Trends in safety pharmacology: posters presented at the annual meetings of the Safety Pharmacology Society 2001-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Redfern, William S; Valentin, Jean-Pierre

2011-01-01

The inaugural meeting of the Safety Pharmacology Society (SPS) was in 2001, soon after ICH S7A had been adopted. The 10th anniversary is an appropriate milestone at which to analyse trends in the science and themes of safety pharmacology, as reflected in posters presented at the annual meetings. The source information was the poster abstract booklets from each of the first ten annual meetings. The number of posters rose steadily from 34 in 2001 to 201 in 2010. The proportion of posters containing in vitro data has remained constant throughout the decade at ~30%. In terms of organ functions, themes relating to the cardiovascular system (CVS) have always generated the majority of posters, remaining above 60% of the total for the last 9years. The dominant theme has been around 'QT liability'. This peaked in 2003 at 68% of all posters presented, around the time of the ICHS7B discussions, and has remained above 30% thereafter. Apart from 2003 (dipping to 4%), CNS-related posters have remained steady at 11-17% throughout the decade. Respiratory-related posters have remained at 5-8% over the last 5years. Gastrointestinal (GI)-related posters have contributed 2-6% throughout the decade, and renal-related posters 1-3%. Posters on combined organ assessments have appeared in recent years. The relative emphasis on the different organ functions is broadly proportional to the causes of candidate drug attrition preclinically, whereas both CNS and GI are under-represented when considering their contribution to significant adverse effects during clinical development. Trends are either regulatory-driven (e.g. increase in posters on abuse-dependence liability since EMEA/CHMP/SWP/94227/2004), technology-driven (e.g. automated hERG assay; left ventricular function; non-invasive CVS measurements; stem cells, etc.), or relate to the predictive ability of safety pharmacology data (e.g. clinical translation initiatives; concordance between in vitro and in vivo preclinical data; integrated

Prediction Model of Machining Failure Trend Based on Large Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jirong

2017-12-01

The mechanical processing has high complexity, strong coupling, a lot of control factors in the machining process, it is prone to failure, in order to improve the accuracy of fault detection of large mechanical equipment, research on fault trend prediction requires machining, machining fault trend prediction model based on fault data. The characteristics of data processing using genetic algorithm K mean clustering for machining, machining feature extraction which reflects the correlation dimension of fault, spectrum characteristics analysis of abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process, the extraction method of the abnormal vibration of complex mechanical parts processing process of multi-component spectral decomposition and empirical mode decomposition Hilbert based on feature extraction and the decomposition results, in order to establish the intelligent expert system for the data base, combined with large data analysis method to realize the machining of the Fault trend prediction. The simulation results show that this method of fault trend prediction of mechanical machining accuracy is better, the fault in the mechanical process accurate judgment ability, it has good application value analysis and fault diagnosis in the machining process.

Emotional exhaustion and workload predict clinician-rated and objective patient safety

Science.gov (United States)

Welp, Annalena; Meier, Laurenz L.; Manser, Tanja

2015-01-01

Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic, and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables, and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. Regression analysis (multilevel) was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience) and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability) characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety was associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios. Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables and support to the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety. PMID:25657627

Emotional Exhaustion and Workload Predict Clinician-Rated and Objective Patient Safety

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annalena eWelp

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Aims: To investigate the role of clinician burnout, demographic and organizational characteristics in predicting subjective and objective indicators of patient safety. Background: Maintaining clinician health and ensuring safe patient care are important goals for hospitals. While these goals are not independent from each other, the interplay between clinician psychological health, demographic and organizational variables and objective patient safety indicators is poorly understood. The present study addresses this gap. Method: Participants were 1425 physicians and nurses working in intensive care. (Multilevel regression analysis was used to investigate the effect of burnout as an indicator of psychological health, demographic (e.g., professional role and experience and organizational (e.g., workload, predictability characteristics on standardized mortality ratios, length of stay and clinician-rated patient safety. Results: Clinician-rated patient safety were associated with burnout, trainee status, and professional role. Mortality was predicted by emotional exhaustion. Length of stay was predicted by workload. Contrary to our expectations, burnout did not predict length of stay, and workload and predictability did not predict standardized mortality ratios.Conclusion: At least in the short-term, clinicians seem to be able to maintain safety despite high workload and low predictability. Nevertheless, burnout poses a safety risk. Subjectively, burnt-out clinicians rated safety lower, and objectively, units with high emotional exhaustion had higher standardized mortality ratios. In summary, our results indicate that clinician psychological health and patient safety could be managed simultaneously. Further research needs to establish causal relationships between these variables or and support the development of managerial guidelines to ensure clinicians’ psychological health and patients’ safety.

The predictive validity of safety climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Stephen E

2007-01-01

Safety professionals have increasingly turned their attention to social science for insight into the causation of industrial accidents. One social construct, safety climate, has been examined by several researchers [Cooper, M. D., & Phillips, R. A. (2004). Exploratory analysis of the safety climate and safety behavior relationship. Journal of Safety Research, 35(5), 497-512; Gillen, M., Baltz, D., Gassel, M., Kirsch, L., & Vacarro, D. (2002). Perceived safety climate, job Demands, and coworker support among union and nonunion injured construction workers. Journal of Safety Research, 33(1), 33-51; Neal, A., & Griffin, M. A. (2002). Safety climate and safety behaviour. Australian Journal of Management, 27, 66-76; Zohar, D. (2000). A group-level model of safety climate: Testing the effect of group climate on microaccidents in manufacturing jobs. Journal of Applied Psychology, 85(4), 587-596; Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group-level climates. Journal of Applied Psychology, 90(4), 616-628] who have documented its importance as a factor explaining the variation of safety-related outcomes (e.g., behavior, accidents). Researchers have developed instruments for measuring safety climate and have established some degree of psychometric reliability and validity. The problem, however, is that predictive validity has not been firmly established, which reduces the credibility of safety climate as a meaningful social construct. The research described in this article addresses this problem and provides additional support for safety climate as a viable construct and as a predictive indicator of safety-related outcomes. This study used 292 employees at three locations of a heavy manufacturing organization to complete the 16 item Zohar Safety Climate Questionnaire (ZSCQ) [Zohar, D., & Luria, G. (2005). A multilevel model of safety climate: Cross-level relationships between organization and group

Predicting the Trends of Social Events on Chinese Social Media.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Lei; Liu, Xiaoqian; Zhang, Zhen; Bai, Shuotian; Zhu, Tingshao

2017-09-01

Growing interest in social events on social media came along with the rapid development of the Internet. Social events that occur in the "real" world can spread on social media (e.g., Sina Weibo) rapidly, which may trigger severe consequences and thus require the government's timely attention and responses. This article proposes to predict the trends of social events on Sina Weibo, which is currently the most popular social media in China. Based on the theories of social psychology and communication sciences, we extract an unprecedented amount of comprehensive and effective features that relate to the trends of social events on Chinese social media, and we construct the trends of prediction models by using three classical regression algorithms. We found that lasso regression performed better with the precision 0.78 and the recall 0.88. The results of our experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach.

The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Goetzel, Ron Z; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Tabrizi, Maryam J; Kent, Karen B; Smith, Kristyn J; Roemer, Enid Chung; Grossmeier, Jessica; Mason, Shawn T; Gold, Daniel B; Noeldner, Steven P; Anderson, David R

2014-02-01

To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures. Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends. "High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low." The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.

Trend analysis of incidents involving setpoint drift in safety or safety/relief valves at U.S. LWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

2008-01-01

Since the beginning of the 1980's, in the United States, there have been many licensee event reports (LERs) involving setpoint drift in safety or safety/relief valves. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued a lot of generic communications on this issue and the industry has made efforts to resolve the issue. However, the NRC staff recently highlighted that over 70 LERs involved instances where safety or safety/relief valves failed to meet the allowed setpoint tolerance from 2001 through August 2006. In the present study, we analyzed the U.S. experience with setpoint drift in safety/relief valves (SRVs) at BWRs, pressurizer safety valves (PSVs), and main steam safety valves (MSSVs) at PWRs by reviewing approximately 90 LERs from 2000 to 2006 and examined the trend focusing on causes and setpoint deviation ranges. This study indicates that for SRVs and MSSVs, disc-seat bonding is a dominant cause of the setpoint drifting high and has a tendency to result in a relatively large deviation of the setpoint. This means that disc-seat bonding might be a safety concern from the view point of overpressure protection. For PSVs, the deviation of setpoints is generally small, although its causes are not specified in many instances. (author)

Predicting and preventing organizational failure: learning, stability and safety culture

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, R.B.

2009-01-01

The physical definition of 'safety culture' is the creation of an organizational and operational structure that places unending emphasis on safety at every level. We propose and prefer the use of the term and the objective of sustaining a 'Learning Environment', where mistakes, outcomes and errors are used as learning vehicles to improve, and we can now define why that is true. Therefore we can manage and quantify safety effectively tracking and analyzing outcomes, using the trends to guide our needed organizational behaviors. (author)

Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Reveley, Mary S.; Withrow, Colleen A.; Barr, Lawrence C.; Evans, Joni K.; Leone, Karen M.; Jones, Sharon M.

2014-01-01

Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

Towards predictive cardiovascular safety : a systems pharmacology approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Snelder, Nelleke

2014-01-01

Cardiovascular safety issues related to changes in blood pressure, arise frequently in drug development. In the thesis “Towards predictive cardiovascular safety – a systems pharmacology approach”, a system-specific model is described to quantify drug effects on the interrelationship between mean

Time series trends of the safety effects of pavement resurfacing.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Juneyoung; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Jung-Han

2017-04-01

This study evaluated the safety performance of pavement resurfacing projects on urban arterials in Florida using the observational before and after approaches. The safety effects of pavement resurfacing were quantified in the crash modification factors (CMFs) and estimated based on different ranges of heavy vehicle traffic volume and time changes for different severity levels. In order to evaluate the variation of CMFs over time, crash modification functions (CMFunctions) were developed using nonlinear regression and time series models. The results showed that pavement resurfacing projects decrease crash frequency and are found to be more safety effective to reduce severe crashes in general. Moreover, the results of the general relationship between the safety effects and time changes indicated that the CMFs increase over time after the resurfacing treatment. It was also found that pavement resurfacing projects for the urban roadways with higher heavy vehicle volume rate are more safety effective than the roadways with lower heavy vehicle volume rate. Based on the exploration and comparison of the developed CMFucntions, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential functional form of the nonlinear regression models can be utilized to identify the trend of CMFs over time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for civil service employees of a federal public health agency.

Science.gov (United States)

Spears, D Ross; McNeil, Carrie; Warnock, Eli; Trapp, Jonathan; Oyinloye, Oluremi; Whitehurst, Vanessa; Decker, K C; Chapman, Sandy; Campbell, Morris; Meechan, Paul

2014-06-01

This study evaluates the predictability in temporal absences trends due to all causes (total absenteeism) among employees at a federal agency. The objective is to determine how leave trends vary within the year, and determine whether trends are predictable. Ten years of absenteeism data from an attendance system were analyzed for rates of total absence. Trends over a 10-year period followed predictable and regular patterns during a given year that correspond to major holiday periods. Temporal trends in leave among small, medium, and large facilities compared favorably with the agency as a whole. Temporal trends in total absenteeism rates for an organization can be determined using its attendance system. The ability to predict employee absenteeism rates can be extremely helpful for management in optimizing business performance and ensuring that an organization meets its mission.

Evaluating and Predicting Patient Safety for Medical Devices With Integral Information Technology

Science.gov (United States)

2005-01-01

323 Evaluating and Predicting Patient Safety for Medical Devices with Integral Information Technology Jiajie Zhang, Vimla L. Patel, Todd R...errors are due to inappropriate designs for user interactions, rather than mechanical failures. Evaluating and predicting patient safety in medical ...the users on the identified trouble spots in the devices. We developed two methods for evaluating and predicting patient safety in medical devices

A study of the international trend and comprehensive enhancement program on the Nuclear Power Plant safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Soon Hong; Cho, Nam Jin; Paek, Won Phil

1990-12-01

The objectives of this study are as follows : overview of the international trend related to the safety of Nuclear Power Plant(NPPs), study of the present status of NPP safety in Korea in aspects of design, construction and operation, suggestion of the comprehensive program to improve NPP safety in Korea. The results of this study can contribute to improve the safety of existing and future NPPs, and to establish the severe accident policy in Korea

A study of the international trend and comprehensive enhancement program on the Nuclear Power Plant safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Soon Hong; Cho, Nam Jin; Paek, Won Phil [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1990-12-15

The objectives of this study are as follows : overview of the international trend related to the safety of Nuclear Power Plant(NPPs), study of the present status of NPP safety in Korea in aspects of design, construction and operation, suggestion of the comprehensive program to improve NPP safety in Korea. The results of this study can contribute to improve the safety of existing and future NPPs, and to establish the severe accident policy in Korea.

Safety prediction technique for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henry, C.D. III; Anderson, R.T.

1985-01-01

This paper presents a safety prediction technique (SPT) developed by Reliability Technology Associates (RTA) for nuclear power plants. It is based on a technique applied by RTA to assess the flight safety of US Air Force aircraft. The purpose of SPT is to provide a computerized technique for objective measurement of the effect on nuclear plant safety of component failure or procedural, software, or human error. A quantification is determined, called criticality, which is proportional to the probability that a given component or procedural-human action will cause the plant to operate in a hazardous mode. A hazardous mode is characterized by the fact that there has been a failure/error and the plant, its operating crew, and the public are exposed to danger. Whether the event results in an accident, an incident, or merely the exposure to danger is dependent on the skill and reaction of the operating crew as well as external influences. There are three major uses of SPT: (a) to predict unsafe situations so that corrective action can be taken before accidents occur, (b) to quantify the impact of equipment malfunction or procedural, software, or human error on safety and thereby establish priorities for proposed modifications, and (c) to provide a means of evaluating proposed changes for their impact on safety prior to implementation and to provide a method of tracking implemented changes

Analyzing research trends on drug safety using topic modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Zou, Chen

2018-04-06

Published drug safety data has evolved in the past decade due to scientific and technological advances in the relevant research fields. Considering that a vast amount of scientific literature has been published in this area, it is not easy to identify the key information. Topic modeling has emerged as a powerful tool to extract meaningful information from a large volume of unstructured texts. Areas covered: We analyzed the titles and abstracts of 4347 articles in four journals dedicated to drug safety from 2007 to 2016. We applied Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model to extract 50 main topics, and conducted trend analysis to explore the temporal popularity of these topics over years. Expert Opinion/Commentary: We found that 'benefit-risk assessment and communication', 'diabetes' and 'biologic therapy for autoimmune diseases' are the top 3 most published topics. The topics relevant to the use of electronic health records/observational data for safety surveillance are becoming increasingly popular over time. Meanwhile, there is a slight decrease in research on signal detection based on spontaneous reporting, although spontaneous reporting still plays an important role in benefit-risk assessment. The topics related to medical conditions and treatment showed highly dynamic patterns over time.

Modeling pitting growth data and predicting degradation trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Viglasky, T.; Awad, R.; Zeng, Z.; Riznic, J.

2007-01-01

A non-statistical modeling approach to predict material degradation is presented in this paper. In this approach, the original data series is processed using Accumulated Generating Operation (AGO). With the aid of the AGO which weakens the random fluctuation embedded in the data series, an approximately exponential curve is established. The generated data series described by the exponential curve is then modeled by a differential equation. The coefficients of the differential equation can be deduced by approximate difference formula based on least-squares algorithm. By solving the differential equation and processing an inverse AGO, a predictive model can be obtained. As this approach is not established on the basis of statistics, the prediction can be performed with a limited amount of data. Implementation of this approach is demonstrated by predicting the pitting growth rate in specimens and wear trend in steam generator tubes. The analysis results indicate that this approach provides a powerful tool with reasonable precision to predict material degradation. (author)

Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

Science.gov (United States)

Roychoudhury, Indranil

2016-01-01

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

Mining Behavior Based Safety Data to Predict Safety Performance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeffrey C. Joe

2010-06-01

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) operates a behavior based safety program called Safety Observations Achieve Results (SOAR). This peer-to-peer observation program encourages employees to perform in-field observations of each other's work practices and habits (i.e., behaviors). The underlying premise of conducting these observations is that more serious accidents are prevented from occurring because lower level “at risk” behaviors are identified and corrected before they can propagate into culturally accepted “unsafe” behaviors that result in injuries or fatalities. Although the approach increases employee involvement in safety, the premise of the program has not been subject to sufficient empirical evaluation. The INL now has a significant amount of SOAR data on these lower level “at risk” behaviors. This paper describes the use of data mining techniques to analyze these data to determine whether they can predict if and when a more serious accident will occur.

Trending of low level events and near misses to enhance safety performance in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-11-01

The IAEA Safety Fundamentals publication, Safety of Nuclear Installations, Safety Series No. 110, states the need for operating organizations to establish a programme for the collection and analysis of operating experience in nuclear power plants. Such a programme ensures that operating experience is analysed, events important to safety are reviewed in depth, and lessons learned are disseminated to the staff of the organization and to relevant national and international organizations. As a result of the effort to enhance safety in operating organizations, incidents are progressively decreasing in number and significance. This means that in accordance with international reporting requirements the amount of collected data becomes less sufficient to draw meaningful statistical conclusions. This is where the collection and trend analysis of low level events and near misses can prove to be very useful. These trends can show which of the safety barriers are weak or failing more frequently. Evaluation and trending of low level events and near misses will help to prevent major incidents because latent weaknesses have been identified and corrective actions taken to prevent recurrence. This leads to improved safety and production. Low level events and near misses, which may reach several thousand per reactor operating year, need to be treated by the organizations as learning opportunities. A system for capturing these low level events and near misses truly needs to be an organization-wide system in which all levels of the organization, including contractors, participate. It is desirable that the overall operational experience feedback (OEF) process should integrate the lessons learned and the associated data from significant events with those of lower level events and near misses. To be able to effectively implement a process dealing with low level events and near misses, it is necessary that the organization have a well established OEF process for significant events

Predicting ICU hemodynamic instability using continuous multiparameter trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Hanqing; Eshelman, Larry; Chbat, Nicolas; Nielsen, Larry; Gross, Brian; Saeed, Mohammed

2008-01-01

Identifying hemodynamically unstable patients in a timely fashion in intensive care units (ICUs) is crucial because it can lead to earlier interventions and thus to potentially better patient outcomes. Current alert algorithms are typically limited to detecting dangerous conditions only after they have occurred and suffer from high false alert rates. Our objective was to predict hemodynamic instability at least two hours before a major clinical intervention (e.g., vasopressor administration), while maintaining a low false alert rate. From the MIMIC II database, containing ICU minute-by-minute heart rate (HR) and invasive arterial blood pressure (BP) monitoring trend data collected between 2001 and 2005, we identified 132 stable and 104 unstable patients that met our stability-instability criteria and had sufficient data points. We first derived additional physiological parameters of shock index, rate pressure product, heart rate variability, and two measures of trending based on HR and BP. Then we developed 220 statistical features and systematically selected a small set to use for classification. We applied multi-variable logistic regression modeling to do classification and implemented validation via bootstrapping. Area under receiver-operating curve (ROC) 0.83+/-0.03, sensitivity 0.75+/-0.06, and specificity 0.80+/-0.07; if the specificity is targeted at 0.90, then the sensitivity is 0.57+/-0.07. Based on our preliminary results, we conclude that the algorithms we developed using HR and BP trend data may provide a promising perspective toward reliable predictive alerts for hemodynamically unstable patients.

Risk prediction, safety analysis and quantitative probability methods - a caveat

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Critchley, O.H.

1976-01-01

Views are expressed on the use of quantitative techniques for the determination of value judgements in nuclear safety assessments, hazard evaluation, and risk prediction. Caution is urged when attempts are made to quantify value judgements in the field of nuclear safety. Criteria are given the meaningful application of reliability methods but doubts are expressed about their application to safety analysis, risk prediction and design guidances for experimental or prototype plant. Doubts are also expressed about some concomitant methods of population dose evaluation. The complexities of new designs of nuclear power plants make the problem of safety assessment more difficult but some possible approaches are suggested as alternatives to the quantitative techniques criticized. (U.K.)

COMPARISON OF TREND PROJECTION METHODS AND BACKPROPAGATION PROJECTIONS METHODS TREND IN PREDICTING THE NUMBER OF VICTIMS DIED IN TRAFFIC ACCIDENT IN TIMOR TENGAH REGENCY, NUSA TENGGARA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksius Madu

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to predict the number of traffic accident victims who died in Timor Tengah Regency with Trend Projection method and Backpropagation method, and compare the two methods based on the degree of guilt and predict the number traffic accident victims in the Timor Tengah Regency for the coming year. This research was conducted in Timor Tengah Regency where data used in this study was obtained from Police Unit in Timor Tengah Regency. The data is on the number of traffic accidents in Timor Tengah Regency from 2000 – 2013, which is obtained by a quantitative analysis with Trend Projection and Backpropagation method. The results of the data analysis predicting the number of traffic accidents victims using Trend Projection method obtained the best model which is the quadratic trend model with equation Yk = 39.786 + (3.297 X + (0.13 X2. Whereas by using back propagation method, it is obtained the optimum network that consists of 2 inputs, 3 hidden screens, and 1 output. Based on the error rates obtained, Back propagation method is better than the Trend Projection method which means that the predicting accuracy with Back propagation method is the best method to predict the number of traffic accidents victims in Timor Tengah Regency. Thus obtained predicting the numbers of traffic accident victims for the next 5 years (Years 2014-2018 respectively - are 106 person, 115 person, 115 person, 119 person and 120 person.   Keywords: Trend Projection, Back propagation, Predicting.

Caffeine-based food supplements and beverages: Trends of consumption for performance purposes and safety concerns.

Science.gov (United States)

Bessada, Sílvia M F; Alves, Rita C; Oliveira, M Beatriz P P

2018-07-01

Nowadays, daily food supplementation regarding the improvement of physical and mental performance is a growing trend in sport practitioners, young students and active people. Food supplements are foodstuffs, labeled under food law and not obliged to safety assessments before their commercialization. Several products are commercialized claiming ergogenic effects as marketing strategies. Caffeine is often one of their main ingredients, as it increases both physical performance and concentration. This manuscript presents a general overview of the current caffeine-based food supplements and energy drinks available in the Portuguese market, as well as the consuming trends regarding their ergogenic effects, performance purposes, and active ingredients. Product claims, recommended daily intakes, caffeine pharmacology, and safety concerns aspects are also discussed aspects. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New trends in pile safety instrumentation; Les tendances nouvelles dans l'instrumentation de securite des piles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Furet, J.

1961-04-19

This report addresses the protection of nuclear piles against damages due to operation incidents. The author discusses the current trends in the philosophy of safety of atomic power piles, identifies the parameters which define safety systems, presents tests to be performed on safety chains, comments the relationship between safety and the decrease of the number of pile inadvertent shutdowns, discusses the issues of instrument failures and chain multiplicity, comments the possible improvement of the operation of elements which build up safety chains (design simplification, development of semiconductors, replacement of electromechanical relays by static relays), the role of safety logical computers and the development of automatics in pile safety, presents automatic control as a safety factor (example of automatic start-up), and finally comments the use of fuses.

Cognitive functioning differentially predicts different dimensions of older drivers' on-road safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Aksan, Nazan; Anderson, Steve W; Dawson, Jeffrey; Uc, Ergun; Rizzo, Matthew

2015-02-01

The extent to which deficits in specific cognitive domains contribute to older drivers' safety risk in complex real-world driving tasks is not well understood. We selected 148 drivers older than 70 years of age both with and without neurodegenerative diseases (Alzheimer disease-AD and Parkinson disease-PD) from an existing driving database of older adults. Participant assessments included on-road driving safety and cognitive functioning in visuospatial construction, speed of processing, memory, and executive functioning. The standardized on-road drive test was designed to examine multiple facets of older driver safety including navigation performance (e.g., following a route, identifying landmarks), safety errors while concurrently performing secondary navigation tasks ("on-task" safety errors), and safety errors in the absence of any secondary navigation tasks ("baseline" safety errors). The inter-correlations of these outcome measures were fair to moderate supporting their distinctiveness. Participants with diseases performed worse than the healthy aging group on all driving measures and differences between those with AD and PD were minimal. In multivariate analyses, different domains of cognitive functioning predicted distinct facets of driver safety on road. Memory and set-shifting predicted performance in navigation-related secondary tasks, speed of processing predicted on-task safety errors, and visuospatial construction predicted baseline safety errors. These findings support broad assessments of cognitive functioning to inform decisions regarding older driver safety on the road and suggest navigation performance may be useful in evaluating older driver fitness and restrictions in licensing. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear Installation Safety: General Observations and Trends from IAEA Peer Reviews

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rzentkowski, G.

2016-01-01

The Safety Review Services (SRSs) for nuclear installations address the needs of Member States at all stages of installations’ lifecycle. SRSs are based on the IAEA Safety Standards and are provided on Member States’ request to peer review national regulatory frameworks and safety provisions for nuclear installations. They result in recommendations and suggestions to improve national regulations and operational safety, and serve to exert peer pressure to ensure that that every Member State with nuclear installations recognizes its safety responsibility and the need to comply with the IAEA Safety Standards. This presentation provides an overview of SRSs for Nuclear Installations, including their structure and main subject areas. The presentation also summarizes general findings and trends which clearly demonstrate that there is continuous improvement in regulation of nuclear installations and in safety of their operation. Nevertheless, there is the need to further enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of SRSs through review of the overall governance model and service delivery to better serve the needs of Member States. The presentation points out some areas of improvements which have already been implemented or are being considered for implementation. Just as important, SRSs are conducted by teams of experts from around the world to strengthening international cooperation, ensure diversity and impartiality, and improve the overall quality of the safety review being conducted. The review team members are also provided with the opportunity for mutual learning and sharing good practices among themselves and with the Member State undergoing the review. As a result, SRAs play an important role in a quest to harmonize regulatory requirements and approaches globally. (author)

Prediction of two-phase choked-flow through safety valves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnulfo, G; Bertani, C; De Salve, M

2014-01-01

Different models of two-phase choked flow through safety valves are applied in order to evaluate their capabilities of prediction in different thermal-hydraulic conditions. Experimental data available in the literature for two-phase fluid and subcooled liquid upstream the safety valve have been compared with the models predictions. Both flashing flows and non-flashing flows of liquid and incondensable gases have been considered. The present paper shows that for flashing flows good predictions are obtained by using the two-phase valve discharge coefficient defined by Lenzing and multiplying it by the critical flow rate in an ideal nozzle evaluated by either Omega Method or the Homogeneous Non-equilibrium Direct Integration. In case of non-flashing flows of water and air, Leung/Darby formulation of the two-phase valve discharge coefficient together with the Omega Method is more suitable to the prediction of flow rate.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Predicting the future trend of popularity by network diffusion.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-06-01

Conventional approaches to predict the future popularity of products are mainly based on extrapolation of their current popularity, which overlooks the hidden microscopic information under the macroscopic trend. Here, we study diffusion processes on consumer-product and citation networks to exploit the hidden microscopic information and connect consumers to their potential purchase, publications to their potential citers to obtain a prediction for future item popularity. By using the data obtained from the largest online retailers including Netflix and Amazon as well as the American Physical Society citation networks, we found that our method outperforms the accurate short-term extrapolation and identifies the potentially popular items long before they become prominent.

Trends in fuel reprocessing safety research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsujino, Takeshi

1981-01-01

With the operation of a fuel reprocessing plant in the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PNC) and the plan for a second fuel reprocessing plant, the research on fuel reprocessing safety, along with the reprocessing technology itself, has become increasingly important. As compared with the case of LWR power plants, the safety research in this field still lags behind. In the safety of fuel reprocessing, there are the aspects of keeping radiation exposure as low as possible in both personnel and local people, the high reliability of the plant operation and the securing of public safety in accidents. Safety research is then required to establish the safety standards and to raise the rate of plant operation associated with safety. The following matters are described: basic ideas for the safety design, safety features in fuel reprocessing, safety guideline and standards, and safety research for fuel reprocessing. (J.P.N.)

ALWR safety approaches and trends. Implementation of passive safety features in the design

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ignatiev, V

1995-11-01

Reactor vendors world-wide are examining various advanced light water reactors (ALWR) options to reach utility goals. The amount of information available about each design varies essentially depending on its maturity. Some advanced reactor designs are the evolutionary results of combining old structures, systems and components in new ways, others use innovative solutions. A summary review is given for better understanding of new ALWR design trends and approaches in different countries and subsequent R and D activities. An attempt was made to describe and assess specific innovative and passive features implemented in the leading ALWR designs for further plant design safety improvements. The advantages and disadvantages of these innovations in obtaining reliable systems have been considered. Also, this report indicates the importance of uncertainties remaining and identifies the additional work needed. 51 refs, 27 figs, 7 tabs.

ALWR safety approaches and trends. Implementation of passive safety features in the design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ignatiev, V.

1995-11-01

Reactor vendors world-wide are examining various advanced light water reactors (ALWR) options to reach utility goals. The amount of information available about each design varies essentially depending on its maturity. Some advanced reactor designs are the evolutionary results of combining old structures, systems and components in new ways, others use innovative solutions. A summary review is given for better understanding of new ALWR design trends and approaches in different countries and subsequent R and D activities. An attempt was made to describe and assess specific innovative and passive features implemented in the leading ALWR designs for further plant design safety improvements. The advantages and disadvantages of these innovations in obtaining reliable systems have been considered. Also, this report indicates the importance of uncertainties remaining and identifies the additional work needed. 51 refs, 27 figs, 7 tabs

Mathematical models for prediction of safety factors for a simply ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

From the results obtained, mathematical prediction models were developed using a least square regression analysis for bending, shear and deflection modes of failure considered in the study. The results showed that the safety factors for material, dead and live load are not unique, but they are influenced by safety index ...

Case Study on Influence Factor Trend Analysis of the Accidents and Events of Nuclear Power Plants by applying Nuclear Safety Culture Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, J. Y.; Park, Y. W.; Park, H.G.

2016-01-01

This study 1) established the standard based on frameworks of safety culture principles that show safety culture promotion goals, 2) analyzed the linkages with the frameworks that were established by analyzing each incident cause and weak point from selected 268 cases(rating over INES grade 1) among 4,088 cases (as of April 1, 2015). The 4,088 cases were selected as a result of database analysis from 702 accidents recorded in accident and rating evaluation reports that were published in the National Nuclear Safety Commission and overseas IRS (International Reporting System for operating Experience), and 3) finally conducted a trend analysis studies with these comprehensive results. From the investigations, followings were concluded. 1) In order to analyze the safety culture, analysis methodology is required. 2) Analytical methodology for building sustainable safety culture promoting a virtuous cycle system was developed 3) Among variety of process input data, 970 domestic and overseas incidents were selected as targets and 502 accidents were classified as safety culture related events by utilizing screen filter of IAEA GS-G-3.5 Appendix I and Framework (Nuclear Safety Culture Base Frame) developed by BEES, Inc. for safety culture analysis method. 4) As a result, complex safety culture influence factors for the one reason which was difficult to separate by conventional methods was able to be analyzed. 5) The cumulative data through the system was results of virtuous trend analysis rather than temporary results. Thus, it could be unique cultural factors of the domestic industry and could derive trend differences for domestic safety culture factors accordingly

Case Study on Influence Factor Trend Analysis of the Accidents and Events of Nuclear Power Plants by applying Nuclear Safety Culture Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, J. Y.; Park, Y. W.; Park, H.G. [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-05-15

This study 1) established the standard based on frameworks of safety culture principles that show safety culture promotion goals, 2) analyzed the linkages with the frameworks that were established by analyzing each incident cause and weak point from selected 268 cases(rating over INES grade 1) among 4,088 cases (as of April 1, 2015). The 4,088 cases were selected as a result of database analysis from 702 accidents recorded in accident and rating evaluation reports that were published in the National Nuclear Safety Commission and overseas IRS (International Reporting System for operating Experience), and 3) finally conducted a trend analysis studies with these comprehensive results. From the investigations, followings were concluded. 1) In order to analyze the safety culture, analysis methodology is required. 2) Analytical methodology for building sustainable safety culture promoting a virtuous cycle system was developed 3) Among variety of process input data, 970 domestic and overseas incidents were selected as targets and 502 accidents were classified as safety culture related events by utilizing screen filter of IAEA GS-G-3.5 Appendix I and Framework (Nuclear Safety Culture Base Frame) developed by BEES, Inc. for safety culture analysis method. 4) As a result, complex safety culture influence factors for the one reason which was difficult to separate by conventional methods was able to be analyzed. 5) The cumulative data through the system was results of virtuous trend analysis rather than temporary results. Thus, it could be unique cultural factors of the domestic industry and could derive trend differences for domestic safety culture factors accordingly.

Prediction of Driving Safety in Individuals with Homonymous Hemianopia and Quadrantanopia from Clinical Neuroimaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael S. Vaphiades

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from −0.29 to 0.04. The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28. Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions.

Prediction of driving safety in individuals with homonymous hemianopia and quadrantanopia from clinical neuroimaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Vaphiades, Michael S; Kline, Lanning B; McGwin, Gerald; Owsley, Cynthia; Shah, Ritu; Wood, Joanne M

2014-01-01

Background. This study aimed to determine whether it is possible to predict driving safety of individuals with homonymous hemianopia or quadrantanopia based upon a clinical review of neuroimages that are routinely available in clinical practice. Methods. Two experienced neuroophthalmologists viewed a summary report of the CT/MRI scans of 16 participants with homonymous hemianopic or quadrantanopic field defects which indicated the site and extent of the lesion and they made predictions regarding whether participants would be safe/unsafe to drive. Driving safety was independently defined at the time of the study using state-recorded motor vehicle crashes (all crashes and at-fault) for the previous 5 years and ratings of driving safety determined through a standardized on-road driving assessment by a certified driving rehabilitation specialist. Results. The ability to predict driving safety was highly variable regardless of the driving safety measure, ranging from 31% to 63% (kappa levels ranged from -0.29 to 0.04). The level of agreement between the neuroophthalmologists was only fair (kappa = 0.28). Conclusions. Clinical evaluation of summary reports of currently available neuroimages by neuroophthalmologists is not predictive of driving safety. Future research should be directed at identifying and/or developing alternative tests or strategies to better enable clinicians to make these predictions.

A systematic review of the safety climate intervention literature: Past trends and future directions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jin; Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Cheung, Janelle H; Chen, Zhuo; Shaw, William S

2018-04-26

Safety climate represents the meaningfulness of safety and how safety is valued in an organization. The contributions of safety climate to organizational safety have been well documented. There is a dearth of empirical research, however, on specific safety climate interventions and their effectiveness. The present study aims at examining the trend of safety climate interventions and offering compiled information for designing and implementing evidence-based safety climate interventions. Our literature search yielded 384 titles that were inspected by three examiners. Using a stepwise process that allowed for assessment of interobserver agreement, 19 full articles were selected and reviewed. Results showed that 10 out of the 19 articles (52.6%) were based on a quasi-experimental pre- and postintervention design, whereas 42.1% (n = 8) studies were based on a mixed-design approach (including both between- and within-subject design). All interventions in these 19 studies involved either safety-/health-related communication or education/training. Improvement of safety leadership was also a common component of safety climate interventions. According to the socio-technical systems classification of intervention strategies, all studies were categorized as interventions focusing on improving organizational and managerial structure as well as the personnel subsystem; four of them also aimed at improving technological aspects of work, and five of them aimed at improving the physical work subsystem. In general, a vast majority of the studies (89.5%, n = 17) showed a statistically significant improvement in safety climate across their organizations postintervention. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Prediction of protein post-translational modifications: main trends and methods

Science.gov (United States)

Sobolev, B. N.; Veselovsky, A. V.; Poroikov, V. V.

2014-02-01

The review summarizes main trends in the development of methods for the prediction of protein post-translational modifications (PTMs) by considering the three most common types of PTMs — phosphorylation, acetylation and glycosylation. Considerable attention is given to general characteristics of regulatory interactions associated with PTMs. Different approaches to the prediction of PTMs are analyzed. Most of the methods are based only on the analysis of the neighbouring environment of modification sites. The related software is characterized by relatively low accuracy of PTM predictions, which may be due both to the incompleteness of training data and the features of PTM regulation. Advantages and limitations of the phylogenetic approach are considered. The prediction of PTMs using data on regulatory interactions, including the modular organization of interacting proteins, is a promising field, provided that a more carefully selected training data will be used. The bibliography includes 145 references.

Nuclear Safety R and D Programs and trend in the U. S. Utility Industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jong Hyun

1992-01-01

First of all, the deterministic approach to safety analysis, which had dominated safety research in the earlier years, has given much ground to probabilistic approach. Secondly, human factors analysis has become an important part of safety research. Third, safety research relevant to reliability, or safety combined with reliability, are gradually taking place of purely safety-oriented or stand-alone safety research. More and more nuclear utilities in the U. S. are integrating safety with reliability. This evolution is in part due to the successful completion of major safety testing and analyses of deterministic nature, and partially due to the utility industry's desire to harvest synergistic nature, and partially due to the utility industry's desire to harvest synergistic results by combining safety with reliability, as the utility industry is more and more concerned about reducing operation and maintenance costs by enhancing reliability while maintaining plant safety. Nuclear safety is a complex and comprehensive concept, defying a simple categorization or interpretation. Thus, research and development in nuclear safety is necessarily diverse, and the program areas and trend presented in this paper are not meant to be all inclusive. For instance, there are some other active areas that were not mentioned, such as seismic risk assessment program and others. Nuclear safety research and development activities have undergone a perceptible shift of emphasis in recent years. They have become more focused and product-oriented. Also, except for the severe accident analysis, the emphasis on prevention and mitigation of accident, rather than analyzing the consequences of accident, is very much in evidence; that is, reliability-based technologies using PIRA methodology, and upgrading of instrumentation and control technologies are in the main stream of activities

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

Group contribution modelling for the prediction of safety-related and environmental properties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Frutiger, Jerome; Abildskov, Jens; Sin, Gürkan

warming potential and ozone depletion potential. Process safety studies and environmental assessments rely on accurate property data. Safety data such as flammability limits, heat of combustion or auto ignition temperature play an important role in quantifying the risk of fire and explosions among others......We present a new set of property prediction models based on group contributions to predict major safety-related and environmental properties for organic compounds. The predicted list of properties includes lower and upper flammability limits, heat of combustion, auto ignition temperature, global...... models like group contribution (GC) models can estimate data. However, the estimation needs to be accurate, reliable and as little time-consuming as possible so that the models can be used on the fly. In this study the Marrero and Gani group contribution (MR GC) method has been used to develop the models...

AN ANALYSIS OF ACCIDENT TRENDS AND MODELING OF SAFETY INDICES IN AN INDIAN CONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunku Venkata Siva Rajaprasad

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Construction industry has been recognized as a hazardous industry in many countries due to distinct nature of execution of works.The accident rate in construction sector is high all over the world due to dynamic nature of work activities. Occurrence of accidents and its severity in construction industry is several times higher than the manufacturing industries. The study was limited to a major construction organization in India to examine the trends in construction accidents for the period 2008-2014. In India, safety performance is gauged basing on safety indices; frequency, severity and incidence rates. It is not practicable to take decisions or to implement safety strategies on the basis of indices. The data used for this study was collected from a leading construction organization involved in execution of major construction activities all over India and abroad. The multiple regression method was adopted to model the pattern of safety indices wise .The pattern showed that significant relationships exist between the three safety indices and the related independent variables.

Predicting the effectiveness of road safety campaigns through alternative research designs.

Science.gov (United States)

Adamos, Giannis; Nathanail, Eftihia

2016-12-01

A large number of road safety communication campaigns have been designed and implemented in the recent years; however their explicit impact on driving behavior and road accident rates has been estimated in a rather low proportion. Based on the findings of the evaluation of three road safety communication campaigns addressing the issues of drinking and driving, seat belt usage, and driving fatigue, this paper applies different types of research designs (i.e., experimental, quasi-experimental, and non-experimental designs), when estimating the effectiveness of road safety campaigns, implements a cross-design assessment, and conducts a cross-campaign evaluation. An integrated evaluation plan was developed, taking into account the structure of evaluation questions, the definition of measurable variables, the separation of the target audience into intervention (exposed to the campaign) and control (not exposed to the campaign) groups, the selection of alternative research designs, and the appropriate data collection methods and techniques. Evaluating the implementation of different research designs in estimating the effectiveness of road safety campaigns, results showed that the separate pre-post samples design demonstrated better predictability than other designs, especially in data obtained from the intervention group after the realization of the campaign. The more constructs that were added to the independent variables, the higher the values of the predictability were. The construct that most affects behavior is intention, whereas the rest of the constructs have a lower impact on behavior. This is particularly significant in the Health Belief Model (HBM). On the other hand, behavioral beliefs, normative beliefs, and descriptive norms, are significant parameters for predicting intention according to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). The theoretical and applied implications of alternative research designs and their applicability in the evaluation of road safety

State-space based analysis and forecasting of macroscopic road safety trends in Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

In this paper, macroscopic road safety trends in Greece are analyzed using state-space models and data for 52 years (1960-2011). Seemingly unrelated time series equations (SUTSE) models are developed first, followed by richer latent risk time-series (LRT) models. As reliable estimates of vehicle-kilometers are not available for Greece, the number of vehicles in circulation is used as a proxy to the exposure. Alternative considered models are presented and discussed, including diagnostics for the assessment of their model quality and recommendations for further enrichment of this model. Important interventions were incorporated in the models developed (1986 financial crisis, 1991 old-car exchange scheme, 1996 new road fatality definition) and found statistically significant. Furthermore, the forecasting results using data up to 2008 were compared with final actual data (2009-2011) indicating that the models perform properly, even in unusual situations, like the current strong financial crisis in Greece. Forecasting results up to 2020 are also presented and compared with the forecasts of a model that explicitly considers the currently on-going recession. Modeling the recession, and assuming that it will end by 2013, results in more reasonable estimates of risk and vehicle-kilometers for the 2020 horizon. This research demonstrates the benefits of using advanced state-space modeling techniques for modeling macroscopic road safety trends, such as allowing the explicit modeling of interventions. The challenges associated with the application of such state-of-the-art models for macroscopic phenomena, such as traffic fatalities in a region or country, are also highlighted. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that it is possible to apply such complex models using the relatively short time-series that are available in macroscopic road safety analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

Science.gov (United States)

Boonjing, Veera; Intakosum, Sarun

2016-01-01

This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) for prediction of Thailand's SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid's prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span. PMID:27974883

Artificial Neural Network and Genetic Algorithm Hybrid Intelligence for Predicting Thai Stock Price Index Trend

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Montri Inthachot

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study investigated the use of Artificial Neural Network (ANN and Genetic Algorithm (GA for prediction of Thailand’s SET50 index trend. ANN is a widely accepted machine learning method that uses past data to predict future trend, while GA is an algorithm that can find better subsets of input variables for importing into ANN, hence enabling more accurate prediction by its efficient feature selection. The imported data were chosen technical indicators highly regarded by stock analysts, each represented by 4 input variables that were based on past time spans of 4 different lengths: 3-, 5-, 10-, and 15-day spans before the day of prediction. This import undertaking generated a big set of diverse input variables with an exponentially higher number of possible subsets that GA culled down to a manageable number of more effective ones. SET50 index data of the past 6 years, from 2009 to 2014, were used to evaluate this hybrid intelligence prediction accuracy, and the hybrid’s prediction results were found to be more accurate than those made by a method using only one input variable for one fixed length of past time span.

Current status and new trends in the methodology of safety assessment for near surface disposal facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilie, Petre; Didita, Liana; Danchiv, Alexandru

2008-01-01

The main goal of this paper is to present the status of the safety assessment methodology at the end of IAEA CRP 'Application of Safety Assessment Methodology for Near-Surface Radioactive Waste Disposal Facilities (ASAM)', and the new trends outlined at the launch of the follow-up project 'Practical Implementation of Safety Assessment Methodologies in a Context of Safety Case of Near-Surface Facilities (PRISM)'. Over the duration of the ASAM project, the ISAM methodology was confirmed as providing a good framework for conducting safety assessment calculations. In contrast, ASAM project identified the limitations of the ISAM methodology as currently formulated. The major limitations are situated in the area of the use of safety assessment for informing practical decisions about alternative waste and risk management strategies for real disposal sites. As a result of the limitation of the ISAM methodology, the PRISM project is established as an extension of the ISAM and ASAM projects. Based on the outcomes of the ASAM project, the main objective of the PRISM project are: 1 - to develop an overview of what constitutes an adequate safety case and safety assessment with a view to supporting decision making processes; 2 - to provide practical illustrations of how the safety assessment methodology could be used for addressing some specific issues arising from the ASAM project and national cases; 3 - to support harmonization with the IAEA's international safety standards. (authors)

Trends in Education.

Science.gov (United States)

School Planning & Management, 2002

2002-01-01

Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

Recent Trends In The Methods Of Safety Assessment Of Rad Waste Treatment And Disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoud, N.S.

2012-01-01

Radioactive waste management system involves a huge variety of processes and activities. This includes; collection and segregation, pretreatment, treatment, conditioning, storage and finally disposal. To assure the safety of the different facility of each step in the waste management system, the operator should prepare a safety analysis report to be assessed by the national regulatory body. The content of the safety analysis report must include all data about the site, facility design, operational phase, waste materials, and safety assessment methodologies. Safety assessment methodologies are iterative processes involving site-specific, prospective modeling evaluations of the pre-operational, operational, and post-closure time in case of disposal facilities. The safety assessment focuses primarily on a decision about compliance with performance objectives, rather than the much more difficult problem of predicting actual radiological impacts on the public at far future times. The recent organization processes of the safety assessment are improved by the ISAM working group from IAEA for waste disposal site. These safety assessment methodologies have been modified within SADRWMS IAEA project for the establishment of safety methodologies for the pre-disposal facilities (treatment and storage facilities) and the disposal site.

Validation of Monte Carlo predictions of LWR-PROTEUS safety parameters using an improved whole-reactor model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Plaschy, M. [Laboratory for Reactor Physics and Systems Behaviour, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen, PSI (Switzerland)], E-mail: michael.plaschy@eos.ch; Murphy, M.; Jatuff, F.; Perret, G.; Seiler, R. [Laboratory for Reactor Physics and Systems Behaviour, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen, PSI (Switzerland); Chawla, R. [Laboratory for Reactor Physics and Systems Behaviour, Paul Scherrer Institute, CH-5232 Villigen, PSI (Switzerland); Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), CH-1015 Lausanne, EPFL (Switzerland)

2009-10-15

The recent experimental programme conducted in the PROTEUS research reactor at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) has concerned detailed investigations of advanced light water reactor (LWR) fuels. More than fifteen different configurations of the multi-zone critical facility have been studied, each of them requiring accurate estimation of operational safety parameters, in particular the critical driver loadings, shutdown rod worths and the effective delayed neutron fraction {beta}{sub eff}. The current paper presents a full-scale 3D Monte Carlo model for the facility, set up using the MCNPX code, which has been employed for calculation of the operational characteristics for seven different LWR-PROTEUS configurations. Thereby, a variety of nuclear data libraries (viz. ENDF/B6v2, ENDF/B6v8, JEF2.2, JEFF3.0, JEFF3.1, JENDL3.2, and JENDL3.3) have been used, and predictions of k{sub eff} and shutdown rod worths compared with experimental values. Even though certain library-specific trends have been observed, the k{sub eff} predictions are generally very satisfactory, viz. with discrepancies of <0.5% between calculation (C) and experiment (E). The results also confirm the consistent determination of reactivity variations, the C/E values for the shutdown (safety) rod worths being always within 5% of unity. In addition, the MCNP modelling of the multi-zone reactor has yielded interesting results for the delayed neutron fraction ({beta}{sub eff}) in the different configurations, a breakdown being made possible in each case in terms of delayed neutron group, fissioning nuclide, and reactor region.

Occupational safety and health in construction: a review of applications and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Suárez Sánchez, Fabián Alberto; Carvajal Peláez, Gloria Isabel; Catalá Alís, Joaquín

2017-06-08

Due to the high number of accidents that occur in construction and the consequences this has for workers, organizations, society and countries, occupational safety and health (OSH) has become a very important issue for stakeholders to take care of the human resource. For this reason, and in order to know how OSH research in the construction sector has evolved over time, this article-in which articles published in English were studied-presents an analysis of research conducted from 1930 to 2016. The classification of documents was carried out following the Occupational Safety and Health Cycle which is composed of five steps: regulation, education and training, risk assessment, risk prevention, and accident analysis. With the help of tree diagrams we show that evolution takes place. In addition, risk assessment, risk prevention, and accident analysis were the research topics with the highest number of papers. The main objective of the study was to contribute to knowledge of the subject, showing trends through an exploratory study that may serve as a starting point for further research.

Bias of genetic trend of genomic predictions based on both real dairy cattle and simulated data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ma, Peipei; Lund, Mogens Sandø; Nielsen, Ulrik Sander

This study investigated the phenomenon of bias in the trend of genomic predictions and attempted to find the reason and solution for this bias. The data used in this study include Danish Jersey data and simulation data. In Jersey data, the bias was reduced when cows were included in the reference...... population. In simulated data, there was no bias when the test animals were unselected cows. When the G matrix was derived from genotypes of causal genes, the bias was reduced. The results suggest that the main reasons for causing the bias of the prediction trends are the selection of bulls and bull dams...

Trends in youth internet victimization: findings from three youth internet safety surveys 2000-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Lisa M; Mitchell, Kimberly J; Finkelhor, David

2012-02-01

The purpose of this research was to explore the trends in youth reports of unwanted online sexual solicitation, harassment, and exposure to pornography over time. The study was based on three separate cross-sectional national telephone surveys of approximately 1,500 youth Internet users, aged 10 through 17 years. Data were collected in 2000, 2005, and 2010. Nine percent of youth reported an unwanted sexual solicitation in 2010. This continued the decline in unwanted sexual solicitations that occurred between 2000 (19%) and 2005 (13%), resulting in a total 50% decrease between 2000 and 2010. Twenty-three percent of youth reported an unwanted exposure to pornography, a decline from 34% in 2005, following an increase between 2000 and 2005 (25% to 34%). However, marking the only trend to show an increase over the past 5 years, 11% of youth reported an online harassment experience, which was an increase from 9% in 2005, and 6% in 2000. Some differences in these trends were noted for subgroups of youth across age, gender, and race. The trends in unwanted experiences online over the past decade identified by three Youth Internet Safety Surveys may contradict impressions that the general population, professionals, and the media have about what is happening. Trends provide evidence for some optimism that protective adaptations to the online environment have been successful; however, online harassment appears to be increasing for youth, particularly girls, and may require additional mobilization. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Status and trends in IAEA safety standards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lipar, M.

2004-01-01

While safety is a national responsibility, international standards and approaches to safety promote consistency and facilitate international technical co-operation and trade, and help to provide assurance that nuclear and radiation related technologies are used safely. The standards also provide support for States in meeting their international obligations. One general international obligation is that a State must not pursue activities that cause damage in another State. More specific obligations on Contracting States are set out in international safety related conventions. The internationally agreed IAEA safety standards provide the basis for States to demonstrate that they are meeting these obligations. These standards are founded in the IAEA's Statute, which authorizes the Agency to establish standards of safety for nuclear and radiation related facilities and activities and to provide for their application. The safety standards reflect an international consensus on what constitutes a high level of safety for protecting people and the environment. (orig.) [de

Trends in Health Information Technology Safety: From Technology-Induced Errors to Current Approaches for Ensuring Technology Safety

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Objectives Health information technology (HIT) research findings suggested that new healthcare technologies could reduce some types of medical errors while at the same time introducing classes of medical errors (i.e., technology-induced errors). Technology-induced errors have their origins in HIT, and/or HIT contribute to their occurrence. The objective of this paper is to review current trends in the published literature on HIT safety. Methods A review and synthesis of the medical and life sciences literature focusing on the area of technology-induced error was conducted. Results There were four main trends in the literature on technology-induced error. The following areas were addressed in the literature: definitions of technology-induced errors; models, frameworks and evidence for understanding how technology-induced errors occur; a discussion of monitoring; and methods for preventing and learning about technology-induced errors. Conclusions The literature focusing on technology-induced errors continues to grow. Research has focused on the defining what an error is, models and frameworks used to understand these new types of errors, monitoring of such errors and methods that can be used to prevent these errors. More research will be needed to better understand and mitigate these types of errors. PMID:23882411

The structure and emerging trends of construction safety management research: a bibliometric review.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Huakang; Zhang, Shoujian; Su, Yikun

2018-03-29

Recently, construction safety management (CSM) practices and systems have become important topics for stakeholders to take care of human resources. However, few studies have attempted to map the global research on CSM. A comprehensive bibliometric review was conducted in this study based on multiple methods. In total, 1172 CSM-related papers from the Web of Science Core Collection database were examined. The analyses focused on publication year, country-institute, publication source, author and research topics. The results indicated that the USA, China, Australia and the UK took leading positions in CSM research. Two branches of journals were identified, namely the branch of engineering science and that of safety science and social science. Additionally, seven themes together with 28 specific topics were detected to allow researchers to track the main structure and temporal evolution of CSM research. Finally, the main research trends and potential research directions were discussed to guide the future research.

Development and evaluation of multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends in multiple domains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Attema, T.; Maanen, P.P. van; Meeuwissen, E.

2015-01-01

This paper concerns multi-agent models predicting Twitter trends. We use a step-wise approach to develop a novel agent-based model with the following properties: (1) it uses individual behavior parameters for a set of Twitter users and (2) it uses a retweet graph to model the underlying social

Prediction of Clinically Relevant Safety Signals of Nephrotoxicity through Plasma Metabolite Profiling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. B. Mattes

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Addressing safety concerns such as drug-induced kidney injury (DIKI early in the drug pharmaceutical development process ensures both patient safety and efficient clinical development. We describe a unique adjunct to standard safety assessment wherein the metabolite profile of treated animals is compared with the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database in order to predict the potential for a wide variety of adverse events, including DIKI. To examine this approach, a study of five compounds (phenytoin, cyclosporin A, doxorubicin, captopril, and lisinopril was initiated by the Technology Evaluation Consortium under the auspices of the Drug Safety Executive Council (DSEC. The metabolite profiles for rats treated with these compounds matched established reference patterns in the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database indicative of each compound’s well-described clinical toxicities. For example, the DIKI associated with cyclosporine A and doxorubicin was correctly predicted by metabolite profiling, while no evidence for DIKI was found for phenytoin, consistent with its clinical picture. In some cases the clinical toxicity (hepatotoxicity, not generally seen in animal studies, was detected with MetaMap Tox. Thus metabolite profiling coupled with the MetaMap Tox metabolomics database offers a unique and powerful approach for augmenting safety assessment and avoiding clinical adverse events such as DIKI.

Safety-critical Java on a time-predictable processor

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Korsholm, Stephan E.; Schoeberl, Martin; Puffitsch, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

For real-time systems the whole execution stack needs to be time-predictable and analyzable for the worst-case execution time (WCET). This paper presents a time-predictable platform for safety-critical Java. The platform consists of (1) the Patmos processor, which is a time-predictable processor......; (2) a C compiler for Patmos with support for WCET analysis; (3) the HVM, which is a Java-to-C compiler; (4) the HVM-SCJ implementation which supports SCJ Level 0, 1, and 2 (for both single and multicore platforms); and (5) a WCET analysis tool. We show that real-time Java programs translated to C...... and compiled to a Patmos binary can be analyzed by the AbsInt aiT WCET analysis tool. To the best of our knowledge the presented system is the second WCET analyzable real-time Java system; and the first one on top of a RISC processor....

Advances in Predictive Toxicology for Discovery Safety through High Content Screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Persson, Mikael; Hornberg, Jorrit J

2016-12-19

High content screening enables parallel acquisition of multiple molecular and cellular readouts. In particular the predictive toxicology field has progressed from the advances in high content screening, as more refined end points that report on cellular health can be studied in combination, at the single cell level, and in relatively high throughput. Here, we discuss how high content screening has become an essential tool for Discovery Safety, the discipline that integrates safety and toxicology in the drug discovery process to identify and mitigate safety concerns with the aim to design drug candidates with a superior safety profile. In addition to customized mechanistic assays to evaluate target safety, routine screening assays can be applied to identify risk factors for frequently occurring organ toxicities. We discuss the current state of high content screening assays for hepatotoxicity, cardiotoxicity, neurotoxicity, nephrotoxicity, and genotoxicity, including recent developments and current advances.

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Development of a time-trend model for analyzing and predicting case-pattern of Lassa fever epidemics in Liberia, 2013-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Olugasa, Babasola O; Odigie, Eugene A; Lawani, Mike; Ojo, Johnson F

2015-01-01

The objective was to develop a case-pattern model for Lassa fever (LF) among humans and derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of LF cases in Liberia in view of the prevailing under-reporting and public health challenge posed by the disease in the country. A retrospective 5 years data of LF distribution countrywide among humans were used to train a time-trend model of the disease in Liberia. A time-trend quadratic model was selected due to its goodness-of-fit (R2 = 0.89, and P Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. We proposed a computationally feasible two-stage space-time permutation approach to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on LF in Liberia.

Prediction based active ramp metering control strategy with mobility and safety assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Fang, Jie; Tu, Lili

2018-04-01

Ramp metering is one of the most direct and efficient motorway traffic flow management measures so as to improve traffic conditions. However, owing to short of traffic conditions prediction, in earlier studies, the impact on traffic flow dynamics of the applied RM control was not quantitatively evaluated. In this study, a RM control algorithm adopting Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to predict and assess future traffic conditions, which taking both the current traffic conditions and the RM-controlled future traffic states into consideration, was presented. The designed RM control algorithm targets at optimizing the network mobility and safety performance. The designed algorithm is evaluated in a field-data-based simulation. Through comparing the presented algorithm controlled scenario with the uncontrolled scenario, it was proved that the proposed RM control algorithm can effectively relieve the congestion of traffic network with no significant compromises in safety aspect.

RepoTREND. The program package for the integrated long term safety analysis of final repository systems. Version 4.5 (State March 2016); RepoTREND. Das Programmpaket zur integrierten Langzeitsicherheitsanalyse von Endlagersystemen. Version 4.5 (Stand Maerz 2016)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reiche, Tatiana

2016-04-15

The long-term safety analysis is the analysis of final repository behavior after closure includes the spreading of pollutants into the biosphere (mobilization and release of pollutants into the near field, radionuclide migration through the geosphere, radiation exposure in the biosphere) and the radiological consequences. The report describes the program package RepoTREND, the respective modules (near field, GeoTREND, BioTREND and probabilistic analyses), sequencing and postprocessing and the quality management.

Intelligent robot trends and predictions for the new millennium

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Ernest L.; Mundhenk, Terrell N.

1999-08-01

An intelligent robot is a remarkably useful combination of a manipulator, sensors and controls. The current use of these machines in outer space, medicine, hazardous materials, defense applications and industry is being pursued with vigor but little funding. In factory automation such robotics machines can improve productivity, increase product quality and improve competitiveness. The computer and the robot have both been developed during recent times. The intelligent robot combines both technologies and requires a thorough understanding and knowledge of mechatronics. In honor of the new millennium, this paper will present a discussion of futuristic trends and predictions. However, in keeping with technical tradition, a new technique for 'Follow the Leader' will also be presented in the hope of it becoming a new, useful and non-obvious technique.

A nuclear safety in 21 century

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmachkin, V.S.

2003-01-01

In the paper some topics of nuclear safety are discussed, namely current situation in the world energetics and a potential of nuclear energy for sustainable development of the world, Nuclear Safety Standards and modern trends in Safety Regulation, Radiation Protection Standards are rather conservative, are based on disputable approaches and have to be more pragmatic, necessity to overcome the syndromes of awful consequences of nuclear accidents at nuclear plants, residual risks of nuclear accidents have to be covered by clear compulsory insurance actions. It is shown, that now it is worthwhile to consider efficiency of existing methods of nuclear safety regulation. It is possible, that an idea of guaranteed safety [1] could become a new approach to nuclear safety. It is based on practically total elimination of severe accidents and insurance of residual risks of nuclear accidents. The realization of such idea necessitates the consideration of all spectrum of initiating events, human errors and man-made actions, more realistically predicting consequences of accidents and the probable economical detriments. It will be a benefit for gaining public support to nuclear power. (author)

Artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy inference systems as virtual sensors for hydrogen safety prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karri, Vishy; Ho, Tien [School of Engineering, University of Tasmania, GPO Box 252-65, Hobart, Tasmania 7001 (Australia); Madsen, Ole [Department of Production, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 16, DK-9220 Aalborg (Denmark)

2008-06-15

Hydrogen is increasingly investigated as an alternative fuel to petroleum products in running internal combustion engines and as powering remote area power systems using generators. The safety issues related to hydrogen gas are further exasperated by expensive instrumentation required to measure the percentage of explosive limits, flow rates and production pressure. This paper investigates the use of model based virtual sensors (rather than expensive physical sensors) in connection with hydrogen production with a Hogen 20 electrolyzer system. The virtual sensors are used to predict relevant hydrogen safety parameters, such as the percentage of lower explosive limit, hydrogen pressure and hydrogen flow rate as a function of different input conditions of power supplied (voltage and current), the feed of de-ionized water and Hogen 20 electrolyzer system parameters. The virtual sensors are developed by means of the application of various Artificial Intelligent techniques. To train and appraise the neural network models as virtual sensors, the Hogen 20 electrolyzer is instrumented with necessary sensors to gather experimental data which together with MATLAB neural networks toolbox and tailor made adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) were used as predictive tools to estimate hydrogen safety parameters. It was shown that using the neural networks hydrogen safety parameters were predicted to less than 3% of percentage average root mean square error. The most accurate prediction was achieved by using ANFIS. (author)

Overview of AEOD's program for trending reactor operational events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranowsky, P.W.; O'Reilly, P.D.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Houghton, J.R.

1994-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the trending program being performed by AEOD. The major elements of the program include: (1) system and component reliability trending and analysis, (2) special data collection and analysis (e.g., IPE and PRA component failure data, common cause failure event data), (3) risk assessment of safety issues based on actual operating experience, (4) Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program, and (5) trending US industry risk. AEOD plans to maintain up-to-date safety data trends for selected high risk or high regulatory profile components, systems, accident initiators, accident sequences, and regulatory issues. AEOD will also make greater use of PRA insights and perform limited probabilistic safety assessments to evaluate the safety significance of qualitative results. Examples of a system study and an issue evaluation are presented, as well as a summary of the common cause failure event database

Value of preapproval safety data in predicting postapproval hepatic safety and assessing the legitimacy of class warning.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yeong-Liang; Wu, Ya-Chi; Gau, Churn-Shiouh; Lin, Min-Shung

2012-02-01

The objective of this study was to systematically evaluate whether preapproval safety data for nonhepatotoxic drugs and hepatotoxic drugs can be compared to improve preapproval prediction of postapproval hepatic safety and to assess the legitimacy of applying class warnings. Drugs within a therapeutic class that included at least one drug that had been withdrawn from the market because of liver toxicity or had a warning of potential liver toxicity issued by major regulatory agencies, and at least one drug free from such regulatory action, were identified and divided into two groups: drugs with and drugs without regulatory action. Preapproval clinical data [including the elevation rates of alanine aminotransferse (ALT) and withdrawal due to liver toxicity, the number of patients with combined elevation of ALT and bilirubin, and liver failure] and nonclinical data (including chemical structures, metabolic pathways, and other significant findings in animal studies) were compared between the two groups. Six drug classes were assessed in this study: thiazolidinediones, cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors, fluoroquinolones, catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) inhibitors, leukotriene receptor inhibitors, and endothelin receptor antagonists. In two classes (COMT inhibitors and endothelin receptor antagonists), drugs with regulatory action had significantly higher rates of ALT elevation of more than threefold and greater numbers of patients with combined elevation of ALT and bilirubin than drugs without regulatory action. Drugs with regulatory action also had chemical structures or metabolic pathways associated with the toxicity. The legitimacy of class warnings was refuted in all six classes of drugs. Preapproval safety data may help predict postapproval hepatic safety and can be used to assess the legitimacy of applying class warnings.

A prediction model for the radiation safety management behavior of medical cyclotrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Ji Hye; Han, Eun Ok; Kim, Ssang Tae

2008-01-01

This study attempted to provide reference materials for improving the behavior level in radiation safety managements by drawing a prediction model that affects the radiation safety management behavior because the radiation safety management of medical Cyclotrons, which can be used to produce radioisotopes, is an important factor that protects radiation caused diseases not only for radiological operators but average users. In addition, this study obtained follows results through the investigation applied from January 2 to January 30, 2008 for the radiation safety managers employed in 24 authorized organizations, which have already installed Cyclotrons, through applying a specific form of questionnaire in which the validity was guaranteed by reference study, site investigation, and focus discussion by related experts. The radiation safety management were configured as seven steps: step 1 is a production preparation step, step 2 is an RI production step, step 3 is a synthesis step, step 4 is a distribution step, step 5 is a quality control step, step 6 is a carriage container packing step, and step 7 is a transportation step. It was recognized that the distribution step was the most exposed as 15 subjects (62.5%), the items of 'the sanction and permission related works' and 'the guarantee of installation facilities and production equipment' were the most difficult as 9 subjects (37.5%), and in the trouble steps in such exposure, the item of 'the synthesis and distribution' steps were 4 times, respectively (30.8%). In the score of the behavior level in radiation safety managements, the minimum and maximum scores were 2.42 and 4.00, respectively, and the average score was 3.46 ± 0.47 out of 4. Prosperity and well-being programs in the behavior and job in radiation safety managements (r=0.529) represented a significant correlation statistically. In the drawing of a prediction model based on the factors that affected the behavior in radiation safety managements, general

Tools and techniques for ageing predictions in nuclear reactors through condition monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verma, R.M.P.

1994-01-01

To operate the nuclear reactors beyond their design predicted life is gaining importance because of huge replacement and decommissioning costs. But experience shows that nuclear plant safety and reliability may decline in the later years of plant life due to ageing degradation. Ageing of nuclear plant components, structures and systems, if unmitigated reduces their safety margins provided in the design and thus increases risks to public health and safety. These safety margins must be monitored throughout plant service life including any extended life. Condition monitoring of nuclear reactor components/equipment and systems can be done to study the effect of ageing, status of safety margins and effect of corrective and mitigating actions taken. The tools and techniques of condition monitoring are also important in failure trending, predictive maintenance, evaluation of scheduled maintenance, in mitigation of ageing, life extension and reliability studies. (author). 1 fig., 1 annexure

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

2014 New Trends in Fatigue and Fracture Conference

CERN Document Server

Milovic, Ljubica

2017-01-01

This book is a compilation of selected papers from the 2014 New Trends in Fatigue and Fracture (NT2F14) Conference, which was held in Belgrade, Serbia. This prestigious conference brought together delegates from around the globe to discuss how to characterize, predict and analyze the fatigue and fracture of engineering materials, components, and structures using theoretical, experimental, numerical and practical approaches. It highlights some important new trends in fracture mechanics presented at the conference, such as: • two-parameter fracture mechanics, arising from the coupling of fracture toughness and stress constraints • high-performance steel for gas and oil transportation and production (pressure vessels and boilers) • safety and reliability of welded joints This book includes 12 contributions from well-known international scientists and a special tribute dedicated to the scientific contributions of Stojan Sedmark, who passed away in 2014.

Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025.

Science.gov (United States)

Dikshit, Rajesh P; Yeole, B B; Nagrani, Rajini; Dhillon, P; Badwe, R; Bray, Freddie

2012-08-01

Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976-2005 and stratified them according to younger (25-49) and older age group (50-74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2-1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001-2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021-2025. The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Political economy and social psychology of nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choe, Gwang Sik

2009-03-01

The contents of this book are consideration on independence of nuclear safety regulations, analysis of trend in internal and external on effectualness of nuclear safety regulations, political psychology of a hard whistle, how to deal with trust and distrust on regulation institute, international trend and domestic trend of nuclear safe culture, policy for building of trust of people on nuclear safety and regulations, measurement and conception of nuclear safety and for who imposes legal controls?

Political economy and social psychology of nuclear safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choe, Gwang Sik

2009-03-15

The contents of this book are consideration on independence of nuclear safety regulations, analysis of trend in internal and external on effectualness of nuclear safety regulations, political psychology of a hard whistle, how to deal with trust and distrust on regulation institute, international trend and domestic trend of nuclear safe culture, policy for building of trust of people on nuclear safety and regulations, measurement and conception of nuclear safety and for who imposes legal controls?.

Predicting perceived safety to drive the morning after drinking: The importance of hangover symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Cameron, Elaine; French, David P

2016-07-01

People driving the day after drinking are at risk of impaired performance and accidents due to continued intoxication or the effects of alcohol hangover. Drivers are poor at estimating their own blood alcohol concentration, and some drive despite believing they are over the legal limit. It is therefore important to identify other factors influencing perceived ability to drive 'the morning after'. This study tested how accurately participants estimated their legal driving status, and the contribution of beliefs and hangover symptoms to the prediction of perceived driving safety. This cross-sectional study involved 193 students completing a questionnaire and alcohol breath test the morning after heavy alcohol consumption. Indicators of subjective intoxication, severity of hangover symptoms, estimated legal status and perceived safety to drive were measured. A hierarchical linear regression analysis was conducted. No participants thought they were under the English legal limit when they were not, and 47% thought they were over the limit when they were in fact legally permissible to drive. However, 20% of those believing they were over the limit nevertheless rated themselves as safe to drive. Hangover symptoms added 17% variance to the prediction of perceived safety to drive, over and above objective and subjective measures of intoxication. Perceived severity of hangover symptoms influence beliefs about driving ability: When judging safety to drive, people experiencing less severe symptoms believe they are less impaired. If this finding is robust, health promotion campaigns should aim to correct this misapprehension. [Cameron E, French D. Predicting perceived safety to drive the morning after drinking: The importance of hangover symptoms. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:442-446]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

Development Trends in Nuclear Technology and Related Safety Aspects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuczera, B.; Juhn, P.E.; Fukuda, K.

2002-01-01

The IAEA Safety Standards Series include, in a hierarchical manner, the categories of Safety Fundamentals, Safety Requirements and Safety Guides, which define the elements necessary to ensure the safety of nuclear installations. In the same way as nuclear technology and scientific knowledge advance continuously, also safety requirements may change with these advances. Therefore, in the framework of the International Project on Innovative Nuclear Reactors and Fuel Cycles (INPRO) one important aspect among others refers to user requirements on the safety of innovative nuclear installations, which may come into operation within the next fifty years. In this respect, the major objectives of the INPRO sub-task 'User Requirements and Nuclear Energy Development Criteria in the Area of Safety' have been: a. to overview existing national and international requirements in the safety area, b. to define high level user requirements in the area of safety of innovative nuclear technologies, c. to compile and to analyze existing innovative reactor and fuel cycle technology enhancement concepts and approaches intended to achieve a high degree of safety, and d. to identify the general areas of safety R and D needs for the establishment of these technologies. During the discussions it became evident that the application of the defence in depth strategy will continue to be the overriding approach for achieving the general safety objective in nuclear power plants and fuel cycle facilities, where the emphasis will be shifted from mitigation of accident consequences more towards prevention of accidents. In this context, four high level user requirements have been formulated for the safety of innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles. On this basis safety strategies for innovative reactor designs are highlighted in each of the five levels of defence in depth and specific requirements are discussed for the individual components of the fuel cycle. (authors)

Indicators for traffic safety assessment and prediction and their application in micro-simulation modelling : a study of urban and suburban intersections

OpenAIRE

Archer, Jeffery

2005-01-01

In order to achieve sustainable long-term transport infrastructure development, there is a growing need for fast, reliable and effective methods to evaluate and predict the impact of traffic safety measures. Recognising this need, and the need for an active traffic safety approach, this thesis focuses on traffic safety assessment and prediction based on the use of safety indicators that measure the spatial and/or temporal proximity of safety critical events. The main advantage of such measure...

A prediction model for the radiation safety management behavior of medical cyclotrons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jung, Ji Hye; Han, Eun Ok [Daegu Health College, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Ssang Tae [CareCamp Inc., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2008-06-15

This study attempted to provide reference materials for improving the behavior level in radiation safety managements by drawing a prediction model that affects the radiation safety management behavior because the radiation safety management of medical Cyclotrons, which can be used to produce radioisotopes, is an important factor that protects radiation caused diseases not only for radiological operators but average users. In addition, this study obtained follows results through the investigation applied from January 2 to January 30, 2008 for the radiation safety managers employed in 24 authorized organizations, which have already installed Cyclotrons, through applying a specific form of questionnaire in which the validity was guaranteed by reference study, site investigation, and focus discussion by related experts. The radiation safety management were configured as seven steps: step 1 is a production preparation step, step 2 is an RI production step, step 3 is a synthesis step, step 4 is a distribution step, step 5 is a quality control step, step 6 is a carriage container packing step, and step 7 is a transportation step. It was recognized that the distribution step was the most exposed as 15 subjects (62.5%), the items of 'the sanction and permission related works' and 'the guarantee of installation facilities and production equipment' were the most difficult as 9 subjects (37.5%), and in the trouble steps in such exposure, the item of 'the synthesis and distribution' steps were 4 times, respectively (30.8%). In the score of the behavior level in radiation safety managements, the minimum and maximum scores were 2.42 and 4.00, respectively, and the average score was 3.46 {+-} 0.47 out of 4. Prosperity and well-being programs in the behavior and job in radiation safety managements (r=0.529) represented a significant correlation statistically. In the drawing of a prediction model based on the factors that affected the behavior in

Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

2018-02-01

Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Nuclear safety: Impressive and worrisome trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meserve, R.A.

2006-01-01

The safety record for commercial nuclear power has, in the main, been impressive in recent years. Nonetheless, noteworthy events continue to occur around the globe, including events at reactors operating in countries with extensive operational experience and strong regulatory capabilities. None of the recent events has resulted in a substantial off-site release of radioactivity. But these events reinforce how wrong it would be to assume that the safety challenge has been 'solved' and that attention can be focused on other matters. There are other worrisome problems that include: aging nuclear power plants, decay in the nuclear infrastructure and expanding interest in nuclear power among countries with out prior experience of operating nuclear power plants

Comparison of in-plant performance test data with analytic prediction of reactor safety system injection transient (U)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, B.N.; Neill, C.H. Jr.

1993-01-01

This paper compares the performance test data from injection transients for both of the subsystems of the Supplementary Safety System of the Savannah River Site production reactor with analytical predictions from an in-house thermal hydraulic computer code. The code was initially developed for design validation of the new Supplementary Safety System subsystem, but is shown to be equally capable of predicting the performance of the Supplementary Safety System existing subsystem even though the two subsystem transient injections have marked differences. The code itself was discussed and its validation using prototypic tests with simulated fluids was reported in an earlier paper (Roy and Nomm 1991)

Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, Eric C. J.; Lago, Véronique; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Ling, Scott D.; Mundy, Craig N.

2018-02-01

Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures - marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania's east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania's eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993-2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data.

Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

2016-10-01

As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

A New approach to the spread of safety culture. The trend of studies and practice in the foreign nuclear power industry, and future approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Naoko; Takano, Kenichi

2001-01-01

The purpose of this study is to clarify organizational factors influencing on safety and to suggest future approach for the spread of safety culture. As the results of investigations on safety companies, characteristics of organizational policies, those of safety activities' purposes, and organizational factors which encourage workers to take a positive attitude toward the safety activities were clarified. Based on the clarified characteristics and the trend of studies and practice in the foreign nuclear power industry, it was suggested that it would be necessary for the spread of safety culture in an organization to learn lessons for the prevention of accidents' recurring and to maintain safety behavior and attitude for the prevention of accidents' occurring. For support of this, it is desired to develop the assessment system of organizational safety and the planning system of safety management. The new approach was also suggested with the process model for influence of organizational factors which include workers' psychological aspects. (author)

Selection of detailed items for periodic safety review on PWR radwaste management system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sung, K. B.; Ahn, Y. S.; Park, Y. S.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, J. T. [Korea Hydric and Nuclear Power Company, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2003-10-01

Selection of detailed-items for Periodic Safety Review on PWR radwaste management system, the main component could be faithfully clarified according to the purpose of establishment on each system and basic purpose. It is proper to select detailed-items those of radioactivities in the reactor coolant activity levels and the released volume of liquid and gaseous radioactive material on safety performance. It's also proper to select solid radwaste production quantities as detailed-item that it would be predict the next ten years trends after PSR.

Research of combination model for prediction of the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yin-ping CHEN

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Objective　To establish a combination model of autoregressive integrated moving average model and the grey dynamics (ARIMA-GM of hepatitis B incidence rate (1/100 000 to predict the trend of outbreak of hepatitis B, as to provide a scientific basis for the early discovery of the infectious diseases for the performance of countermeasures of controlling its spread. Methods　The monthly incidence of hepatitis B in Qian'an city, Hebei province, was collected from Jan 2004 to Dec 2012, and a model (ARIMA was reproduced with SPSS software. The GM (1,1 model was used to correct the residual sequence with a threshold value, and a combined forecasting model was reproduced. This combination model was used to predict the monthly incidence rate in this city in 2013. Results　The model ARIMA(0,1,1(0,1,112 was established successfully and the residual sequence was a white noise sequence. Then the GM (1,1 model with a threshold of 3 was used to correct its residuals and obtain its nonlinear feature extraction of information. The forecasting model met required precision standards (C=0.673, P=0.877, the fitting accuracy of which was basically qualified. The results showed that the MAE, MAPE of the ARIMA-GM combined model were smaller than that of a single model, and the combined model could improve the prediction accuracy. Using the combined model to forecast the incidence of hepatitis B during Jan 2013 to Dec 2013, the overall trend was relatively consistent with the condition of previous years. Conclusion　The ARIMA-GM combined model can better fit the incidence rate of hepatitis B with a greater accuracy than the seasonal ARIMA model. The prediction results can provide the reference for the early warning system of HBV. DOI: 10.11855/j.issn.0577-7402.2014.01.12

Recent trends in particle accelerator radiation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohnesorge, W.F.; Butler, H.M.

1974-01-01

The use of particle accelerators in applied and research activities continues to expand, bringing new machines with higher energy and current capabilities which create radiation safety problems not commonly encountered before. An overview is given of these increased ionizing radiation hazards, along with a discussion of some of the new techniques required in evaluating and controlling them. A computer search of the literature provided a relatively comprehensive list of publications describing accelerator radiation safety problems and related subjects

Trends in risk management in nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Inn Seock

1996-01-01

Safety management may be classified into three dimensions: risk management, accident management, and emergency management. This paper addresses the recent trends of safety management in nuclear industry, focussing on risk management and accident management

Ageing management by probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Das, M.; Bhawal, R.N.; Maiti, S.C.

1994-01-01

The process and safety system of a nuclear power plant must achieve the reliability/availability target throughout the plant life or for extended plant life. It is therefore necessary to assess the trend of component or system ageing and to take preventive measures so that ageing effect can be counter balanced. In this paper a mathematical model has been established to predict ageing effect and to find out time dependent inspection or test interval to upgrade the system availability. (author). 5 figs

Conceptual Software Reliability Prediction Models for Nuclear Power Plant Safety Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, G.; Lawrence, D.; Yu, H.

2000-01-01

The objective of this project is to develop a method to predict the potential reliability of software to be used in a digital system instrumentation and control system. The reliability prediction is to make use of existing measures of software reliability such as those described in IEEE Std 982 and 982.2. This prediction must be of sufficient accuracy to provide a value for uncertainty that could be used in a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). For the purposes of the project, reliability was defined to be the probability that the digital system will successfully perform its intended safety function (for the distribution of conditions under which it is expected to respond) upon demand with no unintended functions that might affect system safety. The ultimate objective is to use the identified measures to develop a method for predicting the potential quantitative reliability of a digital system. The reliability prediction models proposed in this report are conceptual in nature. That is, possible prediction techniques are proposed and trial models are built, but in order to become a useful tool for predicting reliability, the models must be tested, modified according to the results, and validated. Using methods outlined by this project, models could be constructed to develop reliability estimates for elements of software systems. This would require careful review and refinement of the models, development of model parameters from actual experience data or expert elicitation, and careful validation. By combining these reliability estimates (generated from the validated models for the constituent parts) in structural software models, the reliability of the software system could then be predicted. Modeling digital system reliability will also require that methods be developed for combining reliability estimates for hardware and software. System structural models must also be developed in order to predict system reliability based upon the reliability

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Mario; Freitas, Raul; Crespi, Antonio L.; Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, Joao Alexandre

2011-01-01

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: → Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. → Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. → Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.→ Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.→ Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com [Herbarium, UTAD Botanical Garden, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com [Herbarium, UTAD Botanical Garden, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Department of Forest and Landscape, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, Joao Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal)

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

Have the Findings from Clinical Risk Prediction and Trials Any Key Messages for Safety Pharmacology?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jem D. Lane

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Anti-arrhythmic drugs are a mainstay in the management of symptoms related to arrhythmias, and are adjuncts in prevention and treatment of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias. However, they also have the potential for pro-arrhythmia and thus the prediction of arrhythmia predisposition and drug response are critical issues. Clinical trials are the latter stages in the safety testing and efficacy process prior to market release, and as such serve as a critical safeguard. In this review, we look at some of the lessons to be learned from approaches to arrhythmia prediction in patients, clinical trials of drugs used in the treatment of arrhythmias, and the implications for the design of pre-clinical safety pharmacology testing.

Propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to incorporate severity probabilities in the highway safety manual crash prediction algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasidharan, Lekshmi; Donnell, Eric T

2014-10-01

Accurate estimation of the expected number of crashes at different severity levels for entities with and without countermeasures plays a vital role in selecting countermeasures in the framework of the safety management process. The current practice is to use the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials' Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms, which combine safety performance functions and crash modification factors, to estimate the effects of safety countermeasures on different highway and street facility types. Many of these crash prediction algorithms are based solely on crash frequency, or assume that severity outcomes are unchanged when planning for, or implementing, safety countermeasures. Failing to account for the uncertainty associated with crash severity outcomes, and assuming crash severity distributions remain unchanged in safety performance evaluations, limits the utility of the Highway Safety Manual crash prediction algorithms in assessing the effect of safety countermeasures on crash severity. This study demonstrates the application of a propensity scores-potential outcomes framework to estimate the probability distribution for the occurrence of different crash severity levels by accounting for the uncertainties associated with them. The probability of fatal and severe injury crash occurrence at lighted and unlighted intersections is estimated in this paper using data from Minnesota. The results show that the expected probability of occurrence of fatal and severe injury crashes at a lighted intersection was 1 in 35 crashes and the estimated risk ratio indicates that the respective probabilities at an unlighted intersection was 1.14 times higher compared to lighted intersections. The results from the potential outcomes-propensity scores framework are compared to results obtained from traditional binary logit models, without application of propensity scores matching. Traditional binary logit analysis suggests that

Certification of safety professionals : Emerging trends of internationalisation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hale, A.R.; Harvey, H.

2012-01-01

Professionalisation of safety began at a national level with the formation of national associations of safety staff working in industry and of government inspectors. It took its first steps towards internation-al harmonisation with attempts in the 1970s in Western Europe to arrive at agreement on

Road Accident Trends in Africa and Europe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, N O

1997-01-01

The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries......The paper decribes trends and suggests prediction models for accident risks in African and European countries...

How the choice of safety performance function affects the identification of important crash prediction variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ketong; Simandl, Jenna K; Porter, Michael D; Graettinger, Andrew J; Smith, Randy K

2016-03-01

Across the nation, researchers and transportation engineers are developing safety performance functions (SPFs) to predict crash rates and develop crash modification factors to improve traffic safety at roadway segments and intersections. Generalized linear models (GLMs), such as Poisson or negative binomial regression, are most commonly used to develop SPFs with annual average daily traffic as the primary roadway characteristic to predict crashes. However, while more complex to interpret, data mining models such as boosted regression trees have improved upon GLMs crash prediction performance due to their ability to handle more data characteristics, accommodate non-linearities, and include interaction effects between the characteristics. An intersection data inventory of 36 safety relevant parameters for three- and four-legged non-signalized intersections along state routes in Alabama was used to study the importance of intersection characteristics on crash rate and the interaction effects between key characteristics. Four different SPFs were investigated and compared: Poisson regression, negative binomial regression, regularized generalized linear model, and boosted regression trees. The models did not agree on which intersection characteristics were most related to the crash rate. The boosted regression tree model significantly outperformed the other models and identified several intersection characteristics as having strong interaction effects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive microbiology: Quantitative science delivering quantifiable benefits to the meat industry and other food industries.

Science.gov (United States)

McMeekin, T A

2007-09-01

Predictive microbiology is considered in the context of the conference theme "chance, innovation and challenge", together with the impact of quantitative approaches on food microbiology, generally. The contents of four prominent texts on predictive microbiology are analysed and the major contributions of two meat microbiologists, Drs. T.A. Roberts and C.O. Gill, to the early development of predictive microbiology are highlighted. These provide a segue into R&D trends in predictive microbiology, including the Refrigeration Index, an example of science-based, outcome-focussed food safety regulation. Rapid advances in technologies and systems for application of predictive models are indicated and measures to judge the impact of predictive microbiology are suggested in terms of research outputs and outcomes. The penultimate section considers the future of predictive microbiology and advances that will become possible when data on population responses are combined with data derived from physiological and molecular studies in a systems biology approach. Whilst the emphasis is on science and technology for food safety management, it is suggested that decreases in foodborne illness will also arise from minimising human error by changing the food safety culture.

Prediction of Heat Transfer Performance on Horizontal U-Shaped Heat Exchanger in Passive Safety System Using MARS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeon, Seong-Su; Hong, Soon-Joon [FNC Tech, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Hyoung-Kyu; Park, Goon-Cherl [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

The design and the safety analysis of the passive safety systems are performed mainly using the best-estimate thermal-hydraulic analysis codes such as RELAP5 and MARS. This study developed the heat transfer model package for the horizontal U-shaped HX submerged in a pool by improving the horizontal in-tube condensation model and developing the outside-tube natural convective nucleate boiling model. This paper presents the HX model package and the validation results against the passive safety system-related experimental data of PASCAL and ATLAS-PAFS. This study developed the heat transfer model package of the horizontal U-shaped HX submerged in a pool in order to obtain a reliable prediction of the HX heat removal performance of the passive safety system, especially PAFS, using MARS. From the validation results, the proposed model package provided the improved prediction of HX performance (condensation, natural convective nucleate boiling, and heat removal rate of the HX) compared to the default model in MARS.

Resting heart rate variability predicts safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meike Pappens

Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate whether interindividual differences in autonomic inhibitory control predict safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm. Data from a previously reported study (N = 40 were extended (N = 17 and re-analyzed to test whether healthy participants' resting heart rate variability (HRV - a proxy of cardiac vagal tone - predicts learning performance. The conditioned stimulus (CS was a slight sensation of breathlessness induced by a flow resistor, the unconditioned stimulus (US was an aversive short-lasting suffocation experience induced by a complete occlusion of the breathing circuitry. During acquisition, the paired group received 6 paired CS-US presentations; the control group received 6 explicitly unpaired CS-US presentations. In the extinction phase, both groups were exposed to 6 CS-only presentations. Measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance responses (SCR and US-expectancy ratings. Resting HRV significantly predicted the startle blink EMG learning curves both during acquisition and extinction. In the unpaired group, higher levels of HRV at rest predicted safety learning to the CS during acquisition. In the paired group, higher levels of HRV were associated with better extinction. Our findings suggest that the strength or integrity of prefrontal inhibitory mechanisms involved in safety- and extinction learning can be indexed by HRV at rest.

Failure trend analysis for safety related components of Korean standard NPPs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sun Yeong; Han, Sang Hoon

2005-01-01

The component reliability data of Korean NPP that reflects the plant specific characteristics is required necessarily for PSA of Korean nuclear power plants. We have performed a project to develop the component reliability database (KIND, Korea Integrated Nuclear Reliability Database) and S/W for database management and component reliability analysis. Based on the system, we have collected the component operation data and failure/repair data during from plant operation date to 2002 for YGN 3, 4 and UCN 3, 4 plants. Recently, we provided the component failure rate data for UCN 3, 4 standard PSA model from the KIND. We evaluated the components that have high-ranking failure rates with the component reliability data from plant operation date to 1998 and 2000 for YGN 3,4 and UCN 3, 4 respectively. We also identified their failure mode that occurred frequently. In this study, we analyze the component failure trend and perform site comparison based on the generic data by using the component reliability data which is extended to 2002 for UCN 3, 4 and YGN 3, 4 respectively. We focus on the major safety related rotating components such as pump, EDG etc

Lung cancer mortality in European women: trends and predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosetti, Cristina; Malvezzi, Matteo; Rosso, Tiziana; Bertuccio, Paola; Gallus, Silvano; Chatenoud, Liliane; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo

2012-12-01

Female lung cancer mortality increased by 50% between the mid 1960s and the early 2000s in the European Union (EU). To monitor the current lung cancer epidemic in European women, we analyzed mortality trends in 33 European countries between 1970 and 2009 and estimated rates for the year 2015 using data from the World Health Organization. Female lung cancer mortality has been increasing up to recent calendar years in most European countries, with the exceptions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with relatively low rates, and the UK, Iceland and Ireland, where high rates were reached in mid/late 1990s to leveled off thereafter. In the EU, female lung cancer mortality rates rose over the last decade from 11.3 to 12.7/100,000 (+2.3% per year) at all ages and from 18.6 to 21.5/100,000 (+3.0% per year) in middle-age. A further increase is predicted, to reach 14/100,000 women in 2015. Lung cancer mortality trends have been more favorable over the last decade in young women (20-44 years), particularly in the UK and other former high-risk countries from northern and central/eastern Europe, but also in France, Italy, and Spain where mortality in young women has been increasing up to the early 2000s. In the EU as a whole, mortality at age 20-44 years decreased from 1.6 to 1.4/100,000 (-2.2% per year). Although the female lung cancer epidemic in Europe is still expanding, the epidemic may be controlled through the implementation of effective anti-tobacco measures, and it will probably never reach the top US rates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of main factors’ values of air transportation system safety based on system dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Spiridonov, A. Yu; Rezchikov, A. F.; Kushnikov, V. A.; Ivashchenko, V. A.; Bogomolov, A. S.; Filimonyuk, L. Yu; Dolinina, O. N.; Kushnikova, E. V.; Shulga, T. E.; Tverdokhlebov, V. A.; Kushnikov, O. V.; Fominykh, D. S.

2018-05-01

On the basis of the system-dynamic approach [1-8], a set of models has been developed that makes it possible to analyse and predict the values of the main safety indicators for the operation of aviation transport systems.

Prediction of Safety Incidents

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Safety incidents, including injuries, property damage and mission failures, cost NASA and contractors thousands of dollars in direct and indirect costs. This project...

Thermal reactor safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1980-06-01

Information is presented concerning new trends in licensing; seismic considerations and system structural behavior; TMI-2 risk assessment and thermal hydraulics; statistical assessment of potential accidents and verification of computational methods; issues with respect to improved safety; human factors in nuclear power plant operation; diagnostics and activities in support of recovery; LOCA transient analysis; unresolved safety issues and other safety considerations; and fission product transport

Thermal reactor safety

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-06-01

Information is presented concerning new trends in licensing; seismic considerations and system structural behavior; TMI-2 risk assessment and thermal hydraulics; statistical assessment of potential accidents and verification of computational methods; issues with respect to improved safety; human factors in nuclear power plant operation; diagnostics and activities in support of recovery; LOCA transient analysis; unresolved safety issues and other safety considerations; and fission product transport.

Safety analysis methodology with assessment of the impact of the prediction errors of relevant parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galia, A.V.

2011-01-01

The best estimate plus uncertainty approach (BEAU) requires the use of extensive resources and therefore it is usually applied for cases in which the available safety margin obtained with a conservative methodology can be questioned. Outside the BEAU methodology, there is not a clear approach on how to deal with the issue of considering the uncertainties resulting from prediction errors in the safety analyses performed for licensing submissions. However, the regulatory document RD-310 mentions that the analysis method shall account for uncertainties in the analysis data and models. A possible approach is presented, that is simple and reasonable, representing just the author's views, to take into account the impact of prediction errors and other uncertainties when performing safety analysis in line with regulatory requirements. The approach proposes taking into account the prediction error of relevant parameters. Relevant parameters would be those plant parameters that are surveyed and are used to initiate the action of a mitigating system or those that are representative of the most challenging phenomena for the integrity of a fission barrier. Examples of the application of the methodology are presented involving a comparison between the results with the new approach and a best estimate calculation during the blowdown phase for two small breaks in a generic CANDU 6 station. The calculations are performed with the CATHENA computer code. (author)

Assessment of S(α, β) libraries for criticality safety evaluations of wet storage pools by refined trend analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolbe, E.; Vasiliev, A.; Ferroukhi, H.

2009-01-01

In a recent criticality safety evaluation (CSE) of a commercial wet storage pool applying MCNPX-2.5.0 in combination with the ENDF/B-VII.0 and JEFF-3.1 continuous energy cross section libraries, the maximum permissible initial fuel-enrichment limit for water reflected configurations was found to be dependant upon the applied neutron cross section library. More detailed investigations indicated that the difference is mainly caused by different sub-libraries for thermal neutron scattering based on parameterizations of the S(α, β) scattering matrix. Hence an analysis of trends was done with respect to the low energy neutron flux in order to assess the S(α, β) data sets. First, when performing the trend analysis based on the full set of 149 benchmarks that were employed for the validation, significant trends could not be found. But by analyzing a selected subset of benchmarks clear trends with respect to the low energy neutron flux could be detected. The results presented in this paper demonstrate the sensitivity of specific configurations to the parameterizations of the S(α, β) scattering matrix and thus may help to improve CSE of wet storage pools. Finally, in addition to the low energy neutron flux, we also refined the trend analyses with respect to other key (spectrum-related) parameters by performing them with various selected subsets of the full suite of 149 benchmarks. The corresponding outcome using MCNPX 2.5.0 in combination with the ENDF/B-VII.0, ENDF/B-VI.8, JEFF-3.1, JEF-2.2, and JENDL-3.3 neutron cross section libraries are presented and discussed. (authors)

Development of pipe wall thinning prediction software 'FALSET'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoneda, Kimitoshi; Morita, Ryo; Inada, Fumio; Fujiwara, Kazutoshi

2012-01-01

Pipe wall thinning in power plants has been managed for maintaining plant integrity and safety with great importance. The target thinning phenomena are Flow Accelerated Corrosion (FAC) and Liquid Droplet Impingement Erosion (LDI). At present, the management is based on thinning rate and residual lifetime evaluation using pipe wall thickness measurement results. For the future, more safety and improvement in the management is required, and in this sense, prediction method of wall thinning is willing to be introduced. Therefore, prediction model of FAC and LDI have been constructed in CRIEPI, and to utilize these models to actual plant piping management easily, prediction software 'FALSET' is developed. FALSET has equipped with essential function for pipe wall thinning management in power plants, as follows; (1) Information and condition input of plant piping system and its component, (2) Wall thinning rate evaluation with CRIEPI's FAC/LDI prediction model, (3) Loading of wall thickness measurement data files and graphics of data trend, (4) Residual lifetime evaluation considering both measured and predicted thinning rate, (5) Statistical process and graphics of thinning rate and residual lifetime for multi-piping systems. With further verification and improvement of each function, there will be a perspective for this FALSET to be utilized as a management tool in power plants. (author)

Operational Safety Performance Indicators and Balanced Scorecard in HANARO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jong-Sup; Jung, Hoan-Sung; Ahn, Guk-Hoon; Lee, Kye-Hong; Lim, In-Cheol; Kim, Hark-Rho

2007-01-01

Research reactors need an extensive basis for ensuring their safety. The importance of a safety management in nuclear facilities and activities has been emphasized. The safety activities in HANARO have been continuously conducted to enhance its safe operation. Last year, HANARO prepared two indicator sets to measure and assess the safety status of the reactor's operation and utilization. One is Safety Performance Indicators (SPI) and the other is Balanced Scorecard (BSC). Through reviewing these indicators, we can obtain the following information; - Plant safety status - Safety parameter trends - Safety information, for example, reactor operation status and radiation safety HANARO will continuously pursue the trends of SPI and BSC

Trends in Control Area of PLC Reliability and Safety Parameters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juraj Zdansky

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Extension of the PLC application possibilities is closely related to increase of reliability and safety parameters. If the requirement of reliability and safety parameters will be suitable, the PLC could by implemented to specific applications such the safety-related processes control. The goal of this article is to show the way which producers are approaching to increase PLC`s reliability and safety parameters. The second goal is to analyze these parameters for range of present choice and describe the possibility how the reliability and safety parameters can be affected.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

Science.gov (United States)

Ferro, Ana; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bosetti, Cristina; Bertuccio, Paola; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2014-05-01

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety KPIs - Monitoring of safety performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Lališ

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to provide brief overview of aviation safety development focusing on modern trends represented by implementation of Safety Key Performance Indicators. Even though aviation is perceived as safe means of transport, it is still struggling with its complexity given by long-term growth and robustness which it has reached today. Thus nowadays safety issues are much more complex and harder to handle than ever before. We are more and more concerned about organizational factors and control mechanisms which have potential to further increase level of aviation safety. Within this paper we will not only introduce the concept of Key Performance Indicators in area of aviation safety as an efficient control mechanism, but also analyse available legislation and documentation. Finally we will propose complex set of indicators which could be applied to Czech Air Navigation Service Provider.

High Burnup Fuel Performance and Safety Research

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bang, Je Keun; Lee, Chan Bok; Kim, Dae Ho (and others)

2007-03-15

The worldwide trend of nuclear fuel development is to develop a high burnup and high performance nuclear fuel with high economies and safety. Because the fuel performance evaluation code, INFRA, has a patent, and the superiority for prediction of fuel performance was proven through the IAEA CRP FUMEX-II program, the INFRA code can be utilized with commercial purpose in the industry. The INFRA code was provided and utilized usefully in the universities and relevant institutes domesticallly and it has been used as a reference code in the industry for the development of the intrinsic fuel rod design code.

Tool Sequence Trends in Minimally Invasive Surgery: Statistical Analysis and Implications for Predictive Control of Multifunction Instruments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carl A. Nelson

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of 67 minimally invasive surgical procedures covering 11 different procedure types to determine patterns of tool use. A new graph-theoretic approach was taken to organize and analyze the data. Through grouping surgeries by type, trends of common tool changes were identified. Using the concept of signal/noise ratio, these trends were found to be statistically strong. The tool-use trends were used to generate tool placement patterns for modular (multi-tool, cartridge-type surgical tool systems, and the same 67 surgeries were numerically simulated to determine the optimality of these tool arrangements. The results indicate that aggregated tool-use data (by procedure type can be employed to predict tool-use sequences with good accuracy, and also indicate the potential for artificial intelligence as a means of preoperative and/or intraoperative planning. Furthermore, this suggests that the use of multifunction surgical tools can be optimized to streamline surgical workflow.

Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture

OpenAIRE

Narvydas, A

2014-01-01

The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

Probabilistic safety criteria at the safety function/system level

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-09-01

A Technical Committee Meeting was held in Vienna, Austria, from 26-30 January 1987. The objectives of the meeting were: to review the national developments of PSC at the level of safety functions/systems including future trends; to analyse basic principles, assumptions, and objectives; to compare numerical values and the rationale for choosing them; to compile the experience with use of such PSC; to analyse the role of uncertainties in particular regarding procedures for showing compliance. The general objective of establishing PSC at the level of safety functions/systems is to provide a pragmatic tool to evaluate plant safety which is placing emphasis on the prevention principle. Such criteria could thus lead to a better understanding of the importance to safety of the various functions which have to be performed to ensure the safety of the plant, and the engineering means of performing these functions. They would reflect the state-of-the-art in modern PSAs and could contribute to a balance in system design. This report, prepared by the participants of the meeting, reviews the current status and future trends in the field and should assist Member States in developing their national approaches. The draft of this document was also submitted to INSAG to be considered in its work to prepare a document on safety principles for nuclear power plants. Five papers presented at the meeting are also included in this publication. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs and tabs

Improved methods of online monitoring and prediction in condensate and feed water system of nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hang; Peng, Min-jun; Wu, Peng; Cheng, Shou-yu

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Different methods for online monitoring and diagnosis are summarized. • Numerical simulation modeling of condensate and feed water system in nuclear power plant are done by FORTRAN programming. • Integrated online monitoring and prediction methods have been developed and tested. • Online monitoring module, fault diagnosis module and trends prediction module can be verified with each other. - Abstract: Faults or accidents may occur in a nuclear power plant (NPP), but it is hard for operators to recognize the situation and take effective measures quickly. So, online monitoring, diagnosis and prediction (OMDP) is used to provide enough information to operators and improve the safety of NPPs. In this paper, distributed conservation equation (DCE) and artificial immunity system (AIS) are proposed for online monitoring and diagnosis. On this basis, quantitative simulation models and interactive database are combined to predict the trends and severity of faults. The effectiveness of OMDP in improving the monitoring and prediction of condensate and feed water system (CFWS) was verified through simulation tests.

Prevalence of current patterns and predictive trends of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Sudan.

Science.gov (United States)

Elshayeb, Ayman A; Ahmed, Abdelazim A; El Siddig, Marmar A; El Hussien, Adil A

2017-11-14

Enteric fever has persistence of great impact in Sudanese public health especially during rainy season when the causative agent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi possesses pan endemic patterns in most regions of Sudan - Khartoum. The present study aims to assess the recent state of antibiotics susceptibility of Salmonella Typhi with special concern to multidrug resistance strains and predict the emergence of new resistant patterns and outbreaks. Salmonella Typhi strains were isolated and identified according to the guidelines of the International Standardization Organization and the World Health Organization. The antibiotics susceptibilities were tested using the recommendations of the Clinical Laboratories Standards Institute. Predictions of emerging resistant bacteria patterns and outbreaks in Sudan were done using logistic regression, forecasting linear equations and in silico simulations models. A total of 124 antibiotics resistant Salmonella Typhi strains categorized in 12 average groups were isolated, different patterns of resistance statistically calculated by (y = ax - b). Minimum bactericidal concentration's predication of resistance was given the exponential trend (y = n e x ) and the predictive coefficient R 2  > 0 current antimicrobial drug resistance patterns of community-acquired agents causing outbreaks.

How well do regional or national Breeding Bird Survey data predict songbird population trends at an intact boreal site?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Craig S. Machtans

2014-06-01

Full Text Available A study to monitor boreal songbird trends was initiated in 1998 in a relatively undisturbed and remote part of the boreal forest in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Eight years of point count data were collected over the 14 years of the study, 1998-2011. Trends were estimated for 50 bird species using generalized linear mixed-effects models, with random effects to account for temporal (repeat sampling within years and spatial (stations within stands autocorrelation and variability associated with multiple observers. We tested whether regional and national Breeding Bird Survey (BBS trends could, on average, predict trends in our study area. Significant increases in our study area outnumbered decreases by 12 species to 6, an opposite pattern compared to Alberta (6 versus 15, respectively and Canada (9 versus 20. Twenty-two species with relatively precise trend estimates (precision to detect > 30% decline in 10 years; observed SE ≤ 3.7%/year showed nonsignificant trends, similar to Alberta (24 and Canada (20. Precision-weighted trends for a sample of 19 species with both reliable trends at our site and small portions of their range covered by BBS in Canada were, on average, more negative for Alberta (1.34% per year lower and for Canada (1.15% per year lower relative to Fort Liard, though 95% credible intervals still contained zero. We suggest that part of the differences could be attributable to local resource pulses (insect outbreak. However, we also suggest that the tendency for BBS route coverage to disproportionately sample more southerly, developed areas in the boreal forest could result in BBS trends that are not representative of range-wide trends for species whose range is centred farther north.

Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T

2011-07-01

Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W.; Machado, Marcelo D.

2011-01-01

Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

Prediction of Safety Stock Using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and Technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for Stock Control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI)

Science.gov (United States)

Mashuri, Chamdan; Suryono; Suseno, Jatmiko Endro

2018-02-01

This research was conducted by prediction of safety stock using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) and technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) for stock control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI). Well-controlled stock influenced company revenue and minimized cost. It discussed about information system of safety stock prediction developed through programming language of PHP. Input data consisted of demand got from automatic, online and real time acquisition using technology of RFID, then, sent to server and stored at online database. Furthermore, data of acquisition result was predicted by using algorithm of FTS applying universe of discourse defining and fuzzy sets determination. Fuzzy set result was continued to division process of universe of discourse in order to be to final step. Prediction result was displayed at information system dashboard developed. By using 60 data from demand data, prediction score was 450.331 and safety stock was 135.535. Prediction result was done by error deviation validation using Mean Square Percent Error of 15%. It proved that FTS was good enough in predicting demand and safety stock for stock control. For deeper analysis, researchers used data of demand and universe of discourse U varying at FTS to get various result based on test data used.

Prediction of Safety Stock Using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS and Technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID for Stock Control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mashuri Chamdan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This research was conducted by prediction of safety stock using Fuzzy Time Series (FTS and technology of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID for stock control at Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI. Well-controlled stock influenced company revenue and minimized cost. It discussed about information system of safety stock prediction developed through programming language of PHP. Input data consisted of demand got from automatic, online and real time acquisition using technology of RFID, then, sent to server and stored at online database. Furthermore, data of acquisition result was predicted by using algorithm of FTS applying universe of discourse defining and fuzzy sets determination. Fuzzy set result was continued to division process of universe of discourse in order to be to final step. Prediction result was displayed at information system dashboard developed. By using 60 data from demand data, prediction score was 450.331 and safety stock was 135.535. Prediction result was done by error deviation validation using Mean Square Percent Error of 15%. It proved that FTS was good enough in predicting demand and safety stock for stock control. For deeper analysis, researchers used data of demand and universe of discourse U varying at FTS to get various result based on test data used.

Safety Culture Monitoring: How to Assess Safety Culture in Real Time?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zronek, B.; Maryska, J.; Treslova, L.

2016-01-01

Do you know what is current level of safety culture in your company? Are you able to follow trend changes? Do you know what your recent issues are? Since safety culture is understood as vital part of nuclear industry daily life, it is crucial to know what the current level is. It is common to perform safety culture survey or ad hoc assessment. This contribution shares Temelin NPP, CEZ approach how to assess safety culture level permanently. Using behavioral related outputs of gap solving system, observation program, dedicated surveys, regulatory assessment, etc., allows creating real time safety culture monitoring without the need to perform any other activities. (author)

Modelling of Condensation in Vertical Tubes for Passive Safety System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papini, D.; Ricotti, M.; Santini, L.; Grgic, D.

2008-01-01

Condensation in vertical tubes plays an important role in the performance of heat exchangers in passive safety systems, widely adopted in next generation reactors. Vertical pipe condensers are implemented in the GE-SBWR1000 Isolation Condenser as well as in the Emergency Heat Removal System (EHRS) of the IRIS reactor. The transient and safety analysis is usually carried out by means of best-estimate, thermalhydraulic codes, as RELAP. Suitable heat transfer correlations are required to duly model the two-phase processes. As far as the condensation process is concerned, RELAP5/MOD3.3 adopts the Nusselt correlation to calculate the heat transfer coefficient in laminar conditions and the Shah correlation for turbulent conditions; the maximum of the predictions from laminar and turbulent regimes is used to calculate the condensation heat transfer coefficient. Shah correlation is generally considered as the best empirical correlation for turbulent annular film condensation, but suitable in proper ranges of the various parameters. Nevertheless, recent investigations have pointed out that its validity is highly questionable for high pressure and large diameter tube applications with water, as should be for the utilization for vertical tube condensers in passive safety systems. Thus, a best-estimate model, based on the theory of film condensation on a plain wall, is proposed. Condensate velocity, expressed in terms of Reynolds number, governs the development of three different regime zones: laminar, laminar wavy and turbulent. The best correlation for each regime (Nusselt's for laminar, Kutateladze's for laminar wavy and Chen's for turbulent) is considered and then implemented in RELAP code. Comparison between the Nusselt-Shah and the proposed model shows substantial differences in heat transfer coefficient prediction. Especially, a trend of increasing value of the heat transfer coefficient with tube abscissa (and quality decreasing) is predicted, when turbulence

Trends in fusion reactor safety research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herring, J.S.; Holland, D.F.; Piet, S.J.

1991-01-01

Fusion has the potential to be an attractive energy source. From the safety and environmental perspective, fusion must avoid concerns about catastrophic accidents and unsolvable waste disposal. In addition, fusion must achieve an acceptable level of risk from operational accidents that result in public exposure and economic loss. Finally, fusion reactors must control routine radioactive effluent, particularly tritium. Major progress in achieving this potential rests on development of low-activation materials or alternative fuels. The safety and performance of various material choices and fuels for commercial fusion reactors can be investigated relatively inexpensively through reactor design studies. These studies bring together experts in a wide range of backgrounds and force the group to either agree on a reactor design or identify areas for further study. Fusion reactors will be complex with distributed radioactive inventories. The next generation of experiments will be critical in demonstrating that acceptable levels of safe operation can be achieved. These machines will use materials which are available today and for which a large database exists (e.g. for 316 stainless steel). Researchers have developed a good understanding of the risks associated with operation of these devices. Specifically, consequences from coolant system failures, loss of vacuum events, tritium releases, and liquid metal reactions have been studied. Recent studies go beyond next step designs and investigate commercial reactor concerns including tritium release and liquid metal reactions. 18 refs

Psychosocial safety climate moderates the job demand-resource interaction in predicting workgroup distress.

Science.gov (United States)

Dollard, Maureen F; Tuckey, Michelle R; Dormann, Christian

2012-03-01

Psychosocial safety climate (PSC) arises from workplace policies, practices, and procedures for the protection of worker psychological health and safety that are largely driven by management. Many work stress theories are based on the fundamental interaction hypothesis - that a high level of job demands (D) will lead to psychological distress and that this relationship will be offset when there are high job resources (R). However we proposed that this interaction really depends on the organizational context; in particular high levels of psychosocial safety climate will enable the safe utilization of resources to reduce demands. The study sample consisted of police constables from 23 police units (stations) with longitudinal survey responses at two time points separated by 14 months (Time 1, N=319, Time 2, N=139). We used hierarchical linear modeling to assess the effect of the proposed three-way interaction term (PSC×D×R) on change in workgroup distress variance over time. Specifically we confirmed the interaction between emotional demands and emotional resources (assessed at the individual level), in the context of unit psychosocial safety climate (aggregated individual data). As predicted, high emotional resources moderated the positive relationship between emotional demands and change in workgroup distress but only when there were high levels of unit psychosocial safety climate. Results were confirmed using a split-sample analysis. Results support psychosocial safety climate as a property of the organization and a target for higher order controls for reducing work stress. The 'right' climate enables resources to do their job. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Safety indicators: an efficient tool for a better safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aufort, P.; Lars, R.

1993-01-01

Safety indicators based on the examination of the Operating Technical Specifications have been defined with the aim of following the in-operation safety level of French nuclear power plants. These safety indicators are operation feedback tools which permit the a posteriori justification and the adjustment of actual procedures. They would allow detection of an abnormal unavailability occurrence rate or a situation revealing a potential safety problem. So, data acquisition, processing, analysis and display software allowing trend analysis of these indicators has been developed so far as: a reflexion tool for the power plant operators about the safety instructions and the adjustment of preventive maintenance, and a help for decision making at a national level for the examination and the improvement of Operating Technical Specifications. This paper presents the objectives of these safety indicators, the processing tool associated, the preliminary results obtained and more elaborate processing of these indicators. These safety indicators may be very useful in framing probabilistic safety assessments. (author)

Trends of Abutment-Scour Prediction Equations Applied to 144 Field Sites in South Carolina

Science.gov (United States)

Benedict, Stephen T.; Deshpande, Nikhil; Aziz, Nadim M.; Conrads, Paul

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration in which predicted abutment-scour depths computed with selected predictive equations were compared with field measurements of abutment-scour depth made at 144 bridges in South Carolina. The assessment used five equations published in the Fourth Edition of 'Evaluating Scour at Bridges,' (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18), including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. An additional unpublished equation also was assessed. Comparisons between predicted and observed scour depths are intended to illustrate general trends and order-of-magnitude differences for the prediction equations. Field measurements were taken during non-flood conditions when the hydraulic conditions that caused the scour generally are unknown. The predicted scour depths are based on hydraulic conditions associated with the 100-year flow at all sites and the flood of record for 35 sites. Comparisons showed that predicted scour depths frequently overpredict observed scour and at times were excessive. The comparison also showed that underprediction occurred, but with less frequency. The performance of these equations indicates that they are poor predictors of abutment-scour depth in South Carolina, and it is probable that poor performance will occur when the equations are applied in other geographic regions. Extensive data and graphs used to compare predicted and observed scour depths in this study were compiled into spreadsheets and are included in digital format with this report. In addition to the equation-comparison data, Water-Surface Profile Model tube-velocity data, soil-boring data, and selected abutment-scour data are included in digital format with this report. The digital database was developed as a resource for future researchers and is especially valuable for evaluating the reasonableness of future equations that may be developed.

Safety performance indicators used by the Russian Safety Regulatory Authority in its practical activities on nuclear power plant safety regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khazanov, A.L.

2005-01-01

The Sixth Department of the Nuclear, Industrial and Environmental Regulatory Authority of Russia, Scientific and Engineering Centre for Nuclear and Radiation Safety process, analyse and use the information on nuclear power plants (NPPs) operational experience or NPPs safety improvement. Safety performance indicators (SPIs), derived from processing of information on operational violations and analysis of annual NPP Safety Reports, are used as tools to determination of trends towards changing of characteristics of operational safety, to assess the effectiveness of corrective measures, to monitor and evaluate the current operational safety level of NPPs, to regulate NPP safety. This report includes a list of the basic SPIs, those used by the Russian safety regulatory authority in regulatory activity. Some of them are absent in list of IAEA-TECDOC-1141 ('Operational safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants'). (author)

Safety assessment, safety performance indicators at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baji, C.; Vamos, G.; Toth, J.

2001-01-01

The Paks Nuclear Power Plant has been using different methods of safety assessment (event analysis, self-assessment, probabilistic safety analysis), including performance indicators characterizing both operational and safety performance since the early years of operation of the plant. Regarding the safety performance, the indicators include safety system performance, number of scrams, release of radioactive materials, number of safety significant events, industrial safety indicator, etc. The Paks NPP also reports a set of ten indicators to WANO Performance Indicator Programme which, among others, include safety related indicators as well. However, a more systematic approach to structuring and trending safety indicators is needed so that they can contribute to the enhancement of the operational safety. A more comprehensive set of indicators and a systematic evaluation process was introduced in 1996. The performance indicators framework proposed by the IAEA was adapted to Paks in this year to further improve the process. Safety culture assessment and characterizing safety culture is part of the assessment process. (author)

Safety culture indicators for NPP: international trends and development status in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Y. S.; Ko, J. D.; Choi, K. S.; Jung, Y. H.

2004-01-01

Safety culture has been recognized as important to achieve high level of nuclear safety, as several recent events that have occurred in advanced countries were found to have important implications for safety culture. Under the recognition, implementation-focused and practical methods to foster safety culture have become necessary. Development of safety culture indicators for assessing the level of safety culture and identifying some deficiencies is being conducted. This paper examines the regulatory positions of major nuclear power countries on licensee's safety culture, introduces the development status of Korean Safety Culture Indicators and presents its future direction

Study of the Continuous Improvement Trend for Health, Safety and Environmental Indicators, after Establishment of Integrated Management System (IMS) in a Pharmaceutical Industry in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Mariouryad, Pegah; Golbabaei, Farideh; Nasiri, Parvin; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Marioryad, Hossein

2015-10-01

Nowadays, organizations try to improve their services and consequently adopt management systems and standards which have become key parts in various industries. One of these management systems which have been noticed in the recent years is Integrated Management System that is the combination of quality, health, safety and environment management systems. This study was conducted with the aim of evaluating the improvement trend after establishment of integrated management system for health, safety and environment indicators, in a pharmaceutical industry in Iran. First, during several inspections in different parts of the industry, indicators that should have been noted were listed and then these indicators were organized in 3 domains of health, safety and environment in the form of a questionnaire that followed Likert method of scaling. Also, the weight of each index was resulted from averaging out of 30 managers and the viewpoints of the related experts in the field. Moreover, by checking the documents and evidence of different years (5 contemplation years of this study), the score of each indicator was determined by multiplying the weight and score of the indices and were finally analysed. Over 5 years, scores of health scope indicators, increased from 161.99 to 202.23. Score in the first year after applying the integrated management system establishment was 172.37 in safety part and in the final year increased to 197.57. The changes of environmental scope rates, from the beginning of the program up to the last year increased from 49.24 to 64.27. Integrated management systems help organizations to improve programs to achieve their objectives. Although in this study all trends of health, safety and environmental indicator changes were positive, but at the same time showed to be slow. So, one can suggest that the result of an annual evaluation should be applied in planning future activities for the years ahead.

A retrospective study and predictive modelling of Newcastle Disease trends among rural poultry of eastern Zambia.

Science.gov (United States)

Mubamba, C; Ramsay, G; Abolnik, C; Dautu, G; Gummow, B

2016-10-01

Newcastle Disease (ND) is a highly infectious disease of poultry that seriously impacts on food security and livelihoods of livestock farmers and communities in tropical regions of the world. ND is a constant problem in the eastern province of Zambia which has more than 740 000 rural poultry. Very few studies give a situational analysis of the disease that can be used for disease control planning in the region. With this background in mind, a retrospective epidemiological study was conducted using Newcastle Disease data submitted to the eastern province headquarters for the period from 1989 to 2014. The study found that Newcastle Disease cases in eastern Zambia followed a seasonal and cyclic pattern with peaks in the hot dry season (Overall Seasonal Index 1.1) as well as cycles every three years with an estimated provincial incidence range of 0.16 to 1.7% per year. Annual trends were compared with major intervention policies implemented by the Zambian government, which often received donor support from the international community during the study period. Aid delivered through government programmes appeared to have no major impact on ND trends between 1989 and 2014 and reasons for this are discussed. There were apparent spatial shifts in districts with outbreaks over time which could be as a result of veterinary interventions chasing outbreaks rather than implementing uniform control. Data was also fitted to a predictive time series model for ND which could be used to plan for future ND control. Time series modelling showed an increasing trend in ND annual incidence over 25 years if existing interventions continue. A different approach to controlling the disease is needed if this trend is to be halted. Conversely, the positive trend may be a function of improved reporting by farmers as a result of more awareness of the disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Highway Safety: Trends in Highway Fatalities 1975-1987

Science.gov (United States)

1990-03-01

pattern of fatalities as the overall trend. This pattern applies to many of the general fatality statis- tics we present, and, in all cases, it serves as a...Fatalities 1975-87 Appemfx IV Vehicle-Related Statistics Figure IV.17: Vehicle Fatalities by Direction of Principal Impacto NNNumber of PddUlsils lwam 0 1975

Thermal hydraulic test for reactor safety system - Critical heat flux experiment and development of prediction models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chang, Soon Heung; Baek, Won Pil; Yang, Soo Hyung; No, Chang Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Taejon (Korea)

2000-04-01

To acquire CHF data through the experiments and develop prediction models, research was conducted. Final objectives of research are as follows: 1) Production of tube CHF data for low and middle pressure and mass flux and Flow Boiling Visualization. 2) Modification and suggestion of tube CHF prediction models. 3) Development of fuel bundle CHF prediction methodology base on tube CHF prediction models. The major results of research are as follows: 1) Production of the CHF data for low and middle pressure and mass flux. - Acquisition of CHF data (764) for low and middle pressure and flow conditions - Analysis of CHF trends based on the CHF data - Assessment of existing CHF prediction methods with the CHF data 2) Modification and suggestion of tube CHF prediction models. - Development of a unified CHF model applicable for a wide parametric range - Development of a threshold length correlation - Improvement of CHF look-up table using the threshold length correlation 3) Development of fuel bundle CHF prediction methodology base on tube CHF prediction models. - Development of bundle CHF prediction methodology using correction factor. 11 refs., 134 figs., 25 tabs. (Author)

Dose trend analysis of the PWR nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cernilogar Radez, M.; Janzekovic, H.; Krizman, M.

2002-01-01

The analyses of occupational dose trends in Krsko NPP in the period from 1995 to 2001 are given in comparison to the worldwide data. The Central Dose Register of Workers in Nuclear Installations at the Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration enables the comprehensive dose trend analysis of the occupational doses in Krsko NPP. The time dose trend of the collective annual effective dose at the Krsko NPP shows somehow different trend than the trends of the ISOE data [1]. The performance indicators describing dose data distributions related to the radiation protection standards [2, 3] are discussed.(author)

Nuclear power performance and safety. V.3. Safety and international co-operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-01-01

The International Conference on Nuclear Power Performance and Safety, organized by the International Atomic Energy Agency, was held at the Austria Centre Vienna (ACV) in Vienna, Austria, from 28 September to 2 October 1987. The objective of the Conference was to promote an exchange of worldwide information on the current trends in the performance and safety of nuclear power and its fuel cycle, and to take a forward look at the expectations and objectives for the 1990s. This objective was accomplished through presentation and discussion of about 200 papers at the Conference. Almost 500 participants and observers from 40 countries and 12 organizations discussed three major questions which were posed as the focus of this Conference: (1) What are the current trends and major issues with regard to performance and safety of nuclear power, the nuclear fuel cycle and radioactive waste management? (2) What steps are being taken or need to be taken to resolve outstanding issues in order to improve the performance of nuclear power with assured safety? (3) What performance objectives and achievements can be anticipated for the 1990s? All presentations of this Conference were divided into six volumes. This is Volume 3 which is devoted to the problems of safety and international cooperation. All presentations of Volume 3 were divided into four sessions as follows: the need for safety in nuclear power programmes (4 papers); international cooperation in nuclear safety (6 papers); technical aspects in plant safety (7 papers); approaches to safety (3 papers). A separate abstract was prepared for each of these 20 papers. Refs, figs and tabs

Consideration of future safety consequences: a new predictor of employee safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Probst, Tahira M; Graso, Maja; Estrada, Armando X; Greer, Sarah

2013-06-01

Compliance with safety behaviors is often associated with longer term benefits, but may require some short-term sacrifices. This study examines the extent to which consideration of future safety consequences (CFSC) predicts employee safety outcomes. Two field studies were conducted to evaluate the reliability and validity of the newly developed Consideration of Future Safety Consequences (CFSC) scale. Surveys containing the CFSC scale and other measures of safety attitudes, behaviors, and outcomes were administered during working hours to a sample of 128 pulp and paper mill employees; after revising the CFSC scale based on these initial results, follow-up survey data were collected in a second sample of 212 copper miners. In Study I, CFSC was predictive of employee safety knowledge and motivation, compliance, safety citizenship behaviors, accident reporting attitudes and behaviors, and workplace injuries - even after accounting for conscientiousness and demographic variables. Moreover, the effects of CFSC on the variables generally appear to be direct, as opposed to mediated by safety knowledge or motivation. These findings were largely replicated in Study II. CFSC appears to be an important personality construct that may predict those individuals who are more likely to comply with safety rules and have more positive safety outcomes. Future research should examine the longitudinal stability of CFSC to determine the extent to which this construct is a stable trait, rather than a safety attitude amenable to change over time or following an intervention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting the role of veterinary medicine in future health and food safety challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Fejzić, N.; Šerić-Haračić, S.

2017-09-01

Animals have always been a source of food, materials, protection and wellbeing for humans; however, animal diseases, including zoonoses, have both direct and indirect negative effects on human health, economy and the society. Since its establishment, the veterinary profession has provided crucial input in eradicating disease, increasing animal production and reducing losses due to diseases. Currently, foodborne diseases and zoonoses have raised awareness in developed countries, which have excellent systems for disease surveillance and reporting both in humans and animal populations. Due to lack of modern, integrated surveillance and reporting, the burden of zoonoses and foodborne diseases in developing European countries is much harder to assess. Differences in countries’ animal health status (demonstrated through disease surveillance) have been a main pivot point for international trade of animals and animal products. However, rapid and dramatic evolvement of the health trends in the world changed the principles of animal disease surveillance. Approaches requiring lower cost (i.e. risk-based surveillance) are now proposed, not only due to less available public funding, but also because the costs are harder to justify to policy makers if a disease is exotic and/or rare. Therefore, the veterinary profession has faced insufficient interest of governments and funds for further research into many persistent endemic animal diseases and zoonoses. On the other hand, eradication of selected diseases in some areas while elsewhere they still persist, and the continuous emergence of new diseases, cannot guarantee permanent epidemiological stability. As food safety and security become more important, global trends and events have highlighted the biological, health and economic inseparability of the relationships between humans, animals as pets and/or food sources and wildlife within the social and ecological framework of living space that these species share. Veterinarians

Safety Culture: Lessons Learned from the US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigations Board

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Griffon, M.

2016-01-01

The U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board (CSB) investigation of the 2005 BP Texas City Refinery disaster as well as the Baker Panel Report have set the stage for the consideration of human and organizational factors and safety culture as contributing causes of major accidents in the oil and gas industry. The investigation of the BP Texas City tragedy in many ways started a shift in the way the oil and chemical industry sectors looked at process safety and the importance of human and organizational factors in improving safety. Since the BP Texas City incident the CSB has investigated several incidents, including the 2010 Macondo disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, where organizational factors and safety culture, once again, were contributing causes of the incidents. In the Texas City incident the CSB found that “while most attention was focused on the injury rate, the overall safety culture and process safety management (PSM) program had serious deficiencies.” The CSB concluded that “safety campaigns, goals, and rewards focused on improving personal safety metrics and worker behaviors rather than on process safety and management safety systems.” The Baker panel, established as a result of a CSB recommendation, did a more extensive review of BPs safety culture. The Baker panel found that ‘while BP has aspirational goals of “no accidents, no harm to people” BP has not provided effective leadership in making certain it’s management and US refining workforce understand what is expected of them regarding process safety performance.’ This may have been in part due to a misinterpretation of positive trends in personal injury rates as an indicator of effective process safety. The panel also found that “at some of its US refineries BP has not established a positive, trusting and open environment with effective lines of communication between management and the workforce, including employee representatives.” In 2010 when the CSB began to

Predicting the indicators of the safety performance monitoring after implementation of integrated management system (IMS in a combined cycle power plant in Yazd city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Laal

2015-07-01

.Conclusion: Findings show that Cubic regression can be an appropriate to olforinvestigating the indicators trends and for their predictionin planning and monitoring the performance ofsafety unitso that the decision-making for determining the priority of organizations’ safety programs would be facilitated.

Software system safety

Science.gov (United States)

Uber, James G.

1988-01-01

Software itself is not hazardous, but since software and hardware share common interfaces there is an opportunity for software to create hazards. Further, these software systems are complex, and proven methods for the design, analysis, and measurement of software safety are not yet available. Some past software failures, future NASA software trends, software engineering methods, and tools and techniques for various software safety analyses are reviewed. Recommendations to NASA are made based on this review.

Prediction of the safety level in a tritium processing facility through predictive maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anghel, Vasile

2007-01-01

Full text: The safety level of a nuclear facility for personnel and environment depends generally on the technological process quality of operation and maintenance and particularly on several technical, technological, economic, and human factors. The role of maintenance is fundamental because it is determined by all the technical, economic and human elements as parts of an integrated system dominated by an important feedback from upstream activities which eventually define the life cycle of the nuclear facility considered. In the maintenance activity as in case of any dynamic area, new elements may appear which, sometimes, require new methods of approach. For considered installation which is a Nuclear Detritiation Plant (NDP) operating as a division of the National Research and Development Institute for Cryogenics and Isotopic Technologies - ICSI, Rm.Valcea, in order to ensure a safety level in operation as high as possible through predictive maintenance, the fuzzy theory and software LabVIEW were applied. The final aim is to achieve the best practices in maintenance of the tritium processing plant. The safety in operation of the NDP equipment and installations is directly related with the maintenance achieved by improving the reliability through methods and advanced techniques. The maintainability is the capacity of an industrial product, in given utilization conditions, to be maintained and re-established up to achieve specified functions. In general the reliability on some interval is a probability conditioned by good operation at the beginning of the interval, representing thus the probability as the element which operated at t = t 0 to operate in the interval (t 0 , t 1 ). The failure is a fundamental event in the reliability theory. Breakdown (failure) is understood as the stop process of the function required from a given product, the failure representing the effect upon that process. The operation of a product on a certain duration can be a 'success' or a

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, JianYing; Zhang, Tong; Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin; Niu, Bing

2018-01-01

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Yi; Zhou, GuangYa; Chen, Qin

2018-01-01

Background Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends. Methods American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression. Results For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity), SP (specificity) and ACC (prediction accuracy) values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively. Conclusion This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast. PMID:29385198

Vesicular stomatitis forecasting based on Google Trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JianYing Wang

Full Text Available Vesicular stomatitis (VS is an important viral disease of livestock. The main feature of VS is irregular blisters that occur on the lips, tongue, oral mucosa, hoof crown and nipple. Humans can also be infected with vesicular stomatitis and develop meningitis. This study analyses 2014 American VS outbreaks in order to accurately predict vesicular stomatitis outbreak trends.American VS outbreaks data were collected from OIE. The data for VS keywords were obtained by inputting 24 disease-related keywords into Google Trends. After calculating the Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, it was found that there was a relationship between outbreaks and keywords derived from Google Trends. Finally, the predicted model was constructed based on qualitative classification and quantitative regression.For the regression model, the Pearson correlation coefficients between the predicted outbreaks and actual outbreaks are 0.953 and 0.948, respectively. For the qualitative classification model, we constructed five classification predictive models and chose the best classification predictive model as the result. The results showed, SN (sensitivity, SP (specificity and ACC (prediction accuracy values of the best classification predictive model are 78.52%,72.5% and 77.14%, respectively.This study applied Google search data to construct a qualitative classification model and a quantitative regression model. The results show that the method is effective and that these two models obtain more accurate forecast.

Correlation of the corrosion rates of steels in a straw fired boiler with the thermodynamically predicted trend of KOH(g) in the flue gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blomberg, Tom

2012-01-01

The thermodynamic stability of KOH(g) in flue gases without sulfur and chlorine compounds was studied. Relatively good correlation of the thermodynamically predicted trend of KOH(g) in the flue gases and the literature data of the corrosion rates of different steels in a straw fired boiler was found. A discussion on a possible, physically reasonable mechanism is also presented. However, the causality of the found correlation requires further studies. Highlights: ► Corrosion rates in a straw boiler correlate with the predicted trend of KOH(g). ► KOH(g) impinging the surface may be an important factor in corrosion in straw fired boilers. ► The proposed mechanism may be relevant also to other biomass fuels that release potassium hydroxide during combustion.

Prevalence of current patterns and predictive trends of multidrug-resistant Salmonella Typhi in Sudan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayman A. Elshayeb

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Enteric fever has persistence of great impact in Sudanese public health especially during rainy season when the causative agent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi possesses pan endemic patterns in most regions of Sudan - Khartoum. Objectives The present study aims to assess the recent state of antibiotics susceptibility of Salmonella Typhi with special concern to multidrug resistance strains and predict the emergence of new resistant patterns and outbreaks. Methods Salmonella Typhi strains were isolated and identified according to the guidelines of the International Standardization Organization and the World Health Organization. The antibiotics susceptibilities were tested using the recommendations of the Clinical Laboratories Standards Institute. Predictions of emerging resistant bacteria patterns and outbreaks in Sudan were done using logistic regression, forecasting linear equations and in silico simulations models. Results A total of 124 antibiotics resistant Salmonella Typhi strains categorized in 12 average groups were isolated, different patterns of resistance statistically calculated by (y = ax − b. Minimum bactericidal concentration’s predication of resistance was given the exponential trend (y = n ex and the predictive coefficient R2 > 0 < 1 are approximately alike. It was assumed that resistant bacteria occurred with a constant rate of antibiotic doses during the whole experimental period. Thus, the number of sensitive bacteria decreases at the same rate as resistant occur following term to the modified predictive model which solved computationally. Conclusion This study assesses the prediction of multi-drug resistance among S. Typhi isolates by applying low cost materials and simple statistical methods suitable for the most frequently used antibiotics as typhoid empirical therapy. Therefore, bacterial surveillance systems should be implemented to present data on the aetiology and current

Trends in food safety standards and regulation implications for developing countries

OpenAIRE

Caswell, Julie A.

2003-01-01

"Food safety is affected by the decisions of producers, processors, distributors, food service operators, and consumers, as well as by government regulations. In developed countries, the demand for higher levels of food safety has led to the implementation of regulatory programs that address more types of safety-related attributes (such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), microbial pathogens, environmental contaminants, and animal drug and pesticide residues) and impose stricter standa...

Predicting Drug Safety and Communicating Risk: Benefits of a Bayesian Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazic, Stanley E; Edmunds, Nicholas; Pollard, Christopher E

2018-03-01

Drug toxicity is a major source of attrition in drug discovery and development. Pharmaceutical companies routinely use preclinical data to predict clinical outcomes and continue to invest in new assays to improve predictions. However, there are many open questions about how to make the best use of available data, combine diverse data, quantify risk, and communicate risk and uncertainty to enable good decisions. The costs of suboptimal decisions are clear: resources are wasted and patients may be put at risk. We argue that Bayesian methods provide answers to all of these problems and use hERG-mediated QT prolongation as a case study. Benefits of Bayesian machine learning models include intuitive probabilistic statements of risk that incorporate all sources of uncertainty, the option to include diverse data and external information, and visualizations that have a clear link between the output from a statistical model and what this means for risk. Furthermore, Bayesian methods are easy to use with modern software, making their adoption for safety screening straightforward. We include R and Python code to encourage the adoption of these methods.

Prediction of Golden Time for Recovering the Safety Injection System in Severe LOCA Circumstances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Kim, Dong Young; Choi, Geon Pil; Back, Ju Hyun; Na, Man Gyun

2015-01-01

In this study, the core uncovery and RV failure according to LOCA break sizes were analyzed by using the MAAP4 code when safety injection system (SIS) was not operating normally. We predicted the golden time of SIS recovery for accomplishing the reactor cold shutdown and preventing RV failure. MAAP4 code was used for severe accident analysis. The LOCA simulations were performed with break size in order to predict the golden time to recovery SIS. We predicted the golden time according to the SIS operation cases through the simulation of OPR1000. When LOCA occurred, the normal operation of SIS is very important in maintaining the integrity of NPPs. However if the SIS does not work or its actuation is delayed due to failure of the equipment, the DBA will lead to a severe accident. In this study, accident situations that SIS does not work normally were assumed and a number of MAAP4 code simulations were conducted. In addition, core uncovery time and RV failure time were predicted. If the recovery time of SIS for accident recovery is predicted, the core will not be exposed through appropriate action

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): An Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, Lisa

2014-01-01

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a potential off-nominal atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. The software and methodology have been validated against actual flights, telemetry data, and validated software, and safety/risk analyses were performed for various programs using SPEAD. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, validation, and application of the SPEAD analysis tool.

Renal Resistance Trend During Hypothermic Machine Perfusion Is More Predictive of Postoperative Outcome Than Biopsy Score: Preliminary Experience in 35 Consecutive Kidney Transplantations.

Science.gov (United States)

Bissolati, Massimiliano; Gazzetta, Paolo Giovanni; Caldara, Rossana; Guarneri, Giovanni; Adamenko, Olga; Giannone, Fabio; Mazza, Michele; Maggi, Giulia; Tomanin, Deborah; Rosati, Riccardo; Secchi, Antonio; Socci, Carlo

2018-03-30

Hypothermic machine perfusion (HPM) grants a better postoperative outcome in transplantation of organs procured from extended criteria donors (ECDs) and donors after cardiac death (DCD). So far, the only available parameter for outcome prediction concerning those organs is pretransplant biopsy score. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether renal resistance (RR) trend during HPM may be used as a predictive marker for post-transplantation outcome. From December 2015 to present, HMP has been systematically applied to all organs from ECDs and DCD. All grafts underwent pretransplantation biopsy evaluation using Karpinski's histological score. Only organs that reached RR value ≤1.0 within 3 hours of perfusion were transplanted. Single kidney transplantation (SKT) or double kidney transplantation (DKT) were performed according to biopsy score results. Sixty-five HMPs were performed (58 from ECDs and 7 from DCD/ECMO donors). Fifteen kidneys were insufficiently reconditioned (RR > 1) and were therefore discarded. Forty-nine kidneys were transplanted, divided between 21 SKT and 14 DKT. Overall primary nonfunction (PNF) and delayed graft function (DGF) rate were 2.9 and 17.1%, respectively. DGF were more common in kidneys from DCD (67 vs. 7%; P = 0.004). Biopsy score did not correlate with PNF/DGF rate (P = 0.870) and postoperative creatinine trend (P = 0.796). Recipients of kidneys that reached RR ≤ 1.0 within 1 hour of HMP had a lower PNF/DGF rate (11 vs. 44%; P = 0.033) and faster serum creatinine decrease (POD10 creatinine: 1.79 mg/dL vs. 4.33 mg/dL; P = 0.019). RR trend is more predictive of post-transplantation outcome than biopsy score. Hence, RR trend should be taken into account in the pretransplantation evaluation of the organs. © 2018 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

Strategy to safety grade systems replacements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stimler, M.; Sullivan, K.E.; Trebincevic, I.

1993-01-01

The introduction of digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants is characterized by the need to satisfy the requirements of safety, reliability and man-machine ergonomics. Today digital instrumentation and control systems meet these requirements and the trend in Europe is towards full digital based nuclear power plant control systems. This paper describes Siemens (KWU) experience in nuclear power plants and development in trends within Europe. Topics which are the subject of major concern to NPP operators addressed in this paper are: human performance factors - man-machine interface; operating philosophy; safety, availability and reliability. Other aspects addressed are: Siemens open-quotes defense in depthclose quotes concept, description of Siemens digital I ampersand C systems, safety requirements and systems, I ampersand C qualification, control room ergonomics, information systems and retrofitting experience

Nursing education trends: future implications and predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Valiga, Theresa M Terry

2012-12-01

This article examines current trends in nursing education and proposes numerous transformations needed to ensure that programs are relevant, fully engage learners, reflect evidence-based teaching practices, and are innovative. Such program characteristics are essential if we are to graduate nurses who can practice effectively in today's complex, ambiguous, ever-changing health care environments and who are prepared to practice in and, indeed, shape tomorrow's unknown practice environments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Functional Safety Specification of Communication Profile PROFIsafe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Rofar

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Paper maps the trends in area of safety-related communication within PROFIBUS and PROFINET industry networks. There are analyses safety measures and Fail-safe parameters of PROFIsafe profile in version V2 and their localisation in Safety Communication Layer SCL, which guarantees Safety Integrity Level SIL according to standard IEC 61508. The last chapter analyses the reaction in the event of fault during transmission of messages.

Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

Science.gov (United States)

Schick, Andreas; Miller, Kathleen L; Lanthier, Michael; Dal Pan, Gerald; Nardinelli, Clark

2017-06-01

An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post

Safety behavior: Job demands, job resources, and perceived management commitment to safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansez, Isabelle; Chmiel, Nik

2010-07-01

The job demands-resources model posits that job demands and resources influence outcomes through job strain and work engagement processes. We test whether the model can be extended to effort-related "routine" safety violations and "situational" safety violations provoked by the organization. In addition we test more directly the involvement of job strain than previous studies which have used burnout measures. Structural equation modeling provided, for the first time, evidence of predicted relationships between job strain and "routine" violations and work engagement with "routine" and "situational" violations, thereby supporting the extension of the job demands-resources model to safety behaviors. In addition our results showed that a key safety-specific construct 'perceived management commitment to safety' added to the explanatory power of the job demands-resources model. A predicted path from job resources to perceived management commitment to safety was highly significant, supporting the view that job resources can influence safety behavior through both general motivational involvement in work (work engagement) and through safety-specific processes.

Predicting Rehabilitation Success Rate Trends among Ethnic Minorities Served by State Vocational Rehabilitation Agencies: A National Time Series Forecast Model Demonstration Study

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Corey L.; Wang, Ningning; Washington, Janique Tynez

2017-01-01

Purpose: This study assessed and demonstrated the efficacy of two select empirical forecast models (i.e., autoregressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] model vs. grey model [GM]) in accurately predicting state vocational rehabilitation agency (SVRA) rehabilitation success rate trends across six different racial and ethnic population cohorts…

ADSA Foundation Scholar Award: Trends in culture-independent methods for assessing dairy food quality and safety: emerging metagenomic tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeung, Marie

2012-12-01

Enhancing the quality and safety of dairy food is critical to maintaining the competitiveness of dairy products in the food and beverage market and in reinforcing consumer confidence in the dairy industry. Raw milk quality has a significant effect on finished product quality. Several microbial groups found in raw milk have been shown to adversely affect the shelf life of pasteurized milk. Current microbiological criteria used to define milk quality are based primarily on culture-dependent methods, some of which are perceived to lack the desired sensitivity and specificity. To supplement traditional methods, culture-independent methods are increasingly being used to identify specific species or microbial groups, and to detect indicator genes or proteins in raw milk or dairy products. Some molecular subtyping techniques have been developed to track the transmission of microbes in dairy environments. The burgeoning "-omics" technologies offer new and exciting opportunities to enhance our understanding of food quality and safety in relation to microbes. Metagenomics has the potential to characterize microbial diversity, detect nonculturable microbes, and identify unique sequences or other factors associated with dairy product quality and safety. In this review, fluid milk will be used as the primary example to examine the adequacy and validity of conventional methods, the current trend of culture-independent methods, and the potential applications of metagenomics in dairy food research. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

FASHION TREND FOR A SILHOUETTE: BALENCIAGA CASE

OpenAIRE

ERTÜRK, Nilay; özüdoğru, şakir

2014-01-01

Fashion, in broad and accepted definition, is any temporary preference or a temporary new thing in any area of human life, which prevails for a certain period of time. The issue of how fashionable products would look like in a particular season is discussed under the concept of fashion trends. The main purpose of this study is to discuss the concept of fashion trends and the studies on predictions in fashion trends, to conduct a sample trend survey for a silhouette and observe whether or not ...

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2007-01-01

based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

Improving safety culture through the health and safety organization: a case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nielsen, Kent J

2014-02-01

International research indicates that internal health and safety organizations (HSO) and health and safety committees (HSC) do not have the intended impact on companies' safety performance. The aim of this case study at an industrial plant was to test whether the HSO can improve company safety culture by creating more and better safety-related interactions both within the HSO and between HSO members and the shop-floor. A quasi-experimental single case study design based on action research with both quantitative and qualitative measures was used. Based on baseline mapping of safety culture and the efficiency of the HSO three developmental processes were started aimed at the HSC, the whole HSO, and the safety representatives, respectively. Results at follow-up indicated a marked improvement in HSO performance, interaction patterns concerning safety, safety culture indicators, and a changed trend in injury rates. These improvements are interpreted as cultural change because an organizational double-loop learning process leading to modification of the basic assumptions could be identified. The study provides evidence that the HSO can improve company safety culture by focusing on safety-related interactions. © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council.

Effectiveness of HBV vaccination in infants and prediction of HBV prevalence trend under new vaccination plan: findings of a large-scale investigation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi-gui Yang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV infection remains a severe public health problem. Investigating its prevalence and trends is essential to prevention. METHODS: To evaluate the effectiveness of HBV vaccination under the 1992 Intervention Program for infants and predicted HBV prevalence trends under the 2011 Program for all ages. We conducted a community-based investigation of 761,544 residents of 12 counties in Zhejiang Province selected according to their location, population density, and economic development. The HBV prevalence trends were predicted by a time-shifting approach. HBV surface antigen (HBsAg and alanine amino transferase (ALT were determined. RESULTS: Of the 761,544 persons screened for HBsAg, 54,132 were positive (adjusted carrier rate 6.13%; 9,455 had both elevated ALT and a positive HBsAg test (standardized rate 1.18%. The standardized HBsAg carrier rate for persons aged ≤20 years was 1.51%. Key factors influencing HBV infection were sex, age, family history, drinking, smoking, employment as a migrant worker, and occupation. With the vaccination program implemented in 2011, we predict that by 2020, the HBsAg carrier rate will be 5.27% and that for individuals aged ≤34 years will reach the 2% upper limit of low prevalence according to the WHO criteria, with a standardized rate of 1.86%. CONCLUSIONS: The national HBV vaccination program for infants implemented in 1992 has greatly reduced the prevalence of HBV infection. The 2011 program is likely to reduce HBV infection in Zhejiang Province to a low moderate prevalence, and perinatal transmission is expected to be controlled by 2020.

Predicting fatigue and psychophysiological test performance from speech for safety critical environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khan Richard Baykaner

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Automatic systems for estimating operator fatigue have application in safety-critical environments. A system which could estimate level of fatigue from speech would have application in domains where operators engage in regular verbal communication as part of their duties. Previous studies on the prediction of fatigue from speech have been limited because of their reliance on subjective ratings and because they lack comparison to other methods for assessing fatigue. In this paper we present an analysis of voice recordings and psychophysiological test scores collected from seven aerospace personnel during a training task in which they remained awake for 60 hours. We show that voice features and test scores are affected by both the total time spent awake and the time position within each subject’s circadian cycle. However, we show that time spent awake and time of day information are poor predictors of the test results; while voice features can give good predictions of the psychophysiological test scores and sleep latency. Mean absolute errors of prediction are possible within about 17.5% for sleep latency and 5-12% for test scores. We discuss the implications for the use of voice as a means to monitor the effects of fatigue on cognitive performance in practical applications.

Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

Science.gov (United States)

Kokol, Peter

2017-07-01

Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians. The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis. The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies. Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.

Patterns and Trends of Liver Cancer Incidence Rates in Eastern and Southeastern Asian Countries (1983-2007) and Predictions to 2030.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jie; Yang, Shigui; Xu, Kaijin; Ding, Cheng; Zhou, Yuqing; Fu, Xiaofang; Li, Yiping; Deng, Min; Wang, Chencheng; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Li, Lanjuan

2018-05-01

We examined temporal trends in liver cancer incidence rates overall and by histological type from 1983 through 2007. We predict trends in liver cancer incidence rates through 2030 for selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. Data on yearly liver cancer incident cases by age group and sex were drawn from 6 major selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries or regions with cancer registries available in the CI5plus database, including China, Japan, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR), the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. We also analyzed data for the United States and Australia for comparative purposes. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated and plotted from 1983 through 2007. Numbers of new cases and incidence rates were predicted through 2030 by fitting and extrapolating age-period-cohort models. The incidence rates of liver cancer have been decreasing, and decreases will continue in all selected Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, except for Thailand, whose liver cancer incidence rate will increase due to the increasing incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas. Even though the incidence rates of liver cancer are predicted to decrease in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries, the burden, in terms of new cases, will continue to increase because of population growth and aging. Based on an analysis of data from cancer registries from Asian countries, incidence rates of liver cancer are expected to decrease through 2030 in most Eastern and Southeastern Asian countries. However, in Thailand, the incidence rate of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas is predicted to increase, so health education programs are necessary. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Progress in design, research and development and testing of safety systems for advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-04-01

The meeting covered the following topics: Developments in design of safety-related heat removal components and systems for advanced water cooled reactors; status of test programmes on heat removal components and systems of new designs; range of validity and extrapolation of test results for the qualification of design/licensing computer models and codes for advanced water cooled reactors; future needs and trends in testing of safety systems for advanced water cooled reactors. Tests of heat removal safety systems have been conducted by various groups supporting the design, testing and certification of advanced water cooled reactors. The Technical Committee concluded that the reported test results generally confirm the predicted performance features of the advanced designs. Refs, figs, tabs

Progress in design, research and development and testing of safety systems for advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-04-01

The meeting covered the following topics: Developments in design of safety-related heat removal components and systems for advanced water cooled reactors; status of test programmes on heat removal components and systems of new designs; range of validity and extrapolation of test results for the qualification of design/licensing computer models and codes for advanced water cooled reactors; future needs and trends in testing of safety systems for advanced water cooled reactors. Tests of heat removal safety systems have been conducted by various groups supporting the design, testing and certification of advanced water cooled reactors. The Technical Committee concluded that the reported test results generally confirm the predicted performance features of the advanced designs. Refs, figs, tabs.

Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2009

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.; Oelgaard, P.L.; Kampmann, D.; Nystrup, P.E.; Thorlaksen, B.

2010-05-01

The report is the seventh report in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is written in collaboration between Risoe DTU and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2009 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development, safety related events, international relations, conflicts and the European safety directive. (LN)

Visumax femtolasik versus Moria M2 microkeratome in mild to moderate myopia: efficacy, safety, predictability, aberrometric changes and flap thickness predictability.

Science.gov (United States)

Torky, Magda A; Al Zafiri, Yousif A; Khattab, Abeer M; Farag, Rania K; Awad, Eman A

2017-07-17

This is an interventional prospective clinical study which was conducted to evaluate the efficacy, safety, predictability, ocular aberrations, and flap thickness predictability of Visumax femtosecond laser (FSL) compared to Moria M2 microkeratome (MK) in mild to moderate myopia. This study included 60 eyes who were divided into two groups. Thirty eyes in group (I) in which the flap was created with Visumax FSL, while in group II (30 eyes) the Moria M2 MK was used. Keratometric, refractive, and aberrometric measurements were compared preoperatively and 3 months postoperatively. The intraoperative subtraction pachymetry (the SP 100 Handy pachymeter (Tomey, Nagoya, Japan) was used for preoperative pachymetry and flap thickness measurement. No significant difference was found between the two groups in regards to postoperative manifest sphere, spherical equivalent, astigmatism, safety indices nor ocular aberrations. Twenty six eyes (86.6%) in group I and 23 eyes in group II (76.6%) were within ±0.5D of the intended correction and 23 eyes (76.6%) in group I and 15 eyes in group II (50%) were within ±0.25D of the intended correction. In group I, the mean postoperative actual flap thickness was 100.12 ± 16.1 μm (81 to 122 μm), while in group II, it was 104.6 ± 20.1 μm (62 to 155 μm). The difference was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Both Visumax and Moria M2 MK are safe and effective in treating myopia with no statistically significant difference in induction of ocular aberrations but with potential advantage for Visumax regarding predictability. More accurate flap thickness is achieved with Visumax femtolasik. This study was retrospectively registered on 19/6/2017. Trial registration number NCT03193411 , clinicalTrials.gov .

The Human Bathtub: Safety and Risk Predictions Including the Dynamic Probability of Operator Errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duffey, Romney B.; Saull, John W.

2006-01-01

Reactor safety and risk are dominated by the potential and major contribution for human error in the design, operation, control, management, regulation and maintenance of the plant, and hence to all accidents. Given the possibility of accidents and errors, now we need to determine the outcome (error) probability, or the chance of failure. Conventionally, reliability engineering is associated with the failure rate of components, or systems, or mechanisms, not of human beings in and interacting with a technological system. The probability of failure requires a prior knowledge of the total number of outcomes, which for any predictive purposes we do not know or have. Analysis of failure rates due to human error and the rate of learning allow a new determination of the dynamic human error rate in technological systems, consistent with and derived from the available world data. The basis for the analysis is the 'learning hypothesis' that humans learn from experience, and consequently the accumulated experience defines the failure rate. A new 'best' equation has been derived for the human error, outcome or failure rate, which allows for calculation and prediction of the probability of human error. We also provide comparisons to the empirical Weibull parameter fitting used in and by conventional reliability engineering and probabilistic safety analysis methods. These new analyses show that arbitrary Weibull fitting parameters and typical empirical hazard function techniques cannot be used to predict the dynamics of human errors and outcomes in the presence of learning. Comparisons of these new insights show agreement with human error data from the world's commercial airlines, the two shuttle failures, and from nuclear plant operator actions and transient control behavior observed in transients in both plants and simulators. The results demonstrate that the human error probability (HEP) is dynamic, and that it may be predicted using the learning hypothesis and the minimum

Nuclear safety review for the year 2001

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-07-01

The Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2001 reports on worldwide efforts to strengthen nuclear and radiation safety, including radioactive waste safety. It is in three parts. Part 1 describes those events in 2001 that have, or may have, significance for nuclear, radiation and waste safety worldwide. It includes developments such as new initiatives in international cooperation, events of safety significance and events that may be indicative of trends in safety. Part 2 describes some of the IAEA's efforts to strengthen international co-operation in nuclear, radiation and waste safety during 2001. It covers legally binding international agreements, non-binding safety standards, and provisions for the application of safety standards. This is done in a very brief manner, because these issues are addressed in more detail in the Agency's Annual Report for 2001. Part 3 presents a brief look ahead to some issues that are likely to be prominent in the coming year(s). The topics covered were selected by the IAEA Secretariat on the basis of trends observed in recent years, account being taken of planned or expected future developments. A draft of the Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2001 was presented to the March 2002 session of IAEA's Board of Governors. This final version has been prepared taking account of the discussion in the Board. In some places, information has been added to describe developments early in 2002 that were considered pertinent to the discussion of events during 2001

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Brian E.

2013-01-01

both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

Determining quantitative road safety targets by applying statistical prediction techniques and a multi-stage adjustment procedure.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittenberg, P; Sever, K; Knoth, S; Sahin, N; Bondarenko, J

2013-01-01

Due to substantial progress made in road safety in the last ten years, the European Union (EU) renewed the ambitious agreement of halving the number of persons killed on the roads within the next decade. In this paper we develop a method that aims at finding an optimal target for each nation, in terms of being as achievable as possible, and with the cumulative EU target being reached. Targets as an important component in road safety policy are given as reduction rate or as absolute number of road traffic deaths. Determination of these quantitative road safety targets (QRST) is done by a top-down approach, formalized in a multi-stage adjustment procedure. Different QRST are derived under consideration of recent research. The paper presents a method to break the national target further down to regional targets in case of the German Federal States. Generalized linear models are fitted to data in the period 1991-2010. Our model selection procedure chooses various models for the EU and solely log-linear models for the German Federal States. If the proposed targets for the EU Member States are attained, the sum of fatalities should not exceed the total value of 15,465 per year by 2020. Both, the mean level and the range of mortality rates within the EU could be lowered from 28-113 in 2010 to 17-41 per million inhabitants in 2020. This study provides an alternative to the determination of safety targets by political commitments only, taking the history of road fatalities trends and population into consideration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nuclear safety. Improvement programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

In this brochure the improvement programme of nuclear safety of the Mochovce NPP is presented in detail. In 1996, a 'Mochovce NPP Nuclear Safety Improvement Programme' was developed in the frame of unit 1 and 2 completion project. The programme has been compiled as a continuous one, with the aim to reach the highest possible safety level at the time of commissioning and to establish good preconditions for permanent safety improvement in future. Such an approach is in compliance with the world's trends of safety improvement, life-time extension, modernisation and nuclear station power increase. The basic document for development of the 'Programme' is the one titled 'Safety Issues and their Ranking for WWER 440/213 NPP' developed by a group of IAEA experts. The following organisations were selected for solution of the safety measures: EUCOM (Consortium of FRAMATOME, France, and SIEMENS, Germany); SKODA Prague, a.s.; ENERGOPROJEKT Prague, a.s. (EGP); Russian organisations associated in ATOMENERGOEXPORT; VUJE Trnava, a.s

Predicting decadal trends and transient responses of radiocarbon storage and fluxes in a temperate forest soil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. A. Sierra

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Representing the response of soil carbon dynamics to global environmental change requires the incorporation of multiple tools in the development of predictive models. An important tool to construct and test models is the incorporation of bomb radiocarbon in soil organic matter during the past decades. In this manuscript, we combined radiocarbon data and a previously developed empirical model to explore decade-scale soil carbon dynamics in a temperate forest ecosystem at the Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. We evaluated the contribution of different soil C fractions to both total soil CO₂ efflux and microbially respired C. We tested the performance of the model based on measurable soil organic matter fractions against a decade of radiocarbon measurements. The model was then challenged with radiocarbon measurements from a warming and N addition experiment to test multiple hypotheses about the different response of soil C fractions to the experimental manipulations. Our results showed that the empirical model satisfactorily predicts the trends of radiocarbon in litter, density fractions, and respired CO₂ observed over a decade in the soils not subjected to manipulation. However, the model, modified with prescribed relationships for temperature and decomposition rates, predicted most but not all the observations from the field experiment where soil temperatures and nitrogen levels were increased, suggesting that a larger degree of complexity and mechanistic relations need to be added to the model to predict short-term responses and transient dynamics.

Trends in readmission rates for safety net hospitals and non-safety net hospitals in the era of the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program: a retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from 2008 to 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Salerno, Amy M; Horwitz, Leora I; Kwon, Ji Young; Herrin, Jeph; Grady, Jacqueline N; Lin, Zhenqiu; Ross, Joseph S; Bernheim, Susannah M

2017-07-13

To compare trends in readmission rates among safety net and non-safety net hospitals under the US Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP). A retrospective time series analysis using Medicare administrative claims data from January 2008 to June 2015. We examined 3254 US hospitals eligible for penalties under the HRRP, categorised as safety net or non-safety net hospitals based on the hospital's proportion of patients with low socioeconomic status. Admissions for Medicare fee-for-service patients, age ≥65 years, discharged alive, who had a valid five-digit zip code and did not have a principal discharge diagnosis of cancer or psychiatric illness were included, for a total of 52 516 213 index admissions. Mean hospital-level, all-condition, 30-day risk-adjusted standardised unplanned readmission rate, measured quarterly, along with quarterly rate of change, and an interrupted time series examining: April-June 2010, after HRRP was passed, and October-December 2012, after HRRP penalties were implemented. 58.0% (SD 15.3) of safety net hospitals and 17.1% (SD 10.4) of non-safety net hospitals' patients were in the lowest quartile of socioeconomic status. The mean safety net hospital standardised readmission rate declined from 17.0% (SD 3.7) to 13.6% (SD 3.6), whereas the mean non-safety net hospital declined from 15.4% (SD 3.0) to 12.7% (SD 2.5). The absolute difference in rates between safety net and non-safety net hospitals declined from 1.6% (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9) to 0.9% (0.7 to 1.2). The quarterly decline in standardised readmission rates was 0.03 percentage points (95% CI 0.03 to 0.02, preadmission rates for safety net hospitals have decreased more rapidly than those for non-safety net hospitals. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

THE TREND AND DYNAMICSDISTRIBUTION OF THE JAKARTASTOCKEXCHANGE(JSXCOMPOSITE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edi Cahyono

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In thispaperwe discuss the dynamics of the JakartaStock Exchange(JSXComposite.The dynamicsindicatesperformance indicator ofseveral industries inIndonesia.The data ispresented as time series. To predict the dynamicsfrom thedata, however,is still difficult. In general,it is almost impossible to predict suchdynamics for the case of high frequency data. Hence, we do not predict thedynamics. Rather, we seek the trend and the probability density function(pdf.For a ‘small’ periodof time, the pdf isbased on the assumption that the dynamicsis normally distributed. Mathematically speaking, this is a time averaging of data,and in some cases the data is presented in the form of candle sticks. The trend willbe approximated by a higher order polynomial function which is sought byapplying a least square methods. On the other hand, the probability densityfunction of the data within each candle stick is obtained bycomputingstandarddeviation ofthe data with respect to the trend inthe candle stick.

Incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Europe during 1989-2003 and predicted new cases 2005-20: a multicentre prospective registration study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Patterson, Christopher C; Dahlquist, Gisela G; Gyürüs, Eva

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: The incidence of type 1 diabetes in children younger than 15 years is increasing. Prediction of future incidence of this disease will enable adequate fund allocation for delivery of care to be planned. We aimed to establish 15-year incidence trends for childhood type 1 diabetes in Eur...

Development of safety performance indicators for HANARO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jong-Sup; Jung, Hoan-Sung; Ahn, Guk-Hoon; Lee, Kye-Hong; Lim, In-Cheol

2007-01-01

The nuclear facilities need an extensive basis for ensuring their safety. An operating organization should conduct its operation and utilization important to the safety in accordance with approved procedures and regulations. The general aims of a management system for nuclear facilities are to improve the safety performance through a planning, control and supervision of safety related activities and to foster a strong safety culture. The effectiveness of a management system can be monitored and measured to confirm the ability of its processes to achieve the intended safety performance by an assessment of the operational performance. The Operational Safety Performance Indicators, also known as SPI, help an organization define and measure a progress with regard to safety activity goals. The elements of a SPI are quantifiable measurements that reflect the critical success factors of an organizational safety. Since 1995, efforts have been directed towards the elaboration of a framework for the establishment of an operational safety performance indicator program in nuclear power plants (NPP). IAEA-TECDOC-1141, 'Operational safety performance indicators for NPP' attempted to provide a frame work for an identification of performance indicators which have a relationship to the desired safety attributes, and therefore, to a safe plant operation. Three key attributes of a smooth operation, an operation with a low risk, and an operation with a positive safety attitude, were recommended, which are associated with a safe operation. Because these attributes cannot be directly measured, an indicator structure is expanded further until a level of easily quantifiable or directly measurable indicators is identified. The intention of this approach is to use quantitative information provided by the specific indicators and to analyze performance trends relative to established goals. The safety activities in HANARO have been continuously conducted to enhance its safe operation. HANARO

Australian trampoline injury patterns and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Ashby, Karen; Pointer, Sophie; Eager, David; Day, Lesley

2015-10-01

To examine national trampoline injury patterns and trends in the context of improved product safety standards and trampoline design modifications. Review of National Hospital Morbidity data. There were an average 1,737 trampoline injuries reported nationally each year from 2002 to 2011. Both injury frequency and rate grew. Statistically significant rate increases were observed among all age groups, although both are highest among children aged 5-9 years. From 2008/09 there is a possible decreasing trend among the 5-9 age group. Falls predominate and 81% of falls result in fracture. Non-fall injuries increased annually as a proportion of all hospitalised injury although they did not comprise more than 2.4% in any one year. History provides no evidence of an observable effect of voluntary Australian Standards for trampoline safety on population rates for trampoline injury. The major design modification--netted enclosures--could contribute to the risk of injury by leading parents to falsely believe that a netted enclosure eradicates the risk of injury. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to

The use of probabilistic safety assessment based maintenance indicators to increase the availability of safety related systems in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchsteiger, C.

1991-04-01

This work describes the theoretical development of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) based Performance Indicator (PI) model for a comprehensive Maintenance Efficiency Analysis (MEA) and its practical application to past operational history data of a certain Nuclear Power Plant. Plant specific equipment history and maintenance work order data have been collected and analysed using various advanced statistical procedures (nonparametric methods, multivariate analysis) in order to be able to estimate safety system related equipment and maintenance process trends. The main results of such a MEA case study are the trends in the (in)effectiveness of the performance of a selected safety system and its dominant maintenance related causes of its bad (good) equipment performance. Finally, the therefrom gained results are used to propose a new set of safety system based and maintenance related Performance Indicators, including suggestions for a corresponding plant specific maintenance data collection system. (author)

A proposal of safety indicators aggregation to assess the safety management effectiveness of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carvalho, Jose Antonio B.; Saldanha, Pedro L.C. [Comissao Nacional de Energia Nuclear (CNEN), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao-Geral de Reatores e Ciclo Combustivel], e-mail: jantonio@cnen.gov.br, e-mail: saldanha@cnen.gov.br; Melo, Paulo F.F. Frutuoso e [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Programa de Engenharia Nuclear], e-mail: frutuoso@con.ufrj.br

2009-07-01

Safety management has changed with the evolution of management methods, named Quality Systems, moving from Quality Control, where the focus was the product, passing through Quality Assurance, which takes care of the whole manufacturing process and reaching the Total Quality Management, where policies and goals are established. Nowadays, there is a trend towards Management Systems, which integrate all different aspects related to the management of an organization (safety, environment, security, quality, costs and, etc), but it is necessary to have features to establish and assure that safety overrides the remaining aspects. The most usual way to reach this goal is to establish a policy where safety is a priority, but its implementation and the assessment of its effectiveness are no so simple. Nuclear power plants usually have over a hundred safety indicators in many processes dedicated to prevent and detect problems, although a lot of them do not evaluate these indicators in an integrated manner or point out degradation trends of organizational aspects, which can affect the plant safety. This work develops an aggregation of proactive and reactive safety indicators in order to evaluate the effectiveness of nuclear power plant safety management and to detect, at early stages, signs of process degradation or activities used to establish, maintain and assure safety conditions. The aggregation integrates indicators of the usual processes and is based on the manner the management activities have been developed in the last decades, that is: Planning, Doing, Checking and Acting - known as PDCA cycle - plus a fifth element related to the capability of those who perform safety activities. The proposed aggregation is in accordance to Brazilian standards and international recommendations and constitutes a friendly link between the top management level and the daily aspects of the organization. (author)

A proposal of safety indicators aggregation to assess the safety management effectiveness of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carvalho, Jose Antonio B.; Saldanha, Pedro L.C.; Melo, Paulo F.F. Frutuoso e

2009-01-01

Safety management has changed with the evolution of management methods, named Quality Systems, moving from Quality Control, where the focus was the product, passing through Quality Assurance, which takes care of the whole manufacturing process and reaching the Total Quality Management, where policies and goals are established. Nowadays, there is a trend towards Management Systems, which integrate all different aspects related to the management of an organization (safety, environment, security, quality, costs and, etc), but it is necessary to have features to establish and assure that safety overrides the remaining aspects. The most usual way to reach this goal is to establish a policy where safety is a priority, but its implementation and the assessment of its effectiveness are no so simple. Nuclear power plants usually have over a hundred safety indicators in many processes dedicated to prevent and detect problems, although a lot of them do not evaluate these indicators in an integrated manner or point out degradation trends of organizational aspects, which can affect the plant safety. This work develops an aggregation of proactive and reactive safety indicators in order to evaluate the effectiveness of nuclear power plant safety management and to detect, at early stages, signs of process degradation or activities used to establish, maintain and assure safety conditions. The aggregation integrates indicators of the usual processes and is based on the manner the management activities have been developed in the last decades, that is: Planning, Doing, Checking and Acting - known as PDCA cycle - plus a fifth element related to the capability of those who perform safety activities. The proposed aggregation is in accordance to Brazilian standards and international recommendations and constitutes a friendly link between the top management level and the daily aspects of the organization. (author)

Trend and pattern analysis of operational data through cooperation between OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dupuis, M.C.

1989-05-01

This papers deals with trend analyses achieved by NEA/OECD countries to assess operational safety experience. It describes the main features of the incident Reporting System operated by NEA to collect relevant safety events from nuclear power plants. It presents the results of exchange methods within Principal Working Group no 1 in charge of operating experience and human factors; the use of preselected IRS incidents is illustrated by the study of losses of containment functions performed by PWGl; some trends resulting from enlarged international exchanges dealing with operational data are highlighted through two examples: reducing scram frequency and improving technical specifications

Trend and pattern analysis of operational data through cooperation between OECD countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dupuis, M.C.

1990-01-01

This papers deals with trend analyses achieved by NEA/OECD countries to assess operational safety experience. It describes the main features of the Incident Reporting System operated by NEA to collect relevant safety events from nuclear power plants. It presents the results of exchange methods within Principal Working Group n 0 1 in charge of operating experience and human factors; the use of preselected IRS incidents is illustrated by the study of losses of containment functions performed by PWG1; some trends resulting from enlarged international exchanges dealing with operational data are highlighted through two examples: reducing scram frequency and improving technical specifications

Nuclear safety review for the year 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-06-01

The nuclear safety review for the year 2000 reports on worldwide efforts to strengthen nuclear and radiation safety, including radioactive waste safety. It is in three parts: Part 1 describes those events in 2000 that have, or may have, significance for nuclear, radiation and waste safety worldwide. It includes developments such as new initiatives in international cooperation, events of safety significance and events that may be indicative of trends in safety; Part 2 describes some of the IAEA efforts to strengthen international co-operation in nuclear, radiation and waste safety during 2000. It covers legally binding international agreements, non-binding safety standards, and provisions for the application of safety standards. This is done in a very brief manner, because these issues are addressed in more detail in the Agency's Annual Report for 2000; Part 3 presents a brief look ahead to some issues that are likely to be prominent in the coming year(s). The topics covered were selected by the IAEA Secretariat on the basis of trends observed in recent years, account being taken of planned or expected future developments. A draft of the Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2000 was presented to the March 2001 session of the IAEA Board of Governors. This final version has been prepared taking account of the discussion in the Board. In some places, information has been added to describe developments early in 2001 that were considered pertinent to the discussion of events during 2000. In such cases, a note containing the more recent information has been provided in the form of a footnote

Consumer trends and prefences in the demand for food

OpenAIRE

Lappo, Alena; Bjørndal, Trond; Fernandez-Polanco, Jose; Lem, Audun

2013-01-01

The objective of this report is to analyse the major tastes and preferences of consumers in food consumption, as well as expected changes in these over time. We identify five important consumer trends and purchase drivers: food safety and health benefits; corporate social responsibility; production systems and innovations; sustainability; and food origin. For each of these trends we will consider relevant actions that are being implemented by governments, non-governmental organisations (NGOs)...

Research for the safety of existing nuclear facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Teschendorff, Victor; Bruna, Giovanni B.; Gelder, Pieter de

2007-01-01

The essential role of research for maintaining the high safety standard for the existing nuclear installations is outlined in the context of internationally agreed needs. The three co-authoring Technical Safety Organisations are committed to continued safety research, recognising operational experience and new technologies as the main driving forces. The safety margin concept is introduced and new trends in traditional and new areas of safety research are identified. The importance of a sufficient experimental infrastructure and international co-operation in sustainable networks is highlighted. (orig.)

Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu, J.; Kim, J. Y. [Chungnam Nat. Univ., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2006-06-15

FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system.

Reliability analysis of PLC safety equipment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu, J.; Kim, J. Y.

2006-06-01

FMEA analysis for Nuclear Safety Grade PLC, failure rate prediction for nuclear safety grade PLC, sensitivity analysis for components failure rate of nuclear safety grade PLC, unavailability analysis support for nuclear safety system

Perceived organizational support for safety and employee safety voice: the mediating role of coworker support for safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Tucker, Sean; Chmiel, Nik; Turner, Nick; Hershcovis, M Sandy; Stride, Chris B

2008-10-01

In the present study, we modeled 2 sources of safety support (perceived organizational support for safety and perceived coworker support for safety) as predictors of employee safety voice, that is, speaking out in an attempt to change unsafe working conditions. Drawing on social exchange and social impact theories, we hypothesized and tested a mediated model predicting employee safety voice using a cross-sectional survey of urban bus drivers (n = 213) in the United Kingdom. Hierarchical regression analysis showed that perceived coworker support for safety fully mediated the relationship between perceived organizational support for safety and employee safety voice. This study adds to the employee voice literature by evaluating the important role that coworkers can play in encouraging others to speak out about safety issues. Implications for research and practice related to change-oriented safety communication are discussed.

Development of associations and kinetic models for microbiological data to be used in comprehensive food safety prediction software.

Science.gov (United States)

Halder, Amit; Black, D Glenn; Davidson, P Michael; Datta, Ashim

2010-08-01

The objective of this study was to use an existing database of food products and their associated processes, link it with a list of the foodborne pathogenic microorganisms associated with those products and finally identify growth and inactivation kinetic parameters associated with those pathogens. The database was to be used as a part of the development of comprehensive software which could predict food safety and quality for any food product. The main issues in building such a predictive system included selection of predictive models, associations of different food types with pathogens (as determined from outbreak histories), and variability in data from different experiments. More than 1000 data sets from published literature were analyzed and grouped according to microorganisms and food types. Final grouping of data consisted of the 8 most prevalent pathogens for 14 different food groups, covering all of the foods (>7000) listed in the USDA Natl. Nutrient Database. Data for each group were analyzed in terms of 1st-order inactivation, 1st-order growth, and sigmoidal growth models, and their kinetic response for growth and inactivation as a function of temperature were reported. Means and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for prediction equations. The primary advantage in obtaining group-specific kinetic data is the ability to extend microbiological growth and death simulation to a large array of product and process possibilities, while still being reasonably accurate. Such simulation capability could provide vital ''what if'' scenarios for industry, Extension, and academia in food safety.

Young workers’ occupational safety knowledge creation and habits

OpenAIRE

Hejduk, Irena; Tomczyk, Przemysław

2015-01-01

The problem of young workers'safety culture is important because of the unfavorable demographic trend occurring in the European Union and determinants of competitiveness and innovativeness of the economy. The paper presents the concept and the importance of safety culture and goals of the research program, the aim of which is the construction and verification of the model based on the transfer of knowledge regarding the safety and methods of its implementation.Safety culture is a der...

Operational safety at the FFTF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baird, Q.L.; Hagan, J.W.; Seeman, S.E.; Baker, S.M.

1981-02-01

An extensive operational nuclear safety program has been an integral part of the design, startup, and initial operating phases of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF). During the design and construction of the facility, a program of independent safety overviews and analyses assured the provision of responsible safety margins within the plant, protective systems, and engineered safety features for protection of the public, operating staff, and the facility. The program is continuing through surveillance of operations to verify continued adherence to the established operating envelope and for timely identification of any trends potentially adverse to those margins. Experience from operation of FFTF is being utilized in the development of enhanced operational nuclear safety aids for application in follow-on breeder reactor power systems. The commendable plant and personnel safety experiences of FFTF through its startup and ascension to full power demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the FFTF operational nuclear safety program

Safety monitoring in process and control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esparza, V. Jr.; Sebo, D.E.

1984-01-01

Safety Functions provide a method of ensuring the safe operation of any large-scale processing plant. Successful implementation of safety functions requires continuous monitoring of safety function values and trends. Because the volume of information handled by a plant operator occassionally can become overwhelming, attention may be diverted from the primary concern of maintaining plant safety. With this in mind EG and G, Idaho developed various methods and techniques for use in a computerized Safety Function Monitoring System and tested the application of these techniques using a simulated nuclear power plant, the Loss-of-Fluid Test Facility (LOFT) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). This paper presents the methods used in the development of a Safety Function Monitoring System

The useful field of view assessment predicts simulated commercial motor vehicle driving safety.

Science.gov (United States)

McManus, Benjamin; Heaton, Karen; Vance, David E; Stavrinos, Despina

2016-10-02

The Useful Field of View (UFOV) assessment, a measure of visual speed of processing, has been shown to be a predictive measure of motor vehicle collision (MVC) involvement in an older adult population, but it remains unknown whether UFOV predicts commercial motor vehicle (CMV) driving safety during secondary task engagement. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the UFOV assessment predicts simulated MVCs in long-haul CMV drivers. Fifty licensed CMV drivers (Mage = 39.80, SD = 8.38, 98% male, 56% Caucasian) were administered the 3-subtest version of the UFOV assessment, where lower scores measured in milliseconds indicated better performance. CMV drivers completed 4 simulated drives, each spanning approximately a 22.50-mile distance. Four secondary tasks were presented to participants in a counterbalanced order during the drives: (a) no secondary task, (b) cell phone conversation, (c) text messaging interaction, and (d) e-mailing interaction with an on-board dispatch device. The selective attention subtest significantly predicted simulated MVCs regardless of secondary task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC in the simulated drive. The e-mail interaction secondary task significantly predicted simulated MVCs with a 4.14 times greater risk of an MVC compared to the no secondary task condition. Subtest 3, a measure of visual speed of processing, significantly predicted MVCs in the email interaction task. Each 20 ms slower on subtest 3 was associated with a 25% increase in the risk of an MVC during the email interaction task. The UFOV subtest 3 may be a promising measure to identify CMV drivers who may be at risk for MVCs or in need of cognitive training aimed at improving speed of processing. Subtest 3 may also identify CMV drivers who are particularly at risk when engaged in secondary tasks while driving.

A tool for safety evaluations of road improvements.

Science.gov (United States)

Peltola, Harri; Rajamäki, Riikka; Luoma, Juha

2013-11-01

Road safety impact assessments are requested in general, and the directive on road infrastructure safety management makes them compulsory for Member States of the European Union. However, there is no widely used, science-based safety evaluation tool available. We demonstrate a safety evaluation tool called TARVA. It uses EB safety predictions as the basis for selecting locations for implementing road-safety improvements and provides estimates of safety benefits of selected improvements. Comparing different road accident prediction methods, we demonstrate that the most accurate estimates are produced by EB models, followed by simple accident prediction models, the same average number of accidents for every entity and accident record only. Consequently, advanced model-based estimates should be used. Furthermore, we demonstrate regional comparisons that benefit substantially from such tools. Comparisons between districts have revealed significant differences. However, comparisons like these produce useful improvement ideas only after taking into account the differences in road characteristics between areas. Estimates on crash modification factors can be transferred from other countries but their benefit is greatly limited if the number of target accidents is not properly predicted. Our experience suggests that making predictions and evaluations using the same principle and tools will remarkably improve the quality and comparability of safety estimations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating Traffic Control and Safety Hardware Performance Functions into Risk-based Highway Safety Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zongzhi Li

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Traffic control and safety hardware such as traffic signs, lighting, signals, pavement markings, guardrails, barriers, and crash cushions form an important and inseparable part of highway infrastructure affecting safety performance. Significant progress has been made in recent decades to develop safety performance functions and crash modification factors for site-specific crash predictions. However, the existing models and methods lack rigorous treatments of safety impacts of time-deteriorating conditions of traffic control and safety hardware. This study introduces a refined method for computing the Safety Index (SI as a means of crash predictions for a highway segment that incorporates traffic control and safety hardware performance functions into the analysis. The proposed method is applied in a computation experiment using five-year data on nearly two hundred rural and urban highway segments. The root-mean square error (RMSE, Chi-square, Spearman’s rank correlation, and Mann-Whitney U tests are employed for validation.

Safety pharmacology — Current and emerging concepts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamdam, Junnat; Sethu, Swaminathan; Smith, Trevor; Alfirevic, Ana; Alhaidari, Mohammad; Atkinson, Jeffrey; Ayala, Mimieveshiofuo; Box, Helen; Cross, Michael; Delaunois, Annie; Dermody, Ailsa; Govindappa, Karthik; Guillon, Jean-Michel; Jenkins, Rosalind; Kenna, Gerry; Lemmer, Björn; Meecham, Ken; Olayanju, Adedamola; Pestel, Sabine; Rothfuss, Andreas

2013-01-01

Safety pharmacology (SP) is an essential part of the drug development process that aims to identify and predict adverse effects prior to clinical trials. SP studies are described in the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) S7A and S7B guidelines. The core battery and supplemental SP studies evaluate effects of a new chemical entity (NCE) at both anticipated therapeutic and supra-therapeutic exposures on major organ systems, including cardiovascular, central nervous, respiratory, renal and gastrointestinal. This review outlines the current practices and emerging concepts in SP studies including frontloading, parallel assessment of core battery studies, use of non-standard species, biomarkers, and combining toxicology and SP assessments. Integration of the newer approaches to routine SP studies may significantly enhance the scope of SP by refining and providing mechanistic insight to potential adverse effects associated with test compounds. - Highlights: • SP — mandatory non-clinical risk assessments performed during drug development. • SP organ system studies ensure the safety of clinical participants in FiH trials. • Frontloading in SP facilitates lead candidate drug selection. • Emerging trends: integrating SP-Toxicological endpoints; combined core battery tests

Safety pharmacology — Current and emerging concepts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamdam, Junnat; Sethu, Swaminathan; Smith, Trevor; Alfirevic, Ana; Alhaidari, Mohammad [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Atkinson, Jeffrey [Lorraine University Pharmacolor Consultants Nancy PCN (France); Ayala, Mimieveshiofuo; Box, Helen; Cross, Michael [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Delaunois, Annie [UCB Pharma (Belgium); Dermody, Ailsa; Govindappa, Karthik [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Guillon, Jean-Michel [Sanofi-aventis (France); Jenkins, Rosalind [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Kenna, Gerry [Astra-Zeneca (United Kingdom); Lemmer, Björn [Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg (Germany); Meecham, Ken [Huntingdon Life Sciences (United Kingdom); Olayanju, Adedamola [MRC Centre for Drug Safety Science, University of Liverpool (United Kingdom); Pestel, Sabine [Boehringer-Ingelheim (Germany); Rothfuss, Andreas [Roche (Switzerland); and others

2013-12-01

Safety pharmacology (SP) is an essential part of the drug development process that aims to identify and predict adverse effects prior to clinical trials. SP studies are described in the International Conference on Harmonisation (ICH) S7A and S7B guidelines. The core battery and supplemental SP studies evaluate effects of a new chemical entity (NCE) at both anticipated therapeutic and supra-therapeutic exposures on major organ systems, including cardiovascular, central nervous, respiratory, renal and gastrointestinal. This review outlines the current practices and emerging concepts in SP studies including frontloading, parallel assessment of core battery studies, use of non-standard species, biomarkers, and combining toxicology and SP assessments. Integration of the newer approaches to routine SP studies may significantly enhance the scope of SP by refining and providing mechanistic insight to potential adverse effects associated with test compounds. - Highlights: • SP — mandatory non-clinical risk assessments performed during drug development. • SP organ system studies ensure the safety of clinical participants in FiH trials. • Frontloading in SP facilitates lead candidate drug selection. • Emerging trends: integrating SP-Toxicological endpoints; combined core battery tests.

Regulatory assessment of safety culture in nuclear organisations - current trends and challenges

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tronea, M.

2010-01-01

The paper gives an overview of the current practices in the area of regulatory assessment of safety culture in nuclear organisations and of the associated challenges. While the assessment and inspection procedures currently in use by regulatory authorities worldwide are directed primarily at verifying compliance with the licensing basis, there is a recognised need for a more systematic approach to the identification, collection and review of data relevant to the safety culture in licensees' organisations. The paper presents a proposal for using the existing regulatory inspection practices for gathering information relevant to safety culture and for assessing it in an integrated manner. The proposal is based on the latest requirements and guidance issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on management systems for nuclear facilities and activities, particularly as regards the attributes needed for a strong nuclear safety culture. (author)

Radiation Safety and Culture of Prevention in the Use of Radioactive Materials in Industry. Criteria and Trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Truppa, W.A.

2011-01-01

As time goes by and experience is gained, modernization and technological development show the need to implement more complex programs and procedures to ensure a high level of compliance with radiation safety, particularly in those activities in which radioactive material is used in industry. A relevant aspect of present technology is the concern to introduce mechanisms to prevent radiological accidents or incidents, to ensure early detection of failures. This includes systems that either individually or as a whole, increase the level of responsibility of the different disciplines involved, so as to avoid a situation that could lead to loss of control of the facility or part of it. The prevention of an abnormal situation, overexposure of workers or unwanted risks, should be considered in the level of vulnerability of the facility, a concept drawn from international protection systems and which is applied directly in radiation safety. Preventive management, risk communication and proposals for change or improvement along with the detection of risks and training, constitute all the factors contained within prevention policies. Dose limitation, optimization and justification, old tools used for decades, could not be replaced by other modern concepts and criteria. ALARA culture (including performance indicators) should be considered. The atmosphere at work, working under pressure as well as other factors such as quality issues, ethics of prevention, etc. align with this idea of prevention and safety, besides changes in attitude, towards risk prevention (methods, reports, intervention guides, working instructions, and any other helpful tool), are followed by preventive, as well as predictive and corrective maintenance, applied to minimize the dose absorbed by workers. A clear policy of prevention is needed as well as an appropriate level of radiation safety which should be taken into account since the very beginning of the development of a given practice. All these

Radiation safety and culture of prevention in the use of radioactive materials in industry : criteria and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Truppa, Walter Adrian

2008-01-01

As time goes by and experience is gained, modernization and technological development show the need to implement more complex programs and procedures to ensure a high level of compliance with radiation safety, particularly in those activities in which radioactive material is used in industry. A relevant aspect of present technology is the concern to introduce mechanisms to prevent radiological accidents or incidents, to ensure early detection of failures. This includes systems that either individually or as a whole, increase the level of responsibility of the different disciplines involved, so as to avoid a situation that could lead to loss of control of the facility or part of it. The prevention of an abnormal situation, overexposure of workers or unwanted risks, should be considered in the level of vulnerability of the facility, a concept drawn from international protection systems and which is applied directly in radiation safety. Preventive management, risk communication and proposals for change or improvement along with the detection of risks and training, constitute all the factors contained within prevention policies. Dose limitation, optimization and justification, old tools used for decades, could not be replaced by other modern concepts and criteria. ALARA culture (including performance indicators) should be considered. The atmosphere at work, working under pressure as well as other factors such as quality issues, ethics of prevention, etc. align with this idea of prevention and safety, besides changes in attitude, towards risk prevention (methods, reports, intervention guides, working instructions, and any other helpful tool), are followed by preventive, as well as predictive and corrective maintenance, applied to minimize the dose absorbed by workers. A clear policy of prevention is needed as well as an appropriate level of radiation safety which should be taken into account since the very beginning of the development of a given practice. All these

Trends in gender differences in accidents mortality: Relationships to changing gender roles and other societal trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inga Earle

2005-11-01

Full Text Available This study tests five hypotheses concerning trends in gender differences in accidents mortality and accident-related behavior, using data for the US, UK, France, Italy, and Japan, 1950-98. As predicted by the Convergence Hypothesis, gender differences have decreased for amount of driving, motor vehicle accidents mortality, and occupational accidents mortality. However, for many types of accidents mortality, gender differences were stable or increased; these trends often resulted from the differential impact on male and female mortality of general societal trends such as increased illicit drug use or improved health care. Similarly, trends in gender differences in accident-related behavior have shown substantial variation and appear to have been influenced by multiple factors, including gender differences in rates of adoption of different types of innovations.

Development of safety performance indicators of regulatory interest (SAFPER) in Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khatoon, Abida

2002-01-01

Safety performance indicators provide a very useful tool for monitoring operational safety of a nuclear power plant. Utilities in many countries have developed plant specific indicators for the assessment of their performance and safety. Regulators can make use of some of these indicators for their regulatory assessment. In addition to these regulatory bodies in some countries have also developed programs for the formulation of safety performance indicators which are used in monitoring operational safety and regulatory decision making. Realizing its usefulness Directorate of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection (DNSRP-the regulatory body in Pakistan) has also initiated a country specific program for the development of Safety Performance Indicators (SAFPER) based on data provided by the utility and that collected during the course of regulatory inspections. Selected areas of NPP operation to be monitored are: - Significant events; - Safety systems performance; - Barriers integrity; - Environment protection; - Workers radiation safety; and - Emergency Preparedness. One of the objectives of this program is also to monitor the effectiveness of DNSRP regulatory activities. IAEA framework is taken as one of the bases for our program. Safety performance will be assessed on the basis of Performance Indicators and inspection findings. DNSRP program as shown in Appendix includes the indicators in use and under development. It is felt that the term Safety Performance Indicators may be termed as 'SAFPER Indicators' to be used by the Regulators, as it is clear from this presentation that utility safety performance indicators together with the regulatory effectiveness indicators constitute the measure for the adequate safety to the public and the environment. Additional research is still necessary for: - indicator definition for the proposed and under developed indicators; - data collection systems; - thresholds; - trend analysis; - goal setting (benefit from the trend can be

Improved Performance and Safety for High Energy Batteries Through Use of Hazard Anticipation and Capacity Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Atwater, Terrill

1993-01-01

Prediction of the capacity remaining in used high rate, high energy batteries is important information to the user. Knowledge of the capacity remaining in used batteries results in better utilization. This translates into improved readiness and cost savings due to complete, efficient use. High rate batteries, due to their chemical nature, are highly sensitive to misuse (i.e., over discharge or very high rate discharge). Battery failure due to misuse or manufacturing defects could be disastrous. Since high rate, high energy batteries are expensive and energetic, a reliable method of predicting both failures and remaining energy has been actively sought. Due to concerns over safety, the behavior of lithium/sulphur dioxide cells at different temperatures and current drains was examined. The main thrust of this effort was to determine failure conditions for incorporation in hazard anticipation circuitry. In addition, capacity prediction formulas have been developed from test data. A process that performs continuous, real-time hazard anticipation and capacity prediction was developed. The introduction of this process into microchip technology will enable the production of reliable, safe, and efficient high energy batteries.

EFSA and ECDC (European Food Safety Authority and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), 2015. The European Union Summary Report on Trends and Sources of Zoonoses, Zoonotic Agents and Food-borne Outbreaks in 2013

OpenAIRE

Helwigh, Birgitte

2015-01-01

This report of the European Food Safety Authority and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents the results of the zoonoses monitoring activities carried out in 2013 in 32 European countries (28 Member States and four non-Member States). Campylobacter iosis was the most commonly reported zoonosis. After several years of an increasing European Union (EU) trend, the human Campylobacter iosis notification rate has stabilised. In food and animals no EU trends were observed a...

Restaurant Cooking Trends and Increased Risk for Campylobacter Infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Anna K; Rigby, Dan; Burton, Michael; Millman, Caroline; Williams, Nicola J; Jones, Trevor R; Wigley, Paul; O'Brien, Sarah J; Cross, Paul

2016-07-01

In the United Kingdom, outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are increasingly attributed to undercooked chicken livers, yet many recipes, including those of top chefs, advocate short cooking times and serving livers pink. During 2015, we studied preferences of chefs and the public in the United Kingdom and investigated the link between liver rareness and survival of Campylobacter. We used photographs to assess chefs' ability to identify chicken livers meeting safe cooking guidelines. To investigate the microbiological safety of livers chefs preferred to serve, we modeled Campylobacter survival in infected chicken livers cooked to various temperatures. Most chefs correctly identified safely cooked livers but overestimated the public's preference for rareness and thus preferred to serve them more rare. We estimated that 19%-52% of livers served commercially in the United Kingdom fail to reach 70°C and that predicted Campylobacter survival rates are 48%-98%. These findings indicate that cooking trends are linked to increasing Campylobacter infections.

Identifying trends in climate: an application to the cenozoic

Science.gov (United States)

Richards, Gordon R.

1998-05-01

The recent literature on trending in climate has raised several issues, whether trends should be modeled as deterministic or stochastic, whether trends are nonlinear, and the relative merits of statistical models versus models based on physics. This article models trending since the late Cretaceous. This 68 million-year interval is selected because the reliability of tests for trending is critically dependent on the length of time spanned by the data. Two main hypotheses are tested, that the trend has been caused primarily by CO2 forcing, and that it reflects a variety of forcing factors which can be approximated by statistical methods. The CO2 data is obtained from model simulations. Several widely-used statistical models are found to be inadequate. ARIMA methods parameterize too much of the short-term variation, and do not identify low frequency movements. Further, the unit root in the ARIMA process does not predict the long-term path of temperature. Spectral methods also have little ability to predict temperature at long horizons. Instead, the statistical trend is estimated using a nonlinear smoothing filter. Both of these paradigms make it possible to model climate as a cointegrated process, in which temperature can wander quite far from the trend path in the intermediate term, but converges back over longer horizons. Comparing the forecasting properties of the two trend models demonstrates that the optimal forecasting model includes CO2 forcing and a parametric representation of the nonlinear variability in climate.

The use of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) based maintenance indicators to increase the availability of safety related systems in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchsteiger, C.

1991-04-01

This work describes the theoretical development of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) based Performance Indicator (PI) model for a comprehensive Maintenance Efficiency Analysis (MEA) and its practical application to past operational history data of a certain nuclear power plant. Plant specific equipment history and maintenance work on data have been collected and analysed using various advanced statistical procedures (nonparametric methods, multivariate analysis in order to be able to estimate safety system related equipment and maintenance process trends. The main results of such a MEA case study are the trends in the (in)effectiveness of the performance of a selected safety system and its dominant components as well as the detection of the dominant maintenance related causes of its bad (good) equipment performance. Finally, the therefrom gained results are used to propose a new set of safety system-based and maintenance-related performance indicators, including suggestions for a corresponding plant specific maintenance data collection system. (author)

Improving patient safety culture in Saudi Arabia (2012-2015): trending, improvement and benchmarking.

Science.gov (United States)

Alswat, Khalid; Abdalla, Rawia Ahmad Mustafa; Titi, Maher Abdelraheim; Bakash, Maram; Mehmood, Faiza; Zubairi, Beena; Jamal, Diana; El-Jardali, Fadi

2017-08-02

Measuring patient safety culture can provide insight into areas for improvement and help monitor changes over time. This study details the findings of a re-assessment of patient safety culture in a multi-site Medical City in Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Results were compared to an earlier assessment conducted in 2012 and benchmarked with regional and international studies. Such assessments can provide hospital leadership with insight on how their hospital is performing on patient safety culture composites as a result of quality improvement plans. This paper also explored the association between patient safety culture predictors and patient safety grade, perception of patient safety, frequency of events reported and number of events reported. We utilized a customized version of the patient safety culture survey developed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The Medical City is a tertiary care teaching facility composed of two sites (total capacity of 904 beds). Data was analyzed using SPSS 24 at a significance level of 0.05. A t-Test was used to compare results from the 2012 survey to that conducted in 2015. Two adopted Generalized Estimating Equations in addition to two linear models were used to assess the association between composites and patient safety culture outcomes. Results were also benchmarked against similar initiatives in Lebanon, Palestine and USA. Areas of strength in 2015 included Teamwork within units, and Organizational Learning-Continuous Improvement; areas requiring improvement included Non-Punitive Response to Error, and Staffing. Comparing results to the 2012 survey revealed improvement on some areas but non-punitive response to error and Staffing remained the lowest scoring composites in 2015. Regression highlighted significant association between managerial support, organizational learning and feedback and improved survey outcomes. Comparison to international benchmarks revealed that the hospital is performing at or

Organizational safety climate and supervisor safety enforcement: Multilevel explorations of the causes of accident underreporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Probst, Tahira M

2015-11-01

According to national surveillance statistics, over 3 million employees are injured each year; yet, research indicates that these may be substantial underestimates of the true prevalence. The purpose of the current project was to empirically test the hypothesis that organizational safety climate and transactional supervisor safety leadership would predict the extent to which accidents go unreported by employees. Using hierarchical linear modeling and survey data collected from 1,238 employees in 33 organizations, employee-level supervisor safety enforcement behaviors (and to a less consistent extent, organizational-level safety climate) predicted employee accident underreporting. There was also a significant cross-level interaction, such that the effect of supervisor enforcement on underreporting was attenuated in organizations with a positive safety climate. These results may benefit human resources and safety professionals by pinpointing methods of increasing the accuracy of accident reporting, reducing actual safety incidents, and reducing the costs to individuals and organizations that result from underreporting. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Recent trends in air transport sustainibility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benito, A.; Alonso, G.

2016-07-01

The target of this paper is to analyse the main elements of Air Transport sustainability, studying their evolution during the last years and establishing the future prevalent trends, which might be modified by the application of the adequate policies. Air Transport sustainability is considered as integrated by five basic characteristics: physical accessibility, economic affordability, safety, security and environmental impact. Each one of them has its own influence on the development of this transportation mode and all of them are required in order to achieve a sustainable development. After defining the structural elements of the five characteristics and the corresponding quantitative indicators, the paper studies the recent evolution of such indicators and extrapolates the most likely future trends, having taken into account the most relevant limitations presently existent or potentially appearing in the near future. The most important policies being presently studied (future aircraft designs, infrastructure developments, potential safety and security new rules and tentative environmental action programs) are evaluated, considering the potential repercussions on sustainability progress. Some combinations of them are suggested as the most efficient alternatives for preserving the sustainable development of XXI century air transport. (Author)

The mathematics of cost trend forecasting; Der Lernkurve folgen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haslinger, Rupert

2010-05-07

The relation of the number of products produced to the production cost can be described by mathematical models. Learning curves enable forecasting of cost trends. But is this just theory, or do these forecasts really predict cost trends of photovoltaic systems in Germany. (orig.)

Safety implications of diesel generator aging management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoopingarner, K.R.

1989-01-01

Significant safety improvements can be achieved in diesel-generator management related to aging, testing, and other important regulatory concerns. This paper reports on the progress of aging research related to nuclear service diesel generators, which developed data and information supporting the recommended safety improvements. The key to diesel-generator safety improvements is the development of a new balanced approach where testing, inspections, monitoring and trending, training, and maintenance all have appropriate importance. Safety improvement is projected in a management program that concurrently achieves three goals: first, the reduction of the fast-start stressor by regulatory and utility actions; second, the establishment of more appropriate testing and trending procedures; third, the adoption and use of reliability-centered maintenance activities. This paper describes the recommended safety improvements and the positive role of utility management in the process and outlines a new recommended regulatory approach. Diesel generator aging and wear is the subject of research sponsored by the Nuclear Plant Aging Research (NPAR) Program under the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research. The research was conducted by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), which is operated for the US Department of Energy by Battelle Memorial Institute. 4 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

Nuclear power: Siting and safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Openshaw, S.

1986-01-01

By 2030, half, or even two-thirds, of all electricity may be generated by nuclear power. Major reactor accidents are still expected to be rare occurrences, but nuclear safety is largely a matter of faith. Terrorist attacks, sabotage, and human error could cause a significant accident. Reactor siting can offer an additional, design-independent margin of safety. Remote geographical sites for new plants would minimize health risks, protect the industry from negative changes in public opinion concerning nuclear energy, and improve long-term public acceptance of nuclear power. U.K. siting practices usually do not consider the contribution to safety that could be obtained from remote sites. This book discusses the present trends of siting policies of nuclear power and their design-independent margin of safety

Regional aviation safety organisations : enhancing air transport safety through regional cooperation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ratajczyk, Mikołaj Andrzej

2014-01-01

Aviation safety is of global concern. Yet 43% of countries worldwide lack the expertise and administrative capacity to ensure effective safety oversight of the aviation activities for which they are responsible under international law. With air traffic predicted to double in the next 15 years and

Site safety requirements for high level waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Weiming; Wang Ju

2006-01-01

This paper outlines the content, status and trend of site safety requirements of International Atomic Energy Agency, America, France, Sweden, Finland and Japan. Site safety requirements are usually represented as advantageous vis-a-vis disadvantagous conditions, and potential advantage vis-a-vis disadvantage conditions, respectively in aspects of geohydrology, geochemistry, lithology, climate and human intrusion etc. Study framework and steps of site safety requirements for China are discussed under the view of systems science. (authors)

Changing Trends in Modeling Mobility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aarti Munjal

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A phenomenal increase in the number of wireless devices has led to the evolution of several interesting and challenging research problems in opportunistic networks. For example, the random waypoint mobility model, an early, popular effort to model mobility, involves generating random movement patterns. Previous research efforts, however, validate that movement patterns are not random; instead, human mobility is predictable to some extent. Since the performance of a routing protocol in an opportunistic network is greatly improved if the movement patterns of mobile users can be somewhat predicted in advance, several research attempts have been made to understand human mobility. The solutions developed use our understanding of movement patterns to predict the future contact probability for mobile nodes. In this work, we summarize the changing trends in modeling human mobility as random movements to the current research efforts that model human walks in a more predictable manner. Mobility patterns significantly affect the performance of a routing protocol. Thus, the changing trend in modeling mobility has led to several changes in developing routing protocols for opportunistic networks. For example, the simplest opportunistic routing protocol forwards a received packet to a randomly selected neighbor. With predictable mobility, however, routing protocols can use the expected contact information between a pair of mobile nodes in making forwarding decisions. In this work, we also describe the previous and current research efforts in developing routing protocols for opportunistic networks.

Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Hake, Anna; Pfeifer, Nico

2017-10-01

Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient's viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population.

Reliability prediction for the vehicles equipped with advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS and passive safety systems (PSS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balbir S. Dhillon

2012-10-01

Full Text Available The human error has been reported as a major root cause in road accidents in today’s world. The human as a driver in road vehicles composed of human, mechanical and electrical components is constantly exposed to changing surroundings (e.g., road conditions, environmentwhich deteriorate the driver’s capacities leading to a potential accident. The auto industries and transportation authorities have realized that similar to other complex and safety sensitive transportation systems, the road vehicles need to rely on both advanced technologies (i.e., Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS and Passive Safety Systems (PSS (e.g.,, seatbelts, airbags in order to mitigate the risk of accidents and casualties. In this study, the advantages and disadvantages of ADAS as active safety systems as well as passive safety systems in road vehicles have been discussed. Also, this study proposes models that analyze the interactions between human as a driver and ADAS Warning and Crash Avoidance Systems and PSS in the design of vehicles. Thereafter, the mathematical models have been developed to make reliability prediction at any given time on the road transportation for vehicles equipped with ADAS and PSS. Finally, the implications of this study in the improvement of vehicle designs and prevention of casualties are discussed.

Transparency in Nuclear Regulation: Trends and Future Prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Kim, Seong Ho

2007-01-01

Recently, improving transparency (or openness) has been one of important issues related to nuclear safety worldwide. As for the transparency in nuclear regulatory activities in Korea, openness has been declared as one of five principles of the nuclear regulation in the 'nuclear safety policy statement' announced in 1994. Transparency has been discussed and emphasized in various international meetings such as the Convention on Nuclear Safety, OECD/NEA meetings, etc. For example, Working Group on Public Communication of nuclear regulatory organizations (WGPC) of the OECD/NEA/CNRA held a workshop on 'the transparency of nuclear regulatory activities' in May 2007 in Tokyo, Japan. In this paper, definition of transparency and its international trends ranging from a general administration to nuclear safety activities are discussed based on the results of meetings and workshops held so far. Measures for improvement associated with transparency are also proposed

The impact of WASH-1400 on reactor safety evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanguy, P.Y.

1976-01-01

Trends in reactor safety evaluation in France following the publication of WASH-1400 (the Rasmussen Report) are presented. What is called 'the meteorite case' is first schematically presented as follows: WASH-1400 shows nuclear risk equivalent to meteorite risk and reasonable corrections cannot make many orders of magnitude, consequently present safety rules are adequate. The very impact of WASH-1400 on safety approach is then discussed as for: assistance to deterministic safety analysis, introduction of probabilistic safety criteria, acceptable level of risk, and the use of results in research and reactor operating experience

Real-time on-line space research laboratory environment monitoring with off-line trend and prediction analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Jules, Kenol; Lin, Paul P.

2007-06-01

With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked, processed and analyzed daily on the ground on a continuous basis for the space station reduced gravity environment characterization, the vehicle design requirements verification and science data collection. To help understand the impact of the unique spacecraft environment on the science data, an artificial intelligence monitoring system was developed, which detects in near real time any change in the reduced gravity environment susceptible to affect the on-going experiments. Using a dynamic graphical display, the monitoring system allows science teams, at any time and any location, to see the active vibration disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost and extra-vehicular activities that might impact the reduced gravity environment the experiments are exposed to. The monitoring system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many increments (an increment usually lasts 6 months) collected onboard the station for selected disturbances. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential systems failures. The monitoring system has two operating modes: online and offline. Both near real-time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line detection and trend analysis are discussed in this paper.

The Trends and their Impact on Fishery Products Safety and Quality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghe Adrian ZUGRAVU

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The paper follows two main objectives: to understand consumers’ perception of safety and quality of fishery products and to identify communication levers in order to improve the perceived image of fishery products. The present research is focused on the fishery products, regardless of their presentation – fresh, frozen or processed. This paper conducted a questionnaire survey of Romanian consumers’ perception toward fishery products. The empirical study with brands indicated that consumers are different awareness to domestic and foreign safety fish products. National fishery products got more attention from the consumers.

10CFR50.59 safety evaluations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grime, L.; Page, E.

1987-01-01

As a plant changes from the design phase to the operational phase, new regulations and standards apply. One such regulation is 10CFR50.59 on safety evaluations. Once an operating license is issued, it is mandatory to submit all applicable changes, tests, and experiments to the safety evaluation process. As preparation for this transition, Detroit Edison had procedures in place and conducted personnel training. Reviews of the safety engineering were conducted by the on-site review board. The off-site board delegated detailed reviews of most safety evaluations to the independent safety evaluation group (ISEG). The on-site group review included presentation of complete design packages by engineers. The ISEG and off-site review group's activity focused on safety evaluation. This paper addresses industry trends that were studied, Detroit Edison's recent actions, and industry issues related to 10CFR50.59 safety evaluations

Traffic safety strategies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Sadauskas

2003-04-01

Full Text Available Fast development of the number of vehicles is closely related not only to large benefit for the public but also to certain undesirable social and economic consequences. Firstly - large numbers of injured and killed people are involved into the accidents. The target to improve traffic safety situation in Lithuania can be reached only after the detailed evaluation of transport system, environment, traffic participants, road and vehicle. Taking into consideration the accident situation in Lithuania and its causes the followings priority trends are suggested: The improvement of the coordination of road traffic safety system, the training and education of road users, the explanation of the importance of traffic safety and its propagation, the improvement of traffic conditions. Recommendations and proposals for differentiated criterion of maximum speed limit selection taking into account different factors are provided in the work.

78 FR 65661 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Food Safety Survey

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-01

... are used to measure trends in consumer food safety habits including hand and cutting board washing... notice invites comments on a voluntary consumer survey entitled, ``Food Safety Survey.'' DATES: Submit... the safety of the nation's food supply. The Food Safety Survey measures consumers' knowledge...

Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.; Oelgaard, P.L.; Aage, H.K.; Kampmann, D.; Nystrup, P.E.; Thomsen, J.

2012-07-01

The report is the ninth report in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is written in collaboration between Risoe DTU and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2011 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development, safety related events, international relations and conflicts, and the Fukushima accident. (LN)

Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.; Oelgaard, P.L.; Kampmann, D.

2009-06-01

The report is the fifth report in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is written in collaboration between Risoe DTU and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2008 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development, safety related events of nuclear power, and international relations and conflicts. (LN)

Prediction of Machine Tool Condition Using Support Vector Machine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Peigong; Meng Qingfeng; Zhao Jian; Li Junjie; Wang Xiufeng

2011-01-01

Condition monitoring and predicting of CNC machine tools are investigated in this paper. Considering the CNC machine tools are often small numbers of samples, a condition predicting method for CNC machine tools based on support vector machines (SVMs) is proposed, then one-step and multi-step condition prediction models are constructed. The support vector machines prediction models are used to predict the trends of working condition of a certain type of CNC worm wheel and gear grinding machine by applying sequence data of vibration signal, which is collected during machine processing. And the relationship between different eigenvalue in CNC vibration signal and machining quality is discussed. The test result shows that the trend of vibration signal Peak-to-peak value in surface normal direction is most relevant to the trend of surface roughness value. In trends prediction of working condition, support vector machine has higher prediction accuracy both in the short term ('One-step') and long term (multi-step) prediction compared to autoregressive (AR) model and the RBF neural network. Experimental results show that it is feasible to apply support vector machine to CNC machine tool condition prediction.

Aging and service wear of air-operated valves used in safety-related systems at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, D.F.; McElhaney, K.L.; Staunton, R.H.

1995-05-01

Air-operated valves (AOVs) are used in a variety of safety-related applications at nuclear power plants. They are often used where rapid stroke times are required or precise control of the valve obturator is required. They can be designed to operate automatically upon loss of power, which is often desirable when selecting components for response to design basis conditions. The purpose of this report is to examine the reported failures of AOVs and determine whether there are identifiable trends in the failures related to predictable causes. This report examines the specific components that comprise a typical AOV, how those components fail, when they fail, and how such failures are discovered. It also examines whether current testing frequencies and methods are effective in predicting such failures

Trend curve data development and testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McElroy, W.N.; Gold, R.; Simons, R.L.; Roberts, J.H.

1986-01-01

Existing trend curves do not account for previous and more recently observed test and power reactor flux-level, thermal neutron and γ-ray field-induced effects. Any agreement between measured data and trend curve predictions that does not adequately represent the important neutron environmental and temperature effects as well as the microstructural damage processes, therefore, could be fortuitous. Empirically derived end-of-life (EOL) and life-extension-range (LER) trend curves are presented and discussed in this paper for high temperature [∼288 0 C (550 0 F)] irradiation of two weld, two plate, and two forging pressure vessel (PV) steels and low-temperature [∼60 0 C (140 0 F)] irradiation of one support structure-type steel

Safety and reliability in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colombo, A.G.

1985-01-01

This volume contains the papers presented at the ESRA Pre-Launching Meeting. The meeting was attended by about eighty European reliability and safety experts from industry, research organizations and universities. This meeting was dealing with the following subjects: the historical perspective of safety and reliability in Europe and to the aims of ESRA. Status and Trends in Research and Development; Codes, Standards and Regulations; Academic and Technical Training. National and international Organizations. Twenty six papers have been analyzed and abstracted for inclusion in the data base

Trends in chassis and automobile electronics components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hackenberg, Ulrich [Volkswagen AG, Wolfsburg (Germany)

2008-07-01

The rapidly-growing importance of electronics in automobile construction is in part determined by the debate on sustainability and the clear trend towards electric power trains. Another factor, however, is the decisive impact of electronics on the further development of components, e.g. for chassis. Apart from environmental protection, key motivators for component development include comfort, safety, infotainment and driver assistance. (orig.)

Current trends in codal requirements for safety in operation of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srivasista, K.; Shah, Y.K.; Gupta, S.K.

2006-01-01

The Code of practice on safety in nuclear power plant operation states the requirements to be met during operation of a nuclear power plant for assuring safety. Among various stages of authorization, regulatory body issues authorization for operation of a nuclear power plant, monitors and enforces regulatory requirements. The responsible organization shall have overall responsibility and the plant management shall have the primary responsibility for ensuring safe and efficient operation of its nuclear power plants. A set of codal requirements covering technical and administrative aspects are mandatory for the plant management to implement to ensure that the nuclear power plant is operated in accordance with the design intent. Requirements on operating procedures and instructions establish operation and maintenance, inspection and testing of the plant in a planned and systematic way. The requirements on emergency preparedness programme establish with a reasonable assurance that, in the event of an emergency situation, appropriate measures can be taken to mitigate the consequences. Commissioning requirements verify performance criteria during commissioning to ensure that the design intent and QA requirements are met. Several modifications in systems important to safety required during operation of a nuclear power plant are regulated. However new operational codal requirements arising out of periodic safety review, operational experience feedback, life management, probabilistic safety assessment, physical security, safety convention and obligations and decommissioning are not covered in the present code of practice for safety in nuclear power plant operation. Codal provisions on 'Review by operating organization on aspects of design having implications on operability' are also required to be addressed. The merits in developing such a methodology include acceptance of the design by operating organization, ensuring maintainability, proper layout etc. in the new designs

Track Irregularity Time Series Analysis and Trend Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jia Chaolong

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The combination of linear and nonlinear methods is widely used in the prediction of time series data. This paper analyzes track irregularity time series data by using gray incidence degree models and methods of data transformation, trying to find the connotative relationship between the time series data. In this paper, GM (1,1 is based on first-order, single variable linear differential equations; after an adaptive improvement and error correction, it is used to predict the long-term changing trend of track irregularity at a fixed measuring point; the stochastic linear AR, Kalman filtering model, and artificial neural network model are applied to predict the short-term changing trend of track irregularity at unit section. Both long-term and short-term changes prove that the model is effective and can achieve the expected accuracy.

Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.; Nonboel, E.; Israelson, C.; Kampmann, D.; Nystrup, P.E.; Thomsen, J.

2013-11-01

The report is the tenth report in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is prepared in collaboration between DTU Nutech and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2012 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development, safety related events, international relations and conflicts, and the results of the EU stress test. (LN)

Limitations of Managing Safety by Numbers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Engström, D.

2016-01-01

Work, especially in a complex, dynamic workplaces, often requires subtle, local judgment with regard to timing of subtasks, relevance, importance, prioritization, etc. Still, people in the nuclear industry seem to think safety results from error counts and people just following procedures. In the wake of failure it can be tempting to introduce new procedures and an even stricter “rule following culture”. None, or at least very little, attention is given to tacit knowledge and individual skills. I am aiming to highlight the inadequacy of putting too much trust in formalization and that reporting and trending of events will contribute to increased learning, an increased nuclear safety and an efficient operational experience. The ability to interpret a situation concrete depends on proven experience in similar situations, analogical thinking and tacit knowledge. I intend to problematize the introduction and use of so-called Corrective Action Program (CAP) and computerised reporting systems linked to CAP in the nuclear industry. Categorization and trending in computerised reporting systems is only based on the direct or triggering cause and not based on any analyzes, so the question we have to ask is what the trends are really telling us, if anything at all.

Discussion about risk-informed regulations on the nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu Yeyi

2008-01-01

The article introduces the background and status quo of regulations on the nuclear safety in China, and points out the inadequacies existing with the current regulations. The author explains the risk-informed safety management concerning its development, status quo, and achievements made, in an attempt to make out the trend of improving regulations on the nuclear safety through risk-informed methods. Combining the U.S. development program of establishing risk-informed regulations on the nuclear safety, the author narrates principles and features of the new regulations system, and provides suggestions for the promotion of risk-informed safety management and establishment of risk-informed regulations on the nuclear safety. (author)

Examining the safety of PPAR agonists - current trends and future prospects.

Science.gov (United States)

Bortolini, Michele; Wright, Matthew B; Bopst, Martin; Balas, Bogdana

2013-01-01

The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor (PPAR)-α and -γ agonists, fibrates and glitazones, are effective treatments for dyslipidemia and type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively, but exhibit class-related, as well as compound-specific safety characteristics. This article reviews the profiles of PPAR-α, PPAR-γ, and dual PPAR-α/γ agonists with regard to class-related and compound-specific efficacy and adverse effects. We explore how learnings from first-generation drugs are being applied to develop safer PPAR-targeted therapies. The finding that rosiglitazone may increase risk for cardiovascular events has led to regulatory guidelines requiring demonstration of cardiovascular safety in appropriate outcome trials for new type 2 diabetes mellitus drugs. The emerging data on the possibly increased risk of bladder cancer with pioglitazone may prompt the need for post-approval safety studies for new drugs. Since PPAR-α and -γ affect key cardiometabolic risk factors (diabetic dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, hyperglycemia, and inflammation) in a complementary fashion, combining their benefits has emerged as a particularly attractive option. New PPAR-targeted therapies that balance the relative potency and/or activity toward PPAR-α and -γ have shown promise in retaining efficacy while reducing potential side effects.

Bowing-reactivity trends in EBR-II assuming zero-swelling ducts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meneghetti, D.

1994-01-01

Predicted trends of duct-bowing reactivities for the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) are correlated with predicted row-wise duct deflections assuming use of idealized zero-void-swelling subassembly ducts. These assume no irradiation induced swellings of ducts but include estimates of the effects of irradiation-creep relaxation of thermally induced bowing stresses. The results illustrate the manners in which at-power creeps may affect subsequent duct deflections at zero power and thereby the trends of the bowing component of a subsequent power reactivity decrement

Temporal Trends and Future Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence Across Age Groups in Trivandrum, South India.

Science.gov (United States)

Mathew, Aleyamma; George, Preethi Sara; Arjunan, Asha; Augustine, Paul; Kalavathy, Mc; Padmakumari, G; Mathew, Beela Sarah

2016-01-01

Increasing breast cancer (BC) incidence rates have been reported from India; causal factors for this increased incidence are not understood and diagnosis is mostly in advanced stages. Trivandrum exhibits the highest BC incidence rates in India. This study aimed to estimate trends in incidence by age from 2005- 2014, to predict rates through 2020 and to assess the stage at diagnosis of BC in Trivandrum. BC cases were obtained from the Population Based Cancer Registry, Trivandrum. Distribution of stage at diagnosis and incidence rates of BC [Age-specific (ASpR), crude (CR) and age-standardized (ASR)] are described and employed with a joinpoint regression model to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPC) and a Bayesian model to estimate predictive rates. BC accounts for 31% (2681/8737) of all female cancers in Trivandrum. Thirty-five percent (944/2681) are 60 years and overall CR is 80 (ASR: 57) for 2019- 20. BC, mostly diagnosed in advanced stages, is rising rapidly in South India with large increases likely in the future; particularly among post-menopausal women. This increase might be due to aging and/or changes in lifestyle factors. Reasons for the increased incidence and late stage diagnosis need to be studied.

Fusion safety regulations in the United States: Progress and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeLooper, J.

1994-01-01

This paper explores the issue of regulations as they apply to current and future fusion experimental machines. It addresses fusion regulatory issues, current regulations used for fusion, the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor experience with regulations, and future regulations to achieve fusion's safety and environmental potential

Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

2008-01-01

In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

Regulatory Framework of Safety for HTGR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huh, Chang Wook; Suh, Nam Duk

2011-01-01

Recent accident in Fukushima Daiichi plant in Japan makes big impacts on the future of nuclear business. Many countries are changing their nuclear projects and increased safety of nuclear plants is asked for from the public. Without providing safety the society accepts, it might be almost impossible to build new plants further. In this sense high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) which is under development needs to be licensed reflecting this new expectation regarding safety. It means we should have higher level of safety goal and a systematic regulatory framework to assure the safety. In our previous paper, we evaluated the current safety goal and design practice in view of this new safety expectation after Fukushima accident. It was argued that a top-down approach starting from safety goal is necessary to develop safety requirements or to assure safety. Thus we need to propose an ultimate safety goal public accepts and then establish a systematic regulatory framework. In this paper we are going to provide a conceptual regulatory framework to guarantee the safety of HTGR. Section 2 discusses the recent trend of IAEA safety requirements and then summarize the HTGR design approach. Incorporating these discussions, we propose a conceptual framework of regulation for safety of HTGR

Trends and characteristics observed in nuclear events based on international nuclear event scale reports

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

2001-01-01

The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is jointly operated by the IAEA and the OECD-NEA as a means designed for providing prompt, clear and consistent information related to nuclear events, that occurred at nuclear facilities, and facilitating communication between the nuclear community, the media and the public. Nuclear events are reported to the INES with the Scale', a consistent safety significance indicator, which runs from level 0, for events with no safety significance, to level 7 for a major accident with widespread health and environmental effects. Since the operation of INES was initiated in 1990, approximately 500 events have been reported and disseminated. The present paper discusses the trends observed in nuclear events, such as overall trends of the reported events and characteristics of safety significant events with level 2 or higher, based on the INES reports. (author)

Prediction of safety critical software operational reliability from test reliability using testing environment factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Hoan Sung; Seong, Poong Hyun

1999-01-01

It has been a critical issue to predict the safety critical software reliability in nuclear engineering area. For many years, many researches have focused on the quantification of software reliability and there have been many models developed to quantify software reliability. Most software reliability models estimate the reliability with the failure data collected during the test assuming that the test environments well represent the operation profile. User's interest is however on the operational reliability rather than on the test reliability. The experiences show that the operational reliability is higher than the test reliability. With the assumption that the difference in reliability results from the change of environment, from testing to operation, testing environment factors comprising the aging factor and the coverage factor are developed in this paper and used to predict the ultimate operational reliability with the failure data in testing phase. It is by incorporating test environments applied beyond the operational profile into testing environment factors. The application results show that the proposed method can estimate the operational reliability accurately. (Author). 14 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig

Predicting workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions using SecureFit®: Further support for integrative models of workplace safety.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Matthew; Delgado, Kristin; Lawrence, Amie; Kung, Mavis; Tristan, Esteban

2017-06-01

A growing body of applied research has identified certain psychological traits that are predictive of worker safety. However, most of these studies suffer from an overreliance on common method bias caused by self-report measures of both: (a) personal factors such as personality traits; and (b) outcomes such as safety behaviors and injuries. This study utilized archival data from 796 employees at a large U.S. automobile manufacturer. Data were gathered on a pre-employment assessment, SecureFit®, that measured key personality characteristics such as conscientiousness, locus of control, and risk taking. In addition, objective measures of workers' compensation claims and disciplinary actions were also gathered. The results indicated that disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims were strongly correlated. It also demonstrated that the pre-employment assessment was able to predict both disciplinary actions and workers' compensation claims up to 12months in the future. Screening out just 8% of the applicant sample using the assessment would have resulted in a 35% reduction in disciplinary actions and 46% in workers' compensation claims, respectively. The study found a very strong relationship between counterproductive work behaviors (CWBs), such as not following rules, and workers' compensation claims. It also found a strong relationship between a combination of personality traits that have been shown to be associated with both variables, although the current study was able to demonstrate that relationship with objective measure of both variables. Individuals who receive disciplinary actions for things such as not following rules, not coming to work on time, etc. are significantly more likely to also be involved in serious safety incidents, and vice versa. Identifying those individuals early on in the hiring process and screening them out can significantly reduce the number of CWBs as well as workers' compensation claims. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and

Krsko NPP Periodic Safety Review program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Basic, I.; Spiler, J.; Novsak, M.

2001-01-01

The need for conducting a Periodic Safety Review for the Krsko NPP has been clearly recognized both by the NEK and the regulator (SNSA). The PSR would be highly desirable both in the light of current trends in safety oversight practices and because of many benefits it is capable to provide. On January 11, 2001 the SNSA issued a decision requesting the Krsko NPP to prepare a program and determine a schedule for the implementation of the program for 'Periodic Safety Review of NPP Krsko'. The program, which is required to be in accordance with the IAEA safety philosophy and with the EU practice, was submitted for the approval to the SNSA by the end of March 2001. The paper summarizes Krsko NPP Periodic Safety Review Program [1] including implemented SNSA and IAEA Expert Mission comments.(author)

Trending analysis of precursor events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio

1998-01-01

The Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program of United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (U.S.NRC) identifies and categorizes operational events at nuclear power plants in terms of the potential for core damage. The ASP analysis has been performed on yearly basis and the results have been published in the annual reports. This paper describes the trends in initiating events and dominant sequences for 459 precursors identified in the ASP Program during the 1969-94 period and also discusses a comparison with dominant sequences predicted in the past Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) studies. These trends were examined for three time periods, 1969-81, 1984-87 and 1988-94. Although the different models had been used in the ASP analyses for these three periods, the distribution of precursors by dominant sequences show similar trends to each other. For example, the sequences involving loss of both main and auxiliary feedwater were identified in many PWR events and those involving loss of both high and low coolant injection were found in many BWR events. Also, it was found that these dominant sequences were comparable to those determined to be dominant in the predictions by the past PRAs. As well, a list of the 459 precursors identified are provided in Appendix, indicating initiating event types, unavailable systems, dominant sequences, conditional core damage probabilities, and so on. (author)

A theoretical prediction of critical heat flux in saturated pool boiling during power transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasamehmetoglu, K.O.; Nelson, R.A.; Gunnerson, F.S.

1987-01-01

Understanding and predicting critical heat flux (CHF) behavior during steady-state and transient conditions is of fundamental interest in the design, operation, and safety of boiling and two-phase flow devices. Presented within this paper are the results of a comprehensive theoretical study specifically conducted to model transient CHF behavior in saturated pool boiling. Thermal energy conduction within a heating element and its influence on the CHF are also discussed. The resultant theory provides new insight into the basic physics of the CHF phenomenon and indicates favorable agreement with the experimental data from cylindrical heaters with small radii. However, the flat-ribbon heater data compared poorly with the present theory, although the general trend was predicted. Finally, various factors that affect the discrepency between the data and the theory are listed

Home drinking in the UK: trends and causes.

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, John H; Ferguson, Colin S

2012-01-01

To explore the trend in the UK to consume alcohol at home rather than at licensed premises. A Medline search entering the terms 'home drinking', 'alcohol' and 'adult' covering the period 2000-2011 yielded 48 articles, of which 6 met the criteria to be included in the review. Grey literature including survey and market research data were reviewed. In the UK, since 1970 there has been trend for beer to be consumed at home more often than in licensed premises and that the overall trend towards greater home drinking has increased since 2000. The main reasons given are convenience, cost, safety, autonomy and stress relief. There has also been an increase in the practice known as 'pre-loading' (drinking before going out). Adults who drink mainly at home report that they are aware that they run a risk of higher overall alcohol consumption but tend to play down the possibility that increased consumption may lead to longer-term harm. Home drinking trends may have long-term public health consequences. Greater understanding of the drivers of this trend will help policy-makers to respond to these societal changes.

Natural Language Interface for Safety Certification of Safety-Critical Software

Science.gov (United States)

Denney, Ewen; Fischer, Bernd

2011-01-01

Model-based design and automated code generation are being used increasingly at NASA. The trend is to move beyond simulation and prototyping to actual flight code, particularly in the guidance, navigation, and control domain. However, there are substantial obstacles to more widespread adoption of code generators in such safety-critical domains. Since code generators are typically not qualified, there is no guarantee that their output is correct, and consequently the generated code still needs to be fully tested and certified. The AutoCert generator plug-in supports the certification of automatically generated code by formally verifying that the generated code is free of different safety violations, by constructing an independently verifiable certificate, and by explaining its analysis in a textual form suitable for code reviews.

Radiation safety management system in a radioactive facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amador, Zayda H.

2008-01-01

Full text: This paper illustrates the Cuban experience in implementing and promoting an effective radiation safety system for the Centre of Isotopes, the biggest radioactive facility of our country. Current management practice demands that an organization inculcate culture of safety in preventing radiation hazard. The aforementioned objectives of radiation protection can only be met when it is implemented and evaluated continuously. Commitment from the workforce to treat safety as a priority and the ability to turn a requirement into a practical language is also important to implement radiation safety policy efficiently. Maintaining and improving safety culture is a continuous process. There is a need to establish a program to measure, review and audit health and safety performance against predetermined standards. All those areas of the radiation protection program are considered (e.g. licensing and training of the staff, occupational exposure, authorization of the practices, control of the radioactive material, radiological occurrences, monitoring equipment, radioactive waste management, public exposure due to airborne effluents, audits and safety costs). A set of indicators designed to monitor key aspects of operational safety performance are used. Their trends over a period of time are analyzed with the modern information technologies, because this can provide an early warning to plant management for searching causes behind the observed changes. In addition to analyze the changes and trends, these indicators are compared against identified targets and goals to evaluate performance strengths and weaknesses. A structured and proper radiation self-auditing system is seen as a basic requirement to meet the current and future needs in sustainability of radiation safety. The integrated safety management system establishment has been identified as a goal and way for the continuous improvement. (author)

Current Trends in Discharge Disposition and Post-discharge Care After Total Joint Arthroplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Tarity, T David; Swall, Marion M

2017-09-01

The purpose of this manuscript is to review published literature over the last 5 years to assess recent trends and influencing factors regarding discharge disposition and post-discharge care following total joint arthroplasty. We evaluated instruments proposed to predict a patient's discharge disposition and summarize reports investigating the safety in sending more patients home by reviewing complications and readmission rates. Current literature supports decreased length of hospital stay and increased discharge to home with cost savings and stable readmission rates. Surgeons with defined clinical pathways and those who shape patient expectations may more effectively control costs than those without defined pathways. Further research is needed analyzing best practices in care coordination, managing patient expectations, and cost-effective analysis of home discharge while at the same time ensuring patient outcomes are optimized following total joint arthroplasty.

mathematical models for prediction of safety factors for a simply

African Journals Online (AJOL)

HOD

Keywords: reliability, code calibration, load factor, safety factor, design, steel beam. 1. INTRODUCTION ... safety factors for the design of a simply supported steel beam using regression .... 5 design criteria for a solid timber portal frame.

Nuclear fuel licensing requirements: present status and future trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gantchev, T.; Vitkova, M.; Gorinov, I.; Datcheva, D.; Rashkova, N.

2001-01-01

The nuclear fuel licensing process must be directed to establishing of criteria for licensing (fuel safety criteria) and relationship between safety limits, technical specifications and operational conditions. This paper discusses the fuel safety criteria as used by NRC and Russian vendor. A survey on the available fuel behavior, modeling and related computer codes is given with respect to help the licensing process including new safety features of general changes in fuel design and operational conditions. Several types of computer codes that are used in safety analysis are sensitive to fuel-related parameters. The need for further code development and verification has been stated on many occasions: new design elements, such as different cladding materials, higher burnup, different fuel microstructure and use of MOX fuel can affect the performance of these codes. Regulatory inspection practices during operation and refueling in different countries are also shown. Future trends are discussed in particular with regard to the coming high burnup and to new core management schemes

Organizational factors influencing improvements in safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marcus, A.; Nichols, M.L.; Olson, J.; Osborn, R.; Thurber, J.

1991-01-01

Results of conceptual and empirical research conducted by this research team, and published in NUREG-CR 5437, suggested that processes of organizational problem solving and learning provide a promising area for understanding improvement in safety-related performance in nuclear power plants. In this paper the authors describe the way in which they have built upon that work and gone much further in empirically examining a range of potentially important organizational factors related to safety. The paper describes (1) overall trends in plant performance over time on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission performance indicators, (2) the major elements in the conceptual framework guiding the current work, which seeks among other things to explain those trends, (3) the specific variables used as measures of the central concepts, (4) the results to date of the quantitative empirical work and qualitative work in progress, and (5) conclusions from the research

Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.; Oelgaard, P.L.; Kampmann, D.; Majborn, B.; Nonboel, E.; Nystrup, P.E.

2007-04-01

The report is the fourth report in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is written in collaboration between Risoe National Laboratory and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2006 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development and development of emergency management systems, safety related events of nuclear power, and international relations and conflicts. (LN)

Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-03-01

The report is the second report in a new series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is written in collaboration between Risoe National Laboratory and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2004 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development and development of emergency management systems, safety related events of nuclear power and international relations and conflicts. (ln)

Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2005

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lauritzen, B.; Oelgaard, P.L.; Kampman, D.; Majborn, B.; Nonboel, E.; Nystrup, P.E.

2006-03-01

The report is the third report in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is written in collaboration between Risoe National Laboratory and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2005 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development and development of emergency management systems, safety related events of nuclear power and international relations and conflicts. (ln)

Using citizen science butterfly counts to predict species population trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis, Emily B; Morgan, Byron J T; Brereton, Tom M; Roy, David B; Fox, Richard

2017-12-01

Citizen scientists are increasingly engaged in gathering biodiversity information, but trade-offs are often required between public engagement goals and reliable data collection. We compared population estimates for 18 widespread butterfly species derived from the first 4 years (2011-2014) of a short-duration citizen science project (Big Butterfly Count [BBC]) with those from long-running, standardized monitoring data collected by experienced observers (U.K. Butterfly Monitoring Scheme [UKBMS]). BBC data are gathered during an annual 3-week period, whereas UKBMS sampling takes place over 6 months each year. An initial comparison with UKBMS data restricted to the 3-week BBC period revealed that species population changes were significantly correlated between the 2 sources. The short-duration sampling season rendered BBC counts susceptible to bias caused by interannual phenological variation in the timing of species' flight periods. The BBC counts were positively related to butterfly phenology and sampling effort. Annual estimates of species abundance and population trends predicted from models including BBC data and weather covariates as a proxy for phenology correlated significantly with those derived from UKBMS data. Overall, citizen science data obtained using a simple sampling protocol produced comparable estimates of butterfly species abundance to data collected through standardized monitoring methods. Although caution is urged in extrapolating from this U.K. study of a small number of common, conspicuous insects, we found that mass-participation citizen science can simultaneously contribute to public engagement and biodiversity monitoring. Mass-participation citizen science is not an adequate replacement for standardized biodiversity monitoring but may extend and complement it (e.g., through sampling different land-use types), as well as serving to reconnect an increasingly urban human population with nature. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published

Use of read-across and computer-based predictive analysis for the safety assessment of PEG cocamines.

Science.gov (United States)

Skare, Julie A; Blackburn, Karen; Wu, Shengde; Re, Thomas A; Duche, Daniel; Ringeissen, Stephanie; Bjerke, Donald L; Srinivasan, Viny; Eisenmann, Carol

2015-04-01

In the European Union animal testing has been eliminated for cosmetic ingredients while the US Cosmetic Ingredient Review Expert Panel may request data from animal studies. The use of read-across and predictive toxicology provides a path for filling data gaps without additional animal testing. The PEG cocamines are tertiary amines with an alkyl group derived from coconut fatty acids and two PEG chains of varying length. Toxicology data gaps for the PEG cocamines can be addressed by read-across based on structure-activity relationship using the framework described by Wu et al. (2010) for identifying suitable structural analogs. Data for structural analogs supports the conclusion that the PEG cocamines are non-genotoxic and not expected to exhibit systemic or developmental/reproductive toxicity with use in cosmetics. Due to lack of reliable dermal sensitization data for suitable analogs, this endpoint was addressed using predictive software (TIMES SS) as a first step (Laboratory of Mathematical Chemistry). The prediction for PEG cocamines was the same as that for PEGs, which have been concluded to not present a significant concern for dermal sensitization. This evaluation for PEG cocamines demonstrates the utility of read-across and predictive toxicology tools to assess the safety of cosmetic ingredients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EHS Open House: Learning Lab and Life Safety | Poster

Science.gov (United States)

Attendees of the Environment, Health, and Safety Program’s (EHS’) Open House had a chance to learn self-defense techniques, as well as visit with vendors demonstrating the latest trends in laboratory safety. “Working with sharps in labs is inherently dangerous, so EHS proactively focused on featuring equipment that would promote safer techniques,” said Siobhan Tierney, program

Analysis of Aviation Safety Reporting System Incident Data Associated With the Technical Challenges of the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project

Science.gov (United States)

Withrow, Colleen A.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

This analysis was conducted to support the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology (VSST) Project of the Aviation Safety Program (AVsP) milestone VSST4.2.1.01, "Identification of VSST-Related Trends." In particular, this is a review of incident data from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The following three VSST-related technical challenges (TCs) were the focus of the incidents searched in the ASRS database: (1) Vechicle health assurance, (2) Effective crew-system interactions and decisions in all conditions; and (3) Aircraft loss of control prevention, mitigation, and recovery.

Trends in development of new generation of NPPs with increased safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rumyantsev, V.V.

1992-01-01

The main requirements for designing, construction and operation of NPPs with advanced water cooled ALWR and SBWR reactors being under development in the USA are discussed. The trends in modernization of control systems at NPPs of new generation based on wide introduction of digital computers and visualization of technological parameter measurements are considered

Power reactor design trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hogan, W.J.

1985-01-01

Cascade and Pulse Star represent new trends in ICF power reactor design that have emerged in the last few years. The most recent embodiments of these two concepts, and that of the HYLIFE design with which they will compare them, are shown. All three reactors depend upon protecting structural elements from neutrons, x rays and debris by injecting massive amounts of shielding material inside the reaction chamber. However, Cascade and Pulse Star introduce new ideas to improve the economics, safety, and environmental impact of ICF reactors. They also pose different development issues and thus represent technological alternatives to HYLIFE

Technology Trend in the Maintenance of Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yoon, Kyungsup; Lee, Unjang

2014-01-01

In this paper, overall technology evolution is reviewed and the improvements in the plant safety, reliability and productivity are described. And the issue and some recommendation for better maintenance of Korean nuclear power plants are presented as the interim study results on the 'Management and Regulatory Policy for the Nuclear Power Plant Maintenance and Equipment Reliability' under the agreement with the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission. The future trend in the maintenance technologies is also covered. Maintenance is the essential element for the enhancement of plant safety, reliability and economics and also for public safety. Therefore the regulator's involvements and the utility's active participation is inevitable for the better maintenance. For the better sustainability of our nuclear power plants the followings are recommended. ·Establishment of the good maintenance program and continuous improvement. ·Application of OLM on the safety related and non-safety related components by step-by-step approach. ·Improvement PRA technology for the accurate and reliable risk analysis. ·Continuous training and cultivation for the qualified maintenance personnel

Technology Trend in the Maintenance of Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yoon, Kyungsup; Lee, Unjang [CTO and CEO, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

In this paper, overall technology evolution is reviewed and the improvements in the plant safety, reliability and productivity are described. And the issue and some recommendation for better maintenance of Korean nuclear power plants are presented as the interim study results on the 'Management and Regulatory Policy for the Nuclear Power Plant Maintenance and Equipment Reliability' under the agreement with the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission. The future trend in the maintenance technologies is also covered. Maintenance is the essential element for the enhancement of plant safety, reliability and economics and also for public safety. Therefore the regulator's involvements and the utility's active participation is inevitable for the better maintenance. For the better sustainability of our nuclear power plants the followings are recommended. ·Establishment of the good maintenance program and continuous improvement. ·Application of OLM on the safety related and non-safety related components by step-by-step approach. ·Improvement PRA technology for the accurate and reliable risk analysis. ·Continuous training and cultivation for the qualified maintenance personnel.

Clearance Prediction Methodology Needs Fundamental Improvement: Trends Common to Rat and Human Hepatocytes/Microsomes and Implications for Experimental Methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, F L; Houston, J B; Hallifax, D

2017-11-01

Although prediction of clearance using hepatocytes and liver microsomes has long played a decisive role in drug discovery, it is widely acknowledged that reliably accurate prediction is not yet achievable despite the predominance of hepatically cleared drugs. Physiologically mechanistic methodology tends to underpredict clearance by several fold, and empirical correction of this bias is confounded by imprecision across drugs. Understanding the causes of prediction uncertainty has been slow, possibly reflecting poor resolution of variables associated with donor source and experimental methods, particularly for the human situation. It has been reported that among published human hepatocyte predictions there was a tendency for underprediction to increase with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, suggesting an inherent limitation using this particular system. This implied an artifactual rate limitation in vitro, although preparative effects on cell stability and performance were not yet resolved from assay design limitations. Here, to resolve these issues further, we present an up-to-date and comprehensive examination of predictions from published rat as well as human studies (where n = 128 and 101 hepatocytes and n = 71 and 83 microsomes, respectively) to assess system performance more independently. We report a clear trend of increasing underprediction with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, which is similar both between species and between in vitro systems. Hence, prior concerns arising specifically from human in vitro systems may be unfounded and the focus of investigation in the future should be to minimize the potential in vitro assay limitations common to whole cells and subcellular fractions. Copyright © 2017 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

Modeling trends of health and health related indicators in Ethiopia (1995-2008: a time-series study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nigatu Tilahun H

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Federal Ministry of Health of Ethiopia has been publishing Health and Health related indicators of the country annually since 1987 E.C. These indicators have been of high importance in indicating the status of health in the country in those years. However, the trends/patterns of these indicators and the factors related to the trends have not yet been investigated in a systematic manner. In addition, there were minimal efforts to develop a model for predicting future values of Health and Health related indicators based on the current trend. Objectives The overall aim of this study was to analyze trends of and develop model for prediction of Health and Health related indicators. More specifically, it described the trends of Health and Health related indicators, identified determinants of mortality and morbidity indicators and developed model for predicting future values of MDG indicators. Methods This study was conducted on Health and Health related indicators of Ethiopia from the year 1987 E.C to 2000 E.C. Key indicators of Mortality and Morbidity, Health service coverage, Health systems resources, Demographic and socio-economic, and Risk factor indicators were extracted and analyzed. The trends in these indicators were established using trend analysis techniques. The determinants of the established trends were identified using ARIMA models in STATA. The trend-line equations were then used to predict future values of the indicators. Results Among the mortality indicators considered in this study, it was only Maternal Mortality Ratio that showed statistically significant decrement within the study period. The trends of Total Fertility Rate, physician per 100,000 population, skilled birth attendance and postnatal care coverage were found to have significant association with Maternal Mortality Ratio trend. There was a reversal of malaria parasite prevalence in 1999 E.C from Plasmodium Falciparum to Plasmodium Vivax. Based on

Estimation of Nitrate Trends in the Groundwater of the Zagreb Aquifer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zoran Kovač

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Nitrates present one of the main groundwater contaminants in the world and in the Zagreb aquifer. The Zagreb aquifer presents the main source of potable water for the inhabitants of the City of Zagreb and it is protected by the Republic of Croatia. The determination of contaminants trends presents one of the main tools in groundwater body status and risk assessment. In this paper, the use of regression analysis on the aggregated data, together with confidence and prediction intervals, at different observation scales has been evaluated. Nitrate concentrations are generally decreasing in almost all areas, observed at different observation scales. It has been shown that linear regression can be efficiently used in the estimation of nitrates trends. Results showed that the calculation of confidence and prediction intervals can provide more useful conclusions than the calculation of the trend’s statistical significance. Also, the results suggest that confidence and prediction intervals can be used in groundwater body chemical status and risk assessment, respectively. Data smoothing and data aggregation are generally desirable, but have certain limitations. If too much data is aggregated, trend estimation by regression analysis can point to false conclusions. Evaluation of trends at different observational scales can provide more realistic trend estimation, as well as more precise identification of areas where groundwater protection measures should be implemented.

Predictive modelling for startup and investor relationship based on crowdfunding platform data

Science.gov (United States)

Alamsyah, Andry; Buono Asto Nugroho, Tri

2018-03-01

Crowdfunding platform is a place where startup shows off publicly their idea for the purpose to get their project funded. Crowdfunding platform such as Kickstarter are becoming popular today, it provides the efficient way for startup to get funded without liabilities, it also provides variety project category that can be participated. There is an available safety procedure to ensure achievable low-risk environment. The startup promoted project must accomplish their funded goal target. If they fail to reach the target, then there is no investment activity take place. It motivates startup to be more active to promote or disseminate their project idea and it also protect investor from losing money. The study objective is to predict the successfulness of proposed project and mapping investor trend using data mining framework. To achieve the objective, we proposed 3 models. First model is to predict whether a project is going to be successful or failed using K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN). Second model is to predict the number of successful project using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Third model is to map the trend of investor in investing the project using K-Means clustering algorithm. KNN gives 99.04% model accuracy, while ANN best configuration gives 16-14-1 neuron layers and 0.2 learning rate, and K-Means gives 6 best separation clusters. The results of those models can help startup or investor to make decision regarding startup investment.

Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2012

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-07-01

The Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2012 contains an analytical overview of the dominant trends, issues and challenges worldwide in 2011 and the Agency's efforts to strengthen the global nuclear safety framework. This year's report also highlights issues and activities related to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The analytical overview is supported by the Appendix at the end of this document, entitled: The IAEA Safety Standards: Activities during 2011. A draft version of the Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2012 was submitted to the March 2012 session of the Board of Governors in document GOV/2012/6. The final version of the Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2012 was prepared in light of the discussions held during the Board of Governors and also of the comments received.

Are area-based initiatives able to improve area safety in deprived areas? A quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Daniëlle; Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Stronks, Karien; Droomers, Mariël; Kunst, Anton E

2015-07-28

Numerous area-based initiatives have been implemented in deprived areas across Western-Europe with the aim to improve the socio-economic and environmental conditions in these areas. Only few of these initiatives have been scientifically evaluated for their impact on key social determinants of health, like perceived area safety. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch area-based initiative called the District Approach on trends in perceived area safety and underlying problems in deprived target districts. A quasi-experimental design was used. Repeated cross-sectional data on perceived area safety and underlying problems were obtained from the National Safety Monitor (2005-2008) and its successor the Integrated Safety Monitor (2008-2011). Study population consisted of 133,522 Dutch adults, including 3,595 adults from target districts. Multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in self-reported general safety, physical order, social order, and non-victimization before and after the start of the District Approach mid-2008. Trends in target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. Residents of target districts felt less safe, perceived less physical and social order, and were victimized more often than adults elsewhere in the Netherlands. For non-victimization, target districts showed a somewhat more positive change in trend after the start of the District Approach than the rest of the Netherlands or other deprived districts. Differences were only statistically significant in women, older adults, and lower educated adults. For general safety, physical order, and social order, there were no differences in trend change between target districts and control groups. Results suggest that the District Approach has been unable to improve perceptions of area safety and disorder in deprived areas, but that it did result in declining victimization rates.

Nuclear Safety Review 2013

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-07-15

The Nuclear Safety Review 2013 focuses on the dominant nuclear safety trends, issues and challenges in 2012. The Executive Overview provides crosscutting and worldwide nuclear safety information along with a summary of the major sections covered in this report. Sections A-E of this report cover improving radiation, transport and waste safety; strengthening safety in nuclear installations; improving regulatory infrastructure and effectiveness; enhancing emergency preparedness and response (EPR); and civil liability for nuclear damage. The Appendix provides details on the activities of the Commission on Safety Standards (CSS), and activities relevant to the IAEA Safety Standards. The world nuclear community has made noteworthy progress in strengthening nuclear safety in 2012, as promoted by the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (hereinafter referred to as ''the Action Plan''). For example, an overwhelming majority of Member States with operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) have undertaken and essentially completed comprehensive safety reassessments ('stress tests') with the aim of evaluating the design and safety aspects of plant robustness to protect against extreme events, including: defence in depth, safety margins, cliff edge effects, multiple failures, and the prolonged loss of support systems. As a result, many have introduced additional safety measures including mitigation of station blackout. Moreover, the IAEA's peer review services and safety standards have been reviewed and strengthened where needed. Capacity building programmes have been built or improved, and EPR programmes have also been reviewed and improved. Furthermore, in 2012, the IAEA continued to share lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident with the nuclear community including through three international experts' meetings (IEMs) on reactor and spent fuel safety, communication in the event of a nuclear or radiological emergency, and protection against extreme earthquakes and tsunamis.

Nuclear Safety Review 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-07-01

The Nuclear Safety Review 2013 focuses on the dominant nuclear safety trends, issues and challenges in 2012. The Executive Overview provides crosscutting and worldwide nuclear safety information along with a summary of the major sections covered in this report. Sections A-E of this report cover improving radiation, transport and waste safety; strengthening safety in nuclear installations; improving regulatory infrastructure and effectiveness; enhancing emergency preparedness and response (EPR); and civil liability for nuclear damage. The Appendix provides details on the activities of the Commission on Safety Standards (CSS), and activities relevant to the IAEA Safety Standards. The world nuclear community has made noteworthy progress in strengthening nuclear safety in 2012, as promoted by the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety (hereinafter referred to as ''the Action Plan''). For example, an overwhelming majority of Member States with operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) have undertaken and essentially completed comprehensive safety reassessments ('stress tests') with the aim of evaluating the design and safety aspects of plant robustness to protect against extreme events, including: defence in depth, safety margins, cliff edge effects, multiple failures, and the prolonged loss of support systems. As a result, many have introduced additional safety measures including mitigation of station blackout. Moreover, the IAEA's peer review services and safety standards have been reviewed and strengthened where needed. Capacity building programmes have been built or improved, and EPR programmes have also been reviewed and improved. Furthermore, in 2012, the IAEA continued to share lessons learned from the Fukushima Daiichi accident with the nuclear community including through three international experts' meetings (IEMs) on reactor and spent fuel safety, communication in the event of a nuclear or radiological emergency, and protection against extreme earthquakes and tsunamis

Guidance for the design and management of a maintenance plan to assure safety and improve the predictability of a DOE nuclear irradiation facility. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, R.S.; Kryter, R.C.; Shepard, R.L.; Smith, O.L.; Upadhyaya, B.R.; Rowan, W.J.

1994-10-01

A program is recommended for planning the maintenance of DOE nuclear facilities that will help safety and enhance availability throughout a facility's life cycle. While investigating the requirements for maintenance activities, a major difference was identified between the strategy suitable for a conventional power reactor and one for a research reactor facility: the latter should provide a high degree of predicted availability (referred to hereafter as ''predictability'') to its users, whereas the former should maximize total energy production. These differing operating goals necessitate different maintenance strategies. A strategy for scheduling research reactor facility operation and shutdown for maintenance must balance safety, reliability,and predicted availability. The approach developed here is based on three major elements: (1) a probabilistic risk analysis of the balance between assured reliability and predictability (presented in Appendix C), (2) an assessment of the safety and operational impact of maintenance activities applied to various components of the facility, and (3) a data base of historical and operational information on the performance and requirements for maintenance of various components. These factors are integrated into a set of guidelines for designing a new highly maintainable facility, for preparing flexible schedules for improved maintenance of existing facilities, and for anticipating the maintenance required to extend the life of an aging facility. Although tailored to research reactor facilities, the methodology has broader applicability and may therefore be used to improved the maintenance of power reactors, particularly in anticipation of peak load demands

Managing patient safety through NPSGs and employee performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Adair, Liberty

2010-01-01

Patient safety can only exist in a culture of patient safety, which implies it is a value perceived by all. Culture predicts safety outcomes and leadership predicts the culture. Leaders are obligated to continually mitigate hazard and take action consciously. Healthcare workers should focus on preventing and reporting mistakes with the National Patient Safety Goals (NPSGs) in mind. These include: accuracy of patient identification, effectiveness of communication among caregivers, improving safety of medications, reducing infections, reducing risk of falls, and encouraging patients to be involved in care. Poor performers and reckless behavior need to be mitigated. If employees recognize their roles in the process, feel empowered,and have appropriate tools, resources,and data to implement solutions, errors can be avoided and patient safety becomes paramount.

Optimal Braking Patterns and Forces in Autonomous Safety-Critical Maneuvers

OpenAIRE

Fors, Victor

2018-01-01

The trend of more advanced driver-assistance features and the development toward autonomous vehicles enable new possibilities in the area of active safety. With more information available in the vehicle about the surrounding traffic and the road ahead, there is the possibility of improved active-safety systems that make use of this information for stability control in safety-critical maneuvers. Such a system could adaptively make a trade-off between controlling the longitudinal, lateral, and ...

Process safety improvement-Quality and target zero

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Scyoc, Karl [Det Norske Veritas (U.S.A.) Inc., DNV Energy Solutions, 16340 Park Ten Place, Suite 100, Houston, TX 77084 (United States)], E-mail: karl.van.scyoc@dnv.com

2008-11-15

Process safety practitioners have adopted quality management principles in design of process safety management systems with positive effect, yet achieving safety objectives sometimes remain a distant target. Companies regularly apply tools and methods which have roots in quality and productivity improvement. The 'plan, do, check, act' improvement loop, statistical analysis of incidents (non-conformities), and performance trending popularized by Dr. Deming are now commonly used in the context of process safety. Significant advancements in HSE performance are reported after applying methods viewed as fundamental for quality management. In pursuit of continual process safety improvement, the paper examines various quality improvement methods, and explores how methods intended for product quality can be additionally applied to continual improvement of process safety. Methods such as Kaizen, Poke yoke, and TRIZ, while long established for quality improvement, are quite unfamiliar in the process safety arena. These methods are discussed for application in improving both process safety leadership and field work team performance. Practical ways to advance process safety, based on the methods, are given.

Process safety improvement-Quality and target zero

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Scyoc, Karl

2008-01-01

Process safety practitioners have adopted quality management principles in design of process safety management systems with positive effect, yet achieving safety objectives sometimes remain a distant target. Companies regularly apply tools and methods which have roots in quality and productivity improvement. The 'plan, do, check, act' improvement loop, statistical analysis of incidents (non-conformities), and performance trending popularized by Dr. Deming are now commonly used in the context of process safety. Significant advancements in HSE performance are reported after applying methods viewed as fundamental for quality management. In pursuit of continual process safety improvement, the paper examines various quality improvement methods, and explores how methods intended for product quality can be additionally applied to continual improvement of process safety. Methods such as Kaizen, Poke yoke, and TRIZ, while long established for quality improvement, are quite unfamiliar in the process safety arena. These methods are discussed for application in improving both process safety leadership and field work team performance. Practical ways to advance process safety, based on the methods, are given

Process safety improvement--quality and target zero.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Scyoc, Karl

2008-11-15

Process safety practitioners have adopted quality management principles in design of process safety management systems with positive effect, yet achieving safety objectives sometimes remain a distant target. Companies regularly apply tools and methods which have roots in quality and productivity improvement. The "plan, do, check, act" improvement loop, statistical analysis of incidents (non-conformities), and performance trending popularized by Dr. Deming are now commonly used in the context of process safety. Significant advancements in HSE performance are reported after applying methods viewed as fundamental for quality management. In pursuit of continual process safety improvement, the paper examines various quality improvement methods, and explores how methods intended for product quality can be additionally applied to continual improvement of process safety. Methods such as Kaizen, Poke yoke, and TRIZ, while long established for quality improvement, are quite unfamiliar in the process safety arena. These methods are discussed for application in improving both process safety leadership and field work team performance. Practical ways to advance process safety, based on the methods, are given.

Individual employee's perceptions of " Group-level Safety Climate" (supervisor referenced) versus " Organization-level Safety Climate" (top management referenced): Associations with safety outcomes for lone workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Lee, Jin; McFadden, Anna C; Rineer, Jennifer; Robertson, Michelle M

2017-01-01

Research has shown that safety climate is among the strongest predictors of safety behavior and safety outcomes in a variety of settings. Previous studies have established that safety climate is a multi-faceted construct referencing multiple levels of management within a company, most generally: the organization level (employee perceptions of top management's commitment to and prioritization of safety) and group level (employee perceptions of direct supervisor's commitment to and prioritization of safety). Yet, no research to date has examined the potential interaction between employees' organization-level safety climate (OSC) and group-level safety climate (GSC) perceptions. Furthermore, prior research has mainly focused on traditional work environments in which supervisors and workers interact in the same location throughout the day. Little research has been done to examine safety climate with regard to lone workers. The present study aims to address these gaps by examining the relationships between truck drivers' (as an example of lone workers) perceptions of OSC and GSC, both potential linear and non-linear relationships, and how these predict important safety outcomes. Participants were 8095 truck drivers from eight trucking companies in the United States with an average response rate of 44.8%. Results showed that employees' OSC and GSC perceptions are highly correlated (r= 0.78), but notable gaps between the two were observed for some truck drivers. Uniquely, both OSC and GSC scores were found to have curvilinear relationships with safe driving behavior, and both scores were equally predictive of safe driving behavior. Results also showed the two levels of climate significantly interacted with one another to predict safety behavior such that if either the OSC or GSC scores were low, the other's contribution to safety behavior became stronger. These findings suggest that OSC and GSC may function in a compensatory manner and promote safe driving behavior even

Trend curve data development and testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McElroy, W.N.; Gold, R.; Simons, R.L.; Roberts, J.H.

1986-08-01

Existing trend curves do not account for previous and more recently observed test and power reactor flux-level, thermal neutron and gamma-ray field-induced effects. Any agreement between measured data and trend curve predictions that does not adequately represent the important neutron environmental and temperature effects as well as the microstructural damage processes, therefore, could be fortuitous. Two principal questions asked concerning the metallurgical condition of the pressure vessel and its support structures are: What are the controlling variables; and What effects do they have on changing the metallurgical properties of the vessel and its support structures throughout their lifetimes

Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in north-west region of India: A six-year ICTC-based study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyas Nitya

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Background: The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for a couple of years. Objectives: The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. Materials and Methods: All the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence, pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied. As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S were performed on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were anticipated. Results: The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be 12.2% (386/3161, 11.8% (519/4381, 11.1% (649/5867, 13% (908/6983, 14% (1385/9911 and 17.34% (1756/10133 in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence without any plateau. Conclusion: Epidemiological studies should be carried out in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS.

Safety, economic incentives and insurance in the Norwegian petroleum industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osmundsen, Petter; Aven, Terje; Erik Vinnem, Jan

2008-01-01

There is an increased use of key performance indicators and incentive schemes in the petroleum industry. Applying modern incentive theory, we explore what implications this management trend has for injury and major accident prevention efforts and safety. Can economic incentives be designed for accident prevention activities? In cases where this is not possible, what are the challenges for the safety efforts? In particular, how are safety efforts affected by enhanced economic incentives for other performance dimensions like production and rate of return? Can safety be neglected? What remedies are available?

Trends in predicted chemoselectivity of cytochrome P450 oxidation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rydberg, Patrik; Lonsdale, Richard; Harvey, Jeremy N

2014-01-01

to a double bond has been performed using B3LYP and B3LYP-D3. Relevant experimental data on oxidation selectivity has also been assessed. The results show that density functional theory, when using B3LYP-D3, does well in reproducing the experimental trends. Considering that the comparison involves chemical...... steps with quite different features this is remarkable. We also find that B3LYP consistently underestimates the hydrogen abstraction barriers relative to the epoxidation barriers, and that including a dispersion correction reduces this problem....

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

Science.gov (United States)

Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

1985-01-01

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Reactor safety; Description and evaluation of safety activities in Nordic countries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wahlstroem, B.; Gunsell, L.

1998-03-01

The report gives a description of safety activities in the nuclear power industry. The study has been carried out as a part of the four year programme in Nordic Safety Research (NKS) which was completed in 1997. The objective of the NKS/RAK-1.1 project 'A survey and an evaluation of safety activities in nuclear power' was to make a broad description of various activities important for safety and to make an assessment of their efficiency. A special consideration was placed on a comparison of practices in Finland and Sweden, and between their nuclear utilities. The study has been divided into two parts, one theoretical part in which a model of the relationships between various activities important for safety has been constructed and one practical part where a total of 62 persons have been interviewed at the authorities, the nuclear utilities and one reactor vendor. To restrict the amount of work two activities, safety analysis and experience feedback, were selected. A few cases connected to incidents at nuclear power plants were discussed in more detail. The report has been structured around a simple model of nuclear safety consisting of the concepts of goals, means and outcomes. This model illustrates the importance of goal formulation, systematic planning and feedback of operational experience as major components in nuclear safety. In assessing organisation and management at authorities and the power utilities there is a clear trend of decentralisation and delegation of authority. The general impression from the study is that the safety activities in Finland and Sweden are efficient and well targeted. The experience from the methodology is favourable and the comparison of practices gives a good ground for a discussion of contents and targeting of safety activities. (EG) activities. (EG)

Safety culture management and quantitative indicator evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mandula, J.

2002-01-01

This report discuses a relationship between safety culture and evaluation of quantitative indicators. It shows how a systematic use of generally shared operational safety indicators may contribute to formation and reinforcement of safety culture characteristics in routine plant operation. The report also briefly describes the system of operational safety indicators used at the Dukovany plant. It is a PC database application enabling an effective work with the indicators and providing all users with an efficient tool for making synoptic overviews of indicator values in their links and hierarchical structure. Using color coding, the system allows quick indicator evaluation against predefined limits considering indicator value trends. The system, which has resulted from several-year development, was completely established at the plant during the years 2001 and 2002. (author)

A review of fatal accident incidence rate trends in fishing international

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Olaf; Pétursdóttir, G; Abrahamsen, Annbjørg

2014-01-01

Background. Injury prevention in fishing is one of the most important occupational health challenges. The aim was to describe and compare internationally the trends of the fatal injury incidence rates and to discuss the impact of the implemented safety programs. Methods. The review is based...... on journal articles and reports from the maritime authorities in Poland, UK, Norway, Iceland, Denmark, US and Alaska and Canada. The original incidence rates were recalculated as per 1000 person-years for international comparison of the trends. Results. The risk of fatal accidents in fishing in the northern...... countries has been reduced by around 50% to an average of about 1 per 1000 person-years. Norway and Canada keep the lowest rates with around 0.5 and 0.25 per 1000 person-years. About half of the fatal injuries are related to vessel disasters and drowning. The safety programs seem to have good effects still...

Divergent effects of transformational and passive leadership on employee safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelloway, E Kevin; Mullen, Jane; Francis, Lori

2006-01-01

The authors concurrently examined the impact of safety-specific transformational leadership and safety-specific passive leadership on safety outcomes. First, the authors demonstrated via confirmatory factor analysis that safety-specific transformational leadership and safety-specific passive leadership are empirically distinct constructs. Second, using hierarchical regression, the authors illustrated, contrary to a stated corollary of transformational leadership theory (B. M. Bass, 1997), that passive leadership contributes incrementally to the prediction of organizationally relevant outcomes, in this case safety-related variables, beyond transformational leadership alone. Third, further analyses via structural equation modeling showed that both transformational and passive leadership have opposite effects on safety climate and safety consciousness, and these variables, in turn, predict safety events and injuries. Implications for research and application are discussed. Copyright 2006 APA.

The critical safety functions and plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corcoran, W.R.; Church, J.F.; Cross, M.T.; Guinn, W.M.; Porter, N.J.

1981-01-01

The operator's role in nuclear safety is outlined and the concept of ''safety functions'' introduced. Safety functions are a group of actions that prevent core melt or minimize radiation releases to the general public. They can be used to provide a hierarchy of practical plant protection that an operator should use. The plant safety evaluation uses four inputs in predicting the results of an event: the event initiator, the plant design, the initial plant conditions and setup, and the operator actions. If any of these inputs are not as assumed in the evaluation, confidence that the consequences will be as predicted is reduced. Based on the safety evaluation, the operator has three roles in assuring that the consequences of an event will be no worse than the predicted acceptable results: Maintain plant setup in readiness to properly respond. Operate the plant in a manner such that fewer, milder events minimize the frequency and the severity of adverse events. Monitor the plant to verify that the safety functions are accomplished. The operator needs a systematic approach to mitigating the consequences of an event. The concept of safety functions introduces this systematic approach and presents a hierarchy of protection. If the operator has difficulty identifying an event for any reason, the systematic safety function approach allows accomplishing the overall path of mitigating consequences. Ten functions designed to protect against core melt, preserve containment integrity, prevent indirect release of radioactivity, and maintain vital auxiliaries needed to support the other safety functions are identified

Reactor Safety Research: Semiannual report, January-June 1986: Reactor Safety Research Program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-05-01

Sandia National Laboratories is conducting, under USNRC sponsorship, phenomenological research related to the safety of commercial nuclear power reactors. The research includes experiments to simulate the phenomenology of accident conditions and the development of analytical models, verified by experiment, which can be used to predict reactor and safety systems performance behavior under abnormal conditions. The objective of this work is to provide NRC requisite data bases and analytical methods to (1) identify and define safety issues, (2) understand the progression of risk-significant accident sequences, and (3) conduct safety assessments. The collective NRC-sponsored effort at Sandia National Laboratories is directed at enhancing the technology base supporting licensing decisions

Prediction of selected Indian stock using a partitioning–interpolation based ARIMA–GARCH model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Narendra Babu

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Accurate long-term prediction of time series data (TSD is a very useful research challenge in diversified fields. As financial TSD are highly volatile, multi-step prediction of financial TSD is a major research problem in TSD mining. The two challenges encountered are, maintaining high prediction accuracy and preserving the data trend across the forecast horizon. The linear traditional models such as autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH preserve data trend to some extent, at the cost of prediction accuracy. Non-linear models like ANN maintain prediction accuracy by sacrificing data trend. In this paper, a linear hybrid model, which maintains prediction accuracy while preserving data trend, is proposed. A quantitative reasoning analysis justifying the accuracy of proposed model is also presented. A moving-average (MA filter based pre-processing, partitioning and interpolation (PI technique are incorporated by the proposed model. Some existing models and the proposed model are applied on selected NSE India stock market data. Performance results show that for multi-step ahead prediction, the proposed model outperforms the others in terms of both prediction accuracy and preserving data trend.

The Safety Attitudes of Senior Managers in the Chinese Coal Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiangshi Zhang

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Senior managers’ attitudes towards safety are very important regarding the safety practices in an organization. The study is to describe the current situation of senior managers′ attitudes towards safety in the Chinese coal industry. Method: We evaluated the changing trends as well as the reasons for these changes in the Chinese coal industry in 2009 and in 2014 with 168 senior manager samples from large Chinese state-owned coal enterprises. Evaluations of 15 safety concepts were performed by means of a questionnaire. Results and Conclusions: Results indicate that, in 2014, three concepts were at a very high level (mean > 4.5, and six were at a relatively high level (4.5 > mean > 4.0. Analyses of changing trends revealed that nine concepts improved significantly, while four greatly declined in 2014 compared to those in 2009. The data reported here suggest that the reasons for the significant improvement with respect to the nine concepts include the improvement in social and legal environments, the improvement of the culture of social safety, workers′ safety demands being met, and scientific and technical advances in the coal industry. The decline of the four concepts seemed to be caused by a poor awareness of managers in the coal industry that safety creates economic benefits, insufficient information on safety, inadequate attention to the development of a safety culture and safety management methods, and safety organizations and workers′ unions not playing their role effectively. Practical Applications: We therefore recommend strengthening the evidence that safety creates economic benefits, providing incentives for employees to encourage their participation in safety management, and paying more attention to the prevention of accidents in coal mines via safety organizations and unions. These results can provide guidelines for workers, industrialists, and government regarding occupational safety in the whole coal industry.

The Safety Attitudes of Senior Managers in the Chinese Coal Industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jiangshi; Chen, Na; Fu, Gui; Yan, Mingwei; Kim, Young-Chan

2016-11-17

Introduction: Senior managers' attitudes towards safety are very important regarding the safety practices in an organization. The study is to describe the current situation of senior managers' attitudes towards safety in the Chinese coal industry. Method : We evaluated the changing trends as well as the reasons for these changes in the Chinese coal industry in 2009 and in 2014 with 168 senior manager samples from large Chinese state-owned coal enterprises. Evaluations of 15 safety concepts were performed by means of a questionnaire. Results and Conclusions : Results indicate that, in 2014, three concepts were at a very high level (mean > 4.5), and six were at a relatively high level (4.5 > mean > 4.0). Analyses of changing trends revealed that nine concepts improved significantly, while four greatly declined in 2014 compared to those in 2009. The data reported here suggest that the reasons for the significant improvement with respect to the nine concepts include the improvement in social and legal environments, the improvement of the culture of social safety, workers' safety demands being met, and scientific and technical advances in the coal industry. The decline of the four concepts seemed to be caused by a poor awareness of managers in the coal industry that safety creates economic benefits, insufficient information on safety, inadequate attention to the development of a safety culture and safety management methods, and safety organizations and workers' unions not playing their role effectively. Practical Applications : We therefore recommend strengthening the evidence that safety creates economic benefits, providing incentives for employees to encourage their participation in safety management, and paying more attention to the prevention of accidents in coal mines via safety organizations and unions. These results can provide guidelines for workers, industrialists, and government regarding occupational safety in the whole coal industry.

The Safety Attitudes of Senior Managers in the Chinese Coal Industry

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jiangshi; Chen, Na; Fu, Gui; Yan, Mingwei; Kim, Young-Chan

2016-01-01

Introduction: Senior managers’ attitudes towards safety are very important regarding the safety practices in an organization. The study is to describe the current situation of senior managers′ attitudes towards safety in the Chinese coal industry. Method: We evaluated the changing trends as well as the reasons for these changes in the Chinese coal industry in 2009 and in 2014 with 168 senior manager samples from large Chinese state-owned coal enterprises. Evaluations of 15 safety concepts were performed by means of a questionnaire. Results and Conclusions: Results indicate that, in 2014, three concepts were at a very high level (mean > 4.5), and six were at a relatively high level (4.5 > mean > 4.0). Analyses of changing trends revealed that nine concepts improved significantly, while four greatly declined in 2014 compared to those in 2009. The data reported here suggest that the reasons for the significant improvement with respect to the nine concepts include the improvement in social and legal environments, the improvement of the culture of social safety, workers′ safety demands being met, and scientific and technical advances in the coal industry. The decline of the four concepts seemed to be caused by a poor awareness of managers in the coal industry that safety creates economic benefits, insufficient information on safety, inadequate attention to the development of a safety culture and safety management methods, and safety organizations and workers′ unions not playing their role effectively. Practical Applications: We therefore recommend strengthening the evidence that safety creates economic benefits, providing incentives for employees to encourage their participation in safety management, and paying more attention to the prevention of accidents in coal mines via safety organizations and unions. These results can provide guidelines for workers, industrialists, and government regarding occupational safety in the whole coal industry. PMID:27869654

Research on trend of warm-humid climate in Central Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zhi; Peng, Dailiang; Wen, Jingyi; Cai, Zhanqing; Wang, Tiantian; Hu, Yuekai; Ma, Yaxin; Xu, Junfeng

2017-07-01

Central Asia is a typical arid area, which is sensitive and vulnerable part of climate changes, at the same time, Central Asia is the Silk Road Economic Belt of the core district, the warm-humid climate change will affect the production and economic development of neighboring countries. The average annual precipitation, average anneal temperature and evapotranspiration are the important indexes to weigh the climate change. In this paper, the annual precipitation, annual average temperature and evapotranspiration data of every pixel point in Central Asia are analyzed by using long-time series remote sensing data to analyze the trend of warm and humid conditions. Finally, using the model to analyzed the distribution of warm-dry trend, the warm-wet trend, the cold-dry trend and the cold-wet trend in Central Asia and Xinjiang area. The results showed that most of the regions of Central Asia were warm-humid and warm-dry trends, but only a small number of regions showed warm-dry and cold-dry trends. It is of great significance to study the climatic change discipline and guarantee the ecological safety and improve the ability to cope with climate change in the region. It also provide scientific basis for the formulation of regional climate change program. The first section in your paper

The new Space Shuttle Transportation System (STS) - Problem, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending program

Science.gov (United States)

Crawford, J. L.; Rodney, G. A.

1989-01-01

This paper describes the NASA Space Shuttle Trend Analysis program. The four main areas of the program - problem/reliability, performance, supportability, and programmatic trending - are defined, along with motivation for these areas, the statistical methods used, and illustrative Space Shuttle applications. Also described is the NASA Safety, Reliability, Maintainability and Quality Assurance (SRM&QA) Management Information Center, used to focus management attention on key near-term launch concerns and long-range mission trend issues. Finally, the computer data bases used to support the program and future program enhancements are discussed.

An invariance property of the common trends under linear transformations of the data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina

It is well known that if X(t) is a nonstationary process and Y(t) is a linear function of X(t), then cointegration of Y(t) implies cointegration of X(t). We want to find an analogous result for common trends if X(t) is generated by a finite order VAR. We first show that Y(t) has an infinite order...... VAR representation in terms of its prediction errors, which are a linear process in the prediction error for X(t). We then apply this result to show that the limit of the common trends for Y(t) are linear functions of the common trends for X(t)....

Predicting soil acidification trends at Plynlimon using the SAFE model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Reynolds

1997-01-01

Full Text Available The SAFE model has been applied to an acid grassland site, located on base-poor stagnopodzol soils derived from Lower Palaeozoic greywackes. The model predicts that acidification of the soil has occurred in response to increased acid deposition following the industrial revolution. Limited recovery is predicted following the decline in sulphur deposition during the mid to late 1970s. Reducing excess sulphur and NOx deposition in 1998 to 40% and 70% of 1980 levels results in further recovery but soil chemical conditions (base saturation, soil water pH and ANC do not return to values predicted in pre-industrial times. The SAFE model predicts that critical loads (expressed in terms of the (Ca+Mg+K:Alcrit ratio for six vegetation species found in acid grassland communities are not exceeded despite the increase in deposited acidity following the industrial revolution. The relative growth response of selected vegetation species characteristic of acid grassland swards has been predicted using a damage function linking growth to soil solution base cation to aluminium ratio. The results show that very small growth reductions can be expected for 'acid tolerant' plants growing in acid upland soils. For more sensitive species such as Holcus lanatus, SAFE predicts that growth would have been reduced by about 20% between 1951 and 1983, when acid inputs were greatest. Recovery to c. 90% of normal growth (under laboratory conditions is predicted as acidic inputs decline.

ISSUES AND RECENT TRENDS IN VEHICLE SAFETY COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadayuki TSUGAWA

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This paper surveys the research on the applications of inter-vehicle communications, the issues of the deployment and technology, and the current status of inter-vehicle communications projects in Europe, the United States and Japan. The inter-vehicle communications, defined here as communications between on-board ITS computers, improve road traffic safety and efficiency by expanding the horizon of the drivers and on-board sensors. One of the earliest studies on inter-vehicle communications began in Japan in the early 1980s. The inter-vehicle communications play an essential role in automated platooning and cooperative driving systems developed since the 1990's by enabling vehicles to obtain data that would be difficult or impossible to measure with on-board sensors. During these years, interest in applications for inter-vehicle communications increased in the EU, the US and Japan, resulting in many national vehicle safety communications projects such as CarTALK2000 in the EU and VSCC in the US. The technological issues include protocol and communications media. Experiments employ various kinds of protocols and typically use infrared, microwave or millimeter wave media. The situation is ready for standardization. The deployment strategy is another issue. To be feasible, deployment should begin with multiple rather than single services that would work even at a low penetration rate of the communication equipment. In addition, non-technological, legal and institutional issues remained unsolved. Although inter-vehicle communications involve many issues, such applications should be promoted because they will lead to safer and more efficient automobile traffic.

Measures to strengthen international co-operation in nuclear, radiation and transport safety and waste management. Nuclear safety review for the year 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

The Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2003 presents an overview of the current issues and trends in nuclear, radiation, transport and radioactive waste safety during 2003. As in 2002 the overview is supported by more detailed Notes by the Secretariat: Safety Related Events and Issues Worldwide during 2003 (document 2004/Note 6), The Agency's Safety Standards: Activities during 2003 (document 2004/Note 7) and Providing for the Application of the Safety Standards (document 2004/Note 8). In January 2003, the Agency implemented an organization change and developed an integrated approach to reflect a broader assignment of nuclear safety and nuclear security and to better exploit synergy between them. The Office of Physical Protection and Material Security renamed to Office of Nuclear Security was transferred from the Department of Safeguards to the Department of Nuclear Safety, which became the Department of Nuclear Safety and Security to reflect the change. This Review provides information primarily on nuclear safety, and nuclear security will be addressed in a separate report

Management commitment to safety vs. employee perceived safety training and association with future injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Verma, Santosh K; Chang, Wen-Ruey; Courtney, Theodore K; Lombardi, David A; Brennan, Melanye J; Perry, Melissa J

2012-07-01

The purpose of this study is to explore and examine, specific to the restaurant industry, two important constructs emerging from the safety climate literature: employee perceptions of safety training and management commitment to safety. Are these two separate constructs? Are there both individual- and shared group-level safety perceptions for these two constructs? What are the relationships between these two constructs and future injury outcomes? A total of 419 employees from 34 limited-service restaurants participated in a prospective cohort study. Employees' perceptions of management commitment to safety and safety training and demographic variables were collected at the baseline. The survey questions were made available in three languages: English, Spanish, and Portuguese. For the following 12 weeks, participants reported their injury experience and weekly work hours. A multivariate negative binomial generalized estimating equation model with compound symmetry covariance structure was used to assess the association between the rate of self-reported injuries and measures of safety perceptions. Even though results showed that the correlation between employees'perceived safety training and management commitment to safety was high, confirmatory factor analysis of measurement models showed that two separate factors fit the model better than as two dimensions of a single factor. Homogeneity tests showed that there was a shared perception of the factor of management commitment to safety for the restaurant workers but there was no consistent perception among them for the factor of perceived safety training. Both individual employees'perceived management commitment to safety and perceptions of safety training can predict employees' subsequent injuries above and beyond demographic variables. However, there was no significant relationship between future injury and employees' shared perception of management commitment to safety. Further, our results suggest that the

The influence of individual and team cognitive ability on operators' task and safety performance: a multilevel field study in nuclear power plants.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingyu Zhang

Full Text Available While much research has investigated the predictors of operators' performance such as personality, attitudes and motivation in high-risk industries, its cognitive antecedents and boundary conditions have not been fully investigated. Based on a multilevel investigation of 312 nuclear power plant main control room operators from 50 shift teams, the present study investigated how general mental ability (GMA at both individual and team level can influence task and safety performance. At the individual level, operators' GMA was predictive of their task and safety performance and this trend became more significant as they accumulated more experience. At the team level, we found team GMA had positive influences on all three performance criteria. However, we also found a "big-fish-little-pond" effect insofar as team GMA had a relatively smaller effect and inhibited the contribution of individual GMA to workers' extra-role behaviors (safety participation compared to its clear beneficial influence on in-role behaviors (task performance and safety compliance. The possible mechanisms related to learning and social comparison processes are discussed.

The influence of individual and team cognitive ability on operators' task and safety performance: a multilevel field study in nuclear power plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jingyu; Li, Yongjuan; Wu, Changxu

2013-01-01

While much research has investigated the predictors of operators' performance such as personality, attitudes and motivation in high-risk industries, its cognitive antecedents and boundary conditions have not been fully investigated. Based on a multilevel investigation of 312 nuclear power plant main control room operators from 50 shift teams, the present study investigated how general mental ability (GMA) at both individual and team level can influence task and safety performance. At the individual level, operators' GMA was predictive of their task and safety performance and this trend became more significant as they accumulated more experience. At the team level, we found team GMA had positive influences on all three performance criteria. However, we also found a "big-fish-little-pond" effect insofar as team GMA had a relatively smaller effect and inhibited the contribution of individual GMA to workers' extra-role behaviors (safety participation) compared to its clear beneficial influence on in-role behaviors (task performance and safety compliance). The possible mechanisms related to learning and social comparison processes are discussed.

State of arts and outlook of research reactor safety management promoted by IAEA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hao Xiaofeng

2005-01-01

This paper presents the recent activities of IAEA on the research reactor safety, and the trends in the future. According to the present situation of national research reactors, some suggestions are proposed for the cooperation with IAEA on research reactor safety. (author)

Nuclear power and nuclear safety 2009; Kernekraft og nuklear sikkerhed 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lauritzen, B.; OElgaard, P.L. (eds.); Nonboel, E. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Kampmann, D.; Nystrup, P.E.; Thorlaksen, B. (Beredskabsstyrelsen, Birkeroed (Denmark))

2010-05-15

The report is the seventh report in a series of annual reports on the international development of nuclear power production, with special emphasis on safety issues and nuclear emergency preparedness. The report is written in collaboration between Risoe DTU and the Danish Emergency Management Agency. The report for 2009 covers the following topics: status of nuclear power production, regional trends, reactor development, safety related events, international relations, conflicts and the European safety directive. (LN)

Cardiac safety strategies. 25-26 October 2005, the Radisson SAS Hotel, Nice, France.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanton, Gilles; Tilbury, Lorraine

2006-03-01

This meeting was organised by IIR Life Sciences. It was chaired by Brian Guth, (head of General Pharmacology at Boehringer Ingelheim Pharma) and brought together scientists and clinicians from the pharmaceutical industry, university and regulatory agencies. The meeting presented emerging trends in cardiac safety, including its regulatory context pertaining to ICH S7A, S7B and E14. ICH S7A and S7B highlight the importance of the hERG test and telemetric studies in non-rodents. ICH E14 describes the clinical 'thorough QT study' that is required by the FDA for any new drug. Marked physiological variability in QT interval over time can be observed, partly as a result of fluctuation in autonomic tone. Beat-to-beat QT variability and T-wave morphology should be considered as a part of an integrated estimate of proarrhythmic risk. A case study illustrated the predictivity of preclinical data for proarrhythmic risk in humans, showing the importance of evaluating QT effects in patients to establish a safety margin.

Particle swarm optimization-based least squares support vector regression for critical heat flux prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, B.T.; Zhao, F.Y.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► CHF data are collected from the published literature. ► Less training data are used to train the LSSVR model. ► PSO is adopted to optimize the key parameters to improve the model precision. ► The reliability of LSSVR is proved through parametric trends analysis. - Abstract: In view of practical importance of critical heat flux (CHF) for design and safety of nuclear reactors, accurate prediction of CHF is of utmost significance. This paper presents a novel approach using least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) to predict CHF. Two available published datasets are used to train and test the proposed algorithm, in which PSO is employed to search for the best parameters involved in LSSVR model. The CHF values obtained by the LSSVR model are compared with the corresponding experimental values and those of a previous method, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). This comparison is also carried out in the investigation of parametric trends of CHF. It is found that the proposed method can achieve the desired performance and yields a more satisfactory fit with experimental results than ANFIS. Therefore, LSSVR method is likely to be suitable for other parameters processing such as CHF

Nuclear power internationally, status and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laue, H.J.

1988-01-01

The recent events have stimulated the discussion concerning the human factor in nuclear engineering. Without a guarantee of the reliability and responsibility of everybody concerned, both directly and indirectly, the future of nuclear power will look bleak in an increasing number of countries. The present status and probable future development of nuclear power are outlined, and general trends are discussed. The future use of nuclear power will be concentrated in countries of high political stability which can assure safety, availability and economic efficiency. (orig.) [de

Enhancing Public Helicopter Safety as a Component of Homeland Security

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

Risk Assessment Tool GPS Global Positioning System IFR instrument flight rules ILS instrument landing system IMC instrument meteorological...daily operations. Additionally, the effectiveness of the standards is evaluated by determining if these standards would have prevented the accidents...trends, such as human behavior and lack of standards, that are common in public safety helicopter accidents. Public safety aviation agencies can use this

Disentangling the roles of safety climate and safety culture: Multi-level effects on the relationship between supervisor enforcement and safety compliance.

Science.gov (United States)

Petitta, Laura; Probst, Tahira M; Barbaranelli, Claudio; Ghezzi, Valerio

2017-02-01

Despite increasing attention to contextual effects on the relationship between supervisor enforcement and employee safety compliance, no study has yet explored the conjoint influence exerted simultaneously by organizational safety climate and safety culture. The present study seeks to address this literature shortcoming. We first begin by briefly discussing the theoretical distinctions between safety climate and culture and the rationale for examining these together. Next, using survey data collected from 1342 employees in 32 Italian organizations, we found that employee-level supervisor enforcement, organizational-level safety climate, and autocratic, bureaucratic, and technocratic safety culture dimensions all predicted individual-level safety compliance behaviors. However, the cross-level moderating effect of safety climate was bounded by certain safety culture dimensions, such that safety climate moderated the supervisor enforcement-compliance relationship only under the clan-patronage culture dimension. Additionally, the autocratic and bureaucratic culture dimensions attenuated the relationship between supervisor enforcement and compliance. Finally, when testing the effects of technocratic safety culture and cooperative safety culture, neither safety culture nor climate moderated the relationship between supervisor enforcement and safety compliance. The results suggest a complex relationship between organizational safety culture and safety climate, indicating that organizations with particular safety cultures may be more likely to develop more (or less) positive safety climates. Moreover, employee safety compliance is a function of supervisor safety leadership, as well as the safety climate and safety culture dimensions prevalent within the organization. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of experience and trends in international co-operation in nuclear safety and licensing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stadie, K.B.; Strohl, P.

1977-01-01

The paper traces the development of co-operation in nuclear safety technology between the OECD Member countries which began as early as 1965 and is now organised under the auspices of the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency. The principal objective is to exchange and evaluate information on relevant R and D and hence broaden the technical basis for decision-making by licensing authorities in the different countries. The membership of the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations combines expertise in nuclear safety R and D and in licensing questions so that licensing procedures in the different countries may be exposed continuously to the influence of overall technological progress. The Committee actively seeks to narrow the differences between administrative procedures and traditional legal practices in Member countries as these affect the licensing of nuclear installations, primarily by assessing and comparing the methods employed. The paper shows how the Committee's working arrangements provide for maximum flexibility: the various co-ordinated programmes are selected after in-depth evaluation of potential areas of priority and are implemented through ad hoc Working Groups, specialist meetings or task forces, or in the form of special studies involving all interested countries. The results, conclusions and recommendations emerging from each programme are reviewed by the Committee before dissemination. Hitherto the greater part of the Committee's activities has been concerned with the safety of light water reactors and related subjects, but more attention is now being given to other topics such as LMFBR safety technology and the safety of fuel cycle facilities, particularly those at the end of the process, the so-called ''back-end'' plants. The paper discusses certain problems and constraints encountered in implementing the programme, some of which stem from Member countries' different degrees of penetration

Residential aged care in Auckland, New Zealand 1988-2008: do real trends over time match predictions?

Science.gov (United States)

Broad, Joanna B; Boyd, Michal; Kerse, Ngaire; Whitehead, Noeline; Chelimo, Carol; Lay-Yee, Roy; von Randow, Martin; Foster, Susan; Connolly, Martin J

2011-07-01

in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 7.7% of those aged over 65 years lived in licenced residential aged care. Age-specific rates approximately doubled for each 5-year age group after the age of 65 years. Even with changes in policies and market forces since 1988, population increases are forecast to drive large growth in demand. This study shows previously unrecognised 20-year trends in rates of care in a geographically defined population. four cross-sectional surveys of all facilities (rest homes and hospitals) licenced for long-term care of older people were conducted in Auckland, New Zealand in 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2008. Facility staff completed survey forms for each resident. Numbers of licenced and occupied beds and trends in age-specific and age-standardised rates in residential aged care are reported. over the 20-year period, Auckland's population aged over 65 years increased by 43% (from 91,000 to 130,000) but actual numbers in care reduced slightly. Among those aged over 65 years, the proportion living in care facilities reduced from 1 in 13 to 1 in 18. Age-standardised rates in rest-home level care reduced from 65 to 33 per thousand, and in hospital level care, from 29 to 23 per thousand. Had rates remained stable, over 13,200 people, 74% more than observed, would have been in care in 2008. growth predicted in the residential aged care sector is not yet evident. The introduction of standardised needs assessments before entry, increased availability of home-based services, and growth in retirement villages may have led to reduced utilisation.

Safety climate and self-reported injury: assessing the mediating role of employee safety control.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yueng-Hsiang; Ho, Michael; Smith, Gordon S; Chen, Peter Y

2006-05-01

To further reduce injuries in the workplace, companies have begun focusing on organizational factors which may contribute to workplace safety. Safety climate is an organizational factor commonly cited as a predictor of injury occurrence. Characterized by the shared perceptions of employees, safety climate can be viewed as a snapshot of the prevailing state of safety in the organization at a discrete point in time. However, few studies have elaborated plausible mechanisms through which safety climate likely influences injury occurrence. A mediating model is proposed to link safety climate (i.e., management commitment to safety, return-to-work policies, post-injury administration, and safety training) with self-reported injury through employees' perceived control on safety. Factorial evidence substantiated that management commitment to safety, return-to-work policies, post-injury administration, and safety training are important dimensions of safety climate. In addition, the data support that safety climate is a critical factor predicting the history of a self-reported occupational injury, and that employee safety control mediates the relationship between safety climate and occupational injury. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating organizational factors and workers' characteristics in efforts to improve organizational safety performance.

Improving construction site safety through leader-based verbal safety communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Kines, Pete; Andersen, Lars P S; Spangenberg, Soren; Mikkelsen, Kim L; Dyreborg, Johnny; Zohar, Dov

2010-10-01

The construction industry is one of the most injury-prone industries, in which production is usually prioritized over safety in daily on-site communication. Workers have an informal and oral culture of risk, in which safety is rarely openly expressed. This paper tests the effect of increasing leader-based on-site verbal safety communication on the level of safety and safety climate at construction sites. A pre-post intervention-control design with five construction work gangs is carried out. Foremen in two intervention groups are coached and given bi-weekly feedback about their daily verbal safety communications with their workers. Foremen-worker verbal safety exchanges (experience sampling method, n=1,693 interviews), construction site safety level (correct vs. incorrect, n=22,077 single observations), and safety climate (seven dimensions, n=105 questionnaires) are measured over a period of up to 42 weeks. Baseline measurements in the two intervention and three control groups reveal that foremen speak with their workers several times a day. Workers perceive safety as part of their verbal communication with their foremen in only 6-16% of exchanges, and the levels of safety at the sites range from 70-87% (correct observations). Measurements from baseline to follow-up in the two intervention groups reveal that safety communication between foremen and workers increases significantly in one of the groups (factor 7.1 increase), and a significant yet smaller increase is found when the two intervention groups are combined (factor 4.6). Significant increases in the level of safety are seen in both intervention groups (7% and 12% increases, respectively), particularly in regards to 'access ways' and 'railings and coverings' (39% and 84% increases, respectively). Increases in safety climate are seen in only one of the intervention groups with respect to their 'attention to safety.' No significant trend changes are seen in the three control groups on any of the three measures

Predictive time-series modeling using artificial neural networks for Linac beam symmetry: an empirical study.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Qiongge; Chan, Maria F

2017-01-01

Over half of cancer patients receive radiotherapy (RT) as partial or full cancer treatment. Daily quality assurance (QA) of RT in cancer treatment closely monitors the performance of the medical linear accelerator (Linac) and is critical for continuous improvement of patient safety and quality of care. Cumulative longitudinal QA measurements are valuable for understanding the behavior of the Linac and allow physicists to identify trends in the output and take preventive actions. In this study, artificial neural networks (ANNs) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series prediction modeling techniques were both applied to 5-year daily Linac QA data. Verification tests and other evaluations were then performed for all models. Preliminary results showed that ANN time-series predictive modeling has more advantages over ARMA techniques for accurate and effective applicability in the dosimetry and QA field. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

White paper on nuclear safety in 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-04-01

This report is composed of three parts and a subjective part Part 1 includes special articles on the measures for the security of nuclear safety and the future problems described from the beginning of the security. Taking consideration that there exists potential risk in the utilization of nuclear energy in addition to the previous accidents in the area of nuclear energy, future measures to take for safety security were discussed as well as the reorganization of government facilities. In addition, the measures for nuclear safety according to the special nuclear disaster countermeasure law and the future problems were described. In Part 2, the trend of nuclear safety in 2000 and the actual effects of 'the basic principle for the countermeasures of the hour' proposed by the nuclear safety commission were outlined. Moreover, the activities of the commission in 2000 were briefly described. In Part 3, various activities for security of nuclear safety, the safety regulation system and the disaster protection system in nuclear facilities, nuclear safety researches in Japan were described in addition to international cooperation as to nuclear safety. Finally, various materials related to the nuclear safety commission, and the materials on the practical activities for nuclear safety were listed in the subjective part. (M.N.)

RepoSTAR. A Code package for control and evaluation of statistical calculations with the program package RepoTREND; RepoSTAR. Ein Codepaket zur Steuerung und Auswertung statistischer Rechenlaeufe mit dem Programmpaket RepoTREND

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Becker, Dirk-Alexander

2016-05-15

The program package RepoTREND for the integrated long terms safety analysis of final repositories allows besides deterministic studies of defined problems also statistical or probabilistic analyses. Probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are realized in the program package repoTREND by a specific statistic frame called RepoSTAR. The report covers the following issues: concept, sampling and data supply of single simulations, evaluation of statistical calculations with the program RepoSUN.

The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

2012-01-01

Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

INTEGRATED HSEQ MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS: DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS

OpenAIRE

Osmo Kauppila; Janne Härkönen; Seppo Väyrynen

2015-01-01

The integration of health and safety, environmental and quality (HSEQ) management systems has become a current topic in the 21st century, as the need for systems thinking has grown along with the number of management system standards. This study aims to map current developments and trends in integrated HSEQ management. Three viewpoints are taken: the current state of the main HSEQ management standards, research literature on integrated management systems (IMS), and a case study of an industry...

Nuclear criticality predictability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briggs, J.B.

1999-01-01

As a result of lots of efforts, a large portion of the tedious and redundant research and processing of critical experiment data has been eliminated. The necessary step in criticality safety analyses of validating computer codes with benchmark critical data is greatly streamlined, and valuable criticality safety experimental data is preserved. Criticality safety personnel in 31 different countries are now using the 'International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments'. Much has been accomplished by the work of the ICSBEP. However, evaluation and documentation represents only one element of a successful Nuclear Criticality Safety Predictability Program and this element only exists as a separate entity, because this work was not completed in conjunction with the experimentation process. I believe; however, that the work of the ICSBEP has also served to unify the other elements of nuclear criticality predictability. All elements are interrelated, but for a time it seemed that communications between these elements was not adequate. The ICSBEP has highlighted gaps in data, has retrieved lost data, has helped to identify errors in cross section processing codes, and has helped bring the international criticality safety community together in a common cause as true friends and colleagues. It has been a privilege to associate with those who work so diligently to make the project a success. (J.P.N.)

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

Trends in Internet Marketing

OpenAIRE

Panchanathan, Nitin

2005-01-01

Internet marketing involves the usage of the Internet to market and sell goods or services. In this thesis we wished to seek answers for the following questions with the help of web, email surveys taking into consideration consumer perspective, company perspective and 3rd party internet marketing agency perspective. Our survey sample was based on a small set of companies, consumers and internet marketing agencies. The survey results helped us in predicting the trends in internet marketing. We...

The future trends for research on quality and safety of animal products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nigel D. Scollan

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Quality must now be considered as a convergence between consumers' wishes and needs and the intrinsic and extrinsic quality attributes of food products. The increasing number of quality attributes which must be considered, increasing globalisation and the heterogeneity in consumption habits between countries are making this convergence progressively more difficult. In parallel, science is rapidly evolving (with the advent of genomics for instance, and a growing number of applications is thus expected for the improvement of food safety and quality. Among the meat and fish quality attributes, colour is very important because it determines, at least in part, consumer choice. The key targets to ensure a satisfactory colour are animal nutrition and management for fish, processing and product conditioning for meat. Tenderness and flavour continue to be important issues for the consumer because eating remains a pleasure. They both determine quality experience which itself influences repetitive purchase. Meat tenderness is a very complex problem which can be solved only by a holistic approach involving all the factors from conception, animal breeding and production, muscle biology and slaughter practice to carcass processing and meat preparation at the consumer end. Today, safety and healthiness are among the most important issues. Unfortunately, animal products can potentially be a source of biological and chemical contamination for consumers. The introduction of both control strategies along the food chain and the development of a food safety management system, from primary production to the domestic environment, are key issues that must be achieved. Despite a high dietary supply of saturated fats by dairy and meat products, it is imperative that professionals involved in animal research and in the associated industry convey the positive nutritional contributions of animal products to both consumers and health professionals. The latter include protein

Radiation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Riessen, A.

2002-01-01

Full text: Experience has shown that modem, fully enclosed, XRF and XRD units are generally safe. This experience may lead to complacency and ultimately a lowering of standards which may lead to accidents. Maintaining awareness of radiation safety issues is thus an important role for all radiation safety officers. With the ongoing progress in technology, a greater number of radiation workers are more likely to use a range of instruments/techniques - eg portable XRF, neutron beam analysis, and synchrotron radiation analysis. The source for each of these types of analyses is different and necessitates an understanding of the associated dangers as well as use of specific radiation badges. The trend of 'suitcase science' is resulting in scientists receiving doses from a range of instruments and facilities with no coordinated approach to obtain an integrated dose reading for an individual. This aspect of radiation safety needs urgent attention. Within Australia a divide is springing up between those who work on Commonwealth property and those who work on State property. For example a university staff member may operate irradiating equipment on a University campus and then go to a CSIRO laboratory to operate similar equipment. While at the University State regulations apply and while at CSIRO Commonwealth regulations apply. Does this individual require two badges? Is there a need to obtain two licences? The application of two sets of regulations causes unnecessary confusion and increases the workload of radiation safety officers. Radiation safety officers need to introduce risk management strategies to ensure that both existing and new procedures result in risk minimisation. A component of this strategy includes ongoing education and revising of regulations. AXAA may choose to contribute to both of these activities as a service to its members as well as raising the level of radiation safety for all radiation workers. Copyright (2002) Australian X-ray Analytical

Effects of MHRA drug safety advice on time trends in prescribing volume and indices of clinical toxicity for quinine

Science.gov (United States)

Acheampong, Paul; Cooper, Gill; Khazaeli, Behshad; Lupton, David J; White, Sue; May, Margaret T; Thomas, Simon H L

2013-01-01

Aims To ascertain the effects of the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency's (MHRA) safety update in June 2010 on the volume of prescribing of quinine and on indices of quinine toxicity. Methods We analysed quarterly primary care total and quinine prescribing data for England and quinine prescribing volume for individual Primary Care Trusts in the North East of England from 2007/8 to 2011/12 obtained from the ePACT.net database. We also analysed quinine toxicity enquiries to the National Poisons Information Service (NPIS) via Toxbase® and by telephone between 2004/5 and 2011/12. Joinpoint regression and Pearson's correlation tests were used to ascertain changes in trends in prescribing and indices of toxicity and associations between prescribing and indices of toxicity, respectively. Results Total prescribing continued to increase, but annual growth in quinine prescribing in England declined from 6.0 to −0.6% following the MHRA update [difference −0.04 (95% confidence interval −0.07 to −0.01) quinine prescriptions per 100 patients per quarter, P = 0.0111]. Much larger reductions were observed in Primary Care Trusts that introduced comprehensive prescribing reviews. The previously increasing trend in Toxbase® quinine searches was reversed [difference −19.76 (95% confidence interval −39.28 to −9.20) user sessions per quarter, P = 0.0575]. Telephone enquiries to NPIS for quinine have declined, with stabilization of the proportion of moderate to severe cases of quinine poisoning since the update. Conclusions The MHRA advice was followed by limited reductions in the growth in quinine prescribing and in indicators of quinine overdose and toxicity. Quinine prescribing, however, remains common, and further efforts are needed to reduce availability and use. PMID:23594200

Demonstrating a correlation between the maturity of road safety practices and road safety incidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Amador, Luis; Willis, Christopher Joseph

2014-01-01

argue that the use of gross domestic product (GDP) as a predictor of road safety incidents suffers from the presumptive assumption that the only criterion that matters is national income, therefore erroneously predicting that richer countries all perform approximately the same in fatalities and that developing nations are at various stages, with high variability and uncertainty in prediction. It is proposed that an aggregation of individual maturity scores from road safety practices will lead to a better indicator for policy because it connects externalities (fatalities/injuries) with intrinsic factors for which policies can be oriented.

Safety issues for superconducting fusion magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsieh, S.Y.; Reich, M.; Powell, J.R.

1978-01-01

Safety issues for future superconducting fusion magnet systems are examined. It is found that safety and failure experience with existing superconducting magnets is not very applicable to predictions as to the safety and reliability of fusion magnets. Such predictions will have to depend on analysis and judgement for many years to come, rather than on accumulated experience. A number of generic potential structural, thermal-hydraulic, and electrical safety problems are identified and analyzed. Prevention of quenches and non-uniform temperature distributions, if quenches should occur, is of great importance, since such events can trigger processes which lead to magnet damage or failure. Engineered safety features will be necessary for fusion magnets. Two of these, an energy dispersion system and external coil containment, appear capable of reducing the probability of coil disruption to very low levels. However, they do not prevent loss of function accidents which are of economic concern. Elaborate detector, temperature equalization, and energy removal systems will be required to minimize the chances of loss of function accidents

Nuclear energy - overview of development trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

Proceeding from the organizational structure of the IAEA selected activities of the IAEA in connection with power reactor safety are dealt with. Based on the IAEA's computerized Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) a survey is presented of the most recent statistical data concerning status and trends of nuclear power plant development throughout the world. The central role of the IAEA in assisting Member States in the utilization of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes is underscored. Finally, a brief account of the state-of-the-art of the USSR's nuclear power programme is given

A practical due diligence strategy for managing the safety of contractors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catton, C.

1998-01-01

Ontario Hydro's Fossil Business has developed and implemented a practical program to ensure that the due diligence requirements for contractors are met, particularly in the health and safety area. Companies in the power generation business are hiring contractors to protect their competitive potential by having them perform specialty work outside the core business of generating electricity. The reasons behind this trend, and the need for companies to develop comprehensive contractor safety management systems to avoid legislative liability and cost overruns, and to have contractors work safely, are examined. The main elements of Ontario Hydro's Fossil Business Contractor Safety Management Program (contractor safety policy, contractor safety manual, contractor safety training, and a contractor safety performance database) are discussed. 2 figs., 2 appendices

Legislation for radiation protection and nuclear safety in the Republic of Croatia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Novosel, N.

1994-01-01

The main prerequisite of radiation protection and nuclear safety development and improvement in the Republic of Croatia are: national legislation for radiation protection and nuclear safety in accordance with international recommendations; and development of state infrastructure for organization and management of radiation protection and nuclear safety measures. In this paper I the following topics are present: inherited legislation for radiation protection and nuclear safety; modern trends in world nowadays; and what is done and has to be done in the Republic of Croatia to improve this situation

Safety-critical Java for embedded systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoeberl, Martin; Dalsgaard, Andreas Engelbredt; Hansen, René Rydhof

2016-01-01

This paper presents the motivation for and outcomes of an engineering research project on certifiable Javafor embedded systems. The project supports the upcoming standard for safety-critical Java, which defines asubset of Java and libraries aiming for development of high criticality systems....... The outcome of this projectinclude prototype safety-critical Java implementations, a time-predictable Java processor, analysis tools formemory safety, and example applications to explore the usability of safety-critical Java for this applicationarea. The text summarizes developments and key contributions...

Springback Prediction, Compensation and Correlation for Automotive Stamping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Siguang; Zhao Kunmin; Lanker, Terry; Zhang, Jimmy; Wang, C.T.

2005-01-01

To reduce weight and increase fuel efficiency and safety, more and more automotive sheet stamping parts are being made of aluminum and high strength steels. Forming of such materials encounters not just reduced formability but also dimensional quality problems. Springback prediction accuracy and compensation effectiveness have been the major challenge to die development, construction and tryout. In this paper, the factors that affect the accuracy of springback prediction are discussed, which includes the effect of material models, the selection of element size, and the contact algorithms. Springback predictions of several automotive aluminum and high strength panels are compared with measurement data. The examples show that the prediction correlates with measurement data in both springback trend and magnitude. The effect of springback on final product can be reduced or eliminated through process control and die face compensation. The process control method involves finding the root causes of springback and eliminating them through process modification. The geometrical compensation of die surface is a direct way to eliminate the springback effect. The global scaling compensation method is normally limited to parts with relatively small springback. For large springback and twisting, a new approach is discussed, which takes into account of the effect of deformation and springback history. The compensation is achieved iteratively by solving a system of non-linear equations. Production dies were cut to the compensated surface, which shows that the die compensation is an efficient way to reduce springback-induced geometry deviation

Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. M. Vogel

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

Recent trends in sea surface temperature off Mexico

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lluch-Cota, S.E.; Tripp-Valdéz, M.; Lluch-Cota, D.B.; Lluch-Belda, D.; Verbesselt, J.; Herrera-Cervantes, H.; Bautista-Romero, J.

2013-01-01

Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change

New risks and trends in the safety and health of women at work

OpenAIRE

Flaspöler, E; Hauke, A; Koppisch, D; Reinert, D; Koukoulaki, T; Vilkevicius, G; Žemės, L; Águila Martínez-Casariego, M; Baquero Martínez, M; González Lozar, L; Vega Martínez, S; López Riera, S; Carter, L; Leah, C; Gervais, R

2013-01-01

In 2009 and 2010, the Agency commissioned an update to its previous research on gender issues at\\ud work (EU-OSHA, 2003), which found that inequality both within and outside the workplace can have\\ud an effect on the health and safety of women at work. This report provides that update and the first\\ud figures on the effects of the recent economic downturn on women at work. It aims to fulfil the task\\ud outlined by the European strategy on health and safety at work (EC, 2002) for EU-OSHA’s Eur...

Analysis of Aviation Safety Reporting System Incident Data Associated with the Technical Challenges of the System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies Project

Science.gov (United States)

Withrow, Colleen A.; Reveley, Mary S.

2015-01-01

The Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies (SSAT) Project asked the AvSP Systems and Portfolio Analysis Team to identify SSAT-related trends. SSAT had four technical challenges: advance safety assurance to enable deployment of NextGen systems; automated discovery of precursors to aviation safety incidents; increasing safety of human-automation interaction by incorporating human performance, and prognostic algorithm design for safety assurance. This report reviews incident data from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) for system-component-failure- or-malfunction- (SCFM-) related and human-factor-related incidents for commercial or cargo air carriers (Part 121), commuter airlines (Part 135), and general aviation (Part 91). The data was analyzed by Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) part, phase of flight, SCFM category, human factor category, and a variety of anomalies and results. There were 38 894 SCFM-related incidents and 83 478 human-factorrelated incidents analyzed between January 1993 and April 2011.

Transformational leadership, intrinsic motivation, and trust: a moderated-mediated model of workplace safety.

Science.gov (United States)

Conchie, Stacey M

2013-04-01

Two studies examine the role of motivation and trust in the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' safety behavior. Study 1 tested the prediction that intrinsic and identified regulation motivations mediate the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' safety behaviors. Study 2 further explored this relationship by testing the prediction that the mediating role of intrinsic motivation is dependent on employees' level of trust in their leader. Survey data from the U.K. construction industry supported both predictions. However, the mediating role of intrinsic motivation was found only for challenge safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., voice) and not for affiliative safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., helping). These findings suggest that employees' intrinsic motivation is important to the effectiveness of leaders' efforts to promote some but not all forms of safety behavior.

Development and use of safety indicators at STUK

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tiipana, P.

2001-01-01

This paper gives an outline of the development and use of STUK's indicator system at the department of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (YTO) in the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, STUK. Indicators used at YTO are measures related to the safety of nuclear installations and regulatory activities. Indicators are numbers, ratios, percentages and amounts of interested matters that are for suitable for regulatory purposes, that is assessment and trending of the safety of nuclear installations and regulatory activities. STUK's indicator system is divided into two main areas: safety of nuclear facilities and regulatory activities. Safety of nuclear facilities is divided into 3 areas based on the concept of defence in de safety and quality culture, operational events and physical barriers. Regulatory activities are divided into 3 areas: working processes, resource management and regeneration and ability to work. These areas are measured using several indicators. At the moment some of indicators are included in YTO's management system to measure whether or not internally set goals are achieved. (author)

Trends and experiences in reactor coolant pump motors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1980-01-01

A review of the requirements and features of these motors is given as background along with a discussion of trends and experiences. Included are a discussion of thrust bearings and a review of safety related requirements and design features. Primary coolant pump motors are vertical induction motors for pumps that circulate huge quantities of water through the reactor core to carry the heat generated there to steam generator heat exchangers. 4 refs

A holistic approach to food safety risks: Food fraud as an example.

Science.gov (United States)

Marvin, Hans J P; Bouzembrak, Yamine; Janssen, Esmée M; van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, Esther D; Kleter, Gijs A

2016-11-01

Production of sufficient, safe and nutritious food is a global challenge faced by the actors operating in the food production chain. The performance of food-producing systems from farm to fork is directly and indirectly influenced by major changes in, for example, climate, demographics, and the economy. Many of these major trends will also drive the development of food safety risks and thus will have an effect on human health, local societies and economies. It is advocated that a holistic or system approach taking into account the influence of multiple "drivers" on food safety is followed to predict the increased likelihood of occurrence of safety incidents so as to be better prepared to prevent, mitigate and manage associated risks. The value of using a Bayesian Network (BN) modelling approach for this purpose is demonstrated in this paper using food fraud as an example. Possible links between food fraud cases retrieved from the RASFF (EU) and EMA (USA) databases and features of these cases provided by both the records themselves and additional data obtained from other sources are demonstrated. The BN model was developed from 1393 food fraud cases and 15 different data sources. With this model applied to these collected data on food fraud cases, the product categories that thus showed the highest probabilities of being fraudulent were "fish and seafood" (20.6%), "meat" (13.4%) and "fruits and vegetables" (10.4%). Features of the country of origin appeared to be important factors in identifying the possible hazards associated with a product. The model had a predictive accuracy of 91.5% for the fraud type and demonstrates how expert knowledge and data can be combined within a model to assist risk managers to better understand the factors and their interrelationships. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Invariance Property of the Common Trends under Linear Transformations of the Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Søren; Juselius, Katarina

It is well known that if X(t) is a nonstationary process and Y(t) is a linear function of X(t), then cointegration of Y(t) implies cointegration of X(t). We want to find an analogous result for common trends if X(t) is generated by a finite order VAR. We first show that Y(t) has an infinite order...... VAR representation in terms of its prediction errors, which are a linear process in the prediction error for X(t). We then apply this result to show that the limit of the common trends for Y(t) are linear functions of the common trends for X(t). We illustrate the findings with a small analysis...... of the term structure of interest rates....

Survey Result for the Safety Culture Attitude of HANARO in 2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, Jong Sup; An, Seok Hwa

2009-01-01

One of the important aims of a nuclear management system is to foster a strong safety culture. The safety culture activities for HANARO have been implemented and the importance of safety management in nuclear activities has also been emphasized since its first operation. HANARO developed its own safety culture indicators by referring to the IAEA's documents for the purpose of the evaluation of the safety culture attitude. In June 2008 a survey on the safety culture was conducted based on the new safety culture indicators. The result of the survey shows that the safety culture activities contribute positively to its safe operation. But it is necessary to encourage some activities like training, resources and organizational culture. The survey was helpful to understand the general trends of the safety attitudes and to set the safety culture activities necessary for the improvement of its safe operation

Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vestergaard, Anders; Justesen, Birgitte Larsen; Melsen, Charlotte

Title: Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia. Vestergaard A., Justesen B., Melsen C., Lyhne N., Department of Ophthal......Title: Uncorrected and Corrected Distance Visual Acuity, Predictability, Efficacy, and Safety after Femtosecond Laser in Situ Keratomileusis (FS-LASIK) and Refractive Lenticule extraction (ReLEx) for Moderate and High Myopia. Vestergaard A., Justesen B., Melsen C., Lyhne N., Department...... predictability, efficacy and safety after femtosecond LASIK (FS-LASIK) with ReLEx. Setting: Department of Ophthalmology, Odense University Hospital, Denmark. Methods: Retrospective study of results after FS-LASIK and ReLEx (including ReLEx flex, ReLEx pseudo-smile, and ReLEx smile). In total, 228 eyes were...... treated with FS-LASIK and 83 eyes with ReLEx, at the Department of Ophthalmology, Odense University Hospital in the period of April to November 2011. Only otherwise healthy myopic eyes with up to 3.00 D of astigmatism and with CDVA ≤ 0.30 (logMAR) before surgery were included in this study. FS-LASIK flaps...

Operating experience: safety perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piplani, Vivek; Krishnamurthy, P.R.; Kumar, Neeraj; Upadhyay, Devendra

2015-01-01

Operating Experience (OE) provides valuable information for improving NPP safety. This may include events, precursors, deviations, deficiencies, problems, new insights to safety, good practices, lessons and corrective actions. As per INSAG-10, an OE program caters as a fundamental means for enhancing the defence-in-depth at NPPs and hence should be viewed as ‘Continuous Safety Performance Improvement Tool’. The ‘Convention on Nuclear Safety’ also recognizes the OE as a tool of high importance for enhancing the NPP safety and its Article 19 mandates each contracting party to establish an effective OE program at operating NPPs. The lessons drawn from major accidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi NPPs had prompted nuclear stalwarts to change their safety perspective towards NPPs and to frame sound policies on issues like safety culture, severe accident prevention and mitigation. An effective OE program, besides correcting current/potential problems, help in proactively improving the NPP design, operating and maintenance procedures, practices, training, etc., and thus plays vital role in ensuring safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Further it enhances knowledge with regard to equipment operating characteristics, system performance trends and provides data for quantitative and qualitative safety analysis. Besides all above, an OE program inculcates a learning culture in the organisation and thus helps in continuously enhancing the expertise, technical competency and knowledge base of its staff. Nuclear and Radiation Facilities in India are regulated by Atomic Energy Regulatory Board (AERB). Operating Plants Safety Division (OPSD) of AERB is involved in managing operating experience activities. This paper provides insights about the operating experience program of OPSD, AERB (including its on-line data base namely OPSD STAR) and its utilisation in improving the regulations and safety at Indian NPPs/projects. (author)

Approaches to passive safety in advanced thermal reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moses, D.L.

1986-01-01

Since 1980, there has been a proliferation of thermal reactor designs which incorporate passive safety features. The evolution of this trend is briefly traced, and the nature of various passive safety features is discussed with regard to how they have been incorporated into evolving design concepts. The key aspects of the passive safety features include reduced core power density, enhanced passive heat sinks, inherent assured shutdown mechanisms, elimination/minimization of potential leak paths from the primary coolant systems, enhanced robustness of fuel elements and improved coolant chemistry and component materials. An increased reliance on purely passive safety features typically translates into larger reactor structures at reduced power ratings. Proponents of the most innovative concepts seek to offset the increased costs by simplifying licensing requirements and reducing construction time

Operation safety of complex industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zwingelstein, G.

1999-01-01

Zero fault or zero risk is an unreachable goal in industrial activities like nuclear activities. However, methods and techniques exist to reduce the risks to the lowest possible and acceptable level. The operation safety consists in the recognition, evaluation, prediction, measurement and mastery of technological and human faults. This paper analyses each of these points successively: 1 - evolution of operation safety; 2 - definitions and basic concepts: failure, missions and functions of a system and of its components, basic concepts and operation safety; 3 - forecasting analysis of operation safety: reliability data, data-banks, precautions for the use of experience feedback data; realization of an operation safety study: management of operation safety, quality assurance, critical review and audit of operation safety studies; 6 - conclusions. (J.S.)

Safety, Efficacy, Predictability and Stability Indices of Photorefractive Keratectomy for Correction of Myopic Astigmatism with Plano-Scan and Tissue-Saving Algorithms

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehrdad Mohammadpour

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To assess the safety, efficacy and predictability of photorefractive keratectomy (PRK [Tissue-saving (TS versus Plano-scan (PS ablation algorithms] of Technolas 217z excimer laser for correction of myopic astigmatismMethods: In this retrospective study one hundred and seventy eyes of 85 patients (107 eyes (62.9% with PS and 63 eyes (37.1% with TS algorithm were included. TS algorithm was applied for those with central corneal thickness less than 500 µm or estimated residual stromal thickness less than 420 µm. Mitomycin C (MMC was applied for 120 eyes (70.6%; in case of an ablation depth more than 60 μm and/or astigmatic correction more than one diopter (D. Mean sphere, cylinder, spherical equivalent (SE refraction, uncorrected visual acuity (UCVA, best corrected visual acuity (BCVA were measured preoperatively, and 4 weeks,12 weeks and 24 weeks postoperatively.Results: One, three and six months postoperatively, 60%, 92.9%, 97.5% of eyes had UCVA of 20/20 or better, respectively. Mean preoperative and 1, 3, 6 months postoperative SE were -3.48±1.28 D (-1.00 to -8.75, -0.08±0.62D, -0.02±0.57 and -0.004± 0.29, respectively. And also, 87.6%, 94.1% and 100% were within ±1.0 D of emmetropia and 68.2, 75.3, 95% were within ±0.5 of emmetropia. The safety and efficacy indices were 0.99 and 0.99 at 12 weeks and 1.009 and 0.99 at 24 weeks, respectively. There was no clinically or statistically significant difference between the outcomes of PS or TS algorithms or between those with or without MMC in either group in terms of safety, efficacy, predictability or stability. Dividing the eyes with subjective SE≤4 D and SE≥4 D postoperatively, there was no significant difference between the predictability of the two groups. There was no intra- or postoperative complication.Conclusion: Outcomes of PRK for correction of myopic astigmatism showed great promise with both PS and TS algorithms.

Plant safety and performance indicators for regulatory use

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferjancic, M.; Nemec, T.; Cimesa, S.

2004-01-01

Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) supervises nuclear and radiological safety of Krsko NPP. This SNSA supervision is performed through inspections, safety evaluations of plant modifications and event analyses as well as with the safety and performance indicators (SPI) which are a valuable data source for plant safety monitoring. In the past SNSA relied on the SPI provided by Krsko NPP and did not have a set of SPI which would be more appropriate for regulatory use. In 2003 SNSA started with preparation of a new set of SPI which would be more suitable for performing the regulatory oversight of the plant. New internal SNSA procedure which is under preparation will define use and evaluation of SPI and will include definitions for the proposed set of SPI. According to the evaluation of SPI values in comparison with the limiting values and/or trending, the procedure will define SNSA response and actions. (author)

System Study: High-Pressure Safety Injection 1998-2014

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schroeder, John Alton [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Risk Assessment and Management Services Dept.

2015-12-01

This report presents an unreliability evaluation of the high-pressure safety injection system (HPSI) at 69 U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. Demand, run hours, and failure data from fiscal year 1998 through 2014 for selected components were obtained from the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) Consolidated Events Database (ICES). The unreliability results are trended for the most recent 10 year period, while yearly estimates for system unreliability are provided for the entire active period. No statistically significant increasing or decreasing trends were identified in the HPSI results.

Guidance on the implementation of a risk based safety performance monitoring system for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sewell, R.T.; Kuritzky, A.S.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

1997-05-01

The principal objective of the present study is to review and evaluate existing Performance Indicator (PI) monitoring programs, and to develop and demonstrate an overall PSA-based methodology and framework for the monitoring and use of risk-based PIs and SIs (Safety Indicator), that would enable: Identification of trends and patterns in safety performance at a specific plant and a population of plants; Assessment of the significance of the trends and patterns; Identification of precursors of accident sequences and safety reductions; Identification of the most critical functional areas of concern, especially as they relate to a defense-in-depth safety philosophy; Comparison of safety performance trends at a plant with those at comparable plants; Incorporation of the PIs and SIs into a risk- and performance-based decision process. To support the overall project objective, it is important that information needs and data collection procedures are clearly outlined. Of key significance in this regard is the premise that a performance monitoring system should not be burdened by an excessive number of low-level PIs that may have only a peripheral relationship to safety. Other supporting objectives of the study include: To identify and discuss other issues pertaining to the practical implementation of a safety performance monitoring system (outlining the databases and algorithms needed); and to demonstrate implementation of the preliminary guidance for monitoring and use of the selected set of PIs and SIs, within the proposed framework, via application to the operating history of a NPP having a PSA and readily available event data

Sediment compaction and pore pressure prediction in deepwater basin of the South China Sea: Estimation from ODP and IODP drilling well data

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Yangbing; Wu, Tuoyu; Sun, Jin; Zhang, Hanyu; Wang, Jiliang; Gao, Jinwei; Chen, Chuanxu

2018-02-01

Overpressure in deepwater basins not only causes serious soft sediment deformation, but also significantly affects the safety of drilling operations. Therefore, prediction of overpressure in sediments has become an important task in deepwater oil exploration and development. In this study, we analyze the drilling data from ODP Leg 184 Sites 1144, 1146, and 1148, and IODP Leg 349 Sites U1431, U1432, U1433, and U1435 to study the sediment compaction and controls in the northern South China Sea. Sedimentation rate, sediment content, distribution area, and buried depth are the factors that influence sediment compaction in the deepwater basin of the South China Sea. Among these factors, the sediment content is the most important. The fitted normal compacted coefficients and mudline porosity for an interval of 50 m shows disciplinary variation versus depth. The pore pressure predicted from different fitted results shows varying overpressure situations. The normal compaction trend from Site 1144 reflects the porosity variation trend in stable deposition basins in the northern South China Sea. The predicted pore pressure shows overpressure at Site 1144, which is attributed to compaction disequilibrium. Nevertheless, the mixed lithology column may influence the predicted over-pressure at Site 1148, which is responsible for the confusing result. Above all, we find that sediment compaction should serve as a proxy for pore pressure in the deepwater basin of the South China Sea.

Numerical and experimental investigation on the performance of safety valves operating with different gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dossena, V.; Marinoni, F.; Bassi, F.; Franchina, N.; Savini, M.

2013-01-01

A detailed analysis of the effect related to the expansion of different gases throughout safety relief valves is carried out both numerically and experimentally. The considered gases are air, argon and ethylene, representative of a wide range of specific heat ratios. A first experimental campaign performed in air and argon on a safety relief valve characterized by connection 1/2″ × 1″ and orifice designation D (diameter 10 mm) according to API 526 showed significant reduction both in disc lift and in exhausted mass flow rate, at the nominal overpressure, when operating with argon. In order to gain a deeper insight into the physics involved and to evaluate the valve behavior with other gases, an extensive numerical testing has been performed by means of an accurate CFD code based on discontinuous Galerkin formulation. Numerical results are at first validated against measurements obtained in air on a 2″ J 3″ safety relief valve proving a remarkable accuracy of the computational method. Then the validated solver is applied on the same computational grid using argon and ethylene as working fluids. The three gases are considered as thermally perfect gases. A critical discussion based on the numerical results allows to clarify the fluid dynamic and physical reasons causing the observed trends both in the opening force and in the discharge coefficient. The main conclusion is that particular care must be taken when a safety valve operates with a fluid characterized by a specific heat ratio greater than the one of the gas used during type testing. -- Highlights: ► Effects of different gases on the discharge capacity and operational characteristics on safety relief valves. ► Influence of different specific heat ratio on safety relief valves discharge coefficient. ► Skilful application of Discontinuous Galerkin CFD solver to safety valves performances prediction

Trends in use of non-medical radiation sources in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Giacomelli, M.; Cesarek, J.; Osojnik, I.

2007-01-01

Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration is the regulatory authority competent also for administrative control in the fields of radiation practices and use of radiation sources in industry and research, with exception in medicine and veterinary medicine. Prior to the adoption of the Act on Protection against Ionizing Radiation and Nuclear Safety the responsible authority was the Health Inspectorate of Republic of Slovenia. The article presents an overview of the use of radiation sources in Slovenia, in industry, research and education. Analysis of the data from abovementioned regulators shall examine trends in use in recent years as number of sources and organizations, and according to the type of their intended use. (author)

The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirko Kämpf

Full Text Available Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic's importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends.

The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y; Kantelhardt, Jan W

2015-01-01

Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic) information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic's importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends.

The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.

2015-01-01

Can online media predict new and emerging trends, since there is a relationship between trends in society and their representation in online systems? While several recent studies have used Google Trends as the leading online information source to answer corresponding research questions, we focus on the online encyclopedia Wikipedia often used for deeper topical reading. Wikipedia grants open access to all traffic data and provides lots of additional (semantic) information in a context network besides single keywords. Specifically, we suggest and study context-normalized and time-dependent measures for a topic’s importance based on page-view time series of Wikipedia articles in different languages and articles related to them by internal links. As an example, we present a study of the recently emerging Big Data market with a focus on the Hadoop ecosystem, and compare the capabilities of Wikipedia versus Google in predicting its popularity and life cycles. To support further applications, we have developed an open web platform to share results of Wikipedia analytics, providing context-rich and language-independent relevance measures for emerging trends. PMID:26720074

78 FR 55775 - Pipeline Safety: Information Collection Activities

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-11

... important tool for identifying safety trends in the hazardous liquid pipeline industry. In a Federal... reference of American Petroleum Institute (API) API 1130 (the industry standard on leak detection) which... requests that volume exiting a system during a controlled event not be reported. PHMSA Response: PHMSA does...

Safety evaluation in the development of medical devices and combination products

CERN Document Server

Gad, Shayne C

2008-01-01

Capturing the growth of the global medical device market in recent years, this practical new guide is essential for all who are responsible for ensuring safety in the use and manufacture of medical devices. It has been extensively updated to reflect significant advances, incorporating combination products and helpful case examples of current real-life problems in the field.The Third Edition explores these key current trends:global device marketscontinually advancing technologythe increasing harmonization of device safety regulation worldwideEach aspect of safety evaluation is considered in ter

Trends in family tourism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heike A. Schänzel

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – Families represent a large and growing market for the tourism industry. Family tourism is driven by the increasing importance placed on promoting family togetherness, keeping family bonds alive and creating family memories. Predictions for the future of family travel are shaped by changes in demography and social structures. With global mobility families are increasingly geographically dispersed and new family markets are emerging. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the trends that shape the understanding of families and family tourism. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines ten trends that the authors as experts in the field identify of importance and significance for the future of family tourism. Findings – What emerges is that the future of family tourism lies in capturing the increasing heterogeneity, fluidity and mobility of the family market. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the understanding about the changes taking place in family tourism and what it means to the tourism industry in the future.

Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, N K; Robey, I F; Gaffney, E A; Gillies, R J; Gatenby, R A; Maini, P K

2012-01-01

Background: Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. Methods: We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. Results: The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1–7.2. Conclusion: Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1–7.2 is most

Predicting the safety and efficacy of buffer therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, N K; Robey, I F; Gaffney, E A; Gillies, R J; Gatenby, R A; Maini, P K

2012-03-27

Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts. We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies. The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1-7.2. Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1-7.2 is most promising.

NH AND Mg INDEX TRENDS IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serven, Jedidiah; Worthey, Guy; Toloba, Elisa; Sanchez-Blazquez, Patricia

2011-01-01

We examine the spectrum in the vicinity of the NH3360 index of Davidge and Clark, which was defined to measure the NH absorption around 3360 A and shows almost no trend with velocity dispersion, unlike other N-sensitive indices, which show a strong trend. Computing the effect of individual elements on the integrated spectrum with synthetic stellar population integrated spectra, we find that, while being well correlated with nitrogen abundance, NH3360 is almost equally well anti-correlated with Mg abundance. This prompts the definition of two new indices, Mg3334, which is mostly sensitive to magnesium, and NH3375, which is mostly sensitive to nitrogen. Rather surprisingly, we find that the new NH3375 index shows a trend versus optical absorption feature indices that is as shallow as the NH3360 index. We hypothesize that the lack of a strong index trend in these near-UV indices is due to the presence of an old metal-poor component of the galactic population. Comparison of observed index trends and those predicted by models shows that a modest fraction of an old, metal-poor stellar population could easily account for the observed flat trend in these near-UV indices while still allowing substantial N abundance increase in the larger galaxies.

Principal trends in ensuring safety in nuclear power plant operation in the CSSR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beranek, J.; Kriz, Z.; Kovar, P.; Macoun, J.

1984-01-01

At present two reactor units of the VVER-440 type industrial nuclear power plant are in operation in Czechoslovakia and another ten units are planned to be commissioned and put in operation by 1990. The operation of these units is carried out in compliance with licences and regulations issued by the State Regulatory Body for Nuclear Safety, a body established within the framework of the Czechoslovak Atomic Energy Commission. Operational nuclear safety assurance is based primarily on compliance with the basic safety concept as conceived in the plant design and on compliance with the requirements and terms stipulated in the course of the licensing process. On this basis, the State supervisory activity concentrates on the quality assurance of components and installations important for nuclear safety, on the quality of operating personnel and on compliance with limits and conditions for safe operation. The paper presents the main requirements stipulated in Regulation No.5 on quality assurance issued by the Czechoslovak Atomic Energy Commission and shows how the regulation is being applied. The conditions and modes of proving compliance with quality assurance programmes during plant implementation (design, fabrication, assembly, commissioning) and plant operation are described. The qualification prerequisites and capability requirements for selected categories of operating personnel as stipulated in the existing regulations are outlined. The experience accumulated by the regulatory body in preparing, examining and supervising the activity of the personnel is described. Consideration is given to the question of operational management, with the emphasis on compliance with the limits and conditions for safe operation and on the procedures for their alteration and for reporting infringements. (author)

Linguistic Preprocessing and Tagging for Problem Report Trend Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Beil, Robert J.; Malin, Jane T.

2012-01-01

Mr. Robert Beil, Systems Engineer at Kennedy Space Center (KSC), requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) develop a prototype tool suite that combines complementary software technology used at Johnson Space Center (JSC) and KSC for problem report preprocessing and semantic tag extraction, to improve input to data mining and trend analysis. This document contains the outcome of the assessment and the Findings, Observations and NESC Recommendations.

Human factors considerations in control room modernization: Trends and personnel performance issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Hara, J.; Stubler, B.; Kramer, J.

1997-01-01

Advanced human-system interface (HSI) technology is being integrated into existing nuclear plants as part of plant modifications and upgrades. The result of this trend is that hybrid HSIs are created, i.e., HSIs containing a mixture of conventional (analog) and advanced (digital) technology. The purpose of the present research is to define the potential effects of hybrid HSIs on personnel performance and plant safety and to develop human factors guidance for safety reviews of them where necessary. In support of this objective, human factors topics associated with hybrid HSIs were identified. A human performance topic is an aspect of hybrid HSIs, such as a design or implementation feature, for which human performance concerns were identified. The topics were then evaluated for their potential significance to plant safety. Twelve topics were identified as potentially safety significant issues, i.e., their human performance concerns have the potential to compromise plant safety. The issues were then prioritized and a subset was selected for design review guidance development. 6 refs

Trends in technology, trade and consumption likely to impact on microbial food safety

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Quested, T.E.; Cook, P.E.; Gorris, L.G.M.; Cole, M.B.

2010-01-01

Current and potential future trends in technology, consumption and trade of food that may impact on food-borne disease are analysed and the key driving factors identified focusing on the European Union and, to a lesser extent, accounting for the United States and global issues. Understanding of

A Trend Model for Alzheimer’s Mortality

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Örjan Hallberg

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In Sweden, mortality rates from Alzheimer’s disease have increased since early 90’s.  In this study, we compared rates reported from 2006-2012 with projected trends determined previously and found a good fit.  The objective of this study was to investigate if increased mortality can be modeled as a single exponential function of time lived in a new environment, where the risk of dying from Alzheimer’s disease has been increased.  The results demonstrated that the exponential model can be used to predict future mortalities for different scenarios, and that it can also project age-specific trends.  We conclude that increasing mortality rates from Alzheimer’s disease seem caused by an environmental change introduced since the 1990’s.  Since similar trend breaks also have been reported for different cancers, responsible authorities should seriously address this problem to pinpoint causative factors.

Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Abul-basher, M M

1985-01-01

Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

Std trends in chengalpattu hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krishnamurthy V

1996-01-01

Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6% were males and 928 (20.4% were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4% in men and Syphillis (29% in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4% ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

Opencast coal mining in India: present status and future trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khare, B.P. [Kakatiya University, Warangal (India)

2007-07-01

This paper discussed the opencast coal mining in India, present status and future trends including technology trends. The opencast coal mines in the coming years will have to switch over more and more to semi continuous and continuous mining. Whatever be the system adopted it should be sustainable to meet the output levels commensurate with environmental protection, safety, health, conservation and economics. It could, therefore, be summed up that the search for new technologies should be based on: (1) use of continuous miners; (2) use of bucket wheel excavators, conveyors, and spreaders; (3) shovel-crusher and conveyor system; and (4) application of high angle conveyors, cross-pit conveyors, and OB bridges. 4 tabs.

Predicting visibility of aircraft.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Watson

Full Text Available Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO. In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration.

Scalable and Cost-Effective Assignment of Mobile Crowdsensing Tasks Based on Profiling Trends and Prediction: The ParticipAct Living Lab Experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Bellavista, Paolo; Corradi, Antonio; Foschini, Luca; Ianniello, Raffaele

2015-07-30

Nowadays, sensor-rich smartphones potentially enable the harvesting of huge amounts of valuable sensing data in urban environments, by opportunistically involving citizens to play the role of mobile virtual sensors to cover Smart City areas of interest. This paper proposes an in-depth study of the challenging technical issues related to the efficient assignment of Mobile Crowd Sensing (MCS) data collection tasks to volunteers in a crowdsensing campaign. In particular, the paper originally describes how to increase the effectiveness of the proposed sensing campaigns through the inclusion of several new facilities, including accurate participant selection algorithms able to profile and predict user mobility patterns, gaming techniques, and timely geo-notification. The reported results show the feasibility of exploiting profiling trends/prediction techniques from volunteers' behavior; moreover, they quantitatively compare different MCS task assignment strategies based on large-scale and real MCS data campaigns run in the ParticipAct living lab, an ongoing MCS real-world experiment that involved more than 170 students of the University of Bologna for more than one year.

Scalable and Cost-Effective Assignment of Mobile Crowdsensing Tasks Based on Profiling Trends and Prediction: The ParticipAct Living Lab Experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paolo Bellavista

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, sensor-rich smartphones potentially enable the harvesting of huge amounts of valuable sensing data in urban environments, by opportunistically involving citizens to play the role of mobile virtual sensors to cover Smart City areas of interest. This paper proposes an in-depth study of the challenging technical issues related to the efficient assignment of Mobile Crowd Sensing (MCS data collection tasks to volunteers in a crowdsensing campaign. In particular, the paper originally describes how to increase the effectiveness of the proposed sensing campaigns through the inclusion of several new facilities, including accurate participant selection algorithms able to profile and predict user mobility patterns, gaming techniques, and timely geo-notification. The reported results show the feasibility of exploiting profiling trends/prediction techniques from volunteers’ behavior; moreover, they quantitatively compare different MCS task assignment strategies based on large-scale and real MCS data campaigns run in the ParticipAct living lab, an ongoing MCS real-world experiment that involved more than 170 students of the University of Bologna for more than one year.

New Approach for Nuclear Safety and Regulation - Application of Complexity Theory and System Dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Kwang Sik; Choi, Young Sung; Han, Kyu Hyun; Kim, Do Hyoung

2007-01-01

The methodology being used today for assuring nuclear safety is based on analytic approaches. In the 21st century, holistic approaches are increasingly used over traditional analytic method that is based on reductionism. Presently, it leads to interest in complexity theory or system dynamics. In this paper, we review global academic trends, social environments, concept of nuclear safety and regulatory frameworks for nuclear safety. We propose a new safety paradigm and also regulatory approach using holistic approach and system dynamics now in fashion

Safety behaviors and sleep effort predict sleep disturbance and fatigue in an outpatient sample with anxiety and depressive disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Fairholme, Christopher P; Manber, Rachel

2014-03-01

Theoretical and empirical support for the role of dysfunctional beliefs, safety behaviors, and increased sleep effort in the maintenance of insomnia has begun to accumulate. It is not yet known how these factors predict sleep disturbance and fatigue occurring in the context of anxiety and mood disorders. It was hypothesized that these three insomnia-specific cognitive-behavioral factors would be uniquely associated with insomnia and fatigue among patients with emotional disorders after adjusting for current symptoms of anxiety and depression and trait levels of neuroticism and extraversion. Outpatients with a current anxiety or mood disorder (N = 63) completed self-report measures including the Dysfunctional Beliefs About Sleep Scale (DBAS), Sleep-Related Safety Behaviors Questionnaire (SRBQ), Glasgow Sleep Effort Scale (GSES), Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), NEO Five-Factor Inventory (FFI), and the 21-item Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS). Multivariate path analysis was used to evaluate study hypotheses. SRBQ (B = .60, p relationship between safety behaviors and fatigue was strongest among individuals with greater levels of dysfunctional beliefs. Findings are consistent with cognitive behavioral models of insomnia and suggest that sleep-specific factors might be important treatment targets among patients with anxiety and depressive disorders with disturbed sleep. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in eastern Slovakia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Zeleňáková

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The availability of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trends of hydrological time series is investigated in this study. The aim is to analyse trends of low flows at streams in eastern Slovakia, namely Poprad, Hornád, Bodva, Bodrog river basins. The article presents a methodology for prediction of hydrological drought based on statistical testing of low stream flows by non-parametric statistical test. The main objective is to identify low flow trends in the selected 63 river stations in eastern Slovakia. The stations with human impacts are also evaluated. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test has been used to detect trends in hydrological time series. Statistically significant trends have been determined from the trend lines for the whole territory of eastern Slovakia. The results indicate that the observed changes in Slovakian river basins do not have a clearly defined trend.

Nuclear Safety Review for the Year 2010

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-07-01

The Agency, as a leading organization for promoting international cooperation among its Member States, is in a unique position to observe global trends, issues and challenges in nuclear safety and security through a wide variety of activities related to the establishment of safety standards and security guidelines and their application. The contents of this Nuclear Safety Review reflect the emerging nuclear safety trends, issues and challenges for 2010, as well as recapitulate the Agency's activities intended to further strengthen the global nuclear safety and security framework in all areas of nuclear, radiation, waste and transport safety. The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, caused by the extraordinary disasters of the earthquake and tsunamis that struck Japan on 11 March 2011, continues to be assessed. As this report focuses on developments in 2010, the accident and its implications are not addressed here, but will be addressed in future reports of the Agency. The international nuclear community maintained a high level of safety performance in 2010. Nuclear power plant safety performance remained high, and indicated an improved trend in the number of emergency shutdowns as well in the level of energy available during these shutdowns. In addition, more States explored or expanded their interests in nuclear power programmes, and more faced the challenge of establishing the required regulatory infrastructure, regulatory supervision and safety management over nuclear installations and the use of ionizing radiation. Issues surrounding radiation protection and radioecology continued as trends in 2010. For example, increased public awareness of exposure to and environmental impacts of naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) as well as nuclear legacy sites has led to increased public concern. In addition, human resources in radiation protection and radioecology have been lost as a result of retirement and of the migration of experts to

Promoting safety voice with safety-specific transformational leadership: the mediating role of two dimensions of trust.

Science.gov (United States)

Conchie, Stacey M; Taylor, Paul J; Donald, Ian J

2012-01-01

Although safety-specific transformational leadership is known to encourage employee safety voice behaviors, less is known about what makes this style of leadership effective. We tested a model that links safety-specific transformational leadership to safety voice through various dimensions of trust. Data from 150 supervisor-employee dyads from the United Kingdom oil industry supported our predictions that the effects of safety-specific transformational leadership are sequentially mediated by affect-based trust beliefs and disclosure trust intentions. Moreover, we found that reliance trust intentions moderated the effect of disclosure: employees' disclosure intentions mediated the effects of affect-based trust on safety voice behaviors only when employees' intention to rely on their leader was moderate to high. These findings suggest that leaders seeking to encourage safety voice behaviors should go beyond "good reason" arguments and develop affective bonds with their employees.

Safety climate and injuries: an examination of theoretical and empirical relationships.