it is unknown whether this will be related to clinical symptoms. Especially with these possible adverse side effects in mind, the risk–benefit ratio with the lack of clear benefits from treatments provided, and possible complications of disk puncture, the rationale for PD is questionable, which should be stressed to patients in the process of shared decision making. Diskography as a stand-alone test is not recommended in clinical decision making for patients with chronic low-back pain. Keywords: provocative diskography, chronic low-back pain, prognostic accuracy, spinal fusion, pain

  13. The mathematics of cost trend forecasting; Der Lernkurve folgen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haslinger, Rupert

    2010-05-07

    The relation of the number of products produced to the production cost can be described by mathematical models. Learning curves enable forecasting of cost trends. But is this just theory, or do these forecasts really predict cost trends of photovoltaic systems in Germany. (orig.)

  14. Modelled long term trends of surface ozone over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, M

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available timescale seeks to provide a spatially comprehensive view of trends while also creating a baseline for comparisons with future projections of air quality through the forcing of air quality models with modelled predicted long term meteorology. Previous...

  15. Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Brian E.

    2013-01-01

    both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

  16. Safety pharmacology — Current and emerging concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamdam, Junnat; Sethu, Swaminathan; Smith, Trevor; Alfirevic, Ana; Alhaidari, Mohammad; Atkinson, Jeffrey; Ayala, Mimieveshiofuo; Box, Helen; Cross, Michael; Delaunois, Annie; Dermody, Ailsa; Govindappa, Karthik; Guillon, Jean-Michel; Jenkins, Rosalind; Kenna, Gerry; Lemmer, Björn; Meecham, Ken; Olayanju, Adedamola; Pestel, Sabine; Rothfuss, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    Safety pharmacology (SP) is an essential part of the drug development process that aims to identify and predict adverse effects prior to clinical trials. SP studies are described in the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) S7A and S7B guidelines. The core battery and supplemental SP studies evaluate effects of a new chemical entity (NCE) at both anticipated therapeutic and supra-therapeutic exposures on major organ systems, including cardiovascular, central nervous, respiratory, renal and gastrointestinal. This review outlines the current practices and emerging concepts in SP studies including frontloading, parallel assessment of core battery studies, use of non-standard species, biomarkers, and combining toxicology and SP assessments. Integration of the newer approaches to routine SP studies may significantly enhance the scope of SP by refining and providing mechanistic insight to potential adverse effects associated with test compounds. - Highlights: • SP — mandatory non-clinical risk assessments performed during drug development. • SP organ system studies ensure the safety of clinical participants in FiH trials. • Frontloading in SP facilitates lead candidate drug selection. • Emerging trends: integrating SP-Toxicological endpoints; combined core battery tests

  17. Safety pharmacology — Current and emerging concepts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamdam, Junnat; Sethu, Swaminathan; Smith, Trevor; Alfirevic, Ana; Alhaidari, Mohammad [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Atkinson, Jeffrey [Lorraine University Pharmacolor Consultants Nancy PCN (France); Ayala, Mimieveshiofuo; Box, Helen; Cross, Michael [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Delaunois, Annie [UCB Pharma (Belgium); Dermody, Ailsa; Govindappa, Karthik [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Guillon, Jean-Michel [Sanofi-aventis (France); Jenkins, Rosalind [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Kenna, Gerry [Astra-Zeneca (United Kingdom); Lemmer, Björn [Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg (Germany); Meecham, Ken [Huntingdon Life Sciences (United Kingdom); Olayanju, Adedamola [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Pestel, Sabine [Boehringer-Ingelheim (Germany); Rothfuss, Andreas [Roche (Switzerland); and others

    2013-12-01

    Safety pharmacology (SP) is an essential part of the drug development process that aims to identify and predict adverse effects prior to clinical trials. SP studies are described in the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) S7A and S7B guidelines. The core battery and supplemental SP studies evaluate effects of a new chemical entity (NCE) at both anticipated therapeutic and supra-therapeutic exposures on major organ systems, including cardiovascular, central nervous, respiratory, renal and gastrointestinal. This review outlines the current practices and emerging concepts in SP studies including frontloading, parallel assessment of core battery studies, use of non-standard species, biomarkers, and combining toxicology and SP assessments. Integration of the newer approaches to routine SP studies may significantly enhance the scope of SP by refining and providing mechanistic insight to potential adverse effects associated with test compounds. - Highlights: • SP — mandatory non-clinical risk assessments performed during drug development. • SP organ system studies ensure the safety of clinical participants in FiH trials. • Frontloading in SP facilitates lead candidate drug selection. • Emerging trends: integrating SP-Toxicological endpoints; combined core battery tests.

  18. Development of pipe wall thinning prediction software 'FALSET'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoneda, Kimitoshi; Morita, Ryo; Inada, Fumio; Fujiwara, Kazutoshi

    2012-01-01

    Pipe wall thinning in power plants has been managed for maintaining plant integrity and safety with great importance. The target thinning phenomena are Flow Accelerated Corrosion (FAC) and Liquid Droplet Impingement Erosion (LDI). At present, the management is based on thinning rate and residual lifetime evaluation using pipe wall thickness measurement results. For the future, more safety and improvement in the management is required, and in this sense, prediction method of wall thinning is willing to be introduced. Therefore, prediction model of FAC and LDI have been constructed in CRIEPI, and to utilize these models to actual plant piping management easily, prediction software 'FALSET' is developed. FALSET has equipped with essential function for pipe wall thinning management in power plants, as follows; (1) Information and condition input of plant piping system and its component, (2) Wall thinning rate evaluation with CRIEPI's FAC/LDI prediction model, (3) Loading of wall thickness measurement data files and graphics of data trend, (4) Residual lifetime evaluation considering both measured and predicted thinning rate, (5) Statistical process and graphics of thinning rate and residual lifetime for multi-piping systems. With further verification and improvement of each function, there will be a perspective for this FALSET to be utilized as a management tool in power plants. (author)

  19. Safety analysis procedures for PHWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Min, Byung Joo; Kim, Hyoung Tae; Yoo, Kun Joong

    2004-03-01

    The methodology of safety analyses for CANDU reactors in Canada, a vendor country, uses a combination of best-estimate physical models and conservative input parameters so as to minimize the uncertainty of the plant behavior predictions. As using the conservative input parameters, the results of the safety analyses are assured the regulatory requirements such as the public dose, the integrity of fuel and fuel channel, the integrity of containment and reactor structures, etc. However, there is not the comprehensive and systematic procedures for safety analyses for CANDU reactors in Korea. In this regard, the development of the safety analyses procedures for CANDU reactors is being conducted not only to establish the safety analyses system, but also to enhance the quality assurance of the safety assessment. In the first phase of this study, the general procedures of the deterministic safety analyses are developed. The general safety procedures are covered the specification of the initial event, selection of the methodology and accident sequences, computer codes, safety analysis procedures, verification of errors and uncertainties, etc. Finally, These general procedures of the safety analyses are applied to the Large Break Loss Of Coolant Accident (LBLOCA) in Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) for Wolsong units 2, 3, 4

  20. Perceived organizational support for safety and employee safety voice: the mediating role of coworker support for safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Sean; Chmiel, Nik; Turner, Nick; Hershcovis, M Sandy; Stride, Chris B

    2008-10-01

    In the present study, we modeled 2 sources of safety support (perceived organizational support for safety and perceived coworker support for safety) as predictors of employee safety voice, that is, speaking out in an attempt to change unsafe working conditions. Drawing on social exchange and social impact theories, we hypothesized and tested a mediated model predicting employee safety voice using a cross-sectional survey of urban bus drivers (n = 213) in the United Kingdom. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that perceived coworker support for safety fully mediated the relationship between perceived organizational support for safety and employee safety voice. This study adds to the employee voice literature by evaluating the important role that coworkers can play in encouraging others to speak out about safety issues. Implications for research and practice related to change-oriented safety communication are discussed.

  1. Trend curve data development and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McElroy, W.N.; Gold, R.; Simons, R.L.; Roberts, J.H.

    1986-08-01

    Existing trend curves do not account for previous and more recently observed test and power reactor flux-level, thermal neutron and gamma-ray field-induced effects. Any agreement between measured data and trend curve predictions that does not adequately represent the important neutron environmental and temperature effects as well as the microstructural damage processes, therefore, could be fortuitous. Two principal questions asked concerning the metallurgical condition of the pressure vessel and its support structures are: What are the controlling variables; and What effects do they have on changing the metallurgical properties of the vessel and its support structures throughout their lifetimes

  2. Safety Principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Grinenko

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The offered material in the article is picked up so that the reader could have a complete representation about concept “safety”, intrinsic characteristics and formalization possibilities. Principles and possible strategy of safety are considered. A material of the article is destined for the experts who are taking up the problems of safety.

  3. Safety Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halligan, Tom

    2009-01-01

    Colleges across the country are rising to the task by implementing safety programs, response strategies, and technologies intended to create a secure environment for teachers and students. Whether it is preparing and responding to a natural disaster, health emergency, or act of violence, more schools are making campus safety a top priority. At…

  4. Safety First

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taft, Darryl

    2011-01-01

    Ned Miller does not take security lightly. As director of campus safety and emergency management at the Des Moines Area Community College (DMACC), any threat requires serious consideration. As community college administrators adopt a more proactive approach to campus safety, many institutions are experimenting with emerging technologies, including…

  5. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  6. NEW TRENDS IN MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micu Alexandra

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Over the last years, management have been facing a series of profound changes in trends coming and going, one being more productive than other or causing more damage when applied improperly. The paper focuses on the last trends in management that have evolved in the last years, trends that have been marked by a Darwinian business environment and made more unforgiving since the financial crisis and the innovations in technology, social media and management philosophy. The paper will present and describe the most important new trends in management that enabled select organisations to remain competitive and overcome the multiple difficulties caused by the ever-changing economy based on a qualitative research. From the “outside innovation” that is considered always to be the key in overcoming the obstacles facing an organization, to the new buzzword “design”, that is said to ensure the organization long-term competitive advantage, the paper will analyse new trends and also will be describing the impact they have on the welfare of the organization. The research has also shown that managers tend to put a greater accent on searching for innovation rather than efficiency in order to ensure a continuous progress in the organization and to maintain business sustainability. The paper will not be comparing the efficiency of these different philosophies, or the results they generated, as time will still be the ultimate judge.

  7. Regulatory Framework of Safety for HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huh, Chang Wook; Suh, Nam Duk

    2011-01-01

    Recent accident in Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan makes big impacts on the future of nuclear business. Many countries are changing their nuclear projects and increased safety of nuclear plants is asked for from the public. Without providing safety the society accepts, it might be almost impossible to build new plants further. In this sense high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) which is under development needs to be licensed reflecting this new expectation regarding safety. It means we should have higher level of safety goal and a systematic regulatory framework to assure the safety. In our previous paper, we evaluated the current safety goal and design practice in view of this new safety expectation after Fukushima accident. It was argued that a top-down approach starting from safety goal is necessary to develop safety requirements or to assure safety. Thus we need to propose an ultimate safety goal public accepts and then establish a systematic regulatory framework. In this paper we are going to provide a conceptual regulatory framework to guarantee the safety of HTGR. Section 2 discusses the recent trend of IAEA safety requirements and then summarize the HTGR design approach. Incorporating these discussions, we propose a conceptual framework of regulation for safety of HTGR

  8. Consumer trends and prefences in the demand for food

    OpenAIRE

    Lappo, Alena; Bjørndal, Trond; Fernandez-Polanco, Jose; Lem, Audun

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this report is to analyse the major tastes and preferences of consumers in food consumption, as well as expected changes in these over time. We identify five important consumer trends and purchase drivers: food safety and health benefits; corporate social responsibility; production systems and innovations; sustainability; and food origin. For each of these trends we will consider relevant actions that are being implemented by governments, non-governmental organisations (NGOs)...

  9. Trends in nuclear licensing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalton, N.W.

    1990-01-01

    The development of nuclear safety and licensing is briefly reviewed in four stages namely: The Formative Period (1946-1959), The Expansive Period (1960-1969), The Mature Period (1970-1979) and the Apprehensive Period (1980-1989). Particular safety issues in the respective periods are highlighted to indicate the changing emphasis of nuclear licensing over the past thirty years or so. Against this background, nuclear licensing. (author)

  10. Trends in nuclear licensing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalton, N W [Council for Nuclear Safety, Hennopsmeer, Pretoria (South Africa)

    1990-06-01

    The development of nuclear safety and licensing is briefly reviewed in four stages namely: The Formative Period (1946-1959), The Expansive Period (1960-1969), The Mature Period (1970-1979) and the Apprehensive Period (1980-1989). Particular safety issues in the respective periods are highlighted to indicate the changing emphasis of nuclear licensing over the past thirty years or so. Against this background, nuclear licensing. (author)

  11. Wage Sorting Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

    Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

  12. Temporal trends in sperm count

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson

    2017-01-01

    a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years.......006, respectively). WIDER IMPLICATIONS: This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because......BACKGROUND: Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: To provide a systematic review and meta-regression...

  13. The Nuclear Safety Council in the National System of Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies. Functions, organization and new international trends; El Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear en el Sistema Nacional de Emergencias Nucleares y Radiológicas. Funciones, organización y nuevas tendencias internacionales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mozas García, A.; Martín Calvarro, J.M.; García Cadierno, J.P.; Calvín Cuartero, M.

    2015-07-01

    This article describes the role of the Spanish Nuclear Safety Council (CSN) in the coordination of nuclear and radiológicas emergencies, and how they engage with the National Nuclear and Radiological Emergency System. To accomplish its functions, the CSN, has set up the Emergency Response Organization (ORE), which structure, functions and procedures are also described in this work. Finally, the new international trends that are being developed on emergency preparedness and response as a consequence of the lessons learned from recent disasters are reported. [Spanish] Este artículo revisa las funciones que el Consejo de Seguridad tiene en la coordinación de las emergencias nucleares y radiológicas, y cómo se engranan éstas en el Sistema Nacional de Emergencias. A partir de las funciones que tiene encomendadas se describe la organización del CSN en emergencias y la estructura de los apoyos con los que cuenta para cumplir con aquéllas. Por último, se revisan las tendencias que, a nivel internacional, se están desarrollando para incorporar a la preparación de la respuesta a emergencias las lecciones aprendidas de las últimas catástrofes ocurridas.

  14. Future trends in image coding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habibi, Ali

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this article is to present a discussion on the future of image data compression in the next two decades. It is virtually impossible to predict with any degree of certainty the breakthroughs in theory and developments, the milestones in advancement of technology and the success of the upcoming commercial products in the market place which will be the main factors in establishing the future stage to image coding. What we propose to do, instead, is look back at the progress in image coding during the last two decades and assess the state of the art in image coding today. Then, by observing the trends in developments of theory, software, and hardware coupled with the future needs for use and dissemination of imagery data and the constraints on the bandwidth and capacity of various networks, predict the future state of image coding. What seems to be certain today is the growing need for bandwidth compression. The television is using a technology which is half a century old and is ready to be replaced by high definition television with an extremely high digital bandwidth. Smart telephones coupled with personal computers and TV monitors accommodating both printed and video data will be common in homes and businesses within the next decade. Efficient and compact digital processing modules using developing technologies will make bandwidth compressed imagery the cheap and preferred alternative in satellite and on-board applications. In view of the above needs, we expect increased activities in development of theory, software, special purpose chips and hardware for image bandwidth compression in the next two decades. The following sections summarize the future trends in these areas.

  15. Nuclear power: Siting and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Openshaw, S.

    1986-01-01

    By 2030, half, or even two-thirds, of all electricity may be generated by nuclear power. Major reactor accidents are still expected to be rare occurrences, but nuclear safety is largely a matter of faith. Terrorist attacks, sabotage, and human error could cause a significant accident. Reactor siting can offer an additional, design-independent margin of safety. Remote geographical sites for new plants would minimize health risks, protect the industry from negative changes in public opinion concerning nuclear energy, and improve long-term public acceptance of nuclear power. U.K. siting practices usually do not consider the contribution to safety that could be obtained from remote sites. This book discusses the present trends of siting policies of nuclear power and their design-independent margin of safety

  16. Fundamental safety principles. Safety fundamentals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This publication states the fundamental safety objective and ten associated safety principles, and briefly describes their intent and purpose. The fundamental safety objective - to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation - applies to all circumstances that give rise to radiation risks. The safety principles are applicable, as relevant, throughout the entire lifetime of all facilities and activities - existing and new - utilized for peaceful purposes, and to protective actions to reduce existing radiation risks. They provide the basis for requirements and measures for the protection of people and the environment against radiation risks and for the safety of facilities and activities that give rise to radiation risks, including, in particular, nuclear installations and uses of radiation and radioactive sources, the transport of radioactive material and the management of radioactive waste

  17. Fundamental safety principles. Safety fundamentals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This publication states the fundamental safety objective and ten associated safety principles, and briefly describes their intent and purpose. The fundamental safety objective - to protect people and the environment from harmful effects of ionizing radiation - applies to all circumstances that give rise to radiation risks. The safety principles are applicable, as relevant, throughout the entire lifetime of all facilities and activities - existing and new - utilized for peaceful purposes, and to protective actions to reduce existing radiation risks. They provide the basis for requirements and measures for the protection of people and the environment against radiation risks and for the safety of facilities and activities that give rise to radiation risks, including, in particular, nuclear installations and uses of radiation and radioactive sources, the transport of radioactive material and the management of radioactive waste

  18. Safety strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schultheiss, G.F.

    1980-01-01

    The basis for safety strategy in nuclear industry and especially nuclear power plants is the prevention of radioactivity release inside or outside of the technical installation. Therefore either technical or administrative measures are combined to a general strategy concept. This introduction will explain in more detail the following topics: - basic principles of safety - lines of assurance (LOA) - defense in depth - deterministic and probabilistic methods. This presentation is seen as an introduction to the more detailed discussion following in this course, nevertheless some selected examples will be used to illustrate the aspects of safety strategy development although they might be repeated later on. (orig.)

  19. Safety culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drukraroff, C.

    2010-01-01

    The concept of Safety Culture was defined after Chernobyl's nuclear accident in 1986. It has not been exempt from discussion interpretations, adding riders, etc..., over the last 24 years because it has to do with human behavior and performance in the organizations. Safety Culture is not an easy task to define, assess and monitor. The proof of it is that today we still discussing and writing about it. How has been the evolution of Safety Culture at the Juzbado Factory since 1985 to today?. What is the strategy that we will be following in the future. (Author)

  20. Radiation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-04-01

    Most of the ionizing radiation that people are exposed to in day-to-day activities comes from natural, rather than manmade, sources. The health effects of radiation - both natural and artificial - are relatively well understood and can be effectively minimized through careful safety measures and practices. The IAEA, together with other international and expert organizations, is helping to promote and institute Basic Safety Standards on an international basis to ensure that radiation sources and radioactive materials are managed for both maximum safety and human benefit

  1. Nuclear Safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silver, E G [ed.

    1989-01-01

    This document is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated.

  2. Nuclear safety review for the year 2001

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-07-01

    The Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2001 reports on worldwide efforts to strengthen nuclear and radiation safety, including radioactive waste safety. It is in three parts. Part 1 describes those events in 2001 that have, or may have, significance for nuclear, radiation and waste safety worldwide. It includes developments such as new initiatives in international cooperation, events of safety significance and events that may be indicative of trends in safety. Part 2 describes some of the IAEA's efforts to strengthen international co-operation in nuclear, radiation and waste safety during 2001. It covers legally binding international agreements, non-binding safety standards, and provisions for the application of safety standards. This is done in a very brief manner, because these issues are addressed in more detail in the Agency's Annual Report for 2001. Part 3 presents a brief look ahead to some issues that are likely to be prominent in the coming year(s). The topics covered were selected by the IAEA Secretariat on the basis of trends observed in recent years, account being taken of planned or expected future developments. A draft of the Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2001 was presented to the March 2002 session of IAEA's Board of Governors. This final version has been prepared taking account of the discussion in the Board. In some places, information has been added to describe developments early in 2002 that were considered pertinent to the discussion of events during 2001

  3. Trends in gender differences in accidents mortality: Relationships to changing gender roles and other societal trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inga Earle

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available This study tests five hypotheses concerning trends in gender differences in accidents mortality and accident-related behavior, using data for the US, UK, France, Italy, and Japan, 1950-98. As predicted by the Convergence Hypothesis, gender differences have decreased for amount of driving, motor vehicle accidents mortality, and occupational accidents mortality. However, for many types of accidents mortality, gender differences were stable or increased; these trends often resulted from the differential impact on male and female mortality of general societal trends such as increased illicit drug use or improved health care. Similarly, trends in gender differences in accident-related behavior have shown substantial variation and appear to have been influenced by multiple factors, including gender differences in rates of adoption of different types of innovations.

  4. Trend curve data development and testing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McElroy, W.N.; Gold, R.; Simons, R.L.; Roberts, J.H.

    1986-01-01

    Existing trend curves do not account for previous and more recently observed test and power reactor flux-level, thermal neutron and γ-ray field-induced effects. Any agreement between measured data and trend curve predictions that does not adequately represent the important neutron environmental and temperature effects as well as the microstructural damage processes, therefore, could be fortuitous. Empirically derived end-of-life (EOL) and life-extension-range (LER) trend curves are presented and discussed in this paper for high temperature [∼288 0 C (550 0 F)] irradiation of two weld, two plate, and two forging pressure vessel (PV) steels and low-temperature [∼60 0 C (140 0 F)] irradiation of one support structure-type steel

  5. Safety Culture Monitoring: How to Assess Safety Culture in Real Time?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zronek, B.; Maryska, J.; Treslova, L.

    2016-01-01

    Do you know what is current level of safety culture in your company? Are you able to follow trend changes? Do you know what your recent issues are? Since safety culture is understood as vital part of nuclear industry daily life, it is crucial to know what the current level is. It is common to perform safety culture survey or ad hoc assessment. This contribution shares Temelin NPP, CEZ approach how to assess safety culture level permanently. Using behavioral related outputs of gap solving system, observation program, dedicated surveys, regulatory assessment, etc., allows creating real time safety culture monitoring without the need to perform any other activities. (author)

  6. Travel and tourism trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deborah J. Chavez

    1995-01-01

    Demographic trends which impact leisure time activities are highlighted, with particular emphasis given to the impacts of the growth of minority populations. Data was collected from recreationists to National Forests and from residents of an urban community. The data indicate a shift in outdoor recreation activities.

  7. Trends in ICT 2003

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessel, Paul van; Rust, Christa

    2003-01-01

    The study "Trends in ICT 2003" surveyed Dutch managers about important IT aspects. Results of the study are presented in brief. Topics treated are security, privacy, e-commerce, use of intranet, monitoring of employee WWW use, who makes IT decisions, implementation of contingency plans, the cause of

  8. Evolutionary trends in Heteroptera

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cobben, R.H.

    1968-01-01

    1. This work, the first volume of a series dealing with evolutionary trends in Heteroptera, is concerned with the egg system of about 400 species. The data are presented systematically in chapters 1 and 2 with a critical review of the literature after each family.

    2. Chapter 3 evaluates facts

  9. Trend Analysis Using Microcomputers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, Carl F.

    A trend analysis statistical package and additional programs for the Apple microcomputer are presented. They illustrate strategies of data analysis suitable to the graphics and processing capabilities of the microcomputer. The programs analyze data sets using examples of: (1) analysis of variance with multiple linear regression; (2) exponential…

  10. Summary of Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Summary of Trends. Optical Ethernet: Direct Ethernet connectivity to businesses through optical fiber. Automation of network infrastructure: Cross-connects for interconnections; Intelligence through software for OA&M. New “data-centric” protection mechanisms ...

  11. Trends in corporate greening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning; Ulhøi, John Parm

    , if a general change of attitude has taken place in the business community or if companies just comply with the required minimum standard set by legislation. Based on a series of surveys this paper reports on the trends in implementing corporate environmental management in Danish industry up till the entrance...... of the new millennium in order to indicate how practice has evolved....

  12. [Development trend of nanomedicines].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, Kumiko

    2013-01-01

    Nanotechnology has had a great impact on science, technology, and society since 2000, and its applications in medicine are also progressing in the diagnosis, treatment, and prevention of disease. In this review, international trends in nanomedicine regulation are introduced, including the definition of nanomedicines and the evaluation of liposomes and iron nanoparticles.

  13. Marketing for Camp Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, Alicia

    1998-01-01

    To effectively market a camp, current trends and issues must be considered: specialty programming, the Americans With Disabilities Act, competing recreational programs, changes in the school year, programming for seniors, and accountability. Camps should have a marketing strategy that includes public relations, a marketing plan, a pricing…

  14. Trends in African philosophy

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    JONATHAN

    In the contention of Oladipo (2006), the debate on the idea of. African philosophy which has been divided into trends or schools, dates back to the 1960's and 70's, which constitute the modern epoch of African philosophy, when some African thinkers began to question the perspective that traditional African beliefs and.

  15. Technological trends in automobiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, E J; Compton, W D

    1984-08-10

    Current technological trends in the automotive industry reflect many diverse disciplines. Electronics and microprocessors, new engine transmission concepts, composite and ceramic materials, and computer-aided design and manufacture will combine to make possible the creation of advanced automobiles offering outstanding quality, fuel economy, and performance. A projected "average" vehicle of the 1990's is described to illustrate the application of these new concepts.

  16. Iowa Population Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

    The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

  17. Cotton trends in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Cotton trends in India. A crop of significant economic importance, valued at over Rs. 15000 Crs. Provides income to 60 million people. Crucial raw material for Rs 83000 Crores textile industry out of which Rs 45754 crores is exports. Approx. 20 Million acres of cotton provides ...

  18. Optical Computing - Research Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 8; Issue 7. Optical Computing - Research Trends. Debabrata Goswami. General Article Volume 8 Issue 7 July 2003 pp 8-21. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/008/07/0008-0021. Keywords.

  19. Autonomous system for launch vehicle range safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrell, Bob; Haley, Sam

    2001-02-01

    The Autonomous Flight Safety System (AFSS) is a launch vehicle subsystem whose ultimate goal is an autonomous capability to assure range safety (people and valuable resources), flight personnel safety, flight assets safety (recovery of valuable vehicles and cargo), and global coverage with a dramatic simplification of range infrastructure. The AFSS is capable of determining current vehicle position and predicting the impact point with respect to flight restriction zones. Additionally, it is able to discern whether or not the launch vehicle is an immediate threat to public safety, and initiate the appropriate range safety response. These features provide for a dramatic cost reduction in range operations and improved reliability of mission success. .

  20. Containment safety margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Von Riesemann, W.A.

    1980-01-01

    Objective of the Containment Safety Margins program is the development and verification of methodologies which are capable of reliably predicting the ultimate load-carrying capability of light water reactor containment structures under accident and severe environments. The program was initiated in June 1980 at Sandia and this paper addresses the first phase of the program which is essentially a planning effort. Brief comments are made about the second phase, which will involve testing of containment models

  1. Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Gordon R.

    1998-05-01

    The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

  2. 10CFR50.59 safety evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grime, L.; Page, E.

    1987-01-01

    As a plant changes from the design phase to the operational phase, new regulations and standards apply. One such regulation is 10CFR50.59 on safety evaluations. Once an operating license is issued, it is mandatory to submit all applicable changes, tests, and experiments to the safety evaluation process. As preparation for this transition, Detroit Edison had procedures in place and conducted personnel training. Reviews of the safety engineering were conducted by the on-site review board. The off-site board delegated detailed reviews of most safety evaluations to the independent safety evaluation group (ISEG). The on-site group review included presentation of complete design packages by engineers. The ISEG and off-site review group's activity focused on safety evaluation. This paper addresses industry trends that were studied, Detroit Edison's recent actions, and industry issues related to 10CFR50.59 safety evaluations

  3. Reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meneley, D.A.

    The people of Ontario have begun to receive the benefits of a low cost, assured supply of electrical energy from CANDU nuclear stations. This indigenous energy source also has excellent safety characteristics. Safety has been one of the central themes of the CANDU development program from its very beginning. A great deal of work has been done to establish that public risks are small. However, safety design criteria are now undergoing extensive review, with a real prospect of more stringent requirements being applied in the future. Considering the newness of the technology it is not surprising that a consensus does not yet exist; this makes it imperative to discuss the issues. It is time to examine the policies and practice of reactor safety management in Canada to decide whether or not further restrictions are justified in the light of current knowledge

  4. Safety of nuclear ships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    Interest in the utilization of nuclear steam supply systems for merchant ships and icebreakers has recently increased considerably due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the continuing trend towards larger and faster merchant ships. Canada, for example, is considering construction of an icebreaker in the near future. On the other hand, an accident which could result in serious damage to or the sinking of a nuclear ship is potentially far more dangerous to the general public than a similar accident with a conventional ship. Therefore, it was very important to evaluate in an international forum the safety of nuclear ships in the light of our contemporary safety philosophy, taking into account the results of cumulative operating experience with nuclear ships in operation. The philosophy and safety requirement for land-based nuclear installations were outlined because of many common features for both land-based nuclear installations and nuclear ships. Nevertheless, essential specific safety requirements for nuclear ships must always be considered, and the work on safety problems for nuclear ships sponsored by the NEA was regarded as an important step towards developing an international code of practice by IMCO on the safety of nuclear merchant ships. One session was devoted to the quantitative assessment of nuclear ship safety. The probability technique of an accident risk assessment for nuclear power plants is well known and widely used. Its modification, to make it applicable to nuclear propelled merchant ships, was discussed in some papers. Mathematical models for describing various postulated accidents with nuclear ships were developed and reported by several speakers. Several papers discussed a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) with nuclear steam supply systems of nuclear ships and engineering design features to prevent a radioactive effluence after LOCA. Other types of postulated accidents with reactors and systems in static and dynamic conditions were also

  5. Predicting Pilot Retention

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-15

    forever… Gig ‘Em! Dale W. Stanley III vii Table of Contents Page Acknowledgments...over the last 20 years. Airbus predicted that these trends would continue as emerging economies , especially in Asia, were creating a fast growing...US economy , pay differential and hiring by the major airlines contributed most to the decision to separate from the Air Force (Fullerton, 2003: 354

  6. Disentangling the roles of safety climate and safety culture: Multi-level effects on the relationship between supervisor enforcement and safety compliance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petitta, Laura; Probst, Tahira M; Barbaranelli, Claudio; Ghezzi, Valerio

    2017-02-01

    Despite increasing attention to contextual effects on the relationship between supervisor enforcement and employee safety compliance, no study has yet explored the conjoint influence exerted simultaneously by organizational safety climate and safety culture. The present study seeks to address this literature shortcoming. We first begin by briefly discussing the theoretical distinctions between safety climate and culture and the rationale for examining these together. Next, using survey data collected from 1342 employees in 32 Italian organizations, we found that employee-level supervisor enforcement, organizational-level safety climate, and autocratic, bureaucratic, and technocratic safety culture dimensions all predicted individual-level safety compliance behaviors. However, the cross-level moderating effect of safety climate was bounded by certain safety culture dimensions, such that safety climate moderated the supervisor enforcement-compliance relationship only under the clan-patronage culture dimension. Additionally, the autocratic and bureaucratic culture dimensions attenuated the relationship between supervisor enforcement and compliance. Finally, when testing the effects of technocratic safety culture and cooperative safety culture, neither safety culture nor climate moderated the relationship between supervisor enforcement and safety compliance. The results suggest a complex relationship between organizational safety culture and safety climate, indicating that organizations with particular safety cultures may be more likely to develop more (or less) positive safety climates. Moreover, employee safety compliance is a function of supervisor safety leadership, as well as the safety climate and safety culture dimensions prevalent within the organization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Safety first!

    CERN Multimedia

    2016-01-01

    Among the many duties I assumed at the beginning of the year was the ultimate responsibility for Safety at CERN: the responsibility for the physical safety of the personnel, the responsibility for the safe operation of the facilities, and the responsibility to ensure that CERN acts in accordance with the highest standards of radiation and environmental protection.   The Safety Policy document drawn up in September 2014 is an excellent basis for the implementation of Safety in all areas of CERN’s work. I am happy to commit during my mandate to help meet its objectives, not least by ensuring the Organization makes available the necessary means to achieve its Safety objectives. One of the main objectives of the HSE (Occupational Health and Safety and Environmental Protection) unit in the coming months is to enhance the measures to minimise CERN’s impact on the environment. I believe CERN should become a role model for an environmentally-aware scientific research laboratory. Risk ...

  8. Radiation safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jain, Priyanka

    2014-01-01

    The use of radiation sources is a privilege; in order to retain the privilege, all persons who use sources of radiation must follow policies and procedures for their safe and legal use. The purpose of this poster is to describe the policies and procedures of the Radiation Protection Program. Specific conditions of radiation safety require the establishment of peer committees to evaluate proposals for the use of radionuclides, the appointment of a radiation safety officer, and the implementation of a radiation safety program. In addition, the University and Medical Centre administrations have determined that the use of radiation producing machines and non-ionizing radiation sources shall be included in the radiation safety program. These Radiation Safety policies are intended to ensure that such use is in accordance with applicable State and Federal regulations and accepted standards as directed towards the protection of health and the minimization of hazard to life or property. It is the policy that all activities involving ionizing radiation or radiation emitting devices be conducted so as to keep hazards from radiation to a minimum. Persons involved in these activities are expected to comply fully with the Canadian Nuclear Safety Act and all it. The risk of prosecution by the Department of Health and Community Services exists if compliance with all applicable legislation is not fulfilled. (author)

  9. Safety and reliability in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombo, A.G.

    1985-01-01

    This volume contains the papers presented at the ESRA Pre-Launching Meeting. The meeting was attended by about eighty European reliability and safety experts from industry, research organizations and universities. This meeting was dealing with the following subjects: the historical perspective of safety and reliability in Europe and to the aims of ESRA. Status and Trends in Research and Development; Codes, Standards and Regulations; Academic and Technical Training. National and international Organizations. Twenty six papers have been analyzed and abstracted for inclusion in the data base

  10. Nuclear power plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1974-01-01

    Action at the international level will assume greater importance as the number of nuclear power plants increases, especially in the more densely populated parts of the world. Predictions of growth made prior to October 1973 [9] indicated that, by 1980, 14% of the electricity would be supplied by nuclear plants and by the year 2000 this figure would be about 50%. This will make the topic of international co-operation and standards of even greater importance. The IAEA has long been active in providing assistance to Member States in the siting design and operation of nuclear reactors. These activities have been pursued through advisory missions, the publication of codes of practice, guide books, technical reports and in arranging meetings to promote information exchange. During the early development of nuclear power, there was no well-established body of experience which would allow formulation of internationally acceptable safety criteria, except in a few special cases. Hence, nuclear power plant safety and reliability matters often received an ad hoc approach which necessarily entailed a lack of consistency in the criteria used and in the levels of safety required. It is clear that the continuation of an ad hoc approach to safety will prove inadequate in the context of a world-wide nuclear power industry, and the international trade which this implies. As in several other fields, the establishment of internationally acceptable safety standards and appropriate guides for use by regulatory bodies, utilities, designers and constructors, is becoming a necessity. The IAEA is presently planning the development of a comprehensive set of basic requirements for nuclear power plant safety, and the associated reliability requirements, which would be internationally acceptable, and could serve as a standard frame of reference for nuclear plant safety and reliability analyses

  11. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  12. Nuclear Safety Review for 2014

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-07-01

    The Nuclear Safety Review 2014 focuses on the dominant nuclear safety trends, issues and challenges in 2013. The Executive Overview provides general nuclear safety information along with a summary of the major issues covered in this report: strengthening safety in nuclear installations; improving radiation, transport and waste safety; enhancing emergency preparedness and response (EPR); improving regulatory infrastructure and effectiveness; and strengthening civil liability for nuclear damage. The Appendix provides details on the activities of the Commission on Safety Standards, and activities relevant to the Agency’s safety standards. The global nuclear community has made steady and continuous progress in strengthening nuclear safety in 2013, as promoted by the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (hereinafter referred to as “the Action Plan”) and reported in Progress in the Implementation of the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (document GOV/INF/2013/8-GC(57)/INF/5), and the Supplementary Information to that report and Progress in the Implementation of the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (document GOV/INF/2014/2). • Significant progress continues to be made in several key areas, such as assessments of safety vulnerabilities of nuclear power plants (NPPs), strengthening of the Agency’s peer review services, improvements in EPR capabilities, strengthening and maintaining capacity building, and protecting people and the environment from ionizing radiation. The progress that has been made in these and other areas has contributed to the enhancement of the global nuclear safety framework. • Significant progress has also been made in reviewing the Agency’s safety standards, which continue to be widely applied by regulators, operators and the nuclear industry in general, with increased attention and focus on vitally important areas such as design and operation of NPPs, protection of NPPs against severe accidents, and EPR. • The Agency continued to

  13. SAFETY INSTRUCTION AND SAFETY NOTE

    CERN Multimedia

    TIS Secretariat

    2002-01-01

    Please note that the SAFETY INSTRUCTION N0 49 (IS 49) and the SAFETY NOTE N0 28 (NS 28) entitled respectively 'AVOIDING CHEMICAL POLLUTION OF WATER' and 'CERN EXHIBITIONS - FIRE PRECAUTIONS' are available on the web at the following urls: http://edms.cern.ch/document/335814 and http://edms.cern.ch/document/335861 Paper copies can also be obtained from the TIS Divisional Secretariat, email: TIS.Secretariat@cern.ch

  14. Young workers’ occupational safety knowledge creation and habits

    OpenAIRE

    Hejduk, Irena; Tomczyk, Przemysław

    2015-01-01

    The problem of young workers'safety culture is important because of the unfavorable demographic trend occurring in the European Union and determinants of competitiveness and innovativeness of the economy. The paper presents the concept and the importance of safety culture and goals of the research program, the aim of which is the construction and verification of the model based on the transfer of knowledge regarding the safety and methods of its implementation.Safety culture is a der...

  15. Automatic trend estimation

    CERN Document Server

    Vamos¸, C˘alin

    2013-01-01

    Our book introduces a method to evaluate the accuracy of trend estimation algorithms under conditions similar to those encountered in real time series processing. This method is based on Monte Carlo experiments with artificial time series numerically generated by an original algorithm. The second part of the book contains several automatic algorithms for trend estimation and time series partitioning. The source codes of the computer programs implementing these original automatic algorithms are given in the appendix and will be freely available on the web. The book contains clear statement of the conditions and the approximations under which the algorithms work, as well as the proper interpretation of their results. We illustrate the functioning of the analyzed algorithms by processing time series from astrophysics, finance, biophysics, and paleoclimatology. The numerical experiment method extensively used in our book is already in common use in computational and statistical physics.

  16. FEOL technology trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taur, Y.; Ning, T.H.

    1998-01-01

    Trends in front-end-of-line technology are discussed. At the chip level, many of the important parameters are published in the National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors in 1994. At the device and circuit level, both bipolar and CMOS are scalable. However, the large standby power of bipolar circuits severely limits the integration level of bipolar chips. The inherently low standby power of CMOS, on the contrary, allows the integration level of CMOS circuits to continue increasing with scaling. In reality, both the electric field and power density of CMOS devices have been gradually rising over the generations owing to non-scaling effects of thermal voltage and silicon bandgap. As power supply voltage reaches 1.5V and below, circuit performance can only be gained at the expense of higher active or standby power of the chip. Implications of device scaling on contact and silicide technology are addressed. Trends of local and global interconnect scaling are discussed. (orig.)

  17. Nuclear energy - overview of development trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    Proceeding from the organizational structure of the IAEA selected activities of the IAEA in connection with power reactor safety are dealt with. Based on the IAEA's computerized Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) a survey is presented of the most recent statistical data concerning status and trends of nuclear power plant development throughout the world. The central role of the IAEA in assisting Member States in the utilization of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is underscored. Finally, a brief account of the state-of-the-art of the USSR's nuclear power programme is given

  18. Nuclear power internationally, status and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laue, H.J.

    1988-01-01

    The recent events have stimulated the discussion concerning the human factor in nuclear engineering. Without a guarantee of the reliability and responsibility of everybody concerned, both directly and indirectly, the future of nuclear power will look bleak in an increasing number of countries. The present status and probable future development of nuclear power are outlined, and general trends are discussed. The future use of nuclear power will be concentrated in countries of high political stability which can assure safety, availability and economic efficiency. (orig.) [de

  19. Skin Cancer Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Children from the Sun? Are There Benefits to Spending Time Outdoors? The Surgeon General’s Call to Action to Prevent Skin Cancer Related Resources Sun Safety Tips for Men Tips for Families Tips for Schools Tips for Employers Tips for ...

  20. System safety education focused on flight safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, E.

    1971-01-01

    The measures necessary for achieving higher levels of system safety are analyzed with an eye toward maintaining the combat capability of the Air Force. Several education courses were provided for personnel involved in safety management. Data include: (1) Flight Safety Officer Course, (2) Advanced Safety Program Management, (3) Fundamentals of System Safety, and (4) Quantitative Methods of Safety Analysis.